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Speaker 1: Hey, guys, ready or not, twenty twenty four is here

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Speaker 1: and we here at breaking points, are already thinking of

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Speaker 1: ways we can up our game for this critical election.

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Speaker 2: We rely on our premium subs to expand coverage, upgrade

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Speaker 2: the studio ad staff give you, guys, the best independent coverage.

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Speaker 3: That is possible.

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Speaker 2: If you like what we're all about, it just means

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Speaker 2: the absolute world to have your support.

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Speaker 3: But enough with that, let's get to the show.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, everybody, Happy Thursday. Have an amazing show for

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Speaker 2: everybody today.

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Speaker 3: What do we have, christ Pal, Indeed we do.

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Speaker 1: Dave Wagel is going to be here in studio. He

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Speaker 1: is just back from Wisconsin. He was hitting some doors

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Speaker 1: there talking to actual voters about how they're thinking about

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Speaker 1: this election. We're going to talk to him about that,

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Speaker 1: the gender gap, the new Trump Epstein groping allegations, and

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Speaker 1: how much that plays or doesn't play into this election.

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Speaker 4: So that'll be interesting.

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Speaker 1: We're also taking a look at new comments from John Kelly,

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Speaker 1: who was Trump's chief of staff, saying that Trump was

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Speaker 1: a fascist, also saying that he thought.

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Speaker 4: That Hitler did some good things and wanted.

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Speaker 1: Hitler's generals to his generals be more like Hitler's generals.

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Speaker 1: Kamala Harris really leaning into this as the campaign is

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Speaker 1: in its wanning days, so a lot to get into there.

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Speaker 1: Kamala also had a CNN town hall last night, so

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Speaker 1: we pulled some of those sort of highlights and low

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Speaker 1: lights and interesting moments from that to break down for

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Speaker 1: you as well. There's another thing we wanted to take

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Speaker 1: a look at here, which is both the substantive issue

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Speaker 1: of housing affordability and also how that may really be

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Speaker 1: impacting the vote, especially in Sun belt states and perhaps

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Speaker 1: in particular in the state of Nevada, something that we've

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Speaker 1: been wanting to tackle for a while, and obviously we've

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Speaker 1: been talking about housing here for quite a while on

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Speaker 1: how this was a sleeper issue it seems to be

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Speaker 1: playing out in terms of the election right now. Also

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Speaker 1: wanted to take a moment to focus on the former

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Speaker 1: CEO of Abercrombie and Fitch who has now been charged

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Speaker 1: with sex trafficking. The allegations are horrifying, They are quite stunning.

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Speaker 1: I mean, obviously this was and is an iconic American brand,

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Speaker 1: especially like when I was growing up, when soccer was

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Speaker 1: growing up as well. So I'm going to dig in

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Speaker 1: to that, we also have some updates for you. Out

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Speaker 1: of the Middle East is really propaganda about a Lebanese

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Speaker 1: hospital debunked live by BBC. Quite interesting there, and Sager

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Speaker 1: is taking a look at how we should think about

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Speaker 1: our votes. I'm looking forward to that one.

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Speaker 2: How to vote, but not it's an instruction guide on

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Speaker 2: how to vote.

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Speaker 4: You're not like telling people who to vote for.

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Speaker 2: That's exactly I would never pray tell people how to

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Speaker 2: vote for to help people evaluate exactly right, which I

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Speaker 2: think is helpful. As Crystal said, we're going to get

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Speaker 2: to Dave Wygel before we get to that. Thank you

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Speaker 2: so much for our premium subscribers, everybody who's been taking advantage.

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Speaker 2: We will reveal our exclusive maps and predictions here for everybody.

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Speaker 2: Just twelve days to go until that election. How many

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Speaker 2: shows is that for shows until the presidential elections.

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Speaker 3: We'll think about it that way.

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Speaker 2: If you want to take advantage, you can go ahead

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Speaker 2: Breakingpoints dot Com become a premium subscriber. Let's get to

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Speaker 2: Dave Wygel. Joining us now is Dave Weigel. It's semaphorrescritch

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Speaker 2: to see you, man.

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Speaker 5: It's good to see you. Thanks for having me.

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Speaker 2: Absolutely so let's break down a little bit of a

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Speaker 2: media and a Trump accuser story kind of broke out

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Speaker 2: yesterday started off with a lot of speculation from Mark

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Speaker 2: Halprin over at Worldwide News his substack, and he said

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Speaker 2: that there was a story floating out there that if

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Speaker 2: it came out, it would end Trump's campaign. Let's take

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Speaker 2: a listen.

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Speaker 6: These last two weeks are going to be filled with

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Speaker 6: things like this. And I can tell you with that

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Speaker 6: going into detail, that I've been pitched a story about

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Speaker 6: Donald Trump now for about a week that if true,

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Speaker 6: would end his campaign, and there's all sorts of things

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Speaker 6: like that flying around.

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Speaker 5: I'm not the only one who's been pitched it if true.

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Speaker 3: Was going to end the campaign.

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Speaker 2: People said, wow, it must be really some of there's

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Speaker 2: all these rumors flying around out there day. I'm sure

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Speaker 2: he saw. And then finally it came out. And I'm

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Speaker 2: not going to diminish per se, but like you know,

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Speaker 2: it's certainly not campaign ending in.

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Speaker 4: Mind for Donald Trump.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, let's put this up there on the screen. This

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Speaker 3: was a Stacy Williams.

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Speaker 2: She is a ex model and a former associate of

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Speaker 2: Jeffrey Epstein. She says that Donald Trump quote Groape mean

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Speaker 2: what felt like a twisted game with Epstein. This was

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Speaker 2: back in nineteen ninety two at a Christmas party, she says,

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Speaker 2: after being introduced to him by Epstein in a Trump

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Speaker 2: tower or elevator. So, I guess there's a couple of

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Speaker 2: things we wanted to talk to you about. First of all,

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Speaker 2: both the details of the story this alleged like would

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Speaker 2: it end his campaign? Just news wise? I checked of

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Speaker 2: the morning newsletters. I think it was only Politico Morning

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Speaker 2: Playbook that even linked out to the story in the bottom.

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Speaker 2: So it doesn't seem to be taking all that seriously.

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Speaker 2: So what's your perspective here?

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Speaker 5: He didn't in the campaign yet.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, Yeah, still waiting.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, I don't think I've been pitched the thing that

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Speaker 7: help he's talking about.

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Speaker 5: I saw Tom BEBVAM talked about it too.

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Speaker 7: Yes, all of us who've been out there talking to

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Speaker 7: vout talking to voters. I was in Wisconsin this last week.

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Speaker 7: It's hard for us to imagine a story that would

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Speaker 7: qualify it like this because Trump, this is this is

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Speaker 7: the oldest news in the campaign. Trump Trump can survive

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Speaker 7: all sorts of things because there's a heuristic for his

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Speaker 7: voters and the voters who moved to him in the

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Speaker 7: last year or two years, that whatever he does wrong,

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Speaker 7: whatever his personal failings, look at his record, it doesn't matter.

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Speaker 7: And and this is something that was true when Bill

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Speaker 7: Clinton was running for reelection in different ways. I'm not

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Speaker 7: trying to be too glib and compare them, but voters

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Speaker 7: have set up in their mind things were good enough

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Speaker 7: when he was president to spit all that scandal. I

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Speaker 7: cannot pay attention to it. Would this work if he

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Speaker 7: was if he was a random guy running for Senate,

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Speaker 7: probably not. Doesn't work if it's Donald Trump? Yes, So

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Speaker 7: what you can name a few things in the last

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Speaker 7: few weeks that someone running for a lower office might

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Speaker 7: have been wrecked by and they don't wreck Trump because

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Speaker 7: of that, because of that mindset voters have.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, are we convinced like this is the story.

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Speaker 3: He'll oh from what I asked around broadcast. Yeah, also

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Speaker 3: all this.

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Speaker 1: Like Charlie Kirk and all these like you know, pro

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Speaker 1: flitzers who said something about like an aide fake. So

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Speaker 1: I don't anyway, I don't know, but yeah, I agree

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Speaker 1: with the analysis.

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Speaker 3: You've both offered.

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Speaker 4: Let me play devil's advocate, which is.

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Speaker 1: The Harris campaign really seems to be banking on the

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Speaker 1: sort of like moderate female character, Yeah, like Nicky Hayley

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Speaker 1: type voter. And at the same time, Trump's approval ratings

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Speaker 1: are a little bit higher than they were last time around,

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Speaker 1: and certainly they were in twenty sixteen. So I think

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Speaker 1: part of that is people have kind of memory hold

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Speaker 1: some of the most salacious allegations, some of his most

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Speaker 1: silacious and horrifying acts, and so this again brings up like,

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Speaker 1: this is a guy who's been seriously accused of this

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Speaker 1: type of behavior, sexual assault, groping, et.

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Speaker 4: Cetera, et cetera.

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Speaker 1: You throw in there at Jeffrey Epstein connect this former

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Speaker 1: model alleges that they were very close friends, Donald Trump

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Speaker 1: and Jeffrey Epstein, and it does sort of potentially exacerbate

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Speaker 1: that gender divide, which is what the Harris campaign is

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Speaker 1: really banking on, being able to get enough women on

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Speaker 1: their side between Trump's behavior and the issue of abortion

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Speaker 1: to be able to put them over the top.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, you can go too far and make some voters

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Speaker 7: think that he's being put upon, that he's being falsely accused.

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Speaker 7: The idea of the AI video that would be smart.

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Speaker 7: I think to fight a video that's damaging and claimant say.

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Speaker 7: I was at the Post when Amy Gardner, my colleague,

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Speaker 7: got the audio of Trump pressuring Brad Raft, and immediately

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Speaker 7: saw people try to spin.

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Speaker 5: That out of consistence.

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Speaker 7: You can have something rock solid and people will say

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Speaker 7: it's not true. But that's what they're trying to do, right,

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Speaker 7: freezing people's minds before they vote. Do you really want

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Speaker 7: to go through all of this for four years? You're

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Speaker 7: really going to go for all of it with a

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Speaker 7: seventy or eight year old president with somebody in the wings.

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Speaker 7: If he's damaged, would Jadvans take over? They do want

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Speaker 7: to throw not in the way that a confident campaign

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Speaker 7: that's going to win and it feels like it feels

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Speaker 7: like it's locked up.

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Speaker 5: Not in that way.

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Speaker 7: They are trying to draw attention to think you saw

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Speaker 7: this with the Vice President yesterday putting out a statement

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Speaker 7: on this Jeffrey Goldberg Atlantic article that is not an

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Speaker 7: article that forty eight percent of the country is going

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Speaker 7: to take seriously. They have a mechanism by now which

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Speaker 7: they don't take it seriously, But that is what they're

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Speaker 7: trying to do. And I saw some of that Wisconsin.

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Speaker 7: They are getting some Republican endorsements, people who were even

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Speaker 7: on the fence or voted for Trump in twenty twenty.

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Speaker 7: They are getting that with the argument that, look, whatever

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Speaker 7: her faults, do you really want to put up with

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Speaker 7: this sky again? Is that compelling? It has papered over

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Speaker 7: some of her issues and it's a lot. Maybe it's

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Speaker 7: allowed her. Maybe she she'd be doing better, she she

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Speaker 7: had more of this to appeal to those Republicans without

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Speaker 7: specifically saying yes, I'm going to give up on not

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Speaker 7: restoring remain in Mexico or yes I'm going to I'm

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Speaker 7: going to forever give up on a thing that me

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Speaker 7: and Biden did. She's not going that far. The replacement is,

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Speaker 7: look at this crazy stuff that you don't want with Trump.

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Speaker 2: You brought up Wisconsin trying to scribe our Yeah, yeah,

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Speaker 2: you just spent a long time there. Yeah. So, and

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Speaker 2: we were talking a little bit behind the scenes about

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Speaker 2: all of the Trump ads against common Yeah, so what

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Speaker 2: do the Kamma ads against Trump look like? Are they

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Speaker 2: equally as inundating and argues it the character argument, because

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Speaker 2: that's what they're.

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Speaker 3: Closing on, that's what they've decided.

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Speaker 7: So interestingly, they're not response ads, which is what you

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Speaker 7: see in a lot of races. I'm being attacked with

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Speaker 7: three different ads on something negative, in this case government

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Speaker 7: funded sex surgeries for prisoners right not to really get

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Speaker 7: the entire issue, but there are three ads on that,

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Speaker 7: and the campaign's not putting out ads saying no, I

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Speaker 7: didn't or here's why I did that. It's putting out

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Speaker 7: ads one about her economic agenda too, about kind of

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Speaker 7: January sixth, Trump's character, and that is after twenty twenty two.

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Speaker 7: You can't tell Democrats that people don't care about this

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Speaker 7: told nobody cares and then it was decisive in a

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Speaker 7: lot of suburbs. But they are They're letting a lot

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Speaker 7: of attacks go by or to connect on her on

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Speaker 7: that record. They really are not doing a lot, and

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Speaker 7: you've seen it. It's been the hardest question for her

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Speaker 7: to answer interviews is where she would where Biden got

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Speaker 7: something wrong, where she would change from Biden.

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Speaker 5: She's not doing that with the advertising.

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Speaker 7: She is just saying and I would actually say the

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Speaker 7: future forward, pack especially the super Pac very economic focus message.

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Speaker 7: So you do hear if you're watching TV, you're watching

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Speaker 7: Packers game. I guess it's got lucky because very exciting

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Speaker 7: one on Sunday, you do see, okay, she'd have this

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Speaker 7: kind of tax cut for me. I don't know how

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Speaker 7: sticky it was, because I went out with people canvassing too,

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Speaker 7: and you were finding voters who's at this point still

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Speaker 7: didn't know what her economic plan was, still didn't know

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Speaker 7: exactly how she'd restore row. But that's the strategy. It's

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Speaker 7: not let's hit back at everything Trump says. Let's just

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Speaker 7: come up with something that maybe the voter who's undecided say, well,

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Speaker 7: I'm just talking about crazy, negative stuff and she has

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Speaker 7: a plan. That's the impression they want people to leave,

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Speaker 7: not that she's fighting back on everything.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I feel like, in a sense, the Liz

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Speaker 1: Cheney tour is an effort to fight back against because

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Speaker 1: what is that the you know, transgender surgery. At Yes,

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Speaker 1: it's about the issue, but it's also about like, she

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Speaker 1: is this liberal San Franciscan who doesn't connect with American values.

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Speaker 1: And to me, the effort with the Liz Cheney tour,

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Speaker 1: which I have a million issues with I've talked about before,

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Speaker 1: but anyway, the effort with that is to be like,

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Speaker 1: look at these modern Republicans who are super comfy with me.

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Speaker 4: So I can't be that.

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Speaker 1: Crazy if Liz Cheney is willing to, you know, hang

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Speaker 1: out with me and endorse me and go and do

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Speaker 1: those town halls, et cetera. So in a way, I

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Speaker 1: feel like that's her effort to blunt the core of

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Speaker 1: that attack, which is like, you're too liberal to represent

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Speaker 1: all of America.

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Speaker 5: That's how it felt.

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Speaker 7: I went to one of those events in the in

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Speaker 7: the Milwaukee suburbs, and you did meet I met there

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Speaker 7: people who've been Republican up till twenty twenty and then

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Speaker 7: and then bailed.

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Speaker 5: But that's what I mean.

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Speaker 7: She wasn't saying here's a promise you can take home.

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Speaker 7: She was offered a couple of chances. She was better

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Speaker 7: at a couple of the other Cheney events. Hey, my

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Speaker 7: neighbors worried about something that you did in your past.

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Speaker 7: She didn't say what she would do differently. She didn't

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Speaker 7: even mention I'd put a Republican in the cabinet. I

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Speaker 7: think maybe because the Trump campaign has fed this idea

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Speaker 7: that she'd put chaining in a national security position, which

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Speaker 7: Democrats say they would not do. But you got her

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Speaker 7: on stage. Yeah, not a good topic to bring up

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Speaker 7: at that moment, but she's not. That is what's different.

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Speaker 7: Whereas Trump, whether you think it's credible or not, Trump

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Speaker 7: will just promise something. Trump will say, yes, I'm going

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Speaker 7: to get this thing that the culinary union wanted, this

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Speaker 7: tax cut.

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Speaker 5: I'm going to do it. Don't ask me how I'm

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Speaker 5: gonna do it. I'm gonna do it.

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Speaker 7: And Democrats are so much more cautious just generally. There's

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Speaker 7: the Trump campaign takes a lot of risks, puts out

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Speaker 7: a lot of ideas that might be hard to implement.

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Speaker 7: It knows that I think Republicans won't say how you

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Speaker 7: pay for that, because that's.

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Speaker 5: Not how they run. They want him to win.

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Speaker 7: And her campaign is much more cautious in saying no,

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Speaker 7: we will make some hard break, which is this lego less.

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Speaker 7: Chaney tour was a little more confounding because they were

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Speaker 7: getting a hit on one end for having Cheney campaign

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Speaker 7: aid pack, this Arab American pro Trump pack was running

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Speaker 7: ads in Michigan and I only saw photos I've been

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Speaker 7: Michigan yet that are just pictures of Cheney and and

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Speaker 7: hers together in Arab American neighborhoods. What is the are

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Speaker 7: they getting the gain on the other side by saying,

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Speaker 7: and Liz Cheney will validate Harris, don't worry about X issue.

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Speaker 5: It's not the issue.

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Speaker 7: It's just it's just democracy. I'm not it sounds too

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Speaker 7: plus eight, but it really is just the democracy issue

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Speaker 7: as opposed to the Hey, she's learned her lesson on immigration.

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Speaker 5: Hey, she's learned her lesson on crime.

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Speaker 7: Some of the ads do say that, but they're really

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Speaker 7: not delivering the stuff that somebody really on the fence

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Speaker 7: might might say, Oh, I'm confident I'm not going to

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Speaker 7: see ten million border crossers if she's president. That hasn't

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Speaker 7: happened yet.

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Speaker 2: So I saw Nate Silver make a point which is

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Speaker 2: contrary to this whole is change. He said, look, guys,

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Speaker 2: at the end of the day, I think that these

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Speaker 2: people are already called Harris voters when you don't need

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Speaker 2: to go after them. And that's I mean, intuitively kind

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Speaker 2: of accepts my bias towards the issue. But while you

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Speaker 2: were there, were they already Harris voters? Like what are

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Speaker 2: these people genuinely undecided? Like how do we square that question?

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Speaker 7: They were they felt odd about voting for a Democrat,

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Speaker 7: but they just couldn't bring this sullt to vote for Trump.

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Speaker 7: They probably were Harris voters because she's and you see

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Speaker 7: this now that now that the polling, I think there

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Speaker 7: are a couple of errors with the screens or a

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Speaker 7: couple of pickups with the voter screens, registered versus likely.

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Speaker 7: She is doing better in a lot of places with

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Speaker 7: the people more likely voters. And those are the guys

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Speaker 7: who were Republican twenty years ago, the women who were

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Speaker 7: the women who voted for Mitt Romney, who always vote,

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Speaker 7: who vote in school board elections, They have been fishing

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Speaker 7: in that pond while Trump goes for the less. I mean,

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Speaker 7: this is what the Trump Rogan interviews is about. Absolutely,

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Speaker 7: very obviously, there are people who hate politics, don't trust politicians.

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Speaker 7: I'm going to introduce myself and hey, maybe the registered,

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Speaker 7: maybe they'll turn out. This campaign is no, there is

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Speaker 7: an electorate. We've we know how to win this electorate

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Speaker 7: in twenty twenty barely. If we get ninety five percent

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Speaker 7: of that vote out, then we win. That is the theory.

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Speaker 7: It's much it's much more rebuilding than addition.

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Speaker 1: I want to ask you a little bit more about that,

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Speaker 1: But I'm also curious about your time going out with canvassers.

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Speaker 1: What type of doors were you hitting? Were they like

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Speaker 1: persuasion or were these you know, we got to get

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Speaker 1: you to turn out. And was there any particular issue

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Speaker 1: that was really being brought up again and again at

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Speaker 1: the doors.

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Speaker 5: These were It was a mix of so.

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Speaker 7: With Democrats, I did with Republicans in Arizona, mostly people

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Speaker 7: who were registered but hadn't turned their ballot in yet,

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Speaker 7: and they had they were they just needed the kick,

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Speaker 7: but they were going to vote for Trump. With Democrats,

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Speaker 7: I was with mostly Democratic household, some people who they

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Speaker 7: think voted Democratic because there's no party registration in the state,

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Speaker 7: and it was I need the people who were on

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Speaker 7: the fence needed clarity about what she was going to

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Speaker 7: do about the economy and prices, needed clarity.

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Speaker 5: About her abortions.

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Speaker 7: One stuck with me and in one part of kind

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Speaker 7: of central Wisconsin, a woman who just she was pro choice,

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Speaker 7: but she wasn't sure what Harris is actually going to do,

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Speaker 7: which is amazing they didn't break through how much time

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Speaker 7: they spent on it. I don't want to overestimate that

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Speaker 7: one thing, but I did put it into my data

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Speaker 7: base of voters are busy and not paying attention to

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Speaker 7: every promise they make.

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Speaker 5: She's not repeated enough.

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Speaker 7: I was not seeing I was not seeing huge shifts

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Speaker 7: from this. I remember going in twenty sixteen, and every

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Speaker 7: Democrat had this experience, including the ones I was canvassing with,

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Speaker 7: of going to what was a Obama neighborhood and finding

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Speaker 7: Trump voters, and that wasn't happening. It was These are

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Speaker 7: the voters who voted against Scott Walker in Wisconsin. These

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Speaker 7: are the voters who were, you know, gett able for

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Speaker 7: Ron Johnson but might have been voted for the governor Evers.

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Speaker 7: It's the margin of maybe five percent of the electorate

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Speaker 7: they were going for as opposed to Big Surprise. If

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Speaker 7: somebody wants to show me the big surprises, take me

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Speaker 7: to it. But they were, in this context going to

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Speaker 7: central Wisconsin white voters who were undecided. Democrats admit they're

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Speaker 7: not going to get the twenty twenty margin with black

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Speaker 7: men in Milwaukee. That is baked into the assumption that

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Speaker 7: these voters, who are pretty reliable and turn out but

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Speaker 7: have a couple of questions about what her agenda is,

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Speaker 7: they're easier to get than the black voters in Milwaukee

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Speaker 7: who are just done with politics and here more hear

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Speaker 7: nothing that they did that was that was good.

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Speaker 5: They haven't given up.

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Speaker 7: There are groups focused on that effort, but they're assuming

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Speaker 7: they're going to underperform.

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Speaker 2: The interesting secondary things sometimes is a seneate conversation, what

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Speaker 2: did you see there that was interesting?

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Speaker 7: Oh, it is a competitive race with Baldwin the advantage

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Speaker 7: and she's she sanator Baldwin Tamy. Baldwyn going for a

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Speaker 7: third term has been winning because she's getting five to

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Speaker 7: seven percent of Trump voters and Harris is getting two

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Speaker 7: percent That Delta Republicans are.

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Speaker 5: Trying to shrink.

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Speaker 7: So the ad part of it, what do you see

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Speaker 7: a lot is a sort of anti corruption, clean hands,

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Speaker 7: rich guy argument, which you see a lot in campaigns.

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Speaker 7: Hubby is personally very wealthy CEO of a bank and

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Speaker 7: is run he and Pacts have run several ads pointing

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Speaker 7: out that Baldwin has a girlfriend in finance and is

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Speaker 7: because they're not married, has not revealed her her girlfriend's finances.

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Speaker 5: Who knows what that means? Question?

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Speaker 7: And I asked, Hubby, are their votes she's taken? You

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Speaker 7: think are connected to her girl and in finance and

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Speaker 7: Democrats think that this is about reminding people that Baldwin

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Speaker 7: is gay. She's been elected as an op gate for

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Speaker 7: twenty some years, but they that has been the effort

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Speaker 7: to say, this is a corrupt Democrat who you can't

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Speaker 7: trust to deliver for you. If you're a Trump voter,

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Speaker 7: she's that's the reason you should bail on her. Maybe

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Speaker 7: vote on her twice, but bail now. But also very close.

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Speaker 7: I didn't see again in evidence of twenty sixteen style

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Speaker 7: massive shift somewhere, and even in the third district where

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Speaker 7: Republicans flipped it last less cycle and Trump won it,

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Speaker 7: they're very competitive. I was at with a Democrat the

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Speaker 7: Already we're seeing people who you'd think could be Republican,

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Speaker 7: rural voters very far from a city like a high vs.

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Speaker 7: Twenty minutes away, pretty happy with the Democrat because they

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Speaker 7: think Trump and the Republican incumbent were too rude and

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Speaker 7: they were too anti immigrants. So there's still the Wisconsin mix.

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Speaker 7: It just has really not their states were you know,

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Speaker 7: one hundred thousand people moved in and changed the alchemy

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Speaker 7: of the electorate. That's not happened to Wisconsin. It's very

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Speaker 7: frozen for twice.

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Speaker 2: Question important blue Wall dynamic is that they have not

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Speaker 2: had the same knit migration. They don't have a flute

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Speaker 2: like as an economy, so it's actually a little bit

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Speaker 2: more frozen in time, which is very much to Harris's benefit.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, last question for you, what do you make of

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Speaker 1: the podcast strategy because I'm just a little skeptical because

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Speaker 1: I've seen these candidates who have really leaned into like

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Speaker 1: new meat. I mean, that's very self serving. I would

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Speaker 1: love if we're very powerful, right, But you know, the

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Speaker 1: Vake Ramaswami was a podcast candidate. We saw how I

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Speaker 1: worked for him, Ronda Santis was like a podcast candidate,

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Speaker 1: Andrew Yang Toulci Gabbard and they generate a lot of

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Speaker 1: online enthusiasm and then they get like one percent in

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Speaker 1: the polls. So do you think that there's you know,

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Speaker 1: a significant group that is persuadable that's going to turn

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Speaker 1: out to vote, Like, do you think that this is

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Speaker 1: a fruitful strategy really for either campaign in large numbers?

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Speaker 7: Yeah, I'm less confident about the second part that somebody

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Speaker 7: is going to listen to this on their commute or

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Speaker 7: their drive and say, well, I was totally unengaged before

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Speaker 7: and now I'm going to vote for Donald Trump. Yeah,

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Speaker 7: that unless as a strategy of getting of getting the

439
00:19:05,080 --> 00:19:07,679
Speaker 7: campaign's daily message out and finding in the news cycle.

440
00:19:07,720 --> 00:19:09,760
Speaker 7: I think it's it's this was the cycle where it

441
00:19:09,840 --> 00:19:13,000
Speaker 7: changed over just the the benefits. What are going to

442
00:19:13,040 --> 00:19:17,360
Speaker 7: be the benefits of a Trump podcast appearance again Rogan

443
00:19:17,440 --> 00:19:20,080
Speaker 7: coming up versus the benefits of the Harrison town hall.

444
00:19:20,400 --> 00:19:22,520
Speaker 7: What is she trying to do in her media appearances.

445
00:19:22,560 --> 00:19:25,360
Speaker 7: It's it's not not make mistakes and look confident.

446
00:19:25,760 --> 00:19:27,359
Speaker 5: Uh, the Rogan.

447
00:19:27,080 --> 00:19:29,879
Speaker 7: Appearances, podcast appearances, that's part of that's that's built in

448
00:19:29,960 --> 00:19:32,480
Speaker 7: unless unless you're really tanking, you're in a in a

449
00:19:32,480 --> 00:19:35,000
Speaker 7: setting where people see you as as more human, you

450
00:19:35,000 --> 00:19:37,280
Speaker 7: deal with questions that are not got that are not gotcha's,

451
00:19:37,400 --> 00:19:39,920
Speaker 7: or not trying to pin you down on something. And

452
00:19:40,080 --> 00:19:41,960
Speaker 7: I think I think it's been if it's been effective.

453
00:19:42,520 --> 00:19:45,440
Speaker 7: Her most effective interviews have usually been those the podcasts.

454
00:19:45,720 --> 00:19:47,880
Speaker 7: Are they finding brand new people? No, But I think

455
00:19:47,880 --> 00:19:49,719
Speaker 7: they're trying to do different things. Trump is trying to

456
00:19:50,040 --> 00:19:53,320
Speaker 7: reassure people, uh, and and look likable and again fit

457
00:19:53,400 --> 00:19:55,280
Speaker 7: every problem you have with them in the in this

458
00:19:55,680 --> 00:19:57,959
Speaker 7: in this box. That that that's that has a bumper

459
00:19:57,960 --> 00:20:01,280
Speaker 7: stick here. Uh, I'll take more t more mean tweets

460
00:20:01,280 --> 00:20:03,880
Speaker 7: and cheap gas right now, That is every Trump message

461
00:20:04,200 --> 00:20:06,199
Speaker 7: with her. It is how do people look at her

462
00:20:06,240 --> 00:20:07,840
Speaker 7: and say, yeah, she can go toe toe with Putin?

463
00:20:07,880 --> 00:20:08,480
Speaker 5: I really do think.

464
00:20:08,520 --> 00:20:10,439
Speaker 7: And even at the DNC, which some people didn't like

465
00:20:10,640 --> 00:20:14,600
Speaker 7: the emphasis on defense and military, the reason they do

466
00:20:14,640 --> 00:20:17,480
Speaker 7: that is because she one is a woman and two

467
00:20:17,760 --> 00:20:21,040
Speaker 7: is not like a swaggering Hillary Clinton type does She's

468
00:20:21,119 --> 00:20:24,720
Speaker 7: not somebody who has been in a decision decision room

469
00:20:24,960 --> 00:20:28,080
Speaker 7: and may and people think, and you hear this anecdotally,

470
00:20:28,119 --> 00:20:30,280
Speaker 7: you'll hear where cause voters who say I'm not sure

471
00:20:30,320 --> 00:20:32,760
Speaker 7: how she'd handle a crisis, She's still tried to do that.

472
00:20:32,840 --> 00:20:36,120
Speaker 7: So that's what her interviews are about, not bump mop up,

473
00:20:36,119 --> 00:20:39,560
Speaker 7: messing up a question do that. Podcasts probably less useful

474
00:20:39,600 --> 00:20:41,280
Speaker 7: for that, And she does need to show that she

475
00:20:41,359 --> 00:20:43,640
Speaker 7: can say I can and I think this is why

476
00:20:43,680 --> 00:20:45,560
Speaker 7: Fox in the long run was good for her. And

477
00:20:45,560 --> 00:20:47,560
Speaker 7: though people want to be a disaster, oh, she could

478
00:20:47,600 --> 00:20:49,480
Speaker 7: handle that. She talked over him, she didn't let herself

479
00:20:49,480 --> 00:20:52,359
Speaker 7: get interrupted. Really, that atmospheric I heard more about from

480
00:20:52,440 --> 00:20:53,720
Speaker 7: voters than anything said.

481
00:20:53,560 --> 00:20:54,040
Speaker 8: In the interview.

482
00:20:54,200 --> 00:20:55,440
Speaker 3: That is such a good point.

483
00:20:55,760 --> 00:20:57,560
Speaker 2: Dave always read to talk to you man, and we'll

484
00:20:57,560 --> 00:20:58,879
Speaker 2: see you soon and hopefully thank you.

485
00:21:01,600 --> 00:21:02,960
Speaker 3: So, as we just discussed.

486
00:21:02,640 --> 00:21:04,879
Speaker 2: With Dave Weigel, there's being a lot here made of

487
00:21:05,000 --> 00:21:07,639
Speaker 2: Kamala and her attack on Donald Trump in the closing

488
00:21:07,720 --> 00:21:10,680
Speaker 2: days is all about character. So that has really come

489
00:21:10,760 --> 00:21:13,520
Speaker 2: into focus with some more recent allegations by General Kelly,

490
00:21:13,560 --> 00:21:17,280
Speaker 2: former Trump chief of staff. Kamala Harris took advantage of

491
00:21:17,280 --> 00:21:19,400
Speaker 2: that at a town hall yesterday. We're going to show

492
00:21:19,400 --> 00:21:20,800
Speaker 2: you more of the town hall later in the show.

493
00:21:20,800 --> 00:21:23,159
Speaker 2: What we wanted to start with this part. Specifically, she

494
00:21:23,200 --> 00:21:26,200
Speaker 2: says Donald Trump is quote a fascist. Let's take a listen.

495
00:21:26,400 --> 00:21:28,960
Speaker 8: We know that is why Mike Pence is not running

496
00:21:29,000 --> 00:21:32,240
Speaker 8: with him again, why the job was empty. And then

497
00:21:32,280 --> 00:21:36,240
Speaker 8: today we learned that John Kelly, a four star Marine

498
00:21:36,359 --> 00:21:41,280
Speaker 8: general who is his longest serving chief of staff, gave

499
00:21:41,320 --> 00:21:44,240
Speaker 8: an interview recently in the last two weeks of this election,

500
00:21:45,400 --> 00:21:49,520
Speaker 8: talking about how dangerous Donald Trump is. And I think

501
00:21:49,600 --> 00:21:53,719
Speaker 8: one has to think about why would someone who served

502
00:21:53,760 --> 00:21:57,080
Speaker 8: with him, who is not political, a four star Marine general,

503
00:21:58,160 --> 00:22:02,120
Speaker 8: why is he telling the American people now? And frankly,

504
00:22:02,160 --> 00:22:04,199
Speaker 8: I think of it as he's just putting out a

505
00:22:04,320 --> 00:22:06,199
Speaker 8: nine to one to one call to the American people.

506
00:22:07,600 --> 00:22:10,639
Speaker 8: Understand what could happen if Donald Trump were back in

507
00:22:10,720 --> 00:22:15,320
Speaker 8: the White House. And this time we must take very seriously.

508
00:22:15,720 --> 00:22:19,040
Speaker 8: Those folks who knew him best and who were career

509
00:22:19,160 --> 00:22:23,840
Speaker 8: people are not going to be there to hold him back.

510
00:22:24,040 --> 00:22:27,240
Speaker 9: You've quoted General Millie calling Donald Trump a fascist. You

511
00:22:27,240 --> 00:22:29,840
Speaker 9: yourself have not used that word to describe him. Let

512
00:22:29,840 --> 00:22:32,240
Speaker 9: me ask you tonight, do you think Donald Trump is

513
00:22:32,280 --> 00:22:32,760
Speaker 9: a fascist?

514
00:22:32,880 --> 00:22:34,080
Speaker 3: Yes? I do, Yes, I do.

515
00:22:34,119 --> 00:22:36,159
Speaker 2: All right, So all of this comes back from to

516
00:22:36,280 --> 00:22:38,720
Speaker 2: General Kelly, who was the chief of staff, longest serving

517
00:22:38,760 --> 00:22:41,400
Speaker 2: chief of staff under Donald Trump. A lot of these

518
00:22:41,400 --> 00:22:46,000
Speaker 2: comments came to light in an Atlantic article with Jeffrey Goldberg.

519
00:22:46,080 --> 00:22:48,000
Speaker 3: I will reserve some of the problems.

520
00:22:47,680 --> 00:22:49,119
Speaker 2: With that article for a little bit later, and at

521
00:22:49,200 --> 00:22:52,080
Speaker 2: least just play the audio from General Kelly himself. This

522
00:22:52,160 --> 00:22:54,800
Speaker 2: was audio that he is allowed to be released from

523
00:22:54,960 --> 00:22:57,119
Speaker 2: the New York Times talking about this alleged incident.

524
00:22:57,240 --> 00:22:57,960
Speaker 3: Let's take a listen.

525
00:22:58,119 --> 00:23:01,800
Speaker 10: She would a world once that you know, the Hitler

526
00:23:01,840 --> 00:23:05,240
Speaker 10: did some good things too, And of course, if you

527
00:23:05,320 --> 00:23:08,680
Speaker 10: know history, again, I think he's lacking in that.

528
00:23:09,640 --> 00:23:11,520
Speaker 11: But if you know what his you know, Hitler was

529
00:23:11,520 --> 00:23:14,680
Speaker 11: all about Uh, you'd be pretty hard to make an.

530
00:23:14,640 --> 00:23:16,040
Speaker 12: Argument that he did anything good.

531
00:23:16,280 --> 00:23:18,320
Speaker 13: So what would you What would you say when he

532
00:23:18,400 --> 00:23:20,439
Speaker 13: said to you that Hitler did a lot of good things?

533
00:23:20,560 --> 00:23:23,000
Speaker 12: Well, I tell him that, I said, you know, if

534
00:23:23,040 --> 00:23:25,600
Speaker 12: you first of all, you should never say that.

535
00:23:26,400 --> 00:23:27,920
Speaker 5: But if you knew what.

536
00:23:27,880 --> 00:23:32,120
Speaker 12: History Hitler was all about, from the beginning to the end, Uh,

537
00:23:32,480 --> 00:23:37,840
Speaker 12: everything he did was in support of his racist fascist

538
00:23:38,920 --> 00:23:44,840
Speaker 12: uh life, you know, you know philosophy, so that nothing

539
00:23:44,840 --> 00:23:47,360
Speaker 12: he did you could argue was good. It was certainly

540
00:23:47,400 --> 00:23:52,960
Speaker 12: not done for the right reason. And but he would

541
00:23:53,040 --> 00:23:53,920
Speaker 12: occasionally say that.

542
00:23:54,400 --> 00:23:56,400
Speaker 13: What would he say when you would lay that out

543
00:23:56,440 --> 00:23:57,800
Speaker 13: to him?

544
00:23:58,520 --> 00:24:02,240
Speaker 12: He just, you know, end of the conversation. Usually, certainly

545
00:24:03,119 --> 00:24:10,639
Speaker 12: the farmer president is in the far right area. Certainly

546
00:24:10,680 --> 00:24:12,399
Speaker 12: an authoritarian.

547
00:24:12,440 --> 00:24:19,080
Speaker 11: Admires people who are dictators. If he has said that,

548
00:24:20,720 --> 00:24:24,119
Speaker 11: so he certainly falls into the into the general definition

549
00:24:24,200 --> 00:24:26,520
Speaker 11: of fascists for sure.

550
00:24:28,600 --> 00:24:30,720
Speaker 7: If he was left to his own devices, would he

551
00:24:30,800 --> 00:24:33,280
Speaker 7: be a dictator if he didn't have people around him.

552
00:24:33,640 --> 00:24:35,840
Speaker 13: Oh, I think I think you'd.

553
00:24:35,400 --> 00:24:38,600
Speaker 12: Love to be. Uh, I think he'd love to be

554
00:24:38,840 --> 00:24:41,800
Speaker 12: just like he was in business. He could tell people

555
00:24:41,840 --> 00:24:45,000
Speaker 12: to do things and they would do it, and not

556
00:24:45,119 --> 00:24:50,600
Speaker 12: really bother too much about whether, uh what the legalities were.

557
00:24:50,400 --> 00:24:51,959
Speaker 3: And what all right? So there you go.

558
00:24:52,240 --> 00:24:54,119
Speaker 2: Would we want to react to this Crystal before we

559
00:24:54,119 --> 00:24:57,840
Speaker 2: play this? She made a big moment about this is

560
00:24:57,880 --> 00:25:01,760
Speaker 2: a press conference yesterday at the Vice Essential Residents. We

561
00:25:01,760 --> 00:25:03,480
Speaker 2: were on pins. We're like, oh, what is it? It

562
00:25:03,480 --> 00:25:05,280
Speaker 2: could be something big. She's she's going to come out,

563
00:25:05,320 --> 00:25:06,720
Speaker 2: she's doing a press conference. She was never does a

564
00:25:06,720 --> 00:25:09,040
Speaker 2: press conference. Didn't end up any taking any questions. It

565
00:25:09,080 --> 00:25:11,639
Speaker 2: was only like, you know, maybe a few minutes recounting

566
00:25:11,880 --> 00:25:14,679
Speaker 2: these comments. But what we seem to take away is

567
00:25:14,680 --> 00:25:17,959
Speaker 2: that because that article had come out from the Atlantic,

568
00:25:18,560 --> 00:25:21,200
Speaker 2: there was not as much media coverage I think as

569
00:25:21,240 --> 00:25:24,159
Speaker 2: the Democrats would have liked about it. So she was

570
00:25:24,200 --> 00:25:27,439
Speaker 2: trying to force the conversation both with I think the

571
00:25:27,480 --> 00:25:30,800
Speaker 2: fascist term and then also trying to get people, I

572
00:25:30,840 --> 00:25:33,400
Speaker 2: guess successfully for us to talk about it, because that

573
00:25:33,600 --> 00:25:36,760
Speaker 2: is her closing argument. Now with twelve days to go,

574
00:25:36,880 --> 00:25:41,240
Speaker 2: it's full on character. January sixth Dictatorship. I mean, listen,

575
00:25:41,320 --> 00:25:42,800
Speaker 2: I think it's been tried before. I don't think it's

576
00:25:42,800 --> 00:25:44,040
Speaker 2: going to work, but I'm curious what you think.

577
00:25:44,080 --> 00:25:45,399
Speaker 4: Well, it did work in twe twenty two.

578
00:25:45,840 --> 00:25:47,439
Speaker 3: I mean, yeah, but he wasn't on the ballot. So

579
00:25:47,880 --> 00:25:48,840
Speaker 3: that's what I just keep going.

580
00:25:48,840 --> 00:25:50,160
Speaker 4: So let me just say that was on the bout.

581
00:25:50,200 --> 00:25:53,199
Speaker 1: My own political bias is that this is not a

582
00:25:53,240 --> 00:25:56,120
Speaker 1: smart strategy. That is, my bias is to buy into

583
00:25:56,160 --> 00:25:58,280
Speaker 1: the research that Matt Carr brought us on the show

584
00:25:58,320 --> 00:26:00,720
Speaker 1: that shows that, you know, the most effect of messaging

585
00:26:01,240 --> 00:26:04,040
Speaker 1: in wist swing voters in the state of Pennsylvania is

586
00:26:04,080 --> 00:26:07,520
Speaker 1: about populist policies and progressive economics. I do have to

587
00:26:07,560 --> 00:26:10,080
Speaker 1: say I think her closing ads that Wygel reference when

588
00:26:10,119 --> 00:26:13,800
Speaker 1: we just talked to them, focused on taxes and Trump

589
00:26:13,880 --> 00:26:14,840
Speaker 1: being for the billionaires.

590
00:26:14,880 --> 00:26:17,040
Speaker 4: I do think that that is an effective pitch.

591
00:26:17,119 --> 00:26:18,960
Speaker 1: And so my political bias is to look at this

592
00:26:19,080 --> 00:26:22,159
Speaker 1: and go listen, people who think this through think Trump

593
00:26:22,320 --> 00:26:25,679
Speaker 1: is a fascist in my opinion, Accurately, they are already

594
00:26:25,680 --> 00:26:29,359
Speaker 1: in your camp. You're not really persuading anyone. But you know,

595
00:26:29,680 --> 00:26:31,720
Speaker 1: I have to say, like I was wrong in twenty

596
00:26:31,760 --> 00:26:34,119
Speaker 1: twenty two, so I do have some humility about my

597
00:26:34,160 --> 00:26:34,919
Speaker 1: own assessments.

598
00:26:35,400 --> 00:26:38,360
Speaker 4: So let me talk about the political strategy a.

599
00:26:38,320 --> 00:26:40,119
Speaker 1: Little bit, and then you know, we can also talk

600
00:26:40,160 --> 00:26:43,480
Speaker 1: a little bit about the substance. Here on the political strategy,

601
00:26:43,760 --> 00:26:47,080
Speaker 1: Weigel mentioned something that hadn't really occurred to me, which

602
00:26:47,160 --> 00:26:50,800
Speaker 1: is that it's her, you know, doing this big press

603
00:26:50,800 --> 00:26:53,760
Speaker 1: conference yesterday at the vice presidential residence, her plan to

604
00:26:53,880 --> 00:26:58,080
Speaker 1: do the you know, the big closing speech in the

605
00:26:58,119 --> 00:27:02,760
Speaker 1: ellipse where January sixth occurred. This is, yes, it's about

606
00:27:02,800 --> 00:27:06,840
Speaker 1: the message itself, but it's also about I look presidential.

607
00:27:07,280 --> 00:27:08,320
Speaker 4: You can imagine me.

608
00:27:08,400 --> 00:27:11,439
Speaker 1: In this role, and they feel like that is still

609
00:27:11,480 --> 00:27:13,919
Speaker 1: a question that remains for some voters who don't like

610
00:27:13,960 --> 00:27:16,800
Speaker 1: Trump but are not sure that they're ready to vote

611
00:27:16,880 --> 00:27:19,639
Speaker 1: for Kamala Harris. And that kind of landed with me

612
00:27:19,800 --> 00:27:21,640
Speaker 1: as like, oh, that's an important part of what they're

613
00:27:21,640 --> 00:27:24,240
Speaker 1: doing here. Trump is trying to go hang out with

614
00:27:24,240 --> 00:27:26,480
Speaker 1: the bros and say, look, I'm not this scary, dangerous

615
00:27:26,520 --> 00:27:28,560
Speaker 1: character that they're painting me on as here I am

616
00:27:28,600 --> 00:27:31,120
Speaker 1: hanging out like how scary can I really be? And

617
00:27:31,240 --> 00:27:34,840
Speaker 1: her focus in the waiting days is envision me as

618
00:27:34,960 --> 00:27:38,680
Speaker 1: president and look, we haven't ever had a female president before,

619
00:27:39,119 --> 00:27:42,639
Speaker 1: and she is has been knocked rightly at plenty of

620
00:27:42,680 --> 00:27:45,679
Speaker 1: times as kind of a lightweight. So that kind of

621
00:27:45,720 --> 00:27:48,159
Speaker 1: landed for me as part of the thinking going into

622
00:27:48,200 --> 00:27:52,440
Speaker 1: this in terms of the messaging. Their theory, which again

623
00:27:52,720 --> 00:27:56,720
Speaker 1: goes against my own views and instincts on these.

624
00:27:56,520 --> 00:27:59,520
Speaker 4: Things, but hey, you never know, maybe they're right. Their

625
00:27:59,640 --> 00:28:00,280
Speaker 4: theory is.

626
00:28:00,200 --> 00:28:04,040
Speaker 1: That there exists a quote unquote shy Kamala voter who

627
00:28:04,240 --> 00:28:07,040
Speaker 1: is a kind of like that the Nicki Haley voter right,

628
00:28:07,080 --> 00:28:12,040
Speaker 1: who is a conservative woman who has voted Republican most

629
00:28:12,080 --> 00:28:14,960
Speaker 1: of her life, whose husband is likely voting for Donald Trump,

630
00:28:15,320 --> 00:28:18,000
Speaker 1: and who is in a lot of circles in her

631
00:28:18,119 --> 00:28:21,879
Speaker 1: community where everybody is basically a Republican and supporting Trump,

632
00:28:22,359 --> 00:28:25,040
Speaker 1: and she really can't come out publicly and say she's

633
00:28:25,080 --> 00:28:28,360
Speaker 1: supporting Kamala Harris and maybe needs a little bit of

634
00:28:28,480 --> 00:28:31,600
Speaker 1: a reminder of this is who this guy is. Remember

635
00:28:31,680 --> 00:28:34,200
Speaker 1: January sixth, look at the people who served with him,

636
00:28:34,480 --> 00:28:38,400
Speaker 1: Madis Millie, now Kelly all coming out and saying, hey,

637
00:28:38,560 --> 00:28:40,320
Speaker 1: I was in the room with this guy, like I

638
00:28:40,360 --> 00:28:43,920
Speaker 1: actually saw how he operates, and yeah, your worst fears

639
00:28:44,000 --> 00:28:46,200
Speaker 1: that he is actually a fascist are true.

640
00:28:46,240 --> 00:28:46,760
Speaker 4: And by the.

641
00:28:46,720 --> 00:28:50,440
Speaker 1: Way, yes, okay, plenty of bad things did happen last

642
00:28:50,440 --> 00:28:53,840
Speaker 1: time around, but the republic did not end. But guess

643
00:28:53,840 --> 00:28:56,760
Speaker 1: what this time we're not going to be there. It's

644
00:28:56,800 --> 00:28:59,400
Speaker 1: going to be all the loyalists. They're going to use,

645
00:28:59,520 --> 00:29:03,640
Speaker 1: you know, Schedule F to dismantle the administrative state. So

646
00:29:03,720 --> 00:29:08,720
Speaker 1: whatever institutions and checks and bulwarks were inhibitors were there

647
00:29:08,800 --> 00:29:11,200
Speaker 1: last time are gonna be gone and it's just going

648
00:29:11,280 --> 00:29:14,320
Speaker 1: to be you know, there's a whole project, concerted project.

649
00:29:14,320 --> 00:29:17,280
Speaker 1: That's the real takeaway from Project twenty twenty five. There's

650
00:29:17,280 --> 00:29:20,280
Speaker 1: a concerted project to make sure that none of those

651
00:29:20,440 --> 00:29:23,760
Speaker 1: restraints from last time are in place. So that's their

652
00:29:23,920 --> 00:29:27,600
Speaker 1: theory of why they're leaning into this messaging because they

653
00:29:27,640 --> 00:29:31,000
Speaker 1: think number one, Kamalin needs to put herself in these

654
00:29:31,000 --> 00:29:33,760
Speaker 1: sort of like presidential settings and prove herself there as

655
00:29:33,800 --> 00:29:38,160
Speaker 1: this like tough, credible leader. And number two, because Trump's

656
00:29:38,160 --> 00:29:41,040
Speaker 1: approval rantings have ticked up a bit, you need to

657
00:29:41,120 --> 00:29:45,000
Speaker 1: remind people of what it was that they found most

658
00:29:45,800 --> 00:29:48,960
Speaker 1: disturbing about him last time that he held the office

659
00:29:49,080 --> 00:29:51,080
Speaker 1: and make the case that next time around he would

660
00:29:51,120 --> 00:29:51,840
Speaker 1: actually be worse.

661
00:29:51,920 --> 00:29:53,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think, you know, and I think that's the

662
00:29:53,720 --> 00:29:57,440
Speaker 2: only interpretation we can come away from. I feel so

663
00:29:57,920 --> 00:30:01,240
Speaker 2: distanced from this campaign. Usually I can fee and understand

664
00:30:01,480 --> 00:30:03,920
Speaker 2: why people are doing what they're doing back in twenty twenty,

665
00:30:04,120 --> 00:30:07,480
Speaker 2: the Biden Basement strategy. Criticized it a lot, obviously on empirical,

666
00:30:07,760 --> 00:30:09,440
Speaker 2: but it was the correct strategy.

667
00:30:09,080 --> 00:30:11,960
Speaker 3: Right, it was obvious. This one. I just don't get it.

668
00:30:12,000 --> 00:30:15,040
Speaker 2: I mean, I understand the twenty twenty two thesis. I

669
00:30:15,120 --> 00:30:18,080
Speaker 2: understand that that coalition they really believe they can bring

670
00:30:18,080 --> 00:30:20,360
Speaker 2: it out. But in an era where Donald Trump increased

671
00:30:20,360 --> 00:30:22,080
Speaker 2: the amount of votes that he got by almost ten

672
00:30:22,120 --> 00:30:25,440
Speaker 2: million in twenty twenty, has always had a track record

673
00:30:25,480 --> 00:30:28,640
Speaker 2: of driving out these lower propensity voters and shaking up

674
00:30:28,680 --> 00:30:31,440
Speaker 2: the political establishment. Maybe there's not evidence for it, but

675
00:30:31,440 --> 00:30:33,719
Speaker 2: there's been so many polling misses and there's still so

676
00:30:33,720 --> 00:30:36,320
Speaker 2: many things that could happen. I mean, nobody saw the

677
00:30:36,400 --> 00:30:40,160
Speaker 2: Latino shift in Texas and elsewhere happening back in twenty twenty.

678
00:30:40,320 --> 00:30:41,840
Speaker 2: Was a shock on election night. If it was one

679
00:30:41,840 --> 00:30:44,680
Speaker 2: of the biggest shocks I experienced, I don't know. I mean,

680
00:30:44,880 --> 00:30:47,239
Speaker 2: maybe you know it's one of those where is it

681
00:30:47,360 --> 00:30:50,080
Speaker 2: really going to land? It just seems so played out,

682
00:30:50,200 --> 00:30:52,320
Speaker 2: so driven home by the media to me, I mean

683
00:30:52,360 --> 00:30:54,520
Speaker 2: I called it on Twitter the Jennifer Rubin campaign, Like,

684
00:30:54,560 --> 00:30:57,200
Speaker 2: to me, it really is like the apotheosis of this.

685
00:30:57,320 --> 00:31:00,960
Speaker 2: Jennifer Ruben like media critique that the media actually doesn't

686
00:31:00,960 --> 00:31:03,640
Speaker 2: talk enough about how Trump is a fascist. I saw

687
00:31:03,720 --> 00:31:06,520
Speaker 2: yesterday it was like Van Jones was like, Kamala has

688
00:31:06,560 --> 00:31:09,280
Speaker 2: to be flawless. Well, Donald Trump is lawless. And yet

689
00:31:09,360 --> 00:31:12,000
Speaker 2: you know, yeah, I know. But went on his Instagram

690
00:31:12,000 --> 00:31:14,240
Speaker 2: and he's like, it's feeling like twenty sixteen again. You

691
00:31:14,280 --> 00:31:16,440
Speaker 2: got to get out there and vote, like we're looking

692
00:31:16,480 --> 00:31:19,680
Speaker 2: down fascism in the barrel. And I mean the whole

693
00:31:19,680 --> 00:31:24,080
Speaker 2: country experienced two and seventeen to twenty and twenty one

694
00:31:24,080 --> 00:31:26,280
Speaker 2: when Trump was actually a president, none of that stuff happened.

695
00:31:26,320 --> 00:31:28,120
Speaker 2: Their argument as well, will be different this time around,

696
00:31:28,120 --> 00:31:31,320
Speaker 2: but people look back on those years actually quite fondly.

697
00:31:31,400 --> 00:31:34,880
Speaker 2: And then even with Trump people himself, a big criticism,

698
00:31:34,920 --> 00:31:37,160
Speaker 2: including mine, would be that he did have people like

699
00:31:37,200 --> 00:31:39,760
Speaker 2: General Kelly Maddison others who didn't agree with him on anything,

700
00:31:39,960 --> 00:31:43,120
Speaker 2: and who at many times actively thwarted a lot of

701
00:31:43,120 --> 00:31:46,320
Speaker 2: his better orders, like to withdraw from Afghanistan or whatever.

702
00:31:46,400 --> 00:31:49,520
Speaker 2: So I just look at it as very different from theirs.

703
00:31:49,560 --> 00:31:52,440
Speaker 2: Of course, they're not trying to win me over that coalition.

704
00:31:52,680 --> 00:31:55,200
Speaker 2: I just keep thinking, aren't these people, Harris voters already

705
00:31:55,240 --> 00:31:58,840
Speaker 2: aren't they already Democrats? Like who is being convinced by this?

706
00:31:58,920 --> 00:32:01,680
Speaker 2: But look, if they win by one in all the

707
00:32:01,680 --> 00:32:04,800
Speaker 2: blue Blueell states, I'll say it right here, they were right.

708
00:32:04,960 --> 00:32:08,160
Speaker 1: I mean the difference between twenty twenty and now is

709
00:32:08,200 --> 00:32:10,960
Speaker 1: that in twenty twenty eight, January sixth hadn't happened. Yeah, true,

710
00:32:11,120 --> 00:32:13,360
Speaker 1: so it was, you know, I mean, you could you

711
00:32:13,400 --> 00:32:15,920
Speaker 1: could point to like Trump did weaponize the Department of

712
00:32:16,040 --> 00:32:19,840
Speaker 1: Justice against you know, launching investigations against John Kerry and

713
00:32:19,880 --> 00:32:23,800
Speaker 1: against Komy. And it's not like there was nothing you

714
00:32:23,800 --> 00:32:26,440
Speaker 1: could point to, but there was nothing as shocking as

715
00:32:26,480 --> 00:32:30,240
Speaker 1: what happened on January sixth. And you know, and now

716
00:32:30,280 --> 00:32:33,080
Speaker 1: we've learned more and more details about No, he really

717
00:32:33,160 --> 00:32:36,719
Speaker 1: was serious about, for example, calling the militarian to shoot

718
00:32:36,760 --> 00:32:40,720
Speaker 1: protesters in the legs during the Black Lives Matter protest.

719
00:32:41,000 --> 00:32:43,640
Speaker 1: He really was serious about these plans to attempt to

720
00:32:43,680 --> 00:32:47,280
Speaker 1: like use the National Guard to seize ballot boxes. He

721
00:32:47,400 --> 00:32:50,800
Speaker 1: really did try to overturn the election using these fake

722
00:32:50,840 --> 00:32:52,520
Speaker 1: electors slates.

723
00:32:52,840 --> 00:32:55,720
Speaker 4: We really did watch a crazed.

724
00:32:55,360 --> 00:32:58,560
Speaker 1: Mob run around the Capitol calling for his own vice

725
00:32:58,560 --> 00:33:01,920
Speaker 1: president to be hang and him sit back and you know,

726
00:33:02,120 --> 00:33:04,720
Speaker 1: allow it to happen, if not be actively like in

727
00:33:04,800 --> 00:33:06,280
Speaker 1: support of that sentiment.

728
00:33:06,720 --> 00:33:10,000
Speaker 4: So you know, that is a significant.

729
00:33:09,440 --> 00:33:12,920
Speaker 1: Shift from where we were back in twenty twenty, which

730
00:33:13,000 --> 00:33:17,520
Speaker 1: even in twenty twenty obviously he lost, so even before

731
00:33:17,920 --> 00:33:23,520
Speaker 1: people had that incredibly jarring experience. So again, my instinct

732
00:33:23,640 --> 00:33:26,240
Speaker 1: is similar to your Sagert and it was in twenty

733
00:33:26,280 --> 00:33:28,960
Speaker 1: twenty two to be like, I don't know why you're

734
00:33:28,960 --> 00:33:32,920
Speaker 1: focused like I to me, I think this is important, right,

735
00:33:33,200 --> 00:33:36,440
Speaker 1: I think actually the argument is correct that you know,

736
00:33:36,600 --> 00:33:39,920
Speaker 1: all of any sort of institutional guardrail and check that

737
00:33:40,080 --> 00:33:43,440
Speaker 1: was in place that checked his worst instincts last time around,

738
00:33:43,960 --> 00:33:46,680
Speaker 1: they have made a concerted effort to dismantle those. You

739
00:33:46,720 --> 00:33:49,840
Speaker 1: also have a Supreme Court decision basically saying, hey, whatever

740
00:33:49,880 --> 00:33:52,200
Speaker 1: you do in office, basically you're immune. Like you can

741
00:33:52,240 --> 00:33:55,720
Speaker 1: do basically whatever you want. So it is a different

742
00:33:55,800 --> 00:33:58,840
Speaker 1: landscape in that regard that resonates with me. My instinct

743
00:33:58,880 --> 00:34:00,880
Speaker 1: is to say you should be. You were better off

744
00:34:00,920 --> 00:34:04,200
Speaker 1: when you were framing him as like weird versus this,

745
00:34:04,400 --> 00:34:07,480
Speaker 1: you know, giant threat. You're even better off when you're

746
00:34:07,560 --> 00:34:11,040
Speaker 1: leaning into bread and butter issues inflation, which we have

747
00:34:11,080 --> 00:34:12,640
Speaker 1: to say too. I mean, she has closed the gap

748
00:34:12,640 --> 00:34:14,600
Speaker 1: with him on economics, so some of what she's saying

749
00:34:14,680 --> 00:34:17,720
Speaker 1: is landing. But I just I can't be so certain

750
00:34:17,719 --> 00:34:20,200
Speaker 1: about it because their analysis was more right in twenty

751
00:34:20,239 --> 00:34:24,200
Speaker 1: twenty two than mine was. And I think what Wygel

752
00:34:24,280 --> 00:34:28,120
Speaker 1: points to is they've effectively already baked into the calculus,

753
00:34:28,160 --> 00:34:32,160
Speaker 1: like we're losing Arab American voters, We're just gonna try

754
00:34:32,160 --> 00:34:34,480
Speaker 1: to make it up somewhere else. We're not going to

755
00:34:34,560 --> 00:34:37,799
Speaker 1: hit our margins with black men in particular, We're also

756
00:34:37,840 --> 00:34:39,880
Speaker 1: going to try to make that up somewhere else. And

757
00:34:39,920 --> 00:34:41,719
Speaker 1: they're say, all right, well, where do we make that up.

758
00:34:41,840 --> 00:34:44,360
Speaker 1: The largest group of voters in the country is white people,

759
00:34:44,600 --> 00:34:48,560
Speaker 1: and white women in particular are the single largest demographic group.

760
00:34:48,960 --> 00:34:52,960
Speaker 1: So if we can pull in another couple percentage points there,

761
00:34:53,360 --> 00:34:55,960
Speaker 1: then it's enough to make it work, especially in the

762
00:34:55,960 --> 00:34:58,759
Speaker 1: blue wall states. And you know, I can't say definitively

763
00:34:58,840 --> 00:34:59,840
Speaker 1: that they're wrong about.

764
00:34:59,600 --> 00:35:02,080
Speaker 3: That again extraordinarily possible.

765
00:35:02,120 --> 00:35:05,000
Speaker 2: It just seems like such a tremendous gamble, Like I

766
00:35:05,000 --> 00:35:07,719
Speaker 2: would you know, if we're gambling and we're looking at

767
00:35:07,840 --> 00:35:10,760
Speaker 2: margins and ways to win, it just seems totally different,

768
00:35:11,360 --> 00:35:12,480
Speaker 2: both the way I would.

769
00:35:12,280 --> 00:35:12,839
Speaker 3: Do it and others.

770
00:35:12,880 --> 00:35:14,239
Speaker 2: I mean, I guess why I come back to it

771
00:35:14,280 --> 00:35:16,640
Speaker 2: in terms of why it's all baked in is we

772
00:35:16,680 --> 00:35:19,440
Speaker 2: have heard this all so many times, and by the

773
00:35:19,440 --> 00:35:22,120
Speaker 2: way I would point out, this whole Atlantic article has

774
00:35:22,160 --> 00:35:25,120
Speaker 2: some serious like issues. Let's put a six please on

775
00:35:25,160 --> 00:35:27,560
Speaker 2: the screen. Nick Ayers, who I covered at the White

776
00:35:27,560 --> 00:35:29,880
Speaker 2: House and was the deputy chief of staff while General

777
00:35:30,000 --> 00:35:32,160
Speaker 2: Kelly was also the Chief of Staff, says quote, I've

778
00:35:32,200 --> 00:35:35,280
Speaker 2: avoided commenting on interstaff leaks or rumors, but General Kelly's

779
00:35:35,280 --> 00:35:37,960
Speaker 2: comments regarding President Trump are two egregious to ignore. I

780
00:35:38,080 --> 00:35:39,759
Speaker 2: was with each of them more than most, and his

781
00:35:39,800 --> 00:35:42,680
Speaker 2: commentary is patently false. There is an anecdote in the

782
00:35:42,680 --> 00:35:45,000
Speaker 2: Atlantic article which is alleged that Trump didn't want to

783
00:35:45,040 --> 00:35:48,680
Speaker 2: pay for this soldier's funeral. The sister of that fallen

784
00:35:48,680 --> 00:35:51,280
Speaker 2: soldier says that is absolutely not true.

785
00:35:51,400 --> 00:35:52,880
Speaker 3: I would The reporter who.

786
00:35:52,719 --> 00:35:55,840
Speaker 2: Was in the room during their meeting says absolutely not true.

787
00:35:55,920 --> 00:35:59,239
Speaker 2: Now all these people have certainly an incentive, right, But

788
00:35:59,360 --> 00:36:02,280
Speaker 2: Nick ayris it was like some never Trump Mike Pence

789
00:36:02,360 --> 00:36:04,440
Speaker 2: type guy who I covered at the White House and

790
00:36:04,480 --> 00:36:07,439
Speaker 2: eventually left. He has not in any way some sort

791
00:36:07,480 --> 00:36:09,759
Speaker 2: of like Maga warriors. So when the guy says this,

792
00:36:09,880 --> 00:36:11,960
Speaker 2: to lie like, I tend to believe it. At the

793
00:36:12,000 --> 00:36:15,319
Speaker 2: end of the day, only General Kelly and Donald Trump

794
00:36:15,400 --> 00:36:18,800
Speaker 2: actually know what was allegedly said in some private conversation.

795
00:36:19,040 --> 00:36:20,719
Speaker 3: You can make up your own mind. Can I ask

796
00:36:20,760 --> 00:36:20,960
Speaker 3: you that?

797
00:36:21,400 --> 00:36:24,239
Speaker 1: Like we weren't there. I was like, it is just

798
00:36:24,280 --> 00:36:27,680
Speaker 1: like he said he said. He said, does it strike

799
00:36:27,719 --> 00:36:29,600
Speaker 1: you as now landish? Though that Trump could say like,

800
00:36:29,680 --> 00:36:33,120
Speaker 1: it's to me, it's not that crazy or unimaginable given

801
00:36:33,120 --> 00:36:35,319
Speaker 1: some of the things he said in public, that he

802
00:36:35,360 --> 00:36:39,600
Speaker 1: could have said something like this, and so you know,

803
00:36:39,640 --> 00:36:42,719
Speaker 1: it doesn't like blow my mind to imagine him being like,

804
00:36:43,000 --> 00:36:45,280
Speaker 1: you know, I want some generals like the German generals.

805
00:36:45,400 --> 00:36:48,000
Speaker 1: That sounds very much like something Trump'll say.

806
00:36:48,000 --> 00:36:49,600
Speaker 2: It doesn't that kind of lose when he's like what

807
00:36:50,000 --> 00:36:51,759
Speaker 2: even listen to Kelly said, He's like, I want somebody

808
00:36:51,760 --> 00:36:53,800
Speaker 2: who takes orders. It's like, well, I mean, for example,

809
00:36:53,880 --> 00:36:56,600
Speaker 2: let's think about what maybe the context like maybe when

810
00:36:56,600 --> 00:36:58,440
Speaker 2: Trump was like, hey, you need to withdraw from Syria

811
00:36:58,719 --> 00:37:01,080
Speaker 2: and James Madison the Pentagon hide the number of troops

812
00:37:01,080 --> 00:37:05,000
Speaker 2: in Syria and don't withdraw and execute a lawful order, Like, well,

813
00:37:05,120 --> 00:37:06,839
Speaker 2: which side would you rather have the per person who

814
00:37:06,880 --> 00:37:08,640
Speaker 2: actually obeys the commander in chief or not?

815
00:37:08,880 --> 00:37:09,759
Speaker 3: Like that? That's what I mean.

816
00:37:09,800 --> 00:37:11,520
Speaker 4: But why you got to go to Hitler's generals?

817
00:37:11,560 --> 00:37:14,960
Speaker 3: Okay, the point is about I mean, by the way, you.

818
00:37:14,880 --> 00:37:17,920
Speaker 2: Know, I've been trying to avoid the discussion. But you know,

819
00:37:18,040 --> 00:37:20,279
Speaker 2: what's his name? Kelly brought up? He's like, oh, did

820
00:37:20,280 --> 00:37:23,320
Speaker 2: you mean Bismarck's generals. Did you mean the Kaiser's generals

821
00:37:23,400 --> 00:37:25,720
Speaker 2: or do you mean Hitler's generals. There is a discussion

822
00:37:25,760 --> 00:37:28,040
Speaker 2: to be had about who the best generals were between Bismarck,

823
00:37:28,080 --> 00:37:31,000
Speaker 2: Kaiser and Hitler or whatever. Don't forget Heinz Gudarien was

824
00:37:31,040 --> 00:37:33,680
Speaker 2: never prosecuted by the Nuremberg trials. He was the chief

825
00:37:33,680 --> 00:37:36,640
Speaker 2: of staff of the Wehrmacht under Hitler. So all I'm

826
00:37:36,680 --> 00:37:39,480
Speaker 2: saying is that if you actually look at so called

827
00:37:39,520 --> 00:37:43,399
Speaker 2: like the context of I'm trying to issue orders or whatever, Yeah,

828
00:37:43,520 --> 00:37:45,880
Speaker 2: don't you want a general officer who does obey like

829
00:37:45,960 --> 00:37:49,239
Speaker 2: the whatever the order, a lawful order at least from

830
00:37:49,280 --> 00:37:49,800
Speaker 2: the president.

831
00:37:49,880 --> 00:37:53,360
Speaker 4: Probably, so you also would like Hitler's generals.

832
00:37:53,600 --> 00:37:55,360
Speaker 2: No, I didn't say I would like Hitler's generals. But

833
00:37:55,400 --> 00:37:58,120
Speaker 2: I'm saying it's a stupid What I'm saying, is this

834
00:37:58,239 --> 00:38:01,319
Speaker 2: a stupid and contrite way of being like, oh, it's

835
00:38:01,760 --> 00:38:04,440
Speaker 2: it is evidence so that he would like pursue a

836
00:38:04,480 --> 00:38:07,439
Speaker 2: holocaust or some sort of like ridiculous and the most

837
00:38:07,600 --> 00:38:09,640
Speaker 2: smearing way. We have to be adult in the way

838
00:38:09,680 --> 00:38:10,960
Speaker 2: that we can talk about that conversation.

839
00:38:11,160 --> 00:38:12,600
Speaker 3: And so, like what I just pointed.

840
00:38:12,320 --> 00:38:14,920
Speaker 2: Out with the Seria thing is a perfect example of

841
00:38:15,080 --> 00:38:17,480
Speaker 2: why I liked schedule AFT. I'm like, yeah, it's good,

842
00:38:17,520 --> 00:38:20,120
Speaker 2: get them out of there. They're actively subvert the commander

843
00:38:20,120 --> 00:38:22,560
Speaker 2: in chief. Bigger than Trump too. This is a Biden problem.

844
00:38:22,600 --> 00:38:23,600
Speaker 3: This isn't everybody problem.

845
00:38:23,719 --> 00:38:26,399
Speaker 1: The last time we discussed this, you know, you said

846
00:38:26,680 --> 00:38:30,080
Speaker 1: you had some you thought Trump would be basically a

847
00:38:30,120 --> 00:38:31,680
Speaker 1: dictator if he got I don't want to put work

848
00:38:32,200 --> 00:38:32,960
Speaker 1: that's I said.

849
00:38:33,320 --> 00:38:36,160
Speaker 2: Trump would pursue many of the most outlandish things if

850
00:38:36,200 --> 00:38:38,879
Speaker 2: he could. But I have enough faith in American institutions

851
00:38:38,960 --> 00:38:39,880
Speaker 2: that that's not going to happen.

852
00:38:39,920 --> 00:38:42,840
Speaker 1: So to me, the issue with that analysis to me

853
00:38:43,480 --> 00:38:45,839
Speaker 1: is that you can't, on the one hand, say like, oh,

854
00:38:45,960 --> 00:38:48,400
Speaker 1: the institution's held last time, and he was held in

855
00:38:48,480 --> 00:38:51,120
Speaker 1: check bye by the way some people like Kelly and Mattis,

856
00:38:51,160 --> 00:38:54,640
Speaker 1: et cetera, and Millie, But also I want none of

857
00:38:54,680 --> 00:38:56,799
Speaker 1: those people in this administration, and I want them to

858
00:38:56,880 --> 00:39:00,359
Speaker 1: just destroy, actively destroy the institutions that did keep him

859
00:39:00,520 --> 00:39:03,200
Speaker 1: in check last time. And also it also leaves out

860
00:39:03,200 --> 00:39:05,279
Speaker 1: the fact that the landscape is different since you have

861
00:39:05,360 --> 00:39:08,280
Speaker 1: the Supreme Court decision that basically says you're immune for acts.

862
00:39:08,080 --> 00:39:09,440
Speaker 4: That you take in office.

863
00:39:09,680 --> 00:39:11,839
Speaker 1: So to me, that's kind of trying to have it

864
00:39:11,960 --> 00:39:15,080
Speaker 1: both ways of saying, yeah, well, the institutions held last time,

865
00:39:15,080 --> 00:39:17,560
Speaker 1: but also I don't want those institutions around this time

866
00:39:17,640 --> 00:39:18,399
Speaker 1: to hold them in check.

867
00:39:18,520 --> 00:39:21,000
Speaker 2: Very easy to explain in terms of what is it,

868
00:39:21,080 --> 00:39:23,960
Speaker 2: Like what did you reference, like shoot people in the

869
00:39:24,040 --> 00:39:25,920
Speaker 2: lag or whatever. Yeah, that's not going to happen, even

870
00:39:26,000 --> 00:39:29,040
Speaker 2: under so called Schedule F. But the example I gave of, hey,

871
00:39:29,040 --> 00:39:31,520
Speaker 2: you need to withdraw from Syria and then they fake

872
00:39:31,680 --> 00:39:34,839
Speaker 2: the numbers is specifically in the Pentagon and then give

873
00:39:34,880 --> 00:39:37,000
Speaker 2: them false information to the Commander in chief and don't

874
00:39:37,040 --> 00:39:37,839
Speaker 2: carry out that order.

875
00:39:37,880 --> 00:39:39,760
Speaker 3: I think that needs to go. That's what I'm talking about.

876
00:39:39,920 --> 00:39:42,600
Speaker 3: Why I don't think that those are actually mutually exclusive.

877
00:39:42,880 --> 00:39:46,920
Speaker 1: Why are you so confident that if you so. Last time,

878
00:39:47,000 --> 00:39:49,000
Speaker 1: when you know, when Trump was like, why can't the

879
00:39:49,040 --> 00:39:51,520
Speaker 1: military just come in and shoot shoot protesters in the

880
00:39:51,600 --> 00:39:53,399
Speaker 1: legs or something that was you know what he said,

881
00:39:53,440 --> 00:39:53,879
Speaker 1: would I?

882
00:39:53,880 --> 00:39:54,440
Speaker 4: I believe that he.

883
00:39:54,440 --> 00:39:57,840
Speaker 1: Said that you had Milli in place to be like,

884
00:39:58,160 --> 00:40:02,400
Speaker 1: you can't do that, right, And the whole goal of

885
00:40:02,440 --> 00:40:04,520
Speaker 1: the you know Project twenty twenty five and many of

886
00:40:04,560 --> 00:40:07,799
Speaker 1: the most organized conservative efforts in the meantime is to

887
00:40:07,840 --> 00:40:10,960
Speaker 1: make sure that you don't have someone like Millie in

888
00:40:11,000 --> 00:40:14,200
Speaker 1: place who can say like, no, we're not doing that,

889
00:40:14,200 --> 00:40:17,160
Speaker 1: that you have quote unquote loyalists, like that's Trump's number

890
00:40:17,200 --> 00:40:19,239
Speaker 1: one goal. You see it already, you know, in the

891
00:40:19,320 --> 00:40:21,600
Speaker 1: choice of like jd Vance as vice president. The number

892
00:40:21,600 --> 00:40:23,160
Speaker 1: one goal is to make sure that the people who

893
00:40:23,160 --> 00:40:26,360
Speaker 1: are in place this time will do whatever he says,

894
00:40:27,040 --> 00:40:32,040
Speaker 1: whether it is appropriate, lawful, moral, or not. And so

895
00:40:32,400 --> 00:40:34,640
Speaker 1: that's why I don't think you can have so much

896
00:40:34,719 --> 00:40:37,640
Speaker 1: confidence that like, if he you know, wants to go

897
00:40:37,680 --> 00:40:39,359
Speaker 1: in that direction next time, you're going to have someone

898
00:40:39,400 --> 00:40:41,520
Speaker 1: in place who's going to be like, no, you can't

899
00:40:41,520 --> 00:40:44,840
Speaker 1: do that. And you know the context of John Kelly,

900
00:40:44,960 --> 00:40:46,840
Speaker 1: the quotes that we played for you, the audio we

901
00:40:46,880 --> 00:40:48,279
Speaker 1: played for you. That was in an interview with the

902
00:40:48,280 --> 00:40:52,040
Speaker 1: New York Times. He apparently, you know, this reporter had

903
00:40:52,040 --> 00:40:53,480
Speaker 1: been trying to get him on the record for a

904
00:40:53,520 --> 00:40:55,759
Speaker 1: really long time, and he didn't want to do it,

905
00:40:55,760 --> 00:40:57,080
Speaker 1: didn't want to do it, didn't want to do it.

906
00:40:57,160 --> 00:40:59,680
Speaker 1: And then what he says triggered him to come out

907
00:40:59,719 --> 00:41:04,320
Speaker 1: now is Trump's repeated comments about using the military against

908
00:41:04,360 --> 00:41:07,640
Speaker 1: the enemy within and for him, a bright red line,

909
00:41:07,800 --> 00:41:09,520
Speaker 1: which it should be for all of us, in my opinion,

910
00:41:09,719 --> 00:41:14,680
Speaker 1: in American public life, is turning the military against civilian populations.

911
00:41:15,080 --> 00:41:17,359
Speaker 1: So when you know what he tried to do last time,

912
00:41:17,400 --> 00:41:20,120
Speaker 1: when you know what he's saying publicly, when people who

913
00:41:20,360 --> 00:41:22,359
Speaker 1: know him way better than we do and have been

914
00:41:22,400 --> 00:41:24,279
Speaker 1: around him and seeing him in action way more than

915
00:41:24,320 --> 00:41:29,200
Speaker 1: we have, when all of them are saying this like it's,

916
00:41:29,239 --> 00:41:31,279
Speaker 1: you know, whether you want to use the F word

917
00:41:31,320 --> 00:41:33,680
Speaker 1: fascist or not, like this guy is want to be

918
00:41:33,760 --> 00:41:37,440
Speaker 1: dictator and really could be very dangerous next time around.

919
00:41:38,120 --> 00:41:40,480
Speaker 1: I just I can't hand wave that away given what

920
00:41:40,480 --> 00:41:43,399
Speaker 1: we've seen him already do at this point.

921
00:41:45,640 --> 00:41:48,760
Speaker 2: Again, I understand, but it just substantively seems very different

922
00:41:48,760 --> 00:41:50,880
Speaker 2: to me than I mean. Okay, let's say the theoretical

923
00:41:50,960 --> 00:41:52,800
Speaker 2: chain of command. For you need to go shoot people

924
00:41:53,040 --> 00:41:55,160
Speaker 2: on American streets, you would need the general to carry

925
00:41:55,200 --> 00:41:56,520
Speaker 2: it out. You would need to pass it down to

926
00:41:56,560 --> 00:41:59,200
Speaker 2: the National Guard, and the individual soldiers would actually carry

927
00:41:59,480 --> 00:42:02,040
Speaker 2: carry that out. Call me crazy, too optimistic, don't think

928
00:42:02,040 --> 00:42:02,600
Speaker 2: it's going to happen.

929
00:42:02,760 --> 00:42:06,640
Speaker 1: We did see protesters quite viciously attacked out front of

930
00:42:06,680 --> 00:42:08,600
Speaker 1: the White House during the Black Lives Matter.

931
00:42:08,840 --> 00:42:10,920
Speaker 2: By the decent police, not on the order of the

932
00:42:10,920 --> 00:42:12,480
Speaker 2: President or the National Guard.

933
00:42:12,560 --> 00:42:13,000
Speaker 4: It was.

934
00:42:13,080 --> 00:42:16,040
Speaker 1: It was the National Guard. There were federal law enforcement

935
00:42:16,080 --> 00:42:17,760
Speaker 1: officers there. It was right outside.

936
00:42:18,520 --> 00:42:20,759
Speaker 3: Done by it. It was done.

937
00:42:21,040 --> 00:42:23,560
Speaker 1: You're forgetting it was done in the service of enabling

938
00:42:23,600 --> 00:42:26,920
Speaker 1: that bizarre Trump photo off with the Bible. So that

939
00:42:27,080 --> 00:42:29,920
Speaker 1: was done at Trump's behest, and that it was.

940
00:42:29,920 --> 00:42:32,000
Speaker 4: At a time. Yes, I know plenty of the protests

941
00:42:32,000 --> 00:42:32,400
Speaker 4: were violent.

942
00:42:32,400 --> 00:42:34,839
Speaker 1: It was at a time they were completely peaceful, and

943
00:42:35,080 --> 00:42:37,880
Speaker 1: you know they were viciously attacked. So I don't again,

944
00:42:38,000 --> 00:42:43,360
Speaker 1: I just to say it's impossible, I can't imagine it happening, etcetera, etcetera.

945
00:42:44,320 --> 00:42:47,400
Speaker 1: I given what we've already seen, I just I just

946
00:42:47,440 --> 00:42:48,080
Speaker 1: don't have that book.

947
00:42:48,400 --> 00:42:49,839
Speaker 3: I mean, And that's fine. People can vote the way

948
00:42:49,840 --> 00:42:50,279
Speaker 3: that they want.

949
00:42:50,320 --> 00:42:52,400
Speaker 2: There's a big difference to me between DC cops and

950
00:42:52,480 --> 00:42:55,439
Speaker 2: local cops tear gassing some people to get them out

951
00:42:55,440 --> 00:42:57,400
Speaker 2: of a square or whatever. So Trump can take a

952
00:42:57,440 --> 00:42:59,960
Speaker 2: photo op and literally trying to shoot people and occupy

953
00:43:00,120 --> 00:43:02,640
Speaker 2: the country. Like, if you believe that, then, frankly, I

954
00:43:02,680 --> 00:43:04,920
Speaker 2: have my whole voting GUYE today, go vote for Kamala.

955
00:43:05,120 --> 00:43:07,279
Speaker 2: If you don't believe that, and you think it'll work

956
00:43:07,320 --> 00:43:08,960
Speaker 2: its way out in the way that I laid out

957
00:43:08,960 --> 00:43:11,040
Speaker 2: in terms of the President's going to issue an order

958
00:43:11,080 --> 00:43:13,640
Speaker 2: and we're going to actually see the deep state or

959
00:43:13,640 --> 00:43:16,440
Speaker 2: whatever maybe come to heal and execute these orders, and

960
00:43:16,520 --> 00:43:18,319
Speaker 2: you should vote for Trump or vote you know, it's

961
00:43:18,360 --> 00:43:20,800
Speaker 2: up to you. But my point is that it seems

962
00:43:21,080 --> 00:43:24,959
Speaker 2: very clear that there's obviously like an Overton window within

963
00:43:25,040 --> 00:43:27,600
Speaker 2: what we're talking about here, and that this idea of

964
00:43:27,680 --> 00:43:32,200
Speaker 2: literally shooting people or enemy from within camps of US

965
00:43:32,280 --> 00:43:33,759
Speaker 2: citizens is not going to happen.

966
00:43:33,800 --> 00:43:35,480
Speaker 3: If you believe it's going to happen, then don't vote

967
00:43:35,480 --> 00:43:35,719
Speaker 3: for him.

968
00:43:35,719 --> 00:43:37,560
Speaker 2: I really don't know what to tell you. Like, that's

969
00:43:37,640 --> 00:43:40,239
Speaker 2: the argument that I think is very clear. I think

970
00:43:40,239 --> 00:43:42,799
Speaker 2: that's how the government should work. Specifically, both within the

971
00:43:42,800 --> 00:43:46,360
Speaker 2: bounds and then also you know, disobeying so called unlawful orders.

972
00:43:46,480 --> 00:43:48,520
Speaker 2: What I saw when uncover the White House is the

973
00:43:48,520 --> 00:43:53,080
Speaker 2: General McMaster, General Kelly, and General Madis willfully undercut the

974
00:43:53,080 --> 00:43:56,200
Speaker 2: President of the United States and tried it every turn

975
00:43:56,480 --> 00:43:59,080
Speaker 2: not to execute his foreign policy. My criticism of Trump

976
00:43:59,160 --> 00:44:01,239
Speaker 2: actually would be that you such a fool that you

977
00:44:01,360 --> 00:44:04,000
Speaker 2: allowed them to do so for two years, and that

978
00:44:04,080 --> 00:44:06,080
Speaker 2: you didn't use the full force of your office to say,

979
00:44:06,560 --> 00:44:09,080
Speaker 2: who were you? Get out of here. The guy comes in,

980
00:44:09,120 --> 00:44:11,680
Speaker 2: he says, I want to withdraw from Afghanistan. McMaster's like, no,

981
00:44:11,719 --> 00:44:13,799
Speaker 2: you need to surge in Afghanistan. And Trump signs that off.

982
00:44:13,840 --> 00:44:15,840
Speaker 2: So that's my criticism of Trump. But that's not the

983
00:44:15,840 --> 00:44:19,279
Speaker 2: criticism that media and Kelly and all these other people were.

984
00:44:19,320 --> 00:44:21,040
Speaker 2: It's very much like, oh, you need to trust me,

985
00:44:21,280 --> 00:44:23,400
Speaker 2: you know, because I was some four star general, and

986
00:44:23,600 --> 00:44:26,120
Speaker 2: you know that's another thing, these four star generals like, well,

987
00:44:26,120 --> 00:44:27,759
Speaker 2: you think they're the greatest people in the world.

988
00:44:27,840 --> 00:44:29,760
Speaker 3: I covered the Pentagon. There's some of the biggest liars

989
00:44:29,800 --> 00:44:30,200
Speaker 3: out there.

990
00:44:30,320 --> 00:44:32,400
Speaker 2: Go look at the way that they all talked about Afghanistan,

991
00:44:32,480 --> 00:44:35,799
Speaker 2: Like why will you trust exactly what everything these people say,

992
00:44:35,920 --> 00:44:37,879
Speaker 2: this isn't even about General Kelly per Se, But it's

993
00:44:37,960 --> 00:44:41,239
Speaker 2: like anytime some general on CNN or whatever is like

994
00:44:41,360 --> 00:44:44,120
Speaker 2: talking about his past service and how we're supposed to

995
00:44:44,160 --> 00:44:46,879
Speaker 2: revere them. I just can't help but think the Afghanistan

996
00:44:46,920 --> 00:44:50,319
Speaker 2: papers and I read about him, every single commander of

997
00:44:50,440 --> 00:44:53,560
Speaker 2: that are of the US forces in Afghanistan lied to

998
00:44:53,640 --> 00:44:56,680
Speaker 2: the American people. So what credibility do you have with me?

999
00:44:56,960 --> 00:44:58,960
Speaker 2: So I guess it just comes down to like what

1000
00:44:59,000 --> 00:45:00,840
Speaker 2: you really think is going to have and within this

1001
00:45:00,920 --> 00:45:04,319
Speaker 2: specific situation, and also whether you find these people as

1002
00:45:04,400 --> 00:45:06,360
Speaker 2: eminently credible and you want them to run the country

1003
00:45:06,400 --> 00:45:07,319
Speaker 2: for me, absolutely not.

1004
00:45:07,560 --> 00:45:08,600
Speaker 3: I don't want these people around.

1005
00:45:08,719 --> 00:45:11,960
Speaker 1: What do you make though of the fact that so

1006
00:45:12,120 --> 00:45:15,799
Speaker 1: many of the people who you know, who supported, I

1007
00:45:15,800 --> 00:45:18,600
Speaker 1: mean voted for Trump last time, who were lifelong Republicans,

1008
00:45:19,000 --> 00:45:22,800
Speaker 1: who were you know, as comfortable enough with his leadership

1009
00:45:22,800 --> 00:45:25,319
Speaker 1: that they were willing to serve in his administration, that

1010
00:45:25,440 --> 00:45:27,560
Speaker 1: they all have very similar things to say.

1011
00:45:27,640 --> 00:45:29,560
Speaker 2: I make of it exactly what I just said. I

1012
00:45:29,600 --> 00:45:32,520
Speaker 2: think that their neo institution or their deep institutionalists, that

1013
00:45:32,560 --> 00:45:35,600
Speaker 2: they have a committed internationalist worldview, having covered and even

1014
00:45:35,600 --> 00:45:38,200
Speaker 2: been in off the record conversations with General Kelly, with

1015
00:45:38,360 --> 00:45:41,160
Speaker 2: General Madison, all these other people. They they saw their

1016
00:45:41,239 --> 00:45:43,960
Speaker 2: role as very specific, we need to protect the republic

1017
00:45:44,120 --> 00:45:46,400
Speaker 2: from Donald Trump. I don't think that these people should

1018
00:45:46,400 --> 00:45:49,640
Speaker 2: be quote unquote protecting a democratic elected leader from any

1019
00:45:49,840 --> 00:45:53,600
Speaker 2: or the republic quote unquote from a democratic elected representative

1020
00:45:53,640 --> 00:45:56,680
Speaker 2: they like. For example, Mattis saw his entire role as

1021
00:45:56,719 --> 00:46:00,720
Speaker 2: stopping Trump's blunt America first instincts and don't forget resigned

1022
00:46:00,760 --> 00:46:03,920
Speaker 2: over what over the ceial withdrawal order that eventually came

1023
00:46:03,960 --> 00:46:07,359
Speaker 2: to a head. General Kelly, same thing, General McMaster, same thing.

1024
00:46:07,640 --> 00:46:08,520
Speaker 2: They saw their.

1025
00:46:08,480 --> 00:46:11,080
Speaker 3: Role as Mikes. So what's up.

1026
00:46:11,160 --> 00:46:11,600
Speaker 4: How about Mike?

1027
00:46:11,840 --> 00:46:13,680
Speaker 2: Well, Mike Pen's a different story. And actually, I think

1028
00:46:13,680 --> 00:46:16,040
Speaker 2: that criticism is pretty legitimate. I mean, I've never sat

1029
00:46:16,040 --> 00:46:16,800
Speaker 2: here made some stop.

1030
00:46:17,000 --> 00:46:19,560
Speaker 1: That's the thing, is what they are saying is honestly

1031
00:46:19,680 --> 00:46:23,000
Speaker 1: very similar to what Mike Pence is saying. And you know,

1032
00:46:23,120 --> 00:46:27,200
Speaker 1: I would have put a lot more stock in the

1033
00:46:27,360 --> 00:46:32,359
Speaker 1: argument you're making prior to January sixth. And you know,

1034
00:46:32,840 --> 00:46:36,040
Speaker 1: we were very lucky that at that time there were

1035
00:46:36,080 --> 00:46:38,680
Speaker 1: still a few people to tell Donald Trump no that

1036
00:46:38,800 --> 00:46:42,080
Speaker 1: it wasn't even you know, worse than it ended up being,

1037
00:46:42,160 --> 00:46:42,600
Speaker 1: and it was.

1038
00:46:42,719 --> 00:46:44,000
Speaker 4: It was a horrifying day.

1039
00:46:44,160 --> 00:46:46,160
Speaker 1: It was it was bad, Like the attempt to steal

1040
00:46:46,160 --> 00:46:49,919
Speaker 1: an election was really bad. So I just can't be

1041
00:46:50,600 --> 00:46:53,600
Speaker 1: so blase at this point of like, oh, you know,

1042
00:46:53,719 --> 00:46:56,600
Speaker 1: I don't want anyone around who is an institutionalist. I

1043
00:46:56,640 --> 00:46:58,640
Speaker 1: want Donald Trump to be able to exercise his most

1044
00:46:58,719 --> 00:47:02,440
Speaker 1: unchecked impulses this time. I just can't, Like, I just

1045
00:47:02,480 --> 00:47:03,160
Speaker 1: can't at this point.

1046
00:47:03,200 --> 00:47:04,840
Speaker 3: I get where coming from. I laid out in a

1047
00:47:04,960 --> 00:47:05,920
Speaker 3: January six position.

1048
00:47:06,160 --> 00:47:09,480
Speaker 4: He didn't change her what the January analysis.

1049
00:47:08,960 --> 00:47:11,480
Speaker 2: At all, of course, But what happened then was the

1050
00:47:11,520 --> 00:47:13,400
Speaker 2: result of the democratic process.

1051
00:47:13,520 --> 00:47:13,680
Speaker 12: Right.

1052
00:47:13,719 --> 00:47:15,880
Speaker 2: Well, well, let's look at the current landscape of January

1053
00:47:15,960 --> 00:47:17,080
Speaker 2: sixth and whether it can happen again.

1054
00:47:17,120 --> 00:47:18,520
Speaker 3: The Electoral Count Act has passed.

1055
00:47:18,560 --> 00:47:21,319
Speaker 2: The Vice President can no longer have any ambiguity on

1056
00:47:21,440 --> 00:47:23,959
Speaker 2: certifying the election. Five out of the seven swing states

1057
00:47:23,960 --> 00:47:26,680
Speaker 2: are ruled by Democrats, which would require certification under the

1058
00:47:26,680 --> 00:47:27,839
Speaker 2: Electoral Count Acts.

1059
00:47:27,840 --> 00:47:28,920
Speaker 3: So that's not going to happen.

1060
00:47:29,160 --> 00:47:32,440
Speaker 2: Number Three, Rudy Giuliani and all of the other legal

1061
00:47:32,480 --> 00:47:35,360
Speaker 2: associates who helped Trump do this are literally bankrupt. Rudy

1062
00:47:35,440 --> 00:47:38,160
Speaker 2: was ordered yesterday to turn his Mercedes over to the

1063
00:47:38,200 --> 00:47:41,560
Speaker 2: Department of Justice. Jenna Ellis had to plead guilty, Sidney

1064
00:47:41,560 --> 00:47:44,799
Speaker 2: Powell had to plead guilty. They're all completely bankrupts. What's

1065
00:47:44,800 --> 00:47:47,200
Speaker 2: his name, John Eastman has basically been run out of town.

1066
00:47:47,239 --> 00:47:49,640
Speaker 2: I believe he's either been disbarred or not. I forget

1067
00:47:50,120 --> 00:47:53,640
Speaker 2: Rudy's been disbarred. Every person who's been connected to that

1068
00:47:53,880 --> 00:47:56,439
Speaker 2: has suffered massively at the hands of state, and Trump

1069
00:47:56,520 --> 00:47:58,759
Speaker 2: himself is under federal indictment and it's not like he

1070
00:47:58,760 --> 00:48:00,799
Speaker 2: didn't pay a price for So do I think it's

1071
00:48:00,800 --> 00:48:03,319
Speaker 2: going to happen again, No, I absolutely don't.

1072
00:48:03,480 --> 00:48:04,920
Speaker 3: That was This is a case.

1073
00:48:04,760 --> 00:48:07,840
Speaker 2: Of genuinely institutions coming together, I think in a totally

1074
00:48:07,960 --> 00:48:10,800
Speaker 2: legitimate way of trying to constrain the universe where anything

1075
00:48:10,800 --> 00:48:12,759
Speaker 2: like this could happen. So that's what I would say.

1076
00:48:12,840 --> 00:48:15,200
Speaker 2: I'm not that worried about that playing out like this again.

1077
00:48:15,239 --> 00:48:18,560
Speaker 2: If you want to say, an extraordinary circumstance of something different, okay,

1078
00:48:18,560 --> 00:48:20,880
Speaker 2: maybe you know Again, I think within the gut bounds

1079
00:48:20,920 --> 00:48:23,439
Speaker 2: of the system, people have really learned their lesson from

1080
00:48:23,640 --> 00:48:25,520
Speaker 2: January sixth, And if they haven't, then I think they're

1081
00:48:25,520 --> 00:48:27,080
Speaker 2: going to pay a big price for it. So that

1082
00:48:27,120 --> 00:48:29,120
Speaker 2: would be my response on a lot of that, Like

1083
00:48:29,360 --> 00:48:31,839
Speaker 2: just mechanically, a lot of the things that happened last

1084
00:48:31,840 --> 00:48:34,280
Speaker 2: time cannot happen again. And if they want to see

1085
00:48:34,520 --> 00:48:37,399
Speaker 2: in state court and lose every single case like they

1086
00:48:37,400 --> 00:48:39,719
Speaker 2: did last time around, be my guest, I guess you

1087
00:48:39,719 --> 00:48:41,160
Speaker 2: know you want to waste some legal fees.

1088
00:48:41,280 --> 00:48:44,880
Speaker 1: Fine, it just feels like you're talking about, you know, Okay,

1089
00:48:45,040 --> 00:48:48,360
Speaker 1: the exact set of circumstances that led to the exact

1090
00:48:48,440 --> 00:48:52,600
Speaker 1: situation of January sixth have you know, have been somewhat mitigated, so.

1091
00:48:52,560 --> 00:48:54,080
Speaker 4: We don't have anything to worry about.

1092
00:48:54,680 --> 00:48:57,600
Speaker 1: And when I think about that, about the events of

1093
00:48:57,640 --> 00:48:59,359
Speaker 1: January six and stop the steal in all of that,

1094
00:49:00,120 --> 00:49:03,160
Speaker 1: it's less about Okay, Can that exact sequence of events

1095
00:49:03,200 --> 00:49:03,800
Speaker 1: happen again?

1096
00:49:04,080 --> 00:49:04,560
Speaker 4: I don't know.

1097
00:49:05,320 --> 00:49:07,799
Speaker 1: Probably not because he's not president right now, so that

1098
00:49:07,840 --> 00:49:10,160
Speaker 1: makes things that, you know, makes things different right there.

1099
00:49:10,640 --> 00:49:15,879
Speaker 1: But can is that indicative of the type of thing

1100
00:49:16,440 --> 00:49:18,720
Speaker 1: that he can foment when he's at his worst?

1101
00:49:19,200 --> 00:49:19,480
Speaker 4: Yes?

1102
00:49:19,680 --> 00:49:22,520
Speaker 1: And is that indicative of you know, when you put

1103
00:49:22,520 --> 00:49:25,839
Speaker 1: that together with what the people many people who are

1104
00:49:25,880 --> 00:49:28,279
Speaker 1: in his administration, including his own vice president who stood

1105
00:49:28,280 --> 00:49:32,480
Speaker 1: by him through everything up into the very end, what

1106
00:49:32,600 --> 00:49:35,560
Speaker 1: they say about his worst impulses. You know, I think

1107
00:49:35,600 --> 00:49:38,480
Speaker 1: that that is I think that is very troubling and

1108
00:49:38,520 --> 00:49:42,040
Speaker 1: should be taken seriously. And then, you know, the last

1109
00:49:42,040 --> 00:49:43,719
Speaker 1: thing I'll say that we can move on to to

1110
00:49:43,800 --> 00:49:46,200
Speaker 1: Cammalist town Hall and take a look at what she's

1111
00:49:46,360 --> 00:49:48,920
Speaker 1: saying in her closing closing pitch and also some of

1112
00:49:48,920 --> 00:49:51,680
Speaker 1: the latest polls. But the last thing I'll say is also,

1113
00:49:52,000 --> 00:49:54,280
Speaker 1: you do have a different landscape now with the Supreme

1114
00:49:54,320 --> 00:49:56,880
Speaker 1: Court really saying like you have carbe blanche and so

1115
00:49:57,080 --> 00:50:01,400
Speaker 1: even that theoretical institutional chet of you know, the highest

1116
00:50:01,400 --> 00:50:04,839
Speaker 1: court in the land is now effectively gone. So if

1117
00:50:04,880 --> 00:50:08,000
Speaker 1: you're taking that away, you're taking away any of the

1118
00:50:08,000 --> 00:50:11,440
Speaker 1: people who were like, you know, institutionalists who were writing

1119
00:50:11,440 --> 00:50:13,840
Speaker 1: memos to him saying, you know, like Don McGahn writing

1120
00:50:14,360 --> 00:50:16,480
Speaker 1: memos to him saying was you cannot just turn the

1121
00:50:16,480 --> 00:50:20,360
Speaker 1: Department of Justice into your own like like toy to

1122
00:50:20,400 --> 00:50:24,080
Speaker 1: prosecute your political enemies. You just literally can't do that.

1123
00:50:24,200 --> 00:50:27,920
Speaker 1: You take those people out of the picture. And you know,

1124
00:50:28,080 --> 00:50:30,520
Speaker 1: I think it is I think it is a dangerous

1125
00:50:30,560 --> 00:50:34,000
Speaker 1: situation and one that people should take into consideration.

1126
00:50:34,080 --> 00:50:35,000
Speaker 4: Now, I'm not telling.

1127
00:50:34,719 --> 00:50:36,640
Speaker 1: People how they have to vote, or that this has

1128
00:50:36,680 --> 00:50:39,360
Speaker 1: to be their number one issue, et cetera. But you know,

1129
00:50:39,440 --> 00:50:41,200
Speaker 1: a factor in the people who were in the room

1130
00:50:41,200 --> 00:50:43,480
Speaker 1: with him, who saw how he operates and how he thinks,

1131
00:50:43,960 --> 00:50:47,040
Speaker 1: and to take into consideration what we've seen happen and

1132
00:50:47,080 --> 00:50:50,120
Speaker 1: his own public comments. You know, I don't think it's

1133
00:50:50,120 --> 00:50:53,560
Speaker 1: like dranged, dur insane. Oh to take those things very

1134
00:50:53,760 --> 00:50:55,439
Speaker 1: seriously given what we've seen at the time.

1135
00:50:55,360 --> 00:50:57,160
Speaker 3: I don't think is dranger insane. People can make up

1136
00:50:57,160 --> 00:50:58,040
Speaker 3: their minds themselves.

1137
00:51:00,440 --> 00:51:03,360
Speaker 2: All right, let's go to the town hall, like you said,

1138
00:51:03,400 --> 00:51:05,000
Speaker 2: And before we get to that, we're going to start

1139
00:51:05,000 --> 00:51:07,320
Speaker 2: with a little bit of polling. There was a fun

1140
00:51:07,600 --> 00:51:09,920
Speaker 2: analysis here by Nate Silver. Let's put this up there

1141
00:51:10,120 --> 00:51:12,919
Speaker 2: on the screen. Silver writes in a new column, quote,

1142
00:51:12,960 --> 00:51:15,359
Speaker 2: here's what my gut says about the election. But don't

1143
00:51:15,360 --> 00:51:18,839
Speaker 2: trust anyone's gut, even mine. And actually, if you read

1144
00:51:18,960 --> 00:51:22,080
Speaker 2: the column, Crystal, he basically says, if you asked me

1145
00:51:22,120 --> 00:51:24,800
Speaker 2: to trust my gut, I've been vacuuming so much media

1146
00:51:25,120 --> 00:51:27,839
Speaker 2: and looking at so much disparate data that I think

1147
00:51:27,880 --> 00:51:29,880
Speaker 2: that Donald Trump is going to win. But that's exactly

1148
00:51:29,960 --> 00:51:32,560
Speaker 2: why you shouldn't even trust my gut. I mean, I

1149
00:51:32,560 --> 00:51:35,160
Speaker 2: don't know, what do you think the fact that he

1150
00:51:35,280 --> 00:51:37,040
Speaker 2: says his gut thinks that Trump is going to win,

1151
00:51:37,239 --> 00:51:40,120
Speaker 2: it means something to me. I don't actually take seriously

1152
00:51:40,160 --> 00:51:43,560
Speaker 2: his whole don't trust my gut. Sean Trendy over at RCP,

1153
00:51:44,560 --> 00:51:46,640
Speaker 2: somebody who was a real canary ahead of the twenty

1154
00:51:46,680 --> 00:51:47,360
Speaker 2: sixteen election.

1155
00:51:47,640 --> 00:51:49,320
Speaker 3: So I've always trusted what he has to say. He

1156
00:51:49,360 --> 00:51:50,080
Speaker 3: actually said the same thing.

1157
00:51:50,120 --> 00:51:51,600
Speaker 2: He's like, Yeah, if you asked me to put my

1158
00:51:51,680 --> 00:51:53,960
Speaker 2: chips on something, I would put it on Trump. And

1159
00:51:54,000 --> 00:51:55,600
Speaker 2: he's like, but the smarter move, if I was at

1160
00:51:55,600 --> 00:51:56,960
Speaker 2: the table, would be to get all my chips and

1161
00:51:56,960 --> 00:52:00,200
Speaker 2: walk away, and for what the outcome would be. So

1162
00:52:00,480 --> 00:52:03,480
Speaker 2: I can't totally handwave it away. And there are signs,

1163
00:52:03,520 --> 00:52:05,760
Speaker 2: you know, there are signs everywhere. Harry Enton, for example,

1164
00:52:06,040 --> 00:52:09,160
Speaker 2: over at CNN talking about independence and some of the

1165
00:52:09,200 --> 00:52:11,840
Speaker 2: movement away from Kamala Harris, Let's take.

1166
00:52:11,680 --> 00:52:13,200
Speaker 14: A listen center of the electorate.

1167
00:52:13,239 --> 00:52:15,760
Speaker 15: You go last time around, Joe Biden won these voters

1168
00:52:15,760 --> 00:52:18,839
Speaker 15: by eleven points. You look at September of twenty twenty four,

1169
00:52:18,880 --> 00:52:22,000
Speaker 15: a month ago, Kamala Harris was up five points among independents.

1170
00:52:22,320 --> 00:52:25,040
Speaker 15: You look now, though, look at this, she's only up

1171
00:52:25,080 --> 00:52:28,360
Speaker 15: by two points among a key block center of the electorate,

1172
00:52:28,560 --> 00:52:30,960
Speaker 15: down nine points where from Biden was at the end

1173
00:52:30,960 --> 00:52:33,360
Speaker 15: of the twenty twenty campaign. Of course, this is a

1174
00:52:33,480 --> 00:52:36,319
Speaker 15: national picture. This is a national picture. What is going

1175
00:52:36,360 --> 00:52:39,759
Speaker 15: on in those key battleground states Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, the

1176
00:52:39,800 --> 00:52:43,399
Speaker 15: Great Lakes, that blue wall, right, Joe Biden last time

1177
00:52:43,440 --> 00:52:46,640
Speaker 15: around one and by five points over Donald Trump. Look

1178
00:52:46,719 --> 00:52:48,880
Speaker 15: at where we are today. This is the type of

1179
00:52:48,920 --> 00:52:51,440
Speaker 15: movement Donald Trump likes to see in the center of

1180
00:52:51,440 --> 00:52:53,839
Speaker 15: the electorate. Up by a point now, of course that's

1181
00:52:53,880 --> 00:52:56,240
Speaker 15: well with than any margin of arra right. But again,

1182
00:52:56,280 --> 00:52:59,399
Speaker 15: it's the movement. It's the trends, mister Verman, that we're

1183
00:52:59,400 --> 00:52:59,879
Speaker 15: looking at.

1184
00:53:00,080 --> 00:53:00,520
Speaker 14: And when you.

1185
00:53:00,480 --> 00:53:03,160
Speaker 15: Flip a group from going plus five Biden to now

1186
00:53:03,239 --> 00:53:06,200
Speaker 15: plus one Trump, that's the type of movement Donald Trump

1187
00:53:06,480 --> 00:53:08,640
Speaker 15: loves to say. And it's a type of movement that

1188
00:53:08,640 --> 00:53:11,799
Speaker 15: I think gives democrats some ageitiz use. Usually the way

1189
00:53:11,920 --> 00:53:15,600
Speaker 15: independence go so goes the nation. So candidates who won

1190
00:53:15,640 --> 00:53:18,960
Speaker 15: independence and elections since nineteen hundred and fifty two, look

1191
00:53:19,000 --> 00:53:23,319
Speaker 15: at this one independence won the election fifteen lost the

1192
00:53:23,480 --> 00:53:26,440
Speaker 15: election despite winning independence just three so it is possible

1193
00:53:26,480 --> 00:53:29,000
Speaker 15: to lose independence and win the election. But the bottom

1194
00:53:29,040 --> 00:53:31,680
Speaker 15: line is that's only happened three times. It was Nixon

1195
00:53:31,719 --> 00:53:33,719
Speaker 15: in sixty eight, it was four and seventy six, and

1196
00:53:33,760 --> 00:53:35,080
Speaker 15: it was carrying two thousand and four.

1197
00:53:35,280 --> 00:53:36,680
Speaker 2: There you go, and if you take a lot of it,

1198
00:53:36,760 --> 00:53:38,239
Speaker 2: that data coming out, We're going to talk about it

1199
00:53:38,239 --> 00:53:40,680
Speaker 2: in our next block about Nevada. Things are looking very

1200
00:53:40,760 --> 00:53:43,400
Speaker 2: very good for Republicans, at the very least clearly the

1201
00:53:43,440 --> 00:53:47,160
Speaker 2: movement amongst Latinos and all there is very obvious, and

1202
00:53:47,400 --> 00:53:50,920
Speaker 2: for traditional blue demographics not coming out to vote or

1203
00:53:50,920 --> 00:53:53,680
Speaker 2: at the very least being outnumbered pretty dramatically. So I

1204
00:53:53,760 --> 00:53:55,920
Speaker 2: put all that together and I mean, it's relatively a

1205
00:53:55,920 --> 00:53:58,040
Speaker 2: good situation for Trump, but of course, you know, a

1206
00:53:58,040 --> 00:54:00,239
Speaker 2: lot can happen. And what we talked about with Dave

1207
00:54:00,239 --> 00:54:04,200
Speaker 2: Wigel remains a key point. Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina

1208
00:54:04,239 --> 00:54:06,120
Speaker 2: can all go Trump and calmuck. It's still with in

1209
00:54:06,120 --> 00:54:08,239
Speaker 2: the election. As long as the Nebraska what is it

1210
00:54:08,239 --> 00:54:08,879
Speaker 2: Nebraska one?

1211
00:54:09,040 --> 00:54:12,080
Speaker 3: Is that what it is? I've forgot whatever that Nebraska.

1212
00:54:12,200 --> 00:54:14,120
Speaker 4: Whatever, the one that's the swing district question.

1213
00:54:14,000 --> 00:54:16,000
Speaker 2: Swing district as long as it goes there to go

1214
00:54:16,000 --> 00:54:17,440
Speaker 2: two hundred and seventy electors, and.

1215
00:54:17,360 --> 00:54:19,640
Speaker 1: The poll that one looks like pretty much it's in

1216
00:54:19,680 --> 00:54:21,719
Speaker 1: the bag for them based on what we've got, what

1217
00:54:21,800 --> 00:54:24,120
Speaker 1: I've seen right now. But yeah, so if you get

1218
00:54:24,120 --> 00:54:26,000
Speaker 1: that and you get the Blue Wall States, and I

1219
00:54:26,080 --> 00:54:29,120
Speaker 1: do feel like based on the polling we've seen and

1220
00:54:29,160 --> 00:54:31,000
Speaker 1: based on the tea leaves you can read from the

1221
00:54:31,040 --> 00:54:34,480
Speaker 1: early vote, the Blue Wall States are going in a

1222
00:54:34,520 --> 00:54:37,240
Speaker 1: different direction than the sun Belt state, which was hard.

1223
00:54:37,040 --> 00:54:39,600
Speaker 2: To say in PA, but in the in the rest

1224
00:54:39,640 --> 00:54:41,680
Speaker 2: of them, in Michigan specifically, it does look good for them.

1225
00:54:41,880 --> 00:54:44,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, and it would make some sense, right, I mean,

1226
00:54:44,280 --> 00:54:47,359
Speaker 1: just given the different demographic groups, how they're shifting and

1227
00:54:47,400 --> 00:54:51,440
Speaker 1: realigning the campaign's different strategies, et cetera. But you know,

1228
00:54:51,600 --> 00:54:56,640
Speaker 1: if you want to understand the Kamala Harris strategy down

1229
00:54:56,680 --> 00:54:59,560
Speaker 1: the stretch of like the Liz Cheney tour and the

1230
00:55:00,840 --> 00:55:05,000
Speaker 1: you know, the going on Fox News and the fascism

1231
00:55:05,239 --> 00:55:08,319
Speaker 1: democracy pitch here at the end, I think it's all

1232
00:55:08,440 --> 00:55:11,640
Speaker 1: because they see those numbers with independence and they feel

1233
00:55:11,680 --> 00:55:14,560
Speaker 1: they need to shore them up, and they're concerned that

1234
00:55:14,880 --> 00:55:17,319
Speaker 1: people's top two. You know, the things that are holding

1235
00:55:17,400 --> 00:55:21,360
Speaker 1: them back from Harris are number one, Trump's favorability creeping

1236
00:55:21,440 --> 00:55:23,279
Speaker 1: up a little bit, so he doesn't seem like as

1237
00:55:23,280 --> 00:55:25,319
Speaker 1: bad as he used to seem, so trying to you know,

1238
00:55:25,400 --> 00:55:28,759
Speaker 1: remind people of like the worst parts of him. And

1239
00:55:29,120 --> 00:55:33,759
Speaker 1: number two that they can't quite envision Kamala Harris in

1240
00:55:33,920 --> 00:55:37,200
Speaker 1: the commander in chief role and so you know that

1241
00:55:37,280 --> 00:55:39,960
Speaker 1: she's too liberal and she's a lightweight if that's the

1242
00:55:39,960 --> 00:55:45,440
Speaker 1: core of the campaigns and analysis of why they think independence

1243
00:55:45,440 --> 00:55:47,399
Speaker 1: aren't quite as firmly in her camp as they were

1244
00:55:47,480 --> 00:55:50,600
Speaker 1: with Joe Biden. Like that's what is leading them to

1245
00:55:50,920 --> 00:55:53,840
Speaker 1: the strategy, which again it's not a strategy I'm particularly

1246
00:55:53,920 --> 00:55:56,440
Speaker 1: in love with, but that's I think the way that

1247
00:55:56,440 --> 00:55:57,960
Speaker 1: they're thinking about these things.

1248
00:55:58,000 --> 00:55:59,960
Speaker 4: And so we'll see the big question.

1249
00:56:00,040 --> 00:56:02,879
Speaker 1: And you know, one of the big questions with independence

1250
00:56:03,280 --> 00:56:07,560
Speaker 1: is previously a lot of times there were significant numbers

1251
00:56:07,600 --> 00:56:10,000
Speaker 1: of independents who were just like basically Republicans who just

1252
00:56:10,040 --> 00:56:12,160
Speaker 1: didn't really want to call themselves Republicans but then always

1253
00:56:12,239 --> 00:56:15,120
Speaker 1: voted for the Republican. Now with you have a trend

1254
00:56:15,320 --> 00:56:18,359
Speaker 1: of a lot of young voters who are new into

1255
00:56:18,400 --> 00:56:22,120
Speaker 1: the system who don't want to identify call themselves Democrats

1256
00:56:22,160 --> 00:56:24,160
Speaker 1: and have all kinds of issues with the Democratic Party

1257
00:56:24,360 --> 00:56:26,840
Speaker 1: or Democrats, but will vote Democrat. And who are you know,

1258
00:56:26,880 --> 00:56:29,200
Speaker 1: who are ultimately like you know, a lot of Bernie

1259
00:56:29,280 --> 00:56:31,839
Speaker 1: type young people who are like, no, I don't really

1260
00:56:31,840 --> 00:56:34,040
Speaker 1: associate with the Democratic Party. But there's no way in

1261
00:56:34,080 --> 00:56:37,200
Speaker 1: hell they're voting for Republicans, especially young women.

1262
00:56:37,719 --> 00:56:37,880
Speaker 3: You know.

1263
00:56:37,960 --> 00:56:41,200
Speaker 1: I think that's particularly like a significant trend there, And

1264
00:56:41,320 --> 00:56:42,959
Speaker 1: that was one thing we're going to talk some about

1265
00:56:43,000 --> 00:56:45,120
Speaker 1: the Nevada early vote numbers, which, by the way, I

1266
00:56:45,120 --> 00:56:47,200
Speaker 1: do think, look, you know, good for Republicans. I don't

1267
00:56:47,200 --> 00:56:49,440
Speaker 1: think there's any like spinning that away. But one of

1268
00:56:49,440 --> 00:56:51,719
Speaker 1: the things that was being pointed out is a lot

1269
00:56:51,760 --> 00:56:55,479
Speaker 1: of the independents who are voting in Nevada are pretty young,

1270
00:56:56,040 --> 00:56:58,799
Speaker 1: and there is this trend in American life now of

1271
00:56:58,880 --> 00:57:04,080
Speaker 1: young people identify as independence but disproportionately voting Democrats. So anyway,

1272
00:57:04,160 --> 00:57:06,040
Speaker 1: we'll see how it all shakes out. We'll see if

1273
00:57:06,040 --> 00:57:08,920
Speaker 1: those people show up to vote on election day or before.

1274
00:57:09,040 --> 00:57:10,759
Speaker 2: That is a good corollary, and that is one way

1275
00:57:10,800 --> 00:57:12,920
Speaker 2: where Nevada could still go blue is if the what

1276
00:57:13,000 --> 00:57:15,239
Speaker 2: is it called other? I think on the ballot it's

1277
00:57:15,239 --> 00:57:17,640
Speaker 2: not independent. It actually is like unidentified.

1278
00:57:18,880 --> 00:57:19,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think that's what it is.

1279
00:57:19,960 --> 00:57:22,000
Speaker 4: But anyway, other, let's go with that.

1280
00:57:22,040 --> 00:57:24,360
Speaker 2: Okay, let's get to the town hall. This is really

1281
00:57:24,720 --> 00:57:28,160
Speaker 2: it was interesting stuff. So CNN last night was supposed

1282
00:57:28,160 --> 00:57:30,880
Speaker 2: to be a debate, and previously had been one that

1283
00:57:30,880 --> 00:57:33,439
Speaker 2: they had floated where Donald Trump would appear. They ended

1284
00:57:33,480 --> 00:57:35,640
Speaker 2: up turning it into a town hall and there were

1285
00:57:35,640 --> 00:57:38,680
Speaker 2: a couple of different areas which we thought were interesting.

1286
00:57:38,760 --> 00:57:42,080
Speaker 2: First and foremost is one that Kamala has really struggled on,

1287
00:57:42,120 --> 00:57:44,720
Speaker 2: this question of what would you do differently from Biden?

1288
00:57:44,800 --> 00:57:46,680
Speaker 3: And then also have you ever made a mistake?

1289
00:57:46,720 --> 00:57:49,000
Speaker 2: What I put in those two is the category of

1290
00:57:49,040 --> 00:57:52,160
Speaker 2: like political introspection and the opportunity to clean up something

1291
00:57:52,400 --> 00:57:55,120
Speaker 2: that you see with the American people. Frankly, I thought

1292
00:57:55,120 --> 00:57:57,080
Speaker 2: she had a terrible answer, but you'd make up your mind.

1293
00:57:57,280 --> 00:57:58,000
Speaker 2: Let's take a listen.

1294
00:57:58,040 --> 00:58:00,080
Speaker 9: I don't think i've ever heard the former president had

1295
00:58:00,160 --> 00:58:03,240
Speaker 9: made a mistake. A lot of politicians don't. Is there

1296
00:58:03,360 --> 00:58:05,919
Speaker 9: something you can point to in your life, political life,

1297
00:58:06,040 --> 00:58:07,959
Speaker 9: or in your life in the last four years.

1298
00:58:07,760 --> 00:58:10,480
Speaker 14: That you think is a mistake? That you have learned from.

1299
00:58:12,720 --> 00:58:19,000
Speaker 8: I mean, I've made many mistakes and they range from

1300
00:58:19,360 --> 00:58:22,280
Speaker 8: you know, if you've ever parented a child, you know

1301
00:58:22,400 --> 00:58:26,600
Speaker 8: you make lots of mistakes too. In my role as

1302
00:58:26,760 --> 00:58:31,120
Speaker 8: vice president, I mean, I've probably worked very hard at

1303
00:58:31,280 --> 00:58:37,320
Speaker 8: making sure that I am well versed on issues, and

1304
00:58:38,440 --> 00:58:40,640
Speaker 8: I think that is very important. It's a mistake not

1305
00:58:40,720 --> 00:58:42,680
Speaker 8: to be well versed on an issue and feel compelled

1306
00:58:42,680 --> 00:58:43,560
Speaker 8: to answer a question.

1307
00:58:49,280 --> 00:58:52,560
Speaker 1: You know, It's so funny because she struggles the most.

1308
00:58:52,600 --> 00:58:54,200
Speaker 1: I feel like almost in friendly settings.

1309
00:58:54,440 --> 00:58:55,360
Speaker 3: I totally agree.

1310
00:58:55,760 --> 00:58:58,560
Speaker 1: When you know, when she sat down with Brett Barry,

1311
00:58:58,760 --> 00:59:00,920
Speaker 1: you and I had a different analysis of that interview,

1312
00:59:01,080 --> 00:59:03,720
Speaker 1: but you could when we shared the assessment of was

1313
00:59:03,720 --> 00:59:06,080
Speaker 1: her debate performance right? She knew it was going to

1314
00:59:06,080 --> 00:59:10,040
Speaker 1: be adversary, though she prepared like crazy, and the questions

1315
00:59:10,080 --> 00:59:12,880
Speaker 1: none of them are like this sort of soft and squish.

1316
00:59:12,880 --> 00:59:15,160
Speaker 1: She like, tell me about you, And that's when she struggles.

1317
00:59:15,320 --> 00:59:17,959
Speaker 1: Is when you get the softball, like tell me about

1318
00:59:18,000 --> 00:59:20,960
Speaker 1: a mistake you made, or tell me about you know,

1319
00:59:21,480 --> 00:59:25,200
Speaker 1: something personal that requires you to be like have say

1320
00:59:25,240 --> 00:59:28,280
Speaker 1: something that wasn't in the briefing book, that's when she

1321
00:59:28,360 --> 00:59:31,560
Speaker 1: really struggles. And also I think in these settings that

1322
00:59:31,600 --> 00:59:34,080
Speaker 1: are more friendly. I also don't think she prepares for

1323
00:59:34,120 --> 00:59:37,200
Speaker 1: the same degree and comes in with the She doesn't

1324
00:59:37,200 --> 00:59:39,240
Speaker 1: come in in the same mental space and with the

1325
00:59:39,240 --> 00:59:41,560
Speaker 1: same level preparation that she does for a breadbare or

1326
00:59:41,600 --> 00:59:44,800
Speaker 1: a Trump interview. So yeah, when you ask her just

1327
00:59:44,840 --> 00:59:48,040
Speaker 1: to say something like normal and human, she hasn't studied

1328
00:59:48,080 --> 00:59:49,280
Speaker 1: the answer and she struggles.

1329
00:59:49,360 --> 00:59:52,760
Speaker 2: The crazy part about preparation, she didn't do anything yesterday.

1330
00:59:52,800 --> 00:59:54,760
Speaker 2: If you look at her schedule, she had one thing,

1331
00:59:54,920 --> 00:59:57,640
Speaker 2: that three minute press conference on John Kelly.

1332
00:59:57,640 --> 00:59:59,680
Speaker 3: She took no questions. That was it.

1333
01:00:00,000 --> 01:00:02,560
Speaker 2: She was at there at her house preparing for the

1334
01:00:02,680 --> 01:00:05,200
Speaker 2: CNN town hall. So what were you doing when you

1335
01:00:05,240 --> 01:00:09,680
Speaker 2: were preparing? It's mystifying. Another area where Cooper really caught

1336
01:00:09,680 --> 01:00:11,960
Speaker 2: her was on em This was actually a fun short

1337
01:00:11,960 --> 01:00:15,920
Speaker 2: circuit moment because Democrats and Kamma clearly are used to

1338
01:00:16,360 --> 01:00:19,560
Speaker 2: four years of making fun of Trump on the border wall.

1339
01:00:19,440 --> 01:00:21,680
Speaker 3: And of being totally opposed to his border policy.

1340
01:00:21,880 --> 01:00:24,080
Speaker 2: Of course, ever since she became the candidate, she's like, no,

1341
01:00:24,160 --> 01:00:26,120
Speaker 2: I agree with the border bill, and that at the

1342
01:00:26,200 --> 01:00:29,320
Speaker 2: very least contains some of Trump's border policy. So she

1343
01:00:29,640 --> 01:00:32,520
Speaker 2: is short circuits halfway in between because she has the

1344
01:00:32,560 --> 01:00:35,360
Speaker 2: old routine and Cooper's like, hold on, wait a second,

1345
01:00:35,400 --> 01:00:38,000
Speaker 2: don't you also support a border wall? And you can

1346
01:00:38,080 --> 01:00:41,160
Speaker 2: watch like the gears turning in her head. Let's take

1347
01:00:41,160 --> 01:00:41,560
Speaker 2: a listen.

1348
01:00:41,920 --> 01:00:43,120
Speaker 14: Is a border wall stupid?

1349
01:00:43,760 --> 01:00:46,080
Speaker 8: Well, let's talk about Donald Trump and that border wall?

1350
01:00:47,560 --> 01:00:50,560
Speaker 8: So remember Donald Trump said Mexico would pay for it.

1351
01:00:51,640 --> 01:00:54,920
Speaker 8: Come on, they didn't. How much of that wall did

1352
01:00:54,960 --> 01:00:55,480
Speaker 8: he build?

1353
01:00:55,600 --> 01:00:56,120
Speaker 14: I think the.

1354
01:00:56,160 --> 01:00:58,040
Speaker 8: Last number I saw I was about two percent. And

1355
01:00:58,080 --> 01:00:59,640
Speaker 8: then when it came time for him to do a

1356
01:00:59,680 --> 01:01:02,080
Speaker 8: photo up, you know where he did it in the

1357
01:01:02,120 --> 01:01:04,240
Speaker 8: part of the wall that President Obama built.

1358
01:01:04,400 --> 01:01:06,240
Speaker 9: But you're agreed to a bill that would ear mark

1359
01:01:06,280 --> 01:01:09,080
Speaker 9: six hundred and fifty million dollars to continue building that way.

1360
01:01:09,120 --> 01:01:12,480
Speaker 8: I pledge that I am going to bring forward that

1361
01:01:12,560 --> 01:01:17,919
Speaker 8: bipartisan bill to further strengthen and secure our border. Yes

1362
01:01:18,040 --> 01:01:20,640
Speaker 8: i am, and I'm going to work across the aisle

1363
01:01:21,320 --> 01:01:26,640
Speaker 8: to pass a comprehensive bill that deals with a broken

1364
01:01:26,760 --> 01:01:31,480
Speaker 8: immigration system. I think Jackson's question part of it was

1365
01:01:31,840 --> 01:01:36,840
Speaker 8: to acknowledge that America has always had migration, but there

1366
01:01:36,880 --> 01:01:40,280
Speaker 8: needs to be a legal process for it. People have

1367
01:01:40,320 --> 01:01:43,360
Speaker 8: to earn it, and that's the point that I think

1368
01:01:43,440 --> 01:01:45,959
Speaker 8: is the most important point that can be made, which

1369
01:01:46,000 --> 01:01:50,040
Speaker 8: is we need a president oh is grounded in common

1370
01:01:50,120 --> 01:01:53,600
Speaker 8: sense and practical outcomes, like let's just fix this thing,

1371
01:01:54,000 --> 01:01:57,840
Speaker 8: Let's just fix it. Why is there any ideological perspective

1372
01:01:57,880 --> 01:01:59,880
Speaker 8: on the let's just fix the problem.

1373
01:02:00,480 --> 01:02:03,480
Speaker 9: To fix the problem, you're doing this compromise bill. It

1374
01:02:03,520 --> 01:02:05,720
Speaker 9: does call for six hundred and fifty million dollars that

1375
01:02:05,800 --> 01:02:08,160
Speaker 9: was ear marked under Trump to actually still go to

1376
01:02:08,160 --> 01:02:08,720
Speaker 9: build the world.

1377
01:02:08,760 --> 01:02:10,520
Speaker 8: I'm not afraid of good ideas where they occurred.

1378
01:02:11,120 --> 01:02:13,960
Speaker 14: You don't think it's stupid anymore. I think what he.

1379
01:02:14,000 --> 01:02:16,400
Speaker 8: Did and how he did it was did not make

1380
01:02:16,480 --> 01:02:18,840
Speaker 8: much sense because he actually didn't do much of anything.

1381
01:02:20,160 --> 01:02:22,320
Speaker 8: I just talked about that wall, right, we just.

1382
01:02:22,320 --> 01:02:22,840
Speaker 9: Talked about it.

1383
01:02:22,840 --> 01:02:24,840
Speaker 8: He didn't actually do much of anything.

1384
01:02:25,240 --> 01:02:27,720
Speaker 14: But you do want to build some wall.

1385
01:02:27,840 --> 01:02:29,680
Speaker 8: I want to strengthen our border.

1386
01:02:31,240 --> 01:02:32,560
Speaker 4: See this is brutal.

1387
01:02:32,840 --> 01:02:35,800
Speaker 1: You know, I've been a critic of this major immigration

1388
01:02:36,320 --> 01:02:39,880
Speaker 1: imagine going back to twenty sixteen and telling us that

1389
01:02:39,960 --> 01:02:42,680
Speaker 1: a Democrat would flail around and stumble and not know

1390
01:02:42,720 --> 01:02:44,040
Speaker 1: what to say on.

1391
01:02:44,000 --> 01:02:46,920
Speaker 4: What is the border wall? Good or back? Like smart?

1392
01:02:47,320 --> 01:02:51,360
Speaker 1: And you know, I know what they're doing is their

1393
01:02:51,400 --> 01:02:53,840
Speaker 1: ideas like let's try to blunt this idea that she's

1394
01:02:53,880 --> 01:02:55,960
Speaker 1: too liberal and just going to open the borders and

1395
01:02:56,000 --> 01:02:59,440
Speaker 1: blah blah blah. But I just think this answer right

1396
01:02:59,480 --> 01:03:04,000
Speaker 1: here simplifies why. I mean, obviously I have issues with

1397
01:03:04,000 --> 01:03:06,720
Speaker 1: the morality of their new like we want to be

1398
01:03:07,120 --> 01:03:08,760
Speaker 1: more hawckey, We're going to try to get to Trump's

1399
01:03:08,800 --> 01:03:10,560
Speaker 1: right on immigration policy.

1400
01:03:10,160 --> 01:03:12,080
Speaker 3: Like I have more going to fish at.

1401
01:03:12,240 --> 01:03:16,040
Speaker 1: But on the this answer exemplifies why the politics of

1402
01:03:16,080 --> 01:03:16,720
Speaker 1: it are.

1403
01:03:16,600 --> 01:03:17,200
Speaker 4: A mess too.

1404
01:03:17,760 --> 01:03:21,760
Speaker 1: And you know, she goes back to this tick of

1405
01:03:21,840 --> 01:03:23,640
Speaker 1: when something's uncomfortable, she laughs.

1406
01:03:23,720 --> 01:03:26,160
Speaker 4: So we saw this in both of the last two questions,

1407
01:03:26,200 --> 01:03:27,760
Speaker 4: and I do it too.

1408
01:03:27,880 --> 01:03:30,200
Speaker 1: She's trying to make a joke about Trump and just

1409
01:03:30,280 --> 01:03:33,200
Speaker 1: try hope that Anderson is going to move away. And

1410
01:03:33,320 --> 01:03:36,360
Speaker 1: to his credit, he's like, but wait a second. You

1411
01:03:36,480 --> 01:03:39,000
Speaker 1: used to say the border wall is dumb. Now you're

1412
01:03:39,040 --> 01:03:42,200
Speaker 1: saying you need money just before the border wall. And

1413
01:03:42,280 --> 01:03:44,560
Speaker 1: she can't say anything other than like, well, the way

1414
01:03:44,600 --> 01:03:46,959
Speaker 1: he did it is bad because he didn't build enough

1415
01:03:47,000 --> 01:03:49,760
Speaker 1: border wall, but also not willing to go back on

1416
01:03:49,800 --> 01:03:51,640
Speaker 1: me saying that the border wall was dumb and bad.

1417
01:03:51,720 --> 01:03:57,520
Speaker 1: So it's just it's just a mess, and it exacerbates

1418
01:03:57,720 --> 01:04:02,400
Speaker 1: the issues around She doesn't stay for anything, and she's

1419
01:04:02,560 --> 01:04:04,640
Speaker 1: a bit of a lightweight. That's what kind of comes

1420
01:04:04,640 --> 01:04:10,000
Speaker 1: across in this question. So yeah, again, to me, this

1421
01:04:10,160 --> 01:04:14,080
Speaker 1: is example number one of why I think the way

1422
01:04:14,120 --> 01:04:17,960
Speaker 1: that they have approached immigration by just totally ceding to

1423
01:04:18,000 --> 01:04:22,640
Speaker 1: the Republican argument, has been a moral number one, but

1424
01:04:22,800 --> 01:04:26,160
Speaker 1: political mistake because it opens you up for moments like

1425
01:04:26,160 --> 01:04:28,880
Speaker 1: this which are really fundamentally unanswerable given the position they've

1426
01:04:28,880 --> 01:04:29,320
Speaker 1: stayed down.

1427
01:04:29,400 --> 01:04:30,360
Speaker 3: I O, well, a twofold.

1428
01:04:30,400 --> 01:04:32,440
Speaker 2: So you either own it and then you don't start

1429
01:04:32,480 --> 01:04:34,919
Speaker 2: out by reverting to your twenty sixteen talking points about

1430
01:04:34,920 --> 01:04:37,880
Speaker 2: the border wall and then get called out there almost immediately,

1431
01:04:38,040 --> 01:04:40,040
Speaker 2: or like you said, you don't change your position or

1432
01:04:40,080 --> 01:04:41,720
Speaker 2: whatever in the first place, but when you try and

1433
01:04:41,760 --> 01:04:43,960
Speaker 2: do both, you look like an idiot, and that that's.

1434
01:04:43,760 --> 01:04:44,680
Speaker 3: Really yeah came.

1435
01:04:44,840 --> 01:04:46,800
Speaker 1: I mean, if you're really going to do this pivot,

1436
01:04:46,920 --> 01:04:49,280
Speaker 1: probably the best thing to do would be like, look,

1437
01:04:49,320 --> 01:04:49,560
Speaker 1: you know.

1438
01:04:49,560 --> 01:04:50,800
Speaker 4: What I was wrong?

1439
01:04:50,840 --> 01:04:52,760
Speaker 3: Yeah, exactly what hers with Ben here.

1440
01:04:52,880 --> 01:04:55,120
Speaker 1: We saw that and we adjusted, and that's what I'm

1441
01:04:55,120 --> 01:04:55,440
Speaker 1: gonna do.

1442
01:04:55,480 --> 01:04:57,560
Speaker 4: I'm gonna I learn I'm not.

1443
01:04:57,520 --> 01:05:00,680
Speaker 1: So ideological that I don't adjust for new facts and

1444
01:05:00,760 --> 01:05:03,120
Speaker 1: realities and the reality is blah blah blah blah.

1445
01:05:02,880 --> 01:05:05,000
Speaker 3: Blah' where I was like, yeah, and that's a good answer.

1446
01:05:05,080 --> 01:05:06,840
Speaker 4: That would be a lot better.

1447
01:05:07,200 --> 01:05:09,920
Speaker 1: But you know, politicians, they never want to admit that

1448
01:05:10,000 --> 01:05:12,160
Speaker 1: they got anything wrong. They think it makes them look

1449
01:05:12,200 --> 01:05:16,080
Speaker 1: weak and bad, whereas stumbling around like this in a

1450
01:05:16,160 --> 01:05:21,000
Speaker 1: completely nonsensical way just makes it look like you don't

1451
01:05:21,160 --> 01:05:21,840
Speaker 1: stand for anything.

1452
01:05:21,840 --> 01:05:23,080
Speaker 4: And there you go, you probably don't.

1453
01:05:23,160 --> 01:05:25,680
Speaker 2: All right, she got a question two on high prices

1454
01:05:25,680 --> 01:05:27,880
Speaker 2: and inflation from these were all, by the way, actual

1455
01:05:27,960 --> 01:05:30,160
Speaker 2: unregistered voters, at least from what we can tell, they

1456
01:05:30,160 --> 01:05:31,840
Speaker 2: don't seem as planted as last time.

1457
01:05:31,880 --> 01:05:32,800
Speaker 3: So let's take a listen.

1458
01:05:32,960 --> 01:05:34,840
Speaker 14: Let me just ask you about price gouging. I looked

1459
01:05:34,880 --> 01:05:35,600
Speaker 14: at your plan.

1460
01:05:36,720 --> 01:05:38,920
Speaker 9: You talk about going after price gougers, and I'm quoting

1461
01:05:38,920 --> 01:05:42,640
Speaker 9: from the plan on essential goods during emergencies or times

1462
01:05:42,680 --> 01:05:43,520
Speaker 9: of crisis.

1463
01:05:44,240 --> 01:05:44,840
Speaker 14: I get that.

1464
01:05:45,000 --> 01:05:47,840
Speaker 9: How does that help though, someone like Eric with prices

1465
01:05:47,880 --> 01:05:50,720
Speaker 9: that for years the grocery price has just been high.

1466
01:05:51,240 --> 01:05:54,400
Speaker 8: Well, first of all, Anderson, as you know, and obviously

1467
01:05:54,440 --> 01:05:58,240
Speaker 8: Sann has been covering extensively what has been happening in

1468
01:05:58,280 --> 01:06:02,640
Speaker 8: the state of Georgia. North Carolina, Florida. It's a real issue.

1469
01:06:03,000 --> 01:06:05,440
Speaker 8: I was Attorney General of California. I was the top

1470
01:06:05,520 --> 01:06:07,680
Speaker 8: law enforcement officer of the biggest state in the country.

1471
01:06:07,920 --> 01:06:09,880
Speaker 8: I took this issue on because it affects a lot

1472
01:06:09,960 --> 01:06:12,520
Speaker 8: of people. And I'm not going to apologize for the

1473
01:06:12,520 --> 01:06:16,800
Speaker 8: fact that we need to actually deal with accountability when

1474
01:06:17,080 --> 01:06:21,720
Speaker 8: these not all in fact most don't. But when companies

1475
01:06:21,760 --> 01:06:24,080
Speaker 8: are taking advantage of the desperation and the need of

1476
01:06:24,120 --> 01:06:26,520
Speaker 8: the American people. We saw it actually during the pandemic

1477
01:06:26,560 --> 01:06:30,480
Speaker 8: as well, where because of supply chain issues there was

1478
01:06:30,640 --> 01:06:34,040
Speaker 8: a reduction of supply and then they would inflate the

1479
01:06:34,120 --> 01:06:37,840
Speaker 8: price of everyday necessities. Not to mention, by the way, again,

1480
01:06:38,040 --> 01:06:40,880
Speaker 8: Donald Trump should be here tonight to talk with you

1481
01:06:40,920 --> 01:06:44,480
Speaker 8: and answer your questions. Not he refused to come. But

1482
01:06:44,680 --> 01:06:47,920
Speaker 8: understand that part of his plan is to put in

1483
01:06:47,960 --> 01:06:51,400
Speaker 8: place a national sales tax of at least twenty percent

1484
01:06:52,480 --> 01:06:58,800
Speaker 8: on everyday goods and necessities, and that by economist estimates

1485
01:06:58,840 --> 01:07:02,840
Speaker 8: independent economists, would cost you, as the American consumer and

1486
01:07:02,880 --> 01:07:05,760
Speaker 8: taxpair and additional four thousand dollars a year.

1487
01:07:06,040 --> 01:07:08,800
Speaker 2: So you know, that remains one of our better moments

1488
01:07:08,880 --> 01:07:10,480
Speaker 2: now in terms of what they're closing with you hear

1489
01:07:10,560 --> 01:07:12,080
Speaker 2: some of that. You're hearing a lot of the character

1490
01:07:12,160 --> 01:07:14,600
Speaker 2: stuff as well. Maybe that's a media thing. I'm not

1491
01:07:14,640 --> 01:07:15,960
Speaker 2: so sure, but you know, I wanted to do at

1492
01:07:16,000 --> 01:07:17,240
Speaker 2: least I guess a fair presentation.

1493
01:07:17,320 --> 01:07:17,560
Speaker 12: Yeah.

1494
01:07:17,760 --> 01:07:21,960
Speaker 1: First, well, I think it appears that they're spending a

1495
01:07:21,960 --> 01:07:24,560
Speaker 1: lot of money in swing states on ads that focus

1496
01:07:24,600 --> 01:07:24,919
Speaker 1: on that.

1497
01:07:24,800 --> 01:07:25,560
Speaker 3: Message right there.

1498
01:07:26,000 --> 01:07:28,920
Speaker 1: And it also appears from the polling on who do

1499
01:07:28,960 --> 01:07:32,480
Speaker 1: you trust on various economic issues that some of this

1500
01:07:32,600 --> 01:07:36,640
Speaker 1: messaging has broken through. There was a Bloomberg Swing state poll.

1501
01:07:36,720 --> 01:07:38,480
Speaker 1: Maybe we can add this in post guys so people

1502
01:07:38,480 --> 01:07:41,840
Speaker 1: can see, But on every economic issue that they surveyed,

1503
01:07:41,920 --> 01:07:44,560
Speaker 1: Kamala Harris had closed the trust gap or even surpassed

1504
01:07:44,600 --> 01:07:47,200
Speaker 1: Trump as the candidate that swing state voters trust. More so,

1505
01:07:47,240 --> 01:07:49,480
Speaker 1: on taxes, Kamala Harris had a little bit of an

1506
01:07:49,520 --> 01:07:53,560
Speaker 1: advantage on interest rates, It was very close. On housing costs,

1507
01:07:53,560 --> 01:07:55,680
Speaker 1: she had an advantage on cost of everyday goods. They

1508
01:07:55,680 --> 01:07:59,040
Speaker 1: were basically tied on healthcare costs. Advantage gas prices was

1509
01:07:59,080 --> 01:08:01,400
Speaker 1: the one where he had the largest gap, but even

1510
01:08:01,440 --> 01:08:05,400
Speaker 1: there she had closed it significantly. So you know, I

1511
01:08:05,440 --> 01:08:08,200
Speaker 1: do think some of this is breaking through I think

1512
01:08:08,720 --> 01:08:12,280
Speaker 1: the relentless focus in terms of the ad dollars has worked,

1513
01:08:12,360 --> 01:08:14,800
Speaker 1: and it has become an area that is less of

1514
01:08:14,800 --> 01:08:18,040
Speaker 1: a vulnerability for her than it might otherwise have been.

1515
01:08:18,320 --> 01:08:20,880
Speaker 1: And I think that the other question that people have is, like,

1516
01:08:21,240 --> 01:08:23,400
Speaker 1: you know, they may like her plans better, they may

1517
01:08:23,400 --> 01:08:25,360
Speaker 1: not have confidence that any of it is really going

1518
01:08:25,400 --> 01:08:27,479
Speaker 1: to have And I think that's a general statement about

1519
01:08:27,520 --> 01:08:31,680
Speaker 1: the sort of reasonable, like pragmatic nihilism that people have

1520
01:08:31,760 --> 01:08:34,200
Speaker 1: about anything getting done in Washington at this point, which

1521
01:08:34,240 --> 01:08:36,960
Speaker 1: is not you know, which is not illogical given the

1522
01:08:37,840 --> 01:08:41,640
Speaker 1: given how there's just nothing but good luck as far

1523
01:08:41,640 --> 01:08:44,639
Speaker 1: as I can see in Washington, DC. So in any case,

1524
01:08:44,720 --> 01:08:47,599
Speaker 1: I do think that she deserves credit for the set

1525
01:08:47,640 --> 01:08:48,600
Speaker 1: of policies.

1526
01:08:48,160 --> 01:08:48,880
Speaker 4: She's put together.

1527
01:08:49,240 --> 01:08:51,559
Speaker 1: The ads that they're running on these issues are actually

1528
01:08:51,960 --> 01:08:55,559
Speaker 1: very effective, I think, and the way that she's messaged

1529
01:08:55,600 --> 01:08:57,120
Speaker 1: on it has clearly done her some favors.

1530
01:08:57,160 --> 01:08:58,600
Speaker 2: With us, it's done a little bit favorite and she

1531
01:08:58,680 --> 01:09:00,600
Speaker 2: just closed that gap on the economy critical if she

1532
01:09:00,600 --> 01:09:02,439
Speaker 2: does end up squeezing it out, that's actually gonna be

1533
01:09:02,439 --> 01:09:03,000
Speaker 2: a key reason.

1534
01:09:03,120 --> 01:09:03,320
Speaker 4: Yeah.

1535
01:09:03,360 --> 01:09:05,040
Speaker 3: Why, So, final thing I just.

1536
01:09:04,960 --> 01:09:07,920
Speaker 2: Wanted to show was David Axelrod just admitting some of

1537
01:09:07,960 --> 01:09:12,599
Speaker 2: the unmittable previously about quote word salad city from Kamala

1538
01:09:12,640 --> 01:09:15,320
Speaker 2: Harris and is after action on the town hall, Let's

1539
01:09:15,320 --> 01:09:15,880
Speaker 2: take a listen.

1540
01:09:16,120 --> 01:09:19,679
Speaker 13: When she doesn't want to answer a question, her habit

1541
01:09:19,960 --> 01:09:22,920
Speaker 13: is to kind of go to world word salad city.

1542
01:09:23,040 --> 01:09:25,120
Speaker 13: And she did that on a couple of answers. One

1543
01:09:25,160 --> 01:09:27,600
Speaker 13: was on Israel. Anderson asked a direct question, would you

1544
01:09:27,640 --> 01:09:31,880
Speaker 13: be stronger on Israel than Trump? And there was a

1545
01:09:31,920 --> 01:09:34,720
Speaker 13: seven minute answer, but none of it related to the

1546
01:09:34,800 --> 01:09:36,160
Speaker 13: question he was asking.

1547
01:09:38,080 --> 01:09:41,840
Speaker 3: True, I mean Salid City. It was clear too.

1548
01:09:41,920 --> 01:09:44,400
Speaker 2: You know, other people there felt kind of uncomfortable, and

1549
01:09:44,439 --> 01:09:46,360
Speaker 2: I saw Van Jones say that as well.

1550
01:09:46,400 --> 01:09:48,400
Speaker 3: That's where the whole like she has to be flawless.

1551
01:09:48,439 --> 01:09:51,600
Speaker 2: He's like almost doing a media criticism element there, but

1552
01:09:51,760 --> 01:09:53,800
Speaker 2: actual Rod ran the Obama campaign and he gets it.

1553
01:09:53,840 --> 01:09:56,880
Speaker 1: I do think that it is fair to say Trump

1554
01:09:56,960 --> 01:09:59,519
Speaker 1: is just how to He just is a unique polity.

1555
01:10:00,040 --> 01:10:01,960
Speaker 4: He is held to a different standard. There's no doubt

1556
01:10:02,000 --> 01:10:02,360
Speaker 4: about it.

1557
01:10:02,439 --> 01:10:04,439
Speaker 1: You know, if a story like the one we cover

1558
01:10:04,520 --> 01:10:07,240
Speaker 1: with Dave Weigel, the equivalent of that, I don't even

1559
01:10:07,280 --> 01:10:09,120
Speaker 1: know what it would be with Kamala Harris came out,

1560
01:10:09,640 --> 01:10:12,320
Speaker 1: it would be a big story like a close Jeffrey

1561
01:10:12,360 --> 01:10:16,720
Speaker 1: Epstein associate and some sort of you know, sexual scandal,

1562
01:10:16,920 --> 01:10:19,439
Speaker 1: like it would be a big media story, and because

1563
01:10:19,439 --> 01:10:22,880
Speaker 1: of Trump, it's not. Trump is given all kinds of

1564
01:10:22,920 --> 01:10:26,799
Speaker 1: interviews where you read his words and you're like, I

1565
01:10:26,880 --> 01:10:29,880
Speaker 1: just literally don't even know what you are talking about

1566
01:10:30,120 --> 01:10:33,120
Speaker 1: right now, And again, it just doesn't get the same

1567
01:10:33,360 --> 01:10:36,080
Speaker 1: level of attention and scrutiny as when Kamala Harris goes

1568
01:10:36,120 --> 01:10:39,599
Speaker 1: to Ward salad ditty. But I mean that's kind of

1569
01:10:39,640 --> 01:10:42,800
Speaker 1: just the political reality and landscape that we live in.

1570
01:10:43,320 --> 01:10:47,760
Speaker 1: He does have his own set of unique standards that

1571
01:10:47,800 --> 01:10:51,200
Speaker 1: he is held to that are just different than literally

1572
01:10:51,280 --> 01:10:53,719
Speaker 1: any other politician, Republican or Democratic, exist.

1573
01:10:53,520 --> 01:10:56,559
Speaker 3: Absolutely like again, ye Shakespeare wants

1574
01:11:01,479 --> 01:11:01,879
Speaker 12: Speaks