1 00:00:02,400 --> 00:00:08,480 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio News. This is another very 2 00:00:08,520 --> 00:00:09,639 Speaker 1: strong jobs report. 3 00:00:09,920 --> 00:00:11,320 Speaker 2: I'm not going to get tired of coming here and 4 00:00:11,360 --> 00:00:15,480 Speaker 2: telling you that we are continuing to experience very strong, 5 00:00:15,640 --> 00:00:17,840 Speaker 2: stable and steady growth. So it's two hundred and seventy 6 00:00:17,840 --> 00:00:19,720 Speaker 2: two thousand jobs created last month. 7 00:00:20,040 --> 00:00:22,720 Speaker 1: The unemployment rate has remained at. 8 00:00:22,480 --> 00:00:27,040 Speaker 2: Or below four percent for thirty months straight. That's still 9 00:00:27,120 --> 00:00:30,280 Speaker 2: the longest since the nineteen sixties. And at the same time, 10 00:00:30,360 --> 00:00:32,800 Speaker 2: real wages, you know, over the year are up four 11 00:00:32,800 --> 00:00:36,760 Speaker 2: point one percent, So workers are doing better in an 12 00:00:36,800 --> 00:00:39,440 Speaker 2: economy in which the President has said, when we focus 13 00:00:39,520 --> 00:00:41,640 Speaker 2: on workers and worker well being, we're going to do 14 00:00:41,680 --> 00:00:44,120 Speaker 2: what's right for the economy and for the country. 15 00:00:44,200 --> 00:00:46,200 Speaker 3: When you look under the hood, you find that four 16 00:00:46,280 --> 00:00:48,960 Speaker 3: hundred thousand, even more than four hundred thousand people left 17 00:00:48,960 --> 00:00:52,640 Speaker 3: the labor force in May. The participation rate is not 18 00:00:52,800 --> 00:00:55,680 Speaker 3: back where it was before COVID. Right now, how do 19 00:00:55,720 --> 00:00:56,640 Speaker 3: you explain that? 20 00:00:56,880 --> 00:00:59,480 Speaker 2: Well, so let's say, you know, the prime age labor 21 00:00:59,480 --> 00:01:03,000 Speaker 2: force PARTESIS patient rate remains very very strong, and it's 22 00:01:03,040 --> 00:01:06,960 Speaker 2: worth noting that again women's labor first participation. 23 00:01:06,440 --> 00:01:08,600 Speaker 1: Rate hit another historic high. 24 00:01:08,680 --> 00:01:11,200 Speaker 2: So last month we said it was the highest since 25 00:01:11,319 --> 00:01:14,880 Speaker 2: nineteen forty eight when this data was begun to be collected. 26 00:01:15,160 --> 00:01:16,760 Speaker 1: It's now a little bit higher than that. 27 00:01:16,920 --> 00:01:21,920 Speaker 2: Even so, women continue to power our economic recovery. At 28 00:01:21,959 --> 00:01:25,039 Speaker 2: the same time, you know, we are seeing again strong participation. 29 00:01:25,120 --> 00:01:27,040 Speaker 2: People are in the job market. People have come off 30 00:01:27,080 --> 00:01:30,039 Speaker 2: the sidelines. People are looking for jobs and they're finding them. 31 00:01:30,280 --> 00:01:32,520 Speaker 2: Where there has been a little bit of you know, 32 00:01:32,560 --> 00:01:36,360 Speaker 2: of a very small uptick in the unemployment rate again 33 00:01:36,480 --> 00:01:39,360 Speaker 2: still at or below four percent for the longest stretch 34 00:01:39,640 --> 00:01:44,120 Speaker 2: in decades, but has to do with young people ages 35 00:01:44,160 --> 00:01:47,480 Speaker 2: twenty to twenty four, who are in a bit of transition. Really, 36 00:01:47,480 --> 00:01:49,320 Speaker 2: if we think about May, right May is a period 37 00:01:49,320 --> 00:01:52,600 Speaker 2: of transition for all of us, parents with kids who 38 00:01:53,280 --> 00:01:56,640 Speaker 2: graduate and maybe move and you know, are looking for 39 00:01:56,680 --> 00:01:57,920 Speaker 2: different jobs during that time. 40 00:01:58,040 --> 00:01:59,480 Speaker 3: You can tell a great story and put a great 41 00:01:59,480 --> 00:02:03,280 Speaker 3: headline number on that unemployment story as you are right now. 42 00:02:03,520 --> 00:02:05,480 Speaker 3: But when you look under the hood, you do see 43 00:02:05,480 --> 00:02:08,680 Speaker 3: some elements of weakness compared to the payroll survey. And 44 00:02:08,720 --> 00:02:10,640 Speaker 3: I wonder, while your happy word is now, if you 45 00:02:10,680 --> 00:02:12,600 Speaker 3: worry about where we're going to be six months from now, 46 00:02:12,600 --> 00:02:15,040 Speaker 3: if this is a slowing job market. 47 00:02:14,760 --> 00:02:17,639 Speaker 2: Well, the payroll survey really is the gold standard when 48 00:02:17,680 --> 00:02:20,000 Speaker 2: it comes to the unemployment rate, right, this is the 49 00:02:20,440 --> 00:02:23,520 Speaker 2: you know, it's the largest by far of any data set, 50 00:02:23,560 --> 00:02:26,840 Speaker 2: including the household survey that is used. And so again, 51 00:02:26,840 --> 00:02:29,480 Speaker 2: I don't think there's any way to paint this as 52 00:02:29,600 --> 00:02:33,840 Speaker 2: other than continued, strong, stable and steady growth under President 53 00:02:33,840 --> 00:02:36,880 Speaker 2: Biden's leadership and proof of his theory that if we 54 00:02:37,200 --> 00:02:41,000 Speaker 2: invest in America, we can create good jobs in communities 55 00:02:41,160 --> 00:02:43,960 Speaker 2: and crowd in private investment in order to do that. 56 00:02:44,240 --> 00:02:46,840 Speaker 2: And you know, as I travel the country, I'm seeing 57 00:02:46,880 --> 00:02:47,760 Speaker 2: the benefits of that. 58 00:02:48,040 --> 00:02:50,919 Speaker 3: We've talked a lot about the impacts that immigration has 59 00:02:51,080 --> 00:02:53,839 Speaker 3: on our job market. It can be for better or worse, 60 00:02:53,919 --> 00:02:56,399 Speaker 3: depending on the trend that you're looking at. And there's 61 00:02:56,400 --> 00:02:59,600 Speaker 3: an analysis from Steve England Standard Chartered Bank that we 62 00:02:59,639 --> 00:03:01,840 Speaker 3: looked at this week that estimates about half of the 63 00:03:01,919 --> 00:03:07,160 Speaker 3: job growth since October can be attributed to undocumented migrants. 64 00:03:07,240 --> 00:03:08,959 Speaker 3: That it's somewhere in the area of one hundred and 65 00:03:09,040 --> 00:03:12,600 Speaker 3: nine thousand a month. If the President's executive order put 66 00:03:12,639 --> 00:03:16,720 Speaker 3: in place just days ago lowers the threshold, lowers the 67 00:03:16,800 --> 00:03:19,840 Speaker 3: numbers of undocumented immigrants entering the country, what does that 68 00:03:19,919 --> 00:03:22,200 Speaker 3: mean for the job market. Do you see numbers like 69 00:03:22,200 --> 00:03:23,000 Speaker 3: that in you're modeling. 70 00:03:23,200 --> 00:03:24,760 Speaker 1: I mean, I haven't seen that study. 71 00:03:24,840 --> 00:03:27,680 Speaker 2: I would actually question those numbers based on what we see. 72 00:03:28,680 --> 00:03:32,720 Speaker 2: This is a situation where one we're not talking about 73 00:03:33,000 --> 00:03:36,920 Speaker 2: dividing a small pie into smaller pieces. 74 00:03:36,920 --> 00:03:38,920 Speaker 1: We're talking about a much bigger pie overall. 75 00:03:39,080 --> 00:03:41,880 Speaker 2: So more jobs, more people in the labor market, more 76 00:03:41,920 --> 00:03:45,040 Speaker 2: opportunity for all. Since the President came into office, again, 77 00:03:45,080 --> 00:03:48,120 Speaker 2: we've talked about this, you know, fifteen million jobs created. 78 00:03:48,160 --> 00:03:52,560 Speaker 2: That is a fifteen million families, fifteen million individuals who 79 00:03:52,600 --> 00:03:55,840 Speaker 2: are having the benefits of a good job that might 80 00:03:55,880 --> 00:03:58,560 Speaker 2: not have had that before. I would also say that 81 00:03:58,680 --> 00:04:01,440 Speaker 2: it is true that there has been you know, immigration 82 00:04:01,520 --> 00:04:03,840 Speaker 2: based growth also, and that has been true throughout our 83 00:04:03,880 --> 00:04:07,360 Speaker 2: nation's history, right that immigrants have helped to do jobs 84 00:04:07,480 --> 00:04:08,640 Speaker 2: and help field the economy. 85 00:04:08,680 --> 00:04:11,560 Speaker 1: But the majority of this job growth. 86 00:04:11,320 --> 00:04:14,440 Speaker 2: That we're talking about has gone to native born workers. 87 00:04:14,520 --> 00:04:16,799 Speaker 3: We'll talk to me about the other side of this story, 88 00:04:17,120 --> 00:04:20,680 Speaker 3: and that's immigration reform H one B, H two B. 89 00:04:20,800 --> 00:04:24,800 Speaker 3: We spend all day talking about border security in Washington. 90 00:04:25,200 --> 00:04:28,320 Speaker 3: What does our job market need in terms of attracting 91 00:04:28,400 --> 00:04:30,279 Speaker 3: talent from other countries legally? 92 00:04:30,600 --> 00:04:32,280 Speaker 1: I mean, it's such an important question, right. 93 00:04:32,320 --> 00:04:35,599 Speaker 2: This is why since day one, President Biden has called 94 00:04:35,600 --> 00:04:38,919 Speaker 2: for the kinds of comprehensive immigration reform that would address, 95 00:04:39,320 --> 00:04:41,680 Speaker 2: you know, some of the challenges that our system has created. 96 00:04:42,000 --> 00:04:44,440 Speaker 1: Job market look like with that help, what what our 97 00:04:44,480 --> 00:04:46,800 Speaker 1: job market look like with you got that reform? Right? 98 00:04:46,839 --> 00:04:49,039 Speaker 2: Well, so we do administer you know, we have in 99 00:04:49,080 --> 00:04:52,200 Speaker 2: this administration increase the number of H two B workers 100 00:04:52,200 --> 00:04:54,760 Speaker 2: that have come in. We recently did a rule around 101 00:04:55,800 --> 00:04:59,279 Speaker 2: H two A workers making sure that when migrant workers 102 00:04:59,360 --> 00:05:01,800 Speaker 2: come to this country through legal means that they're also 103 00:05:01,839 --> 00:05:06,159 Speaker 2: protected right, that they are protected for their own good 104 00:05:06,200 --> 00:05:09,920 Speaker 2: but also so that they're being here doesn't take away 105 00:05:09,960 --> 00:05:14,080 Speaker 2: from you know, the good wages in those industries. So 106 00:05:14,360 --> 00:05:17,320 Speaker 2: you know, but the bigger picture is that there does 107 00:05:17,440 --> 00:05:20,160 Speaker 2: need to be comprehensive reform. The President has called for that, 108 00:05:20,279 --> 00:05:22,200 Speaker 2: and frankly, Congress needs to do its job. 109 00:05:22,560 --> 00:05:24,640 Speaker 3: There's something that I don't want to get too deep 110 00:05:24,640 --> 00:05:27,120 Speaker 3: in the weeds called the birth death model that our 111 00:05:27,279 --> 00:05:30,360 Speaker 3: analysts set Bloomberg Economics, are looking at that would suggest 112 00:05:30,720 --> 00:05:33,160 Speaker 3: some of the companies that we've seen closing might not 113 00:05:33,200 --> 00:05:35,640 Speaker 3: be reflected yet in the numbers that we saw in 114 00:05:35,680 --> 00:05:40,360 Speaker 3: this monthly survey based on layoff announcements corporate closures. Where 115 00:05:40,360 --> 00:05:42,240 Speaker 3: do we look in the middle of summer when these 116 00:05:42,320 --> 00:05:43,400 Speaker 3: numbers start to emerge. 117 00:05:43,760 --> 00:05:46,080 Speaker 2: Well, you know, we will come out every month to 118 00:05:46,160 --> 00:05:48,920 Speaker 2: report the data that we have. But everything that we 119 00:05:49,000 --> 00:05:52,960 Speaker 2: have seen this past month, this past year, as well 120 00:05:53,000 --> 00:05:56,200 Speaker 2: as you know the last year since President Biden came 121 00:05:56,240 --> 00:05:57,080 Speaker 2: to office, is. 122 00:05:57,400 --> 00:05:59,840 Speaker 1: Historic job growth, more jobs created. 123 00:06:00,160 --> 00:06:04,080 Speaker 2: The same time period than any president in our history, 124 00:06:04,560 --> 00:06:09,280 Speaker 2: and continued low levels of unemployment again historic lows, and 125 00:06:09,960 --> 00:06:12,479 Speaker 2: more opportunity to come right. The investments in the President's 126 00:06:12,520 --> 00:06:15,760 Speaker 2: Investing in America agenda, many of them are still coming out. 127 00:06:15,800 --> 00:06:17,400 Speaker 1: And that's why this summer I'm. 128 00:06:17,200 --> 00:06:20,680 Speaker 2: Going across the country talking about good Job Summer and 129 00:06:20,720 --> 00:06:23,880 Speaker 2: focusing on the importance of what a good job does. 130 00:06:23,839 --> 00:06:28,120 Speaker 3: Good job principles. Summer Tour, You're like Beyonce, You're launching 131 00:06:28,160 --> 00:06:30,440 Speaker 3: a national tour and it's not a mistake. I see 132 00:06:30,560 --> 00:06:33,120 Speaker 3: some of the states are going through, like Pennsylvania and Michigan. 133 00:06:33,160 --> 00:06:35,000 Speaker 3: What is your message to voters in those states? 134 00:06:35,320 --> 00:06:38,640 Speaker 2: Well, my message to working people is that we see you, 135 00:06:38,800 --> 00:06:41,840 Speaker 2: we have your back, We know that you have talent 136 00:06:41,920 --> 00:06:43,919 Speaker 2: and desire, and we want to create the kinds of 137 00:06:43,920 --> 00:06:46,640 Speaker 2: opportunities that will allow working people to have a good 138 00:06:46,680 --> 00:06:49,600 Speaker 2: job where they can be paid a living wage and 139 00:06:49,640 --> 00:06:52,159 Speaker 2: live a secure life. And our message generally is that 140 00:06:52,200 --> 00:06:56,479 Speaker 2: when you build a workforce that is ready, that is trained, 141 00:06:56,520 --> 00:06:58,840 Speaker 2: that is skilled, that pulls the full talent of the 142 00:06:58,880 --> 00:07:02,240 Speaker 2: American people, it's good for employers, it's good for economy. 143 00:07:02,400 --> 00:07:04,360 Speaker 1: And we see that time and time again in these 144 00:07:04,440 --> 00:07:05,039 Speaker 1: jobs numbers. 145 00:07:05,320 --> 00:07:07,960 Speaker 3: Getting back to the household survey, which is important to 146 00:07:08,040 --> 00:07:10,960 Speaker 3: us and our viewers and listeners. The fact that it 147 00:07:11,000 --> 00:07:14,760 Speaker 3: reflects agriculture, the fact that it reflects what's happening in 148 00:07:14,800 --> 00:07:19,680 Speaker 3: people's households. Does that not raise the level of importance 149 00:07:19,680 --> 00:07:21,560 Speaker 3: of the household survey at this point? When we look 150 00:07:21,600 --> 00:07:24,080 Speaker 3: at that against payrolls, they get a sense of not 151 00:07:24,400 --> 00:07:26,200 Speaker 3: even as much where we are now, but where we're going. 152 00:07:26,800 --> 00:07:29,320 Speaker 2: I mean, I think the bigger you know, the answer 153 00:07:29,440 --> 00:07:33,440 Speaker 2: is the payroll survey is the survey that tells us 154 00:07:33,560 --> 00:07:36,240 Speaker 2: how many jobs have been created, what industries they'd be 155 00:07:36,280 --> 00:07:38,360 Speaker 2: created in. And again, this the growth we're talking about 156 00:07:38,440 --> 00:07:41,080 Speaker 2: is not just single industry, right, it has been for 157 00:07:41,120 --> 00:07:44,360 Speaker 2: the entire time, but certainly this last month is no different, 158 00:07:44,800 --> 00:07:48,440 Speaker 2: very very broad based. We saw growth in leisure and hospitality, 159 00:07:48,760 --> 00:07:51,960 Speaker 2: we saw it in construction, we saw it in professional services, 160 00:07:52,480 --> 00:07:55,320 Speaker 2: we saw it in healthcare, and so you know. 161 00:07:55,360 --> 00:07:56,840 Speaker 1: There's really the numbers don't lie. 162 00:07:57,280 --> 00:08:01,760 Speaker 2: It's really you know, broad based, solid continued growth. And 163 00:08:01,800 --> 00:08:04,320 Speaker 2: I think that coveted soft landing that so many people 164 00:08:04,600 --> 00:08:05,239 Speaker 2: bet against. 165 00:08:05,360 --> 00:08:07,600 Speaker 3: Well, I haven't even mentioned that yet. It's my job 166 00:08:07,640 --> 00:08:09,320 Speaker 3: to ask you if we're in the soft landing. I 167 00:08:09,320 --> 00:08:12,880 Speaker 3: haven't heard words like goldilocks this morning. What's your broader 168 00:08:13,040 --> 00:08:15,920 Speaker 3: thirty thousand foot view on that. You're looking at your 169 00:08:15,920 --> 00:08:18,080 Speaker 3: slice of the economy, that's the labor market. Is a 170 00:08:18,080 --> 00:08:19,120 Speaker 3: soft landing intact? 171 00:08:19,600 --> 00:08:20,160 Speaker 1: I think so. 172 00:08:20,320 --> 00:08:22,360 Speaker 2: I mean again, it's the kind of thing where we're 173 00:08:22,440 --> 00:08:26,280 Speaker 2: always vigilant about where the economy is going, but based 174 00:08:26,320 --> 00:08:28,800 Speaker 2: on where we were. Remember in twenty twenty one, right 175 00:08:28,800 --> 00:08:31,640 Speaker 2: the president came into office, COVID was raging, there was 176 00:08:31,680 --> 00:08:33,240 Speaker 2: no national strategy to address it. 177 00:08:33,320 --> 00:08:34,920 Speaker 1: Unemployment was very very high. 178 00:08:35,040 --> 00:08:36,640 Speaker 2: People didn't know if they were gonna get toilet paper 179 00:08:36,679 --> 00:08:39,280 Speaker 2: if they went to the supermarket. And now we have 180 00:08:39,600 --> 00:08:42,720 Speaker 2: historic job growth, low levels of unemployment. I think it 181 00:08:42,760 --> 00:08:44,720 Speaker 2: is the very definition of a soft landing. 182 00:08:45,320 --> 00:08:47,920 Speaker 3: You mentioned COVID. It's not the first time we've brought 183 00:08:47,920 --> 00:08:51,160 Speaker 3: this up as a barometer or maybe a baseline for 184 00:08:51,240 --> 00:08:53,920 Speaker 3: where we are now versus where we were before the pandemic. 185 00:08:54,120 --> 00:08:56,600 Speaker 3: It's still impossible to forecast, isn't it. You see these 186 00:08:56,640 --> 00:08:59,960 Speaker 3: payroll numbers blowing off the charts based on estimates no, 187 00:09:00,040 --> 00:09:02,480 Speaker 3: not just by the government but by Wall Street and 188 00:09:02,559 --> 00:09:04,800 Speaker 3: economists who are a lot smarter than I am. When 189 00:09:04,840 --> 00:09:06,880 Speaker 3: will we be able to get a handle on what 190 00:09:07,000 --> 00:09:08,120 Speaker 3: comes next? 191 00:09:08,760 --> 00:09:11,320 Speaker 2: Well, I mean, I think you know the reality is. 192 00:09:11,480 --> 00:09:13,760 Speaker 2: That's why we don't look at any one month's numbers, 193 00:09:13,800 --> 00:09:17,000 Speaker 2: as you know, over relying on them to tell a story. 194 00:09:17,240 --> 00:09:21,280 Speaker 2: But the story of this economy from January twenty twenty 195 00:09:21,280 --> 00:09:26,880 Speaker 2: one until now is of steady, stable growth, shared prosperity, 196 00:09:27,320 --> 00:09:28,960 Speaker 2: and more investments to come. 197 00:09:29,000 --> 00:09:31,000 Speaker 1: We know that, you know that there's more work to do. 198 00:09:31,040 --> 00:09:32,599 Speaker 1: We're also seeing the lowest. 199 00:09:32,280 --> 00:09:35,720 Speaker 2: Levels of like black white unemployment in a very long time, 200 00:09:35,760 --> 00:09:38,679 Speaker 2: so it's equitable growth too, and that matters a lot. 201 00:09:38,960 --> 00:09:42,040 Speaker 3: What would a second Biden term mean for the job market? 202 00:09:42,480 --> 00:09:44,640 Speaker 2: I think we continue to deliver, right, We continue to 203 00:09:44,880 --> 00:09:49,000 Speaker 2: build a strong economy, We continue to invest in American 204 00:09:49,080 --> 00:09:50,080 Speaker 2: industry in a way. 205 00:09:49,960 --> 00:09:53,120 Speaker 1: That hasn't been done in decades. So building, you. 206 00:09:53,080 --> 00:09:55,920 Speaker 2: Know, restoring roads and bridges, making sure that every family 207 00:09:55,920 --> 00:09:58,679 Speaker 2: who turns on the fossgate clean drinking water, making sure 208 00:09:58,720 --> 00:10:01,040 Speaker 2: that everybody breathes clean air, has access to high speed, 209 00:10:01,080 --> 00:10:04,200 Speaker 2: reliable internet. Those are the kind of infrastructure investments. You know, 210 00:10:04,240 --> 00:10:07,720 Speaker 2: we're you know, we want to build the things that 211 00:10:07,760 --> 00:10:10,960 Speaker 2: we invented, right, So bringing manufacturing back to the United States, 212 00:10:11,120 --> 00:10:14,040 Speaker 2: I think it means, you know, continued opportunity for the 213 00:10:14,080 --> 00:10:14,760 Speaker 2: American people. 214 00:10:14,840 --> 00:10:16,720 Speaker 3: Will you still be in this building if there's a 215 00:10:16,760 --> 00:10:18,600 Speaker 3: second term, Well. 216 00:10:18,720 --> 00:10:20,560 Speaker 2: You know, I don't want to make predictions about that. 217 00:10:20,559 --> 00:10:22,040 Speaker 2: I do serve us the pleasure of the President, but 218 00:10:22,080 --> 00:10:24,040 Speaker 2: it has been an honor to help to deliver on 219 00:10:24,120 --> 00:10:24,600 Speaker 2: that vision.