Speaker 1: Hello everybody. Welcome into the Fantasy Pros Football Podcast. I'm
Speaker 1: Ryan Warmley, joined today by Andrew Rickson and Chris welsh Fellas.
Speaker 1: It is Conference Championship weekend. We only have three more
Speaker 1: games of the NFL season that the playoffs. It whittles
Speaker 1: down so quickly. That's oh, we have the whole playoffs
Speaker 1: ahead of us, and two weeks later it's there's three
Speaker 1: total games left in the season, which is sad, but
Speaker 1: it is exciting that we get to watch some football
Speaker 1: on this upcoming Sunday and then of course on Super
Speaker 1: Bowl Sunday two weeks from that, we have Commanders Eagles,
Speaker 1: we have Bill's Chiefs. Before we kind of get into
Speaker 1: how we did in last week's predictions ericson and what
Speaker 1: our predictions are for this week. How do you just
Speaker 1: feel about these matchups in general? How excite are you
Speaker 1: for this to be the foursome that we have in
Speaker 1: Conference Championship weekend.
Speaker 2: It's definitely not what most people would have anticipated, especially
Speaker 2: with the Commanders here being in the final four. I
Speaker 2: think the three other teams are pretty chalky. A Chief
Speaker 2: spills AFC Championship game, I don't think you would have
Speaker 2: been going out on a limb saying these would be
Speaker 2: the two teams in the AFC Philadelphia ups and downs
Speaker 2: all year, but they are been one of the best
Speaker 2: team to think, especially on the defensive side of the ball.
Speaker 2: But I mean it's got to be the Commanders, right,
Speaker 2: Just this going with behind a rookie quarterback who basically
Speaker 2: doesn't seem phased by anything because he lives in a
Speaker 2: one point seventy five speed virtual reality and then goes
Speaker 2: steps out into real life and is like, oh, this
Speaker 2: is easy mode. This is my life in an easy mode.
Speaker 2: I need to find a way. Maybe I listen to
Speaker 2: podcasts on two point x speed. I'll be a better listener.
Speaker 2: For my wife is telling me to do certain things,
Speaker 2: and I'll be I'll be able to register into my
Speaker 2: mind in a better way. But yeah, I think that
Speaker 2: the Commanders share are a really fun team to at
Speaker 2: least look at and see. And I think that what
Speaker 2: makes it extra special is that they're playing in division
Speaker 2: rival right. If it was a Commander's Verse another eight
Speaker 2: maybe like the Texans or another NFC team, maybe wouldn't
Speaker 2: have as much. But the fact that is a third game,
Speaker 2: a rubber match between NFC rivals, especially in the NFC East,
Speaker 2: we always know that rivalry games, anything can happen, right,
Speaker 2: So that's kind of what gets me excited for this
Speaker 2: game is obviously you know Bill's Chiefs, the rivalry that
Speaker 2: keeps on, you know, continuing on. So we'll see who
Speaker 2: emerges victorious. But yeah, we'll break it down.
Speaker 1: Wells, what do you think did Ericson just reinvent couples
Speaker 1: counseling forever?
Speaker 3: That sounds about right? Yeah, I mean I think like
Speaker 3: this is this is solid. Like you want a little
Speaker 3: bit of parody, everyone starts screaming. I mean, everyone does
Speaker 3: it no matter what you know with whatever the Chiefs do.
Speaker 3: You know, the memes of the the refs and Patrick
Speaker 3: Mahomes Jersey swap and stuff like that, Like we've got
Speaker 3: to have some parody. So I'm I'm totally fine with
Speaker 3: Washington and especially Jaydon Daniels. That's funny you say, like
Speaker 3: one point seven to five Speed. It's kind of like
Speaker 3: you ever like have like a nephew and they're like, hey,
Speaker 3: you want to play a game, and you're like, yeah, sure,
Speaker 3: let's play Madden. You know, let's play Madden. And it's
Speaker 3: just like they grew up playing on All Madden the
Speaker 3: entire time, and it's just a natural and they just
Speaker 3: know the play. That's kind of how Jade Daniels was.
Speaker 3: He just makes it look easy. It's very fluid. But
Speaker 3: there's also something to the quarterback class that we're seeing.
Speaker 3: You know, this isn't that old. You know Trent Dilfer
Speaker 3: or Matt Hassel about getting a team and just like,
Speaker 3: you know, just doing enough to get It's like, no,
Speaker 3: it's incredible. I Mean, if you were to argue which
Speaker 3: quarterback at this point is the closest to a guy
Speaker 3: that's doing just enough to keep their team in, it
Speaker 3: would be Jalen Hurts. He would be the one that's
Speaker 3: just doing enough. Like the guy doesn't pass, you know,
Speaker 3: it's under twenty pass attempts practically every sprinking game, it
Speaker 3: seems like. But like, it's a great quarterback class that's
Speaker 3: going to be out there. These guys are going to
Speaker 3: keep them in the in it. I know you're disappointed.
Speaker 3: I'd be disappointed too, you know, for your team to
Speaker 3: be out of it. It's one of those where you're like,
Speaker 3: we just have the Ravens move over to the NFC
Speaker 3: for a little bit as well. But it's a it's
Speaker 3: a great matchup. It's gonna be phenomenal games.
Speaker 1: And you know, there were everybody say going to this
Speaker 1: playss there were five teams that could win the Super Bowl.
Speaker 1: It was two in the NFC, three in the AFC,
Speaker 1: so we knew all three couldn't make the conference stationship game.
Speaker 1: One of the Bills or Ravens had to lose. And
Speaker 1: on the other side, we thought it was Eagles Lions.
Speaker 1: The Lions were the upsets it to your guys point,
Speaker 1: and I mean that was a crazy game too, Like
Speaker 1: it was very fun to watch that upside. Like maybe
Speaker 1: I don't speak for everybody, I had more fun watching
Speaker 1: the Commanders upset the Lions than I did worrying about
Speaker 1: I was rooting for the Lions and wanted to see
Speaker 1: them make it. Like it was just cool to see
Speaker 1: kind of this wild back and forth game, to see
Speaker 1: Jade Daniels really kind of step up in such a
Speaker 1: rare way for a rookie quarterback. I mean, it's something
Speaker 1: like a half dozen rookie quarterbacks have ever even made.
Speaker 3: I think we like to see it. But I will
Speaker 3: say I think of all the teams to have sacrificed.
Speaker 3: I think like a majority of people would have been like,
Speaker 3: not the Lions. I mean, maybe I'm wrong here. I
Speaker 3: think people would have been like, you get Bills, Ravens,
Speaker 3: Chiefs Eagles, we can do that. Like the Lions were
Speaker 3: the one that I don't.
Speaker 1: We just saw Chiefs Eagles a couple of years ago.
Speaker 1: So I would assume most people what they were rooting
Speaker 1: for was something if your team wasn't involved, I would
Speaker 1: assume most people were rooting for Lions Bills like that.
Speaker 1: That was kind of my incredible Oh, it would have
Speaker 1: been awesome. But I just think people like Josh Allen
Speaker 1: and people like like the Bills haven't won it, and
Speaker 1: like the Ravens it was twelve years ago, but they
Speaker 1: have won a Super Bowl. Like I think, I think
Speaker 1: if you had to pick one, for most people, it
Speaker 1: probably was who were casual fans, It's probably Lions Bills.
Speaker 1: But yeah, we'll see what. We'll see what comes.
Speaker 3: By the way, can I ask were you? Are you
Speaker 3: not in all your games? Set up?
Speaker 2: Here?
Speaker 3: You're telling us you're not excited about the Pro Bowl
Speaker 3: flag football game or the Pro Bowl? What is it?
Speaker 3: The punt pass throw whatever? It is for four year olds.
Speaker 3: It's going to happen to other Pro Bow? Are you
Speaker 3: saying you're not excited about these things?
Speaker 1: Were? I think I've watched less than ten minutes of
Speaker 1: Pro Bowl coverage in my life.
Speaker 3: I actually don't know what they do anymore. I haven't
Speaker 3: watched it. Probably I don't know either.
Speaker 1: I will not watch or care.
Speaker 2: I muted the term Pro Bowl and all my social media,
Speaker 2: so I don't know what you're talking about us decision
Speaker 2: I ever made.
Speaker 1: Obviously I do. I'm still paying attention to the you know, MVP,
Speaker 1: which is clearly voted on already, and I'm I'll be
Speaker 1: paying attention to that awards show just to see what
Speaker 1: happens with Lamar. But as far as like Pro Bowl
Speaker 1: stuff goes, no, absolutely, unequivocally, could, could not care less.
Speaker 1: How did we do in the division around? Let's see
Speaker 1: how the guys did. Both guys were wrong on their
Speaker 1: chiefs picks with the player of props, but Checko and
Speaker 1: Hopkins both went under. Ericson was wrong on Jamison Williams receptions.
Speaker 1: Welsh was very correct about Theammy Brown's receiving yards over
Speaker 1: The guys were both wrong on Rams Eagles Cup did
Speaker 1: go over fifty yards. Aj Brown failed to get a touchdown,
Speaker 1: no passing touchdowns for the Eagles in that one. And finally,
Speaker 1: James Cook did go over on rushing yards while Derek
Speaker 1: Henry went under on attempts, So both guys missed on
Speaker 1: Ravens bills as well.
Speaker 2: So is that another another donut for me?
Speaker 1: There was, but the two of you combined for one
Speaker 1: correct prediction.
Speaker 3: It well, I got diamic, but Miami Brown was like, oh,
Speaker 3: you're saying the total combination was just me?
Speaker 2: I like it? Like that better. Let's just say we
Speaker 2: combined dire prediction.
Speaker 3: Good job as a job, by the way, just like
Speaker 3: Jane Daniels twenty two completions. That was I guess that
Speaker 3: was on the betting show, but that was out there.
Speaker 1: It just everything you guys were largely correct. I mean,
Speaker 1: obviously the Commanders is a big upset, Like it's not
Speaker 1: like you guys had the Texans winning. So when I
Speaker 1: say you were wrong in the Chiefs pick, it was
Speaker 1: in the player.
Speaker 2: You know, we we I was. I remember I was
Speaker 2: messaging Welsh and I was like we In hindsight, it
Speaker 2: was so clearly Travis Kelcey as as the Chiefs player
Speaker 2: at tu Tar game, we were messing around with these
Speaker 2: other guys. I was like, we're being stupid.
Speaker 3: Watching we'll do in this game.
Speaker 2: That was sneaky. No what doing here? So I, as
Speaker 2: all will get into the picks for this week. I
Speaker 2: have made amends for my mistakes and I am not
Speaker 2: going to overthink.
Speaker 1: It this time. It really was Like obviously I was
Speaker 1: quite you know, distressed on Sunday night with the Ravens losing,
Speaker 1: but like in general, just like you know, taking any
Speaker 1: bias aside, it was an amazing like weekend of games.
Speaker 1: So like even if we were kind of wrong on
Speaker 1: a lot of these like Wildcard weekend, bit of a
Speaker 1: letdown and just in terms of like as from a
Speaker 1: fan perspective, but Divisional Round like totally delivered it.
Speaker 2: It was.
Speaker 1: It was a really awesome quartet of games. Hopefully we
Speaker 1: get a couple of games just as strong on Sunday.
Speaker 1: We'll go chronologically. The AFC Championship is the earlier game
Speaker 1: this year, so we'll start with Bills Chiefs even though
Speaker 1: I think that's probably the game most people are most
Speaker 1: excited for. Uh, well, we're gonna do because we only
Speaker 1: have two games here. Rather than the guys giving a
Speaker 1: prediction for each game, they're going to give a prediction
Speaker 1: for each team in each game, so they'll have four
Speaker 1: predictions each. We'll start on the Bills side of this
Speaker 1: one ericson what is your prediction for the Bills against
Speaker 1: the Chiefs on Sunday.
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go with Khalil Shakir is going to go
Speaker 2: over fifty three and a half receiving yards. Basically, when
Speaker 2: you look at the Buffalo Bills receiving room, Shakira is
Speaker 2: the only guy that has been consistent in any way,
Speaker 2: shape or form this season. Like they have a rotation
Speaker 2: of up to five guys with Samuel mccollins, Amari Cooper,
Speaker 2: key On Coleman, but Shakira is really that main guy
Speaker 2: that Josh Allen looks to in his time of need.
Speaker 2: We saw it this last week. Six catches sixty seven
Speaker 2: yards on seven targets, which are thirty two percent target share.
Speaker 2: He was the only Bills for she ever received more
Speaker 2: than one target in the first half. So it's so
Speaker 2: clear when Josh Allen drops back to throw when they're
Speaker 2: not running the ball, or whether he's not running with
Speaker 2: his legs or handing it off to James Cook. It's
Speaker 2: going to Khalil Shakir, So I like the over on
Speaker 2: him this week. He's been over this number of fifty
Speaker 2: three yards and ten of seventeen games this season. That's
Speaker 2: fifty eight percent. And in a game where I don't
Speaker 2: know if the Bills are going to just be able
Speaker 2: to hand the ball off a million times and run.
Speaker 2: I feel like if they're going to beat the Chiefs,
Speaker 2: they got to beat the Chiefs. Like going into a
Speaker 2: Chiefs game thinking, oh, let's keep it close. I bet
Speaker 2: we can win it in a close game. That seems
Speaker 2: like the worst possible strategy could have based on what
Speaker 2: the Chiefs have done in close games. All they do
Speaker 2: is win these close games. So I think the Bills
Speaker 2: need to be a little bit more aggressive. So Shakira
Speaker 2: as the number one wide receiver on the Buffalo Bills,
Speaker 2: I like taking the over fifty three and a half
Speaker 2: receiving yards in the matchup earlier this year when the
Speaker 2: Bills beat the Chiefs, he had eight catches on twelve
Speaker 2: targets for thirty two percent target shap for seventy yards.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Shakierra, I mean, like you said, seven targets. The
Speaker 1: only other player on the Bills with more than two
Speaker 1: targets was the running back James Cook. Like this, he
Speaker 1: was just the guy throughout throughout that game and really
Speaker 1: throughout the season. Welsh, what do you think about Shakir
Speaker 1: over fifty three and a half receiving yards?
Speaker 3: Yeah? I love that. This is like it comes back
Speaker 3: to Ericson and I's debate will have like receptions versus yards.
Speaker 3: His reception marker right now is five and a half
Speaker 3: and it's plus money, which, by the way, I like that.
Speaker 3: But also at five and a half, if they're implying,
Speaker 3: if they're implying five, essentially what they're doing, they're implying five,
Speaker 3: fifty three yards is a pretty good marker for him.
Speaker 3: I also, and this is going to tie into my
Speaker 3: next one, I think this team is going to have
Speaker 3: to pass the ball. They're gonna have to kind of
Speaker 3: buck that trend if they're going to end up winning
Speaker 3: this game. This is not a team historically or you know,
Speaker 3: over longer periods of time this season that you can
Speaker 3: really run with. So there is like a game establishment
Speaker 3: if they have a lead, obviously they are going to
Speaker 3: lean on that. But if they are at all playing
Speaker 3: from behind, they're gonna have to throw the ball. That
Speaker 3: will lead to my Josh Allen prediction here. But Khalil
Speaker 3: Shaker is going to be imperative to that.
Speaker 1: He is the guy.
Speaker 3: He's the guy that's to be sitting around the middle.
Speaker 3: He's a safety net. So I like the yards, I
Speaker 3: like the receptions. To be honest with you, at plus
Speaker 3: money this week, Who the hell am I? Those was
Speaker 3: a horrible week last week. But I am tailing this
Speaker 3: with ericson one hundred percent on Shakir.
Speaker 1: You can get into that Josh all prediction you've got
Speaker 1: for the Bill side too.
Speaker 3: Yes, again, it just it's kind of like a juicy
Speaker 3: plus money play. If you want to have two plus
Speaker 3: money plays with some correlation, how about that Khalil Shakir
Speaker 3: plus five and a half receptions to what I like here,
Speaker 3: it's plus money for Josh Allen to throw for two
Speaker 3: touchdowns in this game. There's actually a lot of plus
Speaker 3: money on two touchdown throws. For this. Josh Allen has
Speaker 3: hit this marker of two touchdowns in five of his
Speaker 3: last seven games, so that's solid an interesting one because
Speaker 3: I believe he's going to have to pass. Josh Allen
Speaker 3: has not thrown for thirty has not had thirty pass
Speaker 3: attempts if you don't count Week eighteen. Four straight games
Speaker 3: he has gone under thirty pass attempts. The last two
Speaker 3: games that he had thrown he shown thirty or thirty
Speaker 3: four and thirty seven against Detroit and the Rams. Both
Speaker 3: of those games he threw for two touchdowns. In fact,
Speaker 3: six of nine games this year where he's had thirty
Speaker 3: or more pass attempts, he has thrown for two touchdowns
Speaker 3: or more. That is how they're going to have to
Speaker 3: end up beating the Kansas City Chiefs. Obviously, he's going
Speaker 3: to try to take it into his hands and run.
Speaker 3: Some run for Josh Allen is always in play, But
Speaker 3: to over two or over passing touchdowns at plus money
Speaker 3: is a play that I really like in a game
Speaker 3: that I think they're going to be playing from behind
Speaker 3: a little bit and they're going to have to be aggressive,
Speaker 3: and I just don't think unless they are just destroying
Speaker 3: the play clock and it's just like three yards, three yards,
Speaker 3: four yards, and then they're just doing like the National
Speaker 3: Championship game where it was like Notre Dame for like
Speaker 3: eight minutes on the first drive and less are doing
Speaker 3: stuff like that. It's going to keep it out. But
Speaker 3: I think we're going to have to see a heavy
Speaker 3: dose of Josh Allen getting the ball in the air.
Speaker 3: And I like the two touchdown passes.
Speaker 1: What do you think about this one, Eric's I mean,
Speaker 1: the Bills have run the ball so well recently, even
Speaker 1: against you in a very strong Ravens run defense, just
Speaker 1: on Sunday. And also you know when they get in close,
Speaker 1: they like to run with Alan at the goal line.
Speaker 1: But what do you think about this? You know, two
Speaker 1: passing touchdowns for him this week.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's my reservation about it is because they had
Speaker 2: zero red zone pass attempts last week. Like, they didn't
Speaker 2: try to throw the ball. They were just like handa
Speaker 2: James Cook jylesh Allen's always a can to twenty two
Speaker 2: past attemps total exactly. So I like that. Obviously, it's
Speaker 2: a big payout and you're looking for, Okay, where is
Speaker 2: this game script going to change? And I think you
Speaker 2: also have to take a step back and think, well,
Speaker 2: they don't just have to throw the ball in the
Speaker 2: red zone. They can score outside the red zone, right,
Speaker 2: They can take some of these bigger shots with Anamari
Speaker 2: Cooper with key On Coleman, where it's funny we look
Speaker 2: at these guys receiving yards, they're props. They're all so
Speaker 2: low because no one really knows which guy's gonna pop
Speaker 2: off here. But I think someone is gonna pop off
Speaker 2: with one of these Bills receivers to trying to figure out, Okay,
Speaker 2: where do I put my which you know we am
Speaker 2: I going to put the eggs in which basket here?
Speaker 2: With is it? Cooper is a key On Coleman as a
Speaker 2: Curti of Sam Well, who I believes scored the last
Speaker 2: time that these teams played each other. So I think
Speaker 2: that might be an interesting angle two to look at
Speaker 2: these longer anytime touchdown bets because you're going to get
Speaker 2: really long shot odds on a lot of these Bills players,
Speaker 2: but you know they're going to score some points. It's
Speaker 2: a forty eight and a half point total. The Bills
Speaker 2: aren't going to go up and score ten points in
Speaker 2: Kansas City. I think that's gonna happen, especially with the
Speaker 2: Chiefs defense specific against the run that hasn't been as
Speaker 2: good as it was to start the year. So even
Speaker 2: if you look back at the James Cook stat line,
Speaker 2: because I looked at like, should I go back to
Speaker 2: the under on James Cook? Not a chance? Not the
Speaker 2: way that the Chiefs run Devius has played, and how
Speaker 2: well James Cook has played running the football. So yeah,
Speaker 2: that's kind of how I'm viewing the Josh Allen passing touchdowns.
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Speaker 1: other side of this one, the Chiefs, obviously they're going
Speaker 1: for the three p tier or not this week, but
Speaker 1: to get the opportunity for that if they punch their
Speaker 1: ticket to the super Bowl. In this one, ericson what's
Speaker 1: your prediction on the chief side?
Speaker 2: So I need to ask you guys a question first.
Speaker 2: So Travis kelcey right is playing a lot of postseason games,
Speaker 2: So what do you think his consecutive streak of playoff games,
Speaker 2: if at least seventy receiving yards is unless you already know,
Speaker 2: unless you know, the NUM's.
Speaker 3: Probably pretty big. I want to say, like six.
Speaker 1: I was also thinking six. I do not know the number.
Speaker 2: That's fourteen.
Speaker 1: I almost was like, I almost was like, well maybe
Speaker 1: maybe it's a crazy high like eight or nine go for.
Speaker 3: Well the problem with them too, by the way, six
Speaker 3: this only accounts for like two years. So yeah, well
Speaker 3: a good point, like fourteen makes sense.
Speaker 2: It has been. And so this is why I'm so
Speaker 2: mad at myself for last week and just not like
Speaker 2: looking at like this so obvious trend that the guy is,
Speaker 2: you know, seventy five percent all the way and then
Speaker 2: playoffs kick off, and this is what he turns it on.
Speaker 2: So it's funny because if you look at the prop
Speaker 2: at chie sheet like it's going to tell you got
Speaker 2: to take the under here, it's too high of a number.
Speaker 2: But he just it's it's a different guy that we're
Speaker 2: playing with here with Travis Kelsey. So I'm my prediction
Speaker 2: he goes over sixty nine and a half receiving yard,
Speaker 2: so it hits that seventy. Mark marks his fifteenth postseason
Speaker 2: game in a row that hits seventy receiving yards. So yeah,
Speaker 2: that's it for me. I'm not trying to overthink it
Speaker 2: this time with Travis Kelce. Will he be as lucky,
Speaker 2: you know, ripping off yards after the catch? Maybe not,
Speaker 2: But I don't know. I feel like he still has
Speaker 2: just that other gear in the playoffs, and that's where
Speaker 2: Mahomes is looking, and he Mahomes doesn't really looking at
Speaker 2: a ton of other receivers besides Xavier Worthy in the
Speaker 2: matchup last week, and it was Kelsey. You know, he
Speaker 2: was the target leader. I know that he struggled against
Speaker 2: the Bills the last time that they faced off to
Speaker 2: catch us on four targets for just eight yards. But
Speaker 2: Noah Gray had a pre involved game there, So I
Speaker 2: do think that you could sell a tack this Bills
Speaker 2: defense with the tight end. You saw Isaiah likely Mark
Speaker 2: Andrews at least be involved again, not to at least
Speaker 2: what one would expect in terms of their actual involvement
Speaker 2: in actual on field production, but you saw him getting targets.
Speaker 2: I don't think that the Bills are going to totally
Speaker 2: on to neutralize Travis Kelce. So I like taking his
Speaker 2: over seventy receiving yards.
Speaker 1: Yeah, not at all surprised to see him stepping it
Speaker 1: up in the playoffs. So I think this is what
Speaker 1: we kind of were all expecting, you know, not like
Speaker 1: not caring about the regular season, but definitely taking it
Speaker 1: easier and then saving it for January. Yeah, February twenty twenty,
Speaker 1: that Super Bowl against the forty nine ers was the
Speaker 1: last time he was under seventy yards receiving in a
Speaker 1: playoff game. That is a that is five years. That
Speaker 1: is a long time.
Speaker 2: Is that before COVID?
Speaker 1: Yes, that was like a month before everything really shut down.
Speaker 1: So pre wow, freak.
Speaker 2: You guys like, oh, it's gonna be like, that's gotta
Speaker 2: a big number six or eight fourteen.
Speaker 1: Well, I mean, obviously we know he's been amazing, but
Speaker 1: like you gotta think there's like one kind of misstep here.
Speaker 1: There just one where they ran the ball that didn't
Speaker 1: need him. But I mean he's one of the greatest
Speaker 1: postseason players in history really, so that's that's not exactly
Speaker 1: going on in a limb. I like that one Welsh
Speaker 1: what do you think?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean it's a high number, but historically kind
Speaker 3: of says it. Also defensive coverage wise, I think they
Speaker 3: run a lot of like too high zone. So like
Speaker 3: that middle of the field is opened up, and that
Speaker 3: is I struggle with two things. It's that is going
Speaker 3: to open up for them, and that's going to put
Speaker 3: up good placement for Travis kelcey. But also, if you're
Speaker 3: the Buffalo Bills, what's the one thing that you want
Speaker 3: to stop. It's Travis kelce that should be the hyper
Speaker 3: focus of anything. And that actually also leads into mind
Speaker 3: I'll just jump into it that I love Xavier Worthy.
Speaker 3: I love Xavier Worthy in this realm here fifty point
Speaker 3: five receiving yards over. I will tell you this, there's
Speaker 3: a sprinkle to go higher. Uh and maybe we'll talk
Speaker 3: about on the Betting Show this week, But there's some
Speaker 3: good odds if you want to jump up the yard marker.
Speaker 3: But for this I think he's going to be heavily involved.
Speaker 3: He has had nine or more targets in three of
Speaker 3: his last four games. Last week he had six targets,
Speaker 3: five catches forty five yards. He did not get over.
Speaker 3: One of his biggest problems Xavier Worthy has been he
Speaker 3: is really even though he can stretch the field, he's
Speaker 3: not really been like an a doc guy, Like he
Speaker 3: doesn't have like a great depth of target. He'll get
Speaker 3: the ball in shorter yardages and make plays. In fact,
Speaker 3: he has not gone over one hundred yards this entire season.
Speaker 3: I actually don't think he has gone over. Eighty seventy
Speaker 3: nine is his total on the season. But as far
Speaker 3: as his coverage goes, I think this works pretty well
Speaker 3: for him. The last matchup, they had four catches sixty
Speaker 3: one yards and a touchdown. And also in the playoffs
Speaker 3: so far for Xavier Worthy, he has a thirty five
Speaker 3: percent first read Did you know only one one wide
Speaker 3: receiver has a higher first read percentage in the playoffs.
Speaker 3: That's Khalil Shakir by the way, So those two with
Speaker 3: the highest first read percentages of their team, but Xavier
Speaker 3: are Worthy number one in design plays of the players
Speaker 3: that are still out there, sixty six percent design play
Speaker 3: of any of the active players that are still out there,
Speaker 3: so they want to get him the ball a lot.
Speaker 3: His receptions are really jewic sed up. It's a low
Speaker 3: receiving yard total because everyone doesn't know what to do,
Speaker 3: but we know he can break one big play. I'm
Speaker 3: heavy heavy on Xavier Worthy because I do think the
Speaker 3: defensive plan is going to be straight shut down Travis Kelce.
Speaker 3: They have not established a great running game Isaiah Pacheko.
Speaker 3: It's like, hey, look he's here for two drives and
Speaker 3: he's gone, and then it's like Kareem. They just don't
Speaker 3: have this great established run game. If you shut down Kelsey,
Speaker 3: they're gonna have to go to other spots. But either way,
Speaker 3: we know Worthy is going to be that guy with
Speaker 3: high first read and high design plays. So I love
Speaker 3: Xavier Worthy to go off in this game. So the
Speaker 3: easy plays will just take his over receiving yards at
Speaker 3: fifty at fifty point five.
Speaker 1: To think this one ericson, I like it.
Speaker 2: I mean Xavier Worthy. The last time he played the
Speaker 2: Buffalo Bills, he had four catches for sixty one yards
Speaker 2: and a touchdown. So he's already done it in this
Speaker 2: particular matchup. He's been consistent. Last six games, he has
Speaker 2: at least five catches. So, yes, we look at Kelsey
Speaker 2: and what he's been able to do in the postseason.
Speaker 2: But when you're just looking at consistency, right, who is
Speaker 2: the Bills. We know they have Kalii Shakur, like that's
Speaker 2: been their consistent guy, and in the second half of
Speaker 2: the season, it's been Exaber Worthy that's really been that
Speaker 2: consistent guy, whereas like Hopkins will randomly show up or
Speaker 2: Marky's Brown will randomly show up, but then they disappear
Speaker 2: the next week. So I think that Worthy makes the
Speaker 2: most sense here. And really, I mean he's taken on.
Speaker 2: He's following the exact path we saw Roshie Rice fall
Speaker 2: last year, right, kind of up and down first half
Speaker 2: of the year as a rookie, We're like, oh my god,
Speaker 2: here's this guy a bus he doesn't know how to
Speaker 2: get his feet and bounds what's going on? And then
Speaker 2: the second half of the season he starts to finally
Speaker 2: break out a merge, gain the trust of Patrick Mahomes,
Speaker 2: and be really involved. So if the Bills do try
Speaker 2: to neutralize and hone in on stop being Travis Kelcey. Well,
Speaker 2: they drafted Worthy in the first round for a reason,
Speaker 2: right to be another element to Patrick Mahomes. So I
Speaker 2: think that he's going to maintain a consistent role here
Speaker 2: generate yards out to the catch, So I think, yeah,
Speaker 2: he's gonna be a lot involved in. I think you
Speaker 2: could even look at even not even seventy receiving yards,
Speaker 2: but potentially just all purpose offensive yards because we know
Speaker 2: he also gets like an occasional rushing it.
Speaker 3: That's not posted yet though I completely agree. I would
Speaker 3: have posted that, but they didn't posted a number. It's
Speaker 3: probably going to be at sixty, i'd imagine, because I
Speaker 3: think it's four point five on the rushing yards, and
Speaker 3: usually they put a little juice if you're taking both
Speaker 3: sides of those. But the other thing, by the way,
Speaker 3: just to add in since I jumped in, we both
Speaker 3: know why this is so great for Xavier Worthy is
Speaker 3: because DeAndre Hopkins doesn't exist anymore. He's not on the team,
Speaker 3: he's not part of any offense or any catches or
Speaker 3: anything like that. After last week we learn that he
Speaker 3: did something wrong and he's no longer involved in the offense.
Speaker 3: So even more for exavier' worthy.
Speaker 1: All Right, guys, who is winning this game? The line
Speaker 1: is Chiefs minus one and a half at home in arrowhead.
Speaker 1: The total it's actually the same total for both matchups
Speaker 1: on Sunday forty seven and a half. So in this one,
Speaker 1: do you like the over? Do you like the under?
Speaker 1: Do you like the Chiefs minus the points? Do you
Speaker 1: like the Bills with the points? Ericson? What say you?
Speaker 2: I'm gonna take Chiefs to win, Chiefs money line. I'm
Speaker 2: not gonna mess around with these spreads, with the team's
Speaker 2: taking automatic safeties. I'm not doing I'm not dealing with
Speaker 2: this stuff. It's all rigged anyway. So it's gonna take
Speaker 2: Chiefs to win. Start again, take the Chiefs in the rest?
Speaker 1: Do you a do you have a feeling on the total?
Speaker 2: I like the under in this game forty eight and
Speaker 2: a half. I think it's just looking at Hey, these
Speaker 2: two quarterbacks are gonna throw for a bazillion yards. But
Speaker 2: the Bills have shown, Hey, we like to run the football.
Speaker 2: Maybe they do that a little bit more, even if maybe,
Speaker 2: I mean I think if they want to win this,
Speaker 2: I think if you're projecting a Bill's upset. I think
Speaker 2: they would win in a high scoring game, but because
Speaker 2: I think the alternative where the Chiefs win, I think
Speaker 2: it's the classic Airhead Stadium. Maybe a twenty four to
Speaker 2: twenty one game that's tighter, and the Chiefs what do
Speaker 2: they do in tight games? They win?
Speaker 1: So, just to clarify, it's forty seven and a half,
Speaker 1: not forty eight and a half.
Speaker 2: Oh forty seven? OK? Still right?
Speaker 1: Well what do you think?
Speaker 3: Yeah? I like the Chiefs. I'll take the spread one
Speaker 3: and a half. I don't know what the difference on
Speaker 3: the what is it like one fifteen one and a
Speaker 3: half and like one twenty five for the money line,
Speaker 3: I'd be fine too, But I think one and a
Speaker 3: half is probably an easy play. I also like the
Speaker 3: over in this one. I think this is going to
Speaker 3: be close. I think this probably comes down to a
Speaker 3: field goal. We have seen you get all these mixed
Speaker 3: missed extra points and whatnot that there definitely is a
Speaker 3: play where you could have, like, you know, a team
Speaker 3: that is down by one. But even in that same instance,
Speaker 3: if you have a team that is down, let's say
Speaker 3: Chiefs are down by one point going into that final drive,
Speaker 3: they kick a field goal they win by two. So
Speaker 3: I'm comfortable with the spread, and I do like the over.
Speaker 3: I have the implied two touchdowns on Josh Allen. I
Speaker 3: don't think there's going to be any runaway. I think
Speaker 3: these teams are both going to score some points. I
Speaker 3: think it is going to be played in the air
Speaker 3: a bit more. So give me the over and give
Speaker 3: me the Chiefs minus one and a half.
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Speaker 1: All right, guys, Commanders Eagles, we'll start on the commander's side. Welsh,
Speaker 1: what's your prediction?
Speaker 3: All right, going over to the commanders, let's go to
Speaker 3: Jayden Daniels, and I actually think there's a lot in play.
Speaker 3: Not going to do the completions again twenty two point five,
Speaker 3: the ends at twenty two, but we know he is
Speaker 3: going to sling the ball. I'm going to go with
Speaker 3: passing yards for Jayden Daniels going over to twenty four.
Speaker 3: I will also throw out another one that I like,
Speaker 3: is over two fifty is plus one seventy. He's gone
Speaker 3: over this two twenty four number, though, in five of
Speaker 3: his last six games, including the Eagles, Daniels has attempted
Speaker 3: thirty or more passes in six straight games if you
Speaker 3: do not include that week eighteen. We'll talk about the
Speaker 3: commanders here in a little bit, but this team, clearly,
Speaker 3: I mean, obviously Jade Daniels is going to do plenty
Speaker 3: with his legs, but he is throwing the ball, and
Speaker 3: he's throwing the ball with accuracy. You now have Diamie Brown,
Speaker 3: You've got Zach Gieus, You've obviously got Terry McLaurin. Zach
Speaker 3: Ertz is going to be heavy. He's got his targets, Eckler,
Speaker 3: Brian Robinson. They can move the ball, and what he
Speaker 3: does with his legs changes the scope of defenses. Overall.
Speaker 3: That has worked so well for his accuracy, and that's
Speaker 3: like the big thing. It's not just he's slaying the
Speaker 3: ball in hooks. He's such a good accurate quarterback though,
Speaker 3: and he moves around in the pocket. He is enabling
Speaker 3: opportunities for his wide receivers to get open. And they
Speaker 3: have met the call and there's some big play guys
Speaker 3: in there. So to twenty four, I know, you know
Speaker 3: Eagles in general, that feels a little bit difficult, but
Speaker 3: that is how this team wins the game. You could
Speaker 3: also view it as they win it by Jadan Daniels
Speaker 3: moving the ball with his legs. But it's a pretty
Speaker 3: high number at fifty two. I love this one. Two
Speaker 3: twenty four overpassing yards even like I said, maybe on
Speaker 3: the betting Pro side. I'll talk about sprinkling a tiny
Speaker 3: bit more at that two point fifty and plus money,
Speaker 3: but we will take that low passing yard total.
Speaker 1: How do you see this one, Erickson?
Speaker 3: I like this one.
Speaker 2: You know one player that's consistently been beating his passing
Speaker 2: arts projection every single week has been Jade Daniels. Last
Speaker 2: five full games that he's played, he surpassed his passing
Speaker 2: arts projection. So even hasn't always been over two hundred
Speaker 2: and twenty four passing yards, he's always passed for more
Speaker 2: yards than what he was expected to do, and that
Speaker 2: includes a game against the Philadelphia Eagles, where has been
Speaker 2: one of the tougher passed evens is only three quarterbacks
Speaker 2: all year have actually gone over their passing arts projection
Speaker 2: since they kind of turned the corner after their bye week,
Speaker 2: Lamar Jackson at the Stafford last week, and then Jadan
Speaker 2: Daniels when he faced the Eagles earlier this season. So yeah,
Speaker 2: I see no reason why to fade away from Jayde
Speaker 2: Daniels Rookie of the year quarterback sensation doesn't play anything
Speaker 2: like a rookie quarterback.
Speaker 1: How much, just before getting more of the specific predictions,
Speaker 1: how much for you guys, are you weighing the previous
Speaker 1: two matchups, because obviously, as you've kind of alluded to,
Speaker 1: this isn't just you know, sometimes you see a rematch
Speaker 1: later in the playoffs, but these are divisional opponents that
Speaker 1: know each other well, that played twice this year already.
Speaker 1: How much weight do you do you give to the
Speaker 1: stats you saw in those games when trying to make
Speaker 1: predictions for this week?
Speaker 2: Well, I'm picking the Eagles to win spoiler. So that
Speaker 2: and that goes into my consideration where yes, Daniels has
Speaker 2: looked fantastic these last two playoff games. He's faced the
Speaker 2: tamp Bay Buccaneers and the Detroit Lions after they lost
Speaker 2: their one good cornerback at the beginning of the game,
Speaker 2: I mean Robinson who got hurt after he played a
Speaker 2: really great game the week before. So yeah, I think
Speaker 2: it doesn't matter, and especially because it's really going from
Speaker 2: one end to the spectrum to the other. Like the
Speaker 2: Buccaneers and lines defenses were bottom of the league, like
Speaker 2: outside the top thirty, and now you're going up to
Speaker 2: the Eagles, which is not just top five, but number
Speaker 2: one overall in terms of just total pass defense. So
Speaker 2: that being said, Dales has done it already against this
Speaker 2: Eagles defense, and Quinya Mitchell is also dealing with an injury,
Speaker 2: so it remains to be seen whether he's going to play,
Speaker 2: but he would obviously be a significant loss as a
Speaker 2: cornerback for the past defense.
Speaker 3: I think, like the matchups, they're important because it does
Speaker 3: show what they've done against that defense. But obviously things
Speaker 3: have changed, aggression has changed in the playoffs. Part of
Speaker 3: my problem is that, like I think, one of the
Speaker 3: biggest glaring holes of really any team that you look
Speaker 3: at in the playoffs right now is literally the Eagles
Speaker 3: pass offense, like Saikwon Barkley is going to get it done,
Speaker 3: like they're going to feed him the rock. You probably
Speaker 3: would benefit from screen passes. Again, they threw to him
Speaker 3: four time on why the egal I mean, I know
Speaker 3: why they didn't need to guy rush for two thousand yards,
Speaker 3: but they don't really throw to him a bunch. I
Speaker 3: think I have a lot of short line stuff because
Speaker 3: there is something in that pass offense that aj Brown
Speaker 3: has been telling us that just doesn't work like that.
Speaker 3: So that's the most glaring hole with it. So you say, like,
Speaker 3: you know, what's the importance of pass matchups. I think
Speaker 3: they give us a baseline, but I think the recency
Speaker 3: is probably something that I'm hyper focused on, and I
Speaker 3: think the Eagles are going to score some points. They're
Speaker 3: going to do it on the ground. But at the
Speaker 3: same time, the Commanders have kept pace and that's like
Speaker 3: the most important thing to me is they have kept
Speaker 3: pace in games a lot, and the passing game is
Speaker 3: going to be a big, huge focal point for it.
Speaker 3: So I'm not sure I can give a full answer,
Speaker 3: like I think it's important, but it also isn't like
Speaker 3: the be all end all, if you know, the Eagles
Speaker 3: were on some big crazy tear, which I really don't
Speaker 3: think they are.
Speaker 1: Eric saying, what's your prediction for this one.
Speaker 2: I'm going with Brian Robinson's going to rush for over
Speaker 2: thirty five and a half rushing yards. So his prop
Speaker 2: was around this number last week and he totally smashed
Speaker 2: it into smithereens, and I liked the under and I
Speaker 2: was quickly proven wrong by Brian Robinson. So he's been
Speaker 2: over this number in three of his last six games,
Speaker 2: so fifty to fifty hit rate. But the Eagles defense
Speaker 2: talked about the pass defense a little bit they lost
Speaker 2: na Kobe Dean a couple of weeks back. He didn't
Speaker 2: play in this game against the rams Kyan Williams rushed
Speaker 2: for over one hundred and six over one hundred yards
Speaker 2: one hundred and six rushing yards. So I think that
Speaker 2: the Commanders they do want to run. The football established
Speaker 2: to run, and I think that you can run a
Speaker 2: little bit on this Eagles defense. Last four running necks
Speaker 2: the Eagles of face have gone over their rushing yards projection.
Speaker 2: He was effective in the first time that they played.
Speaker 2: He rushed for sixty three yards in the first matchup.
Speaker 2: The second matchup he was limited to just twenty four.
Speaker 2: But if I'm going to get a middling number, that's
Speaker 2: more around forty five rushing yards, right between sixty three
Speaker 2: and twenty four. But the prop is at thirty five
Speaker 2: and a half rushing yards. So I then after last week,
Speaker 2: I thought this number was going to be much higher,
Speaker 2: anticipating it to be much bigger, but it's still really
Speaker 2: low at thirty five and a half rushing yards. So
Speaker 2: I think the low bar for him the pass. He's
Speaker 2: already done it against his Eagles defense once before, and
Speaker 2: I think it's gonna be extra motivated because if you
Speaker 2: recall in the match the last time he faced at Philly,
Speaker 2: that's when he had two fumbles. So he had a
Speaker 2: really bad game the last time he played Philly. But
Speaker 2: with the know Nikobe Dean, you know defense, I think
Speaker 2: that they can run on a little bit without Nikobe Dean.
Speaker 2: Like I said, I like taking the over on Brian Robinson.
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Speaker 1: to claim your prize. All right on the eagle side
Speaker 1: of this one, Welsh, what do you got?
Speaker 3: All right? I think the biggest struggle with Jalen Hurts
Speaker 3: has been the passing game, so they are going to run,
Speaker 3: but you're going to see plenty of opportunities where he
Speaker 3: is going to drop back and then he is going
Speaker 3: to take the ball and run it himself. So thirty
Speaker 3: two rushing yards is the marker for Jalen Hurts here
Speaker 3: versus the fifty two or fifty three that Jaden Daniels
Speaker 3: has already got. Now. Washington in general has actually been
Speaker 3: a little bit more stout as far as stopping quarterbacks
Speaker 3: from running. But they're implying I believe it's like eight
Speaker 3: carries for Jalen Hurts right now, and he went over
Speaker 3: this number thirty two point five in both matchups against Washington,
Speaker 3: so a fair point. It comes back to, like how
Speaker 3: much you care about previous matchups and the health of
Speaker 3: defenses and stuff. But he has done this before. Jalen
Speaker 3: Hurts also has had a longest rush. I thought this
Speaker 3: was interesting. He's had a longest rush of twenty two
Speaker 3: or more yards in four of his last five games,
Speaker 3: So just throwing this out to you as well. His
Speaker 3: longest rush prop if you're looking at the market, is
Speaker 3: eleven and a half right now. Since Week five, he
Speaker 3: has only one. I'm looking at it. Oh yeah yeah.
Speaker 3: Since week five, he has only one game passing more
Speaker 3: than thirty times a game. I saw my passing marker
Speaker 3: and I got confused, but that was one of my
Speaker 3: selling points. He is not throwing the ball since week five,
Speaker 3: only third over thirty passes. Once he is running, he
Speaker 3: is running the ball. He has not had massive, massive
Speaker 3: confidence in first read stuff. That aj Brown thing hasn't
Speaker 3: worked Alas Goddard has really looked well in the playoffs.
Speaker 3: He kind of gets a big play every single game.
Speaker 3: But he is going to take this down. He's gonna
Speaker 3: run it. I probably should look at what the pass
Speaker 3: attempts are because I want to go on the under.
Speaker 3: I'm going to go with the rushing yard Zoe Jalen
Speaker 3: hurts over thirty two point five and just pay attention
Speaker 3: to that longest rush as well.
Speaker 1: What do you think ericson?
Speaker 2: Well, the passing attempts is twenty four and a half,
Speaker 2: which he has hit Is.
Speaker 3: It really twenty four and a half.
Speaker 2: In two of his last ten games? That's that was
Speaker 2: actually I was thinking about making it out my prediction.
Speaker 2: Actually what under the throw for under twenty four and
Speaker 2: a half passing attempts. It's only moved one from last
Speaker 2: week was at twenty five and a half. But so
Speaker 2: my only reservation with this one, I'm afraid of his
Speaker 2: knee injury, which he is not.
Speaker 3: He hasn't said.
Speaker 2: I mean, he didn't run nearly as much after he
Speaker 2: got his knee. Bang, I'm gonna had the forty four
Speaker 2: rushing yard touchdown to start the game, and then I
Speaker 2: did feel like we didn't see him run as much
Speaker 2: and he didn't seem like he was very mobile. So
Speaker 2: that's my only concern, is I mean, so you're not
Speaker 2: concerned about the kne injury at all.
Speaker 3: Of course you should be, and that's why the implied
Speaker 3: number is lower. But he is still running regardless. I mean,
Speaker 3: he hit seventy thirty six. He has hit this in
Speaker 3: five straight games. He has gone under He.
Speaker 2: Was healthy during though, That's what I mean. That's like,
Speaker 2: that's what I mean. But he did it last week. Yeah,
Speaker 2: but he did it before he injured his knee. Like
Speaker 2: that's that's what I'm trying to get Like, that's what
Speaker 2: I'm trying to get at here, Like I'm concerned about
Speaker 2: what if he just doesn't run at all? Because he
Speaker 2: can't because his knees banged up. Like, that's my cause
Speaker 2: again going back to what did the past matchups matter?
Speaker 2: None of these past matchups he had a banged up knee, Like,
Speaker 2: that's that's my concern.
Speaker 3: He's had under seven rush attempts once this entire year,
Speaker 3: and it was against Washington where he went over this
Speaker 3: number as well, So fair point. The knee definitely is
Speaker 3: in play, but he's still moving, he's still running well.
Speaker 2: To your point, you mentioned the longest rush, I feel
Speaker 2: like I like that more. Yeah, he doesn't necessarily need
Speaker 2: to run as much, but it's like, hey, I see
Speaker 2: an open I gotta take it. I know my knee hurts,
Speaker 2: but I gotta get this first down, and he gets
Speaker 2: the eleven and a half and then you're in and out,
Speaker 2: like to kind of like to have a gentleman's agreement here.
Speaker 2: I like that particular play on it, just so like
Speaker 2: I take away the risk of, well, he's only going
Speaker 2: to rush like three times or four times because he's
Speaker 2: concerned about his knees swelling up or something along those.
Speaker 3: So here's a prediction he'll have thirty rushing yards, but
Speaker 3: of a fifteen rush and worm and worm on the
Speaker 3: next show will go well. Welsh was spiritually correct when
Speaker 3: he says a fifteen rush, but he didn't get the yards.
Speaker 3: So I will be spiritually correct at.
Speaker 1: Least ericson what's your prediction?
Speaker 2: All right? And so just so I'm not just bashing
Speaker 2: on we Welsh's Eagles pick, I also don't love mine.
Speaker 2: Really what I'm looking back at it right now. AJ
Speaker 2: Brown over four and a half receptions. Now this one
Speaker 2: is at plus money. So it's more of a bold
Speaker 2: prediction because obviously the Eagles passing game has not been
Speaker 2: effective over the last couple of weeks. But AJ Brown
Speaker 2: last we had seven targets, had a thirty five percent
Speaker 2: target share. A last it was only two catches for
Speaker 2: fourteen yards. He had four targets in the first half.
Speaker 2: He also dropped two of his seven targets, So again
Speaker 2: a bit of a more of an outlier performance of
Speaker 2: what we've seen from AJ Brown over the entire season.
Speaker 2: But look, if they're ever going to get this passing
Speaker 2: game going, I think it is going to be through
Speaker 2: AJ Brown. Like again, going back to the target share
Speaker 2: last week, thirty five percent. This is one of the
Speaker 2: lowest we've ever seen his like receptions prop down at
Speaker 2: four and a half, so at plus money odds, I
Speaker 2: do kind of think that's kind of interesting. If they're
Speaker 2: going to have to pass in this game, I think
Speaker 2: is going to be through aj Brown. But yeah, so
Speaker 2: we'll see again. If I'm going to pick any of
Speaker 2: my picks to bust, it's going to be this one.
Speaker 2: But hey, I've been trying to bake all the right
Speaker 2: picks the last couple weeks and I've been over so
Speaker 2: maybe picking one that I'm not so confident we'll actually hit.
Speaker 2: So Welsh rip me a part.
Speaker 3: No, I mean not like it's great odds. Like if
Speaker 3: if you're looking from like an odds standpoint, you get
Speaker 3: plus money on that. I like it. It's just like
Speaker 3: we said before. I don't I don't think Jalen Hurts
Speaker 3: trust in his passing game. I don't think the offense
Speaker 3: trust in his passing game. There have been matchups, like
Speaker 3: with teams historically that you would pass about and it
Speaker 3: just doesn't continue to happen. But I mean we're on
Speaker 3: conflicting sites. The other thing I want to pointed back,
Speaker 3: but we go back to my Jalen Hurts. If I
Speaker 3: remember correctly, didn't the first playoff of him like with
Speaker 3: the knee injury, wasn't didn't he run for a first down?
Speaker 3: Wasn't like eleven or twelve yards like on one of
Speaker 3: the first players that injury.
Speaker 2: No that he did twelve yard rush?
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, yeah, no yard rush area. Yeah. If I
Speaker 3: were looking for great odds, Eagles bet, and I think
Speaker 3: the Eagles are going to play really well in this game,
Speaker 3: that would be one of my favorites. Why wouldn't we
Speaker 3: do Secon one Barkley if I remember correctly looking yesterday,
Speaker 3: one hundred and thirty. Yes, rushing yards is the rushing
Speaker 3: yard prop like, you don't mess with that type of stuff.
Speaker 3: It's like twenty one or twenty two carries. You're not
Speaker 3: messing with that stuff. And you want to be involved
Speaker 3: in saquony, can't you tell you can't do any of
Speaker 3: that stuff. So if I think the Eagles are going
Speaker 3: to be successful in this game, it is going to
Speaker 3: be them getting the ball to aj Brown, probably screen
Speaker 3: passing to AJ Brown a couple of times, let him
Speaker 3: do some stuff in some open field. So that's why
Speaker 3: I think this one would be successful. I'm not as
Speaker 3: much on the Eagles, and I'm super bearish on their
Speaker 3: passing game in general, But I still think this can
Speaker 3: hit and the and Jalen Hurts could go under his
Speaker 3: past attempt, So I don't I don't think this is
Speaker 3: like a horrible one at all. Like that's a receiver
Speaker 3: I wo'd want to bet on.
Speaker 2: I can't believe that Sego Markley's rushing pop is on.
Speaker 3: It's one hundred and thirty is it still? It was
Speaker 3: one hundred and thirty yards When I looked at us, like, oh,
Speaker 3: I wonder this would be fun to see it.
Speaker 2: And we're talking about this, I'm thinking about last week
Speaker 2: when we didn't learn our last time about Travis, Like
Speaker 2: should we just be taking the over?
Speaker 1: I was just about like like yes, if I was
Speaker 1: like forced to pick aside, I would pick the over.
Speaker 3: What would the all two hundred be? I want to
Speaker 3: see what the all one friend of the rust for
Speaker 3: two hundred yards?
Speaker 2: Again, you could get three to one that he's going
Speaker 2: to go over two hundred yards.
Speaker 3: That's ridiculous.
Speaker 1: I'd aj Brown just to know. He has not hit
Speaker 1: the over on four and a half receptions since Week sixteen,
Speaker 1: that way against the Commanders.
Speaker 2: So yeah, he also got like eighteen targets from Kenny Pickett,
Speaker 2: and I think that he almost like I'm honestly afraid
Speaker 2: that he could get more pass interferences than catches in
Speaker 2: this game if Latimore is on him, because Latimer like
Speaker 2: was flagging him left and right back in week sixteen.
Speaker 3: So that's the next big bet, by the way, for
Speaker 3: the market. So they need to go receptions plus pis
Speaker 3: and just be like, you know, six and a half,
Speaker 3: just add two on each. That's the next big I
Speaker 3: might be like a price pick.
Speaker 2: We should we should normalize defensive pass interference calls as
Speaker 2: fantasy points. Diould get a point I've always.
Speaker 1: Got, like like should it be like you get half
Speaker 1: the points.
Speaker 2: Or or I think I half a point where I
Speaker 2: think you should get something right if you get held
Speaker 2: on it, what could be a seventy yard touchdown? I
Speaker 2: got like you did your you did all your job, man,
Speaker 2: like it's not your fault that the guy drew the flag,
Speaker 2: like and.
Speaker 1: Yeah, but I mean the time too, if you if
Speaker 1: if it's based on if you did your job, Like
Speaker 1: if a quarterback throws a perfect pass and it's dropped,
Speaker 1: does he get half the passing yards that he should
Speaker 1: have gotten like he did his job.
Speaker 3: I mean, you're turning into like air yards. You just
Speaker 3: you just want like a normal yard.
Speaker 2: What do you think is should be worth more points
Speaker 2: in fantasy? A oh, I caught this pass behind line
Speaker 2: of scrimmage from minus five yards or I drew a
Speaker 2: seventy yard past interference call.
Speaker 3: I mean I agree one of those is one of.
Speaker 2: Those is worth way more points. It is actually scores
Speaker 2: fantasy points, and one of them doesn't.
Speaker 3: I agree, but it but like coming back to it,
Speaker 3: aren't you kind of saying like, okay, let's just put
Speaker 3: air yards as the yard marker in fantasy instead of
Speaker 3: actual receiving yards.
Speaker 2: Well, no, because if you drop a ball, you don't
Speaker 2: get points.
Speaker 3: I'm just like just.
Speaker 2: On just on flags because like you could have caught it.
Speaker 3: Did the p I account for air yards?
Speaker 2: Yes, I think it does, but it depends on I
Speaker 2: know some systems. It depends on if you filter penalties
Speaker 2: or not penalties. Same thing with targets, Like some systems
Speaker 2: don't account for it. I do.
Speaker 1: I do think it's a slippery slope to be like
Speaker 1: you did everything right, because like I mean, even a
Speaker 1: receiver like if you break off a really clean route
Speaker 1: and the quarterback looks the other direction, the receiver did
Speaker 1: everything right, Like.
Speaker 2: Hey, yeah, that sucks.
Speaker 3: I do, but I'm saying I think it it's like
Speaker 3: a betting mark could just being like six point five
Speaker 3: receptions plus p. I like, that's how for fantasy. I
Speaker 3: don't know, you would have to figure something out. I
Speaker 3: think betting it's actually like it's the other thing.
Speaker 1: Two is they sometimes they call pass interference and I'm like,
Speaker 1: I don't think that guy was gonna catch that ball anyway.
Speaker 1: Like I know, they specifically have a rule where if
Speaker 1: they deem it to be uncatchable, they don't. You know,
Speaker 1: you're not supposed to call it, but like sometimes they
Speaker 1: call it, and I find myself thinking, I'm really confident
Speaker 1: he wasn't going to catch that, so he wasn't going
Speaker 1: to get those points anyway. So I think it's too
Speaker 1: much of a gray area.
Speaker 3: I'd be the fun thing. I'd be fun.
Speaker 1: I like the idea. And you know what, Eric saoning,
Speaker 1: if you want to commission a league like that, I
Speaker 1: will join it.
Speaker 2: You only get points from.
Speaker 1: Oh the penalty penalties only. That actually would be super fun.
Speaker 1: All right, Who's betting this game. The line has actually
Speaker 1: moved earlier I mentioned five and a half, it's six
Speaker 1: on DraftKings Eagles of course laying the six at home,
Speaker 1: and I believe the total has not moved. It's still,
Speaker 1: like I said before, the same as the other matchup
Speaker 1: forty seven and a half Welsh. What side do you
Speaker 1: like on those?
Speaker 3: I am going to play Washington money line, so obviously,
Speaker 3: like my spiritual play is plus six for Washington. But
Speaker 3: would I would go straight on to Washington. I just listen,
Speaker 3: Eagles can be a dominant team. Jalen Hurts just hasn't
Speaker 3: seemed right. I think you can definitely. You know, in
Speaker 3: playoff football, what are two things that win a run game?
Speaker 3: An established run game and a defense. And they absolutely
Speaker 3: have that. They have that to the fullest degree. But
Speaker 3: they just don't have that passing game, and I'm worried
Speaker 3: that's going to hold them back with a team like
Speaker 3: Washington that has been hyper aggressive, They're gonna leave it
Speaker 3: all out on the field. Jenden Daniels, I really do
Speaker 3: think is a special quarterback, and I think this guy
Speaker 3: is going to show out again. You're not going to
Speaker 3: see that crazy bad rookie play. You're gonna see zach
Speaker 3: Ertz heavily involved in this. I do worry about them
Speaker 3: kind of defensively, and so you're safe for play would
Speaker 3: obviously be you know, playing like Washington on a teaser
Speaker 3: or just straight up plus six. But I'm I'm gonna
Speaker 3: just go out here for our predictions and say Washing
Speaker 3: is gonna move on big plus money here against an
Speaker 3: Eagles team that I'll shut up if they Jalen Urchlows
Speaker 3: for three hundred yards and everything like that, won't be
Speaker 3: shocked when they play really well and that run game
Speaker 3: in defense gets them there. Because again we talked about
Speaker 3: those Trent dil for Matt Hasselbeck type teams that you
Speaker 3: just need a quarterback to do just enough for the
Speaker 3: rest to work. That definitely could be in play for
Speaker 3: this team. But I think I think Washington is on
Speaker 3: a hot streak right now, and I'm gonna bet on
Speaker 3: Jaye Daniels.
Speaker 1: Plus two thirty. I believe he is the line on
Speaker 1: on DraftKings for Commander's money line ericson how are you
Speaker 1: approaching this one from the team perspective?
Speaker 2: You see that cockle on my wings, Baby fly Eagles
Speaker 2: Fly I'm taking the Eagles. I'm taking the guy that
Speaker 2: has one hundred and thirty one yard rushing prop to
Speaker 2: be moved up.
Speaker 3: It went up. It's crazy.
Speaker 2: He's gonna run all over the Commanders cannot stop. I mean,
Speaker 2: if Jamier Gibbs had gotten ten more carries he would
Speaker 2: have rushed for Did he rush for two hundred yards?
Speaker 2: I don't know, he was way up there. They can't
Speaker 2: stop the run. So I get that Hurts is concerning,
Speaker 2: and that's kind of like the headline. So why is
Speaker 2: the line moving in favor of the Eagles, Because it's
Speaker 2: been a problem all year long, the Eagles passing game.
Speaker 2: But here's the thing, it hasn't mattered because their defense
Speaker 2: is elite and their rushing game is unstoppable. In my opinion,
Speaker 2: we have a season with Saquon Barkley. Yes, especially Jayden
Speaker 2: Daniels season has been as a rookie quarterback, tremendous. What
Speaker 2: Sequen Barkley is doing at the running back position is
Speaker 2: I don't even know what the right adjective is to
Speaker 2: describe it, because you're not even we're not even talking
Speaker 2: about Derek Henry when he rushed for two thousand yards overall,
Speaker 2: when you include the postseason, we're not even talking about
Speaker 2: Jamar Chase. He hat the triple crown, and he's gonna
Speaker 2: get zero Offensive Player of the Year votes because of
Speaker 2: Saquon Barkley, Like he is truly breaking the game at
Speaker 2: the running back position, which in twenty twenty five, I
Speaker 2: don't think anybody really could have projected.
Speaker 1: So do you agree with that? By the way, like
Speaker 1: that it should be such a blo I kind of
Speaker 1: think Jamar Chase should get I don't think he will
Speaker 1: look a triple im more impressive to me than at
Speaker 1: two thousand yards seas it's rarer.
Speaker 2: But just the way that the offense is with Markley,
Speaker 2: because I mean, this isn't he's doing like two it's
Speaker 2: like two hundred rushing yards like routine. It's one hundred
Speaker 2: one rushing yard Probably.
Speaker 1: There, I would vote for saquad and an Offensive Player
Speaker 1: of the Year. I just feel like I want to
Speaker 1: give credit to Jamar because I do too.
Speaker 2: But but I think back on and I'm like, if
Speaker 2: I was a voter, I would vote for Sae. Yeah, Like,
Speaker 2: and I think everyone else has come like how can
Speaker 2: we not give Chase any credit for what he did?
Speaker 2: Or Derrek Henry any credit because Sequon is doing what
Speaker 2: he is doing at such an extreme level that I mean,
Speaker 2: this is one of the greatest running back seasons I've
Speaker 2: ever seen ever, maybe the best, I don't know.
Speaker 1: So who do you guys want to see as a
Speaker 1: Super Bowl matchup now that we're down for? What matchup
Speaker 1: are you rooting for? And what team you know, really
Speaker 1: are you rooting for, because obviously our teams are no
Speaker 1: longer play.
Speaker 2: I I'll start. I wanted to be the Chiefs and
Speaker 2: Eagles because I think that would be the best game.
Speaker 2: I think if the Commanders get to the Super Bowl,
Speaker 2: I am very concerned that they would just get destroyed
Speaker 2: because that's my magas are because I think their defense
Speaker 2: is not is not good against Mahomes, against Josh.
Speaker 3: Allen, hands down, the worst defense in the would be in.
Speaker 2: Yeah, the last Yeah, definitely, I think they're the worst
Speaker 2: unit that's remaining. Maybe the Eagles passing game. I don't know,
Speaker 2: but I think it'd be because then these teams have
Speaker 2: played each other before Super Bowl rematch. And the thing
Speaker 2: about the Chiefs is e don't complains all they was
Speaker 2: playing close games, So you know what will be a
Speaker 2: close game if Kansas City is playing in the Super Bowl,
Speaker 2: so uh, that's what I will be. And I also
Speaker 2: have a ticket for the Eagles to win the NSC,
Speaker 2: so that would make me happy.
Speaker 3: Oh so you're in it. Yeah, I think the Eagles
Speaker 3: and Chiefs is probably the best. I'm indifferent, like if
Speaker 3: someone's like, oh, well you built okay, I don't care,
Speaker 3: Like I'm just indifferent about it. I think they're all
Speaker 3: going to be great. I think, like what you're saying,
Speaker 3: you're worried the Commanders are getting blown out, It really don't.
Speaker 3: I think that offense, I think Daniels is going to
Speaker 3: keep them into every single game, but that that defense
Speaker 3: is like, bar none the worst. I kind of feel
Speaker 3: like maybe they would match up best against the Bills.
Speaker 3: If you were to ask the question, what's the best
Speaker 3: path for the Commanders to win the Super Bowl Michael Bills,
Speaker 3: I might say Bills versus Commanders would be good there,
Speaker 3: but best, like on paper, game is probably going to
Speaker 3: be the Eagles and Chiefs. There's just still a part
Speaker 3: of me that's like, I don't know, man, Like I'd
Speaker 3: love to see the Eagles just play absolutely dominant ball
Speaker 3: this week to not think that the Chiefs were going
Speaker 3: to come in and just win again because we're all
Speaker 3: kind of and a Jefs fans aren't. I'm kind of
Speaker 3: tired of it, But they're also they're still the best,
Speaker 3: so I think it's a win win no matter what.
Speaker 3: I think. Commanders Bills would probably shiver. It would probably
Speaker 3: similar to the Diamondbacks and Rangers going into the World Series,
Speaker 3: where all the all the the commissioners and everything are
Speaker 3: like ooh, like that's not great. I'm not sure the
Speaker 3: Commanders and Bills would be their most favorite matchup from
Speaker 3: a selling and marketing standpoint.
Speaker 1: I've heard for the Eagles, my brother in law's an
Speaker 1: Eagles fan his Soule family, and he's raising my nephews
Speaker 1: to be Eagles fans, So I would you know, obviously
Speaker 1: I would pick the raven over them if it was
Speaker 1: head to head, but with the Ravens no longer an option,
Speaker 1: I'm pulling for them really for no other reason than that.
Speaker 1: And on the other side, like I am, I guess
Speaker 1: rooting for the Chiefs just because what's one more Super
Speaker 1: Bowl from Mahomes Like he already has a bunch, He's
Speaker 1: gonna get more like I just I would rather that
Speaker 1: happen than another one of these AFC quarterbacks, you know,
Speaker 1: just selfishly get one before Lamar does. But yeah, Eagles, Chiefs,
Speaker 1: I think is what I'm rooting forward With the Eagles
Speaker 1: pulling out on top.
Speaker 3: Of one pretty much anybody but Bills. It sounds like
Speaker 3: you're saying you're not You're not.
Speaker 1: Really, Bills would be last on my list strictly from
Speaker 1: a selfish fan of the Ravens and Lamar perspective. From
Speaker 1: a casual ignoring that bias perspective, Bills might be at
Speaker 1: the top of my list. Like, but so, I don't,
Speaker 1: you know, disparage anybody who has them on top of
Speaker 1: their list of their remaining teams. It's definitely just a
Speaker 1: you know, irrational fandom thing for me. But but yeah,
Speaker 1: Eagles is the easy one because the family rooting for him,
Speaker 1: for them, you know, Chiefs. I don't want the Chiefs
Speaker 1: to win, but I guess I want them to make
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl and then lose to whoever they're facing.
Speaker 1: So we'll see, we'll see how it plays out. I
Speaker 1: love Championship Sunday. I just seeing teams punch their ticket
Speaker 1: to the Super Bowl is almost more kind of cool
Speaker 1: and validating than seeing them in the Super Bowl, at
Speaker 1: least in my experience. So yeah, I'm really excited for Sunday.
Speaker 1: Going to be some fun games for Welsh and ericson
Speaker 1: I'm Ryan warmly thanks everybody for tuning in. We'll be
Speaker 1: back in a couple of weeks for our prediction show
Speaker 1: for the Super Bowl. We'll see then. Thanks for listening
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