WEBVTT - Ep 164 Rift Valley Fever: Ruminating on ruminants

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<v Speaker 1>A pathologist RS, aged thirty years, had been working with

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<v Speaker 1>rift Valley fever virus for several weeks before the onset

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<v Speaker 1>of his illness. On the evening of December twenty second,

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<v Speaker 1>nineteen thirty two, he felt chilly while walking home and

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<v Speaker 1>complained that his eyes and the calves of his legs

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<v Speaker 1>ached during the night. His rest was disturbed by general

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<v Speaker 1>malaise and pains, especially around the knees and hips. On

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<v Speaker 1>awakening the second day of illness, his temperature was one

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<v Speaker 1>oh one fahrenheit. He attempted to continue his work, but

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<v Speaker 1>had several chills during the day and felt so miserable

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<v Speaker 1>that he took to bed. He complained at this time

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<v Speaker 1>of a vague soreness over his abdmen, constant dull headache,

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<v Speaker 1>and pain behind the eyes associated with slight photophobia. There

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<v Speaker 1>was no sore throat, rhinitis, nausea, or vomiting. He was

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<v Speaker 1>admitted to the hospital of the Rockefeller Institute twenty four

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<v Speaker 1>hours after the onset of symptoms. On admission, the temperature

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<v Speaker 1>was one o two point six fahrenheit pulse respirations twenty four.

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<v Speaker 1>The patient was definitely prostrated by his illness, but rational

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<v Speaker 1>and cooperative. The throat culture was negative for hemolytics streptococcie

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<v Speaker 1>and influenza bacille, and blood cultures in infusion broth remained sterile.

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<v Speaker 1>A tentative diagnosis of riffelly fever or influenza was made.

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<v Speaker 1>In an attempt to confirm the tentative diagnosis of riffelly fever,

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<v Speaker 1>six ce seeds of the patient's blood was injected into

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<v Speaker 1>six mice. All of the mice died within forty eight hours.

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<v Speaker 1>Almost immediately after admission, the patient began to improve. The temperature,

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<v Speaker 1>which reached a peak of one oh three point eight

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<v Speaker 1>fahrenheit on the night of admission, fell promptly to normal

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<v Speaker 1>within twenty four hours. The symptoms, however, abated somewhat less rapidly.

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<v Speaker 1>By the twelfth day of illness, the patient had improved

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<v Speaker 1>to such an extent that he was allowed to sit

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<v Speaker 1>in a chair for a short time, and on the

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<v Speaker 1>following day was permitted to walk a short distance. On

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<v Speaker 1>the evening of the sixteenth day, however, he complained of

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<v Speaker 1>pain in the life left leg. The patient was returned

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<v Speaker 1>to bed and the leg was immobilized in an elevated position.

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<v Speaker 1>Four days later, twentieth day of illness, the patient awakened

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<v Speaker 1>with pain in the right chest, which was more pronounced

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<v Speaker 1>during deep inspiration or exhalation. In the X ray photograph

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<v Speaker 1>made at this time, there was a distinct shadow at

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<v Speaker 1>the base of the right lung. On several occasions, blood

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<v Speaker 1>was expectorated in small amounts. On the thirty eighth day

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<v Speaker 1>of illness, recovery seemed to be proceeding uneventfully. On the

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<v Speaker 1>morning of the forty fifth day of illness, however, the

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<v Speaker 1>patient suddenly collapsed and died within a few minutes. Death

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<v Speaker 1>was apparently due to a large embelis in the pulmonary vessels.

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<v Speaker 1>That's a tough, tough story, yeah, and what a rollercoaster too,

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<v Speaker 1>really is like you have no idea where it's going

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<v Speaker 1>to go until you're there.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah. I don't know anything about the path of physiology

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<v Speaker 2>of rift valley fever, so I'm very curious to know

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<v Speaker 2>how well this fits in with like the clinical picture

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<v Speaker 2>that has been seen, you know, not super well but interesting.

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<v Speaker 1>But I can see how these things ended up happening,

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<v Speaker 1>So we can when we talk at the pathology, we

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<v Speaker 1>can kind of tie back into it.

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<v Speaker 2>Okay, So that first hand account was from a paper

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<v Speaker 2>by Schwenker and Rivers from nineteen thirty four titled Rift

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<v Speaker 2>Valley Fever in Man Report of a fatal laboratory infection

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<v Speaker 2>complicated by thrombo phlebitis. And this actually is the first

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<v Speaker 2>recorded death due to Rift Valley fever. Oh interesting, I

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<v Speaker 2>mean likely not the first death right humans, but the

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<v Speaker 2>first recorded human death detailed recorded. Huh. Yeah. Hi. I'm

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<v Speaker 2>Aaron Welsh and I'm Erin Alman Updike, and this is

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<v Speaker 2>this podcast Will Kill You, And today we're talking about

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<v Speaker 2>Rift Valley fever. We've had a lot of.

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<v Speaker 1>Requests for this one, which I feel like is surprising

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<v Speaker 1>because I knew almost nothing about it except I had

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<v Speaker 1>heard there is Rift Valley fever, like I knew that

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<v Speaker 1>it existed. I knew it was mosquito born. That's all

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<v Speaker 1>I knew.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I say, I was like, oh, this is a

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<v Speaker 2>dangerous virus. But I didn't really know much more than that.

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<v Speaker 2>And I was kind of shocked when I got into

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<v Speaker 2>the history of outbreaks.

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<v Speaker 1>I am shocked at how little I knew, considering like

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<v Speaker 1>that we were deep in disease ecology for so long.

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<v Speaker 2>Oh yeah, I mean I still I would like flip

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<v Speaker 2>through parasite books for fun. Yeah. Yeah, somehow just goes

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<v Speaker 2>to show that there is no limit to the number

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<v Speaker 2>of diseases and viruses and pathogens and parasites and fungi

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<v Speaker 2>out there.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, it's true. So with Valley fever is the one

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<v Speaker 1>we're talking about today, but before we can tell you

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<v Speaker 1>all about it and all the things that we learned,

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<v Speaker 1>it's quarantine anytime.

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<v Speaker 2>It is aaron. What are we drinking this week?

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<v Speaker 1>We're drinking wolf in sheep's clothing.

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<v Speaker 2>It'll make sense, it'll make sense. Sheep are involved. Wolf

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<v Speaker 2>is the virus. I love to over explain a joke.

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<v Speaker 2>It's well, we went back and forth by text. The

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<v Speaker 2>wolf is the virus. The virus is the wolf. Yes, okay,

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<v Speaker 2>that's a great name. What's in a wolf in sheep's clothing?

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<v Speaker 2>A wolf in sheep's clothing is your basic concoction of mescal,

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<v Speaker 2>grapefruit juice, a lemon lime soda of your choice, and

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<v Speaker 2>you know, maybe a squirt of lime or something.

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<v Speaker 1>And some halpinios write a little spicy mescal paloma.

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<v Speaker 2>Yes, situationial the crucial muddled jalapenios, and we'll.

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<v Speaker 1>Post the full recipe for that quarantini as well as

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<v Speaker 1>the non alcoholic equally delicious plusy burrita on our website

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<v Speaker 1>This Podcast will kill You dot Com and all of

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<v Speaker 1>our socials, So if you're not already following us, you

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<v Speaker 1>should because the picks are delicious.

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<v Speaker 2>On our website This Podcast will Kill You dot Com,

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<v Speaker 2>there too.

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<v Speaker 1>There's so much this podcast. Okay, dot com check it out. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>if you haven't already, please check your podcast and make

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<v Speaker 1>sure you're subscribed. If you haven't left us a review

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<v Speaker 1>or a rating and you'd like to, now's your opportunity.

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<v Speaker 2>You can do that right.

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<v Speaker 1>Now, And we would so appreciate it. We would really

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<v Speaker 1>love it. It really helps the show, So thank you.

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<v Speaker 2>She's not lying, she's totally right. We appreciate it and

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<v Speaker 2>it helps us. Well, then shall we get into this virus.

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<v Speaker 2>Let's do it. Let's take a quick break and begin.

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<v Speaker 1>I think part of what surprised me about how little

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<v Speaker 1>I knew about Rift Valley fever is how much of

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<v Speaker 1>a classic TPWKY story it really is. Yeah, I know

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<v Speaker 1>that we are getting back to the roots of this

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<v Speaker 1>podcast when I can go on the World Health Organization's

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<v Speaker 1>website and find so much of the information that I'm

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<v Speaker 1>looking for, and even more so when there's a page

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<v Speaker 1>on the World Organization for Animal Health website.

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<v Speaker 2>So buckle up.

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<v Speaker 1>This is a really classic piece of TPWKY content. So

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<v Speaker 1>Rift Valley fever is a disease that's caused by a

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<v Speaker 1>virus called Rift Valley fever virus.

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<v Speaker 2>It's not very creative.

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<v Speaker 1>And this is an RNA virus in the genus flebovirus.

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<v Speaker 2>I think that's how you say it.

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<v Speaker 1>And I think that the phylogeny of this group viruses

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<v Speaker 1>has changed relatively recently, But in any case, it's in

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<v Speaker 1>the order Bunia viralus, which is the same group that

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<v Speaker 1>includes hantaviruses and loss of fever virus and some others

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<v Speaker 1>that we haven't yet covered.

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<v Speaker 2>Have we done loss of fever.

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<v Speaker 1>Er No, we haven't done loss of fever. But maybe

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<v Speaker 1>people have heard of los of fever. I know, we

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<v Speaker 1>haven't done it. Wow, Okay, there's aaron. There's so many

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<v Speaker 1>that we haven't done yet. Yeah, but hantaviruses we have.

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<v Speaker 1>And with the exception really of the hantaviruses and loss

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<v Speaker 1>of fever and other arenaviruses, most all of the other

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<v Speaker 1>viruses in this order Bunia viralis are transmitted primarily by

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<v Speaker 1>arthropod vectors like ticks and mosquitoes, and rift Vali fever

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<v Speaker 1>virus is no exception asterisk, but let's talk about it.

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<v Speaker 1>So rift valley fever in humans is really considered a

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<v Speaker 1>zoonotic disease, which means that primarily it's not affecting humans,

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<v Speaker 1>it's infecting animals, and it's generally considered to be only

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<v Speaker 1>these spillover events that end up causing disease in humans.

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<v Speaker 1>So there has to generally be some kind of animal outbreak,

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<v Speaker 1>which we call an epizootic before there is then a

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<v Speaker 1>human outbreak. And this virus infects a pretty wide variety

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<v Speaker 1>of animals, and the ones that end up being most

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<v Speaker 1>important for us as humans are our livestock. So this

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<v Speaker 1>virus infects cattle, sheep, goats, and other small ruminants and

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<v Speaker 1>camels and sheep and goats tend to be the most

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<v Speaker 1>severely affected. And it's transmitted to these livestock primarily by mosquitoes,

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<v Speaker 1>but not just any one mosquito, no, no, no, whole

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<v Speaker 1>bunches of mosquitoes in multiple different genera, mostly transmitted by

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<v Speaker 1>eighties mosquitoes of dengey fever, yellow fever chickengunyet like all

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<v Speaker 1>the viruses eighties mosquitoes as well as a qlex mosquitoes

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<v Speaker 1>of like West Nile virus and Japanese encephalitis virus fame.

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<v Speaker 2>It's so strange because usually viruses are so hyper adapted

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<v Speaker 2>to their mosquito vector hosts, like that specific species. But

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<v Speaker 2>this isn't. So What's how.

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<v Speaker 1>I have so many questions, Aaron, about the path of

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<v Speaker 1>physiology or the like the life cycle of this virus

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<v Speaker 1>in mosquitoes because it it doesn't We don't have as

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<v Speaker 1>much information as I expect, Okay, and it's really interesting.

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<v Speaker 1>So there's at least like fifty different species of mosquito

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<v Speaker 1>that have been found to harbor this virus, and the

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<v Speaker 1>transmission is like usually when we picture like a transmission

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<v Speaker 1>cycle among let's say you know vector host, maybe there's

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<v Speaker 1>a secondary host. It's like a circ goal, right, the

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<v Speaker 1>transmission of this virus. When you look at this cycle,

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<v Speaker 1>it's not a circle. It's like a circle with a

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<v Speaker 1>line and another line and like two other branches.

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<v Speaker 2>It's get the mess create a peometry.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, so how does it go?

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<v Speaker 2>Really?

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<v Speaker 1>Usually when we're covering a vector borne disease on this podcast,

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<v Speaker 1>I can start like this, and I'll start like this

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<v Speaker 1>for this episode. Ready, a female mosquito, it's always a

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<v Speaker 1>female mosquito takes a blood meal from a host, let's

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<v Speaker 1>call it a sheep for accuracy. It drinks up some

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<v Speaker 1>of the virus in that blood meal because the sheep

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<v Speaker 1>is infected. And after some amount of time in the

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<v Speaker 1>mosquito and varying amounts of this virus moving through the mosquito,

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<v Speaker 1>it maybe makes it to the salivary glands or something

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<v Speaker 1>like that, and then that mosquito takes another blood meal,

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<v Speaker 1>spits the virus into the host, and boom, Now you've

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<v Speaker 1>completed the transmission cycle. And cycle can happen in Withfalley fever.

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<v Speaker 1>But how long does it have to exist in the mosquito?

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<v Speaker 1>How long does this virus have to be there?

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<v Speaker 2>I don't know.

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<v Speaker 1>What does it do inside this mosquito?

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<v Speaker 2>I don't know.

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<v Speaker 1>Where does it go? Does it travel to the salivary

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<v Speaker 1>glands or does it not?

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<v Speaker 2>I don't know. I don't know, Aaron, Okay, and I

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<v Speaker 2>anticipate that the answer to this question is I don't know,

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<v Speaker 2>but huh. Our different mosquito species differently capable of harboring

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<v Speaker 2>transmitting the.

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<v Speaker 1>Virus almost certainly yes, which one's more likely than less?

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<v Speaker 2>I don't know. Here's where we.

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<v Speaker 1>Can add another layer of complication. In addition to that

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<v Speaker 1>transmission cycle, this virus can also be and is known

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<v Speaker 1>to be, transmitted from female mosquitos into their eggs. This

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<v Speaker 1>is called vertical transmission, and we know this happens at

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<v Speaker 1>least in some way species of eighties mosquitoes, but maybe

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<v Speaker 1>not in all species.

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<v Speaker 2>We're not sure, which has huge implications for the distribution

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<v Speaker 2>of this virus in the landscape and the potential for

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<v Speaker 2>outbreaks to happen in subsequent years, even outside of like

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<v Speaker 2>big outbreaks like the inter epidemic years or whatever. It

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<v Speaker 2>sure does, Aaron.

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<v Speaker 1>You're one hundred percent right, because it means that Mosquito

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<v Speaker 1>babies are essentially born infected, so they can inject virus

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<v Speaker 1>into their host with the very first blood meal that

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<v Speaker 1>they take. So not only can this virus potentially persist

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<v Speaker 1>like among different seasons without necessarily needing to have reservoir

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<v Speaker 1>hosts that are infected, you also can then have viral

0:14:41.400 --> 0:14:45.239
<v Speaker 1>transmission even if mosquitoes aren't living long enough to transmit

0:14:45.560 --> 0:14:48.320
<v Speaker 1>from animal to animal to animal, because the very first

0:14:48.320 --> 0:14:51.840
<v Speaker 1>blood meal that they take, they can potentially transmit this virus.

0:14:52.280 --> 0:14:56.000
<v Speaker 2>Okay, so here's another question. Though it's not just the mosquito.

0:14:56.400 --> 0:14:59.600
<v Speaker 2>It's not just the mosquitoes. It's not a question.

0:14:59.720 --> 0:15:03.560
<v Speaker 1>But you know where I'm going with that. There's let's

0:15:03.640 --> 0:15:05.640
<v Speaker 1>keep going, shall we. I said that this was a web,

0:15:05.960 --> 0:15:10.160
<v Speaker 1>so we shall continue along this transmission web. Once an

0:15:10.200 --> 0:15:13.480
<v Speaker 1>animal host is infected, and again mostly in this case

0:15:13.480 --> 0:15:18.840
<v Speaker 1>we're talking about livestock, ruminants, sheep, cattle, goats, camels, all

0:15:18.880 --> 0:15:23.880
<v Speaker 1>of these animals also have vertical transmission themselves. So if

0:15:23.880 --> 0:15:27.440
<v Speaker 1>a pregnant animal gets infected from a mosquito, it will

0:15:27.480 --> 0:15:32.320
<v Speaker 1>almost inevitably pass that virus through the placenta to their offspring,

0:15:32.360 --> 0:15:36.320
<v Speaker 1>and this almost always causes spontaneous abortion or pregnancy loss.

0:15:36.840 --> 0:15:41.520
<v Speaker 1>This virus can also be transmitted from mosquitoes to other wildlife,

0:15:41.720 --> 0:15:44.840
<v Speaker 1>and we don't fully understand the whole wildlife cycle.

0:15:44.920 --> 0:15:46.520
<v Speaker 2>That's just like a black box.

0:15:46.560 --> 0:15:48.680
<v Speaker 1>We know that it happens, but we don't know what

0:15:48.840 --> 0:15:52.400
<v Speaker 1>hosts are important. Are they amplifying hosts or are they not,

0:15:52.840 --> 0:15:53.320
<v Speaker 1>et cetera.

0:15:53.520 --> 0:15:54.680
<v Speaker 2>Are they maintenance hosts?

0:15:54.800 --> 0:15:57.160
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, But then we get to humans. How do we

0:15:57.240 --> 0:16:02.520
<v Speaker 1>get infected in this tangled web. Well, it could be

0:16:02.800 --> 0:16:05.400
<v Speaker 1>the same way that our animal friends are getting infected

0:16:05.480 --> 0:16:09.680
<v Speaker 1>via these mosquitoes, But what's far more common is that

0:16:09.840 --> 0:16:16.160
<v Speaker 1>humans are infected from our infected animal friends themselves, either

0:16:16.200 --> 0:16:19.920
<v Speaker 1>from direct contact with something like their blood, their raw milk,

0:16:20.040 --> 0:16:23.560
<v Speaker 1>or other bodily fluids, directly getting into our eyes, mouth

0:16:23.640 --> 0:16:26.920
<v Speaker 1>or other mucous membranes, or through breaks in our skin

0:16:27.400 --> 0:16:30.880
<v Speaker 1>in the process of caring for or slaughtering these animals,

0:16:31.440 --> 0:16:36.640
<v Speaker 1>or from inhaling aerosolized bodily fluids. So it's usually a

0:16:36.720 --> 0:16:41.120
<v Speaker 1>kind of more direct transmission from animal to humans that

0:16:41.240 --> 0:16:44.400
<v Speaker 1>ends up causing disease in humans. And then we as

0:16:44.480 --> 0:16:47.800
<v Speaker 1>humans can also pass this virus through the placenta and

0:16:47.880 --> 0:16:52.320
<v Speaker 1>potentially cause infection in a fetus. The only good thing

0:16:52.840 --> 0:16:57.880
<v Speaker 1>thus far is that horizontal meaning human to human transmission

0:16:58.440 --> 0:17:01.880
<v Speaker 1>has yet to be documented, and the same is true

0:17:01.920 --> 0:17:05.600
<v Speaker 1>for direct transmission from animals to animals like among a herd.

0:17:06.240 --> 0:17:09.120
<v Speaker 1>So then why is it that humans can get infected

0:17:09.119 --> 0:17:09.879
<v Speaker 1>from animals?

0:17:10.200 --> 0:17:10.639
<v Speaker 2>We don't know.

0:17:10.720 --> 0:17:12.440
<v Speaker 1>Is it just because of the ways that we happen

0:17:12.520 --> 0:17:15.640
<v Speaker 1>to be interacting with and handling their tissues and bodily fluids?

0:17:15.680 --> 0:17:16.119
<v Speaker 2>I don't know.

0:17:17.000 --> 0:17:19.360
<v Speaker 1>But that is the like good news that I can

0:17:19.400 --> 0:17:22.080
<v Speaker 1>say about the transmission of this virus.

0:17:22.520 --> 0:17:25.240
<v Speaker 2>Okay, I mean that makes sense because it's not like

0:17:25.280 --> 0:17:28.520
<v Speaker 2>the animals are doing the slaughtering and inhaling the blood.

0:17:28.600 --> 0:17:32.440
<v Speaker 2>It's it's yeah, humans are doing that. Okay. How many

0:17:32.520 --> 0:17:37.439
<v Speaker 2>viral particles ooh? No? Idea great question though, okay, okay?

0:17:37.800 --> 0:17:41.240
<v Speaker 2>And it is through the aerosolization, like, is it also

0:17:41.480 --> 0:17:45.399
<v Speaker 2>contaminated surfaces? Is there? What's the durability of this virus

0:17:45.440 --> 0:17:46.200
<v Speaker 2>in the environment.

0:17:46.520 --> 0:17:48.439
<v Speaker 1>There's so many other questions. I could have tried to

0:17:48.440 --> 0:17:50.000
<v Speaker 1>go down rabbit holes to answer that. I don't have

0:17:50.040 --> 0:17:56.280
<v Speaker 1>the answers for aaron. Yes, so there's differential virulence and

0:17:56.880 --> 0:17:59.600
<v Speaker 1>that's likely due to like like you asked how many

0:17:59.640 --> 0:18:02.359
<v Speaker 1>viral articles does it take and things like that. People

0:18:02.480 --> 0:18:05.600
<v Speaker 1>get more or less sick depending on what route they

0:18:05.600 --> 0:18:08.679
<v Speaker 1>were more likely exposed to, and aerosol transmission seems to

0:18:08.680 --> 0:18:12.120
<v Speaker 1>be the most virulent, so most likely to cause really

0:18:12.160 --> 0:18:15.640
<v Speaker 1>severe disease is when it's you're inhaling it and it's

0:18:15.680 --> 0:18:18.800
<v Speaker 1>going into your mucous membranes that way. The other common

0:18:18.800 --> 0:18:21.240
<v Speaker 1>way that people get infected, and this could be from

0:18:21.280 --> 0:18:25.639
<v Speaker 1>contaminated surfaces, but it's through contact with like broken skin,

0:18:26.200 --> 0:18:28.680
<v Speaker 1>so like you have an injury and blood or something

0:18:28.760 --> 0:18:31.440
<v Speaker 1>like that gets into your bloodstream from that. So those

0:18:31.480 --> 0:18:34.119
<v Speaker 1>are kind of the two most common ways. There have

0:18:34.240 --> 0:18:36.600
<v Speaker 1>been some cases of things like raw milk, which means

0:18:36.600 --> 0:18:39.879
<v Speaker 1>that could be potentially an oral or a GI exposure,

0:18:40.440 --> 0:18:42.360
<v Speaker 1>but we have just less data on that overall.

0:18:42.800 --> 0:19:00.000
<v Speaker 2>Interesting. Okay, yes, this is maybe jumping ahead a little bit,

0:19:00.200 --> 0:19:03.359
<v Speaker 2>but jen in an outbreak where it's not just livestock

0:19:03.440 --> 0:19:08.399
<v Speaker 2>impacted but also humans, is there a any known breakdown

0:19:08.440 --> 0:19:12.760
<v Speaker 2>between how people have gotten exposed, Like what proportion is

0:19:12.840 --> 0:19:15.679
<v Speaker 2>mosquito versus direct contact that kind of thing.

0:19:16.200 --> 0:19:18.760
<v Speaker 1>Of all the outbreaks that we have good data on

0:19:19.440 --> 0:19:24.719
<v Speaker 1>primarily are happening from direct contact with animal fluids. It

0:19:24.800 --> 0:19:29.199
<v Speaker 1>is very likely that mosquito born transmission absolutely plays a

0:19:29.280 --> 0:19:32.639
<v Speaker 1>role in some outbreaks, but it seems that overall across

0:19:32.680 --> 0:19:35.719
<v Speaker 1>the board, it is animal to human transmission that causes

0:19:35.760 --> 0:19:39.080
<v Speaker 1>the vast majority of human cases. Okay, which means that

0:19:39.119 --> 0:19:41.200
<v Speaker 1>the people at highest risk are people who work in

0:19:41.200 --> 0:19:44.920
<v Speaker 1>industries where they are coming into contact with animals. Okay,

0:19:45.600 --> 0:19:48.920
<v Speaker 1>But as I'm sure you know, and we'll probably talk about,

0:19:48.960 --> 0:19:52.240
<v Speaker 1>some of the historic outbreaks have been very large, which

0:19:52.280 --> 0:19:54.760
<v Speaker 1>means that certainly there's other things that are going on,

0:19:54.920 --> 0:19:58.760
<v Speaker 1>and why in those cases did the outbreaks get so big.

0:19:58.880 --> 0:20:02.760
<v Speaker 1>They're presum probably must have been also mosquito borne transmission happening.

0:20:03.960 --> 0:20:06.800
<v Speaker 1>So yes, it definitely can happen. But does it also

0:20:06.840 --> 0:20:09.280
<v Speaker 1>just depend on, like our mosquitos more likely to bite

0:20:09.320 --> 0:20:12.119
<v Speaker 1>humans or to bite animals, and what mosquito species are

0:20:12.160 --> 0:20:15.000
<v Speaker 1>circulating in those regions, because again, this is so many

0:20:15.080 --> 0:20:19.879
<v Speaker 1>different mosquito species. So yeah, there's a lot, there's a

0:20:19.920 --> 0:20:23.240
<v Speaker 1>lot of layers, and we don't have great data on

0:20:23.359 --> 0:20:26.200
<v Speaker 1>a lot of details.

0:20:25.600 --> 0:20:28.960
<v Speaker 2>On a lot of these outbreaks. Yish that we had

0:20:28.960 --> 0:20:31.560
<v Speaker 2>more data. I wish that we had more data. I mean,

0:20:32.040 --> 0:20:33.560
<v Speaker 2>don't we all don't we?

0:20:34.040 --> 0:20:37.840
<v Speaker 1>Yes, we do know some more about like what does

0:20:37.840 --> 0:20:40.320
<v Speaker 1>this disease do, Like what does it look like if

0:20:40.600 --> 0:20:44.119
<v Speaker 1>an animal or if a person gets rifally fever. Unsurprisingly,

0:20:44.359 --> 0:20:46.360
<v Speaker 1>given that this is a virus that infects so many

0:20:46.359 --> 0:20:51.280
<v Speaker 1>different species, it presents very differently across different animals, but

0:20:51.359 --> 0:20:57.160
<v Speaker 1>even within humans it can present very differently across the board. Though,

0:20:57.200 --> 0:21:01.639
<v Speaker 1>we know that there's two main cell types in mammalian

0:21:01.720 --> 0:21:05.880
<v Speaker 1>bodies that this virus is predominantly infecting, and everyone who

0:21:05.920 --> 0:21:08.719
<v Speaker 1>listens to this show is well aware at this point

0:21:08.760 --> 0:21:12.639
<v Speaker 1>that a virus has to infect a host cell in

0:21:12.720 --> 0:21:15.679
<v Speaker 1>order to use our machinery to replicate. So which cells

0:21:15.720 --> 0:21:19.680
<v Speaker 1>it's infecting tend to be really important in what kind

0:21:19.720 --> 0:21:22.800
<v Speaker 1>of symptoms and what kind of disease we see. So

0:21:22.920 --> 0:21:25.280
<v Speaker 1>in the case of rift Valley fever, the two main

0:21:25.400 --> 0:21:29.080
<v Speaker 1>cell types that this virus is infecting are liver cells,

0:21:30.000 --> 0:21:32.480
<v Speaker 1>so we'll talk about what that ends up doing, and

0:21:32.560 --> 0:21:36.400
<v Speaker 1>then monocytes, which are a type of white blood cell.

0:21:36.440 --> 0:21:41.560
<v Speaker 1>And so especially in severe cases, the liver is one

0:21:41.600 --> 0:21:44.439
<v Speaker 1>of the main sites of damage. So what does that

0:21:44.520 --> 0:21:49.359
<v Speaker 1>end up actually looking like If we look at animals Again,

0:21:49.480 --> 0:21:52.000
<v Speaker 1>the symptoms will vary depending on the type of animal

0:21:52.040 --> 0:21:55.360
<v Speaker 1>that's infected, as well as how old that animal is,

0:21:55.520 --> 0:22:01.720
<v Speaker 1>because universally, young animals so fetuses as well as newborn animals,

0:22:01.960 --> 0:22:07.520
<v Speaker 1>are much more severely affected than older animals. But in general,

0:22:07.760 --> 0:22:10.520
<v Speaker 1>in almost all animals that are infected, all of these

0:22:10.560 --> 0:22:14.320
<v Speaker 1>livestock animals, we see things like fever. We'll see the

0:22:14.400 --> 0:22:18.440
<v Speaker 1>animal stop eating, they stop like moving about, They don't

0:22:18.480 --> 0:22:20.560
<v Speaker 1>really like walk around or get up and go around.

0:22:20.840 --> 0:22:25.800
<v Speaker 1>They become really like listless and lethargic. Especially in sheep,

0:22:25.880 --> 0:22:30.240
<v Speaker 1>you might start to see evidence of gi inflammation, abdominal pain,

0:22:30.480 --> 0:22:34.800
<v Speaker 1>bloody diarrhea, and these animals are like visibly in pain

0:22:34.880 --> 0:22:38.720
<v Speaker 1>and uncomfortable. But the way that this virus ends up

0:22:39.040 --> 0:22:44.560
<v Speaker 1>wiping out entire populations of livestock is because it passes

0:22:44.640 --> 0:22:48.480
<v Speaker 1>through the placenta and then causes spontaneous abortions in pregnant

0:22:48.480 --> 0:22:53.399
<v Speaker 1>animals and then has massive mortality rates in newborn and

0:22:53.480 --> 0:22:58.200
<v Speaker 1>young animals. So in these livestock herds, especially in lambs

0:22:58.240 --> 0:23:00.680
<v Speaker 1>and kids which are baby goats, the more mentality rate

0:23:00.720 --> 0:23:03.760
<v Speaker 1>can be as high as seventy to one hundred percent.

0:23:04.320 --> 0:23:09.199
<v Speaker 1>It's devastating it's devastating, and even in adult sheep and

0:23:09.240 --> 0:23:12.720
<v Speaker 1>things like baby cows or calves and adult cattle, the

0:23:12.800 --> 0:23:16.520
<v Speaker 1>mortality rates can be as high as twenty to seventy percent.

0:23:16.680 --> 0:23:20.560
<v Speaker 1>So this is a very lethal infection for livestock animals.

0:23:22.119 --> 0:23:26.320
<v Speaker 1>When it comes to humans, there is a really wide

0:23:26.720 --> 0:23:32.120
<v Speaker 1>range of how this disease can present. Most papers across

0:23:32.119 --> 0:23:35.639
<v Speaker 1>the board estimate that about fifty percent of people who

0:23:35.720 --> 0:23:40.320
<v Speaker 1>are infected are essentially asymptomatic, like don't really show any

0:23:40.320 --> 0:23:45.480
<v Speaker 1>symptoms whatsoever. And most people who do have symptoms will

0:23:45.520 --> 0:23:49.959
<v Speaker 1>have a relatively mild disease and only a small percentage

0:23:50.000 --> 0:23:53.880
<v Speaker 1>And most papers say maybe one to two percent develop

0:23:54.080 --> 0:23:57.119
<v Speaker 1>severe symptoms, and we'll talk about what those severe symptoms

0:23:57.200 --> 0:24:02.640
<v Speaker 1>look like. But I want to caveat early on those numbers,

0:24:02.760 --> 0:24:06.719
<v Speaker 1>because a it seems like maybe that one to two

0:24:06.800 --> 0:24:12.080
<v Speaker 1>percent is an underestimate for recent outbreaks or more modern outbreaks,

0:24:13.359 --> 0:24:16.240
<v Speaker 1>And some papers cite this number instead of saying one

0:24:16.280 --> 0:24:18.720
<v Speaker 1>to two percent of all cases, they'll say it's like

0:24:18.800 --> 0:24:22.119
<v Speaker 1>eight to ten percent of symptomatic cases, Okay, And I

0:24:22.160 --> 0:24:25.520
<v Speaker 1>feel like looking at it that way really changes your

0:24:25.560 --> 0:24:29.479
<v Speaker 1>perspective on this disease, because as we'll go through some

0:24:29.480 --> 0:24:33.240
<v Speaker 1>of these symptoms. This can be incredibly terrifying and really severe,

0:24:33.560 --> 0:24:36.560
<v Speaker 1>and so I think trying to understand how big are

0:24:36.600 --> 0:24:38.800
<v Speaker 1>these outbreaks that we're talking about and how many people

0:24:38.840 --> 0:24:42.960
<v Speaker 1>are affected are really really important. So let's talk about

0:24:43.000 --> 0:24:45.320
<v Speaker 1>what it ends up looking like. If somebody is going

0:24:45.359 --> 0:24:47.200
<v Speaker 1>to show symptoms of refali fever.

0:24:48.160 --> 0:24:49.920
<v Speaker 2>Symptoms usually start between.

0:24:49.640 --> 0:24:53.119
<v Speaker 1>Two to six days after exposure, and it usually starts

0:24:53.160 --> 0:24:57.600
<v Speaker 1>as the name suggests, with a fever along with a headache.

0:24:58.000 --> 0:25:01.879
<v Speaker 1>You'll have muscle or joint pain. Very often we see

0:25:01.960 --> 0:25:05.840
<v Speaker 1>some like neurologic symptoms like vertigo or like in the

0:25:05.840 --> 0:25:08.600
<v Speaker 1>first hand account that photophobia.

0:25:08.200 --> 0:25:09.600
<v Speaker 2>Like it hurts to look at light.

0:25:10.000 --> 0:25:14.560
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, you might have nausea or vomiting, and then if

0:25:14.560 --> 0:25:18.080
<v Speaker 1>it remains a mild case, then this might last anywhere

0:25:18.080 --> 0:25:20.639
<v Speaker 1>from like a few days, like four days to a

0:25:20.680 --> 0:25:23.919
<v Speaker 1>week or so, and then often that person will get better.

0:25:24.840 --> 0:25:27.480
<v Speaker 1>Sometimes it's not uncommon that people will have like a

0:25:27.560 --> 0:25:30.800
<v Speaker 1>bi phasic illness, which means they'll get better, and then

0:25:30.880 --> 0:25:33.280
<v Speaker 1>a couple of days later, their fever will spike again

0:25:33.359 --> 0:25:35.800
<v Speaker 1>and they'll get sick for another few days before they

0:25:35.880 --> 0:25:40.919
<v Speaker 1>improve for good. But there are several ways, three different

0:25:40.960 --> 0:25:45.080
<v Speaker 1>ways really that this can cause a much more severe illness.

0:25:45.760 --> 0:25:46.719
<v Speaker 2>Here's the three ways.

0:25:46.800 --> 0:25:50.440
<v Speaker 1>It can infect your eye, it can infect your brain

0:25:50.600 --> 0:25:54.600
<v Speaker 1>and spinal cord, or it can destroy your liver, and

0:25:54.640 --> 0:25:56.200
<v Speaker 1>then you have a hemorrhagic illness.

0:25:56.600 --> 0:26:00.000
<v Speaker 2>So let's go through those. And these are not mutually exclusive.

0:26:00.480 --> 0:26:05.399
<v Speaker 1>They're not mutually exclusive, but they're very different, and so

0:26:05.840 --> 0:26:09.359
<v Speaker 1>I don't know how often they happen altogether. Okay, So

0:26:09.480 --> 0:26:13.080
<v Speaker 1>in some people, this virus seems to infect the eye,

0:26:13.200 --> 0:26:15.080
<v Speaker 1>the back of the eye, and it can infect like

0:26:15.119 --> 0:26:18.119
<v Speaker 1>a whole variety of parts of that. It could be

0:26:18.320 --> 0:26:21.360
<v Speaker 1>the retina itself, it could be your nerve in your eye,

0:26:21.440 --> 0:26:24.320
<v Speaker 1>it could be the macula, a whole bunch of different parts.

0:26:24.880 --> 0:26:28.240
<v Speaker 1>And in those cases that person might have had the

0:26:28.280 --> 0:26:32.520
<v Speaker 1>same mild illness that I already described, get better, and

0:26:32.560 --> 0:26:36.879
<v Speaker 1>then a week or several weeks later, they'll start to

0:26:36.920 --> 0:26:41.200
<v Speaker 1>have blurry vision or decreased vision. And then this can

0:26:41.320 --> 0:26:44.879
<v Speaker 1>last a few months or it can end up causing

0:26:45.080 --> 0:26:48.280
<v Speaker 1>permanent damage, depending on which part of the eye ends

0:26:48.359 --> 0:26:52.159
<v Speaker 1>up being infected with this virus. Why the eye, Why

0:26:52.200 --> 0:26:55.080
<v Speaker 1>the eye, I don't know. Is it just an easy

0:26:55.119 --> 0:26:58.280
<v Speaker 1>target there's good blood supply there is it just that

0:26:58.280 --> 0:27:02.919
<v Speaker 1>that's where the virus was close to. I have no idea. Also,

0:27:03.280 --> 0:27:06.879
<v Speaker 1>why is it so long after the initial infection. I

0:27:06.920 --> 0:27:09.399
<v Speaker 1>don't know the specific path of physiology of.

0:27:09.400 --> 0:27:09.879
<v Speaker 2>What's going on.

0:27:11.480 --> 0:27:13.160
<v Speaker 1>But that's not the only way that you can see

0:27:13.160 --> 0:27:17.320
<v Speaker 1>this delayed response. Another way that it could go is

0:27:17.359 --> 0:27:21.320
<v Speaker 1>that again, a few weeks or even months after an

0:27:21.320 --> 0:27:25.720
<v Speaker 1>initial infection, somebody might come down with a severe headache

0:27:26.080 --> 0:27:32.360
<v Speaker 1>and signs of brain inflammation that might look like confusion, disorientation, vertigo,

0:27:33.000 --> 0:27:37.040
<v Speaker 1>even things like hallucinations or loss of memory. And this

0:27:37.119 --> 0:27:42.120
<v Speaker 1>can progress to seizures, coma, and potentially death. And this

0:27:42.320 --> 0:27:46.080
<v Speaker 1>is all a me ninjo encephalitis, So inflammation that's happening

0:27:46.119 --> 0:27:49.040
<v Speaker 1>in the brain and the spinal cord as a result

0:27:49.119 --> 0:27:50.000
<v Speaker 1>of ri Valley fever.

0:27:50.400 --> 0:27:53.720
<v Speaker 2>Okay, And so this is like a consequence. This isn't

0:27:53.760 --> 0:27:58.160
<v Speaker 2>the virus attacking those things necessarily. It's like a consequence

0:27:58.280 --> 0:28:02.200
<v Speaker 2>of our immune responses reaction to the virus.

0:28:02.880 --> 0:28:08.000
<v Speaker 1>I don't know, Aaron, okay, because we know a lot,

0:28:08.040 --> 0:28:10.280
<v Speaker 1>and I'll link to a bunch of specific papers that

0:28:10.320 --> 0:28:15.800
<v Speaker 1>look at like the gross anatomic pathology that's happening in

0:28:15.840 --> 0:28:18.320
<v Speaker 1>these cases. We know that it's a lot of inflammation.

0:28:19.320 --> 0:28:22.399
<v Speaker 1>Is it that virus is laying latent and then reactivating

0:28:22.560 --> 0:28:25.520
<v Speaker 1>and causing this or is it that you're having delayed

0:28:26.080 --> 0:28:29.320
<v Speaker 1>immune reaction to the virus. I am not one hundred

0:28:29.320 --> 0:28:31.400
<v Speaker 1>percent sure from all of my reading, and it could

0:28:31.400 --> 0:28:35.280
<v Speaker 1>be that I'm not interpreting the reading correctly. Given the delay,

0:28:35.359 --> 0:28:38.960
<v Speaker 1>it seems more likely that it's an inflammatory reaction, like

0:28:39.000 --> 0:28:42.560
<v Speaker 1>an immune response, But it's a little bit unclear to

0:28:42.600 --> 0:28:44.440
<v Speaker 1>me from all of the reading that I did.

0:28:44.720 --> 0:28:47.120
<v Speaker 2>Well, and I will say too in that first hand account,

0:28:47.160 --> 0:28:49.640
<v Speaker 2>they talked about how as this person you know, seemed

0:28:49.640 --> 0:28:52.120
<v Speaker 2>to get better and then got worse and worse, and

0:28:52.160 --> 0:28:56.000
<v Speaker 2>then got better again and then worse later on, they retested,

0:28:56.080 --> 0:28:58.960
<v Speaker 2>they retook blood and re injected it into mice to

0:28:59.000 --> 0:29:02.880
<v Speaker 2>see is this still rift valley fever and the mice refine.

0:29:03.120 --> 0:29:07.040
<v Speaker 1>Okay, interesting, So that suggests that it's more immune mediated.

0:29:07.440 --> 0:29:10.400
<v Speaker 2>I mean pay Pers nineteen thirty four, like yeah, but

0:29:10.480 --> 0:29:11.560
<v Speaker 2>still but still.

0:29:11.840 --> 0:29:14.440
<v Speaker 1>And just timing wise, that's sort of what it seems

0:29:14.520 --> 0:29:19.160
<v Speaker 1>like right right. This kind of neurologic disease, when it happens,

0:29:19.320 --> 0:29:26.400
<v Speaker 1>can cause long term neurologic complications, and some sources suggest

0:29:26.440 --> 0:29:28.960
<v Speaker 1>that it doesn't tend to cause death, But there was

0:29:29.000 --> 0:29:32.000
<v Speaker 1>an outbreak in Saudi Arabia in the early two thousands

0:29:32.240 --> 0:29:34.920
<v Speaker 1>which like fifty percent of people that ended up having

0:29:34.920 --> 0:29:38.719
<v Speaker 1>neurologic complications died from that. So I don't think it's

0:29:38.840 --> 0:29:41.520
<v Speaker 1>entirely accurate to say that you would never have death

0:29:41.560 --> 0:29:45.040
<v Speaker 1>as a result of this type of neurologic manifestation of

0:29:45.120 --> 0:29:48.200
<v Speaker 1>Rift Valley fever. Yeah, but it's less common than the

0:29:48.200 --> 0:29:51.840
<v Speaker 1>final manifestation, which is the most severe, and that is

0:29:51.880 --> 0:29:56.000
<v Speaker 1>when this virus causes a hemorrhagic disease, and it does

0:29:56.040 --> 0:29:58.800
<v Speaker 1>this because of damage to the liver. So the way

0:29:58.840 --> 0:30:02.880
<v Speaker 1>that this might present is that during that acute illness,

0:30:03.240 --> 0:30:06.680
<v Speaker 1>So during that time when someone is sick with a fever, etc.

0:30:07.800 --> 0:30:11.240
<v Speaker 1>Someone might then start to appear jaundiced, so their skin

0:30:11.440 --> 0:30:13.960
<v Speaker 1>or their nails or their eyes are starting to turn yellow,

0:30:14.720 --> 0:30:17.800
<v Speaker 1>and that's a sign of liver damage because that yellowness

0:30:17.840 --> 0:30:20.760
<v Speaker 1>is caused by something called bilirubin building up in your

0:30:20.800 --> 0:30:24.600
<v Speaker 1>skin or your eyes because your liver can't break it

0:30:24.680 --> 0:30:28.680
<v Speaker 1>down into the form that you can excrete. And as

0:30:28.720 --> 0:30:31.800
<v Speaker 1>your liver gets damaged because your liver is also in

0:30:31.880 --> 0:30:35.400
<v Speaker 1>charge of making most all of our clotting factors. Now,

0:30:35.440 --> 0:30:37.800
<v Speaker 1>all of a sudden, your blood can't clot the way

0:30:37.800 --> 0:30:40.640
<v Speaker 1>that it should, so you start to have signs of bleeding.

0:30:40.720 --> 0:30:43.840
<v Speaker 1>And this could be things like large bruises or purpura,

0:30:44.000 --> 0:30:47.280
<v Speaker 1>which are these big, dark purple splotches on the skin

0:30:47.400 --> 0:30:50.280
<v Speaker 1>that are essentially just signs of bleeding. Underneath the skin,

0:30:51.440 --> 0:30:54.200
<v Speaker 1>you might see bleeding from mucus membranes like your nose

0:30:54.320 --> 0:30:58.400
<v Speaker 1>or your gums. You'll see bloody vomiting or diarrhea, really

0:30:58.440 --> 0:31:03.080
<v Speaker 1>heavy menstrual bleeding. If this person is already hospitalized and

0:31:03.120 --> 0:31:05.960
<v Speaker 1>getting poked for things like blood draws or ivs, they'll

0:31:06.000 --> 0:31:10.120
<v Speaker 1>start to have bleeding from these sites of napuncture. And

0:31:10.320 --> 0:31:14.280
<v Speaker 1>this form of hemorrhagic disease is the most severe form.

0:31:14.400 --> 0:31:17.880
<v Speaker 1>About fifty percent of people who develop hemorrhagic disease from

0:31:17.960 --> 0:31:21.040
<v Speaker 1>refelly fever will usually die within three to six days

0:31:21.080 --> 0:31:23.320
<v Speaker 1>of the first sign of these hemorrhagic symptoms.

0:31:24.160 --> 0:31:28.360
<v Speaker 2>Do we know what factors make someone more likely to

0:31:28.480 --> 0:31:32.160
<v Speaker 2>develop the hemorrhagic form, or the ocular form, or the

0:31:32.240 --> 0:31:37.240
<v Speaker 2>neurological form, or be completely asymptomatic. Yeah, it's such a

0:31:37.240 --> 0:31:37.840
<v Speaker 2>good question.

0:31:38.600 --> 0:31:42.320
<v Speaker 1>It's probably similar to different species of animals that we see.

0:31:42.400 --> 0:31:45.400
<v Speaker 1>It likely depends on host factors, right, so like who

0:31:45.520 --> 0:31:48.400
<v Speaker 1>you are and what your immune system does in response

0:31:48.440 --> 0:31:52.160
<v Speaker 1>to this virus, but also things like the root of transmission.

0:31:52.240 --> 0:31:54.960
<v Speaker 1>So overall, like I said, the intr nasal or airborne

0:31:54.960 --> 0:31:58.560
<v Speaker 1>transmission seems to be more likely to cause severe disease

0:31:59.040 --> 0:32:03.320
<v Speaker 1>than in animal models where we've like injected this virus

0:32:03.360 --> 0:32:09.360
<v Speaker 1>into animals. But beyond that, there's like a lot that

0:32:09.440 --> 0:32:12.880
<v Speaker 1>we don't know and don't understand. And again I have

0:32:13.160 --> 0:32:16.000
<v Speaker 1>several papers that go really deep into detail on what

0:32:16.120 --> 0:32:19.240
<v Speaker 1>we do know, which is a lot about like viral

0:32:19.280 --> 0:32:23.000
<v Speaker 1>receptors and the histopathology of like what's happening in your

0:32:23.000 --> 0:32:26.200
<v Speaker 1>liver and what's happening in where in your brain? Is

0:32:26.240 --> 0:32:31.160
<v Speaker 1>there inflammation? But like, how does this actually happen? Why

0:32:31.240 --> 0:32:33.840
<v Speaker 1>are some people so severely affected in others are not?

0:32:34.760 --> 0:32:37.000
<v Speaker 1>I don't have a good answer to that question.

0:32:37.960 --> 0:32:42.160
<v Speaker 2>Okay, Yeah, and you mentioned that the virus can also

0:32:42.200 --> 0:32:47.400
<v Speaker 2>be transmitted from pregnant person to fetus. What does the

0:32:47.440 --> 0:32:49.440
<v Speaker 2>infection look like in that situation?

0:32:49.960 --> 0:32:52.040
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, it depends and we don't have a lot of

0:32:52.120 --> 0:32:55.040
<v Speaker 1>data on this because there haven't been that many well

0:32:55.040 --> 0:32:58.440
<v Speaker 1>documented cases. There's been enough to show that it is

0:32:58.600 --> 0:33:01.160
<v Speaker 1>very likely that this virus can cross the placenta and

0:33:01.200 --> 0:33:04.880
<v Speaker 1>infect a fetus. It can cause, potentially, like it does

0:33:04.880 --> 0:33:09.400
<v Speaker 1>in animals, spontaneous abortion, but again, we haven't seen significant

0:33:09.400 --> 0:33:12.240
<v Speaker 1>increased rates of spontaneous abortion in areas where there have

0:33:12.280 --> 0:33:16.440
<v Speaker 1>been outbreaks, which is good news. But certainly it can

0:33:16.480 --> 0:33:20.360
<v Speaker 1>also then cause infection in a newborn, and because newborns

0:33:20.400 --> 0:33:23.720
<v Speaker 1>have very little immune system, that infection is likely more

0:33:23.800 --> 0:33:26.280
<v Speaker 1>likely to be severe. So there have been cases of

0:33:26.320 --> 0:33:28.200
<v Speaker 1>neonatal deaths from this virus.

0:33:28.720 --> 0:33:31.160
<v Speaker 2>And where do we stand on treatment?

0:33:31.760 --> 0:33:36.720
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, we don't stand Okay, there are no treatments that

0:33:36.760 --> 0:33:40.800
<v Speaker 1>are specific for this virus, which means that there's a

0:33:40.840 --> 0:33:42.960
<v Speaker 1>lot of things that we have to do to try

0:33:42.960 --> 0:33:45.520
<v Speaker 1>and prevent it. So mosquito control is an important part

0:33:45.600 --> 0:33:49.640
<v Speaker 1>of that. Vaccines and there are a couple of different

0:33:49.720 --> 0:33:54.720
<v Speaker 1>vaccines for live stock, no vaccines for humans, but there

0:33:54.720 --> 0:33:58.400
<v Speaker 1>are both like live attenuated vaccines, and there are inactivated

0:33:58.480 --> 0:34:02.120
<v Speaker 1>or killed virus vaccine. Pros and cons to both of those,

0:34:02.720 --> 0:34:05.560
<v Speaker 1>but they both exist and they both can be used both,

0:34:05.640 --> 0:34:08.400
<v Speaker 1>like on a regular basis in endemic areas in livestock

0:34:08.480 --> 0:34:11.760
<v Speaker 1>as well as in the case of outbreaks, at least

0:34:11.760 --> 0:34:16.360
<v Speaker 1>the inactivated form. But yeah, that's rip valley fever.

0:34:16.440 --> 0:34:20.480
<v Speaker 2>It is. It can be a really severe infection.

0:34:21.760 --> 0:34:25.000
<v Speaker 1>And we'll talk more in detail about recent outbreaks that

0:34:25.000 --> 0:34:28.480
<v Speaker 1>have happened, Like why is it so severe sometimes or

0:34:28.680 --> 0:34:29.840
<v Speaker 1>is it getting more severe?

0:34:30.000 --> 0:34:34.080
<v Speaker 2>I don't know, Aaron, that is a great question. It is.

0:34:34.200 --> 0:34:37.319
<v Speaker 1>I still have a question, so, Aarin, when did we

0:34:38.360 --> 0:34:41.480
<v Speaker 1>first find out about this virus? When did it spill

0:34:41.480 --> 0:34:43.000
<v Speaker 1>over from animals to humans?

0:34:43.360 --> 0:34:48.239
<v Speaker 2>What do we know about it? Let me see what

0:34:48.280 --> 0:35:18.240
<v Speaker 2>I can answer right after this break on the surface,

0:35:19.239 --> 0:35:25.480
<v Speaker 2>history and disease ecology seem like two entirely different fields. History,

0:35:25.520 --> 0:35:29.360
<v Speaker 2>of course, deals with past events, especially from a human perspective,

0:35:29.960 --> 0:35:35.160
<v Speaker 2>while disease ecology examines the relationship between a pathogen or pathogens,

0:35:35.560 --> 0:35:39.960
<v Speaker 2>its host or hosts, and the environment. Like what would

0:35:40.040 --> 0:35:42.600
<v Speaker 2>you learn in a history class that would be repeated

0:35:42.640 --> 0:35:46.000
<v Speaker 2>in a class on disease ecology besides the discovery of

0:35:46.040 --> 0:35:49.319
<v Speaker 2>one disease or another. Not a lot, Aaron. That's why

0:35:49.320 --> 0:35:53.640
<v Speaker 2>I love our podcast. We do it. But as I

0:35:53.719 --> 0:35:57.239
<v Speaker 2>was reading about rift valley fever, the first described outbreaks,

0:35:57.280 --> 0:36:00.560
<v Speaker 2>the potential impact of climate change and land you change

0:36:00.560 --> 0:36:04.960
<v Speaker 2>on future outbreaks. I realized how similar the approach that

0:36:05.000 --> 0:36:09.120
<v Speaker 2>these two fields take really is, because it all comes

0:36:09.160 --> 0:36:13.359
<v Speaker 2>down to understanding the context, why did this happen when

0:36:13.360 --> 0:36:16.239
<v Speaker 2>it did? And what can the past tell us about

0:36:16.280 --> 0:36:19.400
<v Speaker 2>the future. Oh love that? Yeah, I know, this is

0:36:19.440 --> 0:36:22.520
<v Speaker 2>my hyper nerd. I was like, whoa dies? Easy? College

0:36:22.640 --> 0:36:28.239
<v Speaker 2>in history the same thing. I finally get why I

0:36:28.320 --> 0:36:33.400
<v Speaker 2>love this. It finally all makes sense. It all makes sense.

0:36:33.960 --> 0:36:36.000
<v Speaker 2>But let's start with the first part of that, the

0:36:36.080 --> 0:36:38.480
<v Speaker 2>why did this happen when it did? Getting at the

0:36:38.600 --> 0:36:43.520
<v Speaker 2>earliest known emergence of rift valley fever. In August of

0:36:43.600 --> 0:36:47.560
<v Speaker 2>nineteen thirteen, the Department of Agriculture of quote unquote British

0:36:47.560 --> 0:36:52.640
<v Speaker 2>East Africa published its annual report on the whole. It's

0:36:52.680 --> 0:36:58.800
<v Speaker 2>some pretty dry reading, crop counts, detailed descriptions of personnel vacations,

0:36:59.280 --> 0:37:04.160
<v Speaker 2>the number of ingoing and outgoing letters for each sub department. Like,

0:37:04.440 --> 0:37:06.560
<v Speaker 2>do you want to know how many letters the Veterinary

0:37:06.600 --> 0:37:10.000
<v Speaker 2>department received and wrote in nineteen thirteen? I actually do.

0:37:10.800 --> 0:37:15.439
<v Speaker 2>It's sixty eight hundred. Wow, it's more than I thought, yeah,

0:37:15.440 --> 0:37:16.400
<v Speaker 2>that seems like a lot.

0:37:16.560 --> 0:37:18.600
<v Speaker 1>I know, they didn't have email, thinking about how many

0:37:18.640 --> 0:37:20.360
<v Speaker 1>emails they probably send now.

0:37:20.120 --> 0:37:23.200
<v Speaker 2>But I know it's kind of I was like, wow,

0:37:23.280 --> 0:37:25.480
<v Speaker 2>that's that's that's a lot. It's a lot. I mean,

0:37:25.560 --> 0:37:28.920
<v Speaker 2>that's a lot of letters. And these reports also included

0:37:29.040 --> 0:37:33.160
<v Speaker 2>casual mentions of land theft and forceful removal under the

0:37:33.200 --> 0:37:37.840
<v Speaker 2>guise of manifest destiny. Ah yeah, right, so quote in

0:37:37.960 --> 0:37:41.040
<v Speaker 2>June nineteen twelve, the removal of the Massai and their

0:37:41.040 --> 0:37:44.040
<v Speaker 2>stock from Lykipia was commenced and was brought to a

0:37:44.080 --> 0:37:48.919
<v Speaker 2>successful conclusion on the twenty seventh of March nineteen thirteen. Wow.

0:37:49.080 --> 0:37:53.840
<v Speaker 1>Imagine just talking about like decimating human populations and forcibly

0:37:53.920 --> 0:37:57.160
<v Speaker 1>removing human beings from their home that way cool.

0:37:57.239 --> 0:38:01.080
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, yeah, I mean, success definitely in the eye of

0:38:01.120 --> 0:38:05.719
<v Speaker 2>the beholder in that successful conclusion, because just for a

0:38:05.719 --> 0:38:09.000
<v Speaker 2>little bit of extra context, this removal broke the nineteen

0:38:09.040 --> 0:38:11.080
<v Speaker 2>oh four promise that the British had made to the

0:38:11.120 --> 0:38:14.520
<v Speaker 2>Massai to stop taking their land, which they ultimately stole

0:38:14.560 --> 0:38:18.960
<v Speaker 2>about seventy percent of to make space for the incoming settlers.

0:38:18.960 --> 0:38:21.080
<v Speaker 2>And they were like, oh, the Lykipia Plateau being at

0:38:21.160 --> 0:38:24.920
<v Speaker 2>higher elevation, it's going to be more hospitable to the

0:38:24.960 --> 0:38:28.080
<v Speaker 2>Europeans that are coming. Like it's it's just all part

0:38:28.080 --> 0:38:28.279
<v Speaker 2>of it.

0:38:28.400 --> 0:38:28.640
<v Speaker 1>Yeah.

0:38:29.160 --> 0:38:34.320
<v Speaker 2>Yeah. But if you keep scrolling past this detached reporting

0:38:34.440 --> 0:38:37.880
<v Speaker 2>of you know, land theft and so on, you'll eventually

0:38:37.920 --> 0:38:42.799
<v Speaker 2>come to a mention of a devastating disease impacting sheep. Quote.

0:38:43.239 --> 0:38:46.640
<v Speaker 2>A mortality of ninety percent was recorded among the lambs

0:38:46.680 --> 0:38:50.520
<v Speaker 2>at government Farm Naivasha. Other farms in the Rift Valley

0:38:50.600 --> 0:38:54.680
<v Speaker 2>also suffered considerable loss. In some cases, the symptoms were

0:38:54.880 --> 0:38:59.040
<v Speaker 2>very acute and death occurred within a few hours. In others,

0:38:59.080 --> 0:39:01.720
<v Speaker 2>the disease ran a more or subacute or chronic course.

0:39:02.080 --> 0:39:05.280
<v Speaker 2>In the acute form, the only symptoms shown were dullness,

0:39:05.440 --> 0:39:10.360
<v Speaker 2>rapid respirations, collapse, and death within four hours. In post mortem,

0:39:10.440 --> 0:39:13.000
<v Speaker 2>the liver was found to be soft and friable and

0:39:13.080 --> 0:39:16.680
<v Speaker 2>the kidneys congested. In the subacute or chronic form, the

0:39:16.760 --> 0:39:20.840
<v Speaker 2>umbilicus was incompletely closed and swelling of the joints occurred.

0:39:21.320 --> 0:39:25.280
<v Speaker 2>Investigation pointed to the disease resulting from infection gaining entrance

0:39:25.320 --> 0:39:30.839
<v Speaker 2>through the umbilicus end quote. Yeah. The sheep that were

0:39:30.840 --> 0:39:35.480
<v Speaker 2>primarily impacted by this disease were marino, which were introduced

0:39:35.600 --> 0:39:40.120
<v Speaker 2>for their wool, but there didn't seem to be much

0:39:40.160 --> 0:39:44.000
<v Speaker 2>follow up or concern about this particular disease, perhaps because

0:39:44.160 --> 0:39:47.800
<v Speaker 2>quote the setback was only a temporary one end quote.

0:39:48.920 --> 0:39:53.120
<v Speaker 2>So this brief mention from nineteen twelve, buried in pages

0:39:53.320 --> 0:39:57.800
<v Speaker 2>upon pages of bureaucratic minutia, stands out as the first

0:39:57.880 --> 0:40:02.360
<v Speaker 2>description of what was likely riffed vlley fever. Yeah, why

0:40:02.400 --> 0:40:04.440
<v Speaker 2>then why nineteen twelve?

0:40:05.040 --> 0:40:07.840
<v Speaker 1>Right? Just because you brought all them sheeps there.

0:40:08.080 --> 0:40:10.160
<v Speaker 2>I mean, that's part of it. But it also does

0:40:10.200 --> 0:40:14.480
<v Speaker 2>seem to impact the native species there as well. So

0:40:14.719 --> 0:40:18.000
<v Speaker 2>maybe it's just visibility, like these marino sheep were more susceptible.

0:40:18.040 --> 0:40:20.640
<v Speaker 2>That's part of it. But I think there are some

0:40:20.719 --> 0:40:25.160
<v Speaker 2>other things going on too. So later genetic analyzes would

0:40:25.200 --> 0:40:28.399
<v Speaker 2>place the origin of the Rift valley fever virus as

0:40:28.480 --> 0:40:33.640
<v Speaker 2>recently as the eighteen eighties to eighteen nineties. What Yeah,

0:40:34.400 --> 0:40:36.440
<v Speaker 2>So it could have just been that this was one

0:40:36.520 --> 0:40:40.880
<v Speaker 2>of the earliest outbreaks that this virus caused. Interesting, So

0:40:41.239 --> 0:40:43.960
<v Speaker 2>where did this virus come from? Great question? I don't know,

0:40:44.760 --> 0:40:49.360
<v Speaker 2>because also viruses do this thing where one strain tends

0:40:49.400 --> 0:40:52.560
<v Speaker 2>to dominate in an outbreak, and it replaces all the

0:40:52.600 --> 0:40:54.799
<v Speaker 2>other strains and kind of makes it look like it's

0:40:54.840 --> 0:40:58.359
<v Speaker 2>the only one. And so this could underestimate how old

0:40:58.360 --> 0:41:01.080
<v Speaker 2>the virus truly is. It is a lot older, but

0:41:01.120 --> 0:41:04.000
<v Speaker 2>it's just sort of doing this whole strain replacement type

0:41:04.040 --> 0:41:08.920
<v Speaker 2>of thing. But regardless of when the virus evolved, it

0:41:09.080 --> 0:41:13.560
<v Speaker 2>likely had caused infections prior to nineteen twelve. And the

0:41:13.600 --> 0:41:17.160
<v Speaker 2>reason though that it was first described then is probably

0:41:17.280 --> 0:41:22.279
<v Speaker 2>because of colonization, right, importing merino sheep, which might be

0:41:22.320 --> 0:41:25.560
<v Speaker 2>more susceptible to the virus as we talked about, But

0:41:25.760 --> 0:41:31.280
<v Speaker 2>also there's the looking for it in these agricultural reports.

0:41:31.280 --> 0:41:34.560
<v Speaker 2>The British were monitoring their investments, seeing how well the

0:41:34.640 --> 0:41:38.279
<v Speaker 2>introduced crops and livestock like marino sheep did on the

0:41:38.360 --> 0:41:41.520
<v Speaker 2>lands that they stole, and noting what diseases posed a

0:41:41.600 --> 0:41:46.000
<v Speaker 2>threat to their income, like rift valley fever. This is

0:41:46.120 --> 0:41:49.719
<v Speaker 2>the reason that tropical medicine was founded as a field

0:41:49.760 --> 0:41:54.520
<v Speaker 2>of study right to better understand, prevent and treat the

0:41:54.520 --> 0:41:59.320
<v Speaker 2>diseases that were prevalent in an area undergoing colonization. The

0:41:59.400 --> 0:42:02.520
<v Speaker 2>chief veteran officer who made the initial report R. J.

0:42:02.719 --> 0:42:07.120
<v Speaker 2>Storty wasn't noting this sheep disease out of academic curiosity,

0:42:07.600 --> 0:42:09.640
<v Speaker 2>but out of a oh, this might be something we

0:42:09.680 --> 0:42:11.719
<v Speaker 2>have to look out for as suttlers set up their

0:42:11.760 --> 0:42:16.480
<v Speaker 2>farms here type of a thing, right, Our E. Montgomery,

0:42:16.840 --> 0:42:19.920
<v Speaker 2>the veterinary pathologists at the time, even signed off his

0:42:20.040 --> 0:42:23.920
<v Speaker 2>report with quote in conclusion, I may add that only

0:42:23.960 --> 0:42:27.760
<v Speaker 2>such diseases as appeared to me to possess considerable interest

0:42:27.840 --> 0:42:30.600
<v Speaker 2>to the stock owner have been dealt with in this report.

0:42:31.120 --> 0:42:33.799
<v Speaker 2>There have been a considerable number of others, which are

0:42:33.840 --> 0:42:37.839
<v Speaker 2>as yet fortunately of minor importance. I consider it our duty,

0:42:38.000 --> 0:42:41.400
<v Speaker 2>so far as possible, to undertake the preliminary investigation of

0:42:41.480 --> 0:42:44.759
<v Speaker 2>all diseases which come within our knowledge, and by doing so,

0:42:44.960 --> 0:42:49.040
<v Speaker 2>to be in some measure prepared for eventualities end quote.

0:42:49.440 --> 0:42:52.920
<v Speaker 2>Science and the questions that we ask in science have

0:42:53.120 --> 0:42:58.080
<v Speaker 2>always been guided by certain values or principles or interests. Yeah,

0:42:58.120 --> 0:43:01.520
<v Speaker 2>and I just I feel like it's that part doesn't

0:43:01.560 --> 0:43:04.880
<v Speaker 2>really get highlighted a whole lot inside. Oh, no, this type.

0:43:04.760 --> 0:43:07.840
<v Speaker 1>Because it is right, Yeah, stories of like discovery for

0:43:07.960 --> 0:43:11.120
<v Speaker 1>discovery's sake, or like this is so cool and interesting,

0:43:11.160 --> 0:43:12.000
<v Speaker 1>And then was used.

0:43:12.000 --> 0:43:13.080
<v Speaker 2>But yeah, no, I mean.

0:43:15.360 --> 0:43:19.759
<v Speaker 1>Much of the time specific things were being studied at

0:43:19.800 --> 0:43:21.000
<v Speaker 1>the bottom line for money.

0:43:21.400 --> 0:43:24.279
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I mean, then the Chief Veterinary Officer for the

0:43:24.280 --> 0:43:28.080
<v Speaker 2>Department of Agriculture wasn't just like screening sheep left and right.

0:43:28.280 --> 0:43:32.520
<v Speaker 2>The more interested in diseases affecting sheep, then the disease

0:43:32.600 --> 0:43:35.600
<v Speaker 2>is affecting wildlife because sheep was where the money was.

0:43:35.680 --> 0:43:39.920
<v Speaker 2>Not wildlife. Okay, but what happens next? Right, like what

0:43:40.040 --> 0:43:44.040
<v Speaker 2>happens after nineteen twelve, Well, nearly twenty years would pass

0:43:44.160 --> 0:43:48.320
<v Speaker 2>before the disease appeared in another scientific publication, one that

0:43:48.360 --> 0:43:51.360
<v Speaker 2>would give it its name and identify the causative agent.

0:43:52.280 --> 0:43:55.280
<v Speaker 2>In nineteen thirty one, Dabney and Hudson from the Division

0:43:55.320 --> 0:43:59.560
<v Speaker 2>of Veterinary Research, Kenya Colony described a devastating outbreak of

0:43:59.640 --> 0:44:03.400
<v Speaker 2>unknown cause in sheep Merino sheep on a farm in

0:44:03.400 --> 0:44:07.520
<v Speaker 2>the Rift Valley. The disease primarily impacted newborn lambs or

0:44:07.560 --> 0:44:10.480
<v Speaker 2>pregnant sheep. At the start of the outbreak, sixty of

0:44:10.520 --> 0:44:13.840
<v Speaker 2>the eighty lambs born died within a matter of weeks.

0:44:14.800 --> 0:44:18.520
<v Speaker 2>The authors noted that the farm manager chose July and

0:44:18.640 --> 0:44:23.239
<v Speaker 2>August as the lambing season. That year, which was somewhat unusual.

0:44:23.800 --> 0:44:26.960
<v Speaker 2>Normally it was May or October to November. Right, So

0:44:27.000 --> 0:44:29.799
<v Speaker 2>you choose like when the lambs are born. Sorry, how

0:44:29.800 --> 0:44:32.600
<v Speaker 2>do you choose that you put the sheep together at

0:44:32.600 --> 0:44:36.719
<v Speaker 2>a certain time? Oh wow, yeah, I know you well,

0:44:36.719 --> 0:44:38.560
<v Speaker 2>And you do this so that you can time it

0:44:38.600 --> 0:44:44.280
<v Speaker 2>with like when rainfall, when grass is available, grazing lands,

0:44:44.280 --> 0:44:47.960
<v Speaker 2>et cetera. Interesting, Okay, so why July and August of

0:44:47.960 --> 0:44:50.399
<v Speaker 2>that year. Well, it turns out that in that same year,

0:44:50.680 --> 0:44:54.320
<v Speaker 2>the area had received an unusually large amount of rainfall,

0:44:54.880 --> 0:44:58.400
<v Speaker 2>over forty five inches compared to the annual average of

0:44:58.560 --> 0:45:02.839
<v Speaker 2>twenty five which is a ton. So this meant more

0:45:02.880 --> 0:45:05.640
<v Speaker 2>grazing habitat during the dry season, and so the manager

0:45:05.680 --> 0:45:08.680
<v Speaker 2>figured it would be safe to lamb in July and August,

0:45:09.200 --> 0:45:11.640
<v Speaker 2>especially if the heavy rains in the beginning of the

0:45:11.719 --> 0:45:14.680
<v Speaker 2>year were repeated in November, which would make it harder

0:45:14.680 --> 0:45:17.680
<v Speaker 2>on the lambs that were born then. So you kind

0:45:17.680 --> 0:45:20.719
<v Speaker 2>of just like hedging your bets, like, well, things are

0:45:20.719 --> 0:45:23.120
<v Speaker 2>looking good right now, let's lamb right now, or like

0:45:23.160 --> 0:45:27.040
<v Speaker 2>you know, however, many months from now and the rainfall

0:45:27.400 --> 0:45:31.520
<v Speaker 2>and mosquitoes the excess to rainfall. Ye, have also meant

0:45:31.560 --> 0:45:35.520
<v Speaker 2>more habitat for other critters like midges, which can transmit

0:45:35.560 --> 0:45:39.080
<v Speaker 2>a virus that causes the livestock disease blue tongue, which

0:45:39.120 --> 0:45:42.399
<v Speaker 2>I also saw peek in that year, and mosquitoes, which

0:45:42.440 --> 0:45:47.520
<v Speaker 2>of course carry the riffed felly fever virus. Those sixty

0:45:47.640 --> 0:45:50.640
<v Speaker 2>lamb deaths in early July turned out to be only

0:45:50.719 --> 0:45:54.640
<v Speaker 2>the tip of the iceberg, as the disease tore through

0:45:54.920 --> 0:45:59.080
<v Speaker 2>the flock, killing lambs and use within hours of the

0:45:59.120 --> 0:46:03.400
<v Speaker 2>first symptoms appearing. By August tenth, nineteen thirty, about a

0:46:03.480 --> 0:46:07.840
<v Speaker 2>month after the outbreak began, quote, the total mortality in

0:46:07.960 --> 0:46:12.080
<v Speaker 2>lambs had reached approximately thirty five hundred and upwards of

0:46:12.239 --> 0:46:15.600
<v Speaker 2>twelve hundred us had died. Wow. I think it was

0:46:15.600 --> 0:46:20.120
<v Speaker 2>a mortality of ninety five percent. Oh my god. Yeah.

0:46:20.800 --> 0:46:24.160
<v Speaker 2>The farm manager was desperate to save the surviving sheep,

0:46:24.200 --> 0:46:27.239
<v Speaker 2>and so he transported them to another farm higher up

0:46:27.480 --> 0:46:30.880
<v Speaker 2>around seven thousand to eighty five hundred feet in altitude,

0:46:31.480 --> 0:46:33.760
<v Speaker 2>which is twenty one hundred and twenty six hundred meters

0:46:34.360 --> 0:46:36.960
<v Speaker 2>other farm. The original farm was about fifty five hundred

0:46:37.000 --> 0:46:40.240
<v Speaker 2>to six thousand feet seventeen hundred to eighteen hundred meters

0:46:41.160 --> 0:46:44.880
<v Speaker 2>after arriving there. At higher up the deaths continued for

0:46:44.920 --> 0:46:47.960
<v Speaker 2>a few days but eventually stopped. Okay, but the disease

0:46:48.080 --> 0:46:52.359
<v Speaker 2>continued on on the original farm for months after. And

0:46:52.360 --> 0:46:55.120
<v Speaker 2>so this could be because there aren't as many mosquitoes

0:46:55.160 --> 0:46:58.279
<v Speaker 2>at higher elevations, maybe like the temperatures keep it down,

0:46:58.480 --> 0:47:01.400
<v Speaker 2>or the humidity or whatever it is, or the mosquitoes

0:47:01.440 --> 0:47:04.520
<v Speaker 2>that carry the virus don't live at higher elevations even

0:47:04.520 --> 0:47:07.799
<v Speaker 2>if there are other mosquitoes there, or the mosquitoes at

0:47:07.800 --> 0:47:11.680
<v Speaker 2>those higher altitudes just weren't infected. And so to try

0:47:11.680 --> 0:47:13.480
<v Speaker 2>to answer this, I did a little bit of digging

0:47:13.520 --> 0:47:16.200
<v Speaker 2>and found a twenty sixteen paper that noted that the

0:47:16.320 --> 0:47:19.359
<v Speaker 2>risk of Rift Valley fever tended to go down as

0:47:19.400 --> 0:47:22.319
<v Speaker 2>altitude went up. But it doesn't seem like there's been

0:47:22.360 --> 0:47:26.600
<v Speaker 2>extensive research about the altitudinal range of the vector mosquitoes

0:47:27.080 --> 0:47:28.920
<v Speaker 2>or you know, like all of these questions that are

0:47:28.960 --> 0:47:33.560
<v Speaker 2>like are mosquitoes capable of transmitting the virus existing or

0:47:33.640 --> 0:47:34.880
<v Speaker 2>living at higher altitudes?

0:47:35.120 --> 0:47:37.640
<v Speaker 1>Right? Well, and it's hard because there's so many species

0:47:37.760 --> 0:47:38.799
<v Speaker 1>erin like which one do you pay?

0:47:38.960 --> 0:47:43.160
<v Speaker 2>Many species? Right? Yeah? And then like if higher altitude

0:47:43.200 --> 0:47:47.239
<v Speaker 2>means less likely infection. Will that change is the climate changes, probably,

0:47:48.800 --> 0:47:52.200
<v Speaker 2>but I'm getting ahead of myself. Dobney and Hudson, the

0:47:52.280 --> 0:47:55.000
<v Speaker 2>authors of this nineteen thirty one paper, got to the

0:47:55.040 --> 0:47:59.200
<v Speaker 2>farm and began their susceptibility tests, their post mortems, their analyzes.

0:47:59.800 --> 0:48:02.800
<v Speaker 2>They isolated a virus that they named the Rift Valley

0:48:02.800 --> 0:48:06.720
<v Speaker 2>fever virus, found that it caused the highest mortality in sheep,

0:48:06.840 --> 0:48:09.799
<v Speaker 2>but that goats and cattle could also be infected, as

0:48:09.840 --> 0:48:14.279
<v Speaker 2>could humans. Quote. During the course of the investigation, all

0:48:14.360 --> 0:48:18.319
<v Speaker 2>the four Europeans engaged developed a dangae like fever, which

0:48:18.320 --> 0:48:20.759
<v Speaker 2>we now know to have been due to infection with

0:48:20.840 --> 0:48:24.880
<v Speaker 2>the virus. The first person to be attacked was mister F. Lyons,

0:48:24.920 --> 0:48:27.960
<v Speaker 2>the laboratory assistant in charge of the exposure experiment on

0:48:28.000 --> 0:48:31.560
<v Speaker 2>the farm where the disease first appeared. Mister E. J. Hall,

0:48:31.640 --> 0:48:35.200
<v Speaker 2>who assisted in the laboratory investigation, was next attacked a

0:48:35.200 --> 0:48:38.319
<v Speaker 2>few days later. Both writers developed symptoms within a few

0:48:38.360 --> 0:48:41.120
<v Speaker 2>hours of each other. In every case, the onset of

0:48:41.120 --> 0:48:44.000
<v Speaker 2>the attack was characterized by a very brief period of

0:48:44.040 --> 0:48:48.160
<v Speaker 2>general malaise, followed rapidly by sharp riggers and headache. The

0:48:48.200 --> 0:48:51.160
<v Speaker 2>temperature rose to about one hundred and three degrees fahrenheit,

0:48:51.400 --> 0:48:54.239
<v Speaker 2>and the face was brightly flushed in From three to

0:48:54.280 --> 0:48:57.719
<v Speaker 2>six hours after the riggers had passed off, pains developed

0:48:57.719 --> 0:49:00.080
<v Speaker 2>in or near the joints, extending from the base of

0:49:00.080 --> 0:49:03.520
<v Speaker 2>the skull to the extremities. Fever persisted for a period

0:49:03.640 --> 0:49:06.240
<v Speaker 2>of from twelve to thirty six hours, and the pains

0:49:06.280 --> 0:49:11.560
<v Speaker 2>gradually disappeared within about four days. And then they would

0:49:11.600 --> 0:49:14.920
<v Speaker 2>go on to say that every quote unquote native that

0:49:14.960 --> 0:49:17.239
<v Speaker 2>was hurting sheep during the attack also got sick with

0:49:17.280 --> 0:49:19.400
<v Speaker 2>fever and aches and pains, and that the manager just

0:49:19.560 --> 0:49:23.040
<v Speaker 2>chalked it up to eating quote the somewhat decomposed carcasses

0:49:23.080 --> 0:49:28.720
<v Speaker 2>of dead sheep end quote great great, yeah, okay, yeah,

0:49:28.760 --> 0:49:33.160
<v Speaker 2>just just some casual racism thrown into that paper. Not

0:49:33.480 --> 0:49:37.640
<v Speaker 2>surprising at all. Nope, Nope. This nineteen thirty one paper

0:49:37.920 --> 0:49:42.400
<v Speaker 2>clearly described this newly recognized disease, the responsible virus, the

0:49:42.400 --> 0:49:46.360
<v Speaker 2>symptoms it caused, and its association with wet years, even

0:49:46.440 --> 0:49:49.440
<v Speaker 2>noting that quote the DNGE like fever in man would

0:49:49.440 --> 0:49:53.200
<v Speaker 2>in all probability fail to attract serious attention in view

0:49:53.200 --> 0:49:55.520
<v Speaker 2>of the fact that in such years the incidents of

0:49:55.600 --> 0:50:00.759
<v Speaker 2>malaria would be unusually high, and quote, yeah, they're like obscured.

0:50:01.160 --> 0:50:03.040
<v Speaker 1>Right, it's here, but it's not as big of a

0:50:03.040 --> 0:50:05.160
<v Speaker 1>deal as the other stuff, so no one's looking at.

0:50:05.000 --> 0:50:07.960
<v Speaker 2>It, right, And it's also like everyone's getting sick from

0:50:07.960 --> 0:50:09.840
<v Speaker 2>these other things, and so it kind of flies under.

0:50:09.640 --> 0:50:11.919
<v Speaker 1>The radar, right right right now, Okay, makes sense.

0:50:12.239 --> 0:50:15.120
<v Speaker 2>And so but with that similarity to malaria pointed out,

0:50:15.160 --> 0:50:17.640
<v Speaker 2>they made an educated guess that the Rift Velly fever

0:50:17.760 --> 0:50:23.200
<v Speaker 2>virus was transmitted like malaria, by mosquitos. Love that, yeah,

0:50:23.400 --> 0:50:25.719
<v Speaker 2>but it was also clear that mosquitoes were not the

0:50:25.719 --> 0:50:28.439
<v Speaker 2>only way you could get exposed to the virus. First,

0:50:28.480 --> 0:50:30.920
<v Speaker 2>you had the four who worked on the virus, including

0:50:31.000 --> 0:50:33.520
<v Speaker 2>Dobney and Hudson, get sick, along with so many people

0:50:33.520 --> 0:50:37.480
<v Speaker 2>who worked with sheep in the field, presumably from handling

0:50:38.000 --> 0:50:41.600
<v Speaker 2>samples or directly interacting with the sheep themselves. But then

0:50:41.640 --> 0:50:44.719
<v Speaker 2>the disease started to crop up in laboratory researchers a

0:50:44.840 --> 0:50:48.360
<v Speaker 2>long way from Kenya, especially those who performed in a

0:50:48.440 --> 0:50:51.600
<v Speaker 2>cropsies on the lambs, and the first known death from

0:50:51.680 --> 0:50:55.600
<v Speaker 2>Rift Valley fever in humans was recorded in nineteen thirty

0:50:55.719 --> 0:50:58.800
<v Speaker 2>three or nineteen thirty two from our first hand account. Okay.

0:50:59.719 --> 0:51:04.120
<v Speaker 2>This death, though, would stand out as somewhat of an anomaly.

0:51:04.400 --> 0:51:07.920
<v Speaker 2>For the four or so decades that followed the publication

0:51:08.200 --> 0:51:11.719
<v Speaker 2>of Dobni and Hudson's paper, from the nineteen thirties to

0:51:11.760 --> 0:51:16.000
<v Speaker 2>the nineteen seventies, Rift Valley Fever caused nearly two dozen

0:51:16.160 --> 0:51:21.400
<v Speaker 2>epizootics throughout Africa, first spreading from East Africa to South Africa,

0:51:21.840 --> 0:51:26.680
<v Speaker 2>and infections seemed limited to livestock. Only few human cases

0:51:26.680 --> 0:51:31.719
<v Speaker 2>were noted and no deaths, and these weren't necessarily small outbreaks.

0:51:31.920 --> 0:51:35.280
<v Speaker 2>One epizootic in Kenya from nineteen fifty to nineteen fifty

0:51:35.320 --> 0:51:39.799
<v Speaker 2>one led to five hundred thousand sheep infections and one

0:51:39.880 --> 0:51:42.440
<v Speaker 2>hundred thousand deaths. Wow.

0:51:42.840 --> 0:51:46.359
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, that's like when I feel like when you hear

0:51:46.480 --> 0:51:49.000
<v Speaker 1>numbers like that, like it's just so hard to imagine

0:51:50.360 --> 0:51:52.520
<v Speaker 1>that much death and devastation.

0:51:52.640 --> 0:51:59.280
<v Speaker 2>Honestly it is, and like livelihoods ruined, absolutely ruined. Yeah.

0:52:00.160 --> 0:52:04.279
<v Speaker 2>Was it possible that in an epizolotic like this just

0:52:04.440 --> 0:52:07.040
<v Speaker 2>no one was looking for human cases and they were

0:52:07.120 --> 0:52:12.640
<v Speaker 2>just mild or asymptomatic, I mean, potentially likely, But researchers

0:52:12.680 --> 0:52:15.680
<v Speaker 2>screened some of the people that were handling animals during

0:52:15.719 --> 0:52:19.000
<v Speaker 2>the outbreaks and found really low levels of antibodies to

0:52:19.160 --> 0:52:23.000
<v Speaker 2>the Rift Valley fever virus, suggesting that they weren't getting

0:52:23.040 --> 0:52:27.560
<v Speaker 2>infected at all. I have so many questions, erin, I know,

0:52:28.760 --> 0:52:32.239
<v Speaker 2>because this isn't the way things stayed. Yeah, right, Like

0:52:32.280 --> 0:52:35.680
<v Speaker 2>this epizootic happening every few years, causing a few mild

0:52:35.760 --> 0:52:39.320
<v Speaker 2>human infections if any, but lots and lots of animal

0:52:39.360 --> 0:52:42.640
<v Speaker 2>infections and death. That was going to be a thing

0:52:42.680 --> 0:52:46.600
<v Speaker 2>of the past. The first signal that something changed came

0:52:46.719 --> 0:52:50.320
<v Speaker 2>in nineteen seventy four and nineteen seventy six, when South

0:52:50.360 --> 0:52:53.880
<v Speaker 2>Africa saw half a million animal infections and the first

0:52:54.000 --> 0:52:58.400
<v Speaker 2>human deaths due to Rift Valley fever virus in South Africa,

0:52:59.160 --> 0:53:03.560
<v Speaker 2>this time not from laboratory workers, and more human infections

0:53:03.560 --> 0:53:06.800
<v Speaker 2>than had ever been reported one hundred and ten lab

0:53:06.840 --> 0:53:11.200
<v Speaker 2>diagnosed cases and seven deaths. Wow. But this outbreak would

0:53:11.320 --> 0:53:15.360
<v Speaker 2>quickly be overshadowed by another, resulting in a total paradigm

0:53:15.440 --> 0:53:18.640
<v Speaker 2>shift for this disease that would shape our understanding of

0:53:18.680 --> 0:53:22.480
<v Speaker 2>the virus and its relevance in public health. Between nineteen

0:53:22.480 --> 0:53:26.080
<v Speaker 2>seventy seven and nineteen seventy nine, riffed vellley fever ripped

0:53:26.120 --> 0:53:29.399
<v Speaker 2>through Egypt, which had never seen a case before. In fact,

0:53:29.480 --> 0:53:32.600
<v Speaker 2>no cases outside of Sub Saharan Africa had been seen

0:53:32.680 --> 0:53:37.560
<v Speaker 2>before this. Officials estimated that half of all susceptible animals

0:53:37.600 --> 0:53:44.240
<v Speaker 2>in the country were infected. Whoa, Yeah, which absolutely devastated

0:53:44.320 --> 0:53:48.560
<v Speaker 2>the Egyptian economy. As if that wasn't bad enough, the

0:53:48.600 --> 0:53:53.759
<v Speaker 2>disease also caused extensive morbidity and mortality in humans, with

0:53:53.880 --> 0:53:59.320
<v Speaker 2>an estimated two hundred thousand human infections and six hundred deaths.

0:54:01.120 --> 0:54:03.560
<v Speaker 1>I mean, so different than these early outbreaks that you're

0:54:03.600 --> 0:54:04.160
<v Speaker 1>just holding.

0:54:04.520 --> 0:54:07.520
<v Speaker 2>So different And even in the past outbreaks when there

0:54:07.560 --> 0:54:13.360
<v Speaker 2>had been some human infection, they were mild, right, and small, small,

0:54:13.760 --> 0:54:17.799
<v Speaker 2>small numbers. Yeah, But this outbreak in Egypt, there was

0:54:17.840 --> 0:54:21.560
<v Speaker 2>heemorrhagic disease, there was encephalitis, there was ocular disease, all

0:54:21.600 --> 0:54:24.799
<v Speaker 2>of these extreme manifestations of the virus that you described.

0:54:25.800 --> 0:54:28.480
<v Speaker 2>And with this outbreak came the realization that this was

0:54:28.719 --> 0:54:32.680
<v Speaker 2>more than a potentially devastating disease for livestock, Rift valley

0:54:32.719 --> 0:54:37.080
<v Speaker 2>fever also posed a serious threat to humans. This became

0:54:37.160 --> 0:54:39.920
<v Speaker 2>more and more apparent over the following decades. First in

0:54:40.000 --> 0:54:42.800
<v Speaker 2>nineteen ninety seven to nineteen ninety eight, with a devastating

0:54:42.800 --> 0:54:47.520
<v Speaker 2>epizootic and epidemic in Kenya after rainfall exceeded sixty to

0:54:47.520 --> 0:54:51.400
<v Speaker 2>one hundred times a normal amount WOW, resulting in livestock

0:54:51.480 --> 0:54:55.239
<v Speaker 2>losses up to seventy percent on some farms and an

0:54:55.360 --> 0:54:59.080
<v Speaker 2>estimated eighty nine thousand infections and four hundred and seventy

0:54:59.120 --> 0:55:03.640
<v Speaker 2>eight deaths in huge Then rift velly fever continued to

0:55:03.719 --> 0:55:07.759
<v Speaker 2>expand its geographic range, with the first cases of rift

0:55:07.800 --> 0:55:11.360
<v Speaker 2>valley fever outside of Africa happening in Saudi Arabia and

0:55:11.480 --> 0:55:14.400
<v Speaker 2>Yemen in two thousand, where it caused eight hundred and

0:55:14.400 --> 0:55:17.799
<v Speaker 2>eighty lab confirmed cases the real number is likely much

0:55:17.880 --> 0:55:21.839
<v Speaker 2>much higher and one hundred and twenty three deaths. Since then,

0:55:21.960 --> 0:55:25.680
<v Speaker 2>rift valley fever has settled into this new pattern, causing

0:55:25.760 --> 0:55:30.800
<v Speaker 2>occasional episolotics and epidemics after periods of unusually heavy rainfall,

0:55:31.120 --> 0:55:34.520
<v Speaker 2>often resulting in hundreds, if not thousands or tens of

0:55:34.560 --> 0:55:38.160
<v Speaker 2>thousands of human cases and deaths, as well as severe

0:55:38.200 --> 0:55:42.879
<v Speaker 2>economic losses due to livestock mortality and so circling back

0:55:42.920 --> 0:55:45.360
<v Speaker 2>to those two questions that I asked at the start

0:55:45.400 --> 0:55:49.560
<v Speaker 2>of this why did rift valley fever become deadlier and

0:55:49.680 --> 0:55:52.600
<v Speaker 2>cause larger outbreaks over the past fifty years or so,

0:55:52.840 --> 0:55:57.120
<v Speaker 2>And what can that tell us about future outbreaks. The

0:55:57.200 --> 0:56:01.360
<v Speaker 2>answer to those questions is complicated because we've got so

0:56:01.600 --> 0:56:05.920
<v Speaker 2>many interconnected factors at play. We've got the virus itself,

0:56:06.200 --> 0:56:09.800
<v Speaker 2>how likely it is to mutate or reassort or recombine.

0:56:10.480 --> 0:56:13.560
<v Speaker 2>How often it gets an opportunity to become more virulent.

0:56:14.400 --> 0:56:17.840
<v Speaker 2>We've got the vectors, how abundant they are, Which species

0:56:17.880 --> 0:56:20.839
<v Speaker 2>are in which areas, Whether different species are equally good

0:56:20.880 --> 0:56:23.719
<v Speaker 2>at transmitting the virus, whether different species tend to bite

0:56:23.760 --> 0:56:27.239
<v Speaker 2>humans or livestock more readily, how often they feed, how

0:56:27.280 --> 0:56:30.600
<v Speaker 2>long their eggs, which could potentially contain the virus last

0:56:31.000 --> 0:56:35.239
<v Speaker 2>between epizootics in the environment. We've got the hosts. How

0:56:35.239 --> 0:56:38.160
<v Speaker 2>many sheep are in a certain area, how controlled their

0:56:38.160 --> 0:56:41.279
<v Speaker 2>movements are, how susceptible they are. Whether the animals have

0:56:41.320 --> 0:56:45.000
<v Speaker 2>been vaccinated when lamming happens, importation of animals from affected

0:56:45.040 --> 0:56:47.680
<v Speaker 2>regions to ones where the virus has never appeared. How

0:56:47.680 --> 0:56:50.480
<v Speaker 2>many humans live or work near outbreak areas, whether they

0:56:50.480 --> 0:56:53.760
<v Speaker 2>have access to protective equipment when handling infected animals, whether

0:56:53.800 --> 0:56:56.520
<v Speaker 2>this region has the resources to monitor outbreaks and take

0:56:56.520 --> 0:56:59.200
<v Speaker 2>steps to prevent or control the disease if it appears.

0:57:00.360 --> 0:57:04.120
<v Speaker 2>I'm not done. Oh there's more I know. Then there's

0:57:04.160 --> 0:57:09.000
<v Speaker 2>the environment, right, rainfall amount, humidity, temperature, soil type. Some

0:57:09.200 --> 0:57:12.560
<v Speaker 2>soils retain water better than others, which in turn has

0:57:12.600 --> 0:57:16.120
<v Speaker 2>an effect on mosquito habitat, the propensity of certain areas

0:57:16.120 --> 0:57:20.800
<v Speaker 2>to flood, vegetation density and type, which also affects mosquito

0:57:20.800 --> 0:57:26.240
<v Speaker 2>breeding habitats and grazing, deforestation, irrigation, dams, al Nino events, wind,

0:57:26.520 --> 0:57:31.920
<v Speaker 2>and so many other factors. Well, wildlife, wildlife, Yes, what

0:57:32.600 --> 0:57:34.960
<v Speaker 2>potential hosts, What other hohosts.

0:57:34.680 --> 0:57:37.640
<v Speaker 1>Are around besides your livestock? And what kind of density,

0:57:37.640 --> 0:57:40.800
<v Speaker 1>and what kind of environments, what kind of mixing? What

0:57:40.840 --> 0:57:43.960
<v Speaker 1>species of mosquito biting them versus you versus your livestock?

0:57:44.080 --> 0:57:45.160
<v Speaker 2>There, it is.

0:57:45.120 --> 0:57:50.240
<v Speaker 1>An unbelievably complicated This is why we don't have predictive models.

0:57:50.280 --> 0:57:54.640
<v Speaker 2>That's the well we do. That's the kind of cool thing.

0:57:55.560 --> 0:57:57.840
<v Speaker 2>I mean, no, like we do, and we don't write

0:57:58.200 --> 0:58:01.160
<v Speaker 2>do we have perfect models. There's no such We're never

0:58:01.200 --> 0:58:03.320
<v Speaker 2>going to have the amount of data. Ecology is just

0:58:03.400 --> 0:58:06.440
<v Speaker 2>too noisy there's too much going on, it's too difficult

0:58:06.480 --> 0:58:09.760
<v Speaker 2>to collect. Things are changing too much. Drawing a straight

0:58:09.840 --> 0:58:16.840
<v Speaker 2>line from cause to effect is impossible, doesn't exist. I mean, yeah, yeah,

0:58:17.320 --> 0:58:22.560
<v Speaker 2>just not really feasibility. But even with all of these

0:58:22.920 --> 0:58:25.920
<v Speaker 2>moving parts, there are some ways that we are able

0:58:26.000 --> 0:58:30.120
<v Speaker 2>to see what the future might look like. And it

0:58:30.200 --> 0:58:33.160
<v Speaker 2>also might help us to answer some questions about the past.

0:58:34.000 --> 0:58:37.000
<v Speaker 2>Why Rift Valley fever became more deadly and more likely

0:58:37.040 --> 0:58:40.560
<v Speaker 2>to cause human deaths about fifty years ago. I mean,

0:58:40.600 --> 0:58:43.640
<v Speaker 2>it's probably a mix of those moving parts, maybe mutations

0:58:43.720 --> 0:58:47.880
<v Speaker 2>or reassortments of the virus, increased rainfall events because of

0:58:47.960 --> 0:58:53.480
<v Speaker 2>climate instability, increasing herd sizes, and crucially, movement of infected

0:58:53.520 --> 0:58:59.000
<v Speaker 2>animals across large geographic areas, especially from endemic to naive areas.

0:59:00.520 --> 0:59:04.880
<v Speaker 2>More virus equals more infections equals more opportunities to become deadlier.

0:59:06.200 --> 0:59:09.080
<v Speaker 2>We don't have a perfect roadmap for how this happened,

0:59:10.120 --> 0:59:14.480
<v Speaker 2>but putting together the drivers of these past outbreaks or

0:59:14.520 --> 0:59:18.160
<v Speaker 2>some factors associated with these past outbreaks can give us

0:59:18.160 --> 0:59:21.160
<v Speaker 2>clues about the future. So there's a cool paper from

0:59:21.240 --> 0:59:24.280
<v Speaker 2>twenty twenty four by Chemisen at All that talks about

0:59:24.440 --> 0:59:27.680
<v Speaker 2>how they created a model using climate data to see

0:59:27.720 --> 0:59:32.480
<v Speaker 2>if they could accurately predict past riftfelly fever outbreaks across Africa.

0:59:32.520 --> 0:59:36.200
<v Speaker 2>And it is just like primarily climate data, but their

0:59:36.240 --> 0:59:39.600
<v Speaker 2>model did a pretty good job, which is exciting in itself.

0:59:39.760 --> 0:59:42.200
<v Speaker 2>But what this also means is that you could tell

0:59:42.240 --> 0:59:45.000
<v Speaker 2>this model, Okay, this is what the climate is projected

0:59:45.000 --> 0:59:47.120
<v Speaker 2>to look like in the next ten years for this

0:59:47.160 --> 0:59:50.080
<v Speaker 2>region or that region, or even the next year or

0:59:50.120 --> 0:59:52.720
<v Speaker 2>the next five years, whatever you want, and you could

0:59:52.760 --> 0:59:57.080
<v Speaker 2>see how those different climate scenarios or climate change scenarios

0:59:57.360 --> 1:00:00.400
<v Speaker 2>could impact the risk of rift felly fever out breaks

1:00:01.240 --> 1:00:04.040
<v Speaker 2>broad strokes. Right now seems to be that things will

1:00:04.040 --> 1:00:07.800
<v Speaker 2>get wetter in affected regions, which means more outbreaks potentially,

1:00:08.720 --> 1:00:11.200
<v Speaker 2>And so you could say, okay, next year, what is

1:00:11.240 --> 1:00:13.920
<v Speaker 2>it going to look like potentially for rainfall, and you

1:00:13.960 --> 1:00:17.280
<v Speaker 2>could place higher alert and so then if an outbreak

1:00:17.320 --> 1:00:19.320
<v Speaker 2>does start to happen, are there things that you can

1:00:19.400 --> 1:00:21.480
<v Speaker 2>do to cut that outbreak short? Right?

1:00:21.600 --> 1:00:23.400
<v Speaker 1>What are the plans that you put in place knowing

1:00:23.440 --> 1:00:25.200
<v Speaker 1>that this is going to be a wetter year, knowing

1:00:25.240 --> 1:00:27.640
<v Speaker 1>that that's going to increase the risk of transmission? How

1:00:27.680 --> 1:00:30.280
<v Speaker 1>do you then deal with it right right, And.

1:00:30.240 --> 1:00:33.919
<v Speaker 2>So these models are not perfect, but they can help

1:00:34.000 --> 1:00:37.760
<v Speaker 2>to create early warnings to focus resources during certain areas

1:00:37.760 --> 1:00:41.640
<v Speaker 2>at certain times, in places where resources typically are often

1:00:41.760 --> 1:00:45.520
<v Speaker 2>very limited, to see where rift valley fever might spread

1:00:45.600 --> 1:00:48.360
<v Speaker 2>as the climate changes. You'll see some papers that are

1:00:48.400 --> 1:00:51.000
<v Speaker 2>like rift valley fever in Europe, is this where it's

1:00:51.040 --> 1:00:55.360
<v Speaker 2>going to be now? And these models can be updated

1:00:55.400 --> 1:00:58.800
<v Speaker 2>as we learn more about this virus, about the climate,

1:00:58.920 --> 1:01:02.880
<v Speaker 2>about the host, about all about the mosquitoes, about everything.

1:01:04.320 --> 1:01:07.360
<v Speaker 2>They are a really important part of our toolkit, but

1:01:07.400 --> 1:01:11.040
<v Speaker 2>they're not the only thing. So speaking of which Aaron,

1:01:11.080 --> 1:01:13.360
<v Speaker 2>I was hoping that you could tell me where we

1:01:13.480 --> 1:01:17.000
<v Speaker 2>are with rift valley fever today and whether there's maybe

1:01:17.040 --> 1:01:19.120
<v Speaker 2>a human vaccine in the works.

1:01:20.440 --> 1:01:57.720
<v Speaker 1>We'll talk about it right after this break. So, like

1:01:57.800 --> 1:02:00.240
<v Speaker 1>you mentioned, Aaron, when you were talking about where we

1:02:00.320 --> 1:02:03.840
<v Speaker 1>first saw this virus and how it has spread, this

1:02:04.000 --> 1:02:07.560
<v Speaker 1>is a virus that's endemic at this point in animals

1:02:07.560 --> 1:02:13.360
<v Speaker 1>and or mosquitoes across eastern Africa, all the way into

1:02:13.400 --> 1:02:18.720
<v Speaker 1>southern Africa, honestly across the entire continent into western Africa,

1:02:19.200 --> 1:02:23.040
<v Speaker 1>and has gone north into Egypt and caused a few

1:02:23.040 --> 1:02:28.280
<v Speaker 1>outbreaks on the Arabian Peninsula. Looking at the World Health

1:02:28.360 --> 1:02:32.160
<v Speaker 1>Organization's outbreak reports, because they have disease outbreak news reports,

1:02:32.200 --> 1:02:35.560
<v Speaker 1>and this is absolutely one of the viruses that gets

1:02:35.600 --> 1:02:39.600
<v Speaker 1>reported on if there are any human cases. The most

1:02:39.720 --> 1:02:42.520
<v Speaker 1>recent outbreaks that they reported were actually a couple of

1:02:42.640 --> 1:02:44.640
<v Speaker 1>years ago, which I was a little bit surprised about.

1:02:44.640 --> 1:02:47.919
<v Speaker 1>There haven't been any that they reported thus far as

1:02:47.960 --> 1:02:50.560
<v Speaker 1>of the time of recording in twenty twenty three or

1:02:50.600 --> 1:02:53.800
<v Speaker 1>twenty twenty four. The most recent outbreak that the World

1:02:53.840 --> 1:02:58.000
<v Speaker 1>Health Organization reported on was in Mauritania in twenty twenty two,

1:02:59.280 --> 1:03:03.520
<v Speaker 1>and in this outbreak there were forty seven cases confirmed

1:03:03.600 --> 1:03:06.760
<v Speaker 1>in humans. Almost all of them were people who worked

1:03:06.800 --> 1:03:12.080
<v Speaker 1>with animals of some kind, many animal breeders. But of

1:03:12.120 --> 1:03:17.840
<v Speaker 1>those forty seven cases, twenty three people died wow, which

1:03:17.880 --> 1:03:22.880
<v Speaker 1>is a case fatality rate of forty nine percent. In

1:03:22.920 --> 1:03:26.040
<v Speaker 1>this outbreak. Of the animals that they tested, there were

1:03:26.120 --> 1:03:29.960
<v Speaker 1>nearly three hundred animals that were positive for refali fever virus.

1:03:30.280 --> 1:03:33.400
<v Speaker 1>Twenty four percent of those animals died, and these were

1:03:33.480 --> 1:03:37.640
<v Speaker 1>a mix of cattle, camels, and small ruminants. If we

1:03:37.680 --> 1:03:41.240
<v Speaker 1>look back at past outbreaks, in twenty twenty one, there

1:03:41.280 --> 1:03:45.080
<v Speaker 1>was an outbreak in Kenya that had thirty two confirmed

1:03:45.160 --> 1:03:48.920
<v Speaker 1>human cases and eleven deaths, which is a case fatality

1:03:49.000 --> 1:03:52.640
<v Speaker 1>rate of thirty four percent. There was an even larger

1:03:52.680 --> 1:03:56.520
<v Speaker 1>outbreak in Mauritania in twenty twenty with at least seventy

1:03:56.600 --> 1:04:01.280
<v Speaker 1>five people confirmed positive, over two hundred people were suspected

1:04:01.320 --> 1:04:06.080
<v Speaker 1>to be infected, and at least twenty five deaths. And

1:04:06.120 --> 1:04:09.160
<v Speaker 1>what I was thinking in looking through all of these

1:04:09.320 --> 1:04:14.320
<v Speaker 1>individual outbreaks, and again you can link to all of

1:04:14.320 --> 1:04:16.600
<v Speaker 1>these on the World Health Organization website. There's a number

1:04:16.680 --> 1:04:21.240
<v Speaker 1>more dating back to like the twenty tens, that these

1:04:21.920 --> 1:04:27.080
<v Speaker 1>are very high case fatality rates, very high compared to

1:04:27.160 --> 1:04:30.280
<v Speaker 1>what we have seen in the past, and very high

1:04:30.280 --> 1:04:33.440
<v Speaker 1>compared to what all of the sources that I read

1:04:33.960 --> 1:04:38.520
<v Speaker 1>would lead you to expect when we talk about one

1:04:38.560 --> 1:04:41.240
<v Speaker 1>to two percent of cases or even eight to ten

1:04:41.240 --> 1:04:47.120
<v Speaker 1>percent of symptomatic cases being severe and fifty percent of

1:04:47.440 --> 1:04:51.960
<v Speaker 1>hemorrhagic cases ending in death. Right, that's the numbers that

1:04:52.040 --> 1:04:52.960
<v Speaker 1>I cited earlier.

1:04:53.400 --> 1:04:59.280
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, so what is going on here?

1:05:00.120 --> 1:05:04.360
<v Speaker 1>Does this mean that in these outbreaks, the cases that

1:05:04.480 --> 1:05:07.000
<v Speaker 1>we are able to report that the World Health Organization

1:05:07.080 --> 1:05:11.000
<v Speaker 1>is reporting, are those cases only the tip of the

1:05:11.040 --> 1:05:13.720
<v Speaker 1>iceberg in a case.

1:05:14.440 --> 1:05:15.640
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, that's possible.

1:05:16.080 --> 1:05:18.120
<v Speaker 1>I did some air in math to try and get

1:05:18.160 --> 1:05:21.880
<v Speaker 1>a handle on what that would mean. So if we

1:05:21.920 --> 1:05:24.840
<v Speaker 1>look at the outbreak in Mauritania in twenty twenty two,

1:05:25.520 --> 1:05:27.960
<v Speaker 1>we had forty seven people that were confirmed to be

1:05:28.000 --> 1:05:29.520
<v Speaker 1>infected and twenty three.

1:05:29.440 --> 1:05:30.280
<v Speaker 2>People who died.

1:05:32.000 --> 1:05:37.800
<v Speaker 1>If we think that that means that those cases were

1:05:37.880 --> 1:05:42.360
<v Speaker 1>only the people who had severe infection. If we tried

1:05:42.400 --> 1:05:46.560
<v Speaker 1>to air in math that outbreak, then we would estimate

1:05:46.600 --> 1:05:49.520
<v Speaker 1>that outbreak could have been as large as like four thousand,

1:05:49.720 --> 1:05:53.600
<v Speaker 1>seven hundred people who were infected. If we were expecting

1:05:54.160 --> 1:05:57.640
<v Speaker 1>that only one to two percent of all people who

1:05:57.720 --> 1:06:02.480
<v Speaker 1>were infected had severe symptoms, and fifty percent of people

1:06:02.520 --> 1:06:05.640
<v Speaker 1>with severe symptoms that would be those forty seven people.

1:06:06.240 --> 1:06:09.680
<v Speaker 1>Fifty percent of those people would end up dying. That's

1:06:09.800 --> 1:06:11.840
<v Speaker 1>that's my air and math of the situation. Does that

1:06:11.880 --> 1:06:12.360
<v Speaker 1>make sense.

1:06:12.720 --> 1:06:14.480
<v Speaker 2>Yes, we don't have.

1:06:14.480 --> 1:06:16.960
<v Speaker 1>Any data to suggest that that is what happened, at

1:06:17.080 --> 1:06:20.560
<v Speaker 1>least that has been reported that I have seen. So

1:06:20.600 --> 1:06:23.520
<v Speaker 1>I'm not trying to say that these cases are actually

1:06:23.640 --> 1:06:27.160
<v Speaker 1>these outbreaks are actually thousands more than we think, but

1:06:27.400 --> 1:06:31.840
<v Speaker 1>that is one possibility. The other possibility is that case

1:06:31.880 --> 1:06:36.000
<v Speaker 1>fatality rates are indicative of much more severe illness than

1:06:36.040 --> 1:06:39.680
<v Speaker 1>we have seen in the past. And if so, why

1:06:40.160 --> 1:06:43.040
<v Speaker 1>is that because the virus is changing? Is that because

1:06:43.280 --> 1:06:46.720
<v Speaker 1>something was happening with hosts who were infected at the time.

1:06:47.520 --> 1:06:50.160
<v Speaker 1>I don't know, But there was a paper from PLUS

1:06:50.160 --> 1:06:53.600
<v Speaker 1>Neglected Tropical Disease that was the systematic review and meta

1:06:53.640 --> 1:06:57.360
<v Speaker 1>analysis of all the case reports from the last few decades.

1:06:57.400 --> 1:06:59.840
<v Speaker 1>They looked at like thirty two different studies and they

1:07:00.160 --> 1:07:05.080
<v Speaker 1>found an overall twenty one percent fatality rate among those

1:07:05.120 --> 1:07:10.000
<v Speaker 1>who had symptoms of disease. So it seems like the

1:07:10.040 --> 1:07:14.280
<v Speaker 1>mortality rate may be on the rise from with Valley fever,

1:07:14.520 --> 1:07:17.480
<v Speaker 1>and we don't as far as I read, understand what

1:07:17.800 --> 1:07:19.360
<v Speaker 1>exactly might be driving.

1:07:19.040 --> 1:07:25.200
<v Speaker 2>That, which is very interesting because, as we talked about,

1:07:25.560 --> 1:07:29.480
<v Speaker 2>the virus is not directly transmitted human to human exactly.

1:07:29.480 --> 1:07:31.600
<v Speaker 1>It is not, and there still has been no evidence

1:07:31.600 --> 1:07:32.960
<v Speaker 1>that that has started.

1:07:32.880 --> 1:07:37.120
<v Speaker 2>And so what is going on in the environment, Like

1:07:37.240 --> 1:07:42.000
<v Speaker 2>it must be something that is happening to increase the virulence.

1:07:42.240 --> 1:07:45.680
<v Speaker 2>Is there a corresponding increase in virulence in the affected

1:07:45.720 --> 1:07:46.680
<v Speaker 2>animal species?

1:07:47.040 --> 1:07:50.560
<v Speaker 1>And it's hard because it's already so virulent. So right,

1:07:50.880 --> 1:07:52.720
<v Speaker 1>how could you go up from ninety percent?

1:07:53.080 --> 1:07:53.280
<v Speaker 2>Right?

1:07:53.480 --> 1:07:58.160
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, so no, and I haven't seen data that suggests

1:07:58.200 --> 1:08:01.680
<v Speaker 1>that it's killing more animals. It's certainly still killing hundreds

1:08:01.920 --> 1:08:05.120
<v Speaker 1>tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands in many outbreaks.

1:08:06.840 --> 1:08:11.040
<v Speaker 1>But yeah, so it's it's very interesting. It's going to

1:08:11.120 --> 1:08:15.360
<v Speaker 1>be important, I think, to watch what is actually happening.

1:08:15.400 --> 1:08:18.280
<v Speaker 1>And I think too, I'm sure that especially for these

1:08:18.360 --> 1:08:21.040
<v Speaker 1>last few years of outbreaks, there will be more papers

1:08:21.040 --> 1:08:25.320
<v Speaker 1>coming out that maybe look at a larger swath of

1:08:25.360 --> 1:08:28.840
<v Speaker 1>the population where these outbreaks occurred to try and get

1:08:28.840 --> 1:08:31.800
<v Speaker 1>a sense of like, what is the zero prevalence in

1:08:31.840 --> 1:08:36.400
<v Speaker 1>that population? How big were these outbreaks really? In some

1:08:36.520 --> 1:08:40.080
<v Speaker 1>studies that have looked across like endemic areas, there have

1:08:40.280 --> 1:08:43.360
<v Speaker 1>been zero prevalence studies that have estimated anywhere from like

1:08:43.400 --> 1:08:46.240
<v Speaker 1>six to eight percent of humans and eight to twelve

1:08:46.320 --> 1:08:51.800
<v Speaker 1>percent of livestock show evidence of prior infection. So this

1:08:52.000 --> 1:08:55.920
<v Speaker 1>virus is out there circulating even when we're not necessarily

1:08:55.920 --> 1:08:59.000
<v Speaker 1>seeing it cause episootics or outbreaks in humans.

1:08:59.400 --> 1:09:01.880
<v Speaker 2>So what do we do about it all? Yeah, I

1:09:01.920 --> 1:09:04.400
<v Speaker 2>was just about to say, is there a vaccine in

1:09:04.400 --> 1:09:04.880
<v Speaker 2>the works.

1:09:05.240 --> 1:09:09.920
<v Speaker 1>There are many so there are two already at least two,

1:09:10.520 --> 1:09:12.920
<v Speaker 1>and there might be multiple versions, but there are two

1:09:13.640 --> 1:09:18.840
<v Speaker 1>that exist for animals for livestock. Neither of them are perfect.

1:09:19.320 --> 1:09:22.479
<v Speaker 1>The live vaccine is very effective. A single dose of

1:09:22.479 --> 1:09:25.519
<v Speaker 1>the live vaccine is very effective, but it has a

1:09:25.520 --> 1:09:29.160
<v Speaker 1>lot of drawbacks. It tends to cause spontaneous abortion in

1:09:29.200 --> 1:09:32.480
<v Speaker 1>animals if they are pregnant because it is a live vaccine,

1:09:32.560 --> 1:09:36.280
<v Speaker 1>even though it's less virulent. You also can't give that

1:09:36.400 --> 1:09:39.800
<v Speaker 1>vaccine during an outbreak because it can actually end up

1:09:39.920 --> 1:09:44.519
<v Speaker 1>amplifying the outbreak. And there's always a risk because it's

1:09:44.520 --> 1:09:47.639
<v Speaker 1>a live vaccine that it would then kind of mutate

1:09:47.720 --> 1:09:50.639
<v Speaker 1>back closer to the wild type and then cause disease

1:09:50.680 --> 1:09:54.200
<v Speaker 1>outbreaks amongst animals or humans. So those are the big

1:09:54.280 --> 1:09:57.840
<v Speaker 1>drawbacks of the live vaccine. There is also an inactivated vaccine.

1:09:58.320 --> 1:10:01.519
<v Speaker 1>They require multiple doses, I think at least three doses,

1:10:01.720 --> 1:10:04.439
<v Speaker 1>which makes them more difficult to implement in a lot

1:10:04.439 --> 1:10:08.240
<v Speaker 1>of areas, and they just don't provide quite as long

1:10:08.320 --> 1:10:11.960
<v Speaker 1>lasting of protection. But they also don't have the drawbacks

1:10:11.960 --> 1:10:16.720
<v Speaker 1>that the live vaccine has, so unsurprisingly, this is one

1:10:16.720 --> 1:10:21.240
<v Speaker 1>of the main areas of research is developing a vaccine,

1:10:21.400 --> 1:10:26.040
<v Speaker 1>especially one that could be used for both livestock and humans.

1:10:26.880 --> 1:10:29.599
<v Speaker 1>There's at least one that's being studied right now in

1:10:29.640 --> 1:10:32.240
<v Speaker 1>both the UK and in Uganda, or at least when

1:10:32.240 --> 1:10:34.519
<v Speaker 1>this paper was published in twenty twenty two, it was

1:10:34.720 --> 1:10:38.360
<v Speaker 1>being studied in these areas in both livestock and humans

1:10:38.640 --> 1:10:41.720
<v Speaker 1>that was using a viral vector, very similar to some

1:10:41.800 --> 1:10:44.320
<v Speaker 1>of the COVID vaccines that we saw that use like

1:10:44.360 --> 1:10:49.160
<v Speaker 1>a viral vector as a vaccine. But there's also like

1:10:50.040 --> 1:10:54.799
<v Speaker 1>a whole bunch of different vaccine candidates that people are studying.

1:10:54.960 --> 1:10:55.599
<v Speaker 2>We don't have.

1:10:55.600 --> 1:10:59.040
<v Speaker 1>Any that I saw that are super close to being

1:10:59.120 --> 1:11:01.760
<v Speaker 1>ready or use in humans.

1:11:02.200 --> 1:11:05.600
<v Speaker 2>Okay, that's disappointing.

1:11:06.160 --> 1:11:08.479
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, but maybe by the time this episode comes out

1:11:08.560 --> 1:11:11.519
<v Speaker 1>there will be a new paper that changes that, because

1:11:11.600 --> 1:11:13.160
<v Speaker 1>I mean, as of a couple years ago, they were

1:11:13.160 --> 1:11:16.200
<v Speaker 1>definitely studying it. And I think that with all of

1:11:16.240 --> 1:11:21.960
<v Speaker 1>the advancements that we've seen in vaccine platforms since COVID,

1:11:22.439 --> 1:11:25.280
<v Speaker 1>I think that we are very likely to see the

1:11:25.320 --> 1:11:28.799
<v Speaker 1>development of vaccines for viruses like rift valley fever because

1:11:28.840 --> 1:11:32.040
<v Speaker 1>of what a huge impact it has on livestock, on economics,

1:11:32.080 --> 1:11:36.000
<v Speaker 1>and on human health and public health. So there is

1:11:36.040 --> 1:11:40.160
<v Speaker 1>a vaccine that some veterinarian laboratory personnel have gotten. Oh,

1:11:40.360 --> 1:11:42.360
<v Speaker 1>there is a vaccine that people have gotten when they're

1:11:42.360 --> 1:11:44.280
<v Speaker 1>at very high risk for infection. But it's an animal

1:11:44.360 --> 1:11:47.000
<v Speaker 1>vaccine that has never been licensed or approved for use

1:11:47.479 --> 1:11:48.320
<v Speaker 1>in any country.

1:11:48.600 --> 1:11:54.360
<v Speaker 2>Interesting, Okay, yeah, someone's like, I've been vaccinated. That's very cool.

1:11:54.600 --> 1:11:58.920
<v Speaker 2>It's not approved, so.

1:11:59.000 --> 1:12:05.280
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, that's real. I feel like it is one that

1:12:05.320 --> 1:12:08.559
<v Speaker 1>should get more pressed than it has gotten perhaps, well,

1:12:08.640 --> 1:12:10.480
<v Speaker 1>I mean more nervous.

1:12:10.720 --> 1:12:13.800
<v Speaker 2>Absolutely, I feel like, yes, it is a scary and

1:12:13.840 --> 1:12:20.519
<v Speaker 2>potentially very impactful disease in a public health context, but

1:12:20.720 --> 1:12:27.360
<v Speaker 2>also just as a livestock disease. It's so economically devastating

1:12:27.439 --> 1:12:32.280
<v Speaker 2>and traumatizing, yes, because, like I just again, from one

1:12:32.320 --> 1:12:34.639
<v Speaker 2>day to the next, or like one week to the next,

1:12:34.760 --> 1:12:37.880
<v Speaker 2>you could lose your entire herd, your entire livelihood.

1:12:38.240 --> 1:12:41.360
<v Speaker 1>It's I mean absolutely dosting the size of some of

1:12:41.400 --> 1:12:43.519
<v Speaker 1>these outbreaks. And we'll link to some papers that have

1:12:44.080 --> 1:12:46.559
<v Speaker 1>kind of details on all of the dozens of outbreaks

1:12:46.560 --> 1:12:48.840
<v Speaker 1>that have happened over even just the past twenty years.

1:12:49.160 --> 1:12:52.800
<v Speaker 1>I mean, some of them have been hundreds of thousands

1:12:53.320 --> 1:12:55.559
<v Speaker 1>of livestock it's just I mean.

1:12:55.479 --> 1:13:01.280
<v Speaker 2>Horrific, unfathomable. Yeah. Yeah, Well, speaking of sources, shall we

1:13:01.479 --> 1:13:04.439
<v Speaker 2>share some sources? Let's share so you can read some more. Okay,

1:13:04.960 --> 1:13:08.200
<v Speaker 2>I'm going to shout out three in particular by Baba

1:13:08.200 --> 1:13:11.799
<v Speaker 2>at All from twenty sixteen. Has rift valley fever virus

1:13:11.880 --> 1:13:16.960
<v Speaker 2>evolved with increasing severity in human populations in East Africa

1:13:17.040 --> 1:13:20.400
<v Speaker 2>by mc millan and Hartman from twenty eighteen, Rift Valley

1:13:20.400 --> 1:13:25.240
<v Speaker 2>Fever in Animals and Humans Current Perspectives. And that modeling

1:13:25.280 --> 1:13:27.800
<v Speaker 2>paper that I mentioned in the last bit of the

1:13:27.880 --> 1:13:31.680
<v Speaker 2>history by Chemisen at All from twenty twenty four Ability

1:13:31.720 --> 1:13:35.479
<v Speaker 2>of a dynamical climate sensitive model to reproduce historical rift

1:13:35.520 --> 1:13:37.519
<v Speaker 2>valley fever outbreaks over Africa.

1:13:38.200 --> 1:13:41.200
<v Speaker 1>I have a number of papers, a couple that I

1:13:41.200 --> 1:13:43.120
<v Speaker 1>wanted to give a shout out to. When was that

1:13:43.160 --> 1:13:46.240
<v Speaker 1>plus neglected Tropical disease paper? It was from twenty twenty two.

1:13:47.000 --> 1:13:50.160
<v Speaker 1>It was titled Clinical Manifestations of riftflly Fever in Human

1:13:50.320 --> 1:13:53.880
<v Speaker 1>Systematic Review and Meta Analysis. Another was from the Journal

1:13:53.880 --> 1:13:56.960
<v Speaker 1>of Veterinary Research from twenty twenty one called riftfallly fever

1:13:57.040 --> 1:14:00.400
<v Speaker 1>a growing threat to humans and animals, And there was

1:14:00.439 --> 1:14:03.360
<v Speaker 1>a number of other ones, so we will post the

1:14:03.479 --> 1:14:06.720
<v Speaker 1>list of all of our sources from this episode and

1:14:07.000 --> 1:14:09.200
<v Speaker 1>every single one of our episodes. You can get so

1:14:09.560 --> 1:14:14.280
<v Speaker 1>deep on the neuropathophysiology on our website This podcast will

1:14:14.320 --> 1:14:15.920
<v Speaker 1>Kill You dot com under the episode STAB.

1:14:16.360 --> 1:14:19.040
<v Speaker 2>Thank you to Bloodmobile for providing the music for this

1:14:19.160 --> 1:14:21.160
<v Speaker 2>episode and all of our episodes.

1:14:21.680 --> 1:14:24.320
<v Speaker 1>Thank you to Tom Bryfogal and Leona Scilaci for the

1:14:24.560 --> 1:14:25.599
<v Speaker 1>audio mixing.

1:14:26.160 --> 1:14:28.120
<v Speaker 2>Thank you to everyone at Exactly Right.

1:14:28.760 --> 1:14:32.000
<v Speaker 1>And thank you to you listeners. I hope that you

1:14:32.120 --> 1:14:33.520
<v Speaker 1>enjoyed this episode.

1:14:33.880 --> 1:14:38.360
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I hope you learned something new. That's always my hope.

1:14:38.560 --> 1:14:39.400
<v Speaker 2>I certainly did.

1:14:39.720 --> 1:14:42.080
<v Speaker 1>It's our favorite thing is to learn new things.

1:14:42.200 --> 1:14:45.760
<v Speaker 2>It truly, truly is. Yeah. And a special thank you

1:14:45.880 --> 1:14:50.040
<v Speaker 2>to our wonderful patrons. We appreciate your support so so

1:14:50.240 --> 1:14:52.360
<v Speaker 2>very much. It really means a lot to us, it

1:14:52.400 --> 1:14:56.519
<v Speaker 2>really does. Thank you. Well. Until next time, wash your

1:14:56.520 --> 1:14:58.120
<v Speaker 2>hands you feelthy animals.

1:15:04.320 --> 1:15:12.400
<v Speaker 1>Bumba buba, bumba

1:15:15.240 --> 1:15:19.920
<v Speaker 2>Bumbo ba