1 00:00:05,800 --> 00:00:08,720 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg p m L Podcast. I'm Pim Fox. 2 00:00:08,760 --> 00:00:11,440 Speaker 1: Along with my co host Lisa A. Brahmowitz. Each day 3 00:00:11,480 --> 00:00:15,000 Speaker 1: we bring you the most important, noteworthy, and useful interviews 4 00:00:15,040 --> 00:00:17,520 Speaker 1: for you and your money, whether you're at the grocery 5 00:00:17,560 --> 00:00:20,560 Speaker 1: store or the trading floor. Find the Bloomberg p m 6 00:00:20,680 --> 00:00:30,720 Speaker 1: L Podcast on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, and Bloomberg dot com. 7 00:00:30,760 --> 00:00:33,199 Speaker 1: It is my pleasure to introduce Gerald Government. He is 8 00:00:33,240 --> 00:00:37,720 Speaker 1: the senior principal partner and chief Investment Officer of Government Partners. 9 00:00:38,040 --> 00:00:40,240 Speaker 1: He joins us here as an expert in all things 10 00:00:40,440 --> 00:00:43,199 Speaker 1: real estate and Gerald Government. I wonder if you could 11 00:00:43,240 --> 00:00:45,120 Speaker 1: just describe a little bit for people that may not 12 00:00:45,200 --> 00:00:49,680 Speaker 1: be familiar with your history and your company, what achievements 13 00:00:49,680 --> 00:00:53,159 Speaker 1: and accomplishments, because they are many, What you can just 14 00:00:53,240 --> 00:00:56,080 Speaker 1: describe to give people a little idea of your background. Sure, 15 00:00:56,280 --> 00:00:59,120 Speaker 1: we're in business now a little over forty nine years. 16 00:00:59,120 --> 00:01:02,240 Speaker 1: Our year will be in a few months as a 17 00:01:02,280 --> 00:01:04,440 Speaker 1: matter of fact, that we have the same partners we 18 00:01:04,520 --> 00:01:08,480 Speaker 1: started in nineteen nine. Next year we're going to celebrate 19 00:01:08,520 --> 00:01:11,160 Speaker 1: the fiftieth year. We're actually going to sign our agreement. 20 00:01:11,760 --> 00:01:14,279 Speaker 1: We never got around to signing it. Because we simply 21 00:01:14,280 --> 00:01:17,319 Speaker 1: couldn't afford the legal fee for an attorney to do it. 22 00:01:17,360 --> 00:01:21,560 Speaker 1: But we are all each other's lifetime friends, and I'm 23 00:01:21,640 --> 00:01:25,240 Speaker 1: very lucky to have this kind of relationship with five 24 00:01:25,280 --> 00:01:29,920 Speaker 1: other guys. UM to know what we do, we are 25 00:01:30,000 --> 00:01:34,240 Speaker 1: in the real estate business. Obviously, we are developers, builders, 26 00:01:34,520 --> 00:01:40,399 Speaker 1: owner operators. On the development side, my company was the 27 00:01:40,440 --> 00:01:45,360 Speaker 1: original owners and developers of the residential portion of Roosevelt 28 00:01:45,400 --> 00:01:51,160 Speaker 1: Dialect called Island House, and we owned it, we operated it. Uh. 29 00:01:51,680 --> 00:01:54,840 Speaker 1: We owned the Glen Oaks Village, which was three thousand 30 00:01:54,920 --> 00:01:59,480 Speaker 1: apartments and queens. We owned a number of properties around Manhattan, 31 00:01:59,640 --> 00:02:06,720 Speaker 1: the Park Vendome to seven Street, fifty Sutton Place South 32 00:02:07,520 --> 00:02:12,600 Speaker 1: for twift Street. UM and the numbers. He's got a list, 33 00:02:13,320 --> 00:02:18,440 Speaker 1: and it adds up to condiment apartments and rental and 34 00:02:18,520 --> 00:02:24,040 Speaker 1: rental apartments owned and managed. The largest condo owner and 35 00:02:24,160 --> 00:02:26,200 Speaker 1: operator at least in New York, if not in the 36 00:02:26,280 --> 00:02:29,520 Speaker 1: in the country. We finished now sixteen thousand and eight 37 00:02:29,560 --> 00:02:33,720 Speaker 1: departments through last year, which they tell me is about 38 00:02:33,840 --> 00:02:38,280 Speaker 1: three and a half times the next largest in the 39 00:02:38,320 --> 00:02:40,720 Speaker 1: New York area. So let's talk about the New York 40 00:02:40,760 --> 00:02:44,960 Speaker 1: area because we've seen cranes still up and bringing up 41 00:02:45,080 --> 00:02:48,640 Speaker 1: more buildings and more buildings. Uh. We were just talking 42 00:02:48,960 --> 00:02:53,800 Speaker 1: ahead of time about how the biggest problem for local 43 00:02:53,960 --> 00:02:57,120 Speaker 1: or residential real estate markets is overbuilding. Are we overbuilt 44 00:02:57,120 --> 00:02:59,560 Speaker 1: in New York? And what is the consequence if we are, 45 00:03:00,040 --> 00:03:04,560 Speaker 1: we're overbuilt to the price level that we're trying to 46 00:03:04,680 --> 00:03:09,359 Speaker 1: sell or rent to. Uh. New York now has a 47 00:03:09,400 --> 00:03:16,720 Speaker 1: reputation that's shared by Miami and Houston, Texas. The reputation is, 48 00:03:16,720 --> 00:03:19,919 Speaker 1: if you give a builder in New York a mortgage, 49 00:03:19,919 --> 00:03:22,639 Speaker 1: you will build in the desert. There's just no limit 50 00:03:23,200 --> 00:03:25,520 Speaker 1: to the amount that will be built as long as 51 00:03:25,520 --> 00:03:28,480 Speaker 1: they can borrow the money. You know, it's a funny 52 00:03:28,520 --> 00:03:32,519 Speaker 1: thing about borrowing money. It's tax free, and a lot 53 00:03:32,560 --> 00:03:37,040 Speaker 1: of the building that goes on throughout the country has 54 00:03:37,080 --> 00:03:40,600 Speaker 1: to do with something called the first draw. The first 55 00:03:40,680 --> 00:03:43,040 Speaker 1: draw is exactly what it seems to be. It is 56 00:03:43,080 --> 00:03:46,800 Speaker 1: the first amount you get from a lender. It is 57 00:03:46,920 --> 00:03:51,480 Speaker 1: tax free because it's alone, but it's also unaccountable. Because 58 00:03:51,520 --> 00:03:54,920 Speaker 1: it's unaccountable. Can you imagine all of the things you 59 00:03:55,000 --> 00:03:59,560 Speaker 1: can cover, all of the mistakes you can cover. And consequently, 60 00:03:59,800 --> 00:04:05,000 Speaker 1: the first draw forces builders to build more because they 61 00:04:05,040 --> 00:04:08,200 Speaker 1: can't cover the course of what they built previously. So 62 00:04:08,240 --> 00:04:10,440 Speaker 1: are we heading toward the crash here with respect to 63 00:04:10,640 --> 00:04:14,080 Speaker 1: the high ends, the mid to high ends condominium markets 64 00:04:14,160 --> 00:04:18,800 Speaker 1: or or or. I am convinced that UM, and a 65 00:04:18,839 --> 00:04:22,200 Speaker 1: reason that I've brought my people back to New York 66 00:04:22,279 --> 00:04:25,279 Speaker 1: because we work in a number of other states, UM, 67 00:04:25,720 --> 00:04:29,000 Speaker 1: is that we are going to see an implosion of 68 00:04:29,040 --> 00:04:34,680 Speaker 1: these ridiculously high priced condominiums that have no reason to 69 00:04:34,800 --> 00:04:37,200 Speaker 1: have been built in the first place. They weren't based on, 70 00:04:37,720 --> 00:04:42,040 Speaker 1: in my humble opinion, sound and reasonable thought. They were 71 00:04:42,080 --> 00:04:45,600 Speaker 1: based on hopes and dreams of being able to attract 72 00:04:45,680 --> 00:04:50,479 Speaker 1: folks from other countries who either had flight capital or 73 00:04:50,800 --> 00:04:53,719 Speaker 1: were simply trying to establish something for ego in the 74 00:04:53,839 --> 00:04:56,560 Speaker 1: United States. And I think you couldn't see from some 75 00:04:56,640 --> 00:04:59,600 Speaker 1: of the prices that have been paid fifty million, seventy 76 00:04:59,640 --> 00:05:02,719 Speaker 1: five hundred million dollars, what does that have to do 77 00:05:02,800 --> 00:05:06,000 Speaker 1: with the time of day? That's simply an outsized ego 78 00:05:06,160 --> 00:05:10,520 Speaker 1: trying to be self satisfied. You have written about something 79 00:05:10,560 --> 00:05:13,000 Speaker 1: described as sleight of hand and magic, and it's not 80 00:05:13,120 --> 00:05:17,359 Speaker 1: about Whodini tell us how slight of hand and magic 81 00:05:17,480 --> 00:05:21,080 Speaker 1: factor into real estate investment. Oh yes, it's some of 82 00:05:21,120 --> 00:05:25,080 Speaker 1: my favorite things. What I have found over the years 83 00:05:26,520 --> 00:05:31,719 Speaker 1: is that when I noticed funds buying portfolios of properties, 84 00:05:32,600 --> 00:05:36,640 Speaker 1: they were buying them for different reasons than what I 85 00:05:36,680 --> 00:05:39,919 Speaker 1: originally thought. I thought they were properly investing the money 86 00:05:40,320 --> 00:05:43,400 Speaker 1: and looking for a return. What I found was they 87 00:05:43,400 --> 00:05:46,600 Speaker 1: were looking for magic. What they would do is they 88 00:05:46,640 --> 00:05:50,000 Speaker 1: would buy a portfolio of maybe three, four, or five 89 00:05:50,120 --> 00:05:54,040 Speaker 1: or more properties, and the seller would agree to take 90 00:05:54,320 --> 00:05:59,560 Speaker 1: the funds in total as one number, without apportioning the 91 00:05:59,640 --> 00:06:03,560 Speaker 1: sale price to each property. So what was happening is 92 00:06:04,160 --> 00:06:08,680 Speaker 1: the buyer was now deciding on what the pro rata 93 00:06:08,800 --> 00:06:12,520 Speaker 1: share of purchase price would be of this total each 94 00:06:12,520 --> 00:06:15,760 Speaker 1: one of the properties. And when he did that, if 95 00:06:15,760 --> 00:06:17,760 Speaker 1: you think of it this way, it's really what happened. 96 00:06:18,000 --> 00:06:21,600 Speaker 1: He could take his best property he was buying and 97 00:06:21,760 --> 00:06:25,520 Speaker 1: put the lowest basis, and he could take the worst 98 00:06:25,560 --> 00:06:29,039 Speaker 1: property he was buying an increase that basis out of 99 00:06:29,080 --> 00:06:35,360 Speaker 1: all reasonable thought. And consequently, when he went to sell first, 100 00:06:35,440 --> 00:06:39,120 Speaker 1: his return on the on the best property became astronomical. 101 00:06:39,480 --> 00:06:43,120 Speaker 1: When he went to sell, he was selling at a 102 00:06:43,320 --> 00:06:47,000 Speaker 1: full spasis. Yeah, well, there are a lot of people 103 00:06:47,040 --> 00:06:49,440 Speaker 1: who are looking for magic, they might get something else. 104 00:06:49,720 --> 00:06:52,839 Speaker 1: Gerald Gotterman, thank you so much. That was fantastic. Gerald 105 00:06:52,839 --> 00:06:57,960 Speaker 1: Gotterman a senior principal partner at Government Partners, overseeing thousands 106 00:06:58,160 --> 00:07:11,680 Speaker 1: and thousands of apartments. We get to speak to one 107 00:07:11,680 --> 00:07:14,360 Speaker 1: of the fifty most powerful women in New York. She 108 00:07:14,480 --> 00:07:17,400 Speaker 1: is sitting with us, Leslie Himmel. She is co managing 109 00:07:17,440 --> 00:07:21,360 Speaker 1: partner of Himmel and Marrying Off Partners, private investor, private 110 00:07:21,400 --> 00:07:25,000 Speaker 1: ut landlord in in New York City and with more 111 00:07:25,040 --> 00:07:27,520 Speaker 1: than thirty years of experience. Leslie, thank you so much 112 00:07:27,560 --> 00:07:29,720 Speaker 1: for being with us. Where are we right now with 113 00:07:29,800 --> 00:07:32,520 Speaker 1: the New York commercial real estate market? We've heard a 114 00:07:32,520 --> 00:07:36,040 Speaker 1: lot about cooling off and pricing. How far is this 115 00:07:36,080 --> 00:07:38,800 Speaker 1: going to go? First of all, thank you for having 116 00:07:38,800 --> 00:07:41,920 Speaker 1: me on your show. Just to Contexas UM. Steve Marongolf 117 00:07:41,960 --> 00:07:45,920 Speaker 1: and I have been investors in Manhattan secondary office buildings 118 00:07:45,960 --> 00:07:48,680 Speaker 1: for the last thirty four years. We've been through many cycles. 119 00:07:49,120 --> 00:07:51,080 Speaker 1: We feel like we've been at a tipping point for 120 00:07:51,120 --> 00:07:53,679 Speaker 1: actually a few years, waiting for interest rates to start 121 00:07:53,720 --> 00:07:56,280 Speaker 1: to rise. I was just on a panel where there 122 00:07:56,360 --> 00:07:59,000 Speaker 1: was a reference on oak Tree saying that there's a 123 00:07:59,000 --> 00:08:03,840 Speaker 1: correlation to cap rates of about point eight to one. 124 00:08:04,640 --> 00:08:07,080 Speaker 1: As interest rates go up, so as interest rates rise, 125 00:08:07,200 --> 00:08:10,760 Speaker 1: pricing should come down. There's been way too much money 126 00:08:10,880 --> 00:08:13,920 Speaker 1: chasing goods here. Cap rates were at three and four 127 00:08:14,080 --> 00:08:16,360 Speaker 1: for a few years, three three and four percent, maybe 128 00:08:16,360 --> 00:08:19,640 Speaker 1: even negative yields. And you've seen the bid ask spread 129 00:08:19,720 --> 00:08:21,560 Speaker 1: changing a lot. So it feels like there's going to 130 00:08:21,680 --> 00:08:24,840 Speaker 1: be repricing. Although New York City is still the best 131 00:08:25,240 --> 00:08:28,560 Speaker 1: capital in the world and lots of international capital is 132 00:08:28,600 --> 00:08:31,040 Speaker 1: still coming here. I wonder if you could just take 133 00:08:31,040 --> 00:08:34,720 Speaker 1: a step back and tell us about Bernard Mendick and 134 00:08:34,760 --> 00:08:39,240 Speaker 1: what influence Bernie Mendick had on your career. Well, that's 135 00:08:39,280 --> 00:08:43,640 Speaker 1: a question I didn't expect. Bernie Mendick was the chair 136 00:08:43,720 --> 00:08:47,320 Speaker 1: of Redney and I knew him in my first real 137 00:08:47,400 --> 00:08:49,280 Speaker 1: estate board in New York. Yeah, yes, the real real 138 00:08:49,400 --> 00:08:52,400 Speaker 1: Estate Board of New York. And UM, I had been 139 00:08:52,400 --> 00:08:56,160 Speaker 1: integrated resources in my start after Harvard Business School, and 140 00:08:56,200 --> 00:08:57,920 Speaker 1: he told me I was going to be nothing unless 141 00:08:57,960 --> 00:09:01,120 Speaker 1: I started my own business. And and um that was 142 00:09:01,120 --> 00:09:03,800 Speaker 1: pretty brave. That was thirty five years ago for a 143 00:09:03,840 --> 00:09:06,040 Speaker 1: woman to try to start our own business as an 144 00:09:06,040 --> 00:09:09,679 Speaker 1: owner and developer, and um I did it. Was the 145 00:09:09,760 --> 00:09:12,920 Speaker 1: right advice. It was a great advice, and I've picked 146 00:09:12,920 --> 00:09:15,880 Speaker 1: a great partner. We've been partners thirty four years. He 147 00:09:16,000 --> 00:09:18,440 Speaker 1: made fun of me in a way because that was 148 00:09:18,440 --> 00:09:21,240 Speaker 1: Bernie's style, and um, he was a great influence and 149 00:09:21,920 --> 00:09:24,520 Speaker 1: I'm very grateful he passed away many years ago. But 150 00:09:24,559 --> 00:09:26,720 Speaker 1: he was a real entrepreneur and I've been able to 151 00:09:26,720 --> 00:09:28,480 Speaker 1: follow a little bit in his footsteps. You know. I 152 00:09:28,480 --> 00:09:29,760 Speaker 1: want to pick up on a point that you were 153 00:09:29,760 --> 00:09:32,920 Speaker 1: talking about with respect to foreign money coming into New York. 154 00:09:33,360 --> 00:09:37,839 Speaker 1: Have you seen that slow with possible capital restrictions from 155 00:09:37,920 --> 00:09:41,960 Speaker 1: China or just the slowing of the economy there. Canada 156 00:09:42,040 --> 00:09:46,280 Speaker 1: has increased they're investing in New York particularly was my 157 00:09:46,360 --> 00:09:49,439 Speaker 1: sub market that I focus on. Um, there's definitely been 158 00:09:49,440 --> 00:09:52,800 Speaker 1: a slowing down in Asian money, but there's still enormous 159 00:09:52,800 --> 00:09:55,880 Speaker 1: amount of capital coming here. UM also from Europe at 160 00:09:55,880 --> 00:09:57,880 Speaker 1: this point. So it's really just an interest rate story 161 00:09:57,880 --> 00:10:02,080 Speaker 1: from your perspective. The cooling it's there was interest rate 162 00:10:02,120 --> 00:10:05,880 Speaker 1: and also alternative investments as one can invest again in bonds. 163 00:10:05,960 --> 00:10:08,920 Speaker 1: You see, even like Black Rocky had three three billion 164 00:10:09,000 --> 00:10:12,760 Speaker 1: dollars go out from their stocks in the last quarter, 165 00:10:13,040 --> 00:10:16,200 Speaker 1: so you're seeing money flow from stocks into investing in 166 00:10:16,320 --> 00:10:19,960 Speaker 1: bond investments again, and and therefore, you know, real estate 167 00:10:20,000 --> 00:10:23,559 Speaker 1: we should catch up eventually with inflation. I think you 168 00:10:23,559 --> 00:10:26,079 Speaker 1: you'll still have a steady flow. We're not going We're 169 00:10:26,120 --> 00:10:28,760 Speaker 1: not going off a cliff this time. You've been quoted 170 00:10:28,760 --> 00:10:33,120 Speaker 1: as saying that Midtown Manhattan will look really different, but 171 00:10:33,400 --> 00:10:36,240 Speaker 1: it will take five years most likely ten. Tell us 172 00:10:36,280 --> 00:10:39,080 Speaker 1: how it will look different. Okay, but Lisa and I 173 00:10:39,120 --> 00:10:42,440 Speaker 1: were talking before the show about our strategy for thirty 174 00:10:42,480 --> 00:10:45,720 Speaker 1: or four years has been buying in emerging neighborhoods. We 175 00:10:45,840 --> 00:10:49,400 Speaker 1: bought in Harlem, we butt in uh Soho, we bought 176 00:10:49,520 --> 00:10:52,800 Speaker 1: No Hoo, we bought a Longan City almost thirty years ago. 177 00:10:53,280 --> 00:10:56,719 Speaker 1: Midtown East is the new emerging market, and it's so 178 00:10:56,840 --> 00:10:59,080 Speaker 1: out right now. Tenants are paying more to be like 179 00:10:59,120 --> 00:11:01,440 Speaker 1: Netflix paid hundred and twenty dollars a foot to be 180 00:11:01,480 --> 00:11:04,319 Speaker 1: on Little Broadway in eighteen Street. Nobody wants to be 181 00:11:04,360 --> 00:11:08,040 Speaker 1: in Midtown. The new zoning that we finally got after 182 00:11:08,080 --> 00:11:11,720 Speaker 1: eight years of fighting is going to help kickstart the 183 00:11:11,800 --> 00:11:15,640 Speaker 1: renovation and rebuilding of properties, and it's just going to reimagined. 184 00:11:15,720 --> 00:11:17,680 Speaker 1: It's going to take at least five, maybe ten years 185 00:11:17,679 --> 00:11:19,920 Speaker 1: for it to come back. It's still an epicenter of 186 00:11:20,000 --> 00:11:23,120 Speaker 1: New York. Are you buying right now in Midtown East 187 00:11:23,280 --> 00:11:24,840 Speaker 1: or are you sitting on the sidelines for a while. 188 00:11:25,200 --> 00:11:27,599 Speaker 1: We're waiting for pricing to get a little bit more realistic. 189 00:11:27,640 --> 00:11:29,360 Speaker 1: But we have a word chest of a few hundred 190 00:11:29,360 --> 00:11:32,440 Speaker 1: million dollars ready to pounce with institutional partners to back 191 00:11:32,520 --> 00:11:34,360 Speaker 1: us up. How much do prices have to come down 192 00:11:34,480 --> 00:11:37,280 Speaker 1: to get in? They just have There has to be 193 00:11:37,280 --> 00:11:39,360 Speaker 1: more volume on the market and I think about ten 194 00:11:39,400 --> 00:11:44,360 Speaker 1: percent maybe fifteen rebuilding the rebuilding of Park Avenue. Do 195 00:11:44,440 --> 00:11:48,440 Speaker 1: you see that calculus changing at all? Well, I think 196 00:11:48,520 --> 00:11:52,040 Speaker 1: Fisher Brothers had this fabulous contest where they had everything 197 00:11:52,080 --> 00:11:55,120 Speaker 1: being reimagined. Um, they're doing a great job in getting 198 00:11:55,120 --> 00:11:57,920 Speaker 1: creative and I think there'll be something happening in the 199 00:11:57,920 --> 00:11:59,959 Speaker 1: next five or ten years and it's necessary to make 200 00:12:00,000 --> 00:12:04,280 Speaker 1: it cool again. The recent announcement that JP Morgan is 201 00:12:04,280 --> 00:12:07,199 Speaker 1: going to tear down their building on Park Avenue build 202 00:12:07,240 --> 00:12:11,160 Speaker 1: a new bigger, better, brighter, taller, is that what's going 203 00:12:11,200 --> 00:12:14,400 Speaker 1: to happen. That's gonna be one example of many that 204 00:12:14,440 --> 00:12:17,319 Speaker 1: you're going to say they're the air rights transfer that 205 00:12:17,360 --> 00:12:19,959 Speaker 1: you can have from landmarks. That's happening in multiple buildings 206 00:12:20,040 --> 00:12:24,439 Speaker 1: right now. Is there any neighborhood in New York City 207 00:12:24,480 --> 00:12:28,360 Speaker 1: that you think could even see values appreciate going forward 208 00:12:28,600 --> 00:12:33,000 Speaker 1: in the next say two years, The boroughs really even 209 00:12:33,000 --> 00:12:38,040 Speaker 1: after Brooklyn already like well, the Opportunity Zone legislation is 210 00:12:38,080 --> 00:12:40,280 Speaker 1: going to bring a lot of money to the to 211 00:12:40,400 --> 00:12:44,120 Speaker 1: the Boroughs. All right, well done, Thank you very much 212 00:12:44,160 --> 00:12:46,480 Speaker 1: for being here and having us here at the Eisner 213 00:12:46,520 --> 00:12:48,839 Speaker 1: Amper Global Leaders in Real Estate a Summit, and want 214 00:12:48,840 --> 00:12:51,920 Speaker 1: to thank you very much Leslie Himmel, co, Managing partner 215 00:12:51,960 --> 00:12:55,080 Speaker 1: at Himmel Marong Golf Properties, telling us all about New 216 00:12:55,160 --> 00:12:58,120 Speaker 1: York real estate. Well done at congratulations, Thank you so 217 00:12:58,200 --> 00:13:11,120 Speaker 1: much for having me right now. I want to introduce 218 00:13:11,160 --> 00:13:13,200 Speaker 1: a very special guest. We are privileged to be able 219 00:13:13,240 --> 00:13:15,520 Speaker 1: to speak with Don People's, the chairman and chief executive 220 00:13:15,880 --> 00:13:19,920 Speaker 1: of the People's Corporation, long time experience in the markets, 221 00:13:20,400 --> 00:13:22,720 Speaker 1: a real good bird's eye view over what's going on. 222 00:13:22,800 --> 00:13:26,640 Speaker 1: So let's start there. We got more disappointing housing data today. 223 00:13:26,960 --> 00:13:29,800 Speaker 1: Where are we in the housing cycle? From your perspective, um, 224 00:13:29,840 --> 00:13:32,560 Speaker 1: I think that we are in a more in the 225 00:13:32,600 --> 00:13:35,600 Speaker 1: bottom half bottom of the cycle. Right now, I think 226 00:13:35,640 --> 00:13:38,680 Speaker 1: that the markets catching his breath. I mean everything's healthy. 227 00:13:38,720 --> 00:13:43,040 Speaker 1: I mean job growth, employment, everything's very healthy. I mean 228 00:13:43,240 --> 00:13:47,440 Speaker 1: cost have um had a big impact on affordability, and 229 00:13:47,520 --> 00:13:50,040 Speaker 1: so fewer people are able to buy right now because 230 00:13:50,280 --> 00:13:53,000 Speaker 1: not because of income issues, but because of the rising 231 00:13:53,000 --> 00:13:55,200 Speaker 1: and run up and cost and so the markets now 232 00:13:55,320 --> 00:13:57,920 Speaker 1: got to find its way back down. I mean developers, 233 00:13:58,040 --> 00:14:01,920 Speaker 1: you know, my company included, we were extremely optimistic that 234 00:14:02,000 --> 00:14:05,920 Speaker 1: this big run um of price increases would continue. And 235 00:14:06,000 --> 00:14:08,120 Speaker 1: it's it's not, and it shouldn't have. I mean what 236 00:14:08,240 --> 00:14:12,000 Speaker 1: happened is that we had the Great Recession. Development came 237 00:14:12,040 --> 00:14:14,880 Speaker 1: to a screeching halt up until say two thousand, late 238 00:14:14,880 --> 00:14:17,760 Speaker 1: two thousand, two thousand twelve, and there was huge pent 239 00:14:17,840 --> 00:14:21,000 Speaker 1: up demand. Well, the market has now satisfied that pent 240 00:14:21,080 --> 00:14:24,320 Speaker 1: up demand and now we're back on a more equilibrium level. 241 00:14:24,400 --> 00:14:26,880 Speaker 1: So we can't have these big run ups on prices 242 00:14:26,920 --> 00:14:29,360 Speaker 1: I mean cast of materials and cost of run up 243 00:14:29,360 --> 00:14:32,560 Speaker 1: significantly because of this big rush to develop. So now 244 00:14:32,600 --> 00:14:34,280 Speaker 1: things gonna settle down a little bit, and I think 245 00:14:34,320 --> 00:14:39,160 Speaker 1: we'll see a much more healthy market, barring some catastrophic event. 246 00:14:39,640 --> 00:14:42,240 Speaker 1: The market is gonna level off. There'll be a normal 247 00:14:42,320 --> 00:14:46,000 Speaker 1: growth as opposed to this extreme volatility UM in the 248 00:14:46,200 --> 00:14:48,920 Speaker 1: in the real estate market. Just to step back for 249 00:14:48,960 --> 00:14:53,280 Speaker 1: a moment, Uh, you left Rutgers pre med to go 250 00:14:53,360 --> 00:14:57,480 Speaker 1: into real estate. Yeah, you did a major development in 251 00:14:57,600 --> 00:15:01,560 Speaker 1: d C that was successful. Then something happened. You decided 252 00:15:01,600 --> 00:15:03,200 Speaker 1: to go You want to go to Miami. Now you're 253 00:15:03,200 --> 00:15:07,600 Speaker 1: based in Coral Gables. You've got properties all over the 254 00:15:07,720 --> 00:15:13,680 Speaker 1: United States. But your tagline of the company is affirmative Development, 255 00:15:13,960 --> 00:15:18,120 Speaker 1: and that's not by coincidence. Can you tell us about that? Well? 256 00:15:18,240 --> 00:15:20,920 Speaker 1: Thank you, m'm and PIM. We like, you know, as 257 00:15:20,960 --> 00:15:24,240 Speaker 1: a company, we like geographic and product type diversification. So 258 00:15:24,280 --> 00:15:28,600 Speaker 1: I like to um do go into other markets, urban 259 00:15:28,600 --> 00:15:32,400 Speaker 1: gateway markets with big barriers to entry. UM. But you know, 260 00:15:32,440 --> 00:15:35,000 Speaker 1: I quit Rutgers to go work in real estate. And 261 00:15:35,040 --> 00:15:37,280 Speaker 1: I was exposed to real estate by my mother. UM. 262 00:15:37,280 --> 00:15:40,360 Speaker 1: My mother raised me and my parents were divorced when 263 00:15:40,400 --> 00:15:42,840 Speaker 1: I was five, So she was a breadwinner in our household, 264 00:15:43,240 --> 00:15:46,440 Speaker 1: and she was knocking down you know, um and confronting 265 00:15:46,480 --> 00:15:50,520 Speaker 1: barriers throughout her career. Uh. And so I wanted to 266 00:15:50,560 --> 00:15:54,400 Speaker 1: create an environment in my company that recognizes that we 267 00:15:54,440 --> 00:15:57,040 Speaker 1: need to make this a more level playing field. And 268 00:15:57,160 --> 00:15:59,600 Speaker 1: so how to do that is to make sure by 269 00:15:59,680 --> 00:16:03,080 Speaker 1: my company that we provide access to equal opportunities for 270 00:16:03,240 --> 00:16:06,080 Speaker 1: minority and women entrepreneurs. So as a whole, throughout our 271 00:16:06,080 --> 00:16:09,800 Speaker 1: company UM, we since the history of our company, twenty 272 00:16:09,880 --> 00:16:13,120 Speaker 1: five over of all of our contracts for our projects 273 00:16:13,120 --> 00:16:15,680 Speaker 1: have gone to minority and women owned businesses. I mean, 274 00:16:15,840 --> 00:16:18,120 Speaker 1: so think about this New York City six or seven 275 00:16:18,120 --> 00:16:22,040 Speaker 1: percent minority and as we stand today and as fifty 276 00:16:22,080 --> 00:16:24,360 Speaker 1: three percent female, and if we stand today, the city 277 00:16:24,400 --> 00:16:27,040 Speaker 1: does less than three percent of its contract with minority 278 00:16:27,040 --> 00:16:29,040 Speaker 1: and women own businesses. So I'm very proud of that. 279 00:16:29,280 --> 00:16:31,480 Speaker 1: And so that's a big part of what our company 280 00:16:31,800 --> 00:16:35,080 Speaker 1: UM does is we create environments of our opportunity. We 281 00:16:35,160 --> 00:16:40,400 Speaker 1: are a capitalistic democracy. A capitalistic democracy means that businesses lead, 282 00:16:40,680 --> 00:16:44,160 Speaker 1: entrepreneurs innovate and lead. And so we cannot advocate this 283 00:16:44,280 --> 00:16:48,680 Speaker 1: responsibility of a of a of inclusiveness UM to the 284 00:16:48,720 --> 00:16:51,720 Speaker 1: public sector, and the private sector has a key role 285 00:16:51,800 --> 00:16:54,400 Speaker 1: to do that. Larry Thinks set that in his annual 286 00:16:54,480 --> 00:16:57,920 Speaker 1: letter to shareholders that UM, you know, black Rock has 287 00:16:57,960 --> 00:17:01,120 Speaker 1: to do more than just make profits, but invest UM 288 00:17:01,520 --> 00:17:04,359 Speaker 1: in an impact investing and I think big part of 289 00:17:04,400 --> 00:17:08,240 Speaker 1: that is that, you know, opportunities ought to be reflective 290 00:17:08,440 --> 00:17:12,160 Speaker 1: of the demographics of our society and they're not, and 291 00:17:12,400 --> 00:17:15,720 Speaker 1: especially in the business sector, and so businesses have to 292 00:17:15,760 --> 00:17:18,679 Speaker 1: accept that responsibility. And so that's what why we do 293 00:17:18,720 --> 00:17:21,439 Speaker 1: what we do. Businesses lead so to politicians, and the 294 00:17:21,480 --> 00:17:24,880 Speaker 1: Washington Post reported that you're considering running for New York 295 00:17:24,920 --> 00:17:27,680 Speaker 1: City mayor. Is that still in the carts? Yeah, I mean, look, 296 00:17:27,680 --> 00:17:30,600 Speaker 1: I'm considering it, UM. I did before. UM. I don't 297 00:17:30,640 --> 00:17:34,520 Speaker 1: have a personal ambition UH to be in politics or 298 00:17:35,040 --> 00:17:37,400 Speaker 1: personal ambition to be a mayor of New York City. 299 00:17:37,400 --> 00:17:39,720 Speaker 1: I never have had that kind of personal ambition, but 300 00:17:39,760 --> 00:17:44,480 Speaker 1: I do UM have a personal commitment to UM balancing 301 00:17:44,480 --> 00:17:47,600 Speaker 1: a system that you know makes our country great and 302 00:17:48,040 --> 00:17:51,639 Speaker 1: entrepreneurship and business is what makes America a great nation 303 00:17:51,720 --> 00:17:55,399 Speaker 1: amongst its people, and so we have a responsibility as 304 00:17:55,400 --> 00:17:58,119 Speaker 1: a business UM to do that. So I'm interested in 305 00:17:58,119 --> 00:18:01,359 Speaker 1: that regard. I'm curious as a business owner, do you 306 00:18:01,400 --> 00:18:03,359 Speaker 1: think that the policy is currently in place at a 307 00:18:03,480 --> 00:18:08,600 Speaker 1: national level are very supportive of business? Yes, but they 308 00:18:08,920 --> 00:18:15,760 Speaker 1: create UM unfortunately, how how they're being presented unfortunately, UM 309 00:18:15,960 --> 00:18:19,399 Speaker 1: are creating a great deal of divisiveness. And yeah, I 310 00:18:19,400 --> 00:18:24,040 Speaker 1: think less regulations good for entrepreneurship. I think, uh you know, um, 311 00:18:24,240 --> 00:18:27,520 Speaker 1: more free flowing capital is good for entrepreneurship. I mean, 312 00:18:27,600 --> 00:18:30,600 Speaker 1: but there are I mean, there's a there's an their 313 00:18:30,640 --> 00:18:34,160 Speaker 1: institutions also that are very important for our country as well, 314 00:18:34,240 --> 00:18:36,359 Speaker 1: such as I mean the Federal Reserve. I mean that 315 00:18:36,400 --> 00:18:40,080 Speaker 1: should be immune from politics. UM. So so it's a 316 00:18:40,080 --> 00:18:44,080 Speaker 1: double edged store. Well, just to to amplify that, I mean, 317 00:18:44,119 --> 00:18:46,280 Speaker 1: you are a congressional page, so you've seen it from 318 00:18:46,320 --> 00:18:48,240 Speaker 1: the inside, and now you see it from the other 319 00:18:48,320 --> 00:18:51,000 Speaker 1: side as well. Yes. In fact, I was a page 320 00:18:51,040 --> 00:18:53,280 Speaker 1: my last and an intern um my last few years 321 00:18:53,320 --> 00:18:57,160 Speaker 1: of high school. And so I have um watched UM 322 00:18:57,480 --> 00:19:01,920 Speaker 1: multiple presidents, every president since Carter. I've actually met them, 323 00:19:02,000 --> 00:19:03,600 Speaker 1: and I've seen them in action. And I've been a 324 00:19:03,600 --> 00:19:06,800 Speaker 1: student of politics and and the ability to be transfer 325 00:19:07,000 --> 00:19:09,560 Speaker 1: of politics be transformative, and also how the nation has 326 00:19:09,640 --> 00:19:13,480 Speaker 1: changed and evolved. Civil rights movement happened in my lifetime, UM, 327 00:19:13,640 --> 00:19:17,840 Speaker 1: Women's rights, Um, you know, happened in my lifetime early 328 00:19:17,880 --> 00:19:20,760 Speaker 1: in my early in my adult life. UM. And so 329 00:19:20,800 --> 00:19:23,399 Speaker 1: I've seen a lot happen. So in twenty seconds, are 330 00:19:23,440 --> 00:19:25,640 Speaker 1: there any areas in the United States that you think 331 00:19:25,880 --> 00:19:28,480 Speaker 1: still could see price gains? You see US opportunities? Yes, 332 00:19:28,520 --> 00:19:30,760 Speaker 1: I think Los Angeles is gonna see price gains. I 333 00:19:30,800 --> 00:19:34,800 Speaker 1: think uh, Charlotte UM is gonna see price games. Miami 334 00:19:34,960 --> 00:19:37,200 Speaker 1: and South Florida as a whole is gonna get another run, 335 00:19:37,359 --> 00:19:39,960 Speaker 1: and Central Florida is gonna get another run. Those will 336 00:19:40,000 --> 00:19:44,199 Speaker 1: be in in Tennessee. UM. Those are where people are 337 00:19:44,240 --> 00:19:47,400 Speaker 1: moving to in businesses are moving to UM for different reasons, 338 00:19:47,640 --> 00:19:50,520 Speaker 1: mainly for taxes, and so we'll see some more growth 339 00:19:50,560 --> 00:19:53,960 Speaker 1: in those markets. And of course you'll announce whether you're 340 00:19:53,960 --> 00:19:56,800 Speaker 1: gonna run from mayor with us, right, I mean, if 341 00:19:57,000 --> 00:19:59,639 Speaker 1: you decide to do that, if I decided to do that, 342 00:19:59,680 --> 00:20:02,200 Speaker 1: I would certainly do that. All right, well done, Thanks 343 00:20:02,280 --> 00:20:05,080 Speaker 1: very much for being with us. Don Peebles he is 344 00:20:05,119 --> 00:20:08,440 Speaker 1: the chairman and the chief executive of the People's Corporation. 345 00:20:08,520 --> 00:20:22,280 Speaker 1: They are based in Coral Gables, Florida. Joining us now 346 00:20:22,280 --> 00:20:25,359 Speaker 1: that way, we have Jim Bianco. He is the president 347 00:20:25,400 --> 00:20:28,639 Speaker 1: and founder of Bianco Research. He is also a Bloomberg 348 00:20:28,680 --> 00:20:33,320 Speaker 1: Opinion columnist. Jim Bianco, let's begin with President Donald Trump 349 00:20:33,359 --> 00:20:36,320 Speaker 1: and his attack on j Pal chairman of the Federal Reserve. 350 00:20:36,440 --> 00:20:40,480 Speaker 1: Your reaction, I don't have a problem with it. I 351 00:20:40,520 --> 00:20:43,359 Speaker 1: know a lot of people do the Federal Reserve. I 352 00:20:43,440 --> 00:20:45,919 Speaker 1: kind of put in this kind of a parallel with 353 00:20:46,040 --> 00:20:50,560 Speaker 1: the Supreme Court. We always criticize the Supreme Court. Yes, 354 00:20:50,920 --> 00:20:53,760 Speaker 1: the President could remove a Federal Reserve chairman for cause, 355 00:20:53,840 --> 00:20:57,399 Speaker 1: but the hurdle is very, very high, and Trump has 356 00:20:57,440 --> 00:20:59,880 Speaker 1: said to the point so far that he doesn't want 357 00:20:59,880 --> 00:21:02,639 Speaker 1: to do that. But there's nothing wrong with the President 358 00:21:02,680 --> 00:21:07,119 Speaker 1: of the United Space expressing his opinion about monetary policy 359 00:21:07,280 --> 00:21:11,280 Speaker 1: in making the Federal Reserve explain themselves. If they believe 360 00:21:11,920 --> 00:21:15,480 Speaker 1: his criticism of monetary policy will affect it, then we 361 00:21:15,480 --> 00:21:19,400 Speaker 1: should frankly look for new Federal Reserve personnel that are 362 00:21:20,000 --> 00:21:24,120 Speaker 1: able to stomach somebody questioning what they're due. They are 363 00:21:24,160 --> 00:21:27,080 Speaker 1: not allowed to live in an ivy tower without criticism. 364 00:21:27,320 --> 00:21:29,480 Speaker 1: And there's nothing wrong with what the President is doing. Now, 365 00:21:29,480 --> 00:21:32,399 Speaker 1: maybe the words he's chosen, I would have chosen different words, 366 00:21:32,440 --> 00:21:35,000 Speaker 1: but I don't have a problem with with what he's 367 00:21:35,000 --> 00:21:37,240 Speaker 1: attempting to do here. Do you think that he's right? 368 00:21:37,640 --> 00:21:39,520 Speaker 1: Do you think that the Federal Reserve is raising rates 369 00:21:39,560 --> 00:21:41,919 Speaker 1: too quickly. I do think he's right, and I do 370 00:21:42,000 --> 00:21:44,200 Speaker 1: think the Federal Reserve is raising races too quickly. But 371 00:21:44,240 --> 00:21:46,160 Speaker 1: I also would have said, even if I didn't believe 372 00:21:46,200 --> 00:21:50,120 Speaker 1: that it was okay for him to uh to do this. 373 00:21:50,400 --> 00:21:54,760 Speaker 1: And I do think that the Federal Reserve should be asked, 374 00:21:55,680 --> 00:21:58,760 Speaker 1: as J. Paul was in the first question of his 375 00:21:58,760 --> 00:22:01,679 Speaker 1: press conference in September two, only six the history of 376 00:22:01,680 --> 00:22:05,840 Speaker 1: the Federal Reserve is you raise rates too much, something breaks, 377 00:22:06,200 --> 00:22:08,000 Speaker 1: and then it's too late, we have a recession. There 378 00:22:08,040 --> 00:22:10,840 Speaker 1: is the leading cause of recessions over the last time 379 00:22:10,880 --> 00:22:13,960 Speaker 1: of years. Hold on a second, Jim, there is a 380 00:22:14,000 --> 00:22:17,119 Speaker 1: whole school of thought that at a certain point keeping 381 00:22:17,200 --> 00:22:19,560 Speaker 1: rates too low is harmful for the economy. That if 382 00:22:19,560 --> 00:22:21,640 Speaker 1: you raise rates and actually people can earn some money 383 00:22:21,680 --> 00:22:23,520 Speaker 1: on their cash, they can actually use it to go 384 00:22:23,520 --> 00:22:26,679 Speaker 1: out and spend and it actually boosts growth. What do 385 00:22:26,680 --> 00:22:30,000 Speaker 1: you say to that. I absolutely agree with that that 386 00:22:30,520 --> 00:22:35,040 Speaker 1: monetary policy in the extreme either way creates dislocations in 387 00:22:35,080 --> 00:22:38,600 Speaker 1: the economy. Too low can create problems, too high can 388 00:22:38,600 --> 00:22:41,760 Speaker 1: create problems. The question is whether or not they're going 389 00:22:41,800 --> 00:22:44,760 Speaker 1: too high. One of the leading indicators that says the 390 00:22:44,800 --> 00:22:47,760 Speaker 1: FETs move too much is an inverted deal curve. We 391 00:22:47,840 --> 00:22:50,359 Speaker 1: don't have that now, but we are on our way 392 00:22:50,400 --> 00:22:54,280 Speaker 1: towards one. Especially if the FETE intends on raising rates 393 00:22:54,280 --> 00:22:57,200 Speaker 1: four more times between now in the end of next year, 394 00:22:57,560 --> 00:22:59,720 Speaker 1: we could very well be at an inverted deal curve. 395 00:23:00,280 --> 00:23:02,560 Speaker 1: And when the FETE is asked about this, they dismissed 396 00:23:02,560 --> 00:23:05,960 Speaker 1: the yel curve. We've done that every cycle. They dismissed it, 397 00:23:05,960 --> 00:23:07,680 Speaker 1: and it always turns out to be a good indicator. 398 00:23:08,280 --> 00:23:12,680 Speaker 1: And um, when asked, yeah, just back to my thing. 399 00:23:13,119 --> 00:23:15,240 Speaker 1: When I asked that, the first question of the presser 400 00:23:15,280 --> 00:23:19,440 Speaker 1: in September, uh, are you gonna go till something breaks? 401 00:23:19,440 --> 00:23:22,520 Speaker 1: How uncharacteristically did not have any answer for that. He 402 00:23:22,640 --> 00:23:24,840 Speaker 1: just basically said, you know, we're smart people and hopefully 403 00:23:24,840 --> 00:23:27,120 Speaker 1: we'll figure it out before we get there. They don't 404 00:23:27,160 --> 00:23:29,399 Speaker 1: know where the breaking point is. So that's why I 405 00:23:29,400 --> 00:23:33,359 Speaker 1: think it's fair to ask those questions. This is dangerous stuff. 406 00:23:33,359 --> 00:23:36,160 Speaker 1: When you raise rates eight times, planner raising rates four 407 00:23:36,200 --> 00:23:39,960 Speaker 1: more times. History has shown you cause problems when you 408 00:23:40,000 --> 00:23:43,480 Speaker 1: do this. That's your history, and there's got to be 409 00:23:43,480 --> 00:23:47,160 Speaker 1: a better answer than hopefully we won't create another problem 410 00:23:47,160 --> 00:23:49,600 Speaker 1: again this time we'll see. That seems to be what 411 00:23:49,640 --> 00:23:52,679 Speaker 1: they said. They're saying right now, Jim Bianco. If you 412 00:23:52,760 --> 00:23:55,680 Speaker 1: happen to be an investor that is long stocks, what's 413 00:23:55,720 --> 00:23:58,480 Speaker 1: the best hedge against the market sell off? If you 414 00:23:58,560 --> 00:24:02,200 Speaker 1: don't want to sell them. Um, that's a good question 415 00:24:02,280 --> 00:24:07,199 Speaker 1: because what's happening in the marketplace now, excuse me, is 416 00:24:07,200 --> 00:24:12,359 Speaker 1: that the relationships between stocks and bonds and all the 417 00:24:12,400 --> 00:24:16,400 Speaker 1: other assets is becoming very correlated, meaning they all move 418 00:24:16,480 --> 00:24:20,440 Speaker 1: up and down together. Meaning if you want to look, 419 00:24:20,560 --> 00:24:22,240 Speaker 1: what do I do with my money if the stock 420 00:24:22,280 --> 00:24:24,920 Speaker 1: market is not working, the answer is there's not much 421 00:24:24,960 --> 00:24:28,119 Speaker 1: you can do except for cash. If you want to 422 00:24:28,119 --> 00:24:30,840 Speaker 1: move to cash, that's always a safe instrument to put 423 00:24:30,880 --> 00:24:33,320 Speaker 1: your money in your you you earn two percent because 424 00:24:33,320 --> 00:24:35,600 Speaker 1: that's about where cash is, but you don't take any 425 00:24:35,600 --> 00:24:39,440 Speaker 1: downside risk. If the question then is why anything but cash, 426 00:24:39,440 --> 00:24:41,680 Speaker 1: the answer is there is no option. That has been 427 00:24:41,760 --> 00:24:45,199 Speaker 1: the biggest problem with the market this year is the 428 00:24:45,280 --> 00:24:49,080 Speaker 1: recorrelation of all of these markets together. Your cover story 429 00:24:49,080 --> 00:24:52,280 Speaker 1: in Bloomberg magazine about what's happening at a q R 430 00:24:52,320 --> 00:24:54,679 Speaker 1: and the problems they're having is a direct result of this. 431 00:24:55,000 --> 00:24:57,480 Speaker 1: Is that all of these markets are becoming very correlated, 432 00:24:57,680 --> 00:25:00,720 Speaker 1: and it's been a very difficult problem a lot of people. 433 00:25:01,440 --> 00:25:03,359 Speaker 1: Jim Bianco, we love having you on. Thank you so 434 00:25:03,440 --> 00:25:05,760 Speaker 1: much for being with us. Jim Bianco is president and 435 00:25:05,800 --> 00:25:08,960 Speaker 1: founder of Bianco Research Research, as well as a Bloomberg 436 00:25:08,960 --> 00:25:14,760 Speaker 1: opinion columnist. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg P and 437 00:25:14,880 --> 00:25:17,920 Speaker 1: L podcast. You can subscribe and listen to interviews at 438 00:25:17,960 --> 00:25:22,400 Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm 439 00:25:22,440 --> 00:25:25,879 Speaker 1: Pim Fox. I'm on Twitter at pim Fox. I'm on 440 00:25:25,920 --> 00:25:29,199 Speaker 1: Twitter at Lisa Abramo. It's one before the podcast. You 441 00:25:29,200 --> 00:25:31,720 Speaker 1: can always catch us worldwide on Bloomberg Radio