Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News.
Speaker 2: Single best Idea, What a show today with all the
Speaker 2: economic data CPI, retail sales in that and our guests
Speaker 2: rally great to have Dana Telsey with us a Telsey Advisor,
Speaker 2: way too short a visit with her, but important and
Speaker 2: retail sales are a little soggy, particularly the Control group.
Speaker 2: She made very clear that there's a partition in America.
Speaker 2: Luxury's really doing quite well. She's optimistic about a redo
Speaker 2: in China of demand, but away from that, there was
Speaker 2: some sogginess to retail sales. What ad joy to have
Speaker 2: Gena Martin Adams with her courage to be in the market,
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Intelligence and just before her Edyard Denny truly iconic
Speaker 2: Edyard Denny reaffirming SPX fifty four hundred and the idea
Speaker 2: that corporations are moving forward. We certainly saw that within
Speaker 2: the equity markets as well. There was a little bit
Speaker 2: of fed analysis. Paul Donovan outstanding. If you're on LinkedIn,
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Speaker 2: and LinkedIn every day, and if you're on LinkedIn, look
Speaker 2: up Paul Donovan of UBS. He does a great, great
Speaker 2: job bringing the UBS knowledge to LinkedIn. Mister Donovan was
Speaker 2: fired up today about a FED that is not so
Speaker 2: much wrong wrong, wrong, but much more behind behind behind
Speaker 2: here is Donovan of UBS.
Speaker 3: I would be looking to cut rates already because if
Speaker 3: you look at the market based prices, the prices that
Speaker 3: FED policy actually influences. That's in this inflation territory. You
Speaker 3: look at durable goods prices, that's in outright deflation territory.
Speaker 3: Here it does how therapy think that keeping interest rates
Speaker 3: higher for longer is going to bring down owners equivalent
Speaker 3: rent because newslash it isn't it doesn't have any impact
Speaker 3: on owners equivalent rent. It certainly off for the downside
Speaker 3: might actually raise it. And that's where we're finding this
Speaker 3: stickiness in inflation. It's in the made up prices, the
Speaker 3: fantasy prices. Now we saw obviously a big bond market reaction.
Speaker 3: So the last CPI print, the March number, which came
Speaker 3: in stronger than expected. Why did it come in stronger
Speaker 3: than expected because of rents in Detroit. We can't base
Speaker 3: an entire country's monetary policy on whether or not the
Speaker 3: cost of a condominium Michigan is going up or not.
Speaker 2: Paul Dnovan just brilliant there and really you know, always
Speaker 2: always intense, but fired up there on what we need
Speaker 2: to see. June twelfth, at the next FED meeting, we
Speaker 2: looked at equities today and of course we did look
Speaker 2: at Barnes, Matt Michigan of Johnny Hancock. Thank you for attendance.
Speaker 2: Right around the eight thirty report. Ira Jersey of Bloomberg
Speaker 2: Intelligence is just brilliant about the focus on short paper
Speaker 2: he will publish for Bloomberg Intelligence. I think you'll see
Speaker 2: that as we tape this within an hour, that'll be very,
Speaker 2: very important to look at this readjustment equities higher, the
Speaker 2: real yield coming in that's been bracketed. I'm going to
Speaker 2: say two ten to two twenty two, ten to two eighteen,
Speaker 2: and the ten year really breaking down beneath two point
Speaker 2: one zero percent off the set of economic data today.
Speaker 2: Before that, we talked to Megan Graper, she's outstanding at Berkeley's.
Speaker 2: We talked to her about corporate issuance. We talked to
Speaker 2: her about debt markets.
Speaker 1: I think you've got to think about taking chips off
Speaker 1: the table because we don't know what we don't know.
Speaker 1: So the second half of the year, I think presents
Speaker 1: the potential for any number of land mines to start
Speaker 1: rearing their head. And so while you have these optimal
Speaker 1: demand technicals in place, you know, even thinking about your
Speaker 1: twenty twenty five funding needs and pulling those forward. I mean,
Speaker 1: acceleration is now the defining force behind the new issue
Speaker 1: markets and investment grade. And so we're we're seeing volumes
Speaker 1: at forty percent, but it's not precluding borrowers from achieving
Speaker 1: negative new issue concessions versus their existing secondaries. And you're
Speaker 1: seeing over subscriptions that are pretty eye popping, particularly in
Speaker 1: the long end of the curve. So the combination of
Speaker 1: those factors means, you know, double down, continue to pull
Speaker 1: funding forward, and I think you know, avoid the noise
Speaker 1: that might start to creep in and the rate volatility
Speaker 1: we're likely to experience as we move into the second
Speaker 1: half of the year.
Speaker 2: Some people say, what do we follow here? Paul's very
Speaker 2: good about following the CD race. Somebody tweeted in live
Speaker 2: chat on YouTube. They tweeted and they had a five
Speaker 2: point three five percent six months CD, which sounds like
Speaker 2: from another era. Another age is a police to scene
Speaker 2: of the mesa scene I can't remember which era. But
Speaker 2: the answer is in one of the great themes today
Speaker 2: on the show across equities, bonds, currencies, commodities is we're
Speaker 2: back to normal in the bond market, at least in pricing.
Speaker 2: I don't know if our brains are back to normal,
Speaker 2: and that'll certainly be one of our themes into the
Speaker 2: caution that Megan Raper talks about. Into the end of
Speaker 2: two thousand and twenty four, just an except day for
Speaker 2: us on linking in this economics into the markets. As
Speaker 2: we take this record high in the standard and pores
Speaker 2: five hundred, we do a major shout out to the bulls,
Speaker 2: the people that said be in this market. There are
Speaker 2: too many to name. There's been a good set of
Speaker 2: people that have said just participate. I think Brian Belski
Speaker 2: at BMO Capital Markets is one. Ben Ladler way out
Speaker 2: front with e Toro and before that with HSBC. We're
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