WEBVTT - Bloomberg Daybreak: March 14, 2022 - Hour 1 (Radio) 0:00:02.279 --> 0:00:05.680 Live from the Bloomberg Interactive Brooker Studios. This is Bloomberg 0:00:05.760 --> 0:00:09.640 Daybreak for Monday, March fourteen two. Coming up to sour 0:00:09.880 --> 0:00:13.399 Russia increases its aerial attacks on the western areas closer 0:00:13.440 --> 0:00:15.920 to Ukraine's porter with Poland. The U. S And China 0:00:15.960 --> 0:00:18.560 behold their first high level in person thomps since the 0:00:18.560 --> 0:00:21.520 war began. Of the Wall Street Firm, concerts s and 0:00:21.560 --> 0:00:23.920 p five hundred targets and the beds expected to raise 0:00:24.000 --> 0:00:26.560 interest rates this week. The and YPD is looking for 0:00:26.600 --> 0:00:29.280 a suspect and fatally attack homeless men who are sleeping 0:00:29.320 --> 0:00:32.159 in the streets. Plus, North Korea made teston I CBM 0:00:32.200 --> 0:00:35.520 as soon as this week. I'm Michael Ballad, I'm John Stage. 0:00:35.520 --> 0:00:37.800 Are in sports. Tom Brady's but sirement is over and 0:00:37.800 --> 0:00:40.520 he's back with Sampa Bay. The Yankees made the big trade, 0:00:40.560 --> 0:00:45.519 The Neds beat the Nags. That's all trendy ahead on 0:00:45.600 --> 0:00:48.840 Bloomberg Daybreak on Bloomberg E Live in Freeo, New York, 0:00:48.960 --> 0:00:53.519 Bloomberg one, Washington, d C, Bloomberg one oh six one, Boston, 0:00:53.640 --> 0:00:57.920 Bloomberg nine sixty, San Francisco, Syria's x M one nineteen 0:00:58.080 --> 0:01:01.000 and around the world. On Bloomberg, Radyo dot com and 0:01:01.120 --> 0:01:10.080 via the Bloomberg Business Actor. Good morning, I'm John Tucker 0:01:10.520 --> 0:01:13.760 and I'm Karen. Moscow and futures are higher this morning. 0:01:13.760 --> 0:01:15.440 We're coming up to five o one on Wall Street 0:01:15.480 --> 0:01:17.640 and we checked the markets every fifteen minutes throughout the 0:01:17.640 --> 0:01:20.240 trading day on Bloomberg. Right now is in the futures 0:01:20.240 --> 0:01:23.199 are up twenty seven points down, futures up two hundred 0:01:23.280 --> 0:01:26.120 forty nine and NASDAG future is up forty five. The 0:01:26.200 --> 0:01:29.080 decks in Germany is up two point one percent. Ten 0:01:29.160 --> 0:01:32.200 year treasury down seventeen thirty seconds yield two point oh 0:01:32.200 --> 0:01:34.559 five percent. They yield on the two year one point 0:01:34.640 --> 0:01:37.840 seven eight percent. Nine X screwed oil is down three 0:01:37.959 --> 0:01:40.399 and a half percent, down three dollars cents and a 0:01:40.440 --> 0:01:43.240 hundred five dollars forty four cents of barrel and comexs 0:01:43.280 --> 0:01:46.520 gold is down seven tenths percent, John, Karen, We're going 0:01:46.600 --> 0:01:48.760 to have more on the markets in a minute, but first, 0:01:49.080 --> 0:01:52.120 negotiators from Russia and Ukraine are set to hold more 0:01:52.200 --> 0:01:55.680 talks today after a weekend where Moscow increased its aerial 0:01:55.680 --> 0:02:00.400 attacks on western areas close to Ukraine's border with Poland. Meanwhile, 0:02:00.560 --> 0:02:03.880 US officials say Russia has asked China for military assistance 0:02:03.920 --> 0:02:07.040 for its war in Ukraine. Bloomberg Samy Morris has more 0:02:07.120 --> 0:02:11.680 from our n newsroom in Washington. It appears Vladimir Putin 0:02:11.720 --> 0:02:14.239 has faced more setbacks than he expected in the war 0:02:14.280 --> 0:02:17.480 with Ukraine, when US official tells Bloomberg the request for 0:02:17.560 --> 0:02:20.240 eight from China isn't new, but did not say what 0:02:20.400 --> 0:02:23.640 kind of equipment Moscow is asking for. This. As Pentagon 0:02:23.760 --> 0:02:27.080 spokesman John Kirby tells ABC S this week, the US 0:02:27.200 --> 0:02:29.920 continues to back Ukraine. We're going to continue to flow 0:02:29.960 --> 0:02:32.880 security assistance to them, the kinds of things we know 0:02:32.960 --> 0:02:35.280 they most need, the kinds of things that they're using 0:02:35.360 --> 0:02:37.600 so well, We're going to continue to help get them, 0:02:37.760 --> 0:02:40.959 get them into their hands. Meanwhile, Russia attacked the military 0:02:40.960 --> 0:02:43.919 base that acts as a hub for cooperation between Ukraine 0:02:43.919 --> 0:02:47.280 and NATO countries. That raises the possibility the Alliance could 0:02:47.280 --> 0:02:50.080 be drawn into the fight in Washington. I maybe more 0:02:50.120 --> 0:02:52.520 as Bloomberg daybreak. All right, Amy, thank you, The U 0:02:52.600 --> 0:02:55.160 S and Shina will hole the first high level in 0:02:55.200 --> 0:02:58.480 person talks since Russia's full invasion of Ukraine. We get 0:02:58.480 --> 0:03:01.960 more from Bloomberg Stephen Angle in Hong Kong, the National 0:03:01.960 --> 0:03:05.160 Security Advisor Jake Sullivan will be meeting face to face 0:03:05.240 --> 0:03:08.640 with Young j He is China's top diplomat. He is 0:03:08.720 --> 0:03:12.079 a top ranking official on the Polar Bureau. So they 0:03:12.160 --> 0:03:15.840 are raising, um, you know, the level of contact because 0:03:15.880 --> 0:03:19.280 the White House, while stopping short of, you know, outright 0:03:19.720 --> 0:03:25.840 condemning Beijing's neutral stance, they're trying to court Beijing's efforts 0:03:25.880 --> 0:03:30.480 to you know, wield its influence on Moscow, to a 0:03:31.240 --> 0:03:35.480 enforce the sanctions and as well, of course, ultimately help 0:03:36.120 --> 0:03:40.160 persuade Vladimir Putin to end his war in Ukraine, and 0:03:40.160 --> 0:03:43.480 Bloomberry Stephen Angeles says the meeting will take place in Rome, 0:03:44.040 --> 0:03:48.360 and Russian prosecutors reportedly are threatening US companies such as McDonald's, 0:03:48.400 --> 0:03:52.440 Yum and IBM for criticizing the government or pulling out 0:03:52.440 --> 0:03:55.360 of the country. According to The Wall Street Journal, assets 0:03:55.400 --> 0:03:59.000 could be seized or corporate leaders could be targeted for arrest. 0:03:59.800 --> 0:04:03.400 I Yance Chief Economic Advisor Mohammed Hilarian is saying the 0:04:03.440 --> 0:04:07.840 economic fallout from Russian President Vladimir Putin's full scare invasion 0:04:07.880 --> 0:04:10.720 of Ukraine is likely to include a further pickup in 0:04:10.840 --> 0:04:14.560 US inflation, there will be a putent inflation component. I 0:04:14.760 --> 0:04:18.400 estimate that at seven point nine percent, we will probably 0:04:18.440 --> 0:04:22.440 get very close or about ten percent before we come down, 0:04:22.839 --> 0:04:27.080 and that difference will be all because of the disruption 0:04:27.720 --> 0:04:32.800 that Putin's war imply for commodity prices, supply chains, and shipments. 0:04:33.040 --> 0:04:36.000 Muhammed Hilarian, who is also a Bloomberg contributor, made the 0:04:36.040 --> 0:04:38.680 comments on CBSS Face the Nation, which can be heard 0:04:38.760 --> 0:04:42.000 Sundays on Bloomberg Radio, and inflation is a key reason 0:04:42.040 --> 0:04:45.240 why investors expect the Fed to begin raising interest rates 0:04:45.279 --> 0:04:48.680 this week. Let's get more from Bloomberg's Fanny Down. The 0:04:48.720 --> 0:04:52.160 Fed meets Tuesday and Wednesday, and central bankers I signalville 0:04:52.240 --> 0:04:54.960 lift rates after a big cut to near zero at 0:04:55.000 --> 0:04:58.559 the start of the pandemic in March, Americans are losing 0:04:58.560 --> 0:05:01.640 ground to inflation, and that's putting a big consumer confidence 0:05:01.839 --> 0:05:04.280 lows going back to the financial crisis more than a 0:05:04.360 --> 0:05:08.320 decade ago. Data Tuesday in February, wholesale prices could show 0:05:08.360 --> 0:05:11.520 a year over year gain of ten percent. Three Kink 0:05:11.560 --> 0:05:15.080 reports this week, retail sales and industrial production could point 0:05:15.080 --> 0:05:18.880 to moderating economic growth across the US. Bene jud S 0:05:18.880 --> 0:05:21.640 Bloomberg day Break, Right, Bennie, thank you all. Higher interest 0:05:21.760 --> 0:05:24.640 rates a commodity crunch in the war has won Wall 0:05:24.680 --> 0:05:27.840 Street firm cutting its stock targets once again. We get 0:05:27.839 --> 0:05:30.279 the latest line from Bloomberg's renaed A Young, good morning, 0:05:30.320 --> 0:05:33.600 Ready to good morning, Karen. Goldman Sachs strategists are lowering 0:05:33.640 --> 0:05:36.320 their SNP five hundred target for the second time in 0:05:36.360 --> 0:05:40.599 a month, this time from forty to forty hundred. The 0:05:40.640 --> 0:05:45.000 index closed just above forty two hundred on Friday. Now 0:05:45.000 --> 0:05:48.320 it comes as the global commodity crunch, triggered by Russia's 0:05:48.320 --> 0:05:52.960 invasion of Ukraine, deepens the slump in US stocks last month, 0:05:53.000 --> 0:05:55.600 Goldman cut its initial year in target of fifty one 0:05:56.080 --> 0:05:59.240 points for the SNP five Live in New York. I'm 0:05:59.240 --> 0:06:02.400 gonna need a young Bloomberg Daybreak, thanks for a huge 0:06:02.400 --> 0:06:05.320 sell off over night and tech stocks in Asia. Let's 0:06:05.320 --> 0:06:09.800 get the rica from Bloomberg's Juliet Sally and Singapore. Good morning, Juliet, 0:06:09.960 --> 0:06:11.800 Good morning, John, and Karen. A plunge of as much 0:06:11.800 --> 0:06:13.760 as eight and a half percent in a gauge of 0:06:13.839 --> 0:06:17.719 Chinese tech firms listed in Hong Kong reverberated around the region, 0:06:18.040 --> 0:06:20.520 leaving the ms CI Asia Pacific Index in the red 0:06:20.560 --> 0:06:24.000 for a second session. A COVID lockdown in Shenjen, which 0:06:24.040 --> 0:06:27.680 is a tech hub, added to geopolitical and regulatory risks 0:06:27.800 --> 0:06:31.479 facing the sectum. A Bloomberg Intelligence gauge tracking Macaw gaming 0:06:31.480 --> 0:06:33.920 and casino stocks slumped as much as nine percent to 0:06:34.000 --> 0:06:37.160 a record low as China place the southern city into lockdown, 0:06:37.480 --> 0:06:39.640 and elsewhere. A week again saw the neck two to 0:06:39.800 --> 0:06:43.040 five games, six tenths of one percent in Tokyo in Singapore. 0:06:43.080 --> 0:06:46.240 Juliet Sally Bloomberg Daybreak a right, Juliet, thank you all. 0:06:46.320 --> 0:06:49.440 Bitcoin ether and dodge cooin got a quick boost today 0:06:49.440 --> 0:06:52.320 after Elon Musk tweeted that he owns the digital tokens 0:06:52.360 --> 0:06:55.080 and is not planning to sell Bitcoin, which has fallen 0:06:55.080 --> 0:06:57.919 almost three percent before a Musk tweet right now is 0:06:57.960 --> 0:07:01.960 trading at thirty nine thousand, eighteen dollars. It's up about 0:07:02.040 --> 0:07:05.559 nine tenths per cent again. Futures are higher this morning, 0:07:05.680 --> 0:07:08.480 S ANDP futures up thirty two points to down futures 0:07:08.720 --> 0:07:12.160 up two hundred six and NASDAG futures up sixty six 0:07:12.520 --> 0:07:16.160 and straight ahead, your latest local headlines, plus a check 0:07:16.200 --> 0:07:25.360 of sports, and this is Bloomberg. Thanks Karen. Five Wall 0:07:25.400 --> 0:07:27.720 Street hand time to bring in Michael Barr with more 0:07:27.760 --> 0:07:30.040 on what else is going on in New York Hands 0:07:30.520 --> 0:07:33.240 around the world, John, thank you very much, Sarah Police 0:07:33.280 --> 0:07:35.720 saying they are searching for a man who is believed 0:07:35.760 --> 0:07:38.480 to have attacked multiple people who are sleeping on the 0:07:38.520 --> 0:07:41.720 streets in New York City and Washington, d C, killing 0:07:41.720 --> 0:07:45.400 two of his victims and injuring three others. DC police 0:07:45.440 --> 0:07:47.800 said they are working with the NYPD to find the 0:07:47.840 --> 0:07:49.840 man who fatally shot and stabbed a man in the 0:07:49.920 --> 0:07:53.120 district and then killed another man Saturday. In New York City, 0:07:53.520 --> 0:07:57.239 New York Mayor Eric Adams says a city task force 0:07:57.400 --> 0:08:00.080 would focus on finding homeless people in the subway and 0:08:00.160 --> 0:08:04.040 other locations and urged them to take refuge at city 0:08:04.080 --> 0:08:09.040 owned shelters. We're going to take extra steps to encourage 0:08:09.120 --> 0:08:13.840 individuals to go into the shelters for safety reasons as 0:08:13.880 --> 0:08:18.680 well as the coring whether condition. Mayor Adams says this 0:08:18.760 --> 0:08:21.119 is a clear case of how there are too many 0:08:21.160 --> 0:08:24.800 illegal guns on the streets. New York City police say 0:08:24.840 --> 0:08:28.320 they have identified demand who they say snapped two employees 0:08:28.320 --> 0:08:31.680 of the Museum of Modern Art. Video released by police 0:08:31.720 --> 0:08:34.760 shows a man identified a sixty year old Gary Cobnana 0:08:35.200 --> 0:08:38.520 entering the museum lobby through a revolving door, then climbing 0:08:38.640 --> 0:08:41.960 onto the desk and leaving over it before cornering the 0:08:42.000 --> 0:08:46.400 two employees and stabbing them. Authorities say the employees suffered 0:08:46.440 --> 0:08:50.280 non life threatening injuries. North Korea could reportedly launch an 0:08:50.280 --> 0:08:53.480 i CBM as soon as this week. That's according to 0:08:53.559 --> 0:08:57.240 the onhapp news agency. It would be its most serious 0:08:57.280 --> 0:09:01.040 provocation in five years. New York City Health Commissioner Dave 0:09:01.160 --> 0:09:04.400 Choky is talking about the mental health toll from the 0:09:04.440 --> 0:09:09.000 spread of COVID nineteen. Dr Chatsky says that even members 0:09:09.080 --> 0:09:11.960 of his own families struggled emotionally due to the impact 0:09:12.000 --> 0:09:16.000 from the coronavirus. Many people have not actually been asked about, 0:09:16.440 --> 0:09:19.480 but then when you do, there is this opening up 0:09:19.520 --> 0:09:24.079 that occurs because so many people have felt disconnected in 0:09:24.120 --> 0:09:29.520 some way. Dr Chowsky's plan on stepping down today. Today, 0:09:29.520 --> 0:09:32.480 a ceremony will be held to mark his last day 0:09:32.520 --> 0:09:35.480 as New York City's health commissioner. An Oscar winning actor 0:09:35.520 --> 0:09:38.360 William Hurd. His died at age seventy one. His films 0:09:38.360 --> 0:09:42.120 included Broadcast News and The Big Chill. Herd Son sat 0:09:42.160 --> 0:09:44.520 in a statement that his father died of natural causes. 0:09:44.920 --> 0:09:47.560 Global News twenty four hours a day on air and 0:09:47.760 --> 0:09:51.719 on Bloomberg Quick Tank, powered by more than journalists and 0:09:51.760 --> 0:09:54.720 ninalists more than a hundred twenty countries. Michael Barr and 0:09:54.800 --> 0:10:01.840 this is Bloomberg, John, Michael, thank you very much. Yeah. 0:10:02.080 --> 0:10:04.240 Five vote line of Wall Street Camp. That's time with 0:10:04.280 --> 0:10:07.120 the Blueberg Sports up tape. Good Morning, John Stown Show. 0:10:07.160 --> 0:10:09.520 All right, John, Good morning. That was quick. Tom Brady 0:10:09.559 --> 0:10:13.439 retired on February one, forty days later changed his mind, 0:10:13.480 --> 0:10:15.920 setting a statement that time will come, but it's not now. 0:10:16.000 --> 0:10:18.440 My place is on the field, not in the stands. 0:10:18.440 --> 0:10:21.360 He's forty four, not as if he can't play anymore. 0:10:21.400 --> 0:10:23.400 Just had a terrific season with Tampa Bay. Will now 0:10:23.440 --> 0:10:26.320 play a third season with the Bucks after twenty in 0:10:26.360 --> 0:10:28.680 New England. In Tampa, the Yankees just held their first 0:10:28.679 --> 0:10:31.240 official team workout and then made a trade with the 0:10:31.280 --> 0:10:35.280 Minnesota Twins, sent packing Gary Sanchez, the Yanks starting catchers 0:10:35.320 --> 0:10:38.319 since two thousand seventeen, and g o Or Shella, they're 0:10:38.360 --> 0:10:41.120 starting third baseman. The last three seasons, the Yanks acquired 0:10:41.120 --> 0:10:44.240 a new left side of the infield, veteran third baseman 0:10:44.320 --> 0:10:48.800 Josh Donaldson and shortstop Isaiah Kiner. Fef twenty six year 0:10:48.840 --> 0:10:51.640 old was a Gold Glove winning third baseman with Texas 0:10:51.640 --> 0:10:54.120 and twenty they moved him to shortstop last season. They 0:10:54.120 --> 0:10:57.400 traded him to the Twins on Saturday, and the next day, 0:10:57.440 --> 0:11:00.120 the Twins shipped him to the Yanks. Nets be the 0:11:00.160 --> 0:11:02.959 next one ten one oh seven, Kevin rant scored fifty 0:11:03.040 --> 0:11:06.840 three points. The unvaccinated Kyrie Irving not allowed to play 0:11:06.880 --> 0:11:09.240 home games, but he was at the Barkley Center sitting 0:11:09.280 --> 0:11:12.240 in the stands. That led Kadi to reach out to 0:11:12.280 --> 0:11:14.839 New York City Mayor Eric Adams and I say, Eric, 0:11:14.880 --> 0:11:18.000 you gotta I mean, you gotta figure something out, man, 0:11:18.040 --> 0:11:22.320 because you know it's looking crazy, especially on national TV. 0:11:22.600 --> 0:11:24.920 And we can come to the game and not play 0:11:25.040 --> 0:11:28.760 like come on. And they has said since city workers 0:11:28.800 --> 0:11:31.400 lost their jobs for not getting the vaccine, Irving should 0:11:31.400 --> 0:11:34.360 not get special treatment. Islanders beat the Ducks for three 0:11:34.480 --> 0:11:36.800 n C double A tournament Field announced Ruttors will play 0:11:36.840 --> 0:11:40.480 Notre Dame on Wednesday, Seaton Hall takes on TCU on Friday. 0:11:40.800 --> 0:11:43.760 John Stashward Bloomberg Sports. John all right, John, thanks a lot, 0:11:43.840 --> 0:11:45.640 and ahead of the cashowup a lot of ball Street 0:11:45.640 --> 0:11:48.080 futures in the US. They are higher right now, all 0:11:48.120 --> 0:11:52.360 DEA futures three D twenty four points, the ESSP futures 0:11:52.400 --> 0:11:55.120 up thirty seven and the ADS that he made futures 0:11:55.200 --> 0:11:58.760 right now they are up eighty two points. And you're 0:11:58.800 --> 0:12:10.559 listening to burg Tape break is the cure for higher prices, 0:12:10.840 --> 0:12:13.480 higher prices. Just ahead, we're going to speak with the 0:12:13.559 --> 0:12:18.600 commas Dennis Garthen this bed week. You're listening to Bloomberg 0:12:18.640 --> 0:12:25.040 tay break, markets, headlines and breaking news twenty four hours 0:12:25.040 --> 0:12:28.320 a day at Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Business Outland, 0:12:28.360 --> 0:12:37.440 at Bloomberg Quick Tape. This is a Bloomberg Business lash 0:12:37.880 --> 0:12:40.640 and I'm Karen Moscow. Stocks in Europe are rising along 0:12:40.679 --> 0:12:44.000 with US stock index futures as negotiators from Russia and 0:12:44.160 --> 0:12:47.000 Ukraine prepare for a new route of talks. A global 0:12:47.040 --> 0:12:50.120 bond route deepened with the five year treasury yield cresting 0:12:50.200 --> 0:12:53.480 two for the first time since and we checked the 0:12:53.480 --> 0:12:56.479 markets every fifteen minutes throughout the trading day on Bloomberg 0:12:56.520 --> 0:12:58.800 Right now, S and P futures up thirty two points. 0:12:59.080 --> 0:13:01.880 Now futures have two hundred ninety two and nasdak features 0:13:01.920 --> 0:13:04.640 up sixty three. The decks in Germany's up two and 0:13:04.640 --> 0:13:07.959 a half percent, the ten year treasury down twenty thirty seconds, 0:13:08.120 --> 0:13:10.319 the yel two point out eight percent. They yield on 0:13:10.360 --> 0:13:13.679 the two year one point eight zero percent. Nimex screwed 0:13:13.720 --> 0:13:16.600 oil is down three point eight percent, down four dollars 0:13:16.679 --> 0:13:19.040 sixteen cents at a hundred five dollars sixteen cents of 0:13:19.240 --> 0:13:21.840 Arrol Comic School down eight tenths per cent, or sixteen 0:13:21.840 --> 0:13:25.080 dollars thirty cents at nineteen sixty eight fifty announced. The 0:13:25.160 --> 0:13:27.720 Euro one point oh nine six four against the dollar, 0:13:27.760 --> 0:13:30.320 British pound one point three zero four eight, the ends 0:13:30.320 --> 0:13:34.200 at one seventeen point eight one, and Bitcoin this morning 0:13:34.360 --> 0:13:36.880 is higher, up eight tens of a percent at thirty 0:13:36.960 --> 0:13:41.320 eight thousand, nine hundred fifty dollars. That's a Bloomberg business flash. 0:13:41.320 --> 0:13:43.319 Now here's metel Bar with more on what's going on 0:13:43.480 --> 0:13:46.600 around the world. Muddle, Good morning, Good morning, Karen. Russia's 0:13:46.679 --> 0:13:50.720 military forces are keeping up their campaign to capture Ukraine's capital, 0:13:51.000 --> 0:13:54.200 as residents of other besieged cities hold out hope that 0:13:54.280 --> 0:13:57.640 renewed diplomatic talks might open the way for more civilians 0:13:57.640 --> 0:14:01.079 to evacuate or emergency supply is to reach them. A 0:14:01.200 --> 0:14:03.840 day after expanding the war in Ukraine with an air 0:14:03.920 --> 0:14:06.640 strike on a military base close to the Polish border, 0:14:07.040 --> 0:14:10.240 Russian force has fired artillery on suburbs north and east 0:14:10.240 --> 0:14:14.400 of Keith. NFL superstar Tom Brady announced that his short 0:14:14.440 --> 0:14:18.400 lived retirement is over. Brady posted on Instagram that he 0:14:18.480 --> 0:14:21.200 believes his time isn't over yet on the field and 0:14:21.240 --> 0:14:23.360 he will return for a twenty third season with the 0:14:23.400 --> 0:14:26.680 Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NBA. The Nets beat the 0:14:26.720 --> 0:14:30.520 next Celtics lost in the NHL. The Islanders won global 0:14:30.560 --> 0:14:33.080 news twenty four hours a day on here and on 0:14:33.160 --> 0:14:36.600 Bloomberg quick Take, powered by more than twenty seven hundred 0:14:36.640 --> 0:14:39.520 journalists and then alst to more than a hundred twenty countries. Hi, 0:14:39.640 --> 0:14:42.960 Michael Barr, and this is Bloomberg John Michael, Thank you 0:14:43.080 --> 0:14:45.320 very much, and he is coming up on five twenty 0:14:45.320 --> 0:14:47.520 on Wall Street. We're live on the Bloomberg intraand to 0:14:47.600 --> 0:14:51.720 Broker Studios this is Bloomberg Day Break time to get 0:14:51.760 --> 0:14:54.040 you set up for the trading day. We are joined 0:14:54.040 --> 0:14:58.400 now by economist Dennis Scartman, the University of Akron in Downland, Chair, 0:14:58.800 --> 0:15:03.120 former publisher of the Gartment letter Happy Monday. Dennis. Of course, 0:15:03.160 --> 0:15:06.880 Federals are publicy makers widely expected to raise their benchmark 0:15:06.920 --> 0:15:09.520 cancers rate this week. What's going to be the impact 0:15:09.600 --> 0:15:13.360 for equity investors? Well, I think, first of all, let's 0:15:13.400 --> 0:15:15.320 understand that, yes, the Feed is going to raise the 0:15:15.320 --> 0:15:17.920 overnight fet funds rate by twenty five basis points. Mr 0:15:17.960 --> 0:15:21.360 Powell has made that abundantly clear. There was talk two 0:15:21.400 --> 0:15:23.600 and three weeks ago before Mr Powell made it clear 0:15:23.640 --> 0:15:26.400 that perhaps they had raised it by fifty basis points, 0:15:26.400 --> 0:15:30.200 but now it appears to seven will probably twenty five 0:15:30.200 --> 0:15:33.120 basis points for every meeting this year, and it means 0:15:33.240 --> 0:15:35.680 over time that the yield curve is probably going to 0:15:35.720 --> 0:15:37.880 go to a slight inversion by year end, which would 0:15:37.880 --> 0:15:41.480 be recessionary. On balance, I think that that's detrimental to 0:15:41.560 --> 0:15:44.880 stock prices in the long run. But something that I 0:15:44.920 --> 0:15:47.480 watched on a close basis is the CNN Fair and 0:15:47.560 --> 0:15:50.800 Greed Index, which is a compendium of seven different indicators 0:15:50.800 --> 0:15:54.360 of the internal components of the market, and it goes 0:15:54.440 --> 0:15:57.520 from a hundred to zero. The highest I've ever seen 0:15:57.560 --> 0:16:01.000 it when the market is overbought, as which was in 0:16:01.120 --> 0:16:07.120 the Lady late before the market crashed, and the lowest 0:16:07.120 --> 0:16:09.960 I've seen it was two, which was in March of 0:16:11.000 --> 0:16:16.760 at the height of the of the pandemic concerns or 0:16:16.800 --> 0:16:19.360 the start of the pandemic concerns. And right now we're 0:16:19.400 --> 0:16:23.640 down to eleven. Actually we're turning up from to fourteen. 0:16:23.960 --> 0:16:25.880 When you're down to those levels, when you're down under 0:16:25.880 --> 0:16:29.320 twenty and turn higher. The market has been extremely oversold 0:16:29.320 --> 0:16:31.000 and do for a bounce, and that's what we're getting. 0:16:31.040 --> 0:16:33.600 So I think that the talk this morning of peace 0:16:33.640 --> 0:16:37.560 talks once again is giving way to a bounce in 0:16:37.600 --> 0:16:39.480 the stock market. I don't think it will last very long, 0:16:39.520 --> 0:16:42.680 but we're gonna get it. We need a bounce. It's aggressively, 0:16:42.720 --> 0:16:46.040 egregiously oversold, and the bounce is long overdoing. That's what 0:16:46.120 --> 0:16:50.000 we're getting. Beyond that index, I'm looking at the fear gage, 0:16:50.200 --> 0:16:55.680 the volatility index this morning, thirty eight six. That's elevated, 0:16:55.760 --> 0:16:58.880 but certainly nowhere near the levels that we saw during 0:16:58.880 --> 0:17:02.920 the start of the pandemic. No, it's not near the 0:17:03.680 --> 0:17:06.920 levels that we got in February and March of but 0:17:07.040 --> 0:17:09.240 anytime in my in my book, when you get over 0:17:09.280 --> 0:17:12.639 thirty and turn lower, that's the the The VIX is 0:17:12.720 --> 0:17:15.880 part of the CNN Fair and Greed Index itself, and 0:17:15.920 --> 0:17:19.480 it's I think it's a bit overextended, so a little 0:17:19.520 --> 0:17:21.760 exception at this point. I think at thirty it's it's 0:17:21.760 --> 0:17:24.320 a little high. It can go. We we've seen it 0:17:24.400 --> 0:17:27.679 decide at forty five at times, and that's during periods 0:17:27.720 --> 0:17:31.440 of extreme price movements. One time last week, I think 0:17:31.440 --> 0:17:34.920 you've got its highest thirty six inter day at thirty. 0:17:35.000 --> 0:17:37.399 I think it's a little extended and one of the 0:17:37.400 --> 0:17:39.159 one of the seven component parts of the Fair and 0:17:39.160 --> 0:17:41.800 Greed Index, which is I said, has been down below 0:17:41.840 --> 0:17:43.840 twenty and has turned higher. And when it does that, 0:17:44.280 --> 0:17:46.080 you get a bounce. And that's what we're getting this morning. 0:17:46.320 --> 0:17:49.479 In the commodity space. What is the term structure telling us? 0:17:50.680 --> 0:17:53.320 The term structure has been I think something that you 0:17:53.359 --> 0:17:56.160 need to follow very closely. I started in this bit 0:17:56.600 --> 0:17:58.919 in the early nineteen seventies in the cotton market, and 0:17:58.920 --> 0:18:02.200 I learned to watch how the front month's trade versus 0:18:02.240 --> 0:18:05.280 the back months, whether we're in backwardation or contango. And 0:18:05.320 --> 0:18:07.639 I learned long ago to watch the change in the 0:18:07.680 --> 0:18:10.840 backwardation and watch the change in contango. We would do 0:18:11.480 --> 0:18:13.440 in this run up in the in in crude oil, 0:18:13.480 --> 0:18:15.280 when we got to what a hundred and thirty seven 0:18:15.280 --> 0:18:19.119 dollars a barrel for w T I, the backwardation was 0:18:19.160 --> 0:18:22.679 widening every single day. That would go up more on 0:18:22.600 --> 0:18:24.639 on up days, the front month would lose less. On 0:18:24.720 --> 0:18:27.840 down days, the backwardation would widen. And for a while 0:18:28.000 --> 0:18:31.040 last week it was interesting, as the market was going higher, 0:18:31.080 --> 0:18:35.359 the backwardation began to narrow. That's atypical, that's unusual, and 0:18:35.400 --> 0:18:38.040 that was telling me that that the crude role market 0:18:38.119 --> 0:18:40.879 was making its highs. I think we'll keep what the 0:18:40.880 --> 0:18:42.720 crude roil market is doing. Keep an eye on what 0:18:42.800 --> 0:18:46.159 the backwardation is doing. Uh. In in backward dated markets, 0:18:46.160 --> 0:18:47.960 you don't want to be you don't want to be 0:18:48.119 --> 0:18:50.359 a bear, But certainly when you start to see the 0:18:50.359 --> 0:18:53.600 backwardation begin to narrow, you you lose your impetus of 0:18:53.680 --> 0:18:55.640 being bullis. So keep an eye on the term structure. 0:18:55.640 --> 0:18:58.760 I think in in in all carrying charge markets. Whether 0:18:58.800 --> 0:19:02.160 it's corn, whether it's uh wheat, whether it's soybeans, whether 0:19:02.200 --> 0:19:05.720 it's sugar, whether it's coffee, whether it's cocoa. Importantly, when 0:19:05.720 --> 0:19:08.280 it's crude oil. The change in the in the in 0:19:08.320 --> 0:19:10.359 the nature of the backwardation, the change in the nature 0:19:10.359 --> 0:19:15.760 of the term structure is evidence of informed well hedging 0:19:15.800 --> 0:19:19.399 money inform money wise money and the term structure was 0:19:19.440 --> 0:19:21.800 beginning to turn barish in crude oil last week with 0:19:21.960 --> 0:19:25.400 the idea that the higher prices cure higher prices. Are 0:19:25.400 --> 0:19:28.919 you seeing demand destructure? Good? About twenty seconds. There's no 0:19:29.040 --> 0:19:31.480 question you're seeing demand destruction. People are changing the manner 0:19:31.520 --> 0:19:33.800 which they're driving the bills. People are changing the manner 0:19:33.840 --> 0:19:36.800 which they're eating their houses. All all prices made at 0:19:36.800 --> 0:19:39.040 the margin. When the last two percent of the buyers 0:19:39.080 --> 0:19:41.399 become sellers, markets change. When the last two percent of 0:19:41.480 --> 0:19:45.240 sellers become buyers, markets change. And there's no question at 0:19:45.280 --> 0:19:47.320 the margin, people are changing the manner in which they're 0:19:47.400 --> 0:19:50.080 using energy. So yes, demand destruction is part of the future. 0:19:50.400 --> 0:19:53.800 Oh he's a pleasure, sir. Accountabist Dennis Gartman, the University 0:19:53.840 --> 0:19:57.119 of acron Endowment Chair and former publisher of the Gartman 0:19:57.160 --> 0:20:00.359 Blender Dow futures up two DRED seventy two four and 0:20:00.400 --> 0:20:03.760 SMP futures there are up thirty points. NaN's day futures 0:20:03.760 --> 0:20:08.000 of fifty four at the Bloomberg weather for today should 0:20:08.000 --> 0:20:10.080 be a nice day. Morning clowns give me away the sunshine. 0:20:10.119 --> 0:20:13.119 The high temperature in the mid fifties. Tomorrow is sunny 0:20:13.119 --> 0:20:17.280 and mild by sixty to sixty five Wednesday sunshine, I 0:20:17.400 --> 0:20:24.400 sneer sixty. This is Bloomberg broadcasting live from the Bloomberg 0:20:24.440 --> 0:20:28.920 Interactive Broker Studio in New York. Bloomberg having freed to Washington, 0:20:29.000 --> 0:20:33.120 d C. Bloomberg to Boston, Bloomberg one oh six one, 0:20:33.200 --> 0:20:36.640 does San Francisco, Bloomberg nine sixty to the country Sirius 0:20:36.800 --> 0:20:40.400 XM Gentle one and around the globe the Bloomberg Business 0:20:40.400 --> 0:20:45.480 apt in Bloomberg Radio dot Com. This is Bloomberg Daybreak. 0:20:50.040 --> 0:20:52.200 It's five thirty on Wall Spreet. Good morning, I'm John 0:20:52.240 --> 0:20:55.439 Tucker and I'm Perard Moscow. We're just about four hours 0:20:55.480 --> 0:20:57.520 away from the open of US trading. Let's get you 0:20:57.600 --> 0:20:58.840 up to date in the news. You need to know 0:20:58.920 --> 0:21:00.920 at this hour, do you not? It states plans to 0:21:00.960 --> 0:21:03.800 hold its first high level in person talks with China 0:21:04.119 --> 0:21:07.479 since Russia's invasion of Ukraine began. It comes as the 0:21:07.560 --> 0:21:10.960 US says Russia has asked China for military equipment to 0:21:11.000 --> 0:21:14.919 support its invasion. Bloomberg said, Bachelor has the story. The 0:21:15.000 --> 0:21:18.800 US says nobody should help replace Russian losses during the invasion. 0:21:19.200 --> 0:21:22.720 National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan heads to Rome today for 0:21:22.840 --> 0:21:26.080 high level talks, which China's top foreign policy official, Young 0:21:26.160 --> 0:21:30.880 Jay Sheer. Meanwhile, Russia has shelled a Ukrainian military base 0:21:31.240 --> 0:21:34.680 ten miles away from the border with Poland, and Sullivan 0:21:34.720 --> 0:21:38.959 says if anything lands in Poland, NATO will respond if 0:21:39.000 --> 0:21:41.640 the United States will work with our allies to defend 0:21:41.920 --> 0:21:45.040 every inch of NATO territory, and he used the term 0:21:45.240 --> 0:21:49.480 full force reaction. In San Francisco, I'm at Baxter Bloomberg 0:21:49.520 --> 0:21:53.080 Gay Break Thanks said. Negotiators from Ukraine and Russia are 0:21:53.160 --> 0:21:56.960 set to speak today. Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelenski hopes it 0:21:57.000 --> 0:21:59.919 will lead to a meeting between himself and Russian President 0:22:00.040 --> 0:22:04.240 Ladimir Putin should then, representatives of our countries are holding 0:22:04.280 --> 0:22:07.920 daily talks via video conference. Our delegation has a clear 0:22:07.960 --> 0:22:10.520 task to do everything to arrange the meeting of the presidents. 0:22:10.720 --> 0:22:13.800 The meeting I'm sure people are waiting for. Vladimir Zelenski 0:22:13.880 --> 0:22:17.280 says a path to talks with Putin is difficult but necessary. 0:22:17.640 --> 0:22:20.520 On Wall Street, John higher interest rates. A commodity crunch 0:22:20.560 --> 0:22:23.360 in the war has one firm cutting at stock targets. 0:22:23.520 --> 0:22:25.879 Once again, we get the latest line from Bloomberg's re 0:22:26.000 --> 0:22:28.479