Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along
Speaker 2: with Lisa Bromwitz and Amrie Hordert. Join us each day
Speaker 2: for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics
Speaker 2: from our global headquarters in New York City. We are
Speaker 2: live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to nine
Speaker 2: am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or
Speaker 2: anywhere else you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg
Speaker 2: Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app. All eyes on tomorrow's
Speaker 2: CPI print, the first major day to release in weeks,
Speaker 2: expected to show inflationary precious mounting on the economy. The
Speaker 2: former Boston Fed president Eric Rosenngrand has seen it all.
Speaker 2: He joins us now for more. Eric, welcome back to
Speaker 2: the program Sir, What are you anticipating to see? What
Speaker 2: do you expect to see tomorrow morning at eight thirty
Speaker 2: Easton time.
Speaker 3: I'm expecting to see that both the CPI and the
Speaker 3: core CPI are at three point one percent. So for
Speaker 3: the overall CPI it was at two point nine percent before.
Speaker 3: That's a bit of an increase. It partly reflects some
Speaker 3: of the pressures coming from tariffs continuing to flow through
Speaker 3: so goods like apparel.
Speaker 4: Furniture, sporting goods.
Speaker 3: But it's also that we're seeing food prices go up
Speaker 3: in a variety of areas, and I think that indicates
Speaker 3: that we're not getting much progress on inflation, that this
Speaker 3: report actually is going to be a continuation of numbers
Speaker 3: that are at three percent or higher rather than moving
Speaker 3: down towards two percent. So that is a challenge for
Speaker 3: the Fed as it tries to weigh how much emphasis
Speaker 3: to put on inflation and how much emphasis to put
Speaker 3: on what's happening in the labor market.
Speaker 2: Well, Eric, let's stay on that theme. Are the sources
Speaker 2: of inflation the this Federal Reserve can ignore.
Speaker 3: I don't think it should ignore. The labor market, while
Speaker 3: it has been softer, is still fairly close to the
Speaker 3: Fed's estimate of full employment. And in some of the areas,
Speaker 3: both in food prices, we've seen cost of electricity going up.
Speaker 3: Some of those trends I think are something we have
Speaker 3: to keep an eye on. And while there have been
Speaker 3: some negative pressures, for example, shelters come in a little
Speaker 3: bit better, natural gas is likely to come in a
Speaker 3: little bit better. I think the overall package. I mean,
Speaker 3: we've been above the two percent inflation target for over
Speaker 3: four years, so at some point the FED has to
Speaker 3: start seeing some improvement inflation. So I would not be
Speaker 3: somebody who would view this as because it's partly coming
Speaker 3: from tariffs, that it should be ignored.
Speaker 5: Eric is a lot of this inflation policy induced, well.
Speaker 3: I think it is partly policy induced. It's certainly fiscal
Speaker 3: policy induced. Tariffs definitely have an impact on what the
Speaker 3: reported prices are going to be. I would also say
Speaker 3: that the immigration policy is a policy that probably means
Speaker 3: that some of the food prices have gone up as
Speaker 3: labor costs have gone up for people that are trying
Speaker 3: to harvest crops, and fruits and vegetables have been an
Speaker 3: area in particular where we've seen rising prices. In terms
Speaker 3: of monetary policy, I think the question is how much
Speaker 3: of the pressures that we're seeing have been accommodated. So
Speaker 3: the FED thinks it's restrictive, but if you think that
Speaker 3: the economy is more productive and that AI may contribute
Speaker 3: to that productivity, then it's a little unclear that we
Speaker 3: should be going back to the same interest rate that
Speaker 3: we were at prior to the pandemic. So the summary
Speaker 3: of economic projections that the Fed puts out is assuming
Speaker 3: that we'll see something Fed funds rate in the long
Speaker 3: run closer to three percent, So that would indicate a
Speaker 3: lot more room. But the fact that we've seen so
Speaker 3: little progress on inflation for the last six months indicates
Speaker 3: that you shouldn't be so confident that you know exactly
Speaker 3: what the real interest rate ought to be.
Speaker 6: Well.
Speaker 5: Not only that, the fact of the matter is the
Speaker 5: FED will be sitting down and they won't have the
Speaker 5: labor market report. They're just going to have this inflation report.
Speaker 5: Do you think it's a mistake if the Fed cuts
Speaker 5: interest rates next week?
Speaker 3: I think that given the softness and labor market, I
Speaker 3: can understand a twenty five basis point cut. I would
Speaker 3: highlight that while we're getting the CPI report, a lot
Speaker 3: of government workers left their jobs at the end of September,
Speaker 3: and a lot of the source data may not be available,
Speaker 3: So this CPI report probably is going to be using
Speaker 3: more estimated results than normal. It will be interesting if
Speaker 3: the report highlights that this data may not be as reliable,
Speaker 3: which means it could be noisier, and if it's noisier,
Speaker 3: it could be a surprise on the side or the downside.
Speaker 3: But it just says as we continue to have pressures
Speaker 3: on statistical organizations having enough people to gather the data,
Speaker 3: that this data may become noisier and harder to rely on.
Speaker 2: Eric, forgive the snark, but how reliable was the data
Speaker 2: when we had it?
Speaker 4: As it?
Speaker 2: Sorry, how reliable was the data when we had it?
Speaker 3: I think the CPI report was a pretty good report. So,
Speaker 3: I mean, they had significant amount of surveys across the country.
Speaker 3: They have had to cut back over time on the
Speaker 3: amount of survey work that they do. They've closed some offices,
Speaker 3: so I think that over the last few years it
Speaker 3: has deteriorated a little bit. But I think if we
Speaker 3: continue to be cutting back on statistical agencies, it'll get
Speaker 3: more unreliable as we go forward.
Speaker 2: Stay with us. More Bloomberg surveillance coming up after this.
Speaker 2: So here's the latest this morning, the President imposing significant
Speaker 2: sanctions on Russia, targeting the country's major oil producers. In
Speaker 2: London off the back of these movest includes Sara Piankie
Speaker 2: of Evakorasi joined US Now for more Sarah, consequences and objectives.
Speaker 2: Let's talk about objectives first. Does this get the president,
Speaker 2: the leader of Russia to the table.
Speaker 1: I will see.
Speaker 6: You know, obviously Trump has been very frustrated with his
Speaker 6: inability to you know, kind of make this happen and
Speaker 6: settle this down. He's obviously looking quite you know, really
Speaker 6: anxious to make progress on this. Certainly this is a
Speaker 6: key step. This has always been sort of one thing
Speaker 6: that folks have thought would bring a Putin more to
Speaker 6: the table. But we're gonna have to see how longed holts,
Speaker 6: how serious it is, how effective it is, and you know,
Speaker 6: until we see how this plays out, I think we
Speaker 6: should be judgment Sarah.
Speaker 5: How do you think this is going to play into
Speaker 5: the trade talks the President's going to have with Shijiping
Speaker 5: in South Korea?
Speaker 1: Well, it's interesting.
Speaker 6: I think that the United States and China have a
Speaker 6: lot of other issues to.
Speaker 1: Focus on right now.
Speaker 6: The anxiety and the escalation has been around something different,
Speaker 6: much more about rare earths and export controls and trying
Speaker 6: to keep these tariffs down. So it's a lot to
Speaker 6: really try to introduce this and to get China to
Speaker 6: take steps on this. I think If the agenda expands
Speaker 6: to this in an aggressive way, China will come back
Speaker 6: with questions about Taiwan, and I think it's.
Speaker 1: Not very likely that we'll see a lot of progress here.
Speaker 5: The trip administration is weighing export restrictions against China when
Speaker 5: it comes to critical software. I asked Everett eisenstat this
Speaker 5: in the last hour, and I love to get your take.
Speaker 5: Is this tangible policy or is this a new leverage
Speaker 5: point that the US wants to use just for negotiating tactic.
Speaker 1: Well, we've certainly heard that in the government.
Speaker 6: Everybody's been asked to sharpen their pencils and to find
Speaker 6: different aspects of things in the export control space that
Speaker 6: would really make China anxious. So look, I think if
Speaker 6: that's where the talks go, we're going to see China
Speaker 6: push back pretty hard on rare earths. I think they
Speaker 6: feel very aggressive and confident right now in that space,
Speaker 6: with good reason. So I think if we're in a
Speaker 6: space in this talk where we are introducing new things,
Speaker 6: that's not a great sign. Perhaps it will help some
Speaker 6: with leverage, but I think we all have to watch
Speaker 6: carefully because I think China is feeling quite bullish on this,
Speaker 6: and the risk is really that we overplay our hands.
Speaker 5: Do you think then that China has more leverage going
Speaker 5: in than the United States does?
Speaker 1: I think both of these.
Speaker 6: Great economic powers have both have leverage. And I think
Speaker 6: what's unique is that when the Trump administration negotiated last
Speaker 6: time with the Chinese, they didn't find that there wasn't
Speaker 6: this dynamic in the conversation, and so I think it
Speaker 6: has been a little bit of an on the job
Speaker 6: learning for some in the administration that China is willing
Speaker 6: to play as aggressively.
Speaker 7: So I don't know.
Speaker 5: They used rare earths back in May. Are you talking
Speaker 5: about when it was just down to agricultural purchases in
Speaker 5: Trump won?
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm talking about in Trump one point zero.
Speaker 6: I think one of the reasons that the Chinese came
Speaker 6: out so strong with rare earths this time is they
Speaker 6: found last spring it worked really well for them, and
Speaker 6: so I think they are I think they were hoping
Speaker 6: to get more out of the talks than they saw coming,
Speaker 6: and I think it was pretty explicit strategy. I'm not
Speaker 6: quite sure they meant to overheat things quite so much, but.
Speaker 1: I don't know, you know, I think both sides have.
Speaker 6: Something the other team wants, and when you're in that
Speaker 6: situation and baling out both relationships, there's there's risk for escalation.
Speaker 2: Stay with us more Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.
Speaker 2: Another name, of course, is Tesla profit falling rising casts
Speaker 2: undermining a record quarter of a vehicle sales, the company
Speaker 2: reporting adjusted earnings down thirty one percent from a year ago.
Speaker 2: Dan Ives of Webbush maintaining and outperform rating on the
Speaker 2: stock with a six hundred dollars price target, saying we
Speaker 2: continue to believe Tesla could reach a two trillion dollar
Speaker 2: market camp in early twenty six in a ballcase scenario,
Speaker 2: and three trillion by the end of twenty six as
Speaker 2: the golden AI chapter takes hold at Tesla. Dan Ives
Speaker 2: joins us now for more Dan how relevant is the
Speaker 2: car making business at Tesla to this stock and how
Speaker 2: relevant should it be?
Speaker 8: Looker means foundational relative to you know, obviously ward are
Speaker 8: doing in the quarter and of course generating cash in
Speaker 8: the business. But the reality is the future is around AI,
Speaker 8: it's around autonomous, it's around robotics.
Speaker 4: I think it's the most important chapter in the history.
Speaker 8: From musk intest so That's why Musk now wartime CEO
Speaker 8: and obviously in new paid package.
Speaker 4: I think that's what investors are focused on any sell
Speaker 4: off here.
Speaker 8: Look, we view autonomous alone is worth the trillion dollars
Speaker 8: of the story. This will when with the video, be
Speaker 8: too the best. You know what I view physical AI
Speaker 8: plays in the market.
Speaker 2: Don I think a lot of people might agree with you.
Speaker 2: The autonomous could be worth a trilly onto someone. It's
Speaker 2: about whether it is for Tesla. What can you point
Speaker 2: to that demonstrates success. What are the metrics you're following
Speaker 2: that justify evaluation this company currently carries.
Speaker 8: Yeah, first off, I mean robotoxin. We've seen it in
Speaker 8: Austin ourselves. You know, I think that you have eight
Speaker 8: to ten cities by the end of the year, and
Speaker 8: we ultimately believe thirty cities in the first half. Then
Speaker 8: you ultimately will what's happened there, the geofns area, the
Speaker 8: safety driver getting removed. It's my view this is all
Speaker 8: heading toward level four right in terms of when you
Speaker 8: think about autonomous and what that means. Is no company
Speaker 8: in the world byd you know, pick any name out there,
Speaker 8: we'll have the scaling scope to compete with Musk and Tesla.
Speaker 8: When it comes to autonomous and cybercabs, that's the future.
Speaker 8: And then optimists, you know, I believe it's going to
Speaker 8: be you know, a key part of this story. That's
Speaker 8: how you're going to get to three trillion dollars market
Speaker 8: next twelve to eighteen months.
Speaker 5: But scaling competition is it? This space dan already looking
Speaker 5: very crowded.
Speaker 8: Look I'd say I mean crowded in terms of Waimo
Speaker 8: being first mover advantage, but they're in what five cities,
Speaker 8: you know, relative to From a scale perspective, I mean,
Speaker 8: I think Tesla is going to own eighty percent of
Speaker 8: the autonomous market and that's why from an investor perspective, Look,
Speaker 8: if you hate Tesla.
Speaker 4: You continue to hate it today, I get it.
Speaker 8: But the reality is that this is a golden age
Speaker 8: for Tesla looking ahead from autonomous to robotics, and that's
Speaker 8: why you talk about November sixth, what's going to be
Speaker 8: the most pay package and then they're going to own
Speaker 8: obviously a big piece of XAI. This is now the
Speaker 8: AI transformation happening in Tesla. Cars obviously are important, but
Speaker 8: that just sets the siege for I think it's gonna
Speaker 8: be historical move.
Speaker 4: Let's talk about the pay package.
Speaker 5: Elon Musk has a very colorful language yesterday on the
Speaker 5: call when it comes to the proxy advisors of some
Speaker 5: of these institutional investors. What does he need to achieve
Speaker 5: in order to get that headline trillion dollar pay package?
Speaker 8: Yeah, and look and go back to like the first
Speaker 8: pay package, the one that's right now caught up in Delaware,
Speaker 8: Like he did everything and more, and it just comes
Speaker 8: down to, like I agree in the fact that the
Speaker 8: biggest asset for Tessa's Musk Musk is Tesa Tessa's Musk. Look,
Speaker 8: you look, obviously some of those are very ambitious in
Speaker 8: terms of where they're ultimately going to hit in terms
Speaker 8: of the targets. But I think mid to high targets
Speaker 8: are hit able, and that's why incentivize him. Make him
Speaker 8: wartime CEO, that's what he's doing. That's whereas laser focused,
Speaker 8: you know, versus maybe some of the dark days when
Speaker 8: he was a TRUA administration. Obviously some of the brand damage.
Speaker 8: And I just think like betting against Musk has been
Speaker 8: the wrong move again again, and I think that's why
Speaker 8: shareholders overwhelming we will.
Speaker 2: Approve this let's just stand the pay package. What's the
Speaker 2: opposition to the pay package. What's your understanding of what
Speaker 2: it is? Besides the fact that it's subsurdly lines that
Speaker 2: kind of doesn't matter. What's the opposition to it? What
Speaker 2: don't people like about it?
Speaker 8: Look, I mean, obviously it's just you know, the view
Speaker 8: from an excess perspective, the actual numbers.
Speaker 4: You know, why do they actually have to do this?
Speaker 8: But I think to some extent it's investors that don't
Speaker 8: understand the Tesla story. And I think any of the
Speaker 8: core believers, any of the core followers, understand that the
Speaker 8: future of Tesla lies in Musk being CEO. And I
Speaker 8: think from pay package perspective, given the targets said high bars,
Speaker 8: that's where you want Musk to You don't want to
Speaker 8: set warl bars.
Speaker 4: And I think that's I think the board stepped up,
Speaker 4: Robin stepped up.
Speaker 8: This is the right pay baggage at the right time
Speaker 8: for what's going to be what i've us a golden
Speaker 8: chapter for Tessel.
Speaker 2: Stay with us. More Bloomberg surveillance coming up after this.
Speaker 2: The S and P five hundred achieving thirty three record
Speaker 2: highs this year, boosting bank profits and pushing the Wall
Speaker 2: Street bonus pool to new heights. The New York State
Speaker 2: Controller Tom Dinapolis saying, quote, well, uncertainty remains around interest rates, inflation,
Speaker 2: and the broader economy. Wall Street looks with another strong year.
Speaker 2: Tom joins us. Now from more, Tom, welcome to the program, sir.
Speaker 2: It's good to get some time with you. Let's just
Speaker 2: talk about how big those numbers are so far this
Speaker 2: year and what kind of benefit that provides to the
Speaker 2: state of New York.
Speaker 7: Now, the numbers are big, and we look at this closely.
Speaker 9: We monitor it because obviously revenue for New York State
Speaker 9: and New York City significantly is derived from what's happening
Speaker 9: on Wall Street. So we always do an annual report
Speaker 9: this time of year on the securities industry in New
Speaker 9: York City. What we find for the first half of
Speaker 9: this year profits of thirty billion dollars. So when you
Speaker 9: consider last year, for the total years about forty nine billion,
Speaker 9: we could be headed for a record. If the current
Speaker 9: trends continue, we could be talking about profits of sixty
Speaker 9: billion dollars this year.
Speaker 2: Tom, is there a risk that we take that for granted?
Speaker 2: As you know, and I'm sure you're following. We've got
Speaker 2: a mayoral race here in New York City, and at
Speaker 2: the top of the pose is a socialist. Now, Tom,
Speaker 2: it's amazing that in the beating heart of American capitalism
Speaker 2: we can have a socialist map. It's not something we've
Speaker 2: risk taking for granted.
Speaker 9: Well, look, New York City, New York State is quite resilient,
Speaker 9: you know.
Speaker 7: So between what.
Speaker 9: May happen in New York City what's happening in Washington,
Speaker 9: New York City is going to stay strong. What I
Speaker 9: think is key in all of this is that New
Speaker 9: York must continue to be the global capital for finance.
Speaker 9: And what I always say to my friends and neighbors
Speaker 9: in New York, however you feel about Wall Street, good
Speaker 9: or band, the reality is the services that we provide
Speaker 9: to the people of our city in our state significantly
Speaker 9: rely on the profits of Wall Street, the business taxes,
Speaker 9: the personal li ink of taxes that are generating the
Speaker 9: employment that's generated. So whatever is going on in the
Speaker 9: larger politics, we want these jobs to be continued to
Speaker 9: be located in New York. There's still more jobs in
Speaker 9: securities industry in New York City than any other city
Speaker 9: in the country. We've seen last year, we saw some
Speaker 9: growth in jobs in New York. This year it looks
Speaker 9: like it might be a slight retrenchment. But this is
Speaker 9: a win for New York State. And no matter who's
Speaker 9: going to be the mayor, no matter who's the president,
Speaker 9: no matter who's the state controller, wall Street, we want
Speaker 9: this to be the home right here in New York
Speaker 9: because we all benefit when Wall Street does well.
Speaker 5: Wall Street does. But does a future mayor Mundani want
Speaker 5: it to be? Do you think he's a possible threat
Speaker 5: to the securities industry's tax revenue if these individuals want
Speaker 5: to leave New York.
Speaker 9: Well, look, we already have an issue of tax payer
Speaker 9: migration having nothing to do with the current mayor's race,
Speaker 9: you know.
Speaker 4: That.
Speaker 9: Being said, when we look at our revenue picture, we
Speaker 9: do a monthly cash report, we call it revenue coming
Speaker 9: into the state, we continue to have tax collections, largely
Speaker 9: because of personal income tax revenue exceeding projections. So I
Speaker 9: know there's a lot of folks predicting gloom and doom,
Speaker 9: but so far, actually the money because of strong personal
Speaker 9: income tax collection coming in higher than projected, and solely
Speaker 9: to the extent that again we don't.
Speaker 7: The election has not happened yet, But if the new.
Speaker 9: Mayor has some ambitious goals as far as addressing or
Speaker 9: affordability more services that need to be paid for, you know,
Speaker 9: I think whoever the mayor is is going to want
Speaker 9: to see Wall Street to be profitable and strong and
Speaker 9: benefit from the taxes that will derive from that.
Speaker 5: You also have come out with a statement about Elon
Speaker 5: Musk's latest trillion dollar paper polls. So you're saying it's excessive,
Speaker 5: But do you think Tesla would be.
Speaker 4: Successful without Musk?
Speaker 5: And there's a number of hurdles he needs to jump
Speaker 5: through to even look at this kind of pay package.
Speaker 9: Well, obviously Musk has been a very key ingredient in Tesla.
Speaker 9: I won't dispute that, but our view has been that
Speaker 9: the board oversight has not been as independent or as
Speaker 9: stringent as it should be.
Speaker 7: How many billions or trillions does one person need to make?
Speaker 9: And you know, my concern is that the compensation package
Speaker 9: may have some broad milestones in there. There really should
Speaker 9: be more clear metrics and you know, to really justify
Speaker 9: this very very generous payout. I mean, how much how
Speaker 9: much money does one person need? And you know, it's
Speaker 9: been very clear from my perspective that some of the
Speaker 9: other activities that mister Musk has been involved in over
Speaker 9: recent months has taken away from his focus on Tesla.
Speaker 9: You've seen a lot of volatility in certainly in terms
Speaker 9: of the stock price. That's a concern to us as
Speaker 9: a shareholder. So we really would like to see more
Speaker 9: independence on the board. We're going to vote against the
Speaker 9: compensation package, going to vote against the board members who
Speaker 9: are up.
Speaker 7: I think that will make the company.
Speaker 9: Stronger if they would take some of our recommendations to heart.
Speaker 5: If they take more recommendations to heart, would you vote
Speaker 5: for it?
Speaker 4: Oh?
Speaker 9: Sure, if they If they come around to our point
Speaker 9: of view in terms of independence and more clear metrics
Speaker 9: in terms of what kind of milestones would have to
Speaker 9: be achieved for compensation package as generous as are proposing,
Speaker 9: we'd certainly reconsider. But you know, I think in terms
Speaker 9: of the dollar amount at this point, and when you
Speaker 9: would look at the concentration of stock ownership that mister
Speaker 9: Musk would have, we'd really continue to diminish any role
Speaker 9: that any other shareholders would have in say of the company.
Speaker 7: You know, I think those are those are concerns.
Speaker 9: My guess is they are not going to come around
Speaker 9: to our point of view between now and November sixth,
Speaker 9: when they have the meeting.
Speaker 2: So I'm going to just press you on the number.
Speaker 2: Why is the number itself relevant? Surely, if we establish
Speaker 2: the appropriate metrics and they're achieved, shareholders benefit from that.
Speaker 2: Why is the number so important?
Speaker 9: Well, look, I think we live in a time where
Speaker 9: people are very concerned about income inequality, and you know,
Speaker 9: despite the challenging times, I mean, you know, coming out
Speaker 9: of COVID, still a lot of people in need. When
Speaker 9: you see the excessive compensation package, I mean, you know,
Speaker 9: credit to mister Musk, He's already one of the richest
Speaker 9: men in the world. How much more rich does one
Speaker 9: person have to be? And you know, if he is
Speaker 9: going to continue to be focused on some of these
Speaker 9: other activities that will divert from Tesla, it seems that
Speaker 9: we're not rewarding performance. Instead, we're rewarding power personality. I
Speaker 9: don't think that's the smartest way for Tesla to be managed.
Speaker 2: Well, I guess the way some people might count to
Speaker 2: that Tom is that if he doesn't pay enough attention
Speaker 2: to the company, he won't hit the metrics anyway, and
Speaker 2: he won't get the money. And isn't this about addressing
Speaker 2: that anyway, because ultimately what you want for him to
Speaker 2: pay more attention to the company.
Speaker 7: How do we get that doing that?
Speaker 4: Well?
Speaker 9: I mean I would question the metrics, you know, I
Speaker 9: think there needs to be more specificity than we've seen
Speaker 9: thus far. And this is a board that, you know,
Speaker 9: from my perspective, is operated more as a captive group
Speaker 9: rather than a truly independent board in terms of their
Speaker 9: oversight role.
Speaker 7: So I think it's a combination of more clear metrics.
Speaker 9: And the compensation package, and I'd like to see more
Speaker 9: independence on the part of the board in terms of
Speaker 9: their oversight of the company generally. I mean, obviously he
Speaker 9: is very key to the company, but the company will
Speaker 9: hopefully be strong enough to survive one person, right who
Speaker 9: knows what the future is going to bring. And I
Speaker 9: think that's where again, appropriate compensation and strong independent board oversight,
Speaker 9: that's what is needed here.
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, bringing you the best
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