1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:13,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg 2 00:00:13,840 --> 00:00:17,920 Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern 3 00:00:18,200 --> 00:00:22,000 Speaker 1: on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. 4 00:00:22,360 --> 00:00:25,680 Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 5 00:00:25,760 --> 00:00:26,960 Speaker 1: us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:27,160 --> 00:00:30,920 Speaker 2: Right now, we start strong who everybody wants to hear from? 7 00:00:31,520 --> 00:00:36,680 Speaker 3: Henrietta trays within the trenches experience on Capitol Hill. Henrietta, 8 00:00:36,800 --> 00:00:40,600 Speaker 3: one of the fam this morning said what's next? Henrietta trays, 9 00:00:40,880 --> 00:00:41,680 Speaker 3: what's next? 10 00:00:43,120 --> 00:00:44,280 Speaker 4: That is a fair question. 11 00:00:45,080 --> 00:00:47,519 Speaker 5: Well, we are going to go through the same motions 12 00:00:47,520 --> 00:00:50,440 Speaker 5: we went through last night, keep voting on two bills 13 00:00:50,479 --> 00:00:52,040 Speaker 5: that don't have enough boats to pass. 14 00:00:52,479 --> 00:00:54,720 Speaker 4: We'll take a break on Thursday, observe. 15 00:00:54,480 --> 00:00:56,880 Speaker 5: Y'am Kapor, come back on Friday and see if things 16 00:00:56,960 --> 00:01:00,720 Speaker 5: have shaken out at all. I'm advised that's expects to 17 00:01:00,760 --> 00:01:03,160 Speaker 5: be in and voting on Friday, maybe even over the weekend. 18 00:01:03,480 --> 00:01:05,759 Speaker 5: There's a possibility that we could get this all wrapped 19 00:01:05,840 --> 00:01:06,440 Speaker 5: up by Monday. 20 00:01:06,880 --> 00:01:08,000 Speaker 4: But there is no. 21 00:01:08,680 --> 00:01:13,960 Speaker 5: Bipartisanship to speak of, a lot of partisan ranker and 22 00:01:13,680 --> 00:01:16,680 Speaker 5: this doesn't have to wrap up quickly if folks don't 23 00:01:16,720 --> 00:01:17,679 Speaker 5: want it and right now. 24 00:01:17,720 --> 00:01:18,479 Speaker 4: Nobody wants it. 25 00:01:18,440 --> 00:01:22,120 Speaker 6: To end, Henriette. There has to be some compromise on 26 00:01:22,200 --> 00:01:25,480 Speaker 6: some points at some point going forward. What are some 27 00:01:25,520 --> 00:01:27,880 Speaker 6: of the issues that probably need some compromise. 28 00:01:27,920 --> 00:01:31,720 Speaker 5: I guess well, there's actually a lot of areas that 29 00:01:31,920 --> 00:01:35,080 Speaker 5: both sides want to see addressed. I would say, don't 30 00:01:35,080 --> 00:01:38,400 Speaker 5: even start with the obvious, which is healthcare and the 31 00:01:38,400 --> 00:01:40,839 Speaker 5: ACA subsidies that expire at the end of this year. 32 00:01:41,319 --> 00:01:44,560 Speaker 5: But start with things that Republican lawmakers want and what 33 00:01:44,560 --> 00:01:47,000 Speaker 5: they would be happy to negotiate over. For example, a 34 00:01:47,000 --> 00:01:50,120 Speaker 5: bailout for farmers. They're looking for thirty forty to fifty 35 00:01:50,160 --> 00:01:53,920 Speaker 5: even sixty billion dollars worth of bailouts. As China stops 36 00:01:53,960 --> 00:01:57,560 Speaker 5: buying soy. You can easily attach that to this CR 37 00:01:57,760 --> 00:02:01,120 Speaker 5: if you want to and buy some votes. Can address 38 00:02:01,200 --> 00:02:04,320 Speaker 5: the ACA subsidies a little bit earlier. You could make 39 00:02:04,480 --> 00:02:07,200 Speaker 5: a you know, a working group that will sort it 40 00:02:07,240 --> 00:02:08,640 Speaker 5: out over the next couple of weeks. 41 00:02:08,840 --> 00:02:11,000 Speaker 4: There are plenty of off ramps if folks want. 42 00:02:10,800 --> 00:02:14,880 Speaker 6: Them, Henriette, I know there are just the difference between 43 00:02:14,880 --> 00:02:16,919 Speaker 6: the two sides of the aisles is maybe as big 44 00:02:16,919 --> 00:02:21,720 Speaker 6: as it's ever been. At the leadership level. Did these 45 00:02:21,720 --> 00:02:24,000 Speaker 6: people talk to each other, do they respect each other? 46 00:02:24,120 --> 00:02:26,079 Speaker 6: Do they want to get stuff done? I'm talking at 47 00:02:26,080 --> 00:02:32,480 Speaker 6: the highest levels of the questions are exactly. 48 00:02:33,280 --> 00:02:36,400 Speaker 5: Well, yesterday they talked on the Senate floor and it 49 00:02:36,480 --> 00:02:41,760 Speaker 5: was not It wasn't happy. So there there are usually dialogues, 50 00:02:41,960 --> 00:02:44,160 Speaker 5: especially between those two you know, we call them the 51 00:02:44,200 --> 00:02:48,799 Speaker 5: Big Four for a reason. But tensions are incredibly high. 52 00:02:48,919 --> 00:02:51,160 Speaker 5: That is absolutely true. And this is not you know, 53 00:02:51,240 --> 00:02:55,760 Speaker 5: your dad's Senate or even your dad's house, and that 54 00:02:55,760 --> 00:02:59,000 Speaker 5: that deterioration has been at least a decade in the making. 55 00:02:59,560 --> 00:03:01,080 Speaker 4: So the lesson there used to be. 56 00:03:01,200 --> 00:03:04,720 Speaker 3: We welcome all of you acrastination, including Henrietta Trey's Louisiana 57 00:03:05,560 --> 00:03:08,800 Speaker 3: on your audio preference of choice on YouTube. Subscribe to 58 00:03:08,800 --> 00:03:12,240 Speaker 3: Bloomberg Podcast. We had a huge September out on YouTube. 59 00:03:12,639 --> 00:03:15,480 Speaker 3: Thank you, thank you, Thank you, Henriette. I'm gonna go 60 00:03:15,480 --> 00:03:18,280 Speaker 3: to Henda Natanson in the Washington Post, all of media, 61 00:03:18,320 --> 00:03:21,400 Speaker 3: Bloomberg as well, out with all sorts of granularity. Listen 62 00:03:21,440 --> 00:03:24,800 Speaker 3: to this, folks. Seven hundred and fifty thousand bodies go 63 00:03:24,880 --> 00:03:28,600 Speaker 3: out the door four hundred a million day in compensation. 64 00:03:29,480 --> 00:03:32,919 Speaker 3: I got Social Security. Henriette of the checks are sent out, 65 00:03:33,400 --> 00:03:39,119 Speaker 3: but the next sentence says, many employees at agencies handling 66 00:03:39,160 --> 00:03:40,360 Speaker 3: those tasks. 67 00:03:40,320 --> 00:03:43,640 Speaker 2: We'll be working without pay, including eighty eight. 68 00:03:43,480 --> 00:03:47,840 Speaker 3: Percent of the staff at the Social Security Administration. Henry 69 00:03:47,960 --> 00:03:50,600 Speaker 3: to discuss, why are these people working if they're not 70 00:03:50,600 --> 00:03:51,320 Speaker 3: getting paid? 71 00:03:52,440 --> 00:03:54,960 Speaker 5: Well, you've got these essential personnel, and if you want 72 00:03:54,960 --> 00:03:57,240 Speaker 5: some real insight, baseball, I mean, as a staffer, when 73 00:03:57,280 --> 00:04:00,240 Speaker 5: you're declared essential personnel, you feel got of cool. But 74 00:04:00,440 --> 00:04:02,720 Speaker 5: it's not awesome to go to work for too long 75 00:04:02,800 --> 00:04:05,560 Speaker 5: without getting paid. And the real kicker is that the 76 00:04:05,640 --> 00:04:09,400 Speaker 5: lawmakers themselves are still getting paid, so it's not necessarily 77 00:04:09,480 --> 00:04:09,880 Speaker 5: just the same. 78 00:04:09,960 --> 00:04:12,560 Speaker 3: Excuse me, we had an editorial, Lisa, would you like 79 00:04:12,600 --> 00:04:13,960 Speaker 3: to chine in on that fact? 80 00:04:13,960 --> 00:04:16,040 Speaker 7: There she just took the words out. I was like, 81 00:04:16,080 --> 00:04:17,080 Speaker 7: Congress is getting paid. 82 00:04:17,120 --> 00:04:20,919 Speaker 3: Congress is okay, miss Trace continue, please started to interrupt. 83 00:04:21,200 --> 00:04:24,240 Speaker 5: Right, So all these you know, our military men and 84 00:04:24,240 --> 00:04:28,039 Speaker 5: women in service, active duty in their gear going out 85 00:04:28,040 --> 00:04:30,800 Speaker 5: there every day, they are going to work and not 86 00:04:30,839 --> 00:04:34,000 Speaker 5: getting paid. And the senators who are grand standing are 87 00:04:34,040 --> 00:04:37,240 Speaker 5: going to Sea Island and Georgia for a retreat are 88 00:04:37,279 --> 00:04:40,719 Speaker 5: still getting paid. That disparity is a big, old problem, 89 00:04:40,800 --> 00:04:44,880 Speaker 5: and it starts to sort of grow on itself the 90 00:04:45,000 --> 00:04:47,120 Speaker 5: longer that this shutdown goes on. 91 00:04:47,160 --> 00:04:47,719 Speaker 4: And there's the reason. 92 00:04:47,760 --> 00:04:49,479 Speaker 5: The longest one is thirty five days, which in the 93 00:04:49,480 --> 00:04:52,480 Speaker 5: grand scheme of things is maybe not that long, especially 94 00:04:52,560 --> 00:04:54,640 Speaker 5: that one which was over the holidays, and it was 95 00:04:54,640 --> 00:04:58,000 Speaker 5: a little weird. Things get real tricky around October tenth, 96 00:04:58,080 --> 00:05:01,160 Speaker 5: which is when staff actually gets paid. You know, a 97 00:05:01,200 --> 00:05:03,400 Speaker 5: lot of those federal workers that you just mentioned get 98 00:05:03,400 --> 00:05:05,920 Speaker 5: paid every two weeks on Friday, and you know you're 99 00:05:05,960 --> 00:05:07,359 Speaker 5: not making a lot of money, so this is a 100 00:05:07,360 --> 00:05:08,719 Speaker 5: big deal to get that paycheck. 101 00:05:08,920 --> 00:05:11,680 Speaker 4: When you skip it, then it becomes a problem. 102 00:05:12,040 --> 00:05:14,440 Speaker 6: It kind of goes back to like why people go 103 00:05:14,480 --> 00:05:16,960 Speaker 6: into public service. You know, you don't get paid constant 104 00:05:17,320 --> 00:05:21,680 Speaker 6: scrutiny by the media. I don't. It's it's tough, so Henriette. 105 00:05:21,760 --> 00:05:23,440 Speaker 6: So the question, I guess for a lot of folks 106 00:05:23,480 --> 00:05:28,720 Speaker 6: is does one side have more incentive to forge a 107 00:05:28,800 --> 00:05:32,880 Speaker 6: deal versus the other side? How do we get past this? 108 00:05:34,160 --> 00:05:36,160 Speaker 5: Well, if I could editorialize for just a second, I 109 00:05:36,160 --> 00:05:38,360 Speaker 5: mean there's a lot of you know, bick pride and 110 00:05:39,040 --> 00:05:43,120 Speaker 5: a lot of real interest in making the government function 111 00:05:43,240 --> 00:05:45,880 Speaker 5: and getting your policies across and trying to make America better. 112 00:05:45,880 --> 00:05:47,640 Speaker 5: I mean, that's certainly why I went, and I think 113 00:05:47,680 --> 00:05:50,320 Speaker 5: that's what brings a lot of people there, Republicans and Democrats, 114 00:05:50,520 --> 00:05:51,000 Speaker 5: those folks. 115 00:05:52,360 --> 00:05:54,880 Speaker 2: I got to interrupt. This is too important, Henrietta. 116 00:05:55,000 --> 00:05:58,480 Speaker 3: Whatever your politics, the President of the United States has 117 00:05:58,720 --> 00:06:03,560 Speaker 3: absolutely no interest in the seven hundred and fifty thousand 118 00:06:03,880 --> 00:06:05,280 Speaker 3: warm bodies shut. 119 00:06:05,040 --> 00:06:05,719 Speaker 2: Down right now? 120 00:06:05,839 --> 00:06:10,359 Speaker 4: Right yeah, obviously not no, there is shut down. 121 00:06:11,279 --> 00:06:14,480 Speaker 2: I just give us one final thought, Henriette. 122 00:06:15,040 --> 00:06:18,200 Speaker 4: I think that the shutdown was inevitable. It didn't happen 123 00:06:18,240 --> 00:06:21,120 Speaker 4: in March. It happened this time around, and if it 124 00:06:21,120 --> 00:06:23,120 Speaker 4: didn't happen now, it was going to happen in November. 125 00:06:23,240 --> 00:06:27,400 Speaker 5: We are at a very real impasse in the United States. 126 00:06:27,520 --> 00:06:29,360 Speaker 4: It is as tense as I've ever seen it. 127 00:06:29,520 --> 00:06:32,440 Speaker 5: You're seeing a lot of good members leave and retire 128 00:06:32,520 --> 00:06:36,760 Speaker 5: and resign because of the acrimony. So this shutdown maybe 129 00:06:36,760 --> 00:06:38,520 Speaker 5: could let the mayor out of the room. If there's 130 00:06:38,560 --> 00:06:40,560 Speaker 5: going to be a positive benefit, maybe they can be that. 131 00:06:40,720 --> 00:06:44,160 Speaker 3: Your perspective is treasure from Vada Partners. Henrietta treys with us, 132 00:06:44,160 --> 00:06:47,680 Speaker 3: not daily, but near daily. Her commitment to Bloomberg surveillance 133 00:06:48,320 --> 00:06:52,679 Speaker 3: is noted, stay with us more from Bloomberg Surveillance coming 134 00:06:52,760 --> 00:06:53,760 Speaker 3: up after this. 135 00:07:01,000 --> 00:07:04,599 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us Live 136 00:07:04,640 --> 00:07:07,840 Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern. Listen on 137 00:07:07,880 --> 00:07:11,600 Speaker 1: Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, or 138 00:07:11,720 --> 00:07:13,400 Speaker 1: watch us live on YouTube. 139 00:07:13,760 --> 00:07:17,440 Speaker 3: Joining us some Blackrock right now to drive the conversation 140 00:07:17,520 --> 00:07:22,560 Speaker 3: forward in your world, I mean, in the blackrock world, 141 00:07:22,560 --> 00:07:25,120 Speaker 3: does anybody really pay attention to a shutdown? 142 00:07:25,160 --> 00:07:27,240 Speaker 8: Bring the attention to it on a few fronts. One, 143 00:07:27,920 --> 00:07:30,760 Speaker 8: as HENRYA mentioned, there could be some economic implications to 144 00:07:30,800 --> 00:07:33,360 Speaker 8: the extent that this is well, I would say, yeah, 145 00:07:33,400 --> 00:07:36,040 Speaker 8: I mean the longer that this extends the potential that 146 00:07:36,080 --> 00:07:38,760 Speaker 8: it could be more disruptive. So if that occurs, there 147 00:07:38,800 --> 00:07:41,760 Speaker 8: could be a rebuilt in resuspremia and credit and equity market, 148 00:07:42,320 --> 00:07:45,400 Speaker 8: two sectors that are reliant on government funding. There could 149 00:07:45,440 --> 00:07:47,760 Speaker 8: be more dispersion there to the extent that they are 150 00:07:47,800 --> 00:07:50,920 Speaker 8: reliant upon government contracts for example. And then yeah, as 151 00:07:50,960 --> 00:07:53,920 Speaker 8: you know to Tom, the data releases are incredibly important 152 00:07:53,920 --> 00:07:56,720 Speaker 8: in this environment. Given the tension in the FEDS dual mandate, 153 00:07:56,760 --> 00:07:59,000 Speaker 8: we wanted color on where the labor market is trending, 154 00:07:59,320 --> 00:08:01,520 Speaker 8: and so if we don't get that payrolls report on Friday, 155 00:08:01,600 --> 00:08:03,560 Speaker 8: I think just adds a little bit of uncertainty to 156 00:08:03,680 --> 00:08:05,680 Speaker 8: an overall challenging environment. 157 00:08:06,560 --> 00:08:09,960 Speaker 6: Where are you guys seeing or spending the most time 158 00:08:10,040 --> 00:08:12,280 Speaker 6: these days in the fixed income space. 159 00:08:12,080 --> 00:08:14,440 Speaker 8: I would say, I think the most value add that 160 00:08:14,440 --> 00:08:16,840 Speaker 8: we could provide right now is digging into what the 161 00:08:16,920 --> 00:08:20,200 Speaker 8: companies themselves are saying. And I think our work has 162 00:08:20,240 --> 00:08:24,400 Speaker 8: suggested that corporate resilience is stronger than many market participants 163 00:08:24,440 --> 00:08:27,560 Speaker 8: have expected. That leaves us comfortable with the view to 164 00:08:27,720 --> 00:08:30,320 Speaker 8: selectively move down in credit quality. That's a view we've 165 00:08:30,320 --> 00:08:33,480 Speaker 8: had since April tenth. It's been working for the most 166 00:08:33,480 --> 00:08:36,360 Speaker 8: part across most regions and reading cohorts within credit. 167 00:08:36,800 --> 00:08:38,319 Speaker 7: We expect that to continue. 168 00:08:38,360 --> 00:08:42,040 Speaker 8: We were pleasantly surprised about the second quarter economic activity 169 00:08:42,040 --> 00:08:45,760 Speaker 8: in the US first half GDP isn't that far below potential? 170 00:08:46,200 --> 00:08:49,440 Speaker 8: If we are indeed past peak uncertainty, we're positioning for 171 00:08:49,480 --> 00:08:51,840 Speaker 8: a reacceleration in twenty twenty six, and I think in 172 00:08:51,880 --> 00:08:54,840 Speaker 8: general that's a supportive backdrop for credit. Never mind the 173 00:08:54,920 --> 00:08:57,679 Speaker 8: technical factors that are retail wants, well, we don't. 174 00:08:57,480 --> 00:09:00,280 Speaker 6: Talk about with you maybe enough is commercial real? How 175 00:09:00,280 --> 00:09:01,199 Speaker 6: do you guys think about market? 176 00:09:01,320 --> 00:09:01,520 Speaker 7: Really? 177 00:09:01,800 --> 00:09:04,120 Speaker 8: I think, actually then this is something that we'll address 178 00:09:04,160 --> 00:09:08,040 Speaker 8: in our upcoming fourth quarter piece. The market seems to 179 00:09:08,040 --> 00:09:11,560 Speaker 8: be accepting a structurally higher level of interest rates, and 180 00:09:11,600 --> 00:09:15,240 Speaker 8: we're seeing that in a rebound consistently in transaction volumes, 181 00:09:15,360 --> 00:09:17,800 Speaker 8: especially in the US, and we think that that will 182 00:09:17,840 --> 00:09:21,720 Speaker 8: importantly extend into refinancing a lot of not only the 183 00:09:21,760 --> 00:09:25,080 Speaker 8: scheduled loans but also the cre loans that were extended 184 00:09:25,080 --> 00:09:29,240 Speaker 8: from recent quarters and pushed out because the expectations got brilliant. 185 00:09:29,240 --> 00:09:31,680 Speaker 3: Concept here, folks, this is like when you're at Villanova's 186 00:09:31,720 --> 00:09:34,560 Speaker 3: senior year and you've got in April that course at 187 00:09:34,600 --> 00:09:38,000 Speaker 3: two pm where you're trying to concentrate, but you can't. Okay, 188 00:09:38,040 --> 00:09:41,400 Speaker 3: if we have a regime shift to a quote unquote 189 00:09:41,520 --> 00:09:44,600 Speaker 3: higher interest rate, people like you talk about the coupon 190 00:09:45,040 --> 00:09:45,760 Speaker 3: forget about it. 191 00:09:45,800 --> 00:09:47,000 Speaker 2: That means price down. 192 00:09:47,520 --> 00:09:51,480 Speaker 3: Do you just assume a dampening price on fixed income 193 00:09:51,559 --> 00:09:52,360 Speaker 3: total return? 194 00:09:52,520 --> 00:09:54,320 Speaker 8: Well, I think in order to get a dampening price, 195 00:09:54,360 --> 00:09:57,120 Speaker 8: you would need rates to move materially higher from where 196 00:09:57,120 --> 00:10:00,800 Speaker 8: they are. And I don't necessarily think that the base case. 197 00:10:00,840 --> 00:10:02,960 Speaker 8: I think what we're just basically saying is if you're 198 00:10:03,000 --> 00:10:06,640 Speaker 8: allocating to corporate credit, we recommend doing that for income 199 00:10:06,840 --> 00:10:09,520 Speaker 8: and yield, not because there's a lot of scope for 200 00:10:09,559 --> 00:10:11,800 Speaker 8: spreads to tighten, and not because there's a lot of 201 00:10:11,840 --> 00:10:14,960 Speaker 8: scope for interest rates to fall. Those tighter spreads in 202 00:10:15,000 --> 00:10:18,120 Speaker 8: lower interest rates have historically been drivers of total returns 203 00:10:18,120 --> 00:10:20,520 Speaker 8: and credit. That's not where we think the regime is 204 00:10:20,679 --> 00:10:21,120 Speaker 8: just going. 205 00:10:21,280 --> 00:10:24,280 Speaker 2: Discuss for mere mortals. Like you're watching the Yankees lose tonight. 206 00:10:24,360 --> 00:10:27,240 Speaker 3: You're sitting there, you know, watching it with some friends, 207 00:10:27,240 --> 00:10:29,040 Speaker 3: and somebody says, what does carry mean? 208 00:10:29,280 --> 00:10:33,800 Speaker 2: Yeah, describe Carrie to our mere mortals listening this morning. 209 00:10:33,880 --> 00:10:36,640 Speaker 8: Carrie can be closely linked to the coupon concept. So 210 00:10:36,679 --> 00:10:38,640 Speaker 8: this is just the income and the yield that you 211 00:10:38,679 --> 00:10:43,520 Speaker 8: are generating, which is fairly elevated across both investment grade 212 00:10:43,520 --> 00:10:45,480 Speaker 8: and high yield. You don't need to reach that far 213 00:10:45,559 --> 00:10:48,000 Speaker 8: down in credit quality to capture it. I think the 214 00:10:48,040 --> 00:10:50,800 Speaker 8: point that we're making tom though, is that by moving 215 00:10:50,840 --> 00:10:52,959 Speaker 8: down into the high end of high yield, for example, 216 00:10:53,080 --> 00:10:56,320 Speaker 8: you're not foregoing much in fundamental credit quality, but you 217 00:10:56,360 --> 00:11:00,000 Speaker 8: are picking up some incremental yield or carry over. Time 218 00:11:00,160 --> 00:11:03,160 Speaker 8: can compound and So that's really our view on corporate 219 00:11:03,160 --> 00:11:06,320 Speaker 8: credit is comfortable selectively moving down in credit quality. 220 00:11:06,600 --> 00:11:10,080 Speaker 6: How about private credit continue to be a huge growth 221 00:11:10,480 --> 00:11:13,079 Speaker 6: area within fixed incomes. How do you guys get explosives? Sure? 222 00:11:13,200 --> 00:11:15,520 Speaker 8: Sure, I would say those structural drivers are still very 223 00:11:15,600 --> 00:11:18,720 Speaker 8: much in place. So investors looking for diversification and yield 224 00:11:19,040 --> 00:11:22,240 Speaker 8: borrowers looking for certainty of execution, companies are staying private 225 00:11:22,240 --> 00:11:22,800 Speaker 8: for longer. 226 00:11:23,360 --> 00:11:25,760 Speaker 2: Just looking at me. You don't see this on radio, 227 00:11:25,760 --> 00:11:28,120 Speaker 2: on YouTube, you can see it. I'm given or the 228 00:11:28,200 --> 00:11:29,040 Speaker 2: evil eye. 229 00:11:29,240 --> 00:11:32,720 Speaker 3: Come on, First Brands, we had an auto park place 230 00:11:32,800 --> 00:11:35,160 Speaker 3: blow up today. You're going to tell me things are 231 00:11:35,160 --> 00:11:38,640 Speaker 3: calm in private credit when I'm looking at what happened, First. 232 00:11:38,360 --> 00:11:42,080 Speaker 8: Brands, I would leaving single names aside. The default rates 233 00:11:42,320 --> 00:11:45,760 Speaker 8: have been increasing in corporate credit for actually the past 234 00:11:45,800 --> 00:11:49,160 Speaker 8: several quarters because of the rate environment, because of the 235 00:11:49,200 --> 00:11:52,080 Speaker 8: pressure on the subprime consumer, for example, that trend of 236 00:11:52,120 --> 00:11:55,000 Speaker 8: dispersion is alive, and well what it hasn't though done 237 00:11:55,000 --> 00:11:58,680 Speaker 8: tom is extended to derail overall performance and credit. And 238 00:11:58,720 --> 00:12:01,120 Speaker 8: so I think it's very clear. Our view has been 239 00:12:01,160 --> 00:12:03,080 Speaker 8: that we're no longer in a rising tide lifts on 240 00:12:03,120 --> 00:12:06,480 Speaker 8: boats environment. There's absolutely dispersion under the surface. You see 241 00:12:06,520 --> 00:12:08,439 Speaker 8: it in commercial real estate, you see it in consumer 242 00:12:08,480 --> 00:12:12,200 Speaker 8: credit and corporate credit. But is that enough to derail 243 00:12:12,240 --> 00:12:15,320 Speaker 8: performance and kind of support a generic up and quality 244 00:12:15,360 --> 00:12:17,080 Speaker 8: stance of very defensive stance. We don't see it. 245 00:12:17,360 --> 00:12:19,440 Speaker 2: Amanda, too short of visit. Thank you so much for 246 00:12:19,480 --> 00:12:22,320 Speaker 2: letting Henriette go on and on and. 247 00:12:22,280 --> 00:12:25,960 Speaker 3: On on The Slimman is with Blackrock this morning amid 248 00:12:26,640 --> 00:12:30,640 Speaker 3: the shutdown, Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming 249 00:12:30,760 --> 00:12:38,800 Speaker 3: up after this. 250 00:12:38,800 --> 00:12:42,680 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday 251 00:12:42,760 --> 00:12:46,040 Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto 252 00:12:46,160 --> 00:12:49,120 Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live 253 00:12:49,200 --> 00:12:52,800 Speaker 1: on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just 254 00:12:52,840 --> 00:12:56,760 Speaker 1: say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty, Blurina. 255 00:12:56,400 --> 00:13:01,120 Speaker 3: Or Rouchie joins us Chief US Economists is wonderful. It's 256 00:13:01,160 --> 00:13:05,200 Speaker 3: just the core equation, okay, So it's why equals C 257 00:13:05,440 --> 00:13:09,680 Speaker 3: plus I plus GGG and then the export dynamic, and 258 00:13:09,720 --> 00:13:14,120 Speaker 3: then what does the G statistic do in the core equation? Blrena, 259 00:13:14,320 --> 00:13:18,280 Speaker 3: What does government money in money out do given a shutdown? 260 00:13:19,880 --> 00:13:21,120 Speaker 7: It's a very good question. 261 00:13:21,240 --> 00:13:24,920 Speaker 9: Government is still a substantial contributor to growth here in 262 00:13:24,960 --> 00:13:29,079 Speaker 9: the US. I think the key effect that this government 263 00:13:29,120 --> 00:13:30,880 Speaker 9: shutdown is going to have it's going to be on 264 00:13:30,920 --> 00:13:32,119 Speaker 9: the federal payroll. 265 00:13:32,200 --> 00:13:32,480 Speaker 2: Now. 266 00:13:32,559 --> 00:13:36,000 Speaker 9: I think it's important to remember that historically there has 267 00:13:36,040 --> 00:13:40,120 Speaker 9: been a president where the furloughed workers do get back 268 00:13:40,160 --> 00:13:43,520 Speaker 9: pay once the government reopens. So whenever we have a 269 00:13:43,640 --> 00:13:48,160 Speaker 9: drop in consumer spending because these workers are not getting paid, 270 00:13:48,400 --> 00:13:51,360 Speaker 9: we have some kind of payback in the subsequent weeks. 271 00:13:51,559 --> 00:13:54,560 Speaker 9: So for the quarter as a whole, the effect on 272 00:13:54,640 --> 00:13:57,320 Speaker 9: GDP tends to be muted. It tends to be about 273 00:13:57,320 --> 00:14:00,760 Speaker 9: one tenth or two tenths of a percentage point. But 274 00:14:00,880 --> 00:14:03,120 Speaker 9: I think it's not to be taken for granted. It 275 00:14:03,200 --> 00:14:06,480 Speaker 9: requires an Act of Congress to approve this backpay. This 276 00:14:06,559 --> 00:14:08,959 Speaker 9: is one factor that we need to watch out for. 277 00:14:09,080 --> 00:14:12,160 Speaker 9: The Other factor is that we're hearing the government will 278 00:14:12,280 --> 00:14:15,120 Speaker 9: use this exercise of who is an essential worker and 279 00:14:15,160 --> 00:14:20,320 Speaker 9: who is not to deliver more federal workforce layoffs and reductions. 280 00:14:20,320 --> 00:14:24,200 Speaker 9: And if that's the case, I think the economic implications 281 00:14:24,240 --> 00:14:26,360 Speaker 9: and the effect on growth can be bigger than it's 282 00:14:26,360 --> 00:14:27,200 Speaker 9: been historically. 283 00:14:27,680 --> 00:14:29,640 Speaker 6: All right, let's follow up on that. Plarina if we're 284 00:14:29,680 --> 00:14:31,840 Speaker 6: talking about jobs there in the federal government, how about 285 00:14:31,880 --> 00:14:35,800 Speaker 6: the jobs at the overall US labor market? How concerned 286 00:14:35,800 --> 00:14:38,200 Speaker 6: are you back some cracks that may or may not 287 00:14:38,240 --> 00:14:38,800 Speaker 6: be developing. 288 00:14:39,720 --> 00:14:42,400 Speaker 9: So the way I would characterize it is that right 289 00:14:42,440 --> 00:14:46,360 Speaker 9: now we are in an uneasy equilibrium in the labor market. 290 00:14:47,040 --> 00:14:50,000 Speaker 9: Just to say it upfront, I think the unemployment rate 291 00:14:50,080 --> 00:14:54,200 Speaker 9: will likely stay stable this year, but demand and supply 292 00:14:54,480 --> 00:14:58,920 Speaker 9: of workers has diminished significantly from last year, and I 293 00:14:58,960 --> 00:15:02,560 Speaker 9: think that's the key here. We are not creating jobs 294 00:15:02,600 --> 00:15:05,480 Speaker 9: at the same rate as we did immediately post pandemic. 295 00:15:06,080 --> 00:15:09,440 Speaker 9: Companies are not hiring at a very fast pace, but 296 00:15:09,520 --> 00:15:12,640 Speaker 9: they're not laying off workers either, And I think there 297 00:15:12,680 --> 00:15:17,840 Speaker 9: is an element here of labor hoarding. But it doesn't 298 00:15:17,880 --> 00:15:19,920 Speaker 9: take much, I think, and that's what the FED is 299 00:15:19,960 --> 00:15:23,600 Speaker 9: worried about, that it doesn't take much for more layoffs 300 00:15:23,640 --> 00:15:25,400 Speaker 9: to increase the unemployment rate. 301 00:15:25,720 --> 00:15:28,000 Speaker 2: Do you have a glass half full view? 302 00:15:28,400 --> 00:15:30,640 Speaker 3: I mean you're sitting there. Can you imagine going into 303 00:15:30,680 --> 00:15:33,880 Speaker 3: a meeting with Sebastian page hero, she must take Pemple 304 00:15:33,960 --> 00:15:36,360 Speaker 3: in the defender? Well, Rina, when you go into the 305 00:15:36,400 --> 00:15:39,720 Speaker 3: portfolio managers at Tiro Price, do you have a glass 306 00:15:39,800 --> 00:15:42,920 Speaker 3: half full view into twenty twenty six. 307 00:15:44,000 --> 00:15:47,080 Speaker 9: I think twenty twenty six and potentially even the fourth 308 00:15:47,160 --> 00:15:50,480 Speaker 9: quarter of this year will be better for activity here 309 00:15:50,520 --> 00:15:53,720 Speaker 9: in the US. I do think we dealt with a 310 00:15:53,880 --> 00:15:58,880 Speaker 9: big uncertainty shock, the tariff shock here. The currency has 311 00:15:59,000 --> 00:16:03,360 Speaker 9: depreciated a lot, so exporters into the world are more expensive. 312 00:16:03,720 --> 00:16:07,040 Speaker 9: All those shops are working their way into the system. 313 00:16:07,320 --> 00:16:09,440 Speaker 9: But I think for twenty twenty six we'll get some 314 00:16:09,520 --> 00:16:13,680 Speaker 9: tailwind for fiscal as well that should boost growth. I 315 00:16:13,720 --> 00:16:17,120 Speaker 9: think I am more optimistic about the US labor market 316 00:16:17,160 --> 00:16:21,160 Speaker 9: than most. I do think that what we're seeing right 317 00:16:21,200 --> 00:16:23,720 Speaker 9: now is very structural. We are going to get a 318 00:16:23,800 --> 00:16:27,240 Speaker 9: slower run rate of employment growth, but we're not seeing 319 00:16:27,440 --> 00:16:31,920 Speaker 9: broad based weakness that would derail the business cycle and 320 00:16:31,960 --> 00:16:32,920 Speaker 9: the recovery here. 321 00:16:33,360 --> 00:16:35,360 Speaker 6: So given that background, Laurina, how do you think this 322 00:16:35,520 --> 00:16:39,480 Speaker 6: US Federal Reserve is going to react to great cuts 323 00:16:39,520 --> 00:16:40,000 Speaker 6: going forward? 324 00:16:40,840 --> 00:16:42,760 Speaker 9: I think they've got a lot to deal with, a 325 00:16:42,800 --> 00:16:45,400 Speaker 9: lot of uncertainty, and now they might not even get 326 00:16:45,440 --> 00:16:48,200 Speaker 9: the CPI and the payroll data on time because of 327 00:16:48,240 --> 00:16:49,960 Speaker 9: the government shut down, So. 328 00:16:50,080 --> 00:16:52,320 Speaker 7: It's going to be a pretty difficult quarter for. 329 00:16:52,320 --> 00:16:56,120 Speaker 9: The FED to navigate they are, of course, worried about 330 00:16:56,120 --> 00:16:59,280 Speaker 9: the deterioration and slow down in employment growth. That's why 331 00:16:59,280 --> 00:17:03,320 Speaker 9: they started in September and indicated they'll cut twice more 332 00:17:03,360 --> 00:17:06,640 Speaker 9: this year. But I if my forecast is right, we're 333 00:17:06,680 --> 00:17:09,560 Speaker 9: going to get much more of an impulse to inflation 334 00:17:09,680 --> 00:17:11,800 Speaker 9: from tariffs in Q four. I think it's going to 335 00:17:11,840 --> 00:17:14,800 Speaker 9: start showing up in consumer prices more. So at that 336 00:17:14,920 --> 00:17:19,000 Speaker 9: point you'll have a core inflation accelerating even more than 337 00:17:19,040 --> 00:17:21,680 Speaker 9: it has so far. And let's remember, when you look 338 00:17:21,720 --> 00:17:25,880 Speaker 9: at core CPIPC, you choose your measure, you compare where 339 00:17:25,920 --> 00:17:28,840 Speaker 9: we are now. It's exactly where we were one year ago. 340 00:17:29,040 --> 00:17:32,920 Speaker 9: Three percent inflation. That's a full percentage point higher than 341 00:17:33,000 --> 00:17:35,920 Speaker 9: the Fed starget. So I think you'll deliver the cast 342 00:17:36,000 --> 00:17:39,359 Speaker 9: that they have promised this year, but I think for 343 00:17:39,480 --> 00:17:42,000 Speaker 9: next year there is a big question mark. If the 344 00:17:42,000 --> 00:17:44,960 Speaker 9: economy is doing well and inflation is high, I don't 345 00:17:44,960 --> 00:17:48,080 Speaker 9: know why the Fed needs to go below where interest 346 00:17:48,160 --> 00:17:49,120 Speaker 9: rates are going to be. 347 00:17:49,240 --> 00:17:51,399 Speaker 2: Okay, got to leave there, Blurina, thank you for the update. 348 00:17:51,480 --> 00:17:53,680 Speaker 2: Really like if Lorena hurts you with us with t 349 00:17:53,920 --> 00:17:56,000 Speaker 2: row price, stay with us. 350 00:17:56,040 --> 00:18:06,679 Speaker 3: More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. 351 00:18:06,680 --> 00:18:10,560 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday 352 00:18:10,600 --> 00:18:13,640 Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Corplay and Android 353 00:18:13,640 --> 00:18:16,640 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch 354 00:18:16,720 --> 00:18:19,679 Speaker 1: us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the 355 00:18:19,720 --> 00:18:20,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg terminal. 356 00:18:20,880 --> 00:18:25,240 Speaker 3: The headline, I don't think it's in newspapers today, Boon 357 00:18:25,359 --> 00:18:30,120 Speaker 3: to the Moon is the headline from Yankees. Okay, as 358 00:18:30,119 --> 00:18:34,520 Speaker 3: will medicated with our newspapers Number one Yankee family. 359 00:18:34,240 --> 00:18:34,720 Speaker 2: Something to tell you. 360 00:18:34,960 --> 00:18:37,240 Speaker 7: Yeah, And I woke up and I fell asleep at 361 00:18:37,280 --> 00:18:39,160 Speaker 7: the end of the game, and I woke up, like, oh. 362 00:18:39,200 --> 00:18:42,520 Speaker 6: Are you a new It was, yes, I know. 363 00:18:43,119 --> 00:18:44,879 Speaker 7: I'm glad I didn't see that last part because I 364 00:18:44,880 --> 00:18:47,480 Speaker 7: probably would have freaked out. Okay, so let's get right 365 00:18:47,560 --> 00:18:52,240 Speaker 7: to it. Legalized blackjacket poker could be coming to Washington, 366 00:18:52,320 --> 00:18:55,480 Speaker 7: d C. This is in the Washington Post. It's because 367 00:18:55,560 --> 00:18:58,440 Speaker 7: Mayor Mirly Bouser, she's doing this proposal that she said 368 00:18:58,480 --> 00:19:00,399 Speaker 7: it's going to create new revenue streams. It's going to 369 00:19:00,480 --> 00:19:02,400 Speaker 7: increase tourism. So Blacktown. 370 00:19:02,480 --> 00:19:06,560 Speaker 2: So this is the bar in the basement at the Hall, Chris. 371 00:19:06,600 --> 00:19:11,600 Speaker 7: Tourism increased tourism. Yes, it's not just that, though they're 372 00:19:11,640 --> 00:19:14,760 Speaker 7: also cracking down an illegal street vending food trucks, easing 373 00:19:14,800 --> 00:19:18,639 Speaker 7: those zonning zoning hol hurdles for housing developments, to make 374 00:19:18,640 --> 00:19:21,440 Speaker 7: it easier for housing, to make it easier for commercial properties. 375 00:19:21,720 --> 00:19:23,400 Speaker 7: She said, it's going to send this message that DC 376 00:19:23,600 --> 00:19:24,760 Speaker 7: is open for business. 377 00:19:24,880 --> 00:19:26,919 Speaker 2: But Cranes, thank you so much for this. 378 00:19:27,040 --> 00:19:28,880 Speaker 3: But in New York there's been a lot of these 379 00:19:29,080 --> 00:19:30,399 Speaker 3: ideas voted down. 380 00:19:30,920 --> 00:19:34,600 Speaker 6: Correct, but we're going to get think three downstate gaming 381 00:19:34,760 --> 00:19:37,679 Speaker 6: licenses in the metro DC arego. I've met metro New 382 00:19:37,720 --> 00:19:40,199 Speaker 6: York area. One I think is going to be up 383 00:19:40,280 --> 00:19:43,840 Speaker 6: in kind of west Chester, Yonkers. No, not gonna be 384 00:19:43,880 --> 00:19:46,400 Speaker 6: one in Manhattan, maybe one in Queens with Steve Cohen. 385 00:19:46,440 --> 00:19:47,640 Speaker 6: I'm not sure how that's going to that, but there's 386 00:19:47,640 --> 00:19:49,560 Speaker 6: gonna be three downstate licenses here in New York though 387 00:19:49,720 --> 00:19:50,480 Speaker 6: it's coming everywhere. 388 00:19:50,480 --> 00:19:52,040 Speaker 2: I guess Cranks doing good coverage. 389 00:19:52,480 --> 00:19:55,000 Speaker 7: Next they are Okay, have you noticed going down here 390 00:19:55,000 --> 00:19:57,280 Speaker 7: in the city any of the local Starbucks closing down, 391 00:19:57,680 --> 00:19:59,920 Speaker 7: because apparently a lot of them have. I mean they 392 00:20:00,080 --> 00:20:02,720 Speaker 7: the company did say, hey, we're closing about four hundred stores. 393 00:20:02,880 --> 00:20:05,040 Speaker 7: But the New York City Department of Consumer Work Protection 394 00:20:05,119 --> 00:20:08,680 Speaker 7: says fifty four coffee shops around the city's five boroughs 395 00:20:08,760 --> 00:20:12,080 Speaker 7: of Starbucks have closed down, and so now it has 396 00:20:12,240 --> 00:20:14,400 Speaker 7: landlords and they're reaching out to the New York Posts 397 00:20:14,400 --> 00:20:16,159 Speaker 7: and they're saying, hey, I was given no heads up 398 00:20:16,200 --> 00:20:18,760 Speaker 7: or warning, like the sign was posted. How am I 399 00:20:18,800 --> 00:20:21,680 Speaker 7: going to be you know, get paid? And city officials 400 00:20:21,720 --> 00:20:23,680 Speaker 7: are saying that it's not in agreement with the city 401 00:20:23,760 --> 00:20:26,040 Speaker 7: labor laws because when you let someone go, you're in 402 00:20:26,080 --> 00:20:28,879 Speaker 7: a chain. You're supposed to send them to a different 403 00:20:29,240 --> 00:20:31,520 Speaker 7: and within the same burrow, to a different location. 404 00:20:31,960 --> 00:20:32,160 Speaker 1: Yeah. 405 00:20:32,200 --> 00:20:34,560 Speaker 6: To walk, Yeah, three or four blocks from our office 406 00:20:34,560 --> 00:20:36,480 Speaker 6: here to get to a Starbucks. There's not one like 407 00:20:36,520 --> 00:20:37,440 Speaker 6: across the street like. 408 00:20:37,400 --> 00:20:38,000 Speaker 7: There used to be. 409 00:20:38,480 --> 00:20:40,320 Speaker 6: Used to be one. Yes, right right downstairs, used to 410 00:20:40,320 --> 00:20:43,040 Speaker 6: be one caddy corner to us across the street. Now 411 00:20:43,040 --> 00:20:44,800 Speaker 6: you're going to walk again, two, three, four blocks I 412 00:20:45,080 --> 00:20:46,040 Speaker 6: get to a Starbucks. 413 00:20:46,160 --> 00:20:47,200 Speaker 7: Yeah, So they're closing down. 414 00:20:47,280 --> 00:20:49,240 Speaker 6: We had twenty seven coffee machines on the six floor, 415 00:20:49,280 --> 00:20:50,680 Speaker 6: so very good. 416 00:20:51,359 --> 00:20:54,480 Speaker 7: We're highly caffeinated. Yes, okay, So we've been talking about 417 00:20:54,600 --> 00:20:57,520 Speaker 7: more people using AI to you know, help organize you 418 00:20:57,600 --> 00:21:01,720 Speaker 7: search for info. It helps write papers for some people 419 00:21:01,760 --> 00:21:04,679 Speaker 7: that we said, but this one is about top ceo 420 00:21:04,800 --> 00:21:08,680 Speaker 7: is actually using it. LinkedIn CEO Ryan Russlanski, he talked 421 00:21:08,680 --> 00:21:11,840 Speaker 7: about it. He said he's using AI to write emails. 422 00:21:12,240 --> 00:21:14,679 Speaker 7: He says it's like having a second brain because it 423 00:21:14,840 --> 00:21:17,760 Speaker 7: knows him extremely well, because it's getting data on him 424 00:21:17,760 --> 00:21:20,960 Speaker 7: as on top of it, and why he uses co 425 00:21:21,080 --> 00:21:23,240 Speaker 7: pilot so every time he sends it to like even 426 00:21:23,320 --> 00:21:26,280 Speaker 7: his Microsoft boss sat In Adela, you know, or other CEOs, 427 00:21:26,320 --> 00:21:28,760 Speaker 7: other world leaders. But he doesn't write the whole it 428 00:21:29,000 --> 00:21:29,879 Speaker 7: helps him write it. 429 00:21:30,240 --> 00:21:32,120 Speaker 2: I don't know what to think of this. I mean, 430 00:21:32,160 --> 00:21:35,480 Speaker 2: I know I'm not using it like so many other people. Yeah, 431 00:21:35,600 --> 00:21:36,840 Speaker 2: but you get my act together. 432 00:21:37,119 --> 00:21:37,320 Speaker 5: Yeah. 433 00:21:37,359 --> 00:21:39,639 Speaker 6: I think the use cases are just exploding for a 434 00:21:39,640 --> 00:21:41,680 Speaker 6: lot of people. They're really getting more and more comfortable with. 435 00:21:41,760 --> 00:21:44,640 Speaker 2: I'm addicted to this thing called perplexity. 436 00:21:44,720 --> 00:21:44,919 Speaker 5: I know. 437 00:21:45,080 --> 00:21:46,080 Speaker 2: Good morning Berkeley. 438 00:21:46,240 --> 00:21:48,199 Speaker 7: Yep, he does care about it, but a lot of 439 00:21:48,200 --> 00:21:48,960 Speaker 7: more people. 440 00:21:48,760 --> 00:21:51,360 Speaker 2: Are used twenty seconds, sneak one in here. 441 00:21:51,359 --> 00:21:54,480 Speaker 7: Twenty seconds. Okay, are you tired of you pay with 442 00:21:54,560 --> 00:21:55,200 Speaker 7: cash all the time? 443 00:21:55,200 --> 00:21:55,400 Speaker 2: Point? 444 00:21:55,400 --> 00:21:56,120 Speaker 7: I do, okay, but. 445 00:21:56,080 --> 00:21:58,000 Speaker 6: I haven't had a coin in my pocket. You have 446 00:21:58,119 --> 00:21:58,800 Speaker 6: fifteen years. 447 00:21:59,080 --> 00:22:02,600 Speaker 7: This is about the pennies because Apparently people the retailers 448 00:22:02,640 --> 00:22:05,440 Speaker 7: are going against. They want to round up to the 449 00:22:05,560 --> 00:22:08,160 Speaker 7: nickel because they're tired of the pennies. They don't have pennies. 450 00:22:08,280 --> 00:22:10,680 Speaker 7: They give change and it's kind of that awkward moment. 451 00:22:10,720 --> 00:22:11,960 Speaker 2: Do they want to round down? 452 00:22:13,840 --> 00:22:16,960 Speaker 7: Round us to the nickel? So that's the big battle 453 00:22:17,000 --> 00:22:18,040 Speaker 7: going out in the retail space. 454 00:22:18,160 --> 00:22:18,880 Speaker 2: Lisa Mateo. 455 00:22:19,359 --> 00:22:24,240 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on apples, Spotify, 456 00:22:24,320 --> 00:22:28,600 Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday, 457 00:22:28,760 --> 00:22:32,199 Speaker 1: seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the 458 00:22:32,280 --> 00:22:36,320 Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You 459 00:22:36,359 --> 00:22:39,720 Speaker 1: can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and 460 00:22:39,920 --> 00:22:41,640 Speaker 1: always on the Bloomberg terminal