1 00:00:00,160 --> 00:00:03,360 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Wall Street Week. What's the state of 2 00:00:03,400 --> 00:00:06,120 Speaker 1: corporate government? So the deficit is a real issue. The 3 00:00:06,200 --> 00:00:09,240 Speaker 1: US economy continues to send mixed signals to the financial 4 00:00:09,320 --> 00:00:12,440 Speaker 1: stories that cheap our world fed action to con concerns 5 00:00:12,520 --> 00:00:15,720 Speaker 1: over dollar liquidity and encouraging China data the five hundred 6 00:00:15,760 --> 00:00:18,079 Speaker 1: wealthiest people in the world. Through the eyes of the 7 00:00:18,120 --> 00:00:22,160 Speaker 1: most influential voices Larry Summers, the former Treasury Secretary, Star 8 00:00:22,040 --> 00:00:25,720 Speaker 1: Wars CEO Kevin Johnson sec Chairman j Clayton. Bloomberg wool 9 00:00:25,760 --> 00:00:30,000 Speaker 1: Street Week with David Weston from Bloomberg Radio. Governments fight 10 00:00:30,040 --> 00:00:34,919 Speaker 1: the coronavirus, markets react, sometimes violently. This is Bloomberg Wall 11 00:00:34,960 --> 00:00:38,919 Speaker 1: Street Week. I'm David Weston. Welcome back. Home delivery has 12 00:00:38,920 --> 00:00:41,640 Speaker 1: gone from something of a luxury to a true necessity. 13 00:00:42,040 --> 00:00:44,360 Speaker 1: An important part of the backbone of that home delivery 14 00:00:44,400 --> 00:00:48,320 Speaker 1: system is UPS. We talked with chairman and CEO of UPS, 15 00:00:48,440 --> 00:00:51,720 Speaker 1: David Abney about how this crisis has changed his business 16 00:00:52,040 --> 00:00:56,400 Speaker 1: and the entire U S economy and industrywide. So from 17 00:00:56,400 --> 00:01:01,040 Speaker 1: a whole microeconomic standpoint is UH obviously a lot more 18 00:01:01,080 --> 00:01:06,800 Speaker 1: healthcare PPE and UH and critical submits like that, and 19 00:01:06,959 --> 00:01:10,160 Speaker 1: UH and I think you're saying that all across the industry, 20 00:01:10,319 --> 00:01:15,720 Speaker 1: and with businesses being closed and with people sheltering in place, 21 00:01:16,319 --> 00:01:21,320 Speaker 1: you see more e commerce or more residential deliveries across 22 00:01:21,400 --> 00:01:25,319 Speaker 1: the industry too, So that would be the two biggest things. 23 00:01:25,400 --> 00:01:29,880 Speaker 1: And the good thing about our flexible global logistics network 24 00:01:30,040 --> 00:01:33,720 Speaker 1: is it allows us to flex to meet the needs 25 00:01:33,760 --> 00:01:37,600 Speaker 1: of our governments or meet the needs of our of 26 00:01:37,680 --> 00:01:41,600 Speaker 1: our customers. So it's interesting times, that's for sure. David. Yeah, 27 00:01:41,680 --> 00:01:43,560 Speaker 1: that's that's for sure for all of David. Let me 28 00:01:43,560 --> 00:01:45,920 Speaker 1: pick up on what you just talked about that flexible logistics, 29 00:01:45,920 --> 00:01:49,040 Speaker 1: because you really have pushed hard on automation and bringing 30 00:01:49,280 --> 00:01:52,240 Speaker 1: the computer the digital age into your delivery system. Is 31 00:01:52,280 --> 00:01:54,520 Speaker 1: this experience going to expedite that? Is that going to 32 00:01:54,640 --> 00:01:57,080 Speaker 1: drive even farther and faster than you were doing already? 33 00:01:57,240 --> 00:02:00,320 Speaker 1: For one, it makes us very thankful that we have 34 00:02:00,320 --> 00:02:06,040 Speaker 1: have invested in the automation and invested in our transformation initiatives, 35 00:02:06,600 --> 00:02:09,959 Speaker 1: which we're all focused about speed and focused about the 36 00:02:09,960 --> 00:02:15,000 Speaker 1: agility and UH and of course with the situations we're 37 00:02:15,000 --> 00:02:19,320 Speaker 1: facing now, that just stresses the importance. But even when 38 00:02:19,360 --> 00:02:21,959 Speaker 1: this crisis is over, we're just living in a year 39 00:02:22,000 --> 00:02:26,000 Speaker 1: of at a time of great change, so we think 40 00:02:26,040 --> 00:02:28,440 Speaker 1: we will continue to build upon that. So it's just 41 00:02:29,160 --> 00:02:31,600 Speaker 1: more important now than ever. And I don't think that 42 00:02:31,880 --> 00:02:35,400 Speaker 1: say that diminishing once we get through this crisis. On 43 00:02:35,520 --> 00:02:37,800 Speaker 1: your business, give us a sense of what's going on 44 00:02:37,840 --> 00:02:40,480 Speaker 1: with business to business as opposed to business consumer. I'm 45 00:02:40,480 --> 00:02:44,200 Speaker 1: assuming business of business is off somewhat. Business consumer probably 46 00:02:44,280 --> 00:02:47,240 Speaker 1: is up somewhat. Goodness does that's our experience here up 47 00:02:47,240 --> 00:02:50,480 Speaker 1: in Westchester. But does that affect your margint margins? Because 48 00:02:50,480 --> 00:02:52,800 Speaker 1: I believe you have a higher margin, particularly the small 49 00:02:52,840 --> 00:02:55,200 Speaker 1: and medium sized companies and the B two B as 50 00:02:55,200 --> 00:02:58,400 Speaker 1: opposed to B to C and David, that is because 51 00:02:58,520 --> 00:03:01,400 Speaker 1: we have our earnings code come up next week. I 52 00:03:01,480 --> 00:03:05,720 Speaker 1: would be talking more in detail along those lines than 53 00:03:06,280 --> 00:03:08,360 Speaker 1: what I can tell you now though, is from a 54 00:03:08,440 --> 00:03:13,919 Speaker 1: macroeconomic or industry's perspective, and that is that YEA of closures, 55 00:03:13,960 --> 00:03:17,880 Speaker 1: there's less B two B and what we'll stay at home, 56 00:03:17,960 --> 00:03:21,000 Speaker 1: there's there's more B two S. But I'll have more 57 00:03:21,040 --> 00:03:23,480 Speaker 1: information to share about that when I get to the 58 00:03:23,560 --> 00:03:25,680 Speaker 1: artist call yeah, fair enough. I don't want to get 59 00:03:25,680 --> 00:03:28,000 Speaker 1: your in trouble with the SEC. David whatever, we do here. 60 00:03:28,280 --> 00:03:32,840 Speaker 1: The final question, particularly, did your experience thus far? Thus far? 61 00:03:32,919 --> 00:03:34,920 Speaker 1: Your your experience in the UPS, does it tell you 62 00:03:34,960 --> 00:03:37,960 Speaker 1: anything that would really be helpful to us about restarting 63 00:03:37,960 --> 00:03:40,520 Speaker 1: the economy, what you've seen shutdown, what you think might 64 00:03:40,520 --> 00:03:43,400 Speaker 1: come back. I do think we can add a lot 65 00:03:43,480 --> 00:03:47,480 Speaker 1: to that story. And I'm proud to be a part 66 00:03:47,520 --> 00:03:50,920 Speaker 1: of the Great American Economic Revival Group, one of them 67 00:03:51,040 --> 00:03:54,840 Speaker 1: that the President is leading. And the thing that we 68 00:03:54,920 --> 00:03:59,040 Speaker 1: have to offer is that since we have been declared 69 00:03:59,080 --> 00:04:03,760 Speaker 1: a critical for structure business, we've been operating through the 70 00:04:03,880 --> 00:04:09,200 Speaker 1: heroic efforts of our UPS drivers and loaders and pilots 71 00:04:09,200 --> 00:04:14,120 Speaker 1: and mechanics throughout this crisis, and so we have learned 72 00:04:14,160 --> 00:04:17,520 Speaker 1: a lot. And one of the things that I will 73 00:04:17,560 --> 00:04:21,680 Speaker 1: be sharing with other businesses that have had to close 74 00:04:21,760 --> 00:04:25,120 Speaker 1: down is what we have learned, what we see works 75 00:04:25,880 --> 00:04:29,040 Speaker 1: and uh and what we would recommend they do and 76 00:04:29,760 --> 00:04:32,960 Speaker 1: not do. So I do believe that we would add 77 00:04:33,000 --> 00:04:35,600 Speaker 1: a lot of value to that discussion. Even talk about 78 00:04:35,600 --> 00:04:37,640 Speaker 1: those employees, what are you doing for them is to 79 00:04:37,720 --> 00:04:40,160 Speaker 1: try to keep them as safe as possible? What extraordinary 80 00:04:40,360 --> 00:04:43,040 Speaker 1: links are you going to? Okay, certainly, well, in fact, 81 00:04:43,080 --> 00:04:46,640 Speaker 1: my favorite subject is talking about our employees, especially right now, 82 00:04:46,680 --> 00:04:51,200 Speaker 1: there's just an amazing group of people that realized that 83 00:04:51,400 --> 00:04:54,920 Speaker 1: we are a critical business and they have stepped up 84 00:04:54,960 --> 00:04:57,599 Speaker 1: to the plate like I haven't seen. In fact, David, 85 00:04:57,640 --> 00:05:01,640 Speaker 1: we have record service levels now and I can go 86 00:05:01,720 --> 00:05:04,680 Speaker 1: back forty six years. So I can't speak for the 87 00:05:04,720 --> 00:05:07,479 Speaker 1: company history, but I can speak for a good portion 88 00:05:07,560 --> 00:05:10,600 Speaker 1: of it. And UH. But the first thing is all 89 00:05:10,640 --> 00:05:12,680 Speaker 1: about the safety. We have to if we want to 90 00:05:12,680 --> 00:05:16,000 Speaker 1: be a critical business, and if we believe we've got 91 00:05:16,040 --> 00:05:20,640 Speaker 1: to move healthcare supplies and stuff around the world, then 92 00:05:20,680 --> 00:05:24,200 Speaker 1: we have to take care of our people and and 93 00:05:24,960 --> 00:05:29,440 Speaker 1: things like UH. And these are just really important things. 94 00:05:29,480 --> 00:05:33,400 Speaker 1: Emergency paid lead that was outside of our union contracts 95 00:05:33,440 --> 00:05:36,520 Speaker 1: that we agreed to let our people know you don't 96 00:05:36,520 --> 00:05:38,480 Speaker 1: need to come to work, say that if you are 97 00:05:39,120 --> 00:05:42,240 Speaker 1: feeling any problems, we can give you the paid leave, 98 00:05:42,920 --> 00:05:47,320 Speaker 1: and UH, enhanced cleaning of our buildings and our package 99 00:05:47,360 --> 00:05:51,719 Speaker 1: cars and everything that people will touch, of course, following 100 00:05:51,800 --> 00:05:57,920 Speaker 1: CDC guidelines and sanitizing supplies and masks. But one that 101 00:05:58,160 --> 00:06:00,479 Speaker 1: was really important you may have noticed state if we 102 00:06:00,600 --> 00:06:04,360 Speaker 1: delivered to your house, is no longer drivers having to 103 00:06:04,440 --> 00:06:09,159 Speaker 1: a car signatures and so that means this UH diet board, 104 00:06:09,279 --> 00:06:12,320 Speaker 1: this computer is not being passed from hand to hand, 105 00:06:12,839 --> 00:06:16,680 Speaker 1: and we have learned how to make UH non contact 106 00:06:16,720 --> 00:06:20,559 Speaker 1: deliveries and UH and those are things that have made 107 00:06:20,560 --> 00:06:25,159 Speaker 1: the job much much slaper and is allowing us to 108 00:06:25,240 --> 00:06:28,640 Speaker 1: continue to function. But is due to the amazing efforts 109 00:06:28,640 --> 00:06:32,880 Speaker 1: of our people. That was David Adney, CEO of UPS 110 00:06:32,880 --> 00:06:37,640 Speaker 1: Coming Up. Congress moved forward on another four billion dollar 111 00:06:37,720 --> 00:06:41,000 Speaker 1: spending package to help the economy. But is it enough? 112 00:06:41,560 --> 00:06:44,760 Speaker 1: We asked the Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi. That's 113 00:06:44,839 --> 00:06:55,200 Speaker 1: next on Wall Street Week on Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg 114 00:06:55,240 --> 00:06:59,840 Speaker 1: Wall Street Week with David Weston from Bloomberg Radio. Congress 115 00:06:59,839 --> 00:07:02,840 Speaker 1: this week took what was already an unprecedented level of 116 00:07:02,839 --> 00:07:05,200 Speaker 1: support for the U. S economy and upt it by 117 00:07:05,200 --> 00:07:08,839 Speaker 1: another five d billion dollars. We asked Speaker of the 118 00:07:08,839 --> 00:07:11,720 Speaker 1: House Nancy Pelosi, whether there was more on the way, 119 00:07:11,760 --> 00:07:14,720 Speaker 1: despite the fact that the Majority Leader, Mitch McConnell says 120 00:07:14,760 --> 00:07:18,600 Speaker 1: they've already done enough. Why I was paced in three phases, 121 00:07:18,640 --> 00:07:21,000 Speaker 1: first emergency and that's what we did in the first 122 00:07:21,040 --> 00:07:24,240 Speaker 1: few bills that we passed in March, and of strong 123 00:07:24,360 --> 00:07:29,000 Speaker 1: bipartisan way. We started with testing, testing, testing, on March five. 124 00:07:29,040 --> 00:07:30,920 Speaker 1: Here we are a month and a half later and 125 00:07:30,920 --> 00:07:34,680 Speaker 1: the administration has still not fully implemented it. After this bill, 126 00:07:34,720 --> 00:07:39,040 Speaker 1: hopefully they will uh so. So that was part of recovery. 127 00:07:39,320 --> 00:07:41,880 Speaker 1: And then we went into mitigation to mitigate for the 128 00:07:41,960 --> 00:07:45,440 Speaker 1: damage to the economy with these initiatives, to protect our 129 00:07:45,480 --> 00:07:49,840 Speaker 1: small businesses, to provide more assistance in terms of health 130 00:07:49,840 --> 00:07:52,200 Speaker 1: care and the rest. And now we have to go 131 00:07:52,320 --> 00:07:56,080 Speaker 1: further into mitigation, unfortunately to help state and local. Now 132 00:07:56,120 --> 00:07:59,560 Speaker 1: state and local means this. It means the healthcare worker, 133 00:08:00,080 --> 00:08:04,520 Speaker 1: police and fire, the first responders, UH, the emergency services people, 134 00:08:04,680 --> 00:08:09,320 Speaker 1: the the teachers in our schools, the transportation workers who 135 00:08:09,360 --> 00:08:14,800 Speaker 1: get essential workers to work. Again, it's about the people. 136 00:08:15,200 --> 00:08:18,400 Speaker 1: And these people are risking their lives to help save 137 00:08:18,520 --> 00:08:21,800 Speaker 1: other lives and now they're losing their jobs. So it's 138 00:08:21,920 --> 00:08:24,440 Speaker 1: very essential that for our Heroes, I call it our 139 00:08:24,480 --> 00:08:28,640 Speaker 1: Heroes Act, that we have this assistance to state, county, 140 00:08:28,680 --> 00:08:32,080 Speaker 1: local government and to do so in a very significant 141 00:08:32,120 --> 00:08:36,400 Speaker 1: way to recognize the lost revenue that they have from 142 00:08:36,960 --> 00:08:41,120 Speaker 1: of a stream of revenue because of the economy. And secondly, 143 00:08:41,440 --> 00:08:45,559 Speaker 1: the outlays that they make in order to address the coronavirus. 144 00:08:46,080 --> 00:08:49,280 Speaker 1: Take us through your strategy in agreeing to this approach, 145 00:08:49,679 --> 00:08:52,679 Speaker 1: leaving out state and local. You did get, as you said, hospitals, 146 00:08:52,720 --> 00:08:54,599 Speaker 1: You got testing in and protection for some of the 147 00:08:54,640 --> 00:08:57,800 Speaker 1: smallest companies. But did you run the risk perhaps if 148 00:08:57,840 --> 00:09:00,760 Speaker 1: not getting the state and local assistant certain me anytime soon, 149 00:09:00,760 --> 00:09:03,200 Speaker 1: because now we have Mitch McConnell, the Senate majority leader, 150 00:09:03,280 --> 00:09:05,160 Speaker 1: saying he thinks he's maybe, he's sort of done, he's 151 00:09:05,160 --> 00:09:08,280 Speaker 1: cautious going forward. Even Stephen Nutrition, your partner in negotiating 152 00:09:08,280 --> 00:09:09,720 Speaker 1: a lot of this, is saying he's not sure. We 153 00:09:09,760 --> 00:09:11,800 Speaker 1: need a lot more. Are you concerned we won't be 154 00:09:11,800 --> 00:09:14,680 Speaker 1: able to get the state and local anytime soon? Well, 155 00:09:14,760 --> 00:09:16,360 Speaker 1: first of all, let me remind you this is the 156 00:09:16,400 --> 00:09:19,000 Speaker 1: same Mitch McConnell who said on the floor of the 157 00:09:19,120 --> 00:09:21,600 Speaker 1: Senate there's no way we're going to do anything but 158 00:09:21,720 --> 00:09:24,480 Speaker 1: the two fifty and now we're up to four eighty 159 00:09:24,640 --> 00:09:27,640 Speaker 1: that the Democrats were able to add for smaller businesses 160 00:09:27,920 --> 00:09:30,440 Speaker 1: and for the health and well being of the American people. 161 00:09:30,880 --> 00:09:34,520 Speaker 1: So that's an interesting statement, but it isn't the fact 162 00:09:34,640 --> 00:09:37,880 Speaker 1: this is an interim bill. We didn't expect to have 163 00:09:37,920 --> 00:09:41,200 Speaker 1: an introim bill except after the Secretary's call. So we 164 00:09:41,240 --> 00:09:43,440 Speaker 1: went from CARES one and then we're going to go 165 00:09:43,480 --> 00:09:46,640 Speaker 1: into CARES too, and CARES too would have been about 166 00:09:46,960 --> 00:09:49,880 Speaker 1: state and local. So we got everything we asked for 167 00:09:50,000 --> 00:09:53,640 Speaker 1: on the floor of the Senate and more. Uh. Two 168 00:09:53,640 --> 00:09:56,679 Speaker 1: weeks ago. They should have agreed then instead of holding 169 00:09:56,679 --> 00:09:59,400 Speaker 1: it up to what they agreed to. But in terms 170 00:09:59,400 --> 00:10:01,480 Speaker 1: of state and the for the President himself has even 171 00:10:01,559 --> 00:10:05,080 Speaker 1: said uh, and he tweeted out that he's ready to 172 00:10:05,120 --> 00:10:07,320 Speaker 1: do state and local that he knows there has to 173 00:10:07,360 --> 00:10:10,320 Speaker 1: be another bill and there are other measures that are 174 00:10:10,400 --> 00:10:14,040 Speaker 1: needed to be addressed in that legislation as well. It's 175 00:10:14,040 --> 00:10:17,000 Speaker 1: going to be a major package. It's going to address 176 00:10:17,240 --> 00:10:21,400 Speaker 1: again uh the uh, the needs of the states and 177 00:10:21,440 --> 00:10:24,640 Speaker 1: localities because that's where much of the health care delivery is, 178 00:10:24,960 --> 00:10:28,800 Speaker 1: in public hospitals and the rest, as well as testing, 179 00:10:28,880 --> 00:10:32,319 Speaker 1: and that is in our bill that will be dispursed 180 00:10:32,320 --> 00:10:34,840 Speaker 1: in some of it too, many of the states out 181 00:10:34,840 --> 00:10:38,280 Speaker 1: there some of the money for testing. And also the 182 00:10:38,320 --> 00:10:42,400 Speaker 1: lost revenue. This is a very important point. The lost 183 00:10:42,440 --> 00:10:46,520 Speaker 1: revenue is something that we really we will have addressed 184 00:10:46,960 --> 00:10:51,160 Speaker 1: in this next care package to recognize that piece of 185 00:10:51,200 --> 00:10:53,920 Speaker 1: it and that it has to be compensated for, and 186 00:10:54,040 --> 00:10:57,720 Speaker 1: funds used given to the states can be used for 187 00:10:57,920 --> 00:11:02,440 Speaker 1: that because it is all own virus related and everything 188 00:11:02,480 --> 00:11:06,280 Speaker 1: we do is about coronavirus related. So it is with 189 00:11:06,400 --> 00:11:09,360 Speaker 1: great optimism that we go forward with this. We've we're 190 00:11:09,480 --> 00:11:12,880 Speaker 1: well down the path to do it. It was never 191 00:11:12,960 --> 00:11:15,240 Speaker 1: intended to be an interim bill because we didn't know 192 00:11:15,280 --> 00:11:17,920 Speaker 1: an interim bill would exist, But we use the interom 193 00:11:17,960 --> 00:11:21,400 Speaker 1: bill to make the argument that this needed to be 194 00:11:21,440 --> 00:11:24,800 Speaker 1: done as soon as possible, and it will. This needs 195 00:11:24,800 --> 00:11:28,480 Speaker 1: to go for coronavirus and specifically for need. How do 196 00:11:28,559 --> 00:11:32,160 Speaker 1: we make sure that these funds massive funds are not 197 00:11:32,280 --> 00:11:35,280 Speaker 1: distributed with any political reason involved, because with the p 198 00:11:35,360 --> 00:11:38,400 Speaker 1: p P there was some suggestion more funds were going 199 00:11:38,400 --> 00:11:40,160 Speaker 1: to some of the states that tend to vote Republicans. 200 00:11:40,200 --> 00:11:42,520 Speaker 1: Are you confident this is going where it needs to 201 00:11:42,520 --> 00:11:46,000 Speaker 1: go rather than where it might be politically exeggent to go, 202 00:11:47,320 --> 00:11:51,840 Speaker 1: of course not, But anyway, I think the public display 203 00:11:52,080 --> 00:11:56,199 Speaker 1: of it, as Abraham Lincoln said, public sentiment is everything. 204 00:11:56,240 --> 00:12:00,160 Speaker 1: With it, you can accomplish almost everything without it, practically nothing. 205 00:12:00,480 --> 00:12:03,320 Speaker 1: But I might add to that that I do think 206 00:12:03,360 --> 00:12:07,040 Speaker 1: that it's not too soon and should have been even earlier. 207 00:12:07,360 --> 00:12:09,960 Speaker 1: We have to get ready for what comes next. How 208 00:12:10,000 --> 00:12:12,360 Speaker 1: do we open up government? How do we do so 209 00:12:12,720 --> 00:12:16,320 Speaker 1: in a way that does not contribute to a return 210 00:12:16,559 --> 00:12:20,000 Speaker 1: of the virus? And if we have God willing of 211 00:12:20,080 --> 00:12:24,240 Speaker 1: vaccine soon, how is that distributed? Not in a political way, 212 00:12:24,960 --> 00:12:26,760 Speaker 1: but in a way that meets the needs of the 213 00:12:26,800 --> 00:12:31,400 Speaker 1: American people. That would be sinful, but it is a challenge, 214 00:12:31,520 --> 00:12:35,160 Speaker 1: and proper preparation prevents poor performance. That's what the boy 215 00:12:35,240 --> 00:12:37,800 Speaker 1: scouts say. I wish the President would act like a 216 00:12:37,840 --> 00:12:41,640 Speaker 1: boy scout in that regard and be thinking ahead, not 217 00:12:41,880 --> 00:12:44,960 Speaker 1: just And I'm prepared not to look back to some 218 00:12:45,080 --> 00:12:48,560 Speaker 1: of his statements, but he cannot continue to misrepresent the 219 00:12:48,600 --> 00:12:52,600 Speaker 1: facts to the American people and expect us to to 220 00:12:52,720 --> 00:12:56,360 Speaker 1: accept the deaths that go with that. Okay, made a 221 00:12:56,440 --> 00:12:59,160 Speaker 1: final question. Looking forward the way you say we need 222 00:12:59,200 --> 00:13:01,680 Speaker 1: to be doing seems exactly right. What do you look 223 00:13:01,679 --> 00:13:03,720 Speaker 1: forward to in terms of an election in November? Do 224 00:13:03,720 --> 00:13:05,520 Speaker 1: you have any sense of what that may look at like? 225 00:13:05,760 --> 00:13:07,840 Speaker 1: As you say, to make sure that people are safe, 226 00:13:08,440 --> 00:13:10,520 Speaker 1: but they do get to express their views at the polls. 227 00:13:11,320 --> 00:13:13,439 Speaker 1: We want to be able to have people vote by mail. 228 00:13:13,960 --> 00:13:17,000 Speaker 1: This at this especially at a time of concern about 229 00:13:17,040 --> 00:13:20,600 Speaker 1: health issues, it's better for them to vote by mail, 230 00:13:20,880 --> 00:13:23,000 Speaker 1: to get their ballots sent to them at home, to 231 00:13:23,040 --> 00:13:25,880 Speaker 1: have same day registration for those who do want to 232 00:13:25,920 --> 00:13:29,200 Speaker 1: go to the polls, but to have the demand on 233 00:13:29,280 --> 00:13:32,720 Speaker 1: poll watchers, and there has been much much less. Uh, 234 00:13:32,760 --> 00:13:35,760 Speaker 1: So we will be seeking additional funds. We had four 235 00:13:35,840 --> 00:13:39,240 Speaker 1: hundred million dollars in the first care is that we 236 00:13:39,280 --> 00:13:42,199 Speaker 1: need much more than that now so that we can 237 00:13:42,320 --> 00:13:46,080 Speaker 1: guarantee the integrity of our elections. So we're talking about 238 00:13:46,080 --> 00:13:49,959 Speaker 1: the lives of the American people, the livelihood of our content, 239 00:13:50,120 --> 00:13:53,800 Speaker 1: their livelihood and the strength of our economy, and uh 240 00:13:54,080 --> 00:13:57,920 Speaker 1: the integrity of our elections, the life of our democracy. 241 00:13:58,320 --> 00:14:01,640 Speaker 1: This is very very important now, more than ever more 242 00:14:01,679 --> 00:14:04,200 Speaker 1: important to be able to vote by mail. That was 243 00:14:04,240 --> 00:14:07,600 Speaker 1: Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi. Coming up on Wall 244 00:14:07,600 --> 00:14:11,720 Speaker 1: Street Week, City Global Chief Economist Katherine Mann on whether 245 00:14:11,800 --> 00:14:15,600 Speaker 1: equities are counting too much on government help. That's next 246 00:14:15,640 --> 00:14:24,400 Speaker 1: on Wall Street Week on Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg Wall 247 00:14:24,480 --> 00:14:29,160 Speaker 1: Street Week with David Weston from Bloomberg Radio. Economic numbers 248 00:14:29,200 --> 00:14:32,320 Speaker 1: continue to deteriorate and yet it doesn't look like we're 249 00:14:32,320 --> 00:14:35,760 Speaker 1: at the bottom yet. Despite all that, the SMP fire 250 00:14:35,880 --> 00:14:38,520 Speaker 1: is down only about four percent off of its peak, 251 00:14:39,000 --> 00:14:42,400 Speaker 1: raising the question whether the equity markets are really underestimating 252 00:14:42,400 --> 00:14:46,360 Speaker 1: the downside risk or maybe are fully estimating what governments 253 00:14:46,400 --> 00:14:49,160 Speaker 1: are willing to do to save the economy. That's something 254 00:14:49,200 --> 00:14:53,160 Speaker 1: we ask Katherine Mann, chief Global economist for City about. 255 00:14:53,400 --> 00:14:56,240 Speaker 1: We can definitely see that, Uh, if we go back 256 00:14:56,280 --> 00:14:58,960 Speaker 1: a little bit of a couple of months or montsource, 257 00:14:59,840 --> 00:15:03,320 Speaker 1: the markets were in free fall. The markets were absolutely 258 00:15:03,320 --> 00:15:08,880 Speaker 1: in free fall until the SAID came in with its program, 259 00:15:09,000 --> 00:15:11,400 Speaker 1: not the right cuts that didn't help, but with the 260 00:15:11,600 --> 00:15:15,640 Speaker 1: with the first round of alphabets of backing, and then 261 00:15:15,840 --> 00:15:20,440 Speaker 1: the markets still were, you know, on the bottom until 262 00:15:20,520 --> 00:15:24,480 Speaker 1: the fiscal authorities came in with their huge program. So 263 00:15:24,520 --> 00:15:28,800 Speaker 1: it's no question that the equity markets are responding to 264 00:15:28,880 --> 00:15:34,080 Speaker 1: the combination the double barreled SAID and monetary policy. On 265 00:15:34,640 --> 00:15:37,800 Speaker 1: fiscal policy. On the other hand, you know, it's also 266 00:15:37,840 --> 00:15:40,320 Speaker 1: the case that when we look at where they bounced 267 00:15:40,360 --> 00:15:43,280 Speaker 1: back to, we sort of say, okay, they bounced back 268 00:15:43,320 --> 00:15:46,040 Speaker 1: to where they were in the middle of maybe not 269 00:15:46,120 --> 00:15:50,960 Speaker 1: to the highs of the beginning of middle En. Where 270 00:15:51,000 --> 00:15:54,440 Speaker 1: do we think the economy is gonna be in twelve months? 271 00:15:54,480 --> 00:15:58,480 Speaker 1: Are they looking forward to that? Because if they're looking 272 00:15:58,520 --> 00:16:01,200 Speaker 1: forward to that, they shouldn't be where they are now. 273 00:16:01,640 --> 00:16:04,880 Speaker 1: And Catherine, one very interesting point that you've made is 274 00:16:04,920 --> 00:16:06,920 Speaker 1: this everybody talks about is it a V, is it 275 00:16:06,960 --> 00:16:09,000 Speaker 1: a W, as an L as you things like that. 276 00:16:09,360 --> 00:16:12,400 Speaker 1: Your point, I believe is it depends on where you 277 00:16:12,480 --> 00:16:14,840 Speaker 1: look and specifically at what sector. It may be a 278 00:16:14,840 --> 00:16:19,720 Speaker 1: different letter for different sectors. Yeah, so a couple of 279 00:16:19,800 --> 00:16:23,040 Speaker 1: things first, Yet different letters for different sectors. Uh. And 280 00:16:23,080 --> 00:16:27,520 Speaker 1: it's also different letters depending on what your time horizon is. 281 00:16:27,880 --> 00:16:30,400 Speaker 1: So let's talk about the sectors first. Something like a 282 00:16:30,480 --> 00:16:34,320 Speaker 1: manufacturing much more like a V shaped because you know, 283 00:16:34,360 --> 00:16:37,200 Speaker 1: when the factory is shut down, your run down the inventories. 284 00:16:37,240 --> 00:16:38,800 Speaker 1: When you have to ramp up, you have to ramp 285 00:16:38,880 --> 00:16:42,240 Speaker 1: up production to make back up your inventories. Maybe not 286 00:16:42,280 --> 00:16:45,320 Speaker 1: as much. We are tempering the VS a little bit 287 00:16:45,400 --> 00:16:51,400 Speaker 1: because the supply chain continuity matters. Your factory may be open, 288 00:16:51,760 --> 00:16:55,440 Speaker 1: but the next factory on the supply chain may be closed. 289 00:16:55,800 --> 00:16:58,280 Speaker 1: So you know you've got some tempering of the V 290 00:16:58,400 --> 00:17:03,000 Speaker 1: shape and manufacturing through Uh, that relationship uh, and the 291 00:17:03,040 --> 00:17:04,919 Speaker 1: fact that the whole world is not opening up at 292 00:17:04,960 --> 00:17:07,520 Speaker 1: the same time because the virus didn't arrive at the 293 00:17:07,560 --> 00:17:10,960 Speaker 1: same time. The other set of sector sectors, though, for example, 294 00:17:11,160 --> 00:17:14,439 Speaker 1: are ones where consumer choice matters. We call it getting 295 00:17:14,440 --> 00:17:19,200 Speaker 1: back to play, meaning people are going out to entertainment, restaurants, 296 00:17:19,200 --> 00:17:23,400 Speaker 1: sporting events, travel, tourism. Of course, people in those sectors 297 00:17:23,440 --> 00:17:26,520 Speaker 1: who are compare the workers in those sectors. There's the 298 00:17:26,520 --> 00:17:30,920 Speaker 1: employed people, but it matters whether or not the there 299 00:17:31,119 --> 00:17:36,119 Speaker 1: is a consumer demand for those unstructured activities, things that 300 00:17:36,160 --> 00:17:38,440 Speaker 1: you do by choice. Nobody's forcing you to go take 301 00:17:38,440 --> 00:17:43,119 Speaker 1: a cruise. Uh. And so until that really gets back uh, 302 00:17:43,320 --> 00:17:47,479 Speaker 1: those sectors, the workers associated with those sectors, and therefore 303 00:17:47,520 --> 00:17:50,679 Speaker 1: the economy as a whole is going to have a drag. 304 00:17:50,800 --> 00:17:53,800 Speaker 1: It's going to be L shaped for them. And so 305 00:17:54,080 --> 00:17:57,160 Speaker 1: you get these very different shapes depending on the sector. 306 00:17:57,560 --> 00:18:01,359 Speaker 1: You add it all up to an economy, and you know, 307 00:18:01,400 --> 00:18:02,800 Speaker 1: some of them are a little bit more V shaped 308 00:18:02,800 --> 00:18:04,840 Speaker 1: because there's a little bit more manufacturing, a little more 309 00:18:04,920 --> 00:18:08,199 Speaker 1: tech maybe uh. And then other economies that might be 310 00:18:08,240 --> 00:18:10,840 Speaker 1: a South Korea or Taiwan, And then there are other 311 00:18:10,880 --> 00:18:14,480 Speaker 1: economies that are extremely a tourism dependent. Those are facing 312 00:18:14,480 --> 00:18:18,280 Speaker 1: elves uh something like a Thailand, Singapore, UK. These are 313 00:18:18,359 --> 00:18:23,480 Speaker 1: these are economies very dependent on consumer choice sectors. The 314 00:18:23,640 --> 00:18:27,240 Speaker 1: other perspective though, that I think is important to remember 315 00:18:27,480 --> 00:18:31,000 Speaker 1: is depending on what is your time horizon as an investor. 316 00:18:31,600 --> 00:18:33,480 Speaker 1: If you are a very kind of a near term, 317 00:18:33,560 --> 00:18:37,080 Speaker 1: short term time horizon, you're going to see these these 318 00:18:37,160 --> 00:18:44,399 Speaker 1: just amazingly collapsing economies on a quarterly quarter to quarter basis, 319 00:18:44,920 --> 00:18:48,639 Speaker 1: so into the second quarter for advanced economies for most 320 00:18:48,680 --> 00:18:53,040 Speaker 1: of the emerging world except for Asia, which is being 321 00:18:53,119 --> 00:18:59,199 Speaker 1: changed by China, tremendous deterioration, but then huge rebounds in 322 00:18:59,320 --> 00:19:02,520 Speaker 1: Q three, different for different parts of the world, so 323 00:19:02,600 --> 00:19:05,480 Speaker 1: you can there's a lot of arbitrage in there from 324 00:19:05,560 --> 00:19:09,600 Speaker 1: quarter to quarter. On the other hand, if you're kind 325 00:19:09,600 --> 00:19:12,520 Speaker 1: of a long term investor. If you're a long term investor, 326 00:19:13,600 --> 00:19:17,920 Speaker 1: you asked the question, when does the economy get back 327 00:19:18,000 --> 00:19:23,560 Speaker 1: to the peak of economic activity as measured by say January? 328 00:19:23,720 --> 00:19:27,320 Speaker 1: How long does it take? Probably takes twelve to eighteen months. 329 00:19:28,240 --> 00:19:31,960 Speaker 1: It means for the economy as a whole, things are 330 00:19:32,200 --> 00:19:38,040 Speaker 1: bad until you get to twenty midway. So what does 331 00:19:38,040 --> 00:19:41,359 Speaker 1: that mean to you? As a corporation, if I told 332 00:19:41,359 --> 00:19:44,200 Speaker 1: you your revenues weren't going to be back to their 333 00:19:44,240 --> 00:19:47,840 Speaker 1: peak for eighteen months, you know, that's a pretty tough 334 00:19:47,880 --> 00:19:50,560 Speaker 1: thing to be thinking about if you're a corporation. So 335 00:19:50,680 --> 00:19:56,760 Speaker 1: they have what they need to do UM going forward, UM, 336 00:19:56,760 --> 00:19:59,760 Speaker 1: whether they're going to come up with more programs, I 337 00:20:00,040 --> 00:20:02,440 Speaker 1: out it at this point. I think they've got enough 338 00:20:02,480 --> 00:20:05,320 Speaker 1: programs they need to do the implementation. That was Catherine 339 00:20:05,320 --> 00:20:09,480 Speaker 1: Man of City Global Markets coming up on Wall Street Week. 340 00:20:09,520 --> 00:20:12,320 Speaker 1: He's been a leader in Washington and on Wall Street. 341 00:20:12,760 --> 00:20:15,840 Speaker 1: Ralph Schlostein of ever Core on how the world of 342 00:20:15,880 --> 00:20:19,480 Speaker 1: investment and corporate deals has changed fundamentally in the time 343 00:20:19,600 --> 00:20:23,679 Speaker 1: of the coronavirus. That's next on Wall Street Week on Bloomberg. 344 00:20:28,880 --> 00:20:33,080 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Wall Street Week with David Weston from 345 00:20:33,200 --> 00:20:36,920 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio. In the pre COVID world, investors would look 346 00:20:36,960 --> 00:20:39,960 Speaker 1: at things like how the economy is doing overall, which 347 00:20:40,000 --> 00:20:42,760 Speaker 1: sectors are most likely to grow, and which companies are 348 00:20:42,800 --> 00:20:45,280 Speaker 1: most likely to take advantage of that growth. But now 349 00:20:45,320 --> 00:20:47,960 Speaker 1: with government's pumping a trillions of dollars in the economy, 350 00:20:48,119 --> 00:20:51,640 Speaker 1: the rules have changed. Something we asked Ralph Shawstein, head 351 00:20:51,640 --> 00:20:55,040 Speaker 1: of ever Core, about well, I think, first of all, 352 00:20:55,800 --> 00:21:01,240 Speaker 1: I think the damage is so unprecedented. As I think 353 00:21:01,280 --> 00:21:05,160 Speaker 1: someone pointed out earlier, there have been twenty six million 354 00:21:05,840 --> 00:21:11,280 Speaker 1: unemployment claims in the last five weeks. UH. The highest 355 00:21:11,359 --> 00:21:14,960 Speaker 1: that we ever had, even in the Great Recession was 356 00:21:15,040 --> 00:21:19,520 Speaker 1: seven hundred thousand in one week. So literally this is 357 00:21:20,800 --> 00:21:24,399 Speaker 1: almost ten times what we would have had if we 358 00:21:24,440 --> 00:21:29,880 Speaker 1: had taken the the five highest weeks recorded in history. 359 00:21:30,240 --> 00:21:34,920 Speaker 1: So that the depth and the rapidity of this recession 360 00:21:35,840 --> 00:21:42,080 Speaker 1: is staggering. UH. At the same time, you have UH 361 00:21:42,560 --> 00:21:47,920 Speaker 1: equally unprecedented reactions on the part of both the fiscal 362 00:21:48,280 --> 00:21:52,680 Speaker 1: authorities globally and certainly here in the United States UH 363 00:21:52,720 --> 00:21:57,880 Speaker 1: and central banks the monetary policy UH and particularly are 364 00:21:57,960 --> 00:22:02,919 Speaker 1: fed UH. So the what the market is really struggling 365 00:22:02,960 --> 00:22:07,439 Speaker 1: with is on the one hand, massive and unprecedented and 366 00:22:07,600 --> 00:22:11,640 Speaker 1: rapid destruction UH in the economy, the real economy, which 367 00:22:11,680 --> 00:22:15,359 Speaker 1: is going to affect corporate earnings. And on the other hand, 368 00:22:16,240 --> 00:22:19,760 Speaker 1: trying to look through that and seeing, you know, two 369 00:22:19,840 --> 00:22:22,919 Speaker 1: and a half trillion dollars of fiscal stimulus with the 370 00:22:22,920 --> 00:22:29,880 Speaker 1: three stimulus UH proposals or laws UH and UH that 371 00:22:30,040 --> 00:22:33,879 Speaker 1: is also three times the stimulus that we had in 372 00:22:33,920 --> 00:22:37,960 Speaker 1: the Great Recession and the monetary stimulus. Uh. You know, 373 00:22:38,000 --> 00:22:41,720 Speaker 1: the FED started out buying a hundred billion dollars of 374 00:22:41,760 --> 00:22:45,520 Speaker 1: treasuries and mortgage backed securities a day. The most that 375 00:22:45,640 --> 00:22:48,919 Speaker 1: they ever bought in a month during the Great Recession 376 00:22:49,720 --> 00:22:52,640 Speaker 1: was a hundred billion dollars. So in one day they're 377 00:22:52,680 --> 00:22:56,320 Speaker 1: doing what they did in one month during the Great Recession. 378 00:22:57,040 --> 00:23:02,560 Speaker 1: And so you know, ultimately the fiscal policy and the 379 00:23:02,600 --> 00:23:09,239 Speaker 1: monetary policy will mitigate the depth of the downturn and 380 00:23:09,359 --> 00:23:15,240 Speaker 1: it will uh precipitate a recovery. But we really just 381 00:23:15,320 --> 00:23:17,840 Speaker 1: don't know how long that's going to take, how long 382 00:23:17,840 --> 00:23:20,440 Speaker 1: it's gonna take real foot also how much of a recovery. 383 00:23:20,480 --> 00:23:22,919 Speaker 1: I mean, there's lots of talks about vs and w's 384 00:23:22,960 --> 00:23:25,000 Speaker 1: and j's and us and things like that. Do you 385 00:23:25,000 --> 00:23:27,120 Speaker 1: think a year, two years from now, we'll be close 386 00:23:27,160 --> 00:23:30,440 Speaker 1: to where we were a year ago? I think it's 387 00:23:31,359 --> 00:23:40,399 Speaker 1: highly unlikely that the the uh ramp upward will be 388 00:23:40,640 --> 00:23:43,840 Speaker 1: have the same slope as the ramp downward. And that's because, 389 00:23:43,880 --> 00:23:48,000 Speaker 1: as I said, uh, you know, we're dropping off a 390 00:23:48,000 --> 00:23:56,400 Speaker 1: cliff economically, uh, and you know, unfortunately, until the economy 391 00:23:56,480 --> 00:24:02,200 Speaker 1: starts to reopen, UH, the mealists will basically be a 392 00:24:03,359 --> 00:24:08,320 Speaker 1: tiding over. It's not really going to provide any uh 393 00:24:08,520 --> 00:24:12,520 Speaker 1: stimulus for a recovery. You can't recover when all of 394 00:24:12,680 --> 00:24:15,320 Speaker 1: you know, so many of your small businesses are closed, 395 00:24:15,320 --> 00:24:19,399 Speaker 1: and when so many of your factories are closed. So 396 00:24:19,680 --> 00:24:24,440 Speaker 1: it will hopefully help sustain people who are on unemployment 397 00:24:24,480 --> 00:24:26,920 Speaker 1: and have lost their jobs, many of whom don't have 398 00:24:28,080 --> 00:24:32,040 Speaker 1: much money to tide them from one week to the next. 399 00:24:33,000 --> 00:24:38,240 Speaker 1: But in terms of getting the economy going again, I'm 400 00:24:38,280 --> 00:24:44,640 Speaker 1: confident that our recovery will be dramatically slower uh than 401 00:24:45,480 --> 00:24:49,480 Speaker 1: the recession. Falling in the recession, we're talking in the 402 00:24:49,520 --> 00:24:52,359 Speaker 1: head of ever corps. So in the meantime, even as 403 00:24:52,400 --> 00:24:55,359 Speaker 1: this all unfolds around us, we have investors who are 404 00:24:55,359 --> 00:24:57,560 Speaker 1: trying meant to make to set investment decisions. We have 405 00:24:57,600 --> 00:25:00,240 Speaker 1: c e O s that you advise regularly want to 406 00:25:00,320 --> 00:25:02,880 Speaker 1: make their decisions about where their company goes in this 407 00:25:02,920 --> 00:25:04,919 Speaker 1: new world? Do you have to take into account what 408 00:25:04,960 --> 00:25:07,480 Speaker 1: the government, whether it's fiscal or monetary, it's likely to 409 00:25:07,520 --> 00:25:10,240 Speaker 1: do even more than what the economy or an individual 410 00:25:10,280 --> 00:25:13,200 Speaker 1: company is going to do. Well, fiscal and monetary policy 411 00:25:13,359 --> 00:25:18,000 Speaker 1: are an incredibly important input at this point in time. 412 00:25:18,359 --> 00:25:22,800 Speaker 1: They're an important input for some companies UH in terms 413 00:25:22,800 --> 00:25:26,960 Speaker 1: of survival. Do they have the access to cash to 414 00:25:27,920 --> 00:25:34,080 Speaker 1: maintain their operations and to stay out of bankruptcy? Uh. 415 00:25:34,160 --> 00:25:37,080 Speaker 1: And they're also important for companies who are in a 416 00:25:37,160 --> 00:25:43,360 Speaker 1: stronger position but who rely on the aggregate level of demand. UH. 417 00:25:43,400 --> 00:25:45,639 Speaker 1: And we have a we have an economy which is 418 00:25:45,680 --> 00:25:51,960 Speaker 1: seventy driven by the consumer. UH. So UH without a 419 00:25:52,040 --> 00:25:57,560 Speaker 1: growing economy and a strong consumer UH. Even companies that 420 00:25:57,640 --> 00:26:02,760 Speaker 1: are not as materially affected by the COVID nineteen pandemic 421 00:26:03,560 --> 00:26:07,639 Speaker 1: still have to look very carefully at economic policy and 422 00:26:07,680 --> 00:26:10,720 Speaker 1: monetary policy. Let's talk about your business a bit ralph. 423 00:26:10,760 --> 00:26:12,879 Speaker 1: I mean, you had your earning statement recently, and you 424 00:26:13,000 --> 00:26:16,520 Speaker 1: already had done some retrenching for some softness in the marketplace. 425 00:26:16,640 --> 00:26:18,680 Speaker 1: How is this going to affect ever corps? Well that 426 00:26:18,880 --> 00:26:22,960 Speaker 1: you know, our biggest business is h M and A, 427 00:26:24,359 --> 00:26:29,919 Speaker 1: and h M and A relies basically on you know, 428 00:26:30,000 --> 00:26:34,080 Speaker 1: a number of conditions to be UH. To behave normally, 429 00:26:34,520 --> 00:26:39,639 Speaker 1: it relies on a reasonably stable and well valued stock market. 430 00:26:39,760 --> 00:26:44,919 Speaker 1: It relies on high availability of credit. It relies on 431 00:26:45,480 --> 00:26:50,800 Speaker 1: a reasonable judgment or sense of where the economy is 432 00:26:50,840 --> 00:26:56,800 Speaker 1: going UH, and it relies on CEO confidence. The last 433 00:26:56,840 --> 00:27:01,639 Speaker 1: three are not present right now. There's not readily available credit. 434 00:27:02,600 --> 00:27:06,359 Speaker 1: We have no idea how the economy is going to 435 00:27:06,480 --> 00:27:09,360 Speaker 1: evolve over the next six to twelve months, and as 436 00:27:09,359 --> 00:27:14,119 Speaker 1: a consequence, CEO confidence is low. So our largest business 437 00:27:14,240 --> 00:27:17,200 Speaker 1: M and A UH is clearly going to be quite 438 00:27:17,240 --> 00:27:22,240 Speaker 1: negatively affected. The good news for us is that we've 439 00:27:22,280 --> 00:27:27,479 Speaker 1: invested heavily in businesses that help UH, where we can 440 00:27:27,520 --> 00:27:31,080 Speaker 1: advise companies on their balance sheets, either in restructuring or 441 00:27:31,119 --> 00:27:36,520 Speaker 1: advising them on debt or on equity capital raising. And 442 00:27:36,600 --> 00:27:40,920 Speaker 1: so we're very busy UH, even though we're spread out 443 00:27:40,960 --> 00:27:46,159 Speaker 1: among eighteen hundred offices around the globe. But you know, 444 00:27:46,200 --> 00:27:50,480 Speaker 1: the businesses that I just described aren't big enough for 445 00:27:50,600 --> 00:27:54,200 Speaker 1: us to offset what will be a pretty significant decline 446 00:27:54,520 --> 00:27:57,199 Speaker 1: in M and A activity for sure. Well, if you 447 00:27:57,240 --> 00:27:59,639 Speaker 1: look out if you can over the next twelve eighteen months, 448 00:27:59,720 --> 00:28:02,000 Speaker 1: do you expect that you will grow much more in 449 00:28:02,119 --> 00:28:06,760 Speaker 1: things like advising on workouts, in restructurings and dispositions, which 450 00:28:06,760 --> 00:28:09,199 Speaker 1: one would think would grow to make up for at 451 00:28:09,280 --> 00:28:11,119 Speaker 1: least a good part of the M and A do 452 00:28:11,119 --> 00:28:12,919 Speaker 1: you do you have the opportunity to grow into that 453 00:28:13,000 --> 00:28:15,280 Speaker 1: part of the business. Yeah, those parts of our business 454 00:28:15,440 --> 00:28:20,600 Speaker 1: are going more than flat out. And we're actually repurposing 455 00:28:20,640 --> 00:28:25,560 Speaker 1: some of our bankers to become restructuring bankers and financing 456 00:28:25,600 --> 00:28:30,600 Speaker 1: bankers because it's the same uh set of skills uh 457 00:28:30,720 --> 00:28:35,520 Speaker 1: in many circumstances. So no question, UH, those parts of 458 00:28:35,560 --> 00:28:38,280 Speaker 1: our business are going flat out. They will grow very 459 00:28:38,440 --> 00:28:42,600 Speaker 1: rapidly over the next twelve to eighteen months. But as 460 00:28:42,600 --> 00:28:46,600 Speaker 1: I said, UH, they're not the same size as our 461 00:28:46,720 --> 00:28:50,040 Speaker 1: M and A business, so overall, uh, they it's hard 462 00:28:50,080 --> 00:28:52,560 Speaker 1: for them to make up for what will be an 463 00:28:52,600 --> 00:28:56,440 Speaker 1: inevitable decline in in M and A. But by the way, 464 00:28:56,480 --> 00:29:02,200 Speaker 1: if we do get a reasonably uh rapid recovery uh 465 00:29:02,240 --> 00:29:07,520 Speaker 1: and and some uh settling down, it's quite possible that 466 00:29:07,720 --> 00:29:11,480 Speaker 1: M and A activity will pick up again, you know, 467 00:29:11,640 --> 00:29:15,840 Speaker 1: six to nine months from now. It will just require 468 00:29:16,600 --> 00:29:21,160 Speaker 1: some visibility about the direction of the economy and settling 469 00:29:21,200 --> 00:29:24,840 Speaker 1: down of markets. Before that happens, we still have lots 470 00:29:24,880 --> 00:29:28,560 Speaker 1: of active dialogue with our clients because there are many 471 00:29:28,600 --> 00:29:32,400 Speaker 1: things that they still want to do. It's just uh, 472 00:29:32,440 --> 00:29:35,320 Speaker 1: you know, everybody is reluctant that old phrase you don't 473 00:29:35,360 --> 00:29:38,240 Speaker 1: want to catch a falling knife. Do you expect that 474 00:29:38,240 --> 00:29:40,000 Speaker 1: there will be as many bankers at have a court 475 00:29:40,040 --> 00:29:42,720 Speaker 1: and more broadly in investment banking two years from now 476 00:29:42,760 --> 00:29:46,960 Speaker 1: as it was again one year ago? I do. Actually, UH, 477 00:29:47,160 --> 00:29:49,680 Speaker 1: my guess is two or three years from now, we'll 478 00:29:49,680 --> 00:29:55,560 Speaker 1: have more than we have today because we've uh, you know, 479 00:29:55,640 --> 00:30:02,720 Speaker 1: consistently taken market share. Our business model of independent advice 480 00:30:02,840 --> 00:30:09,600 Speaker 1: without any conflicts with our clients hugely resonates with uh 481 00:30:10,080 --> 00:30:14,640 Speaker 1: both large and you know, small and medium sized uh 482 00:30:14,760 --> 00:30:20,720 Speaker 1: MidCap companies. So uh, even this last quarter, we once 483 00:30:20,760 --> 00:30:24,640 Speaker 1: again gained market share in the advisory business. Our advisory 484 00:30:24,720 --> 00:30:30,160 Speaker 1: revenues were up, and the average of the five large 485 00:30:30,960 --> 00:30:35,520 Speaker 1: US firms UH Golden Sacks, JP, Morgan Morgan, Stanley, b 486 00:30:35,640 --> 00:30:42,000 Speaker 1: of A and City was down. So we're taking share, uh. 487 00:30:42,040 --> 00:30:45,440 Speaker 1: And in order to continue to take share, uh, you know, 488 00:30:45,600 --> 00:30:50,840 Speaker 1: our only uh input to our revenues as people uh 489 00:30:50,920 --> 00:30:54,280 Speaker 1: And so we will continue to grow. And finally, well, 490 00:30:54,400 --> 00:30:56,640 Speaker 1: what about sectors? Do you see a difference in sectors 491 00:30:56,640 --> 00:30:59,000 Speaker 1: among the companies you deal with? For example, right now, 492 00:30:59,000 --> 00:31:02,160 Speaker 1: it seems like telecom is more needed than ever online 493 00:31:02,200 --> 00:31:05,640 Speaker 1: is needed more than ever. Uh. Certainly the tech sector 494 00:31:05,680 --> 00:31:07,560 Speaker 1: seems to be rising. Do you see as you deal 495 00:31:07,640 --> 00:31:11,200 Speaker 1: with your clients that there's more openness, more confidence, more 496 00:31:11,640 --> 00:31:14,680 Speaker 1: opportunity there than perhaps in some other more traditional areas 497 00:31:14,720 --> 00:31:18,760 Speaker 1: such as manufacturing materials, things like that. Well there there, 498 00:31:18,800 --> 00:31:21,520 Speaker 1: there are going to be a massive number of changes 499 00:31:22,080 --> 00:31:27,240 Speaker 1: uh in our uh uh in all in lots of 500 00:31:27,520 --> 00:31:31,120 Speaker 1: sectors as a result of this UH number one, we're 501 00:31:31,160 --> 00:31:36,720 Speaker 1: all learning uh that we can be highly productive uh 502 00:31:37,240 --> 00:31:42,040 Speaker 1: without being all in the same place. That has implications 503 00:31:42,200 --> 00:31:46,400 Speaker 1: for uh, you know, center city real estate. That has 504 00:31:46,440 --> 00:31:53,600 Speaker 1: implications for in my view, uh family leave uh policies. 505 00:31:53,800 --> 00:31:56,600 Speaker 1: That was Welsh lastein of ever Corps. That does it 506 00:31:56,680 --> 00:31:59,240 Speaker 1: for Wall Street League this week. I'm David Weston. See 507 00:31:59,280 --> 00:31:59,760 Speaker 1: you next time.