Speaker 1: M check it down Man Now Down Now. It's the
Speaker 1: Beating the Book Podcast, Bill Alec Handon and Thomas the
Speaker 1: whole bunch of podcasts, this is one of them. This
Speaker 1: is from a little earlier, a few weeks back. It's
Speaker 1: season win totals in Major League Baseball from both Roxy Roxborrow,
Speaker 1: the legendary Roxy Roxborow and Jason Weingarten, who have been
Speaker 1: so good on season win tolls for so many years
Speaker 1: on the show Roxy with just a remarkable year last year.
Speaker 1: This is obviously a question Marcus to whether or not
Speaker 1: there's going to be some applicable value to this. But
Speaker 1: in case the season is truncated, maybe there's an equivalent
Speaker 1: win percentage that could inform some of our wagers. We
Speaker 1: shall see. Nonetheless, always interesting, always informative, always insightful from
Speaker 1: these two on the Beating the Book Podcast. Enjoy with
Speaker 1: Jill Alexander that Chicago bullstat that we gave out one
Speaker 1: and twenty one against win Team's courtesy of want to
Speaker 1: give him credit. Casey Johnson, Bulls Insider f NBC Chicago
Speaker 1: twenty nine years of the Tribune, You know him Bill
Speaker 1: twenty nine years of the Tribune and Casey Johnson. Thank
Speaker 1: you for that. Let's bring him in, ladies and gentlemen,
Speaker 1: from somewhere under a cloud of smoke in southern California.
Speaker 1: It's his time a year. Also writes for Points Spread Weekly,
Speaker 1: talking Major League Baseball. It's Jason Weingar and good morning, Jason,
Speaker 1: Good morning Gil. How's it going? Just going well? Man,
Speaker 1: great to hear you. Let me just ask you this
Speaker 1: off the top. What was your favorite part and my
Speaker 1: favorite I'll put that in quotes. What was your favorite
Speaker 1: part of Rob Rob Manfred's uh interview yesterday with Karl
Speaker 1: Ravitt regarding the Astros scandal. You know, I didn't actually
Speaker 1: watch it. I just saw the clip in the news,
Speaker 1: So yeah, it wasn't anything new. Really, It's just kind
Speaker 1: of disappointing that that nothing's really gonna happen and he
Speaker 1: wants to fall to just move on. He looked first
Speaker 1: of all, he looked awful, and I couldn't believe of
Speaker 1: a couple of a couple of responses, you know, hey,
Speaker 1: are you gonna are you gonna strip them of the title?
Speaker 1: And I'm not a strip of title, strip of title
Speaker 1: kind of guy, vacate title kind of guy. But I
Speaker 1: believe there was ever a title to be vacated. It's
Speaker 1: that one in and Rob Manfred was like, no, I
Speaker 1: don't believe in that kind of all right, well, what
Speaker 1: about the players being punished? I don't know MLB, you
Speaker 1: know the players those Asians though, it was just sort
Speaker 1: of this horrific They're just like, oh god, this is
Speaker 1: getting worse. As if you didn't think the the Jim
Speaker 1: Crane interview could be any worse, Rob Manfred doubling down. Anyway, Um,
Speaker 1: let's talk unders, and let's start there. I'm guessing that
Speaker 1: perhaps of all of these, because a couple of these
Speaker 1: are are not gonna be bettable yet at the number
Speaker 1: that you got them at, did you bet the Houston
Speaker 1: Astros under, because that would be one of them, I'm
Speaker 1: guessing that would not be there. I did under ninety
Speaker 1: six and a half, ninety four and a half, so
Speaker 1: it's you got it at ninety six and a half,
Speaker 1: but it is at ninety four and a half now,
Speaker 1: so that's one. So that's two games off, So that's
Speaker 1: it's one that's not quite Would you still bet it
Speaker 1: at ninety four and a half, Yeah, I bet it.
Speaker 1: I also bet it at ninety four and a half.
Speaker 1: You okay, give us your now beyond beyond the scandal,
Speaker 1: beyond the the sign stealing. What is your reasoning, what
Speaker 1: is your baseball reasoning? They lost Garrett Cole, they they
Speaker 1: hired Dusty Dusty Baker to manage the team. Uh, you know,
Speaker 1: I I totally understand why you would still want to
Speaker 1: play the over It's it's a really good lineup. Um,
Speaker 1: there's nothing wrong with the lineup. I'm just gonna kind
Speaker 1: of go out on a little bit of a narrative
Speaker 1: limb and say that they're gonna have a tough season.
Speaker 1: They're gonna have a lot of distractions, you know. And
Speaker 1: I don't have anything against Dusty Baker. I just don't
Speaker 1: think he's gonna lead them to ninety wins. I just don't.
Speaker 1: Here's what I love about that, because you, you and
Speaker 1: I are very much based on numbers, and we adhere
Speaker 1: to them pretty strongly. But I do agree with what
Speaker 1: you said. I actually think that the narrative matters here,
Speaker 1: and I think there is a sense of and I'm
Speaker 1: not talking about oh, they're gonna get thrown at and
Speaker 1: the media is gonna be on Maybe that's part of
Speaker 1: it too, But I just don't know, Jason, how good
Speaker 1: they were, you know what I mean. Like, so all
Speaker 1: of this cast doubt on everything. For me, I'm not
Speaker 1: going to bet a team over that number when I'm
Speaker 1: not convinced there is good based on everything we've learned
Speaker 1: as our eyes told us they were back in the day,
Speaker 1: because we don't know anything anymore about this team. I
Speaker 1: do also think the division has gotten better. So the
Speaker 1: Dusty Baker thing is interesting though, because I always say
Speaker 1: this about Usty Weather's in San Francisco, d C, Chicago,
Speaker 1: wherever he's been Cincinnati. Not only not the best in
Speaker 1: game decision maker, but he also seems to get unlucky
Speaker 1: a lot too when he does when he does make
Speaker 1: good decisions. Um, I'm with you, And you also point out,
Speaker 1: what if this team starts slow? Is he the guy
Speaker 1: to get them out of that? I don't think so.
Speaker 1: I'm not sure. I mean, I feel and I don't
Speaker 1: like to to talk a lot of trash on Dusty
Speaker 1: because he's he's actually a good manager and he's a
Speaker 1: good guy. But they didn't hire him to win games.
Speaker 1: They they hired him to to stand at the podium.
Speaker 1: You know this week Will the team was speaking and
Speaker 1: basically be a credibility shield. That was the best way
Speaker 1: I heard it described in an article is that he
Speaker 1: was hired to shield them from criticism and make them
Speaker 1: more credible that they're you know, they're changing the organization,
Speaker 1: which I don't really believe a credibility shield. That's interesting. Yeah,
Speaker 1: all right, give me a couple other unders. Rockies under
Speaker 1: seventy four and a half, Pirates under seventy one and
Speaker 1: a half, uh, Philly's under eighties five and a half,
Speaker 1: and the Braves under ninety and a half. All right,
Speaker 1: so let's let's drill down on some of those. Let's
Speaker 1: start with the Rockies, because I've had a a pretty
Speaker 1: good relationship over the last three years bidding Rockies. Was
Speaker 1: right about them on the over one year. I think
Speaker 1: I was wrong a couple of years ago, and then
Speaker 1: I was right again on the under easily last year.
Speaker 1: What is your thought on the Rockies under it's bad team?
Speaker 1: And I bet at early sort of anticipating that Nolan
Speaker 1: Ronado might get traded. He hasn't yet, but but I
Speaker 1: still think he's he's probably closer to the end of
Speaker 1: his Colorado careers and you know, it's probably time for
Speaker 1: him to move to a team that came put together
Speaker 1: a winner. So yeah, I think you lose Eronado. That's
Speaker 1: gonna drop a couple of games. And I just I
Speaker 1: don't like the team. I don't like there, you know,
Speaker 1: I don't like them in comparison to everybody else in
Speaker 1: the division. And I don't like the stadium. Other than
Speaker 1: other than that, I can't think of anything I don't
Speaker 1: I don't like about them, and I don't like their stadium.
Speaker 1: It's just so tough that that is one of those
Speaker 1: teams that perennially if you take an over on the Rockies,
Speaker 1: it's just such a frustrating experience to live through that bet.
Speaker 1: We don't often talk about that, right Jason, like the
Speaker 1: experience of actually dealing with that bet for the course
Speaker 1: of a season. But Rockies overs are particularly frustrating just
Speaker 1: because that ballpark. Do as I said, many times, do
Speaker 1: you last year you may have said it as well,
Speaker 1: I don't know what they're doing in there, but it
Speaker 1: certainly isn't baseball in that stadium. Something else. Yeah, Um,
Speaker 1: all right, let's talk about did you did you mention
Speaker 1: the Marlins on that list? As well. Marlins, Oh, Marlin's
Speaker 1: was it over? We'll talk about them tomorrow. I'm sorry,
Speaker 1: Phillies and Braves, and at least because those are related,
Speaker 1: So Phillies and Braves. You like the under on both
Speaker 1: the Phillies and the Braves. What numbers did you get them? An?
Speaker 1: We'll flash those up on the screen at Visa dot
Speaker 1: Com and the Visa app. But talk to me about
Speaker 1: those two teams in the n L least Braves ninety
Speaker 1: and a half, Phillies five and a half. It's it's
Speaker 1: not so much an indictment on either team not being
Speaker 1: really good as much as the their division being competitive.
Speaker 1: And I just don't see either one of those teams
Speaker 1: really running away and and you know, especially don't see
Speaker 1: the Braves winning over ninety games this year. And I
Speaker 1: like the Brave, So I'm I'm happy to take the
Speaker 1: hunders on those numbers and pair it with a with
Speaker 1: a very low over on the Marlins. Let you talk
Speaker 1: about tomorrow. We'll talk about them tomorrow. They were there.
Speaker 1: They are on the screen right here at Visa dot Com.
Speaker 1: These are all courtesy of the South Point Hotel Casino, Atlanta.
Speaker 1: Currently at ninety one was Philly currently at right there,
Speaker 1: Jeff six currently in those numbers, those are both both
Speaker 1: good numbers, so both genders both better than the ones
Speaker 1: you got them at correct. Yeah, okay, um, I could
Speaker 1: have stopped by south Point. You should have stopped by
Speaker 1: this point, all right, um? And then you said also
Speaker 1: for the others, you you have the Pirates under as well. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I think they're probably the worst team in baseball. Worse
Speaker 1: than the Giants, worse than the Orioles, worse than the Tigers.
Speaker 1: I don't think the Yeah. Actually I have overs on
Speaker 1: two of those three teams you mentioned. Pittsburgh's at seventy currently,
Speaker 1: So why why the worst in your opinion? Just comprehensive
Speaker 1: horrific baseball team. The same reason I say for most
Speaker 1: teams is the division issue. They have four other teams
Speaker 1: in their division that are all much better other than them,
Speaker 1: so they don't really get any time, offer any any
Speaker 1: easy games. They're constantly gonna be getting the asses kicked. Ah.
Speaker 1: I don't like the the rebuilding sort of attitude they have,
Speaker 1: and they're they're they're admitting and you know, look, we're
Speaker 1: we hired a new GM, we're rebuilding, and you know
Speaker 1: they traded Starlin Marte. They're they're not really doing a
Speaker 1: ton to add to the team. It's it's they exist.
Speaker 1: It's nice, but they're not spending money. They're you know,
Speaker 1: they're not going to make any moves at the trade
Speaker 1: deadline to be competitive. Just what's there to like? On
Speaker 1: the over with the Pirates, I I can't find find
Speaker 1: an upside. I just sit downside, all right? So unders
Speaker 1: therefore unders on the Astros, under on the Pirates, under
Speaker 1: on the Braves, under on the Phillies, under on the Rockies.
Speaker 1: Jason's got one more under. It's in the NL Central.
Speaker 1: We'll get to that momentarily, and Jason, I might ask
Speaker 1: you a question about political markets. Will do that? Coming
Speaker 1: back Jason Wygarden at spread A PDA hang out one second,
Speaker 1: coming back on a numbers game at Visa the Sports
Speaker 1: Betting Network. Welcome back to a numbers game with Jill Alexander.
Speaker 1: Back on the numbers game. Indeed, it is Gill Alexander
Speaker 1: right here Visa the Sports Betting Network series XM, channel
Speaker 1: two oh four. Jason wine Garten is with us at
Speaker 1: spread a pedia. All right, as far as your final
Speaker 1: under in baseball and again let's review Houston Astros, Philadelphia Phillies,
Speaker 1: Atlanta Braves, Colorado Rockies, and you say they're the worst
Speaker 1: team in baseball. The Pittsburgh Pirates. One last under, sir,
Speaker 1: and it's from the NL Central and Central the St.
Speaker 1: Louis Cardinals under eight and a half eight seven. Now,
Speaker 1: you still obviously don't like it as much at eighty seven,
Speaker 1: But would you still bet it at eighty seven? Close? Again,
Speaker 1: A lot of these will go over and tomorrow I
Speaker 1: pair a lot of overs with an under, so I
Speaker 1: would probably still better if you could find a competitive
Speaker 1: number on the other side that I'm looking for. Um Okay,
Speaker 1: I guess I can kind of kind of get into
Speaker 1: it real quick and just say my my division bet
Speaker 1: for the NL Central is my one sort of upset
Speaker 1: change different team this year, it's the Cincinnati Reds to
Speaker 1: win the division. So I think I think the Cardinals
Speaker 1: take a step back. I think the Cubs take a
Speaker 1: step back. I think I think a lot of a
Speaker 1: lot of teams will have games to pick up playing
Speaker 1: the Pirates so often. So well, you again, for those
Speaker 1: of who missed the nuances of that, Jason has sort
Speaker 1: of hinted in both cases, Phillies and Braves. Under is
Speaker 1: in some way correlated with the Maralins over, which we'll
Speaker 1: talk about tomorrow, as is the unders in the NL
Speaker 1: Central Pirates and Cardinals with the over on the red
Speaker 1: So you do you have a division bet on them?
Speaker 1: I don't. I don't have a division bet on the Reds.
Speaker 1: I took I took their winds all over because I
Speaker 1: could still see situations where they're second in division and
Speaker 1: a wild card team. You know, So I'm I'm not
Speaker 1: in love with a lot of the early numbers. I
Speaker 1: looked at pen and futures divisions. I really believe you're
Speaker 1: probably gonna get better numbers on a lot of this
Speaker 1: stuff in season, because it's not like anybody's going to
Speaker 1: run away with a division or be a prohibitive pennant
Speaker 1: favorite other than the Dodges of the Yankees after the
Speaker 1: first month. So you know, why invest in in February
Speaker 1: or March or even April when I could put that
Speaker 1: money to work in Mayorge own totally, And as we've
Speaker 1: I've said this on this show so many times, pre
Speaker 1: flop futures betting markets some of the worst value you
Speaker 1: will find in anything season win totals still some of
Speaker 1: the greatest. Because you have a hundred sixty two games,
Speaker 1: you can overcome negative variants, you know, even if you
Speaker 1: don't have credit somewhere. You know, if you're if you
Speaker 1: have to live through that for six month, I get
Speaker 1: if there's an opportunity to cause but at least it's
Speaker 1: a very cerebral bet. At least you're getting, um, you know,
Speaker 1: it's it's a very well thought out thing. Futures, you're
Speaker 1: just not getting the bang for your buck, even with
Speaker 1: something like the Reds. It is not sexy enough at
Speaker 1: this point. It's hard not to like that rotation though,
Speaker 1: with Trevor Bauer, Sonny Gray, Luis Castillo. By the way,
Speaker 1: Trevor Bauer shout out to Trevor Bauer for being among
Speaker 1: the most vocal against the Astros. Love hearing from Trevor Bauer.
Speaker 1: Jason will do this tomorrow. We'll we'll come back with
Speaker 1: the overs tomorrow. Okay, same time, same time. I'll be here,
Speaker 1: my man. Thank you so much. Jason Weingarten, Professional Sports
Speaker 1: Better Rights for Points Brand Weekly on Baseball and beyond.
Speaker 1: We look forward to all the thoughts that he has
Speaker 1: about baseball season win totals in written for him as well.
Speaker 1: He'll be back on the show tomorrow to talk about overs.
Speaker 1: My baseball season win totals manifesto coming up at some
Speaker 1: point too. Whenever I get off my lazy button, start
Speaker 1: to write three and oh last year, So three and oh.
Speaker 1: I was three and old last year on the show. Jason,
Speaker 1: I think was about two and oh or three and
Speaker 1: o with his season win totals. Maybe I'm shure changing
Speaker 1: and I can't remember how many he had. And Roxy
Speaker 1: was about eight and one and then had the Nationals
Speaker 1: mid season win it all had Tampa Bay. I think
Speaker 1: to get into the playoffs. Roxy had a dream season.
Speaker 1: Roxy will be on the show here within a couple
Speaker 1: of weeks. Welcome back to a Numbers game with Jill Alexander.
Speaker 1: Back on the Numbers game, jeff Parlay putting up the
Speaker 1: number sign on me. Oh, I see what you're saying now,
Speaker 1: little signals from behind the glass from Parlay. Jason Weingar
Speaker 1: was on with us yesterday. He gave us his favorite
Speaker 1: Major League Baseball season win total unders. Help me out here, Jeffrey.
Speaker 1: These were the I think he gave out six. Uh
Speaker 1: one was the Houston Astros. That's where we started. Uh.
Speaker 1: Then we had the Braves and the Phillies from the
Speaker 1: n L East. We also had the Cardinals and the
Speaker 1: Pirates from the yed L Central who He described the
Speaker 1: Pirates as the worst team in Major League Baseball, and
Speaker 1: I believe it was under on the Rockies as well.
Speaker 1: One of his reasons was, I hate everything about them,
Speaker 1: including their stage. Muh So those are the six h
Speaker 1: unders in Major League Baseball, the Astros and then that
Speaker 1: quintetive teams from the National League. Today we talked about
Speaker 1: his favorite Major League Baseball season win total overs from
Speaker 1: somewhere under a cloud of smoking southern California. So, Buddy,
Speaker 1: Jason Weingar, and good morning Jason, Good morning Gil. How's
Speaker 1: it going. All right, let's talk about overs. You have
Speaker 1: a handful of these. You mentioned a couple yesterday, and Uh,
Speaker 1: usually when we use the word correlated, we're talking about
Speaker 1: parlays and betting. But I guess there is some correlation
Speaker 1: here because you have the unders with the Braves and
Speaker 1: the Phillies. It is somewhat correlated. As we mentioned yesterday
Speaker 1: that you have the over on the Marlins. What number
Speaker 1: did you get the Miami Marlins at sixty three and
Speaker 1: a half currently here at the South Point Hotel Casino.
Speaker 1: That's what I got, sixty three and a half. I
Speaker 1: wouldn't I wouldn't chase that number very much higher for
Speaker 1: for action. So sixty and a half good number what
Speaker 1: you're thinking there. I mean, obviously it's not a very
Speaker 1: high bar, too clear, That's that's pretty much exactly. It's
Speaker 1: it's a very low bar. And you know, a moderately
Speaker 1: competent team should be able to get sixty five wins.
Speaker 1: So they have a nice pitching staff. I don't hate
Speaker 1: any of their starting pitchers really, all right, doesn't hate
Speaker 1: any of the starting pitchers. The other one that had
Speaker 1: a a loose correlation with was the Cincinnati Reds. You were,
Speaker 1: we were under on the Cardinals. You run around the Pirates.
Speaker 1: We talked about the Reds. The Reds, in many ways
Speaker 1: among baseball circles, are sort of the flavor of the
Speaker 1: month right there. There's a lot to like with the Reds.
Speaker 1: We talked about their starting staff yesterday, uh Sonny Gray
Speaker 1: and uh and Trevor Bauer and Louis Castillo obviously headlining
Speaker 1: that group. You do not have a pick on them
Speaker 1: to win the division. We talked about the fact that
Speaker 1: we don't love the bank for your buck on future's
Speaker 1: odds there, but you do have them over. Their number
Speaker 1: at the south point right now is eighty four. Where
Speaker 1: do you have them? I got eighty three and a half,
Speaker 1: So eighty eighty four and still be playable. I've seen
Speaker 1: up to eighty five and a half. Wasn't dying to
Speaker 1: play all the way up to eighty five and a half.
Speaker 1: But I like them. I think they made some good
Speaker 1: moves this offseason. They got Nick Castilianos, they signed the
Speaker 1: guy from Japan, Akayama. Uh, there's just a lot to like,
Speaker 1: a lot of a lot of positives, a lot of
Speaker 1: positive momentum for them. And what's it called we talked.
Speaker 1: I mentioned to you yesterday the nl Central odds. They're
Speaker 1: like two and a half to one to win the
Speaker 1: NFL Central. Just you know, they've They've made a nice,
Speaker 1: nice improvement year over year and I'm I'm interested to
Speaker 1: watch them and you know, see how they play all
Speaker 1: right now? Now? If I know Jason wine Garden and
Speaker 1: I do. By the way, you can follow Jason at
Speaker 1: spread Apia on Twitter. Always a fascinating Twitter follow you
Speaker 1: are all about Listen, you're in southern California. We watched
Speaker 1: the Dodgers very closely. Are we over on the do
Speaker 1: Dgers again? This year? I did. I did bet over
Speaker 1: on the Dodgers. But let me practace this by saying, UM,
Speaker 1: a lot of what I bet and and the ways
Speaker 1: I've got. If I'm sitting in front of the computer
Speaker 1: and news breaks, I can pick off numbers. So when
Speaker 1: the initial Mookie Betts trade went through, and remember it
Speaker 1: took a week or so to UH to actually finalize,
Speaker 1: But but when it when it went through and and
Speaker 1: all the reporters broke the news, I bet over ninety
Speaker 1: eight and a half wins and you know, minus one
Speaker 1: thirty or something because I knew. I knew that number
Speaker 1: wasn't gonna last. And unfortunately I didn't also bet the
Speaker 1: Red Sox under at the same time. I probably should have.
Speaker 1: But yes, I did bet the Dodgers over. I do
Speaker 1: expect them to walk easily walk into a hundred winds.
Speaker 1: I wouldn't I wouldn't rush to bet over a hundred
Speaker 1: two wins, But honestly, I don't see how they don't
Speaker 1: hit the over on any of these members with with
Speaker 1: the team they have and the ammunition they have to
Speaker 1: continue to add more players this year. I mean, it's
Speaker 1: it's not out of the question that they still they
Speaker 1: still get not Fernando Francisco lind Or if if the
Speaker 1: Indian to move them, so you imagine, God, I could,
Speaker 1: I think. And that's the thing is that I think
Speaker 1: the Dodgers sort of are gonna be playing this season
Speaker 1: with with sort of a little anger. And it might
Speaker 1: it might not translate to hit by pitches or anger
Speaker 1: on the field, but I could see the front office
Speaker 1: being more aggressive this year and saying, you want to
Speaker 1: you want to see what we're gonna do when we're angry, Well,
Speaker 1: let's add lind Or to this lineup and and see
Speaker 1: how you beat us. Now it's at one o one
Speaker 1: now at the south point one a one and a
Speaker 1: half over the west coast. You would probably stay off
Speaker 1: that at this point. If if you were really looking
Speaker 1: for action, I tell you, Dodgers over a pass, I wouldn't.
Speaker 1: I wouldn't really try to to you know, get the
Speaker 1: dodge is on an under there, but you know it's
Speaker 1: just so high when you're when you're taking it over
Speaker 1: a hundred. That's amazing total on any team. Just what
Speaker 1: are you what are you betting that nothing's gonna go wrong,
Speaker 1: everything was gonna be great that you know, there's better
Speaker 1: best than that. That's that's what I'm saying. Well, for
Speaker 1: those who have who have followed you followed me for
Speaker 1: many years. I mean, one of the things I always
Speaker 1: say about baseball season win totals is there is a
Speaker 1: I mean, this is a case for everything, but with
Speaker 1: baseball season win totals in a hundred and sixty two games,
Speaker 1: again where you can overcome negative variants, it also means
Speaker 1: more when you say this is the this is the
Speaker 1: bet where there really is a spectrum of possibilities things
Speaker 1: go completely your way during a season, you know, or
Speaker 1: the other way that you get a complete you know,
Speaker 1: rash of injuries or whatever it is, or things just
Speaker 1: don't work out in the parts that are you know,
Speaker 1: or hit or miss, and of course there's a spectrum
Speaker 1: in between that, and so yeah, that's exactly right. It's
Speaker 1: we've gotten to the point now with the Dodgers and
Speaker 1: the Yankees specifically where the number is so high. The
Speaker 1: Yankees are also above to check it down. Man now
Speaker 1: down Now it's the Beating the Book Podcast, still Alegnon
Speaker 1: and Thomas, the whole bunch of podcasts. This is one
Speaker 1: of them that is from a little earlier, a few
Speaker 1: weeks back. It's season win totals in Major League Baseball
Speaker 1: from both Roxy Roxborrow, the legendary Roxy Roxborrow and Jason Weingarten,
Speaker 1: who have been so good on season win tolls for
Speaker 1: so many years on the show Roxy with just a
Speaker 1: remarkable year last year. This is obviously a question Marcus,
Speaker 1: to whether or not there's going to be some applicable
Speaker 1: value to this. But in case the season is truncated,
Speaker 1: maybe there's an equivalent win percentage that could inform some
Speaker 1: of our wagers. We shall see. Nonetheless, always interesting, always informative,
Speaker 1: always insightful from these two on the Beating the Book Podcast.
Speaker 1: Enjoy with Jill Alexander that Chicago bullstat that we gave
Speaker 1: out one twenty one against winning teams courtesy of want
Speaker 1: to give him credit, Casey Johnson, bulls Insider f NBC Chicago,
Speaker 1: twenty nine years of the Tribune. You know him Bill,
Speaker 1: twenty nine years of the Tribune. Casey Johnson, thank you
Speaker 1: for that. Let's bring him in, Ladies and gentlemen, from
Speaker 1: somewhere under a cloud of smoke in southern California. It's
Speaker 1: his time a year. Also writes for Point Spread Weekly,
Speaker 1: talking Major League Baseball. It's Jason Weingarten. Good morning, Jason,
Speaker 1: Good morning cal how's it going? Just going well? Man?
Speaker 1: Great to hear you. Let me just ask you this
Speaker 1: off the top, what was your favorite part and my
Speaker 1: favorite I'll put that in quotes. What was your favorite
Speaker 1: part of Rob Rob Manfred's uh interview yesterday with Karl
Speaker 1: Ravit regarding the Astros scandal. You know, I didn't actually
Speaker 1: watch it. I just saw the clip in the news,
Speaker 1: So yeah, it wasn't anything new. Really, It's just kind
Speaker 1: of disappointing that that nothing's really gonna happen, and he
Speaker 1: wants to fall to just move on. He looked, first
Speaker 1: of all, he looked awful, and I couldn't believe a
Speaker 1: couple of a couple of responses, you know, hey, are
Speaker 1: you gonna are you gonna strip them of the title?
Speaker 1: And I'm not a strip of title, strip of title
Speaker 1: kind of guy, vacate title kind of guy, But I
Speaker 1: believe there was ever a title to be vacated. It's
Speaker 1: that one in and Rob Manfred was like, no, no,
Speaker 1: I don't believe in that kind of all right, well,
Speaker 1: what about the players being punished? I don't know MLB,
Speaker 1: you know the players those Asians though, it was just
Speaker 1: sort of this horrific. They're just like, oh god, this
Speaker 1: is getting worse. As if you didn't think the the
Speaker 1: Jim Crane interview could be any worse, Rob Manfred doubling down. Anyway, Um,
Speaker 1: let's talk unders, and let's start there. I'm guessing that
Speaker 1: perhaps of all of these, because a couple of these
Speaker 1: are are not gonna be bettable yet at the number
Speaker 1: that you got them at, did you bet the Houston
Speaker 1: Astros under, because that would be one of them, I'm
Speaker 1: guessing that would not be there. I did under ninety
Speaker 1: six and a half, ninety four and a half, so
Speaker 1: it's you got it at ninety six and a half,
Speaker 1: but it is at ninety four and a half now,
Speaker 1: so that's one. So that's two games off. So that's
Speaker 1: that's one that's not quite Would you still bet it
Speaker 1: at ninety four and a half, Yeah, I bet it.
Speaker 1: I also bet it at ninety four and a half.
Speaker 1: Did Okay, give us your now beyond beyond the scandal,
Speaker 1: beyond the signs stealing. What is your reasoning, what is
Speaker 1: your baseball reasoning? They lost Garrett Cole, they they hired
Speaker 1: Dusty Dusty Baker to manage the team. Uh, you know,
Speaker 1: I I totally understand why you would still want to
Speaker 1: play the over It's it's a really good lineup. Um,
Speaker 1: there's nothing wrong with the lineup. I'm just gonna kind
Speaker 1: of go out on a little bit of a narrative
Speaker 1: limb and say that they're gonna have a tough season.
Speaker 1: They're gonna have a lot of distractions, you know. And
Speaker 1: I don't have anything against Dusty Baker. I just don't
Speaker 1: think he's going to lead them to ninety wins. I
Speaker 1: I just don't. Here's what I love about that, because
Speaker 1: you, you you and I are very much based on numbers,
Speaker 1: and we adhere to them pretty strongly. But I do
Speaker 1: agree with what you said. I actually think that the
Speaker 1: narrative matters here, and I think there is a sense
Speaker 1: of and I'm not talking about oh, they're gonna get
Speaker 1: thrown at and the media is gonna be on Maybe
Speaker 1: that's part of it too, But I just don't know Jason,
Speaker 1: how good they were, you know what I mean? Like,
Speaker 1: so all of this cast doubt on everything. For me,
Speaker 1: I'm not going to bet a team over that number
Speaker 1: when I'm not convinced there is good based on everything
Speaker 1: we've learned as our eyes told us they were back
Speaker 1: in the day, because we don't know anything anymore about
Speaker 1: this team. I do also think that division has gotten better.
Speaker 1: So all the Dusty Baker thing is interesting though, because
Speaker 1: I always say this about Dusty Weathers in San Francisco,
Speaker 1: d C, Chicago, wherever he's been Cincinnati. Not only not
Speaker 1: the best in game decision maker, but he also seems
Speaker 1: to get unlucky a lot too when he does when
Speaker 1: he does make good decisions. Um, I'm with you, And
Speaker 1: you also point out, what if this team starts slow,
Speaker 1: is he the guy to get them out of that?
Speaker 1: I don't think so. I'm not sure. I mean, I
Speaker 1: feel and I don't like to to talk a lot
Speaker 1: of trash on Dusty because he's he's actually a good
Speaker 1: manager and he's a good guy. But they didn't hire
Speaker 1: him to win games. They they hired him to to
Speaker 1: stand at the podium. You know. This week, while the
Speaker 1: team was speaking and basically be a credibility shield. That
Speaker 1: was the best way I heard it described in an
Speaker 1: article is that he was hired to shield them from
Speaker 1: criticism and make them more credible that they're you know,
Speaker 1: they're changing the organization, which I don't really believe a
Speaker 1: credibility shield. That's an interesting thing. All right. Give me
Speaker 1: a couple other unders. Rockies under seventy four and a half,
Speaker 1: Pirates under seventy one and a half, uh, Philly's under
Speaker 1: eighties five and a half, and the Braves under ninety
Speaker 1: and a half. All right, so let's let's drill down
Speaker 1: on some of those. Let's start with the Rockies, because
Speaker 1: I've had a a pretty good relationship over the last
Speaker 1: three years bidding Rockies. Was right about them on the
Speaker 1: over one year. I think I was wrong a couple
Speaker 1: of years ago, and then I was right again on
Speaker 1: the under easily last year. What is your thought on
Speaker 1: the Rockies under it's bad team? And I bet at
Speaker 1: early sort of anticipating that Nolan Ronado might get traded.
Speaker 1: He hasn't yet, but I still think he's he's probably
Speaker 1: closer to the end of his Colorado careers, and you know,
Speaker 1: it's probably time for him to move to the team
Speaker 1: that comes put together winner. So yeah, I think you
Speaker 1: lose Eronado. That's gonna drop a couple of games. And
Speaker 1: I just I don't like the team. I don't like there,
Speaker 1: you know, I don't like them in comparison to everybody
Speaker 1: else in the division. And I don't like the stadium.
Speaker 1: Other than other than that, I can't think of anything
Speaker 1: I don't I don't like about them, and I don't
Speaker 1: like their stadium. It's just so tough that that is
Speaker 1: one of those teams that perennially if you take an
Speaker 1: over on the Rockies, it's just such a frustrating experience
Speaker 1: to live through that bet. We don't often talk about that,
Speaker 1: right Jason, like the experience of actually dealing with that
Speaker 1: bet for the course of a season. But Rockies overs
Speaker 1: are particularly frustrated just because that ballpark. As I said
Speaker 1: many times, do you last year you may have said
Speaker 1: it as well, I don't know what they're doing in there,
Speaker 1: but it certainly isn't baseball in that stadium. Something else. Yeah, Um,
Speaker 1: all right, let's talk about did you did you mention
Speaker 1: the Marlins on that list as well? Marlin's over Marlin's
Speaker 1: was it over. We'll talk about them tomorrow. I'm sorry,
Speaker 1: Phillies and Braves, and at least because those are related,
Speaker 1: So Phillies and Braves. You like the under on both
Speaker 1: the Phillies and the Braves. What numbers did you get them? An?
Speaker 1: We'll flash those up on the screen at Visa dot
Speaker 1: Com and the Visa app. But talk to me about
Speaker 1: those two teams in the NL least Braves ninety and
Speaker 1: a half, Phillies eighty five and a half. It's it's
Speaker 1: not so much an indictment on either team not being
Speaker 1: really good as much as the division, their division being competitive,
Speaker 1: and I just don't see either one of those teams
Speaker 1: really running away and and you know, especially don't see
Speaker 1: the Braves winning over ninety games this year. And I
Speaker 1: like the Brave, So I'm I'm happy to take the
Speaker 1: unders on those numbers and pair it with a with
Speaker 1: a very low over on the Marlins, which we'll talk
Speaker 1: about tomorrow. We'll talk about them tomorrow. There were there.
Speaker 1: They are on the screen right here at Visa dot Com.
Speaker 1: These are all courtesy of the South Point Hotel Casino Atlanta.
Speaker 1: Currently at ninety one. Was Philly currently at right there
Speaker 1: Jeff six currently in those numbers, those are both both
Speaker 1: good numbers, so boths both better than the ones you
Speaker 1: got them at correct. Yeah, okay, um, I could have
Speaker 1: stopped by South Point. You should have stopped by this point,
Speaker 1: all right, um? And then you said also for the others,
Speaker 1: you you have the Pirates under as well. Yeah. I
Speaker 1: think they're probably the worst team in baseball. Worse than
Speaker 1: the Giants, worse than the Orioles, worse than the Tigers.
Speaker 1: I don't think the Yeah, actually I I have overs
Speaker 1: on two of those three teams you mentioned. Wow, Pittsburgh's
Speaker 1: at seventy currently, So why why the worst in your opinion,
Speaker 1: just comprehensive horrific baseball team. The same reason I say
Speaker 1: for most teams is the division issue. They have four
Speaker 1: other teams in their division that are all all much
Speaker 1: better than them, so they don't really get any time,
Speaker 1: offer any any easy games. They're constantly gonna be getting
Speaker 1: the asses kicked. Ah. I don't like the the rebuilding
Speaker 1: sort of attitude they have, and they're they're they're admitting
Speaker 1: and you know, look, we're we hired a new GM,
Speaker 1: we're rebuilding, and you know they traded Starlin Marte. They're
Speaker 1: they're not really doing a ton to add to the team.
Speaker 1: It's it's they exist. It's nice, but they're not spending money.
Speaker 1: They're you know, they're not going to make any moves
Speaker 1: at the trade deadline to be competitive. Just what's they're
Speaker 1: like on the over with the Pirates. I I can't
Speaker 1: find find an upside. I just sit downside. Alright, So
Speaker 1: unders therefore unders on the Astros, under on the Pirates,
Speaker 1: under on the Braves, under on the Phillies, there on
Speaker 1: the Rockies. Jason's got one more under. It's in the
Speaker 1: NL Central. We'll get to that momentarily, and Jason, I
Speaker 1: might ask you a question about political markets. Will do that.
Speaker 1: Coming back Jason Wigarden at spread A PDA hang out
Speaker 1: one second, coming back on a numbers game at Visa
Speaker 1: the Sports Betting Network. Welcome back to a numbers game
Speaker 1: with Jill Alexander. Back on the numbers game. Indeed, it
Speaker 1: is Gil Alexander right here, Visa the Sports Betting Network,
Speaker 1: serious XM channel two O four. Jason wine Garden is
Speaker 1: with us at spread A Pedia. Alright, as far as
Speaker 1: your final under in baseball again, let's review Houston Astros
Speaker 1: Philadelphia Phillies, Atlanta Braves, Colorado Rockies, and you say they're
Speaker 1: the worst team in baseball. The Pittsburgh Pirates. One last under, sir,
Speaker 1: and it's from the NL Central and Central the St.
Speaker 1: Louis Cardinals under eight and a half eight seven. Now
Speaker 1: you still obviously you don't like it as much at
Speaker 1: eighty seven, But would you still bet it at eighty seven? Close? Um? Again,
Speaker 1: a lot of these will go over and tomorrow I
Speaker 1: pair a lot of overs with an under, so I
Speaker 1: would probably still bet it if you could find a
Speaker 1: competitive number on the other side that I'm looking for. Um, Okay,
Speaker 1: I guess I can kind of kind of get into
Speaker 1: it real quick and just say my my division bet
Speaker 1: for the NL Central is my one sort of upset
Speaker 1: change different team this year. It's the Cincinnati Reds to
Speaker 1: win the division. So I think I think the Cardinals
Speaker 1: take a step back. I think the Cubs take a
Speaker 1: step back. I think I think a lot of a
Speaker 1: lot of teams will have games to pick up playing
Speaker 1: the Pirates so often. So well you again, for those
Speaker 1: of who missed the nuances that Jason has sort of
Speaker 1: hinted in both cases Phillies and Braves under is in
Speaker 1: some way correlated with the Maralins over, which we'll talk
Speaker 1: about tomorrow, as is the unders in the NL Central
Speaker 1: Pirates and Cardinals with the over on the red So
Speaker 1: you do you have a division bet on them? I don't.
Speaker 1: I don't have a division bet on the Reds. I
Speaker 1: took I took their winds all over because I can
Speaker 1: still see situations where they're second in the division and
Speaker 1: a wild card team. You know, So I'm I'm not
Speaker 1: in love with a lot of the early numbers. I
Speaker 1: looked at pen and futures divisions. I really believe you're
Speaker 1: probably gonna get better numbers on a lot of this
Speaker 1: stuff in season, because it's not like anybody's going to
Speaker 1: run away with a division or be a prohibitive pennant
Speaker 1: favorite other than the Dodges of the Yankees after the
Speaker 1: first month. So you know, why invest in in February
Speaker 1: or March or even April when I could put that
Speaker 1: money to work in mayage own totally, And as we've
Speaker 1: I've said this on this show so many times, pre
Speaker 1: flop futures betting markets some of the worst value you
Speaker 1: will find in anything. Season win totals still some of
Speaker 1: the greatest. Because you have a hundred sixty two games,
Speaker 1: you can overcome negative variants, you know, even if you
Speaker 1: don't have credit somewhere. You know, if you're if you
Speaker 1: have lived through that for six months, I get if
Speaker 1: there's an opportunity to cost. But at least it's a
Speaker 1: very cerebral bet. At least you're getting, um, you know,
Speaker 1: it's it's a very well thought out thing. Futures, you're
Speaker 1: just not getting a bang for your buck, even with
Speaker 1: something like the Reds not sexy enough at this point,
Speaker 1: it's hard not to like that rotation, though, with Trevor Bauer,
Speaker 1: Sonny Gray, and Luis Castillo. By the way, Trevor Bauer
Speaker 1: shout out to Trevor Bauer for being among the most
Speaker 1: vocal against the Astros. Love hearing from Trevor Bauer. Jason
Speaker 1: will do this tomorrow. We'll we'll come back with the
Speaker 1: overs tomorrow. Okay, same time, same time. I'll be here,
Speaker 1: my man. Thank you so much. Jason wein gartan Professional
Speaker 1: Sports Better Rights for Points brand Weekly on Baseball and beyond.
Speaker 1: We look forward to all the thoughts that he has
Speaker 1: about baseball season win totals. In written for him as well.
Speaker 1: He'll be back on the show tomorrow to talk about overs.
Speaker 1: My baseball season win totals manifesto coming up at some
Speaker 1: point too. Whenever I get off my lazy button, start
Speaker 1: to write three and oh last year, So three and oh.
Speaker 1: I was three and old last year on the show. Jason,
Speaker 1: I think was about two and oh or three and
Speaker 1: o with his season win totals. Maybe I'm short changing,
Speaker 1: and I can't remember how many he had. And Roxy
Speaker 1: was about eight and one and then had the Nationals
Speaker 1: mid season win it all had Tampa Bay. I think
Speaker 1: to get into the playoffs. Roxy had a dream season.
Speaker 1: Roxy will be on the show here within a couple
Speaker 1: of weeks. Welcome back to a numbers game with Gill Alexander.
Speaker 1: Back on the Numbers game, Jeff Parlay putting up the
Speaker 1: number sign on me. Oh, I see what you're saying now,
Speaker 1: little signals from behind the glass from Parlay. Jason Winegar
Speaker 1: was on with us yesterday. He gave us his favorite
Speaker 1: Major League Baseball season win total unders. Help me out here, Jeffrey.
Speaker 1: These were the I think he gave out six. Uh
Speaker 1: one was the Houston Astros. That's where we started. Uh
Speaker 1: then we had the Braves in the Phillies from the
Speaker 1: n L East. We also had the Cardinals and the
Speaker 1: Pirates from the yat L Central who He described the
Speaker 1: Pirates as the worst team in Major League Baseball, and
Speaker 1: I believe it was under on the Rockies as well.
Speaker 1: One of his reasons was I hate everything about them,
Speaker 1: including their stadium. So those are the six h unders
Speaker 1: in Major League Baseball, the Astros and then that quintetive
Speaker 1: teams from the National League. Today we talked about his
Speaker 1: favorite Major League Baseball season win total overs from somewhere
Speaker 1: under a cloud of smoking southern California. So, Buddy, Jason Weingar,
Speaker 1: and good morning Jason, Good morning Gil. How's it going.
Speaker 1: All right, let's talk about overs. You have a handful
Speaker 1: of these. You mentioned a couple yesterday, and uh, usually
Speaker 1: when we use the word correlated, we're talking about parlays
Speaker 1: and betting, but I guess there is some correlation here
Speaker 1: because you have the unders with the Braves and the Phillies.
Speaker 1: It is somewhat correlated. As we mentioned yesterday that you
Speaker 1: have the over on the Marlins. What number did you
Speaker 1: get the Miami Marlins at sixty three and a half
Speaker 1: currently here at the South Point Hotel Casino. That's what
Speaker 1: I got, sixty three and a half. I wouldn't I
Speaker 1: wouldn't chase that number very much higher for for action.
Speaker 1: So Alf, good number. What you're thinking there, I mean, obviously,
Speaker 1: it's not a very high bar to clear. That's that's
Speaker 1: pretty much exactly. It's it's a very low bar. And
Speaker 1: you know, a moderately competent team should be able to
Speaker 1: get sixty five wins. They have a nice pitching staff.
Speaker 1: I don't hate any of those starting pitchers, really, all right,
Speaker 1: doesn't hate any of the starting pitchers. The other one
Speaker 1: that had a a loose correlation with was the Cincinnati Reds.
Speaker 1: You were you were under on the Cardinals, you under
Speaker 1: on the Pirates. We talked about the Reds. The Reds,
Speaker 1: in many ways among baseball circles, are sort of the
Speaker 1: flavor of the month right there. There's a lot to
Speaker 1: like with the Reds. We talked about their starting staff yesterday,
Speaker 1: uh Sonny Gray and uh and Trevor Bauer and Louis
Speaker 1: Castillo obviously headlining that group. You do not have a
Speaker 1: pick on them to win the division. We talked about
Speaker 1: the fact that we don't love the bank for your
Speaker 1: buck on futures odds there, but you do have them
Speaker 1: over Their number at the south point right now is
Speaker 1: eighty four. Where do you have them? I got eighty
Speaker 1: three and a half, So eighty eight four and still
Speaker 1: be playable. I've seen up to eighty five and a half.
Speaker 1: Wasn't dying to play all the way up to eighty
Speaker 1: five and a half. But I like them. I think
Speaker 1: they made some good moves this offseason. They got Nick Castilianos,
Speaker 1: they signed the guy from Japan, Akayama. Uh, there's just
Speaker 1: a lot to like, a lot of a lot of positives,
Speaker 1: a lot of positive momentum for them. And what's it
Speaker 1: called we talked to you. I mentioned to you yesterday
Speaker 1: the n L Central odds. They're like two and a
Speaker 1: half to one to win the NFL Central. It's just, uh,
Speaker 1: you know, they've They've made a nice, nice improvement year
Speaker 1: over year and and I'm I'm interested to watch them
Speaker 1: and you know, see how they play alright now now
Speaker 1: if I know Jason win Garden and I do. By
Speaker 1: the way, you can follow Jason at spread a Pedia
Speaker 1: on Twitter. Always a fascinating Twitter follow. You are all
Speaker 1: about listen, you're in southern California. We watched the Dodgers
Speaker 1: very closely. Are we over all the Dodgers again this year?
Speaker 1: I did. I did bet over on the Dodgers. But
Speaker 1: let me practice this by saying, um, a lot of
Speaker 1: what I bet and and the ways I've got. If
Speaker 1: I'm sitting in front of the computer and news breaks,
Speaker 1: I can pick off numbers. So when the initial Mookie
Speaker 1: Betts trade went through, and remember it took a week
Speaker 1: or so to UH to actually finalize. But but when
Speaker 1: it when it went through and and all the reporters
Speaker 1: broke the news, I bet over ninety eight and a
Speaker 1: half wins and you know, minus one thirty or something
Speaker 1: because I knew. I knew that number wasn't gonna last.
Speaker 1: And unfortunately I didn't also bet the Red Sox under
Speaker 1: at the same time. I probably should have. But yes,
Speaker 1: I did bet the Dodgers over. I do expect them
Speaker 1: to walk easily walk into a hundred winds. I wouldn't
Speaker 1: I wouldn't rush to bet over a hundred two wins.
Speaker 1: But honestly, I don't see how they don't hit the
Speaker 1: overs on any of these members with with the team
Speaker 1: they have and the ammunition they have to continue to
Speaker 1: add more players this year. I mean, it's it's not
Speaker 1: out of the question that they still they still get
Speaker 1: not Fernando Francisco Lindor if if the Indians move them,
Speaker 1: so you imagine, God, I could, I think. And that's
Speaker 1: the thing is that I think the Dodgers sort of
Speaker 1: are going to be playing this season with with sort
Speaker 1: of a little anger. And it might it might not
Speaker 1: translate to hit my pitches or anger on the field,
Speaker 1: but I could see the front office being more aggressive
Speaker 1: this year and say, you want to you want to
Speaker 1: see what we're gonna do when we're angry, Well, let's
Speaker 1: add lind Or to this lineup and and see how
Speaker 1: you beat us. Now it's at one oh one now
Speaker 1: at the south point one a one and a half
Speaker 1: over the west gat you would probably stay off that
Speaker 1: at this point. If if you were really looking for action,
Speaker 1: I tell you, Dodgers over a pass, I wouldn't. I
Speaker 1: wouldn't really try to get the Dodgers on and under there.
Speaker 1: But you know, it's just so high when you when
Speaker 1: you're taking it over a hundred, that's amazing on any team.
Speaker 1: Just what are you? What are you betting that nothing's
Speaker 1: gonna go wrong, everything was gonna be great. That you know,
Speaker 1: there's better bet than that. That's that's what I'm saying.
Speaker 1: Well for those who have who have followed you followed
Speaker 1: me for many years. I mean, one of the things
Speaker 1: I always say about baseball season win totals is there
Speaker 1: is a I mean, this is a case for everything,
Speaker 1: but with baseball season win totals in a hundred and
Speaker 1: sixty two games, again where you can overcome negative variants.
Speaker 1: It also means more when you say this is the
Speaker 1: this is the bet where there really is a spectrum
Speaker 1: of possibilities things go completely your way during a season,
Speaker 1: you know, or the other way that you get a
Speaker 1: complete you know, rash of injuries or whatever it is,
Speaker 1: or things just don't work out in the parts that
Speaker 1: are you know, or hit or miss, and of course
Speaker 1: there's a spectrum in between that, and so yeah, that's
Speaker 1: exactly right. It's we've gotten to the point now with
Speaker 1: the Dodgers and the Yankee specifically where the number is
Speaker 1: so high and the Yankees are also above one here
Speaker 1: where to bet over on those as as bullish as
Speaker 1: we all are on those two teams and I've said
Speaker 1: it for two three years now. The chasm between the
Speaker 1: halves and the have nots in baseball just keeps getting
Speaker 1: wider and wider. Well, the teams at the top, and
Speaker 1: you'll have some thoughts on the teams at the bottom momentarily,
Speaker 1: which might buck that, But the teams at the top, Yeah,
Speaker 1: it's just not the best bet out there. We love
Speaker 1: the over. We don't want to bet the under. But god,
Speaker 1: I mean, you still are betting when you bet over
Speaker 1: over one on one, you there still is this thing
Speaker 1: of life kind of gets in the way sometimes for
Speaker 1: lack of a better way of putting it. So the
Speaker 1: Dodgers are at one on one, what are the Yankees
Speaker 1: at right here at the south point? Jeff? There one
Speaker 1: oh one and a half, isn't Yankees are one oh two?
Speaker 1: Even so the Yankees even still higher. Um, by the
Speaker 1: way that you alluded to the the hit by pitch prop.
Speaker 1: You didn't allude to that prop specifically, but you mentioned,
Speaker 1: uh that with the Dodgers and their anger against the
Speaker 1: Astros eighty three and a half was saying earlier, William
Speaker 1: Hill put this up hit by pitches. Uh, Astro's players
Speaker 1: getting hit by pitch eighty three and a half. I
Speaker 1: was mentioning earlier, I don't I'm not playing it because
Speaker 1: I don't know how it's going to go. We were
Speaker 1: sort of speculating, Jeff Parl's my producer and I that
Speaker 1: if you did this April, May, June, July, August, that
Speaker 1: would be something we might be interested in. But as
Speaker 1: a season long bed, there's too many variables. We don't
Speaker 1: know how baseball is going to react. Any thoughts for
Speaker 1: you on that problem. I saw eighties three and a
Speaker 1: half and I saw some off shows post eighty nine
Speaker 1: and a half, and my initial my initial thought was
Speaker 1: that the over, you know, just that the over blindly,
Speaker 1: and then I saw some people sort of break it
Speaker 1: down and say that would be, you know, one of
Speaker 1: the third or fourth highest hit by pitch totals in
Speaker 1: history or something, which which is to say it's not
Speaker 1: gonna happen. But why why walk up money in a
Speaker 1: problem like that? That it's the value thing. I'm just
Speaker 1: you're not getting You're not getting sufficient value the way
Speaker 1: minus wasn't ten that prop. So I'm not super interested
Speaker 1: in that. It's it's a nice headline grabber for for
Speaker 1: the books. But yeah, you're just not getting value there
Speaker 1: totally how I feel about it, exactly, how I feel.
Speaker 1: Not gonna play it myself. We'll come back Jason, hang
Speaker 1: out through the break. We've got a couple more overs
Speaker 1: from Jason. Want to get his larger season thoughts as well.
Speaker 1: So far on the overs, and again we recap the unders.
Speaker 1: The unders were the Astros, the Phillies, the Braves, the Rockies,
Speaker 1: the Cardinals and the Pirates. The overs thus far, uh, Dodgers, Marlins, Reds.
Speaker 1: Will get to a couple more. These may surprise you
Speaker 1: coming up on a numbers game right here at Visa
Speaker 1: the sports Betting netwhere welcome back to a numbers game
Speaker 1: with Jill Alexander and So my buddy he is on
Speaker 1: vacation in Rio, and he says to me, He's like, Yo,
Speaker 1: who's this Lizzo. There's somebody here named Lizzo that everybody's
Speaker 1: fawning all over. Who's Lizzo? You don't know who Lizzo is?
Speaker 1: So that's a myopic he is. It's the sports dating.
Speaker 1: I'm like, air down, check your nails, not nothing like that,
Speaker 1: juicy nothing. He's like, no, I never heard of her.
Speaker 1: It didn't know it. Liza was, Oh, I'm sorry, we're
Speaker 1: on there had no idea. I is Gil Alexander. We
Speaker 1: get our we get tweets at maybe the book. I
Speaker 1: always appreciate the feedback cover the damn line at b
Speaker 1: K fund one explain the theory behind futures. To me,
Speaker 1: you play one unit and wait six months for a result,
Speaker 1: though you could pick up one unit any day in
Speaker 1: six months. Seriously, I don't understand not being a jerk here. No, no, no,
Speaker 1: it's you're not being a jerk. It's a very valid question.
Speaker 1: By few. I don't think you mean futures. I think
Speaker 1: you're talking about season win totals, which is what Jason
Speaker 1: and I are talking about right here. And we'll bring
Speaker 1: Jason Weingarten back in at spread Apedia. Uh, understand where
Speaker 1: you're coming from. And this is one of the things
Speaker 1: that I always talk about with baseball season win totals.
Speaker 1: It is a lot. Listen, unless you've got a credit
Speaker 1: account somewhere. Let's be real, right where people are. Some
Speaker 1: people are privileged to have that. If you're a mere
Speaker 1: mortal betting season win totals and you are just betting,
Speaker 1: you know, minus one ten thing for and and half
Speaker 1: of the book holding your money for six months. I
Speaker 1: get it. I understand. Uh, that's why we don't talk
Speaker 1: about it for weeks and weeks and weeks and weeks.
Speaker 1: We just do a you know, a few segments on
Speaker 1: and get a few experts on it. We move on.
Speaker 1: But I will say this about baseball season win totals specifically,
Speaker 1: and this is why I do write a season a
Speaker 1: yearly manifesto. In baseball season win totals, it is still,
Speaker 1: of all the season long season win totals and major
Speaker 1: American sports, to me, again, the most cerebral and the
Speaker 1: one that makes the most sense because and you just
Speaker 1: think about it very intuitively. Pro football, you have sixteen games, Uh,
Speaker 1: you have a bad month, Your season win total bet
Speaker 1: could be toast, a rash of injury or just the
Speaker 1: wrong injury to the wrong person. You can be toast.
Speaker 1: College football, even shorter baseball is a hundred and sixty
Speaker 1: two points of data, and again you can overcome negative variants.
Speaker 1: You can figure out what teams will do at trade deadlines.
Speaker 1: So just in terms, hey, look, I get it. If
Speaker 1: you don't want to keep your money somewhere else for
Speaker 1: for six months, it's a very bad question. But if
Speaker 1: you're okay with doing that and you can gamble alongside,
Speaker 1: you know, with other funds, uh, it's about as smart
Speaker 1: a bed, I think as you can make. But your
Speaker 1: your point well taken, and there is a caveat that
Speaker 1: people must make about that. Anyway, we're bringing Jason Weingarten,
Speaker 1: who may or may not agree with my assessment there. Um,
Speaker 1: I don't know, do you, Jason? You you you would agree
Speaker 1: with that general thought? Yeah, I mean you you pointed
Speaker 1: out it helps if you could bet the monk credit,
Speaker 1: so you know, as opposed to going up to the
Speaker 1: window and plugg him in a bunch of these It's
Speaker 1: it's convenient. But I don't know. I just I find
Speaker 1: them fun. I just like I find most things to
Speaker 1: do with baseball fund so I would agree, I'll just
Speaker 1: do it. Um. Let's I just I saw some comments
Speaker 1: when we were at break. I just saw some comments
Speaker 1: from Nick Markekis. By the way, Yeah, Manfred should be
Speaker 1: embarrassed and everybody on the aspost deserves to get beat. Yeah,
Speaker 1: he said, everyone deserves not a beating, a beating beating, Yeah,
Speaker 1: which is not the prop By the way, again, at
Speaker 1: William Hill. It's more about beatings. It's about beatings. But
Speaker 1: that's how how mad people are. And Jason, I am like,
Speaker 1: I am unabashed at how mad. I don't care if
Speaker 1: I sound like I'm a hundred and ninety years old.
Speaker 1: This to me is exponentially worse than steroids. It just
Speaker 1: is if I know what's coming, I've hacked the game.
Speaker 1: And those Astros non apologies just absolutely tick me off
Speaker 1: even more. The owner was awful. Manford's response is awful.
Speaker 1: Everything about it is really really rouse me up and
Speaker 1: the players and Justin Turner crushed Manford with his comments
Speaker 1: to um so yeah, I mean I do agree with
Speaker 1: that one uh gentleman who tweeted about this in some
Speaker 1: weird way might be the best thing that's happened to
Speaker 1: baseball cynically speaking, because it really does raise interests like, oh,
Speaker 1: how is this gonna play out? The unions eventually gonna
Speaker 1: have to decide is it gonna stand with the Astros
Speaker 1: players or is it gonna stand with the rest of
Speaker 1: the union that wants to see something's done. I wouldn't
Speaker 1: really want to be Tony Clark that now. No, I
Speaker 1: would not either, Tony Clark, who runs the baseball players
Speaker 1: unions ahead of it anyway, All right, Jason, let's get
Speaker 1: to your other two overs now. Jeff Parlay, my producer
Speaker 1: producing number five, and I were hanging out yesterday and
Speaker 1: I tipped him off on what the other overs were
Speaker 1: that you had here, and one of them particularly is like,
Speaker 1: I gotta hear this explanation. But let's start with the
Speaker 1: one that's not the one that he's referring to. Let's
Speaker 1: start with the Baltimore Orioles, who I believe last year
Speaker 1: you and I were both on the under with the Orioles.
Speaker 1: You like the over on the Oriole lace explika me.
Speaker 1: I like over fifty six fifty six and a half specifically.
Speaker 1: I don't think there's a ton of variants that number.
Speaker 1: A lot of different numbers out there, but it's it's
Speaker 1: very hard to not win fifty seven games two years
Speaker 1: in a row. And it's not to say that the
Speaker 1: Orioles are more talented this year than we were last year,
Speaker 1: or or even better. I'm not even sure they're they're
Speaker 1: that much better year over year. It's more just a
Speaker 1: numbers play, especially if you're laying one oh five or
Speaker 1: even if you can get plus one hundred on it.
Speaker 1: I've seen I've seen some books begging for action on
Speaker 1: that over. It's so low, you know, it's sort of
Speaker 1: the kind it's the kind of bet where you just
Speaker 1: kind of close your eyes and press accept. You're not
Speaker 1: thrilled that you're betting it, you're not excited to watch
Speaker 1: the games, but it's it's just such a low number
Speaker 1: that I'm willing to take a shot on the over.
Speaker 1: The edge is clearly towards the over there and not
Speaker 1: the under. Yeah, and just do buttress what you're saying.
Speaker 1: And I talked about this with the Major League Baseball
Speaker 1: season win totals before one on vacation. I kind of
Speaker 1: do this every year. I do it in Point Spread Weekly,
Speaker 1: which you also write for on baseball and other things.
Speaker 1: Orioles were fifty four and one oh eight in the
Speaker 1: actual standings last year. But when you do put them
Speaker 1: through the prism of such things as build James Patagory
Speaker 1: theorem base runs, which has to do with the sequencing,
Speaker 1: they were in earnest right. If you look through those prisons,
Speaker 1: probably about a fifty eight or fifty nine win team,
Speaker 1: and you're like, oh, well, they still suck. Yes, I'm
Speaker 1: not saying they're any good, but they were all they
Speaker 1: already were supposed to be over the fifty six and
Speaker 1: a half that exist right now last year. So it's
Speaker 1: not that outlandish of a bet, is what Jason is
Speaker 1: uh sort of indicating there to go over on that.
Speaker 1: And you know, again, fifty six and a half, just
Speaker 1: if you're betting, If you're betting and under fifty six
Speaker 1: and a half like I did last year, you're basically
Speaker 1: counting down the games all season, you know, and you're
Speaker 1: mar you're the same thing with the over. Is it
Speaker 1: a hundred? Your margin of error on a fifty six
Speaker 1: and a half is so low that the last two
Speaker 1: weeks of the season you're gonna be sitting there saying,
Speaker 1: there's thirteen games left and I need them to go
Speaker 1: you know, six and seven or whatever, and you just
Speaker 1: have such little room for error it. I'm willing to
Speaker 1: take the side that that the book is is trying
Speaker 1: to get action on clearly, and you you hit it
Speaker 1: at something. Again, we mentioned this yesterday, the living through
Speaker 1: the bed I had three last year. The Rockies under
Speaker 1: was a coaster, The Dodgers over was a bit of
Speaker 1: a Coast job too. The Orioles under and you pointed
Speaker 1: out very well it was kind of coasty, but it
Speaker 1: was the one that even late you were like, well,
Speaker 1: they're the Orioles, so I'm just gonna bank on them
Speaker 1: being the Orioles. But any real average club could totally
Speaker 1: overcome this right now. So all it would have taken
Speaker 1: is one, you know, aberrational Orioles run, and we might
Speaker 1: have been toast too, So it's a it's well worth
Speaker 1: the point. So overall, care yeah, go ahead. You can't.
Speaker 1: You can't cash winners early in these markets. So let
Speaker 1: me tell you. For the NFL, one of my biggest bat,
Speaker 1: I bet this, you know, on multiple accounts what I
Speaker 1: could when when the Dolphins traded laymy tunsil, I bet
Speaker 1: under five wins, under four and a half in and
Speaker 1: under four wins for Dolphins, And that was looking like
Speaker 1: one of the best bets I ever made. They were
Speaker 1: owing seven, ended up with five wins, and I look stupid.
Speaker 1: So I mean, you just have no idea how these
Speaker 1: bets are gonna play out, And you know, like football,
Speaker 1: sixteen games is different than a hundred sixty two, But
Speaker 1: you know, you just can't cash a beat halfway through
Speaker 1: the season or two thirds of the way through the season.
Speaker 1: You just gotta watch them play out, and a lot
Speaker 1: of times, a lot of times they come very close
Speaker 1: to the numbers. We do that the last week or
Speaker 1: a couple of weeks of the baseball season, where there's
Speaker 1: always a handful of teams right six or seven, they're
Speaker 1: still in the balance come the last week or even
Speaker 1: to the last series of the major league baseball season.
Speaker 1: Now here's the last one. We're talking to. Jason wine
Speaker 1: Garden Pro Sports Better Rights for point Spread Weekly can
Speaker 1: fall him on Twitter at spread Apedia. Parlay. This is
Speaker 1: the one that you were most curious about over on
Speaker 1: the Tigers talk to us. Yep, what's the number you're
Speaker 1: get in the same thing. Fifty seven? I see fifty
Speaker 1: seven now south seven. Yeah, so fifty six and a
Speaker 1: half fifty seven? Still still all right? Uh? You know again,
Speaker 1: it's it's not not a bet that I have a
Speaker 1: huge conviction on that that I'm gonna tell you, Oh,
Speaker 1: this team's ten games better, or you know what, even
Speaker 1: five games better. I'm not sure they're that much better
Speaker 1: than that number. But what I am sure about is
Speaker 1: the Indians aren't as good a team in that division.
Speaker 1: The White Sox are the A L Reds, for you know,
Speaker 1: to say that like that, they're they're very hyped. The
Speaker 1: Royals are not very good. There's a lot of wins
Speaker 1: available in that division for a team to get over
Speaker 1: fifty seven wins. And the one thing, the one thing
Speaker 1: the Tigers have going for them is they have three
Speaker 1: pitching prospects that don't suck, that that are far from
Speaker 1: from sucking, are actually very good. Matt Manning, Katy mis
Speaker 1: and uh uh Screwball. I forgot the guy's first name,
Speaker 1: but those three pictures, and I don't expect all of
Speaker 1: them to be up this year, but I do expect
Speaker 1: at least one possibly to to get you know, a
Speaker 1: decent run on the rotation should help them a little bit,
Speaker 1: should should maybe get them to sixty wins. I mean,
Speaker 1: like I said, to to lose hundred and eight games
Speaker 1: or a hundred and five games year over year, you
Speaker 1: have to be an incredibly bad organization that's not trying
Speaker 1: to get better. And again just to Butcher's that, they
Speaker 1: were forty seven and one fourteen last year, forty seven
Speaker 1: and winning percentage. But if you go through if you
Speaker 1: believe in such things which I subscribe to, such as
Speaker 1: base runs. Again, sequencing has to do with your fortune
Speaker 1: or lack thereof in terms of the events printing, both
Speaker 1: offensively and defensively. So again, the hack that i'd like
Speaker 1: to just the example I like to give is if
Speaker 1: you had three singles, a home run, and three strikeouts
Speaker 1: in an inning, and they came in that order, three singles,
Speaker 1: let's say they were all on base. Then you hit
Speaker 1: the home run, whether they were on base or not. Um,
Speaker 1: you get four runs and the three strikeouts come at
Speaker 1: the end. But if you have the exact same events. UM,
Speaker 1: and let's say the strike let's say you get a
Speaker 1: single single single, they're all still on basis bases are juice,
Speaker 1: then you know, um, but the home run precedes those
Speaker 1: and then the strikeouts come, you only get one run.
Speaker 1: So basically it's it's there's an expected run total per
Speaker 1: events in every half inning of baseball, both offensively and defensively.
Speaker 1: And the Tigers got the worst of it last year,
Speaker 1: and through that prism, really, instead of being a forty
Speaker 1: seven win baseball team, they should have been a fifty
Speaker 1: four win baseball team. So as bad as they are,
Speaker 1: and they were bad, they weren't as bad as forty
Speaker 1: seven wins at least through that um, given that perspective,
Speaker 1: so not as much to improve on as a actual
Speaker 1: standings might reflect to the to the naked eye. If
Speaker 1: that makes any sense to folks, Jeffrey, are you uh?
Speaker 1: Are you okay? Are comfortable with that explanation on the
Speaker 1: over of the Tigers? Are you satisfied? Of course? But
Speaker 1: again that roster is just so so so bad. But
Speaker 1: if my again, remember we we all had the Casey
Speaker 1: mis Rookie of the Year ticket last year. If if
Speaker 1: he ends up reaching his potential, look, they could steal
Speaker 1: a few games here and there, and it's such a
Speaker 1: low number that you could get over that by accident.
Speaker 1: It really is an accidental six out of eight and
Speaker 1: all of a sudden, no wait a second, they just
Speaker 1: have to play three hundred and all they're they're they're there.
Speaker 1: So over for Jason, Dodgers, Tigers Orioles, um Red's and Marlins.
Speaker 1: Those are the five overs, now, Jason. If I asked
Speaker 1: you beyond these, if I just said, okay, um, look,
Speaker 1: we all know the Yankees are good. The Dodgers are good.
Speaker 1: I would assume the Astros would still be good. We'll see. Um,
Speaker 1: there's the defending champion Washington Nationals. What's the team besides
Speaker 1: the more vious one's like the Dodgers and Yankees. Let's
Speaker 1: just throw those two teams out, Like, what's the team
Speaker 1: none of us are thinking about that you think might
Speaker 1: actually make a run? Here? Is it again? Like a
Speaker 1: team like the Athletics is is definitely on that list.
Speaker 1: Red Sox, White Box are pretty pretty high up on
Speaker 1: the list. I think the Angels not necessarily getting slept on,
Speaker 1: but the Angels have improved, you know, significantly added. Adding
Speaker 1: Randon as a protection for Trout was a big move.
Speaker 1: They got Dylan Bunny, Julio Turan. I mean, I know
Speaker 1: those aren't names that to really move the meter for pitching,
Speaker 1: but those are those are guys that, hopefully, with with health,
Speaker 1: can give you a combined three hundred and almost four
Speaker 1: hundred endings of average to the slightly better than average pitching.
Speaker 1: You know, they got the best defense of shortstop in baseball.
Speaker 1: There's there's a lot of things to like about the
Speaker 1: Goals this year, and I don't like the Angels, so
Speaker 1: you know, it's it's it's it's a compliment coming from
Speaker 1: me that that they've put together a decent team, you know.
Speaker 1: And that's the thing, when or when I think about
Speaker 1: the A L. H A L. West, I could see
Speaker 1: a whole range of possibilities where the Astros aren't the
Speaker 1: first team in the division this year, they could easily
Speaker 1: be a wild card team. Let me decipher that sentence
Speaker 1: for Jason for those who didn't get that, he likes
Speaker 1: the Angels um as a as a team to do
Speaker 1: perhaps better than the conventional wisdom suggests this year. He
Speaker 1: doesn't like them from a human from a human standpoint
Speaker 1: or for whatever reason, as an organism. As an organization,
Speaker 1: I'm not a fan of that. That's right, as I
Speaker 1: guess that's a compliment from Jason that he thinks that
Speaker 1: team is going to do well. All right, Jason will
Speaker 1: have you back. We'll obviously talk more politics, but when
Speaker 1: you're when you're prepared to talk about some props like
Speaker 1: home runs and cy Young and that kind of stuff,
Speaker 1: we can talk about that as well. Before the sea. Yes, yeah,
Speaker 1: I'm I'm getting excited. So far, most books haven't put up.
Speaker 1: I've started list coming out. I thought Will Hill put
Speaker 1: him out. Westgate has them, but as soon as the
Speaker 1: sus books want to put up play A Futures, I'm
Speaker 1: excited to beat them. I am as well. Jason. We
Speaker 1: appreciate it, man, Thank you so much. Thanks for having me.
Speaker 1: I'll talk to you guys later. I love it. Jason
Speaker 1: wein garden. He gets me excited for baseball. He does
Speaker 1: um hit by pitchers get me excited too, but Jason
Speaker 1: gets be excited for all the bets as well. Yes, Jeffrey,
Speaker 1: I will say the one tweeter that did say that
Speaker 1: it is the best thing to happened to baseball in
Speaker 1: the cynical way, it actually really is. That was my
Speaker 1: because because you're you're spot on, because this is the
Speaker 1: most interested I've been in baseball in February. In February
Speaker 1: and maybe about I don't know, probably ten years at least.
Speaker 1: It's been a long time, and ten a long in
Speaker 1: ten years the February when we were all so interested
Speaker 1: in baseball. Um, baseball needs a spark. Not quite the
Speaker 1: spark they were looking for, but they got a weird
Speaker 1: sort of bizarro spark. Welcome back to a Numbers game
Speaker 1: with Jill Alexander. It was my guests the first ever
Speaker 1: Numbers Game episode. When Beeson started back in February of
Speaker 1: seen been on the podcast before the beating of the
Speaker 1: book podcast, of course, a legendary founder of Las Vegas
Speaker 1: Sports Consultants here in Las Vegas, legend of Las Vegas.
Speaker 1: I'm trying to make him feel uncomfortable. Lady, ladies and
Speaker 1: gentleman Roxy Roxborrow in studio. How you doing, Roxy, always
Speaker 1: the best dressed man in the sports book. That's how
Speaker 1: you can tell rocks low bars. Well, it is a
Speaker 1: low bar. Both things are true, though both things are No,
Speaker 1: you look great? How are you feeling feel good too? Yeah?
Speaker 1: Another year, another baseball season, just chugging along. Yeah, Is
Speaker 1: that the only thing you bet these days? Pretty much?
Speaker 1: In a soccer because really, yeah, it's a pretty efficient market.
Speaker 1: But um, there's no problem with limits, right, So I
Speaker 1: mean more or less you can bet, you know, unless
Speaker 1: you're Warren bobbed. You can bet whatever you want. Um,
Speaker 1: and then baseball because I love it, but you know,
Speaker 1: there are limits on baseball. And but there are ways
Speaker 1: to get down for pretty big numbers if you had
Speaker 1: a different places and come up with a creative waste
Speaker 1: of creative waste of bit? What do you what is
Speaker 1: your We were talking a little bit all fair here
Speaker 1: before you came on. UM. So it used to be
Speaker 1: that mid February, somewhere around Valentine's Day, the Atlantis in
Speaker 1: Reno would put out lines. They weren't widespread, they were
Speaker 1: just in one shop, and then Vegas would come out
Speaker 1: with him a couple of weeks later, and then was
Speaker 1: it CG that went a week earlier? I think one
Speaker 1: year at February seventh, and then last year was Caesar's
Speaker 1: in January, and then this year was William Hill in December.
Speaker 1: How do you like that? How that's go? Well? I
Speaker 1: like it because um, I don't need to see two
Speaker 1: sets of numbers to bet. But it costs caught so
Speaker 1: off guard that we were only done with about um
Speaker 1: six teams. It takes us about three hours to do
Speaker 1: a team, right, So we're doing two teams a day,
Speaker 1: figuring the odds will come out maybe after January January, right,
Speaker 1: And it caught us off guard. So I was going in,
Speaker 1: I was betting two games at a time. Come back,
Speaker 1: I was, you know, coming in every day and bet
Speaker 1: and stuff because we just didn't have the work done
Speaker 1: but usually when you go first, there's nobody else doing
Speaker 1: the work either. So it's not like people were beating
Speaker 1: us to numbers. I think maybe we lost one or
Speaker 1: two numbers, but you know most people weren't ready either.
Speaker 1: Well that was very interesting when you said that. First
Speaker 1: of all, you said cut us, so it's not just
Speaker 1: you and your partners partners, okay, And you said it
Speaker 1: takes about three hours to do every team. So you
Speaker 1: have so you have a a tried and true process
Speaker 1: that you go through very mechanically every year on this stuff.
Speaker 1: Well what happens. We can automate it, but then we
Speaker 1: go back and double check it by hand because usually
Speaker 1: we just have so much time, why not double check it?
Speaker 1: And when and when you double check all your work
Speaker 1: by hand, anyway, you get more familiar with it, you
Speaker 1: know it better. You're just not looking at a sheet
Speaker 1: of numbers, right right, But this year, uh yeah, it
Speaker 1: was totally different. So before before we get into your
Speaker 1: your actual baseball picks here, how how what is your
Speaker 1: because you're the guy to ask about something like this.
Speaker 1: Remember I called you the Marshall McCluin of this soul
Speaker 1: racket reference to uh to Annie Hall where Woody Allen
Speaker 1: uh is annoyed by people arguing in a in a
Speaker 1: movie line back when there used to be lines headed
Speaker 1: into movie theaters and Uh. He looked into the camera
Speaker 1: and said, if filily there was someone I could talk
Speaker 1: to to tell these people, And then he brings up
Speaker 1: media critic Marshall mcluin tells them off and looks at
Speaker 1: the camera says, if only life were like this in
Speaker 1: its very neurotic way. So you're the Marshall a clue
Speaker 1: to all this? So since legalization, Uh, any any sort
Speaker 1: of broad statements you can make in your reaction to
Speaker 1: how things have gone? Has anything surprised you? Has anything
Speaker 1: disappointed you? How have your worst fears come true? Roxy? Oh,
Speaker 1: I don't know. I never not really, I've always not
Speaker 1: my worst fears ever come true. I always knew there
Speaker 1: was some states that weren't. It was going to be
Speaker 1: small states who are political. Leg We're gonna go with
Speaker 1: a lot of reason. We're gonna have a high take
Speaker 1: out because the nature of all gambling is is political. Um,
Speaker 1: you go back, horse racing is probably the most political
Speaker 1: game of all time. You know, they have monopoly for
Speaker 1: a long time. I don't see anything. You know, I
Speaker 1: thought New Jersey did it the best, and uh, and
Speaker 1: I thought it was important that they go first because
Speaker 1: others could emulate them. Well nobody else is so is that? Yeah,
Speaker 1: there's that, which I'm a little disappointed, and I guess
Speaker 1: Colorado might be pretty good. Um. Also, it's not a
Speaker 1: it's not a godsend for for professional betters, which I
Speaker 1: sort of knew was coming because the market sports betting,
Speaker 1: the game is going to be to a lot of
Speaker 1: um many and micro bets and eventually it will be
Speaker 1: practically all in game. I haven't changed my mind on
Speaker 1: that it's going to be all in game betting that
Speaker 1: five G will facilitate with low latency and it will
Speaker 1: be just a series of micro bets. Uh, it'll have
Speaker 1: to be algorithm generated. Not only the prices will have
Speaker 1: to be algorithm generated, the movement the line will have
Speaker 1: to be algorithms generated because you can't hire enough staff
Speaker 1: to be looking at five thousand things you're offering, right.
Speaker 1: I really do think the bookmakers here now Nevad is
Speaker 1: in a unique situation and they still are taking large
Speaker 1: bets so with the counter, but eventually you won't be
Speaker 1: able to manage everything with guys looking at scueens over
Speaker 1: the counter a lot of if you're going to just
Speaker 1: keep offering bets and bets and props on every game,
Speaker 1: and props on every hockey game, and let's say you
Speaker 1: get up to a hundred props today on the NBA
Speaker 1: each individual NBA game, they won't be able to move
Speaker 1: these by hand. You know, it's the end game thing. Though,
Speaker 1: I've been very honest with the audience about this, is
Speaker 1: it makes for when you do a show two hours
Speaker 1: on sports betting every day, every weekday, it will become
Speaker 1: increasingly more difficult as time goes on, because more the
Speaker 1: percentage of in game will so outweigh pre flop bets
Speaker 1: that this will be of slightly different endeavor because we
Speaker 1: can talk about you know, we can handicap and analyze
Speaker 1: for as long as we want, but it's a different
Speaker 1: story to come back after the fact and be like, well,
Speaker 1: when I was in gaming yesterday, because you can't really
Speaker 1: do that while it's happening, and so people don't take
Speaker 1: again that as well as they do, you know, and
Speaker 1: understandably so pre flop analysis of stuff, that's that's a challenge, yes,
Speaker 1: because there's not enough time for a narrative on in
Speaker 1: game betting. Everywhere there's been in game betting at Dwarfed
Speaker 1: pregame betting, it's not even not it's not even close.
Speaker 1: Once people realize that there's no sense of urgency, it's
Speaker 1: not imperative to bet before kickoff or tip off or
Speaker 1: face off. Um, it changes the game totally, Yeah, it does.
Speaker 1: And uh again. I had a gentleman on uh when
Speaker 1: I was first doing my podcast a decade ago from
Speaker 1: the UK. He was one of the lead developers of
Speaker 1: the MICUs algorithm over there at Candor Technology, and he
Speaker 1: told me at that time he was like, it's you know,
Speaker 1: it's the handle in the UK. It will be like
Speaker 1: this in five years. I was like, easy on the five.
Speaker 1: But yes, I get the the overriding sentiment, do you
Speaker 1: want to brag about your baseball picks last last year?
Speaker 1: Can we start here? Well, I'll just say you keep
Speaker 1: plugging at this and uh, every year you have a
Speaker 1: dream year. This was your dream year. Yeah. My eleven
Speaker 1: to ten bets were six and two, and then I
Speaker 1: had which I gave out in this show, and then
Speaker 1: I gave out the Rays to win the wild Card
Speaker 1: game that was eight to one, and I gave you
Speaker 1: two mid season future book plays, which were the Nats
Speaker 1: to win the division that lost, but the Nats to
Speaker 1: win the Pennant which was twenty one and also one.
Speaker 1: So I basically had just those Those were all my bets.
Speaker 1: So I just just had one of those years. I mean,
Speaker 1: this is there, they are right there. Rox'll screen a
Speaker 1: piece of dot com the Visas. The only ones that
Speaker 1: didn't get there of the season win totals. Oh what
Speaker 1: this is? Uh? This is last year? Is the only
Speaker 1: ones that didn't get Rangers, the Mariners, and the Rangers. Right, Yeah,
Speaker 1: the Mariners over didn't get there. The Rangers under did
Speaker 1: not either. The Rangers really outperformed. Uh, they're they're underlying.
Speaker 1: But Diamondbacks, Phillies, Diamondbacks over, Phillies under, Blue Jays under
Speaker 1: White Sox under Marlin's under they all got there. And
Speaker 1: then as Roxy was just talking about, you had the
Speaker 1: Rays to win the wild Card game at eight to one. Now,
Speaker 1: are we're giving you full eight units on that or
Speaker 1: are we what are we doing with that? Well, it's
Speaker 1: gonna only give me four units. Sign it if you
Speaker 1: want what I was looking for, is a bet on
Speaker 1: the Rays to make the playoffs. And the Rays were
Speaker 1: consensus around town to sixty or two seventy to make
Speaker 1: the playoffs. So what I did is I made this
Speaker 1: bet instead because the only way they'd have to be
Speaker 1: in the wild card game. So I would chop that
Speaker 1: off for four units because it was a play for
Speaker 1: them to make the playoffs. So you can get creative,
Speaker 1: to get down more on what you want to get down.
Speaker 1: We'll talk about that a little later. And I believe
Speaker 1: I told you the Astros minus twenty four and a
Speaker 1: half against the Rangers as you couldn't possibly sweat it
Speaker 1: because but it would get there. They beat him by
Speaker 1: twenty nine games. Yeah, so that that's one you know,
Speaker 1: you can't possibly win. And there's two weeks to go,
Speaker 1: you know, Yeah, and then you have the Nationals. What
Speaker 1: you said to win the division didn't work out, but
Speaker 1: to win the Pennant obviously did. And I don't know
Speaker 1: if you know this, roxy they are World Series champions.
Speaker 1: They are, and the the World Series bet eluded me
Speaker 1: because um I didn't see the price. Now, one time
Speaker 1: they were sixty one in the irregular season, but it
Speaker 1: wasn't anything I saw and uh um when they were
Speaker 1: twenty to one to win the Pennant. I didn't I
Speaker 1: passed on forty to one to win the World Series
Speaker 1: because I didn't think if they got there they would
Speaker 1: have been favored. So yeah, hey, I'm not complaining. All right,
Speaker 1: so let's start. Roxy well says we have you here.
Speaker 1: Let's start. Obviously, people are like, all right, you got
Speaker 1: for this year. Let's go. Oh yeah, we should always
Speaker 1: talked about this year. You know, we were like, that's great,
Speaker 1: thanks for that wasn't No, that was last year. That
Speaker 1: was last year. But for this year, you have seven
Speaker 1: that you like, let's do them. You like to do
Speaker 1: them division by division. Um, now you're taking a pass
Speaker 1: on the American League East. None of those teams interest you? Yeah,
Speaker 1: I'm I don't have anything in it. Nothing in the
Speaker 1: reason I like to do it by divisions. By the way,
Speaker 1: you look, you're playing seventies six games inside your own
Speaker 1: UM division, right and so UM to me, it's correlator
Speaker 1: to mean when when you're doing that. So if you're
Speaker 1: going down and you your figures say, well you're like
Speaker 1: every team in or division over, uh, it's possible, but
Speaker 1: you're probably missing something somewhere. Not only that, the market
Speaker 1: is shaded to the over to begin with as well,
Speaker 1: So if you're the flurry of overs might not be
Speaker 1: the greatest uh maybe not. I've always I've always thought
Speaker 1: that was a little bit if Yeah, if you bet
Speaker 1: every under, you'd have a really small percentage. But remember,
Speaker 1: you don't have to make all thirty bets. You just
Speaker 1: have to make the ones that makes sense for you.
Speaker 1: All right, Should I feed these two or you want
Speaker 1: to start ahead? Feed him to me? All right? So
Speaker 1: we go to the Ale Central. This is a very
Speaker 1: in vogue club Roxy everybody for the second straight year,
Speaker 1: but especially this year. Everybody loves the Chicago White Sox.
Speaker 1: Not you, not you. I don't like the White Sox
Speaker 1: for a lot of reasons. Um, this has been a
Speaker 1: team that is probably been projected wrong by players and
Speaker 1: bookmakers for a long time. They've uh, they've gone under
Speaker 1: seven straight years, and there's only two teams that have
Speaker 1: ever had that streak of going under. That's not why
Speaker 1: I'm playing I'm under. I'm just because I don't believe
Speaker 1: so much in that historical uh numbers. But they've always
Speaker 1: been overrated. I think let's say this they won seventy
Speaker 1: two games last year. Now you're asking them to win six.
Speaker 1: So they pick up a lot of players. But if
Speaker 1: you could buy your way to uh four games over
Speaker 1: five hundred from winning seventy two games, everybody would do it.
Speaker 1: That's very true. I mean the Phillies tried to do
Speaker 1: it last year. Two. Yeah, you just can't on paper.
Speaker 1: If some of these players might add up to give
Speaker 1: you fourteen more games, and they do have some young
Speaker 1: players which will cut him a little slack for but
Speaker 1: I don't see it. This division also is better than
Speaker 1: last year. I have this division at about seven an
Speaker 1: average of seventy eight and a half winds were last
Speaker 1: year it was seventy five. So I also think divisions
Speaker 1: slightly better. It's not to push over it was last year.
Speaker 1: Well i'll tell you. I'll just sort of add on
Speaker 1: to that. They were seventy to win team in the
Speaker 1: standings last year through pythag Pythagoran theorem base run sixty nine,
Speaker 1: So maybe it's slightly less negligible now, but less than
Speaker 1: seventy two. One of the things on their in their lineup,
Speaker 1: So there's always a note on the line up there
Speaker 1: always knowing the pitching staff. And I'm curious how much
Speaker 1: of this you even factor in or if you just
Speaker 1: it's not part of your calculus. But they had they
Speaker 1: had like a third of their lineup had unbelievable batting
Speaker 1: averages on balls in play. So for those of us
Speaker 1: who love fan graphs, they had a real outlying thing
Speaker 1: with Johann Mulkata, Johann Mlcata, rather Tim Anderson and Lourie Garcia,
Speaker 1: who were all in like the top ten or fifteen
Speaker 1: of babbit guys, which is just a reflection of good
Speaker 1: fortune more than it is a skill set that you
Speaker 1: can repeat. Well, yes, and Fan actually Fan Graff isn't
Speaker 1: a team or a fan of this team either. This year. Um,
Speaker 1: what a way they have? Like, oh no, they haven't
Speaker 1: right there four and a half. But I haven't like
Speaker 1: base runs. I think they're significant during the year two
Speaker 1: when you're looking at futures and you're looking to dig
Speaker 1: your way out and props as a year agoes on.
Speaker 1: But I know the White Soxes, and I also have
Speaker 1: an over in this division, which is Kansas City, who
Speaker 1: won fifty nine games last year, but our projections come
Speaker 1: out to them about a seventy win team. This has
Speaker 1: been This has always been a Darling's projection through the years,
Speaker 1: either over or under. This is a very bold one
Speaker 1: for you, I thin a very bold Yeah, it is
Speaker 1: because I try to get away from making bad teams win.
Speaker 1: Usually it's true, not in the over nighters. I really
Speaker 1: believe that once the team starts to fall apart um,
Speaker 1: they just pack it in. I actually think this. You
Speaker 1: talk about rebuilds now, there's a difference between a rebuild
Speaker 1: and just a Tanka Paloosa. I actually think the Royals
Speaker 1: think they're turning the corner with some players, and I
Speaker 1: just think this will be a different Royals team this year.
Speaker 1: I don't see them as a team that's just looking
Speaker 1: for draft choices. I think they're going to try to
Speaker 1: put a fairly competitive team on and so we're asking
Speaker 1: them to win more than sixties six games, which goes
Speaker 1: against my m O, which you have known me for years. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I know you don't like doing that. It's because it's
Speaker 1: a it's a tough thing thing to live through on
Speaker 1: those bets. Like I remember once when I happened teams.
Speaker 1: I think with the Royals, what's interesting is and you
Speaker 1: always make this this assessment when you're talking about MLB
Speaker 1: season win totals is trade deadline. And with the Royals,
Speaker 1: if you look at their contracts, who would they trade
Speaker 1: at the trade deadline? Based on contracts? Maybe they're they're
Speaker 1: closer Ian Kennedy, but it's not like they're gonna They're
Speaker 1: not like with Maryfield because he's locked into a cheap contract.
Speaker 1: Uh so Layer is still locked in and so they
Speaker 1: probably will go with this group of players, you know,
Speaker 1: the White Sox and the Royals together when you go
Speaker 1: to the pictures, I think what's stark about both of
Speaker 1: these teams is you have to make the assessment, which
Speaker 1: you obviously know for many years before I have, is
Speaker 1: is their performance from one year sustainable to the next?
Speaker 1: In the case of the White Sox to the good.
Speaker 1: Is Lucas Giolito more likely to have his nineteen season
Speaker 1: or his horrific In the case of the Royals, are
Speaker 1: those guys like Jake Judas and bred brad Keller are
Speaker 1: they Can they possibly be as bad as they were?
Speaker 1: And the answer probably is no, Well we're hoping it's yes,
Speaker 1: that's the hoping. Yes. Okay, they did have a good
Speaker 1: bullpen last year, though, the Royals did. That's that's obviously
Speaker 1: something for for an over on the season winters. You
Speaker 1: want that to syve probably done bullpens better than anybody
Speaker 1: if you go back and look at the last ten years.
Speaker 1: Oh sure, the Royals, well they change the game when
Speaker 1: they won the World you know, that's the World Series
Speaker 1: they did. And they've also been good about um the
Speaker 1: acquisitions they've made for the pen, and I like the
Speaker 1: way they they moved their pen. I know new manager
Speaker 1: this year, but I don't see anything. Basically they've set
Speaker 1: the way they've set the standard for the way everybody
Speaker 1: uses their pen anyway. Yeah, of course, the you need
Speaker 1: numbers fifteen. They went to Herrera, Davis, Holland seven eight nine,
Speaker 1: which was their way of sort of backfitting the game.
Speaker 1: And the Royals were everybody tried to copy of the
Speaker 1: Roads were like, hey, look if we had a bigger payroll,
Speaker 1: we wouldn't have done this, but this is how we
Speaker 1: hacked the game. All right. More in the American League.
Speaker 1: We'll go to the American League West Texas Rangers. You
Speaker 1: have a call on there. I like them. Both under
Speaker 1: and the Astros are sort of an enigma. I think
Speaker 1: that the over under Rod would be higher than nine.
Speaker 1: But nobody knows what's gonna happen to the Astros this year.
Speaker 1: It's very true. I mean, we know they're gonna be
Speaker 1: under a lot of pressure. I mean, how much were
Speaker 1: they cheating last year is sort of important, sort of
Speaker 1: two thousand seventeen doesn't or doesn't make any difference. Two
Speaker 1: thousand seventies gone. Um, how much they cheat last year
Speaker 1: is what we really need to know. I want to
Speaker 1: you know, all this stuff always is in the price
Speaker 1: all the time. So when during the regular season, if
Speaker 1: you're betting every game, right that that's you know, they're
Speaker 1: winning at home all the time. That's sort of gonna
Speaker 1: be comes out in the wash. I I never worried
Speaker 1: about that too much. But we just don't know what's
Speaker 1: gonna happen with this team this year. The talent wise, oh,
Speaker 1: they're by far the best in division if you just
Speaker 1: add up the talent, so I think, but they're gonna
Speaker 1: they're they're team win anyway, Okay, and then the A's
Speaker 1: are the massive over for poor formers some years, right,
Speaker 1: Ny could easily win ninety games, and I think the
Speaker 1: Angels are a lot better team this year, they're gonna score.
Speaker 1: If they can find solve any pitching, they could be
Speaker 1: in there for a wild card and maybe you know,
Speaker 1: they're like, could be a seventy eight shows team win.
Speaker 1: So somebody's gotta lose. And Texas is a tough one
Speaker 1: because Texas one seventy eight last year and we bet
Speaker 1: them under seventy one. And now they've gone out and
Speaker 1: made good acquisitions. Their base runs worse seventy one last year,
Speaker 1: Yes they were, and I thought there's a regression factor
Speaker 1: for this year and they've they've done a good job
Speaker 1: of contracting that that regression with the players they they
Speaker 1: brought in. But somebody has to lose in that division.
Speaker 1: And New Ballpark or not. I think they're the ones
Speaker 1: that are going to go under seventy nine and a half,
Speaker 1: which you can get here. And the new ballpark is
Speaker 1: always very interesting because obviously from a traditional hitters park,
Speaker 1: uh that was the previous Global Life Park. Now it's
Speaker 1: Global Life Field. You now they have a retractable roof,
Speaker 1: so you never know. It's a tough projection, right because
Speaker 1: you don't know, first of all, are they can manipulate
Speaker 1: roof according to opponent, and that sort of thing. But
Speaker 1: does it harm their hitters? Does it enhance their pitching?
Speaker 1: I mean, because it works both ways. So it's very
Speaker 1: difficult to make that assessment. Well that's true. Um, you
Speaker 1: have the greatest minds and architects, steam arc texts in
Speaker 1: the world. I still can't figure out wind flows because
Speaker 1: it's a difficult business. You don't know what happened when
Speaker 1: wind flows get into certain buildings. You can see massive changes,
Speaker 1: like Yankee stadiums across the street. One was a launching
Speaker 1: pad right field and one wasn't. I mean, you end
Speaker 1: up with, uh, well, Cincinnati was supposed to be the
Speaker 1: ultimate neutral ballparks, totally wrong. So you just you just
Speaker 1: can't tell. I mean, the cops put in the big
Speaker 1: scoreboard in the back and change the wind flows a lot. Again,
Speaker 1: so you don't know until they play there. It'll be interesting.
Speaker 1: If you like the bed Over n Unders, you know,
Speaker 1: you really need to be be clued into those games and
Speaker 1: see early if there's something going on. And ROXY is
Speaker 1: being somewhat modest here because there is no one who
Speaker 1: figured out ballpark factor before you did. You were the
Speaker 1: guy who first exploited what we know today as ballpark factor.
Speaker 1: You as a better were the first one to be like,
Speaker 1: hey these things played differently. Yeah yeah, and so I
Speaker 1: then it figures then it follows that you have the
Speaker 1: Mariners under as well. I can't see any hope of
Speaker 1: the Mariners. They won sixty eight games last year, and
Speaker 1: remember they had that ridiculously fast start two There was
Speaker 1: guys thought they could be the the what the Mariner
Speaker 1: team that one d sixteen games and all that stuff?
Speaker 1: Is it like a lot of nonsense around but the
Speaker 1: thing is nine two the rest of the way. Yeah,
Speaker 1: So I mean, you know, where are they going to
Speaker 1: go from here? I don't think they're young players are
Speaker 1: that good. They have a lot of guys that should
Speaker 1: be better and aren't, and after a few years you
Speaker 1: just figure, okay, they're not going to be better. I
Speaker 1: just don't see where they go, you know. I mean,
Speaker 1: if they have anybody that somebody wants at the trade deadline,
Speaker 1: don't Well, people want Marco Gonzalez, but I don't. I
Speaker 1: don't think he's moving. He's there ace, let's put it
Speaker 1: that way. Yeah yeah, but I think he's a good
Speaker 1: picture to come out every you know, every fifth day.
Speaker 1: But there's not much behind that and I think this.
Speaker 1: You know that one time there was seventy two and
Speaker 1: a half on this number, and uh, but I'm saying
Speaker 1: right now at sixty six and a half here at
Speaker 1: the south point, you can go. You go under that one.
Speaker 1: You still go with ye. You can't wonder about the numbers.
Speaker 1: You've got a lot of people get prejudiced. So you
Speaker 1: go under an early number like seventy two and a
Speaker 1: half and seventy one and a half and seventy and
Speaker 1: a half, and then it's up sixty nine and a
Speaker 1: half and you say, I can't go under sixty nine
Speaker 1: a half. Already went under seventy two and a half.
Speaker 1: That's irrelevant. It is what it is the day you're
Speaker 1: looking at it. And if you've never seen that seventy
Speaker 1: two and a half, you thought sixty nine and a
Speaker 1: half was a good bet under, you make that bet
Speaker 1: and you just keep betting it unto you don't think
Speaker 1: there's anything in it. Whereas a wisdom roxy Roxboro, So
Speaker 1: the American League picks White Sox under Royal's over, and
Speaker 1: then both the Rangers and the Mariners under in the
Speaker 1: American League West, we will do his three National League
Speaker 1: season win totals. Coming right back on a numbers game
Speaker 1: at Visa these Sports Betting Network. Welcome back to a
Speaker 1: numbers game with Jill Alexander. Okay, I'll try not to
Speaker 1: interrupt as much on this so we can, so we
Speaker 1: can get through all these You've got three more in
Speaker 1: the National League again, you're taking a pass on the
Speaker 1: n L East. Nothing there. Now, if you're a better
Speaker 1: um that wants a better division with the futures opinion,
Speaker 1: that would that was a good one to do it.
Speaker 1: But I just don't see anything in it. You have
Speaker 1: a future's opinion in at least, actually you don't. The
Speaker 1: just saying thing. I'll just say the Marlins are a
Speaker 1: team that's going to be better this year. The problem
Speaker 1: is the four teams ahead of them are all trying
Speaker 1: to be better too, and uh, it's really tough for them.
Speaker 1: If if they won seventy games, it wouldn't surprise me.
Speaker 1: But basically the other it's an arms war in that division.
Speaker 1: So alright, and L Central, you're going a little bit
Speaker 1: against the grain here in terms of going against the
Speaker 1: solid organization you like the Cardinals under. Now, this probably
Speaker 1: would be my best play um. The Cardinal Cardinals projected
Speaker 1: around two wins. I really don't like teams that don't
Speaker 1: do anything during the off season, and this team, not
Speaker 1: only have they not done anything, there's talk that uh
Speaker 1: Nolan will be on the block at the All Star break.
Speaker 1: I just don't see the pitching looks disastrous to me. Um,
Speaker 1: they won seventy one games last year. I don't see
Speaker 1: how they get back to that. Uh. And then if
Speaker 1: you get the kicker, if Nolan leaves, UH, they're probably
Speaker 1: in free fall. Cardinals won games last year. Yeah, hold on,
Speaker 1: I'm getting confused with the team with the with the Rockies. No,
Speaker 1: but but the Rockies or team didn't make another change too.
Speaker 1: So basically my my theory here as teams that don't
Speaker 1: make changes. I don't like them. Rockies didn't do anything. Really,
Speaker 1: Cardinals didn't do anything, So I don't I don't like
Speaker 1: teams that don't do anything, and I don't see how
Speaker 1: they can get better. I thought the number was too high.
Speaker 1: It's competitive division. The Reds for the first time. The
Speaker 1: Reds are, by the way, a team that's also gone
Speaker 1: gone under seven years in a row, and and I've
Speaker 1: been trying to make them go over a few times
Speaker 1: if I passed, this time passed, Okay, so it clarifying
Speaker 1: Cardinals under Cardinals under, uh, that is your best play
Speaker 1: Cardinals under I would say so all right. And Rockies
Speaker 1: since we got to the n L West, we'll start
Speaker 1: to get the Rockies unders. For the same reason. They
Speaker 1: do absolutely nothing. They have that problem with third baseman
Speaker 1: and um tried to trade Aeronauto this officer, I think
Speaker 1: you'll be on the block. Well, they've already said he'll
Speaker 1: be on the block before the trade deadline. I just
Speaker 1: don't see how they get better. And I think it's
Speaker 1: a hard, long season for them. They have a responsibility
Speaker 1: probably to make a better team because they have the
Speaker 1: fifth largest attendant, so they have people that come to
Speaker 1: the games, and they have spent a lot of money
Speaker 1: through the years and they just haven't gotten anything from it. Really.
Speaker 1: Um So I see the bottom falling out on them.
Speaker 1: Such a tough ballpark. It's it's it's it's hard on them.
Speaker 1: The other thing is, um uh, outside of playing the Giants,
Speaker 1: they're gonna have a hard time. I think Arizona is
Speaker 1: a little better, in San Diego's better, and the Dodgers
Speaker 1: or the Dodgers probably the greatest hunder and sixty two
Speaker 1: game team ever constructed. I would agree with that. Actually, yeah,
Speaker 1: all right, there's one more though, so under on the Cardinals,
Speaker 1: under on the Rockies. You do like the Padres over? Yes,
Speaker 1: this is um boy. I wish they weren't on TV
Speaker 1: out here because this is gonna be a hard one
Speaker 1: to sweat. This projection is a little different. As much
Speaker 1: as I like teams trying to buy their way to
Speaker 1: get better, this is the team that actually has the
Speaker 1: players on the team right now to get better. I
Speaker 1: don't think we saw the best of them last year
Speaker 1: between a lot of injuries and a young a lot
Speaker 1: of young players trying to play the game. So I
Speaker 1: don't think we saw the best of them last year.
Speaker 1: This is gonna be a struggle to get over this
Speaker 1: eighty three. But my numbers came up seven, and that's
Speaker 1: that's a big gap between what you can bet over
Speaker 1: and what they are. I'm laughing because I can tell
Speaker 1: how much you hate you hate liking the over here.
Speaker 1: I just don't. But it's a bat and I'm on it.
Speaker 1: And then as a bonus play, I'm gonna get out.
Speaker 1: Bonus play is because I like Kansas City. I don't
Speaker 1: like the Cardinals, so there's a matchup at Westgate where
Speaker 1: I'm taking Kansas City plus twenty games against the cards.
Speaker 1: So to me, that's also another way to get more
Speaker 1: money on the on the two teams. I like. There
Speaker 1: you go, creative ways of doing it, and you said
Speaker 1: you're gonna talk about that, So that's that's an example
Speaker 1: of that. Find derivative markets, find other creative props where
Speaker 1: you can creatively figure out a way to essentially the
Speaker 1: same correlated handicap get more money down on your conviction. Yeah,
Speaker 1: because eventually you're gonna the numbers. You keep betting under
Speaker 1: a rover, and the numbers keep moving, and eventually you're
Speaker 1: gonna lose value on every bet where the line moves,
Speaker 1: you're gonna lose some value. And the question is when
Speaker 1: is it time to stop? Okay, And then when you've
Speaker 1: decided you don't want to bet anymore, you have to
Speaker 1: look for some creative ways. Teams to make the playoffs,
Speaker 1: for example, might be one or you know, because you
Speaker 1: can bet against them to make the playoffs and and
Speaker 1: the matchup bets or another. The problem with the futures
Speaker 1: now is the league so bifurcated that you just have
Speaker 1: all the low priced teams looked like they ought to
Speaker 1: be low priced teams, and there's not a high enough
Speaker 1: price on any of the long shots for be that
Speaker 1: are compelling. Excellent use of bifurcated roxy. That's my favorite part,
Speaker 1: So Horrey, the haves and the have nots, and there
Speaker 1: really is like I used to in my manifesto Baseball manifesto,
Speaker 1: which I'll put out here in the next couple of weeks,
Speaker 1: uh three and oh last year over Dodgers, under Rockies,
Speaker 1: under Orioles, and they were pretty much all cruise jobs.
Speaker 1: But there were one of the things that I used
Speaker 1: to do in there was put up futures place. There's
Speaker 1: just nothing to do anymore. Really, Yeah, yeah, it's not
Speaker 1: it's not nearly. Uh, there's there's no point to it
Speaker 1: before the season. Oftentimes you can get better rods on
Speaker 1: it as the season goes in, you can. I would say,
Speaker 1: if you had an opinion in the National League East,
Speaker 1: that would be the one you could attack for future
Speaker 1: books Division Pennant World Series, because there's four teams in
Speaker 1: there with a chance. You have to sort of think
Speaker 1: that the wild cards are coming out of that that division.
Speaker 1: All right, See if I get any player thoughts, I'm
Speaker 1: gonna put Roxy on the spot here. Coming back after
Speaker 1: the break, we'll wrap it up, we'll recap all his plays.
Speaker 1: Roxy Roxborough, the legendary kind enough to join us right
Speaker 1: here at Visa the Sports Betting Network. Keep it right
Speaker 1: here for more of a numbers game with Bill Alexander.
Speaker 1: Her Welcome back to a numbers game with Gil Alexander.
Speaker 1: All Right, Roxy's season win totals and none of these
Speaker 1: currently are that far off from where you bet them.
Speaker 1: You Actually we actually set aside ones that were far
Speaker 1: off the number that you got him at. Yes, I
Speaker 1: just give out the games and the prices that you
Speaker 1: can get. Now, it's truly dist genuine for people to
Speaker 1: come on these shows and say, well I got four
Speaker 1: and a half and it's seven and a half or
Speaker 1: something like that. I mean, you have to give out
Speaker 1: something that people can bet, right, Yes, it don't, we
Speaker 1: know it. The reason most of the armors are the
Speaker 1: way they are now is because I bet them into
Speaker 1: that physician. So I mean I gave out the ones
Speaker 1: that if I woke up today I'd still bet them,
Speaker 1: and those are once again the White Sox, Rangers, Mariners, Cardinals,
Speaker 1: and Rockies under the Royals and the Padres over you
Speaker 1: you were sharing a story off air for those who
Speaker 1: love baseball. I think it's a great story. Well it is.
Speaker 1: I have a Baseball Hall of Fame pen on today.
Speaker 1: And when it opened in Cooper's Town, my mother was there.
Speaker 1: She was thirteen years old. Um. She scored the game.
Speaker 1: She got a scorecard and scored the exhibition game, which
Speaker 1: is a bunch of retired All stars against another bunch
Speaker 1: of retired All stars who went six innings. Uh. She
Speaker 1: snapped photos when she was there. She's still with us.
Speaker 1: The she sent the program to the Baseball Hall of Fame.
Speaker 1: They loved it, and they asked her what she liked
Speaker 1: to come for a V I P tour with some guests.
Speaker 1: So we had a family reunion last year in Cooperstown
Speaker 1: and they treated us so well. And my mother's uh
Speaker 1: ninety three and a half now, and she's really sharp
Speaker 1: and um, and she loved baseball all her life and
Speaker 1: that's probably why the interest from me and my my
Speaker 1: two brothers UM. Plus her father was of course the
Speaker 1: one that uh took her and his chief bender was
Speaker 1: his favorite player. My mother's favorite player was Jimmy Fox.
Speaker 1: So her mom is four. They think she's one of
Speaker 1: the only people from that ceremony that was alive. I mean,
Speaker 1: they could remember it right, And she has documentation because
Speaker 1: as photos she's going to donate. Also, how did she
Speaker 1: feel about the way your career went? Was? She was?
Speaker 1: She just ridiculously proud of you. Now that's why I ask.
Speaker 1: I mean, she's like, what are you doing? I mean,
Speaker 1: my dad went to Dart with the Harvard n b A.
Speaker 1: I don't think that they really thought going to Las
Speaker 1: Vegas was the best use of my talents. They used
Speaker 1: to said they had their oldest son worked out West
Speaker 1: and I after it at that. Of course, then one
Speaker 1: night I got on with Dan Rather on the CBS
Speaker 1: Evening News for some type of interview, and then all
Speaker 1: of a sudden, her friends started calling her that was
Speaker 1: your son, that was your son. Oh yes, she's rather
Speaker 1: prominent figure in Las Vegas. That was a game changer,
Speaker 1: and the mother son relationship changed from that point. It's
Speaker 1: very similar. You know. I always joke on the air
Speaker 1: too that my parents are immigrants. They always wanted a
Speaker 1: doctor and a lawyer, and my brother, my only sibling.
Speaker 1: He became a doctor and just like you just said that,
Speaker 1: they go and the other one we don't really understand
Speaker 1: what he does, really get it. I'm glad that worked
Speaker 1: out for your dad rather had you onto that that
Speaker 1: uh confirmed to your mom that you were doing something
Speaker 1: good or at least prominent. Anyway, Um, that's a great
Speaker 1: that's awesome. That's a great story. So you you went
Speaker 1: to cover that. Do you attribute though, not only your fandom,
Speaker 1: but do you attribute You said, your mom's as sharp
Speaker 1: as ever. How you ended up so much of that
Speaker 1: is from your mom, you think, Oh, there's no question
Speaker 1: about it. We used to get an updated version of
Speaker 1: the Baseball Encyclopaedia every year when we were kids, and
Speaker 1: we used to have trivi your question to look up
Speaker 1: all the old players. Yeah, thank you, Roxy, I appreciate
Speaker 1: it as always my pleasure. Uh. May your season win
Speaker 1: totals go as well. But we just thank you for
Speaker 1: being here. The great Roxy Rox Burrow on a numbers
Speaker 1: game at Vicent the Sports Betting Network