1 00:00:00,400 --> 00:00:03,200 Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast. 2 00:00:11,760 --> 00:00:12,920 Speaker 2: What's going on? Everybody? 3 00:00:12,960 --> 00:00:16,360 Speaker 1: I Am Dane Martinez, the Spitting Statistician, and welcome back 4 00:00:16,520 --> 00:00:20,239 Speaker 1: to another episode from the Action Network podcast on the 5 00:00:20,320 --> 00:00:24,200 Speaker 1: Experts Guide on how to Bet. Today we're talking about 6 00:00:24,200 --> 00:00:27,000 Speaker 1: the NFL and when it comes to bet in the NFL, 7 00:00:27,480 --> 00:00:30,600 Speaker 1: who better to have explained it to us than our guy, 8 00:00:30,960 --> 00:00:33,840 Speaker 1: the Prime Minister of degenerate Nation? 9 00:00:34,240 --> 00:00:36,320 Speaker 2: Are guy stucky? What's going on? Brother man? How are 10 00:00:36,360 --> 00:00:36,879 Speaker 2: you hey? 11 00:00:36,920 --> 00:00:37,519 Speaker 3: What's going on there? 12 00:00:37,800 --> 00:00:37,839 Speaker 1: Like? 13 00:00:37,880 --> 00:00:39,479 Speaker 3: Football is coming is the most important thing. 14 00:00:39,520 --> 00:00:43,800 Speaker 1: I'm excited, No, absolutely, and football is king and everybody 15 00:00:43,840 --> 00:00:44,440 Speaker 1: bets football. 16 00:00:44,440 --> 00:00:45,199 Speaker 2: I mean literally. 17 00:00:45,240 --> 00:00:48,920 Speaker 1: I remember myself back in middle school organizing a pickam 18 00:00:48,960 --> 00:00:52,040 Speaker 1: pool collecting five dollars from everybody, telling people don't forget 19 00:00:52,080 --> 00:00:54,200 Speaker 1: to fill in the points from Monday night football. So 20 00:00:54,240 --> 00:00:58,280 Speaker 1: it is pretty much germane to our existence in this country. 21 00:00:58,280 --> 00:01:00,720 Speaker 1: But I gotta ask you a little bit about your 22 00:01:00,760 --> 00:01:04,600 Speaker 1: background in betting football. You know, I've seen you've made hundreds, 23 00:01:04,600 --> 00:01:07,479 Speaker 1: if not thousands of bets, But tell us a little 24 00:01:07,480 --> 00:01:10,280 Speaker 1: bit about your background. Why are you the expert we're 25 00:01:10,280 --> 00:01:11,000 Speaker 1: talking to today? 26 00:01:12,000 --> 00:01:17,440 Speaker 3: Yeah, I've been betting the NFL going on almost every 27 00:01:17,840 --> 00:01:25,120 Speaker 3: every weekend for right about twenty years and I'm in 28 00:01:25,160 --> 00:01:28,280 Speaker 3: my mid thirties now. So I started back in high 29 00:01:28,319 --> 00:01:34,919 Speaker 3: school like you, and I was awful at first, like everybody, 30 00:01:35,080 --> 00:01:39,840 Speaker 3: and it took a lot of time, effort, energy, and 31 00:01:39,959 --> 00:01:42,360 Speaker 3: you get smarter over time, you start to understand the markets. 32 00:01:42,360 --> 00:01:45,480 Speaker 3: We'll get into a lot of this, but become obviously 33 00:01:45,520 --> 00:01:47,760 Speaker 3: a lot better over the years. In the app going, 34 00:01:47,840 --> 00:01:50,560 Speaker 3: this will be I think my sixth year betting the 35 00:01:50,640 --> 00:01:53,280 Speaker 3: NFL on the app, I have about overall in the 36 00:01:53,280 --> 00:01:57,240 Speaker 3: app about ninety two hundred bets eleven hundred in the NFL. 37 00:01:57,680 --> 00:02:00,000 Speaker 3: It's about over about, you know, over one hundred weeks 38 00:02:00,400 --> 00:02:04,280 Speaker 3: five around six percent ROI. But the way that I 39 00:02:04,320 --> 00:02:07,920 Speaker 3: started betting in the NFL was actually I mean I 40 00:02:07,960 --> 00:02:10,320 Speaker 3: played football since I was like running around with like 41 00:02:10,360 --> 00:02:12,160 Speaker 3: a chicken with its head cut off and play when 42 00:02:12,200 --> 00:02:16,440 Speaker 3: you're like six years old and playing like offensive tackle. 43 00:02:16,520 --> 00:02:18,639 Speaker 3: I think I was my first position, which was funny, 44 00:02:20,120 --> 00:02:24,560 Speaker 3: and but I love football. And then even in I 45 00:02:24,560 --> 00:02:29,519 Speaker 3: remember in like seventh eighth grade, my dad's office he 46 00:02:29,600 --> 00:02:33,000 Speaker 3: had these uh would have his office pool, Yeah, and 47 00:02:33,000 --> 00:02:36,840 Speaker 3: you picked up you picked every game and I would 48 00:02:36,960 --> 00:02:39,440 Speaker 3: always do that every year, and I think I I 49 00:02:39,600 --> 00:02:43,560 Speaker 3: won it one year when I was in a freshman 50 00:02:43,600 --> 00:02:45,600 Speaker 3: in high school. And then whenever I would call my 51 00:02:45,680 --> 00:02:49,320 Speaker 3: dad's office, there was a guy that used to pick 52 00:02:49,400 --> 00:02:51,480 Speaker 3: up that worked under him, and he would ask me. 53 00:02:51,680 --> 00:02:52,800 Speaker 3: He was like, who do you like in this game? 54 00:02:52,960 --> 00:02:55,400 Speaker 3: You like this game? Just complete degenerate. It's funny. I 55 00:02:55,440 --> 00:02:58,919 Speaker 3: actually ran into him, this is maybe twenty five years 56 00:02:59,000 --> 00:03:02,440 Speaker 3: later at a wedding recently, and he got my number 57 00:03:02,720 --> 00:03:06,799 Speaker 3: and he's texted me again for plays. He's like five 58 00:03:06,880 --> 00:03:10,200 Speaker 3: years old. It's funny. So yeah, I started out like 59 00:03:10,440 --> 00:03:13,919 Speaker 3: office pools and then opening up, like I think back 60 00:03:13,960 --> 00:03:17,040 Speaker 3: then it was my first account was probably a boatdog account, 61 00:03:18,639 --> 00:03:23,359 Speaker 3: and I made lots of beginner mistakes, which we'll get 62 00:03:23,360 --> 00:03:28,919 Speaker 3: into today. But I was obsessed early on with with pleasers, 63 00:03:29,000 --> 00:03:33,400 Speaker 3: which are like the opposite of teasers, and you you know, 64 00:03:33,440 --> 00:03:35,680 Speaker 3: instead of like getting six points to a side, you 65 00:03:35,680 --> 00:03:39,560 Speaker 3: would give up six points, just a terrible bet. But 66 00:03:39,600 --> 00:03:43,720 Speaker 3: they were very tempting, just like parlays and all the 67 00:03:43,720 --> 00:03:47,440 Speaker 3: stuff that beginner betters do. And yeah, and then I 68 00:03:47,440 --> 00:03:51,920 Speaker 3: got into finance, got my CFA medsasine Finance and worked 69 00:03:51,920 --> 00:03:55,960 Speaker 3: in as a in the derivatives field for about eight 70 00:03:56,000 --> 00:03:58,760 Speaker 3: to ten years before I left to help start Action, 71 00:03:59,120 --> 00:04:05,040 Speaker 3: and that background, statistical background, mathematical background obviously helped with 72 00:04:05,120 --> 00:04:08,720 Speaker 3: modeling and other things, refining my process over time. But 73 00:04:08,840 --> 00:04:13,520 Speaker 3: it is a labor of love and it's you never 74 00:04:13,800 --> 00:04:15,640 Speaker 3: the beautiful thing about it. And this is with any sport. 75 00:04:15,680 --> 00:04:17,640 Speaker 3: You're never going to master it. No, you're never going 76 00:04:17,720 --> 00:04:21,119 Speaker 3: to be able to hit one hundred percent. There's always 77 00:04:21,160 --> 00:04:23,800 Speaker 3: room for improvement, and the markets are always getting more efficient, 78 00:04:23,880 --> 00:04:25,480 Speaker 3: so it's a kind of a cat and mouse game. 79 00:04:27,400 --> 00:04:32,159 Speaker 3: So yeah, I love the challenge of it, especially the NFL, 80 00:04:32,200 --> 00:04:34,120 Speaker 3: one of the most efficient markets in the world, and 81 00:04:34,880 --> 00:04:36,599 Speaker 3: here we are today and hopefully we can have a 82 00:04:36,600 --> 00:04:37,240 Speaker 3: winning season. 83 00:04:37,520 --> 00:04:39,159 Speaker 2: Yeah, No, it's really interesting, stucky. 84 00:04:39,200 --> 00:04:39,359 Speaker 3: You know. 85 00:04:39,440 --> 00:04:43,400 Speaker 1: I also remember playing in my mom's office pool back 86 00:04:43,480 --> 00:04:45,800 Speaker 1: in the day and then checking on you know, Sunday night, 87 00:04:45,839 --> 00:04:47,560 Speaker 1: being like, oh, I'm ten and two, I might be 88 00:04:47,680 --> 00:04:51,520 Speaker 1: live for Monday night football, you know. So absolutely the 89 00:04:51,640 --> 00:04:55,000 Speaker 1: kind of history that goes into it and the love 90 00:04:55,240 --> 00:04:57,040 Speaker 1: of it. And like you, I was a middle school 91 00:04:57,040 --> 00:04:59,440 Speaker 1: math teacher, right, so I'm trying to find ways to 92 00:04:59,600 --> 00:05:03,440 Speaker 1: bring that engaging content even to students. Well, you have 93 00:05:03,560 --> 00:05:06,279 Speaker 1: obviously been doing it for a long time, just like 94 00:05:06,440 --> 00:05:08,159 Speaker 1: all the folks here at Action. 95 00:05:08,240 --> 00:05:09,479 Speaker 2: I mean, we've been doing this for years. 96 00:05:09,480 --> 00:05:11,120 Speaker 1: We've been running around with some of the sounds from 97 00:05:11,160 --> 00:05:13,320 Speaker 1: under the ground, but suddenly now they uttered it loud 98 00:05:13,320 --> 00:05:15,119 Speaker 1: in front of a crowd, like frunting is a loud 99 00:05:15,200 --> 00:05:17,640 Speaker 1: You mentioned, people are all talking about how, oh they 100 00:05:17,640 --> 00:05:20,440 Speaker 1: got a ninety percent hit rate, right, and come buy 101 00:05:20,520 --> 00:05:22,760 Speaker 1: my picks, And that's absolutely trash. 102 00:05:23,080 --> 00:05:25,440 Speaker 2: So we need to give people real talk. 103 00:05:25,520 --> 00:05:28,200 Speaker 1: You know, you mentioned how you weren't the best at 104 00:05:28,240 --> 00:05:31,920 Speaker 1: it to begin right, you made some of those mistakes. 105 00:05:32,000 --> 00:05:34,719 Speaker 1: Let's go back to that. For people who are novices 106 00:05:34,800 --> 00:05:37,799 Speaker 1: in this game or trying to start to bet the NFL, 107 00:05:37,800 --> 00:05:40,640 Speaker 1: which is the sharpest market out there, what are some 108 00:05:40,720 --> 00:05:43,120 Speaker 1: of the things people can do to actually start to 109 00:05:43,320 --> 00:05:44,560 Speaker 1: learn and take their lumps. 110 00:05:45,560 --> 00:05:48,240 Speaker 3: Yeah, there's there's a lot that you can do as 111 00:05:48,520 --> 00:05:53,440 Speaker 3: an inexperience, better to at least not lose as much 112 00:05:53,440 --> 00:05:56,200 Speaker 3: as you've been losing and potentially, you know, win a 113 00:05:56,200 --> 00:05:58,960 Speaker 3: little bit of money in a very difficult market. I mean, 114 00:05:58,960 --> 00:06:00,880 Speaker 3: the first thing you get is take advantage of a 115 00:06:00,920 --> 00:06:03,880 Speaker 3: lot of the softer opportunities out there. And what I 116 00:06:03,880 --> 00:06:06,320 Speaker 3: mean by that is there what number one you have to. 117 00:06:06,480 --> 00:06:07,839 Speaker 3: You have to have a lot of outs. So the 118 00:06:07,960 --> 00:06:10,000 Speaker 3: more outs that you get, the more books that you have, 119 00:06:10,360 --> 00:06:13,440 Speaker 3: the more advantageous you're gonna have chopping around. The number 120 00:06:13,440 --> 00:06:15,600 Speaker 3: one piece of advice I'll give to anyone that adds 121 00:06:15,680 --> 00:06:18,000 Speaker 3: up over time, getting the best number that you have 122 00:06:18,040 --> 00:06:20,240 Speaker 3: available to you. And now in the US there are 123 00:06:20,240 --> 00:06:23,960 Speaker 3: so many bonus softwares. Promotions take advantage of all of those. 124 00:06:24,440 --> 00:06:26,400 Speaker 3: But there are books that aren't as sharp as others. 125 00:06:26,400 --> 00:06:31,120 Speaker 3: They're slower to react to news, to injury news, and 126 00:06:31,200 --> 00:06:34,920 Speaker 3: you know, there's there's a lot of you know, there's 127 00:06:34,960 --> 00:06:37,400 Speaker 3: not It's not like back in the day where you 128 00:06:37,440 --> 00:06:41,000 Speaker 3: could have some you would have a lot more Roague lines. 129 00:06:41,040 --> 00:06:43,080 Speaker 3: Now everything kind of moves in unison. But some books 130 00:06:43,080 --> 00:06:45,839 Speaker 3: are slower to move, and you can have different prices 131 00:06:45,839 --> 00:06:48,320 Speaker 3: for various reasons. That adds up over time. So having 132 00:06:48,320 --> 00:06:51,359 Speaker 3: as many books as you can is very advantageous for 133 00:06:51,400 --> 00:06:54,799 Speaker 3: many reasons. Also take advantage of some of the softer markets, 134 00:06:54,800 --> 00:06:57,400 Speaker 3: the prop markets. I only have about fifty profits over 135 00:06:57,480 --> 00:06:59,960 Speaker 3: five years. I don't really bet player props prop market 136 00:07:00,080 --> 00:07:00,720 Speaker 3: are blowing up. 137 00:07:00,920 --> 00:07:04,000 Speaker 1: You're kind of acknowledging that you don't dabble in some 138 00:07:04,040 --> 00:07:06,720 Speaker 1: of the markets that might actually be softer and rite 139 00:07:06,720 --> 00:07:07,200 Speaker 1: for the picking. 140 00:07:07,680 --> 00:07:09,880 Speaker 3: There's so much more popular now, it's probably something that 141 00:07:09,920 --> 00:07:13,440 Speaker 3: I should reconsider. I'm it's just I don't really have 142 00:07:13,480 --> 00:07:15,160 Speaker 3: time to do it. It's not my area specialties with 143 00:07:15,200 --> 00:07:18,040 Speaker 3: player projections. But there's so many people out there. At 144 00:07:18,040 --> 00:07:21,160 Speaker 3: our company alone, there's a couple that are just masters 145 00:07:21,160 --> 00:07:24,960 Speaker 3: at this. I'll mention Sean Kerner, who is just the 146 00:07:25,080 --> 00:07:28,120 Speaker 3: king of NFL player props. And when he puts one out, 147 00:07:28,320 --> 00:07:30,280 Speaker 3: you know, for like a Monday night football game, it'll 148 00:07:30,280 --> 00:07:32,640 Speaker 3: be published and then everyone rushes to bet it and 149 00:07:32,680 --> 00:07:34,880 Speaker 3: it'll move. You know, let's say it's like under five 150 00:07:34,960 --> 00:07:36,920 Speaker 3: yards two and a half yards, it'll move. You have 151 00:07:36,960 --> 00:07:39,320 Speaker 3: five yards right away. So these things you have to 152 00:07:39,320 --> 00:07:41,920 Speaker 3: be like following injury news player props. If you want 153 00:07:41,960 --> 00:07:44,320 Speaker 3: to follow someone, you have to be It takes time 154 00:07:44,520 --> 00:07:46,400 Speaker 3: and you have to be dedicated. You got to put 155 00:07:46,440 --> 00:07:49,600 Speaker 3: notifications on and then again you have to have various 156 00:07:49,600 --> 00:07:52,400 Speaker 3: out so you can say, okay, under this, have all 157 00:07:52,400 --> 00:07:54,440 Speaker 3: your books up, let me see where you know. We're 158 00:07:54,440 --> 00:07:56,680 Speaker 3: going to have a player prop tool where you can 159 00:07:56,720 --> 00:07:59,160 Speaker 3: see where the best line is for you and that 160 00:07:59,480 --> 00:08:01,520 Speaker 3: will add up over time. But that's a great way 161 00:08:01,560 --> 00:08:04,960 Speaker 3: to build your bank role as a better now and 162 00:08:05,520 --> 00:08:08,120 Speaker 3: books don't They can't spend time on all every single 163 00:08:08,160 --> 00:08:11,240 Speaker 3: player prop and but it's just an offering. They do that. 164 00:08:11,360 --> 00:08:14,120 Speaker 3: They do these same game parlays, which are I think 165 00:08:14,160 --> 00:08:16,960 Speaker 3: that you should probably avoid from an ed perspective. But 166 00:08:17,200 --> 00:08:19,480 Speaker 3: it's just a menu of offering and they're gonna go 167 00:08:19,560 --> 00:08:21,400 Speaker 3: book at how much you can bet on them. There's 168 00:08:21,400 --> 00:08:23,880 Speaker 3: a reason props you can bet a lot less because 169 00:08:23,880 --> 00:08:27,080 Speaker 3: they're softer. So is a novice better. You know, if 170 00:08:27,120 --> 00:08:30,240 Speaker 3: you want to build a player prop model, you're probably 171 00:08:30,280 --> 00:08:32,480 Speaker 3: not doing that since you probably have a full time job, 172 00:08:32,480 --> 00:08:34,480 Speaker 3: but you can follow people out there on the Action 173 00:08:34,600 --> 00:08:36,840 Speaker 3: Network at that just crush player props, and that's how 174 00:08:36,880 --> 00:08:39,160 Speaker 3: you can build a bankroll. You know, you want to 175 00:08:39,160 --> 00:08:40,959 Speaker 3: bet early in the week on opening you want to 176 00:08:40,960 --> 00:08:43,040 Speaker 3: bet opening lines which are softer in the NFL. Then 177 00:08:43,040 --> 00:08:45,920 Speaker 3: say on game day when you have you know, after 178 00:08:46,000 --> 00:08:47,840 Speaker 3: limits open up later in the week and you have 179 00:08:48,559 --> 00:08:51,360 Speaker 3: just absolute whales. I mean, you can bet a lot 180 00:08:51,480 --> 00:08:53,800 Speaker 3: a lot of money on the NFL are going to 181 00:08:53,880 --> 00:08:58,280 Speaker 3: shape a number pretty efficiently by the time kickoff happens, 182 00:08:58,320 --> 00:09:00,960 Speaker 3: so you want to try to bet earlier week. They're 183 00:09:01,160 --> 00:09:05,400 Speaker 3: similar to prop player props. There are things called long teasers, 184 00:09:06,400 --> 00:09:11,040 Speaker 3: and what those are is you could tease two sides 185 00:09:11,720 --> 00:09:14,160 Speaker 3: through as long as they're both through three and seven 186 00:09:14,440 --> 00:09:16,439 Speaker 3: six point teaser. You want to have at least minus 187 00:09:16,440 --> 00:09:19,839 Speaker 3: one twenty or better. You can find some minus one 188 00:09:19,920 --> 00:09:22,600 Speaker 3: tens if you're really lucky and have a good account 189 00:09:22,640 --> 00:09:24,120 Speaker 3: still out there. They used to be even money, like 190 00:09:24,160 --> 00:09:26,720 Speaker 3: ten fifteen years ago. No matter what who the teams are. 191 00:09:26,880 --> 00:09:29,199 Speaker 3: This is a plus ev bet going through these two 192 00:09:29,280 --> 00:09:32,520 Speaker 3: key numbers and you know I've done it. So I 193 00:09:32,600 --> 00:09:34,600 Speaker 3: will do this to start start a football season and 194 00:09:34,600 --> 00:09:37,199 Speaker 3: we'll have teasers. The teaser option taken away in the 195 00:09:37,320 --> 00:09:40,160 Speaker 3: NFL on almost every account that I have, but it's 196 00:09:40,160 --> 00:09:42,160 Speaker 3: a good way to build back mouth. Some books are 197 00:09:42,160 --> 00:09:44,080 Speaker 3: becoming smarter and are these will be like minus one 198 00:09:44,160 --> 00:09:46,120 Speaker 3: forty where it doesn't really make sense, but make sure 199 00:09:46,160 --> 00:09:48,680 Speaker 3: you check what the prices are. But these teasers, I 200 00:09:49,240 --> 00:09:53,240 Speaker 3: go search on Google Stucky teaser guide and I, you know, 201 00:09:53,360 --> 00:09:55,200 Speaker 3: show all the math behind it and explain it. But 202 00:09:55,240 --> 00:09:58,480 Speaker 3: that's an option that, depending on your book, could be 203 00:09:58,559 --> 00:10:03,719 Speaker 3: out there and you know some other things that I've 204 00:10:03,720 --> 00:10:05,760 Speaker 3: written down here to prepare for this. Don't be a homer. 205 00:10:06,280 --> 00:10:08,000 Speaker 3: You can actually you know, everyone wants to bet their 206 00:10:08,040 --> 00:10:12,280 Speaker 3: team every week, and you actually might have you know, 207 00:10:12,520 --> 00:10:15,360 Speaker 3: a small edge if you could remove your homersm you 208 00:10:15,400 --> 00:10:18,760 Speaker 3: follow your team so closely, you probably you know, closer 209 00:10:18,760 --> 00:10:20,480 Speaker 3: than odds makers, and maybe you have a good if 210 00:10:20,480 --> 00:10:22,640 Speaker 3: you want to fade your home team, but people don't 211 00:10:22,640 --> 00:10:25,240 Speaker 3: do that. So uh, just try not to be a homer. 212 00:10:25,880 --> 00:10:28,160 Speaker 3: If you want to find someone that's profitable long track 213 00:10:28,240 --> 00:10:29,800 Speaker 3: record is what do you want to make sure and 214 00:10:29,840 --> 00:10:32,480 Speaker 3: follow them on the Action network gap, don't buy, don't 215 00:10:32,480 --> 00:10:37,800 Speaker 3: buy picks obviously, yeah, the Vegas Day billboard. But I 216 00:10:37,800 --> 00:10:39,719 Speaker 3: would say the most important advice that I can give 217 00:10:39,920 --> 00:10:43,400 Speaker 3: to anyone two things. In the NFL, it's a highly 218 00:10:43,400 --> 00:10:47,280 Speaker 3: reactive market. So you know, go turn on ESPN or 219 00:10:47,320 --> 00:10:50,600 Speaker 3: any channel and everyone's talking about the NFL all week long. 220 00:10:50,720 --> 00:10:53,080 Speaker 3: So if you can have just the mindset of buying 221 00:10:53,160 --> 00:10:56,240 Speaker 3: low and selling high in the NFL as a general principle, 222 00:10:56,480 --> 00:11:00,160 Speaker 3: I think you'll be better off. Team looked hard last week, 223 00:11:00,200 --> 00:11:02,559 Speaker 3: and again they're playing a team that looked really good. 224 00:11:02,920 --> 00:11:04,960 Speaker 3: You might you know, bi Lo cell highs kind of 225 00:11:04,960 --> 00:11:08,960 Speaker 3: the overarching philosophy of my NFL betting. 226 00:11:09,240 --> 00:11:11,679 Speaker 1: Like Week two of the NFL season, they call it 227 00:11:11,720 --> 00:11:13,480 Speaker 1: overreaction for a reason. 228 00:11:13,600 --> 00:11:15,120 Speaker 2: You know, give me a team you. 229 00:11:15,080 --> 00:11:17,840 Speaker 1: Lost by three touchdowns last week, I'll be all over 230 00:11:18,000 --> 00:11:20,640 Speaker 1: them kind of with that overcorrection. And I love how 231 00:11:20,679 --> 00:11:23,319 Speaker 1: you talk about the bandwidthout there. Right. 232 00:11:23,400 --> 00:11:25,240 Speaker 2: The books have you know. 233 00:11:25,240 --> 00:11:29,080 Speaker 1: A finite capacity as well, right, And everyone is betting 234 00:11:29,080 --> 00:11:31,320 Speaker 1: the NFL, so they pay more of their attention to 235 00:11:31,320 --> 00:11:33,719 Speaker 1: make sure that those lines are sharp outside of say 236 00:11:33,760 --> 00:11:35,920 Speaker 1: some of the props and you know, as opposed to 237 00:11:35,960 --> 00:11:39,720 Speaker 1: say like IVY League women's college basketball, they're not using 238 00:11:39,760 --> 00:11:43,040 Speaker 1: that much attention to try to make sure those lines 239 00:11:43,120 --> 00:11:43,920 Speaker 1: are as sharp. 240 00:11:43,920 --> 00:11:45,839 Speaker 2: One thing I do want to follow up with you, though, you. 241 00:11:45,840 --> 00:11:49,720 Speaker 1: Mentioned betting early in the week, right, Is that still 242 00:11:49,760 --> 00:11:52,760 Speaker 1: the same over the last couple of years, specifically with 243 00:11:52,960 --> 00:11:56,400 Speaker 1: COVID going on and the kind of moving target of 244 00:11:56,520 --> 00:12:00,000 Speaker 1: player availability even throughout the week, we would see ridiculous 245 00:12:00,200 --> 00:12:03,840 Speaker 1: line movement based purely on testing and availability. So you 246 00:12:03,880 --> 00:12:05,719 Speaker 1: talk about betting earlier in the week, does that kind 247 00:12:05,720 --> 00:12:07,959 Speaker 1: of still hold true even now? 248 00:12:08,600 --> 00:12:11,760 Speaker 3: Yeah? I think so. I mean that's a theoretical question, 249 00:12:11,840 --> 00:12:14,080 Speaker 3: and it comes down to your aversion to risk. But 250 00:12:14,800 --> 00:12:18,800 Speaker 3: if you could get completely screwed in the COVID world 251 00:12:19,200 --> 00:12:20,760 Speaker 3: where you know, you bet early in the week and 252 00:12:20,760 --> 00:12:23,640 Speaker 3: then you're starting quarterback test positive for COVID, right, So 253 00:12:23,679 --> 00:12:25,400 Speaker 3: you want to wait on the injury news. But do 254 00:12:25,440 --> 00:12:29,240 Speaker 3: you think that you're going to be first to react 255 00:12:29,240 --> 00:12:32,200 Speaker 3: to that injury news. Probably not in the NFL market, 256 00:12:32,280 --> 00:12:35,360 Speaker 3: especially if you're a recreational better there's leaks too, and 257 00:12:35,679 --> 00:12:37,360 Speaker 3: you're probably not gonna be first in the lines move 258 00:12:37,600 --> 00:12:40,520 Speaker 3: quickly and they'll come off the board right away. So 259 00:12:40,600 --> 00:12:43,719 Speaker 3: my mindset is, you know, unless there's like, hey, this 260 00:12:43,800 --> 00:12:46,160 Speaker 3: team had some COVID cases last week, so maybe they're 261 00:12:46,200 --> 00:12:48,559 Speaker 3: a little higher risk of its spreading. That's how I 262 00:12:48,640 --> 00:12:50,640 Speaker 3: used to think about it. But you know, if I 263 00:12:50,800 --> 00:12:52,680 Speaker 3: liked a number and a spot early in the week, 264 00:12:52,720 --> 00:12:55,360 Speaker 3: I would vet it and just knowing that over time, 265 00:12:55,520 --> 00:12:59,200 Speaker 3: hopefully ideally I would it would all wash out. You know, 266 00:12:59,240 --> 00:13:00,760 Speaker 3: the times you get screw rude and the times you 267 00:13:00,800 --> 00:13:04,000 Speaker 3: benefit from it. But if you're not comfortable with that, yeah, 268 00:13:04,040 --> 00:13:07,480 Speaker 3: then in this new COVID world, you probably want to wait. 269 00:13:08,080 --> 00:13:11,120 Speaker 3: You mentioned week two dogs, Yeah, I mean historically just 270 00:13:11,200 --> 00:13:14,560 Speaker 3: Week two underdogs in general in the NFL are about 271 00:13:14,600 --> 00:13:17,360 Speaker 3: fifty three percent over the past twenty five years, but 272 00:13:17,400 --> 00:13:21,240 Speaker 3: teams who lost Week one fifty five percent, about a 273 00:13:21,280 --> 00:13:23,760 Speaker 3: seven percent ROI pas thirty years teams you lost Week 274 00:13:23,800 --> 00:13:27,280 Speaker 3: one by double digits fifty eight percent historically. So I 275 00:13:27,360 --> 00:13:30,679 Speaker 3: like those Week two dogs that lost maybe got blown out, 276 00:13:30,760 --> 00:13:33,160 Speaker 3: especially around a key number, you know, around a three, 277 00:13:33,240 --> 00:13:35,000 Speaker 3: a seven. Probably the most important thing to know in 278 00:13:35,080 --> 00:13:39,760 Speaker 3: NFL betting are the key numbers three, four, seven, ten, fourteen, 279 00:13:40,559 --> 00:13:43,360 Speaker 3: three and set three is king. It's the most important 280 00:13:43,440 --> 00:13:47,040 Speaker 3: number in NFL. But if you're around a key number, 281 00:13:47,320 --> 00:13:51,360 Speaker 3: then you might you might get a lot, a lot 282 00:13:51,360 --> 00:13:52,959 Speaker 3: more value than you would say that the line is 283 00:13:53,000 --> 00:13:55,440 Speaker 3: around five, you're getting like a half point of value 284 00:13:55,440 --> 00:13:57,520 Speaker 3: based on week one over reactions, and you know, instead 285 00:13:57,520 --> 00:13:59,400 Speaker 3: of a six and a half you're getting a seven, 286 00:13:59,520 --> 00:14:01,320 Speaker 3: or instead of a two and a half you're getting 287 00:14:01,320 --> 00:14:04,000 Speaker 3: a three. That's that's massive, and that's something you want 288 00:14:04,000 --> 00:14:06,600 Speaker 3: to watch for in the market all week. That's something 289 00:14:06,640 --> 00:14:08,559 Speaker 3: I spend a lot of my time doing watching the market. 290 00:14:08,559 --> 00:14:11,720 Speaker 3: I've done it just obsessively for twenty years. You'll start 291 00:14:11,760 --> 00:14:14,040 Speaker 3: to pick up things why aline is moving a certain 292 00:14:14,080 --> 00:14:15,679 Speaker 3: way early in the week. Maybe it's a pump fake 293 00:14:15,679 --> 00:14:17,840 Speaker 3: when limits open, why it's moving this way, and you 294 00:14:17,920 --> 00:14:19,920 Speaker 3: kind of start to understand it's just like the financial 295 00:14:19,920 --> 00:14:23,080 Speaker 3: markets just by watching. But if you're around a key number, 296 00:14:23,320 --> 00:14:25,120 Speaker 3: you know, if you're around a six, if you like 297 00:14:25,160 --> 00:14:26,840 Speaker 3: a dog and you're a plus six and a half, 298 00:14:27,320 --> 00:14:28,800 Speaker 3: you want to watch that. You want to You don't 299 00:14:28,800 --> 00:14:31,600 Speaker 3: want to bet it right now, and you want to watch. 300 00:14:32,040 --> 00:14:34,120 Speaker 3: There's sharper books out there. You want to watch. Okay, 301 00:14:34,440 --> 00:14:36,680 Speaker 3: starting to tick down. If it is, maybe I'll lock 302 00:14:36,720 --> 00:14:38,200 Speaker 3: in my six and a half, but let me wait 303 00:14:38,240 --> 00:14:39,800 Speaker 3: to see if it's going to go to seven. If 304 00:14:39,800 --> 00:14:41,880 Speaker 3: it's at two and a half, let me go to three. 305 00:14:42,440 --> 00:14:45,840 Speaker 3: Those key numbers massive to understand. But stop. Don't buy points. 306 00:14:45,880 --> 00:14:47,880 Speaker 3: You have to stop. There's things that people do with 307 00:14:47,920 --> 00:14:51,120 Speaker 3: these part crazy parlays when they first start out buying points. 308 00:14:51,560 --> 00:14:54,840 Speaker 3: That's just you know, you're trying to loss a version bias. 309 00:14:55,000 --> 00:14:57,480 Speaker 3: It doesn't make sense. It makes sense on a three 310 00:14:57,680 --> 00:15:00,880 Speaker 3: sometimes depending on the price, but just as a general 311 00:15:00,920 --> 00:15:03,600 Speaker 3: from stop buying points. It's just it's going to cost 312 00:15:03,640 --> 00:15:07,360 Speaker 3: you money over time, and who cares that one time 313 00:15:07,400 --> 00:15:09,200 Speaker 3: that you lost by the half point. It's going to happen, 314 00:15:09,280 --> 00:15:12,600 Speaker 3: you just have to accept it. And that is that 315 00:15:12,680 --> 00:15:14,200 Speaker 3: leads me to my most important point, and this goes 316 00:15:14,240 --> 00:15:16,920 Speaker 3: for any sport that you're betting. You know, most people 317 00:15:16,960 --> 00:15:21,080 Speaker 3: lose money betting sports overwhelming majority, ninety nine percent of 318 00:15:21,200 --> 00:15:24,600 Speaker 3: people do, which is funny because only about one percent 319 00:15:24,600 --> 00:15:26,360 Speaker 3: of people admit that they lose money back. 320 00:15:26,880 --> 00:15:27,440 Speaker 2: If you look at. 321 00:15:28,000 --> 00:15:32,200 Speaker 3: Those numbers are definitely skewed differently, yes, but they if 322 00:15:32,240 --> 00:15:34,720 Speaker 3: I took if I wanted to bet sports the entire year, 323 00:15:35,400 --> 00:15:38,640 Speaker 3: and my process was this. I use this example all 324 00:15:38,680 --> 00:15:41,280 Speaker 3: the time. If I ask my little sister what I'm 325 00:15:41,320 --> 00:15:42,960 Speaker 3: going to bet? Every day, I just wake up and 326 00:15:42,960 --> 00:15:44,600 Speaker 3: I ask her what am I going to bet? And 327 00:15:44,640 --> 00:15:46,960 Speaker 3: then I bet the same amount of money on every 328 00:15:47,000 --> 00:15:49,160 Speaker 3: single bet. But it will happen over time, you know, 329 00:15:49,200 --> 00:15:52,400 Speaker 3: over a couple thousands of bets. Is I'll break even 330 00:15:52,920 --> 00:15:55,520 Speaker 3: and I'll juice out. You'll lose juice, but you're not 331 00:15:55,520 --> 00:15:57,560 Speaker 3: going to get hurt, right, especially if you're a recreational better. 332 00:15:57,560 --> 00:15:58,880 Speaker 3: You're never going to be like, oh my god, I 333 00:15:58,920 --> 00:16:00,760 Speaker 3: owe this amount or I'm bawn this much. You're just 334 00:16:00,800 --> 00:16:03,360 Speaker 3: gonna juice that you have your entertainment value of betting 335 00:16:03,400 --> 00:16:06,320 Speaker 3: the NFL. By the way, there are pools contests out there. 336 00:16:06,720 --> 00:16:08,360 Speaker 3: There's other ways to get your action where you don't 337 00:16:08,360 --> 00:16:10,080 Speaker 3: need to betting every game. You don't need to betting 338 00:16:10,080 --> 00:16:11,960 Speaker 3: every game. You don't need to be betting every prime time game. 339 00:16:12,200 --> 00:16:15,600 Speaker 3: But the reason most people lose and the reason people 340 00:16:15,640 --> 00:16:18,040 Speaker 3: lose a lot, and the reason that there's uh, you know, 341 00:16:18,080 --> 00:16:20,360 Speaker 3: outside of addiction, that there's people that just go away 342 00:16:20,400 --> 00:16:23,400 Speaker 3: and it's all behavioral biases. I think one of the 343 00:16:23,400 --> 00:16:27,160 Speaker 3: best things that you can do is I tweet about 344 00:16:27,160 --> 00:16:28,640 Speaker 3: this all the time, talk about on our podcast all 345 00:16:28,680 --> 00:16:34,360 Speaker 3: the time, is to just understand behavioral biases by a 346 00:16:34,400 --> 00:16:38,920 Speaker 3: behavioral finance book Google. You know, cognitive and emotional biases 347 00:16:39,040 --> 00:16:39,760 Speaker 3: and discipline. 348 00:16:39,960 --> 00:16:42,480 Speaker 1: It's hard to be disciplined when there's the shiny toy 349 00:16:42,840 --> 00:16:45,640 Speaker 1: out there and the crazy multipliers. But you know, the 350 00:16:45,720 --> 00:16:48,400 Speaker 1: more prudent way is probably trying to just inch the rock. 351 00:16:48,320 --> 00:16:49,960 Speaker 2: Up the hill, right stuff. Yeah. 352 00:16:50,040 --> 00:16:52,800 Speaker 3: Yeah, And if you're if you're down a lot, you know, 353 00:16:53,040 --> 00:16:56,520 Speaker 3: trying to double up or chase it's you know, it's 354 00:16:56,920 --> 00:16:58,400 Speaker 3: it's only going to lead to bad things. It might 355 00:16:58,400 --> 00:17:00,440 Speaker 3: work once or twice if your way up and then 356 00:17:00,520 --> 00:17:01,880 Speaker 3: just going all in on a play. 357 00:17:03,200 --> 00:17:06,320 Speaker 1: You're not betting Hawaii overs late night on a Saturday, though, 358 00:17:06,400 --> 00:17:07,200 Speaker 1: chasing the dragon. 359 00:17:07,880 --> 00:17:11,480 Speaker 3: No, I mean, it's you know, if if you you know, 360 00:17:11,480 --> 00:17:13,040 Speaker 3: if you if you're bad with this stuff, you have 361 00:17:13,080 --> 00:17:15,760 Speaker 3: I mean, it takes time to learn, and you might 362 00:17:15,840 --> 00:17:18,080 Speaker 3: have to get burnt a couple of times before you 363 00:17:18,160 --> 00:17:21,879 Speaker 3: use and some people, unfortunately, never learn how to do this. 364 00:17:21,920 --> 00:17:24,439 Speaker 3: But it's the difference between someone that's basically just going 365 00:17:24,480 --> 00:17:26,520 Speaker 3: to be a break even better without doing anything else, 366 00:17:26,640 --> 00:17:33,600 Speaker 3: and extremely losing better. Is all the behavioral biases, the chasing, 367 00:17:34,560 --> 00:17:37,440 Speaker 3: the tilt, trying to avoid till you just have to accept. 368 00:17:37,640 --> 00:17:40,200 Speaker 3: Trust me, I've been doing this for twenty years. You're 369 00:17:40,240 --> 00:17:43,119 Speaker 3: you're gonna get screwed a lot, and it's going to happen, 370 00:17:43,680 --> 00:17:45,760 Speaker 3: and you bitch about it and then you move on. 371 00:17:46,840 --> 00:17:49,760 Speaker 3: You try to remember the good beats and that's all 372 00:17:49,760 --> 00:17:52,399 Speaker 3: you can do. Like you, and you cannot compound a mistake. 373 00:17:52,440 --> 00:17:55,320 Speaker 3: What already happened has happened. Vent however you want to 374 00:17:55,400 --> 00:17:58,639 Speaker 3: vent and then move on because you can't let another 375 00:17:58,680 --> 00:18:01,439 Speaker 3: bet impact your next one. And if you have trouble 376 00:18:01,440 --> 00:18:03,960 Speaker 3: with it, just be take again. Like I said, you 377 00:18:04,000 --> 00:18:06,200 Speaker 3: want to betting NFL early the week. Anyway, you're betting 378 00:18:06,240 --> 00:18:09,560 Speaker 3: the game on Sunday at the fourth. You're trying to 379 00:18:09,600 --> 00:18:11,439 Speaker 3: rush the four thirty because you went oh and seven 380 00:18:12,359 --> 00:18:15,879 Speaker 3: at one o'clock, like you know, it's it's You're probably 381 00:18:15,920 --> 00:18:17,360 Speaker 3: don't have an edge there. You might as well. You're 382 00:18:17,400 --> 00:18:19,399 Speaker 3: just flipping a coin and the market's already, So put 383 00:18:19,400 --> 00:18:21,480 Speaker 3: your bets in before the day starts. If you have 384 00:18:21,520 --> 00:18:24,000 Speaker 3: trouble with this, and that's all you're gonna do now, 385 00:18:24,000 --> 00:18:25,680 Speaker 3: I know you're probably going to end up getting drunk 386 00:18:25,720 --> 00:18:29,280 Speaker 3: and then putting bets in, And that's a whole nother conversation. 387 00:18:29,400 --> 00:18:32,159 Speaker 1: But that's outside the discipline as well. Right when I 388 00:18:32,200 --> 00:18:34,280 Speaker 1: go to the Brazilian steakhouse and they have the red 389 00:18:34,320 --> 00:18:37,320 Speaker 1: and the green coasters, sometime I have to turn the 390 00:18:37,359 --> 00:18:40,439 Speaker 1: coaster over to red. If I'm going to be a 391 00:18:40,440 --> 00:18:43,320 Speaker 1: little bit disciplined, I understand, you know, people are gonna 392 00:18:43,320 --> 00:18:45,760 Speaker 1: get excited or gonna you know, bet the props of 393 00:18:45,800 --> 00:18:48,520 Speaker 1: their favorite team, but if you actually want to make 394 00:18:48,720 --> 00:18:51,600 Speaker 1: money out of this, you actually have to be a 395 00:18:51,600 --> 00:18:54,680 Speaker 1: little bit more disciplined. But still, you've mentioned a lot 396 00:18:54,680 --> 00:18:59,240 Speaker 1: of concepts already right, like buying, low selling high shopping around. 397 00:18:59,240 --> 00:19:00,400 Speaker 1: But one of the things I want to get into 398 00:19:00,400 --> 00:19:03,520 Speaker 1: a little bit more are the key numbers. 399 00:19:02,760 --> 00:19:03,600 Speaker 2: In the NFL. 400 00:19:03,680 --> 00:19:06,720 Speaker 1: You talk about it, three, four, seven, ten, These are 401 00:19:06,720 --> 00:19:09,440 Speaker 1: the usual permutations of scores because of. 402 00:19:09,400 --> 00:19:11,919 Speaker 2: The way scoring happens in the NFL. 403 00:19:11,960 --> 00:19:13,840 Speaker 1: Why don't you tell the people here a little bit 404 00:19:13,880 --> 00:19:17,560 Speaker 1: more about why those are the key numbers, why they 405 00:19:17,600 --> 00:19:20,000 Speaker 1: are so important to betting and so one thing that 406 00:19:20,040 --> 00:19:22,240 Speaker 1: I want to know is is that still the same 407 00:19:22,560 --> 00:19:25,560 Speaker 1: with the proliferation of two point conversions, with the proliferation 408 00:19:25,640 --> 00:19:29,680 Speaker 1: of mixed extra points, with the proliferation on coaches going 409 00:19:29,720 --> 00:19:32,560 Speaker 1: for it on fourth and six from their opponents thirty 410 00:19:32,600 --> 00:19:35,000 Speaker 1: two yard line, are the key numbers still the same 411 00:19:35,080 --> 00:19:38,800 Speaker 1: as we talk about it in the long term. 412 00:19:38,000 --> 00:19:40,879 Speaker 3: Yeah, they're they're they're a bit different. But for the 413 00:19:41,040 --> 00:19:44,480 Speaker 3: you know, the high level, the biggest numbers are still 414 00:19:44,520 --> 00:19:48,800 Speaker 3: your three for six, seven, ten and three is kicking me. 415 00:19:48,920 --> 00:19:52,639 Speaker 3: You score a field goals and touchdowns, which is why 416 00:19:52,680 --> 00:19:56,760 Speaker 3: three is so important. And if you just google, I'm 417 00:19:56,760 --> 00:19:57,760 Speaker 3: not going to go in all the math. If you 418 00:19:57,800 --> 00:20:01,400 Speaker 3: just google NFL key numbers, NFL scored distribution, you'll see 419 00:20:01,760 --> 00:20:05,520 Speaker 3: it's overwhelming. They're key numbers and totals as well, which 420 00:20:05,520 --> 00:20:07,480 Speaker 3: you'll see. We have articles out on that as well 421 00:20:07,600 --> 00:20:10,240 Speaker 3: on actionnetwork dot com. But they've changed a bit and 422 00:20:10,440 --> 00:20:14,399 Speaker 3: like eight is now eight as a spread is a 423 00:20:14,400 --> 00:20:18,199 Speaker 3: bit more important. Extince twenty fifteen extra point move back, Right, 424 00:20:18,240 --> 00:20:20,600 Speaker 3: you get more missed X points, more teams going for two, 425 00:20:21,080 --> 00:20:24,840 Speaker 3: more teams going for two, you know, down fourteen, right, 426 00:20:24,880 --> 00:20:26,639 Speaker 3: you score and then hey let's go for two. Then 427 00:20:26,680 --> 00:20:28,600 Speaker 3: if we you'll see this and then everyone argues over 428 00:20:28,720 --> 00:20:31,480 Speaker 3: on Twitter while coaches are just trying to increase their 429 00:20:31,520 --> 00:20:35,119 Speaker 3: win probability and regulation. But totals too, like you know, 430 00:20:35,800 --> 00:20:40,040 Speaker 3: forty three, it's because of more missed extra points, more 431 00:20:40,080 --> 00:20:44,159 Speaker 3: two point conversions. So it is. It has changed the 432 00:20:44,200 --> 00:20:47,080 Speaker 3: distribution some and we get more and more data on 433 00:20:47,119 --> 00:20:50,480 Speaker 3: this each and every year. But your your key numbers 434 00:20:50,480 --> 00:20:54,600 Speaker 3: are still three, four, six, seven, ten, You what you 435 00:20:54,640 --> 00:20:57,520 Speaker 3: want to do, and I those are teezing through three 436 00:20:57,520 --> 00:20:59,560 Speaker 3: and seven, never teas through zero. By the way, just 437 00:20:59,680 --> 00:21:01,880 Speaker 3: get that in your head. You're just you're not gonna 438 00:21:01,880 --> 00:21:05,760 Speaker 3: have you're giving up one to negative one, right, You're 439 00:21:05,800 --> 00:21:08,560 Speaker 3: just you're paying to give up those dead points now. 440 00:21:08,560 --> 00:21:09,320 Speaker 2: But to that point. 441 00:21:09,440 --> 00:21:11,639 Speaker 1: Eight and a half looks real good because if I 442 00:21:11,640 --> 00:21:13,639 Speaker 1: can go from eight and a half two and a half, 443 00:21:13,840 --> 00:21:17,159 Speaker 1: I am getting through both three and seven. Right, So 444 00:21:17,200 --> 00:21:20,200 Speaker 1: when you talk about the kind of distribution of scores, right, 445 00:21:20,280 --> 00:21:23,439 Speaker 1: going from you know, covering something over a touchdown to 446 00:21:23,440 --> 00:21:25,960 Speaker 1: getting me inside of a field goal, that may be 447 00:21:26,200 --> 00:21:27,640 Speaker 1: something a little bit more effective. 448 00:21:27,640 --> 00:21:30,000 Speaker 3: Correct, yeah, massive, And you will have book like so 449 00:21:30,000 --> 00:21:33,159 Speaker 3: if you can find if there's an underdog out there 450 00:21:33,240 --> 00:21:35,560 Speaker 3: you wanted to tease it with, you know, say a 451 00:21:35,600 --> 00:21:38,919 Speaker 3: seven and a half point favorite, and you know, one 452 00:21:38,960 --> 00:21:40,920 Speaker 3: book it's one and a half, the underdog's one and 453 00:21:40,920 --> 00:21:42,240 Speaker 3: a half, and the other book it's two and a half. 454 00:21:42,280 --> 00:21:45,080 Speaker 3: Not you know, you go to the two and a half, 455 00:21:45,160 --> 00:21:48,240 Speaker 3: get over the eighth for the two point conversions. But 456 00:21:48,320 --> 00:21:52,359 Speaker 3: you'll you'll see how important teasers are and how plus 457 00:21:52,400 --> 00:21:54,480 Speaker 3: ev they are. But for some books, they books will 458 00:21:54,760 --> 00:21:58,439 Speaker 3: will skew lines for teaser protection. They'll go right from 459 00:21:58,880 --> 00:22:00,720 Speaker 3: you know up to nine and a half, right eight 460 00:22:00,920 --> 00:22:02,840 Speaker 3: nine kind of dead. Nine is a dead number in 461 00:22:02,840 --> 00:22:04,639 Speaker 3: the NFL. Get right up to nine and a half, 462 00:22:04,760 --> 00:22:07,040 Speaker 3: so that if you tease it down six points, you're 463 00:22:07,040 --> 00:22:11,120 Speaker 3: not crossing that three. So yeah, there are key numbers 464 00:22:11,160 --> 00:22:14,720 Speaker 3: to keep in mind. And it's like I said, the 465 00:22:14,920 --> 00:22:16,919 Speaker 3: biggest thing that you should keep in mind is as 466 00:22:17,040 --> 00:22:20,560 Speaker 3: a recreational novice. Better is that if you like a 467 00:22:20,760 --> 00:22:25,200 Speaker 3: side around a key number, then wait for it, start 468 00:22:25,240 --> 00:22:27,320 Speaker 3: to monitor the market, start to understand the market. But 469 00:22:27,359 --> 00:22:29,120 Speaker 3: if you see it, sorry, it's starting to come down. 470 00:22:30,240 --> 00:22:31,719 Speaker 3: You don't think it's gonna go back up. These are 471 00:22:31,720 --> 00:22:36,240 Speaker 3: things you have to learn over time. Okay, then maybe 472 00:22:36,400 --> 00:22:38,760 Speaker 3: I'll hit it now. But if it's looks like okay, 473 00:22:39,080 --> 00:22:41,560 Speaker 3: it's hold and steady, wait holding steady at six and 474 00:22:41,600 --> 00:22:45,320 Speaker 3: a half, wait to see if that's seven comes, or 475 00:22:45,359 --> 00:22:46,520 Speaker 3: wait on that two and a half to see if 476 00:22:46,520 --> 00:22:49,800 Speaker 3: the three comes, because it is that important over time. 477 00:22:50,640 --> 00:22:53,399 Speaker 3: And then look you, as I said before, you don't 478 00:22:53,440 --> 00:22:57,240 Speaker 3: have to bet every game. So some people will really 479 00:22:57,320 --> 00:22:58,960 Speaker 3: like a side and that they don't they don't they're 480 00:22:58,960 --> 00:23:01,679 Speaker 3: not modeling games, don't have a you know, a percentage 481 00:23:01,800 --> 00:23:04,840 Speaker 3: edge that they're showing, and they really like it, really 482 00:23:04,920 --> 00:23:06,600 Speaker 3: like a side, and they don't have like, Okay, I 483 00:23:06,680 --> 00:23:08,280 Speaker 3: like it to this number, and they'll just end up 484 00:23:08,280 --> 00:23:10,200 Speaker 3: betting anyway if it's at six and a half and 485 00:23:10,280 --> 00:23:13,280 Speaker 3: never goes to seven, where someone who's doing it professionally 486 00:23:13,359 --> 00:23:15,399 Speaker 3: might say, you know, I like this at plus seven 487 00:23:15,400 --> 00:23:17,560 Speaker 3: minus one ten or better. If it never hits that, 488 00:23:17,640 --> 00:23:19,520 Speaker 3: I'm k not going to bet it. If as a 489 00:23:19,520 --> 00:23:21,280 Speaker 3: recreational better you're like, I like the side. It's on 490 00:23:21,280 --> 00:23:24,480 Speaker 3: Monday Night football, and you wait it for the seven 491 00:23:24,520 --> 00:23:28,800 Speaker 3: all week and it never comes. Don't just I mean, 492 00:23:28,800 --> 00:23:30,960 Speaker 3: you don't just bet the six and a half. What 493 00:23:31,040 --> 00:23:35,359 Speaker 3: you can do now, with with how prevalent live betting is, 494 00:23:35,359 --> 00:23:37,160 Speaker 3: is going and see if you can get a better number. 495 00:23:37,240 --> 00:23:38,800 Speaker 3: And look, people want to sweat the Monday and I 496 00:23:38,840 --> 00:23:41,520 Speaker 3: game that's a sweat in and of itself. You go 497 00:23:41,640 --> 00:23:43,479 Speaker 3: in and you say, all right, let's and then you're 498 00:23:43,560 --> 00:23:46,440 Speaker 3: rooting for and you're obviously you're rooting against your side 499 00:23:46,520 --> 00:23:48,560 Speaker 3: right away, and then you're like, all right, let's and 500 00:23:48,640 --> 00:23:51,840 Speaker 3: then you have your live markets up, your books up, 501 00:23:51,840 --> 00:23:54,200 Speaker 3: and then in the NFL, I mean you can live 502 00:23:54,320 --> 00:23:58,000 Speaker 3: live betting is fairly easy. So go in and then 503 00:23:58,040 --> 00:23:59,520 Speaker 3: wait to see if you can get your seven. Maybe 504 00:23:59,560 --> 00:24:01,679 Speaker 3: you can get your seven and a half. So with 505 00:24:01,760 --> 00:24:05,040 Speaker 3: live betting, you don't have This isn't nineteen ninety eight 506 00:24:05,080 --> 00:24:06,359 Speaker 3: where it's like all right, I got to if I 507 00:24:06,400 --> 00:24:11,120 Speaker 3: don't bet this game before kickoff, that's it. So think 508 00:24:11,160 --> 00:24:13,240 Speaker 3: of it that way, like you can. You could still 509 00:24:13,280 --> 00:24:14,840 Speaker 3: have your sweat if you didn't get a bet in 510 00:24:15,240 --> 00:24:17,320 Speaker 3: if you never got your number that you wanted, especially 511 00:24:17,320 --> 00:24:19,439 Speaker 3: around a key number. Those are so important in the NFL. 512 00:24:19,880 --> 00:24:21,320 Speaker 3: Wait to see if you can get it live or 513 00:24:21,359 --> 00:24:26,240 Speaker 3: the second half, and yeah, I bet you'll end up 514 00:24:26,240 --> 00:24:27,360 Speaker 3: saving money over the long run. 515 00:24:27,960 --> 00:24:30,919 Speaker 1: This is spent statistician Dane Martinez in the Prime Minister 516 00:24:31,000 --> 00:24:35,200 Speaker 1: of the Generate Nation, Stucky here with the Action Networks expert. 517 00:24:34,800 --> 00:24:36,480 Speaker 2: Guy to betting the NFL. 518 00:24:36,560 --> 00:24:40,960 Speaker 1: The NFL being a uniquely sharp market with only thirty 519 00:24:40,960 --> 00:24:45,120 Speaker 1: two teams, not three hundred colleges, and everybody on God's 520 00:24:45,200 --> 00:24:46,320 Speaker 1: green Earth. 521 00:24:46,359 --> 00:24:49,320 Speaker 2: Trying to get some action on the NFL. 522 00:24:49,400 --> 00:24:51,920 Speaker 1: Stucky, you know we're in the off season right now, right, 523 00:24:51,960 --> 00:24:55,639 Speaker 1: so leading up to an NFL season, what are some 524 00:24:55,720 --> 00:24:58,439 Speaker 1: of the things that you're actually paying attention to. I 525 00:24:58,480 --> 00:25:00,920 Speaker 1: know everybody says there is the best shape of their 526 00:25:00,960 --> 00:25:03,960 Speaker 1: life as training cam start, but are you looking at 527 00:25:04,000 --> 00:25:08,240 Speaker 1: player movement, coach movement, player development. What are some of 528 00:25:08,280 --> 00:25:11,679 Speaker 1: the things you do to kind of prepare for the season. 529 00:25:11,720 --> 00:25:13,400 Speaker 1: I mean I've heard a lot about what the Vikings 530 00:25:13,480 --> 00:25:16,119 Speaker 1: offense might look like, or how Trevor Lawrence is going 531 00:25:16,160 --> 00:25:18,640 Speaker 1: to be in year two under a new head coach 532 00:25:18,680 --> 00:25:21,440 Speaker 1: that has a statue outside of the City of Brotherly Love. 533 00:25:21,480 --> 00:25:23,280 Speaker 1: But what are the things you really zone in on 534 00:25:23,640 --> 00:25:27,200 Speaker 1: to try to get information leading up to an NFL season. 535 00:25:27,760 --> 00:25:29,400 Speaker 3: Yeah, you can't fall too much in love with coach 536 00:25:29,440 --> 00:25:32,960 Speaker 3: speak because it's all rosy. Every team is going to 537 00:25:32,960 --> 00:25:35,080 Speaker 3: be better, even with pre You read a lot of 538 00:25:35,160 --> 00:25:36,359 Speaker 3: national previews out there. 539 00:25:36,200 --> 00:25:38,840 Speaker 2: Great Google, incredible group of guys. 540 00:25:39,400 --> 00:25:41,679 Speaker 3: Every group is going to be better and improved from 541 00:25:41,760 --> 00:25:44,320 Speaker 3: last year. So you kind of have to distill and take. Yeah, 542 00:25:44,680 --> 00:25:46,920 Speaker 3: it's more art than science if you're when you're because 543 00:25:47,000 --> 00:25:49,280 Speaker 3: I do a lot of reading, you do listening to podcasts, 544 00:25:49,720 --> 00:25:51,639 Speaker 3: do as much reading as I can read all the 545 00:25:51,640 --> 00:25:53,600 Speaker 3: previous but a lot of it it's just I don't care, 546 00:25:53,680 --> 00:25:55,919 Speaker 3: but it's chunk. It's junk. But I spent a lot 547 00:25:55,960 --> 00:25:59,960 Speaker 3: of time going back and looking at last year, really 548 00:26:00,160 --> 00:26:03,520 Speaker 3: deep dives on teams and looking at my end of 549 00:26:03,600 --> 00:26:07,639 Speaker 3: year power ratings because the most important part of the 550 00:26:07,680 --> 00:26:11,240 Speaker 3: season is your beginning power ratings. So, okay, what's just 551 00:26:11,280 --> 00:26:14,000 Speaker 3: the starting point to that is your end of season powerating. 552 00:26:14,040 --> 00:26:17,320 Speaker 3: So going in, going even deeper into team statistical programs. 553 00:26:17,320 --> 00:26:20,359 Speaker 3: I mean so many statistics and advanced metrics you can 554 00:26:20,400 --> 00:26:23,720 Speaker 3: look at for NFL teams to determine, Okay, well let's 555 00:26:23,720 --> 00:26:28,200 Speaker 3: look at their injury situation, luck and there's so much 556 00:26:28,200 --> 00:26:30,200 Speaker 3: that you can look into to kind of get a 557 00:26:30,240 --> 00:26:32,719 Speaker 3: feel for all, right, where should this Where was this 558 00:26:32,760 --> 00:26:34,760 Speaker 3: team really and do I need to adjust any of 559 00:26:34,760 --> 00:26:37,919 Speaker 3: my end of season powertings? Then you have the off season, right, 560 00:26:37,960 --> 00:26:41,960 Speaker 3: and that's you know. You have players moving, you have coaches. 561 00:26:42,080 --> 00:26:43,720 Speaker 3: I spent a lot of time trying to figure out, okay, 562 00:26:43,720 --> 00:26:47,520 Speaker 3: from a skiing perspective, from a front office perspective, is 563 00:26:47,560 --> 00:26:49,720 Speaker 3: this team really going to benefit? A good example is 564 00:26:50,119 --> 00:26:54,240 Speaker 3: I think the Ravens getting rid of Martin Deller defensive 565 00:26:54,240 --> 00:26:56,000 Speaker 3: coordinator is going to be a net positive. I think 566 00:26:56,040 --> 00:26:57,879 Speaker 3: that he can actually do some good things with the 567 00:26:57,880 --> 00:27:00,639 Speaker 3: Giants who need to generate more pressure. He's very blits heavy, 568 00:27:00,840 --> 00:27:03,399 Speaker 3: but his time is kind of passed in Baltimore. You 569 00:27:03,440 --> 00:27:05,080 Speaker 3: have to also account for the draft a little more 570 00:27:05,119 --> 00:27:07,520 Speaker 3: difficult because you're trying to project college kids in the NFL. 571 00:27:08,000 --> 00:27:10,320 Speaker 3: A lot of times, they're not going to have a 572 00:27:10,440 --> 00:27:13,399 Speaker 3: huge impact. There obviously are exceptions which you want to 573 00:27:13,400 --> 00:27:17,800 Speaker 3: try to account for, but yeah, you're trying to then 574 00:27:17,840 --> 00:27:21,560 Speaker 3: adjust the end of season power ratings, trying to get 575 00:27:21,560 --> 00:27:23,440 Speaker 3: a feel for teams. But you're not over you know, 576 00:27:23,680 --> 00:27:26,040 Speaker 3: there's only so much you could take from reading and 577 00:27:26,080 --> 00:27:28,920 Speaker 3: listening because everything is kind of going to be biased 578 00:27:28,920 --> 00:27:31,199 Speaker 3: from their perspective. But you're trying to take nuggets here 579 00:27:31,200 --> 00:27:33,560 Speaker 3: and there, and then once I have a good set 580 00:27:33,760 --> 00:27:37,440 Speaker 3: of power ratings, which you're adjusting every day every day, 581 00:27:37,480 --> 00:27:39,640 Speaker 3: I mean, you're looking at there's injuries, this could happen tomorrow. 582 00:27:40,080 --> 00:27:42,000 Speaker 3: But then then you want to compare to the market. 583 00:27:42,040 --> 00:27:44,480 Speaker 3: Like arguably the most efficient betting market in the world, 584 00:27:45,000 --> 00:27:48,040 Speaker 3: NFL spreads and totals the reason why you can bet 585 00:27:48,080 --> 00:27:50,280 Speaker 3: so much money on them, and from an outomaker perspective, 586 00:27:50,280 --> 00:27:53,919 Speaker 3: it's the highest volume sport. You know, there's one hundred 587 00:27:53,960 --> 00:27:56,400 Speaker 3: fewer teams than college football, so like, you know, trying 588 00:27:56,400 --> 00:27:59,399 Speaker 3: to keep up with UMass compared to you know, an 589 00:27:59,480 --> 00:28:02,399 Speaker 3: NFL team is a lot more difficult. So you have 590 00:28:02,440 --> 00:28:06,119 Speaker 3: to respect the market in most betting markets, but especially 591 00:28:06,200 --> 00:28:08,560 Speaker 3: in the NFL. So then I'll take. You know, you 592 00:28:08,600 --> 00:28:11,040 Speaker 3: can go and look at wind totals and they have 593 00:28:11,080 --> 00:28:12,960 Speaker 3: spreads out for every game, so you can kind of 594 00:28:13,000 --> 00:28:16,600 Speaker 3: derive what the market power ratings are. And then I 595 00:28:16,600 --> 00:28:20,960 Speaker 3: would spend time comparing mine to the market and then 596 00:28:21,240 --> 00:28:26,800 Speaker 3: understanding first determining where I am different, and then trying 597 00:28:26,800 --> 00:28:29,480 Speaker 3: to understand why and if I'm comfortable with that, because 598 00:28:29,720 --> 00:28:31,879 Speaker 3: I do respect the market the NFL, and I can say, okay, 599 00:28:32,119 --> 00:28:36,240 Speaker 3: I actually rate you know, this move or this coach. 600 00:28:36,320 --> 00:28:38,560 Speaker 3: I think a little higher than the market, So I'm 601 00:28:38,560 --> 00:28:41,640 Speaker 3: okay being higher than the market than this team. Then 602 00:28:41,640 --> 00:28:45,120 Speaker 3: you're taking every team's schedule, simulating that and then coming 603 00:28:45,200 --> 00:28:47,160 Speaker 3: up with your wind totals and then you know your 604 00:28:47,200 --> 00:28:51,040 Speaker 3: projected spreads. But it's just constant information gathering. So much 605 00:28:51,040 --> 00:28:57,840 Speaker 3: information out there, podcasts, articles, previews, magazines, Twitter and you 606 00:28:57,960 --> 00:29:01,760 Speaker 3: name it. So just constantly trying to still information and 607 00:29:02,160 --> 00:29:03,880 Speaker 3: get some nuggets here and there, which is why I 608 00:29:03,880 --> 00:29:05,560 Speaker 3: also think it's so important to watch games. I try 609 00:29:05,600 --> 00:29:08,280 Speaker 3: to watch as much as possible, especially during the year, 610 00:29:09,000 --> 00:29:12,120 Speaker 3: rewatch games during the week, and then you're you're tweaking, 611 00:29:12,200 --> 00:29:17,520 Speaker 3: and it's it's a NonStop process. But that's the main goal. 612 00:29:17,840 --> 00:29:21,080 Speaker 3: Of the summer is to try and get my initial 613 00:29:21,160 --> 00:29:23,920 Speaker 3: set of power ratings in a good spot that I'm 614 00:29:23,960 --> 00:29:28,160 Speaker 3: comfor with and then understand where and why I'm different 615 00:29:28,200 --> 00:29:31,640 Speaker 3: than the market and adjust if necessary. And then yeah, 616 00:29:31,640 --> 00:29:34,240 Speaker 3: it's kind of a sort of a similar process during 617 00:29:34,280 --> 00:29:34,680 Speaker 3: the season. 618 00:29:34,800 --> 00:29:37,520 Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely, And there's so many sources of information out there, 619 00:29:37,560 --> 00:29:39,880 Speaker 1: but be sure to make sure one of those sources 620 00:29:40,040 --> 00:29:44,000 Speaker 1: is the Action Network. Download the Action Network app, subscribe 621 00:29:44,040 --> 00:29:46,640 Speaker 1: to the Action Network YouTube channel, and you will be 622 00:29:46,680 --> 00:29:49,440 Speaker 1: able to get all that information, just like Stucky is 623 00:29:49,480 --> 00:29:50,040 Speaker 1: talking about. 624 00:29:50,080 --> 00:29:52,240 Speaker 2: So you talk about in the off season stuck. 625 00:29:51,960 --> 00:29:55,400 Speaker 1: How you're getting kind of to your baseline power index 626 00:29:55,480 --> 00:29:57,720 Speaker 1: for lack of a better term. Right, But then talk 627 00:29:57,760 --> 00:30:00,959 Speaker 1: to me about week by week to day, what is 628 00:30:01,000 --> 00:30:04,520 Speaker 1: the routine like on an NFL week and do you 629 00:30:04,560 --> 00:30:08,200 Speaker 1: put stock into things like you know, injury reports or 630 00:30:08,360 --> 00:30:11,239 Speaker 1: travel scheduled. You know, the West Coast team play at a 631 00:30:11,280 --> 00:30:13,800 Speaker 1: one o'clock start on the East coast, you know Andy 632 00:30:13,920 --> 00:30:17,240 Speaker 1: Reid after the buy things of that nature. What's your 633 00:30:17,320 --> 00:30:20,320 Speaker 1: process like in a given week day to day? 634 00:30:21,280 --> 00:30:23,040 Speaker 3: Yeah, that, you know, the West Coast to East Coast 635 00:30:23,040 --> 00:30:25,520 Speaker 3: thing brings up a good point, especially in market like 636 00:30:25,560 --> 00:30:28,640 Speaker 3: the NFL. That used to be a profitable angle, but 637 00:30:28,920 --> 00:30:32,120 Speaker 3: now it's a big Yeah, it's baked in. Now it's 638 00:30:32,160 --> 00:30:33,720 Speaker 3: it's gone. And it's something to keep in mind with 639 00:30:33,720 --> 00:30:38,080 Speaker 3: almost any sport, especially nowadays. Something that was profitable in 640 00:30:38,120 --> 00:30:41,920 Speaker 3: the past doesn't necessarily mean that it will be in 641 00:30:41,960 --> 00:30:44,200 Speaker 3: the future, right, Like the teams have also gotten smarter 642 00:30:44,280 --> 00:30:47,320 Speaker 3: with traveling and are able to do it more efficiently. 643 00:30:48,000 --> 00:30:52,240 Speaker 3: But the market can also price these things in, which 644 00:30:52,280 --> 00:30:55,480 Speaker 3: they have with many different examples, and in some cases 645 00:30:55,480 --> 00:30:58,520 Speaker 3: they can actually overprice it. And that's why vetting is 646 00:30:58,800 --> 00:31:01,760 Speaker 3: very difficult and why professionals have their own number and 647 00:31:01,880 --> 00:31:03,880 Speaker 3: they bake these things in. So yeah, I mean I 648 00:31:03,920 --> 00:31:06,760 Speaker 3: will bake in buys and and travel, but it's for 649 00:31:06,800 --> 00:31:09,320 Speaker 3: the most part those things are priced in to the market. 650 00:31:09,320 --> 00:31:11,680 Speaker 3: There are still some situational spots, which is more art 651 00:31:11,800 --> 00:31:16,640 Speaker 3: and science kind of incorporate that. Uh yeah, that I 652 00:31:16,880 --> 00:31:18,400 Speaker 3: that I will bet. But if they're all one off, 653 00:31:18,440 --> 00:31:21,240 Speaker 3: it's not I don't have any blanket rules. These are 654 00:31:21,320 --> 00:31:24,160 Speaker 3: kind of just the one off things that I'm incorporating 655 00:31:24,160 --> 00:31:26,240 Speaker 3: that are the subjective part. I mean, some people are 656 00:31:26,280 --> 00:31:30,880 Speaker 3: just purely numbers based betters, which I'm not I have 657 00:31:31,040 --> 00:31:31,520 Speaker 3: my number. 658 00:31:31,920 --> 00:31:34,720 Speaker 1: Its art form and science, right, and the best people 659 00:31:34,720 --> 00:31:37,480 Speaker 1: in this game are able to kind of code switch 660 00:31:37,600 --> 00:31:40,560 Speaker 1: or understand how to translate both what the charts and 661 00:31:40,600 --> 00:31:43,560 Speaker 1: graphs are telling you and what your eyes and hearts, 662 00:31:43,640 --> 00:31:45,440 Speaker 1: especially for a guy like you who's been doing it 663 00:31:45,480 --> 00:31:46,520 Speaker 1: for twenty thirty years. 664 00:31:47,080 --> 00:31:48,880 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, especially in their thought, I'm not not 665 00:31:48,960 --> 00:31:50,920 Speaker 3: going to have the best model, and they think about 666 00:31:50,960 --> 00:31:53,400 Speaker 3: how many smart people there are model in the NFL, 667 00:31:53,720 --> 00:31:55,760 Speaker 3: and you know, yeah, you're pretty much going to be 668 00:31:55,760 --> 00:31:57,640 Speaker 3: in the ballpark to a lot of people. It's not 669 00:31:58,200 --> 00:32:00,640 Speaker 3: rocket side. That's a rocket science. There's little or what 670 00:32:00,880 --> 00:32:05,080 Speaker 3: differentiates the best from you know, just being good. But 671 00:32:05,160 --> 00:32:07,800 Speaker 3: my where I think I get all of my age 672 00:32:07,800 --> 00:32:11,400 Speaker 3: in the NFL is with matchups trying to understand the matchups, 673 00:32:11,440 --> 00:32:12,760 Speaker 3: and that's where I spend most of my time on. 674 00:32:12,840 --> 00:32:15,080 Speaker 3: I think that there's still inefficiencies in the market when 675 00:32:15,080 --> 00:32:19,560 Speaker 3: it comes to offensive and defensive line play, and especially 676 00:32:19,640 --> 00:32:22,160 Speaker 3: in the secondary. So if you look at resources like 677 00:32:22,920 --> 00:32:25,960 Speaker 3: you know PFF, which grade secondary play, but how they're 678 00:32:26,000 --> 00:32:28,560 Speaker 3: like grading, it's very difficult to do. Like, Okay, who 679 00:32:28,640 --> 00:32:32,400 Speaker 3: was responsible for this completion? And you know it's very 680 00:32:32,440 --> 00:32:34,520 Speaker 3: high variance with a cornerback gives up an ADR play. 681 00:32:34,560 --> 00:32:36,040 Speaker 3: Maybe it was on the safety. Maybe you don't know 682 00:32:36,040 --> 00:32:37,680 Speaker 3: what the call was. I spend a lot of my 683 00:32:37,680 --> 00:32:41,240 Speaker 3: time trying to understand secondary. 684 00:32:41,320 --> 00:32:43,680 Speaker 1: Did he blow that coverage or was he supposed to 685 00:32:43,680 --> 00:32:46,200 Speaker 1: have a safety rolling over the top to help him out. 686 00:32:46,240 --> 00:32:49,480 Speaker 1: It's very hard to actually understand that just watching the game. 687 00:32:49,880 --> 00:32:52,440 Speaker 3: Yeah, and then understand and then trying to decipher, Okay, 688 00:32:52,560 --> 00:32:55,920 Speaker 3: where is where are the mismatches, the enormous mismatches in 689 00:32:55,960 --> 00:32:58,040 Speaker 3: a game, and could it could it swing this game? 690 00:32:58,360 --> 00:33:01,160 Speaker 3: A really good rush off against the rush defense. It 691 00:33:01,160 --> 00:33:03,200 Speaker 3: hasn't been exposed yet, but I think can be exposed 692 00:33:03,240 --> 00:33:05,400 Speaker 3: and might not be priced into the market, things like that. 693 00:33:05,440 --> 00:33:07,840 Speaker 3: So I spent a lot of time on matchups trying 694 00:33:07,880 --> 00:33:11,840 Speaker 3: to identify players that might be over the hill in 695 00:33:11,840 --> 00:33:14,000 Speaker 3: the secondary, trying to get ahead of that. But yeah, 696 00:33:14,040 --> 00:33:16,160 Speaker 3: I spend most of my time trying to understand, Okay, 697 00:33:16,200 --> 00:33:19,720 Speaker 3: what's from a scheme perspective, where how is this game 698 00:33:19,800 --> 00:33:21,520 Speaker 3: going to play out? And can it provide me with 699 00:33:21,560 --> 00:33:24,520 Speaker 3: any edge? My number is my starting point, and then 700 00:33:24,640 --> 00:33:27,520 Speaker 3: all these other subjective factors kind of push me over 701 00:33:27,560 --> 00:33:31,400 Speaker 3: the edge. But during the weekends, reading back, watching and. 702 00:33:31,600 --> 00:33:34,880 Speaker 1: Adjusting this team is going to play too high safety 703 00:33:34,920 --> 00:33:38,120 Speaker 1: against the Chiefs all the time. Maybe Clyde Edwards Hilaire 704 00:33:38,280 --> 00:33:41,480 Speaker 1: will actually get some touches in this one, and kind 705 00:33:41,480 --> 00:33:44,680 Speaker 1: of understanding what teams are trying to do and what 706 00:33:44,760 --> 00:33:48,760 Speaker 1: adjustments may be made when they are faced with that. 707 00:33:48,840 --> 00:33:52,200 Speaker 1: It's not sexy, right, but to understand that an offensive 708 00:33:52,280 --> 00:33:56,640 Speaker 1: line can completely kneecap a team's chances. Most people, the 709 00:33:56,640 --> 00:33:59,480 Speaker 1: public better is not thinking about that. Just go as 710 00:33:59,520 --> 00:34:02,440 Speaker 1: tops about that in the Super Bowl a couple of 711 00:34:02,520 --> 00:34:06,160 Speaker 1: years ago as a perfect kind of example. But stuck 712 00:34:06,200 --> 00:34:09,000 Speaker 1: you mentioned like there's no rules of thumb that you'll 713 00:34:09,040 --> 00:34:11,600 Speaker 1: just play blanketly, right, But we did talk about things 714 00:34:11,640 --> 00:34:15,560 Speaker 1: like overreactions in a week two and some other kind 715 00:34:15,560 --> 00:34:18,160 Speaker 1: of rules of thumb or tricks of the trade. What 716 00:34:18,200 --> 00:34:23,759 Speaker 1: would you describe as an ideal betting opportunity. You've run 717 00:34:23,800 --> 00:34:27,040 Speaker 1: all the numbers, you've got all the information, like when 718 00:34:27,080 --> 00:34:29,719 Speaker 1: something pops up on your radar, what could it be 719 00:34:29,840 --> 00:34:32,560 Speaker 1: that's really flashing bright red like I need to make 720 00:34:32,560 --> 00:34:33,160 Speaker 1: a play here? 721 00:34:34,320 --> 00:34:37,239 Speaker 3: Yeah, they and by the way, idea that they've gone 722 00:34:37,239 --> 00:34:38,799 Speaker 3: back to all the stats, you can go file trying 723 00:34:38,800 --> 00:34:41,759 Speaker 3: to like and offensive line play these schemes. This is 724 00:34:41,800 --> 00:34:44,560 Speaker 3: where the sharpest betters have disagreements, which is why I 725 00:34:44,600 --> 00:34:46,800 Speaker 3: think if there's some opportunities in the market, some people 726 00:34:47,000 --> 00:34:49,160 Speaker 3: will decipher this little different. Everyone has access to like 727 00:34:49,200 --> 00:34:52,560 Speaker 3: turnovers and uh, okay, who's which team has been lucky? 728 00:34:52,600 --> 00:34:55,560 Speaker 3: But maybe look at there, you want to go try 729 00:34:55,600 --> 00:34:57,640 Speaker 3: to go a level deeper to understand some of these teams. 730 00:34:57,719 --> 00:35:01,560 Speaker 3: When did the turnovers happen? When do the fourth downs happen? 731 00:35:02,080 --> 00:35:05,280 Speaker 3: Come up with your own advanced stats. You know, everyone 732 00:35:05,360 --> 00:35:07,080 Speaker 3: is kind of scraping the same things, but just just 733 00:35:07,120 --> 00:35:08,759 Speaker 3: keep that in mind. But yeah, an ideal, I'll give 734 00:35:08,760 --> 00:35:11,440 Speaker 3: you an example of an ideal. NFL gets script opportunity. 735 00:35:11,440 --> 00:35:13,440 Speaker 3: I mean obviously week two these I'm just talking in 736 00:35:13,520 --> 00:35:16,200 Speaker 3: general Bilow cell high. It's kind of the same thing 737 00:35:16,239 --> 00:35:21,080 Speaker 3: in the financial markets as well, like for example, because 738 00:35:21,080 --> 00:35:23,480 Speaker 3: you want to keep in mind week two one of 739 00:35:23,480 --> 00:35:26,040 Speaker 3: the hardest things as if you have if you have 740 00:35:26,080 --> 00:35:31,440 Speaker 3: a model and you're making your own tower rating. Yeah, 741 00:35:31,480 --> 00:35:34,200 Speaker 3: but also but week one you want to make you 742 00:35:34,239 --> 00:35:36,200 Speaker 3: don't want to overreact earlier in the season, but you're 743 00:35:36,239 --> 00:35:40,000 Speaker 3: also making your biggest changes to your powertings early in 744 00:35:40,000 --> 00:35:43,200 Speaker 3: the season. So there could be a team that it 745 00:35:43,280 --> 00:35:44,839 Speaker 3: was really bad in Week one and that just because 746 00:35:44,840 --> 00:35:48,080 Speaker 3: they're going to be really bad. And you know, especially 747 00:35:48,080 --> 00:35:50,439 Speaker 3: in college football, you you end up chasing this team 748 00:35:50,440 --> 00:35:52,360 Speaker 3: if you're not adjusting fest of all year and vetting 749 00:35:52,360 --> 00:35:54,319 Speaker 3: them and losing all your money. These teams that end 750 00:35:54,400 --> 00:35:56,000 Speaker 3: up being really bad and really good and your numbers 751 00:35:56,040 --> 00:35:59,200 Speaker 3: never really catch up. So it's a fine, it's it's 752 00:35:59,239 --> 00:36:02,000 Speaker 3: there's that's where the art comes in, knowing when to 753 00:36:02,080 --> 00:36:05,439 Speaker 3: adjust and then when to not overreact. And so that 754 00:36:05,440 --> 00:36:08,319 Speaker 3: that's why I don't like any of these overarching things 755 00:36:08,360 --> 00:36:11,960 Speaker 3: and the art and science. It takes time, experience understanding 756 00:36:11,960 --> 00:36:15,319 Speaker 3: the market. It is not easy. But I'll give you 757 00:36:15,320 --> 00:36:20,040 Speaker 3: a perfect example is twenty nineteen Week nine Ravens. This 758 00:36:20,080 --> 00:36:22,840 Speaker 3: is probably this is my second biggest NFL bet of 759 00:36:22,880 --> 00:36:26,600 Speaker 3: all time. I first is actually I lost the I 760 00:36:26,600 --> 00:36:31,640 Speaker 3: had the Falcons plus four and I fix plus plus 761 00:36:31,680 --> 00:36:34,040 Speaker 3: four and then some under which I compared to the 762 00:36:34,040 --> 00:36:37,440 Speaker 3: plus four. I don't care. But against the Patriots and 763 00:36:37,480 --> 00:36:39,120 Speaker 3: the Super Bowl twenty eight to three, I have to 764 00:36:39,120 --> 00:36:41,640 Speaker 3: hear about it over and over and over and over 765 00:36:41,680 --> 00:36:48,160 Speaker 3: and over. Yeah. So but this is my second biggest 766 00:36:48,239 --> 00:36:53,600 Speaker 3: NFL bet and Ravens at home, and this will illustrate 767 00:36:53,680 --> 00:36:54,879 Speaker 3: kind of a lot of things that we were talking 768 00:36:54,880 --> 00:36:58,799 Speaker 3: about week nine off of buy I respect Carball and 769 00:36:58,840 --> 00:37:03,279 Speaker 3: that staff has been great off the By playing the 770 00:37:03,280 --> 00:37:05,239 Speaker 3: Patriots at home, Patriots were eight no. And if you 771 00:37:05,320 --> 00:37:10,040 Speaker 3: dug into the Patriots and the Patriots with Brady and everyone, 772 00:37:10,200 --> 00:37:12,000 Speaker 3: no one wants to fade them, and they were eight no. 773 00:37:12,120 --> 00:37:14,400 Speaker 3: But they played nobody the entire year. I mean, I 774 00:37:14,480 --> 00:37:16,480 Speaker 3: think Luke Faulk was one of the quarterbacks they played. 775 00:37:16,560 --> 00:37:20,280 Speaker 3: They also had the most extreme turnover luck of I've 776 00:37:20,320 --> 00:37:22,680 Speaker 3: ever seen in my life, just a completely fraudulent ain't no. 777 00:37:22,760 --> 00:37:24,480 Speaker 3: I mean, they be who they should be, but they 778 00:37:24,480 --> 00:37:27,000 Speaker 3: were the turnovers, the block punts, block kicks, I mean, 779 00:37:27,480 --> 00:37:30,239 Speaker 3: and then their rush defense numbers. The Browns kind of 780 00:37:30,239 --> 00:37:35,239 Speaker 3: exposed our Remember we're troubling and the Ravens awful by 781 00:37:35,719 --> 00:37:38,880 Speaker 3: coming in here, perfect opportunity primetime at home to sell 782 00:37:39,400 --> 00:37:41,879 Speaker 3: the Patriots and guess what the Ravens do the best 783 00:37:41,960 --> 00:37:46,480 Speaker 3: rushing team in the NFL at the time, And this 784 00:37:46,560 --> 00:37:48,719 Speaker 3: is where I thought the weakness of the Patriots defense was. 785 00:37:49,320 --> 00:37:52,880 Speaker 3: Everything was aligning like you know your matchup, your situation, 786 00:37:53,080 --> 00:37:55,719 Speaker 3: the number because of this, because the Patriots, you know, 787 00:37:55,760 --> 00:38:01,480 Speaker 3: people's The NFL is such an efficient market, but there's 788 00:38:01,480 --> 00:38:03,719 Speaker 3: still opportunities where the lines are off. And this is 789 00:38:03,840 --> 00:38:06,520 Speaker 3: perfectly ulswer just halfway through the season some of the 790 00:38:06,560 --> 00:38:08,719 Speaker 3: saw and earlier in the week some of the softer book. 791 00:38:08,920 --> 00:38:10,640 Speaker 3: I think that for a minute or two it opened 792 00:38:10,640 --> 00:38:14,239 Speaker 3: at six Ravens plus six at home. It was outrageous. 793 00:38:14,239 --> 00:38:17,080 Speaker 3: I remember tweeting about it the sunthing right before at 794 00:38:17,080 --> 00:38:19,480 Speaker 3: the bar, I'm like, this is crazy, hit this if 795 00:38:19,520 --> 00:38:22,160 Speaker 3: you can bet it, and then I ended up betting 796 00:38:22,200 --> 00:38:25,600 Speaker 3: at like four, and then it ended up closing at 797 00:38:25,600 --> 00:38:28,000 Speaker 3: three laterly, So if you bet the if you bet 798 00:38:28,040 --> 00:38:32,840 Speaker 3: it really right away, you know you got five six. 799 00:38:32,880 --> 00:38:34,640 Speaker 3: If you bet it, you know still that night you 800 00:38:34,719 --> 00:38:37,680 Speaker 3: got four, and then that's you know, the next day 801 00:38:37,719 --> 00:38:40,799 Speaker 3: it's three, and that's where it closed. And if the 802 00:38:40,840 --> 00:38:46,479 Speaker 3: Patriots won by three, a very common result than anyone 803 00:38:46,520 --> 00:38:48,080 Speaker 3: who got it early one and anyone who got it 804 00:38:48,120 --> 00:38:50,000 Speaker 3: late pushed and that adds up over the time. The 805 00:38:50,120 --> 00:38:53,719 Speaker 3: Ravens that ended up winning by seventeen. But that's just 806 00:38:54,960 --> 00:38:56,440 Speaker 3: everything in the one, like the match. 807 00:38:56,320 --> 00:39:00,000 Speaker 4: Up, the spot, the bilos sell high getting it or 808 00:39:00,200 --> 00:39:03,840 Speaker 4: in the week before it's gonna come down, knowing you 809 00:39:03,840 --> 00:39:05,759 Speaker 4: know the market and that there's gonna be sharp money 810 00:39:05,760 --> 00:39:06,560 Speaker 4: coming in on the raidings. 811 00:39:06,600 --> 00:39:09,160 Speaker 3: And then the number was off as well to my number, 812 00:39:09,200 --> 00:39:13,080 Speaker 3: which I made a pick. So everything lining up with 813 00:39:13,160 --> 00:39:18,920 Speaker 3: the buy bilo sell high overarching theme. That's an example 814 00:39:18,960 --> 00:39:21,400 Speaker 3: of the perfect spot, which you might get like maybe 815 00:39:21,440 --> 00:39:23,359 Speaker 3: one or two a year in the NFL. 816 00:39:23,840 --> 00:39:24,960 Speaker 2: Experts Guide to Betting. 817 00:39:24,960 --> 00:39:28,160 Speaker 1: Here this is the NFL addition on the Action Network 818 00:39:28,200 --> 00:39:29,759 Speaker 1: where like I say all the time, we are not 819 00:39:29,880 --> 00:39:32,520 Speaker 1: just giving you a fish, We are teaching you how 820 00:39:32,560 --> 00:39:35,399 Speaker 1: to fish. Dane Martinez, the spitting statistician, and I got 821 00:39:35,440 --> 00:39:39,480 Speaker 1: the Prime Minister of Degenerate Nations stucky. Now, you mentioned 822 00:39:39,480 --> 00:39:43,840 Speaker 1: that you don't necessarily bet a ton of props. However, 823 00:39:44,000 --> 00:39:46,960 Speaker 1: one of the other markets that you did reference, which 824 00:39:47,000 --> 00:39:51,000 Speaker 1: is growing in popularity in the NFL, is betting Live. 825 00:39:51,160 --> 00:39:52,759 Speaker 1: I want to talk to you a little bit about 826 00:39:52,800 --> 00:39:55,400 Speaker 1: betting the NFL Live because one of the things I 827 00:39:55,440 --> 00:39:58,680 Speaker 1: believe is gamescript and game flow is kind of king. 828 00:39:59,040 --> 00:40:01,279 Speaker 1: You can see a team that is down by two 829 00:40:01,360 --> 00:40:05,520 Speaker 1: touchdowns and Live gets something like that quarterback's passing attempts 830 00:40:05,560 --> 00:40:08,479 Speaker 1: prop you know, and kind of understanding what that team 831 00:40:08,600 --> 00:40:11,000 Speaker 1: is going to do down for the next two and 832 00:40:11,040 --> 00:40:13,680 Speaker 1: a half quarters. You know, I think about well points 833 00:40:13,680 --> 00:40:16,840 Speaker 1: being scored in the final two minutes of the first half, 834 00:40:17,120 --> 00:40:19,200 Speaker 1: what kind of what happens there, and how teams are 835 00:40:19,200 --> 00:40:22,000 Speaker 1: playing when they know they're going to get the second 836 00:40:22,040 --> 00:40:25,440 Speaker 1: half kickoff. There's all sorts of subtle nuances. What are 837 00:40:25,440 --> 00:40:27,600 Speaker 1: some of the things you look you look for when 838 00:40:27,640 --> 00:40:28,879 Speaker 1: betting the NFL. 839 00:40:28,600 --> 00:40:33,319 Speaker 3: Live stuck main thing. Again, it's gonna harp on the 840 00:40:33,320 --> 00:40:37,520 Speaker 3: same things, but multiple outs, right, these five live numbers 841 00:40:37,520 --> 00:40:39,520 Speaker 3: can differ. You want to get the best ones, juice 842 00:40:39,560 --> 00:40:43,319 Speaker 3: could differ significantly if I want to have all of 843 00:40:43,320 --> 00:40:47,520 Speaker 3: your options at your fingertips, if possible, getting the best number, 844 00:40:47,760 --> 00:40:50,360 Speaker 3: and so I'm key. Numbers are obviously really important to me. 845 00:40:51,360 --> 00:40:53,160 Speaker 3: So I might go into a game being like, I like, 846 00:40:53,200 --> 00:40:57,000 Speaker 3: this team never got my number, but I have a target, right, 847 00:40:57,040 --> 00:41:00,319 Speaker 3: and I'll go in and say once it hits, then 848 00:41:00,360 --> 00:41:01,080 Speaker 3: I'm going to bet it. 849 00:41:01,400 --> 00:41:01,600 Speaker 2: Right. 850 00:41:01,840 --> 00:41:04,600 Speaker 3: But everything else I don't have, like a mot is 851 00:41:04,719 --> 00:41:07,680 Speaker 3: just I'm going on feel and watching and then trying 852 00:41:07,719 --> 00:41:11,320 Speaker 3: to you know, a team might be up ten thirty 853 00:41:11,360 --> 00:41:13,279 Speaker 3: you know, ten nothing, thirty to nothing and it's all 854 00:41:13,320 --> 00:41:16,120 Speaker 3: on flukes, right and it could and trying to pick 855 00:41:16,200 --> 00:41:18,640 Speaker 3: up on certain things that the market might not because 856 00:41:18,640 --> 00:41:20,880 Speaker 3: everyone's gonna see, okay, there was a turnover, a lucky turnover, 857 00:41:20,880 --> 00:41:22,799 Speaker 3: and everyone wants to go about this team. But oh 858 00:41:22,840 --> 00:41:26,000 Speaker 3: look this that you know that there was these these 859 00:41:26,000 --> 00:41:29,480 Speaker 3: little miss one little fluke miss coverage thing led to 860 00:41:29,520 --> 00:41:33,160 Speaker 3: a huge play. All right, I'm seeing something in the 861 00:41:33,200 --> 00:41:35,560 Speaker 3: trenches where this team's going to be able to take advantage. 862 00:41:35,680 --> 00:41:39,920 Speaker 3: So really paying attention to some of again the matchup things, 863 00:41:40,480 --> 00:41:43,319 Speaker 3: and also understanding some of that going into the game, 864 00:41:43,400 --> 00:41:46,040 Speaker 3: after handicapping it all week, what I'm looking for and saying, okay, yeah, 865 00:41:46,120 --> 00:41:48,000 Speaker 3: this team really does have an advantage here. Maybe it 866 00:41:48,000 --> 00:41:50,040 Speaker 3: hasn't worked out so far, but now they're down and 867 00:41:50,080 --> 00:41:52,680 Speaker 3: I think that I'm getting a better number again key number, 868 00:41:52,760 --> 00:41:56,759 Speaker 3: best number, and now I want to come in so lot. 869 00:41:57,160 --> 00:41:58,960 Speaker 3: My live betting is a lot of art and then 870 00:41:59,000 --> 00:42:01,920 Speaker 3: incorporating everything I did all week and then just understand 871 00:42:02,000 --> 00:42:04,719 Speaker 3: trying to figure out where I'm where the market is 872 00:42:04,760 --> 00:42:07,360 Speaker 3: so I can get the best number, and then obviously 873 00:42:07,800 --> 00:42:10,440 Speaker 3: watching for key numbers. But it's a lot of matchup 874 00:42:10,480 --> 00:42:14,560 Speaker 3: stuff for me understanding how a team got there, and 875 00:42:14,600 --> 00:42:18,160 Speaker 3: then look back to softer books, softer markets. There are 876 00:42:18,239 --> 00:42:22,479 Speaker 3: softer books out there. Watch for injuries and uh if 877 00:42:22,560 --> 00:42:28,000 Speaker 3: a quarterback in college this this is even more true 878 00:42:28,480 --> 00:42:31,680 Speaker 3: if a quarterback gets hurt and looks really bad, like 879 00:42:31,920 --> 00:42:34,600 Speaker 3: a star quarterback, and it looks really really bad, you know, 880 00:42:34,680 --> 00:42:38,080 Speaker 3: you'll see quickly. It'll come off the board at most places. 881 00:42:38,080 --> 00:42:39,680 Speaker 3: But there's gonna be books that are slow to react. 882 00:42:41,000 --> 00:42:43,839 Speaker 3: And that happens during the week too. Like you hear 883 00:42:43,880 --> 00:42:46,960 Speaker 3: a quarterback is ruled out with COVID or checked, You're 884 00:42:47,000 --> 00:42:50,040 Speaker 3: you're gonna have softer books. See if there's a rogue 885 00:42:50,080 --> 00:42:51,799 Speaker 3: number still out there. You gotta be quick, You gotta 886 00:42:51,840 --> 00:42:56,759 Speaker 3: be utilized. Notifications always on your phone. It's a but yeah, 887 00:42:56,760 --> 00:42:58,200 Speaker 3: those are some of the things that I look for 888 00:42:58,520 --> 00:43:01,239 Speaker 3: when one betting live. 889 00:43:02,120 --> 00:43:04,279 Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, anything from like you said, matchups to 890 00:43:04,320 --> 00:43:06,799 Speaker 1: gamescript to even if someone goes into the blue tent 891 00:43:07,160 --> 00:43:09,560 Speaker 1: can be a tell for a live bet. Stuck in 892 00:43:09,600 --> 00:43:12,399 Speaker 1: my last question for you here on the Experts Guide 893 00:43:12,400 --> 00:43:15,240 Speaker 1: to Betting the NFL is I mean, you know, everybody, 894 00:43:15,320 --> 00:43:17,800 Speaker 1: like we talked about, right, is chasing or or looking 895 00:43:17,800 --> 00:43:21,480 Speaker 1: for that high. What is for you the ultimate high 896 00:43:21,520 --> 00:43:24,400 Speaker 1: in betting the NFL? Is it kind of you know, 897 00:43:24,760 --> 00:43:27,240 Speaker 1: seeing that back door cover that you've been talking about 898 00:43:27,280 --> 00:43:30,160 Speaker 1: all week, or a team that you indexed early in 899 00:43:30,200 --> 00:43:32,680 Speaker 1: the season kind of being higher than the rest of 900 00:43:32,719 --> 00:43:34,800 Speaker 1: the market and all of a sudden they are seven 901 00:43:34,840 --> 00:43:35,239 Speaker 1: and three. 902 00:43:35,560 --> 00:43:36,920 Speaker 3: What is it for. 903 00:43:36,719 --> 00:43:39,080 Speaker 1: You that kind of is that boost of adrenaline or 904 00:43:39,080 --> 00:43:41,160 Speaker 1: that thrill you're still chasing one betting NFL? 905 00:43:41,719 --> 00:43:44,440 Speaker 3: Obviously, like again, not going to overtime is nice for me. 906 00:43:44,480 --> 00:43:49,200 Speaker 3: But anyway, uh, bet a dog, a dog going down 907 00:43:49,239 --> 00:43:52,680 Speaker 3: the field in epic fashion and you know, punching it 908 00:43:52,719 --> 00:43:55,080 Speaker 3: in the end zone, like fourth down after converting a 909 00:43:55,080 --> 00:43:56,640 Speaker 3: bunch of fourth downs to get in the back door, 910 00:43:56,719 --> 00:43:58,920 Speaker 3: especially the NFL where it's not like college, you onside 911 00:43:58,960 --> 00:44:00,719 Speaker 3: kicking and the other team good return. I've lost that 912 00:44:00,760 --> 00:44:02,920 Speaker 3: way in college and getting in that back door, make 913 00:44:02,960 --> 00:44:06,120 Speaker 3: the last play one second to go. Nothing better than 914 00:44:06,120 --> 00:44:07,400 Speaker 3: that except the. 915 00:44:07,800 --> 00:44:10,279 Speaker 1: Seventeen laterals on the last play of the game and 916 00:44:10,320 --> 00:44:12,759 Speaker 1: then a turnover and it winds up being seven points 917 00:44:12,840 --> 00:44:13,480 Speaker 1: or six points. 918 00:44:13,480 --> 00:44:15,800 Speaker 3: The other one I've lost. I've never had a lateral 919 00:44:15,840 --> 00:44:18,040 Speaker 3: go my way. I've had six that have gone against 920 00:44:18,040 --> 00:44:20,840 Speaker 3: me in the last player, I hate. They shouldn't count. 921 00:44:21,080 --> 00:44:25,320 Speaker 3: I shouldn't count when a team, when you have the 922 00:44:25,400 --> 00:44:28,880 Speaker 3: underdog and the favorite goes down instead of scoring, and 923 00:44:28,920 --> 00:44:31,479 Speaker 3: then you know that in the NFL, we're not messing around. 924 00:44:31,480 --> 00:44:32,839 Speaker 3: It's you know, we're not We don't need to put 925 00:44:32,880 --> 00:44:35,160 Speaker 3: style points up. We're taking these. I shouldn't say why 926 00:44:35,160 --> 00:44:37,600 Speaker 3: I love fading Brady, but why when I have money 927 00:44:37,600 --> 00:44:41,600 Speaker 3: against Brady and he has the ball up but he's 928 00:44:41,640 --> 00:44:44,399 Speaker 3: not covering. I know that he's probably going to run 929 00:44:44,440 --> 00:44:46,879 Speaker 3: the last four minutes out in methodical fashion and then 930 00:44:46,920 --> 00:44:49,200 Speaker 3: get his team throw a little out on like third 931 00:44:49,239 --> 00:44:51,560 Speaker 3: and four for five yards at like the ten, and 932 00:44:51,600 --> 00:44:54,000 Speaker 3: then come out and kneel at The Eagles game comes 933 00:44:54,000 --> 00:44:56,560 Speaker 3: to mind. I had the Texans when Nick Chubb went 934 00:44:56,600 --> 00:44:59,280 Speaker 3: down at the one yard line. You have that feeling 935 00:44:59,320 --> 00:45:01,560 Speaker 3: where it's, oh, you're he broke and then he goes down. 936 00:45:01,680 --> 00:45:03,800 Speaker 3: I think Brian Westbrook with the Eagles is the first 937 00:45:03,840 --> 00:45:08,040 Speaker 3: one that feeling of and this Collins I never go down, 938 00:45:08,320 --> 00:45:10,720 Speaker 3: but that feeling of oh my god, I just lost 939 00:45:10,760 --> 00:45:12,759 Speaker 3: to oh my god, he went down and you know 940 00:45:12,800 --> 00:45:15,840 Speaker 3: the knees are coming is just a thrilling swing of 941 00:45:15,880 --> 00:45:20,200 Speaker 3: emotions and something I'll never get tired of. But you know, 942 00:45:20,239 --> 00:45:22,239 Speaker 3: and you can follow people on the action network that 943 00:45:22,320 --> 00:45:24,080 Speaker 3: you trust that we have a lot of smart people 944 00:45:24,080 --> 00:45:27,080 Speaker 3: out there. You follow myself having a good network of people, 945 00:45:27,160 --> 00:45:29,319 Speaker 3: whether it can help you get a bet down or 946 00:45:29,400 --> 00:45:32,080 Speaker 3: just information, so like I have, That's what I spend 947 00:45:32,200 --> 00:45:34,280 Speaker 3: a lot of my week doing too. I like, for example, 948 00:45:34,280 --> 00:45:37,680 Speaker 3: I have a really sharp bills friend who will send me, 949 00:45:38,000 --> 00:45:40,480 Speaker 3: you know, he's looking at all the stuff at his team, right, 950 00:45:40,520 --> 00:45:42,520 Speaker 3: and then I'm trying to do the same. But he's 951 00:45:42,560 --> 00:45:44,799 Speaker 3: immersed in his team way more than I am, and 952 00:45:44,840 --> 00:45:46,960 Speaker 3: I'm trying to handle them all. So he'll send me 953 00:45:47,000 --> 00:45:50,440 Speaker 3: these like really insider type articles or say look at this, 954 00:45:50,880 --> 00:45:53,280 Speaker 3: look at you know, we're much better with this offensive 955 00:45:53,320 --> 00:45:55,520 Speaker 3: line information with him out. I don't like to talk 956 00:45:55,560 --> 00:45:58,480 Speaker 3: to someone too much to still what you know, kind 957 00:45:58,480 --> 00:46:01,440 Speaker 3: of to bias myself information bias, right, But having a 958 00:46:01,480 --> 00:46:05,200 Speaker 3: good network that information is king and that will only 959 00:46:05,280 --> 00:46:06,239 Speaker 3: make you smarter better. 960 00:46:06,560 --> 00:46:11,120 Speaker 1: No, absolutely, you are always and constantly kind of consuming information. 961 00:46:11,440 --> 00:46:13,600 Speaker 1: You don't always have to be the smartest person in 962 00:46:13,640 --> 00:46:16,120 Speaker 1: the room. But if you know the smartest person in 963 00:46:16,160 --> 00:46:19,600 Speaker 1: the room. That'll work just the same, Absolutely slucky, and 964 00:46:19,680 --> 00:46:23,480 Speaker 1: remember consuming this information you could always do on the 965 00:46:23,560 --> 00:46:27,840 Speaker 1: Action Network app by subscribing to the Action Network YouTube 966 00:46:27,920 --> 00:46:30,759 Speaker 1: channel and checking out all of our folks whether it 967 00:46:30,800 --> 00:46:32,200 Speaker 1: be on social media. 968 00:46:31,960 --> 00:46:33,040 Speaker 2: Or on the app. 969 00:46:33,080 --> 00:46:37,000 Speaker 1: So this has been another episode of the Action Networks 970 00:46:37,000 --> 00:46:39,719 Speaker 1: the Expert series, this time how to Bet the NFL. 971 00:46:39,960 --> 00:46:42,440 Speaker 1: We hope you enjoyed it and we hope you learned 972 00:46:42,480 --> 00:46:43,560 Speaker 1: something from it. 973 00:46:43,760 --> 00:46:45,719 Speaker 2: Have a good one. We'll talk about it more next time.