WEBVTT - A-Rod Convo, Amazon Shareholder Letter

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.

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<v Speaker 2>You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live

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<v Speaker 3>Well, we are joined here in studio by Jason Kelly,

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<v Speaker 3>Chief corresponding for Bloomberg Originals and executive producer of a

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<v Speaker 3>new podcast, It's called The Deal with Alex Rodriguez and

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<v Speaker 3>Jason Kelly. On this week's episode of The Deal, Alex

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<v Speaker 3>Rodriguez and Jason Kelly speak with you as soccer legend

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<v Speaker 3>Brandy Chastain about private equity firm Six Streets Sports investments

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<v Speaker 3>and the bay FC owners.

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<v Speaker 4>Hope for the sports.

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<v Speaker 3>She also talks about if the world is ready for

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<v Speaker 3>women's sports, Let's take a listen.

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<v Speaker 5>I honestly believe that part of the equation that wasn't

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<v Speaker 5>in our control was the mass, general public and the

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<v Speaker 5>business sector not ready for women, not ready for powerful women,

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<v Speaker 5>not ready for women with big voices who have grand ideas.

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<v Speaker 5>We didn't have the deep pockets, and before coming here today,

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<v Speaker 5>I think that's the one thing that kept coming into

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<v Speaker 5>my head was I had zero dollars that I could

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<v Speaker 5>be an owner with all right, very.

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<v Speaker 3>Good stuff, Jessica che Chestain with our own Jason Kelly. Jason,

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<v Speaker 3>thanks for cover much for coming into the studio. Big

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<v Speaker 3>commute from your desk. You got a guest with you.

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<v Speaker 4>I know, I brought a buddy. I thought it was

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<v Speaker 4>bringing I thought it was bringing your former all star

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<v Speaker 4>friend to workday. Oh is it?

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<v Speaker 6>Oh?

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, sorry, I've remembered. I mean I'm a good sit Yeah.

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<v Speaker 4>Hey Rod, my co host right here with me. Awesome,

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<v Speaker 4>Thanks for coming in, Alex, appreciate it. Great to be here.

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<v Speaker 4>Thank you guys.

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<v Speaker 3>You guys, I've had so many cool podcasts and episodes

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<v Speaker 3>here speaking to some really cool people. Jessica Chestain, I

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<v Speaker 3>think for Brandy chester Brand, Brandy Chestain different chestin.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, just amazing.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, kind of when you think about nineteen ninety nine,

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<v Speaker 3>the world ripping the jersey off and everything, just that

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<v Speaker 3>that's such a big image and you kind of thought

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<v Speaker 3>she maybe that would be the launch of right women's soccer,

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<v Speaker 3>at least maybe women's sport. We haven't, I'm not sure

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<v Speaker 3>we've seen it. What'd you guys talk.

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<v Speaker 4>About I mean, I thought it was so fascinating Alex

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<v Speaker 4>because you know, she's an icon, right. I mean when

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<v Speaker 4>you think about like the people who have defined sports

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<v Speaker 4>in our lifetimes, especially in women's sports, like nobody bigger

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<v Speaker 4>than Brandy Chastain. And the amazing thing was that this

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<v Speaker 4>moment in nineteen ninet nine, it was gonna be like

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<v Speaker 4>the takeoff for women's sports, and it's like womp wamp,

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<v Speaker 4>like it just didn't happen. It actually failed twice, and

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<v Speaker 4>now she's an owner of a team. I was fascinated

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<v Speaker 4>by just kind of her perspective on all that. I

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<v Speaker 4>don't know if you were.

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<v Speaker 7>I thought it was great. And if you see what's

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<v Speaker 7>happened with Caitlyn Clark, now, we thought that was gonna

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<v Speaker 7>happen ninety nine and it kind of stalled, as Jason said,

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<v Speaker 7>But for me was how she's kind of going through

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<v Speaker 7>her journey from sports to business as a sports owner

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<v Speaker 7>and all the lessons that she's learned sports, the hard times,

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<v Speaker 7>the good times. She shared some incredible stories. But I'm

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<v Speaker 7>really interested how her next decade goes because she's all in.

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<v Speaker 6>Can I ask it? Okay, first of all, we should know,

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<v Speaker 6>I know very little about sports. So I'm going to

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<v Speaker 6>ask this question. I have a question about energy power prisons.

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<v Speaker 6>You can come to me, But why is it so

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<v Speaker 6>hard for women's sports to take to take off in

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<v Speaker 6>a material of way? Is it like the type of

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<v Speaker 6>sports we play? What's the problem, Alex? What do you think?

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<v Speaker 8>Well?

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<v Speaker 7>I think Kaylen Clark has captured the imagination of everyone.

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<v Speaker 7>And I'm old enough to remember when the NBA was on.

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<v Speaker 7>You watch the finals on tape delay, right, it was incredible,

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<v Speaker 7>right to think about that and the amount of tens

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<v Speaker 7>of millions of people that watch today. What Kayln Clark

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<v Speaker 7>has done is very much what I think Magic Johnson

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<v Speaker 7>and Larry Bird did in nineteen seventy nine, when you

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<v Speaker 7>know Bird was at Indiana State, Magic was at Michigan State,

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<v Speaker 7>and it was like these two Midwestern guys that captured America.

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<v Speaker 7>I think that is now here is true the moments right.

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<v Speaker 7>I think post COVID de Lance, the world has changed,

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<v Speaker 7>and I think it's been a perfect storm and she's

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<v Speaker 7>been the perfect ambassador. To have almost twenty million people

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<v Speaker 7>watching this is incredible.

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<v Speaker 4>And by the way, more people watched the Women's final

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<v Speaker 4>this year than the men's final first time in history,

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<v Speaker 4>and that actually, I think is one of the biggest

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<v Speaker 4>points of this is that there was long this assumption

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<v Speaker 4>of like, people are gonna watch women's sports on TV,

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<v Speaker 4>and so they just didn't put it on. I mean, shockingly,

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<v Speaker 4>a bunch of men made a decision that people wouldn't

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<v Speaker 4>watch women on TV. And then what happened was they

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<v Speaker 4>saw and you've seen this in your investment work, Alex,

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<v Speaker 4>what they saw was when they did put it on

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<v Speaker 4>the air, people watched and then it just kept building.

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<v Speaker 4>And I think the other really interesting thing that we

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<v Speaker 4>learned from Brandy was this idea that the investment wasn't

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<v Speaker 4>there initially. I mean, those two leagues failed because the

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<v Speaker 4>two previous soccer leagues for women in the US failed

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<v Speaker 4>because they tried it for like a year or two

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<v Speaker 4>and they're like, oh, that didn't work. Instead of you know,

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<v Speaker 4>you think about the NBA, you think about the NFL,

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<v Speaker 4>those were leagues that took decades to take hold. The

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<v Speaker 4>MLS is in its like twenty fifth thirtieth season and

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<v Speaker 4>is just getting traction. So part of it is just

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<v Speaker 4>like putting in the time in the month. I think,

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<v Speaker 4>you know, it's a former Wall Street guy, What makes

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<v Speaker 4>me about this transaction? You got private equity, yes, coming

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<v Speaker 4>private acquas not in Major League Baseball are there?

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<v Speaker 7>Yea?

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<v Speaker 4>Now they are getting there. I mean this is a

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<v Speaker 4>big thing that you're seeing up close and personal.

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<v Speaker 7>Yeah, I mean sports have these franchises have gotten so expensive.

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<v Speaker 7>To think a guy like Jerry Reinsdorf bought in nineteen

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<v Speaker 7>eighty one the White Sox for about sixteen million dollars,

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<v Speaker 7>and three years later, in eighty four, he buys the

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<v Speaker 7>Bulls with a guy with the name of Michael Jordan

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<v Speaker 7>already there for nineteen million dollars. It's incredible, right, and

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<v Speaker 7>those franches are worth close to ten collectively today.

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<v Speaker 4>So the world has exploded.

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<v Speaker 7>So what's happened is individuals can't really afford to write

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<v Speaker 7>checks for a billion two million dollars. It's hard to

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<v Speaker 7>have the type of liquidity. So what that leagues have

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<v Speaker 7>done is they've opened up the capital markets and private

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<v Speaker 7>eco groups like Arctos and Dial are now big investors.

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<v Speaker 7>And they said as LPs while passive LPs it's been

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<v Speaker 7>an industry for the last thirty years, has gone up

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<v Speaker 7>into the right about fifteen percent a year a year

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<v Speaker 7>over year.

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<v Speaker 6>And this is why Jason you were here because you've

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<v Speaker 6>covered private equity for a very long time. You literally

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<v Speaker 6>wrote books on it, and then you kind of saw

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<v Speaker 6>a while ago like where the direction of travel was

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<v Speaker 6>really going, Yeah, what's the kind of the return? Like

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<v Speaker 6>what's the return like on these things? Like like what

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<v Speaker 6>do you think?

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<v Speaker 4>I mean TBD A little long pause. Well, because we

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<v Speaker 4>haven't really you know, we've seen a couple exits. I mean,

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<v Speaker 4>so Dial made some money on the Phoenix Suns when

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<v Speaker 4>they were sold for four billion dollars a couple of

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<v Speaker 4>years ago, So that's been one exit. I mean what's

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<v Speaker 4>interesting is so Sixth Street. Just speaking specifically about Sixth Street,

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<v Speaker 4>and you know this is started by Alan Waxman, former

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<v Speaker 4>special situation said for Goldman Sachs was in a partnership

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<v Speaker 4>with TPG. You know, so they've invested one hundred and

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<v Speaker 4>twenty five million. They led an investment for one hundred

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<v Speaker 4>and twenty five million dollars into BAFC. I mean that's

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<v Speaker 4>real money, paid a record franchise fee fifty three million

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<v Speaker 4>dollars just to buy the team. I mean they're looking

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<v Speaker 4>at a scenario where they can get a five x

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<v Speaker 4>ten X. I mean, this is a long hold. So

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<v Speaker 4>the franchise values, as Alex just demonstrated, I mean, think

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<v Speaker 4>about I mean, Jerry Jones bought the Dallas Cowboys for

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<v Speaker 4>less than two hundred million dollars in the late eighties

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<v Speaker 4>early nineties, which, by the way, they said he was insane.

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<v Speaker 4>That was a crazy amount. This is a franchise now

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<v Speaker 4>worth nine or ten billion dollars. Alex, let's talk about ownership.

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<v Speaker 3>You're part of an ownership group for the Minnesota Timberwolves, right,

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<v Speaker 3>talk to us about that experience, and I love you

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<v Speaker 3>to talk to you about My personal opinion is I'm

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<v Speaker 3>concerned about the evaluation of franchises. I'm concerned about salaries

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<v Speaker 3>because it's all predicated in large part.

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<v Speaker 4>On broadcast rights.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, and with cord cutting, I'm not sure ESPN's going

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<v Speaker 3>to continue to write these crazy checks. So talk to

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<v Speaker 3>us about kind of what you've learned about as being

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<v Speaker 3>an owner there.

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<v Speaker 7>It's funny because one of my good friends and mentors

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<v Speaker 7>of Magic Johnson, and of course he played basketball for

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<v Speaker 7>a long time and he owns a baseball team, and

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<v Speaker 7>I played baseball for a long time, and I'm part

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<v Speaker 7>of the ownership group of the Minnesota Timberwolves and the Lynks.

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<v Speaker 7>You know what I think is there's no question that

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<v Speaker 7>the giant in sports in America's NFL. Right, And to

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<v Speaker 7>think that, you know, almost twenty million people watch Kayln Clark.

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<v Speaker 7>Those are NFL numbers on Sundays. I mean that is

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<v Speaker 7>that's the number one driver for all sports and which

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<v Speaker 7>creates a lot of people to be very bullish in

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<v Speaker 7>women's sports. But going back to well we have the

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<v Speaker 7>links as well. But I do think that the NFL

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<v Speaker 7>and the NBA are global sports, especially the NBA.

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<v Speaker 4>It's growing year over year.

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<v Speaker 7>If you look at social media as an example. As

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<v Speaker 7>a metrics, we're almost ten to one to the NFL.

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<v Speaker 7>We're almost fifteen to one to Major League Baseball. So Lebron, James,

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<v Speaker 7>Michael Jordan, Steph Curry, these are global names. I think

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<v Speaker 7>that is going to be a different landscape. But you'll

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<v Speaker 7>have more contributors. Maybe you have NBC pop in Amazon.

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<v Speaker 4>Apples, a lot of shooters.

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<v Speaker 7>Is not going to be the traditional So ESPN may

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<v Speaker 7>not write as big as check, but is there. I'm

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<v Speaker 7>not speaking for the NBA. I'm just giving you my

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<v Speaker 7>opinion that you may have a world where NBC may

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<v Speaker 7>split the finals with ESPN and ABC, So I think

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<v Speaker 7>you'll get to a similar result, just a different way.

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<v Speaker 6>So you said those words, and I knew those people,

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<v Speaker 6>so I feel like I'm not qualified ask this question.

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<v Speaker 6>But then for someone like me who's a newbie who

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<v Speaker 6>maybe wants to watch some stuff like I'm I don't know,

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<v Speaker 6>I would I need like a spreadsheet to like find

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<v Speaker 6>out like what's playing where or when what time, like

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<v Speaker 6>Amazon Prime, Netflix, something like that. And I wonder if

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<v Speaker 6>that's going to be a hurdle. Jason, what do you think.

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<v Speaker 4>To like, I mean, it could be. I mean, and

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<v Speaker 4>Paul knows this space better than anyone. You know, there's

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<v Speaker 4>been sort of a fracturing, but now sort of a reconsolidation.

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<v Speaker 4>It feels like of how we're going to consume sports.

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<v Speaker 4>I mean, you've followed this for years. You know that

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<v Speaker 4>live sports. Alex knows it from being on tele Division

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<v Speaker 4>and being broadcast himself. People love live sports and that

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<v Speaker 4>it's one of the only things that actually keeps people

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<v Speaker 4>coming back to live content. I do think, though, we

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<v Speaker 4>are in this weird world where sometimes you don't know

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<v Speaker 4>where to find it, and yet when you do, it

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<v Speaker 4>attracts the eyeballs. My New York Yankees off to a

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<v Speaker 4>great start this year.

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<v Speaker 3>Yes, what's your scouting You could say an hour New

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<v Speaker 3>York games in this room. Also a great start this year,

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<v Speaker 3>and now what's your scouting report of them?

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<v Speaker 7>Well, I think the Yankees have done a bunch of

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<v Speaker 7>good things this year.

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<v Speaker 4>Excuse me.

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<v Speaker 7>One of them is they've introduced baseball people back. If

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<v Speaker 7>you think about the powerhouse of the Yankees, they've been

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<v Speaker 7>built by great baseball people like Geene Michael's Stick Michael

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<v Speaker 7>as they call them, you know, Lupenela, Billy Martin. They've

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<v Speaker 7>gone away from that the last four or five years,

0:10:47.840 --> 0:10:51.040
<v Speaker 7>and they've suffered tremendously. The fact they brought baseball people

0:10:51.080 --> 0:10:53.720
<v Speaker 7>back in. They brought a much more balanced lineup, meaning

0:10:53.760 --> 0:10:57.600
<v Speaker 7>Alex there's more lefties than righty's. Historically, Yankee Stadium is

0:10:57.600 --> 0:11:00.920
<v Speaker 7>better for lefties. Last year they have like nine righties

0:11:00.920 --> 0:11:03.079
<v Speaker 7>in the lineup, which just way too much. They've gone

0:11:03.120 --> 0:11:05.120
<v Speaker 7>back to a much balanced lineup and now they have

0:11:05.160 --> 0:11:07.280
<v Speaker 7>the best one two punch in the sport with Aaron

0:11:07.360 --> 0:11:11.200
<v Speaker 7>Judge and Juan Soto. The challenge is do they have

0:11:11.320 --> 0:11:14.720
<v Speaker 7>enough pitching is one and two? They have they cornered

0:11:14.760 --> 0:11:17.800
<v Speaker 7>themselves by bringing in Juan Soto and not have a

0:11:17.800 --> 0:11:20.720
<v Speaker 7>long term contract. Where now? Is he gonna want the

0:11:20.920 --> 0:11:23.280
<v Speaker 7>tiny contract for seven hundred million dollars? And is he

0:11:23.440 --> 0:11:24.880
<v Speaker 7>just a one year wonder here in New York? I

0:11:24.920 --> 0:11:26.160
<v Speaker 7>think he's gonna have a massive year.

0:11:26.320 --> 0:11:26.520
<v Speaker 2>Yep.

0:11:26.559 --> 0:11:28.880
<v Speaker 7>The question is can they keep them? Second question is

0:11:28.880 --> 0:11:30.160
<v Speaker 7>do they have enough pitching to win the title?

0:11:30.160 --> 0:11:32.160
<v Speaker 3>Well, let me ask you that question. We like to

0:11:32.200 --> 0:11:34.880
<v Speaker 3>think New York fans that New York is a selling

0:11:34.920 --> 0:11:36.760
<v Speaker 3>point everybody would love to be. If you can be

0:11:36.800 --> 0:11:38.360
<v Speaker 3>a star here, you can be a star anywhere. There's

0:11:38.360 --> 0:11:40.240
<v Speaker 3>nothing better to be a star than New York City.

0:11:40.920 --> 0:11:43.200
<v Speaker 3>A lot of players, it's that I think they find

0:11:43.240 --> 0:11:44.760
<v Speaker 3>it hard to play in New York.

0:11:44.800 --> 0:11:47.240
<v Speaker 4>What was your experience coming to New York. I know

0:11:47.240 --> 0:11:49.839
<v Speaker 4>you're a New Yorker, so you you kind of know this,

0:11:49.960 --> 0:11:52.600
<v Speaker 4>But some of the people you saw during your career.

0:11:52.360 --> 0:11:55.200
<v Speaker 7>No, Paul, You're exactly right. I mean some people, you know,

0:11:55.200 --> 0:11:57.240
<v Speaker 7>the kitchens maybe a little bit too hot for some players,

0:11:57.480 --> 0:12:00.240
<v Speaker 7>and you know right away if they're uncomfortable, it's a

0:12:00.240 --> 0:12:02.160
<v Speaker 7>different place. He's the biggest media market in the world.

0:12:02.440 --> 0:12:04.600
<v Speaker 7>As they say, the pinstripes are very very heavy and

0:12:04.640 --> 0:12:07.400
<v Speaker 7>not everyone can carry them. Juan SODA's obviously one that

0:12:07.520 --> 0:12:09.439
<v Speaker 7>is going to play and play really well. Aaron Judge.

0:12:09.440 --> 0:12:10.160
<v Speaker 4>The Jetters of the.

0:12:10.080 --> 0:12:12.640
<v Speaker 7>World, they're icons for life because they won here in

0:12:12.679 --> 0:12:15.280
<v Speaker 7>New York. But some, I mean they melt into the sun.

0:12:15.320 --> 0:12:16.920
<v Speaker 7>I mean, you've seen a couple over the last four

0:12:17.000 --> 0:12:19.960
<v Speaker 7>or five years that were a shell of themselves and

0:12:20.040 --> 0:12:21.840
<v Speaker 7>you quickly have to pivot and get them out of here.

0:12:21.880 --> 0:12:22.080
<v Speaker 2>Yep.

0:12:22.160 --> 0:12:24.240
<v Speaker 4>One interesting thing on that note. First of all, we

0:12:24.280 --> 0:12:26.760
<v Speaker 4>talked about Michael talked to Michael Strahan about that on

0:12:26.800 --> 0:12:29.480
<v Speaker 4>the previous episode of The Deal. One person we are

0:12:29.600 --> 0:12:31.199
<v Speaker 4>literally going to tape with today, it's one of the

0:12:31.240 --> 0:12:33.360
<v Speaker 4>reasons Alex is in the building is stephen A. Smith,

0:12:33.640 --> 0:12:37.880
<v Speaker 4>and he's actually talked about Soto and like the power

0:12:37.920 --> 0:12:42.160
<v Speaker 4>of the pin stripes maybe enough to lure him in

0:12:43.160 --> 0:12:45.480
<v Speaker 4>to stay. So yeah, tune into that episode of The

0:12:45.520 --> 0:12:47.480
<v Speaker 4>Deal coming up in a few weeks because stephen A

0:12:47.760 --> 0:12:51.280
<v Speaker 4>he's got literally some takes. It's a sole job, that's

0:12:51.320 --> 0:12:52.880
<v Speaker 4>what he does, and what a career.

0:12:53.160 --> 0:12:55.840
<v Speaker 6>So this is this is really cool, Like what you guys,

0:12:55.880 --> 0:12:58.280
<v Speaker 6>do is super fun. Jason comes in and he talks

0:12:58.280 --> 0:12:59.920
<v Speaker 6>about it and you can tell he's like totally digg

0:13:00.200 --> 0:13:03.240
<v Speaker 6>is what's it like to work with Jason Kelly? How

0:13:03.280 --> 0:13:04.920
<v Speaker 6>do you manage that guy? Like?

0:13:04.960 --> 0:13:07.000
<v Speaker 4>What, Alex?

0:13:07.000 --> 0:13:09.280
<v Speaker 7>We already made a deal this morning because we are

0:13:09.480 --> 0:13:11.400
<v Speaker 7>you know, he's covered private equity. He's a great writer,

0:13:11.559 --> 0:13:13.600
<v Speaker 7>so I say, he writes, and I used the bat

0:13:13.679 --> 0:13:14.760
<v Speaker 7>so I hit he writes, and.

0:13:14.679 --> 0:13:15.440
<v Speaker 4>We made a good team.

0:13:15.840 --> 0:13:19.319
<v Speaker 7>But no, Alex, in all seriousness, is really the intersection

0:13:19.559 --> 0:13:22.199
<v Speaker 7>of Jason's career, mostly here at Bloomberg, in my career

0:13:22.200 --> 0:13:24.719
<v Speaker 7>mostly with the Yankees. And the fact is what we're

0:13:24.720 --> 0:13:27.520
<v Speaker 7>talking about is exactly both. And we live in a

0:13:27.520 --> 0:13:30.959
<v Speaker 7>world where it used to be sports and media and culture.

0:13:31.120 --> 0:13:33.120
<v Speaker 7>Now all three have come together, and that's what we

0:13:33.200 --> 0:13:35.160
<v Speaker 7>try to take away. And then also a lot of

0:13:35.240 --> 0:13:37.920
<v Speaker 7>lessons learned in this world of Shark Tank where young

0:13:37.960 --> 0:13:40.720
<v Speaker 7>people want to be more entrepreneurs than athletes, right, And

0:13:40.800 --> 0:13:43.480
<v Speaker 7>that's I think we're serving up and teaching and hoping

0:13:43.520 --> 0:13:46.240
<v Speaker 7>and inspiring through storytelling.

0:13:46.080 --> 0:13:47.960
<v Speaker 3>A lot of greats and I like you guys do

0:13:48.080 --> 0:13:51.720
<v Speaker 3>kind of bringing sports, entertainment, you know, all that together

0:13:52.080 --> 0:13:54.800
<v Speaker 3>and we're seeing it actually now in college sports with

0:13:54.880 --> 0:13:58.200
<v Speaker 3>it the nil the transfer portals, a lot of these

0:13:58.400 --> 0:14:00.800
<v Speaker 3>kids are able to monetize their value totally.

0:14:01.280 --> 0:14:03.320
<v Speaker 4>But there's some downside to that. It seems like if

0:14:03.360 --> 0:14:05.480
<v Speaker 4>you talk to you know, coach j.

0:14:05.559 --> 0:14:07.280
<v Speaker 3>Right at Villanova or maybe even coach k I'm going

0:14:07.320 --> 0:14:10.160
<v Speaker 3>to see today down at Duke or some others, they're saying, boy,

0:14:10.200 --> 0:14:12.040
<v Speaker 3>I'm not sure, maybe we've gone too far. What do

0:14:12.080 --> 0:14:14.400
<v Speaker 3>you think, Alex about what's happening in the college ranks

0:14:14.640 --> 0:14:15.880
<v Speaker 3>about paying some of these athletes.

0:14:15.880 --> 0:14:16.920
<v Speaker 4>It's a very dangerous road.

0:14:17.000 --> 0:14:19.120
<v Speaker 7>It's a very dangerous and very slippery and the reason

0:14:19.120 --> 0:14:21.440
<v Speaker 7>why I love that players are getting you know, the

0:14:21.520 --> 0:14:23.920
<v Speaker 7>finances and all of that. But maybe there's a structure

0:14:23.920 --> 0:14:26.800
<v Speaker 7>where there's more parity. Maybe there's a structure where kids

0:14:26.800 --> 0:14:28.400
<v Speaker 7>don't get the money when they're not ready for it

0:14:28.600 --> 0:14:30.400
<v Speaker 7>and they get in trouble by not knowing how to

0:14:30.440 --> 0:14:32.680
<v Speaker 7>pay taxes, And is this more of a liability than

0:14:32.680 --> 0:14:36.200
<v Speaker 7>an asset. I'm all for somebody getting market value, but

0:14:36.280 --> 0:14:38.560
<v Speaker 7>is there a world that we can, you know, hold

0:14:38.760 --> 0:14:40.960
<v Speaker 7>unto their thirty or thirty five until they get the

0:14:40.960 --> 0:14:43.320
<v Speaker 7>majority of that where that money is compounding for them,

0:14:43.680 --> 0:14:46.040
<v Speaker 7>so gift from the curse. And the other part is

0:14:46.040 --> 0:14:48.640
<v Speaker 7>that I'm concerned is we want to teach Coach k

0:14:48.720 --> 0:14:50.400
<v Speaker 7>is one of my great friends and one of the

0:14:50.440 --> 0:14:53.640
<v Speaker 7>great great personalities in all of sports. You want athletes

0:14:53.680 --> 0:14:55.400
<v Speaker 7>to be around coach k for three or four years,

0:14:55.440 --> 0:14:57.640
<v Speaker 7>not just one great point. So and same thing with

0:14:57.680 --> 0:14:59.040
<v Speaker 7>Kyle Party and all of that. So we want to

0:14:59.040 --> 0:15:01.640
<v Speaker 7>teach these kids that you know the power of restriction

0:15:02.160 --> 0:15:04.200
<v Speaker 7>and to be able to wait a little bit before

0:15:04.240 --> 0:15:06.000
<v Speaker 7>they get you know, the marshmallow, as they.

0:15:05.840 --> 0:15:08.480
<v Speaker 6>Say, before you let you go. And this is a

0:15:08.560 --> 0:15:10.800
<v Speaker 6>question we ask everybody, So, hey, why not you What

0:15:10.880 --> 0:15:11.440
<v Speaker 6>are you gonna buy?

0:15:11.480 --> 0:15:11.640
<v Speaker 1>Now?

0:15:12.680 --> 0:15:14.200
<v Speaker 6>What do you like?

0:15:14.560 --> 0:15:16.840
<v Speaker 4>This is a question. We have support folio matter what,

0:15:17.920 --> 0:15:19.160
<v Speaker 4>You've got a lot of investments.

0:15:19.200 --> 0:15:20.000
<v Speaker 6>Yeah, so what do you like?

0:15:20.200 --> 0:15:21.400
<v Speaker 4>You know that is a great question.

0:15:21.440 --> 0:15:23.520
<v Speaker 7>I mean, I'm so excited about the Minnesota Timbles and

0:15:23.520 --> 0:15:25.720
<v Speaker 7>the Lynx and we've done a lot of good work

0:15:25.720 --> 0:15:28.560
<v Speaker 7>over the last three years. We've been in first place

0:15:28.600 --> 0:15:31.280
<v Speaker 7>for most of the year, only two games remaining, so

0:15:31.320 --> 0:15:33.840
<v Speaker 7>we're sound to make a poison to make a good run,

0:15:33.840 --> 0:15:36.480
<v Speaker 7>hopefully in the postseason. But look, I think you wake

0:15:36.560 --> 0:15:40.040
<v Speaker 7>up every day you're prepared, you're ready for opportunities. That's

0:15:40.040 --> 0:15:42.120
<v Speaker 7>exactly how the opportunity of the timbulves came up and

0:15:42.160 --> 0:15:44.520
<v Speaker 7>the links. So the answer is, I don't know, but

0:15:44.520 --> 0:15:45.280
<v Speaker 7>we're always looking.

0:15:46.040 --> 0:15:47.520
<v Speaker 4>What are you guys going to ask steven A. I

0:15:47.520 --> 0:15:51.560
<v Speaker 4>can't imagine this thing could get heated quickly, you know.

0:15:51.640 --> 0:15:54.520
<v Speaker 4>I mean what I'm really interested in with him is

0:15:54.640 --> 0:15:57.040
<v Speaker 4>the business of stephen A. You know, I mean, because

0:15:57.120 --> 0:15:59.480
<v Speaker 4>he he's a game changer in so many ways. You know,

0:15:59.520 --> 0:16:02.320
<v Speaker 4>we both had chance to read his book ahead of this.

0:16:02.400 --> 0:16:06.080
<v Speaker 4>I mean, this is a guy who completely reshaped the

0:16:06.120 --> 0:16:09.680
<v Speaker 4>business of sports media. My sheer force of will got

0:16:09.720 --> 0:16:12.520
<v Speaker 4>knocked down a bunch. He had a great mentor in

0:16:12.560 --> 0:16:16.120
<v Speaker 4>Mark Shapiro, another upcoming guest on the deal. I'm just

0:16:16.160 --> 0:16:18.560
<v Speaker 4>telling all of our guests here, that's what I did.

0:16:19.320 --> 0:16:23.040
<v Speaker 4>Shameless plug, shamelessly, that's my middle name. But you know,

0:16:23.200 --> 0:16:26.440
<v Speaker 4>for stephen A, I think we don't know where it's

0:16:26.480 --> 0:16:28.280
<v Speaker 4>going to go. We know he doesn't like the Dallas Cowboys,

0:16:28.440 --> 0:16:30.240
<v Speaker 4>he doesn't, and he does love the Yankees.

0:16:30.280 --> 0:16:31.920
<v Speaker 7>And I just say, in conclusion, with Steven A is

0:16:31.960 --> 0:16:34.680
<v Speaker 7>really a story of rags to riches, But it hasn't

0:16:34.680 --> 0:16:36.320
<v Speaker 7>been straight up into the right. I mean to think

0:16:36.360 --> 0:16:39.840
<v Speaker 7>most people forgot this reading his book. I just remembered

0:16:40.000 --> 0:16:41.800
<v Speaker 7>he got fired from ESPN, he had to go to

0:16:41.840 --> 0:16:44.320
<v Speaker 7>Fox Radio, and then he's come back. And to think,

0:16:44.360 --> 0:16:46.280
<v Speaker 7>not only is he going to be the first guy

0:16:46.320 --> 0:16:48.720
<v Speaker 7>that makes person that makes over probably twenty to twenty

0:16:48.760 --> 0:16:52.040
<v Speaker 7>five million, but he's also could be the next Johnny Carson. Yeah,

0:16:52.120 --> 0:16:54.960
<v Speaker 7>and he's built an incredible business and I can't wait

0:16:54.960 --> 0:16:55.440
<v Speaker 7>to ask.

0:16:55.240 --> 0:16:58.800
<v Speaker 4>Them Michael Strahan talk about another mazing career coming in entertainment.

0:16:58.800 --> 0:16:59.960
<v Speaker 4>All right, guys, thanks very much.

0:17:00.720 --> 0:17:04.120
<v Speaker 3>Podcast It's called The Deal with Alex Rodriguez and Jason Kelly.

0:17:04.119 --> 0:17:06.359
<v Speaker 3>On this week's episode of The Deal, Alex Rodriguez and

0:17:06.400 --> 0:17:09.800
<v Speaker 3>Jason Kelly speak with US soccer legend Brandy Schestain about

0:17:09.800 --> 0:17:13.240
<v Speaker 3>private equity firm Sixth Street Sports Investment and the Bay

0:17:13.480 --> 0:17:15.760
<v Speaker 3>FC owners hope for the sports. She also talks about

0:17:15.920 --> 0:17:17.240
<v Speaker 3>if the world is ready.

0:17:16.960 --> 0:17:19.680
<v Speaker 4>For women's sports. So take a listen to that good stuff.

0:17:21.840 --> 0:17:25.720
<v Speaker 2>You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live

0:17:25.800 --> 0:17:29.320
<v Speaker 2>weekdays at ten am Eastern on applecard Play and Android

0:17:29.359 --> 0:17:32.119
<v Speaker 2>otto With the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen

0:17:32.240 --> 0:17:35.320
<v Speaker 2>live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

0:17:35.720 --> 0:17:40.280
<v Speaker 2>Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty Caroly Paul.

0:17:40.320 --> 0:17:41.800
<v Speaker 6>Amazon had a let her out today.

0:17:41.960 --> 0:17:42.920
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, this is something to do.

0:17:43.160 --> 0:17:43.880
<v Speaker 6>Is that a thing we do?

0:17:44.000 --> 0:17:44.119
<v Speaker 1>No?

0:17:44.359 --> 0:17:46.440
<v Speaker 4>Well, I think we start doing it now with mister Jesse.

0:17:46.680 --> 0:17:49.760
<v Speaker 6>M hmm, okay, I mean do we care about Amazon letters?

0:17:49.840 --> 0:17:50.800
<v Speaker 6>Is that something that.

0:17:50.720 --> 0:17:53.480
<v Speaker 3>I mean, there's so big and its retail goes to

0:17:53.520 --> 0:17:56.399
<v Speaker 3>the consumer. It's now they're a tech behemoth. They're now

0:17:56.680 --> 0:17:59.080
<v Speaker 3>huge advertising play. So I think the answer is yes.

0:17:59.160 --> 0:18:01.399
<v Speaker 3>And so let's check in with an expert. Punam Goyle,

0:18:01.640 --> 0:18:06.280
<v Speaker 3>senior US retail analyst for Bloomberg in Intelligence. She joins

0:18:06.359 --> 0:18:09.400
<v Speaker 3>us from our Princeton offices down there in.

0:18:09.320 --> 0:18:12.280
<v Speaker 4>The swamps of New Jersey. Punam, what did you make

0:18:12.320 --> 0:18:14.280
<v Speaker 4>of this letter? I mean, I think mister Jasse is

0:18:14.320 --> 0:18:17.160
<v Speaker 4>trying to just make sure that the market doesn't take

0:18:18.000 --> 0:18:20.320
<v Speaker 4>its attention away from the fact that Amazon is in

0:18:20.359 --> 0:18:21.920
<v Speaker 4>effect an AI play.

0:18:23.320 --> 0:18:25.480
<v Speaker 1>That is part of the story. Definitely. I think the

0:18:25.520 --> 0:18:29.000
<v Speaker 1>focus on the letter goes into all its businesses, starting

0:18:29.000 --> 0:18:31.520
<v Speaker 1>with retail, where they continue to push the envelope on

0:18:31.720 --> 0:18:35.920
<v Speaker 1>value and driving that GMB higher through its logistics platform

0:18:36.000 --> 0:18:39.840
<v Speaker 1>where they're improving same day delivery and really taking costs

0:18:39.880 --> 0:18:42.119
<v Speaker 1>out of the equation as much as they can. On

0:18:42.160 --> 0:18:45.040
<v Speaker 1>the AWS side, AI is the name of the game,

0:18:45.240 --> 0:18:47.920
<v Speaker 1>and they want to make sure that they are visible

0:18:48.000 --> 0:18:50.040
<v Speaker 1>that they are playing in that space and that is

0:18:50.080 --> 0:18:53.000
<v Speaker 1>going to improve every part of their business, not just

0:18:53.040 --> 0:18:55.960
<v Speaker 1>AWS alone, but in terms of AWS.

0:18:56.000 --> 0:18:58.719
<v Speaker 6>It feels like what they were saying is that AWS

0:18:58.800 --> 0:19:01.400
<v Speaker 6>is going to be the foundation for all the AI plays.

0:19:01.560 --> 0:19:03.120
<v Speaker 6>Is that Am I reading that correctly?

0:19:04.200 --> 0:19:04.440
<v Speaker 4>Yeah?

0:19:04.480 --> 0:19:06.600
<v Speaker 1>I mean, you know, where AI is built is going

0:19:06.600 --> 0:19:09.280
<v Speaker 1>to be inside of AWS. For Amazon, They're going to

0:19:09.320 --> 0:19:12.280
<v Speaker 1>be building or you could call it, the raw materials

0:19:12.440 --> 0:19:15.720
<v Speaker 1>of the codes and really providing that as an entry

0:19:15.760 --> 0:19:19.159
<v Speaker 1>point for businesses that use AWS and even within their

0:19:19.200 --> 0:19:23.600
<v Speaker 1>own businesses to create the efficiencies and the speed that's

0:19:23.680 --> 0:19:26.679
<v Speaker 1>needed to operate in the agile environment we live in

0:19:26.720 --> 0:19:28.400
<v Speaker 1>today and compete with OpenAI.

0:19:28.760 --> 0:19:30.919
<v Speaker 3>You know what I've learned since moving down to the

0:19:31.000 --> 0:19:33.919
<v Speaker 3>Jersey Shore is Central New Jersey and southern New Jersey

0:19:34.320 --> 0:19:36.720
<v Speaker 3>is like a warehouse capital.

0:19:36.320 --> 0:19:38.399
<v Speaker 4>Of the world. It seems like everywhere you go and

0:19:38.640 --> 0:19:39.720
<v Speaker 4>Punam lives around.

0:19:39.520 --> 0:19:42.240
<v Speaker 6>There, is it all Amazon or just it's everything.

0:19:42.359 --> 0:19:44.480
<v Speaker 4>It's everything about tons and tons of Amazon because you

0:19:44.560 --> 0:19:47.119
<v Speaker 4>got and you get to part and the gardens, the

0:19:47.160 --> 0:19:50.480
<v Speaker 4>State Parkway, got the new Jersey Turnpike, Philadelphia Port, New

0:19:50.560 --> 0:19:53.360
<v Speaker 4>York Port. I think it's all there. It's just amazing.

0:19:53.400 --> 0:19:57.280
<v Speaker 4>So pun them, I mean, talk to us about do

0:19:57.359 --> 0:19:59.960
<v Speaker 4>investors that you talk to that they still want Amazon

0:20:00.080 --> 0:20:06.040
<v Speaker 4>On to invest aggressively in their retail operations? There is

0:20:06.040 --> 0:20:08.359
<v Speaker 4>there more to go there and to investors, are they

0:20:08.359 --> 0:20:10.440
<v Speaker 4>okay with that given that maybe some of those dollars

0:20:10.520 --> 0:20:13.480
<v Speaker 4>could be to the cloud, or maybe Amazon has got

0:20:13.520 --> 0:20:15.600
<v Speaker 4>so much money they can invest in anything they want.

0:20:15.880 --> 0:20:17.760
<v Speaker 1>I mean, I think they need to invest in both

0:20:17.840 --> 0:20:19.920
<v Speaker 1>the cloud and retail. I don't think you want them

0:20:19.920 --> 0:20:22.879
<v Speaker 1>to stop investing in retail because remember, Paul, as the

0:20:22.920 --> 0:20:25.600
<v Speaker 1>retail business grows, which we estimate the GMA to grow

0:20:25.640 --> 0:20:28.960
<v Speaker 1>to our trillion dollars in the next coming years, that

0:20:29.160 --> 0:20:32.080
<v Speaker 1>impacts their advertising business, right, which has grown to nearly

0:20:32.119 --> 0:20:35.840
<v Speaker 1>fifty billion dollars today. The bigger retail gets, the more

0:20:35.880 --> 0:20:38.639
<v Speaker 1>money they can get for advertising too. So there is

0:20:38.640 --> 0:20:41.760
<v Speaker 1>a connection here and that's how retail is made profitable.

0:20:42.480 --> 0:20:44.439
<v Speaker 6>What also is interesting, aside from retail is what they

0:20:44.440 --> 0:20:48.119
<v Speaker 6>said about their Amazon Prime Video. They seem to think

0:20:48.160 --> 0:20:50.480
<v Speaker 6>it could be its own standalone, like good enough to

0:20:50.520 --> 0:20:52.200
<v Speaker 6>live on its own. What did you make of that?

0:20:53.080 --> 0:20:55.480
<v Speaker 1>I thought that was interesting. You know, Amazon Prime Video.

0:20:55.560 --> 0:20:58.639
<v Speaker 1>We know that it's something that they've been investing aggressively.

0:20:59.119 --> 0:21:01.560
<v Speaker 1>But I think the game changer here really is going

0:21:01.560 --> 0:21:05.560
<v Speaker 1>to be advertising again. Where as they implement ads within

0:21:05.640 --> 0:21:08.240
<v Speaker 1>the Prime videos, that's what's going to take it to

0:21:08.280 --> 0:21:10.920
<v Speaker 1>be profitable. Whenever that is. We haven't run the model yet,

0:21:10.960 --> 0:21:13.760
<v Speaker 1>but we think there's still a bit of time before

0:21:13.800 --> 0:21:16.320
<v Speaker 1>you can say that Prime Video on a standalone entity

0:21:16.440 --> 0:21:17.520
<v Speaker 1>is going to be profitable.

0:21:17.640 --> 0:21:18.480
<v Speaker 6>Do you do prime video?

0:21:19.320 --> 0:21:20.480
<v Speaker 4>I'm going to just say yes.

0:21:21.160 --> 0:21:23.119
<v Speaker 3>I mean, you know, you know what I do periodic

0:21:23.240 --> 0:21:25.280
<v Speaker 3>and maybe I'll do it on the plane ride down today.

0:21:25.760 --> 0:21:27.280
<v Speaker 4>Is I just go through and I delete.

0:21:27.000 --> 0:21:29.320
<v Speaker 3>Them all, you know, just periodically go and just delete

0:21:29.400 --> 0:21:31.040
<v Speaker 3>like I don't need this right now. I mean, you know,

0:21:31.280 --> 0:21:33.919
<v Speaker 3>because it's so easy to delete. Is as opposed to

0:21:34.320 --> 0:21:37.399
<v Speaker 3>trying and disconnect from Verizon or Comcast, which takes like

0:21:37.440 --> 0:21:38.200
<v Speaker 3>a half a lifetime.

0:21:38.440 --> 0:21:40.160
<v Speaker 6>It's true at the one hundred percent, and then there's

0:21:40.200 --> 0:21:42.360
<v Speaker 6>weird fees and it doesn't work in the whole thing.

0:21:42.440 --> 0:21:46.200
<v Speaker 3>Hey, put, what's the what's the investment call on Amazon

0:21:46.280 --> 0:21:49.119
<v Speaker 3>these days? I'm looking at the stock here, it's up

0:21:49.119 --> 0:21:51.080
<v Speaker 3>twenty two percent year to date, it's up over eighty

0:21:51.080 --> 0:21:52.840
<v Speaker 3>percent or but the trailing twelve months, so it's really

0:21:52.880 --> 0:21:57.080
<v Speaker 3>performed well. We're just under two trillion dollars in market cap.

0:21:57.400 --> 0:21:59.600
<v Speaker 3>When when you talk to investors kind of why do

0:21:59.680 --> 0:22:01.760
<v Speaker 3>people own it today? Why do people buy it today?

0:22:02.680 --> 0:22:05.560
<v Speaker 1>We think it's all about profitability. For the longest time,

0:22:05.600 --> 0:22:08.399
<v Speaker 1>for over two decades, Amazon was about market share gains

0:22:08.400 --> 0:22:11.280
<v Speaker 1>and top line gains. Today we're starting the store to

0:22:11.320 --> 0:22:14.160
<v Speaker 1>see the story turn into a profit play. So as

0:22:14.240 --> 0:22:17.280
<v Speaker 1>Aws climbs to over two hundred billion dollars in revenues,

0:22:17.280 --> 0:22:21.359
<v Speaker 1>which we expect, as the GMV for its online business

0:22:21.400 --> 0:22:24.240
<v Speaker 1>climbs to over a trillion dollars, and as advertising gain

0:22:24.320 --> 0:22:27.600
<v Speaker 1>scale to over one hundred billion dollars, you're talking about

0:22:27.640 --> 0:22:32.480
<v Speaker 1>the profit ability of this company improving vastly. Just last year,

0:22:32.520 --> 0:22:35.439
<v Speaker 1>you know, the profit's improved to about over six percent

0:22:35.440 --> 0:22:37.600
<v Speaker 1>from two percent the year before that. So we're starting

0:22:37.640 --> 0:22:39.960
<v Speaker 1>to see that play out, and we think the road

0:22:40.000 --> 0:22:42.960
<v Speaker 1>ahead is still very clear in terms of how they

0:22:43.119 --> 0:22:45.400
<v Speaker 1>parse out their way to be even more profitable.

0:22:46.400 --> 0:22:48.800
<v Speaker 6>Put before we let you go. Usually the reason why

0:22:48.800 --> 0:22:52.000
<v Speaker 6>we like the Jamie Diamond letter is because we get

0:22:52.040 --> 0:22:55.359
<v Speaker 6>really great macro reads and like calls on raids and

0:22:55.440 --> 0:22:58.159
<v Speaker 6>opinions about the FED. Did we get any of that

0:22:58.359 --> 0:23:03.640
<v Speaker 6>from Anny Jassey and of like consumer outlook, how their

0:23:03.800 --> 0:23:06.800
<v Speaker 6>end user me, how I'm doing in the market.

0:23:07.240 --> 0:23:09.320
<v Speaker 1>Well, they talked a little bit about value and how

0:23:09.320 --> 0:23:12.080
<v Speaker 1>they continue to really focus on low prices, which they

0:23:12.080 --> 0:23:14.720
<v Speaker 1>had done in four Q with Prime Prime Day, and

0:23:14.760 --> 0:23:18.440
<v Speaker 1>they also launched earlier this year a Spring Day sale.

0:23:18.560 --> 0:23:21.000
<v Speaker 1>So we do see that push on value, which tells

0:23:21.040 --> 0:23:24.760
<v Speaker 1>us that the consumer cares about prices. So they are

0:23:24.840 --> 0:23:27.119
<v Speaker 1>being sensitive to that and responding to that, and we

0:23:27.119 --> 0:23:29.600
<v Speaker 1>don't expect that to change as a year unfolds.

0:23:29.960 --> 0:23:31.680
<v Speaker 3>I tell you if I were an investor here, it'd

0:23:31.720 --> 0:23:34.680
<v Speaker 3>be for this reason. Free cash flow in twenty twenty

0:23:34.720 --> 0:23:36.159
<v Speaker 3>three thirty two billion.

0:23:36.320 --> 0:23:36.919
<v Speaker 4>Nice.

0:23:37.080 --> 0:23:39.800
<v Speaker 3>How about twenty twenty four sixty three billion is the

0:23:39.800 --> 0:23:43.560
<v Speaker 3>forecast and in twenty five eighty three billion a free cashlow,

0:23:43.600 --> 0:23:44.439
<v Speaker 3>So growth and free.

0:23:44.359 --> 0:23:46.240
<v Speaker 4>Cash flow put in, what do they do with the

0:23:46.280 --> 0:23:46.920
<v Speaker 4>free cash flow?

0:23:47.880 --> 0:23:49.640
<v Speaker 1>They're going to invest it back in the business. Right

0:23:49.680 --> 0:23:51.879
<v Speaker 1>as you said it. They still need to invest in AI,

0:23:51.960 --> 0:23:54.000
<v Speaker 1>they need to invest in AWS, and they need to

0:23:54.000 --> 0:23:57.600
<v Speaker 1>invest in logistics, so that will be the primary drivers

0:23:57.600 --> 0:23:59.080
<v Speaker 1>of their cash investments.

0:24:01.160 --> 0:24:03.359
<v Speaker 6>How I guess is the question. Rightly, they can't go

0:24:03.480 --> 0:24:06.520
<v Speaker 6>buy stuff, can they? Because of all the regulatory scrutiny

0:24:06.560 --> 0:24:08.240
<v Speaker 6>over big tech in that way. I mean, they can't

0:24:08.280 --> 0:24:09.720
<v Speaker 6>just go by TikTok for example.

0:24:10.560 --> 0:24:12.520
<v Speaker 1>No, I don't. I think it'll be much harder for

0:24:12.560 --> 0:24:15.320
<v Speaker 1>them to make an acquisition. They have to grow organically,

0:24:15.400 --> 0:24:18.120
<v Speaker 1>and they have to invest in their own businesses. That said,

0:24:18.160 --> 0:24:21.359
<v Speaker 1>there's plenty of opportunity for them to invest in what

0:24:21.400 --> 0:24:25.600
<v Speaker 1>they own, whether it's across advertising, prime video, their retail business,

0:24:25.600 --> 0:24:28.720
<v Speaker 1>and AWS. There's still a long runway for them to go.

0:24:28.840 --> 0:24:32.760
<v Speaker 1>Digital commerce alone is just at twenty five percent penetration

0:24:32.880 --> 0:24:35.640
<v Speaker 1>in the US and probably a little over that globally,

0:24:36.160 --> 0:24:39.360
<v Speaker 1>So there's opportunity across all of their businesses, even their

0:24:39.359 --> 0:24:40.119
<v Speaker 1>biggest business.

0:24:40.240 --> 0:24:40.440
<v Speaker 4>Yeah.

0:24:40.440 --> 0:24:42.840
<v Speaker 3>I mean, they're spending you know, sixty billion dollars a

0:24:42.880 --> 0:24:46.320
<v Speaker 3>year in capital expenditure, so it's sound like they're you know, yeah, exactly,

0:24:46.359 --> 0:24:48.000
<v Speaker 3>all right. Put them thanks so much for joining us there.

0:24:48.080 --> 0:24:51.600
<v Speaker 3>Put them Goyle, senior US retail analysts for Bloomberg Intelligence,

0:24:51.800 --> 0:24:56.080
<v Speaker 3>Joining us from our studios down in Princeton, New Jersey.

0:24:56.480 --> 0:25:01.119
<v Speaker 2>You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast live weekdays at

0:25:01.160 --> 0:25:04.040
<v Speaker 2>ten am Eastern on Effocarplay and Android Otto with the

0:25:04.080 --> 0:25:07.960
<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts,

0:25:08.200 --> 0:25:11.960
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0:25:12.000 --> 0:25:15.120
<v Speaker 6>We also cover Bloomberg Big Take stories, and that's when

0:25:15.119 --> 0:25:17.080
<v Speaker 6>we take a broad look at some of the major

0:25:17.160 --> 0:25:19.719
<v Speaker 6>trends in the market and we dive deep. And they

0:25:19.720 --> 0:25:22.840
<v Speaker 6>are really amazing stories and they're worth a ton of work.

0:25:22.880 --> 0:25:27.119
<v Speaker 6>And the one today blew my brain And for a

0:25:27.280 --> 0:25:29.879
<v Speaker 6>mother of a daughter who's nine and a half, I

0:25:29.920 --> 0:25:33.280
<v Speaker 6>gotta tell you, I love the story. This has to

0:25:33.320 --> 0:25:37.440
<v Speaker 6>do with basically your return on investment for Ivy League colleges,

0:25:37.600 --> 0:25:42.280
<v Speaker 6>private colleges, Mini ivys, public schools, et cetera. And it's

0:25:42.560 --> 0:25:45.479
<v Speaker 6>very different from what you may think. Joining us now

0:25:45.480 --> 0:25:47.800
<v Speaker 6>are the personal finance reporters in charge of the story,

0:25:47.960 --> 0:25:51.720
<v Speaker 6>Paulina Chiceriro and Francesca Maglioni. Joining us now live in

0:25:51.760 --> 0:25:54.600
<v Speaker 6>our inactive broker studio. Ladies, First of all, how did

0:25:54.600 --> 0:25:56.800
<v Speaker 6>you come up with this. I would never have thought

0:25:56.840 --> 0:25:59.439
<v Speaker 6>of sort of putting a bloomberg angle ROI of college

0:25:59.440 --> 0:26:02.240
<v Speaker 6>in this particular regular light. How did you guys together

0:26:02.280 --> 0:26:02.840
<v Speaker 6>come up with it?

0:26:03.800 --> 0:26:07.160
<v Speaker 9>Yeah, So we had been talking to a bunch of families,

0:26:07.240 --> 0:26:11.400
<v Speaker 9>college counselors, parents and kids that were nervous about getting

0:26:11.440 --> 0:26:14.000
<v Speaker 9>into college, thinking about the cost of college, thinking is

0:26:14.040 --> 0:26:16.320
<v Speaker 9>it even worth it? And we kind of wanted to

0:26:16.359 --> 0:26:20.000
<v Speaker 9>give people a number to answer their question, like, yes,

0:26:20.080 --> 0:26:23.040
<v Speaker 9>everyone says college is overwhelmingly worth it, but like, how

0:26:23.040 --> 0:26:25.040
<v Speaker 9>does that change depending on the school that you're looking

0:26:25.080 --> 0:26:28.600
<v Speaker 9>at and the kind of institution that you're thinking of attending.

0:26:28.600 --> 0:26:30.320
<v Speaker 9>So we kind of wanted to give people a tool

0:26:30.440 --> 0:26:32.680
<v Speaker 9>to answer that question a little bit more.

0:26:33.240 --> 0:26:34.320
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, and smart way.

0:26:34.480 --> 0:26:36.959
<v Speaker 10>Francesca has done really a lot of great reporting tracking

0:26:37.160 --> 0:26:41.160
<v Speaker 10>just how much colleges costs, especially elite institutions. She wrote

0:26:41.200 --> 0:26:44.280
<v Speaker 10>a great story about how college is today, the elite

0:26:44.280 --> 0:26:46.639
<v Speaker 10>colleges that most students want to get into, the costs

0:26:46.640 --> 0:26:49.200
<v Speaker 10>are stretching past ninety thousand dollars.

0:26:49.280 --> 0:26:49.760
<v Speaker 4>Paul knows.

0:26:49.800 --> 0:26:51.520
<v Speaker 6>Paul knows aware.

0:26:53.080 --> 0:26:55.280
<v Speaker 10>And so when you think of those costs, I think

0:26:55.320 --> 0:26:57.800
<v Speaker 10>a lot more families are being forced to consider, like

0:26:57.840 --> 0:27:01.200
<v Speaker 10>what is the ROI, and they've been doing these calculations themselves,

0:27:01.240 --> 0:27:03.520
<v Speaker 10>so we wanted to, you know, crunch the numbers for them.

0:27:03.960 --> 0:27:07.160
<v Speaker 4>Of the four kids of mine who I've paid for,

0:27:07.640 --> 0:27:09.359
<v Speaker 4>Penn State was the best value.

0:27:09.680 --> 0:27:12.520
<v Speaker 3>It was a relative by well relative to everybody else

0:27:12.600 --> 0:27:15.720
<v Speaker 3>way low, and it's got one of the best engineering schools,

0:27:15.760 --> 0:27:20.560
<v Speaker 3>and the numbnuts got a great job and aerospace engineering

0:27:20.880 --> 0:27:22.080
<v Speaker 3>doing all kinds of crazy stuff.

0:27:22.119 --> 0:27:24.440
<v Speaker 4>So it makes sense to me. I think one of the.

0:27:24.359 --> 0:27:28.040
<v Speaker 3>Parts of the story that's interesting is just generally is

0:27:28.720 --> 0:27:31.520
<v Speaker 3>college in general worth it relative to or also you

0:27:31.520 --> 0:27:34.280
<v Speaker 3>could go maybe go to a trade school and come

0:27:34.320 --> 0:27:37.800
<v Speaker 3>out with little to no debt and still get jobs, and.

0:27:37.640 --> 0:27:40.600
<v Speaker 4>That ROI looks very interesting. I mean, how do you

0:27:40.640 --> 0:27:41.360
<v Speaker 4>guys think about that?

0:27:42.560 --> 0:27:45.520
<v Speaker 10>Yeah, So we actually, like in our story, did look

0:27:45.520 --> 0:27:48.040
<v Speaker 10>at what would the ROI be of someone who graduated

0:27:48.040 --> 0:27:51.240
<v Speaker 10>from high school. So someone making ten dollars an hour

0:27:51.280 --> 0:27:53.880
<v Speaker 10>would have an ROI of about one hundred and ninety

0:27:53.880 --> 0:27:57.720
<v Speaker 10>one thousand dollars ten years after, you know, when normal

0:27:57.760 --> 0:28:01.480
<v Speaker 10>college graduates enroll. And to put that into perspective, the

0:28:01.600 --> 0:28:05.080
<v Speaker 10>average ROI for all colleges was about ninety eight thousand,

0:28:05.720 --> 0:28:09.880
<v Speaker 10>so you can see how you know, initially it might

0:28:09.960 --> 0:28:12.679
<v Speaker 10>seem like beneficial, but that's because when you're going to college,

0:28:12.680 --> 0:28:15.480
<v Speaker 10>you know, you're paying for college, you're putting in that investment.

0:28:15.880 --> 0:28:18.800
<v Speaker 10>But you know, once you graduate, college graduates do tend

0:28:18.800 --> 0:28:21.159
<v Speaker 10>to have higher earnings, so it does balance out in

0:28:21.200 --> 0:28:21.920
<v Speaker 10>the longer term.

0:28:22.000 --> 0:28:24.879
<v Speaker 6>So for ESSCA, help me understand the different buckets that

0:28:24.920 --> 0:28:27.240
<v Speaker 6>you guys looked at and sort of the data that

0:28:27.280 --> 0:28:27.800
<v Speaker 6>you found.

0:28:28.280 --> 0:28:31.080
<v Speaker 9>Yeah, so we wanted to understand what types of schools

0:28:31.080 --> 0:28:33.560
<v Speaker 9>were doing better than others, and so we grouped schools

0:28:33.600 --> 0:28:38.400
<v Speaker 9>by the ivys, which obviously overperformed as they do always,

0:28:39.200 --> 0:28:42.400
<v Speaker 9>and then we looked at private elite institutions, which were

0:28:42.400 --> 0:28:44.640
<v Speaker 9>a group of sixty three schools that are any school

0:28:44.640 --> 0:28:51.400
<v Speaker 9>that you would think of is competitive, selective, think Vasa, Oberlin,

0:28:52.120 --> 0:28:55.200
<v Speaker 9>Wake Forest, those kinds of schools. Then we looked at

0:28:55.240 --> 0:29:00.440
<v Speaker 9>public flagship institutions and other public and elite, other public

0:29:00.440 --> 0:29:03.600
<v Speaker 9>and private schools, and what we found was that after

0:29:03.680 --> 0:29:06.960
<v Speaker 9>you look at the ivys, the private elite institutions and

0:29:07.000 --> 0:29:09.760
<v Speaker 9>the public flagships kind of performed the same at the

0:29:09.800 --> 0:29:12.080
<v Speaker 9>ten year mark. And that was I think our most

0:29:12.120 --> 0:29:14.360
<v Speaker 9>surprising finding because we feel like a lot of people

0:29:14.760 --> 0:29:17.840
<v Speaker 9>put a lot of emphasis on prestige when thinking about college,

0:29:17.880 --> 0:29:20.680
<v Speaker 9>and we're kind of trying to tell them, Wait, maybe

0:29:20.680 --> 0:29:23.360
<v Speaker 9>a public college that accepts most of its applicants can

0:29:23.360 --> 0:29:24.560
<v Speaker 9>give you that same ROI.

0:29:25.080 --> 0:29:28.120
<v Speaker 3>So how about what's the impact I guess or on

0:29:28.200 --> 0:29:30.760
<v Speaker 3>your ROI calculations from what.

0:29:30.840 --> 0:29:31.520
<v Speaker 4>Major you take?

0:29:32.160 --> 0:29:33.640
<v Speaker 6>Yes, that's a good question, you know.

0:29:33.600 --> 0:29:37.520
<v Speaker 4>Engineering, good business? I would think good.

0:29:38.720 --> 0:29:40.320
<v Speaker 6>The same idea is, like, you go to Oberlin, it's

0:29:40.320 --> 0:29:45.000
<v Speaker 6>a liberal arts education, right, like that humanities and psychologip

0:29:45.000 --> 0:29:46.040
<v Speaker 6>play into the math.

0:29:45.880 --> 0:29:47.240
<v Speaker 4>I guess. Yeah.

0:29:47.280 --> 0:29:50.040
<v Speaker 10>So we did tend to find that major place a

0:29:50.120 --> 0:29:53.200
<v Speaker 10>huge role in ROI. Schools where a majority of their

0:29:53.240 --> 0:29:56.880
<v Speaker 10>graduates came from STEM fields tended to overperform well. And

0:29:56.960 --> 0:29:59.240
<v Speaker 10>there are actually some surprise winners. When you look at

0:29:59.240 --> 0:30:02.959
<v Speaker 10>our roy LIFT schools like the Colorado School of Mines,

0:30:03.320 --> 0:30:08.880
<v Speaker 10>the Saint Louis Pharmacy Academy, and many more schools that

0:30:09.000 --> 0:30:11.680
<v Speaker 10>have a STEM focus, we're doing just as well as

0:30:11.680 --> 0:30:13.960
<v Speaker 10>some ivy's, or even better than other ivs as well.

0:30:14.040 --> 0:30:16.120
<v Speaker 6>So what is it? I wonder if what this really

0:30:16.160 --> 0:30:19.040
<v Speaker 6>tells us is that if you major in humanities, your

0:30:19.160 --> 0:30:22.920
<v Speaker 6>ROI stinks, Like is this like what we're learning unless

0:30:22.960 --> 0:30:24.960
<v Speaker 6>you do that in an ivy, because then you have

0:30:25.000 --> 0:30:28.080
<v Speaker 6>the certain types of connections, et cetera, and you may

0:30:28.120 --> 0:30:30.080
<v Speaker 6>get a better job other than that. Do we just

0:30:31.000 --> 0:30:35.280
<v Speaker 6>is that the problem? Francesca's sort of laughing.

0:30:35.480 --> 0:30:37.200
<v Speaker 9>I mean, it's typ a critical of me to say

0:30:37.240 --> 0:30:38.760
<v Speaker 9>I studied visual and media.

0:30:38.520 --> 0:30:42.320
<v Speaker 6>Science, girl, I was a theater director. We're all good.

0:30:42.720 --> 0:30:45.800
<v Speaker 9>But I guess if you just look at the data

0:30:45.920 --> 0:30:50.760
<v Speaker 9>and you're paying a hefty sticker price for college, then yes,

0:30:50.960 --> 0:30:56.320
<v Speaker 9>it's strategically the strategically, the most I guess smart way

0:30:56.360 --> 0:30:58.480
<v Speaker 9>to go about it is to study STEM because these

0:30:59.520 --> 0:31:02.200
<v Speaker 9>jobs put you directly into the labor market and are

0:31:02.320 --> 0:31:07.200
<v Speaker 9>really high paying careers. If you look further down the line,

0:31:07.240 --> 0:31:12.320
<v Speaker 9>these liberal art colleges do tend to gain get better earnings,

0:31:12.360 --> 0:31:14.680
<v Speaker 9>but it's more of a long run than it would

0:31:14.680 --> 0:31:16.400
<v Speaker 9>be if you're like, really want to see those earnings

0:31:16.480 --> 0:31:16.840
<v Speaker 9>right away?

0:31:18.600 --> 0:31:18.840
<v Speaker 4>Please?

0:31:18.880 --> 0:31:19.360
<v Speaker 6>Oh sorry.

0:31:19.440 --> 0:31:21.240
<v Speaker 10>One thing I wanted to know is that with the

0:31:21.280 --> 0:31:23.520
<v Speaker 10>rise of artificial intelligence, there has been a lot of

0:31:23.560 --> 0:31:27.480
<v Speaker 10>discussion about how the critical thinking skills associated with a

0:31:27.520 --> 0:31:31.200
<v Speaker 10>liberal arts degree, you know, might actually be more advantageous

0:31:31.200 --> 0:31:33.120
<v Speaker 10>in the labor market later down the line, but we

0:31:33.160 --> 0:31:35.240
<v Speaker 10>don't know what that is. So this is a snapshot

0:31:35.240 --> 0:31:38.120
<v Speaker 10>of a point in time, probably the last ten years.

0:31:38.200 --> 0:31:39.600
<v Speaker 3>You know, I see you look at like one of

0:31:39.600 --> 0:31:41.760
<v Speaker 3>the schools, the big state schools, the University of Georgia.

0:31:42.000 --> 0:31:44.120
<v Speaker 3>You think about a big school like that, you know,

0:31:44.160 --> 0:31:46.360
<v Speaker 3>one of the events is they have a big alumni network.

0:31:46.520 --> 0:31:49.280
<v Speaker 3>But I mean the state schools in general, how did

0:31:49.280 --> 0:31:51.560
<v Speaker 3>they kind of rank in general? Because there are some

0:31:51.640 --> 0:31:54.200
<v Speaker 3>really really good state schools, whether.

0:31:54.040 --> 0:31:56.320
<v Speaker 4>It's you know, Virginia or Michigan or in those kinds

0:31:56.320 --> 0:31:56.640
<v Speaker 4>of things.

0:31:56.960 --> 0:31:59.240
<v Speaker 9>Yeah, the state schools did really well. I think what's

0:31:59.520 --> 0:32:02.640
<v Speaker 9>driving their ROI to be higher than many elite private

0:32:02.680 --> 0:32:06.239
<v Speaker 9>schools is that they're just cheaper to attend. And at

0:32:06.280 --> 0:32:08.960
<v Speaker 9>the end of the day, like Paulina mentioned at the beginning,

0:32:09.440 --> 0:32:11.920
<v Speaker 9>paying ninety thousand dollars for college is just going to

0:32:11.920 --> 0:32:13.920
<v Speaker 9>set you back in terms of ROI, You're going to

0:32:14.000 --> 0:32:17.040
<v Speaker 9>be uh just it's the earnings are going to take

0:32:17.080 --> 0:32:20.200
<v Speaker 9>longer to level out, and so public schools in this

0:32:20.360 --> 0:32:22.920
<v Speaker 9>instance tend to overperform because of that.

0:32:23.320 --> 0:32:25.280
<v Speaker 10>And one of the sources that we talked to went

0:32:25.360 --> 0:32:27.800
<v Speaker 10>to the University of Georgia and is now working as

0:32:27.840 --> 0:32:30.000
<v Speaker 10>a credit analyst at Blackstone, and one of the things

0:32:30.000 --> 0:32:32.520
<v Speaker 10>that he mentioned was he knew he was someone who

0:32:32.560 --> 0:32:34.520
<v Speaker 10>is ambitious and driven and was going to put the

0:32:34.560 --> 0:32:37.120
<v Speaker 10>work in that he think he had the same outcome

0:32:37.120 --> 0:32:39.560
<v Speaker 10>as people who did go to these elite colleges. So

0:32:39.920 --> 0:32:42.920
<v Speaker 10>sometimes it is it is very individual dependent. If you're

0:32:42.920 --> 0:32:45.640
<v Speaker 10>willing to put in the work and you're really ambitious.

0:32:45.360 --> 0:32:54.680
<v Speaker 6>Right and graduate, Yeah, I flying down. And that just

0:32:54.680 --> 0:32:56.560
<v Speaker 6>makes the point that like if you want humanities like

0:32:56.640 --> 0:32:59.800
<v Speaker 6>maybe sort of the public institutions where you can get

0:33:00.040 --> 0:33:04.600
<v Speaker 6>keeper but also get that humanity education, I'm wondering, and

0:33:04.720 --> 0:33:07.440
<v Speaker 6>you're right, it all like the drive for sure, Like

0:33:07.800 --> 0:33:09.760
<v Speaker 6>that's going to depend. That's why I keep telling my kid,

0:33:09.920 --> 0:33:12.600
<v Speaker 6>like I'm like it's okay, Like great, I know, I know,

0:33:12.840 --> 0:33:14.360
<v Speaker 6>but it's like grades are important, for sure, you got

0:33:14.440 --> 0:33:16.480
<v Speaker 6>to get into a school, but like your ability to

0:33:16.640 --> 0:33:19.960
<v Speaker 6>be a human is also more important. She did draw

0:33:20.040 --> 0:33:21.719
<v Speaker 6>the whole hey do I have to go to college

0:33:21.720 --> 0:33:23.360
<v Speaker 6>thing the other night out of like nowhere, and I

0:33:23.440 --> 0:33:25.920
<v Speaker 6>was like, oh, yeah, you do. That's how you said

0:33:25.920 --> 0:33:28.640
<v Speaker 6>it didn't matter, And I was like, not didn't it

0:33:28.640 --> 0:33:30.400
<v Speaker 6>didn't matter where you went? Are you guys going to

0:33:30.480 --> 0:33:32.959
<v Speaker 6>do this for New York City public versus private schools,

0:33:32.960 --> 0:33:35.600
<v Speaker 6>because I would really appreciate that ROI please.

0:33:35.760 --> 0:33:37.640
<v Speaker 4>Yes, exactly, they're not even they're.

0:33:37.480 --> 0:33:39.400
<v Speaker 9>Not even Dad is available?

0:33:40.160 --> 0:33:40.400
<v Speaker 8>All right?

0:33:40.440 --> 0:33:42.560
<v Speaker 4>What's the what's the biggest surprise that you guys had

0:33:42.600 --> 0:33:43.520
<v Speaker 4>from from your work here?

0:33:44.960 --> 0:33:47.520
<v Speaker 10>The biggest surprise, I think that you know, there's a

0:33:47.560 --> 0:33:51.520
<v Speaker 10>lot of intangible benefits that people think of when going

0:33:51.520 --> 0:33:55.720
<v Speaker 10>to a prestigious school, this alumni network, this idea that

0:33:55.760 --> 0:33:58.480
<v Speaker 10>it'll open doors and help you, you know, climb the

0:33:58.640 --> 0:34:01.880
<v Speaker 10>economic ladder. And I think what was surprising is that

0:34:02.040 --> 0:34:04.640
<v Speaker 10>people felt, even with all that and acknowledging that they

0:34:04.680 --> 0:34:07.080
<v Speaker 10>did get those when they went to the prestigious schools,

0:34:07.120 --> 0:34:11.040
<v Speaker 10>that you know, it's still the cost of that college

0:34:11.120 --> 0:34:13.160
<v Speaker 10>kept them from achieving the things in life that they

0:34:13.200 --> 0:34:15.600
<v Speaker 10>thought really mattered, like being able to start a family,

0:34:16.280 --> 0:34:18.480
<v Speaker 10>owning a home, even being able to buy a car.

0:34:18.680 --> 0:34:21.319
<v Speaker 10>One of the people we spoke with said he his

0:34:21.800 --> 0:34:24.600
<v Speaker 10>student loan payments have been more than his rent and

0:34:24.719 --> 0:34:27.680
<v Speaker 10>have been since he graduated, So I believe it.

0:34:28.239 --> 0:34:30.560
<v Speaker 3>I'm going to have this conversation with my daughter about

0:34:30.600 --> 0:34:32.280
<v Speaker 3>helping out with a home purchase.

0:34:32.480 --> 0:34:33.600
<v Speaker 4>That's kind of Monday.

0:34:33.760 --> 0:34:34.200
<v Speaker 6>Is that coming?

0:34:34.200 --> 0:34:36.880
<v Speaker 4>I think that's money asked me to go to lunch.

0:34:38.480 --> 0:34:40.960
<v Speaker 6>Like priorities change, Like your priority that you're going to

0:34:41.040 --> 0:34:42.840
<v Speaker 6>have when you're eighteen is different when you're thirty.

0:34:42.960 --> 0:34:44.680
<v Speaker 4>Like socialistic thing.

0:34:44.719 --> 0:34:46.759
<v Speaker 6>I love the story. I'm like, all great, thank you

0:34:46.840 --> 0:34:47.160
<v Speaker 6>so much.

0:34:47.800 --> 0:34:50.879
<v Speaker 3>And Duke, so some pretty good schools there, you guys

0:34:50.880 --> 0:34:52.360
<v Speaker 3>feel like it was good worth it?

0:34:52.600 --> 0:34:52.799
<v Speaker 4>Yeah?

0:34:52.880 --> 0:34:57.160
<v Speaker 10>Yeah, yes they did pretty decent ROII so yeah.

0:34:57.920 --> 0:35:01.800
<v Speaker 6>Okay, right, frantask. Thank you very much for Tessca Maglione

0:35:01.880 --> 0:35:04.640
<v Speaker 6>and also Paulina Chicero. Thank you very much. I highly

0:35:04.640 --> 0:35:07.440
<v Speaker 6>recommend that you do private versus public in New York City.

0:35:07.480 --> 0:35:10.160
<v Speaker 6>Thank you, next assignment, good job. You can check out

0:35:10.160 --> 0:35:12.399
<v Speaker 6>that article. It's the big take. Definitely check that out.

0:35:12.680 --> 0:35:14.759
<v Speaker 6>It is definitely worth reading. If you have a kid,

0:35:14.840 --> 0:35:17.840
<v Speaker 6>or any grandkids or anything. It is worth talking about.

0:35:18.000 --> 0:35:19.160
<v Speaker 6>This is Bloomberg.

0:35:21.880 --> 0:35:25.800
<v Speaker 2>You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live

0:35:25.880 --> 0:35:29.400
<v Speaker 2>weekdays at ten am Eastern on applecar Play and Android

0:35:29.400 --> 0:35:32.600
<v Speaker 2>Auto with the Bloomberg Business. You can also listen live

0:35:32.680 --> 0:35:35.840
<v Speaker 2>on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just

0:35:35.920 --> 0:35:39.520
<v Speaker 2>Say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

0:35:40.680 --> 0:35:43.719
<v Speaker 3>Let's talk about the food and beverage business a little bit.

0:35:43.800 --> 0:35:47.840
<v Speaker 3>Constellation Brands, there are fifty billion dollar market cap company

0:35:47.880 --> 0:35:51.880
<v Speaker 3>based in Victor, New York, and they reported some numbers

0:35:51.880 --> 0:35:54.040
<v Speaker 3>here today. So let's break it down with Ken Shay

0:35:54.200 --> 0:35:59.319
<v Speaker 3>Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Consumer products analyst. Ken remind everybody what

0:35:59.520 --> 0:36:01.920
<v Speaker 3>constant relation brands is, what are the big brands that

0:36:01.960 --> 0:36:03.839
<v Speaker 3>they have, and how's business going?

0:36:04.440 --> 0:36:07.200
<v Speaker 8>Yeah, hi, Paul. Well, Constellation Brands is well known for

0:36:07.280 --> 0:36:10.840
<v Speaker 8>its at line of Corona Beers, Nice and increasingly Medello

0:36:11.160 --> 0:36:15.359
<v Speaker 8>part of that family. It also makes Woodbridge Wines, High

0:36:15.360 --> 0:36:19.800
<v Speaker 8>West Whiskey. Pretty much a portfolio of beer, wine and

0:36:19.880 --> 0:36:22.480
<v Speaker 8>spirits brands, but again mostly skewed towards beer.

0:36:23.680 --> 0:36:25.640
<v Speaker 6>So how they do walk us through more stuff?

0:36:26.640 --> 0:36:29.279
<v Speaker 8>So the quarter, you know, I think the backdrop, first

0:36:29.280 --> 0:36:32.640
<v Speaker 8>of all, was for a slow quarter, you know for

0:36:32.800 --> 0:36:37.359
<v Speaker 8>most wine and beer companies right now, and spirits you've

0:36:37.400 --> 0:36:41.920
<v Speaker 8>been given some recent results from Brown, Foreman and Duckcorn portfolio.

0:36:41.960 --> 0:36:45.560
<v Speaker 8>They're a producer of wines. Well they're all saying, you know,

0:36:45.680 --> 0:36:50.480
<v Speaker 8>trade inventory reductions stemming from cooling demand across all alcoholic

0:36:50.560 --> 0:36:53.720
<v Speaker 8>beverages was kind of the backdrop to this earnings report.

0:36:53.760 --> 0:36:56.720
<v Speaker 8>So when it came out, it beat expectations. Beer sales

0:36:56.760 --> 0:37:00.000
<v Speaker 8>were up eleven percent, Whine and spirits were weak. But again,

0:37:00.120 --> 0:37:02.560
<v Speaker 8>this is mostly a beer company, and so that's why

0:37:02.560 --> 0:37:05.239
<v Speaker 8>I was perceived very positively because you know, this was

0:37:06.000 --> 0:37:11.160
<v Speaker 8>a dose of good news and otherwise very cautious market.

0:37:11.400 --> 0:37:13.840
<v Speaker 8>So the company is doing basically what it said it

0:37:13.840 --> 0:37:16.560
<v Speaker 8>would do. You know, it had good results for beer,

0:37:17.480 --> 0:37:21.839
<v Speaker 8>it reduced debt some more, it's committed to expanding its

0:37:21.880 --> 0:37:26.320
<v Speaker 8>big brewery operations down in Mexico, increased the dividend thirteen percent.

0:37:26.840 --> 0:37:28.880
<v Speaker 8>So from a shareholder point of view, they're doing the

0:37:28.920 --> 0:37:33.120
<v Speaker 8>things they said they would do, and the beer results

0:37:33.200 --> 0:37:36.120
<v Speaker 8>beat expectations, and I gave the market a dosa good

0:37:36.200 --> 0:37:36.760
<v Speaker 8>news today.

0:37:37.760 --> 0:37:40.520
<v Speaker 3>Stop getting a fifty two week high today, up about

0:37:40.719 --> 0:37:43.839
<v Speaker 3>ten point six percent year to date, up about nineteen percent.

0:37:43.680 --> 0:37:46.239
<v Speaker 4>Over the past twelve months. What's the growth story here?

0:37:47.160 --> 0:37:49.799
<v Speaker 3>I guess let's go go another way. What's Constellation saying

0:37:49.800 --> 0:37:50.479
<v Speaker 3>about the.

0:37:50.360 --> 0:37:51.680
<v Speaker 4>Consumer in general?

0:37:52.719 --> 0:37:54.200
<v Speaker 3>Because you know, there's a lot of concern out there

0:37:54.200 --> 0:37:56.239
<v Speaker 3>as we look at some of the big data coming

0:37:56.239 --> 0:37:59.719
<v Speaker 3>out of Washington, DC about the consumers, is inflation and

0:37:59.760 --> 0:38:00.600
<v Speaker 3>all that type of stuff.

0:38:00.680 --> 0:38:04.800
<v Speaker 4>What do they sing, Well, they look at the paper.

0:38:04.800 --> 0:38:07.879
<v Speaker 8>Also, they understand, you know, the environment that they're in

0:38:07.960 --> 0:38:11.520
<v Speaker 8>that the consumer has definitely turned a little cautious here

0:38:11.960 --> 0:38:14.640
<v Speaker 8>towards purchases that they can differ. I guess that's the

0:38:14.400 --> 0:38:17.440
<v Speaker 8>best way to put it. You know, beer is you know,

0:38:17.440 --> 0:38:22.360
<v Speaker 8>a roughtively low price point product visa the wine and spirits.

0:38:22.400 --> 0:38:24.200
<v Speaker 8>You know, a high end bottle of wine or high

0:38:24.239 --> 0:38:26.120
<v Speaker 8>end bottle of bourbon you can maybe put off for

0:38:26.160 --> 0:38:28.319
<v Speaker 8>a while, but you know, a bottle of beer or

0:38:28.320 --> 0:38:31.160
<v Speaker 8>even a six pack whatever, you're not as prone to

0:38:31.160 --> 0:38:34.719
<v Speaker 8>do that. Even though Corona Medelic you know, command a

0:38:34.800 --> 0:38:38.080
<v Speaker 8>very premium price. It's a premium product. So they're aware

0:38:38.160 --> 0:38:40.279
<v Speaker 8>that they can't just keep you know, tacking on big

0:38:40.320 --> 0:38:44.399
<v Speaker 8>price increases. They're aware of what's going on, but they

0:38:44.440 --> 0:38:47.399
<v Speaker 8>see the consumer is resilient, particularly for beer right now.

0:38:47.760 --> 0:38:49.440
<v Speaker 6>So Ken, when we get you on, we like to

0:38:49.440 --> 0:38:51.000
<v Speaker 6>talk about all the things, and one of the things

0:38:51.000 --> 0:38:53.680
<v Speaker 6>we like talk about is weed. Because you walk on

0:38:53.760 --> 0:38:56.239
<v Speaker 6>the street in New York City you get the wafting.

0:38:56.680 --> 0:38:58.000
<v Speaker 6>I mean, I think it smells.

0:38:57.640 --> 0:39:01.239
<v Speaker 4>Good right Well, the clar fathers that Ken covers the cannabis,

0:39:02.160 --> 0:39:07.399
<v Speaker 4>it's not that he's right, I.

0:39:07.360 --> 0:39:10.480
<v Speaker 6>Did not frame this correctly. Ken. You're an analyst that

0:39:10.520 --> 0:39:13.040
<v Speaker 6>also covers the cannabis stocks. When I walk around in

0:39:13.080 --> 0:39:15.480
<v Speaker 6>New York City, I smell a lot of cannabis products.

0:39:16.080 --> 0:39:19.399
<v Speaker 6>How are these companies actually doing well?

0:39:19.400 --> 0:39:22.680
<v Speaker 8>Alex are doing pretty well from a sales point of view,

0:39:23.360 --> 0:39:26.640
<v Speaker 8>from an ibada point of view, but you know that

0:39:27.160 --> 0:39:31.600
<v Speaker 8>the taxation on cannabis companies is so onerous and a

0:39:31.600 --> 0:39:34.040
<v Speaker 8>lot of not very many are profitable from a gap

0:39:34.040 --> 0:39:37.160
<v Speaker 8>accounting point of view. So if you're if you're an

0:39:37.160 --> 0:39:39.800
<v Speaker 8>investor in this market, you certainly have to be patient.

0:39:40.200 --> 0:39:44.280
<v Speaker 8>And that's because you need some help from regulators from Washington,

0:39:45.080 --> 0:39:48.760
<v Speaker 8>whether it's a reclassification from you know, a prohibited drug

0:39:48.840 --> 0:39:53.799
<v Speaker 8>like marijuana is considered today, or it's outright legalization in

0:39:53.880 --> 0:39:56.480
<v Speaker 8>some states and so on. So you need some help

0:39:56.520 --> 0:39:59.560
<v Speaker 8>from regulators to keep this thing going. So it's going

0:39:59.560 --> 0:40:02.399
<v Speaker 8>at a mod Sales are from an industry point of view,

0:40:02.440 --> 0:40:07.200
<v Speaker 8>are moving positively. As more states legalized, you know, Florida,

0:40:07.200 --> 0:40:08.520
<v Speaker 8>it's going to be on the bal foarda as they

0:40:08.719 --> 0:40:11.239
<v Speaker 8>could be a you know, a six billion dollars legal market,

0:40:11.360 --> 0:40:14.400
<v Speaker 8>or about three times the size that it is now in

0:40:14.440 --> 0:40:19.680
<v Speaker 8>a very short order if in November voters approve, you know,

0:40:19.760 --> 0:40:24.360
<v Speaker 8>a legalization for adult use in November. So it's moving positively,

0:40:24.400 --> 0:40:26.759
<v Speaker 8>but again from an accounting point of view, you know,

0:40:26.840 --> 0:40:28.320
<v Speaker 8>it's not looking as rosy.

0:40:28.560 --> 0:40:29.000
<v Speaker 4>So what's this.

0:40:29.320 --> 0:40:32.479
<v Speaker 3>You cover a lot of the consumer companies that can

0:40:32.520 --> 0:40:35.520
<v Speaker 3>from the beverage companies to the beer companies and packaged goods.

0:40:35.719 --> 0:40:38.120
<v Speaker 3>What's the sector that's that's doing the best year? Where's

0:40:38.120 --> 0:40:39.960
<v Speaker 3>the most investor interest?

0:40:40.000 --> 0:40:40.520
<v Speaker 4>These days?

0:40:41.560 --> 0:40:44.759
<v Speaker 8>You don't go to a soft drinks, non alcoholic soft drinks,

0:40:44.840 --> 0:40:49.000
<v Speaker 8>Coca Cola, PepsiCo, you know, care Doctor Pepper, Celsius Energy.

0:40:50.040 --> 0:40:53.440
<v Speaker 8>You know, people love their soft drinks and it's a

0:40:53.560 --> 0:40:57.239
<v Speaker 8>very very resilient market. It's doing well, whether it's it's

0:40:57.280 --> 0:41:01.080
<v Speaker 8>a food service or it's you know, take home for

0:41:01.760 --> 0:41:06.400
<v Speaker 8>home consumption doing very well. And that's what the pricing

0:41:06.480 --> 0:41:10.720
<v Speaker 8>power is that you know, you're looking at categories like energy.

0:41:10.840 --> 0:41:13.120
<v Speaker 8>Energy is no longer in an upstart category. It's a

0:41:13.160 --> 0:41:16.120
<v Speaker 8>twenty billion dollar account. It's a big category, right, but

0:41:16.200 --> 0:41:19.959
<v Speaker 8>it's still growing at high single digit rates and it's

0:41:20.160 --> 0:41:24.680
<v Speaker 8>no sign of slowing down. Even the soft drink of

0:41:24.760 --> 0:41:28.640
<v Speaker 8>the carbonated beverages you know, Coke, Pepsi, the products has

0:41:28.680 --> 0:41:31.960
<v Speaker 8>been around a long time. I think they're discovering that

0:41:32.160 --> 0:41:35.600
<v Speaker 8>maybe they were underpriced for a long time because they've

0:41:35.600 --> 0:41:38.040
<v Speaker 8>been taking pricing up for a while. Consumers are not

0:41:38.120 --> 0:41:40.319
<v Speaker 8>bulking at all. As a matter of fact, those mini

0:41:40.400 --> 0:41:44.600
<v Speaker 8>cans have far higher unit prices than the regular size

0:41:44.719 --> 0:41:46.160
<v Speaker 8>and consumers love them.

0:41:46.400 --> 0:41:46.799
<v Speaker 4>I like that.

0:41:46.880 --> 0:41:48.879
<v Speaker 8>So that's an area of particular strength right now.

0:41:49.280 --> 0:41:51.839
<v Speaker 6>Yeah, cans nice and get flat if you don't drink

0:41:51.880 --> 0:41:55.719
<v Speaker 6>the whole thing before, you know, can the non alcoholic

0:41:56.239 --> 0:42:00.320
<v Speaker 6>spirit thing? Does that have real legs? John tuckerdo's anything?

0:42:00.440 --> 0:42:01.719
<v Speaker 6>Only a minute?

0:42:03.320 --> 0:42:07.880
<v Speaker 8>Uh? I think it does, you know to a small audience.

0:42:07.920 --> 0:42:10.840
<v Speaker 8>I mean this is this reminds me of the the

0:42:10.880 --> 0:42:14.319
<v Speaker 8>liquid death water. You know, it's basically spring water and

0:42:14.360 --> 0:42:17.279
<v Speaker 8>it can it's called liquid death. People like to act

0:42:17.360 --> 0:42:19.719
<v Speaker 8>like beer or not act, but they like to be

0:42:19.800 --> 0:42:23.560
<v Speaker 8>social at parties, and you know, it's a certain vibe

0:42:23.560 --> 0:42:25.920
<v Speaker 8>that's given off if you're drinking a bottle of you know,

0:42:26.160 --> 0:42:29.840
<v Speaker 8>plane bottle of water as opposed to something that looks

0:42:29.840 --> 0:42:33.800
<v Speaker 8>cool liquid death, even though it's buying largest same ingredients

0:42:33.800 --> 0:42:37.080
<v Speaker 8>inside so same. It could be suf of non alcoholic

0:42:37.160 --> 0:42:40.360
<v Speaker 8>beverages may make a little joke of this, but I

0:42:40.440 --> 0:42:44.759
<v Speaker 8>think I think younger demographics tend not to imbibe in

0:42:44.840 --> 0:42:49.399
<v Speaker 8>alcohol as much as you know, uh maybe my generation did,

0:42:50.080 --> 0:42:52.359
<v Speaker 8>and I think that's part of the attraction as well.

0:42:52.400 --> 0:42:53.960
<v Speaker 6>All Right, KEM, we gotta leave it there. Thanks a lot,

0:42:54.000 --> 0:42:58.240
<v Speaker 6>Ken Shay, Bloomberg Intelligence, Senior Consumer Products Analyst. I tried

0:42:58.280 --> 0:43:00.480
<v Speaker 6>all that stuff because I don't really drink that much anymore.

0:43:00.520 --> 0:43:02.120
<v Speaker 6>And then I'm like, why I just drink juice and

0:43:02.280 --> 0:43:02.840
<v Speaker 6>all that sugar.

0:43:02.880 --> 0:43:08.600
<v Speaker 2>Anyway, Anyway, this is the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast, available on Apples, Spotify,

0:43:08.800 --> 0:43:12.440
<v Speaker 2>and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday,

0:43:12.560 --> 0:43:15.560
<v Speaker 2>ten am to noon Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the

0:43:15.640 --> 0:43:19.080
<v Speaker 2>iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You

0:43:19.120 --> 0:43:22.319
<v Speaker 2>can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and

0:43:22.480 --> 0:43:24.120
<v Speaker 2>always on the Bloomberg terminal.