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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast Podcast, pot all.

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Speaker 2: Right, here we go.

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Speaker 1: Fifteen houndy twenty five, thirty thirty five, forty forty five fifty.

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Speaker 3: And the chick As Block the College Football World Standard.

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Speaker 3: Oh my goodness, Big stumbled and football. It's the lateral

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Speaker 3: turn a canter on the inside, don't you? The lad

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Speaker 3: table up?

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Speaker 2: The fail to night. It's not the side of the

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Speaker 2: dog in the fight. It's the side of the fight

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Speaker 2: in the roll. What's up the general Nation?

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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Big Bets on Campus Podcast presented by

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Speaker 1: Bett NNGM. This is the Week eight college football betting preview.

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Speaker 1: I'm stucky and joining me as always Colin Wilson. We

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Speaker 1: are celebrating our three hundredth episode of Big Bets on Campus,

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Speaker 1: so I want to take some time before we get

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Speaker 1: started to thank all of you, all the listeners who

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Speaker 1: make this show. Everyone's sweating at home each Saturday and

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Speaker 1: on weeknights like nation will be here soon to the angry, sad,

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Speaker 1: and elated voicemail callers. A hell of a ride. Here's

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Speaker 1: to three hundred more. The best way to celebrate is

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Speaker 1: going through this week eight card and betting plenty more trash,

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Speaker 1: which I'll get to But Colin, do you want to

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Speaker 1: have any words?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean thank you to everybody. Three hundred episodes.

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Speaker 2: I had no clue that we were this far. We

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Speaker 2: wouldn't be this far unless everybody downloaded, listened, left, or

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Speaker 2: review sucky and I wouldn't be in this position unless

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Speaker 2: you guys enjoyed the content that we bring. We wouldn't

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Speaker 2: be here unless Matt Mitchell was doing an amazing job

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Speaker 2: with the our intro music, our sound drops, our segments.

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Speaker 1: Let's go Mack.

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Speaker 2: I don't know if he's using AI or what the

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Speaker 2: hell he's doing, but he is such a big unseen

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Speaker 2: person on this podcast that has been with us since

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Speaker 2: day one, saying yeah, you're right. I can't wait till

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Speaker 2: we get an episode six hundred, episode one thousand. Maybe

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Speaker 2: we can challenge Monday Night Raw for like the longest

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Speaker 2: running show in the history of entertainment. We'll find out.

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Speaker 1: It's been a hell of a ride and let's have

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Speaker 1: a huge rest of the season. Rip Bahamas Ball won't

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Speaker 1: be played in the Bahamas. I know our producer, Matt

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Speaker 1: Mitchell is going to be upset about that.

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Speaker 2: It's not fair.

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Speaker 1: It's not fucking fair. Hopefully he's still with us after

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Speaker 1: this week because he is taking on a challenge. He

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Speaker 1: got an argument saying, what is the equivalent of oysters

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Speaker 1: to eating buffalo wings? Yeah, you can put down a

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Speaker 1: ton of oysters. So he's doing a challenge tomorrow. He's

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Speaker 1: got four y eight oysters. But you're not supposed to

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Speaker 1: eat oysters this fall. There's like a brain eating bacteria

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Speaker 1: that has been found in oysters. Kill you. So hopefully

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Speaker 1: still with us next week. Google it.

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Speaker 2: I saw like a month ago we're going to segue

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Speaker 2: from a brain eating oyster into a Wisconsin football handicap.

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Speaker 2: I mean it couldn't be a better segue. Yep.

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Speaker 1: So before we get to the Marquee games, we do

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Speaker 1: have two games in our look ahead or look.

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Speaker 2: Away Hangovers, Sleepers and the dreaded Sandwich spot. Is it

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Speaker 2: time to look ahead or look away? All right?

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Speaker 1: This is the section two where we look at the

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Speaker 1: schedule last week, next week and see if there's any

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Speaker 1: situational spots where a team might be get caught looking ahead,

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Speaker 1: or they might know if they're a big favorite, they

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Speaker 1: might hould their starters a little earlier could lead to

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Speaker 1: a second half play. There could be some let down potential.

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Speaker 1: These are college kids, after all, so we have two here.

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Speaker 1: Let's let's start with Wisconsin at Illinois. Wisconsin as Ohio

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Speaker 1: State on deck. They are of course coming off of

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Speaker 1: a loss. The big news with Wisconsin is, you know,

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Speaker 1: they were still trying to figure out the offense and

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Speaker 1: now they lost their starting quarterback to en Or Mordecai

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Speaker 1: and are turning to mister Locke the miss He's Mississippi

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Speaker 1: State transfer who got in the game last week against

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Speaker 1: Iowa and Braydon Lockey finished fifteen to thirty FO one

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Speaker 1: hundred and twenty two yards with an interception. They also

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Speaker 1: lost Malucy, their back, who was like Braydlen Allen's the

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Speaker 1: more talented running back, but with the offense that they play,

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Speaker 1: he was Brandon Allen struggles in pass protection, so you

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Speaker 1: really see a drop off there with now Allen getting

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Speaker 1: a majority of snaps in the backfield.

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Speaker 2: But in Illinois here is.

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Speaker 1: Coming off of a big win outright at Maryland. I

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Speaker 1: am officially the Bert Whisper Illinois. The side here definitely

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Speaker 1: going to be in my round. Robin, I missed the number.

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Speaker 1: You know, people hit this on open and it came

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Speaker 1: down past three. Would like to get three with Illinois,

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Speaker 1: but they got some offensive lineman back. I really like

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Speaker 1: their young backs, especially Fagan. I still think Illinois has

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Speaker 1: some value. Illinois some value over the past two weeks

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Speaker 1: in the market, and this Wisconsin team they have issues

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Speaker 1: on defense. You know, the offense was still trying to

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Speaker 1: find itself and now you lose your starting quarterback. I

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Speaker 1: think Illinois aside here. I think Bert gets it done

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Speaker 1: with a second straight cover after starting off the year

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Speaker 1: over against the spread. Any thoughts on your boy, Bert?

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Speaker 2: Oh, I wouldn't be able to love to get the

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Speaker 2: win here so him and Jim can run around and

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Speaker 2: hashtag karma with everything in the Wisconsin program.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, this is personal too for Big Bilama.

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Speaker 2: The number really confused me this week as I made

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Speaker 2: this minus seven with Tanner Mordecai in. There is the

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Speaker 2: really that big of a drop down to Braidon lock

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Speaker 2: because Tanner Mordechai numbers have been pretty bad and we

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Speaker 2: don't really know a lot from Braidon Locke sixteen to

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Speaker 2: thirty one interception, no big time throws. He's had four

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Speaker 2: turnover worthy plays already, so maybe the quarterback play is

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Speaker 2: about to get worse. He's a three star originally signed

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Speaker 2: to Misissippi State and hit the portal last January. Like

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Speaker 2: you mentioned, as bad as the Illinois defense has been

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Speaker 2: and allowing quality drives, the Wisconsin offense has been worse.

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Speaker 2: And it gets really hairy when you look at the

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Speaker 2: strength of schedule. Wisconsin one hundred and seventh strengths schedule,

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Speaker 2: Illinois top thirty. But I do see value on the over.

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Speaker 2: I see it continues to dip. I think that's Tander

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Speaker 2: Mordecai related forty one. I'm definitely buying this on the over,

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Speaker 2: both teams are twenty four to twenty five seconds per play.

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Speaker 2: Illinois is going to have some success running the ball themselves.

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Speaker 2: Now as I'm talking, Reggie Love has yet to be cleared.

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Speaker 2: But if he doesn't, Caden Vegan has been pretty good.

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Speaker 2: Two of the last three games. He's had eighty yards

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Speaker 2: of rushing. He's filled in great. I like Illinois too.

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Speaker 2: I think the number is way too short. I think

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Speaker 2: Illinois can get some points up on the board. You're right,

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Speaker 2: it is personally, aren't gonna be an knees taking. I

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Speaker 2: like the over in this game, especially at forty one.

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Speaker 1: I will have Illinois on the card in some fashion.

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Speaker 1: Other game we have here, Pitt travels down to Wake Forest,

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Speaker 1: Wake Forest off of it. I think it's a great

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Speaker 1: spot for Wake. I do like Wake Here. They are

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Speaker 1: coming off in just an embarrassing loss against Virginia Tech. Dave,

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Speaker 1: their head coach, Dave Foston, is one of the best

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Speaker 1: motivating head coaches in college football. Really laid into the

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Speaker 1: team all week. It was a mess. Meanwhile, their Pitt

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Speaker 1: is coming off of a huge upset win over ranked

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Speaker 1: and undefeated Louisville on deck. They have Notre Dame and

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Speaker 1: then I believe Florida State. So this is your classic

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Speaker 1: sandwich spot for Pitt sandwiches. Sandwiches which could come in here,

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Speaker 1: you know, a little flat against the wake Forest team

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Speaker 1: that I think you get their best effort homecoming, trying

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Speaker 1: to bounce back generally play better at home. I will

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Speaker 1: say the offense is a mess. I mean it is.

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Speaker 1: Teams have figured out that you just blitz Mitch Griffiths

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Speaker 1: and he got bench last week, but I believe his

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Speaker 1: backup currents got hurt, so it'll be Griffiths getting the

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Speaker 1: start again this week. Teams are just blitzing them, and

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Speaker 1: their offensive line can't hold up and they can't move

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Speaker 1: the ball. But I still think that wake Forest decide

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Speaker 1: here given the spot, because if you look at this

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Speaker 1: pit team, Yes, they went to the Penn State transfer

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Speaker 1: and Veyor he was a little better than jerkis Jerk,

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Speaker 1: which wasn't great. But if you look at that game

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Speaker 1: last week, I mean, he finished twelve of twenty six

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Speaker 1: for two hundred yards, didn't make any mistakes, but Pitt

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Speaker 1: was out gaining four thirty to two eighty. That game

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Speaker 1: was all about the mistakes that Louisville made. So I

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Speaker 1: think this is one of the better situational spots on

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Speaker 1: the board. I will have wake Forest on my card

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Speaker 1: any thoughts there.

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Speaker 2: I don't like wake Forest. I actually have them favored

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Speaker 2: by two here, but for no reason can I bet them.

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Speaker 2: I was actually leaning and looking towards Pitt, and I

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Speaker 2: know that the spot screams wake Forest. But I've been

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Speaker 2: betting against this wake Forest team most of this season,

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Speaker 2: and what does wake do best? And I can't find

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Speaker 2: an answer. On offense, I can't find anything. They're there

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Speaker 2: near dead last in the nation. Rush explosives, havoc allowed

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Speaker 2: quality drives and this quarterback, Mitch Grifvis. So you took

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Speaker 2: away from the starting position, you're gonna throw them back

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Speaker 2: in there with one of the worst to have it

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Speaker 2: allowed ranks in the nation. The offensive numbers all come

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Speaker 2: with a soft strength of schedule ninety fifth. They've been

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Speaker 2: going up against defenses such as Elon, Vandy and Old Dominion.

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Speaker 2: And if you look at Mitch Griffiths's numbers, he has

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Speaker 2: not recorded a big time throw in his last three

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Speaker 2: games against Georgia Tech, Clemson, and Virginia Tech. So I

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Speaker 2: get Spot and I get Fading Pitt, but wake Forest

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Speaker 2: has nothing on this team that's redeemable.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna trust the spot here because I do make

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Speaker 1: wake Forest a small favorite as well as a reminder.

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Speaker 1: The BBOC podcast is done by BETTAMGM used bonus code

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Speaker 1: action when signing up to get up to fifteen hundred

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Speaker 1: dollars paid back in bonus bets if your first bet loses.

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Speaker 1: For new users in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan,

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Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wyoming.

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Speaker 1: Terms of conditions apply. Must be twenty one or older.

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Speaker 1: Gambling problem call one eight hundred gambler. All right, let's

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Speaker 1: get to our marquee matchups of the week. It's another

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Speaker 1: fabulous weekend of college football.

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Speaker 2: Let's check out the marquee matchups. We'll all end up

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Speaker 2: bedding for week eight.

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Speaker 1: All right, this is what, as Kirk kurb Street said,

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Speaker 1: this is what college football is all about. This isn't

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Speaker 1: Thursday Night football.

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Speaker 2: And look out at that scene.

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Speaker 1: I mean, look at this.

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Speaker 2: This is You don't get this. I do Thursday night

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Speaker 2: NFL football and I love it, but you.

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Speaker 3: Do not get this unless it's a Saturday in college football.

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Speaker 2: Look at this, man.

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Speaker 1: We have Penn State at Ohio State, who will kick

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Speaker 1: off things on Saturday. What is it? Big Noon, Big

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Speaker 1: Noon on Fox, which I hate because it's big twelve

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Speaker 1: fifteen Eastern. It doesn't start at noon. This is all

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Speaker 1: they change these clockers, just get more commercial in the

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Speaker 1: The game will start at twelve to fifteen. You'll be

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Speaker 1: waiting watching the clock, and then it'll be noon, and

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Speaker 1: then they'll just be talking heads still going through the games.

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Speaker 1: But whatever unbelievable Fox snorts, I can't wait for this game.

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Speaker 1: Ohio State four to five point favor depending on the

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Speaker 1: book shop around as always over under down to fifty

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Speaker 1: forty five and a half. The under has taken significant

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Speaker 1: money ever since opening.

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Speaker 2: Now.

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Speaker 1: The question that I have here for this game is

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Speaker 1: if you look like look both head coaches I've had

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Speaker 1: issues with in the past, but I will give both

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Speaker 1: credit for making outstanding defensive coordinator hires, which I think

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Speaker 1: you're seeing paying dividends for both stop units. You know.

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Speaker 1: The biggest question that I have in this game is twofold.

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Speaker 1: I believe in the Ohas Day defense if they passed

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Speaker 1: the eye test. I'm not sold on the offense, like

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Speaker 1: I'm just not sold on Colin McCord. The running game

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Speaker 1: isn't there, the offensive line has issues. McCord has put

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Speaker 1: up some good, good games, as he should. He has

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Speaker 1: the most sordict a set of wide receivers in college football.

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Speaker 1: The biggest question I have in this game, and I'm

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Speaker 1: curious to your thoughts on it, because I don't know

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Speaker 1: if anyone knows the answer is Penn State, who has

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Speaker 1: covered I think twelve in a row dating back to

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Speaker 1: last year or eleven zero one against the spread. They've

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Speaker 1: played West Virginia, Delaware, Illinois, Iowa, Northwestern, and UMass. They've

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Speaker 1: played nobody. They've played no offense with a pulse. So

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Speaker 1: I'm like making a leap of faith on what I

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Speaker 1: see on the defense. Like you know, the metrics are outstanding,

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Speaker 1: just the eye test. To me, their defense is legit.

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Speaker 1: I think they're going to win in the trenches. But

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Speaker 1: I do have questions about their offense. They haven't had

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Speaker 1: to do much and their efficiency numbers look good, but

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Speaker 1: there's no explosiveness in this offense at all. I mean

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Speaker 1: it is they're outside the top one one hundred and

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Speaker 1: exposedness any metric you look at. Drew Al hasn't thrown

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Speaker 1: downfield at all. So the question is, and that was

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Speaker 1: the question coming into the air, Okay, let's see what

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Speaker 1: ours got and I want to see this wide receiver room.

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Speaker 1: What can someone step up and be the alpha? That

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Speaker 1: was really the question with Penn State and they haven't

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Speaker 1: had to answer it, but they will against Ohio State Michigan.

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Speaker 1: So is it that Aller just hasn't had to and

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Speaker 1: he can or and or Penn State just holding back

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Speaker 1: the offense. I don't know that's what we're gonna find out.

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Speaker 1: We're going to find out if Penn State's a true

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Speaker 1: national title contender with that offense, because they're gonna have

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Speaker 1: to open it up a little bit more this weekend.

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Speaker 2: I like the under.

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Speaker 1: I still like it at forty five and a half.

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Speaker 1: Both defenses have significant edges. I think both quarterbacks are

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Speaker 1: going to be under fire. Both teams are going to

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Speaker 1: go pretty run heavy and be pretty conservative early on

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Speaker 1: lean on their defenses. So I think this turns into

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Speaker 1: a grinder. I'm going to say twenty three twenty twenty three,

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Speaker 1: seventeen can see either team winning. I have these seens

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Speaker 1: pretty even on a neutral field right now, so I

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Speaker 1: have high of State. It's about a field goal favorite.

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Speaker 1: So I have the small lean to Penn State. But

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Speaker 1: they're just that uncertainty with their offense is keeping me

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Speaker 1: away from the side. Might look to jump in live,

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Speaker 1: but see if Tom accord what he can do against

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Speaker 1: an elite defense. What are your thoughts on this game?

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Speaker 2: I echo everything you say, I just have two different bets.

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Speaker 2: I mean, I did take Penn State on open at five.

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Speaker 2: It looks like we're having a tuggle war battle on

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Speaker 2: the key number of five in the market here with

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Speaker 2: a four and a half's and five and a half's

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Speaker 2: bouncing around, So make sure you get on the right

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Speaker 2: side of that, which I didn't know five was so key,

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Speaker 2: But there's obviously a big battle in the market. I

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Speaker 2: agree with you on everything you said as far as

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Speaker 2: going under the total. What gave me a little worry

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Speaker 2: with that was what happened in the fourth quarter last year,

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Speaker 2: where it was tight the entire game and then all

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Speaker 2: of a sudden, Haymakers got thrown in the fourth quarter.

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Speaker 2: I think there was thirty five or forty five points,

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Speaker 2: I can't remember. It was a ton of points going

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Speaker 2: on in the fourth quarter, which kind of ruined everybody's unders.

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Speaker 2: So if you look, this game is always super tight

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Speaker 2: in the first quarter, ten points or less. I've been

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Speaker 2: scored in the first quarter of this game every year

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Speaker 2: since twenty seventeen. If you throw out the pandemic season

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Speaker 2: at twenty twenty, I know I've personally thrown out every

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Speaker 2: pandemic game from twenty twenty. So this is this series

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Speaker 2: is generally really low scoring. Penn State's defense is the

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Speaker 2: best defense in the nation. It's the best one that

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Speaker 2: they're going to face. Especially from a secondary perspective, Explosives

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Speaker 2: continue to be an issue for Penn State. Penn State

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Speaker 2: is number one and offensive stuff rate, and you know

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Speaker 2: that tells me that the offensive line is doing their job.

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Speaker 1: Who knows in the running game or passing game, it's crazy.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, the passing game is. The passing game is more

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Speaker 2: easy to dissect, right, because what's happening in the second

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Speaker 2: level yards with Singleton and Allen, it's just them running

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Speaker 2: the ball. So I don't know what is going on.

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Speaker 2: Like if we don't see Penn State attempt to pass

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Speaker 2: past twenty yards in this game, I mean there is

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Speaker 2: something truly wrong. Maybe Drew Aller is coming off Tommy John,

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Speaker 2: I don't know. I really don't understand why the lack

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Speaker 2: of explosive attempts. It's not everyone's Pen State doesn't have explosives. No,

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Speaker 2: they don't have any attempts.

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Speaker 1: So, yeah, it seems like a weird thing to try

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Speaker 1: to turn on on the road against a good defense

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Speaker 1: in your biggest game of the season halfway through the year,

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Speaker 1: Like not even you know, I don't care. Franklin mocked

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Speaker 1: the reporter that ass, but like, yeah, let's just to

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Speaker 1: throw it down field a couple of times.

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Speaker 2: And then you go and you look at Kyle McCord's

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Speaker 2: numbers when he has pressure, fifteen to forty two passing

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Speaker 2: with pressure this year, Manny Diez brings blitz heavier than

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Speaker 2: any defensive coordinator of the nation. Fifty six percent blitz,

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Speaker 2: sixty seven percent success rate. He causes a negative EPA.

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Speaker 2: I don't expect Kyle McCord to just flip a switch

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Speaker 2: and have it on here. He has average success rate

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Speaker 2: and EPA against cover one in quarters Penn State plays,

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Speaker 2: they live and cover one. They cause a negative play

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Speaker 2: on twenty percent of the time. So I agree with you.

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Speaker 2: Like the under. This is an under. This is a

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Speaker 2: first half under. Either either way, you shave it. I

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Speaker 2: think you and I are key there. Penn State will

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Speaker 2: do enough to cover here because I backed them to

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Speaker 2: make the college football playoffs. This is a game. We

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Speaker 2: have to have a power rate at three. I'm sticking

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Speaker 2: with Penn State, but I have a lot more money

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Speaker 2: on the first half under.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, they don't necessarily need it, but the tie breakers

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Speaker 1: probably won't break their way because if they beat Michigan

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Speaker 1: at home and the Michigan Bezo High State and it'll

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Speaker 1: come down to tie breakers in your West Division opponents.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, I think they at the end of the

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Speaker 1: day probably need to win this game. We'll learn a

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Speaker 1: lot about each team. That's just going to be the

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Speaker 1: nature of how the Big Ten plays out this year

340
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Speaker 1: because there's no depth this year. It's like Michigan has

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Speaker 1: played nobody all year and guess what, they look dominant.

342
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Speaker 1: We got to give them credit for that. We haven't

343
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Speaker 1: really learned how good. And they won't play anybody until

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Speaker 1: they play at Penn State. Can't wait for this one

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Speaker 1: noon eastern or I should say twelve to fifteen eastern

346
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Speaker 1: on Fox, and we are go Penn State. I know

347
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Speaker 1: my dad will be happy that I'm Rudy for State

348
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Speaker 1: Diard Penn State. Then all right, let's move on to

349
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Speaker 1: our second marquee game. Let's go, let's end to the ACC.

350
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Speaker 1: We'll talk a little duke Florida State, two teams that

351
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Speaker 1: are at the top of the conference in the ACC standings.

352
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Speaker 1: Florida State is out to a I mean, double check

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Speaker 1: the market. The last I look there, fourteen and a

354
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Speaker 1: half point favor fourteen and a half point favor over

355
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Speaker 1: under has ticked down to forty nine and a half.

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Speaker 1: This game, just like Ohio State, Penn State, has massive

357
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Speaker 1: ACC College Football playoff and national title implications, even maybe

358
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Speaker 1: some Heisman for Jordan Travis. But as of right now, UNC,

359
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Speaker 1: Florida State, and Duke are undefeated in the ACC. The

360
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Speaker 1: top two teams will play each other in the ACC Championship,

361
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Speaker 1: So if Duke loses this game, they're certainly not out

362
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Speaker 1: of it because they already beat Clemson and they will

363
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Speaker 1: go to North Carolina, so they will still have a chance.

364
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Speaker 1: I don't know how much time to gets done on

365
00:18:42,960 --> 00:18:46,360
Speaker 1: this game because the big question is surrounding the health

366
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Speaker 1: of Riley Leondar. It sounds like the news is getting

367
00:18:48,960 --> 00:18:52,800
Speaker 1: more positive, but again it's an ankle injury, high ankle sprain.

368
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Speaker 1: What makes Riley Leonard so great is his legs and

369
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Speaker 1: his mobility and his ability to extend plays, his rushing ability,

370
00:19:02,560 --> 00:19:06,119
Speaker 1: and there's just a big drop off to Henry Veielan

371
00:19:06,160 --> 00:19:08,840
Speaker 1: who completed four passes last week. That when was more

372
00:19:08,840 --> 00:19:11,760
Speaker 1: about an NC State last week than it was Duke.

373
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Speaker 1: I have it as I think between seven and seven

374
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Speaker 1: and a half points. We don't have a lot of

375
00:19:16,920 --> 00:19:19,560
Speaker 1: data on the backup. But that's what I'm estimating. So

376
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Speaker 1: number one, we don't know if Leonard is going to go,

377
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Speaker 1: and number two, if he does go, we don't know

378
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Speaker 1: how effective he will be. In a hobbled Leonard with

379
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Speaker 1: limited mobility, it's just not going to get it done here.

380
00:19:33,240 --> 00:19:34,680
Speaker 1: What do you see in Duke Florida State.

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Speaker 2: Well, that's the whole thing. Like I, is he healthy

382
00:19:37,760 --> 00:19:40,159
Speaker 2: enough to play? Actually, the question is is he healthy

383
00:19:40,240 --> 00:19:42,560
Speaker 2: enough in the lower body to play? They have to

384
00:19:42,600 --> 00:19:46,040
Speaker 2: have his legs to go at this. I think before

385
00:19:46,040 --> 00:19:48,280
Speaker 2: I get into that, let's talk about the market, because

386
00:19:48,320 --> 00:19:50,760
Speaker 2: you're going to want to know when and where to buy,

387
00:19:51,200 --> 00:19:52,840
Speaker 2: and I think that is the hardest. One of the

388
00:19:52,840 --> 00:19:55,479
Speaker 2: hardest parts of our job is to set down a

389
00:19:55,480 --> 00:19:58,520
Speaker 2: power rating, assess the market, see where everybody is in

390
00:19:58,560 --> 00:20:01,600
Speaker 2: the market. Stay trust your powertings, which I do one

391
00:20:01,760 --> 00:20:03,879
Speaker 2: percent completely at this time of the year. Then you

392
00:20:03,920 --> 00:20:05,840
Speaker 2: have to assess what the market is telling you about

393
00:20:05,840 --> 00:20:09,080
Speaker 2: the injury. I make this game Florida State minus twelve

394
00:20:09,119 --> 00:20:11,920
Speaker 2: point seven. So at fourteen and a half, what you're

395
00:20:11,960 --> 00:20:17,440
Speaker 2: telling me is he's doubtful. He's doubtful to play this game. Questionable, doubtful,

396
00:20:17,600 --> 00:20:20,880
Speaker 2: the books have already protected themselves in case it comes

397
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Speaker 2: out that he isn't going to play.

398
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Speaker 1: Sometimes when you watch when there's major injury uncertainty, when

399
00:20:25,920 --> 00:20:28,840
Speaker 1: there's you know, a team steams out, especially just like

400
00:20:28,920 --> 00:20:31,880
Speaker 1: all at once, and there's nothing determined, nothing public yet

401
00:20:32,400 --> 00:20:37,439
Speaker 1: sometimes there's just a rumor or confirmation from inside. You know,

402
00:20:37,640 --> 00:20:40,720
Speaker 1: someone knows the trainer, someone knows an assistant coach. When

403
00:20:40,800 --> 00:20:43,000
Speaker 1: text goes to someone, a text goes to someone else,

404
00:20:43,040 --> 00:20:46,280
Speaker 1: it gets to a group, they start betting it coming

405
00:20:46,280 --> 00:20:49,159
Speaker 1: from respected accounts, and then the market really moves. So

406
00:20:49,520 --> 00:20:51,680
Speaker 1: a lot of times I'll say, Okay, wow, wait, even

407
00:20:51,680 --> 00:20:53,439
Speaker 1: though I show value, this is probably telling me that

408
00:20:53,480 --> 00:20:57,480
Speaker 1: there's high probability that Leonard or whatever injury is, this

409
00:20:57,560 --> 00:20:59,120
Speaker 1: guy important guy is probably going to be out.

410
00:20:59,320 --> 00:21:01,560
Speaker 2: Pay attention to the board because usually these kinds of

411
00:21:01,560 --> 00:21:04,040
Speaker 2: things are determined by Friday night, by five o'clock. Like

412
00:21:04,080 --> 00:21:06,879
Speaker 2: I've seen the board move on Friday nights. I think

413
00:21:06,920 --> 00:21:09,840
Speaker 2: the Duke secondary is going to give Jordan Travis his

414
00:21:09,960 --> 00:21:12,879
Speaker 2: toughest tests. Exactly who is Jordan Travis gone up against?

415
00:21:12,920 --> 00:21:15,320
Speaker 2: From a past defense perspective, LSU is ninety fourth and

416
00:21:15,400 --> 00:21:17,880
Speaker 2: coverage grading Southern miss is given up on the season.

417
00:21:17,880 --> 00:21:19,520
Speaker 2: Theyre one hundred and twenty sixth and cover it BC

418
00:21:19,600 --> 00:21:22,320
Speaker 2: one hundred and twenty third. Clemson fortieth, but they had

419
00:21:22,320 --> 00:21:24,879
Speaker 2: a ton of injuries when they played Virginia Tech as seventieth.

420
00:21:25,160 --> 00:21:27,680
Speaker 2: Duke's actually really good at defending the ball. They're number

421
00:21:27,720 --> 00:21:30,840
Speaker 2: one per PFF in coverage grading. Duke runs a ton

422
00:21:30,880 --> 00:21:33,280
Speaker 2: of cover one and a ton of Cover three. Jordan

423
00:21:33,320 --> 00:21:37,080
Speaker 2: Travis actually has a negative success rate against cover one.

424
00:21:37,400 --> 00:21:39,440
Speaker 2: All of that said, I'm staying away from the spread

425
00:21:39,440 --> 00:21:41,800
Speaker 2: because Riley Leonard. I like the under in this. If

426
00:21:41,880 --> 00:21:44,200
Speaker 2: Riley Leonard's announced out while everybody's trying to chase his

427
00:21:44,240 --> 00:21:46,400
Speaker 2: steam going up on the seminals, I'll be chasing it under.

428
00:21:47,080 --> 00:21:49,280
Speaker 1: Yeah. I like the under here too. I think that

429
00:21:49,359 --> 00:21:53,320
Speaker 1: Duke defense is legit. I agree with you there. All right,

430
00:21:53,359 --> 00:21:55,960
Speaker 1: let's move on to our third market game. Let's head

431
00:21:56,040 --> 00:22:02,320
Speaker 1: to prime time in the PAC twelve, US will host Utah.

432
00:22:02,880 --> 00:22:07,240
Speaker 1: USC is a looks like consensus now seven point favorite

433
00:22:07,960 --> 00:22:12,080
Speaker 1: over under sitting around fifty four. It's game eight pm

434
00:22:12,119 --> 00:22:15,879
Speaker 1: Eastern on Fox. This pains me to say, but I

435
00:22:15,960 --> 00:22:20,040
Speaker 1: love USC here. We loved it a little more under

436
00:22:20,080 --> 00:22:23,240
Speaker 1: a touchdown. But look, I think USC will bounce back

437
00:22:23,280 --> 00:22:26,080
Speaker 1: here double revenge spot. They lost twice to Utah last year,

438
00:22:26,160 --> 00:22:29,320
Speaker 1: they got embarrassed against Notre Dame. I think they will

439
00:22:29,320 --> 00:22:31,800
Speaker 1: come out of their hair on fire here against the

440
00:22:32,160 --> 00:22:36,200
Speaker 1: Utah defense that's been excellent if you look at their metrics.

441
00:22:36,520 --> 00:22:38,919
Speaker 1: But come on, let's see who have they faced? They

442
00:22:39,080 --> 00:22:42,560
Speaker 1: at home, they faced Graham Marks and a pair of

443
00:22:42,560 --> 00:22:47,080
Speaker 1: freshman quarterbacks making their first starts in hostile environments on

444
00:22:47,119 --> 00:22:50,960
Speaker 1: the road. I mean, they went to Oregon State and

445
00:22:51,000 --> 00:22:53,840
Speaker 1: got dominated. And they went to Baylor, a bad Baylor

446
00:22:53,880 --> 00:22:58,359
Speaker 1: team playing their backup making his first collegious star and

447
00:22:58,400 --> 00:23:03,760
Speaker 1: should have lost a Baylor uh like this. This team

448
00:23:03,760 --> 00:23:08,720
Speaker 1: has paid nothing but bad passing offenses and backup quarterbacks.

449
00:23:08,920 --> 00:23:12,040
Speaker 1: So I'm not sure how real. I know their defense

450
00:23:12,080 --> 00:23:13,640
Speaker 1: is going to be is good, but I don't know

451
00:23:13,720 --> 00:23:16,080
Speaker 1: how e lead it is end. They will be without

452
00:23:16,720 --> 00:23:19,480
Speaker 1: star safety Cold Bishop for a bullshit targeting call that

453
00:23:19,520 --> 00:23:20,480
Speaker 1: he got in the fourth quarter.

454
00:23:20,680 --> 00:23:21,200
Speaker 2: That's big.

455
00:23:21,240 --> 00:23:24,320
Speaker 1: He's like the leader of that defense. So if USC

456
00:23:24,359 --> 00:23:27,040
Speaker 1: comes out with their hair on fire here in a

457
00:23:27,200 --> 00:23:30,000
Speaker 1: big hype spot, I expect Kayler Williams to bounce back

458
00:23:30,000 --> 00:23:33,879
Speaker 1: at that disastrous game. I expect USC defense to simply well,

459
00:23:34,119 --> 00:23:35,440
Speaker 1: remember on, let me get back to my thought. So

460
00:23:35,480 --> 00:23:37,320
Speaker 1: they come out their hair on fire, no cold Bishop,

461
00:23:37,560 --> 00:23:40,280
Speaker 1: and they jump out to a lead. Utah's done. The

462
00:23:40,400 --> 00:23:43,679
Speaker 1: Utah offense. They have to just run it forty to

463
00:23:43,720 --> 00:23:46,000
Speaker 1: fifty times in this game, ugly it up. Try to

464
00:23:46,000 --> 00:23:50,240
Speaker 1: out physical USC, but I just don't think that they

465
00:23:50,320 --> 00:23:55,119
Speaker 1: will be able to keep pace. This offense is horrendous.

466
00:23:55,240 --> 00:23:58,119
Speaker 1: I mean, I don't think people understand how bad it

467
00:23:58,160 --> 00:24:01,000
Speaker 1: is without camerasing. Without coup be a tight end. They

468
00:24:01,080 --> 00:24:03,040
Speaker 1: just lost their other tight end for the season, and

469
00:24:03,119 --> 00:24:07,640
Speaker 1: Thomas he has mean they don't have any receivers. It's bad.

470
00:24:07,640 --> 00:24:10,560
Speaker 1: They're only one of fourteen teams in the country averaging

471
00:24:10,600 --> 00:24:15,320
Speaker 1: under five yards per play in comparison USC's averaging seven

472
00:24:15,359 --> 00:24:18,119
Speaker 1: point eight. They are also giving up a lot of

473
00:24:18,119 --> 00:24:21,560
Speaker 1: explosive plays, even though they wrenk outside the top one

474
00:24:21,640 --> 00:24:24,400
Speaker 1: hundred and explosiveness, even though they played all the teams

475
00:24:24,400 --> 00:24:28,160
Speaker 1: I just mentioned with backup quarterbacks. I think USC's gonna

476
00:24:28,200 --> 00:24:30,119
Speaker 1: hit some explosive place here. They're gonna load the box.

477
00:24:30,600 --> 00:24:32,520
Speaker 1: They showed they could do that against Notre Dame and

478
00:24:32,640 --> 00:24:35,920
Speaker 1: Notre Dame only rushed at thirty times for one hundred

479
00:24:35,920 --> 00:24:38,040
Speaker 1: and twenty five yards, and they have a much more

480
00:24:38,119 --> 00:24:41,639
Speaker 1: formidable passing attack than whatever Utah is rolling out there now.

481
00:24:42,119 --> 00:24:43,680
Speaker 1: So I think this sets up for a really good

482
00:24:43,680 --> 00:24:46,320
Speaker 1: spot for USC to come.

483
00:24:46,160 --> 00:24:46,880
Speaker 2: Out and get a lead.

484
00:24:46,880 --> 00:24:48,879
Speaker 1: And once they get a lead, you know, if they

485
00:24:48,920 --> 00:24:50,920
Speaker 1: go up two scores, Utah is done. Like they're done,

486
00:24:50,960 --> 00:24:54,080
Speaker 1: They're gonna once they have to start passing, it's over.

487
00:24:55,560 --> 00:25:01,520
Speaker 1: So I like USC here, and for what it's worth,

488
00:25:01,600 --> 00:25:04,560
Speaker 1: following a loss US, he's gone fourteen and four against

489
00:25:04,560 --> 00:25:07,920
Speaker 1: the spread as a single digit favor against league opponents

490
00:25:07,920 --> 00:25:10,160
Speaker 1: since two thousand and five, covering by over ten points

491
00:25:10,200 --> 00:25:12,679
Speaker 1: per game. They are the most profitable team in the

492
00:25:12,680 --> 00:25:15,760
Speaker 1: country in that spot over that period. So I don't

493
00:25:15,800 --> 00:25:18,280
Speaker 1: like it as much at seven, but still ligging up

494
00:25:18,280 --> 00:25:22,359
Speaker 1: to play smaller. I like the Trojans for the first time,

495
00:25:23,280 --> 00:25:25,960
Speaker 1: and I don't know two years I'm betting USA fight on.

496
00:25:28,560 --> 00:25:31,080
Speaker 2: Well, I wrote this up for action. Let's see, I

497
00:25:31,119 --> 00:25:33,080
Speaker 2: bet this on Tuesday morning. I wrote it up for

498
00:25:33,119 --> 00:25:37,560
Speaker 2: action on Tuesday afternoon, and I said under fifty six.

499
00:25:38,320 --> 00:25:41,120
Speaker 2: I had to go back with my editors this afternoon.

500
00:25:41,160 --> 00:25:45,240
Speaker 2: Here on Thursday. It's the numbers fifty three. So sometimes

501
00:25:45,240 --> 00:25:46,520
Speaker 2: you got to go back and review which you put

502
00:25:46,560 --> 00:25:49,600
Speaker 2: in there. But there is a book out there in Iowa, Pennsylvania,

503
00:25:49,600 --> 00:25:51,399
Speaker 2: a couple others that is supporting a fifty four and

504
00:25:51,440 --> 00:25:53,720
Speaker 2: a half fifty five being the biggest key in total.

505
00:25:53,800 --> 00:25:55,639
Speaker 2: So if you can try to get close to that,

506
00:25:55,680 --> 00:25:59,600
Speaker 2: I would suggest an under But look, Caleb, will we.

507
00:25:59,600 --> 00:26:01,680
Speaker 1: Assume Rising and Couthie are done right? Like just they're

508
00:26:02,240 --> 00:26:02,359
Speaker 1: just not?

509
00:26:02,600 --> 00:26:05,560
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, I mean like I mean, witting Am says it.

510
00:26:05,640 --> 00:26:08,440
Speaker 2: He says the same thing every day for weeks. We're

511
00:26:08,480 --> 00:26:11,400
Speaker 2: just waiting on that phone call on came Rising right,

512
00:26:11,480 --> 00:26:14,800
Speaker 2: And I don't know. I'm not a surgeon. I didn't

513
00:26:14,840 --> 00:26:17,760
Speaker 2: go to medical school, but like, either you know or

514
00:26:17,800 --> 00:26:20,200
Speaker 2: you don't. With your knee, like what are they running

515
00:26:20,320 --> 00:26:22,800
Speaker 2: tests every day on Rising? Like I mean, how have

516
00:26:22,920 --> 00:26:24,760
Speaker 2: we been going seven weeks now? And we don't know

517
00:26:24,800 --> 00:26:27,200
Speaker 2: when he's going to be ready? It's like it's like

518
00:26:27,240 --> 00:26:29,119
Speaker 2: you're stuck in court or something like you're a juror.

519
00:26:29,160 --> 00:26:30,680
Speaker 2: I don't know, I don't know why this is taking

520
00:26:30,720 --> 00:26:33,400
Speaker 2: so long. But yeah, yeah, it ended up being way

521
00:26:33,400 --> 00:26:34,600
Speaker 2: worse than it originally.

522
00:26:34,600 --> 00:26:36,640
Speaker 1: It wasn't just an ACL I did the same thing

523
00:26:37,080 --> 00:26:39,720
Speaker 1: ACL mcl every ligament that's what he tore so did.

524
00:26:40,240 --> 00:26:42,359
Speaker 1: The timetable is not even there yet. And for when

525
00:26:42,400 --> 00:26:44,720
Speaker 1: it's worth going back to Leonard with his injury, sometimes

526
00:26:44,720 --> 00:26:47,359
Speaker 1: you got to read the tea leaves and Elko is like,

527
00:26:47,400 --> 00:26:49,199
Speaker 1: we don't want to risk the long term health. We

528
00:26:49,200 --> 00:26:50,800
Speaker 1: don't want to risk the long term health. Like that's

529
00:26:51,000 --> 00:26:54,359
Speaker 1: when you're hearing that a lot of times, that's basically saying, hey,

530
00:26:54,359 --> 00:26:55,760
Speaker 1: we're going to sit them out, but anyway, go ahead.

531
00:26:56,040 --> 00:26:58,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, And there's just I mean, you're right, there's other

532
00:26:58,080 --> 00:27:01,000
Speaker 2: injuries here. Brent Couthy and then Jaquin Jackson missed the

533
00:27:01,040 --> 00:27:02,800
Speaker 2: game and he came back and ran last week and

534
00:27:02,840 --> 00:27:04,440
Speaker 2: they asked him like what bide you run? So already

535
00:27:04,440 --> 00:27:06,160
Speaker 2: He's like, I'm pissed off and tired of being injured.

536
00:27:06,200 --> 00:27:08,119
Speaker 2: I'm tired of all of us being injured. So there

537
00:27:08,160 --> 00:27:09,919
Speaker 2: is a chip on the shoulder of this Utah offense

538
00:27:09,960 --> 00:27:12,840
Speaker 2: when it comes to injuries. But I am going to

539
00:27:12,880 --> 00:27:14,679
Speaker 2: take Utah at seven and a half. If we a

540
00:27:14,680 --> 00:27:17,080
Speaker 2: hook out there, I'm gonna take it. I wouldn't do

541
00:27:17,080 --> 00:27:19,119
Speaker 2: it at six and seven, like where you're buying USC

542
00:27:19,160 --> 00:27:21,080
Speaker 2: but I will take seven and a half. So let me

543
00:27:21,200 --> 00:27:22,800
Speaker 2: let me just make this case out there. I said

544
00:27:22,800 --> 00:27:24,680
Speaker 2: this on the New BCS. I'll repeat it. I'm sorry

545
00:27:24,680 --> 00:27:27,199
Speaker 2: for everyone to watch New BCS. Caleb Williams has not

546
00:27:27,200 --> 00:27:29,720
Speaker 2: made a big time throw since Week four against Arizona State.

547
00:27:30,280 --> 00:27:32,760
Speaker 2: He has a nine to thirteen big time throw to

548
00:27:32,840 --> 00:27:36,639
Speaker 2: turnover worthy play rate. That's in contrast to a thirty

549
00:27:36,680 --> 00:27:39,760
Speaker 2: two to eleven rate last year when he won the Heisman.

550
00:27:39,920 --> 00:27:42,320
Speaker 2: He only had six fumbles last year. He's got nine

551
00:27:42,320 --> 00:27:44,720
Speaker 2: this year. I don't know what's going on. I don't

552
00:27:44,800 --> 00:27:46,520
Speaker 2: know if it's you.

553
00:27:46,480 --> 00:27:48,840
Speaker 1: Know, receivers aren't as good. They lost some pros, and

554
00:27:48,880 --> 00:27:50,680
Speaker 1: the offensive line is kind of a mess like that.

555
00:27:50,960 --> 00:27:52,840
Speaker 1: They're still trying to figure that out up front. So

556
00:27:52,880 --> 00:27:55,000
Speaker 1: I think he's like rushed and trying to do too much.

557
00:27:55,840 --> 00:27:57,280
Speaker 2: I think the one thing that puzzles me is that

558
00:27:57,359 --> 00:28:01,160
Speaker 2: PacTel Media Days Cast Your Tickets interviewed Caleb Williams face

559
00:28:01,200 --> 00:28:02,800
Speaker 2: to face and he said, the one thing I learned

560
00:28:02,840 --> 00:28:05,399
Speaker 2: from last year, especially in the Pactol Championship game, is

561
00:28:05,440 --> 00:28:07,320
Speaker 2: that I don't have to leave the pocket all the time,

562
00:28:07,600 --> 00:28:09,520
Speaker 2: and I don't have to make all these spectacular plays

563
00:28:09,520 --> 00:28:11,600
Speaker 2: with my legs. So I thought we would come into

564
00:28:11,600 --> 00:28:14,000
Speaker 2: this season he'd be more of a pocket passer, working

565
00:28:14,040 --> 00:28:16,800
Speaker 2: on that, getting ready for the NFL, and lo and behold.

566
00:28:16,880 --> 00:28:19,320
Speaker 2: Every single play is that little spin move that he

567
00:28:19,359 --> 00:28:21,560
Speaker 2: does outside the tackle box and he throws off of

568
00:28:21,600 --> 00:28:25,680
Speaker 2: one leg side armed like everything is a Patrick Mahomes replica.

569
00:28:26,119 --> 00:28:29,479
Speaker 2: And I You're just not there yet, you know. And

570
00:28:29,560 --> 00:28:32,680
Speaker 2: so are you distracted? Are you not putting in the work?

571
00:28:32,760 --> 00:28:36,000
Speaker 2: Are you not studying defensive coverages? Speaking of that, in

572
00:28:36,080 --> 00:28:39,360
Speaker 2: this game, Utah runs an elite coverage unit, Cover three

573
00:28:39,360 --> 00:28:42,440
Speaker 2: and Cover one. Caleb has struggled against Cover three and

574
00:28:42,440 --> 00:28:45,360
Speaker 2: Cover one. He is really good against quarters. I talked

575
00:28:45,360 --> 00:28:47,280
Speaker 2: about that last week with Notre Dame, and Notre Dame

576
00:28:47,320 --> 00:28:49,880
Speaker 2: picked him off a number of times. So I took

577
00:28:50,000 --> 00:28:51,760
Speaker 2: Utah on the under here. I don't think Caleb's going

578
00:28:51,800 --> 00:28:53,719
Speaker 2: to get it back just because of the coverage numbers.

579
00:28:54,200 --> 00:28:56,960
Speaker 2: Utah's defense will see if that translates outside of Rice Echoles.

580
00:28:57,200 --> 00:28:58,800
Speaker 2: But let me make a case for why I'm going

581
00:28:58,880 --> 00:29:01,280
Speaker 2: to take Utah at seven and a half. Nate Johnson

582
00:29:01,400 --> 00:29:05,160
Speaker 2: was listed above Bryson Barnes as the quarterback behind Cam Rising,

583
00:29:05,360 --> 00:29:07,360
Speaker 2: Nate Johnson's going to get the start here, especially when

584
00:29:07,400 --> 00:29:10,640
Speaker 2: Cam Rising this officially announced not going to play this week.

585
00:29:12,520 --> 00:29:15,160
Speaker 2: That would lead me to think that Utah is going

586
00:29:15,200 --> 00:29:18,480
Speaker 2: to go into the coliseum with a one percent plan

587
00:29:18,640 --> 00:29:21,840
Speaker 2: to attack on the ground. USC is eighty third defensive

588
00:29:21,920 --> 00:29:24,680
Speaker 2: rushing success rate. That is exactly where you want to

589
00:29:24,680 --> 00:29:26,800
Speaker 2: attack them is on the ground. Then you go back

590
00:29:26,840 --> 00:29:30,320
Speaker 2: into USC schedule, how many time has their defense faced

591
00:29:30,800 --> 00:29:34,360
Speaker 2: a dual threat quarterback? Shavon Cordero had seventy two rushing

592
00:29:34,440 --> 00:29:37,480
Speaker 2: yards in the opener, Shadura Sanders had seventy six yards

593
00:29:37,520 --> 00:29:41,280
Speaker 2: in a TV when Colorado played USC, and Arizona backup

594
00:29:41,320 --> 00:29:45,040
Speaker 2: Noah Fafida scrambled for thirty and had no problems getting

595
00:29:45,040 --> 00:29:48,400
Speaker 2: down the field in a couple of scrambles. USC's defense

596
00:29:48,440 --> 00:29:50,920
Speaker 2: has not done well with dual threat quarterbacks. If Nate

597
00:29:51,000 --> 00:29:53,480
Speaker 2: Johnson is the guy, which he is per the depth chart,

598
00:29:54,040 --> 00:29:56,000
Speaker 2: that's where Utah is going to attack, and I think

599
00:29:56,000 --> 00:29:59,160
Speaker 2: that benefits them. I mean, you're bringing defensive backs over right,

600
00:29:59,240 --> 00:30:02,120
Speaker 2: see only Vaki coming in playing some running back. Uh,

601
00:30:03,040 --> 00:30:04,400
Speaker 2: that's where they're going to tack us. On the ground.

602
00:30:04,440 --> 00:30:05,880
Speaker 2: I will take seven and a half in this game.

603
00:30:06,280 --> 00:30:08,160
Speaker 2: Did you say yeah?

604
00:30:08,280 --> 00:30:09,840
Speaker 1: The one thing I will say though, is that USC

605
00:30:09,960 --> 00:30:13,240
Speaker 1: has struggled to defend the last two years. If you

606
00:30:13,280 --> 00:30:17,240
Speaker 1: have just a passing offense with a pulse, they can't

607
00:30:17,240 --> 00:30:20,120
Speaker 1: defend the run. Yeah, but if they're but if they're

608
00:30:20,160 --> 00:30:22,520
Speaker 1: able to load the box, I mean most teams can.

609
00:30:22,600 --> 00:30:25,000
Speaker 1: If you don't have any threat on the outside. They

610
00:30:25,000 --> 00:30:28,680
Speaker 1: have enough guys there and I'm just not sure that

611
00:30:29,120 --> 00:30:33,240
Speaker 1: Utah has anybody that can threaten USC in the passing game.

612
00:30:33,600 --> 00:30:35,560
Speaker 1: Utah definitely has I think the coaching edge and the

613
00:30:35,560 --> 00:30:37,280
Speaker 1: physicality edge. But I think this is a good spot

614
00:30:37,280 --> 00:30:39,360
Speaker 1: for USC. I think they're going to jump out early

615
00:30:39,400 --> 00:30:42,360
Speaker 1: and then it's just gonna be tough for Utah. All right,

616
00:30:42,440 --> 00:30:45,400
Speaker 1: let's move on to our final marquee game of the

617
00:30:45,520 --> 00:30:50,640
Speaker 1: day and let's head to the SEC. It's a really

618
00:30:51,120 --> 00:30:58,560
Speaker 1: lackluster SEC slate here. It just means more. Alabama Tennessee

619
00:30:58,720 --> 00:31:01,080
Speaker 1: is a good one. They're both one loss in the season.

620
00:31:01,440 --> 00:31:05,320
Speaker 1: Massive game for you know, college fael playoff hopes, SEC

621
00:31:05,520 --> 00:31:09,880
Speaker 1: title hopes, everything here. Alabama is an eight and a

622
00:31:09,880 --> 00:31:12,680
Speaker 1: half point favorite. Under has taking money down to forty

623
00:31:12,720 --> 00:31:14,680
Speaker 1: eight and a half. When I look at this game,

624
00:31:14,760 --> 00:31:18,400
Speaker 1: break it down on the surface. Tennessee's rushing attack has

625
00:31:18,400 --> 00:31:20,840
Speaker 1: been excellent. They basically changed their entire offense. They have

626
00:31:20,880 --> 00:31:24,720
Speaker 1: a three headed monster in the backfield. The passing efficiency

627
00:31:24,800 --> 00:31:28,000
Speaker 1: is just not there with Joe Milton, even with teams

628
00:31:28,000 --> 00:31:29,720
Speaker 1: having to bring more guys in the box, he can't

629
00:31:29,800 --> 00:31:31,960
Speaker 1: hit anything downfield. Even last week against Texas A and

630
00:31:32,080 --> 00:31:36,440
Speaker 1: M questionable secondary wasn't hitting anything downfield. The accuracy just

631
00:31:36,480 --> 00:31:39,600
Speaker 1: isn't there. And I don't think you can make a

632
00:31:39,640 --> 00:31:43,960
Speaker 1: living just running on Alabama. When you go to the

633
00:31:43,960 --> 00:31:48,360
Speaker 1: other side of the ball, the Tennessee defense might be legit.

634
00:31:49,080 --> 00:31:50,720
Speaker 1: They've been really good. They're getting a ton of pressure.

635
00:31:50,720 --> 00:31:54,000
Speaker 1: They've been great against the run, and their secondary numbers

636
00:31:54,000 --> 00:31:56,720
Speaker 1: are also pretty good. A lot of that's predicated on pressure,

637
00:31:57,240 --> 00:31:59,560
Speaker 1: and you can get pressure on Alabama and Miller is

638
00:31:59,560 --> 00:32:02,000
Speaker 1: going to take it stacks. Mila is a tough cookie

639
00:32:02,040 --> 00:32:05,840
Speaker 1: to crap because he he's taking a ton of sacks,

640
00:32:05,880 --> 00:32:09,280
Speaker 1: album has taking them too many tackles for loss, and

641
00:32:09,400 --> 00:32:11,520
Speaker 1: he's not an efficient passer when it comes to the

642
00:32:11,720 --> 00:32:15,280
Speaker 1: short to intermediate routes. He can't really read defenses that well.

643
00:32:15,280 --> 00:32:17,640
Speaker 1: When he's forced to drop back and go through his progressions.

644
00:32:18,200 --> 00:32:20,760
Speaker 1: He has an elite deep ball, I mean elite, and

645
00:32:20,800 --> 00:32:23,560
Speaker 1: he's going to hit a couple of game and that

646
00:32:23,720 --> 00:32:28,400
Speaker 1: just throws a wrench into everyone's plans, and especially because

647
00:32:28,400 --> 00:32:31,920
Speaker 1: you don't respect their passing attack overall. And you're going

648
00:32:32,000 --> 00:32:34,720
Speaker 1: to have these stretches where Milroe looks awful, right, and

649
00:32:34,720 --> 00:32:36,840
Speaker 1: there's a bunch of three and outs. You're bringing the

650
00:32:36,880 --> 00:32:38,239
Speaker 1: guys in the box and you're trying to slow down

651
00:32:38,240 --> 00:32:40,840
Speaker 1: their rushing attack, and you're paying attention to Milroe as

652
00:32:40,880 --> 00:32:43,440
Speaker 1: a rushing threat. What does that lead to a lot

653
00:32:43,440 --> 00:32:46,880
Speaker 1: of single coverage? And then you're going to hit you know,

654
00:32:46,920 --> 00:32:48,840
Speaker 1: all of a sudden, there'll be a seventy yard completion

655
00:32:48,920 --> 00:32:51,760
Speaker 1: that breaks the game open. And he throws a beautiful,

656
00:32:51,840 --> 00:32:54,320
Speaker 1: accurate deep ball, one of the best in college football,

657
00:32:54,680 --> 00:32:56,920
Speaker 1: one of the best for any Alabama quarterback over the

658
00:32:56,960 --> 00:33:01,160
Speaker 1: past thirty years. So how many does he hit this game?

659
00:33:01,280 --> 00:33:03,160
Speaker 1: I think that's basically what it boils down to. I

660
00:33:03,240 --> 00:33:08,720
Speaker 1: don't see either team really having success sustaining drives consistently,

661
00:33:09,160 --> 00:33:11,880
Speaker 1: so I think you'll see a lot of punts. I

662
00:33:11,920 --> 00:33:14,479
Speaker 1: think the difference in this game is going to be

663
00:33:15,440 --> 00:33:19,120
Speaker 1: Alabama hits a couple of those deep shots. That's the

664
00:33:19,160 --> 00:33:21,480
Speaker 1: difference at home, and Milton has showed that he can't.

665
00:33:21,760 --> 00:33:24,160
Speaker 1: So I'm assuming Alabama is going to commit to the run, right.

666
00:33:24,560 --> 00:33:27,080
Speaker 1: You could get Malachai Moore back here too in the secondary.

667
00:33:27,680 --> 00:33:28,480
Speaker 2: I like the under.

668
00:33:29,000 --> 00:33:32,080
Speaker 1: I'm just afraid of, like when does the explosion happen?

669
00:33:32,400 --> 00:33:35,240
Speaker 1: So maybe a first half under is a look, maybe

670
00:33:35,560 --> 00:33:37,479
Speaker 1: because I do think Bama's going to go run heavies,

671
00:33:37,560 --> 00:33:39,080
Speaker 1: to start lean on their day and then take the

672
00:33:39,080 --> 00:33:41,440
Speaker 1: shots when they come. What do you see here?

673
00:33:42,000 --> 00:33:43,680
Speaker 2: I would be more comfortable with the first half under

674
00:33:43,680 --> 00:33:46,560
Speaker 2: than a full game, especially being a revenge spot with

675
00:33:47,080 --> 00:33:50,120
Speaker 2: Saban getting more krusty and pissed as the day goes by,

676
00:33:50,360 --> 00:33:51,560
Speaker 2: the day's going. That's a good point.

677
00:33:51,560 --> 00:33:53,800
Speaker 1: I remember this is Alabama has had this game circle.

678
00:33:54,200 --> 00:33:58,000
Speaker 2: I feel strong about this now, really strong. Yeah, alabamv

679
00:33:58,080 --> 00:34:00,200
Speaker 2: has probably been waiting on this one. And you know

680
00:34:00,200 --> 00:34:02,040
Speaker 2: what all echo what's going on with Joe Milton? I mean,

681
00:34:02,120 --> 00:34:04,520
Speaker 2: I I don't know. I feel like I've been talking

682
00:34:04,520 --> 00:34:07,080
Speaker 2: about this since March Madness was going on earlier this year.

683
00:34:07,120 --> 00:34:10,000
Speaker 2: I mean, Joe Milton is not the quarterback for this offense.

684
00:34:10,320 --> 00:34:11,840
Speaker 2: He has all the arm strength in the world, but

685
00:34:11,880 --> 00:34:14,680
Speaker 2: his efficiency takes a drop and passes over twenty yards,

686
00:34:14,920 --> 00:34:18,280
Speaker 2: He's hit eight of twenty five. Just a completion percentage

687
00:34:18,280 --> 00:34:20,839
Speaker 2: of thirty six percent on passes over twenty yards. That

688
00:34:21,520 --> 00:34:24,240
Speaker 2: is horrific. It's not SEC level, It's not any level.

689
00:34:24,760 --> 00:34:26,759
Speaker 2: And I don't know how Joe Milton's going to great

690
00:34:26,760 --> 00:34:28,680
Speaker 2: out for the NFL Draft or whatever team he's going

691
00:34:28,719 --> 00:34:31,640
Speaker 2: to end up on. It just feels so will levis

692
00:34:31,800 --> 00:34:34,719
Speaker 2: Ish that Tennessee pass rush got saved his attention and

693
00:34:34,800 --> 00:34:36,399
Speaker 2: his press for this week. He gave a whole hell

694
00:34:36,480 --> 00:34:38,200
Speaker 2: yeah when he was asked about do you think it's

695
00:34:38,239 --> 00:34:41,200
Speaker 2: going to be a problem. The progression of this offense

696
00:34:41,360 --> 00:34:46,200
Speaker 2: since the Week two loss to Texas and Jaylen Milroe

697
00:34:46,239 --> 00:34:51,040
Speaker 2: being benched in a typhoon down at South Florida, Tommy

698
00:34:51,040 --> 00:34:54,040
Speaker 2: Reeze has changed this offense a little bit. Jalen Milroe

699
00:34:54,080 --> 00:34:56,879
Speaker 2: is not a five step drop read your progressions guy.

700
00:34:57,040 --> 00:34:59,279
Speaker 2: He is a hot read or take off that is

701
00:34:59,360 --> 00:35:02,360
Speaker 2: Jalen Hurts. Jalen Milroe needs to be running the Jalen

702
00:35:02,400 --> 00:35:06,720
Speaker 2: Hurts offense, and Tommy Reeves is slowly getting there. Tennessee

703
00:35:06,760 --> 00:35:08,719
Speaker 2: is going to be all over this offensive line. They're

704
00:35:08,719 --> 00:35:11,080
Speaker 2: going to be all over Jalen Milroe. What is Alabama

705
00:35:11,080 --> 00:35:13,040
Speaker 2: going to do about it? If Tennessee just lines up

706
00:35:13,040 --> 00:35:14,879
Speaker 2: and runs eight yards down the field on their pass rush,

707
00:35:14,920 --> 00:35:17,120
Speaker 2: Jayala Milroe is going to be gone. So it's like

708
00:35:17,200 --> 00:35:19,600
Speaker 2: it's a delicate thing trying to give him a pass rush.

709
00:35:19,880 --> 00:35:22,080
Speaker 2: I love the stat couldn't even believe I read it.

710
00:35:22,120 --> 00:35:25,000
Speaker 2: This week. Milroe has the third highest pressure to sack

711
00:35:25,120 --> 00:35:27,920
Speaker 2: ratio in the nation. Not surprised looking at pressure and

712
00:35:27,920 --> 00:35:29,400
Speaker 2: avoiding season sack like four.

713
00:35:29,320 --> 00:35:32,719
Speaker 1: Or five times for a month, for like four or

714
00:35:32,760 --> 00:35:33,720
Speaker 1: five straight games.

715
00:35:33,920 --> 00:35:37,719
Speaker 2: Jalen Milroe has the second highest NFL grade of any

716
00:35:37,760 --> 00:35:40,759
Speaker 2: quarterback in college football in a pressured pocket. He's that

717
00:35:40,880 --> 00:35:43,880
Speaker 2: good in a pressured pocket. I mean, I see this

718
00:35:44,040 --> 00:35:48,640
Speaker 2: going from one possession game into Saban going into revenge

719
00:35:48,640 --> 00:35:51,080
Speaker 2: mode in the second half. Why did you push yourself?

720
00:35:51,200 --> 00:35:53,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think I'm gonna go with a little first

721
00:35:53,040 --> 00:35:56,040
Speaker 1: half under. I like that is with the spot. Alabama's

722
00:35:56,080 --> 00:35:59,359
Speaker 1: had this circle where you see that the most is

723
00:36:00,280 --> 00:36:04,960
Speaker 1: usually with the defense. So I think the Alabama defense

724
00:36:05,719 --> 00:36:10,160
Speaker 1: is going to be excellent early on especially Yeah, I'm

725
00:36:10,160 --> 00:36:11,719
Speaker 1: going to go with the first half under are.

726
00:36:11,680 --> 00:36:13,960
Speaker 2: We going to buy an Alabama National Championship future? If

727
00:36:13,960 --> 00:36:15,799
Speaker 2: he starts to look like Jalen Hurts more and more

728
00:36:15,840 --> 00:36:16,200
Speaker 2: and more.

729
00:36:16,480 --> 00:36:19,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, Well, we'll explore that more early next week and

730
00:36:19,200 --> 00:36:22,239
Speaker 1: on our recap episode. Don't forget about the voicemail nine

731
00:36:22,239 --> 00:36:24,640
Speaker 1: to five nine Bad Beat. We'll do our recap episode

732
00:36:25,400 --> 00:36:27,879
Speaker 1: Sunday morning with a quick week nine book ahead. Also,

733
00:36:27,880 --> 00:36:29,439
Speaker 1: don't forget to check out the group of five guys.

734
00:36:29,520 --> 00:36:32,040
Speaker 1: Mike and Mike do an excellent job breakdown Group of

735
00:36:32,080 --> 00:36:35,680
Speaker 1: five Mike Calbries and Mike Guyanella every Wednesday morning here

736
00:36:35,719 --> 00:36:39,359
Speaker 1: on BBOC. They nailed and you as well in New

737
00:36:39,360 --> 00:36:42,799
Speaker 1: Mexico State and Diego football on Wednesday night. And they

738
00:36:42,840 --> 00:36:45,680
Speaker 1: also love Georgia State.

739
00:36:45,719 --> 00:36:47,960
Speaker 2: This week and welcome back mister Calbres.

740
00:36:48,320 --> 00:36:51,080
Speaker 1: Good welcome back Cobol as well. Before we move on

741
00:36:51,120 --> 00:36:54,920
Speaker 1: to Rapid Fire, I do want to just ask you,

742
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Speaker 1: All right, let's get to our Rapid Fires cover three

759
00:37:59,640 --> 00:38:01,399
Speaker 1: gay Well a couple of four games here.

760
00:38:02,880 --> 00:38:05,600
Speaker 2: Rapid Fire Club's.

761
00:38:05,239 --> 00:38:09,680
Speaker 1: In Miami, another game in the state of Florida. Another

762
00:38:09,719 --> 00:38:12,319
Speaker 1: ACC game in the state of Florida, with quarterback uncertainty.

763
00:38:13,000 --> 00:38:16,799
Speaker 1: The big question here is how healthy is Tyler Van Dyck.

764
00:38:18,120 --> 00:38:22,000
Speaker 1: Maria Crystal Ball seemed to insist that he's fine, He's

765
00:38:22,000 --> 00:38:25,080
Speaker 1: gonna play, but there's definitely. You know, if if he

766
00:38:25,120 --> 00:38:28,480
Speaker 1: does play, and we assume he does, how effected is

767
00:38:28,480 --> 00:38:31,200
Speaker 1: he going to be? You know, this Clemson offense has

768
00:38:31,200 --> 00:38:35,120
Speaker 1: been really disappointing. I haven't really seen any improvement under

769
00:38:35,400 --> 00:38:38,439
Speaker 1: Garrett Riley, Like I wanted to see more explosiveness and yeah,

770
00:38:38,880 --> 00:38:41,960
Speaker 1: go look at that way Forest game just ugly. I

771
00:38:42,480 --> 00:38:44,640
Speaker 1: just don't see it. So I don't know if they

772
00:38:44,680 --> 00:38:47,240
Speaker 1: can take advantage of some of the coverage issues Miami

773
00:38:47,680 --> 00:38:52,319
Speaker 1: has on the outside at times, especially when they have

774
00:38:52,400 --> 00:38:58,000
Speaker 1: played better competition. So this game's games that's tough to crack.

775
00:38:58,080 --> 00:39:01,879
Speaker 1: I would lean under here, actually, assuming that Van Dyke

776
00:39:01,920 --> 00:39:05,600
Speaker 1: won't be at one hundred percent Compson three point favorite

777
00:39:05,600 --> 00:39:07,279
Speaker 1: over unders down to I think forty eight and a

778
00:39:07,320 --> 00:39:10,520
Speaker 1: half wouldn't go below forty eight, but lean to the

779
00:39:10,560 --> 00:39:11,840
Speaker 1: underhaar any thoughts here.

780
00:39:12,880 --> 00:39:14,839
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm supposed to bet on Clemson, but I think

781
00:39:14,880 --> 00:39:17,040
Speaker 2: my wallet keeps getting in the way every time I try.

782
00:39:17,360 --> 00:39:19,439
Speaker 2: How healthy is Tyler van Dyke? I don't think he's

783
00:39:19,440 --> 00:39:21,680
Speaker 2: that healthy. I mean he's had three of his five

784
00:39:21,680 --> 00:39:24,640
Speaker 2: turnover worthy plays of coming the last two weeks against

785
00:39:24,640 --> 00:39:27,520
Speaker 2: Georgia Tech and North Carolina. How healthy is that finger

786
00:39:27,600 --> 00:39:29,400
Speaker 2: that he has. He had a fumble last week against

787
00:39:29,400 --> 00:39:33,640
Speaker 2: North Carolina, so you know, I mean Miami has a

788
00:39:33,719 --> 00:39:37,480
Speaker 2: legitimate pass passing attack. They had a span of ten

789
00:39:37,560 --> 00:39:40,880
Speaker 2: tds no I in t's over eight hundred yards in

790
00:39:40,920 --> 00:39:43,760
Speaker 2: a three game stretch against Texas A and m Bethune,

791
00:39:43,800 --> 00:39:45,799
Speaker 2: Cookman and Temple, And of course those last two teams

792
00:39:45,800 --> 00:39:49,480
Speaker 2: are horrible, but Miami did have a great passing attack,

793
00:39:50,080 --> 00:39:52,560
Speaker 2: and Clemson has been fantastic in success rate and limiting

794
00:39:52,560 --> 00:39:56,520
Speaker 2: explosives against opponents passing attempts. So I have to ask, like,

795
00:39:57,200 --> 00:40:00,000
Speaker 2: is the book out on this Miami offense because it's declined.

796
00:40:00,719 --> 00:40:05,040
Speaker 2: Is it health, is it scheme? Whatever it is. I mean,

797
00:40:05,400 --> 00:40:08,399
Speaker 2: I took a big loss. I loved Miami last week.

798
00:40:08,440 --> 00:40:10,319
Speaker 2: In that game, they were fine until the second half

799
00:40:10,320 --> 00:40:14,359
Speaker 2: and North Carolina just dominated him. Whatever halftime adjustments were

800
00:40:14,400 --> 00:40:16,919
Speaker 2: made by Jeane Chiswick, and I can't believe I'm saying

801
00:40:16,920 --> 00:40:19,560
Speaker 2: this out loud. Whatever halftime adjustments were made by Jane

802
00:40:19,600 --> 00:40:22,720
Speaker 2: Chiswick of North Carolina, it worked in shutting down Miami

803
00:40:23,160 --> 00:40:25,399
Speaker 2: and limiting Tyler Van Dyke. I think I'd ever say

804
00:40:25,440 --> 00:40:29,759
Speaker 2: that line. So I'm a little bit nervous about the

805
00:40:29,800 --> 00:40:32,000
Speaker 2: fact that North Carolina was able to completely turn that

806
00:40:32,040 --> 00:40:36,440
Speaker 2: game around, caused turnovers and dominate the Hurricanes in the

807
00:40:36,480 --> 00:40:40,279
Speaker 2: second half. Because now that's all on film for the

808
00:40:40,280 --> 00:40:43,720
Speaker 2: whole Clemson staff to digest. The Miami defense is causing

809
00:40:43,760 --> 00:40:46,080
Speaker 2: a ton of havoc here, but can cave club to

810
00:40:46,120 --> 00:40:48,480
Speaker 2: continue a streak of no interception that dates back to

811
00:40:48,480 --> 00:40:51,680
Speaker 2: Week two against Charleston Southern. He's still committing turnover worth

812
00:40:51,719 --> 00:40:54,719
Speaker 2: he plays every week. He's got a six to ten. Yeah,

813
00:40:54,719 --> 00:40:57,160
Speaker 2: it's not been good, but the offense has no explosives

814
00:40:57,160 --> 00:40:58,600
Speaker 2: in the ground or the air. They're one hundred and

815
00:40:58,640 --> 00:41:02,360
Speaker 2: twenty eighth in passing EPA gross. But the place to

816
00:41:02,480 --> 00:41:05,000
Speaker 2: attack Miami is in the air. That's why I can't

817
00:41:05,320 --> 00:41:08,120
Speaker 2: get a bet out on me on Clemson because you're,

818
00:41:08,360 --> 00:41:09,080
Speaker 2: you know, passing it ten.

819
00:41:09,239 --> 00:41:12,000
Speaker 1: You want to attack that Miami. There's Miami corners. Yeah,

820
00:41:12,320 --> 00:41:14,839
Speaker 1: and then I don't know if Clemson's capable, right, and.

821
00:41:14,800 --> 00:41:17,200
Speaker 2: The offensive line is one hundred and tenth and pressures allowed,

822
00:41:17,280 --> 00:41:20,120
Speaker 2: Like they're not protecting Clubnick either. Now, I think the

823
00:41:20,160 --> 00:41:22,040
Speaker 2: one thing that I'm really interested is like they're the

824
00:41:22,120 --> 00:41:26,120
Speaker 2: narrative around, Like is clubnic a bad passer? Believe it

825
00:41:26,200 --> 00:41:29,400
Speaker 2: or not, Clemson is eighth in on target rank. I

826
00:41:29,400 --> 00:41:31,440
Speaker 2: brought on target up. Do you hit your wide receiver

827
00:41:31,480 --> 00:41:33,480
Speaker 2: and stride so that he doesn't have to move? Clemson's

828
00:41:33,520 --> 00:41:36,000
Speaker 2: actually eight. This is old. Receiver's just not that good.

829
00:41:36,120 --> 00:41:38,359
Speaker 2: The receivers are bad. They had three jobs last week

830
00:41:38,400 --> 00:41:41,319
Speaker 2: against wake Tyler Brown, the slot wide receiver. He's been

831
00:41:41,320 --> 00:41:43,000
Speaker 2: the most explosive. I think he's the only one that's

832
00:41:43,040 --> 00:41:45,239
Speaker 2: over two yards per route run. So it's all on

833
00:41:45,280 --> 00:41:49,320
Speaker 2: the receivers. Clubnick's actually throwing a very accurate ball, which

834
00:41:49,640 --> 00:41:51,080
Speaker 2: makes you want to take Clemson in, but at the

835
00:41:51,120 --> 00:41:53,680
Speaker 2: same time they can't protect him that he doesn't have

836
00:41:53,680 --> 00:41:55,920
Speaker 2: any receivers. I like Clemson this game. I just don't

837
00:41:55,920 --> 00:41:58,399
Speaker 2: know if I can get myself into play in it. Yeah.

838
00:41:58,640 --> 00:42:02,080
Speaker 1: I think the under is, you know, appealing here because

839
00:42:02,080 --> 00:42:04,200
Speaker 1: I don't think clemps cauld take advantage of Minmy's corners.

840
00:42:04,680 --> 00:42:06,360
Speaker 1: I don't think Van Dyke will be one hundred percent.

841
00:42:06,719 --> 00:42:10,480
Speaker 1: H This clumpson defense is way ahead of the offense,

842
00:42:10,520 --> 00:42:12,320
Speaker 1: and I think Miami might go a little run heavier,

843
00:42:12,600 --> 00:42:14,960
Speaker 1: if you know, if Van Dyke isn't one hundred percent,

844
00:42:15,160 --> 00:42:17,080
Speaker 1: I think Clempson will lean on its ground games. I

845
00:42:17,080 --> 00:42:21,440
Speaker 1: think you'll have a little speedy clock here. I hope

846
00:42:21,480 --> 00:42:23,640
Speaker 1: Miami pulls it out though, so we can get more

847
00:42:23,680 --> 00:42:25,680
Speaker 1: Dabo clips. And they dropped to four and three.

848
00:42:26,280 --> 00:42:28,440
Speaker 4: You know, people, if you if you don't go undefeated,

849
00:42:28,520 --> 00:42:29,440
Speaker 4: your your losers.

850
00:42:29,520 --> 00:42:30,200
Speaker 1: You're terrible.

851
00:42:30,480 --> 00:42:32,640
Speaker 2: And it's just such a terrible mindset, you know.

852
00:42:32,680 --> 00:42:34,720
Speaker 4: And honestly, maybe we need to lose a few games

853
00:42:34,719 --> 00:42:37,200
Speaker 4: and lighten up bandwagon.

854
00:42:37,360 --> 00:42:39,399
Speaker 2: Sometimes the bandwagon get a little too full.

855
00:42:39,760 --> 00:42:42,480
Speaker 1: Also, I'm concerned a little bit about where where's Miami mentally?

856
00:42:42,560 --> 00:42:42,680
Speaker 2: Right.

857
00:42:42,719 --> 00:42:45,319
Speaker 1: We worried about them after the Georgia Tech game. Then

858
00:42:45,360 --> 00:42:47,279
Speaker 1: they lose to North Carolina, Like, this is a team

859
00:42:47,320 --> 00:42:50,960
Speaker 1: that was thinking about winning the ACC going to the

860
00:42:51,000 --> 00:42:54,200
Speaker 1: College Ball Playoff. Now they've dropped too straight. Can they

861
00:42:54,200 --> 00:42:56,600
Speaker 1: get up for Clemson? Like, even though it's at home,

862
00:42:57,160 --> 00:42:58,920
Speaker 1: Miami doesn't have a great home field advantage. It's not

863
00:42:58,920 --> 00:43:01,520
Speaker 1: like there's going to be this mat awesome crowd that

864
00:43:01,880 --> 00:43:07,160
Speaker 1: they can get hyped for. And let's check on Saturday,

865
00:43:07,800 --> 00:43:12,160
Speaker 1: ninety degrees and perfectly sunny in Miami, so you know,

866
00:43:12,719 --> 00:43:14,640
Speaker 1: even fewer people are going to the game, and they're

867
00:43:14,680 --> 00:43:18,719
Speaker 1: gonna be out about out tanning and drinking, so it's

868
00:43:18,760 --> 00:43:21,720
Speaker 1: not like they're picking thrive off the crowd so interested

869
00:43:21,719 --> 00:43:24,440
Speaker 1: to see where this Miami team is mentally, all right, let's.

870
00:43:24,239 --> 00:43:29,200
Speaker 2: Be one to the MAC. Sucks of Maction. Are you serious, Macs?

871
00:43:29,600 --> 00:43:32,600
Speaker 2: You gotta love it. Toledo at Mama Ohio.

872
00:43:32,920 --> 00:43:34,840
Speaker 1: Toledo's out to two and a half point favorite over

873
00:43:34,920 --> 00:43:37,240
Speaker 1: unders kicked down a bit of forty eight and a half.

874
00:43:37,680 --> 00:43:40,200
Speaker 1: I actually make Mima Ohio a small favorite here. It's

875
00:43:40,239 --> 00:43:42,560
Speaker 1: a huge game for my futures. I have mind Ohio

876
00:43:42,640 --> 00:43:44,680
Speaker 1: eight to one to win the MAC. They pretty much

877
00:43:44,680 --> 00:43:46,400
Speaker 1: just need to win one of the next two because

878
00:43:46,480 --> 00:43:49,719
Speaker 1: Ohio dropped one in their division. If they lose this

879
00:43:49,760 --> 00:43:51,600
Speaker 1: week and they went at Ohio, they should be in

880
00:43:51,640 --> 00:43:53,480
Speaker 1: good shape to get to the MAC Championship.

881
00:43:55,520 --> 00:43:57,040
Speaker 2: So I lean my Ohio in the number.

882
00:43:57,040 --> 00:43:58,960
Speaker 1: But I don't like the matchup this year. You were

883
00:43:59,040 --> 00:44:02,080
Speaker 1: able to run on Toledo and their run defense has

884
00:44:02,120 --> 00:44:04,279
Speaker 1: been worse than I thought it was going to be.

885
00:44:05,400 --> 00:44:08,520
Speaker 1: But my Ohio can't run the ball, so it's just

886
00:44:08,640 --> 00:44:11,040
Speaker 1: not a great matchup for them, which I think is

887
00:44:11,040 --> 00:44:14,080
Speaker 1: one of the reasons why Toledo has taken some money here.

888
00:44:14,120 --> 00:44:17,399
Speaker 1: What are your thoughts on a big one in the back.

889
00:44:18,440 --> 00:44:19,920
Speaker 2: I try to make every case in the world to

890
00:44:19,920 --> 00:44:22,280
Speaker 2: get on Miami Ohio. I believe our G five guys

891
00:44:22,320 --> 00:44:25,080
Speaker 2: are on Miami Ohio and then you got your future.

892
00:44:25,080 --> 00:44:27,680
Speaker 2: But I had a hard time making a case for

893
00:44:27,719 --> 00:44:30,279
Speaker 2: them Toledo. First off, Toledo hasn't played a soult Or

894
00:44:30,280 --> 00:44:33,000
Speaker 2: one hundred and twenty ninth and strike the schedule Illinois,

895
00:44:33,040 --> 00:44:36,479
Speaker 2: Texas State, San Jose, Western Michigan, Northern Illinois, U Mass

896
00:44:36,520 --> 00:44:38,560
Speaker 2: Ball State. Have they played anyone with a polls since

897
00:44:38,560 --> 00:44:39,680
Speaker 2: the beginning of September.

898
00:44:40,960 --> 00:44:44,000
Speaker 1: I mean, look, yeah, they And what's really concerning though,

899
00:44:44,120 --> 00:44:47,880
Speaker 1: is that because there's something that's just off with Toledo.

900
00:44:49,480 --> 00:44:51,319
Speaker 1: Like they they had to come back to beat San

901
00:44:51,400 --> 00:44:53,840
Speaker 1: Jose State, a bad Santaose's say team at home twenty

902
00:44:53,840 --> 00:44:58,640
Speaker 1: one to seventeen. They beat Northern Illinois by two at home,

903
00:44:59,520 --> 00:45:01,560
Speaker 1: and I it's an improving the Illinois team. And then

904
00:45:01,640 --> 00:45:05,040
Speaker 1: last week they beat Ball State thirteen to six. They're horrible,

905
00:45:05,760 --> 00:45:09,280
Speaker 1: So like, what something there's something, there's something off with Toledo.

906
00:45:09,320 --> 00:45:11,520
Speaker 1: I can't put my finger on it because like their

907
00:45:11,600 --> 00:45:13,920
Speaker 1: metrics outside of their run defense, which is struggled a

908
00:45:13,960 --> 00:45:16,520
Speaker 1: bit more than I thought, Like their metrics are fine,

909
00:45:16,560 --> 00:45:18,719
Speaker 1: but like there's just something off with them. And then

910
00:45:18,719 --> 00:45:25,880
Speaker 1: Miami with Ohio every week gets bet against, like they

911
00:45:25,880 --> 00:45:28,600
Speaker 1: get bet against it and then they cover I mean against,

912
00:45:29,239 --> 00:45:31,440
Speaker 1: so like they're actually going out and getting results. They

913
00:45:31,480 --> 00:45:35,839
Speaker 1: won at Sincy. You know, they played Miami. They've had

914
00:45:35,840 --> 00:45:38,600
Speaker 1: a slightly tougher schedule if you compare them. I mean,

915
00:45:38,600 --> 00:45:40,719
Speaker 1: they've also played Delaware State. But look they went they

916
00:45:40,719 --> 00:45:43,920
Speaker 1: beat Kent State by twenty They both played UMSS, took

917
00:45:43,920 --> 00:45:46,040
Speaker 1: care of business at UMSS. They beat Bowling Green twenty

918
00:45:46,040 --> 00:45:48,680
Speaker 1: seven to nothing. They went to Western Michigan won by

919
00:45:48,719 --> 00:45:51,720
Speaker 1: two touchdowns. But the market hates them and they're betting

920
00:45:51,719 --> 00:45:55,000
Speaker 1: against them again. But Toledo keeps not covering my Ohio

921
00:45:55,120 --> 00:45:56,759
Speaker 1: keeps covering. It's very bizarre.

922
00:45:57,400 --> 00:45:59,640
Speaker 2: So let let me run through this and you just

923
00:45:59,640 --> 00:46:01,640
Speaker 2: shoot hole through it. And because I haven't placed an

924
00:46:01,680 --> 00:46:03,279
Speaker 2: money down yet, but I do want to put money

925
00:46:03,280 --> 00:46:06,120
Speaker 2: on Toledo, so maybe you can change my mind. The

926
00:46:06,239 --> 00:46:09,680
Speaker 2: place to attack Miami is on the ground, because they're

927
00:46:09,680 --> 00:46:12,040
Speaker 2: bottom fifteen in line yards and stuff, right, and Penny

928
00:46:12,040 --> 00:46:15,040
Speaker 2: Boone averages four point two yards after contact. He's created

929
00:46:15,080 --> 00:46:17,600
Speaker 2: thirty miss tackles, and then when you go a little

930
00:46:17,600 --> 00:46:19,960
Speaker 2: bit deeper into the Red Hawk's numbers, they're one hundred

931
00:46:19,960 --> 00:46:22,160
Speaker 2: and six the broken tackles allowed. I mean, I think

932
00:46:22,200 --> 00:46:24,680
Speaker 2: Penny Boone is going to have a really big day.

933
00:46:25,239 --> 00:46:28,080
Speaker 2: There's a big finishing drives advantage for Toledo here against

934
00:46:28,080 --> 00:46:30,680
Speaker 2: the RedHawks defense. Now, of course, anytime I throw out

935
00:46:30,680 --> 00:46:33,319
Speaker 2: some Toledo love here, you could say schedule because it's

936
00:46:33,320 --> 00:46:36,720
Speaker 2: been pretty bad. But the place for Miami to attack

937
00:46:36,760 --> 00:46:38,799
Speaker 2: is also on the ground. Toledo's one hundredth and line

938
00:46:38,880 --> 00:46:42,240
Speaker 2: yard seventieth and success right against a very soft schedule.

939
00:46:42,480 --> 00:46:45,160
Speaker 2: And Rashaan Amos he doesn't really have the numbers of

940
00:46:45,200 --> 00:46:48,239
Speaker 2: Penny Boon. He's below three yards after contact, but he's

941
00:46:48,239 --> 00:46:51,759
Speaker 2: created fourteen miss tackles. He's averaged less than three yards

942
00:46:51,760 --> 00:46:53,800
Speaker 2: of carry the last two games against Western Michigan of

943
00:46:53,840 --> 00:46:56,239
Speaker 2: Bowling Green. So that really makes me nervous that it

944
00:46:56,239 --> 00:46:59,600
Speaker 2: seems like he is getting worse in efficiency. Is the

945
00:46:59,640 --> 00:47:01,359
Speaker 2: games go on and.

946
00:47:01,560 --> 00:47:04,399
Speaker 1: Miami's outside the top one hundred EPA per rush, Yeah, that.

947
00:47:04,400 --> 00:47:06,600
Speaker 2: Was my next thing. I mean, they're they're EPA is

948
00:47:06,680 --> 00:47:08,480
Speaker 2: just not there, and the Rockets are going to be

949
00:47:08,480 --> 00:47:10,799
Speaker 2: able to take advantage of that, so and then you

950
00:47:10,840 --> 00:47:13,319
Speaker 2: think you're gonna be able to throw well. Right now,

951
00:47:13,360 --> 00:47:16,560
Speaker 2: Toledo is tenth and coverage grading per PFF. So I

952
00:47:16,680 --> 00:47:19,080
Speaker 2: just I don't see it in the numbers that Miami

953
00:47:19,280 --> 00:47:22,560
Speaker 2: is heading, you know, worth a wager here over Toledo.

954
00:47:23,400 --> 00:47:24,839
Speaker 2: I guess that's why the spread is two and a half.

955
00:47:24,920 --> 00:47:27,000
Speaker 2: But I don't know. Everything I see is rockets. But

956
00:47:27,040 --> 00:47:29,440
Speaker 2: at the same time, the strength of schedules really sick.

957
00:47:30,680 --> 00:47:35,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, they look from a matchup perspective, it just favors

958
00:47:35,680 --> 00:47:39,720
Speaker 1: Toledo on how these two teams profile. But Miami's playing

959
00:47:39,760 --> 00:47:44,560
Speaker 1: at home with the better quarterback, and there's something off

960
00:47:44,600 --> 00:47:46,920
Speaker 1: with Toledo that I can't put my finger because even

961
00:47:46,920 --> 00:47:51,240
Speaker 1: with this bad schedule, they're like barely beating these bad teams.

962
00:47:51,560 --> 00:47:53,880
Speaker 1: So I don't know. I might throw Miama Ohigh on

963
00:47:53,960 --> 00:47:55,600
Speaker 1: a round robin. I'm gonna be ready for them for

964
00:47:55,680 --> 00:48:02,120
Speaker 1: the future, but matchup Toledo something missing with But something's

965
00:48:02,160 --> 00:48:05,280
Speaker 1: missing with them. Mayama Ohio has the better passing quarterback

966
00:48:05,320 --> 00:48:10,400
Speaker 1: at home and the better coach like Jason Gandal is terrible,

967
00:48:10,440 --> 00:48:12,359
Speaker 1: and he'll probably find a way to blow this game,

968
00:48:12,760 --> 00:48:14,440
Speaker 1: so tough handicap. Soh.

969
00:48:14,480 --> 00:48:16,239
Speaker 2: The other one I'm missing too is that mac home

970
00:48:16,280 --> 00:48:19,320
Speaker 2: teams unless your name is Accar and macome teams are dominating,

971
00:48:19,400 --> 00:48:21,360
Speaker 2: so I guess I forgot that one too, but that

972
00:48:21,600 --> 00:48:22,440
Speaker 2: goes against Toledo.

973
00:48:22,920 --> 00:48:24,360
Speaker 1: And as always, make sure you keep it one on

974
00:48:24,400 --> 00:48:26,960
Speaker 1: the weather this time of year for MATC games, but

975
00:48:27,040 --> 00:48:29,279
Speaker 1: keep it on the Action Network at as always where

976
00:48:29,280 --> 00:48:32,080
Speaker 1: you can follow us to see if we end up

977
00:48:32,160 --> 00:48:35,520
Speaker 1: with anything there. One final game Washington State, who's fell

978
00:48:35,560 --> 00:48:39,520
Speaker 1: off a cliff over the past two weeks. They've really

979
00:48:39,520 --> 00:48:42,719
Speaker 1: been humbled after a great start. They were dominated by

980
00:48:43,000 --> 00:48:45,880
Speaker 1: Utah despite excuse me, the UCLA, despite that final score

981
00:48:45,920 --> 00:48:51,000
Speaker 1: than last week. They got humiliated at home against Arizona.

982
00:48:51,080 --> 00:48:53,800
Speaker 1: I think forty five to six was the final score.

983
00:48:54,400 --> 00:48:57,040
Speaker 1: Oregon looking to bounce back from that tough loss against Washington.

984
00:48:57,040 --> 00:48:59,000
Speaker 1: They're laying nineteen and a half, taking a lot of

985
00:48:59,000 --> 00:49:04,080
Speaker 1: money here at home against Washington State. Over the totals

986
00:49:04,080 --> 00:49:05,239
Speaker 1: tipped up to sixty two and a half. Do you

987
00:49:05,280 --> 00:49:05,879
Speaker 1: have anything here?

988
00:49:07,280 --> 00:49:09,040
Speaker 2: I would love to play Oregon here, but it's just

989
00:49:09,120 --> 00:49:11,080
Speaker 2: a really bad spot. They're coming off the Washington game.

990
00:49:11,080 --> 00:49:13,480
Speaker 2: They got Utah up next. I mean Washington State is

991
00:49:13,560 --> 00:49:16,840
Speaker 2: quickly on the Southern miss corpse level right now. I

992
00:49:16,880 --> 00:49:19,919
Speaker 2: mean they are going down in flames. Wazoo just got

993
00:49:20,040 --> 00:49:24,520
Speaker 2: drummed at home to Arizona. After losing to UCLA. Arizona

994
00:49:24,600 --> 00:49:27,399
Speaker 2: nearly doubled the national average success rate on passing downs

995
00:49:27,440 --> 00:49:30,640
Speaker 2: against Wazoo. It's been very bad. And you know what

996
00:49:30,680 --> 00:49:32,600
Speaker 2: we said this, I don't know we profiled. I think

997
00:49:32,680 --> 00:49:34,600
Speaker 2: Washington State and like the Marquee games a couple of

998
00:49:34,600 --> 00:49:38,799
Speaker 2: weeks ago, and I said, where's cam Ward's turnovers? Like,

999
00:49:38,840 --> 00:49:40,640
Speaker 2: I'm used to forty of them a year. Where have

1000
00:49:40,680 --> 00:49:41,040
Speaker 2: they been?

1001
00:49:41,120 --> 00:49:41,359
Speaker 1: Well?

1002
00:49:41,760 --> 00:49:44,279
Speaker 2: Three? I INT's the last two games eight turnover worth

1003
00:49:44,320 --> 00:49:47,279
Speaker 2: he plays the last two games. That's not going to

1004
00:49:47,360 --> 00:49:49,399
Speaker 2: work against an Oregon team that is top twenty five

1005
00:49:49,440 --> 00:49:52,080
Speaker 2: in defensive havoc. Problem is I make this game lower

1006
00:49:52,120 --> 00:49:55,360
Speaker 2: than the twenty that's in the market, like Washington State is,

1007
00:49:55,400 --> 00:49:57,440
Speaker 2: Like it looks like they're done. They're causing a lot

1008
00:49:57,480 --> 00:50:00,000
Speaker 2: of turnovers. I think Dan Lannings pissed off about it.

1009
00:50:00,000 --> 00:50:02,200
Speaker 2: Everybody questioning his play calling, Like I could see this

1010
00:50:02,280 --> 00:50:04,759
Speaker 2: game getting out of hand and Ordon just run them

1011
00:50:04,840 --> 00:50:08,640
Speaker 2: up a flagpole. But the number is beyond what I have,

1012
00:50:08,880 --> 00:50:10,120
Speaker 2: and it's a really bad spot.

1013
00:50:10,840 --> 00:50:12,279
Speaker 1: I would agree that you see, like put the book

1014
00:50:12,280 --> 00:50:14,640
Speaker 1: out on how to slow this Washington State offense down.

1015
00:50:15,120 --> 00:50:19,480
Speaker 1: Before we move on to some trash. Your hogs got

1016
00:50:19,520 --> 00:50:21,759
Speaker 1: to get your thoughts on them. They are six and

1017
00:50:21,800 --> 00:50:23,920
Speaker 1: a half point favorites over under forty eight and a half.

1018
00:50:24,800 --> 00:50:27,120
Speaker 1: The thing here is that arkitell cannot run the ball

1019
00:50:27,160 --> 00:50:30,879
Speaker 1: at all. They're averaging under three yards per carry. They

1020
00:50:30,920 --> 00:50:35,400
Speaker 1: are one hundred and twelfth in rush success rate one

1021
00:50:35,480 --> 00:50:37,600
Speaker 1: hundred and first. They're also at the top one hundred

1022
00:50:37,640 --> 00:50:41,600
Speaker 1: and epa per rush and rush success rate. They can't

1023
00:50:41,640 --> 00:50:44,520
Speaker 1: run the ball at all, and Rocket Sanders health is

1024
00:50:44,560 --> 00:50:48,759
Speaker 1: in question. The good news is Mississippi State has been

1025
00:50:48,800 --> 00:50:51,600
Speaker 1: decent against the run, but they can't defend the past

1026
00:50:52,080 --> 00:50:55,719
Speaker 1: at all. Their secondary is hard. They are I have

1027
00:50:55,760 --> 00:51:01,239
Speaker 1: them bottom five nationally in defensive pass success rates. The

1028
00:51:01,320 --> 00:51:04,239
Speaker 1: question is does Arkansas bounce back? First of all, the

1029
00:51:04,280 --> 00:51:07,000
Speaker 1: spot like just does Arkansas? What do they have left

1030
00:51:07,040 --> 00:51:09,759
Speaker 1: in the tank because it's been a it's you know

1031
00:51:10,160 --> 00:51:14,080
Speaker 1: the spot we talked about earlier this season, Like Arkansas

1032
00:51:14,160 --> 00:51:19,200
Speaker 1: is one of the toughest stretches of schedules in the entirely,

1033
00:51:19,239 --> 00:51:23,319
Speaker 1: and they've gone Let's see, they played lost to BYU

1034
00:51:23,560 --> 00:51:27,200
Speaker 1: at home, a hard fought game. Next week, go to LSU,

1035
00:51:27,239 --> 00:51:30,960
Speaker 1: lose by three. Next week they're on a neutral against

1036
00:51:31,040 --> 00:51:34,600
Speaker 1: Texas A and M. Next week you're at at all

1037
00:51:34,680 --> 00:51:38,600
Speaker 1: miss lose by seven. The next week you're at Alabama

1038
00:51:39,040 --> 00:51:43,759
Speaker 1: lose by three. These are all brutal games, back to

1039
00:51:43,800 --> 00:51:47,279
Speaker 1: back to back to back weeks, in close games for

1040
00:51:47,320 --> 00:51:50,520
Speaker 1: the most part till the end. So ahead of their

1041
00:51:50,520 --> 00:51:53,160
Speaker 1: bye week, which they need desperately, what do they have

1042
00:51:53,239 --> 00:51:56,800
Speaker 1: left in the tank? Do they show up here after

1043
00:51:58,400 --> 00:52:02,040
Speaker 1: five straight losses against the Mississippi State team that's going

1044
00:52:02,080 --> 00:52:04,560
Speaker 1: to be more well rested, right, They're coming off thereby,

1045
00:52:05,320 --> 00:52:08,080
Speaker 1: which was much needed. And I think this basically boils

1046
00:52:08,080 --> 00:52:11,600
Speaker 1: down to can kJ make enough plays against this hard

1047
00:52:11,840 --> 00:52:14,319
Speaker 1: Mississippi State secondary? What do you see here?

1048
00:52:14,800 --> 00:52:19,319
Speaker 2: Whoo pig suey absolute dumpster fined, dumpster fine.

1049
00:52:19,360 --> 00:52:20,680
Speaker 1: I don't know how we win a game the rest

1050
00:52:20,719 --> 00:52:22,480
Speaker 1: of the year, just blowing program up.

1051
00:52:22,520 --> 00:52:28,279
Speaker 2: Give us a death sentence. Collins talking razorback football. He will.

1052
00:52:28,320 --> 00:52:30,000
Speaker 2: I think he straps the whole team on his back

1053
00:52:30,040 --> 00:52:32,759
Speaker 2: and gets the victory here, Sam coach Pittman comes out

1054
00:52:32,760 --> 00:52:36,160
Speaker 2: this week and says, this is a must win, and

1055
00:52:36,360 --> 00:52:38,200
Speaker 2: you know a lot of the beat reporters around here

1056
00:52:38,239 --> 00:52:40,240
Speaker 2: are saying, why are you putting this pressure on the players.

1057
00:52:40,280 --> 00:52:41,840
Speaker 2: He's like, if we want to go to a bowl,

1058
00:52:41,960 --> 00:52:44,359
Speaker 2: this is a must win. Three and five going into

1059
00:52:44,360 --> 00:52:46,440
Speaker 2: the bye week, we got to have it. But you know,

1060
00:52:46,520 --> 00:52:49,320
Speaker 2: I took Arkansas on open and then the injury report

1061
00:52:49,360 --> 00:52:51,359
Speaker 2: came out and it's sunk from seven down to five

1062
00:52:51,400 --> 00:52:53,960
Speaker 2: and a half. And we'll let to see who's going

1063
00:52:54,000 --> 00:52:55,799
Speaker 2: to play in this game. Rocket Sanders is out again.

1064
00:52:56,000 --> 00:52:59,040
Speaker 2: That's you know, in my opinion, Yeah, we lose the

1065
00:52:59,040 --> 00:53:00,680
Speaker 2: best running back on the team, and we can't throw that.

1066
00:53:00,760 --> 00:53:02,600
Speaker 2: We can't run the ball. But what does kJ do?

1067
00:53:02,680 --> 00:53:05,360
Speaker 2: He throws on almost every down. He's getting more comfortable

1068
00:53:05,360 --> 00:53:08,919
Speaker 2: with his receivers, Isaiah Satanna Armstrong, a lot of guys

1069
00:53:08,920 --> 00:53:11,439
Speaker 2: out there he's getting comfortable with. So this is going

1070
00:53:11,520 --> 00:53:14,600
Speaker 2: to be an exclusive passing attack out of Arkansas and kJ,

1071
00:53:14,680 --> 00:53:17,279
Speaker 2: which is a good thing against Mississippi State. I was

1072
00:53:17,280 --> 00:53:19,760
Speaker 2: happy with that. But when you look on the defensive

1073
00:53:19,800 --> 00:53:22,840
Speaker 2: side of the ball, Chris Paul, who they call pooh,

1074
00:53:22,880 --> 00:53:27,360
Speaker 2: he is questionable. He's the best coverage defender corner Dwight mcglothern.

1075
00:53:27,600 --> 00:53:30,480
Speaker 2: They call him Nudy. He's limited. Opposite of him is

1076
00:53:30,520 --> 00:53:34,759
Speaker 2: corner Jalen Braxon. He's questionable for this game. I mean,

1077
00:53:34,800 --> 00:53:37,439
Speaker 2: there's just there's so many injuries on the defensive side

1078
00:53:37,440 --> 00:53:39,640
Speaker 2: of the ball that if Mississipi State's going to get

1079
00:53:39,680 --> 00:53:42,120
Speaker 2: it together and score some points, it could be this game.

1080
00:53:42,520 --> 00:53:46,000
Speaker 2: Arkansas does allow a healthy amount of explosives. They're actually

1081
00:53:46,000 --> 00:53:48,440
Speaker 2: pretty good down to down in success rate, but they

1082
00:53:48,480 --> 00:53:52,520
Speaker 2: allow too many explosives. And Missippi State is top forty

1083
00:53:52,520 --> 00:53:54,359
Speaker 2: both rush and pass EPA, so I think they're going

1084
00:53:54,400 --> 00:53:56,360
Speaker 2: to be able to keep up here. But at the

1085
00:53:56,400 --> 00:53:59,080
Speaker 2: same time, Missippi State is one hundred and thirty first

1086
00:53:59,160 --> 00:54:02,960
Speaker 2: defensive finishing drives and they allow a ton of pass explosives.

1087
00:54:03,320 --> 00:54:06,240
Speaker 2: kJ Jefferson is going to have a field day against

1088
00:54:06,239 --> 00:54:09,160
Speaker 2: this defense. They're going to get lots of points up

1089
00:54:09,160 --> 00:54:11,760
Speaker 2: on the board. The question is can they stop explosives

1090
00:54:11,760 --> 00:54:14,359
Speaker 2: Mississippi State. I say yes, I'm on the Arkansas side.

1091
00:54:14,440 --> 00:54:17,960
Speaker 2: It's a must win. It is, you know, round everybody

1092
00:54:18,080 --> 00:54:20,359
Speaker 2: up and get ready because we have to have this game.

1093
00:54:20,400 --> 00:54:21,480
Speaker 2: I expect them to cover.

1094
00:54:23,640 --> 00:54:29,000
Speaker 1: All right, let's move on to some trash.

1095
00:54:29,680 --> 00:54:33,200
Speaker 2: The trash man pick of the week. I'm the trash man.

1096
00:54:33,520 --> 00:54:36,720
Speaker 2: Just throw me the trash, your garbage, and you know it.

1097
00:54:36,880 --> 00:54:40,399
Speaker 1: Totally unreliable, undependable it. That's it. You've been told off.

1098
00:54:40,400 --> 00:54:40,920
Speaker 1: How do you like that?

1099
00:54:41,360 --> 00:54:42,560
Speaker 2: Good? All right?

1100
00:54:42,560 --> 00:54:44,920
Speaker 1: I got six piece of trash here. I'll go through

1101
00:54:44,960 --> 00:54:47,480
Speaker 1: them rapid fire. You tell me if you agree or disagree,

1102
00:54:47,520 --> 00:54:51,120
Speaker 1: and feel free to add anything. Let's start Michigan State

1103
00:54:51,320 --> 00:54:53,759
Speaker 1: plus twenty four and a half against Michigan I make

1104
00:54:53,800 --> 00:54:57,000
Speaker 1: this line closer to twenty. I mean, look, Michigan State

1105
00:54:57,080 --> 00:55:00,879
Speaker 1: is bad, bad, but they've played them rutal schedule. They've

1106
00:55:00,880 --> 00:55:04,120
Speaker 1: lost four games against teams with a combined twenty two

1107
00:55:04,160 --> 00:55:13,160
Speaker 1: and five record. Meanwhile, Michigan seven I O. They played ECU, UNLV, Bowling, Green, Rutgers, Nebraska, Minnesota.

1108
00:55:12,640 --> 00:55:13,280
Speaker 2: And Indiana.

1109
00:55:13,920 --> 00:55:18,160
Speaker 1: I mean, good god, they've played nobody. They've benefited from

1110
00:55:18,160 --> 00:55:21,839
Speaker 1: tons of turnovers and fourth down variants, which has led

1111
00:55:21,880 --> 00:55:23,960
Speaker 1: to them winning every game by at least twenty five points.

1112
00:55:24,000 --> 00:55:26,759
Speaker 1: But it's still a methodical offense. Michigan State defense playing

1113
00:55:26,800 --> 00:55:28,960
Speaker 1: better lately. I liked what I saw from Howser in

1114
00:55:29,000 --> 00:55:32,759
Speaker 1: his first start, he's better than Kim. A big rivalry game,

1115
00:55:33,560 --> 00:55:36,480
Speaker 1: I think Michigan State here will throw everything they have

1116
00:55:36,960 --> 00:55:42,200
Speaker 1: at Michigan. There's only been in this rivalry. We've only

1117
00:55:42,360 --> 00:55:47,440
Speaker 1: seen what three times it spread has been over three touchdowns.

1118
00:55:47,480 --> 00:55:49,719
Speaker 1: Michigan State covered all three and one to one outright,

1119
00:55:50,440 --> 00:55:52,719
Speaker 1: So yeah, I like Spartire. I think the perception would

1120
00:55:52,719 --> 00:55:54,319
Speaker 1: be different if they were able to hold on.

1121
00:55:54,360 --> 00:55:55,520
Speaker 2: They could have beat.

1122
00:55:55,320 --> 00:55:58,000
Speaker 1: Iowa two weeks ago and special teams butonters, and they

1123
00:55:58,000 --> 00:55:59,799
Speaker 1: could have beat Rutgers if they didn't have two special teams.

1124
00:56:00,160 --> 00:56:02,520
Speaker 1: They're outscored thirty four to nothing in the first fourth

1125
00:56:02,600 --> 00:56:05,479
Speaker 1: quarter of both those games after holding both those teams

1126
00:56:05,480 --> 00:56:08,239
Speaker 1: at thirteen and six through three quarters. So defense is

1127
00:56:08,239 --> 00:56:13,640
Speaker 1: playing better. This line's inflated. This is basically Michigan State

1128
00:56:13,719 --> 00:56:17,399
Speaker 1: super Bowl. Any any this is everything they have, they'll

1129
00:56:17,400 --> 00:56:18,920
Speaker 1: throw out them. I think this line's too high for

1130
00:56:18,960 --> 00:56:22,719
Speaker 1: a methodical Michigan offense. Just got to they don't fis shortfields.

1131
00:56:23,080 --> 00:56:25,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is the super Bowl for every single coaching

1132
00:56:25,160 --> 00:56:27,320
Speaker 2: player on the Michigan State staff. You gotta take Michigan

1133
00:56:27,360 --> 00:56:28,680
Speaker 2: State at twenty four to twenty four and a half.

1134
00:56:28,680 --> 00:56:29,000
Speaker 1: I'm with you.

1135
00:56:29,080 --> 00:56:30,200
Speaker 2: I make the game nineteen and a half.

1136
00:56:30,239 --> 00:56:31,759
Speaker 1: It's too high.

1137
00:56:31,840 --> 00:56:33,120
Speaker 2: Let's go Arizona State.

1138
00:56:34,080 --> 00:56:36,640
Speaker 1: Sun Devil's great spot here.

1139
00:56:36,800 --> 00:56:37,800
Speaker 2: To plug your nose.

1140
00:56:38,400 --> 00:56:41,920
Speaker 1: It's stinks they've taken some money. Let me see where

1141
00:56:41,960 --> 00:56:44,040
Speaker 1: it sits now. I played some twenty eight and a half,

1142
00:56:44,239 --> 00:56:46,200
Speaker 1: which obviously matters. It's twenty seven a half. I still

1143
00:56:46,239 --> 00:56:47,960
Speaker 1: like it a twenty seven and a half. So Washington's

1144
00:56:48,000 --> 00:56:52,240
Speaker 1: off that huge emotional win over Oregon and Arizona State's

1145
00:56:52,239 --> 00:56:54,799
Speaker 1: coming off of a bye just a great situational spot

1146
00:56:54,840 --> 00:56:56,760
Speaker 1: they needed to buy. They dealt with as much injuries,

1147
00:56:56,800 --> 00:56:59,040
Speaker 1: as many injuries as any team in the country. I

1148
00:56:59,040 --> 00:57:01,719
Speaker 1: think their market ratings still a little bit too deflated

1149
00:57:02,080 --> 00:57:03,960
Speaker 1: because early in the season they were disaster with all

1150
00:57:03,960 --> 00:57:05,319
Speaker 1: the injuries, and they were I mean, they lost like

1151
00:57:05,360 --> 00:57:09,800
Speaker 1: thirty eight nothing to frizzone at eight turnovers. But look, Washington,

1152
00:57:09,840 --> 00:57:11,479
Speaker 1: they were out gaining by like one hundred and fifty yards.

1153
00:57:11,480 --> 00:57:15,480
Speaker 1: So last week against Oregon, their defense still has some holes,

1154
00:57:15,520 --> 00:57:17,320
Speaker 1: their offense still has some issues in the red zone.

1155
00:57:18,360 --> 00:57:20,640
Speaker 1: They might come out a bit flat here. I think

1156
00:57:20,680 --> 00:57:23,320
Speaker 1: Arizona State a team that can't go to a bowl.

1157
00:57:23,360 --> 00:57:25,720
Speaker 1: You've seen them already in these bigger games against Colorado

1158
00:57:25,840 --> 00:57:27,960
Speaker 1: USC like these are their super bowls. These are their

1159
00:57:27,960 --> 00:57:31,320
Speaker 1: bowl games, so their offensive played better of late. The

1160
00:57:31,400 --> 00:57:33,920
Speaker 1: strength of their team is in the secondary. That's important

1161
00:57:33,920 --> 00:57:37,600
Speaker 1: Against Washington. Sun Devils also ranked dead last and turnover

1162
00:57:37,640 --> 00:57:40,680
Speaker 1: margin bottom ten and opponent fourth down conversion rate and

1163
00:57:40,800 --> 00:57:43,280
Speaker 1: been the unluckiest teams in terms of field position. There's

1164
00:57:43,360 --> 00:57:47,680
Speaker 1: some positive variants coming for them, So I like Arizona State.

1165
00:57:47,920 --> 00:57:50,080
Speaker 1: Washington might be sleepy Pennis a little banged up, so

1166
00:57:50,120 --> 00:57:52,880
Speaker 1: you might pull him a little earlier, might not use

1167
00:57:52,920 --> 00:57:55,200
Speaker 1: him as much. Let's just get the win here. Who

1168
00:57:55,240 --> 00:57:58,560
Speaker 1: cares about the margin For what it's worth. Since two

1169
00:57:58,560 --> 00:58:01,360
Speaker 1: thousand and five, Arizona State and two against the spread

1170
00:58:01,440 --> 00:58:04,040
Speaker 1: seventy one and a half percent as a double digit underdog,

1171
00:58:04,520 --> 00:58:08,240
Speaker 1: covering by over a touchdown per game, the most profitable

1172
00:58:08,240 --> 00:58:11,040
Speaker 1: team in the country as a double digit dog over

1173
00:58:11,080 --> 00:58:13,600
Speaker 1: the past twenty seasons. It includes two and o this

1174
00:58:13,680 --> 00:58:17,600
Speaker 1: year against USC and CAL. I like the Sun Devils forks.

1175
00:58:17,360 --> 00:58:19,760
Speaker 2: Up, yeah here on your own on this one. If

1176
00:58:19,760 --> 00:58:22,680
Speaker 2: you were gonna give me a spot where Washington has

1177
00:58:22,800 --> 00:58:24,400
Speaker 2: too many points in the market, which I don't think

1178
00:58:24,440 --> 00:58:26,160
Speaker 2: they do. I think numbers should be twenty nine. I

1179
00:58:26,200 --> 00:58:29,240
Speaker 2: do understand it's a bad spot for Washington, but give

1180
00:58:29,240 --> 00:58:31,480
Speaker 2: me a team, Give me an opponent that has a

1181
00:58:31,520 --> 00:58:33,760
Speaker 2: pulse on the ground, that can run the ball and

1182
00:58:33,880 --> 00:58:35,960
Speaker 2: take the ball out of Michael Pennock's hands that is

1183
00:58:35,960 --> 00:58:39,160
Speaker 2: not Arizona State. Arizona State does not have the explosives

1184
00:58:39,160 --> 00:58:40,600
Speaker 2: in the run game. They have a little bit better

1185
00:58:40,600 --> 00:58:43,960
Speaker 2: explosives in the past game, but the Huskies defense strength

1186
00:58:44,120 --> 00:58:45,680
Speaker 2: is in the secondary. So I will let you go

1187
00:58:45,760 --> 00:58:46,760
Speaker 2: this one on by yourself.

1188
00:58:48,320 --> 00:58:53,240
Speaker 1: Let's go Indiana against Rutgers. There's too many points. I mean, look,

1189
00:58:53,280 --> 00:58:55,280
Speaker 1: Rutgers has kind of off to a good start, but

1190
00:58:56,600 --> 00:58:58,320
Speaker 1: now that you grassed and the win basically by a

1191
00:58:58,320 --> 00:59:03,680
Speaker 1: touchdown on the road. Look, they've their strength of schedule

1192
00:59:03,720 --> 00:59:07,320
Speaker 1: has been below national average. Meanwhile, Indiana played one of

1193
00:59:07,320 --> 00:59:10,120
Speaker 1: the toughest schedules in the country. They played Michigan, Louisville,

1194
00:59:10,160 --> 00:59:13,320
Speaker 1: Ohio State, and Maryland already. I mean that is as

1195
00:59:13,400 --> 00:59:17,120
Speaker 1: brutal as it gets. So you know, and again, this

1196
00:59:17,320 --> 00:59:21,160
Speaker 1: Rutgers team needed a miracle to beat Michigan State. They've

1197
00:59:21,160 --> 00:59:25,840
Speaker 1: played but Wagner Temple, Virginia Tech, Northwestern, and Michigan State like,

1198
00:59:25,880 --> 00:59:31,520
Speaker 1: come on, those are their wins. So this offense is

1199
00:59:31,560 --> 00:59:34,200
Speaker 1: still bad. I mean, it's a horrendous offense. This totals

1200
00:59:34,200 --> 00:59:37,160
Speaker 1: out of thirty nine. You gotta take the points to

1201
00:59:37,240 --> 00:59:38,960
Speaker 1: the first time Mark Rutgers is a road favorite of

1202
00:59:39,040 --> 00:59:40,760
Speaker 1: more than a field goal since joining the Big Ten.

1203
00:59:41,720 --> 00:59:45,040
Speaker 1: Indiana showed some things last week to the fresher team here.

1204
00:59:47,160 --> 00:59:51,000
Speaker 1: I'll take I'll take Indiana here. Bline's too I I mean, I'm.

1205
00:59:50,880 --> 00:59:53,880
Speaker 2: Not going to disagree. I will say the market agrees

1206
00:59:53,920 --> 00:59:56,360
Speaker 2: with you. It's coming down off of the opener, so

1207
00:59:56,400 --> 00:59:58,560
Speaker 2: I would probably get it before it goes down any further.

1208
00:59:58,840 --> 01:00:01,520
Speaker 2: I am questionable and whether I'm going to be on

1209
01:00:01,520 --> 01:00:01,920
Speaker 2: this with you.

1210
01:00:02,720 --> 01:00:05,000
Speaker 1: There's a schedule plaid, there's your schedule clad. I know,

1211
01:00:05,360 --> 01:00:07,600
Speaker 1: I know brdal schedule also brutal fumble.

1212
01:00:07,680 --> 01:00:11,040
Speaker 2: Luck. I talked to you about this off camera, right.

1213
01:00:11,400 --> 01:00:13,560
Speaker 2: The problem is when I take these dogs on the

1214
01:00:13,600 --> 01:00:16,800
Speaker 2: eleven AM Central, you know, the Jefferson Pilot time slot,

1215
01:00:16,840 --> 01:00:18,920
Speaker 2: they don't pull off as many upsets as they do

1216
01:00:18,960 --> 01:00:21,919
Speaker 2: at four or five nine pm. These damn eleven Am

1217
01:00:21,960 --> 01:00:23,480
Speaker 2: dogs are killing us sometimes.

1218
01:00:24,720 --> 01:00:27,560
Speaker 1: Well, then you are not going to like my next

1219
01:00:27,560 --> 01:00:30,960
Speaker 1: two plays, which are both at noon eastern eleven am

1220
01:00:31,000 --> 01:00:34,080
Speaker 1: your time. UCF plus eighteen and a half against Oklahoma.

1221
01:00:34,240 --> 01:00:36,439
Speaker 1: This line's way too high. I mean, look, we're talking

1222
01:00:36,440 --> 01:00:38,760
Speaker 1: about a UCF team which now should be close to

1223
01:00:38,800 --> 01:00:41,880
Speaker 1: one hundred percent coming off the bye. Plumbly, I'm hearing

1224
01:00:41,960 --> 01:00:45,800
Speaker 1: is ninety five hundred percent. His legs are paramount to

1225
01:00:45,880 --> 01:00:46,520
Speaker 1: this offense.

1226
01:00:47,080 --> 01:00:47,920
Speaker 2: But we're talking.

1227
01:00:47,720 --> 01:00:52,560
Speaker 1: About a team that was what a six point dog

1228
01:00:53,240 --> 01:00:58,640
Speaker 1: at Kansas State without Plumbly a couple of weeks ago. Oh,

1229
01:00:58,720 --> 01:01:03,840
Speaker 1: Oklahoma is not two touchdowns better than Kansas State. I'm sorry,

1230
01:01:04,360 --> 01:01:06,480
Speaker 1: and I know Oklahoma has covered every game. They've won

1231
01:01:06,520 --> 01:01:09,560
Speaker 1: every game. It could have easily lost to Texas without

1232
01:01:09,560 --> 01:01:13,280
Speaker 1: some time management, boxing and three to zero turnover advantage

1233
01:01:13,280 --> 01:01:16,120
Speaker 1: in a goal line stand. They also struggle with Sincy,

1234
01:01:16,200 --> 01:01:19,360
Speaker 1: who's been horrendous ever since. They were up by three

1235
01:01:19,360 --> 01:01:21,880
Speaker 1: against SMU in the fourth quarter with ten to go

1236
01:01:23,640 --> 01:01:26,600
Speaker 1: day benefited for some great turnover luck. I think a

1237
01:01:26,680 --> 01:01:30,120
Speaker 1: running quarterback can give this Kids of Oklahoma defense in trouble.

1238
01:01:30,160 --> 01:01:32,600
Speaker 1: Oaklhom is also going to be without their leading receiver

1239
01:01:33,040 --> 01:01:34,720
Speaker 1: for the rest of the season, in Anthony. They don't

1240
01:01:34,760 --> 01:01:38,920
Speaker 1: have a lot of depth at that position, so this

1241
01:01:39,000 --> 01:01:40,760
Speaker 1: is this line's way too high for what it's worth.

1242
01:01:40,800 --> 01:01:43,120
Speaker 1: Malsan twelve and four against the spread, with ten or

1243
01:01:43,160 --> 01:01:45,520
Speaker 1: more days to prepare an opponent, prepare for an opponent

1244
01:01:45,520 --> 01:01:48,760
Speaker 1: in his career covering by ten points per game. Give

1245
01:01:48,760 --> 01:01:49,520
Speaker 1: me the Knights.

1246
01:01:50,560 --> 01:01:54,360
Speaker 2: Can we get Venables to pull a stoops where he's

1247
01:01:54,400 --> 01:01:56,120
Speaker 2: like at eleven am, we'll all be drunk and in

1248
01:01:56,160 --> 01:01:58,760
Speaker 2: the stadium ready to go. Because Venables has been complaining

1249
01:01:58,800 --> 01:02:00,160
Speaker 2: about poor crowds and early care.

1250
01:02:00,600 --> 01:02:03,240
Speaker 4: We expect the best from everybody else, supporting the program

1251
01:02:03,320 --> 01:02:05,680
Speaker 4: the right way, no matter what the temperature is, what

1252
01:02:05,840 --> 01:02:08,240
Speaker 4: time it is. Okay, when it's not giving me oh yeah,

1253
01:02:08,280 --> 01:02:10,040
Speaker 4: we want to tell gate all day? Well, sorry, we

1254
01:02:10,080 --> 01:02:13,080
Speaker 4: played eleven okay, show up, show up.

1255
01:02:13,640 --> 01:02:15,600
Speaker 2: I'm with you. I got money down earlier this week

1256
01:02:15,640 --> 01:02:17,400
Speaker 2: when we knew that John Race Plumley was going to

1257
01:02:17,400 --> 01:02:20,360
Speaker 2: be back, I make the number fifteen with Plumblee in

1258
01:02:20,400 --> 01:02:22,800
Speaker 2: the lineup. So in the time you and I have

1259
01:02:22,840 --> 01:02:24,600
Speaker 2: been podcasting over an hour, we've seen this thing go

1260
01:02:24,680 --> 01:02:27,160
Speaker 2: from eighteen eighteen and a half down to US seventeen

1261
01:02:27,200 --> 01:02:30,040
Speaker 2: a flat seventeen. So you should still be buying UCF

1262
01:02:30,080 --> 01:02:33,160
Speaker 2: at seventeen. You know at your I've vided for less

1263
01:02:33,160 --> 01:02:35,640
Speaker 2: at sixteen sixteen and a half, but definitely numbers too high.

1264
01:02:35,800 --> 01:02:39,760
Speaker 1: Another noon dog for you. We've going Navy Navy plus.

1265
01:02:39,880 --> 01:02:43,400
Speaker 1: Anything over ten is fine here in the first leg

1266
01:02:43,480 --> 01:02:46,560
Speaker 1: of the Commander in Chiefs in the battle for the

1267
01:02:46,560 --> 01:02:49,400
Speaker 1: Commander in Chiefs Trophy this season. And guess what, it's

1268
01:02:49,400 --> 01:02:54,800
Speaker 1: the first game between service academies under the new clock rules.

1269
01:02:55,280 --> 01:02:59,280
Speaker 1: Dogs are going to be appetizing. I'm telling you the dogs.

1270
01:02:59,280 --> 01:03:02,120
Speaker 1: We are already appating double digit dogs. These two teams

1271
01:03:02,160 --> 01:03:04,000
Speaker 1: are the slowest in the country and they have the

1272
01:03:04,040 --> 01:03:06,680
Speaker 1: highest rush rates in the country. Air Force will be

1273
01:03:06,720 --> 01:03:09,920
Speaker 1: without their starting quarterback, and they've been the most explosive

1274
01:03:10,000 --> 01:03:12,920
Speaker 1: passing offense in the country. Now you're going to Jensen

1275
01:03:13,040 --> 01:03:15,280
Speaker 1: Jones all it is going to be triple options. If

1276
01:03:15,320 --> 01:03:17,400
Speaker 1: they're gonna run, he doesn't throw, I mean, maybe it'll

1277
01:03:17,400 --> 01:03:20,000
Speaker 1: take a couple of shots. Navy has quarterback injury questions

1278
01:03:20,000 --> 01:03:22,240
Speaker 1: as well. But I actually like what I did drop

1279
01:03:22,240 --> 01:03:23,560
Speaker 1: off as it is big, and I actually like what

1280
01:03:23,600 --> 01:03:26,480
Speaker 1: I saw from the freshman Brax and Woodson last week.

1281
01:03:26,960 --> 01:03:29,440
Speaker 1: Lavata still might go We'll see you have to Xavier

1282
01:03:29,520 --> 01:03:32,280
Speaker 1: r Line as well, but There's.

1283
01:03:32,160 --> 01:03:33,280
Speaker 2: A ton of familiarity here.

1284
01:03:33,520 --> 01:03:36,040
Speaker 1: There could be like six possessions total in this game.

1285
01:03:36,080 --> 01:03:38,560
Speaker 1: You could have a quarter go by with one team

1286
01:03:38,880 --> 01:03:41,439
Speaker 1: having the whole ball. I mean, I'm taking the double.

1287
01:03:41,640 --> 01:03:43,040
Speaker 1: I mean air Force has been great. They're six to

1288
01:03:43,040 --> 01:03:45,680
Speaker 1: no for the first time since two thousand and two.

1289
01:03:45,760 --> 01:03:48,400
Speaker 1: I believe they're ranked playing their first game. Is a

1290
01:03:48,480 --> 01:03:53,439
Speaker 1: ranked team since twenty ten. But sell out crowd in Napolis,

1291
01:03:53,720 --> 01:03:56,600
Speaker 1: you know, early kick for air Force going across country.

1292
01:03:57,400 --> 01:03:59,360
Speaker 1: Navy knows how to defend the triple option. That's what

1293
01:03:59,400 --> 01:04:04,040
Speaker 1: they're going to get year and like against another team

1294
01:04:04,080 --> 01:04:05,800
Speaker 1: that can't throw the ball in Charlotte, maybe just pitch

1295
01:04:05,920 --> 01:04:09,480
Speaker 1: the shutout. They also did that against Wagner, another passivers team.

1296
01:04:09,960 --> 01:04:12,080
Speaker 1: They can defend teams that just that can only run it.

1297
01:04:12,160 --> 01:04:12,560
Speaker 2: They know it.

1298
01:04:12,600 --> 01:04:16,160
Speaker 1: There's so much familiarity here. Just headbudding. I mean last

1299
01:04:16,200 --> 01:04:19,000
Speaker 1: year the air Force two touchdown favorite at home, they

1300
01:04:19,040 --> 01:04:23,360
Speaker 1: only won by three maybe once this game. They've lost

1301
01:04:23,400 --> 01:04:27,320
Speaker 1: three straight in the series. Service academies eighty seven seventy

1302
01:04:27,320 --> 01:04:28,920
Speaker 1: and five against the spread when catching more than a

1303
01:04:28,920 --> 01:04:31,800
Speaker 1: touchdown since two thousand and five. This totals went given

1304
01:04:31,800 --> 01:04:33,920
Speaker 1: down a thirty six and a half. You gotta take

1305
01:04:33,920 --> 01:04:36,040
Speaker 1: the double digits with Navy.

1306
01:04:36,080 --> 01:04:39,760
Speaker 2: Did Air Force cover against sam Houston? They did not. Ope,

1307
01:04:41,360 --> 01:04:43,600
Speaker 2: they didn't cover a double digit spread, did it right?

1308
01:04:44,560 --> 01:04:47,680
Speaker 1: No? And look, and they didn't cover against Wyoming. Air

1309
01:04:47,680 --> 01:04:51,240
Speaker 1: Force has started out six and oh they've beat They

1310
01:04:51,280 --> 01:04:52,840
Speaker 1: placed one of the easiest schedules of the country. I've

1311
01:04:52,840 --> 01:04:57,960
Speaker 1: had like one sixty. They beat Rob Morris, Sam Houston.

1312
01:04:59,400 --> 01:05:03,640
Speaker 1: You tossed San Jose State, San Diego State. All these

1313
01:05:03,680 --> 01:05:05,080
Speaker 1: teams are really bad at the funding the runt too.

1314
01:05:05,440 --> 01:05:08,600
Speaker 1: N Wyoming Moeman's out there leading rusher and they respect him.

1315
01:05:08,640 --> 01:05:11,600
Speaker 1: Was tied to two to go. They've been double digit

1316
01:05:11,640 --> 01:05:13,440
Speaker 1: favorites in five of those games. They played five of

1317
01:05:13,440 --> 01:05:17,120
Speaker 1: them at home. I mean, this just schedule is going

1318
01:05:17,160 --> 01:05:18,520
Speaker 1: a joke. They win this game, they can stick it.

1319
01:05:18,680 --> 01:05:22,000
Speaker 1: They could go undefeated for what it's forth. They have

1320
01:05:22,040 --> 01:05:25,880
Speaker 1: an easy schedule. But I like Navy here, no, I.

1321
01:05:25,800 --> 01:05:28,240
Speaker 2: Mean Air Force. When they've played other teams with a

1322
01:05:28,280 --> 01:05:31,360
Speaker 2: slow pace that you get. For them to cover a

1323
01:05:31,400 --> 01:05:33,520
Speaker 2: double digit spread is really hard. I think the one

1324
01:05:33,520 --> 01:05:35,240
Speaker 2: thing that I could not get my eyeballs off of

1325
01:05:35,880 --> 01:05:38,160
Speaker 2: Air Force one hundred and thirty first in strength of schedule.

1326
01:05:38,440 --> 01:05:41,280
Speaker 1: Keep an eye out on for Riley Reafman to the

1327
01:05:41,360 --> 01:05:43,880
Speaker 1: punter for Naves having a hell of a season.

1328
01:05:44,320 --> 01:05:46,360
Speaker 2: When you have two service academies go at each other.

1329
01:05:46,400 --> 01:05:48,920
Speaker 2: I go immediately to the stuff rate air Force defensively

1330
01:05:48,960 --> 01:05:51,720
Speaker 2: one hundred and fifth and defensive stuff rate that is

1331
01:05:51,760 --> 01:05:57,920
Speaker 2: crazy against the schedule they've played, so yeah, maybe sales.

1332
01:05:57,680 --> 01:06:12,520
Speaker 1: A seventh seas all right, and then the last one

1333
01:06:12,760 --> 01:06:15,520
Speaker 1: we're gonna go with Minnesota against Iowa.

1334
01:06:15,760 --> 01:06:17,680
Speaker 2: Can't believe you're doing this. I can't believe we're talking

1335
01:06:17,680 --> 01:06:18,400
Speaker 2: about this game.

1336
01:06:19,320 --> 01:06:21,720
Speaker 1: I'm selling high on ie with this HIOA teams put

1337
01:06:21,720 --> 01:06:24,280
Speaker 1: by the way's playing. It's eighth straight game against the Minnesota.

1338
01:06:24,320 --> 01:06:26,920
Speaker 1: They have no buys and their defense got to be exhausted.

1339
01:06:26,960 --> 01:06:28,840
Speaker 1: They're on the field the whole game against the Minnesota

1340
01:06:28,880 --> 01:06:31,200
Speaker 1: team coming off of a bye, should be much fresher,

1341
01:06:31,880 --> 01:06:35,080
Speaker 1: much healthier, should get their running back Daris Taylor back

1342
01:06:35,760 --> 01:06:37,640
Speaker 1: he's missed the past two games, and their best linebacker,

1343
01:06:37,640 --> 01:06:39,840
Speaker 1: Cody Lindenbergh. I think he's gonna make his season debut.

1344
01:06:41,480 --> 01:06:44,080
Speaker 1: I mean, look, Minnesota's two losses against undfeated North Carolina

1345
01:06:44,120 --> 01:06:45,920
Speaker 1: and Michigan, and then they blew up twenty one point

1346
01:06:46,000 --> 01:06:48,480
Speaker 1: lead to Northwestern. You can run on this Iowa team

1347
01:06:48,480 --> 01:06:50,120
Speaker 1: if you look at their underlying metrics. I think that

1348
01:06:50,160 --> 01:06:52,440
Speaker 1: and that's all Minnesota wants to do. As a snail

1349
01:06:52,680 --> 01:06:55,720
Speaker 1: their snail and they want to run the Greek rifle.

1350
01:06:55,800 --> 01:06:58,560
Speaker 1: He's not really He's more like a Greek war uh

1351
01:06:58,800 --> 01:07:04,480
Speaker 1: you know water. But this Iowa team, they should not

1352
01:07:04,520 --> 01:07:06,880
Speaker 1: be laying points to anybody. This is the worst offense

1353
01:07:06,920 --> 01:07:09,480
Speaker 1: in the country. I mean, they're dead last and success rate.

1354
01:07:10,120 --> 01:07:12,720
Speaker 1: They they have a backup quarterback. Now. They had two

1355
01:07:12,760 --> 01:07:16,240
Speaker 1: reliable weapons, Luke Lache at tight end and then Eric All.

1356
01:07:16,280 --> 01:07:18,680
Speaker 1: They're both out for the year now. Eric Hall led

1357
01:07:18,680 --> 01:07:20,960
Speaker 1: the team last week with a wopping two catches for

1358
01:07:21,080 --> 01:07:25,280
Speaker 1: nineteen yards. Deacon Hillson's taking over his starter twenty three

1359
01:07:25,280 --> 01:07:28,320
Speaker 1: of sixty two thirty seven percent for two hundred and

1360
01:07:28,320 --> 01:07:31,800
Speaker 1: sixty yards in three games. Iowa was outgained in those

1361
01:07:31,840 --> 01:07:33,520
Speaker 1: three games by fifty two to ninety five and one

1362
01:07:33,600 --> 01:07:37,880
Speaker 1: hundred and twenty seven. This offense is fucking horrendous. It's

1363
01:07:37,920 --> 01:07:40,920
Speaker 1: in for an for Iowa too. They can't throw it,

1364
01:07:40,960 --> 01:07:43,120
Speaker 1: they have no receivers. There are only two weapons. A

1365
01:07:43,160 --> 01:07:44,800
Speaker 1: tight end are out for the year, So what are

1366
01:07:44,800 --> 01:07:46,240
Speaker 1: they gonna do. They're gonna try to run the ball.

1367
01:07:46,560 --> 01:07:49,080
Speaker 1: They're one hundred and twenty fifth in EPA for rushing,

1368
01:07:49,040 --> 01:07:51,800
Speaker 1: one hundred and thirtieth and rushed success rate great, so

1369
01:07:52,000 --> 01:07:54,080
Speaker 1: they're gonna have the win games by punting to the one.

1370
01:07:55,320 --> 01:07:59,040
Speaker 1: Maybe they do it, but uh, just total thirty one

1371
01:07:59,120 --> 01:08:02,080
Speaker 1: and a half, the lowest total that we've tracked in

1372
01:08:02,120 --> 01:08:05,320
Speaker 1: twenty years. I'm obviously taking the underdog catching over a

1373
01:08:05,360 --> 01:08:05,880
Speaker 1: field goal.

1374
01:08:05,760 --> 01:08:07,880
Speaker 2: Here, what are you going to take the over?

1375
01:08:08,800 --> 01:08:11,959
Speaker 1: No game put in this game? Good on six y three?

1376
01:08:12,760 --> 01:08:14,840
Speaker 2: Well, I think the thing that is kind of shocked me.

1377
01:08:14,880 --> 01:08:16,400
Speaker 2: He's like, listen, Minnesota is going to try to run

1378
01:08:16,439 --> 01:08:19,840
Speaker 2: the ball sixty three sixty four percent rush rate. Do

1379
01:08:19,840 --> 01:08:21,920
Speaker 2: you know Iowa has a pretty bad rush defense?

1380
01:08:21,960 --> 01:08:24,080
Speaker 1: Like I didn't, Well, you hobnoestly didn't listen to my explanation.

1381
01:08:24,400 --> 01:08:27,600
Speaker 1: Oh I said that. I said, dais Taylor's back. I

1382
01:08:27,720 --> 01:08:29,960
Speaker 1: was run defensively digging in the metrics has been bad.

1383
01:08:30,040 --> 01:08:32,000
Speaker 1: So I think Minnesota can sustain drives on the ground.

1384
01:08:32,000 --> 01:08:34,120
Speaker 1: That's all they want to do is snail run. Iowa

1385
01:08:34,200 --> 01:08:36,600
Speaker 1: can't do anything on offense, so they're one advantage of

1386
01:08:36,640 --> 01:08:38,120
Speaker 1: this game is Minnesota running the ball.

1387
01:08:39,240 --> 01:08:41,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, they're not going to throw what I'd be surprised

1388
01:08:41,040 --> 01:08:44,599
Speaker 2: if if Athan caliak mannis has like more than ten

1389
01:08:44,640 --> 01:08:47,080
Speaker 2: passing attempts in this game. Maybe if they're like third

1390
01:08:47,080 --> 01:08:49,360
Speaker 2: and long. I don't know, because like Iowa is the

1391
01:08:49,360 --> 01:08:52,280
Speaker 2: best coverage unit in the nation. They are good at

1392
01:08:52,280 --> 01:08:54,760
Speaker 2: stopping explosive passes, but when it comes to the run,

1393
01:08:54,800 --> 01:08:56,360
Speaker 2: they can't stop that at all, And that to me

1394
01:08:56,479 --> 01:08:58,080
Speaker 2: is a great equalizer in a game where there's not

1395
01:08:58,120 --> 01:09:00,639
Speaker 2: going to be a lot of clocks. So yeah, Minnesota

1396
01:09:00,640 --> 01:09:01,160
Speaker 2: to recover.

1397
01:09:02,160 --> 01:09:04,360
Speaker 1: All right, So to recap, just say yes or no

1398
01:09:04,360 --> 01:09:10,599
Speaker 1: if you agreed again, Michigan state, Yes, Arizona State, Oh, Indiana, Yes,

1399
01:09:11,760 --> 01:09:17,840
Speaker 1: I convinced you in Indiana? Great maybe, yes, UCF absolutely big,

1400
01:09:18,320 --> 01:09:22,360
Speaker 1: Minnesota yes, yes, yes, we're.

1401
01:09:22,320 --> 01:09:24,880
Speaker 2: Five of six. How am I in the dumpster with you?

1402
01:09:24,960 --> 01:09:25,840
Speaker 2: Last the ground?

1403
01:09:26,040 --> 01:09:28,200
Speaker 1: How did I get in the trash can together?

1404
01:09:28,479 --> 01:09:29,200
Speaker 2: In the dumpster?

1405
01:09:29,640 --> 01:09:34,880
Speaker 1: Hopefully there's a nice restaurant nearby that dumps off some

1406
01:09:34,880 --> 01:09:38,880
Speaker 1: some scraps. All right, hopefully we'll good luck to us

1407
01:09:38,920 --> 01:09:41,479
Speaker 1: and to all of you who join us in the dumpster.

1408
01:09:41,640 --> 01:09:43,320
Speaker 1: Let's make it a party, I don't.

1409
01:09:43,479 --> 01:09:46,000
Speaker 2: There's no reason to be nasty. Clumpson has multiple losses.

1410
01:09:46,040 --> 01:09:48,320
Speaker 1: As we said beforese that means the typical college football

1411
01:09:48,320 --> 01:09:51,240
Speaker 1: season is in full swing and as gamblers, we're all

1412
01:09:51,280 --> 01:09:55,160
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1413
01:09:55,680 --> 01:09:58,639
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1414
01:09:58,680 --> 01:10:01,960
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1415
01:10:02,280 --> 01:10:06,599
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1416
01:10:06,640 --> 01:10:09,479
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1417
01:10:09,760 --> 01:10:13,880
Speaker 1: hunger related tilting. With Factor, you skip the extra trip

1418
01:10:13,880 --> 01:10:17,160
Speaker 1: to the grocery store that's shopping, the prepping and the

1419
01:10:17,200 --> 01:10:21,360
Speaker 1: cleanup too, and Factors fresh never frozen meals are ready

1420
01:10:21,439 --> 01:10:24,080
Speaker 1: in just two minutes, so all you have to do

1421
01:10:24,280 --> 01:10:27,000
Speaker 1: is heat and enjoy, then get back to adjusting your

1422
01:10:27,000 --> 01:10:30,080
Speaker 1: priors or sweating out some bet from our trash section.

1423
01:10:31,120 --> 01:10:34,120
Speaker 1: So upgrade your meals and your lifestyle and head to

1424
01:10:34,439 --> 01:10:39,759
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1425
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1426
01:10:45,000 --> 01:10:51,160
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1427
01:10:51,360 --> 01:10:55,320
Speaker 1: to get fifty percent off. All right for we go

1428
01:10:55,400 --> 01:10:59,479
Speaker 1: three and out ten second handicapped Nevada at San Diego State.

1429
01:10:59,479 --> 01:11:00,360
Speaker 2: You've been hot on these.

1430
01:11:00,680 --> 01:11:02,639
Speaker 1: Santaue State has been an overteam this year.

1431
01:11:02,760 --> 01:11:03,960
Speaker 3: As tech overs.

1432
01:11:04,439 --> 01:11:07,080
Speaker 2: Does it continue, No, it's gonna be an underteam because

1433
01:11:07,120 --> 01:11:09,160
Speaker 2: of Nevada. I mean, you're not gonna find worse priystics

1434
01:11:09,160 --> 01:11:11,519
Speaker 2: for a college football team than Nevada. Anything s the

1435
01:11:11,960 --> 01:11:14,160
Speaker 2: anything San Diego State wants to do, they're gonna get it.

1436
01:11:14,520 --> 01:11:16,639
Speaker 2: I project the totally be a thirty nine. I expect

1437
01:11:16,680 --> 01:11:19,439
Speaker 2: the San Diego State defense to have success in limiting

1438
01:11:19,479 --> 01:11:22,120
Speaker 2: Nevada's big place, which there's never any and in the

1439
01:11:22,120 --> 01:11:24,679
Speaker 2: red zone, where Nevada is absolutely terrible. They've only had

1440
01:11:25,160 --> 01:11:28,120
Speaker 2: fifteen visits to the red zone. That's one hundred and

1441
01:11:28,120 --> 01:11:30,519
Speaker 2: twenty eight in number of trips to the red zone,

1442
01:11:31,080 --> 01:11:34,360
Speaker 2: two ahead of Charlotte and Kent State. You gotta take

1443
01:11:34,400 --> 01:11:37,080
Speaker 2: it under. Nevada's never scores there, never even have a

1444
01:11:37,160 --> 01:11:40,120
Speaker 2: chance to score. Sorry, guys, no over this week because

1445
01:11:40,120 --> 01:11:40,639
Speaker 2: of the opponent.

1446
01:11:40,680 --> 01:11:43,360
Speaker 1: We'll go under there. There's so bad all right for

1447
01:11:43,439 --> 01:11:46,720
Speaker 1: you down here, Let's go three and out.

1448
01:11:47,040 --> 01:11:49,400
Speaker 2: Let's make it a quick three and out.

1449
01:11:50,400 --> 01:11:52,640
Speaker 1: All right, First down Friday night lights.

1450
01:11:53,439 --> 01:11:56,360
Speaker 2: That's here, gentlemen, clear eyes, full hearts.

1451
01:11:57,120 --> 01:12:00,679
Speaker 1: Let's go play football. Yeah, this weekday of football. It's bad.

1452
01:12:00,720 --> 01:12:02,920
Speaker 1: I can't wait for them. It's bad. There's one Friday

1453
01:12:03,000 --> 01:12:08,160
Speaker 1: night game and it's SMU at Temple. You have the

1454
01:12:08,320 --> 01:12:09,960
Speaker 1: Stone Age and Preston.

1455
01:12:09,720 --> 01:12:18,400
Speaker 3: Stone Welcome to the Stone Age.

1456
01:12:20,439 --> 01:12:24,760
Speaker 1: I like it. Legit AAC contenders taking on Temple. They're

1457
01:12:24,840 --> 01:12:27,200
Speaker 1: up to a twenty and a half point favorite. They've

1458
01:12:27,240 --> 01:12:29,160
Speaker 1: taken money. Does that mean EJ. Warner is out?

1459
01:12:29,720 --> 01:12:32,600
Speaker 2: I think Patterson's Quincy. Patterson's been around long enough to

1460
01:12:32,600 --> 01:12:34,000
Speaker 2: play in the Stone Age, right.

1461
01:12:34,400 --> 01:12:37,559
Speaker 1: Yeah, I have no interest in this game. I have

1462
01:12:37,760 --> 01:12:40,880
Speaker 1: SMU future, so I just hope they don't lose. This

1463
01:12:41,000 --> 01:12:42,760
Speaker 1: game is awful. Anything here for you.

1464
01:12:43,160 --> 01:12:44,880
Speaker 2: The number is way too high. But at the same time,

1465
01:12:44,920 --> 01:12:48,240
Speaker 2: how does Temple get anything going here? I mean, with

1466
01:12:48,320 --> 01:12:50,599
Speaker 2: Warner should be an eighteen point spread. Without I'd say

1467
01:12:50,600 --> 01:12:51,799
Speaker 2: about twenty one and a half.

1468
01:12:52,000 --> 01:12:53,960
Speaker 1: Quincy he's out, he's out, by the way, and then

1469
01:12:54,400 --> 01:12:55,920
Speaker 1: okay announced, I.

1470
01:12:55,880 --> 01:12:57,840
Speaker 2: Mean, how does Temple get any money, get anything on

1471
01:12:57,880 --> 01:12:59,639
Speaker 2: the board? I mean, they're so reliant on the pass.

1472
01:13:00,120 --> 01:13:01,800
Speaker 2: Sixty percent of the time they throw the ball, but

1473
01:13:01,840 --> 01:13:03,320
Speaker 2: that's because they spend a hell of a lot of

1474
01:13:03,320 --> 01:13:05,519
Speaker 2: time in passing downs. That's not going to change against

1475
01:13:06,160 --> 01:13:08,519
Speaker 2: against SMU, and SMU is the number one defense in

1476
01:13:08,520 --> 01:13:11,719
Speaker 2: the country and defending explosives in standard downs, which tells

1477
01:13:11,720 --> 01:13:14,479
Speaker 2: me Temple is going to be behind the chains all night.

1478
01:13:14,560 --> 01:13:17,280
Speaker 2: The SMU offense is going to have its way, no havoc,

1479
01:13:17,400 --> 01:13:20,920
Speaker 2: no resistance, no scoring opportunities. If you're going to bet SMU,

1480
01:13:21,200 --> 01:13:24,040
Speaker 2: you bet you're betting an inflated number. I'm not going

1481
01:13:24,120 --> 01:13:25,640
Speaker 2: to be on it, but good luck if you do.

1482
01:13:27,479 --> 01:13:28,200
Speaker 2: Pony Up.

1483
01:13:30,000 --> 01:13:32,880
Speaker 1: I could see SMU's offense hasn't been that explosive. Their

1484
01:13:32,880 --> 01:13:35,120
Speaker 1: defense has been surprising, so I could see them with

1485
01:13:35,280 --> 01:13:37,559
Speaker 1: like just being sleepy in this game too, like at

1486
01:13:37,560 --> 01:13:39,080
Speaker 1: Temple without their starting quarterback.

1487
01:13:39,360 --> 01:13:41,160
Speaker 2: They got Tulsa the next week, so if there's not

1488
01:13:41,200 --> 01:13:43,160
Speaker 2: like a huge look ahead, I mean Tulsa's one and more.

1489
01:13:43,680 --> 01:13:46,840
Speaker 1: So that's true. SEB is a very formal schedule. Then

1490
01:13:46,880 --> 01:13:52,439
Speaker 1: it's Rice, North, Texas, Memphis, and Navy, so the stone

1491
01:13:52,479 --> 01:13:56,360
Speaker 1: Age could be in the AAC ship, which I hope

1492
01:13:56,400 --> 01:13:58,280
Speaker 1: is for my futures. All right, let's move on second down,

1493
01:13:58,280 --> 01:13:59,639
Speaker 1: favorite overdog, favorite favorite.

1494
01:14:00,000 --> 01:14:01,519
Speaker 2: It's called the over Dhaks parlay.

1495
01:14:02,320 --> 01:14:04,439
Speaker 1: I'm going with USC. I mentioned the star. I think

1496
01:14:04,439 --> 01:14:06,160
Speaker 1: it's a good spot. And then to bounce back against

1497
01:14:06,200 --> 01:14:08,640
Speaker 1: a Utah defense that one after their star safety in

1498
01:14:08,640 --> 01:14:10,720
Speaker 1: the first half and hasn't played an offense with a

1499
01:14:10,760 --> 01:14:13,959
Speaker 1: pulse yet. They played nothing but backup quarterbacks, inexperienced quarterbacks,

1500
01:14:14,000 --> 01:14:17,720
Speaker 1: bad offenses, and the two games that they've gone away

1501
01:14:17,760 --> 01:14:20,519
Speaker 1: from rice Ecles where they have all the voodoo, they

1502
01:14:20,520 --> 01:14:22,439
Speaker 1: should have lost a bad Batot team with their backup

1503
01:14:22,680 --> 01:14:25,840
Speaker 1: and they got dominated by Oregon State. I just think

1504
01:14:25,960 --> 01:14:27,920
Speaker 1: US can load the box here and Utalk won't be

1505
01:14:27,960 --> 01:14:29,599
Speaker 1: able to keep up. Give me the Trojans fight on

1506
01:14:29,640 --> 01:14:30,160
Speaker 1: where you going?

1507
01:14:30,680 --> 01:14:32,360
Speaker 2: I'm going Kansas State. And if you didn't get the

1508
01:14:32,400 --> 01:14:34,880
Speaker 2: chance to see Avery Johnson running the Ballie had five

1509
01:14:34,920 --> 01:14:37,840
Speaker 2: tds last week. Now he's in an or situation with

1510
01:14:37,920 --> 01:14:40,080
Speaker 2: Will Howard where either of them are going to play quarterback.

1511
01:14:40,120 --> 01:14:42,759
Speaker 2: But it really just screams what they did with Adrian

1512
01:14:42,800 --> 01:14:46,200
Speaker 2: Martinez and Will Howard last year. You suspect that Avery

1513
01:14:46,240 --> 01:14:48,400
Speaker 2: Johnson is going to get a lot of the run carries,

1514
01:14:48,439 --> 01:14:50,519
Speaker 2: Will Harrow do the throwing, but you know what Avery

1515
01:14:50,560 --> 01:14:52,639
Speaker 2: Johnson can throw too. We just haven't seen it yet.

1516
01:14:52,880 --> 01:14:55,360
Speaker 2: This TCU defense is a three three five stack. They're

1517
01:14:55,479 --> 01:14:57,680
Speaker 2: very light in the box and what we knew from

1518
01:14:57,760 --> 01:15:00,240
Speaker 2: last year is Joseph Gillespie does not like to add

1519
01:15:00,280 --> 01:15:02,320
Speaker 2: to the box, even if he's going up against a

1520
01:15:02,320 --> 01:15:05,160
Speaker 2: heavy rush attack. It really shows in the numbers. TCU

1521
01:15:05,280 --> 01:15:07,720
Speaker 2: is sixty eighth in defensive line yards. They're outside of

1522
01:15:07,760 --> 01:15:11,599
Speaker 2: the top fifty and allowing explosive rushing, which is going

1523
01:15:11,640 --> 01:15:14,439
Speaker 2: to happen in this game. I think Kansas State is renewed.

1524
01:15:14,640 --> 01:15:17,320
Speaker 2: They're pissed off and this Avery Johnson kid running the

1525
01:15:17,320 --> 01:15:19,360
Speaker 2: ball is a sight to see. Get your TVs turned

1526
01:15:19,400 --> 01:15:23,840
Speaker 2: on for what six pm on Saturday night because Avery

1527
01:15:23,920 --> 01:15:25,559
Speaker 2: Johnson is going to give it to you. Take Kansas

1528
01:15:25,600 --> 01:15:27,080
Speaker 2: State minus six and a half. I power right at

1529
01:15:27,160 --> 01:15:30,360
Speaker 2: nine and that's not even adjusting for Avery Johnson.

1530
01:15:31,080 --> 01:15:34,559
Speaker 1: Emoll fight on in Emoll all right. One final task

1531
01:15:34,640 --> 01:15:39,280
Speaker 1: third down are underdog money on parla, our favorite money

1532
01:15:39,320 --> 01:15:44,400
Speaker 1: on underdogs.

1533
01:15:42,840 --> 01:15:46,200
Speaker 2: Turning good weekends into great weekends.

1534
01:15:46,680 --> 01:15:51,559
Speaker 1: It's time for the money line parlay. Easy choice for me.

1535
01:15:51,600 --> 01:15:54,960
Speaker 1: I just talked about it, Minnesota. You're telling me the

1536
01:15:55,000 --> 01:15:58,519
Speaker 1: worst offense in the country is a favorite with a

1537
01:15:58,520 --> 01:16:01,360
Speaker 1: total of thirty one and an hour half, playing its

1538
01:16:01,400 --> 01:16:04,839
Speaker 1: eighth straight game with an exhausted defense against a Minnesota

1539
01:16:04,840 --> 01:16:07,160
Speaker 1: team coming off of By getting its running back back,

1540
01:16:07,200 --> 01:16:10,360
Speaker 1: most likely getting its best linebacker back, they can run

1541
01:16:10,400 --> 01:16:11,920
Speaker 1: the ball on the side of team. That's what they

1542
01:16:11,920 --> 01:16:15,040
Speaker 1: want to do. This game should be ugly high. Aerian's

1543
01:16:15,080 --> 01:16:16,759
Speaker 1: like it'll just come down to basically like one turnover.

1544
01:16:16,840 --> 01:16:18,439
Speaker 1: Hopefully it's not the Greek rifle.

1545
01:16:18,760 --> 01:16:26,280
Speaker 2: The Greek rifle, give me the go first.

1546
01:16:26,360 --> 01:16:26,800
Speaker 1: Where you go.

1547
01:16:27,240 --> 01:16:29,320
Speaker 2: I'm going to a team that we've been touting since

1548
01:16:29,360 --> 01:16:32,600
Speaker 2: the middle of the year, middle of the summer, and

1549
01:16:32,640 --> 01:16:35,320
Speaker 2: that is Colorado State. We said, if this team can

1550
01:16:35,360 --> 01:16:37,960
Speaker 2: survive having injuries on the offensive line, they're going to

1551
01:16:37,960 --> 01:16:39,920
Speaker 2: be a play on team in Mountain West Conference play.

1552
01:16:40,400 --> 01:16:42,800
Speaker 2: Here we are. They needed a billion things that happened

1553
01:16:42,840 --> 01:16:45,200
Speaker 2: to get that win against Boise State. I think that

1554
01:16:45,240 --> 01:16:48,000
Speaker 2: carries over into this game against UNLV. UNLV has been

1555
01:16:48,080 --> 01:16:50,600
Speaker 2: atrocious and defending the big play. They're one hundred and

1556
01:16:50,600 --> 01:16:52,760
Speaker 2: thirtieth in the nation. When you look at their pass

1557
01:16:52,800 --> 01:16:55,320
Speaker 2: coverage rank one hundred and ninth by PFF and they're

1558
01:16:55,360 --> 01:16:58,040
Speaker 2: one hundred and fifteenth and passing success right that is

1559
01:16:58,160 --> 01:17:03,160
Speaker 2: not going to work against Brandon Nicolesy Nicolosi, And you know,

1560
01:17:03,200 --> 01:17:05,240
Speaker 2: if you look at the epas just up against each other,

1561
01:17:05,240 --> 01:17:07,679
Speaker 2: which is what Colorado State mostly is. With Tory Horton,

1562
01:17:07,720 --> 01:17:11,360
Speaker 2: there only passes. That's all I do, that's all they do.

1563
01:17:11,800 --> 01:17:14,600
Speaker 2: And that's really bad for UNLV, who is terrible in

1564
01:17:14,720 --> 01:17:18,400
Speaker 2: defending explosives and the past. So give me Colorado State

1565
01:17:18,400 --> 01:17:19,439
Speaker 2: to pull off another one.

1566
01:17:20,240 --> 01:17:22,160
Speaker 1: Let's do it, all right, that'll do it for us

1567
01:17:22,320 --> 01:17:26,160
Speaker 1: and our three hundredth episode. Thanks again to all of you,

1568
01:17:26,280 --> 01:17:28,920
Speaker 1: Thanks of course to Colin for joining me for all

1569
01:17:28,960 --> 01:17:31,880
Speaker 1: of those episodes. Thanks to our other fellow co host

1570
01:17:32,040 --> 01:17:34,960
Speaker 1: Mike Mike Brett, and our producers on the back end.

1571
01:17:36,280 --> 01:17:38,519
Speaker 1: It's been a hell of a ride. But we're just

1572
01:17:38,520 --> 01:17:40,559
Speaker 1: getting started. Here's the three hundred more and then three

1573
01:17:40,640 --> 01:17:43,680
Speaker 1: hundred more after that. Make sure you subscribe on subscribed, Subscribe,

1574
01:17:43,680 --> 01:17:45,800
Speaker 1: Tell a friend, ton enemy, you know the deal, leave

1575
01:17:45,840 --> 01:17:48,559
Speaker 1: a review, a five star review, do some giveaways in

1576
01:17:48,640 --> 01:17:50,400
Speaker 1: the next week. You can say whatever if you've already

1577
01:17:50,400 --> 01:17:52,639
Speaker 1: done it, borrow someone's phone, do another one. They really

1578
01:17:52,640 --> 01:17:55,639
Speaker 1: help us out. Appreciate all of your support. Make sure

1579
01:17:55,680 --> 01:17:58,960
Speaker 1: you check us out. Ten thirty am. Eastern Live, bdoc

1580
01:17:59,640 --> 01:18:03,439
Speaker 1: Live on Twitter, YouTube, the app. We'll tweet out the

1581
01:18:03,439 --> 01:18:07,960
Speaker 1: link myself, Colin and Brett McMurphy. We'll cover Saturday Slate.

1582
01:18:08,080 --> 01:18:09,960
Speaker 1: We'll have our recap episode, don't forget about the voicemail

1583
01:18:10,000 --> 01:18:12,080
Speaker 1: nine five nine Bad Beat thanks to our sponsor bet MGM.

1584
01:18:12,200 --> 01:18:15,120
Speaker 1: Tuesday New BCS ten thirty am Eastern Live on YouTube

1585
01:18:15,280 --> 01:18:17,040
Speaker 1: and the group of five guys. Remember to check them

1586
01:18:17,040 --> 01:18:19,479
Speaker 1: out always Wednesday morning and then Conn and I'll be

1587
01:18:19,520 --> 01:18:22,519
Speaker 1: back Week nine. Heading preview comes out late Thursday night.

1588
01:18:22,560 --> 01:18:24,880
Speaker 1: As always, good luck with all of your wagers and

1589
01:18:24,920 --> 01:18:27,040
Speaker 1: we will see you on Saturday. Cheers.

1590
01:18:27,520 --> 01:18:43,000
Speaker 2: Peace Out Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

1591
01:18:43,400 --> 01:18:46,240
Speaker 3: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1592
01:18:46,520 --> 01:18:49,120
Speaker 3: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

1593
01:18:49,240 --> 01:18:50,040
Speaker 3: hundred gambler