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Speaker 1: Happy Wednesday and welcome to another episode of the check podcast.

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Speaker 2: Let me give you a quick rundown.

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Speaker 1: I have just come off the air of a three

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Speaker 1: hour live stream of a watch with broadcast that I

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Speaker 1: did with my friend Chrys Saliza in collaboration with YouTube

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Speaker 1: and c Span, where we got to do live running

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Speaker 1: commentary as the President was speaking, as well as with

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Speaker 1: the Democratic response.

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Speaker 2: Was a unique thing.

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Speaker 1: Was essentially doing what I always do for a stud

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Speaker 1: of the Union but instead of just job owning with

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Speaker 1: a colleague as we watch before we go on the

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Speaker 1: air to get my thirty second take ready to go

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Speaker 1: post State of the Union, we just sort of went

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Speaker 1: along with it on running commentary. So I will admit

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Speaker 1: it is in some ways I've never been You're in

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Speaker 1: some ways very informed about the speech itself, but I'll

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Speaker 1: give you a rundown, so a little bit of that.

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Speaker 2: I want to go through.

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Speaker 1: A few interesting different type of poll that my friend

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Speaker 1: Dante Cheni, who runs the Americans Communities Project, which is

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Speaker 1: a project that is housed inside of Michigan's University, some

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Speaker 1: interesting findings that he got in.

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Speaker 2: His recent survey.

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Speaker 1: Sort of what real populism would look like if you

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Speaker 1: actually pursued a populist agenda, and by definition, that means

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Speaker 1: things that are where there's more than fifty percent of

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Speaker 1: the public is in favor of and it's across the

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Speaker 1: board whether you're in urban or rural America.

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Speaker 2: So I want to get through that.

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Speaker 1: I have my top my new top five list of

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Speaker 1: Senate of potential Senate flips, but I'm also going to

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Speaker 1: use it to update a few things and some few

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Speaker 1: competitive Senate races including sort of.

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Speaker 2: What I have.

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Speaker 1: You know, I think I've certainly added Minnesota to my

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Speaker 1: campaign watch list. I think Michelle Tafoya in particular, is

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Speaker 1: going to make that more competitive. I think in a

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Speaker 1: year like this, if Trump is unpopular, it's going to

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Speaker 1: be hard for Republican to win a light blue state

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Speaker 1: like Minnesota. But Republicans have put another seat in play.

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Speaker 1: But Democrats also appear to have strengthened their hand a

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Speaker 1: bit since the last time I did this in both

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Speaker 1: Alaska and Maine. So with that, though, let's get started

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Speaker 1: about the state of the Union.

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Speaker 2: So I'm going to.

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Speaker 1: I think this is going to be one of those

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Speaker 1: speeches where our fragmented ecosystem. You know, if you are

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Speaker 1: deep in the magabase, you're going to love everything you saw,

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Speaker 1: and it is in the base of the party is

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Speaker 1: going to love the own the Libs moments that the President,

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Speaker 1: who was a bit low energy for most of the night,

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Speaker 1: and as Chris would point out, whenever he's reading from

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Speaker 1: a teleprompter, his energy is down. When he is just riffing,

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Speaker 1: he has more energy than when he's concentrating and trying

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Speaker 1: to read the teleprompter. And this was a night he

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Speaker 1: stayed with the teleprompter because there was a lot of stagecraft,

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Speaker 1: since this was a lot of metals that he chose

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Speaker 1: to he chose to hang out. But there was a

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Speaker 1: you know, going into the speech in theory, there were

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Speaker 1: some opportunities for him right this is there is a

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Speaker 1: lot of skepticism that this is a healthy economy. You

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Speaker 1: see Independence are souring, There's some questions about what is

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Speaker 1: what is he up to with Iran, what's going on

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Speaker 1: with Ice. So there was an opportunity to reset, opportunity

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Speaker 1: for clarity on certain issues, and potentially an opportunity to

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Speaker 1: introduce some new ideas. So what the speech I think

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Speaker 1: mostly was was more of trying to just celebrate him

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Speaker 1: a little bit and and sort of celebrate the stuff

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Speaker 1: that animates is based the most. I thought starting with

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Speaker 1: immigration and with the border was the smartest way to start,

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Speaker 1: because it is the one accomplishment where he's got the

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Speaker 1: largest number of folks and the electorate who agree it

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Speaker 1: is an accomplishment. How all of his other accomplishment he

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Speaker 1: touts is not necessarily in something that the general public

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Speaker 1: agrees with. I thought his tone in the economy couldn't

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Speaker 1: have been worse if you're a Republican on the ballot

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Speaker 1: in twenty twenty six, because he was very dismissive of

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Speaker 1: the idea that this is not a healthy economy. Essentially,

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Speaker 1: it's trying to do the Jedi mind trigg. This is

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Speaker 1: an amazing economy. It's the greatest economy ever. It's going

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Speaker 1: like gangbusters. Never before has anybody seen, right, And when

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Speaker 1: you hear the never before, that should be a trigger, like, oh,

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Speaker 1: he's making something up, right. There's a couple of trigger

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Speaker 1: phrases when he says when he repeats dialogue and quotes

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Speaker 1: somebody supposedly talking to him, and it begins with the words, sir,

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Speaker 1: you know it's something that's never been said, and that

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Speaker 1: he made up the anecdote. The other trigger phrases never

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Speaker 1: before seen, you know. And I think on the economy

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Speaker 1: he really whift and then you really noticed it, not

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Speaker 1: at when you heard the Democratic response by Abigail Spenberg,

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Speaker 1: who I think did as good of a job as

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Speaker 1: you can in that situation. Generally, there's a really well

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Speaker 1: crafted speech, and I'll get to that in a few minutes,

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Speaker 1: but in general, I think he really hift in the economy.

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Speaker 1: The interesting decision he made was to and this isn't

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Speaker 1: the worst idea if you're unpopular, which is you hide

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Speaker 1: behind everybody else you try to get some reflected glory.

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Speaker 1: It started, of course with the Olympic hockey team, and

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Speaker 1: boy he sat. I mean, I think we went a

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Speaker 1: good ten minutes with the Olympic Hockey team at the

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Speaker 1: State of the Union, and in fact he it is

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Speaker 1: where he began what turned into his own little awards show.

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Speaker 1: I mean, this was the Kennedy I think he gave

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Speaker 1: out more awards at that State of the Union than

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Speaker 1: he did when he hosted the Kennedy excuse me, the

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Speaker 1: Trump Kennedy Center Honors, I guess is what he's going

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Speaker 1: to refer to it now. But it started with giving

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Speaker 1: the Presidential Men of Freedom immediately, which and let me

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Speaker 1: say a word about these awards, because these are incredibly

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Speaker 1: these are amazing honors to receive the Medal of Honor

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Speaker 1: in particular right the highest award you can receive as

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Speaker 1: an enlisted.

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Speaker 2: Member of the military.

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Speaker 1: And he handed up too. Last night, he handed out

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Speaker 1: a purple heart, which not to not to pick at

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Speaker 1: knits here, it's not one hundred percent clear that if

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Speaker 1: you weren't in combat, that you should get a purple heart,

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Speaker 1: that it was a different type of award.

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Speaker 2: But he wanted to give up.

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Speaker 1: He wanted to give an award to the National guardsmen

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Speaker 1: that lost their life and the National guardsmen who survived

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Speaker 1: the attack, and of course he did the present it.

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Speaker 1: Here's the thing about it is, these are incredible honors.

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Speaker 1: The ceremonies where these are normal, these sort of the

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Speaker 1: traditional ceremonies for Medal of Honor where you spend a

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Speaker 1: good ten minutes getting to know the recipient, getting to

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Speaker 1: know the battle itself. And he he's sort of short circuited.

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Speaker 1: I mean, he told the longer story in the Venezuela story,

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Speaker 1: but he kind of short shrifted the Korean War veteran

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Speaker 1: a little bit. And again, I don't want to take

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Speaker 1: away these are incredible honors for these for these gentlemen.

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Speaker 1: And you know, by the way, with a son in Dallas.

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Speaker 1: Now I think I've gotten to see the Medal of

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Speaker 1: Honor museum and it's amazing something. By the way, it's

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Speaker 1: a gift of the Jones family, Jerry Jones, Charlotte Jones,

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Speaker 1: Stephen Jones. It is a terrific I love the fact

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Speaker 1: that they put it in the complex with AT and

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Speaker 1: T Stadium, because look, you know, sometimes museums as destinations

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Speaker 1: don't always get gawkers. But if you're going to be

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Speaker 1: hanging out and tailgating for eight hours at a Cowboys game,

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Speaker 1: I'd love for you to take thirty minutes take your

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Speaker 1: son through the Medal of Honor museum.

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Speaker 2: So I think it's a I like that.

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Speaker 1: I like, you know, let's take let's nothing wrong with

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Speaker 1: using a football game to teach a little bit about

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Speaker 1: American history, right, And the most moving ceremonies I've witnessed

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Speaker 1: are these Medal of Honor ceremonies that presidents do, and

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Speaker 1: I've gone to quite a few of them, So I

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Speaker 1: just because I've experienced so many of them and there's

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Speaker 1: just such important. Look, I really hope the White House

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Speaker 1: still does the still lets these gentlemen invite families, still

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Speaker 1: has the White House celebration. I mean, there's you know,

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Speaker 1: that's part of the experience for the honoree. So I'm

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Speaker 1: not going to presume that they're going to short shircuit that.

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Speaker 1: I mean, if anything, I think the President loves himself

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Speaker 1: a good event at the White House, and he loves

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Speaker 1: playing hosts, so I assume he will. But this was

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Speaker 1: a little there was a I don't think this is

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Speaker 1: going to play well with There's a bit gimmicky to

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Speaker 1: sort of overload it. I mean, we've taken something that

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Speaker 1: began with Reagan State of the Unions, where he would

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Speaker 1: start to single out folks in it, and every president,

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Speaker 1: you know, like everything, any good idea becomes contagious, and

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Speaker 1: it's in some ways Trump like everything. Right, he the

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Speaker 1: words Moderation has never been something Donald Trump is about.

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Speaker 2: It has agreed to.

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Speaker 1: He doesn't moderate his temperament, he doesn't moderate his politics,

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Speaker 1: he doesn't moderate his ego. He doesn't moderate, right, That's

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Speaker 1: just not who he is. But this felt a little,

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Speaker 1: a little gimmicky, like we were at an awards show.

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Speaker 1: But again, I you know, I think the base loved it.

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Speaker 1: I think the base was fine with it. This is

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Speaker 1: who they have come to know and love and there

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Speaker 1: and this is what they do with Donald Trump. And

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Speaker 1: I think it certainly if you're his minders here and

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Speaker 1: you wanted to keep him from totally you know, he

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Speaker 1: did hold his tongue a bit. On the Supreme Court

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Speaker 1: called it a disappointing ruling, but he didn't personally attack

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Speaker 1: any justices. I guess we can call that a small win.

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Speaker 1: The only time he ever animated is when he sorted,

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Speaker 1: you know, attacking Democrats, which again is the State of

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Speaker 1: the Union is a night where a president has an

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Speaker 1: opportunity to be president for all Americans, or you can

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Speaker 1: choose to be a political candidate. He chose to be

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Speaker 1: a party leader rather than the president. So but again,

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Speaker 1: it will mask you know, his feedback loop. He will

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Speaker 1: hear not a lot of good things in members of

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Speaker 1: Congress on the Republican side of the aisle. When they

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Speaker 1: the base, they'll hear good things from the base about

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Speaker 1: that speech. So it will it might sort of keep

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Speaker 1: some of them in check. But these are the same

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Speaker 1: members that are in swing districts. Actually, the ones in

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Speaker 1: swing districts, most of them are bailing. They're not running again.

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Speaker 1: But I think it's masking the problem because he didn't

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Speaker 1: speak to the middle of the electorate. And again I

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Speaker 1: go back, it's the Democratic response, which was, like I said,

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Speaker 1: incredibly well crafted. She started with messaging first and then.

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Speaker 2: She introduced herself.

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Speaker 1: She sort of the message was simple, you know, is

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Speaker 1: he looking out for you? Is he looking out for

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Speaker 1: your for It was a very simple message. It was straightforward,

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Speaker 1: It wasn't. I think what's interesting are the issues that

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Speaker 1: because trust me, these democratic responses are very much they're

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Speaker 1: a bit micromanaged. Any of these responses when I say

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Speaker 1: democratic in this case, the democratic response, when it's a

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Speaker 1: Republican response, there's a lot of cooks in the kitchen

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Speaker 1: as far as messaging is concerned, like please mention this issue,

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Speaker 1: don't mention this issue, et cetera. Right, And in many

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Speaker 1: ways it is sort of what the person giving the response,

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Speaker 1: particularly an election, is doing, is basically this is what

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Speaker 1: party leaders are saying, these are the issues we're comfortable

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Speaker 1: running on, by virtue of the person they pick, and

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Speaker 1: also the issues that are thrown in there. I think

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Speaker 1: the reason you pick somebody who has just come off

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Speaker 1: the trail is that you know, she's been on the

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Speaker 1: front line. She's been out there talking to people. She's,

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Speaker 1: in theory right, been in front of the voters more

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Speaker 1: recently than any member of Congress has been in.

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Speaker 2: Front of voters.

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Speaker 1: But I thought she acquitted herself quite well. I thought

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Speaker 1: it was you know, in the different settings you picked.

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Speaker 1: This is, believe it or not, the fourth Virginian in

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Speaker 1: the twenty first century that has given the response. Three Democrats,

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Speaker 1: Jim Webb, Abigail Spamberger, and Tim Kaine, and one Republican

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Speaker 1: Bob McDonald. Glen Young Cain never ended up giving one.

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Speaker 1: I think they're maybe we can be mildly surprised that

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Speaker 1: he never made.

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Speaker 2: The cut there.

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Speaker 1: But it was one of the where you're like, Okay,

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Speaker 1: if you're just doing the focus group, I promise you

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Speaker 1: she'd focus group better with independence than the President did,

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Speaker 1: because I can just tell you what issues have been

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Speaker 1: popping up among independence and where they sour the most.

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Speaker 1: So I expect you know these these days, the state

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Speaker 1: of the unions don't have a lot of legs. And

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Speaker 1: because the President didn't introduce many new ideas, the biggest,

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Speaker 1: sort of the freshest idea is the getting the AI

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Speaker 1: companies do essentially find their own sources of power so

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Speaker 1: that it does not fall onto.

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Speaker 2: You and I to.

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Speaker 1: See our power bills go up because of these AI

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Speaker 1: data centers. That is one of those that's got bipartisan

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Speaker 1: appeal and it's almost like a table stakes type of

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Speaker 1: issue to be for I think everybody that's one of those.

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Speaker 1: You're not going to get much disagreement on that, except

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Speaker 1: from perhaps the AI companies who don't want to have

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Speaker 1: to So, like everything, the devil will be in the

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Speaker 1: details on this one, and we'll see if it's something

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Speaker 1: that can that can actually get through Congress. If I

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Speaker 1: were to say, the most surprising thing I heard, and

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Speaker 1: of substance, was this rationale he was putting out there

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Speaker 1: for Iran. He at one point talked about, first of all,

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Speaker 1: this is where the contradiction comes in. This is where

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Speaker 1: Iran feels like this is a this he could be

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Speaker 1: opening a Pandora's box. So on the one hand, and

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Speaker 1: he says, we obliterated their nuclear arsenal, and everything they

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Speaker 1: were doing, we obliterated it.

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Speaker 2: He said that in the speech.

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Speaker 1: He also said if they will just promise they'll never

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Speaker 1: seek a nuclear weapon, then maybe we can do a deal.

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Speaker 1: But they can't make that promise. And then he said,

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Speaker 1: look this regime they're making, they're they're they already have

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Speaker 1: ballistic missiles that can hit Europe and they'll soon have

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Speaker 1: ballistic missiles that can hit the United States. That sounded

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Speaker 1: like a pretext.

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Speaker 2: This it Rang.

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Speaker 1: This is saying, hey, Saddam has weapons of mass destruction,

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Speaker 1: to say Iran could have ballistic missiles that hit the

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Speaker 1: United States. North Korea already has it. So if you're

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Speaker 1: going after Iran, so are we going to North Korean acts?

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Speaker 1: But I don't think this is going to play well

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Speaker 1: with the more isolationist wing of his base, let alone

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Speaker 1: the exhausted majority that isn't crazy about an adventure and

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Speaker 1: a military adventure gone wrong here. And I will say,

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Speaker 1: I do think the president is feeling his oats on

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Speaker 1: some of these, on some of these international adventures.

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Speaker 2: Right. First of all, it goes back to his first term.

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Speaker 1: A lot of people, including close aids of his, warned

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Speaker 1: him that assassinating Solamani could cause all sorts of problems,

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Speaker 1: had minimal, minimal pushback. Then the bombing Iran's nuclear side

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Speaker 1: that was going to cause wider could cause wider problems.

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Speaker 2: It didn't.

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Speaker 1: So Ditto and Maduro seemed to go smoothly. Although that's

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Speaker 1: another one where he is no longer. He didn't once

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Speaker 1: talk about democracy in Venezuela. It didn't he There was

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Speaker 1: not even a fig leaf the entire Venezuela conversation in

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Speaker 1: the State of the Union, was about the oil and

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Speaker 1: about yes, he talked about her the new president, releasing

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Speaker 1: the political prisoner of it. She's illegally in office. This

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Speaker 1: was a this was a stolen election, as monitored by

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Speaker 1: the entire free world. All of that last election was rigged.

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Speaker 1: So she is not even arguably shouldn't be in office.

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Speaker 1: But we are not talking about any sort of democratic

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Speaker 1: replacement yet. And he talks to her as if this is,

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Speaker 1: you know, some sort of incredible relationship. And at the

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Speaker 1: same time he talked about the thugs of Maduro and

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Speaker 1: what that horrible regime was doing. You're still working with

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Speaker 1: the Maduro regime, mister president, and you're don't seem to

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Speaker 1: be that interested in promoting democracy. I know that's not

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Speaker 1: what Marco Rubio wants. Look, he got the president to

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Speaker 1: do Venezuela because of the oil. We know this, but

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Speaker 1: it's going to I'm curious how he's going to get

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Speaker 1: the president to start to care about freedom and democracy

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Speaker 1: in Venezuela because he did not talk about it at all.

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Speaker 1: And again, now back to Iran, that was I mean,

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Speaker 1: you know, this is the same guy that criticized Bush

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Speaker 1: and Cheney for Iraq in Afghanistan. This is the same

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Speaker 1: guy that said a democrat, we're itching to start a

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Speaker 1: war with the Ron, and he has now had the

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Speaker 1: most expansive pretext. I mean, Lindsey Graham was ecstatic to

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Speaker 1: hear that ballistic missiles could be a pretext to attack

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Speaker 1: the Chucktodcast. So, look, it is hard to imagine we

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Speaker 1: were that we would somehow not hit Iran after amassing

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Speaker 1: this entire the arsenal that we have amassed in the

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Speaker 1: Middle East. But that's one one of the things I

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Speaker 1: was looking for to see what was going to be

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Speaker 1: how is he going to.

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Speaker 2: Talk about Iran?

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Speaker 1: And look, I'm I'm skeptical that that, because I you know, what,

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Speaker 1: how does this? What do we do next week? And

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Speaker 1: what are we bombing? Are we trying to prevent them

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Speaker 1: from getting a nuclear weapon? Or are we doing regime change?

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Speaker 1: And he seemed to sort of kind of offer up

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Speaker 1: potentially in all of the above. Right, he talked about

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Speaker 1: the brutality that the regime made against the protesters, So

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Speaker 1: he I think there's I think how he put around

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Speaker 1: out there.

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Speaker 2: He left open.

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Speaker 1: And then what I think is a just a huge

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Speaker 1: faux pam and is probably going to cause the President

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Speaker 1: of Mexico some political problems is that he basically took credit.

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Speaker 1: You know, it was very careful, right, There's no doubt

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Speaker 1: the US intelligence helped the Mexican government get this cartel leader.

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Speaker 1: But the President claimed credit for it at the State

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Speaker 1: of the Union, which of course is what many people

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Speaker 1: may think already in Mexico. But it's important that this

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Speaker 1: is seen as Mexican led if you want to continue

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Speaker 1: to have the will of the people on this one.

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Speaker 1: And I think to to sort of and again he's

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Speaker 1: I joke, I'd love to play poker with Donald Trump,

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Speaker 1: because I'm not. You know, he's he tells, he tells

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Speaker 1: you everything. He eventually tells you everything. And I have

435
00:25:35,440 --> 00:25:38,480
Speaker 1: no doubt we played a huge role in pressuring the

436
00:25:38,520 --> 00:25:43,200
Speaker 1: Mexican government to do that. But to keep the Mexican

437
00:25:43,240 --> 00:25:47,520
Speaker 1: government credible, you can't do what he did there, and

438
00:25:47,600 --> 00:25:51,840
Speaker 1: that was you know, this is this is why you know,

439
00:25:51,960 --> 00:25:55,560
Speaker 1: our partnerships and our allies are not feeling like allies

440
00:25:55,600 --> 00:25:58,520
Speaker 1: these days. They feel like that Trump will sell them out,

441
00:25:58,600 --> 00:26:01,760
Speaker 1: throw them under the bus. Just to get credit or

442
00:26:01,760 --> 00:26:05,120
Speaker 1: whatever it is. But that that is one of those

443
00:26:05,160 --> 00:26:09,840
Speaker 1: where I have a feeling there's going to be there's

444
00:26:09,920 --> 00:26:14,880
Speaker 1: some adjuta and I'm sure Marco Rubio is having to

445
00:26:15,480 --> 00:26:18,200
Speaker 1: calm things down a little bit with his Mexican counterparts

446
00:26:18,880 --> 00:26:22,639
Speaker 1: on that one. But it was a long speech. And

447
00:26:22,760 --> 00:26:25,080
Speaker 1: one thing we've learned from these speeches these days is

448
00:26:25,119 --> 00:26:28,520
Speaker 1: that the people who watch are usually the true believers.

449
00:26:29,680 --> 00:26:32,840
Speaker 1: There are a handful of hate watchers, and you know

450
00:26:33,040 --> 00:26:35,879
Speaker 1: the people in the middle, Well, you have about fifteen

451
00:26:35,880 --> 00:26:37,480
Speaker 1: to twenty minutes at the start of the speech to

452
00:26:37,520 --> 00:26:39,679
Speaker 1: talk to them. And I think when you start to

453
00:26:39,680 --> 00:26:41,720
Speaker 1: look at how he did the speech. Yes, he celebrated

454
00:26:41,720 --> 00:26:45,440
Speaker 1: the gold medal. That was great, But did he move

455
00:26:45,480 --> 00:26:48,359
Speaker 1: the needle to answer the public's criticism about is he

456
00:26:48,400 --> 00:26:50,760
Speaker 1: focused enough on the economy? Is he focused enough on

457
00:26:50,800 --> 00:26:57,280
Speaker 1: bringing down costs? And the polls indicate no, by a lot,

458
00:26:57,400 --> 00:27:02,600
Speaker 1: not by a little. And that speech night it wasn't

459
00:27:02,640 --> 00:27:05,560
Speaker 1: the reset that I know some Republicans wanted to see.

460
00:27:05,960 --> 00:27:08,879
Speaker 1: Wasn't a disaster and the bass is going to love it.

461
00:27:09,480 --> 00:27:12,160
Speaker 1: You know what's worse is if your bass were disappointed

462
00:27:12,240 --> 00:27:15,960
Speaker 1: and were frustrated, but there's a lot of there's a

463
00:27:15,960 --> 00:27:19,600
Speaker 1: lot of unknowns here, you know, like I said, Iran

464
00:27:19,680 --> 00:27:22,119
Speaker 1: could not play well. He may have opened up a

465
00:27:22,160 --> 00:27:30,960
Speaker 1: problem with Mexico on that front. And it's also just

466
00:27:31,000 --> 00:27:36,120
Speaker 1: as likely that it just it just you know, he's

467
00:27:37,480 --> 00:27:39,960
Speaker 1: he's sort of Charlie Brown's the Adults and a Charlie

468
00:27:39,960 --> 00:27:45,160
Speaker 1: Brown cartoon, where outside of his base, many Americans now

469
00:27:45,160 --> 00:27:48,320
Speaker 1: here won't wah wah wah wah wah. Right, there is

470
00:27:48,359 --> 00:27:52,040
Speaker 1: an exhaustion from him and from the chaos and from

471
00:27:52,080 --> 00:27:53,080
Speaker 1: the constant churn.

472
00:27:53,840 --> 00:27:54,520
Speaker 2: That's why he.

473
00:27:54,440 --> 00:27:57,600
Speaker 1: Didn't win reelection the first time. It's why he lost

474
00:27:57,600 --> 00:27:59,720
Speaker 1: the mid terms the first time. You know what's interesting

475
00:27:59,760 --> 00:28:02,440
Speaker 1: about there is a pattern here with Donald Trump the politician.

476
00:28:03,880 --> 00:28:08,480
Speaker 1: When he's at when he's making the case against somebody

477
00:28:08,520 --> 00:28:12,720
Speaker 1: in power, he's pretty half decent politician twenty sixteen, twenty

478
00:28:12,760 --> 00:28:16,760
Speaker 1: twenty four. When he's having to defend his policies or

479
00:28:16,760 --> 00:28:21,159
Speaker 1: make the case for himself, he struggles twenty eighteen, midterms,

480
00:28:21,480 --> 00:28:23,800
Speaker 1: twenty twenty and now we're seeing it again in twenty

481
00:28:23,840 --> 00:28:27,960
Speaker 1: twenty six. Look, it's a lot easier to be against

482
00:28:28,000 --> 00:28:32,760
Speaker 1: something than to run on something. And we know Donald

483
00:28:32,800 --> 00:28:37,120
Speaker 1: Trump would rather run against someone or something than have

484
00:28:37,200 --> 00:28:41,440
Speaker 1: to defend and run on something. We got a taste

485
00:28:41,480 --> 00:28:45,840
Speaker 1: of that in that speech tonight. But if this was designed,

486
00:28:45,880 --> 00:28:48,280
Speaker 1: if this was supposed to fix the problems going into

487
00:28:48,280 --> 00:28:51,840
Speaker 1: the midterm and give the Republicans a message to run on,

488
00:28:53,080 --> 00:28:54,840
Speaker 1: I think in that sense this speech.

489
00:28:54,560 --> 00:28:55,160
Speaker 2: Came up short.

490
00:28:57,360 --> 00:29:01,760
Speaker 1: And look it is you know one of the things

491
00:29:01,800 --> 00:29:09,360
Speaker 1: about the moment we're in and about whether my substack

492
00:29:09,440 --> 00:29:12,040
Speaker 1: this week is titled the sixty percent Country and why

493
00:29:12,080 --> 00:29:15,000
Speaker 1: neither party can reach it. And it's based on what

494
00:29:15,080 --> 00:29:17,880
Speaker 1: my friend Dante Cheney's been doing with the American Communities Project,

495
00:29:18,280 --> 00:29:20,560
Speaker 1: and what he does is he splits the electorate up

496
00:29:20,560 --> 00:29:24,080
Speaker 1: by county type. It goes through fifteen different counties, but

497
00:29:24,160 --> 00:29:26,920
Speaker 1: he does a survey and he looks at it that

498
00:29:26,960 --> 00:29:29,080
Speaker 1: way rather than looking at it through red and blue

499
00:29:29,120 --> 00:29:32,800
Speaker 1: and independent. You look at it sort of where people live.

500
00:29:32,880 --> 00:29:37,120
Speaker 1: And what's interesting is what actually unites Americans and whether

501
00:29:37,400 --> 00:29:40,720
Speaker 1: they live in the rural rural counties or where they

502
00:29:40,760 --> 00:29:44,560
Speaker 1: live in urban counties. One of the things that unites

503
00:29:44,920 --> 00:29:52,080
Speaker 1: the majority of the Americans is this large majorities of

504
00:29:52,200 --> 00:29:55,640
Speaker 1: pose cutting social programs to lower taxes. Only about a

505
00:29:55,720 --> 00:29:58,760
Speaker 1: quarter of Americans support that trade off right, Roughly three

506
00:29:58,800 --> 00:30:00,840
Speaker 1: quarters believe the government should ma teams some form of

507
00:30:00,840 --> 00:30:05,040
Speaker 1: safety net. So we're pro safety net. Okay, that is

508
00:30:05,120 --> 00:30:07,800
Speaker 1: that is that is a large that is the consensus.

509
00:30:07,800 --> 00:30:09,920
Speaker 1: We're pro safety net. We can have disagreements to how

510
00:30:09,960 --> 00:30:12,280
Speaker 1: big it should be, how many people should qualify, but

511
00:30:12,400 --> 00:30:18,240
Speaker 1: in general, if we can, the country's for it. Nearly

512
00:30:18,280 --> 00:30:21,800
Speaker 1: two thirds, No matter where part of the country you survey,

513
00:30:22,040 --> 00:30:24,320
Speaker 1: nearly two thirds believe the economy is rigged to advantage

514
00:30:24,360 --> 00:30:26,760
Speaker 1: the rich and powerful. What did Donald Trump do in

515
00:30:26,760 --> 00:30:30,160
Speaker 1: the State of the Union to push back on that concept?

516
00:30:30,200 --> 00:30:32,280
Speaker 1: And if anything, Abigail's Bamberger that was kind of a

517
00:30:32,280 --> 00:30:36,440
Speaker 1: punchline in hers. And this is something that unites left,

518
00:30:36,480 --> 00:30:39,800
Speaker 1: right and center, this feeling that this is and this

519
00:30:39,840 --> 00:30:44,160
Speaker 1: is the quote Epstein class campaign messaging that you've seen

520
00:30:44,200 --> 00:30:47,720
Speaker 1: Rocanna and John ossoff use. Where hey, are there rules?

521
00:30:47,840 --> 00:30:49,560
Speaker 1: You know, rich people live by one set of the rules,

522
00:30:49,600 --> 00:30:51,120
Speaker 1: and the rest of us have to live by another

523
00:30:51,160 --> 00:30:57,720
Speaker 1: set of rules. Strong majorities believe the media is more

524
00:30:57,720 --> 00:31:00,520
Speaker 1: interested in making money than telling the truth. Well, we

525
00:31:00,600 --> 00:31:03,400
Speaker 1: see it now all over the place, whether it's legacy, cable,

526
00:31:03,480 --> 00:31:06,760
Speaker 1: channels who are just trying to tell you what you

527
00:31:06,760 --> 00:31:09,120
Speaker 1: want to hear in order to desperately get that. Or

528
00:31:09,160 --> 00:31:12,400
Speaker 1: you have these influencers, right, people who just tell you

529
00:31:12,440 --> 00:31:15,400
Speaker 1: what you want to hear, just sort of dunk on

530
00:31:15,680 --> 00:31:21,640
Speaker 1: the other side and fire up the base without actually

531
00:31:21,680 --> 00:31:25,160
Speaker 1: being honest and telling you how this may have worked,

532
00:31:25,160 --> 00:31:28,400
Speaker 1: this may not have worked. And roughly two thirds, no

533
00:31:28,440 --> 00:31:30,960
Speaker 1: matter where you live in this country, agree that Americans

534
00:31:31,000 --> 00:31:33,600
Speaker 1: have more in common than we're led to believe. The

535
00:31:33,640 --> 00:31:36,920
Speaker 1: point is, imagine putting that together. You could create a

536
00:31:36,960 --> 00:31:40,080
Speaker 1: sixty percent government majority, protect the safety net, fix an

537
00:31:40,080 --> 00:31:43,680
Speaker 1: economy that's tilted upward, break the grip of concentrated power,

538
00:31:44,800 --> 00:31:47,959
Speaker 1: repair an information ecosystem people don't trust, and restore accountability

539
00:31:48,000 --> 00:31:51,520
Speaker 1: and government that's not friends positions. This to me is

540
00:31:51,560 --> 00:31:55,520
Speaker 1: a baseline, and it's an easy platform to run on it,

541
00:31:55,600 --> 00:32:00,320
Speaker 1: especially if you're an independent candidate. Now, when you start

542
00:32:00,360 --> 00:32:03,400
Speaker 1: to ask questions that include race and culture, that's where

543
00:32:03,440 --> 00:32:05,160
Speaker 1: you start to see the polarization, and that's what you

544
00:32:05,280 --> 00:32:09,959
Speaker 1: just start to see the dividing lines. And this is

545
00:32:10,000 --> 00:32:14,160
Speaker 1: where I think I don't know whether any member of

546
00:32:14,200 --> 00:32:16,800
Speaker 1: the either of the two major parties can credibly make

547
00:32:16,840 --> 00:32:18,280
Speaker 1: a case to the middle of the electorate.

548
00:32:18,640 --> 00:32:18,880
Speaker 2: Right.

549
00:32:19,000 --> 00:32:20,920
Speaker 1: One of the most stunning poll numbers I shared with you,

550
00:32:20,960 --> 00:32:22,880
Speaker 1: I think in the last episode, in the Washington Post

551
00:32:22,920 --> 00:32:28,280
Speaker 1: poll that showed Trump's numbers in terrible shape, Democrats were

552
00:32:28,280 --> 00:32:31,920
Speaker 1: not benefiting. When you were asking what's the most important problem?

553
00:32:32,280 --> 00:32:34,400
Speaker 1: Who do you trust to handle the most important problems?

554
00:32:34,520 --> 00:32:36,400
Speaker 1: It was literally a tie. The third said Trump, a

555
00:32:36,480 --> 00:32:41,840
Speaker 1: third said Democrats, and the third said neither. And which

556
00:32:42,680 --> 00:32:45,880
Speaker 1: just look at the results, right. We've been voting that

557
00:32:45,920 --> 00:32:48,800
Speaker 1: way for a while. We know who we don't want.

558
00:32:48,840 --> 00:32:52,080
Speaker 1: Every time a party gets power the next election, we

559
00:32:52,200 --> 00:32:54,680
Speaker 1: vote them out, whether it's you know, I mean we

560
00:32:54,720 --> 00:32:57,160
Speaker 1: have voted out. I mean, I'll put it this way.

561
00:32:57,760 --> 00:32:59,800
Speaker 1: The party in control of the House has been voted

562
00:32:59,800 --> 00:33:02,320
Speaker 1: out century in twenty oh six, twenty ten, twenty eighteen,

563
00:33:02,320 --> 00:33:04,680
Speaker 1: and twenty twenty two. And we may add a fifth time,

564
00:33:06,160 --> 00:33:08,600
Speaker 1: the fifth time in the first twenty five years of

565
00:33:08,640 --> 00:33:12,440
Speaker 1: this of this century, the Senate majority has slipped in six, fourteen,

566
00:33:12,520 --> 00:33:16,200
Speaker 1: twenty twenty, and twenty twenty four. Probably ought I wanted

567
00:33:16,200 --> 00:33:19,240
Speaker 1: three chances of flipping this time, And of course the

568
00:33:19,280 --> 00:33:25,680
Speaker 1: presidency has flipped in twenty sixteen, Right, twenty oh eight,

569
00:33:25,840 --> 00:33:29,400
Speaker 1: twenty sixteen, twenty twenty, and twenty twenty four. So each

570
00:33:29,400 --> 00:33:31,120
Speaker 1: of these chambers, the House is sentate and the president

571
00:33:31,160 --> 00:33:33,959
Speaker 1: has all flipped at least four times where the voters

572
00:33:34,000 --> 00:33:37,320
Speaker 1: have just wanted the other party right. And it's not

573
00:33:37,320 --> 00:33:39,880
Speaker 1: necessarily they're buying what the other party is selling. They're

574
00:33:39,920 --> 00:33:43,000
Speaker 1: just not buying what the other party was.

575
00:33:42,960 --> 00:33:43,680
Speaker 2: Doing in power.

576
00:33:45,000 --> 00:33:47,440
Speaker 1: And now that we've done this so much, the party

577
00:33:47,480 --> 00:33:49,480
Speaker 1: out of power is not getting the same benefit of

578
00:33:49,520 --> 00:33:52,800
Speaker 1: the doubt that they would get previously, and it's been

579
00:33:52,840 --> 00:33:56,200
Speaker 1: diminishing benefit of the doubt. Right Trump had this highest

580
00:33:56,200 --> 00:33:58,880
Speaker 1: benefit of the doubt, and after sixteen he had a

581
00:33:58,920 --> 00:34:01,120
Speaker 1: much lower benefit of the doubt going into twenty four

582
00:34:02,280 --> 00:34:04,640
Speaker 1: Right Republicans had the highest benefit of doubt after twenty

583
00:34:04,680 --> 00:34:07,880
Speaker 1: ten as congressional majorities, then it would diminish even as

584
00:34:07,880 --> 00:34:10,800
Speaker 1: they succeeded in twenty fourteen. Did it with the Democrats

585
00:34:10,800 --> 00:34:13,839
Speaker 1: they had the highest arguably after twenty eight and even

586
00:34:13,880 --> 00:34:15,920
Speaker 1: when they got it back in twenty eighteen and twenty twenty,

587
00:34:15,920 --> 00:34:20,319
Speaker 1: they didn't have the same level on that front. So

588
00:34:23,560 --> 00:34:27,120
Speaker 1: I have a feeling that a minute, an elected official minute,

589
00:34:27,200 --> 00:34:30,120
Speaker 1: anybody puts a party ID label next to their name

590
00:34:30,200 --> 00:34:33,040
Speaker 1: that says deer R. It means you have two thirds

591
00:34:33,040 --> 00:34:34,839
Speaker 1: of the country that are going to be skeptical to

592
00:34:34,880 --> 00:34:38,160
Speaker 1: what you have to say, and we have a quarter

593
00:34:38,200 --> 00:34:42,440
Speaker 1: century of elections to prove it. And yet you see

594
00:34:42,440 --> 00:34:46,200
Speaker 1: there are some clear, actual populist issues.

595
00:34:45,840 --> 00:34:46,839
Speaker 2: You could be running on.

596
00:34:48,600 --> 00:34:54,080
Speaker 1: That would be majoritarian issues fifty five to sixty five

597
00:34:54,120 --> 00:34:59,120
Speaker 1: percent supporting issues. When you start to look at it,

598
00:34:59,120 --> 00:35:02,719
Speaker 1: it's actually the fd OUR coalition right. The New Deal

599
00:35:02,880 --> 00:35:05,880
Speaker 1: united urban workers, rural farmers, industrial labor, and large swads

600
00:35:05,880 --> 00:35:09,520
Speaker 1: in the middle class around a single shared premise government

601
00:35:09,640 --> 00:35:11,399
Speaker 1: would stabilize capitalism and make.

602
00:35:11,320 --> 00:35:12,480
Speaker 2: It work for ordinary people.

603
00:35:13,680 --> 00:35:15,880
Speaker 1: Now, he made a bunch of compromises that look that

604
00:35:16,000 --> 00:35:18,920
Speaker 1: still remained controversial, but he stayed out of race and

605
00:35:18,960 --> 00:35:21,800
Speaker 1: culture for the most part because he wanted to stick

606
00:35:22,280 --> 00:35:26,879
Speaker 1: to the economy and the democracy, and it allowed him

607
00:35:26,960 --> 00:35:34,279
Speaker 1: to essentially make big changes because he was pushing issues

608
00:35:35,360 --> 00:35:41,759
Speaker 1: that had the largest number of voters in support of them.

609
00:35:41,960 --> 00:35:43,919
Speaker 1: And that's what we haven't had this century. We haven't

610
00:35:43,920 --> 00:35:47,000
Speaker 1: had a president who aimed for the sixty percent. Nobody's

611
00:35:47,000 --> 00:35:49,759
Speaker 1: going to win sixty percent of the ballot box. But

612
00:35:49,800 --> 00:35:51,680
Speaker 1: when I was growing up, presidents wanted to have sixty

613
00:35:51,680 --> 00:35:56,440
Speaker 1: percent job writings. And basically we've only had like a

614
00:35:56,480 --> 00:35:59,080
Speaker 1: couple of accidental moments this century where we've had presidents

615
00:35:59,080 --> 00:36:02,560
Speaker 1: get over sixty Obama for a brief period in w

616
00:36:02,719 --> 00:36:04,279
Speaker 1: right after nine to eleven, but we haven't had it

617
00:36:04,320 --> 00:36:07,600
Speaker 1: really at all beyond a couple of blips in those

618
00:36:07,640 --> 00:36:12,480
Speaker 1: two presidencies. It was a regular feature of Clinton's towards

619
00:36:12,520 --> 00:36:17,120
Speaker 1: the end, of Reagan's towards the end, not at any

620
00:36:17,120 --> 00:36:20,360
Speaker 1: of the presidents of the seventies, I will grant you that.

621
00:36:22,360 --> 00:36:24,600
Speaker 1: But when you strive for sixty, you're gonna win over

622
00:36:24,640 --> 00:36:28,920
Speaker 1: the middle. And I tell you I look at it

623
00:36:28,920 --> 00:36:30,960
Speaker 1: this way. I think the lack of credibility that both

624
00:36:31,000 --> 00:36:34,680
Speaker 1: parties right now have for being for being able to

625
00:36:34,719 --> 00:36:38,080
Speaker 1: deliver on the problems they claim they can fix, on

626
00:36:38,160 --> 00:36:41,200
Speaker 1: the fixes to the problems that are out there, this

627
00:36:41,320 --> 00:36:43,360
Speaker 1: is why I think there's a moment here for, you know,

628
00:36:43,400 --> 00:36:47,040
Speaker 1: to shed the party label. And when you look at

629
00:36:47,239 --> 00:36:50,279
Speaker 1: when you look at these cross currents, in many ways,

630
00:36:50,320 --> 00:36:54,680
Speaker 1: the more credible salesperson in this country is likely to

631
00:36:54,719 --> 00:36:57,160
Speaker 1: be somebody who left one of the two parties and

632
00:36:57,200 --> 00:37:00,839
Speaker 1: declared their independence. And if you want ability to try

633
00:37:00,880 --> 00:37:03,480
Speaker 1: to get your message out there, in some ways, not

634
00:37:03,640 --> 00:37:05,719
Speaker 1: being associated with one of the two major parties right

635
00:37:05,760 --> 00:37:11,120
Speaker 1: now might weirdly be an advantage. Look, there's no doubt

636
00:37:11,160 --> 00:37:13,520
Speaker 1: I think the Democrats are poised to have a really

637
00:37:13,600 --> 00:37:15,840
Speaker 1: strong midterm year because you don't have to be for

638
00:37:16,080 --> 00:37:21,759
Speaker 1: anything in a midterm You can just be against. The

639
00:37:21,880 --> 00:37:24,920
Speaker 1: question is and look, and if you look at the

640
00:37:25,120 --> 00:37:29,359
Speaker 1: Democratic response by Governor Spamberger, she sort of showed you

641
00:37:28,840 --> 00:37:33,640
Speaker 1: you can. You don't really have to be prescriptive to

642
00:37:33,880 --> 00:37:38,520
Speaker 1: have a pretty what comes across as a robust agenda

643
00:37:38,719 --> 00:37:43,600
Speaker 1: and a robust platform to win office. Obviously, the real

644
00:37:43,719 --> 00:37:46,080
Speaker 1: challenge is going to be the next presidential in twenty eight.

645
00:37:47,440 --> 00:37:48,479
Speaker 2: But I just look at all.

646
00:37:48,360 --> 00:37:52,600
Speaker 1: This survey downa and you see there's an opportunity there

647
00:37:52,880 --> 00:37:59,240
Speaker 1: for an outsider to sort of to essentially go class

648
00:38:00,080 --> 00:38:04,560
Speaker 1: and dump the culture right, a good old fashioned class

649
00:38:04,560 --> 00:38:10,000
Speaker 1: politics here, the middle and working class versus the rich

650
00:38:10,040 --> 00:38:15,279
Speaker 1: and elite. That's a majority that's fairly easy to put

651
00:38:15,320 --> 00:38:20,880
Speaker 1: together if you're single mindedly focused on it. It's sitting

652
00:38:20,960 --> 00:38:27,359
Speaker 1: there to be to be rallied. The opportunity is there.

653
00:38:28,040 --> 00:38:30,600
Speaker 1: These poll numbers from the American Communities Projects show it.

654
00:38:31,360 --> 00:38:34,200
Speaker 1: The poll numbers that you see in the most recent Washington.

655
00:38:33,960 --> 00:38:35,920
Speaker 2: Post episodes show it. It's there.

656
00:38:36,040 --> 00:38:39,200
Speaker 1: The question is, you know, are there are there any

657
00:38:39,239 --> 00:38:41,400
Speaker 1: current elected officials who see the moment and say, you

658
00:38:41,400 --> 00:38:45,319
Speaker 1: know what, I'm gonna shit, I'm gonna declare my independence

659
00:38:45,320 --> 00:38:48,840
Speaker 1: from talking points and declare my independence from from from

660
00:38:49,120 --> 00:38:53,200
Speaker 1: you know, being forced into a blue box or a

661
00:38:53,239 --> 00:38:59,520
Speaker 1: red box. The country just wants some stability and some

662
00:38:59,560 --> 00:39:04,200
Speaker 1: common sense and cut down the chaos and cut down

663
00:39:04,239 --> 00:39:07,839
Speaker 1: the divisiveness. That's all they wanted. That's all they wanted

664
00:39:07,840 --> 00:39:11,440
Speaker 1: from Joe Biden, right, That's why he ended up. That's

665
00:39:11,440 --> 00:39:16,160
Speaker 1: why he did win in twenty twenty And in some ways,

666
00:39:16,160 --> 00:39:19,040
Speaker 1: Donald Trump is conducting a presidency a bit more chaotic

667
00:39:19,040 --> 00:39:25,400
Speaker 1: than his first one, because he's already got lower approval

668
00:39:25,480 --> 00:39:28,240
Speaker 1: ratings than he did in that first in some ways

669
00:39:28,560 --> 00:39:31,600
Speaker 1: the first term. You know, it's funny, these swing voters

670
00:39:32,520 --> 00:39:35,400
Speaker 1: that he won over in twenty twenty four, including younger

671
00:39:35,480 --> 00:39:39,600
Speaker 1: voters and Latino voters, they weren't emphatic Trump supporters. They

672
00:39:39,680 --> 00:39:43,040
Speaker 1: just decided they didn't They wanted to change direction from

673
00:39:43,040 --> 00:39:47,160
Speaker 1: what Biden and Harris did, and Trump thought they became

674
00:39:47,200 --> 00:39:51,560
Speaker 1: permanent members of his coalition. Well they have left, big time,

675
00:39:51,840 --> 00:39:56,800
Speaker 1: big lee, as the President might say, And it's because

676
00:39:57,600 --> 00:39:59,759
Speaker 1: I believe they thought they were voting for first term

677
00:39:59,760 --> 00:40:03,000
Speaker 1: tre and instead they got a whole different kind of

678
00:40:03,040 --> 00:40:07,200
Speaker 1: Donald Trump, one that's a little less, a little more unfiltered,

679
00:40:09,000 --> 00:40:13,879
Speaker 1: and even more unrestrained than he felt in the first turn.

680
00:40:15,880 --> 00:40:19,960
Speaker 1: So ultimately, I think the best time to gauge right,

681
00:40:20,040 --> 00:40:21,600
Speaker 1: be careful in the state of the Union polling.

682
00:40:21,640 --> 00:40:22,480
Speaker 2: By the way, if you see.

683
00:40:22,320 --> 00:40:26,359
Speaker 1: Any among speech watchers, well among speech watchers it's going

684
00:40:26,400 --> 00:40:31,120
Speaker 1: to skew towards the president. It's the polling in a

685
00:40:31,160 --> 00:40:34,120
Speaker 1: week that will tell us if this had any impact.

686
00:40:35,000 --> 00:40:38,759
Speaker 1: I'm skeptical, but I'm a data guy, so I'll wait

687
00:40:38,760 --> 00:40:42,719
Speaker 1: to see the data. All right, Let's sneak at a

688
00:40:42,760 --> 00:40:46,480
Speaker 1: break here when we come back. My conversation with Paul Oslander.

689
00:40:47,320 --> 00:40:53,480
Speaker 1: He's a sea bridge and he's any any basically advises

690
00:40:53,520 --> 00:40:58,600
Speaker 1: people personal people in the private you know, the personal

691
00:40:58,640 --> 00:41:03,160
Speaker 1: private and equity fund or any of that stuff. But

692
00:41:03,200 --> 00:41:06,880
Speaker 1: it's some straightforward, you know, brutally honest advice. How do

693
00:41:06,920 --> 00:41:09,680
Speaker 1: you navigate, how do you plan for your own retirement?

694
00:41:10,120 --> 00:41:13,240
Speaker 1: How do you plan with savings with this chaotic Trump economy?

695
00:41:13,600 --> 00:41:14,440
Speaker 2: It's not easy.

696
00:41:14,760 --> 00:41:16,520
Speaker 1: And this guy's on the front lines having to give

697
00:41:16,560 --> 00:41:19,239
Speaker 1: advice every day of the week, whether it's when do

698
00:41:19,280 --> 00:41:22,760
Speaker 1: you take social Security? All of those things, and look,

699
00:41:23,360 --> 00:41:30,240
Speaker 1: politics isn't have been infused into everything, including people's personal savings,

700
00:41:30,239 --> 00:41:33,200
Speaker 1: plans for retirement, in college.

701
00:41:32,800 --> 00:41:34,959
Speaker 2: Et cetera. So with that, let's sneak in a break.

702
00:41:34,960 --> 00:41:37,239
Speaker 1: We'll come back with my conversation and then I'll see

703
00:41:37,239 --> 00:41:42,799
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729
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Speaker 1: I was sixteen when my father passed away. We didn't

730
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731
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Speaker 1: My mother, single mother, now widow, myself sixteen, trying to

732
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733
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Speaker 1: And lo and behold, my dad had one life insurance

734
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735
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736
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752
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757
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Speaker 1: is something you should really think about it, especially if

758
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Speaker 1: you've got a growing family. All right, it's Top five time,

759
00:44:48,160 --> 00:44:52,440
Speaker 1: and I'm gonna preview. I've got a fun little segment.

760
00:44:53,400 --> 00:44:54,920
Speaker 1: As you know, I'm kind of a history buff, but

761
00:44:54,960 --> 00:44:59,120
Speaker 1: I'm also a campaign buff. And I've been sitting on

762
00:44:59,160 --> 00:45:01,000
Speaker 1: some material for a w while that I've been trying

763
00:45:01,000 --> 00:45:01,520
Speaker 1: to figure out.

764
00:45:01,600 --> 00:45:04,520
Speaker 2: Is it a book, is it a series? You know

765
00:45:04,520 --> 00:45:05,000
Speaker 2: what it is?

766
00:45:05,400 --> 00:45:07,480
Speaker 1: It is something I should be sharing with you. So

767
00:45:08,480 --> 00:45:10,080
Speaker 1: in a couple of weeks we're gonna we're gonna have

768
00:45:10,080 --> 00:45:14,360
Speaker 1: a fun, little year, year long countdown of some of

769
00:45:14,400 --> 00:45:17,840
Speaker 1: the greatest campaign stories.

770
00:45:17,400 --> 00:45:19,640
Speaker 2: That need to be told.

771
00:45:20,280 --> 00:45:23,720
Speaker 1: And it'll be about state wide races, not presidential races,

772
00:45:23,719 --> 00:45:27,279
Speaker 1: statewide races. But I think you will enjoy it. But

773
00:45:27,360 --> 00:45:34,040
Speaker 1: in the meantime, it is a top five list.

774
00:45:29,600 --> 00:45:33,440
Speaker 3: Top five, top fun.

775
00:45:36,760 --> 00:45:39,600
Speaker 1: Just to remind you, the last my last top five

776
00:45:39,600 --> 00:45:40,960
Speaker 1: in the Senate and the way I do it is

777
00:45:41,200 --> 00:45:45,239
Speaker 1: most likely to change parties. So number one on the

778
00:45:45,239 --> 00:45:47,359
Speaker 1: list last month and number one on the list this

779
00:45:47,400 --> 00:45:50,160
Speaker 1: month will be the same. It is North Carolina. Nothing

780
00:45:50,200 --> 00:45:52,960
Speaker 1: has changed in North Carolina other than it appears that

781
00:45:53,000 --> 00:45:56,960
Speaker 1: Cooper is getting a larger financial lead. I think it

782
00:45:57,040 --> 00:46:00,680
Speaker 1: is it is you can see that it when you

783
00:46:00,680 --> 00:46:02,920
Speaker 1: can avoid a primary. He's not having to deal with

784
00:46:02,960 --> 00:46:05,719
Speaker 1: any of the inter party you know fights that are

785
00:46:05,880 --> 00:46:07,280
Speaker 1: taking place these days.

786
00:46:08,480 --> 00:46:09,000
Speaker 2: It is.

787
00:46:10,480 --> 00:46:14,080
Speaker 1: It is the Democrat's seat to lose, and it would

788
00:46:14,120 --> 00:46:17,480
Speaker 1: be a monumental. Look, Michael Watley, I think is going

789
00:46:17,520 --> 00:46:20,560
Speaker 1: to raise a ton of money. It is a swing state.

790
00:46:24,440 --> 00:46:27,279
Speaker 1: So but and maybe he can make it a referendum

791
00:46:27,320 --> 00:46:30,279
Speaker 1: on Cooper, but he's not the sitting governor, right, it

792
00:46:30,280 --> 00:46:33,040
Speaker 1: has been two years. I think that's going to be harder.

793
00:46:33,920 --> 00:46:38,080
Speaker 1: And I think Cooper's scubernatorial terms are seen fairly positively.

794
00:46:38,080 --> 00:46:40,319
Speaker 1: I don't think there's a negative to it. He never

795
00:46:40,360 --> 00:46:44,280
Speaker 1: lost reelection. That matters as far as voters are concerned,

796
00:46:44,360 --> 00:46:46,399
Speaker 1: So I think they're going to I think that this

797
00:46:46,520 --> 00:46:51,160
Speaker 1: is if anything, I think this is you know, I'd

798
00:46:51,160 --> 00:46:53,200
Speaker 1: still keep it in toss up, but it's pretty close

799
00:46:53,239 --> 00:46:55,239
Speaker 1: to being more lean Democrat than it is toss up

800
00:46:55,280 --> 00:46:58,920
Speaker 1: if you were playing the the rating word game there, right,

801
00:46:59,000 --> 00:47:03,960
Speaker 1: lean versus I am only because Democrats haven't carried, have

802
00:47:04,480 --> 00:47:07,959
Speaker 1: struggled in federal races in North Carolina, and I haven't

803
00:47:07,960 --> 00:47:10,680
Speaker 1: won one since two thousand and eight. It's the only

804
00:47:10,719 --> 00:47:13,480
Speaker 1: reason I'd be a little hesitant. I like my old

805
00:47:13,520 --> 00:47:20,359
Speaker 1: friend Nathan Gonzales over at the Inside Elections. I think

806
00:47:20,360 --> 00:47:25,279
Speaker 1: he uses toss up tilt Democrat or toss up tilt Republican.

807
00:47:26,120 --> 00:47:28,680
Speaker 1: I would probably be slightly more comfortable with toss up

808
00:47:28,719 --> 00:47:30,839
Speaker 1: tilt Democrat than I would be lean Democrat. But we're

809
00:47:30,840 --> 00:47:35,920
Speaker 1: getting pretty close to lean Democrat there. Number two on

810
00:47:35,960 --> 00:47:38,439
Speaker 1: the list is I think still main, and I think

811
00:47:38,440 --> 00:47:41,240
Speaker 1: it's because of Susan Collins is now.

812
00:47:42,840 --> 00:47:43,959
Speaker 2: Getting into.

813
00:47:45,440 --> 00:47:47,800
Speaker 1: The Mitch McConnell territory, where you have the basis of

814
00:47:47,840 --> 00:47:51,200
Speaker 1: both parties being unhappy with you, and I think that's

815
00:47:51,239 --> 00:47:54,680
Speaker 1: a tough place to be. This is the worst poll

816
00:47:54,760 --> 00:47:57,520
Speaker 1: numbers she's ever had facing a reelection, but look, she's

817
00:47:57,680 --> 00:48:01,160
Speaker 1: running the fact that she's in as a relief. I

818
00:48:01,200 --> 00:48:03,359
Speaker 1: think there was a little bit of nervousness among Senate

819
00:48:03,440 --> 00:48:08,720
Speaker 1: Republicans that she might that she might call it a career.

820
00:48:10,560 --> 00:48:12,920
Speaker 1: But I think she's been convinced that if Graham Plattner

821
00:48:12,960 --> 00:48:15,320
Speaker 1: comes out of the primary, that she can somehow beat Platner.

822
00:48:16,840 --> 00:48:21,799
Speaker 1: I think she fears Mills more than Platner. Boy, you know,

823
00:48:21,880 --> 00:48:25,360
Speaker 1: I am I'm kind of agnostic on this. I know

824
00:48:25,440 --> 00:48:30,520
Speaker 1: Platner has this personal baggage and there's some authenticity issues

825
00:48:30,560 --> 00:48:33,760
Speaker 1: that may come, whether it's this tattoo story in various ways.

826
00:48:35,239 --> 00:48:38,719
Speaker 1: But he may fit the time right, he may fit

827
00:48:38,800 --> 00:48:39,360
Speaker 1: the moment.

828
00:48:40,719 --> 00:48:41,560
Speaker 2: But I'll tell you this.

829
00:48:41,640 --> 00:48:46,440
Speaker 1: I thought the governor Mills campaign put out an opening

830
00:48:46,480 --> 00:48:51,760
Speaker 1: ad on Collins that was sort of mocking her regular

831
00:48:51,880 --> 00:48:54,120
Speaker 1: use of the word concerned when it comes to Donald

832
00:48:54,160 --> 00:49:00,200
Speaker 1: Trump decisions, if you will, and it was always concerned. Ever,

833
00:49:00,280 --> 00:49:02,879
Speaker 1: courageous was an interesting I think that was the punchline.

834
00:49:03,000 --> 00:49:06,680
Speaker 1: I thought it was really well done. And the other

835
00:49:06,719 --> 00:49:09,560
Speaker 1: thing it did is it highlighted how long she'd been

836
00:49:09,560 --> 00:49:12,279
Speaker 1: in Washington, because you saw Susan Collins going all the

837
00:49:12,320 --> 00:49:14,120
Speaker 1: way back to the mid nineties all the way through.

838
00:49:14,600 --> 00:49:16,680
Speaker 2: So it it is.

839
00:49:18,000 --> 00:49:20,720
Speaker 1: I mean, I think she's technically younger than Janet Mills,

840
00:49:20,719 --> 00:49:23,400
Speaker 1: So I think that It's not the age issue.

841
00:49:23,080 --> 00:49:24,680
Speaker 2: But it's how long have you been in Washington?

842
00:49:25,480 --> 00:49:27,800
Speaker 1: I think is going to be more of a problem

843
00:49:27,880 --> 00:49:33,120
Speaker 1: than how old you are. I think, but obviously, look

844
00:49:33,160 --> 00:49:38,000
Speaker 1: that's a but her being in Washington too long, I

845
00:49:38,000 --> 00:49:40,480
Speaker 1: don't care what party you're in. I think that's going

846
00:49:40,600 --> 00:49:42,640
Speaker 1: to be more of a net negative than a net positive.

847
00:49:42,680 --> 00:49:46,160
Speaker 1: I mean, I saw some internal polling that I got

848
00:49:46,200 --> 00:49:48,960
Speaker 1: off the record about one incumbent, and this is somebody

849
00:49:48,960 --> 00:49:52,719
Speaker 1: who's fairly popular and is it time for someone new?

850
00:49:52,880 --> 00:49:55,800
Speaker 1: Was ahead of re electing incumbent by a good dub

851
00:49:55,880 --> 00:49:58,120
Speaker 1: by fifteen points. And this is an incumbent who's fairly

852
00:49:58,120 --> 00:50:01,840
Speaker 1: heavily favored at the moment. The natural inclination of this

853
00:50:01,920 --> 00:50:05,720
Speaker 1: electorate is for new people. Whether you're in a small

854
00:50:05,760 --> 00:50:08,839
Speaker 1: rural state or a big city, it is it is

855
00:50:09,200 --> 00:50:12,799
Speaker 1: nobody thinks the current leadership class deserves reelection, whatever that

856
00:50:12,840 --> 00:50:16,600
Speaker 1: means to them. And so even though your own congressmen

857
00:50:16,760 --> 00:50:18,840
Speaker 1: or woman is somebody that you may end up supporting,

858
00:50:19,680 --> 00:50:23,040
Speaker 1: the general sentiment is they're looking right, the change candidate

859
00:50:23,120 --> 00:50:24,280
Speaker 1: is going to get the second.

860
00:50:24,320 --> 00:50:24,560
Speaker 2: Look.

861
00:50:24,880 --> 00:50:26,560
Speaker 1: You may end up with the acumbent, but you're you're

862
00:50:26,600 --> 00:50:28,200
Speaker 1: going to take a look at the change candidate. So

863
00:50:28,280 --> 00:50:30,960
Speaker 1: I do think it's that type of atmosphere. So I'm

864
00:50:30,960 --> 00:50:36,120
Speaker 1: going to keep Maine in the second slot, and I

865
00:50:36,120 --> 00:50:37,920
Speaker 1: think you still have to in the third slot. Is

866
00:50:37,960 --> 00:50:42,080
Speaker 1: still Michigan, Donald Trump, It was third last one. I

867
00:50:42,280 --> 00:50:44,880
Speaker 1: don't worry. I'm shaking things up here in a second.

868
00:50:44,880 --> 00:50:48,120
Speaker 1: But Michigan is still in the third slot. This is

869
00:50:48,400 --> 00:50:51,600
Speaker 1: a Democratic seat that they have to hold. They can't

870
00:50:51,600 --> 00:50:55,239
Speaker 1: afford to lose anyone. Democrats need four to a net

871
00:50:55,280 --> 00:50:59,600
Speaker 1: gain of four. Now is it three? And they maybe

872
00:50:59,600 --> 00:51:02,320
Speaker 1: can get somebody who's coxing with the Republicans to flip

873
00:51:02,360 --> 00:51:05,200
Speaker 1: to the Democrats. That's a possibility. I'll get to that

874
00:51:05,239 --> 00:51:09,399
Speaker 1: in a minute. But they need four and they can't

875
00:51:09,400 --> 00:51:12,680
Speaker 1: afford to lose any and the two vulnerable. I would

876
00:51:12,760 --> 00:51:17,720
Speaker 1: argue that there are four competitive Democratic held seats. Only

877
00:51:17,760 --> 00:51:20,000
Speaker 1: one is making my top five right now, because I

878
00:51:20,040 --> 00:51:23,719
Speaker 1: think generally the atmosphere is better for Democrats than Republicans.

879
00:51:24,080 --> 00:51:28,279
Speaker 1: But the four Democratic held seats that are have some

880
00:51:28,440 --> 00:51:32,960
Speaker 1: level of vulnerability to them are Michigan, Georgia, New Hampshire,

881
00:51:33,400 --> 00:51:38,720
Speaker 1: and Minnesota. Now three of the four are retirees, right

882
00:51:39,080 --> 00:51:41,279
Speaker 1: it's an open seat of Michigan, open seat of Minnesota,

883
00:51:42,080 --> 00:51:45,719
Speaker 1: open seat in New Hampshire. The fourth is osoff and

884
00:51:45,800 --> 00:51:50,319
Speaker 1: Georgia look asoff. When I started doing these top five

885
00:51:50,320 --> 00:51:52,040
Speaker 1: lists a few months ago, he was on this list,

886
00:51:52,040 --> 00:51:54,640
Speaker 1: and he's no longer on it. I think you've seen

887
00:51:55,880 --> 00:51:58,480
Speaker 1: they haven't been able that there's no superstar candidate among

888
00:51:58,560 --> 00:52:03,880
Speaker 1: the Republicans. He is just a monster fundraiser and frankly

889
00:52:04,000 --> 00:52:09,880
Speaker 1: is just a really underrated campaigner. I think I've underestimated him.

890
00:52:09,200 --> 00:52:12,880
Speaker 1: I have thought that he's benefited from sharing a ballot

891
00:52:12,920 --> 00:52:16,080
Speaker 1: with Warnock. So look, he's on there this time without him.

892
00:52:16,880 --> 00:52:18,239
Speaker 2: But so far, I.

893
00:52:18,160 --> 00:52:21,400
Speaker 1: Think he's you know, he's he looks a lot stronger

894
00:52:21,440 --> 00:52:23,239
Speaker 1: now than I think a lot of a lot of

895
00:52:23,320 --> 00:52:26,840
Speaker 1: Democrats or Republican strategists expected at this point in the cycle.

896
00:52:27,880 --> 00:52:30,960
Speaker 1: But Michigan, of all of the four open seats, the

897
00:52:31,000 --> 00:52:32,799
Speaker 1: one that I think is the most vulnerable at the

898
00:52:32,800 --> 00:52:38,080
Speaker 1: moment is Michigan because of the very potentially divisive Democratic primary.

899
00:52:38,440 --> 00:52:41,680
Speaker 1: To a lesser extent, that's a phenomenon also in Minnesota,

900
00:52:42,160 --> 00:52:46,520
Speaker 1: you have sort of a a less high profile version

901
00:52:46,560 --> 00:52:49,239
Speaker 1: of what you're seeing in Minnesota than what you're seeing

902
00:52:49,280 --> 00:52:51,520
Speaker 1: in Michigan where you sort of have this, you know,

903
00:52:51,640 --> 00:52:54,680
Speaker 1: sort of the insider candidate Hailey Stevens, the sort of

904
00:52:54,719 --> 00:52:57,960
Speaker 1: the Michigan outsider candidate Molly McMorrow, and then the progressive

905
00:52:57,960 --> 00:53:01,800
Speaker 1: outsider and I'll do else. I Yet that is still

906
00:53:02,239 --> 00:53:07,080
Speaker 1: I think that potential where the Democratic nominee is a

907
00:53:07,120 --> 00:53:11,359
Speaker 1: divisive figure inside his own her party is what any

908
00:53:11,400 --> 00:53:13,800
Speaker 1: of Mike Rogers on the other side, who's I think

909
00:53:14,520 --> 00:53:17,120
Speaker 1: the least maga of a Republican that they could get

910
00:53:17,160 --> 00:53:21,759
Speaker 1: Trump to support, is potentially a fairly strong nominee. Now,

911
00:53:22,040 --> 00:53:25,160
Speaker 1: Trump has really screwed up things for Michigan Republicans like

912
00:53:26,200 --> 00:53:31,040
Speaker 1: he's trying to. I mean, the antagonism toward Canada doesn't

913
00:53:31,040 --> 00:53:34,560
Speaker 1: play well in Michigan. He's messed with this new bridge

914
00:53:34,560 --> 00:53:37,920
Speaker 1: that was meant to alleviate congestion on the one Bridge

915
00:53:37,920 --> 00:53:41,800
Speaker 1: to Windsor. But because the gentleman who sort of controls

916
00:53:41,840 --> 00:53:44,520
Speaker 1: the fees off of the one Windsor Bridge is going

917
00:53:44,600 --> 00:53:46,880
Speaker 1: to see some of his income hit because of the

918
00:53:46,920 --> 00:53:48,920
Speaker 1: opening of this new bridge, which was jointly paid for

919
00:53:49,000 --> 00:53:54,280
Speaker 1: by Canada and Michigan. The US government essentially a donation

920
00:53:54,600 --> 00:53:57,120
Speaker 1: to Donald Trump. Within twenty four hours got Donald Trump

921
00:53:57,120 --> 00:54:00,600
Speaker 1: to rail against this new bridge. None of that is

922
00:54:00,600 --> 00:54:02,279
Speaker 1: good for Mike Rogers. None of that is good, and

923
00:54:02,440 --> 00:54:05,359
Speaker 1: the business community of Michigan doesn't like it. It's a

924
00:54:05,440 --> 00:54:09,400
Speaker 1: really awkward situation that the President has set up for Rogers.

925
00:54:09,920 --> 00:54:12,400
Speaker 1: Rogers has to he can't he can't afford to be

926
00:54:12,440 --> 00:54:16,080
Speaker 1: in Trump's wrong side. He decided, well, he thinks he

927
00:54:16,120 --> 00:54:19,279
Speaker 1: can't afford. You know, at some point he's going to

928
00:54:19,320 --> 00:54:20,600
Speaker 1: have to break from him, but he's going to wait

929
00:54:20,600 --> 00:54:25,520
Speaker 1: till after after to make sure there's no last minute

930
00:54:25,680 --> 00:54:27,600
Speaker 1: primary challenger that shows up, right.

931
00:54:29,120 --> 00:54:30,319
Speaker 2: But I do think that that.

932
00:54:30,320 --> 00:54:35,319
Speaker 1: Trump's complicated The entire tariff regime is complicated life, I

933
00:54:35,360 --> 00:54:39,960
Speaker 1: think for every Midwestern senator in general, particularly in the

934
00:54:40,000 --> 00:54:44,160
Speaker 1: farm states. But I think it's also done. May hurt

935
00:54:44,280 --> 00:54:46,440
Speaker 1: Rogers in the long run and may give whoever the

936
00:54:46,480 --> 00:54:48,160
Speaker 1: Democratic now me is. But for now I have to

937
00:54:48,200 --> 00:54:50,080
Speaker 1: put this race. You know this would I have to

938
00:54:50,120 --> 00:54:53,200
Speaker 1: have five Republican seats in here if it wasn't for

939
00:54:53,239 --> 00:54:57,440
Speaker 1: the potential divisiveness of this Democratic primary. So number four

940
00:54:57,480 --> 00:55:00,680
Speaker 1: on the list right now is Alaska. Last month I

941
00:55:00,680 --> 00:55:04,960
Speaker 1: had Ohio there, and I'm dropping. I think Alaska you

942
00:55:05,040 --> 00:55:08,040
Speaker 1: saw that Chuck Schumer has spent a ton of money

943
00:55:08,200 --> 00:55:11,880
Speaker 1: to help Mary Patello sort of put together a field program,

944
00:55:12,040 --> 00:55:14,760
Speaker 1: sort of to try to rival the Lisa Murkowski field program,

945
00:55:14,760 --> 00:55:18,719
Speaker 1: which is second to none in Alaska politics. Look, I

946
00:55:18,719 --> 00:55:22,959
Speaker 1: think Dan Sullivan is is a tough person to turn

947
00:55:22,960 --> 00:55:28,440
Speaker 1: into a Trumpian figure. But I do think that, you know,

948
00:55:28,680 --> 00:55:33,080
Speaker 1: Mary Patello was certainly as one one state wide election

949
00:55:33,160 --> 00:55:35,600
Speaker 1: as then at large house member, and certainly has a

950
00:55:35,600 --> 00:55:39,880
Speaker 1: pretty good as a pretty good profile in the state.

951
00:55:42,440 --> 00:55:44,480
Speaker 1: But I think this is you know, pretty tough. But

952
00:55:45,920 --> 00:55:50,359
Speaker 1: here's the wild card, and it's Lisa Rakowski. I'm very

953
00:55:50,440 --> 00:55:54,360
Speaker 1: curious what she does in this race. Remember she endorsed

954
00:55:54,360 --> 00:55:58,319
Speaker 1: Mary Patello when she ran for the House. I think

955
00:55:58,360 --> 00:56:01,240
Speaker 1: she has a good relationship with the inside all everything.

956
00:56:01,239 --> 00:56:01,800
Speaker 2: I understand.

957
00:56:01,840 --> 00:56:05,239
Speaker 1: I've got some family and Anchorage, so that's sort of

958
00:56:05,280 --> 00:56:09,600
Speaker 1: pretty plugged into Alaska politics. And you know, there's I

959
00:56:09,640 --> 00:56:13,120
Speaker 1: don't think Markowski and Sullivan. I don't think the two

960
00:56:13,120 --> 00:56:15,520
Speaker 1: of them. I think they get along pretty well. I

961
00:56:15,560 --> 00:56:18,279
Speaker 1: think they see think for the you know, I think

962
00:56:18,280 --> 00:56:22,480
Speaker 1: they both sort of see themselves as Alaskans before they're partisans. Right,

963
00:56:24,760 --> 00:56:29,600
Speaker 1: So I you know, but I do know she's skeptical

964
00:56:29,680 --> 00:56:33,040
Speaker 1: of giving Trump too much power. And that's what's going

965
00:56:33,080 --> 00:56:37,839
Speaker 1: to be interesting here. But I talked about I here's

966
00:56:37,840 --> 00:56:43,200
Speaker 1: something else to ponder. If Paltello wins that senen see

967
00:56:43,960 --> 00:56:46,520
Speaker 1: and let's say Democrats net three. Let's say they pick

968
00:56:46,600 --> 00:56:49,640
Speaker 1: up North Carolina, Maine, in Alaska, but they come up

969
00:56:49,640 --> 00:56:52,719
Speaker 1: short in Ohio, they come up short in Iowa, come

970
00:56:52,760 --> 00:56:56,480
Speaker 1: up short in Texas, so they've netted three. It's fifty

971
00:56:56,480 --> 00:57:01,840
Speaker 1: to fifty. Jada Vance breaks the tie unless one of

972
00:57:01,840 --> 00:57:06,560
Speaker 1: the senators coxing with the Republicans decides to instead caucause

973
00:57:06,600 --> 00:57:13,080
Speaker 1: with the Democrats. Lisa Murkowski's likely her term ends in

974
00:57:13,080 --> 00:57:15,400
Speaker 1: twenty twenty eight. It's up in her seats up in

975
00:57:15,400 --> 00:57:18,240
Speaker 1: twenty twenty eight. This could be her last two years

976
00:57:18,240 --> 00:57:18,760
Speaker 1: of Congress.

977
00:57:23,080 --> 00:57:23,400
Speaker 2: Does she.

978
00:57:25,080 --> 00:57:29,680
Speaker 1: She has been on the record sort of set, you

979
00:57:29,720 --> 00:57:33,280
Speaker 1: know not. She didn't come across as a no on

980
00:57:33,320 --> 00:57:37,520
Speaker 1: this question. She was evasive but didn't which was never definitive,

981
00:57:37,640 --> 00:57:46,120
Speaker 1: which is all that matters. Democrats win the three seats,

982
00:57:46,120 --> 00:57:48,520
Speaker 1: and one of the three is Alaska. I could easily

983
00:57:48,520 --> 00:57:52,320
Speaker 1: see Lisa Murkowski going, look my state, I said, you know,

984
00:57:52,400 --> 00:57:55,120
Speaker 1: I can you know my state has decided they want

985
00:57:55,160 --> 00:57:58,600
Speaker 1: a Democratic Senate this cycle, So for now I'm going

986
00:57:58,640 --> 00:58:03,680
Speaker 1: to organize with them. I don't think it's out of

987
00:58:03,680 --> 00:58:07,000
Speaker 1: the realm of possibility. So Alaska's fourth on the list,

988
00:58:07,400 --> 00:58:12,400
Speaker 1: and in number five I'm going to put Texas. I

989
00:58:12,480 --> 00:58:15,440
Speaker 1: think we have learned a couple of things. First of all,

990
00:58:17,000 --> 00:58:19,360
Speaker 1: the fact that so much money is poured into this race,

991
00:58:19,520 --> 00:58:22,360
Speaker 1: that it is an enormous amount of money is being spent.

992
00:58:23,120 --> 00:58:25,320
Speaker 1: The two biggest spenders right now are trailing in the

993
00:58:25,360 --> 00:58:28,880
Speaker 1: polls in each side. Corning and his allies trailing in

994
00:58:28,920 --> 00:58:32,560
Speaker 1: the polls, tall Rico and his allies trailing in the polls.

995
00:58:35,280 --> 00:58:37,640
Speaker 1: I think the open court look it is, it's going

996
00:58:37,720 --> 00:58:41,240
Speaker 1: to be a runoff on the Republican side, for sure.

997
00:58:42,520 --> 00:58:44,680
Speaker 1: There is a third cannon on the ballot among Democrats.

998
00:58:44,720 --> 00:58:46,880
Speaker 1: It's a guy, a lesser known candid, not a lot

999
00:58:46,920 --> 00:58:50,040
Speaker 1: of money. But if we're looking at it, all the

1000
00:58:50,040 --> 00:58:52,680
Speaker 1: polling is indicated that that Tallarico Crockett's going to be

1001
00:58:52,760 --> 00:58:57,960
Speaker 1: very close forty nine eight out of the question. And

1002
00:58:58,000 --> 00:59:01,800
Speaker 1: then we go to another runoff. And there's all sorts

1003
00:59:01,840 --> 00:59:07,360
Speaker 1: of game theory here that I've heard from various Texas watchers.

1004
00:59:08,640 --> 00:59:15,040
Speaker 1: So Crockett wins the primary bad news for corn right

1005
00:59:15,040 --> 00:59:19,040
Speaker 1: if it's corn and Paxton, because the assumption among Republicans

1006
00:59:19,120 --> 00:59:27,240
Speaker 1: is anybody can beat Crockett tall Rico wins. Do Senate

1007
00:59:27,280 --> 00:59:32,520
Speaker 1: Republicans panic beg Trump to endorse Cornin, and maybe Trump

1008
00:59:32,560 --> 00:59:36,240
Speaker 1: does it because he wants to save a senden See,

1009
00:59:38,640 --> 00:59:41,880
Speaker 1: or they both go to runoffs and everybody stays out,

1010
00:59:43,120 --> 00:59:46,720
Speaker 1: and that becomes just a we get basically two and

1011
00:59:46,720 --> 00:59:49,120
Speaker 1: a half more months of more cowboll out of Texas.

1012
00:59:50,000 --> 00:59:52,720
Speaker 1: The point is is that here's what we do know.

1013
00:59:53,080 --> 00:59:57,680
Speaker 1: Texas is not a deep red state right now. It

1014
00:59:57,720 --> 01:00:00,840
Speaker 1: may end up going back to more rhetoric version of itself,

1015
01:00:01,400 --> 01:00:03,160
Speaker 1: but in the moment, it's not a very red state.

1016
01:00:04,400 --> 01:00:10,040
Speaker 1: Right There's you know, look, protectionist policies aren't good. Isn't

1017
01:00:10,080 --> 01:00:13,240
Speaker 1: good for Texas business. So tariffs have not been good

1018
01:00:13,240 --> 01:00:16,800
Speaker 1: for Texas. This this this border issue actually hasn't been

1019
01:00:16,800 --> 01:00:23,800
Speaker 1: great for the Texas economy. You've got a divided Republican

1020
01:00:23,840 --> 01:00:26,880
Speaker 1: party over this education plan by the governor and the

1021
01:00:26,960 --> 01:00:31,640
Speaker 1: voucherization programs which are not this is not universally popular,

1022
01:00:32,160 --> 01:00:35,080
Speaker 1: This is very it's not even universally popular among Republicans,

1023
01:00:34,880 --> 01:00:39,320
Speaker 1: it's got its detractors on the right because school choice

1024
01:00:39,320 --> 01:00:45,120
Speaker 1: in rural America is tough to actually make happen. We'd

1025
01:00:45,160 --> 01:00:47,520
Speaker 1: love to have school choice, where do you got to

1026
01:00:47,560 --> 01:00:51,280
Speaker 1: go fifty miles? And then the alternative is just homeschooling.

1027
01:00:51,400 --> 01:00:53,280
Speaker 1: Some parents would love to do that, not all parents can.

1028
01:00:55,600 --> 01:00:57,000
Speaker 1: So you've got that issue sitting.

1029
01:00:56,800 --> 01:00:57,720
Speaker 2: Over the head.

1030
01:00:58,400 --> 01:01:02,280
Speaker 1: Then you've got the character issues of Ken Paxton and

1031
01:01:02,320 --> 01:01:05,640
Speaker 1: one of the things that's been well, Trump maybe mister

1032
01:01:05,680 --> 01:01:08,040
Speaker 1: Teflon when it comes to Epstein and Trump maybe mister

1033
01:01:08,040 --> 01:01:11,080
Speaker 1: Teflon when it comes to this other stuff. Voters have

1034
01:01:11,120 --> 01:01:13,920
Speaker 1: been harder on anybody else that has tried to come

1035
01:01:13,960 --> 01:01:19,280
Speaker 1: across as Teflon Don. So I'm skeptical that somehow Texas

1036
01:01:19,360 --> 01:01:21,680
Speaker 1: voters are going to hold their nose on the morals

1037
01:01:21,680 --> 01:01:23,760
Speaker 1: and ethics stuff when it comes to Backson. Maybe I'm wrong,

1038
01:01:25,440 --> 01:01:28,560
Speaker 1: and boy Paxton Paxston is going to hope that he's

1039
01:01:28,560 --> 01:01:32,200
Speaker 1: got the Teflon that Don has, that he wears the

1040
01:01:32,240 --> 01:01:36,440
Speaker 1: Teflon Don coding. We'll see, but I'm putting Texas in

1041
01:01:36,440 --> 01:01:39,400
Speaker 1: that fifth slot. But look on my watch list on here,

1042
01:01:39,440 --> 01:01:42,880
Speaker 1: Look I was competitive. It's interesting they Nathan Sage got

1043
01:01:42,880 --> 01:01:45,600
Speaker 1: out so the Democratic primary. What that really means is

1044
01:01:45,600 --> 01:01:47,800
Speaker 1: that it guarantees that their Democrats don't have to go

1045
01:01:47,800 --> 01:01:52,120
Speaker 1: to their weird, funky convention clause. If no candidate gets

1046
01:01:52,120 --> 01:01:55,200
Speaker 1: more than you know, gets thirty five percent in a eyeway,

1047
01:01:55,200 --> 01:02:00,440
Speaker 1: they go to some convention, which then turns into a problem.

1048
01:02:00,720 --> 01:02:02,800
Speaker 1: The unique thing about what I saw in Iowa recently

1049
01:02:02,840 --> 01:02:06,080
Speaker 1: is the Republicans put out a poll of the Democratic

1050
01:02:06,120 --> 01:02:10,720
Speaker 1: primary indicating that Schumer's favorite candidate was trailing badly. It

1051
01:02:10,800 --> 01:02:16,320
Speaker 1: was trailing Zach Wall's badly, Josh Turk. I'm trying to

1052
01:02:16,320 --> 01:02:19,520
Speaker 1: figure out why they released it. They want to put

1053
01:02:19,640 --> 01:02:24,200
Speaker 1: some pressure on They're hoping to create some tension. Hasn't

1054
01:02:24,280 --> 01:02:28,280
Speaker 1: really been an animated primary on that side of the aisle,

1055
01:02:28,360 --> 01:02:30,760
Speaker 1: so we'll see. But I found it interesting that the

1056
01:02:30,800 --> 01:02:35,400
Speaker 1: Republicans made it clear that they wanted, Hey, look, we

1057
01:02:35,480 --> 01:02:38,280
Speaker 1: think Zach Walls is running away with this, and I

1058
01:02:38,280 --> 01:02:41,520
Speaker 1: think in their mind they do. Again, I don't quite

1059
01:02:41,600 --> 01:02:44,040
Speaker 1: get it. I think they want to run against Walls,

1060
01:02:44,120 --> 01:02:49,080
Speaker 1: not against Turk, who's got a profile, you know, a paralympian,

1061
01:02:49,360 --> 01:02:52,400
Speaker 1: and he's got sort of a patriotic profile from a

1062
01:02:52,440 --> 01:02:56,959
Speaker 1: redder part of the state. Anyway, I'm trying to figure

1063
01:02:56,960 --> 01:03:00,080
Speaker 1: out the three dimensional chess that that those guys I

1064
01:03:00,280 --> 01:03:03,840
Speaker 1: want to be playing over there, and then keep an

1065
01:03:03,840 --> 01:03:08,520
Speaker 1: eye on South Dakota. You know, the Christy Nome exit

1066
01:03:08,640 --> 01:03:11,280
Speaker 1: ramp is being built. The question is what's the exit

1067
01:03:11,360 --> 01:03:14,680
Speaker 1: ramp look like? Is it another job in the administration?

1068
01:03:15,720 --> 01:03:18,760
Speaker 1: Does she get you know, is it that she run

1069
01:03:18,840 --> 01:03:23,360
Speaker 1: primaries Mike Rounds for US Senate. If she primaries Mike

1070
01:03:23,440 --> 01:03:28,760
Speaker 1: Rounds for US Senate, you could have a mini Texas situation. Right,

1071
01:03:28,800 --> 01:03:31,040
Speaker 1: Mike Rowns is a better general election candidate than he

1072
01:03:31,040 --> 01:03:33,560
Speaker 1: would be a primary Republican primary candidate. Mike Grounds is

1073
01:03:33,640 --> 01:03:38,439
Speaker 1: not the most pro MAGA guy. Christy Nome obviously made

1074
01:03:38,480 --> 01:03:43,760
Speaker 1: a decision to go down the Maga road. She obviously

1075
01:03:43,760 --> 01:03:46,840
Speaker 1: wouldn't jump in if Trump wouldn't endorse her. Does he?

1076
01:03:46,920 --> 01:03:49,960
Speaker 1: Does Trump want to cross John Thune here, who he

1077
01:03:50,040 --> 01:03:57,560
Speaker 1: is a pretty decent working relationship. It's it's a wildcard

1078
01:03:57,600 --> 01:04:02,720
Speaker 1: that isn't crazy. Sure numbers among the Republican base in

1079
01:04:02,800 --> 01:04:07,000
Speaker 1: South Dakota are better than Rounds's numbers, even though she

1080
01:04:07,200 --> 01:04:10,360
Speaker 1: might be a weaker candidate. If she got in as

1081
01:04:10,520 --> 01:04:16,840
Speaker 1: the nominee, and it certainly would expose a lot of

1082
01:04:16,880 --> 01:04:20,360
Speaker 1: wounds inside the Republican Party. And I'm certainly how many

1083
01:04:20,400 --> 01:04:23,600
Speaker 1: of these divisive primaries do they want. Then again, if

1084
01:04:23,640 --> 01:04:29,680
Speaker 1: Trump wants a Republican Party in his image, Mike Grounds isn't.

1085
01:04:29,440 --> 01:04:33,000
Speaker 2: Part of that image. So I will tell you this.

1086
01:04:33,120 --> 01:04:36,880
Speaker 1: I've had Brian Beangs, who is the independent candidate running

1087
01:04:36,920 --> 01:04:39,880
Speaker 1: in that race, because Democrats are unlikely to nominate anybody in.

1088
01:04:39,880 --> 01:04:43,200
Speaker 1: Bangs is sort of from the Dan Osborne school of running,

1089
01:04:43,240 --> 01:04:45,960
Speaker 1: you know, sort of being an opposition but not comfortable

1090
01:04:45,960 --> 01:04:50,200
Speaker 1: associating with either of the major parties. I think you

1091
01:04:50,240 --> 01:04:53,160
Speaker 1: have to start taking a look at that candidacy. If

1092
01:04:53,200 --> 01:04:56,240
Speaker 1: no one gets into this race, I think it's a

1093
01:04:56,280 --> 01:04:59,560
Speaker 1: semi long shot. But there's no doubt that an exit

1094
01:04:59,640 --> 01:05:02,040
Speaker 1: ramp is being constructed in the West wing for Christinoman

1095
01:05:02,080 --> 01:05:05,440
Speaker 1: Corey Lewandowski. The question is whether a there is an

1096
01:05:05,440 --> 01:05:08,919
Speaker 1: exit ramp there they would take willingly, and b whether

1097
01:05:09,000 --> 01:05:14,160
Speaker 1: the exit ramp is indeed South Dakota Senate. But just

1098
01:05:14,200 --> 01:05:15,640
Speaker 1: something to keep an eye on. And then again I

1099
01:05:15,680 --> 01:05:18,720
Speaker 1: go back to the other race. I want to mention

1100
01:05:19,200 --> 01:05:22,400
Speaker 1: just don't sleep on Minnesota. I think Michelle Tafoya is

1101
01:05:22,400 --> 01:05:26,080
Speaker 1: a really strong recruit. She's consolidating support quickly, she's sort

1102
01:05:26,080 --> 01:05:29,720
Speaker 1: of getting She's gotten much further ahead in the primary

1103
01:05:29,720 --> 01:05:33,000
Speaker 1: than I expect her to get pretty quickly, and you

1104
01:05:33,040 --> 01:05:36,320
Speaker 1: could have a divisive primary ala Michigan between Angie Craig

1105
01:05:36,360 --> 01:05:41,400
Speaker 1: and Peggy Flanagan, the lieutenant governor. She's pretty progressive. Angie

1106
01:05:41,440 --> 01:05:45,760
Speaker 1: Craig is more sort of in the Alissa Slotkin Abigail

1107
01:05:45,760 --> 01:05:53,320
Speaker 1: Spamberger school of Democratic members of Congress. But in Minnesota

1108
01:05:53,400 --> 01:05:57,600
Speaker 1: that might not be you know, she might not might

1109
01:05:57,640 --> 01:06:00,800
Speaker 1: not work in a Democratic primary. We'll see then again,

1110
01:06:00,840 --> 01:06:05,240
Speaker 1: Amy Klobashar being the likely Democratic nominee for governor, I

1111
01:06:05,400 --> 01:06:07,400
Speaker 1: think Angie Craig's a little bit more of an Amy

1112
01:06:07,440 --> 01:06:12,160
Speaker 1: Klobeeshar Democrat than the lieutenant governor is. But keep an

1113
01:06:12,200 --> 01:06:15,520
Speaker 1: eye on that primary. If it gets messy, if it

1114
01:06:15,560 --> 01:06:18,080
Speaker 1: gets gaza, if you get gazed up a little bit,

1115
01:06:18,120 --> 01:06:20,280
Speaker 1: and maybe it does, maybe it doesn't. Right, we know

1116
01:06:20,360 --> 01:06:25,120
Speaker 1: Michigan's gonna does that, does that divide the party a

1117
01:06:25,120 --> 01:06:26,960
Speaker 1: little bit and does it end up helping Tafoya?

1118
01:06:27,080 --> 01:06:27,720
Speaker 2: I think if this.

1119
01:06:27,720 --> 01:06:30,760
Speaker 1: Were not I think Tafoya would be a stronger candidate

1120
01:06:30,760 --> 01:06:33,040
Speaker 1: for Senati if Donald Trump weren't president at the moment,

1121
01:06:33,600 --> 01:06:37,680
Speaker 1: like I think, as an outsider, maybe even as a challenger.

1122
01:06:37,720 --> 01:06:40,240
Speaker 1: And so, you know, this could be the first of

1123
01:06:40,280 --> 01:06:44,760
Speaker 1: two campaigns. Remember, if Clobashar wins the gubernatorial race, they'll

1124
01:06:44,800 --> 01:06:47,040
Speaker 1: be immediately another seat up in twenty eight because there'll

1125
01:06:47,080 --> 01:06:49,520
Speaker 1: be a special election to fill out that, to fill

1126
01:06:49,560 --> 01:06:54,960
Speaker 1: out Cloba Shar's term. So, you know, Tafoya against an

1127
01:06:54,960 --> 01:07:00,240
Speaker 1: appointed senator in twenty eight if she, you know, it

1128
01:07:00,320 --> 01:07:03,080
Speaker 1: runs a respectable race that you know does like you

1129
01:07:03,120 --> 01:07:05,640
Speaker 1: know what we're watching potentially in Michigan with Mike Rogers.

1130
01:07:05,720 --> 01:07:08,120
Speaker 1: It's on the ballot last time, lost in a competitive race.

1131
01:07:08,120 --> 01:07:12,320
Speaker 1: Now he's there again this time. So Minnesota's on that

1132
01:07:12,400 --> 01:07:15,480
Speaker 1: watch list. I think the overall national environment makes it

1133
01:07:15,480 --> 01:07:18,600
Speaker 1: an uphill battle for Tafoya, makes it uphill battle against

1134
01:07:18,600 --> 01:07:20,520
Speaker 1: the wind. It was already an uphill battle. Now she's

1135
01:07:20,560 --> 01:07:26,200
Speaker 1: got wind in her face, the political wind. But it's possible.

1136
01:07:26,200 --> 01:07:29,360
Speaker 1: This is the you know that this is just year

1137
01:07:29,400 --> 01:07:31,720
Speaker 1: one of a four year of basically a three year

1138
01:07:31,800 --> 01:07:34,840
Speaker 1: campaign to eventually get to the US Senate in twenty

1139
01:07:34,920 --> 01:07:37,400
Speaker 1: twenty eight. So there you go. There's my top five.

1140
01:07:37,480 --> 01:07:39,800
Speaker 1: Let me recount it. Number one, North Carolina, number two,

1141
01:07:39,840 --> 01:07:44,120
Speaker 1: Main number three, Michigan number four, Alaska number five, Texas.

1142
01:07:43,960 --> 01:07:46,320
Speaker 2: Most likely to flip. And I will just tell you this.

1143
01:07:47,600 --> 01:07:50,360
Speaker 1: I think we all know our two political parties, Paxton

1144
01:07:50,440 --> 01:07:56,760
Speaker 1: versus Crockett the ultimate sort of matchup where the party

1145
01:07:56,840 --> 01:08:01,040
Speaker 1: elites didn't want either nominee. I think for where our

1146
01:08:01,040 --> 01:08:05,480
Speaker 1: politics are headed, that might be the more intriguing matchup.

1147
01:08:05,960 --> 01:08:11,160
Speaker 1: All right, let's take some questions, ask Chuck. All right,

1148
01:08:11,160 --> 01:08:14,560
Speaker 1: I'll be honest, it's late for me. Well, it's actually

1149
01:08:14,680 --> 01:08:17,320
Speaker 1: very early Wednesday morning as I'm tapping this because I

1150
01:08:17,400 --> 01:08:19,200
Speaker 1: wanted you guys have the most up to date feed.

1151
01:08:19,640 --> 01:08:23,400
Speaker 1: So I'm only going to do three questions. First three

1152
01:08:23,439 --> 01:08:28,920
Speaker 1: on my list. Tyler, Salt Lake City. What strikes me

1153
01:08:28,960 --> 01:08:32,000
Speaker 1: about all this recent tariff business is that since Trump's

1154
01:08:32,000 --> 01:08:35,200
Speaker 1: tariffs are struck down, it feels as though Trump and

1155
01:08:35,680 --> 01:08:39,679
Speaker 1: AI are fighting against American business owners. They've basically said

1156
01:08:39,680 --> 01:08:41,720
Speaker 1: there's no way you're getting any of the tariff money back,

1157
01:08:41,920 --> 01:08:44,200
Speaker 1: almost as if American business owners are the enemy as

1158
01:08:44,200 --> 01:08:47,400
Speaker 1: well as the country on whom Trump wants to impost tariffs.

1159
01:08:47,400 --> 01:08:49,719
Speaker 1: I suppose it's really no surprise. Ultimately, Trump's interest seem

1160
01:08:49,720 --> 01:08:52,840
Speaker 1: to land on himself only. Look, I agree, and I

1161
01:08:52,880 --> 01:08:54,960
Speaker 1: think that this is what's going to happen. He's going

1162
01:08:55,000 --> 01:08:58,760
Speaker 1: to have lawsuits and this is what we, like I said,

1163
01:08:58,760 --> 01:09:02,880
Speaker 1: we talked about last April, which is eventually this is

1164
01:09:02,920 --> 01:09:05,040
Speaker 1: going to end up costing the government more money than

1165
01:09:05,080 --> 01:09:08,040
Speaker 1: they ever collect. Right, He's We're going to have to

1166
01:09:08,080 --> 01:09:10,840
Speaker 1: give the money back. The federal government's going to get sued.

1167
01:09:11,160 --> 01:09:14,000
Speaker 1: These folks are going to get their money back, and

1168
01:09:14,600 --> 01:09:18,599
Speaker 1: no doubt it'll get spent twice, which means it'll only double,

1169
01:09:18,720 --> 01:09:21,040
Speaker 1: you know, probably cost you this even more in our debt.

1170
01:09:21,120 --> 01:09:25,960
Speaker 1: And you're right, it is you know, it's particularly small

1171
01:09:25,960 --> 01:09:26,639
Speaker 1: business owners.

1172
01:09:27,360 --> 01:09:27,599
Speaker 2: Right.

1173
01:09:28,400 --> 01:09:32,120
Speaker 1: The tariffs hit small business owners more than any other part.

1174
01:09:31,880 --> 01:09:34,519
Speaker 2: Of this economy.

1175
01:09:35,560 --> 01:09:38,960
Speaker 1: Next question Scott c PLASIDUS, New Mexico. Hey, I see

1176
01:09:39,000 --> 01:09:43,639
Speaker 1: that Trump has pulled his endorsement of Colorado Congressman Jeff

1177
01:09:43,640 --> 01:09:46,800
Speaker 1: Heard and his endorsement primary challenger Hope Schleppmann. Congressman Herd

1178
01:09:46,840 --> 01:09:48,479
Speaker 1: spoken against the tariffs and is in favor of the

1179
01:09:48,520 --> 01:09:50,840
Speaker 1: Scoti's decision. Do you think that Congressman Heard or other

1180
01:09:50,880 --> 01:09:53,320
Speaker 1: city of congressman persons running against a Trump endorsed primary

1181
01:09:53,400 --> 01:09:55,599
Speaker 1: challenger could win their primaries. If so, who are likely

1182
01:09:55,640 --> 01:09:57,679
Speaker 1: candidates and would it be a sign of some rust

1183
01:09:57,680 --> 01:10:00,400
Speaker 1: in the joints of Trump's armors? As always thinks you

1184
01:10:00,439 --> 01:10:02,080
Speaker 1: offer us we are Richard Forret. Well, thank you for

1185
01:10:02,120 --> 01:10:04,799
Speaker 1: saying that. Look, this is one of my favorite primaries

1186
01:10:04,840 --> 01:10:09,200
Speaker 1: to watch because I do think if Trump wants to

1187
01:10:09,240 --> 01:10:11,559
Speaker 1: continue to rule the party by fear, he's got to

1188
01:10:11,680 --> 01:10:16,439
Speaker 1: be willing to use his endorsement to punish anybody that

1189
01:10:16,520 --> 01:10:20,920
Speaker 1: doesn't go along with his with his agenda. This is

1190
01:10:21,000 --> 01:10:23,559
Speaker 1: very dangerous to do. This is a tough district and

1191
01:10:23,840 --> 01:10:27,240
Speaker 1: heard one of close race, and now he's only making

1192
01:10:27,280 --> 01:10:30,519
Speaker 1: it harder, which means that House, the House Republican Majority

1193
01:10:30,520 --> 01:10:31,920
Speaker 1: Committee is going to have to spend money to try

1194
01:10:31,920 --> 01:10:35,040
Speaker 1: to save an incumbent against a presidential endorsement. Saying what

1195
01:10:35,120 --> 01:10:40,280
Speaker 1: happened with Massy, I think they're worth watching, right if

1196
01:10:40,760 --> 01:10:44,040
Speaker 1: especially you know we're going to find out. I think

1197
01:10:44,120 --> 01:10:47,639
Speaker 1: Hurd's primary is not to August and Massy. He's going

1198
01:10:47,640 --> 01:10:50,000
Speaker 1: to take place in May and Massie and Kentucky I

1199
01:10:50,000 --> 01:10:52,960
Speaker 1: think will tell us.

1200
01:10:53,320 --> 01:10:53,800
Speaker 2: We'll tell us.

1201
01:10:53,840 --> 01:10:57,320
Speaker 1: We'll tell us what the atmosphere is right, how how

1202
01:10:57,360 --> 01:10:59,879
Speaker 1: to vote. It is the president's base to the president.

1203
01:11:01,320 --> 01:11:04,960
Speaker 1: I think we'll get a clue on Herd's chances in

1204
01:11:05,000 --> 01:11:08,040
Speaker 1: May with the Massy primary in Kentucky. All right, last

1205
01:11:08,120 --> 01:11:11,439
Speaker 1: question comes from Mike and Honolulu. Hey there, thank you

1206
01:11:11,479 --> 01:11:12,840
Speaker 1: for all the work you do on the podcast. First

1207
01:11:12,880 --> 01:11:14,719
Speaker 1: thing I listened to on the days you drop nice

1208
01:11:14,720 --> 01:11:18,479
Speaker 1: so seeing articles on Maha pesticide fight stalling and Florida Rep.

1209
01:11:18,760 --> 01:11:21,960
Speaker 1: Maria Alvirus Salazar's Dignity Act, et cetera. How much will

1210
01:11:22,000 --> 01:11:24,320
Speaker 1: all these really move voters at the midterms. I feel

1211
01:11:24,320 --> 01:11:25,639
Speaker 1: like I've met a lot of folks over the past

1212
01:11:25,680 --> 01:11:28,559
Speaker 1: few years and in spite of disappointment or frustrations, have

1213
01:11:28,640 --> 01:11:30,160
Speaker 1: still supported the Republican ticket.

1214
01:11:30,160 --> 01:11:31,280
Speaker 2: Thanks Mike and Honolulu.

1215
01:11:31,920 --> 01:11:34,000
Speaker 1: Well, I look at it. I think I've compared it

1216
01:11:34,040 --> 01:11:37,439
Speaker 1: to erosion of a riverbed. Right, you don't see it

1217
01:11:37,479 --> 01:11:39,880
Speaker 1: every day if you check the river bed every day,

1218
01:11:39,880 --> 01:11:41,280
Speaker 1: but if you come back once a month, then you

1219
01:11:41,280 --> 01:11:45,800
Speaker 1: can notice when the riverbed is eroding. And I don't

1220
01:11:45,800 --> 01:11:50,200
Speaker 1: think any of these these things, you know, take take

1221
01:11:50,240 --> 01:11:54,880
Speaker 1: their toll cumulatively a bit, And I think you.

1222
01:11:54,840 --> 01:11:57,840
Speaker 2: Know, it's these little chip away So you lose.

1223
01:11:57,680 --> 01:12:03,280
Speaker 1: Some Maha moms because essentially, you know, Monsanto bought Trump's

1224
01:12:03,280 --> 01:12:07,080
Speaker 1: executive order on the pesticides thing with a massive donation.

1225
01:12:07,800 --> 01:12:10,360
Speaker 1: You know, are you losing everybody in support of Kennedy. No,

1226
01:12:10,920 --> 01:12:12,800
Speaker 1: but you're losing a little bit. You're going to lose

1227
01:12:12,840 --> 01:12:16,240
Speaker 1: some small business owners under your insistence on continuing to.

1228
01:12:16,040 --> 01:12:17,439
Speaker 2: Execute this terraf regime.

1229
01:12:17,960 --> 01:12:20,000
Speaker 1: Right, You're going to lose a few of the civil

1230
01:12:20,040 --> 01:12:23,280
Speaker 1: libertarians on how you've handled Ice.

1231
01:12:24,840 --> 01:12:26,519
Speaker 2: You're certainly going to lose some.

1232
01:12:28,080 --> 01:12:32,640
Speaker 1: In the who didn't want military adventurism, whether it's Venezuela

1233
01:12:32,760 --> 01:12:36,280
Speaker 1: or RN or elsewhere. Right, And it's just chip away,

1234
01:12:36,360 --> 01:12:37,920
Speaker 1: chip away, chip away. And if you look at the

1235
01:12:38,000 --> 01:12:41,920
Speaker 1: national poll numbers for him, he doesn't gain supporters at

1236
01:12:41,920 --> 01:12:43,240
Speaker 1: the moment. He hasn't gained.

1237
01:12:43,000 --> 01:12:44,280
Speaker 2: Supporters in a long time.

1238
01:12:45,200 --> 01:12:48,080
Speaker 1: It is literally he's rowing a boat with holes in it,

1239
01:12:48,800 --> 01:12:51,400
Speaker 1: and he's got somebody trying to get water out of

1240
01:12:51,400 --> 01:12:53,679
Speaker 1: the boat so it doesn't sink, and they're trying to row,

1241
01:12:54,560 --> 01:12:57,800
Speaker 1: and water's coming and he's taking on water and so

1242
01:12:58,640 --> 01:13:00,599
Speaker 1: you know, maybe it's a slow leak. Maybe he can

1243
01:13:00,640 --> 01:13:05,760
Speaker 1: get to shore before the boat sinks. But I take

1244
01:13:05,800 --> 01:13:09,040
Speaker 1: your look, and I think it is again, I don't

1245
01:13:09,080 --> 01:13:11,839
Speaker 1: look at it to his base supporters, it's really about

1246
01:13:11,960 --> 01:13:14,840
Speaker 1: independence in this fast medal. You know, where he's got

1247
01:13:14,840 --> 01:13:17,240
Speaker 1: to worry his supporters or is supporters excited about what

1248
01:13:17,280 --> 01:13:19,760
Speaker 1: he's doing or are they simply devoted and saying, oh, no,

1249
01:13:19,800 --> 01:13:20,639
Speaker 1: it hasn't changed.

1250
01:13:20,920 --> 01:13:24,360
Speaker 2: But are they going to crawl unbroken glass to vote right?

1251
01:13:26,000 --> 01:13:29,439
Speaker 1: You know, this is where I have skepticism about the

1252
01:13:29,520 --> 01:13:32,680
Speaker 1: rural communities in the agricultural Midwest. I mean, farmers have

1253
01:13:32,760 --> 01:13:35,519
Speaker 1: taken it on the chin with these tariffs. You know,

1254
01:13:35,600 --> 01:13:40,120
Speaker 1: this is this is why I I'd be fascinated to

1255
01:13:40,120 --> 01:13:44,240
Speaker 1: watch a Republican primary in South Dakota between Nome and Rounds.

1256
01:13:44,360 --> 01:13:46,479
Speaker 1: Rounds who has been a skeptic of these tariffs, and Nome,

1257
01:13:46,479 --> 01:13:48,240
Speaker 1: who will have no choice but to defend the president

1258
01:13:48,280 --> 01:13:51,920
Speaker 1: on it. That you know, it's like, Okay, let's see,

1259
01:13:52,120 --> 01:13:53,920
Speaker 1: let's see what a campaign like that looks like. There's

1260
01:13:53,960 --> 01:13:58,160
Speaker 1: no primary in Iowa on the Republican side that's active,

1261
01:13:58,160 --> 01:14:00,519
Speaker 1: but that'd be another one where if you did, you

1262
01:14:00,560 --> 01:14:04,639
Speaker 1: would you'd possibly have a divide on how the tariffs

1263
01:14:04,640 --> 01:14:11,559
Speaker 1: impact the economy in the Midwest. So I look at

1264
01:14:11,640 --> 01:14:13,559
Speaker 1: all of that and it's just sort of chip away,

1265
01:14:13,640 --> 01:14:16,800
Speaker 1: chip away, chip away, chip away. You know, you're not

1266
01:14:16,840 --> 01:14:19,640
Speaker 1: going to have this massive What you're going to have

1267
01:14:19,760 --> 01:14:25,080
Speaker 1: is some people just don't show up the vote. Others

1268
01:14:25,760 --> 01:14:29,920
Speaker 1: maybe do vote third party, and still others may actually

1269
01:14:29,960 --> 01:14:32,080
Speaker 1: cross the aisle, at least in congression ways, because you

1270
01:14:32,080 --> 01:14:37,960
Speaker 1: can you can rationalize voting for the other party and

1271
01:14:38,040 --> 01:14:40,800
Speaker 1: still be a Trump supporter. But you may think, you

1272
01:14:40,880 --> 01:14:43,080
Speaker 1: know what, he needs a little check or the government

1273
01:14:43,120 --> 01:14:46,479
Speaker 1: needs a check. And I don't like these tariffs. I

1274
01:14:46,560 --> 01:14:49,559
Speaker 1: like Trump doing these other things, but you know, let me,

1275
01:14:49,680 --> 01:14:52,040
Speaker 1: let me get Congress to hold him back on tariffs.

1276
01:14:52,920 --> 01:14:55,920
Speaker 1: You know, that's another It's a in some ways, the

1277
01:14:55,920 --> 01:15:01,160
Speaker 1: opposition to Trump is almost penalty free, if if in

1278
01:15:01,200 --> 01:15:03,439
Speaker 1: some of the in in some cases here for some

1279
01:15:03,479 --> 01:15:09,160
Speaker 1: of these Midwestern governors or Midwestern voters. So you know,

1280
01:15:09,240 --> 01:15:15,360
Speaker 1: it's it's ah, you're right, that one isn't going to

1281
01:15:15,479 --> 01:15:20,400
Speaker 1: like cause this massive groundswell of people leaving them. But

1282
01:15:20,479 --> 01:15:24,679
Speaker 1: it's the chip aways. It's the political death by.

1283
01:15:24,560 --> 01:15:25,600
Speaker 2: A thousand cuts.

1284
01:15:26,040 --> 01:15:30,000
Speaker 1: All Right, I'm gonna go get some sleep. Thank you

1285
01:15:30,360 --> 01:15:33,680
Speaker 1: for tuning in. Thanks for sticking around and I'll see

1286
01:15:33,680 --> 01:15:34,479
Speaker 1: you in twenty four hours.