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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast, the number one show

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Speaker 1: for the invested sports fan.

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Speaker 2: All Right, here we go.

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Speaker 3: It's the most wonderful time.

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Speaker 1: What's up the generate nation? Welcome to the Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 1: This is the College Football bull Betting Preview, Part five.

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Speaker 1: I'm stucky in with me as always is Colin Wilson.

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Speaker 2: What's going on? Colin? You ready for the end of

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Speaker 2: all season or you?

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Speaker 4: I mean, I mean, these bulls have been I'm not

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Speaker 4: gonna complain. I'm gonna be one of those people that

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Speaker 4: sits back and complains about how the officiating has been

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Speaker 4: bad or the win post win expectancy is just not

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Speaker 4: gone on my favorite. This is what I know. I'm

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Speaker 4: beating the market and it's not paying off, and that's

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Speaker 4: no big deal. It's just how bowl season goes. Yeah,

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Speaker 4: I'm ready for the season to be over. I'm gonna

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Speaker 4: start for the national title. I've had about twenty twenty

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Speaker 4: five were just ridiculous, bad beats and picked sixes.

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Speaker 1: And I mean, but last year I had a ton

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Speaker 1: go my way, So I mean, it was an evening

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Speaker 1: out season for me in college football. But I mean,

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Speaker 1: my last straw, it kind of broke me. I mean,

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Speaker 1: I can't remember the last time at a backdoor this year,

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Speaker 1: but we were getting hurt for Baylor. But the idea, whatever

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Speaker 1: that happens the Florida State was just they do they

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Speaker 1: do a plus four and a half, they closed three,

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Speaker 1: and then they're up in the fourth quarter at an

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Speaker 1: illegal fair catch signal, so they have to start the

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Speaker 1: ball the two and then then they obviously throw a

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Speaker 1: pick six and then they you know, I'm still fine

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Speaker 1: if I was honest, that doesn't get the two point conversion,

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Speaker 1: and of course they get the two point conversion somehow

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Speaker 1: breaking like seventeen tackles.

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Speaker 2: So that game was just it's just I.

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Speaker 4: Mean, yesterday for me was probably Alabama Michigan because I

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Speaker 4: was comfortable cruising with the under. I've got that early

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Speaker 4: touchdown there from from Alabama that the jud eighty five yarder.

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Speaker 4: Was happy to live bet the under again. I just

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Speaker 4: felt like it was going to be a different pace game.

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Speaker 4: And then the live bets came in the Michigan plus

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Speaker 4: ten and a half, the Michigan plus fourteen and a half,

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Speaker 4: and I'm feeling pretty good because Michigan was keeping it

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Speaker 4: close to the entire time, it looked like that they

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Speaker 4: could account. I mean, they were leading at halftime, right,

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Speaker 4: and so for Saban just to jab it in there

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Speaker 4: when he easily could have taken a knee to in

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Speaker 4: the game, I mean, blew everybody, anybody that had a

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Speaker 4: live bet or live total or I mean, that was

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Speaker 4: just an asshole move. I mean, that was a say,

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Speaker 4: I don't know what's going with the beef between Saban

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Speaker 4: harbaugh is, but you could have taken a knee And

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Speaker 4: next thing you know out here is you know, Shaye

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Speaker 4: Patterson spiking the ball with one second left to get

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Speaker 4: a playoff down by what sixteen nineteen points. I mean,

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Speaker 4: it's just I think I think the lesson learned, because

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Speaker 4: I mean there's a lesson taken for each one of

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Speaker 4: these bulls is, don't make a high dollar investment. Now,

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Speaker 4: the National Championship's going to be a little bit different,

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Speaker 4: and the semifinal was a little bit different.

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Speaker 2: But I just there's not going to.

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Speaker 4: Be any more, you know, higher than normal unit investments

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Speaker 4: for me coming out of Bowls season because these things

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Speaker 4: have been true exhibitions.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, now I'm I'm on the same page of the

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Speaker 1: I mean, and the officiating has been so bad. I mean,

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Speaker 1: I'm sitting there watching that Baylor Georgia game yesterday and

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Speaker 1: that first half, I mean, there was just some atrocious calls.

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Speaker 2: But whatever, I digress.

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Speaker 1: Today we touch on the FCS game, but well, we

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Speaker 1: have a couple of balls.

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Speaker 2: Left in bowl season. Next week we may do.

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Speaker 1: A podcast on the College Football National Championship.

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Speaker 2: We may not. More news to come there.

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Speaker 1: We're definitely gonna do a live show, so we'll have

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Speaker 1: a live podcast from Westgate super Book.

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Speaker 2: We'll have it.

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Speaker 1: We'll do a show there, so we might do a

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Speaker 1: podcast in addition to that. I'm not sure yet. We'll

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Speaker 1: figure it out. But speaking of before we get to

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Speaker 1: this interview, I spoke with John Murray from the Westgate

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Speaker 1: super Book, a friend of the podcast, about the college

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Speaker 1: football semi Finals, how they did there, where the money

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Speaker 1: is coming in, and his thoughts on the line for

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Speaker 1: LSU Clemson. Also what the book needs this weekend in

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Speaker 1: the NFL for Wildcard weekend. So we went through all

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Speaker 1: four games. It's about a twenty to twenty five minute interview,

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Speaker 1: which I think was very insightful. We even talked about

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Speaker 1: teasers and last year when I was in Vegas, the

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Speaker 1: NFL playwers one would let me bet a teaser. So

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Speaker 1: we go through whether or not I'll be allowed to

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Speaker 1: bet teasers this year.

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Speaker 2: You were so shocked.

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Speaker 4: I'll never hear it your face.

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Speaker 2: You were.

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Speaker 4: You were so upset, like about this whole I can't

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Speaker 4: bet a teaser thing like you were just.

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Speaker 2: The NFL plows.

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Speaker 1: This is Las Vegas and no sportsbook would take a

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Speaker 1: fucking teaser Like it's ridiculous. They were just like, we're

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Speaker 1: not doing teasers today.

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Speaker 2: I'm like, this isn't like the preseason. This is the

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Speaker 2: NFL divisional round.

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Speaker 1: What do you mean you're not doing teasers today.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, we talked about that as well.

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Speaker 1: But we got our NFL podcast up yesterday and it

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Speaker 1: actually went up this morning. We recorded yesterday, so I

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Speaker 1: had to work through that and didn't have any money

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Speaker 1: on Oregon Wisconsin. But I initially potentially wanted to bet

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Speaker 1: on Oregon because I thought it was more of a

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Speaker 1: coin flip. But from what I saw of what I've

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Speaker 1: read is that that was a brutal beat if you

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Speaker 1: had Wisconsin. I didn't see almost any of the games.

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Speaker 1: Can you what happened in that game?

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Speaker 4: I did have Wisconsin in that game, I had them

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Speaker 4: pick on open and then bought a little when it

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Speaker 4: was at two and a half. Four turnovers on the

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Speaker 4: organ side, I mean, it was so outrageous to.

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Speaker 1: War Wisconsin's organ's office into anything, right, like for most

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Speaker 1: of them, not.

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Speaker 2: Really, I mean I think they were.

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Speaker 4: They barely got over two hundred yards on the very

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Speaker 4: last play of the game on the last run for

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Speaker 4: Herbert there. You know, Herbert was essentially Trevor Lawrence. Wisconsin

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Speaker 4: did not account for him taking off out of the pocket.

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Speaker 4: He was the extra guy that they didn't account for

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Speaker 4: when you know, there was a drop back passing situation,

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Speaker 4: and that's how they scrapped most of the yards. That's

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Speaker 4: how they got most of their points. Wisconsin literally fielded

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Speaker 4: took the snap on a punt and instead of dropping

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Speaker 4: it to your foot, which you do which like a

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Speaker 4: six year old does to try to punt the ball,

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Speaker 4: literally the punter just threw it on the turf. It

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Speaker 4: was picked up with one hand by Oregon and ran

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Speaker 4: into the end zone. So I mean that was one

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Speaker 4: example of how Oregon scored their points. So yeah, a

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Speaker 4: whole bunch of turnovers there that were just out rageously

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Speaker 4: and a terrible, a terrible offensive pass interference called that

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Speaker 4: you know is being memed everywhere for Paul Chris.

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Speaker 2: But I mean they tried to.

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Speaker 4: Explain it every which way about how you could basically

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Speaker 4: have a pick play but you can't hit him straight

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Speaker 4: in the numbers with your head.

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Speaker 2: It was, it was.

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Speaker 4: The explanation was a farce. The officiating was a farce.

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Speaker 4: But you know what the gambling gods given they take.

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Speaker 4: Because I had justin Ross just the other day, which

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Speaker 4: I thought made a catch, maybe not make a football move,

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Speaker 4: but drop the ball in the turf in Ohio state

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Speaker 4: got points wiped off the board. So these things happen

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Speaker 4: with gambling. But I mean with Wisconsin backers, I was

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Speaker 4: right there with you.

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Speaker 2: Now.

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Speaker 4: I was happy to shave to live bet for a unit,

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Speaker 4: you know, an Oregon A unit when it got up

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Speaker 4: around five and a half, because I knew that this

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Speaker 4: was gonna be a three point ball game. But you know,

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Speaker 4: hats off to Oregon and Crystal Bowl and what they're

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Speaker 4: doing with recruiting and winning this game. But Wisconsin had

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Speaker 4: it the entire time. They had some really bad calls.

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Speaker 4: They had a couple of special team ashaps that got

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Speaker 4: organ to the window.

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Speaker 2: All right to joining us.

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Speaker 1: Now. As I said before, as John Mary from the

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Speaker 1: Westgate Super Book out in Vegas, friend of the Pod,

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Speaker 1: what's going on, John?

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Speaker 2: Happy New Year?

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Speaker 3: Happy New Year?

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Speaker 2: Man?

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Speaker 3: How's it going.

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Speaker 2: Getting ready here for NFL playoffs? You know, balls are

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Speaker 2: winding down.

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Speaker 1: There's only a couple ones left, so that's kind of sad.

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Speaker 1: But the national championship should be awesome. We'll get to

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Speaker 1: that in a second, but let's first focus on the

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Speaker 1: College wall playoffs semi finals. How did you guys make

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Speaker 1: out and what we were just overall general thoughts on

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Speaker 1: both games.

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Speaker 3: You know, we did better than I think maybe we

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Speaker 3: should have. We kind of got lucky. We had some

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Speaker 3: big house players betting Ohio State on the money line.

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Speaker 3: We had so many parlays that went to the over

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Speaker 3: in that game. Talking about the Fiesta Bowl, we took

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Speaker 3: a pretty big loss on the Peach Bowl. Everybody bet LSU,

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Speaker 3: everybody bet the over, but so much of the parlay

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Speaker 3: action went to over in the Clemson Ohio State game.

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Speaker 3: So that game thing under was huge for us. It

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Speaker 3: seemed like everybody to bet Clemson parlayd Clemson to the

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Speaker 3: over and everybody to bet Ohio State had played Ohio

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Speaker 3: State on the money line. If Clemson won that game

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Speaker 3: twenty four to twenty three with the field goal there

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Speaker 3: on that last drive, it would have been the biggest

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Speaker 3: win I've ever seen at this book on a on

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Speaker 3: a non super Bowl. Ever, the number was like comical

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Speaker 3: because all the Ohio State betters were taking We're taking

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Speaker 3: the money line.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean it looks like for a while that

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Speaker 1: was exactly what was going to happen, which was interesting.

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Speaker 1: Now were looking at that game just from you know,

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Speaker 1: the eye test, right, the thing that I took away

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Speaker 1: from it is whoa lsu? I mean seven touchdowns of

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Speaker 1: the first half that easily could have had touchdowns on

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Speaker 1: every single drive of the game. And then you look

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Speaker 1: at Clemson and we knew how good they were, I

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Speaker 1: mean know how good Ohio State was. But when you

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Speaker 1: watch that game, did you come away and say, you know,

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Speaker 1: Ohi State maybe should have won that game with a

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Speaker 1: few calls here, a few drops there. So just from

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Speaker 1: your eye tests, were you less impressed with Clemson? You

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Speaker 1: thought because it was Clemson's first real test of the year.

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Speaker 3: I completely agree with what you said about the drops

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Speaker 3: I mean, everybody's blaming the rests. And I didn't agree

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Speaker 3: with the overturned call of the scoop and score. I

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Speaker 3: thought that was a bad call. But really, Ohio State

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Speaker 3: left too many points on the board in the first half.

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Speaker 3: You know JK. Dobbins dropped that one screen past they

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Speaker 3: had a perp we called screen pass. He was going

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Speaker 3: to walk into the end zone. He dropped that they

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Speaker 3: had to settle for a field goal. He had another

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Speaker 3: player where he dropped the ball that probably should have

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Speaker 3: been a touchdown. You know, Ohio State could have been

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Speaker 3: up twenty four to nothing, twenty eight to nothing instead

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Speaker 3: of sixteen to nothing. They left too many points on

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Speaker 3: the board in the first half, and I think that's

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Speaker 3: why Clempson ultimately escaped. I didn't really have a problem

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Speaker 3: with the other calls. The targeting call, I didn't really

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Speaker 3: have a problem with that call. And then that certainly

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Speaker 3: the roughing the punter. That was roughing the punter. So

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Speaker 3: if Ohio State wants to blame anyone, they should blame

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Speaker 3: the kid that roughed the Clemson punter. I don't know

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Speaker 3: how he blamed the ref for that call, but ultimately,

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Speaker 3: to me, Clempson in Ohio State were both kind of

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Speaker 3: what I thought they were. I mean, it was a

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Speaker 3: dogfight between two really really outstanding teams. And I think

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Speaker 3: Ohio State's clearly the best team of the college football

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Speaker 3: playoff era that didn't get to the national championship game.

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Speaker 3: We just had three really outstanding teams this year, and

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Speaker 3: unfortunately for Ohio State it looks like they might have

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Speaker 3: peaked in the wrong year.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, no, you're right.

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Speaker 1: I mean, just just those two Dobbins drops, that's eight.

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Speaker 1: That's an eight to eight extra points for Ohio State,

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Speaker 1: and right they get that, they probably win the game

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Speaker 1: with Dobbins also got caught. I don't know how that happened.

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Speaker 1: He got caught from behind, and then they had a

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Speaker 1: point and then that's that ends up being sixty nothing

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Speaker 1: instead of you know, potentially twenty to twenty nothing, and

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Speaker 1: then it's a whole different ballgame then.

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Speaker 3: Absolutely, And I was really impressed with Akuda, the Ohio

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Speaker 3: State corner and just the Ohio State secondary in general.

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Speaker 3: I was so impressed with them. They manhandled those Clemson

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Speaker 3: receivers t Higgins justin ross. Those guys are first round

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Speaker 3: picks in their own right. They got manhandled in that game.

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Speaker 3: They couldn't do anything. I thought Trevor Lawrence was was

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Speaker 3: sensational in that game to be able to move the

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Speaker 3: ball down the field against Ohio States defense when you're

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Speaker 3: getting basically nothing from your wide receivers. Your wide receivers

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Speaker 3: aren't getting any separation, they're not making any plays for you.

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Speaker 3: For him to still go down the field and score

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Speaker 3: those touchdowns to win the game, I can't say enough

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Speaker 3: about how much how highly I think of Trevor Lawrence.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, you're right, you barely heard those receivers names throughout

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Speaker 1: the game. I think of Fuda is going to be

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Speaker 1: a special corner at the next level, as he recently

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Speaker 1: he recently declared for the.

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Speaker 2: Draft as well.

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Speaker 1: So, you know, this is one of the most interesting

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Speaker 1: things that I think that I've seen in you know,

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Speaker 1: almost you know, fifteen twenty years of doing this is

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Speaker 1: the over I've never seen an overreaction or.

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Speaker 2: An over adjustment level that I trust numbers and just

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Speaker 2: the market in general.

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Speaker 1: Obviously, I think that there's overreaction square money in the market.

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Speaker 1: But from where this line would have been a couple

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Speaker 1: of weeks ago to where it is now, for the

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Speaker 1: national championship of LSU minus five five and a half.

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Speaker 1: You know, maybe a month ago, Clemson is is a

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Speaker 1: small favorite here and all Clemson's done is continue to cover.

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Speaker 1: I think they've covered for two months straight. But you know,

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Speaker 1: LSU does what they did in the college with all

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Speaker 1: semifinal you can expect there to be some of a reaction.

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Speaker 1: But talk to me about where you open this line,

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Speaker 1: what type of money you have seen since, and where

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Speaker 1: you expected to go.

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Speaker 3: Well for starters. I agree with you. I think the

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Speaker 3: numbers an overreaction. You know, we we've had Clemson a

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Speaker 3: little bit better than LSU the whole way. I thought

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Speaker 3: they were about three points better than LSU going into

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Speaker 3: the weekend. Now I understand this game is the super Dome,

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Speaker 3: so there was always going to be a couple points

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Speaker 3: going LSU's way. There the de facto the home field

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Speaker 3: advantage for LSU in this game. I still think this

293
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Speaker 3: really real number is closer to pick them or maybe

294
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Speaker 3: LSU a very small favorite. And I think it's a

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Speaker 3: total overreaction to what we saw over the weekend because,

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Speaker 3: like I said, Clemson played an historically great Ohio State team.

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Speaker 3: This is probably the best team the Big Tens produced

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Speaker 3: in the last decade, and LSU played an Oklahoma team

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Speaker 3: that really had no business being in the College Football

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Speaker 3: Playoff that was only there because they had to fill

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Speaker 3: out a field of four teams and some of the

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Speaker 3: SEC teams choked at the end of the year. I

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Speaker 3: think it's a total overreaction. We opened at three and

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Speaker 3: a half. We immediately went to four. We had a

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Speaker 3: guy come in. He laid fifty thousand to minus four.

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Speaker 3: We went to four and a half. The money just

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Speaker 3: kept coming in, nothing but LSU money. We got up

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Speaker 3: to I think we got as high as five and

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Speaker 3: a half. Briefly we came back down to five. There

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Speaker 3: was a lot of six on the market in town

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Speaker 3: a couple of days ago, but it looks like some

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Speaker 3: sharper players bought up that six. Most everybody's seen to

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Speaker 3: be at five or five and a half right now.

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Speaker 3: I actually think, if anything, it might come down a

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Speaker 3: little bit. The only way I think this number could

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Speaker 3: go up is if all the favorites cover divisional playoff

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Speaker 3: weekend next weekend in the NFL, so many parlays are

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Speaker 3: gonna roll from those divisional playoff games into LSU on

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Speaker 3: Monday night. You might see some books panic when they

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Speaker 3: see their liability to the LSU Tigers in that game,

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Speaker 3: and then they might raise the number up.

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Speaker 2: But you don't think that there's any shot.

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Speaker 1: There's so much LSU money that there's no shot this

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Speaker 1: thing comes even below four.

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Speaker 2: I mean, I could see it maybe get in the four.

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Speaker 1: But I mean, if you're if you're someone what's LSU

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Speaker 1: mights three, you're never going to get that right pretty much.

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Speaker 2: I don't.

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Speaker 3: I don't think there's any way you'll see three. I

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Speaker 3: don't even four. There's just so much support for LSU, man.

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Speaker 3: I mean, I know, I think we're we're kind of

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Speaker 3: on exactly the same page and how we view this

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Speaker 3: game and how we view the market overreaction. But the

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Speaker 3: bottom line is, at all the big money so far

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Speaker 3: is coming in on LSU. We've got about a four

336
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Speaker 3: to one Ticke account on LSU right now, which is

337
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Speaker 3: pretty lopsided for a game of this magnitude. And then

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Speaker 3: the other thing, at least at our book, we win

339
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Speaker 3: a huge number on Clemson to win the national championship

340
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Speaker 3: in the futures pool, so we're okay writing a little

341
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Speaker 3: bit of money on Clemson right now, because we're gonna

342
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Speaker 3: even if we take a big bet on Clemson side,

343
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Speaker 3: we're still gonna win a ton if they win this game.

344
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Speaker 3: So we don't really see much of a reason to

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Speaker 3: lower the number, at least not right now.

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Speaker 2: And then in regards to the total, anything there early.

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Speaker 3: Mostly under bets on the total. Right now, we're at seventy.

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Speaker 3: We had opened it. I think we opened at seventy one.

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Speaker 3: Right when we first put this thing up. We went

350
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Speaker 3: to seventy and a half. We're now at seventy. I

351
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Speaker 3: don't really have a strong strong take. I mean, that

352
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Speaker 3: feels like about as high as it could ever be.

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Speaker 3: It's funny to me to see totals like that in

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Speaker 3: the National Championship game and see a total of seventy.

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Speaker 3: But we really liked the Peach Bowl over and we

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Speaker 3: booked it like that because we didn't see how We

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Speaker 3: didn't see how either team or how Oklahoma could ever

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Speaker 3: stop LSU from scoring, and we thought Oklahoma would be

359
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Speaker 3: able to score two. But Clempson is a much different

360
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Speaker 3: beast defensively. I don't think that these LSU receivers are

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Speaker 3: just going to be running wide open all over the

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Speaker 3: field against Clemson the way they were against Oklahoma.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean LSU realistically could have scored what one

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Speaker 1: hundred points if that game was competitive.

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Speaker 2: I mean, I mean that was.

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Speaker 3: It really reminded me of those early season games when

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Speaker 3: these SEC schools play some layup game against some FCS

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Speaker 3: team and it's not even like a challenge for them.

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Speaker 3: That's what it looked like. It was an embarrassing performance

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Speaker 3: for Oklahoma and for the Big Twelve, because I agree

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Speaker 3: with you, if Oklahoma could have matched them score for score,

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Speaker 3: I don't see why LSU couldn't have scored one hundred points.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it was crazy.

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Speaker 1: And the thing that I think most a lot of

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Speaker 1: people aren't talking about is in future years and you

376
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Speaker 1: should keep this in mind for you know, futures betting,

377
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Speaker 1: is that's a black eye for the Big Twelve. So

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Speaker 1: if you have a college football scenario next year, whether

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Speaker 1: you have a Big Twelve team and then someone else

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Speaker 1: on the fringe, what we've seen out of the Big

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Speaker 1: Twelve a conference that I think that the Committee has

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Speaker 1: already you know, doesn't really love, and then they look

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Speaker 1: back at this performance, I think that that can you know,

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Speaker 1: they're humans on the committee it could sway a Big

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Speaker 1: twelve team right out of the discussion.

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Speaker 3: I don't disagree with that. And you know, Oklahoma's owned

387
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Speaker 3: four in the All Football Playoff now, really only one

388
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Speaker 3: of those four games were they competitive? Talking about that

389
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Speaker 3: Rose Bowl lost to Georgia a couple of years ago,

390
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Speaker 3: and then previous to that, they'd lost their last three

391
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Speaker 3: BCS championship games. So seven straight losses in national championship

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Speaker 3: scenarios for Oklahoma. That doesn't reflect well on the Big

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Speaker 3: Twelve at all because Oklahoma was obviously the flagship program

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Speaker 3: in the Big Twelve and it's a bad look. And

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Speaker 3: Baylor getting handled pretty easily by Georgia and the Sugar

396
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Speaker 3: Bowl when Georgia was sitting several players, let's say that

397
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Speaker 3: also really isn't a good look for the Big twelve.

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Speaker 2: Yep, yep, completely agree.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's Pennott before we can get you out

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Speaker 1: of here. To the NFL this weekend for wild Card weekend.

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Speaker 1: We'll start on Saturday, Texans a two and a half

402
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Speaker 1: point favorite at home against the Bills, and then.

403
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Speaker 2: You know, you don't talk about overreactions.

404
00:16:45,240 --> 00:16:47,320
Speaker 1: Potentially the Patriots are only a four to four and

405
00:16:47,360 --> 00:16:50,000
Speaker 1: a half point favorite this line. You know, a few

406
00:16:50,000 --> 00:16:52,520
Speaker 1: weeks ago you might have seen this speed seven if

407
00:16:52,640 --> 00:16:54,480
Speaker 1: the Patriots are always a seven point favorite at home

408
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Speaker 1: in the playoffs. But that time you were on the

409
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Speaker 1: pot we were talking about, wow, the book needs the

410
00:16:59,240 --> 00:17:01,440
Speaker 1: Cowboys against the Rams in the companys. While I was

411
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Speaker 1: on as well, that came through. Is there a chance

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Speaker 1: that the book is going to need the Patriots here?

413
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Speaker 1: I guess that Ryan Tannehill on his first playoffs start.

414
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Speaker 1: What are you seeing both of those games AFC games

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Speaker 1: on Saturday.

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Speaker 3: It's possible we might we might need New England for

417
00:17:15,440 --> 00:17:18,000
Speaker 3: a little bit in the side market. But anytime New

418
00:17:18,000 --> 00:17:21,040
Speaker 3: England loses outright, it knocks out so many moneyline parlays.

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Speaker 3: So my guess would be that by the time the

420
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Speaker 3: game kicks off, our best case scenario would be the

421
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Speaker 3: Titans winning the game outright, just to knock out those parlays.

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Speaker 3: I don't think it's going to be a really big

423
00:17:29,200 --> 00:17:30,919
Speaker 3: decision though, because there is a lot of support for

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Speaker 3: Tennessee too. People don't trust New England right now. New

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00:17:33,920 --> 00:17:36,480
Speaker 3: England offense has been struggling for weeks. I've talked about

426
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Speaker 3: that many times and I know it sounds ridiculous, but

427
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Speaker 3: I think Tennessee's got a pretty big edge at the

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Speaker 3: quarterback position in this game. I just think that Belichick

429
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Speaker 3: is always capable of having one of those masterpiece games

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Speaker 3: where he totally out coaches the other guy, and maybe

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Speaker 3: it sets up like that on Saturday Night here. I

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Speaker 3: would I personally, would definitely need more than five or

433
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Speaker 3: five and a half points to bet on Tennessee.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree, I don't trust this Patriots seam as

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Speaker 1: far as I can throw them. I mean, Brady has

436
00:18:00,440 --> 00:18:02,520
Speaker 1: looked awful all year. I mean, this is a guy

437
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Speaker 1: who's completing thirty five percent of his passes under pressure,

438
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Speaker 1: worse than the NFL. I would agree, I need a

439
00:18:07,200 --> 00:18:09,119
Speaker 1: maybe six or seven to look at Tennessee. But the

440
00:18:09,200 --> 00:18:11,840
Speaker 1: dream scenario is the Patriots, you know, in the rain,

441
00:18:12,080 --> 00:18:14,440
Speaker 1: get a couple of breaks, put together a great game plan,

442
00:18:14,560 --> 00:18:16,800
Speaker 1: and then they roll, and then people start taking New

443
00:18:16,800 --> 00:18:19,440
Speaker 1: England's back because I think that the funeral of their

444
00:18:19,520 --> 00:18:21,800
Speaker 1: era might be next weekend in Kansas City. Yeah.

445
00:18:21,880 --> 00:18:24,760
Speaker 3: The only thing is, like I that's what I said

446
00:18:24,800 --> 00:18:28,000
Speaker 3: last year going into the AFC Championship game, and all

447
00:18:28,040 --> 00:18:30,440
Speaker 3: of our guys here we loved the Chiefs in that game,

448
00:18:30,720 --> 00:18:33,840
Speaker 3: and Brady just puts together this throwback performance and they

449
00:18:34,080 --> 00:18:35,440
Speaker 3: somehow win in Arrowheads.

450
00:18:35,480 --> 00:18:38,960
Speaker 1: So at least you saw the glimpses of Brady last year.

451
00:18:39,040 --> 00:18:41,800
Speaker 1: I mean there has been He's a shell of himself.

452
00:18:41,800 --> 00:18:43,760
Speaker 1: I don't know if he's hurt or it's just he's

453
00:18:43,840 --> 00:18:46,120
Speaker 1: just the age is showing. But you know, Father Time

454
00:18:46,240 --> 00:18:49,160
Speaker 1: is undefeated, but there's there's there's something that's completely off

455
00:18:49,160 --> 00:18:49,840
Speaker 1: with this offense.

456
00:18:50,480 --> 00:18:53,040
Speaker 3: His wide receivers are doing him no favors, by the way.

457
00:18:53,160 --> 00:18:55,600
Speaker 3: I know everybody says all I do is crop on Brady,

458
00:18:55,600 --> 00:18:58,000
Speaker 3: and Brady's been really bad this year, but his receivers

459
00:18:58,000 --> 00:19:01,240
Speaker 3: are getting no separation. They're doing nothing to help him

460
00:19:01,240 --> 00:19:03,800
Speaker 3: at all. And he is an aging quarterback, so he

461
00:19:03,840 --> 00:19:05,960
Speaker 3: doesn't have the ability to just wrill the ball down

462
00:19:05,960 --> 00:19:07,880
Speaker 3: the field by himself. He needs his receivers to help

463
00:19:07,920 --> 00:19:10,720
Speaker 3: him out, as most quarterbacks do. And he's just getting

464
00:19:10,720 --> 00:19:12,600
Speaker 3: nothing from his teammates on the offensive side of the

465
00:19:12,600 --> 00:19:15,240
Speaker 3: ball this year. So it's not all on Tom Brady.

466
00:19:15,320 --> 00:19:18,199
Speaker 3: And I'm really I'm kind of baffled that I keep

467
00:19:18,280 --> 00:19:21,840
Speaker 3: reading about Josh McDaniels getting all these head coaching interviews

468
00:19:22,160 --> 00:19:24,960
Speaker 3: and I just don't understand why I don't like the

469
00:19:25,000 --> 00:19:27,879
Speaker 3: new England offense doesn't seem to be doing anything that

470
00:19:28,280 --> 00:19:30,280
Speaker 3: every team in the league couldn't do.

471
00:19:30,680 --> 00:19:32,639
Speaker 2: Yeah, there's nothing innovative about what they're doing. Yeah, I

472
00:19:32,640 --> 00:19:34,440
Speaker 2: agree with you. I mean, the offensive line isn't as good.

473
00:19:34,760 --> 00:19:36,080
Speaker 2: They clearly miss Gronk.

474
00:19:36,800 --> 00:19:38,199
Speaker 1: And then you know, there's a reason that they had

475
00:19:38,200 --> 00:19:40,879
Speaker 1: Antonio Brown and Josh Gordon in there early in the year,

476
00:19:40,880 --> 00:19:43,040
Speaker 1: who they don't have now. You know, they obviously knew

477
00:19:43,080 --> 00:19:45,280
Speaker 1: that they needed more talent at the receiving position, which

478
00:19:45,320 --> 00:19:47,040
Speaker 1: they don't have now. All right, then the other game,

479
00:19:47,080 --> 00:19:50,280
Speaker 1: anything in Bill's Texans or you think they'll be pretty split, it's.

480
00:19:50,119 --> 00:19:51,760
Speaker 3: Really going to be a split game right now. The

481
00:19:51,760 --> 00:19:54,440
Speaker 3: tech accounts basically exactly. Even we did have a guy

482
00:19:54,520 --> 00:19:56,320
Speaker 3: we respect, came in a couple of days ago. He

483
00:19:56,320 --> 00:19:58,640
Speaker 3: played Houston minus two and a half minus one ten

484
00:19:59,000 --> 00:20:01,800
Speaker 3: to win thirty thousand, and he moved us to minus

485
00:20:01,800 --> 00:20:04,600
Speaker 3: two and a half minus one twenty. Buffalo looks like

486
00:20:04,640 --> 00:20:07,200
Speaker 3: a good teaser option a relatively low total. You can

487
00:20:07,240 --> 00:20:10,280
Speaker 3: go over three, over seven, tease the Bills up to

488
00:20:10,280 --> 00:20:13,280
Speaker 3: plus eight and a half. It's an interesting game. It

489
00:20:13,320 --> 00:20:15,680
Speaker 3: really is. To me, it's a total coin flip game.

490
00:20:16,080 --> 00:20:18,239
Speaker 3: I give Buffalo the edge at every position other than

491
00:20:18,320 --> 00:20:21,800
Speaker 3: quarterback and wide receiver, but and a big edge Sean

492
00:20:21,880 --> 00:20:24,560
Speaker 3: McDermott over Bill I really yeah. I'm not a big

493
00:20:24,560 --> 00:20:26,760
Speaker 3: fan of O'Brien at all. So a better defense, a

494
00:20:26,800 --> 00:20:29,200
Speaker 3: better coach, you're getting a couple of points of Buffalo.

495
00:20:29,800 --> 00:20:31,959
Speaker 3: The concern is Josh Allen. He's a twenty three year

496
00:20:31,960 --> 00:20:34,520
Speaker 3: old kid. He's in his first playoff start. What are

497
00:20:34,560 --> 00:20:35,960
Speaker 3: you going to get out of Josh Allen? I feel

498
00:20:35,960 --> 00:20:38,400
Speaker 3: like we get flashes from him where sometimes I think

499
00:20:38,440 --> 00:20:40,120
Speaker 3: to myself, this guy is going to be a really

500
00:20:40,160 --> 00:20:43,200
Speaker 3: good NFL quarterback, Like on Thanksgiving Day, he looked great

501
00:20:43,200 --> 00:20:45,960
Speaker 3: in that game. Other times I just think to myself,

502
00:20:46,000 --> 00:20:48,119
Speaker 3: what the hell is this kid doing out there? I

503
00:20:48,119 --> 00:20:51,240
Speaker 3: don't know how. I wouldn't be too comfortable back in

504
00:20:51,240 --> 00:20:52,960
Speaker 3: Buffalo unless you do it in a teaser and you

505
00:20:53,000 --> 00:20:54,040
Speaker 3: get over that touchdown.

506
00:20:54,800 --> 00:20:57,359
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean that's I'm glad you brought that up

507
00:20:57,359 --> 00:20:58,440
Speaker 1: in our NFL pot.

508
00:20:58,480 --> 00:20:58,960
Speaker 2: I brought that up.

509
00:20:59,000 --> 00:21:02,120
Speaker 1: I said, look, I have a much better quarterback at

510
00:21:02,160 --> 00:21:03,680
Speaker 1: home laying under a field goal.

511
00:21:04,320 --> 00:21:06,520
Speaker 2: But you know, the defense is clear that it's good.

512
00:21:06,560 --> 00:21:08,640
Speaker 1: And then I keep going back to that coaching mismatch

513
00:21:08,680 --> 00:21:11,600
Speaker 1: that you know that McDermott, McDermott his staff I just

514
00:21:11,680 --> 00:21:14,719
Speaker 1: value so much more over Bill O'Brien and his staff.

515
00:21:15,680 --> 00:21:16,720
Speaker 2: And you mentioned teasers.

516
00:21:16,960 --> 00:21:18,560
Speaker 1: Well, last year when I was in Vegas for the

517
00:21:18,600 --> 00:21:22,120
Speaker 1: divisional round, there was two you know, with as I've

518
00:21:22,200 --> 00:21:24,240
Speaker 1: talked about it on our podcast for Wong teasers where

519
00:21:24,240 --> 00:21:26,359
Speaker 1: you can tease, you know, one and a half to

520
00:21:26,400 --> 00:21:28,359
Speaker 1: two and a half point dogs up over the seven

521
00:21:28,440 --> 00:21:30,080
Speaker 1: and and or seven and a half to eight and

522
00:21:30,080 --> 00:21:33,040
Speaker 1: a half point favorites down. And I went to six

523
00:21:33,160 --> 00:21:37,679
Speaker 1: books that did not let me be a teaser, a

524
00:21:37,720 --> 00:21:41,879
Speaker 1: long teaser, and the NFL playoffs, they just said, nope,

525
00:21:41,920 --> 00:21:44,800
Speaker 1: we are not taking we are not taking teasers today.

526
00:21:44,840 --> 00:21:47,320
Speaker 1: I said, what do you mean you're not taking teasers today?

527
00:21:46,840 --> 00:21:49,200
Speaker 3: What did I tell you? If you're listening to the show,

528
00:21:49,280 --> 00:21:51,320
Speaker 3: what does that tell you about those teasers?

529
00:21:51,520 --> 00:21:56,280
Speaker 2: Yeah? Yeah, you have you have an edge in a vacuum,

530
00:21:56,320 --> 00:21:57,359
Speaker 2: You have an edge over the book.

531
00:21:57,400 --> 00:22:00,040
Speaker 1: They hit about seventy five percent of the time, and

532
00:22:00,040 --> 00:22:01,480
Speaker 1: then you need them to hit about seventy two and

533
00:22:01,520 --> 00:22:03,200
Speaker 1: a half percent to break even.

534
00:22:03,119 --> 00:22:04,080
Speaker 2: At minus one ten.

535
00:22:04,200 --> 00:22:06,280
Speaker 1: Some a lot of places now go to minus one

536
00:22:06,320 --> 00:22:08,720
Speaker 1: twenty where it's about a breakkeeping proposition.

537
00:22:08,760 --> 00:22:11,040
Speaker 2: But yeah, but you guys are taking teasers this weekend.

538
00:22:11,280 --> 00:22:13,439
Speaker 3: We take teasers, but I'll tell you right now we

539
00:22:13,520 --> 00:22:16,400
Speaker 3: got big juice attached to them. And I'll be even

540
00:22:16,400 --> 00:22:18,560
Speaker 3: more frank. The reason why is because we lost to

541
00:22:18,640 --> 00:22:21,720
Speaker 3: people doing those teasers over the course of several years.

542
00:22:22,080 --> 00:22:23,720
Speaker 3: Those are I mean, I think those are good bets,

543
00:22:23,760 --> 00:22:26,000
Speaker 3: and there's three of them this week in New Orleans

544
00:22:26,080 --> 00:22:27,520
Speaker 3: right now is a seven and a half point favorite,

545
00:22:27,560 --> 00:22:29,080
Speaker 3: you can go down to one and a half, and

546
00:22:29,160 --> 00:22:31,000
Speaker 3: Philadelphia is a one and a half point dog. I

547
00:22:31,000 --> 00:22:33,159
Speaker 3: actually like Philadelphia to win that game, but I'd be

548
00:22:33,200 --> 00:22:35,240
Speaker 3: even more comfortable with a teaser getting them up to

549
00:22:35,240 --> 00:22:38,160
Speaker 3: plus seven and a half. So, yes, we do take

550
00:22:38,200 --> 00:22:39,680
Speaker 3: the bets, but we juice the hell out of you

551
00:22:39,760 --> 00:22:42,320
Speaker 3: for them because we are well aware that they are

552
00:22:42,440 --> 00:22:45,040
Speaker 3: good bets that are probably going to turn you value

553
00:22:45,080 --> 00:22:47,960
Speaker 3: long term. And if you have a book that lets

554
00:22:47,960 --> 00:22:49,880
Speaker 3: you do them at minus one ten I'm talking about

555
00:22:49,920 --> 00:22:52,479
Speaker 3: six pointers, I would certainly recommend that you do that.

556
00:22:52,800 --> 00:22:56,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, I've already done that one Sunday with New Orleans

557
00:22:56,359 --> 00:22:58,159
Speaker 1: and Philly over seven and a half at the New

558
00:22:58,240 --> 00:22:59,159
Speaker 1: Orleans under three.

559
00:22:59,320 --> 00:23:00,720
Speaker 2: So let's move on to Sunday.

560
00:23:01,440 --> 00:23:03,359
Speaker 1: Yeah, no, I mean, it's just I wish I had

561
00:23:03,480 --> 00:23:06,400
Speaker 1: also something on Saturday that I could tease the bills with,

562
00:23:06,520 --> 00:23:09,159
Speaker 1: but it's four and a half. For anyone listening, I

563
00:23:09,160 --> 00:23:11,360
Speaker 1: really wouldn't recommend that. I mean, you don't tease through this.

564
00:23:11,359 --> 00:23:15,440
Speaker 3: Year, very very different teasing through because if you tease

565
00:23:15,480 --> 00:23:17,520
Speaker 3: the Titans up, you're not going through that key number three.

566
00:23:17,560 --> 00:23:19,879
Speaker 3: It's it doesn't have the same value as teasing Philadelphia

567
00:23:19,960 --> 00:23:20,959
Speaker 3: up or teasing Buffalo up.

568
00:23:21,119 --> 00:23:23,479
Speaker 1: Yep, completely agree, all right, so let's just clearly talk

569
00:23:23,520 --> 00:23:26,080
Speaker 1: about those games. On Sunday, we have New Orleans eight

570
00:23:26,119 --> 00:23:28,439
Speaker 1: point favorite over under forty nine and a half. It

571
00:23:28,440 --> 00:23:31,040
Speaker 1: looks like some over money has hit the market all week,

572
00:23:31,080 --> 00:23:35,640
Speaker 1: and then Philadelphia this line at some random off shore

573
00:23:35,720 --> 00:23:40,040
Speaker 1: shops opened at a three point dog, and Seattle, I'm

574
00:23:40,040 --> 00:23:42,159
Speaker 1: talking about opening a three point dog that quickly moved

575
00:23:42,400 --> 00:23:44,680
Speaker 1: a lot of other players. Yeah, right around a pick

576
00:23:44,800 --> 00:23:48,200
Speaker 1: or minus one. Seattle's now minus one and a half.

577
00:23:48,359 --> 00:23:50,040
Speaker 1: I don't know if this is true, but the narrative

578
00:23:50,080 --> 00:23:52,119
Speaker 1: that I've heard on Twitter through other people, through the

579
00:23:52,119 --> 00:23:56,720
Speaker 1: grapevine is people are betting this Seattle game and betting

580
00:23:56,720 --> 00:23:58,679
Speaker 1: on the Seahawks like they already do the final score.

581
00:23:58,880 --> 00:24:00,159
Speaker 2: Is that true? And what are your thoughts on the

582
00:24:00,160 --> 00:24:01,240
Speaker 2: two games on Sunday?

583
00:24:02,560 --> 00:24:05,120
Speaker 3: Well, first of the Minnesota New Orleans game, We're gonna

584
00:24:05,119 --> 00:24:07,760
Speaker 3: need Minnesota pretty big in that game. Every parlay, every

585
00:24:07,800 --> 00:24:09,639
Speaker 3: teaser is gonna go to the Saints. We'll need the

586
00:24:09,640 --> 00:24:11,560
Speaker 3: game to go under two. We did have a guy

587
00:24:11,600 --> 00:24:14,480
Speaker 3: we respect. He bet thirty thousand on Minnesota plus eight

588
00:24:14,960 --> 00:24:16,680
Speaker 3: knocked us down to seven and a half. But I

589
00:24:16,680 --> 00:24:18,640
Speaker 3: wouldn't be surprised if that number drifted up a little

590
00:24:18,680 --> 00:24:20,720
Speaker 3: bit between now and Sunday because all the public players

591
00:24:20,760 --> 00:24:23,640
Speaker 3: are gonna bet the Saints. If that was the Lake game.

592
00:24:23,840 --> 00:24:27,000
Speaker 3: Talking about the one forty Pacific game, that I would

593
00:24:27,000 --> 00:24:29,520
Speaker 3: definitely expect the number to go closer to ten, because

594
00:24:29,560 --> 00:24:31,840
Speaker 3: every parlay from the whole weekend would go to New Orleans.

595
00:24:32,080 --> 00:24:34,240
Speaker 3: But because it's in that ten am slot, all the

596
00:24:34,280 --> 00:24:36,960
Speaker 3: parlays are gonna go to Seattle in the late game,

597
00:24:37,000 --> 00:24:38,920
Speaker 3: the same way they all went to the Bears last week.

598
00:24:38,960 --> 00:24:41,760
Speaker 3: On this weekend, the books are gonna need Philadelphia huge.

599
00:24:41,800 --> 00:24:43,960
Speaker 3: And you're absolutely right, whatever you heard on Twitter is true.

600
00:24:44,080 --> 00:24:47,000
Speaker 3: Everyone's betting Seattle like crazy. It's almost a ten to

601
00:24:47,040 --> 00:24:49,840
Speaker 3: one ticketcount here at the west Gate Book. And it

602
00:24:49,920 --> 00:24:51,520
Speaker 3: was just like this the first time they played. If

603
00:24:51,520 --> 00:24:54,320
Speaker 3: you remember that game, Seattle was a small dog. Everybody

604
00:24:54,400 --> 00:24:56,720
Speaker 3: bets Seattle like crazy. They went off favored in that game.

605
00:24:56,760 --> 00:25:00,080
Speaker 3: They won the game on the road in Philadelphia. The

606
00:25:00,080 --> 00:25:01,919
Speaker 3: main thing in this game for me, though, is the

607
00:25:01,920 --> 00:25:04,439
Speaker 3: injury report. Keeping an eye There's so many good players

608
00:25:04,440 --> 00:25:07,800
Speaker 3: on both teams that are questionable. Dwayne Brown's questionable for Seattle,

609
00:25:07,880 --> 00:25:10,720
Speaker 3: Zach Ertz is questionable for Philadelphia. You got to keep

610
00:25:10,720 --> 00:25:13,040
Speaker 3: an eye on the injury report here. But I think

611
00:25:13,080 --> 00:25:15,480
Speaker 3: Philadelphia finds a way to win this game. The only

612
00:25:15,520 --> 00:25:17,880
Speaker 3: thing that terrifies me is the late touchdown drive from

613
00:25:17,920 --> 00:25:20,199
Speaker 3: Russell Wilson. The man is just terrifying. If you have

614
00:25:20,240 --> 00:25:22,840
Speaker 3: money against him, you might be better off having a

615
00:25:22,880 --> 00:25:24,960
Speaker 3: teaser to the Eagles there. I think you'll feel a

616
00:25:24,960 --> 00:25:27,879
Speaker 3: little safer when Russell Wilson inevitably has the ball in

617
00:25:27,880 --> 00:25:29,480
Speaker 3: his hands in the fourth quarter with a chance to

618
00:25:29,520 --> 00:25:30,000
Speaker 3: win the game.

619
00:25:30,280 --> 00:25:32,679
Speaker 1: Yeah, especially against that secondary And you're right, I mean

620
00:25:32,720 --> 00:25:34,560
Speaker 1: I have a couple bets on this game already, and

621
00:25:34,600 --> 00:25:37,959
Speaker 1: it's Seattle, it's Philly teased to seven and a half.

622
00:25:38,480 --> 00:25:42,320
Speaker 1: And I also have Philly plus a half for small

623
00:25:42,320 --> 00:25:44,359
Speaker 1: in the first half, and I looked at it, I'm like,

624
00:25:44,400 --> 00:25:46,760
Speaker 1: you know what, these bets are just completely correlated with

625
00:25:46,800 --> 00:25:48,280
Speaker 1: my fear of Russell Wilson.

626
00:25:48,359 --> 00:25:50,680
Speaker 2: Late, I don't blame you.

627
00:25:50,720 --> 00:25:52,399
Speaker 3: How could you not be afraid of that guy? They

628
00:25:53,000 --> 00:25:55,760
Speaker 3: got completely robbed on Sunday night. I don't know what

629
00:25:55,800 --> 00:25:57,680
Speaker 3: the hell that was. Or the Seattle will be playing

630
00:25:57,680 --> 00:26:00,239
Speaker 3: Minnesota right now. We'll be talking about different matchups. But

631
00:26:00,720 --> 00:26:03,080
Speaker 3: if you're not afraid of Russell Wilson, you haven't been

632
00:26:03,080 --> 00:26:04,840
Speaker 3: paying much tension to the NFL this year.

633
00:26:05,440 --> 00:26:05,640
Speaker 2: Yep.

634
00:26:06,560 --> 00:26:11,120
Speaker 1: And then just very quickly here in NFL futures market,

635
00:26:11,400 --> 00:26:13,159
Speaker 1: what happens if the Ravens been at all? Is there

636
00:26:13,200 --> 00:26:15,640
Speaker 1: one team that you really don't want it to win,

637
00:26:15,720 --> 00:26:17,320
Speaker 1: don't want the winner. Is there one team where it

638
00:26:17,400 --> 00:26:18,640
Speaker 1: would be the ideal scenario?

639
00:26:19,520 --> 00:26:21,480
Speaker 3: You know, the Ravens are our best case scenario in

640
00:26:21,480 --> 00:26:24,720
Speaker 3: the whole pool. We went a tremendous number on Baltimore.

641
00:26:24,760 --> 00:26:26,560
Speaker 3: We do lose on them in the conference, but we've

642
00:26:26,600 --> 00:26:28,199
Speaker 3: win so much on them in the Super Bowl that

643
00:26:28,200 --> 00:26:30,240
Speaker 3: we'd be fine with seeing them get to the Super Bowl.

644
00:26:30,520 --> 00:26:32,040
Speaker 3: I also just think it'd be nice to have New

645
00:26:32,040 --> 00:26:34,080
Speaker 3: Blood in the Super Bowl. Baltimore or Kansas City would

646
00:26:34,080 --> 00:26:36,280
Speaker 3: be great to see. Yeah, the only team that we

647
00:26:36,320 --> 00:26:39,200
Speaker 3: really lose to right now, well we lose to Seattle,

648
00:26:39,200 --> 00:26:40,920
Speaker 3: but I don't think they really have any chance to win.

649
00:26:41,200 --> 00:26:44,040
Speaker 3: We also lose to New England, but overall we have

650
00:26:44,080 --> 00:26:46,000
Speaker 3: a We're in a really good position in the future book,

651
00:26:46,040 --> 00:26:49,560
Speaker 3: and I'd love to see New Orleans play either Baltimore

652
00:26:49,600 --> 00:26:51,639
Speaker 3: or Kansas City. I think it'd be a great right game,

653
00:26:52,000 --> 00:26:55,359
Speaker 3: a lot of high profile quarterbacks involved. That's kind of

654
00:26:55,400 --> 00:26:57,639
Speaker 3: the matchup we're looking for is New Orleans to come

655
00:26:57,680 --> 00:26:59,359
Speaker 3: out of the NFC and play the winner of what

656
00:26:59,440 --> 00:27:01,879
Speaker 3: should be a great AFC championship game between Kansasy and

657
00:27:01,920 --> 00:27:02,560
Speaker 3: the Ravens.

658
00:27:02,800 --> 00:27:03,600
Speaker 2: I'm surprised you don't.

659
00:27:03,640 --> 00:27:05,679
Speaker 1: You wouldn't lose even a little on Kansas City for

660
00:27:05,720 --> 00:27:08,040
Speaker 1: people that took them over the last month, with the

661
00:27:08,080 --> 00:27:10,840
Speaker 1: odds out there generally implying that they wouldn't have a

662
00:27:10,880 --> 00:27:14,360
Speaker 1: bye and then a by falling into their lap somehow,

663
00:27:14,480 --> 00:27:17,199
Speaker 1: you know what two three percent chance going into the

664
00:27:17,200 --> 00:27:17,800
Speaker 1: final seven.

665
00:27:19,000 --> 00:27:21,560
Speaker 3: What happened with us was they bet New England going

666
00:27:21,560 --> 00:27:23,840
Speaker 3: into last week. One guy bet fifteen thousand at eight

667
00:27:23,880 --> 00:27:26,040
Speaker 3: to one. Another guy bet ten thousand at seven to one.

668
00:27:26,440 --> 00:27:28,320
Speaker 3: Obviously those gentlemen were thinking they were going.

669
00:27:28,240 --> 00:27:28,880
Speaker 4: To have the bye.

670
00:27:29,440 --> 00:27:30,359
Speaker 2: Yeah, but it was more.

671
00:27:30,480 --> 00:27:32,480
Speaker 3: It was more people betting on the Patriots. We did

672
00:27:32,480 --> 00:27:34,640
Speaker 3: take one pretty big bet. We bet the guy bet

673
00:27:34,680 --> 00:27:37,679
Speaker 3: thirty thousand on green Bay at twelve to one. That

674
00:27:37,800 --> 00:27:40,639
Speaker 3: was a few days ago. We are a small loser

675
00:27:40,720 --> 00:27:43,240
Speaker 3: to green Bay in the pool. I don't think green

676
00:27:43,280 --> 00:27:45,080
Speaker 3: Bay is gonna get by New Orleans. But I've been

677
00:27:45,080 --> 00:27:47,080
Speaker 3: wrong about green Bay all year, so don't listen to me.

678
00:27:48,080 --> 00:27:50,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, if you're green Bay, I have a

679
00:27:50,840 --> 00:27:53,520
Speaker 1: green Bay. My only preseason future was green Bay eighteen

680
00:27:53,560 --> 00:27:56,640
Speaker 1: to one, and I think they stink. But look they

681
00:27:56,640 --> 00:28:00,840
Speaker 1: got a buye and I just want snow the Lizards.

682
00:28:01,960 --> 00:28:03,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, they should have been somehow.

683
00:28:03,440 --> 00:28:05,080
Speaker 3: He should have been the one seed. I mean really,

684
00:28:05,280 --> 00:28:07,200
Speaker 3: I thought they got kind of robbed there. I don't.

685
00:28:07,200 --> 00:28:09,359
Speaker 3: I don't think Greenbay's any good honestly, but if they

686
00:28:09,359 --> 00:28:12,320
Speaker 3: call past interference there, which they should have, green Bay

687
00:28:12,359 --> 00:28:14,879
Speaker 3: is probably the number one seed going into the postseason.

688
00:28:15,000 --> 00:28:15,840
Speaker 3: So what do I know.

689
00:28:16,240 --> 00:28:18,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, yeah, you still got Rogers and you

690
00:28:18,119 --> 00:28:20,960
Speaker 1: still have the potential for blizzards. Like if I want,

691
00:28:21,000 --> 00:28:23,399
Speaker 1: if I want the Packers and the Saints playing in

692
00:28:23,520 --> 00:28:26,480
Speaker 1: Lambeau against that Saints team, give me three feet of snow.

693
00:28:27,440 --> 00:28:28,760
Speaker 3: Well, no doubt, no doubts.

694
00:28:29,000 --> 00:28:31,800
Speaker 1: So that's really what I think I'm really banking on.

695
00:28:31,920 --> 00:28:34,480
Speaker 1: But thanks for joining us, John. I'll catch you next

696
00:28:34,520 --> 00:28:37,399
Speaker 1: weekend for the National Championship. We'll be in town, so

697
00:28:37,480 --> 00:28:40,000
Speaker 1: looking forward to catching up. But thanks for joining us

698
00:28:40,000 --> 00:28:40,480
Speaker 1: in Happy.

699
00:28:40,320 --> 00:28:42,400
Speaker 3: New Year, Happy New Year, and good luck this weekend.

700
00:28:43,040 --> 00:28:46,520
Speaker 1: All right, thanks again to John for joining us. Based

701
00:28:46,560 --> 00:28:49,520
Speaker 1: on you know what he said earlier. He doesn't envision

702
00:28:49,600 --> 00:28:51,640
Speaker 1: and you know, like us, he thinks that this line

703
00:28:51,720 --> 00:28:55,640
Speaker 1: is obviously inflated. He doesn't envision this line ever getting

704
00:28:55,920 --> 00:28:58,600
Speaker 1: below four, And I agree, I think it's going to

705
00:28:58,960 --> 00:29:03,240
Speaker 1: stick in the full to six range. Comedy updated thoughts

706
00:29:03,280 --> 00:29:05,840
Speaker 1: on where this line may go or is it pretty

707
00:29:05,880 --> 00:29:07,400
Speaker 1: dead here down at dead five?

708
00:29:07,520 --> 00:29:10,080
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think I will echo John and the you

709
00:29:10,120 --> 00:29:12,040
Speaker 4: know what the point spread is going to do, because

710
00:29:12,080 --> 00:29:13,760
Speaker 4: I mean, anytime it's going to hit six, you're going

711
00:29:13,840 --> 00:29:15,680
Speaker 4: to have your people that want to take Clemson. Anytime

712
00:29:15,720 --> 00:29:17,479
Speaker 4: you have four, you're gonna people that are gonna want

713
00:29:17,480 --> 00:29:19,720
Speaker 4: to take LSU, and so I don't expect any big

714
00:29:19,760 --> 00:29:22,160
Speaker 4: traction in the line. And you're right, there's gonna be

715
00:29:22,160 --> 00:29:24,680
Speaker 4: a lot of parlay liability on LSU depending on how

716
00:29:24,720 --> 00:29:27,320
Speaker 4: the NFL goes with the divisional so that you know

717
00:29:27,320 --> 00:29:29,200
Speaker 4: a lot of books are going to are probably going

718
00:29:29,280 --> 00:29:31,760
Speaker 4: to be you have the number as it correlates to

719
00:29:31,800 --> 00:29:34,080
Speaker 4: the number of parlays that they've got open as the

720
00:29:34,080 --> 00:29:36,680
Speaker 4: divisional rounds go in the NFL. So as far as

721
00:29:36,680 --> 00:29:38,640
Speaker 4: a deep dive analysis on this game, I mean, we

722
00:29:38,720 --> 00:29:41,240
Speaker 4: know that the number is inflated. Every math person in

723
00:29:41,280 --> 00:29:44,440
Speaker 4: the world makes this Clemson anywhere from you know, a

724
00:29:44,520 --> 00:29:46,800
Speaker 4: pick to plus three. I don't think I've seen any

725
00:29:46,840 --> 00:29:49,480
Speaker 4: math model out there, any projection system out there that

726
00:29:49,520 --> 00:29:51,560
Speaker 4: says that LSU should absolutely be minus three and.

727
00:29:51,560 --> 00:29:52,280
Speaker 2: A half or higher.

728
00:29:52,960 --> 00:29:57,880
Speaker 4: There is a trending power rating that SAGARN actually uses.

729
00:29:57,960 --> 00:30:00,760
Speaker 4: SAGARN has their own ratings that do FCS and FBS.

730
00:30:00,920 --> 00:30:03,960
Speaker 4: I know we'll get into the FCS Championship some time,

731
00:30:04,280 --> 00:30:07,040
Speaker 4: but you know, they do have a trending power rating

732
00:30:07,040 --> 00:30:09,040
Speaker 4: that they use, and they actually make it LSU minus

733
00:30:09,080 --> 00:30:11,080
Speaker 4: three and a half, and that's the highest I've ever

734
00:30:11,080 --> 00:30:14,280
Speaker 4: seen this number, So you know there's going to be

735
00:30:14,920 --> 00:30:18,800
Speaker 4: Remember let's let's define what value is here. There's going

736
00:30:18,840 --> 00:30:21,160
Speaker 4: to be value in Clemson because the number more than

737
00:30:21,280 --> 00:30:24,080
Speaker 4: likely if there's no parlay activity, which these national championships

738
00:30:24,120 --> 00:30:27,040
Speaker 4: always have, there's always futures involved. Each book is different.

739
00:30:27,080 --> 00:30:29,560
Speaker 4: They've got open futures on LSU, they got open futures

740
00:30:29,600 --> 00:30:32,160
Speaker 4: on Clemson. They've got parlay futures coming from the NFL.

741
00:30:32,280 --> 00:30:33,880
Speaker 4: So each book is going to be different. But as

742
00:30:33,880 --> 00:30:35,280
Speaker 4: far as the game itself and as far as the

743
00:30:35,320 --> 00:30:37,520
Speaker 4: number itself, it's going to be value on Clemson, especially

744
00:30:37,520 --> 00:30:39,960
Speaker 4: at the number of six. So you know, as far

745
00:30:40,040 --> 00:30:41,840
Speaker 4: as a deep dive into both sides of the ball,

746
00:30:41,880 --> 00:30:43,560
Speaker 4: we can we can tackle that the closer we get

747
00:30:43,600 --> 00:30:43,960
Speaker 4: to the game.

748
00:30:44,200 --> 00:30:46,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, well, I actually made it slightly above three, but

749
00:30:46,520 --> 00:30:49,240
Speaker 1: that's as I said on our last podcast, that's after

750
00:30:49,400 --> 00:30:52,000
Speaker 1: just bumps on bumps for no reason to LSU.

751
00:30:52,480 --> 00:30:54,960
Speaker 2: So I tried so I wouldn't have to fade them again.

752
00:30:55,040 --> 00:30:59,040
Speaker 1: But the line is still higher than putting artificial bumps

753
00:30:59,080 --> 00:31:02,000
Speaker 1: into the number on top of the bumps that already

754
00:31:02,000 --> 00:31:02,760
Speaker 1: put in, so.

755
00:31:02,760 --> 00:31:05,040
Speaker 2: I need a bump on top of the bump to

756
00:31:05,080 --> 00:31:06,080
Speaker 2: get to the number this is.

757
00:31:06,320 --> 00:31:08,120
Speaker 4: I mean, I yeah, I mean, I've got an investment

758
00:31:08,160 --> 00:31:10,080
Speaker 4: down on Clemson. It's not very big, and I've got

759
00:31:10,080 --> 00:31:13,280
Speaker 4: a future on Clemson, you know, and pay Okay, but uh,

760
00:31:13,520 --> 00:31:17,120
Speaker 4: you know, I I will say this. I have I

761
00:31:17,200 --> 00:31:22,720
Speaker 4: have combed some very advanced statistics through various places, and

762
00:31:22,960 --> 00:31:25,120
Speaker 4: there are some great things that I'm finding about Clemson

763
00:31:25,360 --> 00:31:29,280
Speaker 4: and there are equally great things that I'm finding about LSU. Specifically,

764
00:31:29,280 --> 00:31:31,480
Speaker 4: what I've been trying to figure out is if LSU's

765
00:31:31,520 --> 00:31:33,560
Speaker 4: defense over the last few weeks since the John Reice

766
00:31:33,560 --> 00:31:36,440
Speaker 4: Plumb League game against the Old miss is this defense

767
00:31:36,520 --> 00:31:39,120
Speaker 4: legit and everything that I everything that I'm reading, it

768
00:31:39,160 --> 00:31:41,680
Speaker 4: doesn't matter how you slice and dice every single minute

769
00:31:41,680 --> 00:31:43,280
Speaker 4: that defense has been on the field.

770
00:31:43,160 --> 00:31:43,840
Speaker 2: They're for real.

771
00:31:44,080 --> 00:31:46,040
Speaker 4: So it means that mean that they should be six

772
00:31:46,080 --> 00:31:48,560
Speaker 4: points higher than the reigning you know, national champions and

773
00:31:49,040 --> 00:31:51,640
Speaker 4: you know, a quarterback like Trevor Lawrence and a running

774
00:31:51,680 --> 00:31:53,440
Speaker 4: back like Travis Etm We're going to find out.

775
00:31:53,560 --> 00:31:55,320
Speaker 1: Yeah. I mean, the other the other part of this

776
00:31:55,440 --> 00:31:59,960
Speaker 1: that I have trouble quantifying is the Clemson you know, obvious,

777
00:32:00,280 --> 00:32:02,120
Speaker 1: all their priors are great, and then all of their

778
00:32:02,200 --> 00:32:04,680
Speaker 1: numbers this year are an elite but they didn't really

779
00:32:04,720 --> 00:32:06,880
Speaker 1: play anybody, and then you know they beat in Ohio,

780
00:32:06,880 --> 00:32:10,720
Speaker 1: a really good Ohio State team. My eye just said, look,

781
00:32:10,800 --> 00:32:14,080
Speaker 1: this defense isn't as elite as last year. That's only

782
00:32:14,120 --> 00:32:17,080
Speaker 1: one game, so like, how much can you take from it?

783
00:32:17,120 --> 00:32:20,440
Speaker 1: But Dobbins is getting caught from behind, dropping base maybe

784
00:32:20,480 --> 00:32:23,200
Speaker 1: two touchdowns, and everyone says, oh, it was the Clemson

785
00:32:23,240 --> 00:32:25,680
Speaker 1: red zone defense. No, I mean Dobbins dropped two passes,

786
00:32:25,680 --> 00:32:28,640
Speaker 1: one on a screen and one you know that got

787
00:32:28,640 --> 00:32:31,680
Speaker 1: overturned when he was wide open. I struggle with saying,

788
00:32:31,720 --> 00:32:34,560
Speaker 1: to myself, it didn't look as dominant, But I got

789
00:32:34,600 --> 00:32:36,600
Speaker 1: to remember how good this Ohio State team was and

790
00:32:36,680 --> 00:32:39,240
Speaker 1: that it's only one game. So that's something that I'm

791
00:32:39,240 --> 00:32:41,880
Speaker 1: struggling with with the Clemson defense because everything all year

792
00:32:41,960 --> 00:32:44,160
Speaker 1: looked like the best defense had it rated out that way,

793
00:32:44,160 --> 00:32:45,320
Speaker 1: but the opponents were.

794
00:32:45,800 --> 00:32:48,160
Speaker 4: I mean, I know, because the schedule didn't give us anything.

795
00:32:48,200 --> 00:32:50,239
Speaker 4: But what we do know is that Isaiah Simmons can

796
00:32:50,280 --> 00:32:53,320
Speaker 4: play on the line, in the linebackers and the secondary,

797
00:32:53,400 --> 00:32:57,520
Speaker 4: and he can adjust play to play a bubble screen buster.

798
00:32:58,160 --> 00:33:00,480
Speaker 4: The guy has been amazing for Breadventable and he's the

799
00:33:00,480 --> 00:33:03,040
Speaker 4: wild card on the on the Clemson defense, it's going

800
00:33:03,080 --> 00:33:04,640
Speaker 4: to be able to blow up anything that LSC is

801
00:33:04,680 --> 00:33:06,360
Speaker 4: trying to do. And and you know, on on the

802
00:33:06,360 --> 00:33:08,160
Speaker 4: flip side of the ball, LSU has two of the

803
00:33:08,160 --> 00:33:11,800
Speaker 4: best corners. Grant Delpit is completely healthy. How does Dave

804
00:33:11,840 --> 00:33:15,440
Speaker 4: a Randa attack what might be a Trevor Lawrence rush

805
00:33:15,480 --> 00:33:18,920
Speaker 4: attack again? Or was that entire game called against Ohio

806
00:33:18,960 --> 00:33:21,880
Speaker 4: State to get Randa to have one guy single out

807
00:33:21,920 --> 00:33:24,440
Speaker 4: and spy on Trevor Lawrence and that opens up one

808
00:33:24,480 --> 00:33:27,360
Speaker 4: on one matchups, you know, for Trevor Lawrence to hit

809
00:33:27,560 --> 00:33:29,960
Speaker 4: hopefully a healthy Higgins and a healthy Ross and a

810
00:33:30,000 --> 00:33:33,000
Speaker 4: healthy Rogers and one on one coverage. So it's just

811
00:33:33,080 --> 00:33:35,920
Speaker 4: going to be so fascinating. I mean, I could tell

812
00:33:35,920 --> 00:33:39,520
Speaker 4: you that these are the best coaches in college football.

813
00:33:39,640 --> 00:33:41,880
Speaker 4: And it's not halftime adjustments. I mean, we're sitting here

814
00:33:41,880 --> 00:33:45,000
Speaker 4: talking about how this Boston College it's only going to

815
00:33:45,040 --> 00:33:47,400
Speaker 4: be a ten minute halftime, and that kind of favors

816
00:33:47,400 --> 00:33:50,440
Speaker 4: Boston College's interim staff because then the other team can't make,

817
00:33:50,800 --> 00:33:53,280
Speaker 4: you know, coaching adjustments against it these guys for Clemson,

818
00:33:53,480 --> 00:33:57,360
Speaker 4: LSU can make adjustments from play to play and not

819
00:33:57,440 --> 00:33:59,520
Speaker 4: just drive the driver half to you know, after half.

820
00:33:59,560 --> 00:34:03,200
Speaker 4: I mean to play Venables, Brady Insumiger and an amazing

821
00:34:03,200 --> 00:34:04,080
Speaker 4: set of NFL talent.

822
00:34:04,120 --> 00:34:05,000
Speaker 2: It's gonna be on the field.

823
00:34:05,160 --> 00:34:08,239
Speaker 1: Yeah, I can't wait to watch the LSU offense versus

824
00:34:08,239 --> 00:34:10,600
Speaker 1: the Clemson defense. I mean this is in New Orleans,

825
00:34:10,640 --> 00:34:13,759
Speaker 1: which does I think a little bit benefit LSU. It's

826
00:34:13,800 --> 00:34:16,480
Speaker 1: not like a true home field, but there's definitely it's

827
00:34:16,520 --> 00:34:17,040
Speaker 1: gonna be loud.

828
00:34:17,120 --> 00:34:18,920
Speaker 4: I mean that's loud anyways for Saints games. So you

829
00:34:19,040 --> 00:34:21,440
Speaker 4: have to wonder if you know who's good, maybe go

830
00:34:21,520 --> 00:34:24,520
Speaker 4: back and do some research on silent counts or you

831
00:34:24,560 --> 00:34:27,160
Speaker 4: know who calling two plays at the line of scrimmage

832
00:34:27,160 --> 00:34:29,640
Speaker 4: and and maybe do some research on how Joe Brady

833
00:34:29,680 --> 00:34:31,160
Speaker 4: and Trevor Lawrence have handled that before.

834
00:34:31,560 --> 00:34:34,359
Speaker 1: Yeah, it should be an interesting game that we'll dive

835
00:34:34,440 --> 00:34:37,640
Speaker 1: into much more in detail. And by the way, people,

836
00:34:37,960 --> 00:34:40,560
Speaker 1: even if you lose a bet, if your favorite team

837
00:34:41,239 --> 00:34:44,080
Speaker 1: is you know, playing another team and you don't like

838
00:34:44,160 --> 00:34:47,520
Speaker 1: the other quarterback, don't threaten people online. I think you

839
00:34:47,600 --> 00:34:51,399
Speaker 1: have I see Travis Etn's mom is getting threat death

840
00:34:51,400 --> 00:34:55,160
Speaker 1: threats from LSU fans because he's from Louisiana. And then

841
00:34:55,320 --> 00:34:57,600
Speaker 1: you've had to choose Clemson LSU, and he chose Clemson,

842
00:34:57,800 --> 00:35:00,800
Speaker 1: and now his mother is getting death threats. Come on, anyway,

843
00:35:01,640 --> 00:35:06,920
Speaker 1: let's move on to the remaining bowl games. We have

844
00:35:07,320 --> 00:35:10,319
Speaker 1: three bowl games left, not counting the College Football Championship.

845
00:35:10,600 --> 00:35:14,960
Speaker 1: We'll start on Friday afternoon with Ohio and Nevada. It's

846
00:35:15,040 --> 00:35:17,640
Speaker 1: the last game, the second to last game. The two

847
00:35:17,680 --> 00:35:20,400
Speaker 1: of these games involved MAC teams, so I am not

848
00:35:20,520 --> 00:35:24,080
Speaker 1: that thrilled about them. But Ohio is an eight point favorite.

849
00:35:24,239 --> 00:35:27,680
Speaker 1: Opened up at six eight point favorite against Nevada. Over

850
00:35:27,760 --> 00:35:31,799
Speaker 1: under has risen up to fifty nine. Something of note here,

851
00:35:31,800 --> 00:35:34,279
Speaker 1: I mean Nevada was atrocious all year. This team they

852
00:35:34,280 --> 00:35:36,160
Speaker 1: were just bad. I mean they just had a bunch

853
00:35:36,160 --> 00:35:38,480
Speaker 1: of easy wins and they would get blown out by

854
00:35:38,880 --> 00:35:41,279
Speaker 1: any team with a pulse. And then there's a bunch

855
00:35:41,320 --> 00:35:43,839
Speaker 1: of suspensions on the defensive side of the ball as well.

856
00:35:43,880 --> 00:35:46,080
Speaker 1: To note, what do you see here with Ohio and Nevada.

857
00:35:46,200 --> 00:35:47,920
Speaker 4: Yeah, the number is almost correct. I mean we make

858
00:35:47,960 --> 00:35:50,520
Speaker 4: it nine. I think sp plus makes it ten, so

859
00:35:50,880 --> 00:35:52,400
Speaker 4: you know, the number is still just short. But it's

860
00:35:52,480 --> 00:35:53,880
Speaker 4: kind of sitting in a dead zone. So it's not

861
00:35:53,920 --> 00:35:55,680
Speaker 4: like there's a lot of value on the Ohio number

862
00:35:55,680 --> 00:35:57,160
Speaker 4: when it's sitting right there, but I do kind of

863
00:35:57,200 --> 00:36:00,560
Speaker 4: expect it to rise. The defensive suspensions come in every

864
00:36:00,600 --> 00:36:04,440
Speaker 4: single unit, So there's a defensive tackle, there's a linebacker,

865
00:36:04,480 --> 00:36:06,359
Speaker 4: there's a corner. They're all going to miss because there

866
00:36:06,440 --> 00:36:09,920
Speaker 4: was this I don't know, this brush up fight with UNLV.

867
00:36:10,960 --> 00:36:13,600
Speaker 4: Just terrible way to end the season for both programs,

868
00:36:14,000 --> 00:36:16,879
Speaker 4: and so that caused, you know, a number of suspensions

869
00:36:17,120 --> 00:36:18,960
Speaker 4: and a few players for Nevada are actually gonna have

870
00:36:18,960 --> 00:36:20,680
Speaker 4: to sit the first game of the season next year.

871
00:36:20,840 --> 00:36:23,320
Speaker 4: This is going to be Nathan Wurke quarterback for Ohio.

872
00:36:23,400 --> 00:36:25,280
Speaker 4: It's going to be his last game with Frank Soulich.

873
00:36:25,520 --> 00:36:29,000
Speaker 4: Ohio interesting enough, did not cover a single game at

874
00:36:29,000 --> 00:36:31,239
Speaker 4: home in Athens this year, so it could be a

875
00:36:31,280 --> 00:36:32,839
Speaker 4: good sign that they're hitting the road because they weren't

876
00:36:32,920 --> 00:36:34,680
Speaker 4: very good at home at least as far as covering

877
00:36:34,680 --> 00:36:37,680
Speaker 4: the number. And like we mentioned the UNLV brawl, two

878
00:36:37,719 --> 00:36:39,640
Speaker 4: of their top six tacklers are going to be missing.

879
00:36:40,640 --> 00:36:42,480
Speaker 4: Another one that's going to be missing was a key

880
00:36:42,520 --> 00:36:46,480
Speaker 4: defensive tackle that's important to covering the Nathan Worke rpo

881
00:36:46,520 --> 00:36:49,239
Speaker 4: that he's going to run there for Ohio, you know,

882
00:36:49,320 --> 00:36:51,759
Speaker 4: and then the other two big you know, defenders that

883
00:36:51,800 --> 00:36:54,440
Speaker 4: have been lost were a safety in a corner, so

884
00:36:54,680 --> 00:36:56,399
Speaker 4: you know Ork's going to be able to throw all day.

885
00:36:56,400 --> 00:37:00,000
Speaker 4: It's hard for me to not see Ohio having any

886
00:37:00,000 --> 00:37:03,640
Speaker 4: extremely high pace of scoring, especially considering their offense is

887
00:37:03,640 --> 00:37:06,720
Speaker 4: thirty third in the nation and finishing drives. Nevada's outside

888
00:37:06,760 --> 00:37:09,880
Speaker 4: the top one hundred defensively in finishing drive. So whether

889
00:37:09,960 --> 00:37:13,399
Speaker 4: you don't like Ohio in the whole, you know, dead

890
00:37:13,520 --> 00:37:15,520
Speaker 4: number of eight or seven and a half, they're gonna

891
00:37:15,520 --> 00:37:17,279
Speaker 4: put points up. I can't see how they don't put

892
00:37:17,320 --> 00:37:21,000
Speaker 4: points up. Nevada fire their defensive coordinators, so it's like

893
00:37:21,320 --> 00:37:23,759
Speaker 4: one of the most dumpster fire sides of the ball

894
00:37:23,800 --> 00:37:26,080
Speaker 4: of any team that's in a bowl that could possibly

895
00:37:26,120 --> 00:37:28,520
Speaker 4: be there right now. So that's where I kind of lean.

896
00:37:28,880 --> 00:37:31,080
Speaker 4: I'm not really sure, you know, how high scoring it's

897
00:37:31,120 --> 00:37:33,040
Speaker 4: going to be. I mean, Ohio should score, it will,

898
00:37:33,120 --> 00:37:35,279
Speaker 4: but these are slow paced offenses. Ohio is one hundred

899
00:37:35,280 --> 00:37:38,360
Speaker 4: and seven seconds per play and Nevada's eightieth and seconds

900
00:37:38,360 --> 00:37:40,840
Speaker 4: per play, so it's not like they're extremely fast offenses,

901
00:37:41,200 --> 00:37:43,160
Speaker 4: and Nevada is not very efficient once they get past

902
00:37:43,200 --> 00:37:46,040
Speaker 4: the forty anyways, So all Ohio or nothing for me

903
00:37:46,200 --> 00:37:47,439
Speaker 4: and maybe an Ohio team.

904
00:37:47,480 --> 00:37:50,320
Speaker 1: Total over fair enough, and let's move on to Saturday.

905
00:37:50,400 --> 00:37:53,439
Speaker 1: We have two lane a seven point favorite, the six

906
00:37:53,520 --> 00:37:56,400
Speaker 1: and six Green Wave. I have a number of close

907
00:37:56,440 --> 00:37:59,480
Speaker 1: losses on the air, taking on seven and five. Southern

908
00:37:59,600 --> 00:38:02,960
Speaker 1: Miss under is tick down the fifty six and a

909
00:38:03,000 --> 00:38:05,959
Speaker 1: half pretty much stayed right in that range here. This

910
00:38:06,000 --> 00:38:08,760
Speaker 1: is eleven thirty in the morning, I believe on Saturday

911
00:38:08,800 --> 00:38:14,000
Speaker 1: on ESPN in Fort Worth, Texas. This line's pretty much

912
00:38:14,040 --> 00:38:18,160
Speaker 1: just been sitting right on that touchdown number.

913
00:38:18,280 --> 00:38:19,160
Speaker 2: What do you see here?

914
00:38:19,480 --> 00:38:21,360
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's exactly we're actually network has it. We have

915
00:38:21,400 --> 00:38:23,600
Speaker 4: it an eight and fifty seven, and we've just had

916
00:38:23,640 --> 00:38:26,399
Speaker 4: no traction on this number whatsoever. So when we try

917
00:38:26,400 --> 00:38:27,759
Speaker 4: to look at something that we can bet on in

918
00:38:27,760 --> 00:38:29,880
Speaker 4: this game, this is an old school rivalry. These two

919
00:38:29,920 --> 00:38:31,680
Speaker 4: teams used to play each other every year. This is

920
00:38:31,719 --> 00:38:34,720
Speaker 4: the battle for the bill in Southern Miss On offense,

921
00:38:34,760 --> 00:38:38,240
Speaker 4: they're just they're all passed. They don't have any rushing

922
00:38:38,239 --> 00:38:40,239
Speaker 4: success to them whatsoever. They're one hundred and twenty six

923
00:38:40,320 --> 00:38:42,399
Speaker 4: and rushing success so you expect them to come out

924
00:38:42,400 --> 00:38:45,120
Speaker 4: with Jack a Ram passing. The problem is is he's

925
00:38:45,160 --> 00:38:47,399
Speaker 4: a little risky and he's not very accurate. He has

926
00:38:47,440 --> 00:38:50,960
Speaker 4: eighteen tds to fifteen ninety, not a very good ratio.

927
00:38:51,239 --> 00:38:53,640
Speaker 4: Two Lane sixty seventh in defensive havoc and they're just

928
00:38:53,680 --> 00:38:55,080
Speaker 4: fifty first and passes defense.

929
00:38:55,120 --> 00:38:56,440
Speaker 2: So really something.

930
00:38:56,239 --> 00:38:57,920
Speaker 4: Miss is going to go only as far as a

931
00:38:58,040 --> 00:39:00,480
Speaker 4: Ram can get them to throw the aty fifth and

932
00:39:00,480 --> 00:39:03,719
Speaker 4: success rate and their twenty fifth in explosiveness. That's kind

933
00:39:03,719 --> 00:39:05,920
Speaker 4: of an area that the two lane could struggle in

934
00:39:06,320 --> 00:39:09,000
Speaker 4: defensively their fifteenth in passing success rate. The Green Wave

935
00:39:09,080 --> 00:39:10,759
Speaker 4: are but there are one hundred and twenty six and

936
00:39:10,800 --> 00:39:14,719
Speaker 4: allowing exposive plays. So behind all those numbers it says

937
00:39:14,760 --> 00:39:17,719
Speaker 4: if Southern Myth is going to complete a pass, it

938
00:39:17,760 --> 00:39:20,600
Speaker 4: could turn into a very large game. Two lane's good

939
00:39:20,640 --> 00:39:22,759
Speaker 4: at stopping the pass, but when the ones that they

940
00:39:22,800 --> 00:39:25,360
Speaker 4: do allow of Southern Myths could result in a score, possibly,

941
00:39:25,440 --> 00:39:27,480
Speaker 4: you know Southern Miss is excellent and stopping the run.

942
00:39:27,520 --> 00:39:30,520
Speaker 4: They're thirty six in defensive rushing success rate, so justin

943
00:39:30,560 --> 00:39:33,399
Speaker 4: McMillan should be forced to throw the entire day, which

944
00:39:33,440 --> 00:39:36,319
Speaker 4: is not really the bread and butter of the two

945
00:39:36,400 --> 00:39:41,080
Speaker 4: lane offense. And these are two completely completely different pace

946
00:39:41,120 --> 00:39:44,200
Speaker 4: of play here, like just they're not the same whatsoever.

947
00:39:44,280 --> 00:39:47,200
Speaker 4: Southern Miss is outside the top one hundred and seconds

948
00:39:47,200 --> 00:39:50,080
Speaker 4: per play, two lane is thirty eighth and seconds per play.

949
00:39:51,400 --> 00:39:55,359
Speaker 4: The number is correct, the total is correct, so you know,

950
00:39:55,600 --> 00:39:57,279
Speaker 4: it could be a thing where I play alive and

951
00:39:57,320 --> 00:39:59,600
Speaker 4: try to get two side. You know, whoever dictates the

952
00:39:59,640 --> 00:40:01,200
Speaker 4: pace is probably the team that's going to win the

953
00:40:01,200 --> 00:40:03,160
Speaker 4: ball game. But I mean, even when it comes down

954
00:40:03,200 --> 00:40:06,080
Speaker 4: to finishing drives, I mean, some of the teams are

955
00:40:06,120 --> 00:40:08,480
Speaker 4: outside the top one hundred when Southern misses on offense

956
00:40:08,520 --> 00:40:11,120
Speaker 4: and two lanes on defense. So it's really a tough

957
00:40:11,120 --> 00:40:13,920
Speaker 4: one to handicap. These teams are extremely close. But the

958
00:40:14,000 --> 00:40:16,680
Speaker 4: number does dictate that the spreads should be seven or

959
00:40:16,719 --> 00:40:19,120
Speaker 4: seven and a half. So I'll look to play live.

960
00:40:19,400 --> 00:40:20,920
Speaker 4: I doubt there'll be anything pre game for me.

961
00:40:21,400 --> 00:40:24,200
Speaker 1: Yep, I completely agree with you there. And then let's

962
00:40:24,239 --> 00:40:28,919
Speaker 1: move on to Monday with it's not Monday afternoon. Why

963
00:40:28,960 --> 00:40:31,279
Speaker 1: why is this game not on Monday afternoon? It's Monday night,

964
00:40:31,400 --> 00:40:35,799
Speaker 1: seven thirty Eastern. We have our rage in Cajun's the

965
00:40:35,880 --> 00:40:39,400
Speaker 1: Louisiana Lafay yet ul la lafey whatever you want to

966
00:40:39,440 --> 00:40:43,320
Speaker 1: call them. As a fourteen point favorite against Miami of Ohio,

967
00:40:44,000 --> 00:40:47,520
Speaker 1: this over unders sitting at fifty four and a half.

968
00:40:47,800 --> 00:40:50,040
Speaker 1: You know, we know this Mina of Ohio team pretty

969
00:40:50,040 --> 00:40:53,920
Speaker 1: fortunately all year, their offense is dreadful. Special teams were

970
00:40:53,920 --> 00:40:55,759
Speaker 1: actually really good this year, won them a bunch of

971
00:40:55,800 --> 00:40:57,640
Speaker 1: matt games, which is something to keep in mind. But

972
00:40:57,760 --> 00:41:01,000
Speaker 1: Louisiana also has a pretty good special teams. Miam OOHAA

973
00:41:01,120 --> 00:41:04,000
Speaker 1: tries to rely on their defense to try and get

974
00:41:04,000 --> 00:41:05,799
Speaker 1: them through. It's tough for me to see them winning

975
00:41:05,840 --> 00:41:08,759
Speaker 1: this game, but the line looks about right these last

976
00:41:08,760 --> 00:41:11,480
Speaker 1: three games. This spread right around a key number and

977
00:41:11,560 --> 00:41:14,000
Speaker 1: looks right about right to me. Do you agree to

978
00:41:14,000 --> 00:41:14,719
Speaker 1: you see anything here?

979
00:41:14,880 --> 00:41:16,560
Speaker 4: The number is a little high for me. I mean

980
00:41:17,160 --> 00:41:19,920
Speaker 4: I think I make it eleven and SPPLUS makes at nineteen.

981
00:41:19,960 --> 00:41:21,759
Speaker 4: So there's a really wide gap about where we think

982
00:41:21,800 --> 00:41:23,600
Speaker 4: this number should be. And that could be just a

983
00:41:23,640 --> 00:41:25,800
Speaker 4: difference in how we value the MAC and a difference

984
00:41:25,800 --> 00:41:27,640
Speaker 4: and how we value the Sun Belt. You know, because

985
00:41:27,680 --> 00:41:30,480
Speaker 4: these are the two teams that conference champion for the

986
00:41:30,520 --> 00:41:33,359
Speaker 4: mac and the runner up for the Sun Belt here.

987
00:41:33,400 --> 00:41:36,680
Speaker 4: But in the box score now strength to schedule, you

988
00:41:36,719 --> 00:41:39,239
Speaker 4: know ULS seventy ninth in Mio Ohio is sixty eight,

989
00:41:39,320 --> 00:41:41,520
Speaker 4: So there really isn't a really big difference when you

990
00:41:41,560 --> 00:41:43,279
Speaker 4: look at the numbers up against each other in the

991
00:41:43,320 --> 00:41:46,279
Speaker 4: advanced stats, they had the same strength to schedule. So

992
00:41:46,360 --> 00:41:48,799
Speaker 4: you can trust some of the numbers that we're seeing here. Well,

993
00:41:48,840 --> 00:41:52,560
Speaker 4: you always have a Louisiana a UL Lafayette game. You

994
00:41:52,600 --> 00:41:54,480
Speaker 4: can trust the fact that they're going to be able

995
00:41:54,480 --> 00:41:57,200
Speaker 4: to run and pass successfully. Their fourth and rushing success

996
00:41:57,280 --> 00:42:00,880
Speaker 4: right eleventh and passing success. They are mendus on offense,

997
00:42:00,920 --> 00:42:03,680
Speaker 4: and they're really going to give Miami Ohio problems on

998
00:42:03,719 --> 00:42:05,440
Speaker 4: the ground. UL is going to be able to move

999
00:42:05,440 --> 00:42:07,160
Speaker 4: the chains all day. They're going to be able to

1000
00:42:07,160 --> 00:42:08,240
Speaker 4: have explosive runs.

1001
00:42:08,480 --> 00:42:09,120
Speaker 2: Miama Ohio.

1002
00:42:09,160 --> 00:42:11,719
Speaker 4: The Redacks have actually been really good against pass exposiveness,

1003
00:42:11,760 --> 00:42:14,680
Speaker 4: their top fifteen in the nation against that, so Louisiana

1004
00:42:14,719 --> 00:42:16,360
Speaker 4: is definitely going to be able to get down the field.

1005
00:42:16,440 --> 00:42:18,600
Speaker 4: I think the biggest difference in this game is that

1006
00:42:18,920 --> 00:42:22,520
Speaker 4: ULL is tenth in finishing drives in the nation, and

1007
00:42:22,560 --> 00:42:26,880
Speaker 4: the Miami Ohio defense is eighty second in defensive finishing drives,

1008
00:42:26,920 --> 00:42:29,000
Speaker 4: which tells me they're going to be able to The

1009
00:42:29,040 --> 00:42:31,000
Speaker 4: Cajuns are gonna be able to put up points whenever

1010
00:42:31,040 --> 00:42:33,560
Speaker 4: they want, you know, whenever they get past the forty

1011
00:42:33,640 --> 00:42:36,680
Speaker 4: yard line. It's a different story for the Miami Ohio offense.

1012
00:42:37,440 --> 00:42:41,080
Speaker 4: They are pretty terrible at getting points up on the board.

1013
00:42:41,160 --> 00:42:43,719
Speaker 4: They're one hundred and twelve offensively in finishing drives, and

1014
00:42:44,320 --> 00:42:47,120
Speaker 4: ULL is top twenty defensively in stopping that. I mean

1015
00:42:47,320 --> 00:42:50,120
Speaker 4: Ull can be torn up on the ground. That's one

1016
00:42:50,120 --> 00:42:51,920
Speaker 4: big area that app State has always been able to

1017
00:42:51,920 --> 00:42:54,800
Speaker 4: take advantage of the Cajuns is on the ground, because

1018
00:42:55,080 --> 00:42:57,640
Speaker 4: you know, Billion Napier's defense is one hundred and twenty

1019
00:42:57,640 --> 00:42:59,359
Speaker 4: sixth in the line yards, one hundred and twenty eighth

1020
00:42:59,360 --> 00:43:02,160
Speaker 4: and the stuff rate. But Miami Ohio doesn't do that.

1021
00:43:02,200 --> 00:43:04,719
Speaker 4: They're pretty terrible themselves. They're outside the top hundred and

1022
00:43:04,719 --> 00:43:07,719
Speaker 4: ten and all these advanced rushing categories. So I have

1023
00:43:07,760 --> 00:43:09,680
Speaker 4: a hard time seeing Miami get any points up on

1024
00:43:09,719 --> 00:43:12,440
Speaker 4: the board. I think Louisiana is going to be able

1025
00:43:12,440 --> 00:43:13,960
Speaker 4: to convert every time that they get down there. I

1026
00:43:14,000 --> 00:43:16,040
Speaker 4: don't think that I would problem moving the ball whatsoever.

1027
00:43:16,719 --> 00:43:19,200
Speaker 4: So for me, it's Miami or nothing, and might take

1028
00:43:19,239 --> 00:43:21,040
Speaker 4: it before it gets up to fourteen and a half.

1029
00:43:21,200 --> 00:43:25,040
Speaker 1: Fair enough, and that will cover all of the bowl games.

1030
00:43:25,080 --> 00:43:26,600
Speaker 1: But we do, and like I said, we're gonna have

1031
00:43:26,640 --> 00:43:30,759
Speaker 1: a separate podcast indoor live show for the National Championship

1032
00:43:30,840 --> 00:43:33,640
Speaker 1: going through every possible angle on that game.

1033
00:43:33,680 --> 00:43:36,080
Speaker 2: Will also hit a lot of props. You know.

1034
00:43:36,120 --> 00:43:38,719
Speaker 1: The two times a year I really bet props so

1035
00:43:38,840 --> 00:43:42,879
Speaker 1: I don't get cut off are College Football Championship and

1036
00:43:43,080 --> 00:43:45,439
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl, so we'll get into some of those

1037
00:43:45,520 --> 00:43:48,520
Speaker 1: as well. But we do also have another National Championship

1038
00:43:48,640 --> 00:43:54,520
Speaker 1: on January eleventh, I believe, next Saturday, between James Madison

1039
00:43:54,560 --> 00:43:56,600
Speaker 1: and North Dakota State, and some might be surprised to

1040
00:43:56,600 --> 00:44:00,600
Speaker 1: see the North Dakota State, who's dominated for four thirty

1041
00:44:00,640 --> 00:44:03,200
Speaker 1: five straight games, dominated the FCS level for as long as

1042
00:44:03,239 --> 00:44:05,759
Speaker 1: actually an underdog here, which I actually agree with. You know,

1043
00:44:05,920 --> 00:44:08,359
Speaker 1: I do have some numbers on scs, but I don't

1044
00:44:08,360 --> 00:44:10,000
Speaker 1: spend a lot of time when I don't put that

1045
00:44:10,080 --> 00:44:12,480
Speaker 1: much merit into them, you know, during the regular season.

1046
00:44:12,520 --> 00:44:15,799
Speaker 1: These are low limit bets. But my eye test and

1047
00:44:15,840 --> 00:44:17,680
Speaker 1: my numbers and everything I see, I think JAMU is

1048
00:44:17,680 --> 00:44:21,200
Speaker 1: the better team. This is a well rounded team. They're

1049
00:44:21,400 --> 00:44:23,719
Speaker 1: x on on every single phase of the game. I

1050
00:44:23,760 --> 00:44:24,960
Speaker 1: think JAMU is winning this game.

1051
00:44:25,000 --> 00:44:26,319
Speaker 2: There are they. I think they opened as a one

1052
00:44:26,320 --> 00:44:28,040
Speaker 2: point favorite or one point dog. They are a two

1053
00:44:28,080 --> 00:44:31,080
Speaker 2: point favorite now at the shops that do have them open.

1054
00:44:31,320 --> 00:44:32,759
Speaker 2: I like them anything under a field goal. I think

1055
00:44:32,840 --> 00:44:35,120
Speaker 2: Jamius a national champion. I absolutely agree.

1056
00:44:35,160 --> 00:44:36,960
Speaker 4: I'm going to be on JMU in this game. JAMU

1057
00:44:37,040 --> 00:44:39,640
Speaker 4: returned everybody this season. They've shown it all year. They've

1058
00:44:39,640 --> 00:44:42,080
Speaker 4: they've won when they've had to. I think the Northern

1059
00:44:42,120 --> 00:44:44,040
Speaker 4: Iowa game you really kind of throw out. There was

1060
00:44:44,080 --> 00:44:47,120
Speaker 4: some really bad weather in Northern Iowa. You know, they

1061
00:44:47,160 --> 00:44:49,440
Speaker 4: didn't really have any kind of offense put up any

1062
00:44:49,480 --> 00:44:51,799
Speaker 4: points whatsoever. So I think jam you really just kind

1063
00:44:51,800 --> 00:44:53,239
Speaker 4: of sat on the ball and was looking to get

1064
00:44:53,280 --> 00:44:55,560
Speaker 4: out and play the next week. You know, this is

1065
00:44:55,600 --> 00:44:57,359
Speaker 4: only the second time that these two teams have met

1066
00:44:57,400 --> 00:45:01,000
Speaker 4: in the final, so that you know, I completely agree

1067
00:45:01,040 --> 00:45:03,360
Speaker 4: with you that James Madison is the roster that's loaded.

1068
00:45:03,400 --> 00:45:05,840
Speaker 4: They have a ton of experience. This may be the

1069
00:45:05,920 --> 00:45:08,719
Speaker 4: last time that North Dakota State does not win the

1070
00:45:08,800 --> 00:45:11,319
Speaker 4: FCS championship for quite a while. They only had like

1071
00:45:11,360 --> 00:45:13,799
Speaker 4: seven returning starters. They're going to you know, this is

1072
00:45:13,800 --> 00:45:17,160
Speaker 4: the brand new coach and so I think from here

1073
00:45:17,200 --> 00:45:20,800
Speaker 4: on out, after this game, they're probably gonna win a

1074
00:45:20,840 --> 00:45:22,920
Speaker 4: lot of consecutive years. But you know, I think the

1075
00:45:22,960 --> 00:45:26,040
Speaker 4: biggest X factor in this game is a JMU hired

1076
00:45:26,120 --> 00:45:29,239
Speaker 4: Main's defensive coordinator. Maine was had one of the best

1077
00:45:29,239 --> 00:45:31,360
Speaker 4: defenses in the nation in twenty eighteen and that was

1078
00:45:31,360 --> 00:45:33,400
Speaker 4: just the biggest addition for the Dukes in the offseason.

1079
00:45:33,480 --> 00:45:36,080
Speaker 4: So I think there's going to be a game plan there.

1080
00:45:36,320 --> 00:45:38,680
Speaker 4: And he's had success against the DYESU before at least

1081
00:45:38,880 --> 00:45:41,319
Speaker 4: at least you know, limiting them and what they've been

1082
00:45:41,360 --> 00:45:42,840
Speaker 4: in the versions what they've been in the past. So

1083
00:45:43,080 --> 00:45:46,160
Speaker 4: I think the biggest thing for James Madison is their

1084
00:45:46,160 --> 00:45:48,640
Speaker 4: defensive coordinator in the fact they have more experienced roster,

1085
00:45:49,320 --> 00:45:50,680
Speaker 4: and that's going to be your national champion.

1086
00:45:50,960 --> 00:45:55,400
Speaker 1: I completely agree the Dukes of James Madison down in Harrisonburg, Virginia.

1087
00:45:56,200 --> 00:45:58,360
Speaker 1: I think that they win it all. So thanks for

1088
00:45:58,440 --> 00:46:01,560
Speaker 1: joining me, Colin, Thanks everyone for listening. Thanks again to

1089
00:46:01,760 --> 00:46:06,279
Speaker 1: John Murray podcast listeners, all of our loyal listeners out there.

1090
00:46:06,320 --> 00:46:08,279
Speaker 1: I do some prizes to give away, announce them on

1091
00:46:08,280 --> 00:46:11,160
Speaker 1: the Final College Football Show. We'll also then be transitioning

1092
00:46:11,200 --> 00:46:14,719
Speaker 1: into some college basketball. I cannot wait for that. More

1093
00:46:14,760 --> 00:46:18,160
Speaker 1: details to come on that front shortly, but thanks again, Colin,

1094
00:46:18,200 --> 00:46:22,399
Speaker 1: Thanks everyone for listening. You know, subscribe on subscribe, tell

1095
00:46:22,400 --> 00:46:24,239
Speaker 1: a friend, telling enemy, you know the drill.

1096
00:46:24,560 --> 00:46:27,080
Speaker 2: We'll catch you all later. Cheers, peace out.

1097
00:46:28,080 --> 00:46:35,359
Speaker 4: It's the most summer full time, just the most all

1098
00:46:35,520 --> 00:46:37,839
Speaker 4: the most time.

1099
00:46:50,680 --> 00:46:53,439
Speaker 2: If you don't bet on a bowl, the bowl even

1100
00:46:53,520 --> 00:46:53,880
Speaker 2: exist