WEBVTT - Trump Cabinet Picks, Disney Earnings 0:00:00.080 --> 0:00:06.760 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. 0:00:08.240 --> 0:00:12.119 You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 0:00:12.200 --> 0:00:14.920 weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple car Playing and 0:00:15.040 --> 0:00:17.919 broud Otto with the Bloomberg Business app Listen on demand 0:00:17.960 --> 0:00:22.280 wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 0:00:22.920 --> 0:00:25.880 Boy, the appointments John are coming fast and furious from 0:00:26.079 --> 0:00:29.040 the Trump group here in terms of his appointments to 0:00:29.080 --> 0:00:32.320 his cabinet naming some I guess zar is the term 0:00:32.400 --> 0:00:36.239 for some of these people. But he's certainly wasting no 0:00:36.320 --> 0:00:39.840 time this time around to setting things up for his team. 0:00:39.880 --> 0:00:41.720 And if you want to get the inside skinny on 0:00:41.880 --> 0:00:45.839 kind of what's happening with the Trump group, mister Trump himself, 0:00:45.880 --> 0:00:49.400 President Like Trump. Tim O'Brien's the best guy, right, I mean, 0:00:49.400 --> 0:00:51.600 he's senior executive editor Bloomberg Opinion. 0:00:51.840 --> 0:00:55.880 He has a very long history with Donald Trump. 0:00:56.120 --> 0:00:58.160 You can google that and see the history there, so 0:00:58.240 --> 0:01:01.720 he knows what he's talking about. President Like Trump has 0:01:01.720 --> 0:01:03.800 been very busy for the last three or four days 0:01:04.160 --> 0:01:07.240 filling out his cabinet. What's your takeaway because there's some 0:01:07.360 --> 0:01:08.640 unusual choices. 0:01:09.160 --> 0:01:11.840 Well, you know, the thinking had been during his first 0:01:11.920 --> 0:01:13.800 visit in the White House that he had this mix 0:01:13.840 --> 0:01:17.680 of advisors that were people there who were loyalists. There 0:01:17.680 --> 0:01:21.000 were people there who were public servants who wanted to 0:01:21.080 --> 0:01:25.080 just fill portin rolls, people like Mattis, for example, and 0:01:25.120 --> 0:01:27.039 then there were other people who were like hangars on 0:01:27.760 --> 0:01:30.280 and in there running their own agenda. But it was 0:01:30.319 --> 0:01:34.120 a mixed bag, and I think from his view, I 0:01:34.200 --> 0:01:36.920 think he walked away from his first experience in the 0:01:36.920 --> 0:01:40.080 Oval Office feeling like not everybody was on board with 0:01:40.120 --> 0:01:43.160 his agenda. He wasn't sure everyone was loyal to him, 0:01:43.600 --> 0:01:46.039 and the thinking was coming into this round he would 0:01:46.040 --> 0:01:50.640 appoint more loyalists and people who were more deft at 0:01:50.640 --> 0:01:53.120 sort of manipulating the wheels of government in order to 0:01:53.120 --> 0:01:55.800 help him push his agenda through. And I think what 0:01:55.840 --> 0:01:58.840 you've found in this recent spurt of appointments is you 0:01:58.880 --> 0:02:01.680 certainly have loyalists, there's no doubt. But whether or not 0:02:01.720 --> 0:02:05.240 they're competent is another matter, and they're certainly controversial. Matt 0:02:05.280 --> 0:02:07.880 Gates is sort of front and center as an exhibit 0:02:07.960 --> 0:02:11.679 of he's been named Attorney General. He's someone who has 0:02:11.720 --> 0:02:14.680 been under investigation by the FBI and the DOJ for 0:02:14.760 --> 0:02:18.480 sex trafficking by the House Ethics Committee for a similar 0:02:18.560 --> 0:02:22.280 range of charges. He is the most unlikely person imaginable 0:02:22.280 --> 0:02:25.280 for a role like this. Republicans came out strongly against him. 0:02:25.400 --> 0:02:28.200 Susan Collins said she was shocked by it. He has 0:02:28.280 --> 0:02:30.600 to go through the vetting process with the Senate, so 0:02:30.639 --> 0:02:34.400 we may not make it through. But he's not necessarily 0:02:34.440 --> 0:02:36.920 someone you would put in the Justice Department because he 0:02:37.000 --> 0:02:41.720 is technically proficient, you know. On the other hand, Marco 0:02:41.800 --> 0:02:44.200 Rubio got appointed to be Secretary of State. He has 0:02:44.320 --> 0:02:48.680 very strong national security credentials, He's got a diplomatic experience. 0:02:49.040 --> 0:02:51.280 He is a serious person for a role like this. 0:02:51.919 --> 0:02:54.679 And so you know this array of people, you know, 0:02:54.760 --> 0:02:59.640 Christy Nomant Homeland Security, Tulsea Gabbard at DNI. Neither of 0:02:59.680 --> 0:03:03.040 them have any experience that would recommend them to those jobs, 0:03:03.080 --> 0:03:07.280 particularly management or subject expertise. But the common thread binding 0:03:07.320 --> 0:03:08.960 all of these people's loyalty to Trump. 0:03:09.680 --> 0:03:13.560 Now Congress of course is now Republican controlled, or will 0:03:13.600 --> 0:03:18.239 be under President Trump. Does anybody there can they still 0:03:18.280 --> 0:03:22.359 get through the process having Do they still face hurdles 0:03:22.440 --> 0:03:23.679 in the process? 0:03:24.120 --> 0:03:25.440 Yes, I think they do, and I think you know, 0:03:25.800 --> 0:03:29.639 the interesting sort of barometer of that was the battle 0:03:29.639 --> 0:03:32.040 to be Senate majority leader. There was a lot of 0:03:32.080 --> 0:03:34.960 push from the Maga wing of the party to have 0:03:35.040 --> 0:03:38.280 Rick Scott appointed his majority leader, and it ended up 0:03:38.320 --> 0:03:41.560 being John Thune, Senator John Thune, and I think he 0:03:41.640 --> 0:03:47.400 represents the wing of the Senate that prizes the institutional 0:03:47.440 --> 0:03:51.000 independence of the Senate and the role it plays as 0:03:51.040 --> 0:03:55.040 a as a check on presidential power. And there was 0:03:55.080 --> 0:03:57.680 a big push from Tucker Carlson in that wing of 0:03:57.680 --> 0:04:00.120 people you have to name Rick Scott the Senate, and 0:04:00.120 --> 0:04:02.400 it asserted itself. John Thune is in there. And I 0:04:02.440 --> 0:04:05.440 think some of the commentary you got from Republican members 0:04:05.480 --> 0:04:09.480 of the Senate yesterday about Matt Gates's appointment, you know, 0:04:09.520 --> 0:04:11.080 they all said he's still got to get through the 0:04:11.120 --> 0:04:13.640 nomination process, and so I do think you're going to 0:04:13.680 --> 0:04:14.280 see some of that. 0:04:14.600 --> 0:04:17.600 Tracy Alloway from Bloomberg News just mentioned from some of 0:04:17.600 --> 0:04:20.839 her sources that maybe one of the strategies of nominating 0:04:20.960 --> 0:04:23.120 Matt Gates is it will allow President look Trump to 0:04:23.160 --> 0:04:26.039 see who's with him and who's not with them in 0:04:26.080 --> 0:04:27.720 the Senate by just looking at the votes. 0:04:27.880 --> 0:04:30.120 It's gonna be pup public votes. That kind of makes 0:04:30.160 --> 0:04:30.719 some sense to me. 0:04:31.200 --> 0:04:33.679 It does, and he may get a lesson that even 0:04:33.760 --> 0:04:37.080 though he got elected president by a healthy margin, not 0:04:37.160 --> 0:04:39.840 everyone in his party is one hundred percent with him 0:04:39.839 --> 0:04:42.040 on his agenda, even within his own party. The other 0:04:42.080 --> 0:04:44.159 way to interpret what might be going on with Gates 0:04:44.440 --> 0:04:47.479 is Gates is just sort of a sacrificial lamb, and 0:04:47.560 --> 0:04:50.120 Trump will put him in there, it will soften the 0:04:50.160 --> 0:04:52.440 Senate up, and then he'll come back with someone else 0:04:52.440 --> 0:04:56.360 who maybe even more extreme or more capable, or whatever 0:04:56.400 --> 0:04:59.040 you want to define it, which is a comment has 0:04:59.080 --> 0:05:02.000 been a Supreme Court nominee strategy at different times in 0:05:02.040 --> 0:05:02.440 the past. 0:05:02.720 --> 0:05:04.240 There was a movie years ago, I don't know if 0:05:04.240 --> 0:05:08.000 you remember, with Albert Brooks Broadcast News, and there was 0:05:08.040 --> 0:05:10.560 a great scene in there where he's talking about his rival. 0:05:10.760 --> 0:05:13.960 I think he's the devil, not really, but you know, 0:05:14.120 --> 0:05:17.520 nobody's going to follow somebody with horns and goes. He says, 0:05:17.760 --> 0:05:21.080 just little by little, that person is somebody who is 0:05:21.120 --> 0:05:24.640 going to lower our standards. Where are our standards right 0:05:24.680 --> 0:05:27.600 now with these nominees. 0:05:28.320 --> 0:05:30.920 Well, they're Donald Trump's standards right now. And I think 0:05:31.040 --> 0:05:33.479 I think the moment that we're in now is where 0:05:33.640 --> 0:05:36.320 is that balance between the thing he wants as an 0:05:36.320 --> 0:05:39.760 individual and what our institutions and our laws and our 0:05:39.760 --> 0:05:43.680 democracy needs in a nonpartisan way to simply function in 0:05:43.720 --> 0:05:47.680 a healthy and constructive way. And I think it's really 0:05:47.920 --> 0:05:50.599 you know, the Republicans control Congress. Now, Trump has a 0:05:50.640 --> 0:05:53.039 tri fact that he has an unusual amount of power. 0:05:53.839 --> 0:05:53.919 And. 0:05:55.400 --> 0:05:57.080 I think it's really going to be on the members 0:05:57.080 --> 0:05:59.760 of his own party to check his behavior for the 0:05:59.760 --> 0:06:01.719 time being. If it goes beyond that, it may go 0:06:01.800 --> 0:06:04.920 to the courts. But right now it's really in Congress's hands, 0:06:05.000 --> 0:06:08.800 and we'll have to see. I'm you know, I don't 0:06:08.800 --> 0:06:10.320 have a crystal ball, so I'm not sure how that's 0:06:10.320 --> 0:06:11.680 going to play out. I do think there's going to 0:06:11.720 --> 0:06:14.640 be pushback against Gates, for example. I think there will 0:06:14.680 --> 0:06:17.039 be pushed back against Christino. I think they will be 0:06:17.040 --> 0:06:21.400 pushed back against Tulsey Gabbert, like she has no intelligence experience. 0:06:21.720 --> 0:06:25.120 She was a member of the Waiian National Guard. And 0:06:25.160 --> 0:06:27.599 you know, the thing to remember though, is Trump thinks 0:06:27.640 --> 0:06:31.200 cinematically about himself and he likes surrounding himself with people 0:06:31.320 --> 0:06:33.560 he as he's always said, look like they're out of 0:06:33.560 --> 0:06:35.960 central casting and they look like they play the part. 0:06:36.040 --> 0:06:39.240 Square chins, flowing locks. They look good on the poster. 0:06:39.600 --> 0:06:42.359 That doesn't necessarily mean they're good at management. As we 0:06:42.400 --> 0:06:44.680 all know from any organizations we've been in over the years, 0:06:45.000 --> 0:06:48.200 good looking people often that doesn't equate with great management 0:06:48.279 --> 0:06:49.120 or great expertise. 0:06:49.200 --> 0:06:51.560 We were talking about Elon must before, and I think 0:06:51.600 --> 0:06:55.520 you mentioned in your column is he getting too taking 0:06:55.560 --> 0:06:57.880 too much attention away from Donald Trump? And how's that 0:06:57.920 --> 0:06:58.560 going to play out? 0:06:58.720 --> 0:07:04.440 Well, that's a really interesting observation because it's injuring to 0:07:04.440 --> 0:07:07.719 watch jd Vance, I think, who has very much presented 0:07:07.800 --> 0:07:11.000 himself as the number two following mister Trump's lead. He 0:07:11.000 --> 0:07:14.320 phrases everything that way. Elon is a force of nature 0:07:14.560 --> 0:07:17.800 and and loves the spotlight as much as Trump does. 0:07:17.840 --> 0:07:21.680 And historically Trump doesn't share the spotlight very long with anyone. 0:07:21.720 --> 0:07:23.960 You may remember the first term, I don't know how 0:07:23.960 --> 0:07:26.040 many weeks, and I think it was weeks after Steve 0:07:26.120 --> 0:07:29.080 Bannon appeared on the cover of Time magazine, as you know, 0:07:29.160 --> 0:07:33.320 the sort of wise man puppeteer guiding Trump along, and boom, 0:07:33.920 --> 0:07:37.640 in short order, he was gone. You know, Trump understands 0:07:37.640 --> 0:07:40.200 the value of having Elon Musk the world's richest man 0:07:40.240 --> 0:07:44.240 with him. You know, that was a big factor I 0:07:44.280 --> 0:07:49.320 think in how his candidacy was perceived. You Knowltra ultra mail, 0:07:49.840 --> 0:07:54.080 ultra successful, ultra capable, and Trump likes to live in 0:07:54.080 --> 0:07:57.600 that glow. But the second people start saying that Elon 0:07:57.720 --> 0:08:00.920 Musk is telling Donald Trump what to do, Alon is 0:08:00.920 --> 0:08:02.760 probably have to pack up and go back to Austin. 0:08:03.760 --> 0:08:06.880 Is president? Like Trump? Is he a lane duck president today? 0:08:07.960 --> 0:08:09.520 Like that's like, why do you ask that? That's an 0:08:09.520 --> 0:08:11.600 interesting question, Like what suggests that to you? I mean, 0:08:11.920 --> 0:08:14.200 you know it's I would say no, but I don't. 0:08:14.200 --> 0:08:14.560 I don't know. 0:08:14.640 --> 0:08:16.560 I kind of feel like he can't run for another term. 0:08:16.880 --> 0:08:19.240 So I kind of feel like, unless he repeals the 0:08:19.280 --> 0:08:22.640 twenty second Amendment, well okay, and maybe you can factor 0:08:22.720 --> 0:08:22.920 that in. 0:08:23.240 --> 0:08:25.720 But if I'm a senator, I'm like, do I have 0:08:25.760 --> 0:08:28.040 to really worry about this guy? I know it's four years, 0:08:28.040 --> 0:08:29.600 but it's just four years. 0:08:29.720 --> 0:08:31.400 Yeah, I mean, I do think there's a strong faction 0:08:31.440 --> 0:08:35.079 in the Senate that's that are They are traditional conservative Republicans, 0:08:35.080 --> 0:08:38.640 they're not maga, and they're worried about the own future 0:08:38.640 --> 0:08:40.880 of the party. It's it's character, what it stands for, 0:08:41.320 --> 0:08:43.280 what kind of a force it is in US politics? 0:08:43.679 --> 0:08:46.200 And I think they see Trump as a useful blunt 0:08:46.240 --> 0:08:50.120 force to win an election, to dismantle parts of the 0:08:50.160 --> 0:08:56.000 administrative state, bring taxes down, uh, you know, revisit some 0:08:56.080 --> 0:09:01.880 other Republican policies that are familiar from years and while 0:09:01.880 --> 0:09:07.480 also dispensing with all of the cartoonish, buffoonish and dangerous things. 0:09:07.480 --> 0:09:11.040 Trump also likes to stick his feet in more often than. 0:09:10.960 --> 0:09:15.880 Not in the election, sort of the post mortem. One aspect, 0:09:16.160 --> 0:09:20.080 I was thinking, did people go into the polls and say, 0:09:20.600 --> 0:09:23.880 I can vote number one on the economy and number two, 0:09:25.440 --> 0:09:29.600 there's a state ballot initiative on reproductive rights, and I 0:09:29.600 --> 0:09:33.720 can vote on that. Separate, Keep those two things separate. 0:09:34.880 --> 0:09:36.880 Is that kind of what happened in some cases? 0:09:36.960 --> 0:09:40.319 Well, I certainly think that was truth. With white women. Yeah, 0:09:40.360 --> 0:09:42.600 you know, the three cohorts that you see in exit polls, 0:09:42.640 --> 0:09:44.000 and we got to wait for more data to come in. 0:09:44.040 --> 0:09:47.920 These are not highly exact, but I think I think 0:09:48.040 --> 0:09:50.640 I think he moved Trump moved up like four or 0:09:50.720 --> 0:09:54.160 five percentage points with white women between twenty sixteen and 0:09:54.760 --> 0:09:57.840 twenty twenty four. He moved up something like I think 0:09:58.080 --> 0:10:01.920 eight points with black men, and with Latino men it 0:10:01.960 --> 0:10:04.760 was more than twenty points, and with Latino women it 0:10:04.800 --> 0:10:10.360 was substantial. I think Latino men there's a huge Catholic 0:10:10.400 --> 0:10:15.360 cohort there. They are anti abortion. I think that informed 0:10:15.400 --> 0:10:18.160 their vote. I think you know what you're asking, Michael 0:10:18.160 --> 0:10:24.200 about the splitting the abortion ballot. I do think there 0:10:24.280 --> 0:10:26.280 was a number of women who were turned up by 0:10:26.280 --> 0:10:29.400 Trump's history as a sexual predator. He had been convicted 0:10:29.400 --> 0:10:32.840 of sexual assault, were found liabel for sexual assault, and 0:10:32.880 --> 0:10:36.079 it was anti abortion. But they felt they were traditional 0:10:36.120 --> 0:10:38.200 Republicans and they wanted to stay in the party, and 0:10:38.280 --> 0:10:40.640 ballot measures gave their ability to split their vote. 0:10:40.720 --> 0:10:43.959 YEP, fascinating, fascinating days we live in here again to 0:10:44.040 --> 0:10:47.599 President elect Trump nominating or putting up a lot of 0:10:47.640 --> 0:10:49.679 folks for to fill out his cabinets. So we'll see 0:10:49.679 --> 0:10:50.920 how that plays out over the next couple of days. 0:10:50.920 --> 0:10:53.440 Tim O'Brien's senior executive editor for Bloomberg Opinion. 0:10:54.960 --> 0:10:58.840 You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 0:10:58.920 --> 0:11:01.959 weekdays at ten am me staring on applecar Play and 0:11:01.960 --> 0:11:05.240 Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business. You can also listen 0:11:05.360 --> 0:11:08.480 live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, 0:11:08.840 --> 0:11:11.560 Just say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty. 0:11:12.640 --> 0:11:14.360 All right, we got John Tucker here in for Alex 0:11:14.360 --> 0:11:16.240 steel On. Paul Sweeney. You're live here in our Bloomberg 0:11:16.280 --> 0:11:19.360 Interactive Brokers studio. We're streaming live on YouTube as well. 0:11:20.520 --> 0:11:23.560 YouTube dot Com. Just search Bloomberg Podcast and that's where 0:11:23.559 --> 0:11:26.079 you'll find us. That's where the advertisers going. Advertisers are 0:11:26.080 --> 0:11:32.120 going to advertise. The digital media. Think Facebook, think, you know, Google, 0:11:32.720 --> 0:11:37.360 think even YouTube is huge business in terms of advertising spend. 0:11:38.240 --> 0:11:39.520 And we're there, which is good things. 0:11:39.520 --> 0:11:41.960 So let's just daring to know. What counts as innovation 0:11:42.160 --> 0:11:44.880 in the airs space these days is the short term 0:11:44.920 --> 0:11:47.599 videos that the videos that I see. 0:11:47.360 --> 0:11:50.000 I think that better targeting. That's kind of always the 0:11:50.040 --> 0:11:53.040 holy grail. So you want to be you want somebody 0:11:53.040 --> 0:11:56.280 advertising grills to a guy like you, right, you're the 0:11:56.280 --> 0:11:56.679 grill guy. 0:11:56.720 --> 0:12:00.839 And or videos where the most effect for me the 0:12:00.840 --> 0:12:04.079 things that I'm interested like woodworking, where it's a show 0:12:04.200 --> 0:12:07.480 and they're using a piece of equipment and giving it 0:12:07.559 --> 0:12:08.800 the run through, and I'm like. 0:12:08.800 --> 0:12:10.559 You know what, I gotta have that I gotta have that. 0:12:10.559 --> 0:12:11.280 That's how it works. 0:12:11.440 --> 0:12:15.280 Marked August, president and CEO of Mountain. He joins us 0:12:15.440 --> 0:12:18.680 from Miami via zoom thing. Hey, Mark, we actually had 0:12:19.080 --> 0:12:22.160 a really interesting data point on the global media, global 0:12:22.160 --> 0:12:28.080 advertising space today last night with Disney. Their streaming business 0:12:28.600 --> 0:12:31.000 is turning profitable and like really profitable. What do you 0:12:31.040 --> 0:12:32.559 take away from the Disney numbers. 0:12:33.080 --> 0:12:36.480 Well, I'm not surprised. I think what you're seeing happen 0:12:37.000 --> 0:12:40.520 is the second half of twenty twenty four and now 0:12:40.559 --> 0:12:44.600 going into twenty twenty five, essentially all of the streaming 0:12:44.679 --> 0:12:49.000 networks have reached the largely reached the tipping point of 0:12:49.040 --> 0:12:52.920 being like streaming first, Like that's where they're all a 0:12:53.080 --> 0:12:57.320 sales effort is focused, they're focused and advertising as you 0:12:57.360 --> 0:13:00.560 guys were mentioning the innovation and things like that, And 0:13:00.600 --> 0:13:04.240 I think Disney is right there at the you know, 0:13:04.440 --> 0:13:08.760 head of that pack, really focusing a business on streaming 0:13:08.800 --> 0:13:13.199 and advertisers are responding and basically the growth and profitability 0:13:13.200 --> 0:13:15.959 that's resulting from it is a direct result of that. 0:13:16.040 --> 0:13:18.319 So they're at the head of the pack right now 0:13:18.600 --> 0:13:20.000 in terms of that kind of growth. 0:13:20.200 --> 0:13:23.079 Mark, are they hanging on to linear TV? To satisfy 0:13:23.120 --> 0:13:24.800 old people like me. 0:13:25.960 --> 0:13:28.600 Yeah, I mean, obviously they still own the assets. But 0:13:28.800 --> 0:13:32.800 I every conversation I have with every streaming network, they 0:13:32.920 --> 0:13:35.200 just want to talk about streaming. I think they see 0:13:35.640 --> 0:13:38.640 linear is obviously it's a revenue stream for it, but 0:13:38.679 --> 0:13:41.960 it's not it's not the meetings they're having as to 0:13:42.040 --> 0:13:46.280 how do they better monetize linear. It's all about, you know, 0:13:46.480 --> 0:13:50.440 audience first, which you know, the what we're taking AI 0:13:50.720 --> 0:13:54.320 to help identify the right consumers and making all of 0:13:54.320 --> 0:13:56.880 that available to brands and doing it on the biggest screen, 0:13:56.920 --> 0:14:00.120 on fifty five in screen, sixty five in screen as 0:14:00.160 --> 0:14:02.200 opposed to a phone, which is like a five point 0:14:02.240 --> 0:14:02.920 five industry. 0:14:03.520 --> 0:14:04.120 You know, it's interesting. 0:14:04.160 --> 0:14:06.280 I was reading some research on the Walt Disney Company 0:14:06.320 --> 0:14:09.680 this morning from Lar Martinette Needham and Company. What she does, 0:14:10.120 --> 0:14:11.880 and she says, investors just think this way. It's just 0:14:11.960 --> 0:14:16.000 kind of mushed together the digital streaming UH business as 0:14:16.120 --> 0:14:18.320 with their linear And what's going to happen over time 0:14:18.400 --> 0:14:20.560 is the digital business is going become a bigger, bigger, 0:14:20.600 --> 0:14:24.920 bigger percentage of that you know, streaming of that business 0:14:25.200 --> 0:14:27.280 of the video business. And you can see the growth 0:14:27.360 --> 0:14:30.480 rates just accelerate over time as linear gets smaller and smaller. 0:14:30.840 --> 0:14:33.120 Who else out there, Mark, do you think is going 0:14:33.200 --> 0:14:35.360 to be a really viable player out there? I'm not 0:14:35.360 --> 0:14:38.280 sure everybody who's out there in the marketplace can survive here. 0:14:39.040 --> 0:14:40.240 How do you think it's going to shake out in 0:14:40.240 --> 0:14:40.920 the streaming wars? 0:14:41.640 --> 0:14:44.440 Yeah, I mean we've talked about this before. I mean 0:14:44.480 --> 0:14:48.960 it's really easy to figure out who's gonna survive and thrive, 0:14:49.400 --> 0:14:51.320 which is you just play a game where you know, 0:14:51.400 --> 0:14:54.480 one person names the network and another person tells you 0:14:54.520 --> 0:14:56.800 why they would go there and watch. So I say 0:14:57.000 --> 0:15:00.200 ESPN and you say sports. If I say Netflix, you 0:15:00.240 --> 0:15:04.640 would say, you know, comedy documentaries, new shows every Tuesday. 0:15:05.120 --> 0:15:08.040 If you know, if I say CBS, there's probably applause 0:15:08.120 --> 0:15:11.080 in the conversation. Doesn't mean CBS is going to go away, 0:15:11.400 --> 0:15:13.680 but it's certainly going to be more challenging for them 0:15:13.680 --> 0:15:16.920 and their number of networks like that. And so I mean, 0:15:17.120 --> 0:15:19.440 the people with a brand with a clear reason to 0:15:19.560 --> 0:15:22.480 want to go and watch content there and be entertained 0:15:22.520 --> 0:15:25.160 there are going to thrive, and the others are going 0:15:25.240 --> 0:15:29.800 to be challenged and probably ultimately become part of some 0:15:29.880 --> 0:15:32.320 of those other brands, and I think in terms of 0:15:32.360 --> 0:15:36.240 the advertise and extend the question there. I think Netflix 0:15:36.400 --> 0:15:39.280 is I don't think people fully realize how big a 0:15:39.320 --> 0:15:41.760 backlog they're building right now. So half of all new 0:15:41.800 --> 0:15:45.960 subs are for their cheapest package, which is ad supported, 0:15:46.320 --> 0:15:50.080 but in they're not really serving that many ads relative 0:15:50.160 --> 0:15:53.400 to the number of subscribers. So they're building a huge 0:15:53.480 --> 0:15:56.760 revenue backlog that's going to get unlocked as they get 0:15:56.960 --> 0:15:59.400 as good as everyone else and monetizing, and I think 0:15:59.440 --> 0:16:03.120 that's going to you know, like like I'm super long 0:16:03.160 --> 0:16:06.040 on Netflix right now, meaning like if there was any 0:16:06.080 --> 0:16:08.880 stock I would want to invest in, it would be Netflix. 0:16:08.920 --> 0:16:12.040 And I'm not that far behind on Disney, although you know, 0:16:12.080 --> 0:16:14.560 Disney has parks and other things that make it a 0:16:14.560 --> 0:16:16.520 bit harder to you know, bet on the future. 0:16:16.960 --> 0:16:19.040 Can you close out real quick? What is the state 0:16:19.040 --> 0:16:22.280 of the digital ad business right now for your perspective. 0:16:22.480 --> 0:16:26.160 Yeah, it's very healthy. I think overall the best part 0:16:26.280 --> 0:16:29.720 of digital advertising is the long tail, mid size and 0:16:29.800 --> 0:16:32.600 small companies that you know my own company, that's what 0:16:32.640 --> 0:16:36.080 we focus on is bringing long those small, mid sized 0:16:36.120 --> 0:16:40.480 advertisers into the streaming television world. Advertising for the first time, 0:16:40.560 --> 0:16:43.000 I think all these streaming networks have really woken up 0:16:43.040 --> 0:16:45.800 to how that's an opportunity. I always like to say, 0:16:45.840 --> 0:16:47.920 it's really easy. The two ways to grow a business. 0:16:47.960 --> 0:16:50.440 You can grow the number of customers or the revenue 0:16:50.480 --> 0:16:52.280 per customer, and the TV industry for a lot of 0:16:52.360 --> 0:16:54.920 years in neither of those things. And so now I 0:16:54.920 --> 0:16:57.640 think they're waking up. They've woken up to we need 0:16:57.680 --> 0:17:01.000 to grow the number of customers, and in streaming there 0:17:01.040 --> 0:17:03.440 actually are some ways to grow the revenue for customers. 0:17:03.440 --> 0:17:06.679 So that's why I think it's media world is actually 0:17:06.720 --> 0:17:08.880 getting reinvigorated with growth right now. 0:17:09.280 --> 0:17:11.359 Mark, thanks so much for joining us. Always appreciate getting 0:17:11.359 --> 0:17:13.040 a few minutes of your time. Mark Douglas, President and 0:17:13.080 --> 0:17:16.400 CEO of Mountain. He's based in California, but he's done 0:17:16.400 --> 0:17:18.760 in Miami. How come all the smart young folks are 0:17:18.760 --> 0:17:20.879 down in Miami, John and they're not in Sheboygan. 0:17:21.080 --> 0:17:23.840 They're in Miami. Either in LA and He'll. 0:17:23.640 --> 0:17:26.720 Be are stuck in a hermetically sealed both with each other. 0:17:26.720 --> 0:17:27.600 Exactly right. 0:17:27.840 --> 0:17:30.120 That's what the smart people do, Mike mclowan. They're all done. 0:17:30.160 --> 0:17:32.760 And I guess Florida that's where the smart kids are. John, 0:17:32.840 --> 0:17:34.840 thank you so much for sitting yesterday. 0:17:36.440 --> 0:17:40.320 You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 0:17:40.400 --> 0:17:43.159 weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple car Playing and 0:17:43.240 --> 0:17:46.160 Broun Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand 0:17:46.160 --> 0:17:50.520 wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 0:17:51.600 --> 0:17:53.720 John Tucker sitting in for Alex Steel on Paul Sweeney 0:17:53.760 --> 0:17:55.800 We live here on our Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio, or 0:17:55.840 --> 0:17:59.320 streaming live on YouTube as well. John Lisa was just 0:17:59.320 --> 0:18:02.080 talking about, you know, some technicals on yes ANDP five hundred, 0:18:02.119 --> 0:18:03.840 So I type in S and P five hundred, you know, 0:18:04.160 --> 0:18:07.480 SPX index, and then it hit our SI for relative 0:18:07.480 --> 0:18:09.320 Strength index, and it kind of says, you know, it 0:18:09.400 --> 0:18:11.600 got a nice little chart there, and it shows you, 0:18:11.600 --> 0:18:13.720 you know, when you're at an indext level of seventy, 0:18:13.840 --> 0:18:16.520 maybe it's a little overbought, and if it's down at thirty, 0:18:16.560 --> 0:18:18.679 maybe a little bit over sold. We're sitting here at 0:18:18.680 --> 0:18:21.240 sixty four point five and we bounced or it came 0:18:21.280 --> 0:18:23.359 off of that seventy level just a few days ago. 0:18:23.960 --> 0:18:26.080 So from a technical perspective, maybe a little bit in 0:18:26.080 --> 0:18:28.280 the short term, a little bit expensive. 0:18:27.960 --> 0:18:31.520 But also twenty three times projected earnings at this point. 0:18:31.680 --> 0:18:33.960 Maybe that's the photography sold out that Magne it was 0:18:34.000 --> 0:18:36.080 in seven it's only you know, eighteen times. 0:18:36.240 --> 0:18:38.520 So let's see what the professionals are doing there. 0:18:38.520 --> 0:18:41.399 Margie Pttel joins that she's the senior portfolio manager at 0:18:41.440 --> 0:18:45.479 All Spring Global Investments. She's up there in Boston. Margie, 0:18:45.520 --> 0:18:50.119 you woke up a week ago today a Republican in 0:18:50.160 --> 0:18:52.480 the White House, Republican in the Senate, and now we 0:18:52.560 --> 0:18:57.080 learned today Republican control of the house. Here, your folks 0:18:57.119 --> 0:18:59.440 at All Springs, you change your outlook at all for 0:19:00.200 --> 0:19:02.280 think about allocating capital? 0:19:03.800 --> 0:19:07.080 No, I think we're still looking for continued economic growth, 0:19:07.520 --> 0:19:09.840 maybe more modest, say one and a half to two 0:19:09.880 --> 0:19:12.760 and a half percent in real growth. And we'll have 0:19:12.840 --> 0:19:15.919 to see if any of these plans Republicans have announced, 0:19:16.640 --> 0:19:19.560 how soon they will actually be enacted, how much of 0:19:19.600 --> 0:19:22.040 a positive they'll go to the real economy. The market's 0:19:22.080 --> 0:19:23.879 like it so far, but we'll have to see. So 0:19:23.920 --> 0:19:28.080 we're leaking more towards modest growth, same themes as we've 0:19:28.080 --> 0:19:28.720 had all year. 0:19:29.440 --> 0:19:33.200 Well, stocks don't operate in a bubble. How closely should 0:19:33.240 --> 0:19:35.600 we follow what's happening in the bond market as we 0:19:35.640 --> 0:19:36.480 look at equities. 0:19:37.800 --> 0:19:42.159 Well, I think it's interesting because you've actually had the 0:19:42.400 --> 0:19:45.439 bond market, looking at treasuries actually move up. You know, 0:19:45.480 --> 0:19:47.520 the FED made a cut of fifty basis points in 0:19:47.600 --> 0:19:50.400 the funds er eate and instead of bringing yields down, 0:19:50.520 --> 0:19:52.600 we had the ten year treasury actually go up by 0:19:52.640 --> 0:19:55.480 six to five basis points. Today is even higher, say 0:19:55.520 --> 0:19:58.800 around four point four percent. But I think with inflation, 0:19:59.040 --> 0:20:01.520 say two and a half three percent, I don't think 0:20:01.560 --> 0:20:04.119 a four and a half is percent yield on treasuries 0:20:04.480 --> 0:20:07.760 is really enough to be a negative or slow down 0:20:07.800 --> 0:20:10.439 economic growth. I think it's really a neutral factor. And 0:20:10.520 --> 0:20:13.440 maybe it says more we have a huge supply of treasuries, 0:20:13.800 --> 0:20:17.119 and so that is really dragging down the relative relationships 0:20:17.160 --> 0:20:20.800 between say treasuries and stocks or high yield bonds or 0:20:20.800 --> 0:20:25.280 corporate bonds, making traderes look relatively cheap just because there's 0:20:25.280 --> 0:20:26.000 too much supply. 0:20:27.040 --> 0:20:29.560