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Speaker 1: This episode is presented by Yahoo Fantasy. The most valuable

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Speaker 1: commandity I know of his information at five dollars. This

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Speaker 1: is a rat up, they tackle. You're saying that humans

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Speaker 1: need fantasy to make life bearable.

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Speaker 2: Humans need fantasy to be.

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Speaker 1: My goodness, nice, prone, best, relentless, refusing to give up.

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Speaker 1: All right, hit that horn Variables says, what's the verybody?

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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Fantasy Flex podcast from the Action Network

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Speaker 1: and Fantasy Labs, presented by Yahoo Fantasy. I am your host,

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Speaker 1: Chris RayBan, and I am joined by my co host,

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Speaker 1: one of the top rankers in the game preseason. In season,

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Speaker 1: he's won trophies and the mall at Fantasy Pros, Sean

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Speaker 1: Turn of the odds maker, Sean, It's Fantasy bus time.

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Speaker 1: How you feeling heading into this episode?

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Speaker 2: Ah? Good, Yeah, I love this.

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Speaker 3: I know this is low key one of your favorites

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Speaker 3: telling people not to draft. It's we've been telling you

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Speaker 3: go to draft who we like all summer. It's time

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Speaker 3: to tell you who we're you know, not getting a

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Speaker 3: bunch of Yeah.

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Speaker 1: I always found for me anyway. You know people, I

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Speaker 1: know people, and you know I guess you know the

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Speaker 1: for the marketing aspect of it. People always want the

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Speaker 1: sleepers and the locks and this and that, but there's

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Speaker 1: a wide range of outcomes. As we like to talk

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Speaker 1: about with a lot of these guys, we like to

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Speaker 1: talk about how guys are very close, We alter like

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Speaker 1: something a couple of tenths of a projection, and their

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Speaker 1: ranks change. So I find it always more helpful to

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Speaker 1: kind of figure out who I don't want, and not

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Speaker 1: just even players, but also just kind of tears and

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Speaker 1: spots in the draft. That's how we kind of came

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Speaker 1: upon the frozen pods here at running back, and there's

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Speaker 1: arguably wanted it every position this year where you really

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Speaker 1: don't want to be drafting from because ADP is just

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Speaker 1: average draft positions, so you never know what a specific

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Speaker 1: player where they're gonna go. They might end up being

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Speaker 1: a value if they fall far enough, but when you're

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Speaker 1: talking about kind of groups of players, you can be

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Speaker 1: a little more confident that, Okay, these guys are gonna

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Speaker 1: go in this general range. I kind of want to

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Speaker 1: avoid that range. So that's something to keep in mind

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Speaker 1: as well as we go through this. And they'll start

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Speaker 1: off a quarterback, but before we get started, just a reminder,

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Speaker 1: the ultimate twenty twenty five draft kid is here. Kerner

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Speaker 1: and I have you covered with rankings, tiers, cheat sheets,

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Speaker 1: and more to help you crush your fantasy drafts in

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty five. So if you're a new subscriber to

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Speaker 1: Fantasy Labs NFL, you can use code Flex twenty for

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Speaker 1: twenty dollars off a season long subscription. Just go to

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Speaker 1: fantasylabs dot com slash flex or download the Fantasy Labs app.

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Speaker 1: That's twenty do hours off of code fl Ex two

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Speaker 1: zero at fantasylabs dot com slash Flex. All Right, Quarterbacks Bus,

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Speaker 1: you called it last year it's Anthony Richardson and me

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Speaker 1: with Aaron Rodgers. So that was pretty simple last year.

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Speaker 1: This year little little more nuanced, but I think I

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Speaker 1: know exactly where you're going and I like it. So

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Speaker 1: who your biggest bust candidates at quarterback this year?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? So my first one's Baker Mayfield.

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Speaker 3: And this is a situation where it's not even I

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Speaker 3: think his rank is necessarily wrong at QB seven, that's

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Speaker 3: exactly where I have ranked.

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Speaker 2: He's my QB seven. But it's kind of how we.

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Speaker 3: Get to that projection, and you know, his potential floor

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Speaker 3: coming off a career or but you know, last year

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Speaker 3: he finished QB five, it was a career year, so

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Speaker 3: that's probably gonna be his ceiling. And while he has

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Speaker 3: a lot of the same you know situation this year,

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Speaker 3: he's still in the Buccaneers, he still has Mike Evans.

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Speaker 3: You know, he lost offensive cordinator Liam Cohen, so this

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Speaker 3: will be his third offensive coordinator in three years, so

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Speaker 3: we could just see some natural regression happen with him.

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Speaker 3: Plus you know, losing offensive coordinator and Cohen. But you know,

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Speaker 3: they added a Mecha Buka, who I know we're both

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Speaker 3: high on as a rookie. But you know, Chris Godwin

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Speaker 3: might not be healthy to begin this season, so he

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Speaker 3: might just have those two receivers to work with. But

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Speaker 3: he's being drafted at the top of this massive tier

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Speaker 3: at quarterback where I honestly have about five points separating

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Speaker 3: separating him and the next.

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Speaker 2: Seven quarterbacks.

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Speaker 3: And some of those guys are guys that we're highing,

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Speaker 3: like Cabilliams, Trevor Lawrence who go thirty fifty picks later.

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Speaker 3: So it's just a situation of opportunity costs where I'd

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Speaker 3: rather be getting you know, another running back, another receiver,

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Speaker 3: or a tight end in this range than taking a

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Speaker 3: guy closer to his ceiling at the top of a tier.

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Speaker 3: Even though I do agree with his rating his ranking,

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Speaker 3: it's just you're drafting him closer to his ceiling and

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Speaker 3: just the slightest regression, he's now outside the top ten

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Speaker 3: and you spent pretty high draft capital on him. So

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Speaker 3: Baker Mayfield kind of fits that mold of a guy

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Speaker 3: that I'm typically avoiding just based on where he's going.

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Speaker 3: And the other guy is Jared Goff, who might not

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Speaker 3: even be drafted in most twelve team leagues, more of

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Speaker 3: a you know, streamer type quarterback. But you know, he's

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Speaker 3: also losing his offensive coordinator, He's losing a couple key

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Speaker 3: offensive linemen. This is an offense that was just almost

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Speaker 3: perfect last year and I'm projecting for about seven and

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Speaker 3: a half fewer points per game this year. And we've

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Speaker 3: seen this happen with Jared Goff, where if the scheme

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Speaker 3: kind of falls apart, his offensive line takes a step back,

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Speaker 3: he himself can take a significant step back. So he's

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Speaker 3: still more of a best ball kind of guy with

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Speaker 3: lion stacks, but in you know, redraft. You know, season long,

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Speaker 3: head to head formats, it's gonna be tougher I think

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Speaker 3: to kind of catch those spike weeks, especially since he

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Speaker 3: doesn't offer any rushing upside whatsoever. So again, he's going

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Speaker 3: in a range where I rather take a flyer on,

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Speaker 3: you know, Drake may JJ McCarthy, Catle Williams, Trevor Lawrence type. Anyway,

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Speaker 3: I think they all provide more consistent long term upside

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Speaker 3: than golf heading in this year where you know, am

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Speaker 3: and Ross Saint Brown, like you mentioned, is kind of

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Speaker 3: already hinting this offense could take a step back this year,

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Speaker 3: So there's enough red flags to kind of pass on

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Speaker 3: golf repeating last last season's numbers at least.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, there will be probably a little bit

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Speaker 1: of volume of an increase to kind of offset that.

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Speaker 1: But GoF you mentioned it, it's really the lack of

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Speaker 1: rushing upside, and you know that's he's on my list too.

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Speaker 1: But the main guy that really sticks out I think

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Speaker 1: is Baker Mayfield. And uh, it's just because where he goes,

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Speaker 1: you have wide receivers and running backs and tight ends

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Speaker 1: that I think are just more valuable, plain and simple,

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Speaker 1: because top four quarterbacks are you know, Alan Jackson, Daniels, Hurts.

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Speaker 1: We know what those guys are gonna do. They're gonna

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Speaker 1: provide elite rushing upside. Healthy, if they're healthy, they're probably

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Speaker 1: all finishing top five or top six. Now you got Burrow, Mahomes, Mayfield,

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Speaker 1: and then Kyler bow Knicks. Kyler and bow Knicks also

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Speaker 1: have rushing up side. So Baker Mayfield is going ahead

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Speaker 1: of those guys. So I think I'm actually fading the

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Speaker 1: pocket passers period. So Mayfield is a guy that stands out.

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Speaker 1: He's the guy who has actual reasons football reasons to bust,

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Speaker 1: you know, with the injuries, with the coordinator change. But

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Speaker 1: from just a game theory standpoint, tier two level busts,

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Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow just because of the type

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Speaker 1: of quarterback they are where they're not they don't have

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Speaker 1: that top tier well, regular season for Mahomes, postseason he

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Speaker 1: runs more, but regular season doesn't have that same rushing upside.

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Speaker 1: And so you know, these guys are still going you know,

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Speaker 1: sixth round, fifth round, sixth, seventh round. I think you

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Speaker 1: still want to be building a roster in other ways,

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Speaker 1: and you can you can stream a quarterback. I just

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Speaker 1: don't think the costs you know, to the to the

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Speaker 1: upside is necessarily there. And we've seen We've seen this

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Speaker 1: two straight years with Mahomes, now Burrow. You know, he

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Speaker 1: had an amazing season last year, but we've seen other

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Speaker 1: great seasons from Burrow where he still tops out, you know,

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Speaker 1: mid thirties and touchdowns. He might not throw forty plus

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Speaker 1: again this year, and he might not stay healthy for

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Speaker 1: all seventeen games. That's also been an issue with him.

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Speaker 1: So I just think where those guys are going in

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Speaker 1: the middle, that middle tier, that's the frozen pond tier

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Speaker 1: to me, even though the talent is great with you

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Speaker 1: know those guys, but but Mayfield is definitely the guy

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Speaker 1: that kind of sticks out. Even beyond that, I think

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Speaker 1: he's there's just a lot of reasons why he could

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Speaker 1: end up, you know, falling short, especially as a draft

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Speaker 1: pick in that range. Fantasy Flex listeners, Chris Raybond here,

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Speaker 1: this is your last call for our free Fantasy Flex

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Speaker 1: party in Chicago, presented by Yahoo Fantasy. The last chance

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Speaker 1: Fantasy draft. Winner takes home the Fantasy Flex belt and

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Speaker 1: walso we bet in some NFL preseason watching some college

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Speaker 1: football right there in the bar. So find the rs

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Speaker 1: VP link in the episode description to save your spot.

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Speaker 1: presented by Yahoo Fantasy. All Right, running back, running back.

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Speaker 1: There's always a bunch of busts at the running back position.

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Speaker 1: I Nick Chubb and Jonathan Brooks last year. So yeah,

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Speaker 1: I'm always like these injured guys just start the year,

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Speaker 1: never a good look. Where are you going this year?

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Speaker 1: I think I know you're going. It's not an injured guy,

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Speaker 1: but it's an injured It might be injured ego reputation

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Speaker 1: something like that, but yeah, yeah, talk to me.

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Speaker 3: Both of these guys are fully healthy at the moment

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Speaker 3: that I know of. But the first one is Brice

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Speaker 3: Hall because he's really the start of the frozen pond

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Speaker 3: tier at RB fourteen, where I really, you know, start

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Speaker 3: to have question marks for a lot of the backs

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Speaker 3: in this range, and he's the guy where you know

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Speaker 3: there's no question he has a talent to be a

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Speaker 3: solid RB one. But you know, with this coaching staff

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Speaker 3: coming over from Detroit, sounds like they do want to

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Speaker 3: have more of a Gibbs Montgomery tech committee where you

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Speaker 3: know Hall is going to be splitting work with Braylan Allen.

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Speaker 3: So you know that that just makes it tougher to

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Speaker 3: trust Breese Hall, especially just when you consider this offense

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Speaker 3: with justin Fields under center. You know, every time justin

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Speaker 3: Field scrambles, that's a potential target for Breese Hall that

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Speaker 3: gets wiped out.

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Speaker 2: So I much rather just wait and get.

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Speaker 3: Allen to invest in this backfield, whereas you know Breece Hall,

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Speaker 3: especially RB fourteen, I think people are just kind of

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Speaker 3: overlooking the potential floor with his role heading in the season.

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Speaker 2: So you know, I'm not I'm not too far off.

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Speaker 3: I have him RB seventeen, but just based on his

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Speaker 3: floor ceiling profile, he's definitely a player I'm not drafting here.

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Speaker 3: And then the other guy would be Caleb Johnson of

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Speaker 3: the Steelers. And I love the landing spot because my

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Speaker 3: comp for him heading into the draft was Nauji Harris.

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Speaker 3: So the fact that Steelers drafted him after moving on

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Speaker 3: from nause sets up perfectly for him to just inherit

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Speaker 3: the full nausey role, and I think the market is

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Speaker 3: kind of assuming that to be the case. But that's

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Speaker 3: really the ceiling for him. But there is a path

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Speaker 3: where you know, he ends up losing more work to

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Speaker 3: Jalen Warren. I think people are kind of overlooking Kenneth

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Speaker 3: Gainwell just being a thorn in everybody's side where you

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Speaker 3: can't draft Kenneth Gainwell, That's not what I'm saying, But

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Speaker 3: he's going to play enough to potentially, you know, lower

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Speaker 3: the floor ceiling of both, you know, Caleb Johnson and

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Speaker 3: Jalen Warren. So you know, Caleb's kind of just pigeonholed

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Speaker 3: into that early day where I don't see the four

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Speaker 3: ceiling combo where he should be drafted inside the top thirty.

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Speaker 3: So again, you know, I'm not too far off in

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Speaker 3: terms of rank, but you're missing out on some guys

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Speaker 3: with you know, league winning upside. In my opinion, the

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Speaker 3: guy you mentioned in the Sleepers pot, Tyrone Tracy, is

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Speaker 3: being drafted right behind him. I love Tyrone Tracy way

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Speaker 3: more than Caleb Johnson. You know, you got guys like

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Speaker 3: Jordan Mason, JK. Dobbins that go much later that I

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Speaker 3: rather have. So he's just going way too early for

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Speaker 3: me to be drafting. But his his ADP has taken

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Speaker 3: a bit of a hit. I think he was up

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Speaker 3: to like RB twenty four, he's down to like RB

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Speaker 3: twenty eight. I still won't consider him less he falls

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Speaker 3: outside of the top thirty, though.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's it's it's tough to know what, like, what's

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Speaker 1: going on there because Gaine Will is another guy who

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Speaker 1: you just haven't you know, haven't seen it we got

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Speaker 1: signed to Pittsburgh and that he's essentially being treated it

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Speaker 1: is like a kind of like a starter with them,

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Speaker 1: and you know, we we don't have that many preseason

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Speaker 1: reps to go off of it, and Johnson's playing a

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Speaker 1: bunch of reps because he's a rookie. So it's it's

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Speaker 1: tough to know what to do. I definitely did well

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Speaker 1: where him. I thought he looked I thought he looked

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Speaker 1: pretty good in the last game though, So I don't

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Speaker 1: wanna I don't want to overthink it either with him

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Speaker 1: because I think throughout the season he probably uh kind

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Speaker 1: of increases in value, but yeah, I don't know if

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Speaker 1: he's gonna hit the ground running the way we thought.

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Speaker 1: Uh it just take that full nause your role right

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Speaker 1: off the bat. So yeah, it's a lot. You know,

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Speaker 1: we knew some of these rookie running backs were gonna

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Speaker 1: be overvalue based on where they were going in basketball

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Speaker 1: all summer, like everyone was just high on everyone. So

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Speaker 1: now we're kind of seeing these things. Uh, these things

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Speaker 1: start to correct, and yeah, I think Johnson. Johnson has

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Speaker 1: been one of the losers of that whole uh period.

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Speaker 2: Uh for me.

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Speaker 1: Got a few names here, Number one, Joe Mixon just

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Speaker 1: don't like the age, don't like the uh the the

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Speaker 1: depth chart at running backs probably better this year than

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Speaker 1: it was last year with you know, got at least

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Speaker 1: they probably feel that way with Chubb and then you

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Speaker 1: got Woody Marx. There a Goombawawe still hanging around playing

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Speaker 1: third downs, probably special teams. So and no one talks

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Speaker 1: about this, but Houston has a fullback this year, right,

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Speaker 1: So they they moved on from Slowick last year that

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Speaker 1: was his offense. Now they got a new offensive coordinator,

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Speaker 1: Kaylee kind of a mcveig guy. But they also have

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Speaker 1: a fullback on the roster, well two fullbacks on the roster,

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Speaker 1: and that that's just a different type of running style too.

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Speaker 2: So who knows.

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Speaker 1: With mixing. We saw Damian Pierce really struggle after they

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Speaker 1: switched scheme running schemes a couple of years before that,

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Speaker 1: So mixing I'm out on. I just don't like the

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Speaker 1: secrecy with the injury. I don't like the age. I

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Speaker 1: don't like anything about the situation in Houston. Brian Robinson Jr.

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Speaker 1: Early down back who was in a good situation but

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Speaker 1: now is on the trade block. I don't know what

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Speaker 1: that means, but we kind of tried to figure out

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Speaker 1: his landing spots, but it doesn't seem like there's many

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Speaker 1: spots where he would go and retain his value. Maybe

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Speaker 1: Dallas he could go and uh surpass it, but I

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Speaker 1: think Washington was a spot where you know he was

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Speaker 1: it was one of the better spots for him, just

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Speaker 1: giving the type of back that he is. So yeah,

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Speaker 1: I don't I don't want to draft him anywhere inside.

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Speaker 1: I don't want him as a top three running back

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Speaker 1: on my team anymore. Uh, Pachecko, I think just because

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Speaker 1: he's being treated as a starter and or just because

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Speaker 1: he's not playing much in the preseason. I'm not convinced.

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Speaker 1: I still think he's a guy who could move his

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Speaker 1: goal line snaps because he's never been good at punching

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Speaker 1: it in. It's a team that doesn't run much to

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Speaker 1: begin with. They still they're still gonna be competition in

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Speaker 1: the backfield regardless. I don't know who it's going to

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Speaker 1: be from necessarily. It could be Hunt, it could be Mitchell,

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Speaker 1: could be Richard Smith, it could be some guy they

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Speaker 1: trade for. They could trade for Robinson, just too many

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Speaker 1: question marks. Didn't like the decreasing yards after contact for Pacheco,

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Speaker 1: and I think they he's just kind of a tell

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Speaker 1: in the passing game a lot of times that you know,

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Speaker 1: they don't throw many passes to him, and when they do,

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Speaker 1: good things don't usually happen. So I don't think he's

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Speaker 1: gonna I don't think he's long for that that kind

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Speaker 1: of job. I think it's more of a cch situation.

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Speaker 1: And uh and one last guy, Scataboo still goes in

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Speaker 1: the top forty. I think that's too too much for him.

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Speaker 1: I think he might end up being the number three

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Speaker 1: running back for a good portion of the year because

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Speaker 1: he's missed so much time and Devin Singletary, they're still

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Speaker 1: paying that guy a lot, so they might be that

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Speaker 1: confirmation bias where you got kind of got to justify

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Speaker 1: what you paid for him and use him as the

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Speaker 1: back up a little more.

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Speaker 3: So.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Scataboo, I think you could. You could get a

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Speaker 1: lot of more upside from other guys. And I think

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Speaker 1: Tracy is the guy really that you want in the

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Speaker 1: Giants backfield anyway. He's he goes into the surgy sometimes

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Speaker 1: a running back. So uh yeah, no, no, I'm out

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Speaker 1: on Scataboo as well. Oh and Ted Bigsby too, because

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Speaker 1: he's he's just flying up not buying it. I think

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Speaker 1: that's I think it was either a trade showcase or

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Speaker 1: he's gonna end up like Shan Tucker.

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Speaker 2: By the Bigsby hype. Yeah.

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Speaker 3: Does he have the highest ADP now the three or

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Speaker 3: is it still ETN because it's big.

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Speaker 2: It depends on what.

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Speaker 1: But yeah, he's kind of he's kind of even doubt.

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Speaker 1: I think he's he's up to thirty seven and and

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Speaker 1: so you know he's and that's in recent very recent drafts.

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Speaker 1: In some drafts he's overtaken ETN. It just it just

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Speaker 1: depends what time span and what you know where you're looking.

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Speaker 1: But yeah, he's going ahead of et I think that's

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Speaker 1: just too reactionary. What do you think of it?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, well that's that backfield.

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Speaker 3: I think, you know, one of these guys is probably

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Speaker 3: going to be a league winner, So I'm not fading

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Speaker 3: it at all. But I think in these situations, I

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Speaker 3: still want to invest in this backfield.

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Speaker 2: Don't know who.

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Speaker 3: If I'm being honest, I typically go with the guy

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Speaker 3: that's going the latest, and that's Twutan, who has the

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Speaker 3: most upside.

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Speaker 2: So I think that's a good combo to have. I've

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Speaker 2: I've done that with the forty nine ers, sometimes getting

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Speaker 2: the wrong guy.

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Speaker 3: But still the idea is there of just take the

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Speaker 3: cheapest guy. We want to invest in this backfield. But yeah,

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Speaker 3: if it's either Tank or ETN get traded before the

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Speaker 3: season starts, that I mean that could happen. That would

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Speaker 3: be massive, So I think, yeah, investing in the situation

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Speaker 3: is warranted. You know, Big Speed or ETN could end

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Speaker 3: up being an RB two and I wouldn't be shocked.

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Speaker 3: But in these situations, I got the cheapest guy, and

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Speaker 3: currently that's Tootin.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, like I mean, Big three was he's just flying

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Speaker 1: up boards because he got you know, like a nominal

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Speaker 1: start in a meaningless preseason game, which, yeah, I'm not

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Speaker 1: buying it at all. I think you gotta just fade that.

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Speaker 1: Let's do a segment presented by Yahoo Fantasy. We are

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Speaker 1: calling what makes you Number one? Kerner? We're just gonna

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Speaker 1: get a piece of advice from you here. What is

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Speaker 1: the top red flag or the first thing that you're

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Speaker 1: looking for to determine if you think a player will

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Speaker 1: be a fantasy football bust.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: So, I think there's really two definitions here that lead

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Speaker 3: to the same conclusion. And the first one is just

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Speaker 3: the players being draft probably closer to their ceiling than

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Speaker 3: the market realizes. Whether that's due to having a career

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Speaker 3: year the year before where they're due for incoming regression

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Speaker 3: or assuming that they're going to bounce back for whatever reason,

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Speaker 3: can be a red flag for me, where the markets

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Speaker 3: is simply overrating their outlook, which leads me to the

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Speaker 3: second point is the players is being drafted too high,

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Speaker 3: whether that's just given the nature of the position. Like

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Speaker 3: we've talked about, there's certain parts of the draft where

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Speaker 3: we're avoiding tight end or quarterback. So it's just they're

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Speaker 3: going in a part of the draft where it doesn't

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Speaker 3: make sense to be drafting a player closer to their ceiling.

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Speaker 3: So at the end of the day, they're just a

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Speaker 3: player where they have a much lower floor than the

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Speaker 3: market realizes and they're being drafted too close to their ceiling,

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Speaker 3: where in those situations, I'm just not going to get

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Speaker 3: that many shares, if at all, of that player. So

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Speaker 3: that's kind of how I define you know, what a

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Speaker 3: player is. You know they're more likely to bust than

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Speaker 3: a sleeper pick my projections.

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Speaker 1: There you have it. That's our what makes You Number

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Speaker 1: one segment presented by Yahoo Fantasy. And as a reminder,

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Speaker 1: this episode of The Fantasy Flex is presented by Yahoo

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Speaker 1: Fantasy and it is the best time of the year.

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Speaker 1: With the NFL season coming up, fantasy football drafts are

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Speaker 1: in full swing and this year, Sean and I are

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Speaker 1: playing over at Yahoo Fantasy and they've been taking it

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Speaker 1: up a notch giving you a fantasy football experience like

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Speaker 1: innovative features that they've been rolling out this season, and

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Speaker 1: in fact to celebrate twenty eight years of fantasy football greatness.

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Speaker 1: Yahoo Fantasy is dropping twenty eight big new features over

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Speaker 1: twenty eight days throughout the month of August, and to

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Speaker 1: kick things off, they've already dropped the Yahoo Fantasy Guillotine Leagues,

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Speaker 1: a killer new way to play fantasy football where the

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Speaker 1: lowest scoring team each week gets chopped until there is

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Speaker 1: one team left standing at the end. So, with the

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Speaker 1: NFL season coming up soon, now the time get you

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Speaker 1: we've made together give the new mode on Yahoo would try,

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00:21:01,400 --> 00:21:04,239
Speaker 1: or you can still play your more traditional leagues. If

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Speaker 1: you're into that. You got head to head private, you

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Speaker 1: got public leagues as well. So stay tuned for more

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Speaker 1: killer announcements from Yahoo Fantasy, and start playing Yahoo Fantasy

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Speaker 1: football right now at Yahoo Fantasy dot com slash flex.

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Speaker 1: It's Yahoo Fantasy dot Com slash Flex all right Wide

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Speaker 1: Receiver Bust twenty twenty five Sean Kerner. Last year you

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Speaker 1: had Christian Kirk. That was a good call. I had

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Speaker 1: Curtis Samuel, which which sounds crazy in retrospect that he

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Speaker 1: was even being considered where he was and uh and

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Speaker 1: Jaden reed, which that that didn't really he actually had

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Speaker 1: a better season than you would think, but it was

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Speaker 1: like all front loaded. So he's an interesting case. Now

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Speaker 1: he might be undervalued. But where are you going this

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Speaker 1: year in terms of who you think is going to

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Speaker 1: bust a wide receiver? Because that's that's an important one

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Speaker 1: because wide receiver goes like the draft has kind of

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Speaker 1: sharpened up in the sense that more wide receivers are

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Speaker 1: going earlier and earlier. So you're talking about you know,

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Speaker 1: top thirty, you know, almost into the forties, going in

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Speaker 1: your first you know, seven eight rounds where you still

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Speaker 1: want to look at floor. So this is very important

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Speaker 1: here who you think is gonna not Who don't you

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Speaker 1: think is going to pan out?

432
00:22:17,119 --> 00:22:19,240
Speaker 3: Yeah, So I'm going to be very aggressive here because

433
00:22:19,280 --> 00:22:21,560
Speaker 3: these two guys I'm actually high on talent wise, but

434
00:22:21,840 --> 00:22:24,880
Speaker 3: based on their situation, based on where they're being drafted,

435
00:22:24,920 --> 00:22:27,960
Speaker 3: I think they're a bit riskier than people realize. In

436
00:22:28,040 --> 00:22:30,840
Speaker 3: the first one is Garrett Wilson kind of going in

437
00:22:30,920 --> 00:22:34,800
Speaker 3: that frozen pond tier, that solid wide receiver two tier.

438
00:22:35,840 --> 00:22:38,680
Speaker 3: You know, he's certainly one of the best wide receivers

439
00:22:39,280 --> 00:22:41,680
Speaker 3: in the league. But similar to you know, early career

440
00:22:41,880 --> 00:22:46,760
Speaker 3: Terry McLaurin, he just hasn't had a legit quarterback to

441
00:22:46,840 --> 00:22:48,879
Speaker 3: hit his ceiling. You know, it didn't happen last year

442
00:22:48,880 --> 00:22:52,960
Speaker 3: with Aaron Rodgers. And then this year they're roll Justin

443
00:22:53,040 --> 00:22:56,480
Speaker 3: Fields as their quarterback, who I think will be the

444
00:22:56,520 --> 00:22:58,280
Speaker 3: starter as long as he could stay healthy. And I

445
00:22:58,359 --> 00:23:02,399
Speaker 3: think that really robs Wilson of his upside where he

446
00:23:02,480 --> 00:23:04,600
Speaker 3: might have a high floor because he is the only

447
00:23:04,680 --> 00:23:07,800
Speaker 3: option in this passing attack, it's kind of unclear who's

448
00:23:07,800 --> 00:23:10,280
Speaker 3: going to step up to be the number two option,

449
00:23:10,480 --> 00:23:13,159
Speaker 3: so that that might make it easier for defenses to

450
00:23:13,520 --> 00:23:16,639
Speaker 3: you know, pay attention to him, slow him down specifically.

451
00:23:16,760 --> 00:23:19,000
Speaker 3: But you know, Justin Fields is going to be doing

452
00:23:19,040 --> 00:23:21,280
Speaker 3: a ton of scrambling, and like like I said with

453
00:23:21,359 --> 00:23:25,040
Speaker 3: Breece Hull, every time Justin Field scrambles, that's a potential

454
00:23:25,119 --> 00:23:28,080
Speaker 3: target that's taken away. So it really just caps his

455
00:23:28,240 --> 00:23:32,440
Speaker 3: floor ceiling combo. So my projections just can't get there too.

456
00:23:32,760 --> 00:23:35,920
Speaker 3: You know, mid range wide receiver two value for him.

457
00:23:36,000 --> 00:23:39,119
Speaker 3: He's more of a low end wide receiver two. And again,

458
00:23:39,200 --> 00:23:41,800
Speaker 3: some of the guys that were high on you know,

459
00:23:41,960 --> 00:23:45,960
Speaker 3: Travis Hunter, Romo Dunes, a, Rocky Piersoll or my guys

460
00:23:46,440 --> 00:23:49,120
Speaker 3: like they offer a similar ceiling that you can get

461
00:23:49,200 --> 00:23:51,040
Speaker 3: much later. So it's just a weird part in the

462
00:23:51,119 --> 00:23:54,040
Speaker 3: draft where I'm not, you know, aggressively targeting someone like

463
00:23:54,080 --> 00:23:57,680
Speaker 3: Wilson anyway, And that brings me in to my second guy,

464
00:23:58,000 --> 00:24:00,639
Speaker 3: who is a rookie a lot of people are high on,

465
00:24:01,600 --> 00:24:04,600
Speaker 3: and that's Tech McMillan, and I definitely want to hear

466
00:24:04,600 --> 00:24:07,119
Speaker 3: your thoughts on him because he is a really tricky

467
00:24:07,680 --> 00:24:10,680
Speaker 3: projection for me, because I think he's a great talent.

468
00:24:11,119 --> 00:24:13,560
Speaker 3: You know, he reminds me of like a Drake London

469
00:24:14,280 --> 00:24:17,840
Speaker 3: and Kenny Galladay, the Lions version of Kenny Galladay.

470
00:24:18,800 --> 00:24:20,240
Speaker 2: So I think he has a ton of upside.

471
00:24:20,320 --> 00:24:23,720
Speaker 3: But he's been going inside the top twenty on some

472
00:24:23,920 --> 00:24:27,119
Speaker 3: sites recently, which I think is really aggressive for rookie.

473
00:24:27,560 --> 00:24:29,879
Speaker 3: And this is a guy that, yes, he should be

474
00:24:29,920 --> 00:24:33,360
Speaker 3: the number one target for the Panthers, but you're also

475
00:24:33,480 --> 00:24:37,040
Speaker 3: banking on him, you know, forming chemistry with Bryce Young

476
00:24:37,280 --> 00:24:40,480
Speaker 3: early on, and Bryce Young, you know, continue to prove

477
00:24:40,520 --> 00:24:42,560
Speaker 3: in year three and Bryce Young is kind of a

478
00:24:42,600 --> 00:24:46,200
Speaker 3: tricky quarterback where it takes receivers some time to build

479
00:24:46,280 --> 00:24:49,320
Speaker 3: chemistry with and you know they're still going to be

480
00:24:49,560 --> 00:24:54,359
Speaker 3: pretty conservative, pretty run heavy with Chuba Howard and Rick o'dowell. Now,

481
00:24:54,480 --> 00:25:00,479
Speaker 3: so you know last year Marvin Harrison was taken inside

482
00:25:00,520 --> 00:25:02,520
Speaker 3: the top twenty. I thought that was a bit too high.

483
00:25:03,400 --> 00:25:06,160
Speaker 3: Malik Neighbors turned out to be the value at wide

484
00:25:06,200 --> 00:25:10,360
Speaker 3: receiver twenty five. But typically rookie wide receivers aren't really

485
00:25:10,480 --> 00:25:12,879
Speaker 3: projected to go inside the top twenty because they do

486
00:25:13,119 --> 00:25:15,399
Speaker 3: offer you know, a wide range of outcomes. That's why

487
00:25:15,440 --> 00:25:18,399
Speaker 3: I was willing to wait for Brian Thomas junior. For

488
00:25:18,520 --> 00:25:22,120
Speaker 3: Lad McConkie, I'd just rather take flyers later in the draft.

489
00:25:22,200 --> 00:25:25,639
Speaker 3: So not getting him at wide receiver twenty. If you

490
00:25:25,720 --> 00:25:28,840
Speaker 3: were to fall outside the top twenty six, sure I'll

491
00:25:28,880 --> 00:25:31,320
Speaker 3: take a flyer on him, but usually there's always one

492
00:25:31,359 --> 00:25:34,680
Speaker 3: person in the draft that takes him, you know, early on.

493
00:25:34,960 --> 00:25:38,200
Speaker 3: So if you look at my projections, I have them

494
00:25:38,240 --> 00:25:42,840
Speaker 3: around seventy catches, nine hundred yards, five and a half touchdowns.

495
00:25:43,160 --> 00:25:46,920
Speaker 3: That puts some wide receiver thirty two in my rankings,

496
00:25:47,880 --> 00:25:51,199
Speaker 3: well below you know, his ADP. But if you look

497
00:25:51,240 --> 00:25:54,040
Speaker 3: at the prop market, it's actually much lower than me.

498
00:25:55,400 --> 00:25:58,920
Speaker 3: The prop market has them around sixty catches, eight hundred

499
00:25:58,920 --> 00:26:03,159
Speaker 3: and twenty five yards and five touchdowns. So if you

500
00:26:03,240 --> 00:26:06,080
Speaker 3: really like teed go bet on all his overs in

501
00:26:06,160 --> 00:26:08,280
Speaker 3: the prop market. But it just goes to show the

502
00:26:08,359 --> 00:26:11,000
Speaker 3: wide range of outcomes I think people have in terms

503
00:26:11,040 --> 00:26:16,120
Speaker 3: of like projecting his floor ceiling, where yes, he could

504
00:26:16,160 --> 00:26:18,480
Speaker 3: be a top twenty receiver this year, but his wide

505
00:26:18,680 --> 00:26:21,080
Speaker 3: his range of outcomes is a bit too wide for

506
00:26:21,200 --> 00:26:23,159
Speaker 3: me to, you know, spend that high draft capal on

507
00:26:23,680 --> 00:26:26,720
Speaker 3: and I'd rather just take shots outside of the top thirty.

508
00:26:28,560 --> 00:26:30,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, I completely agree on Ted. I'm I'm with you

509
00:26:31,280 --> 00:26:35,320
Speaker 1: in you look at guys like Lad McConkey last year,

510
00:26:35,480 --> 00:26:37,280
Speaker 1: where he was going in drafts where you could get

511
00:26:37,359 --> 00:26:40,240
Speaker 1: him outside the top thirty. Those are the type of

512
00:26:40,280 --> 00:26:44,119
Speaker 1: guys where you're going to really if you're consistently drafting

513
00:26:44,160 --> 00:26:46,000
Speaker 1: those kind of guys, that's where you're really going to

514
00:26:46,119 --> 00:26:47,879
Speaker 1: kind of hit on these rookies and be able to

515
00:26:47,920 --> 00:26:50,439
Speaker 1: take advantage when you're drafted them close to their ceiling.

516
00:26:51,080 --> 00:26:53,399
Speaker 1: It's a completely different matter. Now you open yourself up

517
00:26:53,440 --> 00:26:56,679
Speaker 1: to he's just in any other pick, and it probably

518
00:26:56,760 --> 00:26:58,160
Speaker 1: is more likely to bust in that range.

519
00:26:58,160 --> 00:26:58,280
Speaker 2: You know.

520
00:26:58,359 --> 00:27:00,639
Speaker 1: It's it's one of those situations where I think you

521
00:27:00,760 --> 00:27:03,040
Speaker 1: got to kind of take what the board gives you,

522
00:27:03,240 --> 00:27:06,720
Speaker 1: and he's in that frozen pond tier at receiver, which

523
00:27:07,119 --> 00:27:11,520
Speaker 1: because receivers are being drafted so aggressively, kind of you know,

524
00:27:11,760 --> 00:27:14,359
Speaker 1: it's like the wide receiver two tier for running backs

525
00:27:14,359 --> 00:27:17,800
Speaker 1: and receiver the number two tier for the running back

526
00:27:17,840 --> 00:27:19,600
Speaker 1: two tier, and the wide receiver two tiers, both of

527
00:27:19,640 --> 00:27:22,640
Speaker 1: those are kind of like frozen pondie. But because wide

528
00:27:22,680 --> 00:27:25,719
Speaker 1: receivers are going so early, Uh, it's the wide receivers

529
00:27:25,720 --> 00:27:27,320
Speaker 1: who actually kind of come up first that you're you

530
00:27:27,359 --> 00:27:29,439
Speaker 1: could kind of fade and get either the running back

531
00:27:29,480 --> 00:27:31,119
Speaker 1: of your choice at you know, at the top of

532
00:27:31,240 --> 00:27:34,560
Speaker 1: those of before the frozen pond tter might officially get underway,

533
00:27:34,760 --> 00:27:37,600
Speaker 1: or you can get you can take a shot at

534
00:27:37,760 --> 00:27:40,840
Speaker 1: a week quarterback in a week tight end something like that. So, uh,

535
00:27:40,880 --> 00:27:42,240
Speaker 1: there's just a lot of ways to go in that

536
00:27:42,520 --> 00:27:45,080
Speaker 1: in that spot where I think, yeah, I think Ted

537
00:27:45,280 --> 00:27:49,200
Speaker 1: is just it's too many presumptions and assumptions that he's

538
00:27:49,240 --> 00:27:50,840
Speaker 1: just going to be the number one guy, that that

539
00:27:50,960 --> 00:27:53,080
Speaker 1: Bryce Young is going to be the guy he was

540
00:27:53,480 --> 00:27:56,239
Speaker 1: for the last five six games the whole year. Uh,

541
00:27:56,600 --> 00:27:59,200
Speaker 1: and you know, I mean Coker wont to won a

542
00:27:59,280 --> 00:28:01,960
Speaker 1: job last year. Essentially, you know, they always They're always

543
00:28:01,960 --> 00:28:04,880
Speaker 1: gonna have guys challenging. They have Coker, they have would Get,

544
00:28:05,000 --> 00:28:07,560
Speaker 1: they have yeah, you know here, even the guys at

545
00:28:07,560 --> 00:28:09,360
Speaker 1: the bottom of the jet tart to play well. Renfro

546
00:28:09,640 --> 00:28:11,920
Speaker 1: More has always been kind of He was starting games

547
00:28:11,960 --> 00:28:14,520
Speaker 1: for them last year, so uh yeah, I think it's

548
00:28:14,760 --> 00:28:16,800
Speaker 1: thing's a tough situation with him, and he could just

549
00:28:16,840 --> 00:28:18,560
Speaker 1: be a lot of incompletions because he's that kind of guy.

550
00:28:18,640 --> 00:28:23,199
Speaker 1: Where tested exactly where did Marvin Harrison Junior end up

551
00:28:23,280 --> 00:28:23,639
Speaker 1: last year?

552
00:28:23,720 --> 00:28:29,280
Speaker 2: Was he receiver twelve or oh ap, yeah, thirteen?

553
00:28:29,440 --> 00:28:31,920
Speaker 3: I think he peaked at thirteen around this time last year,

554
00:28:32,480 --> 00:28:34,680
Speaker 3: and it felt similar where you and I were both

555
00:28:34,720 --> 00:28:36,960
Speaker 3: high on him, like, yeah, he's a generational talent, but

556
00:28:37,400 --> 00:28:40,400
Speaker 3: it's tough to draft him that high. Yeah, just given

557
00:28:40,480 --> 00:28:42,800
Speaker 3: the range of outcomes. He's a rookie, so he doesn't

558
00:28:42,840 --> 00:28:46,120
Speaker 3: have to be great year one, and Marvin Harrison was

559
00:28:46,600 --> 00:28:48,640
Speaker 3: pretty good last year, but he was a disappointment just

560
00:28:48,720 --> 00:28:51,680
Speaker 3: because he was drafted so high. That's kind of how

561
00:28:51,760 --> 00:28:54,480
Speaker 3: I viewed tet where he could be a little streaker

562
00:28:54,800 --> 00:28:57,640
Speaker 3: than people realize, where if he is leaning on more

563
00:28:57,680 --> 00:29:00,480
Speaker 3: downfield targets, he might be more of a boo bust

564
00:29:00,560 --> 00:29:02,760
Speaker 3: where if you're taking him as your wide receiver too,

565
00:29:03,240 --> 00:29:04,840
Speaker 3: you kind of need him to be a little bit

566
00:29:04,880 --> 00:29:08,440
Speaker 3: more stable. So it's just kind of a dangerous range

567
00:29:08,480 --> 00:29:11,080
Speaker 3: to be drafting a guy that kind of fits that profile.

568
00:29:11,760 --> 00:29:14,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, mart Harrison uh peaked inside the top ten.

569
00:29:15,640 --> 00:29:20,880
Speaker 3: That yeah wide receiver nine, right, like yeah, yeah, yeah,

570
00:29:20,960 --> 00:29:25,040
Speaker 3: and we were, you know, projecting him like seventeen or

571
00:29:25,120 --> 00:29:27,239
Speaker 3: something like that. So it was tough to get him.

572
00:29:27,280 --> 00:29:32,040
Speaker 3: But just the floor is lower with pretty much every rookie. No,

573
00:29:32,240 --> 00:29:35,320
Speaker 3: no rookie is immune to floor. So that's why I

574
00:29:35,480 --> 00:29:38,840
Speaker 3: just I kind of hesitate taking him too early and

575
00:29:39,080 --> 00:29:40,880
Speaker 3: take take my chances later in the draft.

576
00:29:41,360 --> 00:29:42,800
Speaker 1: And even if you compare him to some of the

577
00:29:42,880 --> 00:29:45,760
Speaker 1: other rookies, I mean, he's the guy with the worst

578
00:29:45,840 --> 00:29:50,080
Speaker 1: quarterback right yea and the highest savy P so of

579
00:29:50,160 --> 00:29:53,320
Speaker 1: those you know, top top rookies. So yeah, it's it's

580
00:29:53,360 --> 00:29:56,280
Speaker 1: sort of shaky there with with Tech could be a

581
00:29:56,280 --> 00:30:00,520
Speaker 1: good player, but it's just, yeah, the contested catches a lot.

582
00:30:00,800 --> 00:30:02,280
Speaker 1: You're kind of banking on a lot of them going

583
00:30:02,360 --> 00:30:05,600
Speaker 1: the right way early in his career to pay off

584
00:30:05,720 --> 00:30:10,360
Speaker 1: that ADP. For me, I got Tyreek Hill first first

585
00:30:10,360 --> 00:30:13,960
Speaker 1: and foremost, I do not feel good about him at

586
00:30:14,160 --> 00:30:17,120
Speaker 1: you know, right out to the top twelve. He's kind

587
00:30:17,160 --> 00:30:19,280
Speaker 1: of that frozen pond tier at wide receiver, like the

588
00:30:19,400 --> 00:30:21,840
Speaker 1: real early edition of it, you know, before we even

589
00:30:21,880 --> 00:30:25,680
Speaker 1: get to the Garrett Wilsons. I just think the writings

590
00:30:25,720 --> 00:30:27,800
Speaker 1: on the wall with this guy. We saw him go

591
00:30:27,960 --> 00:30:31,640
Speaker 1: from two straight seventeen one hundred yard seasons his first

592
00:30:31,760 --> 00:30:36,920
Speaker 1: years with Miami to just nothing last year. I mean, yes,

593
00:30:37,000 --> 00:30:39,160
Speaker 1: he put up numbers, but it was just he almost

594
00:30:39,240 --> 00:30:41,080
Speaker 1: like got his production cut in half. And he yes,

595
00:30:41,120 --> 00:30:44,920
Speaker 1: he was hurt, but he was also he turned thirty,

596
00:30:45,000 --> 00:30:47,280
Speaker 1: and now he is going to be you know, he's

597
00:30:47,280 --> 00:30:49,200
Speaker 1: on the wrong side of thirty. He has got to

598
00:30:49,200 --> 00:30:54,600
Speaker 1: always relied on just ridiculous generational speed, which as you

599
00:30:54,640 --> 00:30:56,760
Speaker 1: get older, that's going to kind of die down. And

600
00:30:56,880 --> 00:31:01,480
Speaker 1: I just think that Miami offense figured out, uh and

601
00:31:02,160 --> 00:31:04,480
Speaker 1: it affected Waddle a little bit more. But you saw

602
00:31:04,640 --> 00:31:07,240
Speaker 1: last year where who are the most effective pass catches

603
00:31:07,280 --> 00:31:11,640
Speaker 1: for that team, John Smith and Devin Devon Han catching

604
00:31:11,720 --> 00:31:16,240
Speaker 1: these you know underneath just quick release throws because the

605
00:31:16,360 --> 00:31:20,160
Speaker 1: downfield stuff defense is just they're they're sitting on it nowadays.

606
00:31:20,200 --> 00:31:22,520
Speaker 1: And if anything, happens to Tua, who is a big

607
00:31:22,600 --> 00:31:26,520
Speaker 1: injury risk just because of the concussion history. They they're

608
00:31:26,560 --> 00:31:28,680
Speaker 1: gonna be in some in some problems. I mean, I

609
00:31:28,760 --> 00:31:32,200
Speaker 1: know yours has flashed, but you just it's just not

610
00:31:32,320 --> 00:31:34,080
Speaker 1: a good situation. I think the riting's on the wall.

611
00:31:34,160 --> 00:31:37,040
Speaker 1: Rather jump off a year too early and that it

612
00:31:37,160 --> 00:31:39,640
Speaker 1: might that you know, it might have been it last year,

613
00:31:39,720 --> 00:31:41,640
Speaker 1: like he could go he could go down again, went

614
00:31:41,720 --> 00:31:45,000
Speaker 1: from eight seventeen ninety nine to nine to fifty nine

615
00:31:45,080 --> 00:31:46,760
Speaker 1: in terms of yards, and he played what he played

616
00:31:46,800 --> 00:31:49,440
Speaker 1: full seventeen games last year, whereas the year before you

617
00:31:49,480 --> 00:31:53,840
Speaker 1: actually played sixteen. So uh, just a big, big red

618
00:31:54,040 --> 00:31:57,000
Speaker 1: red flag literally one hundred and twelve yards per game

619
00:31:57,120 --> 00:32:00,479
Speaker 1: to fifty six, so exactly cut in half. I mean,

620
00:32:00,600 --> 00:32:03,080
Speaker 1: what when is the last time that even happened? Do

621
00:32:03,160 --> 00:32:07,600
Speaker 1: you remember like a guy who had that like big

622
00:32:07,680 --> 00:32:10,840
Speaker 1: of a drop off still going in the top fifteen,

623
00:32:11,160 --> 00:32:13,200
Speaker 1: like one to twelve to fifient six, Like can that

624
00:32:13,360 --> 00:32:14,080
Speaker 1: ever happen? No?

625
00:32:14,240 --> 00:32:17,880
Speaker 3: But I mean it does happen, like Hulo Jones was

626
00:32:18,000 --> 00:32:20,560
Speaker 3: like an elite wide receiver one and then nothing. But

627
00:32:20,720 --> 00:32:22,640
Speaker 3: that's kind of the point you're making. That's when I

628
00:32:23,200 --> 00:32:25,480
Speaker 3: was kind of trying my best to define what a

629
00:32:25,520 --> 00:32:28,680
Speaker 3: bust is. Part of that is expecting too much of

630
00:32:28,760 --> 00:32:31,280
Speaker 3: a bounce back. I think people are overlooking what you said.

631
00:32:31,320 --> 00:32:34,200
Speaker 3: He's thirty one years old, he's in the decline of

632
00:32:34,280 --> 00:32:36,240
Speaker 3: his career, so we should take that seriously when he

633
00:32:36,360 --> 00:32:38,920
Speaker 3: has that big of a dropoff. And then people might

634
00:32:38,960 --> 00:32:41,440
Speaker 3: point out, well, you know Tua missed, was it like

635
00:32:41,600 --> 00:32:43,800
Speaker 3: six games? Yeah, that's kind of the point too. If

636
00:32:43,840 --> 00:32:47,440
Speaker 3: two goes down, Tyreek Hill is like wide receiver forty

637
00:32:47,520 --> 00:32:50,360
Speaker 3: in our weekly ranks. That's one of the biggest dropoffs

638
00:32:50,840 --> 00:32:53,920
Speaker 3: you have at the position. So yeah, there's enough red

639
00:32:53,960 --> 00:32:57,840
Speaker 3: flags there to kind of avoid in that solid elite

640
00:32:57,880 --> 00:33:01,200
Speaker 3: wide receiver two range because we've kind of already seen

641
00:33:01,320 --> 00:33:03,240
Speaker 3: the decline phase start to happen with him.

642
00:33:03,520 --> 00:33:05,239
Speaker 1: And that might not even be the most concerning thing.

643
00:33:05,520 --> 00:33:07,840
Speaker 1: The most concerning thing was that the other the other

644
00:33:07,920 --> 00:33:12,840
Speaker 1: day they asked McDaniel, why Tyreek isn't playing or you know,

645
00:33:13,040 --> 00:33:16,520
Speaker 1: in the preseason, why isn't practicing even And he's like, well,

646
00:33:16,720 --> 00:33:18,960
Speaker 1: he was taking all these reps and he would and

647
00:33:19,080 --> 00:33:21,480
Speaker 1: check himself out of the game, and a train has

648
00:33:21,560 --> 00:33:24,720
Speaker 1: determined that if he had played, he would have probably

649
00:33:24,720 --> 00:33:27,360
Speaker 1: suffered a long term injury. So that's like he shouldn't

650
00:33:27,400 --> 00:33:29,920
Speaker 1: be he shouldn't been like a snap away from a

651
00:33:30,000 --> 00:33:32,520
Speaker 1: long term injury. And we're, you know, a couple of

652
00:33:32,520 --> 00:33:35,400
Speaker 1: weeks out from the season, Like, nothing about this sounds good.

653
00:33:35,440 --> 00:33:38,520
Speaker 2: And what are the odds that he has in Antonio

654
00:33:38,600 --> 00:33:40,280
Speaker 2: Brown retire mid game like.

655
00:33:41,960 --> 00:33:47,680
Speaker 1: The highest of any player in the league. Brown to me,

656
00:33:47,720 --> 00:33:49,680
Speaker 1: like I said it before, I think he's that he

657
00:33:49,800 --> 00:33:53,360
Speaker 1: reminds me of that type of player where and yeah,

658
00:33:53,440 --> 00:33:56,400
Speaker 1: we haven't even talked about he said. He said, oh,

659
00:33:56,440 --> 00:33:57,840
Speaker 1: I don't want to be playing for Miami no more

660
00:33:57,960 --> 00:34:00,640
Speaker 1: last year when they you know, got eliminated for the playoffs.

661
00:34:00,880 --> 00:34:03,920
Speaker 1: So he's he's expressed his desire not to play for

662
00:34:04,000 --> 00:34:06,800
Speaker 1: the team. He's called out people, he's called out other

663
00:34:06,880 --> 00:34:11,840
Speaker 1: stars on the team. He's he's declined precipitous. We literally

664
00:34:12,080 --> 00:34:15,319
Speaker 1: his receiving yards cut in half in from age twenty

665
00:34:15,400 --> 00:34:19,440
Speaker 1: nine to age thirty. And now he's apparently a practice

666
00:34:19,480 --> 00:34:21,120
Speaker 1: rep away from a long term.

667
00:34:21,000 --> 00:34:26,280
Speaker 3: Injury like he and he and Darren Waller could potentially

668
00:34:26,280 --> 00:34:29,960
Speaker 3: be the first two player uh walk off and retire

669
00:34:29,960 --> 00:34:31,520
Speaker 3: at the same home man epic.

670
00:34:31,719 --> 00:34:34,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, that assumes down Waller is gonna walk on. Well,

671
00:34:35,320 --> 00:34:36,280
Speaker 1: I don't think he's practicing.

672
00:34:36,440 --> 00:34:36,960
Speaker 2: He did come up.

673
00:34:37,360 --> 00:34:41,600
Speaker 3: I don't think he finally returned to practice yesterday. I

674
00:34:41,640 --> 00:34:43,160
Speaker 3: think it was just like drills on the side. But

675
00:34:43,320 --> 00:34:45,440
Speaker 3: he has practice. It's finally happened.

676
00:34:45,560 --> 00:34:47,000
Speaker 1: It's not a real practice drill.

677
00:34:47,600 --> 00:34:49,960
Speaker 2: We're talking about two weeks before the season.

678
00:34:50,400 --> 00:34:55,759
Speaker 1: But I don't know what's going on there. Miami should trade, uh.

679
00:34:55,719 --> 00:34:57,200
Speaker 2: They should trade for john news Smith.

680
00:34:57,880 --> 00:35:00,840
Speaker 1: You're right, right, right, I mean I get it. I

681
00:35:00,880 --> 00:35:04,640
Speaker 1: mean they're not going anywhere fast, so maybe it's probably

682
00:35:04,640 --> 00:35:06,120
Speaker 1: it was probably the right move to just move on

683
00:35:06,200 --> 00:35:08,440
Speaker 1: from Johnson. I mean, then you just signing Waller. I

684
00:35:08,560 --> 00:35:12,319
Speaker 1: don't I don't really know. I don't know what's going

685
00:35:12,320 --> 00:35:14,080
Speaker 1: on there. It doesn't seem good to me. I mean,

686
00:35:14,840 --> 00:35:16,680
Speaker 1: it seems like a very good fantasy team for like

687
00:35:16,760 --> 00:35:18,680
Speaker 1: twenty twenty nineteen or something like that.

688
00:35:18,800 --> 00:35:21,759
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think you're right off twenty nineteen. Yeah, you're right.

689
00:35:21,800 --> 00:35:25,080
Speaker 3: The new defenses have adjusted and Tua has to get

690
00:35:25,160 --> 00:35:27,560
Speaker 3: rid of it quickly with the offensive line with this

691
00:35:27,760 --> 00:35:32,240
Speaker 3: percussion injury. So just all that leads to Tyreek definitely

692
00:35:32,360 --> 00:35:35,560
Speaker 3: being like a tough click in the elite wide receiver

693
00:35:35,680 --> 00:35:36,160
Speaker 3: two range.

694
00:35:37,080 --> 00:35:40,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I mean it, like you said, this whole

695
00:35:40,640 --> 00:35:43,239
Speaker 1: tier starts to get shaky, because even even I got

696
00:35:43,320 --> 00:35:45,600
Speaker 1: like Davante Adams, you know, he dropped off in terms

697
00:35:45,640 --> 00:35:48,279
Speaker 1: of his success against zone coverage last year. That's usually

698
00:35:48,320 --> 00:35:51,040
Speaker 1: the first tell that older guys starting to slow down.

699
00:35:51,080 --> 00:35:53,640
Speaker 1: And the Rams ignored that with Alan Robinson and it

700
00:35:53,680 --> 00:35:56,160
Speaker 1: turned out very poorly. So I'm even a little worried

701
00:35:56,160 --> 00:36:01,080
Speaker 1: about Davonte. Cooper Cup though still tends to go in

702
00:36:01,120 --> 00:36:06,120
Speaker 1: the top forty ish uh, I think that's that's not

703
00:36:06,200 --> 00:36:09,240
Speaker 1: going to payoff at all. I just I think Cooper

704
00:36:09,280 --> 00:36:11,640
Speaker 1: Cup was shot last year. I mean, he his his

705
00:36:11,719 --> 00:36:14,720
Speaker 1: success against man agains, zone, against everything, just he just stopped.

706
00:36:14,760 --> 00:36:16,759
Speaker 1: He wasn't able to be coverage down the stretch last year.

707
00:36:16,760 --> 00:36:19,759
Speaker 1: That's why you saw Stafford A. McVeagh. I mean, they

708
00:36:19,880 --> 00:36:22,279
Speaker 1: just went away from him like crazy, and you don't

709
00:36:22,320 --> 00:36:24,920
Speaker 1: expect that from a guy who was that big a

710
00:36:25,000 --> 00:36:28,320
Speaker 1: part of the offense even early on in the same season,

711
00:36:28,680 --> 00:36:31,360
Speaker 1: and they just like they couldn't. They just it was

712
00:36:31,440 --> 00:36:33,319
Speaker 1: like he was just didn't exist for a time there

713
00:36:34,000 --> 00:36:35,600
Speaker 1: and that and they were making a playoff run, so

714
00:36:35,680 --> 00:36:37,640
Speaker 1: that that to me. Now he's going to another team,

715
00:36:37,880 --> 00:36:41,920
Speaker 1: probably West pass heavy, worst quarterback, he still got a

716
00:36:42,600 --> 00:36:47,240
Speaker 1: likely target hog in JSN. Horton, Your guy was merging

717
00:36:47,840 --> 00:36:50,640
Speaker 1: in the preseason. You know they want this. They they're

718
00:36:50,719 --> 00:36:52,960
Speaker 1: overhauling all these positions that you know, like got overhauling

719
00:36:53,000 --> 00:36:55,360
Speaker 1: tight end, get more speed there with the Royo. I

720
00:36:55,600 --> 00:36:57,160
Speaker 1: it's just the writings on the wall for Cup, I

721
00:36:57,160 --> 00:36:58,840
Speaker 1: don't want any any parts. And what's he gonna be?

722
00:36:58,880 --> 00:37:01,520
Speaker 1: Like a low a low yard per catch, no touchdown

723
00:37:01,560 --> 00:37:04,200
Speaker 1: guy anyway, even if he's not like completely done.

724
00:37:04,640 --> 00:37:08,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, kind of the version we saw last year with

725
00:37:08,600 --> 00:37:12,120
Speaker 3: JSN being the Puka target getting all those layup throws

726
00:37:12,160 --> 00:37:15,239
Speaker 3: that Cup used to get and then yeah, good luck

727
00:37:15,280 --> 00:37:19,439
Speaker 3: holding off Tory Horton that Yeah, that might happen sooner

728
00:37:19,480 --> 00:37:19,839
Speaker 3: than later.

729
00:37:20,160 --> 00:37:20,560
Speaker 2: We'll see.

730
00:37:20,920 --> 00:37:22,759
Speaker 1: And like with the slot, with these guys, the guys

731
00:37:22,800 --> 00:37:25,560
Speaker 1: that are better suited to the slot, once they starts

732
00:37:25,600 --> 00:37:29,320
Speaker 1: to fall off, you gotta get off because slot guys,

733
00:37:29,840 --> 00:37:32,560
Speaker 1: you're you're banking off volume like you don't want Yeah, Uh,

734
00:37:32,719 --> 00:37:35,200
Speaker 1: Cooper Cupp just averaging like you know, nine ten yards

735
00:37:35,239 --> 00:37:38,480
Speaker 1: to catch and uh, you know, probably not gonna get

736
00:37:38,480 --> 00:37:40,719
Speaker 1: a ton of touchdowns. In this in this offense, at

737
00:37:40,800 --> 00:37:43,040
Speaker 1: least not as many as you expect on the Rams offense.

738
00:37:43,120 --> 00:37:47,560
Speaker 1: So uh yeah, no, no bueno for me and Godwin.

739
00:37:47,840 --> 00:37:51,800
Speaker 1: Godwin's another guy. I just I know he's kind of

740
00:37:51,880 --> 00:37:53,320
Speaker 1: you can you can look at it like, Okay, he

741
00:37:53,400 --> 00:37:55,520
Speaker 1: was the top top two receiver last year when he

742
00:37:55,560 --> 00:38:00,320
Speaker 1: was healthy. Small sample, but oh, coordinator's gone another serious injury.

743
00:38:00,400 --> 00:38:03,520
Speaker 1: He had a second surgery. It's an ankle, which is

744
00:38:03,760 --> 00:38:06,160
Speaker 1: very important for a receiver. And he did remember he

745
00:38:06,200 --> 00:38:08,279
Speaker 1: tore up his knee a couple of years before that too.

746
00:38:08,480 --> 00:38:12,320
Speaker 1: So at some at some point, you know, you gotta

747
00:38:12,600 --> 00:38:14,480
Speaker 1: you gotta just say, okay, it is what it is like,

748
00:38:14,560 --> 00:38:17,360
Speaker 1: it's this is still a human being. This these injuries

749
00:38:17,400 --> 00:38:19,359
Speaker 1: are just hard. They're piling up. It's gonna be hard

750
00:38:19,400 --> 00:38:21,680
Speaker 1: to come back from. They drafted Abuka in the first round,

751
00:38:22,600 --> 00:38:24,680
Speaker 1: right he's on the wall. I just I'd rather go

752
00:38:24,840 --> 00:38:29,040
Speaker 1: with a quarterback in that range because I waited, or

753
00:38:29,080 --> 00:38:30,960
Speaker 1: a tight end like I. I just don't really want

754
00:38:31,000 --> 00:38:33,319
Speaker 1: to rely on on Godwin or even take him as

755
00:38:33,320 --> 00:38:35,640
Speaker 1: an upside shot because I just think I think he's

756
00:38:35,640 --> 00:38:37,719
Speaker 1: gonna miss time. I don't want to stash him. I

757
00:38:37,760 --> 00:38:40,360
Speaker 1: don't want him in besketball because he's gonna miss games,

758
00:38:40,520 --> 00:38:42,239
Speaker 1: Like I just I don't I don't want. I don't

759
00:38:42,239 --> 00:38:44,399
Speaker 1: want anything to do with these injured guys where it's

760
00:38:44,440 --> 00:38:47,279
Speaker 1: like they're gonna definitely miss time to start the year,

761
00:38:47,840 --> 00:38:50,360
Speaker 1: just to just to just all, I'm always out on

762
00:38:50,440 --> 00:38:53,160
Speaker 1: those guys. So no godwin for me. And he thoughts

763
00:38:53,200 --> 00:38:55,719
Speaker 1: on you quick because he's another I didn't even bother

764
00:38:56,000 --> 00:38:58,400
Speaker 1: kind of mentioning him because he's his ADP has second

765
00:38:58,440 --> 00:39:00,840
Speaker 1: the sixties. But do you think there's any point drafting

766
00:39:01,040 --> 00:39:01,439
Speaker 1: like him?

767
00:39:01,960 --> 00:39:02,120
Speaker 2: Yeah?

768
00:39:02,160 --> 00:39:05,480
Speaker 3: I mean if he's probably going to open the season

769
00:39:05,600 --> 00:39:08,120
Speaker 3: up on the IR the pup right, In some leagues

770
00:39:08,440 --> 00:39:10,719
Speaker 3: you're allowed to kind of stash guys there. So if

771
00:39:10,760 --> 00:39:15,360
Speaker 3: you're in a deeper league and you're gonna afford it,

772
00:39:15,600 --> 00:39:18,400
Speaker 3: he's definitely worth a stash. But let's say he does return,

773
00:39:19,440 --> 00:39:23,359
Speaker 3: where do you see him fitting in like a low

774
00:39:23,480 --> 00:39:25,080
Speaker 3: end wide receiver two or is he just more of

775
00:39:25,120 --> 00:39:27,120
Speaker 3: a wide receiver three flex. That's where I have trouble

776
00:39:27,600 --> 00:39:31,200
Speaker 3: when he does return, like his upside is still limited. Uh,

777
00:39:32,120 --> 00:39:35,040
Speaker 3: you know, Juan Jennings, he's still there, and.

778
00:39:36,520 --> 00:39:38,239
Speaker 1: I would say his floor is low because he could

779
00:39:38,320 --> 00:39:42,279
Speaker 1: just be, yeah, like a lesser version of himself and

780
00:39:42,480 --> 00:39:45,000
Speaker 1: the like the fifth target on the offense now that

781
00:39:45,200 --> 00:39:46,640
Speaker 1: other guys are That's yeah.

782
00:39:46,719 --> 00:39:49,640
Speaker 3: That's my point is like, even when he does return,

783
00:39:50,680 --> 00:39:53,400
Speaker 3: we're not thinking he's like fully healthy and goes back

784
00:39:53,440 --> 00:39:56,200
Speaker 3: to his full time role, which he needs because you know,

785
00:39:56,280 --> 00:39:58,960
Speaker 3: he's more of a big play guy, touchdown guy. So

786
00:39:59,520 --> 00:40:01,160
Speaker 3: even when he he does return, I don't know, if

787
00:40:01,200 --> 00:40:03,239
Speaker 3: you're just like putting him in your lineup, you might

788
00:40:03,320 --> 00:40:06,279
Speaker 3: have a you know, Romo Dunes there or somebody that

789
00:40:06,440 --> 00:40:10,360
Speaker 3: has become a solid wide receiver too. So just taking

790
00:40:10,440 --> 00:40:14,920
Speaker 3: the roster slot away from someone is tough, and in

791
00:40:15,000 --> 00:40:17,719
Speaker 3: these situations, I can go either way. Sometimes I do,

792
00:40:17,920 --> 00:40:20,279
Speaker 3: like I think Jordan Aison, I think I'm gonna talk

793
00:40:20,320 --> 00:40:23,200
Speaker 3: about him on the league winner spot. I think someone

794
00:40:23,320 --> 00:40:25,520
Speaker 3: like him makes a ton of sense because first of all,

795
00:40:25,600 --> 00:40:28,759
Speaker 3: it's only three games and he's suspended. He's healthy, so

796
00:40:28,880 --> 00:40:30,960
Speaker 3: when he comes back, he's gonna go back in his

797
00:40:31,040 --> 00:40:34,399
Speaker 3: full time role. Missing six games and then coming back

798
00:40:34,840 --> 00:40:38,520
Speaker 3: fifty percent. I'm a little bit more careful with and

799
00:40:39,320 --> 00:40:41,320
Speaker 3: I think he could peak as like a wide receiver

800
00:40:41,480 --> 00:40:43,000
Speaker 3: three this year.

801
00:40:43,200 --> 00:40:46,960
Speaker 2: So I'm a little less on, you know, like stashing him.

802
00:40:46,960 --> 00:40:50,320
Speaker 3: I'm more about just taking Ricky piersall and hoping he

803
00:40:50,360 --> 00:40:53,160
Speaker 3: could break out enough that even when Ayuk returns it

804
00:40:53,360 --> 00:40:54,359
Speaker 3: won't matter too much.

805
00:40:55,080 --> 00:40:57,480
Speaker 2: But yeah, I'm kind of off. I know you've been

806
00:40:57,520 --> 00:40:59,000
Speaker 2: off him the whole summer, right.

807
00:40:59,760 --> 00:41:01,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I just you can see the writing down

808
00:41:02,000 --> 00:41:04,200
Speaker 1: the wall. I mean, and I think people just kind

809
00:41:04,239 --> 00:41:06,839
Speaker 1: of over It's it's tough for the market to kind

810
00:41:06,840 --> 00:41:10,520
Speaker 1: of price these guys with with the miss games and then,

811
00:41:10,600 --> 00:41:12,800
Speaker 1: you know, because it really matters your per game production

812
00:41:12,880 --> 00:41:18,439
Speaker 1: to an extent. But when you can have seventeen weeks

813
00:41:18,480 --> 00:41:22,880
Speaker 1: of upside, why settle for some undetermined number that's like

814
00:41:23,239 --> 00:41:24,799
Speaker 1: half that or you know, and you don't know if

815
00:41:24,840 --> 00:41:26,440
Speaker 1: he's gonna get hurt again. He could come back and

816
00:41:26,719 --> 00:41:29,280
Speaker 1: still get hurt, He could not be his the best

817
00:41:29,600 --> 00:41:34,680
Speaker 1: version of himself. There's just too much uncertainty. It's just

818
00:41:35,680 --> 00:41:38,680
Speaker 1: that's like running back stash territory, if you know, if

819
00:41:38,719 --> 00:41:40,960
Speaker 1: you're thinking about him in that range. So, uh yeah,

820
00:41:41,120 --> 00:41:43,560
Speaker 1: I don't see a point. One other guy I do

821
00:41:43,640 --> 00:41:45,800
Speaker 1: want to mention, though, Kean Coleman. I think he's a

822
00:41:45,840 --> 00:41:47,560
Speaker 1: guy where another one of those guys we kind of

823
00:41:47,880 --> 00:41:51,319
Speaker 1: people are expecting the second year elite, but I don't.

824
00:41:51,560 --> 00:41:53,759
Speaker 1: I don't really like the kind of te leaves in

825
00:41:53,800 --> 00:41:57,000
Speaker 1: Buffalo with him either. I mean, he didn't really improve

826
00:41:57,040 --> 00:41:58,920
Speaker 1: as the year went on. Last year kind of saw

827
00:41:58,960 --> 00:42:02,040
Speaker 1: his role decrease a little bit from the start of

828
00:42:02,040 --> 00:42:04,000
Speaker 1: the year when he was just playing you know, every

829
00:42:04,280 --> 00:42:06,440
Speaker 1: you know, most of the snaps, and then by the

830
00:42:06,480 --> 00:42:08,240
Speaker 1: time the postseason rolled around, he was like a fifty

831
00:42:08,239 --> 00:42:11,719
Speaker 1: to fifty guy and they had acquired Cooper and now

832
00:42:11,840 --> 00:42:15,040
Speaker 1: this year people got excited again. But then you know,

833
00:42:15,120 --> 00:42:20,839
Speaker 1: they paid Josh Palmer, Elijah, Yeah, Moore was there, Samuel's

834
00:42:20,880 --> 00:42:22,560
Speaker 1: working like they started using all those guys in like

835
00:42:22,600 --> 00:42:24,839
Speaker 1: a time share, right, you know, used all their guys

836
00:42:24,880 --> 00:42:27,279
Speaker 1: in the times for last year, Shakira was the clear

837
00:42:27,760 --> 00:42:32,279
Speaker 1: target Hoggin guy. And now you're talking about Visit a

838
00:42:32,400 --> 00:42:35,439
Speaker 1: visit with Gabe Davis, which probably impacts Coleman the most

839
00:42:35,719 --> 00:42:37,520
Speaker 1: because I mean, they didn't pay Josh Palmer all that

840
00:42:37,600 --> 00:42:40,120
Speaker 1: money to sit I know Coleman did sit out the

841
00:42:40,120 --> 00:42:43,160
Speaker 1: breeze in the game, but I I just I don't

842
00:42:43,200 --> 00:42:45,399
Speaker 1: think he's gonna pay off he goes inside the top

843
00:42:45,480 --> 00:42:47,799
Speaker 1: fifties again. I think that's a little more important now

844
00:42:47,840 --> 00:42:49,160
Speaker 1: that receivers go earlier.

845
00:42:49,200 --> 00:42:49,520
Speaker 2: I don't.

846
00:42:50,360 --> 00:42:52,680
Speaker 1: I'm it's setting up like a Curtis Samuel to me,

847
00:42:52,840 --> 00:42:55,160
Speaker 1: like last year, where it's peop were like, all right,

848
00:42:55,520 --> 00:42:58,400
Speaker 1: this Bills receiver is gonna ball out, and it's just

849
00:42:58,520 --> 00:43:04,040
Speaker 1: like he can finish like ninety eighth receire ninety eight years, So.

850
00:43:05,120 --> 00:43:07,600
Speaker 3: He's definitely more of a best ball option. I think

851
00:43:07,640 --> 00:43:10,799
Speaker 3: he kind of found his way into the Gabe Davis role.

852
00:43:10,840 --> 00:43:12,960
Speaker 3: But if they do bring back the Gabe Davis, that

853
00:43:13,000 --> 00:43:17,520
Speaker 3: would definitely impact them. But this offense, like as high

854
00:43:17,560 --> 00:43:20,680
Speaker 3: scoring and explosive as it is, really it's as Josh Allen,

855
00:43:20,760 --> 00:43:23,920
Speaker 3: James Cook for me, Ray Davis is a backup, but

856
00:43:24,239 --> 00:43:26,640
Speaker 3: every week, you know, they spread it around enough. I

857
00:43:26,680 --> 00:43:29,880
Speaker 3: guess cool Shakira has the highest floor. It's just really

858
00:43:30,000 --> 00:43:32,800
Speaker 3: tough to rely on any one of these guys outside

859
00:43:32,800 --> 00:43:34,480
Speaker 3: of you know, Josh Allen, James Cook.

860
00:43:34,760 --> 00:43:37,160
Speaker 1: And Shakira was targeted pro route almost like twice as

861
00:43:37,239 --> 00:43:39,960
Speaker 1: much as Coleman, and they essentially go at the same

862
00:43:39,960 --> 00:43:42,360
Speaker 1: point in the draft now because you know, Shakira is

863
00:43:42,640 --> 00:43:45,600
Speaker 1: you know, questionable for week one, But I mean I'd

864
00:43:45,680 --> 00:43:47,120
Speaker 1: rather just buy the dip on him in that in

865
00:43:47,200 --> 00:43:49,560
Speaker 1: that situation. But Buffalo, yeah, they they want to spread

866
00:43:49,560 --> 00:43:53,279
Speaker 1: it around. That's that's clear tight end and then we

867
00:43:53,400 --> 00:43:55,399
Speaker 1: will get out of here. On our Fantasy Flex Bust

868
00:43:55,400 --> 00:44:00,520
Speaker 1: episode for twenty twenty five, last year on you had

869
00:44:00,640 --> 00:44:03,520
Speaker 1: gotar and Comet, so good cause there I had Hockinson

870
00:44:03,640 --> 00:44:08,120
Speaker 1: and ben Toinett, So yeah, that's pretty good. Good cause

871
00:44:08,200 --> 00:44:10,239
Speaker 1: all around the tight end we got this year.

872
00:44:10,480 --> 00:44:13,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm gonna go with Evan Ingram here where on

873
00:44:14,040 --> 00:44:16,799
Speaker 3: the surface, this is a great landing spot for him

874
00:44:16,960 --> 00:44:19,960
Speaker 3: since you know, he left Jacksonville because you know, the

875
00:44:20,080 --> 00:44:23,880
Speaker 3: Broncos tight end depth chart last year was one of

876
00:44:23,920 --> 00:44:27,120
Speaker 3: the weakest, if not the weakest, in the league. So

877
00:44:27,280 --> 00:44:30,719
Speaker 3: he's gonna be the clear pass catching option and could

878
00:44:30,760 --> 00:44:33,760
Speaker 3: be the number two target in this offense. It certainly

879
00:44:33,800 --> 00:44:35,920
Speaker 3: shaping up that way, but I think he just has

880
00:44:35,960 --> 00:44:38,880
Speaker 3: a wide range of outcomes than people realize, and a

881
00:44:38,960 --> 00:44:42,120
Speaker 3: Sean Payton offense, he could still be part of a

882
00:44:42,239 --> 00:44:44,839
Speaker 3: rotation where yeah, he's the uh, you know, the lead

883
00:44:44,960 --> 00:44:47,120
Speaker 3: pass catching tight end, but it could limit him to

884
00:44:47,600 --> 00:44:50,040
Speaker 3: you know, a sixty percent routes on rate. We don't

885
00:44:50,040 --> 00:44:52,440
Speaker 3: really know that until the season starts, and kind of

886
00:44:52,480 --> 00:44:55,480
Speaker 3: the reason people will be drafting him at tight end eight,

887
00:44:55,520 --> 00:44:58,200
Speaker 3: which I think is too high, is because he offers

888
00:44:58,200 --> 00:45:00,239
Speaker 3: a high floor. But I don't think that's a given

889
00:45:00,280 --> 00:45:03,200
Speaker 3: in this offense. And again, if i miss out on

890
00:45:03,280 --> 00:45:06,400
Speaker 3: a top three tight end, I'm willing to punt the position.

891
00:45:06,760 --> 00:45:10,160
Speaker 2: I'm just going for raw upside. So that's that's not

892
00:45:10,440 --> 00:45:12,120
Speaker 2: Evan Ingram for me at tight end eight.

893
00:45:12,200 --> 00:45:14,560
Speaker 3: And you can get that false sense of security where

894
00:45:15,200 --> 00:45:18,319
Speaker 3: you draft him tight end eight and yeah, he's giving

895
00:45:18,360 --> 00:45:21,120
Speaker 3: you three to four catches every week for forty yards

896
00:45:21,200 --> 00:45:24,880
Speaker 3: in a touchdown. And you know while that touchdown, no

897
00:45:25,280 --> 00:45:28,600
Speaker 3: no touchdown, no touchdown, three to four catches a week,

898
00:45:28,760 --> 00:45:32,960
Speaker 3: forty yards, no touchdown, that's going to like Nate Atkins

899
00:45:33,080 --> 00:45:37,560
Speaker 3: or somebody, right, you know, that might feel fine, but

900
00:45:38,000 --> 00:45:40,520
Speaker 3: I just want more. If I'm punting at tight end,

901
00:45:41,160 --> 00:45:44,000
Speaker 3: I'm just shooting for upset at that point, I'm going

902
00:45:44,040 --> 00:45:46,800
Speaker 3: for a ceiling. Taysom Hill great example of that. We

903
00:45:46,920 --> 00:45:48,759
Speaker 3: just play Tayso in hell every week. We know he

904
00:45:48,760 --> 00:45:50,960
Speaker 3: could give us a goose egg, but the you know,

905
00:45:51,040 --> 00:45:54,040
Speaker 3: the potential for twenty points is there. That's kind of

906
00:45:54,040 --> 00:45:56,320
Speaker 3: who I'm trying to target at this point in the draft.

907
00:45:56,680 --> 00:45:59,160
Speaker 3: So I think people spending you know, early enough draft

908
00:45:59,480 --> 00:46:03,200
Speaker 3: capital take them tight end eight might be disappointed with

909
00:46:03,440 --> 00:46:07,200
Speaker 3: just his steady diet of three to four catches in

910
00:46:07,280 --> 00:46:10,200
Speaker 3: forty yards. So again, I think if you're punting at

911
00:46:10,280 --> 00:46:12,839
Speaker 3: tight end, you got to really punt and take take

912
00:46:12,880 --> 00:46:15,640
Speaker 3: one of the rookies later on shoot for upside, whereas

913
00:46:15,800 --> 00:46:18,120
Speaker 3: Ingram just provides more of a safer floor.

914
00:46:18,160 --> 00:46:20,000
Speaker 2: Which might not even be there with Sean Payton.

915
00:46:21,000 --> 00:46:23,319
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think he's a kind of a He's gonna

916
00:46:23,320 --> 00:46:25,600
Speaker 1: be a lot better of an acquisition for Denver in

917
00:46:25,640 --> 00:46:30,439
Speaker 1: real life than in fantasy because their tight ends always play,

918
00:46:31,200 --> 00:46:34,040
Speaker 1: you know, situational roles. Peyton already hinted at it, like, yeah,

919
00:46:34,680 --> 00:46:37,120
Speaker 1: red zone, third down, red zone. First of all, this

920
00:46:37,200 --> 00:46:40,000
Speaker 1: guy doesn't He hasn't caught more than what six seven

921
00:46:40,040 --> 00:46:41,839
Speaker 1: touchdowns was his career high.

922
00:46:42,120 --> 00:46:44,319
Speaker 2: I think it was always low, always low.

923
00:46:44,400 --> 00:46:46,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, the last seven years. I don't believe he's caught

924
00:46:47,040 --> 00:46:49,399
Speaker 1: more than four, Yeah, the last seven. See, he hasn't

925
00:46:49,400 --> 00:46:51,600
Speaker 1: caught more than force his rookie year, which was six.

926
00:46:51,840 --> 00:46:54,920
Speaker 1: That's his career high won last year in nine games,

927
00:46:55,000 --> 00:46:57,320
Speaker 1: four in each of the last two seasons before that,

928
00:46:57,560 --> 00:47:02,480
Speaker 1: so he's not really a red zone guy. There's competition

929
00:47:02,560 --> 00:47:06,040
Speaker 1: for targets. He's turning thirty one. He was always like

930
00:47:06,120 --> 00:47:09,240
Speaker 1: a volume guy when he really would pay off in fantasy,

931
00:47:09,320 --> 00:47:11,399
Speaker 1: and like you said, we don't even know if that's

932
00:47:11,560 --> 00:47:14,759
Speaker 1: that's a given. So yeah, I completely agree on him,

933
00:47:15,239 --> 00:47:18,319
Speaker 1: and I think Kelsey even is going too high now too.

934
00:47:18,400 --> 00:47:20,520
Speaker 1: I think there's just that whole middle tier is just

935
00:47:20,800 --> 00:47:24,360
Speaker 1: a false sense of security because Kelsey went from sixty

936
00:47:24,400 --> 00:47:26,399
Speaker 1: six yards and twenty twenty three to fifty one yards

937
00:47:26,440 --> 00:47:28,359
Speaker 1: per game last year. He went from ten point six

938
00:47:28,480 --> 00:47:31,160
Speaker 1: yards per catch, which not even not great but about

939
00:47:31,200 --> 00:47:34,040
Speaker 1: average for a tight end to eight eight and a

940
00:47:34,080 --> 00:47:37,080
Speaker 1: half last year. I mean, another guy where the writing

941
00:47:37,400 --> 00:47:41,040
Speaker 1: is on the wall, he's thirty what six? Now thirty

942
00:47:41,080 --> 00:47:45,360
Speaker 1: six is Kelsey? So it I mean, this is the

943
00:47:45,480 --> 00:47:48,560
Speaker 1: best group of receivers I think they've had post Tyreek,

944
00:47:49,480 --> 00:47:51,920
Speaker 1: at least if you know maybe. I mean, Brown already

945
00:47:51,960 --> 00:47:56,120
Speaker 1: looks like he's ify in terms of availability, but he

946
00:47:56,200 --> 00:47:58,800
Speaker 1: got Royals waiting in the wings as well, So just

947
00:47:59,440 --> 00:48:01,960
Speaker 1: a situation where I think they keep him bubble wrapped

948
00:48:02,560 --> 00:48:05,200
Speaker 1: if they can into the postseason. You got Noah Gray.

949
00:48:05,320 --> 00:48:07,239
Speaker 1: So he got a good tight end to kind of play,

950
00:48:07,840 --> 00:48:10,120
Speaker 1: you know, fill the gaps in in the regular season.

951
00:48:10,360 --> 00:48:12,319
Speaker 1: So I think there's this range, there's this only there's

952
00:48:12,320 --> 00:48:16,239
Speaker 1: this outcome where he gets like eighteen touchdowns because they're

953
00:48:16,360 --> 00:48:18,120
Speaker 1: just like purposely trying to get him touch us every

954
00:48:18,160 --> 00:48:19,520
Speaker 1: time they get in the red zone. But that's just

955
00:48:19,840 --> 00:48:22,480
Speaker 1: that's like a play you do in the prop market,

956
00:48:22,560 --> 00:48:24,160
Speaker 1: you know, we League leader or something like that. But

957
00:48:24,239 --> 00:48:25,880
Speaker 1: in a fantasy draft, do I want this guy in

958
00:48:26,200 --> 00:48:28,320
Speaker 1: the fifth, sixth, ceps, you know, even the seventh round? No,

959
00:48:28,480 --> 00:48:31,040
Speaker 1: absolutely not. I think I'm totally with you. I think

960
00:48:31,640 --> 00:48:35,400
Speaker 1: this whole tier after the top three. But Kelsey and

961
00:48:35,640 --> 00:48:39,239
Speaker 1: Ingram really stand out as the guys that could just

962
00:48:39,680 --> 00:48:42,200
Speaker 1: could like bust in a big way. I mean Kelsey

963
00:48:42,960 --> 00:48:45,600
Speaker 1: was he tight and ten last year anyway, and he

964
00:48:46,080 --> 00:48:48,560
Speaker 1: played sixteen games, so yeah, not ideal.

965
00:48:49,120 --> 00:48:52,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, he got respect for the time exactly.

966
00:48:52,080 --> 00:48:54,480
Speaker 3: And you know he's the kind of guy where if

967
00:48:54,560 --> 00:48:58,319
Speaker 3: you draft him, like throughout the season, you're you're never

968
00:48:58,520 --> 00:49:01,600
Speaker 3: like I can drop Travis Kelcey right now. You're just

969
00:49:01,680 --> 00:49:04,320
Speaker 3: gonna hang on to him and he might be a

970
00:49:04,360 --> 00:49:07,040
Speaker 3: top five tight end. We don't know, but again, there's

971
00:49:07,080 --> 00:49:09,400
Speaker 3: gonna be ten to fifteen potential guys that could be

972
00:49:09,480 --> 00:49:11,759
Speaker 3: league winners sitting on the waiver wire where week one,

973
00:49:12,480 --> 00:49:14,480
Speaker 3: Tyle Higbee who we talked about, could have like an

974
00:49:14,520 --> 00:49:16,759
Speaker 3: eighty percent route run rate and we're like, holy shit,

975
00:49:16,880 --> 00:49:18,400
Speaker 3: he's going to be a top ten tight end.

976
00:49:18,760 --> 00:49:20,680
Speaker 2: Or Tyle Pitt or Zacher.

977
00:49:20,719 --> 00:49:23,640
Speaker 3: It's like mclaurin's out this that they trade him and

978
00:49:23,960 --> 00:49:25,840
Speaker 3: one of these guys becomes a top ten tight end

979
00:49:25,840 --> 00:49:28,319
Speaker 3: and the guy that has Kelsey is like, well, I'd

980
00:49:28,400 --> 00:49:30,080
Speaker 3: like to pick him up, but I have Travis Kelcey.

981
00:49:30,160 --> 00:49:30,479
Speaker 2: I can't.

982
00:49:30,800 --> 00:49:32,680
Speaker 3: I can't move on from him. You're kind of stuck

983
00:49:32,760 --> 00:49:34,759
Speaker 3: with him. And that's kind of my point is once

984
00:49:34,800 --> 00:49:37,480
Speaker 3: you get outside the top three, you kind of have

985
00:49:37,640 --> 00:49:40,480
Speaker 3: that problem where you need the flexibility, you need to

986
00:49:40,520 --> 00:49:42,879
Speaker 3: be willing to kind of add that guy, because that's

987
00:49:43,200 --> 00:49:45,719
Speaker 3: how people ended up with Brock Bauers or John new

988
00:49:45,760 --> 00:49:48,239
Speaker 3: Smith last year. They just added them early on in

989
00:49:48,320 --> 00:49:50,759
Speaker 3: the season and rode the waves. So you just have

990
00:49:50,840 --> 00:49:53,279
Speaker 3: to be careful with investing early draft cauple on tight

991
00:49:53,400 --> 00:49:56,600
Speaker 3: ends where you know they could easily finish outside the

992
00:49:56,640 --> 00:49:58,320
Speaker 3: top ten, and you kind of missed the boat.

993
00:49:58,440 --> 00:49:59,520
Speaker 2: On one of these league winners.

994
00:50:00,880 --> 00:50:04,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely, I mean, yeah, the drop off is just precipitously.

995
00:50:04,000 --> 00:50:04,279
Speaker 2: You're right.

996
00:50:04,280 --> 00:50:06,840
Speaker 1: If you're drafting one one of anything that applies to

997
00:50:06,960 --> 00:50:09,160
Speaker 1: quarterback too, you know you a lot more has to

998
00:50:09,239 --> 00:50:12,799
Speaker 1: go right because you know, if that guy doesn't pan out,

999
00:50:13,120 --> 00:50:15,880
Speaker 1: you might be playing a guy who you know has

1000
00:50:15,920 --> 00:50:19,080
Speaker 1: given you less than you anticipated and you're not dropping him,

1001
00:50:19,120 --> 00:50:21,600
Speaker 1: and you missed out on a position where you could

1002
00:50:21,680 --> 00:50:24,040
Speaker 1: be you know, starting a guy in the flex even

1003
00:50:24,040 --> 00:50:25,879
Speaker 1: if you didn't need him as a starter at wide

1004
00:50:25,880 --> 00:50:27,919
Speaker 1: receiver running back. So yeah, there's a lot of risk

1005
00:50:28,040 --> 00:50:31,520
Speaker 1: in taking tight ends and quarterbacks in the middle rounds

1006
00:50:31,560 --> 00:50:35,040
Speaker 1: this year, just because the way the ADP is kind

1007
00:50:35,040 --> 00:50:38,920
Speaker 1: of shaped up with people so aggressively targeting wide receivers

1008
00:50:38,960 --> 00:50:41,360
Speaker 1: and then kind of shifting pivoting to running backs. So

1009
00:50:41,480 --> 00:50:43,799
Speaker 1: like there's all these like running backs who you can

1010
00:50:43,800 --> 00:50:45,440
Speaker 1: get weight, but you got to actually get them waight,

1011
00:50:45,520 --> 00:50:48,839
Speaker 1: Like you can't just probably want a couple of them,

1012
00:50:48,880 --> 00:50:51,719
Speaker 1: you know, the quantity to make up for the lack

1013
00:50:51,800 --> 00:50:55,719
Speaker 1: of potential lack of quality. So yeah, Kelsey Ingram, I

1014
00:50:55,760 --> 00:50:58,200
Speaker 1: think Ingram, Yeah, he really sticks out. But that is

1015
00:50:58,480 --> 00:51:01,840
Speaker 1: that's gonna wrap it. For our Fantasy Flex Bust episode

1016
00:51:01,880 --> 00:51:06,520
Speaker 1: for twenty twenty five, and with the regular season coming up,

1017
00:51:06,600 --> 00:51:09,440
Speaker 1: draft season in full effect, be sure to subscribe to

1018
00:51:09,920 --> 00:51:12,320
Speaker 1: the Fantasy Flex Podcast. We've got all of our positional

1019
00:51:12,360 --> 00:51:15,680
Speaker 1: previews already out. If you want to dive deeper, we

1020
00:51:15,800 --> 00:51:19,919
Speaker 1: go you know, running back one tier, running back two tier, Wide,

1021
00:51:19,920 --> 00:51:24,000
Speaker 1: Receiver one two three. We also do our Rookie Draft episodes,

1022
00:51:24,000 --> 00:51:26,000
Speaker 1: which are always fun as well. If you want to

1023
00:51:26,040 --> 00:51:28,120
Speaker 1: really get deeper, you're in Dynasty League or something like that,

1024
00:51:28,600 --> 00:51:31,960
Speaker 1: so be sure to check them out. We'll have week

1025
00:51:32,000 --> 00:51:35,759
Speaker 1: Winners next and we already have our Sleepers episode up,

1026
00:51:35,840 --> 00:51:38,560
Speaker 1: so be sure to check those out. Fantasywabs dot com

1027
00:51:38,640 --> 00:51:41,600
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00:51:41,680 --> 00:51:44,680
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1029
00:51:44,840 --> 00:51:48,600
Speaker 1: zero for twenty dollars off an NFL sub We got rankings,

1030
00:51:48,640 --> 00:51:51,319
Speaker 1: tiers content more so be sure to check that out.

1031
00:51:51,840 --> 00:51:56,080
Speaker 1: And our live event Saturday, August twenty third. Sean will

1032
00:51:56,080 --> 00:51:59,560
Speaker 1: be there. I'll be there. Joe's on Weed Street in Chicago.

1033
00:51:59,640 --> 00:52:03,160
Speaker 1: It's free to attend. You just got an RSVP in

1034
00:52:03,239 --> 00:52:06,279
Speaker 1: the episode description for the Fantasy Flex Live event in

1035
00:52:06,440 --> 00:52:11,800
Speaker 1: Chicago Saturday, August twenty third, presented by Y'ah who Fantasy

1036
00:52:11,920 --> 00:52:13,719
Speaker 1: Sean is on X at the end of Scarage Maker

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00:52:13,719 --> 00:52:15,920
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1039
00:52:19,840 --> 00:52:21,839
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00:52:21,880 --> 00:52:24,160
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00:52:24,200 --> 00:52:35,399
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