1 00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:13,960 Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots Podcast. 2 00:00:14,000 --> 00:00:17,840 Speaker 1: I'm Joe Wise and Paul and I'm Tracy. Allowit Happy 3 00:00:17,880 --> 00:00:21,079 Speaker 1: New Year? Tracy. Oh, you're gonna make me say it 4 00:00:21,280 --> 00:00:24,160 Speaker 1: Happy New Year? Is that something you hate saying? Okay, 5 00:00:24,200 --> 00:00:27,680 Speaker 1: I'm sorry, but I hate saying it like beyond the 6 00:00:27,760 --> 00:00:30,600 Speaker 1: first day afternoon. That's fair because it just goes on 7 00:00:30,640 --> 00:00:32,320 Speaker 1: and on and on for a week, That's fair. It 8 00:00:32,440 --> 00:00:34,599 Speaker 1: just felt like it's been a long time since we've 9 00:00:34,640 --> 00:00:38,000 Speaker 1: recorded one together because we had the holiday disruptions and stuff. 10 00:00:38,159 --> 00:00:41,760 Speaker 1: I was just very excited about back, getting back into 11 00:00:41,800 --> 00:00:44,480 Speaker 1: the rhythm and doing another episode with you. Right, we 12 00:00:44,479 --> 00:00:47,559 Speaker 1: we got the band back together, exactly. I'm also really 13 00:00:47,560 --> 00:00:50,400 Speaker 1: excited about this one because we're going to return to 14 00:00:50,479 --> 00:00:54,760 Speaker 1: one of our favorite topics, a recurring theme throughout Odd Lots, 15 00:00:55,240 --> 00:00:58,280 Speaker 1: and that is bubbles, which I think we both agree 16 00:00:58,440 --> 00:01:02,920 Speaker 1: is just an endless apply, a rich load to mind 17 00:01:03,120 --> 00:01:07,760 Speaker 1: for topics to discuss and markets, absolutely and a fascinating 18 00:01:07,840 --> 00:01:12,400 Speaker 1: experiment in human psychology and how people react to uh 19 00:01:12,560 --> 00:01:14,520 Speaker 1: making a lot of money and then losing a lot 20 00:01:14,560 --> 00:01:16,800 Speaker 1: of money as well. Exactly. I mean, there are so 21 00:01:16,840 --> 00:01:19,800 Speaker 1: many bubbles throughout history and you each have their own 22 00:01:20,040 --> 00:01:24,080 Speaker 1: sort of distinct element, but it seems like the psychology 23 00:01:24,240 --> 00:01:27,760 Speaker 1: element of how humans react to huge price swings on 24 00:01:27,800 --> 00:01:30,200 Speaker 1: the way up to people making a fortune in a 25 00:01:30,240 --> 00:01:34,720 Speaker 1: short period of time is very consistent throughout basically every 26 00:01:34,760 --> 00:01:38,119 Speaker 1: bubble we talk about, and in fact, you even see 27 00:01:38,240 --> 00:01:41,400 Speaker 1: charts that are sort of like the the cliche bubble 28 00:01:41,520 --> 00:01:44,720 Speaker 1: of you know, fear of missing out and optimism and 29 00:01:44,760 --> 00:01:47,280 Speaker 1: then people buy back in at the top and this 30 00:01:47,400 --> 00:01:51,920 Speaker 1: sort of there's a steady psychological component or cycle to 31 00:01:52,040 --> 00:01:57,400 Speaker 1: every bubble that basically is identical. Absolutely, So, which particular 32 00:01:57,480 --> 00:01:59,880 Speaker 1: bubble are we going to be discussing today, Well, today 33 00:02:00,120 --> 00:02:02,160 Speaker 1: going to not only be talking about one of the 34 00:02:02,240 --> 00:02:06,560 Speaker 1: recent most sort of extraordinary topical bubbles of our time. 35 00:02:06,680 --> 00:02:10,639 Speaker 1: We're gonna be talking, of course about bitcoin and crypto 36 00:02:10,760 --> 00:02:16,000 Speaker 1: more broadly. We actually rather talking to some historian or 37 00:02:16,160 --> 00:02:20,079 Speaker 1: some academic who's done a study, we actually have the 38 00:02:20,120 --> 00:02:24,080 Speaker 1: good fortune of talking to someone who participated in the 39 00:02:24,120 --> 00:02:29,640 Speaker 1: bubble on the upside and the downside, someone directly involved 40 00:02:29,680 --> 00:02:32,040 Speaker 1: with it, so we can hear, you know, straight from 41 00:02:32,040 --> 00:02:36,000 Speaker 1: the source, what it's like to ride an extreme bubble. 42 00:02:36,680 --> 00:02:39,960 Speaker 1: Our guest today, recently, uh did a tweet storm in 43 00:02:39,960 --> 00:02:42,200 Speaker 1: which he talked about starting with a very small amount 44 00:02:42,240 --> 00:02:45,440 Speaker 1: of money and making an absolute fortune in a crypto 45 00:02:45,680 --> 00:02:49,079 Speaker 1: and most of it made in and then seeing much 46 00:02:49,080 --> 00:02:53,920 Speaker 1: of it deteriorate in eighteen So we get to we 47 00:02:53,960 --> 00:02:55,680 Speaker 1: get to go right for the source, I would say 48 00:02:55,680 --> 00:02:59,399 Speaker 1: on this one. So I'm really excited about this one 49 00:02:59,639 --> 00:03:03,400 Speaker 1: parta cularly since it's bitcoin and bitcoin it's not just 50 00:03:03,480 --> 00:03:06,600 Speaker 1: a bubble, right, It's almost a belief system. So I'll 51 00:03:06,600 --> 00:03:09,080 Speaker 1: be really interested to hear what our guest has to 52 00:03:09,080 --> 00:03:11,680 Speaker 1: say about whether or not he still believes in all 53 00:03:11,720 --> 00:03:15,240 Speaker 1: things bitcoin slash creep. I agree, and I suspect he 54 00:03:15,320 --> 00:03:18,559 Speaker 1: still does because with us today we have Peter McCormick. 55 00:03:19,320 --> 00:03:21,600 Speaker 1: If you follow him on Twitter, he tweets a lot 56 00:03:21,600 --> 00:03:24,359 Speaker 1: about bitcoin still. He's also the author of his own 57 00:03:24,400 --> 00:03:28,680 Speaker 1: podcast called What Bitcoin Did. So I'm confident on that 58 00:03:28,800 --> 00:03:33,520 Speaker 1: last part, Peter. Peter, thank you very much for joining 59 00:03:33,560 --> 00:03:36,320 Speaker 1: us and telling us about your experience, no worries, Thank 60 00:03:36,360 --> 00:03:38,880 Speaker 1: you for having me on. And Happy New Year, Tracy. 61 00:03:40,160 --> 00:03:44,320 Speaker 1: Oh god, So, Peter, tell us, how did you first 62 00:03:44,320 --> 00:03:48,160 Speaker 1: get into a bitcoin? So really a couple of times. 63 00:03:48,520 --> 00:03:52,320 Speaker 1: I first found it in two thousand thirteen. Um, I 64 00:03:52,440 --> 00:03:56,200 Speaker 1: was worked in tech, so I heard about it and 65 00:03:56,240 --> 00:03:58,800 Speaker 1: I can't remember the website, checked it out. Look kind 66 00:03:58,800 --> 00:04:02,120 Speaker 1: of interested in roade that bubble. For a kind of 67 00:04:02,120 --> 00:04:05,080 Speaker 1: about a week or two, I was trading CFD s 68 00:04:05,080 --> 00:04:10,240 Speaker 1: on plus five and you know, made and lost a 69 00:04:10,280 --> 00:04:12,360 Speaker 1: small amount of money in comparison to the last year, 70 00:04:12,400 --> 00:04:14,680 Speaker 1: and then kind of forgot about it. And then in 71 00:04:14,880 --> 00:04:18,279 Speaker 1: December sixteen. It's quite a sad story, sorry, but my 72 00:04:18,360 --> 00:04:21,560 Speaker 1: mother was dying from cancer and we wanted to get 73 00:04:21,560 --> 00:04:24,919 Speaker 1: a certain treatment for her that was only available for 74 00:04:25,000 --> 00:04:27,760 Speaker 1: purchase with bitcoin. So I said to my dad, I 75 00:04:28,000 --> 00:04:30,640 Speaker 1: can do this. So I went on to Google, did 76 00:04:30,640 --> 00:04:33,839 Speaker 1: a search, found coin base, UM, bought a bitcoin, bought 77 00:04:33,880 --> 00:04:38,120 Speaker 1: the treatment. Sadly she passed away. UM. But my parents 78 00:04:38,160 --> 00:04:40,960 Speaker 1: lived in this like in the middle of nowhere in Ireland, 79 00:04:41,000 --> 00:04:43,160 Speaker 1: so I was out there for a week and I 80 00:04:43,200 --> 00:04:45,920 Speaker 1: just kind of went back on coin Base, transferred the 81 00:04:46,080 --> 00:04:49,479 Speaker 1: leftover bitcoin back and there was this ethereum thing. So 82 00:04:50,200 --> 00:04:52,080 Speaker 1: I was in between. I was out of work. I 83 00:04:52,200 --> 00:04:56,880 Speaker 1: used to have an advertising agency UM that fabulously collapsed 84 00:04:56,920 --> 00:04:59,160 Speaker 1: at one point, and but I had money left over 85 00:04:59,200 --> 00:05:00,840 Speaker 1: from that, so I thought, you know what, I'm going 86 00:05:00,880 --> 00:05:02,640 Speaker 1: to check this out. So I checked out a theoryum 87 00:05:02,680 --> 00:05:05,960 Speaker 1: and bitcoin and the whole journey started. Then I put 88 00:05:06,000 --> 00:05:08,200 Speaker 1: twenty three thousand pounding. I think it's about thirty two 89 00:05:08,200 --> 00:05:09,800 Speaker 1: thousand dollars, which I don't by the way, I don't 90 00:05:09,800 --> 00:05:12,520 Speaker 1: think is a small amount of money. But and just 91 00:05:12,560 --> 00:05:15,960 Speaker 1: went on this epic ride for what's two years. Now. Well, 92 00:05:16,000 --> 00:05:20,559 Speaker 1: I'm sorry to hear about those misfortunes. So you said, um, 93 00:05:20,839 --> 00:05:24,680 Speaker 1: thirty two thousand dollars roughly. How much did you end 94 00:05:24,760 --> 00:05:27,560 Speaker 1: up making at the very top. Well, it's funny, it's 95 00:05:27,560 --> 00:05:29,719 Speaker 1: funny you say that. So I guess I didn't end 96 00:05:29,800 --> 00:05:32,120 Speaker 1: up making any because I didn't cash in. But the 97 00:05:32,200 --> 00:05:35,560 Speaker 1: portfolio value at its peak was over one point two 98 00:05:35,600 --> 00:05:37,839 Speaker 1: million dollars, you know, so what if I was looking 99 00:05:37,839 --> 00:05:40,960 Speaker 1: in my portfolio, that was the value and that was 100 00:05:41,040 --> 00:05:46,720 Speaker 1: about January sev. Now, talk to us about the psychology 101 00:05:46,760 --> 00:05:48,720 Speaker 1: on the way up, because one of the things that 102 00:05:48,800 --> 00:05:53,359 Speaker 1: I find really interesting about bubbles is it feels good 103 00:05:53,400 --> 00:05:57,039 Speaker 1: to make a lot of money and see your net 104 00:05:57,040 --> 00:05:59,800 Speaker 1: worth on the screen continue to go up. But what 105 00:05:59,839 --> 00:06:01,760 Speaker 1: I'm always curious about it is like, did it stress 106 00:06:01,839 --> 00:06:03,920 Speaker 1: you out? Also? On the way Up, Like, did you 107 00:06:04,000 --> 00:06:07,360 Speaker 1: get upset with yourself for not buying more in the beginning, 108 00:06:08,160 --> 00:06:11,800 Speaker 1: did you start to stress out about timing the top? Like, 109 00:06:12,040 --> 00:06:15,560 Speaker 1: talk to us about what that was like from this 110 00:06:15,680 --> 00:06:18,600 Speaker 1: sort of you know, not a nothing investment, a modest 111 00:06:19,080 --> 00:06:22,360 Speaker 1: investment to an extraordinary amount of money. That's sort of 112 00:06:22,600 --> 00:06:24,640 Speaker 1: just let's talk about the psychology of the Way Up 113 00:06:24,680 --> 00:06:27,440 Speaker 1: a bit. No, I wasn't really stressed out. I mean 114 00:06:27,480 --> 00:06:29,400 Speaker 1: a couple of times I thought, you know, I should 115 00:06:29,440 --> 00:06:30,840 Speaker 1: have put some more in. You know, I had more 116 00:06:30,880 --> 00:06:33,240 Speaker 1: money available at the time, but I didn't really worry 117 00:06:33,279 --> 00:06:35,400 Speaker 1: about that because you know, when you're at one point 118 00:06:35,400 --> 00:06:37,600 Speaker 1: two million, you kind of it doesn't really matter, does it. 119 00:06:37,680 --> 00:06:40,560 Speaker 1: You're just like um. And it wasn't stressful at all. 120 00:06:40,680 --> 00:06:43,120 Speaker 1: It was just a lot of fun and opened a 121 00:06:43,120 --> 00:06:45,960 Speaker 1: lot of doors for me. I've met a whole bunch 122 00:06:45,960 --> 00:06:48,800 Speaker 1: of people. I've launched this podcast and it's created a 123 00:06:48,839 --> 00:06:51,040 Speaker 1: whole life for me. So, you know, it wasn't stressful. 124 00:06:51,040 --> 00:06:53,080 Speaker 1: It was a lot of fun. Um. I was very 125 00:06:53,120 --> 00:06:56,719 Speaker 1: careless with money. You know. I bought a very expensive watch, 126 00:06:56,839 --> 00:06:59,880 Speaker 1: I bought a new car. I gave a lot of 127 00:07:00,000 --> 00:07:01,400 Speaker 1: I gave I gave a lot of money away. I 128 00:07:01,400 --> 00:07:03,159 Speaker 1: mean at Christmas last year, I gave my brother and 129 00:07:03,200 --> 00:07:08,039 Speaker 1: sister each like like five thousand pound each. UM, I 130 00:07:08,080 --> 00:07:11,160 Speaker 1: bought my dad a brightly. I paid for the hospital 131 00:07:11,200 --> 00:07:14,200 Speaker 1: where my mom worked before she passed. UM they needed 132 00:07:14,240 --> 00:07:16,080 Speaker 1: six thousand pounds for regard and so I paid for that. 133 00:07:16,120 --> 00:07:18,240 Speaker 1: So I kind of paid for all this stuff, just 134 00:07:18,480 --> 00:07:20,720 Speaker 1: being frivolous, But I was paying for it out on 135 00:07:20,760 --> 00:07:23,880 Speaker 1: my savings, not out of my crypto, so that was 136 00:07:23,960 --> 00:07:26,480 Speaker 1: kind of stupid. But no, look, it was just it 137 00:07:26,560 --> 00:07:28,800 Speaker 1: was It's been so much fun. It's been a hell 138 00:07:28,800 --> 00:07:30,720 Speaker 1: of a ride. And no, there was no real stress 139 00:07:30,760 --> 00:07:33,160 Speaker 1: on the way up, and strangely enough, it hasn't been 140 00:07:33,200 --> 00:07:36,320 Speaker 1: stressful on the way down either. I definitely want to 141 00:07:36,360 --> 00:07:39,240 Speaker 1: ask you more about that, but before we do, I 142 00:07:39,280 --> 00:07:40,800 Speaker 1: just want to sort of back up a little bit. 143 00:07:40,920 --> 00:07:44,720 Speaker 1: What was the ball case for you when it came 144 00:07:44,760 --> 00:07:48,320 Speaker 1: to bitcoin, you know a little over a year ago, Like, 145 00:07:48,480 --> 00:07:51,600 Speaker 1: what was it that you thought was happening here and 146 00:07:51,640 --> 00:07:55,440 Speaker 1: what made you want to stay in bitcoin and I 147 00:07:55,440 --> 00:07:59,720 Speaker 1: guess some other crypto coins versus going into more traditional 148 00:07:59,760 --> 00:08:02,680 Speaker 1: and sms. It was just innovation, right, There was this 149 00:08:02,760 --> 00:08:06,960 Speaker 1: whole wave of innovation around cryptocurrencies and crypto networks, and 150 00:08:07,000 --> 00:08:09,320 Speaker 1: it just felt like the start of something new, a 151 00:08:09,360 --> 00:08:12,240 Speaker 1: bit like. You know, I was part of the dot 152 00:08:12,280 --> 00:08:14,240 Speaker 1: com era when it first started. I worked at a 153 00:08:14,360 --> 00:08:18,600 Speaker 1: dot com and I spent twenty years in digital advertising, 154 00:08:18,640 --> 00:08:22,400 Speaker 1: so I experienced that and it kind of had similar feelings, 155 00:08:22,800 --> 00:08:26,080 Speaker 1: not exactly the same, but you know, I don't ever 156 00:08:26,120 --> 00:08:28,800 Speaker 1: believe the crypto networks would ever be as big as 157 00:08:29,160 --> 00:08:32,320 Speaker 1: the Internet itself, but it did feel like a new 158 00:08:32,320 --> 00:08:36,920 Speaker 1: way of you know, transacting, sending money, building things. So 159 00:08:36,960 --> 00:08:38,800 Speaker 1: at the time I kind of brought into all of it. 160 00:08:39,360 --> 00:08:41,320 Speaker 1: You know, my opinion over time has changed, but I 161 00:08:41,320 --> 00:08:43,040 Speaker 1: did buy into all of it because I just thought 162 00:08:43,040 --> 00:08:45,880 Speaker 1: this was something new, something cool. But I didn't invest 163 00:08:45,960 --> 00:08:47,599 Speaker 1: the money at the time thinking I was going to 164 00:08:47,679 --> 00:08:49,360 Speaker 1: make a lot of money, right, you know, when I 165 00:08:49,400 --> 00:08:52,520 Speaker 1: first invested, I just I just thought, yeah, there's an 166 00:08:52,520 --> 00:08:55,160 Speaker 1: opportunity to make something here. But in no way did 167 00:08:55,200 --> 00:08:58,880 Speaker 1: I think, um, what was going to happen happened. I 168 00:08:58,880 --> 00:09:01,960 Speaker 1: think my prediction at the start out of two thousand 169 00:09:01,920 --> 00:09:03,880 Speaker 1: and seventeen was that wouldn't it be great if by 170 00:09:03,880 --> 00:09:05,800 Speaker 1: the end of the bit coined hit two thousand dollars 171 00:09:05,840 --> 00:09:09,400 Speaker 1: and ended up hit in twenty thou dollars. So you know, 172 00:09:09,480 --> 00:09:11,880 Speaker 1: it was just it was a very strange ride, um 173 00:09:12,240 --> 00:09:15,200 Speaker 1: but nothing played out exactly as I thought it would. 174 00:09:15,480 --> 00:09:17,640 Speaker 1: One of the things you said in your tweet storm 175 00:09:17,679 --> 00:09:20,640 Speaker 1: that I think was interesting, which is that on the 176 00:09:20,679 --> 00:09:23,520 Speaker 1: way up, well, you know, for people who sort of 177 00:09:23,640 --> 00:09:27,920 Speaker 1: maybe don't remember their history, it's um as Bitcoin sort 178 00:09:27,920 --> 00:09:30,400 Speaker 1: of peaked in December and it was still pretty high 179 00:09:30,400 --> 00:09:35,440 Speaker 1: in January. We saw an even crazier explosion in a 180 00:09:35,440 --> 00:09:39,120 Speaker 1: lot of alt coins, other cryptocurrencies, many of them of 181 00:09:39,480 --> 00:09:44,640 Speaker 1: extremely dubious quality, half big projects. I think things they 182 00:09:44,640 --> 00:09:47,079 Speaker 1: were sort of like mediocre to anyone who looked at them, 183 00:09:47,080 --> 00:09:49,080 Speaker 1: But that's something you see in bubbles in which the 184 00:09:49,120 --> 00:09:53,160 Speaker 1: real trash really surges at the end. I think you 185 00:09:53,240 --> 00:09:55,800 Speaker 1: said in your tweet storm that on the way up 186 00:09:56,200 --> 00:10:01,480 Speaker 1: you started buying other non bitcoin in assets more and more. 187 00:10:01,600 --> 00:10:04,800 Speaker 1: Tell us about the decision to do that. Well, at first, 188 00:10:04,880 --> 00:10:07,840 Speaker 1: there was no strategy around it. I was just learning 189 00:10:07,840 --> 00:10:10,400 Speaker 1: about things, reading about things, and just wanting to try 190 00:10:10,400 --> 00:10:13,440 Speaker 1: it out. So I bought Dash because that seemed like 191 00:10:13,440 --> 00:10:15,880 Speaker 1: a different kind of bitcoin. It seemed kind of interesting. 192 00:10:16,200 --> 00:10:18,800 Speaker 1: I bought Ethereum because it was like this world computer 193 00:10:18,880 --> 00:10:21,600 Speaker 1: that sounded interesting. I bought Minero because it was a 194 00:10:21,600 --> 00:10:23,760 Speaker 1: private coin. I bought ripple Coin because it was a 195 00:10:23,760 --> 00:10:26,400 Speaker 1: banking coin. I just kind of bought everything, just went 196 00:10:26,480 --> 00:10:29,840 Speaker 1: for it. And then over time I started to consider 197 00:10:30,200 --> 00:10:33,080 Speaker 1: maybe more kind of fundamental analysis, so I started looking 198 00:10:33,080 --> 00:10:35,600 Speaker 1: at things to see if they kind of had value 199 00:10:35,679 --> 00:10:37,320 Speaker 1: or they had a purpose, and then kind of refined 200 00:10:37,400 --> 00:10:40,280 Speaker 1: my strategy. But still up until the under two thousand 201 00:10:40,320 --> 00:10:44,000 Speaker 1: and seventeen, I believed in, you know, most of these 202 00:10:44,160 --> 00:10:48,000 Speaker 1: networks and most of these coins as being an opportunity. 203 00:10:48,440 --> 00:10:50,880 Speaker 1: I had an expectation lots would fail, but it was 204 00:10:50,920 --> 00:10:54,040 Speaker 1: kind of like the dot com era. You know, web 205 00:10:54,120 --> 00:10:56,559 Speaker 1: Van sounded great at the time, Boo dot Com sounded 206 00:10:56,600 --> 00:10:58,200 Speaker 1: great at the time. They just weren't ready or just 207 00:10:58,200 --> 00:11:00,360 Speaker 1: weren't built in the right way. And I just thought, 208 00:11:00,520 --> 00:11:03,560 Speaker 1: you know, spread my investments, and the things that always 209 00:11:03,559 --> 00:11:05,720 Speaker 1: successful I'll make money from, and the things that fail 210 00:11:05,800 --> 00:11:09,400 Speaker 1: I won't. But with a diverse portfolio, yeah I should 211 00:11:09,400 --> 00:11:12,040 Speaker 1: be okay. It's only since, like I think a bear 212 00:11:12,120 --> 00:11:14,080 Speaker 1: market is very good forget you, to get you to 213 00:11:14,080 --> 00:11:16,160 Speaker 1: be a bit more rational and look at things and 214 00:11:16,559 --> 00:11:18,480 Speaker 1: a bit more detail. Now I've kind of like my 215 00:11:18,480 --> 00:11:22,600 Speaker 1: opinions changed a lot. So with that background in mind, 216 00:11:22,800 --> 00:11:26,560 Speaker 1: when you saw all these coins plus bitcoin sort of 217 00:11:26,600 --> 00:11:30,520 Speaker 1: going up together, did you at any point kind of 218 00:11:30,559 --> 00:11:35,240 Speaker 1: think this is weird or this is too easy? Yeah, definitely, 219 00:11:35,880 --> 00:11:37,760 Speaker 1: I definitely thought this was too easy. But you know, 220 00:11:37,800 --> 00:11:39,839 Speaker 1: I just rode it. I just you just went with it. 221 00:11:39,840 --> 00:11:42,360 Speaker 1: It was. It was continual the whole year. There were 222 00:11:42,400 --> 00:11:44,560 Speaker 1: three or four crashes. I remember once I was flying 223 00:11:44,559 --> 00:11:47,120 Speaker 1: out to l A and I'd gone into the airport 224 00:11:47,160 --> 00:11:49,840 Speaker 1: lounge and I'd always wanted to have a brightly watch, right, 225 00:11:49,920 --> 00:11:52,520 Speaker 1: That's something I could never normally afford, and I just 226 00:11:52,559 --> 00:11:54,199 Speaker 1: bought it and I got on the plane, and when 227 00:11:54,200 --> 00:11:57,080 Speaker 1: I got off the plane, the market dropped thirty. I 228 00:11:57,160 --> 00:11:59,360 Speaker 1: was like, whoa, Okay, that was a lesson and exactly 229 00:11:59,400 --> 00:12:02,679 Speaker 1: the same. And when I bought the car, I bought Mercedes, right, 230 00:12:02,800 --> 00:12:05,520 Speaker 1: And when I was in the garage picking up the keys, 231 00:12:05,520 --> 00:12:08,920 Speaker 1: the market dropped again. But each thirty drop, the market 232 00:12:08,920 --> 00:12:13,720 Speaker 1: always rebounded. So when it dropped again January this year, 233 00:12:14,040 --> 00:12:19,319 Speaker 1: I expected it to come back. You mean January. Yeah, 234 00:12:19,760 --> 00:12:22,840 Speaker 1: I want to hear more of what you bought things 235 00:12:22,840 --> 00:12:27,040 Speaker 1: that you bought just like everything. Um, you know, I 236 00:12:27,080 --> 00:12:30,640 Speaker 1: took my kids on loads of amazing holidays to America, 237 00:12:30,760 --> 00:12:33,720 Speaker 1: to Florida. As I said, I gave a lot of 238 00:12:33,720 --> 00:12:35,800 Speaker 1: money to my family. I bought my dad a watch, 239 00:12:35,840 --> 00:12:39,000 Speaker 1: I bought a car. UM. I flew first class for 240 00:12:39,000 --> 00:12:42,000 Speaker 1: the first time, something I've never done. It's nothing I 241 00:12:42,000 --> 00:12:44,839 Speaker 1: could ever normally afford. And I was flying back from 242 00:12:44,960 --> 00:12:47,080 Speaker 1: l a and I had a date book with a 243 00:12:47,080 --> 00:12:49,800 Speaker 1: girl in London, and I was on a flight which 244 00:12:49,800 --> 00:12:51,520 Speaker 1: meant I would be landing in the afternoon. I knew 245 00:12:51,559 --> 00:12:54,600 Speaker 1: i'd be tired. I thought, you know what, I'm a millionaire. 246 00:12:54,600 --> 00:12:56,600 Speaker 1: I'm just going to get myself a first class flight, 247 00:12:56,679 --> 00:13:00,320 Speaker 1: which I did as well. Uh like, not in a um, 248 00:13:00,520 --> 00:13:03,160 Speaker 1: not in an idiotic, idiotic way. It's just the way 249 00:13:03,200 --> 00:13:05,360 Speaker 1: I always think about money is is you know, use 250 00:13:05,400 --> 00:13:08,000 Speaker 1: it and enjoy it. Um you might not have it tomorrow. 251 00:13:08,040 --> 00:13:10,960 Speaker 1: So funny enough, it's turned out, and I'm glad. I 252 00:13:11,000 --> 00:13:12,640 Speaker 1: did you know, I got to experience a bunch of 253 00:13:12,640 --> 00:13:14,040 Speaker 1: things and do a bunch of things I could never 254 00:13:14,040 --> 00:13:16,319 Speaker 1: normally do. Saying for my kids, my kids got to 255 00:13:16,360 --> 00:13:18,319 Speaker 1: experience and do a lot of things they could normally do. 256 00:13:18,840 --> 00:13:21,960 Speaker 1: And yeah, it's been it's just been a lot of fun. 257 00:13:39,480 --> 00:13:42,000 Speaker 1: Did you in your mind on the way up have 258 00:13:42,280 --> 00:13:45,200 Speaker 1: some number for your portfolio? They got Okay, if it 259 00:13:45,280 --> 00:13:47,559 Speaker 1: hits there's I'm going to sell have or if it 260 00:13:47,679 --> 00:13:50,959 Speaker 1: said hits this, I'm gonna sell everything, like because at 261 00:13:51,000 --> 00:13:53,840 Speaker 1: some point you had to maybe worry I think that 262 00:13:53,920 --> 00:13:55,920 Speaker 1: it was all going to crash. So did you have 263 00:13:56,040 --> 00:13:59,480 Speaker 1: some sort of exit strategy that you thought or some 264 00:13:59,600 --> 00:14:02,560 Speaker 1: sort of when to get out? Well, I used to 265 00:14:02,600 --> 00:14:06,840 Speaker 1: take out um so every time my portfolio kind of 266 00:14:07,559 --> 00:14:08,679 Speaker 1: as I at the end of the month, I used 267 00:14:08,720 --> 00:14:11,680 Speaker 1: to take the profit out. But as I got towards 268 00:14:11,720 --> 00:14:13,160 Speaker 1: the end of the year, I was thinking, gosh, if 269 00:14:13,200 --> 00:14:15,160 Speaker 1: this carries on for another six months. I've always had 270 00:14:15,160 --> 00:14:17,360 Speaker 1: this goal in life. I wanted to buy my local 271 00:14:17,400 --> 00:14:20,320 Speaker 1: football club. I know it sounds stupid, but I live 272 00:14:20,320 --> 00:14:22,880 Speaker 1: in a very small town called Bedford, right, It's just 273 00:14:22,920 --> 00:14:25,320 Speaker 1: a nothing town. Our football club is in the lowest 274 00:14:25,320 --> 00:14:27,400 Speaker 1: of the low divisions, are not in the Football League. 275 00:14:27,720 --> 00:14:29,760 Speaker 1: About a hundred people go and watch him each week. 276 00:14:30,080 --> 00:14:31,680 Speaker 1: So I had this kind of price in my head. 277 00:14:31,720 --> 00:14:33,760 Speaker 1: If I could make five million, I could buy the club, 278 00:14:34,000 --> 00:14:36,360 Speaker 1: and like I was working through it with one of 279 00:14:36,360 --> 00:14:38,680 Speaker 1: my friends and we figured out, you know, that would 280 00:14:38,680 --> 00:14:40,320 Speaker 1: be enough money to buy the club and get him 281 00:14:40,320 --> 00:14:41,960 Speaker 1: in the football league. So I was like, right, if 282 00:14:41,960 --> 00:14:44,840 Speaker 1: I can hit that by middle of two thousand and eighteen, 283 00:14:45,040 --> 00:14:47,000 Speaker 1: I'll cash out the majority of it, go and buy 284 00:14:47,000 --> 00:14:50,480 Speaker 1: the football club. I know it sounds so stupid our reflection, 285 00:14:51,240 --> 00:14:53,680 Speaker 1: No it doesn't. I know someone else who has a 286 00:14:53,760 --> 00:14:57,160 Speaker 1: dream to own a small town football club and it 287 00:14:57,240 --> 00:15:01,000 Speaker 1: is possible in the UK look at Swansea. Right. Anyway, 288 00:15:01,080 --> 00:15:04,720 Speaker 1: when did it all start going wrong? Because it's great 289 00:15:04,760 --> 00:15:07,480 Speaker 1: to listen to the list of stuff that you bought, 290 00:15:07,640 --> 00:15:12,320 Speaker 1: but in the end the portfolio kind of evaporated in value. 291 00:15:12,680 --> 00:15:15,560 Speaker 1: So it's funny. I don't see is it going wrong. 292 00:15:15,680 --> 00:15:19,520 Speaker 1: I see it as losing portfolio. But I actually, on reflection, 293 00:15:19,720 --> 00:15:22,600 Speaker 1: I think two thousand and eighteen has been a great 294 00:15:22,680 --> 00:15:27,440 Speaker 1: year for for the crypto category personally myself. Of you know, 295 00:15:27,480 --> 00:15:29,520 Speaker 1: it's a real lesson I've never had it in life. 296 00:15:29,920 --> 00:15:33,080 Speaker 1: Like we have securities laws which stop people investing who 297 00:15:33,080 --> 00:15:35,480 Speaker 1: aren't the credited investors, but if you don't invest, you 298 00:15:35,480 --> 00:15:38,680 Speaker 1: won't learn. So two thousand and eighteen has been a 299 00:15:38,760 --> 00:15:42,040 Speaker 1: huge lesson in money for me, you know, conserving capital 300 00:15:42,080 --> 00:15:46,160 Speaker 1: and protecting capital. Um. You know, so from about January 301 00:15:46,200 --> 00:15:49,480 Speaker 1: I started it started happening, but I thought it would 302 00:15:49,480 --> 00:15:51,560 Speaker 1: be another a bounce, you know, I thought it would 303 00:15:51,600 --> 00:15:54,120 Speaker 1: drop and bounce back. I would say. From about March, 304 00:15:54,160 --> 00:15:57,840 Speaker 1: I was thinking, Okay, this isn't coming back. And my 305 00:15:58,320 --> 00:16:02,800 Speaker 1: biggest mistake is I invested around four thousand dollars into 306 00:16:02,920 --> 00:16:06,400 Speaker 1: mining because you know, I wanted to have another way 307 00:16:06,440 --> 00:16:08,920 Speaker 1: of growing my capital, so I bought all these different 308 00:16:08,920 --> 00:16:11,120 Speaker 1: A six and that's where I've lost the majority of 309 00:16:11,120 --> 00:16:14,000 Speaker 1: my money because the equipment isn't worth hardly anything now, 310 00:16:14,120 --> 00:16:18,640 Speaker 1: and I was locked into power contracts which were costing 311 00:16:18,720 --> 00:16:21,720 Speaker 1: more than the bitcoin I was mining. So across the year, 312 00:16:21,880 --> 00:16:24,680 Speaker 1: you know, it's it's just been something that has happened 313 00:16:24,680 --> 00:16:26,680 Speaker 1: over the whole year. But again, I don't reflect on 314 00:16:26,680 --> 00:16:29,840 Speaker 1: it in any kind of negativity. I'm not bothered by it. 315 00:16:29,880 --> 00:16:33,520 Speaker 1: I'm actually I'm still very positive about bitcoin in the future, 316 00:16:33,560 --> 00:16:35,880 Speaker 1: and I'm I'm glad it's all happened in a kind 317 00:16:35,880 --> 00:16:37,960 Speaker 1: of weird way. I mean, obviously I wish I had 318 00:16:37,960 --> 00:16:40,920 Speaker 1: a cashed out, but I haven't. And you know, we 319 00:16:40,960 --> 00:16:43,320 Speaker 1: always make the best decisions we think are at the time. 320 00:16:43,360 --> 00:16:45,600 Speaker 1: And every time I've considered cashing out and I haven't, 321 00:16:45,640 --> 00:16:47,920 Speaker 1: that I believe was the right decision. So I don't 322 00:16:47,920 --> 00:16:51,360 Speaker 1: have any regrets when you think about, say, going back 323 00:16:51,360 --> 00:16:54,000 Speaker 1: in March and realizing that something was different, that this 324 00:16:54,120 --> 00:16:57,440 Speaker 1: bounce was not going to be like one of the plunges, 325 00:16:57,560 --> 00:16:59,440 Speaker 1: or that this dropt was not going to be like 326 00:16:59,480 --> 00:17:04,159 Speaker 1: one of the inges. In twenty seventeen, was it harder 327 00:17:04,200 --> 00:17:06,679 Speaker 1: to sell or do you think it was it was 328 00:17:06,880 --> 00:17:11,399 Speaker 1: harder to make wise trading decisions because you had hit 329 00:17:11,440 --> 00:17:13,719 Speaker 1: a high water mark of one point two million, and 330 00:17:13,760 --> 00:17:16,480 Speaker 1: you felt like that is sort of like where you 331 00:17:16,480 --> 00:17:18,440 Speaker 1: should get back to. Because I do think this is 332 00:17:18,480 --> 00:17:23,080 Speaker 1: a phenomenon of all traders, and not just even in bubbles, 333 00:17:23,840 --> 00:17:27,480 Speaker 1: where somehow like their portfolio hits a certain level and 334 00:17:27,520 --> 00:17:31,080 Speaker 1: then psychologically they sort of find it very hard to 335 00:17:31,080 --> 00:17:35,960 Speaker 1: sell anything below that level, and even if all the 336 00:17:36,000 --> 00:17:39,000 Speaker 1: other data points and charts and their brains sort of 337 00:17:39,040 --> 00:17:42,240 Speaker 1: tell them that they should still cash out and take profits. 338 00:17:42,720 --> 00:17:44,800 Speaker 1: I think one of the difficulties was selling is there 339 00:17:45,000 --> 00:17:46,800 Speaker 1: was so much good news and so many could think 340 00:17:46,960 --> 00:17:50,400 Speaker 1: things happening in two thousand and eighteen, there was especially 341 00:17:50,400 --> 00:17:53,960 Speaker 1: for bitcoin, there was you know, real Wall Street adoption 342 00:17:54,000 --> 00:17:58,679 Speaker 1: in terms of um, you know, futures, another derivative products. 343 00:17:58,760 --> 00:18:02,160 Speaker 1: You know, there was the news of potentially ts. There 344 00:18:02,280 --> 00:18:05,199 Speaker 1: was so much good news happening that I was I 345 00:18:05,280 --> 00:18:07,120 Speaker 1: kept every time we kind of hit another low price, 346 00:18:07,119 --> 00:18:08,719 Speaker 1: I thinking, well, it's not going to go lower than that. 347 00:18:09,160 --> 00:18:10,600 Speaker 1: I think that was my problem. It wasn't that I 348 00:18:10,640 --> 00:18:12,520 Speaker 1: was looking to get back higher. I just never thought 349 00:18:12,520 --> 00:18:14,080 Speaker 1: it would go lower. And each time it went lower, 350 00:18:14,080 --> 00:18:16,760 Speaker 1: I was like, Okay, maybe that's the base. But you know, 351 00:18:16,800 --> 00:18:19,199 Speaker 1: I'm not a trader. I've got no experience with this. 352 00:18:19,280 --> 00:18:23,639 Speaker 1: I think pretty pretty experienced traders would have recognized this pattern, right. 353 00:18:23,680 --> 00:18:25,919 Speaker 1: And you know what, in a year, two years, if 354 00:18:25,960 --> 00:18:28,040 Speaker 1: the same happens, I'll probably be better prepared than I 355 00:18:28,119 --> 00:18:32,400 Speaker 1: was this time. I have a really boring question, but 356 00:18:32,680 --> 00:18:35,040 Speaker 1: I think in your tweet storm, I seem to remember 357 00:18:35,040 --> 00:18:38,520 Speaker 1: you mentioned something about, you know, after taxes, you didn't 358 00:18:38,560 --> 00:18:42,879 Speaker 1: have much left. How did you actually calculate taxes on 359 00:18:42,960 --> 00:18:46,080 Speaker 1: your crypto investments? So I have an accountant for all 360 00:18:46,119 --> 00:18:49,200 Speaker 1: of this. UM, what I did at the start is 361 00:18:49,240 --> 00:18:52,080 Speaker 1: I registered everything I do as businesses, and I've used 362 00:18:52,119 --> 00:18:53,920 Speaker 1: the same account of for years, so that's something that's 363 00:18:53,920 --> 00:18:56,320 Speaker 1: completely handled by them. I wouldn't even want to get 364 00:18:56,359 --> 00:18:59,639 Speaker 1: into the right in my own tax return for crypto 365 00:18:59,640 --> 00:19:01,520 Speaker 1: because it's hugely complex. So yeah, I just used an 366 00:19:01,520 --> 00:19:05,080 Speaker 1: account of for that. So talk about where you are today. 367 00:19:05,119 --> 00:19:07,800 Speaker 1: You started, I think you said, with thirty two thousand dollars, 368 00:19:08,400 --> 00:19:11,760 Speaker 1: wrote up to one point two million dollars. You spend 369 00:19:11,800 --> 00:19:15,840 Speaker 1: four hundred thousand dollars on mining equipment, crypto mining equipment 370 00:19:16,440 --> 00:19:19,040 Speaker 1: that's now worthless as you put it. You got into 371 00:19:19,040 --> 00:19:22,840 Speaker 1: all these long term contracts, you paid taxes. Are you 372 00:19:22,920 --> 00:19:26,480 Speaker 1: just back to square one? No, I'm not. You know, 373 00:19:26,560 --> 00:19:29,280 Speaker 1: some people wrote to me thinking I was completely wrecked 374 00:19:29,280 --> 00:19:32,480 Speaker 1: and broken. So I'm not broken. I have a I 375 00:19:32,480 --> 00:19:34,520 Speaker 1: wouldn't tell you the amounts now, but I have a small, 376 00:19:34,720 --> 00:19:36,760 Speaker 1: very small amount of bitcoin which I've got left over. 377 00:19:36,840 --> 00:19:38,439 Speaker 1: So what I ended up doing I just sold all 378 00:19:38,480 --> 00:19:41,240 Speaker 1: my old coins cashed out a certain amount just to 379 00:19:41,840 --> 00:19:43,480 Speaker 1: give me a bit of breathing room. Because I'm a 380 00:19:43,520 --> 00:19:46,840 Speaker 1: single father with two children, so I have to be responsible. 381 00:19:47,080 --> 00:19:48,800 Speaker 1: So I cashed out a certain amount to give myself 382 00:19:48,920 --> 00:19:51,960 Speaker 1: a few months breathing room and retained a small amount 383 00:19:52,000 --> 00:19:55,480 Speaker 1: of bitcoin, and I've got some minera as well, but 384 00:19:55,600 --> 00:19:58,119 Speaker 1: the mining operation is still there. I'm still paying those bills, 385 00:19:58,160 --> 00:20:01,480 Speaker 1: which is frustrating. But at the same time, I guess 386 00:20:01,520 --> 00:20:03,320 Speaker 1: one of the other reasons I'm not too worried is 387 00:20:03,680 --> 00:20:06,840 Speaker 1: my podcast has been really successful. I think last month 388 00:20:06,920 --> 00:20:09,280 Speaker 1: I went over a hundred thousand downloads. For the first 389 00:20:09,359 --> 00:20:14,600 Speaker 1: month's profitable. You know, I'm selling adverts each month. I 390 00:20:14,640 --> 00:20:17,480 Speaker 1: think revenues for this month is around ten dollars, so 391 00:20:17,760 --> 00:20:19,879 Speaker 1: you know, I've got a sustainable business. Let's come out 392 00:20:19,880 --> 00:20:21,119 Speaker 1: of the back of this. So I think that's probably 393 00:20:21,160 --> 00:20:23,000 Speaker 1: one of the other reasons I'm not too worried. It's 394 00:20:23,000 --> 00:20:27,119 Speaker 1: not been hugely upsetting. A question I meant to ask earlier. 395 00:20:27,160 --> 00:20:30,120 Speaker 1: So you had all this bitcoin in your portfolio, it's surged, 396 00:20:30,760 --> 00:20:33,280 Speaker 1: and then the other things you did were sort of 397 00:20:33,680 --> 00:20:38,400 Speaker 1: de facto doubling and tripling down on bitcoin, just through 398 00:20:38,520 --> 00:20:41,879 Speaker 1: different ways. So obviously you mentioned the huge outlay for 399 00:20:42,040 --> 00:20:45,119 Speaker 1: the mining and the power contract, and you've started this 400 00:20:45,960 --> 00:20:52,159 Speaker 1: successful podcast about bitcoin. Did it ever seem concerning to 401 00:20:52,200 --> 00:20:55,240 Speaker 1: you that you're sort of unhedged that you had essentially 402 00:20:56,119 --> 00:20:59,120 Speaker 1: all these different eggs, but they were really the same 403 00:20:59,160 --> 00:21:02,400 Speaker 1: egg and there was all in one basket. No, not really. 404 00:21:02,440 --> 00:21:04,640 Speaker 1: I didn't think about it too much. I've just I've 405 00:21:04,640 --> 00:21:08,520 Speaker 1: always been entrepreneurial. I've always run businesses. I've always kind 406 00:21:08,520 --> 00:21:10,119 Speaker 1: of thrown mud at the wall and see what sticks. 407 00:21:10,119 --> 00:21:13,719 Speaker 1: So No, I was perfully, perfectly comfortable doing it. I mean, 408 00:21:13,760 --> 00:21:17,680 Speaker 1: I fundamentally believe in bitcoin, especially you know, over a 409 00:21:17,680 --> 00:21:21,439 Speaker 1: long enough timeframe. I fundamentally believe in it, and I 410 00:21:21,480 --> 00:21:24,879 Speaker 1: have a curiosity with other parts of crypto, although I 411 00:21:24,880 --> 00:21:28,840 Speaker 1: would say I'm heading down the maximalist route at the moment. 412 00:21:28,880 --> 00:21:31,880 Speaker 1: But no, I was never worried, and I'm not worried now. 413 00:21:31,920 --> 00:21:34,440 Speaker 1: I'm still invested, and I'm still you know, essentially some ways, 414 00:21:34,440 --> 00:21:36,800 Speaker 1: I'm still doubling down on bitcoin because you know, I 415 00:21:36,840 --> 00:21:39,120 Speaker 1: don't do anything else. This is still my full time job, 416 00:21:39,480 --> 00:21:42,320 Speaker 1: and it looks like I may have survived the bear market, 417 00:21:42,400 --> 00:21:45,560 Speaker 1: so I should come out the other end of this. Okay, 418 00:21:46,080 --> 00:21:48,840 Speaker 1: So You've touched on this at various points. But one 419 00:21:48,840 --> 00:21:52,480 Speaker 1: of the remarkable things about bitcoin is sort of the 420 00:21:52,520 --> 00:21:55,280 Speaker 1: community that exists surround it, and the fact that you 421 00:21:55,320 --> 00:21:58,879 Speaker 1: have a bunch of people who are commenting on you 422 00:21:58,920 --> 00:22:02,640 Speaker 1: know bitcoin, it's health or new coins, the underlying technology, 423 00:22:02,760 --> 00:22:05,520 Speaker 1: or just the basic price movement, and when it comes 424 00:22:05,560 --> 00:22:09,800 Speaker 1: to that price movement, it can be really volatile. You know, bitcoin, 425 00:22:10,040 --> 00:22:13,320 Speaker 1: it's a digital currency, it's moving every day. There's a 426 00:22:13,320 --> 00:22:16,600 Speaker 1: lot of excitement around the way it trades. Do you 427 00:22:16,680 --> 00:22:22,399 Speaker 1: think any sort of traditional or historic financial investments are 428 00:22:22,440 --> 00:22:25,720 Speaker 1: ever going to be able to match the excitement that 429 00:22:26,119 --> 00:22:29,280 Speaker 1: has come with cryptocurrencies over the past few years. I 430 00:22:29,320 --> 00:22:31,480 Speaker 1: mean maybe who knows, right, I mean, you can't. You 431 00:22:31,520 --> 00:22:33,520 Speaker 1: can't predict this. But one thing I would say is 432 00:22:33,640 --> 00:22:38,760 Speaker 1: I think the reason the bubble was so accelerated and 433 00:22:38,920 --> 00:22:42,800 Speaker 1: was you know, it was such a quick, fast, crazy bubble, 434 00:22:43,000 --> 00:22:48,840 Speaker 1: is that cryptocurrency is essentially broken down the wolves of Sorry, 435 00:22:48,880 --> 00:22:51,000 Speaker 1: they've broken some of the rules down, so it's so 436 00:22:51,080 --> 00:22:54,840 Speaker 1: easy to trade. Trading shares and stocks is quite difficult, right, 437 00:22:55,359 --> 00:22:57,080 Speaker 1: you know, there's certain rules you have to follow, certain 438 00:22:57,119 --> 00:23:00,320 Speaker 1: companies you have to go through. Trading gold is equally 439 00:23:00,960 --> 00:23:02,639 Speaker 1: to me, appears hard. I've never done it. I mean, 440 00:23:02,680 --> 00:23:04,520 Speaker 1: if you want to buy gold and silver physically, you've 441 00:23:04,560 --> 00:23:07,159 Speaker 1: got to order it and have it delivered. So technology 442 00:23:07,200 --> 00:23:09,639 Speaker 1: seems to make trading easier and easier over time, and 443 00:23:09,680 --> 00:23:11,800 Speaker 1: crypto just seems to be the easiest thing to trade. 444 00:23:12,119 --> 00:23:16,919 Speaker 1: You know, you're buying digital assets from any Internet connected device, 445 00:23:16,920 --> 00:23:19,640 Speaker 1: from anywhere in the world, So it just became very 446 00:23:19,680 --> 00:23:21,920 Speaker 1: easy for everyone to just get on board and get involved. 447 00:23:22,000 --> 00:23:26,320 Speaker 1: There was very little regulatory framework around it. I only 448 00:23:26,320 --> 00:23:29,399 Speaker 1: see technology becoming more advanced. So perhaps there will be 449 00:23:29,400 --> 00:23:31,920 Speaker 1: something in the future which is similar. Who knows um, 450 00:23:31,960 --> 00:23:34,280 Speaker 1: But it's very hard to predict that, right, Yeah, I 451 00:23:34,960 --> 00:23:37,600 Speaker 1: wish we could predict it. I think we all wish 452 00:23:37,640 --> 00:23:40,080 Speaker 1: we could. I have another question, and it's sort of 453 00:23:40,119 --> 00:23:43,280 Speaker 1: dovetails with what Tracy asked about community. So you have 454 00:23:43,400 --> 00:23:47,000 Speaker 1: your podcast, you have forty five thousand people who follow 455 00:23:47,040 --> 00:23:51,440 Speaker 1: you on Twitter talking about bitcoin. You have, you've made 456 00:23:51,480 --> 00:23:55,680 Speaker 1: your identity around it. Do you think that publicly putting 457 00:23:55,880 --> 00:24:00,600 Speaker 1: oneself forward, associating themselves with an investment or a movement 458 00:24:00,800 --> 00:24:03,639 Speaker 1: or a trade makes it harder to change your mind? 459 00:24:03,680 --> 00:24:06,159 Speaker 1: Like if you sort of decided one day, or you 460 00:24:06,280 --> 00:24:09,399 Speaker 1: came across evidence in your mind that okay, bitcoin is 461 00:24:09,440 --> 00:24:11,720 Speaker 1: not going to be as big as you think it is, 462 00:24:12,000 --> 00:24:14,359 Speaker 1: or for whatever reason, you thought the price had further 463 00:24:14,520 --> 00:24:16,920 Speaker 1: to go down when you have that much of your 464 00:24:16,960 --> 00:24:20,720 Speaker 1: identity and public identity wrapped up in the success of 465 00:24:20,760 --> 00:24:23,760 Speaker 1: this thing. Does that make it harder to sort of 466 00:24:23,800 --> 00:24:27,200 Speaker 1: make a rational investment decision to get out when the 467 00:24:27,320 --> 00:24:30,120 Speaker 1: going is good. Not for me, I did, I think 468 00:24:30,119 --> 00:24:31,880 Speaker 1: it does for a lot of people. I think if 469 00:24:31,880 --> 00:24:34,080 Speaker 1: you look across crypto, there are a lot of people 470 00:24:34,080 --> 00:24:37,080 Speaker 1: who probably got doubts who are not admitting it, Like 471 00:24:37,119 --> 00:24:39,159 Speaker 1: people who have raised money and an I c O. 472 00:24:39,200 --> 00:24:41,480 Speaker 1: On a project, they're probably thinking, do you know what, 473 00:24:42,000 --> 00:24:44,760 Speaker 1: maybe this isn't a goer anymore. It's kind of strange 474 00:24:44,760 --> 00:24:46,600 Speaker 1: because most people don't want to admit they're wrong, but 475 00:24:47,160 --> 00:24:50,080 Speaker 1: because they're worried about the impact on their credibility. But 476 00:24:50,440 --> 00:24:53,399 Speaker 1: usually if you're kind of honest and transparent and open 477 00:24:53,440 --> 00:24:56,880 Speaker 1: it amit mistakes people respect you for it. The tweet storm, 478 00:24:56,920 --> 00:24:58,720 Speaker 1: I did You've seen it? Right? Yeah? I mean I 479 00:24:58,760 --> 00:25:01,119 Speaker 1: expected a response, not the response I did. You know? 480 00:25:01,160 --> 00:25:05,560 Speaker 1: It's like eight thousand likes and three thousand retweets. Amongst that, 481 00:25:05,720 --> 00:25:08,040 Speaker 1: I think there must have been like one or two 482 00:25:08,080 --> 00:25:10,560 Speaker 1: negative comments where people are like, oh, you're an idiot, 483 00:25:10,600 --> 00:25:12,480 Speaker 1: you know, you don't know what you're doing, blah blah, blah. 484 00:25:12,960 --> 00:25:15,480 Speaker 1: Of the hundreds and hundreds of other comments, everyone was 485 00:25:15,560 --> 00:25:18,639 Speaker 1: like positive, Everyone was grateful. People say thank you for 486 00:25:18,680 --> 00:25:21,119 Speaker 1: doing that. It needed saying, you know, it's good that 487 00:25:21,200 --> 00:25:23,680 Speaker 1: you did that. I've had you know, yourself get in touch. 488 00:25:23,720 --> 00:25:27,160 Speaker 1: I've had the Guardian get in touch various other news networks. 489 00:25:27,200 --> 00:25:30,399 Speaker 1: You know, I think what people actually appreciate his honesty. 490 00:25:30,520 --> 00:25:33,880 Speaker 1: It just doesn't happen enough because it's it just feels wrong, right. 491 00:25:33,920 --> 00:25:36,040 Speaker 1: It's really hard to admit you're wrong. But usually when 492 00:25:36,040 --> 00:25:37,920 Speaker 1: you do it, it's like the weight off your shoulders. 493 00:25:38,320 --> 00:25:42,760 Speaker 1: So I'd say you're right. Most people are scared, scared 494 00:25:42,800 --> 00:25:44,800 Speaker 1: to do it, but I'm not. You know, if I'm 495 00:25:44,840 --> 00:25:47,439 Speaker 1: wrong about bitcoin, so be it. I don't think I 496 00:25:47,480 --> 00:25:49,880 Speaker 1: am wrong about bitcoin because I'm not really talking about 497 00:25:49,920 --> 00:25:53,000 Speaker 1: price anymore. I'm talking about the technology, the technology and 498 00:25:53,040 --> 00:25:56,440 Speaker 1: what's being trying to achieve with bitcoin, fundamentally believing even 499 00:25:56,440 --> 00:25:58,879 Speaker 1: if it fails, I won't change my opinion that it 500 00:25:59,000 --> 00:26:01,639 Speaker 1: was it was the right thing to support. I just 501 00:26:01,680 --> 00:26:04,560 Speaker 1: won't get behind price prices anymore because price predictions are 502 00:26:04,560 --> 00:26:06,960 Speaker 1: so hard. You know, that's where you can really come 503 00:26:07,080 --> 00:26:09,800 Speaker 1: come and stuck. Peter, I think that was a great conversation. 504 00:26:09,880 --> 00:26:13,720 Speaker 1: Really appreciate your perspective, and I do think it's very 505 00:26:13,800 --> 00:26:16,760 Speaker 1: commendable that you sort of put yourself out there like this, 506 00:26:16,920 --> 00:26:19,959 Speaker 1: because there have to be a lot of people in 507 00:26:20,080 --> 00:26:22,359 Speaker 1: your shoes who wrote it all the way up and 508 00:26:22,400 --> 00:26:23,720 Speaker 1: wrote it all the way down. I mean, there's the 509 00:26:23,720 --> 00:26:27,280 Speaker 1: whole crypto Twitter community, and I don't think most of 510 00:26:27,320 --> 00:26:29,760 Speaker 1: them would have come forward and talked about the money 511 00:26:29,800 --> 00:26:32,639 Speaker 1: that they gained on paper and then lost afterwards. So 512 00:26:32,920 --> 00:26:35,560 Speaker 1: I really do think you've done people a favor and 513 00:26:35,600 --> 00:26:37,520 Speaker 1: I appreciate you coming up. So let me just tell 514 00:26:37,520 --> 00:26:40,560 Speaker 1: you one story. So I had I reckon. I had 515 00:26:40,560 --> 00:26:43,480 Speaker 1: over three hundred d m s on Twitter from people 516 00:26:43,920 --> 00:26:47,480 Speaker 1: saying thank you, telling me about their experience, and it 517 00:26:47,560 --> 00:26:50,360 Speaker 1: was the same story over and over again, just different amounts. 518 00:26:50,640 --> 00:26:52,560 Speaker 1: You know, it might be somebody invested a hundred who 519 00:26:52,600 --> 00:26:54,480 Speaker 1: made who got up to like thirty thousand and lost 520 00:26:54,560 --> 00:26:58,560 Speaker 1: it all. But there was one person who invested I 521 00:26:58,680 --> 00:27:01,920 Speaker 1: think it was six thousand, very very early, road it 522 00:27:02,000 --> 00:27:05,280 Speaker 1: up to eight figures, so somewhere over ten million and 523 00:27:05,359 --> 00:27:09,480 Speaker 1: lost the lot. So I think it's happened to weigh 524 00:27:09,520 --> 00:27:13,960 Speaker 1: more people than than other people realize and you know, 525 00:27:14,080 --> 00:27:16,720 Speaker 1: I think therefore is something that he's talking about. Especially 526 00:27:17,160 --> 00:27:19,359 Speaker 1: I don't want another ball market to come and everyone thinks, oh, 527 00:27:19,400 --> 00:27:21,080 Speaker 1: I'm going to make a load of money and not 528 00:27:21,200 --> 00:27:23,919 Speaker 1: be aware of the risks. Because most of these crypto 529 00:27:23,960 --> 00:27:26,320 Speaker 1: networks are zero sum games. Most of them are going 530 00:27:26,359 --> 00:27:29,240 Speaker 1: to disappear, so you've got to be either a very 531 00:27:29,240 --> 00:27:32,360 Speaker 1: good trader or happy to dump your bags onto somebody else. 532 00:27:32,359 --> 00:27:34,400 Speaker 1: And you know, I think if it opens the conversation, 533 00:27:34,440 --> 00:27:37,600 Speaker 1: then it was definitely worth doing. Well. I really appreciate 534 00:27:37,680 --> 00:27:41,560 Speaker 1: you are joining us. Peter McCormick. Thank you, thank you, 535 00:27:41,680 --> 00:27:59,439 Speaker 1: Thanks so much, Tracy. I found peter story to be 536 00:27:59,480 --> 00:28:03,080 Speaker 1: really interesting because I do think that there's so many 537 00:28:03,160 --> 00:28:05,840 Speaker 1: people in his shoes and nobody. You know, as I 538 00:28:05,840 --> 00:28:08,200 Speaker 1: was saying at the end, not many people are willing 539 00:28:08,240 --> 00:28:11,919 Speaker 1: to admit it. I think most people either psychologically just 540 00:28:11,960 --> 00:28:13,960 Speaker 1: don't want to say they've lost so much money, or 541 00:28:14,000 --> 00:28:16,040 Speaker 1: maybe they want to be smarter than everyone else and 542 00:28:16,200 --> 00:28:19,040 Speaker 1: say they sold some at the top. But we know 543 00:28:19,119 --> 00:28:21,439 Speaker 1: that the vast majority of people can't have sold at 544 00:28:21,440 --> 00:28:23,240 Speaker 1: the top and they had a lot of people lost 545 00:28:23,240 --> 00:28:26,440 Speaker 1: a ton of money over the last year on crypto, 546 00:28:26,600 --> 00:28:28,920 Speaker 1: so it's kind of great that someone would just come 547 00:28:28,920 --> 00:28:31,240 Speaker 1: out and admit it. Oh, absolutely, And I thought, you know, 548 00:28:31,320 --> 00:28:34,960 Speaker 1: Peter clearly has a very optimistic attitude about his experience, 549 00:28:35,040 --> 00:28:37,120 Speaker 1: and you know, he says that he's learned a lot 550 00:28:37,160 --> 00:28:40,760 Speaker 1: from it. One of the interesting things that I find 551 00:28:40,920 --> 00:28:45,400 Speaker 1: about the bitcoin bubble, if you know, we can call 552 00:28:45,480 --> 00:28:48,480 Speaker 1: it that, is that we can. Yeah, one of the 553 00:28:48,480 --> 00:28:51,920 Speaker 1: more interesting things is about just because we basically live 554 00:28:52,080 --> 00:28:55,520 Speaker 1: our lives on the Internet now and people were so 555 00:28:55,640 --> 00:28:58,960 Speaker 1: vocal about cryptocurrencies, and you kind of alluded to this 556 00:28:59,040 --> 00:29:02,719 Speaker 1: in your question, people built up these big communities, People 557 00:29:02,760 --> 00:29:06,880 Speaker 1: built new careers like blockchain experts and specialists out of this. 558 00:29:07,480 --> 00:29:11,720 Speaker 1: I do think it makes the interest in crypto kind 559 00:29:11,760 --> 00:29:13,840 Speaker 1: of harder to let go, because if you think back 560 00:29:13,880 --> 00:29:16,680 Speaker 1: to the tech bubble, Yeah, you had a lot of people, 561 00:29:16,840 --> 00:29:20,760 Speaker 1: you know, working in um tech around the early two 562 00:29:20,800 --> 00:29:24,040 Speaker 1: thousands in various ways, but I don't think we had 563 00:29:24,160 --> 00:29:28,160 Speaker 1: like such an online presence where it became so visible. 564 00:29:28,560 --> 00:29:31,640 Speaker 1: I mean totally right. I mean, there were obviously message boards, 565 00:29:31,680 --> 00:29:34,480 Speaker 1: but there are so many people associated with crypto who 566 00:29:34,720 --> 00:29:37,520 Speaker 1: who went from say no one heard of them in 567 00:29:38,160 --> 00:29:43,440 Speaker 1: seventeen or the beginning of two regular TV stars by 568 00:29:43,440 --> 00:29:46,600 Speaker 1: the end of the year, and their entire identity is 569 00:29:46,640 --> 00:29:49,920 Speaker 1: wrapped up essentially in this one trade. So how do 570 00:29:49,960 --> 00:29:52,720 Speaker 1: you get off that trade if for some reason you're like, 571 00:29:52,880 --> 00:29:55,760 Speaker 1: whether it's for technical reasons or just price reasons, you 572 00:29:55,760 --> 00:29:58,120 Speaker 1: think it's over. You know what I think about it? 573 00:29:58,120 --> 00:30:01,680 Speaker 1: A lot is an interesting parallel is remember, and we 574 00:30:01,720 --> 00:30:04,080 Speaker 1: still have them from time to time, like when hedge 575 00:30:04,080 --> 00:30:07,120 Speaker 1: fund managers would announce a new longer short position and 576 00:30:07,160 --> 00:30:09,440 Speaker 1: get up on stage at a conference and deliver like 577 00:30:09,480 --> 00:30:14,680 Speaker 1: awe slide show. We definitely still Yeah, I think they've 578 00:30:14,720 --> 00:30:16,440 Speaker 1: gone down a little bit, but it's like, how do 579 00:30:16,480 --> 00:30:19,880 Speaker 1: you get up on stage and tie your identity to 580 00:30:20,000 --> 00:30:23,960 Speaker 1: some trade and then get out of it at the 581 00:30:24,040 --> 00:30:27,120 Speaker 1: right time when you've invested so much publicly into it. 582 00:30:27,160 --> 00:30:30,440 Speaker 1: I think that makes it even harder to essentially trade 583 00:30:30,520 --> 00:30:33,840 Speaker 1: rationally or trade smartly. Yeah, And there's another thing that 584 00:30:33,920 --> 00:30:36,560 Speaker 1: we've talked about on this podcast before which kind of 585 00:30:36,600 --> 00:30:40,720 Speaker 1: feeds into this, but this idea of echo chambers existing 586 00:30:40,760 --> 00:30:43,880 Speaker 1: on the internet. So you know, if you lose money, 587 00:30:44,520 --> 00:30:47,120 Speaker 1: you can sort of go on a message board and 588 00:30:47,160 --> 00:30:50,200 Speaker 1: find a bunch of like minded people in crypto who 589 00:30:50,240 --> 00:30:53,320 Speaker 1: are telling you just to you know, hoddle or hold 590 00:30:53,400 --> 00:30:56,520 Speaker 1: on for dear life, for whatever. I think it's very 591 00:30:56,520 --> 00:31:03,120 Speaker 1: easy to keep telling yourself the bowl narrative in that environment. Oh, 592 00:31:03,240 --> 00:31:05,800 Speaker 1: totally right. I And I think, like you know, in 593 00:31:05,840 --> 00:31:08,920 Speaker 1: the end, it's kind of all the same. All the 594 00:31:09,000 --> 00:31:13,120 Speaker 1: data confirms your priors, and it's really hard to fight 595 00:31:13,200 --> 00:31:17,040 Speaker 1: that tied psychologically when everyone is so excited as I 596 00:31:17,080 --> 00:31:20,520 Speaker 1: think of Peter's story and countless others tell. But yeah, 597 00:31:20,560 --> 00:31:25,200 Speaker 1: with social media and all of this stuff, echo chambers 598 00:31:24,920 --> 00:31:28,000 Speaker 1: it kind of it probably just makes it even harder. Yeah, 599 00:31:28,120 --> 00:31:31,280 Speaker 1: So I guess it's it's uh, it's suitable that that 600 00:31:31,480 --> 00:31:35,880 Speaker 1: digital currency was sort of the bubble for the digital age. 601 00:31:36,000 --> 00:31:40,240 Speaker 1: I guess, yeah, totally right. All right, Well, this has 602 00:31:40,240 --> 00:31:43,920 Speaker 1: been another edition of the ad Thoughts Podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway. 603 00:31:44,000 --> 00:31:47,160 Speaker 1: You can follow me on Twitter at Tracy Alloway and 604 00:31:47,200 --> 00:31:50,240 Speaker 1: I'm Joe Wisenthal. You can follow me on Twitter at 605 00:31:50,280 --> 00:31:54,400 Speaker 1: The Stalwart. You should follow our guest Peter McCormick on Twitter. 606 00:31:54,560 --> 00:31:58,080 Speaker 1: Definitely check out his uh tweet Stormy has it pinned 607 00:31:58,120 --> 00:32:00,120 Speaker 1: to the top of his bread, where he talks about 608 00:32:00,160 --> 00:32:03,960 Speaker 1: his whole experience. He's at Peter McCormick, and you should 609 00:32:03,960 --> 00:32:08,240 Speaker 1: follow our producer tofur Foreheads. He's at for heads Tea 610 00:32:08,480 --> 00:32:11,640 Speaker 1: on Twitter, as well as the Bloomberg head of podcast, 611 00:32:11,680 --> 00:32:15,760 Speaker 1: Francesco Levie at Francesco Today. Thanks for listening.