1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:07,040 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:07,800 --> 00:00:10,560 Speaker 2: Norian Rapini, I've had some pain capital rise the following. 3 00:00:10,640 --> 00:00:13,119 Speaker 2: If the president walks away from the war with around now, 4 00:00:13,400 --> 00:00:15,920 Speaker 2: the threat to shipping in the strata for almost will remained. 5 00:00:15,920 --> 00:00:19,040 Speaker 2: Despite the obvious risks, he has every reason to try 6 00:00:19,160 --> 00:00:23,159 Speaker 2: to finish the job. Norielle, good morning, good morning, and 7 00:00:23,160 --> 00:00:25,239 Speaker 2: good luck as well. You know, to explain the last 8 00:00:25,280 --> 00:00:27,600 Speaker 2: few days, what is the status of things in your 9 00:00:27,640 --> 00:00:29,720 Speaker 2: mind and where do you think this is headache? 10 00:00:30,480 --> 00:00:31,680 Speaker 3: Well, there are two options. 11 00:00:32,280 --> 00:00:36,000 Speaker 4: One need is to de escalate and walk away from 12 00:00:36,040 --> 00:00:39,080 Speaker 4: this war and get to a ceasefire. But they're going 13 00:00:39,159 --> 00:00:40,879 Speaker 4: to get a ceasfire without the deal with you run 14 00:00:40,960 --> 00:00:44,360 Speaker 4: and he runs control the strait of Hormus is. 15 00:00:44,320 --> 00:00:47,000 Speaker 3: Going to threaten the Gulf and the supply of oil. 16 00:00:47,320 --> 00:00:49,800 Speaker 4: Your regime is actually much more radical today and it 17 00:00:49,920 --> 00:00:54,720 Speaker 4: was before because Motaja Cameminison is more radical than his father. 18 00:00:55,080 --> 00:00:58,600 Speaker 4: They're going to rebuild the ballistic missiles. They're going to 19 00:00:58,680 --> 00:01:01,960 Speaker 4: build even more. They're going to even try to enrich 20 00:01:02,040 --> 00:01:04,679 Speaker 4: the Ringum. They have to eapon grade and have a bomb. 21 00:01:05,160 --> 00:01:06,080 Speaker 4: So it's a disaster. 22 00:01:06,280 --> 00:01:06,520 Speaker 3: You know. 23 00:01:07,040 --> 00:01:09,800 Speaker 4: Trump is already behind in the polls this war has 24 00:01:09,800 --> 00:01:12,399 Speaker 4: been a bit of a failure, but now going away 25 00:01:12,400 --> 00:01:14,399 Speaker 4: from it implies that's going to for Shure lose the 26 00:01:14,400 --> 00:01:16,720 Speaker 4: mid terms, not just a House, but probably the Senate. 27 00:01:17,120 --> 00:01:18,959 Speaker 4: So I think that, in spite of all the rhetoric 28 00:01:19,000 --> 00:01:23,880 Speaker 4: about negotiations and getting a ceasefire, my more likely scenario, 29 00:01:24,240 --> 00:01:26,480 Speaker 4: I give you the two thirds probabilities one in which 30 00:01:26,720 --> 00:01:29,360 Speaker 4: the US has to escalate and finish the job, and 31 00:01:29,480 --> 00:01:33,200 Speaker 4: escalat means take over carg Island, try to take over 32 00:01:33,240 --> 00:01:36,280 Speaker 4: even the state of Hormus, try to reopen it, try 33 00:01:36,280 --> 00:01:39,480 Speaker 4: to a regym collapse, and win this war and finally 34 00:01:39,560 --> 00:01:41,560 Speaker 4: have a more stable Middle East. It's a very risky 35 00:01:41,600 --> 00:01:44,520 Speaker 4: one because if you take that chance, you might win, 36 00:01:45,000 --> 00:01:47,840 Speaker 4: but there's also a chance that you lose, and then 37 00:01:47,920 --> 00:01:51,560 Speaker 4: they beat the block even more hormous, they destroy even 38 00:01:51,560 --> 00:01:53,840 Speaker 4: more energy supplies of the Gulfs and then end up 39 00:01:54,040 --> 00:01:58,320 Speaker 4: in nineteen seventies circulation. But my view, escalating and winning 40 00:01:58,640 --> 00:02:01,560 Speaker 4: is more likely than escalator and losing. And given the 41 00:02:01,600 --> 00:02:05,160 Speaker 4: politics and electual dynamics, you left to escalate. 42 00:02:05,520 --> 00:02:08,079 Speaker 1: So if you escalate and you end up losing, you said, 43 00:02:08,080 --> 00:02:12,079 Speaker 1: it's nineteen seventies clflation all over again, if you win, 44 00:02:12,360 --> 00:02:14,760 Speaker 1: what does that look like based on the risk premia 45 00:02:14,880 --> 00:02:16,720 Speaker 1: that are likely to go on a lot of physical 46 00:02:16,760 --> 00:02:19,960 Speaker 1: goods and a question about staff piling in different regions 47 00:02:20,000 --> 00:02:22,960 Speaker 1: as a result of multiple different supply chain shocks. 48 00:02:23,600 --> 00:02:25,600 Speaker 4: Well, if you escalate, a win means that you take 49 00:02:25,639 --> 00:02:29,000 Speaker 4: over carg Island, you cut off by ninety percent the 50 00:02:29,080 --> 00:02:32,120 Speaker 4: revenues of the government. You continue the bombing campaign, you 51 00:02:32,160 --> 00:02:35,760 Speaker 4: destroy the military assets, you take over even the nuclear 52 00:02:36,440 --> 00:02:41,359 Speaker 4: kind of weapon grade uranium. You try to destroy the leadership, 53 00:02:41,400 --> 00:02:43,440 Speaker 4: You try to have regime collapse, and you try to 54 00:02:43,520 --> 00:02:45,840 Speaker 4: keep open as much as you can see it overmus 55 00:02:45,880 --> 00:02:50,040 Speaker 4: while defending the oil energy facility of the golfis If 56 00:02:50,080 --> 00:02:53,120 Speaker 4: all these things happened and you win, then actually you 57 00:02:53,200 --> 00:02:55,600 Speaker 4: got rid of the regime and for a short term, 58 00:02:55,600 --> 00:02:58,400 Speaker 4: maybe two three months, you have all prices about one twenty. 59 00:02:58,560 --> 00:03:01,000 Speaker 4: But then you're going to go to a stable world. 60 00:03:01,360 --> 00:03:03,320 Speaker 4: And by the way you run, controlling the set of 61 00:03:03,360 --> 00:03:06,919 Speaker 4: Hormus is a threat to the Golf, treat to Israel 62 00:03:07,000 --> 00:03:08,600 Speaker 4: is a threat to Europe, is traight to Asias, that 63 00:03:08,680 --> 00:03:12,280 Speaker 4: threat to the United States. So as the Emmiratis have 64 00:03:12,320 --> 00:03:15,080 Speaker 4: been saying clearly this is not acceptable and this is 65 00:03:15,120 --> 00:03:17,280 Speaker 4: the same view that people all over the golf have. 66 00:03:17,639 --> 00:03:18,840 Speaker 3: Is not an acceptable solution. 67 00:03:19,000 --> 00:03:21,799 Speaker 4: So given what has happened, you have to try to 68 00:03:21,840 --> 00:03:24,800 Speaker 4: finish the job, and finishing job means having the facto 69 00:03:25,000 --> 00:03:29,920 Speaker 4: regime collapse, either formal regim collapse or informally a situation 70 00:03:29,960 --> 00:03:32,560 Speaker 4: which this regime is not any more a threat to 71 00:03:32,800 --> 00:03:33,799 Speaker 4: the region and to the world. 72 00:03:33,919 --> 00:03:36,400 Speaker 5: All the regime has been weakened, though you give that 73 00:03:36,440 --> 00:03:39,880 Speaker 5: point to the president, but absolutely collapse. There's been no 74 00:03:40,080 --> 00:03:44,000 Speaker 5: evidence that we've seen defections and they're still in control. 75 00:03:44,280 --> 00:03:47,480 Speaker 4: Well, the facto collapse, in my view, means that you 76 00:03:47,600 --> 00:03:50,240 Speaker 4: take over carg Island, You try to reopen the stet 77 00:03:50,280 --> 00:03:52,440 Speaker 4: of ormos, You try to make sure that they cannot 78 00:03:52,480 --> 00:03:56,160 Speaker 4: destroy more energy facilities in the Gulf. You keep on 79 00:03:56,240 --> 00:03:58,960 Speaker 4: bombing the hell out of them for weeks. They've already 80 00:03:58,960 --> 00:04:01,560 Speaker 4: been eroded a lot, and every day is thousands of 81 00:04:01,640 --> 00:04:04,120 Speaker 4: new targets within Isral in the United States. You may 82 00:04:04,160 --> 00:04:06,800 Speaker 4: even be able to kill some of the remaining leadership 83 00:04:07,080 --> 00:04:10,800 Speaker 4: and the facto. That effectively a regime collapse, it's not 84 00:04:10,840 --> 00:04:12,800 Speaker 4: a region collapse. A regime that doesn't have a nuclear 85 00:04:12,840 --> 00:04:15,640 Speaker 4: weapon doesn't have weapon cannot threat in the state of 86 00:04:15,680 --> 00:04:18,600 Speaker 4: homost and whether it's former regime collapse or not at 87 00:04:18,600 --> 00:04:21,279 Speaker 4: that point doesn't matter. But that means finishing the job. 88 00:04:21,680 --> 00:04:25,600 Speaker 2: Noriah, we got about sixty seconds left. You lived in Tehran. Yeah, 89 00:04:25,680 --> 00:04:29,279 Speaker 2: as a child. How personal is this for you? 90 00:04:28,520 --> 00:04:31,880 Speaker 4: You know, I'm a Persian Jew, so I was in 91 00:04:31,920 --> 00:04:33,720 Speaker 4: Iran last one I was three years old, I lived 92 00:04:33,760 --> 00:04:36,160 Speaker 4: in Israel, grew up in Italy in the US, so 93 00:04:36,360 --> 00:04:38,360 Speaker 4: I don't take it personally. But I would say that 94 00:04:38,440 --> 00:04:42,160 Speaker 4: while this is an appalling regime and the current one 95 00:04:42,200 --> 00:04:44,440 Speaker 4: is worse than a previous one, the threat is not 96 00:04:44,520 --> 00:04:46,680 Speaker 4: just to Israel. The threat is not just to the 97 00:04:46,800 --> 00:04:49,720 Speaker 4: jess country. The threat right now is not just to Europe. 98 00:04:49,960 --> 00:04:52,640 Speaker 4: Europe is threatn from an economic point of view. From 99 00:04:52,680 --> 00:04:55,440 Speaker 4: a military point of view, the missiles along by the 100 00:04:55,560 --> 00:04:58,000 Speaker 4: luge ballist the missiles of Iran can reach anywhere of 101 00:04:58,040 --> 00:05:00,320 Speaker 4: the European Union. Is a threat to the world. Is 102 00:05:00,400 --> 00:05:02,880 Speaker 4: not acceptable. You can discuss whether it was the writing 103 00:05:03,200 --> 00:05:06,000 Speaker 4: or not to start this war, when once you start it, 104 00:05:06,080 --> 00:05:08,200 Speaker 4: if you don't finish it, it's going to be much 105 00:05:08,240 --> 00:05:10,040 Speaker 4: worse than the situation previously. 106 00:05:10,120 --> 00:05:12,520 Speaker 3: So given the risk you have to try. 107 00:05:12,240 --> 00:05:15,240 Speaker 4: To finish the job and having effective regime collapse or 108 00:05:15,279 --> 00:05:18,440 Speaker 4: the regime boxed in anyway, it's not any more attract Norea. 109 00:05:18,520 --> 00:05:21,160 Speaker 2: We appreciate your time and your experience. Thanks for sharing 110 00:05:21,200 --> 00:05:21,560 Speaker 2: it with us. 111 00:05:21,600 --> 00:05:22,040 Speaker 3: Thank you.