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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast Action.

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Speaker 2: All Right, here we go.

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Speaker 3: Throwing in so speak, we're saying it's a cash touch

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Speaker 3: that we see most gamble is when they go to gamble,

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Speaker 3: they go to win.

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Speaker 2: That's incredible.

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Speaker 3: Being bank small banks, I like to make money.

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Speaker 2: All right, this is the ultimate combine if you want to.

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Speaker 3: And we are underway. Hello everybody, Welcome to the Action

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Speaker 3: Network Podcast presented by DraftKings. I am your host, Evan Abrams,

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Speaker 3: and I'm joined by Brandon Anderson for our NFL recap show.

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Speaker 3: We will discuss everything we saw today and look ahead

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Speaker 3: briefly to Monday night's game. Plus I'm just gonna say this,

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Speaker 3: throughout today's show, we will definitely sprink in some Thanksgiving fun.

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Speaker 3: I've finished my article already, Brandon's already looked into the

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Speaker 3: slate obviously three game on Thanksgiving one on Black Friday,

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Speaker 3: so we will kind of sprinkle that throughout the show.

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Speaker 3: But we also get to Brandon's hot reed for next

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Speaker 3: week at the end. But before we get started, I'm

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Speaker 3: just gonna literally give one trend today at the top

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Speaker 3: so we can kind of get into this. But this

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Speaker 3: will have a lot of conversation. I've already gotten a

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Speaker 3: few DMS on it, and I have purposely not responded

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Speaker 3: to those just because I can just say it here.

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Speaker 3: So the Chiefs went to overtime, the Lions went to overtime.

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Speaker 3: Both play on Thursday this week. Has been a topic

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Speaker 3: before it happened to the Raiders a few weeks ago

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Speaker 3: against the Broncos. But teams on short rest off overtime

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Speaker 3: when their opponent is not twenty six and forty eight

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Speaker 3: straight up twenty four to forty seven and three against

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Speaker 3: spread last twenty years fill on the cover by about

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Speaker 3: four points per game when that team is on the road,

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Speaker 3: like Kansas City is this week in Dallas on Thanksgiving

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Speaker 3: nine and twenty eight straight up eleven twenty five and

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Speaker 3: one against the spread. And then the big situation where

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Speaker 3: it's just if the team is on a Thursday, which

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Speaker 3: all these teams are six and twenty one straight up

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Speaker 3: five and twenty two against the spread. The thing that

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Speaker 3: is funny. So the Raiders lost that game in Denver,

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Speaker 3: but did cover with the big number, and the last

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Speaker 3: team to do that last year, the Bears also covers.

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Speaker 3: You have two covers in the row on that five

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Speaker 3: and twenty two number. The thing You can also bring

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Speaker 3: up in this situation two more angles, which would be

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Speaker 3: the Lions are playing at one pm Eastern on Thursday.

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Speaker 3: Usually this situation is Sunday night football, so I mean

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Speaker 3: on Thursday night football, so really even less rest in

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Speaker 3: that situation. And then if you look at the box score,

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Speaker 3: the Chiefs offense on the play on the field for

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Speaker 3: I believe ninety one plays in that game today, which

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Speaker 3: is absolutely crazy and obviously short turnaround there only the

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Speaker 3: twenty twelve Texans had to do that with ninety plus

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Speaker 3: plays off ot obviously a lot of time on the field,

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Speaker 3: so figure that would be fun to just get out

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Speaker 3: of the way there. Favorites seven to zero straight up

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Speaker 3: and one against the spread in that early window. Things

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Speaker 3: kind of shaped a little bit after that. But Brandon,

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Speaker 3: what do you see from today before we get into

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Speaker 3: the night game.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, those Thursday trends are interesting because we'll get into

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Speaker 2: the Thanksgiving trends a bit tonight and certainly on our

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Speaker 2: next show, which drops early this week, for the holiday

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Speaker 2: Thanksgiving favorites, that's what we want it back, right, Thanksgiving

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Speaker 2: favorites all the way, as long as it's not the Cowboys,

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Speaker 2: anybody else that's what you want.

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Speaker 3: And there it is.

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Speaker 2: Lions and Chiefs. They're the favorites, they're the bats. I

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Speaker 2: had circled and we already took Chiefs on the look

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Speaker 2: ahead for next Thursday as well for Thanksgiving. So yeah,

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Speaker 2: I was gonna bring up the stat that you said,

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Speaker 2: ninety one plays offensively for the Chiefs fifty defensively. To me,

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Speaker 2: that makes me much less worried about that trend. Specifically

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Speaker 2: for the Chiefs. I'm fine with my offense on the field.

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Speaker 2: It's the defense I don't want getting worn out, and

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Speaker 2: that defense didn't get worn out that We'll get to

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Speaker 2: that game in a bit, but the Chiefs really dominated

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Speaker 2: that game. Lions and Giants. That one's a little bit

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Speaker 2: more worrying because Jamis has thrown the ball all over

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Speaker 2: that game, so that is going to be tricky and

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Speaker 2: definitely kind of complicates things Thursday. You know, depending on

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Speaker 2: the year, we don't always get great exciting Thanksgiving games,

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Speaker 2: you know, but all three games look pretty interesting this year,

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Speaker 2: so it should be a good day of football to come,

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Speaker 2: and a pretty good day of football today. We had

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Speaker 2: some good games early. We had overtimes throughout, you know,

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Speaker 2: kind of ended with the thud, but I guess we

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Speaker 2: can start there.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, kind of gotta, but we'll make it quick. So

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Speaker 3: the Rams win the game thirty forty seven. Rams actually

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Speaker 3: close minus seven and a half, which I was surprised

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Speaker 3: when I looked. They covered that obviously with these total

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Speaker 3: goes under fifty, because well, Tampa Bay couldn't score points

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Speaker 3: after and even I guess before Baker Mayfield gets injured,

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Speaker 3: which is probably the story of the game, because the Rams,

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Speaker 3: again week to week win or lose, always just seem

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Speaker 3: absolutely cool, like they're just they're good on both sides

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Speaker 3: of the ball, rare make mistakes, So I guess off

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Speaker 3: the top here, it's a Matthew Stafford, who is now

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Speaker 3: about minus two twenty to win the NFL MVP at

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Speaker 3: odds on favorite. He has thirty touchdowns and two picks

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Speaker 3: this year, which the only player to ever do that

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Speaker 3: through eleven games was Mahomes in twenty twenty, who seems

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Speaker 3: to just be mirroring seasons with Stafford at this point,

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Speaker 3: which would be decent news for him, but thirty touchdowns,

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Speaker 3: two picks ridiculous. And then on the other side, the

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Speaker 3: Baker injury. I'll just say this Arizona, next at home

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Speaker 3: New Orleans, next at home Atlanta Thursday night football. So

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Speaker 3: those are three games, all at home. We'll see what

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Speaker 3: the injury looks like for Baker. I believe it was

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Speaker 3: his off shoulder, but still in a slang, not great.

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Speaker 3: What do you make from tonight?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, the shoulder injury, that's the same shoulder Baker had

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Speaker 2: surgery on basically to end his career in Cleveland before

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Speaker 2: this whole thing starting out bouncing around through all the teams.

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Speaker 2: So certainly not necessarily saying that that's the same injury.

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Speaker 2: That's just the same shoulder that he had the issue.

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Speaker 2: So I think it's better that than the throwing shoulder.

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Speaker 2: But weird injury, like why are you even out there

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Speaker 2: throwing a hail Mary? Like you're not throwing it seventy

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Speaker 2: five yards into the end zone on that one it

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Speaker 2: ended up way short, and I don't know, just strange injury. Godwin.

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Speaker 2: I think last year his injury came kind of in

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Speaker 2: somewhat garbage time as well, where just I'm not really

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Speaker 2: sure what the Bucks are doing with some of these decisions,

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Speaker 2: But you hope that it's not something more as good

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Speaker 2: as the Bucks have been this season six and a five.

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Speaker 2: Now they're in a dead heat with the Panthers, who

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Speaker 2: will get to our Monday Night preview later. The Panthers

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Speaker 2: are playing for the division lead. Now here's the Bucks

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Speaker 2: schedule the rest of the way Cardinals, Saints, Falcons, Panthers, Dolphins, Panthers.

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Speaker 2: So if Baker's healthy and as Godwin's back now supposedly

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Speaker 2: Bucky irvingssociate back next week, they're sizeable favorites in all

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Speaker 2: six of those games. I think maybe not in Carolina,

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Speaker 2: depending on how long before we get there. I have

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Speaker 2: to think the Bucks are pretty sizeable favorites still in

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Speaker 2: the Division two. But if Baker's out, if we get

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Speaker 2: Teddy for I don't know, if you're out with a

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Speaker 2: shoulder injury, not probably a week usually that's gonna be

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Speaker 2: a little longer. Then suddenly we get some real concerns there.

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Speaker 3: Because Brandon, do you see there's a lineup? I didn't see.

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Speaker 3: There's a few books, but there is a lot of

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Speaker 3: book right now with the lineup? Do you want to

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Speaker 3: guess what they're actually allowing us to bet at the

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Speaker 3: moment with the obviously complete question mark right now, because

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Speaker 3: we don't know the status of Baker.

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Speaker 2: It's always it Bucks home against Cardinals next week, is

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Speaker 2: that right?

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Speaker 3: Yeah? But they have I'm saying they have a lineup

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Speaker 3: for the division.

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Speaker 2: Oh okay, what do you think?

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Speaker 3: What do you think the line is right now?

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Speaker 2: Let's go minus one seventy bucks.

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Speaker 3: You might have to log onto a few sites. It

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Speaker 3: is minus three forty bucks right now with the Bather's

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Speaker 3: sitting at three to one. So I mean, you know,

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Speaker 3: seven and a half point underdogs tomorrow night in San Francisco,

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Speaker 3: and that means something. But you still have two games

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Speaker 3: against the Bucks upcoming. A lot of question marks, but

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Speaker 3: interesting price. I kind of thought it would be tighter

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Speaker 3: as well, but that is a price that's currently sitting

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Speaker 3: on the board. I'm sure things will differ on Monday

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Speaker 3: when we get more news, but I mean, other than that,

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Speaker 3: I'm not sure what else you take from this. I

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Speaker 3: think the interesting thing Rams play at Carolina next week.

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Speaker 3: Last time I looked that line sitting decently high, which

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Speaker 3: I thought was kind of fun. It was nine and

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Speaker 3: a half right now at Carolina. Interesting if Carolina, you know,

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Speaker 3: I kind of like them Tomorrow night against San Francisco,

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Speaker 3: which we'll talk about later, but if they won that game,

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Speaker 3: that price would be a little bit lighter. But at

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Speaker 3: this point, who the heck who's fighting with the Rams

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Speaker 3: at this point? Honestly?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean Stafford looked like the MVP tonight, so

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Speaker 2: it's no surprise that his odds have moved that way.

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Speaker 2: Just to comment on that, so I know some of

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Speaker 2: our viewers listeners are sitting on Stafford fifty to one.

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Speaker 2: That was an article that I had over the summer,

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Speaker 2: and I'll be totally honest didn't love at the start

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Speaker 2: of the season, like out have probably been happy to

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Speaker 2: cash out and go on with life. But ticket made

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Speaker 2: already and now it's come looking pretty good right now.

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Speaker 2: So the question is, I've gotten some dms on this,

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Speaker 2: what do we do with the ticket now? Is it

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Speaker 2: time to hedge? Well, it wasn't time to hedge before

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Speaker 2: because there are too many people to fighting for it.

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Speaker 2: But now we're starting to narrow the field a little bit,

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Speaker 2: like Justin Herbert with the line issues Josh Allen rough

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Speaker 2: game on Thursday, and the Bill's starting to fall back

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Speaker 2: to the pack a little bit. Mahomes, I don't know

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Speaker 2: that that seems super believable. At this point, guys aren't

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Speaker 2: necessarily out. But importantly, the more Stafford becomes the favorite,

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Speaker 2: the more opportunity you have to hedge. Now, if you

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Speaker 2: want to hedge with Drake May, you're getting an actually

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Speaker 2: pretty solid number now where you never were able to

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Speaker 2: do that before tonight, while May has been in kind

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Speaker 2: of a front runner, so I'm still Look, it's a

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Speaker 2: long ways to go, and Stafford is not brock Perty

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Speaker 2: or some of the favorites that we've had where one

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Speaker 2: bad game is just gonna end it for him. You know,

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Speaker 2: Stafford has a lot more credibility than that. But it's

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Speaker 2: early to hedge. It's just in the range now where

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Speaker 2: you can start paying attention and as you get down

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Speaker 2: to like, okay, it's got to be him or one

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Speaker 2: of these two other guys now, you know, then at

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Speaker 2: that point you can start to fill out your position

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Speaker 2: a little bit more. But look, you're on a fifty

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Speaker 2: to one ticket. It was a long shot for a reason.

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Speaker 2: Keep riding it. You're feeling pretty good right now and

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Speaker 2: hopefully things keep going well. And I was holding my

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Speaker 2: breath the whole second half, just like while you're out there,

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Speaker 2: Stafford put Jimmy in like I don't need to get

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Speaker 2: another shoulder injury or something with this game like this,

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Speaker 2: the second half was nothing. In this game, Rams go touchdown, touchdown,

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Speaker 2: touchdown to open the game, and in between Kobe Bryant

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Speaker 2: gets a pick six, just rips the ball away from

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Speaker 2: Kate Otten and just goes down the sideline and that's it.

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Speaker 2: Like the game is over instantly halfway through the second quarter.

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Speaker 2: Not much more to say. Rams nine and two would

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Speaker 2: be the the They are the one seed right now,

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Speaker 2: they'd because hosting to the one seed if not for

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Speaker 2: that Eagles block field glow, remember the one that like

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Speaker 2: screwed up the Ats game. And so Rams finish out Panthers,

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Speaker 2: like you said, then Cardinals. Then they have a five

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Speaker 2: day stretch. This is it for the Rams for the

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Speaker 2: one seed. Lions then Thursday night in Seattle, so that's

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Speaker 2: gonna be the key stretch right in the middle of December,

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Speaker 2: and then they go Falcons and Cardinals to close. So

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Speaker 2: if they can get honestly, probably either one of those

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Speaker 2: Lions or Seahawks games, they're probably the one seed. Though

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Speaker 2: they do lose the tide to Philly, who's now a

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Speaker 2: game back because of that game. But if they get

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Speaker 2: both of those, obviously they should be flying. So yeah,

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Speaker 2: Rams right now have to be the NFC favorite. They

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Speaker 2: look great. Stafford definitely the right MVP favorite, and yeah,

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Speaker 2: I mean, look, the Bucks are a pretty solid team.

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Speaker 2: We said going in this could be a playoff preview,

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Speaker 2: even a second round preview, and then the Rams ended

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Speaker 2: the game by like twenty minutes in, so that's how

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Speaker 2: good they're playing right now. And a last night, I

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Speaker 2: may have to retire from betting Terrence ferguson props for

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Speaker 2: a while now reapt on one target, so we might

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Speaker 2: have to let the guy prove himself a little bit

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Speaker 2: before we play again.

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Speaker 3: I just think it's like Steelers tight end syndrome as well.

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Speaker 3: It's like there's too many guys. I don't know who

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Speaker 3: he's going to go to. Everyone's doing just fine and

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Speaker 3: it's difficult to try to pick it out. Just to

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Speaker 3: round out the MVP markets of Stafford, I see minus

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Speaker 3: two twenty, Drake May plus two twenty, then everything else,

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Speaker 3: Jonathan Taylor twenty to one, Mahomes twenty to one, Josh

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Speaker 3: Allen twenty to one, and then the two ones I'll

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Speaker 3: add Jalen Hurts at forty to one, and then there

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Speaker 3: lies Jackson Smith Nijigba sitting at forty to one right now,

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Speaker 3: which is all I'll say is this. He has better

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Speaker 3: odds to an MVP than Sam Darnold. So the world

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Speaker 3: has corrected itself. All right, Let's let's keep rolling here,

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Speaker 3: Let's talk Colt's chiefs. So Casey wins the game twenty

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Speaker 3: three to twenty. Indy covers the plus four and a

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Speaker 3: half on the close total goes under fifty injuries off

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Speaker 3: the top, which I'll do with each of these games,

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Speaker 3: trace Smith injury ankle. It is definitely something to watch

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Speaker 3: for for Kansas City. Obviously, injuries like that not good

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Speaker 3: for the offense. Listen, the Colts jumped down to a

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Speaker 3: fourteen three lead one Gift drive the interception from Mahomes

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Speaker 3: at the beginning of the game. Basically you turn around

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Speaker 3: and you say to yourself, well it's going to happen again,

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Speaker 3: and then you had a real nice Daniel Jones drive.

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Speaker 3: If Casey just came back from there alone from a

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Speaker 3: fourteen three lead, you would have been like okay. But

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Speaker 3: Indy then leads again twenty to nine at the start

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Speaker 3: of the fourth quarter. The biggest issue with those final

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Speaker 3: drives for Indy. They really should be studied by teams

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Speaker 3: down the stretch four straight punts, four straight three and outs,

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Speaker 3: not just four to three punts, four three three and outs.

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Speaker 3: They combined to go for thirteen yards in those four drives.

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Speaker 3: So I mean, I have a few things to go

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Speaker 3: over here, some fun stats, but like, what do you

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Speaker 3: overall take from this game when Kansas City for fe

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Speaker 3: like they stole one.

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Speaker 2: It feels like they stole one because of how the

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Speaker 2: ending went. But then if you just zoom out and

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Speaker 2: look at the stats on the page, four hundred and

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Speaker 2: ninety four yards for the Chiefs only two fifty five

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Speaker 2: like nearly double them up. Thirty three first downs to

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Speaker 2: ten for the Chiefs. Yeah, we mentioned already forty one

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Speaker 2: more plays on the field, So the Chiefs go one

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Speaker 2: in one of six in the red zone. So it

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Speaker 2: feels like the Chiefs stole one that they accidentally had

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Speaker 2: given away previously. I think you have to count both

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Speaker 2: parts of the equation there. Where first half Chiefs have

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Speaker 2: a drive of seventeen plays sixty four yards, thirteen plays

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Speaker 2: forty eight yards, ten plays eighty one yards field goal,

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Speaker 2: field goal, field goal? Like, what's happening here? The Chiefs

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Speaker 2: are supposed to be so good in the red zone

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Speaker 2: and they kind of screw around sometimes that they're just

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Speaker 2: not executing today. But one touchdown and that game is

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Speaker 2: basically tied at halftime. Instead it's fourteen to nine, they're down,

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Speaker 2: and so that kind of sets up again late in

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Speaker 2: the game, fifteen plays, eighty seven yards, want to throw

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Speaker 2: and the game is over. Nope, gotta settle for a

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Speaker 2: fueld goal. And so they again stalled out in the

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Speaker 2: red zone, had to go to overtime, and then of

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Speaker 2: course added another red zone field goal in overtime. That

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Speaker 2: one's a win. You want that field goal, That's what

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Speaker 2: they wanted there. But Chiefs defense, i think is the

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Speaker 2: story along that the red zone failures kept the game

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Speaker 2: in it, and then their defense kept them in it.

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Speaker 2: On the other side, you mentioned the four straight three

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Speaker 2: and outs for the Colts. This is a team that's

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Speaker 2: had i think multiple games this year where they didn't

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Speaker 2: punt the entire game. I think their punter punted until

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Speaker 2: like October this season, and they came into the game

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Speaker 2: averaging three point two points per drive. That's more than

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Speaker 2: a fueld goal every time you get the ball. They

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Speaker 2: had eleven drives today. The Colts did twenty points and

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Speaker 2: one of those was like a three yard drive after

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Speaker 2: the interception you talked about. That's seven of those twenty points.

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Speaker 2: So Chiefs pressure really strong. This game got after Daniel Jones.

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Speaker 2: Really impressive. Forty one percent pressure against one of the

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Speaker 2: better lines in the league this year. Colts on passing

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Speaker 2: plays thirty four percent success rate, only eleven out of

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Speaker 2: thirty four. Daniel Jones not pumpkinny, but certainly not looking great,

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Speaker 2: not looking very reliable. Jonathan Taylor, he just set his

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Speaker 2: MVP odds sixteen carries for forty eight yards today, so sorry,

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Speaker 2: fifty eight yards I think, but that includes one twenty

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Speaker 2: seven yard run. So other than that, one play fifteen

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Speaker 2: for thirty one so two yards a game the entire

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Speaker 2: game plus one long but not killer run. This defense

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Speaker 2: was awesome by Spags and the Chiefs, and that's against

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Speaker 2: the Colts team coming out of the bye week. They're

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Speaker 2: the team that had the extra time to prepare. This

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Speaker 2: to me, at the end of the game felt like

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Speaker 2: the Chiefs stole it, but on paper by the reason

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Speaker 2: Elks Chiefs forty six to thirty eight percent success rate,

335
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Speaker 2: series success rate seventy six to fifty six, twenty percent

336
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Speaker 2: better on the day. This to me, is the game

337
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Speaker 2: the Chiefs. We've been waiting for it from them. They

338
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Speaker 2: dominated a great team, they deserve they win. They tried

339
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Speaker 2: to give it away. They look death in the face.

340
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Speaker 2: We thought for a second we're going to have an

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Speaker 2: under five hundred mahomes team heading to Thanksgiving. Now six

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Speaker 2: and five, five and one at home Dallas, Houston Chargers, Titans,

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Speaker 2: Broncos Raiders. I think they can exhale a little bit.

344
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Speaker 2: They're still not in the playoffs right now, but I

345
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Speaker 2: think they still are not only favored to make the

346
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Speaker 2: playoffs and should get there pretty easily with this one.

347
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Speaker 2: I think they're alive for the division and even the

348
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Speaker 2: one seed in the AFC if they get some help

349
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Speaker 2: along the way and get to twelve and five winning out.

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Speaker 2: So this, to me, this was the game. This is

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Speaker 2: the one we waited for all year, and this is

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Speaker 2: the turning point to the chief season when we get

353
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Speaker 2: to the AFC Championship and the Chiefs are there yet again,

354
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Speaker 2: like every other year of the homes career, literally every

355
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Speaker 2: single one of them. This is the game that we're

356
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Speaker 2: gonna look back and be like, that's where they turn

357
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Speaker 2: the page.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, you open my eyes because I had been looking

359
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Speaker 3: at it a little bit where they got lucky. But

360
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Speaker 3: you're right, like from a success rate, from a yard

361
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Speaker 3: through play, from an offensive like they looked probably better

362
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Speaker 3: in more hole than they have in a while. I'm

363
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Speaker 3: just looking at a few different metrics, and of course

364
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Speaker 3: I'll give you a stat that'll back up what I'm saying,

365
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Speaker 3: because I that was the storyline I was looking for.

366
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Speaker 3: But I mean it is crazy, like Casey does win

367
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Speaker 3: a game where they lost a turnover battle to zero,

368
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Speaker 3: They didn't sack Daniel Jones once, they like you said,

369
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Speaker 3: one of six in the red zone, trailed by double

370
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Speaker 3: digits twice in the game, never led to the final whistle.

371
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Speaker 3: So I mean there was a lot going one way

372
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Speaker 3: or the other. I'll say this. So here's the stat.

373
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Speaker 3: Teams a trail by eleven plus get no sacks on

374
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Speaker 3: defense and lose a turnover battle to nothing, winless since

375
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Speaker 3: twenty twenty two, five and three thirty eight one point

376
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Speaker 3: five percent the last twenty years. I mean but think

377
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Speaker 3: about that trail by eleven plus you get no sacks,

378
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Speaker 3: So you get no sacks, very difficult to get back

379
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Speaker 3: the ball. Then you have you're losing the turnover battle

380
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Speaker 3: by two. So at that point you're giving the ball

381
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Speaker 3: over a ton. Pretty crazy case. He's still in it.

382
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Speaker 3: But listen, we go to a Thanksgiving where I believe

383
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Speaker 3: the only team that lost. Oh yeah, the only get

384
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Speaker 3: the loss of the Bengals. So five teams get to win.

385
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Speaker 3: Good stuff coming forward, but anything else you feel like

386
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Speaker 3: you want to talk here?

387
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Speaker 2: I just said no on the Colts. So they go

388
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Speaker 2: to eight and three. Now, big loss for them because

389
00:19:32,160 --> 00:19:34,800
Speaker 2: they fall a game back on Denver and New England

390
00:19:34,920 --> 00:19:38,200
Speaker 2: for the one seed, but not necessarily just the one seed.

391
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Speaker 2: There's suddenly in a division race. Jacksonville's got seven wins,

392
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Speaker 2: only one game behind, Houston suddenly is only two behind.

393
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Speaker 2: They play Houston and Jacksonville next, the Colts do. Then

394
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Speaker 2: they get a little break. Here's your break, Seattle and

395
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Speaker 2: San fran then Houston Jacksonville again to end the season.

396
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Speaker 2: This is the schedule we knew was coming for Indianapolis.

397
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Speaker 2: That those are sick teams that all think that they're

398
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Speaker 2: playoff teams right now.

399
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Speaker 3: That's it.

400
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Speaker 2: That's the whole schedule left for the Colts. So this

401
00:20:06,520 --> 00:20:11,480
Speaker 2: dream season, this MVP or OPOY at least Johnson Taylor season,

402
00:20:12,320 --> 00:20:14,440
Speaker 2: it's all been great. But they've got a lot of

403
00:20:14,480 --> 00:20:16,639
Speaker 2: work to do now finishing out. And I'm not burying

404
00:20:16,680 --> 00:20:19,360
Speaker 2: them here by any stretch. I don't believe in Jacksonville

405
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Speaker 2: in particular, but they've got work to do and they're

406
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Speaker 2: gonna have to actually win those division games to win

407
00:20:25,240 --> 00:20:26,520
Speaker 2: the division yet at this point.

408
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Speaker 3: Yeah, and Indy now faces off the ninety one defensive

409
00:20:30,920 --> 00:20:35,720
Speaker 3: plays Houston before traveling to Jacksonville, so we will see

410
00:20:35,840 --> 00:20:37,760
Speaker 3: how it goes then, All right, let's keep going here.

411
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Speaker 3: The Cowboys. Yes, the Cowboys beat the Eagles twenty four

412
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Speaker 3: to twenty one. Cover plus three un closed at home

413
00:20:46,000 --> 00:20:49,560
Speaker 3: total goes under forty eight. The Eagles score touchdowns on

414
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Speaker 3: their first three possessions seven plays fifty yards, twelve plays

415
00:20:53,320 --> 00:20:56,880
Speaker 3: seventy six yards, six plays sixty six yards. They led

416
00:20:57,080 --> 00:20:59,760
Speaker 3: twenty one to nothing at that point, Dallas had seventy

417
00:20:59,800 --> 00:21:02,920
Speaker 3: five five total yards in the game. Even after giving

418
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Speaker 3: up the Dallas touchdown before the half to make it

419
00:21:05,240 --> 00:21:08,400
Speaker 3: twenty one to seven, Philly still goes three and out

420
00:21:08,440 --> 00:21:12,080
Speaker 3: to start the second half. Three total yards on that drive,

421
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Speaker 3: and then basically right after getting it back, eight yard pass,

422
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Speaker 3: five yard penalty, two incomplete passes to DeVonta and they

423
00:21:19,040 --> 00:21:23,080
Speaker 3: punted again. Like the Eagles in this game. Even overall,

424
00:21:23,440 --> 00:21:26,600
Speaker 3: I feel like they struggled on early downs negative EPA

425
00:21:26,680 --> 00:21:29,200
Speaker 3: per play on rush and pass on early downs. And

426
00:21:29,320 --> 00:21:32,719
Speaker 3: again we talked about this, but no Lane Johnson eighteen

427
00:21:32,760 --> 00:21:35,920
Speaker 3: to sixty three on the ground, three point five fifteen

428
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Speaker 3: early rushes for them in this game, just a twenty

429
00:21:38,200 --> 00:21:43,359
Speaker 3: percent success rate. So that mix with fourteen penalty penalties

430
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Speaker 3: just very difficult to overcome. So I mean, that's the

431
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Speaker 3: way I look at it. I'll give it to you

432
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Speaker 3: after this. So Philly's last seven drives punt, punt, punt, punt,

433
00:21:52,000 --> 00:21:54,840
Speaker 3: four straight punts, a missfield goal, a fumble, and a punt.

434
00:21:55,160 --> 00:21:58,359
Speaker 3: I mean they legitimately had I mean, I know how

435
00:21:58,400 --> 00:22:01,200
Speaker 3: we talk about scripted plays to start a game, usually

436
00:22:01,280 --> 00:22:04,440
Speaker 3: not the first three drives, but after that it was

437
00:22:04,600 --> 00:22:07,159
Speaker 3: just an absolute mess. So I mean, what do you

438
00:22:07,359 --> 00:22:10,080
Speaker 3: really take away from just an absolute collapse here?

439
00:22:10,880 --> 00:22:14,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's crazy because the Cowboys really had a collapse

440
00:22:15,000 --> 00:22:17,240
Speaker 2: of their own just happened earlier, and then they came

441
00:22:17,320 --> 00:22:20,119
Speaker 2: back from it, like Cowboys turn it over and downs

442
00:22:20,160 --> 00:22:22,840
Speaker 2: opening drive. Then they fumble the ball to set up

443
00:22:22,880 --> 00:22:25,959
Speaker 2: one of those Eagles touchdowns. Then they're down twenty one

444
00:22:26,000 --> 00:22:27,680
Speaker 2: to nothing and they're driving to at least make it

445
00:22:27,920 --> 00:22:30,800
Speaker 2: sort of close, and Dak throws an interception in the

446
00:22:30,920 --> 00:22:33,320
Speaker 2: end zone. So it's like, all right, this game is over,

447
00:22:33,480 --> 00:22:36,000
Speaker 2: Like we're already turning attention elsewhere. Please give us some

448
00:22:36,240 --> 00:22:39,200
Speaker 2: game in the late window to pay attension to. And then, yeah,

449
00:22:39,280 --> 00:22:41,840
Speaker 2: like you said, in the second half, the Eagles flip

450
00:22:41,920 --> 00:22:44,960
Speaker 2: the table, I guess, and suddenly they're making mistakes you

451
00:22:44,960 --> 00:22:48,359
Speaker 2: didn't even mention on your drives. There's another drive that

452
00:22:48,600 --> 00:22:51,359
Speaker 2: crazy special teams play by a rookie us. They might

453
00:22:51,480 --> 00:22:53,600
Speaker 2: forget that the Cowboy Like that doesn't count as a

454
00:22:53,720 --> 00:22:57,600
Speaker 2: drive because Eagles muff the punt. The Eagles fumble on

455
00:22:57,800 --> 00:23:01,640
Speaker 2: consecutive possessions, and then the Cowboys don't score either one

456
00:23:01,680 --> 00:23:05,200
Speaker 2: of them. The Cowboys get a fumble from Saquan, which

457
00:23:05,280 --> 00:23:06,120
Speaker 2: is first of the year.

458
00:23:06,160 --> 00:23:06,639
Speaker 3: I believe.

459
00:23:07,000 --> 00:23:08,879
Speaker 2: They get the ball, they can't really do much. They

460
00:23:08,960 --> 00:23:12,080
Speaker 2: punt it, and then the guy like the gunner gets

461
00:23:12,160 --> 00:23:14,920
Speaker 2: blocked onto his butt, gets off, gets all the way downfield,

462
00:23:15,000 --> 00:23:16,440
Speaker 2: makes the hit, and I think is the guy that

463
00:23:16,520 --> 00:23:19,520
Speaker 2: we covered the fumble as well inside the ten, and

464
00:23:19,640 --> 00:23:21,680
Speaker 2: they still don't get there, Like they run the ball

465
00:23:21,720 --> 00:23:24,920
Speaker 2: down to the one pass pass past nothing and then

466
00:23:25,160 --> 00:23:27,720
Speaker 2: still get the ball back and eventually go down and

467
00:23:27,760 --> 00:23:33,200
Speaker 2: get the score. The credit to the Cowboys defense that

468
00:23:33,480 --> 00:23:36,920
Speaker 2: it stops throughout this game. Cowboys finished with four or

469
00:23:36,920 --> 00:23:40,600
Speaker 2: in seventy three yards too. So this Eagles defense that

470
00:23:40,720 --> 00:23:42,639
Speaker 2: we just saw play Green Band Detroit and looks so

471
00:23:42,840 --> 00:23:45,880
Speaker 2: dominant in those games, they got beat up in this game.

472
00:23:46,320 --> 00:23:49,000
Speaker 2: Dak Prescott on play action, which the Cowboys don't run

473
00:23:49,000 --> 00:23:51,920
Speaker 2: a ton of play action nine of eleven, one hundred

474
00:23:51,920 --> 00:23:54,880
Speaker 2: and seventy four yards, second most in his career. They play,

475
00:23:54,960 --> 00:23:58,520
Speaker 2: of course, Eagles do on Black Friday against Ben Johnson.

476
00:23:58,640 --> 00:24:01,760
Speaker 2: Guess who runs a lot of player. Ben Johnson's offense

477
00:24:01,840 --> 00:24:04,359
Speaker 2: runs a lot of play action. So suddenly keep in

478
00:24:04,440 --> 00:24:09,879
Speaker 2: mind there, Dallas really almost blew this game. Thanks for nothing.

479
00:24:10,040 --> 00:24:13,040
Speaker 2: Ceedee Lamb three more drops, who I think has like

480
00:24:13,160 --> 00:24:15,960
Speaker 2: six or seven drops just against the Eagles in the season.

481
00:24:15,960 --> 00:24:18,480
Speaker 2: Remember the opener he cost them the game and the

482
00:24:18,560 --> 00:24:22,359
Speaker 2: opener like one hundred yards and multiple drop scores this game.

483
00:24:22,840 --> 00:24:25,960
Speaker 2: They get down after that second fumble and he drops

484
00:24:26,000 --> 00:24:29,040
Speaker 2: a touchdown contested. Well, but you got to catch that one.

485
00:24:29,080 --> 00:24:31,399
Speaker 2: If you're Cedee Lamb the superstar on this team, I

486
00:24:31,440 --> 00:24:33,719
Speaker 2: don't even know if he is anymore. George Pickens might

487
00:24:33,800 --> 00:24:36,280
Speaker 2: be the superstar receiver nine to one hundred and forty

488
00:24:36,320 --> 00:24:38,520
Speaker 2: six in a score Lamb only caught four of his

489
00:24:38,600 --> 00:24:42,560
Speaker 2: eleven targets. If Lamb catches a couple more balls against

490
00:24:42,600 --> 00:24:46,720
Speaker 2: the Eagles, Dallas could probably should have swept this team

491
00:24:46,800 --> 00:24:49,600
Speaker 2: this season. It's certainly at least deserving that they get

492
00:24:49,640 --> 00:24:53,560
Speaker 2: a split out of this sequon ten carries twenty two yards.

493
00:24:54,080 --> 00:24:57,600
Speaker 2: Two games now since the Quinn Williams trade, Dallas's run

494
00:24:57,680 --> 00:25:01,800
Speaker 2: defense has allowed ninety yards rush on thirty carries three

495
00:25:01,920 --> 00:25:05,720
Speaker 2: yards per play, only one run for ten yards or more. So,

496
00:25:06,240 --> 00:25:09,920
Speaker 2: this defense that was so bad early, certainly not ready

497
00:25:09,960 --> 00:25:12,280
Speaker 2: to call them great just yet. You don't get be

498
00:25:12,320 --> 00:25:15,159
Speaker 2: great for stopping the Eagles, but they're certainly doing some

499
00:25:15,359 --> 00:25:19,320
Speaker 2: good things here. And yeah, I guess all that to

500
00:25:19,400 --> 00:25:21,840
Speaker 2: say is zooming out. That's kind of where we're at.

501
00:25:21,880 --> 00:25:23,320
Speaker 2: On the stage is like, Okay, we got like six

502
00:25:23,400 --> 00:25:26,720
Speaker 2: games left, so what does it mean. I think not

503
00:25:26,880 --> 00:25:29,520
Speaker 2: a lot for either of these teams, to be honest.

504
00:25:30,200 --> 00:25:32,159
Speaker 2: Dallas is five to five and a one, but they

505
00:25:32,240 --> 00:25:35,680
Speaker 2: go Chiefs Lions next, So we're gonna get a pretty

506
00:25:35,680 --> 00:25:39,520
Speaker 2: great viewership record with this Cowboys game and that Chiefs

507
00:25:39,600 --> 00:25:42,879
Speaker 2: game into Thanksgiving with each other. Everyone's gonna be watching

508
00:25:42,960 --> 00:25:45,720
Speaker 2: that one. Cowboys are still pretty far out of it

509
00:25:45,760 --> 00:25:49,239
Speaker 2: at this point. Eagles, they should be fine. They've got

510
00:25:49,440 --> 00:25:52,560
Speaker 2: a game in Buffalo later in the season. Otherwise, their

511
00:25:52,560 --> 00:25:56,040
Speaker 2: schedule is relatively soft. I think they'll be fine. They

512
00:25:56,160 --> 00:25:59,040
Speaker 2: maybe this ends up costing them a seeding position or

513
00:25:59,080 --> 00:26:03,359
Speaker 2: two in the NFC mostly even though this feels like

514
00:26:03,520 --> 00:26:07,320
Speaker 2: it matters so much in the division. Probably not a

515
00:26:07,480 --> 00:26:11,159
Speaker 2: huge outcome either way, just because that's that's what the

516
00:26:11,200 --> 00:26:13,680
Speaker 2: Eagles get for building such a strong lead earlier in

517
00:26:13,760 --> 00:26:17,560
Speaker 2: the season. But man, as both you and I have

518
00:26:17,920 --> 00:26:19,920
Speaker 2: just been like crying your eyes out at all this

519
00:26:20,080 --> 00:26:22,920
Speaker 2: Eagles luck all season, it sure feels nice to see

520
00:26:22,960 --> 00:26:24,760
Speaker 2: it finally feel like I came back around and the

521
00:26:24,800 --> 00:26:26,280
Speaker 2: Cowboys to get one off of them.

522
00:26:27,000 --> 00:26:29,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, between this and the Broncos game, Like

523
00:26:29,600 --> 00:26:33,480
Speaker 3: you just continue to see different examples of it working

524
00:26:33,520 --> 00:26:35,520
Speaker 3: at some points, like going to AJ Brown early in

525
00:26:35,600 --> 00:26:38,520
Speaker 3: this game, and everyone's like, oh, like okay, here we go,

526
00:26:39,080 --> 00:26:42,840
Speaker 3: this is great, and then for it to just flat

527
00:26:42,920 --> 00:26:46,440
Speaker 3: out die, like for the possessions to look nothing like

528
00:26:46,560 --> 00:26:50,840
Speaker 3: that afterwards, and for it to come incomplete after incomplete,

529
00:26:50,960 --> 00:26:55,399
Speaker 3: and and honestly, this isn't even Dallas, right because Dallas

530
00:26:55,480 --> 00:26:58,720
Speaker 3: almost gave the game away multiple times. Like I feel

531
00:26:58,760 --> 00:27:01,200
Speaker 3: like it's just worth focusing on, like the Eagles again

532
00:27:01,640 --> 00:27:04,760
Speaker 3: in this game, especially against maybe an improved Dallas defense,

533
00:27:04,800 --> 00:27:07,040
Speaker 3: because again, like you said, it seems like they have

534
00:27:07,160 --> 00:27:09,280
Speaker 3: their stuff together a little bit better with Quinn and

535
00:27:09,359 --> 00:27:14,160
Speaker 3: more pressure up front. But either way, just complete disaster

536
00:27:14,640 --> 00:27:18,639
Speaker 3: from a odds market standpoint. Looking at DraftKings right now,

537
00:27:19,080 --> 00:27:22,440
Speaker 3: just funny that the Cowboys, sitting at five to five

538
00:27:22,520 --> 00:27:25,080
Speaker 3: and one, are seven to one right now to make

539
00:27:25,160 --> 00:27:29,360
Speaker 3: the playoffs. The Chiefs at six and five, who obviously

540
00:27:29,680 --> 00:27:33,480
Speaker 3: meeting on Thanksgiving, are minus two thirty to make the playoffs.

541
00:27:33,560 --> 00:27:38,280
Speaker 3: So two teams, two similar records to just different pedigrees

542
00:27:38,320 --> 00:27:41,359
Speaker 3: in different directions. And I think the schedule for Dallas

543
00:27:41,960 --> 00:27:45,879
Speaker 3: and the uphill climb probably the difference there. But either way, Jerry,

544
00:27:46,440 --> 00:27:50,280
Speaker 3: Jerry got his wish. Dallas winning looking decent, still in

545
00:27:50,359 --> 00:27:53,320
Speaker 3: the mix for a Thanksgiving game against Mahomes. I mean

546
00:27:53,400 --> 00:27:56,280
Speaker 3: it's gonna be something and everybody watches. So that is

547
00:27:56,800 --> 00:27:58,040
Speaker 3: Dallas and Philly.

548
00:27:57,960 --> 00:28:01,600
Speaker 2: Anything else, Yeah, I mean Dallas Kansas City. The difference

549
00:28:01,680 --> 00:28:04,560
Speaker 2: really is the conference too, like Dallas is already with

550
00:28:04,680 --> 00:28:06,680
Speaker 2: this win, only like the ten or eleven seed in

551
00:28:06,720 --> 00:28:09,720
Speaker 2: the NFC, there's just too many teams there. Jerry got

552
00:28:09,760 --> 00:28:12,840
Speaker 2: his wish. I got mine. One more chance to wear

553
00:28:12,960 --> 00:28:15,800
Speaker 2: the old Carson Wentz Eagles jersey this year to top

554
00:28:16,200 --> 00:28:19,800
Speaker 2: Eagles fans to celebrate Carson Wentz, who apparently is the

555
00:28:19,840 --> 00:28:22,800
Speaker 2: best Vikings quarterback on the roster, is still so sorry

556
00:28:22,880 --> 00:28:26,320
Speaker 2: to my Vikings and also go in DS you buys

557
00:28:26,359 --> 00:28:29,040
Speaker 2: and Carson Wentzel moater number one seed yet again in

558
00:28:29,119 --> 00:28:32,000
Speaker 2: the SCS playoffs that came out today, So shouts to

559
00:28:32,080 --> 00:28:32,600
Speaker 2: the buy him.

560
00:28:33,400 --> 00:28:35,840
Speaker 3: Always get what you need. All right, let's get through

561
00:28:35,920 --> 00:28:39,920
Speaker 3: some shorter recaps here. We're gonna go through four games

562
00:28:39,960 --> 00:28:43,960
Speaker 3: and then just get to some scores. Lions win the

563
00:28:44,040 --> 00:28:46,640
Speaker 3: game thirty four to twenty seven at one point I

564
00:28:46,800 --> 00:28:50,800
Speaker 3: was prepping a Giants upset post, so it got real close,

565
00:28:50,880 --> 00:28:52,840
Speaker 3: but Lions win the game thirty four to twenty seven.

566
00:28:53,280 --> 00:28:57,120
Speaker 3: Giants cover the fourteen points on the close total goes

567
00:28:57,280 --> 00:29:00,920
Speaker 3: over forty and a half. I'll start with an injury,

568
00:29:00,960 --> 00:29:03,600
Speaker 3: so Khalif Raymond had an angle injury. Something to watch

569
00:29:03,720 --> 00:29:07,640
Speaker 3: for in the depth chart of the Lions wide receivers.

570
00:29:08,360 --> 00:29:10,920
Speaker 3: I think the Giants week to week, as long as

571
00:29:11,000 --> 00:29:14,800
Speaker 3: Russell Wilson isn't starting a quarterback, tend to just be undervalued,

572
00:29:14,840 --> 00:29:17,000
Speaker 3: at least in the first quarter line. They are now

573
00:29:17,160 --> 00:29:20,240
Speaker 3: nine to three first quarter ats this year, best mark

574
00:29:20,280 --> 00:29:23,200
Speaker 3: in the NFL. They are eight and one first quarter

575
00:29:23,280 --> 00:29:27,280
Speaker 3: ats without Russell Wilson. So with Jamis and Darts starting

576
00:29:28,200 --> 00:29:31,600
Speaker 3: and Detroit's bad first quarter literally only almost cost him

577
00:29:31,600 --> 00:29:34,000
Speaker 3: the game. I mean just two punts in the first quarter,

578
00:29:34,080 --> 00:29:37,239
Speaker 3: while the Giants got three possessions and ten points, they

579
00:29:37,320 --> 00:29:40,280
Speaker 3: turned around and Jamis was for real at least early,

580
00:29:40,400 --> 00:29:42,680
Speaker 3: which is kind of what you always say about Jamis

581
00:29:42,760 --> 00:29:45,440
Speaker 3: is like, wait till later, wait till he has more possessions,

582
00:29:45,520 --> 00:29:48,960
Speaker 3: more time, more throws. The thing that stands out to

583
00:29:49,040 --> 00:29:53,680
Speaker 3: me first three quarters, every time Detroit scored a touchdown.

584
00:29:54,200 --> 00:29:57,400
Speaker 3: The Giants ended up matching it with points. They really

585
00:29:57,520 --> 00:30:01,520
Speaker 3: just kept the pressure on possession by p session. The

586
00:30:01,760 --> 00:30:05,200
Speaker 3: Jamis interception to Wandell in the fourth quarter did break that,

587
00:30:05,960 --> 00:30:09,680
Speaker 3: which kind of again turned the game and kept Detroit

588
00:30:09,840 --> 00:30:12,560
Speaker 3: in it. So what do you make of this one? Especially?

589
00:30:13,040 --> 00:30:14,560
Speaker 3: I kind of want your feedback on, like what do

590
00:30:14,600 --> 00:30:17,200
Speaker 3: you think this means for the Green Bay game? Which

591
00:30:17,240 --> 00:30:18,880
Speaker 3: is probably the more interesting point.

592
00:30:19,680 --> 00:30:21,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, this was just a fun game. It's

593
00:30:21,520 --> 00:30:23,800
Speaker 2: over a thousand yards of offense that this was an

594
00:30:23,880 --> 00:30:27,880
Speaker 2: extremely Jamis Winston game. We get the full Jamis experience.

595
00:30:28,320 --> 00:30:30,760
Speaker 2: You start out four plays into the game like I'm

596
00:30:30,800 --> 00:30:33,840
Speaker 2: on Lions and Lions escalator the way. You don't want

597
00:30:33,880 --> 00:30:37,000
Speaker 2: to start the game as four plays in a rushed,

598
00:30:37,160 --> 00:30:45,200
Speaker 2: overthrown flea flicker touchdown for the Giant top seven nothing. Yeah,

599
00:30:45,400 --> 00:30:47,880
Speaker 2: it looked pretty good on the field, but your minus

600
00:30:47,920 --> 00:30:50,000
Speaker 2: thirty seven and a half Lions tickets pretty much cooked

601
00:30:50,120 --> 00:30:51,920
Speaker 2: when you get the flee flicker four plays in the

602
00:30:51,960 --> 00:30:54,400
Speaker 2: game for the touchdown. Turns out that was cooked all

603
00:30:54,400 --> 00:30:57,520
Speaker 2: the way along. Later in the game, Jamis catches a

604
00:30:57,600 --> 00:31:00,840
Speaker 2: touchdown and not just like catches a touch down my

605
00:31:00,960 --> 00:31:03,800
Speaker 2: guy's like going up there high pointing the ball and

606
00:31:03,880 --> 00:31:06,840
Speaker 2: then like stiff farming and breaking a tackle, rumbling for

607
00:31:06,960 --> 00:31:10,640
Speaker 2: more yards like the no no yes trick play into

608
00:31:10,680 --> 00:31:13,560
Speaker 2: the end zone. Then, of course, because you're getting the

609
00:31:13,560 --> 00:31:16,800
Speaker 2: full Jamis, you get the interception. So it's twenty seven

610
00:31:16,800 --> 00:31:19,760
Speaker 2: to seventeen in the fourth quarter. Yet again, a double

611
00:31:19,840 --> 00:31:22,720
Speaker 2: digit Giants lead in the fourth quarter that they lose.

612
00:31:23,400 --> 00:31:26,040
Speaker 2: I said before the game, can we fire Brian Dable again?

613
00:31:26,760 --> 00:31:29,520
Speaker 2: Can we fire Brian Dable again? Or for the love,

614
00:31:29,640 --> 00:31:32,800
Speaker 2: can we fire Shane Bowen, the defensive coordinator who keeps

615
00:31:32,840 --> 00:31:35,640
Speaker 2: giving up all these crazy comebacks late in the game.

616
00:31:36,280 --> 00:31:39,520
Speaker 2: So Gabs gets a touchdown forty nine yards score three

617
00:31:39,600 --> 00:31:43,360
Speaker 2: plays later, and immediately Jamis interception. I'm the next play,

618
00:31:43,920 --> 00:31:46,479
Speaker 2: the Giants stop them. The Lions drive all their they

619
00:31:46,560 --> 00:31:48,240
Speaker 2: drive all the way down. We saw this in a

620
00:31:48,280 --> 00:31:51,160
Speaker 2: couple games today, teams that were up three and decide

621
00:31:51,200 --> 00:31:53,080
Speaker 2: to go for it rather than kick the field goal

622
00:31:53,160 --> 00:31:56,080
Speaker 2: to go up six. That's the analytics decision. You don't

623
00:31:56,080 --> 00:31:59,040
Speaker 2: want to force opponents to have to be more aggressive

624
00:31:59,520 --> 00:32:02,640
Speaker 2: and push for the touchdown and push even on fourth downs.

625
00:32:02,680 --> 00:32:04,920
Speaker 2: You want them to kind of settle for a fueld goal,

626
00:32:05,360 --> 00:32:08,320
Speaker 2: and that fuel goal the Lions made Bates career long

627
00:32:08,480 --> 00:32:11,760
Speaker 2: fifty nine yards. That was nasty off his foot like that.

628
00:32:12,000 --> 00:32:14,920
Speaker 2: I thought that was going way nowhere near and it

629
00:32:15,040 --> 00:32:18,160
Speaker 2: somehow like pokes through the bottom corner. And of course

630
00:32:18,200 --> 00:32:21,240
Speaker 2: Gibbs scores sixty nine yards on the first play of overtime,

631
00:32:21,320 --> 00:32:23,840
Speaker 2: and then Jamis with a sack to end it, which

632
00:32:24,440 --> 00:32:26,680
Speaker 2: was I believe the only sack he took the entire game,

633
00:32:26,840 --> 00:32:30,800
Speaker 2: So you get the full experience. The NFL is just

634
00:32:30,920 --> 00:32:33,880
Speaker 2: better when Jamis is playing. And you know, you and

635
00:32:33,960 --> 00:32:37,480
Speaker 2: I talked about this with my Lions pick. Which quarterback

636
00:32:37,520 --> 00:32:40,080
Speaker 2: would I have preferred out there? This is why, this

637
00:32:40,160 --> 00:32:41,840
Speaker 2: is why I don't want Jamis out there. It's just

638
00:32:41,920 --> 00:32:44,760
Speaker 2: like high variants. You never know he might stiff arm

639
00:32:44,840 --> 00:32:47,000
Speaker 2: and catch a Heisman touchdown in the middle of the game.

640
00:32:47,080 --> 00:32:50,000
Speaker 2: He's got to live with it after that. To your question,

641
00:32:50,600 --> 00:32:54,680
Speaker 2: what about the Lions forward, I'm not overly worried about this.

642
00:32:54,840 --> 00:32:57,840
Speaker 2: For Detroit. You kind of got the kitchen sink here

643
00:32:57,960 --> 00:33:01,760
Speaker 2: from the Giants. Like to me said I said in

644
00:33:01,880 --> 00:33:05,560
Speaker 2: my cap, no more dead cat bounce, eh. I kind

645
00:33:05,600 --> 00:33:07,560
Speaker 2: of think this was the dead cat bounce. This to

646
00:33:07,680 --> 00:33:10,520
Speaker 2: me was that we fired our coach and we're throwing

647
00:33:10,640 --> 00:33:14,320
Speaker 2: everything we've got at you. This is the Jamis. Screw it,

648
00:33:14,440 --> 00:33:16,160
Speaker 2: We're just out here having fun. Let's go try to

649
00:33:16,200 --> 00:33:18,640
Speaker 2: win a football game. Like they got everything. They get,

650
00:33:18,760 --> 00:33:23,720
Speaker 2: multiple trick play touchdowns, including Jamis. Everything was going the

651
00:33:23,760 --> 00:33:26,840
Speaker 2: Giants way. Just every little tiny thing or some goofy

652
00:33:26,920 --> 00:33:29,760
Speaker 2: play'd be like another thing for the Giants, and the

653
00:33:29,840 --> 00:33:34,240
Speaker 2: Lions won. Still, that's pretty impressive, honestly to have that happen.

654
00:33:35,080 --> 00:33:38,280
Speaker 2: They were fifty one to thirty eight percent success rates,

655
00:33:38,280 --> 00:33:41,960
Speaker 2: so clear margin for the Lions, even stronger on early downs,

656
00:33:42,080 --> 00:33:46,320
Speaker 2: nineteen percent better on early downs. So yeah, look, I

657
00:33:46,360 --> 00:33:50,120
Speaker 2: don't feel great that Detroit gave up so many big

658
00:33:50,320 --> 00:33:53,800
Speaker 2: passing plays down the field. That secondary just was getting attacked.

659
00:33:54,000 --> 00:33:57,120
Speaker 2: So how do I feel about them? Forward? Not great

660
00:33:57,200 --> 00:34:00,719
Speaker 2: about that. But who do the pack have that can

661
00:34:00,800 --> 00:34:04,600
Speaker 2: attack them? Right now? The Packers are so short unhealthy weapons.

662
00:34:05,080 --> 00:34:07,960
Speaker 2: Jacobs didn't play today and now it's short week, so

663
00:34:08,040 --> 00:34:10,560
Speaker 2: we'll see if he's ready to go. Tucker Kraft is out.

664
00:34:11,000 --> 00:34:13,120
Speaker 2: I don't think Jayden Reid will be back just yet,

665
00:34:13,160 --> 00:34:16,160
Speaker 2: and he's not really a big downfield threat anyway. So

666
00:34:16,360 --> 00:34:19,920
Speaker 2: I know Love and Explosives have been working with Green Bay,

667
00:34:20,040 --> 00:34:22,719
Speaker 2: but I'm not sure that they will have the firepower

668
00:34:22,840 --> 00:34:26,080
Speaker 2: to match up. You get Jamir Gibbs two hundred nineteen

669
00:34:26,160 --> 00:34:30,480
Speaker 2: yards rushing forty five receiving three touchdowns. This guy is

670
00:34:30,600 --> 00:34:33,960
Speaker 2: truly just the can score any play sort of player

671
00:34:34,360 --> 00:34:38,440
Speaker 2: and can break the game open. So I still feel

672
00:34:38,640 --> 00:34:42,200
Speaker 2: pretty good about Detroit going forward. They of course blow

673
00:34:42,280 --> 00:34:44,479
Speaker 2: the streak that you and I have loved, thirteen straight

674
00:34:44,560 --> 00:34:47,879
Speaker 2: covers after a loss. They got the win, but now

675
00:34:47,920 --> 00:34:50,760
Speaker 2: they go We'll see them Thursday two weeks now, Packers

676
00:34:51,080 --> 00:34:53,440
Speaker 2: on Thanksgiving, and then of course the game that we

677
00:34:53,560 --> 00:34:56,160
Speaker 2: just kind of get every year now Lion's Cowboys the

678
00:34:56,200 --> 00:35:00,680
Speaker 2: post Thanksgiving Thursday the following week. So Detroit seven and four.

679
00:35:01,320 --> 00:35:03,960
Speaker 2: It's a tough schedule that's left for them. They have

680
00:35:04,200 --> 00:35:06,640
Speaker 2: five of six games left against playoff teams, and the

681
00:35:06,719 --> 00:35:09,320
Speaker 2: other one's Dallas, who certainly looks feisty as well. So

682
00:35:09,960 --> 00:35:13,279
Speaker 2: the Lions, I'm not so so worried out of this one,

683
00:35:13,880 --> 00:35:16,600
Speaker 2: but they're not safe either. They're actually, I believe, out

684
00:35:16,640 --> 00:35:18,600
Speaker 2: of the playoffs if it started right now, even with

685
00:35:18,760 --> 00:35:21,520
Speaker 2: this win, So they've got work to do for sure.

686
00:35:22,480 --> 00:35:24,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, And if you look at the toughest remaining strength

687
00:35:24,560 --> 00:35:28,600
Speaker 3: of schedule, Packers won Colts two, which you meant and

688
00:35:28,920 --> 00:35:31,920
Speaker 3: three Bears for I mean, it's just it's about facing

689
00:35:31,960 --> 00:35:34,040
Speaker 3: each other and the fact that they all have like

690
00:35:34,320 --> 00:35:37,160
Speaker 3: a really good record at like seventy percent sixty percent

691
00:35:37,600 --> 00:35:40,080
Speaker 3: heading forward. But that is what it is. The other

692
00:35:40,120 --> 00:35:42,200
Speaker 3: two things from this game that I feel like we

693
00:35:42,280 --> 00:35:44,600
Speaker 3: got robbed of. I really wanted to see the Giants

694
00:35:44,600 --> 00:35:46,839
Speaker 3: score touchdown and overtime they go for two because I'm

695
00:35:46,840 --> 00:35:49,200
Speaker 3: almost positive the Kafka probably would have done it. I

696
00:35:49,239 --> 00:35:51,480
Speaker 3: think it would have been great, Or it would have

697
00:35:51,480 --> 00:35:53,200
Speaker 3: been great to get a pick six from Jamis to

698
00:35:53,239 --> 00:35:56,000
Speaker 3: give the Lions the cover in overtime, which is like

699
00:35:56,600 --> 00:35:58,839
Speaker 3: never could have happened in NFL history before we change

700
00:35:58,840 --> 00:36:01,120
Speaker 3: the rules. But he would have been the quarterback to

701
00:36:01,239 --> 00:36:03,279
Speaker 3: throw the pass, and then you would have had the

702
00:36:03,360 --> 00:36:05,920
Speaker 3: Detroit guy making the decision to go down if he

703
00:36:06,000 --> 00:36:07,360
Speaker 3: had like an open field. It would have been an

704
00:36:07,400 --> 00:36:10,759
Speaker 3: incredible gambling X, Twitter, Instagram, whatever.

705
00:36:11,000 --> 00:36:13,600
Speaker 2: We know, Like I was wondering as the guy on

706
00:36:13,680 --> 00:36:15,759
Speaker 2: the Lions ticket, all my alts were dead. But do

707
00:36:15,840 --> 00:36:17,520
Speaker 2: we know for sure that they're not just gonna like

708
00:36:17,600 --> 00:36:20,200
Speaker 2: blow that dead like in college, if you get a

709
00:36:20,280 --> 00:36:23,080
Speaker 2: turnover in overtime, they just blow it dead and you

710
00:36:23,160 --> 00:36:25,360
Speaker 2: can't actually get a score, but you don't get scores

711
00:36:25,400 --> 00:36:25,920
Speaker 2: in college.

712
00:36:26,200 --> 00:36:28,359
Speaker 3: Do you think it gets back to the rule, Yeah,

713
00:36:28,400 --> 00:36:30,640
Speaker 3: because I think in college it's different, like the game

714
00:36:30,760 --> 00:36:33,120
Speaker 3: is actually over on the play because if the ball

715
00:36:33,239 --> 00:36:35,640
Speaker 3: is dead, I think in the pros, like the if

716
00:36:35,719 --> 00:36:38,359
Speaker 3: he keeps going and doesn't go down, it's a live ball.

717
00:36:38,960 --> 00:36:43,879
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think so, yeah that as well. But you're right.

718
00:36:44,000 --> 00:36:47,320
Speaker 2: I knew I was hoping for like the longest long shot,

719
00:36:47,400 --> 00:36:49,480
Speaker 2: but I forgot it wasn't so long that would have

720
00:36:49,640 --> 00:36:52,800
Speaker 2: really truly been the full jamis to just end with

721
00:36:52,960 --> 00:36:55,920
Speaker 2: the blown cover on the pick six, like only jamis can.

722
00:36:56,520 --> 00:37:01,160
Speaker 2: Giants have losses now this season by one, three, three, four, seven,

723
00:37:01,239 --> 00:37:05,240
Speaker 2: and seven. Four of those five losses are a playoff teams,

724
00:37:05,680 --> 00:37:08,640
Speaker 2: and I believe in all or all but one of

725
00:37:08,719 --> 00:37:11,120
Speaker 2: those they led by double digits in the fourth quarter.

726
00:37:11,360 --> 00:37:15,440
Speaker 2: So it's kind of terrible. But also if you're a Giant,

727
00:37:15,520 --> 00:37:19,120
Speaker 2: span it's kind of like weirdly a perfect tank season,

728
00:37:19,239 --> 00:37:22,080
Speaker 2: like you're too intent but having a blast over here, Like,

729
00:37:22,160 --> 00:37:24,600
Speaker 2: these games are so fun and you get to enjoy

730
00:37:24,760 --> 00:37:26,799
Speaker 2: like three and a half quarters of them, but then

731
00:37:26,840 --> 00:37:28,239
Speaker 2: you still lose. At the end, you get a pretty

732
00:37:28,280 --> 00:37:30,360
Speaker 2: good draft pick out of it. I feel like that's

733
00:37:30,440 --> 00:37:32,840
Speaker 2: kind of fun. You got your quarterback, you got a

734
00:37:32,880 --> 00:37:36,120
Speaker 2: fun backup quarterback, You're putting up close, fun games every week.

735
00:37:36,480 --> 00:37:38,320
Speaker 2: You're the Giants span. I think it is a pretty

736
00:37:38,320 --> 00:37:41,200
Speaker 2: good outcome for you. What do you think, Oh yeah, born.

737
00:37:41,040 --> 00:37:43,080
Speaker 3: And raised New Yorker, I'd say I'm a Giants fan.

738
00:37:43,320 --> 00:37:46,719
Speaker 3: Like there is also you're also losing games with out scatterbo,

739
00:37:46,920 --> 00:37:50,480
Speaker 3: without neighbors and without dart. Nobody gets the experience losing.

740
00:37:50,920 --> 00:37:53,200
Speaker 3: It's just it's really fun. Every week you get really

741
00:37:53,239 --> 00:37:55,640
Speaker 3: close and then you blow it and hopefully we get

742
00:37:55,640 --> 00:37:57,800
Speaker 3: a really good pick. It's actually the perfect scenario. So

743
00:37:58,360 --> 00:38:01,040
Speaker 3: let's keep doing Let's keep doing that the other thing.

744
00:38:01,120 --> 00:38:03,520
Speaker 3: And this is just like you would assume this jamis

745
00:38:03,800 --> 00:38:05,920
Speaker 3: second start this year, two and out of the over.

746
00:38:06,320 --> 00:38:08,520
Speaker 3: His game's twenty two and thirteen to the over since

747
00:38:08,560 --> 00:38:11,920
Speaker 3: twenty nineteen. I mean, he just brings an absolute twister

748
00:38:12,200 --> 00:38:14,480
Speaker 3: to every game in terms of chaos. It'd be crazy

749
00:38:14,560 --> 00:38:17,000
Speaker 3: for his games not to go over the other thing

750
00:38:17,080 --> 00:38:19,160
Speaker 3: you mentioned, which before I move before we move on

751
00:38:19,440 --> 00:38:23,080
Speaker 3: firehead coaches now five and two ats after this year

752
00:38:23,160 --> 00:38:26,640
Speaker 3: with the Titans and the Giants. So just something fun there,

753
00:38:26,960 --> 00:38:30,560
Speaker 3: all right, Steelers Bears. Bears win the game thirty one

754
00:38:30,560 --> 00:38:33,560
Speaker 3: to twenty eight. This game closed the three, so had

755
00:38:33,680 --> 00:38:35,520
Speaker 3: a push, A lot of people got Chicago two and

756
00:38:35,560 --> 00:38:38,600
Speaker 3: a half, so covered there. Total goes over forty six

757
00:38:38,680 --> 00:38:42,719
Speaker 3: and a half. The story early obviously is Rogers questionable

758
00:38:42,920 --> 00:38:46,160
Speaker 3: the what was it a forearm? I believe injury. He's

759
00:38:46,239 --> 00:38:49,759
Speaker 3: ruled out Sunday morning. This morning, Rudolph has ruled in.

760
00:38:49,920 --> 00:38:53,200
Speaker 3: I think Rudolph played well enough to win the game. Obviously,

761
00:38:53,640 --> 00:38:56,160
Speaker 3: DK Metcalf got hurt I think multiple times with the

762
00:38:56,239 --> 00:38:59,600
Speaker 3: same injury in this game. So we have to watch

763
00:38:59,640 --> 00:39:03,640
Speaker 3: out for next week with Pittsburgh. With that, I mean

764
00:39:04,320 --> 00:39:07,040
Speaker 3: game to game, I feel like we try and predict

765
00:39:07,320 --> 00:39:10,600
Speaker 3: what is like a very random sport, which is the NFL.

766
00:39:11,000 --> 00:39:14,840
Speaker 3: And to me, this was simply a random game based

767
00:39:14,920 --> 00:39:17,919
Speaker 3: off of final result, like the Bears won the game.

768
00:39:18,400 --> 00:39:21,240
Speaker 3: But I think you play this exact game one hundred

769
00:39:21,320 --> 00:39:24,239
Speaker 3: times and it's fifty five to forty five. Because I

770
00:39:24,320 --> 00:39:27,000
Speaker 3: think so many different things happened in this game in

771
00:39:27,160 --> 00:39:30,160
Speaker 3: terms of just turnovers and it just it was a

772
00:39:30,280 --> 00:39:33,560
Speaker 3: very even game all around, but there was a few

773
00:39:33,600 --> 00:39:37,040
Speaker 3: outliers like Caleb played well three touchdowns. Yes he had

774
00:39:37,040 --> 00:39:40,080
Speaker 3: the one fumble loss but one sack. Played well, but

775
00:39:40,400 --> 00:39:44,799
Speaker 3: Pittsburgh ran all over Chicago missing like one hundred linebackers

776
00:39:44,840 --> 00:39:47,200
Speaker 3: in this game. Thirty six carries one hundred and eighty

777
00:39:47,239 --> 00:39:52,399
Speaker 3: six yards, five point two, two touchdowns, and a chef

778
00:39:52,520 --> 00:39:56,920
Speaker 3: kiss fake push push, which you only bring that out

779
00:39:57,040 --> 00:39:58,800
Speaker 3: every once in a while because it's got to be

780
00:39:58,840 --> 00:40:01,520
Speaker 3: a key moment, and this one worked great. But what

781
00:40:01,600 --> 00:40:02,440
Speaker 3: do you make from this one?

782
00:40:03,000 --> 00:40:04,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, I kind of saw the same thing as you,

783
00:40:04,880 --> 00:40:07,800
Speaker 2: Like I have fun notes in my notes, but mostly

784
00:40:07,880 --> 00:40:09,879
Speaker 2: just Yeah, this is a pretty back and forth game

785
00:40:09,960 --> 00:40:12,000
Speaker 2: that's sort of fell like a coin flip in the end.

786
00:40:12,440 --> 00:40:15,000
Speaker 2: Like you said, to fifty five to forty five, I

787
00:40:15,120 --> 00:40:17,200
Speaker 2: might go like fifty two to forty eight. I could

788
00:40:17,280 --> 00:40:20,120
Speaker 2: just go fifty to fifty because I'm not even sure

789
00:40:20,520 --> 00:40:22,720
Speaker 2: which side would be the fifty five. To be honest,

790
00:40:22,800 --> 00:40:24,920
Speaker 2: I think by the numbers, you'd say the Steelers are

791
00:40:24,920 --> 00:40:28,160
Speaker 2: probably the slightly better team ten percent better success rate.

792
00:40:28,280 --> 00:40:30,360
Speaker 2: They ran the ball a little bit better. That's not

793
00:40:30,560 --> 00:40:33,440
Speaker 2: nothing considering how well Chicago has run the ball lately

794
00:40:33,520 --> 00:40:37,520
Speaker 2: as well. So yeah, just came down to Pittsburgh, got

795
00:40:37,560 --> 00:40:41,200
Speaker 2: the fumble touchdown. That's the Caleb Williams play. I thought too.

796
00:40:41,320 --> 00:40:43,480
Speaker 2: Caleb made good plays, but then late in the game

797
00:40:43,920 --> 00:40:46,080
Speaker 2: had one that they're trying to burn the clock and

798
00:40:46,120 --> 00:40:48,439
Speaker 2: they let him throw on third down and he rolled

799
00:40:48,480 --> 00:40:50,600
Speaker 2: out and definitely had no one there. You got to like,

800
00:40:50,680 --> 00:40:53,239
Speaker 2: he's been doing so well this year avoiding sacks. You

801
00:40:53,320 --> 00:40:54,719
Speaker 2: got to take the sack on that one. You got

802
00:40:54,840 --> 00:40:57,279
Speaker 2: to keep the clock rolling, And instead they save the

803
00:40:57,320 --> 00:40:59,600
Speaker 2: Steelers a timeout and kind of left the door open there.

804
00:41:00,320 --> 00:41:02,839
Speaker 2: It just really felt like who'd get the right break

805
00:41:02,920 --> 00:41:05,160
Speaker 2: or who have the ball last in this one. So, I,

806
00:41:05,719 --> 00:41:08,560
Speaker 2: you know, fun game between two teams that are pretty unpredictable.

807
00:41:08,920 --> 00:41:10,840
Speaker 2: I can't take a whole lot going forward. These ken

808
00:41:10,920 --> 00:41:13,600
Speaker 2: of are what we thought these teams were. Pittsburgh now

809
00:41:13,680 --> 00:41:17,000
Speaker 2: six and five, So for all, they get handed a

810
00:41:17,120 --> 00:41:20,000
Speaker 2: Joe Burrow injury, Anna Lamar Jackson injury, and a huge

811
00:41:20,080 --> 00:41:22,359
Speaker 2: lead in the division and now they're six and five

812
00:41:22,840 --> 00:41:25,680
Speaker 2: up next to Buffalo and Baltimore. In a row and

813
00:41:25,840 --> 00:41:29,000
Speaker 2: still later to come Lions and Ravens again as well,

814
00:41:29,160 --> 00:41:32,040
Speaker 2: so they they are out of the playoffs and have

815
00:41:32,320 --> 00:41:34,720
Speaker 2: real work to do and are not in great shape.

816
00:41:35,080 --> 00:41:38,000
Speaker 2: Chicago eight and three, we all know that that's like

817
00:41:38,120 --> 00:41:40,440
Speaker 2: a fake eight and the three they have wins now

818
00:41:41,280 --> 00:41:45,600
Speaker 2: by one, one, two, three, four, and five points, but

819
00:41:45,960 --> 00:41:50,560
Speaker 2: otherwise they're eight and three with a negative point differential

820
00:41:50,719 --> 00:41:54,400
Speaker 2: for the season. There's still minus three on the season

821
00:41:54,480 --> 00:41:56,720
Speaker 2: because they're six and the one of those one score games.

822
00:41:57,239 --> 00:42:01,840
Speaker 2: So I think even in the NFC, they're probably pretty

823
00:42:01,920 --> 00:42:06,120
Speaker 2: safe for the playoffs at this point. But Eagles, then Packers,

824
00:42:06,600 --> 00:42:09,640
Speaker 2: then the Browns, who are not necessarily easy with their defense,

825
00:42:10,120 --> 00:42:14,160
Speaker 2: then the Packers, Niners, Lions. I think the Bears probably

826
00:42:14,200 --> 00:42:15,759
Speaker 2: at this point are good enough to win at least

827
00:42:15,760 --> 00:42:17,880
Speaker 2: a couple of those games, but I think that they

828
00:42:17,920 --> 00:42:21,040
Speaker 2: probably limp into the playoffs, and this sort of win

829
00:42:21,719 --> 00:42:23,879
Speaker 2: is not the sort that tells you that you're gonna

830
00:42:23,880 --> 00:42:26,720
Speaker 2: actually win games once you get there, so we should

831
00:42:26,760 --> 00:42:30,440
Speaker 2: temper expectations still. I guess really on both of these teams,

832
00:42:30,480 --> 00:42:33,000
Speaker 2: we said this might be a bit of a fraud off,

833
00:42:33,080 --> 00:42:35,000
Speaker 2: and I think that's kind of what we saw it

834
00:42:35,120 --> 00:42:38,400
Speaker 2: was a fun game between two slightly above average teams,

835
00:42:38,920 --> 00:42:41,800
Speaker 2: and they're both about to play much better teams and

836
00:42:41,880 --> 00:42:44,080
Speaker 2: then we'll probably know what to do with them from there.

837
00:42:44,960 --> 00:42:46,560
Speaker 3: Yeah. I think the fun thing is that the NFC

838
00:42:46,719 --> 00:42:49,640
Speaker 3: North entering Thanksgiving, which is key for the whole division,

839
00:42:49,800 --> 00:42:53,200
Speaker 3: has no odds on favorite. You have three teams listed

840
00:42:53,239 --> 00:42:56,200
Speaker 3: about three twenty or less I think at this point

841
00:42:56,280 --> 00:42:58,320
Speaker 3: with the Lions and the position they are, with the

842
00:42:58,440 --> 00:43:00,640
Speaker 3: Packers playing week to week with a little bit of

843
00:43:00,680 --> 00:43:03,160
Speaker 3: a question mark, and the Bears just looking so good

844
00:43:03,239 --> 00:43:05,960
Speaker 3: but people wondering how long can last. Both teams just

845
00:43:06,520 --> 00:43:08,680
Speaker 3: kind of sitting there. Obviously in Minnesota you could forget,

846
00:43:08,800 --> 00:43:12,000
Speaker 3: but the other three teams, it's a real interesting race

847
00:43:12,480 --> 00:43:16,520
Speaker 3: from an AFC North standpoint. Ravens at DraftKings sitting at

848
00:43:16,800 --> 00:43:20,080
Speaker 3: minus four to twenty five to win the division, Steelers

849
00:43:20,160 --> 00:43:24,000
Speaker 3: at plus three sixty, they're basically telling you it is toast.

850
00:43:24,800 --> 00:43:29,800
Speaker 3: But again, Pittsburgh has Buffalo at Baltimore Miami on Monday

851
00:43:29,840 --> 00:43:33,160
Speaker 3: Night football and at Detroit. Like not the hardest strength

852
00:43:33,239 --> 00:43:34,960
Speaker 3: to schedule if you just look at the numbers, but

853
00:43:35,200 --> 00:43:37,759
Speaker 3: week to week not the easiest either, Like those are

854
00:43:37,840 --> 00:43:41,640
Speaker 3: teams all vying for things. I mean, Miami is currently

855
00:43:41,680 --> 00:43:44,440
Speaker 3: sitting on Monday night football game, which you know, who

856
00:43:44,480 --> 00:43:46,400
Speaker 3: the hell knows what Miami is going to look like

857
00:43:46,480 --> 00:43:49,759
Speaker 3: in three weeks, but Miami now it is what it is.

858
00:43:49,840 --> 00:43:52,799
Speaker 3: And then at Detroit. So Pittsburgh's got a real tough

859
00:43:52,880 --> 00:43:56,000
Speaker 3: sledding ahead. So one thing I think that's really crazy

860
00:43:56,040 --> 00:43:59,120
Speaker 3: about the Bears. So they've won four straight games, all

861
00:43:59,200 --> 00:44:02,160
Speaker 3: by five points less, like they are legitimately weak to

862
00:44:02,239 --> 00:44:04,759
Speaker 3: week playing with fire, and playing with fire with a

863
00:44:04,840 --> 00:44:07,320
Speaker 3: guy I wouldn't want to play fire with, which is Caleb.

864
00:44:07,440 --> 00:44:10,440
Speaker 3: So the fact that it's working is actually crazy. And

865
00:44:10,680 --> 00:44:13,400
Speaker 3: one of the reasons it's working the interception game. They

866
00:44:13,400 --> 00:44:17,000
Speaker 3: are right now sixteen picks through eleven games, and they

867
00:44:17,040 --> 00:44:21,279
Speaker 3: are plus sixteen in turnover Ditcher differential, which you know,

868
00:44:21,560 --> 00:44:23,480
Speaker 3: first team to do that through eleven games since the

869
00:44:23,560 --> 00:44:28,399
Speaker 3: twenty nineteen Patriots for that twenty fifteen Panthers. Like they're

870
00:44:28,520 --> 00:44:30,760
Speaker 3: kind of on another level right now, which is definitely

871
00:44:30,840 --> 00:44:33,799
Speaker 3: helping out in each of these games. So I still

872
00:44:33,920 --> 00:44:36,640
Speaker 3: kind of feel like there's like something off with them.

873
00:44:36,719 --> 00:44:41,200
Speaker 3: But the run game, the turnovers week to week, Chicago's there,

874
00:44:41,320 --> 00:44:42,319
Speaker 3: so all right, let's keep.

875
00:44:42,360 --> 00:44:44,840
Speaker 2: A little bonus hot read for you. We'll get to

876
00:44:44,920 --> 00:44:47,200
Speaker 2: the actual hot read in a while, so stick around

877
00:44:47,239 --> 00:44:49,319
Speaker 2: for that a few minutes. I think as you look

878
00:44:49,320 --> 00:44:53,200
Speaker 2: ahead to Thanksgiving, I'm totally with you on the Bears.

879
00:44:53,360 --> 00:44:56,759
Speaker 2: Something is off fade coming for them. A great way

880
00:44:56,800 --> 00:44:59,280
Speaker 2: to fade them is who do you like on Thanksgiving?

881
00:44:59,440 --> 00:45:02,640
Speaker 2: Packers are Lions. We're getting a juicy plus number because

882
00:45:02,680 --> 00:45:05,480
Speaker 2: of the Bears hanging around this swell bet the division

883
00:45:05,680 --> 00:45:08,680
Speaker 2: for your money line play on Thanksgiving. If you like

884
00:45:08,719 --> 00:45:10,920
Speaker 2: the Lions, they're gonna be set up well. If you

885
00:45:11,040 --> 00:45:13,960
Speaker 2: like the Packers, they win that one. They sweep the Lions.

886
00:45:13,960 --> 00:45:16,399
Speaker 2: Remember they beat them in Week one, so that sets

887
00:45:16,440 --> 00:45:18,800
Speaker 2: the Packers up pretty well going forward as well. So

888
00:45:19,400 --> 00:45:21,560
Speaker 2: I think that's maybe the way that you fade the

889
00:45:21,640 --> 00:45:24,480
Speaker 2: Bears is pick what you like in that game, pick

890
00:45:24,520 --> 00:45:27,560
Speaker 2: them as the division winner. I will tell you right now,

891
00:45:28,239 --> 00:45:30,560
Speaker 2: I will be making a pick on all the Thanksgiving games.

892
00:45:30,680 --> 00:45:34,200
Speaker 2: I'm definitely leaning pretty strongly toward the Lions right now,

893
00:45:34,320 --> 00:45:36,960
Speaker 2: to the point that that almost was a hot read

894
00:45:37,040 --> 00:45:39,480
Speaker 2: for me. But it's at three right now, and it's

895
00:45:39,560 --> 00:45:43,160
Speaker 2: just stubbornly stuck right at three but like DraftKings, it's

896
00:45:43,360 --> 00:45:46,560
Speaker 2: minus three plus one hundred. That tells me that there's

897
00:45:46,600 --> 00:45:48,719
Speaker 2: a really good chance we might get that thing below

898
00:45:48,760 --> 00:45:50,640
Speaker 2: a key number. That's why it's not a hot read

899
00:45:50,719 --> 00:45:52,319
Speaker 2: yet because I'll take the two and a half who

900
00:45:52,320 --> 00:45:54,359
Speaker 2: and get there. But I think it's a pretty good

901
00:45:54,400 --> 00:45:57,760
Speaker 2: matchup for Detroit. I still think this is a Lions Division.

902
00:45:58,280 --> 00:46:01,040
Speaker 2: I still don't think it's the Bears. Even so, I'm

903
00:46:01,080 --> 00:46:03,200
Speaker 2: on Bears island from before the season. I kind of

904
00:46:03,239 --> 00:46:06,399
Speaker 2: forgot because I like, abandoned ship and get out of there.

905
00:46:06,680 --> 00:46:08,359
Speaker 2: But I still have those tickets. This was my big

906
00:46:08,440 --> 00:46:11,200
Speaker 2: sleeper for the season. I should be victory lapping, but

907
00:46:11,320 --> 00:46:13,239
Speaker 2: I don't really feel that great about the tickets still

908
00:46:13,280 --> 00:46:15,680
Speaker 2: for all the reasons that you said. So we'll see.

909
00:46:16,120 --> 00:46:18,680
Speaker 2: But going into Thanksgiving, I think that's a good futures

910
00:46:18,680 --> 00:46:20,640
Speaker 2: angle to play. If you agree with the Bears fade

911
00:46:20,680 --> 00:46:21,600
Speaker 2: down the stretch.

912
00:46:22,040 --> 00:46:24,319
Speaker 3: Yeah, listen. By Friday afternoon, you might feel great if

913
00:46:24,360 --> 00:46:26,440
Speaker 3: the Bears winn is a seven point hunderdog in Philly.

914
00:46:26,480 --> 00:46:28,879
Speaker 3: But that's true. We will talk about that another time.

915
00:46:29,960 --> 00:46:33,080
Speaker 3: Patriots Bengals. Patriots won the game twenty six to twenty.

916
00:46:33,520 --> 00:46:36,240
Speaker 3: Cincinnati covers the seven and a half on closed total

917
00:46:36,360 --> 00:46:40,239
Speaker 3: under fifty and a half, the two injuries t Higgins concussion.

918
00:46:40,640 --> 00:46:43,640
Speaker 3: I mean, I would be shocked to hear that he's

919
00:46:43,680 --> 00:46:46,200
Speaker 3: going to play on a short week on Thursday night

920
00:46:46,280 --> 00:46:49,680
Speaker 3: football in Baltimore. You assume Chase comes back, but now

921
00:46:50,400 --> 00:46:53,000
Speaker 3: no Higgins in that game, and then will Campbell cart

922
00:46:53,040 --> 00:46:56,239
Speaker 3: it off? I'm being I read some tweets that maybe

923
00:46:56,360 --> 00:46:59,719
Speaker 3: not as bad and possible return. It looked bad at

924
00:46:59,760 --> 00:47:03,040
Speaker 3: the time, so that is decent news there. To me,

925
00:47:03,520 --> 00:47:06,440
Speaker 3: this was just a good mini test for the Patriots,

926
00:47:06,520 --> 00:47:10,440
Speaker 3: Like I want to see them in uncomfortable situations, and

927
00:47:10,600 --> 00:47:14,120
Speaker 3: this was relatively uncomfortable at least early. This was the

928
00:47:14,200 --> 00:47:18,440
Speaker 3: biggest Patriots comeback ten points since twenty twenty one. New

929
00:47:18,480 --> 00:47:21,720
Speaker 3: England had lost thirty two straight games. Thirty two straight

930
00:47:21,800 --> 00:47:24,360
Speaker 3: games when trailing by ten points or more, just not

931
00:47:24,480 --> 00:47:27,359
Speaker 3: something they'd really been in and when they were bad

932
00:47:27,600 --> 00:47:30,160
Speaker 3: they lost all the games. And Raybels teams haven't really

933
00:47:30,200 --> 00:47:33,760
Speaker 3: been in this spot. But to me, the t Higgins

934
00:47:33,920 --> 00:47:37,880
Speaker 3: injury probably was a part of the turn here, getting

935
00:47:37,880 --> 00:47:40,000
Speaker 3: her late in the game, no Chase, you had a

936
00:47:40,080 --> 00:47:43,880
Speaker 3: Mitchell Tinsley touchdown. I believe that's a congratulations to Raybaon

937
00:47:43,960 --> 00:47:46,759
Speaker 3: who had that. But New England goes zero of two

938
00:47:46,800 --> 00:47:49,719
Speaker 3: in the red zone. Cincinnati's defense played well enough to

939
00:47:49,760 --> 00:47:52,439
Speaker 3: give them a chance here, but the offense just wasn't

940
00:47:52,440 --> 00:47:55,440
Speaker 3: there today. And when Cincinnati's offense doesn't show up for

941
00:47:55,760 --> 00:47:58,359
Speaker 3: whatever reason, they're just not even going to be close.

942
00:47:58,440 --> 00:48:00,759
Speaker 3: And that's thet they got luck even be close in

943
00:48:00,800 --> 00:48:01,040
Speaker 3: this one.

944
00:48:01,080 --> 00:48:04,080
Speaker 2: I think, Yeah, I agree, the offense really didn't show

945
00:48:04,080 --> 00:48:06,000
Speaker 2: which is a bummer because I think the Bengals defense

946
00:48:06,080 --> 00:48:08,480
Speaker 2: really played a great game. They held them to nineteen

947
00:48:08,600 --> 00:48:11,399
Speaker 2: points outside of both teams got to pick six here,

948
00:48:11,560 --> 00:48:14,239
Speaker 2: so really we go under and it shouldn't have even

949
00:48:14,280 --> 00:48:16,600
Speaker 2: been close, even though this is a game that, like

950
00:48:16,680 --> 00:48:19,000
Speaker 2: I'm playing multiple props on. We're thinking this might be

951
00:48:19,120 --> 00:48:21,880
Speaker 2: like shootout in the thirties or forties both teams, and

952
00:48:21,960 --> 00:48:25,200
Speaker 2: we got nothing like that. I thought that, you know,

953
00:48:25,280 --> 00:48:27,960
Speaker 2: we were team Bengals on this one. The Patriots get

954
00:48:28,000 --> 00:48:31,160
Speaker 2: a long drive, they had at one point nine straight

955
00:48:31,280 --> 00:48:34,560
Speaker 2: plays inside the five and got stopped on fourth down,

956
00:48:34,600 --> 00:48:36,920
Speaker 2: and I was like, this is our day, this Bengals,

957
00:48:36,960 --> 00:48:39,680
Speaker 2: this is the one. And I will say that got

958
00:48:39,760 --> 00:48:42,359
Speaker 2: the cover in part because it held the points off

959
00:48:42,400 --> 00:48:45,200
Speaker 2: the board, but also I think scared Mike Rabel into

960
00:48:45,320 --> 00:48:47,440
Speaker 2: going field goal, field goal, field goal the rest of

961
00:48:47,520 --> 00:48:51,520
Speaker 2: the game and settling, And unlike the others, he actually

962
00:48:51,640 --> 00:48:54,080
Speaker 2: did go to go up six in the game, and

963
00:48:54,239 --> 00:48:56,480
Speaker 2: that gave the Bengals a shot. Like they were pushing

964
00:48:56,920 --> 00:48:59,920
Speaker 2: down the field. They didn't quite have it. There's nobody

965
00:49:00,120 --> 00:49:02,239
Speaker 2: left to throw to you with T Higgins on the sideline,

966
00:49:02,360 --> 00:49:06,520
Speaker 2: So I think three and eight for the Bengals. Probably

967
00:49:06,719 --> 00:49:10,839
Speaker 2: this is it now. Certainly you know Burrow will come back,

968
00:49:10,920 --> 00:49:14,160
Speaker 2: you would guess on Thursday night and give the Ravens

969
00:49:14,160 --> 00:49:16,800
Speaker 2: all they can handle. Tough one to cap because we

970
00:49:16,880 --> 00:49:19,399
Speaker 2: don't know what Burrow could be. I'm guessing we won't

971
00:49:19,480 --> 00:49:21,919
Speaker 2: know till probably close to the game weather he'll play.

972
00:49:22,400 --> 00:49:24,840
Speaker 2: Lamar has not looked that great for the Ravens and

973
00:49:24,960 --> 00:49:29,120
Speaker 2: they're certainly not impressing. So Dashimi interesting one on Thursday,

974
00:49:29,120 --> 00:49:33,160
Speaker 2: and I agree, probably know Higgins, there not a lot

975
00:49:33,239 --> 00:49:34,880
Speaker 2: for the Patriots here. I think you're right, kind of

976
00:49:34,960 --> 00:49:36,680
Speaker 2: nice to get tested and come with a win a

977
00:49:36,680 --> 00:49:40,800
Speaker 2: little bit. Drake May two games now against the Bengals

978
00:49:40,840 --> 00:49:42,800
Speaker 2: and Jets, who are two of the worst pass defenses

979
00:49:42,840 --> 00:49:47,080
Speaker 2: in the league. Not super MVP looks by Drake May here.

980
00:49:47,239 --> 00:49:50,920
Speaker 2: So it's not just that Stafford is looking good, but

981
00:49:51,040 --> 00:49:52,960
Speaker 2: as you think of the MVP race, I think that's

982
00:49:53,040 --> 00:49:55,719
Speaker 2: partly why Drake is falling back a little bit. But

983
00:49:56,200 --> 00:49:58,239
Speaker 2: that's gonna be fine. With New England. Song they keep winning.

984
00:49:58,920 --> 00:50:01,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, they've won nine in a row. And this is

985
00:50:02,000 --> 00:50:04,239
Speaker 3: a cool note. So they had a win total below nine.

986
00:50:04,640 --> 00:50:06,719
Speaker 3: Just a third team to with a win total below

987
00:50:06,800 --> 00:50:10,200
Speaker 3: nine with a nine plus game win streak since twenty nineteen.

988
00:50:10,400 --> 00:50:12,960
Speaker 3: The Vikings did it last year and the Ravens in

989
00:50:13,040 --> 00:50:16,800
Speaker 3: twenty nineteen. So some unexpected goodness coming out of New England.

990
00:50:16,840 --> 00:50:19,320
Speaker 3: And then next week they are on Monday Night Football

991
00:50:19,800 --> 00:50:23,160
Speaker 3: the start of December. December first at home against the Giants,

992
00:50:23,239 --> 00:50:25,160
Speaker 3: so that is the next time you will see the

993
00:50:25,200 --> 00:50:29,320
Speaker 3: Patriots in another opportunity for Drake May to try to

994
00:50:29,360 --> 00:50:33,120
Speaker 3: catch Matthew Stafford. Also, if you've been under in a

995
00:50:33,160 --> 00:50:35,440
Speaker 3: Cincinnati home game and win, you should probably get double.

996
00:50:35,680 --> 00:50:38,480
Speaker 3: But that's just something I'm gonna leave there, all right,

997
00:50:38,640 --> 00:50:42,000
Speaker 3: last game here before we roll some scores. Jaguars Cardinals.

998
00:50:42,120 --> 00:50:45,239
Speaker 3: Jaguars win twenty seven to twenty four. I petitioned to

999
00:50:45,320 --> 00:50:47,080
Speaker 3: get this game out of the damn rundown and do

1000
00:50:47,160 --> 00:50:49,360
Speaker 3: it later, but Brandon's got something to say here, so

1001
00:50:49,520 --> 00:50:51,480
Speaker 3: let's just keep going. Covers minus two and a half

1002
00:50:51,560 --> 00:50:54,320
Speaker 3: unclosed in overtime, so it goes over forty seven and

1003
00:50:54,360 --> 00:50:56,960
Speaker 3: a half. Yeah, I mean, this just felt like desperate

1004
00:50:57,000 --> 00:50:59,840
Speaker 3: football most of the game. The first team to actually

1005
00:51:00,000 --> 00:51:02,360
Speaker 3: hold the lead in this game, well, my note actually

1006
00:51:02,400 --> 00:51:04,960
Speaker 3: won the game because every time a team took the lead,

1007
00:51:05,000 --> 00:51:07,080
Speaker 3: the other team took the lead, and it just felt

1008
00:51:07,160 --> 00:51:09,239
Speaker 3: like nobody actually wanted to win this game, which is

1009
00:51:09,600 --> 00:51:12,520
Speaker 3: kind of what you get when Trevor Lawrence faces Jacoby Brissett.

1010
00:51:12,920 --> 00:51:17,759
Speaker 3: But Lawrence through three touchdown passes, three interceptions eighteen to

1011
00:51:17,880 --> 00:51:20,800
Speaker 3: thirty and there were a lot of turnover worthy throws.

1012
00:51:21,200 --> 00:51:23,359
Speaker 3: I'm almost sure that when you look through the data

1013
00:51:23,480 --> 00:51:27,840
Speaker 3: this week in late passdowns, the Jaguars minus one point

1014
00:51:27,920 --> 00:51:31,200
Speaker 3: eighty four epa per play on nine plays. That is

1015
00:51:31,560 --> 00:51:35,440
Speaker 3: goddamn terrible. And here's the funny one. And so I

1016
00:51:35,560 --> 00:51:38,399
Speaker 3: was looking for a comp for Trevor Lawrence. Here's Trevor

1017
00:51:38,480 --> 00:51:42,560
Speaker 3: Lawrence's numbers this year. Fourteen touchdowns, eleven picks, sixty percent

1018
00:51:42,719 --> 00:51:45,439
Speaker 3: completion percentage, twenty four hundred pass yards and a seventy

1019
00:51:45,560 --> 00:51:50,360
Speaker 3: nine passer rating. Here's Joe Flacco fifteen touchdowns, ten picks,

1020
00:51:50,680 --> 00:51:53,279
Speaker 3: sixty percent completion percentage, twenty four hundred pass yards and

1021
00:51:53,320 --> 00:51:56,759
Speaker 3: his seventy nine passer rating, the exact same stats as

1022
00:51:56,840 --> 00:51:58,719
Speaker 3: Trevor Lawrence. So if you're looking for a comp there,

1023
00:51:59,000 --> 00:52:00,719
Speaker 3: I just felt like that was kind of interesting in

1024
00:52:00,760 --> 00:52:03,720
Speaker 3: the way they are perceived. But this is a terrible

1025
00:52:03,800 --> 00:52:07,240
Speaker 3: game for Lawrence. He has a three percent interception percentage

1026
00:52:07,280 --> 00:52:09,840
Speaker 3: of seedings and the worst for him in his career.

1027
00:52:10,680 --> 00:52:12,840
Speaker 3: And the crazy one before I toss it back to

1028
00:52:13,040 --> 00:52:17,400
Speaker 3: Jacksonville turned it over four times, Arizona none. Jacksonville ends

1029
00:52:17,480 --> 00:52:19,839
Speaker 3: up winning the game, second team since two thousand and eight,

1030
00:52:20,160 --> 00:52:23,080
Speaker 3: twin on the road after losing the turnover battle by

1031
00:52:23,360 --> 00:52:26,759
Speaker 3: four plus. Just an absolute chaos of a game that

1032
00:52:26,840 --> 00:52:27,359
Speaker 3: went to ot.

1033
00:52:27,960 --> 00:52:30,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, the turnover thing was crazy. That was my keynote

1034
00:52:30,760 --> 00:52:32,800
Speaker 2: here as well, and I wrote in my notes the

1035
00:52:32,920 --> 00:52:35,759
Speaker 2: full Lawrence Experience. It's kind of what I said about

1036
00:52:35,840 --> 00:52:38,960
Speaker 2: Jameis Winston. Maybe Jamis is the Conference Trevor Lawrence. You know,

1037
00:52:39,040 --> 00:52:41,279
Speaker 2: you get your former number one to pick. That's just

1038
00:52:41,400 --> 00:52:45,160
Speaker 2: like everything. Three touchdowns and three picks and three sacks

1039
00:52:45,200 --> 00:52:47,839
Speaker 2: in the game. It's like the triple triple or whatever

1040
00:52:47,960 --> 00:52:50,440
Speaker 2: that is. And he also had a fumble into a

1041
00:52:50,520 --> 00:52:53,680
Speaker 2: touchdown earlier in the game as well. Otherwise, the Cardinals

1042
00:52:53,719 --> 00:52:58,040
Speaker 2: are really never even competitive here. Jacoby Brissette leaves briefly,

1043
00:52:58,480 --> 00:53:01,799
Speaker 2: we get BYU rookie Keaton Slovas comes in and throws

1044
00:53:01,800 --> 00:53:05,799
Speaker 2: a couple of passes. So you said earlier the Buccaneers,

1045
00:53:05,840 --> 00:53:09,000
Speaker 2: we talked about them coming up next Cardinals Bucks next week.

1046
00:53:09,280 --> 00:53:12,120
Speaker 2: We might get a Slovis Teddy matchup in that one.

1047
00:53:12,560 --> 00:53:13,040
Speaker 3: We'll see.

1048
00:53:13,200 --> 00:53:16,640
Speaker 2: Let's hope that we get real quarterbacks. Brissett is firing everywhere.

1049
00:53:16,680 --> 00:53:19,279
Speaker 2: He set the record a week ago for most completions

1050
00:53:19,800 --> 00:53:23,760
Speaker 2: forty nine pass attempts. Again, they've been crazy pass heavy.

1051
00:53:23,880 --> 00:53:27,759
Speaker 2: So if it is Brissett keep playing overs McBride nine

1052
00:53:27,840 --> 00:53:29,920
Speaker 2: for seventy nine, that's just like a normal week for

1053
00:53:30,040 --> 00:53:33,000
Speaker 2: him at this point. Michael Wilson ten for one to eighteen.

1054
00:53:33,440 --> 00:53:35,600
Speaker 2: So Cardinals are just gonna go down flinging it. I

1055
00:53:35,680 --> 00:53:39,319
Speaker 2: guess Brissette took six sacks on the game, Jacksonville's seven

1056
00:53:39,400 --> 00:53:42,120
Speaker 2: and four. They're now in that mix in the division

1057
00:53:42,200 --> 00:53:44,080
Speaker 2: and in the in the wild card as well. And

1058
00:53:44,800 --> 00:53:48,240
Speaker 2: they have six games left. Three are against the Colts

1059
00:53:48,320 --> 00:53:52,080
Speaker 2: twice and the Broncos not great, three are against the

1060
00:53:52,200 --> 00:53:55,080
Speaker 2: Titans twice and the Jets. All right, can you just

1061
00:53:55,160 --> 00:53:58,160
Speaker 2: split those? You go three and three and finish ten

1062
00:53:58,239 --> 00:54:01,440
Speaker 2: and seven. You're probably in in the AFC, and you're

1063
00:54:01,480 --> 00:54:05,479
Speaker 2: probably in in place of maybe the Chiefs or maybe

1064
00:54:05,560 --> 00:54:09,359
Speaker 2: the Ravens or somebody that, like, frankly, we actually want

1065
00:54:09,360 --> 00:54:12,360
Speaker 2: to see in the playoffs. Instead, we're gonna get the

1066
00:54:12,480 --> 00:54:17,759
Speaker 2: Jamis Winston, Trevor Lawrence Jaguar is looking and I don't know,

1067
00:54:19,080 --> 00:54:21,279
Speaker 2: it's not been a fun team this year, and it's

1068
00:54:21,320 --> 00:54:23,520
Speaker 2: not been a super easy team to predict. I was

1069
00:54:23,560 --> 00:54:25,880
Speaker 2: on the cards in this game plus three of what

1070
00:54:26,000 --> 00:54:28,600
Speaker 2: I got, so just end up pushing after all that. Anyways,

1071
00:54:29,040 --> 00:54:31,759
Speaker 2: kind of feels like the right outcome here for the

1072
00:54:31,920 --> 00:54:34,840
Speaker 2: distasteful experience of the game was Yeah, I.

1073
00:54:34,840 --> 00:54:37,480
Speaker 3: Think you're probably right. The other note is Jacksonville and

1074
00:54:37,560 --> 00:54:39,800
Speaker 3: Arizona both on the road next week, as you noted,

1075
00:54:40,120 --> 00:54:42,840
Speaker 3: and in overtime in this game, so maybe a little

1076
00:54:42,880 --> 00:54:46,600
Speaker 3: bit of a tough spot for both teams. Arizona one

1077
00:54:46,680 --> 00:54:49,960
Speaker 3: in eight straight up in their last nine percent. Fights

1078
00:54:50,000 --> 00:54:52,600
Speaker 3: every week, but they're just kind of falling apart week

1079
00:54:52,640 --> 00:54:54,719
Speaker 3: to week. But maybe they get Teddy two gloves next

1080
00:54:54,760 --> 00:54:57,640
Speaker 3: week and that would be an awesome game there. All right,

1081
00:54:57,920 --> 00:55:00,239
Speaker 3: let's just get through some final scores before or we

1082
00:55:00,320 --> 00:55:02,799
Speaker 3: get some Monday night football and some picks. Cleveland wins

1083
00:55:02,880 --> 00:55:05,000
Speaker 3: twenty four to ten, covers this three and a half

1084
00:55:05,080 --> 00:55:07,560
Speaker 3: point Dogs on the road total goes under thirty six

1085
00:55:07,600 --> 00:55:09,920
Speaker 3: and a half. The injury here would be gent to

1086
00:55:10,000 --> 00:55:11,800
Speaker 3: watch out four. I believe he had an ankle, but

1087
00:55:12,160 --> 00:55:15,120
Speaker 3: I think he's probably gonna be all right. Brown's closed

1088
00:55:15,160 --> 00:55:18,040
Speaker 3: with eighty one percent of the tickets in this game,

1089
00:55:18,360 --> 00:55:20,799
Speaker 3: which would be the highest for them in our bet

1090
00:55:20,880 --> 00:55:24,000
Speaker 3: Labs database dating back to two thousand and three. That

1091
00:55:24,080 --> 00:55:27,000
Speaker 3: would be like three hundred and sixty six games. This

1092
00:55:27,080 --> 00:55:30,560
Speaker 3: would be the highest ticket percentage. And obviously Shador's first start.

1093
00:55:30,840 --> 00:55:33,320
Speaker 3: He gets the first win in a first start for

1094
00:55:33,360 --> 00:55:37,080
Speaker 3: a Cleveland Brown since ninety five. All great stuff there.

1095
00:55:37,280 --> 00:55:38,879
Speaker 3: We thought the story was going to be the pass

1096
00:55:39,000 --> 00:55:42,040
Speaker 3: rush on Vegas side, but it was the pass rush

1097
00:55:42,080 --> 00:55:47,520
Speaker 3: on Cleveland side. Ridiculous ten sacks three from Miles. Now

1098
00:55:47,560 --> 00:55:51,120
Speaker 3: you got most sacks in teams first eleven games. Miles

1099
00:55:51,160 --> 00:55:53,759
Speaker 3: Garrett was eighteen at the top, and then it's Mark

1100
00:55:53,840 --> 00:55:57,239
Speaker 3: Gastineau with seven seventeen and a half and eighty four.

1101
00:55:57,880 --> 00:56:02,240
Speaker 3: Absolutely ridiculous start from my Garrett. So we will continue

1102
00:56:02,360 --> 00:56:05,880
Speaker 3: looking at that pace there all right, Seattle beats the

1103
00:56:06,040 --> 00:56:08,719
Speaker 3: Titans at kind of a weird one at the end

1104
00:56:08,760 --> 00:56:10,640
Speaker 3: there as it made it tighter than it was thirty

1105
00:56:10,760 --> 00:56:13,560
Speaker 3: twenty four. As a final, Tennessee covers at twelve and

1106
00:56:13,560 --> 00:56:15,680
Speaker 3: a half on closed total goes over forty one and

1107
00:56:15,680 --> 00:56:19,479
Speaker 3: a half. I wrote, nice bounce back for Sam question

1108
00:56:19,640 --> 00:56:22,880
Speaker 3: Mark or just nice to have jsn Jysn broke the

1109
00:56:22,960 --> 00:56:26,960
Speaker 3: Seahawks single season receiving record and it's only week twelve.

1110
00:56:27,520 --> 00:56:31,839
Speaker 3: He has thirteen hundred and thirteen receiving yards. Believe he's

1111
00:56:31,880 --> 00:56:35,600
Speaker 3: like four hundred above the next closest guy at the moment.

1112
00:56:36,120 --> 00:56:39,239
Speaker 3: Thirteen thirteen is the second highest through eleven games we

1113
00:56:39,400 --> 00:56:43,520
Speaker 3: have seen, behind Tyreek who had thirteen twenty four in

1114
00:56:43,880 --> 00:56:46,759
Speaker 3: twenty twenty three. I said before he is down to

1115
00:56:46,920 --> 00:56:49,400
Speaker 3: forty to one twin MVP. If he has a few

1116
00:56:49,440 --> 00:56:51,520
Speaker 3: more of those games, that is going to get shorter.

1117
00:56:52,320 --> 00:56:55,040
Speaker 3: He is on pace for two thousand and twenty nine

1118
00:56:55,120 --> 00:56:57,880
Speaker 3: receiving yards to be the first player ever to get

1119
00:56:57,920 --> 00:57:01,919
Speaker 3: to two thousand. All right, Ravens beat the Jets twenty

1120
00:57:01,960 --> 00:57:04,800
Speaker 3: three to ten. Jets cover the fourteen on close total

1121
00:57:04,960 --> 00:57:08,120
Speaker 3: under forty four and a half. Not Lamar's best, showing

1122
00:57:08,200 --> 00:57:12,280
Speaker 3: thirteen completions ten incompletions just one hundred and fifty three yards,

1123
00:57:12,640 --> 00:57:15,080
Speaker 3: also just seven carries for eleven yards. He just seemed

1124
00:57:15,120 --> 00:57:18,120
Speaker 3: off really the entire day. I think the story overall

1125
00:57:18,320 --> 00:57:21,880
Speaker 3: going forward for the Ravens is the defense serious resurgence.

1126
00:57:21,920 --> 00:57:25,720
Speaker 3: So after allowing forty one, thirty eight, thirty seven, and

1127
00:57:25,920 --> 00:57:28,320
Speaker 3: forty four in the first five weeks, Baltimore is now

1128
00:57:28,400 --> 00:57:32,600
Speaker 3: allowed under twenty and six straight. So and the one

1129
00:57:32,680 --> 00:57:34,880
Speaker 3: note going forward in this we'll see what this looks

1130
00:57:34,920 --> 00:57:38,640
Speaker 3: like against Cincinnati, but they are one and ten to

1131
00:57:38,720 --> 00:57:42,360
Speaker 3: their first half team total over this year, really struggling

1132
00:57:42,440 --> 00:57:44,920
Speaker 3: outside the gates out of the gate, So we will

1133
00:57:44,920 --> 00:57:47,520
Speaker 3: see what that looks like for Cincinnati. Green Bay beats

1134
00:57:47,560 --> 00:57:50,400
Speaker 3: Minnesota twenty three to six, covering minus six and a

1135
00:57:50,400 --> 00:57:53,280
Speaker 3: half on the close, total goes under forty one and

1136
00:57:53,320 --> 00:57:56,200
Speaker 3: a half. The injuries here, at least on Minnesota side.

1137
00:57:56,600 --> 00:58:00,080
Speaker 3: Darisaw and Donovan Jackson hurt something to note there for

1138
00:58:00,160 --> 00:58:03,480
Speaker 3: the line, and Josh Jacobs missed the game. Manuel Wilson

1139
00:58:03,880 --> 00:58:07,360
Speaker 3: played pretty damn well, but Jacob's supposed to be back

1140
00:58:07,480 --> 00:58:11,000
Speaker 3: for the Detroit game. Green Bay breaks the to six

1141
00:58:11,120 --> 00:58:13,960
Speaker 3: ats mark as a four plus point favorite. Here get

1142
00:58:14,000 --> 00:58:16,600
Speaker 3: their first big cover and the only real cover in

1143
00:58:16,640 --> 00:58:19,960
Speaker 3: the early window for a big favorite. And this one

1144
00:58:20,000 --> 00:58:22,360
Speaker 3: and the last one here is yikes. JJ McCarthy. So

1145
00:58:22,920 --> 00:58:26,040
Speaker 3: here's a list of quarterbacks with two plus picks, five

1146
00:58:26,120 --> 00:58:29,000
Speaker 3: plus sacks, less than one hundred passing yards on fifteen

1147
00:58:29,040 --> 00:58:32,280
Speaker 3: plus attempts since twenty ten. And that's what McCarthy did today.

1148
00:58:32,320 --> 00:58:37,120
Speaker 3: So McCarthy, Bailey, Zappy, Clayton, Tune, and Josh Rosen not

1149
00:58:37,360 --> 00:58:41,640
Speaker 3: the list anybody wants to be on. And finally, Falcons

1150
00:58:41,680 --> 00:58:43,960
Speaker 3: win the game twenty four to ten, cover plus one

1151
00:58:44,000 --> 00:58:46,280
Speaker 3: and a half on the close. Yes they were an

1152
00:58:46,400 --> 00:58:50,160
Speaker 3: underdog Kirk Cousins to Tyler Schuck, but imagine telling someone

1153
00:58:50,240 --> 00:58:55,000
Speaker 3: that total under forty one. Just lol at this game

1154
00:58:55,120 --> 00:58:58,200
Speaker 3: is what I wrote. Atlanta starts three and out, then

1155
00:58:58,240 --> 00:59:01,000
Speaker 3: New Orleans goes two yard run to Kamara and then

1156
00:59:01,080 --> 00:59:04,640
Speaker 3: Chuck fumbles. Then Atlanta goes three and out, one yard

1157
00:59:05,000 --> 00:59:08,320
Speaker 3: field goal made three to nothing. Atlanta New Orleans never

1158
00:59:08,400 --> 00:59:11,240
Speaker 3: let again. That was it. That was literally the entire game.

1159
00:59:11,520 --> 00:59:15,160
Speaker 3: Those three drives to start Atlanta leeds and then that's it. Unbelievable.

1160
00:59:15,360 --> 00:59:17,640
Speaker 3: The only other thing that's hilarious about this game with

1161
00:59:17,800 --> 00:59:20,880
Speaker 3: the injury to Kamara, Taysom Hill has twenty four snaps

1162
00:59:20,880 --> 00:59:24,160
Speaker 3: on offense, ten rush attempts which led the team, five

1163
00:59:24,360 --> 00:59:28,720
Speaker 3: run routes, and two dropbacks. That was Taysom Hill the

1164
00:59:28,920 --> 00:59:31,800
Speaker 3: ultimate gadget game for him, which was just a ton

1165
00:59:31,840 --> 00:59:45,080
Speaker 3: of fun Monday night football time. So we will talk

1166
00:59:45,080 --> 00:59:48,400
Speaker 3: about this game right now. That spread, let's say seven

1167
00:59:48,440 --> 00:59:51,200
Speaker 3: and a half right now for San Francisco total sitting

1168
00:59:51,240 --> 00:59:54,040
Speaker 3: at forty nine and a half. I'll let you kind

1169
00:59:54,080 --> 00:59:56,560
Speaker 3: of kind of walk us in here, and then I'll

1170
00:59:56,640 --> 00:59:59,080
Speaker 3: toss you a few trends in what I like, What

1171
00:59:59,160 --> 00:59:59,680
Speaker 3: do you make here?

1172
01:00:00,240 --> 01:00:03,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think the Panthers, certainly a team we've talked

1173
01:00:03,560 --> 01:00:05,480
Speaker 2: a lot about over the last month, the team that

1174
01:00:06,240 --> 01:00:08,840
Speaker 2: I've been playing a lot of sides or even money

1175
01:00:08,880 --> 01:00:11,920
Speaker 2: lines with them. I think they're a bit outclassed here

1176
01:00:12,040 --> 01:00:13,880
Speaker 2: by the forty nine Ers. These are different way class

1177
01:00:13,920 --> 01:00:17,200
Speaker 2: teams for me. The Panthers twenty sixth in DVA entering

1178
01:00:17,200 --> 01:00:20,320
Speaker 2: the weekend, so bottom ten, bottom ten offense, and the

1179
01:00:20,440 --> 01:00:23,480
Speaker 2: defense on the season, the Niners are pretty good, Like

1180
01:00:23,560 --> 01:00:26,240
Speaker 2: even with all the injuries, they are sixth in offense

1181
01:00:26,880 --> 01:00:29,800
Speaker 2: and now everybody is back. I don't think Party has

1182
01:00:29,840 --> 01:00:32,360
Speaker 2: looked awesome so far, so maybe he still can work

1183
01:00:32,360 --> 01:00:34,640
Speaker 2: on his way back, but I think the forty nine

1184
01:00:34,680 --> 01:00:37,440
Speaker 2: ers should score here. No real reason to me that

1185
01:00:37,560 --> 01:00:40,480
Speaker 2: the Panthers can keep up with that offense. The one

1186
01:00:40,560 --> 01:00:43,640
Speaker 2: note I did have in Carolina's favor the Niners play

1187
01:00:44,040 --> 01:00:46,480
Speaker 2: the most light box defense in the league. That's just

1188
01:00:46,560 --> 01:00:49,560
Speaker 2: kind of what Robert Salad does. That's not the defense

1189
01:00:49,640 --> 01:00:53,280
Speaker 2: you want against the heavy ricodouble up the middle sort

1190
01:00:53,280 --> 01:00:56,480
Speaker 2: of run attack. So hopefully I'm assuming Salo will have

1191
01:00:56,520 --> 01:00:58,680
Speaker 2: a bit of a different plan for this one, considering

1192
01:00:58,760 --> 01:01:01,440
Speaker 2: that's really the main way Carolina can beat you. But

1193
01:01:02,240 --> 01:01:05,720
Speaker 2: in the comments crazy Shorts, I think Crazy Shorts has

1194
01:01:05,760 --> 01:01:08,120
Speaker 2: are right. This is a George Kittle game. That's my

1195
01:01:08,240 --> 01:01:11,520
Speaker 2: angle here. If you want a side, I think Niners

1196
01:01:11,600 --> 01:01:14,080
Speaker 2: teaser maybe is the way to start out your week.

1197
01:01:14,680 --> 01:01:17,000
Speaker 2: Get them just down to basically get a win, but

1198
01:01:17,040 --> 01:01:20,280
Speaker 2: otherwise I think it's a Kittle game. Panthers dead last

1199
01:01:20,400 --> 01:01:23,520
Speaker 2: DVA against tight ends, bottom five covering the middle of

1200
01:01:23,560 --> 01:01:26,280
Speaker 2: the field, fourth most yards two tight ends on the season,

1201
01:01:26,680 --> 01:01:31,040
Speaker 2: They've only faced so far five top fifteen fantasy tight ends.

1202
01:01:31,520 --> 01:01:34,000
Speaker 2: Three of the five had a touchdown. They averaged four

1203
01:01:34,040 --> 01:01:36,600
Speaker 2: point eight yards sixty one yards a game. And this

1204
01:01:36,760 --> 01:01:39,800
Speaker 2: is a team. Don't forget we keep playing tight ends

1205
01:01:39,840 --> 01:01:42,040
Speaker 2: against the Panthers because they're the second worst team last

1206
01:01:42,120 --> 01:01:44,960
Speaker 2: year also to tight ends and had the most touchdowns

1207
01:01:45,000 --> 01:01:48,360
Speaker 2: allowed as well. So Kittle touchdown four of his six

1208
01:01:48,480 --> 01:01:52,040
Speaker 2: games this year, seven of his last fifteen, so about

1209
01:01:52,080 --> 01:01:54,840
Speaker 2: half the time. He has really been Perty's go to guy.

1210
01:01:55,000 --> 01:01:58,840
Speaker 2: Especially plus one forty five for a Kittle touchdown two

1211
01:01:58,920 --> 01:02:02,400
Speaker 2: touchdowns is eleven to one. And then last fourteen games

1212
01:02:02,440 --> 01:02:05,160
Speaker 2: with Party is averaging seventy five yards. I'll play the

1213
01:02:05,240 --> 01:02:07,680
Speaker 2: yards as well, over fifty four and a half. So

1214
01:02:07,920 --> 01:02:10,640
Speaker 2: play the yards, play the touchdown, sprinkle a little bit

1215
01:02:10,640 --> 01:02:12,880
Speaker 2: on the two touchdowns. He's done that two of his

1216
01:02:13,000 --> 01:02:15,920
Speaker 2: last fourteen games with Party, and I just think it's

1217
01:02:15,920 --> 01:02:18,240
Speaker 2: a good night for mister Kittle. And we play a

1218
01:02:18,280 --> 01:02:20,280
Speaker 2: lot of tight ends this weekend, so add one more

1219
01:02:20,320 --> 01:02:21,040
Speaker 2: to the lineup here.

1220
01:02:21,560 --> 01:02:23,760
Speaker 3: Yeah, I like kill myself. I think it's the right move.

1221
01:02:24,360 --> 01:02:27,120
Speaker 3: The way I look at that is this, So Christ

1222
01:02:27,200 --> 01:02:30,360
Speaker 3: McCaffery currently sitting at minus three sixty to score a

1223
01:02:30,400 --> 01:02:33,160
Speaker 3: touchdown right now on DraftKings, which would be one of

1224
01:02:33,200 --> 01:02:35,720
Speaker 3: the largest prices we've seen in the last five years.

1225
01:02:35,800 --> 01:02:39,960
Speaker 3: Jonathan Taylor closed minus three eighty in Week eight this year,

1226
01:02:40,000 --> 01:02:41,919
Speaker 3: but other than that, that would be the highest price

1227
01:02:42,000 --> 01:02:44,920
Speaker 3: we've seen. With that, I think there's actually some interesting

1228
01:02:45,000 --> 01:02:47,560
Speaker 3: value on Brian Robinson. I was looking at rush attempts.

1229
01:02:48,400 --> 01:02:50,800
Speaker 3: I think a touchdown at like four point fifty I

1230
01:02:50,840 --> 01:02:54,480
Speaker 3: think I saw is something that intrigues me. The thing

1231
01:02:54,560 --> 01:02:56,400
Speaker 3: I really like in this game, and I said it

1232
01:02:56,440 --> 01:02:59,280
Speaker 3: earlier in the Favorites. I'll kind of repeat my thought process.

1233
01:02:59,640 --> 01:03:02,480
Speaker 3: But I like Teed McMillan, like you like Kittle. I

1234
01:03:02,600 --> 01:03:04,920
Speaker 3: think number one wide receiver against a bit of a

1235
01:03:05,000 --> 01:03:09,120
Speaker 3: weaker past defense, once you get past some of the

1236
01:03:09,480 --> 01:03:12,960
Speaker 3: moves that Sally will do on the pass rush, I

1237
01:03:13,000 --> 01:03:14,959
Speaker 3: think there's an ability to get beat there. I also

1238
01:03:15,080 --> 01:03:19,000
Speaker 3: think kind of I like Carolina, but I also see

1239
01:03:19,360 --> 01:03:22,720
Speaker 3: what you see in San Francisco and see Carolina probably trailing,

1240
01:03:23,120 --> 01:03:25,720
Speaker 3: maybe a bit of a back door, maybe a late comeback.

1241
01:03:26,000 --> 01:03:28,120
Speaker 3: So I think McMillan being the center of that makes

1242
01:03:28,120 --> 01:03:30,000
Speaker 3: a lot of sense. So if you want to be

1243
01:03:30,040 --> 01:03:33,240
Speaker 3: more conservative, I'm cool with fifty yards. Fifty plus you'll

1244
01:03:33,240 --> 01:03:35,480
Speaker 3: see a lot of books. I think sixty plus is

1245
01:03:35,560 --> 01:03:38,640
Speaker 3: just fine. I think the Kittle touchdown and Tech touchdown

1246
01:03:38,720 --> 01:03:41,320
Speaker 3: next year could be an interesting look. So that's the

1247
01:03:41,360 --> 01:03:44,040
Speaker 3: way I look at the game. I kind of do

1248
01:03:44,360 --> 01:03:48,520
Speaker 3: like Carolina, but again, I'd rather play some props because

1249
01:03:48,520 --> 01:03:50,840
Speaker 3: I think there's like the better ability in that one

1250
01:03:50,920 --> 01:03:53,080
Speaker 3: and some more value, So that is the way I

1251
01:03:53,280 --> 01:03:56,280
Speaker 3: look at it. A few trends in this one. Bryce

1252
01:03:56,320 --> 01:03:59,040
Speaker 3: Young started seven games in either the four PM window

1253
01:03:59,200 --> 01:04:01,960
Speaker 3: or night games with Carolina. He is zero and seven

1254
01:04:02,120 --> 01:04:04,520
Speaker 3: in those games, so this would be his first like

1255
01:04:05,040 --> 01:04:09,320
Speaker 3: prime time, big audience win, which is kind of intriguing.

1256
01:04:09,520 --> 01:04:12,040
Speaker 3: And I think the one you've seen everywhere since Christmas

1257
01:04:12,080 --> 01:04:15,040
Speaker 3: is twenty three forty nine Ers are one in fifteen

1258
01:04:15,320 --> 01:04:17,920
Speaker 3: against the spread after an outright win which we did

1259
01:04:18,040 --> 01:04:21,120
Speaker 3: just see crazy trend there, but off of a straight

1260
01:04:21,160 --> 01:04:23,480
Speaker 3: up win playing at home in San Francisco, they have

1261
01:04:23,640 --> 01:04:27,280
Speaker 3: lost twelve straight against the spread, so this is a

1262
01:04:27,400 --> 01:04:30,320
Speaker 3: big number there. Maybe you get a short San Francisco win,

1263
01:04:30,480 --> 01:04:32,480
Speaker 3: but that is the way I am looking at it.

1264
01:04:32,640 --> 01:04:34,360
Speaker 3: If you want to tell some of the bets on

1265
01:04:34,480 --> 01:04:36,520
Speaker 3: Monday Night football, make sure to look at the quick

1266
01:04:36,520 --> 01:04:38,760
Speaker 3: slip link in the podcast and video the description go

1267
01:04:38,840 --> 01:04:41,200
Speaker 3: to action ework dot com slash bet now. You can

1268
01:04:41,240 --> 01:04:43,920
Speaker 3: also find those quick slips in the live YouTube chat.

1269
01:04:44,080 --> 01:04:46,640
Speaker 3: If you're still hanging out with us, but Hot Read,

1270
01:04:46,720 --> 01:04:49,200
Speaker 3: bring it to us, Hot rap bo.

1271
01:04:49,360 --> 01:04:58,720
Speaker 2: Seven day, ice rights, ice cream. Yeah, two and l

1272
01:04:58,760 --> 01:05:01,360
Speaker 2: I'm the Hot Read first time all season. We've gone

1273
01:05:01,440 --> 01:05:03,640
Speaker 2: back to back two and zero week, So finally getting

1274
01:05:03,680 --> 01:05:06,600
Speaker 2: some hot streak going here on the fifty seven percent

1275
01:05:06,760 --> 01:05:09,600
Speaker 2: on the season, sixty three percent hit right now since

1276
01:05:09,640 --> 01:05:12,360
Speaker 2: the start of the twenty twenty three season. One of

1277
01:05:12,440 --> 01:05:15,280
Speaker 2: our picks we're running back. We went with the Browns

1278
01:05:15,560 --> 01:05:18,120
Speaker 2: game under last week. Let's start with the Browns game

1279
01:05:18,240 --> 01:05:21,520
Speaker 2: under this week, forty nine Ers at Browns under forty

1280
01:05:21,560 --> 01:05:23,520
Speaker 2: two and a half. I don't really get to say

1281
01:05:23,600 --> 01:05:26,040
Speaker 2: much about Shooter Sanders. Let's give the man some credit,

1282
01:05:26,440 --> 01:05:30,200
Speaker 2: the first Browns quarterback of this entire franchise era to

1283
01:05:30,280 --> 01:05:33,640
Speaker 2: get a debut win. But how impressive was it?

1284
01:05:33,960 --> 01:05:34,160
Speaker 3: Well?

1285
01:05:34,640 --> 01:05:37,080
Speaker 2: One sack, pretty good lot of rollouts. I thought that

1286
01:05:37,120 --> 01:05:40,240
Speaker 2: they protected him pretty well. Cleveland finished with twenty six

1287
01:05:40,320 --> 01:05:43,640
Speaker 2: percent success rate, though offensively, like that is an abysmal number.

1288
01:05:44,080 --> 01:05:46,120
Speaker 2: They get a long bomb that's one of the big

1289
01:05:46,240 --> 01:05:49,320
Speaker 2: chunks of sugar yards. They get his first touchdown on

1290
01:05:49,440 --> 01:05:52,800
Speaker 2: a screen pass that Dylan Samson just breaks sixty six yards.

1291
01:05:53,320 --> 01:05:56,800
Speaker 2: Outside of those two plays, nine of eighteen ninety one yards, Like,

1292
01:05:56,880 --> 01:06:00,680
Speaker 2: that's not a real quarterback line, twenty seven less plays

1293
01:06:00,760 --> 01:06:04,200
Speaker 2: than the Raiders. They got one touchdown off a broken screen,

1294
01:06:04,800 --> 01:06:07,560
Speaker 2: one touchdown basically like five yards or something after a

1295
01:06:07,640 --> 01:06:11,760
Speaker 2: long punt return. Credit where it's due. Brown's quarterbacks don't win,

1296
01:06:12,240 --> 01:06:14,480
Speaker 2: But I'm not exactly gonna be like, Okay, yes, look,

1297
01:06:14,520 --> 01:06:16,160
Speaker 2: the Browns will figure it out, and I have to

1298
01:06:16,240 --> 01:06:18,640
Speaker 2: assume it's probably shoulder again in this game. I think

1299
01:06:18,680 --> 01:06:21,240
Speaker 2: fans would revolt if he doesn't start again after winning

1300
01:06:21,280 --> 01:06:26,120
Speaker 2: the first game. So Brown's defense awesome. Ten sacks today,

1301
01:06:26,560 --> 01:06:29,440
Speaker 2: Miles Garrett looks certainly on his way to the sack record,

1302
01:06:29,800 --> 01:06:32,640
Speaker 2: spoiling my Micah Parsons Defensive Player of the Year tickets.

1303
01:06:33,080 --> 01:06:35,640
Speaker 2: No questioning. The Browns defense is even better at home,

1304
01:06:36,160 --> 01:06:39,280
Speaker 2: and I think a pretty good matchup here, really good,

1305
01:06:39,720 --> 01:06:41,240
Speaker 2: one of the best in the league defending mill of

1306
01:06:41,320 --> 01:06:44,000
Speaker 2: the field, that's where Kyle Shanahan wants to live in attack,

1307
01:06:44,560 --> 01:06:46,880
Speaker 2: and I think lots of short passes they defend that

1308
01:06:47,000 --> 01:06:50,480
Speaker 2: really well as well. So just a good matchup. And

1309
01:06:51,240 --> 01:06:53,400
Speaker 2: we keep talking about I've said a lot how bad

1310
01:06:53,480 --> 01:06:56,040
Speaker 2: the Niners defense is, but if you have to be

1311
01:06:56,120 --> 01:06:58,440
Speaker 2: a bad defense, you may as well be playing the Browns,

1312
01:06:58,480 --> 01:07:00,720
Speaker 2: who are the worst offense in the league by DVOA.

1313
01:07:01,400 --> 01:07:06,040
Speaker 2: And they also run more twenty one personnel too than anybody,

1314
01:07:06,600 --> 01:07:09,480
Speaker 2: and the Niners have been top five EPA per play

1315
01:07:09,640 --> 01:07:12,360
Speaker 2: defending that. So I just think it's not going to

1316
01:07:12,440 --> 01:07:17,040
Speaker 2: be a great matchup on either direction. And short week

1317
01:07:17,160 --> 01:07:19,840
Speaker 2: for the Niners obviously, we just talked about them Monday night.

1318
01:07:20,120 --> 01:07:22,160
Speaker 2: They're into the bye week after this, so this kind

1319
01:07:22,200 --> 01:07:25,600
Speaker 2: of just reeks of ugly survive in advanced sort of game.

1320
01:07:26,120 --> 01:07:29,840
Speaker 2: Browns have games this season of thirty three, twenty three,

1321
01:07:30,000 --> 01:07:33,080
Speaker 2: thirty eight, thirty two, thirty seven, and thirty four points,

1322
01:07:33,200 --> 01:07:36,160
Speaker 2: So anything in that range we're gonna feel happy with

1323
01:07:36,200 --> 01:07:39,080
Speaker 2: her under Since the start of last season when it's

1324
01:07:39,200 --> 01:07:43,320
Speaker 2: not Jamis quarterbacking for the Browns fifteen points a game

1325
01:07:43,720 --> 01:07:46,800
Speaker 2: in twenty one games. So under forty two and a half,

1326
01:07:47,280 --> 01:07:49,560
Speaker 2: there's already some forty one and a half. Some forty

1327
01:07:49,600 --> 01:07:51,640
Speaker 2: and a half's out there. I think this number is

1328
01:07:51,680 --> 01:07:54,200
Speaker 2: going to slowly fade that way, and when it does,

1329
01:07:54,280 --> 01:07:55,760
Speaker 2: that usually is a good sign for us to have

1330
01:07:55,840 --> 01:08:00,200
Speaker 2: played as well. So under on the Browns and Niners, you.

1331
01:08:00,200 --> 01:08:02,120
Speaker 3: Took it out, you took exactly what I was going

1332
01:08:02,200 --> 01:08:04,720
Speaker 3: to say, down to forty one and a half. I

1333
01:08:04,760 --> 01:08:07,120
Speaker 3: would get on that as quickly as possible. And listen

1334
01:08:07,480 --> 01:08:12,040
Speaker 3: Brown's home games as well. That defense is ridiculous and stellar.

1335
01:08:12,120 --> 01:08:15,280
Speaker 3: And again the San Francisco short week, I feel it

1336
01:08:15,360 --> 01:08:17,880
Speaker 3: can also kind of come as your advantage here. All right,

1337
01:08:17,920 --> 01:08:18,679
Speaker 3: what's your second pick?

1338
01:08:19,360 --> 01:08:21,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, another under. We're going to the one that we're

1339
01:08:21,960 --> 01:08:26,040
Speaker 2: stuck with. Apparently on Sunday Night next week, Broncos commanders

1340
01:08:26,200 --> 01:08:28,439
Speaker 2: under forty three and a half. They had a chance

1341
01:08:28,520 --> 01:08:30,679
Speaker 2: to flex this one out and they decided, now let's

1342
01:08:30,760 --> 01:08:32,680
Speaker 2: let's keep it in there. So now we got to

1343
01:08:32,760 --> 01:08:34,400
Speaker 2: lead our show with it next week, we may as

1344
01:08:34,439 --> 01:08:36,760
Speaker 2: well grab a hot read on it. So neither one

1345
01:08:36,760 --> 01:08:39,200
Speaker 2: of these teams played today, So not our usual hot read,

1346
01:08:39,600 --> 01:08:42,360
Speaker 2: but neither of them playing, if you've been following, is

1347
01:08:42,400 --> 01:08:45,200
Speaker 2: our first clue toward the under. Both teams coming off

1348
01:08:45,240 --> 01:08:48,320
Speaker 2: of bye week total over forty twenty nine seventeen and

1349
01:08:48,439 --> 01:08:51,880
Speaker 2: one to the under sixty three percent, and primetime non

1350
01:08:51,960 --> 01:08:55,760
Speaker 2: Thursday primetime unders since twenty nineteen sixty one percent to

1351
01:08:55,840 --> 01:08:58,760
Speaker 2: the under sixty percent this year, so that trend is

1352
01:08:58,840 --> 01:09:02,160
Speaker 2: still continuing. Look half of the side. I probably out

1353
01:09:02,200 --> 01:09:05,479
Speaker 2: to sell you too hard. Washington's offense is struggling, bottom

1354
01:09:05,560 --> 01:09:09,360
Speaker 2: ten offense last six weeks. Run pass, it's all going bad.

1355
01:09:09,479 --> 01:09:12,439
Speaker 2: So we know all get Denver's defenses. Washington is all

1356
01:09:12,520 --> 01:09:14,360
Speaker 2: banged up. I don't have to tell you too much

1357
01:09:14,400 --> 01:09:17,559
Speaker 2: on that side. The other side that's scarier because Washington's

1358
01:09:17,560 --> 01:09:21,799
Speaker 2: defense has not been good, but Denver and bow Knicks

1359
01:09:21,920 --> 01:09:24,519
Speaker 2: have not moved the ball well, twenty percent success rate

1360
01:09:24,560 --> 01:09:27,519
Speaker 2: on series their first two drives. That's the scripted stuff

1361
01:09:27,520 --> 01:09:30,519
Speaker 2: that's worse than the league. And now you gave Dan

1362
01:09:30,720 --> 01:09:33,599
Speaker 2: Quinn a whole extra week to prepare for what's already

1363
01:09:33,600 --> 01:09:37,839
Speaker 2: been this vanilla, predictable, boring offense. Out of Denver, Washington

1364
01:09:38,360 --> 01:09:41,320
Speaker 2: thirty second on non blitzing. That's not what dan Quinn

1365
01:09:41,400 --> 01:09:44,960
Speaker 2: does well. Denver only twenty fifth EPA for play attacking that,

1366
01:09:45,320 --> 01:09:47,200
Speaker 2: so I don't think they can take advantage of that weakness.

1367
01:09:47,640 --> 01:09:50,800
Speaker 2: And Washington twenty eighth and success rate, well, Denver's only

1368
01:09:50,880 --> 01:09:54,000
Speaker 2: twenty six offensively in success rate, so I don't see

1369
01:09:54,080 --> 01:09:57,320
Speaker 2: Denver's offense really as the sort that can put up

1370
01:09:57,360 --> 01:09:59,240
Speaker 2: a big number on Washington.

1371
01:09:59,800 --> 01:09:59,960
Speaker 3: Washing.

1372
01:10:00,000 --> 01:10:02,439
Speaker 2: Washington has allowed in five games this year against the

1373
01:10:02,479 --> 01:10:05,759
Speaker 2: top ten defense or offense thirty six point two points

1374
01:10:05,800 --> 01:10:08,280
Speaker 2: a game, so that's the scare. But in the rest

1375
01:10:08,320 --> 01:10:12,120
Speaker 2: of their games nineteen point two, so seventeen points a

1376
01:10:12,200 --> 01:10:14,639
Speaker 2: game more when they're facing a top ten offense, which,

1377
01:10:14,760 --> 01:10:16,680
Speaker 2: let me assure you, Denver is not.

1378
01:10:17,040 --> 01:10:17,080
Speaker 3: So.

1379
01:10:17,439 --> 01:10:20,760
Speaker 2: Denver eight and three to the under tied for best

1380
01:10:20,840 --> 01:10:24,439
Speaker 2: in the NFL, averaging just under forty one points a game.

1381
01:10:24,479 --> 01:10:27,599
Speaker 2: The Broncos are on the season, and the three overs

1382
01:10:28,000 --> 01:10:30,639
Speaker 2: if you take those out, their other games are averaging

1383
01:10:30,760 --> 01:10:33,519
Speaker 2: under thirty three a game total on the season, So

1384
01:10:34,000 --> 01:10:36,360
Speaker 2: we're at forty three and a half. Pretty much every

1385
01:10:36,400 --> 01:10:39,280
Speaker 2: book has that number. I think it will start to

1386
01:10:39,320 --> 01:10:43,000
Speaker 2: go down, and again, a total between thirty nine and

1387
01:10:43,160 --> 01:10:45,599
Speaker 2: forty four. This trend works for both of these picks.

1388
01:10:46,000 --> 01:10:48,519
Speaker 2: That drops a point to four points, which I think

1389
01:10:48,600 --> 01:10:50,960
Speaker 2: is kind of the direction this will go. Since twenty

1390
01:10:51,040 --> 01:10:54,639
Speaker 2: seventeen on a huge sample, fifty four point four percent

1391
01:10:54,760 --> 01:10:57,680
Speaker 2: to the under. I think it's a snoozer. I think

1392
01:10:57,720 --> 01:11:00,439
Speaker 2: we're probably going to get back to back Sunday night here,

1393
01:11:00,840 --> 01:11:02,479
Speaker 2: but we're gonna have to watch it and leave the

1394
01:11:02,520 --> 01:11:04,200
Speaker 2: show at the next week. We may as well grab

1395
01:11:04,280 --> 01:11:06,599
Speaker 2: the under forty three and a half now and lock

1396
01:11:06,680 --> 01:11:06,840
Speaker 2: it in.

1397
01:11:07,640 --> 01:11:09,719
Speaker 3: I just want to say I love our audience because

1398
01:11:09,880 --> 01:11:12,720
Speaker 3: as I am listening to you talk, the board is

1399
01:11:12,880 --> 01:11:16,040
Speaker 3: lighting up on Action Labs right now with the Browns

1400
01:11:16,120 --> 01:11:18,799
Speaker 3: going down to forty and a half. So uh, hopefully

1401
01:11:18,840 --> 01:11:26,880
Speaker 3: everyone can get that as quickly as possible. That's off Thanga,

1402
01:11:33,439 --> 01:11:35,840
Speaker 3: all right. Before we wrap up, let's hear from Patrick

1403
01:11:35,880 --> 01:11:38,920
Speaker 3: Everson from Vegas Insiders and how things looked in Las Vegas.

1404
01:11:39,200 --> 01:11:43,080
Speaker 1: Patrick Everson here for Vegas Insider, recapping the weekend that

1405
01:11:43,400 --> 01:11:46,880
Speaker 1: was in the NFL, and it was really a pretty

1406
01:11:46,880 --> 01:11:50,800
Speaker 1: wild week to begin with. Granted, the Houston Texans were

1407
01:11:50,880 --> 01:11:53,960
Speaker 1: not a huge underdog, but the Buffalo Bills were expected

1408
01:11:54,000 --> 01:11:56,840
Speaker 1: to win that Thursday night game, and the Texans, with

1409
01:11:57,000 --> 01:12:00,479
Speaker 1: that really rock solid defense, get the out right win

1410
01:12:00,680 --> 01:12:06,080
Speaker 1: as a home dog, and you thought it might set

1411
01:12:06,120 --> 01:12:08,439
Speaker 1: the tone for the rest of Week twelve, the Week

1412
01:12:08,479 --> 01:12:12,600
Speaker 1: twelve odds. But it didn't quite happen that way. It

1413
01:12:12,680 --> 01:12:14,880
Speaker 1: almost happened that way. It had a chance to happen

1414
01:12:14,960 --> 01:12:18,360
Speaker 1: that way. You had the Detroit Lions falling well behind

1415
01:12:18,640 --> 01:12:21,759
Speaker 1: as fourteen point home favorites against the New York Giants.

1416
01:12:22,360 --> 01:12:25,280
Speaker 1: You had the Kansas City Chiefs, not a huge favorite

1417
01:12:25,320 --> 01:12:27,160
Speaker 1: against the Colts, but four to four and a half

1418
01:12:27,240 --> 01:12:29,479
Speaker 1: point favorite against the Colts. The Colt's been pretty good

1419
01:12:29,520 --> 01:12:32,680
Speaker 1: this season, Chiefs were at home. Both those teams, the

1420
01:12:33,040 --> 01:12:37,400
Speaker 1: Chiefs and the Lions, could easily have lost on Sunday.

1421
01:12:38,280 --> 01:12:41,439
Speaker 1: Neither of them led for a single second of regulation,

1422
01:12:42,240 --> 01:12:46,160
Speaker 1: both of them forced overtime on late or final seconds

1423
01:12:46,240 --> 01:12:48,839
Speaker 1: field goals, and then both of them won in overtime.

1424
01:12:49,640 --> 01:12:53,280
Speaker 1: So neither of them covered, and neither did several other

1425
01:12:53,640 --> 01:12:58,680
Speaker 1: favorites that were key in Week twelve, including the Patriots,

1426
01:12:58,800 --> 01:13:01,160
Speaker 1: did not cover but did win the game, Seahawks did

1427
01:13:01,240 --> 01:13:05,000
Speaker 1: not cover but did win the game. Ravens, huge favorites,

1428
01:13:05,680 --> 01:13:08,960
Speaker 1: almost covered but did not still won the game. So

1429
01:13:09,960 --> 01:13:12,599
Speaker 1: the books did okay if you're looking at straight bets

1430
01:13:12,640 --> 01:13:16,200
Speaker 1: on the spread. But oftentimes, as we talk about regularly,

1431
01:13:16,640 --> 01:13:19,679
Speaker 1: these moneyline parlays are really what the public betting masses

1432
01:13:19,680 --> 01:13:21,240
Speaker 1: are into. They're into a couple of things. They're into

1433
01:13:21,280 --> 01:13:23,639
Speaker 1: money line parlays, and they love these same game parlays

1434
01:13:23,840 --> 01:13:25,719
Speaker 1: where they're trying to bet a lot of like anytime

1435
01:13:25,800 --> 01:13:28,519
Speaker 1: touchdown scores, to bet a little to win a lot,

1436
01:13:28,960 --> 01:13:31,080
Speaker 1: But they like the money line parlays. And generally speaking,

1437
01:13:31,120 --> 01:13:33,200
Speaker 1: if the books can't beat the money line parlays, then

1438
01:13:33,240 --> 01:13:36,360
Speaker 1: the public betting masses are going to have a decent day.

1439
01:13:37,040 --> 01:13:41,400
Speaker 1: And even though a few underdogs got through on the

1440
01:13:41,640 --> 01:13:45,400
Speaker 1: Thursday night, like I noted with Houston and on Sunday

1441
01:13:45,920 --> 01:13:50,479
Speaker 1: with Cleveland and Atlanta getting through, they were outright dogs

1442
01:13:50,520 --> 01:13:54,120
Speaker 1: that won. They were the wrong, outright dogs. They were

1443
01:13:54,160 --> 01:13:57,080
Speaker 1: not the dogs that well. They were the wrong right

1444
01:13:57,120 --> 01:13:59,320
Speaker 1: dogs for the books. They were fine for all of

1445
01:13:59,439 --> 01:14:01,960
Speaker 1: us on this side of the counter. The public betting masses,

1446
01:14:02,920 --> 01:14:05,640
Speaker 1: the you know, we were much more interested in the

1447
01:14:05,720 --> 01:14:09,520
Speaker 1: public was much more interested in the Lions, the Patriots,

1448
01:14:09,840 --> 01:14:14,120
Speaker 1: the Chiefs, the Seahawks, the Ravens and all of them won.

1449
01:14:14,240 --> 01:14:16,519
Speaker 1: So that kept all the money line parlays alive, and

1450
01:14:16,600 --> 01:14:18,960
Speaker 1: a lot of those moneyline parlays ran to the Los

1451
01:14:19,000 --> 01:14:23,280
Speaker 1: Angeles Rams on Sunday night and the Rams absolutely throttled

1452
01:14:23,640 --> 01:14:26,360
Speaker 1: the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I had one odds maker tell

1453
01:14:26,439 --> 01:14:30,600
Speaker 1: me just very straightforward that that was going to be

1454
01:14:30,680 --> 01:14:34,960
Speaker 1: a massive game tonight with a lot of exposure going

1455
01:14:35,080 --> 01:14:37,160
Speaker 1: to the to the Rams, a lot of exposure on

1456
01:14:37,200 --> 01:14:40,800
Speaker 1: the Rams, and because the Rams rolled and had all

1457
01:14:40,840 --> 01:14:44,080
Speaker 1: these moneyline parlays rolling into them, it was It was

1458
01:14:44,160 --> 01:14:48,760
Speaker 1: definitely a generally a winning day for the betters, or

1459
01:14:49,479 --> 01:14:51,679
Speaker 1: you know, you know, perhaps a book or two broke

1460
01:14:51,760 --> 01:14:53,840
Speaker 1: even maybe made a little, but generally speaking, the betters

1461
01:14:53,880 --> 01:14:57,519
Speaker 1: did really well, at least the public betters did. One

1462
01:14:57,560 --> 01:14:59,519
Speaker 1: of the underdogs that did get through. The other underdog

1463
01:15:00,120 --> 01:15:03,439
Speaker 1: through was Dallas, and Dallas was a really trendy underdog,

1464
01:15:03,680 --> 01:15:07,960
Speaker 1: trendy home underdog against the Philadelphia Eagles. Dallas gets into

1465
01:15:08,000 --> 01:15:10,639
Speaker 1: a twenty one zero hole and comes back and wins

1466
01:15:10,720 --> 01:15:13,360
Speaker 1: the game twenty four to twenty one on a final

1467
01:15:13,400 --> 01:15:15,560
Speaker 1: second field goal. Kind of a theme here, but in

1468
01:15:15,640 --> 01:15:18,080
Speaker 1: this case, Dallas was an underdog, but again Dallas a

1469
01:15:18,200 --> 01:15:22,479
Speaker 1: trendy underdog, so that fell in Better's favors favor as well.

1470
01:15:23,600 --> 01:15:25,000
Speaker 1: At a couple of different books there was a couple

1471
01:15:25,000 --> 01:15:27,759
Speaker 1: of different odds makers said we really really need Philly

1472
01:15:28,200 --> 01:15:30,200
Speaker 1: to win by four or more, and in fact once

1473
01:15:30,200 --> 01:15:33,680
Speaker 1: said this Philly game was a huge, huge game, and

1474
01:15:33,960 --> 01:15:36,280
Speaker 1: it created a lot of the exposure that went to

1475
01:15:36,920 --> 01:15:40,519
Speaker 1: the Rams on the Sunday night game. So again, generally

1476
01:15:40,600 --> 01:15:43,599
Speaker 1: it looks like a decent week for the public betting masses,

1477
01:15:43,720 --> 01:15:48,080
Speaker 1: the overwhelming majority of people who place wagers on our

1478
01:15:48,160 --> 01:15:50,720
Speaker 1: side of the counter, and not so good at least

1479
01:15:50,840 --> 01:15:53,479
Speaker 1: not so good a Sunday for the sports books, which

1480
01:15:53,520 --> 01:15:56,920
Speaker 1: we'll take. We certainly want to see the betters do well.

1481
01:15:57,720 --> 01:16:01,160
Speaker 1: Had one honts makers say, between the Cowboys game and

1482
01:16:01,720 --> 01:16:04,120
Speaker 1: the Lions managing to scratch how to win and the

1483
01:16:04,160 --> 01:16:06,639
Speaker 1: Chiefs managed to scratch how to win, it was tough.

1484
01:16:07,120 --> 01:16:09,200
Speaker 1: But I'll tell you one more game that was a

1485
01:16:09,320 --> 01:16:14,080
Speaker 1: real surprise, an underdog that was trendy and a crummy

1486
01:16:14,200 --> 01:16:19,120
Speaker 1: underdog at that playing another crummy team, Browns against the Raiders.

1487
01:16:19,600 --> 01:16:23,640
Speaker 1: The Browns were extremely popular at national books and at

1488
01:16:23,680 --> 01:16:26,519
Speaker 1: books here in Las Vegas. Everybody was on the Browns.

1489
01:16:27,840 --> 01:16:30,280
Speaker 1: There may have been something to them wanting to jump

1490
01:16:30,360 --> 01:16:32,960
Speaker 1: on the shaduor Sanders train, as that rookie QB and

1491
01:16:33,000 --> 01:16:35,200
Speaker 1: the son of Dion Sanders, made his first NFL start.

1492
01:16:36,360 --> 01:16:39,160
Speaker 1: One Onsbaker told me he couldn't believe that people would

1493
01:16:39,160 --> 01:16:41,240
Speaker 1: be lining up to bet shaduor Sanders after what they

1494
01:16:41,280 --> 01:16:43,400
Speaker 1: saw last week, and he thinks it was probably more

1495
01:16:43,400 --> 01:16:45,599
Speaker 1: attributable to the Raiders being as bad as they are,

1496
01:16:45,720 --> 01:16:48,519
Speaker 1: which they are, They're awful, and the Browns having a

1497
01:16:48,680 --> 01:16:50,600
Speaker 1: really good defense even though they have not had a

1498
01:16:50,640 --> 01:16:53,600
Speaker 1: good season overall. But regardless of why betters were on

1499
01:16:53,640 --> 01:16:55,599
Speaker 1: the Browns, they were on the Browns, and the Browns

1500
01:16:55,680 --> 01:16:58,519
Speaker 1: got there twenty four to ten, winning here in Las Vegas,

1501
01:16:58,560 --> 01:17:00,679
Speaker 1: a couple of miles away from my house Agent Stadium,

1502
01:17:00,760 --> 01:17:03,559
Speaker 1: So that was a decision that went to public betting

1503
01:17:03,640 --> 01:17:07,320
Speaker 1: masses as well. So again overall reiterating good day for

1504
01:17:07,400 --> 01:17:10,080
Speaker 1: the public betting masses generally at sportsbooks in Vegas and

1505
01:17:10,160 --> 01:17:13,800
Speaker 1: across the country, hitting specifically on some of the action

1506
01:17:13,920 --> 01:17:18,640
Speaker 1: that took place at Draft Kings against the spread. The

1507
01:17:18,840 --> 01:17:21,479
Speaker 1: teams that were most bet by ticket count and by

1508
01:17:21,600 --> 01:17:25,800
Speaker 1: money by ticket count, Lions, Seahawks, Patriots. None of those

1509
01:17:25,840 --> 01:17:28,880
Speaker 1: three covered, but again money Lion parlays all lived on

1510
01:17:30,880 --> 01:17:34,280
Speaker 1: spread money. Patriots, Lions, Seahawks just the same teams in

1511
01:17:34,360 --> 01:17:38,479
Speaker 1: a different order. Again, none of those teams covered. Money

1512
01:17:38,520 --> 01:17:40,640
Speaker 1: line underdogs always kind of interesting to just see how

1513
01:17:40,720 --> 01:17:43,120
Speaker 1: those do the popular money line underdogs. The most popular

1514
01:17:43,160 --> 01:17:47,400
Speaker 1: money line underdogs at draft Kings on this NFL Week

1515
01:17:47,640 --> 01:17:52,280
Speaker 1: twelve Sunday were the Colts, Falcons, and Browns by ticket count,

1516
01:17:52,479 --> 01:17:55,160
Speaker 1: and the Colts darn near beat the Cheese probably perhaps

1517
01:17:55,200 --> 01:17:58,200
Speaker 1: should have. The Falcons beat the Saints, and the Browns,

1518
01:17:58,240 --> 01:17:59,920
Speaker 1: as I noted, beat the Raiders, so two of those

1519
01:18:00,040 --> 01:18:01,599
Speaker 1: three to one and all three of them could have won.

1520
01:18:02,520 --> 01:18:05,439
Speaker 1: And the most bet money line underdogs by cash flow

1521
01:18:06,040 --> 01:18:09,880
Speaker 1: were the Colts, Steelers and Browns. And the Steelers had

1522
01:18:09,880 --> 01:18:13,360
Speaker 1: a pretty good game against the Bears but did not

1523
01:18:13,479 --> 01:18:16,720
Speaker 1: get there, but the Browns went in both cases. They

1524
01:18:16,760 --> 01:18:18,479
Speaker 1: were taking fair amount of money on the Browns and

1525
01:18:18,520 --> 01:18:19,840
Speaker 1: a fair amount of tickets on the Browns on the

1526
01:18:19,880 --> 01:18:22,280
Speaker 1: money line, and they get there in both cases. That's

1527
01:18:22,360 --> 01:18:25,040
Speaker 1: two and a half three point underdog depending on where

1528
01:18:25,080 --> 01:18:28,559
Speaker 1: you shopped. Now, quick look ahead to the Monday night game,

1529
01:18:28,640 --> 01:18:32,879
Speaker 1: which again it's not the most exhilarating matchup Panthers against

1530
01:18:33,080 --> 01:18:38,320
Speaker 1: the forty Niners. But the Panthers, I believe for the

1531
01:18:38,360 --> 01:18:41,000
Speaker 1: win and maybe they already are could be on top

1532
01:18:41,040 --> 01:18:44,840
Speaker 1: of the NFC South. And as I noted a little

1533
01:18:44,880 --> 01:18:48,080
Speaker 1: bit earlier in this discussion, the Niners are probably gonna

1534
01:18:48,120 --> 01:18:50,040
Speaker 1: have a ton of Monday line parlays rolling to them

1535
01:18:50,080 --> 01:18:51,880
Speaker 1: on Monday night based on the way the results went

1536
01:18:51,920 --> 01:18:55,000
Speaker 1: on Sunday. Right now at Draft Kings, as we look

1537
01:18:55,120 --> 01:18:57,840
Speaker 1: going to Monday, you've on the spread, You've got the

1538
01:18:57,920 --> 01:19:00,559
Speaker 1: Niners minus seven and a half taking fifth three percent

1539
01:19:00,600 --> 01:19:02,800
Speaker 1: of bets while the Panthers are actually getting fifty nine

1540
01:19:03,200 --> 01:19:06,479
Speaker 1: percent of money on the spread. And then just a

1541
01:19:06,560 --> 01:19:09,960
Speaker 1: quick peek Thanksgiving Day. This whole week, a lot of

1542
01:19:10,040 --> 01:19:13,120
Speaker 1: early you know, three games Thanksgiving, one on Black Friday

1543
01:19:13,120 --> 01:19:14,759
Speaker 1: and then the rest of the slate Sunday and Monday.

1544
01:19:15,560 --> 01:19:18,760
Speaker 1: A quick early look Packers Lions kicks off that day

1545
01:19:18,960 --> 01:19:22,960
Speaker 1: and early action limited action, I'm sure, but really heavy

1546
01:19:23,040 --> 01:19:25,439
Speaker 1: to the Detroit Lions. Eighty percent of early tickets, eighty

1547
01:19:25,479 --> 01:19:29,639
Speaker 1: four percent of early money at DraftKings, and also early

1548
01:19:29,720 --> 01:19:31,679
Speaker 1: they're on the Cowboys a little bit against the Chiefs

1549
01:19:31,720 --> 01:19:35,160
Speaker 1: on Thanksgiving Day and they're on the Bengals pretty good

1550
01:19:35,240 --> 01:19:38,599
Speaker 1: early in the Thursday night game the Thanksgiving Night game

1551
01:19:39,040 --> 01:19:41,760
Speaker 1: against the Baltimore Ravens. For a bunch more, head over

1552
01:19:41,800 --> 01:19:44,919
Speaker 1: to Vegas Insider. Check out my complete NFL Week thirteen

1553
01:19:45,080 --> 01:19:47,679
Speaker 1: opening odds in Action Report, and again thanks for having

1554
01:19:47,720 --> 01:19:49,080
Speaker 1: me on and we'll talk to you next week.

1555
01:19:49,240 --> 01:19:52,080
Speaker 3: All right, that'll do it. Here on the Actionary Podcast

1556
01:19:52,120 --> 01:19:55,280
Speaker 3: for our NFL Week twelve recap episode presented by DraftKings,

1557
01:19:55,560 --> 01:19:57,519
Speaker 3: give us a like on the YouTube video before you

1558
01:19:57,840 --> 01:20:00,880
Speaker 3: take off. We really appreciate it. If you check out

1559
01:20:00,960 --> 01:20:04,120
Speaker 3: our new AI quick Slipbot on x just tag playbook

1560
01:20:04,400 --> 01:20:06,760
Speaker 3: at playbook tell us to grab whatever bets you're looking

1561
01:20:06,800 --> 01:20:09,000
Speaker 3: for and it'll create a quick slip link for you

1562
01:20:09,240 --> 01:20:11,720
Speaker 3: in a matter of seconds. We will be back for

1563
01:20:11,880 --> 01:20:15,160
Speaker 3: Action Island before Monday Night's game right here on Action

1564
01:20:15,240 --> 01:20:17,960
Speaker 3: Ever two two page, as well as more best bets

1565
01:20:18,040 --> 01:20:21,479
Speaker 3: from Brandon six back from Ray Bond and Stuck Anytime

1566
01:20:21,560 --> 01:20:25,680
Speaker 3: Touchdowns and more on the podcast Speed next Week for Thanksgiving,

1567
01:20:25,960 --> 01:20:27,960
Speaker 3: Black Friday and more and more and more and more.

1568
01:20:28,280 --> 01:20:30,599
Speaker 3: Thank you for listening. Good luck with all your bets.

1569
01:20:31,080 --> 01:20:31,799
Speaker 3: Bone shops.

1570
01:20:37,840 --> 01:20:51,880
Speaker 1: Thanks Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you

1571
01:20:52,160 --> 01:20:54,920
Speaker 1: or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help

1572
01:20:55,000 --> 01:20:57,679
Speaker 1: is available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred

1573
01:20:57,720 --> 01:20:58,160
Speaker 1: Gambler