1 00:00:00,200 --> 00:00:03,200 Speaker 1: Hello everyone, I'm Matthew Freeman, Matt F. The Oracle. Welcome 2 00:00:03,240 --> 00:00:05,680 Speaker 1: to the Betting Pros Podcast, brought to you by bet MGM, 3 00:00:05,720 --> 00:00:07,200 Speaker 1: where you can get a risk free bet up to 4 00:00:07,320 --> 00:00:09,280 Speaker 1: a thousand dollars when you use the highly original promo 5 00:00:09,320 --> 00:00:12,720 Speaker 1: code betting Pros with your first deposit right here to 6 00:00:12,800 --> 00:00:16,400 Speaker 1: talk Week thirteen NFL Best Bets is Jay Croucher, the 7 00:00:16,480 --> 00:00:20,040 Speaker 1: lead betting analyst at NBC Sports. Jay, we are officially 8 00:00:20,040 --> 00:00:22,159 Speaker 1: in December, you know, like, where does the time go? 9 00:00:22,320 --> 00:00:23,760 Speaker 1: But how's the season going for you? 10 00:00:24,520 --> 00:00:25,520 Speaker 2: Yeah? It's been interesting. 11 00:00:25,560 --> 00:00:28,160 Speaker 3: I think it's an interesting NFL season when you have 12 00:00:28,440 --> 00:00:31,560 Speaker 3: largely two tames in the IFCA, you who are anchoring the 13 00:00:31,600 --> 00:00:33,879 Speaker 3: whole league, and a Y with the Chafs and the Bills, 14 00:00:34,120 --> 00:00:36,440 Speaker 3: and then the NFCA now is saying three tames I 15 00:00:36,440 --> 00:00:39,000 Speaker 3: think really separate themselves and the Eagles, the nine Is 16 00:00:39,520 --> 00:00:41,479 Speaker 3: and the Cowboys. But yeah, I mean it's been a 17 00:00:41,479 --> 00:00:44,240 Speaker 3: fund season for me personally. You're in a bit of 18 00:00:44,280 --> 00:00:46,960 Speaker 3: a new role at the moment, so I'm looking forward 19 00:00:47,040 --> 00:00:49,159 Speaker 3: to all the last couple months. All right. 20 00:00:49,200 --> 00:00:52,240 Speaker 1: Well, so now I have a couple of questions. First, 21 00:00:52,640 --> 00:00:55,680 Speaker 1: I need to ask about the new role you mentioned there. 22 00:00:55,720 --> 00:00:58,800 Speaker 1: So you were at Points Bet and now you've moved 23 00:00:58,800 --> 00:01:01,280 Speaker 1: into the media side. Can you talk about that a 24 00:01:01,280 --> 00:01:04,240 Speaker 1: little bit, you know, sort of like the transition, what 25 00:01:04,800 --> 00:01:08,360 Speaker 1: inspired the move and how you're adapting to it. 26 00:01:09,200 --> 00:01:09,480 Speaker 2: Yeah. 27 00:01:09,520 --> 00:01:12,120 Speaker 3: So, like you mentioned, I was at Points Bet. I 28 00:01:12,160 --> 00:01:15,319 Speaker 3: was the head of trading there, so working on everything 29 00:01:15,360 --> 00:01:20,319 Speaker 3: from setting lines, moving markets, moving prices, analyzing clients. And 30 00:01:20,360 --> 00:01:22,399 Speaker 3: now I work at NBC where my job is to 31 00:01:22,640 --> 00:01:25,280 Speaker 3: get to talk about betting from a content perspective. So 32 00:01:25,720 --> 00:01:27,840 Speaker 3: I think I'm pretty well positioned to be able to 33 00:01:27,840 --> 00:01:31,200 Speaker 3: do that given my previous role. I was skewing to 34 00:01:31,360 --> 00:01:33,800 Speaker 3: media stuff as well while I was at Points betcause 35 00:01:33,880 --> 00:01:35,199 Speaker 3: NBC was a partner there. 36 00:01:35,920 --> 00:01:37,800 Speaker 2: But look, to me, this role, this new role is 37 00:01:38,080 --> 00:01:39,120 Speaker 2: more fun. Frankly. 38 00:01:39,160 --> 00:01:42,160 Speaker 3: I don't have to write reports, to write emails, don't 39 00:01:42,200 --> 00:01:45,400 Speaker 3: have to analyze clients and write up the senior management 40 00:01:46,240 --> 00:01:48,280 Speaker 3: why we lost you know, a million dollars on the 41 00:01:48,320 --> 00:01:51,640 Speaker 3: Eagles covering or whatever. So yeah, really enjoying the new 42 00:01:51,720 --> 00:01:53,760 Speaker 3: role at NBC. It's a lot of fun. 43 00:01:54,240 --> 00:01:56,600 Speaker 1: Yeah. I think the part that you do, if it's 44 00:01:56,640 --> 00:01:59,280 Speaker 1: not every day, it's almost every day, but I think 45 00:01:59,320 --> 00:02:02,360 Speaker 1: you do it every Day with Drew Dinsick Well Capper, 46 00:02:02,640 --> 00:02:03,960 Speaker 1: I think that's a great listen. 47 00:02:04,880 --> 00:02:07,440 Speaker 3: Yeah, we do the Bet the Edge pod every day 48 00:02:07,520 --> 00:02:10,480 Speaker 3: Monday to Friday. I'm on each of those days outside 49 00:02:10,480 --> 00:02:13,600 Speaker 3: of Thursdays at the moment with Drew, who's you know, 50 00:02:13,680 --> 00:02:16,200 Speaker 3: one of the smartest guys around and also just you know, 51 00:02:16,320 --> 00:02:17,560 Speaker 3: a good guy to hang out. 52 00:02:17,360 --> 00:02:20,360 Speaker 2: With while you're listening to the podcast. So yeah, I 53 00:02:20,400 --> 00:02:22,800 Speaker 2: highly recommend that everyone get involved in that. 54 00:02:23,360 --> 00:02:25,160 Speaker 1: All right, So yeah, good show to check out. And 55 00:02:25,600 --> 00:02:27,959 Speaker 1: well Capper, you know he was on the show earlier 56 00:02:27,960 --> 00:02:31,280 Speaker 1: in the year, as you said, fantastic guy you mentioned earlier. 57 00:02:31,400 --> 00:02:33,280 Speaker 1: You know, we've got these two teams at the top 58 00:02:33,320 --> 00:02:36,679 Speaker 1: of the AFC, you know, supplemented by these three teams 59 00:02:37,360 --> 00:02:40,040 Speaker 1: at the top of the NFC. And I'm wondering, you know, 60 00:02:40,120 --> 00:02:42,000 Speaker 1: we I talked about this on the Tuesday show, but 61 00:02:42,000 --> 00:02:44,400 Speaker 1: I'd like to hear your perspective on this, how it 62 00:02:44,480 --> 00:02:47,200 Speaker 1: is that you would stack those teams, because those are 63 00:02:47,240 --> 00:02:49,320 Speaker 1: probably the teams that a lot of people have in 64 00:02:49,360 --> 00:02:51,320 Speaker 1: the top five, if not all of them are in 65 00:02:51,360 --> 00:02:53,280 Speaker 1: the top five, certainly they're all in the top eight. 66 00:02:53,360 --> 00:02:57,480 Speaker 1: But what are your kind of your relative thoughts on 67 00:02:57,560 --> 00:02:58,640 Speaker 1: all of those franchises. 68 00:02:59,480 --> 00:03:01,320 Speaker 3: Yeah, well, I think right now the best team in 69 00:03:01,360 --> 00:03:04,320 Speaker 3: the NFL is Kansas City, and that's largely because of 70 00:03:04,360 --> 00:03:06,400 Speaker 3: the injuries the Buffalo have on defense. 71 00:03:06,480 --> 00:03:09,280 Speaker 2: I think that fully healthy Buffalo are the best team 72 00:03:09,680 --> 00:03:10,360 Speaker 2: in the league. 73 00:03:10,400 --> 00:03:12,640 Speaker 3: But you know, with the injuries that the Bills have 74 00:03:12,680 --> 00:03:15,359 Speaker 3: had in the secondary, now in the defensive line. We'll 75 00:03:15,360 --> 00:03:18,120 Speaker 3: see what happens to Von Miller. Seems like he will 76 00:03:18,160 --> 00:03:20,960 Speaker 3: be back, but you know, with the injuries they dealt 77 00:03:21,000 --> 00:03:24,040 Speaker 3: with to Poyer and Hide in particular, I just don't 78 00:03:24,080 --> 00:03:26,880 Speaker 3: think this Bill's defense is as fearsome as it was 79 00:03:26,960 --> 00:03:29,000 Speaker 3: at the start of the season. It's not like the 80 00:03:29,080 --> 00:03:31,640 Speaker 3: Chiefs have an amazing defense either, but I think that 81 00:03:31,680 --> 00:03:35,240 Speaker 3: they with the level that Mahomes is playing at. I 82 00:03:35,280 --> 00:03:38,880 Speaker 3: think it has always been overblown the loss of Tyreek Hill, 83 00:03:38,960 --> 00:03:41,960 Speaker 3: because it's still Patrick Mahomes behind a great offensive line, 84 00:03:42,440 --> 00:03:45,960 Speaker 3: the best tight end ever maybe in Travis Kelcey, and 85 00:03:46,000 --> 00:03:49,680 Speaker 3: then they have enough with the wide receivers that they've 86 00:03:49,760 --> 00:03:52,480 Speaker 3: just got enough kind of cards in the deck between 87 00:03:52,880 --> 00:03:56,280 Speaker 3: Kaderius Tony and Juju Smith, Schuster and mvs and sky 88 00:03:56,400 --> 00:03:59,840 Speaker 3: Moore and Mikole Hardman. You know, some of those guys 89 00:04:00,080 --> 00:04:03,360 Speaker 3: to show up enough each week that you know they 90 00:04:03,440 --> 00:04:07,200 Speaker 3: have probably the best offensive football. So I think the Chiefs, 91 00:04:07,400 --> 00:04:09,880 Speaker 3: particularly if you're looking at futures markets, they should be 92 00:04:09,920 --> 00:04:12,280 Speaker 3: the Super Bowl favorite because they have a cleaner path 93 00:04:12,560 --> 00:04:15,480 Speaker 3: to the one seed than Buffalo, which is now you know, 94 00:04:15,560 --> 00:04:18,039 Speaker 3: with just that one buy available so crucial. So I 95 00:04:18,040 --> 00:04:22,720 Speaker 3: would go Chiefs one, Bills two, and then I mean Niners, Cowboys, 96 00:04:22,720 --> 00:04:25,279 Speaker 3: and Eagles. I think that they're all the same team. 97 00:04:25,480 --> 00:04:27,720 Speaker 3: To me, I think that the Niners might have the 98 00:04:27,800 --> 00:04:31,400 Speaker 3: highest ceiling when they're fully healthy, because they have arguably 99 00:04:31,400 --> 00:04:33,600 Speaker 3: the best defense in football. 100 00:04:33,720 --> 00:04:35,760 Speaker 2: And then you know, once we have all of. 101 00:04:35,800 --> 00:04:40,000 Speaker 3: McCaffrey, Deebo, Jimmy Kittle, are you all healthy on one 102 00:04:40,040 --> 00:04:43,279 Speaker 3: hundred percent, I think that offense has the potential to 103 00:04:43,279 --> 00:04:46,960 Speaker 3: be kind of ridiculous, Whereas you know with the Eagles, 104 00:04:46,960 --> 00:04:50,800 Speaker 3: we've seen that their troubles defensively. Also, I don't think 105 00:04:50,839 --> 00:04:53,960 Speaker 3: that Jalen Hurts is perhaps at the level of Dak Prescott. 106 00:04:53,960 --> 00:04:56,240 Speaker 3: When Dak is fully up and running, I think that's close. 107 00:04:56,320 --> 00:04:59,040 Speaker 3: But I still think Prescott is probably the best quarterback 108 00:04:59,120 --> 00:05:00,240 Speaker 3: of those three. 109 00:05:00,880 --> 00:05:02,360 Speaker 2: So the Cowboys, you. 110 00:05:02,279 --> 00:05:04,800 Speaker 3: Know, they've had random weird games this year, but for 111 00:05:04,839 --> 00:05:06,520 Speaker 3: the most part, I think they're right in that mix 112 00:05:06,560 --> 00:05:09,120 Speaker 3: as well, So those three can't really split them. If 113 00:05:09,160 --> 00:05:11,120 Speaker 3: I was forced to, I'd probably have Dallas the best, 114 00:05:11,440 --> 00:05:13,640 Speaker 3: then the Niners, then the Eagles. But what do you 115 00:05:13,720 --> 00:05:14,520 Speaker 3: think of that order? 116 00:05:15,040 --> 00:05:18,200 Speaker 1: I have them ranked exactly the same way, And for me, 117 00:05:18,560 --> 00:05:21,080 Speaker 1: there's a little bit of a tear drop between Dallas 118 00:05:21,080 --> 00:05:24,680 Speaker 1: and San Francisco and the Eagles. I have. Let me 119 00:05:24,680 --> 00:05:27,440 Speaker 1: see here this it feels like it's probably a little 120 00:05:27,480 --> 00:05:29,880 Speaker 1: too high, but I have Dallas is six points better 121 00:05:30,120 --> 00:05:33,800 Speaker 1: than an average team on neutral San Francisco five point 122 00:05:33,800 --> 00:05:37,120 Speaker 1: seven to five, Philly five, and then Kansas City and 123 00:05:37,120 --> 00:05:39,640 Speaker 1: Buffalo ahead of them. Kansas City I have seven and 124 00:05:39,680 --> 00:05:41,360 Speaker 1: a half, Buffalo seven. 125 00:05:42,720 --> 00:05:45,440 Speaker 3: Yeah, I think that's that's totally reasonable, and I think 126 00:05:45,480 --> 00:05:46,960 Speaker 3: it is fair to have now. 127 00:05:47,520 --> 00:05:49,080 Speaker 2: I do think that probably is a little bit of 128 00:05:49,080 --> 00:05:51,800 Speaker 2: separation between Dallas and the Eagles, just on what we've 129 00:05:51,800 --> 00:05:54,240 Speaker 2: seen in the past few weeks. I think that also 130 00:05:54,360 --> 00:05:56,640 Speaker 2: the way the Eagles struggled against the Colts is a 131 00:05:56,680 --> 00:05:59,039 Speaker 2: little bit of a concern given what the Colts did 132 00:05:59,080 --> 00:06:02,359 Speaker 2: against the Steelers and the Niners. To me, it's just 133 00:06:02,360 --> 00:06:04,919 Speaker 2: my only question of health there and we're going to 134 00:06:04,920 --> 00:06:07,480 Speaker 2: get into that game. But like it's Jimmy. 135 00:06:07,240 --> 00:06:09,159 Speaker 3: Okay with the nay or is that like an mcl 136 00:06:09,240 --> 00:06:11,000 Speaker 3: sprian is just going to be hidden the rest of 137 00:06:11,040 --> 00:06:13,760 Speaker 3: the y. What's going on with McCaffrey's knae, what's going 138 00:06:13,760 --> 00:06:16,520 Speaker 3: on with Davar's whole kind of lower body, So that 139 00:06:16,560 --> 00:06:19,040 Speaker 3: would be to concern with the nine is there but 140 00:06:19,080 --> 00:06:19,960 Speaker 3: fully firing. 141 00:06:20,080 --> 00:06:21,960 Speaker 2: I think I have the potential to be the best 142 00:06:21,960 --> 00:06:22,839 Speaker 2: team in the NFA. 143 00:06:23,279 --> 00:06:25,640 Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely, all right, So this morning I published on 144 00:06:25,680 --> 00:06:29,520 Speaker 1: betting pros my projected spreads for every game, and per usual, 145 00:06:29,560 --> 00:06:32,520 Speaker 1: I established betting positions early. But there are still some 146 00:06:32,600 --> 00:06:34,840 Speaker 1: games that I like and Jay has some bets that 147 00:06:34,920 --> 00:06:37,240 Speaker 1: he likes as well. So that is what we're going 148 00:06:37,279 --> 00:06:40,159 Speaker 1: to cover for the rest of the show. And I 149 00:06:40,200 --> 00:06:43,440 Speaker 1: want to get us started out with definitely not the 150 00:06:43,480 --> 00:06:45,680 Speaker 1: Super Bowl, but a game that people are going to 151 00:06:45,720 --> 00:06:48,600 Speaker 1: be watching with some anticipation, and that is the Browns 152 00:06:49,120 --> 00:06:51,640 Speaker 1: at the Texans. And let me just make sure that 153 00:06:51,720 --> 00:06:55,320 Speaker 1: I'm looking at the most recent lines here. Yeah, this 154 00:06:55,440 --> 00:06:58,200 Speaker 1: number is still seven, and man, I gotta say it 155 00:06:58,200 --> 00:07:01,320 Speaker 1: feels disgusting, but I am on the Browns in this 156 00:07:01,400 --> 00:07:04,559 Speaker 1: spot is seven point favorites, and I grabbed this early 157 00:07:04,640 --> 00:07:06,760 Speaker 1: on the look aheadline at five and a half because 158 00:07:06,800 --> 00:07:09,800 Speaker 1: even then, before these two teams played in Week twelve, 159 00:07:09,880 --> 00:07:11,320 Speaker 1: I didn't think there was much of a chance that 160 00:07:11,400 --> 00:07:14,360 Speaker 1: this line would be below seven, So I logged it 161 00:07:14,360 --> 00:07:16,520 Speaker 1: at five and a half in the Betting Pros app. 162 00:07:16,520 --> 00:07:18,800 Speaker 1: And here comes the plug. The Betting Pros app where 163 00:07:18,840 --> 00:07:21,520 Speaker 1: you can sync up with sports books, get free betting 164 00:07:21,560 --> 00:07:24,160 Speaker 1: advice and picks, and track experts line movement in your 165 00:07:24,200 --> 00:07:26,640 Speaker 1: own bets, and you can set alerts. We monitor all 166 00:07:26,640 --> 00:07:30,160 Speaker 1: the major sports books, including BETMGM. We use the promo 167 00:07:30,160 --> 00:07:32,880 Speaker 1: code Betting Pros for your thousand dollars risk free bet 168 00:07:33,000 --> 00:07:35,400 Speaker 1: at first deposit, I was the plug within the plug. 169 00:07:35,880 --> 00:07:38,320 Speaker 1: We monitor all the sports books so when one of 170 00:07:38,360 --> 00:07:41,160 Speaker 1: them has lines that move and it hits a threshold 171 00:07:41,160 --> 00:07:42,960 Speaker 1: that you set, you can get an alert and make 172 00:07:43,000 --> 00:07:45,440 Speaker 1: the bet. So download the app to day in the 173 00:07:45,480 --> 00:07:49,320 Speaker 1: Apple or Google Play Store. Okay, so enough enough of 174 00:07:49,360 --> 00:07:52,200 Speaker 1: the reads here I can actually get into talking about 175 00:07:52,200 --> 00:07:56,040 Speaker 1: this game again. It feels disgusting to be betting on 176 00:07:56,360 --> 00:07:59,960 Speaker 1: a road favorite of seven points or more in general, 177 00:08:00,800 --> 00:08:03,280 Speaker 1: and then especially to be betting on a quarterback who 178 00:08:03,320 --> 00:08:05,480 Speaker 1: hasn't played in a year and a half, and then 179 00:08:05,560 --> 00:08:08,440 Speaker 1: all of the other things that are surrounding this game. 180 00:08:08,480 --> 00:08:11,520 Speaker 1: But you know, per set, Jacoby Brissett, I thought he 181 00:08:11,560 --> 00:08:14,400 Speaker 1: did a pretty good job filling in for Deshaun Watson 182 00:08:14,400 --> 00:08:16,280 Speaker 1: to open the year. This was the best year of 183 00:08:16,280 --> 00:08:20,280 Speaker 1: his career. You know, he was I would say above average, 184 00:08:20,840 --> 00:08:23,960 Speaker 1: like conservatively above average. In some metrics. He was actually 185 00:08:24,000 --> 00:08:26,400 Speaker 1: like pretty good. He was top ten in composite EPA 186 00:08:26,440 --> 00:08:29,600 Speaker 1: and completion percentage, number fourteen in adjusted yards per attempt, 187 00:08:29,680 --> 00:08:33,679 Speaker 1: number seven in ESPN QBR. But I still think Watson 188 00:08:33,760 --> 00:08:36,520 Speaker 1: is unquestionably better. I have him as four points better 189 00:08:36,760 --> 00:08:39,760 Speaker 1: than Jacoby Brissett. He might be rusty in his first 190 00:08:39,760 --> 00:08:43,559 Speaker 1: game back to action, especially new team, new head coach, 191 00:08:43,840 --> 00:08:47,120 Speaker 1: new teammates, new offensive system, but he is still an 192 00:08:47,200 --> 00:08:50,720 Speaker 1: upgrade on berseet and in his twenty twenty campaign, he 193 00:08:50,800 --> 00:08:53,120 Speaker 1: was number one in the league in passing yards, number 194 00:08:53,160 --> 00:08:56,120 Speaker 1: two in adjusted yards per attempt. In his absence, the 195 00:08:56,160 --> 00:08:58,960 Speaker 1: Browns have had a top twelve offense, maybe even a 196 00:08:59,040 --> 00:09:02,319 Speaker 1: top six offense, number six in EPA per play, number 197 00:09:02,320 --> 00:09:06,320 Speaker 1: four in offensive DVOA. I think it's unlikely that the 198 00:09:06,360 --> 00:09:09,959 Speaker 1: offense is worse with Watson, and it could be significantly better. 199 00:09:10,400 --> 00:09:12,480 Speaker 1: And as for the Texans, they're the worst team in 200 00:09:12,520 --> 00:09:14,679 Speaker 1: the league, you know, I don't think there's any question 201 00:09:14,720 --> 00:09:17,319 Speaker 1: about this. Now in theory this is their super Bowl. 202 00:09:17,640 --> 00:09:20,200 Speaker 1: They could have a larger home field advantage than usual. 203 00:09:20,320 --> 00:09:23,640 Speaker 1: Like I imagine that it will be a pretty hostile 204 00:09:23,800 --> 00:09:29,360 Speaker 1: environment for Deshaun Watson in Houston given everything that transpired 205 00:09:29,520 --> 00:09:32,480 Speaker 1: and the departure with the Texans, So, you know, for 206 00:09:32,559 --> 00:09:35,240 Speaker 1: the team more than for Watson. I think this is, 207 00:09:35,280 --> 00:09:37,839 Speaker 1: you know, the hashtag revenge game, but I don't think 208 00:09:37,880 --> 00:09:40,800 Speaker 1: that actually matters, you know, Like, even as a backup quarterback, 209 00:09:41,600 --> 00:09:44,400 Speaker 1: Kyle Allen is a subpar player and now he's the 210 00:09:44,440 --> 00:09:48,160 Speaker 1: starter for the Texans. Their offense is lifeless, their defense 211 00:09:48,320 --> 00:09:51,040 Speaker 1: is horrible, and they might be without number one cornerback 212 00:09:51,080 --> 00:09:53,439 Speaker 1: Derek Stingley, who's been out for the past couple of 213 00:09:53,480 --> 00:09:57,040 Speaker 1: weeks with a hamstring injury. Didn't practice yesterday. I'm skeptical 214 00:09:57,080 --> 00:10:01,200 Speaker 1: he returns this week. So unfortunately for Houston, this matchup 215 00:10:01,280 --> 00:10:04,840 Speaker 1: to me points towards a big win for Cleveland. Again, 216 00:10:04,880 --> 00:10:07,480 Speaker 1: this number of seven I haven't projected at eight point 217 00:10:07,520 --> 00:10:09,520 Speaker 1: twenty five, and given that I can get it on 218 00:10:09,559 --> 00:10:11,959 Speaker 1: the key number of seven, I do for pretty decent 219 00:10:12,000 --> 00:10:14,120 Speaker 1: betting it. Jay, I don't know if you have any 220 00:10:14,120 --> 00:10:14,959 Speaker 1: thoughts on this game. 221 00:10:15,440 --> 00:10:17,559 Speaker 3: Yeah, I would be pretty shocked if it closes seven. 222 00:10:17,600 --> 00:10:19,199 Speaker 3: To be honest, I think this line should be minus 223 00:10:19,240 --> 00:10:21,960 Speaker 3: eight and a half. And the thing with the Sean, 224 00:10:22,480 --> 00:10:24,280 Speaker 3: I think that the Browns are the most interesting team 225 00:10:24,280 --> 00:10:25,880 Speaker 3: in the league, which is weird to say because they're 226 00:10:25,880 --> 00:10:28,520 Speaker 3: four and seven, But at the same time, I think that. 227 00:10:28,640 --> 00:10:31,560 Speaker 2: Just between the talent they have outside of the. 228 00:10:31,559 --> 00:10:34,120 Speaker 3: Quarterback position and then DeShawn Watson, who last time we 229 00:10:34,120 --> 00:10:36,920 Speaker 3: saw him was playing the top five quarterback level and 230 00:10:36,920 --> 00:10:39,920 Speaker 3: then just throw him in. He is clearly the most 231 00:10:40,000 --> 00:10:42,559 Speaker 3: high variance player in the NFL. The rest of the way. 232 00:10:42,880 --> 00:10:45,520 Speaker 2: He could be an MVP level player the rest of 233 00:10:45,559 --> 00:10:47,800 Speaker 2: the way, and he could be way worse than Jacob Brissette. 234 00:10:47,800 --> 00:10:48,520 Speaker 2: We just don't know. 235 00:10:48,880 --> 00:10:51,520 Speaker 3: But for this game, I don't think it really matters 236 00:10:51,600 --> 00:10:53,720 Speaker 3: because I don't think that he's going to be asked 237 00:10:53,720 --> 00:10:57,079 Speaker 3: to be an MVP candidate because the Texans have an 238 00:10:57,160 --> 00:10:59,720 Speaker 3: outlier bad run defense and you know, now he get 239 00:10:59,760 --> 00:11:01,640 Speaker 3: to go against Nick Chubb, and one of the best 240 00:11:01,679 --> 00:11:04,760 Speaker 3: offensive lines in football. So I think that at the 241 00:11:04,760 --> 00:11:07,200 Speaker 3: Browns they should be fine in this spot. To me, 242 00:11:07,559 --> 00:11:10,040 Speaker 3: one of the weirdest things of the entire season is 243 00:11:10,080 --> 00:11:12,800 Speaker 3: why Cleveland's defense has been so bad. I just don't 244 00:11:12,840 --> 00:11:16,080 Speaker 3: really understand why they're twenty ninth in DBOA on defense 245 00:11:16,120 --> 00:11:20,400 Speaker 3: when they have Miles Garrett and Gedevian Clowney and they've 246 00:11:20,400 --> 00:11:23,400 Speaker 3: gotten a really good season out of Newsom and Denzel 247 00:11:23,440 --> 00:11:27,080 Speaker 3: Ward's been terrible for some reason. John Johnson just hasn't 248 00:11:27,120 --> 00:11:29,120 Speaker 3: been the guy that he was in Los Angeles. So 249 00:11:29,440 --> 00:11:31,320 Speaker 3: kind of keep on waiting for them to just turn 250 00:11:31,360 --> 00:11:34,120 Speaker 3: into an average defense and you know, maybe it will happen. 251 00:11:34,640 --> 00:11:36,680 Speaker 3: Also with twelve weeks in and that hasn't happened, so 252 00:11:37,160 --> 00:11:39,600 Speaker 3: that gives them a lot of upside. So really interesting 253 00:11:39,679 --> 00:11:41,040 Speaker 3: tame the rest of the way, and I think they 254 00:11:41,040 --> 00:11:42,520 Speaker 3: should be able to handle the Texans. 255 00:11:42,760 --> 00:11:45,280 Speaker 1: All right. Well, another team that is really intriguing and 256 00:11:45,520 --> 00:11:48,920 Speaker 1: in the same division Baltimore. And this is a game 257 00:11:49,080 --> 00:11:51,400 Speaker 1: that you were looking at and I believe you are 258 00:11:51,400 --> 00:11:53,920 Speaker 1: on Baltimore here at eight and a half. Talk to 259 00:11:53,960 --> 00:11:55,280 Speaker 1: me about what you're seeing in this game. 260 00:11:55,760 --> 00:11:58,120 Speaker 3: Yeah, I think this line will close double digits. I 261 00:11:58,160 --> 00:12:01,640 Speaker 3: have at minus ten and a half Baltimore. Their offensive 262 00:12:01,679 --> 00:12:04,760 Speaker 3: issues have been a little bit overblown in terms of 263 00:12:05,120 --> 00:12:07,560 Speaker 3: the lack of receivers that Lamar has, and yes, that 264 00:12:07,679 --> 00:12:10,600 Speaker 3: definitely limits their ceiling the rest of the way, but 265 00:12:10,800 --> 00:12:13,480 Speaker 3: it's still Lamar Jackson. He gives you an incredibly high 266 00:12:13,520 --> 00:12:16,439 Speaker 3: flow on offense, and you've still got Mark Andrews, who's 267 00:12:16,440 --> 00:12:20,120 Speaker 3: the top three by any definition to end in the league, 268 00:12:20,160 --> 00:12:22,720 Speaker 3: and Devin Duvenet and DeMarcus Robinson, who you know, it's 269 00:12:22,720 --> 00:12:24,040 Speaker 3: not like the second coming. 270 00:12:23,840 --> 00:12:26,760 Speaker 2: Of Tyree killing Jalen Waddle, but they've been fine. 271 00:12:26,920 --> 00:12:29,280 Speaker 3: So I think there's enough there on offense against the 272 00:12:29,320 --> 00:12:31,960 Speaker 3: Denver defense that definitely isn't what it was at the 273 00:12:31,960 --> 00:12:34,880 Speaker 3: start of the year. They lose Bradley Charb Patsa Taan 274 00:12:34,960 --> 00:12:37,080 Speaker 3: has been lit up lately in ways that he wasn't 275 00:12:37,080 --> 00:12:39,480 Speaker 3: getting lit up at the start of the season, and 276 00:12:39,520 --> 00:12:42,079 Speaker 3: I just think there's Denver offense is just completely hopeless 277 00:12:42,480 --> 00:12:44,880 Speaker 3: at this point. You know, Russell Wilson is playing like 278 00:12:44,880 --> 00:12:48,560 Speaker 3: a bottom ten quarterback. There's not enough on the offensive 279 00:12:48,559 --> 00:12:51,679 Speaker 3: line or skill positions to compensate. So Baltimore on the 280 00:12:51,760 --> 00:12:54,600 Speaker 3: number two team by dv Away. Denver are the number 281 00:12:54,600 --> 00:12:58,240 Speaker 3: twenty sixteen by dv Away. So I think that Baltimore 282 00:12:58,280 --> 00:13:00,319 Speaker 3: will have enough here to be able to have a 283 00:13:00,760 --> 00:13:01,840 Speaker 3: night and a half points spread. 284 00:13:01,920 --> 00:13:02,520 Speaker 2: What do you think? 285 00:13:03,200 --> 00:13:06,880 Speaker 1: Yeah, I have this projected exactly at eight and a half. 286 00:13:07,280 --> 00:13:09,920 Speaker 1: I you know, it's interesting. Normally, if you like a 287 00:13:10,120 --> 00:13:12,680 Speaker 1: larger favorite, you know, more than a touchdown I would 288 00:13:12,679 --> 00:13:14,679 Speaker 1: say qualifies as a larger favorite. Normally, if you like 289 00:13:14,720 --> 00:13:17,480 Speaker 1: a larger favorite, you also probably incline a little bit 290 00:13:17,559 --> 00:13:20,800 Speaker 1: more to the over. But this game just, I mean, 291 00:13:20,920 --> 00:13:24,760 Speaker 1: it is so disgusting. You wonder how do how do 292 00:13:25,160 --> 00:13:28,199 Speaker 1: the Broncos score points in this game? And the Broncos 293 00:13:28,720 --> 00:13:32,400 Speaker 1: you mentioned some of the exploitability that they have in 294 00:13:32,440 --> 00:13:35,360 Speaker 1: their defense, but it's still I say, top five, top 295 00:13:35,400 --> 00:13:38,320 Speaker 1: five defense. This is just an under team. And so 296 00:13:39,400 --> 00:13:42,839 Speaker 1: even though I do like the Ravens to win this game, 297 00:13:42,960 --> 00:13:44,480 Speaker 1: and if I had to bet on them at eight 298 00:13:44,520 --> 00:13:46,319 Speaker 1: and a half, which is where I have it projected, 299 00:13:46,400 --> 00:13:49,679 Speaker 1: I would still go on the Ravens versus the Broncos. 300 00:13:49,960 --> 00:13:52,640 Speaker 1: But even at thirty nine and a half, I still 301 00:13:52,679 --> 00:13:55,680 Speaker 1: probably like the under more than I like either of 302 00:13:55,720 --> 00:13:57,720 Speaker 1: the sides. I mean, the Broncos are I think they're 303 00:13:58,120 --> 00:14:00,959 Speaker 1: one and eleven, sorry, one in ten in terms of 304 00:14:01,040 --> 00:14:03,200 Speaker 1: they're over under, so they're ten and one to the 305 00:14:03,320 --> 00:14:07,240 Speaker 1: under in terms of totals. That is just unfathomable. But 306 00:14:07,280 --> 00:14:09,240 Speaker 1: they're a team that's built for it because they've got 307 00:14:09,240 --> 00:14:12,960 Speaker 1: a great defense and just an absolute like worst in 308 00:14:13,040 --> 00:14:14,480 Speaker 1: the league type of offense. 309 00:14:15,440 --> 00:14:15,760 Speaker 2: Yeah. 310 00:14:15,840 --> 00:14:18,000 Speaker 3: I think that this is like, it's the perfect spot 311 00:14:18,080 --> 00:14:20,000 Speaker 3: for a long teaser to be able to take it 312 00:14:20,000 --> 00:14:21,480 Speaker 3: from eight and a half down to two. 313 00:14:21,360 --> 00:14:23,040 Speaker 2: And a half because the total is thirty nine and 314 00:14:23,080 --> 00:14:23,360 Speaker 2: a half. 315 00:14:23,360 --> 00:14:26,200 Speaker 3: So it's just, I guess, the perfect spot, particularly if 316 00:14:26,240 --> 00:14:28,480 Speaker 3: you like man you like the Ravens minus eight and 317 00:14:28,520 --> 00:14:31,119 Speaker 3: a half anyway, So it's also. 318 00:14:31,320 --> 00:14:33,880 Speaker 2: Maybe the biggest coaching mismatch of the week. 319 00:14:34,080 --> 00:14:36,240 Speaker 3: I would say that John Harbore is clearly one of 320 00:14:36,280 --> 00:14:38,640 Speaker 3: the best coaches in the league, and Nathaniel Hackett is 321 00:14:38,640 --> 00:14:41,200 Speaker 3: out there doing his Lionel Huts impression every week. 322 00:14:41,280 --> 00:14:43,280 Speaker 2: So yeah, I like the Ravens in this spot. 323 00:14:43,320 --> 00:14:46,240 Speaker 3: I think it will close higher, but certainly the teaser 324 00:14:46,280 --> 00:14:49,000 Speaker 3: options get it through seven through three out to two 325 00:14:49,040 --> 00:14:50,440 Speaker 3: and a half is also pretty appealing. 326 00:14:51,080 --> 00:14:52,880 Speaker 1: Yeah, I like the call on the Wan teaser there. 327 00:14:52,880 --> 00:14:55,320 Speaker 1: I think that that's pretty sharp. And yeah, if if 328 00:14:55,320 --> 00:14:58,240 Speaker 1: this line continues to move up, grab it now. You 329 00:14:58,280 --> 00:14:59,960 Speaker 1: know that now is the time to grab it if 330 00:15:00,000 --> 00:15:02,480 Speaker 1: you're looking to tease. All right. So another game that 331 00:15:03,640 --> 00:15:08,680 Speaker 1: has caught my attention here the Giants hosting the Commanders. Giants. 332 00:15:08,960 --> 00:15:11,120 Speaker 1: Let me make sure I have the right line here. 333 00:15:11,160 --> 00:15:13,120 Speaker 1: Two and a half is the number that I am 334 00:15:13,600 --> 00:15:15,600 Speaker 1: that I am seeing in the market, and you know 335 00:15:15,640 --> 00:15:18,880 Speaker 1: it's it's moved up, so moved against the Giants. I 336 00:15:19,040 --> 00:15:21,680 Speaker 1: was the moron who bet this line earlier than I 337 00:15:21,720 --> 00:15:26,480 Speaker 1: probably needed to. But man, I still like this line here. 338 00:15:26,520 --> 00:15:30,880 Speaker 1: And you know, trends whatever, sometimes there might be some 339 00:15:30,920 --> 00:15:33,400 Speaker 1: signal there. But Daniel Jones is an underdog. Has been 340 00:15:33,440 --> 00:15:35,760 Speaker 1: pretty good twenty three and fourteen against the spread as 341 00:15:35,800 --> 00:15:38,160 Speaker 1: an underdog, eight and three against the spread as a 342 00:15:38,240 --> 00:15:42,400 Speaker 1: dog within division. And you know, looking at this matchup 343 00:15:42,440 --> 00:15:46,480 Speaker 1: here between the Commander's defense and the Giants offense, that 344 00:15:46,600 --> 00:15:49,479 Speaker 1: defense is the strength of the team for the Commanders, 345 00:15:49,720 --> 00:15:54,440 Speaker 1: and it's good, it's not great. And defenses that aren't 346 00:15:54,480 --> 00:15:57,600 Speaker 1: either really great or really bad, like defenses that aren't 347 00:15:57,640 --> 00:15:59,920 Speaker 1: you know, an outlier in some way, they're all kind 348 00:15:59,920 --> 00:16:03,120 Speaker 1: of generally speaking, in my opinion, like on a continuum 349 00:16:03,440 --> 00:16:06,640 Speaker 1: and the Commanders, they do have a defensive edge over 350 00:16:06,680 --> 00:16:09,400 Speaker 1: the Giants offense, but it's not a massive edge. And 351 00:16:09,560 --> 00:16:12,240 Speaker 1: EPA per play, the Commander's defense is number seven, the 352 00:16:12,280 --> 00:16:16,240 Speaker 1: Giants offense is number eleven. In total DVA, the Commander's 353 00:16:16,280 --> 00:16:19,640 Speaker 1: defense is number eleven, the Giants offense is number sixteen. Like, 354 00:16:19,680 --> 00:16:23,040 Speaker 1: there's not a wide gap in quality in my opinion 355 00:16:23,120 --> 00:16:25,560 Speaker 1: between these two units. And even when you look at 356 00:16:25,560 --> 00:16:28,840 Speaker 1: the matchups of passing and running game, I don't see 357 00:16:28,840 --> 00:16:31,800 Speaker 1: a large edge for the defense. The Commander's defense is 358 00:16:32,080 --> 00:16:35,960 Speaker 1: number nine. In dropback EPA, the Giants offense is number twelve, 359 00:16:35,960 --> 00:16:39,080 Speaker 1: and rush EPA the Giants offense is number eight. The 360 00:16:39,080 --> 00:16:42,000 Speaker 1: Commander's defense is number five. Again, like the Commanders, they 361 00:16:42,080 --> 00:16:45,240 Speaker 1: have a small defensive edge. I don't think it's enough 362 00:16:45,280 --> 00:16:47,520 Speaker 1: to explain the spread. And then you look at the 363 00:16:47,560 --> 00:16:50,600 Speaker 1: areas where I think the Giants definitely have an edge. 364 00:16:50,680 --> 00:16:53,040 Speaker 1: They're at home, they have three extra days of rest 365 00:16:53,120 --> 00:16:56,240 Speaker 1: because they played on Thanksgiving. They could be healthier given that. 366 00:16:56,480 --> 00:16:59,680 Speaker 1: If you look at the Wednesday injury report, right tackle 367 00:16:59,720 --> 00:17:03,280 Speaker 1: Evan Neil, center John Feliciano tied end Daniel Bellinger and 368 00:17:03,360 --> 00:17:06,480 Speaker 1: quarterback Fabian Moreau. All of those guys who missed last week, 369 00:17:06,640 --> 00:17:09,760 Speaker 1: they were able to open this week with the practice 370 00:17:09,840 --> 00:17:12,879 Speaker 1: and as a strategist and decision maker, head coach Brian 371 00:17:12,920 --> 00:17:16,520 Speaker 1: Dable probably better than head coach Ron Riviera. And then 372 00:17:16,520 --> 00:17:19,720 Speaker 1: you have quarterback Daniel Jones, who is unquestionably better than 373 00:17:19,760 --> 00:17:23,840 Speaker 1: Taylor Heineke. And again, Jones as an underdog has performed 374 00:17:23,840 --> 00:17:25,800 Speaker 1: well in that situation. So if you give me a 375 00:17:25,840 --> 00:17:29,639 Speaker 1: divisional matchup between two teams that are roughly in the 376 00:17:29,680 --> 00:17:32,200 Speaker 1: same tier, and I think they are in the same tier, 377 00:17:32,760 --> 00:17:35,879 Speaker 1: I would give the edge to Washington, but it's not again, 378 00:17:35,920 --> 00:17:38,080 Speaker 1: a massive edge over the Giants. You give me a 379 00:17:38,119 --> 00:17:40,720 Speaker 1: divisional matchup between two teams in the same tier, but 380 00:17:40,800 --> 00:17:42,680 Speaker 1: I can bet on the team with the better coach 381 00:17:42,880 --> 00:17:46,480 Speaker 1: and the better quarterback as a home underdog, I'm probably 382 00:17:46,520 --> 00:17:48,720 Speaker 1: gonna do it most of the time. So that's how 383 00:17:48,760 --> 00:17:50,720 Speaker 1: I'm viewing this game. Jay, I don't know if you 384 00:17:50,760 --> 00:17:51,640 Speaker 1: have any opinions on. 385 00:17:51,600 --> 00:17:54,960 Speaker 3: It, Yeatnam, I'm with you, not just because some guests 386 00:17:55,000 --> 00:17:56,719 Speaker 3: on the show do. I do agree with you one 387 00:17:56,760 --> 00:17:59,120 Speaker 3: hundred percent. I think that this line should be command 388 00:17:59,119 --> 00:18:01,800 Speaker 3: as minus one, so two and a half. It's not 389 00:18:01,840 --> 00:18:04,360 Speaker 3: a massive, massive edge, given that we're talking about under 390 00:18:04,359 --> 00:18:06,560 Speaker 3: a field goal, but it is definitely an edge, and 391 00:18:06,600 --> 00:18:08,960 Speaker 3: I think you touched on it. The main thing is 392 00:18:09,040 --> 00:18:11,399 Speaker 3: with the Giants' injury report, like they got to the 393 00:18:11,440 --> 00:18:14,159 Speaker 3: point against the Cowboys where it's just not viable, like 394 00:18:14,160 --> 00:18:16,640 Speaker 3: they're a bad team already, and then they're just losing 395 00:18:16,680 --> 00:18:19,240 Speaker 3: everyone on top of that, and mainly in the second 396 00:18:19,240 --> 00:18:22,320 Speaker 3: era in the offensive line, and you mentioned the names Feliciano, 397 00:18:22,440 --> 00:18:26,000 Speaker 3: Evan Neil as well as full practice Favian Morrow, who 398 00:18:26,080 --> 00:18:29,200 Speaker 3: with the Dorri Jackson being out, becomes even more important. 399 00:18:29,280 --> 00:18:31,360 Speaker 2: He probably gets the Terry McLaurin matchup. 400 00:18:31,640 --> 00:18:33,640 Speaker 3: And I think the other thing with the Commanders, who 401 00:18:33,640 --> 00:18:35,520 Speaker 3: are somehow seven and five, that has kind of been 402 00:18:35,520 --> 00:18:37,719 Speaker 3: lost in the wash, is that Taylor Henik's terrible. 403 00:18:37,960 --> 00:18:40,720 Speaker 2: He's a dreadful quarterback. He's a bottom five quarterback in 404 00:18:40,720 --> 00:18:41,680 Speaker 2: the NFL. 405 00:18:42,040 --> 00:18:44,800 Speaker 3: And it's been the defense that's carried them and they're 406 00:18:44,880 --> 00:18:46,919 Speaker 3: just getting enough on offense. But yeah, I think with 407 00:18:47,200 --> 00:18:50,920 Speaker 3: a bit of additional rest, with the coaching advantage playing 408 00:18:50,960 --> 00:18:53,760 Speaker 3: at home, and also like if you like the Giants 409 00:18:53,880 --> 00:18:55,480 Speaker 3: and you think they're going to win, then you should 410 00:18:55,480 --> 00:18:57,480 Speaker 3: bet on Brian Dable now to win Coach of the 411 00:18:57,520 --> 00:19:01,639 Speaker 3: Year because his odds will plummet and shortened significantly if 412 00:19:01,640 --> 00:19:04,119 Speaker 3: they win this game, if they get to Hype wins 413 00:19:04,160 --> 00:19:07,879 Speaker 3: somehow because he is doing the most with the least. 414 00:19:07,600 --> 00:19:09,520 Speaker 2: At the moment. So yeah, I'm definitely with you on 415 00:19:09,560 --> 00:19:10,160 Speaker 2: the Giants. 416 00:19:10,440 --> 00:19:13,040 Speaker 1: I love that call, the forward looking future call that 417 00:19:13,160 --> 00:19:16,879 Speaker 1: that's fantastic there, all right, a game that might be 418 00:19:16,920 --> 00:19:20,000 Speaker 1: the one I'm most looking forward to. This week we 419 00:19:20,080 --> 00:19:22,879 Speaker 1: have the matchup of the Dolphins going on the road 420 00:19:24,040 --> 00:19:27,680 Speaker 1: to San Francisco, So a matchup of two guys who 421 00:19:27,680 --> 00:19:30,879 Speaker 1: know each other really well and Mike McDaniel and Kyle Shanahan. 422 00:19:31,600 --> 00:19:34,760 Speaker 1: And you know, I think there's you know, there still 423 00:19:34,840 --> 00:19:38,320 Speaker 1: might be some value in the sides, but the total 424 00:19:38,400 --> 00:19:41,080 Speaker 1: is where you're looking here under forty six and a half. 425 00:19:41,359 --> 00:19:43,480 Speaker 1: Talk to me about how you see this game playing out. 426 00:19:43,760 --> 00:19:46,440 Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't understand why this total is so high 427 00:19:46,480 --> 00:19:49,240 Speaker 3: with all the injuries on both offenses, and to me, 428 00:19:49,560 --> 00:19:52,919 Speaker 3: the big thing and maybe the biggest injury to watch 429 00:19:52,960 --> 00:19:54,440 Speaker 3: for the set for the last two months of the 430 00:19:54,480 --> 00:19:57,760 Speaker 3: season is tron Omstead. Yes, Dolphins are a different team 431 00:19:57,960 --> 00:20:01,000 Speaker 3: without Tarroon Amstead. It happened even against the Text where 432 00:20:01,119 --> 00:20:04,200 Speaker 3: as soon as Armstead went out, Tour was getting sacked 433 00:20:04,240 --> 00:20:06,040 Speaker 3: on thirty six percent of his dropbacks. 434 00:20:06,040 --> 00:20:06,680 Speaker 2: That's absurd. 435 00:20:06,720 --> 00:20:09,960 Speaker 3: He was averaging three yards per drop back. They just 436 00:20:10,000 --> 00:20:13,720 Speaker 3: look like a completely different offensive line. The backups and 437 00:20:14,040 --> 00:20:17,719 Speaker 3: shells not great. So I think that going up against 438 00:20:17,800 --> 00:20:21,240 Speaker 3: Nick Bosa and co. Without toront Armstead is going to 439 00:20:21,280 --> 00:20:24,560 Speaker 3: be a problem for Miami. And also if you look 440 00:20:24,560 --> 00:20:26,720 Speaker 3: at the Niners offense as well. I mean, we talked 441 00:20:26,760 --> 00:20:29,360 Speaker 3: about him before, but you know, Jimmy g is banged up, 442 00:20:29,520 --> 00:20:30,879 Speaker 3: McCaffrey's dealing with the knee. 443 00:20:30,880 --> 00:20:33,560 Speaker 2: Deepo had the hamstring, now he's got a quad contusion. 444 00:20:34,040 --> 00:20:37,120 Speaker 3: A little bit concerned there against the Miami defense, which 445 00:20:37,160 --> 00:20:39,760 Speaker 3: is you know, perfectly possible, and still I think has 446 00:20:39,800 --> 00:20:42,960 Speaker 3: a ceiling to get to when Zabi and Howard starts 447 00:20:42,960 --> 00:20:44,919 Speaker 3: playing better. So I just look at all of this, 448 00:20:44,960 --> 00:20:47,320 Speaker 3: look at all the injury uncertainty, and I think that 449 00:20:47,400 --> 00:20:50,200 Speaker 3: the under is the play here. I'm very concerned about 450 00:20:50,240 --> 00:20:54,080 Speaker 3: Miami's ability to score against the San Francisco defense without 451 00:20:54,119 --> 00:20:55,680 Speaker 3: Toront Armstead. 452 00:20:55,920 --> 00:20:59,800 Speaker 1: Yeah, and I mean, as you mentioned, Tron Arms said, right, 453 00:21:00,040 --> 00:21:02,760 Speaker 1: multiple injuries that the toe, which has been lingering all season, 454 00:21:02,880 --> 00:21:05,440 Speaker 1: and then the peck, which you know was thrown into 455 00:21:05,480 --> 00:21:09,080 Speaker 1: the mix recently. And then Austin Jackson, the right tackle. 456 00:21:10,040 --> 00:21:12,840 Speaker 1: You know, he's out too, or I mean it looks 457 00:21:12,880 --> 00:21:14,879 Speaker 1: like he could be out again. Didn't practice with the 458 00:21:14,920 --> 00:21:18,760 Speaker 1: ankle injury on Wednesday, So they could be missing both 459 00:21:18,920 --> 00:21:22,520 Speaker 1: starting tackles, which that's that's bad enough. And then on 460 00:21:22,560 --> 00:21:25,520 Speaker 1: the other side for the forty nine ers, they could 461 00:21:25,520 --> 00:21:28,840 Speaker 1: also be without guard Spencer Buford in addition to all 462 00:21:28,840 --> 00:21:31,320 Speaker 1: of the other issues that they're dealing with on offense. 463 00:21:31,440 --> 00:21:34,080 Speaker 1: So I can yeah, I can see it. You know, 464 00:21:34,359 --> 00:21:38,760 Speaker 1: I think people would expect an offensive matchup given you know, 465 00:21:38,880 --> 00:21:42,320 Speaker 1: the the intricacies of the Shanahan offense and what they 466 00:21:42,359 --> 00:21:45,000 Speaker 1: can do when they are fully healthy, and then given 467 00:21:45,080 --> 00:21:47,679 Speaker 1: everything that we've seen out of the Miami offense. But 468 00:21:47,880 --> 00:21:50,480 Speaker 1: you know, these are teams that are injured offensively and 469 00:21:50,600 --> 00:21:53,080 Speaker 1: two coaches who do know each other really well, and 470 00:21:53,160 --> 00:21:56,440 Speaker 1: I think that familiarity can also lend towards a lower 471 00:21:56,440 --> 00:21:58,840 Speaker 1: score scoring game. So yeah, I can see it. 472 00:21:59,520 --> 00:22:02,000 Speaker 3: Yeah, I think like it was a little bit kind 473 00:22:02,000 --> 00:22:05,200 Speaker 3: of lost in the wash that the Niner scored thirteen 474 00:22:05,240 --> 00:22:07,679 Speaker 3: points against the Saints against the Saints defense that is 475 00:22:07,680 --> 00:22:10,000 Speaker 3: getting better, certainly and was elite last year. 476 00:22:10,040 --> 00:22:12,040 Speaker 2: But I mean, with the level of talent, they should 477 00:22:12,040 --> 00:22:15,320 Speaker 2: be scoring more than thirteen points against the Saints. Certainly. 478 00:22:15,359 --> 00:22:18,120 Speaker 3: I think that with the injuries building up, that that 479 00:22:18,160 --> 00:22:20,199 Speaker 3: offense isn't going to be what it will be at 480 00:22:20,200 --> 00:22:22,600 Speaker 3: the end of the season. And I think that if 481 00:22:22,640 --> 00:22:24,680 Speaker 3: you're looking at like futures and the long player, I 482 00:22:24,680 --> 00:22:27,720 Speaker 3: think that Miami with Armstead there, like. 483 00:22:27,680 --> 00:22:29,119 Speaker 2: That team can win the Super Bowl. 484 00:22:29,160 --> 00:22:31,720 Speaker 3: I think they have that much talent, particularly on offense, 485 00:22:31,800 --> 00:22:34,400 Speaker 3: that they would be the team in the AFC most 486 00:22:34,560 --> 00:22:37,400 Speaker 3: likely to shake up the Bills or the Chiefs. I'd 487 00:22:37,440 --> 00:22:40,280 Speaker 3: probably with this Armstead injury, I'd stay away from that 488 00:22:40,480 --> 00:22:43,160 Speaker 3: until you get through the Bills game, which I think 489 00:22:43,160 --> 00:22:45,639 Speaker 3: that they're going to lose now without Armstead and playing 490 00:22:45,680 --> 00:22:48,359 Speaker 3: in Buffalo. But you know, if Miami drift out without 491 00:22:48,440 --> 00:22:51,880 Speaker 3: Armstead to plus twelve hundred plus thirteen hundred to win 492 00:22:51,920 --> 00:22:53,920 Speaker 3: the AFC, then I think that's definitely a bet. I 493 00:22:53,960 --> 00:22:56,080 Speaker 3: think this team has a lot of ceiling the rest. 494 00:22:55,960 --> 00:22:56,440 Speaker 2: Of the wife. 495 00:22:57,080 --> 00:22:59,680 Speaker 1: Yeah, so this is kind of correlated with the idea 496 00:22:59,720 --> 00:23:02,919 Speaker 1: of my Miami winning the AFC, and that's like a 497 00:23:02,960 --> 00:23:05,680 Speaker 1: separate thing from Miami finishing as the number one seed. 498 00:23:05,720 --> 00:23:10,000 Speaker 1: But you know, there's this idea that if things break 499 00:23:10,080 --> 00:23:14,040 Speaker 1: right for Miami, voters might have a little bit of 500 00:23:14,080 --> 00:23:19,640 Speaker 1: Mahomes fatigue, maybe t would win the MVP. I'm not there. 501 00:23:19,920 --> 00:23:24,240 Speaker 1: I like I think if Miami actually somehow gets the 502 00:23:24,359 --> 00:23:27,000 Speaker 1: number one seed, I don't think Tua would get the 503 00:23:27,040 --> 00:23:30,520 Speaker 1: full credit that another quarterback might get if his team 504 00:23:30,560 --> 00:23:32,400 Speaker 1: were the number one seed. I think you would see 505 00:23:32,440 --> 00:23:35,320 Speaker 1: Mike McDaniel as Coach of the Year, and that is 506 00:23:35,359 --> 00:23:39,400 Speaker 1: how they would maybe honor what the Dolphins had achieved, 507 00:23:39,400 --> 00:23:42,119 Speaker 1: and maybe you see Tyreek Hill get Offensive Player of 508 00:23:42,200 --> 00:23:44,560 Speaker 1: the Year. But I don't think we would actually see 509 00:23:44,560 --> 00:23:47,679 Speaker 1: Tua get the MVP. But do you have any thoughts 510 00:23:47,720 --> 00:23:50,880 Speaker 1: on the MVP market and Tua as a potential candidate. 511 00:23:51,520 --> 00:23:53,840 Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't, just too a missing those two and 512 00:23:53,880 --> 00:23:56,920 Speaker 3: a half games. Basically, I just thought I think that's 513 00:23:56,920 --> 00:24:00,000 Speaker 3: insurmountable in terms of his counting stats versus Mahomes. 514 00:24:00,240 --> 00:24:01,119 Speaker 2: Mahomes is going to have a. 515 00:24:01,119 --> 00:24:03,240 Speaker 3: Thousand more passing yards than Tour and he's gonna have 516 00:24:03,280 --> 00:24:05,679 Speaker 3: a lot more passing touchdowns as well, So. 517 00:24:05,960 --> 00:24:07,120 Speaker 2: I think Mahomes is a bet. 518 00:24:07,160 --> 00:24:09,719 Speaker 3: At his current price, to be honest, he's around minus 519 00:24:09,720 --> 00:24:11,359 Speaker 3: one fifty in the market. I think it would be 520 00:24:11,359 --> 00:24:14,199 Speaker 3: more like minus two fifty. I think if Mahomes, if 521 00:24:14,240 --> 00:24:17,680 Speaker 3: Mahomes gets the one seed, which is clearly a favorite, 522 00:24:17,920 --> 00:24:21,640 Speaker 3: then that basically knocks out Tour, It knocks out Josh Allen, 523 00:24:21,720 --> 00:24:24,600 Speaker 3: knocks out Lamar, Joe Burrow, all of these guys. I 524 00:24:24,640 --> 00:24:27,840 Speaker 3: think the most realistic candidate to beat Mahomes is Jalen Hurts, 525 00:24:27,840 --> 00:24:30,919 Speaker 3: and that's a pretty uninspiring dark horse, to be honest, 526 00:24:30,960 --> 00:24:33,440 Speaker 3: because yes, you look at all the numbers and the 527 00:24:33,560 --> 00:24:38,360 Speaker 3: most deserving candidate wins MVP. But I think voters will 528 00:24:38,359 --> 00:24:41,040 Speaker 3: have the same issue I have, where it's like you're 529 00:24:41,080 --> 00:24:44,160 Speaker 3: going to vote for Jalen Hurts MVP over Patrick Mahomes 530 00:24:44,200 --> 00:24:46,560 Speaker 3: when you clearly know that Mahomes is better and he 531 00:24:46,600 --> 00:24:49,280 Speaker 3: has the narrative without Tyreek Hill, and he's going to 532 00:24:49,320 --> 00:24:51,119 Speaker 3: have like he's going to flirt with breaking the all 533 00:24:51,200 --> 00:24:54,520 Speaker 3: time passing yards records. So I think Mahomes, barring a 534 00:24:54,520 --> 00:24:57,320 Speaker 3: complete catastrophe, is going to win MVP, and he would 535 00:24:57,320 --> 00:24:59,520 Speaker 3: be my bet in the market. I would have Hurts 536 00:24:59,520 --> 00:25:02,480 Speaker 3: the second just because he Mico sixteen and one and 537 00:25:02,560 --> 00:25:04,520 Speaker 3: then two or in Allen would be kind of tought 538 00:25:04,560 --> 00:25:04,960 Speaker 3: to third. 539 00:25:05,680 --> 00:25:08,720 Speaker 1: Yeah, I hear you there, all right. So another game 540 00:25:08,840 --> 00:25:12,040 Speaker 1: that I want to look at here is let me 541 00:25:12,040 --> 00:25:17,040 Speaker 1: get to it Raiders hosting the Chargers Raiders plus one 542 00:25:17,040 --> 00:25:19,040 Speaker 1: and a half. And by the way, another plug coming 543 00:25:19,080 --> 00:25:21,600 Speaker 1: up or speaking of the Raiders, the moment has come. 544 00:25:21,640 --> 00:25:24,480 Speaker 1: For weeks I've been talking about the free signed Josh 545 00:25:24,560 --> 00:25:27,280 Speaker 1: Jacobs Raiders jersey curtsey from our friends at Pristine Auction, 546 00:25:27,720 --> 00:25:29,840 Speaker 1: and what a time to give it away right after 547 00:25:29,920 --> 00:25:32,199 Speaker 1: last week he went off dominated on the ground and 548 00:25:32,240 --> 00:25:34,680 Speaker 1: totally trounced my Dynast team of record. By the way, 549 00:25:35,160 --> 00:25:37,360 Speaker 1: maximill Pain, I couldn't have been more wrong about Josh 550 00:25:37,440 --> 00:25:39,679 Speaker 1: Jacobs entering the season and I have definitely paid the 551 00:25:39,680 --> 00:25:41,960 Speaker 1: price for it. But you will not have to pay 552 00:25:42,040 --> 00:25:44,800 Speaker 1: for this free signed Josh Jacobs jersey. And by you 553 00:25:44,920 --> 00:25:47,960 Speaker 1: I mean user. This is such a mouthful O H 554 00:25:48,320 --> 00:25:52,280 Speaker 1: two and U five FD five you you are the 555 00:25:52,280 --> 00:25:54,159 Speaker 1: winner of the jersey. Please get in touch with our 556 00:25:54,200 --> 00:25:58,560 Speaker 1: customer support agents at mail bog mail bog mail Bag 557 00:25:58,640 --> 00:26:02,440 Speaker 1: at fantasypros dot com with your mailing address and your 558 00:26:02,520 --> 00:26:04,919 Speaker 1: proof of subscription to the Fantasy Pro channel, and we 559 00:26:04,960 --> 00:26:06,800 Speaker 1: will hook you up with that. Jersey will ship it 560 00:26:06,840 --> 00:26:10,560 Speaker 1: to you again. The winner is USERH two in you 561 00:26:11,200 --> 00:26:15,359 Speaker 1: five FD five U. Congratulations to you and congratulations to 562 00:26:15,400 --> 00:26:17,399 Speaker 1: me on getting through that and now being able to 563 00:26:17,440 --> 00:26:20,760 Speaker 1: talk about this game. Raiders plus one and a half 564 00:26:21,160 --> 00:26:24,120 Speaker 1: hosting the Chargers. Jay. There was a point not all 565 00:26:24,160 --> 00:26:27,159 Speaker 1: that long ago where I swore off betting on the 566 00:26:27,280 --> 00:26:31,119 Speaker 1: Raiders at any point in the future. I believe that 567 00:26:31,280 --> 00:26:34,040 Speaker 1: was when they failed to cover against the Jeff Saturday 568 00:26:34,119 --> 00:26:38,000 Speaker 1: led Colts, and I just hated myself for having bet 569 00:26:38,040 --> 00:26:40,080 Speaker 1: on the Raiders. Of course, now I'm gonna hate myself 570 00:26:40,080 --> 00:26:42,280 Speaker 1: because I'm doing it again. I'm betting on the Raiders 571 00:26:42,280 --> 00:26:45,200 Speaker 1: at plus one and a half going against this Chargers team, 572 00:26:45,240 --> 00:26:48,600 Speaker 1: and the Chargers they're better, I don't think there's any 573 00:26:48,680 --> 00:26:51,960 Speaker 1: question about that. But this is a something of a 574 00:26:52,080 --> 00:26:55,399 Speaker 1: matchup specific bet. You know, you have world beating running 575 00:26:55,400 --> 00:26:57,840 Speaker 1: back Josh Jacobs. He's dealing with a calf injury, but 576 00:26:57,960 --> 00:27:00,359 Speaker 1: he had the same injury last week, played through it 577 00:27:00,440 --> 00:27:03,040 Speaker 1: totally dominated He was able to open this week with 578 00:27:03,080 --> 00:27:05,439 Speaker 1: a limited practice on Wednesday, so I expect him to 579 00:27:05,480 --> 00:27:07,960 Speaker 1: play on Sunday, and I think that's the difference in 580 00:27:08,000 --> 00:27:10,040 Speaker 1: this game. The Raiders have a top twelve offense, a 581 00:27:10,119 --> 00:27:13,080 Speaker 1: top six rush attack. They have a massive edge against 582 00:27:13,080 --> 00:27:16,640 Speaker 1: the Chargers defense, which is horrifically vulnerable against the run, 583 00:27:16,960 --> 00:27:19,879 Speaker 1: so much so that it actually does impact their overall 584 00:27:19,920 --> 00:27:23,000 Speaker 1: performance in yards per play, in points per game, and 585 00:27:23,119 --> 00:27:25,760 Speaker 1: on the opposite side of the ball, the Chargers offense, 586 00:27:26,119 --> 00:27:29,240 Speaker 1: in theory, it should have a large advantage against the 587 00:27:29,280 --> 00:27:33,080 Speaker 1: Raiders defense, which in my unit power rankings is dead 588 00:27:33,119 --> 00:27:35,760 Speaker 1: last in secondary. Like the number thirty two secondary in 589 00:27:35,760 --> 00:27:39,080 Speaker 1: the league. This Raiders secondary is atrocious. That said, I'm 590 00:27:39,119 --> 00:27:43,159 Speaker 1: skeptical that the Chargers actually will exploit that matchup in 591 00:27:43,240 --> 00:27:46,760 Speaker 1: a maximum way. They have a dink and dunk type 592 00:27:46,760 --> 00:27:49,800 Speaker 1: of pass offense, and they're probably not gonna have Mike Williams, 593 00:27:49,840 --> 00:27:52,440 Speaker 1: who is you know, more of their downfield threat, who's 594 00:27:52,480 --> 00:27:55,280 Speaker 1: played just six naps since Week eight, and so with 595 00:27:55,359 --> 00:27:58,240 Speaker 1: the running dominance, I think the Raiders have the largest 596 00:27:58,359 --> 00:28:01,360 Speaker 1: edge in this matchup plus one and a half. At home, 597 00:28:01,400 --> 00:28:05,399 Speaker 1: I actually have this Raiders minus one, not you know, 598 00:28:05,440 --> 00:28:08,639 Speaker 1: a massive defense going a massive difference going through zero, 599 00:28:08,720 --> 00:28:10,840 Speaker 1: but a little bit of a difference there, so plus 600 00:28:10,880 --> 00:28:13,479 Speaker 1: one versus the minus one, and I gotta say, like 601 00:28:13,520 --> 00:28:17,560 Speaker 1: this is it's a year for underdogs. Derek Carr fifty one, 602 00:28:17,680 --> 00:28:20,760 Speaker 1: forty two and one against the spread. Historically as an underdog, 603 00:28:21,160 --> 00:28:25,159 Speaker 1: underdogs this year ninety nine, seventy five and four against 604 00:28:25,160 --> 00:28:27,920 Speaker 1: the spread, and in division underdogs this year are thirty 605 00:28:27,960 --> 00:28:30,560 Speaker 1: three and twenty against the spread. So I am on 606 00:28:30,600 --> 00:28:32,480 Speaker 1: the Raiders in this spot. It's just sort of a 607 00:28:32,760 --> 00:28:35,840 Speaker 1: you know, hold my nose and and bet it and 608 00:28:35,960 --> 00:28:38,160 Speaker 1: don't watch the game and just hope that it turns 609 00:28:38,160 --> 00:28:40,280 Speaker 1: out in my favor at the end. But Jay, I 610 00:28:40,320 --> 00:28:41,520 Speaker 1: don't know, do you have any opinions on this? 611 00:28:42,200 --> 00:28:45,280 Speaker 3: Yeah, this feels like a good value bet that absolutely 612 00:28:45,320 --> 00:28:47,440 Speaker 3: is going to lose. Right, it just feels like it. 613 00:28:47,640 --> 00:28:49,240 Speaker 2: To bet and it has to lose. 614 00:28:49,280 --> 00:28:51,760 Speaker 3: That just out is I mean, I think the Right 615 00:28:51,880 --> 00:28:55,680 Speaker 3: is one of the most underrated tams relative to public perception, 616 00:28:55,800 --> 00:28:58,200 Speaker 3: like this isn't a bad team and the market for 617 00:28:58,320 --> 00:29:01,200 Speaker 3: the more spot has valued them this season. There have 618 00:29:01,280 --> 00:29:03,680 Speaker 3: been some I think some weird lines where people have 619 00:29:03,720 --> 00:29:05,440 Speaker 3: been like, why are the Raiders two and a half 620 00:29:05,480 --> 00:29:08,440 Speaker 3: point favorites in Tennessee. But the market has always believed 621 00:29:08,440 --> 00:29:09,880 Speaker 3: in the Raiders, and I think it's because of the 622 00:29:09,920 --> 00:29:12,920 Speaker 3: talent level in that you know, the passing offense, Derek 623 00:29:12,960 --> 00:29:15,320 Speaker 3: Carr is playing better, Devonte Adams is the top four 624 00:29:15,360 --> 00:29:17,719 Speaker 3: wide receiver in the game, and Josh Jacobs has been 625 00:29:17,720 --> 00:29:20,880 Speaker 3: the best running back in football so far. So I 626 00:29:20,880 --> 00:29:23,200 Speaker 3: think the offense clearly has the talent. It's just to 627 00:29:23,280 --> 00:29:26,200 Speaker 3: your point, the past defense is just not salvagible, like 628 00:29:26,240 --> 00:29:27,840 Speaker 3: they're never going to be able to defend the pass. 629 00:29:28,120 --> 00:29:29,360 Speaker 2: They don't have the personnel. 630 00:29:29,920 --> 00:29:33,040 Speaker 3: Max Crosby it's him and no one else really, and 631 00:29:33,080 --> 00:29:35,160 Speaker 3: he gives you a little bit of upside and variance 632 00:29:35,200 --> 00:29:38,040 Speaker 3: on third down being one of the five best defensive 633 00:29:38,080 --> 00:29:40,920 Speaker 3: players in football. Maybe he's that good and certainly the 634 00:29:40,960 --> 00:29:44,080 Speaker 3: most underrated for my money. But yeah, I think the 635 00:29:44,120 --> 00:29:46,360 Speaker 3: best thing that the Raiders have going for them is 636 00:29:46,560 --> 00:29:50,000 Speaker 3: the Chargers' injury report is not encouraging for Los Angeles, 637 00:29:50,040 --> 00:29:54,760 Speaker 3: where they've got Derwin James, he didn't practice yesterday, Bryce 638 00:29:54,800 --> 00:29:58,360 Speaker 3: Callahan didn't practice, Trey Pipkins didn't practice, Khali Ma did 639 00:29:58,360 --> 00:29:58,800 Speaker 3: in practice. 640 00:29:58,800 --> 00:29:59,600 Speaker 2: That's just the rest day. 641 00:29:59,640 --> 00:30:02,800 Speaker 3: But they are banged up Mike Williams also he didn't practice. 642 00:30:02,840 --> 00:30:05,680 Speaker 3: And to your point about the dink and dunk, I 643 00:30:05,720 --> 00:30:08,320 Speaker 3: interviewed Austin Ekeler about this a few weeks ago, and 644 00:30:08,320 --> 00:30:10,280 Speaker 3: I was like, well, you've got and it's not like 645 00:30:10,320 --> 00:30:13,080 Speaker 3: a unique question, but you've got Justin Herbert in his arm, 646 00:30:13,160 --> 00:30:15,640 Speaker 3: like why don't you guys throw deeper more often? And 647 00:30:15,680 --> 00:30:17,760 Speaker 3: he's like, yeah, we don't want to dink and dunk, 648 00:30:17,920 --> 00:30:20,400 Speaker 3: but we have to because there's over sean slater and 649 00:30:20,400 --> 00:30:22,320 Speaker 3: our wide receivers have banged up all the time, and 650 00:30:22,360 --> 00:30:24,080 Speaker 3: so this is just kind of what our offense has 651 00:30:24,120 --> 00:30:26,160 Speaker 3: to be until we can get to that point. So 652 00:30:26,560 --> 00:30:28,640 Speaker 3: that point probably isn't going to be this week because 653 00:30:28,680 --> 00:30:31,240 Speaker 3: they're banged up. So yeah, I would be taking the 654 00:30:31,320 --> 00:30:33,440 Speaker 3: Raiders at the current price. But because they're the Raiders, 655 00:30:33,520 --> 00:30:34,800 Speaker 3: you just expected to lose. 656 00:30:35,240 --> 00:30:37,800 Speaker 1: Yeah, that's fair to your point about being a value 657 00:30:37,840 --> 00:30:39,960 Speaker 1: bet that's just destined to lose. I bet this first 658 00:30:39,960 --> 00:30:41,880 Speaker 1: shit two and a half. So given that I had 659 00:30:42,120 --> 00:30:44,120 Speaker 1: the closing line value on top of that, yeah, I 660 00:30:44,160 --> 00:30:49,000 Speaker 1: just feel like I'm already looking at a loser here. Yes, Okay, 661 00:30:49,080 --> 00:30:52,400 Speaker 1: so final game here for us to talk about Green Bay, 662 00:30:52,480 --> 00:30:54,800 Speaker 1: and all of this is under the assumption that Aaron 663 00:30:54,880 --> 00:30:57,280 Speaker 1: Rodgers is playing. On the Pat McAfee show, he said 664 00:30:57,320 --> 00:31:00,240 Speaker 1: he expects to play. The head coaches said they banked 665 00:31:00,320 --> 00:31:02,520 Speaker 1: Rogers to play. So I'm assuming even with the thumb, 666 00:31:02,800 --> 00:31:06,120 Speaker 1: the broken thumb, even with the ribs injury, assuming that 667 00:31:06,200 --> 00:31:09,600 Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers is playing here, going against the Bears, who 668 00:31:10,040 --> 00:31:14,000 Speaker 1: potentially know justin fields. So you know, in that regard 669 00:31:14,200 --> 00:31:19,160 Speaker 1: large edge for Aaron Rodgers, who historically has absolutely owned 670 00:31:19,280 --> 00:31:22,680 Speaker 1: the Bears. I mean he's he's told them to their 671 00:31:22,720 --> 00:31:25,600 Speaker 1: face that he owns them. You are looking at the 672 00:31:25,680 --> 00:31:28,600 Speaker 1: Green Bay team total here of twenty four and a half. 673 00:31:29,440 --> 00:31:31,200 Speaker 1: I like it. I like it. What do you see here? 674 00:31:31,760 --> 00:31:31,960 Speaker 2: Yeah? 675 00:31:32,000 --> 00:31:35,000 Speaker 3: I just think that this Bears pass defenses might be 676 00:31:35,040 --> 00:31:38,600 Speaker 3: an outlier level of bad after what Mike White did 677 00:31:38,640 --> 00:31:41,600 Speaker 3: to them last Sunday, putting up thirty one on them 678 00:31:41,680 --> 00:31:44,480 Speaker 3: in the rain his first game starting for the season, 679 00:31:44,920 --> 00:31:48,360 Speaker 3: after how badly the had Zach Wilson and the Jets 680 00:31:48,360 --> 00:31:50,360 Speaker 3: passing game, an entire offense has struggled. 681 00:31:50,560 --> 00:31:52,040 Speaker 2: I think this is right now. 682 00:31:52,160 --> 00:31:54,800 Speaker 3: It was already a bad pass defense, and now you're 683 00:31:54,840 --> 00:31:58,840 Speaker 3: without Eddie Jackson, Jaquon Briskett in practice yesterday still got 684 00:31:58,880 --> 00:31:59,560 Speaker 3: the concussion. 685 00:31:59,640 --> 00:32:02,000 Speaker 2: Kyler Gordon as well, he didn't practice. 686 00:32:02,400 --> 00:32:04,680 Speaker 3: So I just think that this Bears defense is just 687 00:32:05,080 --> 00:32:07,360 Speaker 3: it's just not tenable at the moment. I think the 688 00:32:07,360 --> 00:32:11,040 Speaker 3: green Bay offense is also a little bit underrated, because yes, 689 00:32:11,080 --> 00:32:13,240 Speaker 3: they have struggled a little bit to put up points, 690 00:32:13,240 --> 00:32:16,320 Speaker 3: but the problem with Green Bay has been their defense. Offensively, 691 00:32:16,360 --> 00:32:19,440 Speaker 3: they've been efficient enough. Rodgers hasn't been to the m 692 00:32:19,560 --> 00:32:21,800 Speaker 3: VP level, clearly, but Rogers has been fine. He's been 693 00:32:21,800 --> 00:32:25,400 Speaker 3: playing an above average quarterback level. David Baktieri's back and 694 00:32:25,440 --> 00:32:28,440 Speaker 3: he's David Bactieri again after a bit of a slow start. 695 00:32:28,760 --> 00:32:32,280 Speaker 3: Christian Watson's emergence now gives them a legitimate threat to 696 00:32:32,320 --> 00:32:35,000 Speaker 3: go opposite Alan Lazard, who's like the poster boy for 697 00:32:35,520 --> 00:32:39,000 Speaker 3: sneaky good wide receiver who's perfectly solid. So I just 698 00:32:39,040 --> 00:32:42,440 Speaker 3: think that with Rogers playing, which we fully expect him to, 699 00:32:43,280 --> 00:32:46,680 Speaker 3: that this Green Bay offense in conditions in Chicago, like 700 00:32:46,720 --> 00:32:49,200 Speaker 3: it's going to be cold, but not expecting rain at 701 00:32:49,200 --> 00:32:53,000 Speaker 3: this point, So I think that the green Bay offense 702 00:32:53,000 --> 00:32:55,200 Speaker 3: should be able to get over twenty four and a half. 703 00:32:55,840 --> 00:32:59,040 Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely love it. I'm with you on this bet 704 00:32:59,560 --> 00:33:02,160 Speaker 1: all right, Jay, awesome to have you on the show. 705 00:33:02,200 --> 00:33:04,320 Speaker 1: Thanks so much. Tell people where to follow you on 706 00:33:04,360 --> 00:33:06,560 Speaker 1: social and where to find your work. Anything you want 707 00:33:06,560 --> 00:33:06,960 Speaker 1: to plug. 708 00:33:07,400 --> 00:33:09,720 Speaker 3: Yeah, so you can follow me at Croucher Jay Day 709 00:33:09,960 --> 00:33:12,680 Speaker 3: on Twitter, on Instagram. I do, as you mentioned, the 710 00:33:12,680 --> 00:33:16,560 Speaker 3: Bety Edge podcast with the Great Whale Kappa Drew Dinsick 711 00:33:17,400 --> 00:33:19,960 Speaker 3: basically every day of the week except for Thursday. I 712 00:33:20,040 --> 00:33:23,560 Speaker 3: also co host the Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew 713 00:33:23,600 --> 00:33:26,600 Speaker 3: Berry six days a week Monday to Friday at noon 714 00:33:26,680 --> 00:33:30,560 Speaker 3: on Peacock and then Sunday at eleven am Easton and 715 00:33:30,600 --> 00:33:33,960 Speaker 3: then the second Hour on Sunday runs on CNBC. So yeah, 716 00:33:34,000 --> 00:33:35,800 Speaker 3: a lot of places to find me for better or 717 00:33:35,800 --> 00:33:36,880 Speaker 3: worse talking football. 718 00:33:37,280 --> 00:33:40,240 Speaker 1: All right, fantastic. He is Jay Croucher. I'm Matthew Freedman, 719 00:33:40,320 --> 00:33:42,880 Speaker 1: Matt f the Oracle. Check out Betting Pros and Fantasy 720 00:33:42,920 --> 00:33:46,200 Speaker 1: Pros for all my work best bets, player props, Fantasy Favorites, 721 00:33:46,240 --> 00:33:49,120 Speaker 1: player projections and rankings, and more. If you'd like the show, 722 00:33:49,160 --> 00:33:51,560 Speaker 1: please rate and review on your favorite podcast app That 723 00:33:51,680 --> 00:33:53,680 Speaker 1: is going to do it. For the week thirteen Best 724 00:33:53,720 --> 00:33:56,640 Speaker 1: Bets edition of the Betting Pros Pod thanks for tuning in, 725 00:33:56,760 --> 00:34:02,360 Speaker 1: good luck, and see you next episode. Keep