Speaker 1: You're listening to The Buck Sexton Show podcast, make sure
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Speaker 2: Hey, everybody, welcome to the Buck Sexton Show. We're very pleased.
Speaker 2: On this episode, our friend Ryan Gerdski joins us. He
Speaker 2: is the guy who writes the National Populist newsletter on Substack,
Speaker 2: which you should all subscribe to. You I am a
Speaker 2: subscriber and always look forward to new Substacks as they
Speaker 2: are published there. He's also a political consultant, perhaps a
Speaker 2: political wizard on his best days.
Speaker 3: Great to have you, Ryan, Thanks for having me.
Speaker 2: So let's start with American voter in twenty twenty four.
Speaker 2: You crunch the numbers, you looked at the data. It's
Speaker 2: about to get real, right. We've got a Republican debate
Speaker 2: coming up soon. It's going to be the primaries before
Speaker 2: we know what people are going to be casting ballots.
Speaker 2: What O folks need to know about how twenty twenty
Speaker 2: four is shaping up by the numbers so far, Well, the.
Speaker 1: Biggest thing is what is the demographic of the country
Speaker 1: going to look like? That's a big, big question. You know,
Speaker 1: when George Bush ran in two thousand and four, the
Speaker 1: country was almost eighty percent of the voting electorate was white.
Speaker 1: You go to some swing states like Florida, sorry of
Speaker 1: North Carolina. North Carolina was a biracial state. It was
Speaker 1: just black and whites, I mean non people who are
Speaker 1: not black, not white, were less than two percent of
Speaker 1: the voting population. Those things aren't the same, aren't true
Speaker 1: anymore at all. And I think what happens in people's heads, specifically,
Speaker 1: is they get frozen in time. You know, the population
Speaker 1: of voters who will be millennials and zoomers will be
Speaker 1: up substantially. There were basically no zoomers in There were
Speaker 1: none at all in sixteen, and there were very few
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty. There'll be substantially millions more in twenty
Speaker 1: twenty four. And a lot of the biggest swing states
Speaker 1: like North Carolina again, Arizona, Florida, have had population growth
Speaker 1: that exceed the margins of previous elections cycles. So just
Speaker 1: because something happened four or eighty years ago, because the
Speaker 1: net migration interstatement migration, let alone forget immigration, that's the
Speaker 1: interstate migration is so large and so profound. The pot
Speaker 1: the fixed population and the fixed voting demographics have changed substantially,
Speaker 1: and that's what we'll forget mostly.
Speaker 2: Now, what is the biggest up for grabs voting demographic
Speaker 2: for twenty twenty four, Like if you could, oh, I.
Speaker 1: Mean, yeah, I make I mean there has been substantial
Speaker 1: change in the Asian.
Speaker 3: And Hispanic vote. And I'll take an example of New
Speaker 3: York City.
Speaker 1: For example, New York City in Bronx, which you know,
Speaker 1: the Bronx. The Bronx is a very heavily heavily Hispanic
Speaker 1: majority population with no functional Republican party. There is no
Speaker 1: Republican party in the Bronx. There might as well not
Speaker 1: be their population. People who voted Republican in that county
Speaker 1: almost doubled from some sixteen to twenty twenty. And then
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty one there was the mayoral election and
Speaker 1: the population of people voting Republican increase, even as the
Speaker 1: Republican candidate for mayor got like twenty eight percent in
Speaker 1: the city. And then if you look at the governor's race,
Speaker 1: which was more competitive, obviously the population of Republicans voting
Speaker 1: in that county increased. Again, Republicans did not gain any
Speaker 1: new votes from twenty twenty two from twenty twenty to
Speaker 1: twenty twenty two, but they did not lose any supporting
Speaker 1: amongst Hispanics. So one of the biggest things is that
Speaker 1: probably the Hispanic baseline level for Republicans is higher than
Speaker 1: it was just you know, six years ago, eight years ago,
Speaker 1: where the number would be in the mid twenties, it's
Speaker 1: probably in the mid thirties. Now a great candidate, a
Speaker 1: great campaign, you could probably get into the low forties,
Speaker 1: which is good. But you have to remember a lot
Speaker 1: of Hispanics live in places that are not competitive California, Illinois,
Speaker 1: New York, New Jersey. It makes it a little it
Speaker 1: makes their vote increase important, but less so than that.
Speaker 1: And it would be with black voters if blackletters moving,
Speaker 1: which they're not moving. Asian voters similarly, and local elections
Speaker 1: have started moving Republican. I don't know if that will
Speaker 1: carry to federal elections as different issues, but certainly on
Speaker 1: crime a number of issues, Republican voters and I take
Speaker 1: it back to New York City, Republican Asian voters move
Speaker 1: fifty points right from twenty eighteen to twenty twenty two,
Speaker 1: and especially in Chinatown, Brooklyn and Chinatown and Queens if
Speaker 1: you look at the and if you look at twenty
Speaker 1: twenty two, one of the places totally non competitive, no
Speaker 1: functioning Republican party. A place Republicans grew a lot of
Speaker 1: support was in Hawaii, of all places, very weak Republican
Speaker 1: Party there, but the Asian vote did move right and
Speaker 1: help Republicans elect three state legislators that they didn't have before.
Speaker 1: But the biggest vote, where it matters, where the votes
Speaker 1: matter go in large portions, are the non college educated wife.
Speaker 1: Still in twenty twenty, people have a picture in their
Speaker 1: head that the average Biden voters a college educated woman
Speaker 1: or a black woman.
Speaker 3: That is the portry the.
Speaker 1: Media puts out there. The biggest demographic of Biden voters
Speaker 1: were non college.
Speaker 3: Educated white voters. Thirty two percent.
Speaker 1: One of every three Biden voters was non college educated
Speaker 1: white people. Overall, twenty six million Americans, About twenty percent
Speaker 1: of that population supports building a border world. About thirty
Speaker 1: percent supports banning abortion after twenty four weeks twenty weeks.
Speaker 3: Something like that.
Speaker 1: They have a number of conservative things. It's one in five,
Speaker 1: it's one in five non college educated whites. Within one
Speaker 1: of three voters is six percent of the Biden base
Speaker 1: is movable, which is about six million voters. That is
Speaker 1: substantial in an election where the elections in the last
Speaker 1: two presidential cycles have been decided by under one hundred
Speaker 1: thousand votes in swing states, and the biggest populations of
Speaker 1: non college educated whites are the russ Belts, which is
Speaker 1: up for grabs places like New Hampshire main SEC and
Speaker 1: congressional and substantial portions in places still like North Carolina,
Speaker 1: which is a large population of non college educated whites.
Speaker 1: I would think that is one place they could focus
Speaker 1: on substantially if there was an effort by.
Speaker 3: The GOP to register those voters.
Speaker 1: There's still over forty million non college educated whites we're
Speaker 1: not interested to vote as of twenty sixteen May. Let's
Speaker 1: say it's thirty five million today. It's a lot of people.
Speaker 1: Those are the places that are the easiest for grabs
Speaker 1: and the easy places Republicans can gain support because at
Speaker 1: the same time they're losing support still among college educated
Speaker 1: white voters and that vote is receding. Remember that when
Speaker 1: people think of like the Bush years twenty five years ago,
Speaker 1: and they think or twenty years ago, and they think
Speaker 1: of an old voter in that time they're talking about
Speaker 1: the Greatest generation. That generation has died out. The generations
Speaker 1: replaced in as an old voter is the silence And
Speaker 1: people think of the Silent Generation almost as intertwined with
Speaker 1: the Greatest Generation, very close. But there's a great book
Speaker 1: called Generations I had just read by Jeanette Twinge.
Speaker 3: I think it is.
Speaker 1: It's a very long book full of data, and the
Speaker 1: Silent Generation are much more left wing than the Greatest
Speaker 1: Generation were. Silent generation is the generation that did Stone Wall,
Speaker 1: that were the hippie generation. They were the one who
Speaker 1: went to Woodstock, not the baby boomers. The baby Boomers
Speaker 1: adapted to their culture changes, but the people who led
Speaker 1: the big changes culture than the sixties was the site
Speaker 1: was Joe Biden generation, not you know, not our parents,
Speaker 1: Boomer generation. They just grew up in it. And I
Speaker 1: think that's important to realize. So you'll have an aging
Speaker 1: off of the more conservative voters, and you have a
Speaker 1: lot of more progressive voters and coming up through Generation
Speaker 1: Z and you have and you have college educated whites
Speaker 1: continuing to leave the GOP. So to make up for
Speaker 1: that in the millions, you need to make up for
Speaker 1: that the non college educated white vote is still the
Speaker 1: largest voting demographic along with working class Hispanics. To get
Speaker 1: I know it's a very long winded answer.
Speaker 2: No, it's important data. I want to come back and
Speaker 2: ask you how you think the Republican nominee, whoever he
Speaker 2: ends up being, probably Trump, but whoever it ends up being,
Speaker 2: can chip away at Biden's white, non college educated voter base.
Speaker 2: But we'll talk because I think that's something that Trump
Speaker 2: did in twenty sixteen clearly against Hillary. Right, So this
Speaker 2: is a central battleground politically going to the next election.
Speaker 2: We'll get into that in one second. But first up,
Speaker 2: you know, there are some people that still think the
Speaker 2: economy is gonna tank. At least the market's going to
Speaker 2: tank in the months ahead and things could get ugly
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Speaker 2: of precious metals. Eight three three seven zero seven gold
Speaker 2: eight three three seven zero seven gold. That's eight three
Speaker 2: to three seven zero seven gold. How does a Republican
Speaker 2: get enough of the Biden white, non college educated vote
Speaker 2: to beat Biden in the Key States?
Speaker 1: I think well. I mean, there are certain things working
Speaker 1: their advantage. The border is a disaster and people are
Speaker 1: very well aware of that. Inflation is super high. I
Speaker 1: read a CNN headline, although I did not read the
Speaker 1: article admittedly, that average prices are up eight hundred dollars
Speaker 1: from two years ago for the average household monthly items,
Speaker 1: and that would be.
Speaker 3: A very very big thing.
Speaker 1: I spoke to a Biden voter who is someone I
Speaker 1: know not super well, but she started bringing politics and
Speaker 1: she said, I'll just deal with the mean tweets I'm
Speaker 1: going to vote for Trump, non college educated, white working
Speaker 1: class woman, single woman, even though she's pro choice and
Speaker 1: all the rest of so the economy is working in
Speaker 1: their favor for sure. I think a lynchpin for a
Speaker 1: lot of people who are working class that Republicans have
Speaker 1: failed to address in a meaningful way is healthcare.
Speaker 3: I think that there's a big, big, big loophole.
Speaker 1: I don't really know the Republican health care plan of
Speaker 1: any major candidate. I don't think that there is a
Speaker 1: way that they have addressed that succinctly that people understand.
Speaker 1: Using terms like free market, let the free market decide means,
Speaker 1: we'll see how it goes, will wing it. Things like
Speaker 1: trying to bring up accessibility, prices and costs.
Speaker 3: Are really where the major factors are.
Speaker 1: So if we don't want an alternative of socialized medicine
Speaker 1: and there's a lot of pitfalls to it, what are
Speaker 1: we going to do to make healthcare more affordable and
Speaker 1: a better option for people who you know they're living
Speaker 1: paycheck by paycheck. I know from my personal health insurance
Speaker 1: that I pay out of my company is like twelve
Speaker 1: hundred a month. I don't really know a lot of
Speaker 1: people who be able if they have a family of
Speaker 1: four and the company doesn't pay for all of it.
Speaker 1: It's in the thousands of months, and I don't know
Speaker 1: a lot of people get sit there and do it.
Speaker 1: So are they either get Obamacare or crappy healthcare or
Speaker 1: they just settle for no healthcare. So I think that's
Speaker 1: a major, major focal point that the Republicans have failed
Speaker 1: to address. And I think that it's a major it's
Speaker 1: a major issue within the GOP if you.
Speaker 3: Look at it.
Speaker 2: Wait, I'm gonna have to jump in because otherwise you're
Speaker 2: telling us brilliant stuff. I does anyone on the GP
Speaker 2: side have a healthcare platform yet that they have articulated?
Speaker 2: Does that? Even if you ask me right now, I
Speaker 2: do this for a living, I'm not aware of it.
Speaker 3: I don't know. I've never heard of one.
Speaker 1: I mean, rallying against Obamacare was very effective when Obamacare
Speaker 1: was new. It's kind of settled in when people when
Speaker 1: Republicans give standard answers like the free market, that doesn't
Speaker 1: mean anything to a lot of people, and it's a
Speaker 1: very it's a scary idea is you're just not going
Speaker 1: to have healthcare and then Eventually the corporations who you
Speaker 1: kind of feel have like hurt you over the pass
Speaker 1: with healthcare, are are going to strew you over again.
Speaker 1: And I think that's why we're probably this is not
Speaker 1: a prediction, but this is just like where the public
Speaker 1: is going. They're going to get closer and closer towards
Speaker 1: a socialized healthcare thing at least or probably emergency care.
Speaker 3: You know. JD.
Speaker 1: Mann's is out there as a Republican and he's talking
Speaker 1: about trying to make at least healthcare for baby deliveries free.
Speaker 1: I just think that this is going to be the
Speaker 1: natural movement of most voters over time, and I think
Speaker 1: that this is a major hiccup. But I said before.
Speaker 2: About to ask you a question, how do we make healthcare?
Speaker 2: I mean, because I agree that's been the trajectory. How
Speaker 2: do we handle making health care free when we're setting
Speaker 2: up refugee camps for illegals in New York City and
Speaker 2: other places? You know what I mean?
Speaker 3: How are you? Yeah, that's a great question.
Speaker 1: You can't I mean now without bankrupting the system, and
Speaker 1: these cities and states are already going bankrupt. There was
Speaker 1: a great article, by the way, I totally sided in
Speaker 1: the City, which is a good publication at New York City,
Speaker 1: but it's a total left wing everyone's a liberal. And
Speaker 1: their article was like, because they have the city council
Speaker 1: elections this year in New York and they said city
Speaker 1: council candid sound more and more.
Speaker 3: Like Republicans on immigration and migrants.
Speaker 1: So it was just very very well, how you know,
Speaker 1: when it's happening in their backyard, all of a sudden,
Speaker 1: everyone is, you know, Joe Rpio, not really that much,
Speaker 1: not that extent, but they're definitely.
Speaker 3: More hawkish on immigration than they were.
Speaker 1: But yeah, you can, I mean everyone acknowledges you can't
Speaker 1: have a welfare system and have open borders. Joe Biden famously,
Speaker 1: which I don't know why Republicans did not pounce on
Speaker 1: greater in twenty twenty set there instead, he wanted free
Speaker 1: healthcare for illegal Alians. I mean, that's the magnet bringing
Speaker 1: them all over. I don't you know if you can
Speaker 1: have an economic argument on migration issues. The reason that
Speaker 1: part of a big part of the reason we don't
Speaker 1: have affordable housing in this country is because everybody wants
Speaker 1: to live in the same twenty five metropolitan areas No
Speaker 1: one wants to live in the Nevada Desert just they
Speaker 1: don't want to. They don't want to live in Wyoming,
Speaker 1: they don't want to live in northern New Hampshire. They
Speaker 1: want to live in the same twenty five metro areas
Speaker 1: that everybody else wants to live in. And even though
Speaker 1: we're building over a million homes a year, when you
Speaker 1: take in one point two one point three million people legally,
Speaker 1: and then you have a bunch of eighteen year olds
Speaker 1: turning eighteen wanting to buy homes and people living longer,
Speaker 1: it creates an immense crush when it comes to housing.
Speaker 3: Migration is a big part of that. Healthcare is a
Speaker 3: big part of that.
Speaker 1: I think that there is an economic argument towards migration
Speaker 1: that people are not bringing up that could definitely sway
Speaker 1: over some working class people, especially as more and more
Speaker 1: of them are seeing these migrant cities, migrants, you know,
Speaker 1: crunching the numbers. In augustuns Massachusetts declared state of emergency
Speaker 1: over migration, and they're only spending fifty million dollars I
Speaker 1: think a month. Right now, New York City is spending
Speaker 1: twelve billion in the next two years. One in ten
Speaker 1: dollars is going to migrants in New York City's budget.
Speaker 2: I just don't understand how anyone thinks this is sustainable.
Speaker 2: But it also it also will they're going to call
Speaker 2: for federal bailouts. They already are calling for federal bailouts,
Speaker 2: which I think is fascinating because it means the usual
Speaker 2: thing that I get when I talk about this issue,
Speaker 2: Ryan is people who live in Nebraska are like, whatever
Speaker 2: sucks for New York. Well, actually, what they're hoping to
Speaker 2: do is to bail out New York with the tax
Speaker 2: dollars that people everywhere across the country right, or at
Speaker 2: least to run off the debt even more. But this
Speaker 2: storyline for so many years was illegals do the jobs
Speaker 2: Americans won't do. You know, you get some Cato Institute
Speaker 2: flax who will say, oh, illegals, all they do is
Speaker 2: contribute to the economy. We need them or Social Security
Speaker 2: is going to fall apart, and someone us are sitting
Speaker 2: here saying, first of all, they're coming to the country illegally.
Speaker 2: Second of all, they're lying to border patrol about why
Speaker 2: they're coming. They're scamming the system. They overwhelmingly don't speak English,
Speaker 2: They are semi literate at best in any language. They
Speaker 2: have no discernible skills, they have no background checks that
Speaker 2: have been run, and they're going to be able to
Speaker 2: compete and be a net contributor in an increasing the
Speaker 2: information based economy.
Speaker 1: In an economy that is happily mechanizing low skilled jobs,
Speaker 1: and it kind of is rapidly. We've gone to McDonald's recently,
Speaker 1: I mean maybe you probably haven't, but they're all robots.
Speaker 3: I mean, and a lot of McDonald's.
Speaker 1: There are robots taking your order, and there are robots
Speaker 1: serving you food, and there are robots. Growing up, you
Speaker 1: wanted to go from New York to New Jersey, you
Speaker 1: had to sit and wait and line to throw a
Speaker 1: quarter or give a dollar to a lady in a booth.
Speaker 1: There's no more ladies in a booth. It's all robots.
Speaker 1: We are mechanizing low skilled jobs across this country. So
Speaker 1: how do you have a twenty first century economy with
Speaker 1: a twentieth century labor force? No one, there's a way
Speaker 1: to articulate that in a profound way. There are brilliant
Speaker 1: immigrants that come to this country. There are scientists, there
Speaker 1: are data researchers. There maybe is the next Albert Einstein
Speaker 1: sitting somewhere in some place, but the overwhelming number aren't.
Speaker 3: And it's so my favorite like stupid libertarian argument.
Speaker 1: Is like, oh, you know x amount of billionaires have
Speaker 1: come to people who made billion dollar companies have come
Speaker 1: from as immigrants. If you ever look at the countries
Speaker 1: they come from, it's like eighty five percent Western Europe, Israel,
Speaker 1: East Asia, and Australia or Canada. Like it doesn't match
Speaker 1: our immigration populations at all, Like the like there's four
Speaker 1: from Africa and one is Elon musk so like there's
Speaker 1: almost none from like Central America or South America, So
Speaker 1: we don't have where our immigration policy is a twentieth
Speaker 1: century immigration policy for a twenty first century county. It
Speaker 1: doesn't match up at all, and it causes other economic problems,
Speaker 1: partially in healthcare, partially in education costs, partially.
Speaker 3: In housing costs.
Speaker 1: Those are real working class even concerns for younger people
Speaker 1: that you have to seriously sit there and address, and
Speaker 1: maybe Seale don't want to hear. Maybe they're like, no,
Speaker 1: you know, this is against my ideas. And America's the
Speaker 1: nation immigrants, and they've been fed certain lines for so
Speaker 1: long they believe them. But there isn't a population where
Speaker 1: you're not scapegoating immigrants. You're not staying there and saying
Speaker 1: these people are the problem. You're saying if you continue
Speaker 1: the way that you are. Had we kept the immigration
Speaker 1: numbers of nineteen ninety nine, which were six hundred and
Speaker 1: fifty thousand a year, it's not a small number. We
Speaker 1: would have had twenty five million fewer people in America today.
Speaker 1: Twenty five million fewer people is a probably a net
Speaker 1: of eight million empty homes today. Eight million empty homes
Speaker 1: would have reduced to overall prices by probably ten percent,
Speaker 1: and it wouldn't be such a huge home crunch right now.
Speaker 1: In many places, and not just hotspots like Miami, people
Speaker 1: can't afford homes and you know, Pennsylvania, people can't afford
Speaker 1: homes in a lot of parts.
Speaker 3: Of this country.
Speaker 1: So I think that that's a very interesting point in
Speaker 1: one I would like to sit there and hear from
Speaker 1: and I like to sit there and hear from people from.
Speaker 3: About like what's real, what's real needs?
Speaker 1: In the article I wrote from The American Conservative, the
Speaker 1: number one issue people talk about is the economy. Number
Speaker 1: two is inflation and then number like four is immigration.
Speaker 1: There's a way to tie this up and connect these
Speaker 1: things while addressing the biggest concerns of housing costs, healthcare costs,
Speaker 1: and economic job growth.
Speaker 2: I want to ask you about, uh, this RFK phenomenon
Speaker 2: to agree that it is a phenomenon and whether yeah, right, right,
Speaker 2: Well we'll talk about this in just a second. Because
Speaker 2: the only people I ever hear talking about RFK are
Speaker 2: Trump voting Republicans. That's that's just my experience. The only
Speaker 2: people I've ever heard bring him up anywhere on TV
Speaker 2: anywhere else pretty much is and might I say, bring
Speaker 2: him up like talk about him as a serious political force.
Speaker 2: You know, people will cover him in the news. But
Speaker 2: we're gonna and yeah, we're going to get to this
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Speaker 2: by Palm Beach Research Group RFK Junior. Gavin Newsom is
Speaker 2: going to take over for Biden? Where does all this
Speaker 2: stuff sayd I want to pull my hair out because
Speaker 2: I get people that not only do they think that's
Speaker 2: going to happen, they think I'm I'm silly for not
Speaker 2: recognizing that Joe Biden, I mean, it's almost twenty twenty,
Speaker 2: like we're gonna be in twenty twenty four here in
Speaker 2: the blink of an eye, is just going to allow
Speaker 2: there to be a Democrat primary at the last minute.
Speaker 1: Because also, I mean, it's it's not like there are
Speaker 1: there's an old joke in politics that every elected official
Speaker 1: from the dogcatcher to the governor's of being president if
Speaker 1: Joe Biden was as vulnerable, there is no way in
Speaker 1: this world that Pritzker the governor of Illinois, wouldn't seriously
Speaker 1: be considting a run. Gretchen Whitmer, governor Michigan, wouldn't ben
Speaker 1: seriously be considering a run. Jared Pole Is probably governor
Speaker 1: of Colorado is probably be consciously said a run. Not
Speaker 1: to mention like the Corey Bookers and the people who
Speaker 1: just want to be president so badly who are more
Speaker 1: of a joke also, and Bernie Sanders to appoint too,
Speaker 1: They're all not There would be no plausible way that
Speaker 1: they would all be sitting out of it and just
Speaker 1: let Gavin Newsome habit because they all want to be president.
Speaker 1: So it's not that I don't think Joe Biden is vulnerable.
Speaker 1: I think he is vulnerable to a part to a point,
Speaker 1: but if he drops out, it's going to be a
Speaker 1: mad rush. And also Kamla. Like we it's America of
Speaker 1: twenty twenty three. We know how Democrats talk about race
Speaker 1: and identity. There is no way that they are going
Speaker 1: to just skip over the first half Asian, half black
Speaker 1: email vice president to give it to a white, straight
Speaker 1: guy from California. There's just it's just not it's not working.
Speaker 1: I've never heard by the way, a Democrat ever talk
Speaker 1: about Gaven Newsom ever, I've never heard.
Speaker 3: I've heard them talk.
Speaker 1: About their fantasy people, the people they love, even Poodha
Speaker 1: Judge and people that Republicans roll their eyes at. I
Speaker 1: have never in my life for one Democrat site. You know,
Speaker 1: Gavin Newsom me be a great, great president.
Speaker 2: So what happens there? Like, do do you just think
Speaker 2: that Biden becomes the guy going forward? And or that
Speaker 2: rather stays the guy going forward? And all this talk
Speaker 2: is just something that the pundits have because to me,
Speaker 2: why would you give up the incumbency to allow there
Speaker 2: to be some kind of a fight over this Three.
Speaker 1: D chess hunters going to jail? Yaha, yah, a Merrick
Speaker 1: Ireland's having. I mean, there's a lot of things that
Speaker 1: that they talk about in relation to Hunter and Merrick
Speaker 1: Garland's you know, special like a diamond hunter. Here's the
Speaker 1: bigger question, would Shoe Biden be in a petter position
Speaker 1: to help his as president or as not president? We
Speaker 1: all know the answer is as president. So if I
Speaker 1: like the if, the if the conspiracy theory about Toronto
Speaker 1: the conspiracy, but if the opinion about Trump is he's
Speaker 1: running for president, so he doesn't go to jail, And
Speaker 1: there's an equal theory that Hunter should go to.
Speaker 3: Jail in a just world, and maybe there's a lot
Speaker 3: of merit to that.
Speaker 1: Would Joe Biden be in a better posient or Joe
Speaker 1: Biden we be forced to retire to Hunters going to jail,
Speaker 1: would Joe be in a better position of his son
Speaker 1: as president or not as president? The answers is president.
Speaker 1: So it makes literally no sense in my in my calculation.
Speaker 1: And once again you have I've said this to you
Speaker 1: on the radio. I think you have to December like
Speaker 1: fourteenth to qualify for the Democratic primaries. So I mean
Speaker 1: we have a few months. Maybe they'd all rush in
Speaker 1: the barn and Joe, I mean, Joe is probably one
Speaker 1: hundred days to a side then and I want to retire.
Speaker 3: I don't feel up to it, or you know whatever.
Speaker 1: But you'd have one hundred days and after that point,
Speaker 1: it's the feel will be who it is. And I
Speaker 1: don't see how. I don't see how, you know how
Speaker 1: it's going to Also, DNC would have to start doing
Speaker 1: debates and stuff like that, which aren't even on the
Speaker 1: schedule r And yet it would be very, very very difficult.
Speaker 1: And the person of the highest name ID going in
Speaker 1: in that short period time is Kamala Harris.
Speaker 3: Whether people think that she's a joke and I think
Speaker 3: that she's a.
Speaker 1: Joke as well, Democrats genuinely like her, and she has
Speaker 1: the highest name landing.
Speaker 2: So how do you think that all this prosecution of Trump' stuff?
Speaker 2: Do we have any indications about what this does to
Speaker 2: independent voters? Do they rally to Trump? Do they get
Speaker 2: kind of pushed away from Trump? Do we have any
Speaker 2: sense of this at all?
Speaker 1: Do you honestly believe that there is a woman saying
Speaker 1: in the suburbs of Atlanta who voted for Trump in
Speaker 1: sixteen couldn't take him for all the mean tweets in
Speaker 1: twenty and are going to look at this and say,
Speaker 1: you now give him a second chance?
Speaker 3: He has eighty and that's going on. I mean, and what.
Speaker 1: Scenario does all of this pressure from the federal government
Speaker 1: make Trump act in a.
Speaker 3: Better light to those voters? I have a hard time
Speaker 3: seeing it.
Speaker 1: I think that you'll have a lot of people, You
Speaker 1: may have a lot of people who are in the
Speaker 1: lower tier of the ladder of the economic ladder who
Speaker 1: feel like, damn, he is like me. You know, I
Speaker 1: would not have I would get screwed to. Maybe there
Speaker 1: is even some black voters or some Hispanic voters who
Speaker 1: feel this way, that they have been on the wrong
Speaker 1: side of the law and unfairly prosecuted. But I find
Speaker 1: it to be a bit of a pripe pipe dream.
Speaker 1: I imagine this doesn't help him substantially. And if you
Speaker 1: look at all the polls that show a tight race
Speaker 1: between Biden and Trump, the biggest thing to remember is
Speaker 1: that both have one hundred percent aim I be there's
Speaker 1: not a single person's country who doesn't know who Joe
Speaker 1: Biden or Donald Trump bart are. And if they do,
Speaker 1: I wish I was then because they are living a
Speaker 1: very happy life.
Speaker 3: But if you don't, everyone else knows who they are.
Speaker 3: And they both are pulling generally.
Speaker 1: Under forty five percent, which is if you're in campaign world,
Speaker 1: if it incumbent's pulling under forty five percent, you're like, oh,
Speaker 1: this is great because there's a lot of uncertainty with
Speaker 1: the electorate. That's where the election is to side. And
Speaker 1: this uncertainty who knows Biden, who knows Trump? They don't
Speaker 1: like either one of them, which is probably between fifteen
Speaker 1: and twenty percent of the country. And it's ultimately what
Speaker 1: coin losses they flipped is that I trust Trump to
Speaker 1: fix the economy. He was not that bad of a present.
Speaker 1: Times were better, you know, four years ago? Or is
Speaker 1: the people like Trump is an unserious person. He's deranged.
Speaker 1: He's talking about things like January sixth again, and this
Speaker 1: is not who I want representing me in the country.
Speaker 1: That's really where the dividing line is. And also there'll
Speaker 1: be two issues which will be I'm sure abortion is
Speaker 1: going to be a huge issue and also the January
Speaker 1: sixth stuff. So we'll see which play a heavier hand
Speaker 1: and move people's minds. But that's really the biggest question
Speaker 1: right now, because if it's Trump versus Biden, there will
Speaker 1: be no voter who's learning new information. It's just a
Speaker 1: matter of the people who like dislike them both. You know,
Speaker 1: who do they show for. And it's also among the
Speaker 1: base of whom I'm more inspired vote for. I think
Speaker 1: Trump will probably win that battle as far as intensity goes,
Speaker 1: but there'll be a lot of Republicans. Probably the New
Speaker 1: York Times website at six percent of the Republican electorate
Speaker 1: who said they would not vote for him and in general,
Speaker 1: so there'll be a substantially the voting third party voting
Speaker 1: for Biden, and who knows.
Speaker 3: Maybe we'll get into a twenty sixteenth.
Speaker 1: Case where there'll be a third party candidate who eats
Speaker 1: up three percent of the election and throws the election
Speaker 1: either which way happened twice in the last twenty year
Speaker 1: or so, it wouldn't be shocking if it happened.
Speaker 3: A third time.
Speaker 2: Ryan Goraduski, everybody subscribe to the National Populist newsletter on substack,
Speaker 2: and he will be bringing you all these insights, and
Speaker 2: you can also probably email him and yell at him
Speaker 2: there for not being sufficiently supportive of Donald Trump as
Speaker 2: the nut. Anyway, Ran, thank you very much right out.
Speaker 2: I appreciate it.
Speaker 3: Sacking Bye,