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Speaker 1: What two three brights in the middle of the feelings

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Speaker 1: he loose football down in the one yard line? How

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Speaker 1: about that? That is the ultimate kabash.

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Speaker 2: And we are underway. Hello everyone, Welcome back to the

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Speaker 2: Action Network NFL podcast is the Conference Championship Friday Show.

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Speaker 2: I'm Matthew Friedman, the editor in chief of Fantasy Labs,

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Speaker 2: and joining me to break down this weekend's action is

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Speaker 2: Chris Raybon, a senior editor and analyst at The Action

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Speaker 2: Network and a co host of All Take That Bet

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Speaker 2: on ESPN Plus. You can follow him in the Action

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Speaker 2: Network app at Chris Raybon Chris. Last week we gave

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Speaker 2: some picks that we liked for the various games. For

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Speaker 2: the two picks where we directly oppose each other, the

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Speaker 2: Casey Indie Total Indie Patch Charger spread, I won and

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Speaker 2: you lost. So that's really the end of the show.

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Speaker 2: I have nothing more. Were uh no, any any takeaways

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Speaker 2: from the divisional round action that we saw last week?

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Speaker 3: I mean, yeah, I think you know, Tom Brady, that

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Speaker 3: was one of those games where the coaching made a difference.

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Speaker 3: You know, like the Patriots had such a great game

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Speaker 3: plan on both sides of the ball, and you could

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Speaker 3: like the Chargers didn't get into that game until like

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Speaker 3: the third quarter.

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Speaker 2: So coaching makes so much of a difference that I

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Speaker 2: can't even tell you right now the name of the

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Speaker 2: Chargers head coach. That's how man.

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Speaker 1: I mean, don't don't don't do Anthony Lynd like that.

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Speaker 1: I mean he's you know, he's no Vance Joseph.

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Speaker 2: No, he's he's not. So anyway, these these are the

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Speaker 2: four best teams. I think, you know that much was

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Speaker 2: kind of clear before the games, and it was clarified

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Speaker 2: after the games. So we have a really good weekend

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Speaker 2: of football ahead of us with I would say, you know,

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Speaker 2: the four best teams in football remaining, So that is

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Speaker 2: something to look forward to. On the Wednesday Show with

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Speaker 2: Peter Jennings, Shawn Corner, and Ian Hartitz, we looked at

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Speaker 2: the two games slate through a DFS perspective. For this episode,

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Speaker 2: we're going to break down each game this weekend and

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Speaker 2: then also look at each of the one game DFS slates.

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Speaker 2: As you are listening to the show, Please rate and

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Speaker 2: review the Action Network NFL podcast on iTunes, subscribe, unsubscribe,

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Speaker 2: and resubscribe, and for all of our written content to

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Speaker 2: go to the Action Network and Fantasy Labs. We are

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Speaker 2: still doing fantasy rankings and you can find those at

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Speaker 2: actionnetwork dot com slash Fantasy. Let's jump into it here,

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Speaker 2: the first game of the weekend, and I have to

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Speaker 2: say I don't like it that they push the games

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Speaker 2: back like a couple of hours, you know what I mean,

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Speaker 2: Like I feel like I'm getting robbed of my normal

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Speaker 2: Sunday routine. But anyway, it is what it is. The

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Speaker 2: first game. It's always been like that, though I know,

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Speaker 2: I know, I know, I just I it's so jarring

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Speaker 2: to me. You know. It's like Sunday and it's like, okay,

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Speaker 2: it's one pm Eastern time, and then it's like, oh no,

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Speaker 2: I have two hours just to sit and wait. So anyway,

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Speaker 2: all right, the NFC Championship game at three oh five

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Speaker 2: pm Eastern, the Rams at the Saints. There's been a

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Speaker 2: little bit of line movement. The Saints, now favored by

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Speaker 2: a fifty six point five over under. The spread in

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Speaker 2: total have hovered around these numbers pretty much for most

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Speaker 2: of the week. The Rams opened the season eight to

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Speaker 2: no but they struggled a little bit in the aftermath

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Speaker 2: of the Cooper Cup injury. But they have seemingly gotten

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Speaker 2: back on track to scoring at least thirty points in

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Speaker 2: each of the past three games. They've lost only three

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Speaker 2: times this year, but one of those losses did come

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Speaker 2: against the Saints, who beat the Rams forty five to

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Speaker 2: thirty five in Week nine. As for the Saints, they

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Speaker 2: lost in Week one, but since then they've lost only

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Speaker 2: one other time all year, in a game that actually mattered.

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Speaker 2: Once again, they get to face the Rams at home

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Speaker 2: in the Superdome. Chris, what are you doing with this game?

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Speaker 1: I think the Saints are probably the sharp side.

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Speaker 3: You know, we have our projections favor them by I

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Speaker 3: believe a point spread of four point six at the moment,

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Speaker 3: so that's a pretty good value. Yeah, it's tough for

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Speaker 3: me to bring myself to the way the points though

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Speaker 3: with New Orleans just you know, I think this.

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Speaker 1: Game could go either way.

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Speaker 3: I'm just a little bit concerned with how New Orleans

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Speaker 3: came out against Philly last week. I think that there's

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Speaker 3: definitely some recency bias that play with that. But I

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Speaker 3: mean that they struggled, they had to, you know, they

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Speaker 3: needed that fake punt in the first half.

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Speaker 1: Was it the first half or the third court? I

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Speaker 1: forget when I was.

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Speaker 3: Think of the first half, just just like score a

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Speaker 3: touchdown on like a fourth and one fourth and goal

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Speaker 3: from by the.

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Speaker 1: Skin of their teeth. I mean, they won that game

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Speaker 1: by the skin of their teeth.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, And that's.

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Speaker 3: A little bit concerning only because you know, we've kind

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Speaker 3: of seen this down the stretch line.

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Speaker 1: I mean, they've been you know, their record is dominant.

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Speaker 3: They might even be fourteen and too if they were

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Speaker 3: still they still needed to even get a win in

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Speaker 3: Week seventeen. I'm sure they could have, but I mean

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Speaker 3: the previous games before that, you know, they beat Carolina

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Speaker 3: twelve to nine on the road, and then they beat

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Speaker 3: Pittsburgh thirty one to twenty eight in New Orleans. So

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Speaker 3: they've been playing these kind of closer games, haven't been

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Speaker 3: quite as dominant, you know, as we saw earlier in

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Speaker 3: the year. So you know, I really think that in

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Speaker 3: this game, what it's going to come down to is coaching.

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Speaker 3: I think it's particularly for the Rams and Wade Phillips

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Speaker 3: because I think, you know, for as much as golf

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Speaker 3: has kind of struggled without Cooper Cup and he has,

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Speaker 3: you know, it's we have enough sample size to definitely

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Speaker 3: draw some conclusions there. I mean, if you look at

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Speaker 3: the Rams past success rates in the games with Cup,

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Speaker 3: they ranked second. When he's out they ranked thirteen. So

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Speaker 3: I think that's going to come into play. But on

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Speaker 3: the other side of the ball, Wade Phillips, they had

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Speaker 3: no answer for Michael Thomas in the first game. He

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Speaker 3: went bonkers, ended up with over two hundred yards a

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Speaker 3: seventy two yard touchdown in the fourth quarter, and a

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Speaker 3: lot of that came, as you pointed out in our

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Speaker 3: betting guides on Action Net or dot com slash NFL.

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Speaker 3: Marcus Peters was just destroyed in that game, and he

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Speaker 3: gave up seven catches for one hundred and forty six

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Speaker 3: yards and a touchdown to Thomas.

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Speaker 1: Now you have a key to lead back.

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Speaker 3: I think a large part of the outcome of this

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Speaker 3: game is going to be determined Wade Folks ability to

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Speaker 3: figure out what to do with Thomas, because he had

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Speaker 3: a very good opponent specific game plan against the Cowboys,

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Speaker 3: even though the Rams were one of the worst teams

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Speaker 3: against the run all season long. It's largely because, as

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Speaker 3: we've talked about, they're willing to concede the run. Ezekiel

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Speaker 3: Elliott they loaded the box on forty percent of his carries.

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Speaker 3: That's up from he faced loaded boxes on only twenty

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Speaker 3: five percent of his carries during the regular season.

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Speaker 1: It worked. Now they have a key to lead back

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Speaker 1: at you at their disposal.

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Speaker 3: They haven't really used them in shadow coverage, but I

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Speaker 3: think they might only because you know, Sean McVay has

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Speaker 3: kind of made it clear that they're going to switch

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Speaker 3: up their game plan. And the numbers with and without

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Speaker 3: to Leave are pretty stark, and they're interesting, and some

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Speaker 3: of this is strength to schedule of who they've played,

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Speaker 3: but without to Leave, they're giving up eight point seven

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Speaker 3: yards per attempt in a twenty three to six touchdown

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Speaker 3: to interception ratio, and then with to Leave in the lineup,

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Speaker 3: that drops to six point nine yards per attempt with

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Speaker 3: a nine to twelve touchdown to interception ratio. So kind

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Speaker 3: of night and day, and I would actually expect to

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Speaker 3: see some some some type of shadow coverage or bracket

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Speaker 3: something with to Weave. The under is actually five to

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Speaker 3: three and one with to Weave in, and it's three

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Speaker 3: and five with him out, So I'm actually gonna go

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Speaker 3: with the under in this game. I think it's a

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Speaker 3: pretty high considering what we've seen out of the Saints lately,

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Speaker 3: they've played kind of different styles of games. Like I

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Speaker 3: know that that the Saints are the sharp side, I

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Speaker 3: get it.

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Speaker 1: I think they are.

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Speaker 3: They deserve to be ranked where they are, but you know,

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Speaker 3: in a game like this, I think weird things could happen.

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Speaker 3: I think, and I think Sean McVay and I trust

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Speaker 3: Sean McVay and Wade Phillips.

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Speaker 1: They have their team.

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Speaker 3: Prepared, especially after they already got to kind of see

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Speaker 3: the crowd noise and see what it's like to get

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Speaker 3: ambushed by the Saints in the same building. We also

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Speaker 3: have some content on Action Network, really good article about

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Speaker 3: how you know rematches, and the Chiefs have like the

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Speaker 3: only positive rematch trend, which is when you have the

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Speaker 3: first game on the road and then you come home.

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Speaker 3: Teams like that are covering at They're twenty and sixteen,

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Speaker 3: so that's above a fifty cover rate, But all the

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Speaker 3: other trends, as far as these rematches, the you know,

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Speaker 3: the favorite team tends not to cover.

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Speaker 1: So I don't feel great about the Saints.

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Speaker 3: I know they're sharp side, but I'm going with the

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Speaker 3: under fifty six and a half here.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I feel great about the same, but I do

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Speaker 2: understand everything you said. And what does give me some pause.

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Speaker 2: Sue had a really good game last week, and I

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Speaker 2: think he still had an underappreciated year. It hasn't been

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Speaker 2: I think, like a flashy year, but I think he's

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Speaker 2: still done a pretty good job. And then Aaron Donald,

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Speaker 2: of course, is you know, like an all world player.

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Speaker 2: They are going against the three guys in the middle

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Speaker 2: of that Saints offense, that offensive line, the three guys

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Speaker 2: who are the weakest right like Andrews. Pete has been

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Speaker 2: one of the worst left guards in the NFL this year.

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Speaker 2: Max Unger hasn't been especially good at center, and then

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Speaker 2: you have Warford at right guard and he hasn't really

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Speaker 2: been that good. Like where this team is strong on

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Speaker 2: the offensive line is left tackle and right tackle. And

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Speaker 2: so even though you don't think of the Rams, is

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Speaker 2: a team that is able to stop the run, like

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Speaker 2: they were able to do it last week when they

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Speaker 2: needed to against a Dallas team that has been pretty

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Speaker 2: good running the ball. And the Saints are a team

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Speaker 2: with this like two headed backfield of Kamara and Ingram.

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Speaker 2: They are a team that is very much focused on

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Speaker 2: running the ball, but you know, the Rams were able

200
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Speaker 2: to shut it down last week. I could see Donald

201
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Speaker 2: and Sue having enough success on the interior of the

202
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Speaker 2: line to help that defense shut down the run again.

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Speaker 2: But I still trust Sean Payton, I trust Drew Brees,

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Speaker 2: I trust Michael Thomas, and I really trust Peters to

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Speaker 2: be able to kick up some long some long receptions

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Speaker 2: to Thomas. But Thomas is just it. It's like pitch

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Speaker 2: and catch out there, Like Thomas is just so dominant

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Speaker 2: right now that even if they shadow with Talib, and

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Speaker 2: you know, I don't know if they're going to like

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Speaker 2: that's just that's kind of not their style. And as

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Speaker 2: you mentioned, like it's a winner take all type of game,

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Speaker 2: so you you, I don't know, like teams not that

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Speaker 2: they're even going to do something desperate, but they're going

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Speaker 2: to think, Okay, we've got to do something, like we

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Speaker 2: have to make a change. So they might shadow with

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Speaker 2: t Leib. But even if to leave is on Thomas,

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Speaker 2: I still think Thomas can win that matchup. And then

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Speaker 2: even if to leave is on Thomas, I think Gain

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Speaker 2: can really burn Peters. So like I think, no matter

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Speaker 2: what it is that they do with that defensive backfield,

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Speaker 2: those wide receivers are going to be able to do enough.

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Speaker 2: And then I don't know if the Rams really have

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Speaker 2: a linebacker who can hang with Kamara in coverage. So

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Speaker 2: I still think that even if the Saints running game

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Speaker 2: isn't doing what they wanted to, they will still be

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Speaker 2: able to do enough in the passing game to bring

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Speaker 2: this home. Right, So playing at home, I just you know,

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Speaker 2: I feel pretty strongly on the Saints here, but I

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Speaker 2: am with you on the under, even though that kind

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Speaker 2: of goes against like my my core principle of, you know,

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Speaker 2: just almost blindly betting the over when it comes to

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Speaker 2: games at the Superdome. But this is this is kind

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Speaker 2: of one of those exceptions where because the Saints have

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Speaker 2: become such a run heavy team, the dynamics is a

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Speaker 2: little bit different there.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I you know, I think that's that's really been

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Speaker 3: the key for them. It's like that with these with

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Speaker 3: these totals, it's that that philosophy shift has kind of

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Speaker 3: changed everything, and the defensive improvement has. But I mean,

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Speaker 3: the Rams, how do what do we think of like

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Speaker 3: Sheldon Rankin's absence, because I think that's another kind of

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Speaker 3: it's definitely going to factor in in some way. The

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Speaker 3: Saints or a top three run defense this season. If

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Speaker 3: you look at their adjusted lineyards to each direction, they

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Speaker 3: were top you know, single in the single digits, top

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Speaker 3: nine against everything except runs straight up the gut essentially.

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Speaker 3: So with rankins out, you know, that could factor in

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Speaker 3: a little bit more with the Rams being able to

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Speaker 3: kind of to do some things up the middle, and

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Speaker 3: they're not being as much interior pressure on GoF who

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Speaker 3: does struggle when he is pressured more so than Breeze.

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Speaker 3: So that's the kind of thing that works in favorite Rams.

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Speaker 1: But I think I'm just.

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Speaker 3: Like, what do you make of these like that? How

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Speaker 3: the Saints came out last week? Because I was really

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Speaker 3: baffled by just how much they struggled on offense. Like

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Speaker 3: I knew Philly was a good defense. I knew they

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Speaker 3: had a top red zone and third down defense, and

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Speaker 3: I knew it wouldn't be easy. But I mean, the

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Speaker 3: Rams really won that game by the skinny their teeth

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Speaker 3: when you consider they needed to fake a punt in

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Speaker 3: the long drive and the eleven minute drive and then.

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Speaker 1: The Jeffrey drop, like all these games, Like what do

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Speaker 1: you make of this?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I think part of it was I mean,

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Speaker 2: it's hard to say, like the rust of you know,

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Speaker 2: having the bye week, but I think that might have

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Speaker 2: been part of it. And then I think also like

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Speaker 2: part of why I think they have a better chance

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Speaker 2: this week is I don't know, this might sound weird,

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Speaker 2: but I think they're almost kind of like in a

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Speaker 2: no lose situation with their run game. Either they're able

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Speaker 2: to use their running game the way that they want

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Speaker 2: and they will have success with that, or they won't

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Speaker 2: have success with the running game, which I think is

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Speaker 2: kind of the case last week, and then they pivot

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Speaker 2: quicker to the passing game, where I think they will

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Speaker 2: have success. So I think the sooner that they get

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Speaker 2: off of this run the ball mentality, the better it's

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Speaker 2: going to be for the team overall. But yeah, I

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Speaker 2: don't know how much stock I put in the slow

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Speaker 2: start last week and if that might translate to anything

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Speaker 2: we see this week, you know what I mean. I

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Speaker 2: just it's like it's it's a new week. It's a

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Speaker 2: team that they have some familiarity with, you know, they

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Speaker 2: they just played last week, so they're kind of like

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Speaker 2: back in the rhythm of like a normal week makes sense.

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Speaker 3: It makes sense, I you know, I they just that's

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Speaker 3: why I don't feel comfortable way in the point.

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Speaker 1: It's just I don't know they've looked a little bit often.

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Speaker 3: I just don't trust, Like I just feel like Sean

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Speaker 3: McVay and Wade Phillips are going to have something up

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Speaker 3: their sleeve, like the Saints. Of the two teams, like

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Speaker 3: the more the team, I think more likely it is,

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Speaker 3: like do something completely boneheaded. I mean it did hurt

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Speaker 3: the Rams last year in the players when they had

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Speaker 3: you know, like out of nowhere Faroh Cooper just like

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Speaker 3: fumbled away the whole game.

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Speaker 1: So they could go either way.

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Speaker 3: But am I the only one that like want doesn't

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Speaker 3: want both favorite teams to win, Like I want to

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Speaker 3: see either Patriots Saints to see like Brady Breeze, or

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Speaker 3: I want to see I want to see like McVeigh Belichick,

304
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Speaker 3: or I want to see like Chief Rants, Like I

305
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Speaker 3: don't really care to see Saints Chief Ballance.

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Speaker 2: For some reason, I think all four of the matchups

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Speaker 2: would be good, So it doesn't it doesn't really bother me.

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Speaker 2: Whatever it is that we get, Like, I'm gonna be

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Speaker 2: fairly excited about it because like sticking with the two

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Speaker 2: teams in this game. I do like both of the teams,

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Speaker 2: you know, Like I like McVeigh, I like Breeze, So

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Speaker 2: like either one of those teams making it like it

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Speaker 2: wouldn't bother me so much. And I think there is

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Speaker 2: sort of like this, I don't know, kind of irony

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Speaker 2: of like the Jeff fisherless Jeff Fisher team, like making

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Speaker 2: it to the same bowl, you know. So anyway, I mean,

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Speaker 2: I think there are there are definitely things to root for,

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Speaker 2: you know, regardless of whoever it is who makes it okay.

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Speaker 2: Up next, we're going to look at the NFC DFS

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Speaker 2: late right after we check in with John Ewing for

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Speaker 2: some trend based sports betting insight.

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Speaker 4: Good data is always in fashion. Here's John Ewing with

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Speaker 4: trend of the week.

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Speaker 5: It is halftime of the conference championship game. The odds

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Speaker 5: makers just posted the second half lines.

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Speaker 1: Who do you take?

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Speaker 5: The best strategy for wagering on second half playoff lines

328
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Speaker 5: is to bet pregame favorites who are tied or trailing

329
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Speaker 5: at the half. Unlike in the regular season, motivation is

330
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Speaker 5: high in postseason games, and playoff teams tend to be

331
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Speaker 5: good at making in game adjustments. Betting Pregame favorites who

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Speaker 5: are tied or losing at halftime have gone thirty eight,

333
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Speaker 5: twenty five and three against the spread on second half lines.

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Speaker 5: That's a sixty percent win rate since two thousand and five.

335
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Speaker 5: It's a small sample, but the results have been consistent,

336
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Speaker 5: with only two postseasons having losing ATS records in the

337
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Speaker 5: past fourteen years. The Saints are three and a half

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Speaker 5: point favorites versus the Rams in the NFC Championship on Sunday,

339
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Speaker 5: while the Chiefs are three point favorites in the AFC

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Speaker 5: title game. If the Saints or Chiefs are tied or

341
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Speaker 5: losing at halftime, there's value betting on them in the

342
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Speaker 5: second half.

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Speaker 2: All Right, That was John. Be sure to check out

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Speaker 2: his sports betting articles each week at the Action Network. Chris,

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Speaker 2: for the second part of the show, let's talk about

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Speaker 2: some of the the DFS implications of this NFC showdown slate.

347
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Speaker 2: I mean, what are you doing with this slate. You

348
00:16:07,080 --> 00:16:09,040
Speaker 2: have breeze, you have golf, Like there's just sort of

349
00:16:09,080 --> 00:16:12,480
Speaker 2: like wonderful weapons all the way around, except at tight end,

350
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Speaker 2: you know, so you know we're tight end. It's just

351
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Speaker 2: sort of like a waste land. But what do you

352
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Speaker 2: where are you starting with this slate?

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Speaker 3: I think I'm still going I'm going Kamara in the

354
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Speaker 3: in the captain spot in this in this game, because

355
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Speaker 3: the way this late is kind of set up like

356
00:16:28,200 --> 00:16:30,560
Speaker 3: if you go with Kamara, you can you can get

357
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Speaker 3: in breeze GoF early Ingram and then you just punt

358
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Speaker 3: with like a Josh Hill, who you know, doesn't you

359
00:16:36,320 --> 00:16:39,360
Speaker 3: don't really expect much out of him, but yeah, like

360
00:16:39,480 --> 00:16:42,200
Speaker 3: seeing these two hundred bucks on Traftkings and he's on

361
00:16:42,440 --> 00:16:45,560
Speaker 3: He's actually been running more routes and playing more snaps

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Speaker 3: than Ben Watson for quite.

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Speaker 1: Some time now.

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Speaker 3: So you know, anytime you're on the field with Drew

365
00:16:50,360 --> 00:16:54,560
Speaker 3: Brees at home, good things can happen in regression progression

366
00:16:54,680 --> 00:16:57,120
Speaker 3: to the me you know can benefit you.

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Speaker 1: So that's probably the lineup that's probably the right I'm going.

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Speaker 3: It's not really a slate where you can do too much.

369
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Speaker 3: I think if you if you try to. I don't

370
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Speaker 3: think this is like last week. I thought it was

371
00:17:06,760 --> 00:17:08,760
Speaker 3: more of like the jam in Michael Thomas Lee and

372
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Speaker 3: I still like Thomas obviously is a threat every week,

373
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Speaker 3: but he has had some some games where against you know,

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Speaker 3: in good matchups where he's had kind of these socio games.

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Speaker 3: So you know, I don't I think you kind of

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Speaker 3: want to go back to that. Get the quarterbacks in,

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Speaker 3: get the top running backs in.

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Speaker 1: What do you where are you on? Because this is

379
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Speaker 1: kind of an interesting one. Mark Ingram yeah? Or CJ.

380
00:17:29,840 --> 00:17:30,520
Speaker 1: Anders Yeah?

381
00:17:30,880 --> 00:17:32,520
Speaker 2: You know it's funny because I was going to ask

382
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Speaker 2: you about CJ. Anderson. I think CJ. Anderson for me,

383
00:17:36,240 --> 00:17:39,639
Speaker 2: I think pretty clearly, like I don't even when Ingram

384
00:17:39,680 --> 00:17:42,560
Speaker 2: has sort of like a quote unquote peak game, it's

385
00:17:42,600 --> 00:17:45,800
Speaker 2: never anything that really looks good. He wasn't really all

386
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Speaker 2: that good last week except for one run. I don't.

387
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Speaker 2: I mean, I don't think Ingram is really all that

388
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Speaker 2: good of a player at this point. And I think

389
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Speaker 2: it sounds like me in the preseason. Yeah, I mean, yeah,

390
00:17:57,280 --> 00:17:59,280
Speaker 2: I think I do. You know, I don't think he's

391
00:17:59,280 --> 00:18:01,040
Speaker 2: that good of a player at this point. You know,

392
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Speaker 2: like you're basically hoping that he gets a touchdown, whereas

393
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Speaker 2: and I guess it's like kind of always the case

394
00:18:07,480 --> 00:18:09,560
Speaker 2: in slaves like this and with running backs, but like

395
00:18:09,640 --> 00:18:12,239
Speaker 2: Anderson is just a better player. I think he has

396
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Speaker 2: a higher likelihood actually of getting a touchdown, So I

397
00:18:15,680 --> 00:18:19,760
Speaker 2: don't think it's really even close. Like I really prefer CJ. Anderson.

398
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Speaker 3: It's interesting because you know, like he's kind of the

399
00:18:22,640 --> 00:18:25,360
Speaker 3: same He's kind of going to play the same role.

400
00:18:25,440 --> 00:18:28,320
Speaker 3: Now you would think, you know, Todd Gurley played fifty

401
00:18:28,320 --> 00:18:31,320
Speaker 3: three percent of the snaps, Anderson actually out touched him

402
00:18:31,359 --> 00:18:34,520
Speaker 3: twenty three to eighteen. So you know, if for all

403
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Speaker 3: the listeners out there, Action Network we're doing another our

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Speaker 3: biggest prop contest ever for this Championship weekend, all of

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Speaker 3: our personalities submitted a question, so it's what is it?

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Speaker 1: Fifteen questions? Yeah, fifteen questions.

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Speaker 3: My mind was which running back is going to get

408
00:18:50,080 --> 00:18:52,360
Speaker 3: the most touches this weekend? And I think it's really

409
00:18:52,359 --> 00:18:55,960
Speaker 3: an interesting question because of how CJ. Anderson affects that dynamic,

410
00:18:56,000 --> 00:18:58,159
Speaker 3: because if not, I mean, Girley is obviously the one

411
00:18:58,200 --> 00:19:00,119
Speaker 3: who led you know, all of the backs on the

412
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Speaker 3: slate in touch but like last week, the exact reverse order.

413
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Speaker 2: I mean, I would say it is a stone cold

414
00:19:07,160 --> 00:19:11,480
Speaker 2: lock that it's not Ingram, you know, you know, like

415
00:19:11,520 --> 00:19:14,080
Speaker 2: it could it could be Anderson, it could be Girly,

416
00:19:14,240 --> 00:19:17,600
Speaker 2: it could be Kamara, it will not be Ingram, you know, so,

417
00:19:17,680 --> 00:19:20,919
Speaker 2: like I just I think like his his ceiling is

418
00:19:20,920 --> 00:19:23,840
Speaker 2: pretty much like fifteen touches, and I don't even know

419
00:19:23,840 --> 00:19:27,000
Speaker 2: if he gets there. But like Anderson could get twenty touches,

420
00:19:27,320 --> 00:19:29,879
Speaker 2: you know, like we've we've seen that even with you know,

421
00:19:30,000 --> 00:19:32,600
Speaker 2: a a healthy girly, you know, Anderson could still be

422
00:19:32,720 --> 00:19:33,320
Speaker 2: used quite.

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Speaker 1: And this isn't like, this isn't just like c J. Anderson.

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Speaker 1: This is like the Barry Bonds version of c. J. Anderson.

425
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Speaker 1: Like he's just huge.

426
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Speaker 3: He's a totally different size of player than he was

427
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Speaker 3: when he was like on the Panthers before then.

428
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Speaker 1: I don't know what happened. What did this dude do

429
00:19:49,080 --> 00:19:50,879
Speaker 1: in his like four weeks sitting on the couch.

430
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Speaker 2: Yeah, someone needs to test his urine. There's some some uh,

431
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Speaker 2: you know, enhancement there. My question for the prop contest

432
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Speaker 2: was which backfield duo will have the most scrimmage yards.

433
00:20:06,320 --> 00:20:08,439
Speaker 2: Which I think that's pretty good out of out before,

434
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Speaker 2: you know, because those are like some really intriguing groups. Kamara, Ingram, Gurley,

435
00:20:13,320 --> 00:20:15,960
Speaker 2: Anderson and then we'll obviously we'll get to them later,

436
00:20:16,359 --> 00:20:20,080
Speaker 2: but Damian Williams and then I think Darryl Williams over

437
00:20:20,240 --> 00:20:22,439
Speaker 2: Spencer ware you can sort of debate that one. And

438
00:20:22,440 --> 00:20:25,159
Speaker 2: then on the other side, obviously Michelle and White a

439
00:20:25,200 --> 00:20:29,040
Speaker 2: lot of scrimmage yardage potential for all of those guys.

440
00:20:29,160 --> 00:20:32,040
Speaker 3: So yeah, I think, uh, you know, I obviously we'll

441
00:20:32,040 --> 00:20:33,320
Speaker 3: talk about that in a minute, but yeah, I think

442
00:20:33,320 --> 00:20:35,840
Speaker 3: that's what made the other question interesting too, is that

443
00:20:36,040 --> 00:20:37,000
Speaker 3: Williams could.

444
00:20:36,840 --> 00:20:39,120
Speaker 1: Eat like if he he could easily.

445
00:20:38,800 --> 00:20:41,439
Speaker 3: Be the only feature back that's getting like all of

446
00:20:41,440 --> 00:20:43,679
Speaker 3: the snaps and touches, so we reed start starting to

447
00:20:43,680 --> 00:20:46,440
Speaker 3: really trust him. But yeah, in this one, I think

448
00:20:46,480 --> 00:20:49,000
Speaker 3: you know that that rank is injury also helped Anderson

449
00:20:49,040 --> 00:20:52,520
Speaker 3: a lot, because that's kind of where the Rams will

450
00:20:52,640 --> 00:20:54,800
Speaker 3: run Anderson when they use him, you know, straight up

451
00:20:54,840 --> 00:20:55,240
Speaker 3: the middle.

452
00:20:55,600 --> 00:20:56,840
Speaker 1: There's definitely a case.

453
00:20:56,640 --> 00:20:59,720
Speaker 3: To be made for Anderson over Ingram, even even in

454
00:21:00,400 --> 00:21:02,320
Speaker 3: it's a little it's a little trickier because then you

455
00:21:02,320 --> 00:21:05,040
Speaker 3: have the whole like they're the Rams of the road underdog.

456
00:21:05,080 --> 00:21:08,240
Speaker 3: Anderson's essentially getting all of his work on, you know,

457
00:21:08,320 --> 00:21:11,080
Speaker 3: backfield touches. He's not like if I was Sean McVay,

458
00:21:11,840 --> 00:21:13,399
Speaker 3: I think what I would do with this game. And

459
00:21:13,440 --> 00:21:15,600
Speaker 3: here's an interesting prop who gets the first snap of

460
00:21:15,600 --> 00:21:18,240
Speaker 3: the game, because girl, he was playing pass downs. I

461
00:21:18,280 --> 00:21:21,639
Speaker 3: think it's like he like I could see I wonder,

462
00:21:21,840 --> 00:21:23,920
Speaker 3: I wish I wish corner on here. I wonder what

463
00:21:24,000 --> 00:21:26,399
Speaker 3: he would set the odds of, like Anderson taking the

464
00:21:26,400 --> 00:21:28,520
Speaker 3: first snap in the backfield. Though I think there's definitely

465
00:21:28,560 --> 00:21:32,520
Speaker 3: like a twenty five to like thirty or fifty percent

466
00:21:32,600 --> 00:21:34,000
Speaker 3: chance that that he's out there.

467
00:21:34,680 --> 00:21:37,639
Speaker 1: But I think, yeah, the home favorite thing with the Saints,

468
00:21:37,720 --> 00:21:38,120
Speaker 1: and you know.

469
00:21:38,119 --> 00:21:41,320
Speaker 3: Obviously you probably have Ingram's touchdown projection a little higher,

470
00:21:41,359 --> 00:21:43,479
Speaker 3: but then at the same time you had Anderson playing.

471
00:21:44,040 --> 00:21:45,720
Speaker 3: You know, he was in at the goal line a

472
00:21:45,720 --> 00:21:48,119
Speaker 3: lot last week against Dallas. So it is it's a

473
00:21:48,200 --> 00:21:51,159
Speaker 3: really fascinating slate. I think Anderson and Ingram are going

474
00:21:51,200 --> 00:21:52,880
Speaker 3: to be the two kind of beverage plays that that's

475
00:21:52,880 --> 00:21:53,600
Speaker 3: swing the slate.

476
00:21:54,280 --> 00:21:56,080
Speaker 1: And I think I do I do like me some CJ.

477
00:21:56,160 --> 00:21:58,240
Speaker 3: Anderson because I do like me some Rams, so I'll

478
00:21:58,240 --> 00:22:01,520
Speaker 3: probably have more exposure to him than that angrle.

479
00:22:01,520 --> 00:22:05,040
Speaker 2: All right, anything else to talk about DFS related with

480
00:22:05,080 --> 00:22:05,560
Speaker 2: this game?

481
00:22:06,400 --> 00:22:08,480
Speaker 3: I think you know this is this is a game

482
00:22:08,520 --> 00:22:11,600
Speaker 3: where we saw Brandon Cooks kind of go off last

483
00:22:11,640 --> 00:22:16,960
Speaker 3: time revenge game, right, Yeah, so this one, you know,

484
00:22:17,359 --> 00:22:19,239
Speaker 3: I think it was it you that pointed out that

485
00:22:19,240 --> 00:22:22,160
Speaker 3: Eli Apple still hasn't given up a touchdown and coverage.

486
00:22:22,680 --> 00:22:26,359
Speaker 2: I think Ian has pointed that. Kay yeah, yeah, so yeah, yeah,

487
00:22:26,520 --> 00:22:28,679
Speaker 2: I mean the one thing that's kind of unreal is

488
00:22:28,680 --> 00:22:31,120
Speaker 2: that he has been like they have singled him out,

489
00:22:31,160 --> 00:22:34,040
Speaker 2: Like opposing quarterbacks have really singled him out since he

490
00:22:34,160 --> 00:22:37,320
Speaker 2: signed with the sat or was traded to the Saints. Uh,

491
00:22:37,400 --> 00:22:40,040
Speaker 2: he's been the most targeted player on the team since

492
00:22:40,080 --> 00:22:42,719
Speaker 2: he joined the team. But yeah, still hasn't given up

493
00:22:43,240 --> 00:22:43,880
Speaker 2: a touchdown.

494
00:22:44,440 --> 00:22:46,400
Speaker 1: Yeah. See all these all these things in this game

495
00:22:46,440 --> 00:22:47,040
Speaker 1: that could just.

496
00:22:47,440 --> 00:22:50,560
Speaker 3: Regress to the mean and and and and we Saint

497
00:22:50,600 --> 00:22:52,760
Speaker 3: fans angry. I mean, I hope not. I don't really

498
00:22:52,800 --> 00:22:54,800
Speaker 3: care honestly either way. It's I think it's gonna be

499
00:22:54,800 --> 00:22:57,640
Speaker 3: a great game. But uh, Reynolds, he'll see a lot

500
00:22:57,640 --> 00:23:00,960
Speaker 3: of Apple and he'll have some single coverage opportunities. So

501
00:23:01,480 --> 00:23:03,960
Speaker 3: I think he's still an interesting tournament play as he is.

502
00:23:04,560 --> 00:23:07,159
Speaker 3: Mostly say it's interesting too because we saw the tight ends.

503
00:23:07,480 --> 00:23:10,160
Speaker 3: Even though the Saints tend to do well against tight ends,

504
00:23:10,160 --> 00:23:14,399
Speaker 3: we saw both Higbee and Reynolds have pretty productive games

505
00:23:14,480 --> 00:23:17,320
Speaker 3: or at least above expectation games for them in the

506
00:23:17,359 --> 00:23:19,240
Speaker 3: first meeting. So those are some guys, Those are some

507
00:23:19,280 --> 00:23:21,600
Speaker 3: people to watch. But I think if I was McVeigh,

508
00:23:20,920 --> 00:23:24,560
Speaker 3: i'd opened the game with a screen pass to c

509
00:23:24,720 --> 00:23:27,080
Speaker 3: J Anderson, or like the first time Anderson comes in

510
00:23:27,119 --> 00:23:28,840
Speaker 3: the game, I would just I would just throw a

511
00:23:28,840 --> 00:23:31,320
Speaker 3: screen pass to like get that in the Saints head

512
00:23:31,400 --> 00:23:33,200
Speaker 3: that this guy is not only going to be out

513
00:23:33,240 --> 00:23:35,480
Speaker 3: here to run, because I think that's the one you

514
00:23:35,480 --> 00:23:37,760
Speaker 3: don't want to get too predictable there. I think CJ

515
00:23:37,880 --> 00:23:40,200
Speaker 3: is interesting. I think I think like the tight ends,

516
00:23:40,200 --> 00:23:42,119
Speaker 3: I think Hill, you still have to pay attention to

517
00:23:42,200 --> 00:23:44,280
Speaker 3: Hill because at two hundred, if he scores like one

518
00:23:44,280 --> 00:23:46,920
Speaker 3: of those easy touchdowns, you know, near the goal line,

519
00:23:46,960 --> 00:23:48,880
Speaker 3: it's going to be leverage on a lot a lot

520
00:23:48,880 --> 00:23:51,159
Speaker 3: of different things because of the way he lets you

521
00:23:51,640 --> 00:23:55,080
Speaker 3: get to a different lineup constructions. And then Watson had

522
00:23:55,080 --> 00:23:57,800
Speaker 3: a pretty big game where he had over sixty yards

523
00:23:57,840 --> 00:23:58,800
Speaker 3: in the first meeting as well.

524
00:23:58,840 --> 00:24:00,320
Speaker 1: And I think that if.

525
00:24:00,119 --> 00:24:05,320
Speaker 3: Wade Phillips does like make adjustments and chooses to kind

526
00:24:05,320 --> 00:24:08,320
Speaker 3: of go after Thomas a little more aggressively, I think

527
00:24:08,359 --> 00:24:11,240
Speaker 3: one of the kind of effects of that is that

528
00:24:11,440 --> 00:24:13,840
Speaker 3: the tight ends or you know, it's not just going

529
00:24:13,920 --> 00:24:16,120
Speaker 3: to begin, It's gonna be like gain and the tight

530
00:24:16,200 --> 00:24:17,960
Speaker 3: ends for the Saints are gonna have to are gonna

531
00:24:17,960 --> 00:24:20,320
Speaker 3: get some some man demand matchups that they're probably gonna

532
00:24:20,359 --> 00:24:22,680
Speaker 3: have to to win. So, you know, I think it's

533
00:24:22,760 --> 00:24:24,720
Speaker 3: kind of a wide open slate. But I looked at

534
00:24:24,760 --> 00:24:28,240
Speaker 3: like the two early down backs and then the tight

535
00:24:28,359 --> 00:24:29,480
Speaker 3: end for leverage.

536
00:24:29,640 --> 00:24:32,320
Speaker 2: It's going to be so tilting for everyone. When Zachline

537
00:24:32,400 --> 00:24:34,640
Speaker 2: gets like multiple touchdowns.

538
00:24:34,760 --> 00:24:36,800
Speaker 3: You gotta have I mean, if you're serious about these

539
00:24:36,800 --> 00:24:38,960
Speaker 3: showdowns slays, you gotta just like if you have a

540
00:24:39,000 --> 00:24:42,120
Speaker 3: certain line up construction that you like I recommend. I mean,

541
00:24:42,160 --> 00:24:44,919
Speaker 3: they're ten dollars entries, you know, if you're multi entering,

542
00:24:45,440 --> 00:24:47,000
Speaker 3: Like if there's a number of those like two hundred

543
00:24:47,000 --> 00:24:48,520
Speaker 3: hour guys, you just gotta just put.

544
00:24:48,320 --> 00:24:48,679
Speaker 1: Them all in.

545
00:24:48,720 --> 00:24:51,399
Speaker 3: I mean, Virgil Green, of all the tight ends, all

546
00:24:51,440 --> 00:24:55,480
Speaker 3: the charges fast week, Vergil Green got himself a touchdown too,

547
00:24:55,520 --> 00:24:58,240
Speaker 3: even with Henry Active and Gates. I think Gates got

548
00:24:58,520 --> 00:25:01,679
Speaker 3: was a five catches something like that. So you know,

549
00:25:01,880 --> 00:25:04,040
Speaker 3: it's it's it could happen with any one of these guys.

550
00:25:04,040 --> 00:25:06,840
Speaker 3: I mean, Tommy Lewis could have a you know, Taysom Hill.

551
00:25:06,880 --> 00:25:08,520
Speaker 3: He returns kicks, He's gonna be in there. That's a

552
00:25:08,560 --> 00:25:11,440
Speaker 3: that's another one, Taysom Hill. That's another tournament play. You

553
00:25:11,440 --> 00:25:13,320
Speaker 3: always got to keep in mind in these games, because

554
00:25:13,359 --> 00:25:15,520
Speaker 3: you know he could he could catch, run or throw.

555
00:25:15,880 --> 00:25:18,119
Speaker 2: Yeah. All right, Coming up, we break down the AFC

556
00:25:18,240 --> 00:25:21,360
Speaker 2: Championship game. Right after Josh Applebaum tells us which game

557
00:25:21,480 --> 00:25:22,880
Speaker 2: the wise guys are betting this.

558
00:25:22,840 --> 00:25:28,600
Speaker 4: Week, Money, Talks, and Action. Apple Bomb is all ears.

559
00:25:29,520 --> 00:25:32,640
Speaker 4: This is the Sharp Report.

560
00:25:33,480 --> 00:25:37,880
Speaker 6: NFL Playoffs Championship weekend. We are traveling to Arrowhead Stadium

561
00:25:38,080 --> 00:25:40,880
Speaker 6: for a huge showdown in the AFC Championship game between

562
00:25:40,880 --> 00:25:43,920
Speaker 6: the New England Patriots and the Kansas City Chiefs. We're

563
00:25:43,920 --> 00:25:46,960
Speaker 6: seeing some incredibly unique sharp action and line movement on

564
00:25:47,040 --> 00:25:50,400
Speaker 6: this over under two huge high powered offenses going head

565
00:25:50,400 --> 00:25:53,119
Speaker 6: to head. The total open at an incredibly high fifty

566
00:25:53,160 --> 00:25:55,199
Speaker 6: eight and a half or even fifty nine, depending on

567
00:25:55,200 --> 00:25:59,560
Speaker 6: the sportsbook. Currently, we've seen huge betting on the under

568
00:25:59,680 --> 00:26:03,520
Speaker 6: base almost completely on the weather forecast early in the week,

569
00:26:03,960 --> 00:26:06,439
Speaker 6: report surface showing that it would be one of the

570
00:26:06,600 --> 00:26:10,320
Speaker 6: coldest Arctic blizzards ever for a playoff game, and as

571
00:26:10,359 --> 00:26:13,879
Speaker 6: a result, the under got some huge public action, but

572
00:26:14,000 --> 00:26:15,080
Speaker 6: it was really only public.

573
00:26:15,119 --> 00:26:16,160
Speaker 1: It wasn't sharp at all.

574
00:26:16,760 --> 00:26:20,320
Speaker 6: According to our Sports Insights betting percentages, we saw around

575
00:26:20,359 --> 00:26:23,080
Speaker 6: sixty percent of bets taking the under once that weather

576
00:26:23,119 --> 00:26:26,440
Speaker 6: report surfaced showing an Arctic Arctic blizzard.

577
00:26:26,800 --> 00:26:28,320
Speaker 1: However, the weather.

578
00:26:28,160 --> 00:26:31,879
Speaker 6: Forecast has improved and actually Sharps have gotten down hard.

579
00:26:31,640 --> 00:26:32,359
Speaker 1: On the over.

580
00:26:32,680 --> 00:26:33,760
Speaker 2: This is really interesting.

581
00:26:34,200 --> 00:26:37,720
Speaker 6: Public perception always thinks that in cold weather games the

582
00:26:37,760 --> 00:26:40,680
Speaker 6: over the under hits at a high rate. You would

583
00:26:40,680 --> 00:26:43,119
Speaker 6: think that, just conventional wisdom, the players are gonna be

584
00:26:43,640 --> 00:26:45,840
Speaker 6: freezing cold, it's gonna be hard to throw the ball,

585
00:26:45,920 --> 00:26:49,040
Speaker 6: catch the ball, They're gonna have miskicks, it's gonna be

586
00:26:49,040 --> 00:26:50,920
Speaker 6: hard to kick the ball, So therefore the under hits

587
00:26:50,920 --> 00:26:51,560
Speaker 6: at a high rate.

588
00:26:51,920 --> 00:26:54,640
Speaker 2: However, the exact opposite is true.

589
00:26:55,200 --> 00:26:58,200
Speaker 6: Since two thousand and three, anytime the temperature is less

590
00:26:58,240 --> 00:27:01,199
Speaker 6: than thirty degrees, the overhea has hit at a fifty

591
00:27:01,240 --> 00:27:03,640
Speaker 6: eight point nine percent clip. And what the sharps did

592
00:27:03,680 --> 00:27:06,119
Speaker 6: is they waited for that public overreaction to drop that

593
00:27:06,200 --> 00:27:08,680
Speaker 6: line from fifty eight, fifty nine, fifty nine and a

594
00:27:08,720 --> 00:27:11,040
Speaker 6: half all the way down to fifty four and that's

595
00:27:11,040 --> 00:27:14,119
Speaker 6: when they hammered the over. Using our Sports Insights bet signals,

596
00:27:14,119 --> 00:27:17,320
Speaker 6: we checked a massive bet signal a steam move on

597
00:27:17,440 --> 00:27:19,840
Speaker 6: the over fifty five and a half, and we've seen

598
00:27:19,840 --> 00:27:22,600
Speaker 6: this line now shoot back up two round fifty six

599
00:27:22,600 --> 00:27:24,439
Speaker 6: to fifty five and a half across the board. This

600
00:27:24,520 --> 00:27:26,679
Speaker 6: is also a great time to take overs in general.

601
00:27:26,840 --> 00:27:29,119
Speaker 6: Since two thousand and three, the over has hit at

602
00:27:29,160 --> 00:27:31,760
Speaker 6: a sixty three percent clip in the AFC and NFC

603
00:27:31,840 --> 00:27:36,560
Speaker 6: championship games. So although the public expects a freezing cold under,

604
00:27:37,000 --> 00:27:39,280
Speaker 6: actually the weather is improving and sharps are getting down

605
00:27:39,400 --> 00:27:42,560
Speaker 6: on a somewhat contrarion over all.

606
00:27:42,640 --> 00:27:44,359
Speaker 2: Right, that was Josh. Be sure to check out his

607
00:27:44,520 --> 00:27:48,320
Speaker 2: article The Sharp Report. Each week on the Action Network,

608
00:27:49,080 --> 00:27:53,040
Speaker 2: Chris the Ase Championship game at six forty pm Eastern

609
00:27:53,080 --> 00:27:56,720
Speaker 2: Patriots at Chiefs, Chiefs favored by three a fifty five

610
00:27:56,760 --> 00:27:59,360
Speaker 2: point five over under. There has been a good deal

611
00:27:59,400 --> 00:28:01,840
Speaker 2: of movement on that game total. The spread is up

612
00:28:01,840 --> 00:28:04,359
Speaker 2: from two and a half. The total is massively down

613
00:28:04,440 --> 00:28:06,919
Speaker 2: from fifty nine and a half earlier and moved down

614
00:28:06,960 --> 00:28:09,200
Speaker 2: in the week because of weather concerns. Some of those

615
00:28:09,240 --> 00:28:13,560
Speaker 2: concerns have been alleviated, so the total has moved back

616
00:28:13,640 --> 00:28:16,040
Speaker 2: up from you know, fifty four fifty four and a

617
00:28:16,080 --> 00:28:18,399
Speaker 2: half now to fifty five and a half, and it

618
00:28:18,400 --> 00:28:21,240
Speaker 2: wouldn't be surprising if we continue to see it move

619
00:28:21,400 --> 00:28:24,040
Speaker 2: up a little bit. Obviously, all that could change, but

620
00:28:24,200 --> 00:28:26,560
Speaker 2: you know, people should keep the weather in mind. The

621
00:28:26,600 --> 00:28:29,919
Speaker 2: Patriots easily beat the Chargers last week to appear in

622
00:28:29,960 --> 00:28:32,679
Speaker 2: their eighth straight conference championship game. But they are on

623
00:28:32,720 --> 00:28:35,120
Speaker 2: the road, where they have not been nearly as good

624
00:28:35,160 --> 00:28:38,320
Speaker 2: this year or in the postseason throughout their entire history.

625
00:28:38,480 --> 00:28:41,000
Speaker 2: And then on top of that, Arrowhead Stadium is a

626
00:28:41,040 --> 00:28:43,760
Speaker 2: tough place to play. It gives the Chiefs perhaps the

627
00:28:43,760 --> 00:28:46,640
Speaker 2: greatest home field advantage in the league. The Chiefs exercise

628
00:28:46,720 --> 00:28:49,160
Speaker 2: their playoff team is last week in a dominant win

629
00:28:49,200 --> 00:28:52,240
Speaker 2: over the Colts. Andy Reid is coaching in his sixth

630
00:28:52,360 --> 00:28:55,160
Speaker 2: conference championship, his first with the Chiefs. He's facing the

631
00:28:55,160 --> 00:28:57,719
Speaker 2: coach and the quarterback who prevented him from winning the

632
00:28:57,760 --> 00:29:00,360
Speaker 2: only Super Bowl in which he appeared. This is a

633
00:29:00,400 --> 00:29:03,120
Speaker 2: rematch of the epic Week six game in New England,

634
00:29:03,320 --> 00:29:06,840
Speaker 2: which the Patriots won forty three to forty Chris, what

635
00:29:06,880 --> 00:29:07,800
Speaker 2: are you doing with this game?

636
00:29:08,160 --> 00:29:08,760
Speaker 1: Pop quiz?

637
00:29:08,960 --> 00:29:14,000
Speaker 3: When is the last time Tom Brady won a playoff game.

638
00:29:14,040 --> 00:29:21,960
Speaker 1: On the road twenty twelve, January twenty first, two thousand

639
00:29:22,320 --> 00:29:23,400
Speaker 1: and seven.

640
00:29:24,040 --> 00:29:26,960
Speaker 3: Oh wow, Like like this would be his first road

641
00:29:26,960 --> 00:29:28,520
Speaker 3: playoff win over a decade.

642
00:29:28,800 --> 00:29:30,760
Speaker 1: That's not even a knock on him. That's more of

643
00:29:30,800 --> 00:29:32,160
Speaker 1: a testament to the fact.

644
00:29:31,880 --> 00:29:35,480
Speaker 2: That they're always playing at home exactly.

645
00:29:35,520 --> 00:29:39,560
Speaker 1: They've had precisely three road playoff games. Yeah, over that span.

646
00:29:39,840 --> 00:29:42,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, but but no, as far as you know the

647
00:29:42,400 --> 00:29:45,040
Speaker 3: betting trends go. And obviously because you know, because they

648
00:29:45,080 --> 00:29:48,200
Speaker 3: don't play many road playoff games, we're working with a

649
00:29:48,240 --> 00:29:51,920
Speaker 3: small sample. But Brady is three and four against spread

650
00:29:51,960 --> 00:29:54,120
Speaker 3: on the road in the playoffs outside of Foxborough, you know,

651
00:29:54,160 --> 00:29:56,280
Speaker 3: so including Super Bowl six and six and nine against

652
00:29:56,280 --> 00:30:00,000
Speaker 3: the spread. Just not that that profitability that we see

653
00:30:00,160 --> 00:30:03,480
Speaker 3: out of him in the regular season hasn't really translated,

654
00:30:03,960 --> 00:30:06,960
Speaker 3: you know, in the postseason away from from home. So

655
00:30:07,200 --> 00:30:10,240
Speaker 3: I think that combined with you know, what the Chiefs

656
00:30:10,280 --> 00:30:11,520
Speaker 3: are able to do. And you've been on this, you

657
00:30:11,560 --> 00:30:13,840
Speaker 3: know all year. You know, in Arrowhead their defense just

658
00:30:13,880 --> 00:30:16,680
Speaker 3: plays marketing. We better, I do like the Chiefs in this

659
00:30:16,720 --> 00:30:18,880
Speaker 3: one as three point favorites.

660
00:30:19,280 --> 00:30:20,680
Speaker 1: You know, the over under is tough.

661
00:30:20,880 --> 00:30:23,760
Speaker 3: I there's all these kind of contradictory trends going on.

662
00:30:24,480 --> 00:30:27,280
Speaker 3: It's like you have the arrowhead under trend that's been

663
00:30:27,320 --> 00:30:29,880
Speaker 3: hitting at above a sixty percent rate in the Andy

664
00:30:29,920 --> 00:30:32,440
Speaker 3: Reid era. Then but then you have the fact that

665
00:30:32,520 --> 00:30:35,480
Speaker 3: you know, cold these cold weather overs also tend to

666
00:30:35,480 --> 00:30:37,200
Speaker 3: be a hit. I believe they're one, fourteen and eighty

667
00:30:37,240 --> 00:30:39,600
Speaker 3: when the tempts are under thirty. And so you have

668
00:30:39,640 --> 00:30:41,800
Speaker 3: all these different kind of factors at play.

669
00:30:42,520 --> 00:30:43,400
Speaker 1: I could see it going.

670
00:30:43,280 --> 00:30:46,040
Speaker 3: Either way, depending on, you know, what kind of game

671
00:30:46,080 --> 00:30:49,160
Speaker 3: plan each coach kind of comes out with. I think

672
00:30:49,200 --> 00:30:50,920
Speaker 3: this is this is where you know, no one's gonna

673
00:30:50,920 --> 00:30:52,000
Speaker 3: out coach Bill Belichick.

674
00:30:52,040 --> 00:30:52,800
Speaker 1: But I think this is.

675
00:30:52,800 --> 00:30:57,440
Speaker 3: A game where Andy Reid could put Belichick like in

676
00:30:57,560 --> 00:31:00,800
Speaker 3: some tough spots, because like last week, I thought it

677
00:31:00,800 --> 00:31:04,000
Speaker 3: was interesting at the end of the Chargers Patriots telecast

678
00:31:04,080 --> 00:31:08,600
Speaker 3: on CBS, Tony Robo kind of opined that Bill Belichick,

679
00:31:08,640 --> 00:31:10,000
Speaker 3: you know, he's gonna he's gonna come up with some

680
00:31:10,080 --> 00:31:12,240
Speaker 3: kind of game plan. He's like, hey, you know, sometimes

681
00:31:12,280 --> 00:31:14,240
Speaker 3: Bill Belichick would just say, hey, you got to let

682
00:31:14,320 --> 00:31:14,920
Speaker 3: these guys.

683
00:31:14,760 --> 00:31:16,720
Speaker 1: Rush for like two hundred yards or something.

684
00:31:16,800 --> 00:31:19,440
Speaker 3: And this is one of those games where I think

685
00:31:20,000 --> 00:31:23,120
Speaker 3: Belichick might he might have to do that, but I

686
00:31:23,120 --> 00:31:24,960
Speaker 3: think it puts him in a tough spot either way,

687
00:31:25,000 --> 00:31:27,400
Speaker 3: because the Patriots have gotten into a lot of trouble

688
00:31:27,480 --> 00:31:30,120
Speaker 3: by you know, wedding teams run all over them on

689
00:31:30,160 --> 00:31:32,440
Speaker 3: the road. Like you know, I talked about it last week.

690
00:31:32,480 --> 00:31:33,920
Speaker 3: You know, the Chargers weren't able to do it at

691
00:31:33,960 --> 00:31:36,080
Speaker 3: you know, in Foxborough. But the Patriots are three and

692
00:31:36,160 --> 00:31:38,280
Speaker 3: five on the road this season, goes straight up and

693
00:31:38,360 --> 00:31:40,360
Speaker 3: against the spread, and a big part of that is

694
00:31:40,360 --> 00:31:42,360
Speaker 3: that they've given up over one hundred and fifty yards rushing.

695
00:31:42,360 --> 00:31:44,160
Speaker 3: And you know, as I mentioned last week, a ton

696
00:31:44,200 --> 00:31:46,080
Speaker 3: of that has come in the first half. It wasn't

697
00:31:46,120 --> 00:31:48,480
Speaker 3: just like a game script thing. So I don't know,

698
00:31:48,720 --> 00:31:50,800
Speaker 3: you know, if the if Belichick's gonna just say, okay,

699
00:31:50,840 --> 00:31:51,760
Speaker 3: we'll go out and let them.

700
00:31:51,680 --> 00:31:52,360
Speaker 1: Run it on us.

701
00:31:52,520 --> 00:31:55,640
Speaker 3: But if not, you know, obviously he likes he likes

702
00:31:55,640 --> 00:31:57,720
Speaker 3: to kind of zone in on zero, win on one

703
00:31:58,120 --> 00:31:59,280
Speaker 3: one guy and take him out.

704
00:31:59,600 --> 00:32:01,000
Speaker 1: But he hasn't really been able to do that.

705
00:32:01,080 --> 00:32:04,320
Speaker 3: I mean, you know, Travis Kelce didn't go off last game,

706
00:32:04,360 --> 00:32:08,720
Speaker 3: but Tyreek Hill did and Kareem Hunt did, So there's

707
00:32:08,760 --> 00:32:10,960
Speaker 3: usually at least two guys. On the Chiefs, you have

708
00:32:11,000 --> 00:32:13,440
Speaker 3: Watkins back. He played more snaps than any other Chief

709
00:32:13,480 --> 00:32:16,160
Speaker 3: skill position player, so I think it's going to be

710
00:32:16,160 --> 00:32:17,440
Speaker 3: tough for him on defense.

711
00:32:17,480 --> 00:32:18,880
Speaker 1: And then on the other side of the ball.

712
00:32:19,280 --> 00:32:21,040
Speaker 3: Like the Chiefs, I think it's not going to be

713
00:32:21,280 --> 00:32:24,720
Speaker 3: nearly as easy for them their defense as the Colts matchup,

714
00:32:24,760 --> 00:32:27,160
Speaker 3: because against the Colts, what they ended up doing was

715
00:32:27,200 --> 00:32:30,560
Speaker 3: just pressing the Colts receivers at the line, and it

716
00:32:30,680 --> 00:32:33,400
Speaker 3: worked and the Colts couldn't really do much all game.

717
00:32:33,680 --> 00:32:36,480
Speaker 3: The Patriots don't really play a lot of like one

718
00:32:36,520 --> 00:32:40,840
Speaker 3: to one personnel to even kind of give you that opportunity,

719
00:32:40,880 --> 00:32:42,840
Speaker 3: so it's going to be a totally different kind of matchup.

720
00:32:43,080 --> 00:32:45,400
Speaker 3: The Patriots tend to be one of the least one

721
00:32:45,440 --> 00:32:49,000
Speaker 3: to one personnel, so that's like three receivers, one running back,

722
00:32:49,000 --> 00:32:51,240
Speaker 3: one tight end. They played like some of the leaks

723
00:32:51,240 --> 00:32:52,800
Speaker 3: of that in the league, only I think that forty

724
00:32:52,880 --> 00:32:55,720
Speaker 3: nine ers played less, and that's really been the weakness.

725
00:32:55,880 --> 00:32:59,120
Speaker 3: The strength of the chief pass defense has been against that.

726
00:32:59,160 --> 00:33:01,680
Speaker 3: Those three riders for one running back looks they're allowing

727
00:33:01,680 --> 00:33:04,720
Speaker 3: only seven point two yards per attempt when they face

728
00:33:05,200 --> 00:33:07,800
Speaker 3: the two to one, they're up to eight four and

729
00:33:08,320 --> 00:33:10,520
Speaker 3: in one two they're up to over ten.

730
00:33:10,640 --> 00:33:13,240
Speaker 1: So they have they've struggled.

731
00:33:12,800 --> 00:33:14,240
Speaker 3: Against some of these other kind of looks, and I

732
00:33:14,240 --> 00:33:16,200
Speaker 3: think that's where the Patriots will go. I think they'll

733
00:33:16,640 --> 00:33:19,880
Speaker 3: get the running backs, particularly James White, involved in the

734
00:33:19,920 --> 00:33:21,480
Speaker 3: passing game again.

735
00:33:21,600 --> 00:33:24,600
Speaker 1: But if I'm the Chiefs, I'm I'm trying to sell out.

736
00:33:24,640 --> 00:33:25,840
Speaker 1: I'm bringing a lot of guys up.

737
00:33:26,160 --> 00:33:28,160
Speaker 3: You know, you can't press the Patriots, but I'm still

738
00:33:28,160 --> 00:33:29,880
Speaker 3: bringing a lot of guys up close to the line

739
00:33:29,920 --> 00:33:32,880
Speaker 3: of scribbage. I'm not letting Michelle do what he did

740
00:33:32,960 --> 00:33:36,440
Speaker 3: last week or in the previous meeting, And I'm saying, hey,

741
00:33:36,520 --> 00:33:39,720
Speaker 3: you know, Tom Brady, look, if you want to beat us,

742
00:33:40,000 --> 00:33:41,680
Speaker 3: you're not going to just be able to throw fifteen

743
00:33:41,680 --> 00:33:43,800
Speaker 3: to seventeen to James White like we gotta. They got

744
00:33:43,800 --> 00:33:47,320
Speaker 3: to treat him like Marshall Falk and make the Patriots,

745
00:33:47,480 --> 00:33:49,840
Speaker 3: I think, throw the ball down the field and take

746
00:33:49,880 --> 00:33:51,760
Speaker 3: their chances, because the worst thing that can happen is

747
00:33:51,800 --> 00:33:53,600
Speaker 3: you give up a couple of big plays early on

748
00:33:53,680 --> 00:33:55,360
Speaker 3: and then you know, okay, this is the kind of

749
00:33:55,400 --> 00:33:57,120
Speaker 3: game we got to play. We have Patrick Mahomes, we

750
00:33:57,160 --> 00:33:59,240
Speaker 3: can easily come back from a seven or even fourteen

751
00:33:59,240 --> 00:34:02,520
Speaker 3: point definicit. But but you know, Brady has struggled under pressure.

752
00:34:02,520 --> 00:34:04,160
Speaker 3: His passer rating this year was twenty first in the

753
00:34:04,200 --> 00:34:07,240
Speaker 3: league against pressure. Was he was number one last year.

754
00:34:07,760 --> 00:34:11,120
Speaker 3: This offense isn't nearly as explosive, you know, without Josh Gordon,

755
00:34:11,480 --> 00:34:14,480
Speaker 3: rob grenkowskawn to where he's been at and Chris Hogan.

756
00:34:14,960 --> 00:34:17,239
Speaker 3: As Evan Silva said earlier, the here just kind of

757
00:34:17,280 --> 00:34:20,160
Speaker 3: runs wind sprints up and down the field, doesn't really

758
00:34:20,160 --> 00:34:21,320
Speaker 3: get targeted a lot.

759
00:34:21,760 --> 00:34:22,600
Speaker 1: Or make a lot happen.

760
00:34:22,680 --> 00:34:26,080
Speaker 3: So I think this this game sets up for if

761
00:34:26,160 --> 00:34:28,720
Speaker 3: Andy Reid can kind of put his team in a position,

762
00:34:28,760 --> 00:34:31,200
Speaker 3: in a good position game plan wise, I think I

763
00:34:31,200 --> 00:34:34,480
Speaker 3: think he has a superior team. He's at home where

764
00:34:34,480 --> 00:34:37,279
Speaker 3: they play their best. I do expect the chief Stat

765
00:34:37,520 --> 00:34:40,480
Speaker 3: to win this football game. But I do think that,

766
00:34:40,560 --> 00:34:43,439
Speaker 3: you know, Belichick, he's going to have something up to sleeve.

767
00:34:43,840 --> 00:34:46,600
Speaker 3: But but at three, I mean that's essentially saying, Okay,

768
00:34:46,640 --> 00:34:49,720
Speaker 3: these two teams are even, And you mentioned the Chiefs

769
00:34:49,719 --> 00:34:52,719
Speaker 3: home field advantage I think is bigger, larger than the

770
00:34:52,760 --> 00:34:55,200
Speaker 3: average teams home field advantage. So I still like it

771
00:34:55,239 --> 00:34:57,200
Speaker 3: at three more than the over under, which I kind

772
00:34:57,200 --> 00:34:59,080
Speaker 3: of feel more a little more conflicted about.

773
00:34:59,360 --> 00:35:02,399
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm with you on the on the Chiefs. That's

774
00:35:02,440 --> 00:35:04,759
Speaker 2: the side that I took, and I'm honestly, well, just

775
00:35:04,800 --> 00:35:07,680
Speaker 2: it's hard because people do like betting the Patriots, you know,

776
00:35:08,200 --> 00:35:10,879
Speaker 2: but also the Chiefs have been so dynamic this year

777
00:35:10,920 --> 00:35:14,279
Speaker 2: that I think the line is probably gonna stay around three. Like,

778
00:35:14,320 --> 00:35:16,959
Speaker 2: I don't think we're going to see any movement really,

779
00:35:17,040 --> 00:35:19,839
Speaker 2: so yeah, but I you know, I saw three right

780
00:35:19,880 --> 00:35:22,160
Speaker 2: away on Sunday night, and I just took it thinking

781
00:35:22,160 --> 00:35:23,960
Speaker 2: that it might move. It might not, but I felt

782
00:35:24,000 --> 00:35:27,080
Speaker 2: pretty comfortable with three and the under. I mean, I

783
00:35:27,120 --> 00:35:28,920
Speaker 2: wouldn't say like it was just a sort of blind

784
00:35:28,920 --> 00:35:31,440
Speaker 2: bet situation, but you know, I got it at fifty

785
00:35:31,480 --> 00:35:34,040
Speaker 2: seven and a half. You know, apparently it opened at

786
00:35:34,040 --> 00:35:36,120
Speaker 2: fifty eight, you know, maybe even like fifty nine in

787
00:35:36,200 --> 00:35:38,880
Speaker 2: some places, but I never saw that line. But you know,

788
00:35:38,920 --> 00:35:40,600
Speaker 2: by the time I saw something, it was it was

789
00:35:40,600 --> 00:35:42,640
Speaker 2: down to fifty seven and a half and I was

790
00:35:42,840 --> 00:35:44,560
Speaker 2: kind of hoping to be able to catch the middle,

791
00:35:44,800 --> 00:35:47,040
Speaker 2: and I was thinking that the line might drop just

792
00:35:47,120 --> 00:35:49,600
Speaker 2: a little bit more and it didn't. But I'm still

793
00:35:49,640 --> 00:35:52,040
Speaker 2: I'm fine with the under there, but I think for

794
00:35:52,200 --> 00:35:55,160
Speaker 2: me that I don't know, like what is so interesting

795
00:35:55,160 --> 00:35:57,359
Speaker 2: about this game is thinking about the way in which

796
00:35:57,360 --> 00:36:00,560
Speaker 2: Belichick is going to try to defend all of these weapons.

797
00:36:01,000 --> 00:36:03,920
Speaker 2: And I don't know if we can use what happened

798
00:36:03,960 --> 00:36:06,680
Speaker 2: in week six as a blueprint for what they will

799
00:36:06,680 --> 00:36:09,279
Speaker 2: do or is like a blueprint for what they won't

800
00:36:09,360 --> 00:36:11,640
Speaker 2: to do, you know what I mean, because like Belichick

801
00:36:11,719 --> 00:36:14,160
Speaker 2: doesn't tend to do the same thing twice, you know,

802
00:36:14,280 --> 00:36:17,840
Speaker 2: So like in week six, they had Gilmour on Wakins

803
00:36:18,200 --> 00:36:20,200
Speaker 2: and you know, that was the guy that he shadowed,

804
00:36:20,520 --> 00:36:22,319
Speaker 2: and they you know, kind of had more of a

805
00:36:22,400 --> 00:36:26,640
Speaker 2: bracket coverage on Hill and he'll still destroyed them, but

806
00:36:26,840 --> 00:36:29,480
Speaker 2: you know, they shut down Walkins. I don't know if

807
00:36:29,520 --> 00:36:31,480
Speaker 2: we could expect the same thing again, but you know,

808
00:36:31,520 --> 00:36:34,040
Speaker 2: but maybe and this time I think the difference would

809
00:36:34,080 --> 00:36:38,239
Speaker 2: be that McCarty would Jason McCarty would be someone who

810
00:36:38,600 --> 00:36:42,600
Speaker 2: shadows Hill a little bit more specifically into the slot.

811
00:36:43,080 --> 00:36:45,720
Speaker 2: And then you know, I don't think it really matters,

812
00:36:45,920 --> 00:36:49,560
Speaker 2: you know, like what's happening with Conley. You know, Jackson's

813
00:36:49,560 --> 00:36:52,040
Speaker 2: going to be defending Conley, But I don't I think

814
00:36:52,040 --> 00:36:55,080
Speaker 2: that's basically a wash. The Patriots have been pretty good

815
00:36:55,440 --> 00:36:58,800
Speaker 2: at tight end defense number eighth in past Evoa against

816
00:36:58,840 --> 00:37:02,400
Speaker 2: tight ends, they have been decent at preventing Kelsey in

817
00:37:02,440 --> 00:37:05,480
Speaker 2: the past from going off. But Damian Williams is a

818
00:37:05,520 --> 00:37:08,160
Speaker 2: pretty good pass catcher. I don't know if they really

819
00:37:08,160 --> 00:37:11,000
Speaker 2: have a linebacker who can stick with him. They have

820
00:37:11,040 --> 00:37:13,040
Speaker 2: been playing more in dime and so I think they

821
00:37:13,040 --> 00:37:15,880
Speaker 2: would maybe even have a defensive back. He would probably

822
00:37:15,960 --> 00:37:19,040
Speaker 2: be looking to defend a back out of the backfield.

823
00:37:19,080 --> 00:37:22,040
Speaker 2: But I'm just kind of unsure about how the Patriots

824
00:37:22,080 --> 00:37:26,680
Speaker 2: are going to try to stop this offensive attack. I mean,

825
00:37:26,760 --> 00:37:29,440
Speaker 2: I don't know if they can. Like what would success

826
00:37:29,680 --> 00:37:32,680
Speaker 2: be for this defense if they hold the Chiefs to

827
00:37:32,840 --> 00:37:35,600
Speaker 2: twenty eight points? You know, like, what is you know, like,

828
00:37:35,640 --> 00:37:38,520
Speaker 2: what is the measure of success for this defense at

829
00:37:38,520 --> 00:37:39,480
Speaker 2: the end of this game?

830
00:37:39,719 --> 00:37:42,320
Speaker 3: I would say, actually under twenty eight because that means

831
00:37:42,360 --> 00:37:45,160
Speaker 3: that you didn't go allow the four touchdowns, like either

832
00:37:45,200 --> 00:37:48,160
Speaker 3: you got like either you gave up three touchdowns and

833
00:37:48,480 --> 00:37:51,080
Speaker 3: held them to two field goals or you know, or

834
00:37:51,120 --> 00:37:52,839
Speaker 3: something else you know of that nature, But you didn't

835
00:37:52,880 --> 00:37:56,120
Speaker 3: allow just to straight up four touchdowns of which you

836
00:37:56,160 --> 00:37:58,920
Speaker 3: know two probably are going to come from big plays, right.

837
00:37:59,120 --> 00:38:02,080
Speaker 3: You know that's the Chiefs haven't scored. They've scored no

838
00:38:02,160 --> 00:38:04,640
Speaker 3: lower than twenty six in any of their games. Right,

839
00:38:04,760 --> 00:38:06,960
Speaker 3: But but you did mention it their their offense production

840
00:38:07,080 --> 00:38:08,839
Speaker 3: goes down at home, but that's because the game script

841
00:38:08,920 --> 00:38:11,040
Speaker 3: changes in their defense allows a lot fewer points at home.

842
00:38:11,080 --> 00:38:13,040
Speaker 3: So you know, what is it, thirty eight points they

843
00:38:13,160 --> 00:38:16,160
Speaker 3: average on the road and then thirty two it's at home. Yeah,

844
00:38:16,200 --> 00:38:18,880
Speaker 3: So I think, yeah, if you can hold them to

845
00:38:19,960 --> 00:38:22,200
Speaker 3: because if you held them to like in that twenty

846
00:38:22,239 --> 00:38:25,080
Speaker 3: four to twenty seven range, that also means that you've

847
00:38:25,239 --> 00:38:28,680
Speaker 3: probably shortened the game and you've probably made it into

848
00:38:28,960 --> 00:38:30,759
Speaker 3: a game that favors you a little bit more.

849
00:38:30,840 --> 00:38:32,000
Speaker 1: Because I think.

850
00:38:31,840 --> 00:38:34,600
Speaker 3: The one thing that the Patriots don't want to do,

851
00:38:34,640 --> 00:38:36,440
Speaker 3: and this is why I say, if you're the Chiefs,

852
00:38:36,480 --> 00:38:38,759
Speaker 3: I say, you be aggressive on defense early and you

853
00:38:38,840 --> 00:38:40,799
Speaker 3: kind of dare them to beat you over the top,

854
00:38:40,880 --> 00:38:41,759
Speaker 3: is because the.

855
00:38:41,800 --> 00:38:42,600
Speaker 1: Chiefs can come back.

856
00:38:42,640 --> 00:38:44,640
Speaker 3: They're built, they're fine with like, if they need to

857
00:38:44,680 --> 00:38:48,279
Speaker 3: come back, they can. The Patriots, yes, they have Tom

858
00:38:48,280 --> 00:38:50,880
Speaker 3: Brady and we know he can come back from anything,

859
00:38:51,080 --> 00:38:53,640
Speaker 3: but this team is not particularly.

860
00:38:53,080 --> 00:38:55,440
Speaker 1: Built well to come back. I mean totally agree.

861
00:38:55,600 --> 00:38:59,239
Speaker 3: Yeah, like they like they're passing offense, is like if

862
00:38:59,280 --> 00:39:01,960
Speaker 3: we can throw fifty seven yard passes to James White.

863
00:39:01,760 --> 00:39:02,880
Speaker 1: Will be okay.

864
00:39:03,440 --> 00:39:05,880
Speaker 3: But if we have to throw like if we have

865
00:39:05,920 --> 00:39:08,440
Speaker 3: to target Chris Hogan and Philip Doors set you know,

866
00:39:08,480 --> 00:39:12,279
Speaker 3: a combined fifteen to twenty times, or even Rob Gronkowski

867
00:39:12,280 --> 00:39:14,439
Speaker 3: at this point, I mean, even the way he's looked lately,

868
00:39:14,480 --> 00:39:16,160
Speaker 3: I mean, I think that there's a chance he can

869
00:39:16,239 --> 00:39:16,960
Speaker 3: have a big game.

870
00:39:17,320 --> 00:39:18,759
Speaker 1: This game would certainly be the case.

871
00:39:18,800 --> 00:39:21,399
Speaker 3: I think if he doesn't have a decent to big

872
00:39:21,440 --> 00:39:23,800
Speaker 3: game in this game, I think it's it's clear that

873
00:39:23,840 --> 00:39:27,800
Speaker 3: he probably should retire. Because the Chiefs were poor in

874
00:39:28,160 --> 00:39:31,560
Speaker 3: their defense of tight ends, and Gronk was actually the

875
00:39:31,560 --> 00:39:34,160
Speaker 3: one who led the Patriots in yardage with ninety seven

876
00:39:34,239 --> 00:39:36,120
Speaker 3: in the first meeting. He was the one that caught

877
00:39:36,120 --> 00:39:37,960
Speaker 3: the thirty nine yard pass late in the game that

878
00:39:38,000 --> 00:39:40,799
Speaker 3: set up the field goal the game winning field goals

879
00:39:40,840 --> 00:39:43,359
Speaker 3: time expired. So if he doesn't, if we don't see

880
00:39:43,440 --> 00:39:46,960
Speaker 3: him in the box score with something substantial, it's pretty

881
00:39:46,960 --> 00:39:49,839
Speaker 3: clear that this is just not Rob Gronkowski that we've

882
00:39:49,880 --> 00:39:50,239
Speaker 3: come to know.

883
00:39:50,640 --> 00:39:52,799
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I think the worst thing that the

884
00:39:52,840 --> 00:39:57,440
Speaker 2: Patriots could do is get into a shootout. Yes, you know,

885
00:39:57,520 --> 00:40:00,359
Speaker 2: because like if it's a shootout, the Chiefs, I think

886
00:40:00,480 --> 00:40:03,359
Speaker 2: win that game. I think the way the Patriots win,

887
00:40:03,880 --> 00:40:06,040
Speaker 2: you know, if they are able to win, is by

888
00:40:06,160 --> 00:40:10,080
Speaker 2: controlling the clock, running the ball, and you know, basically

889
00:40:10,160 --> 00:40:12,839
Speaker 2: doing this sort of like peak performance of what they

890
00:40:12,840 --> 00:40:15,120
Speaker 2: did last week. You know. But I think for them

891
00:40:15,160 --> 00:40:18,080
Speaker 2: to win, we basically have to get them playing at

892
00:40:18,120 --> 00:40:21,880
Speaker 2: a peak defensive level where they hold the Chiefs to

893
00:40:22,160 --> 00:40:25,520
Speaker 2: a you know, like bottom ten percent outcome of what

894
00:40:25,560 --> 00:40:29,359
Speaker 2: they could do offensively. And then the Patriots would also

895
00:40:29,440 --> 00:40:32,279
Speaker 2: have to have like a peak performance similar to what

896
00:40:32,320 --> 00:40:34,879
Speaker 2: they did last week. And I think, like putting those

897
00:40:34,920 --> 00:40:37,799
Speaker 2: two things together, it just doesn't seem very likely to me,

898
00:40:38,040 --> 00:40:38,800
Speaker 2: you know what I mean.

899
00:40:39,520 --> 00:40:41,839
Speaker 3: Only because they're on the road, and you know, I'm

900
00:40:41,840 --> 00:40:44,640
Speaker 3: not doubting. I'm not going to ever count out the Patriots.

901
00:40:44,640 --> 00:40:46,920
Speaker 3: Like I think the like the lines in these games,

902
00:40:46,960 --> 00:40:50,120
Speaker 3: they're like betting these games this weekend. Like from a

903
00:40:50,120 --> 00:40:52,640
Speaker 3: straight up value perspective, I don't think it's that exciting.

904
00:40:52,680 --> 00:40:55,440
Speaker 3: I think, you know, even though you know, our numbers

905
00:40:55,440 --> 00:40:57,240
Speaker 3: do show a little bit of value on the favorites.

906
00:40:57,360 --> 00:40:59,800
Speaker 3: I think these games are generally the lines are generally

907
00:40:59,800 --> 00:41:02,000
Speaker 3: say where they are, you know, three three and a half.

908
00:41:02,120 --> 00:41:04,400
Speaker 3: With these totals, it's more kind of for fun and

909
00:41:04,440 --> 00:41:07,240
Speaker 3: like you said, just kind of watching the game plans.

910
00:41:07,280 --> 00:41:07,919
Speaker 1: I think, you know, if.

911
00:41:07,800 --> 00:41:12,320
Speaker 3: I'm the Patriots, would you be surprised if Bill Belichick

912
00:41:12,440 --> 00:41:16,640
Speaker 3: plays like a prevent defense on first and ten, Like

913
00:41:16,640 --> 00:41:18,360
Speaker 3: like I could see, like I could really see, like

914
00:41:18,480 --> 00:41:21,160
Speaker 3: I'm really thinking about what Romo said, and like Romo,

915
00:41:21,440 --> 00:41:24,200
Speaker 3: you know, people clown him, but like he's actually very

916
00:41:24,239 --> 00:41:26,480
Speaker 3: sharp and what you know, like what like a lot

917
00:41:26,520 --> 00:41:28,439
Speaker 3: of things that he talks about and end up coming

918
00:41:28,480 --> 00:41:30,320
Speaker 3: to you know, coming to fruition one way or another.

919
00:41:30,360 --> 00:41:33,359
Speaker 3: And I could really see the Patriots employ some kind

920
00:41:33,360 --> 00:41:38,080
Speaker 3: of like extreme prevent run. Hand the ball to Damian Williams.

921
00:41:38,120 --> 00:41:41,080
Speaker 3: You know, the Chiefs do employ some you know RPO concepts.

922
00:41:41,480 --> 00:41:46,000
Speaker 3: Let's test pass happy Andy Reid and this young quarterback

923
00:41:46,480 --> 00:41:48,040
Speaker 3: and challenge him to put it in.

924
00:41:48,160 --> 00:41:50,359
Speaker 1: Damian Williams gut forty.

925
00:41:50,080 --> 00:41:53,360
Speaker 3: Times like like which literally dropped like nine in the

926
00:41:53,400 --> 00:41:57,400
Speaker 3: coverage on first and ten. And if you want to

927
00:41:57,440 --> 00:42:00,520
Speaker 3: get five yards with Williams, fine, but you gonna have

928
00:42:00,560 --> 00:42:04,360
Speaker 3: to do it ten times a drive right to drive

929
00:42:04,800 --> 00:42:07,319
Speaker 3: to get down the field because we're literally gonna gonna

930
00:42:07,360 --> 00:42:09,880
Speaker 3: double everybody and just and just play like two w

931
00:42:10,080 --> 00:42:12,360
Speaker 3: Like I could see that happening, because, like you said,

932
00:42:12,760 --> 00:42:14,520
Speaker 3: it wouldn't be good if the Pat's gotten a shootout.

933
00:42:14,560 --> 00:42:16,520
Speaker 3: So if they could kind of shorten the game a

934
00:42:16,520 --> 00:42:19,120
Speaker 3: little bit, maybe the Chiefs miss a field goal, maybe

935
00:42:19,120 --> 00:42:21,120
Speaker 3: they fump, you know, maybe something. You know, the more

936
00:42:21,360 --> 00:42:24,399
Speaker 3: plays an offense runs that aren't explosive, the more likely

937
00:42:24,440 --> 00:42:26,560
Speaker 3: the offense is to make some type of mistake that

938
00:42:26,600 --> 00:42:29,440
Speaker 3: would you know, then benefit the opposing team, and especially

939
00:42:29,440 --> 00:42:30,720
Speaker 3: when you're talking favorite underdog.

940
00:42:30,800 --> 00:42:33,000
Speaker 1: So like I could see I could see something crazy

941
00:42:33,160 --> 00:42:34,960
Speaker 1: like like happening from Belichick in this one.

942
00:42:35,400 --> 00:42:40,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, and the idea of Belichick potentially trying to force

943
00:42:41,040 --> 00:42:43,280
Speaker 2: the Chiefs to run the ball and then in turn

944
00:42:43,920 --> 00:42:47,960
Speaker 2: the Patriots leaning on a run heavy game plan is

945
00:42:48,000 --> 00:42:50,600
Speaker 2: what is making me lean towards the under here. Like

946
00:42:50,640 --> 00:42:53,600
Speaker 2: in addition to just like the general like arrowhead under

947
00:42:54,000 --> 00:42:55,920
Speaker 2: trend that we see just kind of like from a

948
00:42:55,960 --> 00:42:58,840
Speaker 2: matchup perspective, that would make me lean to towards the

949
00:42:58,960 --> 00:43:01,600
Speaker 2: under Okay, we're going to close the show with a

950
00:43:01,600 --> 00:43:04,359
Speaker 2: look at the AFC dfs late. But first let's kick

951
00:43:04,400 --> 00:43:07,239
Speaker 2: it to Ian Harditz, who runs through the key conference

952
00:43:07,320 --> 00:43:09,920
Speaker 2: Championship coverage situations.

953
00:43:11,000 --> 00:43:15,800
Speaker 4: The press, the jam, and the five yard bump. Ian

954
00:43:15,960 --> 00:43:21,319
Speaker 4: Harten springs you dance of the divas.

955
00:43:22,680 --> 00:43:25,840
Speaker 7: The Patriots passing offense and the AFC Championship is expected

956
00:43:25,880 --> 00:43:28,440
Speaker 7: to continue to flow through Julian Edelman. He has double

957
00:43:28,480 --> 00:43:31,799
Speaker 7: digit targets in ten consecutive playoff games and should spend

958
00:43:31,840 --> 00:43:34,880
Speaker 7: most of his day across from Kendall Fuller. Chrishigan has

959
00:43:34,880 --> 00:43:37,320
Speaker 7: worked ahead of Philip doors Set in these recent matchups

960
00:43:37,320 --> 00:43:40,720
Speaker 7: without Josh Gordon, but tor Set boasts the largest speed

961
00:43:40,719 --> 00:43:43,560
Speaker 7: advantage in the forty yard dash versus Steven Nelson of

962
00:43:43,640 --> 00:43:47,160
Speaker 7: any wide receiver in the AFC or NFC Championship games.

963
00:43:47,719 --> 00:43:49,840
Speaker 7: The Patriots will try to slow down Tyreek Hill, but

964
00:43:49,880 --> 00:43:52,200
Speaker 7: they haven't been able to in two career matchups. Hill's

965
00:43:52,200 --> 00:43:54,799
Speaker 7: converted twenty targets in the fourteen catches for two hundred

966
00:43:54,800 --> 00:43:57,399
Speaker 7: and seventy five yards and four touchdowns in his two

967
00:43:57,400 --> 00:44:01,480
Speaker 7: career matchups against Bill Bellichicking Company. The Patriots had Stefan Gilmour,

968
00:44:01,600 --> 00:44:05,160
Speaker 7: PFF's number one overall cornerback shadows Sammy Watkins during their

969
00:44:05,160 --> 00:44:08,040
Speaker 7: first matchup this season, and Walkins finished with just eighteen

970
00:44:08,080 --> 00:44:11,000
Speaker 7: scolers yards on two catches. Moving over to the NFC

971
00:44:11,080 --> 00:44:14,600
Speaker 7: Championship game, it's clear Robert Woods has probably the entire game,

972
00:44:14,760 --> 00:44:17,520
Speaker 7: maybe the entire week's best matchup in the slot against

973
00:44:17,560 --> 00:44:21,040
Speaker 7: PJ Williams. Williams finished the season ranked as PFF's number

974
00:44:21,040 --> 00:44:23,080
Speaker 7: one hundred and nine ranked cornerback out of one hundred

975
00:44:23,080 --> 00:44:27,360
Speaker 7: and nineteen qualifiers. Marshawn Lottimore did not shadow anyone on

976
00:44:27,400 --> 00:44:29,840
Speaker 7: the Rams during their first time around, and this decision

977
00:44:29,840 --> 00:44:33,080
Speaker 7: would again result in him spending roughly sixty percent of

978
00:44:33,120 --> 00:44:36,160
Speaker 7: his snaps across from Brandon Cooks. This means josh Rerollens

979
00:44:36,160 --> 00:44:38,080
Speaker 7: will be on Eli Apple, who has not allowed to

980
00:44:38,080 --> 00:44:41,640
Speaker 7: touchdown this entire season. Moving over to the Saints, Michael

981
00:44:41,640 --> 00:44:44,440
Speaker 7: Thomas destroyed the Rams over two hundred yards in the

982
00:44:44,480 --> 00:44:48,399
Speaker 7: game winning touchdown game clinching touchdown during their first meeting

983
00:44:48,440 --> 00:44:50,839
Speaker 7: this season, and he's had twenty seven catches for three

984
00:44:50,920 --> 00:44:52,960
Speaker 7: hundred and eighty seven yards and three touchdowns in three

985
00:44:53,000 --> 00:44:56,640
Speaker 7: career playoff games. We're not expecting Peters to shadow Thomas

986
00:44:56,640 --> 00:44:58,640
Speaker 7: this time around with to lead back in the lineup,

987
00:44:59,120 --> 00:45:01,960
Speaker 7: but both t Thomas and Tegan Janius should be able

988
00:45:01,960 --> 00:45:04,000
Speaker 7: to take advantage of these matchups that Breeze has enough

989
00:45:04,000 --> 00:45:06,400
Speaker 7: time to throw. Keith Kirkwood has taken over as a

990
00:45:06,440 --> 00:45:09,160
Speaker 7: starting number three receiver in the Saints offense over Tree

991
00:45:09,239 --> 00:45:11,600
Speaker 7: Kwan Smith, and he has a massive height advantage in

992
00:45:11,640 --> 00:45:13,240
Speaker 7: the slot over Nikel Roby Coleman.

993
00:45:13,719 --> 00:45:15,480
Speaker 2: Right that was Ian. Be sure to check out his

994
00:45:15,600 --> 00:45:20,200
Speaker 2: wide receiver cornerback matchup column at the Action Network. Chris,

995
00:45:20,480 --> 00:45:24,680
Speaker 2: so many good options in this AFC showdown slate. Where

996
00:45:24,719 --> 00:45:26,920
Speaker 2: are you starting with your lineups?

997
00:45:27,480 --> 00:45:30,160
Speaker 1: So I'm looking at the I'm still looking at the

998
00:45:30,239 --> 00:45:30,759
Speaker 1: Chiefs first.

999
00:45:30,840 --> 00:45:32,520
Speaker 3: You know, I think Damian Williams is going to be

1000
00:45:32,520 --> 00:45:35,000
Speaker 3: a key part of all my lineups, just because I

1001
00:45:35,040 --> 00:45:37,560
Speaker 3: think there's a lot of different ways in which the

1002
00:45:37,640 --> 00:45:40,279
Speaker 3: game script or just the game plan in general could

1003
00:45:40,280 --> 00:45:43,760
Speaker 3: benefit him. I mean, if Belichick does decide to employ,

1004
00:45:43,880 --> 00:45:47,120
Speaker 3: you know, kind of player specific strategies, I think Williams

1005
00:45:47,200 --> 00:45:48,719
Speaker 3: is still the guy you have to make beat you

1006
00:45:49,040 --> 00:45:50,920
Speaker 3: because he's going to be picking up yardage in the

1007
00:45:51,040 --> 00:45:54,120
Speaker 3: in the smallest chunks of any of the Chiefs, you know,

1008
00:45:54,280 --> 00:45:57,440
Speaker 3: star skill position players, and that includes Sammy Watkins.

1009
00:45:57,480 --> 00:45:58,720
Speaker 1: So I like Williams here.

1010
00:45:58,960 --> 00:46:02,120
Speaker 3: I think James White is another key component because I

1011
00:46:02,200 --> 00:46:05,200
Speaker 3: think he's going to be heavily involved here. Julian Edelman

1012
00:46:05,239 --> 00:46:08,839
Speaker 3: actually got held relatively in check last meeting. Now that

1013
00:46:09,160 --> 00:46:12,560
Speaker 3: was with Josh Gordon still on the team, so that

1014
00:46:12,600 --> 00:46:17,200
Speaker 3: could obviously change. But the Chiefs have have had some

1015
00:46:17,239 --> 00:46:20,319
Speaker 3: decent success against wide receivers, tend to give up a

1016
00:46:20,360 --> 00:46:23,040
Speaker 3: lot of production to backs and tight end, so I

1017
00:46:23,080 --> 00:46:26,040
Speaker 3: think I'm looking at White, White, Williams is kind of

1018
00:46:26,120 --> 00:46:28,640
Speaker 3: a core. Definitely want Brady, and they definitely want Mahomes

1019
00:46:28,640 --> 00:46:31,480
Speaker 3: and there obviously, so that's kind of what I'm doing

1020
00:46:31,520 --> 00:46:33,759
Speaker 3: in cash games. I think Michelle is kind of an

1021
00:46:33,800 --> 00:46:38,560
Speaker 3: interesting He's like the volatile guy that in tournaments you

1022
00:46:38,719 --> 00:46:41,200
Speaker 3: probably have to make a decision one way or the

1023
00:46:41,200 --> 00:46:43,319
Speaker 3: other about how you're going to go on. You could

1024
00:46:43,360 --> 00:46:45,799
Speaker 3: make a case to fade him even though he's had

1025
00:46:45,840 --> 00:46:48,120
Speaker 3: success in this matchup with the one hundred and six

1026
00:46:48,200 --> 00:46:51,239
Speaker 3: yards and two scores in the first meeting, because he's

1027
00:46:51,280 --> 00:46:53,920
Speaker 3: had really drastic and this kind of speaks to the

1028
00:46:53,920 --> 00:46:57,800
Speaker 3: Patriots general issues on the road. So Michelle has averaged

1029
00:46:57,920 --> 00:47:01,759
Speaker 3: twenty carries ninety six yards her game at home in

1030
00:47:01,840 --> 00:47:04,920
Speaker 3: seven home games, including last week in the playoffs in

1031
00:47:04,960 --> 00:47:08,400
Speaker 3: that playoff win, and then on the road, thirteen carries

1032
00:47:08,480 --> 00:47:11,400
Speaker 3: for fifty five yards, so totally different kind of outcome.

1033
00:47:11,480 --> 00:47:14,920
Speaker 3: Is median for the season is about sixty one rushing yards.

1034
00:47:14,920 --> 00:47:16,919
Speaker 3: So I actually like the under on his prop because

1035
00:47:16,920 --> 00:47:19,319
Speaker 3: it's up there over eighty. And I think, you know,

1036
00:47:19,400 --> 00:47:21,920
Speaker 3: even though this is a good matchup for him based

1037
00:47:21,960 --> 00:47:23,680
Speaker 3: on the quality of a Chief run defense, which is

1038
00:47:23,719 --> 00:47:26,480
Speaker 3: not very good, it's just like inflated based on the

1039
00:47:26,520 --> 00:47:28,440
Speaker 3: recency bias and when he did in the first matchup,

1040
00:47:28,600 --> 00:47:32,160
Speaker 3: and also the Chiefs at home, I have only given

1041
00:47:32,239 --> 00:47:35,600
Speaker 3: up an eighty one plus yard rusher in four of

1042
00:47:35,640 --> 00:47:37,800
Speaker 3: their nine home games. So I think Michelle is a

1043
00:47:37,800 --> 00:47:40,560
Speaker 3: guy that I'm probably leaning towards maybe being a little

1044
00:47:40,640 --> 00:47:42,880
Speaker 3: underweight on because I think, you know, he will be

1045
00:47:43,040 --> 00:47:46,319
Speaker 3: high owned after what he did last week. Maybe you

1046
00:47:46,520 --> 00:47:49,319
Speaker 3: leverage him with some Birkhead, but I think one of

1047
00:47:49,360 --> 00:47:52,040
Speaker 3: these two receivers will have to make some plays or Gronk,

1048
00:47:52,120 --> 00:47:54,880
Speaker 3: So like that's kind of my like in tournaments, I'm

1049
00:47:54,960 --> 00:47:58,080
Speaker 3: kind of cycling through combinations of like Gronk door set

1050
00:47:58,400 --> 00:48:01,600
Speaker 3: in Hogan and Patterson because I think what, like, somebody

1051
00:48:01,600 --> 00:48:05,759
Speaker 3: there is gonna probably have to factor in besides just

1052
00:48:05,880 --> 00:48:08,239
Speaker 3: White and Edelman in this game for the Patriots to win,

1053
00:48:08,280 --> 00:48:10,160
Speaker 3: because they're gonna need to put up I think they're

1054
00:48:10,160 --> 00:48:13,399
Speaker 3: gonna need to score some points or to like they're

1055
00:48:13,400 --> 00:48:16,200
Speaker 3: gonna need They're gonna such we need to involve someone

1056
00:48:16,200 --> 00:48:18,799
Speaker 3: besides Edelman and White and if Michelle is not as

1057
00:48:18,880 --> 00:48:20,440
Speaker 3: likely to get it going on the ground.

1058
00:48:20,560 --> 00:48:23,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean the I mean, I totally get your

1059
00:48:23,440 --> 00:48:27,280
Speaker 2: point to Yeah, the real question is can they produce

1060
00:48:27,400 --> 00:48:30,960
Speaker 2: enough points doing what they did last week? And I

1061
00:48:30,960 --> 00:48:34,680
Speaker 2: don't know if they can really replicate that performance last week.

1062
00:48:34,880 --> 00:48:36,640
Speaker 2: You know that was just that was them at their

1063
00:48:36,680 --> 00:48:39,480
Speaker 2: peak and just you know, playing an air ahead just

1064
00:48:39,640 --> 00:48:42,160
Speaker 2: a different location. Yeah, I don't know if they're going

1065
00:48:42,200 --> 00:48:44,200
Speaker 2: to be able to do it. So, yeah, they will

1066
00:48:44,239 --> 00:48:46,800
Speaker 2: need to get some sort of production from someone else

1067
00:48:47,239 --> 00:48:50,520
Speaker 2: besides their backs and Julian Edelman. And yeah, I mean

1068
00:48:50,560 --> 00:48:54,239
Speaker 2: the clear guy would be Gronkowski. You know, like if

1069
00:48:54,239 --> 00:48:57,840
Speaker 2: they have Gronk and he's presumably healthy, that would be

1070
00:48:57,920 --> 00:49:00,319
Speaker 2: the guy that hopefully they would rely on. But he

1071
00:49:00,440 --> 00:49:03,440
Speaker 2: just doesn't look like himself anymore. Like he's never been

1072
00:49:03,480 --> 00:49:06,880
Speaker 2: a fast mover, but now he just looks so slow.

1073
00:49:07,320 --> 00:49:08,239
Speaker 2: It's not the same.

1074
00:49:08,400 --> 00:49:11,719
Speaker 1: So he's looking like he's looking like Seattle Jimmy Graham

1075
00:49:12,160 --> 00:49:14,439
Speaker 1: and Green Bay Jimmy Graham. I mean it really is.

1076
00:49:14,640 --> 00:49:16,120
Speaker 1: But it's yeah, and.

1077
00:49:16,080 --> 00:49:18,279
Speaker 3: It's like with these tight ends, you know, because I

1078
00:49:18,280 --> 00:49:21,279
Speaker 3: think sometimes with the receivers, you kind of they slow down,

1079
00:49:21,360 --> 00:49:23,680
Speaker 3: but you know they're like guys like Larry Fitzgerald and

1080
00:49:24,120 --> 00:49:26,640
Speaker 3: like they're crafty. Even Jordan Nelson, I mean down the

1081
00:49:26,640 --> 00:49:29,040
Speaker 3: stretch this year, you know, came up, put together some volume.

1082
00:49:29,040 --> 00:49:30,719
Speaker 1: We saw Crabtree with the with the big game in

1083
00:49:30,760 --> 00:49:31,440
Speaker 1: the playoffs.

1084
00:49:31,520 --> 00:49:33,440
Speaker 3: You know, these guys slowed down, but they're still crafty

1085
00:49:33,520 --> 00:49:34,560
Speaker 3: enough to kind of make it work.

1086
00:49:34,600 --> 00:49:36,520
Speaker 1: But yeah, Gronk was his like.

1087
00:49:36,440 --> 00:49:41,080
Speaker 3: His game was kind of really based on his freakish athleticism,

1088
00:49:41,200 --> 00:49:43,480
Speaker 3: and you're kind of seeing it drop off.

1089
00:49:43,480 --> 00:49:45,400
Speaker 1: And I think the fact that he's.

1090
00:49:45,520 --> 00:49:48,680
Speaker 3: Like his efficiency when targeted isn't really down as much

1091
00:49:48,719 --> 00:49:50,320
Speaker 3: as he's just not being targeted.

1092
00:49:50,400 --> 00:49:51,239
Speaker 1: And I think that.

1093
00:49:51,360 --> 00:49:55,600
Speaker 3: Speaks volumes because you know there's no way that if

1094
00:49:55,840 --> 00:49:57,960
Speaker 3: especially given all the kind of the turnover that's with

1095
00:49:58,000 --> 00:50:00,719
Speaker 3: the Patriots offense this year that if he was, if

1096
00:50:00,719 --> 00:50:02,839
Speaker 3: he's healthy, that they wouldn't be using him.

1097
00:50:02,880 --> 00:50:04,480
Speaker 1: More like the fact that they're using him as a

1098
00:50:04,840 --> 00:50:05,479
Speaker 1: mot like a.

1099
00:50:05,400 --> 00:50:08,440
Speaker 3: Blocker first for thought in the passing game kind of

1100
00:50:08,480 --> 00:50:10,640
Speaker 3: tells you what you need to know about about where

1101
00:50:10,680 --> 00:50:12,440
Speaker 3: he's at, where they feel he's at, and what they're

1102
00:50:12,480 --> 00:50:13,680
Speaker 3: seeing every day in practice.

1103
00:50:13,920 --> 00:50:16,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, he feels like Shack at the end of his career,

1104
00:50:16,840 --> 00:50:18,560
Speaker 2: you know what I mean, where it's just like a

1105
00:50:18,600 --> 00:50:20,319
Speaker 2: guy when he was young who was just like so

1106
00:50:20,560 --> 00:50:24,560
Speaker 2: physically dominant relative to anyone who would try to defend him.

1107
00:50:24,920 --> 00:50:28,120
Speaker 2: And like, I feel like that's how Gronk was young,

1108
00:50:28,400 --> 00:50:32,319
Speaker 2: Like he was just so dominant physically, and now like

1109
00:50:32,400 --> 00:50:34,720
Speaker 2: you see him trying to do some of the same things,

1110
00:50:34,760 --> 00:50:37,160
Speaker 2: but it's just like he's moving in slow motion and

1111
00:50:37,200 --> 00:50:40,040
Speaker 2: he's just you know, like I don't know, fifteen pounds

1112
00:50:40,040 --> 00:50:41,920
Speaker 2: heavier than he used to be or something. It just

1113
00:50:41,920 --> 00:50:42,879
Speaker 2: doesn't seem the same.

1114
00:50:43,560 --> 00:50:45,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, And I don't have the numbers in front of me,

1115
00:50:45,520 --> 00:50:48,359
Speaker 3: but it feels like every time the Patriots are are

1116
00:50:48,600 --> 00:50:51,200
Speaker 3: in a spot where Gronk is like banged up, things

1117
00:50:51,239 --> 00:50:53,919
Speaker 3: tend to not go well. Like the Giant super Bowl

1118
00:50:53,960 --> 00:50:56,040
Speaker 3: comes to mind, and I think there's another game or two,

1119
00:50:56,160 --> 00:50:58,360
Speaker 3: so you know, yeah, like like you said, this is

1120
00:50:58,400 --> 00:51:01,440
Speaker 3: a game where if Gronk, like if the real Gronk

1121
00:51:01,480 --> 00:51:03,320
Speaker 3: is in the ability, he needs to stand up because

1122
00:51:03,440 --> 00:51:06,000
Speaker 3: Dwayne Allen gives you nothing. I wouldn't be surprised to

1123
00:51:06,040 --> 00:51:08,440
Speaker 3: see like a random Dwayn Allen touchdown in this game,

1124
00:51:08,480 --> 00:51:09,920
Speaker 3: though he's caught four passes all year.

1125
00:51:09,960 --> 00:51:10,440
Speaker 1: I think it is.

1126
00:51:11,080 --> 00:51:14,040
Speaker 3: But I mean, like again, Belichick's gonna pull something out

1127
00:51:14,080 --> 00:51:16,359
Speaker 3: of his hat, like you said that, he probably has

1128
00:51:16,400 --> 00:51:18,719
Speaker 3: not done all season, and I wouldn't be surprised if

1129
00:51:18,760 --> 00:51:21,239
Speaker 3: like there's like a bootleg action one way and it's

1130
00:51:21,280 --> 00:51:24,400
Speaker 3: like Dwayne Allen just like breaking free wide open for

1131
00:51:24,480 --> 00:51:26,719
Speaker 3: like a twenty yard touchdown the other way or something

1132
00:51:26,760 --> 00:51:27,040
Speaker 3: like that.

1133
00:51:27,120 --> 00:51:29,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, on a throw from Julian Edelman.

1134
00:51:29,800 --> 00:51:33,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, to screw everybody, to screw Bronk owners and

1135
00:51:33,800 --> 00:51:37,880
Speaker 3: Brady owners, Michelle owners and everyone. Yeah, keep that in

1136
00:51:37,920 --> 00:51:39,600
Speaker 3: mind if you're a twenty showdout.

1137
00:51:39,640 --> 00:51:43,319
Speaker 2: I mean Brady, Like, I think he's pretty clearly the

1138
00:51:43,400 --> 00:51:47,520
Speaker 2: least exciting quarterback out of the four quarterbacks playing this weekend.

1139
00:51:47,760 --> 00:51:50,920
Speaker 2: You know, like from a fantasy perspective, at least to me.

1140
00:51:51,400 --> 00:51:55,720
Speaker 3: I actually have him ranked over Golf I think again,

1141
00:51:55,840 --> 00:51:57,960
Speaker 3: like I think the Ram just because the Rams kind

1142
00:51:57,960 --> 00:52:00,319
Speaker 3: of they're kind of getting run heavy too now.

1143
00:52:00,400 --> 00:52:01,279
Speaker 1: And you know, I.

1144
00:52:01,200 --> 00:52:03,360
Speaker 3: Don't know, God hasn't been good in the playoffs, like

1145
00:52:03,400 --> 00:52:05,760
Speaker 3: for whatever reason. I mean, his his yard per attempt

1146
00:52:05,760 --> 00:52:07,800
Speaker 3: is way down there. So I still like Brady just

1147
00:52:07,800 --> 00:52:09,799
Speaker 3: because I think I still think this game could Like

1148
00:52:09,960 --> 00:52:11,719
Speaker 3: I still think this game has a better shootout chance

1149
00:52:11,760 --> 00:52:14,959
Speaker 3: than the same game. Just like that doesn't make much sense,

1150
00:52:15,000 --> 00:52:16,840
Speaker 3: but it's just it's just because of the quality of

1151
00:52:16,880 --> 00:52:19,919
Speaker 3: this Chiefs offense versus the Saints, which who.

1152
00:52:19,840 --> 00:52:21,839
Speaker 1: Have been kind of sputtering, yeah a little bit.

1153
00:52:22,000 --> 00:52:24,160
Speaker 3: So I like Brady, and I like him as a

1154
00:52:24,160 --> 00:52:26,319
Speaker 3: pivot off Mahomes because Mahomes is more.

1155
00:52:26,239 --> 00:52:27,359
Speaker 1: Expensive on this slate.

1156
00:52:27,440 --> 00:52:30,840
Speaker 3: So like you could get Brady and like, uh like,

1157
00:52:30,920 --> 00:52:33,239
Speaker 3: for example, a Brady Hogan stack that gives you like

1158
00:52:33,280 --> 00:52:35,719
Speaker 3: a lot of a lot of potential air yards or

1159
00:52:35,760 --> 00:52:37,600
Speaker 3: even you know, Brady Gronk Cog and somebody like that

1160
00:52:37,600 --> 00:52:39,400
Speaker 3: gives you a lot of potential air yards and you

1161
00:52:39,400 --> 00:52:41,160
Speaker 3: could still kind of do some other things with the

1162
00:52:41,239 --> 00:52:42,959
Speaker 3: with the rest of your lineup and get like maybe

1163
00:52:42,960 --> 00:52:45,520
Speaker 3: a chief a stud Chiefs receiver and with Damian Williams

1164
00:52:45,520 --> 00:52:48,759
Speaker 3: and whatnot. So I'm not terribly unexcited about him, but

1165
00:52:48,800 --> 00:52:50,359
Speaker 3: I do agree. I think this is the it's gonna

1166
00:52:50,360 --> 00:52:52,680
Speaker 3: be a rough spot for him. The Chiefs number two

1167
00:52:52,800 --> 00:52:55,520
Speaker 3: in sacks at home really as simple as that, you know,

1168
00:52:55,640 --> 00:52:57,960
Speaker 3: can can you get to Brady and pressure him and

1169
00:52:57,960 --> 00:53:00,359
Speaker 3: and throw them off his game and not let just

1170
00:53:00,520 --> 00:53:01,760
Speaker 3: you know, get rid of the ball quick?

1171
00:53:02,160 --> 00:53:05,240
Speaker 2: Yeah? And even if the Chiefs aren't able to get

1172
00:53:05,320 --> 00:53:07,480
Speaker 2: a lot of sacks, I still think they will be

1173
00:53:07,480 --> 00:53:10,440
Speaker 2: able to get like the requisite pressure to make Brady

1174
00:53:10,760 --> 00:53:13,800
Speaker 2: uneasy in the pocket. And I think that's, uh, that's

1175
00:53:13,840 --> 00:53:17,520
Speaker 2: pretty key there you mentioned earlier Sony Michelle and his prop.

1176
00:53:17,760 --> 00:53:20,360
Speaker 2: I should remind everyone to check out the Fantasy Labs

1177
00:53:20,400 --> 00:53:23,560
Speaker 2: Props tool, which is powered by our industry leading projections

1178
00:53:23,560 --> 00:53:26,839
Speaker 2: created by Sean Corner aka the Odds Maker. This year,

1179
00:53:26,960 --> 00:53:29,480
Speaker 2: the NFL props with a bad quality of ten have

1180
00:53:29,640 --> 00:53:32,480
Speaker 2: a sixty five percent hit rate. To access the tool,

1181
00:53:32,520 --> 00:53:37,000
Speaker 2: subscribe to Fantasy Labs. Chris any other DFS thoughts about

1182
00:53:37,040 --> 00:53:37,839
Speaker 2: the slaves.

1183
00:53:37,960 --> 00:53:39,920
Speaker 3: If you're really trying to, you know, got in a

1184
00:53:39,960 --> 00:53:44,200
Speaker 3: tournament with with some dart throws. Garrick Dieter actually out

1185
00:53:44,320 --> 00:53:50,879
Speaker 3: out Rann't get more routes than DeMarcus Robinson four to two,

1186
00:53:51,000 --> 00:53:51,239
Speaker 3: So I.

1187
00:53:51,280 --> 00:53:53,839
Speaker 1: Mean, hey, there's that.

1188
00:53:54,160 --> 00:53:57,200
Speaker 3: And uh, you know, Demetris Harris, he could he's always

1189
00:53:57,239 --> 00:54:00,120
Speaker 3: liable to catch a touchdown averages like one to to

1190
00:54:00,200 --> 00:54:01,240
Speaker 3: targets per game.

1191
00:54:01,440 --> 00:54:03,040
Speaker 1: But yeah, that's pretty much it.

1192
00:54:03,080 --> 00:54:05,319
Speaker 3: I think it's really going to come down to which

1193
00:54:05,360 --> 00:54:09,800
Speaker 3: of these Patriots ancillary weapons, between Ronk, Hogan or or Dorset,

1194
00:54:09,800 --> 00:54:12,360
Speaker 3: who I actually think could be in the best spot

1195
00:54:12,400 --> 00:54:14,640
Speaker 3: if you looked at what they what happened last time,

1196
00:54:15,239 --> 00:54:19,520
Speaker 3: Gronkowski and Hogan ended up having big games, but now

1197
00:54:19,520 --> 00:54:21,640
Speaker 3: it's kind of more like Dorset's in the Hogan role

1198
00:54:22,040 --> 00:54:24,840
Speaker 3: because Gordon's not there, so you could, I think Hogan

1199
00:54:24,920 --> 00:54:26,719
Speaker 3: is going to get more attention in door set, can

1200
00:54:26,800 --> 00:54:29,760
Speaker 3: end up being a guy that gets some some single coverage,

1201
00:54:29,760 --> 00:54:32,400
Speaker 3: and he's been more productive than Hogan for most of

1202
00:54:32,440 --> 00:54:35,640
Speaker 3: the year. So I think I like Dorset as probably

1203
00:54:35,640 --> 00:54:38,880
Speaker 3: the favorite out of those. And still I think you

1204
00:54:38,960 --> 00:54:41,399
Speaker 3: still got to take some shots to Gronk because even

1205
00:54:41,440 --> 00:54:44,400
Speaker 3: if his efficiency is down, I think there's still the

1206
00:54:44,880 --> 00:54:47,839
Speaker 3: chance that he gets you know, targeted in the red

1207
00:54:47,920 --> 00:54:51,760
Speaker 3: zone and that could be leverage off off of Sony Michelle,

1208
00:54:51,760 --> 00:54:54,040
Speaker 3: who I think will still get again a significant amount

1209
00:54:54,040 --> 00:54:54,560
Speaker 3: of ownership.

1210
00:54:55,160 --> 00:54:58,799
Speaker 2: Okay, final words, let's get this money. That is going

1211
00:54:58,840 --> 00:55:01,160
Speaker 2: to do it for the Front Today episode of the

1212
00:55:01,200 --> 00:55:03,680
Speaker 2: Action Network NFL podcast. Be sure to rate, review, and

1213
00:55:03,760 --> 00:55:06,920
Speaker 2: subscribe for all of our upcoming episodes. For Chris Raymond,

1214
00:55:06,960 --> 00:55:09,319
Speaker 2: I Am, Matthew Friedman, Mattet The Oracle, See you Get

1215
00:55:09,400 --> 00:55:10,040
Speaker 2: next episode,