WEBVTT - The Porcupine Effect

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<v Speaker 1>So there is a bit of a breaking, big news

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<v Speaker 1>story around Trump's visit to Beijing. As President She of

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<v Speaker 1>China has pushed this Taiwan thing more and harder than

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<v Speaker 1>I think anybody was expecting, like over and over again,

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<v Speaker 1>each time they sit down to meet or like, no

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<v Speaker 1>matter whatever topic we bring up, she goes back to

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<v Speaker 1>Taiwan being a really big deal and very important to him,

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<v Speaker 1>and Taiwan belongs to us, and over and over again.

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<v Speaker 1>And I think that's interesting. We're getting more reporting on that.

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<v Speaker 1>Give you this version from the New York Post before

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<v Speaker 1>we get to Mike Lyons, because I want to ask

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<v Speaker 1>him about this and a bunch of other stuff. A

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<v Speaker 1>very different story began to emerge behind closed doors after

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<v Speaker 1>President She continually pressed the issue of Taiwan. The mid

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<v Speaker 1>morning sit down ran law about forty minutes over its

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<v Speaker 1>scheduled time. Trump was notably quieter. At the next stop.

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<v Speaker 1>He ignored shouted questions. The bodied language of both presidents

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<v Speaker 1>was noticeably stiffer than it was earlier, as in there

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<v Speaker 1>had been some you know, confrontation, and they had reached

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<v Speaker 1>a point of things being uncomfortable around this issue, and

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<v Speaker 1>their people are putting out very strong language about it,

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<v Speaker 1>and we're reiterating that Taiwan is a free nation and

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<v Speaker 1>we support them anyway. It's kind of a surprise in

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<v Speaker 1>the whole thing. We'd like to welcome to the show.

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<v Speaker 1>Mike Lions. We love talking to Mike about anything militarily.

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<v Speaker 1>You can follow him that m a j is in

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<v Speaker 1>Major m Aj. Mike lyons on his Twitter feed. He

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<v Speaker 1>just had an op ed indefense dot Com about ai

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<v Speaker 1>in our relationship with China, which we'll talk about a

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<v Speaker 1>little bit. But hey, Mike, what do you think about

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<v Speaker 1>this hardcore push from President She about how we're taking

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<v Speaker 1>Taiwan someday and don't get no way.

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<v Speaker 2>Or there will be a war. That's basically what he said.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, no, I saw that report that comes from, you know,

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<v Speaker 3>kind of an old Greek model about kind of rising

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<v Speaker 3>powers and existing powers, and the bottom line is that

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<v Speaker 3>could ruin everything between the US and China. That seems

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<v Speaker 3>to be their hard line. I think I think President

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<v Speaker 3>she is trying to understand Donald Trump's language of leverage,

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<v Speaker 3>and I think that's what he's trying to use as

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<v Speaker 3>leverage back to everything that the President wanted and wants

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<v Speaker 3>to accomplish in the summit. He brought all the CEOs.

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<v Speaker 3>He's bringing all this with his perceived leverage into the equation,

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<v Speaker 3>and I think President She is just trying to pivot

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<v Speaker 3>that way, and they see themselves as this rising power

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<v Speaker 3>and he recognizes the US as a ruling power. And

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<v Speaker 3>to frame it the way he has means that potentially

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<v Speaker 3>war could be inevitable if if we decide to involve

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<v Speaker 3>ourselves with there. We've just sold them billions of dollars

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<v Speaker 3>and ten or twelve billion dollars worth of military equips.

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<v Speaker 3>But she is pretty serious about making this whole thing

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<v Speaker 3>as a very hands off operation.

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<v Speaker 2>Where's the reality on this?

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<v Speaker 1>Just as a like an outside observer, it seems to

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<v Speaker 1>me that China's way got the upper hand just because

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<v Speaker 1>of the proximity. If they decided to take Taiwan, it

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<v Speaker 1>would be really hard for US to stop them.

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<v Speaker 3>It would it would require US forces firing missiles into

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<v Speaker 3>mainland China, which would then you start this war. That's

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<v Speaker 3>the only way you could you could possibly stop this

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<v Speaker 3>and you know, to keep them from from taking it.

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<v Speaker 3>And I think right now our mentality has been well.

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<v Speaker 3>But besides strategic ambiguity, about it. It's this kind of

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<v Speaker 3>porcupine effect. Just give Taiwan enough equipment that it would

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<v Speaker 3>make the cost of taking it militarily so high, you know,

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<v Speaker 3>similar to what we thought would have happened in Ukraine.

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<v Speaker 3>The cost of it was too high. It didn't stop

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<v Speaker 3>the Rusians there, you know. Again, for China to be

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<v Speaker 3>a global power though in this century, and we're all

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<v Speaker 3>convincing ourselves that China is the rising power and US

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<v Speaker 3>is the falling power, I just don't buy that yet,

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<v Speaker 3>Recorder of the way into the century and China has

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<v Speaker 3>still yet flexed any kind of military muscle or any

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<v Speaker 3>kind of military might in that regard. Now, this would

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<v Speaker 3>be like anything else, would be considered an easier military

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<v Speaker 3>operation to your point because of proximity, but it could

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<v Speaker 3>start a very large conflict in the region that frankly,

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<v Speaker 3>I'm not sure the US would give up potentially a

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<v Speaker 3>West coast city for if they decided to fire a

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<v Speaker 3>nuclear weapon at It's based on what we're doing, man,

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<v Speaker 3>And this is.

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<v Speaker 1>The headlines everywhere that I'm looking that Taiwan emerges as

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<v Speaker 1>key topic and all that sort of thing where we

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<v Speaker 1>were kind of hoping to make it a backburner topic,

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<v Speaker 1>but not the way things have turned out. Okay, Well,

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<v Speaker 1>I'm glad I got to ask you all about that.

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<v Speaker 1>So you've got this piece at defense dot Com about

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<v Speaker 1>AI and how the next summit between China and the

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<v Speaker 1>United States should be a cooperational very AI. I can

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<v Speaker 1>talk about AI all day long. I don't know if

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<v Speaker 1>you've heard where of this, but I read all the books,

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<v Speaker 1>I listen to all the podcasts. I'm fascinated by the topic.

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<v Speaker 1>What's your take on it from a military standpoint?

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<v Speaker 3>Well, I think, you know, I put my Cold War

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<v Speaker 3>you know hat on again and look back and say,

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<v Speaker 3>you know, AI is a potential nuclear weapon that can

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<v Speaker 3>destroy the Earth if we let it involved with targeting

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<v Speaker 3>and if we let it make decisions. Think of you know,

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<v Speaker 3>the terminator. And it's not a joke anymore. I mean,

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<v Speaker 3>we're we're operating a war right now at scale with

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<v Speaker 3>AI in terms of our targeting and the closing the

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<v Speaker 3>kill chain, the time in between we recognize the target

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<v Speaker 3>and then can engage that target. And we've got to

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<v Speaker 3>get with China to create someone like another Salt treaty,

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<v Speaker 3>a strategic arms limitation treat You treat it like it's

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<v Speaker 3>a nuclear weapon. Get them in US to agree to

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<v Speaker 3>certain red lines about where AI is used in specifically

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<v Speaker 3>the offense. You know, it's one thing to use AI

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<v Speaker 3>techniques in the defense, as Israel does with it's Iron Dome.

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<v Speaker 3>Iron Dome is fundamentally AI driven. A rockets coming at Israel.

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<v Speaker 3>The computer decides whether or not to engage that that

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<v Speaker 3>rocket or not. It's not a human pulling the trigger. Well,

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<v Speaker 3>if you had that on the offense, that just creates

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<v Speaker 3>a whole different set of variables that you might not

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<v Speaker 3>be able to ever stop. So you can get what's

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<v Speaker 3>instead of having mutually assured destruction, which is a strategic

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<v Speaker 3>to terms for nuclear weapons, you could have, you know,

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<v Speaker 3>mutually automated destruction, where once it starts, both sides would

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<v Speaker 3>be completely destroyed just based on automation alone. So we've

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<v Speaker 3>got to sit down with them very quickly and get

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<v Speaker 3>both sides to agree on certain red lines. When it

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<v Speaker 3>comes to the military use of artificial intelligence.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, well, of course, you know the wild card is

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<v Speaker 1>if it goes to artificial general intelligence or super general intelligence,

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<v Speaker 1>that you know, there might not be any controlling AI

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<v Speaker 1>at all by anyone. So that's Yeah, that's out there

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<v Speaker 1>as a possibility. I'm glad you're taking it this seriously.

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<v Speaker 1>I feel like it's that big a deal too, and

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<v Speaker 1>it just doesn't getting enough talk.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I think. I think a lot of it just

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<v Speaker 3>has to do with the decisions are being made in

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<v Speaker 3>corporate America by the AI companies and what they're going

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<v Speaker 3>to do and what they're not going to do. When

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<v Speaker 3>it comes to our government, I think that the US

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<v Speaker 3>Congress has got to get involved. If there's a uniform code,

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<v Speaker 3>similar to way the President conducts covert operations, we need

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<v Speaker 3>to put a US code in place that says this

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<v Speaker 3>is how we're going to use artificial intelligence, and this

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<v Speaker 3>is how the military will use it, and codify it

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<v Speaker 3>in law, and then show that to the Chinese's similar

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<v Speaker 3>to what we did the Russians, get them to agree

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<v Speaker 3>on doing it in their side and with their military,

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<v Speaker 3>and again, at least we don't have it in the offense.

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<v Speaker 3>It's one thing for the defense. I think in the defense,

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<v Speaker 3>artificial intelligence is a game changer in some ways and

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<v Speaker 3>it protects you, but doing it in the offense is

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<v Speaker 3>really where the red line has to be drawn.

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<v Speaker 2>If you're interested in this topic.

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<v Speaker 1>Mike's got a piece at defense dot com, So we

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<v Speaker 1>got to talk about Iran. Obviously wor at war with

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<v Speaker 1>that country, and we seem to be stuck. They think

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<v Speaker 1>they can wait us out, we think we can wait

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<v Speaker 1>them out. And then there is that a new story

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<v Speaker 1>that came out. It was anonymous quotes from our intelligence,

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<v Speaker 1>but it seemed pretty well sourced that Iran has way more.

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<v Speaker 1>There are rockets and missiles and rocket launchers that left.

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<v Speaker 1>Then we were led to believe, first of all, do

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<v Speaker 1>you believe that?

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah? I don't, right, they have I mean again, it's

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<v Speaker 3>all it's not even just the rockets themselves. It's it's

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<v Speaker 3>all of the systems together, and they just can't scale

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<v Speaker 3>it on any level anymore. It's one thing, you know,

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<v Speaker 3>to launch a rocket, it is not just you know,

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<v Speaker 3>pointing and shooting. At this point, you have to have radars,

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<v Speaker 3>you have to have fire direction. All the different components

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<v Speaker 3>of it are destroyed. So it's it's, you know, it's

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<v Speaker 3>like having you know, empty weapons. If they have then

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<v Speaker 3>the I'm sure they have you know, fifty to one

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<v Speaker 3>hundred or so. Maybe if the fact that they started

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<v Speaker 3>with ten thousand, they started with a large amount, but

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<v Speaker 3>at scale they just can't deploy them, is really what's

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<v Speaker 3>going on here. So I don't believe any of that

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<v Speaker 3>at all. I think I think the weight out period

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<v Speaker 3>that you know, the president is trying to be as

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<v Speaker 3>diplomatic as possible, and those of us in the military

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<v Speaker 3>are like, let's go come out, let's finish this off.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, every single analysts you see on television right now,

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<v Speaker 3>that's what they're saying. And I think that would be

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<v Speaker 3>the most you know, viable, quickly, quick way to end

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<v Speaker 3>this thing. But you know, the president wants to stick

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<v Speaker 3>to the plomacy right now, So that's what we're going

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<v Speaker 3>to do well.

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<v Speaker 1>And I think MBS of Saudi Arabia would agree with you,

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<v Speaker 1>and MBZ at the u over there at the UAE

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<v Speaker 1>would agree with you. So do you expect that to happen.

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<v Speaker 1>That's what I expect to happen.

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<v Speaker 3>I do. I think they can't risk leaving Iran weak

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<v Speaker 3>but still able to move forward, and that's you know,

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<v Speaker 3>it does mean regime change and never seen this historically happen,

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<v Speaker 3>you know from the air in that regard. But they're

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<v Speaker 3>looking for the country to internally collapse economically, but we

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<v Speaker 3>can't leave them in a situation where in twenty years

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<v Speaker 3>they're back doing it to you know, another different population,

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<v Speaker 3>and that's still threatening the Middle East. And this president

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<v Speaker 3>again is taking care of all family business. I think

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<v Speaker 3>that he's not finishing. He says it all the time.

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<v Speaker 3>He says, it's more important that we take care of

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<v Speaker 3>the nuclear aspect here, and so I'm glad to see

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<v Speaker 3>him do it. It's long overdue.

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<v Speaker 2>Seems like there's a lot of flashpoints out there right now.

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<v Speaker 3>Different yeah, no, in different spots. It's still they can

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<v Speaker 3>still happen in the Pacific, in any of those straits

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<v Speaker 3>that are there. Venezuela looks like that's going well. You know,

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<v Speaker 3>Trump's talking about making them a fifty first state. I

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<v Speaker 3>think Cuba will get resolved once Iran does. But I

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<v Speaker 3>think again, the major one is in the Middle East,

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<v Speaker 3>and you know, there's no proxy force that's been out

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<v Speaker 3>there for Iran. Right now, we haven't seen terrorist attacks.

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<v Speaker 3>Could be the calm before the storm. We'll see. Maybe

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<v Speaker 3>Trump's try to get China to intervene.

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<v Speaker 2>I don't think.

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<v Speaker 3>I don't think there's a lot of people that are

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<v Speaker 3>not happy with Pakistan being the mediators. They're not Trump,

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<v Speaker 3>They're not independence here. They're on the side of Iran.

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<v Speaker 3>And I think you seldom's Graham go go kind of

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<v Speaker 3>crazy over that at a sentate hearing the other day.

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<v Speaker 3>Maybe China was going to get involved. Trump's doing whatever

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<v Speaker 3>he can, but I think he's very Machiavelian. He's treating China,

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<v Speaker 3>he's flattering them, he's doing all he can, but he's

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<v Speaker 3>also brought the hammer. He's not looking to be loved,

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<v Speaker 3>he still wants to be feared by them.

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<v Speaker 1>That's Mike Lyons. You can read his AI piece the

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<v Speaker 1>next Summit that Trump should have at Defense dot Com.

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<v Speaker 1>You can follow them at m Ajmike Lyons on Twitter.

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<v Speaker 1>Thanks for your time today, Mike, appreciate that.

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<v Speaker 3>Ye ye please me? Um?

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<v Speaker 1>Was it oh reeldefense dot com? Sorry, is just underlend

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<v Speaker 1>defense dot com? Cleardefense dot com, Realclear defense dot Com.

0:11:18.200 --> 0:11:21.959
<v Speaker 1>What is the actual title here, Michael? Okay, why is

0:11:21.960 --> 0:11:25.000
<v Speaker 1>it only interlined at defense dot com? Okay, it's realclear

0:11:25.040 --> 0:11:28.800
<v Speaker 1>defense dot Com. Sorry about that. I got another comment

0:11:28.800 --> 0:11:30.080
<v Speaker 1>about that, but first I got to tell you this

0:11:30.080 --> 0:11:32.480
<v Speaker 1>about Incogne, which is just really, really a good idea.

0:11:33.400 --> 0:11:34.719
<v Speaker 2>I hate the fact that.

0:11:34.720 --> 0:11:37.880
<v Speaker 1>Every time I have to give somebody my name, address,

0:11:38.120 --> 0:11:40.760
<v Speaker 1>phone number, whatever, then they have that information and they

0:11:40.760 --> 0:11:43.320
<v Speaker 1>sell it to somebody. Then everybody has it, or sometimes

0:11:43.320 --> 0:11:45.000
<v Speaker 1>they steal it, and then I get all these texts

0:11:45.000 --> 0:11:47.679
<v Speaker 1>and emails and sometimes there are people trying to steal

0:11:47.679 --> 0:11:49.880
<v Speaker 1>from me, and I hate the whole thing. You needed Cogny.

0:11:49.920 --> 0:11:54.000
<v Speaker 1>That's what we do in Cogni. They actually go to

0:11:54.040 --> 0:11:56.280
<v Speaker 1>the data brokers because they know who they are, and

0:11:56.320 --> 0:12:00.040
<v Speaker 1>they use the laws that already exist and force the

0:12:00.200 --> 0:12:03.120
<v Speaker 1>people to take your information off there. And you're going

0:12:03.160 --> 0:12:06.720
<v Speaker 1>to notice a drop in spam, texts, emails, and calls

0:12:06.880 --> 0:12:10.679
<v Speaker 1>right away, protecting you from all this stuff real digital threats.

0:12:11.040 --> 0:12:13.640
<v Speaker 1>They can't scam you if they can't find you. Take

0:12:13.679 --> 0:12:17.520
<v Speaker 1>your personal data back within Cognitate. That's I n cog ni.

0:12:18.160 --> 0:12:20.760
<v Speaker 1>That's how it's spelled. Get sixty percent off the regular

0:12:20.760 --> 0:12:23.000
<v Speaker 1>price when you use the code armstrong and a Cognitate

0:12:23.040 --> 0:12:25.880
<v Speaker 1>dot com slash armstrong. That's sixty percent off when you

0:12:25.960 --> 0:12:28.600
<v Speaker 1>use the code armstrong and at Cogni dot com slash

0:12:28.720 --> 0:12:33.040
<v Speaker 1>armstrong and Cogniti dot com slash armstrong. So I hope

0:12:33.040 --> 0:12:36.199
<v Speaker 1>my clients is right. He has a lot of sources himself.

0:12:36.840 --> 0:12:38.960
<v Speaker 1>In the pushback against that big story of The New

0:12:39.040 --> 0:12:42.360
<v Speaker 1>York Times had the other day saying that RAN still

0:12:42.400 --> 0:12:46.800
<v Speaker 1>retains something like seventy percent of their rockets and thirty

0:12:46.840 --> 0:12:48.920
<v Speaker 1>out of thirty five, I think they said of the

0:12:49.240 --> 0:12:51.600
<v Speaker 1>rocket launchers right there along the straight or horror moves.

0:12:51.720 --> 0:12:56.440
<v Speaker 1>Mike doesn't believe that. I hope he's right. Would the

0:12:56.480 --> 0:12:59.120
<v Speaker 1>New York Times go with some analyst that wants to

0:12:59.120 --> 0:12:59.960
<v Speaker 1>make Trump look bad?

0:13:00.440 --> 0:13:03.440
<v Speaker 2>Hell yeah they would. So what's actually the truth?

0:13:03.520 --> 0:13:05.640
<v Speaker 1>I don't know, But in terms of hoping, I hope

0:13:05.720 --> 0:13:07.040
<v Speaker 1>Mike's right.

0:13:07.600 --> 0:13:08.760
<v Speaker 3>Armstrong and Getty