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Speaker 1: From Bloomberg News and iHeartRadio. It's the big take. I'm

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Speaker 1: wes Kosova. Today, White leaders around the world are paying

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Speaker 1: close attention to upcoming elections in Turkey. Turkey's president retchev

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Speaker 1: type Erdowan has led the nation for twenty years now,

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Speaker 1: but staggering inflation there and citizens' dissatisfaction with the government's

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Speaker 1: response to devastating earthquakes earlier this year has led to

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Speaker 1: a challenge to his power from an opposition candidate in

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Speaker 1: the country's elections that will be held on May fourteen, and.

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Speaker 2: The criticism from opposition and add On's critics has been

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Speaker 2: that he has used the presidential system to only gain

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Speaker 2: more power to do whatever he wants, and that has

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Speaker 2: come at the expense of Democracylomberg.

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Speaker 1: Reporter Beryl Ackmann in Ankara, Turkey's capital. Beryl and our

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Speaker 1: colleague Sylvia Westall and Mark Champion are following events in Turkey,

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Speaker 1: and they're here to tell us what's happening.

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Speaker 2: It is a very pivotal election for everyone across the

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Speaker 2: nation because on one hand, we have one person in

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Speaker 2: power right now who's been in power for two decades,

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Speaker 2: has ruled the country, which is present rejeb type Ardouon

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Speaker 2: and in the last two decades he has really centralized

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Speaker 2: power and he's become the strong man of the country,

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Speaker 2: micromanaging every single decision ranging from the economy to foreign

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Speaker 2: policy and domestic politics. And on the other hand, we

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Speaker 2: have an opposition that is unified for the first time,

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Speaker 2: made up of six parties across the political spectrum, from

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Speaker 2: both right and left wing parties, and they're criticizing Ardun

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Speaker 2: for diminishing human rights, cracking down on dissidents, really cracking

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Speaker 2: down on the opposition, and centralizing power around himself. So

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Speaker 2: the country is highly polarized in that sense. This election

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Speaker 2: is taking place in the background of one of the

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Speaker 2: worst cost of living crises in the country and the

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Speaker 2: worst under present Ardons twenty years in power. It's also

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Speaker 2: happening after two powerful earthquakes that struck Turkey south eastern February,

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Speaker 2: where the government really came under fire for their ill

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Speaker 2: preparedness against the disaster, which killed over fifty thousand people

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Speaker 2: in Turkey alone. So the election is taking place as

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Speaker 2: the government has taken a lot of heat even from

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Speaker 2: its own traditional water base, and that's why people see

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Speaker 2: it as a turning point that could end the political

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Speaker 2: tenure of a politician that people have been used to,

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Speaker 2: even a generation has grown up with Mark.

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Speaker 1: Beryl talked about these six opposition parties and they're not

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Speaker 1: running independently but are led by one man. Can you

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Speaker 1: tell us about him?

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Speaker 3: He's the leader of the Republican People's Party, which was

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Speaker 3: at a Turks party, the founder of Turkey and his

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Speaker 3: name is Kimal Kilcholu. He's been on the political scene

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Speaker 3: for a long time. It's not his first rodeo in

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Speaker 3: terms of trying to unseat ere One, and he has

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Speaker 3: not been particularly successful in the past. But it's interesting

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Speaker 3: the way that he has really grown into this election campaign.

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Speaker 3: You know, on the one side, you have Eedone who

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Speaker 3: has a very familiar message and vision. He presents himself

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Speaker 3: as this sort of very active force for leader of

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Speaker 3: the nation. You know, last month he was unveiling the

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Speaker 3: fifth generation aircraft, that fighter jet that the Turks are

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Speaker 3: building at the moment, and these are the kinds of

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Speaker 3: things that he presses on and when he goes on

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Speaker 3: the campaign trail, he always talks about these big projects

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Speaker 3: that he's done, you know, roads, bridges, dams, all this

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Speaker 3: kind of stuff. So this is his idea of a

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Speaker 3: modern Turkey. And on the other hand you have Killy Starolo,

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Speaker 3: who's a much softer spoken character. He is very much

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Speaker 3: about saying that, look, it's time for a little less

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Speaker 3: of this, a little less of the grandeur, and to

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Speaker 3: really try and reconcile a nation that's become extremely polarized.

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Speaker 3: A lot of it is about, look, we have to

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Speaker 3: conserve our water supply, the rivers are drying up. We

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Speaker 3: want to sit down, reconcile with the EU, reconcile with

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Speaker 3: our neighbors in the Mediterranean, and try and figure some

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Speaker 3: of this stuff out. Now, how much of that would

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Speaker 3: actually happen is you know, it's an election campaign. But

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Speaker 3: the point is that it's a very different kind of message,

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Speaker 3: and I think that's partly what's really quite interesting about

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Speaker 3: this particular.

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Speaker 1: Election, Sylvia. One other reason why the opposition seems to

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Speaker 1: be resonating is something that Beryl mentioned, which is really

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Speaker 1: high inflation. And everyone has taken an unusual path to

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Speaker 1: fighting inflation, which is the opposite of of what economists

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Speaker 1: usually do when they're trying to help the economy.

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Speaker 4: The way in which the Turkish Central Bank has been

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Speaker 4: operating has been very unusual when you compare it to

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Speaker 4: what happens globally. So normally, when you have high inflation,

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Speaker 4: you would increase rates, but in Turkey it's been the opposite.

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Speaker 4: So he believes if you lower interest rates, you will

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Speaker 4: increase supply, and that goes against general economic theory, and

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Speaker 4: that's why Turkey has had this outlier status and on

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Speaker 4: global central banks. So and he's kept going on despite

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Speaker 4: the fact that economic advisors and the central bank itself

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Speaker 4: there's been internal debate on what should be done next.

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Speaker 4: But because the president of the country is calling for

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Speaker 4: lower rates, that's what's been happening, and we've seen the

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Speaker 4: effects kind of ripple across the Turkish economy with extremely

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Speaker 4: high inflation. Last year it hit eighty five percent and

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Speaker 4: above annually. It's sort of dipped since then, but in general,

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Speaker 4: there's been this rampant inflation and that's been something that's

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Speaker 4: been feeding into voter sentiment ahead of the election.

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Speaker 2: One thing that ad On has been focusing on his growth.

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Speaker 2: He has been fixated on economic growth for a long

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Speaker 2: time and has championed for low borrowing costs as long

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Speaker 2: as he's been in power. President Aardon gained more influence

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Speaker 2: of the economic administration in twenty eighteen when Turkey transitioned

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Speaker 2: to an executive exclusive presidential system, the prime minister seats

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Speaker 2: was abolished and the president acquired executive powers. One of

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Speaker 2: the newly acquired powers was to appoint or sack the

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Speaker 2: central bank governor or the Monetary Policy Committee members anytime

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Speaker 2: he wanted, and this has really raised speculation on the

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Speaker 2: autonomy of the central bank, as the central bank governors

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Speaker 2: who clashed with Ardwon on monetary policy. When the central

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Speaker 2: bank wanted to raise rates, for example, and Ardon disagreed,

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Speaker 2: they were fired with midnight presidential decrees, and three central

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Speaker 2: bank governors in about three years were fired, which has

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Speaker 2: really raised speculation on how independent the central bank has

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Speaker 2: been functioning, especially in controlling inflation, because they've been facing

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Speaker 2: heavy political pressure from Ardoon and with elections approaching. The

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Speaker 2: present has really focused on cheap lending, especially to sectors

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Speaker 2: he favors in his Turkey economy model, including exports and

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Speaker 2: investment oriented businesses. And the thinking is that if you

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Speaker 2: have low borrowing costs, you'll increase investment. You'll attract investments,

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Speaker 2: which thereby will increase production, increase employment and really benefit

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Speaker 2: the whole nation. But his thinking has really yet to

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Speaker 2: be validated in real time experience in Turkey. Exports are

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Speaker 2: not doing well. They've been dampened, and Turkey is really

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Speaker 2: heavily dependent on energy imports, which has taken a huge

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Speaker 2: toll on its current account balance and the deficit has

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Speaker 2: been deep in red. This so called thinking has been

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Speaker 2: failing on a lot of parts, and especially with households

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Speaker 2: as well. They're purchasing powers of citizens have eroded, and

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Speaker 2: many people think that despite official inflation now you know,

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Speaker 2: dipping under fifty percent, that what they face in their

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Speaker 2: homes and in their wallets is still much higher than that.

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Speaker 1: Edwin has a very large following and a large base

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Speaker 1: of support. Who are his supporters and what is it

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Speaker 1: about him that they find appealing after twenty years?

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Speaker 2: Arden is this fiery, charismatic strong man and he has

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Speaker 2: really flexed Turkey's muscles as this regional power and raising

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Speaker 2: really ambitions to become a global player. Now that we're

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Speaker 2: seeing him placing Turkey as a media in the Russia's

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Speaker 2: war on Ukraine. He's taken the central stage with Sweden

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Speaker 2: and Filman's NATO bids. He's raised Turkey to the global

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Speaker 2: stage and really has been ambitious and foreign policy. His

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Speaker 2: waters traditionally have been the religious conservative base. When Adon

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Speaker 2: first came into power, one of his main campaign points

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Speaker 2: was that the country's conservative communities were repressed before through

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Speaker 2: particularist leftist policies, so he really played on that. But

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Speaker 2: in recent years we've also seen him allying with the

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Speaker 2: Nationalist Movement Party and really tried to appeal to the

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Speaker 2: national sentiment national List voters as well. We've seen him

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Speaker 2: both in this election campaign and in previous ones targeting

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Speaker 2: the oppositions unofficial or informal alliance or support to the

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Speaker 2: country's pro Kurdish parties and the pro Kurdish block, and

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Speaker 2: he has really spoken out against Turkey's traditional Western allies

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Speaker 2: like the US and the EU, so those all have

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Speaker 2: had appeal to the nationalists and the conservative water base,

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Speaker 2: and that just is in full contrast to the opposition's

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Speaker 2: presidential contender, Clisch Starolo was very soft spoken and a

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Speaker 2: lot of people at least in his traditional water base

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Speaker 2: really seemed to like that. Churisman him being able to

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Speaker 2: stand up to the traditionally big global powers like the US.

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Speaker 3: There is a long arc to Eron's role in the world.

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Speaker 3: And I recall meeting him back just after his Party

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Speaker 3: of One election, and he was extremely cautious. He was

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Speaker 3: extremely courteous, and he was very very careful not to

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Speaker 3: do or say anything that would make him appear extreme

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Speaker 3: in any sense. And they were really, you know, he

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Speaker 3: was really trying to get the West to accept him.

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Speaker 3: And then, you know, I met him several times over

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Speaker 3: the following years, think three or four times between then

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Speaker 3: and around twenty eleven, and you could see him all

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Speaker 3: the time becoming much more confident and eventually really reveling

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Speaker 3: in upsetting the US in particular Europe. His found this

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Speaker 3: to be domestically very fruitful in terms of Voto support.

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Speaker 3: Turkey is in general not a very pro American country

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Speaker 3: in particular, and that has really played out Beryl.

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Speaker 1: As Mark mentioned in the beginning, Eerdowan was very accommodating

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Speaker 1: and even somewhat timid. Now no one would call him that,

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Speaker 1: And in fact, over the years he's greatly consolidated his

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Speaker 1: power by changing the structure of Turkey's government. Can you

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Speaker 1: describe that? Yes?

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Speaker 2: So when Ardon was elected, he started his national political

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Speaker 2: career as a prime minister in two thousand and two,

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Speaker 2: and at the time, the presidential role was ceremonial and

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Speaker 2: this was how it was until twenty seventeen when Adon

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Speaker 2: decided to hold a refound him to transition Turkey from

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Speaker 2: a prime minister or parliamentary system to an exclusive presidential

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Speaker 2: system where the prime ministerial role would be abolished. So

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Speaker 2: when he acquired these new powers, I think Aardon felt

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Speaker 2: that he based his power on the people, saying that

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Speaker 2: he was elected by the people and it really gave

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Speaker 2: him this power to change anything he wants and do legislation.

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Speaker 2: And when he transitioned Turkey to the system he had

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Speaker 2: actually appointed to the US as an example of how

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Speaker 2: well things work. But there's a much better division of

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Speaker 2: legislative and executive powers in the US than there's in Turkey,

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Speaker 2: and the criticism from opposition and add On's critics has

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Speaker 2: been that he has used the presidential system to only

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Speaker 2: gain more power to do whatever he wants, and that

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Speaker 2: has come at the expense of democracy.

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Speaker 1: After the break, how Aredowan made Turkey and himself a

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Speaker 1: force to be reckoned with in global politics.

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Speaker 3: And a state of emotion agency has been declared overnight

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Speaker 3: in Turkey following a powerful earthquake which has hit a

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Speaker 3: wide area in the southeast of the country.

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Speaker 4: In Syria, seven point eight magnitude quake hit early this morning,

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Speaker 4: toppling buildings and triggering a search for survivors.

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Speaker 1: Mark Another big issue in this race is something that

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Speaker 1: Beryl mentioned earlier, which is discontent about the government's response

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Speaker 1: after the devastating earthquakes earlier this year.

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Speaker 3: Yes, this is a particular problem for ed One in

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Speaker 3: many ways this election. If you go back to when

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Speaker 3: ed One and his party first came to power, the

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Speaker 3: AKP back then, it's twenty years ago now, But what

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Speaker 3: they really pitched themselves as was a straight shooting, relatively

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Speaker 3: honest party that was actually going to get things done,

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Speaker 3: that it was effective, it was efficient, and they talked,

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Speaker 3: amongst other things about earthquakes, because this is a perennial

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Speaker 3: issue in Turkey. There had been a big earthquake shortly

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Speaker 3: before in ninety nine, and here you are twenty years

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Speaker 3: later and there is a big earthquake out in the

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Speaker 3: east and tens of thousand of people die, and it

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Speaker 3: becomes clear that the building regulations have not improved at all.

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Speaker 3: And it becomes clear that relatively new buildings as well

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Speaker 3: as older ones that were built, you know, before they

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Speaker 3: came to power, were just collapsing like pancakes because they

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Speaker 3: used all kinds of improper materials. There were systems by

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Speaker 3: which people could get proval by paying a fee. So

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Speaker 3: it really has sort of taken the emperor's clothes off

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Speaker 3: in terms of that claim of being straight shooting efficient

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Speaker 3: and all that sort of stuff, and it's left the

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Speaker 3: area open for the opposition to say they can't do this,

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Speaker 3: we can't and you just put this together with the

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Speaker 3: inflation and so on, and there is a sense that

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Speaker 3: that sort of veneer of competence that for a long

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Speaker 3: time was actually that the AKP was able to deliver

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Speaker 3: on early in their rule, that that has really sort

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Speaker 3: of shredded away.

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Speaker 2: I do agree with you, Mark, but I also think

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Speaker 2: that some people are even in the earthquake zone, are

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Speaker 2: confused by a six party opposition alliance because Turkey politically

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Speaker 2: has suffered a lot, especially older generations, from coalition governments

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Speaker 2: that collapsed quickly and left the country economically much more

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Speaker 2: vulnerable than it is now. So there's definitely I think

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Speaker 2: a trauma a generational trauma from the past.

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Speaker 1: Sylvia Barrel makes a really good point which is part

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Speaker 1: of Aerdine's appeal and really part of Turkey's influence is

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Speaker 1: its important place in the larger global order. It's a

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Speaker 1: member of NATO and yet it often pivots between East

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Speaker 1: and West, and that gives it outsized influence. Can you

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Speaker 1: talk about why someone, say, sitting in Los Angeles should

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Speaker 1: really be watching this election.

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Speaker 4: There's a generation that grew up with Erduan, right, they

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Speaker 4: don't really know anything different. And I think also that's

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Speaker 4: in terms of foreign policy. So there's lots that we

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Speaker 4: know about Turkey's foreign polancy through the lens of this man,

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Speaker 4: and it's quite difficult to imagine what it would look

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Speaker 4: like without him being there. So I think that's sort

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Speaker 4: of the way I've looked at that. And when I

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Speaker 4: think about our coverage, every time there's a global story

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Speaker 4: or something happening regionally, Turkey's usually there, and it's usually

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Speaker 4: Erduan himself. He's here, there and everywhere, whether it's involvement

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Speaker 4: in the Nordic bids for NATO, which he kept the

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Speaker 4: world guessing, in the world waiting on how Turkey would

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Speaker 4: vote on that, and everyone was sort of watching what

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Speaker 4: Turkey would do in order for them to be able

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Speaker 4: to enter NATO. So one element where Erduwan has been

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Speaker 4: very involved internationally is in the Grain deal, and this

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Speaker 4: deal that involves the UN, Turkey, Russia, and Ukraine in

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Speaker 4: order to get Ukrainian grain shipments into global markets, and

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Speaker 4: it requires all of them to be on board. And

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Speaker 4: Turkey's been a mediator in this because it's trusted by

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Speaker 4: all sides, and Urduin himself has an important line to

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Speaker 4: Russia's President Vladimir Putin, and I think when Turkey first

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Speaker 4: talked about how it could help in this scenario and

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Speaker 4: be a mediator internationally, he wasn't taken that seriously, and

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Speaker 4: then he actually did play an important role. Right now,

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Speaker 4: we have the Turkish election coming up on May fourteenth.

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Speaker 4: The grain deals set to expire on May eighteenth, so

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Speaker 4: right after the first round, so there is the question

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Speaker 4: of how what happens that election could affect this big

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Speaker 4: international deal that affects global markets, and at the center

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Speaker 4: of that there is this man, so he's there as well.

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Speaker 4: He's also then when we talk about Syria, there's been

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Speaker 4: a growing understanding or there's been reporting that Turkey is

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Speaker 4: expected to embrace President Assad to bring Acid back into

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Speaker 4: the regional fold, which is something that the US does

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Speaker 4: not want. And again, at the middle of this is

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Speaker 4: Turkey and Dawan and what he wants to do very pragmatic.

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Speaker 4: So he's been pragmatic in his foreign policy too. In

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Speaker 4: this position where Turkey is between East and West, He's

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Speaker 4: made friends with old foes, whether that's in the Gulf,

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Speaker 4: whether that's looking to Assad, and has looked at how

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Speaker 4: Turkey can benefit from that. So I think when we

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Speaker 4: look at Turkey, we look at how it's involved in

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Speaker 4: many of these big international questions, in these deals, in

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Speaker 4: these negotiations, and at the center of it is this man.

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Speaker 1: How Turkey strikes a delicate balance between Washington and Moscow.

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Speaker 1: When we come back Sylviia. Despite Turkey's partnerships with the West,

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Speaker 1: Aredwan's relationship with the US and Europe has sometimes been

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Speaker 1: a bit tense. Why is that.

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Speaker 4: I think that in one way, it's like many countries

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Speaker 4: in the Middle East, and that they are kind of

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Speaker 4: in the middle. They know that in terms of power,

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Speaker 4: they're not going to be like one of the big

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Speaker 4: Security Council powers that they can wield this real influence

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Speaker 4: at that level, so they look at how they need

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Speaker 4: to balance different powers interests with them. So for Turkey,

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Speaker 4: you've got Russia, which has supplied an important political link.

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Speaker 4: It's also been an economic lifeline. Russia is providing fuel

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Speaker 4: for a Turkish nuclear plant. There was a ceremony last

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Speaker 4: week to load Russian fuel into this Turkish reactor.

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Speaker 3: So they are.

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Speaker 4: Important economic ties there. But also it also wants to

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Speaker 4: have relations with the West, so I think at times

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Speaker 4: it has to balance this over and that also comes

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Speaker 4: with things like weaponry with air defenses that it's obtained

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Speaker 4: from Russia and air defenses and equipment that it wants

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Speaker 4: to obtain from the US. It has to kind of

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Speaker 4: balance these different needs for its defense needs. So like

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Speaker 4: many countries in the region, it's sort of looking at

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Speaker 4: how it has to position itself as a medium power. Right,

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Speaker 4: it's not a big power, it's not a small country.

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Speaker 4: It's in the middle. And being in the middle requires

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Speaker 4: moving between different countries and trying not to take sides

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Speaker 4: and then actually making up with countries that you didn't

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Speaker 4: always get on with, and that will annoy and I

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Speaker 4: think the way in which you know, I look at

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Speaker 4: the region, is that the US right now under President

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Speaker 4: Joe Biden, has very much looked at foreign policy in

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Speaker 4: terms of values and looking at things in terms of

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Speaker 4: black and white. You're with US or against US on

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Speaker 4: things like Russia's invasion of Ukraine. If you support Russia

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Speaker 4: or have ties to Russia, you are against the US

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Speaker 4: and you are against Ukraine. But countries like Turkey would

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Speaker 4: argue that foreign policy isn't about black and white. It's

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Speaker 4: about shades of gray. And there are times in which

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Speaker 4: it makes sense to cooperate with Russia and to keep

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Speaker 4: the door open. Other times it doesn't. So of course,

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Speaker 4: you know, there is questions about sanctions, of violation, the

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Speaker 4: flow of money from Russia, all these different perspectives. But

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Speaker 4: like other countries in the region, the ones it doesn't

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Speaker 4: always see eye to eye on in the Middle East,

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Speaker 4: it actually would agree that you can't really see policy

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Speaker 4: in terms of with US without US black and white.

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Speaker 4: Those kind of arguments that these Middle countries are making

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Speaker 4: resonate quite strongly across other countries in the region.

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Speaker 1: So barrel the mechanics of the race. The election is

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Speaker 1: held on May fourteenth, and then what happens.

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Speaker 2: On May fourteen, Turks will wake up and go to

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Speaker 2: the ballots to vote both for political parties they want

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Speaker 2: to be represented in the parliament as well as a

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Speaker 2: presidential candidate. Now, there might be a run off on

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Speaker 2: the presidential candidate two weeks after the May fourteen vote

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Speaker 2: if the presidential candidate is not able to get over

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Speaker 2: fifty percent of the votes in the first round, and

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Speaker 2: once that election is concluded on May twenty eighth, if

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Speaker 2: it does take place, then Turkey will determine its new president.

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Speaker 3: So one reason why this election really resonates is that

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Speaker 3: is just the date. In twenty twenty three, this is

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Speaker 3: the one hundredth anniversary of the republic that founded. The

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Speaker 3: date is not a coincidence. Ed On has been working

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Speaker 3: towards this with a view to kind of refounding the Republic.

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Speaker 3: At a Turk was really secularized Turkey and there was

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Speaker 3: a whole mythology around it and him as the founder,

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Speaker 3: and ed One has made it very clear he wants

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Speaker 3: to kind of refound the Republic with a different kind

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Speaker 3: of ethos and really in his own image. And this

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Speaker 3: is something that the opposition is trying to work against

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Speaker 3: and to say there's a different vision that you can

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Speaker 3: have for the next one hundred years of the Republic,

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Speaker 3: and it doesn't have to be aired.

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Speaker 1: One's Beryl Sylvia Mark. Thanks so much for coming on

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Speaker 1: the show. Thank you, thanks for listening to us here

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Speaker 1: at The Big Take. It's a daily podcast from Bloomberg

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