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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast podcasts. If you are even remotely

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Speaker 1: a savage, you'll run these people over a second. Hello,

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Speaker 1: I'm opening the Action Network podcast UFC Betting Preview. I'm

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Speaker 1: Sean Zerrilla, joined today by Billy Ward to help you

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Speaker 1: break down a fourteen fight card for UFC London. Keep

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Speaker 1: our best bets, favorite underdogs, top props and more. If

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Speaker 1: you'd like to tell some of the bets that we

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Speaker 1: discussed on today's show, make sure to find the quip

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Speaker 1: slit links both in the podcast and video description or

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Speaker 1: Action network dot com slash bet now fourteen fight card

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Speaker 1: As of now, I feel like I say that every

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Speaker 1: week because we keep losing one. But we are recording

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Speaker 1: this prior Toway. Its fourteen fight card. Prelim scheduled for

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Speaker 1: one pm Eastern, main card at five pm Eastern because

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Speaker 1: we're in the O two Arena in London, England. So

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Speaker 1: make sure you get those bets in on Saturday night

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Speaker 1: because these fights will be starting right about the time

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Speaker 1: that the tournament NCAA tournament games start on Saturday. You

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Speaker 1: will get distracted, you will forget to get the bets in.

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Speaker 1: To make sure you get them in on Friday night,

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Speaker 1: our main event, a featherweight potential title eliminator between Mosar

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Speaker 1: A Vloyev minus two fifty and Larone Murphy at plus

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Speaker 1: two of five of Loyev the number one featherweight contender,

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Speaker 1: Murphy at the number three contender, but combining, these guys

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Speaker 1: are seventeen to oh and one of the promotion, both unbeaten,

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Speaker 1: both un beaten in their professional careers, both of nine

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Speaker 1: UFC wins. Murphy had a draw in his UFC debut.

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Speaker 1: Very good fight here, both extremely well rounded. Murphy is

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Speaker 1: the slightly better striker by the numbers, particularly out landing

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Speaker 1: opponents by two point four strikes per minute of Voyev

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Speaker 1: one point four his differential. Avoyev does the better control rate,

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Speaker 1: and he is the more proactive grappler, spent eighty one

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Speaker 1: percent of his grappling time and control positions just fifty

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Speaker 1: seven percent for Lamaron Murphy. A Voyev also averages six

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Speaker 1: point two takedown attempts for five minutes a distance, and

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Speaker 1: he's completed sixty one percent of those attempts, which is

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Speaker 1: a very high rate. He has been off though for

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Speaker 1: fifteen months, hasn't competed since late twenty twenty four. Murphy

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Speaker 1: has fought six times in the past three years. A

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Speaker 1: Voyev fought just three times, and also a Voyev pulled

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Speaker 1: out of a fight with Aaron Pico, they rescheduled it,

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Speaker 1: he ended up pulling out. Murphy ended up taking the

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Speaker 1: fight and ended up knocking p Goo out. So a

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Speaker 1: voy of maybe dealing with some injuries outside of the octagon.

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Speaker 1: He's pulled out of a number of fights in the

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Speaker 1: past few years. Scheduled fight with Bryce Mitchell ended up

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Speaker 1: falling through this fight. Does you know, in my opinion,

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Speaker 1: come down to whether or not he's able to get

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Speaker 1: that top time and particularly early. I did put in

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Speaker 1: my breakdown that you might be able to come into

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Speaker 1: this fight and potentially bet Murphy. You know, if he's

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Speaker 1: able to deny the first couple of takedown attempts, that

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Speaker 1: he's able to deny the grappling, keep this fight standing,

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Speaker 1: you may still be able to get plus money on

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Speaker 1: him live during round one, or I'd imagined he would

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Speaker 1: be able to get plus money, but you could probably

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Speaker 1: still get a pretty good price live during round one

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Speaker 1: if he shows that he's able to shuck off the

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Speaker 1: takedown attempts, or if he does get taken down then

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Speaker 1: he's able to scramble back to his feet against the Voyev.

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Speaker 1: Worth noting the takedown prop for a Voyev and this

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Speaker 1: fight is used to go to a decision, it's about

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Speaker 1: minus two to fifty. A Voyev's takedown prop is five

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Speaker 1: and a half chused to the over. At a Sharper book,

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Speaker 1: it is actually six and a half juice to the over.

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Speaker 1: So across a twenty five minute fight, books expecting that

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Speaker 1: he will get at least one takedown per round, probably

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Speaker 1: even more than that. It's just a matter of how

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Speaker 1: much top time and how much damage he's able to

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Speaker 1: do from those positions, how many submission attempts he's potentially

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Speaker 1: able to put on. Laron Murphy, I actually think the

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Speaker 1: opponents he's fought of Voyev, he's kind of He's gotten

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Speaker 1: a decision in all of his wins. I think he's

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Speaker 1: actually gotten a little bit unlucky in terms of not

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Speaker 1: finishing fights, particularly the Dan Egay fight. He put a

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Speaker 1: ton of damage on Degay, ended up getting a ten

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Speaker 1: eight third round. I think other opponents would have folded

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Speaker 1: to that damage. He's a pretty dynamic striker in his

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Speaker 1: own right knees, elbows, I mean he'll mix it up

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Speaker 1: just like Corone does. I think Corona is just the

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Speaker 1: faster man and the more efficient guy on the feet.

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Speaker 1: If a Voyev is able to get the grappling going,

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Speaker 1: I think he will be the side. But the last

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Speaker 1: thing to point out is close in competitive rounds, the

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Speaker 1: judges may give deference to the hometown fighter, the Englishman

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Speaker 1: in London, and Evloyev is going to have to win

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Speaker 1: his rounds definitively if he's going to cover his price

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Speaker 1: tag at minus two fifty. Now, I do project slight

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Speaker 1: value on him as a favorite, but I probably prefer

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Speaker 1: and I project value on him his favorite. I project

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Speaker 1: value on the fight to go to decision. As a result,

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Speaker 1: I show correlated value on Avoyev to win by decision.

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Speaker 1: I make that line about minus one forty. It is

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Speaker 1: minus one forty. It's several books. There are some books

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Speaker 1: though offering you minus one fifteen. So I think you

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Speaker 1: know the fact that I projected there, the fact that

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Speaker 1: some books are offering you exactly that number, and other

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Speaker 1: books are saying, hey, we'll give you minus one fifteen instead.

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Speaker 1: I would probably go ahead and take those minus one fifteen's.

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Speaker 1: I think this one is going to go to a decision.

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Speaker 1: They're both shown they're incredibly durable throughout their careers. I

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Speaker 1: think maybe Cardio in the late stages for a Voyev

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Speaker 1: could potentially be what gets him finished because we haven't

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Speaker 1: exten him extend out to five rounds. We have seen

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Speaker 1: Murphy extend out twice to five rounds. But all that

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Speaker 1: is to say, I think if Vloyev by decision a

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Speaker 1: better bet than his money line, and I think Murphy

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Speaker 1: by KO maybe a better bet than his money line.

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Speaker 1: But I would not argue against taking the underdog odds.

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Speaker 1: So if Voyev by decision at minus one fifteen the way,

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Speaker 1: I'm probably betting this fight. But I think you ken,

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Speaker 1: as I said, look for a live price on Murphy

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Speaker 1: depending on how the early grappling goes. Billy, you're going

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Speaker 1: to take an underdog shot here. I'm curious where you

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Speaker 1: like the price down to. Both of these guys, as

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Speaker 1: I said, have gone to decision a number of times.

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Speaker 1: I think it's fifteen combined decisions across their combined to

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Speaker 1: UFC bouts. So where do you have Murphy in terms of,

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Speaker 1: you know, where do you project him out in your mind?

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Speaker 1: In terms of a price, where do you like him

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Speaker 1: down to, and then any other bets you see for

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Speaker 1: this fight, live angles or props, And how do you

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Speaker 1: give the winning method for Murphy? Do you think it's

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Speaker 1: coming by decision?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm glad you mentioned the live stuff on Murphy

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Speaker 2: in my luck ratings this week. I said, I'm taking

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Speaker 2: about half a unit on Murphy and saving the other

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Speaker 2: bit for a live angle. And that's for a couple

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Speaker 2: of reasons. I mean, one you pointed out he's got

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Speaker 2: a better five round experience. He's also more efficient, which

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Speaker 2: I believe you said, especially on the feed. And you know,

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Speaker 2: Avoyev is the exact kind of guy that, unless you

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Speaker 2: have Morob Cardio, you kind of don't trust an extended

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Speaker 2: period because he has to work so hard for what

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Speaker 2: he gets. Where Murphy can be a little bit calmer

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Speaker 2: weight at range, snipe with some shots, use his size

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Speaker 2: and strength edge to kind of control the action without

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Speaker 2: over extending himself, where a Voyev is going to be

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Speaker 2: hitting crazy scrambles and diving for legs, which is all

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Speaker 2: really hard to do, and that's just a harder thing

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Speaker 2: to keep up over five rounds. If he wins the

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Speaker 2: first three of them, it might not matter. It also

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Speaker 2: wouldn't shock me if I saw like a late Murphy knockout,

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Speaker 2: as you alluded to. In a weird way, this is

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Speaker 2: Kamara Usman versus Lyon Edwards, with Murphy playing the role

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Speaker 2: of Leon Edwards stylistically. I've thought Murphy reminds me a

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Speaker 2: lot of Leon Edwards at his best. In general, you know,

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Speaker 2: tall long guys for the division, good defensive grappling, good

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Speaker 2: fence grappling, not great takedown defense, especially Murphy, but he

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Speaker 2: doesn't get held down. Pico took him down twice, only

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Speaker 2: got a couple minutes of control time.

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Speaker 3: I think Josh.

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Speaker 2: Emmett landed four takedowns in that five round fight and

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Speaker 2: three point thirty nine of control time. So the over

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Speaker 2: props on takedowns for Ev Looev makes a lot of

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Speaker 2: sense because of that if Murphy's good at getting up,

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Speaker 2: But it also means hous mobs are going to win

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Speaker 2: the rounds, especially in London, when Murphy just needs to

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Speaker 2: land one or two big punches to at least in

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Speaker 2: the judge's minds, counteract those takedowns that are going to

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Speaker 2: be not I don't think come with it ton of

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Speaker 2: damage He also doesn't attempt to a lot of takedowns. In

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Speaker 2: his whole UFC career, Movsar has two officially credited take

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Speaker 2: submission attempts, both came against Takim de Wudo in some

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Speaker 2: random fight. Not attempted a single submission outside of that,

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Speaker 2: so not gonna win any rounds that way either. It's

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Speaker 2: been interesting on the price. I got plus two to

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Speaker 2: fifteen Sunday Night on Murphy looked like I immediately got

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Speaker 2: some CLV and then it bounced right back to where

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Speaker 2: it was. I think I'd be comfortable with Murphy down

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Speaker 2: to like plus one eighty plus one ninety somewhere in

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Speaker 2: that range. Beyond that, you know, the four or five

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Speaker 2: decision prop or paired with the over two and a

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Speaker 2: half something like that, I think is the better bet,

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Speaker 2: as well as the live stuff you said. I could

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Speaker 2: see a decision or a late knockout for him. I

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Speaker 2: don't expect Murphy to just kill him out of the gate,

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Speaker 2: but we didn't expect him to do that Aaron Pico,

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Speaker 2: and he did, so I'm trying not to get too

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Speaker 2: heavy into the method of victory when I'm getting a

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Speaker 2: good price on Murphy.

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Speaker 3: Just straight out.

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Speaker 1: A couple more things I want your thoughts on before

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Speaker 1: we move off of this fight. The first is the

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Speaker 1: among the four props, a voye of over five and

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Speaker 1: a half takedowns minus one thirty I believe Murphy over

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Speaker 1: a half a takedown I saw between plus one twenty

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Speaker 1: and plus one sixty Murphy. I think the over under

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Speaker 1: was about seventy five seventy six and a half strikes,

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Speaker 1: and a Voyev's over under for strikes was around fifty

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Speaker 1: five and a half. You don't have to be any

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Speaker 1: of those, not saying there's necessarily value in any of those,

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Speaker 1: but if you had to pick one of those, which

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Speaker 1: one you going with?

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Speaker 2: Probably the over for strikes on a Voyev, because I

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Speaker 2: mean their actual strikes landed is pretty similar if you

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Speaker 2: look at them statistically. That's a huge you know, it

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Speaker 2: comes with a grain of salt because a Voyev gets

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Speaker 2: a lot of those on the ground. I would want

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Speaker 2: to if in some places offer this and some don't

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Speaker 2: go for total strikes on a boy of rather than

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Speaker 2: significant strikes, because a lot of those are going to

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Speaker 2: be on the ground where the official scorekeeper has some

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Speaker 2: leeway on how to score those. Usually those numbers are

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Speaker 2: extremely close. Like most fights, they only call like five

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Speaker 2: or six shots is insignificant for lack of a better term.

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Speaker 2: But if you can find books that offers that, then

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Speaker 2: they charge you a you know, five to ten strike premium.

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Speaker 3: I would go with that.

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Speaker 2: Just I don't know if it's like the NBA, where

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Speaker 2: the hometown team, so to speak, has the scorekeepers who

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Speaker 2: could make deam strikes as significant or not. Probably not,

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Speaker 2: but anything like that would have make concern that he'd

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Speaker 2: give some bitter bat shots on the ground that don't

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Speaker 2: get scored the way we need him to.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think it's an independent third party that end

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Speaker 1: up scoring them, and I think it's a UFC employee.

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Speaker 1: I don't think it is a local official. I think

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Speaker 1: it is like fight Metric or an independent contractor that

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Speaker 1: ends up providing the official stats and data for UFC.

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Speaker 1: So it should there should be some consistency from one

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Speaker 1: region to the next. It's not like the judges of

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Speaker 1: access to the stats or anything, so, you know, skewing

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Speaker 1: the data, fluffing up the talent fighters stats doesn't necessarily

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Speaker 1: end up paying off. It's not like when you're watching

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Speaker 1: a hockey game and the home scorekeeper is given the

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Speaker 1: goalie a few extra shots on goal to make a

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Speaker 1: safe percentage a little bit better. So yeah, the judges

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Speaker 1: don't actually see the stats. There's no incentive necessarily to

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Speaker 1: change significant strikes to just regular strikes or what have you.

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Speaker 1: I do want to get your thoughts as well. Really,

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Speaker 1: this fight is minus two fifty to go to a decision,

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Speaker 1: but it is the main event, So from a DFS

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Speaker 1: perspective on a fourteen fight card, though you do like

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Speaker 1: the underdog, and I imagine you will have wilver own

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Speaker 1: Murphy in some places, what are you doing with a

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Speaker 1: voyev and what are you doing with this fight in general?

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Speaker 1: When you have a main event that is likely to

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Speaker 1: end in a decision and not necessarily be a one

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Speaker 1: hundred plus significant strike on either side decision? Is it

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Speaker 1: a fight that you generally try to go against from

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Speaker 1: a DFS perspective because you have so many other options.

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Speaker 1: You have twenty six other fighters you can choose from

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Speaker 1: up and down the card. So what's your general strategy

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Speaker 1: when you have a main event like this on a

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Speaker 1: big card, but the main event is heavily lined to

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Speaker 1: go to a decision.

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Speaker 2: This one's tricky because I'm on the underdog, and there's

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Speaker 2: a lot of ways for Murphy to win this out

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Speaker 2: scoring a lot of points, which means I will have

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Speaker 2: more lineups without either main event fighter than I normally would.

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Speaker 2: We have as a massive ceiling though, right Like, there's

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Speaker 2: a case here where he gets double digit takedowns because

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Speaker 2: Murphy keeps getting up, so I will definitely have some

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Speaker 2: avoiev in GPPs. In cash games, I'm definitely stacking this one.

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Speaker 2: I mean, if I think the underdog's gonna win, he's

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Speaker 2: super cheap, and the underdog could win while the favorite

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Speaker 2: still lands eight takedowns or whatever. There could just be

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Speaker 2: a ton of total points in a way that doesn't

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Speaker 2: It's not skewed to one fighter enough to win a GPP,

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Speaker 2: but it keeps doing cash contention, So probably how I'll

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Speaker 2: approach it again with fourteen fights. As you pointed out,

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Speaker 2: I don't think this is as high as a priority

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Speaker 2: as the main event usually is historically, at least based

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Speaker 2: on the data I cap like eighty five eighty eight

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Speaker 2: percent of the time at least one of the two

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Speaker 2: five round fighters makes the optimal lineup. Though, so like

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Speaker 2: my general starting point is every lineup is going to

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Speaker 2: have one or the other of these guys, and there

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Speaker 2: needs to be a reason to shake me off that

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Speaker 2: which this one kind of does provide.

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Speaker 1: It's gone to a fight of the night. The comine

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Speaker 1: event between Luke Riley the Englishman and Michael Aswell, an American.

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Speaker 1: Riley about minus two thirty five as well plus one

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Speaker 1: ninety five is the fight in the featherweight division. Either

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Speaker 1: guys a ton of USC experience, just one fight a

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Speaker 1: win over Bogga Grad for Riley as well. I believe

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Speaker 1: one and two in the UFC, but is coming off

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Speaker 1: of a win. Riley, the former Cage Warriors champion, is

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Speaker 1: a training parter of Patty PIMBLET lost round one in

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Speaker 1: that fight against Grab but ended up coming out and

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Speaker 1: getting the knockout in round two. Does seem like he's grappleable.

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Speaker 1: I don't rest necessarily think Aswell is going to do that,

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Speaker 1: though he seems like more of a boxer himself, and

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Speaker 1: I think we could get a competitive shriking fight here.

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Speaker 1: But as a result of seeing both guys potentially swinging,

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Speaker 1: I do show value on the fight to end inside

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Speaker 1: the distance. I make that line about minus one twenty

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Speaker 1: five to end inside the distance and you can get

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Speaker 1: even money. So would take that up to about minus

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Speaker 1: one ten a, make Riley to win inside the distance

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Speaker 1: about plus one sixty five, and I think get as

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Speaker 1: high as plus two twenty on that prop as well,

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Speaker 1: which you were giving out, Billy, you're gonna go with

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Speaker 1: Riley inside the distance and then also his round two

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Speaker 1: and round three props I believe as well, which means

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Speaker 1: you probably like him as a live bet after round

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Speaker 1: one on top of those tickets. So we're in agreement here.

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Speaker 1: I like the fighten inside the distance. I show rally

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Speaker 1: on Riley to and Riley to win inside the distance.

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Speaker 1: I'll probably just end up having some of the under

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Speaker 1: or NZITV though. So what did you see in this fight?

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Speaker 1: How'd you land on Riley and give me your full

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Speaker 1: betting approach trip.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, before I jump all the way into it. Do

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Speaker 2: you remember the circumstances of Michael Aswell's one UFC winch on?

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Speaker 2: There was a U doubt scenario. It was the fight

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Speaker 2: against Lucas Almeida, where like three days before the fight

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Speaker 2: there's a ton of pictures of Almeida's hand being clearly broken.

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Speaker 3: Oh yes, that was as well as one.

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Speaker 2: I didn't remember either until I was researching for my

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Speaker 2: full preview, and as well did an interview where he's like, yeah,

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Speaker 2: I saw it, everybody saw it. I new he wasn't

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Speaker 2: throwing the right hand, and even during the finish as

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Speaker 2: well has him down in his ground and pounding him,

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Speaker 2: and Almeida is like not using his right hand to

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Speaker 2: defend himself while it's happening, which is to say that's

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Speaker 2: not He could very well be winless in the UFC

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Speaker 2: against a less compromise Lucas Almeida. With that said, and

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Speaker 2: the Contender Series he lost a close split decision two

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Speaker 2: bogged In Grad who Luke Riley just beat so as

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Speaker 2: well as just a really tough guy to line His

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Speaker 2: other loss in the UFC proper was on short notice

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Speaker 2: and up a weight class to Bloggioki. So he has

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Speaker 2: three fights and like none of them he was definitively

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Speaker 2: better or worse than his opponent, which makes it tricky,

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Speaker 2: but breaking down the styles of both guys, kind of

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Speaker 2: a pure boxer has not attempted a single takedown in

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Speaker 2: any three of those fights. Luke Riley just a much

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Speaker 2: more well rounded striker. He's you know trains out of Liverpool.

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Speaker 2: He almost has the city kickboxing style where he does

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Speaker 2: a lot of fainting and then tries to counter when

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Speaker 2: he draws his opponent out as well as a guy

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Speaker 2: you can draw out, because he really wants to just

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Speaker 2: there and swing heavy punches back and forth, and I

336
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Speaker 2: think Riley's going to piece him up if he can

337
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Speaker 2: suck him into that kind of fight.

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Speaker 3: Riley also has really good leg kicks.

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Speaker 2: He didn't get to show it in the UFC too

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Speaker 2: much because his opponent kept trying to take him down.

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Speaker 2: I really liked that he had the discipline to keep

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Speaker 2: his feet on the ground when facing a grappler, but

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Speaker 2: then open up with those against better matchups and cage warriors,

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Speaker 2: which is why I'm on like the round two round

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Speaker 2: three props. I think he's going to just kind of

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Speaker 2: break as well down over time. I don't think he's

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Speaker 2: going to start him with one shot, but he's got

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Speaker 2: really good volume. Riley has really good volume, really good output.

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Speaker 2: He can maintain that pace for a long time. I'm

350
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Speaker 2: hoping it gets all the way to round three because

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Speaker 2: I'm betting the same on both of those, and it's

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Speaker 2: a better prop. I think a round two finish is

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Speaker 2: probably the likeliest single outcome here. Just as the lake

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Speaker 2: kicks pile up, as the counterpunches pile up as well,

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Speaker 2: gets frustrated and swinging bigger and bigger. I think that's

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Speaker 2: when Riley's going to do the most damage. But I'm

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Speaker 2: doing half a unit on Riley inside the distance in general,

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Speaker 2: and then point one on his round two and round

359
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Speaker 2: three props that way, if you gets to finish it all,

360
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Speaker 2: I'm coming out well ahead. But if it's two or three,

361
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Speaker 2: much bigger and if you get a better price on

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Speaker 2: him live by all means, I just don't think you

363
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Speaker 2: will against Skyl Like aswell. This fight was not a

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Speaker 2: let's see who's the better fighter here, it's hey, everybody,

365
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Speaker 2: look how good and fun mc bridley is.

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Speaker 3: Why the UFC made this fight.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely sticking him in the comin event with limited

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Speaker 1: a UFC experience, trying to get a highlight for him

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Speaker 1: right away, actually surprised Christian Leroy Duncan is not in

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Speaker 1: the co main event here, even though I think his

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Speaker 1: opponent ended up getting replaced before we get there. We're

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Speaker 1: going to turn to our favorite underdogs on this car.

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Speaker 1: This one in particular would be among my best bets,

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Speaker 1: but it is my favorite underdog too, and I have

375
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Speaker 1: another bet that I like later that I'm gonna save

376
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Speaker 1: for the best bet section. Billy and I are aligned

377
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Speaker 1: on another underdog that we'll get to in a moment

378
00:17:48,320 --> 00:17:51,040
Speaker 1: as well. But Michael Venim page minus one ninety two

379
00:17:51,119 --> 00:17:55,520
Speaker 1: against Sam Patterson sitting closer to plus one sixty, fight

380
00:17:55,560 --> 00:17:58,320
Speaker 1: around plus one thirty to go to a decision. Patterson

381
00:17:58,400 --> 00:18:01,439
Speaker 1: nine years younger and clearly the better grappler. But what

382
00:18:01,520 --> 00:18:03,840
Speaker 1: I like most about this matchup because he's essentially the

383
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Speaker 1: same size as MVP. MVP typically smoother, quicker, better footwork

384
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Speaker 1: than a lot of the guys at well at the rate,

385
00:18:10,880 --> 00:18:14,600
Speaker 1: but also taller, longer, lankier. He doesn't have those advantages

386
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Speaker 1: over Sam Patterson, and I think Patterson is able to

387
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Speaker 1: get this fight to the ground with his long limbs,

388
00:18:19,200 --> 00:18:21,760
Speaker 1: with his elite grappling, He's going to pose a real

389
00:18:21,840 --> 00:18:25,680
Speaker 1: problem for MVP, who we have seen grappled in the past.

390
00:18:25,680 --> 00:18:27,960
Speaker 1: I don't think his takedown defense, I don't think his

391
00:18:28,040 --> 00:18:31,280
Speaker 1: overall defensive grappling has made massive shrides in his late thirties.

392
00:18:31,320 --> 00:18:33,760
Speaker 1: I think he's just shown that he is better at

393
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Speaker 1: it than people thought he was. But I do think

394
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Speaker 1: Patterson is the type of fighter who's going to put

395
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Speaker 1: it to the test and getting the guy with full

396
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Speaker 1: grappling upside of plus money who I think can end

397
00:18:42,720 --> 00:18:47,240
Speaker 1: the fight via submission certainly a position that I want

398
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Speaker 1: to back here. I make Patterson about plus one twenty five.

399
00:18:50,720 --> 00:18:53,040
Speaker 1: I take his money line down to about plus one

400
00:18:53,119 --> 00:18:56,000
Speaker 1: thirty five, and then I also kind of align with

401
00:18:56,040 --> 00:18:57,920
Speaker 1: his submission prop as well. I make it about plus

402
00:18:57,920 --> 00:19:00,840
Speaker 1: four to fifty. That's roughly where the market is. Probably

403
00:19:00,840 --> 00:19:04,440
Speaker 1: a bet I'll consider poking as well. But Patterson on

404
00:19:04,560 --> 00:19:06,440
Speaker 1: the money line one of my favorite bets this week

405
00:19:06,440 --> 00:19:10,680
Speaker 1: and certainly my favorite underdog on this card. Billy MVP

406
00:19:10,760 --> 00:19:13,600
Speaker 1: against Sam Patterson. We've been on MVP a bunch in

407
00:19:13,720 --> 00:19:16,280
Speaker 1: his UFC fights. Just want us some money in his

408
00:19:16,400 --> 00:19:19,919
Speaker 1: UFC fights. Do you agree or disagree that it's the

409
00:19:20,119 --> 00:19:23,000
Speaker 1: time to potentially fade him with the craploid here?

410
00:19:23,880 --> 00:19:24,280
Speaker 3: I do.

411
00:19:24,359 --> 00:19:26,560
Speaker 2: I'm probably not gonna do it myself. I actually really

412
00:19:26,600 --> 00:19:28,520
Speaker 2: like the over two and a half at plus money here.

413
00:19:28,760 --> 00:19:31,680
Speaker 2: These guys are like, from my understanding, pretty close friends

414
00:19:31,680 --> 00:19:35,040
Speaker 2: who trained together extensively for a while, and MVP. You know,

415
00:19:35,040 --> 00:19:37,480
Speaker 2: if you look at his UFC record, I think they've

416
00:19:37,640 --> 00:19:41,199
Speaker 2: all been decisions, right, Yeah, four straight decisions anyway, and

417
00:19:41,240 --> 00:19:44,239
Speaker 2: that's against guys he was trying to hurt. He might

418
00:19:44,280 --> 00:19:46,479
Speaker 2: not be trying to hurt Sam Patterson here or vice sources.

419
00:19:46,680 --> 00:19:50,159
Speaker 2: So given all that, I think MVP probably loses a

420
00:19:50,240 --> 00:19:53,080
Speaker 2: kind of boring decision. It could be the last fight

421
00:19:53,119 --> 00:19:54,920
Speaker 2: on his deal. It's his fifth UFC fight, no idea

422
00:19:54,960 --> 00:19:57,119
Speaker 2: how long they signed him for. He loses a boring

423
00:19:57,200 --> 00:20:00,640
Speaker 2: decision and doesn't get hurt in the process, just enough

424
00:20:00,640 --> 00:20:03,880
Speaker 2: time to get on the MVP card against somebody MVP

425
00:20:04,200 --> 00:20:07,040
Speaker 2: on MVP. This needs to happen. We need for those

426
00:20:07,119 --> 00:20:09,760
Speaker 2: who don't know, the MVP card is the Gina Crano

427
00:20:09,880 --> 00:20:12,720
Speaker 2: Rondie Rousey card. You gotta get MVP on MVP. I

428
00:20:12,720 --> 00:20:15,399
Speaker 2: think he loses a boring decision, gets himself cut, and

429
00:20:15,440 --> 00:20:17,159
Speaker 2: we see him on Netflix in two months. That's my

430
00:20:17,200 --> 00:20:18,080
Speaker 2: hot take for the event.

431
00:20:18,440 --> 00:20:20,679
Speaker 1: Who do you pair him up with. Who's the opponent

432
00:20:20,720 --> 00:20:21,639
Speaker 1: you're eyeing for him?

433
00:20:21,680 --> 00:20:23,919
Speaker 2: Some random kid from California. It doesn't matter. We just

434
00:20:23,920 --> 00:20:27,680
Speaker 2: need MVP on MVP. Like if not about who he fights.

435
00:20:27,680 --> 00:20:30,280
Speaker 2: It's about that he fights. I mean, who do they

436
00:20:30,320 --> 00:20:32,439
Speaker 2: get for Francis mcgano, Felipe Limbs, Come on.

437
00:20:32,920 --> 00:20:34,880
Speaker 1: Could your rye a favor move up to Walter Waite

438
00:20:34,880 --> 00:20:35,399
Speaker 1: and take him on?

439
00:20:36,560 --> 00:20:39,760
Speaker 2: Whoever you got They got some like three and two

440
00:20:39,840 --> 00:20:43,800
Speaker 2: pro hanging around. Who lives within driving distance of the arena.

441
00:20:45,560 --> 00:20:47,320
Speaker 2: That would be who I pare him up with. Whoever

442
00:20:47,320 --> 00:20:47,640
Speaker 2: we got?

443
00:20:47,720 --> 00:20:50,439
Speaker 1: The other guy from southern California that I'm blanking on,

444
00:20:50,520 --> 00:20:53,360
Speaker 1: he really he wanted to fight. He's the same It's

445
00:20:53,400 --> 00:20:56,199
Speaker 1: like a featherweight, same division as Favor. Oh man, I

446
00:20:56,240 --> 00:20:59,920
Speaker 1: can't believe I'm blanking on this right now. I will

447
00:21:00,040 --> 00:21:01,560
Speaker 1: find oh Cub Swanson.

448
00:21:01,440 --> 00:21:04,000
Speaker 3: Yeah yeah, Stevens coming up in the UFC.

449
00:21:04,760 --> 00:21:07,520
Speaker 1: Probably a little small for uh for MVP, but.

450
00:21:07,720 --> 00:21:09,080
Speaker 3: You know, yeah, probably a little bit.

451
00:21:09,720 --> 00:21:12,679
Speaker 1: We're gonna we're gonna put it in California. Uh. Maybe

452
00:21:12,720 --> 00:21:15,639
Speaker 1: maybe Cub gets to enter also with a h a

453
00:21:15,720 --> 00:21:19,360
Speaker 1: weapon of some sort aside from just just his hands,

454
00:21:19,760 --> 00:21:21,800
Speaker 1: and we'll that'll make that fight a little bit more fair.

455
00:21:22,000 --> 00:21:25,080
Speaker 1: We're gonna move on to the consensus underdog that Billy

456
00:21:25,080 --> 00:21:27,600
Speaker 1: and I like on this card in the worst division

457
00:21:27,720 --> 00:21:30,120
Speaker 1: in the sport. Every one of these fights has been

458
00:21:30,400 --> 00:21:34,399
Speaker 1: an absolutely miserable watch in the UFC heavyweight division, and

459
00:21:34,440 --> 00:21:37,960
Speaker 1: we're taking one of those dogs in a potentially sloppy fight.

460
00:21:38,000 --> 00:21:42,200
Speaker 1: That's Louis Sutherland at about plus two ten against Brando

461
00:21:42,280 --> 00:21:44,720
Speaker 1: Parachich at minus two sixty five. Line has moved in

462
00:21:44,760 --> 00:21:47,439
Speaker 1: a little bit on Sutherland, but I make him closer

463
00:21:47,440 --> 00:21:49,480
Speaker 1: to plus one eighty five. I would bet him down

464
00:21:49,960 --> 00:21:52,080
Speaker 1: at about two to one or better. I also like

465
00:21:52,160 --> 00:21:54,920
Speaker 1: the over the over one and a half in this fight,

466
00:21:55,040 --> 00:21:56,840
Speaker 1: or that goes the decision as well. I think we

467
00:21:56,840 --> 00:21:59,680
Speaker 1: could see a bunch of clinching up against the fence

468
00:21:59,680 --> 00:22:02,800
Speaker 1: here in minimum. I like Sutherland to extend things, get

469
00:22:02,800 --> 00:22:06,240
Speaker 1: out of round one and then potentially win a sloppy

470
00:22:06,280 --> 00:22:09,399
Speaker 1: decision against the bigger man Parachidge two inches taller a

471
00:22:09,480 --> 00:22:13,280
Speaker 1: three inch reach advantage. But Sutherland is absolutely jacked. I'm

472
00:22:13,320 --> 00:22:16,679
Speaker 1: hoping he could get some cage push and win a

473
00:22:16,840 --> 00:22:22,920
Speaker 1: gross decision against Brando Cheritrich. So my bets here Sutherland

474
00:22:23,000 --> 00:22:24,520
Speaker 1: at two to one or better. In the over one

475
00:22:24,520 --> 00:22:27,240
Speaker 1: and a half I believe is plus money as well.

476
00:22:27,280 --> 00:22:29,200
Speaker 1: The ghost of decision is also near four to one,

477
00:22:29,240 --> 00:22:31,160
Speaker 1: but I don't know if it'll end up going all

478
00:22:31,200 --> 00:22:34,439
Speaker 1: fifteen minutes could be worth a look as well, though, Billy.

479
00:22:34,640 --> 00:22:37,240
Speaker 1: Aside from the bet on Sutherland and I want your

480
00:22:37,520 --> 00:22:39,840
Speaker 1: analysis of that, I would also like your take on

481
00:22:39,920 --> 00:22:41,960
Speaker 1: the over under and the plus money you could get

482
00:22:42,040 --> 00:22:43,320
Speaker 1: hold on the over one and a half in the

483
00:22:43,320 --> 00:22:44,000
Speaker 1: Ghost decision.

484
00:22:44,760 --> 00:22:46,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, heavyweight overs are always great, like we

485
00:22:46,720 --> 00:22:49,760
Speaker 2: saw Vtor Portrado and Steven Aspland last week.

486
00:22:50,040 --> 00:22:52,240
Speaker 3: Actually it wasn't a good fight. It was a fun

487
00:22:52,280 --> 00:22:53,480
Speaker 3: fight for like the wrong reason.

488
00:22:53,800 --> 00:22:55,360
Speaker 2: Those guys just beat the crap out of each other

489
00:22:55,359 --> 00:22:56,600
Speaker 2: and still nobody got stopped.

490
00:22:56,640 --> 00:22:59,240
Speaker 3: So heavyweight overs and flyweight unders.

491
00:22:58,920 --> 00:23:01,400
Speaker 2: Because we live in the upside down world are both

492
00:23:01,520 --> 00:23:05,119
Speaker 2: like almost always good slash fun bats to make. Lately,

493
00:23:05,160 --> 00:23:09,000
Speaker 2: it feels like I actually really like Louis Sutherland. I

494
00:23:09,040 --> 00:23:10,520
Speaker 2: was on him last time, and I'm going to talk

495
00:23:10,520 --> 00:23:12,480
Speaker 2: about that fight in just a second. He's a big,

496
00:23:12,520 --> 00:23:16,879
Speaker 2: athletic former rugby player I believe, who can move pretty

497
00:23:16,880 --> 00:23:19,520
Speaker 2: well and at heavyweight. Like that's enough. And I have

498
00:23:19,600 --> 00:23:22,439
Speaker 2: a new rule for when I'm like handicapping fights. It

499
00:23:22,480 --> 00:23:25,119
Speaker 2: only applies to heavyweights for a second year, which is,

500
00:23:25,359 --> 00:23:26,600
Speaker 2: if you got he'll hooked.

501
00:23:26,320 --> 00:23:27,240
Speaker 3: By Walter Walker.

502
00:23:27,560 --> 00:23:31,040
Speaker 2: No, you didn't, It didn't count. It doesn't matter. It's

503
00:23:31,040 --> 00:23:33,399
Speaker 2: happened to everyone. I can't explain it. It should be

504
00:23:33,960 --> 00:23:37,840
Speaker 2: incredibly easy to predict and that's defend, but nobody can.

505
00:23:37,960 --> 00:23:40,240
Speaker 2: So there's clearly like some voodoo or black magic like

506
00:23:40,320 --> 00:23:43,240
Speaker 2: Yarry accused the hata of I think Walter Walker got

507
00:23:43,240 --> 00:23:46,600
Speaker 2: his hands on the Amazonian magic as well. So if

508
00:23:46,640 --> 00:23:49,360
Speaker 2: you strike that, he'll hook lost to Walter Walker. From

509
00:23:49,400 --> 00:23:52,160
Speaker 2: Louis Sutherland's record, I don't think he's nearly as big

510
00:23:52,200 --> 00:23:54,480
Speaker 2: of a underdog as he is in this one, because

511
00:23:55,280 --> 00:23:58,520
Speaker 2: Brando Parisik beat a really out of shape guy who

512
00:23:58,560 --> 00:24:02,280
Speaker 2: came in on short notice. In his fight, it wasn't

513
00:24:02,280 --> 00:24:04,480
Speaker 2: short notice, like they moved it from the Contender Series

514
00:24:04,520 --> 00:24:07,879
Speaker 2: to a UFC proper fight for no reason. Wish nobody

515
00:24:07,960 --> 00:24:12,639
Speaker 2: really understood. Regardless, he got a two minute win, and

516
00:24:12,680 --> 00:24:14,959
Speaker 2: I still wasn't especially impressed. And I just think Louis

517
00:24:15,080 --> 00:24:17,240
Speaker 2: is a better athlete when he's not getting heal hood

518
00:24:17,240 --> 00:24:20,040
Speaker 2: by Walter Walker, which again no longer counts. Those are

519
00:24:20,080 --> 00:24:23,000
Speaker 2: stricken from the handicapping record because it just doesn't make

520
00:24:23,040 --> 00:24:23,680
Speaker 2: sense anymore.

521
00:24:24,280 --> 00:24:27,000
Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast has teamed up with DraftKings sportsbook

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530
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531
00:24:51,320 --> 00:24:53,160
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536
00:25:03,680 --> 00:25:05,000
Speaker 1: to all of our picks as soon as we get

537
00:25:05,000 --> 00:25:06,640
Speaker 1: them and log them in the app, and we're waiting

538
00:25:06,640 --> 00:25:09,400
Speaker 1: thirty minutes and getting stale lines. We'll also have NCAA

539
00:25:09,480 --> 00:25:12,680
Speaker 1: player props powered by our analytics team that smash it

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00:25:12,760 --> 00:25:16,040
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Speaker 1: yourself signed up for forty nine ninety nine for six months.

542
00:25:20,440 --> 00:25:23,919
Speaker 1: Today we're going to move on to our top props section.

543
00:25:24,000 --> 00:25:26,719
Speaker 1: A number of fights we're going to touch on here,

544
00:25:27,359 --> 00:25:30,359
Speaker 1: first being you know what we're actually we're going to

545
00:25:30,400 --> 00:25:32,440
Speaker 1: save this fight because you have it in your Best

546
00:25:32,480 --> 00:25:34,840
Speaker 1: bet section. So I'm going to start off with your

547
00:25:34,840 --> 00:25:36,959
Speaker 1: fights and your props, Billy, because I didn't really have

548
00:25:37,040 --> 00:25:39,800
Speaker 1: many thoughts on these, the first of which is Eo

549
00:25:40,240 --> 00:25:44,800
Speaker 1: Barnisky against Austin Lane Baroneski minus six thirty Lane plus

550
00:25:44,880 --> 00:25:47,240
Speaker 1: four fifty is the light heavyweight fight. Not sure how

551
00:25:47,320 --> 00:25:50,840
Speaker 1: Austin Lane is getting down to light heavyweight. He's thirty

552
00:25:50,880 --> 00:25:52,600
Speaker 1: eight years old. He's cutting to two of five, I

553
00:25:52,640 --> 00:25:54,560
Speaker 1: believe for the first time in his career. It's been

554
00:25:54,640 --> 00:25:57,600
Speaker 1: knocked out seven times. But if he's able to make it,

555
00:25:57,640 --> 00:26:00,560
Speaker 1: he's the much bigger man six inches taller, seven inch

556
00:26:00,600 --> 00:26:04,120
Speaker 1: reach advantage. I do imagine, though, cutting all of that

557
00:26:04,160 --> 00:26:06,160
Speaker 1: weight is going to suck him out, and baron Eski

558
00:26:06,760 --> 00:26:09,800
Speaker 1: is probably going to knock him out relatively quickly. I

559
00:26:09,800 --> 00:26:12,240
Speaker 1: would probably just blindly take the under one and a

560
00:26:12,280 --> 00:26:16,840
Speaker 1: half here. It is difficult, though, to find value on

561
00:26:16,880 --> 00:26:19,320
Speaker 1: this fight, and it's if I had to guess if

562
00:26:19,359 --> 00:26:20,720
Speaker 1: I had to bet that one fight is going to

563
00:26:20,840 --> 00:26:23,600
Speaker 1: end up getting canceled, it is probably this one. So

564
00:26:23,680 --> 00:26:27,280
Speaker 1: Billy's you know your bets that you're gonna give out here.

565
00:26:27,480 --> 00:26:31,359
Speaker 1: Very likely, I would say, at least partially likely. Do

566
00:26:31,480 --> 00:26:34,840
Speaker 1: not end up being graded. But you like Baronesky to

567
00:26:35,000 --> 00:26:39,280
Speaker 1: land a takedown in this matchup at plus two hundred.

568
00:26:39,359 --> 00:26:42,119
Speaker 2: Seeing me your thoughts, Yeah, this one is just a

569
00:26:42,240 --> 00:26:46,119
Speaker 2: pure I think the market slash sportsbooks don't realize Barnuski

570
00:26:46,119 --> 00:26:47,120
Speaker 2: has a grappling background.

571
00:26:47,160 --> 00:26:47,560
Speaker 1: He was like.

572
00:26:47,520 --> 00:26:51,840
Speaker 2: Polish ADCC I want to say Polish champ, but maybe

573
00:26:52,000 --> 00:26:53,920
Speaker 2: just like Polish and level competitor.

574
00:26:53,960 --> 00:26:54,320
Speaker 3: I don't know.

575
00:26:54,760 --> 00:26:56,879
Speaker 2: But he got in two Wars and the Contender series.

576
00:26:56,920 --> 00:27:00,800
Speaker 2: He fought Muhammad Ali, who's like a Muhammad no relation

577
00:27:00,880 --> 00:27:03,760
Speaker 2: as I said last time, who's an elite level jiu

578
00:27:03,840 --> 00:27:06,080
Speaker 2: jitsu player, so he obviously wasn't gonna take him down.

579
00:27:06,280 --> 00:27:08,359
Speaker 2: He knocked him out in twenty seconds. And then as

580
00:27:08,480 --> 00:27:11,520
Speaker 2: UFC debut proper was against Ebo Aslan and they both

581
00:27:11,600 --> 00:27:14,359
Speaker 2: just started swinging and dropping each other right away. I

582
00:27:14,359 --> 00:27:16,919
Speaker 2: think if he's allowed to fight for more than ninety seconds,

583
00:27:16,960 --> 00:27:19,119
Speaker 2: he might shoot for a takedown because that's his background,

584
00:27:19,600 --> 00:27:22,320
Speaker 2: and Austin Lane goes for takedowns himself, but he can't

585
00:27:22,520 --> 00:27:26,240
Speaker 2: actually grapple. He's just a better athlete than eighty percent

586
00:27:26,240 --> 00:27:28,919
Speaker 2: of heavyweights. But now he's no longer a heavyweight, and

587
00:27:28,960 --> 00:27:31,119
Speaker 2: will he have that strength or will have that speed

588
00:27:31,160 --> 00:27:33,480
Speaker 2: advantage that he did against big fat sloppy dudes.

589
00:27:33,800 --> 00:27:34,560
Speaker 3: Probably not.

590
00:27:35,160 --> 00:27:37,960
Speaker 2: He also got taken down and submitted by Vitor Patrino

591
00:27:38,000 --> 00:27:40,760
Speaker 2: in his last fight. So it's a pretty clear path

592
00:27:40,840 --> 00:27:46,160
Speaker 2: to victory for Baranouski, who probably shouldn't just keep getting

593
00:27:46,200 --> 00:27:48,840
Speaker 2: in Extreme rock and SoC and robot wars over and

594
00:27:48,840 --> 00:27:53,439
Speaker 2: over for like both his career longevity and his like

595
00:27:53,520 --> 00:27:56,800
Speaker 2: actual longevity and personal well being. So he got a

596
00:27:56,800 --> 00:27:59,440
Speaker 2: straightforward path to taken down Austin Lane just by being

597
00:27:59,440 --> 00:28:01,919
Speaker 2: the better tech. I think he takes it. And at

598
00:28:01,920 --> 00:28:05,160
Speaker 2: plus two hundred, if he does use a grappling heavy

599
00:28:05,200 --> 00:28:07,280
Speaker 2: game plan here, we'll never get those lines again because

600
00:28:07,280 --> 00:28:09,439
Speaker 2: the word will be out he actually is more of

601
00:28:09,440 --> 00:28:10,520
Speaker 2: a grappler than a brawler.

602
00:28:11,119 --> 00:28:11,280
Speaker 3: Now.

603
00:28:11,359 --> 00:28:14,200
Speaker 1: Dyer's minus five hundred against Ravina Olvera is a woman

604
00:28:14,280 --> 00:28:16,840
Speaker 1: stroway about I do show value on this fight to

605
00:28:16,880 --> 00:28:20,760
Speaker 1: go to a decision at minus three thirty and you

606
00:28:20,800 --> 00:28:23,920
Speaker 1: can bet it at minus two thirty. And you also

607
00:28:24,080 --> 00:28:27,160
Speaker 1: like Dire to land the over on her significant strike prop.

608
00:28:27,200 --> 00:28:28,680
Speaker 1: I don't know if we have a line for that yet,

609
00:28:28,760 --> 00:28:31,159
Speaker 1: but considering I do like the fight to go all

610
00:28:31,200 --> 00:28:33,679
Speaker 1: fifteen minutes, I think it speaks to the fact that

611
00:28:33,720 --> 00:28:36,159
Speaker 1: she should clear that number to fight where she's a

612
00:28:36,160 --> 00:28:40,840
Speaker 1: minus five hundred favorite olvera curious billy. I mean, it's

613
00:28:40,880 --> 00:28:42,640
Speaker 1: one hundred and fifteen pound fight. You just think she

614
00:28:42,720 --> 00:28:45,240
Speaker 1: could take the damage well enough that she's able to

615
00:28:45,240 --> 00:28:48,240
Speaker 1: survive and allow Dyer to rack up the significa strikes.

616
00:28:49,440 --> 00:28:52,479
Speaker 2: Yeah, not lines up at draftings yet some other places

617
00:28:52,480 --> 00:28:55,520
Speaker 2: I'm seeing that line about seventy for Dire. I believe

618
00:28:55,560 --> 00:28:57,360
Speaker 2: she can clear that she landed one hundred and fifteen

619
00:28:57,360 --> 00:29:00,840
Speaker 2: on the Contender series in an absolute war against Carol

620
00:29:01,040 --> 00:29:04,520
Speaker 2: that Chanel Dyer was knocked down three times in that

621
00:29:04,560 --> 00:29:06,400
Speaker 2: fight and still had time to land over a hundred

622
00:29:06,400 --> 00:29:09,880
Speaker 2: significant strike highly regarded muy Thai background. She was fighting

623
00:29:09,880 --> 00:29:13,000
Speaker 2: a karate style fighter in the Contender series, and that

624
00:29:13,320 --> 00:29:15,240
Speaker 2: in theory makes it much harder to land a high

625
00:29:15,280 --> 00:29:17,240
Speaker 2: volume of strikes because of the range and the distance

626
00:29:17,320 --> 00:29:21,040
Speaker 2: management Ravina. Olivera is not that not a great defensive striker,

627
00:29:21,960 --> 00:29:23,840
Speaker 2: and I just don't think Dyer has the power to

628
00:29:23,840 --> 00:29:25,880
Speaker 2: put her away, at least not with any of the

629
00:29:25,880 --> 00:29:28,400
Speaker 2: first seventy or so significant strikes she lands.

630
00:29:29,080 --> 00:29:30,640
Speaker 3: Day are also a much better athlete.

631
00:29:30,720 --> 00:29:33,240
Speaker 2: So again with what you said, expecting this fight to

632
00:29:33,280 --> 00:29:36,400
Speaker 2: go to the distance, Expecting her to land five or

633
00:29:36,440 --> 00:29:39,000
Speaker 2: six probably significant strikes for a minute puts her on

634
00:29:39,080 --> 00:29:41,280
Speaker 2: pace to get that in eleven or twelve minutes. Could

635
00:29:41,320 --> 00:29:43,400
Speaker 2: easily land more than that if there's no grappling that

636
00:29:43,400 --> 00:29:45,880
Speaker 2: she has to defend, which there might be early, but

637
00:29:45,960 --> 00:29:49,600
Speaker 2: as Olivera tires, there probably won't be. So that line

638
00:29:49,640 --> 00:29:53,160
Speaker 2: is around seventy or lower. Obviously, I'm going to take

639
00:29:53,200 --> 00:29:55,760
Speaker 2: the over on that, but I'm waiting for DraftKings to

640
00:29:55,800 --> 00:29:56,600
Speaker 2: post their line.

641
00:29:57,520 --> 00:30:00,400
Speaker 1: Christian Leroy Duncan is about minus five hundred against Roman.

642
00:30:00,600 --> 00:30:04,640
Speaker 1: The leads middleway about here. We both like this fight

643
00:30:04,680 --> 00:30:07,280
Speaker 1: to end inside the distance. I specifically, though, am taking

644
00:30:07,360 --> 00:30:10,760
Speaker 1: cold inside the distance. I make that prop around even money,

645
00:30:10,840 --> 00:30:13,360
Speaker 1: you can bet it at plus one ten. I also

646
00:30:13,840 --> 00:30:16,240
Speaker 1: lean towards his knockout prop as well, but would rather

647
00:30:16,320 --> 00:30:19,400
Speaker 1: have the inside the distance given the limited price discrepancy,

648
00:30:19,680 --> 00:30:21,520
Speaker 1: you're taking the fight to end inside the distance, Billy,

649
00:30:21,560 --> 00:30:24,160
Speaker 1: which I believe is closer to minus one thirty. I'm

650
00:30:24,200 --> 00:30:26,920
Speaker 1: a little bit more in alignment with that market. I

651
00:30:26,920 --> 00:30:29,520
Speaker 1: do think CLD is a little bit more durable, I suppose,

652
00:30:29,600 --> 00:30:32,120
Speaker 1: or at least my model does than to Leads. So

653
00:30:32,400 --> 00:30:35,240
Speaker 1: more value for me, just purely more slightly more value

654
00:30:35,320 --> 00:30:38,240
Speaker 1: or bigger edge on Duncan to win inside the distance

655
00:30:38,240 --> 00:30:40,400
Speaker 1: would completely get the argument for betting the fight to

656
00:30:40,480 --> 00:30:45,720
Speaker 1: end inside the distance, considering the price discrepancy isn't huge, Billy,

657
00:30:46,360 --> 00:30:48,440
Speaker 1: how do you see this happening? I would assume it's

658
00:30:48,440 --> 00:30:50,320
Speaker 1: by knockout. Do you think it's going to be early

659
00:30:50,960 --> 00:30:54,120
Speaker 1: or more attritional? And then is the you're playing the

660
00:30:54,120 --> 00:30:56,160
Speaker 1: inside the distance? I would imagine because you think the

661
00:30:56,240 --> 00:30:59,440
Speaker 1: Leads has some submission upside as well. He's he's gotten

662
00:30:59,480 --> 00:31:02,000
Speaker 1: them and you know, has proven that he can get

663
00:31:02,000 --> 00:31:04,400
Speaker 1: fighters to weird positions and end up finishing fights.

664
00:31:05,280 --> 00:31:07,160
Speaker 2: It's hilarious that he doesn't have a submission in the

665
00:31:07,200 --> 00:31:08,800
Speaker 2: UFC because he had that crazy I believe it was

666
00:31:08,800 --> 00:31:10,680
Speaker 2: on Phil Hallies when he wrapped him up in like

667
00:31:10,760 --> 00:31:14,240
Speaker 2: a it almost looked like the John Cena finisher the STF.

668
00:31:14,880 --> 00:31:16,520
Speaker 1: I think it was man we put in like the

669
00:31:16,520 --> 00:31:20,840
Speaker 1: weird position. Yeah, it was like a technical positional finish

670
00:31:20,920 --> 00:31:22,400
Speaker 1: that essentially was his submission.

671
00:31:23,120 --> 00:31:27,480
Speaker 2: But yeah, but they great it is he can regardless. Actually,

672
00:31:27,480 --> 00:31:28,920
Speaker 2: now that I'm looking at the lines, I'll probably go

673
00:31:29,000 --> 00:31:30,880
Speaker 2: under two and a half, which is plus one hundred.

674
00:31:31,000 --> 00:31:33,720
Speaker 2: So like you're trading effectively the last two and a

675
00:31:33,760 --> 00:31:37,320
Speaker 2: half minutes of the fight for all of Dalidze's finishing chances,

676
00:31:37,360 --> 00:31:40,080
Speaker 2: which admittedly aren't great after he just got his soul

677
00:31:40,120 --> 00:31:43,000
Speaker 2: taken by Anthony Hernandez in the last fight, but had

678
00:31:43,000 --> 00:31:45,200
Speaker 2: some time off, and stylistically, at least this is a

679
00:31:45,200 --> 00:31:48,240
Speaker 2: better matchup, and that this is a very binary matchup

680
00:31:48,240 --> 00:31:51,160
Speaker 2: where Dalitz is the far better grappler and Duncan is

681
00:31:51,200 --> 00:31:53,800
Speaker 2: the far better athlete and striker. And there's any time

682
00:31:53,840 --> 00:31:55,520
Speaker 2: we see those you think, if it goes to the ground,

683
00:31:55,640 --> 00:31:57,800
Speaker 2: one guy should be able to finish. If it doesn't,

684
00:31:58,080 --> 00:32:00,800
Speaker 2: the other guy should. So it was really just the price.

685
00:32:00,840 --> 00:32:03,160
Speaker 2: I didn't even watch like any tape on this fight.

686
00:32:03,240 --> 00:32:05,280
Speaker 2: I just saw your bet in there, and then I

687
00:32:05,280 --> 00:32:07,960
Speaker 2: was filling out my spreadsheet and said, well, that's pretty

688
00:32:08,000 --> 00:32:10,200
Speaker 2: damn close to just the fight ends inside the distance,

689
00:32:10,600 --> 00:32:12,520
Speaker 2: So to me, it makes more sense to trade ten

690
00:32:12,600 --> 00:32:14,440
Speaker 2: cents and the last two and a half minutes of

691
00:32:14,480 --> 00:32:17,880
Speaker 2: the fight for whatever you know, probability you sign up

692
00:32:17,880 --> 00:32:19,920
Speaker 2: deletes are getting the finished.

693
00:32:20,920 --> 00:32:24,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, very reasonable approach there. I want to talk about

694
00:32:24,200 --> 00:32:27,400
Speaker 1: the Curtis Campbell against Danny's Silva fight. I think I

695
00:32:27,400 --> 00:32:31,520
Speaker 1: would be on opposite sides of the Campbell money line,

696
00:32:31,560 --> 00:32:34,640
Speaker 1: which I believe you do lean to or taking, but

697
00:32:34,720 --> 00:32:39,120
Speaker 1: you like the goes to decision here at about or sorry,

698
00:32:38,920 --> 00:32:41,520
Speaker 1: I have this fight that goes to the decision here

699
00:32:41,520 --> 00:32:43,520
Speaker 1: at about minus one forty five. We'll get to your

700
00:32:43,520 --> 00:32:47,280
Speaker 1: side on this matchup a little bit later. But also

701
00:32:47,320 --> 00:32:50,480
Speaker 1: the Jones Sola fight the Mason Jones Axle solo fight

702
00:32:51,040 --> 00:32:53,920
Speaker 1: as well. I make that fight about minus one seventy

703
00:32:53,960 --> 00:32:55,440
Speaker 1: seven to go to decision. You can get that at

704
00:32:55,480 --> 00:32:58,440
Speaker 1: minus one fifty. In the Silva Campbell fight, I make

705
00:32:58,440 --> 00:33:03,280
Speaker 1: about minus two twenty and you can get it closer

706
00:33:03,320 --> 00:33:06,080
Speaker 1: to minus one sixties. So the ghost the decision on

707
00:33:06,160 --> 00:33:08,160
Speaker 1: both of those bouts. But I do want to transition

708
00:33:09,120 --> 00:33:12,240
Speaker 1: to Billy's best bets or his final bets here, which

709
00:33:12,280 --> 00:33:14,640
Speaker 1: are both on Mason Jones at minus one twenty five

710
00:33:15,160 --> 00:33:18,280
Speaker 1: and Curtis Campbell at minus two thirties. We'll start with

711
00:33:18,320 --> 00:33:20,680
Speaker 1: the Jones and Sola fight Billy, and then we'll move

712
00:33:20,720 --> 00:33:25,640
Speaker 1: on to Campbell and Silva. Mason Jones, the Welshman is

713
00:33:25,720 --> 00:33:29,200
Speaker 1: technically the hometown fighter. I suppose solo though eleven and

714
00:33:29,280 --> 00:33:32,960
Speaker 1: zero coming in with a draw looks super jacked up himself,

715
00:33:33,000 --> 00:33:36,880
Speaker 1: but don't necessarily know if those muscles are more than aesthetic,

716
00:33:36,920 --> 00:33:39,480
Speaker 1: because I think Jones is the better grappler here, and

717
00:33:39,560 --> 00:33:41,440
Speaker 1: I think this fight is going to be very competitive,

718
00:33:41,440 --> 00:33:43,800
Speaker 1: but I'm expecting Jones to have the better gas tank

719
00:33:44,240 --> 00:33:47,200
Speaker 1: and ultimately pull it out. He's one of your best

720
00:33:47,200 --> 00:33:49,560
Speaker 1: bets this week. Where do you like his money line too?

721
00:33:50,000 --> 00:33:51,320
Speaker 1: And how do you feel about the ghost of the

722
00:33:51,400 --> 00:33:52,560
Speaker 1: decision bet alongside it?

723
00:33:53,520 --> 00:33:55,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, I made this really hard for Sean structurally, for

724
00:33:55,760 --> 00:33:59,640
Speaker 2: anyone listening to the uncomfortability of that best because my

725
00:33:59,720 --> 00:34:02,120
Speaker 2: two best bats around fights that he had props on,

726
00:34:02,200 --> 00:34:04,240
Speaker 2: which like makes it really hard for him to transition

727
00:34:04,880 --> 00:34:07,920
Speaker 2: naturally there. Campbell is more of a final bet. I'm

728
00:34:07,920 --> 00:34:10,360
Speaker 2: more passionate about the Jones one. I was just watching

729
00:34:10,400 --> 00:34:12,480
Speaker 2: some tape and I actually just kind of on a

730
00:34:12,480 --> 00:34:15,359
Speaker 2: whim did a full fight preview of this one. It's

731
00:34:15,400 --> 00:34:19,160
Speaker 2: a very interesting fight where Jones is just very He's

732
00:34:19,160 --> 00:34:21,920
Speaker 2: pretty slow. He just kind of plods forward throwing heavy strikes,

733
00:34:22,160 --> 00:34:23,800
Speaker 2: but once he grabs you, you're in trouble. He's a

734
00:34:23,840 --> 00:34:28,399
Speaker 2: high level judo competitor and has really really good top game,

735
00:34:28,640 --> 00:34:31,600
Speaker 2: both in terms of his damage that he does from

736
00:34:31,640 --> 00:34:35,320
Speaker 2: there and is like Jujitsu style guard passing, positional advancement

737
00:34:35,360 --> 00:34:38,120
Speaker 2: holding a guy down, so look kind of fights moving

738
00:34:38,160 --> 00:34:41,200
Speaker 2: backwards and is trying to step in place and set

739
00:34:41,239 --> 00:34:44,319
Speaker 2: up big shots. The reason why I'm on Jones, and

740
00:34:44,320 --> 00:34:47,120
Speaker 2: what also lends itself to your prop is I don't

741
00:34:47,160 --> 00:34:49,120
Speaker 2: know that the man is capable of being knocked out.

742
00:34:49,120 --> 00:34:53,040
Speaker 2: He has taken some hillacious shots across his fights, and

743
00:34:53,200 --> 00:34:55,120
Speaker 2: every time you see him, his face is a little

744
00:34:55,120 --> 00:34:57,279
Speaker 2: bit different because it was rearranged in the last fight,

745
00:34:57,440 --> 00:34:59,719
Speaker 2: but he just keeps getting up and plotting forward.

746
00:34:59,719 --> 00:35:00,719
Speaker 3: He's just the terminator.

747
00:35:01,400 --> 00:35:05,040
Speaker 2: And given the style that Sola fights at, we're trying

748
00:35:05,040 --> 00:35:07,080
Speaker 2: to keep his range and dance around and stuff. I

749
00:35:07,120 --> 00:35:08,800
Speaker 2: think Jones is just eventually going to grab him and

750
00:35:08,800 --> 00:35:10,640
Speaker 2: get him to the fence and bring him down, and

751
00:35:10,680 --> 00:35:13,160
Speaker 2: it's going to look more definitive to the judges if

752
00:35:13,200 --> 00:35:15,719
Speaker 2: he's able to hold that position the whole time. I

753
00:35:15,719 --> 00:35:18,240
Speaker 2: got him at I want to say minus one twenty.

754
00:35:18,719 --> 00:35:20,800
Speaker 2: It's moved around, kind of jumped up and down a

755
00:35:20,840 --> 00:35:23,040
Speaker 2: little bit. I think anything inside of minus one forty

756
00:35:23,760 --> 00:35:26,160
Speaker 2: I'd be on Jones and at that point if it

757
00:35:26,160 --> 00:35:28,279
Speaker 2: crossed over, I would switch to your bet of fight

758
00:35:28,360 --> 00:35:31,680
Speaker 2: goes to the distance. I think that probably favors Jones

759
00:35:31,719 --> 00:35:33,120
Speaker 2: a little bit if you told me ahead of time,

760
00:35:33,120 --> 00:35:36,440
Speaker 2: this one definitely goes to a decision, partially because it's

761
00:35:36,480 --> 00:35:39,319
Speaker 2: in the UK and not France, and we've got we're

762
00:35:39,320 --> 00:35:41,560
Speaker 2: going to be a very partisan crowd with a Welsh

763
00:35:41,600 --> 00:35:44,080
Speaker 2: dude fighting a French guy. Also fun, this is kind

764
00:35:44,120 --> 00:35:47,799
Speaker 2: of like the Cross Promotional championship because Jones was Cage

765
00:35:47,840 --> 00:35:51,480
Speaker 2: Warriors Lightweight worltweight champion and Solo was Aries, which is

766
00:35:51,520 --> 00:35:56,399
Speaker 2: the French Promotions champion. So we're putting the promotional standards

767
00:35:56,760 --> 00:35:58,440
Speaker 2: up against each other in this fight as well as

768
00:35:58,480 --> 00:36:01,200
Speaker 2: just the two athletes.

769
00:36:00,200 --> 00:36:02,200
Speaker 1: Live after round one to target for you as well.

770
00:36:03,600 --> 00:36:06,000
Speaker 2: Not blindly, I'd have to see how it's going like

771
00:36:06,040 --> 00:36:08,440
Speaker 2: if he got hit a little bit but then finished

772
00:36:08,440 --> 00:36:11,160
Speaker 2: the round by getting to a closer position, they're getting

773
00:36:11,160 --> 00:36:13,359
Speaker 2: some grappling going, then yes, I don't. I don't think

774
00:36:13,360 --> 00:36:15,799
Speaker 2: it's like a cardio issue so much as just who

775
00:36:15,800 --> 00:36:17,960
Speaker 2: did what, how, how the fights plan out.

776
00:36:18,960 --> 00:36:21,319
Speaker 1: Just to reiterate, I like the ghost. The decision on

777
00:36:21,360 --> 00:36:24,800
Speaker 1: that bout not huge. It's listed about minus one sixty.

778
00:36:24,840 --> 00:36:27,920
Speaker 1: I make it closer to minus one eighty and Curtis

779
00:36:28,000 --> 00:36:31,920
Speaker 1: Campbell minus two thirty against Danny Silva. Campbell the pink Panther.

780
00:36:32,120 --> 00:36:35,160
Speaker 1: UFC gave him some custom shorts for his UFC debut.

781
00:36:35,760 --> 00:36:38,960
Speaker 1: Looks like a very talented striker. We tie Basse Silva.

782
00:36:39,040 --> 00:36:41,560
Speaker 1: We saw go three competitive rounds though with Kevin Blahos,

783
00:36:41,600 --> 00:36:44,520
Speaker 1: who just knocked out Josh Emmett and his main event

784
00:36:44,560 --> 00:36:46,960
Speaker 1: debut last week. So it does seem like the line

785
00:36:47,000 --> 00:36:49,680
Speaker 1: could be getting a little bit wide here on Silva

786
00:36:49,719 --> 00:36:52,520
Speaker 1: at north of two to one. I do make it

787
00:36:52,600 --> 00:36:56,279
Speaker 1: about minus two twenty, so I'm roughly in line with

788
00:36:56,360 --> 00:36:59,080
Speaker 1: the market. I'm probably gonna end up passing, but I

789
00:36:59,120 --> 00:37:00,600
Speaker 1: do make the ghost of this is in north of

790
00:37:00,600 --> 00:37:02,960
Speaker 1: two to one, and you can get minus one sixties,

791
00:37:03,000 --> 00:37:04,680
Speaker 1: so that'd be my bet on this fight. Billy, you said,

792
00:37:04,680 --> 00:37:07,719
Speaker 1: this is more of a final bet on Campbell for

793
00:37:07,760 --> 00:37:09,920
Speaker 1: you as opposed to a best bet. So where do

794
00:37:09,960 --> 00:37:12,040
Speaker 1: you like his money line too? And what did you

795
00:37:12,040 --> 00:37:12,920
Speaker 1: see in this breakdown?

796
00:37:13,880 --> 00:37:15,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't even know that I would actually bet

797
00:37:15,520 --> 00:37:17,560
Speaker 2: it with what it's at now, which is my apologies.

798
00:37:17,560 --> 00:37:19,560
Speaker 2: I put this in a little bit ago, but h

799
00:37:19,640 --> 00:37:22,160
Speaker 2: Campbell earlier in the week at minus two ten on

800
00:37:22,239 --> 00:37:24,000
Speaker 2: Sunday night, I was looking at some of these and

801
00:37:24,040 --> 00:37:26,359
Speaker 2: got it. It was really just a system slash luck

802
00:37:26,400 --> 00:37:28,880
Speaker 2: play for me. Where Danny Silva is two and one

803
00:37:28,880 --> 00:37:31,520
Speaker 2: in the UFC with two split decisions, one of which

804
00:37:31,560 --> 00:37:34,040
Speaker 2: he missed wait for which is not you know, a

805
00:37:34,160 --> 00:37:38,800
Speaker 2: great way to build that record losing to Kevin Valleys.

806
00:37:39,440 --> 00:37:41,399
Speaker 2: But as I don't know, I can't say it how

807
00:37:42,000 --> 00:37:46,320
Speaker 2: how it pronounced. I was saying ballet host until last weekend. Anyway,

808
00:37:46,440 --> 00:37:49,360
Speaker 2: that loss was a good loss, such that those things exist.

809
00:37:49,520 --> 00:37:53,040
Speaker 2: But his wins were bad wins, such that bad wins exist.

810
00:37:53,560 --> 00:37:55,760
Speaker 2: And I was actually really impressed by the pink panther

811
00:37:56,120 --> 00:37:58,680
Speaker 2: in his last fight I talked up as grappling in

812
00:37:58,800 --> 00:38:01,000
Speaker 2: the Contender series break on of him and then he

813
00:38:01,040 --> 00:38:03,360
Speaker 2: came out and the striking looked really good too. Another

814
00:38:03,440 --> 00:38:06,400
Speaker 2: Liverpool guy does not train at the same gym as

815
00:38:07,440 --> 00:38:10,520
Speaker 2: Pimblead and sham Rock and Riley, but also in Liverpool

816
00:38:10,880 --> 00:38:13,040
Speaker 2: and honestly reminds me of Pimblet a little bit more

817
00:38:13,040 --> 00:38:15,200
Speaker 2: than any of those other guys, and that he's kind

818
00:38:15,200 --> 00:38:17,680
Speaker 2: of grappling first, but he'll also stand there and throw

819
00:38:17,760 --> 00:38:20,640
Speaker 2: really heavy shots and just Scousers don't get knocked out

820
00:38:20,680 --> 00:38:22,680
Speaker 2: his way to winning some striking exchanges.

821
00:38:23,560 --> 00:38:25,719
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think it's for sha hosts. This is the

822
00:38:25,760 --> 00:38:28,640
Speaker 1: same week that we also had what we thought was

823
00:38:28,680 --> 00:38:32,200
Speaker 1: Travius ETN say that he prefers there that it's meant

824
00:38:32,200 --> 00:38:35,239
Speaker 1: to be pronounced as So I'm just waiting for.

825
00:38:35,480 --> 00:38:37,399
Speaker 3: We're not doing that, Travis, Sorry it's been too long.

826
00:38:37,520 --> 00:38:40,560
Speaker 1: Von a change say that his name is pronounced etn,

827
00:38:40,800 --> 00:38:42,840
Speaker 1: and then they could just end up switching the spelling

828
00:38:42,920 --> 00:38:46,320
Speaker 1: for their names. We do our best to pronounce the fighters'

829
00:38:46,520 --> 00:38:49,359
Speaker 1: names correctly on this podcast because we do respect them.

830
00:38:49,360 --> 00:38:53,240
Speaker 1: It's just very difficult to get the correct pronunciation from Plass.

831
00:38:53,280 --> 00:38:57,400
Speaker 1: Sometimes you also watch videos, sometimes the announcers yeah correctly

832
00:38:57,440 --> 00:39:01,040
Speaker 1: as well. So when the fighters are brought into the UFC.

833
00:39:01,080 --> 00:39:04,680
Speaker 1: They do have them say on camera for the announcers

834
00:39:05,160 --> 00:39:07,440
Speaker 1: how they want their name pronounced, so that is how

835
00:39:07,480 --> 00:39:10,800
Speaker 1: the announcers know to get it correctly. And then sometimes

836
00:39:10,800 --> 00:39:12,840
Speaker 1: we don't know what the correct pronunciation is until we

837
00:39:12,840 --> 00:39:15,440
Speaker 1: actually hear it come out of John Annik or Brandon

838
00:39:15,480 --> 00:39:19,920
Speaker 1: Fitzgerald's mouth. So I believe it is vishe Hos. I

839
00:39:19,920 --> 00:39:21,520
Speaker 1: think that's what they were saying last week. We'll do

840
00:39:21,600 --> 00:39:25,239
Speaker 1: our best to pronounce it that way going forward, But

841
00:39:25,320 --> 00:39:26,880
Speaker 1: for some of these other ones it can be a

842
00:39:26,880 --> 00:39:30,239
Speaker 1: little bit difficult at times, such as EO. I think

843
00:39:30,280 --> 00:39:33,080
Speaker 1: it's Baronesky, but I'm not one hundred percent sure what

844
00:39:33,200 --> 00:39:37,040
Speaker 1: the correct Polish pronunciation is. There. Going to move on

845
00:39:37,080 --> 00:39:39,359
Speaker 1: to my best in final bets here, I'd say one

846
00:39:39,440 --> 00:39:41,000
Speaker 1: is the best bet. One is a final bet. The

847
00:39:41,080 --> 00:39:45,280
Speaker 1: best bet is Luana Carolina about minus one thirty against

848
00:39:45,320 --> 00:39:48,759
Speaker 1: Melissa Mullens at plus one twelve. It's fight heavily juice

849
00:39:48,800 --> 00:39:51,439
Speaker 1: to go to a decision, but Carolina is the much

850
00:39:51,440 --> 00:39:54,160
Speaker 1: better striker, and I think she has enough takedown defense

851
00:39:54,200 --> 00:39:56,759
Speaker 1: to keep this one on the feet and out point

852
00:39:56,840 --> 00:40:00,560
Speaker 1: Mollens if not eventually put her away when she's not

853
00:40:00,640 --> 00:40:02,400
Speaker 1: able to get the takedowns. When she's not able to

854
00:40:02,400 --> 00:40:05,960
Speaker 1: get top position, she's going to look absolutely excuse me,

855
00:40:05,960 --> 00:40:08,480
Speaker 1: She's going to look out class on the feet. So

856
00:40:09,760 --> 00:40:13,800
Speaker 1: pretty binary fight could end up finishing I suppose, considering

857
00:40:13,840 --> 00:40:16,800
Speaker 1: Carolina clearly the better striker, Mullens clearly the better grappler.

858
00:40:16,840 --> 00:40:20,520
Speaker 1: But Mullens is a heavily selected underdog this week. The

859
00:40:20,520 --> 00:40:23,680
Speaker 1: way I build out my projections I've explained over and

860
00:40:23,719 --> 00:40:25,160
Speaker 1: over again, so I'm not going to go through it.

861
00:40:25,200 --> 00:40:28,600
Speaker 1: But Mullens is getting the majority of picks across the

862
00:40:28,600 --> 00:40:32,320
Speaker 1: public data samples this week. She is a very popular underdog,

863
00:40:32,360 --> 00:40:35,520
Speaker 1: and as a result, my model makes Carolina closer to

864
00:40:35,600 --> 00:40:37,520
Speaker 1: minus two hundred and you can get her at a

865
00:40:37,560 --> 00:40:40,200
Speaker 1: round minus one thirty. So she's the best bet for

866
00:40:40,239 --> 00:40:42,680
Speaker 1: me this weekend, first fight on the card. Yet again,

867
00:40:42,719 --> 00:40:44,480
Speaker 1: I don't love making the first fight on the card

868
00:40:44,480 --> 00:40:47,400
Speaker 1: the best bet was not the most fun sweating Pierre

869
00:40:47,480 --> 00:40:52,240
Speaker 1: Rodriguez to start my night last week. Billy, nice cash

870
00:40:52,239 --> 00:40:54,400
Speaker 1: though by both of us on Rodriguez last week. How

871
00:40:54,440 --> 00:40:57,759
Speaker 1: do you feel about Luna Lulana Carolina at minus one

872
00:40:57,840 --> 00:40:59,080
Speaker 1: thirty kicking off this card?

873
00:41:00,120 --> 00:41:03,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, my hope is that we just get some British

874
00:41:03,440 --> 00:41:05,759
Speaker 2: public action that pushed that line a little bit better,

875
00:41:06,000 --> 00:41:08,480
Speaker 2: because it's one of those where systemically, if it's a

876
00:41:08,520 --> 00:41:10,280
Speaker 2: women's fight that we expect to go to a decision.

877
00:41:10,320 --> 00:41:12,120
Speaker 2: I don't love laying juice on it. I know I

878
00:41:12,160 --> 00:41:14,680
Speaker 2: just did with Pierre Rodriguez. I thought she had a

879
00:41:14,719 --> 00:41:17,200
Speaker 2: better shot at finishing that than she did. But yeah,

880
00:41:17,239 --> 00:41:19,719
Speaker 2: I think you're on the right side. Melissa Mullins is

881
00:41:19,760 --> 00:41:24,359
Speaker 2: not especially good really anything, even the grappling. Like, if

882
00:41:24,400 --> 00:41:26,359
Speaker 2: you look at the women she was able to take down,

883
00:41:26,400 --> 00:41:28,040
Speaker 2: I think it says more about them than it does

884
00:41:28,080 --> 00:41:31,799
Speaker 2: against Mullens landed one on Nora Cornell before getting kind

885
00:41:31,800 --> 00:41:33,839
Speaker 2: of badly knocked out with needs to the body, So

886
00:41:34,480 --> 00:41:36,759
Speaker 2: don't have much interest in that one. But I think

887
00:41:36,800 --> 00:41:38,520
Speaker 2: you're on the right side. I will say on the

888
00:41:38,520 --> 00:41:41,560
Speaker 2: topic of best bets to the listening audience, we had

889
00:41:41,600 --> 00:41:44,520
Speaker 2: two joint best bets and we effectively flipped a coin

890
00:41:44,600 --> 00:41:46,800
Speaker 2: for who's going to write out each one. I happened

891
00:41:46,840 --> 00:41:49,200
Speaker 2: to land right and get Pierre Rodriguez, while Sean had

892
00:41:49,239 --> 00:41:51,840
Speaker 2: Bruno Silva. But that was not because you know, I

893
00:41:51,880 --> 00:41:53,680
Speaker 2: picked the better fight. It could have gone either way,

894
00:41:53,760 --> 00:41:57,040
Speaker 2: just so anyone is attributing credit and or blame there

895
00:41:57,080 --> 00:41:58,480
Speaker 2: appropriately across the two of us.

896
00:41:58,760 --> 00:42:01,600
Speaker 1: Bruno Silva also closed, is a huge live favorite in

897
00:42:01,640 --> 00:42:03,920
Speaker 1: that fight and was on the wrong end of somehow

898
00:42:03,920 --> 00:42:06,239
Speaker 1: a thirty twenty seven scorecard.

899
00:42:06,360 --> 00:42:08,680
Speaker 3: We were also robbed. We should say, yeah, a.

900
00:42:08,719 --> 00:42:11,080
Speaker 1: Lot of people thought he won that fight. I'm not

901
00:42:11,120 --> 00:42:13,719
Speaker 1: going to sit here and debate it. You will end up,

902
00:42:13,840 --> 00:42:17,080
Speaker 1: probably in the long run, end up evening out on

903
00:42:17,480 --> 00:42:19,799
Speaker 1: split decisions, even though you will only remember the ones

904
00:42:19,840 --> 00:42:23,120
Speaker 1: that you lose. So it certainly feels like you're on

905
00:42:23,160 --> 00:42:25,000
Speaker 1: the wrong end more than you are on the right end.

906
00:42:25,640 --> 00:42:29,719
Speaker 1: My other sorry to say again, no, I.

907
00:42:29,719 --> 00:42:31,279
Speaker 2: Just said I've never gotten a good one. I've never

908
00:42:31,360 --> 00:42:33,200
Speaker 2: had a close split decision go my way once.

909
00:42:33,280 --> 00:42:36,600
Speaker 1: So yeah, you know, even to your point about laying

910
00:42:36,680 --> 00:42:39,360
Speaker 1: juice on a female fighter in a fight that is

911
00:42:39,440 --> 00:42:42,879
Speaker 1: expected to go to decision, at least this a fight British. Yeah,

912
00:42:43,200 --> 00:42:44,920
Speaker 1: it's not even that. Though at least this fight is

913
00:42:44,960 --> 00:42:48,280
Speaker 1: going to be clear. It's tough to envision an outcome

914
00:42:48,360 --> 00:42:51,799
Speaker 1: where this is like a split right, because they're doing

915
00:42:51,800 --> 00:42:55,239
Speaker 1: completely different things. I mean, I suppose like Arolina could

916
00:42:55,239 --> 00:42:56,960
Speaker 1: beat her up on the fet for four minutes, get

917
00:42:56,960 --> 00:42:59,080
Speaker 1: taken down and a judge is like, hey, I'm giving

918
00:42:59,080 --> 00:43:01,400
Speaker 1: it to the British fighter. But by and large I

919
00:43:01,440 --> 00:43:04,080
Speaker 1: do not expect this to be a difficult fight to judge.

920
00:43:04,120 --> 00:43:06,879
Speaker 1: I think the round should be scored pretty clearly one

921
00:43:06,880 --> 00:43:08,279
Speaker 1: way or the other. We'll see, though. You know, you

922
00:43:08,280 --> 00:43:09,880
Speaker 1: could get two and a half minutes of striking and

923
00:43:09,880 --> 00:43:11,840
Speaker 1: then two and a half minutes a grappling, and it

924
00:43:11,840 --> 00:43:13,880
Speaker 1: does make it difficult. So I don't want to completely

925
00:43:13,920 --> 00:43:16,520
Speaker 1: throw that into the universe, but this does. Among all

926
00:43:16,560 --> 00:43:19,200
Speaker 1: the fights that are lying minus one thirty, I think

927
00:43:19,239 --> 00:43:20,919
Speaker 1: this is one of the ones that is less likely.

928
00:43:20,920 --> 00:43:22,840
Speaker 1: I would say to go to the split decision. I

929
00:43:22,840 --> 00:43:25,640
Speaker 1: am taking another shot though against the British fighter in

930
00:43:25,719 --> 00:43:27,800
Speaker 1: my final bet as well. That's with Los and Kata

931
00:43:28,239 --> 00:43:31,640
Speaker 1: at minus two thirty against Nathaniel Wood at plus two hundred.

932
00:43:31,800 --> 00:43:34,160
Speaker 1: Would's a great fighter, but he's been in a number

933
00:43:34,160 --> 00:43:36,160
Speaker 1: of fights where he gets hurt that have not finished.

934
00:43:36,200 --> 00:43:38,960
Speaker 1: He's been knocked down in several of his fights. He's

935
00:43:39,000 --> 00:43:42,239
Speaker 1: also knocked down several of his opponents without finishing them

936
00:43:42,280 --> 00:43:44,920
Speaker 1: as well. He's extremely due to have one of his

937
00:43:45,000 --> 00:43:48,359
Speaker 1: fights and inside the distance. Kita is an interesting case

938
00:43:48,360 --> 00:43:51,719
Speaker 1: because he was supposed to fight Patricio Pitbull in his

939
00:43:51,840 --> 00:43:54,279
Speaker 1: UFC debut, ended up coming in five pounds overweight. They

940
00:43:54,400 --> 00:43:59,040
Speaker 1: ended up canceling that bout. He's the former Octagon FC

941
00:43:59,239 --> 00:44:03,439
Speaker 1: champion over in Czech Republic. He's bigger than Nathaniel Wood

942
00:44:03,520 --> 00:44:05,600
Speaker 1: woulds a former BANDM weight, but he's an inch taller

943
00:44:05,880 --> 00:44:08,560
Speaker 1: has a three inch each advantage. Not really sure how

944
00:44:08,560 --> 00:44:10,400
Speaker 1: this weight cut is going to go since it didn't

945
00:44:10,400 --> 00:44:12,440
Speaker 1: go well the first time. But if it does go okay,

946
00:44:13,080 --> 00:44:15,040
Speaker 1: I think he's going to hurt Wood, and I think

947
00:44:15,040 --> 00:44:16,920
Speaker 1: he's going to finish him. I make the line for

948
00:44:17,040 --> 00:44:19,719
Speaker 1: Kita about minus two seventy five. You can bet him

949
00:44:19,719 --> 00:44:22,360
Speaker 1: at minus two thirty. There's certainly an edge there, and

950
00:44:22,400 --> 00:44:25,800
Speaker 1: then I make his knockout prop about plus one seventy

951
00:44:25,840 --> 00:44:28,839
Speaker 1: and his inside the distance line about plus one forty.

952
00:44:28,880 --> 00:44:31,680
Speaker 1: I don't think there's necessarily edges or big edges on

953
00:44:31,760 --> 00:44:33,759
Speaker 1: those numbers. I think I'm pretty closely aligned with the

954
00:44:33,760 --> 00:44:36,120
Speaker 1: market on the finish props, but I do like him

955
00:44:36,160 --> 00:44:38,960
Speaker 1: as a bet this weekend up to about minus two

956
00:44:39,120 --> 00:44:41,400
Speaker 1: fifty on the money line. We'll see if I ended

957
00:44:41,440 --> 00:44:43,799
Speaker 1: up parlaying that with something or pairing it with something,

958
00:44:43,960 --> 00:44:47,839
Speaker 1: or just playing the finish props for Kita against Nathaniel Wood,

959
00:44:47,840 --> 00:44:50,000
Speaker 1: a fighter, as I've said, who is more than two

960
00:44:50,400 --> 00:44:52,440
Speaker 1: to have one of his fights and inside the distance,

961
00:44:52,440 --> 00:44:54,160
Speaker 1: I don't think I project value on the under thout.

962
00:44:54,160 --> 00:44:56,600
Speaker 1: Billy was saying, Kata against Nathaniel Wood, What did you

963
00:44:56,600 --> 00:44:59,560
Speaker 1: think about Kita the tape you've seen. What were your

964
00:44:59,560 --> 00:45:02,239
Speaker 1: thoughts before that fight against Pipple, because I think I

965
00:45:02,280 --> 00:45:05,560
Speaker 1: had him finishing Pipple in that matchup before it get canceled.

966
00:45:05,920 --> 00:45:07,759
Speaker 1: And then any bets or thoughts you have for this fight.

967
00:45:08,640 --> 00:45:10,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm gonna ignore most of your questions and respond

968
00:45:10,840 --> 00:45:13,200
Speaker 2: to the question of your to you do you know less?

969
00:45:13,320 --> 00:45:19,000
Speaker 2: And Kaita's nickname black Panther and Curtis Campbell is pink panther.

970
00:45:19,520 --> 00:45:22,040
Speaker 2: Panther parlay, Baby, we got to do the panther parlay.

971
00:45:22,080 --> 00:45:24,040
Speaker 2: You just said you might parlay or pair him with

972
00:45:24,040 --> 00:45:27,160
Speaker 2: something else. The panther parlay is right there. I was

973
00:45:27,200 --> 00:45:30,080
Speaker 2: already on Curtis Campbell, you like los Kita fire it

974
00:45:30,120 --> 00:45:32,120
Speaker 2: out therein Oh No, they're not back to back fights.

975
00:45:32,120 --> 00:45:36,240
Speaker 2: Mason Jones and Axel Sola are unfortunately interrupting the Panthers.

976
00:45:36,600 --> 00:45:39,879
Speaker 2: But yeah, that's you can't not take that right. I mean,

977
00:45:40,040 --> 00:45:42,359
Speaker 2: it's right there for the taking. We like them, both

978
00:45:42,640 --> 00:45:44,719
Speaker 2: both solid favorites, both of had a ton of line

979
00:45:44,760 --> 00:45:47,680
Speaker 2: movement their way. We're riding with the markets Panther parlay.

980
00:45:48,480 --> 00:45:49,600
Speaker 2: That's all I have to say about that.

981
00:45:49,640 --> 00:45:52,239
Speaker 1: They're both both basically the same price as wlid about

982
00:45:52,280 --> 00:45:54,920
Speaker 1: minus two thirty. You pair those together, you get to

983
00:45:55,120 --> 00:45:58,200
Speaker 1: plus one oh six if you like the beautiful parlay

984
00:45:58,200 --> 00:45:59,759
Speaker 1: this week. And as I said, I do like Dandy

985
00:45:59,800 --> 00:46:02,920
Speaker 1: sil a little bit. I was actually considering like a

986
00:46:02,960 --> 00:46:04,840
Speaker 1: Soba plus three and a half plays. I don't I

987
00:46:04,880 --> 00:46:08,320
Speaker 1: don't want to filly rain on your Panther parlay parade,

988
00:46:08,360 --> 00:46:11,480
Speaker 1: but I would not blame anybody for taking that bet.

989
00:46:11,600 --> 00:46:14,480
Speaker 1: It's just electric. How could you not like the Panther parlay.

990
00:46:14,560 --> 00:46:16,640
Speaker 1: My high school mascot also the Panthers.

991
00:46:16,680 --> 00:46:17,520
Speaker 3: So oh, come on.

992
00:46:18,800 --> 00:46:21,960
Speaker 1: I know when I was in when I was in

993
00:46:22,040 --> 00:46:24,399
Speaker 1: elementary school because it was a private school, went there

994
00:46:24,440 --> 00:46:26,319
Speaker 1: since I was like a young kid all the way

995
00:46:26,360 --> 00:46:30,440
Speaker 1: through senior year when I was young. Their mascot was

996
00:46:30,480 --> 00:46:34,360
Speaker 1: the Pink Panthers, and they whoever took over the school,

997
00:46:34,440 --> 00:46:37,400
Speaker 1: was like, absolutely not. We're getting mercilessly made fun of

998
00:46:38,040 --> 00:46:40,520
Speaker 1: on the field in every game we play. So they

999
00:46:40,600 --> 00:46:42,560
Speaker 1: ended up changing it to just the Panthers, and they

1000
00:46:42,600 --> 00:46:47,080
Speaker 1: made the panther like royal blue, which I don't think

1001
00:46:47,080 --> 00:46:49,920
Speaker 1: that's a panther color either necessarily, but at least it

1002
00:46:50,000 --> 00:46:53,040
Speaker 1: wasn't the pink Panthers. By the time I got to

1003
00:46:53,160 --> 00:46:55,040
Speaker 1: you know what, I think, I'm actually now that I'm

1004
00:46:55,080 --> 00:46:58,560
Speaker 1: realizing it, from a legal perspective, they may have been

1005
00:46:59,320 --> 00:47:03,359
Speaker 1: potentially to a legal action take They were very much

1006
00:47:03,440 --> 00:47:06,760
Speaker 1: ripping off the pink Panther. Yeah, the Pink Panther cartoon designed,

1007
00:47:06,800 --> 00:47:08,839
Speaker 1: so it might have been a legal issue that caused

1008
00:47:08,880 --> 00:47:11,560
Speaker 1: them to change it. But all of that is to say,

1009
00:47:12,480 --> 00:47:14,719
Speaker 1: I don't think I can bet on Danny Silva or

1010
00:47:14,800 --> 00:47:18,279
Speaker 1: go against the panther partlay this weekend. So you won't

1011
00:47:18,280 --> 00:47:20,479
Speaker 1: find a bet on silver for me. You may find

1012
00:47:20,480 --> 00:47:24,160
Speaker 1: a bet unlistening katea paired with somebody, but maybe not

1013
00:47:24,760 --> 00:47:26,719
Speaker 1: the pink Panther. I'll see what I end up doing.

1014
00:47:27,320 --> 00:47:29,719
Speaker 1: The other couple fights that we did not get to,

1015
00:47:29,920 --> 00:47:31,560
Speaker 1: I think there's two or three fights we didn't get

1016
00:47:31,560 --> 00:47:33,160
Speaker 1: to you in this card. One of them is a

1017
00:47:33,239 --> 00:47:37,520
Speaker 1: huge favorite, Mario Pinto against Felipe Franco. Franco is a

1018
00:47:37,560 --> 00:47:41,880
Speaker 1: short notice replacement for Mick Parkin Franco ten at all,

1019
00:47:41,960 --> 00:47:46,000
Speaker 1: all of his finishes in round one hasn't necessarily fought

1020
00:47:46,400 --> 00:47:50,279
Speaker 1: any real competition, though he's four inches taller has a

1021
00:47:50,320 --> 00:47:52,960
Speaker 1: three inch reach advantage. Any bets for you on the

1022
00:47:53,000 --> 00:47:56,040
Speaker 1: biggest favorite on the card, Billy No.

1023
00:47:56,239 --> 00:47:58,799
Speaker 2: Again, these are where I feel like DF hasn't the

1024
00:47:58,840 --> 00:48:01,759
Speaker 2: better way to play it. Actually, there's a bunch of

1025
00:48:01,760 --> 00:48:04,120
Speaker 2: super expensive guys because there are all these huge favorites.

1026
00:48:04,560 --> 00:48:08,560
Speaker 2: There's three fighters like minus six hundred or longer, all

1027
00:48:08,600 --> 00:48:10,520
Speaker 2: of which in fights that are minus six hundred or

1028
00:48:10,520 --> 00:48:14,280
Speaker 2: longer than inside the distance that'd be Pinto, Mantis Contra

1029
00:48:14,480 --> 00:48:16,920
Speaker 2: Deficius that we're going to talk about in.

1030
00:48:16,920 --> 00:48:20,640
Speaker 1: The second pronunciations. You did your best run.

1031
00:48:20,640 --> 00:48:23,640
Speaker 2: Name and then also Ebo, who we discussed earlier. You're

1032
00:48:23,680 --> 00:48:26,000
Speaker 2: kind of you can get two of those three fairly

1033
00:48:26,040 --> 00:48:28,960
Speaker 2: easily with some of the chief fighters we'd like for dfs,

1034
00:48:29,000 --> 00:48:32,120
Speaker 2: which two is tricky. Mantis has the best first round odds,

1035
00:48:32,160 --> 00:48:33,560
Speaker 2: and at these price points, you kind of need a

1036
00:48:33,600 --> 00:48:36,239
Speaker 2: first front stoppage or a ton of takedowns. I don't

1037
00:48:36,280 --> 00:48:37,719
Speaker 2: think any of these guys are going to get like,

1038
00:48:38,360 --> 00:48:41,840
Speaker 2: you know, Morob style or mctebec oral By. I know

1039
00:48:41,880 --> 00:48:44,440
Speaker 2: I'm saying that one right, Oh yeah, you know that style.

1040
00:48:44,520 --> 00:48:47,040
Speaker 2: Double digit takedowns, I will say as ant aside, I

1041
00:48:47,080 --> 00:48:49,120
Speaker 2: saw announcers in my fight career go up to a

1042
00:48:49,160 --> 00:48:51,080
Speaker 2: lot of fighters and do the whole like, how do

1043
00:48:51,120 --> 00:48:51,640
Speaker 2: you say your name?

1044
00:48:51,719 --> 00:48:51,839
Speaker 3: Dan?

1045
00:48:52,360 --> 00:48:54,959
Speaker 2: None of them ever asked me. It never came up once.

1046
00:48:55,880 --> 00:48:57,400
Speaker 2: Made me a little bit sad, but they all they

1047
00:48:57,440 --> 00:49:00,279
Speaker 2: all got it right just on site. So were gonna

1048
00:49:00,280 --> 00:49:01,160
Speaker 2: need to get the story of it.

1049
00:49:01,680 --> 00:49:03,279
Speaker 1: We're gonna need to get the story of how you

1050
00:49:03,320 --> 00:49:05,920
Speaker 1: got your psycho nickname at one point on the podcast.

1051
00:49:05,960 --> 00:49:08,680
Speaker 1: Not not gonna ask yet, we're gonna say it. We'll

1052
00:49:08,800 --> 00:49:10,920
Speaker 1: save it for a bigger podcast with a bigger audience

1053
00:49:10,960 --> 00:49:13,799
Speaker 1: to make sure that's properly told, because I'm curious I've

1054
00:49:13,840 --> 00:49:17,359
Speaker 1: never actually asked you. You did for some reason throwing

1055
00:49:17,400 --> 00:49:19,719
Speaker 1: mirrorback oral By's name, I think just the flex on

1056
00:49:19,719 --> 00:49:22,480
Speaker 1: on the audience and on me and leave me to

1057
00:49:22,560 --> 00:49:28,400
Speaker 1: say Montas Contravisius try against Antonio Tricoli. This Weekend. I

1058
00:49:28,680 --> 00:49:31,480
Speaker 1: think it's controvisious. I would I would love if this

1059
00:49:31,560 --> 00:49:35,399
Speaker 1: guy got with Jasmine Jessudavicius and then she married him

1060
00:49:35,400 --> 00:49:38,080
Speaker 1: and hyphenated her last name. If you just said a

1061
00:49:38,160 --> 00:49:42,720
Speaker 1: vicious Controversius, that would just be elite for Bruce Buffer

1062
00:49:42,760 --> 00:49:45,120
Speaker 1: to have to pronounce before one of her fights. But

1063
00:49:45,200 --> 00:49:49,560
Speaker 1: Contravisius is nine years younger. It's a very good kickboxer.

1064
00:49:49,719 --> 00:49:52,359
Speaker 1: One on Contender series as a slate underdogs. Not really

1065
00:49:52,360 --> 00:49:54,759
Speaker 1: sure how to judge his level. I'm curious what your

1066
00:49:54,760 --> 00:49:57,719
Speaker 1: thoughts on him, how you bet him in that fight,

1067
00:49:57,760 --> 00:50:00,400
Speaker 1: what your thoughts on him are as a pro suspect,

1068
00:50:01,320 --> 00:50:04,319
Speaker 1: not really sure if Tracoli is training. He seems more

1069
00:50:04,360 --> 00:50:07,800
Speaker 1: focused on his poker career than he does his fight career.

1070
00:50:08,120 --> 00:50:10,360
Speaker 1: You'll probably see him at the next World Series of Poker,

1071
00:50:10,760 --> 00:50:13,080
Speaker 1: so he may just be showing up here for a

1072
00:50:13,080 --> 00:50:15,440
Speaker 1: paycheck and for a buy in for his next tournament.

1073
00:50:15,600 --> 00:50:17,480
Speaker 1: He's the bigger man, though, three ches taller, a five

1074
00:50:17,520 --> 00:50:21,040
Speaker 1: inch reach advantage. Billy Controversio is a minus seven to

1075
00:50:21,040 --> 00:50:23,960
Speaker 1: seventy favorite. Any bets or thoughts for you on this

1076
00:50:24,040 --> 00:50:28,520
Speaker 1: fight aside from a quick, controversious finish, Yeah.

1077
00:50:28,320 --> 00:50:31,239
Speaker 2: I'm trying to see how I had that actually picked

1078
00:50:31,239 --> 00:50:34,200
Speaker 2: against him based on his what I saw at the

1079
00:50:34,239 --> 00:50:37,319
Speaker 2: time not great grappling going into his Contender Series fight.

1080
00:50:37,719 --> 00:50:40,040
Speaker 2: But since then he competed in a professional grappling match

1081
00:50:40,080 --> 00:50:42,359
Speaker 2: that he won, so that's a good sign he's looking

1082
00:50:42,360 --> 00:50:45,280
Speaker 2: to expand his game and Crow. And don't why chocoally

1083
00:50:45,320 --> 00:50:47,399
Speaker 2: got another fight. He's zero and three with three first

1084
00:50:47,480 --> 00:50:49,840
Speaker 2: round finishers or three finish losses. I don't know if

1085
00:50:49,840 --> 00:50:51,600
Speaker 2: they were all first round off the top of my head,

1086
00:50:52,360 --> 00:50:55,040
Speaker 2: and uh yeah, they're giving him another fight for some reason.

1087
00:50:55,120 --> 00:50:57,359
Speaker 2: I don't really know why, but it's probably to make

1088
00:50:57,440 --> 00:51:00,480
Speaker 2: Mantis look good. So you know, do with that information

1089
00:51:00,560 --> 00:51:02,480
Speaker 2: what you will. But I think the UFC is setting

1090
00:51:02,480 --> 00:51:05,520
Speaker 2: this up for a reason, and I also think Mantis

1091
00:51:05,560 --> 00:51:09,360
Speaker 2: of the heavy favorites, it's probably my favorite DFS option,

1092
00:51:09,800 --> 00:51:11,959
Speaker 2: although I will be mixing and matching the three of them,

1093
00:51:12,480 --> 00:51:15,040
Speaker 2: all with difficult to pronounce names.

1094
00:51:15,520 --> 00:51:15,719
Speaker 3: Yeah.

1095
00:51:15,800 --> 00:51:19,200
Speaker 1: Tricoli also lost his Contender Series about as well. It

1096
00:51:19,239 --> 00:51:23,920
Speaker 1: was overturning with no contest. I apologize there. She failed

1097
00:51:23,920 --> 00:51:26,200
Speaker 1: a drug test, so he won. He won on Contender

1098
00:51:26,280 --> 00:51:30,760
Speaker 1: Stories trailed for Nandro and then has gotten three UFC

1099
00:51:30,800 --> 00:51:33,239
Speaker 1: fights lost to share a bullet in round three. I

1100
00:51:33,239 --> 00:51:36,280
Speaker 1: think that fight was actually more competitive than you remember

1101
00:51:36,520 --> 00:51:39,239
Speaker 1: for the first couple of rounds. Choked out by Treyshawn Gore.

1102
00:51:39,680 --> 00:51:41,719
Speaker 1: He is standing guillotine in round one and then again

1103
00:51:41,840 --> 00:51:44,919
Speaker 1: by Monster of Duma Leak standy guillotine. His last two

1104
00:51:44,960 --> 00:51:49,000
Speaker 1: losses so very bad sign an indicator that this dude.

1105
00:51:50,320 --> 00:51:54,239
Speaker 1: I don't want to insinuate anything, and this is purely speculation,

1106
00:51:55,040 --> 00:51:57,080
Speaker 1: but if I had to guess a dude losing by

1107
00:51:57,160 --> 00:51:59,800
Speaker 1: round one submission twice in a row who is a

1108
00:52:00,000 --> 00:52:04,000
Speaker 1: professional gambler on the outside, may have some influence as

1109
00:52:04,040 --> 00:52:08,000
Speaker 1: to how that result ended up. Standing guillotine is super suspicious.

1110
00:52:08,000 --> 00:52:10,319
Speaker 1: Two in a row is a red flag. But we're

1111
00:52:10,320 --> 00:52:13,879
Speaker 1: gonna move on from Tracoli down to the last fight

1112
00:52:13,920 --> 00:52:15,640
Speaker 1: on the card we did not cover. This is one

1113
00:52:15,640 --> 00:52:17,720
Speaker 1: of the best fights on the card. I'm curious abillity

1114
00:52:17,719 --> 00:52:20,960
Speaker 1: as any takes on this. That's abdual Kareem also Wati

1115
00:52:21,080 --> 00:52:24,320
Speaker 1: against Shemrock. Also Wadi about minus one twenty five Shmrock

1116
00:52:24,840 --> 00:52:28,359
Speaker 1: plus one oh five. Rock is thirty two years old,

1117
00:52:29,360 --> 00:52:33,280
Speaker 1: very bad striking defense. I think El Solwati has better

1118
00:52:33,320 --> 00:52:36,040
Speaker 1: striking defense, but a worse chin. So if these two

1119
00:52:36,120 --> 00:52:38,319
Speaker 1: end up browling it out, I think they're both going

1120
00:52:38,360 --> 00:52:40,279
Speaker 1: to take a ton of damage. I could see either

1121
00:52:40,400 --> 00:52:43,359
Speaker 1: falling via strikes as a result. I think the line

1122
00:52:43,400 --> 00:52:46,680
Speaker 1: being around to pick them is right. My model does

1123
00:52:46,760 --> 00:52:48,360
Speaker 1: like El sol Wati, but if I was picking a

1124
00:52:48,400 --> 00:52:50,680
Speaker 1: sideed be Shemrock and I think my approach here is

1125
00:52:50,719 --> 00:52:53,880
Speaker 1: to bet Shemrock Live. I think he has the better cardio,

1126
00:52:54,000 --> 00:52:56,440
Speaker 1: He's going to be the guy pressuring, he's the bigger man,

1127
00:52:56,520 --> 00:52:59,080
Speaker 1: threeches taller, FOURGN treat advantage, and I think he's eventually

1128
00:52:59,120 --> 00:53:02,200
Speaker 1: going to wear on El Sawati as we get deeper

1129
00:53:02,200 --> 00:53:05,239
Speaker 1: into the fight. So Shemrock Live after round one. My

1130
00:53:05,280 --> 00:53:07,520
Speaker 1: approach here might maybe even his round two, round three

1131
00:53:07,520 --> 00:53:11,640
Speaker 1: props could be a look as well. Billy Shimrock, abdul

1132
00:53:11,680 --> 00:53:14,680
Speaker 1: Kareem al Sawatti. Any thoughts or bets for you on

1133
00:53:14,719 --> 00:53:16,040
Speaker 1: our fourteenth and final fight.

1134
00:53:16,600 --> 00:53:19,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, I was tempted to do a full fight preview

1135
00:53:19,040 --> 00:53:21,719
Speaker 2: with this one, but Alsawadi has had one UFC fight.

1136
00:53:21,840 --> 00:53:25,239
Speaker 2: It was March of twenty twenty four, and outside of

1137
00:53:25,239 --> 00:53:27,200
Speaker 2: a grappling match in May of twenty twenty four, hasn't

1138
00:53:27,200 --> 00:53:29,600
Speaker 2: competed in anything, and that makes it really hard to

1139
00:53:29,640 --> 00:53:33,239
Speaker 2: do like a technique in style breakdown, because a lot

1140
00:53:33,400 --> 00:53:36,080
Speaker 2: could have changed in those two years. We don't really

1141
00:53:36,120 --> 00:53:38,520
Speaker 2: know what those injuries were, what's happening, So I am

1142
00:53:38,520 --> 00:53:40,840
Speaker 2: basically fading that one. But I do like your ankle

1143
00:53:40,840 --> 00:53:43,200
Speaker 2: on it before we get out of it. Before we get out,

1144
00:53:43,360 --> 00:53:45,200
Speaker 2: I was just say before we go to your note.

1145
00:53:45,760 --> 00:53:48,440
Speaker 2: Quick note from producer David Payne in the chat, his

1146
00:53:48,560 --> 00:53:51,480
Speaker 2: high school nickname was also the Panthers, So the Panther

1147
00:53:51,560 --> 00:53:55,200
Speaker 2: parlay is growing stronger. I'm guessing David already has a

1148
00:53:55,200 --> 00:53:57,560
Speaker 2: bet on the Panther parlay if I was a betting

1149
00:53:57,600 --> 00:54:00,600
Speaker 2: man on his bet. We were the Cavalier and we

1150
00:54:00,680 --> 00:54:04,080
Speaker 2: attempted to use the Cleveland Cavalier's logo before also getting

1151
00:54:04,080 --> 00:54:05,880
Speaker 2: a CE some desist letter and having to change it

1152
00:54:05,920 --> 00:54:09,279
Speaker 2: to a generic one. So your story resonated with me.

1153
00:54:10,200 --> 00:54:13,120
Speaker 1: It seems like a common occurrence for high schools in

1154
00:54:13,160 --> 00:54:17,480
Speaker 1: the time. We're all in our mid to late thirties here,

1155
00:54:17,520 --> 00:54:19,680
Speaker 1: in the time that the Internet came about, and it

1156
00:54:19,760 --> 00:54:23,359
Speaker 1: seems like colleges and other companies were able to do

1157
00:54:23,480 --> 00:54:27,200
Speaker 1: research and find out that other people were appropriating their logo.

1158
00:54:27,400 --> 00:54:29,960
Speaker 1: It seems like all of our schools potentially got sued

1159
00:54:30,320 --> 00:54:33,360
Speaker 1: or hit with the season. Desist to break up that

1160
00:54:33,480 --> 00:54:36,920
Speaker 1: ip for you out of here, Billy, speaking of schools,

1161
00:54:37,040 --> 00:54:41,560
Speaker 1: speaking of nicknames and school mascots. NCAA tournament did begin today,

1162
00:54:42,120 --> 00:54:44,480
Speaker 1: and although the listeners for this episode, I'm sure here

1163
00:54:44,480 --> 00:54:47,440
Speaker 1: for UFC picks, just want to make sure our official

1164
00:54:47,520 --> 00:54:49,719
Speaker 1: March Madness picks are on tape. That way, if we

1165
00:54:49,800 --> 00:54:51,640
Speaker 1: end up picking the winner, if we pick our final

1166
00:54:51,640 --> 00:54:54,120
Speaker 1: four correctly, we have it on tape. We could end

1167
00:54:54,200 --> 00:54:56,600
Speaker 1: up cutting it up and demanding that our social teams

1168
00:54:56,640 --> 00:54:59,680
Speaker 1: put it on social media. So, Billy, no handicapper analysis

1169
00:54:59,680 --> 00:55:01,000
Speaker 1: require who do you have winning?

1170
00:55:01,000 --> 00:55:03,239
Speaker 2: And all this year I've been informed that it is

1171
00:55:03,320 --> 00:55:06,800
Speaker 2: possible to have a Michigan Michigan State college basketball final.

1172
00:55:07,160 --> 00:55:09,440
Speaker 2: I'm going to take Michigan who I've also been informed

1173
00:55:09,440 --> 00:55:12,040
Speaker 2: as a one seed to win that over Michigan State.

1174
00:55:12,080 --> 00:55:14,160
Speaker 2: I was more of a UFM fan growing up in the

1175
00:55:14,120 --> 00:55:17,080
Speaker 2: Michigan State, although I find it disingenuous for people in

1176
00:55:17,080 --> 00:55:19,640
Speaker 2: Michigan who went to neither school to say us and

1177
00:55:19,680 --> 00:55:22,839
Speaker 2: we about one of them and not the other. So yeah,

1178
00:55:22,920 --> 00:55:26,280
Speaker 2: I guess, go Blue, I guess, but all Michigan finals

1179
00:55:26,320 --> 00:55:27,320
Speaker 2: really what I'm reading.

1180
00:55:27,080 --> 00:55:29,680
Speaker 1: For neutral observer, I feel like I've always been on

1181
00:55:29,719 --> 00:55:32,239
Speaker 1: the Michigan side of the Michigan Ohio state rivalry, but

1182
00:55:32,280 --> 00:55:35,440
Speaker 1: I'm actually more towards the Michigan state side of the

1183
00:55:35,440 --> 00:55:38,480
Speaker 1: Michigan state. That's fair Michigan rivalry. I think it's just

1184
00:55:38,520 --> 00:55:40,120
Speaker 1: the I think it's the nickname. I think it's the

1185
00:55:40,160 --> 00:55:42,680
Speaker 1: Spartans like the Colors. I think they just appeal to

1186
00:55:42,680 --> 00:55:45,040
Speaker 1: me a little bit more. Obviously, Michigan has the better

1187
00:55:45,080 --> 00:55:47,719
Speaker 1: football helmets, but I am picking Michigan to win the

1188
00:55:47,719 --> 00:55:50,000
Speaker 1: tournament as well. I have them beating Duke in the

1189
00:55:50,080 --> 00:55:53,240
Speaker 1: final for Doue in Illinois where my other final four teams.

1190
00:55:53,280 --> 00:55:57,160
Speaker 1: So my final four usually adds up to seven in

1191
00:55:57,239 --> 00:55:59,120
Speaker 1: terms of the seeds. I think that is the average

1192
00:55:59,120 --> 00:56:02,960
Speaker 1: over time of the seed rankings, they usually add up

1193
00:56:03,000 --> 00:56:05,360
Speaker 1: to seven on average. So I usually picked two to ones,

1194
00:56:05,960 --> 00:56:07,880
Speaker 1: two ou of three in my final four, and I

1195
00:56:07,920 --> 00:56:11,080
Speaker 1: have Michigan over Duke in a very chalky final. Even

1196
00:56:11,120 --> 00:56:15,320
Speaker 1: though Duke was down at halftime today did end up rallying,

1197
00:56:15,400 --> 00:56:17,960
Speaker 1: and I think they're gonna obviously play better the remainder

1198
00:56:17,960 --> 00:56:21,360
Speaker 1: of the tournament, but hopefully we get some underdogs to

1199
00:56:21,400 --> 00:56:24,200
Speaker 1: make March Madness interesting, and hopefully some underdogs start cashing

1200
00:56:24,280 --> 00:56:26,719
Speaker 1: in the octagon because it has been a favorite every year.

1201
00:56:27,160 --> 00:56:30,320
Speaker 1: Favorites are absolutely crushing. If you bet every underdog blind,

1202
00:56:30,680 --> 00:56:32,080
Speaker 1: you would be down a ton of money. If you

1203
00:56:32,120 --> 00:56:34,839
Speaker 1: bet every favorite blind, I believe you would be profitable

1204
00:56:35,239 --> 00:56:37,719
Speaker 1: to this point in year. So expecting some regression, but

1205
00:56:37,760 --> 00:56:39,520
Speaker 1: that'll do it for a UFC betting preview. You can

1206
00:56:39,560 --> 00:56:42,200
Speaker 1: find more USC betting content both from Billy and myself

1207
00:56:42,760 --> 00:56:44,960
Speaker 1: on Action network dot com and in the Action Network AP.

1208
00:56:45,200 --> 00:56:46,600
Speaker 1: And if you'd like to instantly tell some of the

1209
00:56:46,640 --> 00:56:48,800
Speaker 1: bets that we discussed on today's show, make sure to

1210
00:56:48,840 --> 00:56:50,560
Speaker 1: look for the quick sip links both in the podcast

1211
00:56:50,640 --> 00:56:55,040
Speaker 1: and video description, or visit actionework dot com slash bet now.

1212
00:56:55,440 --> 00:56:57,960
Speaker 1: Don't forget to download the free award winning Actionwork AAP

1213
00:56:57,960 --> 00:56:59,840
Speaker 1: and sign up for Action Pro for media access to

1214
00:56:59,840 --> 00:57:02,800
Speaker 1: all all expert picks and analysis. Best of luck with

1215
00:57:02,840 --> 00:57:05,560
Speaker 1: your beats this weekend, enjoy my linds, Thank you for listening,

1216
00:57:05,719 --> 00:57:06,680
Speaker 1: see you back for next week.

1217
00:57:15,000 --> 00:57:18,440
Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

1218
00:57:18,840 --> 00:57:21,680
Speaker 1: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem.

1219
00:57:21,960 --> 00:57:24,600
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1220
00:57:24,680 --> 00:57:25,480
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