Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the.
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Daybacurate podcast, available every morning on Apple, Spotify or
Speaker 2: wherever you listen. It's Thursday, the twelfth of June in London.
Speaker 2: I'm Caroline Hepkip.
Speaker 1: And I'm Stephen Carroll. Coming up today.
Speaker 3: Exclusive Bloomberg reporting reveals a jump in the number of
Speaker 3: business leaders leaving the UK in the past year.
Speaker 2: Rachel Reeves pumps billions into areas outside London in a
Speaker 2: bid to counter the electoral threat Reform UK poses to
Speaker 2: Labour's traditional heartlands.
Speaker 3: Plus looking beyond the ninety day pause, President Trump plans
Speaker 3: to send letters to countries on the next fortnight, setting
Speaker 3: his unilateral Tara frights.
Speaker 2: Let's start with a roundup of our top stories.
Speaker 3: There are fresh signs the UK could be on course
Speaker 3: for the biggest exodus of wealth in the country's recent history.
Speaker 3: At Bloomberg, analysis of five million company filings shows a
Speaker 3: spike in business leaders leaving more than four thousand and four.
Speaker 3: Andrew disclosed an overseas move in the last year, up
Speaker 3: around twenty percent on previous years.
Speaker 1: Boomberg James Wilcock has more.
Speaker 4: The UK government is besting tax changes for non doms
Speaker 4: will bring in thirty three billion pounds in extra revenue,
Speaker 4: but that assumption is based on the vast majority staying.
Speaker 4: Bloomberg's latest data suggests exits are on the rise. Charlie
Speaker 4: Sosna heads that Michigan Private's wealth and tax teams. He
Speaker 4: told us last month, the wealthy are leaving.
Speaker 1: Pretty safe to say.
Speaker 4: It's an increasing percentage every day that goes by, and
Speaker 4: every year that goes by, and I absolutely wouldn't be
Speaker 4: surprised if it's twenty five percent plus heading into the
Speaker 4: forty percent mark. Sozna is one of more than a
Speaker 4: dozen lawyers and other advisors to the ultra rich who
Speaker 4: told Bloomberg between fifteen percent to two thirds of their
Speaker 4: non dom clients are out or making plans to depart
Speaker 4: the UK. The individuals who've already exited command or share
Speaker 4: part of Fortune's totaling at least one hundred and ten
Speaker 4: billion dollars. That's according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. The
Speaker 4: full extent of the moves won't be known for at
Speaker 4: least a year when official tax sat is published in London.
Speaker 1: James Wilcock, Bloomberg.
Speaker 2: Radio the UK government is investing billions of pounds meanwhile
Speaker 2: outside of London in a bid to drive growth and
Speaker 2: also to win back popularity. The Chancellor announced one hundred
Speaker 2: and thirteen billion pounds worth of infrastructure investment yesterday, much
Speaker 2: of it outside of the Capitol. Rachel Reeves says that
Speaker 2: voters now need to feel the benefit of Labour's choices
Speaker 2: on tax and spending policy.
Speaker 5: This government's task and the purpose of this spending review
Speaker 5: is to change that, to ensure that renewal is felt
Speaker 5: in people's everyday lives, in their jobs and on their
Speaker 5: high streets.
Speaker 2: Chancellor Rachel Reeves also repeatedly attacked to the far smaller
Speaker 2: Reformed UK Party during her announcement. The unusual prominence is
Speaker 2: a sign of how concerned the government is about the
Speaker 2: new challenger.
Speaker 3: US President Donald Trump says he's planning to send letters
Speaker 3: to trading partners within the next two weeks to set
Speaker 3: unilateral tariff freights. That move comes ahead of a July
Speaker 3: ninth deadline to reimpose higher duties on dozens of economies
Speaker 3: once the current ninety day pause expires. So far, the
Speaker 3: White House has only reached a yet to be implemented
Speaker 3: trade framework with the UK and a tariff truce with China.
Speaker 3: Speaking to reporters yesterday, President Trump had this to say.
Speaker 6: We're rocket in terms of deals. Now at a certain point,
Speaker 6: we're just going to send letters out. And I think
Speaker 6: you understand that saying this is the deal. You can
Speaker 6: take it or you can leave it. You don't have
Speaker 6: to use it. You don't have to shop in the
Speaker 6: United States, as I say.
Speaker 3: Trump was speaking as new data showed that US tariff
Speaker 3: revenue hit a fresh record last month of twenty three
Speaker 3: billion dollars. Figure marks a two hundred and seventy percent
Speaker 3: increase in the same month a year earlier. May's figer
Speaker 3: helped to reduce the US fiscal deficit for the month
Speaker 3: by seventeen percent to three hundred and sixteen billion dollars. However,
Speaker 3: Treasury Secretaries and says he still expects the deficit for
Speaker 3: the year to be between six point five and six
Speaker 3: point seven percent of GDP.
Speaker 7: Well.
Speaker 2: The latest news on tariffs comes as the US Commerce
Speaker 2: Secretary Howard Lutnik warned that the EU is likely to
Speaker 2: be among the last trade deals that the US complete.
Speaker 2: Speaking to CNBC, Lutnick said, I'm optimistic that we can
Speaker 2: get there with Europe, but Europe will be probably the
Speaker 2: very very end. Those comments come after European Union sources
Speaker 2: that told Bloomberg that they believe trade negotiations with the
Speaker 2: US will extend beyond President Trump's July ninth deadline. Lutnik
Speaker 2: added that he expects to see deals with other countries
Speaker 2: to quote start coming next week and the week after
Speaker 2: and the week after.
Speaker 3: The United States has ordered some staff to leave its
Speaker 3: embassy in Baghdad and authorized families of military service members
Speaker 3: to leave the region. Officials say the decision is due
Speaker 3: to heighten security risks after a round threatens to strike
Speaker 3: American bases if it is attacked over its nuclear program.
Speaker 3: The UK Navy also issued a rare warning yesterday stating
Speaker 3: that increased tensions in the Middle East could affect shipping,
Speaker 3: including through the Strait of Hormuz. Hormus is the world's
Speaker 3: most important oil choke point, and Aran has frequently threatened
Speaker 3: to close US during times of geopolitical strife. However, it's
Speaker 3: never followed through on those threats.
Speaker 2: Now, the Pentagon is reviewing a pact to develop nuclear
Speaker 2: powered submarines with Australia and the UK.
Speaker 1: Dubbed ORCUS.
Speaker 2: The twenty twenty one Biden era agreement was part of
Speaker 2: a pivot by Washington and London to strengthen their presence
Speaker 2: in the Indo Pacific region given China's military growth. According
Speaker 2: to a statement, the Pentagon is now considering whether that
Speaker 2: pact is quote aligned with the President's America First Agenda.
Speaker 2: Australian Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister Richard Males says
Speaker 2: his country is open to discussion with the US.
Speaker 8: We understand America seeking more from its friends and allies
Speaker 8: around the world.
Speaker 1: The answer is that as a conversation.
Speaker 8: We are very happy to engage in and we will
Speaker 8: and we obviously have engaged in a historic increase in
Speaker 8: our own defense spending to this point in time, but
Speaker 8: we will continue to have that conversation with the United States.
Speaker 2: Australian Defense Minister Richard Males speaking that any major revisions
Speaker 2: or even scrapping of the Orcus Pact would be a
Speaker 2: major blow to Australia's defense sector, which has already begun
Speaker 2: preparations for the new submarines.
Speaker 3: Northern Ireland has seen a third night of clashes between
Speaker 3: rioters and police and violence that's been described by officials
Speaker 3: has racially motivated. The unrest began after alleged sexual assault
Speaker 3: in Ballymena, County Antrum, but a sinse spread to other areas.
Speaker 3: In the town of lar In, a leisure center which
Speaker 3: was providing emergency accommodation to families displaced by the violence,
Speaker 3: was set on fire by master attackers. Mayor of Mid
Speaker 3: and East Antrum, Jack Minford, says there's growing fear in
Speaker 3: the community.
Speaker 9: I spoke to local people in there who are very scared.
Speaker 9: People are labeling their host that are in Filipino and
Speaker 9: British or whatever. That should not happen in this day
Speaker 9: and age that people have to label their house. But
Speaker 9: there were a lot of probleties damaged randomly.
Speaker 1: Jack Minford speaking there.
Speaker 3: During the first two nights of unrest, thirty two police
Speaker 3: officers were injured and six people arrested. Police have not
Speaker 3: yet given any details about Wednesday night.
Speaker 2: Now, those are top stories for you this morning. Let's
Speaker 2: get to the market. So stop futures are heading lower
Speaker 2: for the US. We're down by three times of one
Speaker 2: percent for both the S and P and NOWSTA I
Speaker 2: many futures your stocks fishy futures are also down by
Speaker 2: seven tenths of one percent. That is being propelled by
Speaker 2: the headlines that we were discussing about President Trump handing
Speaker 2: out effectively letters possibly around tariff rates in the next
Speaker 2: couple of weeks. It also does mean that the dollar's weakening.
Speaker 2: We are down by three times of one percent on
Speaker 2: the Boomberg Dollar Spot Index. We had a number of
Speaker 2: winners including the Japanese and the Euro as well against
Speaker 2: that a softening dollar. Gold as people look for safe
Speaker 2: havens around the uncertainties, that has also done well, so
Speaker 2: by half of one percent for the gold Spot Prize,
Speaker 2: and also the tensions in the Middle East that have
Speaker 2: had an impact, it would seem on the oil markets.
Speaker 2: So we see breakthrough features down by four tens of
Speaker 2: one percent after we saw those prices jumping earlier on
Speaker 2: Thursday or earlier this morning.
Speaker 3: Any moment, we'll bring you more on our story on
Speaker 3: the ultra wealthy leaving London, plus the latest on what
Speaker 3: Donald Trump has said about tariffs. But another story that
Speaker 3: caught a eye this morning. If you're thinking about your
Speaker 3: summer travel plans, France had a particular spike in tourism
Speaker 3: last year of course linked to the Olympics one hundred
Speaker 3: million visitors last year, which was a record, And Lindsay
Speaker 3: Tremuta has been writing about some of the places that
Speaker 3: if you're planning a trip to Paris course razy journey
Speaker 3: on the Eerstar from London, maybe some places you might
Speaker 3: want to visit as well. I like this because it's
Speaker 3: it's quite easy, which I think is the yes, and
Speaker 3: takes advantage of high speed trains around France, I think,
Speaker 3: which is kind of a good option as well. So
Speaker 3: there's a chateau that's, you know, thirty five minutes from
Speaker 3: by from.
Speaker 2: Paris, this Paris Plus so you get to do the
Speaker 2: kind of museums and all the wonderful things in Paris,
Speaker 2: and then you take a little mini break somewhere else,
Speaker 2: although there is one further afield. And if you can't
Speaker 2: be bothered with the trains, where did you just hop
Speaker 2: on a flight down to the coach Desire which definitely
Speaker 2: speaks to me. Lero was one of the recommendations. But
Speaker 2: there are lots of lovely places. I mean, that's it's
Speaker 2: got this very dramatic salt water.
Speaker 3: The swimming piol carved into the rockside on the on
Speaker 3: the sea. So yeah, pretty spectacular views from there as well.
Speaker 3: Great piece and lindsay very inspirational for this Thursday Morning.
Speaker 3: Five French countryside escapes that para perfectly with Paris. Will
Speaker 3: put a link to the story in our show notes.
Speaker 2: Now, more than four four hundred business leaders have left
Speaker 2: the UK in the past year. This according to the
Speaker 2: latest Bloomberg analysis as Britain accounts the cost of scrapping
Speaker 2: the non dom tax status. Joining us now to discuss
Speaker 2: is our ultranet Worth reporter Benjamin estupples Ben good morning.
Speaker 2: So Bloomberg has analyzed five million company filing is to
Speaker 2: get to this point? What does it actually show?
Speaker 10: Yeah, good morning and credit to my colleague, are very
Speaker 10: talented colleague.
Speaker 1: Max Harlowe.
Speaker 10: That data analysis, what it really shows is that it
Speaker 10: signals that the disruption that's going on amid the UK
Speaker 10: business community. What it boils down to is the number
Speaker 10: of departures. Number of individuals business leaders disclosing that they
Speaker 10: are now living overseas was up from April twenty twenty five,
Speaker 10: about seventy five percent from a year ago and the
Speaker 10: highest in four years. And why is that important? That
Speaker 10: month the UK scrapped it's centuries old nond regime and
Speaker 10: that effectively allowed wealthy foreigners living in the UK to
Speaker 10: get tax breaks for as long as fifteen years under
Speaker 10: the system that existed up until only a few weeks ago.
Speaker 1: So what we can see is for the.
Speaker 10: First time a real attempt from us to ascertain the
Speaker 10: damage that's going on and the ripple effects they're going
Speaker 10: to continue for the foreseeable future at the very least.
Speaker 3: Yeah, of course, that that figure year on year, as
Speaker 3: you say, a massive increase for that particular month, which
Speaker 3: of course is related to the tax changes, but averaged
Speaker 3: over a year, it's an increase of around twenty percent
Speaker 3: on departures from those company director filings. The government has
Speaker 3: put forward the idea of that attacks the Rich policy
Speaker 3: would bring in more fresh tax revenue that at last
Speaker 3: from those people who are leaving.
Speaker 1: What are we seeing on that CSAR A good.
Speaker 10: Question, Stephen. This really boils down to one crucial data point.
Speaker 10: There're about seventy four thousand nondoms based on the latest
Speaker 10: government data, and if the biggest category within that group,
Speaker 10: if about if half of them go, then what the
Speaker 10: UK has tried to do on the non reforms will
Speaker 10: end up costing the government money. Now where where are
Speaker 10: we there now? Some advisors are seeing as we heard
Speaker 10: earlier just a few minutes ago from our colleague, some
Speaker 10: advisers are seeing maybe forty as many as forty percent
Speaker 10: of their clients possibly going. Some are seeing even more
Speaker 10: than more than half of their clients who've specialized in
Speaker 10: this space, and we interviewed them for our big take today.
Speaker 10: We're not there yet or we can see the official data.
Speaker 10: It will come out in at least a year's time.
Speaker 10: But what we're seeing on the ground, the witnesses in
Speaker 10: the private wealth community, an influential part of Britain services
Speaker 10: heavy workforce, they're seeing the damage right now.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and this is also goes to the nove It
Speaker 2: doesn't it that the official data comes out with a
Speaker 2: big time lag, So it's about you know, what do
Speaker 2: we know now how reliable the data is. There has
Speaker 2: also been a tweak as well from the government and
Speaker 2: a new four year tax system available to the most
Speaker 2: recent non dom arrival, so there's also a question mark
Speaker 2: about whether that change helps matters.
Speaker 1: Again, that's a good point.
Speaker 10: I think what we had before was fifteen years and
Speaker 10: now We've got four other countries that arrivals to the
Speaker 10: UK as wealth hubs, like Italy, Greece, Cyprus, they have
Speaker 10: fifteen year regimes as well. They basically copy and pasted
Speaker 10: the UK's former non dom regime, took the best parts
Speaker 10: out of it, and a UK has gone right, we're
Speaker 10: actually going to cut more than by half. So what's
Speaker 10: happening now is the UK has already been seen in
Speaker 10: this starkically different perspective. Whilst you might have come here,
Speaker 10: for example as a foreign individual, set up a business
Speaker 10: or run part of your business mpath from London, send
Speaker 10: your kids to school here fifteen years, you've got enough time.
Speaker 10: Now it's maybe being seen perversely, almost as like a
Speaker 10: divin end extraction zone. Come here, have a great time
Speaker 10: in London for four years, go to the West End,
Speaker 10: go toal museums. But four years, you know, you can't
Speaker 10: really get your kids through school in that time, but
Speaker 10: maybe you can sell a business.
Speaker 5: And by the.
Speaker 10: Way, it takes about a year to set up in
Speaker 10: the UK and maybe about a year to leave, so
Speaker 10: really it boils down to maybe about two years. So
Speaker 10: the UK has radically changed the way it's perceived by
Speaker 10: the globally mobile.
Speaker 3: Okay, Ben, thanks so much for bringing us details of
Speaker 3: your reporter this morning. Our alter net worth report of
Speaker 3: their bands doubles.
Speaker 2: Now let's get it to the latest on the US tariff.
Speaker 2: President Trump says that he will send letters in the
Speaker 2: next week or two on unilateral tariff raids to the
Speaker 2: US's trading partners. This ahead of the deadline of the
Speaker 2: ninth of July. It's only US now to discuss. Has
Speaker 2: been a big senior at US Economics and Government editor
Speaker 2: Derek Wallbank, Derek, good morning. President Trump seems to be
Speaker 2: moving away then from the idea of negotiating over trade
Speaker 2: with all of the US's different partners, as he had
Speaker 2: indicated before the.
Speaker 1: End of this ninety day period. Is fast approaching.
Speaker 7: Right that Trump had had put out all of the
Speaker 7: tariffs on Liberation Day, the ten percent global minimum baseline
Speaker 7: for almost every US trading partner, and then several more
Speaker 7: reciprocal tariffs calculated based on trade gap, and then the
Speaker 7: negotiations start. Right now, we've got the United Kingdom on
Speaker 7: the board, and after that we're still waiting for the
Speaker 7: next one to drop. There's several countries that are in
Speaker 7: advanced talks, India, Japan, there are others, but we're still
Speaker 7: waiting for these next deals to come. And the idea,
Speaker 7: I think has been from Trump administration officials that at
Speaker 7: some point, when you get close to the end of
Speaker 7: that window in early July, you might see a whole
Speaker 7: lot of them kind of go together. Maybe they might
Speaker 7: come in some of a similar form. And we're getting
Speaker 7: to the end of this process now now. I think
Speaker 7: that it has been a daunting thing to take on.
Speaker 7: I think every analyst that I've talked to has said
Speaker 7: that it is a sort of mission impossible to try
Speaker 7: and come up with, you know, ninety plus individual trade
Speaker 7: deals or however many it would wind up eventually being
Speaker 7: all in a ninety day period. At the same point,
Speaker 7: the Trump administration has to figure out what this end
Speaker 7: game is and what they're going to wind up with,
Speaker 7: what they're going to settle with, and how that's all
Speaker 7: going to work. I think that there has been a
Speaker 7: thought that that they're not signaling that there's going to
Speaker 7: be a massive extension. That is always possible, but this
Speaker 7: is all toward how do we get to this endgame?
Speaker 7: How do we try and wrap things up? And the
Speaker 7: idea that there might be some sort of template that
Speaker 7: everyone kind of draws from or hughes close to. I
Speaker 7: think that's kind of where this is signaling.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and look at, as you say, a lot of
Speaker 3: signals being read at this point, as it is a
Speaker 3: story that is evolving. Some of the signals we have
Speaker 3: gotten in the past twenty four hours have been around
Speaker 3: the progress made with China, Donald Trump saying that there
Speaker 3: was a deal done with China awaiting sign off.
Speaker 1: Do we know what's in it?
Speaker 7: If you listen to the exact words, it's sort of
Speaker 7: like a framework to implement a consensus reached in the
Speaker 7: Geneva talks, now decided in the London talks. It still
Speaker 7: has to go through and get signed off by Trump
Speaker 7: and she Trump is seeming very positive on this. We
Speaker 7: haven't heard the same exact thing from the Chinese side.
Speaker 7: That will take the time that it will take, but
Speaker 7: that's trying to get the Geneva agreements on track. We're
Speaker 7: also hearing, you know, from from Howard Lutnik and Jamison Greer,
Speaker 7: who were two of the key negotiators from the United States,
Speaker 7: that this is kind of intended to pave a way
Speaker 7: towards a resolution over rare earths and over magnets and
Speaker 7: things of that nature, and that that that in turn
Speaker 7: could unlock some things that the Chinese want as well.
Speaker 7: I think one of the big things that came out
Speaker 7: of Geneva, one of the one of the big sticking
Speaker 7: points with the implementation of easing the rare earth shipments
Speaker 7: and getting those sort of back on track. The US
Speaker 7: very much did not feel that China was living up
Speaker 7: to its agreements and rapidly escalated in response. Everything sort
Speaker 7: of went back went off track. Trump and you have
Speaker 7: a call, they go and talk for two days in London.
Speaker 7: Now that's kind of back on track. That's where we
Speaker 7: are in sort of this framework. Do we have text
Speaker 7: of that framework now, but that's what's been described to us.
Speaker 7: And the other thing that I should mention when I
Speaker 7: say that is that when the Chinese side came out
Speaker 7: and read out their version of what happened, and then
Speaker 7: when the American side came out, it wasn't that they
Speaker 7: were different. I mean, that's something we've talked about. We
Speaker 7: have to judge whether or not they're the same or different.
Speaker 7: But the US side has been way more expansive on
Speaker 7: what they say was in this the Chinese have very
Speaker 7: much stuck to the idea of tone tone.
Speaker 2: Yes, okay, that is an interesting point, isn't it. In
Speaker 2: terms of the concrete numbers, though, the tariff revenue that
Speaker 2: the US is generating is quite significant, a record twenty
Speaker 2: three billion dollars in May. That's also helped to shrink
Speaker 2: the deficit just for that one month. Again, it's quite
Speaker 2: uncertain about whether those revenue streams are reliable, whether they'll remain.
Speaker 7: Well, yeah, no, and that and that's that's one of
Speaker 7: the things that I think that Trump administration has been
Speaker 7: clear about that tariffs are an anchor of their revenue
Speaker 7: strategy as they're going forward. Trump has been really clear
Speaker 7: about this that tariffs were meant to help pay for
Speaker 7: his one big, beautiful bill of the tax cuts and
Speaker 7: other policy moves and uh and and they have been
Speaker 7: expecting big revenue to come in. Even as that is
Speaker 7: quite a large amount of revenue, it is, i should say,
Speaker 7: nowhere in the ballpark of being able to offset the
Speaker 7: costings the projected costings of the tariff bill or not
Speaker 7: the tariff bill of the tax bill. So that is
Speaker 7: that still remains a gap there. So so when you're
Speaker 7: when you're sitting there looking at this, that that winds
Speaker 7: up being a dis connects. So even as there is
Speaker 7: quite a lot of revenue brought in, it's not necessarily
Speaker 7: quite enough to do that offset. And it bears mention
Speaker 7: that these tariff collections are still not the fullness of
Speaker 7: what of what the Trump administration has talked about, has threatened,
Speaker 7: has put forward, because we have seen sort of again
Speaker 7: and again through the first you know, six month window
Speaker 7: of this administration, a lot of threats of where they're
Speaker 7: going to be, and then a pullback, and eventually they
Speaker 7: land somewhere much softer than where they were aiming to
Speaker 7: do so. So I think one of the things to
Speaker 7: look for as we go through here is that if
Speaker 7: all of this tariff level kind of settles out somewhere
Speaker 7: well short of where the administration had threatened, they're also
Speaker 7: not going to get the revenue that would be implied
Speaker 7: by those sort of maximalist tariff policies. This is Bloomberg
Speaker 7: Daybreak Europe, your morning brief on this worries making news
Speaker 7: from London to Wall Street and beyond.
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