Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, along
Speaker 1: with my co host of Bonnie Quinn. Every business day
Speaker 1: we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts,
Speaker 1: along with essential market moving news. Kind of Bloomberg Markets
Speaker 1: Podcast on Apple podcast or wherever you listen to podcasts,
Speaker 1: and on Bloomberg dot com. We have some breaking vaccine news.
Speaker 1: The Astro Oxford vaccine efficacy has been confirmed now in
Speaker 1: peer reviewed data. Apparently the Astro Oxford vaccine prevents the
Speaker 1: worst COVID symptoms in this particular study. It's effective, but
Speaker 1: it does leave questions in older ages. This is all
Speaker 1: according to a peer review study at ten hospitalization cases
Speaker 1: seen in the trial. All occurred among those given a placebo.
Speaker 1: Let's bring in somebody who knows a little bit more
Speaker 1: about the background to this particular vaccine and has been
Speaker 1: looking at the results and is looking at these headlines
Speaker 1: as they come out. Now. Michelle Court has Health science
Speaker 1: and medical technology reporter for Bloomberg. So Michelle, this is good,
Speaker 1: but rossively speaking, is it as good as the other
Speaker 1: vaccine news we've been hearing? You know, Vanni is a
Speaker 1: great question, and it actually is not appearing to be
Speaker 1: as effective as the Visor and Maderna trials. That being said,
Speaker 1: there was a little bit of a hiccup with this trial.
Speaker 1: In fact, there were there were a couple which is
Speaker 1: really to be expected given the pace of development here.
Speaker 1: They originally were only going to be using one dose
Speaker 1: of the vaccine. Then they realized it would be more
Speaker 1: effective if they did too, so they added that second
Speaker 1: dose in later. And of course there was an issue
Speaker 1: where some of the patients or some of the volunteers
Speaker 1: in the trial got actually half of the dose in
Speaker 1: that first injection than they were expected to get, and
Speaker 1: that unexpectedly turned out to be much more effective vaccination
Speaker 1: efficacy rate with that smaller first dose with only a
Speaker 1: you know, six efficacy race in the people who got
Speaker 1: both full doses. So that's unexpected. They're going to have
Speaker 1: to be more research here. So Michelle, kind of have
Speaker 1: we got anywhere clarity on that, uh, you know, that
Speaker 1: half dose issue that we learned about a couple of
Speaker 1: weeks ago that seemed to surprise a lot of people
Speaker 1: in the community, right, it is inexplicable. I mean, we
Speaker 1: do know that the people who got that half does
Speaker 1: were actually a younger group of patients, and so they
Speaker 1: are less likely to get severe disease, they're less likely
Speaker 1: to become infected. So there could be some explanation that
Speaker 1: happening there, but indeed we don't exactly know what's going
Speaker 1: on here. The company has said that they do plan
Speaker 1: to do another trial to look at this specific effect.
Speaker 1: That should not take as long to do because you're
Speaker 1: just looking at how the body responds to the vaccine,
Speaker 1: so we should be able to get through that pretty quickly.
Speaker 1: But even when you're looking at the higher efficuity rates,
Speaker 1: it's not quite reaching than levels that we're seeing with
Speaker 1: sisor in the journal. It does appear that less is
Speaker 1: more in this case, but that may not be the
Speaker 1: full story. What does Astra do next? I mean, is
Speaker 1: this good enough data to release the vaccine into the
Speaker 1: wild as Fiser has already done, or do they have
Speaker 1: to do more well. They have said that they're going
Speaker 1: to be doing more as well, and of course the
Speaker 1: fact is is that we're not going to have enough
Speaker 1: vaccine to protect the entire world for some time to come.
Speaker 1: So when you're looking at an epicacy rate with this
Speaker 1: lower first dose, I mean that is still extraordinary. It
Speaker 1: is absolutely unbelievable that they were able to get this effect.
Speaker 1: This trial was done in some very high risk areas.
Speaker 1: A lot of these patients were in Brazil, which is
Speaker 1: having a massive outbreak, and the idea that you can
Speaker 1: be getting this vaccine to people across the world who
Speaker 1: would otherwise have no no protection against the virus is
Speaker 1: really breath taking. Is you can't and you can't overestimate
Speaker 1: how important it is. It is really important to be
Speaker 1: getting all of these vaccines. Yeah, So Michelle, it seems
Speaker 1: like again, you know, we were started this process when
Speaker 1: we started talking about vaccines and we were kind of
Speaker 1: told that if you get a fifty your efficacy rate, uh,
Speaker 1: that's good. And obviously now we're getting much much higher rates.
Speaker 1: So it seems to me that while the astro Zenka
Speaker 1: perhaps is not on par with some of its competitors
Speaker 1: or peers, it's still very good. Is that the expectation
Speaker 1: that this is still a good uh number. It is
Speaker 1: a good uh, it's good science, it's a good the vaccine,
Speaker 1: and that it will be effective in the marketplace. Absolutely
Speaker 1: it is. It's an astonishing vaccine. We're even seeing you know,
Speaker 1: some some data coming out of this trial that we
Speaker 1: haven't seen as much with the other trials. For example,
Speaker 1: we know that the astro vaccine is preventing asymptomatic cases.
Speaker 1: So for people who didn't show any signs or symptoms
Speaker 1: of the disease but might still be infected, this vaccine
Speaker 1: is actually protecting against that. That's very important to know
Speaker 1: that there's not some latent level of vaccine circulating among
Speaker 1: the people who got this vaccine. And you have to
Speaker 1: remember the numbers are astonishing in this low dose group
Speaker 1: of people. There were seven cases out of over a
Speaker 1: thousand people who were treated with the vaccine, and that's
Speaker 1: just amazing to think that you can get that kind
Speaker 1: of efficacy, even if it's not, you know, in it.
Speaker 1: In comparison, there was one in the Fiser trial. But still,
Speaker 1: and we're talking about seven people. One people, it's a
Speaker 1: handful of people. It's remarkable, no matter which way you
Speaker 1: look at Yeah, that's amazing. Also, the fact that you
Speaker 1: can prevent it, you know, in people who might otherwise
Speaker 1: be asymptomatic, that's really important because it's the people who
Speaker 1: don't have it that are that that you don't know,
Speaker 1: have a that are dangerous. I mean, if somebody is
Speaker 1: coughing in front of you, you're obviously not going to,
Speaker 1: you know, go near them. But if there's somebody looking
Speaker 1: completely healthy who may have the virus, you wouldn't know
Speaker 1: that necessarily. So how is this different to the m
Speaker 1: r N A platform. How are Oxford and Astra approaching
Speaker 1: this differently to say Fiser and the others. Right, Well,
Speaker 1: there are different technologies. The m RNA. Uh, the RNA
Speaker 1: vaccines are brand new. There are no vaccines like this
Speaker 1: out there in the world. This will be the first
Speaker 1: vaccine using this technology ever developed. It is again, I mean,
Speaker 1: it keeps staying remarkable, but it's just like, how do
Speaker 1: you do that. It's a vaccine that we've never even
Speaker 1: tried before, and they're like, well, let's try it, and
Speaker 1: not only let's try it, but in less than ten months,
Speaker 1: we're going to start from zero and actually get it
Speaker 1: into people's arms. Um. The way that vaccine works is
Speaker 1: it actually delivers a little bit of the genetic seapoint,
Speaker 1: so yoursels are producing of the like protein showing your
Speaker 1: immune system what they should be going after. The after
Speaker 1: vaccine is a little bit different. It actually developed it
Speaker 1: delivers the virus itself to inactivated version of it into
Speaker 1: the cells themselves, and so then they are producing that
Speaker 1: protein and so they know what to go after. It's
Speaker 1: a different approach the same idea in terms of exposing
Speaker 1: the immune system to the virus so that it will
Speaker 1: know what to look at. The after vaccine will be
Speaker 1: easier to deliver. It doesn't require this super cold gain
Speaker 1: deliver a system that the Fiser and Maderna vaccines do need.
Speaker 1: So there are different different approaches here. Each one has
Speaker 1: different benefits and risks. You know, if you are a
Speaker 1: country that is very hot that doesn't have great consistent electricity,
Speaker 1: you're probably not going to want the Visor and Maderna
Speaker 1: vaccine anyway, you might not have the technology to deliver that.
Speaker 1: So having the ASTRA version would be helpful for these areas.
Speaker 1: And Michelle, what do we know about the timing of
Speaker 1: getting approval for this vaccine across the world. We're seeing
Speaker 1: it almost daily, including today with the FDA and and
Speaker 1: the Fiser news. What do we know about the ASTRA timeline. Well,
Speaker 1: it's interesting because ASTRA was on hold longer in the
Speaker 1: US than it was in other places, specifically in Europe
Speaker 1: that is very cautious when it comes to reviewing all
Speaker 1: of these vaccines, making sure that they're dotting every ion
Speaker 1: cross in every two So when it looks like for
Speaker 1: the US, ASTRA is going to be a wild delayed
Speaker 1: here is probably going to take a you know, a
Speaker 1: couple of months at least to get this additional trial
Speaker 1: underway and to figure out exactly where we're going. Certainly
Speaker 1: there are other countries where we will most likely see
Speaker 1: AFTRA going much more quickly and getting their vaccine onto
Speaker 1: the market in other areas more quickly. That could happen
Speaker 1: within the next month or two. Michelle, this idea that
Speaker 1: was out that the Trump administration didn't put in a
Speaker 1: big enough order with Fiser, how is that being received? Well.
Speaker 1: The Trump administration is saying that they have ordered enough
Speaker 1: vaccine to cover the entire US population. Anybody who's interested
Speaker 1: in getting vaccinated should be able to have access to
Speaker 1: that by the end of the summer. What their approach was,
Speaker 1: they were ordering a hundred million doses from each of
Speaker 1: the different vaccine companies so that they would be broadening
Speaker 1: out their exposure level. So if one doesn't work, then
Speaker 1: they haven't already purchased an awful lot of that and
Speaker 1: and not enough of something else, so they didn't broadly,
Speaker 1: you know, order six hundred million doses across various vaccines.
Speaker 1: Of course, now we know that there's one or two
Speaker 1: that are highly effective, you want to get all of
Speaker 1: that as much as you possibly can. And as you
Speaker 1: point out, they have already sold that vaccine to other places,
Speaker 1: so it's going to be yet until the summer before
Speaker 1: they can start delivering more of those doses to the
Speaker 1: US government. We'll have to see if we if we're
Speaker 1: going to need those doses or not. At this point,
Speaker 1: we're still getting results from the other vaccine manufacturers, and
Speaker 1: there could be additional benefits. Maybe you only need one
Speaker 1: shot from some of these vaccines. Those side effects they're
Speaker 1: very mild, but they do occur, and they occur in
Speaker 1: more than half of people in some cases. So there
Speaker 1: are other vaccines that are being developed still that might
Speaker 1: have less of those sort of issues, or maybe they're
Speaker 1: more effective than older people. So there's still details to
Speaker 1: be teased out here. It does look like, you know,
Speaker 1: a little bit of a setback that the US isn't
Speaker 1: going to get as much of this first sisor vaccine
Speaker 1: as they want, but ultimately it's going to be hard
Speaker 1: to get it into everybody, and so we have to
Speaker 1: see how it plays out. Michelle, thank you so much
Speaker 1: for joining us. We really appreciate your reporting there. Michelle Cortez,
Speaker 1: Health science and medical technology reporter for Bloomberg News. Let's
Speaker 1: move to Tesla. Paul, you mentioned it earlier on speaking
Speaker 1: with Dave Wilson. It's up at six ninety five now,
Speaker 1: and you know, it just continues to move on up.
Speaker 1: It's going to sell shares as the proceeds of up
Speaker 1: to five billion dollars. That just doesn't seem to be
Speaker 1: any stopping the investors in this company. Let's bring in
Speaker 1: Don Eves of web Bush, analyst on Tesla. So Don
Speaker 1: talk to us about this share price isn't warranted? Should
Speaker 1: we throw another five billion dollars at this company? Look,
Speaker 1: it's a great question. I mean, we are books is
Speaker 1: a thousand dollars and we continue to view this right
Speaker 1: now as just a transformational market in terms of ev demand.
Speaker 1: And if you look at evening market right now, Houselow's
Speaker 1: World and everyone else, Pam Rent and I think that's
Speaker 1: when that's what they're looking at they're looking at what
Speaker 1: this market is going to be the next three to
Speaker 1: four years. Obviously stock to continue to devout, but in
Speaker 1: terms of playing the E V space when you look
Speaker 1: out and I think that right now is why this
Speaker 1: stock continues to move higher. They're just given the supply demand.
Speaker 1: I'm sure you d please, so Dan, give us a
Speaker 1: sense here of use of proceeds. Here is just simply
Speaker 1: let's shore up the balance sheet, raised capital when we can,
Speaker 1: not necessarily when we need it. But that's exactly a pole.
Speaker 1: I mean, this is a twelve billion in countering in
Speaker 1: terms of what they have raised. Go back a year ago,
Speaker 1: that was the biggest Bara thesis in terms of shoring
Speaker 1: up the balance sheet. They were not profitable. Now you've
Speaker 1: got profitability. They're hitting when the iron is hot in
Speaker 1: terms of raising capital, and it really throws that bare
Speaker 1: thesis out the window. And naturally the key when you
Speaker 1: go forward in terms of the tests of story. Now
Speaker 1: you don't have any baluncari issues. So in until he
Speaker 1: spends it, I mean, he seems to have an unlimited
Speaker 1: ability to spend the money that he gets in so
Speaker 1: how for how long will there be no balancy to
Speaker 1: issues even with capital deployment in Berwin as well as
Speaker 1: in Austin. I mean this really shures him up for
Speaker 1: the next few years in terms of those capital issues. Now, investors,
Speaker 1: you and is what's the growth opportunity going forward? And
Speaker 1: right now if you look at ev especially in China,
Speaker 1: you know, test has really seen an inflection of them
Speaker 1: and profitable. That speaks of the S and P five
Speaker 1: hundred inclusion, which is different from a year ago. Hey, Dan,
Speaker 1: give us a censor. Let's take a step back here.
Speaker 1: It just feels like we're starting to hear more and
Speaker 1: more out of the traditional automakers in terms of maybe
Speaker 1: some product introductions, some ev products in particular, How do
Speaker 1: you think the traditional auto manufacturers over the next five
Speaker 1: years are going to move on e V And how
Speaker 1: do you think that to what extent is at a
Speaker 1: risk to Tesla? Well, I think if you look at
Speaker 1: GM spending twenty billion the next five years on EVY,
Speaker 1: and I think it speaks to what's happening, is this
Speaker 1: is really gonna be Today it's three overall automotive sales worldwide.
Speaker 1: I think that goes at ten percent by two thou
Speaker 1: I think traditional automakers of you and this, you're gonna
Speaker 1: have tax incentives. Of course, you have it in Europe.
Speaker 1: I think with the Biden administration doubling down tax incentives
Speaker 1: in the US, and ultimately from a multiple perspective, remember,
Speaker 1: Tesla doesn't get treated as an automotive company. It's a
Speaker 1: technology disruptive technology means and I think automotives and the boards.
Speaker 1: They also recognize that. More and more success on evy,
Speaker 1: you can start to see names like GM Forward get
Speaker 1: rerated on that success. A couple of questions done you
Speaker 1: don't mind. One is you've ben underperformer on Nicolas. You
Speaker 1: obviously feel like that's a whole different type of story.
Speaker 1: And the similarities that we see between the Nicolas story
Speaker 1: and the Tesla story really maybe we shouldn't be seeing them.
Speaker 1: So I want to ask you about that. I also
Speaker 1: want to ask you if elon Muska is spread too
Speaker 1: thin and white people have stopped complaining about that. They
Speaker 1: used to complain about that when it came to Dr
Speaker 1: Dorsey all the time. Yeah. In terms of Nicol, I mean,
Speaker 1: our cautious stands has been just some of the company's
Speaker 1: specific issues going on, you know, especially with GM and
Speaker 1: others I do think that they will start to clear
Speaker 1: over the next three to six months. But that's why
Speaker 1: we've been more cautious on Nicola, even though they still
Speaker 1: have great prototype and opportunity. I think, look, it's not
Speaker 1: a campaign every company with the same brush. And I
Speaker 1: think in terms of e V, you know, going to
Speaker 1: to the Musk question, I mean, he's kind of had
Speaker 1: that red tape. He's been able to do Superman like things,
Speaker 1: not just with Tessa, but of course with SpaceX, and
Speaker 1: I think that's not as much of a concern for
Speaker 1: investors just given what you've seen, more maturity, more profitability.
Speaker 1: They've scaled across US the globe and must continue to
Speaker 1: kind of navigate, as well as a strong bene that
Speaker 1: they've started to develop over ex three months. So you know,
Speaker 1: it's interesting down as we think about the test of story,
Speaker 1: it's always just what's the next catalyst? What's the next catalyst?
Speaker 1: You know, um, is it to take a look at
Speaker 1: the test of story? Is that new products? Is that
Speaker 1: manufacturing numbers? What investors really focusing on in terms of
Speaker 1: metrics these days? Yeah, metrics right now, leaves are focused
Speaker 1: on China. I'm not think China could be worth a
Speaker 1: hundred hours per share. That's the focus looking at what
Speaker 1: we see. We've always seen strength in terms of this
Speaker 1: quarter going into next year. You know, can they get
Speaker 1: the two hundred fifty thousand units potentially in China from
Speaker 1: one fifty first year out, That's gonna be the key.
Speaker 1: And then it's the drum roll to the cyber truck.
Speaker 1: I mean, that's gonna be the next, you know, really
Speaker 1: potential game changer model. And you're seeing that pickup truck market.
Speaker 1: It's not just test, it's for GM now obviously Rivian.
Speaker 1: You know, that's a whole another opportunity in terms of
Speaker 1: easy and it speaks to what you're seeing in these
Speaker 1: stocks not just in the US, but even in China
Speaker 1: and Neo and others. Just you know, really in the
Speaker 1: early days of this market breaking out, what's your your
Speaker 1: favorite company or your most ferry company. I suppose in
Speaker 1: your coverage universe you cover a lot of companies that
Speaker 1: are relevant to the current period, including docu sign and
Speaker 1: companies like that. Yeah, with doctor Sign has been our
Speaker 1: favorite work from home name along with z Scale. I
Speaker 1: think you've got to play cloud and cyber securities core themes,
Speaker 1: and there are favorite large cap continues to be Apple,
Speaker 1: I think going into a supercycle, demand looks very strong
Speaker 1: going into next year, and that continues to be our
Speaker 1: favorite large company. And along with Microsoft to play the cloud,
Speaker 1: and those are the keys cloud, cyber security and these
Speaker 1: large tech names. We still think tex Stox a year
Speaker 1: from now or thirty percent higher. Dan Apples had a
Speaker 1: bunch of news out today, some new products and headphones,
Speaker 1: some chips. What's the takeaway from what you've heard from
Speaker 1: Apple over the last twenty four hours. Yeah, it's just
Speaker 1: further solidifying not just the supercycle in terms of iPhone,
Speaker 1: but the broader products cycle that's happened across Max, across
Speaker 1: air pods. I mean, we think air pods this year
Speaker 1: ninety million units sold, that's up from sixty million a
Speaker 1: year ago. That's gonna be five percent of South. So
Speaker 1: when you're starting to seek not just on services, which
Speaker 1: is a big part of the re rating, but Apple
Speaker 1: right now is in the biggest product cycle, not just
Speaker 1: an iPhone, but if you could cross the board billion,
Speaker 1: it's history, and I think that speaks to why this
Speaker 1: stock has a lot more fuel on the engine. You know,
Speaker 1: right now we see hundred fifty price target. I think
Speaker 1: potentially bull Case could start to get you towards two hundred. Dan.
Speaker 1: Thanks as always, we like to just kind of go
Speaker 1: across the board tech with you, and you're always able
Speaker 1: to give us some great insights. Dan i'ves Managing director
Speaker 1: Equity Research web Bush Securities giving his thoughts on Tesla,
Speaker 1: Apple and some of the stay at home stocks. Dan
Speaker 1: I was a big, big ball on technology. He's been
Speaker 1: absolutely on top of these names, and he's been absolutely
Speaker 1: right writing this technology ballmarket that we've seen really since
Speaker 1: uh the end of the financial crisis isn't really come
Speaker 1: into play really just over the last twelve months as well,
Speaker 1: So we appreciate dance thoughts. Let's bring in Daniel Master,
Speaker 1: who is chairman of coin Shares Group at one point
Speaker 1: eight billion dollar platform and as you can imagine, how's
Speaker 1: a little bit to do with cryptocurrency. So Danny, thank
Speaker 1: you for joining. Very happy to have you chat with us.
Speaker 1: I'm very interested in coin shares and how it inhabits
Speaker 1: the ecosystem that is crypto and cryptocurrencies and platforms. Can
Speaker 1: you explain a little bit about it to us? Yeah, um,
Speaker 1: coin shares, we make it easy for institutions and other
Speaker 1: investors to own bitcoin. Um. We see this demand reflected
Speaker 1: in our a U M the figures which have been
Speaker 1: rising as you just mentioned. UM. The second thing we've
Speaker 1: do as we provide liquidity. We've done about eight billion
Speaker 1: dollars in cryptocurrency trading volume this year, which is up
Speaker 1: about four times on last. And we're helping to build
Speaker 1: and shape the infrastructure of the cryptocurrency ecosystem with other
Speaker 1: global banks like Namura creating products, investing in innovative companies,
Speaker 1: and building this new financial system. So, Danny, give us
Speaker 1: a sense of kind of what you're seeing just in
Speaker 1: the marketplace as to the adoption of just cryptocurrencies in general.
Speaker 1: We hear a lot about fintech, a lot about cryptocurrencies,
Speaker 1: but give me some sense of the applications you're seeing
Speaker 1: out there in the marketplace. Well, that's one of the
Speaker 1: most fascinating aspects of my job day to day. I
Speaker 1: think we've think back to in the last peak cycle
Speaker 1: of crypto prices, one of the criticisms, which I think
Speaker 1: was valid, was that not much of the infrastructure had
Speaker 1: been built, not much of the software and new applications
Speaker 1: had been developed. But now We're seeing some fantastic companies,
Speaker 1: companies like unite Swap, companies like Compound Finance, d y
Speaker 1: p X, Leverage and many other names who are delivering
Speaker 1: essentially banking services. They're borrowing, lending, hypoblication, trading, custody and
Speaker 1: derivatives all on the blockchain. So where do you fit
Speaker 1: into that, Danny, I mean coin shares. You're not a
Speaker 1: You're not a currency, right, You're a platform. Yeah, I
Speaker 1: mean we we we issue eight securities that list on
Speaker 1: nasdaimexans dot com. This makes it easy to buy and
Speaker 1: own cryptocountcy exposure through your normal bank of broker um.
Speaker 1: That's a big part of our business. We are investors
Speaker 1: in early stage equity for companies in the ecosystem that
Speaker 1: are building exchanges, data companies, wallets, lock chains. We have
Speaker 1: produced a gold back to Swiss gold back to stable
Speaker 1: coin which is issued across Europe. And we're also put
Speaker 1: forward a very interesting indexation strategy called the coin Shares
Speaker 1: Gold and Cryptocurrency Index, which pairs gold and a basket
Speaker 1: of cryptocurrency in a risk managed way for institutional investors.
Speaker 1: So we do a number of things well, Daniel, just
Speaker 1: on my blueber terminal. Here I kicked in xpt U
Speaker 1: s D the bitcoin ticker and what a chart that is.
Speaker 1: Give us your thoughts on bitcoin. The mood is electric.
Speaker 1: At the momentum, we've seen a transformation due to COVID.
Speaker 1: Bitcoin was created as a reaction to the twenty oh
Speaker 1: a quantitative easy program. Obviously with a situation we've all
Speaker 1: been facing in the last nine ten months, this quantitative
Speaker 1: easing h end has only magnified probably three or four folds.
Speaker 1: So at the moment the markets driven by the narrative
Speaker 1: for inflation resistance investments, it's driven by digitization. Bitcoin is
Speaker 1: a store of digital value which people want. And interestingly,
Speaker 1: investors are becoming less spooked by the characteristic volatility of bitcoin,
Speaker 1: which has been dropping over the last few years. And
Speaker 1: while other investments we know the drama in the oil
Speaker 1: market earlier this year, other investments are becoming more volatile,
Speaker 1: so that volatility profile is becoming a bit more palatable. Danny,
Speaker 1: is it still a land grab? So, I know, you know,
Speaker 1: for the platforms in particular, it was a bit of
Speaker 1: a land grab for a long time. Is it still
Speaker 1: the case who is emerging the winner when it comes
Speaker 1: to when it came to sort of taking the bets
Speaker 1: on the infrastructure of it all. You say, you do
Speaker 1: many things. You obviously placed bets in a lot of
Speaker 1: different calces, and now that central links are starting to
Speaker 1: talk about it, I imagine it's becoming a little bit
Speaker 1: more mainstream. But where where are the places where people want? Yeah,
Speaker 1: that's a great question. Um, I'll even wind the clock
Speaker 1: forward a little bit. I think we are contemplating a
Speaker 1: new environment, maybe two to four years forward, where central
Speaker 1: bank digital currencies are the norm, and there are huge
Speaker 1: advantages for central banks for issuing such digital currencies. Um.
Speaker 1: Now when we see that, we're going to be asking
Speaker 1: the question who's going to perform those banking services in
Speaker 1: the intermediate layer, the borrowing lending as I mentioned before,
Speaker 1: And those are interesting companies that I think are winning
Speaker 1: great mindshare and great market cap at the moment. But
Speaker 1: perhaps the most interesting land grab opportunity is for the
Speaker 1: end points for those digital wallets, these sort of Amazon
Speaker 1: dot com a digital assets. So when your gold is digital,
Speaker 1: your stocks are digital, your bonds of digital. Whereas though,
Speaker 1: where are those digital assets going to be held? And
Speaker 1: it's that wallet infrastructure that is the most interesting land grabs.
Speaker 1: So you've seen Facebook and Libra and Calibra trying to
Speaker 1: take take the advantage in that space. You've got the
Speaker 1: big exchanges like coin based and Finance and maybe bitfin x,
Speaker 1: who are also quite strong in the wallet infrastructure. You've
Speaker 1: got native blockchain infrastructure companies like blockchain dot Com one
Speaker 1: of our partners, fantastic company, sixty million wallets already. And
Speaker 1: then you have newcomers like Samsung's who are putting hardware
Speaker 1: security devices in phones that can then act like digital wallets.
Speaker 1: So it could be a phone provider. And we've yet
Speaker 1: to see what other companies like Amazon, like Google may
Speaker 1: do in reaction to the moves that some of their
Speaker 1: competitors are making. Hey Danny, just real quick twenty seconds.
Speaker 1: Do you need the big big banks, the JP Morgans
Speaker 1: in the world to come into this market? I think
Speaker 1: that this intermediate layer of banking services that are now
Speaker 1: emerging on Shane. You know, these are big proof of
Speaker 1: concept companies, but they're growing, you know, two billion dollar
Speaker 1: status very quickly. Um. It seems to me that a
Speaker 1: lot of the traditional banks, the Morgan's Chases and so on,
Speaker 1: are quite far behind everybody's got an initiative, but they
Speaker 1: seem to be stalling and they seem to be quite
Speaker 1: far behind the rest of the pack. Yeah, certainly it
Speaker 1: seems to be the case. Danny Masters, thanks so much
Speaker 1: for joining us year. We always appreciate getting your thoughts
Speaker 1: on all things crypto. Danny Masters, chairman coin Shares a
Speaker 1: group based in London, with some thoughts on the crypto market,
Speaker 1: and uh, it's a fast growing market. But you know,
Speaker 1: one of the questions is do you need the validation
Speaker 1: of some of these large global banks to really kind
Speaker 1: of propel that market forward or can they be driven
Speaker 1: simply by the technologies. Well, as we all think about
Speaker 1: how to best manage our day to day activities amid
Speaker 1: the pandemic, one of the areas that's really taken a
Speaker 1: hit has been mass transportation. People just don't feel comfortable
Speaker 1: getting on subways and busses and so on. But a
Speaker 1: new report from n YU suggest that they met that
Speaker 1: may not be as big an issue as people may
Speaker 1: be thinking. Professor Mitchell Ross, I'm sorry, Mitchell Moss, Director
Speaker 1: of the Root and Center for Transportation Policy and Management,
Speaker 1: also the Henry Hart Rice Professor of Urban Policy, and
Speaker 1: Planning at n y U joins US Professor Moss, thanks
Speaker 1: so much for joining us here. When I saw this report,
Speaker 1: it really piqued my interest because as someone like most
Speaker 1: New Yorkers, we arrived the subway multiple times every day,
Speaker 1: and the assumption was that was just a breeding ground
Speaker 1: for all types of viruses, including COVID. What did your
Speaker 1: research tell you? So the study we have done shows
Speaker 1: that influenza debts, which is not the same as coronavirus,
Speaker 1: over a ten year period, have no relationship to mass
Speaker 1: transit ridership, and we believe since the spread of the
Speaker 1: virus has some similarities. This is a very important study
Speaker 1: because it confirms what has been reached in other areas
Speaker 1: of science, which is that it's sustained social interaction, which
Speaker 1: is the area of highest risk for the spread of
Speaker 1: this coronavirus. So, when you say influenza deaths, what about
Speaker 1: influenza hospitalizations or just contracting influenza? Were you able to
Speaker 1: get data on that? Well, we relied on death because
Speaker 1: there's one thing it's very high to do is to
Speaker 1: hide a body and the diagnosis. We didn't really go
Speaker 1: for the kind of number of diagnosis of influenza, which
Speaker 1: as you know, can be quite common, especially among older people,
Speaker 1: but influenza death is a very specific category. I think
Speaker 1: the key part which we want to highlight here is
Speaker 1: that the subway in New York especially, but also in
Speaker 1: Hong Kong and in Paris and in certain cases soul
Speaker 1: in Tokyo has been manageable. In other words, people are
Speaker 1: wearing masks in some places, they're cleaning the subway cars
Speaker 1: multiple times. In New York, the air it's filtered more
Speaker 1: often you know, in a subway car that it is
Speaker 1: in most office buildings. So we believe, and it's very
Speaker 1: important here, that the subway, where most people don't talk
Speaker 1: to each other, they don't look at each other, they
Speaker 1: can't hear each other because the train wheels are so loud,
Speaker 1: they're focusing on their phones or their iPads, actually produces
Speaker 1: very atomistic behavior. People stick to themselves, and so the
Speaker 1: actual subway ride is not the source we believe of
Speaker 1: the virus compared to other settings. And how do we
Speaker 1: know this, Well, look in at the state of New York.
Speaker 1: Buffalo has an infection rate three times higher than the
Speaker 1: city of New York. Buffalo is not a major subway city.
Speaker 1: They have a bus system. Los Angeles and southern California,
Speaker 1: which is having a vast surge, as you know of cases,
Speaker 1: is an automobile city. In fact, people cannot figure out
Speaker 1: how l A could have so many cases, given how
Speaker 1: low density some of the living is and how out
Speaker 1: doors it is, and so the virus spreads when people
Speaker 1: are together with each other for sustained periods of time,
Speaker 1: especially indoors. The subway tends to be a managed ride,
Speaker 1: tends to have very little interaction, and the air itself
Speaker 1: there it's filtered so often that it tends to present
Speaker 1: less of a risk than in many cases. I would
Speaker 1: like going to the Oval Office. I mean, we have
Speaker 1: a chart in the media and the number of people
Speaker 1: who have been with the President who have contracted the virus.
Speaker 1: We think the subway car is safer than in the
Speaker 1: Oval Office. Yeah, but I wouldn't have wanted to ride
Speaker 1: in a subway car with the President at that time either. Well.
Speaker 1: I think that what we've seen is that the initial
Speaker 1: pandemic was so concentrated in New York. The people said
Speaker 1: it must be due to mass transit, And now we
Speaker 1: see if you look at a map of the US.
Speaker 1: You know, you know, there are states in the Upper
Speaker 1: Midwest where they wouldn't know a subway car from a
Speaker 1: limousine because in fact, you know, they're really driving trucks
Speaker 1: and the factors in South Dakota and North Dakota and
Speaker 1: some of those states have had serious outbreaks from a
Speaker 1: motorcycle rally. So what we would argue is that our
Speaker 1: research shows that mass transit by itself is not really
Speaker 1: tied to the spread of virus. Now, over time, we're
Speaker 1: going to learn more about the coronavirus. But wait, professor,
Speaker 1: can I just can I just clarify? Are you basing
Speaker 1: that on the fact that the people who died from
Speaker 1: influenza across the country didn't increase in areas for the
Speaker 1: renomas transit? Is that? Is that? No? I think, well,
Speaker 1: there's a great question. I appreciate. Remember this is a
Speaker 1: study of collective death, so it's no one individual case.
Speaker 1: But we haven't looked at where there were you know,
Speaker 1: influenza deaths and where there were mass transit systems, and
Speaker 1: this is over a hundred cities that there's no relationship
Speaker 1: to between mass transit use and the death from influenza.
Speaker 1: So we really can't talk about anyone individual. We can
Speaker 1: say that the ridership of mass transit does not connect
Speaker 1: in any form to the youth to the death by influenza, right,
Speaker 1: because it's people's immune system and it's how they react,
Speaker 1: and it's how influenza influences one person versus another person.
Speaker 1: Wouldn't that be the same for COVID? Well, I think
Speaker 1: this is a great question for which you know, our
Speaker 1: knowledge of COVID is one year old. You know, last spring,
Speaker 1: everybody though it with surfaces. Now we're finding out it's
Speaker 1: much more air, so I think you know, and every
Speaker 1: human being, I think it's your point out is affected
Speaker 1: by the COVID very differently. If they ask any of
Speaker 1: the emergency room doctors, they will be the first to
Speaker 1: tell you that patients experience the virus and their different
Speaker 1: parts of their systems. Sometimes it's breathing, sometimes it's hard,
Speaker 1: you know, it's very It affects people so differently that
Speaker 1: I'm not sure we can make a judgment and stuff.
Speaker 1: You know, how actually people are going to be affected
Speaker 1: by any one particular a bout of the virus because
Speaker 1: their own composition, remember their age, their underlying conditions affect
Speaker 1: how it affects them. So, professor, just the next thirty seconds, Um,
Speaker 1: have you discussed this with the city and what's the
Speaker 1: as mt A had any response to the study. Well,
Speaker 1: the m t A has taken a very aggressive approach
Speaker 1: to having masks being required, and the ridership shows wearing
Speaker 1: the I think the mt is very familiar with the
Speaker 1: study because they have actually been very aggressive not only
Speaker 1: enforcing the mass requirement but in sanitizing. That's why the
Speaker 1: stations are closed at night and the cars are cleaned,
Speaker 1: and so they're doing what they can do. Now. They've
Speaker 1: had a lot of loss of death of some of
Speaker 1: them people who work in the transit union, because they
Speaker 1: have been in vulnerable situations where they're interacting with people.
Speaker 1: But I think what's amazing is that the m t
Speaker 1: A has recognized this is why they've aggressively spend a
Speaker 1: lot of money and the continuity including stations and the
Speaker 1: cars the mask requirement that has been the best example
Speaker 1: of their success. The the amount of use of the
Speaker 1: mask is greater than that on the sidewalks of New
Speaker 1: York City. Yeah, it's fascinating. We have to thank you
Speaker 1: for us or I hope you come back. I would
Speaker 1: love to continue to chat with you as this progressive professor.
Speaker 1: Mitchell Mass, Director of the n y U Rooten Center
Speaker 1: for Transportation and Policy Management. Thanks for listening to the
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe and listen to interviews
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Speaker 1: I'm Bonnie Quinn. I'm on Twitter at Bonnie Quinn, and
Speaker 1: I'm Paul Sweeney. I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney. Before
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