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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays

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Speaker 2: at seven am Eastern on applecar Player, Android Auto with

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Speaker 3: Unfair to go to Claudia Sim here to continue this dialogue.

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Speaker 3: We will, but for doctor Sam, she of course professionally

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Speaker 3: digests to voluminous reports as well. Claudia, Where when I

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Speaker 3: say go beneath the headline data, where does Claudia Sam

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Speaker 3: go beneath the headline data?

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Speaker 4: Well, I mean the first place that I went to look,

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Speaker 4: you know, seeing the unemployment rate tickup, which is a tick,

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Speaker 4: not anything to get too worked up about, but just

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Speaker 4: to see what was happening with labor force participation if

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Speaker 4: that can kind of be the good reason to explain

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Speaker 4: it away. And that doesn't that doesn't seem to be

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Speaker 4: what's going on there, So that is something to keep

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Speaker 4: an eye on. We've seen that employment really like flatten out,

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Speaker 4: so it's a concern. But in general, I mean this

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Speaker 4: is there's I don't know, like it doesn't seem like

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Speaker 4: a lot to react to here.

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Speaker 3: So you sound like somebody on the second floor the

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Speaker 3: Echos Building.

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Speaker 5: You know, you get to go into the room.

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Speaker 3: Once a year if you're a twenty eight year old

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Speaker 3: PhD newly minted at the Echoes Building. What are you

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Speaker 3: telling governor's presidents and the chairman.

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Speaker 4: Well, if they were consensus, they can go in and

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Speaker 4: say they nailed their forecast. I mean really like getting

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Speaker 4: something hard like payrolls and going through the hurricanes and

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Speaker 4: the strike. It's this is really more of an art

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Speaker 4: than a science. And what they are trying to pull

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Speaker 4: out of here is what is that underlying pace? Like

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Speaker 4: what's the three month change? How are things going? And

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Speaker 4: really it looks like we're kind of we're kind of

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Speaker 4: back where we were before hurricanes. So like it seems

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Speaker 4: to be giving a pretty consistent story of the slowing,

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Speaker 4: but nothing like real shocking.

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Speaker 6: Here.

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Speaker 3: See how doctor Sam goes to the three month moving average.

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Speaker 5: I mentioned that an hour ago.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, Paul, that's that's the way we roll.

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Speaker 6: That's the way we roll.

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Speaker 7: And Tom, I'll just note the revisions from last month.

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Speaker 7: We were twelve thousand was the reported number, revised up

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Speaker 7: to thirty six thousand. Just to put that out there,

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Speaker 7: doctor Salm here. So if I'm the Federal Reserve, I

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Speaker 7: have to feel.

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Speaker 6: Like I'm doing I'm doing my job.

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Speaker 7: I might even pat myself on the bats here, you know.

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Speaker 6: So do I cut rates in December? Then just wait?

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Speaker 4: I think they've you know, they've been doing this kind

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Speaker 4: of look ahead and this is very I'm sure consistent

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Speaker 4: with where they thought the data were going to end

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Speaker 4: up today largely, and so they're on a path to

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Speaker 4: have a cut in December to keep this pulling some

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Speaker 4: restrictiveness out of the economy, doing it gradually, and I

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Speaker 4: think this ought to support that. Now, the main of

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Speaker 4: the last roadblock to the December cut, which I think

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Speaker 4: the Fed is very much on track to do. The

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Speaker 4: last roadblock is next week's CPI. But even that, I

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Speaker 4: mean they've had a plan, They've articulated it.

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Speaker 3: Claudia, I've got to go one final question to all

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Speaker 3: the character of Michigan academics, and that is the study

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Speaker 3: of inflation. Can we use our usual tools to study

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Speaker 3: this modern inflation? Are we so overwhelmed by technology it's

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Speaker 3: shift to productivity that we can't measure inflation with a confidence.

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Speaker 3: That Gramlechain Company told us we could.

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Speaker 4: Do well our statistics, the way we measure inflation or

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Speaker 4: any other aspect of the economy. They're always evolving. The

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Speaker 4: beer of labor statistics is always bringing in new data

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Speaker 4: and new tools. They're refining it. They don't you know,

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Speaker 4: it's not the stuff of headlines. But we do have

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Speaker 4: to keep up with the technology and the changes. And

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Speaker 4: I think largely US statistical agencies do a good job.

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Speaker 4: There's always more more to do, but it does, you know,

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Speaker 4: bring it's fine to have more tools in the toolkit

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Speaker 4: and that awareness, and we should have an awareness that

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Speaker 4: no number that comes out, whether it is well crafted,

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Speaker 4: is the truth. Right, Like these are estimates. This is

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Speaker 4: our best estimate of what's going on.

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Speaker 3: Claudia, thank you so much. Claudia, Simon is Century advisors

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Speaker 3: all over work at the FED and of course of Michigan.

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Speaker 3: Is Paul mentioned this earlier. The revision is twelve thousand

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Speaker 3: up to thirty six thousand. The some two month total

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Speaker 3: is fifty six thousand positive revision. You add them together

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Speaker 3: to twenty seven plus fifty six. I don't have the

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Speaker 3: HP twelve C in front of me. I'm guessing two

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Speaker 3: eighty three good is a constructive number here to develop

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Speaker 3: a three month moving average and to be thematic.

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Speaker 5: Yep, that's a new word. We're thematic.

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Speaker 6: What thematic?

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Speaker 3: Joining us now from Morgan Stanley, she's thematic.

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Speaker 6: She's writing your condoms as we speak, Tom she is.

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Speaker 3: I mean, it's gifted thematic in macro investing.

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Speaker 5: Sarah Wolf joins us.

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Speaker 3: Right now, that's my theme today, forget about the noise.

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Speaker 3: Grabb three months moving average? Is that what you're doing.

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Speaker 8: I'm looking at all the underlying details and it's kind

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Speaker 8: of just showing that the economy is in a solid

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Speaker 8: place and we're not going to see much market price

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Speaker 8: market moving around this. We're going to look towards the

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Speaker 8: CPI data. But the economy is chugging along. It's in

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Speaker 8: a good place, so we don't need to put on

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Speaker 8: more cuts for next year, and it's not so high

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Speaker 8: that we need to take off cuts as well for December.

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Speaker 8: If you look at the underlying trend, we're probably running

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Speaker 8: at around one hundred and fifty thousand a month, which

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Speaker 8: is a pretty good place to be right now.

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Speaker 6: For Powell.

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Speaker 5: I mean, I look at.

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Speaker 3: The wage number Paul mentioned to tick better than we are.

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Speaker 3: Do we have and inflation adjusted real wage at leasta

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Speaker 3: Mateo questions.

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Speaker 8: That we're having real wage gains, that's for sure. If

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Speaker 8: you get CPI data next week at point three percent,

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Speaker 8: then that's an increase in real average hourly earnings. That's

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Speaker 8: one of the reasons why we see a little bit

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Speaker 8: of improvement and low income spending next year, because you're

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Speaker 8: finally getting that real buying power. Back Wages still are

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Speaker 8: now rising above inflation. We've been waiting for that to happen,

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Speaker 8: and now we're starting to see it. And it's pretty sustainable.

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Speaker 7: Thanks to Eric from the back row here, interest rate

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Speaker 7: swap traders are signing an eighty two percent chance of

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Speaker 7: a rate cut at the FED December eighteenth meeting.

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Speaker 6: That's according to EJ Market.

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Speaker 3: It's the same study that's gutsing. We're one Sodo's card.

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Speaker 7: Yeah please, who knows the highest dollar? So, Sarah, I'm again,

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Speaker 7: if I'm the Federal Reserve, I'm calling soft landing, right,

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Speaker 7: I mean, I think we got to give these folks

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Speaker 7: some credit here.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 8: Well, if you look at the underlying details, it's even

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Speaker 8: better than the headline because you're not getting an extraordinarily

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Speaker 8: extraordinary amount of strength in these holiday shopping categories, which

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Speaker 8: is where I think markets were expecting there to be

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Speaker 8: more strength. So retail trade was actually down twenty eight

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Speaker 8: thousand on the month. Transportation warehousing was a mere three thousand,

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Speaker 8: so we didn't really get that big upside. That means

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Speaker 8: that you actually got a lot more breadth in payroll gains.

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Speaker 8: So financial activities were strong, professional business services, more confidence

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Speaker 8: in these white collar jobs. And then we're still getting

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Speaker 8: hiring at the lower end of the income distribution, education, health, leisure,

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Speaker 8: and hospitality. So I do think that the breath in

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Speaker 8: the payroll print is notable.

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Speaker 6: She gets numbers that we don't get. She gets the

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Speaker 6: special numbers. I don't know.

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Speaker 5: Just so let me translate this, folks.

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Speaker 3: If you're in a fancy firm, I whte you firm

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Speaker 3: like Morgan Stanley, it's leisure and hospitality. Here at Bloomberg Surveillance,

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Speaker 3: it's bartenders.

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Speaker 7: Okatu, So Sarah, I mean as we step back here,

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Speaker 7: I mean in twenty twenty five, how are you guys

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Speaker 7: thinking about this US economy? What's your GDP outlook, what's

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Speaker 7: your inflation outlook? Are you constructive or do you have

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Speaker 7: some concerns out there.

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Speaker 8: Yeah, So first let me talk about the labor market

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Speaker 8: for next year, because we're here right now. If we're

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Speaker 8: getting tighter immigration policy, you could actually start to see

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Speaker 8: that unemployment rate push down lower, right because you're removing

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Speaker 8: labor supply from the economy, and wages could go a

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Speaker 8: little bit higher. So it's going to be an interesting

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Speaker 8: dynamic next year where payroll growth could be quite a

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Speaker 8: bit softer because you have less population growth somewhere to

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Speaker 8: the tune of fifty thousand to one hundred thousand a month.

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Speaker 8: That looks we compared to where we've been running the

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Speaker 8: last couple of years, but that's still going to reflect

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Speaker 8: a very tight labor market because it's coming from the

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Speaker 8: supply side. On GDP growth, we have about two percent

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Speaker 8: for GDP, so that's a that's a slowdown from where

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Speaker 8: we are this year. Nonetheless, there's a lot less downside

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Speaker 8: risk recessionary risks. Right, there's policy risk, but we're moving

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Speaker 8: away from the recession risk, and that's one of the

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Speaker 8: reasons why market's gonna be a little bit more optimistic

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Speaker 8: even with a weaker GDP growth.

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Speaker 3: And your commune across America, good morning, and thank you

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Speaker 3: for joining Paul Sweeny and myself Apple Car Play, Android Auto.

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Speaker 3: Thank you Serious XM channel one twenty one. They showed

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Speaker 3: me those numbers two days ago. Wow, thank you for

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Speaker 3: joining and Serious X. I'm on the corn ninety nine

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Speaker 3: and one FM Washington up to Mount Katat a little

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Speaker 3: chili today.

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Speaker 6: I bet you, I bet you.

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Speaker 5: I'll check Mount Washington here in a moment.

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Speaker 3: See we need a hot toddy at the Breton at

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Speaker 3: Mount Washington Hotel. Good morning ninety two nine FM in

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Speaker 3: Boston is well, what do we have upcoming here? We

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Speaker 3: got mar Sarah Wolf with us right now, Kathy Jones

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Speaker 3: will join us, and then very importantly an extensive conversation

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Speaker 3: with Lori Kelvis on this great bull market killing it today,

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Speaker 3: small sacks rustles up nine tenths of a percent year,

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Speaker 3: more volatile than the other. Sarah Wilfelm, Morgan Stanley with

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Speaker 3: us right now. Where's nominal GDP? Where's the animal spirits?

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Speaker 3: Next year? Are you telling me we get to sustained

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Speaker 3: five percent? Or do we dip down a little bit?

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Speaker 3: Not in the letharg but we just finally pull it back.

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Speaker 8: I think we could start the year around five or

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Speaker 8: six percent. And then's likely did you say six five

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Speaker 8: to six percent? I mean, if we're still getting GDP

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Speaker 8: growth at three percent, I think there could be a

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Speaker 8: little bit of upsiding consumer spending in the beginning of

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Speaker 8: the year. Think about the wealth effect that's going to

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Speaker 8: start to come through in early twenty twenty five. We've

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Speaker 8: had a really significant rally in equities and that's going

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Speaker 8: to pass through into some consumer spending. Then you get

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Speaker 8: a little bit of a rebound and lower income households

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Speaker 8: as well. And then I think we start to get

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Speaker 8: a bit of that slow down with immigration policy, with tariffs,

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Speaker 8: and so markets need to be watching that slow down

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Speaker 8: that could start to hit the middle to the end

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Speaker 8: of twenty twenty five, and I think that the fixed

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Speaker 8: income are are definitely aware of that. Equity seemed to

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Speaker 8: be a little bit more excited.

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Speaker 5: Did that?

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Speaker 3: Why now I learned that from Mike Wilson. Yes, a

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Speaker 3: little more excited your hedge.

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Speaker 6: I know, I know, Sarah.

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Speaker 7: Did anything change for you guys at Morgan Stanley from

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Speaker 7: the economic and strategy standpoint? The day after the election,

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Speaker 7: we now have a Republican president about to take office.

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Speaker 7: The Congress Republican, although maybe not as wavy as some

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Speaker 7: people would think, but still a Republican controlled Congress.

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Speaker 6: Did that change your outlooks your forecast?

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Speaker 8: Yeah, our economics team definitely took up inflation a bit

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Speaker 8: for next year. Right, we had inflation coming down closer

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Speaker 8: to two percent by the end of twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 8: Now it's looking closer to two and a half percent

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Speaker 8: because you're getting that inflationary effect from tariffs. What that

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Speaker 8: also means is that you have to take cuts off

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Speaker 8: the table if Fed's not gonna be able to cut

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Speaker 8: that much next year. We have three cuts in our forecast.

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Speaker 8: The Fed's likely going to have to take some cuts

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Speaker 8: out of their forecast at the December Summary of Economic

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Speaker 8: Projections next week, and that's going to reflect higher inflation

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Speaker 8: not only for this year, but they're also going to

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Speaker 8: try to be modeling out the policies for next year

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Speaker 8: in their own projections, and it could lift up their

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Speaker 8: expectations for inflation.

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Speaker 5: Tell me, one of the.

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Speaker 3: Themes is we got a three percent GDP.

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Speaker 5: Growth in China. You know who knows, but.

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Speaker 3: The answer is is a subdued Pacific rim You got

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Speaker 3: NX off the back of the equation. When you say

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Speaker 3: here's our as Allarian would say, here's our unknown unknowns.

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Speaker 3: How unknown is the export dynamic globally which frankly Morgan

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Speaker 3: Stanley invented the analysis.

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Speaker 8: I'll tell you what I'm watching the closest. It's what's

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Speaker 8: going to happen with Mexico and Canada, because even though

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Speaker 8: we have a lot of trade with China, we're way

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Speaker 8: more exposed to Mexico and Canada. Our value chain, our

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Speaker 8: supply chain is completely interlinked with these two economies. It's

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Speaker 8: a quarter of US trade to Mexico and Canada. Eighty

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Speaker 8: percent of exports from those two countries come to the US.

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Speaker 8: So of course tariffs are being used as a negotiating

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Speaker 8: tactic as we go into the US MCA. But if

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Speaker 8: we really do see an increase in tariffs there, that's

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Speaker 8: going to be something to watch and that's going to

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Speaker 8: really hurt US manufacturing.

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Speaker 3: I mean, the uncertainty back end here is just amazing

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Speaker 3: because you take, you know, whatever the math is on

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Speaker 3: that exports is a percentage of total GDS seed. The

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Speaker 3: consumer gets all the attention, right, but I'm sorry, NX

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Speaker 3: is not a small matter. It's not a small get

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Speaker 3: one more Kelvi Seed is waiting to get one more

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Speaker 3: Martam Sace.

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Speaker 6: We've got her in our studio here.

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Speaker 7: So, sir, what's the headwind out there that maybe we're

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Speaker 7: not thinking about, maybe the market's not thinking about her.

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Speaker 6: Are you guys penciling out some concerns out there?

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Speaker 8: I would say the biggest headwind is that even though

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Speaker 8: you're going to get an extension of the Tax Cutting

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Speaker 8: Jobs Act, it's mostly going to be benefiting upper income households, right,

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Speaker 8: and so you need to think about how much of

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Speaker 8: that actually starts to pass through into stronger consumer spending.

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Speaker 8: And I'm talking about twenty twenty six now right, a

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Speaker 8: little bit further out on the outlook, households tend to

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Speaker 8: spend savings when you're that high income, if you're getting

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Speaker 8: four hundred thousand or above, So do we really get

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Speaker 8: that much upside to economic activity?

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Speaker 5: The old days? You don't remember this CJ.

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Speaker 3: Lawrence bear Stearn's David malpis John writing whatever. In the

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Speaker 3: old days, people like you would model out thirty six months.

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Speaker 3: The only thing I can model out right now for

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Speaker 3: twenty twenty six is Ellen Zetner's going fly fishing somewhere.

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Speaker 5: That's the only thing I know.

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Speaker 3: Can you really go out even to July of next

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Speaker 3: year with any confidence?

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Speaker 8: We have to talk about all the uncertainties, but what

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Speaker 8: I could say is maybe a near term uncertainty we're

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Speaker 8: getting University of Michigan at ten AM. We've started to

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Speaker 8: get a little bit more data on business confidence as well.

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Speaker 8: The hope right is that now that we're past the election,

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Speaker 8: we can start to get some animal spirits from consumers,

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Speaker 8: from businesses, they could start hiring again. The biggest worry

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Speaker 8: right now is that hiring has been slowing down for

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Speaker 8: two years. Now, can that start to stabilize? That's what

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Speaker 8: the FED really wants to see. And how big of

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Speaker 8: the election plate I get.

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Speaker 3: Elect Yeah, Sarah, I got to get this in. One

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Speaker 3: more question then, if hiring has been slowing down for

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Speaker 3: two years, why do I have a sub five percent

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Speaker 3: unemployment rate? And the answers what immigration in the unknown?

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Speaker 8: I mean, layoffs have stayed really low. You're not seeing

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Speaker 8: hiring come down and layoffs pick up as we normally do.

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Speaker 8: Right people are ill retaining their workers. There's this uncertainty

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Speaker 8: effect that's weighing on hiring. But it's not so bad

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Speaker 8: such that people need to start getting rid of their workers.

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Speaker 9: Sarah.

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Speaker 3: Thank you Sarah Wolf with this here this morning with

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Speaker 3: Morgan Stanley. Just you can't say enough about what we've

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Speaker 3: lined up here. The team. You know, the interns aren't

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Speaker 3: the same in December, Paul, because they are in the summer.

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Speaker 5: No, you know, in the.

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Speaker 3: Summer they're out there that they're you know the bar

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Speaker 3: at Grand Central Station underneath.

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Speaker 5: The oh yeah, you know Park Avenue. I can't remember

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Speaker 5: the name of that.

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Speaker 6: There's not a bar.

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Speaker 3: I don't know that the kids in the summer are

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Speaker 3: there in the winter they're working. This is really great setup.

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Speaker 3: Thank you Sarah so much. Sarah Wolf. With Morgan Stanley

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Speaker 3: joining us now in my theme for the end of

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Speaker 3: the year is this great bullmarket one of the charms

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Speaker 3: of Lori Kelvisina. You're never gonna hear her say go

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Speaker 3: to cash. She is in the market. Laurie, rip up

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Speaker 3: the script going forward here in the next year. Do

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Speaker 3: you really finally see a shift to that once every

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Speaker 3: ten years small cap performance or does Mags step still

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Speaker 3: reign supreme?

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Speaker 10: All right, well, thanks for having me, Tom, And look,

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Speaker 10: you know I I unfortunately think that things are just

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Speaker 10: going to stay choppy for a while. And if you

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Speaker 10: look back to twenty sixteen, twenty eighteen, the early days

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Speaker 10: of the first Trump administration, we had three distinct trades

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Speaker 10: into small cap relative to large cap. They were short lived,

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Speaker 10: They were they were sort of fickle, They were really powerful.

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Speaker 10: While they lasted, they unwound really fast. And I do

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Speaker 10: feel like we're set up for a chopping environment again,

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Speaker 10: and that is with a big caveat unless we can

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Speaker 10: get a clearly hot economy. So I think the things

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Speaker 10: you really need to see for small caps to embark

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Speaker 10: on a longer term out performance cycle reacceleration in job growth.

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Speaker 10: We just got a little bit of color on, you

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Speaker 10: know how it's been decelerating for quite some time. You

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Speaker 10: need to see things like ism manufacturing. We're stuck at

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Speaker 10: the bottom there. We need to really see that uplift.

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Speaker 10: And we need hot GDP. GDP forecasts are trending at

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Speaker 10: two point or two point zero percent for next year.

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Speaker 10: You need something more like two six, two seven historically

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Speaker 10: for small caps to really outperform, and we're just not

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Speaker 10: there yet.

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Speaker 3: Laurie, my good friend Jim Kramer over at the Death Start,

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Speaker 3: and Jim would always say it's like baseball, thirty percent

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Speaker 3: of the stocks are going to do well, seventy percent

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Speaker 3: of the stocks are not going to do well, Which

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Speaker 3: thirty percent of the stocks do I want to be in.

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Speaker 10: So look, I would say I still like financials at

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Speaker 10: this point in time, and I know it's gotten uber consensus,

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Speaker 10: and I think we really have to watch the valuations

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Speaker 10: closely in the new year. But if we go back

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Speaker 10: to that small cap part of the market, I do

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Speaker 10: still see a lot of room for those to continue.

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Speaker 10: And I do think we're only about halfway through and

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Speaker 10: earning's revision, recovery and banks. So I think you want

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Speaker 10: to be selective here in large calf we just upgraded

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Speaker 10: communication services, it's cheap, it's had good, solid earnings and

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Speaker 10: revenue revision trends, and there's not really as much political,

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Speaker 10: you know, sort of relevance to that sector frankly in

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Speaker 10: the next year. So I think you want to own

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Speaker 10: different things in different parts of the market cap spectrum,

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Speaker 10: but just be really really, you know, sort of focused

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Speaker 10: on the individual stocks, focused on the individual industries. And

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Speaker 10: I don't even necessarily think it's a mag seven versus

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Speaker 10: everything else kind of marketing at this point.

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Speaker 3: I mean import your folks. Is we got a whole

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Speaker 3: secret like CIA know espionage message system here that we

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Speaker 3: go back and forth on and I'm getting tidbits. Paul

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Speaker 3: particularly has given me information all the time.

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Speaker 5: Gura never gives me anomation. I got nothing nothing.

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Speaker 3: Gurs like they're playing at the grand old Opry. Thank you, David.

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Speaker 5: I really needed that.

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Speaker 3: You sent me a note THEA the day Golden Sacks

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Speaker 3: at six hundred?

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Speaker 6: Yes, how about that?

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Speaker 9: Wow?

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Speaker 6: How about that?

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Speaker 7: Are good friends over there at Goldman Sec.

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Speaker 5: Laurie.

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Speaker 7: When you're out there, I know you travel a lot

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Speaker 7: visiting RBC clients all over the world. What's the pushback

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Speaker 7: you get from clients about this market? Is it valuation?

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Speaker 7: Is it just earnings fatigue? What kind of pushback do

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Speaker 7: you get on maybe an optimistic call in the market.

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Speaker 10: So I would say this week, if I'm just and

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Speaker 10: I've just been on the road the last couple of days,

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Speaker 10: I sensed a lot of nervousness. I started pulling clients,

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Speaker 10: you know, saying, are you bullsh are you verish? Are

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Speaker 10: you you know, cautiously optimistic? Optimistic but cautious, And I

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Speaker 10: think people were sort of in those latter two camps,

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Speaker 10: you know, I had a number of people say, look,

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Speaker 10: you know, the market's just going to keep trading up

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Speaker 10: in the short term, but we're really worried about what happens,

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Speaker 10: you know, say in January or February. I had other

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Speaker 10: clients who said, you know, we think next year is

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Speaker 10: going to be good, but we're sort of worried about,

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Speaker 10: you know, kind of trends in the second half of

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Speaker 10: the year. So I think in general what I'm sensing

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Speaker 10: is nervousness on sentiment, how propy it's become sentiment, you know,

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Speaker 10: and positioning as well, and really a lot of concern

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Speaker 10: about valuations, and also a lot of concern that we've

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Speaker 10: pulled some of the tailwinds forward into the price and

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Speaker 10: so there's you know, probably near term optimism but overshadowed

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Speaker 10: by longer term concerns.

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Speaker 3: LORII, Do managements have degrees of freedom to act? One

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Speaker 3: of my arch themes, folks, is managements adapt and adjust

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Speaker 3: way more than what the street thinks. LORI Does corporate

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Speaker 3: management across all SMP sectors do they still have wiggle

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Speaker 3: room to adapt and to adjust to events that are

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Speaker 3: handed to them.

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Speaker 10: So if you listen to what they've been saying since

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Speaker 10: the election, and you know, we and I'll be honestly,

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Speaker 10: I've read the last few days worth of you know,

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Speaker 10: conference transcripts and earning transcripts. But you know, if I

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Speaker 10: think back, you know, to the beginning of the week

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Speaker 10: where my reading was current, they're still telling the story

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Speaker 10: that they are right. And so they're generally going back.

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Speaker 10: There's tons and tons of questions on tariffs, and they're

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Speaker 10: going back and they're saying, well, you know, we managed

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Speaker 10: through this very well. We've recalibrated supply chains, YadA, YadA, YadA,

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Speaker 10: And they said similar things after SVB right, a totally

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Speaker 10: different issue, but really emphasize their ability to sort of

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Speaker 10: manage through a challenge. I think what I'm maybe concerned

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Speaker 10: about on this tariff issue is that a lot of

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Speaker 10: the commentary has been focused on, well, we've reduced our

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Speaker 10: China footprint. Well, you know, we don't have as much

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Speaker 10: China exposure as we used to, and we've moved some

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Speaker 10: things into Southeast Asia or Mexico. And to the extent

438
00:19:50,080 --> 00:19:52,240
Speaker 10: that you think this tariff challenge is going to be

439
00:19:52,280 --> 00:19:54,399
Speaker 10: different than the first one that we went through, in

440
00:19:54,440 --> 00:19:57,920
Speaker 10: twenty eighteen twenty nineteen. It's not clear to me that

441
00:19:58,200 --> 00:20:00,720
Speaker 10: companies have really figured out how to hand that yet.

442
00:20:01,000 --> 00:20:03,880
Speaker 10: I would say the other thing is cost pressure seem

443
00:20:03,960 --> 00:20:06,119
Speaker 10: to be coming back, and the tone on earnings has

444
00:20:06,160 --> 00:20:08,120
Speaker 10: been a little bit more negative the last two quarters,

445
00:20:08,280 --> 00:20:11,200
Speaker 10: and margin expectations are coming down on sell side consensus

446
00:20:11,320 --> 00:20:14,240
Speaker 10: estimates for next year. So I do wonder if we're

447
00:20:14,280 --> 00:20:16,080
Speaker 10: starting to run out a little bit.

448
00:20:16,280 --> 00:20:20,680
Speaker 3: Paul YadA, YadA, YadA, is CFA level four? Miriam has

449
00:20:20,720 --> 00:20:24,280
Speaker 3: that is boring our empty talk? Oh okay that just

450
00:20:24,320 --> 00:20:26,800
Speaker 3: so you know, YadA for our international audience, we got

451
00:20:26,840 --> 00:20:27,960
Speaker 3: to translate yaada.

452
00:20:28,840 --> 00:20:31,680
Speaker 7: Sorry, Hey Lorie, what's what screens well for you guys

453
00:20:31,720 --> 00:20:34,920
Speaker 7: going into twenty twenty five here? I mean that's I

454
00:20:34,920 --> 00:20:36,400
Speaker 7: don't want to be boring and just say I'm want

455
00:20:36,400 --> 00:20:38,320
Speaker 7: to you know, like like Tom Keane just owned a

456
00:20:38,359 --> 00:20:39,920
Speaker 7: magnificent seven and clip combines.

457
00:20:40,240 --> 00:20:41,160
Speaker 6: What else are we doing here?

458
00:20:42,440 --> 00:20:42,680
Speaker 9: Look?

459
00:20:42,720 --> 00:20:44,760
Speaker 10: You know, I think if we if we sort of

460
00:20:44,880 --> 00:20:47,080
Speaker 10: veer away right from the financials, which we all know

461
00:20:47,119 --> 00:20:49,560
Speaker 10: about in the comm services upgrade that we just had.

462
00:20:50,119 --> 00:20:52,280
Speaker 10: I've been noodling over the energy sector as well, and

463
00:20:52,320 --> 00:20:55,480
Speaker 10: we've kept an overweight on there hasn't worked out, but

464
00:20:55,560 --> 00:20:57,720
Speaker 10: if we look into next year, it's still a very

465
00:20:57,800 --> 00:21:01,200
Speaker 10: very cheap sector. It's still an area where the policy

466
00:21:01,240 --> 00:21:04,600
Speaker 10: mix seems more favorable in terms of potential tailwinds and

467
00:21:04,640 --> 00:21:07,440
Speaker 10: headwinds in the year ahead. And one thing we're worried

468
00:21:07,480 --> 00:21:09,879
Speaker 10: about with a lot of different sectors, frankly, is the

469
00:21:09,960 --> 00:21:12,879
Speaker 10: impact of a stronger dollar on earnings revisions and energy

470
00:21:12,920 --> 00:21:15,520
Speaker 10: sensitivity is a bit lower there than other sectors. So

471
00:21:15,560 --> 00:21:18,000
Speaker 10: that's another one we're sticking with. And I've actually found,

472
00:21:18,040 --> 00:21:20,040
Speaker 10: you know, sort of good interest in that call. We've

473
00:21:20,080 --> 00:21:22,480
Speaker 10: also found good interest in our upgrade of comm services

474
00:21:22,480 --> 00:21:24,880
Speaker 10: earlier this week. And I think, you know, again, financials

475
00:21:24,920 --> 00:21:28,359
Speaker 10: are consensus. And as we dug into that, we've said, look,

476
00:21:28,359 --> 00:21:30,919
Speaker 10: you know, the capital markets names the investment banks look

477
00:21:30,960 --> 00:21:33,080
Speaker 10: a little pricey on our work, but if you look

478
00:21:33,119 --> 00:21:36,919
Speaker 10: at the traditional banks, especially the smaller banks insurance companies,

479
00:21:37,400 --> 00:21:40,879
Speaker 10: there are pockets within financials that still have good valuation appeal.

480
00:21:40,920 --> 00:21:42,000
Speaker 10: So I do think you want to be a bit

481
00:21:42,040 --> 00:21:43,919
Speaker 10: more selective in the financials.

482
00:21:44,000 --> 00:21:47,159
Speaker 3: Laurie Ampleton, thank you so much. Really appreciate the RBC

483
00:21:48,080 --> 00:21:51,240
Speaker 3: Capital markets as well. This came in from someone you

484
00:21:51,280 --> 00:21:54,359
Speaker 3: know off YouTube live chat. The momosas today we have

485
00:21:54,400 --> 00:21:56,000
Speaker 3: in Tito's or the momosas short.

486
00:21:56,040 --> 00:21:59,720
Speaker 6: That's how roll jobs day? Yeah, why not jobs Day?

487
00:22:00,359 --> 00:22:01,000
Speaker 6: Have some fun here?

488
00:22:01,040 --> 00:22:04,000
Speaker 3: They have little cute like like like golf stick things.

489
00:22:04,080 --> 00:22:07,600
Speaker 3: They have little puppets that they put over the bottles.

490
00:22:07,600 --> 00:22:09,159
Speaker 5: Now they say Tito's they're orange?

491
00:22:09,280 --> 00:22:09,520
Speaker 9: Do they?

492
00:22:09,560 --> 00:22:09,840
Speaker 5: Okay?

493
00:22:10,080 --> 00:22:10,280
Speaker 9: Yeah?

494
00:22:10,359 --> 00:22:12,480
Speaker 5: I don't know how I knew them. You know that

495
00:22:12,680 --> 00:22:17,400
Speaker 5: Bill likes Titos. Yes, Tito's joining us. Now help me here, Bob.

496
00:22:17,440 --> 00:22:18,439
Speaker 5: Do we have miss Jones?

497
00:22:18,920 --> 00:22:21,920
Speaker 3: Honest? Kathy Jones joins us and Charles Schwab. Thank you

498
00:22:22,040 --> 00:22:25,520
Speaker 3: Kathy for having us finish the hour here a strong

499
00:22:25,640 --> 00:22:27,840
Speaker 3: I got a jobs day, I got to continue to

500
00:22:27,880 --> 00:22:32,040
Speaker 3: equity lift is well? What this is the key thing

501
00:22:32,080 --> 00:22:35,479
Speaker 3: with Schwab. What are we doing now? What we're talking

502
00:22:35,520 --> 00:22:40,200
Speaker 3: about but Kathy Jones, what are Schwab high net worth

503
00:22:40,280 --> 00:22:42,800
Speaker 3: individuals doing with their money?

504
00:22:44,200 --> 00:22:48,320
Speaker 1: Well, they're enjoying the ride right now because things have

505
00:22:48,440 --> 00:22:51,720
Speaker 1: gone pretty well in terms of fixed income. What we're

506
00:22:51,760 --> 00:22:54,760
Speaker 1: saying is people are looking at some of these yields

507
00:22:54,760 --> 00:22:57,040
Speaker 1: and saying, you know, for that part of my portfolio,

508
00:22:57,640 --> 00:23:02,000
Speaker 1: I like five percent plus. Whether it's investment great corporate

509
00:23:02,080 --> 00:23:06,840
Speaker 1: bonds or you know, tax adjusted muni bonds, they've been treasuries.

510
00:23:06,880 --> 00:23:09,560
Speaker 1: They're giving you a pretty decent yield. We're saying a

511
00:23:09,640 --> 00:23:12,520
Speaker 1: little bit of caution just because we don't know how

512
00:23:12,520 --> 00:23:15,760
Speaker 1: far the FED will go. But I do think people

513
00:23:15,800 --> 00:23:18,520
Speaker 1: are looking at these yields and saying, Okay, I'm a

514
00:23:18,560 --> 00:23:22,640
Speaker 1: little more assured that these yields are, you know, near

515
00:23:22,720 --> 00:23:24,919
Speaker 1: the upper end of where we're going to be. So

516
00:23:24,960 --> 00:23:26,560
Speaker 1: they're moving out a little bit on the curve.

517
00:23:27,640 --> 00:23:29,920
Speaker 7: So, Kathy, I can't help, but notice, I mean I

518
00:23:29,960 --> 00:23:31,920
Speaker 7: look at my end go function kind of gives you

519
00:23:32,000 --> 00:23:34,080
Speaker 7: the returns for a cross fixed income and boy, the

520
00:23:34,640 --> 00:23:37,080
Speaker 7: high yield and leverage loan spaces. I mean, you know,

521
00:23:37,240 --> 00:23:40,440
Speaker 7: high eight percent, nine percent returns here to date. I'm

522
00:23:40,480 --> 00:23:44,160
Speaker 7: surprised that that part of the market's been so strong.

523
00:23:44,240 --> 00:23:45,520
Speaker 7: How do you think about that part of the market

524
00:23:45,560 --> 00:23:45,960
Speaker 7: these days?

525
00:23:46,800 --> 00:23:51,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, you've had really easy financing conditions. You know, you've

526
00:23:51,400 --> 00:23:55,760
Speaker 1: had rates coming down that's a tailwind, have high coupons

527
00:23:55,840 --> 00:23:58,439
Speaker 1: that's a tailwind. And then what you've had in a

528
00:23:58,480 --> 00:24:01,960
Speaker 1: lot of this is a pride credit folks taking out

529
00:24:02,040 --> 00:24:06,080
Speaker 1: the weaker players in the high yel market. So high

530
00:24:06,119 --> 00:24:10,200
Speaker 1: heel market has changed, is evolving to be less junkie

531
00:24:10,240 --> 00:24:12,320
Speaker 1: than it has been in the past. And we've had

532
00:24:12,320 --> 00:24:16,080
Speaker 1: a good economic environment and corporate earnings going up, so

533
00:24:16,200 --> 00:24:21,080
Speaker 1: it's been it's been a pretty good backdrop for riskier

534
00:24:21,240 --> 00:24:23,560
Speaker 1: parts of the fixed income market, as it has been

535
00:24:23,600 --> 00:24:26,520
Speaker 1: for the equity market. You know, high yield tends to

536
00:24:26,520 --> 00:24:29,920
Speaker 1: be highly correlated with equities, so not too surprising there,

537
00:24:30,520 --> 00:24:31,040
Speaker 1: all right.

538
00:24:30,920 --> 00:24:33,720
Speaker 7: So I guess the question is here for twenty twenty five.

539
00:24:33,800 --> 00:24:38,080
Speaker 7: Given the strong returns across fixed income you know, again

540
00:24:38,160 --> 00:24:41,560
Speaker 7: green pretty much across most of the spaces here, where

541
00:24:41,640 --> 00:24:44,000
Speaker 7: is their value in twenty twenty five as you kind

542
00:24:44,040 --> 00:24:46,399
Speaker 7: of think about the global fixed income space.

543
00:24:47,480 --> 00:24:51,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, I wouldn't say anything is a screaming

544
00:24:51,720 --> 00:24:55,000
Speaker 1: you know, undervaluation at this stage of the game. Everything's

545
00:24:55,040 --> 00:24:58,480
Speaker 1: pretty fairly valued. And you could argue that in some

546
00:24:58,760 --> 00:25:02,760
Speaker 1: parts of the market, like corporate bond valuations are pretty

547
00:25:02,840 --> 00:25:06,000
Speaker 1: rich because the spread yield spread versus treasuries are really

548
00:25:06,040 --> 00:25:08,840
Speaker 1: really tight. And I would say that that's true and

549
00:25:08,920 --> 00:25:11,240
Speaker 1: high yield. It'd have to be sort of cautious there

550
00:25:11,359 --> 00:25:14,520
Speaker 1: because everything's fine until it isn't in high yield, and

551
00:25:14,960 --> 00:25:18,639
Speaker 1: then you know, the spreads move, but we're also just

552
00:25:18,680 --> 00:25:21,400
Speaker 1: focusing on the all in yield, and you know, buyers

553
00:25:21,400 --> 00:25:24,840
Speaker 1: and fixed income usually buy for the income, and it's

554
00:25:24,840 --> 00:25:27,719
Speaker 1: a pretty attractive level here. So I would just be

555
00:25:27,760 --> 00:25:30,879
Speaker 1: cautious about going too far out the respectrum, particularly in

556
00:25:31,000 --> 00:25:34,400
Speaker 1: my yield, but in general the backdrop is still positive.

557
00:25:34,680 --> 00:25:35,960
Speaker 5: Kathy, thank you so much.

558
00:25:36,240 --> 00:25:38,160
Speaker 3: Too short of visit. Let's see it longer next time.

559
00:25:38,240 --> 00:25:40,399
Speaker 3: Kathy Jones with us of Charles Schwab.

560
00:25:46,720 --> 00:25:50,600
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live

561
00:25:50,680 --> 00:25:54,000
Speaker 2: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am. Easter Listen on

562
00:25:54,040 --> 00:25:56,600
Speaker 2: Apple car Play and and Broyte Auto with a Bloomberg

563
00:25:56,640 --> 00:25:59,040
Speaker 2: Business app, or watch us live on YouTube.

564
00:25:59,080 --> 00:26:02,240
Speaker 3: I want to go through there because I think it's important.

565
00:26:02,800 --> 00:26:04,560
Speaker 3: If you're a kid in Brooklyn and this is a

566
00:26:04,600 --> 00:26:10,000
Speaker 3: few years back, and you're uncommonly brilliant, you just end

567
00:26:10,080 --> 00:26:13,840
Speaker 3: up at Princeton University and you do better than good,

568
00:26:14,000 --> 00:26:17,280
Speaker 3: and there's a thing called Summa cum laude. This is

569
00:26:17,280 --> 00:26:20,399
Speaker 3: a few years ago, and then you wander through to

570
00:26:20,440 --> 00:26:23,600
Speaker 3: the London School of Economics and then you have the

571
00:26:23,640 --> 00:26:28,359
Speaker 3: privilege of being advised in MIT by the giant of

572
00:26:28,440 --> 00:26:33,240
Speaker 3: economic growth, Robert Solo. That is a path of Alan Blinder,

573
00:26:33,280 --> 00:26:37,120
Speaker 3: the former vice chairman, joined us now honored.

574
00:26:36,760 --> 00:26:38,160
Speaker 5: That he could be with us today.

575
00:26:38,720 --> 00:26:42,360
Speaker 3: Alan Blinder, what was the first day with Robert Solo?

576
00:26:42,680 --> 00:26:42,760
Speaker 9: Like?

577
00:26:43,000 --> 00:26:47,439
Speaker 3: What the intimidation factor of dealing with the giant of growth?

578
00:26:47,720 --> 00:26:48,560
Speaker 3: What was that like?

579
00:26:48,600 --> 00:26:49,639
Speaker 5: In MIT?

580
00:26:50,160 --> 00:26:52,240
Speaker 11: It was a little bit odd because my first day

581
00:26:52,280 --> 00:26:55,880
Speaker 11: with him was actually not in macroeconomics. He was teaching

582
00:26:55,920 --> 00:27:00,439
Speaker 11: what they then called it MIT Advanced economics theory.

583
00:27:01,160 --> 00:27:02,160
Speaker 9: And he had got a.

584
00:27:02,119 --> 00:27:04,600
Speaker 11: Bug in his head that what he should be doing

585
00:27:04,720 --> 00:27:10,360
Speaker 11: is making urban economics more mathematical. So we started off

586
00:27:10,440 --> 00:27:14,800
Speaker 11: with lectures on cities whose optimal shape was the same

587
00:27:14,840 --> 00:27:18,080
Speaker 11: as a cigar, and he joked that that was a

588
00:27:18,119 --> 00:27:19,200
Speaker 11: model of Palo Alto.

589
00:27:20,119 --> 00:27:21,480
Speaker 9: I still remember.

590
00:27:21,080 --> 00:27:23,840
Speaker 5: That, Ellen Blinder. Do we have too much math?

591
00:27:23,960 --> 00:27:24,120
Speaker 11: Now?

592
00:27:24,280 --> 00:27:28,280
Speaker 3: Do you detect a model at the Eccles building post

593
00:27:28,359 --> 00:27:31,200
Speaker 3: pandemic or we making it up as we go?

594
00:27:33,320 --> 00:27:35,000
Speaker 9: I don't think so, not in that building.

595
00:27:35,119 --> 00:27:38,960
Speaker 11: Now you might level that criticism as parts of academia,

596
00:27:39,000 --> 00:27:39,720
Speaker 11: though I think.

597
00:27:39,600 --> 00:27:42,480
Speaker 9: Even there that peaked or troth.

598
00:27:42,640 --> 00:27:46,520
Speaker 11: But we want to call it a little while back

599
00:27:47,160 --> 00:27:52,120
Speaker 11: and economics is getting a bit more empirical again, which

600
00:27:52,359 --> 00:27:54,160
Speaker 11: to me is a good thing. Not that we should

601
00:27:54,200 --> 00:27:57,439
Speaker 11: Jensen economic theory. It's a question of how big a

602
00:27:57,520 --> 00:28:01,000
Speaker 11: slice of the pie economic theory should take compared to

603
00:28:01,480 --> 00:28:05,600
Speaker 11: empirical economics. So I think that's improving. And inside the

604
00:28:05,680 --> 00:28:10,320
Speaker 11: FED you don't see a lot of this high falutin theory,

605
00:28:10,400 --> 00:28:15,399
Speaker 11: let's call it. They have to be by the nature

606
00:28:15,440 --> 00:28:17,240
Speaker 11: of their jobs, more down to earth.

607
00:28:18,720 --> 00:28:21,160
Speaker 7: Professor, you recently had a piece in the Wall Street

608
00:28:21,200 --> 00:28:25,359
Speaker 7: Journal talking about President Electrump's economic plan. There are concerns

609
00:28:25,480 --> 00:28:29,400
Speaker 7: about some of the inflationary aspects to this plan, whether

610
00:28:29,400 --> 00:28:31,560
Speaker 7: it's tariffs or cutting taxes.

611
00:28:31,600 --> 00:28:34,000
Speaker 6: Can you give us your sense of kind of what

612
00:28:34,080 --> 00:28:35,240
Speaker 6: we know now?

613
00:28:36,119 --> 00:28:37,960
Speaker 9: Yeah, well, we don't know anything now.

614
00:28:38,440 --> 00:28:40,760
Speaker 11: I think we can make the best guess about tariffs

615
00:28:40,920 --> 00:28:45,000
Speaker 11: because the President elect has actually talked about numbers, and

616
00:28:45,080 --> 00:28:49,120
Speaker 11: even though some of those numbers sound wild high, we've

617
00:28:49,680 --> 00:28:53,840
Speaker 11: wild high compared to any sensible economic policy. We have

618
00:28:53,960 --> 00:28:58,400
Speaker 11: come to learn from President elect Trump's first term that

619
00:28:58,480 --> 00:29:01,320
Speaker 11: maybe we should believe them that just because he talks

620
00:29:01,360 --> 00:29:05,160
Speaker 11: about sixty percent tariffs, and most economists would say that's

621
00:29:05,200 --> 00:29:09,920
Speaker 11: completely crazy, we shouldn't dismiss the fact that he might do.

622
00:29:10,000 --> 00:29:11,640
Speaker 5: That, and he has.

623
00:29:12,680 --> 00:29:14,880
Speaker 11: I think it was a huge mistake that Congress may

624
00:29:14,960 --> 00:29:18,400
Speaker 11: though you understand why he has unilateral authority over that,

625
00:29:19,040 --> 00:29:22,880
Speaker 11: you would think this is weird. The Constitution gives taxing authority,

626
00:29:22,920 --> 00:29:26,080
Speaker 11: and that's what tariffs are to the Congress. But the

627
00:29:26,120 --> 00:29:29,280
Speaker 11: Congress has delegated that all the president has to do

628
00:29:29,320 --> 00:29:32,560
Speaker 11: is say to some kind of national emergency, which, of course,

629
00:29:32,640 --> 00:29:36,720
Speaker 11: to Trump, there's a national three national emergencies every day,

630
00:29:38,880 --> 00:29:40,200
Speaker 11: so he could actually do that.

631
00:29:40,520 --> 00:29:42,360
Speaker 9: So you have some handle on the.

632
00:29:43,920 --> 00:29:51,720
Speaker 11: Numbers on the mass incarceration and deportation promises he's I

633
00:29:52,040 --> 00:29:54,920
Speaker 11: don't think he'll ever get eleven million. What he'll get

634
00:29:54,960 --> 00:29:57,200
Speaker 11: in the first year or so, I have no idea.

635
00:29:57,320 --> 00:30:00,920
Speaker 11: Depends on how draconian and thorough they are. You can

636
00:30:01,000 --> 00:30:06,760
Speaker 11: imagine pretty horrible scenarios there, but it's really guess work.

637
00:30:07,000 --> 00:30:09,960
Speaker 3: Alan Blinder, I look at Republican and of course your

638
00:30:09,960 --> 00:30:12,440
Speaker 3: support of John Kerry and Al Gore and others put

639
00:30:12,520 --> 00:30:15,360
Speaker 3: you on the left side of the debate. But I

640
00:30:15,440 --> 00:30:19,400
Speaker 3: look at the nuances of the conservative debate on economics

641
00:30:19,720 --> 00:30:24,520
Speaker 3: and I see someone acutely responsible, like Glenn Hubbard at

642
00:30:24,520 --> 00:30:25,920
Speaker 3: Columbia University.

643
00:30:26,480 --> 00:30:27,440
Speaker 5: And then I see.

644
00:30:27,320 --> 00:30:31,280
Speaker 3: Others within the MILIU, including with President elect Trump, who

645
00:30:31,280 --> 00:30:35,680
Speaker 3: are basically saying growth at any cost. What's the price

646
00:30:36,320 --> 00:30:39,280
Speaker 3: of a growth at any cost strategy?

647
00:30:40,560 --> 00:30:42,920
Speaker 9: Well, I think there are several possible rights.

648
00:30:43,000 --> 00:30:46,480
Speaker 11: First of all, in pursuit of a will of the wisp,

649
00:30:46,560 --> 00:30:50,600
Speaker 11: you may do silly or crazy things. That's the first

650
00:30:50,640 --> 00:30:53,960
Speaker 11: thing you worry about, Like, for example, just to give

651
00:30:54,000 --> 00:30:58,600
Speaker 11: you one example, we're on Bloomberg after all, massive repeal

652
00:30:58,640 --> 00:31:02,479
Speaker 11: of banking regulation. Sure, let's go back to two thousand

653
00:31:02,480 --> 00:31:04,000
Speaker 11: and seven or something like that.

654
00:31:04,520 --> 00:31:08,360
Speaker 9: So there's that kind of a possible cost.

655
00:31:08,560 --> 00:31:11,640
Speaker 11: And then the more obvious costs is the inflationary impact.

656
00:31:11,960 --> 00:31:13,320
Speaker 9: If you just go full.

657
00:31:13,160 --> 00:31:18,640
Speaker 11: Throttle on aggregate demand, for example, cutting taxes again on

658
00:31:18,720 --> 00:31:22,640
Speaker 11: top extending the previous Trump tax cuts and then cutting

659
00:31:22,680 --> 00:31:28,840
Speaker 11: taxes again, you can start running into an inflationary problem

660
00:31:28,960 --> 00:31:32,120
Speaker 11: unless unless, and this is the other big deal, the

661
00:31:32,160 --> 00:31:36,920
Speaker 11: FED steps in and stops it, and the President doesn't

662
00:31:36,960 --> 00:31:38,840
Speaker 11: step in and stop the Fed.

663
00:31:38,640 --> 00:31:44,480
Speaker 7: Somehow, Professor, we had a pretty decent labor print here today, John,

664
00:31:44,320 --> 00:31:47,720
Speaker 7: non non farm payroll. It seems like this labor economy,

665
00:31:48,480 --> 00:31:51,280
Speaker 7: it just kind of continues month after month after month

666
00:31:51,320 --> 00:31:54,920
Speaker 7: to kind of amaze a lot of investors here.

667
00:31:55,040 --> 00:31:56,880
Speaker 6: How do you view the US labor market?

668
00:31:57,760 --> 00:31:59,760
Speaker 9: Yeah, as you asked the question, I'm smiling. I think

669
00:31:59,800 --> 00:32:01,520
Speaker 9: it's right, it's real.

670
00:32:01,880 --> 00:32:04,880
Speaker 11: It's beyond what any any of us, I think, would

671
00:32:04,880 --> 00:32:09,080
Speaker 11: have imagined, beyond in a good sense, what any of

672
00:32:09,160 --> 00:32:11,680
Speaker 11: us could have imagined a year and a half.

673
00:32:11,400 --> 00:32:14,800
Speaker 9: Ago or something like that. I look at this month number,

674
00:32:14,840 --> 00:32:17,040
Speaker 9: this number that just came out as hitting par.

675
00:32:17,640 --> 00:32:17,960
Speaker 5: Again.

676
00:32:18,440 --> 00:32:21,120
Speaker 11: When I say hitting par, remember what the previous month

677
00:32:21,800 --> 00:32:27,239
Speaker 11: was severely impacted by the strike and the storms, and

678
00:32:27,320 --> 00:32:30,520
Speaker 11: so the jobs number was tiny. If you average it

679
00:32:30,640 --> 00:32:36,760
Speaker 11: last month and this month now on the current BLS measurements,

680
00:32:37,640 --> 00:32:39,440
Speaker 11: you're right on par. You're like at one hundred and

681
00:32:39,520 --> 00:32:43,000
Speaker 11: thirty thousand a month. And this is not far from

682
00:32:43,040 --> 00:32:45,480
Speaker 11: where we've been for a long time. And the unemployment

683
00:32:45,560 --> 00:32:50,320
Speaker 11: rate's been close to four point one, four point two,

684
00:32:50,480 --> 00:32:53,200
Speaker 11: four three point nine for a very long time.

685
00:32:53,520 --> 00:32:54,800
Speaker 9: I mean, this is fabulous.

686
00:32:54,840 --> 00:32:58,120
Speaker 3: This really is Elip Blinder. My good friend Adam Johnson

687
00:32:58,120 --> 00:33:01,400
Speaker 3: holding court over at Fox Business. Marie Adam's watch and

688
00:33:01,480 --> 00:33:04,480
Speaker 3: he sends it a note. Can you ask Professor Blinder

689
00:33:04,520 --> 00:33:07,400
Speaker 3: if there's going to be a fifteenth edition of your textbook?

690
00:33:07,800 --> 00:33:10,280
Speaker 3: Where are we on, Bauma Blinder solo?

691
00:33:10,520 --> 00:33:12,720
Speaker 5: I mean, are we going to get a new edition?

692
00:33:14,120 --> 00:33:16,440
Speaker 11: I can't answer that. We're on the fourteenth now and

693
00:33:16,480 --> 00:33:20,040
Speaker 11: there won't be a fifteenth edition. It's time to retire it.

694
00:33:20,880 --> 00:33:23,880
Speaker 11: For your information, Though you didn't ask this, it's implicit

695
00:33:23,920 --> 00:33:27,240
Speaker 11: in the question. The first edition was published wait for

696
00:33:27,360 --> 00:33:29,600
Speaker 11: it in nineteen seventy nine.

697
00:33:30,440 --> 00:33:33,840
Speaker 9: It's been a long run. Talk about things you weren't expected.

698
00:33:33,880 --> 00:33:36,720
Speaker 11: If you had asked me in nineteen seventy nine, how

699
00:33:36,760 --> 00:33:39,840
Speaker 11: long do you think this textbook will last? I don't

700
00:33:39,840 --> 00:33:41,840
Speaker 11: know what I want to say, but it wouldn't have

701
00:33:41,880 --> 00:33:43,320
Speaker 11: been the fourteenth editions.

702
00:33:43,440 --> 00:33:47,400
Speaker 3: One final question to the former vice chairman again, you've

703
00:33:47,400 --> 00:33:51,400
Speaker 3: been associated with Democratic Party politics. How does the Democratic

704
00:33:51,440 --> 00:33:55,160
Speaker 3: Party get back to the center, the center of Scoop Jackson,

705
00:33:55,480 --> 00:33:57,040
Speaker 3: the center of HHH?

706
00:33:57,080 --> 00:33:58,240
Speaker 5: How do we get back there?

707
00:34:00,280 --> 00:34:02,920
Speaker 11: You know, I think a lot of this is perception

708
00:34:03,040 --> 00:34:05,040
Speaker 11: and some of it is policy, and of course we're

709
00:34:05,080 --> 00:34:06,920
Speaker 11: not going to be able to do much policy while

710
00:34:07,160 --> 00:34:12,359
Speaker 11: we're in the minority. The perception and the policy are

711
00:34:12,440 --> 00:34:18,799
Speaker 11: about caring about and doing something for let's just call

712
00:34:18,840 --> 00:34:24,320
Speaker 11: it middle to lower middle class working people. It's ironic

713
00:34:24,400 --> 00:34:28,520
Speaker 11: to me that the Democrats against the Republicans go back generations.

714
00:34:29,120 --> 00:34:31,600
Speaker 11: There's never been a question of which was the party

715
00:34:31,640 --> 00:34:36,520
Speaker 11: that cared more about ordinary working people, never until now,

716
00:34:37,360 --> 00:34:40,920
Speaker 11: and now there is, and the Republicans, in particular Donald Trump,

717
00:34:41,360 --> 00:34:44,920
Speaker 11: have captured a lot of that support and vote.

718
00:34:45,440 --> 00:34:46,520
Speaker 9: I think that.

719
00:34:46,360 --> 00:34:49,280
Speaker 11: Those people are going to see what the second Trump

720
00:34:49,320 --> 00:34:55,960
Speaker 11: administration collection of billionaires actually does with the policy leavers

721
00:34:56,000 --> 00:34:58,759
Speaker 11: and not be too happy, certainly not believe that it

722
00:34:58,840 --> 00:34:59,319
Speaker 11: was for them.

723
00:35:00,160 --> 00:35:03,040
Speaker 3: Alan Blinder, thank you so much, the former vice chairman

724
00:35:03,080 --> 00:35:07,760
Speaker 3: of the Feederserve System of course definitive at Princeton University.

725
00:35:07,960 --> 00:35:12,240
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

726
00:35:12,320 --> 00:35:15,520
Speaker 2: starting at seven am Eastern on applecar Play and Android

727
00:35:15,560 --> 00:35:18,400
Speaker 2: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen

728
00:35:18,520 --> 00:35:21,640
Speaker 2: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

729
00:35:22,000 --> 00:35:24,680
Speaker 2: Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.

730
00:35:24,840 --> 00:35:26,359
Speaker 5: The tour de force for Bloomberg News.

731
00:35:26,360 --> 00:35:28,920
Speaker 3: The last two or three day Steve Carroll still with

732
00:35:29,000 --> 00:35:31,560
Speaker 3: the Stephen Carroll of course, leading all of our radio

733
00:35:31,640 --> 00:35:34,560
Speaker 3: coverage out of London on YouTube as well. Thrilled as

734
00:35:34,600 --> 00:35:38,440
Speaker 3: Stephen Carroll could brief us on this weekend. Stephen Carroll,

735
00:35:38,680 --> 00:35:42,280
Speaker 3: the President mccrawl will give a speech a huge victory

736
00:35:42,360 --> 00:35:47,600
Speaker 3: lap within the absolute catastrophe of government and politics in France,

737
00:35:48,280 --> 00:35:51,920
Speaker 3: and then the Archbishop of Paris will knock on the

738
00:35:52,000 --> 00:35:57,960
Speaker 3: door of Notre Dame. It will be emotional, won't it.

739
00:35:57,960 --> 00:36:00,600
Speaker 12: It will be emotional. It will be significant, not just

740
00:36:00,680 --> 00:36:03,239
Speaker 12: for the fifty heads of state and government who are

741
00:36:03,239 --> 00:36:06,200
Speaker 12: going to be attended, including Donald Trump, as you're going

742
00:36:06,239 --> 00:36:09,279
Speaker 12: to mention, but also for the city of Paris. This

743
00:36:09,520 --> 00:36:12,200
Speaker 12: is a part of the skyline that's been missing since

744
00:36:12,239 --> 00:36:16,399
Speaker 12: twenty nineteen. Everyone remembers where they were when they heard

745
00:36:16,400 --> 00:36:19,040
Speaker 12: the news or saw the smoke, as so many did.

746
00:36:19,160 --> 00:36:22,720
Speaker 12: Neighbors of the area had to have buildings closed because

747
00:36:22,719 --> 00:36:25,839
Speaker 12: of fears of asbestos spreading. Apart that, you know, all

748
00:36:25,880 --> 00:36:29,359
Speaker 12: around this extremely beautiful area of central Paris, we've all

749
00:36:29,360 --> 00:36:32,120
Speaker 12: gotten used to looking at the hoardings around the cathedral

750
00:36:32,280 --> 00:36:35,560
Speaker 12: for the past five years. So you're talking about a

751
00:36:35,600 --> 00:36:38,960
Speaker 12: moment where that area of the center of Paris is

752
00:36:39,000 --> 00:36:41,880
Speaker 12: being transformed, renewed. I don't know if you've seen the

753
00:36:41,880 --> 00:36:44,920
Speaker 12: pictures of inside the cathedral, but it is really spectacular

754
00:36:45,200 --> 00:36:47,239
Speaker 12: what they've done. Our colleagues and City Lab have written

755
00:36:47,239 --> 00:36:49,439
Speaker 12: about it in their great pictures on the livergrob site

756
00:36:49,440 --> 00:36:49,799
Speaker 12: as well.

757
00:36:49,960 --> 00:36:53,960
Speaker 7: So Stephen, where are we in the restoration of the cathedral?

758
00:36:54,040 --> 00:36:56,680
Speaker 7: Is it complete or are we still work in progress?

759
00:36:56,760 --> 00:36:59,040
Speaker 7: Because some of the pictures I've seen are really extraordinary.

760
00:36:59,400 --> 00:37:01,040
Speaker 7: I never think they'd be able to get to this

761
00:37:01,120 --> 00:37:02,600
Speaker 7: point in such a short period of time.

762
00:37:04,480 --> 00:37:05,919
Speaker 12: I mean, I think the thing that struck me about

763
00:37:05,960 --> 00:37:09,240
Speaker 12: it is how much it doesn't look like it did before,

764
00:37:09,400 --> 00:37:12,680
Speaker 12: because essentially during the restoration works, they've been able to

765
00:37:12,760 --> 00:37:15,719
Speaker 12: take down so many of the elements and clean them.

766
00:37:15,719 --> 00:37:18,880
Speaker 12: I mean eight thousand pipes in the organ taken down, cleaned,

767
00:37:18,960 --> 00:37:22,640
Speaker 12: restored and put back in place. And I mean, you know, Paris,

768
00:37:22,719 --> 00:37:25,680
Speaker 12: like cities all around the world, have air pollution issues,

769
00:37:25,719 --> 00:37:28,760
Speaker 12: and this has colored the stone. It's colored the tiles.

770
00:37:28,960 --> 00:37:30,960
Speaker 12: You know, you remember the long queues of people that

771
00:37:31,040 --> 00:37:33,080
Speaker 12: go in and out of the cathedral every day. You know,

772
00:37:33,280 --> 00:37:37,680
Speaker 12: it's bright, it shines in parts. That's what people will

773
00:37:37,719 --> 00:37:39,360
Speaker 12: be striking when we see the images.

774
00:37:39,440 --> 00:37:40,720
Speaker 5: Men's side Steevin Carroll.

775
00:37:40,840 --> 00:37:44,520
Speaker 3: Not to be funny, what does mister mccron do Monday morning.

776
00:37:44,880 --> 00:37:48,920
Speaker 3: I mean, after the emotion and drama of this weekend,

777
00:37:49,040 --> 00:37:53,000
Speaker 3: what does mister mccron wake up to Monday.

778
00:37:53,800 --> 00:37:56,120
Speaker 12: Well, actually, the question we're asking now is whether or

779
00:37:56,200 --> 00:37:59,200
Speaker 12: not mister mccron will have a right hand man, will

780
00:37:59,239 --> 00:38:02,640
Speaker 12: have a prime by Monday as well, because that's still

781
00:38:02,680 --> 00:38:05,720
Speaker 12: what we're waiting for after this week's no confidence vote.

782
00:38:05,719 --> 00:38:07,719
Speaker 12: He said in his address to the nation last night

783
00:38:08,080 --> 00:38:10,600
Speaker 12: that he would name a new prime minister in the

784
00:38:10,600 --> 00:38:12,840
Speaker 12: coming days. He's holding a range of meetings with political

785
00:38:12,840 --> 00:38:16,160
Speaker 12: parties at the Elise Palace today, so I mean he

786
00:38:16,239 --> 00:38:18,799
Speaker 12: may wake up to say that there's a plan. Things

787
00:38:18,800 --> 00:38:21,400
Speaker 12: are back on track. We can be sure this is

788
00:38:21,440 --> 00:38:23,759
Speaker 12: going to be a spectacular weekend where the eyes of

789
00:38:23,800 --> 00:38:27,000
Speaker 12: the world will be on Paris. He'll be in his

790
00:38:27,040 --> 00:38:30,120
Speaker 12: element doing the glad handing of international leaders that we

791
00:38:30,239 --> 00:38:33,279
Speaker 12: know he enjoys and does well. So the question will

792
00:38:33,280 --> 00:38:36,600
Speaker 12: be whether the domestic political situation will look any brighter

793
00:38:36,920 --> 00:38:40,680
Speaker 12: on Monday morning, once they've gotten over this weekend of ceremony.

794
00:38:41,080 --> 00:38:43,799
Speaker 3: Stephen Carroll, folks, has people called me up last They

795
00:38:43,840 --> 00:38:47,520
Speaker 3: said you're not selling Stephen good enough. Folks across continental

796
00:38:47,600 --> 00:38:51,400
Speaker 3: ere solid they start Bloomberg Daybreak with the acclaimed Stephen

797
00:38:51,440 --> 00:38:56,160
Speaker 3: Carroll in London, and they generate a podcast literally.

798
00:38:55,760 --> 00:38:56,880
Speaker 5: Within thirty minutes.

799
00:38:57,080 --> 00:39:00,680
Speaker 3: Yep, the numbers, Paul, It's mccrawl.

800
00:39:00,719 --> 00:39:02,480
Speaker 5: Listens to it. It's unbelievable.

801
00:39:02,640 --> 00:39:12,800
Speaker 2: Stephen Carrollton, This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live

802
00:39:12,880 --> 00:39:15,880
Speaker 2: each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on Apple car

803
00:39:16,000 --> 00:39:18,720
Speaker 2: Play and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app.

804
00:39:18,800 --> 00:39:20,799
Speaker 3: You can also watch us live.

805
00:39:20,640 --> 00:39:24,160
Speaker 2: Every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal.

806
00:39:24,400 --> 00:39:28,799
Speaker 3: Lisa Mateo Hour. It is our newspaper segment, hugely acclaimed.

807
00:39:28,840 --> 00:39:30,200
Speaker 3: Coast to coast, Lisa, what do you.

808
00:39:30,120 --> 00:39:30,680
Speaker 9: Have in the front?

809
00:39:30,760 --> 00:39:33,520
Speaker 13: I have your favorite person in the world, Kim Kardashian. Okay,

810
00:39:33,920 --> 00:39:37,400
Speaker 13: she wants to you know how her Skims line did

811
00:39:37,520 --> 00:39:41,120
Speaker 13: very well well. Now she wants to reinvent skiware. Yes

812
00:39:41,280 --> 00:39:44,080
Speaker 13: on the ski slope. She's teaming up with north Face

813
00:39:44,160 --> 00:39:47,520
Speaker 13: to do it. A collaboration between Skims and north Face. Yeah.

814
00:39:47,719 --> 00:39:51,000
Speaker 13: Fourteen piece collection, Okay, comes out this winter. You have beanies,

815
00:39:51,040 --> 00:39:54,239
Speaker 13: you have leggings, fleece, jackets, out of wear, all in

816
00:39:54,280 --> 00:39:56,040
Speaker 13: the shapes of Beiji and brown, which is kind of weird.

817
00:39:56,080 --> 00:39:58,560
Speaker 13: Because you never see that on ski. You see like the.

818
00:39:58,520 --> 00:39:59,920
Speaker 6: Bright colors, bray colors.

819
00:40:00,080 --> 00:40:03,120
Speaker 13: She's doing the Beijing brown. But she actually is a

820
00:40:03,120 --> 00:40:06,080
Speaker 13: big ski aficionado. She started when she was two years old.

821
00:40:06,120 --> 00:40:08,879
Speaker 13: She's been skiing so when she grew up, she said,

822
00:40:08,920 --> 00:40:11,239
Speaker 13: she used the clothes and fit right. So she used

823
00:40:11,280 --> 00:40:13,120
Speaker 13: to syncham and do all these things, pick up the

824
00:40:13,160 --> 00:40:15,640
Speaker 13: hem and shade them. So now she says she has

825
00:40:15,719 --> 00:40:18,520
Speaker 13: created her own mind. So it's skims and north face.

826
00:40:18,800 --> 00:40:20,120
Speaker 13: I have to check it out. I'm going on a

827
00:40:20,120 --> 00:40:21,560
Speaker 13: ski trip by Christmas.

828
00:40:21,560 --> 00:40:22,240
Speaker 5: Where are you going?

829
00:40:22,560 --> 00:40:24,919
Speaker 13: I'm not you, Sweeney. I go to camel Back.

830
00:40:25,000 --> 00:40:29,160
Speaker 6: Okay, I learned how to ski and camel Back is really.

831
00:40:30,920 --> 00:40:34,360
Speaker 13: Yes. So I haven't checked the price of these, but

832
00:40:34,400 --> 00:40:38,200
Speaker 13: they're coming out. So Kim Kardashian expanding her her little

833
00:40:38,480 --> 00:40:43,680
Speaker 13: Hilemon's warm kind warm. Then you can wear in the

834
00:40:43,719 --> 00:40:46,960
Speaker 13: snow exactly, go very good.

835
00:40:47,200 --> 00:40:47,919
Speaker 6: I'll check that out.

836
00:40:48,239 --> 00:40:50,239
Speaker 13: Okay, so we have we have that right, we have

837
00:40:50,280 --> 00:40:53,240
Speaker 13: the ski wear. But now we go to the men's side. Okay,

838
00:40:53,360 --> 00:40:56,440
Speaker 13: do you any of you have a rich guy jacket?

839
00:40:56,680 --> 00:41:00,920
Speaker 6: Matt Miller doesn't, doesn't of leather.

840
00:41:02,920 --> 00:41:05,080
Speaker 7: Everyone is different, and I just say when I walk

841
00:41:05,120 --> 00:41:06,799
Speaker 7: up to Matt Miller, what animal is that?

842
00:41:06,920 --> 00:41:10,520
Speaker 6: Is it horse? Is it cow? Is it like kangaroo?

843
00:41:10,800 --> 00:41:13,239
Speaker 6: He's got these and they're not cheap. Each one of.

844
00:41:13,200 --> 00:41:16,560
Speaker 7: These are very expensive, but he seems to think they're

845
00:41:16,640 --> 00:41:17,520
Speaker 7: the greatest things, so he.

846
00:41:17,520 --> 00:41:20,040
Speaker 13: May be interested in this. Okay, so they're calling it, yes,

847
00:41:20,080 --> 00:41:22,080
Speaker 13: the risky jacket, But this one's a little different than

848
00:41:22,120 --> 00:41:25,000
Speaker 13: the Matt Miller leather ones. Okay, it's tailored, it's button

849
00:41:25,040 --> 00:41:28,680
Speaker 13: up designs that had that little stand up collar. Sophisticated,

850
00:41:28,760 --> 00:41:31,839
Speaker 13: but you know, a little bit quite formal. It's made

851
00:41:31,880 --> 00:41:36,080
Speaker 13: from cashmere. Some are custom versions by Ermez patch pockets.

852
00:41:36,160 --> 00:41:39,719
Speaker 13: They also have yes, four figure price tags. So this

853
00:41:39,800 --> 00:41:41,680
Speaker 13: may be out of Miller's league.

854
00:41:42,280 --> 00:41:43,960
Speaker 6: No, no, that's right in his relouse.

855
00:41:44,480 --> 00:41:46,680
Speaker 5: Goodness the previous story.

856
00:41:46,800 --> 00:41:49,640
Speaker 3: Yes, I just got a photograph here, miss kardash you

857
00:41:49,719 --> 00:41:57,320
Speaker 3: did in the ship wearing that going down Prema cordishat veil,

858
00:41:57,200 --> 00:41:57,919
Speaker 3: slow veil.

859
00:41:58,360 --> 00:41:59,200
Speaker 6: She's a candle back.

860
00:41:59,320 --> 00:42:03,160
Speaker 13: Probably I can't, yeah, but apparently it keeps you warm.

861
00:42:03,280 --> 00:42:04,879
Speaker 13: I don't know. I would have to test it out

862
00:42:04,920 --> 00:42:11,800
Speaker 13: for myself. But jacket, I know from Kardashians to Richmond Jackets, Okay,

863
00:42:12,680 --> 00:42:14,480
Speaker 13: so now we go to We've been hearing a lot

864
00:42:14,480 --> 00:42:17,480
Speaker 13: of the news right about the NYPD offering rewards. You've

865
00:42:17,520 --> 00:42:20,600
Speaker 13: heard this lately with the suspect who was suspected of

866
00:42:20,640 --> 00:42:23,400
Speaker 13: killing United Healthcare boss Brian Thompson. So where do they

867
00:42:23,440 --> 00:42:25,480
Speaker 13: get the money? And The New York Times actually has

868
00:42:25,520 --> 00:42:29,040
Speaker 13: this good look into it. It's actually not the NYPD,

869
00:42:29,160 --> 00:42:31,520
Speaker 13: but it's from this donor funded New York City Police

870
00:42:31,560 --> 00:42:35,000
Speaker 13: Foundation and they've been doing these rewards since nineteen eighty three.

871
00:42:35,000 --> 00:42:37,560
Speaker 13: They covered more than three million dollars in rewards over

872
00:42:37,600 --> 00:42:39,680
Speaker 13: those over that time. And you know you've heard it

873
00:42:39,760 --> 00:42:42,000
Speaker 13: crime stoppers, right, you always hear that out and about

874
00:42:42,280 --> 00:42:44,439
Speaker 13: they have the tip line. They offer about thirty five

875
00:42:44,480 --> 00:42:47,040
Speaker 13: hundred dollars for information that leads to an en diamond

876
00:42:47,040 --> 00:42:49,080
Speaker 13: for a violent climb. But they upped the anti from

877
00:42:49,080 --> 00:42:52,040
Speaker 13: mister Thompson. They upped it to ten thousand dollars. So

878
00:42:52,080 --> 00:42:53,799
Speaker 13: that's what they have. But it was an interesting look

879
00:42:53,840 --> 00:42:56,160
Speaker 13: at where the money comes from, how long it's been

880
00:42:56,200 --> 00:42:58,719
Speaker 13: in effect, and how the money gets you know, the

881
00:42:58,760 --> 00:43:01,560
Speaker 13: antie gets up as a as a crime.

882
00:43:01,880 --> 00:43:02,359
Speaker 6: For some people.

883
00:43:02,360 --> 00:43:04,120
Speaker 7: I mean, that'd be a big incentive to come forward,

884
00:43:04,120 --> 00:43:06,359
Speaker 7: make a phone call and say hey, I know this guy,

885
00:43:06,360 --> 00:43:07,520
Speaker 7: I've seen this guy or whatever.

886
00:43:07,840 --> 00:43:09,799
Speaker 13: I will say it because now they do have, you know,

887
00:43:09,840 --> 00:43:12,359
Speaker 13: a face of the suspect. So you have a face

888
00:43:12,400 --> 00:43:13,040
Speaker 13: picture out there.

889
00:43:13,200 --> 00:43:13,960
Speaker 6: You know this.

890
00:43:13,960 --> 00:43:18,280
Speaker 7: This news story just highlighted how many cameras around the city.

891
00:43:19,120 --> 00:43:21,000
Speaker 7: You're just I think your foot. You have to assume

892
00:43:21,000 --> 00:43:22,759
Speaker 7: you're being photographed at all times.

893
00:43:22,760 --> 00:43:26,080
Speaker 3: We soon London's like that and we're not, and maybe

894
00:43:26,160 --> 00:43:26,680
Speaker 3: we're wrong.

895
00:43:27,000 --> 00:43:29,360
Speaker 6: Yeah, yeah, so we've seen lots of photographs.

896
00:43:30,440 --> 00:43:32,480
Speaker 13: I do. This is a big take story. I have

897
00:43:32,560 --> 00:43:34,680
Speaker 13: to ask David Gerr about this when he's a big

898
00:43:34,719 --> 00:43:37,960
Speaker 13: take guy. The quest to turn a human waste into

899
00:43:38,000 --> 00:43:41,239
Speaker 13: a cancer treatment, Okay, this is actually happening. It's a

900
00:43:41,239 --> 00:43:45,400
Speaker 13: pharmaceutical manufacturing center in southeast France. It's called Matt Pharma,

901
00:43:45,960 --> 00:43:48,880
Speaker 13: and every few months they get this huge delivery of

902
00:43:49,040 --> 00:43:50,400
Speaker 13: human Can I say poop?

903
00:43:50,600 --> 00:43:50,960
Speaker 6: I don't know.

904
00:43:52,040 --> 00:43:54,600
Speaker 7: We say clue in the Bloomberg business story, Okay, that

905
00:43:54,680 --> 00:43:56,920
Speaker 7: might be the wo okay, the Bloomberg way of proof.

906
00:43:57,040 --> 00:44:00,520
Speaker 13: But it's really precious because the raw ingredient is for

907
00:44:00,560 --> 00:44:03,319
Speaker 13: this medical and treatment to improve the gut health. And

908
00:44:03,360 --> 00:44:06,640
Speaker 13: what this company is a pioneer in is using that

909
00:44:07,160 --> 00:44:10,879
Speaker 13: therapy to treat cancer. So all these donations are coming

910
00:44:10,880 --> 00:44:13,640
Speaker 13: in and they're being used for medical treatment to treat cancer.

911
00:44:13,680 --> 00:44:16,040
Speaker 13: But they take the donations really seriously. I mean it's

912
00:44:16,080 --> 00:44:18,200
Speaker 13: more than when you're giving blood. You have to go

913
00:44:18,239 --> 00:44:21,640
Speaker 13: through this entire process in order to be a donor.

914
00:44:21,760 --> 00:44:24,839
Speaker 7: Donor conditions are more stringent than they are for giving

915
00:44:24,920 --> 00:44:26,040
Speaker 7: blood exactly.

916
00:44:26,880 --> 00:44:30,360
Speaker 13: Yeah, medical examinations, blood drawed, nasal swap, all that you

917
00:44:30,400 --> 00:44:32,480
Speaker 13: have to go through in order to be a donor.

918
00:44:32,600 --> 00:44:34,120
Speaker 13: But it's going to a good cause.

919
00:44:34,200 --> 00:44:37,919
Speaker 3: So YouTube, are you going to costco this week?

920
00:44:38,080 --> 00:44:39,280
Speaker 13: Am I going to even?

921
00:44:39,600 --> 00:44:42,799
Speaker 3: Is it?

922
00:44:43,040 --> 00:44:46,000
Speaker 13: Kind of because everybody is in that whole section where

923
00:44:46,000 --> 00:44:47,040
Speaker 13: all the flee stuff is.

924
00:44:47,360 --> 00:44:50,920
Speaker 6: Well, here's the question. Do you have your Christmas tree yet? I?

925
00:44:50,960 --> 00:44:52,160
Speaker 3: Do you do today?

926
00:44:52,760 --> 00:44:54,400
Speaker 6: You're going today? So we're going this week.

927
00:44:56,080 --> 00:44:57,040
Speaker 5: Contributions.

928
00:44:57,480 --> 00:44:59,960
Speaker 6: I think this is a reasonable time to get your Christmas.

929
00:44:59,719 --> 00:45:01,839
Speaker 13: So you you do the real tree? Yes, and you

930
00:45:01,840 --> 00:45:02,680
Speaker 13: do the real tree.

931
00:45:04,640 --> 00:45:07,360
Speaker 6: I mean she sad like a week ago and she

932
00:45:07,360 --> 00:45:07,719
Speaker 6: has her.

933
00:45:07,719 --> 00:45:08,800
Speaker 5: Kids carrier tree.

934
00:45:08,920 --> 00:45:09,120
Speaker 6: Yeah.

935
00:45:09,280 --> 00:45:13,160
Speaker 5: I hate delivery of course, walking across London.

936
00:45:13,000 --> 00:45:15,000
Speaker 6: Yep, I know, you know, going through the tube.

937
00:45:15,719 --> 00:45:19,120
Speaker 13: I do the fake tree zero.

938
00:45:19,320 --> 00:45:21,840
Speaker 5: Are you kidding me? That's on America.

939
00:45:21,920 --> 00:45:28,560
Speaker 13: Thank you, you have a little it's already, it's already a.

940
00:45:28,520 --> 00:45:33,440
Speaker 6: Little just puts a couple of bulbs on there and

941
00:45:33,480 --> 00:45:33,799
Speaker 6: she's good.

942
00:45:34,800 --> 00:45:37,440
Speaker 3: Listen to a Tale of the Fake Tree. Thank you

943
00:45:37,520 --> 00:45:39,400
Speaker 3: for the newspapers.

944
00:45:39,680 --> 00:45:44,120
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,

945
00:45:44,280 --> 00:45:48,400
Speaker 2: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday,

946
00:45:48,480 --> 00:45:51,360
Speaker 2: seven to ten a m Eastern on Bloomberg dot com,

947
00:45:51,480 --> 00:45:55,080
Speaker 2: the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app.

948
00:45:55,360 --> 00:45:58,440
Speaker 2: You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube

949
00:45:58,719 --> 00:46:00,520
Speaker 2: and always on the Bloomberg terminal