WEBVTT - Ron Brownstein & Miranda Green 0:00:00.680 --> 0:00:04.200 Hi, I'm Molly John Fast and this is Fast Politics, 0:00:04.400 --> 0:00:07.160 where we discussed the top political headlines with some of 0:00:07.200 --> 0:00:11.639 today's best minds. And Donald Trump says, as he said 0:00:11.760 --> 0:00:15.000 many times before, that he will close the Department of Education. 0:00:15.440 --> 0:00:18.200 We have such a great show for you today. CNN 0:00:18.280 --> 0:00:22.720 political analyst Ron Brownstein tells us what he sees when 0:00:22.720 --> 0:00:25.840 he crunches these numbers from the twenty twenty four election. 0:00:26.160 --> 0:00:30.080 Then we'll talk to investigative reporter Miranda Green about pink 0:00:30.120 --> 0:00:34.040 slime newspapers that were mailed to voters in swing districts. 0:00:34.240 --> 0:00:37.800 These newspapers might have swayed the election. But first the. 0:00:37.720 --> 0:00:43.560 News Somali, we are hearing the first rounds of Trump appointments. 0:00:43.880 --> 0:00:46.879 Let us hear the murderer's row of stupid and what 0:00:46.920 --> 0:00:47.680 you're seeing here. 0:00:48.000 --> 0:00:52.640 So again what you see from these appointments, and the 0:00:52.680 --> 0:00:55.880 first two I think are very instructive. Well, the first 0:00:55.880 --> 0:00:58.800 one was Susie Wiles. She will be the first ever 0:00:58.920 --> 0:01:03.520 female chief of staff. So that's a girl boss, if 0:01:03.560 --> 0:01:07.000 you can use the term ironically. But the two biggest 0:01:07.040 --> 0:01:12.720 appointments so far are Tom Holman, the borderss are and 0:01:12.880 --> 0:01:17.000 Steven Miller, and both Tom Holman and Steven Miller. Tom 0:01:17.040 --> 0:01:20.720 Holman used to head ICE, has been involved in deportation stuff, 0:01:20.720 --> 0:01:24.280 and he is most famous for musing before the election 0:01:24.600 --> 0:01:28.240 to sixty Minutes that you don't have to do family separation, 0:01:28.760 --> 0:01:31.960 you can just deport the entire family. And I think 0:01:32.000 --> 0:01:35.559 it's important to realize that these two nominations show pretty 0:01:35.560 --> 0:01:38.800 clearly where Trump World is going, and it's the thing 0:01:39.400 --> 0:01:44.800 that Republicans held signs up about during the Republican National Convention, 0:01:44.920 --> 0:01:48.680 which is mass deportation. Look, there are other picks that 0:01:48.880 --> 0:01:52.080 Trump has made that will get past Senate confirmation, people 0:01:52.160 --> 0:01:55.880 like Marco Rubio to be Secretary of State. Another pick 0:01:55.960 --> 0:02:00.000 will be Lee Zelden for EPA. He is a climate denier. 0:02:00.040 --> 0:02:03.840 But I want to talk about Holman and Miller because 0:02:04.280 --> 0:02:06.640 this is a real clear sign of what they're going 0:02:06.720 --> 0:02:08.640 to do when they first come into office. And it's 0:02:08.720 --> 0:02:11.959 going to be deportation, it's going to be workplace right, 0:02:12.280 --> 0:02:14.960 it's going to be camps. It certainly I hope that 0:02:15.080 --> 0:02:17.600 it won't be any of those things, but this seems 0:02:17.639 --> 0:02:21.400 like a pretty clear sign that that's where we're going. 0:02:21.480 --> 0:02:23.320 And I just want to pause for a second and 0:02:23.360 --> 0:02:28.160 realize that they were a huge swing of Latino voters 0:02:28.240 --> 0:02:31.280 who voted for Trump. Tom Holman, you know, he is 0:02:31.360 --> 0:02:34.680 coming for these Latinos, and you're going to have to 0:02:34.800 --> 0:02:36.480 just we're going to all have to hope that he's 0:02:36.560 --> 0:02:41.960 checking people's you know, legal illegal border status, because these 0:02:42.000 --> 0:02:46.040 people are not known for their specificity or their care 0:02:46.400 --> 0:02:49.840 in the assignment, and it seems highly likely that a 0:02:49.880 --> 0:02:52.240 lot of people are going to get swept up in 0:02:52.280 --> 0:02:54.880 these sweepes. It's quite scary. Also, it's just going to 0:02:54.960 --> 0:02:59.840 be very logistically difficult to do and of course morally horrifying. 0:03:00.120 --> 0:03:03.440 So stay tuned for this and we'll definitely see more 0:03:03.480 --> 0:03:03.799 on this. 0:03:04.280 --> 0:03:07.519 So Mai Lee Zilden, who we remember as running against 0:03:07.639 --> 0:03:12.960 Kathy Hokel on Crime, Crime Crime, is also really really 0:03:13.000 --> 0:03:16.560 psychotically obsessed with climate change not being real. What are 0:03:16.560 --> 0:03:17.079 you seeing here? 0:03:17.360 --> 0:03:21.160 So I think an interesting pick. You'll remember Scott Pruitt 0:03:21.280 --> 0:03:24.760 had it in twenty sixteen. He resigned after being the 0:03:24.800 --> 0:03:29.919 subject of seventeen federal investigations. It's a non agency for Trump. 0:03:30.000 --> 0:03:33.000 He oversaw the rollback of more than one hundred environmental 0:03:33.080 --> 0:03:38.160 rules when he was last president. So again, Zelden is 0:03:38.200 --> 0:03:41.480 here just because it's approach for him and he doesn't 0:03:41.520 --> 0:03:45.080 believe the climate change is real. This will be another 0:03:45.200 --> 0:03:49.400 place where the federal government will either just not do anything, or, 0:03:49.760 --> 0:03:53.720 more likely in this case, try to make it easier 0:03:53.760 --> 0:03:58.640 for polluters. We have oil and gas companies asking Trump 0:03:58.840 --> 0:04:02.560 not to leave the Paris Climate Accord. This is where 0:04:02.560 --> 0:04:05.920 we are at this moment. We have ex on Mobile 0:04:06.440 --> 0:04:11.320 warning Donald Trump not to pull out of the Paris Agreement. 0:04:11.640 --> 0:04:14.600 I have a hard time imagining x on Mobile gives 0:04:14.680 --> 0:04:19.440 a fuck about anything, but I just want to point 0:04:19.480 --> 0:04:22.080 out this is how far down the rabbit hole we are. 0:04:22.400 --> 0:04:25.760 Yeah, not good, So byan scratch my head, at least 0:04:25.800 --> 0:04:29.080 maybe you can make sense this. I can actually Okay, 0:04:29.080 --> 0:04:32.880 good Mike Hookaby for Arkansas governor who once wrote a 0:04:32.880 --> 0:04:36.360 book about killing yourself with a fork and knife about 0:04:36.360 --> 0:04:39.240 our nutrition system and then said fuck that I'm gonna 0:04:39.240 --> 0:04:41.719 get fat again, and this was a bullshit book. He's 0:04:41.720 --> 0:04:44.520 going to be a besser to Israel. Make it makes sense. 0:04:45.120 --> 0:04:48.919 Yes, I could actually make this make sense because this 0:04:49.080 --> 0:04:53.080 is like the fascinating grift of Trump World. Mike Huckabee 0:04:53.120 --> 0:04:56.080 has been leading tours to Israel for years. 0:04:56.360 --> 0:04:58.359 All that I need you to make something makes sense 0:04:58.360 --> 0:05:01.040 for me, you being the wish What are the two 0:05:01.120 --> 0:05:05.120 of us? Yes, Huckabee, does it sound Hebrew to be No. 0:05:05.240 --> 0:05:09.320 He's not a Jew, but you'll remember that religious people, 0:05:10.040 --> 0:05:14.679 very religious, you know, Zealid love Israel. So in fact, 0:05:15.040 --> 0:05:18.200 I'm going to read a testimonial from Blue Diamond Travel 0:05:18.240 --> 0:05:21.880 Experiences our prayer as many many more Christians can travel 0:05:21.880 --> 0:05:24.680 with Mike and Janet Huckabee and feel the presence of 0:05:24.720 --> 0:05:27.440 our Great King in just the same way we did. 0:05:27.720 --> 0:05:31.719 I assume that this will be very good for his 0:05:32.000 --> 0:05:38.000 tour guide business. Being the ambassador, Trump has really leveraged 0:05:38.200 --> 0:05:45.120 the Christians obsession with Israel into his own weird using 0:05:45.360 --> 0:05:51.599 Israel to whatever. And now Mike Huckabee will figure into 0:05:51.640 --> 0:05:54.760 this hole. While this, by the way, his twenty twenty 0:05:54.800 --> 0:05:59.400 four Israel tour is called Unveil the Spiritual Wonders. 0:06:00.080 --> 0:06:02.120 Oh, I had that on my to do list for 0:06:02.560 --> 0:06:03.479 next year. That's good. 0:06:03.960 --> 0:06:08.080 An unforgettable journey through Israel, blending faith, culture, and history 0:06:08.160 --> 0:06:15.960 into a unique tapestry. There you go. Ron Brownstein is 0:06:16.000 --> 0:06:19.760 a senior political analyst for CNN and a senior editor 0:06:19.760 --> 0:06:24.920 at the Atlantic. Welcome to Fast politics. Ron Brownstein, he 0:06:25.279 --> 0:06:29.440 molly anything new goal nothing. Absolutely. After this election, I 0:06:29.480 --> 0:06:31.480 was like, I have to talk to Ron. Ron has 0:06:31.560 --> 0:06:33.520 to explain to me what happened. I just wrote a 0:06:33.600 --> 0:06:35.719 piece about all this stuff I got wrong for very 0:06:35.760 --> 0:06:38.599 fair about this election. I did not get this right. 0:06:38.720 --> 0:06:41.720 But you are much more harder than I am, So 0:06:41.960 --> 0:06:43.920 explain to us what happened. 0:06:44.440 --> 0:06:45.280 You know, I'm not sure. 0:06:45.320 --> 0:06:48.480 I was much smarter, and I got one big thing wrong, 0:06:48.520 --> 0:06:50.920 which we will talk about in a minute. But I mean, 0:06:51.080 --> 0:06:54.120 the most abnormal thing about this election, the most shocking 0:06:54.160 --> 0:06:57.120 thing about this election was how normal it was. I mean, 0:06:57.200 --> 0:07:01.840 Donald Trump obviously is not a normal candidate, but to 0:07:01.960 --> 0:07:06.320 a large extent, the electorate treated him that way. And 0:07:06.560 --> 0:07:11.480 you had the normal hydraulics in place, which is in 0:07:11.520 --> 0:07:14.840 a two party system, when the view of one party 0:07:14.880 --> 0:07:18.320 goes down, the other party rises, and you know, there 0:07:18.320 --> 0:07:20.240 are always a lot of things going on, and we 0:07:20.320 --> 0:07:23.160 have to unpack and understand what happened with young men 0:07:23.280 --> 0:07:27.960 and Latino men in particular. But Harris underperformed across the 0:07:28.000 --> 0:07:32.200 board demographically and geographically. She did not have the gaens 0:07:32.360 --> 0:07:35.600 among college white women that you would have expected. She 0:07:35.640 --> 0:07:39.160 did not have the gains among young women that you 0:07:39.200 --> 0:07:41.720 would have expected. She did not have the gains in 0:07:41.720 --> 0:07:45.720 suburbia that seem very much possible after the twenty twenty 0:07:45.760 --> 0:07:50.640 two election. And what you saw was a very normal 0:07:50.880 --> 0:07:54.680 pattern when you have an outgoing president who is unpopular, 0:07:54.880 --> 0:07:57.600 who is either running for reelection or stepping aside. In 0:07:57.720 --> 0:08:00.880 either case, the vast majority of pepeople who are unhappy 0:08:00.920 --> 0:08:03.360 with that president's performance vote for the other side. So 0:08:03.640 --> 0:08:06.600 what did that mean. Well, sixty percent of voters in 0:08:06.680 --> 0:08:10.200 the exepole said they disapproved of Biden's performance. It was 0:08:10.280 --> 0:08:13.320 even worse than the number in twenty twenty two, and 0:08:13.440 --> 0:08:14.760 eighty two percent. 0:08:14.480 --> 0:08:16.680 Of those disapprovers voted for Trump. 0:08:17.120 --> 0:08:21.320 Seventy percent of voters said that the economy was in 0:08:21.360 --> 0:08:23.800 bad shape, it was only in fair or poor condition. 0:08:24.360 --> 0:08:27.640 Seventy percent of those people voted for Trump. That's his vote, 0:08:27.680 --> 0:08:31.160 that's his forty nine point something that'll probably end up 0:08:31.160 --> 0:08:33.680 getting when this is all counted. He's just over fifty. 0:08:33.720 --> 0:08:36.840 Now he possibly, maybe more likely than not, is going 0:08:36.880 --> 0:08:39.679 to fall just under fifty. But if you look and 0:08:39.720 --> 0:08:43.840 compare to twenty twenty two, Molly, the share of people 0:08:43.920 --> 0:08:47.360 who said the economy was in bad shape but voted 0:08:47.520 --> 0:08:52.520 for Whitmer or Shapiro or Mark Kelly or Rafael Warnock 0:08:52.840 --> 0:08:56.600 in twenty two was much higher than the share of 0:08:56.640 --> 0:08:58.920 people who said the economy was in bad shape and 0:08:59.000 --> 0:09:02.559 voted for Harris in those same states. And what that 0:09:02.720 --> 0:09:08.080 says to me was that people associate and attribute the 0:09:08.120 --> 0:09:12.840 president control over national economic policy, and it simply was 0:09:13.000 --> 0:09:15.599 less possible for her to run away from the discontent 0:09:15.679 --> 0:09:18.920 over that. Primarily, other things mattered in you know, the 0:09:18.960 --> 0:09:23.320 border mattered, Prime mattered, But primarily it was harder for 0:09:23.360 --> 0:09:27.720 her to escape the undertow of discontent about the economy 0:09:27.720 --> 0:09:30.319 in Biden's performance than it was for Democratic candidates in 0:09:30.360 --> 0:09:33.400 twenty two, and for that matter, even to some extent 0:09:33.440 --> 0:09:36.520 in twenty twenty four. You know, people like splocking. 0:09:37.080 --> 0:09:39.439 Yes, I want you to talk us through this, because 0:09:39.440 --> 0:09:42.080 I looked at those numbers and you had people I 0:09:42.120 --> 0:09:46.240 feel like, the best example here is the example of 0:09:46.440 --> 0:09:50.720 Carrie Lake in Arizona. You had people vote for Trump 0:09:51.080 --> 0:09:55.880 and then not bother to fill in the bubbles for 0:09:56.000 --> 0:09:58.520 carry Lake, who ran as a mini Trump. 0:09:58.559 --> 0:10:02.160 So explain that to me my basic feeling about this. 0:10:02.679 --> 0:10:04.760 You know, there are people who point to Trump having 0:10:04.840 --> 0:10:08.160 this unique connection with his voters. And I am sure 0:10:08.200 --> 0:10:11.560 that is true, and that was not able to be replicated. 0:10:11.559 --> 0:10:14.600 And in many cases the Democrats in the Senate raises 0:10:14.679 --> 0:10:18.440 did not get appreciably more votes than Harris did, but 0:10:18.480 --> 0:10:21.880 the Republican got appreciably less than Trump did. Certainly, I 0:10:21.920 --> 0:10:24.200 think that was the case in Wisconsin. 0:10:24.040 --> 0:10:27.480 And Michigan and Arizona and Nevada. 0:10:27.520 --> 0:10:30.079 So I actually look at it a little differently. I mean, 0:10:30.120 --> 0:10:31.840 I go back to the point I made a minute ago, 0:10:31.960 --> 0:10:34.360 which is that, for example, if you look in twenty 0:10:34.400 --> 0:10:37.600 twenty two, people who had a negative view of the economy, 0:10:38.000 --> 0:10:40.960 John Fetterman in twenty twenty two lost them in Pennsylvania, right, 0:10:41.000 --> 0:10:43.120 he lost them, but he lost them by eighteen points. 0:10:43.320 --> 0:10:45.360 People who had a negative view of the economy. This 0:10:45.440 --> 0:10:47.959 time in Pennsylvania, Kamala Harris lost them by. 0:10:47.920 --> 0:10:50.640 Thirty seven points. Okay, in Nevada. 0:10:50.760 --> 0:10:52.400 Last time, people who are in a negative view of 0:10:52.440 --> 0:10:54.920 the economy, Catherine court has Master lost them by twenty 0:10:54.920 --> 0:10:58.680 six points. This time Harris lost them by forty one points. 0:10:58.720 --> 0:11:01.760 And then you kind of look at it horizontally. In 0:11:01.840 --> 0:11:04.839 this election, Rosen didn't lose people who are negative on 0:11:04.880 --> 0:11:07.000 the economy by quite as much as Harris did. And 0:11:07.040 --> 0:11:10.560 to me, that's the difference is that as the presidential candidate, 0:11:11.240 --> 0:11:15.720 you are held accountable greater than anybody else. 0:11:16.000 --> 0:11:19.360 And this is really we're only here for my own edification. 0:11:19.679 --> 0:11:22.480 I understand this is a podcast, but this is a 0:11:22.559 --> 0:11:29.199 question I want answered. Doesn't it seem like Harris is overperforming? 0:11:29.520 --> 0:11:33.839 For example, so originally you had this Biden map before 0:11:33.840 --> 0:11:36.400 he dropped out, which showed him losing. This is the 0:11:36.480 --> 0:11:38.920 famous pod Bros. Where they had a map that showed 0:11:38.960 --> 0:11:43.240 him losing four hundred electoral votes, right, which I didn't 0:11:43.280 --> 0:11:46.040 even know was possible, but it is, turns out and 0:11:46.080 --> 0:11:49.440 then Harris jumps in and she reversed the tide, right, 0:11:49.520 --> 0:11:53.440 So you see the down ballot candidates actually do better, 0:11:53.720 --> 0:11:56.559 and they do better in swing states where the campaign 0:11:56.640 --> 0:11:59.760 has taken over the airwaves. So that makes the case 0:11:59.800 --> 0:12:02.840 that a Harris did actually help and b that the 0:12:02.920 --> 0:12:06.120 campaign did actually help, Which gets me to my next thought, 0:12:06.240 --> 0:12:08.840 which is, does this mean that Donald Trump is just 0:12:08.960 --> 0:12:13.360 singularly powerful and that it's not so much about the 0:12:13.440 --> 0:12:17.760 Republican brand or the Democratic brand, but merely about the incredible, 0:12:18.000 --> 0:12:19.840 unheard of power of Trump. 0:12:20.120 --> 0:12:23.880 So to your first point, I think it is unequivocal 0:12:24.000 --> 0:12:26.319 that Harris did better than Biden would have done. I 0:12:26.360 --> 0:12:29.280 mean I talked to one political scientist who said that 0:12:29.360 --> 0:12:33.199 based on Biden's approval, the right track, wrong track, and 0:12:33.440 --> 0:12:37.640 the perceptions of the economy, that his model would have 0:12:37.720 --> 0:12:38.520 had a six. 0:12:38.320 --> 0:12:40.600 Point popular vote loss for the incumbent. 0:12:40.960 --> 0:12:42.959 Harris is going to end up losing by somewhere between 0:12:42.960 --> 0:12:46.560 one point five and two points. What I think I 0:12:46.679 --> 0:12:49.520 got wrong the most, and a lot of people got 0:12:49.520 --> 0:12:53.160 wrong the most, was that the twenty twenty two model 0:12:53.400 --> 0:12:57.120 turned out to be not quite as replicable. 0:12:56.600 --> 0:12:58.079 In twenty four as of the period. 0:12:58.080 --> 0:12:59.480 And what I mean by that if you look at 0:12:59.520 --> 0:13:03.520 twenty twenty in the states where both sides weren't spending money, 0:13:03.600 --> 0:13:06.440 whether they were red states like Texas and Florida or 0:13:06.480 --> 0:13:09.040 blue states like California and New York. In twenty two, 0:13:09.360 --> 0:13:12.800 Republicans improved in those states, which is what you would 0:13:12.800 --> 0:13:15.920 expect when sixty five percent of the country thinks we're 0:13:15.960 --> 0:13:18.760 on the wrong track and the president's approval rating is low. 0:13:19.000 --> 0:13:21.200 But what Democrats were able to do in twenty two 0:13:21.800 --> 0:13:25.520 was basically quarantine the swing state and in the states 0:13:25.559 --> 0:13:30.640 where they ran a full scale campaign Wittmer, Shapiro, Evers, 0:13:30.760 --> 0:13:35.560 Mark Kelly, Katie Hobbs, John Fetterman, Raphael Warnock. They ran 0:13:36.000 --> 0:13:39.679 vastly better than Democrats did in the non competitive state. Okay, 0:13:39.720 --> 0:13:42.559 fast forward to twenty four. Right, fast forward to twenty four, 0:13:42.720 --> 0:13:46.120 The same thing happens in the non competitive states. New 0:13:46.200 --> 0:13:50.280 Jersey gets worse, Arizona gets worse, Florida gets worse, Texas 0:13:50.320 --> 0:13:52.599 gets worse. You know, whether it's a blue state or 0:13:52.640 --> 0:13:55.840 a red state, when you're dealing with a forty percent 0:13:55.880 --> 0:13:59.120 approval rating for the outgoing president, they all get worse. Now, 0:13:59.160 --> 0:14:01.600 what do we look in side the quarantine line in 0:14:01.720 --> 0:14:05.480 the swing states? It works to some extent. Harris doesn't 0:14:05.520 --> 0:14:08.920 deteriorate in them as much as she does outside of 0:14:08.920 --> 0:14:11.840 the swing states, but she doesn't run nearly as well. 0:14:11.840 --> 0:14:15.080 The differential isn't nearly as big as it was in 0:14:15.120 --> 0:14:17.880 twenty two for Whitmer and Shapiro and Ebrs and Warnock 0:14:18.000 --> 0:14:22.080 and Kelly, and the undertow kind of seeps in. 0:14:22.280 --> 0:14:24.880 You know, the quarantine. The moat doesn't work. 0:14:24.920 --> 0:14:28.560 The quarantine doesn't work, As I said, even in those states. 0:14:28.880 --> 0:14:31.440 To me, like, out of all the numbers I've looked at, 0:14:31.480 --> 0:14:34.000 the one that really jumps out at me is that 0:14:34.040 --> 0:14:40.240 in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, significantly more of the 0:14:40.320 --> 0:14:44.120 voters who are negative on the economy voted against Harris 0:14:44.520 --> 0:14:47.120 than voted against the Democratic candidates in twenty two. We 0:14:47.160 --> 0:14:49.200 can argue about why that is. You know, a lot 0:14:49.200 --> 0:14:53.280 of factors probably went into that, including Trump's improving image, which. 0:14:53.080 --> 0:14:54.080 We should talk about. 0:14:54.120 --> 0:14:56.320 But a big part of it, I think is that 0:14:56.680 --> 0:15:01.160 you just can't escape that verdict as the president. And 0:15:01.200 --> 0:15:03.880 the fact that she declined everywhere, the fact that the 0:15:04.000 --> 0:15:07.520 urban centers decline, the inner suburbs decline, the outer suburbs decline, 0:15:07.560 --> 0:15:10.000 the rural places decline. They all declined by about the 0:15:10.000 --> 0:15:12.320 same amount. I wrote this the Center for Rural Studies, 0:15:12.480 --> 0:15:15.240 which is a think tank. They have a classification system 0:15:15.240 --> 0:15:18.480 that categorizes all counties in six groupings, from the most 0:15:18.600 --> 0:15:21.880 urban to the most rural. They all declined by about 0:15:21.920 --> 0:15:24.920 the same amount. That is not something that is about 0:15:25.240 --> 0:15:29.520 messaging or positioning. That is about a common national experience, 0:15:29.600 --> 0:15:33.680 a shared national verdict, which is inflati, which is inflation 0:15:33.840 --> 0:15:35.920 above all, and maybe a little bit of the border 0:15:35.960 --> 0:15:37.000 and crime, but of inflation. 0:15:37.720 --> 0:15:41.520 I mean it seems like that's an anxiety about implanturing, right, yes. 0:15:41.400 --> 0:15:43.840 More than anything else. Absolutely, I think what was it? 0:15:43.880 --> 0:15:45.680 Forty six percent of people in the exitpos said they 0:15:45.720 --> 0:15:47.200 were worse off than they were four years ago, and 0:15:47.240 --> 0:15:48.960 over eighty percent of them voted for Trump. I mean, 0:15:49.080 --> 0:15:51.160 that's kind of the heart of the election right there. 0:15:51.280 --> 0:15:54.600 Doesn't that mean that Trump has more power as a candidate? 0:15:54.640 --> 0:15:56.880 I mean, isn't that what that is? His ability to 0:15:57.000 --> 0:15:59.400 appeal to a broad swath. 0:16:00.120 --> 0:16:03.400 I would say his ability to turn out people inclined 0:16:03.440 --> 0:16:07.400 to support him is his superpower. But I think equally 0:16:07.480 --> 0:16:12.360 critical was that the cross pressure of the economy caused 0:16:12.400 --> 0:16:13.640 a lot of voters who. 0:16:13.520 --> 0:16:15.640 Remain hasard Trump to vote for him. 0:16:15.680 --> 0:16:18.240 Anyway, It's worth noting a couple of these between the 0:16:18.240 --> 0:16:21.120 exit polls and votecasts, which are two major sources right 0:16:21.160 --> 0:16:23.560 of people's attitudes as they were voting, fifty five percent 0:16:23.600 --> 0:16:26.000 said he was too extreme, fifty five percent said they 0:16:26.000 --> 0:16:28.400 were he would lead the country in an authoritarian direction. 0:16:28.560 --> 0:16:31.200 Two thirds almost said they wanted the abortion to remain 0:16:31.280 --> 0:16:34.480 legal in all most circumstances. Fifty five fifty six percent 0:16:34.480 --> 0:16:37.720 majority said they opposed mass deportation, and roughly that many 0:16:37.800 --> 0:16:40.520 said they want the government to do more to provide 0:16:40.560 --> 0:16:43.160 access to healthcare, all of which they're not going to 0:16:43.200 --> 0:16:46.200 get with Trump. And the reason he won is because 0:16:46.240 --> 0:16:49.480 there was a substantial slice of voters in each of 0:16:49.520 --> 0:16:53.280 those questions who express negative views about Trump who voted 0:16:53.320 --> 0:16:55.520 for him. Anyway, Here, I'm going to give you the 0:16:55.560 --> 0:16:58.320 world premiere of something that will be in my Atlantic 0:16:58.360 --> 0:17:02.200 column later this week. Voters who said abortion should be 0:17:02.280 --> 0:17:06.160 legal in all or most circumstances. Okay, pro choice voters 0:17:06.280 --> 0:17:09.399 but were negative on the economy said the economy was 0:17:09.440 --> 0:17:10.399 only fair or poor. 0:17:10.680 --> 0:17:13.800 How do you think they voted? Trump won? And this 0:17:13.960 --> 0:17:16.480 was a big group. This is over one. 0:17:16.400 --> 0:17:19.879 Third of the electorate said they were pro choice but 0:17:19.960 --> 0:17:21.399 the economy was fair poor. 0:17:21.440 --> 0:17:22.440 Trump won them. 0:17:22.480 --> 0:17:26.280 Wow? Is that because he just was able to neutralize 0:17:26.280 --> 0:17:29.720 the issue by saying that he wanted to throw it 0:17:29.720 --> 0:17:32.320 back to the States and then just shutting it down. 0:17:32.560 --> 0:17:35.159 Some of that and some of that. 0:17:35.320 --> 0:17:38.280 The economy mattered more to them the way I phrased it. 0:17:38.359 --> 0:17:40.600 And this is not the first time this has happened. 0:17:40.760 --> 0:17:43.280 This was what happened to Carter with Reagae, It's what 0:17:43.320 --> 0:17:46.080 happened to George H. W. Bush with Clinton. If people 0:17:46.160 --> 0:17:50.400 are dissatisfied with the status quo, stability is the risk 0:17:50.640 --> 0:17:55.399 people view continuing along the track of an unacceptable present 0:17:55.560 --> 0:17:59.160 to be a greater risk than leaping into an unpredictable future. 0:17:59.280 --> 0:18:03.920 And Trump, again, this is a well trod dynamic. The 0:18:04.359 --> 0:18:07.359 shocking part is that it applied to Trump. You know, 0:18:07.480 --> 0:18:11.000 I mean that Trump got all of the traditional benefits. 0:18:11.119 --> 0:18:13.880 He recumbent, and he's someone to try to overthrow the government, 0:18:13.920 --> 0:18:17.240 and he has ninety four felony indictments and convictions. 0:18:16.880 --> 0:18:19.159 And adjudicated sexual assault and all of that. 0:18:19.359 --> 0:18:21.560 And yet if you kind of look at the numbers 0:18:21.560 --> 0:18:24.119 and didn't have his name on it, it would be like, humph, 0:18:24.160 --> 0:18:26.320 this is what the out party gets. 0:18:26.400 --> 0:18:27.879 And you know, maybe part of that. 0:18:28.240 --> 0:18:29.879 And this is where I think there's going to be 0:18:29.920 --> 0:18:33.000 a lot of second guessing about some of the Democratic 0:18:33.080 --> 0:18:36.760 strategy in twenty three and twenty four. His favorability was 0:18:36.840 --> 0:18:39.320 much higher in the electorate in twenty four than it 0:18:39.320 --> 0:18:43.880 wasn't twenty two. His retrospective job approval was over fifty percent. 0:18:44.280 --> 0:18:45.080 That's insane. 0:18:45.560 --> 0:18:49.840 And that is pretty striking given everything else. A big 0:18:49.920 --> 0:18:53.119 part of that is that voters, as we've talked about before, 0:18:53.600 --> 0:18:55.640 you could see this happening all the way through twenty 0:18:55.680 --> 0:18:59.119 three and twenty four. Voters were judging Trump retrospectively through 0:18:59.240 --> 0:19:02.000 the lens of what they didn't like currently about Biden, 0:19:02.359 --> 0:19:05.640 primarily inflating and maybe the border. But it also meant 0:19:05.640 --> 0:19:07.960 that all of the other things they didn't like about Trump, 0:19:08.000 --> 0:19:10.480 they kept his approval rating from ever hitting fifty while 0:19:10.480 --> 0:19:13.280 he was president, were kind of fading in their memory, 0:19:13.359 --> 0:19:16.359 and Democrats didn't really do a great job of reminding 0:19:16.400 --> 0:19:18.320 them of that until the end. I mean, let's just 0:19:18.359 --> 0:19:21.520 consider here, this was the only president ever who's approval 0:19:21.600 --> 0:19:24.760 rating never reached fifty percent while he was in office 0:19:24.760 --> 0:19:28.960 in Gallup, and his retrospective job approprating in Vodecast was 0:19:29.240 --> 0:19:33.280 fifty or fifty one percent. Like that is something, and 0:19:33.320 --> 0:19:36.600 that is partially a reflection of I said, the hydraulics, 0:19:36.880 --> 0:19:39.760 you know, Biden goes down, Republicans go up. But it's 0:19:39.800 --> 0:19:43.800 also the extent to which everything else about his presidency, 0:19:43.960 --> 0:19:45.639 which by the way, people are going to get exposed 0:19:45.680 --> 0:19:48.280 to again that they didn't like kind of faded next 0:19:48.320 --> 0:19:49.720 to the fact that people felt they had more money 0:19:49.760 --> 0:19:50.960 in their pocket at the end of the week. 0:19:51.160 --> 0:19:55.160 That is wild, wild, wild wild. 0:19:55.440 --> 0:19:57.320 And by the way, like, here's one thing that goes 0:19:57.320 --> 0:19:57.600 with that. 0:19:57.840 --> 0:20:00.320 Biden won the popular vote by four and a half point, right, 0:20:00.520 --> 0:20:02.399 So we're gonna have to wait and see when we 0:20:02.440 --> 0:20:04.600 get the actual analysis it's done with the data files, 0:20:04.600 --> 0:20:08.760 which is both Catalyst and Pew. But right now, Biden 0:20:08.800 --> 0:20:10.720 won by four and a half points. But when among 0:20:10.760 --> 0:20:13.359 the people who voted in twenty twenty in both the 0:20:13.359 --> 0:20:17.359 exipol and votecast, they were even in how they voted 0:20:17.480 --> 0:20:20.760 in twenty twenty plus one for Biden or zero difference. 0:20:20.920 --> 0:20:23.600 So that means that a lot of people who voted 0:20:23.640 --> 0:20:25.920 for Biden in twenty twenty did not come back. Did 0:20:25.920 --> 0:20:28.720 they not come back because they didn't fear Trump enough? 0:20:28.840 --> 0:20:30.600 Did they not come back because they didn't like the 0:20:30.640 --> 0:20:33.600 results they got from Biden? Was it both? But there 0:20:33.720 --> 0:20:36.800 was a big fall off in the kind of surge 0:20:36.840 --> 0:20:39.080 anti Maga voter. It came out in eighteen twenty two. 0:20:39.480 --> 0:20:43.200 I wondered if that was the Democratic base staying home. Well, 0:20:43.240 --> 0:20:46.040 it was something she lost young people. 0:20:46.440 --> 0:20:48.879 Well, she won young people, but retreated from Biden in 0:20:48.920 --> 0:20:53.359 twenty I actually think that was probably the surge. Again, 0:20:53.400 --> 0:20:57.280 when Catalyst and Pugh does this and they match their 0:20:57.640 --> 0:21:00.480 analysis to the actual voter file, will have a better idea. 0:21:00.520 --> 0:21:03.720 But if I had a guest today, the irregularly voting 0:21:03.960 --> 0:21:07.880 Democratic leaning constituencies, they came out to vote against Trump 0:21:07.880 --> 0:21:10.639 in eighteen twenty and twenty twenty two, a lot of 0:21:10.640 --> 0:21:13.639 them stayed home, whereas Trump continued to turn out his 0:21:13.880 --> 0:21:17.680 irregularly voting, his low propensity voters, particularly younger men. 0:21:17.840 --> 0:21:18.840 Again, we'll look. 0:21:18.680 --> 0:21:21.120 At later when we get these other sources, but right now, 0:21:21.160 --> 0:21:23.400 what we have, the exits of the votecast told us 0:21:23.560 --> 0:21:28.479 that Republicans outnumbered Democrats among voters to the biggest degree 0:21:28.560 --> 0:21:31.040 I think ever in the exipolse. I mean the exipolse, 0:21:31.280 --> 0:21:33.760 you know, the exipole was Republicans were four points more 0:21:33.760 --> 0:21:35.800 of the electorate than Democrats, and I think votecast was 0:21:35.840 --> 0:21:36.200 the same. 0:21:36.680 --> 0:21:39.480 There's never been a gap like that, never, never. 0:21:40.040 --> 0:21:42.960 But that's because he got those low propensity ones and 0:21:43.080 --> 0:21:44.520 twos out right. 0:21:44.359 --> 0:21:48.360 And then the low propensity Democrats would be my supposition 0:21:48.520 --> 0:21:51.480 did not come back. Now, why you know, one view 0:21:51.600 --> 0:21:54.600