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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at

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Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Applecarckley and Android Auto

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Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you

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Speaker 1: get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Live in Washington as always on Bloomberg TV and Radio.

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Speaker 2: And good to have you along as we consider now

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Speaker 2: day sixteen of a government shutdown that does not show

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Speaker 2: signs of stopping, and of course that's been the headline

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Speaker 2: since this all started. But God forbid there be a

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Speaker 2: glimmer of hope. It does seem like we could have

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Speaker 2: fast forward into this moment as the Senate majority of

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Speaker 2: Leader goes on of all networks MSNBC to make a

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Speaker 2: guarantee that Democrats will get a vote on Obamacare subsidies.

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Speaker 2: We had spoken repeatedly with Democratic lawmakers to see if

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Speaker 2: that promise of an up or down vote would be

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Speaker 2: enough to get them to sign on to a continuing

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Speaker 2: resolution that would reopen the government. Some said yes, maybe,

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Speaker 2: depends what form. What are we hearing, And of course

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Speaker 2: John Thune says, well, that has been the offer at

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Speaker 2: least quietly all along. He said it out loud this

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Speaker 2: morning on MSNBC.

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Speaker 3: Listen.

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Speaker 4: I've told him, I said, and I said, we are

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Speaker 4: willing to have a conversation. I said, if you need

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Speaker 4: a vote, we can. We can guarantee you get a

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Speaker 4: vote by a date certain at some point Democrats have

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Speaker 4: to take yes for an answer, but I agree totally.

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Speaker 4: We are all about getting health insurance down, making it

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Speaker 4: affordable to more people.

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Speaker 5: So I hear you saying about the program that needs reforms.

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Speaker 5: It sounds like you're guaranteeing that there will be a

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Speaker 5: negotiation on this.

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Speaker 4: Well, what I'm saying is there is a there's a

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Speaker 4: path forward. I believe, yes, what it has to but

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Speaker 4: it has to include it has to include reforms. And

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Speaker 4: you know, can I guarantee an outcome?

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Speaker 6: No?

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Speaker 2: I cannot guarantee an outcome, but can apparently guarantee a vote.

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Speaker 2: Does this start to grease the skids turn the gears?

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Speaker 2: Maybe not, But we do check in with Jack Fitzpatrick.

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Speaker 2: He's talking to lawmakers first hand and brings us the

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Speaker 2: latest now from Capitol Hill, Bloomberg Government Congress Reporter. Jack,

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Speaker 2: I know you've probably heard this before, but for some folks,

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Speaker 2: it's new and it might be reassuring to Democrats. Does

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Speaker 2: John Thune's posture help the standoff, Well, that's.

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Speaker 3: The right question.

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Speaker 7: It's a matter of John Thune's posture and the specific

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Speaker 7: wording he's using. We had not heard from the Majority

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Speaker 7: leader out loud on TV saying yes, he can guarantee

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Speaker 7: a vote in the future. That is not enough for

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Speaker 7: a lot of Democrats. That doesn't meet the standards set

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Speaker 7: by Hakeem Jeffries. Even generally, it doesn't sound like that's

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Speaker 7: enough to move us towards an end to the shutdown.

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Speaker 7: But it does represent a bit of a change, at

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Speaker 7: least in rhetoric, at least in what Republicans feel they

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Speaker 7: need to make sure they're saying. Clearly, it looks like

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Speaker 7: there's a big gap still between what Republicans want and

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Speaker 7: what Democrats are trying to get out of them. But

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Speaker 7: if you're looking for some tea leaves, if you're looking

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Speaker 7: for a little bit of movement to see if one

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Speaker 7: side has the momentum over the other, it certainly is

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Speaker 7: notable to see the Republican majority leader say he's comfortable

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Speaker 7: saying there absolutely could be a vote on this policy

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Speaker 7: demand that Democrats are making, even though he wants it

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Speaker 7: to be separate from a vote to end the shutdown.

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Speaker 3: Got it. In the meantime, we're going to do daily

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Speaker 3: voting on the Republican c R. Jack.

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Speaker 2: I presume that's been the strategy essentially each day, working

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Speaker 2: day that John Thune has had the membership here. And

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Speaker 2: I ask you that knowing that the President has covered

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Speaker 2: a number of paychecks for active duty military, for federal

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Speaker 2: law enforcement, and they've also helped to reinforce funding for

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Speaker 2: the WICK program, causing a lot of people to say, hey,

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Speaker 2: then there's clearly no inflection point that's going to get

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Speaker 2: everyone to the table. And we could have a record

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Speaker 2: setter here, But the President has only covered one pay

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Speaker 2: cycle for military paychecks. Do you know for starters that

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Speaker 2: that money will be delivered? And is there a plan

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Speaker 2: for what happens in two weeks?

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Speaker 7: The wording from the White House in the immediate term

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Speaker 7: is so clear that regardless of whatever legal questions about it,

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Speaker 7: it does seem that this paycheck is being covered. But

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Speaker 7: you're very right to ask about the next paycheck because

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Speaker 7: both sides have been digging in in preparation for a

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Speaker 7: long shutdown, and two weeks from now it may not

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Speaker 7: be over. And the announcements from the White House and

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Speaker 7: what we've seen from the Trump administration broadly on making

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Speaker 7: sure troops are being paid does not necessarily cover that.

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Speaker 7: So there may be a whole new round of logistical

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Speaker 7: and legal questions about how they can move money around.

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Speaker 7: I'm not sure there's going to be somebody filing a

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Speaker 7: lawsuit saying don't pay the troops.

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Speaker 3: I'm not sure this is going to go to the courts.

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Speaker 7: So there is layer upon layer of abstraction here that

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Speaker 7: makes it difficult to predict. But you're right that this

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Speaker 7: shutdown could go for another two weeks, and that raises

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Speaker 7: the question of troop pay all over again.

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Speaker 2: YEA, Now do you say two weeks because of open

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Speaker 2: enrollment on the first of November? Is that the next

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Speaker 2: sort of stop on the calendar that might force a conversation.

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Speaker 7: The fact that it aligned roughly with another round of

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Speaker 7: questions about troop pay is kind of convenient or inconvenient,

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Speaker 7: depending on your perspective. But yes, Democrats are really focused

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Speaker 7: on November first, and the lead up to November first.

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Speaker 7: Open enrollment is November first, the expectation of letters from

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Speaker 7: health insurance companies that could warrant of increased premiums next

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Speaker 7: year is another political pressure point. So as we at

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Speaker 7: least get closer to November first, that really is the

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Speaker 7: key to the democratic strategy. And when you hear members

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Speaker 7: talk this much about November first, it is clear they

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Speaker 7: are preparing for a shutdown that could go in excess

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Speaker 7: of a month.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, sure sounds like it. Batten down the hatches was

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Speaker 2: the word from russ vote. So, you know, give us

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Speaker 2: a taste of the culture, Jackie, you're up there.

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Speaker 3: What's going on?

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Speaker 2: Are lawmakers hanging around their offices? Are they all at

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Speaker 2: bull feathers drinking beers?

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Speaker 3: Like what do you do?

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Speaker 2: And it's weeks on end of a shutdown with with

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Speaker 2: no off rampant site.

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Speaker 7: You know, it's very different in the House and Senate obviously,

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Speaker 7: and the Senate they're voting over and over again. It's

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Speaker 7: groundhog day. They do have to make it to votes.

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Speaker 7: They have to make it through scrums of reporters who

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Speaker 7: are asking if there's any change in their position. It

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Speaker 7: is quite repetitive because this is ten votes now that

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Speaker 7: are failed on the Republican cr I think we're at

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Speaker 7: seven that failed on the Democratic measure. It's very repetitive,

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Speaker 7: not a lot of progress. And then in the House

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Speaker 7: you have Democrats making a point to be here saying

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Speaker 7: we're ready to work, but very very quiet, almost eerily

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Speaker 7: quiet in the House overall, compared to pass shutdowns, this

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Speaker 7: is a strangely repetitive but quiet one in which there

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Speaker 7: really are not significant negotiations in back room horse trading

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Speaker 7: going on.

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Speaker 2: Does Speaker Johnson keep everybody out then until further notice?

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Speaker 3: Will they be back next week?

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Speaker 7: He seems determined to keep them out until the shutdown

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Speaker 7: is over. That's what he said over and over again.

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Speaker 7: Clearly Democrats think that is a pressure point. When you

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Speaker 7: see the focus on Representative elect Atalita Grihalva, who has

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Speaker 7: still not been sworn in the accusations that Johnson is

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Speaker 7: doing this to hold up progress on the measure to

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Speaker 7: require the release of Jeffrey Epstein documents. It may get

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Speaker 7: more and more uncomfortable for him to maintain that position

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Speaker 7: as time goes on, but he has not wavered. He

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Speaker 7: has said there's no negotiating, no work to be done

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Speaker 7: unless the shutdown ends. And I don't see any signs

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Speaker 7: of him changing his mind at this point.

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Speaker 3: There you have it from Jack Fitzpatrick. Take it to

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Speaker 3: the bank for now.

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Speaker 2: I have a feeling we're going to be talking to

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Speaker 2: Jack a little more before they have this settled. He's

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Speaker 2: at Bloomberg Government Congressional reporter has been knee deep in

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Speaker 2: this conversation for more than sixteen days.

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Speaker 3: It's sixteen days.

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Speaker 2: Of the shutdown now, but we've been talking about this

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Speaker 2: going back weeks before it happened. When the votes take place,

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Speaker 2: will of course let you know. The other major story

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Speaker 2: that we're following today brings us to the other end

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Speaker 2: of Pennsylvania Avenue. Donald Trump on truth Social just before

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Speaker 2: we came to air. This is now almost two hours ago.

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Speaker 2: I am speaking to President Putin now, he wrote. We

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Speaker 2: did give a headline a bit earlier that they were

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Speaker 2: expected to speak today. The conversation, he says, is ongoing,

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Speaker 2: a lengthy one, and I will report the contents, as

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Speaker 2: will President Putin. At its conclusion. Thank you for your

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Speaker 2: attention to this matter. This call could still be underway,

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Speaker 2: it may have ended, and we haven't seen another post yet.

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Speaker 3: We don't know.

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Speaker 2: But of course there was a question about tomahawks along

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Speaker 2: with other defensive weaponry that came from President Zelenski. He's

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Speaker 2: going to be meeting with President Trump tomorrow. This forty

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Speaker 2: eight hour period could be critical and determining the next

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Speaker 2: phase of the war in Ukraine.

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Speaker 3: And it's coming against the.

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Speaker 2: Backdrop, of course, and calls for additional defense investments across

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Speaker 2: the continent, which is why it's a pleasure to be

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Speaker 2: able to spend some time with Nadia Calvino, the president

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Speaker 2: of the European Investment Bank, which I want you to

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Speaker 2: think of as the financial arm if you will, of

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Speaker 2: the European Union. President, it's great to have you with

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Speaker 2: us on Bloomberg TV and Radio. Thank you for being here.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to Washington on this IMF week. I hope your

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Speaker 2: meetings have been going well.

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Speaker 8: Yes, they're going really well, very interesting. It's always a

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Speaker 8: pleasure to be back here in Bloomberg.

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Speaker 3: Well, I appreciate that very much. Here.

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Speaker 2: According to our reporting, the European Union is laying out

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Speaker 2: a five year plan when we consider investment across the

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Speaker 2: continent to help rearm and restrain Russia. To what extent

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Speaker 2: is the EIB involved in that broad investment that will

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Speaker 2: clearly take years to realize.

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Speaker 8: Indeed, the European Investment Bank, as the financing arm of

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Speaker 8: the European Union, has.

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Speaker 9: An important role to play in stepping up.

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Speaker 8: Europe's capabilities in the air of security and defense. There

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Speaker 8: are many different needs and we are very well placed

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Speaker 8: to finance some key large infrastructures, critical infrastructures, military facilities,

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Speaker 8: also research production capacity for example drove manufacturing, and also

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Speaker 8: support financial support to small and medium sized companies in

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Speaker 8: the supply chain of large European contractors. It is unfortunate

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Speaker 8: I think that we are leaving this situation, but Europe

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Speaker 8: has a very clear vision of where to go and

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Speaker 8: the European Investment Back is helping get there.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's interesting that we're seeing a lot of these

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Speaker 2: smaller defense companies, in some cases startups, that are reinventing

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Speaker 2: the way that we look at this and in some

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Speaker 2: cases challenging the old line big defense contractors. When it

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Speaker 2: comes two different contracts, you mentioned drones, which is something

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Speaker 2: that is a big deal here in the conversation about

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Speaker 2: defense technology, that the EIP is ready to invest millions

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Speaker 2: of euros in Europe's drone defenses. How would that be

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Speaker 2: doled out and how are you looking at that as

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Speaker 2: a continent as opposed to a collection of countries.

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Speaker 8: Well, right now, we have a very robust pipeline of

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Speaker 8: more than thirty flagship projects in the different areas I mentioned.

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Speaker 8: But we're following very attentively the upcoming meeting of leaders

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Speaker 8: of prime ministers and presidents that will take place next weekly,

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Speaker 8: the European Council meeting to see what is their vision

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Speaker 8: precisely when it comes to reinforcing the Eastern Board of

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Speaker 8: the EU, also drone manufacturing and protection against enemy drones, etc.

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Speaker 8: And we will be ready to help and support in

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Speaker 8: those areas where we have most value added.

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Speaker 2: I can tell you that the president's phone call with

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Speaker 2: Vladimir Putin has just ended. Okay, President, I just want

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Speaker 2: to take a look at what he's writing here. He says,

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Speaker 2: we've just concluded the telephone call, and it was a

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Speaker 2: very productive one, says Donald Trump. President Putin congratulated me

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Speaker 2: in the United States and the great accomplishment of peace

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Speaker 2: in the Middle East, something that he said had been

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Speaker 2: dreamed of for centuries. He goes on to try to

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Speaker 2: connect the Middle East to the war in Ukraine. Here

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Speaker 2: even mentions the first Lady says they spent a lot

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Speaker 2: of time talking about trade between Russia and the US

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Speaker 2: when the war with Ukraine is over, and said that

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Speaker 2: at the conclusion of the call, we agreed that there

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Speaker 2: will be a meeting of our high level advisors next

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Speaker 2: week the United States. Initial meetings will be led by

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Speaker 2: Secretary of State Marco Rubio, together with various other people

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Speaker 2: to be designated, a meeting location to be determined, and

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Speaker 2: then he says he and Putin will meet in an

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Speaker 2: agreed upon location Budapest, Hungary, to see if we can

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Speaker 2: bring this inglorious war to an end. He refers to

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Speaker 2: the Zelenski meeting tomorrow, in which he will discuss as

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Speaker 2: conversation with President Putin, so we have another meeting. Does

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Speaker 2: this kind of talk sound productive to you or more

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Speaker 2: of the same.

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Speaker 8: Well, I think it's very good to call this an

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Speaker 8: inglorious war? Is this Putting's war? A war of aggression?

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Speaker 8: More of choice? From the European Union's perspective, we want

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Speaker 8: these war to finish as soon as possible, So whatever

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Speaker 8: you can get us to a fair and stable piece

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Speaker 8: of course, it has to be fair and stable if

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Speaker 8: we want it to be permanent. It should be welcomed,

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Speaker 8: of course.

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Speaker 2: When we consider the need for energy and the war

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Speaker 2: over Russian oil, which I think is its own story altogether.

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Speaker 2: Would the EIB help cover Ukrainian purchases of US LNG

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Speaker 2: if that helped to end the war sooner?

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Speaker 8: We are actually we have just signed a three hundred

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Speaker 8: million deal with Ukraine.

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Speaker 9: I had a meeting with a.

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Speaker 8: Prime minister Srividenko yesterday and we're looking into options to

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Speaker 8: step it up even so that they can replenish their

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Speaker 8: gas reserves for the winter. We are also supporting Ukraine

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Speaker 8: when it comes to rebuilding critical infrastructures, including transport and energy.

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Speaker 8: And we're supporting Ukraine when it comes to rebuilding the

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Speaker 8: daily supporting the daily lives of Ukrainian so that they

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Speaker 8: can need leave lives that are as normal as possible,

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Speaker 8: you know, in this totally extraordinary and terrible circumstance, Rebuilding hospital, schools, kindergartens,

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Speaker 8: protecting the infrastructure so that children can go to school.

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Speaker 8: I think this is essential if we want to protect

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Speaker 8: a strong basis for the recovery once the war is over.

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Speaker 2: There's so much that we can talk about that is

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Speaker 2: depressing the idea of rebuilding is the definition of optimism,

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Speaker 2: and I'd love to hear how far you allow yourself

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Speaker 2: to not only think about it, but to plan for it,

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Speaker 2: because obviously, this is a war that could end soon

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Speaker 2: and an enormous amount of work will be done and

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Speaker 2: money required from governments and private industry.

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Speaker 3: How far have you planned this out?

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Speaker 8: I am very grateful for your question, and I'm going

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Speaker 8: to also smile, you know, and I say absolutely. I

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Speaker 8: actually think I am very confident that Ukraine will bounce

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Speaker 8: back very strongly once the war is over, because I

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Speaker 8: have seen the determination, the resilience, the commitment of Ukrainians.

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Speaker 8: I have also seen the very strong infrastructures of the country,

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Speaker 8: and we have been supporting them for more than two

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Speaker 8: years to make sure that the country has a strong

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Speaker 8: basis on which to build this reconstruction and also to

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Speaker 8: pave the way for a successful accession to the European Union.

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Speaker 9: So I am confident.

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Speaker 8: You know, we just need putting to stop the war

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Speaker 8: and then we can move on to a new pace

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Speaker 8: which can be more constructive.

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Speaker 3: Is rebuilding Ukraine years or decades?

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Speaker 8: I tend to think it's years actually, because we are

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Speaker 8: talking about a country that continues to live a quite

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Speaker 8: normal life. You know, in these circumstances, the government has

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Speaker 8: managed to keep a financial management which responds to a

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Speaker 8: normal budget, to a normal administration, despite of course the

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Speaker 8: immense needs that are related to the war. And so

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Speaker 8: I think that the sooner we can move to the

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Speaker 8: next space, the better.

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Speaker 2: That is obviously a best case scenario. I guess at

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Speaker 2: this point, when it comes to European commitments like the

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Speaker 2: one that we mentioned for buying us LNG, do you

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Speaker 2: want to see a matching commitment from the United States

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Speaker 2: or do you think the administration has done what it

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Speaker 2: can at least financially speaking.

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Speaker 3: Well.

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Speaker 8: Right now, I think we all have to focus in

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Speaker 8: supporting Ukraine, and obviously military support is of the essence.

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Speaker 8: European countries are clearly stepping up their support, not only

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Speaker 8: to protect ourselves, to protect European Union.

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Speaker 9: But also to support Ukraine.

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Speaker 8: Countries are taking quite quite a novelle, quite innovative measures

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Speaker 8: to provide these support, and I think this is the

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Speaker 8: essential thing so that we can see an end to

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Speaker 8: the war, and then we will have to see how

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Speaker 8: everybody contributes to supporting the recovery of the country.

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Speaker 3: Fascinating to spend some time with you.

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Speaker 2: President Calvino, Thank you so much for being with us

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Speaker 2: today in Washington here on Bloomberg. I hope the rest

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Speaker 2: of your IMF week is productive. Thank you to stay

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Speaker 2: in touch with us and come see us again, because

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Speaker 2: this is a story that's very important to us and

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Speaker 2: one that's not likely going away anytime soon. President Trump's

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Speaker 2: call with Vladimir Putin has just ended. We'll have much

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Speaker 2: more on this ahead, remembering that at this time tomorrow

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Speaker 2: we'll be talking about his meeting in the Oval Office

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Speaker 2: with President Zelenski. Stay with us on Balance of Power.

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Speaker 2: We'll have much more coming up after this.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

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Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on

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Speaker 1: Apple Coarclay, and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business App.

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Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch

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Speaker 1: us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 3: The phone call has ended. If you're just joining us.

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump spent some time today with Vladimir Putin talking

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Speaker 2: about the war in Ukraine. Who wasn't in person this time,

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Speaker 2: they were on the phone, and it appears, at least

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Speaker 2: based on the truth social posts that that call was

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Speaker 2: approaching two hours in length. President back on social media

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Speaker 2: to announced the conclusion of the phone call, and there

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Speaker 2: is some news here, does not involve tomahawks or even

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Speaker 2: a potential end of the war, but another round of

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Speaker 2: meetings high level advisors. He says, we'll meet next week.

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Speaker 2: Location and attendance other than the Secretary of State to

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Speaker 2: be determined. But he says, President Putin and I will

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Speaker 2: then meet in an agreed upon location Budapest, Hungary, to

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Speaker 2: see if we can bring this inglorious war between Russia

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Speaker 2: and Ukraine to an end. Remembering, of course, that he

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Speaker 2: meets with Voladimir Zelensky tomorrow in the Oval Office, and

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Speaker 2: the President refers to that, saying he will discuss his conversation.

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Speaker 3: With Putin and much more.

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Speaker 2: I believe great progress was made with today's telephone conversation.

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Speaker 2: Helping us quantify that progress, if it's possible, is Lauren Dezenski,

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg's White House correspondent on the case today and with

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Speaker 2: us here in our Washington bureau. Lauren, it's great to

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Speaker 2: see you. This meeting tomorrow was already high stakes. If

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Speaker 2: your President Zelenski reading this probably doesn't give you a

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Speaker 2: lot of hope that tomahawks are on the way.

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Speaker 10: Yeah, considering that this is the war that Trump wants

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Speaker 10: to resolve, perhaps maybe there could be an opening for

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Speaker 10: Zelenski to push. Trump has really talked about how this

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Speaker 10: inglorious war, as he put it today, is the last

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Speaker 10: remaining one that.

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Speaker 9: He really wants to solve, and so.

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Speaker 10: Maybe something will be different, maybe conditions have changed.

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Speaker 9: That was one of the big questions.

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Speaker 10: Caroline Lovett, the White House Press Secretary, was on Fox

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Speaker 10: News right before Trump post jof trams social and she

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Speaker 10: basically said that, you know, Trump and Putin talked about

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Speaker 10: trade like something may be happening, essentially, and to what

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Speaker 10: extent Trump can use this with Putin as leverage with

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Speaker 10: Zelenski to ultimately bring everyone to the table. Clearly something

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Speaker 10: has had to change, something has shifted. Trump obviously doesn't

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Speaker 10: also want a replay of what happened in Alaska where

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Speaker 10: he brought Putin out. There was a flyover cameras, et cetera,

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Speaker 10: and then not a whole lot came from it. Are

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Speaker 10: we just going to get another round of two week

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Speaker 10: extensions for this thing that never actually happened? Probably not

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Speaker 10: so whether or not tomahawks are on the menu tomorrow TVD.

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Speaker 6: But if I.

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Speaker 10: Were Zelenski, in the very least, I'd be pushing for

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Speaker 10: that because there could be an opening there.

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Speaker 2: Well, they're going to have the opportunity in the Oval,

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Speaker 2: remembering that their first meeting in the Oval Office didn't

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Speaker 2: go so well. There was a follow on visit to

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Speaker 2: the White House that Zelenski thought was quite productive. In fact,

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Speaker 2: the whole narrative though that Donald Trump had sort of

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Speaker 2: shifted allegiances to sort of empathize with Ukraine based on

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Speaker 2: his frustration with Vladimir Putin doesn't seem to be echoed.

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Speaker 3: In this post.

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Speaker 2: Do you wonder what kind of a phone call This

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Speaker 2: wasn't what Putin had to tell him.

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Speaker 10: Yes, the words being used are very productive, and that's

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Speaker 10: really all we know. We also know that Trump kind

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Speaker 10: of goes back and forth on things like this.

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Speaker 9: Look at how he reacts to China.

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Speaker 10: We have very good phone calls and then tariff threats

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Speaker 10: and things following through with tariffs. It changes moment to

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Speaker 10: moment based off of these discussions. And I think, for

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Speaker 10: what it's worth, Putin's breakthrough with the first Lady with

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Speaker 10: returning the Ukrainian children that Russia took during the war.

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Speaker 10: I think that that possibly created some good will with

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Speaker 10: Trump toward Putin that paved this phone call and then

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Speaker 10: pushed forward. So I think that that might be something there.

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Speaker 10: But again I think we'll just have to see.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, you mentioned the summit in Alaska. Rick Davis referred

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Speaker 2: to that I think as the least successful summit in

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Speaker 2: presidential history, or one of them. But there was really

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Speaker 2: there was no framework to take away. And remember they

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Speaker 2: decided spontaneously at the beginning of a global news conference

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Speaker 2: to take no questions. So we really don't know what

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Speaker 2: came from the ride in the limousine or the brief

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Speaker 2: meeting that they had.

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Speaker 9: But there was a flyover, Joe, Well, it was a.

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Speaker 2: Big flyover, that's true, and I suspect maybe there will

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Speaker 2: be in Budapest. But the question that we're asking is

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Speaker 2: will there be anything hammered out in advance as you

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Speaker 2: might have seen in a traditional presidential summit, where the

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Speaker 2: terms have been already laid out and the meeting is

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Speaker 2: really a formality.

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Speaker 10: You would think that So next week we know at

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Speaker 10: least that there is a high level meeting of advisors

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Speaker 10: between Trump and Putin. Their advisors are meeting next week,

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Speaker 10: location unknown, And while we know that Trump and Putin

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Speaker 10: will meet in Budapest, that timing is unknown.

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Speaker 9: One would assume that the traditional.

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Speaker 10: Diplomatic process of the high level advisors hashing things out

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Speaker 10: ahead of time would then lay the groundwork for some

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Speaker 10: sort of agreement going forward. But of course this is

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Speaker 10: a three legged stool, and Ukraine needs to be involved.

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Speaker 10: Nothing about without Ukraine, at least was the Biden administrations

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Speaker 10: phrasing there. So to what extent the US and Russia

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Speaker 10: can hash something out without Ukraine stands to be seen.

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Speaker 10: And I think also like that that makes the timing

443
00:22:12,680 --> 00:22:16,000
Speaker 10: of Zelensky's visit to the White House tomorrow quite good

444
00:22:16,040 --> 00:22:20,320
Speaker 10: and quite advantageous. And Trump fort you know, whatever people

445
00:22:20,359 --> 00:22:23,360
Speaker 10: want to say about the deals that are made and

446
00:22:23,480 --> 00:22:24,200
Speaker 10: the types of.

447
00:22:24,200 --> 00:22:26,760
Speaker 9: Deals that they are, he does have a way.

448
00:22:26,640 --> 00:22:31,760
Speaker 10: Of kind of pushing through and creating conditions to yield

449
00:22:31,920 --> 00:22:35,200
Speaker 10: results that would not have existed otherwise. I mean, look

450
00:22:35,240 --> 00:22:38,840
Speaker 10: at the hostage release in Israel and Gaza and Hamas.

451
00:22:39,400 --> 00:22:42,160
Speaker 9: That's there's to be clear.

452
00:22:42,480 --> 00:22:46,720
Speaker 10: The subsequent situation that has occurred is you know, very

453
00:22:46,800 --> 00:22:49,520
Speaker 10: much kind of up in the air, and what that

454
00:22:49,520 --> 00:22:52,920
Speaker 10: deal looks like is a little tenuous, but something did

455
00:22:52,960 --> 00:22:57,119
Speaker 10: happen there, and so with when it comes to any

456
00:22:57,160 --> 00:23:01,000
Speaker 10: sort of substantive deal between the US and Russia and Ukraine.

457
00:23:01,040 --> 00:23:04,040
Speaker 10: I think the next forty eight hours are going to

458
00:23:04,080 --> 00:23:05,200
Speaker 10: be really instructive.

459
00:23:05,800 --> 00:23:07,440
Speaker 2: It's great to have you with us here covering the

460
00:23:07,480 --> 00:23:10,760
Speaker 2: White House for US at Bloomberg, Lauren Dozenski, with the

461
00:23:10,800 --> 00:23:13,080
Speaker 2: Truth Socials flying, and of course the meeting that we

462
00:23:13,080 --> 00:23:15,600
Speaker 2: were waiting for it has now concluded.

463
00:23:15,840 --> 00:23:17,880
Speaker 3: Lauren, is great to have you back. As always.

464
00:23:18,040 --> 00:23:21,000
Speaker 2: I'm Joe Matthew in Washington, speaking of, by the way,

465
00:23:21,520 --> 00:23:25,760
Speaker 2: the war in Gaza and the tenuous ceasefire that Lauren

466
00:23:25,800 --> 00:23:28,840
Speaker 2: refers to. The President just posting again on Truth Social

467
00:23:28,920 --> 00:23:33,560
Speaker 2: about hamas he's been busy on a number of fronts here.

468
00:23:33,600 --> 00:23:36,280
Speaker 2: If Amas continues to kill people in Gaza, he writes,

469
00:23:36,720 --> 00:23:39,720
Speaker 2: which was not the deal, we will have no choice

470
00:23:39,720 --> 00:23:41,879
Speaker 2: but to go in and kill them. Thank you for

471
00:23:41,920 --> 00:23:44,480
Speaker 2: your attention to this matter. The President's been asked repeatedly

472
00:23:44,840 --> 00:23:48,040
Speaker 2: recently if that would involve American boots on the ground.

473
00:23:48,119 --> 00:23:50,200
Speaker 2: So far the answer has been no, but it's unclear

474
00:23:50,520 --> 00:23:53,760
Speaker 2: how he might pursue these goals. In the meantime, It's

475
00:23:53,840 --> 00:23:56,360
Speaker 2: day sixteen of the government shut down. We've been reminding

476
00:23:56,359 --> 00:23:58,399
Speaker 2: you of this, and Jack Fitzpatrick gave us a pretty

477
00:23:58,400 --> 00:24:00,600
Speaker 2: good readout at the top of the hour. There is

478
00:24:00,640 --> 00:24:03,840
Speaker 2: some hope about backroom conversations. That's been the case for

479
00:24:03,960 --> 00:24:08,240
Speaker 2: days now. But there's also hope that John Thuhn is

480
00:24:08,320 --> 00:24:12,840
Speaker 2: now essentially guaranteeing a vote to extend Obamacare subsidies. This

481
00:24:12,960 --> 00:24:16,600
Speaker 2: is something that is not new, according to Thun or

482
00:24:16,680 --> 00:24:18,199
Speaker 2: the Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson.

483
00:24:18,240 --> 00:24:21,960
Speaker 3: He spoke to reporters earlier today. Let's listen. He offered

484
00:24:22,000 --> 00:24:23,600
Speaker 3: to Chuck Schumer.

485
00:24:25,000 --> 00:24:30,919
Speaker 11: A vote on Obamacare subsidies, and Schumer said no, that happened.

486
00:24:30,880 --> 00:24:33,840
Speaker 11: Ask Leader Thon about it, because they wanted a guaranteed outcome.

487
00:24:34,200 --> 00:24:35,400
Speaker 3: Here's why we can't do that.

488
00:24:35,520 --> 00:24:39,720
Speaker 11: Let me say this very clearly and for everyone again. Okay,

489
00:24:40,560 --> 00:24:43,119
Speaker 11: the Obamacare subsidy issue is not the issue of today.

490
00:24:43,160 --> 00:24:45,400
Speaker 11: It is in a subsidy that expires December thirty one.

491
00:24:45,440 --> 00:24:47,760
Speaker 11: We were always planning to continue the debate and discussion

492
00:24:47,840 --> 00:24:51,720
Speaker 11: about that issue in October and November. Ironically, Democrats are

493
00:24:51,920 --> 00:24:53,200
Speaker 11: taking the time off the clock for.

494
00:24:53,200 --> 00:24:53,639
Speaker 3: Us to do that.

495
00:24:55,040 --> 00:24:58,400
Speaker 2: Okay, So John Thune got everybody's hopes up on MSNBC this.

496
00:24:58,359 --> 00:25:00,440
Speaker 3: Morning of all networks.

497
00:25:01,080 --> 00:25:04,920
Speaker 2: Now Speaker Johnson is there to maybe put a little

498
00:25:04,920 --> 00:25:05,840
Speaker 2: cold water on this.

499
00:25:05,960 --> 00:25:07,119
Speaker 3: Maybe nothing has changed.

500
00:25:07,119 --> 00:25:09,200
Speaker 2: That's why we want to talk to Mark Short, former

501
00:25:09,280 --> 00:25:11,520
Speaker 2: chief of Staff de Vice President Mike Pency was also

502
00:25:12,000 --> 00:25:16,760
Speaker 2: the liaison to Congress Congressional Director in the original Trump administration.

503
00:25:16,840 --> 00:25:18,600
Speaker 2: Mark Short, Welcome back. It's great to see you. Thanks

504
00:25:18,600 --> 00:25:20,520
Speaker 2: for having us closer to this being a resolved or

505
00:25:21,080 --> 00:25:23,520
Speaker 2: I think they're closer just because of a timeline. No, No,

506
00:25:23,800 --> 00:25:27,080
Speaker 2: not really, well, not so much because of the policies. Look,

507
00:25:27,160 --> 00:25:28,639
Speaker 2: I think this has always been the out you and

508
00:25:28,720 --> 00:25:30,920
Speaker 2: I have talked about this is that eventually I think

509
00:25:31,000 --> 00:25:34,600
Speaker 2: Republicans will cave on the Obamacare subsidies, and that was

510
00:25:34,680 --> 00:25:37,399
Speaker 2: always the way that this is going to resolve itself

511
00:25:37,440 --> 00:25:38,680
Speaker 2: because of the timeline of those.

512
00:25:39,359 --> 00:25:41,159
Speaker 12: But I think that Speaker Johnson's right. I think this

513
00:25:41,200 --> 00:25:43,320
Speaker 12: has always been on the table as far as a vote.

514
00:25:43,520 --> 00:25:45,960
Speaker 12: It's interesting that Democrats didn't jump on that, and I

515
00:25:46,000 --> 00:25:48,320
Speaker 12: think Joe the reason is because I think they're feeling

516
00:25:48,359 --> 00:25:50,520
Speaker 12: more and more confident in their own position here, which

517
00:25:50,560 --> 00:25:53,560
Speaker 12: is a surprise because I think traditionally when Republicans have

518
00:25:53,640 --> 00:25:56,800
Speaker 12: forced shutdowns, eventually, you know, the American people look at

519
00:25:56,840 --> 00:25:58,360
Speaker 12: and say, well, who forced this, and they don't get

520
00:25:58,359 --> 00:26:00,879
Speaker 12: rewarded for it. I think in this case, Democrats forced

521
00:26:00,920 --> 00:26:03,440
Speaker 12: the shutdown. But I think they're feeling that they're going

522
00:26:03,520 --> 00:26:06,159
Speaker 12: to win on the Obamacare substy's issue. So a vote

523
00:26:06,520 --> 00:26:08,800
Speaker 12: being given a vote now is no longer sufficient for them.

524
00:26:08,840 --> 00:26:09,879
Speaker 12: They want to desire outcome.

525
00:26:10,280 --> 00:26:14,480
Speaker 2: Sure, when you were Legislative director in the first Trump term,

526
00:26:14,840 --> 00:26:17,480
Speaker 2: you would have been making phone calls this week saying, hey,

527
00:26:17,520 --> 00:26:19,959
Speaker 2: you know what, we got the troops paid, We've got

528
00:26:20,040 --> 00:26:22,639
Speaker 2: federal law enforcement, we got money for Wick. These are

529
00:26:22,680 --> 00:26:26,200
Speaker 2: really interesting moves that the administration has been making to say, well,

530
00:26:26,240 --> 00:26:28,280
Speaker 2: in the words of russ Vote, we're hunkering down for

531
00:26:28,359 --> 00:26:29,080
Speaker 2: a long one.

532
00:26:29,560 --> 00:26:31,840
Speaker 12: I think they are because I also think that the

533
00:26:31,880 --> 00:26:36,120
Speaker 12: administration actually is sort of, you know, engage a level

534
00:26:36,160 --> 00:26:40,200
Speaker 12: above Congress. The President is in Israel striking historic deals.

535
00:26:40,240 --> 00:26:44,480
Speaker 12: The President is looking for the next negotiation in Ukraine,

536
00:26:44,600 --> 00:26:46,959
Speaker 12: he's looking to his trade deal with g coming up

537
00:26:47,000 --> 00:26:49,800
Speaker 12: in November. And so I think that they're at a

538
00:26:49,840 --> 00:26:51,800
Speaker 12: whole different level, and they sort of like Congress is

539
00:26:51,840 --> 00:26:54,040
Speaker 12: beneath them, so why get mired into that right now?

540
00:26:54,200 --> 00:26:55,879
Speaker 12: So I think there isn't as much interest in the

541
00:26:55,880 --> 00:26:58,760
Speaker 12: White House to engage, and it also slows down a

542
00:26:58,840 --> 00:27:00,080
Speaker 12: negotiation to resolve.

543
00:26:59,800 --> 00:27:01,440
Speaker 2: The sho it does, right, I mean, you've got Mike

544
00:27:01,520 --> 00:27:03,240
Speaker 2: Johnson saying this could be the longest ever.

545
00:27:03,320 --> 00:27:04,159
Speaker 3: Is that where your head is?

546
00:27:04,240 --> 00:27:06,400
Speaker 12: I'm not sure it's the longest ever, because I still

547
00:27:06,440 --> 00:27:09,160
Speaker 12: think that the next sort of backstop on this show

548
00:27:09,240 --> 00:27:12,400
Speaker 12: is November one, when the announcements of the new insurance

549
00:27:12,400 --> 00:27:14,800
Speaker 12: paims go out, And so I think that's going to

550
00:27:14,800 --> 00:27:15,640
Speaker 12: be a pressure.

551
00:27:15,359 --> 00:27:17,280
Speaker 3: Point the Republican governors start crying.

552
00:27:17,680 --> 00:27:20,600
Speaker 12: Yes, I think probably so. I mean I think was

553
00:27:21,119 --> 00:27:23,280
Speaker 12: to go back when we failed in our effort to

554
00:27:23,280 --> 00:27:26,280
Speaker 12: repeal Obamacare. One of the most untold stories of that

555
00:27:26,400 --> 00:27:29,560
Speaker 12: is it was really Republican governors because so many of

556
00:27:29,560 --> 00:27:32,440
Speaker 12: the Obamacare substies they were getting Medicaid funding, they did

557
00:27:32,480 --> 00:27:35,200
Speaker 12: not want that to stop, and they were calling legislators

558
00:27:35,240 --> 00:27:37,400
Speaker 12: asking them not to vote to repeal Obamacare.

559
00:27:37,480 --> 00:27:41,080
Speaker 2: So wait, that's a really important story to recall. This

560
00:27:41,119 --> 00:27:42,280
Speaker 2: could be happening again.

561
00:27:42,400 --> 00:27:45,320
Speaker 12: Absolutely, absolutely, Yeah, I think there'll be a lot of

562
00:27:45,320 --> 00:27:48,800
Speaker 12: pressure from Republican governors. I think there's enough Republican members

563
00:27:48,840 --> 00:27:51,600
Speaker 12: who represent districts. Look at Marjorie Taylor Green for instance,

564
00:27:51,960 --> 00:27:53,960
Speaker 12: who's been out there saying that we need to extend

565
00:27:54,000 --> 00:27:57,159
Speaker 12: the subseties. I personally think it's a terrible policy. I

566
00:27:57,160 --> 00:28:00,320
Speaker 12: think that the Democrats were really shrewd and basically over

567
00:28:00,359 --> 00:28:03,359
Speaker 12: insurance companies by promising subsidies. Interested you know, it started

568
00:28:03,359 --> 00:28:05,720
Speaker 12: at four hundred percent of the poverty level, Joe, and

569
00:28:05,760 --> 00:28:08,399
Speaker 12: now we're above that to be providing subsidies. But I

570
00:28:08,400 --> 00:28:11,240
Speaker 12: think politically there's enough Republicans going to go along with

571
00:28:11,280 --> 00:28:13,159
Speaker 12: it that that's going to still be the outcome of this.

572
00:28:13,320 --> 00:28:17,680
Speaker 2: With conditions, right, Republicans obviously have something on paper that's

573
00:28:17,720 --> 00:28:20,359
Speaker 2: going to say an income cap of what two hundred

574
00:28:20,359 --> 00:28:24,159
Speaker 2: thousand dollars, a point of expiration. I mean, the idea

575
00:28:24,320 --> 00:28:26,359
Speaker 2: was that at some point these would not be made permanent,

576
00:28:26,359 --> 00:28:28,880
Speaker 2: although I know a lot of Democrats wanted to make they'll.

577
00:28:28,640 --> 00:28:30,760
Speaker 3: Be a point of expiration. But that's what we have

578
00:28:31,160 --> 00:28:32,680
Speaker 3: that shutdown, that's what we have right now.

579
00:28:33,080 --> 00:28:36,280
Speaker 12: There's a point of expiration during the COVID and since

580
00:28:36,320 --> 00:28:38,880
Speaker 12: that this was legislated to extend them for two years,

581
00:28:38,880 --> 00:28:41,040
Speaker 12: and so I think that, you know, the hardest thing

582
00:28:41,080 --> 00:28:43,360
Speaker 12: to do is to end the government program, Joe and so.

583
00:28:43,360 --> 00:28:45,200
Speaker 12: So I think that even though you might have a

584
00:28:45,240 --> 00:28:47,840
Speaker 12: temporary end date, it'll be hard to see that there'll

585
00:28:47,840 --> 00:28:49,720
Speaker 12: be the political muscle to end it at that point too.

586
00:28:49,800 --> 00:28:53,720
Speaker 2: Democrats say, Donald Trump made the twenty seventeen tax cuts permanent,

587
00:28:53,720 --> 00:28:55,320
Speaker 2: why can't we make this permanent?

588
00:28:55,960 --> 00:29:00,520
Speaker 12: Well, again, I think that the Democrats created a run

589
00:29:00,600 --> 00:29:03,320
Speaker 12: healthcare system. There's been a total disaster that continues to

590
00:29:03,360 --> 00:29:05,880
Speaker 12: create more and more and more government funding. I don't

591
00:29:05,880 --> 00:29:07,520
Speaker 12: think people are happy with it, but they've created the

592
00:29:07,560 --> 00:29:10,160
Speaker 12: system where it's, hey, it's too expensive, we don't extend

593
00:29:10,200 --> 00:29:13,000
Speaker 12: the subsidies. And that's just the ongoing problem that we're

594
00:29:13,000 --> 00:29:13,320
Speaker 12: in now.

595
00:29:13,440 --> 00:29:16,840
Speaker 2: You know, John Thune's doing more than promising Obamacare of

596
00:29:17,200 --> 00:29:20,080
Speaker 2: votes and we've got just about a minute left here,

597
00:29:20,160 --> 00:29:23,240
Speaker 2: he's going to have a vote on the NDAA potentially

598
00:29:23,600 --> 00:29:25,200
Speaker 2: by the end of the day. What do you make

599
00:29:25,240 --> 00:29:27,160
Speaker 2: of that strategy to see if we can get Democrats

600
00:29:27,240 --> 00:29:28,960
Speaker 2: come to the Florida vote for something.

601
00:29:29,280 --> 00:29:32,600
Speaker 12: I think it's really smart because either you're saying, hey,

602
00:29:32,640 --> 00:29:35,600
Speaker 12: we want to continue with government funding or continue the

603
00:29:35,680 --> 00:29:38,200
Speaker 12: business of the Senate, or we're in a shutdown, right,

604
00:29:38,400 --> 00:29:40,120
Speaker 12: and so I think it's smart for him to keep

605
00:29:40,160 --> 00:29:43,440
Speaker 12: putting forward votes to that nature that it's funding DoD or.

606
00:29:43,440 --> 00:29:44,240
Speaker 3: Now in DAA.

607
00:29:44,520 --> 00:29:45,560
Speaker 12: I think those are smarts.

608
00:29:45,640 --> 00:29:48,760
Speaker 2: But they shake a couple of Democrats loose, maybe because CR.

609
00:29:49,040 --> 00:29:50,959
Speaker 12: I think, well, I think it could shake them one

610
00:29:51,040 --> 00:29:52,960
Speaker 12: or two lose on these individual bills, got it. I

611
00:29:53,000 --> 00:29:54,680
Speaker 12: think that the CR is not going to be soft

612
00:29:54,760 --> 00:29:57,440
Speaker 12: until you getting around November first, and you have again

613
00:29:57,480 --> 00:29:58,600
Speaker 12: to push on the subsidies.

614
00:29:58,640 --> 00:30:00,960
Speaker 3: We're going to be eating turkey. It's still talking about this, right,

615
00:30:01,200 --> 00:30:03,360
Speaker 3: I don't know, don't answer that. Mark Short with us

616
00:30:03,640 --> 00:30:04,200
Speaker 3: in the flash.

617
00:30:04,200 --> 00:30:07,320
Speaker 2: Great to see you as always, Republican strategist Mark Short

618
00:30:07,360 --> 00:30:09,959
Speaker 2: on Balance of Power on Bloomberg TV and Radio. I'm

619
00:30:10,040 --> 00:30:12,600
Speaker 2: Joe Matthew in Washington. We'll have the latest on the

620
00:30:12,600 --> 00:30:16,080
Speaker 2: shutdown yes day sixteen. Stay with us here on Bloomberg.

621
00:30:16,120 --> 00:30:18,200
Speaker 2: Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much

622
00:30:18,240 --> 00:30:19,440
Speaker 2: more coming up after this.

623
00:30:23,720 --> 00:30:27,200
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

624
00:30:27,280 --> 00:30:30,720
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple,

625
00:30:30,800 --> 00:30:33,800
Speaker 1: Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You

626
00:30:33,840 --> 00:30:37,320
Speaker 1: can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship

627
00:30:37,400 --> 00:30:41,280
Speaker 1: New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

628
00:30:42,680 --> 00:30:44,680
Speaker 2: We keep the markets in the fold, and frequently they

629
00:30:44,680 --> 00:30:47,880
Speaker 2: collide with policy in Washington, driving stocks, and we'll see

630
00:30:47,880 --> 00:30:49,720
Speaker 2: if that ends up being the case today with the

631
00:30:49,760 --> 00:30:53,040
Speaker 2: government shutdown, that's got the market's attention, maybe a little

632
00:30:53,080 --> 00:30:56,520
Speaker 2: bit more, with lawmakers suggesting that this could be a record.

633
00:30:56,600 --> 00:30:58,840
Speaker 2: When I say lawmakers, the Speaker of the House now

634
00:30:58,840 --> 00:31:00,880
Speaker 2: allowing for this is the White House says it is

635
00:31:01,800 --> 00:31:04,440
Speaker 2: battening down the hatches. That was the word from Russ

636
00:31:04,520 --> 00:31:08,200
Speaker 2: vote day sixteen. Mario Parker is along for the ride

637
00:31:08,200 --> 00:31:12,880
Speaker 2: again today, Mario, they're going to keep doing this. Another

638
00:31:12,960 --> 00:31:15,600
Speaker 2: round of votes today, same bill, same results.

639
00:31:16,000 --> 00:31:18,520
Speaker 13: No, absolutely, but you did see I guess what's different

640
00:31:18,560 --> 00:31:21,280
Speaker 13: here is that you did see John Thune this morning

641
00:31:22,040 --> 00:31:24,880
Speaker 13: suggest that he'd be open to having some type of

642
00:31:24,960 --> 00:31:27,040
Speaker 13: vote yes on ACA subsidies.

643
00:31:27,320 --> 00:31:28,360
Speaker 3: I don't know if that's.

644
00:31:28,240 --> 00:31:30,840
Speaker 13: Tealy freading to say that things have gotten warmer, but

645
00:31:31,640 --> 00:31:32,720
Speaker 13: it's something.

646
00:31:32,440 --> 00:31:33,880
Speaker 3: Well, I think it is something.

647
00:31:34,080 --> 00:31:36,840
Speaker 2: And let's also consider the fact that he set it

648
00:31:36,840 --> 00:31:38,920
Speaker 2: on MSNBC So I don't know what kind of an

649
00:31:38,920 --> 00:31:40,960
Speaker 2: olive branch this might be, but let's let everyone hear

650
00:31:41,000 --> 00:31:46,040
Speaker 2: what the Republican leader of the Senate said earlier on MS.

651
00:31:45,160 --> 00:31:47,120
Speaker 4: John I told him, I said, and I said, we

652
00:31:47,160 --> 00:31:48,800
Speaker 4: are willing to have a conversation. I said, if you

653
00:31:48,840 --> 00:31:50,840
Speaker 4: need a vote, we can. We can guarantee you get

654
00:31:50,840 --> 00:31:53,760
Speaker 4: a vote by a date certain at some point Democrats

655
00:31:53,840 --> 00:31:55,040
Speaker 4: have to take yes for an answer.

656
00:31:55,240 --> 00:31:56,680
Speaker 3: But I agree totally.

657
00:31:56,760 --> 00:31:59,680
Speaker 4: We are all about getting health insurance down, making it

658
00:31:59,720 --> 00:32:00,880
Speaker 4: a four ale more people.

659
00:32:01,040 --> 00:32:03,600
Speaker 5: So I hear you saying about the program that needs reforms.

660
00:32:03,600 --> 00:32:06,000
Speaker 5: It sounds like you're guaranteeing that there will be a

661
00:32:06,080 --> 00:32:07,040
Speaker 5: negotiation on this.

662
00:32:07,320 --> 00:32:10,120
Speaker 4: Well, what I'm saying is there is a there's a

663
00:32:10,120 --> 00:32:12,520
Speaker 4: path forward, I believe, but yes, what it has to

664
00:32:12,600 --> 00:32:15,440
Speaker 4: but it has to include it has to include reforms.

665
00:32:15,880 --> 00:32:18,080
Speaker 4: And you know, can I guarantee an outcome?

666
00:32:18,200 --> 00:32:18,360
Speaker 6: No?

667
00:32:19,760 --> 00:32:22,240
Speaker 2: Well, this is interesting because the week that we shut down,

668
00:32:22,280 --> 00:32:24,560
Speaker 2: now it's a few weeks ago, we had Democrats on

669
00:32:24,600 --> 00:32:29,120
Speaker 2: this program saying that a guarantee of a floor vote

670
00:32:29,200 --> 00:32:32,000
Speaker 2: would be enough to get us to a yes. At

671
00:32:32,040 --> 00:32:34,920
Speaker 2: least enough senators. You only need a half dozen to

672
00:32:34,920 --> 00:32:39,600
Speaker 2: make this thing work. Then the talk started to really

673
00:32:39,640 --> 00:32:43,720
Speaker 2: revolve around a deal on extending Obamacare subsidies. Then it

674
00:32:43,760 --> 00:32:46,920
Speaker 2: became the deal had to come before voting for the CR.

675
00:32:48,080 --> 00:32:50,280
Speaker 2: So we're trying to keep the lines straight on this,

676
00:32:50,360 --> 00:32:54,280
Speaker 2: and it does seem significant what John Thune said earlier today,

677
00:32:54,480 --> 00:32:56,560
Speaker 2: which is why we wanted to talk to Ashley Davis

678
00:32:56,600 --> 00:32:59,400
Speaker 2: about this. Republican Strategists partner at S three Group, have

679
00:32:59,440 --> 00:33:02,040
Speaker 2: spent a lot of time time in the Senate recently

680
00:33:02,080 --> 00:33:04,880
Speaker 2: trying to gauge what's going to happen next. It's great

681
00:33:04,880 --> 00:33:07,880
Speaker 2: to see you, Ashually welcome back as johnath to be

682
00:33:07,920 --> 00:33:08,920
Speaker 2: the one to solve this.

683
00:33:10,920 --> 00:33:13,360
Speaker 14: Listen, I don't really think what he said was much

684
00:33:13,400 --> 00:33:17,280
Speaker 14: different than what he has been saying. Is that we

685
00:33:17,360 --> 00:33:20,600
Speaker 14: will have some sort of negotiation on the subsidies. It's

686
00:33:20,640 --> 00:33:23,680
Speaker 14: just not going to be before we vote for the

687
00:33:23,680 --> 00:33:27,040
Speaker 14: government to reopen with the clean CR. I mean, listen,

688
00:33:27,480 --> 00:33:29,080
Speaker 14: I am not a big fan of how this is

689
00:33:29,120 --> 00:33:32,080
Speaker 14: going down. I think that this is a bad way

690
00:33:32,120 --> 00:33:35,280
Speaker 14: to legislate on both sides of the aisle. I still

691
00:33:35,320 --> 00:33:37,000
Speaker 14: think we're a couple of weeks away. I think there's

692
00:33:37,040 --> 00:33:40,760
Speaker 14: two tipping points, one being October twenty eighth, when the

693
00:33:40,800 --> 00:33:44,440
Speaker 14: government loses their first full paycheck. This past week was

694
00:33:44,840 --> 00:33:48,960
Speaker 14: a partial paycheck. So the real pain will happen on

695
00:33:49,000 --> 00:33:52,000
Speaker 14: October twenty eighth, especially when you look at like TSA

696
00:33:52,120 --> 00:33:55,360
Speaker 14: and FAA, things like that that will be impacted. But

697
00:33:55,480 --> 00:33:59,400
Speaker 14: also November first is when open enrollment happens on the

698
00:33:59,440 --> 00:34:02,800
Speaker 14: ACA subsidies, and there's many that think that that's going

699
00:34:02,840 --> 00:34:05,320
Speaker 14: to be a tipping point as well. But listen, we're

700
00:34:05,360 --> 00:34:09,040
Speaker 14: just going to This is all politics and on both sides,

701
00:34:09,239 --> 00:34:12,000
Speaker 14: and it's not helpful to the American people. But one

702
00:34:12,040 --> 00:34:15,520
Speaker 14: more thing, Joe, something I thought was very interesting today.

703
00:34:15,520 --> 00:34:17,440
Speaker 14: I don't know if you saw the economist pull that

704
00:34:17,880 --> 00:34:21,080
Speaker 14: only twenty one percent of people in the country feel

705
00:34:21,160 --> 00:34:24,359
Speaker 14: that the federal government is impacting them at all. That's

706
00:34:24,400 --> 00:34:27,279
Speaker 14: a pretty little number, which is why there's not much

707
00:34:27,320 --> 00:34:29,560
Speaker 14: of a tipping point here for people to negotiate.

708
00:34:30,080 --> 00:34:31,680
Speaker 6: And when you have DoD being.

709
00:34:31,520 --> 00:34:34,719
Speaker 14: Paid from you know, the president finding money under the

710
00:34:34,760 --> 00:34:37,279
Speaker 14: cushions this week, and then you know, does the same

711
00:34:37,320 --> 00:34:40,960
Speaker 14: thing happen, say with FA and TSA on the twenty

712
00:34:41,000 --> 00:34:44,960
Speaker 14: eight I mean that takes the pressure off opening up quickly.

713
00:34:47,200 --> 00:34:48,800
Speaker 3: And Ashley, it's a Joe's point.

714
00:34:48,840 --> 00:34:52,720
Speaker 13: The fact that that Dune made those comments this morning

715
00:34:52,760 --> 00:34:57,239
Speaker 13: on MSNBC known to have more of a progressive or

716
00:34:57,280 --> 00:34:59,040
Speaker 13: democratic base or viewership.

717
00:34:59,320 --> 00:34:59,719
Speaker 10: What is that?

718
00:35:00,640 --> 00:35:02,680
Speaker 13: Are we looking too deeply into that or is there

719
00:35:02,680 --> 00:35:05,040
Speaker 13: some type of strategy there is he trying to message

720
00:35:05,440 --> 00:35:08,320
Speaker 13: to Schumer and Jeffrey's constituencies.

721
00:35:10,239 --> 00:35:13,560
Speaker 14: Maybe I just don't think, listen, I don't think. First

722
00:35:13,600 --> 00:35:16,520
Speaker 14: of all, let's take a step back. These subsidies will

723
00:35:16,520 --> 00:35:18,720
Speaker 14: get dealt with one way or the other. In my mind,

724
00:35:18,760 --> 00:35:21,799
Speaker 14: they will not stay as is as they are right now.

725
00:35:21,880 --> 00:35:25,359
Speaker 14: Obviously they came into effective the levels that they are

726
00:35:25,480 --> 00:35:27,960
Speaker 14: during COVID. There needs to be some sort of reform.

727
00:35:28,040 --> 00:35:30,200
Speaker 14: You're not going to get very many Republicans in the

728
00:35:30,239 --> 00:35:34,360
Speaker 14: House or Senate that will vote for just complete extension.

729
00:35:35,239 --> 00:35:37,520
Speaker 14: But that doesn't expire till the end of the year,

730
00:35:37,800 --> 00:35:39,680
Speaker 14: and so we've got time. And I think you have

731
00:35:39,760 --> 00:35:44,480
Speaker 14: the Speaker continuing to say that they did their job,

732
00:35:44,520 --> 00:35:47,080
Speaker 14: they're doing a cr We're not negotiating until the government

733
00:35:47,120 --> 00:35:50,080
Speaker 14: opens back up. I kind of feel maybe that's what

734
00:35:50,280 --> 00:35:52,560
Speaker 14: Dune was saying today. Listen, I'll give a guarantee on

735
00:35:52,600 --> 00:35:55,879
Speaker 14: a vote. I'll give a guarantee on negotiations, but we're

736
00:35:55,920 --> 00:35:58,080
Speaker 14: not going to do that until we open the government

737
00:35:58,120 --> 00:36:02,960
Speaker 14: back up again. I just go back to if you're

738
00:36:02,960 --> 00:36:08,879
Speaker 14: in Kentucky right now watching our Congress debate over a

739
00:36:08,920 --> 00:36:10,640
Speaker 14: cr when it's going to open up, I mean, the

740
00:36:10,680 --> 00:36:13,000
Speaker 14: only thing you care about is getting paid. And so

741
00:36:13,200 --> 00:36:17,160
Speaker 14: I think that this is a really inside the Beltway conversation.

742
00:36:17,560 --> 00:36:20,480
Speaker 14: And but listen, people aren't feeling that they have a

743
00:36:20,480 --> 00:36:21,560
Speaker 14: lot of pressure right now.

744
00:36:22,960 --> 00:36:26,320
Speaker 2: Well, it's interesting that the issue of paying the troops.

745
00:36:26,320 --> 00:36:29,560
Speaker 2: You refer to Ashley, the president found eight billion dollars

746
00:36:30,320 --> 00:36:32,719
Speaker 2: from I think it was. They said it was from

747
00:36:32,960 --> 00:36:36,560
Speaker 2: unspent funds from the last fiscal year, unobligated moneies. They

748
00:36:36,560 --> 00:36:39,120
Speaker 2: may have tapped into some research and development cash. We'll

749
00:36:39,160 --> 00:36:41,359
Speaker 2: see how that plays out. But that gets us through

750
00:36:41,440 --> 00:36:44,520
Speaker 2: one pay cycle. So you're two weeks until the next

751
00:36:44,560 --> 00:36:48,120
Speaker 2: potential inflection point. Does Donald Trump keep finding cash and

752
00:36:48,160 --> 00:36:51,200
Speaker 2: the cushions, as you say here, to keep the military

753
00:36:51,239 --> 00:36:53,279
Speaker 2: paid because we can keep this going on for a

754
00:36:53,360 --> 00:36:54,520
Speaker 2: long time if he wants.

755
00:36:55,600 --> 00:36:55,839
Speaker 6: Yeah.

756
00:36:56,040 --> 00:36:58,400
Speaker 14: I mean, when you think eight billions cash and the cushions,

757
00:36:58,400 --> 00:37:01,400
Speaker 14: that's like, you know, I'm jaded, obvious in regards to

758
00:37:01,520 --> 00:37:06,359
Speaker 14: federal the federal government in general. But maybe I do

759
00:37:06,440 --> 00:37:09,480
Speaker 14: think though, when when the open enrollment does happen, and

760
00:37:09,520 --> 00:37:11,160
Speaker 14: I'm sure you've been talking about this a lot on

761
00:37:11,200 --> 00:37:13,719
Speaker 14: the show over the last couple of weeks, that is

762
00:37:13,760 --> 00:37:16,880
Speaker 14: going to show people what they're because that's going to

763
00:37:16,880 --> 00:37:20,000
Speaker 14: be the private sector kind of pushing what the rates

764
00:37:20,040 --> 00:37:23,520
Speaker 14: are going to be. I think that's going that's like, really,

765
00:37:23,520 --> 00:37:25,480
Speaker 14: that's when people are going to not pull it twenty

766
00:37:25,560 --> 00:37:28,040
Speaker 14: one percent. That's going to be, you know, and I

767
00:37:28,080 --> 00:37:31,399
Speaker 14: think that the military getting paid, so two weeks from now,

768
00:37:31,480 --> 00:37:33,720
Speaker 14: that would be about the same time of that week

769
00:37:33,760 --> 00:37:36,359
Speaker 14: of the twenty eighth and the first. Maybe that all

770
00:37:36,400 --> 00:37:40,480
Speaker 14: coincides because listen, I guess he's not allowed to use

771
00:37:40,520 --> 00:37:44,040
Speaker 14: the tariff money, the tariff revenue to pay for you know,

772
00:37:44,080 --> 00:37:46,279
Speaker 14: people getting paid. I think there's a legal issue there,

773
00:37:46,320 --> 00:37:49,479
Speaker 14: so you can't use that, but you can't reappropriate money. Yes,

774
00:37:49,520 --> 00:37:51,160
Speaker 14: it happens all the time, which is going to be

775
00:37:51,160 --> 00:37:52,080
Speaker 14: more and more difficult.

776
00:37:54,000 --> 00:37:57,319
Speaker 13: And Ashley, we're starting to hear some Republicans even mention

777
00:37:57,440 --> 00:38:00,719
Speaker 13: the prospect of this lasting through Thanksgiving.

778
00:38:01,040 --> 00:38:02,560
Speaker 3: I mean, at what point.

779
00:38:02,320 --> 00:38:03,719
Speaker 13: Do we think that there will start to be some

780
00:38:03,760 --> 00:38:05,000
Speaker 13: political consequences.

781
00:38:05,040 --> 00:38:08,120
Speaker 9: One has to imagine that this shut down.

782
00:38:08,040 --> 00:38:12,359
Speaker 13: Overtaking many of the Thanksgiving how Thanksgiving headlines has at

783
00:38:12,400 --> 00:38:17,480
Speaker 13: some point exert some political pressure on one of these sides, right, I.

784
00:38:17,440 --> 00:38:20,920
Speaker 14: Mean, God forbid this happens through Then again, I think

785
00:38:21,000 --> 00:38:23,840
Speaker 14: that people are going to get tired of the daily

786
00:38:23,880 --> 00:38:27,319
Speaker 14: press conferences from both sides saying the other ones to blame, like,

787
00:38:27,520 --> 00:38:28,279
Speaker 14: I'm tired of it.

788
00:38:28,320 --> 00:38:30,400
Speaker 6: I'm sure you're tired of it. I'm sure the American

789
00:38:30,440 --> 00:38:31,319
Speaker 6: people are tired of it.

790
00:38:31,880 --> 00:38:35,920
Speaker 14: So I think that there is there does have to

791
00:38:35,960 --> 00:38:40,080
Speaker 14: be a tipping point of when people have pain, and

792
00:38:40,120 --> 00:38:44,240
Speaker 14: so financial pain, and if the president continues to bail

793
00:38:44,320 --> 00:38:47,560
Speaker 14: out kind of the DoD or FAA or TSA, whatever

794
00:38:47,600 --> 00:38:50,239
Speaker 14: it's going to be, that takes off less pressure. So

795
00:38:50,760 --> 00:38:52,960
Speaker 14: I just don't think people can lose their paychecks for

796
00:38:53,280 --> 00:38:56,600
Speaker 14: maybe one cycle is the max you can do. But listen,

797
00:38:56,800 --> 00:38:59,279
Speaker 14: there's a lot of people that are living paycheck to

798
00:38:59,280 --> 00:39:01,600
Speaker 14: paycheck that this it's just not something they're able to do,

799
00:39:01,800 --> 00:39:03,799
Speaker 14: and we're messing with people's lives at this point. It's

800
00:39:03,840 --> 00:39:05,520
Speaker 14: ridiculous on both sides.

801
00:39:05,600 --> 00:39:09,920
Speaker 2: Well, at what point, actually do Republicans need to get

802
00:39:09,960 --> 00:39:14,160
Speaker 2: more involved in the issue of Obamacare subsidies, realizing that

803
00:39:14,200 --> 00:39:15,920
Speaker 2: you know, this has been a big sticking point. They

804
00:39:15,920 --> 00:39:18,120
Speaker 2: don't want to be forced to the table on this,

805
00:39:18,200 --> 00:39:21,160
Speaker 2: and you don't want to conflate the issue with government funding.

806
00:39:21,200 --> 00:39:21,680
Speaker 3: I get that.

807
00:39:21,719 --> 00:39:24,920
Speaker 2: But as open enrollment does approach and the notices are

808
00:39:24,960 --> 00:39:27,200
Speaker 2: out and some people are saying, if premiums go up

809
00:39:27,200 --> 00:39:29,719
Speaker 2: this much, I'm just not even going to enroll and

810
00:39:29,800 --> 00:39:33,560
Speaker 2: they'll end up without health insurance, there's potential political backlash

811
00:39:33,560 --> 00:39:35,080
Speaker 2: for Republicans at some point.

812
00:39:36,120 --> 00:39:38,800
Speaker 3: Does time force everyone to the table?

813
00:39:40,040 --> 00:39:41,640
Speaker 14: Well, yeah, I mean, like, look how many weeks we

814
00:39:41,680 --> 00:39:44,080
Speaker 14: have left of the cr that we were, you know

815
00:39:44,120 --> 00:39:46,799
Speaker 14: that the Republicans were that passed the House. There's like

816
00:39:47,000 --> 00:39:48,799
Speaker 14: four weeks left, I think is what we are at

817
00:39:48,800 --> 00:39:51,839
Speaker 14: the time. But I, by the way, I don't think

818
00:39:51,840 --> 00:39:53,759
Speaker 14: the House comes back again next week. I don't think

819
00:39:53,800 --> 00:40:00,919
Speaker 14: there's anything to negotiate right now. If people are if

820
00:40:00,960 --> 00:40:04,520
Speaker 14: the subsidies, if the premium's open, a rolement happens on

821
00:40:04,560 --> 00:40:07,759
Speaker 14: November first, and those premiums are shown to go up,

822
00:40:08,480 --> 00:40:11,520
Speaker 14: that would be a tipping point. However, if it doesn't

823
00:40:11,560 --> 00:40:13,399
Speaker 14: happen that way, I don't think they have to start

824
00:40:13,440 --> 00:40:17,640
Speaker 14: Togo shay until November. I mean, Joe, you're around this

825
00:40:17,680 --> 00:40:19,400
Speaker 14: town as long as I have. I mean, it's just

826
00:40:19,520 --> 00:40:22,440
Speaker 14: like when you have something expiring December thirty first, you

827
00:40:22,520 --> 00:40:25,760
Speaker 14: start and you go out of recess to say December fifteenth.

828
00:40:25,760 --> 00:40:31,799
Speaker 6: You don't start to go shank on December first. I mean, so, yeah, well,

829
00:40:33,080 --> 00:40:35,319
Speaker 6: why do I keep doing this? Maybe we need to

830
00:40:35,360 --> 00:40:36,920
Speaker 6: go like in the arts or something.

831
00:40:39,360 --> 00:40:40,200
Speaker 3: Now we're getting warm.

832
00:40:41,920 --> 00:40:47,280
Speaker 13: Of course, another component here is just a prospect the

833
00:40:47,280 --> 00:40:50,360
Speaker 13: White House continues to dangle the prospect that just mass firings.

834
00:40:50,360 --> 00:40:54,000
Speaker 13: There was a legal setback obviously on that plan over

835
00:40:54,040 --> 00:40:57,200
Speaker 13: the last twenty four hours or so. But I mean,

836
00:40:58,600 --> 00:41:01,840
Speaker 13: how does that at some point increase some of the

837
00:41:01,880 --> 00:41:05,279
Speaker 13: political pressure on Republicans at that point and make them

838
00:41:05,400 --> 00:41:08,600
Speaker 13: have more ownership with the White House threatening these mass layoffs,

839
00:41:08,760 --> 00:41:12,160
Speaker 13: especially in places as you mentioned, like Kentucky or Florida, Virginia.

840
00:41:13,520 --> 00:41:16,280
Speaker 14: Right, Well, you say, you know they have four thousand

841
00:41:16,280 --> 00:41:20,160
Speaker 14: that obviously were paused yesterday. I'm assuming the administration will

842
00:41:20,160 --> 00:41:23,000
Speaker 14: continue to litigate this, as you know they have in

843
00:41:23,040 --> 00:41:25,160
Speaker 14: the past on various issues that go to the courts.

844
00:41:25,239 --> 00:41:29,520
Speaker 6: But when omb said they'll go up to ten thousand.

845
00:41:30,200 --> 00:41:32,400
Speaker 14: There's a part of me that has been saying we

846
00:41:32,440 --> 00:41:36,720
Speaker 14: shouldn't be surprised because the federal government being scaled back

847
00:41:36,840 --> 00:41:41,200
Speaker 14: at the kind of inflated government that it is, which

848
00:41:41,640 --> 00:41:46,440
Speaker 14: I do agree with that this is something that the

849
00:41:46,440 --> 00:41:49,359
Speaker 14: President and omb have been saying from the beginning that

850
00:41:49,400 --> 00:41:52,600
Speaker 14: they were going to do. I just don't know if

851
00:41:52,600 --> 00:41:55,239
Speaker 14: that's going to be blowback on Republicans or Democrats. Right now,

852
00:41:55,280 --> 00:41:58,919
Speaker 14: the administration feels it's going to be a blowback on Democrats.

853
00:42:00,160 --> 00:42:03,239
Speaker 3: Great, great well, Ashley Davis, thanks so much. Thanks for

854
00:42:03,320 --> 00:42:05,320
Speaker 3: listening to the Balance of Power podcast.

855
00:42:05,960 --> 00:42:09,080
Speaker 2: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify,

856
00:42:09,200 --> 00:42:11,759
Speaker 2: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find

857
00:42:11,840 --> 00:42:15,080
Speaker 2: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern

858
00:42:15,360 --> 00:42:16,880
Speaker 2: at Bloomberg dot com.