WEBVTT - Solid Employment, Wage Growth Give Fed Green Light 0:00:01.360 --> 0:00:05.680 This is Bloomberg Business Wait inside from the reporters and 0:00:05.880 --> 0:00:09.440 editors who bring you America's most trusted business magazine, plus 0:00:09.520 --> 0:00:13.680 global business finance and tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week 0:00:13.720 --> 0:00:31.360 Podcast with Carol Messer and Tim Stenebeck from Bloomberg Radiog. 0:00:27.600 --> 0:00:28.080 The Bird. 0:00:31.000 --> 0:00:34.159 All right, everybody, we're going to stay with the jobs report. 0:00:34.560 --> 0:00:36.960 As we said, the number coming in certainly non farm 0:00:36.960 --> 0:00:42.640 payroll softer than forecast, the unemployment rate coming in as forecasts, 0:00:42.680 --> 0:00:44.680 but we did see an uptick when it comes to 0:00:45.080 --> 0:00:48.519 average hourly earnings and also average weekly hours work. So 0:00:48.600 --> 0:00:50.520 let's get to it and see what our round table 0:00:50.600 --> 0:00:53.760 has to say. Matt Elena Schaletiev a senior US economist 0:00:53.800 --> 0:00:56.639 at BNP Parrybach. She joins us in our Bloomberg Interactive 0:00:56.640 --> 0:01:00.600 Brokers studio along with our Steve Matthews, Economics reporter Bloomberg News. 0:01:00.640 --> 0:01:02.480 He's out there in Atlanta bureau, Steve. 0:01:02.680 --> 0:01:03.080 Elena. 0:01:03.120 --> 0:01:06.120 Happy Friday, Elena. Great to see you back here at 0:01:06.160 --> 0:01:09.240 Bloomberg headquarters. So talk to us about the report. Let's 0:01:09.280 --> 0:01:13.000 go through today before we start looking forward. How did 0:01:13.080 --> 0:01:15.440 you assess the numbers that we got today? 0:01:15.480 --> 0:01:19.200 Well, this was a classic example of don't change your 0:01:19.200 --> 0:01:22.800 podcast on ADP, right, so that that's the first thing 0:01:22.840 --> 0:01:27.600 that comes off, right, they were off They track, you know, 0:01:27.800 --> 0:01:32.039 things differently. But this report is telling us that things 0:01:32.040 --> 0:01:35.600 are slowing down, they continue to slow down, that nothing 0:01:35.760 --> 0:01:39.480 is urgent, recession is not imminent. But at the same time, 0:01:39.600 --> 0:01:42.440 there was signs of weakness in this report. And Matt, 0:01:42.440 --> 0:01:45.560 you listed a lot of good things. Let me tell you, like, 0:01:45.840 --> 0:01:48.560 there were a few weak things in there as well. 0:01:48.800 --> 0:01:50.200 So what was the weakest thing? 0:01:50.280 --> 0:01:52.360 I mean, if you look Carol's talking about temporary work, 0:01:52.360 --> 0:01:53.880 which I agree, if you look at that chart at 0:01:53.880 --> 0:01:56.040 snow Bueno, but what did you what did you focus? 0:01:56.120 --> 0:01:59.080 In addition to that, you should look at aggregatao's worked 0:01:59.360 --> 0:02:03.400 for the second quarter in aggregate, So if you look 0:02:03.440 --> 0:02:06.680 at that, you see that every getas worked only grew 0:02:06.960 --> 0:02:10.480 zero point one percent quorer on quarter seasonally adjusted annual rate. 0:02:10.560 --> 0:02:13.200 It's because everybody's using AI, we don't have to work 0:02:13.200 --> 0:02:14.520 as hard. That's disappointment. 0:02:14.720 --> 0:02:18.840 Yeah, that's that's a disappointment. That number is correlated really 0:02:18.880 --> 0:02:22.000 well with GDP growth, So that is telling us that 0:02:22.120 --> 0:02:24.680 economic growth is slowing down. So we're at one and 0:02:24.720 --> 0:02:29.160 a half percent in terms of GDP projections for Q two. 0:02:29.720 --> 0:02:32.560 We'll get the number pretty soon actually, and then you 0:02:32.600 --> 0:02:35.520 know what happens in the second quarter. We think that 0:02:35.560 --> 0:02:37.079 we're going to go into a downturn. 0:02:37.440 --> 0:02:39.560 And so when you think a second quarter growth is 0:02:39.600 --> 0:02:42.200 going to show one percent one and a half, which 0:02:42.320 --> 0:02:44.400 is kind of amazing because it doesn't that feels like 0:02:44.480 --> 0:02:47.920 nothing or sounds like nothing, but it doesn't feel like nothing, right, Not. 0:02:48.080 --> 0:02:49.880 One and a half percent is pretty good. I mean 0:02:50.000 --> 0:02:52.080 the first quarter was one point three percent until all 0:02:52.120 --> 0:02:52.760 of a sudden it. 0:02:52.760 --> 0:02:56.600 Was two right well, and especially it's an annualized number 0:02:56.600 --> 0:02:58.680 as well, So you just like divided. 0:02:58.280 --> 0:03:01.280 By Steve, jump in here and tell us what you 0:03:01.400 --> 0:03:04.160 read on this report is with regards to the Federal 0:03:04.200 --> 0:03:06.120 Reserve that you cover so closely. 0:03:06.600 --> 0:03:11.200 Well, the Feds will see this report as basically confirming 0:03:11.320 --> 0:03:14.320 their plans to hike in July. I mean, they had 0:03:14.360 --> 0:03:17.960 been pretty much set to hike. And there's nothing in 0:03:18.000 --> 0:03:20.720 this report that's going to change your mind that you have. 0:03:21.639 --> 0:03:24.520 You know, job there are, as you laya points out, 0:03:24.560 --> 0:03:28.600 there are some weaknesses in the report, but on balance, 0:03:29.360 --> 0:03:33.919 job creation is still running much higher than trend, much 0:03:33.960 --> 0:03:37.120 higher than the trend that they want to see. You 0:03:37.160 --> 0:03:40.800 see the unemployment rate going down, you see wages, average 0:03:40.840 --> 0:03:46.320 hourly earnings, you know, rising hours for this month rising. 0:03:46.800 --> 0:03:49.800 So it's like there are like lots of points where 0:03:50.120 --> 0:03:52.360 you know, the hawks can look at this and say, hey, 0:03:52.400 --> 0:03:56.040 this confirms our view of where the economy is. The 0:03:56.080 --> 0:04:00.680 goal of the Fed right now is to create trend 0:04:00.760 --> 0:04:05.080 growth and that would reduce pricing pressure, and they would 0:04:05.200 --> 0:04:08.640 like to see some small increase in the unemployment rate. 0:04:09.080 --> 0:04:13.320 That's not happening. This report is more consistent with very 0:04:13.440 --> 0:04:18.400 solid growth and a solid labor market. And so July, 0:04:18.800 --> 0:04:22.480 you know, absent there being some shock in the consumer 0:04:22.520 --> 0:04:25.000 price index next week, July is set that they're going 0:04:25.080 --> 0:04:29.520 to hike by a quarter quarter point. And the real 0:04:29.640 --> 0:04:33.320 question is what happens in September and November and December. 0:04:33.839 --> 0:04:36.000 And you know, there's a lot of interest among the 0:04:36.080 --> 0:04:39.920 FMC in hiking at least one more time beyond July. 0:04:40.400 --> 0:04:44.760 I totally agree with Steve that July is right there, 0:04:45.040 --> 0:04:49.320 there's no question about that, and average earlie earnings growth 0:04:49.400 --> 0:04:53.720 totally supports that. The question is about what happens next, 0:04:53.800 --> 0:04:58.560 And I think this Job's report alleviates some pressure that 0:04:58.640 --> 0:05:01.200 they need to absolutely they need to feel they need 0:05:01.240 --> 0:05:03.680 to go in September and or November. 0:05:03.800 --> 0:05:04.240 Is that? 0:05:04.640 --> 0:05:05.120 WHOA? 0:05:05.240 --> 0:05:06.600 So I think. 0:05:06.440 --> 0:05:09.200 Really they I think they will raise rates. 0:05:09.400 --> 0:05:13.000 No, no, no, they alleviate the pressure for them to 0:05:13.080 --> 0:05:15.320 do that. Okay, So I think that you know that 0:05:16.000 --> 0:05:18.800 July hike will be the last one. They will reach 0:05:18.880 --> 0:05:21.880 the terminal rate there and by the time we get 0:05:21.880 --> 0:05:25.080 to the September and November meeting there will there won't 0:05:25.080 --> 0:05:26.760 be any need to do more. 0:05:26.680 --> 0:05:28.719 Hikes, number of talks and pausing, they'll just be done. 0:05:28.920 --> 0:05:31.039 So one and done is You're done. 0:05:31.400 --> 0:05:35.000 That's our focus, Steve, in a market environment and a 0:05:35.040 --> 0:05:36.520 world where I feel like we've been all over the 0:05:36.560 --> 0:05:39.080 map already here in twenty twenty three in terms of 0:05:39.640 --> 0:05:41.080 interest rate expectations. 0:05:41.440 --> 0:05:44.920 You agree with you, Elena, I think that is a 0:05:45.120 --> 0:05:48.320 very reasonable take. And in fact that Eric Rosngren, the 0:05:48.360 --> 0:05:52.120 former head of the Boston FED, who is known as 0:05:52.120 --> 0:05:54.240 a hawk, when he was at the Boston Fed, which 0:05:54.320 --> 0:05:57.880 was only I guess two years ago, he was saying 0:05:57.960 --> 0:06:00.919 one and done. So it's like, you know, that's there 0:06:01.240 --> 0:06:03.760 is definitely a segment of the FED that will be 0:06:03.839 --> 0:06:07.000 on board with that, there are one or two people, 0:06:07.040 --> 0:06:09.760 including Raphael Bostic of the Atlanta FED, who say no 0:06:09.880 --> 0:06:15.480 more hikes. So you know, right now there are pieces 0:06:15.520 --> 0:06:18.000 of the data that you can look at and say, 0:06:18.400 --> 0:06:21.640 you know, the economy is resilient, it's strong, you know, 0:06:21.680 --> 0:06:24.800 you're still seeing a lot of momentum, and then there are, 0:06:24.839 --> 0:06:27.760 as Jolina points out, there are some areas of weakness. 0:06:28.200 --> 0:06:31.279 So you're going to see some splintering between the hawks 0:06:31.279 --> 0:06:34.560 and the doves. It's been amazing that Chair Powell has 0:06:34.600 --> 0:06:38.400 been able to pull off, you know, this big increase 0:06:38.480 --> 0:06:43.320 in rates without there being any descents in recent months, 0:06:43.760 --> 0:06:46.240 and you know you might start to see some splintering 0:06:46.320 --> 0:06:49.320 as you get near the end of this rate cycle. 0:06:49.440 --> 0:06:50.960 And we kind of saw that in the in the 0:06:51.000 --> 0:06:55.279 minutes a little bit, right, absolutely, So maybe. 0:06:54.880 --> 0:06:56.520 I think he's going to want to try and keep 0:06:57.279 --> 0:07:00.960 decisions unanimous, right, even if they don't agree up until 0:07:00.960 --> 0:07:03.159 the point that he convinces them to agree for the 0:07:03.200 --> 0:07:05.240 sake of unanimity, which seems like. 0:07:05.400 --> 0:07:07.039 We know there's crimps to me. 0:07:07.240 --> 0:07:11.400 But Ylene, let me ask you about the Economic Surprise Index, 0:07:11.440 --> 0:07:13.840 and we have obviously on the Bloomberg ECSU, but there 0:07:13.840 --> 0:07:17.240 are other economic surprise indexes, and they're all, you know, 0:07:17.680 --> 0:07:20.520 sky high. I mean, if you take out you know, 0:07:20.640 --> 0:07:22.920 the very beginning of the pandemic, when we just started 0:07:22.960 --> 0:07:26.200 dumping trillions of dollars out of helicopters. We haven't seen 0:07:26.240 --> 0:07:29.920 the economic surprise index this high since twenty seventeen. 0:07:30.880 --> 0:07:32.000 Is that going to turn around? 0:07:32.000 --> 0:07:32.160 Now? 0:07:32.240 --> 0:07:33.160 Is this the moment? 0:07:34.520 --> 0:07:37.320 I think we may be seeing the moment, especially in 0:07:37.360 --> 0:07:39.760 the labor market. I think there are a lot of 0:07:39.840 --> 0:07:43.400 questions about how the data are reported, like in terms 0:07:43.440 --> 0:07:46.400 of seasonality and everything. So one thing we haven't talked 0:07:46.400 --> 0:07:51.120 about is seasonality of payrolls. We have seen significant support 0:07:51.200 --> 0:07:53.800 from seasonal factors in the first half of the year, 0:07:54.120 --> 0:07:57.920 but by definition, if seasonality pushes it up, it should 0:07:57.920 --> 0:07:59.960 push it down in the second half of the year. 0:08:00.320 --> 0:08:04.720 And I think we saw turned intoday's data as the 0:08:04.800 --> 0:08:07.600 seasonal fact is starting to subject a little bit more. 0:08:08.080 --> 0:08:10.200 I think we will see more of that in July, 0:08:11.000 --> 0:08:13.200 in September, and I think we did see you turn 0:08:13.280 --> 0:08:14.000 in the labor market. 0:08:14.040 --> 0:08:16.080 All right, So let's move forward to next week and 0:08:16.120 --> 0:08:19.680 the CPI report. Steve, how important, I know, you know, 0:08:20.080 --> 0:08:22.520 I feel like every FED chief has their favorite Inflation 0:08:22.600 --> 0:08:26.680 Indicator CPI isn't necessarily it, but it's still an important one, right. 0:08:27.520 --> 0:08:31.080 CPI is very important. It's not the official target for 0:08:31.160 --> 0:08:35.000 the FED, but it comes before the PCE index and 0:08:35.080 --> 0:08:39.040 it's super super important. And what's going to be interesting 0:08:39.200 --> 0:08:43.440 next week is the overall the headline number is going 0:08:43.520 --> 0:08:45.920 to come down to maybe if you look at the 0:08:45.960 --> 0:08:51.600 Bloomberg consensus three point one percent. It could be some 0:08:51.840 --> 0:08:54.360 have it as low as three percent. These are the 0:08:54.440 --> 0:08:57.840 lowest numbers in more than two years. The Fed's going 0:08:57.880 --> 0:09:01.000 to be focused on core inflation, excluding food and energy, 0:09:01.600 --> 0:09:04.960 and that has been sticky. The FED has been very 0:09:05.000 --> 0:09:09.040 worried because core inflation has been very slow to come 0:09:09.080 --> 0:09:11.719 down in the first half of the year. So this 0:09:11.800 --> 0:09:13.800 is going to be key in terms of are they 0:09:13.920 --> 0:09:17.400 going to finally see some progress on core inflation. But 0:09:17.640 --> 0:09:22.240 for you know, for most Americans, the overall inflation is 0:09:22.280 --> 0:09:25.240 what matters. And if you get a number that's around 0:09:25.280 --> 0:09:29.960 three percent, that's getting really close to normal for most people. 0:09:30.160 --> 0:09:33.080 And it's like wage gains have been in the area 0:09:33.120 --> 0:09:35.840 of six percent if you look at the Atlanta Fed's 0:09:35.880 --> 0:09:40.280 wage tracker. So people are starting with gas prices coming 0:09:40.320 --> 0:09:43.000 down people are starting to get real wage gains, so 0:09:43.040 --> 0:09:45.439 it's like that should have some kind of impact on 0:09:46.280 --> 0:09:49.680 how people feel about you know, confidence has been really 0:09:49.720 --> 0:09:50.680 bad of late. 0:09:51.040 --> 0:09:53.800 And confidence is key, right, I mean, Yelena, how important 0:09:54.000 --> 0:10:00.480 is the consumer inflation expectation to what the Fed wants 0:10:00.520 --> 0:10:00.680 to do? 0:10:01.000 --> 0:10:01.200 Well? 0:10:01.200 --> 0:10:06.920 It's crucial. So and if the Fed seas inflation expectations 0:10:07.000 --> 0:10:08.640 being contained, that will just help. 0:10:08.720 --> 0:10:10.960 They were down when the U of M number came out, right. 0:10:12.760 --> 0:10:16.560 Yes, and gasoline prices could help if they go down 0:10:16.600 --> 0:10:19.840 a little bit from here. I think what we really 0:10:20.200 --> 0:10:23.600 the crucial point here is the label market. It's you 0:10:23.640 --> 0:10:26.120 know a little bit about inflation, a little bit about 0:10:26.160 --> 0:10:29.360 this and that, but what happens in the label market 0:10:29.480 --> 0:10:33.240 is crucial. You have to keep those you know. 0:10:33.360 --> 0:10:35.080 Dollars coming in you have a job. 0:10:35.240 --> 0:10:38.760 If you don't have a job, you know, that's it. 0:10:39.040 --> 0:10:42.640 You're not gonna continue spending. And things we will see 0:10:42.640 --> 0:10:43.679 will well, they will come. 0:10:43.840 --> 0:10:46.880 I can't get I mean, it can't get much better, right, 0:10:47.080 --> 0:10:48.840 so they can only get worse. But they have to 0:10:48.840 --> 0:10:50.960 get much worse to really make a difference. I mean, 0:10:51.000 --> 0:10:52.720 three point six percent on employment. 0:10:52.960 --> 0:10:54.760 I'm just gonna say, Barbie would already have it at 0:10:54.760 --> 0:10:55.640 two percent inflation. 0:10:56.120 --> 0:10:58.880 Yeah you think I don't know the Barbie story. 0:10:58.920 --> 0:11:02.360 But Steve Matthews, thank you, thank you. Have a great weekend. 0:11:02.440 --> 0:11:05.000 JOLNISCHELETTI have us so great to have you in studio again. 0:11:05.280 --> 0:11:06.439 This is Bloomberg Radio. 0:11:07.160 --> 0:11:10.720 You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us 0:11:10.760 --> 0:11:14.120 live weekday afternoons from three to six Eastern Listen on 0:11:14.160 --> 0:11:18.199 Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business App, 0:11:18.480 --> 0:11:20.200 or watch US live on YouTube. 0:11:21.320 --> 0:11:22.720 Right now that we want to stay with the US 0:11:22.800 --> 0:11:26.280 labor picture because the Temporary Helps Service. 0:11:26.040 --> 0:11:30.840 Payroll, well, yes, should I just round up what we 0:11:30.880 --> 0:11:33.000 saw in terms of the numbers today, because I think 0:11:33.000 --> 0:11:35.920 it was still a pretty amazing number. We had a 0:11:36.000 --> 0:11:38.320 change in non farm payrolls. It was a gain of 0:11:38.360 --> 0:11:41.120 two hundred and nine thousand, which normally you know, that's 0:11:41.160 --> 0:11:43.680 big game. We were looking for two hundred and thirty. 0:11:44.040 --> 0:11:48.400 That was the survey. And remember that we'd beaten in 0:11:48.440 --> 0:11:51.640 the last fourteen months. The number beat the survey, so 0:11:51.760 --> 0:11:54.880 obviously people continue to up their numbers for the survey, 0:11:55.559 --> 0:11:57.480 and now we finally missed. 0:11:57.200 --> 0:11:59.760 And the Temporary Help Service payroll though declined again. It 0:11:59.800 --> 0:12:02.560 is considered as a leading indicator for the unemployment rate. 0:12:02.640 --> 0:12:04.959 So let's get some thoughts on that, because with us. 0:12:05.000 --> 0:12:07.640 Back with us is Richard Walcust He's president CEO of 0:12:07.640 --> 0:12:12.680 American Staffing Association, a trade association representing the American staffing industry, 0:12:12.679 --> 0:12:16.840 and he jes us on zoom from Alexandria, Virginia. Richard, 0:12:16.880 --> 0:12:20.360 good to have you here with Matt and myself. So 0:12:21.400 --> 0:12:24.440 remind us of your members and then what you guys 0:12:24.440 --> 0:12:26.800 are seeing when it comes to the US labor market. 0:12:27.720 --> 0:12:31.040 Sure, hello Carol, Hello Matt. So our members are sourcing 0:12:31.120 --> 0:12:36.240 talent into every industry in the United States, including mgos, 0:12:36.360 --> 0:12:39.040 and a big piece of the business for the industry 0:12:39.120 --> 0:12:43.199 is in the government sector. The industry literally sources talent 0:12:43.280 --> 0:12:47.280 into every occupation in the United States. And you're exactly right, Carol, 0:12:48.040 --> 0:12:50.600 people take a look at our industry because we are 0:12:50.640 --> 0:12:53.960 a leading employment indicator, which is to say that traditionally, 0:12:54.200 --> 0:12:56.960 and of course every economic cycle is a little bit different, 0:12:57.000 --> 0:13:00.400 and this one's been very much different. But traditionally, temporary 0:13:00.400 --> 0:13:03.320 help is a leading indicator when when the economy is 0:13:03.360 --> 0:13:06.400 beginning to heat back up again and employer confidence is 0:13:06.440 --> 0:13:10.360 picking back up again. We're a leading indicator as we 0:13:10.400 --> 0:13:13.200 see economic uncertainty, and so what we've been seeing over 0:13:13.280 --> 0:13:16.000 the past several months, very typical of this kind of 0:13:16.040 --> 0:13:19.719 a segment in the economic cycle, is employers have been 0:13:19.760 --> 0:13:23.800 dialing back on their use of flexible talent as a 0:13:23.840 --> 0:13:26.520 first tier strategy. Is they're kind of taking a good 0:13:26.679 --> 0:13:29.840 hard look at what might be ahead. At the same time, 0:13:29.880 --> 0:13:32.480 we continue to hear reports that they are adding to 0:13:32.520 --> 0:13:36.679 their talent benches, and that reflects, I think confidence in 0:13:37.360 --> 0:13:40.960 what's ahead, whether we've got a bit of a soft landing, 0:13:41.480 --> 0:13:45.480 a short and shallow recession, they're confident. They want to 0:13:45.480 --> 0:13:46.840 hang onto the talent that they've. 0:13:46.679 --> 0:13:48.920 Got right, so they're pulling back. I'm a little confused 0:13:48.960 --> 0:13:50.559 they're holding on or they're pulling back. 0:13:51.280 --> 0:13:54.600 They're pulling back, so they're dialing back on that flexible 0:13:54.679 --> 0:13:58.560 outer ring of talent. So these are temporary and contract workers, 0:13:58.679 --> 0:14:01.400 and so they're they're dialing back on that. At the 0:14:01.400 --> 0:14:04.000 same time, we're talking to CEOs that say they still 0:14:04.040 --> 0:14:06.959 continue to get orders for full time talent. I think 0:14:07.000 --> 0:14:09.959 that the job numbers reflect the fact that we've got 0:14:10.040 --> 0:14:12.839 job openings in America. The Jolts numbers indicate we've got 0:14:12.880 --> 0:14:16.240 one point six job openings for every unemployed job seeker. 0:14:17.360 --> 0:14:20.480 But here's the other thing, Matt and Carroll. Not everyone 0:14:20.520 --> 0:14:22.800 that's seeking a job has got the skills that employers 0:14:22.840 --> 0:14:27.240 currently need. So I'm hearing from our members that the 0:14:27.240 --> 0:14:30.400 talent is still a scarce commodity in terms of certain 0:14:30.480 --> 0:14:32.080 skill sets in certain industries. 0:14:32.200 --> 0:14:34.600 Are you hearing that people are coming back in the 0:14:34.640 --> 0:14:37.160 labor force who had been sitting it out during the pandemic. 0:14:37.280 --> 0:14:41.800 Elena Shiliyev was just with us from BNP Perrybond. She 0:14:42.000 --> 0:14:45.480 was saying, you know, women especially are starting to come 0:14:45.520 --> 0:14:46.880 back into the labor force. 0:14:46.960 --> 0:14:47.160 Now. 0:14:48.160 --> 0:14:51.040 Women have actually been the winners Matt over the last 0:14:51.080 --> 0:14:54.480 couple of the BLS reports, we're seeing uptick in terms 0:14:54.520 --> 0:14:56.880 of number of women that are part of the labor force. 0:14:57.640 --> 0:15:00.520 Labor force participation rates are stagnant. I mean they haven't 0:15:00.520 --> 0:15:02.720 really moved much in the last several months, and they 0:15:02.760 --> 0:15:05.640 continue to be well below the levels that we saw 0:15:05.840 --> 0:15:09.000 pre pandemic, roughly running in the levels we saw in 0:15:09.000 --> 0:15:11.320 the nineteen seventies. In fact, matters a lot of people 0:15:11.360 --> 0:15:13.800 have left the labor force. If we were running the 0:15:13.840 --> 0:15:17.280 same labor force participation rate as we were pre pandemic, 0:15:17.560 --> 0:15:21.440 we'd have another two million workers in the labor force 0:15:21.920 --> 0:15:25.360 or actively seeking work. So, yes, women have been a 0:15:25.680 --> 0:15:30.560 winner here. Employment amongst the minorities, especially Black Americans is 0:15:30.600 --> 0:15:31.160 ticked down. 0:15:31.000 --> 0:15:31.440 A little bit. 0:15:31.680 --> 0:15:33.920 Well yeah, actually, you know, we had some stories that 0:15:35.120 --> 0:15:38.320 black workers accounting for ninety percent of the recent US 0:15:38.400 --> 0:15:41.760 unemployment jump. So you know, once again we're seeing as 0:15:41.760 --> 0:15:44.240 things maybe get changed a little bit, or we start 0:15:44.240 --> 0:15:48.800 to maybe potentially be at a transitional point, potentially maybe 0:15:48.800 --> 0:15:51.440 in the labor force that once again, you know, some 0:15:51.520 --> 0:15:54.560 of the minority groups being hit the hardest. So, Richard, 0:15:55.000 --> 0:15:56.880 the reason we like talking with folks like you is 0:15:56.880 --> 0:15:59.000 you have these industry members and so you get a 0:15:59.040 --> 0:16:02.840 good cross sampling of what's going on. So do your 0:16:02.920 --> 0:16:06.320 members talk a lot about recession? Just trying to figure 0:16:06.360 --> 0:16:08.840 out kind of where As we had a SoundBite from 0:16:08.840 --> 0:16:12.440 the head of Marathon Asset Management saying that you typically 0:16:12.440 --> 0:16:14.640 don't see the unemployment rate go up until after we 0:16:14.680 --> 0:16:18.000 are in a recession. So I'm just curious, are they 0:16:18.040 --> 0:16:22.680 talking about recession? Are they concerned about it? Just curious. 0:16:23.280 --> 0:16:26.480 So the level of concern always concerned about a downturn 0:16:26.520 --> 0:16:29.640 that turns into an absolute recession. But the level of 0:16:29.720 --> 0:16:32.080 confidence in the state of the economy has gone up, 0:16:32.120 --> 0:16:35.840 I think exponentially, Caroll, over the last eighteen months, people 0:16:35.880 --> 0:16:38.040 have been talking about that recession. It's going to happen 0:16:38.200 --> 0:16:41.000 six months from now, six months from now. But between 0:16:41.520 --> 0:16:46.280 labor markets and consumers spending stubbornly, pieces of the economy 0:16:46.360 --> 0:16:49.680 just aren't cooperating with some of the forecasts. Back to 0:16:49.680 --> 0:16:52.320 the labor of force participation rate, I think what's most 0:16:52.400 --> 0:16:56.320 encouraging is that in the twenty five to fifty four 0:16:56.400 --> 0:17:00.440 year old segment considered to be prime workers, that labor 0:17:00.440 --> 0:17:04.280 force participation rate has actually gone up. But around the 0:17:04.280 --> 0:17:08.400 people that are on the sidelines, younger workers and older workers. 0:17:08.560 --> 0:17:10.560 Way too many of them on the sidelines, and I 0:17:10.560 --> 0:17:12.760 think that should be a priority for both the public 0:17:12.800 --> 0:17:15.639 sector and the private sector to find ways to bring 0:17:15.680 --> 0:17:19.399 these folks back. In regarding minority employees, well. 0:17:18.640 --> 0:17:21.720 We had a great piece on the Bloomberg yesterday, the 0:17:21.720 --> 0:17:24.040 Bloomberg Big Take, I believe it was, and it was 0:17:24.080 --> 0:17:26.439 just talking about all the factories that are being built 0:17:26.480 --> 0:17:30.439 in the United States, but that the technical skills you 0:17:30.480 --> 0:17:32.400 know that there are workers that you know that they're 0:17:32.400 --> 0:17:34.199 going to be needed in those factories, but they're not 0:17:34.240 --> 0:17:36.840 going to have the technical skills to take on those jobs. 0:17:36.880 --> 0:17:39.280 And I'm just is that part of what you guys 0:17:39.320 --> 0:17:40.080 are working on. 0:17:40.160 --> 0:17:44.919 Or absolutely a very big way. So the upskilling and 0:17:44.920 --> 0:17:48.520 the reskilling the retraining of America has become a priority 0:17:48.560 --> 0:17:52.240 in most sectors, and our industry is working both with 0:17:52.280 --> 0:17:56.520 the clients and with government to find ways to make 0:17:56.560 --> 0:17:59.159 it really a reality. We've given lip service to lifelong 0:17:59.240 --> 0:18:01.280 learning for as long as we've been part of the 0:18:01.359 --> 0:18:03.920 labor for us, but we have never seen so many 0:18:04.040 --> 0:18:07.560 changes within occupations. And the big change is now that 0:18:07.600 --> 0:18:11.280 employers are really focusing on skills, not so much job descriptions, 0:18:11.359 --> 0:18:14.399 not so much degrees that have long been associated with 0:18:14.760 --> 0:18:18.199 kind of entry level requirements to get a foot in 0:18:18.240 --> 0:18:21.600 the door, really focusing on skills and within the skill sets, 0:18:21.640 --> 0:18:23.760 then going in and saying, look, we're going to have 0:18:23.760 --> 0:18:26.560 to do some upscilling here. In terms of the impact 0:18:26.600 --> 0:18:29.919 that technology is having on now we believe, you know, 0:18:29.960 --> 0:18:32.760 some thirty five percent of jobs, It's going to impact 0:18:32.800 --> 0:18:35.160 some sixty five percent of jobs over the next few 0:18:35.200 --> 0:18:38.480 years and it's got to be an absolute priority, all right. 0:18:38.520 --> 0:18:39.879 Could I leave it on that note, Richard, have a 0:18:39.880 --> 0:18:42.120 good week. And Richard Walquist he is President and chief 0:18:42.119 --> 0:18:46.679 executive officer of American Staffing Association on zoom in Virginia. 0:18:47.880 --> 0:18:50.000 You know, Matt, you know, we'll see what happens. I 0:18:50.000 --> 0:18:52.320 feel like, you know, companies have been afraid to let 0:18:52.359 --> 0:18:54.800 go of workers, right, We've talked about worker hoarding and 0:18:54.840 --> 0:18:56.399 so and so overk because they're wried about being able to 0:18:56.400 --> 0:18:58.800 replace those workers. But we'll see. Thinks you to slow down. 0:18:58.960 --> 0:19:03.000 Well, the interesting thing I think is hours worked, as 0:19:03.080 --> 0:19:05.199 Julena Shuley gave it pointed out. Once she did, I 0:19:05.240 --> 0:19:07.439 started digging a little bit deeper into it. It just 0:19:07.600 --> 0:19:11.240 haven't hasn't expanded in the second quarter. And I made 0:19:11.240 --> 0:19:13.639 a little bit of a joke about AI kind of 0:19:13.680 --> 0:19:16.320 taking some of the productivity away. But that's what you're 0:19:16.359 --> 0:19:19.800 going to start seeing in yea probably the not too 0:19:19.840 --> 0:19:21.560 distant future. You know. 0:19:21.640 --> 0:19:23.679 I'm also thinking about I was at a store yesterday 0:19:23.720 --> 0:19:26.760 here in New York City and I checked myself out 0:19:26.800 --> 0:19:29.520 and it was a clothing retailer that I've never done 0:19:29.560 --> 0:19:32.399 that before. But it's just I think you have more 0:19:32.400 --> 0:19:34.399 and more places that just can't find workers, and so 0:19:34.480 --> 0:19:35.960 they're automating. 0:19:35.400 --> 0:19:37.520 Stuff right where they want to do it that way, right. 0:19:37.520 --> 0:19:39.480 Yeah, or they want to do it that way exactly. 0:19:39.560 --> 0:19:40.840 And I thought that was pretty wild. 0:19:40.960 --> 0:19:43.400 That is what the clothing store. 0:19:43.400 --> 0:19:44.160 I'm not going to tell you. 0:19:44.200 --> 0:19:48.200 Oh come on, I'm not going to tell you. All right, well, 0:19:48.400 --> 0:19:49.000 maybe you'll tell you. 0:19:49.320 --> 0:19:51.080 But I actually had to take off the security sense 0:19:51.200 --> 0:19:52.040 like it was crazy. 0:19:52.119 --> 0:19:52.960 That's nuts. 0:19:54.000 --> 0:19:57.560 You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us 0:19:57.600 --> 0:20:01.560 live weekday afternoons from three to sixty on Bloomberg Radio, 0:20:01.800 --> 0:20:05.080 the Bloomberg Business App, and YouTube. You can also listen 0:20:05.200 --> 0:20:08.280 live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, 0:20:08.760 --> 0:20:11.520 Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 0:20:13.440 --> 0:20:16.240 All right, well today, JP Morgan out doubting that a 0:20:16.359 --> 0:20:19.280 US bitcoin ETF would be a game changer, Matt. They 0:20:19.320 --> 0:20:21.639 noted that such funds have existed in Canada and Europe 0:20:21.640 --> 0:20:25.080 for years already, and that bitcoin funds overall have attracted 0:20:25.480 --> 0:20:27.160 little investor interest. 0:20:27.720 --> 0:20:31.639 And yet, yes, well you know what, there were a 0:20:31.680 --> 0:20:35.320 ton of inflows to crypto ETFs last month, over five 0:20:35.400 --> 0:20:38.600 hundred million dollars which doesn't sound like that much, granted, 0:20:39.160 --> 0:20:42.960 but there were outflows in the year before that, so 0:20:43.560 --> 0:20:47.800 it's turned around, even if it's not a titanic size yet. 0:20:47.840 --> 0:20:50.119