1 00:00:00,240 --> 00:00:07,200 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:09,600 --> 00:00:13,039 Speaker 2: With on again, off again tariffs, renewed inflation concerns, and 3 00:00:13,119 --> 00:00:17,280 Speaker 2: turbulence in financial markets, there's a question on everyone's mind. 4 00:00:17,720 --> 00:00:21,799 Speaker 2: Are we headed for a recession? As early as last week, 5 00:00:22,200 --> 00:00:24,720 Speaker 2: Goldman Sachs was saying it was more likely than not. 6 00:00:25,520 --> 00:00:28,600 Speaker 2: So is JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Diamond, who went 7 00:00:28,640 --> 00:00:31,640 Speaker 2: on Fox Business after the first round of President Trump's 8 00:00:31,640 --> 00:00:34,159 Speaker 2: reciprocal tariffs on China went into effect. 9 00:00:34,400 --> 00:00:36,320 Speaker 3: Do you personally expect a recession? 10 00:00:37,000 --> 00:00:39,600 Speaker 1: I am going to defer to my economousness point, but 11 00:00:39,600 --> 00:00:41,800 Speaker 1: I think probably that's a likely outcome. 12 00:00:41,960 --> 00:00:44,960 Speaker 2: But then Trump paused some of his tariffs, and Goldman 13 00:00:45,040 --> 00:00:49,400 Speaker 2: Sachs rescinded its recession forecast. On Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chair 14 00:00:49,520 --> 00:00:52,000 Speaker 2: Jerome Powell shared the Fed's economic outlook. 15 00:00:52,280 --> 00:00:56,240 Speaker 1: Despite heightened uncertainty and downside risks, the US economy is 16 00:00:56,280 --> 00:01:00,200 Speaker 1: still in a solid position. The labor market is at 17 00:01:00,320 --> 00:01:04,679 Speaker 1: or near maximum employment, Inflation has come down a great deal, 18 00:01:04,920 --> 00:01:08,080 Speaker 1: but is still running a bit above our two percent objective. 19 00:01:08,800 --> 00:01:12,360 Speaker 2: Powell also shared that early data suggests that GDP growth 20 00:01:12,400 --> 00:01:16,600 Speaker 2: has slowed but not reversed. Still, consumer sentiment is it 21 00:01:16,760 --> 00:01:20,880 Speaker 2: nearly record lows? And all over social media everything seems 22 00:01:20,920 --> 00:01:24,520 Speaker 2: to be a recession indicator, subtle signs people notice in 23 00:01:24,560 --> 00:01:27,240 Speaker 2: their daily lives suggesting we could be on the brink 24 00:01:27,280 --> 00:01:28,039 Speaker 2: of a downturn. 25 00:01:29,040 --> 00:01:31,400 Speaker 1: You want to know the craziest recession indicator I saw 26 00:01:31,440 --> 00:01:34,960 Speaker 1: today a bagel shop was advertising free water phase. 27 00:01:34,959 --> 00:01:38,160 Speaker 2: Sixty percent of general admission ticket buyers at Coachella used 28 00:01:38,160 --> 00:01:41,160 Speaker 2: buy now, pay later to finance their tickets, And ladies 29 00:01:41,160 --> 00:01:43,840 Speaker 2: and gentlemen, some of these are more serious than others. 30 00:01:44,000 --> 00:01:47,680 Speaker 1: Here are my recession indicators. Katie Perry going to space. 31 00:01:48,480 --> 00:01:49,720 Speaker 1: Flash mobs are back. 32 00:01:49,840 --> 00:01:51,320 Speaker 3: I saw one in Grand Central the other day and 33 00:01:51,360 --> 00:01:53,040 Speaker 3: I said, that's a bad sign for the times. 34 00:01:53,600 --> 00:01:57,920 Speaker 2: The general takeaway is the vibes are off, so are 35 00:01:57,960 --> 00:02:00,240 Speaker 2: we headed for recession? How will we know if we 36 00:02:00,320 --> 00:02:02,920 Speaker 2: get there? And how much does that label really matter? 37 00:02:06,200 --> 00:02:08,080 Speaker 2: I'm David Gera and this is the big take from 38 00:02:08,080 --> 00:02:12,000 Speaker 2: Bloomberg News Today. On the show, John Authurs, Bloomberg Senior 39 00:02:12,040 --> 00:02:15,239 Speaker 2: Markets editor and a columnist for Bloomberg Opinion, will help 40 00:02:15,320 --> 00:02:19,920 Speaker 2: us parse the official and unofficial recession indicators and understand 41 00:02:19,960 --> 00:02:28,640 Speaker 2: what lies ahead. John, a basic question to start right 42 00:02:28,680 --> 00:02:31,000 Speaker 2: out at econ one oh one. What is a recession? 43 00:02:31,040 --> 00:02:31,720 Speaker 2: Define it for me. 44 00:02:32,840 --> 00:02:36,000 Speaker 3: It's a more complicated question than you think. A recession 45 00:02:36,080 --> 00:02:39,640 Speaker 3: is when not only does growth slow down, but the 46 00:02:39,680 --> 00:02:45,080 Speaker 3: size of the economy actually contracts, which doesn't happen that often. 47 00:02:45,520 --> 00:02:47,880 Speaker 3: The most common way to measure that is through gross 48 00:02:47,919 --> 00:02:52,760 Speaker 3: domestic product. The most obvious symptom of it is unemployment. 49 00:02:53,280 --> 00:02:58,639 Speaker 3: The standard shorthands definition is two successive quarters of negative 50 00:02:58,720 --> 00:03:05,000 Speaker 3: GDP growth, But that's a shorthand definition. Ultimately, it's the 51 00:03:05,040 --> 00:03:08,359 Speaker 3: pot of Stuart's definition of pornography. I know it when 52 00:03:08,400 --> 00:03:11,880 Speaker 3: I see it. That's a Supreme Court quotation I've just 53 00:03:11,919 --> 00:03:14,800 Speaker 3: given you there. But generally speaking, if you have to 54 00:03:14,880 --> 00:03:17,919 Speaker 3: question whether you're in a recession, you probably aren't. And 55 00:03:18,200 --> 00:03:19,720 Speaker 3: if you are, you know all about it. 56 00:03:20,440 --> 00:03:22,880 Speaker 2: Who effectively knows it when they see it? I gather 57 00:03:23,000 --> 00:03:25,799 Speaker 2: the National Bureau of Economic Research plays an outsize role 58 00:03:25,800 --> 00:03:27,680 Speaker 2: here in determining whether or not we are, in fact 59 00:03:27,919 --> 00:03:28,639 Speaker 2: in a recession. 60 00:03:28,960 --> 00:03:31,440 Speaker 3: Yes, so the default definition of a recession in the 61 00:03:31,560 --> 00:03:38,320 Speaker 3: US is when the NBER says, so, you know, big 62 00:03:38,520 --> 00:03:42,320 Speaker 3: group of very good academic economists and the lots of 63 00:03:42,440 --> 00:03:49,440 Speaker 3: government backing behind them, and they take many things into account. Obviously, unemployment, 64 00:03:49,560 --> 00:03:53,680 Speaker 3: gross domestic product mattering more than anything else. The big 65 00:03:53,880 --> 00:03:58,320 Speaker 3: problem with the NBR approach for the purposes of history, 66 00:03:58,360 --> 00:04:00,840 Speaker 3: for the purposes of analyzing data looking back to see 67 00:04:00,880 --> 00:04:05,080 Speaker 3: what happens during recessions, it's brilliant. In real time, it's 68 00:04:05,120 --> 00:04:08,640 Speaker 3: close to useless, because it's of the nature of a 69 00:04:08,680 --> 00:04:10,800 Speaker 3: recession that it needs to go on for a while, 70 00:04:11,560 --> 00:04:14,000 Speaker 3: a matter of months before you're sure it's a recession. 71 00:04:14,520 --> 00:04:18,560 Speaker 3: If you wait until the NBER announces that we are 72 00:04:18,600 --> 00:04:21,960 Speaker 3: indeed in a recession, it's almost certainly too late if 73 00:04:22,000 --> 00:04:24,560 Speaker 3: you're a business making a decision, or particularly if you're 74 00:04:24,600 --> 00:04:27,960 Speaker 3: an investor choosing about the stock market. So my favorite 75 00:04:27,960 --> 00:04:30,640 Speaker 3: example is two thousand and eight, year of the global 76 00:04:30,680 --> 00:04:34,200 Speaker 3: financial crisis. The NBR didn't make that announcement until the 77 00:04:34,200 --> 00:04:38,040 Speaker 3: first of December, by which point Lehman Brothers had gone bankrupt. 78 00:04:38,480 --> 00:04:42,719 Speaker 3: The stock market had dropped almost fifty percent. At that point. 79 00:04:43,040 --> 00:04:44,880 Speaker 3: From the point of view of decisions in the here 80 00:04:44,920 --> 00:04:48,680 Speaker 3: and now, the NBER is not helpful for looking back. 81 00:04:48,720 --> 00:04:50,720 Speaker 3: For doing analysis, it's the gold standard. 82 00:04:50,720 --> 00:04:53,160 Speaker 2: I think there are other groups who move faster and 83 00:04:53,200 --> 00:04:56,160 Speaker 2: here I'm thinking about economists at the big financial firms. 84 00:04:56,279 --> 00:04:58,880 Speaker 2: Who's saying that we are headed for a recession right now, 85 00:04:58,960 --> 00:05:01,040 Speaker 2: at this moment in time in twenty twenty. 86 00:05:00,760 --> 00:05:06,760 Speaker 3: Five naming names is very few people are saying there's 87 00:05:06,760 --> 00:05:09,479 Speaker 3: one hundred percent chance of a recession, which is interesting 88 00:05:09,520 --> 00:05:11,400 Speaker 3: because two years ago quite a few people were saying 89 00:05:11,400 --> 00:05:14,479 Speaker 3: that and it didn't happen. More or less, everybody on 90 00:05:14,520 --> 00:05:18,480 Speaker 3: the street has formally raised their probability of a recession 91 00:05:18,680 --> 00:05:22,480 Speaker 3: in the wake of particularly the Liberation Day tariffs. But 92 00:05:22,560 --> 00:05:27,000 Speaker 3: just the sheer uncertainty that the tariff environment causes makes 93 00:05:27,040 --> 00:05:29,760 Speaker 3: it that much more likely that the economy will slow down. 94 00:05:30,920 --> 00:05:33,840 Speaker 3: The thing that's fascinating here is the soft data versus 95 00:05:33,839 --> 00:05:37,360 Speaker 3: the hard data. This is the sentiment data. Yeah, sentiment data, 96 00:05:37,360 --> 00:05:40,680 Speaker 3: but some of it's pretty practical sentiments. So the ism 97 00:05:40,880 --> 00:05:44,560 Speaker 3: supply Manager's survey is asking you, are your prices you're 98 00:05:44,560 --> 00:05:46,839 Speaker 3: having to pay going up or going down? Are you 99 00:05:46,920 --> 00:05:50,000 Speaker 3: building your own inventory or reducing it, etc. So it's 100 00:05:50,040 --> 00:05:52,839 Speaker 3: a survey and it includes some sentiment, but it's not 101 00:05:53,200 --> 00:05:59,719 Speaker 3: purely sentimental. Now, the soft data suggests we're already in 102 00:05:59,720 --> 00:06:04,000 Speaker 3: a the way that confidence of small businesses, the confidence 103 00:06:04,040 --> 00:06:08,560 Speaker 3: of consumers has dropped in the last few months has 104 00:06:08,720 --> 00:06:12,240 Speaker 3: never happened before unless we've subsequently been in a recession. 105 00:06:12,960 --> 00:06:16,000 Speaker 3: That said, the hard data that the last unemployment numbers 106 00:06:16,040 --> 00:06:19,760 Speaker 3: were fine and inflation is coming down nicely. The hard 107 00:06:19,880 --> 00:06:24,919 Speaker 3: data is still basically the technical terms might possibly be 108 00:06:25,000 --> 00:06:28,920 Speaker 3: mid cycle slow down, but basically no particular reason from 109 00:06:28,960 --> 00:06:31,919 Speaker 3: the most important data to think that we are already 110 00:06:31,920 --> 00:06:37,520 Speaker 3: in a recession. This is primarily about the amazing goings 111 00:06:37,520 --> 00:06:40,440 Speaker 3: on about trade policy, which we all know about by 112 00:06:40,480 --> 00:06:43,120 Speaker 3: this point, and the way people are reacting to them, 113 00:06:43,160 --> 00:06:48,280 Speaker 3: and how those reactions are changing their decisions in real time. 114 00:06:48,600 --> 00:06:51,000 Speaker 2: I'm curious as you look at sort of what the 115 00:06:51,040 --> 00:06:53,440 Speaker 2: banks are saying about the probability of a recession and 116 00:06:53,760 --> 00:06:56,600 Speaker 2: what they're actually doing, how they're positioning themselves. Is there 117 00:06:56,600 --> 00:06:58,280 Speaker 2: any sort of divide there. 118 00:06:58,520 --> 00:07:00,880 Speaker 3: On the banks. I don't see that much in the 119 00:07:00,880 --> 00:07:05,000 Speaker 3: way of true retrenchment already by the banks. I don't 120 00:07:05,000 --> 00:07:08,440 Speaker 3: think somebody like Jamie Diamond is as sanguine as he 121 00:07:08,680 --> 00:07:11,560 Speaker 3: was unless he means it. You don't talk down the 122 00:07:11,600 --> 00:07:15,240 Speaker 3: economy if you're somebody like that, unless you really believe 123 00:07:15,560 --> 00:07:19,400 Speaker 3: it's necessary and responsible to do so. Jamie DIMIs had 124 00:07:19,440 --> 00:07:21,800 Speaker 3: an exciting and checkered career, but he doesn't you know, 125 00:07:21,880 --> 00:07:26,000 Speaker 3: he doesn't do alarmism. So I'm most interested in the 126 00:07:26,040 --> 00:07:28,840 Speaker 3: next couple of weeks when we hear from the companies 127 00:07:28,880 --> 00:07:31,800 Speaker 3: that make things, and particularly obviously to think the companies 128 00:07:31,840 --> 00:07:35,040 Speaker 3: that import and exports a lot of actual stuff rather 129 00:07:35,080 --> 00:07:38,320 Speaker 3: than services, and that's when we'll really get an idea. 130 00:07:38,760 --> 00:07:40,480 Speaker 3: But I do believe the banks when they say they're 131 00:07:40,480 --> 00:07:42,280 Speaker 3: bracing for tougher times. 132 00:07:43,840 --> 00:07:47,120 Speaker 2: Wall Street economists have updated their forecasts, and people who 133 00:07:47,120 --> 00:07:50,880 Speaker 2: play the prediction markets like Polymarket, are weighing in what 134 00:07:51,040 --> 00:07:54,800 Speaker 2: they expect and some of John's top recession indicators. After 135 00:07:54,840 --> 00:08:05,520 Speaker 2: the break, I'm speaking with John Arthurs. He's a senior 136 00:08:05,560 --> 00:08:08,560 Speaker 2: markets editor at Bloomberg and a columnist for Bloomberg Opinion. 137 00:08:09,400 --> 00:08:11,400 Speaker 2: You wrote about this in your column that the betting 138 00:08:11,440 --> 00:08:14,840 Speaker 2: markets and what those betting on the markets are telling 139 00:08:14,880 --> 00:08:17,480 Speaker 2: you about their sense of the likelihood of a recession. 140 00:08:17,680 --> 00:08:19,400 Speaker 2: What are you seeing when you look at polymarket and. 141 00:08:19,360 --> 00:08:23,000 Speaker 3: The like Polymarket, which during the election, you remember, was 142 00:08:23,120 --> 00:08:26,960 Speaker 3: accused not totally fairly of being somewhat right wing or 143 00:08:27,120 --> 00:08:32,360 Speaker 3: pro Trump biased, saw a chance of a recession of 144 00:08:33,360 --> 00:08:36,800 Speaker 3: somewhat under twenty percent at the beginning of the year, 145 00:08:37,559 --> 00:08:40,520 Speaker 3: which was a little on the bearish side. It got 146 00:08:40,720 --> 00:08:45,080 Speaker 3: over sixty percent before Trump pulled back on the main 147 00:08:45,240 --> 00:08:48,240 Speaker 3: reciprocal tariffs the ninety day pause. It's still at this 148 00:08:48,320 --> 00:08:51,800 Speaker 3: point over fifty percent that we have a recession by 149 00:08:51,840 --> 00:08:53,760 Speaker 3: the end of this year, which needs to be triggered 150 00:08:53,760 --> 00:08:57,520 Speaker 3: by the NBER saying so, or by two quarters of 151 00:08:57,559 --> 00:09:01,360 Speaker 3: GDP being negative, which means means that you shouldn't be 152 00:09:01,360 --> 00:09:03,640 Speaker 3: making that bet. You shouldn't be thinking it's that probable 153 00:09:03,720 --> 00:09:07,160 Speaker 3: unless you think the recession has probably already started. The 154 00:09:07,200 --> 00:09:11,400 Speaker 3: people who play on polymarket do have real money at stake, 155 00:09:11,800 --> 00:09:14,839 Speaker 3: and that means that you should take them quite seriously. 156 00:09:15,600 --> 00:09:18,320 Speaker 3: The mere fact that people think that makes it more 157 00:09:18,400 --> 00:09:21,760 Speaker 3: likely that you get a self fulfilling prophecy that people 158 00:09:21,760 --> 00:09:24,480 Speaker 3: are just their behavior accordingly spend less and you get 159 00:09:24,520 --> 00:09:25,040 Speaker 3: a recession. 160 00:09:25,360 --> 00:09:28,400 Speaker 2: John, we've been talking about the statistics, the data professional 161 00:09:28,440 --> 00:09:30,520 Speaker 2: economists used to determine if there is a recession or 162 00:09:30,520 --> 00:09:32,640 Speaker 2: there's likely to be one. Let's talk about some of 163 00:09:32,679 --> 00:09:35,240 Speaker 2: the unofficial indicators that could give us a sense of 164 00:09:35,440 --> 00:09:37,800 Speaker 2: where the economy is right now and where it's headed. 165 00:09:38,280 --> 00:09:41,200 Speaker 2: Are there any that you look to maybe softer signs 166 00:09:41,240 --> 00:09:44,040 Speaker 2: that the vibes are off in the economy. 167 00:09:44,480 --> 00:09:48,080 Speaker 3: In terms of the numbers, I look at things that 168 00:09:48,200 --> 00:09:51,960 Speaker 3: do bother me somewhat. FedEx's share price has been doing 169 00:09:52,160 --> 00:09:55,480 Speaker 3: very badly. Significance of that is, obviously if there is 170 00:09:55,520 --> 00:09:58,760 Speaker 3: a purer play on globalization and on level of economic 171 00:09:58,840 --> 00:10:02,200 Speaker 3: activity than FedEx. I can't really think what it is. 172 00:10:02,600 --> 00:10:05,520 Speaker 3: And the fact that its share price is going down 173 00:10:05,760 --> 00:10:10,280 Speaker 3: isn't all top down globalization is in trouble. Better gets 174 00:10:10,320 --> 00:10:12,559 Speaker 3: out of FedEx. It's people looking at their numbers and 175 00:10:12,640 --> 00:10:15,400 Speaker 3: looking at what the company is saying and thinking they'd 176 00:10:15,440 --> 00:10:19,040 Speaker 3: better get out. And by the way, that implies the 177 00:10:19,080 --> 00:10:22,199 Speaker 3: economy is slowing down. That one does actually concern me 178 00:10:22,280 --> 00:10:26,680 Speaker 3: quite a bit. Another measure that isn't fool proof, but 179 00:10:26,720 --> 00:10:30,800 Speaker 3: again because so many real people are playing with real 180 00:10:30,880 --> 00:10:35,200 Speaker 3: money in a way that can have self fulfilling consequences, 181 00:10:35,320 --> 00:10:39,880 Speaker 3: is the metals market. The ratio of gold to copper, 182 00:10:40,000 --> 00:10:42,760 Speaker 3: the amount of copper you could buy with an ounce 183 00:10:42,800 --> 00:10:47,000 Speaker 3: of gold, has never been higher. Copper is basically something 184 00:10:47,080 --> 00:10:50,160 Speaker 3: you buy when the economy is doing well, particularly when 185 00:10:50,240 --> 00:10:53,840 Speaker 3: China is electrifying and building stuff, or when people are 186 00:10:53,840 --> 00:10:57,080 Speaker 3: building lots of cars and houses. Gold is something you 187 00:10:57,120 --> 00:10:59,560 Speaker 3: buy when you're worried, when you can't think of anything 188 00:10:59,720 --> 00:11:01,840 Speaker 3: better to do with your money than put it in 189 00:11:02,040 --> 00:11:05,360 Speaker 3: the shiny metal and it'll be safe. So I take 190 00:11:05,400 --> 00:11:08,320 Speaker 3: that pretty seriously as an indicator that things aren't good. 191 00:11:08,800 --> 00:11:11,160 Speaker 2: As you look at all of the data, hard and soft, 192 00:11:11,679 --> 00:11:13,520 Speaker 2: where are you on this question of whether or not 193 00:11:13,640 --> 00:11:15,319 Speaker 2: we are in a recession or headed for one? 194 00:11:15,559 --> 00:11:18,040 Speaker 3: This is the agonizing part of it. It really does 195 00:11:18,080 --> 00:11:22,480 Speaker 3: depend on trade. If tariffs on China stay at about 196 00:11:22,480 --> 00:11:25,200 Speaker 3: one hundred and forty percent for any length of time, 197 00:11:25,960 --> 00:11:28,920 Speaker 3: there has to be a recession. I don't see how 198 00:11:28,960 --> 00:11:33,200 Speaker 3: there cannot be. The latest World Trade Organization estimates are that, 199 00:11:33,760 --> 00:11:38,640 Speaker 3: assuming these level of tariffs, imports to the US from 200 00:11:38,720 --> 00:11:41,760 Speaker 3: China are going to be down seventy percent. If you 201 00:11:41,800 --> 00:11:46,640 Speaker 3: think how important those imports are, there's no way you 202 00:11:46,679 --> 00:11:50,439 Speaker 3: can source that adequately from anybody else. In the very 203 00:11:50,480 --> 00:11:54,319 Speaker 3: short term. It will mean shortages, it will mean factories 204 00:11:54,360 --> 00:11:58,240 Speaker 3: having to go on pause. If we really stick with 205 00:11:58,360 --> 00:12:01,680 Speaker 3: the tariffs that's currently laid out, there will be a recession. 206 00:12:01,720 --> 00:12:06,600 Speaker 3: I would be astonished if there wasn't. My best guess 207 00:12:06,960 --> 00:12:09,840 Speaker 3: as to where trade policy is going to go, is 208 00:12:09,920 --> 00:12:11,960 Speaker 3: that it's going to do enough damage that we will 209 00:12:12,320 --> 00:12:14,880 Speaker 3: fall into something the NBAR calls a recession by the 210 00:12:14,960 --> 00:12:15,560 Speaker 3: end of this year. 211 00:12:16,000 --> 00:12:20,520 Speaker 2: Here's a big think question. I'm curious how much naming 212 00:12:20,559 --> 00:12:23,480 Speaker 2: a recession a recession matters. So, going back to what 213 00:12:23,520 --> 00:12:25,920 Speaker 2: you said at the top, you know, when you see it, 214 00:12:26,200 --> 00:12:29,400 Speaker 2: if people are feeling economic hardship, they know the reality 215 00:12:29,440 --> 00:12:32,880 Speaker 2: of the economy today themselves. Does it matter if we're 216 00:12:32,920 --> 00:12:35,080 Speaker 2: technically labeling something a recession or not. 217 00:12:36,000 --> 00:12:41,160 Speaker 3: It probably does a little because this is a concept 218 00:12:41,160 --> 00:12:45,600 Speaker 3: from George Soros, the hedge fund manager. He bases his 219 00:12:45,800 --> 00:12:50,120 Speaker 3: whole investments approach around reflexivity, which is his idea that 220 00:12:50,840 --> 00:12:54,400 Speaker 3: markets can create their own reality. So in terms of information, 221 00:12:54,480 --> 00:12:56,960 Speaker 3: if you think prices are going to go up, you 222 00:12:57,000 --> 00:13:00,960 Speaker 3: go out and buy stuff now and before you need it, 223 00:13:01,679 --> 00:13:04,320 Speaker 3: So there is more buying going on now, which pushes 224 00:13:04,400 --> 00:13:08,600 Speaker 3: up the prices, which creates the inflation. And similarly, if 225 00:13:08,600 --> 00:13:11,040 Speaker 3: people are scared about bonds and they sell bonds and 226 00:13:11,080 --> 00:13:13,600 Speaker 3: the rates go up, then that has an effect on 227 00:13:13,600 --> 00:13:17,280 Speaker 3: the economy because the rates on the bond matter that 228 00:13:17,360 --> 00:13:22,080 Speaker 3: much to the economy. So if you actually say there's 229 00:13:22,120 --> 00:13:25,840 Speaker 3: a recession. It does matter. That said, I think the 230 00:13:25,920 --> 00:13:30,480 Speaker 3: experience of the last ten twenty years, and particularly the 231 00:13:30,520 --> 00:13:33,760 Speaker 3: experience of Biden, does suggest that it might not matter 232 00:13:33,960 --> 00:13:38,680 Speaker 3: that much. The hard data is fairly clear that there 233 00:13:38,760 --> 00:13:43,280 Speaker 3: wasn't an aggregate recession under Joe Biden. There were two 234 00:13:43,400 --> 00:13:48,480 Speaker 3: successive quarters of very slight declines in GDP growth. I 235 00:13:48,480 --> 00:13:51,600 Speaker 3: know very few people who really think that that was 236 00:13:51,640 --> 00:13:57,240 Speaker 3: a true recession, people who do economics for living that said, 237 00:13:57,640 --> 00:13:59,760 Speaker 3: you only need to see what happened in the election, 238 00:13:59,840 --> 00:14:03,560 Speaker 3: You only need to take the slightest vibe just to 239 00:14:03,640 --> 00:14:05,680 Speaker 3: keep your eyes open as you walk down the streets. 240 00:14:05,840 --> 00:14:09,480 Speaker 3: Anywhere in this country, it felt like a recession for 241 00:14:10,240 --> 00:14:14,439 Speaker 3: a huge proportion of people, and they acted accordingly. 242 00:14:15,320 --> 00:14:17,960 Speaker 2: Do you think that George Soros would say that us 243 00:14:18,080 --> 00:14:22,160 Speaker 2: having this conversation is an example of reflexivity that by 244 00:14:22,240 --> 00:14:25,560 Speaker 2: us talking about the sort of zeitgeist feeling that there 245 00:14:25,640 --> 00:14:28,160 Speaker 2: is a recession or could be a recession soon, is 246 00:14:28,280 --> 00:14:29,280 Speaker 2: likely to feed into it. 247 00:14:29,680 --> 00:14:33,480 Speaker 3: Yes, I mean, that's always the accusation made against any 248 00:14:33,480 --> 00:14:35,680 Speaker 3: of us in the media, but there's some degree of 249 00:14:36,520 --> 00:14:40,120 Speaker 3: truth to it. One of the standard things politicians say 250 00:14:40,160 --> 00:14:43,040 Speaker 3: when oppositions say the economy is terrible, is you're talking 251 00:14:43,080 --> 00:14:45,360 Speaker 3: down the economy. The economy would be fine if you 252 00:14:45,360 --> 00:14:49,000 Speaker 3: wouldn't stop saying nasty things about it. There is a 253 00:14:49,040 --> 00:14:52,920 Speaker 3: degree of truth to that. I don't think you or 254 00:14:52,960 --> 00:14:56,920 Speaker 3: I having this conversation is really going to make people 255 00:14:57,760 --> 00:15:01,960 Speaker 3: sell all their stock portfolios and lock up their factory. 256 00:15:02,280 --> 00:15:05,520 Speaker 3: But George Soros would definitely say that the zeitsgeist, the 257 00:15:05,680 --> 00:15:09,360 Speaker 3: broader sentiment, the more and more people talk about these 258 00:15:09,400 --> 00:15:13,920 Speaker 3: things that, yes, that can create the perceptions of reality 259 00:15:13,960 --> 00:15:15,400 Speaker 3: can change the actual reality. 260 00:15:16,560 --> 00:15:18,160 Speaker 2: John, thank you very much, appreciate it. 261 00:15:18,240 --> 00:15:18,600 Speaker 1: Thank you. 262 00:15:22,600 --> 00:15:25,120 Speaker 2: This is the Big Take from Bloomberg News. I'm David Gera. 263 00:15:25,600 --> 00:15:28,760 Speaker 2: This episode was produced by Julia Press. It was edited 264 00:15:28,760 --> 00:15:32,240 Speaker 2: by Aaron Edwards, Tracy Sanielson, and Mollie Smith. It was 265 00:15:32,280 --> 00:15:35,440 Speaker 2: fact checked by Adriana Tapia and mixed and sound designed 266 00:15:35,440 --> 00:15:39,200 Speaker 2: by Alex Sagura. Our senior producer is Naomi Shaven. Our 267 00:15:39,240 --> 00:15:43,240 Speaker 2: senior editor is Elizabeth Ponso. Our deputy executive producer is 268 00:15:43,320 --> 00:15:47,280 Speaker 2: Julia Weaver. Our executive producer is Nicole Beemster. Bor Sage 269 00:15:47,280 --> 00:15:51,040 Speaker 2: Bauman is Bloomberg's head of podcast. If you liked this episode, 270 00:15:51,040 --> 00:15:53,240 Speaker 2: make sure to subscribe and review The Big Take. Wherever 271 00:15:53,320 --> 00:15:55,880 Speaker 2: you listen to podcasts, it helps people find the show. 272 00:15:56,440 --> 00:16:03,200 Speaker 2: Thanks for listening. We'll be back next week.