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Speaker 1: Hi, I'm Molly John Fast and this is Fast Politics,

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Speaker 1: where we discussed the top political headlines with some of

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Speaker 1: today's best minds, and the Treasury will double that five

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Speaker 1: back in an attempt to stabilize the bond market. We

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Speaker 1: have such a great Joe for you today. To the

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Speaker 1: contrarys Charlie Syke stops by to talk about Donald Trump's

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Speaker 1: endorsements failing again. Then we'll talk to Strength in Numbers

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Speaker 1: g Elliott Morris about the way Social Experiment polls are

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Speaker 1: shaping the political narrative. But first the news.

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Speaker 2: So, Mili, we had primaries last night. I think the

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Speaker 2: pollsters who said Jared Moscowitz we're going to lose deserve

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Speaker 2: us to give us an explanation because it was nowhere close.

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Speaker 2: And w Wasserman Schultz got the seat that she decided

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Speaker 2: to run in despite getting a lot of pushback because

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Speaker 2: she ran in a black district where she got less

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Speaker 2: than the majority of the vote. I for what, I'm

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Speaker 2: sad because Luther Campbell didn't and who came in lest

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Speaker 2: who was my candidate? Because I wanted to see someone

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Speaker 2: from Two Live career in Congress.

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Speaker 1: I know Two Live Crew is amazing, all right, let's

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Speaker 1: break down what happened last night, because there were yet

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Speaker 1: another group of primaries. There's a lot going on with

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Speaker 1: these primaries that I'd love to talk through. First of all,

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Speaker 1: Florida had redistricting, so the maps were all redrawn in order.

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Speaker 1: Ron DeSantis, who is by the way, historically you know, unpopular,

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Speaker 1: who was riding a sort of Trump wave. He for corruption, right,

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Speaker 1: there's a number of scandals happening there. He redrew these districts,

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Speaker 1: and he redrew both the Debbie Wasserman Schultz district and

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Speaker 1: the Jared Moscowitz district. And the Moscowitz district is part

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Speaker 1: of the district that he represented before, but it is

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Speaker 1: much more Republican. So one of the things that I

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Speaker 1: think Moscowitz did that is really great is that he

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Speaker 1: decided to run in this district that is now a

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Speaker 1: very maga district, right, but it's a toss up in

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Speaker 1: this environment. So that's another thing. And he is running

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Speaker 1: against the former mayor of Boco Utan, So this district

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Speaker 1: now is much more red but it's also a district

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Speaker 1: that again you have the West Virginia Joe Mansion situation,

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Speaker 1: where Moscowitz is the candidate who could run who could

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Speaker 1: win in this district because a he has already represented

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Speaker 1: a lot of this district, and he also is that

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Speaker 1: kind of candidate. He's very pro Israel, and this is

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Speaker 1: a very pro Israel district. We were before we were

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Speaker 1: recording this, fighting about this, but I truly believe when

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Speaker 1: you look at this is Jesse and I were having

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Speaker 1: a fight about this. But if you look at the

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Speaker 1: Wasserman district, Wasserman Schultz, she decided to take the safe district,

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Speaker 1: which is a D plus whatever, which is the only

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Speaker 1: majority minority district now in Florida, so it should be

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Speaker 1: represented by someone who is in a minority, and Wasserman

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Speaker 1: Schultz took it instead. And because there were a number

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Speaker 1: of there were about four other black candidates, they split

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Speaker 1: the vote and we had, you know, eighteen percent got

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Speaker 1: went to a bunch of candidates, twenty three percent went

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Speaker 1: to one candidate, thirteen percent went to the other. So

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Speaker 1: Wasserman Schultz, though was unable to clear fifty, got to

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Speaker 1: forty five percent. The Congressional Black Caucus is furious as well.

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Speaker 1: They probably should be, and this is a seat where

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Speaker 1: she really could have run in a more competitive seat.

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Speaker 1: Let that seat go to someone who was minority because

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Speaker 1: it is a majority minority seat, and perhaps done what

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Speaker 1: Jared Moscowitz may do, which is win a seat that

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Speaker 1: otherwise Democrats would lose. And in a tight, tight environment

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Speaker 1: like that, you really want every seat you can because

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Speaker 1: that's the difference between they have a speaker Hakeem or

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Speaker 1: a speaker you know, whoever becomes the Speaker of the House,

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Speaker 1: and another two years of Mike Johnson doing everything he

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Speaker 1: can to enrich Donald Trump, and.

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Speaker 2: So let's move to another race. You know, one of

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Speaker 2: the things I hear all day is, oh my god,

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Speaker 2: it's these Democratic socialists who have these views about changing

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Speaker 2: police budgets or getting people medicare. They're so awful. Last

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Speaker 2: night we saw the in a hard, hard thing to

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Speaker 2: be probably the most racist, islamophobic Congressman Randy Fine, beat

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Speaker 2: a guy whose views he does not dispute are that

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Speaker 2: of a Nazi. So all these voters voted for two

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Speaker 2: people with some of the most reprehensible views. We always

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Speaker 2: have to hear Democrats answering for who's the most radical

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Speaker 2: member of our thing. Well, you know, the Republicans have

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Speaker 2: a bunch of domestic abusers, and the vile racist islamophobe

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Speaker 2: versus the Nazi who got twenty percent in the race.

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Speaker 1: Well, the islamophobe one. So Randy Fine is probably coming

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Speaker 1: back to Congress. Yeah, there's nothing to say there. But

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Speaker 1: Mary Poltola in the great state of Alaska, which is

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Speaker 1: you'll remember, a red state, did got forty eight percent

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Speaker 1: of the vote versus forty two percent Dan Sullivan. And

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Speaker 1: then there's Daniel J. Sullivan, the professor who there's a

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Speaker 1: very good piece in the New York Times about a

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Speaker 1: journalist who want to visit him in his fishing village.

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Speaker 1: Daniel J. Sullivan taking two point four percent of the vote.

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Speaker 1: He will be in the runoff with David b. Leslie,

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Speaker 1: So we will see. But it looks really good for

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Speaker 1: Peltola at forty eight percent, so close.

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Speaker 2: And we should say that this is a unconventional primary.

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Speaker 2: This is one of those open primaries where the top

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Speaker 2: four go, not unlike California where the Democrats and Republicans

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Speaker 2: run together and everything so very strange. But this gives

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Speaker 2: a huge vege for Democratics to help the Senate.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, it's a very good night for Democrats

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Speaker 1: in the state of Alaska.

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Speaker 2: SAMAI I know you knew that it was tuck Tuesday

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Speaker 2: over at Tacumbe on the Upper East Side, But did

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Speaker 2: you know for Trump's tariffs on Canada it was also

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Speaker 2: Taco Tuesday?

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Speaker 1: I mean, what even is happening here? So he's paused

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Speaker 1: for three days fifty percent tariffs on Canadian goods because

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Speaker 1: of course he has and because Mark Corney got him

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Speaker 1: on the phone and was like, what the fuck? And

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Speaker 1: he's mad? Why is Trump madic Canada? Why is Trump

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Speaker 1: madic Canada but happy with Iran? Right? Why is Trump

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Speaker 1: madic Canada but trying to negotiate with North Korea? Because

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Speaker 1: my man's got brainworms? And so here we are. I've

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Speaker 1: paused the fifty percent tariff against Canada that we're scheduled

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Speaker 1: to get in tomorrow morning for three day period based

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Speaker 1: on the fact that Canada, the US, subject to the

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Speaker 1: finalization of documents, has a deal. Who even knows? I mean,

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Speaker 1: this guy is like so cooked. No press has ever

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Speaker 1: used SECTIONED two three hundred and thirty eight to impose

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Speaker 1: tariff since it became law in nineteen thirty. Do you

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Speaker 1: know what happened in nineteen thirty, Jssey?

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Speaker 2: Well, that might have been this thing where people got

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Speaker 2: really depressed. Oh wait, with a great depression.

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Speaker 3: That's what it works.

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Speaker 1: Okay, got it got great depression. It was the Great Depression.

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Speaker 1: You may remember it as not the best of times.

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Speaker 1: We're fighting with our allies but trying to make peace

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Speaker 1: with murderous dictators. It's almost a decade of watching this

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Speaker 1: go and at every point it's just so incredibly stupid.

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Speaker 2: So Mali. Last night, also in addition to the election

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Speaker 2: was a debate for the South Carolina seat that opened

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Speaker 2: with Lindsay Graham and Trump's preferred candidate, Senator Darlen Ingraham,

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Speaker 2: who's currently in a seat. She did a hell of

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Speaker 2: the showing why don't we.

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Speaker 1: Typically listen to the tape?

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Speaker 2: Oh yeah, it's going to be good.

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Speaker 3: Okay.

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Speaker 4: On the national security question as well, Senator, are Taiwan

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Speaker 4: in the South China Sea national security issues for the

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Speaker 4: United States? If so wide, I'm sorry, could you repeat

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Speaker 4: the ore Taiwan and the South China Sea national security

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Speaker 4: issues for the United States? And if so, why or how?

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Speaker 5: I'm just going to be honest here, I'm not on

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Speaker 5: national security that I'm not that informed by national security, so,

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Speaker 5: but I do support the military. My brother was in

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Speaker 5: the Air Force for thirty three years, so I will

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Speaker 5: do everything I can to support the military. My dad

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Speaker 5: was in the army. I'm not a polished politician up here.

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Speaker 5: I'm not. National security is not my thing, not my

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Speaker 5: area of expertise, but I do support the military.

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Speaker 1: Cars.

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Speaker 4: I'll give you a chance.

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Speaker 1: It's so stupid, It's like one of the all, why

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Speaker 1: should we Taiwan produces what seventy percent of all the

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Speaker 1: semiconductor chips, Like if they fucking fall, we all we're

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Speaker 1: all cooked.

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Speaker 2: I think that this is a really actually, really really

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Speaker 2: nice thing that we can all see. You know, one

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Speaker 2: sibling has a passion for invading any country they could

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Speaker 2: find on a map, and another sibling probably can't point

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Speaker 2: to a single other country on the map. But really

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Speaker 2: shows you nature and nurture are very separate things.

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Speaker 1: It is. But also the fact that she thought that

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Speaker 1: was an okay answer, right, Like folk, I'm not really

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Speaker 1: a politician and I don't know anything about national security.

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Speaker 1: You don't know about Taiwan and China, Like whoever briefed

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Speaker 1: you should go to the Hague, okay, because you would

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Speaker 1: have had to have not read a paper This means

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Speaker 1: that there are people in this administration who are really

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Speaker 1: not thinking about what happens if China tries to take Taiwan,

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Speaker 1: and that I think is really scary. And also I

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Speaker 1: also think it's really possible she doesn't win. But this

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Speaker 1: is a Trump endorsement, it's not a South Carolina is

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Speaker 1: not a Democratic pickup opportunity. Very be very, very surprised.

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Speaker 1: But she clearly does not know what the folks she's

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Speaker 1: talking about.

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Speaker 6: I mean, Charlie Sykes is the author of the newsletter

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Speaker 6: to the Contrary and the book How the Right Lost

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Speaker 6: Its Mind.

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Speaker 1: Welcome, Welcome, Charlie Sikes.

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Speaker 7: Well, happy birthday. Feel honored that you've talked to me

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Speaker 7: on such a special day.

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Speaker 1: You know, I am a big fan of yours and

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Speaker 1: I find you to be. You know, even though we

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Speaker 1: don't agree on a lot of stuff, we agree on

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Speaker 1: some important stuff. Okay, but now we are going to

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Speaker 1: have the moment of schadenfreude for my birthday. Ten Trump

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Speaker 1: and the worst candidates that have already lost in twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty six, and they include I'm not gonna read but

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Speaker 1: an Iowa governor, Georgia governor, South Carolina, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Wyoming, Texas,

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Speaker 1: a ton of governors in agh and that a bunch

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Speaker 1: of congressional seats. Does this mean Trump does not have

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Speaker 1: the power he used to have, Yes, yea. And I

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Speaker 1: want you to also get to why are Republicans still

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Speaker 1: so terrified of him?

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Speaker 7: Well, I mean, at least at one point they were

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Speaker 7: terrified of him because, you know, one truth social post

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Speaker 7: could end your political career. Trump's endorsement could turn a

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Speaker 7: race around. Trump's blessing could push forward a candidate that

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Speaker 7: would otherwise have been dead man or dead woman walking.

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Speaker 3: That's clearly no longer the case.

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Speaker 7: However, I guess I would like to share the Shotenfreda

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Speaker 7: with you.

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Speaker 3: But the reality is is that.

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Speaker 7: That even the candidates who win over the Trump endorse

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Speaker 7: candidates are still pro Trump.

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Speaker 3: There are no anti Trump candidates running.

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Speaker 7: We're not dealing in a year in which there's a

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Speaker 7: serious debate within the Republican Party.

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Speaker 3: Should we go along with Donald Trump? Should we not

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Speaker 3: go along with Donald Trump.

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Speaker 7: I can't think of any prominent Republican who's on the

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Speaker 7: ballot who is actually broken with Trump on the corruption,

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Speaker 7: on the war, on the economy, on any of these things.

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Speaker 7: So Basically you have Trump heavy, Trump medium, Trump light, but.

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Speaker 3: They're all Trump.

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Speaker 7: So yeah, maybe there's not a magic Trump touch anymore.

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Speaker 7: But I don't think that we ought to underestimate how

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Speaker 7: thoroughly Magafy the Republican Party remains, right.

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Speaker 1: I think that's a really good point. And you know,

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Speaker 1: as someone who gets very into optimism, it's really important

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Speaker 1: to remember that this is still you know, in twenty sixteen,

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Speaker 1: there were not never Trump candidates running for office, and

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Speaker 1: they're gone, right.

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Speaker 7: I mean, we don't have a Chris Christy, you don't

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Speaker 7: have a Jeff Flake, you don't have a mid Romney,

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Speaker 7: you don't have any of those candidates. There was once

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Speaker 7: an open debate about all of this. You know that

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Speaker 7: you would have somewhere in America some Republican candidate running

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Speaker 7: in the primary who was running in opposition to Trump's

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Speaker 7: around war. Now you have you know, Tucker Carlson out there,

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Speaker 7: but he's not actually running. So we're not at that

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Speaker 7: Republicans after Trump phase quite yet.

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Speaker 3: I'm sorry to say, well, I'm not sorry.

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Speaker 7: I'm not sorry to say it, because this means that

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Speaker 7: going into the midterms, there are no Republicans who have

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Speaker 7: any reasonable ability to distance himself from what Donald Trump

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Speaker 7: is doing, what he's saying. I mean, they they bought

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Speaker 7: this ticket. They are on for the ride all the

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Speaker 7: way through. And you know, just was it? Last week

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Speaker 7: we saw Republican senators who knew better decide to cave

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Speaker 7: into Donald Trump once again and vote to confirm Todd Blanch.

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Speaker 3: So we still live in Trump's Republican America.

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Speaker 1: And Todd Blanch then immediately did a political rally where

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Speaker 1: and went on television and said that in fact, independence

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Speaker 1: is not the job of the DJ which is preposterous

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Speaker 1: and also insane.

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Speaker 3: Well and dangerous.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so let's talk about this idea. Though there have

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Speaker 1: been Trump has been disappointed by the primary voters. And

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Speaker 1: I think it's pretty interesting, especially when you look at race,

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Speaker 1: like we're seeing this phenomenon. I think of Corey Mills.

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Speaker 1: So Florida was last night Corey Mills had was another

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Speaker 1: scandal plagued like a Max Miller. And Corey Mills had

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Speaker 1: this situation where he got a Trump endorsement and then

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Speaker 1: it looked like he was really going to lose. So

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Speaker 1: Trump didn't unindorse, he just backed away talk us through that.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, Well, I mean look Donald Trump hates being a

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Speaker 7: loser more than anything in the world, right. I mean,

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Speaker 7: you know, if it doesn't matter how loyal you've been

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Speaker 7: to him, how much you supported him, the more that

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Speaker 7: Trump senses any weakness, He's going to.

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Speaker 3: Throw you under the bus.

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Speaker 7: Now, Corey Mills is in many ways a special case.

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Speaker 7: He was so loaded and larded with scandal sexual abuse

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Speaker 7: that you know, of affairs. He's being investigated by the

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Speaker 7: House Ethics Committee. It's been accused of stolen valor. I

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Speaker 7: mean this guy, I mean, this guy had scandals jumping

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Speaker 7: off him like bugs. So the question would be, is

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Speaker 7: in you know, has Trump managed to create degrade the

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Speaker 7: issue of character to the point where that doesn't matter

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Speaker 7: at all.

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Speaker 3: Well, in Florida turns out to matter enough to get

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Speaker 3: rid of Corey Mills.

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Speaker 7: He's still sort of in with Max Miller because look,

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Speaker 7: I mean, for Donald Trump can never say that sexually

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Speaker 7: abusing women is disqualifying, can he.

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Speaker 1: I mean, he hadn't imagine why he cannot say that.

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Speaker 1: But he can bring his Egene Carroll case to the

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Speaker 1: Supreme Court yet again to have them say and.

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Speaker 3: He can lose once again with the Supreme Court. And

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Speaker 3: so this is.

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Speaker 7: Something that every once in a while, I think we

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Speaker 7: ought to take the opportunity to remind ourselves that this

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Speaker 7: is the man who's sitting in the Oval office is

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Speaker 7: a convicted felon, the first time anyone has ever been

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Speaker 7: a convicted felon elected to that office, who also has

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Speaker 7: been found liable for sexually abusing and then defaming a woman,

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Speaker 7: and that that verdict has been upheld by the US

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Speaker 7: Supreme Court. You would think that would send some ripples

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Speaker 7: through the American political system or the Republican Party. It's

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Speaker 7: notable that, as you and I are speaking, nothing has

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Speaker 7: one Republican said, you know what, I'm going to draw

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Speaker 7: the line at sexual assault. I'm going to draw the

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Speaker 7: line at sexual abuse. So this is why it's awkward

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Speaker 7: if you say that, gosh, we can't support Max Miller. Guys,

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Speaker 7: have you noticed who your president is and what he

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Speaker 7: says on a daily basis?

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Speaker 1: And I think it's interesting that they say it's not

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Speaker 1: that they're not supporting him because they're better than that,

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Speaker 1: they're not supporting him because they don't think he can win,

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Speaker 1: which is a certain kind of they're making a certain

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Speaker 1: kind I mean, obviously it's a calculus, but they're also there.

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Speaker 1: It's a confession a little bit, oh, very it's very much.

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Speaker 3: It's very much a confession.

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Speaker 7: And I think this is where it does actually matter

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Speaker 7: that Democrats did clean their own their own house in Maine.

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Speaker 7: And there's a reason why Eric Swalwell is not still

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Speaker 7: in Congress. And I know that there are people who

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Speaker 7: say no, if they have no standards, we should have

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Speaker 7: no standards either. But it's at moments like this where

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Speaker 7: you go, Okay, this is a political Republicans or a

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Speaker 7: political party that that is behaving completely differently on these issues.

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Speaker 7: And the allegations are again horrendous.

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Speaker 3: For these guys.

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Speaker 7: So Donald Trump was not able to save Corey Mills

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Speaker 7: in the primary, and he's unlikely to save I think

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Speaker 7: he's unlikely to save Maximillan in the general election. Yeah,

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Speaker 7: or maybe that's maybe that's wishful thinking.

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Speaker 1: I mean, Max Miller, the allegations against him, violence towards why,

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Speaker 1: violence towards his two year old daughter. I mean, just

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Speaker 1: a pretty atrocious situation. I would love, I would love

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Speaker 1: to talk about these this interesting story and axios for

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Speaker 1: a minute with you. So basically, he has hit the

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Speaker 1: Republicans who strongly approve of Trump, that is maga. Those

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Speaker 1: are the people wear the T shirts and go to

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Speaker 1: the concerts. They his performance with that number has dropped

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Speaker 1: by twenty points, from sixty eight percent to forty eight percent.

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Speaker 1: Can you explain to our listeners what's strong what the

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Speaker 1: importance of strongly of those strongly agree voters?

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Speaker 7: Yeah, those are the people who are going to crawl

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Speaker 7: through glass to vote, walk through fire. Those are the

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Speaker 7: people who are with him no matter how corrupt he is,

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Speaker 7: no matter what he says, who actually seem to delight

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Speaker 7: in the more outrageous, the more the more brutal that

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Speaker 7: he was. But what you are seeing is the kind

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Speaker 7: of erosion that frankly, we haven't seen before. And I

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Speaker 7: think this is part of the difficulty of you know,

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Speaker 7: ten years of trump Ism to separate the signal from

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Speaker 7: the noise. And there spent a lot of time when

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Speaker 7: people have said, well, he was maga cracking up as

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Speaker 7: he losing his grip. That's the number that suggests that

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Speaker 7: there's real fatigue setting in. And it's because I think Trump,

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Speaker 7: as I've said before, has become increasingly tone deaf, completely,

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Speaker 7: you know, increasingly indifferent to his own his own base.

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Speaker 7: I mean, this is a guy that put together a

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Speaker 7: rather impressive coalition, I grudgingly admit, on a populous message

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Speaker 7: that you know, he was the voice of the forgotten man.

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Speaker 7: And what has he spent his second term on ballrooms?

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Speaker 7: Reflecting ponds, corruption, enriching himself, an endless, pointless war in Iran,

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Speaker 7: forcing higher gas prices, reigniting inflation, spooking the hell out

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Speaker 7: of the bond market. And at some point, Yeah, there

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Speaker 7: is going to be a certain amount of political gravity.

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Speaker 7: And there's been a time when we wondered whether that

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Speaker 7: would ever happened because what he had created was more

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Speaker 7: like a than a political party. The cult remains, but

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Speaker 7: it's a shrinking cult and that's important.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I want to talk to you about this idea

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Speaker 1: and again there and we have I think this is interesting,

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Speaker 1: this idea that we're seeing. We've seen in the primaries

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Speaker 1: and a lot of the people who were very involved

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Speaker 1: in the tech in the twenty sixteen Trump Resists Trump

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Speaker 1: movement get not rewarded by voters. Vinman was last night.

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Speaker 1: We saw Dan Goldman lost his seat. We saw there

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Speaker 1: have been a number of There was a member of

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Speaker 1: Congress who was an impeachment manager who lost her seat.

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Speaker 1: We've seen just a lot of that. I wonder if

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Speaker 1: you could tell me do you think that is a coincidence.

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Speaker 1: Do you think that's a relevant theory? What do you think?

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Speaker 3: Well, I think each one of those cases is different.

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Speaker 7: Okay, So I'm a you know, I admire alex Vinman,

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Speaker 7: you know, extremely. I mean, he he you know, laid

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Speaker 7: his career, in his life on the line when he

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Speaker 7: testified against Donald Trump, when he was a whistleblower during

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Speaker 7: the Trump first impeachment.

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Speaker 3: The man has couraged, the man had integrity.

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Speaker 7: But ultimately, you know, those things don't necessarily mean you're

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Speaker 7: gonna be a good candidate in a in a an

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Speaker 7: election the size of Florida, you know, and you have

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Speaker 7: to be a good candidate, and you have to run

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Speaker 7: a good campaign. And I think you could make the

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Speaker 7: case that that Alex Vindman, as admirable as he is,

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Speaker 7: and I don't want to not dissing him in any way.

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Speaker 7: I'm very disappointed by that was not an optimal candidate

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Speaker 7: and did not run a very good campaign under the circumstances.

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Speaker 7: But I do think it's worth highlighting the fact that

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Speaker 7: you know, people like Dan Goldman were defeated in the primary.

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Speaker 7: Because I think there's a misapprehension that a lot of

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Speaker 7: this this insurgent from the left is about, you know,

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Speaker 7: looking for people who will fight Trump more, who will

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Speaker 7: stand up with them. I'm getting the sense that it's

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Speaker 7: not about that at all, that it's about people who

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Speaker 7: have their own ideology agenda, want to sketch their ideologically

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Speaker 7: and are more concerned with attacking other Democrats than they

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Speaker 7: are with actually winning general elections or beating Donald Trump.

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Speaker 3: Because you know.

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Speaker 7: You think about a lot of these people that are

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Speaker 7: now you know the is this person in the future

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Speaker 7: of the Democratic Party? Well, you know what they were

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Speaker 7: doing in twenty twenty four. A lot of these folks

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Speaker 7: were sitting out the election. We're saying that they didn't

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Speaker 7: see a difference between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Now

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Speaker 7: that's a key moment, and I frankly do not want

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Speaker 7: to be lectured by people who did not see a

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Speaker 7: difference between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump now saying that

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Speaker 7: we need to rally around them because they will be

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Speaker 7: the fighters against Donald Trump. So, I mean, I do

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Speaker 7: think that sometimes there's a confusion of the categories here.

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Speaker 1: Man, I'm gonna push back a little bit, which is

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Speaker 1: to say, I think there are I think that maybe

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Speaker 1: there may be candidates like that my senses. I I

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Speaker 1: still think in the races where the and we can talk,

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Speaker 1: I mean we can let's talk about the Angie Nixon

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Speaker 1: alex Van men because she won definitively, and again it's

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Speaker 1: a red state and it's only gotten red and the voter,

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Speaker 1: you know, but David Jolly is a kind of candidate

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Speaker 1: who could win for governor in a red state. So

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Speaker 1: there's the that and he's on the bout. So the

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Speaker 1: question is does the candidate, the Senate candidate, affect him

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Speaker 1: and how? But in my mind, what I saw when

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Speaker 1: I saw her on Morning Joe this Morning and I

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Speaker 1: and again, this was a race that was not on

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Speaker 1: anyone's radar because it was not polled. Right. There was

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Speaker 1: no polling, which is in itself when one candidate has

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Speaker 1: raised more than ten million dollars kind of insane. Right,

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Speaker 1: there was no polling, and she was really thought of

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Speaker 1: as an insurgent. One the things I was struck by

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Speaker 1: was the message is not fight Trump, right, it's fight

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Speaker 1: It's not like in twenty sixteen, you had candidates who'd say,

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Speaker 1: we want to go back to normal, we want to

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Speaker 1: get the status quo back, and because we're so far

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Speaker 1: into economic inequality, we voters that's not enough for them,

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Speaker 1: and so they want more. And she I mean again,

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Speaker 1: I'm not I don't know enough about her, and I

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Speaker 1: know she did, but one of the things that I

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Speaker 1: know from her time in the state House was that

436
00:25:34,920 --> 00:25:38,840
Speaker 1: she was much of what she ran against was actually Dysantis, right.

437
00:25:39,160 --> 00:25:43,480
Speaker 1: She did these like protests on the floor against DeSantis.

438
00:25:43,480 --> 00:25:47,720
Speaker 1: She was very loud against the Santis. Again, I don't know.

439
00:25:48,280 --> 00:25:50,359
Speaker 1: I don't know how that plays in a general but

440
00:25:50,520 --> 00:25:54,320
Speaker 1: I do I'm struck by the idea that that is

441
00:25:54,359 --> 00:25:58,560
Speaker 1: not enough, that the lesson that the voters have come

442
00:25:58,600 --> 00:26:01,240
Speaker 1: from twenty sixteen with like you can't just not be

443
00:26:01,320 --> 00:26:01,960
Speaker 1: Donald Trump.

444
00:26:02,160 --> 00:26:05,880
Speaker 7: Well obviously that's true, but the problem is is that, well,

445
00:26:05,920 --> 00:26:07,000
Speaker 7: I don't take my word for it.

446
00:26:07,080 --> 00:26:09,359
Speaker 3: You know Larry Sabado's crystal ball this morning.

447
00:26:09,200 --> 00:26:13,800
Speaker 7: No no, I move in Florida from likely Republican now too

448
00:26:13,880 --> 00:26:17,480
Speaker 7: solidly Republican. So Vinman was unlikely to win that. I

449
00:26:17,520 --> 00:26:19,840
Speaker 7: think he had a shot to at least force the

450
00:26:19,920 --> 00:26:23,360
Speaker 7: Republicans to spend a lot of money. I don't think

451
00:26:23,400 --> 00:26:25,880
Speaker 7: she's going to be bringing in that outside money. There's

452
00:26:25,920 --> 00:26:30,399
Speaker 7: a bright spot there. Democrats won't necessarily be squandering fifty

453
00:26:30,440 --> 00:26:34,160
Speaker 7: million dollars on a losing cause there. But I also

454
00:26:34,480 --> 00:26:37,560
Speaker 7: think that and I'm concerned about it feeding the narrative.

455
00:26:37,560 --> 00:26:39,840
Speaker 7: So anyways, I don't think she's going to win. I

456
00:26:39,880 --> 00:26:43,480
Speaker 7: hope she does not drag down David Jolly. My main

457
00:26:43,560 --> 00:26:46,800
Speaker 7: concern is that in twenty twenty eight, the Democrats are

458
00:26:46,800 --> 00:26:49,760
Speaker 7: going to have to make a decision. Do they nominate

459
00:26:50,200 --> 00:26:53,520
Speaker 7: a candidate, say, who's actually won elections in swing states,

460
00:26:53,560 --> 00:26:57,119
Speaker 7: like I don't know John Ossoff or Mark Kelly or

461
00:26:57,160 --> 00:27:00,520
Speaker 7: Andy Basheer or Alyssa Slackin or some but he's.

462
00:27:00,320 --> 00:27:02,600
Speaker 3: Actually one in one of those swing states.

463
00:27:02,760 --> 00:27:05,120
Speaker 7: Or are they going to scratch their ideologically and move

464
00:27:05,280 --> 00:27:08,399
Speaker 7: hard left as the Labor Party did with Jeremy Corbin,

465
00:27:08,640 --> 00:27:12,399
Speaker 7: as Democrats did with George mcgovernor in nineteen seventy, which

466
00:27:12,760 --> 00:27:16,160
Speaker 7: unfortunately could snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. I mean,

467
00:27:16,200 --> 00:27:18,440
Speaker 7: the states are huge in twenty twenty six. They are

468
00:27:18,480 --> 00:27:23,720
Speaker 7: exponentially existentially greater in twenty twenty eight, and if Democrats

469
00:27:23,800 --> 00:27:28,879
Speaker 7: convince themselves, then embracing the Democratic Socialists of America is

470
00:27:28,920 --> 00:27:31,200
Speaker 7: a good idea. I think they're in for a root awakening.

471
00:27:31,240 --> 00:27:33,440
Speaker 7: I think this is a huge gift to the National

472
00:27:33,480 --> 00:27:37,160
Speaker 7: Republican Senate Committee. And I think that when you see

473
00:27:37,640 --> 00:27:40,560
Speaker 7: tens of millions of dollars of oppo research aimed at

474
00:27:40,560 --> 00:27:42,960
Speaker 7: Democrats trying to tie them to this, I think the

475
00:27:43,000 --> 00:27:47,720
Speaker 7: people will recognize that this is as dangerous for democratic

476
00:27:47,840 --> 00:27:51,680
Speaker 7: prospects of winning elections as the defund the police issue

477
00:27:51,800 --> 00:27:55,520
Speaker 7: was a few years ago. We now almost universally recognize this,

478
00:27:55,920 --> 00:27:58,320
Speaker 7: and yet in one of these primaries after another, we

479
00:27:58,359 --> 00:28:01,440
Speaker 7: have people who want to defund the police, abolished prisons,

480
00:28:01,720 --> 00:28:07,240
Speaker 7: open the border, abandoned Ukraine, abandoned NATO, defund the Pentagon,

481
00:28:07,640 --> 00:28:12,879
Speaker 7: and take positions way outside the mainstream. Capitalism is in

482
00:28:13,720 --> 00:28:16,400
Speaker 7: is in a crisis right now. It does not mean

483
00:28:16,440 --> 00:28:20,320
Speaker 7: that the swing voters are going to embrace government seizure

484
00:28:20,320 --> 00:28:23,400
Speaker 7: of the means of production. If anything, now I've learned

485
00:28:23,560 --> 00:28:26,320
Speaker 7: how dangerous it is to give that much. I mean,

486
00:28:26,440 --> 00:28:30,320
Speaker 7: imagine imagine a state in which the government controlled the

487
00:28:30,359 --> 00:28:33,119
Speaker 7: means of production, but that state was run by Donald Trump.

488
00:28:33,400 --> 00:28:36,000
Speaker 7: I want people to think about that, right, but I.

489
00:28:35,960 --> 00:28:39,640
Speaker 1: Would say Donald Trump has seized shares of intel. I mean,

490
00:28:39,680 --> 00:28:42,440
Speaker 1: he's done a number of seizing the means of production

491
00:28:42,840 --> 00:28:48,320
Speaker 1: style takeovers a government of companies. So he fought he

492
00:28:48,400 --> 00:28:52,640
Speaker 1: comes much closer to actual communism.

493
00:28:52,320 --> 00:28:54,240
Speaker 3: But yet as praising communists.

494
00:28:54,320 --> 00:28:59,360
Speaker 1: Right, But I do think that the importance of getting

495
00:28:59,400 --> 00:29:03,840
Speaker 1: the middle he cannot be On that said, I also

496
00:29:03,960 --> 00:29:08,200
Speaker 1: think that two things can be true right, like that

497
00:29:08,360 --> 00:29:11,480
Speaker 1: there are I just I think we have to get

498
00:29:11,480 --> 00:29:14,520
Speaker 1: through his midterms before anyone starts thinking about twenty twenty eight,

499
00:29:14,600 --> 00:29:16,840
Speaker 1: because there are going to be a lot of unique

500
00:29:16,880 --> 00:29:20,360
Speaker 1: problems that Trump is going to create for these midterms.

501
00:29:20,400 --> 00:29:22,800
Speaker 3: And he's just well I agree with that.

502
00:29:23,120 --> 00:29:26,360
Speaker 1: And he's so unpopular and he sees and the thing

503
00:29:26,400 --> 00:29:28,560
Speaker 1: that makes me the most worried right now is that

504
00:29:29,040 --> 00:29:32,600
Speaker 1: he is not running like someone who is worried about winning,

505
00:29:33,080 --> 00:29:35,880
Speaker 1: which could be good but could be bad.

506
00:29:36,320 --> 00:29:38,200
Speaker 3: Well, I'm in the I am in the and I

507
00:29:38,200 --> 00:29:38,640
Speaker 3: admit this.

508
00:29:38,720 --> 00:29:41,440
Speaker 7: I'm in the alarmist camp that says that you know,

509
00:29:41,480 --> 00:29:43,360
Speaker 7: we know what he's done in the past with with

510
00:29:43,520 --> 00:29:46,040
Speaker 7: January sixth, he's already done it. We know what he's

511
00:29:46,040 --> 00:29:49,560
Speaker 7: saying about the elections, and this time, unlike previous elections,

512
00:29:49,600 --> 00:29:52,960
Speaker 7: he's put in place the entire all of government infrastructure

513
00:29:53,400 --> 00:29:56,880
Speaker 7: to not only interfere with the elections. But maybe you know,

514
00:29:56,960 --> 00:30:00,480
Speaker 7: to look, words are extreme, but this is a man

515
00:30:00,520 --> 00:30:03,720
Speaker 7: that actually tried to coup in the past. Yeah, so

516
00:30:04,760 --> 00:30:06,440
Speaker 7: I do think that we ought to worry about that,

517
00:30:06,600 --> 00:30:09,360
Speaker 7: which is why this is perhaps not the moment for

518
00:30:09,440 --> 00:30:12,560
Speaker 7: the Democratic Party to abandon the normies, right.

519
00:30:13,200 --> 00:30:16,560
Speaker 1: I mean, we're the back and forth on this one cover.

520
00:30:16,840 --> 00:30:20,480
Speaker 1: But because we're friends, we are having this conversation in

521
00:30:20,560 --> 00:30:24,120
Speaker 1: a good way. But I would also say, like that

522
00:30:24,320 --> 00:30:29,040
Speaker 1: is true. But I mean again, I think there's a

523
00:30:29,400 --> 00:30:31,960
Speaker 1: there is a sense in which and again we'll see

524
00:30:32,000 --> 00:30:35,160
Speaker 1: how this goes right in the midterms. I mean, obviously,

525
00:30:35,280 --> 00:30:38,080
Speaker 1: Angie Craig, it's I think is more of an intellectual

526
00:30:38,120 --> 00:30:44,600
Speaker 1: conversation than like a doctor L said, who has We've

527
00:30:44,640 --> 00:30:46,640
Speaker 1: seen a lot of polls with him ahead, and he

528
00:30:46,720 --> 00:30:50,160
Speaker 1: is running against someone who lives in Florida, Mike Rogers,

529
00:30:50,240 --> 00:30:53,040
Speaker 1: who has run before. I mean, he's he's I mean,

530
00:30:53,120 --> 00:30:55,480
Speaker 1: the polls we've seen have him and there's a Fox

531
00:30:55,520 --> 00:30:57,520
Speaker 1: News poll that has him behind, but the last poll

532
00:30:57,560 --> 00:31:00,080
Speaker 1: I just saw as him at forty five and thirty.

533
00:31:00,720 --> 00:31:03,600
Speaker 1: But I would also say one other thing I want

534
00:31:03,600 --> 00:31:05,800
Speaker 1: to I'm gonna just I want to end with is

535
00:31:05,840 --> 00:31:09,840
Speaker 1: in that Florida election with Byron Donalds, Byron Donalds was

536
00:31:09,840 --> 00:31:12,000
Speaker 1: not able to crack fifty percent, And.

537
00:31:12,640 --> 00:31:14,880
Speaker 7: Dear what, David Jelly is a quality candidate who's been

538
00:31:14,960 --> 00:31:18,800
Speaker 7: running a quality campaign. And so maybe and and so,

539
00:31:19,040 --> 00:31:20,960
Speaker 7: I mean, one of the things that we have not

540
00:31:21,040 --> 00:31:22,920
Speaker 7: seen lately is people who've been willing to split the

541
00:31:22,960 --> 00:31:26,080
Speaker 7: ticket vote for Republicans on one issue and Democrats and another,

542
00:31:26,640 --> 00:31:29,880
Speaker 7: which makes me worried about her dragging David Jolly down.

543
00:31:29,920 --> 00:31:34,360
Speaker 7: But in Michigan, Jocelyn Benson, who's the Democratic Canady for governor,

544
00:31:34,400 --> 00:31:36,600
Speaker 7: has a very very solid lead. She's you know, leading

545
00:31:36,640 --> 00:31:40,160
Speaker 7: among independents. She's got a solid lead over the MAGA

546
00:31:40,360 --> 00:31:44,960
Speaker 7: Republican for governor. L said, however, is underwater with independence.

547
00:31:44,960 --> 00:31:47,720
Speaker 7: And I think it's that delta, that gap between people

548
00:31:47,720 --> 00:31:50,600
Speaker 7: willing to vote for the Democrat for governor but at

549
00:31:50,640 --> 00:31:52,840
Speaker 7: this point not willing to vote for the Democrat for

550
00:31:52,880 --> 00:31:55,200
Speaker 7: senator that you need to keep our eye on because

551
00:31:55,240 --> 00:31:59,760
Speaker 7: the real tragedy would be that Michigan votes strongly for

552
00:31:59,800 --> 00:32:04,160
Speaker 7: a Democratic governor, but the Democratic candidate for Senate falls short,

553
00:32:04,720 --> 00:32:07,720
Speaker 7: and even a one vote majority for Donald Trump in

554
00:32:07,760 --> 00:32:11,520
Speaker 7: the Senate could could change the trajectory of the next

555
00:32:11,520 --> 00:32:14,720
Speaker 7: decade quite frankly, talk about the Supreme Court for sure.

556
00:32:14,800 --> 00:32:17,640
Speaker 1: For sure, Charlie Sykes.

557
00:32:17,080 --> 00:32:19,720
Speaker 3: Will you come back anytime? Happy birthday.

558
00:32:20,720 --> 00:32:23,280
Speaker 2: G Elliott Morris is the author of the Strength and

559
00:32:23,400 --> 00:32:24,320
Speaker 2: Number substeck.

560
00:32:24,880 --> 00:32:27,760
Speaker 1: Welcome, Welcome, g Elliott.

561
00:32:27,360 --> 00:32:29,320
Speaker 8: Morris, thanks for having me back, Molly.

562
00:32:30,680 --> 00:32:37,000
Speaker 1: So there are social experiments in the form of polls.

563
00:32:37,360 --> 00:32:39,840
Speaker 1: This is a story that broke this week and basically

564
00:32:40,000 --> 00:32:44,200
Speaker 1: to at least two, maybe more, but probably just two

565
00:32:44,560 --> 00:32:49,239
Speaker 1: polls were Two different polls came out. One was a

566
00:32:49,240 --> 00:32:53,640
Speaker 1: poll that had Francesca hanway ahead in the Wisconsin governor's race,

567
00:32:53,680 --> 00:32:58,600
Speaker 1: and the other was a poll that had in the

568
00:32:58,840 --> 00:33:01,920
Speaker 1: California in the Los Angeles mayor's race. It had Karen

569
00:33:02,000 --> 00:33:05,080
Speaker 1: Bass head by four or five points, right.

570
00:33:05,200 --> 00:33:06,160
Speaker 8: Yoh, how whatever.

571
00:33:07,320 --> 00:33:10,520
Speaker 9: I'm not familiar with what the results are because, as

572
00:33:10,760 --> 00:33:14,080
Speaker 9: we have all learned, it was not a real survey.

573
00:33:14,680 --> 00:33:18,680
Speaker 1: It turns out so anyway, But Karen Bass did tweet

574
00:33:18,720 --> 00:33:21,680
Speaker 1: it out and then delete it. The Hong poll I

575
00:33:21,760 --> 00:33:25,840
Speaker 1: saw everywhere and it was astonishing because it had our

576
00:33:25,960 --> 00:33:28,360
Speaker 1: leading by twenty points. Anyway, the point of this is

577
00:33:28,400 --> 00:33:33,720
Speaker 1: that now the company, the pollster, which is actually a

578
00:33:33,760 --> 00:33:36,520
Speaker 1: strategy company, has come out and said it was a

579
00:33:36,520 --> 00:33:42,320
Speaker 1: social experiment and that they are that you know, and

580
00:33:42,360 --> 00:33:44,080
Speaker 1: they that was sort of it, that it was a

581
00:33:44,120 --> 00:33:48,840
Speaker 1: social experiment and it wasn't based on any actual anything.

582
00:33:49,120 --> 00:33:52,440
Speaker 1: So what's your take on this?

583
00:33:53,040 --> 00:33:57,600
Speaker 9: Yeah, I mean people have been making up polling for

584
00:33:57,840 --> 00:34:01,880
Speaker 9: some time. I remember some cases in the two thousand

585
00:34:02,160 --> 00:34:08,680
Speaker 9: primary cycle of users of the prediction market platform predict

586
00:34:08,719 --> 00:34:13,680
Speaker 9: it talking on private chat groups conspiring to create fake

587
00:34:13,719 --> 00:34:17,759
Speaker 9: Twitter accounts that then would publish alleged surveys, and the

588
00:34:17,800 --> 00:34:21,920
Speaker 9: intent there was to manufacture price movement into prediction markets.

589
00:34:22,360 --> 00:34:26,120
Speaker 9: So that has happened in every election cycle since then.

590
00:34:26,239 --> 00:34:28,279
Speaker 9: There's always a case, one or two cases of this,

591
00:34:28,719 --> 00:34:31,520
Speaker 9: and then people get caught or told on and they

592
00:34:31,520 --> 00:34:34,200
Speaker 9: stop publishing it and they fade away back back into

593
00:34:34,200 --> 00:34:38,839
Speaker 9: the ether. So it's not totally not totally new. What

594
00:34:39,040 --> 00:34:45,440
Speaker 9: is new is how many legitimate news outlets bought these surveys,

595
00:34:45,600 --> 00:34:50,400
Speaker 9: so called surveys that had absolutely no methodological information published

596
00:34:50,400 --> 00:34:53,200
Speaker 9: about them at all on a website, by the way,

597
00:34:53,239 --> 00:34:56,359
Speaker 9: that was very clearly completely AI generated. Like you can

598
00:34:56,440 --> 00:34:58,719
Speaker 9: just tell by reading these websites if you read enough

599
00:34:58,719 --> 00:35:01,640
Speaker 9: of this sort of text. So the success of the

600
00:35:01,680 --> 00:35:05,800
Speaker 9: Hoodwink maybe was higher than similar.

601
00:35:06,200 --> 00:35:07,240
Speaker 8: Attempts in the past.

602
00:35:08,040 --> 00:35:09,799
Speaker 9: I mean, I think some of these some of the

603
00:35:10,000 --> 00:35:14,080
Speaker 9: tweets about these quote survey results got like tens of

604
00:35:14,160 --> 00:35:16,200
Speaker 9: thousands of likes and retweets.

605
00:35:15,760 --> 00:35:17,680
Speaker 8: So they really made their way around there.

606
00:35:17,760 --> 00:35:20,920
Speaker 9: And it's a good reminder that not every poll you

607
00:35:21,040 --> 00:35:24,359
Speaker 9: see on your screens created equal and some of them

608
00:35:24,360 --> 00:35:27,840
Speaker 9: are purely created, not actual surveys at all.

609
00:35:28,239 --> 00:35:31,359
Speaker 1: Well, and I would say, like, don't trust the outliers, right,

610
00:35:31,440 --> 00:35:34,879
Speaker 1: Like these polls were major outliers and they didn't come

611
00:35:34,920 --> 00:35:38,319
Speaker 1: from reputable polling organizations. The Times didn't use them in

612
00:35:38,360 --> 00:35:43,120
Speaker 1: the aggregate because they didn't answer the questions that made it.

613
00:35:43,560 --> 00:35:47,720
Speaker 1: But I'm wondering, like we have also seen there's another

614
00:35:47,760 --> 00:35:51,400
Speaker 1: thing which is totally different but relevant I think a

615
00:35:51,400 --> 00:35:54,919
Speaker 1: little bit here, which is that surveys. There has been

616
00:35:55,040 --> 00:35:59,040
Speaker 1: also like groups that are more likely to respond to surveyors,

617
00:35:59,680 --> 00:36:03,080
Speaker 1: and they have maybe been driving up the numbers for candidates.

618
00:36:03,080 --> 00:36:04,000
Speaker 1: Can you talk about that.

619
00:36:04,560 --> 00:36:06,879
Speaker 9: Yeah, and then I'll just say before getting into the

620
00:36:06,920 --> 00:36:09,759
Speaker 9: potential bias here at fifty plus one, which is the

621
00:36:09,840 --> 00:36:12,120
Speaker 9: polling website I run with some of my friends and

622
00:36:12,160 --> 00:36:14,800
Speaker 9: we have a sub stack. We also did not aggregate

623
00:36:14,800 --> 00:36:17,920
Speaker 9: any of these surveys from median strategies because we do

624
00:36:18,440 --> 00:36:22,520
Speaker 9: what nobody in like the Twitter aggregator accounts are doing,

625
00:36:22,600 --> 00:36:25,319
Speaker 9: which is actually contacting the polls, asking them questions about

626
00:36:25,320 --> 00:36:28,520
Speaker 9: their methodology. So that's just like you know, table stakes

627
00:36:28,719 --> 00:36:33,279
Speaker 9: if you are doing polling aggregation. And it's important that

628
00:36:33,320 --> 00:36:35,640
Speaker 9: a lot of stuff you see on social media from

629
00:36:35,719 --> 00:36:40,080
Speaker 9: these Twitter accounts that are polling collectors and redistributors and

630
00:36:40,160 --> 00:36:43,799
Speaker 9: maybe not real data in some cases, but also in

631
00:36:43,840 --> 00:36:45,520
Speaker 9: many cases very low quality.

632
00:36:45,239 --> 00:36:47,000
Speaker 8: Data as well. So I just want to take that

633
00:36:47,040 --> 00:36:47,680
Speaker 8: into account.

634
00:36:47,840 --> 00:36:49,600
Speaker 9: Yeah, Yeah, and then the same thing that's been going

635
00:36:49,640 --> 00:36:52,520
Speaker 9: on is people are really hungry for data right now.

636
00:36:52,640 --> 00:36:56,399
Speaker 9: People being I guess the roles on social media. They

637
00:36:56,440 --> 00:36:59,000
Speaker 9: really want to believe the polls the show you know,

638
00:36:59,080 --> 00:37:02,359
Speaker 9: the progressive and the mayoral race really close to Karen

639
00:37:02,400 --> 00:37:07,400
Speaker 9: Bass or in the case of this Wisconsin Democratic primary polling,

640
00:37:07,840 --> 00:37:11,919
Speaker 9: the socialist candidate being ahead by twenty points. So there

641
00:37:12,000 --> 00:37:16,160
Speaker 9: is an audience for those sorts of numbers this polster

642
00:37:16,280 --> 00:37:21,520
Speaker 9: median strategies. Have you believed that their confirmation bias in

643
00:37:21,680 --> 00:37:24,320
Speaker 9: essence is real and now they're calling it a social

644
00:37:24,320 --> 00:37:25,279
Speaker 9: experiment whether or not.

645
00:37:25,320 --> 00:37:27,200
Speaker 8: That's yeah, actually it's true.

646
00:37:27,640 --> 00:37:30,960
Speaker 1: So talk us through this idea of confirm. So there

647
00:37:31,840 --> 00:37:35,120
Speaker 1: is some possibility though that some of these poles are

648
00:37:35,120 --> 00:37:38,520
Speaker 1: being cooked for the progressives because they're more likely to

649
00:37:38,560 --> 00:37:42,320
Speaker 1: respond to pollsters, right, which is sort of the opposite

650
00:37:42,360 --> 00:37:46,240
Speaker 1: of the Trump phenomenon where those people were less likely

651
00:37:46,320 --> 00:37:48,600
Speaker 1: to respond to pollsters. Will you talk us through that.

652
00:37:49,160 --> 00:37:53,600
Speaker 9: Yeah, These are part and parcel of the same underlying phenomena,

653
00:37:53,920 --> 00:37:57,480
Speaker 9: which is that people who are progressive are more likely

654
00:37:57,520 --> 00:38:01,919
Speaker 9: to answer surveys just peer in twenty sixteen, twenty twenty,

655
00:38:01,920 --> 00:38:05,120
Speaker 9: twenty twenty four, people who are more likely to support

656
00:38:05,120 --> 00:38:08,279
Speaker 9: Donald Trump, like even on a probabilistic scale, people who

657
00:38:08,280 --> 00:38:11,080
Speaker 9: are ninety nine percent likely to support Donald Trump versus

658
00:38:11,160 --> 00:38:14,120
Speaker 9: ninety or eighty percent likely, those groups were much less

659
00:38:14,200 --> 00:38:16,640
Speaker 9: likely to take surveys. And on the other end, we

660
00:38:16,719 --> 00:38:21,120
Speaker 9: know even relative to center, you know, centrist Democratic voters

661
00:38:21,360 --> 00:38:25,000
Speaker 9: are more likely to take surveys, especially online. So like

662
00:38:25,160 --> 00:38:28,120
Speaker 9: an example, here is that in the twenty twenty Democratic primary,

663
00:38:28,560 --> 00:38:32,080
Speaker 9: polls that were online really overestimated support for Elizabeth Warren

664
00:38:32,400 --> 00:38:34,440
Speaker 9: because even if you have the right age mix or

665
00:38:34,520 --> 00:38:37,280
Speaker 9: education mix, those people who were responding to online polls

666
00:38:37,560 --> 00:38:40,800
Speaker 9: were just like more progressive. So this is a problem

667
00:38:40,840 --> 00:38:45,799
Speaker 9: in primary polling in particular because the types of partisans

668
00:38:45,800 --> 00:38:48,520
Speaker 9: you're getting are really important for the top line of

669
00:38:48,520 --> 00:38:50,960
Speaker 9: the survey. It really matters that you're getting like the

670
00:38:51,080 --> 00:38:54,480
Speaker 9: right composition of Democratic voters, the right number of progressives

671
00:38:54,480 --> 00:38:57,120
Speaker 9: and moderates or what have you, for the result of

672
00:38:57,120 --> 00:39:00,359
Speaker 9: your survey. And in some cases even having the right

673
00:39:00,400 --> 00:39:04,279
Speaker 9: age mix or whatever doesn't prevent that bias from steeping in.

674
00:39:04,640 --> 00:39:07,319
Speaker 9: And this is why I tell people like not to

675
00:39:07,400 --> 00:39:11,279
Speaker 9: take primary polling so seriously, the average error of a

676
00:39:11,320 --> 00:39:14,920
Speaker 9: primary survey on the margin between the top two candidates

677
00:39:14,920 --> 00:39:16,880
Speaker 9: smallly is like thirteen percentage points.

678
00:39:17,239 --> 00:39:18,720
Speaker 8: You should just expect.

679
00:39:18,320 --> 00:39:21,080
Speaker 9: Them to be to be wrong because this is a

680
00:39:21,120 --> 00:39:23,480
Speaker 9: really hard This is a really hard problem for posters

681
00:39:23,520 --> 00:39:25,399
Speaker 9: to solve. However, and this is just the last thing

682
00:39:25,400 --> 00:39:27,600
Speaker 9: I'll say before you can get a word in edgewise.

683
00:39:27,800 --> 00:39:31,200
Speaker 9: This is not necessarily a problem for general election polls.

684
00:39:31,600 --> 00:39:33,800
Speaker 9: Because in the general election, we know we have a

685
00:39:33,880 --> 00:39:36,399
Speaker 9: much better idea of the number of Democrats or Republicans

686
00:39:36,800 --> 00:39:38,680
Speaker 9: and the electorate than we do in a primary of

687
00:39:38,719 --> 00:39:44,560
Speaker 9: the ideological makeup of each of each party. So the eleven, sorry,

688
00:39:44,560 --> 00:39:47,960
Speaker 9: the thirteen percentage point average bias shrinks down to like

689
00:39:48,280 --> 00:39:52,000
Speaker 9: two points or something, to general election points just much easier.

690
00:39:52,040 --> 00:39:53,880
Speaker 9: St you're looking for a number and you're like, hey,

691
00:39:53,960 --> 00:39:56,520
Speaker 9: are all the polls screwed? That's not right, that's not

692
00:39:56,520 --> 00:39:57,799
Speaker 9: the right way to think about it.

693
00:39:58,120 --> 00:40:01,160
Speaker 1: That's very interesting. I didn't realized that there was such

694
00:40:01,360 --> 00:40:04,160
Speaker 1: there was such a variance between the primary polls and

695
00:40:04,719 --> 00:40:08,040
Speaker 1: the regular election polls. So now let's talk about what

696
00:40:08,120 --> 00:40:11,600
Speaker 1: happened in Florida, because I want I want to talk

697
00:40:11,600 --> 00:40:14,480
Speaker 1: about Florida because I think there were a number of

698
00:40:14,560 --> 00:40:19,399
Speaker 1: things happening there and I think it's pretty interesting. Is

699
00:40:19,480 --> 00:40:22,399
Speaker 1: this is not in my mind, and again you can

700
00:40:22,440 --> 00:40:24,640
Speaker 1: tell me if I'm wrong, but from what I understand

701
00:40:24,760 --> 00:40:30,960
Speaker 1: the numbers, and I'm talking about this Nixon Senate primary,

702
00:40:31,200 --> 00:40:34,720
Speaker 1: so he was not polled, right, there were no polls

703
00:40:34,800 --> 00:40:39,160
Speaker 1: in this primary, which is in itself kind of incredible.

704
00:40:39,239 --> 00:40:42,440
Speaker 9: Right, Yeah, I this was not on my radar. To

705
00:40:42,480 --> 00:40:45,080
Speaker 9: be totally honest with you, this race, I know a

706
00:40:45,080 --> 00:40:47,960
Speaker 9: lot of progressives who were who were paying more attention

707
00:40:48,000 --> 00:40:51,040
Speaker 9: to it. Let me just see, just make sure we

708
00:40:51,080 --> 00:40:52,799
Speaker 9: didn't have any surveys.

709
00:40:52,360 --> 00:40:54,360
Speaker 1: That I've read in the Times. There were no polls,

710
00:40:55,120 --> 00:40:59,120
Speaker 1: but you may have had something. But so Vinman raised

711
00:40:59,239 --> 00:41:03,120
Speaker 1: somewhere in the neighborhood of fourteen, right, which is insane

712
00:41:03,200 --> 00:41:05,600
Speaker 1: if you think about it. He raised fourteen million dollars.

713
00:41:05,640 --> 00:41:09,360
Speaker 1: That wasn't even like an internal or anything. She raised

714
00:41:10,320 --> 00:41:14,360
Speaker 1: I think under a million dollars. From what I understand

715
00:41:14,400 --> 00:41:19,040
Speaker 1: from the top lines, there was two things that happened.

716
00:41:19,520 --> 00:41:22,640
Speaker 1: One was she was able to get black turnout up,

717
00:41:23,160 --> 00:41:26,800
Speaker 1: which in Florida is a real driver. Right. This is

718
00:41:26,920 --> 00:41:30,120
Speaker 1: state that went for Barack. This is his state that

719
00:41:30,880 --> 00:41:33,800
Speaker 1: almost won for Andrew Gillum, Right, Like, this is the state.

720
00:41:33,880 --> 00:41:35,720
Speaker 1: Did it go for Barock, it did go for Brock?

721
00:41:35,800 --> 00:41:36,520
Speaker 1: Did it go yeah?

722
00:41:36,719 --> 00:41:36,919
Speaker 9: Sure?

723
00:41:37,400 --> 00:41:39,239
Speaker 3: Ye two eight.

724
00:41:39,320 --> 00:41:42,120
Speaker 1: So this is state where there are a lot of

725
00:41:42,400 --> 00:41:45,879
Speaker 1: galvanized black voters I think of val Deming's like there

726
00:41:45,920 --> 00:41:49,240
Speaker 1: have been, and she was able to get those voters out.

727
00:41:50,600 --> 00:41:53,080
Speaker 1: That is not necessarily the story of a lot of

728
00:41:53,400 --> 00:41:57,480
Speaker 1: lefty candidates so can you talk us through, right, because

729
00:41:57,520 --> 00:42:00,560
Speaker 1: a lot some lefty candidates don't get black, Like I'm

730
00:42:00,560 --> 00:42:06,600
Speaker 1: thinking of Spinat in New York, that district where he

731
00:42:06,600 --> 00:42:11,240
Speaker 1: he got more working class voters and the more affluent,

732
00:42:11,280 --> 00:42:14,400
Speaker 1: college educated voters went for her and he lost. So

733
00:42:14,520 --> 00:42:16,279
Speaker 1: I just would love you to sort of talk us

734
00:42:16,320 --> 00:42:20,560
Speaker 1: through what her coalition looks like. And also it strikes

735
00:42:20,600 --> 00:42:24,200
Speaker 1: me that the that the primary voting was about roughly

736
00:42:24,239 --> 00:42:27,520
Speaker 1: the same from Democrats to Republicans, but we know Republicans

737
00:42:27,600 --> 00:42:31,480
Speaker 1: way out register Democrats in that state. So is there

738
00:42:31,480 --> 00:42:32,799
Speaker 1: anything we can glean from that?

739
00:42:33,440 --> 00:42:36,960
Speaker 9: Yeah, the total lack of surveys there, I think is

740
00:42:37,120 --> 00:42:41,399
Speaker 9: indicative of where the conventional wisdom is on that Senate race,

741
00:42:41,960 --> 00:42:44,240
Speaker 9: that Ashley Moody is going to have a much better

742
00:42:44,560 --> 00:42:45,480
Speaker 9: chance of winning.

743
00:42:45,600 --> 00:42:47,839
Speaker 8: But as you're pointing out, like there's.

744
00:42:47,680 --> 00:42:51,120
Speaker 9: No survey asking about whether or not Angela Nixon, whether

745
00:42:51,200 --> 00:42:53,239
Speaker 9: or not voters would prefer Angelinos into Moody. So we

746
00:42:53,280 --> 00:42:56,120
Speaker 9: could be, you know, in two weeks from now, once

747
00:42:56,200 --> 00:42:57,880
Speaker 9: there's a real high quality poll in that race, it

748
00:42:57,880 --> 00:43:00,760
Speaker 9: could turn out to be a lot more competitive. Then

749
00:43:00,920 --> 00:43:03,600
Speaker 9: people think maybe another Iowa situation and people did not

750
00:43:03,680 --> 00:43:07,160
Speaker 9: have Iowa, for example, Josh Tierrick, you know, in a

751
00:43:07,200 --> 00:43:10,080
Speaker 9: toss up race for the Senate race there a year ago,

752
00:43:10,320 --> 00:43:15,520
Speaker 9: so there's a potential surprise there, maybe brewing. And I

753
00:43:15,640 --> 00:43:21,880
Speaker 9: think Angela Nixon's victory The Times story on this is

754
00:43:22,640 --> 00:43:26,240
Speaker 9: pretty good. I think her victory being a product of

755
00:43:26,680 --> 00:43:29,239
Speaker 9: what they called good old fashioned organizing.

756
00:43:29,680 --> 00:43:30,600
Speaker 8: That's absolutely right.

757
00:43:30,800 --> 00:43:35,239
Speaker 9: Democrats in let's just face it, Red States, and I'm

758
00:43:35,239 --> 00:43:38,040
Speaker 9: from South Texas, so I really get this have a

759
00:43:38,120 --> 00:43:41,520
Speaker 9: problem relating to a lot of voters on the ground.

760
00:43:41,840 --> 00:43:46,840
Speaker 9: The party brand has been really significantly tarnished over the past.

761
00:43:46,719 --> 00:43:47,840
Speaker 8: Couple of decades.

762
00:43:47,960 --> 00:43:52,360
Speaker 9: It's been it's become associated with sort of left wing

763
00:43:52,760 --> 00:43:58,400
Speaker 9: Brahmin progressivism from the coasts. I would say wrongly, but

764
00:43:58,600 --> 00:44:00,359
Speaker 9: you know, if you're a Fox News viewer, that is

765
00:44:00,480 --> 00:44:01,359
Speaker 9: that is what you view.

766
00:44:01,400 --> 00:44:03,280
Speaker 8: That's just the zecheist about the party.

767
00:44:03,560 --> 00:44:05,640
Speaker 9: And to restore that, whether or not you agree with

768
00:44:05,960 --> 00:44:09,240
Speaker 9: that being fair, to restore that problem. If you're a Democrat,

769
00:44:09,480 --> 00:44:11,400
Speaker 9: you know, to have to fix that problem. To restore

770
00:44:11,400 --> 00:44:14,239
Speaker 9: the image with the average American, it's going to take

771
00:44:14,280 --> 00:44:17,160
Speaker 9: on the ground, the face to face contact, displain to

772
00:44:17,200 --> 00:44:20,839
Speaker 9: people like I'm Democrat. Here's what I'm actually for now.

773
00:44:20,840 --> 00:44:24,360
Speaker 9: In Angela Nixon's case, she actually is pretty close to

774
00:44:24,360 --> 00:44:26,960
Speaker 9: the democratic socialist wing of the party, So she's going

775
00:44:27,040 --> 00:44:31,680
Speaker 9: to have to rely on those foot soldiers in the

776
00:44:31,520 --> 00:44:33,960
Speaker 9: in the in the fight in that governor's race there

777
00:44:34,400 --> 00:44:39,200
Speaker 9: givince people, no, I'm not a crazy communist. I actually

778
00:44:39,280 --> 00:44:41,360
Speaker 9: just want you, like to be able to afford your housing.

779
00:44:41,600 --> 00:44:44,160
Speaker 9: I imagine that's the case she's going to make. And yeah,

780
00:44:44,200 --> 00:44:46,399
Speaker 9: I guess we'll see in a couple of weeks when

781
00:44:46,400 --> 00:44:49,319
Speaker 9: we actually get the first polls of this race where

782
00:44:49,360 --> 00:44:50,160
Speaker 9: people liand.

783
00:44:50,480 --> 00:44:54,560
Speaker 1: Right, and Florida again is a big state. Republicans have

784
00:44:54,600 --> 00:44:58,959
Speaker 1: a huge voter registration advantage the right.

785
00:44:59,120 --> 00:45:02,239
Speaker 9: I mean this, but we have seen some big swings there,

786
00:45:02,239 --> 00:45:04,480
Speaker 9: like there were two special elections in twenty twenty five

787
00:45:04,560 --> 00:45:08,520
Speaker 9: that moved twenty points towards the Democrats, and I my

788
00:45:08,760 --> 00:45:12,319
Speaker 9: sub substack right after looking at youth voter registration in

789
00:45:12,360 --> 00:45:17,279
Speaker 9: particular moving dramatically to the left after Trump's victory, like

790
00:45:17,320 --> 00:45:20,040
Speaker 9: a big reversion among young people there. So you know,

791
00:45:20,120 --> 00:45:22,120
Speaker 9: we never really know, like I wasn't in twelve I

792
00:45:22,120 --> 00:45:25,040
Speaker 9: don't think we were predicting that by twenty twenty Florida

793
00:45:25,040 --> 00:45:27,280
Speaker 9: would be ten points to the right of the country.

794
00:45:27,760 --> 00:45:29,160
Speaker 8: Same thing in two thousand and eight.

795
00:45:29,200 --> 00:45:32,160
Speaker 9: I don't think we were thinking Iowa would move to

796
00:45:32,520 --> 00:45:35,520
Speaker 9: R plus nine after Barack Obama won it twice. So

797
00:45:36,520 --> 00:45:39,120
Speaker 9: the big, big surprises do happen very often in politics.

798
00:45:39,400 --> 00:45:43,839
Speaker 1: The thing that I think is really interesting here when

799
00:45:43,880 --> 00:45:48,040
Speaker 1: we look at Florida too, is that you do have

800
00:45:48,960 --> 00:45:53,040
Speaker 1: red states where like, what's the matter with Kansas? The

801
00:45:53,080 --> 00:45:56,560
Speaker 1: brown back experiment where states get enough of a red

802
00:45:56,600 --> 00:46:00,000
Speaker 1: governor and they decide they want to change. That's awesome.

803
00:46:00,080 --> 00:46:04,560
Speaker 1: So I mean, like Kentucky, Kansas, Like that is not

804
00:46:05,560 --> 00:46:10,040
Speaker 1: so unusual. Now here's a question for you. It does.

805
00:46:10,520 --> 00:46:12,840
Speaker 1: So there's a lot of like, and then we'll stop

806
00:46:12,840 --> 00:46:17,880
Speaker 1: talking about Florida because it's enough. But there's there's conventional

807
00:46:18,000 --> 00:46:23,600
Speaker 1: wisdom that says that Nixon hurts Jolly because Jolly is

808
00:46:23,680 --> 00:46:27,719
Speaker 1: running is a sort of very middle of the road,

809
00:46:27,760 --> 00:46:31,359
Speaker 1: a Republican, and you know he was Republican now he's

810
00:46:31,400 --> 00:46:36,640
Speaker 1: a Democrat, but he's really very centrist. That she and

811
00:46:37,120 --> 00:46:40,160
Speaker 1: Fox News is all over Nixon today, right, Angie Nixon

812
00:46:40,239 --> 00:46:44,279
Speaker 1: there become the Angie Nixon Channel, and their thinking is

813
00:46:44,320 --> 00:46:48,200
Speaker 1: that she's too lefty and that she is like doctor

814
00:46:48,360 --> 00:46:54,359
Speaker 1: l said that she will scare voters. Now she did

815
00:46:54,640 --> 00:46:59,560
Speaker 1: crazy well with black turnout, So in my mind, I

816
00:46:59,719 --> 00:47:03,920
Speaker 1: just wonder does like the conventional wisdom is she hurts jolly,

817
00:47:04,400 --> 00:47:08,080
Speaker 1: But is there a hot take whereby juicing black turnout

818
00:47:08,120 --> 00:47:09,440
Speaker 1: she actually helps Choli.

819
00:47:09,680 --> 00:47:14,040
Speaker 9: I would just say the conventional wisdom about how idiology

820
00:47:14,360 --> 00:47:18,960
Speaker 9: operates on voters, it's just like way overconfident, and people

821
00:47:19,000 --> 00:47:21,920
Speaker 9: assume that progressives do you know, five or ten points

822
00:47:22,040 --> 00:47:26,719
Speaker 9: less than moderates, and this just isn't true. Even if

823
00:47:26,719 --> 00:47:29,680
Speaker 9: you don't believe me, you can just read the academic

824
00:47:29,719 --> 00:47:32,719
Speaker 9: social science on this, or even like the moderates have

825
00:47:32,760 --> 00:47:35,759
Speaker 9: their own estimates of like two or three points if

826
00:47:35,800 --> 00:47:38,000
Speaker 9: you take the most progressive people and compare them to

827
00:47:38,040 --> 00:47:41,600
Speaker 9: the most moderate. So you know, the real benchmark here

828
00:47:42,000 --> 00:47:43,200
Speaker 9: is what.

829
00:47:43,160 --> 00:47:44,200
Speaker 8: Is the national environment.

830
00:47:44,239 --> 00:47:46,960
Speaker 9: I mean, Florida is a state that leans I don't know,

831
00:47:47,000 --> 00:47:48,600
Speaker 9: like ten points to the right.

832
00:47:48,480 --> 00:47:51,080
Speaker 8: In Senate races over the last ten years.

833
00:47:51,120 --> 00:47:54,399
Speaker 9: Well, hey, we're looking at a democratic generic ballot margin

834
00:47:54,440 --> 00:47:57,560
Speaker 9: around plus seven plus eight, So that puts us in

835
00:47:57,600 --> 00:47:59,360
Speaker 9: the territory where it might be a couple points to

836
00:47:59,400 --> 00:48:03,879
Speaker 9: the right and Yeah, to exactly to your point, We've

837
00:48:03,920 --> 00:48:05,960
Speaker 9: been in a turnout contest for the past year and

838
00:48:06,000 --> 00:48:10,240
Speaker 9: a half as well, with Democrats dramatically out voting Republicans.

839
00:48:10,640 --> 00:48:13,320
Speaker 8: And you need a reason to vote.

840
00:48:13,760 --> 00:48:17,040
Speaker 9: As an individual, you can vote because you see Trump

841
00:48:17,120 --> 00:48:20,640
Speaker 9: as a threat to you know, your personal livelihood or

842
00:48:20,719 --> 00:48:21,640
Speaker 9: your prosperity, or.

843
00:48:21,640 --> 00:48:22,280
Speaker 8: To the country.

844
00:48:22,560 --> 00:48:25,959
Speaker 9: You might also vote because you like got contacted by

845
00:48:26,200 --> 00:48:29,719
Speaker 9: a voters campaign and sold a really good message and

846
00:48:29,760 --> 00:48:32,520
Speaker 9: you want to support that person. And I think Canada,

847
00:48:32,600 --> 00:48:35,680
Speaker 9: like Nixon, has potentially both of those going on, So

848
00:48:35,800 --> 00:48:38,320
Speaker 9: I wouldn't be surprised if it gets close enough. And

849
00:48:38,400 --> 00:48:41,560
Speaker 9: to your direct question about maybe split ticket voting here

850
00:48:41,600 --> 00:48:46,279
Speaker 9: in Florida, Yeah, split ticket voting is increasingly rare that

851
00:48:46,320 --> 00:48:49,520
Speaker 9: there are still some some big differences, like in twenty

852
00:48:49,560 --> 00:48:52,080
Speaker 9: twenty four, a lot of voters split their Senate and

853
00:48:52,120 --> 00:48:58,480
Speaker 9: their presidential vote choice. Right, so there's still you know, Arizona, Nevada,

854
00:48:58,880 --> 00:49:01,560
Speaker 9: but they're split ticketing is less common at the governor

855
00:49:01,640 --> 00:49:05,480
Speaker 9: or the Senate level. So I would just say it'd

856
00:49:05,520 --> 00:49:08,800
Speaker 9: be unlikely for there to be a split verdict between

857
00:49:08,800 --> 00:49:09,360
Speaker 9: the contests.

858
00:49:09,440 --> 00:49:11,920
Speaker 1: Would but you could see a world wear black. But yeah,

859
00:49:12,160 --> 00:49:15,279
Speaker 1: definitely moves David Jolly over the finish line in a

860
00:49:15,320 --> 00:49:18,240
Speaker 1: way that it might not have with Vinmin on the ticket.

861
00:49:18,640 --> 00:49:21,120
Speaker 1: I mean, it's impossible to know right now, but it.

862
00:49:21,239 --> 00:49:25,759
Speaker 9: Just yeah, intellectually, the academic literature here says the geological

863
00:49:25,880 --> 00:49:28,840
Speaker 9: extremists and that's for square in scare quots for people

864
00:49:28,840 --> 00:49:33,160
Speaker 9: listening tend to juice turnout for their side, and also

865
00:49:33,640 --> 00:49:37,440
Speaker 9: increased turnout of the opposition. But like I said, these

866
00:49:37,719 --> 00:49:43,120
Speaker 9: differences are increasingly small as we become polarized, and it's

867
00:49:43,160 --> 00:49:46,799
Speaker 9: really less about like what these people idiot ideology is

868
00:49:46,840 --> 00:49:48,480
Speaker 9: because Fox is just going to call every.

869
00:49:48,360 --> 00:49:49,719
Speaker 8: Democrat a communist.

870
00:49:49,840 --> 00:49:51,879
Speaker 9: Yeah, anyway, So I don't know how much that really

871
00:49:51,920 --> 00:49:52,960
Speaker 9: matters at the end of the day.

872
00:49:53,560 --> 00:49:56,920
Speaker 1: One of the things that I'm struck by when we

873
00:49:56,960 --> 00:50:00,120
Speaker 1: look so let's just get to that. I've killed so

874
00:50:00,239 --> 00:50:02,560
Speaker 1: much of our time on Florida. But I want to

875
00:50:02,600 --> 00:50:05,840
Speaker 1: get to the Senate map because it's incredible. So I

876
00:50:06,000 --> 00:50:09,520
Speaker 1: just part of what's happening here on the top line

877
00:50:09,680 --> 00:50:12,359
Speaker 1: is that Donald Trump is the lowest I mean, he's

878
00:50:12,400 --> 00:50:16,440
Speaker 1: at thirty three percent approval rating, and maga is I mean,

879
00:50:16,440 --> 00:50:18,959
Speaker 1: I think that's like I just talked to us about

880
00:50:19,000 --> 00:50:22,640
Speaker 1: the general. The reason this map has so many se

881
00:50:22,840 --> 00:50:25,160
Speaker 1: you know, like seven or eight seats that are really

882
00:50:25,200 --> 00:50:30,120
Speaker 1: in play has to do with Donald Trump's historic unpopularity.

883
00:50:30,200 --> 00:50:35,160
Speaker 1: And then also these numbers in the MAGA world where

884
00:50:35,560 --> 00:50:39,400
Speaker 1: he used to have this like crazy high ninety nine,

885
00:50:39,520 --> 00:50:43,120
Speaker 1: you know, eighty nine percent. Our man is can do

886
00:50:43,200 --> 00:50:45,520
Speaker 1: no wrong, and now it's like in the sixties, right,

887
00:50:45,640 --> 00:50:47,839
Speaker 1: So talk us through that too.

888
00:50:48,360 --> 00:50:52,120
Speaker 9: Yeah, Trump is really fighting, well, Republicans are really fighting

889
00:50:52,160 --> 00:50:55,680
Speaker 9: a two front war for the midterms. First, they're fighting

890
00:50:55,800 --> 00:51:00,800
Speaker 9: against the Independence and the Democrats, who in the Independence

891
00:51:00,880 --> 00:51:02,800
Speaker 9: have really moved to the left. And the case of

892
00:51:02,840 --> 00:51:05,920
Speaker 9: the Democrats are really really fired up. I mean twenty

893
00:51:05,920 --> 00:51:08,239
Speaker 9: percentage points more likely to turn out in some of

894
00:51:08,280 --> 00:51:11,759
Speaker 9: these elections, these special elections than Republicans.

895
00:51:12,120 --> 00:51:13,000
Speaker 8: So that's one front.

896
00:51:13,120 --> 00:51:18,600
Speaker 9: And the second front is Republicans are fighting increasingly low

897
00:51:18,760 --> 00:51:21,919
Speaker 9: enthusiasm on their side and a lot of defection because

898
00:51:21,960 --> 00:51:25,200
Speaker 9: of Trump's policy on inflation. So just to give you

899
00:51:25,239 --> 00:51:29,399
Speaker 9: a sense, there only about seventy five of Trump's twenty

900
00:51:29,480 --> 00:51:32,680
Speaker 9: twenty four voters still approve of his job as president,

901
00:51:33,120 --> 00:51:38,000
Speaker 9: which is just like remarkably low in the modern polarized environment.

902
00:51:38,360 --> 00:51:42,239
Speaker 9: So that means that states that people were writing off

903
00:51:42,280 --> 00:51:44,319
Speaker 9: a year ago. You know your Texas is your iow

904
00:51:44,680 --> 00:51:48,480
Speaker 9: else are close enough, just because of Donald Trump's un

905
00:51:48,520 --> 00:51:53,359
Speaker 9: popularity and his polarizing nature among independents and Democrats, close

906
00:51:53,480 --> 00:51:56,040
Speaker 9: enough that they could be competitive. And then Democrats have

907
00:51:56,080 --> 00:52:01,240
Speaker 9: done an amazing job dominating high quality candidates in these races.

908
00:52:01,400 --> 00:52:04,440
Speaker 9: I'm from Texas. I mean, I'm intimately familiar with James

909
00:52:04,440 --> 00:52:06,239
Speaker 9: Tyreko and some of the people who used to work

910
00:52:06,280 --> 00:52:08,920
Speaker 9: for him, Like we're both from Austin area, so I

911
00:52:09,040 --> 00:52:12,960
Speaker 9: know them. He's a great Texan Canada compared to some

912
00:52:13,000 --> 00:52:15,600
Speaker 9: of the alternatives that could have been nominated, not just

913
00:52:15,680 --> 00:52:18,320
Speaker 9: Jasmine Crockett, some of the others that could have run.

914
00:52:18,719 --> 00:52:19,400
Speaker 8: He'll do great.

915
00:52:19,880 --> 00:52:24,400
Speaker 9: His numbers are pulling dead even with Ken Paxton's or

916
00:52:24,440 --> 00:52:26,480
Speaker 9: slightly ad He's winning independence.

917
00:52:26,480 --> 00:52:28,880
Speaker 8: He's winning suburban voters. That's what you got to do

918
00:52:28,920 --> 00:52:29,080
Speaker 8: in a.

919
00:52:29,120 --> 00:52:33,400
Speaker 9: State that's like mostly the suburbs, mostly Plano Texas, just

920
00:52:33,480 --> 00:52:37,040
Speaker 9: endless flat suburbs, right, So he's got good numbers there. Similarly,

921
00:52:37,400 --> 00:52:42,000
Speaker 9: Mary Poultola just won her primary or the primary in Alaska,

922
00:52:42,160 --> 00:52:43,280
Speaker 9: drawing against Dan Sullivan.

923
00:52:43,320 --> 00:52:44,880
Speaker 8: She's pulling four or five points ahead.

924
00:52:45,360 --> 00:52:48,440
Speaker 9: Just same story across the map Iowa and Ohio as well,

925
00:52:48,960 --> 00:52:52,799
Speaker 9: maybe debatably a good nominee in Troy Jackson. It's kind

926
00:52:52,800 --> 00:52:55,359
Speaker 9: of a weird situation there. And then really the only

927
00:52:55,440 --> 00:52:58,440
Speaker 9: wild card would be Abdullah Lsayed, But frankly, I think

928
00:52:58,440 --> 00:53:01,440
Speaker 9: people have just written him off based on early surveys,

929
00:53:01,800 --> 00:53:04,320
Speaker 9: and he's got three new surveys out just today showing

930
00:53:04,360 --> 00:53:07,839
Speaker 9: him ahead, So maybe people need to update their thinking

931
00:53:07,840 --> 00:53:10,840
Speaker 9: about his campaign as well. So that's it, right, Trump

932
00:53:10,880 --> 00:53:13,200
Speaker 9: on popular good recruits.

933
00:53:13,239 --> 00:53:19,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, good candidates, and again, uh, doctor, I'll say he

934
00:53:19,320 --> 00:53:23,839
Speaker 1: is a very charismatic speaker with a huge army of volunteers,

935
00:53:23,960 --> 00:53:26,800
Speaker 1: so it's not as if he's you know, the problem

936
00:53:26,800 --> 00:53:30,080
Speaker 1: with Haley Stevens is the problem with Vinman, It's the

937
00:53:30,200 --> 00:53:35,200
Speaker 1: problem with Janet Mills. It's these candidates who are, for

938
00:53:35,320 --> 00:53:38,879
Speaker 1: one reason or another a little bit flawed, don't have

939
00:53:38,920 --> 00:53:42,040
Speaker 1: a ground game, and the establishment. You know, it's not

940
00:53:42,120 --> 00:53:45,880
Speaker 1: like the establishment picked Barack Obama for these other candidates.

941
00:53:46,280 --> 00:53:49,160
Speaker 1: And Jesse is telling me we're out of time, but

942
00:53:49,280 --> 00:53:51,120
Speaker 1: I had just so much I wanted to talk to

943
00:53:51,160 --> 00:53:55,640
Speaker 1: you about you. Yes, you must thank you, Thank you.

944
00:53:55,680 --> 00:54:01,040
Speaker 8: Elliott, thanks for having me moment.

945
00:54:02,440 --> 00:54:04,640
Speaker 1: Jesse Cannon Somali.

946
00:54:04,719 --> 00:54:07,680
Speaker 2: The New York Times has this great, great article about

947
00:54:07,680 --> 00:54:11,239
Speaker 2: what happened when Trump fired the Watchdogs and how their

948
00:54:11,280 --> 00:54:15,200
Speaker 2: replacements they have a different agenda than the watchdogs.

949
00:54:15,600 --> 00:54:19,080
Speaker 1: This is really important and again we saw this happening

950
00:54:19,200 --> 00:54:23,480
Speaker 1: in real time. Trump fired those watchdogs because he wanted

951
00:54:23,520 --> 00:54:25,720
Speaker 1: to be able to do whatever the fuck he wanted,

952
00:54:25,800 --> 00:54:28,840
Speaker 1: and he wanted, and he replaced those watchdogs with people

953
00:54:29,480 --> 00:54:32,920
Speaker 1: just like Todd Blanche who served at the pleasure of him.

954
00:54:33,400 --> 00:54:38,320
Speaker 1: So one of these Inspector generals appointed by Trump recently

955
00:54:38,360 --> 00:54:43,279
Speaker 1: singled out Letitia James because she's one of Trump's most

956
00:54:43,280 --> 00:54:48,439
Speaker 1: hated targets. He has a right wing operative, the co

957
00:54:48,520 --> 00:54:51,840
Speaker 1: author of Project twenty twenty five taking over the Inspector

958
00:54:51,960 --> 00:54:56,319
Speaker 1: General's office that would be in charge of internal investigations

959
00:54:56,360 --> 00:55:01,840
Speaker 1: into the Lincoln Memorial reflecting Pool. Remember, the reflecting pool

960
00:55:02,080 --> 00:55:06,120
Speaker 1: is something that Donald Trump used a no bid contract

961
00:55:06,200 --> 00:55:09,280
Speaker 1: to award to a friend. The friend botch the job.

962
00:55:09,800 --> 00:55:13,400
Speaker 1: Then Trump said it was vandals. He also said that

963
00:55:13,640 --> 00:55:19,160
Speaker 1: the grass being messed up after his two hundred and

964
00:55:19,200 --> 00:55:22,520
Speaker 1: fiftieth anniversary thing, that that was vandals. You know, he's

965
00:55:22,520 --> 00:55:25,200
Speaker 1: blaming vandals for a lot of stuff. They tried to

966
00:55:25,280 --> 00:55:29,920
Speaker 1: indict an olympian it was a nobel you know, we

967
00:55:30,040 --> 00:55:36,040
Speaker 1: are really hitting the you know, Trump has put in

968
00:55:36,120 --> 00:55:39,440
Speaker 1: an administration filled with people who will sign off on

969
00:55:39,600 --> 00:55:46,719
Speaker 1: his most craven power grabs instead of protecting the American taxpayer.

970
00:55:46,840 --> 00:55:50,799
Speaker 1: And this is where we are. It's just a complete

971
00:55:50,880 --> 00:55:53,840
Speaker 1: you know, it's all the stuff that people warned about

972
00:55:53,960 --> 00:55:58,360
Speaker 1: in the twenty twenty election and the twenty twenty four election.

973
00:55:59,160 --> 00:56:05,400
Speaker 1: These things things are now happening on the regular. That's

974
00:56:05,560 --> 00:56:11,920
Speaker 1: it for this episode of Fast Politics. Tune in every Monday, Wednesday,

975
00:56:12,160 --> 00:56:16,640
Speaker 1: Thursday and Saturday to hear the best minds and politics

976
00:56:16,719 --> 00:56:21,000
Speaker 1: make sense of all this chaos. If you enjoy this podcast,

977
00:56:21,360 --> 00:56:24,760
Speaker 1: please send it to a friend and keep the conversation going.

978
00:56:25,239 --> 00:56:26,360
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening.