WEBVTT - Here's Why Diplomacy Still Matters in the Middle East

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. I'm Stephen Carol and

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<v Speaker 1>this is Here's Why, where we take one news story

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<v Speaker 1>and explain it in just a few minutes with our

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<v Speaker 1>experts here at Bloomberg. Since the Hamas attack on Israel

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<v Speaker 1>on the seventh of October and the war in Gaza

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<v Speaker 1>that's followed, tensions in the Middle East have been running high,

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<v Speaker 1>with little sign of improvement.

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<v Speaker 2>Israel is threatening further military action after striking Hasbella targets

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<v Speaker 2>in Lebanon in response to a rocket attack that killed

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<v Speaker 2>a dozen young people in the Israeli occupied Golan Heights.

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<v Speaker 1>Hamas says Israel killed its political leader Ismail Hania in

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<v Speaker 1>an airstrike on Tehran. The recent headlines have been dominated

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<v Speaker 1>by repeated attacks, assassinations, and fears of a wider regional war,

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<v Speaker 1>but in the background, there's also been talking negotiations over

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<v Speaker 1>a truce in Gaza and attempts to de escalate the

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<v Speaker 1>conflict between Israel, Iran and the Hamas and Hezbala groups,

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<v Speaker 1>which are backed by Tehran. So Here's why diplomacy still

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<v Speaker 1>matters in the Middle East. Our head of Middle East

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<v Speaker 1>and North Africa coverage, Stuart Livingston Wallas joins me. Now, Stewart,

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<v Speaker 1>there's been so much violence over the past few months,

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<v Speaker 1>what are diplomats doing about it?

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<v Speaker 3>So it's basically been an escalation, I would say, certainly

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<v Speaker 3>on the military fund, but particularly on the diplomatic front. Now,

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<v Speaker 3>it's also true to say that diplomacy has a thread

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<v Speaker 3>that's been running pretty consistently in the region, but particularly

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<v Speaker 3>since this all sort of started on this latest phase

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<v Speaker 3>start in October. But really we've had these two assassinations,

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<v Speaker 3>one in Beirut of the Hesbala leader and one of

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<v Speaker 3>her Nie, who was one of the Hamas or the

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<v Speaker 3>Hamasis political leader in Tehran, and I think the feeling

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<v Speaker 3>was that Iran would have to retaliate in some fashion,

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<v Speaker 3>and because it was so deeply embarrassing for someone of

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<v Speaker 3>her nearest in Tehran who had been invited to the

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<v Speaker 3>inauguration of the Iranian president basically gets assassinated under their noses,

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<v Speaker 3>So it's not a great look for them. And I

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<v Speaker 3>think the fear was that Iran would have to respond,

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<v Speaker 3>or felt it would have to respond far more aggressively

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<v Speaker 3>than it did in April. So April, the April incident

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<v Speaker 3>was the one where it sent something in the order

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<v Speaker 3>three three hundred and fifty drones that missiles directly at

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<v Speaker 3>Israel and now they were successfully intercepted, almost without exception.

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<v Speaker 3>But the real worry was that if they did something

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<v Speaker 3>even bigger than that, however well calibrated they thought it

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<v Speaker 3>would be, so you had an exponential increase in the

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<v Speaker 3>risk that it would hit a target or hit a

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<v Speaker 3>population that was perhaps not intended, but would in turn

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<v Speaker 3>force Israel to respond on an even grander scale. So

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<v Speaker 3>you've seen lots of leaders come in there. You have

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<v Speaker 3>the usual actors that you've seen in the last several

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<v Speaker 3>months of people like Anthony Blinkholm. But I think more

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<v Speaker 3>importantly you have Russia that has sent its former army

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<v Speaker 3>chief Gantataey Iran for discussions. You have the French president

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<v Speaker 3>again contacting Iran directly, and I think the messaging around

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<v Speaker 3>this is very clear, Please do not escalate. There is

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<v Speaker 3>nothing to be gained from escalation. And what's interesting is that,

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<v Speaker 3>at least so far, it seems.

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<v Speaker 1>To be working quite about progress towards a broader ceasefire

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<v Speaker 1>or truce in Gaza. What sort of progress has been

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<v Speaker 1>made in those discussions.

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<v Speaker 3>I think there were worries that when Hernia, that is

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<v Speaker 3>that her mass's political leader was assassinated, they gave that

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<v Speaker 3>job to basically the leader in Gaza, sinwall and Sinhwar

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<v Speaker 3>is sort of the hard liner on this, I mean,

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<v Speaker 3>the kind of all our hard lines, but he is

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<v Speaker 3>a particular hardliner. He's also perceived as one of the

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<v Speaker 3>masterminds of the October seventh attack on Israel from Gaza.

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<v Speaker 3>The reality is that he was probably making most of

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<v Speaker 3>the final decisions on the ceasefire negotiations in any case,

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<v Speaker 3>So I think our big takeaway from this is that, hey,

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<v Speaker 3>it clearly was her Mass trying to send a message

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<v Speaker 3>to the wider world of what their intention was, but

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<v Speaker 3>at the same time, it probably didn't change the ultimate

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<v Speaker 3>decision maker. I think the feeling within certainly diplomatic circles

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<v Speaker 3>trying to de escalate the situation is that you have

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<v Speaker 3>to have some sort of resolution in Gaza before you

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<v Speaker 3>can hope to make progress on any of the other

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<v Speaker 3>multiple conflicts now, particularly Lebanon. That is one that continues

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<v Speaker 3>to worry us, particularly at Yemen Gaza, and what's happened

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<v Speaker 3>in Gaza since October has really been the foundation for

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<v Speaker 3>a lot of the rhetorica around why these groups, and

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<v Speaker 3>they are for the most part Iranian fact are unleashing

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<v Speaker 3>these assaults on the wide region. And I remind everyone

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<v Speaker 3>it's not just Israel that they're attacking. There is this

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<v Speaker 3>ongoing series of attacks on commercial shipping moving through the

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<v Speaker 3>Red Sea, the Gulf of Hermad and so on, and

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<v Speaker 3>that really has had a global impact. Has progress been made,

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, we hear repeatedly from particularly the US administration

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<v Speaker 3>that they're getting cl There's no reason to disbelieve that.

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<v Speaker 3>But again, there is a fundamental block here, which is

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<v Speaker 3>that Israel has said that it must or its intention

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<v Speaker 3>is that it must destroy the her Mass leadership and

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<v Speaker 3>ensure that her Mask can never again have any sort

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<v Speaker 3>of sway in Gaza before it's prepared to accept some

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<v Speaker 3>sort of peace. Obviously, its counterparty with its negotiations is

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<v Speaker 3>her Mass that is very unlikely ever to agree to that.

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<v Speaker 3>So whether they can find some sort of path to

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<v Speaker 3>some sort of peace remains to be seen.

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<v Speaker 1>The top US Depromt Anthony Blinken, Secuty Estate, has made

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<v Speaker 1>many visits to the Middle East since last October. How

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<v Speaker 1>important is US influence in this region.

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<v Speaker 3>Extremely because the short answer, I mean it's waxed and

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<v Speaker 3>waned over the years. So it looked fairly clear a

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<v Speaker 3>couple of administrations and goes, probably starting with Obama but

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<v Speaker 3>then certainly into Trump, that the US appetite for sort

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<v Speaker 3>of mass deployments in the Middle East was very much diminishing. Now,

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<v Speaker 3>in part that was a function of the fact of

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<v Speaker 3>the rise of China, and there were obviously going to

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<v Speaker 3>be increasing pressure over the next several years in the

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<v Speaker 3>Western Pacific, and enormous though US military power is, it

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<v Speaker 3>couldn't necessarily deploy on the scale it needed to, both

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<v Speaker 3>in the Middle East and in the Pacific as well

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<v Speaker 3>as many other places. And so you saw this move

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<v Speaker 3>out of the region. I would say it's somewhat by

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<v Speaker 3>the US. You had the Abraham the Calls, which are

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<v Speaker 3>the sort of piece deals between some of the Arab

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<v Speaker 3>nations and Israel, and in some respects that was the

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<v Speaker 3>US trying to find some sort of balance of power

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<v Speaker 3>in a scenario where the US would remain present, perhaps

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<v Speaker 3>not on the scale that people have got used in

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<v Speaker 3>previous years. Now, clearly that's been derailed pretty dramatically by

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<v Speaker 3>what's been happening in Gaza and elsewhere in the region,

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<v Speaker 3>and so the US has had to effectively move back

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<v Speaker 3>into the region. It's sent in a carrier strike group,

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<v Speaker 3>it's sending in squadron of fighter jets, it's having to

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<v Speaker 3>send in additional destroyers. So in some respects it's had

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<v Speaker 3>to u turn as a function of the fact that

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<v Speaker 3>this threat is now spread right across the region.

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<v Speaker 1>Who are the other key actors in the diplomatic efforts, Well,

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<v Speaker 1>the other.

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<v Speaker 3>One we haven't mentioned to date, and who is a very,

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<v Speaker 3>very weighty actor in all of this is Katar, and

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<v Speaker 3>Katar is often the one that gets forgotten about. I mean,

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<v Speaker 3>just to set the scene for people, this is a

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<v Speaker 3>relatively small sliver of land that juts out into the

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<v Speaker 3>Persian Gulf. But by the end of this decade, they're

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<v Speaker 3>going to be controlling something like a quarter of the

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<v Speaker 3>world's liquefied natural gas supply. Now, with all this money

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<v Speaker 3>that has come in in the last I suppose twenty

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<v Speaker 3>five thirty years, they are building out on several fronts.

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<v Speaker 3>So the one I suspect everyone is aware of is

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<v Speaker 3>obviously hosting the World Cup, but they've obviously been buying companies.

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<v Speaker 3>They've been buying real estate or around the place. But

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<v Speaker 3>the other key thing that they're doing is becoming effectively

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<v Speaker 3>one of the major negotiators and mediators in the region.

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<v Speaker 3>So they've been involved in all sorts of things, everything

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<v Speaker 3>from hosting the Taliban to hosting her Mass and that

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<v Speaker 3>obviously was done in coordination with the US. They host

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<v Speaker 3>a gigantic US base, hosts a very substantial Turkish space,

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<v Speaker 3>and they're really kind of the mediators between lots and

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<v Speaker 3>lots of warring parties all over the world. Now they're

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<v Speaker 3>key in this one because they were, or they have

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<v Speaker 3>been and continue to be one of the really strong

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<v Speaker 3>players in these ceasfile negotiations. They were certainly one of

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<v Speaker 3>the mediators involved in the rather short lived seas far

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<v Speaker 3>that we saw several months ago that led to the

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<v Speaker 3>release of some hostage and a temporary cessation of hostilities

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<v Speaker 3>in Gaza, and they continue to do so.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay, Stuart Livingston Wallace, our head of Middle East and

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<v Speaker 1>North Africa coverage at Bloomberg, thank you for more explanations

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<v Speaker 1>like this from our team of twenty seven hundred journalists

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<v Speaker 1>and analysts around the world. Search for quick take on

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<v Speaker 1>the Bloomberg website or Bloomberg Business App. I'm Stephen Carol.

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<v Speaker 1>This is here's why. I'll be back next week with more.

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<v Speaker 1>Thanks for listening.