WEBVTT - Apple Unveils New AI Tools, Including ChatGPT Tie-Up

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. This is Bloomberg Business

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<v Speaker 1>Wait inside from the reporters and editors who bring you

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<v Speaker 1>America's most trusted business magazine, plus global business, finance and

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<v Speaker 1>tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week Podcast with Carol Messer

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<v Speaker 1>and Tim Stenebeck from Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, the moment of truth for Apple's AI plans and

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<v Speaker 2>for the four hundred and seventy one billion dollar rally

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<v Speaker 2>that has rescued the stock from adul drums. We've talked

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<v Speaker 2>about AI being a central focus of the ww DC

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<v Speaker 2>kicked off at one pm Wall Street time today. We've

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<v Speaker 2>been giving you updates throughout the day on that partnership

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<v Speaker 2>with Open Ai and everything that Apple has thus far announced.

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<v Speaker 2>We'll continue to bring those updates as we do get

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<v Speaker 2>them throughout the week. But first, let's talk about the

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<v Speaker 2>stock reaction. Because Ryan Lestelica is Bloomberg News Equities reporter.

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<v Speaker 2>He writes all about what's at stake with Apple and AI.

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<v Speaker 2>Shares of Apple down by one point eight percent right now.

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<v Speaker 2>Ryan joins us from the Home Bureau in Chicago. Ryan,

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<v Speaker 2>give us what's at stake right now for Apple? Given

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<v Speaker 2>that you know, yes, it's significantly underperformed the s andvvatpunder

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<v Speaker 2>in the Nasdaq one hundred right now, but we've seen

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<v Speaker 2>a rally over the last month that has investors looking

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<v Speaker 2>pretty optimistic.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah. Absolutely. So the context I would say is that

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<v Speaker 3>Apple is really facing two key concerns. One was that

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<v Speaker 3>it just wasn't growing all that much. I think five

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<v Speaker 3>in the past six quarters, it'saw negative revenue growth, and

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<v Speaker 3>a lot of the other names bintech have been showing

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<v Speaker 3>pretty robust growth, and a lot of that is due

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<v Speaker 3>to AI, which is an area where it felt like

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<v Speaker 3>Apple was a little bit behind the curve. It didn't

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<v Speaker 3>really have a very articulated AI strategy. People were really

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<v Speaker 3>hoping that today would really address both of those, that

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<v Speaker 3>it would announce all these kinds of new AI features,

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<v Speaker 3>especially for the iPhone, and then that would spur people

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<v Speaker 3>to begin upgrading their phones and that would spur you know,

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<v Speaker 3>a new leg of revenue growth for the stock. So

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<v Speaker 3>it did come out wasn't anything I think that was

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<v Speaker 3>too surprising as far as the new features, as far

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<v Speaker 3>as the new you know, applications and the way that

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<v Speaker 3>it all is being integrated across the you know, the ecosystem.

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<v Speaker 3>But I think right now we're seeing a little bit

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<v Speaker 3>of a pullback. Not incredibly dramatic given how much it's

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<v Speaker 3>been coming up ahead of it, but it does seem like,

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<v Speaker 3>you know, as far as the drecting, will this be

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<v Speaker 3>enough for people to you know, trade in and you know,

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<v Speaker 3>spend more than thousand dollars in a new phone.

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<v Speaker 4>That's what I wanted.

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<v Speaker 5>We wanted to get with you, and like we've been

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<v Speaker 5>getting into some of the fundamentals off of the event

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<v Speaker 5>on the West Coast around Apple. But Ryan, when you

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<v Speaker 5>look at the share price in the bounce back that

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<v Speaker 5>we have had, as we note this four hundred and

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<v Speaker 5>seventy one billion dollar rally off of what the lows

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<v Speaker 5>you know, that we've seen in Apple. You know that's

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<v Speaker 5>even though the stock is a little change, it's had

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<v Speaker 5>quite a bounce back. How much of or what is

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<v Speaker 5>that enthusiasm or that bounce back reflect And as you said,

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<v Speaker 5>Apple shares a little bit lower, but maybe not such

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<v Speaker 5>a big deal considering the bounce back we've had.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, So one thing I would say is that early

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<v Speaker 3>in May it had its latest quarterly report and it's

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<v Speaker 3>pretty encouraging. The forecast is seen as pretty encouraging, pointing

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<v Speaker 3>to a return to growth kind of ease some concerns

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<v Speaker 3>about the date of sales out of China, which is

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<v Speaker 3>an incredibly important market for them, and there has been

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<v Speaker 3>a lot of optimism about AI. And of course in

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<v Speaker 3>that quarterly report, Apple did announce the largest stock buyback

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<v Speaker 3>program in US history, one hundred and ten billion. I

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<v Speaker 3>think that is helping to put a flaw under the

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<v Speaker 3>stock if nothing else, you know, and certainly if you

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<v Speaker 3>look at Apple on evaluation basis, especially with respect to

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<v Speaker 3>the growth, that might screen as you know, somewhat pricey.

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<v Speaker 3>But if you look at it as far as all

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<v Speaker 3>the quality characteristics with respect to the buyback, with respect

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<v Speaker 3>to cash flow, profitability, you know, all that kind of

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<v Speaker 3>stuff that does screen is pretty you know, screen is

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<v Speaker 3>pretty strong on those So I think that's also been

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<v Speaker 3>you know, there is sort of a view that apples

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<v Speaker 3>is safety and maybe it's not as pronounced as it

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<v Speaker 3>was in past times. Growth is a little bit more robust,

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<v Speaker 3>but certainly it's it's part of it.

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<v Speaker 5>Here, all right. Apple shares down one point eighty percent.

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<v Speaker 5>Ryan lestealka Bloomberg News equities reporter, joining us there in Chicago.

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<v Speaker 5>We're going to stay with Apple.

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<v Speaker 2>Let's bring in a Bloomberg News Chief Technology course, Mark German,

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<v Speaker 2>who joins us from LA Mark. Tim Cook has wrapped

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<v Speaker 2>up his comments. They began. The WWDC kicked off I

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<v Speaker 2>should say, at one pm Wall Street time, so it's

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<v Speaker 2>been a couple hours. Biggest headlines so far, give them

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<v Speaker 2>to us.

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<v Speaker 6>The biggest headline is probably the open AI partnership that

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<v Speaker 6>we have been talking about for several months.

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<v Speaker 2>I knew that because you told us about it, Mark, yes,

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<v Speaker 2>ahead of time.

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<v Speaker 7>That was probably the highlight.

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<v Speaker 6>But obviously that's part of the larger AI strategy, which

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<v Speaker 6>is Apple Intelligence.

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<v Speaker 7>As we also talked about now.

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<v Speaker 6>The way they explain Apple Intelligence is AI for the

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<v Speaker 6>rest of us, right. That harkens back to the old

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<v Speaker 6>Apple school, old school Apple line, which is a computer

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<v Speaker 6>for the rest of us, right, And so this is

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<v Speaker 6>a more friendly approach to AI. This is AI integrated

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<v Speaker 6>deeply inside of applications, things like summarizing notifications, writing tools,

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<v Speaker 6>image editing, much improved version of Siri. So the AI

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<v Speaker 6>was the focus of the event. The other stuff sort

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<v Speaker 6>of took you know, was pushed onto the back burner.

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<v Speaker 6>They started off by talking about more customizable home screen

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<v Speaker 6>on the iPhone and iPad, some new gesture controls to

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<v Speaker 6>operate the vision pro But of course the highlights were,

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<v Speaker 6>of course the experience coming for AI to the iPhone,

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<v Speaker 6>the iPad of the Mac and so it's going to

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<v Speaker 6>be quite significant for Apple. It's very clear to me

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<v Speaker 6>that they're starting off pretty slow here. They're going to

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<v Speaker 6>expand over time.

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<v Speaker 5>A couple questions, so AI for the rest of us

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<v Speaker 5>marketing our innovation in.

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<v Speaker 6>Your view, Well, it's marketing based on what they have

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<v Speaker 6>available to them.

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<v Speaker 7>Right.

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<v Speaker 6>This is as far as they could take their AI

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<v Speaker 6>feature set for the time being, and so they're going

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<v Speaker 6>to market around that. Their AI is not as advanced

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<v Speaker 6>as what open ai is able to offer at this

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<v Speaker 6>point or Google Gemini. That's why they're partnering with open

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<v Speaker 6>Ai on integrating chat GPT into a chatbot inside of

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<v Speaker 6>the iPhone experience. That's why they're still talking to Google

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<v Speaker 6>Gemini and Anthropic about integrating their large language models into

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<v Speaker 6>the iPhone as well.

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<v Speaker 5>Do they go ahead, Carol, Well, the one thing I

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<v Speaker 5>was going to say is, I'm a real observer. It's

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<v Speaker 5>just kind of who I am as a personality slow

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<v Speaker 5>and steady sometimes, but slow and steady sometimes wins the race.

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<v Speaker 5>And do you feel that way with Apple, that you're

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<v Speaker 5>okay that they're kind of slow going? I mean right,

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<v Speaker 5>We often remind everybody they weren't the first out with

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<v Speaker 5>a smartphone, but look at where they are today. So

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<v Speaker 5>how you understand this company, how it fits into the

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<v Speaker 5>broader kind of bigger tech world, if you will, slow

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<v Speaker 5>and steady okay for you.

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<v Speaker 7>Carol, here's the difference.

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<v Speaker 6>You're right that Apple's typically not the first to a

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<v Speaker 6>new product category, but they're also always the best. The iPhone,

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<v Speaker 6>it wasn't the first smartphone, but it blew everything before

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<v Speaker 6>it out of the water. You saw the same thing

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<v Speaker 6>with the iPod before it, the iPad after the iPhone.

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<v Speaker 6>You can even say the same thing about AirPods for

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<v Speaker 6>earbuds and the Apple Watch for smart watches. You saw

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<v Speaker 6>nothing today that's better than the competition. You saw nothing

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<v Speaker 6>today that's different from the competition except marketing and a

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<v Speaker 6>focus on privacy. Right, So that's the difference here. They're

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<v Speaker 6>not the first, but they're also not the best, and

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<v Speaker 6>they're not the most advance. They're here extremely late, and

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<v Speaker 6>they showed up to the party without a gift, right,

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<v Speaker 6>they didn't bring much new to the table here.

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<v Speaker 2>Who's doing what they want to be doing?

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<v Speaker 1>Mark?

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<v Speaker 2>But better right now?

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<v Speaker 7>Well, Google Open Ai.

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<v Speaker 6>Samsung's AI features were pretty impressive with the S twenty four,

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<v Speaker 6>and Apple's are pretty much in line with that.

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<v Speaker 7>Now.

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<v Speaker 6>The interesting part is they've really teased that this is

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<v Speaker 6>going to improve.

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<v Speaker 7>And get better over the next year or so.

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<v Speaker 6>We could be having this conversation one you're from now

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<v Speaker 6>in the series features and the AI functionality will be

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<v Speaker 6>so much better than.

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<v Speaker 7>This today right now.

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<v Speaker 6>This is also only starting in US English, so there's

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<v Speaker 6>a lot of market improvements that are going to need

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<v Speaker 6>to make to roll this out as well.

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<v Speaker 2>Hey, Mark gil Lorio over at d Davidson made the

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<v Speaker 2>point to us a little earlier about the and he

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<v Speaker 2>cited your work over the last few weeks about the

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<v Speaker 2>iPhone fifteen pro supporting the new features, and he said

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<v Speaker 2>this was before it was announced a little over an

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<v Speaker 2>hour ago. Had this could be like a moment with

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<v Speaker 2>the iPhone, the five G iPhone, and I think it

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<v Speaker 2>was was it the twelve mark the first iPhone that

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<v Speaker 2>did five G A sort of the precedent for a

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<v Speaker 2>big upgrade cycle as a result of a piece of

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<v Speaker 2>hardware that is not backwards compatible, software that's not backwards

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<v Speaker 2>compatible with older hardware. Do did we see anything today

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<v Speaker 2>that prompts people to go out and buy a new phone,

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<v Speaker 2>even if they have a fourteen or a not a

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<v Speaker 2>fifteen Pro, that will get them to buy new hardware.

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<v Speaker 6>Well, I think when they announced the iPhone sixteen, clearly

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<v Speaker 6>their central marketing point on the devices this fall is

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<v Speaker 6>going to be the AI features.

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<v Speaker 7>Right, The AI features.

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<v Speaker 6>Are going to come out alongside the iPhone sixteen. So

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<v Speaker 6>if you want these AI features, you're going to have

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<v Speaker 6>to get the sixteen unless you have a fifteen Pro already.

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<v Speaker 6>So I definitely think that this is going to be

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<v Speaker 6>a huge sales point and it's going to spurn upgrade cycle.

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<v Speaker 7>For sure.

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<v Speaker 6>People are going to want the AI features.

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<v Speaker 5>It's interesting, like I'm looking at our live blog and

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<v Speaker 5>just you know, we take after months of mystery over

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<v Speaker 5>Apple's AI strategy, took a step taken by nearly every

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<v Speaker 5>other tech company integrates some open AI models into your

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<v Speaker 5>products for features like text generation. To me, it just

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<v Speaker 5>is like all right, everybody you wanted think AI. You

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<v Speaker 5>got to keep thinking about open AI like that is

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<v Speaker 5>the leader. That's the company that everybody wants to kind

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<v Speaker 5>of play around with. I don't know, like, as you

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<v Speaker 5>look at AI and Apple going forward, is it something

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<v Speaker 5>that they can innovate on their own or they've got

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<v Speaker 5>to partner along with others at this point.

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<v Speaker 7>For now, they have to partner with others.

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<v Speaker 6>The hope internally is within a few years they could

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<v Speaker 6>you do this entirely on their own. I anticipate that

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<v Speaker 6>happening eventually. They need to get their large language models

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<v Speaker 6>up the snuff. The future of the company and the

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<v Speaker 6>future of their hardware really depends on it. So I

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<v Speaker 6>certainly expect them to upgrade their AI capabilities over time

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<v Speaker 6>and move away from these partnerships.

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<v Speaker 5>There's more stuff this week. As we were just talking

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<v Speaker 5>with our scarlet food and she's like, you know, it's

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<v Speaker 5>a whole week long thing. Is there anything more that

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<v Speaker 5>you are focusing on? There's more to come or this

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<v Speaker 5>was really kind of the big deal.

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<v Speaker 6>Well, it is a whole week thing, right, But the

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<v Speaker 6>rest of the week is labs and classes for developers

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<v Speaker 6>integrate the new features and APIs into their application.

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<v Speaker 7>So there's no more news coming.

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<v Speaker 2>Okay, So in terms of the news that that already came,

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<v Speaker 2>what isn't again? This is mark this is the Worldwide

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<v Speaker 2>Developers Conference. I mean, I think it's fair to say, typically,

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<v Speaker 2>with maybe the exception of last year when they unveiled

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<v Speaker 2>the Vision pro, typically this is really geared toward developers

0:10:19.720 --> 0:10:22.640
<v Speaker 2>and it doesn't necessarily make a ton of news outside

0:10:22.679 --> 0:10:25.960
<v Speaker 2>of the developer world. What do you think we'll see

0:10:25.960 --> 0:10:29.320
<v Speaker 2>from developers who are going to, you know, take advantage

0:10:29.360 --> 0:10:32.800
<v Speaker 2>of what Apple's offering in terms of tools to them.

0:10:33.120 --> 0:10:34.760
<v Speaker 6>Well, I think developers are going to be curious how

0:10:34.800 --> 0:10:37.600
<v Speaker 6>they can integrate AI into their applications with sort of

0:10:37.600 --> 0:10:40.040
<v Speaker 6>frameworks are going to be available to sort of aiify

0:10:40.160 --> 0:10:41.720
<v Speaker 6>their apps? Will they be able to use the new

0:10:41.720 --> 0:10:43.520
<v Speaker 6>writing tools, will they be able to use the new

0:10:43.559 --> 0:10:44.720
<v Speaker 6>image generation features?

0:10:44.800 --> 0:10:45.000
<v Speaker 7>Right?

0:10:45.280 --> 0:10:47.520
<v Speaker 6>And the answer to many of those questions is yes,

0:10:47.640 --> 0:10:50.320
<v Speaker 6>and it's going to We're really looking out to see

0:10:50.400 --> 0:10:54.079
<v Speaker 6>what types of new applications will be enabled by Apple

0:10:54.160 --> 0:10:57.160
<v Speaker 6>rolling out these AI features. I certainly think that there's

0:10:57.200 --> 0:10:58.960
<v Speaker 6>going to be a wave of new AI apps. There's

0:10:59.000 --> 0:11:00.679
<v Speaker 6>not going to be an AI app store, as some

0:11:00.720 --> 0:11:04.240
<v Speaker 6>have said, but you know, Apple's here integrating AI heavily

0:11:04.280 --> 0:11:06.840
<v Speaker 6>across its ecosystem, and that's a positive for the market.

0:11:07.000 --> 0:11:09.439
<v Speaker 2>Okay, speaking of the ecosystem, I mentioned Vision Pro. It's

0:11:09.480 --> 0:11:12.960
<v Speaker 2>been out, it's been announced for a year. Did we

0:11:12.960 --> 0:11:14.400
<v Speaker 2>get updates on Vision Pro today.

0:11:15.640 --> 0:11:19.120
<v Speaker 6>Yeah, so it's going international as we've been expecting. The

0:11:19.160 --> 0:11:22.600
<v Speaker 6>new Vision OS two point zero, Well, there wasn't a

0:11:22.600 --> 0:11:25.440
<v Speaker 6>lot to it. Some new gestures for opening control center

0:11:25.760 --> 0:11:28.360
<v Speaker 6>and opening your home screen, some upgrades to some of

0:11:28.360 --> 0:11:31.840
<v Speaker 6>their applications. You can airplay content into the Vision Pro,

0:11:32.679 --> 0:11:36.080
<v Speaker 6>some new environments, and the ability to see your keyboard

0:11:36.559 --> 0:11:39.120
<v Speaker 6>while typing if you're using a physical keyboard. That's all,

0:11:39.280 --> 0:11:42.080
<v Speaker 6>you know. Exciting, nothing breakthrough AHO, A bunch of little

0:11:42.120 --> 0:11:42.800
<v Speaker 6>catchup stuff.

0:11:42.840 --> 0:11:45.040
<v Speaker 5>All right, I have two last questions for you. Your

0:11:45.080 --> 0:11:47.160
<v Speaker 5>story that's out on the Bloomberg, which I highly recommend

0:11:47.160 --> 0:11:49.640
<v Speaker 5>everybody check out. This was kind of the setting up

0:11:49.640 --> 0:11:52.600
<v Speaker 5>but also the post. But it initially said Apple event

0:11:52.640 --> 0:11:54.280
<v Speaker 5>will show whether it can be a force in the

0:11:54.320 --> 0:11:59.400
<v Speaker 5>AI industry, Kennet, Did you get that? Did they show that?

0:11:59.480 --> 0:12:02.280
<v Speaker 6>Well, it can be a force in the AI industry

0:12:02.320 --> 0:12:05.280
<v Speaker 6>with the right partnerships, and they made the right partnerships

0:12:05.520 --> 0:12:07.920
<v Speaker 6>and with the right applications, and with their new frameworks,

0:12:07.920 --> 0:12:10.240
<v Speaker 6>they're hoping they enabled the right applications. So I'd say

0:12:10.240 --> 0:12:11.800
<v Speaker 6>the answer is equivocally yes.

0:12:11.840 --> 0:12:13.959
<v Speaker 5>All right, last question, you're sitting down with Tim Cook.

0:12:14.040 --> 0:12:17.120
<v Speaker 5>What's the number one question this after today's event?

0:12:18.559 --> 0:12:21.200
<v Speaker 7>What's the number one question for Tim Cook? Yeah?

0:12:21.240 --> 0:12:23.720
<v Speaker 6>Where are all the other breakthrough new features? How are

0:12:23.760 --> 0:12:26.560
<v Speaker 6>you going to get people to really buy these phones?

0:12:26.679 --> 0:12:30.240
<v Speaker 6>Where's the shake up to iOS? I mean, we're getting

0:12:30.240 --> 0:12:33.400
<v Speaker 6>Apple Intelligence, but the overall operating system still feels little stale.

0:12:33.760 --> 0:12:36.240
<v Speaker 2>Carol, I'm going to wager that Tim Cook probably has

0:12:36.280 --> 0:12:39.200
<v Speaker 2>a lot of questions for Mark Germatt based on Mark

0:12:39.240 --> 0:12:40.319
<v Speaker 2>supporting over the years.

0:12:40.440 --> 0:12:42.160
<v Speaker 5>Can we also ask him Mark, you know, did he

0:12:42.280 --> 0:12:45.120
<v Speaker 5>do Apple intelligence like the Bloomberg Intelligence? Was he looking

0:12:45.160 --> 0:12:46.520
<v Speaker 5>at us? Maybe he took a queue?

0:12:47.880 --> 0:12:50.440
<v Speaker 7>No, I think they just swapped artificial with Apple.

0:12:51.160 --> 0:12:53.880
<v Speaker 5>Just a marketing Well done, well done, listen, thank you

0:12:53.920 --> 0:12:55.839
<v Speaker 5>so much. We know you've been busy in the lead

0:12:55.920 --> 0:12:58.040
<v Speaker 5>up to this, so good to get some time with you.

0:12:58.160 --> 0:13:00.880
<v Speaker 5>Of course, he is Mark German, He's our Bloomberg newschief

0:13:00.880 --> 0:13:02.640
<v Speaker 5>technology correspond It be sure to check them out on

0:13:02.760 --> 0:13:05.080
<v Speaker 5>the Bloomberg terminal. Also at Bloomberg dot Com.

0:13:05.800 --> 0:13:09.320
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us

0:13:09.360 --> 0:13:12.600
<v Speaker 1>Live weekday afternoons from two to five pm Eastern Listen

0:13:12.640 --> 0:13:15.319
<v Speaker 1>on applecar Play and then brout Auto with a Bloomberg

0:13:15.360 --> 0:13:20.680
<v Speaker 1>Business app, or want us Live on YouTube.

0:13:22.000 --> 0:13:24.719
<v Speaker 5>Remember everybody, how we keep reminding you that a top year,

0:13:25.440 --> 0:13:28.400
<v Speaker 5>top risk for this year for investors and really kind

0:13:28.400 --> 0:13:32.000
<v Speaker 5>of the world more broadly, geopolitics and global elections. On that.

0:13:32.120 --> 0:13:36.320
<v Speaker 5>After crushing defeat in the parliament elections yesterday European Parliament

0:13:36.400 --> 0:13:41.120
<v Speaker 5>election yesterday, President Emmanuel Macron plunged France into political uncertainty

0:13:41.120 --> 0:13:45.000
<v Speaker 5>with a snap legislative ballot that restages his perennial battle

0:13:45.120 --> 0:13:48.160
<v Speaker 5>with far right rival Marine La penn So we are

0:13:48.200 --> 0:13:50.520
<v Speaker 5>watching this closely, but there's a lot more going on too.

0:13:50.440 --> 0:13:53.240
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, because the election result highlights the increasing rejection of

0:13:53.240 --> 0:13:56.160
<v Speaker 2>mainstream politics and left the credibility of the blocks two

0:13:56.200 --> 0:13:59.960
<v Speaker 2>most important leaders in tatters economics and politics. Carol continue

0:14:00.040 --> 0:14:03.240
<v Speaker 2>connect and drive outcomes they always have, but are today

0:14:03.280 --> 0:14:06.440
<v Speaker 2>increasingly upbending the status quo and the expected in driving

0:14:06.480 --> 0:14:08.400
<v Speaker 2>a populism wave around the world.

0:14:08.400 --> 0:14:10.760
<v Speaker 5>We're seeing it happen in real time with more on

0:14:10.800 --> 0:14:13.840
<v Speaker 5>the connectivity of it all. Let's bring in Bloomberg News

0:14:13.840 --> 0:14:18.280
<v Speaker 5>Global Economy reporter Enda Current he is in our DC bureau.

0:14:18.679 --> 0:14:21.840
<v Speaker 5>Elections around the globe, the rise and political uncertainty take

0:14:21.880 --> 0:14:24.320
<v Speaker 5>France over the weekend. Much has to do with global

0:14:24.320 --> 0:14:27.120
<v Speaker 5>citizens kind of having had enough of the way it

0:14:27.240 --> 0:14:31.000
<v Speaker 5>is and feeling like they are being left behind. That

0:14:31.040 --> 0:14:33.280
<v Speaker 5>we are seeing increasingly around the world.

0:14:34.240 --> 0:14:36.840
<v Speaker 8>Yeah, absolutely right, as you say, this was you know,

0:14:37.480 --> 0:14:39.400
<v Speaker 8>Pete up was the year of the elections anyway, and

0:14:39.440 --> 0:14:42.360
<v Speaker 8>it really is playing out that there is a commonality

0:14:42.440 --> 0:14:47.400
<v Speaker 8>of voters are resentful and they are punishing they're ruling governments.

0:14:47.480 --> 0:14:49.640
<v Speaker 8>Not in every case, of course, but in some of

0:14:49.720 --> 0:14:51.680
<v Speaker 8>the big cases. We had India last week not triggered

0:14:51.680 --> 0:14:54.880
<v Speaker 8>a big shock in financial markets. Now we have the

0:14:54.920 --> 0:14:58.560
<v Speaker 8>European Parliament elections over the weekend that swing to the right,

0:14:58.720 --> 0:15:02.720
<v Speaker 8>especially in France, triggering shockwaves in financial markets, especially because

0:15:02.800 --> 0:15:06.720
<v Speaker 8>mccrown is calling the legislative elections there as well. So

0:15:06.760 --> 0:15:10.640
<v Speaker 8>we are now seeing the shock risk of these elections

0:15:10.640 --> 0:15:13.640
<v Speaker 8>playing out, and a kind of a common underlying theme

0:15:14.080 --> 0:15:18.360
<v Speaker 8>that people are expressing their discontent with governments, even in

0:15:18.400 --> 0:15:21.280
<v Speaker 8>cases where broadly speaking, the economy is doing okay, which

0:15:21.280 --> 0:15:23.240
<v Speaker 8>you could argue for the case of France and India,

0:15:23.720 --> 0:15:26.840
<v Speaker 8>markets doing k but that's rightly wrongly not flowing down

0:15:26.840 --> 0:15:28.960
<v Speaker 8>to people on the ground and they're expressing their frustration

0:15:29.040 --> 0:15:29.880
<v Speaker 8>in these ballots.

0:15:30.080 --> 0:15:33.440
<v Speaker 2>So where would you say, and that discontent is coming from.

0:15:33.520 --> 0:15:37.080
<v Speaker 2>Does it have to do with individual's economic situation, Does

0:15:37.120 --> 0:15:39.400
<v Speaker 2>it have to do with inflation, Does it have to

0:15:39.440 --> 0:15:42.720
<v Speaker 2>do with immigration? Where are we hearing and seeing in

0:15:42.800 --> 0:15:45.080
<v Speaker 2>polls the discontent coming from.

0:15:45.640 --> 0:15:48.840
<v Speaker 8>Well, if you take France in the case there of

0:15:48.960 --> 0:15:51.960
<v Speaker 8>Jordan Barbell in the national rally the La Penn opposition

0:15:52.040 --> 0:15:55.800
<v Speaker 8>to Macron. During the European elections a common theme. There

0:15:55.960 --> 0:15:59.760
<v Speaker 8>was opposition to European trade policy, opposition to European climate policy,

0:16:00.120 --> 0:16:04.440
<v Speaker 8>and of course a harsher line on immigration, and that

0:16:04.520 --> 0:16:08.640
<v Speaker 8>of course feeding in to discontent among populists everywhere in

0:16:08.720 --> 0:16:11.760
<v Speaker 8>terms of the cost of living and economic pressures that

0:16:11.800 --> 0:16:15.760
<v Speaker 8>they're under. Even as headline economic growth looks okay, France

0:16:16.080 --> 0:16:19.680
<v Speaker 8>is doing relatively okay versus other parts of Europe. It's

0:16:19.720 --> 0:16:23.040
<v Speaker 8>a pro business agenda there. Under President mccron, it's been

0:16:23.080 --> 0:16:27.440
<v Speaker 8>seen as somewhat as a reasonable performer. Economic performance for France,

0:16:27.600 --> 0:16:30.200
<v Speaker 8>but obviously that's not transnding down to people on the ground,

0:16:30.200 --> 0:16:31.680
<v Speaker 8>and the same in India. By the way, we all know,

0:16:31.760 --> 0:16:35.440
<v Speaker 8>India is famous, this global star, economical performer, one of

0:16:35.440 --> 0:16:38.680
<v Speaker 8>the fastest growing in the world, an alternative to China.

0:16:38.760 --> 0:16:41.760
<v Speaker 8>For foreign investment in the markets they're booming. Everyone talking

0:16:41.760 --> 0:16:44.120
<v Speaker 8>about forign investment going into India. But obviously, when we

0:16:44.160 --> 0:16:47.200
<v Speaker 8>saw the election results, people on the ground unhappy, and

0:16:47.240 --> 0:16:48.520
<v Speaker 8>I think a lot of it is coming down to

0:16:48.600 --> 0:16:50.720
<v Speaker 8>its cost of living pressures. And of course you can

0:16:50.760 --> 0:16:53.920
<v Speaker 8>drop parallel with India western urban and some of the

0:16:53.960 --> 0:16:54.960
<v Speaker 8>mood in the US too.

0:16:55.640 --> 0:16:58.360
<v Speaker 5>So I have to say, when Tim and I are

0:16:58.440 --> 0:17:01.120
<v Speaker 5>preparing in our team or preparing for today's show, this

0:17:01.200 --> 0:17:04.440
<v Speaker 5>hour and really the next two hours that follow, We've

0:17:04.480 --> 0:17:08.320
<v Speaker 5>got Peter Goodman coming up later on. He's global economics

0:17:08.320 --> 0:17:09.760
<v Speaker 5>correspondent over at the New York Times. He's got a

0:17:09.760 --> 0:17:12.040
<v Speaker 5>book How the World Ran Out of Everything, and really

0:17:12.080 --> 0:17:14.680
<v Speaker 5>goes through some history lessons about kind of obviously what

0:17:14.720 --> 0:17:16.760
<v Speaker 5>happened during the pandemic, but really how we got to

0:17:16.800 --> 0:17:19.560
<v Speaker 5>that point where so much was made in one part

0:17:19.640 --> 0:17:23.720
<v Speaker 5>of the world, China specifically, but also how it was

0:17:23.760 --> 0:17:27.040
<v Speaker 5>all done on the backs of workers, and basically we

0:17:27.119 --> 0:17:30.320
<v Speaker 5>got rid of some really well paying jobs, middle class

0:17:30.560 --> 0:17:34.400
<v Speaker 5>working types of jobs, and two jobs that really paid

0:17:34.440 --> 0:17:36.920
<v Speaker 5>a lot less. And just why there are so many

0:17:36.920 --> 0:17:40.160
<v Speaker 5>individuals global citizens that are feeling kind of left out

0:17:40.680 --> 0:17:45.040
<v Speaker 5>despite the market growing, you know, the global economy growing,

0:17:45.200 --> 0:17:48.520
<v Speaker 5>and the wealthy getting wealthier. So you know, there's another

0:17:48.600 --> 0:17:51.800
<v Speaker 5>story that our team has put out by Chris Sansty

0:17:52.080 --> 0:17:55.520
<v Speaker 5>and looks at the Mexico election and talks about a

0:17:55.560 --> 0:17:57.920
<v Speaker 5>warning and this looks into the new economy, but talks

0:17:57.920 --> 0:18:00.800
<v Speaker 5>about populism can sometimes lead to results damage the very

0:18:00.800 --> 0:18:03.520
<v Speaker 5>people who are rightfully seeking their fair share. I do

0:18:03.600 --> 0:18:08.480
<v Speaker 5>wonder the pushback on globalization, the rise in populism, what

0:18:08.520 --> 0:18:12.600
<v Speaker 5>that might mean ultimately, do investors look at different markets

0:18:12.600 --> 0:18:15.840
<v Speaker 5>as investable not investable? I mean, what's that thinking and

0:18:16.119 --> 0:18:18.040
<v Speaker 5>how you and your team are thinking about that?

0:18:19.040 --> 0:18:21.119
<v Speaker 8>Absolutely right? I mean, this goes to the core of

0:18:21.160 --> 0:18:23.920
<v Speaker 8>why there is such a realignment going on in if

0:18:23.920 --> 0:18:26.040
<v Speaker 8>you want to call it, the Western industrialized world. That

0:18:26.119 --> 0:18:28.160
<v Speaker 8>discontent on the ground that you talk about their Carol

0:18:28.320 --> 0:18:32.720
<v Speaker 8>is forcing governments to either promote more industry at home

0:18:33.520 --> 0:18:38.120
<v Speaker 8>poor more subsidies or tax breaks to generate investment at home.

0:18:38.119 --> 0:18:41.000
<v Speaker 8>They're also looking at shaking up their supply lines for

0:18:41.160 --> 0:18:43.879
<v Speaker 8>basic goods up to more higher value added goods. So

0:18:43.960 --> 0:18:46.720
<v Speaker 8>there is a kind of very shuffling going on around

0:18:46.760 --> 0:18:50.480
<v Speaker 8>the world to partly address some of these issues. Now,

0:18:50.520 --> 0:18:52.480
<v Speaker 8>of course, that creates winners and losers, and that's where

0:18:52.480 --> 0:18:54.399
<v Speaker 8>the investors come into it is the winners are going

0:18:54.440 --> 0:18:56.880
<v Speaker 8>to be broadly speaking, the rich world who can afford

0:18:57.119 --> 0:19:00.520
<v Speaker 8>to either subsidize industry at home or can four to

0:19:00.600 --> 0:19:03.280
<v Speaker 8>shake up their supply lines, and they can attract investment

0:19:03.320 --> 0:19:04.879
<v Speaker 8>from other parts of the world. And the investors are

0:19:04.920 --> 0:19:07.800
<v Speaker 8>looking at those rich countries. And then the concern is

0:19:07.800 --> 0:19:10.399
<v Speaker 8>that the poorer countries, who may be benefited from globalization

0:19:10.440 --> 0:19:13.200
<v Speaker 8>in the first place, the emerging world can't compete on

0:19:13.240 --> 0:19:16.040
<v Speaker 8>the same level playing field. They won't be able to

0:19:16.080 --> 0:19:19.000
<v Speaker 8>attract investment in a way they once wore. But you

0:19:19.040 --> 0:19:21.880
<v Speaker 8>know that said broadly speaking, you know that there are

0:19:22.040 --> 0:19:25.960
<v Speaker 8>changes going on in global manufacturing, global supply lines, global investment.

0:19:26.240 --> 0:19:28.199
<v Speaker 8>But let's just say when it comes to manufacturing, at

0:19:28.280 --> 0:19:31.320
<v Speaker 8>least China and parts of the emerging world still offer

0:19:31.600 --> 0:19:35.160
<v Speaker 8>a fairly compelling model. They offer scale, they offer cheaper

0:19:35.200 --> 0:19:38.399
<v Speaker 8>workforces than the Western world. So you know this story,

0:19:38.440 --> 0:19:40.280
<v Speaker 8>while of are changes going on, it still has a

0:19:40.280 --> 0:19:42.880
<v Speaker 8>long way to go before before you could really call

0:19:43.080 --> 0:19:45.320
<v Speaker 8>an end of globalization as we've known over the last

0:19:45.320 --> 0:19:46.080
<v Speaker 8>twenty thirty years.

0:19:46.119 --> 0:19:47.720
<v Speaker 5>Say, but that's what I want to explore with you.

0:19:47.800 --> 0:19:50.080
<v Speaker 5>Like this idea of the cheaper workforce we keep lauding

0:19:50.119 --> 0:19:52.280
<v Speaker 5>it is like, that's such a great thing. You know,

0:19:52.359 --> 0:19:56.480
<v Speaker 5>we reduce costs, cheaper labor. That means profits go up

0:19:56.520 --> 0:19:59.359
<v Speaker 5>and shareholders are happy and we can do more difends

0:19:59.400 --> 0:20:01.840
<v Speaker 5>and buy back. So I do wonder. And then yet

0:20:02.040 --> 0:20:04.919
<v Speaker 5>workers on the ground are saying, Man, I'm just I

0:20:04.960 --> 0:20:07.199
<v Speaker 5>can't I can't make ends meet or not, you know,

0:20:07.280 --> 0:20:10.400
<v Speaker 5>because the jobs are just not either as high paying

0:20:10.440 --> 0:20:12.880
<v Speaker 5>as they used to do or there's so much pressure,

0:20:12.960 --> 0:20:16.760
<v Speaker 5>and I just I do wonder. Economically, you know, this

0:20:16.880 --> 0:20:19.399
<v Speaker 5>is resulting in kind of the political pushback that we're seeing.

0:20:20.240 --> 0:20:21.800
<v Speaker 8>No, it is because if you want to call it

0:20:21.840 --> 0:20:24.399
<v Speaker 8>the Western world for fragments, seg or the develop economy world,

0:20:25.000 --> 0:20:29.160
<v Speaker 8>they they cannot afford the kind of manufacturing and much

0:20:29.200 --> 0:20:31.000
<v Speaker 8>of the manufacturing that continues to be done in the

0:20:31.040 --> 0:20:33.160
<v Speaker 8>emerging world and in China in particular, and even where

0:20:33.240 --> 0:20:36.960
<v Speaker 8>wages do increase are increasing in China, it's still ultimately

0:20:37.000 --> 0:20:40.439
<v Speaker 8>more competitive to do businesses there, or in Mexico or

0:20:40.480 --> 0:20:42.480
<v Speaker 8>in Vietnam than I bring it back to say the

0:20:42.640 --> 0:20:45.239
<v Speaker 8>US or Paris, where you've got union loans, we've got

0:20:45.240 --> 0:20:47.880
<v Speaker 8>minimum wages, you've got all kinds of you know, rules

0:20:47.920 --> 0:20:50.879
<v Speaker 8>and regulations to pay a living wage. So that competitive

0:20:50.880 --> 0:20:54.200
<v Speaker 8>age still very much exists in favor of the emerging world.

0:20:54.320 --> 0:20:56.080
<v Speaker 8>And you can argue, of course, the rights and wrongs

0:20:56.080 --> 0:20:58.680
<v Speaker 8>with that, but multinationals aren't in a hurry to bring

0:20:58.720 --> 0:21:01.080
<v Speaker 8>back those kinds of high paying But don't forget other

0:21:01.119 --> 0:21:03.000
<v Speaker 8>factors that are played to. Automation is going to be a

0:21:03.040 --> 0:21:05.680
<v Speaker 8>factor in all of this that we'll see production broad

0:21:05.680 --> 0:21:07.399
<v Speaker 8>closer at home too, or in the years ahead.

0:21:07.560 --> 0:21:09.320
<v Speaker 2>Hey, and I'm wondering if we can look to the

0:21:09.320 --> 0:21:12.000
<v Speaker 2>results that we've seen in recent weeks with global elections

0:21:12.040 --> 0:21:15.439
<v Speaker 2>and perhaps reading into the future of our country in

0:21:15.480 --> 0:21:18.680
<v Speaker 2>the US. Here in our country, the United States, come November,

0:21:19.600 --> 0:21:21.200
<v Speaker 2>is there any way to sort of look at what's

0:21:21.200 --> 0:21:23.320
<v Speaker 2>happened around the world and get an understanding for the

0:21:23.320 --> 0:21:26.520
<v Speaker 2>way that things are moving Come November well, you.

0:21:26.520 --> 0:21:29.280
<v Speaker 8>Know, it's obviously idiosyncratic team. Everyone has their own story,

0:21:29.359 --> 0:21:31.840
<v Speaker 8>their own gripes, their own complaints. But you'd have to say,

0:21:32.720 --> 0:21:35.320
<v Speaker 8>you know, on the surface, at least even where countries

0:21:35.359 --> 0:21:37.840
<v Speaker 8>are having a pretty good run economically, at least on

0:21:37.880 --> 0:21:42.120
<v Speaker 8>a headline basis strong growth, strong investments, strong markets, that

0:21:42.240 --> 0:21:45.840
<v Speaker 8>is necessarily translating into a happy mood among voters and

0:21:45.320 --> 0:21:49.000
<v Speaker 8>that and that's creating discontent at the ballot box. I mean,

0:21:49.280 --> 0:21:51.199
<v Speaker 8>that's showing up in the polls in the US, for example,

0:21:51.280 --> 0:21:54.240
<v Speaker 8>people are citing economic and happiness and inflation. So that's

0:21:54.280 --> 0:21:57.640
<v Speaker 8>one a Crallery could draw with them. And then more broadly,

0:21:57.840 --> 0:22:00.240
<v Speaker 8>it's a tough time to be an incumbent in the

0:22:00.320 --> 0:22:03.880
<v Speaker 8>UK election. Look a front India's pressure on. Coleman's notubt

0:22:03.880 --> 0:22:04.199
<v Speaker 8>about it.

0:22:04.280 --> 0:22:05.480
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I was just going to say, Carol, when I

0:22:05.520 --> 0:22:09.000
<v Speaker 2>knew was talking about the Bloomberg News Morning Console polls

0:22:09.000 --> 0:22:11.080
<v Speaker 2>of swing state that's states that we've done here at

0:22:11.119 --> 0:22:15.840
<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg News, right about the fact that many voters in

0:22:15.880 --> 0:22:18.360
<v Speaker 2>these swing states. Do you think that Trump will lead

0:22:18.440 --> 0:22:19.720
<v Speaker 2>better when it comes to the economy.

0:22:19.840 --> 0:22:22.879
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, it's kind of interesting considering kind of the economic

0:22:22.920 --> 0:22:25.720
<v Speaker 5>backdrop but that's politics, and it makes it always very

0:22:25.760 --> 0:22:28.080
<v Speaker 5>interesting and as we've seen from some of the global

0:22:28.119 --> 0:22:32.399
<v Speaker 5>electric elections, a bit unpredictable to say the least. And

0:22:32.840 --> 0:22:35.119
<v Speaker 5>thank you so much covered what we were hoping to

0:22:35.160 --> 0:22:37.639
<v Speaker 5>do on this Monday. Bloomberg News Global Economy Report. End

0:22:37.640 --> 0:22:38.000
<v Speaker 5>of current.

0:22:39.520 --> 0:22:43.359
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Listen live

0:22:43.480 --> 0:22:46.680
<v Speaker 1>each weekday starting at two pm Eastern on applecar Play

0:22:46.680 --> 0:22:49.560
<v Speaker 1>and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can

0:22:49.560 --> 0:22:52.800
<v Speaker 1>also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New

0:22:52.880 --> 0:22:56.520
<v Speaker 1>York station, Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

0:22:58.440 --> 0:23:00.520
<v Speaker 2>Well, Carol put this on my radar a little earlier.

0:23:00.800 --> 0:23:03.320
<v Speaker 2>A main feature of the twenty twenty four labor market

0:23:03.720 --> 0:23:06.359
<v Speaker 2>is that fewer people are quitting their jobs. A lesser

0:23:06.440 --> 0:23:08.720
<v Speaker 2>known one. We knew that from the Jolts data as

0:23:08.760 --> 0:23:11.239
<v Speaker 2>it quits right right. A lesser known one is that

0:23:11.400 --> 0:23:13.320
<v Speaker 2>fewer are actually getting promoted.

0:23:13.359 --> 0:23:16.040
<v Speaker 5>It's really interesting. So that leaves what little room for

0:23:16.119 --> 0:23:18.520
<v Speaker 5>new workers to break through, as the ranks of employees

0:23:18.640 --> 0:23:21.000
<v Speaker 5>above them are staying in place, and it makes it

0:23:21.160 --> 0:23:23.720
<v Speaker 5>more difficult tim for young graduates to get their foot

0:23:23.760 --> 0:23:24.160
<v Speaker 5>in the door.

0:23:24.359 --> 0:23:26.959
<v Speaker 2>We got back with us. Janea senior policy advisor at

0:23:27.040 --> 0:23:29.199
<v Speaker 2>Working Nation. It's a media company that focuses on the

0:23:29.200 --> 0:23:32.760
<v Speaker 2>future of work. Jane also former Assistant Secretary of Employment

0:23:32.760 --> 0:23:36.360
<v Speaker 2>and Training in the Obama administration. She joins us from Arlington, Virginia. Jane,

0:23:36.359 --> 0:23:38.200
<v Speaker 2>how are you hey, Tim?

0:23:38.280 --> 0:23:38.560
<v Speaker 1>Good?

0:23:38.640 --> 0:23:40.000
<v Speaker 9>Nice to be back. Hi, Carol.

0:23:40.160 --> 0:23:42.000
<v Speaker 2>Hi, Yeah, it's good to have you back with us.

0:23:42.040 --> 0:23:42.200
<v Speaker 6>Hey.

0:23:42.200 --> 0:23:43.800
<v Speaker 2>I just want to start with the blow out jobs

0:23:43.840 --> 0:23:45.680
<v Speaker 2>number that we got last week. It came in above

0:23:45.760 --> 0:23:51.439
<v Speaker 2>all economists surveyed by Bloomberg expectations. We get that, and

0:23:51.480 --> 0:23:55.879
<v Speaker 2>then still based on surveys, people are not happy with

0:23:55.920 --> 0:23:57.720
<v Speaker 2>what they're doing at work and they're not happy with

0:23:57.800 --> 0:23:58.880
<v Speaker 2>the economy. What's going on.

0:24:00.240 --> 0:24:03.800
<v Speaker 9>I mean, look, obviously the economy's tightening slightly. It couldn't

0:24:03.800 --> 0:24:06.600
<v Speaker 9>stay where it was, you know, with with you know,

0:24:06.840 --> 0:24:10.800
<v Speaker 9>three jobs for everybody looking so it's tightening a little bit.

0:24:10.840 --> 0:24:13.840
<v Speaker 9>But you know, I think you're as usual, you know,

0:24:13.920 --> 0:24:17.880
<v Speaker 9>you two follow the information trail. People are not moving.

0:24:18.200 --> 0:24:20.480
<v Speaker 9>I mean, we saw all that stuff eighteen months ago

0:24:20.560 --> 0:24:23.200
<v Speaker 9>about people quitting and people. People are not moving now

0:24:23.520 --> 0:24:26.320
<v Speaker 9>and it's creating a real logjam. You know, we have

0:24:26.440 --> 0:24:29.560
<v Speaker 9>four million people leaving college this time of year, and

0:24:30.280 --> 0:24:33.320
<v Speaker 9>another million and a half leaving high school that want

0:24:33.320 --> 0:24:35.520
<v Speaker 9>to go right into the workforce. It's going to be

0:24:35.560 --> 0:24:36.879
<v Speaker 9>tough for the next few months.

0:24:36.960 --> 0:24:38.960
<v Speaker 5>I don't get it. It's just kind of wild, right,

0:24:39.040 --> 0:24:42.440
<v Speaker 5>Like we talk about a tight labor market, people need workers,

0:24:42.640 --> 0:24:46.439
<v Speaker 5>and yet right, it's just these weird kind of I

0:24:46.440 --> 0:24:49.479
<v Speaker 5>don't know, cross currents. It's hard to make sense to

0:24:49.520 --> 0:24:51.920
<v Speaker 5>some extent about what really is going on in the

0:24:51.960 --> 0:24:52.680
<v Speaker 5>labor market.

0:24:53.960 --> 0:24:56.439
<v Speaker 9>I mean, look, Carol, some of its geography. There are

0:24:56.480 --> 0:24:58.840
<v Speaker 9>all these jobs open, but they're in places where there

0:24:58.840 --> 0:25:02.880
<v Speaker 9>aren't people looking. Some of it's a skills mismatch, and

0:25:02.960 --> 0:25:04.960
<v Speaker 9>some of it I have to tell you, you know,

0:25:05.080 --> 0:25:09.639
<v Speaker 9>I like to like blame the automated software that's looking

0:25:09.680 --> 0:25:12.880
<v Speaker 9>at resumes. I think that businesses are missing a lot

0:25:12.880 --> 0:25:16.080
<v Speaker 9>of talented people because whatever they forgot to put in

0:25:16.119 --> 0:25:18.760
<v Speaker 9>their cover letter and on their resume isn't matching the

0:25:18.880 --> 0:25:21.920
<v Speaker 9>language in the job description. So they're not getting the job.

0:25:22.080 --> 0:25:24.840
<v Speaker 2>But does it work both ways? Does it work both ways?

0:25:24.840 --> 0:25:26.800
<v Speaker 2>I was talking to somebody who was doing some hiring

0:25:26.840 --> 0:25:28.720
<v Speaker 2>ahead of intern season, and she told me this is

0:25:28.760 --> 0:25:32.720
<v Speaker 2>a shocking number. They're basically thirty places for interns at

0:25:32.760 --> 0:25:35.600
<v Speaker 2>the organization that she works in. They got thousands of

0:25:35.680 --> 0:25:39.240
<v Speaker 2>applications Jane for those thirty spots, and I'm thinking to myself,

0:25:40.240 --> 0:25:42.199
<v Speaker 2>how are you getting so many applicants or people just

0:25:43.000 --> 0:25:45.760
<v Speaker 2>doing this automatically? Are they sending how does this work?

0:25:46.920 --> 0:25:47.120
<v Speaker 5>Yeah?

0:25:47.119 --> 0:25:50.600
<v Speaker 9>I mean I think I think people are really interested

0:25:50.720 --> 0:25:53.760
<v Speaker 9>in this paid internship thing. They realize that it's work

0:25:53.800 --> 0:25:57.280
<v Speaker 9>based learning at its best because they don't make a

0:25:57.320 --> 0:26:00.600
<v Speaker 9>long term commitment like in a registered apprenticeship probe. But

0:26:00.680 --> 0:26:03.760
<v Speaker 9>they're able to get in see if they like the employer,

0:26:03.880 --> 0:26:06.359
<v Speaker 9>see if they like the work. So it is really

0:26:06.400 --> 0:26:09.200
<v Speaker 9>hot right now to get a paid internship. I'm an

0:26:09.200 --> 0:26:11.840
<v Speaker 9>internship of any kind, but most people need the salary

0:26:11.920 --> 0:26:15.840
<v Speaker 9>to go along with it. But I understand, I mean,

0:26:15.880 --> 0:26:18.080
<v Speaker 9>you know, I hate I like business too much to

0:26:18.240 --> 0:26:21.159
<v Speaker 9>hand on them. But I do think, you know, I

0:26:21.240 --> 0:26:23.640
<v Speaker 9>know how conversome they have to keep their business going.

0:26:23.680 --> 0:26:26.119
<v Speaker 9>They don't have time to look at thousands of applications

0:26:26.320 --> 0:26:29.480
<v Speaker 9>for thirty open interns ships. You're right, Tim, I get that,

0:26:30.359 --> 0:26:30.760
<v Speaker 9>all right.

0:26:31.160 --> 0:26:34.800
<v Speaker 5>So I don't know what's that. You know, it's interesting.

0:26:35.400 --> 0:26:37.959
<v Speaker 5>One of the things I keep saying and forgive us

0:26:38.000 --> 0:26:40.840
<v Speaker 5>audience because I keep talking about Peter Goodman his new

0:26:40.840 --> 0:26:44.120
<v Speaker 5>book out How the World Ran out of Everything, And

0:26:44.520 --> 0:26:47.560
<v Speaker 5>you know, I keep thinking about the future workforce because

0:26:47.560 --> 0:26:52.119
<v Speaker 5>it seems like globalization has really, you know, increasingly gotten

0:26:52.200 --> 0:26:54.760
<v Speaker 5>rid of middle class, well paying jobs. It really allowed

0:26:54.840 --> 0:26:58.560
<v Speaker 5>people to have a good life, buy a home, support

0:26:58.560 --> 0:27:00.960
<v Speaker 5>their family, go on vacation, and that we've kind of

0:27:01.000 --> 0:27:04.679
<v Speaker 5>gotten rid of a lot of those jobs in the

0:27:04.680 --> 0:27:07.800
<v Speaker 5>middle sector, if you will, And I do wonder kind

0:27:07.840 --> 0:27:11.040
<v Speaker 5>of if we're not fertility rates are low people, you know,

0:27:11.840 --> 0:27:13.800
<v Speaker 5>where's the future workforce going to be? Is it going

0:27:13.840 --> 0:27:18.480
<v Speaker 5>to be robotic automated AI? Like I'm trying to understand

0:27:18.560 --> 0:27:20.080
<v Speaker 5>kind of where this all goes.

0:27:20.200 --> 0:27:24.840
<v Speaker 9>Ultimately, Well, AI is going to influence every job that's

0:27:24.920 --> 0:27:28.320
<v Speaker 9>out there, and it's also going to influence.

0:27:27.920 --> 0:27:30.880
<v Speaker 5>But how we keep saying like these big broad things

0:27:30.880 --> 0:27:34.360
<v Speaker 5>about AI, Jane, And I'm curious how you see specifically

0:27:34.400 --> 0:27:37.399
<v Speaker 5>that AI, which has been around for decades and already

0:27:37.400 --> 0:27:40.440
<v Speaker 5>impacts our world, how the next generation of AI and

0:27:40.560 --> 0:27:45.639
<v Speaker 5>large language models and so on, really change significantly the workforce.

0:27:46.520 --> 0:27:48.760
<v Speaker 9>So there's going to be some media changes that are

0:27:48.800 --> 0:27:51.959
<v Speaker 9>easy to see and some that are less easy to describe.

0:27:52.200 --> 0:27:55.360
<v Speaker 9>But let's look at PR firms, right. PR firms used

0:27:55.359 --> 0:27:59.920
<v Speaker 9>to hire lots of people, junior staff. People would come in,

0:28:00.200 --> 0:28:02.960
<v Speaker 9>they'd write the first draft of something for a customer,

0:28:03.040 --> 0:28:06.000
<v Speaker 9>and then somebody more senior would edit it and finesse

0:28:06.040 --> 0:28:08.280
<v Speaker 9>it because they know the customer better. Right now, people

0:28:08.320 --> 0:28:10.919
<v Speaker 9>are using generative AI to do that first draft. So

0:28:11.320 --> 0:28:14.200
<v Speaker 9>you see real slow down in hiring. You see a

0:28:14.400 --> 0:28:18.520
<v Speaker 9>real problem in coding. You know, AI can write code

0:28:18.560 --> 0:28:21.960
<v Speaker 9>faster than any human and basically all those people who

0:28:22.000 --> 0:28:25.080
<v Speaker 9>went to coding camps ten years ago are looking at

0:28:25.080 --> 0:28:27.280
<v Speaker 9>a very limited shelf life right now. Those are two

0:28:27.320 --> 0:28:28.080
<v Speaker 9>easy examples.

0:28:28.200 --> 0:28:30.399
<v Speaker 5>Isn't it amazing how we were telling everybody, Hey, you know,

0:28:30.560 --> 0:28:33.240
<v Speaker 5>learn to code, right, code to that coding school.

0:28:33.320 --> 0:28:36.119
<v Speaker 2>Yeah right, okay, so let's leave it on this last question.

0:28:36.359 --> 0:28:38.320
<v Speaker 2>What should we be teaching our kids? We have about

0:28:38.320 --> 0:28:39.120
<v Speaker 2>thirty seconds left.

0:28:39.960 --> 0:28:43.000
<v Speaker 5>What kind of a weekly Yeah? Should they go to college?

0:28:43.000 --> 0:28:44.920
<v Speaker 2>Should they get prompt AI? Prompt school?

0:28:46.040 --> 0:28:48.680
<v Speaker 9>Prompt engineers are getting laid off now, tim too, because

0:28:49.280 --> 0:28:51.320
<v Speaker 9>people realized you didn't have to have that title. But

0:28:51.680 --> 0:28:54.720
<v Speaker 9>you know, uniquely human skills. All the things that we've

0:28:54.760 --> 0:28:57.760
<v Speaker 9>been we've been talking about as employability skills learned the

0:28:57.800 --> 0:29:01.040
<v Speaker 9>problem solve critical thinking, learn to work in a team

0:29:01.440 --> 0:29:03.320
<v Speaker 9>learn sounds like a liberal arts education.

0:29:03.920 --> 0:29:07.480
<v Speaker 2>Finally, my history put to good Liberal arts actually does.

0:29:08.480 --> 0:29:08.720
<v Speaker 1>Yeah.

0:29:09.080 --> 0:29:12.080
<v Speaker 9>Some data analytics. Put some data analytics skills.

0:29:11.760 --> 0:29:12.880
<v Speaker 2>In there, all right, that part.

0:29:12.920 --> 0:29:14.680
<v Speaker 5>I don't have my daughter's kind of doing this kind

0:29:14.720 --> 0:29:17.240
<v Speaker 5>of stuff, all right for her? Good stuff? Yeah, all right.

0:29:17.320 --> 0:29:19.560
<v Speaker 5>Jane Notes, thank you so much, Senior policy advisor at

0:29:19.600 --> 0:29:21.880
<v Speaker 5>Working Nation, a media company that focuses on the future

0:29:21.920 --> 0:29:24.320
<v Speaker 5>of work. She was a former Assistant Secretary of Employment

0:29:24.320 --> 0:29:26.160
<v Speaker 5>and Training in the Obama administration.

0:29:27.840 --> 0:29:31.680
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Listen live

0:29:31.800 --> 0:29:34.680
<v Speaker 1>each weekday starting a two pm Eastern on Apple car

0:29:34.720 --> 0:29:37.680
<v Speaker 1>Play and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You

0:29:37.720 --> 0:29:41.000
<v Speaker 1>can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship

0:29:41.040 --> 0:29:44.800
<v Speaker 1>New York station, Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven.

0:29:44.560 --> 0:29:49.440
<v Speaker 2>Thirty Kerrol our colleague Darrell Deliver reporting last month that

0:29:49.640 --> 0:29:52.680
<v Speaker 2>three years after pandemic era funding led to a boom

0:29:52.680 --> 0:29:56.120
<v Speaker 2>in black owned businesses in the US, the cohort of

0:29:56.280 --> 0:29:59.280
<v Speaker 2>entrepreneurs seeking to expand is facing the same barriers to

0:29:59.360 --> 0:30:02.360
<v Speaker 2>capital that hamper generations of owners before them.

0:30:02.440 --> 0:30:04.720
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, we've seen this movie before. In twenty twenty three,

0:30:04.920 --> 0:30:07.680
<v Speaker 5>just thirty two percent of black owners were fully approved

0:30:07.680 --> 0:30:09.800
<v Speaker 5>for a loan or line of credit, compared to fifty

0:30:09.840 --> 0:30:12.520
<v Speaker 5>six percent of white entrepreneurs. That's according to a March

0:30:12.520 --> 0:30:15.960
<v Speaker 5>report from the twelve regional Federal Reserve Banks. Black owners

0:30:15.960 --> 0:30:18.880
<v Speaker 5>to him were also likely more likely to have to

0:30:18.960 --> 0:30:22.360
<v Speaker 5>use personal funds to address financial challenges, so tapping credit

0:30:22.360 --> 0:30:23.320
<v Speaker 5>cards and things like that.

0:30:23.880 --> 0:30:24.320
<v Speaker 8>Yeah.

0:30:24.360 --> 0:30:27.440
<v Speaker 2>One organization trying to address this is Momentous Capital. It's

0:30:27.440 --> 0:30:29.600
<v Speaker 2>a nonprofit and it just announced a one hundred and

0:30:29.640 --> 0:30:32.480
<v Speaker 2>seventy one million dollar fund to invest in small businesses

0:30:32.800 --> 0:30:37.600
<v Speaker 2>that are creating social impact in underinvested communities. Irael Nilsa

0:30:37.760 --> 0:30:41.240
<v Speaker 2>Lopez is managing director of Investments at Momentous Capital. She

0:30:41.320 --> 0:30:44.600
<v Speaker 2>joins us from Brooklyn Eran. Also, good to have you

0:30:44.840 --> 0:30:48.040
<v Speaker 2>with us this afternoon. I think the big question I

0:30:48.080 --> 0:30:50.680
<v Speaker 2>have is about the structure of the organization, because when

0:30:50.680 --> 0:30:55.800
<v Speaker 2>we talk about our companies or bodies that invest in

0:30:56.080 --> 0:30:58.600
<v Speaker 2>other companies by provide capital to them, so much we

0:30:58.640 --> 0:31:02.160
<v Speaker 2>talk about is in the for profit space. Give me

0:31:02.200 --> 0:31:06.320
<v Speaker 2>some details about the structure of Momentous Capital that allows

0:31:06.360 --> 0:31:08.200
<v Speaker 2>it to be a nonprofit that makes these type of

0:31:08.200 --> 0:31:11.800
<v Speaker 2>investments that's looking for return certainly.

0:31:11.960 --> 0:31:16.040
<v Speaker 10>So Momentus Capital is a brand of organizations which include

0:31:16.080 --> 0:31:19.800
<v Speaker 10>mission mission driven lenders, so it includes Capital Impact Partners

0:31:19.880 --> 0:31:24.160
<v Speaker 10>and includes CDC small Business lending. And these organizations have

0:31:24.280 --> 0:31:27.680
<v Speaker 10>over forty years of experience lending to small businesses and

0:31:27.720 --> 0:31:32.520
<v Speaker 10>also operating in the underserved community space. And so when

0:31:32.520 --> 0:31:35.440
<v Speaker 10>we speak about these organizations, yes they are nonprofit. However,

0:31:35.560 --> 0:31:39.240
<v Speaker 10>our fund, the Equitable Prosperity Fund, is actually a third

0:31:39.280 --> 0:31:43.240
<v Speaker 10>party fund that we came together alongside aligned investors. So

0:31:43.280 --> 0:31:46.640
<v Speaker 10>we have over twenty limited partners that make up this fund,

0:31:46.720 --> 0:31:50.640
<v Speaker 10>which does include Momentus Capital, but it also includes our

0:31:50.680 --> 0:31:53.440
<v Speaker 10>aligned partners for many years and also from new partners.

0:31:53.480 --> 0:31:57.000
<v Speaker 10>So we have financial institutions, we have high net worth individuals,

0:31:57.000 --> 0:32:02.160
<v Speaker 10>family offices, corporations, and also charitable foundation. So it's sort

0:32:02.200 --> 0:32:06.600
<v Speaker 10>of a blended capital structure which exists as its own fund.

0:32:07.000 --> 0:32:09.120
<v Speaker 10>That's one hundred and seventy one million dollar fund, and

0:32:09.160 --> 0:32:11.320
<v Speaker 10>that's the fund that is able to make these private

0:32:11.360 --> 0:32:13.680
<v Speaker 10>investments into these small businesses.

0:32:13.600 --> 0:32:16.240
<v Speaker 2>And talk a little bit about the expectation at least

0:32:16.240 --> 0:32:20.320
<v Speaker 2>timeline for returns. Here we're talking expectations are three to

0:32:20.360 --> 0:32:21.800
<v Speaker 2>five years to see a return.

0:32:22.840 --> 0:32:25.640
<v Speaker 10>Those are the individual investments and how they're structured. Yes,

0:32:26.000 --> 0:32:28.320
<v Speaker 10>the fund itself is your standard run of the mill,

0:32:28.440 --> 0:32:31.880
<v Speaker 10>ten year close ended private equity fund. The way which

0:32:31.920 --> 0:32:35.040
<v Speaker 10>we structure it with our investors, each investment as a

0:32:35.080 --> 0:32:37.760
<v Speaker 10>whole is structured to be along the three to five

0:32:37.840 --> 0:32:40.560
<v Speaker 10>year You know, nothing's written in stone, but that's where

0:32:40.560 --> 0:32:43.680
<v Speaker 10>we have found where we can provide growth capital in

0:32:43.760 --> 0:32:46.080
<v Speaker 10>an adequate amount of time, do also at the same

0:32:46.120 --> 0:32:48.840
<v Speaker 10>time liquid date and provide the return to the investor. Well,

0:32:48.840 --> 0:32:51.480
<v Speaker 10>at the same time, the growth capital itself can be

0:32:51.640 --> 0:32:53.880
<v Speaker 10>used to grow by the entrepreneur.

0:32:54.120 --> 0:32:56.120
<v Speaker 2>Explain that the type of capital that you offer you

0:32:56.160 --> 0:32:59.040
<v Speaker 2>said growth capital, but you also say it's non delutied.

0:32:59.200 --> 0:33:03.240
<v Speaker 2>So does that mean you're giving loans to these companies.

0:33:04.560 --> 0:33:06.680
<v Speaker 10>Yes, Actually, that's a great question. It's a question we

0:33:06.720 --> 0:33:10.400
<v Speaker 10>get almost every day. And so the next is the

0:33:10.720 --> 0:33:13.720
<v Speaker 10>reason for this fund is because we have found, again

0:33:13.960 --> 0:33:18.000
<v Speaker 10>the over four decades of experience, is that entrepreneurs are

0:33:18.120 --> 0:33:23.440
<v Speaker 10>oftentimes the structure of a traditional debt instrument is often

0:33:23.720 --> 0:33:27.600
<v Speaker 10>lacking for some of these entrepreneur Entrepreneurs that don't fit

0:33:27.640 --> 0:33:32.880
<v Speaker 10>the mole either is a personal guarantee, collateral based fixed

0:33:32.920 --> 0:33:36.400
<v Speaker 10>payments in payments that don't align with the businesses specific

0:33:36.480 --> 0:33:39.240
<v Speaker 10>cash flows. On the under hand, you have equity, and

0:33:39.280 --> 0:33:42.280
<v Speaker 10>then you have equity where you imagine you're an entrepreneur,

0:33:42.360 --> 0:33:44.959
<v Speaker 10>you've built your business to family business, and then you

0:33:45.000 --> 0:33:46.440
<v Speaker 10>sort of have to give a piece of it to

0:33:47.440 --> 0:33:52.840
<v Speaker 10>a new institutional provider capital provider. So our instrument lies

0:33:52.920 --> 0:33:56.800
<v Speaker 10>somewhere in the middle. So it's much more patient capital.

0:33:57.200 --> 0:34:00.880
<v Speaker 10>It's revenue based repayments, profit based finance, meaning we are

0:34:00.920 --> 0:34:03.920
<v Speaker 10>taking the growth risk alongside the business, and so we

0:34:03.960 --> 0:34:07.360
<v Speaker 10>structure our investments so that it's a revenue based sort

0:34:07.400 --> 0:34:10.200
<v Speaker 10>of repayment structure, so that if the business requires maybe

0:34:10.239 --> 0:34:12.520
<v Speaker 10>a couple of years for that capital to really begin

0:34:12.600 --> 0:34:15.880
<v Speaker 10>to leverage in returns, we're there with the business until

0:34:15.920 --> 0:34:18.719
<v Speaker 10>it does begin doing so. And then we don't take

0:34:18.719 --> 0:34:21.640
<v Speaker 10>any shriff. We have no ownership stake, we have a

0:34:21.680 --> 0:34:24.759
<v Speaker 10>preferred equity stake, and so you have What we try

0:34:24.800 --> 0:34:26.440
<v Speaker 10>to do is we try to give the best of

0:34:26.480 --> 0:34:29.720
<v Speaker 10>both worlds, and so it's not a traditional debt structure

0:34:29.719 --> 0:34:32.320
<v Speaker 10>where there is no personal guaranty, there are no collateral,

0:34:32.640 --> 0:34:37.680
<v Speaker 10>no fixed payments expected. However we're not there forever, we

0:34:37.719 --> 0:34:40.720
<v Speaker 10>have a structure that is a self liquidating in a sense,

0:34:40.760 --> 0:34:43.200
<v Speaker 10>so we also hope for our own investor's stake to

0:34:43.280 --> 0:34:47.080
<v Speaker 10>provide them that liquidity that also your traditional equity investments

0:34:47.120 --> 0:34:51.000
<v Speaker 10>don't provide, which is oftentimes a very heavy back ended

0:34:51.160 --> 0:34:51.799
<v Speaker 10>exit risk.

0:34:52.320 --> 0:34:54.319
<v Speaker 2>Ural Also, would you say that it I mean, would

0:34:54.320 --> 0:34:56.360
<v Speaker 2>it be fair to call it sort of in the

0:34:56.360 --> 0:34:57.480
<v Speaker 2>private credit universe?

0:34:58.200 --> 0:35:04.400
<v Speaker 10>Is a payable right, It's certainly a payable yes, I

0:35:04.400 --> 0:35:07.640
<v Speaker 10>would say, we'd like to say it's it's an instrument. Well,

0:35:07.680 --> 0:35:10.680
<v Speaker 10>we don't like to call it alone all because ultimately

0:35:10.719 --> 0:35:14.080
<v Speaker 10>there is it's an open ended redemption period. The redemption

0:35:14.200 --> 0:35:18.440
<v Speaker 10>period is defined by when we do receive these these returns.

0:35:18.600 --> 0:35:20.640
<v Speaker 10>So if it takes the company a little bit longer

0:35:20.680 --> 0:35:23.600
<v Speaker 10>than that five years, that's just the way we structure

0:35:23.640 --> 0:35:25.879
<v Speaker 10>the instrument. So we are there to make sure that

0:35:25.960 --> 0:35:28.600
<v Speaker 10>we benefit and we are repaid when the company is

0:35:28.640 --> 0:35:31.200
<v Speaker 10>inspect doing well with our capital.

0:35:31.360 --> 0:35:33.600
<v Speaker 5>So just so that I understand, So then what's typically

0:35:33.600 --> 0:35:36.680
<v Speaker 5>the return to investors, and then what's the cost to

0:35:36.800 --> 0:35:40.319
<v Speaker 5>those that are borrowing or partnering up with you and

0:35:40.360 --> 0:35:41.720
<v Speaker 5>getting the inflation of capital.

0:35:42.520 --> 0:35:45.480
<v Speaker 10>Yeah, the return we're targeting, it's a market return. So

0:35:45.520 --> 0:35:48.600
<v Speaker 10>we are targeting commercial returns and I would say, without

0:35:48.600 --> 0:35:51.719
<v Speaker 10>getting too specific, of course, to it for our investors.

0:35:52.280 --> 0:35:56.719
<v Speaker 10>And the cost is somewhere along between the I would

0:35:56.719 --> 0:36:00.880
<v Speaker 10>say subordinated debt and equity sort of expectations. And the

0:36:00.960 --> 0:36:04.880
<v Speaker 10>reason for that is because of the highly subordinate nature

0:36:04.960 --> 0:36:05.719
<v Speaker 10>of our instrument.

0:36:05.880 --> 0:36:06.839
<v Speaker 3>What we want to do with.

0:36:06.800 --> 0:36:10.160
<v Speaker 10>The instrument is not just provide the capital, but also

0:36:10.400 --> 0:36:14.879
<v Speaker 10>crowd in additional capital that maybe needed. So the use

0:36:14.920 --> 0:36:18.080
<v Speaker 10>of our funds is for growth, but ultimately these companies

0:36:18.120 --> 0:36:22.960
<v Speaker 10>will similarly have working capital needs or just other continued

0:36:23.000 --> 0:36:25.400
<v Speaker 10>funding needs, and so we're not there to take up

0:36:25.440 --> 0:36:29.719
<v Speaker 10>any sort of asset planes or collateral planes. And so

0:36:30.120 --> 0:36:32.440
<v Speaker 10>what we would like to do is have other lenders

0:36:32.480 --> 0:36:34.920
<v Speaker 10>look at the company and say, well, we have some

0:36:35.080 --> 0:36:38.680
<v Speaker 10>level of comfort that there's this institutional investor in there,

0:36:38.880 --> 0:36:42.800
<v Speaker 10>and also that they have become subordinate to any senior lending.

0:36:43.160 --> 0:36:46.600
<v Speaker 10>And so we're there to provide senior lenders with some comfort.

0:36:47.440 --> 0:36:50.160
<v Speaker 10>And so you can imagine the risk return profile of

0:36:50.200 --> 0:36:51.400
<v Speaker 10>that being somewhere in the middle.

0:36:51.520 --> 0:36:53.479
<v Speaker 5>Give us an idea. We've got about a minute left

0:36:53.640 --> 0:36:55.759
<v Speaker 5>of some of the companies that you've invested in, what's

0:36:55.800 --> 0:36:59.840
<v Speaker 5>the typical size that a lender or borrow or excuse

0:36:59.840 --> 0:37:03.040
<v Speaker 5>me needs give us an idea and what type of

0:37:03.320 --> 0:37:04.640
<v Speaker 5>businesses are we talking about?

0:37:05.480 --> 0:37:11.279
<v Speaker 10>Yeah, so we would like to target investments, particularly that

0:37:11.320 --> 0:37:16.800
<v Speaker 10>serve underserved communities, but particularly we're focused on improving access

0:37:16.840 --> 0:37:19.719
<v Speaker 10>to healthcare and improving access to healthy foods. So one

0:37:19.719 --> 0:37:23.640
<v Speaker 10>of our investments is a a healthy food distributor that

0:37:23.760 --> 0:37:28.440
<v Speaker 10>works with diverse farmers in Virginia and distributes healthy foods

0:37:28.480 --> 0:37:32.520
<v Speaker 10>to underserved populations in Washington, DC. So that's one of

0:37:32.520 --> 0:37:35.120
<v Speaker 10>our investments. Another one of investments is a medical image

0:37:35.160 --> 0:37:39.640
<v Speaker 10>and company where our growth investment was used to grow

0:37:39.800 --> 0:37:45.279
<v Speaker 10>and develop a teles scan for maternal health screenings in

0:37:45.320 --> 0:37:48.760
<v Speaker 10>healthcare deserts. So the typical size of our investments tends

0:37:48.760 --> 0:37:52.200
<v Speaker 10>to be between three or five million, which does translate

0:37:52.239 --> 0:37:54.680
<v Speaker 10>to companies that would begin with maybe a four million

0:37:54.680 --> 0:37:56.480
<v Speaker 10>dollar revenue size.

0:37:56.719 --> 0:37:59.640
<v Speaker 5>Do all of them survive? Just got about fifteen seconds?

0:37:59.680 --> 0:38:00.400
<v Speaker 5>Do they make it?

0:38:00.520 --> 0:38:00.719
<v Speaker 3>Yeah?

0:38:00.840 --> 0:38:03.880
<v Speaker 10>I mean, listen, our portfolio is healthy today. We we

0:38:04.120 --> 0:38:06.920
<v Speaker 10>just closed, but we have about two years in so

0:38:07.000 --> 0:38:08.720
<v Speaker 10>our cooling's doing well so far.

0:38:09.440 --> 0:38:12.840
<v Speaker 2>And Elsa Lopez, Managing director of Investments over at Momentous Capital,

0:38:12.920 --> 0:38:15.359
<v Speaker 2>joining us from New York. Thank you so much.

0:38:15.800 --> 0:38:22.200
<v Speaker 1>I'm brother Marco, a journal How about you let me drive?

0:38:22.440 --> 0:38:23.919
<v Speaker 8>Oh no, no, no, no, who's going?

0:38:25.520 --> 0:38:29.359
<v Speaker 1>Alright? Please, I'll do the gravel. Let's wait, I want

0:38:29.360 --> 0:38:37.840
<v Speaker 1>to drive. It's a good question. This is the drive

0:38:37.920 --> 0:38:41.920
<v Speaker 1>to the clothes do well round? Should it on? On

0:38:42.160 --> 0:38:44.160
<v Speaker 1>Blueberg Radio? All right, TikTok?

0:38:44.200 --> 0:38:47.239
<v Speaker 5>Everybody, jest about thirteen minutes left, just under thirteen minutes

0:38:47.320 --> 0:38:50.399
<v Speaker 5>left in today's trading. We've got equities near just off

0:38:50.400 --> 0:38:53.400
<v Speaker 5>their best levels of the session. And you heard Charlie

0:38:53.440 --> 0:38:56.880
<v Speaker 5>breaking down some of our focal points. You've got yields.

0:38:56.920 --> 0:39:00.560
<v Speaker 5>Certainly they have moved up coming off of that Fridays report.

0:39:00.640 --> 0:39:03.880
<v Speaker 5>So that's kind of our backdrop, macro backdrop. As we

0:39:03.920 --> 0:39:06.480
<v Speaker 5>are counting Dallas than forty eight hours away from the

0:39:06.480 --> 0:39:07.320
<v Speaker 5>next FED decision.

0:39:07.360 --> 0:39:08.560
<v Speaker 2>What are you going to count down after that?

0:39:08.760 --> 0:39:11.640
<v Speaker 5>I don't know, You know me, you'll find something ning.

0:39:13.560 --> 0:39:17.239
<v Speaker 2>Hey, that chuckling you here is a polite chuckle from Carolschlife.

0:39:17.280 --> 0:39:20.240
<v Speaker 2>She's chief investment officer over at the Low Family office.

0:39:20.239 --> 0:39:22.600
<v Speaker 2>She's here in the studio right now. Good to see you.

0:39:22.640 --> 0:39:23.120
<v Speaker 1>How are you.

0:39:23.239 --> 0:39:25.360
<v Speaker 4>It's great to be here. It's lovely to be in

0:39:25.400 --> 0:39:27.320
<v Speaker 4>New York. I love the energy.

0:39:27.360 --> 0:39:28.000
<v Speaker 2>What do you think of that?

0:39:28.160 --> 0:39:28.520
<v Speaker 5>Right now?

0:39:28.640 --> 0:39:31.799
<v Speaker 4>I love the energy? And actually I was astounded at

0:39:31.800 --> 0:39:35.000
<v Speaker 4>the airport last night in Mini. It was no Minneapolis.

0:39:35.160 --> 0:39:38.120
<v Speaker 4>It was so busy. And every airport I've been in,

0:39:39.160 --> 0:39:41.719
<v Speaker 4>except for Milwaukee last week, every airport I've been in,

0:39:41.800 --> 0:39:44.520
<v Speaker 4>it has been packed. Every plane's been packed. So it's

0:39:45.320 --> 0:39:48.640
<v Speaker 4>positive for our year end expectation that we actually see

0:39:48.640 --> 0:39:50.840
<v Speaker 4>the economy firmer by your end.

0:39:51.160 --> 0:39:53.880
<v Speaker 2>So are you are you using that anecdotal data to

0:39:54.239 --> 0:39:56.280
<v Speaker 2>sort of inform the way you're thinking about the economy.

0:39:56.360 --> 0:39:59.400
<v Speaker 4>I think it helps contribute, But so do conversations with

0:39:59.440 --> 0:40:02.640
<v Speaker 4>our commercial bankers, sort of conversations with my clients who

0:40:02.640 --> 0:40:05.760
<v Speaker 4>are still active business owners in a variety of different

0:40:06.440 --> 0:40:11.600
<v Speaker 4>parts of this economy, from basic manufacturing, so they're impacted

0:40:11.640 --> 0:40:16.800
<v Speaker 4>by tariffs, by they were impacted definitely by trying to

0:40:16.840 --> 0:40:20.640
<v Speaker 4>get imports in through the port's import you know, we've

0:40:20.680 --> 0:40:22.040
<v Speaker 4>got all kinds of stuff.

0:40:22.120 --> 0:40:24.560
<v Speaker 5>Okay, So, like I said, our audience is going to

0:40:24.600 --> 0:40:26.200
<v Speaker 5>hate us at this point because since we've been on

0:40:26.239 --> 0:40:28.319
<v Speaker 5>air since two o'clock. All we keep talking about is

0:40:28.320 --> 0:40:30.239
<v Speaker 5>this book by Peter Goodman, How the World Ran out

0:40:30.239 --> 0:40:34.000
<v Speaker 5>of Everything, But it really taps into globalization and kind

0:40:34.040 --> 0:40:35.879
<v Speaker 5>of where we are, and then it kind of gets

0:40:35.920 --> 0:40:38.520
<v Speaker 5>into why a lot of workers don't necessarily feel good

0:40:38.560 --> 0:40:41.960
<v Speaker 5>because either their jobs they don't have them anymore, they

0:40:42.000 --> 0:40:44.920
<v Speaker 5>were they were good paying jobs. Take the audio industry,

0:40:45.040 --> 0:40:47.719
<v Speaker 5>and then maybe that's why you see some of the

0:40:47.719 --> 0:40:51.640
<v Speaker 5>political polls or elections globally play out like they are exactly.

0:40:51.640 --> 0:40:55.720
<v Speaker 4>There's such a disconnect because you know, back from decades

0:40:55.719 --> 0:40:57.560
<v Speaker 4>ago when we were all reading about the world is

0:40:57.600 --> 0:41:00.319
<v Speaker 4>flat and the globalization and all the FP and A departments,

0:41:00.360 --> 0:41:03.359
<v Speaker 4>we're telling everybody to outsource, outs ors, outsource right and

0:41:03.400 --> 0:41:06.719
<v Speaker 4>thinking and forgetting about the second and third impacts of that,

0:41:06.800 --> 0:41:09.799
<v Speaker 4>which is where, oh jeez, if the consumer decides they

0:41:09.920 --> 0:41:13.000
<v Speaker 4>like blue not purple, then it's months and months and

0:41:13.040 --> 0:41:15.400
<v Speaker 4>months to get it back over here. And there's a

0:41:15.440 --> 0:41:17.319
<v Speaker 4>lot of people that got left in the dust. And

0:41:17.360 --> 0:41:19.320
<v Speaker 4>it's and I think when you look at the Harris

0:41:19.320 --> 0:41:22.160
<v Speaker 4>Pool in terms of the people that think the markets.

0:41:21.960 --> 0:41:22.960
<v Speaker 2>I can't stop talking about this.

0:41:23.640 --> 0:41:24.719
<v Speaker 4>They think the market's down.

0:41:24.800 --> 0:41:25.880
<v Speaker 5>They what do you do with that.

0:41:26.239 --> 0:41:29.279
<v Speaker 4>I think the biggest thing we do with that is

0:41:30.000 --> 0:41:33.680
<v Speaker 4>we get younger people engaged. And because you've got two

0:41:33.680 --> 0:41:37.279
<v Speaker 4>different contingents, you've got the baby boom driving politics, but

0:41:37.320 --> 0:41:41.320
<v Speaker 4>you've got millennials and gen z, which are bigger populations together,

0:41:41.440 --> 0:41:45.000
<v Speaker 4>all turning thirty five ish wanting to buy homes which

0:41:45.000 --> 0:41:48.960
<v Speaker 4>they can't afford, you know, without a co sign by

0:41:49.160 --> 0:41:51.239
<v Speaker 4>mom and dad, and they can't pay off.

0:41:51.239 --> 0:41:53.880
<v Speaker 5>See co sign on the school loans and then you

0:41:53.920 --> 0:41:55.960
<v Speaker 5>co sign on the house and then you like, I mean,

0:41:56.000 --> 0:41:56.720
<v Speaker 5>it's kind of crazy.

0:41:56.840 --> 0:41:58.680
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I just want to jump in real quick. If

0:41:58.680 --> 0:42:00.919
<v Speaker 2>people don't know the Harris Pool that I'm talking about

0:42:01.000 --> 0:42:04.040
<v Speaker 2>that Carol just mentioned, it's a Hair's poll for the

0:42:04.040 --> 0:42:07.600
<v Speaker 2>Guardian shows that fifty five percent believe the economy is shrinking.

0:42:08.040 --> 0:42:09.040
<v Speaker 2>It's a troubling sign.

0:42:09.160 --> 0:42:10.480
<v Speaker 4>Markets are down, yeah.

0:42:10.560 --> 0:42:12.680
<v Speaker 2>Forty nine percent believe the S and B. Veenan's stock

0:42:12.719 --> 0:42:14.680
<v Speaker 2>market index is down for the year. That the index

0:42:14.680 --> 0:42:17.319
<v Speaker 2>went up twenty four percent last year and it's up

0:42:17.400 --> 0:42:19.200
<v Speaker 2>more than twelve percent this year. This was as of

0:42:19.239 --> 0:42:21.000
<v Speaker 2>May twenty second, when the Guardian came out with this,

0:42:21.080 --> 0:42:23.759
<v Speaker 2>And forty nine percent believe that the unemployment rate is

0:42:23.760 --> 0:42:25.799
<v Speaker 2>at a fifty year high, though the unemployment rate has

0:42:25.840 --> 0:42:27.840
<v Speaker 2>been under four percent, a year fifty year low. This

0:42:27.880 --> 0:42:29.759
<v Speaker 2>again coming from The Guardian. They teamed up with the

0:42:29.760 --> 0:42:30.759
<v Speaker 2>Harris Poll last month for.

0:42:31.040 --> 0:42:34.080
<v Speaker 4>This wast it's because so much of the population has

0:42:34.120 --> 0:42:36.440
<v Speaker 4>been left behind and that outsourcing and now we have

0:42:36.480 --> 0:42:38.759
<v Speaker 4>a shot at bringing some of it back here. In

0:42:38.840 --> 0:42:42.960
<v Speaker 4>terms of manufacturing infrastructure, one of the interesting anecdotes I

0:42:43.040 --> 0:42:46.799
<v Speaker 4>picked up is that unibonded issuance is the highest in

0:42:46.840 --> 0:42:49.640
<v Speaker 4>the first year to date as it's been since here

0:42:49.680 --> 0:42:50.640
<v Speaker 4>early twenty tens.

0:42:50.680 --> 0:42:54.120
<v Speaker 5>Interesting stuff coming back and needing to build things out.

0:42:54.040 --> 0:42:58.359
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, which means schools, roads, bridges and so if you're

0:42:58.520 --> 0:43:02.640
<v Speaker 4>pulling the funds in in the last five months that

0:43:02.680 --> 0:43:05.840
<v Speaker 4>has yet to be put into the ground or people

0:43:05.920 --> 0:43:08.640
<v Speaker 4>hired to build those. So I mean a lot of

0:43:08.680 --> 0:43:11.360
<v Speaker 4>our basic jobs. We have to rethink our economy in

0:43:11.400 --> 0:43:13.200
<v Speaker 4>general because you've got AI on the one side, but

0:43:13.239 --> 0:43:16.839
<v Speaker 4>we also have huge need for welders and electricians and

0:43:17.040 --> 0:43:19.239
<v Speaker 4>skilled workers to run the plants that we're going to

0:43:19.280 --> 0:43:21.680
<v Speaker 4>have because these aren't going to be the old These

0:43:21.680 --> 0:43:24.200
<v Speaker 4>aren't going to be our grandfather's manufacturing plants. They're going

0:43:24.239 --> 0:43:27.880
<v Speaker 4>to be new manufacturing plants with fewer tech enabled people.

0:43:28.239 --> 0:43:29.839
<v Speaker 5>So what does that mean, Like you mentioned you've been

0:43:29.840 --> 0:43:33.040
<v Speaker 5>talking to commercial bankers that you work with business owners,

0:43:33.040 --> 0:43:36.560
<v Speaker 5>what do the business owners say about, Okay, how if

0:43:36.600 --> 0:43:40.080
<v Speaker 5>we are doing more things our supply chain back home,

0:43:40.400 --> 0:43:42.400
<v Speaker 5>it's going to be a more expensive supply chain, I

0:43:42.400 --> 0:43:46.680
<v Speaker 5>would assume. So when we think about that cost side

0:43:46.680 --> 0:43:50.680
<v Speaker 5>to their equation trying to run profitable businesses, and I

0:43:50.680 --> 0:43:52.960
<v Speaker 5>think on the public market side of things, where investors

0:43:52.960 --> 0:43:56.160
<v Speaker 5>care about things like buybacks and dividends, the cost equation

0:43:56.280 --> 0:43:58.840
<v Speaker 5>change is like, how does the investment environment change?

0:43:59.120 --> 0:44:01.239
<v Speaker 4>Well, the interest thing is is if you look at

0:44:01.239 --> 0:44:04.040
<v Speaker 4>a long term chart of margins, they're coming off of

0:44:04.160 --> 0:44:06.439
<v Speaker 4>historic eys and they've been at highs for a very

0:44:06.440 --> 0:44:08.600
<v Speaker 4>long period of time. These aren't the margins we had

0:44:08.640 --> 0:44:11.120
<v Speaker 4>when we were a manufacturing dominant.

0:44:10.680 --> 0:44:13.520
<v Speaker 5>Society benefiting by globalization exactly.

0:44:13.200 --> 0:44:15.680
<v Speaker 4>Well, benefiting by globalization and technology.

0:44:15.800 --> 0:44:17.839
<v Speaker 5>Okay, And so to the extent.

0:44:17.520 --> 0:44:19.439
<v Speaker 4>That we can get AI in there and figured out

0:44:19.520 --> 0:44:23.799
<v Speaker 4>how to work smarter in those factories. Yet in the

0:44:23.920 --> 0:44:28.000
<v Speaker 4>long run, our suspicion is it that margins don't have

0:44:28.080 --> 0:44:30.799
<v Speaker 4>to be two hit In the short run, it's tough

0:44:30.800 --> 0:44:33.120
<v Speaker 4>to be a public company as opposed to a private company,

0:44:33.160 --> 0:44:35.680
<v Speaker 4>because a private company you can do those sorts of investments,

0:44:35.719 --> 0:44:39.239
<v Speaker 4>rearrange your business, and then go public if you want

0:44:39.280 --> 0:44:41.759
<v Speaker 4>once you've done that. But it's tough for because investors

0:44:41.760 --> 0:44:46.360
<v Speaker 4>do demand that quarter to quarter, so we need CEOs. Actually,

0:44:46.800 --> 0:44:49.399
<v Speaker 4>if they could get together and say, no, here's our

0:44:49.440 --> 0:44:52.720
<v Speaker 4>long term vision because a lot of our lot of countries.

0:44:52.760 --> 0:44:55.360
<v Speaker 4>You take a country like China that can plan for

0:44:55.400 --> 0:44:57.440
<v Speaker 4>the long term and trash rarnings, well.

0:44:57.400 --> 0:44:59.400
<v Speaker 2>We know shareholders are notoriously patient.

0:45:00.200 --> 0:45:00.879
<v Speaker 7>We'll see that.

0:45:01.320 --> 0:45:04.279
<v Speaker 5>But that's the thing, like I do wonder. First of all,

0:45:04.440 --> 0:45:06.920
<v Speaker 5>we Tim and I keep hearing where there's so much

0:45:06.960 --> 0:45:10.600
<v Speaker 5>money in the private markets that it's like highly recommending

0:45:10.960 --> 0:45:14.000
<v Speaker 5>younger companies to just stay private because they can benefit.

0:45:14.200 --> 0:45:17.040
<v Speaker 5>So that it makes me wonder from what we do

0:45:17.120 --> 0:45:19.600
<v Speaker 5>on a regular basis in a big way is cover

0:45:19.680 --> 0:45:22.239
<v Speaker 5>the public markets. It makes me wonder about like the

0:45:22.280 --> 0:45:23.640
<v Speaker 5>future of the public markets.

0:45:24.600 --> 0:45:28.360
<v Speaker 4>I suspect you'll get you may not have a ninety

0:45:28.360 --> 0:45:30.520
<v Speaker 4>five to two thousand kind of a rusher in nineteen

0:45:30.560 --> 0:45:33.480
<v Speaker 4>eighty two to eighty three sort of IPO boom, but

0:45:33.560 --> 0:45:36.480
<v Speaker 4>I would suspect sooner or later, even that most patient

0:45:36.560 --> 0:45:39.719
<v Speaker 4>capital gets itchy in good markets to see it out.

0:45:39.800 --> 0:45:42.160
<v Speaker 4>We'll see the test because you know, the so called

0:45:42.200 --> 0:45:45.720
<v Speaker 4>IPO window is hopefully opening. We're wishing it would open

0:45:46.080 --> 0:45:46.839
<v Speaker 4>and ready to do.

0:45:46.840 --> 0:45:48.719
<v Speaker 5>Good equity folks would like for it to open.

0:45:48.719 --> 0:45:48.879
<v Speaker 6>It.

0:45:48.960 --> 0:45:51.080
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, and there are so many signs that it's opening

0:45:51.160 --> 0:45:53.399
<v Speaker 4>a little bit, there are, And I mean it all

0:45:53.400 --> 0:45:55.360
<v Speaker 4>depends on if you can get those deals out and

0:45:55.400 --> 0:45:59.560
<v Speaker 4>they generate more deals. I mean investors are anxious for

0:45:59.600 --> 0:45:59.840
<v Speaker 4>that to have.

0:46:00.480 --> 0:46:02.200
<v Speaker 5>Do you want to ask about can we ask about Apple?

0:46:02.280 --> 0:46:03.840
<v Speaker 5>Do you have a thought? I know you don't. I

0:46:03.880 --> 0:46:05.719
<v Speaker 5>don't know how specific you can get and drill down,

0:46:05.800 --> 0:46:08.680
<v Speaker 5>but you know we've been focused on Apple AI. There's

0:46:08.680 --> 0:46:11.320
<v Speaker 5>still a you know, one of the largest market cap companies.

0:46:11.360 --> 0:46:13.520
<v Speaker 5>I don't know, is there a technology thought. I don't

0:46:13.520 --> 0:46:14.759
<v Speaker 5>know where you want to go and how specific you

0:46:14.800 --> 0:46:15.319
<v Speaker 5>can drill well.

0:46:15.320 --> 0:46:18.759
<v Speaker 4>I think the interesting thing is is like everyone wants

0:46:18.800 --> 0:46:21.520
<v Speaker 4>to know what exactly this is going to do for

0:46:21.600 --> 0:46:23.880
<v Speaker 4>me and how excited it's going to get did But

0:46:24.000 --> 0:46:25.840
<v Speaker 4>did I know I was going to become addicted to

0:46:25.840 --> 0:46:28.799
<v Speaker 4>my iPhone before they introduced it? No? I mean I

0:46:28.920 --> 0:46:30.240
<v Speaker 4>want that kind of system.

0:46:30.239 --> 0:46:31.520
<v Speaker 2>I thought it was just for foc calls.

0:46:31.520 --> 0:46:33.279
<v Speaker 4>But I also do want and I was listening to

0:46:33.320 --> 0:46:35.359
<v Speaker 4>you earlier and I saw those same memes go through

0:46:35.360 --> 0:46:37.840
<v Speaker 4>my Instagram, because I actually have trained my Instagram to

0:46:37.880 --> 0:46:39.759
<v Speaker 4>feed me funny stuff to make me laugh.

0:46:41.120 --> 0:46:41.520
<v Speaker 6>But the.

0:46:43.200 --> 0:46:46.640
<v Speaker 4>Meme about please unload my dishwasher and do the clothes,

0:46:46.719 --> 0:46:50.080
<v Speaker 4>not paint my pictures and write my music and do

0:46:50.160 --> 0:46:52.880
<v Speaker 4>that stuff. But we want something like that, But I

0:46:52.880 --> 0:46:55.879
<v Speaker 4>also want something to organize my day, and totally to that,

0:46:56.040 --> 0:46:59.320
<v Speaker 4>I need. I need to arrange for twelve people to

0:46:59.400 --> 0:47:02.000
<v Speaker 4>Mexico and spring use it on the phone and figure

0:47:02.000 --> 0:47:03.359
<v Speaker 4>it out and get me the room I need.

0:47:03.480 --> 0:47:06.600
<v Speaker 2>Okay, But you know it's funny you say that because

0:47:06.960 --> 0:47:08.879
<v Speaker 2>we're then we only have about a minute left that

0:47:09.080 --> 0:47:11.279
<v Speaker 2>we're all addicted to our phones, but we're also all

0:47:11.280 --> 0:47:12.560
<v Speaker 2>probably trying to use them less.

0:47:14.239 --> 0:47:17.719
<v Speaker 4>I'm trying to use it strategically in terms of there's

0:47:17.920 --> 0:47:20.239
<v Speaker 4>certain certain things that I have on because it's the

0:47:20.280 --> 0:47:22.360
<v Speaker 4>only way I get pictures of the grandkids or invites

0:47:22.400 --> 0:47:24.799
<v Speaker 4>to their birthday parties. And then there's other things in

0:47:24.840 --> 0:47:28.479
<v Speaker 4>there that I train there specifically too, because I don't

0:47:28.520 --> 0:47:30.719
<v Speaker 4>hover over certain things, and I do hover over other

0:47:30.800 --> 0:47:32.400
<v Speaker 4>things to train it to make me laugh.

0:47:33.040 --> 0:47:35.960
<v Speaker 5>So yeah, I actually put it down. I actually put

0:47:36.000 --> 0:47:38.320
<v Speaker 5>it down on the charger, especially on like weekends, unless

0:47:38.360 --> 0:47:40.600
<v Speaker 5>I know that got something work related or something, you know,

0:47:40.640 --> 0:47:42.759
<v Speaker 5>and it's not that my family. Usually I'm with most

0:47:42.760 --> 0:47:44.560
<v Speaker 5>of the family that I most care about.

0:47:44.719 --> 0:47:46.919
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, you have to be very intentional about it, though,

0:47:46.960 --> 0:47:49.480
<v Speaker 4>because there is an addictive component.

0:47:49.760 --> 0:47:51.200
<v Speaker 2>I think I think she said of a filter for

0:47:51.239 --> 0:47:55.200
<v Speaker 2>my text messages because when I text you, Carol Master,

0:47:56.600 --> 0:47:59.560
<v Speaker 2>I'm surrounded by Carol's right now.

0:48:00.200 --> 0:48:01.800
<v Speaker 5>Like check your phone, check your messages.

0:48:02.120 --> 0:48:05.360
<v Speaker 2>I'm like sending her an email, check your text, or

0:48:05.400 --> 0:48:06.920
<v Speaker 2>sending our text, check your email.

0:48:07.800 --> 0:48:09.160
<v Speaker 5>Oh my god, it's complicated.

0:48:09.320 --> 0:48:09.520
<v Speaker 1>Love.

0:48:09.680 --> 0:48:12.279
<v Speaker 2>Just love Carol, Carol, all love.

0:48:12.960 --> 0:48:14.839
<v Speaker 5>All Carol's are great. I'm just gonna put it out there.

0:48:15.120 --> 0:48:16.920
<v Speaker 5>I'm really fun to have you in. I hope you

0:48:17.040 --> 0:48:18.600
<v Speaker 5>enjoy your time in New York and look forward to

0:48:18.600 --> 0:48:21.239
<v Speaker 5>next time. Great to Ketche, thanks for having me Carol's lives.

0:48:21.239 --> 0:48:23.880
<v Speaker 5>She's chief investment Officer over at BIMO Family Office, joining

0:48:23.920 --> 0:48:25.920
<v Speaker 5>us in our Interactive Brokers studio.

0:48:26.080 --> 0:48:29.279
<v Speaker 1>This is the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. I'll a little

0:48:29.560 --> 0:48:33.680
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0:48:33.800 --> 0:48:36.960
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0:48:37.040 --> 0:48:40.400
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0:48:40.400 --> 0:48:43.399
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0:48:43.400 --> 0:48:47.040
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