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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game. Do us proud

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Speaker 1: read enough? They're running a game.

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Speaker 2: So smoothe so sweet, Sidi sixting, just glorious.

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Speaker 3: Ex procution, guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent

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Speaker 3: effort four thousand percent.

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Speaker 1: Of the time. How shot with that? Shop with mind, buddy,

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Speaker 1: and that's why you see your as beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 2: Look at his movements the most.

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Speaker 3: Dangerous amount of the planet.

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Speaker 1: Nobody picks them. Shut up, I'm trying.

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Speaker 2: The wall.

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Speaker 1: It's left too. The wide eyed drill bibews, how old

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Speaker 1: Earth pick that happens? Hello, and welcome to Wondergol, the

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Speaker 1: soccer betting podcast from the Action Network. My name is

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Speaker 1: Michael Lee Buff and today I'll be joined by my

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Speaker 1: Action colleagues BJ Cunningham and Anthony Dbundo, and together the

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Speaker 1: three of us will handicap all sixteen Champions League matches

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Speaker 1: coming up on Tuesday and Wednesday. But before we get

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Speaker 1: to the board, just a quick reminder that we are

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Speaker 1: still holding a contest and all you need to do

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Speaker 1: to enter said contest is leave us a nice review

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Speaker 1: on the wonder Gold podcast feed, and in that review

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Speaker 1: put your Twitter handle, and if you do that, you

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Speaker 1: will automatically be entered into a raffle to win the

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Speaker 1: soccer jersey of your choice from this season. With that

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Speaker 1: out of the way, let's dive into Tuesday's Champions League

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Speaker 1: headliner from Bergamo Italy at Alanta plus one seventy five

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Speaker 1: home underdogs taking on Manchester United. They're plus one forty

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Speaker 1: the draw currently sitting at plus two to eighty. This

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Speaker 1: is a Tuesday four pm kickoff. I don't know how

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Speaker 1: else to describe Manchester United and Ole Gunner soulshar besides

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Speaker 1: a roller coaster. Get battered by Liverpool five nil, come

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Speaker 1: back and then beat Tottenham three nil in Elsaka Coo.

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Speaker 1: It's all over the place for this team. I kind

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Speaker 1: of think they're worth a look here too, as a

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Speaker 1: favorite on the road against Atlanta BJ. What about you?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree. I have Manchester United projected at minus

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Speaker 2: one twenty. I mean, like you said, they're a roller coaster.

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Speaker 2: The problems aren't aren't gone, They're still there. But in

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Speaker 2: this match against Atlanta a couple weeks ago, they were

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Speaker 2: the better team. They won unexpected goals two point eight

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Speaker 2: to one point two. They outshot Atlanta twenty two to thirteen.

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Speaker 2: Had more touches in box entries. But the big thing

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Speaker 2: about Manchester United is the return of Rafael Verona is

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Speaker 2: huge for their defense, solidifying it because Harry maguire has

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Speaker 2: been incredibly out of form, so having him pairing along

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Speaker 2: with them makes things.

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Speaker 1: A little bit better for the Red Devils.

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Speaker 2: Also, this is kind of more of a bet against Atlanta,

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Speaker 2: who has had problems when they've had to face opponents

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Speaker 2: that are either on their level or better than them.

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Speaker 2: In their five matches against Virial, Manchester United, A cy

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Speaker 2: Milan Inter and Lazio this season, Atlanta has allowed thirteen

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Speaker 2: point eighty six expected goals and they're also eleventh and

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Speaker 2: non penalty expected goals allowed in Syria, a twelfth and

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Speaker 2: big scoring chances allowed. They obviously scored on their only

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Speaker 2: two big scoring chances against Manchester United, but after they

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Speaker 2: went up to nothing, they only created point four expected

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Speaker 2: goals for the final sixty minutes and Manchester United's attack

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Speaker 2: you know, they may have lost on expected goals to Tottenham,

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Speaker 2: but they are lethal going forward with Ronaldo. So again

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Speaker 2: I have Manchester United projected at minus one twenty, so

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Speaker 2: I think there's some good value on their drawn o

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Speaker 2: bet line at minus one twenty.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think you kind of hit on it right,

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Speaker 1: Like these are two very flawed teams, and when you

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Speaker 1: put two very flawed teams together, why not take the

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Speaker 1: one with more finishing talent? And United definitely has that.

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Speaker 1: And I also think like the defensive issues that both

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Speaker 1: clubs have makes for a good bet on the over,

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Speaker 1: which is currently sitting at three minus one twenty five.

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Speaker 1: I'll probably look at both United and the over if possible,

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Speaker 1: So I think, yeah, I think this is a fun

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Speaker 1: one to bet, Anthony, how do you see it?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's all about Atlanta. Atalanta's man marketing system. It's

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Speaker 3: a nightmare against teams like Manchester United who have the

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Speaker 3: runners who can run in behind. Marcus Rashford Christiano Ronaldo

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Speaker 3: both found a lot of space in the first flag

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Speaker 3: and I think they're expecting to have a lot more

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Speaker 3: space too against Atlanta's high line. Here two point eight

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Speaker 3: expected goals in the first leg. Defensively, United also looked

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Speaker 3: much more organized in the game against Tottenham. They played

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Speaker 3: three to five to two, switched up the formation through

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Speaker 3: Varan in there with McGuire and Lindelof. It relieves some

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Speaker 3: pressure in the midfield, and the other issue that they

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Speaker 3: really did, or the other solution they kind of had

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Speaker 3: against Tottenham was that they put it in st Cavani

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Speaker 3: in the lineup with Ronaldo. Cavani does more running, he

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Speaker 3: pressures the ball more, He does a lot more defensive

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Speaker 3: work than Ronaldo does. He kind of helps fill the

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Speaker 3: void that Ronaldo has if you play a four to

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Speaker 3: two three to one, which they had really been struggling

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Speaker 3: with in recent weeks. So I'm interested to see what

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Speaker 3: Ola does here. Does he go back to the same

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Speaker 3: formation I think he will, and if he does, I

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Speaker 3: really like United here on the drawing of Bet line

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Speaker 3: as well. It was their best defensive performance on Saturday

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Speaker 3: since September eleventh against Newcastle and it was a clear

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Speaker 3: response with the players that they want Ola around. All

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Speaker 3: that combines into a spot here where I like United.

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Speaker 3: I like the stylist matchup against Atlanta as well, So

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Speaker 3: give me United on the drawno Bet line. Gonna wait

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Speaker 3: for lineups probably to play it, but I think it's

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Speaker 3: a good look here if we see at Cavani and

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Speaker 3: Ronaldo get another startup top.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, you touched on it in our Premier League preview

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Speaker 1: that this will kind of be or the win against

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Speaker 1: Tottenham would kind of be a good gauge into how

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Speaker 1: this team feels about playing four Ala because he could

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Speaker 1: have easily been out of a job had they had

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Speaker 1: they really thrown it against Tottenham. And now look they

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Speaker 1: beat Atlanta and then they play Manchester City next weekend,

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Speaker 1: and I mean the whole narrative for the season could

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Speaker 1: change with a couple positive results for the Red Devils.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's move on to the other match in

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Speaker 1: Group F. That's Via Real. They're minus one eighty five

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Speaker 1: at home against Young Boys who are five to one

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Speaker 1: the draw, sitting at plus three point fifty. This is

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Speaker 1: another four pm kickoff. This group is on a tight rope, right,

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Speaker 1: man United at the top at six points. Then Via

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Speaker 1: Real and Adelanta both tied at four, Young Boys at three,

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Speaker 1: So it can go one hundred different ways. So this

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Speaker 1: game be kind of interesting from a game theory standpoint, right,

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Speaker 1: I think Young Boys probably will be on trying to

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Speaker 1: be on the front foot and nick a win. This

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Speaker 1: is probably what they think is maybe their best opportunity

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Speaker 1: to get three more points in their pocket to perhaps

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Speaker 1: against the odds, get out of this group. But I

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Speaker 1: don't see it. I think the only way I'd be

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Speaker 1: interested in betting this is taking via Real on an

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Speaker 1: alt line. BJ. Do you see anything else in this?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm kinda I'm kind of staring at young boys

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Speaker 2: over one and a half goals at plus two or five.

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Speaker 2: I mean, they mean they lost four to one, but

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Speaker 2: they created two point seventy four expected goals against vi Real.

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Speaker 2: Viel's had some issues defensively. They've allowed one point three

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Speaker 2: four expected goals for match to young boys you know

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Speaker 2: in the Swiss super League or averaging over two expected goals,

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Speaker 2: and like you said, they're gonna have to be on

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Speaker 2: the front foot, they're gonna have to go for all

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Speaker 2: three points. So I wouldn't, you know, especially at that

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Speaker 2: big of a price. I kind of do like over

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Speaker 2: one and a half goals and I might get added.

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Speaker 2: As we're doing this podcast right now.

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Speaker 1: I always like when that happens live and in the studio,

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Speaker 1: betting on young boys team total over. What a beautiful,

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Speaker 1: beautiful show we have going here. All right, we'll move

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Speaker 1: on Ruby Byron minus five twenty five against Benfica. They're

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Speaker 1: twelve to one. The draw is at seven to one.

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Speaker 1: This is a four pm kickoff in Germany. The three

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Speaker 1: of us were all about Benfica in the previous meeting

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Speaker 1: a couple of weeks ago. It looked okay for a

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Speaker 1: little bit, and then Byron scored about one hundred goals

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Speaker 1: in six minutes to win one hundred to nil. Byron,

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Speaker 1: I mean, I can't keep doing this, like, I just

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Speaker 1: can't keep going against them. We always you always hear

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Speaker 1: that the definition of insanity is doing the same thing

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Speaker 1: over and over again and expecting a different result. But

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna do it. I think I'll probably take a

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Speaker 1: nibble on Benfica on the money line at twelve to one.

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Speaker 1: They think there's a couple things here, Like Byron are

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Speaker 1: basically in. They're at nine points. They've had some weird,

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Speaker 1: weird results over the past couple weeks, including a five

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Speaker 1: ny ol loss to Glodbach in a Cup. I think,

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Speaker 1: if you're just looking at from a pure value standpoint,

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Speaker 1: there's a smidge of value on Benfica on the money line.

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Speaker 1: It's hard to ever suggest there's not on a twelve

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Speaker 1: to one team in the Champions League. But I also

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Speaker 1: like to live over saw it last game. Byron could

170
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Speaker 1: just turn it on and turn a game on its

171
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Speaker 1: head in a matter of no time, and Benfica will

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Speaker 1: need to at least try to get a result if

173
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Speaker 1: they fall behind, So this game could could kind of

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Speaker 1: go back and forth a little bit, So I might

175
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Speaker 1: try to play it live over, but I'll definitely be

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Speaker 1: on the Benfica money line at some point, Anthony, what

177
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Speaker 1: about you?

178
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Speaker 2: Yeah?

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Speaker 3: Cash to Byron Fade had to do it in the

180
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Speaker 3: DFB pokyle. If you follow me on Twitter or in

181
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Speaker 3: the app, you know my love of watching Gladbach and

182
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Speaker 3: that was that was a history result for the Foles.

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Speaker 3: We're incredibly proud of that one, and I think they

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Speaker 3: exposed some weaknesses that exist in as Byron team as

185
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Speaker 3: it's set up defensively, a lot of the Bundesliga teams

186
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Speaker 3: haven't quite taken advantage of it. But we're starting to

187
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Speaker 3: see some some leakiness from Bayern. The expected goal is

188
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Speaker 3: allowed have ticked up a little bit. Hoffenheim created a

189
00:08:46,280 --> 00:08:49,160
Speaker 3: few chances against them, almost scored a couple of times.

190
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Speaker 3: Unil Berlin got two it the weekend or a little

191
00:08:52,760 --> 00:08:55,839
Speaker 3: over one expected goal in that match for them, So

192
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Speaker 3: I'm not expecting Byron to continue to be this good defensively,

193
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Speaker 3: so I like both teams to score here. Benfica showed

194
00:09:03,120 --> 00:09:05,360
Speaker 3: some ability on the counter against Barcelona. I think they'll

195
00:09:05,360 --> 00:09:06,880
Speaker 3: be able to show some ability on the counter here.

196
00:09:07,120 --> 00:09:08,880
Speaker 3: You go back to the last match, they probably should

197
00:09:08,920 --> 00:09:10,400
Speaker 3: have got one. Noyer made a couple of lost and

198
00:09:10,480 --> 00:09:13,560
Speaker 3: saves to keep them level. I mean, Benfica was nearly

199
00:09:13,559 --> 00:09:15,800
Speaker 3: ahead in that game. So I like both team to

200
00:09:15,840 --> 00:09:18,120
Speaker 3: score here minus one twenty quite a bit. I think

201
00:09:18,520 --> 00:09:21,520
Speaker 3: Byron still rolls. They still win this game, and they

202
00:09:21,559 --> 00:09:23,599
Speaker 3: still pretty much clinched the group with a win, but

203
00:09:24,760 --> 00:09:25,840
Speaker 3: Benfica will get on the board.

204
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Speaker 1: And an interesting thing if they do win and get

205
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Speaker 1: to twelve points and basically clinch the group, it'll be

206
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Speaker 1: fun to bet again against them again in the next

207
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Speaker 1: two matches. BJ. Are you hopping on the Byron fade

208
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Speaker 1: train the pain train here, or are you just gonna

209
00:09:41,520 --> 00:09:42,800
Speaker 1: finally learn your lesson?

210
00:09:43,400 --> 00:09:47,800
Speaker 2: I'm done. I've waved wife flag, They've they've finally they've

211
00:09:47,840 --> 00:09:50,280
Speaker 2: finally beaten me, and they've beaten me into submissions so

212
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Speaker 2: many times that I'm done. I mean, really, what it

213
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Speaker 2: was from a projection standpoint is that Byron way overformed

214
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Speaker 2: offensively last season, but this year they're a lot closer

215
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Speaker 2: to their expected goals and what their actuals are to call,

216
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Speaker 2: you know, thirty eight goals off of thirty four point

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Speaker 2: two eight expected goals. You know it said, it's still

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Speaker 2: really that's incredible in ten matches and they've only allowed

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Speaker 2: eight point zero seven non penalty expected goals. So and

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Speaker 2: you know, beneficat they didn't look great in their last

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Speaker 2: two domestic matches, only one point seventy to nine expected

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Speaker 2: goals total in against two inferior opponents in Portugal. So

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Speaker 2: it's a pass for me. Byron's overvalued, but just gonna

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Speaker 2: move on with my life and act like they don't

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Speaker 2: exist anymore.

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Speaker 1: You're stronger man than I am. It's not going to

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Speaker 1: be fun, right, Let's move on to the other match

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Speaker 1: in this group Group E. Like I said, Byron, there

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Speaker 1: at the top nine points Benfica at four, Barcelona three,

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Speaker 1: Dinamo Kiev. They still have a chance to get out too.

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Speaker 1: There at one point and they'll be hosting Barcelona. Dinamo

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Speaker 1: is plus four twenty five underdog Barcelona minus one fifty

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Speaker 1: five road favorite, and then the draw plus three ten.

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Speaker 1: This is another four PM kickoff on Tuesday. Barcelona, they're

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Speaker 1: least four matches. They one nil against this Dinamo team,

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Speaker 1: then they lost two one in El Classic, go to

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Speaker 1: Real Madrid, they lost one nil to Ryo Bacano, and

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Speaker 1: then they drew one one with Ovis and they don't

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Speaker 1: have Ronald Cooman in charge anymore. Javi is on his

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Speaker 1: way from the Middle East, but he's not there yet.

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Speaker 1: I just am gonna keep going against Barcelona. It's been

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Speaker 1: working recently, so I'm just gonna take a shot on

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Speaker 1: Dinamo plus four to twenty five on the money line,

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Speaker 1: hope that one of these teams gets upset. Favorites were

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Speaker 1: fifteen and one straight up in the last round of

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Speaker 1: the Champions League fifteen to one. The only favorite that

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Speaker 1: dinn and cash was I think Seville against lil and

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Speaker 1: that was a draw. So it just maybe there's a

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Speaker 1: little bit of regression. I hope to god there's a

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Speaker 1: little bit of regression here, back to some normalcy. But

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Speaker 1: it also doesn't bode well that these are the exact

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Speaker 1: same matchups except flip the home and away team. So

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Speaker 1: who knows, But yeah, I'll take Dinamo here as another

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Speaker 1: little nibble, Anthony, I know You've been trying to get

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Speaker 1: behind this Barcelona team and you haven't really had an

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Speaker 1: opportunity to do so. Is this your finally your chance

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Speaker 1: to get to get going on them.

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Speaker 3: Oh yeah, we're in Barcelona minus one, plus one, twenty.

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Speaker 3: Bring the pain, give it to me. I stayed away

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Speaker 3: from backing Barcelona, even though I wanted to. In the Classico,

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Speaker 3: they lost it despite winning the expected goals battle. Vacano

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Speaker 3: was a nice win for them, but you know Memphis.

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Speaker 3: Between Memphis missing the penalty and then a numerous other

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Speaker 3: chances going awry, Barsia really unfortunate there. And then against

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Speaker 3: Olive's they were marginally better, which I would argue is

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Speaker 3: a poor result for Barcelona against Olives, you know, mid

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Speaker 3: table Spanish side, but at home. But now they get

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Speaker 3: a chance to really, you know, beat up on a

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Speaker 3: very inferior opponent who offered absolutely nothing. The first time

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Speaker 3: these two teams played, it really should have been two,

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Speaker 3: maybe three to zero. In the last game when Barcelona

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Speaker 3: played Kiev, and I'm expecting them, despite going on the

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Speaker 3: road here to roll and look to make a statement victory.

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Speaker 3: I know Javi is not in yet. They're kind of

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Speaker 3: a managerial flux. But this is a moment to buy

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Speaker 3: low on Barcelona. We bought low on them in the

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Speaker 3: last Champions leage show when we got them to advance.

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Speaker 3: I still think they're going to advance. I think they're

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Speaker 3: going to roll here. So Barcelona minus one plus one twenty.

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Speaker 3: They're still first in La Liga in non penalty expected

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Speaker 3: goals for ninety going forward and they're allowing the second

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Speaker 3: few at shots, so they're not you know, there's not

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Speaker 3: alarming numbers and their underlying stuff. They're not as dominant

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Speaker 3: as they've been, but there's not a ninth place lega team.

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Speaker 3: They're heading for some positive regression and I'm hoping that

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Speaker 3: starts on Tuesday.

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Speaker 1: BJ. What do you have for this one.

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna go back to we had the under last

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Speaker 2: time these seth plane. I'm gonna go back to it

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Speaker 2: under two and a half at plus one fifteen. I mean,

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Speaker 2: Anthony hit the nail on the head. Offensively, Barcelona has

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Speaker 2: been much better than the results have shown. Their last

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Speaker 2: three matches against Viacano, Real Madrid and now Base they've

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Speaker 2: created six points seven to six goals but have only

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Speaker 2: scored twice. Defensively, they're only allowing point nine to one

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Speaker 2: non penalty expected goals per match, and Dinomo Kiev, just

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Speaker 2: like Anthey said, offers absolutely nothing going forward. They only

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Speaker 2: had point one expected goals in that match. They've only

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Speaker 2: created one point zero two total expected goals in their

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Speaker 2: three Champions League matches. They're bottom five and pretty much

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Speaker 2: every single offensive metric that we look at for all

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Speaker 2: the Champions League teams combined. But defensively they're actually pretty good,

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Speaker 2: especially domestically. They are only allowing point six expected goals

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Speaker 2: per match in the Ukrainian Premier League, and they do

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Speaker 2: have a couple of young talented defenders like you know,

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Speaker 2: Ilia Zabarni who started for Ukraine and the Euros. It's

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Speaker 2: also going to be forty five degrees in rainy in

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Speaker 2: Kiev on Tuesday, so I think that plays into a

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Speaker 2: low scoring game, especially since it's the first match that

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Speaker 2: Barcelona's played in chilly temperatures this season. So yeah, I

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Speaker 2: only have two point one to nine goals projected, so

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Speaker 2: I think there's some value on under two and a

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Speaker 2: half goals at plus one fifteen?

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Speaker 1: Can Barcelona do it on a tough night in Kiev?

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Speaker 1: I don't I didn't look at the weather in the Ukraine.

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Speaker 1: Yet I know it was daylight savings time for them

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Speaker 1: too this week, so you never know what the travel

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Speaker 1: in Europe. Maybe Barcelona's a little jet lagged. Let's move

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Speaker 1: on a Group G which there's been two games in

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Speaker 1: this group that have not ended up as a draw.

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Speaker 1: This is my kind of competition. Man Salsburg there the top,

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Speaker 1: seven points. Sevilla three points with three draws. Got I

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Speaker 1: love that team so much, little two points, Wolfsburg with

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Speaker 1: two points Wolfsburg they host Salsburg and the match we'll

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Speaker 1: talk about right now. Wolfsburg plus one forty five at home,

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Speaker 1: Salsburg plus one seventy five, the draw plus two seventy five.

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Speaker 1: This is a one forty five pm kickoff on Tuesday,

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Speaker 1: so I want to action on it because it's one

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Speaker 1: of the early kickoffs. I'm going to back Wolfsburg. I

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Speaker 1: think this is more play against Salzburg. I think maybe

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Speaker 1: they're a little bit overrated in the spot when you

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Speaker 1: look at the two teams. Yeah, Salsburg has a ton

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Speaker 1: of young emerging talent and these players will all end

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Speaker 1: up next season being on playing for really good teams

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Speaker 1: in Germany and France and England and whatever, But I

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Speaker 1: still think, you know, you look, if you just look

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Speaker 1: at these two teams in a vacuum, especially with Wolfsburg

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Speaker 1: at home, plus one forty five is probably good number,

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Speaker 1: So I'll take it. They've not been a great team

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Speaker 1: in Bundesliga. They started hot, they lost what three or

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Speaker 1: four in a row, and then they won against Leverkusen,

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Speaker 1: an overrated lever Cuson team over the weekend, So I'll

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Speaker 1: hope that maybe that builds some momentum and Wolfsburg they

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Speaker 1: need to win, so why not go for it? Their

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Speaker 1: solid defensive team two and also Salisburg three out of

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Speaker 1: their six goals in the Champions League from PK's So

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Speaker 1: give me Wolfsburg in this one at home plus one

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Speaker 1: forty five, Anthony, are you joining me?

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Speaker 3: I lean that way. My numbers are pretty right on

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Speaker 3: what the market is, so I'm probably gonna end up passing.

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Speaker 3: If we see some late salzburg S team like we

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Speaker 3: did in the first leg, I'll definitely be hopping in

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Speaker 3: on Wolfsburg anything pick them even money or better, and

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Speaker 3: so I'll definitely be looking there. But this is all

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Speaker 3: about Wolfsburg's offensive progression. They finally got on the board.

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Speaker 3: They lost four in a row in the Bundesliga, but

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Speaker 3: it was more a matter of just not taking their chances,

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Speaker 3: not as much playing worse. They started the season with

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Speaker 3: four wins in the Bundesliga. They were actually ahead of

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Speaker 3: Bayern at one point, but they were running well above

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Speaker 3: their expected goals. Then they had a horrible stretch where

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Speaker 3: they were running well below their expected goals and water

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Speaker 3: found its level a little bit this weekend against Leverkusen

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Speaker 3: with that two Naer win. The reality is they're still

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Speaker 3: an excellent defensive team. They've looked a little bit vulnerable

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Speaker 3: in the Champions League away from home, but they were

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Speaker 3: solid at home against Sevilla and their only home match

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Speaker 3: they played. They're still the fourth best defense by expected

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Speaker 3: goals in the Bundesliga and second fewish shots allowed per nineties.

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Speaker 3: So I still like this Wolfsburg defense. Here to shut

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Speaker 3: down Salzburg's attack, which found a lot of space and

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Speaker 3: transition at home, I don't think they'll quite have as

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Speaker 3: much space, makes some tactical adjustments from van Bamo, and

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Speaker 3: so I leaned towards Wolfsburg, but I need a better price,

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Speaker 3: so I'm gonna wait and see what we can get.

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Speaker 1: Two other really solid defensive teams will meet in the

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Speaker 1: other fixture in Group G. That's Sevilla at their minus

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Speaker 1: one fifty at home. They're taking on Lil plus fourth

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Speaker 1: to seventy five the draw plus two to seventy five

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Speaker 1: four pm on Tuesday. You can't keep me away from

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Speaker 1: the draw on this one. You just can't. Five out

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Speaker 1: of their six results for these two teams combined the

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Speaker 1: Champions League have been a draw. Combined. These two teams

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Speaker 1: have allowed four goals in six matches. We know what

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Speaker 1: Sevilla could do defensively, we know what Lil could do defensively.

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Speaker 1: This is a this screams low event. One to one

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Speaker 1: nil nil game plus two to seventy five is such

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Speaker 1: a good price for a draw, I think in this matchup. So, Anthony,

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Speaker 1: are you going to be joining me or do you

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Speaker 1: think there's actually going to be a little bit more

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Speaker 1: chaos than what I'm calling for?

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Speaker 3: And let's say inject some chaos into this group a

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Speaker 3: little bit. Both teams to score, yes, plus one hundred

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Speaker 3: My numbers minus one oh seven. So not a ton

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Speaker 3: of value there, to be honest, But I like this

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Speaker 3: from a narrative point of view, and the reason for

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Speaker 3: that is, both these teams need results. Draws are not

398
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Speaker 3: going to get it done anymore. And the reality is

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Speaker 3: that I think Leo has to come out and play

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Speaker 3: a little bit. They need a result here, knowing the

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Speaker 3: upcoming fixtures and knowing that they're sitting in last place

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Speaker 3: right now, and so I'm expecting a more aggressive leele

403
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Speaker 3: a Leal team that has shown more going forward this

404
00:18:49,480 --> 00:18:52,480
Speaker 3: year in some spots, and Alleal team that is, while

405
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Speaker 3: still good defensively, should be conceding more than they are

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Speaker 3: right now. The reality is I have the write up

407
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Speaker 3: for this game, so I'll have a more in depth

408
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Speaker 3: preview on the Action Network app and on the website

409
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Speaker 3: on Monday for the Tuesday game. But I'm going to

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Speaker 3: be going with the teams to score here because I

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Speaker 3: think finally we're going to get some goals in this group.

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Speaker 3: I think this game is going to be the first

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Speaker 3: one that opens up e J.

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Speaker 1: Are you more in line with me here, sleepy beautiful

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Speaker 1: tactical chess match or do you think it's going to

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Speaker 1: be a rock concert like Anthony's coming for Yeah, I'm.

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Speaker 2: Just I'll be honest. I know both teams kind of

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Speaker 2: have to go for this match, But I'm a little

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Speaker 2: confused because I'm looking at the closing line from when

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Speaker 2: they played two weeks ago, the draw was plus two

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Speaker 2: five and under two and a half goals was minus

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Speaker 2: one seventy five. Well, like you said, the draws plus

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Speaker 2: two to seventy five now and under two and a

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Speaker 2: half goals is only minus one thirty five. So yes,

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Speaker 2: both teams kind of have to go for this. But

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Speaker 2: this was a really sleepy game last time. They put

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Speaker 2: only one point seventy nine total expected goals created by

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Speaker 2: both teams. And you know, we talked about LIL at

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Speaker 2: length last week on the Premier League Pod when they

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Speaker 2: were playing PSG. They're due for a lot of positive

431
00:19:52,760 --> 00:19:56,000
Speaker 2: aggression Defensively, They've only allowed ten point six to nine

432
00:19:56,160 --> 00:20:00,400
Speaker 2: expected goals off of eighteen this year, and they're also

433
00:20:00,400 --> 00:20:02,600
Speaker 2: have allowed the fewest big scoring chances in League One,

434
00:20:02,960 --> 00:20:04,960
Speaker 2: and Anthony will like this one from an even game

435
00:20:05,040 --> 00:20:08,120
Speaker 2: state this year, they're only allowing point eight eight expected

436
00:20:08,160 --> 00:20:12,360
Speaker 2: goals per ninety minutes, so they're pretty good defensively when

437
00:20:12,359 --> 00:20:14,920
Speaker 2: it is either when it's zero zero pretty much, and

438
00:20:15,520 --> 00:20:17,960
Speaker 2: Sevilla is even a better defensive team, only point seven

439
00:20:17,960 --> 00:20:20,320
Speaker 2: to six non penalty expected goals allowed per match, which

440
00:20:20,359 --> 00:20:23,639
Speaker 2: is second in Ladliga. They're also third and shots allowed

441
00:20:23,680 --> 00:20:26,159
Speaker 2: per ninety first and box entries allowed. And you know,

442
00:20:26,440 --> 00:20:29,239
Speaker 2: last time these two teams faced off only only had

443
00:20:29,320 --> 00:20:32,679
Speaker 2: thirty five touches in the penalty area twenty four box entries.

444
00:20:33,320 --> 00:20:35,680
Speaker 2: For the little comparison, i AX is averaging forty three

445
00:20:35,800 --> 00:20:38,199
Speaker 2: touches in the opponent's penalty and twenty six box centries

446
00:20:38,800 --> 00:20:41,359
Speaker 2: per match this Champions League campaign. So I only have

447
00:20:41,920 --> 00:20:44,200
Speaker 2: one point sixty nine goals projected for this one. So

448
00:20:45,040 --> 00:20:46,920
Speaker 2: I love under two and a half goals at minus

449
00:20:46,960 --> 00:20:48,800
Speaker 2: one thirty five. I understand both teams kind of have

450
00:20:48,880 --> 00:20:51,919
Speaker 2: to play for this, but I'm just a little confused

451
00:20:52,000 --> 00:20:53,840
Speaker 2: why the odds on the draw and the under have

452
00:20:54,800 --> 00:20:55,720
Speaker 2: gone down so much.

453
00:20:56,200 --> 00:20:58,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think you answered your own question there, which

454
00:20:58,200 --> 00:21:01,080
Speaker 1: is that the bookmakers know that betters are gonna think,

455
00:21:01,119 --> 00:21:02,920
Speaker 1: all right, this is gonna be a more open game

456
00:21:03,000 --> 00:21:05,840
Speaker 1: because both teams should be going after it. I actually

457
00:21:05,880 --> 00:21:08,480
Speaker 1: wonder if they will, right. You got Salisburg at the

458
00:21:08,520 --> 00:21:11,880
Speaker 1: top with seven, Savia three lil and Wolfsburg at two,

459
00:21:12,000 --> 00:21:14,480
Speaker 1: so a draw keeps them both in it rather than

460
00:21:14,600 --> 00:21:16,640
Speaker 1: you know, so if it is a game that's hanging

461
00:21:16,680 --> 00:21:19,240
Speaker 1: in the balance in like the sixtieth minute. I wouldn't

462
00:21:19,280 --> 00:21:21,800
Speaker 1: be surprised if neither club kind of goes for it

463
00:21:22,080 --> 00:21:25,320
Speaker 1: because a loss could be catastrophic compared to eight, because

464
00:21:25,320 --> 00:21:27,480
Speaker 1: you're giving those points to a team you're directly competing with,

465
00:21:27,760 --> 00:21:30,800
Speaker 1: compared to a draw. So for me, yeah, I'll take

466
00:21:30,840 --> 00:21:33,320
Speaker 1: the draw on this one. If you've been listening to

467
00:21:33,520 --> 00:21:35,560
Speaker 1: the show and it's Nascent Journey, you know that I

468
00:21:35,640 --> 00:21:38,480
Speaker 1: love betting Sevilla draws, so I'll go right back to it.

469
00:21:39,000 --> 00:21:42,520
Speaker 1: Group Bach Juventus at the top with nine points, Chelsea six,

470
00:21:42,960 --> 00:21:45,920
Speaker 1: Zenet Saint Petersburg at three, Mamo at the foot of

471
00:21:45,960 --> 00:21:48,800
Speaker 1: the table. They have gooseg points.

472
00:21:49,119 --> 00:21:49,879
Speaker 2: They are the.

473
00:21:49,880 --> 00:21:52,320
Speaker 1: Biggest underdog on the board this week. They're twelve to

474
00:21:52,400 --> 00:21:55,520
Speaker 1: one home underdogs against Chelsea who are minus five hundred

475
00:21:55,880 --> 00:21:57,840
Speaker 1: the draw plus six fifty. This is a one forty

476
00:21:57,880 --> 00:22:01,320
Speaker 1: five pm kickoff in Sweden. BJ, I mean I got nothing,

477
00:22:01,400 --> 00:22:03,080
Speaker 1: so I'm not doing it. I'm not going back to

478
00:22:03,080 --> 00:22:07,119
Speaker 1: this Malmmel team ever again. Dead to me, BJ, just

479
00:22:07,760 --> 00:22:08,120
Speaker 1: you can.

480
00:22:08,080 --> 00:22:11,199
Speaker 2: Take yeah, let's go under three goals of plus one

481
00:22:11,200 --> 00:22:15,320
Speaker 2: oh five. I mean Malmo they are offering nothing offensively

482
00:22:15,440 --> 00:22:17,880
Speaker 2: going forward. They only had two shots and point zero

483
00:22:18,000 --> 00:22:20,320
Speaker 2: seven expected goals against Chelsea the last time these two

484
00:22:20,320 --> 00:22:22,879
Speaker 2: teams met. They don't even have the talent even close

485
00:22:22,920 --> 00:22:25,600
Speaker 2: to challenge. Chelsea's backline, which we've talked about at length,

486
00:22:25,720 --> 00:22:28,320
Speaker 2: is do for negative progression, but it's not going to

487
00:22:28,400 --> 00:22:31,800
Speaker 2: come against Malmo in the Champions League. Care but Chelsea

488
00:22:31,880 --> 00:22:34,200
Speaker 2: offensively is also due for some negative aggression.

489
00:22:34,240 --> 00:22:34,560
Speaker 1: This season.

490
00:22:34,600 --> 00:22:36,960
Speaker 2: They've scored twenty six goals off of eighteen point seven

491
00:22:36,960 --> 00:22:39,600
Speaker 2: to two expected goals in the Premier League, and even

492
00:22:40,000 --> 00:22:43,000
Speaker 2: in this match against Malmo last time, one point five

493
00:22:43,080 --> 00:22:46,240
Speaker 2: of Chelsea's two point sixty seven expectacles came off of penalties,

494
00:22:46,280 --> 00:22:48,560
Speaker 2: and outside of those two penalties, they didn't register a

495
00:22:48,600 --> 00:22:51,159
Speaker 2: shout with next year rating over point one two. And

496
00:22:51,280 --> 00:22:54,480
Speaker 2: also Ramul Lucco and Timour are still out for the

497
00:22:54,560 --> 00:22:56,280
Speaker 2: Chelsea so that's going to make things more difficult for

498
00:22:56,320 --> 00:22:59,040
Speaker 2: them offensively. And I also question how much Malmo is

499
00:22:59,160 --> 00:23:00,760
Speaker 2: even really going to care about this match. I know

500
00:23:00,800 --> 00:23:02,040
Speaker 2: it's the Champions League, I know it's one of the

501
00:23:02,040 --> 00:23:06,320
Speaker 2: biggest matches for their club, but they the Swedish First

502
00:23:06,359 --> 00:23:08,959
Speaker 2: Division only has four matches left in their domestic campaign,

503
00:23:08,960 --> 00:23:10,720
Speaker 2: and I'm only as a one point or one point

504
00:23:10,840 --> 00:23:13,840
Speaker 2: lead over the second place, and it really doesn't look

505
00:23:13,880 --> 00:23:15,399
Speaker 2: like there's even a shot they're going to finish in

506
00:23:15,480 --> 00:23:19,160
Speaker 2: third and get to the Europa League Round of sixteen.

507
00:23:19,280 --> 00:23:21,960
Speaker 2: So I think they're going to park the bus and

508
00:23:22,680 --> 00:23:26,080
Speaker 2: just pray for a zero zero draw. So I mean,

509
00:23:26,119 --> 00:23:28,000
Speaker 2: I only have two point six to eight goals projected

510
00:23:28,040 --> 00:23:30,120
Speaker 2: for this one, so I think there is some value

511
00:23:30,119 --> 00:23:31,359
Speaker 2: on under three goals of plus one o.

512
00:23:31,480 --> 00:23:33,600
Speaker 1: Five the team that they would be competing with for

513
00:23:33,720 --> 00:23:35,719
Speaker 1: that third place spot at least right now. That's then

514
00:23:35,720 --> 00:23:38,680
Speaker 1: at Saint Petersburg they're plus five to fifty underdogs on

515
00:23:38,760 --> 00:23:41,800
Speaker 1: the road at Juventus minus one ninety the draw plus

516
00:23:42,520 --> 00:23:45,520
Speaker 1: three to twenty. You've ays been struggling in Syria A.

517
00:23:45,680 --> 00:23:49,640
Speaker 1: They're winless in their last three matches. Domestically, they they've

518
00:23:49,640 --> 00:23:51,960
Speaker 1: looked all right in Champions League. Obviously they got nine

519
00:23:52,000 --> 00:23:55,080
Speaker 1: points out of a possible nine. But you gotta wonder,

520
00:23:55,240 --> 00:23:58,840
Speaker 1: is this Anthony's this Juventus team? Should they be priced

521
00:23:59,119 --> 00:24:01,359
Speaker 1: the way they are, which which is like they are

522
00:24:02,000 --> 00:24:04,320
Speaker 1: one of the better teams in this competition, I guess,

523
00:24:04,440 --> 00:24:07,359
Speaker 1: or and they definitely are being priced like they're on

524
00:24:07,440 --> 00:24:09,880
Speaker 1: par with Chelsea in this group. They're three points ahead

525
00:24:09,880 --> 00:24:11,399
Speaker 1: of them. But I think the results are kind of

526
00:24:11,440 --> 00:24:14,880
Speaker 1: skewing what their actual level is. So I do wonder

527
00:24:14,920 --> 00:24:18,120
Speaker 1: if there's some value going against Uventus here and maybe

528
00:24:18,200 --> 00:24:19,880
Speaker 1: going forward for the rest of US competition.

529
00:24:20,359 --> 00:24:21,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, I do actually think there's a little bit of

530
00:24:22,000 --> 00:24:24,600
Speaker 3: value going against Uventus here. A five thirty eight model

531
00:24:24,600 --> 00:24:26,800
Speaker 3: has youve at fifty two percent to win this, and

532
00:24:27,560 --> 00:24:29,360
Speaker 3: the line has them at about minus one eighty, which

533
00:24:29,400 --> 00:24:32,320
Speaker 3: is a little under sixty five. So you're getting a

534
00:24:32,359 --> 00:24:34,480
Speaker 3: lot of value here. According to some production models. I

535
00:24:34,520 --> 00:24:37,400
Speaker 3: believe BJ has Uventus at minus one oh four as well,

536
00:24:37,560 --> 00:24:40,240
Speaker 3: so all of us are seeing Juventus is overrated. You

537
00:24:40,320 --> 00:24:42,480
Speaker 3: go back to the first leg. Uventus scored a lake

538
00:24:42,560 --> 00:24:44,800
Speaker 3: goal in a match that was otherwise very much even

539
00:24:45,320 --> 00:24:48,640
Speaker 3: you've a in Italy hasn't been all that impressive either.

540
00:24:48,800 --> 00:24:51,800
Speaker 3: They've improved defensively in some respects in the sense that

541
00:24:51,920 --> 00:24:53,639
Speaker 3: they have you know, they had a three or four

542
00:24:53,680 --> 00:24:55,320
Speaker 3: matches in a row they didn't concede a goal, but

543
00:24:55,520 --> 00:24:58,120
Speaker 3: the expected numbers weren't all that good in those games.

544
00:24:58,119 --> 00:25:00,359
Speaker 3: They were allowing about one expected goal per match in

545
00:25:00,440 --> 00:25:03,320
Speaker 3: those three or four games, and then they go, you know,

546
00:25:03,400 --> 00:25:07,520
Speaker 3: in the midweek, they play against Soswolo, they lose, you know,

547
00:25:07,640 --> 00:25:11,080
Speaker 3: in stoppage time, pretty much deserved probably a draw there,

548
00:25:11,160 --> 00:25:13,840
Speaker 3: but a late counter attack does them in and so

549
00:25:14,240 --> 00:25:15,959
Speaker 3: I'm not really and then they lose to Verona at

550
00:25:15,960 --> 00:25:18,880
Speaker 3: the weekend, so they're really struggling here. I think they're overvalued.

551
00:25:19,280 --> 00:25:22,280
Speaker 3: Allegri hasn't quite gotten it to work yet, and I'm

552
00:25:22,280 --> 00:25:24,640
Speaker 3: not sure he ever is with this current level of talent,

553
00:25:24,760 --> 00:25:26,399
Speaker 3: and so I'm going to look to play against Uventus.

554
00:25:26,440 --> 00:25:28,160
Speaker 3: They are going to Chelsea in a couple of weeks.

555
00:25:28,400 --> 00:25:29,600
Speaker 3: I think it's going to be a good spot for

556
00:25:29,680 --> 00:25:32,760
Speaker 3: Chelsea as well, and so I think Chelsea still probably

557
00:25:32,760 --> 00:25:35,560
Speaker 3: takes this group. So if you're looking for some odds there,

558
00:25:35,600 --> 00:25:38,000
Speaker 3: I believe they're underdogs right now because you they won

559
00:25:38,000 --> 00:25:41,320
Speaker 3: the first leg in Turin, but I think Zenet may

560
00:25:41,359 --> 00:25:43,080
Speaker 3: steal a point here. So I like them plus one

561
00:25:43,200 --> 00:25:45,760
Speaker 3: minus one ten. If you're looking and you're not invested

562
00:25:45,760 --> 00:25:47,520
Speaker 3: in Chelsea at this point, it's not a bad idea

563
00:25:47,560 --> 00:25:50,080
Speaker 3: to get on them as perhaps a derivative here to

564
00:25:50,200 --> 00:25:52,120
Speaker 3: win the group. As an underdog right.

565
00:25:52,000 --> 00:25:54,800
Speaker 1: Now, Yeah, I like that. I think like this event

566
00:25:54,880 --> 00:25:56,840
Speaker 1: to see wasn't very good last year, and I know

567
00:25:57,000 --> 00:26:00,159
Speaker 1: everyone kind of bleamed pure though for that in it

568
00:26:00,320 --> 00:26:03,200
Speaker 1: was a weird higher and kind of a sacrificial lamb

569
00:26:03,440 --> 00:26:05,480
Speaker 1: for a team coming on the wrong side of the mountain.

570
00:26:06,400 --> 00:26:09,639
Speaker 1: But they haven't really shown much improvement under Allegri, who

571
00:26:09,680 --> 00:26:12,560
Speaker 1: obviously won about one hundred scadetos with them in a row.

572
00:26:13,359 --> 00:26:15,359
Speaker 1: BJ are you gonna make it three for three here

573
00:26:15,400 --> 00:26:18,040
Speaker 1: on Zenate and watch this one go up in flames

574
00:26:18,040 --> 00:26:19,440
Speaker 1: as Juventus wins like five?

575
00:26:19,600 --> 00:26:22,639
Speaker 2: No, yeah, that sounds like fun to me. I mean

576
00:26:23,119 --> 00:26:26,760
Speaker 2: zen It has actually since the loss to Juventus has

577
00:26:26,840 --> 00:26:29,320
Speaker 2: been really really good back to back matches in the

578
00:26:29,400 --> 00:26:31,879
Speaker 2: Russian Premier League to beat Spartak Moscow seven to one

579
00:26:32,280 --> 00:26:34,080
Speaker 2: and Dinamo Moscow five to one. Those are the third

580
00:26:34,080 --> 00:26:36,960
Speaker 2: and fourth best defenses in Russia based on expected goals.

581
00:26:37,280 --> 00:26:39,000
Speaker 2: Now it does look like their best player, Malcolm is

582
00:26:39,160 --> 00:26:41,159
Speaker 2: questionable to play in this match, but he wasn't in

583
00:26:41,200 --> 00:26:43,680
Speaker 2: the lineup for those last two matches, and this Zenate

584
00:26:43,720 --> 00:26:46,320
Speaker 2: defense is only long point eight eight non penalty expected

585
00:26:46,320 --> 00:26:49,280
Speaker 2: goals for match. Domestically this season also Juventus. They haven't

586
00:26:49,280 --> 00:26:51,760
Speaker 2: scored more than one goal in a meaningful competition since

587
00:26:51,800 --> 00:26:56,240
Speaker 2: September twenty sixth, so their offense has really been struggling. Defensively,

588
00:26:56,560 --> 00:26:59,320
Speaker 2: their tenth and non penalty expected goals allowed eighth and

589
00:26:59,320 --> 00:27:02,320
Speaker 2: shots for nine twelveth in box entries allowed, so it's

590
00:27:02,400 --> 00:27:04,800
Speaker 2: not really that great of a defense or and it's

591
00:27:04,800 --> 00:27:06,920
Speaker 2: an offense that's really struggling. Also a funnettle note, and

592
00:27:06,920 --> 00:27:10,199
Speaker 2: they lost to Verona. Diego Simeoni's kid was the one

593
00:27:10,200 --> 00:27:13,040
Speaker 2: who scored both goals to beat Juventus. So we'll be

594
00:27:13,040 --> 00:27:15,040
Speaker 2: talking about Diego Simoni coming up in a little bit.

595
00:27:15,119 --> 00:27:17,760
Speaker 2: But yeah, I totally agree with you guys. I, like

596
00:27:17,800 --> 00:27:20,360
Speaker 2: Anthony mentioned all, I have Uventus projected at minus one four,

597
00:27:20,480 --> 00:27:23,840
Speaker 2: so I'll get hurt by Zenit again and take them

598
00:27:23,840 --> 00:27:26,720
Speaker 2: plus one at minus one ten, hopefully.

599
00:27:26,480 --> 00:27:28,919
Speaker 1: By by Tuesday. By this time this match kicks off

600
00:27:29,040 --> 00:27:31,080
Speaker 1: on Tuesday. I have you both convinced to join me

601
00:27:31,160 --> 00:27:32,919
Speaker 1: on this money line, because I think there's a ton

602
00:27:32,960 --> 00:27:36,400
Speaker 1: of value there. All right, let's flip the page to Wednesday.

603
00:27:36,640 --> 00:27:40,440
Speaker 1: You mentioned him just two seconds ago. Diego Simeoni, God

604
00:27:40,560 --> 00:27:43,320
Speaker 1: love him, God bless him. One of the great characters

605
00:27:43,400 --> 00:27:46,680
Speaker 1: in soccer. His Atletico Madrid R Plus four twenty five

606
00:27:46,880 --> 00:27:52,159
Speaker 1: road underdogs heading to Anfield minus one sixty favorites Liverpool

607
00:27:52,920 --> 00:27:55,119
Speaker 1: the draws plus three twenty. This is a four pm kickoff,

608
00:27:55,320 --> 00:27:58,960
Speaker 1: so you're gonna hear so much about European Night at Anfield,

609
00:27:59,040 --> 00:28:01,440
Speaker 1: and that means that Theverpool's probably going to get steamed

610
00:28:01,560 --> 00:28:04,520
Speaker 1: before this match kicks off, because people love to buy

611
00:28:04,560 --> 00:28:07,280
Speaker 1: into that narrative, buy into the cop being an impossible

612
00:28:07,320 --> 00:28:10,000
Speaker 1: place to play, Fortress and field as they like to

613
00:28:10,040 --> 00:28:11,600
Speaker 1: call it. Before they lost like six games in a

614
00:28:11,720 --> 00:28:16,120
Speaker 1: row last year. Fair enough, they did win about seventy

615
00:28:16,400 --> 00:28:18,520
Speaker 1: in a row before that, but whatever. You can't be

616
00:28:18,560 --> 00:28:21,800
Speaker 1: losing home matches to Burnley and call something fortress and field.

617
00:28:22,280 --> 00:28:25,840
Speaker 1: I digress. These matches are always bonkers between these two teams.

618
00:28:25,960 --> 00:28:29,200
Speaker 1: I think about going not just what habits on the field,

619
00:28:29,240 --> 00:28:32,880
Speaker 1: but off the field. We had the last match before COVID,

620
00:28:33,200 --> 00:28:35,800
Speaker 1: we had what happened last match with the two teams

621
00:28:35,920 --> 00:28:38,680
Speaker 1: playing back and forth to Liverpool goes up quick, then

622
00:28:38,680 --> 00:28:40,360
Speaker 1: gives up a lead, which they did last weekend to

623
00:28:40,400 --> 00:28:42,480
Speaker 1: Brighton two. So maybe a little bit of a worrying

624
00:28:42,560 --> 00:28:45,560
Speaker 1: trend there and then Diego Simeoni runs off before the handshake,

625
00:28:45,560 --> 00:28:48,280
Speaker 1: which people don't realize he does that to everybody. He's

626
00:28:48,360 --> 00:28:50,440
Speaker 1: that's not just like a him thing with Jurgen Klop

627
00:28:51,160 --> 00:28:54,240
Speaker 1: he finds I love this. He finds the post match

628
00:28:54,280 --> 00:28:57,440
Speaker 1: handshake to be performative and kind of empty, whereas what

629
00:28:57,520 --> 00:28:58,520
Speaker 1: he likes to do is he likes to have his

630
00:28:58,560 --> 00:29:02,240
Speaker 1: conversations with deposing manager in the tunnel afterwards, share a drink.

631
00:29:02,480 --> 00:29:05,760
Speaker 1: What a wonderful, wonderful man. I like that. LETTI here

632
00:29:05,880 --> 00:29:08,360
Speaker 1: for twenty five. I'm just gonna do it fun bet.

633
00:29:08,960 --> 00:29:13,160
Speaker 1: Probably gonna lose, but this is a good team. I

634
00:29:13,280 --> 00:29:15,200
Speaker 1: know they get a little lucky. They kind of pull

635
00:29:15,240 --> 00:29:17,120
Speaker 1: results out of the hat, but they've done that forever

636
00:29:17,200 --> 00:29:19,960
Speaker 1: under SIMIONI. So I'm going back to Letty here. I'm

637
00:29:20,000 --> 00:29:22,520
Speaker 1: on the pain train with them. Anthony, what about you?

638
00:29:23,000 --> 00:29:26,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, two teams. I faded this weekend and I'm looking

639
00:29:26,760 --> 00:29:30,479
Speaker 3: to fade Liverpool again. This midfield has issues. They've had

640
00:29:30,560 --> 00:29:34,000
Speaker 3: issues the last few matches. They obviously had that impressive

641
00:29:34,080 --> 00:29:37,320
Speaker 3: victory against Manchester United, but there were troubling signs defensively.

642
00:29:37,360 --> 00:29:39,080
Speaker 3: They can see it. A lot of shots, a lot

643
00:29:39,160 --> 00:29:41,400
Speaker 3: of space and a lot of chances to Man United.

644
00:29:41,880 --> 00:29:43,320
Speaker 3: They can see it. A lot of shots, a lot

645
00:29:43,360 --> 00:29:44,920
Speaker 3: of space and a lot of chances to brighten at

646
00:29:44,920 --> 00:29:46,680
Speaker 3: the weekend. If you go back to the first match

647
00:29:46,800 --> 00:29:51,440
Speaker 3: these two teams played in Madrid, same thing. The Kaita

648
00:29:51,600 --> 00:29:56,280
Speaker 3: Milner Henderson midfield is a very aggressive midfield from klop.

649
00:29:56,440 --> 00:29:58,240
Speaker 3: It's not one that offers a lot of protection for

650
00:29:58,320 --> 00:30:00,640
Speaker 3: the defensive line. It's not one that offers a lot

651
00:30:00,680 --> 00:30:04,040
Speaker 3: of ball winning ability. Given Henderson's declining ability to run.

652
00:30:04,720 --> 00:30:07,840
Speaker 3: And we don't know the status of Fabinho and Tiago yet.

653
00:30:08,240 --> 00:30:10,600
Speaker 3: They may be back, but if I'm Liverpool, I'm not

654
00:30:10,920 --> 00:30:13,760
Speaker 3: running them out there unnecessarily and playing them extra minutes

655
00:30:13,800 --> 00:30:16,120
Speaker 3: in a game they don't need to win. A draw

656
00:30:16,280 --> 00:30:19,320
Speaker 3: will do for Liverpool here at home, who pretty much

657
00:30:19,320 --> 00:30:20,920
Speaker 3: has a vice grip on the group. As long as

658
00:30:20,920 --> 00:30:23,000
Speaker 3: they take care of business and the other matches and

659
00:30:23,080 --> 00:30:25,600
Speaker 3: don't lose, they should win this group comfortably. I think

660
00:30:25,640 --> 00:30:27,440
Speaker 3: they're minus four hundred or something to win this group.

661
00:30:27,880 --> 00:30:31,320
Speaker 3: I like Adleti plus one. Adleti has shown me improved

662
00:30:31,360 --> 00:30:35,080
Speaker 3: attacking ability this year, both in La Liga and in

663
00:30:35,160 --> 00:30:37,360
Speaker 3: the Champions League, with their ability to create chances. They

664
00:30:37,640 --> 00:30:40,200
Speaker 3: did really well in that last match, both off of

665
00:30:40,280 --> 00:30:43,320
Speaker 3: set pieces and in transition, where I think Liverpool is

666
00:30:43,400 --> 00:30:45,720
Speaker 3: very vulnerable. So I think a Leti keeps this close,

667
00:30:46,080 --> 00:30:48,120
Speaker 3: maybe Liverpool sneaks a result out and to push, but

668
00:30:48,200 --> 00:30:50,160
Speaker 3: I think ad Letti will be able to get a

669
00:30:50,200 --> 00:30:53,400
Speaker 3: point here. And they are the more desperate team in

670
00:30:53,480 --> 00:30:56,000
Speaker 3: this situation because they're the ones now fighting with Porto

671
00:30:56,120 --> 00:30:59,720
Speaker 3: for second, whereas Liverpool has pretty much clinched the groups.

672
00:31:00,520 --> 00:31:01,920
Speaker 3: I like a Lati plus one.

673
00:31:02,160 --> 00:31:02,680
Speaker 2: In this spot.

674
00:31:03,440 --> 00:31:06,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, Letty only have allowed more than one expect a

675
00:31:06,800 --> 00:31:09,120
Speaker 1: goal four times out of thirteen matches a season. So

676
00:31:09,600 --> 00:31:12,480
Speaker 1: when you talk about Liverpool's dynamic offense, this is a

677
00:31:12,520 --> 00:31:14,800
Speaker 1: team that is built to be able to handle it

678
00:31:15,480 --> 00:31:18,360
Speaker 1: at least stick with them. So that's why. Yes, do

679
00:31:18,480 --> 00:31:20,600
Speaker 1: I think that a Letigo Madrid's going to win this match? No,

680
00:31:20,840 --> 00:31:23,200
Speaker 1: but I think they do win it more than their

681
00:31:23,600 --> 00:31:27,480
Speaker 1: implied odds on the money line. Suggest BJ come on

682
00:31:27,880 --> 00:31:31,160
Speaker 1: and join us and diego Simioni on this wonderful adventure

683
00:31:31,480 --> 00:31:32,080
Speaker 1: to anfield.

684
00:31:32,600 --> 00:31:34,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, let's do it again. I mean, really, what we

685
00:31:35,000 --> 00:31:37,840
Speaker 2: saw the gam match against Brighton is just how vulnerable

686
00:31:37,920 --> 00:31:40,760
Speaker 2: Liverpool and are in transition with the midfield of Henderson,

687
00:31:40,800 --> 00:31:44,160
Speaker 2: ox Le Chamberlain and Curtis Jones. They just Brightened just

688
00:31:44,240 --> 00:31:46,040
Speaker 2: torched them in the second half. And we all know

689
00:31:46,120 --> 00:31:48,640
Speaker 2: Brighten's the best team in the world. But it was

690
00:31:48,720 --> 00:31:50,920
Speaker 2: really concerning for Erin Klopp and I think it's going

691
00:31:51,000 --> 00:31:52,840
Speaker 2: to be even more concerning in this match because Athletic

692
00:31:52,880 --> 00:31:56,120
Speaker 2: Co Madrid really should have beaten Liverpool in the last meeting.

693
00:31:56,200 --> 00:31:58,360
Speaker 2: They won unexpected goals one point nine to four to

694
00:31:58,480 --> 00:32:01,000
Speaker 2: one point two three and that was with an Antoine

695
00:32:01,040 --> 00:32:03,680
Speaker 2: Greensman red card in the fifty second minute, and if

696
00:32:03,720 --> 00:32:05,480
Speaker 2: you take away the most solid penalty in the seventy

697
00:32:05,520 --> 00:32:08,160
Speaker 2: eighth minute, Liverpool only created point four to nine expected

698
00:32:08,160 --> 00:32:09,960
Speaker 2: goals off of ten shots in the match, which is

699
00:32:10,120 --> 00:32:12,680
Speaker 2: really really bad and we also talked about it on

700
00:32:12,760 --> 00:32:15,200
Speaker 2: the Premier League podcast. But Liverpool's do for a little

701
00:32:15,200 --> 00:32:18,400
Speaker 2: bit of regression defensively. They've only allowed eight goals off

702
00:32:18,440 --> 00:32:22,160
Speaker 2: of eleven point zero five expectacles and Athletico Madrid's defense

703
00:32:22,320 --> 00:32:24,840
Speaker 2: is still playing at an elite level. They're number one

704
00:32:24,960 --> 00:32:27,480
Speaker 2: in La Liga non penalty expected goals allowed, their first

705
00:32:27,520 --> 00:32:29,840
Speaker 2: in shots allowed per ninety second and big scoring chances

706
00:32:29,880 --> 00:32:32,480
Speaker 2: allowed and second in box entries allowed. So with an

707
00:32:32,520 --> 00:32:35,600
Speaker 2: extremely thin midfield, they're going up against it against a

708
00:32:35,640 --> 00:32:38,760
Speaker 2: team that is basically built off of hitting teams on

709
00:32:38,840 --> 00:32:41,440
Speaker 2: the counter. This is a really bad matchup for Liverpool.

710
00:32:41,520 --> 00:32:44,480
Speaker 2: So I'm with Anthony. I love Athletico Madrid at plus one.

711
00:32:44,480 --> 00:32:47,480
Speaker 2: I only have Liverpool Liverpool projected at plus one twenty two.

712
00:32:47,640 --> 00:32:50,000
Speaker 2: So give me Athletic c Madrid plus one at minus

713
00:32:50,040 --> 00:32:50,640
Speaker 2: one thirty five.

714
00:32:51,240 --> 00:32:53,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, this should be a fun one And if you're

715
00:32:53,440 --> 00:32:58,400
Speaker 1: rooting for Chaos Group B, you'll probably want Liverpool to lose.

716
00:32:58,600 --> 00:33:00,360
Speaker 1: That would put because right now they're at nine points,

717
00:33:00,400 --> 00:33:03,600
Speaker 1: Atletico at four, Porto at four, Milan at zero. If

718
00:33:03,760 --> 00:33:07,840
Speaker 1: Porto beats Milan and Atletico beats Liverpool nine seven seven,

719
00:33:08,120 --> 00:33:10,080
Speaker 1: then you've got a lot of meetingful matches and then

720
00:33:10,160 --> 00:33:12,640
Speaker 1: Milan obviously at the foot of the table, playing just

721
00:33:12,680 --> 00:33:16,240
Speaker 1: trying to play spoiler. Speaking of ac Milan, there plus

722
00:33:16,320 --> 00:33:19,600
Speaker 1: one ten home favorites against Porto plus two sixty. The

723
00:33:19,760 --> 00:33:22,360
Speaker 1: draw is plus two fifty. This is the one forty

724
00:33:22,360 --> 00:33:26,640
Speaker 1: five pm kickoff on Wednesday. Milan are really weird because

725
00:33:26,680 --> 00:33:30,560
Speaker 1: they've been pretty good in Syria. They've been terrible, like

726
00:33:30,720 --> 00:33:35,280
Speaker 1: abject in Champions League. Anthony, I think you are going

727
00:33:35,360 --> 00:33:38,000
Speaker 1: to tell me that this Milan team is not worth

728
00:33:38,480 --> 00:33:39,840
Speaker 1: believing in in this matchup.

729
00:33:40,400 --> 00:33:42,160
Speaker 3: They're not and this is a market over reaction. I

730
00:33:42,160 --> 00:33:45,320
Speaker 3: don't know what it's a reaction to, but even if

731
00:33:45,360 --> 00:33:48,680
Speaker 3: you factor out home and away when these two teams played,

732
00:33:49,520 --> 00:33:53,320
Speaker 3: Milan is now way overvalued and so they have gone

733
00:33:53,400 --> 00:33:56,040
Speaker 3: from You know, I had Porto. I think j I

734
00:33:56,080 --> 00:33:58,080
Speaker 3: also had Porto. In the first time these two teams played.

735
00:33:58,240 --> 00:34:01,080
Speaker 3: Porto outshot them twenty one to four in the first

736
00:34:01,160 --> 00:34:03,040
Speaker 3: like it was complete domination. They hit the post twice,

737
00:34:03,080 --> 00:34:05,280
Speaker 3: could have easily won two or three to zero. They

738
00:34:05,280 --> 00:34:07,800
Speaker 3: expected goals were one point three to point one, so

739
00:34:07,960 --> 00:34:10,000
Speaker 3: it was complete domination. Milan barely got out of their

740
00:34:10,000 --> 00:34:13,000
Speaker 3: own half. And Milan played a week team in that game,

741
00:34:13,040 --> 00:34:15,920
Speaker 3: and they will have some guys backs. Alton I Byemovic

742
00:34:16,520 --> 00:34:19,560
Speaker 3: had a goal in the game that they've beat Roma

743
00:34:19,640 --> 00:34:22,439
Speaker 3: on Sunday. He scored from twenty five on a free kick.

744
00:34:22,680 --> 00:34:26,080
Speaker 3: They scored on a penalty against Roma. They scored on

745
00:34:26,160 --> 00:34:29,120
Speaker 3: a set piece against Torino in the midweek, so their

746
00:34:29,200 --> 00:34:31,640
Speaker 3: last three goals have come from set pieces or penalties.

747
00:34:31,960 --> 00:34:34,080
Speaker 3: The attack just has not been there for me that

748
00:34:34,239 --> 00:34:37,839
Speaker 3: the numbers aren't a pretty concerning down trend across the board,

749
00:34:38,280 --> 00:34:40,080
Speaker 3: and so I'm looking to play against them yet again.

750
00:34:40,120 --> 00:34:43,759
Speaker 3: Here against a very stout, very sturdy Porto defense who

751
00:34:44,640 --> 00:34:48,480
Speaker 3: looked a little terrible against Liverpool, which has historically been

752
00:34:48,520 --> 00:34:51,160
Speaker 3: a terrible matchup for them. But the other two matches

753
00:34:51,200 --> 00:34:54,719
Speaker 3: in the group, against Atletico Madrid and against Milan, they

754
00:34:54,760 --> 00:34:58,240
Speaker 3: were far the better side, dominating both of those matches.

755
00:34:58,360 --> 00:35:01,120
Speaker 3: Unlucky to lose, unlucky to not beat Lettie, and then

756
00:35:01,160 --> 00:35:04,800
Speaker 3: did beat Milan. So you have a stout Porto defense

757
00:35:04,840 --> 00:35:06,400
Speaker 3: that's going to give them all on the ball, keep

758
00:35:06,440 --> 00:35:09,000
Speaker 3: them out of transition, make them break down a low block,

759
00:35:09,280 --> 00:35:10,799
Speaker 3: and then Porto's going to look to hit on the counter.

760
00:35:11,840 --> 00:35:14,040
Speaker 3: Milan's gonna have to be aggressive, You're to open themselves up.

761
00:35:14,080 --> 00:35:15,959
Speaker 3: I think that creates chances for Porto on the counter.

762
00:35:16,640 --> 00:35:18,839
Speaker 3: So Porto plus a half is minus one twenty. That's

763
00:35:18,840 --> 00:35:20,160
Speaker 3: where I'm on this match.

764
00:35:21,000 --> 00:35:23,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't see anything on the game lines yet.

765
00:35:23,880 --> 00:35:26,880
Speaker 1: I think i'd probably want to bet Porto if anything,

766
00:35:27,880 --> 00:35:29,560
Speaker 1: But if you are going to bet Milan, you might

767
00:35:29,600 --> 00:35:31,360
Speaker 1: as well take a look at them plus eight to

768
00:35:31,360 --> 00:35:33,080
Speaker 1: fifty to qualify out of the group. Because if they

769
00:35:33,080 --> 00:35:34,880
Speaker 1: do win this match, if you think there they are

770
00:35:34,960 --> 00:35:37,919
Speaker 1: going to win this match and Ben Liverpool beats that, Letty,

771
00:35:37,960 --> 00:35:41,200
Speaker 1: you're setting yourself up for a kind of winner takes all,

772
00:35:41,239 --> 00:35:44,759
Speaker 1: winner will advance. Match between Milan and at Letti in

773
00:35:44,840 --> 00:35:47,520
Speaker 1: a couple of weeks. Let's move on to Group A.

774
00:35:48,960 --> 00:35:51,320
Speaker 1: This has been basically our bogie group because PSG is

775
00:35:51,360 --> 00:35:53,880
Speaker 1: in it and we keep trying to beat them. PSG's

776
00:35:53,880 --> 00:35:57,000
Speaker 1: at the top seven points. City Manchester City is at

777
00:35:57,080 --> 00:36:00,640
Speaker 1: six points at second Club Bruges at four points in third.

778
00:36:01,280 --> 00:36:05,040
Speaker 1: RBI Leipzig Jesse Marsh the American has them at zero

779
00:36:05,280 --> 00:36:07,840
Speaker 1: points at the foot of the table. Basically need to

780
00:36:07,960 --> 00:36:10,520
Speaker 1: run the table to advance. They're plus two to twenty

781
00:36:10,600 --> 00:36:14,399
Speaker 1: five home underdogs two Paris Saint Germaine, who are plus

782
00:36:14,480 --> 00:36:17,040
Speaker 1: one ten the draws plus two ninety five A four

783
00:36:17,120 --> 00:36:21,040
Speaker 1: pm kickoff. Here another Albert Einsteinian game where it's the

784
00:36:21,120 --> 00:36:24,000
Speaker 1: definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and

785
00:36:24,040 --> 00:36:26,640
Speaker 1: over again expecting different results. I feel like these two

786
00:36:26,640 --> 00:36:28,359
Speaker 1: teams have played each other one hundred times this season,

787
00:36:28,400 --> 00:36:30,480
Speaker 1: and I bet RBI Leipzig all one hundred and they've

788
00:36:30,520 --> 00:36:33,240
Speaker 1: lost all one hundred. That's just how it feels Benny

789
00:36:33,239 --> 00:36:37,480
Speaker 1: against this PSG team in this competition. I don't think

790
00:36:37,560 --> 00:36:40,040
Speaker 1: the number is really big enough for me to get

791
00:36:40,080 --> 00:36:42,960
Speaker 1: involved with Leipzig, but I feel like you two will

792
00:36:43,280 --> 00:36:45,719
Speaker 1: maybe convince me, so I'll start with you BJ. Bring

793
00:36:45,840 --> 00:36:48,040
Speaker 1: me on board with that rotten bowlin.

794
00:36:48,360 --> 00:36:51,719
Speaker 2: Yeah. RBI Leipzig plus half a goal of mine twenty

795
00:36:51,760 --> 00:36:53,919
Speaker 2: five is one of my favorite be's of this entire

796
00:36:54,000 --> 00:36:56,760
Speaker 2: Champions League, not only this week, maybe the entire campaign,

797
00:36:56,840 --> 00:36:59,759
Speaker 2: because we've been banging the table for a long time

798
00:37:00,400 --> 00:37:03,799
Speaker 2: just saying this PSG team is not good. Yes, they

799
00:37:03,880 --> 00:37:06,040
Speaker 2: have an incredible front three, but outside of that, it

800
00:37:06,200 --> 00:37:10,520
Speaker 2: is a very very average midfield and defense. And they

801
00:37:10,719 --> 00:37:13,360
Speaker 2: really really should not have beaten ARBI Leipsig in that

802
00:37:13,480 --> 00:37:15,600
Speaker 2: last match. You know, it was three to two, and

803
00:37:15,640 --> 00:37:18,359
Speaker 2: you'll see the final expected goals line was three point

804
00:37:18,440 --> 00:37:20,800
Speaker 2: zero three to two point three six in favor of PSG.

805
00:37:21,120 --> 00:37:24,920
Speaker 2: But most of what PSG did came off of two

806
00:37:25,000 --> 00:37:27,720
Speaker 2: penalties and Messi tappan on a shot that was probably

807
00:37:27,760 --> 00:37:31,439
Speaker 2: going in anyway. They through their first three Champions League matches,

808
00:37:31,480 --> 00:37:33,880
Speaker 2: they're in first place with seven points, but they have

809
00:37:33,960 --> 00:37:38,480
Speaker 2: a negative point four expected goal differential. That's terrible and

810
00:37:38,719 --> 00:37:41,319
Speaker 2: for them to still be a third favorite to win

811
00:37:41,360 --> 00:37:44,279
Speaker 2: the Champions League is crazy to me. Also, especially in

812
00:37:44,360 --> 00:37:46,680
Speaker 2: this match, they're dealing with a lot of injuries right now.

813
00:37:46,760 --> 00:37:50,160
Speaker 2: Sergio Ramos and Marco Varazzi and Andrew Paradise are all

814
00:37:50,160 --> 00:37:52,680
Speaker 2: out for this one. Messi and and Bope are both questionable.

815
00:37:52,760 --> 00:37:56,200
Speaker 2: But Bape missed the last match against LIL and Messi

816
00:37:56,280 --> 00:37:58,200
Speaker 2: got subbed off at halftime. We don't really know why,

817
00:37:59,560 --> 00:38:01,279
Speaker 2: but you know, the reports out of that might be

818
00:38:01,400 --> 00:38:05,120
Speaker 2: somewhat of an injury. Rby Leipsig, I mean, listen, their

819
00:38:05,160 --> 00:38:06,840
Speaker 2: defense is having a lot of problems right now, but

820
00:38:07,040 --> 00:38:09,200
Speaker 2: their offense is still there. They're averaging two point two

821
00:38:09,400 --> 00:38:12,239
Speaker 2: expected goals for match in the Bundesliga. They're fourth and

822
00:38:12,280 --> 00:38:15,240
Speaker 2: shots per ninety second in box entries and have created

823
00:38:15,480 --> 00:38:18,080
Speaker 2: and they created three big scoring chances against PSG in

824
00:38:18,160 --> 00:38:19,880
Speaker 2: that meeting two weeks ago. And you know, even if

825
00:38:19,880 --> 00:38:21,359
Speaker 2: we look at the box score from that match two

826
00:38:21,400 --> 00:38:24,040
Speaker 2: weeks ago, rby Pleipsig had more shot creating actions, more

827
00:38:24,120 --> 00:38:27,320
Speaker 2: touches in the penalty area, more box entries, plus this

828
00:38:27,440 --> 00:38:29,279
Speaker 2: is it for Arby Pleipzig. They have to get three

829
00:38:29,320 --> 00:38:31,000
Speaker 2: points from this one if they want any shot of

830
00:38:31,080 --> 00:38:33,120
Speaker 2: finishing in third place and maybe going to the Europa

831
00:38:33,160 --> 00:38:36,160
Speaker 2: League Round of sixteen. So I actually have Rby Weipzig

832
00:38:36,200 --> 00:38:39,200
Speaker 2: projected as a plus one fourteen favorite. If you look

833
00:38:39,239 --> 00:38:41,400
Speaker 2: at five thirty eight, they also have Rby Pleipsig at

834
00:38:41,440 --> 00:38:45,320
Speaker 2: forty four percent. So I think it is crazy that

835
00:38:45,440 --> 00:38:47,480
Speaker 2: PSG is a favorite on the road in Germany. So

836
00:38:47,520 --> 00:38:50,080
Speaker 2: give me Rby Leipzig plus half a goal at minus

837
00:38:50,120 --> 00:38:50,760
Speaker 2: one twenty.

838
00:38:50,600 --> 00:38:54,279
Speaker 1: Five, Anthony, I feel like it would be kind of

839
00:38:54,280 --> 00:38:56,719
Speaker 1: against your religion as a soccer fan to bet on

840
00:38:56,880 --> 00:38:59,360
Speaker 1: PSG here, So I'm assuming you're you're going to be

841
00:38:59,440 --> 00:38:59,879
Speaker 1: joining DJ.

842
00:39:01,000 --> 00:39:03,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, so long as this game is tied

843
00:39:03,640 --> 00:39:06,279
Speaker 3: or or Leipsig is ahead, I love where we're at.

844
00:39:06,360 --> 00:39:09,120
Speaker 3: If we fall behind. If Leipzig falls behind and PSG's

845
00:39:09,160 --> 00:39:11,279
Speaker 3: able to sit deep, absorb pressure and counter against this

846
00:39:11,400 --> 00:39:14,480
Speaker 3: Leipzig team, it could get ugly. That is the disclaimer

847
00:39:14,560 --> 00:39:16,400
Speaker 3: in the warning that comes with betting this game, because

848
00:39:16,440 --> 00:39:18,759
Speaker 3: I think if you get Leipzig ahead or behind and

849
00:39:18,840 --> 00:39:21,160
Speaker 3: they have to chase this game, PSG is a lethal

850
00:39:21,239 --> 00:39:23,920
Speaker 3: counter attacking side can cause a lot of problems. But

851
00:39:24,600 --> 00:39:26,719
Speaker 3: in this spot, I think you have to look to

852
00:39:26,800 --> 00:39:29,879
Speaker 3: Leipzig as well. We talked about this two weeks ago.

853
00:39:30,040 --> 00:39:32,600
Speaker 3: We said that Leipsig was undervalue. Then they remained undervalued.

854
00:39:32,640 --> 00:39:35,560
Speaker 3: They played about even in that game, not including the

855
00:39:35,560 --> 00:39:38,480
Speaker 3: two penalties. The expected goals were pretty much dead. Even

856
00:39:38,719 --> 00:39:41,239
Speaker 3: the one penalty was incredibly controversial. I did not think

857
00:39:41,280 --> 00:39:43,640
Speaker 3: it was a penalty, the one they put PSG ahead. Ultimately,

858
00:39:44,200 --> 00:39:47,640
Speaker 3: Messi is not putting up anywhere near the numbers he

859
00:39:47,760 --> 00:39:49,920
Speaker 3: was putting up in Spain the last few years. It

860
00:39:50,000 --> 00:39:52,040
Speaker 3: could be a small sample size, it probably is, but

861
00:39:52,120 --> 00:39:53,800
Speaker 3: it could be some decline. I mean, he's in his

862
00:39:53,880 --> 00:39:56,359
Speaker 3: mid thirties now and it's not unheard of. There could

863
00:39:56,400 --> 00:39:58,680
Speaker 3: be some decline there. He came off at halftime. PSG

864
00:39:58,760 --> 00:40:01,759
Speaker 3: played a lot better the second half against Leo once

865
00:40:01,800 --> 00:40:04,360
Speaker 3: he was out of there, with mar Occardi kind of

866
00:40:04,400 --> 00:40:06,440
Speaker 3: being more of a poacher against that low block that

867
00:40:06,560 --> 00:40:10,120
Speaker 3: Leo was playing in. But you mentioned it. Leo was

868
00:40:10,160 --> 00:40:12,479
Speaker 3: a much better team for most of that match. Last

869
00:40:12,480 --> 00:40:15,600
Speaker 3: week they really struggled with Marseille. They're struggling right now

870
00:40:15,640 --> 00:40:17,600
Speaker 3: in the Champions League. You can still get in if

871
00:40:17,640 --> 00:40:20,480
Speaker 3: you have not gotten in yet. Manchester City is minus

872
00:40:20,560 --> 00:40:23,319
Speaker 3: one ten to win this group. That might be even

873
00:40:23,400 --> 00:40:25,840
Speaker 3: better played than the one that I recommend on Leipzig

874
00:40:26,200 --> 00:40:28,640
Speaker 3: on Wednesday. City is going to get them at home.

875
00:40:28,680 --> 00:40:30,279
Speaker 3: I think they're gonna thrash them in a couple of weeks,

876
00:40:30,760 --> 00:40:34,680
Speaker 3: and I think PSG is apt to drop points here

877
00:40:34,719 --> 00:40:38,080
Speaker 3: as well. So yeah, I like Leipzig on the money line.

878
00:40:38,320 --> 00:40:41,400
Speaker 3: Anything over two hundred is fine. My projections make this

879
00:40:41,560 --> 00:40:45,279
Speaker 3: game a toss up, so if you like the money line,

880
00:40:45,320 --> 00:40:47,120
Speaker 3: that's fine. I also think plus a half is worth

881
00:40:47,200 --> 00:40:47,800
Speaker 3: worth of play.

882
00:40:48,200 --> 00:40:52,239
Speaker 1: Perfect back on RB Leipsig against PSG. What could go wrong?

883
00:40:52,719 --> 00:40:56,399
Speaker 1: Manchester City? They host Club Bruges in the other group

884
00:40:56,480 --> 00:41:00,960
Speaker 1: A match City prohibitive minus nine hundred favorites Club Bruge

885
00:41:01,480 --> 00:41:04,560
Speaker 1: biggest underdog for the entire round, nineteen to one on

886
00:41:04,640 --> 00:41:06,560
Speaker 1: the money line. The draw is ten to one. There's

887
00:41:06,560 --> 00:41:09,279
Speaker 1: a four pm kickoff on Wednesday Crystal Palace. They were

888
00:41:09,320 --> 00:41:12,880
Speaker 1: twenty to one on the money line on Saturday against

889
00:41:13,440 --> 00:41:17,400
Speaker 1: Manchester City and they won two nil, so you never know. However,

890
00:41:18,360 --> 00:41:21,040
Speaker 1: I don't really think Lightne's gonna strike twice here with

891
00:41:21,160 --> 00:41:25,439
Speaker 1: Club Bruges pulling the upset against City on the road

892
00:41:26,360 --> 00:41:29,279
Speaker 1: the last meeting. I had just for fun bet on

893
00:41:29,560 --> 00:41:32,360
Speaker 1: City to win four nil. Looked for two seconds like

894
00:41:32,480 --> 00:41:35,120
Speaker 1: they were gonna do it, and then they didn't. City

895
00:41:35,160 --> 00:41:38,080
Speaker 1: put up three three point eight expected goals against Bruges

896
00:41:38,120 --> 00:41:40,360
Speaker 1: and that one. So I think if I'm going to

897
00:41:40,440 --> 00:41:42,680
Speaker 1: bet this one, it would just maybe be a crazy

898
00:41:42,880 --> 00:41:45,879
Speaker 1: City team total or some score, maybe like an over

899
00:41:45,960 --> 00:41:48,239
Speaker 1: six and a half for like a really really small bet,

900
00:41:48,880 --> 00:41:51,919
Speaker 1: thinking maybe City scores five or six. But I don't

901
00:41:51,960 --> 00:41:55,160
Speaker 1: see value basically in any of the main markets. What

902
00:41:55,400 --> 00:41:57,759
Speaker 1: about you, BJ, Yeah, that's passed for me.

903
00:41:57,800 --> 00:42:01,040
Speaker 2: I think Manchester City projected a minus six oh one

904
00:42:01,800 --> 00:42:05,560
Speaker 2: in Club Bruges at plus twenty six hundred, So nothing

905
00:42:05,600 --> 00:42:08,040
Speaker 2: here for me. Manchester City it's a little concerning. They've

906
00:42:08,080 --> 00:42:09,759
Speaker 2: lost two in a row. They lost in the League

907
00:42:09,800 --> 00:42:12,200
Speaker 2: Cup to West Ham and the loss against Crystal Palace,

908
00:42:12,239 --> 00:42:14,799
Speaker 2: and they've also got a big match, the Manchester Derby

909
00:42:14,840 --> 00:42:18,000
Speaker 2: coming up this weekend, so they obviously have to you know,

910
00:42:18,040 --> 00:42:19,759
Speaker 2: they have to go for this match and take all

911
00:42:19,800 --> 00:42:21,520
Speaker 2: three points. But if they get ahead early, do they

912
00:42:21,560 --> 00:42:23,440
Speaker 2: start taking off some of their best players and try

913
00:42:23,480 --> 00:42:26,600
Speaker 2: to save them for the derby coming up this weekend,

914
00:42:26,719 --> 00:42:29,000
Speaker 2: so you know it's it's a pass for me. You know,

915
00:42:29,160 --> 00:42:31,279
Speaker 2: Club Bruges did score against them, so they can take

916
00:42:31,320 --> 00:42:34,319
Speaker 2: that feather than their hat home to Belgium. But yeah,

917
00:42:34,400 --> 00:42:35,080
Speaker 2: it's a pass for me.

918
00:42:35,960 --> 00:42:38,560
Speaker 1: The matchup that should be like if I wish they

919
00:42:38,760 --> 00:42:40,560
Speaker 1: they could take one of these matches and put it

920
00:42:40,600 --> 00:42:43,560
Speaker 1: on like Sunday Night football instead of the NFL, and

921
00:42:43,640 --> 00:42:45,600
Speaker 1: it would be this one. It would be Dortmound plus

922
00:42:45,640 --> 00:42:49,120
Speaker 1: one forty five at home against IX plus one sixty

923
00:42:49,160 --> 00:42:51,880
Speaker 1: five the draw plus two eighty five. I AX the

924
00:42:51,920 --> 00:42:55,200
Speaker 1: top group C right now with nine points Dortmunt at six,

925
00:42:55,360 --> 00:42:59,640
Speaker 1: Sporting Lisbon three, Bashika's at zero. The last time, who

926
00:42:59,680 --> 00:43:01,440
Speaker 1: was it two weeks ago when these two teams met

927
00:43:01,560 --> 00:43:05,400
Speaker 1: IX four nil win and it was quick, it was deadly,

928
00:43:05,600 --> 00:43:07,880
Speaker 1: it was fun. We all were really excited about this

929
00:43:08,080 --> 00:43:11,360
Speaker 1: matchup and it kind of one side of the billing

930
00:43:11,440 --> 00:43:13,600
Speaker 1: lived up to the hype, the other side kind of didn't.

931
00:43:14,200 --> 00:43:15,920
Speaker 1: Things kind of got off the rails really quickly with

932
00:43:15,960 --> 00:43:19,040
Speaker 1: the two quick goals, the own goal by Marco Royce

933
00:43:19,080 --> 00:43:21,160
Speaker 1: I think it was in the ninth minute or something.

934
00:43:21,239 --> 00:43:24,000
Speaker 1: Really through this game off kilter, but that's what you

935
00:43:24,040 --> 00:43:26,520
Speaker 1: should expect. When these two teams play, right, something's gonna happen.

936
00:43:26,880 --> 00:43:30,000
Speaker 1: They both can create something crazy, So if it happens early,

937
00:43:30,440 --> 00:43:32,880
Speaker 1: it'll just be back and forth and this match of

938
00:43:32,960 --> 00:43:35,520
Speaker 1: ping pong all over the place. I like IX on

939
00:43:35,560 --> 00:43:37,759
Speaker 1: the money line. I like to over at three and

940
00:43:37,800 --> 00:43:40,399
Speaker 1: a half, sit back, put your feet up, and really

941
00:43:40,480 --> 00:43:42,960
Speaker 1: just enjoy the show. And those two bets screamed that

942
00:43:43,080 --> 00:43:45,560
Speaker 1: to me, So that's where I'm gonna be going for

943
00:43:45,719 --> 00:43:50,040
Speaker 1: this one. BJ. Are you with me on IX here

944
00:43:50,200 --> 00:43:52,400
Speaker 1: or do you think Dortmann can pull one over at home?

945
00:43:53,080 --> 00:43:55,080
Speaker 2: Yeah? I learned my lesson, and I asked like ten

946
00:43:55,160 --> 00:43:57,440
Speaker 2: minutes before the IAX Dortmund game two weeks ago, I

947
00:43:57,520 --> 00:43:59,680
Speaker 2: actual got steamed, so I took Dortmund plus half a

948
00:43:59,719 --> 00:44:02,680
Speaker 2: goal and that lost in like five minutes. So I've

949
00:44:02,760 --> 00:44:05,360
Speaker 2: learned my lesson. This IX team is an absolute wagon.

950
00:44:05,600 --> 00:44:09,040
Speaker 2: They completely dominated Dortmand and they've been completely dominant in

951
00:44:09,040 --> 00:44:12,000
Speaker 2: their three Champions League matches. They've scored eleven goals off

952
00:44:12,040 --> 00:44:14,839
Speaker 2: of eight point sixty six expected goals. That's crazy good.

953
00:44:14,960 --> 00:44:18,920
Speaker 2: And they completely dominated Dortmund thirty four shot creating ashs

954
00:44:18,960 --> 00:44:21,640
Speaker 2: Dortman sixteen twenty four box entries compared to only ten

955
00:44:21,680 --> 00:44:24,000
Speaker 2: for Dortmant and forty two touches inside the penalty area

956
00:44:24,280 --> 00:44:26,640
Speaker 2: compared to only seventeen for Dormant, So it was a thrashing.

957
00:44:26,680 --> 00:44:29,399
Speaker 2: And we've also talked about Dorman's defensive struggles and they're

958
00:44:29,480 --> 00:44:32,279
Speaker 2: very real when they have to play competent offenses. They're

959
00:44:32,280 --> 00:44:34,439
Speaker 2: allowing one point three to two expected goals per match

960
00:44:34,480 --> 00:44:37,919
Speaker 2: and have allowed fifteen big scoring chances in the Bundesliga

961
00:44:38,000 --> 00:44:41,120
Speaker 2: this season. Earling Holland is out for this match, so

962
00:44:41,560 --> 00:44:45,440
Speaker 2: that's troublesome for Dortmant, which he's pretty much everything for

963
00:44:45,560 --> 00:44:48,640
Speaker 2: them offensively. So instead of taking over three and a

964
00:44:48,640 --> 00:44:51,799
Speaker 2: half goals again, I'm going to back Iax's offense. Take

965
00:44:51,840 --> 00:44:53,759
Speaker 2: their team total over one and a half goals at

966
00:44:53,800 --> 00:44:56,359
Speaker 2: minus one twenty. This team is averaging two point five

967
00:44:56,840 --> 00:45:00,720
Speaker 2: expected goals in all competitions this season. They're an absolute

968
00:45:00,760 --> 00:45:02,160
Speaker 2: wagon and I think they should be able to break

969
00:45:02,160 --> 00:45:04,080
Speaker 2: down Norton's defense just like they did last time.

970
00:45:04,200 --> 00:45:06,160
Speaker 1: They're the type of team I wish that you could

971
00:45:06,160 --> 00:45:09,040
Speaker 1: throw roses on the field like a like after a

972
00:45:09,080 --> 00:45:11,320
Speaker 1: great orchestra or something. With IX scores a goal. I

973
00:45:11,320 --> 00:45:13,560
Speaker 1: would love to see people in the crowd throwing roses

974
00:45:13,600 --> 00:45:16,320
Speaker 1: on the field, because yeah, they are very romantic and

975
00:45:16,400 --> 00:45:19,480
Speaker 1: fun to watch. Dortmann has four clean sheets in total

976
00:45:19,600 --> 00:45:23,439
Speaker 1: this season. They came against Ingolstott, something called we hand

977
00:45:23,960 --> 00:45:27,320
Speaker 1: Colne and Sporting Lisbon. So when they do play good offenses,

978
00:45:27,320 --> 00:45:29,680
Speaker 1: like BJ said, they do usually get picked apart. This

979
00:45:29,760 --> 00:45:32,359
Speaker 1: is a terrible matchup for them. I think, Anthony, are

980
00:45:32,400 --> 00:45:35,160
Speaker 1: you joining me and BJ becking this IX side?

981
00:45:35,680 --> 00:45:38,560
Speaker 3: Yes, no idea. How they're underdogs makes no sense about

982
00:45:38,600 --> 00:45:42,560
Speaker 3: Holland at all. You know, the possession structures, the passing ability,

983
00:45:42,600 --> 00:45:46,120
Speaker 3: the technical quality of this i AX midfield is leaps

984
00:45:46,200 --> 00:45:49,040
Speaker 3: and bounds, leaps and bounds ahead of what Dortman is

985
00:45:49,080 --> 00:45:51,680
Speaker 3: throwing out there. Anthony on the wing, one of the

986
00:45:51,760 --> 00:45:55,880
Speaker 3: more underrated players and all of Europe lit up Dortman

987
00:45:56,040 --> 00:45:59,400
Speaker 3: on the one wing where Dorman has had some issues

988
00:45:59,440 --> 00:46:02,040
Speaker 3: with full back for years. They've had issues defending attacks

989
00:46:02,120 --> 00:46:04,120
Speaker 3: up the wings for years. It will continue to be

990
00:46:04,120 --> 00:46:06,680
Speaker 3: an issue in this matchup. And Sebastian al Air is

991
00:46:06,680 --> 00:46:09,640
Speaker 3: in great form and I know it's pretty square, and

992
00:46:09,719 --> 00:46:11,400
Speaker 3: I think the public is starting to catch up to

993
00:46:11,520 --> 00:46:13,680
Speaker 3: i X, maybe not as far as the five point

994
00:46:13,680 --> 00:46:15,560
Speaker 3: thirty eight model says, where they're now fifth best in

995
00:46:15,600 --> 00:46:17,920
Speaker 3: the world, but eventually we're all going to get there.

996
00:46:17,960 --> 00:46:19,719
Speaker 3: We're all going to be on the train together, and

997
00:46:19,840 --> 00:46:22,120
Speaker 3: you better hop in soon because the train is getting

998
00:46:22,120 --> 00:46:25,239
Speaker 3: ready to leave the station from Amsterdam and we're heading

999
00:46:25,239 --> 00:46:27,520
Speaker 3: all the way to Saint Petersburg, which is where the

1000
00:46:27,680 --> 00:46:31,200
Speaker 3: Champions League finals this year. So book at i AX

1001
00:46:31,320 --> 00:46:33,640
Speaker 3: Drono Bett. I don't see how they lose this game,

1002
00:46:33,760 --> 00:46:36,640
Speaker 3: especially without Holland who created almost every chance Doortmann had

1003
00:46:36,920 --> 00:46:37,840
Speaker 3: in the last matchup.

1004
00:46:38,200 --> 00:46:40,640
Speaker 2: I can't wait till i AX and PSG get paired

1005
00:46:40,760 --> 00:46:42,440
Speaker 2: in the round of sixteen. It's going to be one

1006
00:46:42,440 --> 00:46:44,760
Speaker 2: of the most painful slash fun matches for our lifetime.

1007
00:46:45,280 --> 00:46:46,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, there's no way i.

1008
00:46:46,480 --> 00:46:49,480
Speaker 1: Actual win like three point twenty six to one point

1009
00:46:49,560 --> 00:46:53,840
Speaker 1: eight aggregate expectacles, but lose the legs exactly.

1010
00:46:54,080 --> 00:46:54,239
Speaker 2: Yeah.

1011
00:46:54,360 --> 00:46:56,279
Speaker 1: And I think if you're going to bet i AX,

1012
00:46:56,320 --> 00:46:59,440
Speaker 1: you might want to do it as soon as possible,

1013
00:46:59,440 --> 00:47:01,560
Speaker 1: because I do think that the market will come in

1014
00:47:01,680 --> 00:47:05,120
Speaker 1: on them because of the Holland news, and I would

1015
00:47:05,120 --> 00:47:06,600
Speaker 1: I would just be surprised.

1016
00:47:06,400 --> 00:47:09,520
Speaker 3: If Ortman got Steam. I got steamed last time, right,

1017
00:47:09,719 --> 00:47:13,680
Speaker 3: and so I think, you know, I hope it happens again.

1018
00:47:13,960 --> 00:47:16,600
Speaker 3: Get some closing line value on that one. But it

1019
00:47:16,719 --> 00:47:20,480
Speaker 3: was it was remarkable to Uh. I'm sorry, I did

1020
00:47:20,600 --> 00:47:21,640
Speaker 3: chuckle when I saw you put.

1021
00:47:21,560 --> 00:47:21,840
Speaker 1: That bet in.

1022
00:47:21,920 --> 00:47:22,279
Speaker 3: I will be on.

1023
00:47:22,440 --> 00:47:24,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, it was bad. Bet it happens, I chuckled.

1024
00:47:24,880 --> 00:47:26,840
Speaker 3: Okay, I looked at my phone, I saw on the

1025
00:47:26,880 --> 00:47:29,360
Speaker 3: app BJ I'm mad at the bell, and I went.

1026
00:47:29,560 --> 00:47:32,279
Speaker 2: I'm a math guy, so you know, the math told

1027
00:47:32,320 --> 00:47:34,759
Speaker 2: me to bet Dortmund and the steam was coming in,

1028
00:47:34,920 --> 00:47:37,080
Speaker 2: and so I said, okay, I'll trust my math and

1029
00:47:37,400 --> 00:47:39,160
Speaker 2: didn't like five minutes. Not the first time. I'm want

1030
00:47:39,160 --> 00:47:40,560
Speaker 2: to do that, and it probably won't be the last one.

1031
00:47:41,400 --> 00:47:44,600
Speaker 1: That is true. That is that is true, and it'll

1032
00:47:44,800 --> 00:47:47,120
Speaker 1: I mean, it will happen this week. That's betting when

1033
00:47:47,160 --> 00:47:49,080
Speaker 1: you're when you're betting this many games. We have sixteen

1034
00:47:49,160 --> 00:47:52,040
Speaker 1: matches on Tuesday and Wednesday. Uh, speaking of which you

1035
00:47:52,120 --> 00:47:54,719
Speaker 1: know there are sixteen matches and you should if you

1036
00:47:54,880 --> 00:47:57,080
Speaker 1: do like watching Champions League. We can't say it enough.

1037
00:47:57,160 --> 00:48:00,520
Speaker 1: Like the Golasso Show on Paramount Sports, UH is just

1038
00:48:00,600 --> 00:48:04,600
Speaker 1: so much fun, especially when it's basically been the groups

1039
00:48:04,640 --> 00:48:07,040
Speaker 1: that are playing on Wednesday. This time around has just

1040
00:48:07,080 --> 00:48:09,480
Speaker 1: been absolute chaos, Like there's just been goals everywhere with

1041
00:48:10,200 --> 00:48:13,160
Speaker 1: IAX and Liverpool and at Letti and all sorts of stuff.

1042
00:48:13,160 --> 00:48:16,200
Speaker 1: It's it's basically been a carnival, so make sure to

1043
00:48:16,440 --> 00:48:19,400
Speaker 1: look into that. The Golasso show lots of fun. The

1044
00:48:19,480 --> 00:48:22,560
Speaker 1: other match in Group C Sporting minus two of five

1045
00:48:22,600 --> 00:48:27,040
Speaker 1: favorites against Bashika's who have to travel from Turkey to Portugal.

1046
00:48:27,080 --> 00:48:29,200
Speaker 1: There plus five fifty on the money line, so is

1047
00:48:29,200 --> 00:48:33,000
Speaker 1: the draw. The kickoff is four pm on Wednesday. Don't

1048
00:48:33,000 --> 00:48:35,000
Speaker 1: have anything on this match, but I do want to

1049
00:48:35,040 --> 00:48:38,120
Speaker 1: talk about Sporting their prospects of advancing from this group.

1050
00:48:38,160 --> 00:48:41,200
Speaker 1: They're sitting at three points, Dortmund's at six, IAX at nine,

1051
00:48:41,360 --> 00:48:45,080
Speaker 1: Bashika's at mil. If Sporting wins and Dortmuann loses to

1052
00:48:45,160 --> 00:48:46,880
Speaker 1: i X, which we're all picking them to do, so

1053
00:48:47,520 --> 00:48:50,120
Speaker 1: these two teams will then play basically for win or

1054
00:48:50,160 --> 00:48:53,320
Speaker 1: two advance, assuming that Dortmund I mean, yeah, they'd have

1055
00:48:53,400 --> 00:48:55,640
Speaker 1: to lose to Bashika's whatever it is. But like there's

1056
00:48:55,719 --> 00:48:57,600
Speaker 1: something to be fit to thought of if if you

1057
00:48:57,680 --> 00:48:59,719
Speaker 1: want to take a shot at Sporting at plus five

1058
00:48:59,760 --> 00:49:02,600
Speaker 1: hundred to advance. They're playing Dortmant at home on November

1059
00:49:02,640 --> 00:49:05,040
Speaker 1: twenty fourth. I think that's the only thing I would

1060
00:49:05,080 --> 00:49:06,680
Speaker 1: look at. I'm not going to bet it, but just

1061
00:49:06,800 --> 00:49:09,399
Speaker 1: if you are really really looking for action on this match,

1062
00:49:09,600 --> 00:49:12,160
Speaker 1: that's that's the only angle I really have here. Otherwise,

1063
00:49:12,200 --> 00:49:14,879
Speaker 1: I think it looks lined pretty tight Brashika. This will

1064
00:49:14,920 --> 00:49:16,480
Speaker 1: definitely be going for it because if they want to

1065
00:49:16,520 --> 00:49:18,400
Speaker 1: have a chance of playing Europa League, they have to

1066
00:49:18,440 --> 00:49:21,040
Speaker 1: win this match and catch Sporting, so that could be

1067
00:49:21,200 --> 00:49:23,279
Speaker 1: make it interesting. Anthony, I know last time these two

1068
00:49:23,320 --> 00:49:26,000
Speaker 1: teams played, you thought that this could be an underrated match.

1069
00:49:26,360 --> 00:49:30,080
Speaker 1: It's going up against Dortmann and IAX and Liverpool at Letty,

1070
00:49:30,200 --> 00:49:31,759
Speaker 1: so I don't know how many people be tuning in,

1071
00:49:31,880 --> 00:49:33,960
Speaker 1: but for those that are, offer some thoughts.

1072
00:49:34,440 --> 00:49:37,719
Speaker 3: Yeah, there was some lineup issues with Bashikas in the

1073
00:49:37,840 --> 00:49:40,359
Speaker 3: last meeting that they had and it was not an

1074
00:49:40,480 --> 00:49:43,799
Speaker 3: entertaining match at all. I actually ended up pretty much

1075
00:49:43,800 --> 00:49:46,440
Speaker 3: watching Bruges in City the entire time, which I thought

1076
00:49:46,480 --> 00:49:50,040
Speaker 3: was much more entertaining watching City thrash them. Not a

1077
00:49:50,120 --> 00:49:53,720
Speaker 3: ton here from me either, pretty much stay away, Maybe

1078
00:49:53,920 --> 00:49:55,640
Speaker 3: a look to Boshikas if you want to play a

1079
00:49:55,680 --> 00:49:58,359
Speaker 3: team total over because I agree with when Michael, They're

1080
00:49:58,360 --> 00:49:59,560
Speaker 3: going to have to open it up a little bit

1081
00:50:00,280 --> 00:50:03,600
Speaker 3: sporting still a little bit undervalued into or overvalued excuse me,

1082
00:50:03,719 --> 00:50:06,880
Speaker 3: defensively in the sense that they are due to concede

1083
00:50:06,960 --> 00:50:11,000
Speaker 3: some goals, getting way back to last season, but overall

1084
00:50:11,480 --> 00:50:14,719
Speaker 3: not looking to really get involved here. And it's a pass,

1085
00:50:15,400 --> 00:50:15,719
Speaker 3: all right.

1086
00:50:15,760 --> 00:50:18,600
Speaker 1: So let's move on the last group. We'll talk about

1087
00:50:18,960 --> 00:50:22,359
Speaker 1: Group D. Sheriff Turist Bowl out of Moldova there at

1088
00:50:22,400 --> 00:50:24,160
Speaker 1: the top of Group D. Is still kind of crazy

1089
00:50:24,200 --> 00:50:27,080
Speaker 1: to say that there at six points, they're tied with Madrid,

1090
00:50:27,120 --> 00:50:30,239
Speaker 1: who are also at six inter Milan for Shocktar done

1091
00:50:30,320 --> 00:50:34,759
Speaker 1: next at one. Shocktar will travel to the Bernabau for

1092
00:50:34,880 --> 00:50:37,080
Speaker 1: this one to take on Real Madrid, who are minus

1093
00:50:37,120 --> 00:50:39,680
Speaker 1: four twenty five favorites Shocktar eleven to one on the

1094
00:50:39,719 --> 00:50:41,799
Speaker 1: money line to draw six to one. This is one

1095
00:50:41,880 --> 00:50:46,280
Speaker 1: forty five pm kickoff. Real Madrid has been getting results

1096
00:50:46,360 --> 00:50:50,960
Speaker 1: despite I wouldn't say bad underlying metrics, but non elite

1097
00:50:51,080 --> 00:50:55,600
Speaker 1: underlying metrics. They have minus point six expected gold differential

1098
00:50:55,640 --> 00:50:57,719
Speaker 1: in their last three La Liga matches and they came

1099
00:50:57,760 --> 00:51:01,279
Speaker 1: against Barcelona, Osasuna and Lha. Yes Barcelona's good, but not

1100
00:51:01,760 --> 00:51:04,680
Speaker 1: the Barcelona of old. Also sooner at LJA. I mean,

1101
00:51:05,200 --> 00:51:07,920
Speaker 1: you'd expect Madrid to be able to thrash them like

1102
00:51:08,040 --> 00:51:09,680
Speaker 1: they did to Shocktar the last time out when they

1103
00:51:09,719 --> 00:51:13,320
Speaker 1: won five mil. I was on Shocktar. Then I'm probably

1104
00:51:13,400 --> 00:51:16,879
Speaker 1: gonna do it again eleven to one on the money line.

1105
00:51:16,920 --> 00:51:20,239
Speaker 1: I don't want to do it, but I'm not, you know,

1106
00:51:20,320 --> 00:51:22,480
Speaker 1: that strong a person. I don't really have much self

1107
00:51:22,560 --> 00:51:25,600
Speaker 1: control in that regard, So I'll take a shot at

1108
00:51:25,600 --> 00:51:27,880
Speaker 1: eleven to one. Really small bet. Obviously, don't expect it

1109
00:51:27,960 --> 00:51:29,640
Speaker 1: to win BJ What about you?

1110
00:51:30,800 --> 00:51:32,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, and you know we just talked about how stupid

1111
00:51:32,800 --> 00:51:34,719
Speaker 2: I loved betting Dorman plus half a goal. Well, I'm

1112
00:51:34,719 --> 00:51:38,160
Speaker 2: probably gonna look stupid betting Shocktar plus two. I mean,

1113
00:51:38,400 --> 00:51:40,960
Speaker 2: taking away from that match against Real Madrid two weeks ago,

1114
00:51:42,000 --> 00:51:45,280
Speaker 2: There's not a lot of positives I can provide for Shocktar,

1115
00:51:45,800 --> 00:51:47,600
Speaker 2: but what I can say is that I do think

1116
00:51:47,640 --> 00:51:50,560
Speaker 2: this Real Madrid team is going to regress pretty soon.

1117
00:51:51,120 --> 00:51:53,400
Speaker 2: Offensively this season, They've scored twenty six goals off of

1118
00:51:53,480 --> 00:51:55,640
Speaker 2: seventeen point one expected goals, and then they do the

1119
00:51:55,719 --> 00:51:59,400
Speaker 2: fact that Kareem Benzema and Venetius Junior are just finishing

1120
00:51:59,440 --> 00:52:03,120
Speaker 2: at crazy eight right now. Shocktar is much better defensively

1121
00:52:03,200 --> 00:52:05,960
Speaker 2: than they showed in that match too. They're domestically. They're

1122
00:52:05,960 --> 00:52:09,000
Speaker 2: only allowing point seven to two expected goals per match

1123
00:52:09,239 --> 00:52:12,279
Speaker 2: in the Ukrainian Premier League, and they only allowed Enter

1124
00:52:12,400 --> 00:52:14,600
Speaker 2: to create one point zero three expected goals in their

1125
00:52:14,640 --> 00:52:17,400
Speaker 2: second Champions League match, and enters the best offense in

1126
00:52:17,440 --> 00:52:20,600
Speaker 2: Italy right now. Real Madrid defensively hasn't been that elite either.

1127
00:52:20,680 --> 00:52:23,560
Speaker 2: They're allowing one point to eight expected goals for match,

1128
00:52:23,560 --> 00:52:26,120
Speaker 2: which is fifteenth in LaLiga. They're also ninth in shots

1129
00:52:26,160 --> 00:52:29,800
Speaker 2: allowed per ninety tenth and big scoring chances allowed. So

1130
00:52:29,920 --> 00:52:32,480
Speaker 2: I'm not sure that we're just gonna see Real Madrid

1131
00:52:32,640 --> 00:52:35,560
Speaker 2: roll like five six nothing. Again, I only have Real

1132
00:52:35,600 --> 00:52:38,399
Speaker 2: Madrid projection that minus one ninety seven, you know, five

1133
00:52:38,520 --> 00:52:40,600
Speaker 2: thirty eight has them met seventy percent, which equates to

1134
00:52:40,680 --> 00:52:43,560
Speaker 2: a round minus two thirty five. So they're a little

1135
00:52:43,600 --> 00:52:45,960
Speaker 2: overvalued being around, you know. I think they're aut minus

1136
00:52:45,960 --> 00:52:48,520
Speaker 2: four four to twenty five right now. So I'll step

1137
00:52:48,560 --> 00:52:50,680
Speaker 2: out in the train tracks and take Shock Tar plus

1138
00:52:50,760 --> 00:52:52,040
Speaker 2: two at minus one thirty five.

1139
00:52:52,640 --> 00:52:55,040
Speaker 1: I think that's the thing right, It's it's not really

1140
00:52:55,280 --> 00:52:57,759
Speaker 1: a bet you want to make, but Real Madrid over

1141
00:52:57,840 --> 00:53:00,560
Speaker 1: the long term, they are overvalued. I think. I think

1142
00:53:00,600 --> 00:53:03,120
Speaker 1: that's the key term here, right, Anthony, absolutely right.

1143
00:53:03,160 --> 00:53:05,080
Speaker 3: We bet numbers more than we bet teams, and so

1144
00:53:05,400 --> 00:53:08,160
Speaker 3: I absolutely want to fade in Real Madrid. I'm leaning

1145
00:53:08,200 --> 00:53:09,920
Speaker 3: towards Shaktar. I'm gonna wait to try to get a

1146
00:53:09,960 --> 00:53:12,719
Speaker 3: better number on the plus two. I'll probably end up

1147
00:53:12,760 --> 00:53:15,960
Speaker 3: being there, but right now, as of recording, we're a

1148
00:53:16,040 --> 00:53:17,920
Speaker 3: few days away from the match. I'm going to be

1149
00:53:18,000 --> 00:53:21,480
Speaker 3: passing just this Shacktar team has not looked anything close

1150
00:53:21,520 --> 00:53:24,440
Speaker 3: to what I was expecting. Probably the biggest disappointment for

1151
00:53:24,520 --> 00:53:26,440
Speaker 3: me of all the Champions League group stage teams has

1152
00:53:26,480 --> 00:53:28,600
Speaker 3: been Shacktar. They go on the road to Sheriff and

1153
00:53:28,640 --> 00:53:31,280
Speaker 3: look terrible. They come home and they get a solid

1154
00:53:31,320 --> 00:53:33,920
Speaker 3: result against Interim what I thought was an encouraging performance,

1155
00:53:34,239 --> 00:53:36,439
Speaker 3: and then they go and they get Real at home

1156
00:53:36,600 --> 00:53:39,600
Speaker 3: in a great spot with Real traveling a ton of

1157
00:53:39,680 --> 00:53:42,600
Speaker 3: miles coming off the international break having not played, and

1158
00:53:42,680 --> 00:53:46,479
Speaker 3: they look awful. And so you know, Shacktar just doesn't

1159
00:53:46,480 --> 00:53:48,680
Speaker 3: look like they have it this year. Maybe they do,

1160
00:53:48,880 --> 00:53:50,640
Speaker 3: but again, if the number gets to a certain point

1161
00:53:50,960 --> 00:53:54,160
Speaker 3: plus two it say minus one, fifteen one, twenty one five,

1162
00:53:54,680 --> 00:53:57,160
Speaker 3: I'm going to get down on some shack tar and

1163
00:53:57,320 --> 00:53:59,120
Speaker 3: we can all Maybe we'll get together and we'll light

1164
00:53:59,160 --> 00:54:02,080
Speaker 3: our tickets on fire sometimes celebrate the holidays.

1165
00:54:02,520 --> 00:54:03,040
Speaker 2: Sounds fun.

1166
00:54:03,280 --> 00:54:05,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, that'd be a fun one. We'll travel to Iowa,

1167
00:54:05,600 --> 00:54:08,000
Speaker 1: where BJ is from, and people ask what we're doing

1168
00:54:08,040 --> 00:54:11,360
Speaker 1: and we'll say, well, we're honoring a terrible, terrible soccer

1169
00:54:11,440 --> 00:54:14,600
Speaker 1: team from in a disputed territory in Ukraine, in the

1170
00:54:14,640 --> 00:54:18,919
Speaker 1: western part of Ukraine. Speaking of disputed territories, Sheriff tears full.

1171
00:54:19,000 --> 00:54:22,799
Speaker 1: They're nine to one home underdogs against inter Milian minus

1172
00:54:22,840 --> 00:54:26,480
Speaker 1: three forty the draw five to one. This is actually

1173
00:54:26,680 --> 00:54:29,880
Speaker 1: really interesting match in terms of the group. Sheriff is

1174
00:54:29,920 --> 00:54:32,040
Speaker 1: at six points. If they get a point out of

1175
00:54:32,120 --> 00:54:34,919
Speaker 1: this match, like they're going through in all likelihood because

1176
00:54:34,920 --> 00:54:37,200
Speaker 1: they'll be on seven, inter would have to basically pull

1177
00:54:37,239 --> 00:54:41,279
Speaker 1: one over on Madrid. So I'm expecting that they'll sit back.

1178
00:54:41,440 --> 00:54:44,000
Speaker 1: I don't think that's a terribly good idea. I think

1179
00:54:44,160 --> 00:54:47,920
Speaker 1: just at some point, like the Sheriff Magic, we'll run out.

1180
00:54:47,920 --> 00:54:49,880
Speaker 1: It seemed like it ran out three to one win

1181
00:54:50,000 --> 00:54:52,000
Speaker 1: for Inter in the last time these two teams played.

1182
00:54:52,480 --> 00:54:54,319
Speaker 1: I'm going back to that. I think Inter minus two

1183
00:54:54,360 --> 00:54:56,960
Speaker 1: plus one fifty five is good value. I just think

1184
00:54:57,760 --> 00:54:59,919
Speaker 1: this is going to be an Inter blowout for some reason.

1185
00:55:00,040 --> 00:55:03,160
Speaker 1: And then I can't believe I'm doing it Benning against Sheriff,

1186
00:55:03,280 --> 00:55:07,520
Speaker 1: but I just gotta It's just back an Inner blowout here, Anthony,

1187
00:55:07,640 --> 00:55:08,080
Speaker 1: what about you?

1188
00:55:08,400 --> 00:55:10,279
Speaker 3: A lot of slow start for Intern, It's kind of

1189
00:55:10,320 --> 00:55:14,200
Speaker 3: been the trend lately. A pretty sleepy first half against

1190
00:55:14,239 --> 00:55:17,760
Speaker 3: UNESSI in the in Syria. They had a pretty sleepy

1191
00:55:17,760 --> 00:55:20,839
Speaker 3: first half during the midweek against Emply before things really

1192
00:55:20,840 --> 00:55:23,000
Speaker 3: spicing up in the second half. This get a road

1193
00:55:23,080 --> 00:55:28,320
Speaker 3: trip to Sheriff, where Sheriff has looked pretty solid. You know,

1194
00:55:28,360 --> 00:55:32,640
Speaker 3: they only played one match at home and they played

1195
00:55:32,640 --> 00:55:34,360
Speaker 3: it against Shaktar, and so you know, how much can

1196
00:55:34,400 --> 00:55:36,400
Speaker 3: you really draw into that? But you know, we don't know.

1197
00:55:36,680 --> 00:55:40,440
Speaker 3: You know the situation for Inter traveling here too, you know,

1198
00:55:40,480 --> 00:55:42,719
Speaker 3: a disputed territory, so it could be another sleepy start.

1199
00:55:43,000 --> 00:55:45,719
Speaker 3: I agree that while Sheriff is absolutely due for some

1200
00:55:46,120 --> 00:55:50,600
Speaker 3: defensive regression, both teams are due for some attacking regression here.

1201
00:55:51,320 --> 00:55:54,080
Speaker 3: Inter has been one of the biggest extra over performers

1202
00:55:54,160 --> 00:55:57,720
Speaker 3: in Serie A. Their games have been pretty chaotic, especially

1203
00:55:57,760 --> 00:55:59,879
Speaker 3: in the second half, but the first halves of ten

1204
00:56:00,239 --> 00:56:04,000
Speaker 3: be a little sleepier. They've been slow starters and so

1205
00:56:04,760 --> 00:56:07,360
Speaker 3: you know, and Sheriff has now scored. They scored yet again.

1206
00:56:08,000 --> 00:56:11,720
Speaker 3: They've scored somehow in every Champions League game despite creating

1207
00:56:11,800 --> 00:56:14,319
Speaker 3: less than one expected goal in every Champions League game.

1208
00:56:14,400 --> 00:56:16,799
Speaker 3: So it was a wonderful free kick. But I think

1209
00:56:16,880 --> 00:56:18,319
Speaker 3: this is going to be a slow start before Inter

1210
00:56:18,480 --> 00:56:20,719
Speaker 3: roles in the second half as Sheriff players start could

1211
00:56:20,719 --> 00:56:23,359
Speaker 3: wear down against the pressure. So first half under one

1212
00:56:23,360 --> 00:56:25,520
Speaker 3: point twenty five is minus one twenty That's where I'm

1213
00:56:25,520 --> 00:56:28,360
Speaker 3: looking in this game. Otherwise I don't really show anything

1214
00:56:28,400 --> 00:56:30,200
Speaker 3: on the full game. I don't want to back Sheriff

1215
00:56:30,680 --> 00:56:32,800
Speaker 3: and I don't want to I don't trust Inter and

1216
00:56:32,840 --> 00:56:36,239
Speaker 3: I'm tired of losing betting against Sheriff. So first half hunder.

1217
00:56:36,480 --> 00:56:39,279
Speaker 1: When we recorded our Champions League preview, did you think

1218
00:56:39,320 --> 00:56:41,800
Speaker 1: you'd ever be muttering that line? I don't think so.

1219
00:56:42,400 --> 00:56:46,319
Speaker 1: All right, that'll do for the sixteen match breakdowns. We're

1220
00:56:46,360 --> 00:56:48,640
Speaker 1: going to wrap this show up with our favorite bets

1221
00:56:48,800 --> 00:56:51,520
Speaker 1: of match Week four of the Champions League DJ, let's

1222
00:56:51,560 --> 00:56:54,560
Speaker 1: start with you, what is your favorite bet of them all?

1223
00:56:54,800 --> 00:56:56,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's Urby Live, say plus half a goal against PSG.

1224
00:56:57,120 --> 00:56:59,879
Speaker 2: This PSG team is not good. Yes, they have three

1225
00:57:00,280 --> 00:57:03,840
Speaker 2: fantastic attacking players up top, but this midfield and defense

1226
00:57:04,000 --> 00:57:07,040
Speaker 2: is very, very average. There have seven points in the

1227
00:57:07,120 --> 00:57:09,640
Speaker 2: Champions League and they have a negative point four expected

1228
00:57:09,719 --> 00:57:12,480
Speaker 2: goal toffrontally. In the match against Arby Leipzig two weeks ago,

1229
00:57:12,680 --> 00:57:15,520
Speaker 2: yes they won unexpected goals, but two point seventy five

1230
00:57:15,560 --> 00:57:17,840
Speaker 2: of them came off of two penalties and it's happened

1231
00:57:17,840 --> 00:57:20,320
Speaker 2: by Messi. I was going in anyway. This RB Leipsig

1232
00:57:20,400 --> 00:57:23,280
Speaker 2: offense is still there. They're averaging two point two expected

1233
00:57:23,280 --> 00:57:26,840
Speaker 2: goals for match in the Bundesliga. Obviously defensively in transition.

1234
00:57:26,920 --> 00:57:30,120
Speaker 2: They're having a lot of issues right now. But PSG

1235
00:57:30,240 --> 00:57:32,600
Speaker 2: also has some injuries coming with some Mark over Rapti

1236
00:57:32,640 --> 00:57:35,000
Speaker 2: and Sergio Ramos are both out, and Boppe and Messi

1237
00:57:35,040 --> 00:57:38,640
Speaker 2: are both questionable. So this is my favorite bet potentially

1238
00:57:38,760 --> 00:57:41,360
Speaker 2: of the entire Champions League group stage. I have Rby

1239
00:57:41,360 --> 00:57:43,760
Speaker 2: Pleipsig projected at plus one fourteen. If you look at

1240
00:57:43,800 --> 00:57:46,080
Speaker 2: our five thirty eight, they have Rby Leipzig as a

1241
00:57:46,160 --> 00:57:49,720
Speaker 2: forty four percent favorite. So I love rby Pleipsig plus

1242
00:57:49,760 --> 00:57:51,120
Speaker 2: half a goal at minus one twenty five.

1243
00:57:51,560 --> 00:57:54,280
Speaker 1: Anthony, what's your favorite bet for match Week four of

1244
00:57:54,320 --> 00:57:55,120
Speaker 1: the Champions League?

1245
00:57:55,320 --> 00:57:58,080
Speaker 3: Iron and Benfica both teams to score, yes, minus one

1246
00:57:58,240 --> 00:58:01,000
Speaker 3: twenty Benfica really should have gotten on the board in

1247
00:58:01,040 --> 00:58:04,200
Speaker 3: the last meeting that they played in Benfica on the road.

1248
00:58:04,240 --> 00:58:06,840
Speaker 3: There Byron struggled a little bit defensively. Manual Lawyer had

1249
00:58:06,880 --> 00:58:10,040
Speaker 3: to make multiple big time saves to bail out Byron,

1250
00:58:10,040 --> 00:58:13,560
Speaker 3: who looked pretty vulnerable defensively. In transition. Byron then looked

1251
00:58:13,640 --> 00:58:16,480
Speaker 3: vulnerable defensively against Gladbach when they lost five mil in

1252
00:58:16,520 --> 00:58:19,200
Speaker 3: the cup match. They have two goals to Unjon. They're

1253
00:58:19,200 --> 00:58:20,960
Speaker 3: starting to look a little bit more like the defense

1254
00:58:21,000 --> 00:58:23,280
Speaker 3: that I was expecting them to be coming into the season,

1255
00:58:23,960 --> 00:58:26,600
Speaker 3: where they're leaking goals. I don't really know how they

1256
00:58:26,600 --> 00:58:28,480
Speaker 3: would have solved any of their issues from last season

1257
00:58:28,800 --> 00:58:33,080
Speaker 3: quite with pretty similar personnel. Opumcano looked a little out

1258
00:58:33,120 --> 00:58:35,600
Speaker 3: of sorts in the last two matches, and so I

1259
00:58:35,640 --> 00:58:39,640
Speaker 3: think Benfica, with their improved counter attacking ability, their ability

1260
00:58:39,640 --> 00:58:42,760
Speaker 3: to hit Byron in transition here will create multiple chances

1261
00:58:42,800 --> 00:58:44,640
Speaker 3: will get on the board, and I'm tired of betting

1262
00:58:44,640 --> 00:58:47,120
Speaker 3: against Byron's offense, so let's get and bet on them

1263
00:58:47,160 --> 00:58:49,640
Speaker 3: to get a goal. And they've scored in eighty five

1264
00:58:49,720 --> 00:58:53,880
Speaker 3: of their last eighty six league matches, and so I

1265
00:58:53,960 --> 00:58:55,520
Speaker 3: think there's a good chance they'll get on the board

1266
00:58:55,560 --> 00:58:57,960
Speaker 3: and get one too. So Byron and Benfica both teams

1267
00:58:58,040 --> 00:58:59,040
Speaker 3: scored as minus one to one.

1268
00:59:00,120 --> 00:59:01,800
Speaker 1: Bet I was going back and forth between two teams,

1269
00:59:01,840 --> 00:59:06,120
Speaker 1: Atletico Madrid and Zen at Saint Petersburg. I feel safer

1270
00:59:06,280 --> 00:59:08,640
Speaker 1: going with Zen it taking on Juventus, Like I just

1271
00:59:08,720 --> 00:59:11,000
Speaker 1: don't think this Juventus team is that good. So plus

1272
00:59:11,080 --> 00:59:13,200
Speaker 1: five fifty on a team that, like bj was talking

1273
00:59:13,200 --> 00:59:15,720
Speaker 1: about earlier, this is a pretty good team coming out

1274
00:59:15,720 --> 00:59:18,480
Speaker 1: of a league that, yeah they're not on par Siria,

1275
00:59:18,760 --> 00:59:21,240
Speaker 1: but it's not terrible Russian Premier League. These teams do

1276
00:59:22,000 --> 00:59:26,400
Speaker 1: surprise sometimes and make mini runs in this competition. Plus

1277
00:59:26,480 --> 00:59:29,000
Speaker 1: five fifty to go against this Juventus team, which is

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00:59:29,160 --> 00:59:32,480
Speaker 1: not very good, I'll take that every time. So that's

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00:59:32,560 --> 00:59:35,280
Speaker 1: my favorite bet, taking Zen at Saint Petersburg plus five

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Speaker 1: to fifty on the money line on Tuesday against Juventus

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00:59:39,120 --> 00:59:41,760
Speaker 1: in Group age and that'll do it. It's been another

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Speaker 1: wonderful episode of Wonder Goal for BJ Cunningham and Anthony Dubundo.

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Speaker 1: I'm Michael Leebuff. Please remember to leave us a review

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00:59:49,840 --> 00:59:51,520
Speaker 1: on the Wonder Gool podcast feed. If you do that

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00:59:51,720 --> 00:59:54,280
Speaker 1: and leave your Twitter handle in the review, you'll automatically

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00:59:54,360 --> 00:59:57,040
Speaker 1: be entered in a contest to win the soccer jersey

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00:59:57,080 --> 00:59:59,200
Speaker 1: of your choice. That contest will be wrapping up pretty soon,

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00:59:59,240 --> 01:00:02,320
Speaker 1: so make sure to get in on that while you can't,

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Speaker 1: and have a wonderful Champions League Queek