Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. I'm Stephen Carol and
Speaker 1: this is Here's Why, where we take one news story
Speaker 1: and explain it in just a few minutes with our
Speaker 1: experts here at Bloomberg. Since the Hamas attack on Israel
Speaker 1: on the seventh of October and the war in Gaza
Speaker 1: that's followed, tensions in the Middle East have been running high,
Speaker 1: with little sign of improvement.
Speaker 2: Israel is threatening further military action after striking Hasbella targets
Speaker 2: in Lebanon in response to a rocket attack that killed
Speaker 2: a dozen young people in the Israeli occupied Golan Heights.
Speaker 1: Hamas says Israel killed its political leader Ismail Hania in
Speaker 1: an airstrike on Tehran. The recent headlines have been dominated
Speaker 1: by repeated attacks, assassinations, and fears of a wider regional war,
Speaker 1: but in the background, there's also been talking negotiations over
Speaker 1: a truce in Gaza and attempts to de escalate the
Speaker 1: conflict between Israel, Iran and the Hamas and Hezbala groups,
Speaker 1: which are backed by Tehran. So Here's why diplomacy still
Speaker 1: matters in the Middle East. Our head of Middle East
Speaker 1: and North Africa coverage, Stuart Livingston Wallas joins me. Now, Stewart,
Speaker 1: there's been so much violence over the past few months,
Speaker 1: what are diplomats doing about it?
Speaker 3: So it's basically been an escalation, I would say, certainly
Speaker 3: on the military fund, but particularly on the diplomatic front. Now,
Speaker 3: it's also true to say that diplomacy has a thread
Speaker 3: that's been running pretty consistently in the region, but particularly
Speaker 3: since this all sort of started on this latest phase
Speaker 3: start in October. But really we've had these two assassinations,
Speaker 3: one in Beirut of the Hesbala leader and one of
Speaker 3: her Nie, who was one of the Hamas or the
Speaker 3: Hamasis political leader in Tehran, and I think the feeling
Speaker 3: was that Iran would have to retaliate in some fashion,
Speaker 3: and because it was so deeply embarrassing for someone of
Speaker 3: her nearest in Tehran who had been invited to the
Speaker 3: inauguration of the Iranian president basically gets assassinated under their noses,
Speaker 3: So it's not a great look for them. And I
Speaker 3: think the fear was that Iran would have to respond,
Speaker 3: or felt it would have to respond far more aggressively
Speaker 3: than it did in April. So April, the April incident
Speaker 3: was the one where it sent something in the order
Speaker 3: three three hundred and fifty drones that missiles directly at
Speaker 3: Israel and now they were successfully intercepted, almost without exception.
Speaker 3: But the real worry was that if they did something
Speaker 3: even bigger than that, however well calibrated they thought it
Speaker 3: would be, so you had an exponential increase in the
Speaker 3: risk that it would hit a target or hit a
Speaker 3: population that was perhaps not intended, but would in turn
Speaker 3: force Israel to respond on an even grander scale. So
Speaker 3: you've seen lots of leaders come in there. You have
Speaker 3: the usual actors that you've seen in the last several
Speaker 3: months of people like Anthony Blinkholm. But I think more
Speaker 3: importantly you have Russia that has sent its former army
Speaker 3: chief Gantataey Iran for discussions. You have the French president
Speaker 3: again contacting Iran directly, and I think the messaging around
Speaker 3: this is very clear, Please do not escalate. There is
Speaker 3: nothing to be gained from escalation. And what's interesting is that,
Speaker 3: at least so far, it seems.
Speaker 1: To be working quite about progress towards a broader ceasefire
Speaker 1: or truce in Gaza. What sort of progress has been
Speaker 1: made in those discussions.
Speaker 3: I think there were worries that when Hernia, that is
Speaker 3: that her mass's political leader was assassinated, they gave that
Speaker 3: job to basically the leader in Gaza, sinwall and Sinhwar
Speaker 3: is sort of the hard liner on this, I mean,
Speaker 3: the kind of all our hard lines, but he is
Speaker 3: a particular hardliner. He's also perceived as one of the
Speaker 3: masterminds of the October seventh attack on Israel from Gaza.
Speaker 3: The reality is that he was probably making most of
Speaker 3: the final decisions on the ceasefire negotiations in any case,
Speaker 3: So I think our big takeaway from this is that, hey,
Speaker 3: it clearly was her Mass trying to send a message
Speaker 3: to the wider world of what their intention was, but
Speaker 3: at the same time, it probably didn't change the ultimate
Speaker 3: decision maker. I think the feeling within certainly diplomatic circles
Speaker 3: trying to de escalate the situation is that you have
Speaker 3: to have some sort of resolution in Gaza before you
Speaker 3: can hope to make progress on any of the other
Speaker 3: multiple conflicts now, particularly Lebanon. That is one that continues
Speaker 3: to worry us, particularly at Yemen Gaza, and what's happened
Speaker 3: in Gaza since October has really been the foundation for
Speaker 3: a lot of the rhetorica around why these groups, and
Speaker 3: they are for the most part Iranian fact are unleashing
Speaker 3: these assaults on the wide region. And I remind everyone
Speaker 3: it's not just Israel that they're attacking. There is this
Speaker 3: ongoing series of attacks on commercial shipping moving through the
Speaker 3: Red Sea, the Gulf of Hermad and so on, and
Speaker 3: that really has had a global impact. Has progress been made,
Speaker 3: I mean, we hear repeatedly from particularly the US administration
Speaker 3: that they're getting cl There's no reason to disbelieve that.
Speaker 3: But again, there is a fundamental block here, which is
Speaker 3: that Israel has said that it must or its intention
Speaker 3: is that it must destroy the her Mass leadership and
Speaker 3: ensure that her Mask can never again have any sort
Speaker 3: of sway in Gaza before it's prepared to accept some
Speaker 3: sort of peace. Obviously, its counterparty with its negotiations is
Speaker 3: her Mass that is very unlikely ever to agree to that.
Speaker 3: So whether they can find some sort of path to
Speaker 3: some sort of peace remains to be seen.
Speaker 1: The top US Depromt Anthony Blinken, Secuty Estate, has made
Speaker 1: many visits to the Middle East since last October. How
Speaker 1: important is US influence in this region.
Speaker 3: Extremely because the short answer, I mean it's waxed and
Speaker 3: waned over the years. So it looked fairly clear a
Speaker 3: couple of administrations and goes, probably starting with Obama but
Speaker 3: then certainly into Trump, that the US appetite for sort
Speaker 3: of mass deployments in the Middle East was very much diminishing. Now,
Speaker 3: in part that was a function of the fact of
Speaker 3: the rise of China, and there were obviously going to
Speaker 3: be increasing pressure over the next several years in the
Speaker 3: Western Pacific, and enormous though US military power is, it
Speaker 3: couldn't necessarily deploy on the scale it needed to, both
Speaker 3: in the Middle East and in the Pacific as well
Speaker 3: as many other places. And so you saw this move
Speaker 3: out of the region. I would say it's somewhat by
Speaker 3: the US. You had the Abraham the Calls, which are
Speaker 3: the sort of piece deals between some of the Arab
Speaker 3: nations and Israel, and in some respects that was the
Speaker 3: US trying to find some sort of balance of power
Speaker 3: in a scenario where the US would remain present, perhaps
Speaker 3: not on the scale that people have got used in
Speaker 3: previous years. Now, clearly that's been derailed pretty dramatically by
Speaker 3: what's been happening in Gaza and elsewhere in the region,
Speaker 3: and so the US has had to effectively move back
Speaker 3: into the region. It's sent in a carrier strike group,
Speaker 3: it's sending in squadron of fighter jets, it's having to
Speaker 3: send in additional destroyers. So in some respects it's had
Speaker 3: to u turn as a function of the fact that
Speaker 3: this threat is now spread right across the region.
Speaker 1: Who are the other key actors in the diplomatic efforts, Well,
Speaker 1: the other.
Speaker 3: One we haven't mentioned to date, and who is a very,
Speaker 3: very weighty actor in all of this is Katar, and
Speaker 3: Katar is often the one that gets forgotten about. I mean,
Speaker 3: just to set the scene for people, this is a
Speaker 3: relatively small sliver of land that juts out into the
Speaker 3: Persian Gulf. But by the end of this decade, they're
Speaker 3: going to be controlling something like a quarter of the
Speaker 3: world's liquefied natural gas supply. Now, with all this money
Speaker 3: that has come in in the last I suppose twenty
Speaker 3: five thirty years, they are building out on several fronts.
Speaker 3: So the one I suspect everyone is aware of is
Speaker 3: obviously hosting the World Cup, but they've obviously been buying companies.
Speaker 3: They've been buying real estate or around the place. But
Speaker 3: the other key thing that they're doing is becoming effectively
Speaker 3: one of the major negotiators and mediators in the region.
Speaker 3: So they've been involved in all sorts of things, everything
Speaker 3: from hosting the Taliban to hosting her Mass and that
Speaker 3: obviously was done in coordination with the US. They host
Speaker 3: a gigantic US base, hosts a very substantial Turkish space,
Speaker 3: and they're really kind of the mediators between lots and
Speaker 3: lots of warring parties all over the world. Now they're
Speaker 3: key in this one because they were, or they have
Speaker 3: been and continue to be one of the really strong
Speaker 3: players in these ceasfile negotiations. They were certainly one of
Speaker 3: the mediators involved in the rather short lived seas far
Speaker 3: that we saw several months ago that led to the
Speaker 3: release of some hostage and a temporary cessation of hostilities
Speaker 3: in Gaza, and they continue to do so.
Speaker 1: Okay, Stuart Livingston Wallace, our head of Middle East and
Speaker 1: North Africa coverage at Bloomberg, thank you for more explanations
Speaker 1: like this from our team of twenty seven hundred journalists
Speaker 1: and analysts around the world. Search for quick take on
Speaker 1: the Bloomberg website or Bloomberg Business App. I'm Stephen Carol.
Speaker 1: This is here's why. I'll be back next week with more.
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening.