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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast POPA All right,

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Speaker 1: here we go fifteen twenty twenty five, thirty thirty five,

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Speaker 1: horny forty five fifty and the Kicks black cover Football

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Speaker 1: stunned us.

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Speaker 2: Oh my goodness.

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Speaker 3: Please stumble and bumble the latter turn a canter on

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Speaker 3: the eadside, ju the.

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Speaker 1: Lad a table off, the fail the night.

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Speaker 4: Oh my god, it's not the size of the dog.

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Speaker 1: In the fighting. It's the size of the fight.

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Speaker 4: In the.

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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Big Bets on Campus Podcast presented by

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Speaker 1: DraftKings Sportsbook. This is the group five deep dive on

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Speaker 1: my Caliberry's joined by my Action. We're co hosts Duck

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Speaker 1: and before we get to our sounding off segment, a

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Speaker 1: little bit of positivity here. We went through in one

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Speaker 1: on our best bets in week five, three of the wins.

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Speaker 1: We're all laughers, appreciate that, get them momentum back in

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Speaker 1: the right direction. But now it's time to, you know,

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Speaker 1: take that positivity on one hand and then the other side,

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Speaker 1: just blow off some steam. A little bit of sounding

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Speaker 1: off segment. Duck. I will be quick here so we

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Speaker 1: can get to yours. Is what you gotta says.

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Speaker 3: Sound minus is not specifically for what happened in Week five,

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Speaker 3: or you know, crapping on the referees or saying this

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Speaker 3: coach doesn't know what he's doing.

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Speaker 1: I don't know if you notice this, duck, but it's

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Speaker 1: very frustrating to me that I'd say more than half

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Speaker 1: of the teams in college football they run some version

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Speaker 1: of a no huddle offense, and a big part of

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Speaker 1: it is to trap defensive personnel on the field, so

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Speaker 1: they'll run up to the line of scrimmage make sure

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Speaker 1: that if there's an opportunity to catch them in a

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Speaker 1: sub package or something like that, they can get a

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Speaker 1: quick snap off, get a free play. I get that.

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Speaker 1: But then they just turn to the sideline and they're

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Speaker 1: waiting for some kind of signals and some kind of adjustments,

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Speaker 1: YadA YadA. That's fine. I don't have any issue with that.

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Speaker 1: My issue is that in name only, sometimes these are

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Speaker 1: hurry up offenses, but then when they get in two

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Speaker 1: minute drills and they actually need to hurry up and

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Speaker 1: they need to run the line and call play and

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Speaker 1: execute quickly, they cannot do it. I feel like teams

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Speaker 1: from the nineties somehow were better in two minute situations.

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Speaker 1: Maybe they don't practice them as much. Maybe they consider

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Speaker 1: the fact that they're always in the now huddle situation.

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Speaker 1: Oh naturally, we're just going to be able to execute.

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Speaker 1: But it's so frustrating and it extends all the way

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Speaker 1: to the NFL. Seeing these teams not be able to

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Speaker 1: go at NASCAR pace and still execute is baffling to me,

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Speaker 1: particularly at the professional ranks, where you have so many

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Speaker 1: opportunities to tinker and you know, off season and OTAs

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Speaker 1: and all these times together that college programs don't have.

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Speaker 1: So it's just frustrating from my perspective to see it,

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Speaker 1: and it can cost teams games. It can you can

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Speaker 1: also see teams just fumble and mismanage end of half,

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Speaker 1: end of game situations, and it's just this kind of

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Speaker 1: sloppiness that it just frustrates me over the course of

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Speaker 1: the season. I don't know if you've seen it as

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Speaker 1: much this year, but it's just so clear to me

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Speaker 1: that these teams do not execute it and they must

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Speaker 1: not practice it because clearly they're constantly looking to the sideline.

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Speaker 1: I know that NFL evaluators and people that follow the

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Speaker 1: draft and quarterback play at the pro level, they talk

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Speaker 1: about this quarterbacks overly relying on their assistant coaches and

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Speaker 1: their play callers to basically spoon feed and get everything

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Speaker 1: just right for them. So when you have a situation

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Speaker 1: where you need to be almost calling your own plays

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Speaker 1: and executing quickly, they just fold in those situations. You

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Speaker 1: agree you're seeing something like that over the course of

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Speaker 1: the last few years in college football or is this

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Speaker 1: just I'm being an old man and get off my

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Speaker 1: lawn situation.

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Speaker 4: It's quite stunning, and with what these coaches are paid

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Speaker 4: and the amount of times that these situations come up

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Speaker 4: in game, I'm stunned by the mismanagement of it, and

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Speaker 4: that plays right into my sounding off. But to answer

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Speaker 4: your question, it is stunning to see coaches who do

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Speaker 4: not play out the first half adequately. Teams don't know

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Speaker 4: when to get into the half, they don't know how

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Speaker 4: to run hurry up at the end of the half

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Speaker 4: to get themselves into scoring position, and at the end

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Speaker 4: of game situations, it's like there's just absolutely no plan.

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Speaker 4: We saw it as real. We saw it all weekend,

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Speaker 4: but we saw it on Friday night with Colorado, or

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Speaker 4: excuse me, Saturday night with Colorado where they had the

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Speaker 4: lead against BYU they surrendered it in the second half.

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Speaker 4: They had a chance to go down and win the game,

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Speaker 4: and it took so long for them just to move

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Speaker 4: the ball to first downs, and the clock was dwindling,

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Speaker 4: and they didn't use their timeouts appropriately. They had no

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Speaker 4: plan offensively. It ended in an interception because there was

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Speaker 4: just no rhythm, there was no cadence. It's as if

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Speaker 4: these teams don't practice situational football the way that they should,

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Speaker 4: and I'm really quite stunned by it. It affects the product,

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Speaker 4: but very very baffling to me. Part of that is

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Speaker 4: I don't understand these teams that are trying to win

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Speaker 4: the game, and it's not just about covering the number,

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Speaker 4: which we saw with Tulsa, which really grinded my gears.

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Speaker 4: You're down seventeen in the fourth quarter, you have first

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Speaker 4: and goal from the f four yard line, you end

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Speaker 4: up not getting it. You could kick the field goal

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Speaker 4: to get it within fourteen. These teams are just not

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Speaker 4: managing these situations appropriately. If you're down by two scores

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Speaker 4: and you're not getting the ball into the end zone

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Speaker 4: and you could kick the field goal to get it

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Speaker 4: back to within one score and give yourself a chance

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Speaker 4: to keep the other team squeezing the ball hard. I

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Speaker 4: don't understand what these coaches are doing. I don't know

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Speaker 4: where they're getting the analytical advice, but it really does

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Speaker 4: affect the play on the field. And truly, there's nothing

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Speaker 4: worse than these crazy situations where teams are down and

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Speaker 4: they're going for two when they don't need to, and

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Speaker 4: it messes up the scoring and messes up our bets.

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Speaker 4: And my sounding off is done, But that was just

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Speaker 4: it is terrible to see these coaches mismanage situational football

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Speaker 4: as if they've never coached a game before. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: I mean, you don't even have to go back that far.

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Speaker 1: Just look at the blur offense that Chip Kelly ran

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Speaker 1: at Oregon. They would come out in the second half

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Speaker 1: in particular in games, and they'd have four or five

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Speaker 1: plays absolutely holstered, triggered, ready to go, and they'd run

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Speaker 1: to the line as fast as possible. They weren't doing

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Speaker 1: any of those. Check with me, is, oh, it looks

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Speaker 1: like they're in a Cover three. Let's switch this. No bullshit,

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Speaker 1: Let's just go fast. Let the defense make a mistake,

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Speaker 1: get gassed, have the wrong personnel. That's enough. We're not

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Speaker 1: looking for every single strategic advantage. Sometimes speed and execution

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Speaker 1: is enough. I'm surprised that more teams haven't gone back

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Speaker 1: to that and borrowed from it. I mean, UCF had

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Speaker 1: so much success with it in twenty sixteen, seventeen eighteen,

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Speaker 1: running a very similar offense to that, you know, with

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Speaker 1: Scott Frost being a part of that for most of

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Speaker 1: those years. I don't know. I would love to see

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Speaker 1: somebody go back to it and show me that it

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Speaker 1: can still be effective at you know, the stage of

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Speaker 1: college football. Before we get into our best bets, let's

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Speaker 1: toss over to Stucky for a quick word from our sponsor.

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Speaker 2: The Big Bets on Campus podcast is sponsored by DraftKings

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Speaker 1: week six, the best bets are here, Duck, let's hear

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Speaker 1: from you first. You're going with a MAC matchup with

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Speaker 1: a new MAC team here in twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm looking at Western Michigan on the road. Their

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Speaker 4: defense is playing lights out there, averaging surrendering just four

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Speaker 4: yards per carry on the ground, and that factors in

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Speaker 4: the two games that they played against Big ten competition,

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Speaker 4: just twenty eight percent of third down conversions against them

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Speaker 4: have been given up the last two weeks, Western Michigan

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Speaker 4: has secured eighteen sacks and thirty three tackles for loss

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Speaker 4: this season, and they have the third best pass rushing

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Speaker 4: grades per PFF in the MAC. That's a problem for UMass,

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Speaker 4: who surrendered ten sacks and thirty tackles for loss this season.

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Speaker 4: They have the second worst pass blocking grades per PFF

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Speaker 4: and MAC do the Mass Minutemen. Two point five yards

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Speaker 4: per carry on the ground this season for U MASS

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Speaker 4: and just two point nine yards per play overall this

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Speaker 4: season while averaging two hundred and twenty five yards per game. Offensively,

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Speaker 4: the U MASS group has been so unsettled at quarterback,

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Speaker 4: as all three have been used this season, that being Grant, Jordan,

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Speaker 4: Brandon Rose and AJ Harston who played some last season.

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Speaker 4: U Mass just one hundred and twenty third nationally and

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Speaker 4: offensive finishing drives, and I just don't see them having

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Speaker 4: any explosivity against a very impressive and overperforming Western Michigan

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Speaker 4: defensive unit. I don't see how they move the football here,

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Speaker 4: and Western Michigan is just starting to find it a

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Speaker 4: little bit offensively. While Brock Lowry has not been great

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Speaker 4: this season, offensively it's looked a little better the last

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Speaker 4: couple of weeks. U MASS is just one hundred and

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Speaker 4: twenty sixth and securing defensive havocs, so there should be

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Speaker 4: very little pressure against Western Michigan's quarterback. Brock Lowry and

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Speaker 4: U MASS is very poor performing in early downs and

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Speaker 4: so Western Michigan should see themselves in favorable situations to

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Speaker 4: possess the ball extend drives. I expect this game to

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Speaker 4: be lower scoring, but I expect Western Michigan to pull

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Speaker 4: away in the second half and win this game by

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Speaker 4: three touchdowns. On the road. I'm laying the twelve and

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Speaker 4: a half with the Broncos.

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Speaker 1: For my first best bet. I am turning to a

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Speaker 1: Friday night matchup in Conference USA, Western Kentucky traveling to Newark.

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Speaker 1: Gonna go over sixty one and a half between the

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Speaker 1: Hilltoppers and Blue Hens. This year, I thought the Blue

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Speaker 1: Hens would have a quality Conference USA defense and if

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Speaker 1: they were lucky, they get a little something out of

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Speaker 1: their offense to be able to muck games up, maybe

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Speaker 1: pull out five or six wins. Well, this offense is

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Speaker 1: cooking with Minicuci at the helm, second in Conference USA

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Speaker 1: in scoring and total offense. Great balance as well, It's

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Speaker 1: not just a one man show. With him putting the

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Speaker 1: ball in orbit forty times a game. Jonathan Silver is

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Speaker 1: averaging over seven yards per carry the Minicouci twelve tds

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Speaker 1: against just two turnovers on the season. He should get

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Speaker 1: Jake Thaw back, as is probably his top target, certainly

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Speaker 1: is a safety blanket target. It's difficult. I know it's

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Speaker 1: to USA. You don't have all this availability in terms

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Speaker 1: of injury news, but by all indications him being questionable

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Speaker 1: two weeks ago, having that bye week, it looks like

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Speaker 1: he's on track to get back out there, and he's

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Speaker 1: somebody you know, He's a big body. He can help

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Speaker 1: move the chains for you, Dell. Speaking of you Dell,

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Speaker 1: blocking up the Hilltoppers is going to be an issue.

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Speaker 1: Their calling card is their front seven. Western Kentucky has

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Speaker 1: twenty eight tackles for loss this season and a very

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Speaker 1: active secondary, leading Conference USA in passes defended. But I've

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Speaker 1: seen enough from this Delaware offense their fiftieth in havoc avoidance,

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Speaker 1: and I trust Minikuchi, who you know, not only has

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Speaker 1: performed well in those games that were winnable, but he

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Speaker 1: also threw for over three hundred yards on the road

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Speaker 1: against Colorado. He's got that gritty playmaker ridden all over him. Defensively, though,

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Speaker 1: I think this is a big step up in competition

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Speaker 1: for the Hens. They're one hundred and twelfth in total defense,

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Speaker 1: they have just one takeaway per game on the season,

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Speaker 1: and they can't get to the quarterback at all. They're

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Speaker 1: one hundred and eighteenth in pass rush per PFF and

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Speaker 1: giving Maverick McIvor a clean pocket, that's the difference between

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Speaker 1: winning and losing. On thirty percent of his snaps this season,

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Speaker 1: Maverick has been under fire. The results are zero touchdown

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Speaker 1: passes and a sub fifty percent completion percentage. So that

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Speaker 1: is exactly how you rattle him. You get people in

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Speaker 1: his face. He doesn't make the best decisions and those

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Speaker 1: deep shots kind of dry up. But in a clean pocket,

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Speaker 1: which accounts for seventy percent of his dropbacks this season,

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Speaker 1: he's a maestro over eighty percent in terms of his

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Speaker 1: adjusted completion percentage eleven tds, just two picks and ten

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Speaker 1: big time throws. So I think both these quarterbacks can

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Speaker 1: sling it, and I think we're ready for an old

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Speaker 1: school weeknight conference too. Is a shootout last week almost

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Speaker 1: nine hundred total yards for Western Kentucky against Missouri State.

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Speaker 1: The game started with five straight punts, but after that

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Speaker 1: they were cooking. They get to forty nine points. I

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Speaker 1: think the key here is that Western gets off to

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Speaker 1: a hotter start. Something to keep in mind, Delaware has

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Speaker 1: not had a great first quarter defense. They've given up

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Speaker 1: over eight and a half points per game in the

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Speaker 1: first quarter. So I think the Hilltoppers hit the ground

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Speaker 1: running and we're going to go over the sixty one

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Speaker 1: and a half. What are your thoughts on this Western

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Speaker 1: offense that you know started the season gangbusters, but we

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Speaker 1: kind of have to throw out that sample because it

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Speaker 1: was against a Sam Houston State defense that's drawn dead

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Speaker 1: at this point and they've been a little bit underwhelming since.

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Speaker 1: Do you think they're going to get off the mat

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Speaker 1: here and really show their a game against the Blue Hens.

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Speaker 4: Well, I think it's a really critical Conference USA game.

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Speaker 4: It's one where Western Kentucky really needs to kind of

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Speaker 4: shake the stink off of him. Last week, they had

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Speaker 4: such a great opportunity to really expose a poor pass

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Speaker 4: coverage unit in Missouri State, and they look good at times,

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Speaker 4: and then they went stretches where they just couldn't get

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Speaker 4: their big playmakers on the outside involved. In the last

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Speaker 4: couple of weeks now, Matthew Henry's been quiet and mcgiver

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Speaker 4: has just looked a tad out of rhythm. Here, they

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Speaker 4: were able to geek out a cover against Missouri State

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Speaker 4: on the road, and you know, I was kind of

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Speaker 4: waiting for the slide for Delaware. I thought that this

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Speaker 4: bunch would play hard. I thought Delaware would play really

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Speaker 4: spirited football, but that they would somewhat wear down do

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Speaker 4: to being undersized defensively. They really showed out a couple

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Speaker 4: of weeks ago against Florida International on the road. There

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Speaker 4: still could be a bit of a slide coming defensively,

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Speaker 4: but I think Delaware has very much proven the critics

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Speaker 4: wrong about their offense. They're moving the football well, they're

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Speaker 4: making the right play calls, they're converting in the red zone,

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Speaker 4: and you know, I think this is just a spot

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Speaker 4: for Western Kentucky where they absolutely have to prove it

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Speaker 4: and they need to really start to get their offense

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Speaker 4: humming as they get into the crux of league play.

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Speaker 4: So I would like to believe that they're able to

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Speaker 4: do that. I think there should be a fun one

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Speaker 4: on Friday Night, and I would look for a high

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Speaker 4: scoring affair. So I think over sixty one is absolutely

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Speaker 4: the way I would go here.

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Speaker 1: All Right, so we're laying the points with Western, We're

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Speaker 1: looking for a shootout. It's time to throw some negativity

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Speaker 1: into the pod here. You are not a believer in

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Speaker 1: the Zips, who finally got some points on the board

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Speaker 1: after getting goosegged in their first two games of the season.

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Speaker 1: Where do you see their offense moving as we headed

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Speaker 1: the conference play In earnest.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, we kind of saw the formula for shutting down

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Speaker 4: at this Acron attack, and their offense did receive a

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Speaker 4: boost ala playing FCS Ducaine who's got a bad defense,

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Speaker 4: and also UAB who has a really porous defense. But

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Speaker 4: Akron overall just one hundred and thirty third an offensive

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Speaker 4: success rate one thirty six. Then FBS, which is dead

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Speaker 4: last in offensive finishing drives and one hundred and twenty

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Speaker 4: third in offensive explosivity achieved twenty four percent on third

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Speaker 4: down is what Akrons converting seventeen out of seventy one

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Speaker 4: and just seven out of fifteen times into the red

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Speaker 4: zone have they scored touchdowns. The Zips are just averaging

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Speaker 4: four and a half yards per play and three times

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Speaker 4: this season they've been held under three and a half

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Speaker 4: yards per play. We saw it against Aledo last week.

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Speaker 4: They're back to not being able to convert, not being

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Speaker 4: able to move the ball. We're going to see in

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Speaker 4: this game a very slow pace from Central Michigan. You know,

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Speaker 4: they're really good at putting you in the blender defensively

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Speaker 4: where you're going to get the four yards per carry grind.

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Speaker 4: Central Michigan is going to outpossess you with the football.

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Speaker 4: They're going to truncate the game down, and they're going

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Speaker 4: to play very, very slow pace. Central Michigan defensively, has

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Speaker 4: all been able to pin down two fairly solid G

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Speaker 4: five offenses in San Jose State and Eastern Michigan. They've

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Speaker 4: allowed just one passing touchdown the last three weeks and

334
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Speaker 4: just three rushing scores have been given up by Central

335
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Speaker 4: Michigan over the totality of the season. If you factor

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Speaker 4: out their game against Michigan where they were just outclassed

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Speaker 4: and overwhelmed Central Michigan in the red zone. Factoring out

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Speaker 4: that Michigan game, just two out of seven red zone

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Speaker 4: trips have resulted in touchdowns, and Akron has just two

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Speaker 4: red zone touchdowns all season against FBS competition. This spells

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Speaker 4: major trouble for the Zips. I listened to the Joe

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Speaker 4: moorehead press conference this week and he just sounded like

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Speaker 4: a defeated man. He was conceding that their team was

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Speaker 4: outclassed and got whipped by Toledo and there was nothing

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Speaker 4: that they could really do about it. And really they're

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Speaker 4: they're they're looking forward to homecoming this week and having

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Speaker 4: some of the old time players and the constituents come

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Speaker 4: back home. But there's just really not a lot to

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Speaker 4: draw from Akron for this particular game against Central, and

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Speaker 4: really over the totality of their season. There's a lot

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Speaker 4: of scheduling quirks about them not having a bye week,

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Speaker 4: finishing their season earlier than any FBS team. There's no

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Speaker 4: bowl game to play for, no conference championship. This is

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Speaker 4: just a team that's dead in the water, and I

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Speaker 4: don't see a lot to get excited about here. The

356
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Speaker 4: offensive woes are going to continue for Akron. Team total

357
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Speaker 4: under seventeen and a half.

358
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Speaker 1: Not to say I told you so to Achron, but

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Speaker 1: this was the year that we assumed was going to

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Speaker 1: be a lost season. They weren't going to be competitive

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Speaker 1: most of the time. Get those APR scores up. This

362
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Speaker 1: is the time to get some academic all conference you know,

363
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Speaker 1: D two, D three, bring people in, doesn't even matter

364
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Speaker 1: if you can play football, So just get a four

365
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Speaker 1: point zero in the classroom. Raise the level here academically.

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Speaker 1: But they haven't done it. It seems like morehead is

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Speaker 1: short for this job. It's a program that already has

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Speaker 1: huge hurdles to overcome from the get go, But when

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Speaker 1: you add on the fact that they didn't have bowl

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Speaker 1: eligibility to play for it's killing them in terms of

371
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Speaker 1: the transfer portal. They didn't have a lot of money

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Speaker 1: to offer in the first place, then you could say,

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Speaker 1: at least you can come in and play. But now

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Speaker 1: he can't even play in a bowl game and just

375
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Speaker 1: too many issues to overcome. So it'll be interesting to

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Speaker 1: see if he's even the head coach at the end

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Speaker 1: of the season, if he wants to be. It seems

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Speaker 1: like it could be won where he just quits and

379
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Speaker 1: takes a coordinator role somewhere else. Certainly he's done that,

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Speaker 1: you know, it's a great success at other stops in

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Speaker 1: his career. I'm going to close this out with a

382
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Speaker 1: team total. I'm gonna go over in nineteen and a

383
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Speaker 1: half air Force traveling to Navy. Where is the respect

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Speaker 1: for this Air Force offense? I'm not sure people are

385
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Speaker 1: watching them. I know that they've already lost three games

386
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Speaker 1: this year, so maybe folks are just looking at the

387
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Speaker 1: win column. But what more do you want to see?

388
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Speaker 1: I mean, specifically, in just the offensive side of the football.

389
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Speaker 1: They've scored one hundred and two points in the last

390
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Speaker 1: three weeks. They're second in offensive success rate, and per usual,

391
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Speaker 1: they're second in havoc avoidance. They're always moving, getting into

392
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Speaker 1: third and manageables at worst, they're never behind the chains.

393
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Speaker 1: And when this offense is humming, they get explosive pass plays,

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Speaker 1: and that's what we have right now. They're third in

395
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Speaker 1: aerial explosives. Liams Zarca can sling it and Kate Harris

396
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Speaker 1: is someone that they use at all different spots, you know,

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Speaker 1: whether it's as a running back out wide, as a

398
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Speaker 1: wide receiver, using him on trick plays. They just keep

399
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Speaker 1: slipping him into the secondary and he's catching the ball

400
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Speaker 1: with no one around him. If you look at that

401
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Speaker 1: Hawaii game, really the entire season, he's got sixteen receptions,

402
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Speaker 1: four hundred and thirty nine yards. That's twenty seven point

403
00:19:18,760 --> 00:19:21,600
Speaker 1: four yards per reception. And oh, by the way, their

404
00:19:21,600 --> 00:19:23,680
Speaker 1: defense stinks, which I think is going to be great

405
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Speaker 1: because Navy's going to be able to hit explosive plays

406
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Speaker 1: and hand the ball right back to the Falcons. Because

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Speaker 1: the last thing that you want to see in a

408
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Speaker 1: situation like this is Navy go on a fifteen play drive,

409
00:19:32,760 --> 00:19:34,480
Speaker 1: beat up ten minutes, and then all of a sudden,

410
00:19:34,640 --> 00:19:37,639
Speaker 1: the overall possessions of the game shrink, particularly for a

411
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Speaker 1: team total here, but when you look at it, four

412
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Speaker 1: touchdown drives for Hawaii against Air Force with six players

413
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Speaker 1: or fewer. Same for Boise they had four touchdown drives

414
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Speaker 1: with five players or fewer. So the players are coming quickly.

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Speaker 1: They have no answers on the defensive side, so there's

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Speaker 1: going to be opportunities for this Air Force offense to

417
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Speaker 1: score some points. And when they are up against that

418
00:19:56,160 --> 00:19:58,520
Speaker 1: Navy defense. I haven't been impressed with what they've done

419
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Speaker 1: defensively their schedule, it has been absolutely atrocious and they're

420
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Speaker 1: leaky when facing the pass. There are one hundred and

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Speaker 1: eighth and explosives allowed in terms of you know, through

422
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Speaker 1: the air, one hundred and ninth in PPA there. This

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00:20:09,600 --> 00:20:12,360
Speaker 1: matches the preseason hype or lack thereof, I guess more

424
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Speaker 1: the preseason fears for this Navy defense with their secondary

425
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Speaker 1: And keep in mind they drew VMI, Rice, Tulsa and

426
00:20:18,440 --> 00:20:21,080
Speaker 1: uab uab was the only one that had a living,

427
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Speaker 1: breathing passing attack that really wanted to focus on it.

428
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Speaker 1: Rice doesn't pass at all. VMI is allows the FCS

429
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Speaker 1: team and Tulsa prefers to run and when they do pass,

430
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Speaker 1: it's rarely successful, so I think the reality is the

431
00:20:31,560 --> 00:20:34,359
Speaker 1: midshipman could be even worse against the pass than these

432
00:20:34,440 --> 00:20:37,480
Speaker 1: numbers have indicated thus far the season. And this total,

433
00:20:37,560 --> 00:20:41,479
Speaker 1: like many Service Academy totals and odds, they're predicated on history.

434
00:20:41,600 --> 00:20:44,040
Speaker 1: In the last seven years in this series, there have

435
00:20:44,119 --> 00:20:46,600
Speaker 1: been six games in which one side was held to

436
00:20:46,680 --> 00:20:49,480
Speaker 1: ten points or less. But this year is different. I

437
00:20:49,520 --> 00:20:52,879
Speaker 1: think both these offenses can really play. Both defenses have major,

438
00:20:53,000 --> 00:20:55,560
Speaker 1: major question marks up and down their roster, and they

439
00:20:55,600 --> 00:20:58,000
Speaker 1: both have the kind of explosiveness. As I said, to

440
00:20:58,040 --> 00:21:01,639
Speaker 1: avoid those dreaded fifteen plays seventy two yard drive that

441
00:21:01,720 --> 00:21:03,639
Speaker 1: ends in a field goal but bleeds out nine to

442
00:21:03,680 --> 00:21:05,679
Speaker 1: ten minutes of the clock. So I'm going to go

443
00:21:05,720 --> 00:21:07,200
Speaker 1: over nineteen and a half. I like it all the

444
00:21:07,240 --> 00:21:09,639
Speaker 1: way up to the edge of three touchdowns. Twenty and

445
00:21:09,680 --> 00:21:12,320
Speaker 1: a half would be my cutoff there. The Falcons, I

446
00:21:12,359 --> 00:21:15,159
Speaker 1: think it's going to take a few balls bouncing their

447
00:21:15,200 --> 00:21:17,680
Speaker 1: way to stay in this for four quarters. But offensively,

448
00:21:17,680 --> 00:21:19,080
Speaker 1: I don't think they're going to stop. You saw that

449
00:21:19,160 --> 00:21:22,840
Speaker 1: against why they almost orchestrated a late comeback. This offense

450
00:21:22,880 --> 00:21:26,080
Speaker 1: when it goes from that flex bone triple back to

451
00:21:26,119 --> 00:21:29,040
Speaker 1: the pistol and shotgun. When their backs are against the wall,

452
00:21:29,440 --> 00:21:32,560
Speaker 1: Sarka can execute it. So I've seen enough from this

453
00:21:32,600 --> 00:21:34,439
Speaker 1: team to go over on their point total. What are

454
00:21:34,480 --> 00:21:37,520
Speaker 1: your thoughts on fly Fight win here scored some points

455
00:21:37,560 --> 00:21:38,560
Speaker 1: against the Naval Academy.

456
00:21:39,119 --> 00:21:41,480
Speaker 4: Well, you know the problem with Air Force. We thought

457
00:21:41,520 --> 00:21:43,680
Speaker 4: that they were going to carry over their four game

458
00:21:43,720 --> 00:21:47,200
Speaker 4: win streak from last season and really show some intestinal fortitude,

459
00:21:47,200 --> 00:21:50,560
Speaker 4: and they have offensively, and since they've inserted Liam Sarka

460
00:21:50,600 --> 00:21:53,080
Speaker 4: at quarterback, their offense has really been humming.

461
00:21:53,400 --> 00:21:53,560
Speaker 1: You know.

462
00:21:53,600 --> 00:21:56,679
Speaker 4: I will say that I took an under in this

463
00:21:56,800 --> 00:21:59,720
Speaker 4: game immediately on the openers. When it was opened up,

464
00:22:00,440 --> 00:22:02,120
Speaker 4: it opened up fifty five and a half. I thought

465
00:22:02,160 --> 00:22:04,560
Speaker 4: it was too high. I'll probably double back the other

466
00:22:04,600 --> 00:22:06,560
Speaker 4: way and you'll try admit a li or get out

467
00:22:06,560 --> 00:22:09,160
Speaker 4: of that number. I think we'll see a feeling out process,

468
00:22:09,240 --> 00:22:11,679
Speaker 4: as these games typically are lower scoring, and so we

469
00:22:11,760 --> 00:22:14,480
Speaker 4: might see punt punt, field goal to start, so I

470
00:22:14,480 --> 00:22:16,680
Speaker 4: can get a live over for the full game at

471
00:22:17,119 --> 00:22:19,800
Speaker 4: forty one, forty two something like that. But I will

472
00:22:19,840 --> 00:22:23,720
Speaker 4: say Air Force has had such a propensity to throw

473
00:22:23,800 --> 00:22:27,119
Speaker 4: the ball and keep themselves in games. And the second

474
00:22:27,160 --> 00:22:31,200
Speaker 4: half scoring has been completely through the roof with these

475
00:22:31,480 --> 00:22:34,080
Speaker 4: With these air Force games this season, they're not securing

476
00:22:34,080 --> 00:22:36,159
Speaker 4: a lot of stops. There's they're very weak in the

477
00:22:36,200 --> 00:22:38,760
Speaker 4: defensive front. And so when you look at the teams

478
00:22:38,760 --> 00:22:41,280
Speaker 4: that they've played in league play this season, Utah State,

479
00:22:41,359 --> 00:22:44,040
Speaker 4: Boise State, Hawaii, they've been able to do whatever they

480
00:22:44,040 --> 00:22:46,320
Speaker 4: want against this air Force defense, and air Force has

481
00:22:46,320 --> 00:22:48,400
Speaker 4: been able to punch back, and a lot of it's

482
00:22:48,400 --> 00:22:51,280
Speaker 4: been the explosive downfield passing that you would alluded to,

483
00:22:51,600 --> 00:22:53,720
Speaker 4: and air Force they sign up for sixty minutes and

484
00:22:53,760 --> 00:22:55,840
Speaker 4: they're going to be throwing it around until the very end.

485
00:22:56,560 --> 00:22:58,280
Speaker 4: The more and more I look at this one, it's

486
00:22:58,320 --> 00:23:00,920
Speaker 4: probably higher scoring, and there there's a there's a there's

487
00:23:00,960 --> 00:23:03,800
Speaker 4: a chance that air Force can stay within striking distance here,

488
00:23:03,840 --> 00:23:07,600
Speaker 4: but it's probably going to be one where if they're down,

489
00:23:07,800 --> 00:23:09,760
Speaker 4: you know, we'll keep fighting, keep throwing the ball with

490
00:23:09,840 --> 00:23:12,879
Speaker 4: Sarka and I would be led to believe that they

491
00:23:12,880 --> 00:23:13,920
Speaker 4: would have closed this total.

492
00:23:15,400 --> 00:23:16,240
Speaker 1: I'm out of time.

493
00:23:16,240 --> 00:23:17,000
Speaker 2: I mean, I got.

494
00:23:28,880 --> 00:23:31,920
Speaker 1: Now your four minute segments, four minute offense, I should say,

495
00:23:31,960 --> 00:23:33,879
Speaker 1: is on deck here. And what's interesting is this is

496
00:23:33,880 --> 00:23:35,240
Speaker 1: about the time of the year when there's lots of

497
00:23:35,240 --> 00:23:39,280
Speaker 1: graphics who's still undefeated in college football, lots of conversations

498
00:23:39,320 --> 00:23:41,560
Speaker 1: about who that autobid out of the G five could be,

499
00:23:42,200 --> 00:23:45,000
Speaker 1: UNLV should be. In both those conversations, they are undefeated,

500
00:23:45,040 --> 00:23:47,359
Speaker 1: so they're clearly on the graphic, but I don't think

501
00:23:47,359 --> 00:23:49,520
Speaker 1: they're getting any respect out there in the market. And

502
00:23:49,800 --> 00:23:52,280
Speaker 1: Stuck has, you know, thrown a lot of shade and

503
00:23:52,320 --> 00:23:56,400
Speaker 1: dirt on this UNLV team as the most fraudulent undefeated

504
00:23:56,440 --> 00:23:59,120
Speaker 1: team in the country, and it's hard to disagree with them.

505
00:23:59,119 --> 00:24:01,480
Speaker 1: The Miami of Ohio game was an absolute gift. Yet

506
00:24:01,760 --> 00:24:04,919
Speaker 1: injuries and blown coverages and all these wild things that

507
00:24:04,960 --> 00:24:07,399
Speaker 1: happened in that game, and then the opener they almost

508
00:24:07,400 --> 00:24:10,919
Speaker 1: get nipped by Idaho State. But along the way, this

509
00:24:11,000 --> 00:24:14,359
Speaker 1: offense has gotten a little bit better. Calandria has shown

510
00:24:14,680 --> 00:24:17,159
Speaker 1: that he certainly has a handle for what Mullen wants

511
00:24:17,400 --> 00:24:19,600
Speaker 1: him to be able to do as a dual threat quarterback.

512
00:24:19,960 --> 00:24:22,000
Speaker 1: Jet Thomas is someone that you can get excited about

513
00:24:22,000 --> 00:24:24,040
Speaker 1: out of the backfield. Have we gone too far in

514
00:24:24,080 --> 00:24:26,639
Speaker 1: the other direction? And how does that relate to this

515
00:24:26,720 --> 00:24:28,520
Speaker 1: matchup with the Pokes of Wyoming?

516
00:24:29,119 --> 00:24:31,240
Speaker 4: Well, I mean, I think you look at UNLV, their

517
00:24:31,280 --> 00:24:34,080
Speaker 4: defense has been really bad. They struggled with Miami of

518
00:24:34,080 --> 00:24:37,199
Speaker 4: Ohio mightily with a backup quarterback. They struggled in the

519
00:24:37,200 --> 00:24:40,000
Speaker 4: opener against Idaho State. There was just they've they've been

520
00:24:40,040 --> 00:24:42,600
Speaker 4: giving up some chunk plays. They've been really struggling to

521
00:24:42,640 --> 00:24:46,200
Speaker 4: contain opposing offenses. And now we have unique scheduling here

522
00:24:46,240 --> 00:24:48,879
Speaker 4: for UNLV, as they will have only played one game

523
00:24:49,080 --> 00:24:54,440
Speaker 4: in a month's time between UCLA and Wyoming, and they

524
00:24:54,440 --> 00:24:57,439
Speaker 4: had to buy preceding Miami of Ohio, and they had

525
00:24:57,480 --> 00:24:59,560
Speaker 4: to buy afterwards, and so there could be a little

526
00:24:59,560 --> 00:25:01,440
Speaker 4: bit of ru here that they have to shake off.

527
00:25:02,040 --> 00:25:04,240
Speaker 4: You know, you look at Wyoming and they really started

528
00:25:04,240 --> 00:25:06,720
Speaker 4: to find it a bit on the road against Colorado

529
00:25:06,760 --> 00:25:10,119
Speaker 4: a couple of weeks back, but that was when the

530
00:25:10,160 --> 00:25:13,960
Speaker 4: game was seemingly out of reach at that point. So overall,

531
00:25:14,000 --> 00:25:18,080
Speaker 4: Wyoming's offense has really struggled offensively. They're just one hundred

532
00:25:18,080 --> 00:25:20,920
Speaker 4: and twelfth in offensive finishing drives, one hundred and eleventh

533
00:25:21,040 --> 00:25:24,600
Speaker 4: are the Cowboys in offensive explosivity, and one hundred and

534
00:25:24,640 --> 00:25:28,119
Speaker 4: sixteenth in pass play explosivity. So the primary way that

535
00:25:28,160 --> 00:25:32,479
Speaker 4: you attack UNLV's defensive weakness, I just don't see it

536
00:25:32,520 --> 00:25:36,200
Speaker 4: happening necessarily for Caden Anderson in this Wyoming group that's

537
00:25:36,240 --> 00:25:38,880
Speaker 4: averaging just one hundred and seventy five pass yards per

538
00:25:38,920 --> 00:25:42,640
Speaker 4: game and just completing fifty five percent. You've got one

539
00:25:42,720 --> 00:25:46,240
Speaker 4: primary target if you're Wyoming and Chris dur And otherwise.

540
00:25:46,280 --> 00:25:48,959
Speaker 4: There's just not a lot of explosive weapons on the

541
00:25:48,960 --> 00:25:54,000
Speaker 4: outside that will really exploit UNLV. The ground game for

542
00:25:54,040 --> 00:25:57,679
Speaker 4: Wyoming is efficient, but they're not explosive, and with the

543
00:25:57,720 --> 00:26:02,879
Speaker 4: Polks being run oriented, they really could magnify trying to

544
00:26:02,960 --> 00:26:05,679
Speaker 4: run the ball against the UNLV defense that's giving up

545
00:26:05,720 --> 00:26:07,480
Speaker 4: five and a half yards per carry on the ground

546
00:26:07,520 --> 00:26:11,159
Speaker 4: this season. You know, defensively, I don't know that Wyoming's

547
00:26:11,200 --> 00:26:14,320
Speaker 4: been too terribly bad. They're surrendering eighteen points per game

548
00:26:14,800 --> 00:26:17,640
Speaker 4: and they've only given up six red zone scores out

549
00:26:17,640 --> 00:26:20,560
Speaker 4: of ten trips this entire season. You look at the

550
00:26:20,600 --> 00:26:24,080
Speaker 4: Pokes in the metrics, the defense is averaging or excuse me,

551
00:26:24,240 --> 00:26:27,600
Speaker 4: just twenty fourth in defensive success rate ratio for the

552
00:26:27,760 --> 00:26:31,920
Speaker 4: entire season, third in defensive finishing drives, and Wyoming is

553
00:26:32,000 --> 00:26:35,800
Speaker 4: second in defensive EPA per play. They're good in passing downs,

554
00:26:35,800 --> 00:26:37,879
Speaker 4: they're good in early downs, and it just kind of

555
00:26:37,880 --> 00:26:41,040
Speaker 4: seems like a defense that can frustrate you by forcing

556
00:26:41,520 --> 00:26:45,240
Speaker 4: the underneath stuff, forcing you to take plays five four

557
00:26:45,320 --> 00:26:47,920
Speaker 4: or five six yards at a time, and just kind

558
00:26:47,920 --> 00:26:50,760
Speaker 4: of waiting on you to make a mistake. I look

559
00:26:50,760 --> 00:26:54,680
Speaker 4: at UNLV offensively, they want to run the ball. Before

560
00:26:54,720 --> 00:26:56,680
Speaker 4: the Miami of Ohio game, they were running the ball

561
00:26:56,760 --> 00:26:59,320
Speaker 4: sixty three percent of the time. They were throwing it

562
00:26:59,320 --> 00:27:01,200
Speaker 4: a lot more. Again, it's mind me of Ohio because

563
00:27:01,240 --> 00:27:03,040
Speaker 4: they were down and had to come back and really

564
00:27:03,080 --> 00:27:05,879
Speaker 4: needed to get into that game. But they want to

565
00:27:05,960 --> 00:27:09,119
Speaker 4: run the football. What I see here is kind of

566
00:27:09,119 --> 00:27:11,800
Speaker 4: a slow burning grinder. I see them running the ball

567
00:27:12,359 --> 00:27:16,880
Speaker 4: for success, but not necessarily explosivity. I see Wyoming allowing

568
00:27:16,920 --> 00:27:19,080
Speaker 4: four point nine yards per carry on the ground. That's

569
00:27:19,200 --> 00:27:21,359
Speaker 4: enough to be effective, but it's also enough to be

570
00:27:21,440 --> 00:27:24,240
Speaker 4: inviting to the run game. I think we're going to

571
00:27:24,280 --> 00:27:27,600
Speaker 4: see both teams run heavy. We'll see a limited number

572
00:27:27,600 --> 00:27:29,680
Speaker 4: of possessions. I don't know that we'll see a ton

573
00:27:29,720 --> 00:27:32,919
Speaker 4: of the explosive chunk plays. You know, UNLV is a

574
00:27:32,920 --> 00:27:35,000
Speaker 4: good football team, but there could be a little bit

575
00:27:35,040 --> 00:27:37,440
Speaker 4: of rust here. Having played one game in twenty eight

576
00:27:37,520 --> 00:27:40,359
Speaker 4: days and now you've got to go to Larradice. The

577
00:27:40,400 --> 00:27:42,879
Speaker 4: big handicap for me, or at least the bonus will be.

578
00:27:43,520 --> 00:27:46,560
Speaker 4: We're expecting some high wind during this game, gus of

579
00:27:46,680 --> 00:27:49,200
Speaker 4: up to thirty five miles an hour, and that Wyoming

580
00:27:49,240 --> 00:27:51,920
Speaker 4: wind is pretty reliable the first week of October. So

581
00:27:52,359 --> 00:27:55,920
Speaker 4: I see a slower paced game. I see a close game.

582
00:27:56,680 --> 00:27:58,720
Speaker 4: But my official play on this game that I've logged

583
00:27:58,720 --> 00:28:00,639
Speaker 4: in the app at this point is un fifty two

584
00:28:00,720 --> 00:28:02,720
Speaker 4: and a half. I would get that quickly because those

585
00:28:02,840 --> 00:28:05,679
Speaker 4: numbers are disappearing. We're gonna get wind, we're gonna get

586
00:28:05,760 --> 00:28:08,280
Speaker 4: run heavy, we're gonna get a running clock, and I

587
00:28:08,560 --> 00:28:11,760
Speaker 4: just can see. You know, both of these teams haven't

588
00:28:11,800 --> 00:28:15,720
Speaker 4: success between the twenties, but that doesn't necessarily result in

589
00:28:15,760 --> 00:28:19,120
Speaker 4: a high output for me either. I don't think Wyoming's

590
00:28:19,160 --> 00:28:22,639
Speaker 4: offensive attack can exploit you and lv's defense, and I

591
00:28:22,640 --> 00:28:24,399
Speaker 4: think we get a field goal game either way. So

592
00:28:24,440 --> 00:28:26,359
Speaker 4: I can see this twenty four to twenty one, twenty

593
00:28:26,400 --> 00:28:29,479
Speaker 4: seven to twenty one, but I would take under fifty

594
00:28:29,480 --> 00:28:31,199
Speaker 4: two and a half as I just think there's going

595
00:28:31,240 --> 00:28:33,359
Speaker 4: to be a lot of variables that point to a

596
00:28:33,480 --> 00:28:35,320
Speaker 4: slow burning grinder in this one.

597
00:28:35,560 --> 00:28:37,760
Speaker 1: We've talked about it for years. Lardie can be a

598
00:28:37,840 --> 00:28:40,280
Speaker 1: nightmare when they have a stingy defense and the weather

599
00:28:40,720 --> 00:28:42,800
Speaker 1: cooperates the way that they want to play football, whether

600
00:28:42,840 --> 00:28:45,720
Speaker 1: it's you know, painfully cold snow. But the wind is

601
00:28:45,720 --> 00:28:48,120
Speaker 1: the biggest factor because it takes the ball out of

602
00:28:48,360 --> 00:28:50,880
Speaker 1: opposing quarterbacks hands. You don't want to put it into

603
00:28:50,880 --> 00:28:52,840
Speaker 1: play when it's over twenty miles an hour. And the

604
00:28:52,920 --> 00:28:55,480
Speaker 1: also factor in GUS. I think that's really short play.

605
00:28:55,640 --> 00:28:58,200
Speaker 1: I'm going to add that to my official card as

606
00:28:58,240 --> 00:28:59,400
Speaker 1: well here in Week.

607
00:28:59,320 --> 00:29:07,200
Speaker 2: Six, turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for

608
00:29:07,360 --> 00:29:08,880
Speaker 2: the money line parlay.

609
00:29:09,840 --> 00:29:12,600
Speaker 1: It's time for our G five underdog money line parlay,

610
00:29:12,680 --> 00:29:16,480
Speaker 1: presented by DraftKings. We're going to do one leg each year.

611
00:29:16,600 --> 00:29:18,680
Speaker 1: The payout is going to be a juicy plus six

612
00:29:18,880 --> 00:29:21,200
Speaker 1: forty five. This week, I'm going to get it started

613
00:29:21,240 --> 00:29:23,080
Speaker 1: with a little bit more of a modest play. It's

614
00:29:23,080 --> 00:29:24,880
Speaker 1: a game I already talked about at the top. I

615
00:29:24,960 --> 00:29:27,680
Speaker 1: like Western Kentucky as a short dog in Newark taken

616
00:29:27,720 --> 00:29:30,400
Speaker 1: on the Blue Hens plus one twenty six on the

617
00:29:30,400 --> 00:29:32,520
Speaker 1: money line. I think we're getting a discount because of

618
00:29:32,520 --> 00:29:35,680
Speaker 1: their travel. They went from Springfield, Missouri back to Delaware

619
00:29:35,760 --> 00:29:38,240
Speaker 1: in back to back weeks. By Tyson heldon He's in

620
00:29:38,280 --> 00:29:41,200
Speaker 1: his seventh year as a head coach, he knows travel routines,

621
00:29:41,240 --> 00:29:43,880
Speaker 1: he knows how to avoid traps, and Delaware has played

622
00:29:43,920 --> 00:29:46,040
Speaker 1: so well. I think they have the attention of the

623
00:29:46,200 --> 00:29:48,920
Speaker 1: entire conference at this point. So there's not going to

624
00:29:48,960 --> 00:29:51,200
Speaker 1: be any lookovers when it comes to the Blue Hens.

625
00:29:51,200 --> 00:29:53,920
Speaker 1: Even though they can't compete for a conference tale this year,

626
00:29:54,040 --> 00:29:56,720
Speaker 1: they certainly can play spoiler. And when I go back

627
00:29:56,720 --> 00:29:58,719
Speaker 1: to my numbers in the preseason, I had this at

628
00:29:58,720 --> 00:30:01,840
Speaker 1: about seven and a half for Western being the favorite.

629
00:30:01,960 --> 00:30:05,680
Speaker 1: For it to move that much because of Delaware's success offensively,

630
00:30:05,720 --> 00:30:07,880
Speaker 1: I think it's just a little bit much considering the

631
00:30:07,880 --> 00:30:10,520
Speaker 1: fact that Helton and this squad showed last year what

632
00:30:10,560 --> 00:30:13,240
Speaker 1: they could do on the road against well coached teams.

633
00:30:13,440 --> 00:30:17,120
Speaker 1: They beat Casey Keeler as an underdog last year, knocking

634
00:30:17,200 --> 00:30:19,480
Speaker 1: off Sam Houston who had a phenomenal season. They even

635
00:30:19,520 --> 00:30:22,200
Speaker 1: covered on the road as a dog up at Boston College.

636
00:30:22,440 --> 00:30:24,200
Speaker 1: So I like Helton to be a grown up here

637
00:30:24,280 --> 00:30:26,240
Speaker 1: to have them prepared to play their best. I know

638
00:30:26,320 --> 00:30:28,280
Speaker 1: it's a short week, you know, it's back to back travel.

639
00:30:28,360 --> 00:30:30,440
Speaker 1: But I think that's all baked in and why we're

640
00:30:30,440 --> 00:30:33,320
Speaker 1: getting value in the spot. And as I mentioned as well,

641
00:30:33,920 --> 00:30:37,080
Speaker 1: this is all about Maverick and Bowie against an average defense.

642
00:30:37,520 --> 00:30:40,480
Speaker 1: Offense at this point I think is not down as

643
00:30:40,520 --> 00:30:43,280
Speaker 1: far as some pundits would say on Western. I know

644
00:30:43,320 --> 00:30:46,360
Speaker 1: our expectations were sky high after the first week, but

645
00:30:46,920 --> 00:30:49,040
Speaker 1: just their point total, that's one thing. You also have

646
00:30:49,080 --> 00:30:51,160
Speaker 1: to look about how they moved the football this season.

647
00:30:51,320 --> 00:30:53,200
Speaker 1: They settled for a field goal last week on the

648
00:30:53,200 --> 00:30:55,880
Speaker 1: one yard line against Missouri State. If they punched that

649
00:30:55,960 --> 00:30:58,320
Speaker 1: in for a touchdown, they're over thirty points. They're winning

650
00:30:58,480 --> 00:31:01,400
Speaker 1: going away as opposed to a four quarter battle. And

651
00:31:01,520 --> 00:31:04,160
Speaker 1: they also executed a four minute offense to perfection that

652
00:31:04,200 --> 00:31:06,000
Speaker 1: basically played keep away at the end of that game,

653
00:31:06,120 --> 00:31:08,320
Speaker 1: So there was more points out there in terms of

654
00:31:08,400 --> 00:31:11,080
Speaker 1: yards gained, in terms of available yards, they were out

655
00:31:11,080 --> 00:31:13,400
Speaker 1: there gobbling them up. So I think it's all about

656
00:31:13,400 --> 00:31:16,240
Speaker 1: just avoiding that slow start. I mentioned. Delaware's first quarter

657
00:31:16,280 --> 00:31:18,880
Speaker 1: defense has been atrocious, one hundred and eighth in scoring

658
00:31:18,880 --> 00:31:21,400
Speaker 1: defense in the first fifteen minutes. I see these teams

659
00:31:21,400 --> 00:31:23,440
Speaker 1: getting off to a hot start at being a shootout.

660
00:31:23,520 --> 00:31:26,520
Speaker 1: But I'd rather go with Maverick against this Delaware defense

661
00:31:26,560 --> 00:31:29,160
Speaker 1: than Minikuchi against a Western defense that I think they're

662
00:31:29,160 --> 00:31:30,640
Speaker 1: going to be able to generate some sacks. They're going

663
00:31:30,680 --> 00:31:32,440
Speaker 1: to get to them enough, so I'll take the value

664
00:31:32,440 --> 00:31:35,480
Speaker 1: at plus one twenty six. All right, Douck, what is

665
00:31:35,600 --> 00:31:37,800
Speaker 1: your inclusion here? How do we get to plus six

666
00:31:37,960 --> 00:31:40,240
Speaker 1: forty five? It must be a little bit juicier than

667
00:31:40,240 --> 00:31:40,640
Speaker 1: my play.

668
00:31:41,480 --> 00:31:44,479
Speaker 4: Yeah, Army traveling to UAB, we've already seen the script

669
00:31:44,480 --> 00:31:47,200
Speaker 4: for UAB playing against a service academy when they went

670
00:31:47,240 --> 00:31:50,400
Speaker 4: to Navy on the road, gave them a really spirited

671
00:31:50,440 --> 00:31:53,760
Speaker 4: effort and kind of got thwarted a little bit by

672
00:31:53,760 --> 00:31:56,480
Speaker 4: the second half, multiple weather delays. But you look at

673
00:31:56,600 --> 00:31:59,000
Speaker 4: Army in the secondary, they're just a step behind, a

674
00:31:59,000 --> 00:32:02,960
Speaker 4: step slow. The rush is very minimal. This spot spells

675
00:32:03,080 --> 00:32:05,960
Speaker 4: big time trouble for Army. The second of back to

676
00:32:06,000 --> 00:32:09,040
Speaker 4: back roadies at East Carolina last week and now traveling

677
00:32:09,040 --> 00:32:13,080
Speaker 4: to UAB. We've seen Army numerous times over the last

678
00:32:13,160 --> 00:32:15,680
Speaker 4: couple of years throw up some major stinkers when they

679
00:32:15,680 --> 00:32:19,840
Speaker 4: go to the Southeast, whether it being at Troy, at Louisiana,

680
00:32:19,880 --> 00:32:23,160
Speaker 4: Monroe at ECU last week. They just don't play well

681
00:32:23,560 --> 00:32:26,720
Speaker 4: down there. Now you have a situational spot where UAB

682
00:32:27,000 --> 00:32:30,080
Speaker 4: is off of the by, and while it's not exactly

683
00:32:30,120 --> 00:32:33,880
Speaker 4: the same type of scheme, UAB has already seen a

684
00:32:33,880 --> 00:32:37,560
Speaker 4: triple option attack this year when they played against Navy.

685
00:32:38,360 --> 00:32:42,160
Speaker 4: You look at Army defensively, they've just been shredded against

686
00:32:42,160 --> 00:32:44,640
Speaker 4: the pass the last couple of weeks against North Texas

687
00:32:44,640 --> 00:32:48,040
Speaker 4: and ECU. Seventy percent completions given up, over five hundred

688
00:32:48,120 --> 00:32:51,520
Speaker 4: yards through the air surrendered and eight yards per pass attempt.

689
00:32:52,000 --> 00:32:56,560
Speaker 4: Army has the weakest pass rush gradeouts per PFF in

690
00:32:56,720 --> 00:32:59,640
Speaker 4: the conference and the third worst coverage grades. This is

691
00:32:59,680 --> 00:33:02,760
Speaker 4: going to be major, major trouble. Jalen Kittna is going

692
00:33:02,760 --> 00:33:05,520
Speaker 4: to torch this secondary as he really has everyone else

693
00:33:05,520 --> 00:33:08,840
Speaker 4: this season while completing seventy two percent throwing for three

694
00:33:08,920 --> 00:33:11,400
Speaker 4: hundred and twenty yards per game with eight touchdown passes.

695
00:33:11,880 --> 00:33:13,880
Speaker 4: And we just have said it all off season. We

696
00:33:13,920 --> 00:33:16,800
Speaker 4: took an Army regular season win total under it's just

697
00:33:16,920 --> 00:33:19,920
Speaker 4: not the same team as last year. They're lacking the

698
00:33:20,000 --> 00:33:24,560
Speaker 4: offensive punch, they're lacking sound decision making from the quarterback position,

699
00:33:25,000 --> 00:33:29,080
Speaker 4: and they're just far too reliant on full back dive

700
00:33:29,240 --> 00:33:31,640
Speaker 4: and then they run a QB follow off of that

701
00:33:31,760 --> 00:33:35,560
Speaker 4: with Dwayne Coleman and Cale Hellams, and they're just averaging

702
00:33:35,600 --> 00:33:37,920
Speaker 4: three and a half yards per carry combined. On the ground.

703
00:33:37,960 --> 00:33:40,520
Speaker 4: They don't have the punch, they don't have the explosivity.

704
00:33:40,920 --> 00:33:43,680
Speaker 4: I've already logged a play of UAB plus the points

705
00:33:43,720 --> 00:33:46,280
Speaker 4: in the app. They're gonna win this game on the field.

706
00:33:46,360 --> 00:33:48,560
Speaker 4: So this is why I'm adding them to the moneyline parlay.

707
00:33:49,000 --> 00:33:51,400
Speaker 1: If UAB wasn't a podcast prison for me, I would

708
00:33:51,440 --> 00:33:53,840
Speaker 1: be joining you on this moneyline play. At this point,

709
00:33:53,880 --> 00:33:56,040
Speaker 1: it's just me on the little phone receiver putting my

710
00:33:56,080 --> 00:33:58,440
Speaker 1: hand up to the glass. Trent Dilfer's on the other

711
00:33:58,480 --> 00:34:01,120
Speaker 1: side touching it, which as much get it to the window,

712
00:34:01,160 --> 00:34:03,480
Speaker 1: my man, one time, do something for that group of

713
00:34:03,480 --> 00:34:06,560
Speaker 1: five deep dive please, this is the spot to do it.

714
00:34:06,600 --> 00:34:09,440
Speaker 1: Everything you laid out, I don't have a single issue

715
00:34:09,640 --> 00:34:11,600
Speaker 1: with any of that. How about my side of it?

716
00:34:11,640 --> 00:34:13,480
Speaker 1: Do you like Western? Do you think they can go

717
00:34:13,560 --> 00:34:16,200
Speaker 1: into Newark and upset the Blue Hens? Do you think

718
00:34:16,200 --> 00:34:18,719
Speaker 1: it's getten a little too much of a shift from

719
00:34:18,719 --> 00:34:22,239
Speaker 1: preseason power rankings, considering the fact that you know, some

720
00:34:22,280 --> 00:34:24,040
Speaker 1: of the teams they played have not been great. I

721
00:34:24,040 --> 00:34:27,560
Speaker 1: mean Delaware State. You know, the FCS ranks better than anybody. Certainly,

722
00:34:27,600 --> 00:34:30,200
Speaker 1: that Yukon game was wild. They win in a shootout,

723
00:34:30,200 --> 00:34:31,960
Speaker 1: But is it enough to move it, at least by

724
00:34:32,040 --> 00:34:35,600
Speaker 1: my power rankings almost ten points from the preseason. Do

725
00:34:35,640 --> 00:34:37,400
Speaker 1: you agree that it's a little bit of an overreaction

726
00:34:37,440 --> 00:34:38,080
Speaker 1: from the market.

727
00:34:39,040 --> 00:34:41,560
Speaker 4: I think so. You look at Western Kentucky, who has

728
00:34:41,640 --> 00:34:46,160
Speaker 4: been a preseason top two pricing to win Conference USA.

729
00:34:46,160 --> 00:34:48,560
Speaker 4: They were the favorite for a couple of weeks, and

730
00:34:48,600 --> 00:34:50,479
Speaker 4: you know, they hear it, they see it, they see

731
00:34:50,480 --> 00:34:53,200
Speaker 4: the film, they see the mistakes offensively that they've made,

732
00:34:53,200 --> 00:34:55,600
Speaker 4: and this is a team that really has to get

733
00:34:55,640 --> 00:35:00,360
Speaker 4: better at executing offensively in the downfield, passing, can acting

734
00:35:00,360 --> 00:35:03,040
Speaker 4: on the deep shots. Look at who Western Kentucky has

735
00:35:03,080 --> 00:35:07,520
Speaker 4: coming down the pipe after this. They've got FIU Louisiana Tech.

736
00:35:07,960 --> 00:35:10,800
Speaker 4: I mean, they've got to start to get rolling because

737
00:35:10,840 --> 00:35:12,719
Speaker 4: these games are going to be really important for this

738
00:35:12,880 --> 00:35:14,920
Speaker 4: bunch to try to make a run at getting to

739
00:35:14,920 --> 00:35:17,440
Speaker 4: the Conference USA title game, which is a major, major

740
00:35:17,480 --> 00:35:20,319
Speaker 4: goal that Helton has set out for this team this year.

741
00:35:20,800 --> 00:35:22,799
Speaker 4: I just think it's going to look a little bit

742
00:35:22,840 --> 00:35:25,000
Speaker 4: different than we've seen the last couple of weeks. You

743
00:35:25,040 --> 00:35:28,160
Speaker 4: look at Nevada and Choate is a defensive coach. He

744
00:35:28,280 --> 00:35:30,040
Speaker 4: was able to scheme it up to provide a little

745
00:35:30,080 --> 00:35:33,120
Speaker 4: resistance to Western Kentucky. And then last week, you know,

746
00:35:33,200 --> 00:35:36,440
Speaker 4: it was a quirky travel spot. They had some offensive

747
00:35:36,480 --> 00:35:39,919
Speaker 4: success to Western Kentucky, but they just were so sea

748
00:35:39,960 --> 00:35:42,840
Speaker 4: to your pants. And then you had the backup quarterback

749
00:35:42,880 --> 00:35:46,000
Speaker 4: for Missouri State lead the drives in the second half.

750
00:35:46,080 --> 00:35:48,040
Speaker 4: That made that game a little closer than kind of

751
00:35:48,040 --> 00:35:50,719
Speaker 4: what it felt. And I just think that we're due

752
00:35:50,760 --> 00:35:53,799
Speaker 4: for the offensive explosion for Western Kentucky. They know what

753
00:35:53,840 --> 00:35:55,400
Speaker 4: they have to do. They know Delaware is going to

754
00:35:55,440 --> 00:35:58,080
Speaker 4: bring it offensively. This is going to be a track meet,

755
00:35:58,120 --> 00:36:00,040
Speaker 4: but they have got to get those weapons going on

756
00:36:00,120 --> 00:36:03,680
Speaker 4: the outside because they have several more important Conference USA

757
00:36:03,760 --> 00:36:05,600
Speaker 4: games coming down the pipe and they're going to need

758
00:36:05,600 --> 00:36:07,640
Speaker 4: to be sharp with that. So I think we'll see

759
00:36:07,719 --> 00:36:11,560
Speaker 4: crisp offensive execution. I think we'll see Maverick hit the

760
00:36:11,560 --> 00:36:14,640
Speaker 4: timing right. I think we'll see Matthew Henry get reinvolved

761
00:36:14,640 --> 00:36:17,400
Speaker 4: in the offense. And I think we'll see wk you

762
00:36:17,400 --> 00:36:18,280
Speaker 4: put up a big number.

763
00:36:19,360 --> 00:36:23,160
Speaker 1: So that's our G five Underdog moneyline parlay presented by DraftKings.

764
00:36:23,200 --> 00:36:25,920
Speaker 1: Head on over to DraftKings. Fire that in at plus

765
00:36:25,960 --> 00:36:29,600
Speaker 1: six forty five on the payout and check out the

766
00:36:29,640 --> 00:36:32,720
Speaker 1: Parlay Express account in the free award winning Action Network

767
00:36:32,760 --> 00:36:35,680
Speaker 1: app or we'll be posting this G five moneyline parlay.

768
00:36:35,719 --> 00:36:37,680
Speaker 1: You'll find a bunch of other fun long shot bets

769
00:36:37,880 --> 00:36:40,279
Speaker 1: and parlays in there as well. You can also find

770
00:36:40,280 --> 00:36:42,400
Speaker 1: a quick slip link of the podcast in video description

771
00:36:42,560 --> 00:36:44,840
Speaker 1: or visit Action network dot com slash. But now to

772
00:36:44,880 --> 00:36:46,839
Speaker 1: find and tail some of the best we've discussed thus

773
00:36:46,840 --> 00:36:49,720
Speaker 1: far in the episode, all right, two minute drill time

774
00:36:50,160 --> 00:36:54,040
Speaker 1: for you, Duck, that means some FCS football. If you're listening,

775
00:36:54,239 --> 00:36:57,520
Speaker 1: open up your sportsbook app because as soon as these

776
00:36:57,600 --> 00:37:01,480
Speaker 1: plays leave Duck's lips where Ducks bills at this point,

777
00:37:01,520 --> 00:37:03,560
Speaker 1: the market's gonna move. He is a market mover in

778
00:37:03,680 --> 00:37:07,080
Speaker 1: FCS football. So let's get started. Get those fingers ready.

779
00:37:07,080 --> 00:37:08,120
Speaker 1: What he got for us?

780
00:37:09,160 --> 00:37:11,479
Speaker 4: Yeah, So we're gonna start with Monmouth and Delaware State.

781
00:37:11,520 --> 00:37:14,200
Speaker 4: The projected total is sixty seven and a half. Monmouth,

782
00:37:14,239 --> 00:37:16,440
Speaker 4: with their style of play, it's just so conducive to

783
00:37:16,520 --> 00:37:19,760
Speaker 4: high flying affairs. They are averaging seven point four yards

784
00:37:19,760 --> 00:37:23,080
Speaker 4: per play offensively, and they have an electric quarterback and

785
00:37:23,120 --> 00:37:26,080
Speaker 4: Derrek Robertson who's thrown for sixteen hundred and seventy seven

786
00:37:26,160 --> 00:37:30,200
Speaker 4: yards with eighteen passing touchdowns already this young season. The

787
00:37:30,280 --> 00:37:33,239
Speaker 4: Delaware State Hornets have found themselves in high scoring games

788
00:37:33,239 --> 00:37:36,359
Speaker 4: against Sacred Heart and Albany already this season, and this

789
00:37:36,480 --> 00:37:39,959
Speaker 4: defense could get absolutely torched here. On the other side,

790
00:37:39,960 --> 00:37:43,120
Speaker 4: Delaware State quarterback Caden Bennett has thrown and ran the

791
00:37:43,160 --> 00:37:45,440
Speaker 4: ball really well. He's a very talented player in the

792
00:37:45,480 --> 00:37:48,560
Speaker 4: MIAC and they should move it against the Hawks defense,

793
00:37:48,560 --> 00:37:51,440
Speaker 4: which is giving up seven yards per play and five

794
00:37:51,520 --> 00:37:55,359
Speaker 4: hundred and five yards per game this season. Monmouth could

795
00:37:55,400 --> 00:37:57,600
Speaker 4: throw up a fifty spot here in Delaware State will

796
00:37:57,600 --> 00:37:59,759
Speaker 4: hang around and put up twenty eight to thirty one here.

797
00:37:59,800 --> 00:38:02,239
Speaker 4: This should soar over the total. Any number in the

798
00:38:02,280 --> 00:38:05,160
Speaker 4: sixties play The over next one I'm looking at is

799
00:38:05,200 --> 00:38:08,440
Speaker 4: Southern Illinois. The projected spread is about sixteen and a

800
00:38:08,520 --> 00:38:12,120
Speaker 4: half Illinois State. Excuse me, Indiana State is in just

801
00:38:12,200 --> 00:38:15,160
Speaker 4: such a bad way right now. Lacking talent, They've got

802
00:38:15,200 --> 00:38:18,920
Speaker 4: a mediocre backup quarterback, and the defense has given up

803
00:38:18,920 --> 00:38:21,800
Speaker 4: one hundred and thirty six combined points and thirteen hundred

804
00:38:21,800 --> 00:38:24,839
Speaker 4: and twenty seven yards the last two weeks. The Sycamores

805
00:38:24,920 --> 00:38:28,279
Speaker 4: just cannot convert the third down or sustained drives. I

806
00:38:28,320 --> 00:38:31,440
Speaker 4: look for SIU quarterback DJ Williams to just add to

807
00:38:31,480 --> 00:38:34,759
Speaker 4: his impressive stat line of sixty nine percent completions, nine

808
00:38:34,880 --> 00:38:37,840
Speaker 4: hundred and eighty eight yards and nine touchdowns. Southern Illinois

809
00:38:37,880 --> 00:38:40,880
Speaker 4: is excellent at staying on the field, converting third downs,

810
00:38:40,920 --> 00:38:43,279
Speaker 4: and they're excellent in the red zone. I project this

811
00:38:43,360 --> 00:38:45,120
Speaker 4: number at sixteen and a half. I'd lay up to

812
00:38:45,120 --> 00:38:48,160
Speaker 4: twenty here with Southern Illinois. Last one is Nickels State

813
00:38:48,200 --> 00:38:51,120
Speaker 4: and Lamar under their projected total, which is forty six

814
00:38:51,200 --> 00:38:54,320
Speaker 4: and a half. The offensive numbers for Nickels this season

815
00:38:54,400 --> 00:38:57,320
Speaker 4: are off the charts bad four point three yards per play,

816
00:38:57,680 --> 00:39:00,400
Speaker 4: two hundred and fifty four yards per game on all offense,

817
00:39:00,440 --> 00:39:03,960
Speaker 4: and just six total touchdowns registered in five games. Offensively,

818
00:39:04,440 --> 00:39:06,799
Speaker 4: they are seventeen for sixty eight on third down, which

819
00:39:06,840 --> 00:39:09,920
Speaker 4: is bad, and only one of ten red zone trips

820
00:39:09,920 --> 00:39:13,600
Speaker 4: have resulted in paydirt. Lamar is also a mess offensively,

821
00:39:13,640 --> 00:39:16,359
Speaker 4: averaging four yards per play and two hundred and thirty

822
00:39:16,360 --> 00:39:20,160
Speaker 4: seven yards per game twenty six percent third down conversion

823
00:39:20,200 --> 00:39:23,720
Speaker 4: success for Lamar this season. They're two to one ratio,

824
00:39:23,920 --> 00:39:27,520
Speaker 4: run heavy, and they're averaging just ninety six passing yards

825
00:39:27,520 --> 00:39:29,879
Speaker 4: per game. This is going to be a complete rock fight.

826
00:39:30,280 --> 00:39:33,080
Speaker 4: We're going to see slow pace, no explosives, a low

827
00:39:33,160 --> 00:39:37,000
Speaker 4: scoring grinder. Anything over forty four and a half. We're

828
00:39:37,000 --> 00:39:37,600
Speaker 4: going to play the.

829
00:39:37,600 --> 00:39:40,040
Speaker 1: Under all right. I talked a lot of shit at

830
00:39:40,080 --> 00:39:41,880
Speaker 1: the opening about no one being able to run a

831
00:39:41,920 --> 00:39:44,480
Speaker 1: two minute hurry up offense. So I'm on the clock here.

832
00:39:44,840 --> 00:39:47,279
Speaker 1: Let's see if I can back up those words with

833
00:39:47,760 --> 00:39:50,279
Speaker 1: some quick decision making here. All right, New Mexico at

834
00:39:50,320 --> 00:39:51,800
Speaker 1: San Jose State, I'm going to lay the two and

835
00:39:51,840 --> 00:39:53,920
Speaker 1: a half with the Spartans. I have more to say

836
00:39:53,920 --> 00:39:55,480
Speaker 1: about the next two plays, so I'll keep this one

837
00:39:55,520 --> 00:39:58,080
Speaker 1: short and sweet. Santose State is four points away from

838
00:39:58,080 --> 00:40:00,280
Speaker 1: being three to one instead of one and three. Offense

839
00:40:00,280 --> 00:40:02,600
Speaker 1: can absolutely cook with Egot slinging in around the yard.

840
00:40:02,719 --> 00:40:04,960
Speaker 1: They found replacements at least in the aggregate for Nick

841
00:40:05,040 --> 00:40:07,600
Speaker 1: Nash in that receiving corps, and with a veteran coach

842
00:40:07,680 --> 00:40:10,480
Speaker 1: like Ken Neamatalolo. He can sell this locker room on

843
00:40:10,560 --> 00:40:13,000
Speaker 1: being O and O back to a clean slate the

844
00:40:13,239 --> 00:40:16,040
Speaker 1: Mountain West portion of their schedule starting up. This is

845
00:40:16,080 --> 00:40:18,640
Speaker 1: the opportunity to turn this season around the Lobos. By

846
00:40:18,640 --> 00:40:20,920
Speaker 1: the way, their three wins have come over team have

847
00:40:21,000 --> 00:40:23,480
Speaker 1: come against teams ranked one hundred and eighty, nine hundred

848
00:40:23,480 --> 00:40:25,279
Speaker 1: and fifty seventh, and one hundred and seventh in S

849
00:40:25,320 --> 00:40:28,319
Speaker 1: and P plus. So it's a nice story happening in Albuquerque.

850
00:40:28,320 --> 00:40:30,160
Speaker 1: But let's pump the brakes on the Lobos being a

851
00:40:30,160 --> 00:40:32,920
Speaker 1: really good football team. San Jose State was a preseason

852
00:40:32,920 --> 00:40:35,080
Speaker 1: threat to win this conference. I still think that they are.

853
00:40:35,160 --> 00:40:37,000
Speaker 1: They haven't fallen apart. I'm going to lay the two

854
00:40:37,000 --> 00:40:39,520
Speaker 1: and a half, all right, Boise Notre Dame over sixty

855
00:40:39,560 --> 00:40:42,480
Speaker 1: two and a half. Let's talk Notre Dames offensive coordinator

856
00:40:42,520 --> 00:40:45,239
Speaker 1: and play caller Mike Denbrock. He knows how to build

857
00:40:45,280 --> 00:40:47,400
Speaker 1: an offense around the quarterback that he has, and he

858
00:40:47,520 --> 00:40:50,239
Speaker 1: has to have to adjust year over year, losing the

859
00:40:50,280 --> 00:40:53,400
Speaker 1: ground and pound with Riley Leonard and the phenomenal defense

860
00:40:53,440 --> 00:40:55,799
Speaker 1: to be able to play keep away to a certain degree.

861
00:40:55,840 --> 00:40:58,000
Speaker 1: But the defense was always there to save his Bacon

862
00:40:58,280 --> 00:41:00,520
Speaker 1: this year, he's changed things. Let's just look at the

863
00:41:00,520 --> 00:41:02,880
Speaker 1: play calling. Last year, Notre Dame was eighty eighth in

864
00:41:03,000 --> 00:41:05,600
Speaker 1: passing play rate. They're all the way up to eighty

865
00:41:05,680 --> 00:41:07,680
Speaker 1: fifth this year. On paper, that seems like not a

866
00:41:07,680 --> 00:41:09,359
Speaker 1: big deal at all, but when you dig a little

867
00:41:09,400 --> 00:41:11,799
Speaker 1: bit deeper, the A dot and yards per attempt are

868
00:41:11,800 --> 00:41:14,880
Speaker 1: completely different. Leonards seven point five A dot with the

869
00:41:14,880 --> 00:41:18,120
Speaker 1: seven point one yards per attempt that's ninetieth and seventieth

870
00:41:18,280 --> 00:41:22,120
Speaker 1: perspectively among qualifying quarterbacks. In twenty twenty four, CJ. CARRSA

871
00:41:22,239 --> 00:41:24,680
Speaker 1: dot is nine point four and even higher yards per

872
00:41:24,719 --> 00:41:29,000
Speaker 1: attempt average of over ten that's thirty fourth and fourth nationally.

873
00:41:29,360 --> 00:41:32,120
Speaker 1: What that means is that this offense is going to

874
00:41:32,200 --> 00:41:35,080
Speaker 1: create explosive plays, and that's great for this over because

875
00:41:35,080 --> 00:41:37,040
Speaker 1: they're up against the defense that is one hundred and

876
00:41:37,080 --> 00:41:40,400
Speaker 1: thirty fourth and explosives allowed. Boise has been shredded by

877
00:41:40,400 --> 00:41:42,479
Speaker 1: the big play, both on the ground and through the air.

878
00:41:42,719 --> 00:41:45,880
Speaker 1: Car Love and Price will land a makers for four quarters.

879
00:41:46,040 --> 00:41:47,759
Speaker 1: On the other side of things, I mentioned Notre Dame's

880
00:41:47,800 --> 00:41:49,880
Speaker 1: defense last season. While they fallen off a cliff with

881
00:41:49,960 --> 00:41:52,680
Speaker 1: Chris ash as their new DC from the elite ranks

882
00:41:52,719 --> 00:41:54,960
Speaker 1: to I don't know an advanced stat sheet that's just

883
00:41:55,000 --> 00:41:57,560
Speaker 1: bleeding red one hundred and thirty fifth in havoc outside

884
00:41:57,560 --> 00:41:59,920
Speaker 1: the top one hundred in success rate allowed both on

885
00:42:00,080 --> 00:42:01,839
Speaker 1: the ground and through the air. And I know that boys,

886
00:42:01,880 --> 00:42:03,839
Speaker 1: he doesn't have genty anymore. But the running back by

887
00:42:03,920 --> 00:42:07,040
Speaker 1: committee approach is working. And one thing I'll say about

888
00:42:07,040 --> 00:42:09,560
Speaker 1: Maddox Mattson. Last year, when you dug into some of

889
00:42:09,600 --> 00:42:11,960
Speaker 1: his advanced SATs, it was a bit ugly. But this year,

890
00:42:12,000 --> 00:42:14,200
Speaker 1: when he's firing from a clean pocket and he has

891
00:42:14,200 --> 00:42:17,080
Speaker 1: time to improvise, he's making big plays in a clean

892
00:42:17,120 --> 00:42:19,520
Speaker 1: pocket or with no pressure. Nine big time throws already

893
00:42:19,520 --> 00:42:22,160
Speaker 1: this season against just four turnover where he plays. He's

894
00:42:22,160 --> 00:42:23,919
Speaker 1: coming off the best game of his career against app

895
00:42:23,960 --> 00:42:26,359
Speaker 1: State Boise as an underdog, by the way, since twenty

896
00:42:26,400 --> 00:42:29,920
Speaker 1: twenty three. In those seven games, five and two to

897
00:42:30,000 --> 00:42:32,239
Speaker 1: the over. So I think this is an opportunity to

898
00:42:32,280 --> 00:42:34,759
Speaker 1: play another high scoring game here. They're going to play loose,

899
00:42:34,760 --> 00:42:36,520
Speaker 1: they're going to let it fly. I think there's going

900
00:42:36,600 --> 00:42:38,520
Speaker 1: to be They're gonna both be a live dog in

901
00:42:38,560 --> 00:42:40,279
Speaker 1: South Mandon. There's gonna be a lot of points all right,

902
00:42:40,360 --> 00:42:43,239
Speaker 1: let's close things out here. Eastern Michigan against Buffalo under

903
00:42:43,360 --> 00:42:45,319
Speaker 1: fifty four and a half. This number is bubbled up.

904
00:42:45,360 --> 00:42:47,000
Speaker 1: I love it. I played it at fifty two and

905
00:42:47,040 --> 00:42:48,760
Speaker 1: a half. I'll play it at fifty four and a half.

906
00:42:49,080 --> 00:42:51,399
Speaker 1: Tai Kwan Roberson, he's out of his boot. But does

907
00:42:51,440 --> 00:42:53,360
Speaker 1: that mean he's going to be able to fully utilize

908
00:42:53,360 --> 00:42:56,440
Speaker 1: his skill set, which are his legs in this mashup?

909
00:42:56,719 --> 00:42:59,560
Speaker 1: Time will tell. He just isn't consistent as a passer, though,

910
00:42:59,560 --> 00:43:01,319
Speaker 1: so if they can keep him in the pocket, I

911
00:43:01,320 --> 00:43:03,160
Speaker 1: think that's going to be a real issue for the Bulls.

912
00:43:03,200 --> 00:43:06,040
Speaker 1: His play caller, Dave Padenod, has been someone who's protected

913
00:43:06,080 --> 00:43:08,319
Speaker 1: him at times this year, and the big reason is

914
00:43:08,360 --> 00:43:10,759
Speaker 1: that you can look at a few different stats and

915
00:43:11,080 --> 00:43:12,719
Speaker 1: find it difficult to nail down who he is as

916
00:43:12,719 --> 00:43:15,080
Speaker 1: a quarterback. His a dot is off the charts eleven

917
00:43:15,120 --> 00:43:18,000
Speaker 1: point six. That is tenth nationally. But when you look

918
00:43:18,040 --> 00:43:22,360
Speaker 1: at his accuracy on throws downfield, he's completely scattershot. Passes

919
00:43:22,400 --> 00:43:24,360
Speaker 1: ten to nineteen yards downfield just two for nine of

920
00:43:24,400 --> 00:43:27,000
Speaker 1: the season, twenty plus yards downfield nine for twenty four.

921
00:43:27,080 --> 00:43:30,400
Speaker 1: That's a completion percentage of thirty three percent on anything

922
00:43:30,440 --> 00:43:32,680
Speaker 1: beyond ten yards, So what does that mean. I think

923
00:43:32,719 --> 00:43:34,880
Speaker 1: Eastern is going to walk up some of their defenders

924
00:43:34,880 --> 00:43:36,920
Speaker 1: into the box and be able to battle against this

925
00:43:36,960 --> 00:43:40,080
Speaker 1: Buffalo run offense. I still like the Buffalo defense. By

926
00:43:40,080 --> 00:43:41,319
Speaker 1: the way, on the other side of this is two

927
00:43:41,320 --> 00:43:43,400
Speaker 1: to tango on a total. I think they're going to

928
00:43:43,400 --> 00:43:45,439
Speaker 1: be able to put this EMU offense in a box.

929
00:43:45,480 --> 00:43:47,640
Speaker 1: They're solid across the board, but they have a really

930
00:43:47,680 --> 00:43:49,680
Speaker 1: great pass rush. So if they get the lead and

931
00:43:49,719 --> 00:43:51,680
Speaker 1: Eastern has to throw the ball, I think they're going

932
00:43:51,680 --> 00:43:53,680
Speaker 1: to get home. They've already got home seventeen times in

933
00:43:53,719 --> 00:43:55,719
Speaker 1: the year in terms of sacks, that's fourth most in

934
00:43:55,760 --> 00:43:58,360
Speaker 1: the entire country, and Eastern has just been dreadful and

935
00:43:58,400 --> 00:44:00,879
Speaker 1: passing down situations one hundredth and success right there.

936
00:44:00,920 --> 00:44:01,319
Speaker 4: I'm going to.

937
00:44:01,320 --> 00:44:03,840
Speaker 1: Close this out with this fact. The last game Central

938
00:44:03,840 --> 00:44:06,400
Speaker 1: Michigan against Eastern Michigan, I think it's going to be

939
00:44:06,480 --> 00:44:09,720
Speaker 1: a very similar game. Script CMU won twenty four to thirteen,

940
00:44:09,960 --> 00:44:12,800
Speaker 1: but after the first twenty minutes of that game, Eastern

941
00:44:12,880 --> 00:44:15,040
Speaker 1: held the Chips to just three the rest of the way.

942
00:44:15,239 --> 00:44:17,480
Speaker 1: So I see them mucking this one up, making their

943
00:44:17,520 --> 00:44:20,680
Speaker 1: defensive adjustments and keeping this game under the number of

944
00:44:20,719 --> 00:44:23,439
Speaker 1: fifty four and a half. All right, we raced through.

945
00:44:23,480 --> 00:44:25,160
Speaker 1: We got a lot of plays in there, which leads

946
00:44:25,200 --> 00:44:27,640
Speaker 1: us to the end of today's episode, which is our

947
00:44:27,760 --> 00:44:31,799
Speaker 1: season long tug of war between Duck and myself. That's it, boy,

948
00:44:32,080 --> 00:44:34,799
Speaker 1: toun hard harder. We've both gone on some runs here,

949
00:44:34,880 --> 00:44:36,560
Speaker 1: back to back winners for Duck. He's now at my

950
00:44:36,640 --> 00:44:38,799
Speaker 1: four yard line. We're gonna go back to a game

951
00:44:38,800 --> 00:44:40,440
Speaker 1: that we've already hit on a little bit, and it's

952
00:44:40,480 --> 00:44:43,600
Speaker 1: air Force at Navy the Midshipman laying eleven and a

953
00:44:43,680 --> 00:44:46,839
Speaker 1: half in Annapolis. I'm gonna go ahead and take air

954
00:44:46,840 --> 00:44:49,560
Speaker 1: Force plus the points. The Midies as a double digit

955
00:44:49,640 --> 00:44:52,400
Speaker 1: favorite last two years, just four and four against the spread.

956
00:44:52,400 --> 00:44:54,920
Speaker 1: They've beating the hell out of a super manageable slate

957
00:44:55,280 --> 00:44:58,640
Speaker 1: for the past eighteen months, but oddsmakers continually find a

958
00:44:58,640 --> 00:45:01,200
Speaker 1: way to even the playing field throwing points at the

959
00:45:01,239 --> 00:45:03,920
Speaker 1: dogs that they're playing. Mission accomplished for the sportsbook, a

960
00:45:03,920 --> 00:45:06,640
Speaker 1: five hundred record there against the closing number. But my

961
00:45:06,680 --> 00:45:08,960
Speaker 1: focus here, as I mentioned before, is the Navy defense.

962
00:45:09,360 --> 00:45:11,719
Speaker 1: They faced one functional offense the entire season. That was

963
00:45:11,800 --> 00:45:15,120
Speaker 1: UAB the Blazers scored twenty four first half points against them.

964
00:45:15,200 --> 00:45:16,919
Speaker 1: There was all kinds of issues in the second half.

965
00:45:16,920 --> 00:45:19,640
Speaker 1: With two lightning stoppages, they get a huge break there,

966
00:45:19,800 --> 00:45:22,000
Speaker 1: but the big plays will be available to air Force

967
00:45:22,040 --> 00:45:23,840
Speaker 1: when they turn to the air. Yes, this is a

968
00:45:23,840 --> 00:45:26,800
Speaker 1: flexbone offense, but as I mentioned earlier, pistol the shotgun,

969
00:45:26,920 --> 00:45:29,640
Speaker 1: You're going to see some sophisticated passing concepts that are

970
00:45:29,640 --> 00:45:31,839
Speaker 1: going to give Navy some issues here. And finally, it's

971
00:45:31,840 --> 00:45:34,239
Speaker 1: going to require some turnover regression to get this done.

972
00:45:34,360 --> 00:45:36,239
Speaker 1: But air Force has been snake bit on the season

973
00:45:36,360 --> 00:45:39,759
Speaker 1: ninety third and turnover margin, whereas Navy has fumbled it

974
00:45:39,880 --> 00:45:42,399
Speaker 1: six times this year. They've lost just one of those

975
00:45:42,560 --> 00:45:45,360
Speaker 1: we saw last year against Notre Dame. Everything can cave in,

976
00:45:45,400 --> 00:45:47,240
Speaker 1: the roof can cave in on them when they start

977
00:45:47,239 --> 00:45:49,879
Speaker 1: turning the ball over. So I'm hoping that air Force

978
00:45:49,880 --> 00:45:52,200
Speaker 1: can be plus one, maybe plus two, and the turnover

979
00:45:52,239 --> 00:45:55,479
Speaker 1: battle make this a four quarter affair. All right, Duck,

980
00:45:55,680 --> 00:45:58,280
Speaker 1: you are on the home team here, land the points.

981
00:45:58,520 --> 00:46:01,759
Speaker 1: Walk me through new and his midshipmen.

982
00:46:02,880 --> 00:46:05,480
Speaker 4: You know, I think when you look at Air Force

983
00:46:05,640 --> 00:46:09,680
Speaker 4: and this the leaky nature of their defense. No Number

984
00:46:09,920 --> 00:46:12,840
Speaker 4: is safe with their propensity to just give it up

985
00:46:12,880 --> 00:46:15,320
Speaker 4: in the second half. They just don't have it in

986
00:46:15,360 --> 00:46:17,919
Speaker 4: the defensive trench. This season, we thought again we would

987
00:46:17,920 --> 00:46:20,080
Speaker 4: see a little bit of continuation from the magic we

988
00:46:20,120 --> 00:46:22,160
Speaker 4: saw the last four games last season, and it just

989
00:46:22,200 --> 00:46:25,280
Speaker 4: doesn't seem to be there defensively. And I can see

990
00:46:25,400 --> 00:46:29,600
Speaker 4: Navy in the second half slamming the brakes on the pace,

991
00:46:30,000 --> 00:46:33,000
Speaker 4: grinding this game down four yards at a time, and

992
00:46:33,200 --> 00:46:37,120
Speaker 4: just out possessing air Force, punching one in late, forcing

993
00:46:37,160 --> 00:46:40,120
Speaker 4: Air Force into a stop don down situation, and just

994
00:46:40,239 --> 00:46:42,440
Speaker 4: not giving it back and then you're outside of the

995
00:46:42,520 --> 00:46:44,319
Speaker 4: number and there's no way to get the ball back

996
00:46:44,320 --> 00:46:47,120
Speaker 4: and get back in. So I think it'll be interesting

997
00:46:47,120 --> 00:46:49,279
Speaker 4: to see how this second half plays out, as the

998
00:46:49,320 --> 00:46:51,720
Speaker 4: air Force second half's all season have been high flying

999
00:46:51,719 --> 00:46:54,120
Speaker 4: and high scoring, and I just don't know that Navy

1000
00:46:54,200 --> 00:46:56,279
Speaker 4: wants to get involved with that. I think they'd rather

1001
00:46:57,040 --> 00:46:59,600
Speaker 4: secure a lead, possess the ball, and get the heck

1002
00:46:59,640 --> 00:47:01,000
Speaker 4: out of there with a win. And I think they

1003
00:47:01,040 --> 00:47:03,520
Speaker 4: can win this game by two touchdowns. So I'll lay

1004
00:47:03,520 --> 00:47:04,399
Speaker 4: it with the midies here.

1005
00:47:06,080 --> 00:47:07,879
Speaker 1: That'll do it. For today's episode, The group of five

1006
00:47:07,920 --> 00:47:11,040
Speaker 1: Deep Dive under the Big Bets on Campus banner presented

1007
00:47:11,080 --> 00:47:13,640
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1008
00:47:13,680 --> 00:47:15,719
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1009
00:47:15,800 --> 00:47:18,080
Speaker 1: leave us a five star rating and review wherever you

1010
00:47:18,120 --> 00:47:21,319
Speaker 1: listen to the podcast. I am overdue for a five

1011
00:47:21,360 --> 00:47:24,799
Speaker 1: star review, so please give them to us. Throw out

1012
00:47:24,800 --> 00:47:27,080
Speaker 1: a comment for a duck or myself. It could be

1013
00:47:27,080 --> 00:47:28,560
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1014
00:47:28,600 --> 00:47:30,319
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1015
00:47:30,320 --> 00:47:32,880
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1016
00:47:32,880 --> 00:47:36,319
Speaker 1: from the Heisman Trophy, Conference winner, national championship, whatever you

1017
00:47:36,360 --> 00:47:38,080
Speaker 1: want it to be. Hit me up on X and

1018
00:47:38,080 --> 00:47:39,920
Speaker 1: I'll get you set up with your prize. Remember, if

1019
00:47:39,960 --> 00:47:41,279
Speaker 1: you'd like to tell some of the bests we talked

1020
00:47:41,280 --> 00:47:43,439
Speaker 1: about in today's episode, look for the quick slip link

1021
00:47:43,480 --> 00:47:45,399
Speaker 1: in the episode description. You can also go to Action

1022
00:47:45,440 --> 00:47:48,320
Speaker 1: network dot com slash that now. If you haven't already,

1023
00:47:48,400 --> 00:47:51,960
Speaker 1: please subscribe to our YouTube channel search for BBOC and

1024
00:47:52,040 --> 00:47:54,160
Speaker 1: you'll get access to all of our college football concept

1025
00:47:54,360 --> 00:47:56,520
Speaker 1: throughout the fall. Check out our guys Stucky on the

1026
00:47:56,520 --> 00:47:59,680
Speaker 1: Favorites every Tuesday, Thursday and Sunday. Also check out his

1027
00:47:59,719 --> 00:48:03,839
Speaker 1: main show every Thursday with Colin and himself. They run

1028
00:48:03,880 --> 00:48:07,640
Speaker 1: through the entire card, from the absolute top matchups all

1029
00:48:07,680 --> 00:48:10,200
Speaker 1: the way down to the trash. It's always a fun listen,

1030
00:48:10,320 --> 00:48:12,719
Speaker 1: so make sure to throw them some love as well

1031
00:48:12,760 --> 00:48:14,799
Speaker 1: in the reviews. Thanks for listening to the Big Bets

1032
00:48:14,840 --> 00:48:18,160
Speaker 1: on Campus podcast and as always, best of luck with

1033
00:48:18,200 --> 00:48:18,800
Speaker 1: all your bets.

1034
00:48:34,680 --> 00:48:39,200
Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1035
00:48:39,239 --> 00:48:42,000
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1036
00:48:42,040 --> 00:48:45,200
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