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Speaker 2: Hello, everybody, Welcome into the cycle.
Speaker 3: I am Ryan Warmley, joined as always but not last
Speaker 3: week by Mike Mayor. I am back after my week
Speaker 3: off Mayor. As you know, I was traveling first some
Speaker 3: family stuff, so I appreciate you stepping into the host
Speaker 3: chair for me, And of course we're bringing on Kelly
Speaker 3: in my stead, who is way smarter about Fantasy Baseball
Speaker 3: than I will ever be.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 5: Well, I am happy to have you back because you're
Speaker 5: a better host than I will ever be, So I'm
Speaker 5: sure the audience will agree that they're happy to have
Speaker 5: you back as a host, and they don't have to
Speaker 5: hear me try my best anymore.
Speaker 3: I will say as I was just trying to be
Speaker 3: deferential to Kelly, not trying. I genuinely believe she's very,
Speaker 3: very smart. Obviously in the only league she and I
Speaker 3: are in together, which is the Roto League, Dan Harris's league,
Speaker 3: I currently am sitting on eighty two points. She is
Speaker 3: currently sitting, I believe on the thirty six points.
Speaker 2: Mayor where are you?
Speaker 5: I was gonna say, if you scrolling the bottle, you'll
Speaker 5: see me. That team might be the worst team I've
Speaker 5: ever had.
Speaker 6: I don't know.
Speaker 5: And I look at the roster and I'm like, this
Speaker 5: roster isn't bad. And I've already my hitting was so
Speaker 5: bad that I had like pitching surplus, and I already
Speaker 5: flipped a bunch of that pitching for hitting, and now
Speaker 5: my hitting and pitching are both bad, and I'm just like,
Speaker 5: it's unbelievably like I'm anxious about how bad that team is.
Speaker 2: It's pretty poor.
Speaker 3: I'm making a good first impression my first year in
Speaker 3: that league, and it's nice to see you sitting there
Speaker 3: at the bottom. Yeah, we're gonna dive into the show
Speaker 3: at some point. We're gonna do a little segment here
Speaker 3: and round in the bases where and I like to
Speaker 3: do this whenever I'm not only out, you know, missing
Speaker 3: a week, but like truly i'm like pretty much off
Speaker 3: the gride and not watching baseball for a few days.
Speaker 3: I like to come back and have you kind of
Speaker 3: fill me in on what I missed over the last week.
Speaker 3: I did attend a couple of baseball games in Baltimore
Speaker 3: with my family, So those were the only games that
Speaker 3: I watched pretty much in the last week while I
Speaker 3: was while I was out and about. So we will
Speaker 3: get into that a little bit later on in the segment.
Speaker 2: We're gonna start off.
Speaker 3: And round of the bases kind of just from some
Speaker 3: more immediate news, which was yesterday as I was putting
Speaker 3: this together, we had not one, but two very good
Speaker 3: starting pitchers get hurt. I kind of labeled the segment
Speaker 3: just more injured pitchers, because it feels like it's been
Speaker 3: never ending for a lot of this season. Kind of
Speaker 3: different circumstances for these two. Was Hunter Green, of course,
Speaker 3: and Dylan He's pitched very well, and then he came
Speaker 3: out and then I was seeing on Twitter, you know,
Speaker 3: as you know, an apparent injury kind of after the
Speaker 3: no hitter was broken up. I didn't see a follow
Speaker 3: up to that. So if there is kind of additional
Speaker 3: news about what exactly that was, Mary, you can fill
Speaker 3: us in.
Speaker 2: Hunter Green. It was a groin issue.
Speaker 3: He left after three very strong innings on Wednesday night,
Speaker 3: and obviously Green is somebody we have talked about a lot.
Speaker 3: I planted a flag on him as being a great
Speaker 3: value this year. He looked like the best call I made,
Speaker 3: and all of Spring Trading was being very in on him.
Speaker 3: You were still a little hesitant because of the injury concerned,
Speaker 3: of course, a growing issue, maybe not the type of
Speaker 3: injury you were thinking about. Let's start with Green because
Speaker 3: I think kind of the more concerning given the way
Speaker 3: he left the game and just how good he's been
Speaker 3: so far this year, do you I mean, we just
Speaker 3: saw Cole Reagan's have a groin issue and come back
Speaker 3: and look very good against the White Sox. So it's
Speaker 3: not like this is a death Noell. But what was
Speaker 3: your kind of reaction watching what happened to Green?
Speaker 5: Well, my first reaction was I just saw it come across.
Speaker 5: He left with an injury, and I was like, oh God,
Speaker 5: like this is what we were worried about. You know,
Speaker 5: he's sitting there throwing a hundred and one hundred two
Speaker 5: and it finally happened his arm off, and then you
Speaker 5: kind of see that it's a groin injury and injury
Speaker 5: and you're like, all right, well, at least it's not
Speaker 5: his right arm. You know, they could be you know,
Speaker 5: I would prefer like just cramps or something, but if
Speaker 5: it has to be an injury, like you said, like
Speaker 5: coul Reagan's just came back from a groin injury.
Speaker 6: It doesn't sound like they're too concerned about it. He
Speaker 6: was just.
Speaker 5: Warming up and I guess he threw two warm up
Speaker 5: pitches and was like basically just called out the trainers
Speaker 5: and was like, I don't feel right. You know, he
Speaker 5: felt a little tight on his first warm up throw,
Speaker 5: which I saw someone say that, like his first warm
Speaker 5: up throw was always like on the softer side, and
Speaker 5: like the second warm up throw is when he like
Speaker 5: starts throwing a little bit harder, and his second warm
Speaker 5: up throw was also soft. And then I think that's
Speaker 5: like when the catcher, one of the trainers, was like okay,
Speaker 5: like something's wrong here, and he immediately like called him
Speaker 5: out as we're recording this here today on Thursday. I
Speaker 5: believe he's getting an MRI today to see if there's,
Speaker 5: you know, what the extent of the damage is. He
Speaker 5: said he wasn't really sure. He didn't have like injury
Speaker 5: like this before. He didn't really know what to expect,
Speaker 5: and then the manager turned Francona didn't expect bad news.
Speaker 5: So it sounds like fingers crossed, but they're optimistic it's
Speaker 5: not a major issue there.
Speaker 3: Obviously, since we, you know, only record this show once
Speaker 3: a week, we won't be able to be on top
Speaker 3: of the twist and turns. Everybody should check out leading
Speaker 3: off live every day, so hopefully they can be more
Speaker 3: immediate with their reactions whenever we get kind of fallout
Speaker 3: from whatever that MRI ends up showing. Hunter Green obviously
Speaker 3: been you know, one of, if not the best pitcher
Speaker 3: in baseball this season, so we will certainly be keeping
Speaker 3: a very close eye on that. He's actually been a
Speaker 3: real reason why I'm doing well in that league. We
Speaker 3: were talking about where I'm in Darren Harris's league, So
Speaker 3: I'm certainly hoping, and I know everybody is, that he
Speaker 3: ends up being okay.
Speaker 2: And then Dylan Cees.
Speaker 3: Was there a kind of a follow up to this
Speaker 3: that you saw this morning that I missed in terms
Speaker 3: of him leaving, Like I said, I know, it was
Speaker 3: kind of listed as like an apparent injury. He did
Speaker 3: pitch well and got deeper into the game than Green did.
Speaker 5: Yeah, there were two kind of follow ups, and one
Speaker 5: very concerning and the other one not concerning at all.
Speaker 5: So the first thing I saw come across was that
Speaker 5: it was a forearm injury. And then you know, as
Speaker 5: I always say, your forearm is connected to your Tommy
Speaker 5: John and so that's not great. But then it turned
Speaker 5: out to it was just cramps. So they're like, not
Speaker 5: that worried, just a forearm cramp. Obviously you don't want
Speaker 5: anything happening to that forearm. You're hoping that's not like
Speaker 5: assigned by anything else. But if you have to leave
Speaker 5: with an injury, cramps are the one that you want
Speaker 5: to leave with because if it's just like a hydration
Speaker 5: temporary issue, unless you have like chronic cramps, like that's
Speaker 5: best case scenario. So it sounds like they're gonna play
Speaker 5: it by year. Like the next couple of days, he
Speaker 5: how a bullpen goes and like he should be fine.
Speaker 6: Maybe what do you.
Speaker 3: Make of season in general, just while we're on the topic,
Speaker 3: if we're if we're largely unconcerned about, you know, the
Speaker 3: injury stuff. He hasn't been, you know, the type of
Speaker 3: guy you were hoping you were drafting when you got him.
Speaker 3: In fact, this was you know, this or that early
Speaker 3: start against Cleveland are pretty clearly his two best starts
Speaker 3: of the season. Every other start has been between mediocre
Speaker 3: to downright bad. You know, he's sitting here, is eras
Speaker 3: four ninety.
Speaker 2: One, his whips won forty one.
Speaker 3: You know, he's he's striking out, you know, more than
Speaker 3: a batter and inning.
Speaker 2: So you are still getting that which you knew you
Speaker 2: were getting from him.
Speaker 3: But nothing else really looks all that, you know, appealing
Speaker 3: in terms of what we've actually seen. But he was
Speaker 3: very good obviously against the Yankees in New York last
Speaker 3: night prior to this cramp issue. So do you see
Speaker 3: that as like a sign of a turnaround and he's
Speaker 3: kind of getting it all back together. Are you largely
Speaker 3: concerned long term from the on field performance perspective?
Speaker 6: I think this is part of just the Dylan cease experience.
Speaker 5: I think it's just a roller coroaster and you're gonna
Speaker 5: I wrote him up a couple of weeks ago as
Speaker 5: a buy low, and I just think, like, you're gonna
Speaker 5: have some ups, you're gonna have some downs, and when
Speaker 5: the dust settles, you're gonna have a mid threes ZRA
Speaker 5: and two undred plus strikeouts as long as it stays healthy.
Speaker 5: And so I think that's what's gonna happen. Agin Even
Speaker 5: right now is is Eri is sitting at four nine one,
Speaker 5: not great, but all his expected his FIP is three
Speaker 5: point three four. That's lower than last year's ra of
Speaker 5: three point four to seven. X FIP three seven seven,
Speaker 5: sierra three six five x e A four point zero two.
Speaker 5: So all of those number expected numbers significally better. Like
Speaker 5: you said, strikeout rate still pretty similar, whip obviously much
Speaker 5: higher than you want it to be.
Speaker 6: But I think or a long haul he should be fine.
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Speaker 3: It's you know, coming off the you know, being off
Speaker 3: for a week, you build up your your ad read ability,
Speaker 3: and you know, I was practicing up in the in
Speaker 3: the off season speak.
Speaker 5: I didn't really have that many to read, so I
Speaker 5: was I was, you know, opening up the sheet expecting
Speaker 5: a ton of promos.
Speaker 6: I only had like one or two to do, and
Speaker 6: I was like, this is cake.
Speaker 3: Where must to do A lot Kisa Trex is an
Speaker 3: interesting one because like two thirds of the read is
Speaker 3: the disclaimer, so it's a lot too. It's a lot
Speaker 3: to read through, but we love Kaisa Treks. Here, let's
Speaker 3: go to Trent Grisham, who, you know, kind of in
Speaker 3: the way we often talk about these players. I wrote
Speaker 3: in the outline, is Trank Grisham the best hitter in baseball?
Speaker 3: Clearly that's not true, but he continues to be very
Speaker 3: very good this year. And I thought it was really
Speaker 3: notable because I, you know, I was looking through, you know,
Speaker 3: hit another home run last night. I'm like, you know,
Speaker 3: he's been so good, he must be rostered pretty much everywhere,
Speaker 3: and every kind of gets it. He's fifty percent rostered
Speaker 3: in CBS, under thirty percent in both ESPN and Yahoo.
Speaker 3: His triple slash line is two ninety two three seventy
Speaker 3: six six forty. That's an ops over one thousand. He
Speaker 3: has ten home runs already this season, only nineteen strike
Speaker 3: cuts on the season, and his stat cast is very
Speaker 3: very red. You know, some of the kind of standouts
Speaker 3: in there. His ex woba's ninety third percentiles, his expected slugging,
Speaker 3: his ninety fourth percentile. He's in the eighties for exit velocity,
Speaker 3: barrel rate, seventy eighth percentile hard hit rate. You know,
Speaker 3: his chase rate is only you know, ninety three percentile,
Speaker 3: so he's not chasing the balls with rates pretty low too. Like,
Speaker 3: it's just looked very, very good in all respects. He
Speaker 3: already has more home runs than he did all of
Speaker 3: last season the last two years. Is batting average is
Speaker 3: blow the Mendoza line. So on the one hand, it
Speaker 3: looks like a fluke, like, you know, it's not in
Speaker 3: line Sorr on stack cast. It's only showing the last
Speaker 3: two but yeah, I didn't have the previous seasons up too.
Speaker 3: But the expected data is saying this looks legitimate at
Speaker 3: least so far. So there could still be some noise
Speaker 3: in there, but it doesn't look that fluky.
Speaker 2: What we've seen to date.
Speaker 3: So I ask you this, He's twenty eight years old,
Speaker 3: he's got the awesome ballpark he's playing in this season.
Speaker 3: Is this a legitimate breakout that you expect to see
Speaker 3: continue on some level the rest of the way, or
Speaker 3: are you still viewing this within the prism of it's
Speaker 3: early and this is not the Trent Grisham we should
Speaker 3: expect going forward.
Speaker 5: I think it's probably somewhere in the middle. I don't
Speaker 5: think we're going to see this level of Trent Grisham
Speaker 5: the rest of the season. But I also think we're
Speaker 5: not going to see the bad, you know version either.
Speaker 5: I think he's kind of settling in. Like you said,
Speaker 5: the biggest factor here is that ballpark. You know, he's
Speaker 5: pulling the ball for power, and if you can do
Speaker 5: that even a little bit in Yankee Stadium, you're gonna
Speaker 5: have a million home runs. You wrote in the sheet,
Speaker 5: is Trent Grisham the best hitter in baseball? I would
Speaker 5: ask you a different question. Is Trent Grisham this year
Speaker 5: who we were hoping Cody Bellinger was going to be?
Speaker 5: Because this is what everyone was hoping the Cody Bellinger
Speaker 5: season the Kastadium was gonna look like, and it looked
Speaker 5: like it might be. Trent Grisham is the one taking
Speaker 5: advantage of it. There was one stat that I thought
Speaker 5: was funny when kind of like looking at this, so
Speaker 5: he has ten home runs, do you know without looking
Speaker 5: how many doubles he has?
Speaker 2: No, I don't have that pulled up, and I don't know.
Speaker 5: Okay, one though, granted that's the worst ballpark four doubles,
Speaker 5: or at least like a bottom five ballpark for doubles.
Speaker 5: But even last year he had nine home runs and
Speaker 5: eight doubles. So it's just kind of funny that, like
Speaker 5: when he is hitting for power, he's not like putting
Speaker 5: it in the gap, He's just putting it over that
Speaker 5: red field fence.
Speaker 3: I do think it's notable that not only is he
Speaker 3: hitting the ball in the air more than he has
Speaker 3: it any other year of his career, he's also pulling
Speaker 3: the ball in the air more than any other year
Speaker 3: in his career. His pull air percentage twenty five point
Speaker 3: seven percent last year is the second highest at twenty percent,
Speaker 3: So that's a pretty sizable jump year to.
Speaker 2: Year from what was already career high last year.
Speaker 3: So he is taking full advantage of the stadium that
Speaker 3: he's in. I really liked that comp of what we
Speaker 3: were hoping Bellinger would be. Yeah, I mean, like I'm
Speaker 3: not saying, go get rid of everything you had to
Speaker 3: go acquire Trent Grisham, but I think it's legitimate enough that,
Speaker 3: like he certainly is better than we expected he was
Speaker 3: going to be before the start of the season. I
Speaker 3: mean the other thing too, really and like you said,
Speaker 3: kind of the biggest factor is the ballpark. The other
Speaker 3: big factor is the strikeouts.
Speaker 2: And I'm not sure.
Speaker 3: If you can weigh in on I actually kind of forget,
Speaker 3: like about how long strikeout rates. You feel like they
Speaker 3: tend to normalize for hitters in a new season, But
Speaker 3: every other year in his career it was in the twenties.
Speaker 3: In the last three years it was twenty eight twenty
Speaker 3: seven to twenty seven percent strikeout rate this year is
Speaker 3: his career low. It's eighteen point eight percent. That is
Speaker 3: a very very drastic drop. So he's just putting the
Speaker 3: ball and play more and also taking advantage by pulling
Speaker 3: the ball in the air when he's doing it. So
Speaker 3: it all, you know, the highest barrel rate going along
Speaker 3: with that. Like I said, so we're one hundred played
Speaker 3: appearances in, it's not nothing, even though there's still a
Speaker 3: long way to go.
Speaker 6: So yeah, And I.
Speaker 5: Would also say it's it's not just that he's not
Speaker 5: striking out, because sometimes you'll see a player like drastically
Speaker 5: cut down on their strikeout rate, and there are like
Speaker 5: gibbs or takes in other areas, especially like you'll see
Speaker 5: like a walk percentage will also drips substantially because they're
Speaker 5: just like swinging earlier in the count and they're not
Speaker 5: you know, they're not taking pitches, they're just making contact
Speaker 5: again on base. His walk rate is staying the same,
Speaker 5: like last year's ten point five percent, this year's ten
Speaker 5: point nine percent, and in the past it's been in
Speaker 5: that ten percent range except for twenty twenty three when
Speaker 5: it was up to thirteen point five. But the fact
Speaker 5: that he's still walking as much and has cut his
Speaker 5: strikeout rate by ten percent is pretty intriguing.
Speaker 3: He's been sitting there available in one of our head
Speaker 3: to head points leagues, Deep Keeper League, pretty much the
Speaker 3: entire year, and I finally just picked him up last night.
Speaker 3: I was like, I don't you know, I'm I'm going
Speaker 3: on the show to say he should be rostered in
Speaker 3: more leagues, So let me pick him up in the
Speaker 3: lead where he's available. And I just think everybody's kind
Speaker 3: of been waiting for the other shoot to drop, but
Speaker 3: I'm it will to a degree, but I don't know
Speaker 3: what that degree is going to be. I want to
Speaker 3: ask about another player not on the same level of
Speaker 3: Grisham is Jackson Holiday arriving. This is somebody that could
Speaker 3: not have had more hype going into last season as
Speaker 3: a guy who was so recently out of high school
Speaker 3: and yet still the number one overall prospect in baseball.
Speaker 3: He was going on to a team that had all
Speaker 3: these great young talent. He was kind of that final
Speaker 3: piece of this crown jewel of a farm system, and
Speaker 3: he was awful. He was so unplayable that he got
Speaker 3: like two weeks in the majors. They sent him back down.
Speaker 3: He was a little bit better later in the year,
Speaker 3: but still not this elite hitter. We've talked a lot
Speaker 3: on the show about how top prospects are taking longer
Speaker 3: than ever to really adjust to the gap between minor
Speaker 3: league pitching and major league pitching. But Holiday has been
Speaker 3: good as of late. They just moved him today out
Speaker 3: of This is not a permanent move. I think they
Speaker 3: were just kind of shaking things up because the whole
Speaker 3: team has struggled. But today he was batting second in
Speaker 3: the order. It's the first time they finally kind of
Speaker 3: moved him up and said he's gotten comfortable, let's let's
Speaker 3: stop putting him in that like six to eight range.
Speaker 3: And the last eleven games they are playing right now,
Speaker 3: So this is not including today, although I know he
Speaker 3: did get on base at least once today already. But
Speaker 3: the last eleven games before Thursday, he's bat eating three
Speaker 3: eighty seven, four fifty seven on base five eighty one
Speaker 3: selecon percentage. That is a ops over one thousand. He's
Speaker 3: still not really running when he gets on His sprint
Speaker 3: speed is eighty ninth percentile, so he certainly has a speed.
Speaker 3: I wish he would steal more bases when he gets
Speaker 3: on base, because I thought that was an area he
Speaker 3: could contribute, you know, even when he was in the
Speaker 3: minor leagues and I was looking at, like, what's he
Speaker 3: gonna be when he gets up there. The other thing
Speaker 3: I thought was interesting that I put in the sheet
Speaker 3: is that his barrel rate and hard hit rate are
Speaker 3: both actually down compared to last year. But like like
Speaker 3: Trent Grisham, Jackson Holliday is striking out a lot less
Speaker 3: than he was last year too, so he's still crazy young.
Speaker 3: It's a position that's largely uninspiring, so getting a second
Speaker 3: basement is appealing if he really is breaking out. Do
Speaker 3: you think from what we've seen from Jackson Hill that
Speaker 3: he is taking that next step. I'm not going to
Speaker 3: call him a superstar yet. This isn't like, you know,
Speaker 3: the leap in all capital letters, But is it a leap?
Speaker 6: I think it is.
Speaker 5: I think I think you're seeing a young hitter adjusting
Speaker 5: to life in the major leagues, which you know he's
Speaker 5: going to have to do. If based on what you said,
Speaker 5: you know, and what we saw for his like initial
Speaker 5: you know, debut, it was bad as bad as it
Speaker 5: could be, and so I think he's making you know,
Speaker 5: proactive changes, you know, cutting down a strikeout rate in
Speaker 5: a meaningful way if that means you know, for the
Speaker 5: for the time being, you know, not swinging out of
Speaker 5: your shoes, and you know that'll like you know kind
Speaker 5: of like cut down on some of your swing speed
Speaker 5: and your you know, potentially your bower rate and just
Speaker 5: focusing more on like just like you know, let me
Speaker 5: make as solid contact as I can and just like
Speaker 5: let the bat do the work like until you kind
Speaker 5: of like really like lock in and have that experience.
Speaker 5: Maybe that's what you need to do. And so obviously
Speaker 5: over the last week and a half we're seeing some
Speaker 5: really tangible changes there and it's it's the kind of
Speaker 5: thing where you know, if how to put it, it's
Speaker 5: just like this is what you want to see from
Speaker 5: a young hitters, especially, like you don't want to see
Speaker 5: like the same struggles and like you want to see
Speaker 5: like changes. And so the fact that we're seeing, you know,
Speaker 5: cutting down a strike cut right, he's still walking. I'm
Speaker 5: not really as concerned about the running as you are,
Speaker 5: you know, hopefully it's just you know, you don't.
Speaker 6: Want to think it's like the manager putting it on
Speaker 6: the red light.
Speaker 5: But like maybe it's just like, look, don't worry about
Speaker 5: like running and stealing bases, just like focus on your
Speaker 5: hitting for right now, Like we will steal bases eventually,
Speaker 5: but like, don't worry about that. And his his batting
Speaker 5: average now is two sixty three and it's expected bating
Speaker 5: average to sixty two, so it's right there.
Speaker 6: It's kind of an earned.
Speaker 5: Batting average with like a league average babbit. And his
Speaker 5: swinging strike rate is way down to eight point one
Speaker 5: percent from thirteen over thirteen percent last year.
Speaker 3: I wouldn't have worried about the lack of running. Homarg
Speaker 3: is confused, like there's something I expected. I thought, like
Speaker 3: he might struggle to contribute in power categories when he
Speaker 3: first got to the big leagues as a twenty year old.
Speaker 3: But I thought when he got on base, we would
Speaker 3: see him running it, and I've just some kind of
Speaker 3: surprised that he's not. But yeah, where would you rank
Speaker 3: him amongst second basemen the rest of the season.
Speaker 6: That's a good question.
Speaker 5: Like I said in the beginning of the season, I
Speaker 5: think I'll put up my rankings while I'm talking, But
Speaker 5: I like.
Speaker 3: Is he somebody that you're comfortable with if he is
Speaker 3: your starting second basement or would you still prefer he's
Speaker 3: more of like your middle infielder.
Speaker 6: I would prefer like a middle infielder right now.
Speaker 5: Like I think he's going to be a better major
Speaker 5: league player than he is for fantasy in the short term.
Speaker 5: I think in the long term he will be good.
Speaker 5: I just think we're probably like a year early, and
Speaker 5: I think maybe starting next year is when you know
Speaker 5: he'll probably be valuable in fantasy. I have him, I
Speaker 5: have him pretty love, so I still have to move
Speaker 5: him up. I have an update of my rankings. I've
Speaker 5: him outside the top thirty. I probably need to move
Speaker 5: him up to like low twenties. I would say like,
Speaker 5: I'll move him ahead of Xander Bogart's at that spot
Speaker 5: because you know, I think Xander Brogratz has a pretty
Speaker 5: low ceiling at this point, so I'll move him up
Speaker 5: to like twenty one, maybe like like nineteen head of
Speaker 5: Chase my draft, who I like. But I think, you
Speaker 5: know again, Holiday has a higher season.
Speaker 3: I didn't sit down and kind of like lay out
Speaker 3: all my rankings. My initial thought was in the like
Speaker 3: mid teens range. I think I'm still higher than you
Speaker 3: on what Because we have seen this before from these
Speaker 3: Oriols prospects. A lot of them struggled off the bat
Speaker 3: and then once they figured it out, they basically just
Speaker 3: went nuclear.
Speaker 2: So that's not a guarantee that will also happen with Holiday.
Speaker 2: The other thing, too, is a lot of it.
Speaker 3: His fans have been complaining a lot about just the
Speaker 3: approach from the team has been really poor, Like I
Speaker 3: really want to see a shakeup on the coaching staff
Speaker 3: right now. Holiday is the one guy who seems to
Speaker 3: be making adjustments. His swing looks shorter, he's dropped a
Speaker 3: leg kick. I don't think it's any coincidence that he
Speaker 3: has a dad who was an All Star hitter, for
Speaker 3: many years in the major league level, who takes a
Speaker 3: very prevalent role in his career and can maybe help
Speaker 3: them find those adjustments that I think the coaching staff
Speaker 3: is willing to do with some of the other players.
Speaker 2: So I'm pretty optimistic.
Speaker 3: I mean, I'm not saying he's a top twelve second basement,
Speaker 3: but I'm pretty optimistic about Holiday going for the rest
Speaker 3: of the way. The other one other thing I'll mention
Speaker 3: on him, stat cast really hates his fielding. It's got
Speaker 3: him like fifth percentile and range. That's extremely small sample
Speaker 3: size for a metric like that, but I just wanted
Speaker 3: to point out that from the eye test watching him,
Speaker 3: he looks night and day in the field. Compared to
Speaker 3: the last year, he looks so much more comfortable at second.
Speaker 3: He's made very strong plays on a number of occasions.
Speaker 3: I think he is taking a step forward defensively, which
Speaker 3: you would hope would keep him in the lineup more often.
Speaker 3: Brandon Hyde, I hate spatting him against lefties.
Speaker 6: I don't.
Speaker 2: I think it's really dumb.
Speaker 3: He needs to figure it out against lefties, and he's
Speaker 3: gotten hits against him before. I think he's fine, So
Speaker 3: I really hope he Can three.
Speaker 6: Of the last four games against lefties, has been on
Speaker 6: the bench three last.
Speaker 3: Four, and it'll it'll be coming off like a multi
Speaker 3: hit day, and it's like, just let the kid get
Speaker 3: in rid of them. I mean, I've said this on
Speaker 3: a hundred times, like Brandon Hyde needs to get fired yesterday.
Speaker 3: I think he's in over his head and I think
Speaker 3: players like Jackson Holiday suffer because of his his machinations.
Speaker 3: All right, let's go to the last second here on
Speaker 3: round in the bases. And like I said at the
Speaker 3: top of the show, there is something I just like
Speaker 3: to do when I've been gone and not able to
Speaker 3: watch really any baseball for several days.
Speaker 2: What did I.
Speaker 3: Miss when I was out? And I will let you
Speaker 3: teach me what it is that that I missed here?
Speaker 3: So what was important? What are the headlines that I
Speaker 3: need to know from the last week.
Speaker 5: Well you're never gonna believe this, but Mike Trot got hurt.
Speaker 3: This I did see, And of course my immediate thought was,
Speaker 3: how does Mayor feel about it?
Speaker 5: Yeah, as someone who are rosters them everywhere, because you know,
Speaker 5: if you're going to take a risk, take a risk everywhere.
Speaker 5: Is it one of those things where they said they
Speaker 5: were not concerned about it, and then he went on
Speaker 5: the IL and they're still saying they're not concerned about it.
Speaker 5: But like I said last week when Kelly and I
Speaker 5: were talking about it, seen this movie before, you know,
Speaker 5: I've seen them not be concerned about Mike drout injuries,
Speaker 5: and then I've seen him just not.
Speaker 6: Play the rest of the season. So we'll see.
Speaker 5: Hopefully he's back soon, hopefully for my sake and for
Speaker 5: baseball sake, cause I think he's still a fun player.
Speaker 5: Spencer Strider has been out for a while for the
Speaker 5: hamstring injury.
Speaker 3: But let me ask you this quickly on Trout because
Speaker 3: I know you guys have talked about him like when
Speaker 3: I was gone, and they've talked about leading off. Like
Speaker 3: I'm not saying we need to believe everything. I want
Speaker 3: to ask you this, as somebody who has a lot
Speaker 3: of him, when he comes back off the IL, will
Speaker 3: you look to trade him then and say he's back?
Speaker 3: You know, I'm going to try and sell high on
Speaker 3: the momentum of coming off the IL and just get
Speaker 3: something form while I can, or are you're gonna hold
Speaker 3: on and say, you know, I don't think he's going
Speaker 3: to get hurt again this year, and I'm kind of
Speaker 3: riding this thing until the last possible second.
Speaker 5: I'm not going to trade him right away. I'm going
Speaker 5: to hold him and see if I can, you know,
Speaker 5: recoup my investment, if that makes sense. But I don't
Speaker 5: think i'd be selling high enough. Not that I like
Speaker 5: spent a lot of draft capital on him, because he
Speaker 5: was going like ninth round around when I got him,
Speaker 5: or you know, like in the teens in you know,
Speaker 5: salary cap auction leagues. But I don't think like he
Speaker 5: has like a bunch of home runs, batting average is low,
Speaker 5: and he already has that, like you know, he's becoming
Speaker 5: fresh off an injury, and so I don't think anyone's
Speaker 5: gonna want to pay the price that I would want
Speaker 5: for Mike Trout because they think they're buying low. Like
Speaker 5: here's you know, the guy batting below two hundred. He's
Speaker 5: very injury prone coming off an injury. I don't think
Speaker 5: it's the right time to sell him now. If he
Speaker 5: comes off and he's like really hot for three weeks,
Speaker 5: it's gonna be tough for me because I'm gonna want
Speaker 5: to sell high. But I'm also going to be like, look,
Speaker 5: this is what I was hoping for, and I don't
Speaker 5: want to give up on this, but I'm always gonna
Speaker 5: have in the back of my mind like he's.
Speaker 6: Gonna get hurt.
Speaker 5: So it might just be like league by league, depending
Speaker 5: on what my roster looks like. But I wouldn't sell
Speaker 5: him right away because I don't think you're going to
Speaker 5: get any kind of value for your better offter just
Speaker 5: holding on.
Speaker 2: Okay, all right, what else said?
Speaker 5: I Miss Spencer Stryder's been out for a while, you know,
Speaker 5: pretty disappointing. He came back very early and then much
Speaker 5: earlier than a lot of people anticipated, but then he
Speaker 5: had a hamstering injury and he's been on the shelf.
Speaker 5: But he and as of like last week, there were
Speaker 5: like no plans for him to like start throwing. And
Speaker 5: then finally yesterday Wednesday, he started throwing off a mound
Speaker 5: and they were going to wait to see how he
Speaker 5: felt today to determine next steps. But it sounds like
Speaker 5: he could be beginning or rehab assignment, like hopefully soon,
Speaker 5: so we could potentially be getting Spencer Strider back, which
Speaker 5: you know, again in that league, in that league we're
Speaker 5: in where I'm really bad. I have Mike Drought and
Speaker 5: Spencer Strider, so I would love to have both of
Speaker 5: them back and Acuna too, right, I do have Acunya. Yeah,
Speaker 5: I was hoping he'll be back by now too, or
Speaker 5: at least like on a rehab assignment, but that's been slower.
Speaker 7: You know.
Speaker 5: I took a lot of risks in that league, and
Speaker 5: so far none of them have paid off. And I
Speaker 5: have a bunch of other players like Price, Harper like not,
Speaker 5: you know, producing up to like certain expectations. So it's
Speaker 5: even the players I do have are not really performing
Speaker 5: as much as I would hope, or even Mookie Bets.
Speaker 5: Speaking of pitcher injuries, Joe Ryan missed a start, but
Speaker 5: apparently it's just sick and should be able to make
Speaker 5: his next start. You know, you don't love a picture
Speaker 5: being sick enough to miss a start, but better that.
Speaker 6: Than an injury.
Speaker 5: So hopefully his strength comes back and he's feeling all
Speaker 5: right for his next start. We talked a little bit
Speaker 5: last week about Lucas Giolito, who, in his first start
Speaker 5: in like over a year, looked really good.
Speaker 6: I guess almost two years.
Speaker 5: He he looked really good and flirted with like six
Speaker 5: shutout innings until he kind of got squeezed at one
Speaker 5: point and then he left like a change up, like
Speaker 5: an O two change up over the middle of the plate,
Speaker 5: got it for a home run. And then his second
Speaker 5: start just really really bad. And so I'm gonna cough
Speaker 5: but sorry, and so like there was some hope there,
Speaker 5: like okay, like this guy might be someone worth picking up.
Speaker 5: And second start not good at all, and so now
Speaker 5: I'm much less optimistic about Lucas gu little pretty concerned
Speaker 5: and uh yeah, so I wrote in the sheet good good,
Speaker 5: geal little bad Giulio. I was initially, you know, very intrigued,
Speaker 5: and now less so because it doesn't really have the
Speaker 5: stuff that he used to have. But like you know,
Speaker 5: I you know, he was like hiding the ball pretty
Speaker 5: well and like getting some whiffs, and I was like,
Speaker 5: all right, I can get down with this, but now,
Speaker 5: you know, not so good. Tony Gonsolin, on the on
Speaker 5: the other hand, has come off you know, the ilt
Speaker 5: and looked very good and pitching for the Dodgers that
Speaker 5: need pitching and have like, you know, one of the best.
Speaker 6: Offenses in baseball.
Speaker 5: He's also striking out a ton of people, which is
Speaker 5: not something he's always done, so that's very exciting. I
Speaker 5: added him before he came back, and I've been very
Speaker 5: fortunate to have him in my lineup, so that's that's good.
Speaker 5: And then I I paired two pictures together down here
Speaker 5: at the bottom, A J. Smith Shov and then Matt Liberator,
Speaker 5: who both might be breaking out, like they both you know,
Speaker 5: Smith jav Or flirted with a no hitter the other
Speaker 5: night I took, you know, he gave up his first
Speaker 5: hit in the eighth inning. Some of his suspective numbers
Speaker 5: are like not that exciting. And then Matt Liberator has
Speaker 5: been like solid all year and it's you know, I
Speaker 5: would kind of you know, I know you haven't watched
Speaker 5: them recently, but like kind of posed the question to you,
Speaker 5: like do you think because Smith Jobber has been around
Speaker 5: for little while, but he's still very young, and like,
Speaker 5: do we think these are like pictures breaking out or
Speaker 5: do we think this is kind of just like a
Speaker 5: a good start and like they're going to come back
Speaker 5: down to earth because they both have some decent prospect
Speaker 5: pedigree and like haven't lived up to it initially, but
Speaker 5: like maybe now they are.
Speaker 3: Yeah, Liberator, I think i'd be more. I have seen
Speaker 3: what he's been doing more in this last week, especially
Speaker 3: than smith Shover, so I feel less qualified. Like I
Speaker 3: didn't see the no hitter, you know, carried into the
Speaker 3: eighth inning for smith Shover, so I didn't watch that
Speaker 3: kind of see if he was looking different or anything.
Speaker 3: But Liberator like forty one innings, thirty three hits, six walks,
Speaker 3: his whips under one.
Speaker 2: His era is three oh seven.
Speaker 3: You know, he's got thirty eight strikeouts in those forty
Speaker 3: one innings. I always liked him as a prospect too,
Speaker 3: so it is kind of fun to see him put
Speaker 3: it together. If that is, in fact, what is happening.
Speaker 3: That's I I what is smith Shov's age.
Speaker 6: He's he is twenty two, twenty two, Okay.
Speaker 3: I was gonna say, I was gonna guess twenty three. Yeah,
Speaker 3: twenty two is so young that it would not at all.
Speaker 3: I mean, it shouldn't all surprise anybody if he is
Speaker 3: getting better still, right, I mean he's still so young. Yeah,
Speaker 3: he's he's led more people on than liber Tour. But yeah,
Speaker 3: the ear a three strikeout per inning, it's really mainly
Speaker 3: for him the last three starts. I guess it is,
Speaker 3: And there was that gap between the twelfth and the
Speaker 3: twenty ninth, so like these last two back to back
Speaker 3: are kind of the two like standout ones from him. Combined,
Speaker 3: it looks like what thirteen in a third innings, five hits,
Speaker 3: two runs, five walks, ten strikeouts.
Speaker 2: So yeah, I don't feel super qualified.
Speaker 3: To weigh and I'm like, oh, here's the reasons I
Speaker 3: think he is breaking out or whatever, but I think
Speaker 3: it's definitely encouraging, especially at that age.
Speaker 2: I'd be really interested in.
Speaker 3: Him anywhere I could have him, and like, you know,
Speaker 3: just I'm looking a fan tracks right now, sixty six
Speaker 3: percent rostered there. I would imagine that's a lower in
Speaker 3: some of those other places, So pretty acquirable, and I
Speaker 3: would be on board with hoping that this is him
Speaker 3: taking the step forward. Do you have like one that
Speaker 3: you think is more quote unquote legit than the.
Speaker 5: Other, probably Liberator. I think i'd like smith Stava. I've
Speaker 5: always liked Liberator. I think there are some concerning things
Speaker 5: in smith Stava's profile, and you can see that in
Speaker 5: some of the expected numbers, like his eras three. His
Speaker 5: fit is three point nine eight, so like a battle
Speaker 5: run higher his XCRA is five point three one, so
Speaker 5: XCRA really doesn't buy into what he's doing, and that
Speaker 5: kind of lines up more with the stackcast stuff, and
Speaker 5: you can see like walk percentage, you know, is twenty
Speaker 5: first percentile. He's allowing some hard contact like barrel rate
Speaker 5: and hard hit percentage like twelfth and twenty first percentile.
Speaker 5: So while there is some swing and myths, there's also
Speaker 5: some hard contact there, and so that's probably what XCRA
Speaker 5: doesn't like more than some of the other expected metrics.
Speaker 5: So there is some smoke and mirrors to what we're
Speaker 5: seeing there. Whereas I think Liberator, like you with someone
Speaker 5: I've I've liked for a long time, I feel like
Speaker 5: I've traded or traded him away or acquired him several
Speaker 5: times in multiple times the leagues over the years, and
Speaker 5: so excited to see that if he's he's finally putting
Speaker 5: it together and a lot of his underlying numbers are
Speaker 5: buying into what he's doing. Whereas like his era is
Speaker 5: right around the same as three point zero seven, and
Speaker 5: all of his fip X, FIP sierra at X zero
Speaker 5: well fip X, FIP and xc RA A are all
Speaker 5: below his current era, and the Sierra three point two
Speaker 5: two is just above it, and so the expected numbers
Speaker 5: are more so buying into what he's doing, which I
Speaker 5: think also matches what we're seeing with our eyes.
Speaker 3: I appreciate the crash course in what I missed the
Speaker 3: last week. Mayor, thank you as always for that. We'll
Speaker 3: go ahead and wrap up ran in the bases there.
Speaker 3: Be sure to check out the other parts of the cycle.
Speaker 3: We'll have our buys and Cells and Waiver Central coming
Speaker 3: up in part two, and then of course you've got
Speaker 3: our picture breakdown, some streaming options, our two start picture competition,
Speaker 3: all that in Part three four. Mayor, I'm Ryan warmly
Speaker 3: thanks everybody for tuning in. We'll see again on the
Speaker 3: next show. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy
Speaker 3: Baseball podcast. If you love the show, the best freeway
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