WEBVTT - Bruce Kasman Talks March PCE

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>Let's get to Bruce Cassman of JP Morgan. Bruce at

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<v Speaker 2>least has been quoting you all morning. That quote is

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<v Speaker 2>the sound that you hear as a narrative cracking. How

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<v Speaker 2>does this data inform that view?

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<v Speaker 3>Well, I think it's pretty supportive of that view on

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<v Speaker 3>a number of fronts. Obviously, the one that people have

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<v Speaker 3>been most focused on today is the inflation news, and

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<v Speaker 3>certainly we got a more distributed outcome of that. Surprise.

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<v Speaker 3>It wasn't all in the March number, but the March

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<v Speaker 3>number at point three one seven on an unrounded core

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<v Speaker 3>is still pretty darn firm. I haven't seen all of

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<v Speaker 3>the details of how that's distributed. I don't think the

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<v Speaker 3>super core services were that were that high, at least

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<v Speaker 3>what I see. But the basic point here is this

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<v Speaker 3>is no longer something you can explain as just the

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<v Speaker 3>beginning of the year pop. But I also emphasized two

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<v Speaker 3>other things. One is, as you look at the data

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<v Speaker 3>on income and spending here, we're getting very strong wage numbers,

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<v Speaker 3>and I think there's probably some pressure here on wage

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<v Speaker 3>inflation as well as there is the strong income numbers.

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<v Speaker 3>We'll see the Employment Cost Index report for the first

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<v Speaker 3>quarter next week. And then the other thing here is

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<v Speaker 3>we did have a squeeze on incomes to some degree,

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<v Speaker 3>both for taxes and higher energy prices in Q one,

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<v Speaker 3>and consumers held up pretty darn well. And one of

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<v Speaker 3>the reasons is the savings rate went down. The saving

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<v Speaker 3>is rerdy is three point two percent in March, and

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<v Speaker 3>I think that's a message that wealth effects are moving here.

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<v Speaker 3>So there's both a story here about the economy holding

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<v Speaker 3>up very well with high interest rates as well as

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<v Speaker 3>inflation fresh as being persistent. And while I don't think

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<v Speaker 3>it's right to talk about this from the point of

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<v Speaker 3>view of FED tightening, I think the case for FED

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<v Speaker 3>easing here is pretty is pretty small anytime soon. We'll

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<v Speaker 3>see what we are six months from now, but certainly

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<v Speaker 3>the Fed's going to have to change its tune about

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<v Speaker 3>its view that there's a fair amount of easing that's

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<v Speaker 3>coming down the road.

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<v Speaker 1>I would just add that real personal spending actually increased

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<v Speaker 1>to zero point five percent from zero point four percent,

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<v Speaker 1>even though it's expected to fall bruce. Given the fact

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<v Speaker 1>that we're seeing or hearing that sound of the narrative cracking.

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<v Speaker 2>What's the new narrative.

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<v Speaker 1>Is it just no rate cuts in your case.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, I think the clear part of the new narrative

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<v Speaker 3>is high for long on rates. The question is where

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<v Speaker 3>does that take us, And we've been actually struggling with that.

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<v Speaker 3>We have kind of two scenarios we think are both reasonable.

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<v Speaker 3>One we've been calling boil the frog, which is high

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<v Speaker 3>interest rates do weigh on performance. They do start to

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<v Speaker 3>create vulnerability on balance sheets, particularly the business sector side,

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<v Speaker 3>and that causes problems for us, not now, but maybe

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<v Speaker 3>six or twelve months from now. The second one is

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<v Speaker 3>we find out that we actually can live with higher

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<v Speaker 3>interest rates, that we've had better supply side performance, the

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<v Speaker 3>economy is in an underlying resilient position, and that actually

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<v Speaker 3>this is a new world and we should understand that

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<v Speaker 3>the economy has higher interest rates and is sustainable. Between

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<v Speaker 3>those two right now, I think there's really support for

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<v Speaker 3>both in some of the things we're seeing, and we're

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<v Speaker 3>not trying to take a strong call on what the

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<v Speaker 3>new narrative is going to be.

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<v Speaker 1>You do, though, think that there is going to be

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<v Speaker 1>a new tone from the Federal Reserve next Wednesday when

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<v Speaker 1>they give press conference. What do you think is the

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<v Speaker 1>right way to weigh the risks right now? How much

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<v Speaker 1>should they shift away from what we saw in December.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, I think you have to remember that the May

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<v Speaker 3>meeting is not a forecast round meeting. The main meeting

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<v Speaker 3>is not one where we got a lot of new

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<v Speaker 3>information since the last one. We really get a lot

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<v Speaker 3>more with two payroll reports to CPI reports up to

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<v Speaker 3>the June meeting, So I think this is a bit

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<v Speaker 3>of a wavestation. I think what Powell is going to

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<v Speaker 3>do is he's going to basically say he's lost a

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<v Speaker 3>lot of confidence in the views in terms of where

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<v Speaker 3>inflation is going, but they haven't really shifted those views

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<v Speaker 3>in a material way. He's going to downplay what the

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<v Speaker 3>SEP in March was telling us we still had three

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<v Speaker 3>cuts for the year, and he's going to look to

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<v Speaker 3>June for the bigger shift in the FED. And obviously

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<v Speaker 3>we'll see that in the light of what we get

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<v Speaker 3>in the next two sets of readings on both CPI

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<v Speaker 3>and payrolls.

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<v Speaker 2>Just got a note some reaction this from Inflation Insight.

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<v Speaker 2>The title of the note is just core pcee few.

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<v Speaker 2>I think a lot of people feel that way based

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<v Speaker 2>on the information we got yesterday. There was a risk

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<v Speaker 2>a big upside surprise this morning, which is why we're

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<v Speaker 2>basically saying that inline feels like a downside surprise relative

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<v Speaker 2>to where expectations went to that shift. Tirre and yields

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<v Speaker 2>yesterdayknew heights for twenty twenty four this morning pulling back,

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<v Speaker 2>particularly on a tenure, by four basis points about four

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<v Speaker 2>to sixty six this morning. Bruce, I'm thinking, who else

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<v Speaker 2>is saying few this morning. It's officials in the Ministry

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<v Speaker 2>of Finance over in Japan. If they're looking at dolly

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<v Speaker 2>En staying up at one fifty six't eighty seven and

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<v Speaker 2>approaching one fifty seven, the last thing they needed was

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<v Speaker 2>an upside surprise. Bruce, Can we take this global? What

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<v Speaker 2>are global central banks finance ministries around the world staring

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<v Speaker 2>down the barrel of this resilient strong dollar. What are

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<v Speaker 2>they going to do well?

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<v Speaker 3>First point to make here, which I think is really important,

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<v Speaker 3>is we're seeing a world in which growth is broadening

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<v Speaker 3>its base, and I think it is starting to take

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<v Speaker 3>some of the weak links, including Japan and Western Europe,

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<v Speaker 3>into a better position. I think in terms of what

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<v Speaker 3>central banks are doing, there is more differentiation. We think

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<v Speaker 3>the European inflation pictures looking a lot better better than

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<v Speaker 3>the US, so I think there is some room for easing.

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<v Speaker 3>As you noted, Minister Finance is probably breathing a sigh

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<v Speaker 3>of release. I'm not sure they're that happy with the

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<v Speaker 3>way the BOJ talked to US overnight. They were considerably

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<v Speaker 3>more dubbish than we expect it in terms of their guidance.

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<v Speaker 3>But I think the basic message here is you're going

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<v Speaker 3>to get some easing in Western Europe. I think the

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<v Speaker 3>BOJ is going to be patient here, but as you say,

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<v Speaker 3>the end is going to continue to be under downward

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<v Speaker 3>pressure relative to the dollar. I think the pressure will build.

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<v Speaker 3>I think ultimately Japan is going to do more and

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<v Speaker 3>the economy is going to do better than people expect.

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<v Speaker 3>And i'd say that more broadly about the global economy,

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<v Speaker 3>that they'll do less on easing, the BOJ is tightening

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<v Speaker 3>and we'll get better global growth, and people anticipate at

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<v Speaker 3>this point.

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<v Speaker 1>I know this is a difficult question and everyone has

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<v Speaker 1>a slightly different answer, and some people say it's not

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<v Speaker 1>relevant at all, But where are we in this cycle

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<v Speaker 1>in the economic cycle. If you're talking about a broadening

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<v Speaker 1>out and affirming of Europe of Japan at a time

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<v Speaker 1>when a lot of other people are talking about US

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<v Speaker 1>exceptionalism and the potential for late cycle types of behavior.

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<v Speaker 3>So I think we can come back to this tension

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<v Speaker 3>on high for long, And I think what's embedded in

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<v Speaker 3>the high for long is an inflation dynamic, even once

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<v Speaker 3>we've taken out the highs that we had in twenty

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<v Speaker 3>one and twenty two, and a position in terms of

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<v Speaker 3>monetary policy labor markets that screams late cycle. But I

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<v Speaker 3>think what the pandemic has done is it's both created

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<v Speaker 3>that dynamic as well as a far more positive dynamic

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<v Speaker 3>in terms of where the positioning in terms of leverage,

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<v Speaker 3>durable spending, profit margins, things like that that are normally

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<v Speaker 3>late cycle signals that type monetary policy is going to

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<v Speaker 3>do damage. So I think we're in a kind of

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<v Speaker 3>a weird new world of late cycle inflation in central

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<v Speaker 3>banks and early mid cycle private sector behavior. How that

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<v Speaker 3>plays out, I'm not feeling very confident right now. As

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<v Speaker 3>I said, I think there's this possibility of the boil

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<v Speaker 3>the frog and we gradually grind to a problem. But

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<v Speaker 3>there is a possibility we can sustain this for a

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<v Speaker 3>while longer while being a.

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<v Speaker 2>Few years interesting. Bruce, Thank you, Sir Bruce Cassman. There

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<v Speaker 2>of JP Morgan