1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:10,119 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:13,880 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 3 00:00:13,920 --> 00:00:17,119 Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Apple Coarckley and Android 4 00:00:17,160 --> 00:00:20,520 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever 5 00:00:20,600 --> 00:00:25,080 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:25,400 --> 00:00:28,160 Speaker 2: Watching Wall Street for us as we tackle politics here 7 00:00:28,800 --> 00:00:31,480 Speaker 2: in Washington, or they're going to collide again in our 8 00:00:31,520 --> 00:00:35,360 Speaker 2: conversation coming up with Congressman Troy Downing is also going 9 00:00:35,400 --> 00:00:37,879 Speaker 2: to be with us from World's headquarters in New York. 10 00:00:37,880 --> 00:00:40,159 Speaker 2: Because we're playing the name game here. We've got several 11 00:00:40,159 --> 00:00:44,239 Speaker 2: new names on the not so shortlist for FED and 12 00:00:44,280 --> 00:00:46,199 Speaker 2: when you look at these names, they're reaching into the 13 00:00:46,200 --> 00:00:48,839 Speaker 2: private sector. In some cases here it's kind of like 14 00:00:48,880 --> 00:00:53,320 Speaker 2: a cookout at Charlie Pellett's house, Rick Reader, David Zervos, 15 00:00:53,520 --> 00:00:55,920 Speaker 2: Larry Lindsay on top of all the names that we 16 00:00:55,960 --> 00:00:59,800 Speaker 2: had heard before, Yes, Christopher Waller, the Kevins, Hassett and Warsh. 17 00:01:00,320 --> 00:01:03,600 Speaker 2: I see Mickey Bowman, Philip Jefferson, Mark Summerlin and James 18 00:01:03,600 --> 00:01:08,120 Speaker 2: Bullard all on this list. Keeping the tongues wagging up 19 00:01:08,160 --> 00:01:12,360 Speaker 2: and down. The Amtrak corridor, by the way, kicking off 20 00:01:12,360 --> 00:01:16,120 Speaker 2: that conversation today in the markets, the whole market stopped 21 00:01:16,160 --> 00:01:19,200 Speaker 2: at seven point thirty to listen to Scott Bessen in 22 00:01:19,319 --> 00:01:23,759 Speaker 2: a fascinating conversation with my colleagues on Bloomberg Surveillance, Jonathan 23 00:01:23,800 --> 00:01:27,040 Speaker 2: Farrow and Anne Marie Hordurn, speaking not only about the 24 00:01:27,080 --> 00:01:30,880 Speaker 2: next FED chare, but the man who was just announced 25 00:01:31,000 --> 00:01:34,399 Speaker 2: only hours after he was on this broadcast, Stephen Meyern, 26 00:01:34,440 --> 00:01:37,160 Speaker 2: the White House Chair of the Council of Economic Advisors, 27 00:01:37,200 --> 00:01:40,480 Speaker 2: to fill on a temporary basis seems to be the 28 00:01:40,480 --> 00:01:44,399 Speaker 2: plan here, the chair left vacant by Governor Kugler. The 29 00:01:44,440 --> 00:01:46,959 Speaker 2: big question right now can they get him confirmed in 30 00:01:47,040 --> 00:01:49,880 Speaker 2: time for the next FED meeting. Here's Scott Bessen from 31 00:01:49,920 --> 00:01:51,160 Speaker 2: earlier today on Bloomberg. 32 00:01:52,240 --> 00:01:56,960 Speaker 3: The President has great sway with Leader Soon. Leader Soon 33 00:01:57,000 --> 00:01:59,600 Speaker 3: has been a great partner during the tax deal, and 34 00:01:59,760 --> 00:02:03,280 Speaker 3: I think that he would like to see Stephen, who 35 00:02:03,320 --> 00:02:06,120 Speaker 3: I've known for a long time, get on there as 36 00:02:06,160 --> 00:02:09,720 Speaker 3: soon as possible. So I'm hopeful about the September meeting. 37 00:02:10,120 --> 00:02:14,160 Speaker 3: And Jonathan that the President's concerned about the building and 38 00:02:14,200 --> 00:02:18,480 Speaker 3: those massive costs overrun, which just tell you that there 39 00:02:18,560 --> 00:02:22,640 Speaker 3: is no accountability at that organization. There's no oversight in 40 00:02:22,720 --> 00:02:25,160 Speaker 3: terms of the spending. But the President and I are 41 00:02:25,200 --> 00:02:29,120 Speaker 3: both concerned about the foundations of the FED. The foundations 42 00:02:29,120 --> 00:02:32,640 Speaker 3: of the FED and how did this happen and why 43 00:02:32,639 --> 00:02:35,799 Speaker 3: did it happen and how did the leadership let it happen. 44 00:02:35,919 --> 00:02:38,040 Speaker 4: When it comes to Director Myron, do you expect him 45 00:02:38,080 --> 00:02:41,440 Speaker 4: to stay on past the January term that expires from 46 00:02:41,520 --> 00:02:42,200 Speaker 4: Coogler seat? 47 00:02:42,560 --> 00:02:43,520 Speaker 3: I wouldn't expect that. 48 00:02:44,080 --> 00:02:46,600 Speaker 4: So who are some names you're thinking of the Cooglar seat? 49 00:02:46,600 --> 00:02:48,800 Speaker 4: Because everyone has been focused on who is going to 50 00:02:48,840 --> 00:02:51,720 Speaker 4: fill the chairmanship role? Who are you thinking to fill 51 00:02:51,760 --> 00:02:52,440 Speaker 4: that extra seat? 52 00:02:52,480 --> 00:02:56,680 Speaker 3: Well, and Marie, I'm going to we're working on the 53 00:02:56,680 --> 00:02:59,160 Speaker 3: big list right now. I think they're going to be 54 00:02:59,200 --> 00:03:02,560 Speaker 3: a couple more names revealed today. They're going to be 55 00:03:02,560 --> 00:03:06,800 Speaker 3: private sector names. So we had a series or a 56 00:03:06,840 --> 00:03:10,400 Speaker 3: list of current FED members. We're going to have some 57 00:03:10,480 --> 00:03:17,480 Speaker 3: private sector, very well respected, very well respected people, and 58 00:03:17,520 --> 00:03:19,640 Speaker 3: then we will get to the second seat. 59 00:03:20,160 --> 00:03:21,679 Speaker 4: Can you give us some names a little bit of 60 00:03:21,720 --> 00:03:24,079 Speaker 4: a tease, maybe people that have been on this program. 61 00:03:24,440 --> 00:03:26,240 Speaker 3: Well, I just did tease telling you there will be 62 00:03:26,280 --> 00:03:27,359 Speaker 3: some private sector name. 63 00:03:27,560 --> 00:03:30,240 Speaker 4: Okay, when it comes to the FED chair, though, can 64 00:03:30,240 --> 00:03:32,079 Speaker 4: you give us a sense of how many names you're 65 00:03:32,160 --> 00:03:33,360 Speaker 4: actually thinking about. 66 00:03:33,400 --> 00:03:36,000 Speaker 3: Well, I'm going to interview I'm going to cast a 67 00:03:36,000 --> 00:03:40,800 Speaker 3: wide net ten to eleven people, and then there'll be 68 00:03:40,840 --> 00:03:42,960 Speaker 3: a group of us who are meeting with them, and 69 00:03:43,280 --> 00:03:46,120 Speaker 3: we want to talk about monetary policy. We want to 70 00:03:46,160 --> 00:03:50,560 Speaker 3: talk about regulatory policy, which is very, very important because 71 00:03:50,880 --> 00:03:54,800 Speaker 3: the FED step I think bigfoot of the other regulators. 72 00:03:54,800 --> 00:03:59,440 Speaker 3: The Fed's one of three regulators, Federal Reserve, OCC and FDIC, 73 00:04:00,240 --> 00:04:04,840 Speaker 3: and I think that they need to understand that they 74 00:04:04,880 --> 00:04:07,680 Speaker 3: are one of three, and then the third is the 75 00:04:07,720 --> 00:04:11,160 Speaker 3: institution itself, which I think is what President Trump has 76 00:04:11,200 --> 00:04:12,680 Speaker 3: been focused on quite a bit too. 77 00:04:13,000 --> 00:04:15,400 Speaker 4: After you do this process, how many names are going 78 00:04:15,440 --> 00:04:17,200 Speaker 4: to give to the president and when does he start 79 00:04:17,200 --> 00:04:18,320 Speaker 4: those in person interviews? 80 00:04:18,880 --> 00:04:22,719 Speaker 3: We don't have a timeline. By putting Stephen Meyern in 81 00:04:23,120 --> 00:04:26,080 Speaker 3: that gives us more time, and again, I want to 82 00:04:26,279 --> 00:04:30,520 Speaker 3: cast a wide net. The President's very open minded. Before 83 00:04:30,640 --> 00:04:37,360 Speaker 3: he chose j Powell, Janet Yellen was interviewed, John Taylor 84 00:04:37,480 --> 00:04:40,120 Speaker 3: was interviewed. Two of them couldn't have been more different, 85 00:04:40,240 --> 00:04:42,159 Speaker 3: so they were under consideration. 86 00:04:44,279 --> 00:04:48,000 Speaker 2: Fascinating. Scott Bess at the Treasury Secretary earlier today on 87 00:04:48,040 --> 00:04:52,000 Speaker 2: Bloomberg's surveillance having a little trouble with the math ten 88 00:04:52,040 --> 00:04:54,400 Speaker 2: to eleven names going to the president, But the President 89 00:04:54,440 --> 00:04:56,360 Speaker 2: said a short time ago at the Kennedy Center when 90 00:04:56,400 --> 00:05:00,799 Speaker 2: asked by Bloomberg's Josh Wingrove, that in fact the search 91 00:05:00,920 --> 00:05:05,039 Speaker 2: was down to three or four fedchare picks. You saw 92 00:05:05,080 --> 00:05:07,880 Speaker 2: the headline across the terminal. It says he will name 93 00:05:08,600 --> 00:05:11,520 Speaker 2: a FED share a little bit early, which is interesting 94 00:05:11,640 --> 00:05:15,440 Speaker 2: considering the timeline we're talking about here. For Steven Myron, 95 00:05:15,520 --> 00:05:17,400 Speaker 2: let's get into all of this with Troy Downing. What 96 00:05:17,440 --> 00:05:21,040 Speaker 2: a pleasure to have the Republican congressman from Montana's second 97 00:05:21,080 --> 00:05:23,440 Speaker 2: districts in the House. He's at World Headquarters in New 98 00:05:23,520 --> 00:05:25,880 Speaker 2: York and joins us live from the fish Bowl. It's 99 00:05:25,880 --> 00:05:28,960 Speaker 2: great to see Congressman. Welcome back to Bloomberg TV and Radio. 100 00:05:29,000 --> 00:05:31,360 Speaker 2: How do you feel about this idea of maybe reaching 101 00:05:31,360 --> 00:05:34,279 Speaker 2: into the private sector for the next FED chair. 102 00:05:34,520 --> 00:05:36,080 Speaker 5: I think we need more of that. I think we 103 00:05:36,160 --> 00:05:40,400 Speaker 5: need more private sector understanding and experience to solve problems 104 00:05:40,400 --> 00:05:43,400 Speaker 5: in government. I think this administration has identified that. I 105 00:05:43,400 --> 00:05:46,320 Speaker 5: think this administration has been correct on a lot of 106 00:05:46,360 --> 00:05:49,680 Speaker 5: these picks, and it brings a new perspective and I 107 00:05:49,680 --> 00:05:52,520 Speaker 5: think we need that. And having somebody that has been 108 00:05:53,080 --> 00:05:54,800 Speaker 5: in I'm going to say, the real world and not 109 00:05:54,960 --> 00:05:58,240 Speaker 5: you know, strictly as you know, a regulator or a 110 00:05:58,279 --> 00:06:02,200 Speaker 5: political person, I think that that's powerful. I mean my background, 111 00:06:02,200 --> 00:06:03,800 Speaker 5: I came from the private sector and then I was 112 00:06:03,839 --> 00:06:06,479 Speaker 5: a regulator. Now I'm a lawmaker. So I bring that 113 00:06:06,720 --> 00:06:09,719 Speaker 5: experience from those different parts into what I do. And 114 00:06:09,880 --> 00:06:13,320 Speaker 5: I think it's I'm excited about this process and I'm 115 00:06:13,320 --> 00:06:15,920 Speaker 5: excited about seeing who makes it through this confirmation process. 116 00:06:16,560 --> 00:06:18,880 Speaker 2: Well, it's interesting some of the names that had been floated. 117 00:06:19,040 --> 00:06:21,080 Speaker 2: When the President says three to four, I'm assuming two 118 00:06:21,120 --> 00:06:23,640 Speaker 2: of them are the Kevins, Hassett, Warsh. Would you be 119 00:06:23,720 --> 00:06:26,360 Speaker 2: happy with a fed run by some of the names 120 00:06:26,360 --> 00:06:27,920 Speaker 2: on the so called shortlist right now? 121 00:06:28,000 --> 00:06:30,279 Speaker 5: Yeah, I think it'll be great. Obviously, we need to 122 00:06:30,279 --> 00:06:32,600 Speaker 5: go through the process, and the President is being very 123 00:06:32,640 --> 00:06:35,200 Speaker 5: thoughtful about this, His team is being very thoughtful. And 124 00:06:35,240 --> 00:06:37,440 Speaker 5: then you know, the Senate I'm sure is gonna, you know, 125 00:06:38,240 --> 00:06:40,040 Speaker 5: ask all the right questions to make sure that we're 126 00:06:40,040 --> 00:06:42,200 Speaker 5: comfortable in that position and make that decision. But I 127 00:06:42,800 --> 00:06:45,080 Speaker 5: would be very happy going through that process. I think 128 00:06:45,080 --> 00:06:47,840 Speaker 5: this is a normal, necessary process. We're going to get 129 00:06:48,200 --> 00:06:51,359 Speaker 5: a big upgrade in that position. 130 00:06:52,520 --> 00:06:55,000 Speaker 2: Well, your view is important here as a member of 131 00:06:55,040 --> 00:06:58,360 Speaker 2: the House Financial Services Committee. Yes, this list keeps growing, 132 00:06:58,400 --> 00:06:59,360 Speaker 2: you're going to throw your hat in. 133 00:07:00,000 --> 00:07:02,719 Speaker 5: Oh no, not for me. I've got work to do, 134 00:07:02,920 --> 00:07:04,880 Speaker 5: and I'm excited about the work we are doing on 135 00:07:04,920 --> 00:07:08,880 Speaker 5: financial services. But I am excited about seeing some change 136 00:07:08,880 --> 00:07:09,760 Speaker 5: there and seeing what comes. 137 00:07:11,240 --> 00:07:13,600 Speaker 2: J Powell is a private sector guy at one time. 138 00:07:13,960 --> 00:07:16,320 Speaker 2: A sad Duffner reminds me, Look, I know you were 139 00:07:16,320 --> 00:07:18,200 Speaker 2: not only in the private sector before you were also 140 00:07:18,240 --> 00:07:20,200 Speaker 2: in the military. You joined the Air Force following nine 141 00:07:20,240 --> 00:07:22,440 Speaker 2: to eleven, you twice deployed to Afghanistan. And I think 142 00:07:22,440 --> 00:07:25,160 Speaker 2: that your view on what's about to unfold on Friday 143 00:07:25,200 --> 00:07:28,600 Speaker 2: is important to our viewers and listeners. Should Vladimir Putin 144 00:07:28,760 --> 00:07:32,840 Speaker 2: be setting foot on a US air base in Alaska, you. 145 00:07:32,800 --> 00:07:35,360 Speaker 5: Know, I'm not part of that decision process. 146 00:07:35,440 --> 00:07:38,040 Speaker 6: I think it's obviously unusual. 147 00:07:38,760 --> 00:07:42,600 Speaker 5: But I you know, I've got to give kudos to 148 00:07:42,640 --> 00:07:44,760 Speaker 5: the president, the president, and you know, you keep hearing 149 00:07:45,000 --> 00:07:47,560 Speaker 5: the art of the deal, and the President knows how 150 00:07:47,560 --> 00:07:49,920 Speaker 5: to get things done, and if this is the correct 151 00:07:50,040 --> 00:07:53,440 Speaker 5: venue in him doing that process, you know, I'm very supportive. 152 00:07:53,640 --> 00:07:55,440 Speaker 5: We need to see this stop, we need to see 153 00:07:55,440 --> 00:07:57,160 Speaker 5: this come to an end. We need to make sure 154 00:07:57,200 --> 00:07:59,640 Speaker 5: that the killing, that the war stops and that we 155 00:07:59,640 --> 00:08:02,320 Speaker 5: can see piece there. And if this is the process 156 00:08:02,360 --> 00:08:05,760 Speaker 5: that the President believes is appropriate, you know, I'm supportive 157 00:08:05,760 --> 00:08:08,640 Speaker 5: of that, and I'm really hopeful to see this come 158 00:08:08,680 --> 00:08:11,080 Speaker 5: to an end because you know, it's just atrocious what 159 00:08:11,080 --> 00:08:14,160 Speaker 5: we've seen happening in this you know, now drawn out war, 160 00:08:14,360 --> 00:08:16,000 Speaker 5: and we need to see it come to an end. 161 00:08:16,120 --> 00:08:19,160 Speaker 5: And I really do believe that Donald Trump is the 162 00:08:19,160 --> 00:08:22,560 Speaker 5: person who can bring this to a good conclusion. 163 00:08:23,720 --> 00:08:26,000 Speaker 2: You know, as we always see before events like this, 164 00:08:26,040 --> 00:08:29,160 Speaker 2: there's a gaming of expectations. I don't know what years 165 00:08:29,200 --> 00:08:32,600 Speaker 2: are here, if it's a ceasefire or just kind of 166 00:08:32,640 --> 00:08:36,840 Speaker 2: an agreement to meet again, as we've been hearing from 167 00:08:37,200 --> 00:08:40,920 Speaker 2: the White House. But I wonder your thoughts on secondary sanctions. 168 00:08:40,920 --> 00:08:43,600 Speaker 2: They appear to be slowed down a bit and to 169 00:08:43,679 --> 00:08:46,880 Speaker 2: make room for these talks to take place. But should 170 00:08:47,240 --> 00:08:49,920 Speaker 2: countries buying Russian oil be punished for it? If this 171 00:08:50,000 --> 00:08:50,640 Speaker 2: goes nowhere? 172 00:08:50,679 --> 00:08:53,880 Speaker 5: You know, I think that sanctions are a powerful tool, 173 00:08:54,040 --> 00:08:56,440 Speaker 5: and I think we need to, you know, personally, keep 174 00:08:56,440 --> 00:08:58,600 Speaker 5: our foot on the throttle on this. You know, there's 175 00:08:58,960 --> 00:09:01,120 Speaker 5: a bill that I have out there there right now 176 00:09:01,440 --> 00:09:06,200 Speaker 5: to stop Russian market manipulation in critical minerals. We produce 177 00:09:06,760 --> 00:09:08,840 Speaker 5: platinum and palladium in my district, the only place in 178 00:09:08,840 --> 00:09:10,640 Speaker 5: the United States of America, and so we've got the 179 00:09:10,720 --> 00:09:14,160 Speaker 5: Stop Russian Manipulation Manipulation Act to make sure that they 180 00:09:14,200 --> 00:09:18,199 Speaker 5: can't affect the commodities markets by dumping platinum and pladium 181 00:09:18,240 --> 00:09:21,600 Speaker 5: into these markets. I think that that's incredibly important to 182 00:09:21,880 --> 00:09:25,840 Speaker 5: you know, continue to be very serious about these sanctions 183 00:09:25,880 --> 00:09:29,400 Speaker 5: until we get you know, the desired result out of Russia. 184 00:09:29,760 --> 00:09:33,480 Speaker 5: And you know, if there's a slight tempering of that 185 00:09:33,800 --> 00:09:37,240 Speaker 5: during a negotiation to get somebody at the table, you know, 186 00:09:37,640 --> 00:09:40,559 Speaker 5: I'm not particularly happy, but I understand why to get 187 00:09:40,559 --> 00:09:42,760 Speaker 5: this done, and hopefully we can bring this to a 188 00:09:42,800 --> 00:09:45,880 Speaker 5: conclusion because one of our best tools right there is 189 00:09:46,240 --> 00:09:49,760 Speaker 5: financial and making sure that we do have meaningful sanctions 190 00:09:49,760 --> 00:09:53,600 Speaker 5: to basically get the behavior that we want out of them. 191 00:09:54,720 --> 00:09:58,199 Speaker 2: I want to hear more about platinum and palladium in 192 00:09:58,280 --> 00:10:02,240 Speaker 2: your state of Montana. This is really important stuff. And 193 00:10:02,280 --> 00:10:04,880 Speaker 2: I suspect that you're talking to the administration about this 194 00:10:05,520 --> 00:10:09,040 Speaker 2: is the federal government or the Trump administration specifically stepping 195 00:10:09,160 --> 00:10:12,559 Speaker 2: up to help you protect those resources and more importantly 196 00:10:12,920 --> 00:10:14,080 Speaker 2: harvest and process. 197 00:10:14,120 --> 00:10:15,559 Speaker 5: Then harvest and process. 198 00:10:15,559 --> 00:10:15,920 Speaker 6: I like that. 199 00:10:16,520 --> 00:10:18,760 Speaker 5: You know that second part that you said processing is 200 00:10:18,760 --> 00:10:21,120 Speaker 5: obviously a big, big issue with all of our critical 201 00:10:22,080 --> 00:10:25,360 Speaker 5: minerals or you know, metals. Everything that we're doing is 202 00:10:25,640 --> 00:10:27,000 Speaker 5: we can pull a lot of stuff out of the 203 00:10:27,000 --> 00:10:29,280 Speaker 5: ground that we don't have the capacity to actually turn 204 00:10:29,320 --> 00:10:32,360 Speaker 5: into a usable material. So that's a big part of 205 00:10:32,360 --> 00:10:36,280 Speaker 5: this equation as we talk about being dependent on other nations, 206 00:10:36,360 --> 00:10:40,400 Speaker 5: especially adversarial nations, on critical minerals, on all these things. 207 00:10:41,960 --> 00:10:43,720 Speaker 5: But even the ones that we're pulling out of the ground, 208 00:10:43,800 --> 00:10:45,880 Speaker 5: very often we have to send them abroad to have 209 00:10:45,960 --> 00:10:48,199 Speaker 5: them process. So I think that that is something that 210 00:10:48,240 --> 00:10:51,200 Speaker 5: we should be looking at in repatriating a lot of 211 00:10:51,240 --> 00:10:54,120 Speaker 5: that processing. But I'll tell you, the critical minerals has 212 00:10:54,120 --> 00:10:58,080 Speaker 5: obviously been a big part of the Trump's Trump Administration's 213 00:10:58,160 --> 00:11:00,840 Speaker 5: you know goals making sure we're doing that right. And 214 00:11:00,920 --> 00:11:02,480 Speaker 5: you know, it comes down to a couple of things. 215 00:11:02,559 --> 00:11:05,400 Speaker 5: You know, for my district, It's obviously a big economic 216 00:11:05,480 --> 00:11:09,160 Speaker 5: issue because it's jobs in Stillwater County and Yellowstone County. 217 00:11:09,400 --> 00:11:12,760 Speaker 5: It's meaningful there, you know, to not be able to 218 00:11:12,760 --> 00:11:16,520 Speaker 5: continue pulling platinum pladium out of the ground. But it's 219 00:11:16,520 --> 00:11:20,000 Speaker 5: also national security issues. We can't we can't be dependent 220 00:11:20,120 --> 00:11:24,640 Speaker 5: on somebody else, you know, anybody else in raw base material. 221 00:11:24,679 --> 00:11:27,840 Speaker 5: And that's that's across the spectrum from you know, rare 222 00:11:27,880 --> 00:11:31,280 Speaker 5: earths to critical minerals to copper, you know, everything that 223 00:11:31,320 --> 00:11:34,080 Speaker 5: we need to continue building, you know, the future. We 224 00:11:34,120 --> 00:11:36,600 Speaker 5: need to be able to source it, if not directly 225 00:11:36,600 --> 00:11:39,120 Speaker 5: from America, then to close allies. And I think that's 226 00:11:39,160 --> 00:11:43,040 Speaker 5: incredibly important that we continue finding ways to solve those problems. 227 00:11:44,000 --> 00:11:45,640 Speaker 2: I'm really glad that we can talk about it because 228 00:11:45,679 --> 00:11:48,760 Speaker 2: it's it's it's the lynchpin to a deal with China 229 00:11:48,800 --> 00:11:51,760 Speaker 2: when we consider the importance of rare earth minerals and 230 00:11:51,800 --> 00:11:55,000 Speaker 2: magnets that we're trying to get access to in this country. 231 00:11:55,040 --> 00:11:57,160 Speaker 2: And I know that a trade deal with China could 232 00:11:57,200 --> 00:11:59,280 Speaker 2: take some time. It's been rather elusive, and it's of 233 00:11:59,320 --> 00:12:02,320 Speaker 2: course the biggest economy after ours, so it's been basically 234 00:12:02,320 --> 00:12:05,000 Speaker 2: put into a different category. But Congressman I wonder your 235 00:12:05,040 --> 00:12:07,960 Speaker 2: thoughts on the tariff program as it stands now. We 236 00:12:08,000 --> 00:12:11,439 Speaker 2: saw reciprocals go into place last week, and there have 237 00:12:11,480 --> 00:12:13,760 Speaker 2: been a lot of questions about the impact on prices, 238 00:12:13,800 --> 00:12:16,440 Speaker 2: whether it's a one time shift or an inflationary trend. 239 00:12:16,679 --> 00:12:19,480 Speaker 2: How do Montanans feel about this? You know, there is 240 00:12:19,480 --> 00:12:20,880 Speaker 2: how your farmers feel about it. 241 00:12:21,000 --> 00:12:23,640 Speaker 5: Yeah, there's been so much fear mongering in this space, 242 00:12:24,080 --> 00:12:26,760 Speaker 5: and the truth of it is is that it's working. 243 00:12:27,040 --> 00:12:29,440 Speaker 5: I mean, you look at the CPI numbers that came out, 244 00:12:29,520 --> 00:12:32,719 Speaker 5: you know, almost completely unphased by teriff issues. I think 245 00:12:32,760 --> 00:12:35,560 Speaker 5: it was a three point seven down to two point four, 246 00:12:35,840 --> 00:12:39,080 Speaker 5: you know, positive movement there, completely unphased. You look at 247 00:12:39,080 --> 00:12:41,080 Speaker 5: the money coming in from the tariffs and what that 248 00:12:41,120 --> 00:12:44,960 Speaker 5: can do in bridging the gap in our national and 249 00:12:45,000 --> 00:12:47,679 Speaker 5: that everybody's talking about, you know, adding to the deficit, 250 00:12:47,720 --> 00:12:48,440 Speaker 5: adding to the debt. 251 00:12:49,160 --> 00:12:50,359 Speaker 6: You know, you see that. 252 00:12:50,080 --> 00:12:52,360 Speaker 5: That money coming in and bridging that gap. And I 253 00:12:52,400 --> 00:12:54,600 Speaker 5: think the last part that we need to start looking 254 00:12:54,640 --> 00:12:57,080 Speaker 5: at is you know, you started this program talking about 255 00:12:57,080 --> 00:13:01,559 Speaker 5: the FED and one of the biggest issues in growing 256 00:13:01,600 --> 00:13:04,960 Speaker 5: that gap is debt service and so really looking at 257 00:13:05,040 --> 00:13:07,280 Speaker 5: interest rates. If we can start pulling that back. I 258 00:13:07,360 --> 00:13:10,840 Speaker 5: think we can bridge that gap and start to see 259 00:13:10,880 --> 00:13:13,480 Speaker 5: some positive numbers there. But one thing I want to 260 00:13:13,520 --> 00:13:16,160 Speaker 5: point out is a lot of the policies that have 261 00:13:16,200 --> 00:13:18,880 Speaker 5: come in this administration, you know, going you know, to 262 00:13:19,000 --> 00:13:23,400 Speaker 5: tariff issues, going to the one big beautiful bill. A 263 00:13:23,400 --> 00:13:26,640 Speaker 5: lot of this stuff has you know, set the foundation 264 00:13:27,200 --> 00:13:30,720 Speaker 5: for really charging the economy, but hasn't really gotten up 265 00:13:30,720 --> 00:13:32,520 Speaker 5: to speed yet, you know, those tax cuts. I always 266 00:13:32,559 --> 00:13:36,120 Speaker 5: say that the biggest driver to economic prosperity is access 267 00:13:36,120 --> 00:13:39,440 Speaker 5: to capital. The best capital you can access as your own. 268 00:13:39,679 --> 00:13:42,640 Speaker 5: If you're paying lesson taxes, you start having more money 269 00:13:42,679 --> 00:13:44,560 Speaker 5: in your parket to start putting into the economy. 270 00:13:44,679 --> 00:13:45,319 Speaker 6: That's the driver. 271 00:13:45,400 --> 00:13:48,560 Speaker 2: The bridges this gap looks like That's what Wall Street's 272 00:13:48,600 --> 00:13:51,560 Speaker 2: pending on right now. Congressman, we appreciate the conversation as always, 273 00:13:51,600 --> 00:13:55,120 Speaker 2: Troy Downing, Montana's second district. Pretty cool to think about 274 00:13:55,160 --> 00:13:57,760 Speaker 2: being in Yellowstone County. 275 00:13:59,080 --> 00:14:02,560 Speaker 1: Jore Listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 276 00:14:02,640 --> 00:14:05,680 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on 277 00:14:05,800 --> 00:14:09,040 Speaker 1: Apple Cockley and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. 278 00:14:09,080 --> 00:14:12,120 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 279 00:14:12,120 --> 00:14:16,240 Speaker 1: flagship New York station Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven 280 00:14:16,360 --> 00:14:18,160 Speaker 1: thirty over with. 281 00:14:18,160 --> 00:14:20,720 Speaker 2: Our eyes not only on what's happening with regard to 282 00:14:20,760 --> 00:14:23,240 Speaker 2: the Fed, but Scott Bessen talked about a lot more, 283 00:14:23,280 --> 00:14:28,359 Speaker 2: including Russia's war against Ukraine and the looming meeting. Friday's 284 00:14:28,400 --> 00:14:31,200 Speaker 2: meeting one on one between President Trump and Vladimir Putin. 285 00:14:31,240 --> 00:14:33,440 Speaker 2: We just had a bunch of headlines just across the 286 00:14:33,520 --> 00:14:36,840 Speaker 2: terminal a couple of moments ago, following President Trump's conversation 287 00:14:36,920 --> 00:14:40,800 Speaker 2: with European leaders that included Vladimir Zelenski. Zelenski appeared after 288 00:14:41,520 --> 00:14:44,560 Speaker 2: that telephone meeting with the Chancellor of Germany and made 289 00:14:44,600 --> 00:14:49,240 Speaker 2: some news saying that it was a productive conversation with 290 00:14:49,320 --> 00:14:53,200 Speaker 2: President Trump and European leaders coordinating positions ahead of the meeting. 291 00:14:53,240 --> 00:14:55,200 Speaker 2: They're trying to get on the same page here. They 292 00:14:55,240 --> 00:14:59,320 Speaker 2: discussed possible formats for future talks and meetings, and that's important. 293 00:15:00,000 --> 00:15:03,240 Speaker 2: Trump telling reporters today at the Kennedy Center that, in fact, 294 00:15:03,280 --> 00:15:05,920 Speaker 2: the second meeting would likely be more productive that this 295 00:15:06,040 --> 00:15:08,680 Speaker 2: first meeting, as we heard yesterday from the White House, 296 00:15:08,800 --> 00:15:11,080 Speaker 2: was more about a feeling out session to get a 297 00:15:11,120 --> 00:15:14,240 Speaker 2: sense of what progress could be made. As opposed to 298 00:15:14,360 --> 00:15:18,520 Speaker 2: landing a peace deal in this meeting itself, Zelenski saying 299 00:15:18,520 --> 00:15:23,880 Speaker 2: that President Trump proposed a call after Alaska. Scott Bessett 300 00:15:23,880 --> 00:15:27,240 Speaker 2: did talk about all of this with Anne Marie and 301 00:15:27,320 --> 00:15:30,560 Speaker 2: John Farrell earlier on Bloomberg Surveillance. Let's listen to the 302 00:15:30,560 --> 00:15:31,520 Speaker 2: Treasury secretary. 303 00:15:32,680 --> 00:15:39,440 Speaker 3: The President has been thinking about this a long time. 304 00:15:39,880 --> 00:15:43,760 Speaker 3: He believes, as do I, that this war never would 305 00:15:43,800 --> 00:15:46,400 Speaker 3: have started if he had been president, and he is 306 00:15:46,480 --> 00:15:49,640 Speaker 3: committed to ending the bloodshed, but not in any calls, 307 00:15:50,200 --> 00:15:54,400 Speaker 3: not in any call. I think everyone has been frustrated 308 00:15:54,440 --> 00:15:57,840 Speaker 3: with President Putin. We expected that he would come to 309 00:15:57,920 --> 00:16:00,960 Speaker 3: the table in a more fulsome way. It looks like 310 00:16:01,120 --> 00:16:05,560 Speaker 3: he may be ready to negotiate. And we've put secondary 311 00:16:05,680 --> 00:16:11,320 Speaker 3: tariffs on an Indian on the Indians for buying Russian oil, 312 00:16:11,680 --> 00:16:14,800 Speaker 3: and I could see if things don't go well, then 313 00:16:15,360 --> 00:16:18,440 Speaker 3: sanctions or secondary tariffs could go up. 314 00:16:18,720 --> 00:16:22,119 Speaker 4: What about China, They're the main purchasers of Russian crude. 315 00:16:22,680 --> 00:16:26,360 Speaker 3: Again, I'm not going to get ahead of the president, 316 00:16:26,480 --> 00:16:30,680 Speaker 3: but the President is the best at creating leverage for himself, 317 00:16:31,080 --> 00:16:33,720 Speaker 3: and he will make it clear to President Putin that 318 00:16:33,880 --> 00:16:35,800 Speaker 3: all options are on the table. 319 00:16:36,240 --> 00:16:39,080 Speaker 4: So sanctions can go up, or they can also be loosened. 320 00:16:40,360 --> 00:16:44,200 Speaker 3: Sanctions can go up, they can be loosened, they can 321 00:16:44,880 --> 00:16:50,240 Speaker 3: have a definitive life, they can go on indefinitely. There's 322 00:16:50,320 --> 00:16:54,480 Speaker 3: this Russian shadow fleet of ships around the world that 323 00:16:54,640 --> 00:16:57,800 Speaker 3: I think we could crack down in them. But am 324 00:16:57,800 --> 00:17:00,320 Speaker 3: Marie and Jonathan. The one message I would leave you 325 00:17:00,400 --> 00:17:04,399 Speaker 3: with the President Trump is meeting with President Putin, and 326 00:17:04,480 --> 00:17:08,800 Speaker 3: the Europeans are in the wings, carping about how he 327 00:17:08,840 --> 00:17:10,840 Speaker 3: should do it, what he should do it. But the 328 00:17:10,880 --> 00:17:14,840 Speaker 3: Europeans need to join us in these sanctions. They need 329 00:17:14,880 --> 00:17:17,399 Speaker 3: to the Europeans need to be willing to put on 330 00:17:17,480 --> 00:17:21,040 Speaker 3: these secondary sanctions. I was at the G seven meeting 331 00:17:21,359 --> 00:17:26,320 Speaker 3: in Canada with President Trump and the Europeans kept talking 332 00:17:26,359 --> 00:17:30,680 Speaker 3: about Senator Graham's bill to do the secondary tariffs. And 333 00:17:30,920 --> 00:17:33,400 Speaker 3: I looked at all the leaders around the table and 334 00:17:33,440 --> 00:17:37,840 Speaker 3: I said, is everyone at this table willing to put 335 00:17:37,920 --> 00:17:42,000 Speaker 3: a two secondary tariff on China? And you know what, 336 00:17:42,440 --> 00:17:45,120 Speaker 3: everybody wanted to see what kind of shoes they were wearing. 337 00:17:47,960 --> 00:17:50,760 Speaker 2: As opposed to raising their hands. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessen 338 00:17:50,840 --> 00:17:53,560 Speaker 2: with Jonathan Farrow and a Marie hordern On Bloomberg surveillance 339 00:17:53,600 --> 00:17:56,399 Speaker 2: earlier this morning, which brings us to our conversation with 340 00:17:56,520 --> 00:17:59,240 Speaker 2: Jennifer Kavanaugh. He doesn't want to get ahead of the president, 341 00:17:59,280 --> 00:18:00,439 Speaker 2: but we're going to try to get ahead of this 342 00:18:00,520 --> 00:18:03,280 Speaker 2: meeting to understand exactly what might come from it. Senior fellow, 343 00:18:03,320 --> 00:18:07,240 Speaker 2: Director of Military Analysis at Defense Priorities and co author 344 00:18:07,280 --> 00:18:11,160 Speaker 2: of Truth Decay, An initial exploration of the diminishing role 345 00:18:11,240 --> 00:18:15,840 Speaker 2: of facts and analysis in American public life. Jennifer, welcome back. 346 00:18:16,280 --> 00:18:19,240 Speaker 2: It's great to see you from your view at Defense Priorities. 347 00:18:19,640 --> 00:18:22,320 Speaker 2: I'm wondering what you're expecting here, having just heard the 348 00:18:22,359 --> 00:18:27,160 Speaker 2: Treasury Secretary speak about secondary sanctions. What's more likely those 349 00:18:27,160 --> 00:18:30,160 Speaker 2: sanctions to be put into effect or a peace deal 350 00:18:30,240 --> 00:18:31,439 Speaker 2: to emerge from this meeting. 351 00:18:33,000 --> 00:18:35,520 Speaker 7: I think neither. Actually, I think the most likely outcome 352 00:18:35,560 --> 00:18:39,159 Speaker 7: here is that President Putin and President Trump spend the 353 00:18:39,200 --> 00:18:42,640 Speaker 7: meeting feeling each other out, getting a sense of where 354 00:18:42,680 --> 00:18:45,800 Speaker 7: each side's redlines lie. I think that the United States 355 00:18:46,320 --> 00:18:48,560 Speaker 7: can learn a lot in this meeting from where Putin 356 00:18:48,640 --> 00:18:52,600 Speaker 7: might be flexible in terms of making compromises. And my 357 00:18:52,720 --> 00:18:54,639 Speaker 7: hope is that they come out with number one, a 358 00:18:54,680 --> 00:18:59,399 Speaker 7: plan to keep talking at high levels between Putin and 359 00:18:59,400 --> 00:19:02,600 Speaker 7: hopefully at the point Zolenski, as well as a concrete 360 00:19:02,600 --> 00:19:05,920 Speaker 7: plan to have working level negotiations to start to hash 361 00:19:05,920 --> 00:19:07,919 Speaker 7: out some of the details that will have to be 362 00:19:07,960 --> 00:19:11,880 Speaker 7: addressed before any ceasefire or lasting settlement. So that's that's 363 00:19:11,920 --> 00:19:14,280 Speaker 7: what I see as a really good outcome. And that's 364 00:19:14,359 --> 00:19:19,040 Speaker 7: neither you know, punishing sanctions or an end to the war. 365 00:19:20,280 --> 00:19:22,960 Speaker 2: Well, maybe it is, in fact some half measure. The 366 00:19:22,960 --> 00:19:25,359 Speaker 2: President apparently said on this call today that he hopes 367 00:19:25,400 --> 00:19:29,680 Speaker 2: to bring a cease fire from this meeting. Could a 368 00:19:29,760 --> 00:19:31,520 Speaker 2: cease fire with Vladimir Putin. 369 00:19:31,320 --> 00:19:35,080 Speaker 7: Be trusted, Well, it depends what the terms of the 370 00:19:35,119 --> 00:19:38,159 Speaker 7: ceasefire are and and what the deal looks like. I 371 00:19:38,160 --> 00:19:41,680 Speaker 7: think a ceasefire, a full cease fire coming out of 372 00:19:41,720 --> 00:19:44,240 Speaker 7: this meeting would be unlikely simply because Zolenski isn't there 373 00:19:44,280 --> 00:19:48,359 Speaker 7: to participate in the discussion. It's possible that they might 374 00:19:48,400 --> 00:19:51,840 Speaker 7: agree to some sort of framework deal like that Putin 375 00:19:51,920 --> 00:19:55,640 Speaker 7: agrees in principle to a ceasefire on the condition that 376 00:19:56,880 --> 00:20:00,320 Speaker 7: other issues are worked out, including territorial issues as well 377 00:20:00,359 --> 00:20:04,160 Speaker 7: as issues about Western assistance and other types of conditions 378 00:20:04,160 --> 00:20:05,960 Speaker 7: that the Russians have already laid out and have stuck 379 00:20:06,000 --> 00:20:08,600 Speaker 7: through throughout the war. It's also possible you might see 380 00:20:08,600 --> 00:20:11,679 Speaker 7: a partial ceasefire. For example, some people have floated the 381 00:20:11,680 --> 00:20:15,000 Speaker 7: idea of an air ceasefire which would limit air strikes 382 00:20:15,040 --> 00:20:17,760 Speaker 7: between the two sides, and then the continued fighting would 383 00:20:17,760 --> 00:20:20,159 Speaker 7: be on the ground, and that would help both sides. 384 00:20:20,520 --> 00:20:24,280 Speaker 7: Russia has experienced some costs from Ukrainian drone and missile 385 00:20:24,320 --> 00:20:27,720 Speaker 7: strikes on their oil facilities, and Ukraine is certainly suffering 386 00:20:27,840 --> 00:20:31,080 Speaker 7: under Russian attacks on civilian infrastructure and cities. 387 00:20:32,400 --> 00:20:35,080 Speaker 2: We finally got some details on this meeting. As I'm 388 00:20:35,119 --> 00:20:37,879 Speaker 2: sure you've seen, it will be in anchorage at the 389 00:20:37,920 --> 00:20:42,760 Speaker 2: Elmendorf Richardson Joint Base. What kind of facilities should be 390 00:20:42,800 --> 00:20:45,159 Speaker 2: provided here to these two meet in a hangar? I 391 00:20:45,240 --> 00:20:47,399 Speaker 2: keep asking the same question. I'm just wondering what the 392 00:20:47,400 --> 00:20:50,480 Speaker 2: optics will be and the idea of Vladimir Putin on 393 00:20:50,520 --> 00:20:53,880 Speaker 2: a US military base pretty striking at this particular moment, 394 00:20:53,920 --> 00:20:54,240 Speaker 2: isn't it. 395 00:20:55,200 --> 00:20:55,360 Speaker 3: Yeah? 396 00:20:55,400 --> 00:20:57,320 Speaker 7: I agree, and I had the same sort of thought. 397 00:20:57,359 --> 00:21:00,960 Speaker 7: I mean, military bases are typically pretty spartan and and 398 00:21:01,000 --> 00:21:04,919 Speaker 7: not not what you normally see for these high level meetings. However, 399 00:21:05,040 --> 00:21:08,040 Speaker 7: it is also true that, you know, at the commanding 400 00:21:08,080 --> 00:21:11,760 Speaker 7: general level, there are usually well adored conference rooms that 401 00:21:11,800 --> 00:21:15,120 Speaker 7: are used for these types types of high level meetings, 402 00:21:15,320 --> 00:21:18,480 Speaker 7: even among military leaders. So I'm sure that they'll be using, 403 00:21:18,520 --> 00:21:21,359 Speaker 7: you know, one of one of these types of more 404 00:21:21,920 --> 00:21:25,800 Speaker 7: high level and rooms. But I think it is interesting 405 00:21:25,800 --> 00:21:28,359 Speaker 7: that they chose the military base. Obviously, the cho the 406 00:21:28,440 --> 00:21:32,280 Speaker 7: choice of Alaska itself is an interesting one. So you know, 407 00:21:32,320 --> 00:21:33,840 Speaker 7: we'll see, we'll see what it looks like. 408 00:21:35,200 --> 00:21:38,960 Speaker 2: Is this meeting flawed in its initial concept and that 409 00:21:39,000 --> 00:21:42,440 Speaker 2: it's one on one President talked about maybe a trilateral 410 00:21:42,520 --> 00:21:46,360 Speaker 2: the second time around, But the idea of President Zelenski 411 00:21:46,440 --> 00:21:49,360 Speaker 2: waiting by the phone to hear what happened is also curious. 412 00:21:51,119 --> 00:21:54,080 Speaker 7: Well, you know, I think that this meeting is really, 413 00:21:54,520 --> 00:21:58,359 Speaker 7: as President Trump himself has said and his his staff 414 00:21:58,359 --> 00:22:02,080 Speaker 7: has made clear, you know, a chance for listening and understanding. 415 00:22:02,119 --> 00:22:06,000 Speaker 7: And the United States and Russia have a bilateral relationship 416 00:22:06,000 --> 00:22:09,040 Speaker 7: that is quite tense and that exists outside of what's 417 00:22:09,040 --> 00:22:12,159 Speaker 7: happening in Ukraine. And I do think it's important that 418 00:22:12,160 --> 00:22:14,960 Speaker 7: the two leaders meet on a bilateral at a bilateral 419 00:22:15,040 --> 00:22:18,320 Speaker 7: level and try to work out some of these issues 420 00:22:18,320 --> 00:22:20,480 Speaker 7: as well. I think that, well, the focus will be 421 00:22:20,600 --> 00:22:22,840 Speaker 7: on Ukraine, it's hard to imagine that some of the 422 00:22:22,840 --> 00:22:27,960 Speaker 7: bilateral issues between the two nations won't come up. And really, 423 00:22:28,000 --> 00:22:30,439 Speaker 7: we see here that Zelensky has made clear he's ready 424 00:22:30,560 --> 00:22:33,359 Speaker 7: for a sea's fire on acceptable terms, and he's willing 425 00:22:33,359 --> 00:22:36,520 Speaker 7: to at least have negotiations and discussions. We have seen 426 00:22:36,560 --> 00:22:39,280 Speaker 7: Putin has been much less willing to end this war. 427 00:22:39,480 --> 00:22:41,840 Speaker 7: So if Putin is the party right now that is 428 00:22:42,480 --> 00:22:45,119 Speaker 7: harder to bring to the table, it makes sense to 429 00:22:45,119 --> 00:22:46,800 Speaker 7: have a one on one meeting and try to figure 430 00:22:46,800 --> 00:22:50,159 Speaker 7: out what's required to change that. This is also the 431 00:22:50,359 --> 00:22:52,399 Speaker 7: format that I think Trump is very comfortable in these 432 00:22:52,440 --> 00:22:57,320 Speaker 7: bilateral meetings with other world leaders, and so that's something 433 00:22:57,320 --> 00:23:00,840 Speaker 7: that he gravitates towards. But he hasn't shown in past 434 00:23:01,200 --> 00:23:04,840 Speaker 7: phone calls and interactions with Putin over the past six 435 00:23:04,960 --> 00:23:07,720 Speaker 7: or seven months, he hasn't given any part of Ukraine away. 436 00:23:07,840 --> 00:23:11,679 Speaker 7: He hasn't sacrificed ukraine security or its sovereignty. So I 437 00:23:11,720 --> 00:23:14,639 Speaker 7: think the idea that he's ready to serve Ukraine on 438 00:23:14,680 --> 00:23:18,000 Speaker 7: a plate doesn't match up with what we've seen in 439 00:23:18,040 --> 00:23:18,879 Speaker 7: the recent past. 440 00:23:20,000 --> 00:23:23,000 Speaker 2: Well, what do you make of the European counter offer, 441 00:23:23,000 --> 00:23:25,439 Speaker 2: if I can call it that, a counter offer to 442 00:23:25,480 --> 00:23:27,920 Speaker 2: reports that the lines essentially would be frozen in place 443 00:23:27,920 --> 00:23:30,480 Speaker 2: that I know the President's talked about land swap, and 444 00:23:30,520 --> 00:23:32,760 Speaker 2: we don't really have a sense of exactly what that means. 445 00:23:32,800 --> 00:23:36,560 Speaker 2: But Vladimir Putin wants the dun Boss and he wants Crimea. 446 00:23:36,800 --> 00:23:39,240 Speaker 2: The European leaders on that phone call have a different 447 00:23:39,280 --> 00:23:43,960 Speaker 2: idea one inch for one inch, and this doesn't sound 448 00:23:44,000 --> 00:23:46,359 Speaker 2: like something that Vladimir Putin is ready to talk about. 449 00:23:46,359 --> 00:23:51,399 Speaker 2: But any retreat of Ukrainian forces from Ukrainian controlled territory 450 00:23:51,440 --> 00:23:55,800 Speaker 2: would be matched inch for inch by Russia's withdrawal from 451 00:23:55,840 --> 00:23:59,199 Speaker 2: occupied Ukrainian territory. Is there a world in which that 452 00:23:59,240 --> 00:23:59,760 Speaker 2: could happen? 453 00:24:01,800 --> 00:24:03,440 Speaker 7: I mean, it's not, it's not out of the question. 454 00:24:03,520 --> 00:24:05,600 Speaker 7: It just the question is what are the other terms 455 00:24:05,600 --> 00:24:08,119 Speaker 7: of the ceasefire and what are those lamp swaps look like? 456 00:24:08,160 --> 00:24:10,399 Speaker 7: I mean, in any in any sort of ceasefire, there 457 00:24:10,440 --> 00:24:12,760 Speaker 7: are adjustments to the line. So even if the line 458 00:24:12,800 --> 00:24:15,320 Speaker 7: is frozen where the front line currently is and that 459 00:24:15,359 --> 00:24:19,760 Speaker 7: becomes the new de facto border, even it would be 460 00:24:19,840 --> 00:24:22,960 Speaker 7: expected that there would be adjustments to that line to 461 00:24:23,000 --> 00:24:24,960 Speaker 7: make sure that cities are on one side or the other, 462 00:24:25,040 --> 00:24:29,400 Speaker 7: to make sure that geographic features, you know, are are 463 00:24:29,440 --> 00:24:31,760 Speaker 7: taken into account. So I think that this idea of 464 00:24:31,840 --> 00:24:34,680 Speaker 7: land swaps, you know, we may not be talking about 465 00:24:34,760 --> 00:24:38,280 Speaker 7: huge swaths of territory. And you know, Russia has put 466 00:24:38,320 --> 00:24:41,040 Speaker 7: forward a set of conditions. You know, one set of 467 00:24:41,080 --> 00:24:45,440 Speaker 7: conditions is this Ukrainian withdrawal from territory that it currently controls. 468 00:24:45,760 --> 00:24:49,280 Speaker 7: But there's another set of conditions, another option, ceasefire option 469 00:24:49,320 --> 00:24:51,680 Speaker 7: that Putin has put on the table, and that is 470 00:24:51,720 --> 00:24:55,440 Speaker 7: freezing the conflict along the current front line. But then 471 00:24:55,440 --> 00:24:58,800 Speaker 7: it comes with other conditions, including things like freezing of 472 00:24:58,840 --> 00:25:04,120 Speaker 7: Western security as AID limits or a demobilization which would 473 00:25:04,119 --> 00:25:08,119 Speaker 7: shrink the size of Ukraine's military. So Putin has suggested 474 00:25:08,160 --> 00:25:11,240 Speaker 7: some flexibility in setting out a range of terms. So 475 00:25:11,440 --> 00:25:13,800 Speaker 7: we shouldn't fixate only on territory here. It's not the 476 00:25:13,840 --> 00:25:16,720 Speaker 7: only issue that's at stake, all. 477 00:25:16,680 --> 00:25:19,480 Speaker 2: Right, Really interesting and appreciate your helping us get ready 478 00:25:19,520 --> 00:25:22,720 Speaker 2: for this important meeting. Jennifer Kavna, thank you so much 479 00:25:23,359 --> 00:25:26,960 Speaker 2: the insights from Defense priorities. I'm Joe Matthew in Washington 480 00:25:26,960 --> 00:25:29,440 Speaker 2: and we want to assemble our political panel for their 481 00:25:29,480 --> 00:25:32,520 Speaker 2: take on all of this. This is a remarkable political moment, 482 00:25:32,520 --> 00:25:35,879 Speaker 2: and you could argue the most important meeting of Donald 483 00:25:35,880 --> 00:25:40,200 Speaker 2: Trump's presidency in either turn for that matter. Lisa Camusa 484 00:25:40,240 --> 00:25:44,119 Speaker 2: Miller is here, Republican strategist, former communications director at the 485 00:25:44,280 --> 00:25:47,080 Speaker 2: RNC and host of the Friday Reporter podcast, along with 486 00:25:47,280 --> 00:25:52,320 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Politics contributor Adam Hodge, Democratic strategist managing director at 487 00:25:52,320 --> 00:25:56,040 Speaker 2: Bully Pulpit International. Adam, I'm going to start with you 488 00:25:56,280 --> 00:25:57,960 Speaker 2: just on the nuts and bolts here. What do you 489 00:25:58,000 --> 00:26:00,199 Speaker 2: make of the venue? There were questions about whether the 490 00:26:00,280 --> 00:26:02,879 Speaker 2: US should be a host country. Now we're going to 491 00:26:02,960 --> 00:26:08,960 Speaker 2: have a US military based as the venue for Vladimir Putin, 492 00:26:09,720 --> 00:26:12,600 Speaker 2: a pariah on the international stage, and a man in 493 00:26:12,640 --> 00:26:16,359 Speaker 2: fact who has an international warrant out for his arrest. 494 00:26:16,920 --> 00:26:20,280 Speaker 2: How should the optics be cared for here? And when 495 00:26:20,280 --> 00:26:22,639 Speaker 2: we talk about a one on one meeting, who's actually 496 00:26:22,640 --> 00:26:23,080 Speaker 2: in the room. 497 00:26:25,560 --> 00:26:29,240 Speaker 6: Well, I think taking a step back to the president's 498 00:26:29,240 --> 00:26:32,080 Speaker 6: first term when he had his previous bilateral meeting with 499 00:26:33,080 --> 00:26:35,480 Speaker 6: President Putin, shouldn't give us a whole lot of confidence 500 00:26:35,560 --> 00:26:39,240 Speaker 6: that America's interests will be front and center. I think 501 00:26:39,520 --> 00:26:43,400 Speaker 6: to your question about the optics. Hosting the Russian president 502 00:26:43,800 --> 00:26:47,640 Speaker 6: at a US base sends a terrible signal to our allies, 503 00:26:47,680 --> 00:26:51,199 Speaker 6: to our partners across Europe, to the Ukrainians, that we 504 00:26:51,280 --> 00:26:56,760 Speaker 6: would meet and host President Putin on US soil after 505 00:26:56,800 --> 00:27:00,480 Speaker 6: what he's done to attack our democracy, to attack our 506 00:27:00,480 --> 00:27:04,320 Speaker 6: allies and partners into unsettled democracies across the region. So 507 00:27:04,480 --> 00:27:07,959 Speaker 6: it sends a terrible signal. I'm not surprised that President Trump, 508 00:27:08,960 --> 00:27:12,680 Speaker 6: you know, doesn't want to, doesn't really care about what 509 00:27:12,720 --> 00:27:14,920 Speaker 6: that may mean from the you know, the chattering class 510 00:27:14,920 --> 00:27:18,879 Speaker 6: are focusing on cable TV. But I think it really 511 00:27:18,880 --> 00:27:21,240 Speaker 6: will send a real red flag to our allies and 512 00:27:21,280 --> 00:27:23,280 Speaker 6: partners in Europe, and that really matters globally. 513 00:27:25,200 --> 00:27:28,200 Speaker 2: Lisa, what's your thought on this. They're both going to 514 00:27:28,280 --> 00:27:31,320 Speaker 2: meet at some point during the day on Friday at 515 00:27:31,400 --> 00:27:36,879 Speaker 2: Elmendorf Richardson Joint Base in Anchorage. You don't have a 516 00:27:36,920 --> 00:27:39,320 Speaker 2: lot of options in Anchorage, by the way, to find 517 00:27:39,400 --> 00:27:41,879 Speaker 2: venue for these two. Who should be in the room 518 00:27:42,400 --> 00:27:46,240 Speaker 2: and who will be in the room. 519 00:27:46,400 --> 00:27:48,840 Speaker 8: Well, you know, Joe, I think Adam makes a really 520 00:27:48,920 --> 00:27:50,679 Speaker 8: good point, and it's hard to know who'll be in 521 00:27:50,720 --> 00:27:51,080 Speaker 8: the room. 522 00:27:51,480 --> 00:27:52,000 Speaker 7: The truth of. 523 00:27:52,000 --> 00:27:54,639 Speaker 8: It is is that if the message and the visuals 524 00:27:54,640 --> 00:27:58,639 Speaker 8: and all of the optics of this particular conversation are 525 00:27:58,720 --> 00:28:00,560 Speaker 8: definitely one that are going to be very difficult. So 526 00:28:00,840 --> 00:28:02,879 Speaker 8: I suspect that the president will be surrounded by his 527 00:28:03,000 --> 00:28:06,720 Speaker 8: top top leaders, and I suspect the same for Vladimir Putin. 528 00:28:06,760 --> 00:28:10,359 Speaker 8: He'll be surrounded by his leadership, and this will be 529 00:28:10,400 --> 00:28:13,400 Speaker 8: one that I think, regardless of how it goes, will 530 00:28:13,440 --> 00:28:15,760 Speaker 8: be one that will have to be messaged very carefully 531 00:28:16,600 --> 00:28:20,600 Speaker 8: and something that I think that overall, while historic, also 532 00:28:21,280 --> 00:28:24,320 Speaker 8: not incredibly encouraging, because I suspect that, regardless of what 533 00:28:24,640 --> 00:28:26,960 Speaker 8: happens in this meeting, Vladimir Putin is going to do 534 00:28:26,960 --> 00:28:29,520 Speaker 8: exactly what Vladimir Putin wants to do. And it's been 535 00:28:29,520 --> 00:28:33,240 Speaker 8: shown over and over again as the President has shared 536 00:28:33,280 --> 00:28:35,240 Speaker 8: messages about how he thinks things are going to happen 537 00:28:35,280 --> 00:28:37,200 Speaker 8: and what's going to happen in Ukraine and then those change. 538 00:28:38,080 --> 00:28:39,840 Speaker 8: I think the same will probably be true of this 539 00:28:39,880 --> 00:28:41,719 Speaker 8: as well. I think Vladimir Putin will use it as 540 00:28:42,080 --> 00:28:45,640 Speaker 8: a tool and a pawn really and how he messages, 541 00:28:45,800 --> 00:28:47,400 Speaker 8: how he works with the White House and now he 542 00:28:47,440 --> 00:28:49,120 Speaker 8: works with this administration. 543 00:28:49,640 --> 00:28:52,320 Speaker 2: Gaming expectations always a big part of this Adam. The 544 00:28:52,360 --> 00:28:55,080 Speaker 2: White House had been tamping down expectations the last couple 545 00:28:55,120 --> 00:28:58,000 Speaker 2: of days, saying, hey, this isn't about a peace deal here, 546 00:28:58,200 --> 00:29:00,840 Speaker 2: this is a feeling out session. President wants to know 547 00:29:00,880 --> 00:29:03,680 Speaker 2: where Putin's head is, and it seems like we have 548 00:29:03,720 --> 00:29:06,680 Speaker 2: a pretty good sense of where his head is. But 549 00:29:06,760 --> 00:29:09,160 Speaker 2: that does not sound like what we're hearing from this 550 00:29:09,320 --> 00:29:14,160 Speaker 2: call today between Trump, European leaders and President Zelenski of Ukraine, 551 00:29:14,200 --> 00:29:17,880 Speaker 2: in which Donald Trump said his goal is to arrive 552 00:29:17,920 --> 00:29:20,120 Speaker 2: at a ceasefire on Friday. Is that in the realm 553 00:29:20,200 --> 00:29:20,960 Speaker 2: of possibility. 554 00:29:23,160 --> 00:29:27,160 Speaker 6: I have a hard time believe that Ukraine, after all 555 00:29:27,200 --> 00:29:31,680 Speaker 6: they've been through, will agree to a ceasefire, given what 556 00:29:32,520 --> 00:29:36,280 Speaker 6: they've seen on the front lines and what has happened 557 00:29:37,040 --> 00:29:40,080 Speaker 6: across Kiev. I mean, let's not forget. Donald Trump has 558 00:29:40,160 --> 00:29:44,080 Speaker 6: multiple times told Putin to stop firing missiles in the Ukraine, 559 00:29:44,360 --> 00:29:46,840 Speaker 6: said he had a great call with him, and then 560 00:29:47,280 --> 00:29:50,120 Speaker 6: less than five or six hours later, the missiles were 561 00:29:50,200 --> 00:29:53,280 Speaker 6: launched again. You know, people were killed in Ukraine. So 562 00:29:54,280 --> 00:29:57,360 Speaker 6: I'd keep my powder a little dry on any expectations 563 00:29:57,400 --> 00:30:00,680 Speaker 6: about it grand breakthroughs because Vladier Putin has not shown 564 00:30:00,880 --> 00:30:05,200 Speaker 6: any willingness to abide by whether it's norms or just 565 00:30:05,240 --> 00:30:09,920 Speaker 6: to respect Ukraine's territorial sovereignty. So my expectations are as 566 00:30:10,000 --> 00:30:10,840 Speaker 6: low as they can get it. 567 00:30:10,920 --> 00:30:14,680 Speaker 2: Unfortunately, Well, how about you, Lisa, what should we be 568 00:30:14,760 --> 00:30:19,160 Speaker 2: looking for when these two men emerge from the meeting. 569 00:30:19,200 --> 00:30:21,360 Speaker 2: We expect Donald Trump will hold some kind of a 570 00:30:21,400 --> 00:30:25,240 Speaker 2: news conference or make an announcement to reporters. What will 571 00:30:25,240 --> 00:30:27,080 Speaker 2: he have to say? 572 00:30:27,400 --> 00:30:29,959 Speaker 8: Well, the President likes to demonstrate wins, and so I 573 00:30:30,000 --> 00:30:32,720 Speaker 8: suspect that that's precisely what we hear from him. But 574 00:30:32,800 --> 00:30:35,040 Speaker 8: to Adam's point, I also think we need to pay 575 00:30:35,160 --> 00:30:37,720 Speaker 8: very close attention to the movements that happen out of 576 00:30:37,760 --> 00:30:41,800 Speaker 8: Russia beyond that conversation, to see whether or not there 577 00:30:41,840 --> 00:30:45,320 Speaker 8: has any progress that has been made. Also to the 578 00:30:45,360 --> 00:30:47,680 Speaker 8: fact that the President is using this as an opportunity 579 00:30:47,720 --> 00:30:49,840 Speaker 8: and will continue to use this as an opportunitytunity to 580 00:30:49,880 --> 00:30:53,320 Speaker 8: demonstrate he's willing to have hard conversations that Joe Biden 581 00:30:53,360 --> 00:30:56,000 Speaker 8: and other presidents before him were not willing to have. 582 00:30:57,400 --> 00:30:59,880 Speaker 8: I'm not so sure that that matters if from the 583 00:31:00,240 --> 00:31:03,720 Speaker 8: meeting nothing happens from there, But I think that. You know, 584 00:31:03,720 --> 00:31:05,880 Speaker 8: we've seen this president over and over again take a 585 00:31:05,920 --> 00:31:08,480 Speaker 8: victory lap before the victory is ready to be celebrated, 586 00:31:08,480 --> 00:31:11,320 Speaker 8: and I suspect that that'll be exactly what happens after 587 00:31:11,360 --> 00:31:12,600 Speaker 8: this meeting occurs. 588 00:31:13,280 --> 00:31:17,280 Speaker 2: He's going to speak with European leaders afterward as well, 589 00:31:17,360 --> 00:31:22,600 Speaker 2: and apparently he's going to do an interview. We understand, Adam, 590 00:31:22,600 --> 00:31:25,600 Speaker 2: the rollout here is curious. It's a day trip to Alaska, 591 00:31:25,720 --> 00:31:28,480 Speaker 2: so they're not going to be together, presumably for all 592 00:31:28,520 --> 00:31:32,200 Speaker 2: that long. Will you trust the readout from each side, 593 00:31:32,240 --> 00:31:34,680 Speaker 2: because they may not agree, as we've seen in the past, 594 00:31:34,720 --> 00:31:37,680 Speaker 2: unless they hold a bilateral news conference, which I think 595 00:31:37,720 --> 00:31:39,960 Speaker 2: after last time around, the White House would prefer not 596 00:31:40,040 --> 00:31:40,320 Speaker 2: to do. 597 00:31:42,000 --> 00:31:44,840 Speaker 6: I mean, you're right there. I think given what happened 598 00:31:44,840 --> 00:31:47,840 Speaker 6: the last time, I mean, President Trump, you suffered from 599 00:31:47,880 --> 00:31:50,880 Speaker 6: that press conference for it's still hauntsome to this day. 600 00:31:51,480 --> 00:31:54,880 Speaker 6: But I think what you're seeing in this being potentially 601 00:31:54,960 --> 00:31:57,160 Speaker 6: one on one meeting with any other staff for people 602 00:31:57,240 --> 00:31:59,920 Speaker 6: in the room for the course of that meeting is 603 00:32:00,320 --> 00:32:04,200 Speaker 6: it seems like outgrowth of what happened during the President's 604 00:32:04,200 --> 00:32:08,160 Speaker 6: first turn. We know that he was deeply suspicious of 605 00:32:08,200 --> 00:32:11,719 Speaker 6: the professional staff listening in on his foreign leader calls. 606 00:32:11,720 --> 00:32:13,640 Speaker 6: We know they've taken steps from the beginning of this 607 00:32:13,680 --> 00:32:18,240 Speaker 6: administration to shield any insight from calls within the National 608 00:32:18,240 --> 00:32:21,640 Speaker 6: Security Council, and I think it leaves them at a detriment. 609 00:32:21,680 --> 00:32:23,640 Speaker 6: I think it leaves the rest of the US government 610 00:32:23,640 --> 00:32:27,400 Speaker 6: at a detriment to have that sort of closed cloak 611 00:32:27,440 --> 00:32:32,400 Speaker 6: around the foreign leader conversations, because it is important for 612 00:32:32,440 --> 00:32:36,680 Speaker 6: the entire government to understand exactly what was discussed and 613 00:32:36,760 --> 00:32:40,600 Speaker 6: how they all then take marching orders and go go 614 00:32:40,680 --> 00:32:42,479 Speaker 6: from there if they all have a sense of how 615 00:32:42,440 --> 00:32:46,000 Speaker 6: they're beating unfolded. So there's a real risk there, and 616 00:32:46,200 --> 00:32:49,480 Speaker 6: I wish I had more confidence. If they end up 617 00:32:49,480 --> 00:32:51,480 Speaker 6: in a cease fire, great, we'll give him all the 618 00:32:51,480 --> 00:32:54,640 Speaker 6: credit he deserves, But I'm deeply skeptical. 619 00:32:55,720 --> 00:32:58,160 Speaker 2: Well, you wonder who gets to the microphones first. Sometimes 620 00:32:58,160 --> 00:32:59,800 Speaker 2: out the way, that's the way these things go on 621 00:32:59,800 --> 00:33:02,960 Speaker 2: the on. You both know about this, having run media 622 00:33:03,000 --> 00:33:07,240 Speaker 2: operations like this, remembering Scott Bessen couldn't get to reporters 623 00:33:07,240 --> 00:33:10,760 Speaker 2: before the Chinese did following the trade talks most recently. 624 00:33:10,880 --> 00:33:13,640 Speaker 2: So what's it going to be, Lisa? A listening exercise, 625 00:33:13,960 --> 00:33:20,160 Speaker 2: as Caroline Levitt called it yesterday or a peace negotiation, boy. 626 00:33:20,480 --> 00:33:22,720 Speaker 8: I mean, I think it'll probably be a listening exercise. 627 00:33:23,000 --> 00:33:27,880 Speaker 8: I think the way that the perception behind the way 628 00:33:27,880 --> 00:33:31,080 Speaker 8: that Vladimir Putin views this relationship and the relationship that 629 00:33:31,160 --> 00:33:35,320 Speaker 8: Donald Trump holds out as his connection with the Russian 630 00:33:35,400 --> 00:33:38,120 Speaker 8: leader are two very very different things. And I think, 631 00:33:38,440 --> 00:33:40,960 Speaker 8: you know, it really feels like Vladimir Putin has the 632 00:33:41,000 --> 00:33:43,560 Speaker 8: upper hand here and Donald Trump wants to make that 633 00:33:43,640 --> 00:33:46,400 Speaker 8: not look the way that it is. But to me, 634 00:33:46,640 --> 00:33:49,560 Speaker 8: it seems like Putin is using Trump as a pawn 635 00:33:49,600 --> 00:33:51,880 Speaker 8: in this bigger game that he's playing with the globe. 636 00:33:52,240 --> 00:33:54,680 Speaker 8: And so while it's a listening session, I suspect too, 637 00:33:54,720 --> 00:33:58,040 Speaker 8: as you mentioned earlier, that this is them setting the 638 00:33:58,520 --> 00:34:01,320 Speaker 8: groundwork and setting really the tone for what will be 639 00:34:01,880 --> 00:34:04,600 Speaker 8: just another meeting that has almost no outcome. 640 00:34:05,720 --> 00:34:07,920 Speaker 2: We're gonna have special if I can just more what 641 00:34:08,000 --> 00:34:10,359 Speaker 2: happens on Friday. Adam, I'm sorry we're out of time 642 00:34:10,400 --> 00:34:13,200 Speaker 2: against a heartbreak here, but we really appreciate the insights. 643 00:34:13,239 --> 00:34:17,200 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Politics contributor Adam Hodge, Bully Pulpit International, and Lisa 644 00:34:17,239 --> 00:34:23,040 Speaker 2: Kumuso Will the former RNC Communications directly Thanks for listening 645 00:34:23,120 --> 00:34:26,400 Speaker 2: to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe 646 00:34:26,480 --> 00:34:29,160 Speaker 2: if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you 647 00:34:29,200 --> 00:34:31,960 Speaker 2: get your podcasts, and you can find us live every 648 00:34:32,000 --> 00:34:36,240 Speaker 2: weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg dot com.