WEBVTT - Pakistan Is Getting Too Expensive For Its Middle Class – So They’re Leaving

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>When Asad Ijazbat was growing up, he was ambitious. He

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<v Speaker 2>left his home country of Pakistan to attend college in Canada.

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<v Speaker 2>He graduated with honors and got a job there as

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<v Speaker 2>a management consultant. But in twenty fifteen, when Asad was

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<v Speaker 2>in his mid twenties, he made a decision that surprised people.

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<v Speaker 3>Close to him.

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<v Speaker 1>I left everything.

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<v Speaker 3>He gave up his.

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<v Speaker 2>Job in Canada to move back to Pakistan.

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<v Speaker 1>I was one of the few young Pakistanis who had

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<v Speaker 1>a career in North America. A lot of Pakistanis found

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<v Speaker 1>it very surprising that somebody who was settled in a

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<v Speaker 1>country like Canada went back to work in Pakistan.

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<v Speaker 2>When Asad got back to Pakistan, he got a job

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<v Speaker 2>in the government, working under two finance ministers. It was

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<v Speaker 2>considered a well paid and prestigious job inside Pakistan, and

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<v Speaker 2>Asad was glad to be able to do something that

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<v Speaker 2>felt like giving back.

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<v Speaker 1>I had a passion to do something for my country,

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<v Speaker 1>for my people.

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<v Speaker 2>For almost a decade later, that passion began to fade.

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<v Speaker 2>The prices of things Assad needed to live every day

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<v Speaker 2>were rising, and he started to feel like his salary

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<v Speaker 2>wasn't keeping up.

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<v Speaker 1>My wife was earning in Pakistan. I was earning in Pakistan.

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<v Speaker 1>But yet I think over time, both of us are

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<v Speaker 1>salaries to lump together. Could not afford the higher rental prices,

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<v Speaker 1>the high fuel prices.

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<v Speaker 2>Asad took on more work, one side gig after another.

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<v Speaker 1>I had to do three jobs. At one point, I

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<v Speaker 1>started feeling that my health was badly effective because on

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of these days I was working more than

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<v Speaker 1>fifteen hours a day and perhaps more than eighty hours

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<v Speaker 1>a week.

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<v Speaker 2>But Asad still didn't feel it was enough to keep

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<v Speaker 2>up with his expenses, and he was starting to feel

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<v Speaker 2>like he needed to make a bigger change.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, this feeling kept growing that I have to

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<v Speaker 1>put bread on my table. I was entering my thirties.

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<v Speaker 1>I got married. Also, I had more responsibilities, and I

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<v Speaker 1>had to take the tough decision very painstakingly to come

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<v Speaker 1>back to the life I was living before twenty.

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<v Speaker 2>Fifteen, Asat decided to look for opportunities outside of Pakistan.

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<v Speaker 2>He applied for scholarships to get a PhD, and he

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<v Speaker 2>got one in the US. He moved to Boston in

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<v Speaker 2>twenty twenty three. Assad is just one of a growing

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<v Speaker 2>number of Pakistanis who feel like life is getting harder

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<v Speaker 2>and harder inside the country.

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<v Speaker 4>Priceres and taxis are going up in Pakistan and people

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<v Speaker 4>feel more trapped. Everyone is much more poorer.

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<v Speaker 2>That's Bloomberg's Pakistan bureau chief Fussy Mongy, who's based in Karachi.

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<v Speaker 4>Last year, Pakistan recorded the highest outlaw in seven years.

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<v Speaker 4>This is according to RISE data from United Nations. The

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<v Speaker 4>exodus was most pronounced among skilled and educated. In twenty

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<v Speaker 4>twenty three, the number of doctors, engineers, accountants and managers

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<v Speaker 4>who left Pakistan doubled to sixty thousand. That makes Pakistan

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<v Speaker 4>one of the top ten countries for immigration.

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<v Speaker 2>Welcome to The Big Take Asia from Bloomberg News. I'm

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<v Speaker 2>Rebecca Cheung Wilkins. Every week we take you inside some

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<v Speaker 2>of the world's biggest and most powerful economies and the

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<v Speaker 2>market's tycoons and businesses that drive this ever shifting region.

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<v Speaker 2>Today on the show, one of the world's most populous

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<v Speaker 2>nations is facing a.

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<v Speaker 3>Severe brain drain.

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<v Speaker 2>Why are so many educated workers leaving and where are

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<v Speaker 2>they going? And what does this mean for Pakistan's already

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<v Speaker 2>fragile economy. Migration from Pakistan is not a new phenomenon,

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<v Speaker 2>but Bloomberg's Fuzzy Mongy told us that in twenty twenty

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<v Speaker 2>two things started to get really bad. More than eight

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<v Speaker 2>hundred thousand people left Pakistan that year.

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<v Speaker 4>So it started about two years ago. Pakistan has been

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<v Speaker 4>going through its biggest economic storm in its history in

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<v Speaker 4>the past two three years, so a lot of people

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<v Speaker 4>lost a lot of hope. It became tougher to make

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<v Speaker 4>ends meet, so people started looking outside of Pakistan.

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<v Speaker 2>One item that many households are struggling to afford is electricity.

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<v Speaker 2>Fuzzy says that for some people, their electricity bill is

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<v Speaker 2>almost as high.

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<v Speaker 3>As their rent.

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<v Speaker 2>Let's just pause for a second and imagine that your

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<v Speaker 2>electricity bill being as much as your rent, and that

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<v Speaker 2>means people can hardly save.

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<v Speaker 3>If at all.

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<v Speaker 4>Electricity bill would be the biggest component of expenses. People

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<v Speaker 4>also go to the utility companies and be like, hey,

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<v Speaker 4>you know, we got this bill, can you like cut

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<v Speaker 4>it down into smaller installments so we can pay it

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<v Speaker 4>over six months or nine months. People are actually getting

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<v Speaker 4>loans from families and friends to make ends meet.

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<v Speaker 2>Fasi says there are three main drivers behind these massive

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<v Speaker 2>price hikes. For things like electricity. The first one is

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<v Speaker 2>the rise in global commodity prices that has impacted everyone everywhere.

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<v Speaker 2>But on top of that number two, Pakistan has seen

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<v Speaker 2>its currency significantly devalued. It was the worst performing currency

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<v Speaker 2>in Asia last year. The Pakistani rupee has lost almost

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<v Speaker 2>half of its value in recent years, and that made

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<v Speaker 2>imported goods much more expensive. Adding to the pain is

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<v Speaker 2>a new tax Pakistan added last year.

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<v Speaker 4>Pakistan imposed something called a luxury tax, So anything imported

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<v Speaker 4>from overseas has gotten an extra luxury tax. And I

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<v Speaker 4>can tell you from personal experience that Dorito's also falls

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<v Speaker 4>in that category. And Dorito's in Karachi now costs like

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<v Speaker 4>which ainomously more than how much it costs in Dubai.

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<v Speaker 2>I can't believe that de Rito's are a luxury active.

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<v Speaker 4>I don't have the list in front of me. But

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<v Speaker 4>stuff like basics like chocolates and makeup, these things are

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<v Speaker 4>also added a luxury tax.

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<v Speaker 2>All of this pushed Pakistan's inflation rate to a record

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<v Speaker 2>thirty eight percent last May, and it's remained the highest

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<v Speaker 2>in Asia since then. And on top of paying more

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<v Speaker 2>than ever for things they buy, some of the countries

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<v Speaker 2>more educated and highly skilled workers are also now paying

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<v Speaker 2>much more in taxes because they're considered some of the

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<v Speaker 2>country's highest earners. But Farsi says most people in Pakistan

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<v Speaker 2>don't make a lot of money to begin with.

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<v Speaker 4>To be among the top twenty percent income owners in Pakistan,

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<v Speaker 4>you need to have a salary of sixty four thousand rupees,

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<v Speaker 4>which is only two hundred and thirty dollars a month.

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<v Speaker 4>The idea is that if someone is paying a tax

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<v Speaker 4>equal to what they've been in London or New York,

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<v Speaker 4>then why am I not enjoying the same infrastructure and benefits.

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<v Speaker 2>With both inflation and taxes spiraling out of control, numerous

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<v Speaker 2>protests took place across.

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<v Speaker 3>The country and people started to rush for the exit door.

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<v Speaker 4>Anyone with a high degree who can move is moving,

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<v Speaker 4>and we're seeing people move in all sorts of ways.

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<v Speaker 4>People are going on visit visas to Middle East or

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<v Speaker 4>the US even for that matter, and just hunting for jobs.

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<v Speaker 4>Senior people in the financial industry. I know one of

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<v Speaker 4>them applied for a refugee status in the US.

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<v Speaker 2>This kind of brain drain is bad for any country,

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<v Speaker 2>but it's especially troubling in Pakistan because it has already

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<v Speaker 2>been struggling financially. Pakistan just recently made a seven billion

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<v Speaker 2>dollar bailout deal with the International Panetary Fund, and it

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<v Speaker 2>needs its highly educated and skilled workers to help pull

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<v Speaker 2>the country back out of its debt crisis. So what

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<v Speaker 2>can Pakistan do to stop this exodus of talent? And

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<v Speaker 2>with its top earners gone, will Pakistan be able to

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<v Speaker 2>avoid bankruptcy?

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<v Speaker 3>That's after the break.

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<v Speaker 2>Record numbers of Pakistanis, including some of the highest earners

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<v Speaker 2>in the country, are leaving for other places, and Bloomberg's

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<v Speaker 2>Fussy Mongy says the reason they're leaving has a look

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<v Speaker 2>to do with the state of Pakistan's economy right now

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<v Speaker 2>and where they see it going in the future.

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<v Speaker 4>Pakistan's economic growth on an average of trailing three years

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<v Speaker 4>is the lowest ever in its history right now, and

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<v Speaker 4>list and economists are not predicting Pakistan's economic growth to

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<v Speaker 4>go up anytime soon.

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<v Speaker 2>On top of this slowing growth, the country is also

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<v Speaker 2>dealing with massive debt. Pakistan faces about twenty six billion

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<v Speaker 2>US dollars in loan repayments to partners like China, Saudi

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<v Speaker 2>Arabia and the UAE, and it's also gotten huge loans

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<v Speaker 2>from the IMF to help the country avoid a.

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<v Speaker 4>Default, so the IMF is the lender of last resort.

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<v Speaker 4>Pakistan is one of the most frequent customers for the IMF.

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<v Speaker 4>The IMF classifies Pakistan's debt situation as borderline sustainable, so

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<v Speaker 4>it's working on a fine rope. Earlier this year, or

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<v Speaker 4>just a month or so ago, IMF approved a new

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<v Speaker 4>seven billion dollar bailout. This was the twenty fifth program

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<v Speaker 4>in Pakistan's history. And just to give some context as well,

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<v Speaker 4>so Pakistan ended another program from the IMF earlier this year,

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<v Speaker 4>and Pakistan has been going from one IMF program to theato.

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<v Speaker 2>And while this latest IMF program may be giving a

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<v Speaker 2>lifeline to Pakistan, it's also a major driving force for

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<v Speaker 2>the country's substantial tax increases, the same tax increases that

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<v Speaker 2>working people in Pakistan.

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<v Speaker 3>Are so upset about.

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<v Speaker 2>In order to meet the conditions set by the IMF

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<v Speaker 2>for the deal, Pakistan recently raised the total tax revenue

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<v Speaker 2>target by forty percent, the highest on record. This has

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<v Speaker 2>created a challenge for the country's leaders, who recognize the

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<v Speaker 2>need to collect more revenue, but also fear the increased

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<v Speaker 2>taxes will lead to more skilled and educated workers leaving

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<v Speaker 2>the country. Ali Paves Malik, the State Minister for Finance

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<v Speaker 2>and Revenue, said, talent leaving is something we must be

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<v Speaker 2>cognizant of.

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<v Speaker 3>Here's Bloomberg's fussy Mangi again.

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<v Speaker 4>They're aware of the fact that the taxes are high.

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<v Speaker 4>They say, whenever they can give a relief to the

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<v Speaker 4>income tax factor, they will give a relief. But it's

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<v Speaker 4>going to be a rough ride for the next few years.

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<v Speaker 4>It's going to be difficult. Economist say, it's going to

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<v Speaker 4>be difficult for the government to give that relief.

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<v Speaker 2>Fuszi, what happens if the government fails to stop more

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<v Speaker 2>Pakistanis from leaving the country.

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<v Speaker 4>Then we're going to have a talent issue in Pakistan.

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<v Speaker 4>A lot of companies are not finding the same quality

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<v Speaker 4>of people to replace the people who are leaving, so

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<v Speaker 4>it's creating a massive hole of talent.

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<v Speaker 3>So where does Pakistan go from here?

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<v Speaker 2>Will Pakistan be able to navigate itself out of this

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<v Speaker 2>economic crunch? Will the seven billion dollar IMF bailout be

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<v Speaker 2>its last?

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<v Speaker 3>Fuzzy says, there's no clear path forward.

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<v Speaker 4>One thing to notice that the IMF program is a stabilizer,

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<v Speaker 4>it's not a booster. For your economy. It doesn't solve

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<v Speaker 4>the problems, the base problems of the economy. It can

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<v Speaker 4>tell you what needs to be done, it can lay

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<v Speaker 4>it out. In Pakistan, everyone says, everyone knows what the

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<v Speaker 4>problem is. It's about getting the job done, and unfortunately

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<v Speaker 4>we haven't been able to do the job for a

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<v Speaker 4>long time. We're seeing a very serious effort this time.

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<v Speaker 4>Whether we will be able to do it or not,

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<v Speaker 4>that is a question that remains, and we'll just need

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<v Speaker 4>to wait and see what happens.

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<v Speaker 3>And as for Asado, we hear from in the beginning

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<v Speaker 3>of the episode, he left Pakistan to pursue a life

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<v Speaker 3>in the US. He says, even though he's chosen to

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<v Speaker 3>leave his.

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<v Speaker 2>Home country for now, he still holds out hope that

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<v Speaker 2>he could one day return.

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<v Speaker 1>I think that option never goes out of the window,

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<v Speaker 1>and it will always stay on the cards. It's my country,

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<v Speaker 1>I love it, and it's a sad situation. But I

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<v Speaker 1>guess when I decided to jump the boat, I thought

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<v Speaker 1>about all these things. But constantly, your passion for the country,

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<v Speaker 1>your passion for meaningful change, it's constantly pitted against economic responsibility,

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<v Speaker 1>and at the end of the day, you have to

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<v Speaker 1>put your weight behind economic responsibility more than pure actions

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<v Speaker 1>or emotionality for your country.

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<v Speaker 2>This is The Big Take Asia from Bloomberg News. I'm

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<v Speaker 2>Rebecca Cheung Wilkins. This episode was produced by Young Young,

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<v Speaker 2>Naomi Ung and Jessica bec It was mixed by Alex

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<v Speaker 2>Segura and fact checked by Eddie dwe It was edited

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<v Speaker 2>by Caitlin Kenney, Aaron Edwards, and Kai Schultz. We'd like

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<v Speaker 2>to give special thanks to the Bloomberg Originals team. Naomi

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<v Speaker 2>Shavin is our senior producer, Elizabeth Ponso is our senior editor,

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<v Speaker 2>Nicole Beemstabor is our executive producer, and Sage Bauman is

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<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg's head of podcast Please follow and review The Big

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<v Speaker 2>Take Asia wherever you listen to podcasts. It really helps

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<v Speaker 2>new listeners find the show.

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<v Speaker 3>See you next time.