Speaker 1: Now from our nation's capital. This is Bloomberg Sound On.
Speaker 1: We're gonna be focused on our own military readiness in
Speaker 1: the Indo Pacific because our national security interests are so highs.
Speaker 1: You have a betty important commission to our company. It
Speaker 1: is the Ukrainians that are making the final decisions when
Speaker 1: it comes to operations. Floomberg Sound On, Politics, Policy and
Speaker 1: Perspective from DC's top names. This is an extreme threat
Speaker 1: to our democracy, to our freedom, to our right. This
Speaker 1: is going to be a peek into the closing arguments.
Speaker 1: I'm curious how he'll weave then what has actually been succession?
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Sound On with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio. The
Speaker 1: more games begin in Russia. Welcome to the fastest hour
Speaker 1: in politics, as Moscow teams up now with China and
Speaker 1: India for major military exercises the last next week in
Speaker 1: Russia's Far East. We'll discuss what this means for the U. S.
Speaker 1: China relationship with John kurve Be of the White House
Speaker 1: National Security Council. Just today, after Taiwan shoots down a
Speaker 1: Chinese drone, Analysis from our panel, Bloomberg Politics contributor, Republican
Speaker 1: strategist Rick Davis along with Democratic strategist Joel Pain. This
Speaker 1: hour later, we'll look at the job at hand for
Speaker 1: President Biden tonight as he prepares to address the nation
Speaker 1: in prime time. Political analyst Lincoln Mitchell joins US from
Speaker 1: Columbia University. First, it was China's war games around Taiwan.
Speaker 1: Now it's Russia teaming with China and India for war
Speaker 1: games that include fifty thousand troops, more than a hundred
Speaker 1: forty aircraft in sixty warships in Russia's Far East in
Speaker 1: the Sea of Japan. This starts today and these exercises
Speaker 1: have been held before, but they take on new meaning
Speaker 1: with the war in Ukraine, with China's outrage over Nancy
Speaker 1: Pelosi's visit to Taiwan and the deteriorating relationship there. I
Speaker 1: talked about this today with retired Admiral John Kirby, spokesman
Speaker 1: for the Y House National Security Council, started by asking
Speaker 1: him how the US was interpreting this display of force.
Speaker 1: Nations have to decide for themselves how they're going to
Speaker 1: look after military readiness. But we've been very clear now
Speaker 1: is not the time to be treating Russia in any
Speaker 1: kind of normal way, and certainly not in the way
Speaker 1: that that they could glean improve military capabilities from that interaction,
Speaker 1: such as an exercise like this. Uh, we were mindful
Speaker 1: of the exercise. Obviously, we'll watch it as close as
Speaker 1: as close as we can, But we're gonna be focused
Speaker 1: on our own military readiness in the Indo Pacific because
Speaker 1: our national security interests are so tied to so many
Speaker 1: other allies and partners in the region, Partners who are
Speaker 1: worried about China's increasing aggressive and course of behavior, Partners
Speaker 1: who are worried about what Russia is doing in Ukraine.
Speaker 1: So we're gonna stay We're gonna stay focused on our
Speaker 1: own military readios. Knowing that Iran is now providing drones
Speaker 1: to Russia for use in Ukraine. What do you make
Speaker 1: of this idea of China, Russia and Iran as the
Speaker 1: new Axis. I don't think we're describing it in that way. Look,
Speaker 1: Russia realizes that it's been further isolated and ostracized as
Speaker 1: a result of what it's doing in Ukraine by so
Speaker 1: much of the international community. So they're turning to those
Speaker 1: few countries that they can turn to for assistance, turning
Speaker 1: to Iran, is indicative not just of how isolated they
Speaker 1: really have become, but how much Iran is isolating itself
Speaker 1: further from the international community by being willing to provide
Speaker 1: these kinds of capabilities to Russia. And look, we're concerned
Speaker 1: about those capabilities. Of course, it's just further evidence that
Speaker 1: Putin wants to kill more Ukrainians, which is why we're
Speaker 1: gonna stay focused on making sure that we're arming the
Speaker 1: Ukrainians with the kind of capabilities they need to beat
Speaker 1: back Russian offensives inside their own country. India is also
Speaker 1: taking part in these exercises. As we mentioned, Admiral, it
Speaker 1: seems to be still sort of straddling the line on
Speaker 1: Russia's war with Ukraine. They have put on hold plans
Speaker 1: to buy some weapons and cooperate militarily with Russia, but
Speaker 1: now we have them taking part in these exercises. As
Speaker 1: the US expressed disappointments with India's leaders for their taking part,
Speaker 1: I certainly wouldn't talk about diplomatic discussions here. Every nation
Speaker 1: has to make their own decisions. That India has got
Speaker 1: to make its own decisions about its bilateral relations with
Speaker 1: other countries, and certainly countries that it's going to exercise
Speaker 1: militarily with I would just say what I said before.
Speaker 1: We don't believe that this is a time for business
Speaker 1: as usual Russia. We certainly don't believe it's a time
Speaker 1: for any to anybody to be helping them with their
Speaker 1: military capabilities. Well, I know you've sent that message to
Speaker 1: China repeatedly here, and we understand trade between China and
Speaker 1: Russia has increased in value by about thirty percent this year.
Speaker 1: At what point will the US start considering secondary sanctions,
Speaker 1: Admiral Well, I don't want to get ahead of any
Speaker 1: decisions by the President one way or the other. Uh. Look,
Speaker 1: China has a choice to make uh and UH. They
Speaker 1: can either choose to join the rest of the world
Speaker 1: UH in condemning what Russia is doing in Ukraine UH
Speaker 1: and not helping him continue to kill innocent Ukrainians going forward,
Speaker 1: or they can just uh, you know, to to assist
Speaker 1: that effort. We we hope that they'll they'll make better
Speaker 1: decisions going forward. In the meantime, We're gonna stay focused
Speaker 1: on making sure Ukraine can succeed on the battlefield and
Speaker 1: that Mr Putin continues to suffer severe costs and consequences
Speaker 1: for what he's done, and he has his economy is
Speaker 1: in tatters. He is not able to, for instance, regenerate
Speaker 1: precision guide munitions on the battlefield the way that he
Speaker 1: wanted to, and now he's forced to turn to Iran
Speaker 1: for unmanned aerial systems. So it's having an effect. This
Speaker 1: pressure that's being placed internationally on Mr Putin, it's having
Speaker 1: an effect on him. And we're going to continue to
Speaker 1: to to raise those costs for for Mr Putin. John
Speaker 1: Kirby talking with us from the North lawn of the
Speaker 1: White House earlier today. We talked about a number of
Speaker 1: issues tied to national security, and we're gonna walk through
Speaker 1: them over the next few minutes here with our panel
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Politics contribute to. Rick Davis is with us along
Speaker 1: with Democratic strategist Joel Paine, former director of African American
Speaker 1: Advertising for Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign. Rick, I'm gonna start
Speaker 1: with you here as we have what appears to be
Speaker 1: kind of a new level with China, Russia, India, fifty
Speaker 1: thousand troops. The numbers here, this is big stuff. A
Speaker 1: hundred and forty aircraft, sixty warships. How should the US
Speaker 1: be viewing this. It's supposed to last a week, and
Speaker 1: is it not a different level than the last time
Speaker 1: they did this? Well, I think that everything now is
Speaker 1: a heightened you know, sensible awareness, right, I mean. And
Speaker 1: and there have been a lot more activity on war
Speaker 1: games by the Russians and by the Chinese that are
Speaker 1: not typically scheduled. These things are usually choreographed with all
Speaker 1: the various countries saying Okay, this is when we'll do yours,
Speaker 1: We'll do ours right after that. Um, And it's it's
Speaker 1: all kind of a an elaborate dance. This is outside
Speaker 1: of that. And so, uh, China and Russia have been
Speaker 1: very aggressive with their war games. We've we've seen a
Speaker 1: lot of press around the activity China did just around
Speaker 1: Taiwan recently. And this is just upping the anti So
Speaker 1: it's threatening, it's not good and and and it should
Speaker 1: concern us because the Indo pack, especially India's participation in
Speaker 1: these games is a great red flag for us to
Speaker 1: focus on. And I think means we need to focus
Speaker 1: more attention on India. Yeah, well that's right. Uh, India
Speaker 1: is part of this Joel, which is I think very
Speaker 1: troubling for the administration. Following the overtures made. But how
Speaker 1: about China. Look, nobody is going to be surprised by
Speaker 1: anything that Russia does. But isn't this a direct message
Speaker 1: from China to the West to say, yeah, we've we've
Speaker 1: got our own friends over here. All of this stuff
Speaker 1: is complicated when you talked about the geopolitics here and
Speaker 1: the safer rattling is always to be taken seriously. But
Speaker 1: I also think it may be reflects and effectiveness of
Speaker 1: the Biden foreign policy. Um that the work that the
Speaker 1: Biden administration is doing in Russia to pushback on the
Speaker 1: war in Ukraine, the work that the Biden administration has
Speaker 1: been doing too for instance, um, you know, try to
Speaker 1: racket China economically with you know, the Chips Act and
Speaker 1: other economic news internationally. I think some of what we're
Speaker 1: seeing is maybe a reaction to that, And um, it's
Speaker 1: always to be taken seriously, but it is a part
Speaker 1: of a big, complicated world. Also thinks reminds us rather
Speaker 1: rick to think about the chance of something going wrong
Speaker 1: when you put that many people, that many pieces of
Speaker 1: hardware altogether in one place. Uh, things can happen, as
Speaker 1: we have seen in this part of the world, all
Speaker 1: of this wealthy. The Chinese drones are flying over Taiwan. Uh,
Speaker 1: this is a more dangerous moment than we're used to. Yeah,
Speaker 1: and readiness goes up. And and but there is good
Speaker 1: military to military communication, especially with the Indians, uh in
Speaker 1: the US military. So those channels are open. They're talking,
Speaker 1: they're they're trying to understand what they're trying to accomplish
Speaker 1: without you know, learning anything that they don't want to
Speaker 1: give away. Uh. And and I think right now, even
Speaker 1: though there's a lot of saber lat saber rattling, as
Speaker 1: you said, um, it is not a time where I
Speaker 1: think China has chosen to uh try and create an
Speaker 1: incident with the United States. Everybody I've talked to you
Speaker 1: says it's not in their interests. They're not militarily capable
Speaker 1: of pulling something like that off. And it's not a
Speaker 1: good time to test this administration. It's still like playing
Speaker 1: with Taiwan though. And we've seen four days in a
Speaker 1: row now drones that came from mainland China described as
Speaker 1: civilian drones interestingly buzzing islands that that that are associated
Speaker 1: with Taiwan, that Taiwan considers their own they've been warning
Speaker 1: shots until yesterday when Taiwan actually shot one down. This
Speaker 1: is my exchange with John Kirby on that. Well, Look,
Speaker 1: we support Taiwan's right and ability to defend itself. That's
Speaker 1: what the Tairoan Relations Act is all about. The United
Speaker 1: States will continue to help them defend themselves. We'll let
Speaker 1: them speak to their operations and what they're doing or
Speaker 1: what they're not doing. But these reports are exactly what
Speaker 1: we've been talking about when we're talking about the risk
Speaker 1: of miscalculation um and rising, the risks of conflict, and
Speaker 1: nobody benefits from conflict. And around the Taiwan Straight, we
Speaker 1: have long said we don't want to see the status
Speaker 1: quo changed unilaterally, certainly not by force. And what you're
Speaker 1: seeing from the pr SEE is an effort to change
Speaker 1: the status quo by flying more over the Median line,
Speaker 1: by by flying unmanned aerial systems in around Taiwan and
Speaker 1: on around the Taiwan Straight and islands. I mean, this
Speaker 1: is about changing the status quo in the in the
Speaker 1: Chinese mind, and we're just gonna we find that unacceptable.
Speaker 1: We're not gonna just abide by that. We're gonna continue
Speaker 1: to make sure that Taiwan can defend itself and the U.
Speaker 1: S will continue to sail through the Taiwan Straight. Is
Speaker 1: that going to happen again eminently, Admiral Well. I don't
Speaker 1: have any future operations to speak to you. Saw we
Speaker 1: just did that last weekend with two U. S. Navy cruisers.
Speaker 1: We will continue to sail, operate and fly where international
Speaker 1: law permits us to do that. The Taiwan Straight is
Speaker 1: international waters. So I certainly, without without briefing a a
Speaker 1: specific transit here in the future, I can tell you
Speaker 1: we're going to continue to operate where international law permits
Speaker 1: us to do. You have it from the spokesman for
Speaker 1: the White House National Security Council. That sounds like status quo.
Speaker 1: To meet Joel and how careful he is in the
Speaker 1: administration is and addressing this Taiwan issue. Yeah. Look, I'm
Speaker 1: mean for a long time, our policy has been strategic
Speaker 1: ambiguity around Taiwan, around China. Um. I think the pelosis
Speaker 1: certainly amplifies the pressure on how this is handled. I
Speaker 1: do think. Um. You know what Kirby was saying there though,
Speaker 1: is the administration is not going to back down. I
Speaker 1: think it's important for the President to show that he's
Speaker 1: not intimidated that um, the American forces are going to
Speaker 1: be intimidated by any of these more aggressive actions by China.
Speaker 1: And I also think it's important to demonstrate that you're
Speaker 1: on the right side of history. I think maybe that's
Speaker 1: why the Pelosi visit um was so complicated, because I'm
Speaker 1: sure the President actually agreed with Speaker Pelosi, but his
Speaker 1: role as a president probably precluded him from, you know,
Speaker 1: sharing his full thoughts on it. You're surprised by how
Speaker 1: little reaction there was to China, Rick, and seeing that
Speaker 1: drone shot down, you know, I think it's in everybody's
Speaker 1: interest to make that sort of a ho hum moment.
Speaker 1: And but the message was sent to China that the
Speaker 1: Taiwanese aren't going to sit back and let themselves be
Speaker 1: threatened by this country. No, that's for sure. Rick Davis
Speaker 1: and Joel Payne with us on the panel as we
Speaker 1: review our conversation with John Kirby from the White House.
Speaker 1: Coming up, the latest in the war in Ukraine and
Speaker 1: the potential for a demilitarized zone around the nuclear power
Speaker 1: plants where U N inspectors have arrived. It's coming up
Speaker 1: next this is Bloomberg. You're listening to Bloomberg sound on
Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Radio. The nuclear inspectors made their way into
Speaker 1: the plant. They've actually finished their first day as we
Speaker 1: keep an eye on what's happening in Ukraine. To the
Speaker 1: International Atomic Energy Agency director and a few members of
Speaker 1: an inspection team left the Zapparisian Nuclear power plant after
Speaker 1: several hours they spent inside. The Ukrainian state run company
Speaker 1: that manages the plant says five of a dozen inspectors
Speaker 1: are expected to stay until Saturday. That's where we are
Speaker 1: with things, and that is where I pick up our
Speaker 1: conversation with retired Admiral John Kirby, spokesman for the National
Speaker 1: Security Council at the White House. We'll see how the
Speaker 1: panel can uh feel about this as well as we
Speaker 1: work our way through a number of different stories. This
Speaker 1: is a big win though with we with the focus
Speaker 1: on the war in Ukraine, and I started again in
Speaker 1: this case by asking about Russia's posture in Ukraine now,
Speaker 1: the number of casualties they've suffered and exactly what state
Speaker 1: of readiness the Russian military is in the Russians have
Speaker 1: clearly suffered UH an enormous number of casualties. I don't
Speaker 1: have the exact figure today, and we're we're careful not
Speaker 1: to talk about those numbers too specifically because frankly, it
Speaker 1: changes literally every day. But they have suffered an enormous
Speaker 1: amount of casualties, both killed and wounded. And we know
Speaker 1: that to be the fact because we also know that Mr.
Speaker 1: Putin is going to extraordinary lengths to try to recruit
Speaker 1: and retain soldiers for this fight, even to the point
Speaker 1: where he's he's he's turned into two prisons UH and
Speaker 1: he's up in their recruitment age well into UH, well
Speaker 1: into the fifties. So we know that he's he's having
Speaker 1: a manpower issue. He's also having quite frankly, command and
Speaker 1: control issues on the ground, unit cohesion and morale UH
Speaker 1: and battlefield performance issues in Ukraine by using this largely
Speaker 1: conscript force that doesn't have the same will to fight
Speaker 1: that the Ukrainians do and certainly doesn't have the capabilities
Speaker 1: that they do. We understand that new U N Nuclear
Speaker 1: inspectors have arrived at the nuclear power plant in southeastern Ukraine.
Speaker 1: This is something that has been long and coming. I
Speaker 1: know that the US wanted to see this happen, should
Speaker 1: the US also take part in setting up a demilitarized
Speaker 1: zone around that plants. Admiral the President has been clear
Speaker 1: we're not going to have US boots involved in the
Speaker 1: U S troops since sorry involved in the war in Ukraine,
Speaker 1: so I see no role for the United States and
Speaker 1: in creating a demilitarized zone around that power plant. We
Speaker 1: do want there to be such a demilitarized zone around
Speaker 1: that plant. We don't want to see the plant be
Speaker 1: the scene of combat action. That should never be the case. Uh.
Speaker 1: And it's the Russians who have militarized upreach a nuclear
Speaker 1: power plant and we urge and calling them to demilitarize
Speaker 1: it as quickly as possible. Also, and I'm glad you
Speaker 1: pointed out that the inspectors are there. We're glad to
Speaker 1: see that. We hope that they're given unfettered access, and
Speaker 1: we look forward to their report about the safety and
Speaker 1: the operational efficiency of that nuclear power plant, because again,
Speaker 1: the danger could be so much bigger, not just to
Speaker 1: the people of Ukraine, but but even to the region.
Speaker 1: So it's important that those inspectors are given unfettered access,
Speaker 1: allowed to do their job and to stay as long
Speaker 1: as they need to stay to be able to report back,
Speaker 1: and apparently that will be until Saturday. As we read
Speaker 1: on the terminal with the inspectors continuing their work. John Kirby,
Speaker 1: they're speaking to us again from the north lawn of
Speaker 1: the White House as we reassemble the panel, Bloomberg Politics
Speaker 1: contributor Rick Davis and Democratic strategist Joel Peen. Uh. Rick,
Speaker 1: it's almost like you wrote his answer on the status
Speaker 1: of Russian forces right now, but it really hits home,
Speaker 1: uh exactly. You know how how challenging this could be
Speaker 1: actually for Fladomy Putent's forces to go any further in
Speaker 1: Ukraine this winter. Yeah, no matter what the disinformation is,
Speaker 1: just look at what he's having to do to man
Speaker 1: a military in the field, right, I mean, this was
Speaker 1: a poorly plan poorly staffed operation to begin with, and
Speaker 1: now the fact that he has to go out and
Speaker 1: recruit prisoners and fifty year olds. I remember being of
Speaker 1: course I felt better than that I do now, But
Speaker 1: you know I'm going to war, no, thank you. I
Speaker 1: don't think I'm ready for that at the moment, and
Speaker 1: you'd hide from that, right, That's something he's got to
Speaker 1: do to be able to sustain that that effort in Ukraine,
Speaker 1: and it's exposing his hand. Well, we've got a situation
Speaker 1: around this power plant here, Joel. You heard Kirby say
Speaker 1: that they'd like to have a demilitarized zone, but of
Speaker 1: course the US can't put the risk of having boots
Speaker 1: on the ground to help make that happen. How much
Speaker 1: of a flashpoint is this going to be? I mean,
Speaker 1: we get a report from inspectors, but that doesn't mean
Speaker 1: the Russians are ever going to leave it. I think
Speaker 1: the President has been clear on what his red lines
Speaker 1: are around Ukraine. I think ground forces on the ground
Speaker 1: in Ukraine is a no go right now. And by
Speaker 1: the way, I think that that's supported by the American people. Um.
Speaker 1: I think there's a heavy disinterest right now in this
Speaker 1: country politically and sending US troops to another country. UM.
Speaker 1: I do think, however, it's very clear that the President
Speaker 1: and that his national security team are all in on
Speaker 1: supporting the Ukrainians. And I do think that that is
Speaker 1: a good balance, the right balances right right now. If
Speaker 1: there's a meltdown, though, Rick, I mean, at some point
Speaker 1: the United States would have to get more involved here.
Speaker 1: That it's not only the danger involved with the with
Speaker 1: the meltdown at the largest nuclear power plant in Europe,
Speaker 1: but it provides an enormous amount of energy to Ukraine
Speaker 1: that is already having trouble keeping up with demand based
Speaker 1: on what China is, based on what Russia is doing. Yeah, absolutely,
Speaker 1: any any kind of event that releases radioactive material that
Speaker 1: plant puts into risk Europe but also Russia itself, right,
Speaker 1: because that stuff doesn't have borders that they identify, and
Speaker 1: and so you have to hope that that protecting his
Speaker 1: own people has to you know, fall into his decision matrix.
Speaker 1: But you're right, uh, you know, like the threats of
Speaker 1: using nuclear weapons and like the threat of of of
Speaker 1: of weaponizing a nuclear power plant, it does complicate the
Speaker 1: US ability to keep out of the direct fray and
Speaker 1: and continue to be the supporter of the Ukrainian people.
Speaker 1: So will consult obviously with our European allies. But it
Speaker 1: could create quite an event. But but there's no self
Speaker 1: interest in his part, right, I mean, like he's got
Speaker 1: to worry about his own country and the impact of
Speaker 1: that nuclear plant, uh, going across border. Rick Davis and
Speaker 1: Joel Payne will be with us for the hour our
Speaker 1: panel today on the fastest hour in politics, as we
Speaker 1: turn back into the US here domestic politics next, and
Speaker 1: President Biden preparing for a prime time at rest to
Speaker 1: the nation. Will be joined straight ahead by Lincoln Mitchell,
Speaker 1: political analyst on the job for Joe Biden. This is Bloomberg,
Speaker 1: all right, Charlie, thanks for just a few hours away
Speaker 1: now eight pm Eastern Time. You'll hear it. You'll see
Speaker 1: it on Bloomberg TV and radio and of course on
Speaker 1: your terminal. President Biden in prime time from Philadelphia. This
Speaker 1: is the big speech. What a wind up we've had.
Speaker 1: If you look back over the past couple of weeks,
Speaker 1: and particularly starting a week ago tonight, that was really
Speaker 1: the warm up here. The President has been testing the
Speaker 1: ultra Maga lines and so forth, never mind the semi
Speaker 1: fascism thing for for the balance of the summer. You're
Speaker 1: talking about ultra Maga Senator Scott, the Maga agenda and
Speaker 1: so forth. But it kind of took on a new
Speaker 1: level last week as the President spoke not only to
Speaker 1: that fundraiser, but before a hall of supporters in Rockville, Maryland.
Speaker 1: Republicans don't just threaten our personal rights and economic security
Speaker 1: They're a threat to our very democracy. They refuse to
Speaker 1: accept the will of the people. They embrace, embrace political violence.
Speaker 1: They don't believe in democracy. This is why, in this moment,
Speaker 1: those of you who love this country, Democrats, independence, mainstream Republicans,
Speaker 1: we must be stronger, more determined, and more committed to
Speaker 1: saving America than the Maga Republicans are destroying America. You
Speaker 1: wonder if he'll raise his voice like that and use
Speaker 1: similar language, because this has been kind of, like I said,
Speaker 1: a gathering storm from the White House. Karine John Pierre,
Speaker 1: the Press Secretary, was asked today what we should expect
Speaker 1: and exactly what the President means calling out Republicans and
Speaker 1: so called ultra Maga the way that he sees as
Speaker 1: the maga Republicans are the most energized part of the
Speaker 1: Republican party. Uh. That extreme. This is an extreme threat
Speaker 1: to our demorrow, to our freedom, to our rights. Uh.
Speaker 1: They just don't respect the rule of law. You heard
Speaker 1: that from the president. Uh, and you know they are
Speaker 1: pursuing an agenda that takes away people's rights. We just
Speaker 1: got excerpts from the speech while I was playing that
Speaker 1: for you, very brief Maga forces he will say, are
Speaker 1: determined to take this country backwards to in America where
Speaker 1: there is no right to choose, no right to privacy,
Speaker 1: no rights to contraception, and no right to marry who
Speaker 1: you love. Let's bring in Lincoln Mitchell, Political analyst, adjunct
Speaker 1: Associate Research Scholar at the Institute of War in Peace
Speaker 1: Studies at Columbia University. It's great to have you back, Lincoln.
Speaker 1: Striking the right tone is awfully important here, as this
Speaker 1: appears to be the kickoff, if you will, to the
Speaker 1: general election. Is the president looking in the right direction here?
Speaker 1: He's not talking about legislative accomplishments. This is a maga speech.
Speaker 1: That's right, and it's a tough It's a tough balance
Speaker 1: he has to strike here. If he were just trying
Speaker 1: to do, you know, the thing that will help the
Speaker 1: Democrats the most of the fall, he would stick to
Speaker 1: abortion rights, gun reform, his recent legislative accomplishments, Katangi Brown,
Speaker 1: Jackson on the Supreme Court, and the extremism of the
Speaker 1: Republican Party. But he's not doing that. He's really going
Speaker 1: and talking about the heart of the problem of the
Speaker 1: crisis of American democracy in a way that he has
Speaker 1: not done since really he became a candidate with a
Speaker 1: very few exceptions here or there. And that may not
Speaker 1: be the best political strategy, but it is an essential
Speaker 1: part of presidential leadership. When the country is threatened on
Speaker 1: our democracy, is threatened by foreigner domestic forces, the president
Speaker 1: kind of has to say something. And I think that's
Speaker 1: what's behind this decision by by the President Biden. Yeah,
Speaker 1: the White House has made clear through a senior official
Speaker 1: talking with reporters earlier and will be about twenty five
Speaker 1: minutes long. When you approach this Lincoln from a writing standpoint,
Speaker 1: what do you have in your mind here? Does he
Speaker 1: need to have a couple of memorable lines that become
Speaker 1: sound bites after? Is this about a great arc and
Speaker 1: the speech? What's what's the job for the writer? Well,
Speaker 1: remember when you think about being a writer, a speech
Speaker 1: writer for a politician, you think about who you're writing for. Right,
Speaker 1: So you would make a very different speech for I
Speaker 1: don't know what Barack Obama than for Joe Biden on
Speaker 1: the Democratic side, right, or Donald Trump or George W.
Speaker 1: Bush or somebody you know. Uh, Biden is not burdened
Speaker 1: by great oratorical skills, right, This is not mary O Cuomo,
Speaker 1: if you can make a dated reference, you know, just
Speaker 1: making some speech that people remember for decades. He Biden
Speaker 1: doesn't have that in him. What he is good at
Speaker 1: is connecting with people and communicating a basic sense of decency.
Speaker 1: So that's what I would focus on. Come on here,
Speaker 1: we're Americans in America. When you lose an election, you
Speaker 1: put your head down and you work harder the next time.
Speaker 1: You know, messages like that rather than even though as
Speaker 1: a political scientist in me is perfectly fine with language
Speaker 1: like this is a thread of fascism, But I don't
Speaker 1: know that Biden can nail that home the way a
Speaker 1: better orator might. Interesting does he stray off the speech?
Speaker 1: Does he look into the camera drop a classic Biden line?
Speaker 1: Or is that just too dangerous? Well, you're asking two
Speaker 1: different questions there. Should he straight off the speech? Yeah?
Speaker 1: I don't know why I on a on a speech
Speaker 1: of this nature where he's putting a lot of time
Speaker 1: and his speechwriters are putting a lot of time several drafts.
Speaker 1: He should probably stay on on on script. Is he
Speaker 1: likely to stray off the speech? It's Joe Biden, So
Speaker 1: he short answered that is yes, Okay, this is how
Speaker 1: you know, we we try to figure how you're going
Speaker 1: to fill the amount of time now is when he's
Speaker 1: talking about mega Republicans Lincoln. One of the questions that
Speaker 1: came up in the briefing today if found really interesting
Speaker 1: at the White House, as he also encourages the involvement
Speaker 1: of what he likes to refer to as mainstream Republicans.
Speaker 1: How does the White House tell the difference or how
Speaker 1: should Americans interpret this to to draw the line between
Speaker 1: a maga Republican and a so called mainstream Republican. Are
Speaker 1: they wearing different colored T shirts? Or how does this work? Well,
Speaker 1: what Biden is trying to do is to send a
Speaker 1: message to a American voter who maybe a Republican may
Speaker 1: being not registered with with any party, is not a Democrat,
Speaker 1: and say, listen, if you believe in a government that
Speaker 1: taxes less and has less involvement in the economy, if
Speaker 1: you believe that maybe we shouldn't we should have a
Speaker 1: more traditional conventional view of social issues, you still can't
Speaker 1: join in with the Donald Trump's because they fundamentally don't
Speaker 1: believe in democracy. And to not believe in democracies, to
Speaker 1: not believe in America. That's where he wants to go
Speaker 1: with this. The problem is that as an observer looking
Speaker 1: at Republican election primary returns and things like that, the
Speaker 1: distinction between Maga Republicans and mainstream Republicans is one without
Speaker 1: a difference, and we see this in many Republican primaries.
Speaker 1: I'll just point to the one in Georgia for the U. S. Senate,
Speaker 1: which occurred a little while ago, with herschel Walker, as
Speaker 1: you know, won the nomination. Herschel Walker is an altar
Speaker 1: of Maga guy. I think we would all agree on that.
Speaker 1: But David Perdue is also a MAGA guy, right, And
Speaker 1: and there's this. I think the punditry and the mainstream
Speaker 1: of the Democratic Party desperately wants to say they're not
Speaker 1: all Donald Trump, not all Marga, but marga. The MAGA
Speaker 1: movement has captured the Republican Party, and I can't quite
Speaker 1: come out and say that they're right exactly. These are
Speaker 1: some fine lines, Lincoln, Great to talk to you again.
Speaker 1: Lincoln Mitchell joining us from the Institute of War and
Speaker 1: Peace Studies at Columbia University. We'll play this to the
Speaker 1: panel next. Rick Davis, we'll have his input here as
Speaker 1: well as Joel Payne, Democratic strategists, with us for the
Speaker 1: hour on Bloomberg Sound On. I'm Joe Matthew and Washington.
Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg. You're listening to Bloomberg Sound On with
Speaker 1: Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio. As America waits to hear
Speaker 1: from the president or is it I don't know, primetime
Speaker 1: presidential address? Does it mean what it used to? Will
Speaker 1: see how the president uses it. Of course, as we
Speaker 1: discussed here on sound On, it will be cut up
Speaker 1: ten ways to Sunday, and it'll be all over social
Speaker 1: media before the President is even back in Washington, so
Speaker 1: people will receive this in various ways of course. Here
Speaker 1: on Bloomberg starts eight pm Eastern Time, Bloomberg TV and Radio.
Speaker 1: As we reassemble the panel for more on this, Rick
Speaker 1: Davis and Joel Payne are with us today. Bloomberg Politics contributor,
Speaker 1: Republican strategist Rick Davis, Democratic strategist Joel Paine, former director
Speaker 1: of African American advertising for Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign. Joel,
Speaker 1: what do you want to hear as a Democrat from
Speaker 1: this president tonight? Do you want to hear about Ultra
Speaker 1: Maga or do you want to hear about accomplishments made
Speaker 1: in the Democratic led Congress. You know, I think speeches
Speaker 1: all have different utilities based on the moment that we're
Speaker 1: in and what the end goal is. I think it's
Speaker 1: pretty clear to me, Joe, you actually said this earlier
Speaker 1: year conversation with Lincoln. This to me sounds like it's
Speaker 1: a predicate for and I think the president, um, if
Speaker 1: you'll remember when he decided to jump in the primary
Speaker 1: and twenty nineteen for he talked about the battle for
Speaker 1: the soul of the country. It feels like an interesting
Speaker 1: bookmark that that conversation that he jumped into their I
Speaker 1: think he's you or a forwarding that conversation now. And
Speaker 1: I do think that it's going to lay out the
Speaker 1: rationale for potentially another Biden tournament. Why it's important to
Speaker 1: push back on the anti democratic moves and some republic
Speaker 1: Does it compromise Joe Biden's image though, of of being
Speaker 1: you know, the compromiser in chief, of being the bipartisan
Speaker 1: who knows and used to be friends with all these
Speaker 1: Republicans and can actually you know, cut through the partisanship
Speaker 1: and get things done. That was a big reason why
Speaker 1: a lot of people voted for him in can he
Speaker 1: still make that claim? Well, Joe, when you say all
Speaker 1: these Republicans and actually, again I was listening to your
Speaker 1: previous conversation, I do think he's trying to drive a
Speaker 1: wedge in the Republican Party between these major Republicans and
Speaker 1: the mainstream Republicans. I think there's about fift the Republican
Speaker 1: Party that the president feels like he can reach. That's
Speaker 1: the audience for speech like this and so um. I
Speaker 1: actually think it's very strategic for the president to try
Speaker 1: to separate the folks on the Republican Party into people
Speaker 1: who believe in democracy and those who don't. People who
Speaker 1: we can work with and who care about the greater
Speaker 1: good of the country, and those who don't. I think
Speaker 1: that's what he's doing here tonight. What do you think, Rick,
Speaker 1: is Joe Biden demand to split to divide the Republican
Speaker 1: Party at this time? You know, I don't think he's
Speaker 1: gonna be the man to divide the Republican Party. I
Speaker 1: actually thought he had a much better opportunity after he
Speaker 1: won the presidency to actually legitimately reach out to Republicans
Speaker 1: and try to bring him into the administration. Um, but
Speaker 1: they didn't write. I mean, they're really no high profile
Speaker 1: Republican appointees other than Cindney McCain. And so the reality
Speaker 1: is that there's not going to be a bipartisan initiative
Speaker 1: in the next two years because it does look like
Speaker 1: there's going to be a potentially split government and nothing's
Speaker 1: gonna hit done on Capitol Hill like it did this year.
Speaker 1: So he's already booked some good success with bipartisanship. Now
Speaker 1: it's now it's about the stakes of this election. I
Speaker 1: don't I don't think it's four. I think it's two.
Speaker 1: I think that Democrats have some medal in their back
Speaker 1: on you know, really taking a hard shot at trying
Speaker 1: to keep the House. And the more Democrats I talked to,
Speaker 1: the more I'm not it's not talking points. I think
Speaker 1: they really believe it. And so it isn't a bad platform.
Speaker 1: You know, when you say I'm going to talk about
Speaker 1: the soul of our country democracy to say this is
Speaker 1: the stakes of the election, it gets bigger, right, and
Speaker 1: by the way Republicans care about democracy to you know,
Speaker 1: all the recent polls show that this is something that's
Speaker 1: starting to divide our party and and yet I do
Speaker 1: think he wants to put the context bigger than just
Speaker 1: his legislative achievements. He wants to be about the future
Speaker 1: of our country as a democracy. If Ricky flagged the
Speaker 1: new Quinnipiac Pole with sixty seven percent thinking democracy is
Speaker 1: in danger of collapse, that is a massive majority. It's
Speaker 1: a massive majority. And it's up just under ten percent
Speaker 1: since January. So this is getting worse. It's January, yeah,
Speaker 1: worse than January. And so the reality is that that
Speaker 1: he had, you know, as president. This is something Joe
Speaker 1: Biden had addressed in the past as a candidate. As president,
Speaker 1: he I think feels compelled that this is his job.
Speaker 1: I think he's a true believer in this regard and
Speaker 1: he sees this as a major difference with Donald Trump
Speaker 1: and the MAGA crowd. And by the way, Magat is
Speaker 1: Donald Trump. If Donald Trump were gone tomorrow, there would
Speaker 1: know there would be virtually nothing of a MAGA movement.
Speaker 1: It would be like, you know, some of the old
Speaker 1: caucuses that we used to have that caused so much
Speaker 1: trouble for Republicans in the in the House. You know
Speaker 1: what else this poll found this Quinnipiac Pole. Joel is
Speaker 1: the president's rising approval rating. Now we have to we
Speaker 1: have to put this in perspective. He came in at
Speaker 1: fort but it's up from only thirty one percent six
Speaker 1: weeks ago. Uh SOVET eight right now is pegging the
Speaker 1: number at forty two percent when you look at a
Speaker 1: couple of different polls here, do you celebrate a move
Speaker 1: like that or is this still a problem that he's
Speaker 1: underwater this close to the mid terms. Oh, Joe, I'm
Speaker 1: a Democrat. We we liked the Meyer in our old
Speaker 1: self doubt right, I mean, we got it. Do Look,
Speaker 1: I do think the trend lines are pointing in the
Speaker 1: right direction for the President and Democrats. And that's what
Speaker 1: I think about with pulling. It's less about the snapshot
Speaker 1: of the moment. It's more about where the arrow is pointed,
Speaker 1: and it's pointing in the right direction. One, the President
Speaker 1: is getting back to talking how the American people are
Speaker 1: used to hearing him. But also there's accomplishments. There's real
Speaker 1: things at the end of the summer that he and
Speaker 1: his allies and Congress were able to put forth and
Speaker 1: put in front of the American people as tangible good
Speaker 1: um you know, returns on the promises of the president made,
Speaker 1: and so I think you're certainly going to see that.
Speaker 1: By the way, the biggest jump, it looks like it's
Speaker 1: from Democrats. The President was very low or pretty low
Speaker 1: comparatively with Democrats. I think he was in the seventies
Speaker 1: in a previous pull and that stuff over that's where
Speaker 1: he's making up. Brown. I have to ask you both
Speaker 1: about what happened last night in Alaska. This is the
Speaker 1: latest special election member we had new York. This one
Speaker 1: was to fill the seat held by the late Congressman
Speaker 1: Don Young. Did you hear who lost? I am a
Speaker 1: mama grizzly and all rear up on my high legs
Speaker 1: when somebody comes after my cubs. Yeah, Sarah Palin lost
Speaker 1: to the Democrat Mary Peltola in this special last night.
Speaker 1: Rick Davis, Uh, Sarah Palin will live and apologies in
Speaker 1: advance of this whole conversation. She will live on to
Speaker 1: fight another election in November. This is a short term deal.
Speaker 1: But what does it tell us in the wake of
Speaker 1: the special in New York about Republican prospects in the fall? Yeah, look,
Speaker 1: I mean it's it's actually I think just as much
Speaker 1: about what's going on with rank order voting, right, because
Speaker 1: this was a quite an election rank choice voting. It's
Speaker 1: an unusual election at regard. But look, I mean you
Speaker 1: could argue that there was a little bit of uplift
Speaker 1: for for Mary in In in the contest. But look,
Speaker 1: most of the polling I've seen around a November election
Speaker 1: that will go through this all over again, is that
Speaker 1: that that this could wind up. Nick Eggage was the
Speaker 1: first one out in this rank order, ranked choice voting,
Speaker 1: and and he may he may wind up be in
Speaker 1: the winter out of the next go round, because Sarah
Speaker 1: Palin may come in third in the current polling that
Speaker 1: I've seen around November. So this thing is a bit
Speaker 1: like a craps game, right, you just keep building on
Speaker 1: numbers until your crap out. And and I'm not a
Speaker 1: fan of rank choice voting. Yeah, well, I mean it's interesting.
Speaker 1: I think jury is out and I think that the
Speaker 1: idea that a uh, significantly read state now has a
Speaker 1: Democrat member of Congress representing the entire state is kind
Speaker 1: of novel. We're going to see how how people in
Speaker 1: Alaska like that. Dave Wasserman at the Cook Political Report
Speaker 1: tweeted Joel that Democrats in the House, just increase their
Speaker 1: land mass by a hundred and four percent and one
Speaker 1: special election, because it is Alaska we're talking about. But uh,
Speaker 1: you know, speaking of ranked choice voting, I don't know
Speaker 1: if you heard or saw this video as a very
Speaker 1: brief video that was captured by somebody's cell phone of
Speaker 1: Sarah Palin when she had learned she lost and she
Speaker 1: was incredulous. If you listens very brief, sol, you know,
Speaker 1: that's all we have on that. But I won't get
Speaker 1: into a debate with you about ranked choice voting. I
Speaker 1: just wonder how much Alaskans hold against Sarah Palin, the
Speaker 1: fact that she quit when she was governor. Candidates matter, Um,
Speaker 1: Local storylines, parochial issues matter. Um, you're you're you know.
Speaker 1: Obviously we're a big audience in New York. Lots of
Speaker 1: people know about those special elections and those primaries in
Speaker 1: New York a few weeks ago, where those local issues
Speaker 1: kind of took precedent over the national storyline. So UM,
Speaker 1: I don't know if the story here is ranked choice voting.
Speaker 1: I think it's about kind of the local legacy of
Speaker 1: Sarah Palin in Alaska. She was not the most beloved
Speaker 1: figure in that state by the time she departed that
Speaker 1: state and interternational scene, and I think that might have
Speaker 1: a lot more to do with it than m process,
Speaker 1: which I think Republicans be careful that they are poking
Speaker 1: holes the process every time they don't like an outcome. Rick,
Speaker 1: was the Trump endorsement help for a hindrance for uh, well,
Speaker 1: obviously didn't help her enough, right and right, And so
Speaker 1: I'm not sure. I'm not sure how much of an impact.
Speaker 1: I mean, she was already going to get all those
Speaker 1: Trump voters that that we're willing to vote for Sarah Palin, right,
Speaker 1: I mean, if anything, I think her image in Alaska
Speaker 1: is much bigger than Donald Trump's image in Alaska and
Speaker 1: and and equally divisive. Right, So, I mean, you know,
Speaker 1: I don't think I don't think he could help her
Speaker 1: hurt her in Alaska. She's a She's a bigger personality
Speaker 1: than he is. With that electric Do you have a
Speaker 1: thought on her chances in November? You know, look, I
Speaker 1: think they're limited. I mean right now, you know, when
Speaker 1: I look at the polling data going into November, you
Speaker 1: know she's she's third, and if she's third, she's first out.
Speaker 1: And so the question is where her votes go, Probably
Speaker 1: the Republican I doubt if any of her votes are
Speaker 1: going to go with a Democrats. So it's a completely
Speaker 1: different election. Uh, just happens to be the same people.
Speaker 1: Great panel, Rick, thank you as always, Rick Davis, of course,
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Politics contributor and Republican strategist Joel Payne. Great to
Speaker 1: have you, Joel. I hope you'll come back and talk
Speaker 1: to us soon, be part of the program again. Former
Speaker 1: director of African American advertising for Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign.
Speaker 1: The fastest hour in politics. You're ready now for the
Speaker 1: speech tonight, maybe even the cocktail party beforehand. Don't you
Speaker 1: feel smarter? That's why we do this every day on Bloomberg.
Speaker 1: And we'll meet again tomorrow where it is. Labor Secretary
Speaker 1: Marty Walsh will be among those joining us on Jobs Day,
Speaker 1: and I look forward to that conversation. In the meantime,
Speaker 1: check out the speech tonight, will dissect everything and analyze
Speaker 1: it with our panel tomorrow from Washington. I'm Joe Matthew.
Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg