1 00:00:01,639 --> 00:00:06,200 Speaker 1: Now from our nation's capital. This is Bloomberg's Sound On. 2 00:00:07,120 --> 00:00:09,320 Speaker 1: It's clear that inflation is a challenge. It is a 3 00:00:09,320 --> 00:00:12,799 Speaker 1: global challenge. It is not a good picture here. Americans 4 00:00:12,840 --> 00:00:14,960 Speaker 1: are squeezed by the cost of the money. It's been 5 00:00:15,000 --> 00:00:19,240 Speaker 1: true for years. Bloomberg Sound On Politics, Policy and Perspective 6 00:00:19,360 --> 00:00:23,120 Speaker 1: from DC's top name. We were getting ready to win 7 00:00:23,200 --> 00:00:27,520 Speaker 1: this election. Frankly, we did win this election. He is 8 00:00:27,560 --> 00:00:31,800 Speaker 1: the one person at the center of the story. Once again, 9 00:00:32,040 --> 00:00:34,800 Speaker 1: I will assert my Fifth Amendment right to decline to 10 00:00:34,840 --> 00:00:38,959 Speaker 1: answer your question. Bloomberg Sound On with Joe Matthew on 11 00:00:39,120 --> 00:00:43,839 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio, the last CPI before the mid terms. Welcome 12 00:00:43,880 --> 00:00:47,239 Speaker 1: to the fastest hour in politics, as inflation continues to 13 00:00:47,320 --> 00:00:50,600 Speaker 1: defy gravity and the Feds. Will bring you the view 14 00:00:50,640 --> 00:00:53,760 Speaker 1: directly from the White House in a conversation with Presidential 15 00:00:53,800 --> 00:00:58,880 Speaker 1: advisor Gene Sperling, from economist Douglas Holtzken, and from Bloomberg's 16 00:00:58,880 --> 00:01:01,600 Speaker 1: own Tom Keene, who was spending this week at the 17 00:01:01,640 --> 00:01:04,759 Speaker 1: I m F. Later, the January six Committee holds its 18 00:01:04,760 --> 00:01:08,000 Speaker 1: final hearing. It just ended votes to subpoena Donald Trump. 19 00:01:08,400 --> 00:01:10,440 Speaker 1: While they're at it, we'll hear from Rebecca roy Fee 20 00:01:10,520 --> 00:01:14,160 Speaker 1: of New York Law School, former Assistant District Attorney for 21 00:01:14,280 --> 00:01:17,640 Speaker 1: New York County, and analysis from our panel Bloomberg Politics contributor, 22 00:01:17,680 --> 00:01:22,600 Speaker 1: Democratic analyst Gene Chanzano, Republicans strategist Lisa Miller of Cogent Strategies, 23 00:01:23,000 --> 00:01:25,600 Speaker 1: former Comms director at the r n C for the 24 00:01:25,640 --> 00:01:28,640 Speaker 1: White House putting the full court press on today's inflation report, 25 00:01:28,720 --> 00:01:33,479 Speaker 1: knowing that Wall Street does not represent the American household 26 00:01:33,920 --> 00:01:38,800 Speaker 1: when it comes to this story. That remarkable reversal doesn't 27 00:01:38,840 --> 00:01:42,560 Speaker 1: exactly reflect the conversation inside the Beltway or at the 28 00:01:42,640 --> 00:01:45,720 Speaker 1: kitchen table. President Biden spoke about it at an event 29 00:01:45,760 --> 00:01:48,800 Speaker 1: on his infrastructure plans today in l A. Americans are 30 00:01:48,800 --> 00:01:52,200 Speaker 1: squeezed by the cost of theity. It's been true for years, 31 00:01:52,240 --> 00:01:54,440 Speaker 1: and folks don't need to be a report to tell 32 00:01:54,480 --> 00:01:57,640 Speaker 1: them there'll be a squeeze. Fighting this battle every day 33 00:01:57,720 --> 00:02:00,280 Speaker 1: is a key reason why I ran for President nits Sace. 34 00:02:00,480 --> 00:02:02,520 Speaker 1: But the report was there, whether they needed to see 35 00:02:02,560 --> 00:02:05,120 Speaker 1: it or not. It reflects what's happening now. The snapshot 36 00:02:05,120 --> 00:02:06,840 Speaker 1: in time with four weeks to go to the mid 37 00:02:07,000 --> 00:02:09,560 Speaker 1: terms and the White House trying to put a good 38 00:02:09,600 --> 00:02:12,720 Speaker 1: spin on this as we bring in. Jeane Spurling White 39 00:02:12,760 --> 00:02:15,320 Speaker 1: House American Rescue Plan of Coordinator is the senior advisor 40 00:02:15,800 --> 00:02:18,840 Speaker 1: to the President former director of the National Economic Council. 41 00:02:18,960 --> 00:02:22,200 Speaker 1: Gene Welcome back to Bloomberg. Thanks for having enough. There 42 00:02:22,240 --> 00:02:25,520 Speaker 1: was a sense of helplessness when the CPI hit this morning, 43 00:02:25,560 --> 00:02:27,960 Speaker 1: and obviously Wall Street has gone in another direction here, 44 00:02:28,600 --> 00:02:30,200 Speaker 1: and I know the White House has also seen some 45 00:02:30,240 --> 00:02:34,040 Speaker 1: incremental improvement. Brian Deese was speaking to that earlier on Bloomberg. 46 00:02:34,080 --> 00:02:36,919 Speaker 1: But the Fed clearly has not yet had a major 47 00:02:36,960 --> 00:02:39,399 Speaker 1: impact on inflation. What is it about this trend that 48 00:02:39,400 --> 00:02:44,400 Speaker 1: that continues to defy predictions? Well, I would be a 49 00:02:44,440 --> 00:02:48,560 Speaker 1: little more positive than than what you described, because I mean, 50 00:02:48,639 --> 00:02:51,640 Speaker 1: let's just look, first of all, at the third quarter 51 00:02:51,720 --> 00:02:55,000 Speaker 1: of the last three months. It has been two percent 52 00:02:55,240 --> 00:02:59,200 Speaker 1: annualized the last in the third quarter. That's compared to 53 00:02:59,280 --> 00:03:02,760 Speaker 1: eleven per sent uh in the second quarter. Now, a 54 00:03:02,760 --> 00:03:06,760 Speaker 1: lot of that is obviously been energy car energy prices 55 00:03:06,840 --> 00:03:11,120 Speaker 1: going down, but we've also seen used cars prices going 56 00:03:11,160 --> 00:03:15,160 Speaker 1: down other things, and I think there is some reason 57 00:03:15,360 --> 00:03:19,680 Speaker 1: to be optimistic about the path forward. I mean, one 58 00:03:19,880 --> 00:03:24,000 Speaker 1: half of the increasing core inflation really was from shelter 59 00:03:24,320 --> 00:03:29,600 Speaker 1: rent um but we've seen private sector UH indicators Apartment 60 00:03:29,680 --> 00:03:33,880 Speaker 1: dot Com case Shiller have both suggested home prices and 61 00:03:34,040 --> 00:03:37,800 Speaker 1: new leases uh you know, came down in August. Now, 62 00:03:37,840 --> 00:03:40,760 Speaker 1: I understand there's a lag before that goes into the 63 00:03:40,800 --> 00:03:45,040 Speaker 1: official CPI, but it does suggest there's some more positive 64 00:03:45,560 --> 00:03:49,200 Speaker 1: signs there. The job opening data with one point one 65 00:03:49,240 --> 00:03:53,680 Speaker 1: million less job openings is certainly showing some cooling. The 66 00:03:53,800 --> 00:03:57,200 Speaker 1: supply chain index that the Fed publishes is back to 67 00:03:57,320 --> 00:04:02,160 Speaker 1: twenty February levels, and I've just read so much recently, 68 00:04:02,160 --> 00:04:06,040 Speaker 1: including from JP Morrigan about seven hundred and thirty two 69 00:04:06,080 --> 00:04:12,480 Speaker 1: billion inventory for people of predicting aggressive discounting, aggressive online 70 00:04:12,520 --> 00:04:16,440 Speaker 1: discounting during the Christmas season. So you know, yes, you 71 00:04:16,440 --> 00:04:19,599 Speaker 1: would have liked to see uh some of that show 72 00:04:19,720 --> 00:04:22,919 Speaker 1: up in the core inflation today, and it didn't. But 73 00:04:23,000 --> 00:04:26,520 Speaker 1: I still think there is some you know, real solid 74 00:04:26,600 --> 00:04:30,480 Speaker 1: evidence of that that things will move in the right direction. 75 00:04:30,600 --> 00:04:34,360 Speaker 1: And obviously headlines down from nine one to eight to 76 00:04:34,960 --> 00:04:38,880 Speaker 1: UH since June, but of course nobody thinks Nobody, including 77 00:04:38,880 --> 00:04:41,919 Speaker 1: this White House, thinks that's fast enough, even if it 78 00:04:42,040 --> 00:04:44,840 Speaker 1: is directionally. Yeah, we've had some big, great hikes here, 79 00:04:44,839 --> 00:04:46,480 Speaker 1: and it looks like they're going to be more big 80 00:04:47,000 --> 00:04:49,599 Speaker 1: hikes coming. So it's clearly going to take a long 81 00:04:49,640 --> 00:04:51,200 Speaker 1: time to get this down to where you want it, 82 00:04:51,360 --> 00:04:53,640 Speaker 1: and and voters are asking how long is it possible 83 00:04:53,680 --> 00:04:59,000 Speaker 1: to answer that? I think that, Um, you know, I've 84 00:04:59,080 --> 00:05:03,120 Speaker 1: never tried to play forecast or um you know, and 85 00:05:03,880 --> 00:05:08,080 Speaker 1: you know, give a precise date or a precise number, 86 00:05:08,600 --> 00:05:11,360 Speaker 1: I will, But I do feel comfortable saying that many 87 00:05:11,400 --> 00:05:16,679 Speaker 1: of the top forecasters are predicting that things will look uh, 88 00:05:16,839 --> 00:05:22,080 Speaker 1: you know, significantly better next year. And again, um uh 89 00:05:22,120 --> 00:05:24,159 Speaker 1: you know, there have been times where I wouldn't have 90 00:05:24,200 --> 00:05:28,159 Speaker 1: felt this comfortable saying that there were indicators like the 91 00:05:28,279 --> 00:05:33,840 Speaker 1: job opening or the record inventory or the projections of discounting. 92 00:05:33,920 --> 00:05:37,200 Speaker 1: So when you say significantly better next year, does that 93 00:05:37,240 --> 00:05:39,360 Speaker 1: mean that you do you don't see it a recession 94 00:05:39,440 --> 00:05:42,880 Speaker 1: in our future? Or do you mean that specific to prices? Gene, 95 00:05:44,080 --> 00:05:47,039 Speaker 1: I see that I see the prices seemed headed in 96 00:05:47,080 --> 00:05:49,800 Speaker 1: the right direction in terms of you know, will we 97 00:05:50,000 --> 00:05:53,520 Speaker 1: will we actually have a downturn? Um, you know, we 98 00:05:53,640 --> 00:05:57,839 Speaker 1: still see a lot of signs of resilience in the 99 00:05:57,960 --> 00:06:01,760 Speaker 1: US economy. I think the fact that we've had a 100 00:06:01,920 --> 00:06:05,400 Speaker 1: recovery that not only has had record job growth and 101 00:06:05,680 --> 00:06:09,599 Speaker 1: and and so many people working, but so much less 102 00:06:09,600 --> 00:06:13,120 Speaker 1: scarring that we went through after the Great Recession with 103 00:06:13,240 --> 00:06:18,039 Speaker 1: laundrom unemployment and seventeen percent youth unemployment. So I think 104 00:06:18,120 --> 00:06:22,800 Speaker 1: you're still seeing that people, are you know that that 105 00:06:22,920 --> 00:06:27,440 Speaker 1: whether it's state, local governments, businesses and you know, households, 106 00:06:27,440 --> 00:06:31,160 Speaker 1: you're seeing a degree of resilience that gives us more 107 00:06:31,240 --> 00:06:35,320 Speaker 1: confidence that we are better positioned than almost any country 108 00:06:35,400 --> 00:06:38,920 Speaker 1: to be able to take some of the discomfort from 109 00:06:39,800 --> 00:06:43,719 Speaker 1: higher UH interest rates UH, but and still make that 110 00:06:43,880 --> 00:06:48,400 Speaker 1: transitions to stable UH economic growth with lower prices, but 111 00:06:48,560 --> 00:06:52,360 Speaker 1: without having to give up all of the historic gains 112 00:06:52,360 --> 00:06:54,360 Speaker 1: that we have made in the labor market. Well maybe 113 00:06:54,360 --> 00:06:56,440 Speaker 1: that answers my next question. But you know this job 114 00:06:56,480 --> 00:06:58,520 Speaker 1: market is it's it's a curse and a blessing, right 115 00:06:58,520 --> 00:07:01,360 Speaker 1: are you? Are you concerned more now that beating inflation 116 00:07:01,400 --> 00:07:05,000 Speaker 1: will require damaging the job market, as Elizabeth Warren has 117 00:07:05,000 --> 00:07:10,160 Speaker 1: warned about, Well, again, I think we you know, we 118 00:07:10,240 --> 00:07:14,280 Speaker 1: are we are still hopeful, and we think there are 119 00:07:14,320 --> 00:07:18,240 Speaker 1: are good reasons to suggest that, um, that we can 120 00:07:18,280 --> 00:07:22,480 Speaker 1: make this transition UM without the type of you know, 121 00:07:22,600 --> 00:07:25,280 Speaker 1: hard landing that that that you do see, you know, 122 00:07:25,400 --> 00:07:31,240 Speaker 1: some people, uh you know warn about you know for us. Uh, 123 00:07:31,320 --> 00:07:32,800 Speaker 1: you know, even when you look at some of the 124 00:07:32,800 --> 00:07:36,680 Speaker 1: FED numbers on the jobs markets, you still see the 125 00:07:37,080 --> 00:07:40,400 Speaker 1: possibility of you know, whether you want to call the 126 00:07:40,520 --> 00:07:45,080 Speaker 1: soft landing or just a transition to a period of 127 00:07:45,120 --> 00:07:50,200 Speaker 1: more stable growth, uh and more stable and lower prices 128 00:07:50,240 --> 00:07:53,960 Speaker 1: going forward. And you know, I understand the fact that 129 00:07:54,120 --> 00:07:56,480 Speaker 1: some people's you know, what they can see as a 130 00:07:56,520 --> 00:08:00,440 Speaker 1: blessing can seem uh you know different to so I'm 131 00:08:00,480 --> 00:08:03,800 Speaker 1: worried about inflation. But I think when you're looking at 132 00:08:04,120 --> 00:08:09,760 Speaker 1: can you again bring down inflation and with without avoiding 133 00:08:09,920 --> 00:08:13,760 Speaker 1: the kind of hard downturn. You know, the fact that 134 00:08:13,760 --> 00:08:17,320 Speaker 1: that so many people are working, the fact that's so 135 00:08:17,440 --> 00:08:22,720 Speaker 1: many people, according to major banks still have checking accounts 136 00:08:22,760 --> 00:08:25,960 Speaker 1: that look more flush than they did, uh you know 137 00:08:26,000 --> 00:08:30,040 Speaker 1: when the pandemic started. Those all suggest that we may 138 00:08:30,040 --> 00:08:35,200 Speaker 1: be well positioned without that type of downturn. I consider 139 00:08:35,320 --> 00:08:39,920 Speaker 1: like the state local level, when I was National Economic Advisor, 140 00:08:39,920 --> 00:08:46,000 Speaker 1: in contraction at the state local level was a major issue, 141 00:08:46,080 --> 00:08:50,360 Speaker 1: subtracting from growth, detracting from jobs. Because of the American 142 00:08:50,400 --> 00:08:54,040 Speaker 1: Rescue plans, those a lot of those states and cities 143 00:08:54,040 --> 00:08:58,559 Speaker 1: and counties now are still addressing real issues from the pandemic. 144 00:08:58,600 --> 00:09:03,120 Speaker 1: They're not doing layoff. Those are all to meet things 145 00:09:03,160 --> 00:09:08,840 Speaker 1: that showed that the policies we've put forward have created 146 00:09:08,880 --> 00:09:12,840 Speaker 1: a degree of resilience in our economy. And and um, 147 00:09:13,120 --> 00:09:16,120 Speaker 1: uh that that I think does again give us optimism 148 00:09:16,160 --> 00:09:19,640 Speaker 1: that we are better position than our our fellow advanced 149 00:09:19,679 --> 00:09:24,679 Speaker 1: countries to make this transition without giving up uh, the 150 00:09:24,720 --> 00:09:27,000 Speaker 1: major gains in the job market. Do you clearly have 151 00:09:27,040 --> 00:09:29,240 Speaker 1: an optimistic view? I guess I'd ask you lastly, how 152 00:09:29,240 --> 00:09:31,559 Speaker 1: worried you are about about winter? How worried our listeners 153 00:09:31,600 --> 00:09:34,040 Speaker 1: should be about the winter heating season, gene spirling, whether 154 00:09:34,080 --> 00:09:36,679 Speaker 1: they use heating oil in the northeast or natural gas 155 00:09:36,720 --> 00:09:42,520 Speaker 1: somewhere else. Well, um, you know that that is a 156 00:09:42,559 --> 00:09:44,319 Speaker 1: really good question. I mean, one of the things we 157 00:09:44,320 --> 00:09:47,160 Speaker 1: were proud about what the American Rescue Plan was that 158 00:09:47,200 --> 00:09:53,280 Speaker 1: we did have historic increase several billion dollars, unprecedented for 159 00:09:53,600 --> 00:09:58,040 Speaker 1: lie heap or low income housing energy assistance. And I 160 00:09:58,080 --> 00:10:02,800 Speaker 1: think that uh, you know, as um Congress comes back, 161 00:10:03,520 --> 00:10:06,520 Speaker 1: you know that's one of that's an issue that is 162 00:10:06,160 --> 00:10:10,319 Speaker 1: is worth worth looking at. But um, I heard a 163 00:10:10,360 --> 00:10:15,240 Speaker 1: little bit right. I uh uh, you know, I try 164 00:10:15,280 --> 00:10:20,160 Speaker 1: not to either make uh pretend to be a precise 165 00:10:20,240 --> 00:10:24,440 Speaker 1: economic forecaster or or the weather man. At this point, 166 00:10:24,840 --> 00:10:27,080 Speaker 1: well j. Powell uses the word pain though we list 167 00:10:28,160 --> 00:10:30,439 Speaker 1: we have to keep our eye on and as you say, 168 00:10:30,640 --> 00:10:32,959 Speaker 1: you know can there can be very different impacts in 169 00:10:33,080 --> 00:10:37,320 Speaker 1: different parts of the country depending on the source of heating. 170 00:10:37,880 --> 00:10:40,280 Speaker 1: Jeene Spirling, I'm glad you gave us some time today, 171 00:10:40,400 --> 00:10:44,120 Speaker 1: White House American Rescue Plan Coordinator and Senior Advisor to 172 00:10:44,200 --> 00:10:46,760 Speaker 1: the President with us on CPI. DA Jane Spirling, thanks 173 00:10:46,800 --> 00:10:49,600 Speaker 1: as always for talking to Bloomberg. Oh, thank you for 174 00:10:49,640 --> 00:10:52,040 Speaker 1: having me. And as always we add another voice for 175 00:10:52,080 --> 00:10:54,240 Speaker 1: a different perspective, and we're glad to be joined by 176 00:10:54,320 --> 00:10:58,440 Speaker 1: Douglas Holtz Eakan of the American Action Forum, the president 177 00:10:58,880 --> 00:11:01,720 Speaker 1: and former council if he cannomic advisor's chief economist, he 178 00:11:01,760 --> 00:11:03,880 Speaker 1: knows where gene spoiling is coming from, and he certainly 179 00:11:03,880 --> 00:11:08,079 Speaker 1: knows where the CPI is coming from. Although Douglas, welcome back. 180 00:11:08,120 --> 00:11:10,000 Speaker 1: I don't know if if you can justify where the 181 00:11:10,080 --> 00:11:12,800 Speaker 1: number is coming from, can you believe how how stubborn 182 00:11:12,960 --> 00:11:15,320 Speaker 1: this has been considering the magnitude of the rate hikes 183 00:11:15,320 --> 00:11:19,120 Speaker 1: we've seen so far. Yes, I think this is not 184 00:11:19,600 --> 00:11:23,400 Speaker 1: very surprising. First of all, remember that regardless of your 185 00:11:23,400 --> 00:11:26,920 Speaker 1: preferred measure of inflation, it's still higher than is the 186 00:11:26,920 --> 00:11:29,520 Speaker 1: funds rate. So we have negative real interest rates and 187 00:11:29,960 --> 00:11:32,160 Speaker 1: we aren't even close to neutral. So while we know 188 00:11:32,240 --> 00:11:35,080 Speaker 1: the sassan last month last year with his foot on 189 00:11:35,080 --> 00:11:38,000 Speaker 1: the gas, it has certainly taken its foot on off 190 00:11:38,040 --> 00:11:40,439 Speaker 1: the gas, but it hasn't tapped the break yet. So 191 00:11:40,920 --> 00:11:42,760 Speaker 1: once we get you know, real rates up in the 192 00:11:42,800 --> 00:11:46,400 Speaker 1: positive territory and and we're in a restrictive posture, we'll 193 00:11:46,400 --> 00:11:48,920 Speaker 1: see how much that brings down inflation. The other reason 194 00:11:49,000 --> 00:11:52,760 Speaker 1: I'm not surprised is mechanically that all roads lead to 195 00:11:52,760 --> 00:11:56,439 Speaker 1: shelter inflation. Uh In the CPI, shelter is a third 196 00:11:56,559 --> 00:11:58,080 Speaker 1: of of the c g I is a third of 197 00:11:58,080 --> 00:12:01,720 Speaker 1: the typical family budget, and it has none of these 198 00:12:01,760 --> 00:12:04,280 Speaker 1: things people like to point fingers out. There's no supply chains, 199 00:12:04,320 --> 00:12:08,079 Speaker 1: there's no Saudias, there's no no big companies. The apartments 200 00:12:08,080 --> 00:12:11,280 Speaker 1: are here, the houses are here. Shelter inflation has risen 201 00:12:11,440 --> 00:12:15,880 Speaker 1: every month since January. It is yet to show any 202 00:12:15,880 --> 00:12:17,839 Speaker 1: times that peaking year over your inflation one up from 203 00:12:17,880 --> 00:12:20,360 Speaker 1: five seven to six two to six six and the 204 00:12:20,360 --> 00:12:25,000 Speaker 1: most recent report. And until you get shelter inflation under 205 00:12:25,280 --> 00:12:27,760 Speaker 1: you can't have success on the c p I. So 206 00:12:27,840 --> 00:12:30,200 Speaker 1: this just six. Everything halts to be zero to get 207 00:12:30,240 --> 00:12:32,439 Speaker 1: to two. I mean, that's not gonna happen. So this 208 00:12:32,800 --> 00:12:34,600 Speaker 1: is a tough spot for this White House dog. You 209 00:12:34,640 --> 00:12:37,560 Speaker 1: know that. Uh, when when we step back and look 210 00:12:37,600 --> 00:12:39,400 Speaker 1: at what they're actually looking, I know it's their job 211 00:12:39,480 --> 00:12:41,560 Speaker 1: to be optimistic. You have to talk up the economy, 212 00:12:41,600 --> 00:12:44,560 Speaker 1: that's the deal when you're part of the administration. But 213 00:12:44,920 --> 00:12:49,040 Speaker 1: pointing to the job market as a source of strength, uh, 214 00:12:49,320 --> 00:12:52,400 Speaker 1: without also acknowledging the trouble that it's bringing. And I 215 00:12:52,440 --> 00:12:55,400 Speaker 1: know that this is always a popular viewpoint, but that 216 00:12:55,480 --> 00:12:59,280 Speaker 1: wage inflation is a persistent issue and that they may 217 00:12:59,320 --> 00:13:01,920 Speaker 1: have to actually harm the job market to get this 218 00:13:02,040 --> 00:13:04,839 Speaker 1: job done will create a very difficult narrative for the 219 00:13:04,840 --> 00:13:07,640 Speaker 1: White House next year. They're also pointing to lower gas prices, 220 00:13:08,240 --> 00:13:10,440 Speaker 1: and Douglas, we have every reason to believe that oil 221 00:13:10,600 --> 00:13:13,200 Speaker 1: and gas are going up. You mentioned the Saudias. This 222 00:13:13,240 --> 00:13:17,240 Speaker 1: is gonna be a tough winter. Absolutely, there's no question 223 00:13:17,320 --> 00:13:18,880 Speaker 1: of it. So so is it smart for them to 224 00:13:18,880 --> 00:13:21,240 Speaker 1: be speaking optimistically about this stuff? Where does the White 225 00:13:21,240 --> 00:13:24,640 Speaker 1: House need a new narrative? I think they needed a narrative. 226 00:13:24,640 --> 00:13:26,560 Speaker 1: I mean they have not had a decent narrative on 227 00:13:26,640 --> 00:13:30,719 Speaker 1: inflation yet. Their narrative has been uh, corporate creed, as 228 00:13:30,760 --> 00:13:34,560 Speaker 1: if the arab of corporate benevolence had somehow ended. Um. 229 00:13:34,640 --> 00:13:38,160 Speaker 1: They said it's supply chains. Um. Well, uh, you know, 230 00:13:38,200 --> 00:13:40,920 Speaker 1: as I said, shelter inflation, there's no supply chains there. Uh, 231 00:13:41,160 --> 00:13:43,880 Speaker 1: it's it's the Saudias and gas prices. But we we 232 00:13:43,880 --> 00:13:46,360 Speaker 1: were going to tap this strategic control reserve. They they've 233 00:13:46,360 --> 00:13:49,520 Speaker 1: gone to a million stories. None of them addressed the 234 00:13:49,559 --> 00:13:52,920 Speaker 1: basic problem, which is they made a big policy error 235 00:13:53,200 --> 00:13:56,840 Speaker 1: with over stamulus in the economy, fiscal and monetary last year. 236 00:13:56,960 --> 00:13:59,720 Speaker 1: And we're reaping the results. And here's the truth. And 237 00:13:59,720 --> 00:14:03,199 Speaker 1: and and you said it really well, the hot labor 238 00:14:03,240 --> 00:14:05,640 Speaker 1: market and the high inflation or flip sides of the 239 00:14:05,679 --> 00:14:08,240 Speaker 1: same coin. You can't have one without the other. They 240 00:14:08,280 --> 00:14:11,480 Speaker 1: come together. And if you want to deal with the inflation, 241 00:14:11,600 --> 00:14:14,400 Speaker 1: you're gonna see some relatively bad news in the lay market. 242 00:14:14,400 --> 00:14:17,200 Speaker 1: There's no way around that. And and so what I 243 00:14:17,240 --> 00:14:19,240 Speaker 1: try to remind people is when you're thinking about the 244 00:14:19,240 --> 00:14:21,920 Speaker 1: White House said, whoever you're pointing fingers out at the moment, 245 00:14:22,320 --> 00:14:25,000 Speaker 1: remember that once you make the mistake of letting inflation 246 00:14:25,080 --> 00:14:28,040 Speaker 1: get entrenched, you have no good choices. Either live with 247 00:14:28,080 --> 00:14:30,520 Speaker 1: the inflation or you deal with what you have to 248 00:14:30,560 --> 00:14:32,200 Speaker 1: do to get rid of it. Both are really bad 249 00:14:32,200 --> 00:14:33,880 Speaker 1: in the stories. Are we there though? Is it I? 250 00:14:34,080 --> 00:14:37,400 Speaker 1: Is it entrenched in your view? Yes, we saw that. 251 00:14:38,000 --> 00:14:41,480 Speaker 1: We saw the things that UM caused this set to 252 00:14:41,480 --> 00:14:45,160 Speaker 1: to actually do a big U turn and aggressively take 253 00:14:45,200 --> 00:14:48,760 Speaker 1: on inflation. We saw inflation expectations go from well contained 254 00:14:48,800 --> 00:14:51,680 Speaker 1: and not to go from three percent so well over 255 00:14:52,240 --> 00:14:54,520 Speaker 1: uh seven in one year out and then the three 256 00:14:54,520 --> 00:14:57,480 Speaker 1: and five were moving up and and that was the 257 00:14:57,560 --> 00:15:01,200 Speaker 1: hallmark of the last air of great inflation. You know, 258 00:15:01,240 --> 00:15:05,360 Speaker 1: the seventies and eighties, people expected double digit inflation, and 259 00:15:05,400 --> 00:15:08,080 Speaker 1: so they've built into their wage request double digit inflation. 260 00:15:08,120 --> 00:15:10,600 Speaker 1: And when they write writing supply contracts, they counted on it. 261 00:15:11,040 --> 00:15:13,520 Speaker 1: And so you build that kind of cost increase into 262 00:15:13,800 --> 00:15:17,560 Speaker 1: the business structures, it's self fulfilling. You get inflation, and 263 00:15:17,600 --> 00:15:20,440 Speaker 1: that means the FED after done being whether they're done 264 00:15:20,880 --> 00:15:22,840 Speaker 1: uh you know at the beginning of next year, halfway through, 265 00:15:23,360 --> 00:15:25,120 Speaker 1: they're going to have to keep it there. That's that 266 00:15:25,200 --> 00:15:27,480 Speaker 1: seems to be the part that the market is confused about, 267 00:15:27,560 --> 00:15:29,760 Speaker 1: right looking for a pivot. Just because you're done hiking 268 00:15:29,800 --> 00:15:33,080 Speaker 1: doesn't mean you have to start cutting. I really don't 269 00:15:33,160 --> 00:15:35,960 Speaker 1: understand the confusion. I think Chairman Powell has been blunt 270 00:15:36,040 --> 00:15:40,840 Speaker 1: and clearness these has said this will take a long time. 271 00:15:40,880 --> 00:15:42,320 Speaker 1: It will take up to three years to get back 272 00:15:42,360 --> 00:15:44,600 Speaker 1: to two percent. There will have to be a persistent 273 00:15:44,600 --> 00:15:48,120 Speaker 1: period of restrictive monetary policy. That's that's that says, keep 274 00:15:48,120 --> 00:15:50,040 Speaker 1: it up there. You're not cutting. There's no no question 275 00:15:50,040 --> 00:15:51,880 Speaker 1: about that. He's been honest that there will be paying 276 00:15:51,920 --> 00:15:55,120 Speaker 1: for American businesses and households. They've stopped using the phrase 277 00:15:55,200 --> 00:15:57,520 Speaker 1: soft landing. I mean, I don't know what's left to 278 00:15:57,560 --> 00:16:01,680 Speaker 1: figure out here. Boy, I'm glad you could be with 279 00:16:01,760 --> 00:16:04,280 Speaker 1: us today. We're praying for a soft landing, but I 280 00:16:04,280 --> 00:16:06,160 Speaker 1: guess it would be uh, it would take a little 281 00:16:06,160 --> 00:16:07,600 Speaker 1: bit of magic to pull it off at this point. 282 00:16:08,080 --> 00:16:10,760 Speaker 1: Douglas whole Teak in American Action Forum President, former Council 283 00:16:10,840 --> 00:16:14,440 Speaker 1: of Economic Advisors chief economist with us on the fastest 284 00:16:14,440 --> 00:16:17,400 Speaker 1: hour in politics, and the hits just keep on coming. Here. 285 00:16:17,440 --> 00:16:19,480 Speaker 1: You know who's in town right now to cover the 286 00:16:19,520 --> 00:16:22,200 Speaker 1: I m F with which just yesterday, as you heard 287 00:16:22,200 --> 00:16:25,840 Speaker 1: on this program cut It's forecast for global growth is 288 00:16:25,840 --> 00:16:29,840 Speaker 1: Bloomberg's own Tom Keene. He's getting a very unique view 289 00:16:29,880 --> 00:16:31,840 Speaker 1: of what's happening at the I m F and with 290 00:16:31,960 --> 00:16:34,200 Speaker 1: us here now in the Washington d C Bureau. T K, 291 00:16:34,520 --> 00:16:38,040 Speaker 1: Welcome back to d C. Wonderful to be here. I 292 00:16:38,120 --> 00:16:40,240 Speaker 1: think this is great to see you. I'm staying up 293 00:16:40,320 --> 00:16:42,960 Speaker 1: late watching Padres Dodgers. It's difficult, and you've got the 294 00:16:42,960 --> 00:16:45,640 Speaker 1: surveillance call in the morning. The surveillance nap must mean 295 00:16:45,640 --> 00:16:49,040 Speaker 1: more than ever, so it does, and it's an uncertain times. 296 00:16:49,040 --> 00:16:52,040 Speaker 1: So frankly, you're watching the Bloomberg on your iPhones saying, okay, 297 00:16:52,080 --> 00:16:53,600 Speaker 1: is the world gonna blow up? And the answers we 298 00:16:53,720 --> 00:16:55,520 Speaker 1: made it through another day? Well, I saw your promo. 299 00:16:55,520 --> 00:16:57,800 Speaker 1: There's a Bloomberg apparently in the White House. There's probably 300 00:16:57,840 --> 00:16:59,640 Speaker 1: one over at the I m F. Actually, there's probably 301 00:16:59,640 --> 00:17:01,680 Speaker 1: a bunch of met the I m F. The White 302 00:17:01,680 --> 00:17:03,960 Speaker 1: House is perplexed this morning, but so is the market, 303 00:17:04,000 --> 00:17:06,600 Speaker 1: and so are you. How has none of this action 304 00:17:06,640 --> 00:17:09,600 Speaker 1: by J. Powell had any impact on anything it had. 305 00:17:09,640 --> 00:17:12,680 Speaker 1: That's a really important question. And the mathiness of it 306 00:17:12,840 --> 00:17:16,560 Speaker 1: is we knew it wouldn't have an impact that you've 307 00:17:16,560 --> 00:17:21,600 Speaker 1: had on Gene Sperling, who's wonderful policy expert on fiscal policy, 308 00:17:21,680 --> 00:17:25,840 Speaker 1: like Douglas Holtz Egan across the political divide shows that 309 00:17:25,960 --> 00:17:29,919 Speaker 1: the common ground of Democrats and Republicans and economics is 310 00:17:30,000 --> 00:17:33,440 Speaker 1: they really know the FED early in a cycle doesn't 311 00:17:33,480 --> 00:17:37,280 Speaker 1: get much done. We've moved from ultra accommodative to accommodative 312 00:17:37,320 --> 00:17:40,280 Speaker 1: and now maybe is where the heavy lifting starts. But 313 00:17:40,320 --> 00:17:43,119 Speaker 1: then history repeats with a front loaded action that drives 314 00:17:43,200 --> 00:17:45,959 Speaker 1: the economy into a recession. Right, It's like everybody, all 315 00:17:46,119 --> 00:17:49,760 Speaker 1: the naysayers are being proven right, Yeah they are. It's 316 00:17:49,800 --> 00:17:51,800 Speaker 1: been a it's been a victory for the gloom crew 317 00:17:51,880 --> 00:17:54,439 Speaker 1: the last number of days. But I'd really take issue 318 00:17:54,760 --> 00:17:58,960 Speaker 1: with economic slowdown is only because of the FED. There's 319 00:17:58,960 --> 00:18:01,480 Speaker 1: a number of other things going on and some of 320 00:18:01,480 --> 00:18:03,960 Speaker 1: them downplayed at these meetings of the World Bank. In 321 00:18:04,000 --> 00:18:07,880 Speaker 1: the i m F, for example, I would suggest the 322 00:18:07,960 --> 00:18:11,760 Speaker 1: COVID challenge of China has a far greater weight on 323 00:18:11,840 --> 00:18:16,120 Speaker 1: global demand, on the price of oil than anybody can imagine. 324 00:18:16,200 --> 00:18:18,320 Speaker 1: One of my key questions that hasn't been answered yet 325 00:18:18,320 --> 00:18:21,560 Speaker 1: is where would oil be if China was open for business? 326 00:18:21,600 --> 00:18:24,080 Speaker 1: And the answers would be a lot higher. How palpable 327 00:18:24,160 --> 00:18:27,320 Speaker 1: is the fear when you walk through the tangible Joe, 328 00:18:27,359 --> 00:18:29,600 Speaker 1: you and I were younger, the red socks used to win, 329 00:18:30,280 --> 00:18:33,520 Speaker 1: and when the last time it was wasn't it wasn't 330 00:18:33,560 --> 00:18:37,320 Speaker 1: that long ago, but actually it was oh eight oh nine. Yes, 331 00:18:37,640 --> 00:18:40,639 Speaker 1: it's it's it's the same tension, but it's different. The 332 00:18:41,080 --> 00:18:44,199 Speaker 1: major talking point for your audience, I would say is 333 00:18:44,240 --> 00:18:48,040 Speaker 1: the experts here off the mic are not looking at 334 00:18:48,240 --> 00:18:51,240 Speaker 1: eight o nine. They're back four decades, They're back five 335 00:18:51,320 --> 00:18:55,280 Speaker 1: decades and trying to analyze this original pandemic war in 336 00:18:55,440 --> 00:19:00,160 Speaker 1: Ukraine moment that we're in. The summary of it is 337 00:19:00,160 --> 00:19:03,000 Speaker 1: is Crystallina Gordy gave it said today the managing director 338 00:19:03,320 --> 00:19:05,040 Speaker 1: of the I m F. And she gets her hands 339 00:19:05,080 --> 00:19:08,040 Speaker 1: out and there's these moving parts to the plumbing of 340 00:19:08,119 --> 00:19:13,239 Speaker 1: the system. Their focus, which is unfamiliar to Americans, is 341 00:19:13,280 --> 00:19:16,240 Speaker 1: to keep the liquidity in the system, particularly in the 342 00:19:16,320 --> 00:19:20,000 Speaker 1: United Kingdom, and that's really the point focus right now 343 00:19:20,000 --> 00:19:23,120 Speaker 1: at these meetings. You use the word original with someone 344 00:19:23,119 --> 00:19:25,520 Speaker 1: who has such a keen sense of history, I guess 345 00:19:25,640 --> 00:19:29,600 Speaker 1: pun intended. What makes this original? It makes it original 346 00:19:29,720 --> 00:19:33,560 Speaker 1: because there was a medical crisis. I laughed at my grandmother. 347 00:19:33,960 --> 00:19:37,200 Speaker 1: I'd be down on Cape cod overlook a Nauset beach 348 00:19:37,240 --> 00:19:39,560 Speaker 1: with a beverage of her choice in her hand, and 349 00:19:39,600 --> 00:19:43,600 Speaker 1: after the third beverage, Graham a keen would talk about eight, 350 00:19:46,080 --> 00:19:49,399 Speaker 1: which is much worse than this, and we laugh at her. 351 00:19:49,720 --> 00:19:52,440 Speaker 1: And now we're not laughing. We had a pandemic and 352 00:19:52,680 --> 00:19:56,240 Speaker 1: the foundational issue of where we are right now as 353 00:19:56,240 --> 00:20:00,520 Speaker 1: we're still coming out of this, this pandemic in many form. 354 00:20:00,560 --> 00:20:03,040 Speaker 1: So I would call that the original moment still is 355 00:20:03,040 --> 00:20:05,480 Speaker 1: the medicine of the moment. What was that turn around 356 00:20:05,480 --> 00:20:07,640 Speaker 1: today on Wall Street? Don't tell John Pharaoh. I asked 357 00:20:07,640 --> 00:20:09,840 Speaker 1: you what made the Taos swing a thousand points? I 358 00:20:09,840 --> 00:20:11,879 Speaker 1: think just a lot of gloom and so are the 359 00:20:11,880 --> 00:20:14,880 Speaker 1: algorithms running. But you know, here's what you do. Here's 360 00:20:14,960 --> 00:20:18,200 Speaker 1: here's the secret, folks, and it's it's nothing original. Your 361 00:20:18,240 --> 00:20:21,440 Speaker 1: glue to your Bloomberg terminal on the iPhone and you've 362 00:20:21,440 --> 00:20:24,280 Speaker 1: got all these data points and you can find a 363 00:20:24,320 --> 00:20:27,080 Speaker 1: few of them that then link into whatever the news 364 00:20:27,080 --> 00:20:30,080 Speaker 1: of the moment is from our headline service. And the 365 00:20:30,119 --> 00:20:33,280 Speaker 1: news of the moment was a sigh of relief over 366 00:20:33,320 --> 00:20:35,320 Speaker 1: what was happening in the United Kingdom. As I was 367 00:20:35,359 --> 00:20:38,560 Speaker 1: speaking to the managing director behind us through the glass 368 00:20:38,560 --> 00:20:40,879 Speaker 1: of the I m F studio was a Chancellor of 369 00:20:40,880 --> 00:20:43,800 Speaker 1: the Chequer speaking to the BBC. This is what it's 370 00:20:43,800 --> 00:20:47,119 Speaker 1: come to. The British is what the the British. There's 371 00:20:47,160 --> 00:20:50,639 Speaker 1: a sigh of relief that the Chancellor would blink on 372 00:20:50,800 --> 00:20:55,240 Speaker 1: his original fiscal policy and that reverse. I would suggest 373 00:20:55,359 --> 00:20:57,880 Speaker 1: that was the catalyst that reversed the market. I hope 374 00:20:57,920 --> 00:21:00,320 Speaker 1: you'll be here more often in the new year. We'll 375 00:21:00,359 --> 00:21:02,359 Speaker 1: have to you know, in Washington. The next time the 376 00:21:02,359 --> 00:21:04,199 Speaker 1: Red Sox win, I'll be here. I'll meet you for 377 00:21:04,240 --> 00:21:08,160 Speaker 1: a drink. If you see us at the St Regis later, 378 00:21:08,200 --> 00:21:11,560 Speaker 1: send around over we might need it. Let's assemble the 379 00:21:11,600 --> 00:21:14,680 Speaker 1: panel now, let's layer on two more voices, with Bloomberg 380 00:21:14,680 --> 00:21:19,760 Speaker 1: Politics contributor and Democratic analyst Genie Chanzano joined today by 381 00:21:19,840 --> 00:21:23,200 Speaker 1: Lisa Caboosa Miller back with us for the first time, 382 00:21:23,200 --> 00:21:25,639 Speaker 1: and a bit from Coch strategies. Former calms director of 383 00:21:25,680 --> 00:21:28,600 Speaker 1: the r n C, Lisa, it's great to have. You're 384 00:21:28,600 --> 00:21:32,960 Speaker 1: gonna start with you here is this is this fulfilling 385 00:21:33,080 --> 00:21:35,960 Speaker 1: what Republicans have been saying about Democrats for the last 386 00:21:36,000 --> 00:21:39,320 Speaker 1: six months. Well, Joe, I think that the recent polling 387 00:21:39,400 --> 00:21:42,880 Speaker 1: shows that inflation and the economy still are reigning supreme 388 00:21:42,880 --> 00:21:46,480 Speaker 1: over every other issue for Republicans and for voters in general. 389 00:21:46,560 --> 00:21:51,639 Speaker 1: And when asked, all voters polled have said that of 390 00:21:51,680 --> 00:21:56,160 Speaker 1: them trust Republicans over Democrats on on the economy and 391 00:21:56,520 --> 00:21:58,800 Speaker 1: certainly on inflation. So to me, that means that we 392 00:21:58,840 --> 00:22:01,760 Speaker 1: are coming into a very very strong headwind for Democrats 393 00:22:01,800 --> 00:22:04,600 Speaker 1: into the midterm elections. Genie, what do you do if 394 00:22:04,640 --> 00:22:07,040 Speaker 1: you're Joe Biden? You deferred to the Fed. You thought 395 00:22:07,040 --> 00:22:08,960 Speaker 1: they were going to fix it. It It went from transitory, 396 00:22:09,000 --> 00:22:12,320 Speaker 1: then they told you it wasn't. Now the rate hikes 397 00:22:12,359 --> 00:22:15,560 Speaker 1: followed by rate hikes and more on the way don't 398 00:22:15,680 --> 00:22:18,600 Speaker 1: seem to be making a dent. Well, I think he 399 00:22:18,640 --> 00:22:21,520 Speaker 1: should join you and Tom Keane for that sift drink 400 00:22:21,560 --> 00:22:24,320 Speaker 1: at the St Regis and start from there. It's the 401 00:22:24,320 --> 00:22:27,080 Speaker 1: only real answer. I think it's the only answer, you know, 402 00:22:27,200 --> 00:22:30,280 Speaker 1: I go back to Gerald Ford with his wind button 403 00:22:30,320 --> 00:22:34,480 Speaker 1: whip inflation now and people describe that, including Alan Greenspan, 404 00:22:34,560 --> 00:22:37,119 Speaker 1: as incredibly stupid, and it may have been, but it 405 00:22:37,200 --> 00:22:41,679 Speaker 1: shows you just how desperate presidents are, whether Republicans or Democrats, 406 00:22:41,720 --> 00:22:43,959 Speaker 1: when they are looking at these headwinds. I mean, I 407 00:22:44,040 --> 00:22:45,959 Speaker 1: keep this running list, and we talk about this all 408 00:22:46,000 --> 00:22:48,480 Speaker 1: the time. I am f JP, Morgan, Bank of America, 409 00:22:48,920 --> 00:22:51,000 Speaker 1: Larry Summers. I mean, you can go down the list, 410 00:22:51,040 --> 00:22:54,120 Speaker 1: the PPI, the CPI, all the numbers are looking at 411 00:22:54,160 --> 00:22:57,200 Speaker 1: It's October, it's Halloween sign you gotta get out you're 412 00:22:57,200 --> 00:22:59,560 Speaker 1: really scary costume, because this is what it's looking like. 413 00:22:59,800 --> 00:23:01,960 Speaker 1: And you know we're talking twenty six days to the 414 00:23:02,000 --> 00:23:04,480 Speaker 1: mid term. But don't forget Larry Summer is talking about 415 00:23:04,480 --> 00:23:06,719 Speaker 1: a recession. Most people talking about a recession next year. 416 00:23:06,840 --> 00:23:09,840 Speaker 1: That marches you right into the presidential election cycle. This 417 00:23:09,880 --> 00:23:12,640 Speaker 1: is bad news for the Democrats, bad news for the president. 418 00:23:12,880 --> 00:23:16,000 Speaker 1: And to Lisa's point, the poll numbers underscore this, and 419 00:23:16,040 --> 00:23:18,040 Speaker 1: the American public has got to be saying, why do 420 00:23:18,119 --> 00:23:19,919 Speaker 1: we need experts? We told you we felt like it 421 00:23:19,960 --> 00:23:22,639 Speaker 1: wasn't a recession. Technically we may not be yet, but 422 00:23:22,720 --> 00:23:25,400 Speaker 1: that's how it feels, and that's the problem the president has. 423 00:23:25,440 --> 00:23:27,679 Speaker 1: He's got to deal with how people feel, not what 424 00:23:27,720 --> 00:23:30,480 Speaker 1: the experts say is the reality, Lisa. The Republicans have 425 00:23:30,560 --> 00:23:32,720 Speaker 1: to worry about this slapping back on a on a 426 00:23:32,800 --> 00:23:35,320 Speaker 1: GOP that takes the majority in the House. If we 427 00:23:35,520 --> 00:23:37,439 Speaker 1: if we think that all these rate hikes are going 428 00:23:37,520 --> 00:23:41,200 Speaker 1: to lead to a recession next year, well, I think 429 00:23:41,200 --> 00:23:44,159 Speaker 1: that they still have a long list of of items 430 00:23:44,160 --> 00:23:45,760 Speaker 1: that they want to take up right away as soon 431 00:23:45,800 --> 00:23:47,320 Speaker 1: as they take back the House. And one of them, 432 00:23:47,359 --> 00:23:49,280 Speaker 1: Joe to your listeners, is one that I think that 433 00:23:49,400 --> 00:23:51,480 Speaker 1: is especially concerning, and that's the fact that they have 434 00:23:51,560 --> 00:23:54,359 Speaker 1: said that they are separating from Corporate America. They have 435 00:23:54,480 --> 00:23:56,600 Speaker 1: taken this into their sites. They're looking at E s 436 00:23:56,640 --> 00:23:58,600 Speaker 1: G is an issue that is a concern to them, 437 00:23:58,880 --> 00:24:00,760 Speaker 1: and they're going to get active, are gonna get busy, 438 00:24:00,760 --> 00:24:02,400 Speaker 1: and they're going to start to point fingers and they're 439 00:24:02,400 --> 00:24:04,200 Speaker 1: certainly not going to take the blame. They're going to 440 00:24:04,280 --> 00:24:07,639 Speaker 1: point the pictures at the party. Lisa Kabousa Miller Jeanie 441 00:24:07,640 --> 00:24:10,880 Speaker 1: Schanzano returned to January six next on the Fastest Hour 442 00:24:10,960 --> 00:24:17,399 Speaker 1: in Politics, I'm Joe Matthew, this is Bloomberg Chairman. I 443 00:24:17,400 --> 00:24:21,960 Speaker 1: request to recorded vote. Recorded vote is requested. The clerk 444 00:24:22,040 --> 00:24:26,919 Speaker 1: will call the role Miss Cheney Hi, Miss Cheney I, 445 00:24:28,520 --> 00:24:35,240 Speaker 1: Miss Lorn, Miss Laughran I. Mr Chef HI, Mr Chef I, 446 00:24:36,680 --> 00:24:42,879 Speaker 1: Mr Aguilar Hi, Mr Aguilar I, Mrs Murphy, Mrs Murphy I, 447 00:24:44,160 --> 00:24:50,320 Speaker 1: Mr Raskin HI, Mr Raskin I, Mrs Luria, Mrs Lauria, 448 00:24:51,640 --> 00:24:58,800 Speaker 1: Mr Kensinger Kinsinger, Mr Kensinger, Mr Chairman Hi, Mr Chairman I. 449 00:24:59,480 --> 00:25:03,080 Speaker 1: The clerk will report the vote, Mr Chairman. On this vote, 450 00:25:03,280 --> 00:25:08,200 Speaker 1: there are nine eyes. Zero knows the resolution agreed to 451 00:25:11,240 --> 00:25:17,639 Speaker 1: and that was it. The finish of the January six committee. Today. 452 00:25:17,680 --> 00:25:20,199 Speaker 1: It's last scheduled hearing and that's the last one we 453 00:25:20,280 --> 00:25:25,119 Speaker 1: expect voting, as you've heard, unanimously to compel testimony and 454 00:25:25,240 --> 00:25:30,040 Speaker 1: documents from Yes, Donald J. Trump. Is that really gonna happen? 455 00:25:31,160 --> 00:25:33,840 Speaker 1: There was some new evidence today, some new commentary we 456 00:25:33,880 --> 00:25:38,040 Speaker 1: haven't heard yet, excerpts from testimony, none of it live. 457 00:25:38,359 --> 00:25:41,920 Speaker 1: Each member of the panel took time to take part 458 00:25:42,000 --> 00:25:45,199 Speaker 1: in this exercise today. Typically we've only heard from a 459 00:25:45,240 --> 00:25:47,960 Speaker 1: few in each hearing. We heard from all nine today 460 00:25:48,000 --> 00:25:51,440 Speaker 1: and we're joined now once again by Rebecca Royfe, who 461 00:25:51,480 --> 00:25:53,800 Speaker 1: was with us earlier in this whole process and back 462 00:25:53,800 --> 00:25:58,040 Speaker 1: today to talk to us on Bloomberg. Joseph Solomon, Distinguished 463 00:25:58,080 --> 00:26:01,440 Speaker 1: Professor of Law at New York Law School, former Assistant 464 00:26:01,440 --> 00:26:03,760 Speaker 1: District Attorney for New York County, is great to have 465 00:26:03,840 --> 00:26:06,680 Speaker 1: you back here, Rebecca. Let's start with the matter at hand, 466 00:26:06,680 --> 00:26:10,080 Speaker 1: and that's the vote to compel to subpoena Donald Trump 467 00:26:10,080 --> 00:26:13,200 Speaker 1: to testify. We don't think that is going to happen 468 00:26:13,240 --> 00:26:17,080 Speaker 1: after Republicans take the majority, do we. I don't think 469 00:26:17,119 --> 00:26:20,800 Speaker 1: it's going to happen anyway. The subpoena will go out, 470 00:26:20,880 --> 00:26:23,680 Speaker 1: and he will disregard that subpoena, even if it were 471 00:26:24,160 --> 00:26:28,480 Speaker 1: um to go out before the change in administration or sorry, 472 00:26:28,800 --> 00:26:32,359 Speaker 1: rather the change in makeup of the House of Representatives. 473 00:26:32,560 --> 00:26:35,000 Speaker 1: So you know, I think this was more a symbolic 474 00:26:35,040 --> 00:26:39,800 Speaker 1: act than it was an act designed to actually obtain 475 00:26:39,920 --> 00:26:43,960 Speaker 1: his testimony or documents from him. If Democrats somehow keep 476 00:26:44,000 --> 00:26:46,440 Speaker 1: the House in this committee remains a going concern. Is 477 00:26:46,440 --> 00:26:49,840 Speaker 1: that a different story? I really don't think it is. 478 00:26:49,880 --> 00:26:52,480 Speaker 1: I mean, I think he's going to resist that subpoena, 479 00:26:52,720 --> 00:26:56,160 Speaker 1: and we've seen before that, you know, then Congress can 480 00:26:56,240 --> 00:26:59,280 Speaker 1: perhaps refer this to the entire House, and then if 481 00:26:59,320 --> 00:27:02,159 Speaker 1: the House remain and Democratic, they could perhaps make a 482 00:27:02,200 --> 00:27:04,680 Speaker 1: referral to the Department of Justice. But I really don't 483 00:27:04,720 --> 00:27:08,680 Speaker 1: think imagine the Department of Justice would pursue contempt of 484 00:27:08,760 --> 00:27:12,080 Speaker 1: Congress case against the former president. We heard some pretty 485 00:27:12,359 --> 00:27:16,760 Speaker 1: interesting and in many cases, very compelling moments from that day. 486 00:27:16,800 --> 00:27:21,440 Speaker 1: There was new security footage, or it wasn't even security footage. 487 00:27:21,480 --> 00:27:24,880 Speaker 1: There was new cell phone footage of the Democratic leadership, 488 00:27:24,960 --> 00:27:29,040 Speaker 1: Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer making frantic phone calls from 489 00:27:29,080 --> 00:27:32,880 Speaker 1: their secure locations. We also heard from Adam Kinzinger, who 490 00:27:32,920 --> 00:27:35,119 Speaker 1: brought us to a moment that I don't think anyone 491 00:27:35,200 --> 00:27:37,920 Speaker 1: knew about until today, at least that when Donald Trump 492 00:27:38,560 --> 00:27:40,760 Speaker 1: essentially knew he was leaving the White House, he made 493 00:27:41,080 --> 00:27:44,080 Speaker 1: a very specific order. Listen to Adam Kinzinger, knowing he 494 00:27:44,119 --> 00:27:48,440 Speaker 1: was leaving office, he acted immediately and signed this order 495 00:27:48,520 --> 00:27:52,440 Speaker 1: on November eleven, which would have required the immediate withdrawal 496 00:27:52,480 --> 00:27:56,800 Speaker 1: of troops from Somalia and Afghanistan, all to be complete 497 00:27:57,160 --> 00:28:01,560 Speaker 1: before the Biden inauguration on January twenty. That is remarkable 498 00:28:01,600 --> 00:28:03,640 Speaker 1: and could get buried in so much of the other 499 00:28:03,720 --> 00:28:06,400 Speaker 1: material that we heard about today, but remarkable as well 500 00:28:06,440 --> 00:28:09,800 Speaker 1: to hear the reaction from General Keith Kellogg, who made 501 00:28:09,960 --> 00:28:13,520 Speaker 1: his feelings clear on the matter, proceeded to tell the 502 00:28:13,560 --> 00:28:24,720 Speaker 1: po and proceeded to tell but Gregor that if I 503 00:28:24,760 --> 00:28:30,880 Speaker 1: ever saw anything like that, UM, I would do shut 504 00:28:30,920 --> 00:28:34,400 Speaker 1: the physical, would do something physical. Is this just kind 505 00:28:34,400 --> 00:28:38,080 Speaker 1: of fulfilling the narrative you're or filling in the narrative 506 00:28:38,120 --> 00:28:40,520 Speaker 1: about what happened that day, Rebecca, Or are there legal 507 00:28:40,560 --> 00:28:44,920 Speaker 1: implications to this type of testimony? Well, I mean, I 508 00:28:44,960 --> 00:28:47,160 Speaker 1: think it's filling in the narrative in an important way 509 00:28:47,200 --> 00:28:49,880 Speaker 1: that does have legal implications. I mean, in part, it's 510 00:28:49,960 --> 00:28:53,640 Speaker 1: part of a longer piece of testimony that came from 511 00:28:53,720 --> 00:28:58,040 Speaker 1: various different sources that the president himself UM privately and 512 00:28:58,160 --> 00:29:01,800 Speaker 1: to his closet advisors, admit that he had lost the election. 513 00:29:01,920 --> 00:29:07,160 Speaker 1: He was acting like a UM president who was about 514 00:29:07,200 --> 00:29:09,480 Speaker 1: to leave office in a number of ways, including that 515 00:29:09,560 --> 00:29:13,320 Speaker 1: shocking one, and that you know that is inconsistent with 516 00:29:13,400 --> 00:29:16,040 Speaker 1: what he was saying to the American public and what 517 00:29:16,160 --> 00:29:19,720 Speaker 1: he was insisting on in these various different ways. And 518 00:29:19,840 --> 00:29:22,520 Speaker 1: so that is crucial evidence of what his state of 519 00:29:22,600 --> 00:29:26,440 Speaker 1: mind was he certainly Um does not does not seem 520 00:29:26,560 --> 00:29:30,840 Speaker 1: that he himself believed that the election was stolen if. 521 00:29:30,960 --> 00:29:35,240 Speaker 1: During this time he had essentially acted as if and 522 00:29:35,320 --> 00:29:38,360 Speaker 1: said as much as his as the d loss, but 523 00:29:38,400 --> 00:29:41,480 Speaker 1: he was still fighting to hold onto power. Emails the 524 00:29:41,480 --> 00:29:44,600 Speaker 1: Secret Service received this is the day before and day 525 00:29:44,640 --> 00:29:49,360 Speaker 1: after Christmas said protesters were quote armed and ready unquote 526 00:29:49,920 --> 00:29:53,600 Speaker 1: their plan quote is to literally kill people. There were 527 00:29:53,640 --> 00:29:56,000 Speaker 1: tips as well the Proud Boys planned to march armed 528 00:29:56,040 --> 00:29:58,600 Speaker 1: to the Capitol. Have they succeeded in connecting the dots? 529 00:30:00,640 --> 00:30:02,680 Speaker 1: I mean, you know, I think that that's part of 530 00:30:02,720 --> 00:30:07,160 Speaker 1: why it was so significant to subpoena the former president, 531 00:30:07,240 --> 00:30:10,880 Speaker 1: because they have gotten those dots so close together, and 532 00:30:11,000 --> 00:30:13,720 Speaker 1: yet there are some lines that remained to be drawn. 533 00:30:13,800 --> 00:30:15,760 Speaker 1: And what the indication was at the end of that 534 00:30:15,880 --> 00:30:19,600 Speaker 1: hearing was that the only person Um who could or 535 00:30:19,640 --> 00:30:23,880 Speaker 1: people who could uh connect those dots have either pled 536 00:30:23,920 --> 00:30:28,080 Speaker 1: the fifth or are Donald Trump. And so without the 537 00:30:28,160 --> 00:30:31,560 Speaker 1: testimony of those people, we are left to infer what 538 00:30:31,760 --> 00:30:34,440 Speaker 1: actually happened. And I think you know that it was 539 00:30:34,560 --> 00:30:38,120 Speaker 1: no accident that right before they took that vote they 540 00:30:38,160 --> 00:30:40,800 Speaker 1: had video footage of all of those who were so 541 00:30:40,880 --> 00:30:44,000 Speaker 1: close to the presidents leading the Fifth in response to 542 00:30:44,080 --> 00:30:47,760 Speaker 1: questions because what they were leaving their viewers with was 543 00:30:47,760 --> 00:30:50,240 Speaker 1: with sense that, you know, why would they plead the 544 00:30:50,280 --> 00:30:55,120 Speaker 1: fifth about these final last conversations with the president if 545 00:30:55,160 --> 00:30:58,760 Speaker 1: there was nothing there? And his lap to say, you know, 546 00:30:58,840 --> 00:31:02,479 Speaker 1: you're the only person who can controversy for this clear 547 00:31:03,200 --> 00:31:05,600 Speaker 1: assumption that ought to be made from the evidence that 548 00:31:05,640 --> 00:31:07,800 Speaker 1: we've heard. And I don't think he'll do it, but 549 00:31:07,880 --> 00:31:09,720 Speaker 1: I think that was, you know, the gauntlet that was 550 00:31:09,840 --> 00:31:12,320 Speaker 1: laid one man who made great use of the Fifth 551 00:31:12,600 --> 00:31:17,720 Speaker 1: Roger Stone, Listen, violence on January six was justified on 552 00:31:17,840 --> 00:31:21,400 Speaker 1: the advice of counsel, I respectfully declined to answer your 553 00:31:21,480 --> 00:31:24,959 Speaker 1: question on the basis of the Fifth Amendments videotape. Did 554 00:31:25,000 --> 00:31:27,840 Speaker 1: you have any role in planning for the violence on 555 00:31:27,920 --> 00:31:32,040 Speaker 1: January six? Once again, I will assert my Fifth Amendment 556 00:31:32,120 --> 00:31:34,680 Speaker 1: right to decline to answer your question. Roger Stone got 557 00:31:34,680 --> 00:31:39,880 Speaker 1: a presidential pardon, Rebecca, what's his future look like legally? Well, 558 00:31:39,920 --> 00:31:42,840 Speaker 1: you know, I again, I don't know. You know, the 559 00:31:43,200 --> 00:31:47,960 Speaker 1: presidential pardon um certainly provides him with a kind of 560 00:31:48,000 --> 00:31:51,920 Speaker 1: shield against many consequences that that might happen. I certainly 561 00:31:51,960 --> 00:31:55,880 Speaker 1: he could still face um repercussions in the state if 562 00:31:55,920 --> 00:31:59,120 Speaker 1: he if he is liable in any state for criminal activity. 563 00:31:59,120 --> 00:32:02,720 Speaker 1: But um, you know, I it certainly remains to be seen. 564 00:32:03,040 --> 00:32:05,480 Speaker 1: I have to ask you. It's it's somewhat unrelated. But 565 00:32:05,520 --> 00:32:07,960 Speaker 1: I don't always have Rebecca roy Fee on the phone. 566 00:32:07,960 --> 00:32:11,120 Speaker 1: The Supreme Court today handing Donald Trump a loss has 567 00:32:11,120 --> 00:32:12,960 Speaker 1: happened the same day as this hearing in his fight 568 00:32:13,000 --> 00:32:16,520 Speaker 1: over records from maral Lago, the documents case, refusing to 569 00:32:16,600 --> 00:32:21,320 Speaker 1: intervene and reinstate the Special master's authority to review some 570 00:32:21,360 --> 00:32:26,280 Speaker 1: classified documents. Uh. Does that give the Department of Justice 571 00:32:26,440 --> 00:32:29,200 Speaker 1: the upper hand to start moving forward with its case 572 00:32:29,320 --> 00:32:32,280 Speaker 1: or has it been doing so behind the scenes this 573 00:32:32,320 --> 00:32:34,920 Speaker 1: whole time? Yes, I mean I think it has been 574 00:32:34,920 --> 00:32:38,320 Speaker 1: doing so. It has been proceeding. Nobody expected that the 575 00:32:38,320 --> 00:32:41,880 Speaker 1: Supreme Court would take up that case. It was decided 576 00:32:41,960 --> 00:32:46,320 Speaker 1: and well argued and well reasoned in the Eleventh Circuit, 577 00:32:46,480 --> 00:32:50,440 Speaker 1: and it seemed, um, you know, quite a stretch that um, 578 00:32:50,720 --> 00:32:52,920 Speaker 1: the former president would think that the Supreme Court would 579 00:32:52,960 --> 00:32:55,360 Speaker 1: take up this case. But um, you know, I know 580 00:32:55,480 --> 00:32:58,840 Speaker 1: he believed in some sense that the Supreme Court justice 581 00:32:58,880 --> 00:33:02,239 Speaker 1: of whom he appointed owe him something that that's not 582 00:33:02,320 --> 00:33:04,680 Speaker 1: the way the judiciary works, and I really doubt that 583 00:33:04,720 --> 00:33:07,200 Speaker 1: they feel that way. As far as the d o 584 00:33:07,280 --> 00:33:11,400 Speaker 1: J goes with the January sixth committee, I know it 585 00:33:11,480 --> 00:33:14,960 Speaker 1: there's been confusion about whether they would make a criminal referral, 586 00:33:14,960 --> 00:33:16,440 Speaker 1: but we now know the d o J is well 587 00:33:16,520 --> 00:33:19,520 Speaker 1: underway with its own case. Did the committee help the 588 00:33:19,600 --> 00:33:22,760 Speaker 1: d o J in its investigation or was this truly 589 00:33:23,200 --> 00:33:27,200 Speaker 1: a political exercise or an exercise for the sake of history? 590 00:33:27,800 --> 00:33:30,560 Speaker 1: So you know, I I imagine that Merrick Garland was 591 00:33:30,560 --> 00:33:33,440 Speaker 1: certainly paying attention to these hearings but said that the 592 00:33:33,520 --> 00:33:36,200 Speaker 1: investigation was well underway. It was underway, we now know, 593 00:33:36,440 --> 00:33:40,560 Speaker 1: from before the January six hearings even commenced. So you know, 594 00:33:40,640 --> 00:33:42,800 Speaker 1: I don't think that there's any reason to think or 595 00:33:42,840 --> 00:33:46,320 Speaker 1: assume that Merrick Garland is taking his cue from the 596 00:33:46,760 --> 00:33:49,720 Speaker 1: hearings or from Congress, and as well he shouldn't. I 597 00:33:49,760 --> 00:33:53,480 Speaker 1: think it's a that is a separate investigation that's proceeding 598 00:33:53,880 --> 00:33:57,600 Speaker 1: in its own um pace and and and not influenced 599 00:33:57,600 --> 00:34:01,440 Speaker 1: in any way by the January six here, So you know, no, 600 00:34:01,600 --> 00:34:05,280 Speaker 1: I I don't. I don't think so. Rebecca Roy for you. 601 00:34:05,400 --> 00:34:07,200 Speaker 1: Great to have you from New York Law School, former 602 00:34:07,200 --> 00:34:09,319 Speaker 1: assistant d A New York County. It's great to have 603 00:34:09,360 --> 00:34:11,239 Speaker 1: you back on Bloomberg as we try to get our 604 00:34:11,280 --> 00:34:14,840 Speaker 1: hands around everything that we saw and heard today in 605 00:34:14,880 --> 00:34:18,080 Speaker 1: this hearing. Of course, well I'm always watching, so you 606 00:34:18,120 --> 00:34:22,319 Speaker 1: don't have to. And the moment that I described, see 607 00:34:22,320 --> 00:34:25,520 Speaker 1: this aid I guess took this film this video on 608 00:34:25,560 --> 00:34:29,640 Speaker 1: a cell phone walking backwards looking at Chuck Schumer Nancy 609 00:34:29,680 --> 00:34:32,080 Speaker 1: Pelosi plowed through the hall with their security into the 610 00:34:32,160 --> 00:34:35,520 Speaker 1: undisclosed location and they started making frantic phone calls, in 611 00:34:35,560 --> 00:34:42,840 Speaker 1: this case to the Secretary of Defense inside the building. 612 00:34:45,719 --> 00:34:49,360 Speaker 1: I'm gonna call up the Secretary of Deal. We have 613 00:34:49,480 --> 00:34:52,480 Speaker 1: some senators who were still in their hideaways. They need 614 00:34:52,600 --> 00:34:55,879 Speaker 1: massive personnel. Now, can you get the Maryland National Guard 615 00:34:55,960 --> 00:34:59,160 Speaker 1: to come to I have something to say, Mr Secretary 616 00:34:59,160 --> 00:35:03,320 Speaker 1: of in the same Washington d C. Right now, and 617 00:35:03,480 --> 00:35:10,320 Speaker 1: see what other outbreach he has. Other voice departments mentioned 618 00:35:12,080 --> 00:35:15,360 Speaker 1: whether this leads to any sort of criminal prosecution. Chilling 619 00:35:15,400 --> 00:35:18,720 Speaker 1: to know what actually happened that day. Thanks for joining 620 00:35:18,800 --> 00:35:20,800 Speaker 1: us on the fastest hour in politics. I don't know 621 00:35:20,840 --> 00:35:22,719 Speaker 1: how we fit it all in today, but we will. 622 00:35:24,800 --> 00:35:27,279 Speaker 1: So what was new? What did we learn? Number one, 623 00:35:27,320 --> 00:35:29,120 Speaker 1: and this is all played out for you in a 624 00:35:29,239 --> 00:35:32,160 Speaker 1: very nice piece by Laura Davison and mart Niquette on 625 00:35:32,200 --> 00:35:35,799 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Takeaways today and one the committee still investigating. 626 00:35:35,800 --> 00:35:38,160 Speaker 1: We know that we got the vote to subpoena Donald Trump. 627 00:35:38,360 --> 00:35:40,759 Speaker 1: By the way, a final report has not come out yet. 628 00:35:40,840 --> 00:35:45,919 Speaker 1: That's likely to happen after the mid terms. To Donald 629 00:35:45,920 --> 00:35:48,480 Speaker 1: Trump knew he lost the election and fought the results anyway, 630 00:35:48,520 --> 00:35:54,000 Speaker 1: that was made clear repeatedly during Zoe Lofgren's period here. Uh, 631 00:35:54,600 --> 00:35:59,719 Speaker 1: having spoken with everyone who was around him that day, 632 00:36:00,080 --> 00:36:02,920 Speaker 1: the congressional leaders made frantic phone calls. I just played 633 00:36:02,960 --> 00:36:06,480 Speaker 1: that for you, a series of shaky videos showing Nancy Pelosi, 634 00:36:06,560 --> 00:36:08,759 Speaker 1: Chuck Schumer and by the way, Mitch McConnell there too, 635 00:36:08,760 --> 00:36:12,000 Speaker 1: getting updates from their staffs about the damage occurring to 636 00:36:12,080 --> 00:36:14,239 Speaker 1: the building and what was going on outside. Here's another 637 00:36:14,280 --> 00:36:17,359 Speaker 1: taste of that. They're breaking windows and going in uh 638 00:36:18,440 --> 00:36:22,319 Speaker 1: obviously rent sacking our offices and all the rest of that. 639 00:36:22,320 --> 00:36:28,920 Speaker 1: That's nothing. The concerned we have about personal safety. Personal 640 00:36:29,040 --> 00:36:32,799 Speaker 1: safety is to just transcend everything. But the fact is, 641 00:36:32,880 --> 00:36:36,040 Speaker 1: on any given day, they're breaking the law in many 642 00:36:36,160 --> 00:36:40,120 Speaker 1: different ways, and quite frankly, much of it at the 643 00:36:40,160 --> 00:36:44,000 Speaker 1: instigation of the President of the United States. And now 644 00:36:44,960 --> 00:36:48,120 Speaker 1: if he could could at least somebody, why don't you 645 00:36:48,160 --> 00:36:50,400 Speaker 1: get the president to tell them to leave the capital? 646 00:36:50,600 --> 00:36:54,640 Speaker 1: Mr Attorney General, in your law enforcement responsibility a public 647 00:36:54,719 --> 00:36:57,319 Speaker 1: statement they should all leave. On the phone with the 648 00:36:57,320 --> 00:37:01,920 Speaker 1: then acting Attorney General, Adam shift California of course on 649 00:37:01,960 --> 00:37:06,960 Speaker 1: the committee says they received almost one million emails, now, recordings, 650 00:37:06,960 --> 00:37:09,680 Speaker 1: and other electronic records from the Secret Service. They're still 651 00:37:09,680 --> 00:37:13,360 Speaker 1: reviewing them, but as I mentioned, some of them are remarkable. 652 00:37:13,400 --> 00:37:16,040 Speaker 1: The plan is literally to kill people, they said, referring 653 00:37:16,080 --> 00:37:18,799 Speaker 1: to tips at the Proud Boys planned to march armed 654 00:37:18,800 --> 00:37:23,040 Speaker 1: to the Capitol. Number five is that the President sought 655 00:37:23,600 --> 00:37:27,400 Speaker 1: a last ditch effort for an Afghanistan withdrawal. That was 656 00:37:27,440 --> 00:37:30,280 Speaker 1: pretty remarkable. As I played for you earlier from Adam Kinzinger, 657 00:37:30,320 --> 00:37:33,319 Speaker 1: that was something we did not know about, including the 658 00:37:33,360 --> 00:37:37,320 Speaker 1: reaction from the National Security Advisor to Mike Pence. General 659 00:37:37,400 --> 00:37:39,319 Speaker 1: Keith Kell obviously is about to get physical. To keep 660 00:37:39,320 --> 00:37:41,160 Speaker 1: it from happening. Mark Millie, the Chair of the Joint 661 00:37:41,200 --> 00:37:44,839 Speaker 1: chiefs of Staff, essentially had to stand in the way 662 00:37:44,880 --> 00:37:48,560 Speaker 1: of this order to withdraw immediately withdraw troops from Afghanistan 663 00:37:48,719 --> 00:37:52,880 Speaker 1: and Somalia. There was so much we we didn't know, 664 00:37:53,440 --> 00:37:56,280 Speaker 1: and likely we still don't know. Let's reassemble the panel. 665 00:37:57,000 --> 00:38:00,840 Speaker 1: Genie Chanzano, Democratic analyst, and of course Bloomberg Paul Tis contributor, 666 00:38:01,000 --> 00:38:05,319 Speaker 1: is here, joined today by Lisa Kamusa Miller back with us, 667 00:38:05,360 --> 00:38:09,200 Speaker 1: former calms director from the Republican National Committee, a public 668 00:38:09,200 --> 00:38:12,760 Speaker 1: affairs strategist. It's great to have you both with us here. Genie, 669 00:38:13,000 --> 00:38:16,040 Speaker 1: another remarkable exercise today. It's very difficult to tell if 670 00:38:16,040 --> 00:38:18,120 Speaker 1: this is going to lead to anything. Was there enough 671 00:38:18,160 --> 00:38:21,879 Speaker 1: new information to justify the hearing? You know, I think 672 00:38:21,920 --> 00:38:25,239 Speaker 1: there was. I was a little bit pessimistic going into this, 673 00:38:25,400 --> 00:38:27,359 Speaker 1: wondering how they were going to do this. They had 674 00:38:27,360 --> 00:38:30,040 Speaker 1: the delay because of the storm. We knew there would 675 00:38:30,040 --> 00:38:33,279 Speaker 1: be no live witnesses. But I think they did give 676 00:38:33,400 --> 00:38:37,480 Speaker 1: us and you just reiterated a laundry list of new information. 677 00:38:37,600 --> 00:38:40,279 Speaker 1: I mean, I have to say, the the order for 678 00:38:40,360 --> 00:38:45,080 Speaker 1: the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan and Somalia is absolutely chilling. 679 00:38:45,520 --> 00:38:48,160 Speaker 1: I think this committee all along has done a brilliant 680 00:38:48,239 --> 00:38:52,799 Speaker 1: job using video documentary evidence of that kind. And the 681 00:38:52,920 --> 00:38:57,759 Speaker 1: video from Fort McNair showing the bipartisan group you know, 682 00:38:57,880 --> 00:39:02,040 Speaker 1: Chuck Schumer, Nancy Plosa, but also publican governors, Mike Pence 683 00:39:02,120 --> 00:39:07,080 Speaker 1: and others, shot by Alexandra Pelosi, the Speaker's daughter, who's 684 00:39:07,080 --> 00:39:11,680 Speaker 1: also a documentarian, is absolutely stunning and and there's about 685 00:39:11,719 --> 00:39:14,360 Speaker 1: forty minutes of it, we understand. And you put that 686 00:39:14,400 --> 00:39:16,759 Speaker 1: in contrast with what was happening at the White House, 687 00:39:16,760 --> 00:39:19,279 Speaker 1: which as far as we can trail, the President was 688 00:39:19,320 --> 00:39:22,720 Speaker 1: sitting in an office flipping through his phone doing nothing. 689 00:39:23,120 --> 00:39:25,400 Speaker 1: That also was very chilling. So I thought they had 690 00:39:25,400 --> 00:39:28,280 Speaker 1: a lot of new information, whether it amounts to anything 691 00:39:28,360 --> 00:39:31,520 Speaker 1: or not. They had the dramatic finish of the symbolic act. 692 00:39:31,560 --> 00:39:34,080 Speaker 1: I agree with your guest of the subpoena of Donald Trump. 693 00:39:34,320 --> 00:39:37,680 Speaker 1: It was a remarkable hearing, uh that may be seen 694 00:39:37,680 --> 00:39:40,000 Speaker 1: a show business at the end there, Lisa, I realized. 695 00:39:40,040 --> 00:39:43,160 Speaker 1: But this revelation, specifically that the President in fact signed 696 00:39:43,280 --> 00:39:46,640 Speaker 1: orders that were not carried out to to have a 697 00:39:46,480 --> 00:39:50,279 Speaker 1: an immediate withdrawal of forces from Afghanistan and Somalia, does 698 00:39:50,360 --> 00:39:56,560 Speaker 1: that damage Republicans argument that Joe Biden botched the withdrawal. Oh, 699 00:39:56,640 --> 00:39:58,160 Speaker 1: I don't know. It might be too little, too late. 700 00:39:58,160 --> 00:39:59,719 Speaker 1: I mean, I think that the damage has been done 701 00:39:59,760 --> 00:40:02,320 Speaker 1: to the president um as it relates to how that 702 00:40:02,320 --> 00:40:05,440 Speaker 1: that withdrawal was man managed. But Joe, I mean, I 703 00:40:05,440 --> 00:40:06,960 Speaker 1: think the thing that we have to take away from 704 00:40:07,000 --> 00:40:08,800 Speaker 1: all of this is that Donald Trump continues to be 705 00:40:08,840 --> 00:40:12,800 Speaker 1: a gigantic distraction to action in Washington, d C. Action, 706 00:40:13,000 --> 00:40:16,640 Speaker 1: How do you mean action in all forces? There are 707 00:40:16,680 --> 00:40:18,320 Speaker 1: so many other things that need to be addressed, and 708 00:40:18,360 --> 00:40:21,360 Speaker 1: here we are investigating the former president for his actions 709 00:40:21,360 --> 00:40:23,920 Speaker 1: and his role in January six. He's not only that, 710 00:40:23,960 --> 00:40:26,320 Speaker 1: but he's also overlaying all of that into the midterm 711 00:40:26,360 --> 00:40:31,080 Speaker 1: elections while he's still playing the celebrity apprentice. Leaders like 712 00:40:31,280 --> 00:40:34,799 Speaker 1: Mitch McConnell and uh IN leader McCarthy are trying to 713 00:40:34,840 --> 00:40:38,080 Speaker 1: win back the majority and that's in both houses. So 714 00:40:38,120 --> 00:40:39,799 Speaker 1: what do you do you feel like this was a 715 00:40:39,840 --> 00:40:43,680 Speaker 1: distraction for Republicans? Then? Was this then? Uh? Not worth 716 00:40:43,840 --> 00:40:46,200 Speaker 1: the time? It's absolutely a distraction, and it's and it's 717 00:40:46,280 --> 00:40:48,600 Speaker 1: unfair because this is the former president. This is the 718 00:40:48,640 --> 00:40:52,760 Speaker 1: most any former president has ever uh interfered or not interfered, 719 00:40:52,760 --> 00:40:54,960 Speaker 1: but have been involved in the mid term election because 720 00:40:55,000 --> 00:40:58,919 Speaker 1: Trump is he's identifying candidates and he's speaking into candidatesas 721 00:40:58,960 --> 00:41:01,799 Speaker 1: also being investigated by former by members on the Hill. 722 00:41:01,960 --> 00:41:04,160 Speaker 1: So it's unfair of Trump, is what you're saying. Yeah, 723 00:41:04,239 --> 00:41:06,919 Speaker 1: absolutely unfair of Trump, because the party itself is ready. 724 00:41:06,920 --> 00:41:09,240 Speaker 1: They're ready to move forward. They're ready to move ahead, 725 00:41:09,239 --> 00:41:11,120 Speaker 1: and they're ready to get some things done for the 726 00:41:11,160 --> 00:41:13,440 Speaker 1: American people. How does you know Kevin McCarthy, who you 727 00:41:13,840 --> 00:41:16,800 Speaker 1: referenced reconcile his evolution on this, I mean the tape 728 00:41:16,840 --> 00:41:19,400 Speaker 1: on him, uh, you know, saying he was going to 729 00:41:19,480 --> 00:41:21,600 Speaker 1: call Donald Trump. He did call Donald Trump. He went 730 00:41:21,640 --> 00:41:24,200 Speaker 1: from one extreme to the other. And the famous picture 731 00:41:25,000 --> 00:41:27,880 Speaker 1: now of him at maral Lago with with Donald Trump 732 00:41:27,960 --> 00:41:31,000 Speaker 1: has angered a lot of people. But he clearly thought 733 00:41:31,000 --> 00:41:34,760 Speaker 1: that he could not get the majority without Donald Trump. Lisa, 734 00:41:34,800 --> 00:41:37,319 Speaker 1: don't you agree? Yes? I do. And I think that 735 00:41:37,320 --> 00:41:40,120 Speaker 1: this his role in in the leadership in the House 736 00:41:40,239 --> 00:41:44,040 Speaker 1: is even more complicated than it was previously with Speaker 737 00:41:44,080 --> 00:41:46,040 Speaker 1: Baynor and with Speaker Ryan. I mean, they had the 738 00:41:46,080 --> 00:41:49,759 Speaker 1: Tea Party to contend with. McCarthy has a much much 739 00:41:49,800 --> 00:41:52,120 Speaker 1: bigger obstacles to get past, and so he's had to 740 00:41:52,120 --> 00:41:54,680 Speaker 1: start a figure out how to remedy and bring together 741 00:41:54,719 --> 00:41:58,200 Speaker 1: this this this caucus that is just completely broken in half. 742 00:41:58,880 --> 00:42:01,160 Speaker 1: So what's going to be the takeaway on this genie? 743 00:42:01,160 --> 00:42:05,560 Speaker 1: Republicans have been clearly using Donald Trump in many cases 744 00:42:05,600 --> 00:42:09,240 Speaker 1: to win primaries and set up a majority in the House. 745 00:42:09,280 --> 00:42:13,799 Speaker 1: Here in some cases those have not been the establishment candidates, 746 00:42:14,480 --> 00:42:16,640 Speaker 1: but Donald Trump has been pretty good for a lot 747 00:42:16,640 --> 00:42:20,040 Speaker 1: of these uh candidates, whether they be for House or Senate. 748 00:42:20,880 --> 00:42:22,920 Speaker 1: I guess it's gonna take some time for this to 749 00:42:22,960 --> 00:42:25,200 Speaker 1: settle out as to what was what was the most 750 00:42:25,239 --> 00:42:27,880 Speaker 1: effective move for Republicans to take power. And that's not 751 00:42:27,920 --> 00:42:32,319 Speaker 1: to be confused with with what is the most principled move? Yeah, 752 00:42:32,320 --> 00:42:35,440 Speaker 1: I mean another complication here is President Trump. Former President 753 00:42:35,480 --> 00:42:37,880 Speaker 1: Trump is not only a former president, he is also 754 00:42:38,040 --> 00:42:41,160 Speaker 1: likely the leading candidate for the Republican nomination for the 755 00:42:41,200 --> 00:42:44,839 Speaker 1: presidency in four He also has played a more active role, 756 00:42:44,880 --> 00:42:47,600 Speaker 1: to your point, in getting candidates on the ballot for 757 00:42:47,640 --> 00:42:50,439 Speaker 1: the House and the Senate, and let's not forget first 758 00:42:50,480 --> 00:42:53,759 Speaker 1: state and local races than any former president has. So 759 00:42:53,840 --> 00:42:57,520 Speaker 1: he's very much a leader, the leader of this party. 760 00:42:57,600 --> 00:43:02,000 Speaker 1: And if the Republicans lose a state like Georgia, for instance, 761 00:43:02,080 --> 00:43:05,600 Speaker 1: and potentially lose the Senate. That'll be once again at 762 00:43:05,640 --> 00:43:09,000 Speaker 1: Donald Trump's hands, which is why Democrats want to talk 763 00:43:09,000 --> 00:43:12,280 Speaker 1: about Donald Trump as much as they can. It's effective 764 00:43:12,320 --> 00:43:15,839 Speaker 1: for them, but it's not effective obviously for Republicans in 765 00:43:15,880 --> 00:43:18,160 Speaker 1: the general in some of these states where it's going 766 00:43:18,200 --> 00:43:21,600 Speaker 1: to come down to winning these suburbs and particularly amongst 767 00:43:21,640 --> 00:43:24,719 Speaker 1: these women. So it's a very complicated position to be in. 768 00:43:25,040 --> 00:43:27,920 Speaker 1: And I think one thing that Liz Cheney said today 769 00:43:27,920 --> 00:43:31,759 Speaker 1: that we should underscore is she said, this is about accountability. 770 00:43:31,800 --> 00:43:34,680 Speaker 1: If he is not held accountable, it is likely to 771 00:43:34,760 --> 00:43:37,200 Speaker 1: happen again. And as we look at the polls, this 772 00:43:37,280 --> 00:43:39,719 Speaker 1: is exactly what many voters are telling us. For the 773 00:43:39,800 --> 00:43:43,160 Speaker 1: first time, we're seeing democracy on the ballot in a 774 00:43:43,200 --> 00:43:45,880 Speaker 1: midterm election in a way we haven't seen it in 775 00:43:45,920 --> 00:43:48,839 Speaker 1: the modern era. Lisa. We know that there are big 776 00:43:48,880 --> 00:43:52,239 Speaker 1: plans for Republicans if they do take the majority of 777 00:43:52,239 --> 00:43:56,360 Speaker 1: assuming this happens in the House, with a series of 778 00:43:56,360 --> 00:43:59,680 Speaker 1: investigations that are planned, they're going to immediately dissolve this 779 00:43:59,760 --> 00:44:01,680 Speaker 1: j you are a six committee, and then start, you know, 780 00:44:01,719 --> 00:44:04,960 Speaker 1: as they say, investigating the investigators. Will that be a 781 00:44:05,000 --> 00:44:07,000 Speaker 1: distraction as well, or is that work that needs to 782 00:44:07,000 --> 00:44:11,600 Speaker 1: happen in your view, Well, I think that I think 783 00:44:11,600 --> 00:44:13,520 Speaker 1: it's a distraction, Joe. I mean, honestly, I know that 784 00:44:13,560 --> 00:44:16,120 Speaker 1: they wanted to get back at all of the attacks 785 00:44:16,120 --> 00:44:17,560 Speaker 1: that have come their way. But the truth of it 786 00:44:17,600 --> 00:44:19,239 Speaker 1: is is that the issues are so big right now. 787 00:44:19,280 --> 00:44:21,000 Speaker 1: I mean, you've talked about it all through the hour, 788 00:44:21,360 --> 00:44:24,600 Speaker 1: Inflation in the economy, gas places, these are issues that 789 00:44:24,680 --> 00:44:26,239 Speaker 1: voters are going to the polls about and if the 790 00:44:26,239 --> 00:44:28,960 Speaker 1: Republicans are smart, they will take on that kind of work. 791 00:44:28,960 --> 00:44:31,240 Speaker 1: But they will also charge forward with some very smart 792 00:44:31,239 --> 00:44:34,200 Speaker 1: policy decisions, because otherwise they've only got two years to 793 00:44:34,239 --> 00:44:36,520 Speaker 1: defend their own positioning when we get back to the 794 00:44:36,520 --> 00:44:39,200 Speaker 1: polls in for the presidential and twenty four. I think 795 00:44:39,239 --> 00:44:41,560 Speaker 1: what was Kevin McCarthy says on day one? The first 796 00:44:41,560 --> 00:44:43,359 Speaker 1: thing he was going to do is fire the seven 797 00:44:43,400 --> 00:44:46,600 Speaker 1: thousand h I R S agents, not of course that 798 00:44:46,640 --> 00:44:49,720 Speaker 1: they all haven't been hired. But is that the type 799 00:44:49,719 --> 00:44:52,920 Speaker 1: of messaging that we should expect or or is that 800 00:44:53,000 --> 00:44:56,000 Speaker 1: productive work? But it sure feels like that's the kind 801 00:44:56,000 --> 00:44:57,960 Speaker 1: of messaging that's coming through because I think that he 802 00:44:58,000 --> 00:45:00,680 Speaker 1: knows that there is a whole wave of candidates that 803 00:45:00,719 --> 00:45:03,240 Speaker 1: are coming in that are unlike any kind of candida 804 00:45:03,280 --> 00:45:05,800 Speaker 1: that we've seen prior in the House. That are active, 805 00:45:06,040 --> 00:45:08,759 Speaker 1: they are angry, they are not necessarily as connected to 806 00:45:08,800 --> 00:45:11,040 Speaker 1: corporate America and the pocketbook issues as they have in 807 00:45:11,080 --> 00:45:13,640 Speaker 1: the past. They're coming in with an agenda to break 808 00:45:13,719 --> 00:45:15,640 Speaker 1: things up and change the world. And that's going to 809 00:45:15,719 --> 00:45:18,279 Speaker 1: make it very difficult for Leada McCarthy to keep that 810 00:45:18,320 --> 00:45:20,920 Speaker 1: whole conference together in a way that can be productive. 811 00:45:21,920 --> 00:45:24,440 Speaker 1: So what do they do with the rest of their time? Then, Jennie, 812 00:45:24,520 --> 00:45:26,760 Speaker 1: they release a final report I understand that will follow 813 00:45:26,760 --> 00:45:28,480 Speaker 1: the mid terms. Does that does that even see the 814 00:45:28,560 --> 00:45:31,840 Speaker 1: light of day? You know, we will see that final report. 815 00:45:31,880 --> 00:45:34,160 Speaker 1: We have no you know, it's it's difficult to predict 816 00:45:34,239 --> 00:45:37,080 Speaker 1: what impact that will have. I think on history. Will 817 00:45:37,120 --> 00:45:39,439 Speaker 1: have a real big impact. That will take some time. 818 00:45:39,760 --> 00:45:42,120 Speaker 1: But let's not forget. If the GOP does take over 819 00:45:42,160 --> 00:45:45,040 Speaker 1: the House, all of the evidence that the committee collected 820 00:45:45,360 --> 00:45:48,319 Speaker 1: goes into their hands. So a big question coming out 821 00:45:48,320 --> 00:45:51,920 Speaker 1: of today was why subpoena Trump and not Pence? Because 822 00:45:51,920 --> 00:45:54,640 Speaker 1: those are the number one and two people involved in this. 823 00:45:55,040 --> 00:45:58,279 Speaker 1: Pence's life was under threat more than anybody else's. And 824 00:45:58,360 --> 00:46:01,520 Speaker 1: yet they decide to subpoena Rump and not Pence. I 825 00:46:01,680 --> 00:46:04,960 Speaker 1: myself have a question about that, as do many people. 826 00:46:05,000 --> 00:46:07,759 Speaker 1: But some people are saying one of the reasons not 827 00:46:07,800 --> 00:46:10,000 Speaker 1: to do it was had they done that and had 828 00:46:10,000 --> 00:46:12,680 Speaker 1: Pennce spoken, all of that evidence would go to the 829 00:46:12,680 --> 00:46:15,520 Speaker 1: GOP if and when they take over. So that is 830 00:46:15,560 --> 00:46:18,680 Speaker 1: a big consideration in a committee hearing like this, and 831 00:46:18,760 --> 00:46:21,239 Speaker 1: so that's something they're going to have to you know, 832 00:46:21,880 --> 00:46:24,560 Speaker 1: depends on who takes over the House obviously, but this 833 00:46:24,640 --> 00:46:27,440 Speaker 1: is where this information will go right to the GOP. 834 00:46:27,840 --> 00:46:30,000 Speaker 1: And should the d o J take action on any 835 00:46:30,040 --> 00:46:33,040 Speaker 1: of this, they will have, you know, at least that 836 00:46:33,160 --> 00:46:36,200 Speaker 1: evidence collected in all of those interviews to know what 837 00:46:36,280 --> 00:46:37,680 Speaker 1: to say and what not to say to the d 838 00:46:37,760 --> 00:46:40,239 Speaker 1: o J. It's really interesting point lia Mike Pence said, 839 00:46:40,280 --> 00:46:42,040 Speaker 1: you know, he would consider it, and he would testify. 840 00:46:42,080 --> 00:46:44,000 Speaker 1: I think we all know that he likes to follow 841 00:46:44,000 --> 00:46:47,040 Speaker 1: the rules. Uh. I just wonder, you know, in our 842 00:46:47,040 --> 00:46:50,319 Speaker 1: remaining moments, how you see his station in life at 843 00:46:50,320 --> 00:46:54,000 Speaker 1: this point, what what is his political career if there 844 00:46:54,120 --> 00:46:58,840 Speaker 1: is one uh promising him following this January six committee, 845 00:46:58,840 --> 00:47:03,080 Speaker 1: Following my goodness, the drama that unfolded on January six, 846 00:47:03,160 --> 00:47:06,240 Speaker 1: and and just the vitriol that so many Trump supporters 847 00:47:06,280 --> 00:47:11,480 Speaker 1: have for him. Well, he is a very principled legislator 848 00:47:11,520 --> 00:47:14,759 Speaker 1: and very very principled human being. And so I do 849 00:47:14,880 --> 00:47:16,920 Speaker 1: think that if you were to ask Mike Pence today, 850 00:47:16,960 --> 00:47:18,920 Speaker 1: I think he sees this as a path forward for 851 00:47:19,000 --> 00:47:21,560 Speaker 1: himself to potentially be a candidate in the future. Now, 852 00:47:21,600 --> 00:47:24,719 Speaker 1: whether or not that is real and and realistic is 853 00:47:24,760 --> 00:47:26,839 Speaker 1: beyond sort of my world. I know Genie probably has 854 00:47:26,840 --> 00:47:29,800 Speaker 1: a perspective on that as it relates to history, But overall, 855 00:47:29,880 --> 00:47:32,200 Speaker 1: I think that he would be very very hard for 856 00:47:32,239 --> 00:47:33,879 Speaker 1: me to figure out how he would have a path 857 00:47:33,920 --> 00:47:36,360 Speaker 1: forward to twenty four. But he's certainly making moves that 858 00:47:36,400 --> 00:47:38,879 Speaker 1: make it look like he is interested. Well, we all 859 00:47:38,920 --> 00:47:41,440 Speaker 1: know that he is. Jennie, he got She's you know, 860 00:47:41,480 --> 00:47:44,480 Speaker 1: he's doing the Iowa State Fair and doing politics and 861 00:47:44,480 --> 00:47:45,880 Speaker 1: eggs and the rest of it. But is that just 862 00:47:45,920 --> 00:47:48,680 Speaker 1: a recovery tour or is that an actual move to 863 00:47:48,800 --> 00:47:50,960 Speaker 1: run for office again? You know, I think he has 864 00:47:51,000 --> 00:47:53,279 Speaker 1: a real interest in running again. Whether he does or 865 00:47:53,320 --> 00:47:55,480 Speaker 1: not is going to depend. But I think historically Liz 866 00:47:55,520 --> 00:47:58,440 Speaker 1: Cheney would tell him put the best interest of the 867 00:47:58,440 --> 00:48:00,920 Speaker 1: country and democracy ahead of your own political interest, and 868 00:48:00,960 --> 00:48:04,520 Speaker 1: I think he should do that. Genie Chanteyo, Lisa Kumuso Miller, 869 00:48:04,560 --> 00:48:07,480 Speaker 1: what a great conversation. You will not hear balanced analysis 870 00:48:07,520 --> 00:48:10,200 Speaker 1: like this anywhere else. That's why you're here. And if 871 00:48:10,200 --> 00:48:13,200 Speaker 1: you showed up late, subscribe to the podcast. I'm Joe Matthew. 872 00:48:13,320 --> 00:48:14,520 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg