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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast.

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Speaker 2: What's going On?

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Speaker 3: Everybody?

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Speaker 4: And welcome back to get another edition of our series here,

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Speaker 4: the Experts Guide to Betting. Here on the Action Network

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Speaker 4: today we're doing the Expert Guide to Betting Major League

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Speaker 4: Baseball and who better to have to learn how to fish?

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Speaker 4: As I always say that our guy Sean Zarrillo and

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Speaker 4: b J Cunningham, what's going on, guys.

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Speaker 3: How are you go?

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Speaker 5: Well?

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Speaker 1: Dan?

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Speaker 5: Thank you for having me happy to talk some MLB

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Speaker 5: betting advice because the sport could be excruciating to bet on,

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Speaker 5: so maybe we can give tips to help people make

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Speaker 5: it a little bit more enjoyable.

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Speaker 6: It's a long season here, and we're just hoping to

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Speaker 6: help people out over that long stretch and helpful at

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Speaker 6: the end of the season be up some money.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, that's the thing, right.

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Speaker 4: Everybody that I talk to who bets baseball talks about

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Speaker 4: it as a marathon, not a spring.

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Speaker 3: Talks about it as a grind, kind of every day

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Speaker 3: for six months having to do this.

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Speaker 4: So I guess the first thing I got to ask you,

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Speaker 4: guys both, is what actually makes you an expert in

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Speaker 4: being able to ride this grind and be profitable? Like, guys,

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Speaker 4: how long have you been doing this and how have

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Speaker 4: you managed to kind of be on the black side

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Speaker 4: of the ledger?

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Speaker 5: Well, I started out fourteen fifteen years ago, which makes

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Speaker 5: me sound like an old man at this point, but

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Speaker 5: I was in high school and the first thing that

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Speaker 5: caught my eye was home run futures, betting players to

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Speaker 5: lead the league in home run seeing that long shot odds.

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Speaker 5: It's kind of like betting golf futures where you get

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Speaker 5: that that tote board with all those long prices. It's

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Speaker 5: like betting first round leader or top player in a group,

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Speaker 5: top tens, things like that, so you can Actually this

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Speaker 5: is something I always encourage people to do. Betting different

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Speaker 5: sports kind of gives you an insight into what it's

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Speaker 5: like to bet on other sports, where betting golf futures

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Speaker 5: has led me to having more success betting on baseball futures.

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Speaker 5: So eventually, over time I wanted to learn how to

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Speaker 5: bet this sport on a day to day basis, because

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Speaker 5: everybody always told me it was unprofitable and were my time.

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Speaker 5: Anything could happen a baseball game, And while that is true,

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Speaker 5: I built a model in late twenty eighteen started using

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Speaker 5: it for the twenty nineteen season when I was contributed

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Speaker 5: for Action and there were ups and downs to be sure,

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Speaker 5: but we've had multiple successful, profitable seasons. I have over

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Speaker 5: seven thousand baseball bats tracked in the Action Network app

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Speaker 5: at this point, have over twenty one hundred bets midway

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Speaker 5: through the twenty two seasons. So it is a lot

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Speaker 5: of volume, a lot of consistency. But over that time,

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Speaker 5: I basically built up a handstample, like playing thousands of

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Speaker 5: poker hands, where I know what I'm good at, what

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Speaker 5: I need to adjust, where I can improve.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean, I'm My story is kind of similar

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Speaker 6: to Sean. So I started betting pretty much every sport,

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Speaker 6: but especially baseball in about twenty eleven when I was

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Speaker 6: a freshman in college, really just I'd played baseball in

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Speaker 6: my life and was just really interested in seeing if

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Speaker 6: it could be profitable from a long run standpoint.

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Speaker 2: And you know, first.

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Speaker 6: Off, I didn't know what models were projections were back then,

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Speaker 6: And I'm similar to Sean.

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Speaker 2: Around twenty fifteen twenty sixteen.

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Speaker 6: When I was an accountant and I finally learned how

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Speaker 6: to muse it sell, I started building out a projection

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Speaker 6: model based on base runs after reading a book called

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Speaker 6: Trading Bases, which really intrigued me and got me kind

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Speaker 6: of down this path of using projections not only for

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Speaker 6: baseball but for every single sport, and really treating baseball

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Speaker 6: as kind of an investment strategy rather than just a

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Speaker 6: gambling strategy that over the long run, if you're consistently

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Speaker 6: betting things that have expected value, well, in the long run,

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Speaker 6: you're gonna end up making money. Now, that's not going

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Speaker 6: to be true from maybe even a fully season standpoint,

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Speaker 6: but as we go further and further into the future,

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Speaker 6: if I consistently keep betting things that have expected value

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Speaker 6: based on a projection model that has shown that it

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Speaker 6: can make money over time, then you know, I'm going

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Speaker 6: to keep betting the support on a daily basis and

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Speaker 6: just ride the waves, the downswings.

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Speaker 3: And the upswings.

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Speaker 4: I mean, so the bonafides are clearly there, and I

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Speaker 4: love the way you guys kind of describe it as

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Speaker 4: having your own model, but then and kind of getting

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Speaker 4: honed over time.

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Speaker 3: It's like me playing blackjack. Eventually, I just know what

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Speaker 3: to do when I have an.

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Speaker 4: Eleven facing a six, right, and so you get a

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Speaker 4: little bit more comfortable over time. But you guys talk

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Speaker 4: about how hard it is. Let's start from the beginning, like,

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Speaker 4: what are some of the basics that people will have

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Speaker 4: to learn to try to be profitable in this market?

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Speaker 4: What are some of the fun foundational pillars you need

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Speaker 4: to know? I mean, one of the things I think of,

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Speaker 4: guys is, I mean, you're gonna have to be comfortable

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Speaker 4: betting on some pretty bad teams. Even the worst teams

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Speaker 4: in the league may win only fifty five sixty sixty

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Speaker 4: five games a year, But if they're doing that at

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Speaker 4: plus two thirty five in those sixty three wins, then

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Speaker 4: that's really profitable.

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Speaker 3: Right. So, Sean, what are some of.

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Speaker 4: The kind of like pillars here for someone trying to

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Speaker 4: actually start to bet baseball?

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Speaker 2: Yeah?

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Speaker 5: For me, prices everything you kind of mentioned it, Dane,

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Speaker 5: I don't care about what my winning percentage is at

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Speaker 5: the end of the year. Now. I know over time,

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Speaker 5: if I'm winning about forty nine percent of my bets,

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Speaker 5: I'm doing well. If I'm winning forty five percent, I'm

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Speaker 5: breaking even if I'm losing sixty percent of my bets.

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Speaker 5: If I'm going to be winning forty percent of my bets,

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Speaker 5: I'm probably having a down period. So I need to

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Speaker 5: win about forty five percent of the time to break

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Speaker 5: even at the average odds that I'm betting. But that

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Speaker 5: being said, prices everything, absolutely everything. I don't care if

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Speaker 5: you think the Yankees are seventy five percent likely to

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Speaker 5: win tonight. That may be the case. But if you're

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Speaker 5: giving me odds saying that the team who're there facing

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Speaker 5: if I projected at twenty five percent, if you're saying

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Speaker 5: that they're only going to win twenty percent of the time,

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Speaker 5: if you're giving me plus four hundred on a line

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Speaker 5: that I have projected closer to plus three hundred, I'm

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Speaker 5: going to bet that every single time. I may not

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Speaker 5: win tonight, may not win tomorrow, but in a three

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Speaker 5: game series over the course of a season, I know

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Speaker 5: I'm expecting to come out ahead. At some point, I

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Speaker 5: may win thirty at of those one hundred bets where

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Speaker 5: you say the market says I'm only going to win

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Speaker 5: twenty five out of one hundred, So I'll take those

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Speaker 5: five wins, take those onto my profit line, and as

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Speaker 5: we said, grind out of profit. If I win a

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Speaker 5: third of a unit every day across an entire season,

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Speaker 5: I'm going to be up to sixty units head at

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Speaker 5: the end of the year. So if I just generate

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Speaker 5: that plus money, generate that small return of my investment,

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Speaker 5: three dollars back for every one hundred dollars I'm putting down,

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Speaker 5: So one hundred and three for every hundred dollars I'm

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Speaker 5: putting down. I think eventually I'm going to come out ahead.

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Speaker 5: So prices everything for me. But you really have to

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Speaker 5: get a comfortable betting on ugly things, ugly underdogs against

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Speaker 5: good teams, betting overs in games between two good pictures,

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Speaker 5: betting unders and games between two bad pictures. You have

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Speaker 5: to find the things that nobody else wants to bet.

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Speaker 5: That's generally where you're going to find your value, and

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Speaker 5: you have to stick to your price targets and don't

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Speaker 5: go beyond those.

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Speaker 4: Now, it's really like you said, talking about inching it

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Speaker 4: up the hill in some way, BJ, What about you,

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Speaker 4: you know, especially if someone who is new to this

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Speaker 4: game trying a bit baseball, what would be some of

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Speaker 4: the things you would tell them right out the gate.

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Speaker 6: If you're handicapping baseball, remove general statistics like batting average,

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Speaker 6: R and RBIs from any of your handicapping, because in

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Speaker 6: today's age, they don't mean anything. Well, and this is

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Speaker 6: more specifically in sports betting in general, we're not betting

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Speaker 6: on what's happened in the past. We're trying to bet

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Speaker 6: on what's going to happen in the future, essentially the

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Speaker 6: game in front of us. So using expected indicators like

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Speaker 6: expected ERA, expected FIP, expected weighed on base average, expected

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Speaker 6: batting average, all of these things are much more useful

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Speaker 6: and much more predictive of what a team, or especially

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Speaker 6: a pitcher is going to be in the long run.

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Speaker 6: So for let's just take, for example, there's a game

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Speaker 6: in the middle of the season between the Orioles and

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Speaker 6: the Cubs. Oriols had Spencer Watkins on the mound, the

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Speaker 6: Cubs had Justin Steele. If you look at everything on paper,

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Speaker 6: Spencer Watkins has around a three point ninety RA. Justin

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Speaker 6: Steele is around four point one. Well, if we dig

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Speaker 6: into those expected indicators, well, Spencer Watkins has drastically been

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Speaker 6: overperforming his metrics and he's around a five point four

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Speaker 6: expected the RA, while Justin Steel is underperforming, where his

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Speaker 6: expected the ARA is around three point three. So you're

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Speaker 6: getting almost like a two run difference between starting pitchers

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Speaker 6: that on paper look very similar. So it's situations like

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Speaker 6: that where you can generate a profit and then price

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Speaker 6: point is everything. On that same game, you know, the

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Speaker 6: Cubs opened at minus one twenty five and then they

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Speaker 6: close at minus one fifty. Because people see those type

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Speaker 6: of regression stats, they're going to happen. So getting those

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Speaker 6: lines early get him at the best possible price point

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Speaker 6: that you can. You know, if you follow Sean in

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Speaker 6: the app, he always gives you the price point of

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Speaker 6: where he's going to stop betting it. So, yeah, if

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Speaker 6: you can see that and you can bet it within

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Speaker 6: that price range, you know, again, like we've mentioned, over

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Speaker 6: the long run, you will be able to at least

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Speaker 6: in theory turn of profit.

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Speaker 2: Now it might not be one year, but over a

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Speaker 2: long run of two three years.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 4: One of the things I really love Sean that you

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Speaker 4: do in the app, you know, and BJ just mentioned

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Speaker 4: it is when you make a play. You know, the

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Speaker 4: line might be, you know, minus one sixty five, and

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Speaker 4: you'll say bet it to minus one forty five, you know,

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Speaker 4: or whatever the case may be for that specific bet,

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Speaker 4: giving people kind of the actual range of when this

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Speaker 4: is still valuable to do up until what markers so we.

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Speaker 3: Really like that.

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Speaker 4: And Sean, you know, you also mentioned earlier the idea of,

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Speaker 4: you know, betting on other sports to kind of hone

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Speaker 4: your craft as well. But what what is actually unique

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Speaker 4: to betting baseball, you know, or Major League Baseball? Where

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Speaker 4: the saying always is right momentum is the name of

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Speaker 4: tomorrow's starting pitcher. We have so many markets besides just

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Speaker 4: the side and the total, we have first five markets

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Speaker 4: to bet which are really unique to the game, where

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Speaker 4: you can isolate the bullpen or the starting pitcher. And then,

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Speaker 4: to be quite honest, the thing I always ask every

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Speaker 4: day during the summer if the Cubs are at home

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Speaker 4: is what direction is the wind blowing out? So that's

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Speaker 4: a really interesting feature that doesn't necessarily happen in other sports.

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Speaker 4: What are some of the things that maybe unique to

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Speaker 4: betting Major League Baseball?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, as you mentioned, whether it's certain parks is completely

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Speaker 5: dramatic and can totally influence a total being at eleven

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Speaker 5: and a half versus seven and a half at Ridleyfield,

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Speaker 5: whether it's blowing out or in really one of the

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Speaker 5: more dramatic ones for that. But whether the roof is

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Speaker 5: closed that certain parks two in Arizona or in Texas

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Speaker 5: can really influence the total as well.

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Speaker 1: They should have closed the roof in ninth inning of

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Speaker 1: Game seven in two thousand and one. First of all,

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Speaker 1: that's why they spent a million dollars for the roof.

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Speaker 3: And you get a little strip there going you know whatever,

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Speaker 3: I digress. I'm sorry, go ahead.

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Speaker 5: Shot now, I mean, And it happens in the middle

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Speaker 5: of the game sometimes where in Arizona they'll open the

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Speaker 5: roof or they'll shut the roof and the run environment

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Speaker 5: will completely change. So you may have a bed under

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Speaker 5: and over and undergoing into the game that look good,

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Speaker 5: and you bet it based upon the dynamics of the

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Speaker 5: stadium going into that matchup, and then the stadium environment

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Speaker 5: may change in the middle of the game. But these

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Speaker 5: teams play these games play out completely differently at different parks.

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Speaker 5: You look at park like Open which is massive foul

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Speaker 5: ground territory. Well, they tend to acquire a lot of

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Speaker 5: starting pitchers to generate pop ups because they're going to

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Speaker 5: get a lot of free outs, footballs and foul territory

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Speaker 5: that would just go out of play at other parks.

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Speaker 5: But one thing I will say, and we talked about

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Speaker 5: it being a grind. The time horizon is very short.

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Speaker 5: There's basically fifteen games every day, five out of the

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Speaker 5: seven days out of the week, NBA, NHL.

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Speaker 3: It's rare.

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Speaker 5: I would say it's more rare that all the teams

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Speaker 5: are playing in a given day. NFL, you're handicapping for

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Speaker 5: two or three days per week as opposed to handicapping

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Speaker 5: every single day. So to be prepared to make a

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Speaker 5: lot of bets every day to pay big positive and

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Speaker 5: negative swings because you're probably going to have a lot

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Speaker 5: of action on a particular day. And guessing the lineups

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Speaker 5: can be where it's really difficult. You don't know if

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Speaker 5: certain star players are going to be out. They may

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Speaker 5: get announced out late. The lineups are only going to

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Speaker 5: come out three four hours before a game, so you're

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Speaker 5: kind of guessing who's going to be in the lineup.

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Speaker 5: Mike Trout may leave the lineup the night before getting

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Speaker 5: hit or getting hit by pitch, getting hurt, So is

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Speaker 5: he going to be in the lineup tomorrow? They're saying

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Speaker 5: he's day to day, so you have to probably assume

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Speaker 5: he's out, and then if he's in, you may have

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Speaker 5: to adjust your projection on the fly and end up

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Speaker 5: adjusting how you bet that game by on or off

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Speaker 5: your position. And then on top of that, I think

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Speaker 5: starting pitchers may influence lines for a game even more

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Speaker 5: than quarterbacks influence a line for a football game. I

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Speaker 5: think starting pitchers drive about seventy percent of the line

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Speaker 5: for any MLB game. So who's the starting pitcher is

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Speaker 5: going to be? It's very difficult for me to give

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Speaker 5: you a line unless you tell me who the starting

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Speaker 5: pitcher is going to be, And sometimes teams hold those

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Speaker 5: back until a few hours before first pitch. So you're

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Speaker 5: trying to hit moving targets very often with lineups projecting

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Speaker 5: lineups projecting starting pitchers. One thing you can control seeing

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Speaker 5: which relievers are rested, knowing which relievers might be rested

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Speaker 5: coming into the game, which teams are willing to use

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Speaker 5: certain relievers when they're a head, when they're behind. So

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Speaker 5: we'll talk about live betting in a bit, but all

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Speaker 5: of that feeds into knowing your bullpens, knowing who's available,

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Speaker 5: and everything else. You're basically trying to hit moving targets

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Speaker 5: with expectant lineups.

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Speaker 3: No, it's absolutely true.

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Speaker 4: You know you talked about injury, but I thought about

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Speaker 4: that as well, billpen availability on a day by day basis,

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Speaker 4: you talk about the starting pitcher. I mean, it's interesting

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Speaker 4: sometimes the Dodgers are still minus one to eighty with TBD.

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Speaker 3: As their starter.

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Speaker 4: But outside out of that, you know, the starting pitcher

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Speaker 4: obviously moves the needle.

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Speaker 3: Hey, BJ, what about you?

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Speaker 4: What are some of the things you look about that

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Speaker 4: maybe unique to betting baseball?

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Speaker 3: Like some things the schedule I think matters.

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Speaker 4: We have double headers in Major League Baseball where we

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Speaker 4: don't have that in other sports.

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Speaker 3: We've got the day game after.

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Speaker 4: A night game, getaway day on Wednesday's midweek. How are

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Speaker 4: some of these other kind of intricacies of the Major

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Speaker 4: League Baseball schedule actually impact the way.

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Speaker 3: You bet baseball?

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Speaker 6: Yeah, so it's seeing to Shann's point about how it's

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Speaker 6: betting sports is very differently. So if you're betting a sport,

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Speaker 6: you know, for example, like college football or NFL, what

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Speaker 6: I'm doing throughout the week is I'm watching the market

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Speaker 6: for Saturday and Sunday. So I'm trying to get the

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Speaker 6: best possible line that I can, whether it be that

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Speaker 6: on Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, whatever it is.

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Speaker 2: Baseball is just a quick turnaround.

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Speaker 6: So for me, I mean, I know Sean does this

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Speaker 6: as well, but the night before I'm grinding projections. I'm

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Speaker 6: trying to figure out, Okay, which games or teams am

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Speaker 6: I showing value on and which lines do I need

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Speaker 6: to hit right now.

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Speaker 2: It's what's very unique about baseball.

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Speaker 6: You know, obviously we talk about the grind for four, five,

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Speaker 6: you know, six months, but managing those type of swings

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Speaker 6: and knowing that in the long.

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Speaker 2: Run you're going to be okay is honestly kind of

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Speaker 2: tough to handle.

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Speaker 6: You know, Baseball there's so much unpredictably from a day

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Speaker 6: to day basis, just a grind more than anything else,

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Speaker 6: because it's the only sport that, like Sean said, we

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Speaker 6: could get every single team playing for in a given

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Speaker 6: day for one hundred and sixty two games. No other

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Speaker 6: league is playing that many games on a day to

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Speaker 6: day basis. So these swings and these outcomes and everything

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Speaker 6: are right there for the taking on a.

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Speaker 2: Day to day basis.

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Speaker 6: So it's it's a difficult sport to kind of guide,

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Speaker 6: you know, steer the ship and try and manage it

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Speaker 6: with a bankroll and everything like that. But you know,

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Speaker 6: if you're managing your bankroll correctly. You know, hopefully the

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Speaker 6: swings aren't too Hopefully these swings don't go too far

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Speaker 6: to the pendulum to the right or the left in

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Speaker 6: terms of how much money you're winning or losing.

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Speaker 4: Talking with BJ Cunningham and Sean Zarrillo here, I'm Dane Martinez,

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Speaker 4: the spit and statistician. This is another episode of the

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Speaker 4: Experts Guide to Betting here on the Action Network. You know,

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Speaker 4: you guys are continuing to talk about the grind and

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Speaker 4: your process. Take us a little bit into your process,

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Speaker 4: and I guess it's a two part thing. Sean, We'll

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Speaker 4: start with you. You know, you talk about the projections on

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Speaker 4: a day to day basis, But what about before the season,

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Speaker 4: you know, the winter meetings are done, free agency is finished,

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Speaker 4: we finally have a work agreement, let's say, and there

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Speaker 4: are no stoppages in any given season. Before the season starts,

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Speaker 4: what are some of your processes maybe to index players,

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Speaker 4: starting pitchers, teams and the like, and then tell us

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Speaker 4: a little bit about the day to day grind as

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Speaker 4: we've been calling it.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I think it's important to separate those two out

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Speaker 5: because once the season starts, I kind of throw away

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Speaker 5: my preseason process. I'm using my preseason process to project

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Speaker 5: out how teams are going to play over the course

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Speaker 5: of one hundred and sixty two games into the playoffs,

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Speaker 5: trying to find value on futures, whether it's stat leaders,

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Speaker 5: player awards, World Series futures, divisional odds, and I think

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Speaker 5: there's a variety of resources that you can use to

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Speaker 5: do that, whether you take my own projections and I

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Speaker 5: use player projections that you can find publicly available to

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Speaker 5: create my own win projections, but there are other sites

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Speaker 5: who do that for you, like fangrafs, Baseball Perspectives, as

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Speaker 5: Pakoda Davenport puts out his own standings projections. So you

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Speaker 5: can take those projections, sort of combine them, create a

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Speaker 5: composite and if you're showing value on win totals across

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Speaker 5: all three of those projections, are averaging them out. If

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Speaker 5: you're showing value on World Series futures or divisional futures

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Speaker 5: across multiple of those systems, I would say there's a

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Speaker 5: good chance there's actionable value on that number. Same goes

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Speaker 5: for player projections. I try to bucket guys based on

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Speaker 5: where they are on leaderboards. But again it all comes

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Speaker 5: back to price. It all comes down to price and

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Speaker 5: where I see the projective number relative to the market.

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Speaker 5: If I see two projection systems telling me that the

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Speaker 5: Brewers are forty percent likely to win a division, or

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Speaker 5: even coming into this year, two that were said that

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Speaker 5: there were eighty percent likely to win the division, I

384
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Speaker 5: can get them at minus one eighty five when they

385
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Speaker 5: should be minus four hundred. I'm absolutely going to bet

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Speaker 5: that projected gap in value as I perceive it. But basically,

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Speaker 5: composite different projection systems that you see out there, try

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Speaker 5: to find value relative to those, and I think that's

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Speaker 5: a pretty good starting point to have your process, but

390
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Speaker 5: then throw it away once the season starts because you

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Speaker 5: need to project these games on an individual basis. I

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Speaker 5: don't care about trends. I think trends are largely overrated.

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Speaker 5: They're very convenient to talk about, saying teams are X

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Speaker 5: and X at home and their last whatever. All of

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Speaker 5: that is irrelevant to me. What is the projected number

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Speaker 5: that you put on this game based on the players,

397
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Speaker 5: based on the expected lineups, based on the starting pitchers.

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Speaker 5: What is the projected number that you come down to

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Speaker 5: for that specific game. Streaks happen. Streaks are not predictive.

400
00:17:23,400 --> 00:17:25,760
Speaker 5: It's just it's a thing that people love to ride.

401
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Speaker 5: You will get teams who have gone on long winning streaks,

402
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Speaker 5: long losing streaks. There's nothing actually predictive about them. Their

403
00:17:31,240 --> 00:17:33,320
Speaker 5: hitters may all be behitting better at the same time,

404
00:17:33,680 --> 00:17:35,800
Speaker 5: maybe their bullpen is all struggling at the same time.

405
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Speaker 5: But by and large, all these players should regress to

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Speaker 5: their baseline and their projections. So what is the number

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Speaker 5: for the specific game? As VJ said, from nine pm

408
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Speaker 5: to one am two am, I'm grinding out where I

409
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Speaker 5: think the number should be, shopping for the best available lines,

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Speaker 5: and then betting my perceived edges. Once the day flips

411
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Speaker 5: over in the morning, I'm readjusting for weather, readjusting for

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Speaker 5: expected umpires, maybe some innews updates. Typically I have ten

413
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Speaker 5: to fifteen bets overnight, and then I'll add about ten

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Speaker 5: more bets in the morning before games, and then as

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Speaker 5: we get closer to the games, I'll recheck all my

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Speaker 5: lines as lineups get announced before those slates start, whether

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Speaker 5: there's ten games at seven pm and five at ten pm,

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Speaker 5: or whether there's three each at one pm, four pm,

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Speaker 5: seven pm, and ten pm On a Saturday, for instance,

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Speaker 5: where they're more spread out. So I'm constantly constantly checking

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Speaker 5: the lines is a never ending process. People would be

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Speaker 5: shocked at the amount of time that I dedicate just

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Speaker 5: to looking at lines, making sure things haven't moved, double

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Speaker 5: checking my process, double checking the numbers. It is completely exhausting,

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Speaker 5: but that is what it requires if you want to

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Speaker 5: get an edge on the sport.

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Speaker 4: That's interesting you talk about how eventually things kind of

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Speaker 4: go back to the back of the baseball card, right,

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Speaker 4: there is a reason that that's saying kind of exists

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Speaker 4: in the first place. So Sean is not looking at

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Speaker 4: if this guy's hitting four thirty seven when there's a

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Speaker 4: full moon outside on Thursdays, for example, as a trend BJ.

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Speaker 3: You know Sean a lot of his process. What about yours?

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Speaker 3: Is it similar?

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Speaker 4: Both preseason and once we are in the kind of

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Speaker 4: marathon that is the boys of summer.

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Speaker 6: Working on a number of different sports here at the

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Speaker 6: action new work, it does become exhausting to you know,

439
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Speaker 6: we get betting, baseball, college football, soccer, all these different

440
00:19:16,000 --> 00:19:18,480
Speaker 6: things at once. I laugh because when Sean says I'm

441
00:19:18,520 --> 00:19:20,600
Speaker 6: constantly double checking lines, like I feel like I'm in

442
00:19:20,640 --> 00:19:24,840
Speaker 6: the Action Work app every single day, constantly rechecking every

443
00:19:24,880 --> 00:19:27,600
Speaker 6: single line to make sure that, oh, did something become

444
00:19:27,640 --> 00:19:30,159
Speaker 6: available or come within range of what my you know,

445
00:19:30,200 --> 00:19:32,720
Speaker 6: expected outcome is what I have on a projection.

446
00:19:32,400 --> 00:19:33,040
Speaker 2: And things like that.

447
00:19:33,240 --> 00:19:36,760
Speaker 6: So yeah, it's a never ending process of rechecking, double checking,

448
00:19:36,800 --> 00:19:39,800
Speaker 6: and figuring out do I have value on this game?

449
00:19:39,920 --> 00:19:42,800
Speaker 6: And like Sean said, you have to do these things

450
00:19:42,840 --> 00:19:45,600
Speaker 6: if you want to turn a profit in baseball. You

451
00:19:45,600 --> 00:19:48,560
Speaker 6: don't just you know, for example, I can go overnight

452
00:19:48,640 --> 00:19:50,600
Speaker 6: and project things and just bet them and forget about

453
00:19:50,640 --> 00:19:52,320
Speaker 6: them and figure out, you know, what happens later. But

454
00:19:53,359 --> 00:19:55,800
Speaker 6: if I'm not constantly rechecking and double checking those things,

455
00:19:55,880 --> 00:19:59,680
Speaker 6: then I'm missing potential opportunities to make to get more

456
00:20:00,320 --> 00:20:03,560
Speaker 6: bets in and give myself a better chance at getting

457
00:20:03,640 --> 00:20:06,000
Speaker 6: that three to three and a half percent edge over season,

458
00:20:06,119 --> 00:20:09,040
Speaker 6: versus just putting five bets in the app because I

459
00:20:09,040 --> 00:20:12,040
Speaker 6: have value on those and just ignoring everything until the

460
00:20:12,080 --> 00:20:15,280
Speaker 6: game starts. So again, like Sean said, it's a never

461
00:20:15,400 --> 00:20:19,560
Speaker 6: ending process of projecting, finding all the available information that

462
00:20:19,600 --> 00:20:23,119
Speaker 6: you can on these teams, and then hopefully turning a

463
00:20:23,119 --> 00:20:25,840
Speaker 6: profit in that given day or a given week in

464
00:20:25,960 --> 00:20:26,520
Speaker 6: a given year.

465
00:20:26,680 --> 00:20:28,400
Speaker 5: You do get a feel for it over time. When

466
00:20:28,440 --> 00:20:30,879
Speaker 5: the line hasn't moved for hours and hours, why it

467
00:20:30,960 --> 00:20:31,880
Speaker 5: might suddenly move.

468
00:20:32,080 --> 00:20:33,560
Speaker 2: It's probably due to line up information.

469
00:20:33,880 --> 00:20:34,760
Speaker 3: Yeah, absolutely.

470
00:20:34,880 --> 00:20:36,679
Speaker 4: And one thing both of these guys are doing, and

471
00:20:36,720 --> 00:20:40,000
Speaker 4: I recommend you do as well, is check the Action

472
00:20:40,359 --> 00:20:44,040
Speaker 4: Network app as much as possible.

473
00:20:43,680 --> 00:20:46,119
Speaker 3: Unless, of course, you are allergic to money.

474
00:20:46,160 --> 00:20:48,080
Speaker 4: One thing I want to ask both of you guys

475
00:20:48,240 --> 00:20:52,399
Speaker 4: is Major League Baseball has really evolved over the last

476
00:20:52,440 --> 00:20:54,080
Speaker 4: few years in a number of ways.

477
00:20:54,200 --> 00:20:54,400
Speaker 3: Right.

478
00:20:54,480 --> 00:20:57,720
Speaker 4: We hear about launch angle and three true outcomes. We

479
00:20:57,760 --> 00:21:01,720
Speaker 4: hear about the specialization of bulp and pitchers going shorter

480
00:21:01,880 --> 00:21:06,119
Speaker 4: and shorter into games. How have these kind of evolutions

481
00:21:06,240 --> 00:21:09,120
Speaker 4: in the game change your way of looking at maybe

482
00:21:09,359 --> 00:21:13,600
Speaker 4: strikeout props, totals, or any other opportunities to bet in

483
00:21:13,680 --> 00:21:14,560
Speaker 4: Major League Baseball?

484
00:21:15,000 --> 00:21:17,160
Speaker 5: Well, I don't know if it's really changed my approach

485
00:21:17,200 --> 00:21:19,760
Speaker 5: so drastically. I mean, I know we have more teams

486
00:21:19,760 --> 00:21:22,760
Speaker 5: who seem to be top heavy and more teams who

487
00:21:22,800 --> 00:21:25,679
Speaker 5: seem to be kicking the can from the moment that

488
00:21:25,720 --> 00:21:28,280
Speaker 5: the season starts. You know, there's a wider range of

489
00:21:28,280 --> 00:21:30,159
Speaker 5: outcomes than these teams. There's going to be more one

490
00:21:30,240 --> 00:21:33,320
Speaker 5: hundred loss teams probably in twenty twenty two than there

491
00:21:33,359 --> 00:21:35,560
Speaker 5: have been in some time, so it really does change

492
00:21:35,920 --> 00:21:38,960
Speaker 5: on a year to year basis. But that said, I'm

493
00:21:39,000 --> 00:21:42,000
Speaker 5: still using very similar stats to stats that I've used

494
00:21:42,000 --> 00:21:44,560
Speaker 5: in the past few years. Expected stats, I know, Dan,

495
00:21:44,640 --> 00:21:46,760
Speaker 5: you said teams tend to regress, players tend to regress

496
00:21:46,760 --> 00:21:48,640
Speaker 5: towards their stats on the back of the baseball card.

497
00:21:49,000 --> 00:21:51,480
Speaker 5: For me, it's players tend to regress towards the stats

498
00:21:51,520 --> 00:21:54,760
Speaker 5: on their stat cast page, things like expected wOBA, they're

499
00:21:54,840 --> 00:21:58,000
Speaker 5: expected yar ray. I view batted ball data as sort

500
00:21:58,000 --> 00:22:01,520
Speaker 5: of these new age predictive indicate that people aren't fully

501
00:22:01,640 --> 00:22:03,240
Speaker 5: versed in yet, and if you really want to get

502
00:22:03,240 --> 00:22:06,960
Speaker 5: an edge on the market, become more familiar with these

503
00:22:07,040 --> 00:22:09,639
Speaker 5: predictive stats that are based off the strikeouts, walks and

504
00:22:09,640 --> 00:22:10,320
Speaker 5: battball data.

505
00:22:10,440 --> 00:22:13,320
Speaker 3: That bad baby absolutely BJ What about you.

506
00:22:13,520 --> 00:22:16,480
Speaker 4: I'm thinking about home run props K props or anything

507
00:22:16,520 --> 00:22:19,840
Speaker 4: else that have really changed as we've seen a new

508
00:22:20,000 --> 00:22:22,800
Speaker 4: style of play in this game in a new way

509
00:22:22,840 --> 00:22:24,720
Speaker 4: that managers are even managing the game.

510
00:22:24,920 --> 00:22:27,159
Speaker 6: Yes, using a lot of these advanced metrics that are

511
00:22:27,200 --> 00:22:29,600
Speaker 6: now more available to the public and for free, I

512
00:22:29,640 --> 00:22:34,000
Speaker 6: think does help betting, K props, home run props, you know,

513
00:22:34,080 --> 00:22:36,679
Speaker 6: total base props, everything like that. You know, actually seeing

514
00:22:37,240 --> 00:22:39,560
Speaker 6: what a pitcher's pitch arsenal is and also we can

515
00:22:39,560 --> 00:22:43,199
Speaker 6: see exactly what pitches hitters are hitting well against. You know,

516
00:22:43,320 --> 00:22:45,919
Speaker 6: what's their stack cast numbers are against that, what's their

517
00:22:45,960 --> 00:22:47,680
Speaker 6: expected wined on base average.

518
00:22:47,920 --> 00:22:50,160
Speaker 2: You got to become familiar with these type of advanced metrics.

519
00:22:50,200 --> 00:22:52,399
Speaker 6: You have to dig as deep as possible as you

520
00:22:52,440 --> 00:22:54,760
Speaker 6: can to actually beat the market on a lot of

521
00:22:54,760 --> 00:22:57,720
Speaker 6: these different types of props. But again from an overall

522
00:22:57,760 --> 00:23:01,000
Speaker 6: projection standpoint on an individual game, a lot has changed

523
00:23:01,280 --> 00:23:03,360
Speaker 6: since all of these advanced metrics have.

524
00:23:03,320 --> 00:23:05,160
Speaker 2: Become available over the last five or ten years.

525
00:23:05,880 --> 00:23:08,919
Speaker 4: You know one thing that has definitely grown over the

526
00:23:08,960 --> 00:23:12,440
Speaker 4: last few years, people live betting, and in Major League

527
00:23:12,480 --> 00:23:16,320
Speaker 4: Baseball it is absolutely no different. I think betting major

528
00:23:16,400 --> 00:23:20,000
Speaker 4: League Baseball live is incredible. For example, I think they're

529
00:23:20,000 --> 00:23:24,280
Speaker 4: completely undervaluing the ghost runner at the start of extra innings.

530
00:23:24,280 --> 00:23:26,320
Speaker 4: You can get totals in the top of the eighth

531
00:23:26,600 --> 00:23:29,879
Speaker 4: that completely undervalue if the game goes to extra innings

532
00:23:29,880 --> 00:23:32,399
Speaker 4: and they put up a picket fence. You can understand

533
00:23:32,400 --> 00:23:34,560
Speaker 4: when a pitcher is going through the lineup for the

534
00:23:34,600 --> 00:23:37,359
Speaker 4: third time and may be more likely to give up runs.

535
00:23:37,359 --> 00:23:39,160
Speaker 4: Their stats out there, they show the fifth and sixth

536
00:23:39,160 --> 00:23:42,520
Speaker 4: innings are when runs are mostly scored. You know, So

537
00:23:42,800 --> 00:23:45,440
Speaker 4: what are some of the kind of rules of thumb

538
00:23:45,480 --> 00:23:50,440
Speaker 4: or things that you have found betting Major League Baseball Live, Sean, So.

539
00:23:50,359 --> 00:23:52,280
Speaker 5: It's all about timing for me, And we talked about

540
00:23:52,280 --> 00:23:55,840
Speaker 5: bothpen availability before. You definitely need to know which pitchers

541
00:23:55,880 --> 00:23:58,119
Speaker 5: are going to be available if certain teams, you know

542
00:23:58,200 --> 00:24:00,679
Speaker 5: ace reliever is out for that particular and there's a

543
00:24:00,680 --> 00:24:03,119
Speaker 5: big drop off relative to their other pitchers. But buying

544
00:24:03,240 --> 00:24:05,480
Speaker 5: large for me when I'm looking at live entries on

545
00:24:05,520 --> 00:24:08,960
Speaker 5: the money line or for spreads, it's all about timing.

546
00:24:09,000 --> 00:24:10,920
Speaker 5: I'm waiting for the lineup to flip to the top

547
00:24:10,920 --> 00:24:12,640
Speaker 5: of the order for the team that I want to back.

548
00:24:13,040 --> 00:24:16,359
Speaker 5: Hopefully I'm betting against the bottom of the order for

549
00:24:16,400 --> 00:24:18,879
Speaker 5: the team who I'm trying to bet against. But I

550
00:24:18,920 --> 00:24:21,120
Speaker 5: want to bet when my team is pitching. I want

551
00:24:21,119 --> 00:24:22,840
Speaker 5: to bet jumping on a team who is about to

552
00:24:22,840 --> 00:24:24,439
Speaker 5: pitch as opposed to a team who's going to hit,

553
00:24:24,920 --> 00:24:27,760
Speaker 5: because I want the better number. From there, you basically

554
00:24:27,760 --> 00:24:29,639
Speaker 5: need to hope that they get a scoreless inning and

555
00:24:29,680 --> 00:24:31,120
Speaker 5: then you're on the right side of the line. Because

556
00:24:31,119 --> 00:24:33,600
Speaker 5: it's like betting tennis. When you live bet tennis, you

557
00:24:33,600 --> 00:24:35,199
Speaker 5: want to bet when the other guy is serving. The

558
00:24:35,200 --> 00:24:37,760
Speaker 5: guy you want to bet against the serving as opposed

559
00:24:37,800 --> 00:24:39,960
Speaker 5: to when your guys serving, because you don't want to

560
00:24:40,000 --> 00:24:41,320
Speaker 5: bank on that hole. Do you want to bank on

561
00:24:41,359 --> 00:24:44,640
Speaker 5: the break from the other players so you are getting better,

562
00:24:44,680 --> 00:24:46,920
Speaker 5: get a better number right before your team is pitching

563
00:24:46,960 --> 00:24:48,919
Speaker 5: that you want to back. But I usually look to

564
00:24:48,960 --> 00:24:52,040
Speaker 5: bet it when I'm betting against the bottom of the

565
00:24:52,040 --> 00:24:55,479
Speaker 5: lineup for the team I'm betting against, and then on

566
00:24:55,520 --> 00:24:58,199
Speaker 5: the other side and the next half inning when the

567
00:24:58,200 --> 00:25:00,200
Speaker 5: team I'm backing is going to have the top their

568
00:25:00,240 --> 00:25:02,080
Speaker 5: lineup coming up, even if it's eight, nine to one

569
00:25:02,160 --> 00:25:03,960
Speaker 5: or nine to one, two in the order as opposed

570
00:25:04,000 --> 00:25:06,640
Speaker 5: to the first three hitters. That's basically how I'm trying

571
00:25:06,680 --> 00:25:07,840
Speaker 5: to tie my live enters.

572
00:25:08,119 --> 00:25:09,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, I totally agree with Sean.

573
00:25:09,200 --> 00:25:11,760
Speaker 6: You need to definitely get tea If you're betting against

574
00:25:11,760 --> 00:25:13,800
Speaker 6: a team, you need to basically get them towards the

575
00:25:13,800 --> 00:25:15,240
Speaker 6: bottom of their order. If you're betting on a team,

576
00:25:15,280 --> 00:25:16,919
Speaker 6: I want the top of their order coming up. You

577
00:25:17,000 --> 00:25:18,360
Speaker 6: mentioned at the top, you know, most of the runs

578
00:25:18,400 --> 00:25:20,880
Speaker 6: in Major League Baseball scored in the fifth and sixth thing, Well,

579
00:25:20,920 --> 00:25:22,919
Speaker 6: it's become a big thing, and it became a huge

580
00:25:22,920 --> 00:25:24,879
Speaker 6: thing in the World Series two years ago when the

581
00:25:24,960 --> 00:25:29,560
Speaker 6: Rays were playing the Dodgers when Kevin Cash took Blake

582
00:25:29,640 --> 00:25:32,359
Speaker 6: Snell out because he was going to face the order

583
00:25:32,359 --> 00:25:33,200
Speaker 6: for the third time.

584
00:25:33,760 --> 00:25:35,440
Speaker 2: So that's another thing that I'm getting the.

585
00:25:35,640 --> 00:25:37,960
Speaker 6: Yeah, if I'm getting the top of the lineup facing

586
00:25:38,000 --> 00:25:40,440
Speaker 6: a starting pitcher, you know, relatively it depends on the

587
00:25:40,440 --> 00:25:42,920
Speaker 6: starting picture. You know, if they're facing Jacob Degram, he's

588
00:25:42,960 --> 00:25:44,680
Speaker 6: a unique pitcher in the fact that he actually gets

589
00:25:44,720 --> 00:25:46,400
Speaker 6: better the third time through the order. But if you're

590
00:25:46,400 --> 00:25:49,720
Speaker 6: facing a normal, you know, average everyday MLB starting pitcher

591
00:25:50,000 --> 00:25:52,760
Speaker 6: and they're facing the lineup the third time, you're going

592
00:25:52,840 --> 00:25:55,600
Speaker 6: to get a drastic edge on that type of team,

593
00:25:55,680 --> 00:25:57,280
Speaker 6: especially if you're getting the top of the order up.

594
00:25:57,359 --> 00:25:59,320
Speaker 6: And I totally agree that, Sean. You definitely need to

595
00:25:59,359 --> 00:26:03,040
Speaker 6: know exactly who is in and who is out for

596
00:26:03,119 --> 00:26:06,880
Speaker 6: the bullpens because that is ultimately crucial, and honestly, knowing

597
00:26:06,920 --> 00:26:09,560
Speaker 6: bullpen statistics is also a big thing. If you want

598
00:26:09,560 --> 00:26:12,000
Speaker 6: to live bet baseball. For example, if you're betting, you

599
00:26:12,000 --> 00:26:14,080
Speaker 6: know the Kensley Royals have one of the worst bullpens

600
00:26:14,119 --> 00:26:14,800
Speaker 6: in Major League.

601
00:26:14,600 --> 00:26:15,320
Speaker 2: Baseball this year.

602
00:26:15,400 --> 00:26:18,320
Speaker 6: So if you're betting on them and they take a

603
00:26:18,320 --> 00:26:20,680
Speaker 6: big time lead against whoever the team is, well, what's

604
00:26:20,720 --> 00:26:23,600
Speaker 6: more likely their bullpen is gonna implode towards the end

605
00:26:23,840 --> 00:26:26,399
Speaker 6: than actually see the game out, So you can be

606
00:26:26,560 --> 00:26:29,920
Speaker 6: spreads and get better odds potentially there. So knowing the

607
00:26:29,960 --> 00:26:32,240
Speaker 6: bullpens getting the top of the order, you know, pitchers

608
00:26:32,240 --> 00:26:33,960
Speaker 6: third time through the lineup. There's so many things you

609
00:26:34,000 --> 00:26:36,119
Speaker 6: can do to actually live at Major League Baseball and

610
00:26:36,119 --> 00:26:37,679
Speaker 6: eventually hopefully turn profit.

611
00:26:38,040 --> 00:26:41,119
Speaker 4: Yeah, knowing that bullpen data is absolutely huge. When you

612
00:26:41,119 --> 00:26:43,439
Speaker 4: have a team with a really bad bullpen, or whose

613
00:26:43,480 --> 00:26:46,960
Speaker 4: main horses may not be available that night and they've

614
00:26:46,960 --> 00:26:48,480
Speaker 4: got a one or two run lead in the six

615
00:26:48,560 --> 00:26:51,479
Speaker 4: or seventh inning, you can get decent plus money on

616
00:26:51,520 --> 00:26:53,400
Speaker 4: the other side to be sure, Well, let me get

617
00:26:53,400 --> 00:26:55,760
Speaker 4: you out of here, guys on this. You know, we're

618
00:26:55,800 --> 00:26:57,879
Speaker 4: talking about betting baseball, and we're talking about that as

619
00:26:57,920 --> 00:26:59,280
Speaker 4: a grind, as a marathon.

620
00:26:59,480 --> 00:27:00,720
Speaker 3: But there's all obviously a.

621
00:27:00,640 --> 00:27:03,560
Speaker 4: Lot of joy and ups and you know, kind of

622
00:27:03,600 --> 00:27:06,560
Speaker 4: adrenaline that comes from it as well. So Sean, let

623
00:27:06,600 --> 00:27:09,080
Speaker 4: me start with you, like, what's kind of your favorite

624
00:27:09,160 --> 00:27:12,439
Speaker 4: or best sweat from betting Major League Baseball? Is it

625
00:27:12,600 --> 00:27:15,600
Speaker 4: identifying when you know a lowly team is going to

626
00:27:15,640 --> 00:27:17,840
Speaker 4: get hot and reel a couple off at plus two

627
00:27:17,880 --> 00:27:21,080
Speaker 4: thirty five? Or is it finding that team that is

628
00:27:21,160 --> 00:27:22,840
Speaker 4: down three runs in the six but you want to

629
00:27:22,920 --> 00:27:25,400
Speaker 4: kind of fade the bult and they're playing against what's

630
00:27:25,400 --> 00:27:28,280
Speaker 4: sort of like the ultimate thrill for you for betting

631
00:27:28,480 --> 00:27:30,680
Speaker 4: Major League Baseball? Or is it identifying one of those

632
00:27:30,720 --> 00:27:32,720
Speaker 4: teams that you thought was going to come from the clouds,

633
00:27:32,880 --> 00:27:34,000
Speaker 4: from a big future number.

634
00:27:35,600 --> 00:27:38,720
Speaker 5: I definitely love to bet futures and nailing something like

635
00:27:38,760 --> 00:27:40,800
Speaker 5: a home run leader prop, even if they're just in

636
00:27:40,960 --> 00:27:42,760
Speaker 5: hunt for it, I think is a lot of fun

637
00:27:42,800 --> 00:27:43,040
Speaker 5: for me.

638
00:27:43,359 --> 00:27:44,840
Speaker 2: That's how I started out betting.

639
00:27:44,880 --> 00:27:47,439
Speaker 5: That's what first caught my attention, and it definitely still

640
00:27:47,480 --> 00:27:50,399
Speaker 5: makes my juices flow. But at this point, the amount

641
00:27:50,480 --> 00:27:53,479
Speaker 5: that I'm betting, the volume that I'm betting at knowing

642
00:27:54,359 --> 00:27:57,160
Speaker 5: as long as I have a solid process, when I'm

643
00:27:57,200 --> 00:28:00,480
Speaker 5: getting the solid results too, when I'm getting colv and

644
00:28:00,640 --> 00:28:05,879
Speaker 5: winning games, getting that good process, good result overlap. That

645
00:28:06,040 --> 00:28:08,560
Speaker 5: is the actual thrill for me, because you can have

646
00:28:08,600 --> 00:28:11,000
Speaker 5: a good process and get bad results. You can have

647
00:28:11,040 --> 00:28:13,640
Speaker 5: a bad process and get good results. Or you could

648
00:28:13,680 --> 00:28:16,560
Speaker 5: get the bad process and the deserve bad results. But

649
00:28:16,600 --> 00:28:19,440
Speaker 5: when you have the good process, when you're consistently generating

650
00:28:19,480 --> 00:28:22,320
Speaker 5: closing line value, beating these lines by five to six percent,

651
00:28:22,800 --> 00:28:25,320
Speaker 5: and you're actually going on a sustained winning streak for

652
00:28:25,359 --> 00:28:28,840
Speaker 5: four weeks, six weeks, racking up twenty to thirty units,

653
00:28:29,280 --> 00:28:33,040
Speaker 5: just consistently building day after day after day, that brings

654
00:28:33,080 --> 00:28:34,639
Speaker 5: me the most joy because I know I have a

655
00:28:34,680 --> 00:28:35,560
Speaker 5: refined process.

656
00:28:35,680 --> 00:28:36,720
Speaker 2: It is a big market.

657
00:28:36,960 --> 00:28:39,239
Speaker 5: Baseball is a very difficult sport to bet because it

658
00:28:39,280 --> 00:28:40,880
Speaker 5: is one of the major sports, and in the middle

659
00:28:40,880 --> 00:28:43,520
Speaker 5: of the summer when there is no other game in town,

660
00:28:43,880 --> 00:28:46,120
Speaker 5: and people who normally bet football who may have some

661
00:28:46,160 --> 00:28:50,200
Speaker 5: sharp inside information on baseball from other people who model it,

662
00:28:50,240 --> 00:28:52,400
Speaker 5: and they want to take some of their action when

663
00:28:52,400 --> 00:28:54,600
Speaker 5: they're putting their money in the market too, And the

664
00:28:54,640 --> 00:28:57,960
Speaker 5: baseball market has a ton of money in it. It

665
00:28:58,040 --> 00:29:01,000
Speaker 5: is a very sharp market. The closing are very indicative

666
00:29:01,040 --> 00:29:03,000
Speaker 5: of what's going to happen. I don't care where it opened,

667
00:29:03,200 --> 00:29:04,880
Speaker 5: but where it closed. So as long as I can

668
00:29:04,920 --> 00:29:07,800
Speaker 5: take those opening numbers, beat them and beat the clothes

669
00:29:08,160 --> 00:29:11,240
Speaker 5: by twenty cents twenty five cents, and I'm getting good results,

670
00:29:11,440 --> 00:29:13,520
Speaker 5: that actually fills me with confidence and brings me a

671
00:29:13,520 --> 00:29:14,960
Speaker 5: lot of joy because I know that I have a

672
00:29:15,000 --> 00:29:18,320
Speaker 5: sound process. I've proved it over the course of multiple years.

673
00:29:18,640 --> 00:29:21,640
Speaker 5: But sometimes, as BJ said, we go through huge downswings.

674
00:29:21,640 --> 00:29:23,880
Speaker 5: You may be beating the lines but not getting the results.

675
00:29:23,880 --> 00:29:26,520
Speaker 5: And that's where it gets very frustrating because you know

676
00:29:26,600 --> 00:29:28,960
Speaker 5: you're probably on the right side of the move, you're

677
00:29:28,960 --> 00:29:32,000
Speaker 5: just not getting the desired outcome. So good process, good

678
00:29:32,000 --> 00:29:34,000
Speaker 5: results is always what I want to see, you.

679
00:29:34,000 --> 00:29:34,840
Speaker 3: Know, it's CLV.

680
00:29:35,160 --> 00:29:38,000
Speaker 1: Yeah you know me, BJ, do you think to say,

681
00:29:38,040 --> 00:29:39,480
Speaker 1: am you trusting the process?

682
00:29:39,560 --> 00:29:41,960
Speaker 3: Is that what brings you great joy as well?

683
00:29:42,400 --> 00:29:42,600
Speaker 1: Yeah?

684
00:29:43,080 --> 00:29:45,560
Speaker 6: To echo off what Sean said, you know, good process,

685
00:29:45,560 --> 00:29:48,360
Speaker 6: good results is the best feeling possible. So for example,

686
00:29:48,800 --> 00:29:52,160
Speaker 6: you know this season, Pirates swept the Dodgers and they

687
00:29:52,200 --> 00:29:54,400
Speaker 6: were plus two hundred above every single game.

688
00:29:54,520 --> 00:29:56,320
Speaker 2: They were showing value every single game.

689
00:29:56,640 --> 00:29:59,920
Speaker 6: Those are the type of outcomes where it's, oh my gosh,

690
00:30:00,320 --> 00:30:02,000
Speaker 6: you know, we might only get a few of those

691
00:30:02,040 --> 00:30:03,720
Speaker 6: a week. You know, going over a long stretch, but

692
00:30:03,720 --> 00:30:05,440
Speaker 6: getting them all in a short amount of time that

693
00:30:05,440 --> 00:30:09,360
Speaker 6: feels great. But yes, Mike Sean said, basically turning a

694
00:30:09,360 --> 00:30:12,640
Speaker 6: profit over a long run getting a good process. Getting

695
00:30:12,640 --> 00:30:15,000
Speaker 6: a good results from a good process is the best

696
00:30:15,040 --> 00:30:15,880
Speaker 6: feeling possible.

697
00:30:16,280 --> 00:30:18,880
Speaker 4: So this has been another edition of the Experts Guide

698
00:30:18,880 --> 00:30:21,920
Speaker 4: to Betting on Major League Baseball. Of course, the first

699
00:30:21,920 --> 00:30:25,080
Speaker 4: thing you should do is download the Action Network app,

700
00:30:25,160 --> 00:30:28,480
Speaker 4: subscribe to the Action Network YouTube channel so you could

701
00:30:28,560 --> 00:30:32,200
Speaker 4: see all of Sean and BJ's picks, leans and plays.

702
00:30:32,560 --> 00:30:33,320
Speaker 3: And we'll be back

703
00:30:33,360 --> 00:30:36,560
Speaker 4: Another time for another in our series of the Experts

704
00:30:36,600 --> 00:30:40,320
Speaker 4: Guides to Betting here on the Action Network