1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:14,600 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:14,280 --> 00:00:18,000 Speaker 2: Single best idea into the August doldrums, except it's not 3 00:00:18,120 --> 00:00:21,439 Speaker 2: Doldrum's always interesting. And of course this up to the 4 00:00:21,560 --> 00:00:26,080 Speaker 2: Jackson Hole meeting yesterday was extraordinary thanks to our Washington 5 00:00:26,160 --> 00:00:28,760 Speaker 2: team who had to piece together spur the moment like 6 00:00:28,800 --> 00:00:35,800 Speaker 2: everybody else, this absolute historic gathering of NATO with President Trump. 7 00:00:35,920 --> 00:00:38,959 Speaker 2: Terry Haynes was with us with Pangaea and he commented 8 00:00:39,000 --> 00:00:41,920 Speaker 2: on the analogs are looking at the history of the 9 00:00:42,000 --> 00:00:45,120 Speaker 2: twentieth century versus moments before. 10 00:00:45,400 --> 00:00:48,320 Speaker 3: I think people make a huge mistake looking at this 11 00:00:48,479 --> 00:00:52,239 Speaker 3: through twentieth century lenses. People look at it almost like 12 00:00:52,320 --> 00:00:54,800 Speaker 3: Cold War two is kind of great power and great 13 00:00:54,880 --> 00:00:58,720 Speaker 3: power how Trump is actually approaching it and his people, 14 00:00:59,080 --> 00:01:02,400 Speaker 3: principally Whitpop than Rubio, refer to this role as a 15 00:01:02,480 --> 00:01:05,320 Speaker 3: mediator role, and in a lot of ways it very 16 00:01:05,360 --> 00:01:08,440 Speaker 3: much is if he wants to provide some security guarantees 17 00:01:08,760 --> 00:01:12,360 Speaker 3: to back up Europe, and that's fine, but he looks 18 00:01:12,360 --> 00:01:16,360 Speaker 3: at himself as a mediator. But it's really and you know, Russia, 19 00:01:16,400 --> 00:01:18,959 Speaker 3: I always think, is a client state of China. So 20 00:01:19,000 --> 00:01:20,959 Speaker 3: the most important people going forward here in the most 21 00:01:20,959 --> 00:01:24,760 Speaker 3: important countries are Europe, what Europe can do, what Europe's 22 00:01:24,800 --> 00:01:28,760 Speaker 3: willing to do, and what China will let Russia do. China, 23 00:01:28,800 --> 00:01:32,399 Speaker 3: I think, is in a situation where it's fine with 24 00:01:32,520 --> 00:01:36,720 Speaker 3: Russia getting whatever scraps it can to cover its loss. 25 00:01:36,760 --> 00:01:39,000 Speaker 3: And there's no doubt that what happened in Russia is 26 00:01:39,000 --> 00:01:41,880 Speaker 3: a loss. Right, if you don't achieve eighty three percent 27 00:01:41,920 --> 00:01:45,280 Speaker 3: of your war aims, you've lost functionally. But this really 28 00:01:45,280 --> 00:01:48,840 Speaker 3: comes down to Europe. If negotiations fail, Europe has to 29 00:01:48,880 --> 00:01:51,680 Speaker 3: be willing to go the whole hog on sanctions, including 30 00:01:52,160 --> 00:01:55,360 Speaker 3: taking the frozen bank accounts that they've gotten and doing 31 00:01:55,440 --> 00:01:58,040 Speaker 3: something with them, ratcheting it up at a time where 32 00:01:58,360 --> 00:02:03,240 Speaker 3: Russia's an economic strain, it's or if they succeed, and 33 00:02:03,360 --> 00:02:06,120 Speaker 3: they've got to be willing to do something meaningful on security. 34 00:02:06,680 --> 00:02:09,200 Speaker 2: Terry Haynes there and again with Pangaea, I can't say 35 00:02:09,280 --> 00:02:14,320 Speaker 2: enough about his effort out on LinkedIn, hugely and always informative. 36 00:02:14,520 --> 00:02:18,440 Speaker 2: Lauri Kelvisinas stopped by some other great conversations today, Jim 37 00:02:18,520 --> 00:02:21,639 Speaker 2: Karen and Morgan Stanley I thought was good. Kristin Bitterly 38 00:02:21,720 --> 00:02:25,600 Speaker 2: from City Group and how the kids are having trouble 39 00:02:25,639 --> 00:02:28,160 Speaker 2: figuring out what to do with mom and Dad's money. 40 00:02:28,200 --> 00:02:32,240 Speaker 2: It was actually a really really important conversation. Making of 41 00:02:32,280 --> 00:02:36,200 Speaker 2: the money is listening to strategists. Here's Lori Kelvisina on 42 00:02:36,320 --> 00:02:39,519 Speaker 2: the value of studying the midcaps. 43 00:02:39,680 --> 00:02:41,680 Speaker 4: I think you do learn things, you know. I'm an 44 00:02:41,720 --> 00:02:44,280 Speaker 4: old small MidCap strategist, you know. I know we talk 45 00:02:44,320 --> 00:02:46,600 Speaker 4: about that quite a bit, but I always tell people 46 00:02:46,720 --> 00:02:49,120 Speaker 4: go listen to the smid companies because they have simpler 47 00:02:49,160 --> 00:02:52,079 Speaker 4: business models, and you often will sort of get more 48 00:02:52,120 --> 00:02:55,200 Speaker 4: interesting breadcrumbs of information that aren't just relevant to them, 49 00:02:55,240 --> 00:02:57,240 Speaker 4: but that do apply to the the S and P 50 00:02:57,400 --> 00:02:59,959 Speaker 4: five hundred and you know, kind of broader corporate profit 51 00:03:00,080 --> 00:03:02,600 Speaker 4: the ability picture as well. So I think that you 52 00:03:03,480 --> 00:03:06,440 Speaker 4: have to listen, you have to look for those interesting nuggets, 53 00:03:06,480 --> 00:03:08,639 Speaker 4: not just what everybody is saying. It's often the thing 54 00:03:08,680 --> 00:03:10,760 Speaker 4: that one or two companies are going to let slip 55 00:03:10,800 --> 00:03:13,000 Speaker 4: out that ends up being the useful tenbit. 56 00:03:13,280 --> 00:03:18,079 Speaker 2: Lauren Calvacina there with RBC Capital Marcus count down away 57 00:03:18,240 --> 00:03:21,359 Speaker 2: to our trip to Wyoming with Lisa Abrama. It's Joe 58 00:03:21,360 --> 00:03:24,560 Speaker 2: Eisenthal and Tracy Lloway in attendance as well, with the 59 00:03:24,639 --> 00:03:29,919 Speaker 2: leadership of Michael McKee on our podcast, on Apple, on Spotify, 60 00:03:30,240 --> 00:03:37,560 Speaker 2: and on YouTube podcasts. This is the single best idea