1 00:00:15,760 --> 00:00:18,320 Speaker 1: Good morning everybody. It's Thursday. It's February twenty fourth. We 2 00:00:18,400 --> 00:00:22,040 Speaker 1: got breaking news this morning, the Russian invasion of Ukraine. 3 00:00:22,079 --> 00:00:24,160 Speaker 1: So basically the entire show Crystal we had to scrap 4 00:00:24,239 --> 00:00:26,599 Speaker 1: this morning whenever we woke up, so we've got obviously 5 00:00:26,640 --> 00:00:29,440 Speaker 1: got all the different elements there down at the bottom. 6 00:00:29,520 --> 00:00:31,840 Speaker 1: But it's a really solemn occasion here. We're going to 7 00:00:31,880 --> 00:00:34,040 Speaker 1: try and cover it from all angles. It's really happening. 8 00:00:34,120 --> 00:00:41,159 Speaker 1: It's really a worst case scenario, all out assault on Ukraine, land, air, sea, 9 00:00:41,280 --> 00:00:46,720 Speaker 1: cyber truly just a shock and all effort from the Russians, 10 00:00:46,760 --> 00:00:49,040 Speaker 1: and we are going to cover it from every angle. 11 00:00:49,040 --> 00:00:51,839 Speaker 1: We're going to talk about what is happening this morning. Obviously, 12 00:00:51,880 --> 00:00:54,080 Speaker 1: the news breaking very quickly, so we're bringing you the 13 00:00:54,200 --> 00:00:56,680 Speaker 1: very latest that we can, always with the knowledge that, 14 00:00:56,960 --> 00:01:00,400 Speaker 1: especially in war reporting, things can change, reports can be 15 00:01:00,480 --> 00:01:02,960 Speaker 1: debunked later on, so doing our best is sort through 16 00:01:02,960 --> 00:01:05,000 Speaker 1: all of that. We'll talk about what the expectation is 17 00:01:05,000 --> 00:01:08,920 Speaker 1: from Biden and European leaders, how Republicans including Trump are reacting, 18 00:01:09,440 --> 00:01:12,040 Speaker 1: what the markets are doing, how the public is likely 19 00:01:12,120 --> 00:01:14,759 Speaker 1: to be impacted, and a little bit of a look 20 00:01:14,800 --> 00:01:16,920 Speaker 1: back and a bigger picture about how we got to 21 00:01:17,000 --> 00:01:19,200 Speaker 1: this place. The one part of the show that is 22 00:01:19,240 --> 00:01:21,399 Speaker 1: not going to be about Ukraine is my monologue because 23 00:01:21,400 --> 00:01:24,039 Speaker 1: obvious is written before all of this happened. But maybe 24 00:01:24,040 --> 00:01:26,600 Speaker 1: it'll be nice to have some fair on a different note, 25 00:01:26,959 --> 00:01:29,080 Speaker 1: but Sagar, let's start with the very latest that we 26 00:01:29,120 --> 00:01:31,520 Speaker 1: know this one. Let's go with the latest. So last night, 27 00:01:31,920 --> 00:01:35,040 Speaker 1: early morning, Ukraine time, around five in the morning, Russians 28 00:01:35,080 --> 00:01:38,440 Speaker 1: began invading the country from all different areas, by air, 29 00:01:38,560 --> 00:01:41,480 Speaker 1: by land, and by sea. There's heavy fighting all across 30 00:01:41,480 --> 00:01:44,679 Speaker 1: the entire country. It is not limited to the Eastern republics. 31 00:01:44,720 --> 00:01:46,560 Speaker 1: Putin gave a speech saying that they're going to be 32 00:01:46,600 --> 00:01:50,600 Speaker 1: conducting operations to clear Ukraine of Nazis. That's the justification 33 00:01:51,040 --> 00:01:53,240 Speaker 1: that they're giving. The President put out a statement late 34 00:01:53,320 --> 00:01:55,640 Speaker 1: last night speaking with President Zelensky. Let's go ahead and 35 00:01:55,640 --> 00:01:57,920 Speaker 1: put this up there on the screen. This is the 36 00:01:57,920 --> 00:02:00,920 Speaker 1: immediate reaction there from the White House that the prayers 37 00:02:00,920 --> 00:02:03,520 Speaker 1: of the entire world are with the people of Ukraine. 38 00:02:03,680 --> 00:02:07,960 Speaker 1: He calls the attack unprovoked and unjustified by Russian military forces. 39 00:02:08,200 --> 00:02:10,600 Speaker 1: President Putin has put a premeditated war that will bring 40 00:02:10,639 --> 00:02:13,679 Speaker 1: catastrophic loss of life and human suffering. Russia alone is 41 00:02:13,720 --> 00:02:16,280 Speaker 1: responsible for the death and destruction that this attack will bring. 42 00:02:16,520 --> 00:02:18,920 Speaker 1: The United States's allies and partners will respond in a 43 00:02:19,000 --> 00:02:21,600 Speaker 1: united in a decisive way, and the world will hold 44 00:02:21,680 --> 00:02:25,440 Speaker 1: Russia accountable. Teasing there a massive sanctions package to be 45 00:02:25,520 --> 00:02:29,760 Speaker 1: hit on the Russian economy, basically a full scale decoupling 46 00:02:29,800 --> 00:02:32,920 Speaker 1: there of the Russian banking system from our own banking system, 47 00:02:33,000 --> 00:02:36,160 Speaker 1: previewed also by the European Union this morning while they 48 00:02:36,160 --> 00:02:38,720 Speaker 1: were reacting to this news. Basically in real time, the 49 00:02:38,800 --> 00:02:43,480 Speaker 1: United Kingdom and the EU announcing a similar sanctions package. 50 00:02:43,560 --> 00:02:46,600 Speaker 1: The G seven is going to be meeting sometime later today, 51 00:02:46,680 --> 00:02:50,240 Speaker 1: including President Biden, with all of the different major leaders 52 00:02:50,440 --> 00:02:53,800 Speaker 1: of the country. There was some late night breaking stuff happening, 53 00:02:54,280 --> 00:02:57,720 Speaker 1: almost seeing from a movie. The Ukrainian ambassador, speaking at 54 00:02:57,720 --> 00:03:01,520 Speaker 1: the United Nations Security Council, buying a potential Russian invasion, 55 00:03:01,800 --> 00:03:05,360 Speaker 1: handed a note crystal informing him that his country was 56 00:03:05,400 --> 00:03:08,359 Speaker 1: beginning to be invaded while he was speaking in New York. 57 00:03:08,440 --> 00:03:12,560 Speaker 1: You almost can't make this stuff up. But at the top, 58 00:03:12,600 --> 00:03:14,040 Speaker 1: I think we have to say a couple of things. 59 00:03:14,120 --> 00:03:16,800 Speaker 1: I never expected a full scale invasion like this to happen. 60 00:03:16,840 --> 00:03:20,680 Speaker 1: I was deeply distrustful of US military intelligence, and frankly, 61 00:03:20,720 --> 00:03:22,960 Speaker 1: I think I got it wrong in terms of what 62 00:03:23,120 --> 00:03:27,160 Speaker 1: happened here. I never expected Putin and Russia in order 63 00:03:27,240 --> 00:03:32,079 Speaker 1: to do something so frankly colossally foolish. He has fulfilled 64 00:03:32,160 --> 00:03:34,800 Speaker 1: the dreams of the neo cons now in Washington for 65 00:03:34,920 --> 00:03:38,000 Speaker 1: all time. He is basically insured now Crystal, as we'll 66 00:03:38,040 --> 00:03:41,240 Speaker 1: be discussing throughout the entire show, a full scale NATO 67 00:03:41,280 --> 00:03:44,280 Speaker 1: deployment to the eastern flank. This is the greatest thing 68 00:03:44,320 --> 00:03:46,680 Speaker 1: that could have ever happened to the US defense budget. 69 00:03:46,880 --> 00:03:50,160 Speaker 1: I mean, there will now be a renewed, justified calls. 70 00:03:50,200 --> 00:03:53,880 Speaker 1: Already I'm seeing this morning the German former defense minister 71 00:03:54,200 --> 00:03:57,080 Speaker 1: and others saying they're going to be re upping their armaments. 72 00:03:57,120 --> 00:03:59,960 Speaker 1: So we are looking at a whole new era of geopolitics, 73 00:04:00,280 --> 00:04:04,120 Speaker 1: and it is entirely Putin's fault and China sort of 74 00:04:04,200 --> 00:04:09,080 Speaker 1: tacitly aligning with Russia basically calling for you know, lessening 75 00:04:09,080 --> 00:04:12,760 Speaker 1: of hostilities all around. So this very you know, wishy 76 00:04:13,000 --> 00:04:18,360 Speaker 1: washy both sides kind of a statement when clearly one 77 00:04:18,440 --> 00:04:22,880 Speaker 1: hundred percent the aggressor here is Putin and is Russia. 78 00:04:23,279 --> 00:04:26,239 Speaker 1: You know, the moment when I started to think, oh, 79 00:04:26,360 --> 00:04:29,279 Speaker 1: this could be this is about more than just NATO, 80 00:04:29,960 --> 00:04:34,920 Speaker 1: and this could be what the intelligence community is telling 81 00:04:35,000 --> 00:04:37,479 Speaker 1: us is when he gave that long speech, and I 82 00:04:37,520 --> 00:04:39,720 Speaker 1: know you're talking about that more really in the monologue, 83 00:04:40,279 --> 00:04:43,440 Speaker 1: because yes, because there was there were pieces of it 84 00:04:43,680 --> 00:04:47,600 Speaker 1: that were the sort of realist case of the Russian 85 00:04:47,800 --> 00:04:53,039 Speaker 1: security interests, concerns about NATO expansion eastward, concerns about Ukraine 86 00:04:53,200 --> 00:04:56,039 Speaker 1: and even the possibility in the future of Ukraine being 87 00:04:56,040 --> 00:04:59,159 Speaker 1: part of NATO. But a lot of the speech was 88 00:04:59,200 --> 00:05:04,440 Speaker 1: a nationalist speech about a sort of return to Russian glory, russianism, 89 00:05:04,920 --> 00:05:10,960 Speaker 1: Russian empire, Russian imperialism asserting itself on the global stage. 90 00:05:11,520 --> 00:05:14,520 Speaker 1: And so when I when we saw that, that seemed 91 00:05:14,520 --> 00:05:17,359 Speaker 1: to me like a real turning point and indication that 92 00:05:17,400 --> 00:05:19,880 Speaker 1: there was a lot more going on here than just 93 00:05:19,960 --> 00:05:23,680 Speaker 1: those sort of realist interests. And that's the only way 94 00:05:23,720 --> 00:05:25,839 Speaker 1: I can wrap my head around what's been done here 95 00:05:26,000 --> 00:05:28,640 Speaker 1: is that nationalism is a hell of a drug. Because 96 00:05:28,920 --> 00:05:32,800 Speaker 1: there is no doubt obviously this is horrific for the 97 00:05:32,800 --> 00:05:35,479 Speaker 1: people of Ukraine. People all around the world are going 98 00:05:35,560 --> 00:05:38,200 Speaker 1: to suffer in certain ways, but the Russian people are 99 00:05:38,240 --> 00:05:41,120 Speaker 1: going to suffer greatly as well. And we'll get more 100 00:05:41,240 --> 00:05:44,760 Speaker 1: to you know, what the specific Western response is likely 101 00:05:44,800 --> 00:05:46,600 Speaker 1: to be and how far they could go and what 102 00:05:46,640 --> 00:05:50,560 Speaker 1: that would ultimately look like. But let's talk about some 103 00:05:50,640 --> 00:05:54,000 Speaker 1: of the specifics of this invasion, because this went, as 104 00:05:54,040 --> 00:05:58,479 Speaker 1: you said, far beyond just these eastern separatist territories. You know, 105 00:05:58,520 --> 00:06:00,680 Speaker 1: the original question was, Okay, are they going to try 106 00:06:00,680 --> 00:06:05,920 Speaker 1: to reclaim the entire uh Luhanskindnetsk regions. Well, those battles 107 00:06:05,960 --> 00:06:09,440 Speaker 1: are happening now. They're clearly trying to regain those entire 108 00:06:09,480 --> 00:06:13,560 Speaker 1: the entirety of those territories. But you have fighting and 109 00:06:13,680 --> 00:06:18,039 Speaker 1: explosions happening all over the country and an effort to 110 00:06:18,080 --> 00:06:22,359 Speaker 1: take out airports in uh In, if not every major city, 111 00:06:22,720 --> 00:06:26,000 Speaker 1: pretty darn close uh And so we have, you know, 112 00:06:26,040 --> 00:06:28,880 Speaker 1: we have a little bit of video just to give 113 00:06:28,920 --> 00:06:31,280 Speaker 1: you a sense of what was happening last night as 114 00:06:31,320 --> 00:06:34,400 Speaker 1: this was all occurring. This happened live on CNN, one 115 00:06:34,400 --> 00:06:37,440 Speaker 1: of their reporters having to to stop his reporting from 116 00:06:37,560 --> 00:06:40,640 Speaker 1: Kiev to put on his flat jacket as you hear 117 00:06:40,720 --> 00:06:42,960 Speaker 1: explosions in the background. Let's take a look at that. 118 00:06:43,360 --> 00:06:45,520 Speaker 1: I think it's I think it's relatively safe at the moment. 119 00:06:45,640 --> 00:06:48,839 Speaker 1: I've got a oh, there's another on. I've got a 120 00:06:48,839 --> 00:06:51,760 Speaker 1: flat jacket right here. Let me just get it. Get 121 00:06:51,760 --> 00:06:57,040 Speaker 1: it on live person, Kiev, Ukraine. Matthew, We're going to 122 00:06:57,080 --> 00:06:59,800 Speaker 1: stick with you. Matthew is on a roof and so 123 00:07:00,080 --> 00:07:03,000 Speaker 1: to Kiev. He's telling us and just and this is 124 00:07:03,040 --> 00:07:05,679 Speaker 1: this is a professional he's been in tough. It's actually 125 00:07:05,680 --> 00:07:07,919 Speaker 1: been very good from the very beginning before. And you 126 00:07:08,000 --> 00:07:10,440 Speaker 1: can see, I mean how intense this is. And we 127 00:07:10,480 --> 00:07:14,640 Speaker 1: have a map of where we have reports of fighting 128 00:07:14,840 --> 00:07:17,400 Speaker 1: and shelling. This is from the New York Times map 129 00:07:17,400 --> 00:07:20,840 Speaker 1: tracking the Russian invasion of Ukraine. And you can see 130 00:07:21,200 --> 00:07:24,600 Speaker 1: there is not a region that is spared here. You know. 131 00:07:24,640 --> 00:07:27,560 Speaker 1: The one city that we don't actually have reports of 132 00:07:27,640 --> 00:07:30,240 Speaker 1: shelling right now is Leviv, all the way in the 133 00:07:30,280 --> 00:07:33,480 Speaker 1: eastern portion of the country. But you can see Kiev, 134 00:07:33,560 --> 00:07:38,720 Speaker 1: you can see Odessa. Certainly those separatists regions with a 135 00:07:38,760 --> 00:07:42,640 Speaker 1: lot of Russian speakers. So we have reports of sea invasions, 136 00:07:42,680 --> 00:07:44,960 Speaker 1: we have reports of shelling from the air, we have 137 00:07:45,240 --> 00:07:48,040 Speaker 1: reports of cyber attack, we have reports of I've even 138 00:07:48,040 --> 00:07:53,440 Speaker 1: seen image of you know, Russians parachuting in also invasions 139 00:07:53,440 --> 00:07:58,600 Speaker 1: along with there's reports that Belarus has contributed troops there, 140 00:07:58,640 --> 00:08:02,080 Speaker 1: denying it, but there's you know, credible reports that Belarus 141 00:08:02,120 --> 00:08:05,800 Speaker 1: has helped them and has also supplied troops. And as 142 00:08:05,880 --> 00:08:08,640 Speaker 1: of now, you know, it does not look like the 143 00:08:08,720 --> 00:08:12,800 Speaker 1: Ukrainian military is faring particularly well as Lensky actually, not 144 00:08:12,840 --> 00:08:16,680 Speaker 1: only has he introduced martial law, he's also said they 145 00:08:16,720 --> 00:08:21,720 Speaker 1: are issuing firearms. Yes to everyone who is of fighting age, 146 00:08:21,800 --> 00:08:25,320 Speaker 1: expecting this to these battles to come to town squares. 147 00:08:25,440 --> 00:08:27,240 Speaker 1: You have that language, I can read it here from 148 00:08:27,280 --> 00:08:30,280 Speaker 1: President Zelinsky this morning. We will give weapons to anyone 149 00:08:30,280 --> 00:08:32,760 Speaker 1: who wants to defend the country. Be ready to support 150 00:08:32,880 --> 00:08:36,960 Speaker 1: Ukraine in the squares of our cities, promising they're also 151 00:08:37,120 --> 00:08:39,760 Speaker 1: last night, you will not see our backs, you will 152 00:08:39,800 --> 00:08:42,360 Speaker 1: see our faces. So they're standing tall, while as tall 153 00:08:42,400 --> 00:08:44,360 Speaker 1: as they can. But we have to be honest here 154 00:08:44,360 --> 00:08:46,920 Speaker 1: about the overwhelming power that Russia has brought to bear. 155 00:08:47,200 --> 00:08:49,720 Speaker 1: I pulled a video I found this morning. This is 156 00:08:49,800 --> 00:08:53,800 Speaker 1: from fifteen miles just outside the ring road of the 157 00:08:53,840 --> 00:08:57,160 Speaker 1: city of Kiev, on a key strategic airport. For those 158 00:08:57,160 --> 00:08:59,040 Speaker 1: who are just listening. Bear with us. It's only about 159 00:08:59,080 --> 00:09:01,760 Speaker 1: ten seconds for those who are watching. This is a 160 00:09:01,840 --> 00:09:07,960 Speaker 1: full scale helicopter attack on this airport. Let's take a listen, okay, 161 00:09:35,440 --> 00:09:37,920 Speaker 1: and now chrysol we see that air bases have been 162 00:09:37,960 --> 00:09:40,480 Speaker 1: hit across the country. There was even a dog fight. 163 00:09:40,960 --> 00:09:42,600 Speaker 1: I mean, these are things that have not happened in 164 00:09:42,640 --> 00:09:45,560 Speaker 1: the history of warfare since like the nineteen seventies. It's 165 00:09:46,040 --> 00:09:48,720 Speaker 1: unbelievable to see these scenes. And this is what it 166 00:09:48,760 --> 00:09:50,920 Speaker 1: comes down to him. Why I never thought Putin would 167 00:09:50,920 --> 00:09:52,360 Speaker 1: be as big of a fool in order to do 168 00:09:52,400 --> 00:09:54,839 Speaker 1: something like this. He is now a pariah state in 169 00:09:54,880 --> 00:09:56,880 Speaker 1: the eyes of the world. I mean, he has now 170 00:09:56,960 --> 00:10:00,800 Speaker 1: committed something on par with the United States invasion of Iraq. 171 00:10:00,920 --> 00:10:03,880 Speaker 1: I mean, there is no justification for this. You know. Actually, 172 00:10:03,920 --> 00:10:05,760 Speaker 1: can we throw at that map up there on the 173 00:10:05,800 --> 00:10:10,160 Speaker 1: screen yet again, Let's just emphasize this to all of 174 00:10:10,160 --> 00:10:14,760 Speaker 1: the viewing public. The Russians claim that everything was about 175 00:10:14,800 --> 00:10:16,760 Speaker 1: what was happening right over there in the east. For 176 00:10:16,760 --> 00:10:19,440 Speaker 1: those who are just watching, go ahead and show me 177 00:10:19,640 --> 00:10:22,000 Speaker 1: how an attack all the way up near the Bella 178 00:10:22,080 --> 00:10:24,720 Speaker 1: Russian border, a pincer attack on the city of Kiev, 179 00:10:24,960 --> 00:10:28,400 Speaker 1: attacks on the city of Mariopol Odessa by the port 180 00:10:28,480 --> 00:10:31,960 Speaker 1: cities has anything to do with any of that whatsoever. 181 00:10:32,120 --> 00:10:34,240 Speaker 1: So look, you heard it here on the show, the 182 00:10:34,240 --> 00:10:37,240 Speaker 1: most honest take you could possibly give about any of 183 00:10:37,280 --> 00:10:39,560 Speaker 1: the Western role. And we'll talk more about this in 184 00:10:39,640 --> 00:10:44,520 Speaker 1: terms of NATO expansion, legitimate Russian security interests, threats, but 185 00:10:44,559 --> 00:10:46,320 Speaker 1: it is clear that this is not about NATO. This 186 00:10:46,360 --> 00:10:49,280 Speaker 1: is about restoring the former glory of the Soviet Empire. 187 00:10:49,320 --> 00:10:51,080 Speaker 1: And I have to say, Crystal that this is one 188 00:10:51,120 --> 00:10:54,839 Speaker 1: of the most catastrophic moves that Russia could have made 189 00:10:55,160 --> 00:10:57,559 Speaker 1: in a long time. And the reason why you may say, oh, 190 00:10:57,600 --> 00:11:02,000 Speaker 1: it'll be successful. Maybe maybe the Ukrainians surrender, although I've 191 00:11:02,040 --> 00:11:04,920 Speaker 1: been doing and reading a lot of history about Russian 192 00:11:05,200 --> 00:11:07,920 Speaker 1: possible attacks. I'm going to talk more in my monologue. 193 00:11:08,000 --> 00:11:11,760 Speaker 1: They have underestimated Finland in nineteen thirty nine. They're like, oh, 194 00:11:11,760 --> 00:11:13,720 Speaker 1: they'll be greatest as liberators, It'll all be fine. They 195 00:11:13,720 --> 00:11:16,480 Speaker 1: had a catastrophic military disaster. I mean you and I 196 00:11:16,520 --> 00:11:19,000 Speaker 1: were texting this morning. I mean you think the Ukrainians. 197 00:11:19,000 --> 00:11:21,360 Speaker 1: The Ukrainians are proud people too, They're going to fight back. 198 00:11:21,520 --> 00:11:23,520 Speaker 1: They may not win, but you will have now on 199 00:11:23,559 --> 00:11:26,040 Speaker 1: your hands forty four million people who have now been 200 00:11:26,080 --> 00:11:28,600 Speaker 1: forcibly taken over. And are you going to have a 201 00:11:28,640 --> 00:11:32,000 Speaker 1: full scale insurgency now that is on your hands? And 202 00:11:32,200 --> 00:11:35,640 Speaker 1: this is not something to trifle with. Wars always have 203 00:11:35,760 --> 00:11:39,280 Speaker 1: fortieth and fiftieth order consequences of which can bring down 204 00:11:39,320 --> 00:11:42,520 Speaker 1: the entire empire if you're not cap careful. And there 205 00:11:42,600 --> 00:11:45,880 Speaker 1: is an incredible amount of hubris from the Russians, who 206 00:11:45,920 --> 00:11:49,719 Speaker 1: are also dramatically overestimating their ability to be resilient as 207 00:11:49,760 --> 00:11:53,600 Speaker 1: its own sovereign state in the twenty first century economy. 208 00:11:53,679 --> 00:11:56,040 Speaker 1: That's not how it works. They are going to suffer 209 00:11:56,120 --> 00:11:59,960 Speaker 1: a colossal disaster. I really feel for people in Russia. 210 00:12:00,000 --> 00:12:01,960 Speaker 1: They're going to suffer for this. Well, they are not 211 00:12:02,000 --> 00:12:04,560 Speaker 1: going to eat properly. You know, I'm not saying there 212 00:12:04,600 --> 00:12:07,040 Speaker 1: will be a famine or something, but the stores are 213 00:12:07,040 --> 00:12:09,600 Speaker 1: going to be completely bare. I mean, they're not going 214 00:12:09,679 --> 00:12:12,480 Speaker 1: to be able to travel. Their futures are over. If 215 00:12:12,520 --> 00:12:14,840 Speaker 1: you enjoyed, you know, the time of being able to 216 00:12:14,880 --> 00:12:17,880 Speaker 1: gallivant around the European Union, the Schengen. That's done too. 217 00:12:18,040 --> 00:12:21,040 Speaker 1: And look, this is something that was needless, it was 218 00:12:21,080 --> 00:12:24,960 Speaker 1: an unprovoked it's a colossal disaster. It's a crime. It 219 00:12:25,040 --> 00:12:28,560 Speaker 1: truly is a crime against against peace, which is all 220 00:12:28,600 --> 00:12:32,480 Speaker 1: anybody really should want. We've seen video this morning, of course, 221 00:12:32,679 --> 00:12:36,760 Speaker 1: of people fleeing Kiev, and you can trast this too. 222 00:12:36,840 --> 00:12:40,120 Speaker 1: I mean, the population really stayed cool, calm and collected. 223 00:12:40,320 --> 00:12:44,160 Speaker 1: They did all of this. I think Zelenski should deserves 224 00:12:44,160 --> 00:12:46,600 Speaker 1: a lot of credit for doing everything he could. He 225 00:12:46,640 --> 00:12:49,480 Speaker 1: did everything to try to tamp down tensions. There were 226 00:12:49,520 --> 00:12:51,920 Speaker 1: even reports that before this all happened, we were going 227 00:12:51,960 --> 00:12:55,680 Speaker 1: to bring you of how disciplined the Ukrainian military had 228 00:12:55,720 --> 00:12:59,320 Speaker 1: been so as to avoid providing Russia with even the 229 00:12:59,360 --> 00:13:04,160 Speaker 1: fig leaf of a justification for this attack. Russia didn't 230 00:13:04,160 --> 00:13:08,360 Speaker 1: even take a fig leaf. They had no reason whatsoever. 231 00:13:08,520 --> 00:13:13,640 Speaker 1: Completely unprovoked this war that they have started, and it's 232 00:13:13,760 --> 00:13:17,360 Speaker 1: very clear, I mean, this is an attempt to realign 233 00:13:17,440 --> 00:13:20,959 Speaker 1: the world order in real time, which is why this 234 00:13:21,559 --> 00:13:25,240 Speaker 1: watching what China does here is so significant as well, 235 00:13:25,320 --> 00:13:28,720 Speaker 1: and the way that they seem to be tacitly aligning 236 00:13:28,920 --> 00:13:33,120 Speaker 1: with Russia. I mean, that's Russia's one lifeline that's going 237 00:13:33,200 --> 00:13:36,000 Speaker 1: to be left in the world, and it's a very 238 00:13:36,000 --> 00:13:38,920 Speaker 1: significant one because again, what is the Russian economy dependent 239 00:13:38,960 --> 00:13:42,120 Speaker 1: on it's dependent on gas. That means it's look, we're 240 00:13:42,120 --> 00:13:43,600 Speaker 1: going to talk in a little bit about what the 241 00:13:43,640 --> 00:13:46,079 Speaker 1: markets are doing and how gas prices are already spiking. 242 00:13:46,240 --> 00:13:47,800 Speaker 1: That's going to hit us here, that's going to hit 243 00:13:48,320 --> 00:13:51,720 Speaker 1: the European continent. But the Russian economy is basically wholly 244 00:13:51,760 --> 00:13:55,600 Speaker 1: dependent on gas. So if they can't sell into the 245 00:13:55,640 --> 00:13:59,560 Speaker 1: world market, that's devastating for them. But China is quite 246 00:13:59,600 --> 00:14:04,079 Speaker 1: a large, significant market, so that's what they're really counting 247 00:14:04,120 --> 00:14:08,000 Speaker 1: on in their attempts to reorder the world post Cold 248 00:14:08,040 --> 00:14:12,640 Speaker 1: War and move us immediately from what has been, you know, 249 00:14:12,760 --> 00:14:17,959 Speaker 1: a unipolar US hegemonic situation into a kind of new 250 00:14:18,160 --> 00:14:22,200 Speaker 1: global strategic situation. So listen, in terms of the foolishness 251 00:14:22,200 --> 00:14:25,800 Speaker 1: of this calculations, look no further than our own experience 252 00:14:25,840 --> 00:14:29,640 Speaker 1: in Afghanistan, or the Soviet experience in Afghanistan for that matter, 253 00:14:29,720 --> 00:14:35,160 Speaker 1: to understand the way that invading and occupying a sovereign 254 00:14:35,240 --> 00:14:41,880 Speaker 1: nation eats away at your country, damages your own national 255 00:14:41,960 --> 00:14:46,600 Speaker 1: and world standing, the way it takes your resources. Because 256 00:14:46,640 --> 00:14:50,080 Speaker 1: as much as we have less of a geostrategic interest 257 00:14:50,080 --> 00:14:52,520 Speaker 1: in Ukraine than the Russians, do. No one has more 258 00:14:52,520 --> 00:14:55,360 Speaker 1: of an interest in Ukraine than the Ukrainians, and as 259 00:14:55,400 --> 00:14:59,880 Speaker 1: you were pointing out, they have a long and fear, 260 00:15:00,000 --> 00:15:05,000 Speaker 1: there's nationalist identity and you know, have been fighting for 261 00:15:05,520 --> 00:15:08,760 Speaker 1: their territory for a long time and have learned a 262 00:15:08,800 --> 00:15:11,800 Speaker 1: lot over the past eight years during the civil war 263 00:15:12,000 --> 00:15:15,880 Speaker 1: also about how to fight and attack and hold ground 264 00:15:15,920 --> 00:15:19,560 Speaker 1: as well. So even though look today Russians have come 265 00:15:19,600 --> 00:15:22,520 Speaker 1: in with shock and awe. You know a lot of 266 00:15:22,560 --> 00:15:27,360 Speaker 1: reports of significant severe damage to the Ukrainian navy to 267 00:15:27,760 --> 00:15:31,280 Speaker 1: you know, any air capabilities to their airports. There are 268 00:15:31,320 --> 00:15:34,000 Speaker 1: reports of some major cities that have already been taken. 269 00:15:34,040 --> 00:15:36,480 Speaker 1: These are all preliminary, so I want to put caveats 270 00:15:36,480 --> 00:15:39,240 Speaker 1: on all of that. But in terms look, remember we 271 00:15:39,320 --> 00:15:41,320 Speaker 1: came in with Shakanah too. Yeah, we won the war 272 00:15:41,360 --> 00:15:43,880 Speaker 1: in Iraq in three weeks, right and then and then 273 00:15:43,920 --> 00:15:45,800 Speaker 1: how did it go? How did you know? The same 274 00:15:45,800 --> 00:15:48,440 Speaker 1: thing in Afghanistan we rolled in very quickly, you know, 275 00:15:48,720 --> 00:15:53,480 Speaker 1: Taliban fleas well. Guess what that was far from the 276 00:15:53,640 --> 00:15:58,840 Speaker 1: end of the story. So long term, even you know, 277 00:15:58,960 --> 00:16:03,240 Speaker 1: immediate term and terms of the retaliation and the economic devastation. 278 00:16:03,920 --> 00:16:08,080 Speaker 1: Absolute foolishness from Russia, but they decided to put their 279 00:16:08,240 --> 00:16:11,080 Speaker 1: nationalist interests and their desire to reassert themselves and to 280 00:16:11,160 --> 00:16:14,520 Speaker 1: regain their sort of ego and confidence on the world stage. 281 00:16:14,640 --> 00:16:18,000 Speaker 1: There's reports, kind of conflicting reports that I've seen this 282 00:16:18,040 --> 00:16:21,080 Speaker 1: morning about the way the Russian public is reacting. So 283 00:16:21,600 --> 00:16:24,680 Speaker 1: Clint Erlik, who's an analyst who I've been looking to, 284 00:16:25,040 --> 00:16:27,960 Speaker 1: who I think has had a fairly accurate take of 285 00:16:27,960 --> 00:16:30,160 Speaker 1: what's going on and has tried really to present the 286 00:16:30,240 --> 00:16:33,440 Speaker 1: Russian side of things as well, says Russian media is 287 00:16:33,520 --> 00:16:37,640 Speaker 1: emphasizing that what's happening in Ukraine is a purely military operation. 288 00:16:37,760 --> 00:16:40,800 Speaker 1: It is not a purely military operation, say special operation, 289 00:16:40,960 --> 00:16:43,760 Speaker 1: so it includes Russian intelligence, law enforcement, et cetera. But 290 00:16:43,840 --> 00:16:49,560 Speaker 1: he also talks about how on Russian television they're absolutely gleeful, 291 00:16:50,160 --> 00:16:54,360 Speaker 1: like he actually says, the mood is euphoric. I don't 292 00:16:54,400 --> 00:16:58,440 Speaker 1: recall American war coverage like this, even during the Iraq invasion, 293 00:16:59,200 --> 00:17:01,520 Speaker 1: which is a big star, or even when we were 294 00:17:01,560 --> 00:17:04,000 Speaker 1: bombing Siria and Brian Williams is out there talking about 295 00:17:04,000 --> 00:17:06,439 Speaker 1: the beauty of our missile strikes and all of that. 296 00:17:06,920 --> 00:17:09,640 Speaker 1: He says so much laughter, such big smiles, as someone 297 00:17:09,680 --> 00:17:12,120 Speaker 1: who's tried hard to present the Russian perspective to Americans, 298 00:17:12,119 --> 00:17:14,760 Speaker 1: I'm grossed down. On the other hand, there's reporting from 299 00:17:14,800 --> 00:17:17,119 Speaker 1: the New York Times this morning about how some of 300 00:17:17,160 --> 00:17:21,040 Speaker 1: the regular Russian population, you know, it was all fine 301 00:17:21,080 --> 00:17:23,240 Speaker 1: and good when we're talking about, Okay, we're going into 302 00:17:23,240 --> 00:17:26,160 Speaker 1: the recognizing the separatist regions, we're going on a quote 303 00:17:26,200 --> 00:17:30,320 Speaker 1: unquote you know, fake peacekeeping mission. There. War is another 304 00:17:30,480 --> 00:17:34,680 Speaker 1: thing all together, and that there's some unease among the 305 00:17:34,760 --> 00:17:38,160 Speaker 1: Russian public about what this is going to mean for 306 00:17:38,280 --> 00:17:41,320 Speaker 1: their lives, and they should be very uneasy about what 307 00:17:41,359 --> 00:17:42,919 Speaker 1: this is going to look like and how it's going 308 00:17:43,000 --> 00:17:46,280 Speaker 1: to reorder and completely change what was possible for them 309 00:17:46,280 --> 00:17:47,640 Speaker 1: in their own lives. Yeah, I'm going to go into 310 00:17:47,680 --> 00:17:49,719 Speaker 1: it more in my monologue, but you guys should remember this. 311 00:17:49,840 --> 00:17:53,199 Speaker 1: The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan was a colossal disaster, and 312 00:17:53,240 --> 00:17:55,159 Speaker 1: actually it was one of the things that undermined a 313 00:17:55,240 --> 00:17:58,000 Speaker 1: huge amount of public trust in the Russian regime at 314 00:17:58,000 --> 00:18:01,879 Speaker 1: the time, specifically because of Russians were getting killed and 315 00:18:01,960 --> 00:18:05,320 Speaker 1: Russian media was not allowed to cover the graves, the 316 00:18:05,359 --> 00:18:09,399 Speaker 1: burial ceremonies. They basically didn't allow the moms, basically the 317 00:18:09,400 --> 00:18:11,920 Speaker 1: equivalent of our gold Star moms in order to grieve 318 00:18:11,960 --> 00:18:15,719 Speaker 1: in public. There was a huge public backlash against the 319 00:18:15,760 --> 00:18:18,400 Speaker 1: military campaign, and it became public knowledge that the war 320 00:18:18,440 --> 00:18:23,080 Speaker 1: in Afghanistan was a complete disaster, regardless of the propaganda. Look, 321 00:18:23,320 --> 00:18:26,360 Speaker 1: never underestimate the Russian people's capacity for suffering. I will 322 00:18:26,359 --> 00:18:28,879 Speaker 1: say that history has taught us that very well. That 323 00:18:29,000 --> 00:18:32,159 Speaker 1: being said, a foreign military adventure the likes of this 324 00:18:32,200 --> 00:18:34,800 Speaker 1: one in which they were not invaded and is not 325 00:18:35,000 --> 00:18:37,880 Speaker 1: something that they historically have been all that okay with 326 00:18:38,000 --> 00:18:41,520 Speaker 1: and which has caused great domestic turmoil in their country. 327 00:18:41,600 --> 00:18:46,399 Speaker 1: Putin has dramatically, dramatically overestimated his own hand and underestimated 328 00:18:46,440 --> 00:18:49,359 Speaker 1: always the fortieth order consequence of war. We thought we 329 00:18:49,400 --> 00:18:52,120 Speaker 1: would be greeted at as liberators in Iraq. How did 330 00:18:52,119 --> 00:18:54,880 Speaker 1: that work out? I mean, Stalin thought that walking through 331 00:18:54,920 --> 00:18:57,879 Speaker 1: Finland would be a cakewalk. The Russians thought that the 332 00:18:57,960 --> 00:19:00,520 Speaker 1: Russo Japanese War would be fine. They thought that the 333 00:19:00,560 --> 00:19:03,639 Speaker 1: Great War would go fine. Things in Russian history do 334 00:19:03,720 --> 00:19:06,320 Speaker 1: not look so well on the side of Russian aggression 335 00:19:06,400 --> 00:19:09,439 Speaker 1: over the last two centuries. And I would just say 336 00:19:09,680 --> 00:19:12,119 Speaker 1: I feel very bad for the Russian people themselves. I 337 00:19:12,119 --> 00:19:14,720 Speaker 1: don't think they deserve this. The Ukrainians, I mean, I 338 00:19:14,760 --> 00:19:18,040 Speaker 1: cannot imagine having the country full scale taken over. I 339 00:19:18,119 --> 00:19:21,560 Speaker 1: drove past the airport, Reagan National Airport this morning and 340 00:19:21,600 --> 00:19:23,240 Speaker 1: I just thought, through my acts, I can't imagine it. 341 00:19:23,240 --> 00:19:26,119 Speaker 1: There's a helicopter coming down here and shooting people on 342 00:19:26,160 --> 00:19:28,960 Speaker 1: the streets and making sure that's not happening. Imagine, you know, 343 00:19:29,000 --> 00:19:31,440 Speaker 1: coming here in Washington, d C. To get arms from 344 00:19:31,440 --> 00:19:34,360 Speaker 1: the US military in order to you know, in order 345 00:19:34,400 --> 00:19:37,560 Speaker 1: to repel an invasion. It's it's something that truly boggles 346 00:19:37,560 --> 00:19:39,440 Speaker 1: of mind. This is a return to you know, the 347 00:19:39,480 --> 00:19:42,600 Speaker 1: geopolitics of old and again to your point. You know, 348 00:19:42,640 --> 00:19:46,240 Speaker 1: CCTV China is running a program actually right now about 349 00:19:46,240 --> 00:19:48,960 Speaker 1: a Ukraine's fate is the future of Taiwan. So there 350 00:19:49,040 --> 00:19:50,840 Speaker 1: you go. You know, they're they're very much looking at 351 00:19:50,880 --> 00:19:53,880 Speaker 1: this as a full scale realignment of the global order. 352 00:19:53,880 --> 00:19:57,240 Speaker 1: And my greatest fear here is the escalation ladder has 353 00:19:57,359 --> 00:20:00,560 Speaker 1: Now this is Putin's greatest mistake. He has awoken a 354 00:20:00,560 --> 00:20:03,159 Speaker 1: sleeping giant in Europe. I've been saying for years that 355 00:20:03,200 --> 00:20:06,239 Speaker 1: the Europeans should be reigniting their defense budgets. You're going 356 00:20:06,280 --> 00:20:08,680 Speaker 1: to see four or five percent military spending now from 357 00:20:08,680 --> 00:20:11,280 Speaker 1: the German economy, from the UK, I mean, the EU 358 00:20:11,400 --> 00:20:13,880 Speaker 1: and the French themselves, they are all going to rearm 359 00:20:14,040 --> 00:20:17,720 Speaker 1: massively bring military spending up. He has now created a 360 00:20:17,720 --> 00:20:21,120 Speaker 1: situation where the Washington basically has no choice in order 361 00:20:21,160 --> 00:20:24,119 Speaker 1: but to deploy troops into the NATO Eastern flank. We 362 00:20:24,160 --> 00:20:26,840 Speaker 1: are going to be almost certainly I'm not seven sinegian 363 00:20:26,920 --> 00:20:29,399 Speaker 1: I support this, but we're going to see no question 364 00:20:29,440 --> 00:20:33,919 Speaker 1: of bipartisan consensus on renewing the US nuclear program hypersonic 365 00:20:34,000 --> 00:20:38,440 Speaker 1: missile development. I mean he has single handedly now created 366 00:20:38,480 --> 00:20:41,080 Speaker 1: a situation where we are going to return to the 367 00:20:41,160 --> 00:20:44,760 Speaker 1: checkpoint Charlie days of East and West Berlin. This is 368 00:20:44,840 --> 00:20:47,480 Speaker 1: not necessary, and now our guys are going to be 369 00:20:47,520 --> 00:20:50,199 Speaker 1: sitting there eyeball to eyeball with the Russian troops on 370 00:20:50,320 --> 00:20:52,879 Speaker 1: the NATO Eastern flank, and all it takes, as it 371 00:20:52,880 --> 00:20:55,679 Speaker 1: did in nineteen sixty, is a single snap and the 372 00:20:55,800 --> 00:20:59,040 Speaker 1: entire world can end. So I can't condemn it enough. 373 00:20:59,320 --> 00:21:01,840 Speaker 1: We can acknowledged the Western hubris and all that that 374 00:21:02,080 --> 00:21:04,520 Speaker 1: helped get us into this situation, but this is Putin's fault. 375 00:21:04,720 --> 00:21:07,840 Speaker 1: I really I feel a deep sadness today, both for Russians, 376 00:21:07,840 --> 00:21:10,199 Speaker 1: for Ukraine, for the fate of the world, and just 377 00:21:10,240 --> 00:21:12,840 Speaker 1: a realization that we're in a whole new era. Yeah. 378 00:21:13,040 --> 00:21:15,120 Speaker 1: I truly hoped we would never get It really does 379 00:21:15,200 --> 00:21:18,840 Speaker 1: feel like a tipping point and a sort of break 380 00:21:19,040 --> 00:21:22,520 Speaker 1: race point in terms of world history and what things 381 00:21:22,560 --> 00:21:24,320 Speaker 1: are going to look like from here on out. And 382 00:21:24,320 --> 00:21:28,600 Speaker 1: that's without even talking about what the UN says is 383 00:21:28,640 --> 00:21:32,639 Speaker 1: potentially five million refugees. Oh yeah, this flooding into the 384 00:21:32,720 --> 00:21:35,720 Speaker 1: countries around Europe. We all know the type of political 385 00:21:35,720 --> 00:21:39,960 Speaker 1: destabilization that that can cause. The level of humanitarian aid 386 00:21:40,200 --> 00:21:42,119 Speaker 1: that is going to be required, one is going to 387 00:21:42,160 --> 00:21:46,639 Speaker 1: be overrun. Now, it's really it's just horrifying to contemplate. 388 00:21:46,680 --> 00:21:49,200 Speaker 1: You can't even really wrap your head around what all 389 00:21:49,240 --> 00:21:51,760 Speaker 1: of the follow on consequences are going to be. Let's 390 00:21:51,800 --> 00:21:54,640 Speaker 1: go ahead and talk a little bit more in detail 391 00:21:54,800 --> 00:21:59,720 Speaker 1: about what the West response may be. We already know, 392 00:22:00,160 --> 00:22:02,600 Speaker 1: you know, Biden has said we are going to levy 393 00:22:02,720 --> 00:22:06,840 Speaker 1: extreme sanctions. I was reading this morning about what some 394 00:22:07,080 --> 00:22:09,760 Speaker 1: of that could look like. Now, I will say that 395 00:22:10,840 --> 00:22:13,080 Speaker 1: as much as we would love for the West to 396 00:22:13,119 --> 00:22:16,200 Speaker 1: be totally unified. There are reports this morning that there's 397 00:22:16,320 --> 00:22:19,400 Speaker 1: you know, a lot of haggling behind the scenes. Italy 398 00:22:19,480 --> 00:22:22,480 Speaker 1: wants a carve out for luxury goods, Belgium wants a 399 00:22:22,520 --> 00:22:25,240 Speaker 1: carve out for diamonds. I mean, every country you know, 400 00:22:25,359 --> 00:22:27,640 Speaker 1: trying to protect their own little piece of the pie. 401 00:22:28,040 --> 00:22:31,679 Speaker 1: But what we could expect is, first of all, that 402 00:22:32,080 --> 00:22:36,000 Speaker 1: Nord's dream to pipeline. Oh, it's dead, totally dead, dead, 403 00:22:36,240 --> 00:22:40,000 Speaker 1: not happening. Okay, I think that seems pretty clear. We 404 00:22:40,119 --> 00:22:45,120 Speaker 1: already had one Russian bank that effectively was taken offline 405 00:22:45,160 --> 00:22:49,040 Speaker 1: in terms of the global system. US officials emphasized to 406 00:22:49,359 --> 00:22:52,439 Speaker 1: a pee that Washington could take more of Russia's banks 407 00:22:52,480 --> 00:22:55,800 Speaker 1: offline with basically a push of a button. We've already 408 00:22:55,840 --> 00:22:59,920 Speaker 1: had a number of individuals who are high level in 409 00:23:00,240 --> 00:23:03,560 Speaker 1: the Russian government who have been directly sanctioned. You could 410 00:23:03,560 --> 00:23:08,720 Speaker 1: expand that list to include more high level officials. One 411 00:23:08,880 --> 00:23:13,119 Speaker 1: other avenue that's available is sectoral sanctions as an option 412 00:23:13,200 --> 00:23:16,199 Speaker 1: to damage the economy. That could apply to specific Russian 413 00:23:16,200 --> 00:23:19,760 Speaker 1: firms or talking energy finance technology that would be included 414 00:23:19,800 --> 00:23:24,520 Speaker 1: on the sectoral sanctions identifications list would limit trades significantly, 415 00:23:24,720 --> 00:23:28,679 Speaker 1: while still allowing some transactions. And of course the big 416 00:23:28,760 --> 00:23:33,959 Speaker 1: thing that has been contemplated is cutting Russia out of 417 00:23:34,000 --> 00:23:38,360 Speaker 1: the swift financial system, so that would effectively cut them 418 00:23:38,359 --> 00:23:42,879 Speaker 1: off from the global economy. It would significantly damage Russian's economy. 419 00:23:43,160 --> 00:23:45,960 Speaker 1: It would keep them from being able to move money 420 00:23:46,000 --> 00:23:49,120 Speaker 1: bank to bank around the globe, and could cut them 421 00:23:49,160 --> 00:23:54,760 Speaker 1: off from international financial transactions, including international profits from their 422 00:23:54,760 --> 00:23:59,520 Speaker 1: oil and gas production. And another couple of options that 423 00:23:59,560 --> 00:24:01,840 Speaker 1: are on the tape is denying them the ability to 424 00:24:01,880 --> 00:24:07,040 Speaker 1: clear dollars with the federal Reserve or to clear exports. 425 00:24:07,760 --> 00:24:10,320 Speaker 1: That's the sort of move that we have made against 426 00:24:10,359 --> 00:24:15,520 Speaker 1: a like Cuba, Iran, North Korea, Syria. Those sanctions, you know, 427 00:24:15,680 --> 00:24:19,000 Speaker 1: some package of them put together would truly make Russia 428 00:24:19,119 --> 00:24:23,960 Speaker 1: a pariah state. Now I would say, listen, can't you 429 00:24:24,000 --> 00:24:29,520 Speaker 1: can't witness this unprovoked war and not respond. That being said, 430 00:24:29,600 --> 00:24:33,120 Speaker 1: we know the way that sanctions on countries that impact 431 00:24:33,920 --> 00:24:39,000 Speaker 1: civilians directly have not been particularly effective at ultimately bringing 432 00:24:39,040 --> 00:24:42,080 Speaker 1: countries into line, So that's always something to keep in mind. 433 00:24:42,080 --> 00:24:43,840 Speaker 1: The other piece of this that I think is really 434 00:24:43,920 --> 00:24:48,080 Speaker 1: important is I think sometimes with our you know, American hubrists, 435 00:24:48,240 --> 00:24:50,960 Speaker 1: we think we get to have the last, say, if 436 00:24:51,000 --> 00:24:54,240 Speaker 1: we levy extreme sanctions, which we're very likely to do. 437 00:24:54,359 --> 00:24:59,240 Speaker 1: Now Russians have, you know, significant cyber capabilities as well, 438 00:24:59,680 --> 00:25:02,840 Speaker 1: they are going to have a response. And so that's 439 00:25:02,880 --> 00:25:06,440 Speaker 1: when you get into this extremely dangerous back and forth situation. 440 00:25:06,680 --> 00:25:09,760 Speaker 1: Like you said, it's always the most critical question in 441 00:25:09,840 --> 00:25:13,439 Speaker 1: foreign affairs is and then what so the Russians are 442 00:25:13,440 --> 00:25:16,720 Speaker 1: about to find out there? And then what after invading 443 00:25:17,119 --> 00:25:21,320 Speaker 1: Ukraine in this incredibly aggressive, all out manner, what is 444 00:25:21,359 --> 00:25:23,439 Speaker 1: that going to do to them? And then we're going 445 00:25:23,520 --> 00:25:25,720 Speaker 1: to have to watch and wait and see what their 446 00:25:25,800 --> 00:25:29,040 Speaker 1: response is. And then you're in this tit for tat 447 00:25:29,600 --> 00:25:33,080 Speaker 1: back and forth that no one can predict where it's 448 00:25:33,119 --> 00:25:36,920 Speaker 1: ultimately going to end. So it is an extraordinarily dangerous 449 00:25:36,960 --> 00:25:41,120 Speaker 1: situation for the entire planet. It's incredibly dangerous, Crystal. I'm 450 00:25:41,160 --> 00:25:45,160 Speaker 1: looking right now at the OEC data on Russia itself. 451 00:25:45,280 --> 00:25:49,080 Speaker 1: It imports two hundred and thirty eight billion dollars worth 452 00:25:49,080 --> 00:25:51,040 Speaker 1: of goods, twenty first in the world out of two 453 00:25:51,119 --> 00:25:56,480 Speaker 1: hundred and twenty five nations. Top imports are cars, package, medicaments, 454 00:25:56,720 --> 00:26:01,600 Speaker 1: vehicle parts, broadcasting equipment, planes, helicopter and spacecraft. Most of 455 00:26:01,640 --> 00:26:05,600 Speaker 1: that comes from China, but Germany, Belarus, the United States, 456 00:26:05,600 --> 00:26:08,000 Speaker 1: and Italy are all its top trading partners. You can 457 00:26:08,080 --> 00:26:10,760 Speaker 1: essentially say goodbye to a lot of the US trade 458 00:26:10,800 --> 00:26:14,159 Speaker 1: Italy and Germany as well. That is itself. I just 459 00:26:14,200 --> 00:26:17,639 Speaker 1: described fifty billion dollars one fifth of all of their imports, 460 00:26:17,880 --> 00:26:20,879 Speaker 1: which are now imperiled. So China can make up some 461 00:26:21,040 --> 00:26:22,960 Speaker 1: of that, but to be honest, it's going to be 462 00:26:23,080 --> 00:26:26,040 Speaker 1: still a complete disaster. And just to get back to 463 00:26:26,440 --> 00:26:29,440 Speaker 1: what we were saying in terms of the Western response, 464 00:26:29,560 --> 00:26:32,240 Speaker 1: I mean, remember this too, which is Russia Gate, which 465 00:26:32,280 --> 00:26:35,560 Speaker 1: you and I condemned, has already created the conditions in 466 00:26:35,600 --> 00:26:39,119 Speaker 1: which to maximally respond to this from the West. We 467 00:26:39,240 --> 00:26:43,560 Speaker 1: have some tape of speaker Nancy Pelosi speaking on this yesterday. 468 00:26:43,680 --> 00:26:46,960 Speaker 1: Let's take a listen to see and this day and 469 00:26:47,040 --> 00:26:52,240 Speaker 1: age a tyrant roll into a country. This is the 470 00:26:52,280 --> 00:26:58,199 Speaker 1: same tyrant who attacked our democracy in twenty and sixteen. 471 00:26:58,800 --> 00:27:02,639 Speaker 1: This is the same time who is opposed to democracy 472 00:27:02,720 --> 00:27:08,280 Speaker 1: and wants to minimize, trivialize it, to downgrade it in 473 00:27:08,320 --> 00:27:11,880 Speaker 1: the eyes of the Russian people. Doing this is a 474 00:27:12,040 --> 00:27:18,200 Speaker 1: very evil move on the part of Vladimir Putin. He's 475 00:27:18,240 --> 00:27:21,399 Speaker 1: a KGB guy who happens to be probably the richest 476 00:27:21,400 --> 00:27:24,199 Speaker 1: man in the world because of this exploitation of his 477 00:27:24,280 --> 00:27:27,080 Speaker 1: own people that he doesn't want them to know about 478 00:27:27,720 --> 00:27:31,720 Speaker 1: and use his excuses like it's changed every time you 479 00:27:31,760 --> 00:27:34,440 Speaker 1: hear them say well, they're part of us, that's who 480 00:27:34,440 --> 00:27:36,680 Speaker 1: we are. They should be us. Now they're saying, well, 481 00:27:36,720 --> 00:27:38,159 Speaker 1: we have to go in because they want to be 482 00:27:38,200 --> 00:27:44,280 Speaker 1: part of NATO. This, my friends, is our moment. This 483 00:27:44,320 --> 00:27:48,920 Speaker 1: is a Sudatean land, that's what people were saying there. Yeah, classic, 484 00:27:49,200 --> 00:27:51,600 Speaker 1: everything has to be the su Dtan land. I mean, look, 485 00:27:51,720 --> 00:27:54,600 Speaker 1: I know that it's a horrific situation, but not everything 486 00:27:54,640 --> 00:27:57,320 Speaker 1: is Hitler, and unfortunately we don't seem to be able 487 00:27:57,600 --> 00:28:00,520 Speaker 1: to understand that. And there still remains a signal, nificant 488 00:28:00,640 --> 00:28:03,200 Speaker 1: role for the United States in order to decide how 489 00:28:03,200 --> 00:28:05,399 Speaker 1: it's going to respond, because, like you said, you think 490 00:28:05,440 --> 00:28:07,199 Speaker 1: the Russians are going to sit by and let their 491 00:28:07,240 --> 00:28:10,080 Speaker 1: economy get crippled. No, we're going to see some sort 492 00:28:10,359 --> 00:28:13,040 Speaker 1: of escalation. We could see also, don't forget this, we 493 00:28:13,080 --> 00:28:15,760 Speaker 1: have troops right up near Belarus and all throughout the 494 00:28:15,760 --> 00:28:20,600 Speaker 1: Baltics Romania as well. We could see confrontations there North 495 00:28:20,640 --> 00:28:23,879 Speaker 1: Sea and the Baltic Sea. We have military overflight there 496 00:28:23,960 --> 00:28:26,720 Speaker 1: all the time, just like we did during the Cold War. 497 00:28:27,119 --> 00:28:30,720 Speaker 1: Elsewhere in Syria and elsewhere where Russians have forward deployed troops, 498 00:28:30,760 --> 00:28:33,879 Speaker 1: we also have people. There could be real problems there. 499 00:28:34,000 --> 00:28:36,560 Speaker 1: Don't put it outside the realm of possibility in terms 500 00:28:36,600 --> 00:28:39,840 Speaker 1: of how the Gray War responds well. Because and this 501 00:28:39,920 --> 00:28:44,200 Speaker 1: is why I so object to the casual use of 502 00:28:44,880 --> 00:28:49,560 Speaker 1: Chamberlain and Munich and Hitler and Student Inland. It's because 503 00:28:49,880 --> 00:28:52,880 Speaker 1: if Putin is literally Hitler, yeah, then it's time to 504 00:28:52,880 --> 00:28:55,760 Speaker 1: go Then go to war. I mean, that's the next 505 00:28:55,760 --> 00:29:00,320 Speaker 1: logical step. And so if you're Pelosi or you know, 506 00:29:00,520 --> 00:29:02,680 Speaker 1: or if Biden used that kind of rhetoric, and I 507 00:29:02,680 --> 00:29:06,600 Speaker 1: think Biden, I have to give him credit for strong rhetoric, 508 00:29:06,640 --> 00:29:11,720 Speaker 1: but not saying these sorts of always troops consistently from 509 00:29:11,720 --> 00:29:14,480 Speaker 1: the beginning, and that is really important, saying, even in 510 00:29:14,520 --> 00:29:17,800 Speaker 1: the most extreme situations of having to rescue our own people, 511 00:29:18,120 --> 00:29:20,560 Speaker 1: we are not going to do it. And that matters 512 00:29:20,600 --> 00:29:23,000 Speaker 1: a lot because you open the door a crack, and 513 00:29:23,080 --> 00:29:25,800 Speaker 1: all of these generals and deep state types, I mean, 514 00:29:25,840 --> 00:29:28,600 Speaker 1: you think they don't want to push us back into 515 00:29:29,000 --> 00:29:32,880 Speaker 1: actual boots on the ground engagement, because that's the logical 516 00:29:33,160 --> 00:29:37,040 Speaker 1: next step from what Pelosi and Gingrich. I mean. We've 517 00:29:37,120 --> 00:29:39,600 Speaker 1: heard so many people on both sides of the aisle 518 00:29:40,240 --> 00:29:43,320 Speaker 1: using this type of language, and there is only one 519 00:29:43,320 --> 00:29:46,720 Speaker 1: conclusion to come to if you really think that Putin 520 00:29:47,240 --> 00:29:50,440 Speaker 1: is Hitler, and that is that, Okay, it's time to 521 00:29:50,480 --> 00:29:53,320 Speaker 1: go to war. That is not something that we want, 522 00:29:53,360 --> 00:29:56,040 Speaker 1: that's not something the American public wants, and that is 523 00:29:56,240 --> 00:29:59,160 Speaker 1: something that should be put completely off the table and 524 00:29:59,280 --> 00:30:03,320 Speaker 1: just again to un score what a volatile and dangerous 525 00:30:03,360 --> 00:30:09,600 Speaker 1: situation we're in now. Putin already issuing threats about what 526 00:30:09,680 --> 00:30:12,800 Speaker 1: they will do in response to any action. He shared 527 00:30:12,840 --> 00:30:14,880 Speaker 1: a message saying for those who may be tempted to 528 00:30:15,000 --> 00:30:19,800 Speaker 1: intervene in ongoing events from the outside, he stated, anyone 529 00:30:19,800 --> 00:30:22,239 Speaker 1: who tries to interfere with us, and even more so 530 00:30:22,360 --> 00:30:25,479 Speaker 1: to create threats to our country, to our people, should 531 00:30:25,520 --> 00:30:28,440 Speaker 1: know that Russia's response will be immediate and will lead 532 00:30:28,480 --> 00:30:31,560 Speaker 1: you to such consequences as you have never experienced in 533 00:30:31,600 --> 00:30:35,800 Speaker 1: your history. He continued, Russia is ready for any developments 534 00:30:35,840 --> 00:30:39,360 Speaker 1: of events. All necessary decisions in this regard have been made. 535 00:30:39,680 --> 00:30:42,920 Speaker 1: I hope that I will be heard. Some interpreted this 536 00:30:43,240 --> 00:30:46,880 Speaker 1: just as you know, direct engagement in Ukraine, but he 537 00:30:46,920 --> 00:30:49,640 Speaker 1: does not restrict it at all to that. So he 538 00:30:49,720 --> 00:30:52,560 Speaker 1: threatened nuclear consequences as well, reminding the world of his 539 00:30:52,640 --> 00:30:55,600 Speaker 1: nuclear arsenal crystal exactly. And of course we saw those 540 00:30:55,680 --> 00:31:00,480 Speaker 1: nuclear readiness tests just a few days ago while tensions 541 00:31:00,520 --> 00:31:03,880 Speaker 1: were escalating and he was building up to this full 542 00:31:03,920 --> 00:31:06,320 Speaker 1: scale invasion. I do want to say one thing that 543 00:31:06,600 --> 00:31:10,360 Speaker 1: is a little bit heartening is we do have now. 544 00:31:10,480 --> 00:31:12,840 Speaker 1: Of course, we have the people who were in charge, 545 00:31:12,920 --> 00:31:16,720 Speaker 1: the bipartisan pro war consensus, but we do have now 546 00:31:16,920 --> 00:31:22,720 Speaker 1: a bipartisan anti war or at least reluctant caucus that, 547 00:31:22,880 --> 00:31:25,360 Speaker 1: even before we got to this point, had been trying 548 00:31:25,400 --> 00:31:27,880 Speaker 1: to exert their influence a little bit. Here, let's go 549 00:31:27,920 --> 00:31:31,000 Speaker 1: ahead and put B three up on the screen. There 550 00:31:31,040 --> 00:31:33,840 Speaker 1: was a bipartisan group that wrote a letter. I mean, 551 00:31:33,840 --> 00:31:36,280 Speaker 1: they shouldn't even have to do this, but this included AOC, 552 00:31:36,400 --> 00:31:39,480 Speaker 1: It included Louis Gohmer, and I mean exactly, Matt Gates 553 00:31:39,560 --> 00:31:42,400 Speaker 1: is on here. You know, Rashida Saliba is on here. 554 00:31:42,440 --> 00:31:45,400 Speaker 1: So it really is across the board. They're urging President 555 00:31:45,400 --> 00:31:47,920 Speaker 1: Biden to follow the Constitution and the law and receive 556 00:31:48,040 --> 00:31:54,040 Speaker 1: authorization from Congress before involving US forces in Russia Ukraine conflict. Again, 557 00:31:54,520 --> 00:31:57,360 Speaker 1: that is what the Constitution says. You shouldn't have to 558 00:31:57,360 --> 00:32:00,720 Speaker 1: write a letter to demand such things. And God forbid 559 00:32:00,760 --> 00:32:03,960 Speaker 1: we come to the place where Biden and the White 560 00:32:03,960 --> 00:32:08,040 Speaker 1: House are actually contemplating putting troops on the ground in Ukraine. 561 00:32:08,480 --> 00:32:11,960 Speaker 1: But clearly you've got a significant number of members of 562 00:32:11,960 --> 00:32:15,680 Speaker 1: Congress who see that as a live possibility enough that 563 00:32:15,720 --> 00:32:17,840 Speaker 1: they want to preempt that conversation by saying, at the 564 00:32:17,920 --> 00:32:21,040 Speaker 1: very least, we have to authorize this through Congress. We 565 00:32:21,160 --> 00:32:25,040 Speaker 1: have to follow constitutional procedures, which is something that precedents 566 00:32:25,040 --> 00:32:30,200 Speaker 1: have now been skirting administration after administration. So that's both 567 00:32:30,680 --> 00:32:33,640 Speaker 1: important to see that there is bipartisan demand that you 568 00:32:33,680 --> 00:32:36,239 Speaker 1: have to follow these procedures, but it's also troubling that 569 00:32:36,480 --> 00:32:41,239 Speaker 1: obviously they understand where this could potentially lead. Now, what 570 00:32:41,240 --> 00:32:44,000 Speaker 1: we're more likely to see than our own boots directly 571 00:32:44,000 --> 00:32:46,080 Speaker 1: on the ground, as you were laying out, Zager, is 572 00:32:46,360 --> 00:32:49,560 Speaker 1: you know something again akin to Afghanistan, where we were 573 00:32:49,600 --> 00:32:53,440 Speaker 1: training the insurgents and we were not directly in, but 574 00:32:53,600 --> 00:32:58,160 Speaker 1: we were both overtly and covertly training, arming, and very 575 00:32:58,280 --> 00:33:01,280 Speaker 1: very much involved in the urgency there. And I think 576 00:33:01,320 --> 00:33:03,680 Speaker 1: that is something that we are highly likely to see 577 00:33:03,760 --> 00:33:06,280 Speaker 1: and are in fact, And even if it's not us, 578 00:33:06,280 --> 00:33:09,680 Speaker 1: the Pole, you think the Poles won't do it, the Estonians, Lithuanians, Latvians, 579 00:33:09,680 --> 00:33:11,480 Speaker 1: I mean, so many more of these people, you should, 580 00:33:11,640 --> 00:33:13,560 Speaker 1: you know, if we can't forget, they have legitimate beef 581 00:33:13,600 --> 00:33:16,479 Speaker 1: and they've also been occupied also by the Russians, and 582 00:33:16,600 --> 00:33:19,920 Speaker 1: they're probably the most maximal whatever it comes to what 583 00:33:19,960 --> 00:33:23,440 Speaker 1: they would like to see. That's what Putin has underestimated. 584 00:33:23,440 --> 00:33:27,240 Speaker 1: He truly has awoken a sleeping giant here in the West. 585 00:33:27,880 --> 00:33:31,880 Speaker 1: Massive European defense budgets are coming. Do not be surprised 586 00:33:31,960 --> 00:33:34,760 Speaker 1: within given the bipartisan consensus. We'll talk a little bit 587 00:33:34,800 --> 00:33:36,880 Speaker 1: more in the next block about some of the breaks 588 00:33:36,880 --> 00:33:39,440 Speaker 1: within the GOP, but it's going to be I mean, 589 00:33:39,480 --> 00:33:42,200 Speaker 1: the tide of public opinion and especially of pressure in 590 00:33:42,320 --> 00:33:45,440 Speaker 1: Washington is going to lead to a huge increase in 591 00:33:45,480 --> 00:33:47,760 Speaker 1: our own domestic defense. I am not going to be 592 00:33:47,800 --> 00:33:51,760 Speaker 1: surprised to see US troops be deployed almost immediately to 593 00:33:52,040 --> 00:33:54,880 Speaker 1: NATO's eastern flank and to shore all of that up. 594 00:33:55,040 --> 00:33:57,560 Speaker 1: There's going to be a change in the US nuclear posture. 595 00:33:57,720 --> 00:33:59,360 Speaker 1: There is going to be a change in the US 596 00:33:59,480 --> 00:34:03,080 Speaker 1: naval posts We have long actually been pivoting much more 597 00:34:03,240 --> 00:34:06,920 Speaker 1: towards Asia, the North Sea and around Iceland and all 598 00:34:06,960 --> 00:34:09,560 Speaker 1: of that submarine alley, all of that is coming back. 599 00:34:09,600 --> 00:34:12,640 Speaker 1: And this is something again that is what brought us 600 00:34:12,680 --> 00:34:15,200 Speaker 1: on the brink of nuclear war in the first place, 601 00:34:15,520 --> 00:34:17,960 Speaker 1: and that is my great, great fear. And this is 602 00:34:17,960 --> 00:34:21,080 Speaker 1: where Congress needs exercised some restraint. And it's always in 603 00:34:21,120 --> 00:34:24,879 Speaker 1: these most emotional times as hardest to say, Look, it's 604 00:34:24,920 --> 00:34:29,080 Speaker 1: what's happening horrible, it's a crime. Not hitler though, and 605 00:34:29,360 --> 00:34:32,120 Speaker 1: that's exactly the same lesson. We have to remember the 606 00:34:32,200 --> 00:34:35,800 Speaker 1: lessons of escalation, because if you let emotion cloud your judgment, 607 00:34:36,280 --> 00:34:39,880 Speaker 1: millions will be dead within moments. I mean, that's we 608 00:34:39,920 --> 00:34:42,759 Speaker 1: have not faced a geopolitical situation like this in a 609 00:34:42,800 --> 00:34:46,920 Speaker 1: long time, especially whenever nuclear weapons were involved, and Putin's 610 00:34:46,920 --> 00:34:51,360 Speaker 1: cavalier threats around nuke's are really terrifying. Another thing I 611 00:34:51,400 --> 00:34:53,400 Speaker 1: want to emphasize in terms of the realignment that you 612 00:34:53,400 --> 00:34:56,080 Speaker 1: were talking about earlier, because this is all breaking this morning, 613 00:34:56,320 --> 00:34:58,600 Speaker 1: is that the Chinese actually just called and blamed the 614 00:34:58,719 --> 00:35:01,879 Speaker 1: United States for ignite this crisis. So they're very much 615 00:35:01,880 --> 00:35:05,520 Speaker 1: seizing themselves upon the sides of the Russians, turning themselves 616 00:35:05,520 --> 00:35:08,000 Speaker 1: into some sort of acts as power. And I say 617 00:35:08,040 --> 00:35:11,640 Speaker 1: all this, I don't want war with anybody, but it 618 00:35:11,680 --> 00:35:14,359 Speaker 1: is clear that when they're going to take maximal action 619 00:35:14,560 --> 00:35:17,160 Speaker 1: like this, that they are going to green light some 620 00:35:17,239 --> 00:35:20,400 Speaker 1: sort of response from Washington, which then creates a response 621 00:35:20,680 --> 00:35:22,560 Speaker 1: on their end. And if they're going to act so 622 00:35:22,680 --> 00:35:26,120 Speaker 1: belligerently as we once did in Iraq, they're going to 623 00:35:26,160 --> 00:35:29,400 Speaker 1: find out that you were going to have big consequences 624 00:35:29,640 --> 00:35:33,400 Speaker 1: in the world stage on public opinion, the European Union. 625 00:35:33,640 --> 00:35:36,719 Speaker 1: I mean to see British leaders into German leaders who 626 00:35:36,760 --> 00:35:39,120 Speaker 1: I frankly have always thought are weak, and you know, 627 00:35:39,239 --> 00:35:43,560 Speaker 1: side players who turn themselves that way for a long time. 628 00:35:43,880 --> 00:35:46,879 Speaker 1: They're reigniting in rhetoric we haven't seen. I've only read 629 00:35:46,880 --> 00:35:49,560 Speaker 1: about in history books. And you know, this is just 630 00:35:49,600 --> 00:35:52,719 Speaker 1: such a horrible situation and Washington is really going to 631 00:35:52,800 --> 00:35:55,719 Speaker 1: have to decide. And I do implore and command these 632 00:35:55,760 --> 00:35:58,560 Speaker 1: congressmen who said, look, anything you do has to be 633 00:35:58,600 --> 00:36:01,400 Speaker 1: have a robust debate Congress, which is what we deserve. 634 00:36:01,680 --> 00:36:04,400 Speaker 1: We had that in nineteen forty whenever it came to 635 00:36:04,440 --> 00:36:06,840 Speaker 1: the actual declarations of war and how to confront Hitler. 636 00:36:07,080 --> 00:36:09,360 Speaker 1: It's how we had a big debate in this country 637 00:36:09,360 --> 00:36:12,600 Speaker 1: in nineteen fourteen before World War One. We didn't have 638 00:36:12,640 --> 00:36:15,040 Speaker 1: that debate, which we deserved whenever it came to the 639 00:36:15,040 --> 00:36:17,440 Speaker 1: war in Iraq, and on this one, we deserve a 640 00:36:17,520 --> 00:36:19,960 Speaker 1: robust one on how we're going to respond. We're going 641 00:36:20,040 --> 00:36:21,879 Speaker 1: to be dealing with this for many years to Congress. Yeah, 642 00:36:21,880 --> 00:36:24,920 Speaker 1: and there's there are no easy decisions here. You know, 643 00:36:24,960 --> 00:36:27,719 Speaker 1: how much do you hurt the Russian civilians? What do 644 00:36:27,760 --> 00:36:30,200 Speaker 1: you plan for in terms of counterattacks? What is this 645 00:36:30,280 --> 00:36:33,120 Speaker 1: going to do to you know, the refugee crisis, What 646 00:36:33,239 --> 00:36:35,200 Speaker 1: is this going to do to prices in Europe, to 647 00:36:35,239 --> 00:36:39,160 Speaker 1: prices here. It's going to be a rocky and difficult 648 00:36:39,280 --> 00:36:41,680 Speaker 1: road here, and we'll be feeling our way through what 649 00:36:41,840 --> 00:36:48,640 Speaker 1: is truly a new world realignment. Soccer. Let's take a 650 00:36:48,680 --> 00:36:53,000 Speaker 1: look at how the Republicans have been truly divided about 651 00:36:53,040 --> 00:36:54,520 Speaker 1: how they want to deal with all of those. Yeah, 652 00:36:54,520 --> 00:36:56,279 Speaker 1: this has been a fascinating kind of thing to watch. 653 00:36:56,280 --> 00:36:58,759 Speaker 1: I'm curious to see how the Ukraine actual invasion will 654 00:36:58,840 --> 00:37:02,319 Speaker 1: change things. But Trump can't help but Trump himself. So 655 00:37:02,600 --> 00:37:04,320 Speaker 1: here's the statement that he put out. Go ahead and 656 00:37:04,320 --> 00:37:07,040 Speaker 1: put this up there on the screen. Quote Putin is 657 00:37:07,040 --> 00:37:09,680 Speaker 1: playing Biden like a drum. It's not a pretty thing 658 00:37:09,719 --> 00:37:12,800 Speaker 1: to watch. There's kind of been a really gross cheering 659 00:37:12,840 --> 00:37:15,840 Speaker 1: on Crystal by a lot of segments of the American 660 00:37:15,920 --> 00:37:18,120 Speaker 1: right that I've observed, in which they kind of relish 661 00:37:18,200 --> 00:37:21,480 Speaker 1: seeing the world order crumble in order to own the 662 00:37:21,520 --> 00:37:23,960 Speaker 1: libs and be like, see, this didn't happen under Trump. 663 00:37:24,000 --> 00:37:26,880 Speaker 1: I mean, look, that's empirically true. But also, you know, 664 00:37:26,960 --> 00:37:28,880 Speaker 1: I would say that in a time like this, you 665 00:37:28,880 --> 00:37:31,719 Speaker 1: can criticize the president find which I do plenty, but 666 00:37:32,000 --> 00:37:37,360 Speaker 1: you know, I think like cheering actively cheering. And again 667 00:37:37,600 --> 00:37:40,480 Speaker 1: I hate how much this sounds like some Russiagate stuff, 668 00:37:40,520 --> 00:37:43,279 Speaker 1: Like you can parse it between like, okay, you know 669 00:37:43,360 --> 00:37:46,880 Speaker 1: what Trump says about Putin or what you know, pursuing 670 00:37:46,920 --> 00:37:50,920 Speaker 1: better relations with Russia, that's not treason or whatever. Also 671 00:37:51,000 --> 00:37:53,000 Speaker 1: praising Putin in this it's also not treason. I mean, 672 00:37:53,000 --> 00:37:55,040 Speaker 1: it's kind of gross in terms of what you're doing. 673 00:37:55,320 --> 00:37:58,200 Speaker 1: And that's where I would put the current domestic political 674 00:37:58,200 --> 00:38:02,720 Speaker 1: situation in terms of what he said specifically, it's frankly 675 00:38:02,760 --> 00:38:04,960 Speaker 1: the most Trump response of all time. This is an 676 00:38:04,960 --> 00:38:07,440 Speaker 1: interview he gave to Buck Sexton just a couple of 677 00:38:07,480 --> 00:38:09,320 Speaker 1: days ago. Let's put it up there on the screen. 678 00:38:09,600 --> 00:38:12,600 Speaker 1: Which is he says, quote Putin is now saying it's 679 00:38:12,640 --> 00:38:15,560 Speaker 1: independent a large section of Ukraine. I said, quote, how 680 00:38:15,600 --> 00:38:17,440 Speaker 1: smart is that he's going to go in and be 681 00:38:17,480 --> 00:38:20,160 Speaker 1: a peacekeeper. We could use that on our southern border. 682 00:38:20,400 --> 00:38:23,960 Speaker 1: He's a guy who's very savvy. I think the funniest thing, Crystal, 683 00:38:24,239 --> 00:38:25,840 Speaker 1: let's go ahead and put this next tear sheet up 684 00:38:25,880 --> 00:38:28,160 Speaker 1: there on the screen, which kind of describes the big 685 00:38:28,200 --> 00:38:33,280 Speaker 1: Republican dynamic that Trump apparently said that Ukraine is great 686 00:38:33,400 --> 00:38:37,080 Speaker 1: quote from a real estate standpoint. God for Putin, so 687 00:38:37,520 --> 00:38:40,239 Speaker 1: and he's always always be closing, he's always thinking in 688 00:38:40,320 --> 00:38:45,400 Speaker 1: that that mindset. This really is disgraceful to and he continued, 689 00:38:45,440 --> 00:38:48,640 Speaker 1: I mean, it really is disgraceful to. It's not treason, 690 00:38:48,840 --> 00:38:53,600 Speaker 1: it's not you know, impeachable or whatever, but it is 691 00:38:53,680 --> 00:38:58,200 Speaker 1: disgraceful to be basically like praising and cheering on a 692 00:38:58,239 --> 00:39:02,040 Speaker 1: guy who is just aggrossive, like initiating a war that 693 00:39:02,160 --> 00:39:06,040 Speaker 1: is going to have massive consequences, especially for the Ukrainian people, 694 00:39:06,400 --> 00:39:09,560 Speaker 1: result in death and destruction, but also for our own people. Here. 695 00:39:09,560 --> 00:39:11,200 Speaker 1: Part of the reason the America first and all that 696 00:39:11,200 --> 00:39:13,880 Speaker 1: it resonated with me was because the seminal moment of 697 00:39:13,920 --> 00:39:17,080 Speaker 1: my life was the belligerent US invasion of Iraq. It 698 00:39:17,200 --> 00:39:19,840 Speaker 1: was terrible. This is the same thing. We should be 699 00:39:19,920 --> 00:39:22,840 Speaker 1: condemning it and being feeling exactly the same way in 700 00:39:22,880 --> 00:39:25,840 Speaker 1: our hatred of what is happening. That doesn't mean that 701 00:39:25,880 --> 00:39:27,920 Speaker 1: you have the green light war. And I don't like 702 00:39:28,040 --> 00:39:31,480 Speaker 1: Joe Biden either, you know, criticize him plenty here on 703 00:39:31,520 --> 00:39:34,239 Speaker 1: the show, but to see all of it devolve into 704 00:39:34,280 --> 00:39:37,759 Speaker 1: the cultural war is actually deeply, deeply sad. That being said, 705 00:39:37,880 --> 00:39:40,960 Speaker 1: on the actual specifics, there is a huge debate about 706 00:39:40,960 --> 00:39:43,959 Speaker 1: what's happening on Capitol Hill. Throw that Politico tear sheet 707 00:39:44,000 --> 00:39:46,160 Speaker 1: back up there on the screen, please, because what they 708 00:39:46,200 --> 00:39:48,840 Speaker 1: go into is that Republicans are descending into foreign policy 709 00:39:48,880 --> 00:39:52,880 Speaker 1: factionalism over Russia and Ukraine. So Senator Josh Holly had 710 00:39:52,880 --> 00:39:55,520 Speaker 1: actually come out and basically taken similar position to what 711 00:39:55,600 --> 00:39:58,040 Speaker 1: we had said Crystal, saying, look, I don't think that 712 00:39:58,120 --> 00:40:00,880 Speaker 1: Ukraine should be a part of natozing the role of 713 00:40:00,960 --> 00:40:04,520 Speaker 1: NATO expansion he you know, obviously departs from you. He 714 00:40:04,560 --> 00:40:06,480 Speaker 1: said that, He's like, look, I think this distracts from 715 00:40:06,520 --> 00:40:08,840 Speaker 1: our number one geopolitical threat with his China. I frankly 716 00:40:08,880 --> 00:40:11,800 Speaker 1: agree with that. But what it is is that the 717 00:40:11,840 --> 00:40:16,000 Speaker 1: difference is that the other side of the GOP and 718 00:40:16,040 --> 00:40:19,279 Speaker 1: frankly the more at least representative side from a pure 719 00:40:19,680 --> 00:40:23,040 Speaker 1: what they believe in the Senate, Mitch McConnell, Tom Cotton 720 00:40:23,080 --> 00:40:25,880 Speaker 1: and all of that is kind of maximally neocon. I mean, 721 00:40:25,920 --> 00:40:29,319 Speaker 1: we saw Mitch McConnell and Lindsay Graham, you know, of 722 00:40:29,320 --> 00:40:33,799 Speaker 1: course unhinged, unrestructed neocon and probably still apologizes for the 723 00:40:33,840 --> 00:40:36,280 Speaker 1: war in Iraq, you know, floating some sort of US 724 00:40:36,520 --> 00:40:39,920 Speaker 1: must be involved all of this. Mitch McConnell similarly, remember 725 00:40:39,960 --> 00:40:43,160 Speaker 1: that we saw that he praised Biden for sending troops abroad. 726 00:40:43,280 --> 00:40:45,040 Speaker 1: I wouldn't be surprised if he said that we should 727 00:40:45,080 --> 00:40:47,720 Speaker 1: green light some sort of you know, Cold War whatever 728 00:40:48,239 --> 00:40:50,960 Speaker 1: in terms of a Ukraine insurgency. So that is the 729 00:40:50,960 --> 00:40:54,000 Speaker 1: big split. Obviously, Tucker Carlson on the side of Josh 730 00:40:54,040 --> 00:40:56,759 Speaker 1: Holly with the Republican base. It's hard to find a 731 00:40:56,760 --> 00:40:59,960 Speaker 1: way that this all works because what people miss under 732 00:41:00,239 --> 00:41:04,319 Speaker 1: what people underestimate, I'm sorry, misunderstand. I just almost pulled 733 00:41:04,320 --> 00:41:07,920 Speaker 1: at George misunderestimate. Yeah, what people don't seem to understand 734 00:41:08,200 --> 00:41:10,920 Speaker 1: is that the Republican base does not have any theory 735 00:41:10,960 --> 00:41:14,640 Speaker 1: of geopolitics. They love the culture war and that's pretty 736 00:41:14,719 --> 00:41:16,920 Speaker 1: much it. And so what I see people would be like, 737 00:41:16,960 --> 00:41:19,640 Speaker 1: the base wants to stay out, the base wants to stand. 738 00:41:19,960 --> 00:41:23,160 Speaker 1: The base is with whatever Trump says. So I think 739 00:41:23,320 --> 00:41:26,160 Speaker 1: it very much is the default to look at Biden, 740 00:41:26,239 --> 00:41:29,279 Speaker 1: he's a fool all of that. I mean, if you 741 00:41:29,320 --> 00:41:32,000 Speaker 1: were to come down to the US invasion, everybody's probably 742 00:41:32,000 --> 00:41:34,400 Speaker 1: against it. But people who are trying to say, like 743 00:41:34,440 --> 00:41:36,480 Speaker 1: this is what the base wants or not, I don't 744 00:41:36,520 --> 00:41:38,920 Speaker 1: think people have any deep theories on it. And I 745 00:41:38,960 --> 00:41:42,080 Speaker 1: could see the base getting you know, if the conditions 746 00:41:42,080 --> 00:41:44,440 Speaker 1: were correct, I could see the base being persuaded that 747 00:41:44,480 --> 00:41:46,520 Speaker 1: we should be boots on the ground. We should be 748 00:41:46,800 --> 00:41:48,840 Speaker 1: Trump was like, we should by this week, and we 749 00:41:48,840 --> 00:41:51,840 Speaker 1: should send troops. They would all be Afghanistan. These are 750 00:41:52,120 --> 00:41:53,880 Speaker 1: the same people who cheered on Warren a Rock for 751 00:41:53,960 --> 00:41:56,400 Speaker 1: it a very long time. So I mean that you know, 752 00:41:56,520 --> 00:42:00,640 Speaker 1: our public has people are fickle, people are very nationalistic, 753 00:42:01,280 --> 00:42:03,080 Speaker 1: and you know, they don't like to see us sort 754 00:42:03,080 --> 00:42:05,480 Speaker 1: of like humiliated on the world stage, which this has 755 00:42:05,520 --> 00:42:09,359 Speaker 1: to be seen as a global humiliation. And so you know, 756 00:42:09,520 --> 00:42:12,080 Speaker 1: it is going to be very interesting to see how 757 00:42:12,239 --> 00:42:15,799 Speaker 1: Trump responds, how the Republican Party responds. I think what 758 00:42:15,840 --> 00:42:19,360 Speaker 1: I've seen so far, even among like the same individual 759 00:42:19,840 --> 00:42:23,799 Speaker 1: is something that is really incoherent. That's both sort of 760 00:42:23,880 --> 00:42:28,439 Speaker 1: like you know, anti intervention, but also Biden's not being 761 00:42:28,480 --> 00:42:32,160 Speaker 1: strong enough, but also you know, and I think the one, 762 00:42:32,680 --> 00:42:35,719 Speaker 1: the one consistent thread that you will hear from all 763 00:42:35,760 --> 00:42:39,240 Speaker 1: of these people is it didn't happen under Trump without 764 00:42:39,320 --> 00:42:41,719 Speaker 1: laying out like what he did that was different, that 765 00:42:41,880 --> 00:42:44,520 Speaker 1: was better, or what Biden did that was wrong, just 766 00:42:44,920 --> 00:42:47,160 Speaker 1: it didn't happen under Trump, So we got to go 767 00:42:47,239 --> 00:42:49,360 Speaker 1: back to Trump. I think that'll be the most consistent 768 00:42:50,280 --> 00:42:53,720 Speaker 1: that you hear, which isn't you know, particularly thoughtful or nuanced, 769 00:42:53,760 --> 00:42:57,080 Speaker 1: but that'll be that'll be the common thread that holds 770 00:42:57,120 --> 00:42:59,799 Speaker 1: them all to you know. I mean, here's the thing too. 771 00:43:00,000 --> 00:43:03,920 Speaker 1: Trump departed from the Obama administration policy of arming the Ukrainians. 772 00:43:03,960 --> 00:43:06,040 Speaker 1: People forget that he's the one who sent them lethal aid. 773 00:43:06,160 --> 00:43:08,560 Speaker 1: This was a huge debate in Washington in twenty fifteen. 774 00:43:08,640 --> 00:43:11,000 Speaker 1: I mean, he got impeached over him, yes, over the 775 00:43:11,040 --> 00:43:14,560 Speaker 1: fact that so it's not sending and then you know, 776 00:43:14,600 --> 00:43:17,000 Speaker 1: and he had a different position on nord Stream. I 777 00:43:17,040 --> 00:43:22,480 Speaker 1: actually think it maybe is less about those individual decisions. 778 00:43:22,680 --> 00:43:26,560 Speaker 1: And Trump was very hostile to NATO, and you know, 779 00:43:26,719 --> 00:43:30,600 Speaker 1: I mean I personally think that one thing, you know, 780 00:43:30,680 --> 00:43:32,359 Speaker 1: I have lots of issues with Trump, I think that 781 00:43:32,400 --> 00:43:35,920 Speaker 1: one thing is the correct posture because I agree, why 782 00:43:36,000 --> 00:43:38,600 Speaker 1: do we still have NATO? I mean again, I think 783 00:43:38,640 --> 00:43:42,600 Speaker 1: what we saw from the big Putin speech is that 784 00:43:42,680 --> 00:43:45,680 Speaker 1: this was about a lot more than NATO. And even 785 00:43:45,800 --> 00:43:49,960 Speaker 1: you know, sort of saying putting Ukraine completely off the 786 00:43:50,040 --> 00:43:54,880 Speaker 1: table and having a different posture towards NATO probably wouldn't 787 00:43:54,920 --> 00:43:57,440 Speaker 1: have been enough to stop this from happening. But in 788 00:43:57,560 --> 00:44:00,839 Speaker 1: terms of the orientation of Trump and how that may 789 00:44:00,880 --> 00:44:04,080 Speaker 1: have changed Putin's thinking or put him off till now, 790 00:44:04,880 --> 00:44:07,880 Speaker 1: probably the animus towards NATO was maybe the biggest FACTORTA. 791 00:44:07,960 --> 00:44:09,799 Speaker 1: That's just my guest. I mean, look, I think NATO 792 00:44:09,920 --> 00:44:12,160 Speaker 1: has a role. I don't think the expanded NATO was 793 00:44:12,200 --> 00:44:14,759 Speaker 1: a good idea. That being said, that's what it is 794 00:44:14,800 --> 00:44:16,520 Speaker 1: now and there's no changing that. Well, you know, And 795 00:44:16,560 --> 00:44:18,920 Speaker 1: so I really thought it was interesting in Putin's speech 796 00:44:19,000 --> 00:44:20,719 Speaker 1: when who knows if this is true or not, but 797 00:44:20,760 --> 00:44:23,720 Speaker 1: when he's talked about I said to President Clinton, Okay, 798 00:44:23,719 --> 00:44:27,279 Speaker 1: well in nineteen ninety, yeah, how about we're member in NATO, right, 799 00:44:27,920 --> 00:44:31,440 Speaker 1: basically just proving like you say, this isn't about us anymore, 800 00:44:31,520 --> 00:44:34,440 Speaker 1: but this feels like it's still about us. No one 801 00:44:34,440 --> 00:44:36,880 Speaker 1: can prove that. I've never I read Clinton's biography. You 802 00:44:36,920 --> 00:44:40,239 Speaker 1: never mentioned that it's possible. Uh, look, who knows, you know, 803 00:44:40,239 --> 00:44:42,680 Speaker 1: with Putin whether he's lying. And here's the other thing 804 00:44:42,680 --> 00:44:44,719 Speaker 1: that we always have to keep in mind is, you know, 805 00:44:45,360 --> 00:44:47,359 Speaker 1: for us, we're looking at this, we're like, we don't 806 00:44:47,400 --> 00:44:49,960 Speaker 1: even want Ukraine and NATO really, so like, what are 807 00:44:50,000 --> 00:44:52,839 Speaker 1: you so freaked out about? But in the same way 808 00:44:52,880 --> 00:44:58,000 Speaker 1: that we perceive our adversaries every move as aggressive and intentional, 809 00:44:58,200 --> 00:45:00,560 Speaker 1: they of course view it the same way from our perpective. 810 00:45:00,600 --> 00:45:03,360 Speaker 1: Oh look there, and they have a long long history 811 00:45:03,400 --> 00:45:05,759 Speaker 1: going back over a thousand years, of being suspicious of 812 00:45:05,800 --> 00:45:09,480 Speaker 1: the West, of being paranoid of any sort of uclations, 813 00:45:09,520 --> 00:45:11,960 Speaker 1: you know, not necessarily wrong, I think, I think you're 814 00:45:12,000 --> 00:45:14,520 Speaker 1: probably right. I think that the Trump posture towards NATO 815 00:45:14,719 --> 00:45:18,360 Speaker 1: and being you know, very critical rightfully, in my opinion, 816 00:45:18,440 --> 00:45:22,240 Speaker 1: I long supported this admonishing the Europeans for not fulfilling 817 00:45:22,239 --> 00:45:25,759 Speaker 1: their defense obligations, frankly, was the correct posture. And I 818 00:45:25,760 --> 00:45:27,960 Speaker 1: think it's also funny in a way, this is a 819 00:45:28,040 --> 00:45:31,799 Speaker 1: major vindication of that posture. You people, at the end 820 00:45:31,840 --> 00:45:34,680 Speaker 1: of the day, primary deterrence was up to you. If 821 00:45:34,680 --> 00:45:37,120 Speaker 1: there's a war on the European continent, you're the people 822 00:45:37,160 --> 00:45:39,279 Speaker 1: on the front line. And yet you spend one point 823 00:45:39,360 --> 00:45:41,640 Speaker 1: five percent of your GDP, you have way more of 824 00:45:41,680 --> 00:45:44,360 Speaker 1: a threat against Russia than America ever will. And the 825 00:45:44,400 --> 00:45:46,640 Speaker 1: Germans would always say, oh, you don't understand. You know, 826 00:45:46,680 --> 00:45:49,560 Speaker 1: it's a different situation now. I mean, look, who looks 827 00:45:49,560 --> 00:45:52,480 Speaker 1: like an idiot now? And it's your country. You guys 828 00:45:52,520 --> 00:45:55,640 Speaker 1: decide you're only a thousand miles away from Kiev or whatever. 829 00:45:55,880 --> 00:45:58,920 Speaker 1: And I think that this is a vindication of that policy. 830 00:45:59,080 --> 00:46:02,280 Speaker 1: But also you're correct, which is that his posture towards 831 00:46:02,320 --> 00:46:04,920 Speaker 1: NATO very likely made it so that he didn't seem 832 00:46:05,040 --> 00:46:08,120 Speaker 1: to be a real possibility. At the same time, I 833 00:46:08,200 --> 00:46:10,799 Speaker 1: just don't know With Putin, I mean, it was never 834 00:46:10,840 --> 00:46:13,600 Speaker 1: in the cards to let Ukraine into NATO, at least 835 00:46:13,640 --> 00:46:16,400 Speaker 1: in the last year. So yeah, nothing changed on that front, 836 00:46:16,480 --> 00:46:21,439 Speaker 1: that's true. It could also be you know, look, he's old. Yeah, 837 00:46:21,440 --> 00:46:24,399 Speaker 1: We're in a very weak position right now coming out 838 00:46:24,440 --> 00:46:28,520 Speaker 1: of the pandemic. You know, the nation is completely divided. 839 00:46:29,080 --> 00:46:32,880 Speaker 1: We had an extraordinarily high death rate from COVID compared 840 00:46:32,920 --> 00:46:35,279 Speaker 1: to the rest of the world. We can't agree on 841 00:46:35,400 --> 00:46:38,759 Speaker 1: like the basics of society. You've got eighty percent of 842 00:46:38,800 --> 00:46:42,160 Speaker 1: the public that says we're on the wrong track. Biden 843 00:46:42,239 --> 00:46:45,040 Speaker 1: doesn't exactly, you know, score great marks when it comes 844 00:46:45,040 --> 00:46:50,400 Speaker 1: to projecting strength, competence, capability, all of those things. And 845 00:46:50,480 --> 00:46:53,600 Speaker 1: so it could just be, you know, partly kind of 846 00:46:53,640 --> 00:46:56,919 Speaker 1: timing coming out of the pandemic and seeing this very 847 00:46:57,320 --> 00:47:00,719 Speaker 1: weakened America and deciding part of which is Biden's fault, 848 00:47:00,760 --> 00:47:04,400 Speaker 1: part of which is Trump's fault, and deciding that, you know, 849 00:47:04,520 --> 00:47:07,880 Speaker 1: now's the time to strike. I don't think listen, we 850 00:47:07,920 --> 00:47:11,120 Speaker 1: will never know, but we do know that the Republican 851 00:47:11,160 --> 00:47:13,239 Speaker 1: line will be. It didn't happen under Trump, and they 852 00:47:13,280 --> 00:47:15,839 Speaker 1: won't have to provide it rightly specific says to why. 853 00:47:16,000 --> 00:47:17,880 Speaker 1: Given what we're about to talk about, that's going to 854 00:47:17,960 --> 00:47:19,880 Speaker 1: be a very compelling pitch in twenty twenty four So 855 00:47:19,880 --> 00:47:23,600 Speaker 1: why don't we get Yeah, so let's talk about that. Uh, prices. Listen, 856 00:47:23,680 --> 00:47:27,920 Speaker 1: the markets are in free fall basically across the globe 857 00:47:28,120 --> 00:47:31,680 Speaker 1: as a result of this. We can take a look 858 00:47:31,719 --> 00:47:36,719 Speaker 1: at the very latest numbers. We've got oil over one 859 00:47:36,800 --> 00:47:40,920 Speaker 1: hundred dollars a barrel. That is the first time that 860 00:47:41,000 --> 00:47:44,640 Speaker 1: has happened since twenty fourteen. You guys already know what 861 00:47:44,680 --> 00:47:48,279 Speaker 1: you're paying at the pump. This is going to have 862 00:47:48,400 --> 00:47:53,040 Speaker 1: significant impacts on and of course oil isn't just about 863 00:47:53,080 --> 00:47:56,480 Speaker 1: what you pay at the pump. Oil is critical input 864 00:47:56,680 --> 00:47:59,959 Speaker 1: for almost everything in our society. So when you see 865 00:48:00,080 --> 00:48:04,960 Speaker 1: oil go up, you see prices for basically everything rise 866 00:48:05,640 --> 00:48:08,560 Speaker 1: at a time when inflation is already very high, So 867 00:48:08,960 --> 00:48:12,280 Speaker 1: that is critical. The numbers that I looked at this morning, 868 00:48:12,280 --> 00:48:15,080 Speaker 1: you had the European markets this is from CNBC that 869 00:48:15,120 --> 00:48:19,760 Speaker 1: fell sharply at the open. You had Germany market down 870 00:48:19,880 --> 00:48:23,360 Speaker 1: three point six percent, leading regional losses. Shares in Asia 871 00:48:23,400 --> 00:48:27,680 Speaker 1: Pacific plummeted across the board, led by three point two 872 00:48:27,719 --> 00:48:32,480 Speaker 1: percent decline in Hong Kong. We've got stock futures cratering 873 00:48:32,600 --> 00:48:37,360 Speaker 1: stateside futures on Dow Jones average, indicating a loss of 874 00:48:37,440 --> 00:48:42,440 Speaker 1: more than six hundred points at the open. Actually eight 875 00:48:42,520 --> 00:48:45,240 Speaker 1: hundred now, I just looked eight hundred now the very latest. 876 00:48:45,280 --> 00:48:47,960 Speaker 1: Thank you for that update. Russian rubles sank to an 877 00:48:48,000 --> 00:48:51,520 Speaker 1: all time low against the dollar, and then you have 878 00:48:51,960 --> 00:48:55,960 Speaker 1: you know, those safe harbors or perceived safe harbors of course, 879 00:48:56,040 --> 00:49:00,520 Speaker 1: all spiking massively. Spot gold jumped to its highighest level 880 00:49:00,560 --> 00:49:03,759 Speaker 1: in more than a year, Wheat futures spiked to their 881 00:49:03,800 --> 00:49:07,719 Speaker 1: highest level since twenty twelve, Soybin futures notched an all 882 00:49:07,760 --> 00:49:11,800 Speaker 1: time high. So you know this is going We already 883 00:49:11,840 --> 00:49:18,040 Speaker 1: were in a shaky place economically, obviously in terms of inflation, 884 00:49:18,680 --> 00:49:22,520 Speaker 1: in terms of oil costs, and in terms of the markets, 885 00:49:22,920 --> 00:49:26,719 Speaker 1: which were you know, already in uh correction territory in 886 00:49:26,760 --> 00:49:30,640 Speaker 1: some instances. And obviously this is everybody's worst case scenario. 887 00:49:30,640 --> 00:49:33,960 Speaker 1: I think a lot of Wall Street did not, like us, 888 00:49:34,560 --> 00:49:39,200 Speaker 1: think that we would see actual all out war, full 889 00:49:39,239 --> 00:49:43,359 Speaker 1: scale invasion. So there's going to be huge fallout from that. 890 00:49:44,400 --> 00:49:48,920 Speaker 1: You couple that with obviously you know, refugee crisis. You 891 00:49:49,000 --> 00:49:53,759 Speaker 1: couple that with just total uncertainty with what's the Fed 892 00:49:53,840 --> 00:49:56,160 Speaker 1: going to do now in terms of rate changes? How 893 00:49:56,160 --> 00:49:59,480 Speaker 1: were they going to adjust their posture? And this looks 894 00:49:59,520 --> 00:50:01,680 Speaker 1: like a whole lot of pain, oh man, I mean, 895 00:50:01,760 --> 00:50:04,279 Speaker 1: eight hundred point down the ruble at its lowest k 896 00:50:04,480 --> 00:50:06,640 Speaker 1: I do want to say that the Russians have actually 897 00:50:06,680 --> 00:50:08,680 Speaker 1: been preparing this for a long time, and they have 898 00:50:08,760 --> 00:50:11,960 Speaker 1: a huge amount of currency reserves. So even though we 899 00:50:12,000 --> 00:50:14,600 Speaker 1: would cut them off from the federal reserve system, they've 900 00:50:14,600 --> 00:50:17,279 Speaker 1: apparently been amassing a large war chest and they'll be 901 00:50:17,320 --> 00:50:19,560 Speaker 1: able to withstand the sanctions regime for about a year, 902 00:50:19,760 --> 00:50:22,520 Speaker 1: but it's going to last a whole lot longer than that. 903 00:50:22,719 --> 00:50:25,800 Speaker 1: And you know, in terms of the major response as well, 904 00:50:26,200 --> 00:50:28,960 Speaker 1: this is going to cause significant turmoil here at home. 905 00:50:29,000 --> 00:50:31,799 Speaker 1: I mean President Biden made that clear, and that, in 906 00:50:31,840 --> 00:50:34,439 Speaker 1: my opinion, is the greatest threat to his presidency yet, 907 00:50:34,480 --> 00:50:37,680 Speaker 1: which is, if gas hits five dollars a gallon across 908 00:50:37,719 --> 00:50:39,560 Speaker 1: this country, people are going to freak out. I mean, 909 00:50:39,560 --> 00:50:43,239 Speaker 1: it's already five dollars over in California. Here they talked 910 00:50:43,239 --> 00:50:46,480 Speaker 1: about tapping the strategic oil Reserve. I mean, there ain't 911 00:50:46,840 --> 00:50:49,600 Speaker 1: nothing you can do in order to prevent such something 912 00:50:49,640 --> 00:50:52,440 Speaker 1: going above one hundred hundred and twenty dollars a barrel. 913 00:50:52,520 --> 00:50:56,200 Speaker 1: That's going to be a disaster. And at the same time, 914 00:50:56,520 --> 00:50:59,960 Speaker 1: I mean, also I'm seeing a lot of consternation around 915 00:51:00,239 --> 00:51:04,480 Speaker 1: both Keystone Pipeline about discussion of US fracking. I mean, 916 00:51:04,520 --> 00:51:07,480 Speaker 1: we're going to be going to be seeing significant drilling 917 00:51:07,520 --> 00:51:11,160 Speaker 1: exploration across the American West and the Midwest as well. 918 00:51:11,239 --> 00:51:13,320 Speaker 1: The guide administration is going to pay a big political 919 00:51:13,400 --> 00:51:16,120 Speaker 1: price on that. In my opinion, whether you agree or not, 920 00:51:16,480 --> 00:51:19,080 Speaker 1: I mean, it's a compelling point. I personally was very 921 00:51:19,120 --> 00:51:22,000 Speaker 1: for the pipeline, but it's a disaster for people who 922 00:51:22,000 --> 00:51:25,880 Speaker 1: care about climate change because obviously now yes, they're going 923 00:51:25,960 --> 00:51:29,239 Speaker 1: to be greenlighting all kinds of new projects and to 924 00:51:29,560 --> 00:51:31,880 Speaker 1: you know, dig more fossil fuels out of the ground. 925 00:51:31,960 --> 00:51:34,239 Speaker 1: There's just no doubt about it. So there's no way around. Yeah, 926 00:51:34,280 --> 00:51:37,120 Speaker 1: we have to at this point, the domestic economy is 927 00:51:37,160 --> 00:51:39,800 Speaker 1: going to crash. I mean, heating prices. Also, it's still cold. 928 00:51:39,800 --> 00:51:41,399 Speaker 1: I mean, if we have a cold freeze in March 929 00:51:41,480 --> 00:51:44,480 Speaker 1: or something like that that's going to be catastrophe natural 930 00:51:44,520 --> 00:51:47,360 Speaker 1: gas prices. Another thing I do want to emphasize is 931 00:51:47,400 --> 00:51:51,000 Speaker 1: that a huge, huge portion of nitrogen was coming out 932 00:51:51,040 --> 00:51:54,320 Speaker 1: of China and Russia, and if we see a crackdown 933 00:51:54,360 --> 00:51:57,160 Speaker 1: on the exports from that happens, nitrogen is a key 934 00:51:57,320 --> 00:52:00,400 Speaker 1: ingredient for fertilizer and the increase in nitrogen price is 935 00:52:00,440 --> 00:52:02,560 Speaker 1: what was causing fertilized price to go up, which was 936 00:52:02,560 --> 00:52:05,080 Speaker 1: causing food price pressure. So if we see even more 937 00:52:05,120 --> 00:52:07,759 Speaker 1: of that food, which you know at this point you 938 00:52:07,800 --> 00:52:11,000 Speaker 1: can barely even imagine, could actually go up by forty 939 00:52:11,160 --> 00:52:13,680 Speaker 1: fifty percent. I mean, we have not seen this level 940 00:52:13,719 --> 00:52:17,000 Speaker 1: of global disruption to the US economy in a long time. 941 00:52:17,040 --> 00:52:19,040 Speaker 1: And I callously said in the last show that the 942 00:52:19,080 --> 00:52:21,279 Speaker 1: worst thing it would happen to the global energy and 943 00:52:21,320 --> 00:52:23,719 Speaker 1: I'm sorry, I apologize to the Ukrainians. I didn't mean it, 944 00:52:23,760 --> 00:52:26,000 Speaker 1: because there is going to be a big loss of life. 945 00:52:26,040 --> 00:52:27,920 Speaker 1: But look, this is the US show. I'm trying to 946 00:52:27,920 --> 00:52:29,799 Speaker 1: tell you how it's going to impact your life and 947 00:52:29,840 --> 00:52:33,799 Speaker 1: cause major domestic turmoil. I don't think necessarily Crystal will 948 00:52:33,800 --> 00:52:36,560 Speaker 1: have lines at the gas station, but it's a possibility. 949 00:52:36,640 --> 00:52:40,680 Speaker 1: I mean, and the parallels to the Carter administration keep 950 00:52:40,880 --> 00:52:45,640 Speaker 1: piling up in my mind. Runaway inflation, gas crisis, Soviets 951 00:52:45,680 --> 00:52:48,799 Speaker 1: actually invaded Afghanistan in nineteen seventy nine. All of this 952 00:52:49,040 --> 00:52:50,839 Speaker 1: was sparked by the idea that we had a weak 953 00:52:50,880 --> 00:52:53,560 Speaker 1: West in administration. It led to the rise of Reagan. 954 00:52:53,880 --> 00:52:56,040 Speaker 1: I have no idea what will come next, but I 955 00:52:56,120 --> 00:52:59,600 Speaker 1: really do feel as if we're in this absolute moment 956 00:52:59,719 --> 00:53:02,520 Speaker 1: of critical change the usicon and you're doing your home 957 00:53:02,520 --> 00:53:06,240 Speaker 1: monologue on this even though it was written before before 958 00:53:06,280 --> 00:53:09,600 Speaker 1: the Ukraine invasion, which is that the way people feel 959 00:53:09,640 --> 00:53:11,600 Speaker 1: about work has changed, the way people found their employer 960 00:53:11,640 --> 00:53:15,680 Speaker 1: has changed. The macro economic conditions through which people were 961 00:53:15,719 --> 00:53:19,040 Speaker 1: buying SUVs and stuff that's changed. I mean, you know, 962 00:53:19,560 --> 00:53:22,680 Speaker 1: the way that we consume as a country is going 963 00:53:22,719 --> 00:53:26,719 Speaker 1: to change dramatically. I mean, our imports, exports, everything, and 964 00:53:27,239 --> 00:53:31,200 Speaker 1: divides in our country had already been both cultural divides 965 00:53:31,360 --> 00:53:35,560 Speaker 1: also economic divides. We had already been so pulled apart 966 00:53:35,960 --> 00:53:39,479 Speaker 1: that you know, we're not in a position to take 967 00:53:39,760 --> 00:53:43,000 Speaker 1: socially and culturally the kind of stress and strain that 968 00:53:43,080 --> 00:53:46,120 Speaker 1: we're about to experience. Ken Klippenstein had a piece I 969 00:53:46,160 --> 00:53:48,680 Speaker 1: wanted to highlight that I think is also really significant. 970 00:53:48,719 --> 00:53:50,560 Speaker 1: In the intercept, we don't have a tear sheet from this, 971 00:53:50,600 --> 00:53:52,880 Speaker 1: but I'll read a little bit to you. The headline 972 00:53:52,960 --> 00:53:55,960 Speaker 1: is Saudi Russia collusion is helping to drive up gas 973 00:53:56,000 --> 00:53:59,839 Speaker 1: prices and worsening the Ukraine crisis. A spat between Saudi crin, 974 00:54:00,440 --> 00:54:03,760 Speaker 1: Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salmon, and Biden is pushing 975 00:54:03,800 --> 00:54:07,359 Speaker 1: gas prices ever higher. It started under Obama, he says. 976 00:54:07,360 --> 00:54:10,680 Speaker 1: As Russia ordered troops into Ukraine on Monday, gas prices 977 00:54:10,680 --> 00:54:13,239 Speaker 1: soar to their highest levels in over seven years. While 978 00:54:13,239 --> 00:54:15,400 Speaker 1: the media focus on the conflict in Ukraine, a major 979 00:54:15,440 --> 00:54:18,759 Speaker 1: cause of the gas price bike has gone overlooked. Moscow's 980 00:54:18,800 --> 00:54:23,000 Speaker 1: partnership with Saudi Arabia has grown dramatically in recent years, 981 00:54:23,000 --> 00:54:26,040 Speaker 1: granting the two largest oil producers in the world the 982 00:54:26,160 --> 00:54:31,279 Speaker 1: unprecedented ability to collude in oil export decisions. So you have, 983 00:54:31,880 --> 00:54:34,520 Speaker 1: you know, Russia being backed up by the Chinese, and 984 00:54:34,560 --> 00:54:37,880 Speaker 1: you also have this Russian collusion that's been ongoing for 985 00:54:37,920 --> 00:54:40,000 Speaker 1: a while now. That sounds very Russia gaey, but with 986 00:54:40,120 --> 00:54:46,080 Speaker 1: Saudi Arabia, with the Saudis, right, with the Saudis to 987 00:54:46,800 --> 00:54:51,040 Speaker 1: punish US with higher gas prices, and so you know, 988 00:54:51,120 --> 00:54:54,520 Speaker 1: this adds to the difficult terrain that we will be 989 00:54:54,520 --> 00:54:57,160 Speaker 1: facing here domestically. Oh yeah, I think there were in 990 00:54:57,200 --> 00:55:01,239 Speaker 1: for real domestic turmoil here, and the administration can warn 991 00:55:01,280 --> 00:55:04,319 Speaker 1: all at once, but we need to frack drill. I mean, 992 00:55:04,320 --> 00:55:06,799 Speaker 1: there is going to be a huge boom in the 993 00:55:06,920 --> 00:55:10,600 Speaker 1: US energy sector, and unfortunately that just means everybody's gonna 994 00:55:10,600 --> 00:55:13,560 Speaker 1: have to pay even more than they already do. Increase 995 00:55:13,800 --> 00:55:16,799 Speaker 1: food price, decrease stock price, which means they are given 996 00:55:16,840 --> 00:55:19,359 Speaker 1: in a financialization of our economy. There's gonna be less 997 00:55:19,400 --> 00:55:22,359 Speaker 1: cash slashing about. You know, interest rates could go up. 998 00:55:22,400 --> 00:55:26,640 Speaker 1: Inflation is already high. The Russia, look remember, also was 999 00:55:26,680 --> 00:55:30,000 Speaker 1: a huge player in the global financial system. Europe is 1000 00:55:30,040 --> 00:55:33,240 Speaker 1: really going to suffer. Russian oligarchs spent a huge amount 1001 00:55:33,239 --> 00:55:35,600 Speaker 1: of money in the UK. They're going to be cut off. 1002 00:55:35,640 --> 00:55:37,600 Speaker 1: I mean, I'm not saying we're in for a global 1003 00:55:37,600 --> 00:55:41,520 Speaker 1: economic depression necessarily, but we are in for some strife 1004 00:55:41,560 --> 00:55:44,560 Speaker 1: which is not going away and will continue to be 1005 00:55:44,600 --> 00:55:47,120 Speaker 1: the case for a long time. So I would say, 1006 00:55:47,160 --> 00:55:49,600 Speaker 1: if anything, that's the major takeaway for how it's probably 1007 00:55:49,600 --> 00:55:51,839 Speaker 1: gonna affect you, which is you should probably expect more 1008 00:55:51,840 --> 00:55:54,279 Speaker 1: to pay more at the pump in. Let me just 1009 00:55:54,640 --> 00:55:58,400 Speaker 1: say big picture that this is a very compelling reason 1010 00:55:58,440 --> 00:56:01,560 Speaker 1: for why we should have invest a lot in renewables 1011 00:56:01,600 --> 00:56:04,000 Speaker 1: a long time ago so that we weren't so dependent 1012 00:56:04,480 --> 00:56:08,960 Speaker 1: on these petro states. You know, there's a lot of 1013 00:56:08,960 --> 00:56:11,640 Speaker 1: ways to get to energy independence, but there's no doubt 1014 00:56:11,680 --> 00:56:13,200 Speaker 1: that this is going to be a lot of pain. 1015 00:56:13,239 --> 00:56:15,719 Speaker 1: You know what somebody tweeted this morning. I couldn't agree 1016 00:56:15,760 --> 00:56:17,399 Speaker 1: with it. More like we need to build We need 1017 00:56:17,440 --> 00:56:20,840 Speaker 1: like a new deal for nuclear power plants across this country, 1018 00:56:20,920 --> 00:56:23,000 Speaker 1: across Europe as well. We need to go full scale 1019 00:56:23,320 --> 00:56:25,200 Speaker 1: on all of this. Now is the time left too, 1020 00:56:25,200 --> 00:56:28,120 Speaker 1: Are worried about nuclear energy? Need to get over Yeah, sorry, guys, 1021 00:56:28,440 --> 00:56:31,439 Speaker 1: get over it, because you know, there's a generational thing there. 1022 00:56:31,480 --> 00:56:35,759 Speaker 1: People really have these like searing memories and experiences of 1023 00:56:35,920 --> 00:56:38,400 Speaker 1: you know, Three Mile Islands a long time ago. Okay, 1024 00:56:38,520 --> 00:56:41,279 Speaker 1: we're not the Russians. Fukushima also was a freak event 1025 00:56:41,320 --> 00:56:44,239 Speaker 1: that the Japanese screwed up the nuclear power plants of 1026 00:56:44,280 --> 00:56:47,320 Speaker 1: twenty twenty two, not even close. We need to see 1027 00:56:47,360 --> 00:56:49,759 Speaker 1: a full blown, flow blown change in the way that 1028 00:56:49,800 --> 00:56:52,920 Speaker 1: the Federal Energy Commission regulates and green lights some of 1029 00:56:52,960 --> 00:56:55,800 Speaker 1: this stuff. Some we have power plants which are waiting years. 1030 00:56:56,239 --> 00:56:59,080 Speaker 1: Now is the time, I mean, we could fractoral fine 1031 00:56:59,120 --> 00:57:01,359 Speaker 1: in the short term, it's a time to build all 1032 00:57:01,400 --> 00:57:05,399 Speaker 1: across the country, all across Europe, because you see the consequences, yeah, 1033 00:57:05,400 --> 00:57:07,560 Speaker 1: of allowing yourself now to be so reliant on that. 1034 00:57:07,560 --> 00:57:10,680 Speaker 1: That is exactly just like we talk about offshoring our 1035 00:57:10,840 --> 00:57:15,080 Speaker 1: manufacturing capacity to China, and it's serio same thing. Reasons 1036 00:57:15,120 --> 00:57:18,280 Speaker 1: why we need to be able to be independent and 1037 00:57:18,400 --> 00:57:21,160 Speaker 1: you know, have our own resources here at home. I 1038 00:57:21,200 --> 00:57:23,800 Speaker 1: want to put up some of the polling before the 1039 00:57:23,880 --> 00:57:26,560 Speaker 1: invasion to kind of lay down a marker of what 1040 00:57:26,680 --> 00:57:30,280 Speaker 1: the public was thinking about the Ukrainian crisis, and I think, 1041 00:57:30,360 --> 00:57:32,440 Speaker 1: you know, we'll watch how these numbers change. Let's go 1042 00:57:32,480 --> 00:57:35,640 Speaker 1: ahead and put this eight people up, which again this 1043 00:57:35,720 --> 00:57:40,520 Speaker 1: is before the invasion, but this just came out yesterday, 1044 00:57:40,680 --> 00:57:44,400 Speaker 1: So tensions were already very high. And at that point 1045 00:57:44,760 --> 00:57:49,080 Speaker 1: you had only twenty six percent saying that the US 1046 00:57:49,080 --> 00:57:52,120 Speaker 1: should have a major role in the conflict, fifty two 1047 00:57:52,160 --> 00:57:55,800 Speaker 1: percent said a minor role, twenty percent said none at all. 1048 00:57:56,640 --> 00:58:00,000 Speaker 1: You had a little bit of a Republican democratic divide 1049 00:58:00,160 --> 00:58:02,880 Speaker 1: where Republicans were less interested in having a major role. 1050 00:58:02,920 --> 00:58:05,400 Speaker 1: But it wasn't that large. I actually thought it might 1051 00:58:05,440 --> 00:58:07,800 Speaker 1: be more. And then the other piece that I wanted 1052 00:58:07,840 --> 00:58:10,680 Speaker 1: to and some of the quotes here were quite interesting. 1053 00:58:10,800 --> 00:58:15,080 Speaker 1: They interviewed individual responders to the poll, and some of 1054 00:58:15,160 --> 00:58:18,840 Speaker 1: them were saying, basically like, listen, why don't you focus 1055 00:58:18,880 --> 00:58:21,040 Speaker 1: on what's going on in my neighborhood. You've got one 1056 00:58:21,040 --> 00:58:22,920 Speaker 1: who said they want to send millions of dollars of 1057 00:58:22,960 --> 00:58:24,680 Speaker 1: ours to stop a war that we have nothing to 1058 00:58:24,680 --> 00:58:26,440 Speaker 1: do with them. Sorry, they're involved in a mess, but 1059 00:58:26,440 --> 00:58:28,240 Speaker 1: it's not our problem. I just feel like there's a 1060 00:58:28,280 --> 00:58:30,680 Speaker 1: war going on in the United States every day in Chicago, 1061 00:58:30,720 --> 00:58:32,360 Speaker 1: and it was really scary, and I feel like no 1062 00:58:32,400 --> 00:58:35,360 Speaker 1: one helps us. That was the orientation before the invasion. 1063 00:58:35,360 --> 00:58:37,800 Speaker 1: We'll see how it changes. I think it will change significantly. 1064 00:58:38,120 --> 00:58:40,440 Speaker 1: One other thing I wanted to highlight though, in terms 1065 00:58:40,480 --> 00:58:45,440 Speaker 1: of the numbers here, and part of why we're in 1066 00:58:45,480 --> 00:58:49,000 Speaker 1: a weak position and part of why you had so 1067 00:58:49,200 --> 00:58:52,280 Speaker 1: much skepticism among the American public about what they were 1068 00:58:52,280 --> 00:58:56,280 Speaker 1: being told by the news media is that among Americans, 1069 00:58:56,360 --> 00:58:59,000 Speaker 1: only twenty three percent, so they had a great deal 1070 00:58:59,040 --> 00:59:03,560 Speaker 1: of confidence in intelligence agencies and an equal amount twenty 1071 00:59:03,600 --> 00:59:07,840 Speaker 1: four percent said they had hardly any at all. Fifty 1072 00:59:07,920 --> 00:59:11,640 Speaker 1: two percent are sort of like, eh, maybe say they 1073 00:59:11,640 --> 00:59:17,920 Speaker 1: have some confidence, but you know, I do think again, 1074 00:59:18,080 --> 00:59:21,280 Speaker 1: we want to be totally clear this day and what 1075 00:59:21,520 --> 00:59:24,480 Speaker 1: the atrocities that are being committed are one hundred percent 1076 00:59:24,600 --> 00:59:30,000 Speaker 1: the fault of Putin and his administration in Russia. But 1077 00:59:30,640 --> 00:59:32,959 Speaker 1: it is interesting to see the way some of our 1078 00:59:33,080 --> 00:59:37,240 Speaker 1: own foreign policy misadventures have weakened us and helped to 1079 00:59:37,280 --> 00:59:39,480 Speaker 1: create the context for this moment. I mean, even in 1080 00:59:39,520 --> 00:59:44,240 Speaker 1: Putin's speech he strew WMDs in our face and said, 1081 00:59:44,360 --> 00:59:46,800 Speaker 1: you know, I mean he was he tried to pretend like, oh, 1082 00:59:46,800 --> 00:59:51,360 Speaker 1: we're worried about the Ukrainians WMDs. What that really was 1083 00:59:51,360 --> 00:59:54,080 Speaker 1: was a nit wink and a nod to Hey, you 1084 00:59:54,160 --> 00:59:57,400 Speaker 1: all invaded a rock on some BS pretenses and made 1085 00:59:57,440 --> 01:00:00,640 Speaker 1: up this whole fiction about WMDs. So hey, why can't 1086 01:00:00,640 --> 01:00:02,760 Speaker 1: we do the same? Not wrong, I mean, that's part 1087 01:00:02,760 --> 01:00:04,640 Speaker 1: of the problem, right, which is that our own foreign 1088 01:00:04,680 --> 01:00:08,320 Speaker 1: military adventurism of Iraq and in Afghanistan was a colossal 1089 01:00:08,360 --> 01:00:11,320 Speaker 1: disaster egg on our face to minish arbitu. Yeah, the 1090 01:00:11,400 --> 01:00:13,160 Speaker 1: question is why would you want to repeat the shit 1091 01:00:13,240 --> 01:00:16,439 Speaker 1: that we did? Well? Yeah, I don't really go well 1092 01:00:16,480 --> 01:00:19,160 Speaker 1: for us guys, f yi. I mean, being a sort 1093 01:00:19,200 --> 01:00:22,240 Speaker 1: of crusader country in the world has not worked out 1094 01:00:22,280 --> 01:00:26,000 Speaker 1: well for us, trying to you know, make other states 1095 01:00:26,040 --> 01:00:29,439 Speaker 1: in remake other states in our image. So if that's 1096 01:00:29,480 --> 01:00:31,840 Speaker 1: good loss goal here, yeah, good luck with that. I 1097 01:00:31,880 --> 01:00:33,840 Speaker 1: don't think that's going to go very well for you either. 1098 01:00:33,920 --> 01:00:36,280 Speaker 1: That's a good point, you know, because this is the 1099 01:00:36,320 --> 01:00:39,240 Speaker 1: bigger issue here at hand. He is I've said it 1100 01:00:39,320 --> 01:00:41,600 Speaker 1: so many times now, I know I'm repeating myself, but 1101 01:00:42,120 --> 01:00:45,560 Speaker 1: you are underestimating what it means to start a massive 1102 01:00:45,600 --> 01:00:48,800 Speaker 1: war like this. And you may have quote military success 1103 01:00:48,840 --> 01:00:51,080 Speaker 1: in the short term, but you just wait and see 1104 01:00:51,160 --> 01:00:54,320 Speaker 1: about what's coming in terms of also the Ukrainian military, 1105 01:00:54,360 --> 01:00:57,520 Speaker 1: but really the change in the global posture. I do 1106 01:00:57,600 --> 01:01:01,000 Speaker 1: not underestimate the power of the Allied. I mean that 1107 01:01:01,160 --> 01:01:03,120 Speaker 1: ruled the world for a long time for a reason. 1108 01:01:03,560 --> 01:01:06,600 Speaker 1: And you know, like I said, truly is a woken 1109 01:01:06,920 --> 01:01:09,560 Speaker 1: a sleeping giant. In my opinion. The last thing we 1110 01:01:09,600 --> 01:01:12,400 Speaker 1: wanted to talk about here is if there was anything 1111 01:01:12,440 --> 01:01:16,600 Speaker 1: that could have been done differently. And obviously, you know, 1112 01:01:16,680 --> 01:01:19,960 Speaker 1: we've laid out very clearly how the eastward expansion of 1113 01:01:20,080 --> 01:01:25,080 Speaker 1: NATO was a disaster. Was a predictable disaster. You know, 1114 01:01:25,200 --> 01:01:29,440 Speaker 1: even the trying to bring Ukraine into agreements with the EU, 1115 01:01:29,640 --> 01:01:34,200 Speaker 1: this is all predictably provoked Russia. And so it was, 1116 01:01:34,640 --> 01:01:36,800 Speaker 1: you know, we saw what they did in Georgia, we 1117 01:01:36,840 --> 01:01:40,880 Speaker 1: saw what they did in Crimea, and still we did not, 1118 01:01:41,160 --> 01:01:44,520 Speaker 1: you know, really change our posture. So that's we all 1119 01:01:44,600 --> 01:01:49,640 Speaker 1: understand that. In terms of this immediate crisis. I do 1120 01:01:49,720 --> 01:01:53,720 Speaker 1: think it's impossible to say whether war could have ultimately 1121 01:01:53,760 --> 01:01:58,560 Speaker 1: been prevented. I think Zelenski did everything he possibly can 1122 01:01:58,800 --> 01:02:01,240 Speaker 1: really commend him, yeah, he really did. I mean, he 1123 01:02:01,640 --> 01:02:05,240 Speaker 1: was trying to calm his own population. He was trying 1124 01:02:05,240 --> 01:02:11,640 Speaker 1: to be level headed, flying around doing diplomacy and even saying, hey, listen, 1125 01:02:11,680 --> 01:02:14,920 Speaker 1: if NATO's the problem, we can talk about NATO even 1126 01:02:14,960 --> 01:02:18,880 Speaker 1: be perhaps it's a dream floating, hey, we could do 1127 01:02:18,920 --> 01:02:22,080 Speaker 1: a referendum that puts NATO off the table, because it's 1128 01:02:22,080 --> 01:02:24,000 Speaker 1: written to their constitution. I think they would have to 1129 01:02:24,040 --> 01:02:26,400 Speaker 1: do something like a referendum totally put it off the table. 1130 01:02:26,680 --> 01:02:31,120 Speaker 1: Floating that, which, again, if Putin's real issue here was 1131 01:02:31,280 --> 01:02:34,160 Speaker 1: just NATO. He could have if he was looking for 1132 01:02:34,240 --> 01:02:36,920 Speaker 1: an out, he could have taken those things as a 1133 01:02:36,960 --> 01:02:39,280 Speaker 1: win back to the Russian people. As see, I stood 1134 01:02:39,360 --> 01:02:43,040 Speaker 1: up reasserted ourselves. We got these pledges, We're going to 1135 01:02:43,080 --> 01:02:46,840 Speaker 1: get them, you know, codified. I do think that, you know, 1136 01:02:46,920 --> 01:02:50,680 Speaker 1: the US should have done more in terms of also 1137 01:02:50,760 --> 01:02:54,680 Speaker 1: being willing to negotiate in the way that Zelensky was do. 1138 01:02:54,720 --> 01:02:57,560 Speaker 1: I think it ultimately would have averted this outcome, knowing 1139 01:02:57,640 --> 01:03:00,640 Speaker 1: now what we know, highly doubtful. I agree with you. 1140 01:03:01,160 --> 01:03:02,760 Speaker 1: I was thinking about it, and I was like, you know, 1141 01:03:02,800 --> 01:03:04,720 Speaker 1: I know, I said this repeatedly. I said, we should 1142 01:03:04,760 --> 01:03:06,919 Speaker 1: give them what they want in rhetorics, so we could 1143 01:03:06,920 --> 01:03:09,280 Speaker 1: make it clear that if they do invade, that it's 1144 01:03:09,280 --> 01:03:12,320 Speaker 1: clearly about something else. Yes, that being said, we clarify 1145 01:03:12,440 --> 01:03:14,400 Speaker 1: the dynamic now and make it tougher for China to 1146 01:03:14,440 --> 01:03:16,200 Speaker 1: be taken the position lead make it a lot tougher 1147 01:03:16,200 --> 01:03:18,040 Speaker 1: for China and for the others in order to take 1148 01:03:18,040 --> 01:03:20,840 Speaker 1: the position that they're taking. At the same time, everybody 1149 01:03:20,920 --> 01:03:22,439 Speaker 1: knew Ukraine was not going to be part of NATO. 1150 01:03:22,480 --> 01:03:24,200 Speaker 1: I mean, at this point, there's just no way that 1151 01:03:24,280 --> 01:03:26,840 Speaker 1: anybody in the West was actually going to make that happen, 1152 01:03:27,000 --> 01:03:29,760 Speaker 1: even the Biden administration, you know, tacitly saying this. So 1153 01:03:29,840 --> 01:03:31,400 Speaker 1: I don't want to say that it was like a 1154 01:03:31,480 --> 01:03:34,120 Speaker 1: for god conclusion that they were and they weren't. Although 1155 01:03:34,120 --> 01:03:35,760 Speaker 1: we did invite them in two thousand and eight, and 1156 01:03:35,760 --> 01:03:38,840 Speaker 1: that was a gigantic mistake which we made. Can't raly 1157 01:03:38,920 --> 01:03:41,800 Speaker 1: sparked the escalatory pattern that leads us to this moment. 1158 01:03:41,880 --> 01:03:46,320 Speaker 1: What I would say is this, paranoid Russians leaders is 1159 01:03:46,360 --> 01:03:49,880 Speaker 1: a constant throughout history. We know this. What we don't 1160 01:03:49,920 --> 01:03:53,560 Speaker 1: know is that what does the alternative history look like 1161 01:03:54,040 --> 01:03:59,280 Speaker 1: in which we don't amplify the legitimate fears that can 1162 01:03:59,320 --> 01:04:03,000 Speaker 1: be paired then with paranoid delusions and craziness that spark 1163 01:04:03,000 --> 01:04:06,120 Speaker 1: an invasion. We will not know the answer to that question. 1164 01:04:06,360 --> 01:04:09,000 Speaker 1: You know. George Kennon, he was asked in nineteen ninety 1165 01:04:09,000 --> 01:04:11,000 Speaker 1: eight about NATO expansion. Here's what he said. I'm gonnad 1166 01:04:11,040 --> 01:04:13,440 Speaker 1: his full quote. George Kennan, For those who don't know, 1167 01:04:13,480 --> 01:04:15,760 Speaker 1: he was the architect of the containment strategy, the foremost 1168 01:04:15,840 --> 01:04:18,240 Speaker 1: US Russia expert, and really I think one of the 1169 01:04:18,280 --> 01:04:19,920 Speaker 1: most brilliant minds to ever live in the history of 1170 01:04:19,920 --> 01:04:22,360 Speaker 1: American foreign policy. Here's what we said. I think it 1171 01:04:22,400 --> 01:04:23,880 Speaker 1: is the beginning of the new Cold War. I think 1172 01:04:23,880 --> 01:04:26,400 Speaker 1: the Russians will gradually react quite adversely, and it will 1173 01:04:26,440 --> 01:04:28,880 Speaker 1: affect their policies. I think it is a tragic mistake. 1174 01:04:29,080 --> 01:04:31,280 Speaker 1: There was no reason for this whatsoever. No one was 1175 01:04:31,320 --> 01:04:34,360 Speaker 1: threatening anybody else. This expansion would make the founding fathers 1176 01:04:34,400 --> 01:04:36,880 Speaker 1: of this country turnover in their graves. We have signed 1177 01:04:36,960 --> 01:04:38,960 Speaker 1: up to protect a whole series of countries, even though 1178 01:04:38,960 --> 01:04:41,000 Speaker 1: we have neither the resources nor the intention to do 1179 01:04:41,080 --> 01:04:44,440 Speaker 1: so in any serious way. NATO expansion was simply a 1180 01:04:44,520 --> 01:04:47,000 Speaker 1: lighthearted action by a Senate that has no interest in 1181 01:04:47,000 --> 01:04:49,640 Speaker 1: foreign affairs. What bothers me is how superficial and ill 1182 01:04:49,680 --> 01:04:52,560 Speaker 1: informed the whole Senate debate was. I was particularly bothered 1183 01:04:52,600 --> 01:04:55,120 Speaker 1: by references to Russia as a country dying to attack 1184 01:04:55,160 --> 01:04:58,960 Speaker 1: Western Europe. Don't people understand our differences in the Cold 1185 01:04:59,040 --> 01:05:01,640 Speaker 1: War were with the Soviet communist regime. We are now 1186 01:05:01,680 --> 01:05:03,880 Speaker 1: turning our backs on the very people who mounted the 1187 01:05:03,880 --> 01:05:07,400 Speaker 1: greatest bloodless revolution in history to remove the Soviet regime. 1188 01:05:07,640 --> 01:05:10,560 Speaker 1: Russia's democracy is a far advanced, if not farther as 1189 01:05:10,600 --> 01:05:12,640 Speaker 1: any of these countries that we've just signed up to 1190 01:05:12,680 --> 01:05:14,960 Speaker 1: defend from Russia. Of course there is going to be 1191 01:05:14,960 --> 01:05:17,720 Speaker 1: a bad reaction from Russia. And then the NATO's or 1192 01:05:17,760 --> 01:05:20,240 Speaker 1: expanders will say, what we always told you, that this 1193 01:05:20,320 --> 01:05:22,680 Speaker 1: is how the Russians are, but this is just wrong, 1194 01:05:23,000 --> 01:05:26,520 Speaker 1: very prescient words written by George Kennan in nineteen ninety eight. 1195 01:05:26,960 --> 01:05:30,080 Speaker 1: Are we responsible for this? No, absolutely not. We did 1196 01:05:30,120 --> 01:05:33,880 Speaker 1: not invade Russia. Did we create the conditions that allowed 1197 01:05:33,880 --> 01:05:37,240 Speaker 1: of Vladimir Putin, who had the ideology to re expand 1198 01:05:37,280 --> 01:05:40,320 Speaker 1: the Russian Empire, to then have a domestic agenda and 1199 01:05:40,440 --> 01:05:42,919 Speaker 1: have enough of a good point in order to sell 1200 01:05:42,960 --> 01:05:44,880 Speaker 1: it to the public. Yeah, I think we played a 1201 01:05:44,960 --> 01:05:46,440 Speaker 1: role in that, and we are going to pay the 1202 01:05:46,480 --> 01:05:49,880 Speaker 1: consequences now that for many years to come. It's something 1203 01:05:49,920 --> 01:05:53,080 Speaker 1: I've read a lot about the Munich obviously, and one 1204 01:05:53,080 --> 01:05:55,160 Speaker 1: of the interesting things that was happening about the Munich 1205 01:05:55,160 --> 01:05:58,120 Speaker 1: debate at the time is the immense difficulty that the 1206 01:05:58,160 --> 01:06:02,440 Speaker 1: West had in separating the legitimate point that Germany had 1207 01:06:02,680 --> 01:06:05,680 Speaker 1: whenever it came to the horrific treatment of Germany under 1208 01:06:05,680 --> 01:06:09,880 Speaker 1: the Treaty of Versailles, and then the actual expansion madness 1209 01:06:10,080 --> 01:06:14,040 Speaker 1: of the Nazi regime, and separating that is really hard. 1210 01:06:14,280 --> 01:06:16,840 Speaker 1: That's part of the reason why the Munich Agreement came 1211 01:06:16,840 --> 01:06:19,240 Speaker 1: in the first place, because the domestic populations of the 1212 01:06:19,280 --> 01:06:21,320 Speaker 1: West said, you know what, It's true, we kind of 1213 01:06:21,320 --> 01:06:23,919 Speaker 1: screwed them. I get where they're coming from. We took 1214 01:06:23,920 --> 01:06:26,160 Speaker 1: away their arms, we took away their ability to have 1215 01:06:26,200 --> 01:06:29,960 Speaker 1: a proud nation. We plunged them into depression. We make 1216 01:06:30,000 --> 01:06:32,320 Speaker 1: them pay us once a month. I get why this 1217 01:06:32,400 --> 01:06:36,080 Speaker 1: could happen. They did everything they could to avert war 1218 01:06:36,440 --> 01:06:38,960 Speaker 1: at the time. I wish we had seen more of 1219 01:06:39,000 --> 01:06:41,680 Speaker 1: that action from the Biden administration in the future, but 1220 01:06:41,800 --> 01:06:45,240 Speaker 1: it is not Biden's fault. Potent has invaded this country 1221 01:06:45,320 --> 01:06:48,040 Speaker 1: and many of the consequences are now going to be 1222 01:06:48,120 --> 01:06:51,880 Speaker 1: on him. I still will advocate as long as we can, 1223 01:06:52,760 --> 01:06:58,120 Speaker 1: hopefully forever, against any sort of sparked crisis, tension, war, etc. 1224 01:06:58,360 --> 01:07:00,640 Speaker 1: Because I do not want to see Americans die in 1225 01:07:00,680 --> 01:07:04,320 Speaker 1: the East for no good reason. But you know, I 1226 01:07:04,360 --> 01:07:06,800 Speaker 1: read these words of Kennon. I think that the hubris 1227 01:07:06,840 --> 01:07:09,120 Speaker 1: of America's foreign policy comes back to bite us, but 1228 01:07:09,240 --> 01:07:13,080 Speaker 1: also the paranoid delusions of the Russian state who very 1229 01:07:13,160 --> 01:07:16,640 Speaker 1: much overestimate their abilities in order to weather this crisis. 1230 01:07:16,640 --> 01:07:18,920 Speaker 1: And actually that's what scares me most, which is that 1231 01:07:18,960 --> 01:07:21,640 Speaker 1: when the consequences become really clear for the Russians and 1232 01:07:21,720 --> 01:07:24,440 Speaker 1: for Putin and in this current mindset, what's the next 1233 01:07:24,440 --> 01:07:27,280 Speaker 1: step look like, that's that's the big question. Yeah, and 1234 01:07:27,320 --> 01:07:32,919 Speaker 1: then what Because I think the other reason why we 1235 01:07:32,960 --> 01:07:38,200 Speaker 1: struggle sometimes to understand the actions of other leaders is 1236 01:07:38,240 --> 01:07:42,520 Speaker 1: because our country is so driven just by money and 1237 01:07:43,000 --> 01:07:48,160 Speaker 1: profit margins and the economy. And clearly there are a 1238 01:07:48,200 --> 01:07:51,440 Speaker 1: lot of other calculations that went into this from the 1239 01:07:51,520 --> 01:07:55,160 Speaker 1: Russian perspective, and you know, we were arrogant and we 1240 01:07:55,160 --> 01:07:59,800 Speaker 1: were hubristic, and we effectively humiliated them over these many years. 1241 01:08:00,040 --> 01:08:02,600 Speaker 1: And so again I always want to be clear, like 1242 01:08:02,760 --> 01:08:05,880 Speaker 1: this is his fault and the death and the destruction 1243 01:08:06,040 --> 01:08:09,080 Speaker 1: and the damage to his own people, to the Ukrainian people, 1244 01:08:09,160 --> 01:08:13,360 Speaker 1: to the world economy. You know that falls at his doorstep. 1245 01:08:13,480 --> 01:08:17,439 Speaker 1: But there was another path that could have led in 1246 01:08:17,600 --> 01:08:20,479 Speaker 1: a very different direction, that could have led Russia to 1247 01:08:20,520 --> 01:08:23,680 Speaker 1: a lie with us. As you know, we need their 1248 01:08:23,720 --> 01:08:27,040 Speaker 1: cooperation and a number of things, including climate change if 1249 01:08:27,080 --> 01:08:29,280 Speaker 1: that's something that you care about, and including serving as 1250 01:08:29,280 --> 01:08:31,719 Speaker 1: a bulwark against China, if that's something you care about. 1251 01:08:32,160 --> 01:08:35,920 Speaker 1: And now we have a very different world order that 1252 01:08:36,000 --> 01:08:38,960 Speaker 1: we're facing down that is. Yeah, there's going to be 1253 01:08:39,000 --> 01:08:40,880 Speaker 1: a lot of pain for the Russians, but this is 1254 01:08:40,920 --> 01:08:46,360 Speaker 1: extraordinarily bad. All right, Sager, what are you looking at? Well, 1255 01:08:46,680 --> 01:08:49,320 Speaker 1: I've done two historical monologues so far, looking back at 1256 01:08:49,360 --> 01:08:51,720 Speaker 1: parallels to tell us how we got here. First was 1257 01:08:51,760 --> 01:08:54,240 Speaker 1: a view into the creation expansion of NATO, how that 1258 01:08:54,280 --> 01:08:56,759 Speaker 1: expansion played into the war spheres of a defeated Russia 1259 01:08:56,800 --> 01:08:59,599 Speaker 1: after the Cold War, and how the hubris of US 1260 01:08:59,640 --> 01:09:03,200 Speaker 1: foreign policy elites itself is responsible partially for the rise 1261 01:09:03,200 --> 01:09:06,560 Speaker 1: in paranoid worldview of Vladimir Putin. Second was about the 1262 01:09:06,640 --> 01:09:09,479 Speaker 1: Munich crisis of nineteen thirty eight, how the comparisons of 1263 01:09:09,560 --> 01:09:12,360 Speaker 1: Russian invasion of Ukraine are not comparable in any way 1264 01:09:12,360 --> 01:09:16,000 Speaker 1: to Hitler's demand of the sudatean land, how Munich analogies 1265 01:09:16,040 --> 01:09:18,840 Speaker 1: themselves tie the brain up away from thinking in more 1266 01:09:18,840 --> 01:09:22,160 Speaker 1: important possibilities, and how the real lesson is that Munich 1267 01:09:22,200 --> 01:09:24,960 Speaker 1: happened in the first place because a warwary public in 1268 01:09:25,000 --> 01:09:27,479 Speaker 1: the West did not trust its foreign policy elite to 1269 01:09:27,520 --> 01:09:30,639 Speaker 1: keep them out of war, just like we are today today. 1270 01:09:30,920 --> 01:09:32,880 Speaker 1: All of those available are going to be in the description. 1271 01:09:33,240 --> 01:09:34,920 Speaker 1: But it is fair to say that those monologues were 1272 01:09:34,960 --> 01:09:37,519 Speaker 1: meant to push back against hubris of the West. So 1273 01:09:37,560 --> 01:09:40,280 Speaker 1: today I'd like to turn the tables and look across 1274 01:09:40,280 --> 01:09:43,280 Speaker 1: the Atlantic to the hubris of Vladimir Putin. To the 1275 01:09:43,320 --> 01:09:45,479 Speaker 1: Putin speech, which we broke down in our last show 1276 01:09:45,720 --> 01:09:49,000 Speaker 1: was fascinating. It was an our long diatribe, part history, lesson, 1277 01:09:49,000 --> 01:09:52,880 Speaker 1: part aggression, part grievance, justifying sending troops into Ukraine now 1278 01:09:52,880 --> 01:09:55,519 Speaker 1: for a full scale invasion. But what revealed within it 1279 01:09:55,600 --> 01:09:58,400 Speaker 1: is a mindset which is both a historical and downright 1280 01:09:58,520 --> 01:10:01,920 Speaker 1: nineteenth century that many people are not appreciating. I've said 1281 01:10:01,920 --> 01:10:03,720 Speaker 1: in the past on this show, Putin is trying to 1282 01:10:03,760 --> 01:10:07,360 Speaker 1: recreate the former Soviet Empire. He said its fall was 1283 01:10:07,400 --> 01:10:10,679 Speaker 1: a great tragedy. But the speech actually reveals a deeper 1284 01:10:10,720 --> 01:10:13,240 Speaker 1: element to this thinking, which shows I was completely wrong. 1285 01:10:13,960 --> 01:10:16,760 Speaker 1: Putin is not trying to recreate the Soviet Empire. It's 1286 01:10:16,840 --> 01:10:20,200 Speaker 1: much worse. He wants to create recreate the Russian Empire. 1287 01:10:20,840 --> 01:10:24,080 Speaker 1: The official translating of translation of Putin's speech by the 1288 01:10:24,200 --> 01:10:27,519 Speaker 1: Kremlin was him saying that Lenin himself was a fool 1289 01:10:27,560 --> 01:10:31,360 Speaker 1: for breaking up former parts of the Russian Empire like Latvia, Lithuania, 1290 01:10:31,479 --> 01:10:35,280 Speaker 1: Estonia and Ukraine. In the Treaty of Breslatovsk of nineteen seventeen, 1291 01:10:35,560 --> 01:10:38,880 Speaker 1: per Putin, it was quote crazy to appease the ethnic 1292 01:10:38,920 --> 01:10:42,320 Speaker 1: subgroups of the Baltic states as well as Ukraine. And moreover, 1293 01:10:42,640 --> 01:10:46,080 Speaker 1: why was it necessary, per Putin quote to make such 1294 01:10:46,200 --> 01:10:49,559 Speaker 1: generous gifts beyond the wildest dreams of the most zealous 1295 01:10:49,640 --> 01:10:52,479 Speaker 1: nationalists and give the republics the right to secede from 1296 01:10:52,520 --> 01:10:55,960 Speaker 1: the state without any conditions. That's a direct quote. In 1297 01:10:56,000 --> 01:10:59,000 Speaker 1: other words, what Putin is saying is that many countries 1298 01:10:59,040 --> 01:11:02,280 Speaker 1: which are now in Native today like Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia 1299 01:11:02,360 --> 01:11:04,400 Speaker 1: and of course Ukraine, which is not in NATO, but 1300 01:11:04,479 --> 01:11:09,280 Speaker 1: are still all illegitimate entities. The Treaty of Breslatovsk itself 1301 01:11:09,439 --> 01:11:12,479 Speaker 1: is actually fascinating. It was a capitulation by Lenin and 1302 01:11:12,520 --> 01:11:15,800 Speaker 1: Trotsky in nineteen seventeen to the German Kaiser, where they 1303 01:11:15,840 --> 01:11:18,800 Speaker 1: ceded territory to the German Empire in exchange for a 1304 01:11:18,840 --> 01:11:22,280 Speaker 1: piece of the Eastern Front. Now, this allowed Lenin and 1305 01:11:22,320 --> 01:11:25,200 Speaker 1: Trotsky to stop having to fight the war and instead 1306 01:11:25,240 --> 01:11:27,720 Speaker 1: focus on winning the civil war that was raging in 1307 01:11:27,800 --> 01:11:30,920 Speaker 1: Russia at the time. The treaty itself was nullified after 1308 01:11:30,920 --> 01:11:33,400 Speaker 1: the Germans lost the war in nineteen eighteen, but they 1309 01:11:33,439 --> 01:11:37,360 Speaker 1: created the independent entities of those countries which exist today. 1310 01:11:37,640 --> 01:11:41,160 Speaker 1: In large part this matters because even after the Soviet 1311 01:11:41,280 --> 01:11:44,040 Speaker 1: Union took over those countries again in nineteen forty five, 1312 01:11:44,360 --> 01:11:48,200 Speaker 1: those states were admitted as independent states in the USSR 1313 01:11:48,640 --> 01:11:52,400 Speaker 1: rather than absorbed as part of the full Soviet Empire. Thus, 1314 01:11:52,520 --> 01:11:55,960 Speaker 1: when the Soviet Union fell apart, those states regained independence 1315 01:11:56,120 --> 01:11:58,400 Speaker 1: and they are known as they are today. Some of 1316 01:11:58,439 --> 01:12:01,000 Speaker 1: them are in the NATO Alliance and thus entitled to 1317 01:12:01,040 --> 01:12:03,960 Speaker 1: the Collective Defense Agreement of the West. Now why does 1318 01:12:04,000 --> 01:12:06,879 Speaker 1: any of this matter to the Ukraine crisis. It matters 1319 01:12:07,040 --> 01:12:10,200 Speaker 1: because this entire crisis. Putin has said, this is about 1320 01:12:10,280 --> 01:12:13,000 Speaker 1: Ukraine and NATO. I and many others would even agree 1321 01:12:13,000 --> 01:12:16,200 Speaker 1: that admitting Ukraine into NATO and that NATO expansion eastward 1322 01:12:16,560 --> 01:12:20,879 Speaker 1: was legitimately antagonizing to Russia's security interests and historical influence 1323 01:12:20,920 --> 01:12:24,599 Speaker 1: in the region. But in that speech and the current events, 1324 01:12:24,840 --> 01:12:27,519 Speaker 1: the grand design that Putin is showing is not a 1325 01:12:27,560 --> 01:12:31,080 Speaker 1: restoration of Russia's legitimate security interests and not having the 1326 01:12:31,160 --> 01:12:33,760 Speaker 1: US nuclear umbrella so close to its border. No, no, no no, no. 1327 01:12:34,560 --> 01:12:36,880 Speaker 1: He believes these countries have no right to exist in 1328 01:12:36,880 --> 01:12:39,519 Speaker 1: the first place. In fact, the Putin speech in the 1329 01:12:39,520 --> 01:12:45,160 Speaker 1: current invasion is remarkable because explicitly excoriates the previous creator 1330 01:12:45,160 --> 01:12:48,720 Speaker 1: of the Soviet regime, Vladimir Lenin his history. Lessened as 1331 01:12:48,720 --> 01:12:52,400 Speaker 1: to the illegitimacy of these countries was given before delving 1332 01:12:52,600 --> 01:12:55,919 Speaker 1: into any specific area on NATO, on Ukraine and grievance 1333 01:12:55,920 --> 01:12:58,280 Speaker 1: with the West. That's why I'm spending so much time 1334 01:12:58,320 --> 01:13:00,599 Speaker 1: on it. Part of the problem we have right now 1335 01:13:00,840 --> 01:13:03,840 Speaker 1: is clear is that both sides were kind of muddying 1336 01:13:03,920 --> 01:13:06,320 Speaker 1: the waters and lying. The United States and the West 1337 01:13:06,360 --> 01:13:08,640 Speaker 1: and NATO were saying, well, we stand in Ukraine, but 1338 01:13:08,680 --> 01:13:10,559 Speaker 1: at the end of the day, we all will privately 1339 01:13:10,560 --> 01:13:12,680 Speaker 1: admit Ukraine will never be a part of NATO. So 1340 01:13:12,720 --> 01:13:14,639 Speaker 1: why didn't we just say it? If Putin was telling 1341 01:13:14,720 --> 01:13:16,360 Speaker 1: the truth, and if the Russians were standing by the 1342 01:13:16,439 --> 01:13:19,200 Speaker 1: legitimate grievance, then they wouldn't do anything. And if they 1343 01:13:19,200 --> 01:13:21,919 Speaker 1: invade as they did now, then we would say, obviously, 1344 01:13:21,920 --> 01:13:24,639 Speaker 1: it's about something else. That latter part is the issue too. 1345 01:13:24,920 --> 01:13:28,160 Speaker 1: It's clear from the speech and now the current actions 1346 01:13:28,320 --> 01:13:31,160 Speaker 1: that what is central to Putin's pitch to the Russian people, 1347 01:13:31,520 --> 01:13:33,439 Speaker 1: and that he would not have started out this way 1348 01:13:33,640 --> 01:13:36,519 Speaker 1: if he did not actually want to restore the former 1349 01:13:36,800 --> 01:13:40,000 Speaker 1: Russian Empire and his annex as much as he can 1350 01:13:40,240 --> 01:13:42,800 Speaker 1: over total control of his domain. And he has never 1351 01:13:42,840 --> 01:13:45,559 Speaker 1: said so, but he is telling us now with his actions, 1352 01:13:45,800 --> 01:13:48,080 Speaker 1: and that is the clear and present danger to where 1353 01:13:48,080 --> 01:13:50,800 Speaker 1: we are right now. I would remind Putin to look 1354 01:13:50,920 --> 01:13:53,880 Speaker 1: as somebody who cares a lot about history, the Russo 1355 01:13:53,960 --> 01:13:56,960 Speaker 1: Japanese War of nineteen oh four, the Great War of 1356 01:13:57,040 --> 01:14:01,559 Speaker 1: nineteen fourteen, the Afghanistan invasion of nineteen seventy nine, the 1357 01:14:01,600 --> 01:14:05,280 Speaker 1: Finland invasion of nineteen thirty nine. Many Russian leaders before 1358 01:14:05,360 --> 01:14:08,000 Speaker 1: him have used the hubrist that they had in order 1359 01:14:08,040 --> 01:14:11,920 Speaker 1: to invade foreign countries, and in that hubris they found destruction. 1360 01:14:12,240 --> 01:14:15,800 Speaker 1: The Russo Japanese War destroyed the Russian economy and set 1361 01:14:15,800 --> 01:14:18,120 Speaker 1: the stage for the destruction of the Tsar. The Great 1362 01:14:18,160 --> 01:14:21,719 Speaker 1: War obviously ended up in the Bolshevik Revolution Finland nineteen 1363 01:14:21,760 --> 01:14:25,439 Speaker 1: thirty nine. The Russians lost a thousands of troops in 1364 01:14:25,520 --> 01:14:28,800 Speaker 1: something that was needless and was an obviously arrogant act. 1365 01:14:29,000 --> 01:14:33,200 Speaker 1: Afghanistan nineteen seventy nine spelled the fall of the Soviet Union. 1366 01:14:33,360 --> 01:14:35,920 Speaker 1: And for a guy who loves history, Putin should remember 1367 01:14:36,040 --> 01:14:38,519 Speaker 1: that Russian leaders of the last two centuries who lost 1368 01:14:38,520 --> 01:14:42,280 Speaker 1: these launch these foreign adventures, it ends up in the 1369 01:14:42,320 --> 01:14:46,120 Speaker 1: destruction of their regime. That's the key lesson to me, Crystal, 1370 01:14:46,280 --> 01:14:48,519 Speaker 1: if you look back at the history, and if you 1371 01:14:48,560 --> 01:14:51,400 Speaker 1: want to hear my reaction to Sagre's monologue, become a 1372 01:14:51,439 --> 01:14:57,280 Speaker 1: premium subscriber today at Breakingpoints dot com. Cristal, what are 1373 01:14:57,280 --> 01:14:58,640 Speaker 1: you taking a look at? Well, guys, I'm looking at 1374 01:14:58,680 --> 01:15:03,439 Speaker 1: some of the domestic contexts here, the backdrop of which 1375 01:15:03,520 --> 01:15:06,400 Speaker 1: all of this conflict overseas is playing out, and it's 1376 01:15:06,439 --> 01:15:10,400 Speaker 1: obviously become an obvious truism. The pandemic revealed the incredibly 1377 01:15:10,400 --> 01:15:13,559 Speaker 1: divided realities for different sets of workers here at home. 1378 01:15:13,880 --> 01:15:16,600 Speaker 1: White collar, professional managerial class types were sent home to 1379 01:15:16,640 --> 01:15:19,799 Speaker 1: work safe in their comfortable abodes. Billionaires boarded their yachts 1380 01:15:19,840 --> 01:15:22,400 Speaker 1: or fled to their private islands, while the working class 1381 01:15:22,439 --> 01:15:25,320 Speaker 1: was either fired and financially screwed or deemed essential, given 1382 01:15:25,320 --> 01:15:26,720 Speaker 1: a little pad on the head, and forced to get 1383 01:15:26,720 --> 01:15:29,280 Speaker 1: it back out there for the same low wages, only 1384 01:15:29,320 --> 01:15:31,840 Speaker 1: now with the added benefit of risking their lives in 1385 01:15:31,920 --> 01:15:34,280 Speaker 1: order to keep society rolling and serve the whims of 1386 01:15:34,360 --> 01:15:38,760 Speaker 1: the affluent. But the pandemic also put every existing divide 1387 01:15:38,960 --> 01:15:42,200 Speaker 1: already here in our society on an accelerator. This can 1388 01:15:42,240 --> 01:15:44,759 Speaker 1: be seen most clearly, of course, among our billionaire class. 1389 01:15:45,160 --> 01:15:49,080 Speaker 1: The ranks of the billionaire class expanded greatly during the pandemic, 1390 01:15:49,160 --> 01:15:53,719 Speaker 1: minting five hundred new members worldwide thanks to disaster capitalism. Overall, 1391 01:15:53,760 --> 01:15:57,799 Speaker 1: billionaire wealth surged seventy percent, adding two point one trillion 1392 01:15:57,840 --> 01:16:00,360 Speaker 1: dollars in wealth just here in the US, and that 1393 01:16:00,479 --> 01:16:03,800 Speaker 1: added wealth alone is enough to cover sixty percent of 1394 01:16:03,880 --> 01:16:07,600 Speaker 1: build back better for the entire decade. But with the 1395 01:16:07,640 --> 01:16:10,280 Speaker 1: pandemic receiding, we're getting an idea of the way these 1396 01:16:10,320 --> 01:16:14,000 Speaker 1: news gulfs in wealth, dignity, and lifestyle could be solidified 1397 01:16:14,000 --> 01:16:16,640 Speaker 1: and even expanded. Front of the show, Derek Thompson is 1398 01:16:16,680 --> 01:16:18,720 Speaker 1: out with a fascinating look at the data behind the 1399 01:16:18,760 --> 01:16:22,599 Speaker 1: move to making remote work and hybrid work permanent. Derek 1400 01:16:22,640 --> 01:16:26,719 Speaker 1: writes that stadiums are packed travelers back restaurant reservations are surging, 1401 01:16:26,960 --> 01:16:31,200 Speaker 1: but office occupancy is moribund. Even movie theaters, business sometimes 1402 01:16:31,200 --> 01:16:34,720 Speaker 1: written off as quote doomed, have recovered almost twice as 1403 01:16:34,800 --> 01:16:38,519 Speaker 1: much as offices. Other articles have painted a similar portrait, 1404 01:16:38,520 --> 01:16:40,479 Speaker 1: writing about the way that shifts and work patterns have 1405 01:16:40,600 --> 01:16:44,640 Speaker 1: decimated downtown small businesses reliant on office workers as customers 1406 01:16:44,880 --> 01:16:47,080 Speaker 1: now look. I am fully supportive of this shift to 1407 01:16:47,120 --> 01:16:48,880 Speaker 1: remote and hybrid work. I think it's great that the 1408 01:16:48,880 --> 01:16:51,080 Speaker 1: pandemic allowed white collar workers to have more time with 1409 01:16:51,120 --> 01:16:53,880 Speaker 1: their families, rebalanced their lives, reclaim more leisure time and 1410 01:16:53,920 --> 01:16:57,760 Speaker 1: an identity away from the office. But we should not 1411 01:16:57,880 --> 01:17:00,840 Speaker 1: miss that these same gains have not been realized for 1412 01:17:00,920 --> 01:17:04,439 Speaker 1: the broad working class. After all, the real divide in 1413 01:17:04,479 --> 01:17:06,960 Speaker 1: this country is between those people who are treated as 1414 01:17:07,000 --> 01:17:09,759 Speaker 1: full human beings and those who are treated as cogs 1415 01:17:09,800 --> 01:17:12,240 Speaker 1: to be plugged into the capitalist machinery and discarded when 1416 01:17:12,240 --> 01:17:15,280 Speaker 1: they become inconvenient or dare to demand some dignity. And 1417 01:17:15,360 --> 01:17:17,640 Speaker 1: so when the full humanity of the professional class is 1418 01:17:17,720 --> 01:17:21,439 Speaker 1: more fully realized, it only makes the inhumane treatment of 1419 01:17:21,479 --> 01:17:25,479 Speaker 1: the working class more glaring and ultimately more intolerable. Derek 1420 01:17:25,479 --> 01:17:27,680 Speaker 1: predicts another impact of remote work, which will be a 1421 01:17:27,720 --> 01:17:30,200 Speaker 1: wonderful lifestyle improvement for the class that benefits from it. 1422 01:17:30,400 --> 01:17:32,800 Speaker 1: The end of the five day work week. Already, many 1423 01:17:32,840 --> 01:17:35,000 Speaker 1: professionals with the cash and the flexibility to do it, 1424 01:17:35,040 --> 01:17:38,280 Speaker 1: treat regular weekends like their holidays, planning getaways and fulfilling 1425 01:17:38,280 --> 01:17:41,880 Speaker 1: their work responsibilities from airbnbs and lovely locales. And while 1426 01:17:41,920 --> 01:17:44,559 Speaker 1: Derek argues this four day workweek might trickle down to 1427 01:17:44,600 --> 01:17:48,960 Speaker 1: other classes of workers, personally, I sincerely doubt it. After all, 1428 01:17:49,200 --> 01:17:52,639 Speaker 1: one glaring difference between office workers and even lower paid 1429 01:17:52,720 --> 01:17:56,200 Speaker 1: college educated professionals is that the latter have to actually 1430 01:17:56,240 --> 01:17:59,439 Speaker 1: be in a physical place. You can do your BS 1431 01:17:59,439 --> 01:18:03,000 Speaker 1: consulting job or your legal work from basically anywhere. Nurses, though, 1432 01:18:03,040 --> 01:18:05,200 Speaker 1: have to actually be in the hospital, teachers have to 1433 01:18:05,280 --> 01:18:07,760 Speaker 1: actually be at the school, and of course servers, uber 1434 01:18:07,840 --> 01:18:10,240 Speaker 1: drivers and warehouse workers have to actually be in their 1435 01:18:10,280 --> 01:18:14,320 Speaker 1: designated spots. To cater to this affluent professional class, Custodians 1436 01:18:14,520 --> 01:18:16,479 Speaker 1: still have to be at the office building they're tasked 1437 01:18:16,479 --> 01:18:19,280 Speaker 1: with cleaning, even if the Cuba goals they're vacuuming are 1438 01:18:19,320 --> 01:18:23,920 Speaker 1: now vacant, and their bosses they don't care whatsoever about 1439 01:18:23,920 --> 01:18:26,680 Speaker 1: what these workers' personal preferences are. But it's not just 1440 01:18:26,720 --> 01:18:29,280 Speaker 1: the indignity of watching new horizons open up for the 1441 01:18:29,320 --> 01:18:32,680 Speaker 1: affluent while yourself you're remaining stuck. It's not even just 1442 01:18:32,720 --> 01:18:35,240 Speaker 1: the continued cultural division of the country. Is one class 1443 01:18:35,280 --> 01:18:38,040 Speaker 1: avails itself with new travel and leisure opportunities, while the 1444 01:18:38,040 --> 01:18:40,040 Speaker 1: rest keep going to the same jobs in the same way, 1445 01:18:40,320 --> 01:18:42,120 Speaker 1: only with a little more pre carity and a little 1446 01:18:42,160 --> 01:18:44,720 Speaker 1: more surveillance and a little less dignity, day by day 1447 01:18:44,760 --> 01:18:47,679 Speaker 1: by day. That's to say nothing of the paychecks, which 1448 01:18:47,680 --> 01:18:50,280 Speaker 1: are further and further stretched by wages that don't keep 1449 01:18:50,360 --> 01:18:52,519 Speaker 1: up with inflation. We're only going to see more of 1450 01:18:52,560 --> 01:18:56,240 Speaker 1: that because another lifestyle change open to PMC remote workers 1451 01:18:56,280 --> 01:18:59,440 Speaker 1: is putting pressure on a lot of working class people directly. 1452 01:19:00,080 --> 01:19:02,120 Speaker 1: They are more or less untethered from the office. The 1453 01:19:02,120 --> 01:19:05,160 Speaker 1: PMC can move wherever they want, bringing the high housing 1454 01:19:05,240 --> 01:19:08,800 Speaker 1: prices of the cities they fled along with them. This 1455 01:19:09,080 --> 01:19:12,840 Speaker 1: is already happening, causing pain and friction and despair, sort 1456 01:19:12,880 --> 01:19:15,800 Speaker 1: of nationwide gentrification that is forcing people to abandon the 1457 01:19:15,840 --> 01:19:19,599 Speaker 1: dream of home ownership or flee their hometowns altogether. Such 1458 01:19:19,680 --> 01:19:22,760 Speaker 1: is the case in Spokane, Washington. The once sleepy town 1459 01:19:22,800 --> 01:19:25,280 Speaker 1: had dreamed of being a destination for new residents with 1460 01:19:25,320 --> 01:19:28,920 Speaker 1: a lot of disposable income. Now many longtime residents are 1461 01:19:28,960 --> 01:19:32,280 Speaker 1: putting don't move here bumper stickers onto their cars. In 1462 01:19:32,320 --> 01:19:35,600 Speaker 1: the past two years alone, housing prices in Spokane have 1463 01:19:35,720 --> 01:19:39,559 Speaker 1: jumped sixty percent. According to The Times, the median income 1464 01:19:39,600 --> 01:19:41,920 Speaker 1: there was sufficient to afford two thirds of the houses 1465 01:19:41,960 --> 01:19:44,960 Speaker 1: on the market just a few years ago. Now the 1466 01:19:45,000 --> 01:19:47,919 Speaker 1: mayor of the town's own adult son and new wife 1467 01:19:48,000 --> 01:19:51,360 Speaker 1: are stuck living in mom's basement, unsure if they can 1468 01:19:51,439 --> 01:19:55,120 Speaker 1: afford to live in their hometown. In fact, housing prices 1469 01:19:55,240 --> 01:19:59,679 Speaker 1: nationwide have spiked by insane amounts. Zillow is now predicting 1470 01:19:59,720 --> 01:20:02,439 Speaker 1: a continued massive price spike for this year as well, 1471 01:20:02,640 --> 01:20:05,519 Speaker 1: more than seventeen percent for the entire year of twenty 1472 01:20:05,560 --> 01:20:07,880 Speaker 1: twenty two, with a peak of year over year growth 1473 01:20:07,960 --> 01:20:12,040 Speaker 1: at twenty one point six percent expected in May. There's 1474 01:20:12,040 --> 01:20:14,040 Speaker 1: a lot of reasons for that. We've covered some of 1475 01:20:14,040 --> 01:20:17,320 Speaker 1: them before, including the malign influence of private equity, but 1476 01:20:17,400 --> 01:20:20,120 Speaker 1: the increased affluence of the PMC during the pandemic is 1477 01:20:20,160 --> 01:20:22,400 Speaker 1: certainly a part of that story, and as they untether 1478 01:20:22,439 --> 01:20:26,080 Speaker 1: from offices keep their coastal city salaries but move to 1479 01:20:26,240 --> 01:20:29,800 Speaker 1: cheaper parts of the country, they only stand to benefit more, 1480 01:20:30,280 --> 01:20:33,000 Speaker 1: not to mention the gulf created between those who already 1481 01:20:33,040 --> 01:20:35,880 Speaker 1: own homes and benefit from the massive pricing spikes, and 1482 01:20:35,960 --> 01:20:38,360 Speaker 1: those who are watching the dream of home ownership get 1483 01:20:38,400 --> 01:20:41,439 Speaker 1: further and further out of their grasp every single year 1484 01:20:41,680 --> 01:20:43,760 Speaker 1: and are instead stuck on the treadmill of renting from 1485 01:20:43,840 --> 01:20:48,839 Speaker 1: landlords which are increasingly again repagious private equity giants. And honestly, 1486 01:20:48,880 --> 01:20:50,840 Speaker 1: these changes I'm sketching out there just the tip of 1487 01:20:50,880 --> 01:20:55,639 Speaker 1: the iceberg. How will already neglected public transit atrophy once 1488 01:20:55,640 --> 01:20:58,400 Speaker 1: professionals are no longer taking trains and buses to work. 1489 01:20:58,880 --> 01:21:01,400 Speaker 1: How will local culture be quashed by new residents with 1490 01:21:01,439 --> 01:21:03,880 Speaker 1: no loyalty to the local small business community and lots 1491 01:21:03,880 --> 01:21:06,720 Speaker 1: of comfort with Starbucks and Amazon and companies like that. 1492 01:21:07,360 --> 01:21:10,200 Speaker 1: How will local school systems suffer when new residents have 1493 01:21:10,280 --> 01:21:13,519 Speaker 1: no attachment to the local public schools and instead prefer 1494 01:21:13,600 --> 01:21:17,320 Speaker 1: pricey private options. How will downtowns be transformed when office 1495 01:21:17,400 --> 01:21:20,120 Speaker 1: lunch spots and dry cleaners and the like are all abandoned. 1496 01:21:20,520 --> 01:21:22,960 Speaker 1: It's impossible to wrap your head around what that could 1497 01:21:23,040 --> 01:21:26,280 Speaker 1: all look like going forward. Now, it would be wonderful 1498 01:21:26,400 --> 01:21:28,760 Speaker 1: if a rising tide for the PMC would actually lift 1499 01:21:28,800 --> 01:21:31,600 Speaker 1: all boats, but that has just literally never happened. I 1500 01:21:31,760 --> 01:21:34,160 Speaker 1: genuinely do not think it's an overstatement to say that 1501 01:21:34,200 --> 01:21:36,880 Speaker 1: the only concrete and durable gains made for the working 1502 01:21:36,880 --> 01:21:39,599 Speaker 1: class throughout history here have been through the labor movement. 1503 01:21:39,960 --> 01:21:42,479 Speaker 1: The only way that the broader working class will benefit 1504 01:21:42,760 --> 01:21:44,840 Speaker 1: from the gains of the upper middle class are through 1505 01:21:44,880 --> 01:21:48,240 Speaker 1: militant collective struggle. And that's why we focus so much 1506 01:21:48,280 --> 01:21:50,600 Speaker 1: on the fights at Starbucks and John Deere and Amazon 1507 01:21:50,600 --> 01:21:54,080 Speaker 1: and so many more. They're so incredibly essential. Walmart is 1508 01:21:54,080 --> 01:21:56,160 Speaker 1: not going to be willing to hand out a flexible 1509 01:21:56,240 --> 01:21:58,080 Speaker 1: four day work week to the folks who are manning 1510 01:21:58,080 --> 01:22:00,639 Speaker 1: the registers and stocking the shelves unless they are forced 1511 01:22:00,680 --> 01:22:04,160 Speaker 1: to do so without organized labor power. The gains of 1512 01:22:04,240 --> 01:22:06,680 Speaker 1: the top will only further contribute to a coming a 1513 01:22:06,760 --> 01:22:10,000 Speaker 1: part of America. On one side will be a fully 1514 01:22:10,439 --> 01:22:14,160 Speaker 1: justified burning resentment, and on the other side will be 1515 01:22:14,240 --> 01:22:17,800 Speaker 1: increasing contempt with the supposedly backwards lifestyles of those who 1516 01:22:17,800 --> 01:22:20,480 Speaker 1: are rooted in one place, working long hours and struggling 1517 01:22:20,520 --> 01:22:23,320 Speaker 1: to make it. After all, how else can you and 1518 01:22:23,360 --> 01:22:27,120 Speaker 1: the lucky class justify this massive gulf in basic humanity 1519 01:22:27,200 --> 01:22:30,639 Speaker 1: without internalizing that you are somehow more worthy, somehow more deserving. 1520 01:22:31,120 --> 01:22:34,639 Speaker 1: Those underlying dynamics already define so much of our politics 1521 01:22:34,640 --> 01:22:38,200 Speaker 1: of virtue signaling, censorship and populist rage. But as bad 1522 01:22:38,240 --> 01:22:40,880 Speaker 1: as things seem, we have already caught glimpses of how 1523 01:22:40,920 --> 01:22:44,960 Speaker 1: they could get so much worse and sager, even though look, 1524 01:22:45,000 --> 01:22:47,439 Speaker 1: this was written before the invasion, and obviously therese a 1525 01:22:47,439 --> 01:22:49,840 Speaker 1: little different still, And if you want to hear my 1526 01:22:50,000 --> 01:22:53,360 Speaker 1: reaction to Crystal's monologue, become a premium subscriber today at 1527 01:22:53,360 --> 01:22:59,799 Speaker 1: Breakingpoints dot com. Guys, thank you so much for tuning 1528 01:22:59,800 --> 01:23:02,599 Speaker 1: in today. You know, this is a very different show 1529 01:23:02,680 --> 01:23:06,240 Speaker 1: than than we've really done since we've started Breaking Points. 1530 01:23:06,320 --> 01:23:07,880 Speaker 1: You know, this is why we do what we do, 1531 01:23:08,080 --> 01:23:11,080 Speaker 1: texting at five am, figuring out what we're doing, and 1532 01:23:11,120 --> 01:23:13,840 Speaker 1: our great team pulling in elements at the last minute 1533 01:23:13,840 --> 01:23:16,840 Speaker 1: and putting an extra time as well, and it is 1534 01:23:16,880 --> 01:23:19,719 Speaker 1: why we do what we do. You know, we feel 1535 01:23:19,720 --> 01:23:22,760 Speaker 1: really grateful to you guys, to allowing us to be 1536 01:23:22,840 --> 01:23:24,720 Speaker 1: here and placing your trust. I mean, that's really the 1537 01:23:24,720 --> 01:23:27,320 Speaker 1: thing placing your trust in us to help try to 1538 01:23:27,400 --> 01:23:32,280 Speaker 1: interpret what our gigantic trends and seismic shifts that we're 1539 01:23:32,320 --> 01:23:34,640 Speaker 1: all trying to sort through in real time. Definitely, and 1540 01:23:34,640 --> 01:23:36,720 Speaker 1: I want to say, you know, look, I got this 1541 01:23:36,760 --> 01:23:39,760 Speaker 1: one wrong. I never expected this, and I think I 1542 01:23:39,800 --> 01:23:41,960 Speaker 1: take full responsibility for that. I mean, I don't think 1543 01:23:42,160 --> 01:23:45,599 Speaker 1: we really expected this situation to play out. I given 1544 01:23:45,640 --> 01:23:47,640 Speaker 1: the track record of view as intelligence, I did not 1545 01:23:47,760 --> 01:23:50,320 Speaker 1: believe that that track record And by the way, I'm 1546 01:23:50,320 --> 01:23:52,679 Speaker 1: going to continue to question just because they're right once 1547 01:23:52,960 --> 01:23:55,800 Speaker 1: out of twenty times does not mean well they always are. 1548 01:23:55,920 --> 01:23:59,200 Speaker 1: Let's also say, yeah, they weren't totally right. I mean, 1549 01:23:59,520 --> 01:24:02,240 Speaker 1: you know, I actually think that they did a lot 1550 01:24:02,240 --> 01:24:05,600 Speaker 1: of damage and provided a kind of propaganda win to 1551 01:24:05,720 --> 01:24:08,720 Speaker 1: the Russians when they made these very specific predictions. That 1552 01:24:09,080 --> 01:24:11,200 Speaker 1: is very true. The Russians could thumb their nose out 1553 01:24:11,240 --> 01:24:13,880 Speaker 1: of Wednesday. What are you talking about? Of course, we're 1554 01:24:13,880 --> 01:24:16,400 Speaker 1: not going to invade, and so I don't know that 1555 01:24:16,640 --> 01:24:19,439 Speaker 1: they get totally off the hook here. But listen, guys, 1556 01:24:19,800 --> 01:24:22,599 Speaker 1: what we've always said is sometimes we're going to get 1557 01:24:22,600 --> 01:24:24,920 Speaker 1: things wrong, and our pledge to you is always to 1558 01:24:24,960 --> 01:24:27,360 Speaker 1: try to be upfront and honest and just sort through 1559 01:24:27,360 --> 01:24:30,600 Speaker 1: these things as best as we possibly can, especially in 1560 01:24:30,680 --> 01:24:33,720 Speaker 1: real time. It's a dynamic situation. I really just think 1561 01:24:33,760 --> 01:24:36,200 Speaker 1: everybody who sticks with us and who supports our work, 1562 01:24:36,280 --> 01:24:38,960 Speaker 1: I truly do this work, and so do you. For 1563 01:24:39,040 --> 01:24:42,839 Speaker 1: times like this, waking up early, not that it's a burden, 1564 01:24:42,880 --> 01:24:45,240 Speaker 1: but being like, Okay, people are out there, they're waking up, 1565 01:24:45,280 --> 01:24:47,240 Speaker 1: and they're scared, and they want to know what the 1566 01:24:47,280 --> 01:24:49,320 Speaker 1: hell is going on, and it's up to us. Millions 1567 01:24:49,320 --> 01:24:51,640 Speaker 1: of people put their trust in us in order to 1568 01:24:51,640 --> 01:24:54,200 Speaker 1: bring them the news, and it means a lot, especially 1569 01:24:54,400 --> 01:24:56,720 Speaker 1: in a dynamic situation like this. I'm thinking about some 1570 01:24:56,760 --> 01:24:59,280 Speaker 1: of my friends who are actually in Ukraine right now 1571 01:24:59,320 --> 01:25:01,120 Speaker 1: as journalis, and you know, I really hope that they 1572 01:25:01,200 --> 01:25:03,600 Speaker 1: stay safe and continue to bring us the information that 1573 01:25:03,640 --> 01:25:05,880 Speaker 1: we can so we can give it to you. So look, 1574 01:25:05,920 --> 01:25:08,720 Speaker 1: it's a terrible, terrible time, but I'm proud of the 1575 01:25:08,720 --> 01:25:11,120 Speaker 1: show that we did today. And uh, look, you know, 1576 01:25:11,320 --> 01:25:13,400 Speaker 1: admitting it whenever we call it wrong, that's what we 1577 01:25:13,439 --> 01:25:16,280 Speaker 1: do here. So be it. It's okay, continue to wake 1578 01:25:16,320 --> 01:25:17,479 Speaker 1: up and do a show tomorrow. Maybe they'll do a 1579 01:25:17,520 --> 01:25:22,640 Speaker 1: monologue that everybody loves, but they always do well so 1580 01:25:22,720 --> 01:25:25,519 Speaker 1: people seem to enjoy them. We take our responsibility to you, guys, 1581 01:25:25,640 --> 01:25:27,240 Speaker 1: We take it very serious. So that's the bottom line. 1582 01:25:27,240 --> 01:25:29,080 Speaker 1: Thank you, everybody supports us. Thank you to our premium 1583 01:25:29,120 --> 01:25:31,360 Speaker 1: members everybody else. We're gonna have our content for you 1584 01:25:31,439 --> 01:25:34,759 Speaker 1: over the weekend. Will monitor the situation as close as possible. 1585 01:25:35,000 --> 01:25:37,519 Speaker 1: Thoughts with the everybody who's in Kiev and in the 1586 01:25:37,640 --> 01:25:40,160 Speaker 1: country of Ukraine right now, truly feel for you right now, 1587 01:25:40,479 --> 01:25:42,960 Speaker 1: really do absolutely guys. Enjoy your weekend. We'll see you 1588 01:25:42,960 --> 01:25:43,679 Speaker 1: back here next week.