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Speaker 1: All right, here we go.

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Speaker 2: Every pitch is your pitch, The greatest show on dirt, deep.

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Speaker 3: Tail way back that God.

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Speaker 1: Where is that Cord Show?

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Speaker 3: Now they can add college baseball to their trophy case.

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Speaker 4: Welcome to the Big Bets on Campus podcast. I'm your host,

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Speaker 4: Mike Calvary's joined by the Action Networks college baseball expert

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Speaker 4: Colin Wilson. From sixty four teams down to two, we

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Speaker 4: have our championship series set between the LSU Tigers and

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Speaker 4: the Chanticleers of Coastal Carolina. But before we preview the finals,

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Speaker 4: we need to talk about the curse athletic program that

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Speaker 4: is the Arkansas Razorbacks. Colin, just walk me through the

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Speaker 4: entire journey emotionally and where you at, where you are

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Speaker 4: at now days removed from it not good.

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Speaker 2: I actually want to say thank you to Twitter, as

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Speaker 2: most people like to hop into my dms and completely

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Speaker 2: tear me up when Arkansas loses. Actually was a very

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Speaker 2: respectable crowd. So the first thing I want to say

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Speaker 2: is even to some ELICHU fans that were apologetic about

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Speaker 2: what happened. And my response to everybody is, yeah, I'm

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Speaker 2: in a dark place, but when have I been in

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Speaker 2: a light place. I have since in the last forty

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Speaker 2: eight hours been to regroup with some of my Razorback alumni,

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Speaker 2: with some of my best friends I've had for thirty years,

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Speaker 2: and we had a discussion about what it is to

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Speaker 2: be in this fan base. Because my son is a

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Speaker 2: freshman at the University of Arkansas, my best friend's son

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Speaker 2: is a sophomore at the University of Arkansas, and they

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Speaker 2: were both asking, what in the fuck do we get

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Speaker 2: ourselves into. Well, let me review for you the top

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Speaker 2: three worst moments in Razorback history. Okay, because number three,

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Speaker 2: by far was what I went to Matt Mitchell with

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Speaker 2: in twenty eighteen at the birth of this podcast. This podcast,

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Speaker 2: Matt Mitchell twenty eighteen came to Stucky and I said,

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Speaker 2: I'm making a drop for this podcast for college football.

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Speaker 1: I need the biggest moments in.

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Speaker 2: College football history. What can I put in there? I said,

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Speaker 2: Stumble and fumble, Stumble and fumble. Arkansas Tennessee nineteen ninety eight,

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Speaker 2: eight and O versus eight and O.

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Speaker 1: We had the lead.

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Speaker 2: We could have been national champ number one in the nation.

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Speaker 2: We could have been national title contenders. Instead, Clint Stirner

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Speaker 2: took the snap with a minute left, turned around, stumbled

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Speaker 2: on Brandon Bowles or foot, fumbled the ball. Tennessee got it,

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Speaker 2: won the game and won the national championship. That's only

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Speaker 2: number three, the number one most hurtful thing. And by

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Speaker 2: the way, we cut that Sean McDonough's stumble and fumble.

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Speaker 2: I told Matt Mitchell, you have to put that in

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Speaker 2: our podcast.

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Speaker 1: It's there. It's there for a reason.

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Speaker 2: There's a reason Arkansas's version of tusk is the background

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Speaker 2: to our podcast.

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Speaker 1: It's humbling. We're vulnerable.

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Speaker 2: We have a chip on our shoulder because we're the

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Speaker 2: forty eighth, forty ninth best state in literacy team pregnancy Like,

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Speaker 2: that's why we are an asshole fan base, because we

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Speaker 2: have to deal with this shit and from our teams.

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Speaker 2: And that's only the number three worst thing that's ever

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Speaker 2: happened to us. The worst thing that's ever happened to

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Speaker 2: us was in twenty eighteen when you have two strikes,

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Speaker 2: two outs in a one game lead on Oregon State

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Speaker 2: and you let a ball drop between three defenders in

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Speaker 2: foul territory.

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Speaker 3: That's the number one worst thing that's ever happened. But

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Speaker 3: what happened the other night was worse than those things

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Speaker 3: because Sterner fumbling was one play. Oregon State that ball

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Speaker 3: dropping a foul toy, that was one play. What does

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Speaker 3: Samuell happen the other night, Well, he would all of

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Speaker 3: a sudden, isn't turn in two with a clear, clear

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Speaker 3: double play?

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Speaker 1: Roll up, We're not walking Jared Jones with.

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Speaker 3: Open bases like Davelon, who's been near perfect. A spitting

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Speaker 3: image of Lenny Dykster's kid, the sweetest kid on Earth,

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Speaker 3: slips and the ball bounces off his ass. And let's

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Speaker 3: get past.

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Speaker 5: That that hit that Lsu had because you does not

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Speaker 5: jump up and tag it with his glove and it

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Speaker 5: doesn't stop the momentum our centerfielder and throws it home,

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Speaker 5: and we still haven't lost the game as tied.

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Speaker 1: The series of events that have to happen the other

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Speaker 1: night to.

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Speaker 2: Get Arkansas knocked out of Omaha is the second worst

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Speaker 2: thing that's ever happened in Razorback history. And all I

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Speaker 2: can do is sit back in my forties and stare

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Speaker 2: at the next generation and say, I'm sorry, your name

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Speaker 2: is getting engraved on the sidewalk when you graduate, and

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Speaker 2: your lifetime of pain, your clock starts now. And that's

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Speaker 2: where we're at as Arkansas razorback fans.

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Speaker 4: Well, there's no easy transition out of that, but I

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Speaker 4: appreciate your candor walking me through the emotional graveyard that

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Speaker 4: is being a Hogs fan. Yeah, I there's not much

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Speaker 4: that can be said. I will say one follow up question.

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Speaker 4: I would like to say, because you've talked about Dave

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Speaker 4: van Horn, You've talked about what it meant to him

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Speaker 4: to potentially get over the hump, get that first national championship.

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Speaker 4: He thought that he had it clearly with this team

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Speaker 4: and the emotional outpouring, you know, before even got to Omaha,

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Speaker 4: and then the postgame presser, not walking Jared Jones. We

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Speaker 4: haven't put much on his shoulders. I mean, clearly, he's

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Speaker 4: someone who assembles the roster, he's managing the pen, he's

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Speaker 4: managing the lineup, all these different things.

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Speaker 1: How much of a gaff do you think that was?

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Speaker 4: And do you think that gets lost to history now

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Speaker 4: because the highlight is going to be the slip. The

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Speaker 4: ball hits him in the shoulder, it rolls past him,

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Speaker 4: they tie the game, they lose, But do you think

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Speaker 4: really it was one of those managerial mistakes that deserves

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Speaker 4: to be blown up a little bit.

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Speaker 2: There is no sense in disrespecting Dave van Horn because

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Speaker 2: a lot of people won't.

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Speaker 1: But if you listen to this college Baseball podcast.

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Speaker 2: I have lightly treaded in that area. It's different when

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Speaker 2: it's Pittman, when it's Muscleman. Those guys are different. I

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Speaker 2: can go at them all day. Dave van Horn is

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Speaker 2: really untouchable. But we've had consistent issues with the decisions

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Speaker 2: we've made with pitching for years. The usage of Kevin

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Speaker 2: Copps was a problem. The usage of moving guys into

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Speaker 2: the starting position out like Gave Gackle is a problem.

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Speaker 2: And I don't know why we can't seem to figure

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Speaker 2: it out. How Parker Coyle and Christian Fouch didn't even

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Speaker 2: get a pitch thrown. How Aiden Jimenez is out there

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Speaker 2: and not Fouch or Coil, our best pitchers never even

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Speaker 2: saw the field. And the fact that we didn't walk

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Speaker 2: Jared Jones is just one of those little, many paper

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Speaker 2: cuts on your hand of the Dave van Horn love

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Speaker 2: that we have that's there and that's not going away.

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Speaker 2: It's the same thing I say about James Franklin of

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Speaker 2: Penn State football national title contender, Absolutely limitation by the coach.

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Speaker 1: Absolutely.

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Speaker 4: All right, let's now turn to the championship series between

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Speaker 4: LSU and Coastal. We're going to go game by game

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Speaker 4: with the pitching matchups. First, we're gonna talk wind and weather.

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Speaker 4: We're going to talk about an exact outcome and pass

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Speaker 4: to victory for both of these programs. But let's start

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Speaker 4: with Game one. Your projection you have for the Schanz

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Speaker 4: Cameron Fluke against the Bayou Bengals Kate Anderson. You have

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Speaker 4: Anderson the lefty going off at about minus one sixty

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Speaker 4: with a total settling in between.

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Speaker 1: Nine and a half and ten.

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Speaker 4: Clearly, LSU has the advantage here in terms of what

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Speaker 4: Anderson's brought to the bump. Really, for the past two months,

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Speaker 4: he's been someone that's been good for about ten k's

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Speaker 4: for outing. He's pitched his way into the first round

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Speaker 4: of the Major League Baseball Draft, at least if you

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Speaker 4: put any stock in those mock drafts. But this Coastal

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Speaker 4: team and Kevin Schanal, he has pulled every lever proper

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Speaker 4: you know, in terms of how he utilizes his bullpen.

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Speaker 4: If you want to say it's the opposite of the

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Speaker 4: Arkansas experience, I wouldn't hold that against you. So clearly

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Speaker 4: this is a team that could potentially suppress runs. Do

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Speaker 4: you think they can squeeze one out here in game one?

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Speaker 4: Where do you think Game two is a better spot

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Speaker 4: to look for?

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Speaker 2: Coastal Well, LSU is eleventh the nation and fielding percentage,

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Speaker 2: and they will be able to scoop and throw anybody

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Speaker 2: that lays down a sack bunch. I go back to Arkansas.

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Speaker 2: You look at that bunt that LSU laid down. Somehow

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Speaker 2: Robin Att he charged the ball, then came back and

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Speaker 2: caught it. Arkansas's number two in the nation fielding percentage.

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Speaker 2: LSU was eleventh of the nation fielding percentage. I think

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Speaker 2: any bunts that Coastal lays down, you can guarantee that

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Speaker 2: Jay Johnson has his team getting ready for shifts. What

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Speaker 2: do we do with runners on that's going to come

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Speaker 2: into massive play here in game one? If you look

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Speaker 2: at the wind, it's insane. It is the most ferocious

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Speaker 2: it's been in the entire Omaha series of this year.

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Speaker 2: Seventeen mile an hour sustained wins coming in from right

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Speaker 2: and center field gus up to thirty five miles an hour.

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Speaker 1: That is the weather that I'm used to in Omaha.

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Speaker 2: I've kind of had a steady, steady breeze in a

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Speaker 2: lot of breeze in, but it's not been like this.

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Speaker 2: This is going to be ferocious. This is going to

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Speaker 2: be Jared Jones power hitting, stopping in the alley kind

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Speaker 2: of wind that completely plays into Coastal. Now they haven't

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Speaker 2: seen Kate Anderson, and people that haven't seen Kate Anderson

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Speaker 2: the first time around really struggle with his movement on

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Speaker 2: his ball. Will coast will be able to get buns down?

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Speaker 1: Sure? Is LSU going to be able to pick it cleanly? Sure?

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Speaker 2: So I do believe, you know, the mathematical projection that

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Speaker 2: I have of nine point eight, that's just simply you know,

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Speaker 2: it's simply calculated base runs starter x fips, which if

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Speaker 2: you look at this Cameron Fluchi four point three, Kate

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Speaker 2: Anderson three point three, there's a reason that LSU is

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Speaker 2: minus one sixty minus one sixty five here, which is

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Speaker 2: exactly where I put it.

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Speaker 1: They should win this game.

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Speaker 2: But at the same time, to me, if I was

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Speaker 2: betting this game, I would go under the number eight

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Speaker 2: and a half. I know that's below the projection, but

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Speaker 2: the first time you see Kate Anderson around. This is

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Speaker 2: the first time they're going to see Cameron Fluke around two.

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Speaker 2: And with that wind blowing in, I think that this

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Speaker 2: is a pregame under and I think this is the

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Speaker 2: second time the order comes up third fourth inning. I

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Speaker 2: think that's a that's a live over, and that's how

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Speaker 2: I'm going to be playing Game one. I think the

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Speaker 2: number is perfect on the side. You just don't know

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Speaker 2: if LSU. Both of these teams are playing out of

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Speaker 2: their mind right now. LSU can pick buns cleanly, so

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Speaker 2: it's going to be a great and both of them

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Speaker 2: have catchers that can throw people, so this is going

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Speaker 2: to be a very well evenly matched The market's correct,

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Speaker 2: but it's an undergame all the way, especially with the win.

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Speaker 4: You also have listed off the projected stopper closers for

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Speaker 4: both programs here in game one and game two. For

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Speaker 4: Coastal it's Ryan Lynch and then Dominic Carbone, and then

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Speaker 4: for LSU it's Zach Cowen and Casey case and Evans.

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Speaker 4: In terms of those back ends, which one would you

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Speaker 4: prefer do you think as a coinslip.

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Speaker 2: Probably Zach Cowen is a stopper over Ryan Lynch and

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Speaker 2: probably dominant carbone over Case and Evans, although I probably

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Speaker 2: get some LSU corn dogs thrown at me for saying that,

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Speaker 2: But you know, I think the thing is is both

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Speaker 2: of them have elite bullpens. The one player that has

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Speaker 2: not been mentioned is Chase Shores. And Chase Shores was

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Speaker 2: great through about twenty pitches against Arkansas and in other

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Speaker 2: spots this year. You look at some things against Low

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Speaker 2: Rock and some other series. But once that movement starts

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Speaker 2: tailing out of the strike zone, which it does the

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Speaker 2: more he pitches, that thing gets so much spin that

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Speaker 2: three thousand RPMs on it, it just can't stay in

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Speaker 2: the strike zone, starts going everywhere. And so Chase Shorts

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Speaker 2: can throw one hundred and one for LSU and Zach

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Speaker 2: Cowen can do you know, pretty close to the same.

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Speaker 2: But the problem is they use Zach Cowen as a

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Speaker 2: starter in bracket too. So is Zach Cowen the true

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Speaker 2: stopper here or is Chase Shores the stopper. They're going

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Speaker 2: to use them both. It's going to be matchup dependent.

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Speaker 2: They're going to do their homework and make sure they

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Speaker 2: get the right guy out here. Overall, you know from

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Speaker 2: a from a team ERA and a team x FIP.

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Speaker 2: LSU's sitting at four point seven, Coastal is sitting at

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Speaker 2: a flat five, So it is an advantage to LSU.

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Speaker 2: I think they have more arms. But the Ryan Lynch

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Speaker 2: Darmant combo and Comrade combination is very good for Coastal.

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Speaker 4: Now, Jay Johnson, do you think he is going to,

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Speaker 4: you know, turn to Cowen less trying to keep in

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Speaker 4: mind if he needs him in Game three, because for

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Speaker 4: those not in the know, these are three games back

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Speaker 4: to back to back. There's no off day, There's no

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Speaker 4: way to kind of rest in terms of your reliever

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Speaker 4: who you want to turn into a starter. And they

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Speaker 4: only did it twice all season. But Cowen got the

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Speaker 4: start against our Arkansas. He was pretty great five and

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Speaker 4: a third innings. You know, he scattered four hits. He

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Speaker 4: struck out six in that matchup against the Hogs. So

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Speaker 4: do you see him potentially trying to save him or

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Speaker 4: do you think it's going to be a true cobble

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Speaker 4: together bullpen kind of start in Game three.

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Speaker 2: I think Jay Johnson will do everything he can to

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Speaker 2: keep Anthony Ionson and Zach Cowen out of Game one

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Speaker 2: because if they win, Coastal might be dead to rights

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Speaker 2: in game two without Anthony Iinson and Zach Cowen. If

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Speaker 2: they're trailing, he won't use Zach Cowen or Anthony Iinson.

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Speaker 2: So the trick here for Jay Johnson is that sweet

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Speaker 2: spot that he had in the tie ball game against Arkansas.

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Speaker 2: You saw Anthony Jinsen up on the rubber in the pin,

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Speaker 2: right down back to the bench, up on the rubber.

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Speaker 1: And I like that is the ace in the hole. Now,

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Speaker 1: Anthony Inson.

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Speaker 2: Is scheduled to pitch game two, but I guarantee since

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Speaker 2: Zak Cowen's already got some pitches into him, he needs probably.

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Speaker 1: Another day of rest.

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Speaker 2: I think that this is going to be do everything

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Speaker 2: we can LSU perspective Jay Johnson to keep Zack Cowen

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Speaker 2: and Anthony Iinson out of this lineup in game one.

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Speaker 4: And you just mentioned the game two matchup, and Coastal

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Speaker 4: is likely going to send Morrison to the bump their ace,

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Speaker 4: so there's a little bit of gamesmanship using him in

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Speaker 4: game two. I was surprised though, in terms of your

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Speaker 4: pricing projection closer to minus one seventy for Ionsen. Do

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Speaker 4: you think there's value on Coastal potentially on a run

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Speaker 4: line in game two.

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Speaker 2: It yes, because Jacob Morrison is pitching out of his mind.

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Speaker 2: He's pitching above his projections. And I know exactly where

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Speaker 2: this number comes from because both of them have eras

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Speaker 2: Anthony Ionson two point seven Jacob Morrison two point two.

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Speaker 2: And you look at that and you say, how could

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Speaker 2: Jacob Morrison be an underdog here? Well, the answer really

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00:13:34,679 --> 00:13:37,000
Speaker 2: is in the x FIP. Jacob Morrison's x FIP is

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Speaker 2: four point seven eight. Anthony Ionson's a full run lower

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Speaker 2: at three point seven to six. And that's where the

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Speaker 2: crux of this comes from. You know, team x fips,

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Speaker 2: like I said already, about the same closer x fips

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Speaker 2: about the same. So when you look at this overall,

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Speaker 2: this number is derived by the fact that Anthony Iinson

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Speaker 2: is backed by an LSU offense that has a half

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Speaker 2: run more in calculated base runs and a full run

289
00:13:57,480 --> 00:14:00,840
Speaker 2: lower in his own x FIP. So that's where the

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00:14:00,880 --> 00:14:04,680
Speaker 2: minus one sixty seven projection is coming from. I think

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00:14:04,840 --> 00:14:07,920
Speaker 2: win or lose could shift this fifteen cents.

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Speaker 1: I think if LSU.

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00:14:09,040 --> 00:14:10,839
Speaker 2: Wins Game one, you could see ions in as high

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00:14:10,840 --> 00:14:13,000
Speaker 2: as minus one eighty. I think if Coastal wins. You

295
00:14:13,000 --> 00:14:15,240
Speaker 2: can see this as low as ions and minus one fifty,

296
00:14:15,360 --> 00:14:19,000
Speaker 2: so make sure and grab the best price. Also, wind

297
00:14:19,040 --> 00:14:20,440
Speaker 2: is still going to be a factor in game two.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I wanted to double dip back into the win

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00:14:23,120 --> 00:14:25,760
Speaker 4: just for a second here, How like, how big of

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Speaker 4: a deal is this. That's LSU who's in the one

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00:14:29,120 --> 00:14:31,320
Speaker 4: hundred home run club this year. They fit home runs

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00:14:31,360 --> 00:14:34,080
Speaker 4: in back to back games. They're slugging advantage, which is

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00:14:34,120 --> 00:14:37,440
Speaker 4: so significant. Coastals one hundred and thirty second in slugging

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00:14:37,480 --> 00:14:40,640
Speaker 4: percentage in Division One. It is so rare for a

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00:14:40,680 --> 00:14:42,880
Speaker 4: team to be outside the top one hundred to make

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00:14:42,880 --> 00:14:45,640
Speaker 4: it to Omaha, let alone to get to the championship series.

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Speaker 4: Do you think this is a true equalizer and if so,

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00:14:48,640 --> 00:14:51,120
Speaker 4: in those first two games, is that going to be

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Speaker 4: enough for them to be able to squeak out a

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00:14:53,360 --> 00:14:55,480
Speaker 4: game three to two, four to three, something like that.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I do.

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Speaker 2: I think it's a major advantage of Coastal Caroline. I'll

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00:14:58,200 --> 00:15:00,280
Speaker 2: tell you why, because that win flipped a little at

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Speaker 2: the beginning of the Arkansas game, and both Arkansas and

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00:15:02,720 --> 00:15:05,280
Speaker 2: LSU were hitting can of corn pop flies that made

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Speaker 2: it to the warning track. When that wind is blowing

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00:15:08,760 --> 00:15:12,040
Speaker 2: at any mile per hour out of right field and

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00:15:12,080 --> 00:15:14,960
Speaker 2: out of center field, pop flies can become home runs

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00:15:15,000 --> 00:15:17,320
Speaker 2: easy from places in the lineup that you didn't expect.

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00:15:18,240 --> 00:15:22,200
Speaker 2: This wind is completely a neutralizer against LSU's powerful offense.

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Speaker 2: And I think you know, when I was up there

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00:15:24,400 --> 00:15:26,040
Speaker 2: for a number of days at the beginning of this

323
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Speaker 2: College World Series, the humidity is just a dome of

324
00:15:28,840 --> 00:15:31,720
Speaker 2: partly cloudy sitting over it with humidity high, and it

325
00:15:31,880 --> 00:15:34,240
Speaker 2: just kind of sucks the water out of everything, including

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Speaker 2: the ball, and the ball doesn't fly. So you know,

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Speaker 2: I think this is a huge advantage for Coastal. I

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Speaker 2: think it plays into their game. They have to get

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Speaker 2: bunts down and a lot of LSU pitchers throw high

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Speaker 2: in the strike zone, and if Coastal is able to

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Speaker 2: manage to get those on the ground, that's a big

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00:15:54,120 --> 00:15:56,440
Speaker 2: advantage for them. So I think this is gonna be

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Speaker 2: a t I do like I think Coastal's going to

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Speaker 2: steal a gamer. I don't know what your thoughts or

335
00:16:00,160 --> 00:16:03,800
Speaker 2: by the way, congrats on you for Coastal LSU exacta.

336
00:16:04,720 --> 00:16:06,840
Speaker 2: But you know, also I was big on Coastal six

337
00:16:06,880 --> 00:16:08,800
Speaker 2: to one, so you know, I'm walking into this with

338
00:16:08,800 --> 00:16:10,880
Speaker 2: a six to one to seven to one, you know,

339
00:16:10,960 --> 00:16:14,080
Speaker 2: for both teams. But you know, if I had to,

340
00:16:14,120 --> 00:16:16,040
Speaker 2: if I brought no money to the table, Calvaries, I

341
00:16:16,040 --> 00:16:18,680
Speaker 2: don't know what you would say, but I think Coastal

342
00:16:18,680 --> 00:16:20,680
Speaker 2: would steal a game here. So I would either take

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00:16:20,720 --> 00:16:22,320
Speaker 2: Coastal to win at all, or I would take a

344
00:16:22,320 --> 00:16:24,080
Speaker 2: two to one LSU win and try to hedge a

345
00:16:24,120 --> 00:16:26,920
Speaker 2: game three because I I just I see Coastal being

346
00:16:27,040 --> 00:16:28,720
Speaker 2: just a complete NAT and I think Game two with

347
00:16:28,920 --> 00:16:30,840
Speaker 2: Jacob Morrison on the mount is where they get it done.

348
00:16:31,360 --> 00:16:33,040
Speaker 4: Oh, I think it's going to game three. We'll touch

349
00:16:33,040 --> 00:16:34,480
Speaker 4: on that in just a second, because I wrote it

350
00:16:34,560 --> 00:16:35,280
Speaker 4: up for action.

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00:16:35,400 --> 00:16:36,160
Speaker 1: It'll post soon.

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00:16:36,240 --> 00:16:38,160
Speaker 4: It'll be in the New York Post on Saturday, A

353
00:16:38,200 --> 00:16:41,040
Speaker 4: plus two fifty five payout for an exact We'll get

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00:16:41,080 --> 00:16:44,160
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380
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00:17:59,040 --> 00:18:02,160
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382
00:18:02,240 --> 00:18:04,119
Speaker 4: to two in New York call the twenty four to

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00:18:04,160 --> 00:18:07,119
Speaker 4: seven hopeline at one eight seven seven eight hope and

384
00:18:07,240 --> 00:18:11,199
Speaker 4: why or text hope and why. All right, before we

385
00:18:11,200 --> 00:18:13,840
Speaker 4: get to our exact predictions on how this is going

386
00:18:13,880 --> 00:18:16,760
Speaker 4: to unfold, the price that you like, the angle that

387
00:18:16,800 --> 00:18:19,199
Speaker 4: you're taking, let's just talk about paths to victory for

388
00:18:19,240 --> 00:18:21,600
Speaker 4: both of these teams. You mentioned it with Coastal needing

389
00:18:21,600 --> 00:18:23,960
Speaker 4: to play with small Ball, but also from a live

390
00:18:24,000 --> 00:18:26,960
Speaker 4: betting perspective, it seems as though LS you can win

391
00:18:26,960 --> 00:18:29,359
Speaker 4: in multitude of ways. They certainly can hang a crooked

392
00:18:29,480 --> 00:18:31,680
Speaker 4: number lead in a game and break open a bullpen.

393
00:18:32,000 --> 00:18:35,280
Speaker 4: But Coastal, is there any value in playing them if

394
00:18:35,320 --> 00:18:37,520
Speaker 4: they were fall to fall down by one or two

395
00:18:37,600 --> 00:18:38,800
Speaker 4: runs in any of these games.

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00:18:39,160 --> 00:18:43,000
Speaker 2: I think the strategy to take is a coastal series

397
00:18:43,080 --> 00:18:46,000
Speaker 2: price or a coastal two to one if you want

398
00:18:46,000 --> 00:18:48,280
Speaker 2: to get into the exotics. And then look at game three,

399
00:18:48,800 --> 00:18:51,639
Speaker 2: because game three I project Riley Ikoff against Zach Cowen

400
00:18:52,320 --> 00:18:54,959
Speaker 2: and that comes in a minus one tennish minus one

401
00:18:55,040 --> 00:18:57,480
Speaker 2: fifteen either way. And so what you're going to be

402
00:18:57,480 --> 00:18:59,720
Speaker 2: able to do is get your plus money props or

403
00:18:59,760 --> 00:19:02,400
Speaker 2: plus money futures in. Now you're going to be able

404
00:19:02,440 --> 00:19:04,240
Speaker 2: to hedge in game three, which should be an evenly

405
00:19:04,280 --> 00:19:06,159
Speaker 2: distributed game. And if it gets to game three, you

406
00:19:06,280 --> 00:19:08,960
Speaker 2: better expect that Anthony Iinsen's been used and Kate Anderson

407
00:19:08,960 --> 00:19:11,760
Speaker 2: has been used, and this is a true level playing field.

408
00:19:11,840 --> 00:19:15,000
Speaker 2: So I don't think Coastal's going down without a fight.

409
00:19:16,440 --> 00:19:18,159
Speaker 2: And I think game three is going to provide us

410
00:19:18,160 --> 00:19:20,280
Speaker 2: with a pretty good coin flip situation to get out

411
00:19:20,320 --> 00:19:22,440
Speaker 2: of any plus money tickets you have in case you're

412
00:19:22,440 --> 00:19:24,199
Speaker 2: feeling a little froggy and you don't want to let

413
00:19:24,200 --> 00:19:24,719
Speaker 2: it ride.

414
00:19:25,800 --> 00:19:26,000
Speaker 1: Now.

415
00:19:26,119 --> 00:19:29,120
Speaker 4: LSU, they've been a team we just saw it came

416
00:19:29,200 --> 00:19:32,879
Speaker 4: back erased multiple late game deficits to knock off Arkansas.

417
00:19:33,440 --> 00:19:35,840
Speaker 4: Is their value in keeping your money in the dugout

418
00:19:35,920 --> 00:19:37,520
Speaker 4: and waiting for them to go down by a run

419
00:19:37,600 --> 00:19:39,240
Speaker 4: or two and then hitting them on a live number.

420
00:19:39,800 --> 00:19:41,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, LSU absolutely.

421
00:19:42,320 --> 00:19:44,399
Speaker 2: I think both of these teams are completely capable of

422
00:19:44,440 --> 00:19:47,159
Speaker 2: coming back, but more LSU. LSU has had their backspin

423
00:19:47,240 --> 00:19:50,560
Speaker 2: to the wall for weeks. They just come back, and

424
00:19:51,520 --> 00:19:54,080
Speaker 2: you know, good for them in their yo yos, happy

425
00:19:54,080 --> 00:19:56,000
Speaker 2: for them because they're not feeling any pressure right now,

426
00:19:56,040 --> 00:19:59,320
Speaker 2: and they're on house money. LSU is absolutely on house money.

427
00:19:59,400 --> 00:20:02,920
Speaker 2: They had almost dead to rights beaten by Little Rock,

428
00:20:04,160 --> 00:20:05,520
Speaker 2: a team that needed to win out and win the

429
00:20:05,520 --> 00:20:08,480
Speaker 2: College World Series to even have a five hundred record.

430
00:20:08,240 --> 00:20:10,000
Speaker 1: Had LSU dead to rights.

431
00:20:10,480 --> 00:20:12,880
Speaker 2: And if you guys have been in a casino and

432
00:20:13,200 --> 00:20:14,840
Speaker 2: you sit down with say five hundred dollars to the

433
00:20:14,840 --> 00:20:17,760
Speaker 2: blackjack table, you get up to fifteen hundred dollars, you're

434
00:20:17,760 --> 00:20:18,520
Speaker 2: on house money.

435
00:20:18,960 --> 00:20:19,240
Speaker 1: All of a.

436
00:20:19,240 --> 00:20:23,480
Speaker 2: Sudden, you're surrendering like sixteen against the twenty. You're doing

437
00:20:23,520 --> 00:20:25,840
Speaker 2: things that you probably wouldn't do. Maybe you're split in

438
00:20:25,920 --> 00:20:27,440
Speaker 2: tens and you see me at the end of the

439
00:20:27,440 --> 00:20:28,879
Speaker 2: table getting up and walking away. I don't know, but

440
00:20:28,880 --> 00:20:31,080
Speaker 2: when you're on house money, start doing stupid shit. And

441
00:20:31,280 --> 00:20:34,520
Speaker 2: LSU right now is on house money and playing like it.

442
00:20:34,520 --> 00:20:36,200
Speaker 2: So I think they can come back from any deficit.

443
00:20:36,400 --> 00:20:38,199
Speaker 2: I don't think they're scared of anything coastal. On the

444
00:20:38,200 --> 00:20:41,560
Speaker 2: other hand, if you're looking at psychological and emotional, all

445
00:20:41,600 --> 00:20:43,560
Speaker 2: I could preach about the last two weeks is that

446
00:20:44,119 --> 00:20:47,639
Speaker 2: Arkansas is wound up like a clock. They're tight, and

447
00:20:47,680 --> 00:20:49,879
Speaker 2: you saw that, and you saw that in the bullpins

448
00:20:50,240 --> 00:20:52,520
Speaker 2: and you saw that in the dugouts tight because they

449
00:20:52,600 --> 00:20:55,720
Speaker 2: knew the pressure in the situation. Coastal has won so

450
00:20:55,800 --> 00:20:57,640
Speaker 2: many games in a row. What happens when they're down?

451
00:20:58,119 --> 00:21:00,479
Speaker 2: What happens if they lose game one? So from an

452
00:21:00,520 --> 00:21:03,840
Speaker 2: emotional perspective and from a live betting perspective, LSU is

453
00:21:03,920 --> 00:21:06,040
Speaker 2: absolutely the team that you would want to more focus

454
00:21:06,080 --> 00:21:07,320
Speaker 2: on when they're down.

455
00:21:08,760 --> 00:21:11,440
Speaker 4: In terms of a prediction, I teased it, I think

456
00:21:11,560 --> 00:21:14,399
Speaker 4: LSU wins this in three games. I just have a

457
00:21:14,440 --> 00:21:17,119
Speaker 4: hard time picturing this Coastal team that has not lost

458
00:21:17,200 --> 00:21:20,119
Speaker 4: in twenty six games. This is a team that doesn't

459
00:21:20,160 --> 00:21:22,000
Speaker 4: just want to win, They expect to win. And it's

460
00:21:22,000 --> 00:21:24,480
Speaker 4: not some cute underdog story. They got a national championship

461
00:21:24,480 --> 00:21:26,280
Speaker 4: trophy at their facility.

462
00:21:26,560 --> 00:21:27,399
Speaker 1: This is a program.

463
00:21:27,520 --> 00:21:30,480
Speaker 4: Yes, they're on a first year coach manager, I should say,

464
00:21:30,480 --> 00:21:32,720
Speaker 4: but he was an All American, a Coastal their first

465
00:21:32,720 --> 00:21:34,520
Speaker 4: in program history in nineteen ninety nine.

466
00:21:34,800 --> 00:21:35,720
Speaker 1: He pisses Teel.

467
00:21:36,560 --> 00:21:41,639
Speaker 4: This entire staff, whether it's the rotation, the bullpen, the

468
00:21:41,680 --> 00:21:44,160
Speaker 4: lineup all the way down to you know, the bat boys.

469
00:21:44,200 --> 00:21:46,880
Speaker 4: Everyone just kind of feels as though they belong here

470
00:21:47,080 --> 00:21:49,119
Speaker 4: and they expect to win, and when you have a

471
00:21:49,119 --> 00:21:51,399
Speaker 4: guy like Morrison in game two to be able to

472
00:21:51,440 --> 00:21:53,600
Speaker 4: fall back on should they not win game one, I

473
00:21:53,640 --> 00:21:55,680
Speaker 4: feel pretty confident in him going out and giving them

474
00:21:55,680 --> 00:21:58,479
Speaker 4: seven really really good innings. So for that reason, at

475
00:21:58,480 --> 00:22:00,600
Speaker 4: plus two to fifty five, I like you to win

476
00:22:00,600 --> 00:22:03,359
Speaker 4: this thing in three because there's just as we mentioned it,

477
00:22:03,440 --> 00:22:05,160
Speaker 4: so many ways for them to win. They could get

478
00:22:05,280 --> 00:22:08,119
Speaker 4: a dynamic pitching performance, they could go ahead and score

479
00:22:08,280 --> 00:22:10,840
Speaker 4: you know, five or six runs at the back end

480
00:22:10,960 --> 00:22:13,439
Speaker 4: of a game break and open a bullpen. So I

481
00:22:13,560 --> 00:22:16,480
Speaker 4: just view this as there's more outs. If you want

482
00:22:16,520 --> 00:22:19,840
Speaker 4: to extend that casino analogy, you're playing a little Texas

483
00:22:19,880 --> 00:22:22,679
Speaker 4: hold them. You have different opportunities to make a flush,

484
00:22:22,800 --> 00:22:25,400
Speaker 4: make a straight, you know, get two pair. There's lots

485
00:22:25,440 --> 00:22:28,360
Speaker 4: of ways that LSU can win, where Coastal I think

486
00:22:28,400 --> 00:22:30,880
Speaker 4: has a narrower path. But they've just been so good

487
00:22:30,880 --> 00:22:33,680
Speaker 4: for so long. And what's also interesting we talked about

488
00:22:33,680 --> 00:22:35,800
Speaker 4: this going back to one of the very first episodes

489
00:22:35,920 --> 00:22:38,600
Speaker 4: from this season. Yes, they played in the Sun Belt,

490
00:22:38,760 --> 00:22:41,119
Speaker 4: but they challenged themselves in the non conference, and they

491
00:22:41,160 --> 00:22:44,359
Speaker 4: played so well on the road consistently. I think that's

492
00:22:44,400 --> 00:22:47,960
Speaker 4: something that really Translate translates it's great to be dominant

493
00:22:48,000 --> 00:22:49,440
Speaker 4: on your home diamond, but you have to be able

494
00:22:49,520 --> 00:22:52,040
Speaker 4: to do it in hostile, you know, environments on the road,

495
00:22:52,160 --> 00:22:53,320
Speaker 4: and then to be able to do it on this

496
00:22:53,400 --> 00:22:55,639
Speaker 4: big stage in Omaha. It's clearly the lights are not

497
00:22:55,760 --> 00:22:57,840
Speaker 4: too bright for the shots. So I'm going to go

498
00:22:57,840 --> 00:22:59,960
Speaker 4: ahead with LSU and three. What's your play here?

499
00:23:00,720 --> 00:23:02,919
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think the play is going to be Coastal

500
00:23:02,960 --> 00:23:05,440
Speaker 2: Carolina plus one fifty five in the market to win

501
00:23:05,520 --> 00:23:08,320
Speaker 2: this thing right now. And this is all numerical base

502
00:23:08,359 --> 00:23:10,880
Speaker 2: because I project LSU to win this series minus one

503
00:23:10,960 --> 00:23:14,159
Speaker 2: seventy five. I agree with you that this goes three games.

504
00:23:14,359 --> 00:23:16,120
Speaker 2: But if you're sitting on a plus one fifty five

505
00:23:16,160 --> 00:23:18,520
Speaker 2: ticket for Coastal, which I think has about fifteen cents

506
00:23:18,520 --> 00:23:21,080
Speaker 2: of value, and you consider that Riley Iikov is going

507
00:23:21,160 --> 00:23:23,040
Speaker 2: to go up probably again Zach Cohen in game three

508
00:23:23,080 --> 00:23:26,320
Speaker 2: with a minus one fifteen projected run projected money line

509
00:23:26,359 --> 00:23:29,240
Speaker 2: on both sides, you're able to take LSU and you're

510
00:23:29,280 --> 00:23:33,040
Speaker 2: able to make some sense of profit with a Coastal

511
00:23:33,040 --> 00:23:35,520
Speaker 2: plus one fifty five and an LSU minus one fifteen.

512
00:23:36,040 --> 00:23:38,919
Speaker 2: So that is my angle I would take coastal and

513
00:23:38,960 --> 00:23:41,240
Speaker 2: I would not hesitate to hedge at LSU at a

514
00:23:41,240 --> 00:23:43,440
Speaker 2: minus one twenty or better in Game three.

515
00:23:44,520 --> 00:23:48,080
Speaker 4: The last thing about Game three going to a reliever,

516
00:23:48,400 --> 00:23:50,199
Speaker 4: putting him in for just his third start of the

517
00:23:50,320 --> 00:23:55,119
Speaker 4: entire season. I think the wide spread of variations and

518
00:23:55,160 --> 00:23:55,919
Speaker 4: what could happen.

519
00:23:56,200 --> 00:23:58,479
Speaker 1: He could pitch an inning, he could pitch five innings.

520
00:23:58,560 --> 00:24:00,920
Speaker 4: He could give up seven runs, as did I believe

521
00:24:00,960 --> 00:24:03,240
Speaker 4: against Little Rock, or he go ahead and pitch a

522
00:24:03,280 --> 00:24:05,159
Speaker 4: gem like he did against Arkansas. I just see this

523
00:24:05,760 --> 00:24:09,840
Speaker 4: wild spread of potential outcomes. So, with that being said,

524
00:24:09,920 --> 00:24:12,680
Speaker 4: in terms of not panicking or on the other side

525
00:24:12,680 --> 00:24:14,800
Speaker 4: of it, trying to hedge out and buy out of

526
00:24:14,800 --> 00:24:16,479
Speaker 4: some of your action, what do you think they need

527
00:24:16,520 --> 00:24:18,520
Speaker 4: to see from him in Game three in terms of

528
00:24:18,800 --> 00:24:21,280
Speaker 4: Johnson and his pitching coach to be able to say

529
00:24:21,320 --> 00:24:23,600
Speaker 4: this is enough to at least buy us two or

530
00:24:23,600 --> 00:24:25,879
Speaker 4: three innings, and if they don't see him bringing his

531
00:24:25,960 --> 00:24:28,240
Speaker 4: good stuff, maybe it's time toe the panic button.

532
00:24:28,240 --> 00:24:29,280
Speaker 1: Keep the ball out of the dirt.

533
00:24:30,200 --> 00:24:32,879
Speaker 2: You notice that the reason Arkansas was able to threaten

534
00:24:33,160 --> 00:24:35,520
Speaker 2: and should have won that game until the second worst

535
00:24:35,560 --> 00:24:38,440
Speaker 2: thing that's happened in Razorback history was because the ball

536
00:24:38,480 --> 00:24:41,320
Speaker 2: was thrown in the dirt. Shores had a problem thrown

537
00:24:41,320 --> 00:24:43,200
Speaker 2: in the dirt. Cowen has a problem thrown in the dirt.

538
00:24:43,240 --> 00:24:45,320
Speaker 2: And if you see I don't know if this is

539
00:24:45,320 --> 00:24:47,480
Speaker 2: going to happen. You see Jayden Newt or any of

540
00:24:47,480 --> 00:24:49,159
Speaker 2: the names that we haven't talked about from the LSU

541
00:24:49,240 --> 00:24:51,560
Speaker 2: pen come running out there out of the bullpen, make

542
00:24:51,560 --> 00:24:54,280
Speaker 2: a live bet on Coastal some of these pictures. I'm

543
00:24:54,280 --> 00:24:56,600
Speaker 2: not saying that they're bad pictures, but they can't keep

544
00:24:56,640 --> 00:24:58,720
Speaker 2: it out of the dirt, and Lsho's catcher has had

545
00:24:58,720 --> 00:25:03,760
Speaker 2: problems containing that, and Coastal is a predator for teams

546
00:25:04,000 --> 00:25:05,480
Speaker 2: for pitchers to throw it in the dirt, and they

547
00:25:05,520 --> 00:25:08,240
Speaker 2: want advanced bass. So if you see Jade Nut coming

548
00:25:08,240 --> 00:25:10,119
Speaker 2: into the game and lsusing a tie ball game or

549
00:25:10,160 --> 00:25:12,840
Speaker 2: something like that, I'd get my live betting going. Because

550
00:25:12,960 --> 00:25:14,920
Speaker 2: Zach Cohen's key is to keep it out of the dirt.

551
00:25:14,960 --> 00:25:17,120
Speaker 2: Chase Shores is key keep it out of the dirt.

552
00:25:17,200 --> 00:25:19,439
Speaker 2: Jade Newt has not proven that he can keep it

553
00:25:19,440 --> 00:25:21,800
Speaker 2: out of the dirt, so that that is going to

554
00:25:21,840 --> 00:25:25,639
Speaker 2: be primary artillery for Coastal to win this series.

555
00:25:26,880 --> 00:25:29,840
Speaker 4: If you've been listening to BBOC throughout the spring and

556
00:25:29,920 --> 00:25:32,840
Speaker 4: into the summer covering college baseball. We really appreciate you

557
00:25:32,920 --> 00:25:35,840
Speaker 4: because this has now become a year round podcast. Right

558
00:25:35,880 --> 00:25:40,600
Speaker 4: around the corner is college Football colin which topic futures, market, team,

559
00:25:40,880 --> 00:25:43,600
Speaker 4: conference angle, coach on the hot seat? What are you

560
00:25:43,720 --> 00:25:46,320
Speaker 4: most excited to talk about when you have your first

561
00:25:46,359 --> 00:25:48,440
Speaker 4: full episode of the season for college football?

562
00:25:49,000 --> 00:25:51,160
Speaker 1: I have this right here for everybody that has a camera.

563
00:25:52,359 --> 00:25:54,040
Speaker 2: I'd just like to say that I'm pretty happy all

564
00:25:54,040 --> 00:25:56,560
Speaker 2: my Clemson futures got down two months ago because there's

565
00:25:56,560 --> 00:25:58,960
Speaker 2: going to be a fever for that team. And I'd

566
00:25:58,960 --> 00:26:03,240
Speaker 2: also like to talk about as you're where. I'd also

567
00:26:03,359 --> 00:26:08,359
Speaker 2: like to say that I think stucky. The second I

568
00:26:08,440 --> 00:26:12,680
Speaker 2: found out John Mattia is coming to OU, I said, Heisman, OU, futures,

569
00:26:12,720 --> 00:26:14,159
Speaker 2: all that, and I think he told me I was

570
00:26:14,160 --> 00:26:15,920
Speaker 2: crazy and we can't do this again, like another year

571
00:26:15,920 --> 00:26:20,679
Speaker 2: of OU love. But if you read the novel that

572
00:26:20,720 --> 00:26:23,200
Speaker 2: I just flashed right there, there's a lot of Sooner love.

573
00:26:24,000 --> 00:26:26,440
Speaker 2: There's a lot of Clems in love, and frankly, I'm

574
00:26:26,440 --> 00:26:29,800
Speaker 2: in love with teams that higher offensive coordinators and bring quarterbacks.

575
00:26:29,320 --> 00:26:31,639
Speaker 1: In through the through the.

576
00:26:31,040 --> 00:26:32,560
Speaker 2: Through the portal, so you can count me in as

577
00:26:32,600 --> 00:26:34,159
Speaker 2: a Utah fan for the Big twelve two. So I

578
00:26:35,119 --> 00:26:37,400
Speaker 2: am very much ready and in other spots, and I've

579
00:26:37,400 --> 00:26:41,160
Speaker 2: heard it out of our podcast that quietly we all

580
00:26:41,480 --> 00:26:45,320
Speaker 2: have been dipping into Southern miss So I take that too.

581
00:26:45,359 --> 00:26:49,479
Speaker 2: But I am I'm amped. I believe we return here

582
00:26:49,480 --> 00:26:53,880
Speaker 2: in a couple of weeks for college football. It's it's

583
00:26:53,920 --> 00:26:55,680
Speaker 2: the most glorious time of the year, so I look

584
00:26:55,720 --> 00:26:56,040
Speaker 2: forward to it.

585
00:26:56,040 --> 00:26:58,280
Speaker 1: Hopefully. That's good. Some good little tidbits for what's going

586
00:26:58,359 --> 00:26:59,320
Speaker 1: to come here in the middle of July.

587
00:27:00,160 --> 00:27:01,880
Speaker 4: The one tidbit I want to throw in I wrote

588
00:27:01,880 --> 00:27:03,560
Speaker 4: it up for action. I want to say about a

589
00:27:03,600 --> 00:27:06,639
Speaker 4: month ago. I think we're firmly at the beginning of

590
00:27:06,720 --> 00:27:09,440
Speaker 4: the Mulligan era of college football as it relates to

591
00:27:09,480 --> 00:27:12,120
Speaker 4: winning the national Championship. One hundred and fifty four years

592
00:27:12,160 --> 00:27:15,800
Speaker 4: of college football, there was exactly one undisputed two loss champion.

593
00:27:16,000 --> 00:27:18,080
Speaker 4: That was LSU in two thousand and seven, the craziest

594
00:27:18,119 --> 00:27:21,240
Speaker 4: year in college schoopol history. Upsets left and right. LSU

595
00:27:21,280 --> 00:27:24,160
Speaker 4: was actually undefeated in regulation for that year, but they

596
00:27:24,160 --> 00:27:27,200
Speaker 4: did win the Natty with two losses. Now we triple

597
00:27:27,240 --> 00:27:30,000
Speaker 4: the field and then lo and behold immediately Ohio State

598
00:27:30,040 --> 00:27:32,800
Speaker 4: wins it with two losses. I think the beauty of

599
00:27:32,840 --> 00:27:35,000
Speaker 4: this is that there's going to be some really good

600
00:27:35,119 --> 00:27:37,479
Speaker 4: numbers if you're patient, and I'll give you an example

601
00:27:37,560 --> 00:27:40,320
Speaker 4: Ohio State Texas. I like both of those teams.

602
00:27:40,400 --> 00:27:41,560
Speaker 1: I am not betting them.

603
00:27:41,400 --> 00:27:44,240
Speaker 4: In the preseason futures market because why would I I

604
00:27:44,280 --> 00:27:46,280
Speaker 4: can get one of them right off of that loss.

605
00:27:46,480 --> 00:27:49,640
Speaker 4: I think there's going to be natural overreaction by the public,

606
00:27:49,960 --> 00:27:52,160
Speaker 4: and even in previous seasons, if you want to lose,

607
00:27:52,160 --> 00:27:54,000
Speaker 4: you want to lose early. But the fact of the

608
00:27:54,000 --> 00:27:56,480
Speaker 4: matter is for teams in the Big Ten and the SEC,

609
00:27:56,640 --> 00:27:58,840
Speaker 4: you can lose twice and make the playoff. Absolutely. I

610
00:27:58,880 --> 00:28:00,960
Speaker 4: think we're probably going to see a three loss team

611
00:28:01,119 --> 00:28:03,160
Speaker 4: out of the Big Ten or SEC make the playoffs

612
00:28:03,240 --> 00:28:06,000
Speaker 4: either this year or next year, depending on the format.

613
00:28:06,200 --> 00:28:08,960
Speaker 4: So I think there's just great opportunity in this Mulligan

614
00:28:09,000 --> 00:28:12,879
Speaker 4: era to get more value on teams that the public

615
00:28:12,960 --> 00:28:15,760
Speaker 4: sells on far too early. So that and so many topics,

616
00:28:15,800 --> 00:28:17,520
Speaker 4: We're going to go deep into the G five lands

617
00:28:17,600 --> 00:28:20,919
Speaker 4: as always in the BBOC podcast. I'm excited to deliver

618
00:28:21,000 --> 00:28:23,800
Speaker 4: that throughout the season. For Colin Wilson. I'm Mike Calberies.

619
00:28:23,800 --> 00:28:25,400
Speaker 4: Thank you so much for listening to the Big Bets

620
00:28:25,440 --> 00:28:29,680
Speaker 4: on Campus podcast. This completes our college baseball coverage. Enjoy

621
00:28:29,720 --> 00:28:32,560
Speaker 4: the championship series in Omaha, and as always, best of

622
00:28:32,640 --> 00:28:46,520
Speaker 4: luck with all your bets. Action Network reminds you please

623
00:28:46,560 --> 00:28:49,959
Speaker 4: gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has

624
00:28:50,000 --> 00:28:53,080
Speaker 4: a gambling problem, help is available twenty four to seven

625
00:28:53,280 --> 00:28:54,720
Speaker 4: at one eight hundred Gambler