WEBVTT - Fund Steers HBCU Endowments Into VC

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanovk. We're here every day bringing

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<v Speaker 1>you the latest news from the world to business and finance,

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<v Speaker 1>plus technology, politics, economics, all parnessing the power of Business

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<v Speaker 1>Week reporters and editors, not to mention our journalists and

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<v Speaker 1>analyst in more than one twenty countries. You can download

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Business Weekend iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot Com. You

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<v Speaker 1>can also listen to our radio show at two pm

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<v Speaker 1>Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio or watch us on YouTube

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<v Speaker 1>search Bloomberg Global News. So Tim got to say a

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<v Speaker 1>favorite event where we get to check in with what's

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<v Speaker 1>on the minds of investment professionals, the trends they care about,

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<v Speaker 1>that their clients want to know about, the voices they

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<v Speaker 1>want to hear from, and just kind of how to

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<v Speaker 1>get it all done. It usually happens at the annual

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<v Speaker 1>bny Mail and Pershing Inside event. It's being held virtual

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<v Speaker 1>this year, getting underway next Tuesday. So great to have

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<v Speaker 1>with us and to be talking again with B and

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<v Speaker 1>Y Mail and Pershing's CEO Jim Crowley. He's with us

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<v Speaker 1>on the phone in New Jersey. Also with us is

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<v Speaker 1>the company CEO, Emily Schlosser. She's on the phone in

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<v Speaker 1>New York City, Jim, Emily, great to have you here

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<v Speaker 1>with Tim and myself. Jim, I want to kick it

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<v Speaker 1>off with you. How are you and what's the past

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<v Speaker 1>year been like for you folks? Well, Carol, Tim, first,

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<v Speaker 1>thanks for having us. It's a great pleasure to be back,

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<v Speaker 1>and wish we were in person. It has been yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>well two will be there. Um, it has been. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>obviously the last fifteen months fifteen months have been quite

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<v Speaker 1>a challenge, and you know, two priorities really. First was

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<v Speaker 1>obviously the safeguarding, you know, the health and the well

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<v Speaker 1>being of all of our people. That was priority one.

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<v Speaker 1>And then, you know, the second thing, Carol, that really

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<v Speaker 1>became clear to us is that there really is no

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<v Speaker 1>substitute for business continuity planning and testing of your business

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<v Speaker 1>continuity processing. Because it became clear in March when we

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<v Speaker 1>left the office on March thirteenth, literally overnight, we were

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<v Speaker 1>virtual working from home, and thankfully we didn't miss a

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<v Speaker 1>true what was really tremendous volume and volatility. Emily, come

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<v Speaker 1>on in here and talk a little bit about what

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<v Speaker 1>it's been like for you as as chief operating officer. UM,

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<v Speaker 1>what are the changes that you've made and how are

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<v Speaker 1>you thinking that some of those changes are going to

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<v Speaker 1>be permanent on the other side of this, Thanks him, Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>and thanks thanks to bilth to you for having us. Uh,

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<v Speaker 1>it's been it's been quite a ride. As Jim pointed out,

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<v Speaker 1>So I joined the company as chief operating officer last

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<v Speaker 1>July in a fully virtual environment, which is interesting. UM.

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<v Speaker 1>I did have the privilege of meeting Jim briefly before

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<v Speaker 1>I started, but otherwise I've worked largely for the last

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<v Speaker 1>year virtually with all of my new colleagues. UM. But

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<v Speaker 1>it's been great. Like we we have adopted very quickly

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<v Speaker 1>to the virtual environment, UH, and we are thinking very

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<v Speaker 1>carefully about what does this mean for the future. And

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<v Speaker 1>I think we're you know, we're seeing employees that are

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<v Speaker 1>really getting accustomed to working from home and having that flexibility,

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<v Speaker 1>and then also people who are a chained to get

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<v Speaker 1>back in and and interact with people in person. So

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<v Speaker 1>we're looking at options for how we continue with a

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<v Speaker 1>hybrid work environment to achieve both of those needs, while

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<v Speaker 1>you know, building the best environment to serve our clients.

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<v Speaker 1>I just want to dive right into that because men

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<v Speaker 1>Tim and I every day there are stories on the Bloomberg,

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<v Speaker 1>especially within the financial community, that you are seeing a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of. It feels like we've got to be back

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<v Speaker 1>in the office. Uh. And it feels like the tone

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<v Speaker 1>of the conversation Jim has changed a little bit from

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<v Speaker 1>maybe a year ago we were like, well, maybe this

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<v Speaker 1>hybrid stuff makes sense. Remember James Gorman thinking about maybe

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<v Speaker 1>we give up some real estate space um to where

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<v Speaker 1>everybody now says, way, we got to be back in

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<v Speaker 1>the in the environment your financial community, you guys are

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<v Speaker 1>working with folks that are dealing with you know, millions

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<v Speaker 1>and millions of investor accounts globally on a daily basis.

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<v Speaker 1>What are they saying? Are they hybrid or they back

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<v Speaker 1>in the office? What what do they anticipate? Well, many

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<v Speaker 1>of our clients, Carol, are back in the office. I

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<v Speaker 1>can't say though, that there is any one client that

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<v Speaker 1>is back in the office full time UM with their

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<v Speaker 1>full staff. I think most people are still sort of

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<v Speaker 1>working through this environment and trying to figure out how

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<v Speaker 1>to be hybrid. Who really is essential in office and

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<v Speaker 1>who really isn't necessary to be an office. And in fact,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, for our clients, the most important thing for

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<v Speaker 1>them is being in front of investors, being in front

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<v Speaker 1>of their clients. And that's a lot more virtual going

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<v Speaker 1>on with that, and people are clients comfortable with that, Jim,

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<v Speaker 1>much more virtual though, I have to say though, clients,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, particularly when you're talking about their investments and

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<v Speaker 1>their life planning, they really do want to have a

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<v Speaker 1>personal relationship. And having a personal relationship through a WebEx

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<v Speaker 1>serve any other sort of form of video conferencing isn't

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<v Speaker 1>the same as sitting across the table or meeting in

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<v Speaker 1>the restaurant. And you know, I've actually myself and Emily

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<v Speaker 1>we've been on a couple of business trips now where

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<v Speaker 1>we've actually met with clients in offices and it's it's

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<v Speaker 1>the energy so much better and the opportunity to communicate

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<v Speaker 1>clearly and sort of get a sense for what the

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<v Speaker 1>other person is feeling and thinking. It's much more valuable. Suddenly.

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<v Speaker 1>What does that mean for well, yeah, jumping jump in,

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<v Speaker 1>go ahead now, I was just gonna say, and we

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<v Speaker 1>have seen their investors coming in and out of their

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<v Speaker 1>their offices to write, so so we are seeing that

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<v Speaker 1>interpersonal interaction happening again in their offices too with their clients. Hey, Emily,

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<v Speaker 1>we only have about a minute left here and we're

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<v Speaker 1>going to talk more about this on the other side

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<v Speaker 1>of the break after we do some news, but talk

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<v Speaker 1>a little bit about how programming for Insight twenty one

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<v Speaker 1>is different this year, given the different needs and what

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<v Speaker 1>you're hearing from clients. Yeah, so having a virtual conferences

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<v Speaker 1>here actually gives us an awesome opportunity to reach a

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<v Speaker 1>much broader range of participants. I think we will have

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<v Speaker 1>attendance from well across the globe, and we are anticipating

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<v Speaker 1>having many more people. Uh. We are focusing our topics

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<v Speaker 1>on growth, driving technology and innovation. What does this new

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<v Speaker 1>digital virtual world mean? Of course, we will hit topics

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<v Speaker 1>like we always have, on market insights and investment solutions,

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<v Speaker 1>and how we're thinking differently about organizational constructs in light

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<v Speaker 1>of everything that's changed over the last fifteen months. Let's

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<v Speaker 1>get back to our guests, B and Y, Melons Pershing

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<v Speaker 1>CEO Jim Crowley. He's with us on the phone in

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<v Speaker 1>New Jersey. Still with us also is being why Melons

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<v Speaker 1>Pershing CEO Emily Schloss er. She's on the phone in

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<v Speaker 1>New York City. It's all about being why Melon Pershing

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<v Speaker 1>inside held virtually this year. It gets underway next Tuesday. Um, Jim,

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<v Speaker 1>something we talk about on a daily basis here at Bloomberg.

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<v Speaker 1>Even today we're looking at a MC. It's just kind

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<v Speaker 1>of off the charts, these meme stocks and the right

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<v Speaker 1>eyes of alternative investing platforms, whether it's Reddit, whether it's

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<v Speaker 1>Robin Hood. Uh, we are really kind of watching this

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<v Speaker 1>and how it's upending what seems to be kind of

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<v Speaker 1>the mainstay financial community. What are your members, what are

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<v Speaker 1>your you know, the groups that the folks that come

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<v Speaker 1>to insight, what do they want to know about this? Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>so it's been quite quite interesting, Carol. You know, thankfully, Um,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, our platform has through all the Reddit and

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<v Speaker 1>beame stock. You know, volume volatility has performed quite well

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<v Speaker 1>our clients. Interestingly enough, while we see elevated transaction volumes

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<v Speaker 1>in these names, the overall dollar value notional value of

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<v Speaker 1>the of the transactions and things that we're doing for

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<v Speaker 1>our clients, it's relatively small because our clients are much

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<v Speaker 1>more what I would call financial planning based, wealth based,

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<v Speaker 1>and so while there may be some transaction activity in

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<v Speaker 1>these names on all the basis is really it's a

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<v Speaker 1>fraction of their overall what they're dealing with when they

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<v Speaker 1>talk about the wealth of their clients. Jim, what about

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<v Speaker 1>when it comes to SPACs. We interviewed Anthony Nodo yesterday.

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<v Speaker 1>Here's the CEO of so far they went public vs

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<v Speaker 1>back yesterday. If we're talking talking about this, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>at the beginning of the pandemic last year, we probably

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<v Speaker 1>wouldn't even have asked you about SPACs. Yeah, yeah, another

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<v Speaker 1>another sort of rebirth. Rebirth, that's a good way of

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<v Speaker 1>putting it, because it's not These are not new, right,

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<v Speaker 1>We've seen them before and again I would say that

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<v Speaker 1>if you were to talk to any one of our

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<v Speaker 1>clients or a number of our clients, they would they

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<v Speaker 1>have an interest obviously. I mean, this is it's an

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<v Speaker 1>interesting vehicle for which clients are coming in public and

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<v Speaker 1>coming to market and some very innovative companies and so um.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, it's it's something that our clients have an

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<v Speaker 1>interest in. But if you were to take again take

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<v Speaker 1>a look at their overall portfolio, it's very small at

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<v Speaker 1>what they're putting into portfolios, which is an interesting and

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<v Speaker 1>that's good to get that perspective. Hey, Emily, come on

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<v Speaker 1>back in on our conversation. You know you worked at Goldman.

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<v Speaker 1>You were in charge of their global markets division. You

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<v Speaker 1>operationally have had to look at b and Y, MAL

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<v Speaker 1>and Pershing and you know, look at what the needs

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<v Speaker 1>are for clients and your team around the globe. How

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<v Speaker 1>do things look in terms of us getting on the

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<v Speaker 1>other side of the pandemic. Yeah, you know, I think

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<v Speaker 1>UM for I thought I could come from Goldman. I

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<v Speaker 1>was in charge of change management there at their globle

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<v Speaker 1>Markets division, and so I'm excited to bring much of

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<v Speaker 1>my transformation expertise to Pershing. You know, some of the

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<v Speaker 1>things that clients are looking for really around some digital capabilities,

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<v Speaker 1>which not surprising and has certainly been accelerated by what

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<v Speaker 1>we've seen through the course of pandemic. I think the

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<v Speaker 1>clients are really looking for enhanced usability. I mean really,

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<v Speaker 1>their expectations are being set by the ease with which

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<v Speaker 1>they can do anything else in the digital world, from

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<v Speaker 1>personal banking to ordering a new word and getting food

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<v Speaker 1>and groceries delivered. Right, So we're seeing an elevated expectation

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<v Speaker 1>around the ultimate UM usability and experience, and as such,

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<v Speaker 1>we are uplifting our advisory and investment platforms to improve

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<v Speaker 1>the way that our advisors can help their clients move

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<v Speaker 1>money so they can onboard new accounts. UM. We're providing

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<v Speaker 1>new modern look and field streamline navigation. So we're really

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<v Speaker 1>excited about what we can bring to bear in terms

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<v Speaker 1>of our our digital platforms. UM just got about thirty

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<v Speaker 1>seconds left here, Jim or Emily. You guys have Dr Gupta,

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<v Speaker 1>Sanjay Gupta, CNN, Leslie Autam Jr. I've met him at

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<v Speaker 1>the Boston Pops. Really nice guy. I haven't even seen Hamiltons.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm excited for you. I wish we were there, Jim,

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<v Speaker 1>any thoughts on some of the speakers and just quickly, oh, okay,

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<v Speaker 1>well look, one of the speakers I've been talking about

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<v Speaker 1>is Adam Grant and m his his book that he

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<v Speaker 1>got out, and Emily and I've been rethinking everything that

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<v Speaker 1>we've been doing around around the company really to this

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<v Speaker 1>topic of transformation and not assuming that we know what

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<v Speaker 1>our clients are expecting. So it's been UM, it's been

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<v Speaker 1>a great ride for the last fifteen months getting through

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<v Speaker 1>this pandemic. Looking forward to getting to the other side. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>and and and seeing you all hopefully in Dallas with

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<v Speaker 1>us in June next year. Fingers crossed all of them.

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<v Speaker 1>Uh So, looking forward to guys, have a great event.

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<v Speaker 1>Good luck with it all. Jim Crowley, CEO at B

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<v Speaker 1>and Y Malon's Pershing and Emily Schlosser, she's the chief

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<v Speaker 1>operating officer at B and Y Melons pershing. You're listening

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<v Speaker 1>to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg Quick

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<v Speaker 1>Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. In the current issue

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<v Speaker 1>of Bloomberg business Week magazine is a story about the

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<v Speaker 1>million dollar initiative Tim that is on a mi isssue

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<v Speaker 1>to help less prosperous schools bridge the wealth gap through

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<v Speaker 1>investments in late stage startups. We're really talking about accessing

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<v Speaker 1>the venture scene. Yeah, and for a good reason, because

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<v Speaker 1>HBCUs have a tiny fraction of the endowments of colleges

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<v Speaker 1>and universities in the United States. Joining us as Janet Lauren,

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<v Speaker 1>higher education finance reporter at Bloomberg News. She joins us

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<v Speaker 1>on the phone from New York. Janet, before we get

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<v Speaker 1>into into what HBCUs are doing right now, hystorically black

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<v Speaker 1>colleges and universities. Yes, um, take us into the finances

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<v Speaker 1>of higher education and who has the endowments and why

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<v Speaker 1>they're so concentrated at the top. So the richest schools

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<v Speaker 1>also happened to be some of the oldest school Harvard, Yale,

0:12:32.679 --> 0:12:37.119
<v Speaker 1>and Princeton, for example, And they've been pretty sophisticated investors

0:12:37.200 --> 0:12:40.120
<v Speaker 1>for a long time. Yale, for example, got into venture

0:12:40.200 --> 0:12:43.880
<v Speaker 1>capital in nineteen seventy six, and some of their early

0:12:44.000 --> 0:12:47.720
<v Speaker 1>investments in you know, VC firms have been quite fruitful.

0:12:48.080 --> 0:12:50.920
<v Speaker 1>For example, if you look at their investment in LinkedIn

0:12:51.000 --> 0:12:53.760
<v Speaker 1>of a few million dollars turned into about eighty five

0:12:53.840 --> 0:12:57.559
<v Speaker 1>million dollars when Lincoln went public. And you know, you

0:12:57.679 --> 0:13:00.800
<v Speaker 1>have to have money to make these out locations in

0:13:01.080 --> 0:13:05.760
<v Speaker 1>in venture capital. UM. And these HBCUs, their their endowments

0:13:05.760 --> 0:13:08.520
<v Speaker 1>are quite small. Um. You know, we mentioned a few

0:13:08.600 --> 0:13:11.000
<v Speaker 1>in the story. Howard is the largest with about seven

0:13:11.120 --> 0:13:15.120
<v Speaker 1>hundred million, but more more averages about is Florida A

0:13:15.160 --> 0:13:17.760
<v Speaker 1>and M with about a hundred million. And you know,

0:13:17.880 --> 0:13:20.200
<v Speaker 1>you can't make money in some ways if you don't

0:13:20.240 --> 0:13:22.920
<v Speaker 1>have money, and it's hard to get access to some

0:13:23.040 --> 0:13:25.200
<v Speaker 1>of the best funds if you can't if you don't

0:13:25.600 --> 0:13:27.839
<v Speaker 1>have the money to invact. Well, before we get into

0:13:27.960 --> 0:13:30.360
<v Speaker 1>the well, before we get into whether it's a good idea,

0:13:30.400 --> 0:13:33.679
<v Speaker 1>because you do wonder about the exposure. If you're kind

0:13:33.720 --> 0:13:36.840
<v Speaker 1>of a smaller school or school with a smaller endowment,

0:13:37.080 --> 0:13:39.640
<v Speaker 1>you know, risk reward, but if things don't turn out well,

0:13:39.720 --> 0:13:42.360
<v Speaker 1>it could really impact your endowment. But one thing that

0:13:42.520 --> 0:13:44.840
<v Speaker 1>you make, Janet, that's so important. I think the point

0:13:44.840 --> 0:13:48.120
<v Speaker 1>in your story why this matters, is that the difference

0:13:48.120 --> 0:13:51.559
<v Speaker 1>in these endowments and the size of them, you know,

0:13:52.120 --> 0:13:56.120
<v Speaker 1>impacts the ability to offer student aid, to attract students,

0:13:56.240 --> 0:14:01.280
<v Speaker 1>top professors, build facilities. I mean there is a trickle down,

0:14:01.360 --> 0:14:06.800
<v Speaker 1>trickle up, trickle across the side impact as a result. Absolutely,

0:14:07.040 --> 0:14:09.280
<v Speaker 1>And you know a lot of these HBCUs. You look

0:14:09.320 --> 0:14:12.120
<v Speaker 1>at the shaff students who are recipients of TELL grants

0:14:12.360 --> 0:14:15.120
<v Speaker 1>for the lowest income students, and the shares are very high,

0:14:15.760 --> 0:14:18.080
<v Speaker 1>and these schools would like to be able to offer

0:14:18.160 --> 0:14:20.480
<v Speaker 1>a lot more financial aid, but you know, they're just

0:14:20.680 --> 0:14:23.000
<v Speaker 1>trying to make the lights go on, and they don't

0:14:23.040 --> 0:14:25.280
<v Speaker 1>have a lot of money for you know, not only

0:14:25.360 --> 0:14:28.640
<v Speaker 1>building glorious stem buildings, but you know, making repairs to

0:14:28.720 --> 0:14:31.680
<v Speaker 1>their you know, often hundred year old buildings. So for them,

0:14:31.800 --> 0:14:34.840
<v Speaker 1>you know, they're operating on very same margins to function,

0:14:35.280 --> 0:14:37.160
<v Speaker 1>you know, to give the aid they can to try

0:14:37.200 --> 0:14:40.520
<v Speaker 1>to attract professors UM and they just don't have a

0:14:40.600 --> 0:14:46.400
<v Speaker 1>lot of risk room to loose. So what are HBCUs

0:14:46.480 --> 0:14:49.880
<v Speaker 1>doing or or what is Based ten partners doing to

0:14:50.000 --> 0:14:54.280
<v Speaker 1>try to alleviate this. So they're trying to UM to

0:14:54.560 --> 0:14:58.520
<v Speaker 1>entice h species to to to invest in a new fund.

0:14:59.120 --> 0:15:02.680
<v Speaker 1>And what a unusual is they're not charging fees, which

0:15:02.840 --> 0:15:05.960
<v Speaker 1>as you know, you know they're students could be quite high,

0:15:06.160 --> 0:15:10.200
<v Speaker 1>especially when UM private equity and venturing are successful. You're

0:15:10.200 --> 0:15:13.240
<v Speaker 1>paying fees UM and then they're giving some of the

0:15:13.320 --> 0:15:17.280
<v Speaker 1>carry to create scholarships for these students, but also trying

0:15:17.360 --> 0:15:22.760
<v Speaker 1>to help build the pipeline of recruiting intern tiring practice

0:15:22.800 --> 0:15:26.120
<v Speaker 1>with job interviews for some of these students in the

0:15:26.320 --> 0:15:30.480
<v Speaker 1>portfolio companies that they can UM invest. The mean they're

0:15:30.520 --> 0:15:35.520
<v Speaker 1>also very interested in improving diversity and having assets to

0:15:35.520 --> 0:15:39.000
<v Speaker 1>sudents that they tifically may not be recruiting from. Well.

0:15:39.120 --> 0:15:41.720
<v Speaker 1>One issue though with venture capital is that you have

0:15:41.800 --> 0:15:44.640
<v Speaker 1>to be in a position in order to be comfortable

0:15:44.680 --> 0:15:47.600
<v Speaker 1>losing your entire investment, because that's what venture capital is

0:15:48.160 --> 0:15:52.200
<v Speaker 1>for every Facebook or linked In, there are dozens of

0:15:52.480 --> 0:15:56.120
<v Speaker 1>of bets that don't end up working out. Um, what

0:15:56.240 --> 0:15:58.640
<v Speaker 1>are they doing to to try to offset some of

0:15:58.680 --> 0:16:02.800
<v Speaker 1>that risk. Well, we're talking about later stage companies, not

0:16:03.120 --> 0:16:06.680
<v Speaker 1>early stage companies that you know may likely fail. And

0:16:06.960 --> 0:16:08.640
<v Speaker 1>I think that's part of the part of the a

0:16:08.720 --> 0:16:12.320
<v Speaker 1>little bit of alleviating the risk, because if you are

0:16:12.760 --> 0:16:15.280
<v Speaker 1>an endowment of about a hundred million, you often just

0:16:15.400 --> 0:16:17.800
<v Speaker 1>don't have a lot of options. You know, if you were,

0:16:18.120 --> 0:16:20.080
<v Speaker 1>you might put it in an index fun you know.

0:16:20.160 --> 0:16:22.920
<v Speaker 1>We had a comment from part the former Carthage College

0:16:23.120 --> 0:16:26.200
<v Speaker 1>CEO in Wisconsin who beat the pants off of Harvard

0:16:26.600 --> 0:16:29.680
<v Speaker 1>his tenure average because he had a very simple formula

0:16:29.760 --> 0:16:32.280
<v Speaker 1>of vanilla funds or if you could invest in some

0:16:32.400 --> 0:16:36.120
<v Speaker 1>fund of funds but you're still paying sees. So, so

0:16:36.280 --> 0:16:38.640
<v Speaker 1>tell us about this two and a fifty million dollar

0:16:38.720 --> 0:16:42.760
<v Speaker 1>fund and the individual behind it all um So. He

0:16:43.320 --> 0:16:47.440
<v Speaker 1>is a Stanford alum he um you know, has been

0:16:47.480 --> 0:16:51.800
<v Speaker 1>successful um Aud and a Joe and he was really

0:16:51.880 --> 0:16:54.320
<v Speaker 1>interested in moved by the death of George Floyd to

0:16:54.400 --> 0:16:57.040
<v Speaker 1>try to help these companies these these schools. You know,

0:16:57.120 --> 0:17:01.280
<v Speaker 1>as he said, systematic inequality is really about wealth inequality. UM.

0:17:01.480 --> 0:17:04.320
<v Speaker 1>You know his he was born in Spain, he didn't

0:17:04.400 --> 0:17:07.600
<v Speaker 1>have the typical UM experience growing up as an African

0:17:07.600 --> 0:17:10.720
<v Speaker 1>American in the United States. He went to Stanford and

0:17:10.800 --> 0:17:13.600
<v Speaker 1>made some connections and decided this was something that he

0:17:13.680 --> 0:17:18.920
<v Speaker 1>wanted to do. How have HBCUs reacted and how have

0:17:19.040 --> 0:17:24.200
<v Speaker 1>they embraced or not embraced the strategy. So some HBCUs

0:17:24.359 --> 0:17:28.080
<v Speaker 1>have invested, including the schools we included in the story

0:17:28.520 --> 0:17:31.720
<v Speaker 1>Howard and Florida, A and M. But you know, not everybody,

0:17:31.840 --> 0:17:34.840
<v Speaker 1>if you're a small fifty million dollar in Diamond or

0:17:34.840 --> 0:17:37.320
<v Speaker 1>a hundred million dollar Damon, you may not be familiar

0:17:37.359 --> 0:17:39.520
<v Speaker 1>with the idea of venture capital UM, and you just

0:17:39.680 --> 0:17:42.400
<v Speaker 1>may think it's too risky. You still have to turn

0:17:42.480 --> 0:17:45.119
<v Speaker 1>the lights on every year of the school. Yeah, I mean,

0:17:45.160 --> 0:17:49.200
<v Speaker 1>but you do think about you know, the conversation in

0:17:49.320 --> 0:17:52.160
<v Speaker 1>many ways over the past year, right, tim has evolved

0:17:52.280 --> 0:17:55.240
<v Speaker 1>from you know, we've learned it's not just about income gaps,

0:17:55.320 --> 0:17:57.840
<v Speaker 1>it's about wealth gaps, and that can be generational and

0:17:58.080 --> 0:18:00.240
<v Speaker 1>and and I do feel like, you know, don't you

0:18:00.280 --> 0:18:02.080
<v Speaker 1>get to that in your story that you do think

0:18:02.080 --> 0:18:04.760
<v Speaker 1>about these schools that maybe don't have the same access

0:18:05.440 --> 0:18:07.639
<v Speaker 1>to the funds that some of the really wealthier schools do,

0:18:07.800 --> 0:18:11.320
<v Speaker 1>that tend to be predominantly white, you know, and it

0:18:11.440 --> 0:18:15.800
<v Speaker 1>just perpetuates a cycle that somehow it's gotta it's gotta change,

0:18:16.640 --> 0:18:18.919
<v Speaker 1>all right. And if you look at say gale Um

0:18:19.400 --> 0:18:23.720
<v Speaker 1>heard a lot of c i os, really big schools, Crinceton,

0:18:24.000 --> 0:18:26.639
<v Speaker 1>m I T, Stanford, and they tend to invest together

0:18:26.800 --> 0:18:29.399
<v Speaker 1>on the same deal. So again it's very it becomes

0:18:29.480 --> 0:18:31.800
<v Speaker 1>very clubby and very insular. And if you didn't work

0:18:31.840 --> 0:18:33.960
<v Speaker 1>in the Dale investment opportunity may not be invited to

0:18:34.040 --> 0:18:36.520
<v Speaker 1>participate in these deals that you know, one of the

0:18:36.560 --> 0:18:39.560
<v Speaker 1>other very wealthy schools found out about. But then again

0:18:39.640 --> 0:18:41.920
<v Speaker 1>then you can't even make you can't write the test

0:18:42.000 --> 0:18:45.240
<v Speaker 1>because you're endowment is so small. You know, what's the

0:18:45.320 --> 0:18:48.000
<v Speaker 1>time horizon for an investment like this and when do

0:18:48.119 --> 0:18:49.760
<v Speaker 1>we find out and when do they find out if

0:18:49.840 --> 0:18:53.800
<v Speaker 1>this was a successful way to to grow their endowment? Um,

0:18:54.080 --> 0:18:56.040
<v Speaker 1>you know, in some ways, it could be a couple

0:18:56.080 --> 0:18:58.320
<v Speaker 1>of years or could be Kenny, It's in the typical

0:18:58.400 --> 0:19:02.560
<v Speaker 1>life of a of a uh private equity fund. Yeah,

0:19:02.640 --> 0:19:04.600
<v Speaker 1>but this is a really kind of thoughtful story and

0:19:04.680 --> 0:19:06.800
<v Speaker 1>just thinking how you change the dynamics and the trends

0:19:06.840 --> 0:19:09.359
<v Speaker 1>that we've seen for such a long time. Genal Lauren,

0:19:09.359 --> 0:19:11.720
<v Speaker 1>thank you so much. Higher Education Finance Report at Bloomberg

0:19:11.760 --> 0:19:13.760
<v Speaker 1>News on the phone from New York City too. Maybe

0:19:13.840 --> 0:19:15.720
<v Speaker 1>it's because my daughter has gone through, you know, the

0:19:15.760 --> 0:19:18.359
<v Speaker 1>college application process, and we've learned about a lot of schools.

0:19:18.359 --> 0:19:22.560
<v Speaker 1>But you know, there's so much money involved in these endowments,

0:19:22.680 --> 0:19:25.360
<v Speaker 1>and you do wonder about the advantages for those really

0:19:25.400 --> 0:19:28.119
<v Speaker 1>really rich schools versus some other ones. Yeah, it was

0:19:28.320 --> 0:19:31.600
<v Speaker 1>shocking to reading this story, the concentration of endowments of

0:19:31.720 --> 0:19:33.800
<v Speaker 1>just the top ten schools. I mean, in some ways

0:19:33.880 --> 0:19:36.840
<v Speaker 1>it really mimics the ultra wealthy in the United States

0:19:36.920 --> 0:19:41.240
<v Speaker 1>and individuals. You control the vast majority of the welcoming country,

0:19:41.280 --> 0:19:43.080
<v Speaker 1>a lot of wealth in the hands of a very few,

0:19:43.119 --> 0:19:51.240
<v Speaker 1>whether you're talking about colleges, universities or individuals. This is

0:19:51.320 --> 0:19:55.280
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes

0:19:55.359 --> 0:19:59.320
<v Speaker 1>Tim Stinovik on Bloomberg Radio. All right, folks, we like

0:19:59.440 --> 0:20:01.639
<v Speaker 1>to do a daily check on the virus and the

0:20:01.760 --> 0:20:05.560
<v Speaker 1>vaccine rollout and one headline that just crossed catching our attention.

0:20:06.600 --> 0:20:08.800
<v Speaker 1>We are seeing that New Jersey planning to shut some

0:20:08.840 --> 0:20:11.760
<v Speaker 1>of the mega sites UH and New York City planning

0:20:11.800 --> 0:20:13.920
<v Speaker 1>some school vaccines. So there's a lot still going on here,

0:20:14.440 --> 0:20:16.879
<v Speaker 1>certainly in the US and on a global basis. One

0:20:16.920 --> 0:20:19.040
<v Speaker 1>of our go to people. I don't know that he's

0:20:19.080 --> 0:20:21.920
<v Speaker 1>gotten any sleep in the last twelve, thirteen, fourteen months,

0:20:22.040 --> 0:20:25.120
<v Speaker 1>but he's back in our student He did the virus tracker.

0:20:25.480 --> 0:20:28.240
<v Speaker 1>He and his team did the vaccine tracker. You saw

0:20:28.359 --> 0:20:32.040
<v Speaker 1>his tweets each and every day. We created five vaccines.

0:20:33.160 --> 0:20:35.600
<v Speaker 1>The man, the myth, the legend. Drew Armstrong is senior

0:20:35.760 --> 0:20:39.560
<v Speaker 1>editor for US Healthcare for Bloomberg News. Didn't create the vaccines.

0:20:39.560 --> 0:20:41.440
<v Speaker 1>I'm going to get in trouble, but I think he

0:20:41.520 --> 0:20:43.560
<v Speaker 1>probably cut off. I think I think people know you

0:20:43.640 --> 0:20:45.960
<v Speaker 1>were joking, UM, but we do love him anyway. He

0:20:46.200 --> 0:20:48.240
<v Speaker 1>is senior editor for Your Southcare. Bloomberg News joins us

0:20:48.240 --> 0:20:52.200
<v Speaker 1>from Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studios. Um, Drew, you mentioned that

0:20:52.280 --> 0:20:55.480
<v Speaker 1>this is your first day back in the office. It is,

0:20:55.720 --> 0:21:00.080
<v Speaker 1>it is since the fall September, but I feel like

0:21:00.160 --> 0:21:03.119
<v Speaker 1>that symbolizes something so big for where we are as

0:21:03.160 --> 0:21:05.560
<v Speaker 1>a city. Yeah, I think that's exactly right. I mean,

0:21:05.600 --> 0:21:08.359
<v Speaker 1>you know, I was I got my second dose of

0:21:08.600 --> 0:21:11.960
<v Speaker 1>maderna vaccine about a month ago. My wife and I

0:21:12.080 --> 0:21:15.800
<v Speaker 1>immediately booked a trip to Mexico for exactly two weeks

0:21:15.880 --> 0:21:19.480
<v Speaker 1>after my land does UM and and left our lovely

0:21:20.040 --> 0:21:23.240
<v Speaker 1>children who we've seen so much of UM at home

0:21:23.440 --> 0:21:25.960
<v Speaker 1>with Art Annie. And you know, here I am back

0:21:25.960 --> 0:21:27.399
<v Speaker 1>in the office, and I've been talking to a lot

0:21:27.440 --> 0:21:29.639
<v Speaker 1>of other people who's their first day back again UM

0:21:29.760 --> 0:21:31.479
<v Speaker 1>as well. Yeah, I mean, you know, you look at

0:21:31.520 --> 0:21:34.200
<v Speaker 1>some of the stats where you know, there's certainly a

0:21:34.640 --> 0:21:38.959
<v Speaker 1>strong downward trend in cases, hospitalizations, deaths all around the country. UM.

0:21:39.200 --> 0:21:41.679
<v Speaker 1>Certainly some underlying things to be worried about. And if

0:21:41.720 --> 0:21:43.960
<v Speaker 1>you look around the globe, it's a very different picture

0:21:44.160 --> 0:21:47.399
<v Speaker 1>in UM a lot of places. But you know, a

0:21:47.480 --> 0:21:49.200
<v Speaker 1>lot of my attention, just as a as a news

0:21:49.320 --> 0:21:52.560
<v Speaker 1>editor is really now focused elsewhere outside the United States

0:21:52.600 --> 0:21:54.639
<v Speaker 1>in terms of where the story is and where the

0:21:54.960 --> 0:21:57.160
<v Speaker 1>where the crisis is, and things are beginning to feel

0:21:57.280 --> 0:22:00.159
<v Speaker 1>much much different here personally, and from everybody I I

0:22:00.200 --> 0:22:03.440
<v Speaker 1>speak to and run across um UH and talking to

0:22:03.520 --> 0:22:05.560
<v Speaker 1>people in some recent travels. Yeah, it's funny because we're

0:22:05.560 --> 0:22:07.320
<v Speaker 1>gonna do the bigs Take story, the Blueboard Big Take,

0:22:07.359 --> 0:22:10.160
<v Speaker 1>and it's about real estate investments office and basically where

0:22:10.160 --> 0:22:12.320
<v Speaker 1>people are investing is like lab space because of what

0:22:12.440 --> 0:22:15.000
<v Speaker 1>happened during the pandemic. So it's interesting to see where

0:22:15.240 --> 0:22:17.800
<v Speaker 1>where we're going forward when you look around the globe

0:22:17.800 --> 0:22:19.760
<v Speaker 1>for a while, Drew, we were thinking about whatever is

0:22:19.760 --> 0:22:22.080
<v Speaker 1>going on in China kind of tells us to some extent,

0:22:22.400 --> 0:22:26.240
<v Speaker 1>what's next for us. Um, what do you look towards

0:22:26.560 --> 0:22:28.119
<v Speaker 1>to kind of get an idea of what's next and

0:22:28.119 --> 0:22:29.760
<v Speaker 1>whether or not a new wave is kind of gum

0:22:29.880 --> 0:22:32.000
<v Speaker 1>or what have you. Yeah, I think one of the

0:22:32.080 --> 0:22:34.240
<v Speaker 1>things that we're really keeping a close eye on is,

0:22:34.280 --> 0:22:36.440
<v Speaker 1>you know, some of these outbreaks in South America where

0:22:36.440 --> 0:22:39.280
<v Speaker 1>you're seeing very significant, you know, COVID numbers and in

0:22:39.359 --> 0:22:43.320
<v Speaker 1>some places despite quite real efforts to vaccine people, and

0:22:43.359 --> 0:22:45.200
<v Speaker 1>you look at what's happening in Chile. They've got a

0:22:45.240 --> 0:22:47.520
<v Speaker 1>better vaccination coverage in the United States, and yet they

0:22:47.560 --> 0:22:50.200
<v Speaker 1>still have a pretty heinous outbreak that they're dealing with.

0:22:50.640 --> 0:22:53.560
<v Speaker 1>You know, come, I think everybody's trying to figure that out.

0:22:53.640 --> 0:22:55.480
<v Speaker 1>Isn't you know, certain subsets of the population. Is it

0:22:55.560 --> 0:22:59.680
<v Speaker 1>an issue of you know, variant versus vaccine um. You know, likewise,

0:23:00.160 --> 0:23:03.399
<v Speaker 1>go around the globe to places in Asia where they

0:23:03.480 --> 0:23:06.359
<v Speaker 1>have far fewer cases than we have in the US,

0:23:06.440 --> 0:23:08.680
<v Speaker 1>and yet are still kind of on on total lockdown

0:23:09.080 --> 0:23:10.840
<v Speaker 1>in in some of these countries, or you know, you

0:23:10.880 --> 0:23:13.600
<v Speaker 1>look at other places, some of our amazing reporters out

0:23:13.600 --> 0:23:15.399
<v Speaker 1>in Hong Kong, we're just noting, you know, about how

0:23:15.520 --> 0:23:18.200
<v Speaker 1>people aren't getting the vaccine there and it's been hard

0:23:18.280 --> 0:23:20.199
<v Speaker 1>for you know, nightclubs and bars to open back up.

0:23:20.400 --> 0:23:22.320
<v Speaker 1>So so much of what's going on in the globe

0:23:22.440 --> 0:23:26.520
<v Speaker 1>right now is you know, as much about risk perception

0:23:26.760 --> 0:23:29.439
<v Speaker 1>and risk tolerance as it is about the epidemic. When

0:23:29.480 --> 0:23:31.439
<v Speaker 1>I think we when we look at how people are,

0:23:31.720 --> 0:23:34.480
<v Speaker 1>how people are acting, how they're approaching vaccines, how they're

0:23:34.480 --> 0:23:38.560
<v Speaker 1>approaching you know, the inevitable some level of existing disease

0:23:38.640 --> 0:23:42.720
<v Speaker 1>in the community, um where they are, Uh, it's as

0:23:42.800 --> 0:23:45.360
<v Speaker 1>much culture as it is science, I think at this point. Well,

0:23:45.359 --> 0:23:48.840
<v Speaker 1>speaking of the science, and I'm curious as to how

0:23:48.960 --> 0:23:52.080
<v Speaker 1>well the vaccines have proven to work, the MR and

0:23:52.119 --> 0:23:55.120
<v Speaker 1>A vaccines specifically, because a big part of the conversation

0:23:55.160 --> 0:23:56.960
<v Speaker 1>try over the last few months was Okay, well, this

0:23:57.080 --> 0:23:59.440
<v Speaker 1>pandemic is not over until the world is vaccinated, and

0:23:59.520 --> 0:24:01.760
<v Speaker 1>that's because there could be strains that develop in certain

0:24:01.800 --> 0:24:05.560
<v Speaker 1>parts of the world that could be get through and

0:24:05.640 --> 0:24:09.160
<v Speaker 1>get past vaccines. Is there any indication that some variants

0:24:09.240 --> 0:24:11.840
<v Speaker 1>and mutations at this point can do that, not with

0:24:12.000 --> 0:24:14.480
<v Speaker 1>the mRNA vaccines in a meaningful way. I think, you know,

0:24:15.160 --> 0:24:17.719
<v Speaker 1>you are always going to see variants. We've there've been

0:24:17.720 --> 0:24:19.760
<v Speaker 1>a bunch of them identified and some of you know,

0:24:19.880 --> 0:24:23.920
<v Speaker 1>variants of concern um and it's not that they don't

0:24:24.320 --> 0:24:27.320
<v Speaker 1>cause disease, because they do. I think what you're seeing though,

0:24:27.520 --> 0:24:30.320
<v Speaker 1>is that they are not causing severe disease, at least

0:24:30.359 --> 0:24:32.639
<v Speaker 1>in the cases of these. You know, mRNA vaccines have

0:24:33.280 --> 0:24:36.359
<v Speaker 1>been proven highly highly effective. It's worth remembering that. You know,

0:24:36.920 --> 0:24:40.280
<v Speaker 1>if you take covid and you turn it into a cold,

0:24:41.040 --> 0:24:43.480
<v Speaker 1>that's a pretty good solution. You know, you can still

0:24:43.600 --> 0:24:47.840
<v Speaker 1>have cases if they're old cases. You know, yeah, exactly,

0:24:47.840 --> 0:24:49.760
<v Speaker 1>I mean, you know that's that is a manageable thing.

0:24:50.320 --> 0:24:53.159
<v Speaker 1>It's still not great, but you know, the problem is

0:24:53.200 --> 0:24:55.040
<v Speaker 1>more or less, you know, at that point it starts

0:24:55.080 --> 0:24:57.600
<v Speaker 1>to go away. What I am thinking a lot about

0:24:57.720 --> 0:24:59.239
<v Speaker 1>is do I need a booster? And do I need

0:24:59.280 --> 0:25:02.160
<v Speaker 1>to mark my cal And we had doctor William Hazeltinea

0:25:02.240 --> 0:25:04.520
<v Speaker 1>on and he's like, I've marked my calendar. You know,

0:25:04.600 --> 0:25:06.720
<v Speaker 1>this is the guy who understands biotech and science in

0:25:06.800 --> 0:25:08.800
<v Speaker 1>a big way. Do I need to be Do all

0:25:08.840 --> 0:25:10.720
<v Speaker 1>of us need to be marking our calendar six months

0:25:10.760 --> 0:25:12.960
<v Speaker 1>from our last shot to plan for a booster? I

0:25:13.000 --> 0:25:14.800
<v Speaker 1>think it's a great question. I think the answers we

0:25:14.840 --> 0:25:18.560
<v Speaker 1>don't know. Um you know, there's these vaccines are not

0:25:18.640 --> 0:25:21.920
<v Speaker 1>old enough for us to really really really know how

0:25:22.000 --> 0:25:24.320
<v Speaker 1>effective they will be in the real world, you know,

0:25:24.880 --> 0:25:27.480
<v Speaker 1>at nine months, at a year, things like that. We

0:25:27.560 --> 0:25:29.720
<v Speaker 1>just don't have a lot of great data on that.

0:25:29.760 --> 0:25:31.800
<v Speaker 1>We have people from early on in the trials. I'm

0:25:31.800 --> 0:25:34.080
<v Speaker 1>sure they're following very closely to see, you know, what

0:25:34.200 --> 0:25:36.680
<v Speaker 1>are their antibody levels, what are their infection risks, on

0:25:36.800 --> 0:25:39.480
<v Speaker 1>and so forth, But we really, frankly, you know, do

0:25:39.680 --> 0:25:42.639
<v Speaker 1>not know yet. I'm sure. I mean, we have a

0:25:42.720 --> 0:25:45.000
<v Speaker 1>you know, when we see mutations, when we see viruses

0:25:45.080 --> 0:25:49.159
<v Speaker 1>that change the flu which is highly highly highly um

0:25:49.359 --> 0:25:52.240
<v Speaker 1>uh that has a high rate of mutation, that's just

0:25:52.320 --> 0:25:54.480
<v Speaker 1>why we get new flu shots every year, you know.

0:25:54.680 --> 0:25:57.680
<v Speaker 1>But with this, I think we just don't honestly know yet,

0:25:57.800 --> 0:26:00.560
<v Speaker 1>you know what exactly those boot ssters are going to

0:26:00.640 --> 0:26:03.159
<v Speaker 1>look like. Will it be something more like they're you know,

0:26:03.560 --> 0:26:06.239
<v Speaker 1>tailored to new mutations in a way, if that's if

0:26:06.280 --> 0:26:08.480
<v Speaker 1>those end up being very problematic for the MR and

0:26:08.560 --> 0:26:11.560
<v Speaker 1>a vaccines um, are they tailored? Are they done as

0:26:11.600 --> 0:26:14.080
<v Speaker 1>a booster shot? I really think that's still gonna be

0:26:14.160 --> 0:26:15.240
<v Speaker 1>up in there. I think a lot of people are

0:26:15.320 --> 0:26:17.879
<v Speaker 1>very smartly betting that yes, we will need and get

0:26:17.960 --> 0:26:21.680
<v Speaker 1>booster shots. But I wouldn't be surprised to see that

0:26:22.080 --> 0:26:25.159
<v Speaker 1>dynamic and rollout look very very different than the kind

0:26:25.200 --> 0:26:27.120
<v Speaker 1>of initial campaign has. So is it like we swing

0:26:27.200 --> 0:26:29.159
<v Speaker 1>by the CBS or Walgreens and describe it or from

0:26:29.160 --> 0:26:31.160
<v Speaker 1>our doctors, or is it like do we need these

0:26:31.200 --> 0:26:33.800
<v Speaker 1>mega sites to be able to quickly ramp up again

0:26:33.800 --> 0:26:36.080
<v Speaker 1>and just got about twenty seconds. I have a feeling

0:26:36.080 --> 0:26:37.320
<v Speaker 1>it will be a lot more like getting the flu

0:26:37.440 --> 0:26:39.800
<v Speaker 1>shot every year. You'll lower uptake and you know, people

0:26:39.960 --> 0:26:42.520
<v Speaker 1>you know, kind of uptake faiths away as as the

0:26:42.680 --> 0:26:45.480
<v Speaker 1>as the virus does until the next virus hits us right,

0:26:45.720 --> 0:26:49.879
<v Speaker 1>because they're gonna come right. Oh yeah, we'll be doing

0:26:49.920 --> 0:26:53.000
<v Speaker 1>this again at some point or other. Unfortunately that happy

0:26:53.080 --> 0:26:57.560
<v Speaker 1>Wednesday's true go home. No, I'm just kidding. I'm just kidding.

0:26:58.119 --> 0:27:01.640
<v Speaker 1>Yours to your arms during true Armstrong, he's senior editor

0:27:01.680 --> 0:27:03.520
<v Speaker 1>for US Healthcare. He has really kept us on the

0:27:03.560 --> 0:27:06.800
<v Speaker 1>straight and narrow, uh really throughout this pandemic here at

0:27:06.840 --> 0:27:11.320
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg News. So I must read his whole team. I'm

0:27:11.480 --> 0:27:18.399
<v Speaker 1>ROMC a journal Yeah, but you let me drive? No, no, no,

0:27:19.520 --> 0:27:24.760
<v Speaker 1>drive home please, I'll do the riding drivel. I want

0:27:24.800 --> 0:27:40.399
<v Speaker 1>to drive. Just drive baby. The question dry, This is

0:27:40.480 --> 0:27:46.400
<v Speaker 1>the drive to the globe. Thanks well, un on Bloomberg Radio. Yeah,

0:27:46.400 --> 0:27:48.280
<v Speaker 1>we've got just about ten a half minutes left in

0:27:48.359 --> 0:27:52.320
<v Speaker 1>today's trading session. Been an interesting day. It feels like

0:27:52.400 --> 0:27:56.160
<v Speaker 1>the overall markets definitely some of the wind being kicked

0:27:56.200 --> 0:27:59.159
<v Speaker 1>out of them, because we're definitely off our highs of

0:27:59.240 --> 0:28:02.320
<v Speaker 1>the session, still just slightly. But nonetheless, if you look

0:28:02.359 --> 0:28:04.639
<v Speaker 1>at one of the meme stocks, your AMC, it's just

0:28:04.840 --> 0:28:07.040
<v Speaker 1>off the charts. So trying to make sense of it all.

0:28:07.520 --> 0:28:09.520
<v Speaker 1>Great to have back with us. Been looking forward to

0:28:09.560 --> 0:28:12.560
<v Speaker 1>a Doug Ramsey ch Chief investment officer of the Luthole Group. Uh,

0:28:12.600 --> 0:28:15.080
<v Speaker 1>their core investment fund beating most of its peers year

0:28:15.160 --> 0:28:19.359
<v Speaker 1>to date, up just about twelve or so in the

0:28:19.400 --> 0:28:22.360
<v Speaker 1>past twelve months. Tug back with us from Minneapolis. Good

0:28:22.400 --> 0:28:25.040
<v Speaker 1>to have you here. How are you? I'm doing well?

0:28:25.240 --> 0:28:27.760
<v Speaker 1>How about you doing okay? Hanging in there, trying to

0:28:27.840 --> 0:28:30.040
<v Speaker 1>make sense out of some of the uh kind of

0:28:30.080 --> 0:28:33.399
<v Speaker 1>wackiness that continues to invade our markets while trying to

0:28:33.480 --> 0:28:38.000
<v Speaker 1>focus on fundamentals. What are the fundamentals you're you're focusing on,

0:28:38.120 --> 0:28:40.800
<v Speaker 1>especially because I know you just trimmed backed, uh your

0:28:40.840 --> 0:28:44.600
<v Speaker 1>equity exposure a little bit. Well, you know, we've been

0:28:44.640 --> 0:28:47.480
<v Speaker 1>concerned and this has been a long running concern and

0:28:47.920 --> 0:28:52.040
<v Speaker 1>quite frankly a little bit of a premature concern on evaluations,

0:28:52.160 --> 0:28:56.120
<v Speaker 1>especially US large caps. I mean, um, you know, whether

0:28:56.200 --> 0:28:58.640
<v Speaker 1>you base it on forward earnings. You know, we do

0:28:58.720 --> 0:29:01.880
<v Speaker 1>a lot with normalized earnings, you know, sort of the

0:29:02.040 --> 0:29:05.040
<v Speaker 1>approach that Robert Schiller has popularized. We've been doing that

0:29:05.200 --> 0:29:09.440
<v Speaker 1>here for decades. Uh. We're very close to the valuation

0:29:09.560 --> 0:29:12.600
<v Speaker 1>peaks that we made back at the tech bubble heights

0:29:13.200 --> 0:29:16.920
<v Speaker 1>twenty one years ago. Uh, and in the average stock

0:29:17.160 --> 0:29:19.440
<v Speaker 1>so to speak. I mean, if you look at mid

0:29:19.600 --> 0:29:24.160
<v Speaker 1>large and UH small is far more expensive than it

0:29:24.240 --> 0:29:26.280
<v Speaker 1>ever was in the late nineties, So it's a very

0:29:26.360 --> 0:29:30.280
<v Speaker 1>broadly expensive market. That's made it difficult. And now UH,

0:29:30.600 --> 0:29:34.560
<v Speaker 1>you know, we've got inflation ticking up, which one would

0:29:34.600 --> 0:29:38.560
<v Speaker 1>expect at some point might lift bond yields, but that's

0:29:38.760 --> 0:29:41.320
<v Speaker 1>that's not been the case here in the past few months.

0:29:41.360 --> 0:29:43.640
<v Speaker 1>So you've still got that very low discount, right that

0:29:44.120 --> 0:29:47.440
<v Speaker 1>bullish investors can argue you support this valuation structure, but

0:29:47.520 --> 0:29:49.760
<v Speaker 1>we're obviously skeptical. So if you're skeptical, what do you

0:29:49.800 --> 0:29:52.360
<v Speaker 1>do in a situation like this? Do you go to

0:29:52.400 --> 0:29:54.040
<v Speaker 1>a little bit of cash and sort of sit on

0:29:54.120 --> 0:29:56.239
<v Speaker 1>the sidelines and wait for a pullback where you can

0:29:56.280 --> 0:29:59.120
<v Speaker 1>get in at a less expensive price. Yeah, that's our

0:29:59.160 --> 0:30:01.680
<v Speaker 1>thinking as a matter of fact. Rather than moving to cash,

0:30:01.800 --> 0:30:06.160
<v Speaker 1>we've got a hedging strategy we've been managing for thirty years.

0:30:06.240 --> 0:30:08.800
<v Speaker 1>Somehow we've been able to stay in the market shorting

0:30:09.240 --> 0:30:11.960
<v Speaker 1>for thirty years, but that's because it's used as a hedge.

0:30:12.840 --> 0:30:19.160
<v Speaker 1>Are our grizzly strategy UH targets vulnerable stocks, evaluation momentum,

0:30:19.360 --> 0:30:25.160
<v Speaker 1>earnings estimate revision, earnings quality perspective, so we use that

0:30:25.440 --> 0:30:28.040
<v Speaker 1>as a hedge, and that's that's how we uh, that's

0:30:28.080 --> 0:30:32.000
<v Speaker 1>how we pulled back to I do expect a pretty

0:30:32.040 --> 0:30:37.160
<v Speaker 1>good correction later this summer. Uh, part of the ten

0:30:37.200 --> 0:30:40.320
<v Speaker 1>percent correction you're yeah, you know, certainly, I think it

0:30:40.360 --> 0:30:43.160
<v Speaker 1>carried deeper than that, especially when you look at, you know,

0:30:43.320 --> 0:30:47.400
<v Speaker 1>how far we've come off of those lows from last March.

0:30:47.520 --> 0:30:51.200
<v Speaker 1>I mean, the normal first correction in a bowl market

0:30:51.520 --> 0:30:54.800
<v Speaker 1>retraces a pretty good piece of that. And because that

0:30:54.960 --> 0:30:56.960
<v Speaker 1>moment is so large, I'm not sure I want to

0:30:57.000 --> 0:30:59.640
<v Speaker 1>talk about percentages just because we look at you know,

0:31:00.080 --> 0:31:02.600
<v Speaker 1>we would then be looking for bottoming conditions. But the

0:31:02.640 --> 0:31:05.600
<v Speaker 1>reason we cut back now is just because, um, you know,

0:31:05.920 --> 0:31:09.400
<v Speaker 1>obviously it's difficult the time. But technicals still I think

0:31:09.480 --> 0:31:11.640
<v Speaker 1>are very good. I think it's more a question of,

0:31:12.080 --> 0:31:15.280
<v Speaker 1>you know, when our market's going to respond to this

0:31:15.480 --> 0:31:18.600
<v Speaker 1>inflation pick up, and when might they conclude that it's

0:31:18.600 --> 0:31:21.840
<v Speaker 1>a little bit more than than a transitory thing. Listen,

0:31:22.000 --> 0:31:25.080
<v Speaker 1>So investors dealing with things like, Okay, is inflation transitory

0:31:25.240 --> 0:31:27.480
<v Speaker 1>or not? Uh, and looking at the outlook. At the

0:31:27.560 --> 0:31:30.320
<v Speaker 1>same time, you continue to have the administration making moves. Um,

0:31:30.440 --> 0:31:33.000
<v Speaker 1>we just had a headline crossing present Biden planning to

0:31:33.040 --> 0:31:35.560
<v Speaker 1>amend a US ban on investments and companies linked to

0:31:35.680 --> 0:31:39.240
<v Speaker 1>China's military this week after the Trump eraor policy was

0:31:39.360 --> 0:31:41.560
<v Speaker 1>challenged in court and left investors confused kind of about

0:31:41.560 --> 0:31:44.080
<v Speaker 1>the extent of its reach to subsidiary from this according

0:31:44.120 --> 0:31:47.840
<v Speaker 1>to people with the matter, So again amending President Trump's

0:31:47.880 --> 0:31:50.880
<v Speaker 1>China blacklist. But uh, and that targeted key industry. So

0:31:51.040 --> 0:31:53.080
<v Speaker 1>it's just a reminder that things continue to come out

0:31:53.120 --> 0:31:57.600
<v Speaker 1>of this administration tim too that can impact investments. Thought,

0:31:57.720 --> 0:32:00.720
<v Speaker 1>you know, investors thoughts about the outlook. Yeah, I'm wondering

0:32:00.800 --> 0:32:02.840
<v Speaker 1>what it is. What is that signal that the market

0:32:02.920 --> 0:32:07.640
<v Speaker 1>gets that really shows that inflation is here to stay?

0:32:07.840 --> 0:32:12.560
<v Speaker 1>Is it wage growth? I certainly think that would be

0:32:12.800 --> 0:32:14.920
<v Speaker 1>a piece of it. But I think, you know, the

0:32:15.440 --> 0:32:19.959
<v Speaker 1>housing market remaining strong and house prices continuing to escalate.

0:32:20.080 --> 0:32:24.640
<v Speaker 1>I mean you're talking about you know, extreme underbuilding in uh,

0:32:25.160 --> 0:32:28.920
<v Speaker 1>the US housing market for the better part of a decade. UM.

0:32:29.200 --> 0:32:31.479
<v Speaker 1>As a matter of fact, we've been in the home builders,

0:32:31.520 --> 0:32:34.400
<v Speaker 1>I mean, we don't believe there's a housing bubble. We're

0:32:34.440 --> 0:32:40.080
<v Speaker 1>also in another sector that's been undersupplied of late and

0:32:40.560 --> 0:32:43.040
<v Speaker 1>the situation that's going to continue probably for a couple

0:32:43.080 --> 0:32:46.840
<v Speaker 1>of years, and that semiconductor equipment. So I do think

0:32:46.880 --> 0:32:49.480
<v Speaker 1>of the uh some of these areas is sort of

0:32:49.840 --> 0:32:53.320
<v Speaker 1>you know, chronic, you know, not just the temporary uh

0:32:53.440 --> 0:32:56.920
<v Speaker 1>COVID related supply shortages. I mean, they're just things that

0:32:56.960 --> 0:32:58.880
<v Speaker 1>they're going to take a while to address. So I

0:32:58.920 --> 0:33:01.960
<v Speaker 1>think the issue is, I mean, we will uh see

0:33:02.040 --> 0:33:05.480
<v Speaker 1>that the five and maybe even six CPI inflation numbers

0:33:05.480 --> 0:33:07.560
<v Speaker 1>we see in the next couple of months will be transitory.

0:33:07.680 --> 0:33:10.480
<v Speaker 1>The issue is what if we settled down to three

0:33:10.760 --> 0:33:13.040
<v Speaker 1>or three and a half. I mean, that's just clearly

0:33:13.480 --> 0:33:16.640
<v Speaker 1>too high for the current level of bond yields and

0:33:16.760 --> 0:33:21.160
<v Speaker 1>also the current level of most equity evaluations. Hey, I

0:33:21.200 --> 0:33:22.600
<v Speaker 1>want to go back to just some what you said

0:33:22.600 --> 0:33:24.200
<v Speaker 1>about the housing market. You said we're not in a

0:33:24.280 --> 0:33:28.480
<v Speaker 1>housing bubble? Um? Why not? I mean, we're seeing that

0:33:28.840 --> 0:33:31.600
<v Speaker 1>prices remain out of reach for many at the same

0:33:31.640 --> 0:33:34.560
<v Speaker 1>time we see that homes are selling for significantly above

0:33:34.600 --> 0:33:36.520
<v Speaker 1>asking prices. What tells you we're not in a bubble?

0:33:38.320 --> 0:33:41.760
<v Speaker 1>That the undersupply of the last decade, I mean, we

0:33:41.880 --> 0:33:45.560
<v Speaker 1>are still at a very low rate of housing starts

0:33:46.800 --> 0:33:50.280
<v Speaker 1>just on a raw basis, let alone accounting for all

0:33:50.360 --> 0:33:53.760
<v Speaker 1>the population growth in the last couple of decades. And

0:33:53.840 --> 0:33:56.600
<v Speaker 1>actually the low that we made a year ago was

0:33:56.760 --> 0:34:00.440
<v Speaker 1>right about in line with the average recession low in

0:34:00.600 --> 0:34:04.560
<v Speaker 1>housing starts we've seen over all the recessions going back

0:34:04.720 --> 0:34:07.800
<v Speaker 1>the last sixty years. And again that's not accounting for

0:34:07.920 --> 0:34:13.000
<v Speaker 1>the expansion in in household formations that's occurred over that period. Hey,

0:34:13.160 --> 0:34:15.759
<v Speaker 1>so just real quickly on inflation, because I think it's

0:34:15.800 --> 0:34:18.399
<v Speaker 1>interesting what you said about we may not keep stay

0:34:18.440 --> 0:34:21.000
<v Speaker 1>at five or six percent, right, um, but three and

0:34:21.040 --> 0:34:24.200
<v Speaker 1>a half percent would be problematic. Larry Fink of Black Rock,

0:34:24.280 --> 0:34:26.320
<v Speaker 1>we have a story out on the Bloomberg says that

0:34:26.360 --> 0:34:29.200
<v Speaker 1>investors may be underestimating the potential for a spike inflation.

0:34:29.440 --> 0:34:32.920
<v Speaker 1>Three and a half percent Is it problematic, especially if

0:34:33.000 --> 0:34:39.359
<v Speaker 1>we see continued um fiscal policy that is stimulative. Absolutely.

0:34:39.480 --> 0:34:43.680
<v Speaker 1>I mean, just considering I'm talking about from a market's perspective, Yes,

0:34:43.840 --> 0:34:45.440
<v Speaker 1>I mean, the old rule of thumb used to be

0:34:45.680 --> 0:34:49.720
<v Speaker 1>that the forward pe on the stock market should approximate

0:34:50.920 --> 0:34:55.919
<v Speaker 1>a level of twenty minus the inflation rate. The old

0:34:56.040 --> 0:34:59.080
<v Speaker 1>rule of twenty. I mean this was commonplace thirty years ago,

0:34:59.200 --> 0:35:01.920
<v Speaker 1>back when inflat was less considered to be a problem,

0:35:02.320 --> 0:35:05.279
<v Speaker 1>sort of disappeared from the lexicon because it's not been

0:35:05.320 --> 0:35:09.840
<v Speaker 1>a problem until now. But even with the dramatic ratcheting

0:35:10.160 --> 0:35:12.640
<v Speaker 1>up of forward earnings on the SMP, we're still at

0:35:12.680 --> 0:35:16.560
<v Speaker 1>twenty two times forward earnings. So you know, if we're

0:35:16.560 --> 0:35:19.040
<v Speaker 1>going to hit three and a half percent inflation, I

0:35:19.120 --> 0:35:21.200
<v Speaker 1>mean that would uh, I mean that would imply him

0:35:22.360 --> 0:35:25.440
<v Speaker 1>more than just a correction, right, I mean a bearer market.

0:35:25.560 --> 0:35:29.200
<v Speaker 1>But again, and I think investors have become so convinced,

0:35:29.360 --> 0:35:32.640
<v Speaker 1>I mean needed by FED speak that this is transitory,

0:35:32.719 --> 0:35:35.080
<v Speaker 1>that there is waiting for the right the whites of

0:35:35.120 --> 0:35:37.239
<v Speaker 1>the eyes of that three three and a half percent

0:35:37.320 --> 0:35:39.839
<v Speaker 1>inflation to stick. So it could yet be a while.

0:35:40.080 --> 0:35:44.759
<v Speaker 1>Hope springs eternal, listen, love having you on. Always do

0:35:44.960 --> 0:35:47.880
<v Speaker 1>come back soon please, UM really appreciate it. Doug Ramsey,

0:35:48.239 --> 0:35:50.399
<v Speaker 1>he is the chief investment officer at the Luthhole Group

0:35:50.520 --> 0:35:52.480
<v Speaker 1>on the phone for Minneapolis, just really kind of has

0:35:52.480 --> 0:35:55.320
<v Speaker 1>seen a lot of market cycles and understands when it

0:35:55.360 --> 0:35:59.080
<v Speaker 1>comes to valuations and uh, you know, the different metrics

0:35:59.160 --> 0:36:01.279
<v Speaker 1>to really kind of figure where the market goes from here.

0:36:03.000 --> 0:36:05.800
<v Speaker 1>Thanks for listening to Bloomberg Business Week. Download the podcast

0:36:05.880 --> 0:36:08.839
<v Speaker 1>on iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot com, and you can

0:36:08.880 --> 0:36:11.000
<v Speaker 1>also listen to our radio show at two pm Eastern

0:36:11.040 --> 0:36:13.680
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0:36:13.719 --> 0:36:14.839
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Global News